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  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Really?
    14 Mar, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Another lurker, eh?
    14 Mar, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    She's a good old boat and she'll stay afloat
    Through the toughest gale and keep smilin'
    But for one more day, she would like to stay
    In the lee of Piper' Island

     

    I'm sailing down... the summer day
    Where the fish and seagulls play
    I put my troubles all away...

     

    And when the gale comes up, I'll fill my cup
    With the whiskey of the highlands
    She's a good old ship and she'll make the trip
    From the lee of Piper' Island...
    14 Mar, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Is it really Friday already. No news, but we're on to #314.
    Have a good weekend. Hope you folks still in winter's grip get a break sooooon.
    14 Mar, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    really close to the top, for a change . . . luck of the draw, i guess . . .
    14 Mar, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Why hydrogen-powered cars will drive Elon Musk crazy

     

    "Toyota, for instance, began its fuel cell program in 1992. Despite building perhaps the most successful hybrid electric car, the Prius, which paved the way for consumers to accept pure electric vehicles, Toyota has long been skeptical of electrics. “We see a way forward for commercializing fuel cells,” says Scott. “That’s why were bullish on this. We’re still having a hard time seeing costs come down for batteries.”"

     

    http://bit.ly/1lE1nOm
    14 Mar, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    >ii

     

    hydrogen makes a very useful process gas, but even there, it ain't no hydrocarbon

     

    todays 'public' hydrogen refuelling station costs more than donating Tesla model S-60 for the number of cars the hydrogen fueling station can service,
    free Teslas for all, that is the hydrogen infrastructure story.

     

    Hydrogen is great for Tesla, since the natural EV competitors are chasing a futile competitor (hydrogen).

     

    model $1.4million per station thats 20 Tesla S-60
    at $1.4million H2 station (upgrade costs only in attachment) supports 10 on road hydrogen vehicles
    http://1.usa.gov/Nfw9Rn slide 23

     

    Street lights transitioned from gas to electric...
    14 Mar, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Renim, I can appreciate what you are saying. And the filling stations aren't the biggest challenges.

     

    BTW, The chicken and egg thing can be said for pure electrics as well. Maybe in the end they will be more easily scaled but there are plenty of economic and infrastructure problems in the EV sector as well.

     

    My big interest is in Toyota's thoughts on battery costs. I think that's why they are pursuing other chemistries.

     

    If it was GM ranting and raving about battery costs it'd be one thing. But when the leader in vehicle electrification is throwing up flags it's another story.
    15 Mar, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    ii, Tesla been cash flow positive for the last 2 qtrs despite
    filling new export channels;
    deploying superchargers, now coast to coast USA;
    progressing Model X AWD & its production readiness;
    continuing Model S production ramp up;

     

    so the chicken and egg was solved.

     

    Toyota is the leader in vehicle hybridisation, and has chosen to be adversarial to vehicle electrification, but that is to Tesla advantage, after all, Panasonic is a big name in real fuel cells, yet they are supposedly stumping up 1giga$ for Tesla new battery factory. FWIW, rumour is Tesla can get cells at $160/kWh http://bit.ly/1kT7WiN

     

    OT
    CPT's electrified turbo is interesting, the e-motor's 65,000 rpm capability allows direct coupling to the turbo.
    15 Mar, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    In September of last year Lux Research wrote about the returning profitability of Panasonic's battery division and estimated that Panasonic booked $400 million in revenue for the cells in the first 16,000 copies of the Model S.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ixgLub

     

    That works out to $25,000 per vehicle or $294 per kWh.

     

    Since Lux doesn't have an agenda to promote, it is very specific in describing what its numbers represent and it doesn't hide behind a veil of anonymity, I tend to view it as a well-informed, unbiased and credible source.
    15 Mar, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    JP
    Trendforce http://bit.ly/1d1Ufvy tracks the price of batteries
    Q4'13 18650 batteries averaged 69c per Ah for 3Ah class batteries (proxy for Tesla S-60) and 89c per Ah for 3.2Ah class batteries (proxy for Tesla S-85)

     

    for the Tesla S-60 capacity battery ~ 3Ah class ie about $185/kWh as a first approximation
    http://bit.ly/1gl6gHZ

     

    the $160/kWh rumour seems to have more substance than the $294/kWh report

     

    obviously other formats are significantly more expensive, as are applications that can't scale to CE volumes...

     

    Since Trendforce doesn't have an agenda to promote, it is very consistent in describing what its numbers represent and it doesn't hide behind a veil of anonymity, I tend to view it as a well-informed, unbiased and credible source.
    15 Mar, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Please feel free to accept the evidence you find most credible and persuasive. One of the first things lawyers learn is that reasonable men can consider the same evidence and reach different conclusions. Juries do it all the time.

     

    Heck, some of us even believed OJ was guilty.
    15 Mar, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Renim, I'll believe TSLA isn't anything more than a pyramid scheme when they are in their 2nd year of a high volume vehicle selling well and profitable. Until then it is nothing more than "Stone Soup" with Elon being the best soup maker I've ever witnessed. With people willing to continue to sponsor his efforts throwing in billions of USD's he has all kinds of latitude to show an Elon profit.

     

    I will however say that this admission will be retracted if the government is still stupid enough to be the ultimate lender/sponsor of last resort for his efforts.
    15 Mar, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3884) | Send Message
     
    Wonder how long Vinod Khosla and Bill Gates think commercializing the Ecomotors OPOC engine will take.

     

    http://bit.ly/1kSgEOg

     

    325 hp from a 296 lb engine running at 3,500 rpm
    http://bit.ly/1kSgGpu

     

    A video illustrating operation of two OPOC engines linked by an electrically controlled clutch.
    http://bit.ly/1kSgEOh
    14 Mar, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    D- inv
    "Wonder how long Vinod Khosla and Bill Gates think commercializing the Ecomotors OPOC engine will take."

     

    6 years.
    The first factory is supposed to start producing this year.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iPzSEn

     

    "The factory will be the first in the world building EcoMotor’s “opoc,” opposed piston, opposed cylinder engine, at a commercial scale. When it starts production in 2014, the factory will aim to produce 150,000 engines per year. There’s also an adjacent site that could expand production to 400,000 engines per year down the road."

     

    also
    Bill Gates-backed EcoMotors buys fellow metro Detroit-based engine tech firm Katech

     

    "EcoMotors also recently announced a $200 million joint venture with First Auto Works Jingye Engine Company, a subsidiary of First Auto Works, to develop, build, sell and service the OPOC engine in China’s Shanxi Province next year."

     

    "DETROIT, MI – Allen Park-based EcoMotors, Inc. has acquired Clinton Township-based Katech, Inc. for an undisclosed price. Both companies specialize in engine technologies, and EcoMotors said in a release that it will leverage Katech’s expertise on this front to further the company’s growth.

     

    “The purchase of Katech will significantly grow EM’s ability to bring things from design to life at a rapid pace, taking us further down the path of redefining how the world is powered,” Amit Soman , EM president and chief operating officer, said in the release. “With this, we are adding a remarkable team with a long-standing reputation for high quality and a proven track record in the space.” "

     

    http://bit.ly/1iPzSUA

     

    Unlimited money and big names behind you does help.
    15 Mar, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (944) | Send Message
     
    A friend of a friend is making calls to Axion on behalf of the major Wall Street financial services company he works for to discuss future financing needs. He believes it is a "homerun".

     

    These efforts by individual shareholders are of value for the company and I encourage anyone else who has contacts in the investment community to be a soapbox for (OTCQB:AXPW).
    14 Mar, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    "He believes it is a "homerun"."

     

    Patrick> Could you clarify? Not sure what that's supposed to mean exactly (even though it sounds pretty good).
    15 Mar, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    PY,

     

    A home run for Wall Street is usually a steep discount to pps. Imho, we need Quercus type green fund that wants to partner for the long haul. But yes I have inquired with some I-Banker friends and the pound of flesh they normally exact from micro-caps makes Axion's last PIPE deal seem mundane.
    15 Mar, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (717) | Send Message
     
    I still say we form an LLC and get in the game...buying, say, $2M worth of shares at a discount and getting a nice stack of warrants is just too appealing for me.
    If I had something like $10M laying around I would be inclined to do it (along with starting an energy storage index fund).
    15 Mar, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    bazoooka> While every company I've ever represented had to go through a couple rounds of vulture finance, those that survived their dance with the devil without sacrificing their IP or selling their souls earned the respect of higher tier firms that are more interested in investment potential than gaming potential.

     

    In my experience, the market gamers never talk about home runs because they make their living hitting singles, not long balls. When you find an investment banker who talks about home runs, he's usually planning to be around for a while.
    15 Mar, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    The only way I see keeping the "vultures" at bay is for TG to have an ace up his sleeve. This time he'll have to show his cards and take the pot down earlier or he'll get caught bluffing or waiting for an out like last time. Not to mention price needs to run more since VWAP and discounts to market will surely be the norm (again). Nobody wants to expand share count by another 100M shares.
    15 Mar, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I can only tell you about the paths I've walked and offer a relevant recent example.

     

    On February 1st ZBB closed at $0.73 after trading in the mid-$0.50s in November. Yesterday they did a straight equity offer that was priced at $2.25. The price was a 30% discount from Thursday's close, but it was 300% of the trading price at the beginning of last month.

     

    ZBB will be almost as healthy after the offering as Axion is today. Unlike ZBB, Axion hasn't had to license away continent sized swaths of its IP to get to this point.
    15 Mar, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    ZBB has sales. Axion needs to sell batteries or die.
    17 Mar, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    ZBB's last Form 10-Q reported 3 and 6 month sales of $961,456 and $2,030,578 respectively.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1fCDe5w

     

    Axion's last Form 10-Q reported 3 and 9 month sales of $2,185,699 and $7,111,812 respect/ively.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1dvGcKk

     

    Do you want to reconsider that argument?
    17 Mar, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Touche, John. I love it when you counter emotion-based conjecture with fact.
    17 Mar, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    How much of that was PbC batteries? Sales on the toll contract are thanks to the benevolence of East Penn. Since you are using ZBB as an example of potential stock growth for Axion, you shouldn't rely on the toll contract since that is not where the potential sales growth will come from.

