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  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Clearly I am staying on top of things.
    18 Mar, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Missed it by "____" that much.
    18 Mar, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Really? Third...
    18 Mar, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    Drats - Just out of the medals round..
    18 Mar, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    First time in the top 5.
    18 Mar, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Dreaming of PowerCubes...#1 best solution for frequency regulation.

     

    "California utility buys X PowerCubes" would be a pleasant surprise.
    18 Mar, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    She thrilled with a smile
    and she ran with our buys
    She tempted our faith with her multiple ties
    And she only reveals what she can allow you to see
    She hides in the wild,
    But she's one day a winner to me

     

    She has lead you to buy
    and to take some at ask
    you hoped for more truths
    yet she never deceived you
    But she took what you gave her, and all of it free
    Yeah, she feels like a thief
    But she's one day a winner to me

     

    Oh--she takes care of herself
    and we wait till she runs
    She's ahead of her time
    Oh--and she never pays out
    But we never gives up
    She just needs for more time

     

    Well she promised us more
    Than the Garden of Eden
    Then she helplessly cut out
    and coughed while we're bleedin'
    yet she brings out the best
    And the worst we can be
    Blame it all on ourselves
    But she's one day a winner to me

     

    Oh--it'll take care of itself
    we will wait till she wants
    we're ahead of our time
    Oh--and she's never paid out
    yet she hasn't gived in
    She just wants some more time

     

    She is occasionally kind
    And then suddenly cruel
    She'll sell when she pleases
    She's nobody's tool
    And she can't be sulphated
    She's spurned your degree
    And the most she will do
    Is throw filings at you
    But she's someday a winner to me
    18 Mar, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Very very clever.
    19 Mar, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (403) | Send Message
     
    Awesome, I emailed your song to Billy, I'm sure he will want to record this sequel! JK. Nice work.
    19 Mar, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    48, You have a lot of time on your hands! Love that song!
    18 Mar, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'm re-reading the Q&A from last CC. My impressions are:

     

    1. The significant sales likely refers to trains. He stated six months when talking about NSC, and would have visibility into the program especially after ASME in October. TG said that "significant" meant more than just a step increase in sales, so I think a dozen locos are the only candidate. Not even a few PC sales would do that.
    2. TG was down about auto but he did mention there was to be a larger meeting than usual a week after the CC. So a potential surprise here. He might not have expected any near term movement but maybe Kia did surprise him.
    3. PC and ePower were emphasized as growth markets, but probably because there was not much to talk about for trains and auto.

     

    My guess is that unless there is surprise on the auto front, the next CC will be similar to last. Hopefully some progress. But, I will give them one more quarter to deliver since money won't be needed until Q4.

     

    Hopefully NSC and auto will act by summer. NSC in particular is stated to build a dozen locos for the next step, which could give a couple quarters of juice.
    18 Mar, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    You would certainly expect something from NSC since they publicly stated they were planning for Q4 2013.
    18 Mar, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Considering that at the moment the *one* train we have is still sitting on the sidelines awaiting modifications, a dozen trains anytime this year seems optimistic.

     

    http://bit.ly/INYJCZ

     

    I don't know, I get the impression that maintenance and creation of the standard "fleet" ("fleet"? - what do you call a bunch of trains?) always pushes the NS-999 to the back of the queue in terms of priority.

     

    Having said that, I haven't seen the statement that they are planning to build a dozen, what's the source for that one?
    18 Mar, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Well, the batteries for the NS-999 were ordered well in advance. NSC didn't take delivery for them for about 10 months IIRC. So a large order can certainly materialize at any time.

     

    I believe I saw the dozen trains referenced either in the ASME report, or the NS sustainability report, or PR about the ASME.
    18 Mar, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    I saw it here:

     

    http://bit.ly/PNNd38
    18 Mar, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan. That link cites the source as the NS Sustainability Report (presumably 2013). Unfortunately I can't find any such reference to a dozen more locomotives in there, nor can I find any such reference in the sustainability reports all the way back to the first NS-999 in 2009.

     

    2013 report: http://bit.ly/NsJOot

     

    Index of previous reports: http://bit.ly/NsJRk1

     

    Possibly the confusion comes from also considering the PR43C, a more efficient diesel-engine based locomotive which also falls under the "Alternative Power Projects" category, of which it states "...[w]e are operating 10 of the PR43C units"...?

     

    I also see "...in addition to NS 999, we are continuing work on a prototype battery-powered road locomotive that would move freight over long distances."

     

    But, still can't find any primary source for more than that.
    19 Mar, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry I'm not able to find where a dozen trains was referenced from a primary source.

     

    From the 2013 report:

     

    "In addition to NS 999, we are continuing work on a prototype battery-powered road locomotive that would move freight over long distances."

     

    Have we talked about the road loco at all?

     

    Lastly, AltoonaWorks on Facebook seems to indicate that the Juniata shop is really busy, with overtime workers every day. The SD60E also seemed like a high priority for NSC, so maybe that is why the NS-999 was taken out. Especially if a road loco was being built in conjunction.
    19 Mar, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    So far as I know the NS999 Switcher has not even been built yet, but perhaps it has. When the various parts of that 'battery powered' switcher locomotive finally do get built by the various suppliers and then assembled, the electronics must then be fully tested prior to going into service and after that its useability in pushing trains around the yard all day and then being recharged overnight must be evaluated for at least six months to be certain that the locomotive, its electronics and the batteries are all working properly and can perform the intended functions. I don't see NS ordering more switchers until this one proves itself to be useful, durable and reasonably cost effective. This is perhaps more a PR project for NSC than something that they need for reasons of performance or economics and they will perhaps get all the PR they need out of just one switcher. The over the road locomotive may be a hoarse of another color that actually has some real economics issues associated with it, but that project seems to be an even more distant source of meaningful sales revenues for Axion.

     

    Bottom like is that expecting meaningful 2014 or even 2015 revenues from NSC battery sales is not realistic.
    22 Mar, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    "The over the road locomotive may be a hoarse of another color that actually has some real economics issues associated with it,"

     

    This may be why work on the NS-999 seems to have stopped. Maybe the OTR is being working on first and the batteries were diverted to there. In fact, it may already be in service and why the "less than 6 months" comment by TG.
    22 Mar, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: That would be a pleasant, and very unusual, outcome for us.

     

    Habitually everything just slips badly or just goes unmentioned after a while.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    22 Mar, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    The prototype NS-999 could be pushing trains around the yard in less six months but based on the history of this project there is no way that the prototype OTR could be built in that time frame. In my opinion,TG has to begin speaking in more specific terms that avoid this type of extrapolated thinking on the part of we investors because it only leads to feelings of disappointment at best or feelings of having been intentionally misled at worst. As I said, "..meaningful 2014 or even 2015 revenues from NSC battery sales is not realistic."
    22 Mar, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The original NS 999 rollout in September 2009 was a PR catastrophe for Norfolk Southern and they've worked very hard over the last four and a half years to keep their ongoing work on the project as far from the public eye as humanly possible.

     

    While I suppose NS could have bought a half-million dollars worth of batteries for their second generation switcher and then dumped them into a warehouse for a year while they figured out what they wanted to do next, the complete lack of foresight, direction and planning in that scenario would be painfully obvious.

     

    Given the heat I took when I wrote about the second generation electric switcher project in the summer of 2011, I think it's more reasonable to believe that NS did their work on the schedule discussed in their 2013 Sustainability Report and they've been quietly testing the Gen2 switcher for months.

     

    The suggestion that NS has done nothing implies gross incompetence and mismanagement at NS. I don't think they're that stupid. I do, however, think they were embarrassed enough by the 2009 fiasco to keep their work hidden until they want to reveal it.
    22 Mar, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    PbC Believer:

     

    http://bit.ly/1a6PZqB

     

    Granville talks a bit about NSC around 1:20, and mentions an over the road train being developed for NS's Crescent Line. I think there is definitely work going on there that could surprise us.
    22 Mar, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Here's the first two questions, IMO: How often has NSC (1) put forth a project as "leading the charge" and (2) failed to attempt to execute said charge.

     

    I don't see them as a company making wild promises, nor failing to make an effort to execute. SO I think the odds are quite high that there is something going on somewhere.

     

    The first generation "proof of concept" NS999 made believers out of many. The weakness was the batteries, not the idea. We know that the NS999 is sitting in the backyard at Altoona and it has not moved for ~6 months. It is not the focus of whatever effort they are making now.

     

    We also know that they have a battery string-tester in Roanoke. I think that may well be where the ~864 batteries are.

     

    I would not be surprised to see either a battery-powered switcher or an OTR locomotive out of NSC in the coming months. I would be really surprised if we saw or heard nothing.
    22 Mar, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, We also saw the new welded superstructure for the battery container portion at DropBox so we know that either the upper portion or the NS 999 is obsolete (very very likely) or that they are progressing with the OTR application. In NSC's update report they indicated the failure of ease of access to the batteries was one of the big failures associated with NS 999 Generation 1.

     

    The program is surely not dead. We know they had at least one issue so we can expect them to resolve this before they proceed. After the first program nobody is going to roll the dice on this second attempt. I believe the phrase applied would be career suicide.

     

    http://bit.ly/MOtvTe;http://bit.ly/MOtvTi
    22 Mar, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Here is a compilation of articles on 48-v systems for cars. Seem like everybody and their uncle is coming up with a system and that most seem to smell like the CPT system that ALBAC is promoting. Batteries mentioned are lithium ion, and lead with carbon additives. I think these systems may be closer to market than many think. Perhaps as early as next year we will see some for sale.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fvmfCC
    18 Mar, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Some articles stated that these systems will be on the road in 2015, including about Kia. Unless we're positively surprised during the next CC, we're looking at MY2016 instead of MY2015.
    18 Mar, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    The Navigant article from this past January shows a ramp-up beginning in 2015 that quickly accelerates. Not clear what information it is based on, though.
    18 Mar, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The executive summary to the Navigant report shows that volumes won't exceed a million cars per year (1% of the global new car market) until 2018 and they won't exceed a 10% market share before 2022 or 2023.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mA4GrI

     

    48-volt systems are coming, but they're not coming in relevant scale within a relevant investment timeframe.

     

    If 48-volt system were going into 2015 model year vehicles, the ramp would start this year.
    18 Mar, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    I do have to admit I was surprised to see someone mention launch plans for the 48 VDC electric supercharger before the 12 VDC offering. I find it quite interesting that Kia is that far advanced in finding a place for a 48 VDC bus in at least one of their vehicles.

     

    Heck, I've been seeing it come and go for so long I was beginning to think it was "The mythical tale of 48 VDC" and it wasn't in automotive but might be powering Rudolf's nose.
    18 Mar, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    The webinar that IIndelco linked to was for US auto professionals. suppliers-makers etc.
    It had a poll question.

     

    "What model year will you begin switching design to 48 V systems?"

     

    A. Current Model Year / Now ... 5%

     

    B. By 2017 Model Year ..... 15%

     

    C. 2018 Model Year and Beyond .... 80%

     

    Which looking at it optimistically 5% are or about to begin working on it immediately. 15% more in the next 2 years. (By 2017 model year.)

     

    Also this was for US people I assume Europe is at least one year ahead, possibly more.

     

    Which isn't great, but not bad and seems faster than you are projecting.
    18 Mar, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Hard to see how 48v sales would b a cornerstone of an AXPW investor's thesis in the very near term, but one can easily get the sense that a positive announcement could occur within the next year or so. This is not a small deal, with Kia being the first to say lead-carbon, 3-4 batteries per car, and matching/needing the PbC's strengths more than ever. A positive announcement, even of a sliver of the early mkt, would be a biggie for the stk. Certainly expect some other mkts to generate announcements first, e.g., PC, but I'll take just about anything from auto as great news. Heck, in this announcement desert, any announcement is welcome.
    18 Mar, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: I vaguely remember "48V in autos" being discussed in the late 1990s. You know, to electrify all of those things that need belts and pulleys for power. Then the tech wreck happened and........
    18 Mar, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, You are correct. And that's "later" when it became more of a serious topic.
    19 Mar, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    I assume the primary reason Kia didn't/wouldn't go with the superior PbC is cost. At 3-4 batteries per car, I wonder if Axion should consider settling for lower margins just to get things moving, and then make up for it in volume. If they could just get the show rolling, I can easily imagine that the combined capacity needed to keep up with PbC demand could rival the capacity of Tesla's gigafactory.
    19 Mar, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/PPTw6j

     

    Monday, January 14th, 2013

     

    "Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) is set to unveil a dual-battery model incorporating a conventional lead-acid battery and a lithium-ion battery at the North American International Auto Show that begins today in Detroit."

     

    - - - -

     

    "The company suggests a 12V lead-acid battery alongside a 48V lithium-ion battery could optimize energy usage patterns in vehicles.