     

    My simple point is that those "significant sales" need to start materializing before we see the kind of explosive stock price growth that ZBB is currently enjoying.
    17 Mar, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Three and nine month sales for non-toll batteries were approximately $371,350 and $962,500, respectively.

     

    I disagree with your belief that the market will remain flat without significant sales, but the next two weeks should prove one of us right. I'm more than happy to wait and watch. Let's revisit the issue a day or two before the Form 10-K is filed.
    17 Mar, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    And I will be more than happy to be proven wrong.
    17 Mar, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP & nogoodslacker ... Suggested mantra for the Axion investing community; "Like sands through the hourglass so are the days of our lives."
    17 Mar, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    Great game against Kentucky Patric, now take us to the final 4. JK. Glad to hear some investment firms see some sparklers in the AXPW ashes. Just keeps me hanging on.

     

    Finding those small nuggets that other don't see, is the origin of the "home run," Exactly what I'm trying to see!
    17 Mar, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    profound DR! bring on the sunny day!
    17 Mar, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2101) | Send Message
     
    Sands so dear for us
    Watching, trickling, yearning, that
    News is near for us.
    17 Mar, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    uhhh . . . mixing Axionista's sentiment and daytime soaps seems akin to mixing anti-depressants with quaaludes.

     

    I'm not sure what will happen, but it won't be good to watch or experience . . .
    17 Mar, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2101) | Send Message
     
    We might become comfortably numb....
    17 Mar, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    ... but we may feel a little sick . . .
    18 Mar, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    Trucks, Trains and Automobiles, it's in a string and it's in there.
    14 Mar, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    Rick -->> On the Axion PbC recharge rate, I see what you are driving at. It is easy to get ahead of oneself in sorting
    through this stuff.

     

    The test details can be found in the Axion white paper from 2011. The test itself is known as DKE EN-50341-6. The test battery is discharged to 80% and at that point it is at 10 volts. Every 500 cycles, the battery is rested for six hours at open circuit. (Elswhere in Axion's paperwork, they say a rest time off 7 hours was used.) The test is set to be conducted at 26 degrees celsius or 79 degrees farenheit.

     

    Axion did conduct the test for 10,000 cycles at -10 degrees celsius or 14 degrees farenheit. The results at -10 degrees
    were only slightly more than the results for 26 degrees.

     

    The 100,000 cycle test conducted at 26 degrees celsius was stopped at the cutoff voltage of 4 volts. Max DCA by that time would seem to be about 77 amps. The charge time throughout the full 103,637 cycles was les than 50 seconds.

     

    The graph in Figure 11 on page 5 or 6 gives good detail.

     

    It would be helpful to locate the test data for Axion's test in which they did a 100? percent depth of discharge for 2,500
    cycles.
    14 Mar, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    It is unbelievable that we are on to #315. We blew through 314 in one day with no new news.
    14 Mar, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    ARGE -->> The graphic shown in the UltraBattery article that you linked is a graphic describing the tech of the UltraBattery - nothing to do with the Axion PbC. I spotted this very same graphic with the exact same captions in two research reports that I have. The first report is from the World Electric Vehicle Journal, 2009, and is about the Ultrabattery. The second report is from Sandia in 2011, also containing info on the Ultra Battery.
    14 Mar, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I'm not entirely sure which graphic you're talking about, but the plate composition schematic that shows a lead-acid cell on the top left, an ultracapacitor cell on the top right and an Ultrabattery centered below the two does in fact depict the PbC, which uses the cell design they've labeled as an ultracapacitor.

     

    If you go back to the foundation patents for the PbC, it is described as an asymmetric double layer electrochemical capacitor; a hybrid that's half lead-acid battery and half supercapacitor.

     

    In the battery world every change in cell architecture and composition involves trade offs where something is sacrificed and something else is gained.

     

    On the sacrifice side, replacing the sponge lead negative electrode with carbon significantly reduces the chemically active lead mass within the cell thereby reducing total available energy.

     

    On the benefits side, replacing the sponge lead negative electrode with carbon eliminates sulfation, the principal failure mechanism for lead-acid batteries, and gives the PbC off-the-charts charge acceptance and cycle life.

     

    Depending on what you want a particular battery to do, the PbC can be a very good choice or a very poor choice. In electric cars that need lots of energy and not much power the PbC is a poor choice because of its low specific energy. In hybrid vehicles and other rapid cycling high-power applications, the PbC is hard to beat.
    15 Mar, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (717) | Send Message
     
    For a point of reference
    http://bit.ly/1h71ZcA

     

    User393748, yea, I got that it was about the UB, but the graph was saying Ultra capacitor when it was clearly a PbC.
    The PbC was also mentioned in the 1st comment.
    Seems to me that in storage a PbC and a LA battery together would work better than two UBs.
    15 Mar, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    ARGE, The block diagram you are referencing is the method that the owners of the Ultrabattery license are using to depict the function of their offering. It has the ability to store both electrochemical and electrostatic energy. So in effect it is a PbC in sheep's clothing. We do not know its strengths and weaknesses fully as the Ultrabattery team is like the PbC team and they are only publishing so much information. Actually Axion has shared more information than has been shared on the Ultrabattery.

     

    An Ultrabattery will not function the same as a PbC directly in parallel with a LAB. There are interactions when the two are married as they are. All the variants will have their place at the table depending on application requirements. In fact the Ultrabattery demonstration project in New Mexico is a hybrid of Ultrabatteries and LABs.
    15 Mar, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    ARGE & JP -->> Thanks for the replies. I should have have added that although the graphic does show an ultracapacitor component, which as you properly mention does apply to both the PbC and the UB, it may be that that comparison should be limited to its use in a generic sense.

     

    There are significant differences in the various carbon based electrode materials being applied to battery developments. An appreciable range in the performance characteristics and obtained results in the carbon electrode field is apparent. Some carbon based electrode materials work quite poorly, while others are much more fit for the task. At present, activated carbon made from coconut shells is the pick
    of the litter when it comes to choosing a carbon based material for a battery.

     

    We know that the PbC uses activated carbon from coconut shells, but I am not aware of what the UB
    uses as its carbon based component ultracapacitor. So, in my humble reading of that article, I was hesitant to stray too far afield in drawing too close a comparison between the PbC and the UB. They both use carbon based material, they both have an ultracapacitive element, but other than that, futher required details on the UB ultracapacitor component for analytical purposes are lacking .

     

    However, the article did provide me with another piece of the UB puzzle which did allow me to dig up
    a little more info on it.

     

    JP -->> From a basic design point of view, before the application of serious first principles, yes, I would agree the graphic depicts a basic PbC structure.

     

    Again, such are the foibles of posting late in the day when time is running short.
    15 Mar, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The architecture of the Ultrabattery's carbon electrode has always been a mystery to me. This photo from mid-2008 left me with a clear impression that they started with a standard lead-grid and then coated the surface with carbon like a chocolate covered ice-cream bar.

     

    http://aol.it/1d23Ger

     

    Try as I might, I've never been able to drill down any deeper into the architecture or manufacturing methods. When I compare the little I know about the Ultrabattery's carbon electrode with the PbC's electrode assembly, the complexity and sophistication of the PbC electrodes seem to be an order of magnitude higher.
    15 Mar, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    When you mentioned the chocolate bar aspect of how the negative electrode was manufactured I started thinking about how it might relate to Axion's PbC technology. If the negative electrode is in fact layered with a perfect coating of activated carbon and there was some form of coating on the lead core to disallowing the lead from participating in the electrochemical storage of energy but allowing electron transfer, well then it would just be Axion's PbC. It would have better or worse internal resistance based on their carbon mixture and worse resistance based on the lead being a poor conductor vs copper. All in all still a clear violation of Axions patents.

     

    If the lead is allowed to participate in the storage of energy then the question becomes how does it degrade based on its interaction with the carbon and the lead? Way outside of my abilities to determine this.

     

    I remain convinced that Axion's biggest opportunity to fail is as a result of the Ultrabattery. I do think that Axion has something that is unique for apps that really need it and the Ultrabattery will not suffice. But I also think there is a level of overlap for the two technologies that, with East Penns clout, is neutering Axion in the near term.

     

    I consider Axion's relationship with East Penn to be a double edged sword with Axion showing scars.
    15 Mar, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps East Penn hopes to offer a suite of storage solutions ranging from inexpensive energy (flooded/AGM) to expensive, high-performance power (PbC via Axion) with Ultrabattery occupying a middle-ground, compromise solution for less power-intensive applications.
    15 Mar, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Well, If we assume East Penn doesn't want to go into automotive what does the relationship bring to Axion?

     

    Axion has enough scale for NSC and I can't see any other RR working w/ Axion in parallel or jumping in front of NSC. This in spite of what TG has said. They may query Axion but to take the lead? Why?

     

    Axion has enough scale for grid storage until they can show any signs of the market taking off for their technology. Same holds true for residential or behind the meter. Telcom too.

     

    I just can't see a need for East Penn and Axion getting together and the market supporting both of their profit margin requirements.

     

    I think Axion needs to find someone to license their tech. to for automotive and take that money to scale the balance. Or better yet have manufacturing agreements to have them support the rest. Like a contract manufacturer. Automotive is just not going to deliver what Axion needs on the bottom line but it will provide them paths to riches based on the need for nutrition SOON.

     

    Tin cupping on Wall Street is killing them. And a year as a commercial entity with the level of sales they have thus far should be a clear sign that they need to make some adjustments soon. Not much time to waste before they set themselves up for another back alley beating. If they don't have time to maneuver they will once again be a wounded animal thrashing around in shark infested waters.