     

    Thus, the 48V battery could focus on high-demand applications like air-conditioning while the 12V addresses vehicle startup, entertainment systems, and lighting systems."
    19 Mar, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Wayne> The Boston Consulting Group has studied new technology cost curves extensively and concluded that the cost of value added manufacturing activity decline by anywhere from 20% to 30% with each doubling of cumulative production volume. Over the next several years we can reasonably expect the price of the PbC to fall sharply as Axion learns how to make it better and smarter. That being said, no company can long survive by making something for $300 and selling it for $200. Cost savings are easy to pass along to customers when they're realized. It's absolute insanity for a small company to pass them along before they're realized.
    19 Mar, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1fUx6dG

     

    I found the fourth item down, the first article, titled "The future of 48 volt vehicle electrification" to tell a pretty good story of both the past 42V initiative which failed, and the current one to 48V which the author seems confident will gain traction.

     

    He notes that this time, American OEMs are not part of the initial driving group, and so are likely to lag European OEMs in adoption. He also makes the statement that the first 48v system is to be introduced by a German luxury brand in 2015...
    18 Mar, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Even though the Navigant report shows that volumes won't exceed a million cars per year (1% of the global new car market) until 2018, anybody who plans to participate in that market needs to be in the discussion group that will utilize this energy upgrade. The preparation for this change has been coming for a long time. In 2011 at the 15th Automobil Elektronik Kongress in Ludwigsburg, Car makers Audi, BMW, Daimler, Porsche and Volkswagen agreed to jointly incorporated a number of common architectural elements for their on-board 48v power network.

     

    http://bit.ly/PO6fXj

     

    In 2012, Chipmaker NXP responded to the request for 48 volt operation by announcing it is preparing for the 48V split-voltage supply networks in future cars, predominantly in hybrid electric and electric vehicles. The company announced the roll-out of a family of FlexRay network transceivers designed to run with 48V.

     

    http://bit.ly/PO6fXk

     

    As BMW and others attempt to build the infrastructure to a major 48v automotive design change, and considering the success of the joint BMW/Axion battery performance test completed in 2010, I would optimistically suspect that Axion is part of the discussion with BMW, to the point that if the supply chain can indeed be addressed, the necessary battery link to the 48v adaptation could be handled with Axion's lead-carbon PbC Battery.
    From a 7 year battery study completed in 2010, plug development in 2011, electronic development in 2012, and the suggestion that adaptation by a luxury German automaker is anticipated for 2015, this painfully slow process appears to be coming closer to reality.
    19 Mar, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    "Chipmaker NXP is preparing for the 48V split-voltage supply networks in future cars, predominantly in hybrid electric and electric vehicles."

     

    The PbC battery will never be used in hybrid or electric cars because in these vehicles the consumption of space (i.e. volume) is a critical design issue and PbC simply can't compete in that arena. The energy density (Wh per unit volume) of PbC batteries is about 50% that of ordinary lead-acid batteries and about 25% that of Li Ion. Cars just don't have the space needed to deal with this PbC disadvantage. The micro-hybrid (start stop) vehicles require less energy storage and in those applications the PbC seems able to compete in the two battery systems.

     

    If TG would simply allow the Axion engineers to publish the complete PbC performance characteristics just like the rest of the battery world does, I am certain that there would be less confusion about where this PbC technology has a place and where it simply doesn't have any chance of competing with other technologies.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gTLW42
    22 Mar, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Raises questions why he doesn't.
    22 Mar, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Just a final point about the schematic for the 48V Kia battery pack. Are we all in agreement that this:

     

    http://bit.ly/1iByySU

     

    doesn't look like this:

     

    http://bit.ly/1lEfbv7

     

    So that being said, if the Kia system uses many of the systems common to the LC super hybrid, and it seems to have the LC trademark on the battery pack, it doesn't seem to use the same battery/battery configuration. Whether that means they are using the Ultrabattery, the PbC, or some other lead acid battery with carbon paste, the configuration of the two battery sets is different.
    19 Mar, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The top figure was an array of seven 3-cell spiral wound battery modules from Exide. According to this 2013 presentation from Alan Cooper, the battery string is rated at 42V and 24 Ah. (http://bit.ly/1dJtA4K) So it basically has 1 kWh of energy capacity, which is lower than I would have expected.

     

    The second picture is obviously four 12-volt AGM batteries connected in series. My bet is that they're AGM with carbon paste additives, which would give the string about 3 kWh of energy capacity.

     

    The ALABC has never even mentioned the Ultrabattery as a contender for the LC SuperHybrid. It wanted to use the PbC but settled for AGM with carbon additives after Axion rejected the program. While there's no reason that a PbC couldn't be made with a traditional male connector post, I've never seen one.
    19 Mar, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Would an email to Mr. Cooper end the speculation about the Ultra and Kia rumors and any other hypotheses that have been floated since we heard about the new 48V systems in the pipeline?

     

    Maybe he could confirm that the LC sticker in Geneva was nothing more than a showing of support behind advance lead batteries (in general) and does not imply any finalized design choices.
    19 Mar, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, John, slide 26 of your link describing 42v is the same odd seven configuration that we were looking at on Monday.

     

    So, 6 volts per cell?

     

    Interesting that the battery is only 42v instead of 48v ...
    19 Mar, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> While Cooper probably has inside information on the KIA project, it would be improper for me to ask him. Under the circumstances, however, I don't feel any need to ask because I already know what the answer would be if Mr. Cooper could talk freely.

     

    The LC logo is an ALABC campaign to create a generic class branding for lead batteries with carbon paste additives. Last time I checked there were some 25 battery manufacturers developing or making products in that class because there are no IP restrictions and it's a technology that anybody can use. My bet is that they'll all be marketed with the LC logo.

     

    The LC logo has NEVER been used for a project involving the Ultrabattery. In fact, the only thing the Ultrabattery HEV program and the LC SuperHybrid program have in common is that the ALABC is involved in both of them.

     

    Look at the Cooper presentation again. There is no LC logo on the Ultrabattery pages or vehicles. The LC logo only appears in connection with the CPT BSG and the Valeo electric supercharger, which were both CPT products when the LC SuperHybrid project kicked off.

     

    Stefan> Exide's orbital battery is arranged like a six-pack of cylindrical cells that are a bit larger than a beer can. You can see a schematic on slide 19 of the Cooper presentation. What they apparently did for the 42 volt system was make three-cell modules (6-volts each) that were connected in a seven module series to get the required system voltage.
    19 Mar, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    "Last time I checked there were some 25 battery manufacturers developing or making products in that class because there are no IP restrictions and it's a technology that anybody can use."

     

    Do you have any understanding of what applications would or could be appropriate for lead carbon paste and not for PbC?
    19 Mar, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Based on the DCA graph Banner Battery presented at the 2012 ELBC in Paris it's my opinion that carbon paste additives ARE NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ANY micro-hybrid applications. Pull up the graph in another window and lets run through the numbers.