     

    This next quarterly meeting is going to be a come to Jesus event for Axionistas. Especially if he doesn't have a bounce in his step backed up with something solid. It's going to take some real back bone to hold Axion for the last few months before they need money hoping for a sea change in their fortunes.
    15 Mar, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    John and IINDelco,
    I'm not sure exactly what I am looking at in the link John shared on the UB. If the first image is that of the UB's negative electrode, then it doesn't look like a chocolate covered ice cream bar to me, but a lead electrode that has a checker board covering of carbon painted on it, such that the individual carbon squares are separated by boarders of lead. Is that not what I'm seeing, or is the image of something other than the negative electrodes?
    17 Mar, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The checkerboard pattern is typical in a lead electrode grid. When it's run through the factory a sponge lead paste is forced into all the holes and the resulting plate is dried and cured before it's built into a battery.

     

    In a conventional battery the lead grid provides structural stability and the sponge lead paste is the chemically active part.

     

    I dimly recall seeing pictures that looked like the coating was applied to a pasted electrode, which would provide a much larger surface area than merely coating a grid, but I couldn't find any examples.

     

    In any case my best guess is that the UB uses a carbon coating on a conventional lead core.
    17 Mar, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I can't add anything more to what John is indicating and I've never seen a good picture of their negative electrode. Too bad someone doesn't post on line their tear down analysis of the UB. I'm sure if you can buy one more than a few have done so.
    17 Mar, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Understood. My questions is more to the image you provided.

     

    http://aol.it/1d23Ger

     

    To me, the first part of the image, with the technician in the lab coat, seems to have a series of negative electrodes laid out of the bench. These seem to have dark squares where I would normally associate the lead paste is injected into the grid. However, whenever I've seen a finished lead electrode, it looks like a smooth sheet of lead, not one that you can see the grid through. I have only seen signs of the grid again when you look at an electrode taken from an old battery, where the electrode is falling apart. So if that is true, I take the black squares I am seeing in the image to be black carbon that has been applied to the electrode after the electrode has been baked (especially since there seems to be a line of square down the middle that is darker than the others). I'm not even sure that the black squares perfectly line up with the grid, since I think the grids are usually made up of rectangles, and by not having the squares line up with the grid you wouldn't need the charge from the lead to go through via the grid, but to go through in the lead paste areas that aren't covered in carbon. Either way, I still take the image to show how the carbon is applied to a negative electrode in an Ultrabattery. IMHO.
    17 Mar, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I think what you're seeing is a black grid with the table top visible through the orifices. The description in the EU patent application (http://bit.ly/1fTQY0B) for the Ultrabattery says:

     

    Generally, as with the lead and lead oxide electrodes, the capacitor electrode comprises a metal grid (usually made from a lead alloy) and a pasted coating containing the capacitor electrode material, usually with a binder. Examples of suitable binders for the paste compositions are carboxymethyl cellulose and neoprene.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fTQY0B

     

    Interestingly, this UltraBattery Patent List from Furukawa (http://bit.ly/1fTQY0H) pales in comparison to the 13 issued US patents identified on page 59 of Axion's recent 424b3 prospectus (http://1.usa.gov/1lfuaZA).
    17 Mar, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    You know, I could be wrong about what I'm seeing. If I look at the image blown up, what those plates actually seem to be is a grid with holes in it.
    So here's a crazy question. I've seen electrode grids being advertised before that were made of carbon instead of lead. Any chance we've got it wrong and the UB doesn't use carbon coated onto the lead electrode, but instead is using a carbon grid that is then filled in with lead paste?
    17 Mar, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The patent application clearly speaks of a metal grid with a capacitive paste. Doing it the other way around would make it almost impossible for the electrolyte to access the carbon core to create a capacitive effect.
    17 Mar, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    John thanks for the comments and corrections. I've just never seen lead grids that looked that dark before (must be part of the "alloy" they describe). It made me think they were made of something other than lead.
    17 Mar, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    For all the whining over Axion's lack of technical transparency, we know far more about the PbC and its construction than we do about the magical black box Ultrabattery.
    17 Mar, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    If "everyone" thinks of the PbC as an ultracapacitor cell, why is that a problem? What are its competitors when considered in that setting? Does it get the "correct" attention when presented that way?
    Is this what is holding it back, people are thinking about it in the wrong way?
    15 Mar, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The PbC is a hybrid device that's part ultracapacitor and part battery. As a result it has some but not all of the performance characteristics of both classes of energy storage devices. It's not a perfect drop in replacement for either class of device, and therein lies the rub and the opportunity.

     

    Historically manufacturers have designed and built devices that used either a battery or an ultracapacitor because they were the only available choices. The energy storage universe was like a toolbox that only had hammers and screwdrivers.

     

    When Axion showed up with the PbC, storage users scratched their heads and asked "What can I do with a wrench that I can't do with a hammer or a screwdriver?"

     

    The answer is plenty, but before anybody can use a wrench effectively they need to be educated about the differences. Then they have to build a new class of device that doesn't use nails or screws to hold things together, and uses bolts instead.

     

    Historically the manufacturing world was forced to use nails or screws because there were no other available tools. Now the manufacturers need to learn how to use a completely different class of tool and it takes time.
    15 Mar, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1445) | Send Message
     
    Great analogy. Amazingly the stock market doesn't think the innovator and owner of wrench technology has much potential.
    15 Mar, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    So true, but neither do the screwdriver and hammer crowd!
    17 Mar, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Last year I spent so much time travelling that I didn't have a chance to keep up with all the Concentrators.

     

    Of late I have been trying to find commentary on the ASME update report that is mentioned in the header. It's available for $25 from http://bit.ly/1fzr5hS
    but I wonder if anyone has obtained it, discussed it, found it worth the cost?, etc. I searched many Concentrators from the October time-frame, but have yet to locate discussion of what's inside the joint report.
    15 Mar, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    SCORE! White boy jumps through hoops!
    FYI, I'm all squared away on this, thanks to iindelco.
    15 Mar, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    This is the first departure from the 10 year geometric decay regression line that came with low volatility and it's been 5 months and 15 days in the works.

     

    [IMG]http://bit.ly/1nsOhIx[/IMG]
    15 Mar, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Really, Barood? I see several departures of equal or longer duration on that graph, both above and below the trend line. But it always returns to the downward trend. So, not sure what you think the significance is. The only thing that will get them permanently off of that trend is if they start selling some batteries.
    15 Mar, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Re read my post, it is the first with low volatility, Mr Really!

     

    Your hypocrisy make me laugh, you were warning every body how Axion's next financing gonna put it to bankruptcy and how I lack experience of such situations, only to see you sell MXWL and buy AXPW, hypocrisy at its best. LOL

     

    Proud owner of 500K shares at 8 pennies average.
    15 Mar, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    NGS: He might have something going there. I'm uneducated in these things but check the correlation on this price chart, running 72%/73% on three of the trend lines the spreadsheet generates.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Compare to the current one where correlation has dropped to the low 6x% range.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Of course I'm not as optimistic about the divergence holding as I've seen these many times before and after a while the price seems to move much more than the trend lines and ends up joining with the trend lines again.

     

    Before we started this last big fall we'd seen some correlations in the 9x% and 8x% ranges several times over a couple years. But our price action slowly beat those foolish lines into submission! :-))

     

    But, as I say, not educated.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    One heck of a scoop at 8 cents. Did it take a few days/ weeks to accumulate?
    15 Mar, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Barood: with due respect, I doubt you have a basis at 8c, since it never traded there. It had momentarily traded 8 point something, but this was highly transitory.

     

    If you had said 9 or 10, I might have given it more credence....
    15 Mar, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    OR,

     

    I have sold some at 21 cents, it was 100% return and it lowered my average to 8 cents.
    15 Mar, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    that can be helpful, certainly. but it seems an imaginary number at some point, but well played nonetheless.
    15 Mar, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    <<<I have sold some at 21 cents, it was 100% return and it lowered my average to 8 cents.>>>>

     

    ok... now I believe it even less... sorry... your math doesn't make sense. But I'm happy you are long AXPW, none the less.

     

    Here's to hoping for .50c again!!

     

    Cheers!
    16 Mar, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    If I bought 1000 shares at $.10 and then sold 200 of them at $.20, I'd own 800 net shares with an out-of-pocket cost of $60.
    16 Mar, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Same scenario, but instead sell 800 at $0.20 and you now own 200 shares with a cost basis of -$0.30.
    16 Mar, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    The trade is dead, long live the trade!
    16 Mar, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Ok... fair enough... he's using his profit on his "trading shares" to discount his cost basis on his remaining shares. Fair enough.

     

    I stand corrected, Barood!
    16 Mar, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    It remains to be seen what Axion's next financing will do, but I believe the term I used was "liquidity crisis." If you normalize your volatility as a proportion of share price, I suspect your projection of declining volatility will not seem so low. You claim to be some kind of statistical prediction expert, but all you are doing is fitting a line through a noisy signal and spouting BS about it.
    17 Mar, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday's EOD stuff.

     

    03/12/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 147, MinTrSz: 70, MaxTrSz: 104850, Vol: 1203494, AvTrSz: 8187
    Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1562
    # Buys, Shares: 56 328428, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1569
    # Sells, Shares: 90 870066, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1559
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1600
    Buy:Sell 1:2.65 (27.29% "buys"), DlyShts 146037 (12.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.78%

     

    Over the last couple days I said the action reinforced the assessment that the run up was done for the near-term, I thought we'd see prices start to tail off in the next couple of days, my favorite short-term target was a “reversion to the mean”, in this case around $0.16-$0.165 or so, and so far it's moving as expected with a large volume reduction and narrower spread and lower price ranges.

     

    Today's $0.15-$0.175 spread puts us in the ballpark where we should start to see consolidation “firm up” for a little bit. A normal part of this process would be a little up and down movement in the price range with volume slightly volatile, but generally trending to the low side. If it's really a consolidation we should also see the traditional TA oscillators trend towards neutral readings. Which way it's going to move out of consolidation is definitely uncertain this early in the process, but sans “big news” a move towards the falling 200-day SMA, $0.1344 today, would not surprise me.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766 and $0.0767 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1250 vs. $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779 and $0.0773 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -13.09%, -6.42%, -13.18%, 26.64% and -65.31% respectively. Price spread today was 16.67% vs. 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14% and 5.26% on prior days.

     

    Today's $0.16 close was *again* below both the prior close, $0.1752, and today's open, $0.1726. This is already starting to look like a trend lower, rather than consolidation. But it's really too soon to conclude that's the case.

     

    Full stochastic is ...

     

    The rest of the usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I think we gonna have another push up to the .30 area or till the 50MA approaches 200MA, that's when the pull back will happen to the .15-.16 area.

     

    It's just a call on my end, could be wrong.
    15 Mar, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I've sent new graphs to APH and its my hope that the header of this Concentrator will be updated soon. The comments I included with the new graphs said:

     

    • On the volume graph, the 10-day hit an all time high of 2,714,580 last week, eclipsing the previous all time high of 2,620,720 in October 2013. Since June 2011, the 200-day average volume has climbed from 232,885 (0.27% of outstanding shares) to 1,113,273 (0.52% of outstanding shares).

     

    • On the price graph, the 10-day and 20-day both moved up through the 200-day, setting up a classic golden cross that was confirmed when the 50-day also turned up.

     

    • On the FINRA short graph, volume for the first half of March is within 2.3 million shares of total volume for February and exceeded total volume for 2010. Cumulative volume in Q1-13 is within spitting distance of total volume for 2011.

     

    • On the APC Comment graph, we’ve hit an all-time high of 176 for my 5 edition daily moving average, eclipsing the previous high of 174 in August 2012.
    15 Mar, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    There is a good chance price is experiencing power law scaling. The first rise to .23 was power law exponent of .41. Theoretically the second rise exponent can be 0.73 and which leads to .37 cents rise in price or nominal price of 52 cents.

     

    IMO, if the price is truly experiencing a new regime, the odds are high for power scaling and target of 52 cents in this second rise.
    15 Mar, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    A $0.37 price would give Axion a $75 million market capitalization and make it eligible to register a new offering on Form S-3 instead of doing an unregistered offering followed by a resale registration statement.

     

    As a general rule, the terms of registered deals like Axion's 2012 offering are far gentler than the terms of unregistered deals like the PIPE.
    15 Mar, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    I enjoy these Concentrators for the DD input from so many. I wasn't kidding when I said I usually hear it hear first. It's a rare event when it's otherwise, so here I am.

     

    Over time (didn't take that much to suspect) I have come to realize that I am a small fry, a worker bee, a bit player, amongst the major leaguers here. Folks buying $8000 at a drop. What are you, nuts? :)
    Nonetheless, I'm an intelligent and accomplished chemist able to digest and extrapolate the available data. I think the battery has only on few occasions been over-hyped here and I have never considered this site to be about pump-and-dump.

     

    While I can read an annual report, the minutia of the prospectii I receive are, and will likely remain for quite awhile, inscrutable. I had no idea about this 75 million MKT CAP insight. This is information which is historically unavailable to those of my caste and vocation. I mean, I work for a living - it is NOT POSSIBLE to know everything.

     

    Someone said they thought many Axionistas were "full" of shares. What? Are you kidding? It's at 15 cents, ppl! Damn paychecks don't come quick enough for me!

     

    OK, to my point. My thanks to JP for this legaleeze input. And the rest as well. Just sayin'.
    15 Mar, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Does the offering have to go off at the price which equates to a minimum 75 market cap.

     

    Or does trading above 75 million for a certain period of time allow an S-3 offering even if the presumed placement (ex .25 at 4 millions shares) could knock Axion back below a 75 million cap since the pps usually gravitates toward the offering price .
    15 Mar, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Good question, bazoo, which everyone now knows I couldn't have come up with myself, but I get it.
    15 Mar, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> The registration statement has to be filed during a period when the market cap exceeds $75 million, but the pricing does not have to meet that level.

     

    Axion filed an S-3 in early 2011 when a transitory price spike took its market cap into the $100 million range. It didn't use the registration statement until February 2012 when it's market cap was closer to $50 million.
    15 Mar, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    "Folks buying $8000 at a drop. What are you, nuts? :)"

     

    I suspect some of us aren't very diversified.

     

    But what I really want to know is how Patrick was able to accumulate so many shares AND a house at such a young age!
    15 Mar, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • hschindler
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    I like where your head's at Barood
    16 Mar, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    JP: Now I have more "color" as to why Granville stated the following back at the 2011 Shareholders Conference (The following extraction was written by me in the first edition of "Notes And More From The 2011 Axion Shareholders Conference"):

     

    --I believe the vote that took place today about adding common shares up to 200,000,000 will pass. Granville said Axion does not currently need money. He does not expect the offering to occur within the next two months. The ability to have the shelf offering, which this time will be public rather than private, will expire on March 15, 2012. Granville stated that if the offering does occur, if Axion needs more money, it will be after a, "Price spike," he said, getting the valuation over $75,000,000. That's potentially a tradeable barometer, for those whom want to trade rather than hold this stock.

     

    ####

     

    So if/when Axion's market cap approaches $75M, the "tradable barometer" is still in play.
    16 Mar, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    It's certainly a market capitalization I'd want to see if I was standing in the shoes of management or counsel. I don't believe its anywhere near a reasonable value, but it's a good first step toward a reasonable value.
    16 Mar, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Funny I remember thinking back then "why is TG only hoping for 75M"; seems like a short change. Now I think - "wow that'd be nice if we could get there" anytime soon. Twas a good write-up back in the more optimistic days of 2011.
    16 Mar, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Barood: I've been eyballing that 50-dat SMA too. If we succeed in at least consolidating at this level for a while the 50 will start to rise rapidly as the 200 falls, offering the possibility of a "Golden Cross".

     

    The hard part is not knowing if the sentiment has been so jaded that traditional TA folks (thinking momo traders and their ilk here) will view it with skepticism or respond to it in the traditional fashion.

     

    Right now I'm more watchful of the Bollinger bands as a reversion to the mid-point when extremes have been pushed is common. But the Bolingers haven't begun the adjustments needed to estimate a likely mid-point within a reasonable time-frame yet. As of Friday, the spread is still horrendous, $0.0520-$0.196. If the move to mid-point were tomorrow, which I don't expect, we get planted at ~$0.12.

     

    As to a move to $0.30 ...

     

    I'm doubtful. This whacky push we had on *no* news of *any* kind was stupid. Look what happened in the sector as a whole, which others have commented upon. Things have a nasty habit of returning to normal.

     

    Without sales, without mania in the sector, the only support comes from expectations of "someday ..." and JP's reports from ePower.

     

    That's a thin gruel when everyone *knows* another financing round is in the cards and this one still has a couple more payments left on it (please correct me if I'm wrong on that last point ... If I'm wrong on other points, please DON'T! ;-)) ).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Mar, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what charts you're considering part of the entire sector HTL, but CBAK, HPJ, MXWL and ZBB are running like scalded cats. By my count, that's fully half of the pure play energy storage universe.
    16 Mar, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    JP: That's my point - they are running like that on what?

     

    I'm seeing this as mania in the sector.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Mar, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I'm seeing it as a reversion through the mean after several years of brutal undervaluation precipitated by the catastrophic failures of the darlings of the lithium-ion battery industry.

     

    The entire point is that market values in the sector haven't been fair for years unless you were a holder of JCI and Enersys.

     

    Remember the Pendulum. Over the long-term, stock prices do not revert To a mean. They revert THROUGH the mean to an equal and opposite state.
    16 Mar, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Your point is supported by the charts I just looked at - fairly strong correlation from around late February through now, with the strongest being with HPJ and MXWL I guess. Prior to that time ZBB had the strongest correlation.

     

    But reversion through the mean implies, to me anyway, another swing coming.

     

    And that leads me back to "things have a nasty habit of returning to normal", the question being, of course, what is normal.

     

    For a sector, or group of companies it might be one thing and for an individual symbol it might be something else.

     

    Unless "big money" has suddenly discovered AXPW I suspect or normal may be unique to AXPW.

     

    I'll never know though.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Mar, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Take a good hard look at the three-year charts and the across-the-board punishment throughout the sector. The sequential failures of C&D, Beacon, A123 Ener1 and Valence, coupled with allegations of impropriety at ABAT and CRTP scared the crap out of everyone and even the survivors were punished for sins they didn't commit. Exide just added fuel to the fire.

     

    I believe the long term means were breached by fear three and four years ago, not three or four months ago. When the pendulum swings, it will be to multi-year highs.

     

    This is not a mania. It's a return to sanity.
    16 Mar, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting JP
    17 Mar, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Funny, JP. My 5 shares of Beacon Power are up 24.14% today. ;-)
    17 Mar, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    zooooks: Thanks. When I heard that Axion was, "About To Take Flight," as was the intro to the 2012 SC, and now it's 2014, I can only wonder where Axion is on the tarmac.

     

    My plain guess is that Axion Power is closer to the gate, than taking off.

     

    And yet, there are seemingly...sneaky signs...

     

    What's lately coming in from China to New Castle intrigues me, and, as you know, TG has mentioned China a couple of times.
    18 Mar, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    Even more interesting would be what is going from New Castle to China. Orders?
    18 Mar, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I just published a brief progress update on our work at ePower Engine Systems for those who are interested in such things.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Mar, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2101) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP.