     

    http://bit.ly/QkCOK0

     

    During a one-minute engine off cycle a Gen1 micro-hybrid uses 600 watt-minutes of energy for the hotel loads. It makes no difference whether the system operates at 12-volts and 50 amps or 48-vollts and 12.5 amps. 600 watt-minutes of energy is 600 watt-minutes of energy.

     

    The Banner graph shows that AGM batteries with carbon paste additives cannot handle more than 15 amps of charge current after a few thousand engine-off cycles (miles). A 15 amp charging current on a 12 volt system is 180 watts. Since the energy delivered by a battery cannot exceed the energy accepted by the battery, a Gen1 micro-hybrid with a carbon paste battery must have at least 3 minutes and 20 seconds of engine run time for every minute of engine off time.

     

    If KIA planned to use 4 AGM batteries with carbon paste additives for a Gen1 micro-hybrid the numbers would probably balance. Each of the four batteries would accept 180 watt-minutes per minute of engine run time (720 watt-minutes total) and that would be enough to handle an engine off load of 600 watt-minutes per mile.

     

    When you get to a Gen3 system the hotel loads rocket upwards for (a) electric power steering, brakes and air conditioning during engine off rolling periods, (b) larger accessory hotel loads for longer engine off periods. Even though the BSG is able to deliver more charge current to the four batteries, those batteries cannot accept more than 720 watt-minutes per minute of recharging time.

     

    The lead-acid battery industry is pounding the table on the wonders of carbon additives because that's all they have to offer. It's like the record industry pounding the table on the wonders of vinyl when CDs first emerged and then pounding the table on the wonders of CDs when MP3 emerged. Legacy technologies never give up without a fight, but absent a miracle, carbon paste additives simply can't do the work.
    19 Mar, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    "While there's no reason that a PbC couldn't be made with a traditional male connector post, I've never seen one."

     

    Darn that "potential partner" that TG mentioned successfully built batteries in their plant w/ carbon NAM plates. ;-o
    19 Mar, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Really good post John. Was also curious if there were any other applications other than auto that they might want to target?
    19 Mar, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I don't know of any applications where carbon additives are particularly useful, but the things I don't know usually outnumber the things I do know by a wide margin.
    19 Mar, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Interesting then that Kia said they intend on using what is just a more expensive version of a quick-fail device. That has "Help Needed" written all over it. Unless, of course, somebody has made gigantic strides in carbon paste improvements.

     

    TG must be ordering some 5 pt harnesses by now. I'll be watching the import trackers for signs of that. 8^P
    19 Mar, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Trojan is targeting them for off grid apps and unstable grid apps where PSOC is more predominant.

     

    Isn't unstable grid telcom where Axion's other presentation partner indicated the PbC added costs might be acceptable.

     

    SmartCarbon™- Trojan’s Answer to Partial State of Charge.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dpRDCq
    19 Mar, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Nuclear Submarine Batteries

     

    US Naval submarines use three types of lead-acid battery cells: PDX-57, ASB-49, and LLL-69 Type cells.

     

    http://stanford.io/1dp...
    19 Mar, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    So John,
    First of all, I agree that the picture of the batteries from Kia's battery pack are not PbCs (or at least not ones in any format we've seen to this point.) So then, taking all you have said above, here's the $64K question...if a lead acid battery with carbon paste can't work in a Gen3 type hybrid like Kia's concept car, and you don't believe they are using Ultrabatteries because the battery case has the LC trademark on it, then what is Kia doing??? Because if I read what you are saying correctly, you are arguing that Kia "is" showing us a battery pack with four, carbon paste batteries that can't do what they say it is going to do?

     

    Something there just doesn't add up to the mind of this simple scientist like myself.
    19 Mar, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It all goes back to my conversations with Eckhard Karden of Ford in September 2012. The engineers and battery scientists know that the batteries they're using will not support optimal performance of the mechanical Gen1 stop-start systems. The bean counters, on the other hand, know that the potential warranty claim costs from using crappy batteries is less than the front-end production cost of using good batteries. So crap wins.

     

    It isn't a smart way to think or a responsible way to think, but it is a common way to think. Until the regulators get the message and prohibit cheap greenwash, the laws of economic gravity will be honored.
    19 Mar, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the "crap wins" argument can fly with the 48-v system because too much of the car's performance depends on it, unlike a 12-v stop-start only system. The battery in the current demonstration model they are showing today may not be the final battery that they use, but I have to believe that Kia thinks there is a lead-carbon battery that will last at least long enough to save them major warranty claims and embarrassment. Perhaps carbon additives and carbon foams and other carbon-added techniques have improved somewhat since what they were showing in 2012.
    19 Mar, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    NGS, you keep pounding the table on this, and I agree with you. Power loss and mpg loss is a serious concern for cost-conscious buyers. People aren't buying the BMW because it's has SS, but because it's a high end BMW. Those who buy Kia expect a reliable car and the rated mpg.

     

    Kia has worked very hard to break into the American market. They have a good reputation to keep, as they are still the underdogs. They are not unlike Japanese carmakers of old who valued quality over anything else. I don't think they will bean-count for their next 10Q. They are looking at the long run. A shoddy product will ruin their future in all car models.

     

    Anecdotally I have some friends who bought lower cost Kias in their 20s and they report that their cars still run fine. That alone has made me receptive to buying a Kia whereas before I didn't. Well, before their lead-carbon news anyway. Conversely, I still virtually eliminate any Big 3 American car as a possibility. The only exception is the Corvette.. and a Tesla =)
    19 Mar, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    As long as the engine is running a 48-volt micro-hybrid with crappy batteries will perform just fine. The only noticeable difference to the consumer will be fewer engine off events. So far experience has shown that consumers do notice, but they don't get upset enough to go through the aggravation and hassle of a service call, particularly if the first service call temporarily fixes the problem for a few days before it returns.

     

    Unless there has been an earth-shattering advance in carbon paste additives that the ALABC has been keeping hidden under a bushel basket, AGM with carbon paste will give them cool mechanical systems that don't function properly.
    19 Mar, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Kias are cheaper than Toyotas across the board. If I were a Kia exec, I'd spend the extra money for quality now, so that Kia could raise prices when consumer perception catches up. That's where the real margins will come in.
    19 Mar, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    If I were a KIA exec I wouldn't show all my cards 18 months before I plan to play them. I certainly wouldn't play them in a way that gives a supplier the kind of leverage that showing a PbC battery in Geneva would give Axion.
    19 Mar, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Maybe just maybe EP and Axion have been collaborating together even more closely than any of us might have imagined, and what we're seeing in there are actually four EP-manufactured PbCs in EP style cases...