     

    Looks like steady progress. We really appreciate the frequent updates.
    15 Mar, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    That's what I'm looking for! Power boost on challenge. Question: How much comes form the batteries responding as opposed to the engine?

     

    If the truck encounters a "grade challenge" - my layman's jargon - how much of the necessary additional input of power/energy will the battery pack provide?

     

    Consider this from Wikipedia: "On a 1% gradient (1 in 100) a locomotive can pull half (or less) of the load that it can pull on level track."

     

    ISTM that optimal hybridization of gen-set truck or loco is defined by the batteries being nearly or completely exhausted at the top of a climb.
    15 Mar, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    In yesterday's resistance test the engine was putting out 160 hp and the batteries added 100 hp on demand. It's just one data point, but it shows the importance of having the battery boost available. If you go to the fuel burn video Jay uploaded a couple weeks ago, you'll be amazed at the differences between slight uphill grades, flat terrain and slight downhill grades.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mTSxgr
    15 Mar, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    100 hp from batteries. WOW! That is fantastic.
    15 Mar, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    JP, thanx for the E-Power update and holy s**t to the 54,236 followers on your instablog site. There must be a few trucking co's and/or drivers within those numbers. Also some very wealthy investors.
    15 Mar, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    I have to admit I wondered if that was accurate, because that number of followers is way beyond even some of the well followed authors on SA.
    15 Mar, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The bulk of my follower count came from an experiment SA tried in the first half of 2010. For a while whenever a new user signed up SA made suggestions of authors they should follow and since I was their top writer on energy related topics, I accumulated about 38,000 followers that I didn't earn. So far this year my average page views per article is in the 9,000 range. Instablogs, of course, draw far less traffic.
    16 Mar, 06:19 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Curious how they came up with the number 56 for the batteries. Obviously 7 x 8 is involved, but why not 8 x 8?
    15 Mar, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    There is obviously some engine rpm producing some steady-state horsepower for level-ground performance which then allows for the calculation of cost vs battery boost for climbs. As a guy who many times used dynos to tweak small-blocks (yes, I had a goddamn budget to stick to, unlike our greedy government), how does this work out for ePower? What's the incremental cost for 8x8 vs the hp gain?
    15 Mar, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Since our system is engine dominant there needs to be a balance between the batteries and the generator so that:

     

    1. The batteries can provide boost when the generator can't provide all the power the drive motor demands; and
    2. The generator can recharge the batteries when the drive motor doesn't need all of the generator's output.

     

    IIRC, the second generation tractor only used 50 AGM batteries (600 VDC), but the number was bumped to 56 PbCs because of differences in the PSOC voltage curves.

     

    I'm sorry I can't provide more technical detail, but it's simply out of my depth.
    15 Mar, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Essentially I think you are calling it engine-dominant, but it's parity you are after. Thus it would seem that you need the ability to force the engine to operate at a particular steady-state rpm (or within a fairly tight range) near optimal efficiency, but still adjustable for the particular load/condition/trailer aerodynamics of the day or trip segment. Lots of variables, all of which ISTM should be adjustable on the fly. The last thing you want is the engine to hit the gas when the batteries have juice.
    15 Mar, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I'm a lawyer and accountant, not an engineer or diesel mechanic. The details you'd like to discuss are simply out of my depth. AFAIK the system automatically adjusts to changing load and road conditions, but I can't begin to tell you how or why it does what it does.
    15 Mar, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    In the next CC I would suggest the following question be addressed to our new CFO.

     

    What plans are being developed to fund the company without a further dilution of the interests of existing shareholder?

     

    This should at least hint at the skills of our CFO – his thinking – and perhaps where management is taking us
    16 Mar, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    dlmca, I 've got to admit that I'd far rather have 100% or more dilution than another PIPE or debt we simply cannot service. Dilution is predictable and manageable. PIPE financing invites vampires into the blood bank and debt places a noose around one's neck. I'm all for dilution.

     

    I'll understand debt financing when we have some cash flow. Until then my only interest is maintaining ownership in the company.
    16 Mar, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you VW. Since I started blogging I've watched a series of bankruptcies in the storage sector including A123, Ener1, Valence Technologies, Beacon Power, C&D Technologies and Exide. The common thread was that all of them borrowed money instead of selling equity that might dilute the interests of their common stockholders. Tesla is the next domino to fall.

     

    Whenever management believes their own BS enough to sell debt instead of equity, bad things happen. Over the years, all of my phone number portfolio losses came at the hands of well intentioned managers that wanted to avoid dilution and borrowed money instead.

     

    I've been there and bought the T-shirts a couple times. I don't want another one.
    16 Mar, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    VW, The reason I prefer the path you suggest is that even though I'd not be happy with the dilution it removes the opportunity for the type of manipulation we've just lived through. Let all the terms be laid out on the table and FIXED before the paper is signed. Walking into someone's back alley with a blank check is not a wise way to do business. And quite frankly, those are the terms we got with the last deal.
    16 Mar, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Mercifully, doing a variable conversion price PIPE is a lot like peeing on an electric fence. Once is more than enough for any lifetime, even if you're a slow learner.
    16 Mar, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    I will not be overly descriptive in telling you where I felt sympathy pains. :(
    16 Mar, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1445) | Send Message
     
    A year ago Axion's market cap pre PIPE was about $30 million. The PIPE deal infused about $9 million net after costs and interest in exchange for, in the end, about 47% of the company by last calculation.

     

    Had it not been the insanely convoluted variable conversion deal that it was, given the $30 million market cap, if it had been a simple fixed equity deal the end result would actually not have differed hugely!

     

    Basically a thinly traded penny stock R&D company on the verge of commercialization but with no sales of its hopefully revolutionary product had bled cash every quarter of its 10 year existence. Axion could show you the carbon but it certainly couldn't show investors the money.

     

    Financiers receiving illiquid blocks of shares of such a stock cannot be expected to pay anything close to market so a negotiated fixed deal may very well have gone off at something like the 47% for $9 million we ultimately got. They certainly would not have paid market ($14 million).

     

    Also the PIPE deal as it was done could have actually *benefited* old shareholders. How? A variable conversion spread out over 9 months makes upside possible -- if great news had propelled the stock during the conversion period the PIPErs would have gotten *far* fewer shares. Not the case had a fixed deal been done last May as simply cash for shares.

     

    In the final analysis legacy shareholders got a raw deal, but not so much raped by the PIPErs. They got raped by the market prior to the PIPE deal for assigning a meager $30 million value to a company that should have been deemed worth a multiple of that.
    16 Mar, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    RA, Don't forget that Axion also paid other moneys to get the deal done, interest and also had to hand out warrants. Just a reminder for those summing up the PIPE costs.
    16 Mar, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Also, don't forget that there wasn't any upside for existing shareholders in the PIPE deal because the PIPEr conversion price was capped.
    16 Mar, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1445) | Send Message
     
    iindy> About $8.3 million was received net of costs. Plus another $1 million net from insiders who will receive shares yet that I did not factor into the 47%.

     

    Remember that we paid PIPE interest in shares not cash, and those shares got factored into the 47%.

     

    Warrants are exercisable at $.302/share contribution to Axion's coffers so I consider them a good thing at this point. If the shares soar past $1 then I may change that view but that will be a glad problem to have. Still 17 million warrants compared to 205 million outstanding shares won't hurt us too bad.
    16 Mar, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1445) | Send Message
     
    apm> I forgot about the cap so good point.
    16 Mar, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • maplecorner
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    I had been in @ .32 before the pipe, and used the opportunity to keep buying at lower prices so that my average is now down to .1333, so it has probably been a benefit to me. Especially if the pps now does more rising. I have not yet sold a share.
    16 Mar, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    The "bend-over" was the PIPErs (presumably) represented themselves as investors instead of flippers.

     

    I'm sure TG could have found any old chaps that would taken a 47% discount to market but at least we would have known what their intent was.

     

    Yes, stocks do converge to where their offerings go off at but you will be hard pressed to find offerings at discounts approaching what the PIPErs were gifted even in much more illiquid names.

     

    Also look at Axion's past financings when the technology was less mature and start/stop was years away - but somehow the real hose job came in the middle of a bull market all while Axion was a commercial entity (we're told)

     

    **Don't forget the warrants; fully diluted the PIPErs added more than 50% to Axion's share count - this is what you'd expect from a zero revenue promotion stock - not one with a 10 year history and revenues above 8-10 Million going back 3+ years

     

    imho
    16 Mar, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Nice catch. That was indeed a very expensive 8M (not 9m since some of money came from friendlies).

     

    ""We will receive approximately $2.76 million in net proceeds at Closing, after deducting our placement agent's fee of $240,000. Our other offering expenses, other than our placement agent's fee, are approximately $100,000, which expenses will be paid out of the proceeds at Closing. At each Funds Release, we will receive approximately $460 thousand in net proceeds, after deducting our placement agent's fee of $40,000.""
    16 Mar, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I agree nobody would ever "want" to do it. But that almost implies TG did the deal by naivete (or was tricked). Isn't it more likely that TG was desperate then, and presumably desperate for capital still, thus he might have to resort to desperate measures again.

     

    Why should we presume that the capital markets will look kinder on Axion a year later. Seems to me that capital markets were plenty strong even last Summer. Dont get me wrong, of course I want to believe it would never happen again, but I'm not so certain that its the last electric fence TG, and the investors, will encounter.
    16 Mar, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    For the last four years Axion stockholders have taken a daily beating from a small handful of big stockholders. While the behavior of the PIPErs and to a lesser extent the 2012 investors was predictable, the big 2009 investors who crushed the price had no damned business selling.

     

    Unfortunately, when human beings get beaten day in and day out for years on end they begin to believe their tormenters are right and they don't deserve any better.