     

    It's either that or we're all going to have to sing this song:

     

    Puff the Magic Carbon, really gives them some C..
    And they frolick in the autopress in a land called fanta-see
    Little Johnson's Papers loves that fancy stuff
    Which brought them several OEM's, who fell right for their bluff...oh!

     

    Puff the Magic Carbon, gave them some mighty C..
    Which solved all of their prob-e-lems, why won't you just agree?

     

    That carbon paste and lots of prayers, is all we ever need...
    And if you're not onboard with that, why there's still a warran-tee..

     

    Oh, Together they would travel, to many a tech re-view
    to spin their yarns and tell their tales
    and have the rooms embrace their spew!

     

    CEO and bean counters would bow when ere they claimed
    That carbon paste and lots of prayer would win them all the fame...

     

    (No matter that the car wouldn't run, or the battery turned up lame...)

     

    They listened to all the magic, the power-points from stars, and bought right in they gamely did, and signed up all their cars...

     

    Puff the Magic Carbon, really brings the C
    And even if you have some doubts, there ain't no great plan B...

     

    (Except of course you're not onboard, there's still that warran-tee...)

     

    But then one day it happened, the engines would start no more, and all them pi$$ed off drivers, they hired them lawyers galore..

     

    Puff the Magic Carbon, yeah really brought the C
    And if you think that's funny, yawl enjoy the lawsuit spree!... Oh!
    19 Mar, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    John: If you are Kia, why even say the system uses a lead carbon battery in the first place?
    19 Mar, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Because it's unique and it's high performance without a huge price premium. KIA shoppers don't buy cool. They buy reliable cost-effective cheap.
    19 Mar, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    I disagree about cheap vs cool for Kia buyers. They at least think they are buying both. The Kia Soul, e.g., is a hit.

     

    But I really liked, "hidden under a bushel basket." I almost fell off my chair I laughed so hard.
    19 Mar, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    I think the Hamster commercials try and strike a cool tone:

     

    http://bit.ly/PQGhm3
    19 Mar, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    I agree. Even I think they're fun. Lot of hipsters in the City that can't afford a Mini buy a Soul (used to buy an Xb but Scion/Toyota dropped the ball). And no surprise at all that Hyundai's 1st elec car will be the Soul. I remember the Optima got big scores for looks, too. Hyundai did a great move when it hired that European designer to make all it's stuff look way better. Combined with a small army of inexpensive engineers, they're formidable global competitors. Would be overjoyed for them to use the PbC. Excellent fit, I think. High tech AND cost-effective.

     

    Not saying that Toyota would be bad, though...lol.
    19 Mar, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Insight: Work ethic, comic hero make Koreans hot shots in car design

     

    http://reut.rs/PQKXZc
    19 Mar, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Great stuff.
    19 Mar, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Adds a new dimension to the word "driven."
    19 Mar, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    apm> I think you've hit on a key piece. The industry knows that the limiting factor for a major advance in greening automotive technology is battery performance. It also poses an extremely difficult set of problems to overcome.

     

    I think it's possible that Kia unveiled the 48v BSG concept deliberately with "lead-carbon" to give a clear message to the industry that it is serious about this new revolutionary type of battery. This could start gears in motion throughout the industry that help facilitate the coming mild hybrid revolution. For example, component manufacturers related to 48v BSG systems could get the message that this is going to be big and real and therefore pursue further development in that area.

     

    One thing I am sure of is that a lot of industry ears stood very erect at the Kia news release of "lead-carbon" being chosen for their next gen hybrids. The stock market's ears sure did, though only for a few days.
    19 Mar, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I'm not entirely sure that the market action we saw had anything to do with KIA's 48-volt system.

     

    Since I write about a small universe of companies, I maintain an Excel workbook that tracks the daily trading activity on 17 companies in the energy storage, EV and fuel cell space and automatically calculates moving average prices and volumes for all of them.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gCboGX

     

    If you download my workbook and take a look at the fuel cell companies (BLDP, FCEL, PLUG), you'll see that their volumes all went crazy in late-February.

     

    About the same time, ALTI, AXPW, CBAK, HPJ, MXWL and ZBB each had massive jumps in their volumes.

     

    Any time I see the same pattern across a diverse group of companies that won't all be impacted by a particular news item, I tend to believe the news item had nothing to do with the pattern.
    20 Mar, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    John> No question small cap alt energy storage stocks have been hot. Perhaps the hottest area of the market for months now. If you get SA's email digests you know that lately little PLUG has become a focal point of article writing and commenting in a universe of some 5000 stocks, which is quite amazing.

     

    However AXPW's price and volume made a huge move up starting March 5th, the very day the Kia was unveiled in Geneva. There was a palpable sense on this APC that something very different was going on with AXPW that day and for a few days to follow. http://yhoo.it/1oOjhxV It had to be new buyers, not the old, piling in. Volume and price both ran hot, which means that dollar volume which is more revealing really exploded. I have to believe these new investors and traders jumped in due to the Kia announcement. It was not a gradual buildup but more like bam on March 5th something very different was afoot with AXPW.
    20 Mar, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    When I look at the volume chart in the header I reach a different conclusion.
    20 Mar, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    RA> The Kia system was actually displayed on March 4, to little movement in AXPW. Furthermore, it was previewed sometime in early February. If people bought because of Kia, it definitely wasn't Axionistas.

     

    My view is that it was a combination of sector movement and also John's end of PIPE prediction. The catalyst was a relatively tepid news item, the hiring of James Smith, that pushed the price out of 9 cents. Following that, momo traders and Axionistas piled in thinking the stock was about to fly away.

     

    I'm still of the opinion they will be back as the chart develops.
    20 Mar, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    We need news! Now! After the other guys (ZBB, PLUG) have had their run, while the stock is hovering just above its 200 day, and the sellers have left the building. Perfect storm! Come on TG! O ye battery Gods, throw us a bone!
    20 Mar, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> Agree to disagree. The articles I saw about the Kia unveiling with "lead-carbon" were dated March 5 except for the one article in February which perhaps didn't get noticed much.

     

    But the March 5 articles were reports on the March 4 showing. So it's logical that March 5 would be the date the news reached the masses (industry followers) who weren't present in Geneva and spurred many of them to buy Axion stock as the leader of "lead-carbon".