     

    Common examples of the phenomena include Battered Spouse Syndrome and Stockholm Syndrome. Battered Stockholders Syndrome is no different in principle but far more insidious in practice.
    16 Mar, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I get the past. But I don't get how it is different for TG still having to tap dance for pennies? Going forward all institutional investors will likely punish Axion by using the past price charts in their negotiations.

     

    Axionsistas can never control the pps if Axion keeps having to dilute 25-50% yearly. The float at some point has to become much more stable and then maybe some deep pocketed speculators will come in and take the pps much higher (only if they know supply is locked away at the fire sale prices of old).

     

    Maybe that time is now but it will end again if the next investors are as quick to sell as the past ones have been. My main questions is why will TG be able to pull of a quality 2014 placement - if he couldn't do it in 2013 under very similar circumstances when the price was twice as high and the upside wasn't capped by 200M shares in play.
    16 Mar, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I'd be willing to buy your logic if ZBB didn't have a 3-month low of $0.53 culminating in a March 14th offering at $2.25 and PLUG didn't have a 3-month low of $1.48 culminating in a March 6th offering at $5.74. If you look at the 52-week lows the divergence is even more striking.

     

    The point is things change quickly in corporate finance, particularly when the forces that have trashed Axion's stock price for the last four years are no longer relevant.

     

    You're an old friend and I think the world of your tenacity, but you're talking like a battered wife who hasn't wrapped her mind around the fact that her tormenter just dropped dead of a heart attack.

     

    It's an entirely different world, but we've been beaten down for so long that many refuse to believe things can change, much less accept that they've already changed.
    16 Mar, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • dogday1
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    John, I would feel a good deal better if I was sure the wife will not get involved with another abuser. They often do.
    16 Mar, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    =)

     

    I think were in agreement. I'm just saying the stock needs to run first or placement will be crap. But I do get that the stock "could" run between now and Summer. My fear is a placement will kill a run before it really starts and/or increase supply again thus the float gets increased. But heck yes, if stock does run I hope Axion quickly get a placement out there. Or if placement is in strong hands then a run could occur after and then we can do another placement in good market conditions.
    16 Mar, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Axionistas may be suffering from Battered Stockholder Syndrome, or BSS, but management isn't. They understand how the stock price reached its current irrational lows but they also understand Axion's impressive accomplishments over the last four years.

     

    If I thought management was going to rush out next week (or for that matter next month) and close another financing, I'd be worried. I don't believe they're in any hurry this time around because giving the stock price time to heal is the best way to enhance shareholder value.
    16 Mar, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    A after the fact webinar some might be interested in.

     

    Automotive Power Supplies – Making the Transition (to switching supplies, 48V, start-stop, etc)

     

    http://ubm.io/1g10aRR-
    16 Mar, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Ti All
    In IIndelco's webinar
    http://ubm.io/1g10aRR-

     

    @ 36 min in (Yes you can jump there) there is a slide by BMW. The slide is on the parts/systems they plan to move to 48 V first.

     

    It was in a Dec 2013 presentation by them.

     

    I was wondering if anyone had a link to it?
    17 Mar, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    froggey,

     

    I had that on in the background earlier today. If I recall correctly, the slide also referred to lithium ion batteries?

     

    Looks like there is some decent info here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bmDaqc

     

    http://tinyurl.com/na4...
    17 Mar, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    SM
    in the previous slide Titled:
    Increase in the Electrical System in BMW 7 Series

     

    This appears to be a hybrid slide. The top is about BMW.

     

    At the bottom apparently from BOSCH is a 48V Li Ion battery.
    This part of the slide is from a presentation BOSCH did in Nov 2013.
    17 Mar, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Froggy,

     

    If you look at slide 12 of my second link, it appears to refer to the same BMW 7 series project. However, it looks like you have to fill out another registration to get there. Will have to look at later.

     

    And from the excerpt, it looks like the presentation is in German.
    17 Mar, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    SM
    That definitely says :
    48V OEM Announcements:
    Feb. 2012:
    BMW, Mr. Frickenstein: 48V comes with the new BMW-7 in 2015

     

    Of course NSC said before the end of the year in 2013 and missed (As far as we know.)
    A 2012 prediction for next year might be off a tad too.

     

    Thanks for the link and anything you can make out of the site. So far I can't find anything from BMW.
    (My German us nonexistent but using Google translate hasn't helped much yet either.

     

    The quote:
    "Mit dem neuen 7er wird BMW 48 Volt konsequent in die Serie bringen, zunächst werden Hochstromverbraucher angeschlossen. Sukzessive folgen 12-Volt-Verbraucher."

     

    "With the new 7-series, BMW will consistently bring in the series 48 volt, first, high consumers of electricity are connected. Successively follow 12-volt consumers."

     

    Seems to mean the same as II's webinar said. The accessories that need the most power will be switched over first and the rest will be switched later.

     

    Thanks SM
    17 Mar, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    sorry if repeat, and haven't digested it all, but several dowloadable docs here with what feels like a wealth of information on the move to 48V... registration required but only asks for most basic info...

     

    http://bit.ly/1fUx6dG
    17 Mar, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    481 -

     

    http://bit.ly/1ieb7y9

     

    Not sure if the link above will go directly to the report, but this one discusses Bosch's 48v scheme.

     

    "In detail, it works as follows: any surplus energy from braking is sent via the 48 volt vehicle electrical system to the 0.25 kilowatt hour lithium ion battery."

     

    How big was each battery for the NS 999 application? .5 kwh? At approximately $475? (Probably now $375-425?)

     

    John, how big are each of the batteries kwh wise for the ePower application?

     

    Would it be possible for a lead carbon battery to be only 0.25 kwh for a 48v auto application? If so, would that make it half the cost of a .5 kwh battery?
    18 Mar, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The basic numbers don't make sense to me. For a 48-volt battery to have 250 wh capacity it needs to be rated at 5 amp-hours (V x Ah=Wh).

     

    The charging regime Axion used for its SBIR project was 150 amps in a 12-volt system, a 1.8 kW charge rate. Presumably a 48-volt system will want to push more current into its battery during each cycling event.

     

    Dumping 1.8 kW of energy into a 250 wh battery works out to a charge rate of 7.2C and I don't know of any lithium-ion chemistry that can withstand that kind of charge regime.

     

    Methinks the hopium laced vaporware content of the presentation is high.
    18 Mar, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Based on back-of-the-envelope -

     

    Assuming ePower is sending 200 A to the battery string, and the battery string is 20 kwh at 670V, Axion's battery can accept short term charge at 6.7C.

     

    Is that about right for Axion's PcB?
    18 Mar, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Like w/ the first wayside energy recuperation system sold to the PA rail system it could also be "greenware" on the dynamic braking portion of the BMW system.

     

    Hard to break old habits?

     

    Or maybe when you look at the entire drive cycle it is better to haul around less weight in the battery pack than to go w/ the more effective energy storage system that weighs more but is only utilized during a small portion of the entire trip? I've not run the calculations but it's a fear worthy of consideration once you get up to the higher voltage systems. In this application you might not need the added energy for hotel loads or processes that need to happen like the electric supercharger.

     

    Anyway, something more to consider when thinking about energy storage. Some processes NEED to happen and some processes are optional at different times.
    18 Mar, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    JBB> When our tractor goes into regen coming off a freeway the charge currents climb into the 250 amp range which would be a 4C to 5C rate on a 50 to 60 Ah battery. But we're not throwing that kind of charge at the batteries once or twice per mile.

     

    Iindy> The hotel loads on a simple 12-volt stop-start are 600 watts without the heavy electric gee-gaws. I can't imagine how a 48-volt system with tons of electric gee-gaws will need less power. That's why the numbers don't make sense to me.
    18 Mar, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    John, Understood. I'd love to see discreet load and timing charts for some of their drive cycle events to get a better understanding about what they feel their requirements are and how they can make compromises under certain conditions. This would also need to be coupled with how far they have integrated smart devices into the vehicle. There have to be compromises in certain areas and I'm sure they are making some based on some data base that includes how each system is utilized along with consumer driving habits in their various markets.

     

    The entire process has to be pretty darn interesting. In the end I think there will be a pretty high level of green washing because most will not give up performance and comfort for REAL hard won efficiency. However in the end things like government emissions regulations, safety and the primary drive functions are not negotiable.
    18 Mar, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    John/ii/anybody -

     

    Does anybody have a good reference article that describes how these factors work together to determine battery size, etc?
    18 Mar, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Iindy> These little conundrums over third generation load profiles in vaporware 48-volt systems are the big reason I keep observing that we haven't even a significant launch of Gen2 systems yet and they're far closer to reality than 48-volt Gen3 systems. Hell, when you get right down to it even Gen1 systems aren't prevalent yet.

     

    Four years ago BMW was complaining that flooded and AGM batteries weren't good enough for the Gen2 systems they wanted to launch by mid-decade. Now that we've reached mid-decade and the launch of Gen2 systems is close at hand the automakers have begun to talk about what they'd like to do with Gen3 systems. The weak link in ambitious plans always has been and always will be the batteries.

     

    We know the PbC is the only battery on the planet that's good enough for Gen2. Since I've already lived through four years of hell waiting for the launch of the possible, I refuse to get all worked up about planning for the impossible load profiles of vaporware Gen3 systems.

     

    While I never viewed him as more than a good song writer, there is more than a little wisdom in John Lennon's observation that ""Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans."
    18 Mar, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1445) | Send Message
     
    John>

     

    "We know the PbC is the only battery on the planet that's good enough for Gen2."