     

    Nothing about the heady trading action I recall of March 5-7 suggests to me that the same old Axionistas were suddenly scrambling over each other to buy stock at more than double the price they could buy it for one week prior. If PIPEnd were the only news to drive the price up I would expect a more gradual rise for the simple reason that PIPEnd was old news.
    20 Mar, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    RA, IIRC, March 5 was also the day it was announced David DiGiacinto joined the Axion BOD.
    22 Mar, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, If you take a normal automotive SLI battery charge system voltage of 13.8-14.4 VDC and do a worst case charge voltage exercise for a 48 VDC system. 14.4 x 4= 57.6 VDC. This voltage is dangerously close to the 60 VDC limit the auto industry has defined as being the threshold voltage limit one has to use extraordinary measures to prevent anyone getting shocked by for reasons of personal safety. Extraordinary = expensive. I contend that this voltage is probably too close for comfort with all the transients in the electrical system along with component variation to allow for the automakers to assure they would never exceed the 60 VDC limit if they were to build a 48VDC system.
    22 Mar, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, nope, the DiG PR was Feb 6th. March 5th was when Axion announced Smith as a consultant and liaison. IMO, neither PR had any material effect on the stk price.
    22 Mar, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    03/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 81, MinTrSz: 90, MaxTrSz: 32500, Vol: 492742, AvTrSz: 6083
    Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 0.1765, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1707
    # Buys, Shares: 44 274867, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1725
    # Sells, Shares: 34 215175, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1683
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 2700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1749
    Buy:Sell 1.28:1 (55.78% "buys"), DlyShts 117468 (23.84%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.59%

     

    There was an incongruous set of trades that ran 12:38-12:44 today, detailed in comments starting in the concentrator here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In summary, when trading had been running at an up ~4.48% level, prior immediate trade being $0.1750, 92.9K of trades went at $0.1550-$0.1701, VWAP $0.1652, 100% sells. I can only guess that someone put in a market order and the market-makers (ATDF was best on both sides then) quickly adjusted the range down to take advantage of the order.

     

    Regardless, that put the kibosh on what was shaping up to be a nice gain, fitting with my post yesterday that some appreciation looked possible. C'est la vie!

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0766 vs. $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1376 vs. $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157 and $0.0887 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -4.91%, 10.00%, 1.13%, -59.31% and -74.17% respectively. Price spread today was 10.43% vs. 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63% and 6.32% on prior days.

     

    There were two exceptional trades totaling 11,940 shares at $0.1550, included in the oddball bunch above that affected the low and spread. Without these two trades, the low would be $0.1600, down only -1.84% instead of -4.91% and the spread would be 10.31% rather than 13.87%.

     

    With a VWAP of $0.1701 yesterday, up 6.02%, I said there was a possibility we won't see near-term consolidation. Today looked like it was on the way up, bypassing consolidation, until that oddball trading from 12:38 – 12:44 dropped the price range from up 4.48% to be in the red. In spite of that ...

     

    Today's high and low were lower than yesterday's, which from a traditional TA perspective just moves us more strongly back into the possible consolidation scenario. This would also be supported by the lower volume on an up day.

     

    There were only four larger trades (>= 15K) today, ranging from 17.9K to 32.5K. There pricing was in the mid-range of today's pricing at $0.17 - $0.175 and constituted only about 80.5K, 1/6th of day's volume, so I won't break them down today.

     

    In the non-traditional TA area, today's 55.78% buys were lower than the prior 68.5% and 76.3% buys, which had climbed ...

     

    My original inflection point calculations' one day changes continue with all six periods showing reduced weakening and the 5-day period remains above zero ...

     

    The newer version , which considers factors other than just buy:sell and volume, yesterday had one-day changes with all periods improved and the 5-day above zero. Today both the five and ten-day periods are above zero and the other periods show reducing weakening even with that oddball trading period ruining the days apparent path towards good gains. The aggregate change ...

     

    The pattern on the chart continues its roll up on all periods, although the upward bias abated a small amount. It's still suggesting that strength may be starting to return. Look at the test version of the charts.

     

    The average trade size, which I've mentioned the last few days, dropped below the averages, which had ...

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    ZZZZZzzzzz......ZZZZZZ...
    19 Mar, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, Longing for the "good ole' days"? It was purgatory but at least you could come and go! :-I
    19 Mar, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I think he was commenting on my EOD stuff.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Oh, OK. I thought it was concerning today's volume.

     

    Anyway, reading your tech. analysis briefings may not be as exciting as watching the Dirty Dozen but it sure doesn't put me to sleep! ;-)

     

    Always much appreciated as well.
    19 Mar, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I find your EOD stuff fascinating.

     

    I was commenting about the volume.

     

    Now would be a great time for some news.
    19 Mar, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    PY: Sometimes it bores me to death. Add junk like today's bid/ask movement: four moves on the ask, last at 09:59 and ~12 (a couple I missed) on the bid all by ATDF up but for one brief pullback from $0.1652 to $0.1651 before continuing up.

     

    Now ATDF $0.1657 and ... WHOOPS! VFIN just moved from $0.155 to $0.158 and NITE dropped their $0.1606 they had all morning and retreat to $0.15.

     

    The torrid pace is killing me.

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    In honor of Stefan's comment last Concentrator

     

    "cutting through the fog is difficult given the less than forthcoming positions that various battery pushers take"

     

    and cause Hell, we got nothing better to do while we wait wait wait, I offer

     

    http://bit.ly/OBCBmK

     

    I will leave to one of you wags to rewrite the lyrics as "The Piper"
    19 Mar, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    By industry standards isn't a rechargable battery considered to have failed after it looses 20 % of its capacity? This article concerns a test between two sets of Nissan Leafs.

     

    Does Quick Charging Hurt Battery Life? Total Miles Are More Important

     

    "By 40,000 miles, the difference was still three percent--22 percent degradation for the Level 2 cars, 25 percent for the quick-charging cars."

     

    http://bit.ly/OBNJA3
    19 Mar, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Accepted industry standards say that a battery is toast once it hits 80% of rated capacity. The lithium legend, of course, says that the capacity declines will be linear from 100% to 0% which is why used lithium-ion batteries will have a long and fruitful second life in stationary storage when their primary mission is accomplished.