     

    So there is no existing lithium or other battery that can do the work, at any expense? That sounds like very good news to me. I had thought PbC was not the only choice but that others were cost prohibitive.
    18 Mar, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Lithium ion chemistries were developed for use in environmental conditions human beings find comfortable. The entire class has overwhelming cold and hot weather performance issues. Battery manufacturers are selling hard and promising the world, but so far they haven't been able to deliver on those promises.
    18 Mar, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    RA, From all the recent press releases, ALBAC seems to think that whichever battery they are testing in their 48-v system is up to the task. Not clear which battery they are using, but evidence suggests it might be a variant of the UltraBattery, and definitely not the PbC. Kia's press releases about their 48-v system sound a lot like what ALBAC is touting, but we cannot be sure until they unveil it. PbC might be the best, but there seems to be evidence that UB (or some other lead-carbon variant) is at least "good enough."
    18 Mar, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, The problem is that there are so many technology offerings and what they yield directionally in energy savings and other factors depends on the individual platform needs and the existing/future technology path that the individual manufacturers/discrete platforms are on. The manufacturers all have lots of common technology integrated into their vehicles but they also have unique aspects as well. And some of the technology, even within the same company, are unique based on the markets being targeted. So how they will pick and choose which technology best suits their internal goals, regulatory requirements and competitive position is where the "secret sauce" resides. They play together in a common sandbox where it best suits their needs but the rest of the play area can be cliques and individual turf. This is really why we have the NDA fog machine. Some of these choices deliver real competitive advantage and if shared can cause some real heartburn.

     

    I think this is part of what you're asking?
    18 Mar, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    5 amp-hours is the approximate capacity for Hitachi automotive li-ion cells as per Nissan and GM vehicles.

     

    their charge/discharge curves seem well balanced, they would handle that type of charge /discharge regime. In particular, it seems that Gen IV cells are to designed for 11C
    http://bit.ly/1mfsDWv

     

    back of envelope
    3 x 48V = 144Volt pack, so it equivalent to a 1/3 size pack of today's pathfinder hybrid.

     

    I presume Hitachi Automotive has li ion competitors
    18 Mar, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    John, You are correct in pointing out that often in this forum we are talking about different technology options for future platforms. The one thing we need to keep in mind, and I often glance over it having worked in the industry and having a little bit of a built in sense of timing, is that we are skipping all over the place on how this technology will be rolled out from a timing perspective. Surely there will be some level of overlap based on different manufacturer needs but there is little doubt that 12 VDC powered technology will be far and above the choice for nearer term solutions than 48 VDC technology.

     

    But then, to be clear, we should understand both because with the lead times involved, we really don't know what Axion's potential partners might mate with them for relative to future market needs. We could be totally missing a market potential that is even of pressing than what we think is out highest probable leading market opportunity. This having been pointed out by more than a few Axionistas.
    18 Mar, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ii - I think my question may be unanswerable especially to a layman like me. I want to be able to cut through the bs that I read so I can give credit where credit is due.

     

    For example, John is calling the .25 kwh li-ion battery for a 48v application vaporware. I wish I knew enough to say one way or another if that size battery is appropriate for that application. I understand the numbers, but not how they work together given the various parameters.
    18 Mar, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    At this point in time 48-volt systems are vaporware. Hell, for that matter so are Gen2 micro-hybrid systems. That being said Gen2 micro-hybrids are five to seven years closer to reality than Gen3.

     

    The big problem everybody has when trying to assess the future is not having a firm grip on when ideas are likely to take tangible form at meaningful scale. 48-volt systems may well be the future of automotive, but that future vision won't take tangible form until 2020 or later.

     

    All day long I read blistering comments about how Axion needs a clear path to credible revenue growth NOW. For better or worse, 48-volt systems will be a foggy and uncertain path for at least another six years.
    18 Mar, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Yeah, I think we can get a sense for directionally how much storage seems to make the most sense and the positive/negative aspects of the various technologies we post on. However, how this will be applied to satisfy all the variables the individual players are working on along with how effective they really intend to make them work for everything they are packing into their future product programs is really what they are looking to make less than clear for people like Axionistas. Also it should be mentioned that the path they are taking is not fixed for them once you get beyond programs that are solidified at some point before launch. They are wagging and weaving to the information we are trying to digest as well.

     

    Our mission is to shine the crystal ball and look into it until out eyelids win. Their mission is to spray paint the looking glass black for our next gaze into what's coming other than what they wish to feed us.
    18 Mar, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    iinde, I'm w/ you on the timing discussions here being all over the map. For sake of brevity, a lot of details are usually left out the discussions here. Hard for me to believe that the future adoption of the various levels of hybrid would all be sequentially end-to-end. One starts only after the last one ends. The reality is there has been and there will continue to be overlap. Some 48v systems may well appear in the 2015 or 2016 calendar years, while Gen 1 is still being sold, and perhaps Gen 2, too. Or three, that is. lol

     

    And that is one way us AXPW investors get our clearer path--well before any generation is fully up to scale.
    18 Mar, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    JP/ii -

     

    Thank you for both of your responses. I think I understand the issues pretty well, but cutting through the fog is difficult given the less than forthcoming positions that various battery pushers take.
    18 Mar, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, And if you think about how all these various solutions mesh it makes sense. It's really no different than any other market. You have to have various offerings because different people in different places all have varying needs and distinct budgets. So the ideal solution is to have a number of the best offerings that are scaled to percentages of the market segments that need them. "The best" has different meanings to different people.

     

    It's as John has pointed out numerous times here. Each battery chemistry has its own strengths given the differing needs of the various applications. We'll need them all.

     

    Just takes to damn long to find a home for some.
    18 Mar, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    iinde, thx. To me, the only thing that's changed, and it's a biggie, is that the 48v talk has increased, and one huge automaker has publicly said they're going to start using it soon, w/ lead carbon as their battery choice.

     

    Everything else automotive has not really changed---still expect various adoption times for the various levels of hybridization, various battery chemistries, various suppliers, etc. Still no silver bullet, but the expected markets are so large that a lot of suppliers can win.
    18 Mar, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I agree the Kia comments in pubic were a significant data point for next generation LAB technologies. And I agree we've seen more in the press recently about 48 VDC. I do think however that there really is not a large shift as it relates to the inclusion of a 48 VDC operating voltage for some auto applications. The industry has been looking at it for decades and supplier releases over the last few years have shown that it's coming. I thing the short term spike in information on 48 VDC systems has more to do with European industry sector events than any actual short term shift. And Europe will be a heavier adopter due to regs and higher fuel prices.
    18 Mar, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    iinde, yes, will be a long time before it's scaled big, but us AXPW investors don't need that piece to scale yet, as I believe in the 'stk price is a discount of expectations' model for AXPW. Anything that gives investors more info to form/reform their expectations is a good thing. Even if it's only a little more info. Sure beats nothing.

     

    I am of the opinion that the automotive component of the stk price had withered to almost nothing. This gave it a lil boost. Tiny electric supercharged boost. Like a baby leprechaun's play car would use.
    18 Mar, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I agree that the stock is undervalued based on the technology and the business model. Based on the price of operating capital, as it relates to the stock price, it has however not disappointed the non-believers.

     

    Some firm signs or a path to such will turn the tide for sure.
    18 Mar, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    iinde, at least we should get a little more info to chew on in less than two weeks from Axion.
    18 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I'll take Chinese but I'd far more prefer French, German or even another well talked about treat from the Asia Pacific region if we're talking about chewing on something new. Just put some meat on it!
    18 Mar, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Maybe TG will say at least a lil something about what all those terminals and caps are for. PC, I'd guess. And a helpful update on auto since it's being talked about again, for good reason we think. NS seems to be the same old slowpoke story, so I'm not expected anything helpful there. Maybe something else, like non-ePower truck work, can be updated. I'd like elaboration on the new board member story. And expand the cc to 90 minutes from 50-55. With some Q's from a pro investor. And a cherry on top.
    18 Mar, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Yep all that for me as well.

     

    I'll even take the cherry. Hold the whipped dream. ;-D
    18 Mar, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tickerman
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    great link, iindelco. thanks for posting.
    16 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    One of my points is that we ask the CFO a direct question and hope the TG gets out of the way to let him answer

     

    Agree the question could be modified

     

    Thanks for various thoughts
    16 Mar, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Another shipment for AXION.

     

    12/15/2013 0.80 metric tons.

     

    Described as

     

    SEP:DRAFT ELIM-1 SPACER, SEP: DRAFT ELIM-2 SPACER

     

    http://bit.ly/1hpnN3k

     

    Also on datamyne.com

     

    No idea what was actually imported.
    16 Mar, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Kawo is a plastic mold manufacturer. Battery cases? That's about the only thing that can add up to 0.80 metric tons. But even then that still adds up to thousands of cases.

     

    -==(>>> ***SIGNIFICANT SALES*** <<<)==-

     

    (my emphasis added)
    16 Mar, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    The wording to me is indicative of samples from 2 trial runs with some dimensional variation for test purposes. This prior to shipping the mold once things are verified.

     

    They might be adjusting cell size to balance power/energy?

     

    http://bit.ly/1e8vX0V
    16 Mar, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    iinde, if this is about battery cases, then do u think it wouldn't b for auto? Wouldn't Axion's manufacturing partner(s) there handle the cases?
    16 Mar, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    I hope to see some of the number crunchers break down what Axion would need in near metric ton quantity at this stage.
    16 Mar, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    If "ELIM" is an acronym, one of the choices is Electrical Line Interface Module. No idea if this applies here.
    16 Mar, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Great find, Albert!

     

    48v battery casings?
    16 Mar, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I can't see any good reason to make a 48-volt battery when you can simply wire four 12-volt batteries or three 16-volt batteries in series to achieve the same result.

     

    The Battery Council International has a long list of standardized case sizes for 6-volt and 12-volt batteries.

     

    http://bit.ly/rXeP68

     

    Since it's always cheaper to combine standardized modular components than to create a non-standard monoblock from the ground up, building a 48-volt case would be the last thing on my to-do list.
    16 Mar, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Mr I

     

    Unfortunately I think/guess :
    SEP:DRAFT ELIM-1 SPACER, SEP: DRAFT ELIM-2 SPACER

     

    is a shipping thing (Specification?) with no regard to what is being shipped. (Other than perhaps a container designation or something similar.)