     

    Unfortunately Professor Jeff Dahn at Dalhousie University never got that particular memo.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nkjnlp

     

    This is an hour of deep battery nerd stuff, but fascinating nonetheless.
    19 Mar, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I'm confused somewhat by the test. I understand that they are comparing quick charging to slow charging of the Leaf's Li-ion batteries, however, they are only doing the comparison for batteries that are drained more than 90% before they are recharged. If my wife does that to her laptop, or I do it to my cell phone every day, I assume the batteries will not last since batteries don't like to be discharged that far all the time. Hybrid car batteries last a long time because they are constantly getting recharged. So shouldn't part of the test be to look at cars that are only driven to 50% discharge and then recharged? Last time I checked, the average commute wasn't 90% of the battery pack, and if it was, then I feel sorry for the fool who bought a Leaf for that purpose, but has a wife who wants him to stop off at the grocery store on the way home from work!
    19 Mar, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    John:: Fascinating video. Actually very complimentary of Tesla - as far as battery tech goes anyway. Seems that their are two failure modes for Li-Ion if I understood correctly. One is just sitting around fully charged at high temps. The other is charge/discharge cycling.

     

    Indelco: I believe they guy says in the video that low state of charge in Li-Ion is not very dangerous - unless it gets too low. The leaf keeps shuts down before you get to that state. The real problem with the leaf is lack of cooling to keep bad chemical reactions from happening.

     

    One of my take-aways from the presentation is that in many ways Li-Ion isn't that compatible with cars in general. Electric cars are most appropriate in warm climates, since you have no need for gasoline engine waste heat, and batteries don't work well below 30F. But then he tells us that Li-Ion batteries are chemically damaged at high temperatures. So active cooling is required.
    19 Mar, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, The intent of their study was to compare quick charging to slow charging only, so us trying to derive other things from the data is what it is. BTW, their sample size even makes their conclusion suspect because the data will not hold water with such a small sample size.

     

    BTW, Automakers have to design for extremes or they get in trouble. As such they need to design for the guy that is fully discharging the battery daily and using the vehicle under worst case conditions. Otherwise they get lawsuits as Nissan is experiencing.

     

    In the end though you are perfectly correct. If you want to drive EVs you better research if they really fit your needs because the sales people will push something on you that clearly will not. In the Nissan forms there are more than a few people with vehicles that in short order will not meet their needs relative to driving distance.
    19 Mar, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    I thought I'd add a few thoughts.
    The test was done during the winter so while it is in AZ the extreme heat was not a factor.

     

    The Leafs made in the new Smyrna, Tenn. plant and their batteries; according to Nissan, will not fare better than the originals.

     

    The Leafs with battery capacity loss now extends to FL.
    Nissan was forced to warranty their batteries capacity loss. There already was a warranty for defects on the battery.

     

    "Nissan will repair or replace a Leaf's battery within five years or 60,000 miles if it loses more than 30 percent of its charge capacity. For Leaf owners, that means the warranty kicks in if the 12-bar battery gauge falls under nine bars. The new warranty is the second for the Leaf's batteries; the first covers defects and flaws for up to eight years or 100,000 miles.

     

    But even with the new warranty, Nissan says the fix may only restore a diminished battery's capacity to nine bars. That's because batteries aren't designed to last forever, and some loss of capacity is to be expected."

     

    If you can live with 52 mi. of range, this may not be a problem.

     

    http://bit.ly/OCK5WI
    19 Mar, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    No surprise that I loved that video?

     

    Great post John!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Busy day: traded $18,070.7260 so far!

     

    But it's going to improve since NITE has moved ahead on the ask to $0.17, undercutting ATDF's all-day $0.1749 offer while ATDF has upped the bid to $0.168! ;-))

     

    But no one budged after eight minutes - they won't give up that 2/10ths of a penny without a Herculean struggle, I'm sure.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    GM to build 2.5 million new 'Ecotec' small engines by 2017:

     

    http://reut.rs/OCpt0O

     

    --All of the engines will have the capability to use the fuel-saving, so-called "stop-start" process in which the engine shuts down when the vehicle is at traffic lights or otherwise stationary for short periods of time. Stop-start will be a standard feature on the new Cruze in China.
    19 Mar, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    So assuming other lead carbon batteries are not up to the task, and Axion will eventually be adopted as a micro-hybrid solution, I guess we are back to the question of primary importance for Axion investors or potential investors on this Concentrator:

     

    Can TG close anything substantial, as he has suggested for 8 months that he can, before the need to raise money?

     

    Or will there be a further relief rally from the PIPErs exit sufficient to raise the price to a respectable level to raise funds?
    19 Mar, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> I'm not sure that we've seen a relief rally yet. Volume skyrocketed at the beginning of March, but it did that for several companies in the storage sector including HPJ, MXWL and ZBB. Since the PIPErs were not out of stock yet, they took full advantage of the situation and crushed what was a blistering rally for everybody else.

     

    Let's face it, most Axionistas are suffering from Battered Stockholder Syndrome and like other victims of abuse they've come to believe they deserve the mistreatment. Since very few Axionistas believe the abusers are really dead or dying, they're still cowering in a corner convinced that nothing good can ever happen.

     

    When the relief rally comes you'll know it.
    19 Mar, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    I think the relief rally will follow a visible path to a revenue ramp.
    19 Mar, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I think you're confusing a relief rally with a business fundamentals rally.
    19 Mar, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    We made the big-time today - traded $25,861.5560.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The lowest volume since 28-Aug-13.
    19 Mar, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Obviously we all expect a huge run-up into earnings - maybe even exceeding $26,000! :P
    19 Mar, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Ugg; Axionsistas put their wallets away above 15 cents it seems. Need new eyes on this name.
    19 Mar, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Big Time

     

    http://bit.ly/UGApKl
    -------
    LABs and supercaps. :(

     

    Ricardo's HyBoost Featured On "Jay Leno's Garage"

     

    "The project was led by Ricardo plc, a multi-industry consultancy for engineering, technology, project innovation and strategy, in partnership with Controlled Power Technologies, the European Advanced Lead Acid Battery Consortium, Ford, Imperial College London, and Valeo, with co-funding from the UK government-backed Technology Strategy Board. Some of the features of the vehicle that are highlighted in the video include:

     

    -Downsized, highly boosted gasoline engine which gives improved fuel economy at low cost

     

    -Electric supercharger for improved response

     

    -Low cost energy storage comprised of 12V lead acid battery plus supercapacitors

     

    -12+X, 6 kW mild hybridization system which allows;

     

    --Intelligent in-gear engine start / stop operation with some sailing mode capability

     

    --Adaptive mild regenerative braking

     

    --Optimized torque assist for both increased fuel economy and enhanced driving feel

     

    --More efficient electrical generation at 12+X volts

     

    http://bit.ly/1gc7muB
    19 Mar, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    I was testing the piper to see whether they have excess shares to sell. They wouldn't sell me 10,000 shares @ .168. I placed that order between 2 and 3 pm.
    19 Mar, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    In the attached video in the Leno post;

     

    Electric supercharger is on for 2.5 to 3 seconds until the turbo spools up. The cost adder for the 12 VDC hyboost system is about 1100 USD. At 12 minutes Jay asks why not a battery for the system. The response was that 12 VDC was not high enough and at the time they did a study on advanced LAB but the caps work better.