     

    I found a:

     

    Customs declaration
    Description of cargo.

     

    Note the middle part is word for word the same.

     

    1000PCS OF UNIVERSAL WRIST SPLINT 250 PCS OF STIRRUP ANKLE BRACE THIS SHIPMENT CONTAINS NO SOLID WOOD PACKING MATERIALS. SEP DRAFT ELIM-1 SPACER SEP DRAFT ELIM-2 SPACER 1PALLET=54CARTONS THIS SHIPMENT CONTAINS NO SOLID WOOD PACKING MATERIALS. CASE KEYBOARD MINI PROJECTOR

     

    http://bit.ly/1d5shPK
    16 Mar, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, If my WAG was directionally correct I could see no other reason for any other market to be making such finite adjustments. It would be an optimization type adjustment for lower amounts of units. Easy to do w/o such restrictions in larger format applications where you have larger counts of batteries.

     

    Please understand that it's only a far fetched theory. Something to think about and watch for.
    16 Mar, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Kawo also does metal die casting. Perhaps battery terminals? In February there was another import for terminal plastic caps.

     

    http://bit.ly/PH6GCO
    16 Mar, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    Here looks to be additional detail on that one...sure looks like a lot of weight coming from a South Korean port with a description that includes dry battery.

     

    http://bit.ly/1g2RL0o
    17 Mar, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Battery caps.
    17 Mar, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    "Number of Pieces: 9 CTN

     

    Gross Weight: 9389 KG"

     

    20,700 lbs of battery terminals with caps sounds like a lot.

     

    "DRY BATTERY(LEAD ACID BATTERY LEAD TERMINALS PLASTIC PCS RUBBER CAP)"

     

    http://bit.ly/1g2RL0o
    17 Mar, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    How much does a battery terminal with a cap weigh?

     

    Are these terminals and caps for the toll contract, or the PbC?
    17 Mar, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I would imagine the battery terminal caps would be the same if all else being equal PbCs can be built on a VRLA line.

     

    However, Axion has been building out the toll contract for a couple years now and I don't remember seeing prior similar orders for battery caps.

     

    I have heard it discussed here that the format for the toll contract is that the buyer supplies all of the materials - not sure if that impacts this determination.

     

    Obviously, if they are not for the toll contract, the various import orders that we are seeing could support gearing up for something.

     

    Careful though, every other time we have assumed such, we have been wrong.
    17 Mar, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: I agree, I have never before seen a battery cap order (but that doesn't mean another order doesn't exist). But now we have a new mold (or molds) coming in from China, and it would appear a sizeable battery terminal and cap order from China, too.

     

    Sumthin' is up.

     

    Added 20,000 shares on this news. So, I'm probably wrong.

     

    ####

     

    Great sleuthing, Froggey!
    17 Mar, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    Toll contract would be supplied by East Penn. It is possible that the material is for their race car and classic car biz. Or, as hoped, for the PbC. I can't remember if the last time a terminal shipment was received if it specified brass. APM posted it last year.
    17 Mar, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    SM
    I think I recall a previous order of them, but I don't recall how much was in the order.

     

    Agree it would not be for the toll contract.
    It could be for the other batteries Axion makes.
    17 Mar, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Will be updating John's charts starting 5 minutes from this time stamp.
    16 Mar, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Starting update in 10, 9, 8 ...
    16 Mar, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Changes marked with (NEW!) and (UPDATED!). We now return you to regularly scheduled ... drudgery.
    16 Mar, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Internet restored last evening, back in the aerie now. ;-))

     

    This is Thursday's EOD post.

     

    03/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 238513, AvTrSz: 4868
    Min. Pr: 0.1532, Max Pr: 0.1629, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1606
    # Buys, Shares: 30 161013, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1614
    # Sells, Shares: 19 77500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1590
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.08:1 (67.51% "buys"), DlyShts 53733 (22.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 69.33%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0766 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1285 vs. $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774 and $0.0779 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.13%, -6.91%, 2.82%, -80.18% and -63.21% respectively. Price spread today was 6.33% vs. 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29% and 9.14% on prior days.

     

    My favorite short-term target, “reversion to the mean”, around $0.16-$0.165 or so, has been hit by VWAP, low and close ($0.1598). My expectation (or is it hope?) is that we will stabilize here for a little bit before the next directional move starts to appear. However, if volume remains very low and ATDF remains predominately at the top of both bid and ask (today best on both sides simultaneously 19 out of 26 peeks I took), as has been the case recently, then they will need volume to make some money. The bias then should be lower price to stimulate volume. I expect daily short sales would be (a little bit?) low(er?) during this period even if buy percentage edged up some, as was the case today.

     

    Yesterday's $0.15-$0.175 spread put us in the ballpark where we should start to see consolidation “firm up” for a little bit. Today did a little up (the low) and down (the high) movement within yesterday's price range. And it was, as suggested yesterday, with volume slightly volatile, but generally trending to the low side. So we have a good start to what looks like a consolidation beginning.

     

    Part 2, if it's really a consolidation, seems on track too as the full stochastic ...

     

    ... In the non-traditional TA area, today's 67.51% “buys”, up from yesterday's 27.3% without any price appreciation or volume, seems to confirm weakness. The daily short sales percentage being relatively low for this level of buys also suggests weakness in the cards. ...

     

    The newer version one-day changes switched from having two consecutive days of all periods weakening ...

     

    ... The pattern on the chart is starting to roll up, suggesting the strong downward impetus has abated. Look at the test version.

     

    The usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Mar, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thanks for your daily analysis and JP for your supply and demand theory. I don't follow the full depth of HTL's work, but I have learned enough from both of you on the ups and downs of Axion to get a better feel of how the pps varies. Before learning from you I lost a lot of money trying to buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low. Usually I ended up chasing Axion on the way up after selling. Your TA has given me a little more patience not to chase.

     

    This past week I was able to sell 50k shares and buy them back for $958 less. I also sold 15.5k shares and bought back 17270 shares with the same money. Now if I could just do that every week without any losses!!!! :-)

     

    I did that Wed if it helps your TA. Sold at .17 and bought back in at .1505.
    16 Mar, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    JVeal: I appreciate your post. Being human, I always have doubts if my effort is worth much to anyone but myself.

     

    To hear of concrete results that I may have aided in a small way is quite gratifying.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    17 Mar, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3884) | Send Message
     
    JVeal is definitely not alone in learning and benefiting from your TA, HTL. Many thanks.
    17 Mar, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I follow all that your write and I do think you spot changes in trend much better than chance; your efforts are indeed worth it. Your skills will surely save (or make you) more than a few bucks in the Market.
    17 Mar, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Mar, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2101) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Your humor is the icing on the cake.

     

    Thanks for all of your efforts and contributions.

     

    Oops probably shouldn't be mentioning icing just now...

     

    :-)
    17 Mar, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    On going through the Axion whitepaper again, I thought it would be worth mentioning that the paper finds that in as little as 2 minutes at PSOC for a flooded lead in stop/start, sulphation can occur resulting in an increasing loss of DCA.

     

    One paper that I remember quickly going through some time ago now, stated that sulphation would not occur for perhaps as long as 24 hours with a battery at PSOC. So, as this energy/power quest in the battery field continues, more details are being learned about matters that were thought to be well established.

     

    The details in the white paper show that there is notably poorer performance in the lead acid batteries with just only two minutes extra before the recharge cycle begins.

     

    A note that I had read on the voltage required for an electric supercharger, it said that a minimum of 10 volts are required for it to work.
    17 Mar, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    Edit to my comment at 03:58....

     

    It should read "One paper that I remember quickly going through some time ago now, stated that serious and damaging sulphation would not occur for perhaps as long as 24 hours with a battery at PSOC."
    17 Mar, 04:06 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    More info on the UB.....

     

    The following info on DCA of the UB is from Furukawa:
    (a)Re-chargeability when the start SOC is 90%

     

    SOC % TIME (seconds)
    89.0 0
    89.0 18
    91.5 100
    93.5 200
    95.0 300
    96.0 375

     

    (b)Re-chargeability when the start SOC is 95%
    94.8 0
    94.8 18
    96.0 100
    97.1 200
    97.8 300
    98.0 315

     

    On the same graphs, they do have the DCA numbers for an "improved flooded lead acid battery (IFB)" as well. The DCA for the UB becomes significantly better than that for the IFB, but only at a third or one half of the way through the recharge cycle.

     

    So, when it is said that the UB outperforms other batteries, questions have to asked as to such details as 1) when does it begin to significantly outperform and 2) by how much and 3) for how long?

     

    Overall, this is all the UB DCA info that I have been able to dig up so far. These results are from Furakawa's own test regime conducted using a Suzuki Swift taxi cab throughout Tokyo and perhaps elsewhere in Japan.

     

    Most of the report is in japanese, but from what I can surmise from the english ortions, the report was presented sometime in 2011 or 2012.

     

    There is more in this report which can be posted later with more time.
    17 Mar, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3884) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that UB info, U 393~.
    17 Mar, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8757) | Send Message
     
    User 39, Ditto the thanks for sharing your DD on the UB. I'd not been able to find anything concerning DCA on the UB.

     

    One warm fuzzy coming your way! ;)
    17 Mar, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    D-inv & iindelco -->> Thanks and I do have some more on it and will post on that when time becomes available.
    17 Mar, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    User 393
    Great info!
    That seriously relieves the concerns I had about the UB.
    17 Mar, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Yes thanks HTL for all your work

     

    Looking at the chart - I agree with an earlier comment that it would not take much in the way of news to move the price into the $0.30's

     

    But it will take news. Surely the end March or early April CC will offer up some news of importance to AXPW commercial developments
    17 Mar, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731)