     

    The tone of his voice when he talks of the advanced lead acid is interesting. I'm guessing, in a similar fashion as depicted in the V8 commercial, he hit his forehead and said,"I could of had a PbC."

     

    http://bit.ly/1gBeATh
    19 Mar, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    iinde, what a great tag line for an ad campaign. Or for a lobbying effort, for that matter. Lol
    20 Mar, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this has been posted before, but some info that was news to me:

     

    "Recently Axion supplied 600 batteries with its Powercube system to Bysolar, for a commercial application, for a food industry business that lost its electricity supply when Hurricane Sandy struck and wants to be prepared should a similar event cut off power in future."

     

    and

     

    "Axion has investigated two business models for its Powercube system, to sell its PowerCube system to customers, for example datacenters, and also to find customers that will buy power from Axion’s Powercube system, benefitting from paying less for electricity, while Axion generates revenues from selling the power to these customers"

     

    http://bit.ly/1ovNUKc
    19 Mar, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    That's a pretty comprehensive overview of the space. There are some errors but that's unavoidable. It's also clear that somebody did some digging and was given details that weren't previously discussed. On balance I think it's a very worthwhile read and a great find.

     

    WTG 432382!
    19 Mar, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    So, Axion is looking at a business model where they sell power from their PowerCubes? And to think that a certain unnamed person on this concentrator called me silly when I had suggested earlier that they could generate revenue with a fleet of power cubes.
    19 Mar, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    What to make of the quote in the second Axion paragraph from the article linked (pasted below)?

     

    East Penn we can confirm; who else does Axion play nice with? Could Exide be back in the circle of friends maybe; Enersys was also mentioned as a neighbor?

     

    >>
    "Already two large lead acid battery makers are looking to implement Axion’s technology into their manufacturing in response to demand from end-user customers that want more than one source of lead carbon batteries".
    19 Mar, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    NGS> The rest of the paragraph says that Axion has rejected the storage as a service model and is focused exclusively on end user sales, at least for the near-term.

     

    The reason is simple. Storage as a service is one of the most capital intensive business models imaginable and for a company like Axion that's shown no particular talent at raising huge piles of money on attractive terms, storage as a service is a sucking swirling financial black hole with questionable prospects for return OF capital much less return ON capital.

     

    Until somebody can show how Axion could finance a storage as a service business model, it will remain silly to talk about converting Axion's limited working capital into an insignificant long-term revenue stream.

     

    Bazoooka> When TG discussed the two large battery makers at the stockholders meeting he said both were multi-nationals. East Penn is big, but it's not a multi-national.
    19 Mar, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    "Replacing all the lead in a lead acid battery’s negative plate results in an ultracapacitor, like the technology developed by Axion Power."
    Instead of competing as an expensive less effective battery, why not as a cheaper more effective ultracapacitor?
    It's all in the "spin".
    19 Mar, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    432,

     

    You have been a great add to this board. You should try to change your handle. Otherwise I like 4,3,2,... since its similar to a countdown and only 1 number away from lift-off hence it seems appropriate for Axion.
    19 Mar, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: "It's all in the "spin".

     

    You got that right. And allowing for double entendre, we could apply it to the electric supercharger that "spins" up almost immediately! :-))

     

    In that case it is indeed all about the spin!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (282) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Maybe 432... should change his moniker to Sherlock!!!
    20 Mar, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    03/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 152034, AvTrSz: 4344
    Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 0.1749, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1692
    # Buys, Shares: 19 114499, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1706
    # Sells, Shares: 16 37535, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1650
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.05:1 (75.31% "buys"), DlyShts 74099 (48.74%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 197.41%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0767 vs. $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1354 vs. $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478 and $0.1157 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, -0.91%, -0.86%, -69.15% and -36.92% respectively. Price spread today was 12.84% vs. 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53% and 33.63% on prior days.

     

    Although with low volume this may note be worth the effort, I did want to note that there were two exceptional trades: 1 of 1.5K at $0.1550 and 1 of 20K at $0.1749. These two trades set the high and the low for the day. Without these two trades, the low would be ...

     

    The daily short sales percentage continues to work as expected with a 48.74% when “buy” percentage is high, as it was today.

     

    With a VWAP of $0.1692, -0.86 from yesterday's %$0.1701 and very low volume, we're back to looking like consolidation. But since we had the lowest volume since 1/10/13's 151.80K, I don't know that we should give much weight to any of today's stuff.

     

    There were only two larger trades ...

     

    ... I'll just mention that the 75.31% buys is not unusual for very low-volume days. For the lowest 30 volumes since I began recording, which have an average of ~65K, the average buy percentage is 48.92%. Keep in mind that these go back as far as February of 2012 and it would take more than the cursory look I gave to determine if there's been a significant change in this behavior in recent action.

     

    The pattern on the experimental chart continues its roll up ... It's suggestion that strength may be starting to return is weakening ...

     

    Much less effort (and verbiage) than usual, but the usual breakdowns are in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Do the PIPErs get another round of stock? I thought we were done.
    19 Mar, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The 196.5 million shares outstanding at January 28th suggest that a total of 83 million shares were issued to the PIPErs prior to that date. When you include the February true up and the March pre-payment the total stock issuances approaches 95 million for $9 million in debt. Those numbers lead me to the conclusion that the PIPErs have already received their final share payments, but we can't know for sure until the Form 10-K is filed.

     

    When the Form 10-K is filed, the balance sheet will disclose the total number of shares outstanding on 31-Dec-13 and the facing page will disclose the total number of shares outstanding sometime in mid- to late-March. If the March number is in the 210 million share range, the PIPErs should be done.
    19 Mar, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article. Only had time to scan it.

     

    Found this at the bottom though:

     

    Ultrabattery rolls out:

     

    The Ultrabattery is also advanced in the certification process of major automotive manufacturers.
    19 Mar, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, yep, saw that, too. Hoping it's incorrect. Maybe someone can contact the author and ask about that.
    20 Mar, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I've really not been tracking that because John does the job much better than I could. I just figure I'll track the issue price stuff until we know for sure their tanks are empty.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Any safety issues if the Kia system fails? Like power steering fail?

     

    Toyota just got dinged hard for their acceleration cover ups:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Mar, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It's unlikely that a battery problem would compromise safety because the engine-off functionality is disabled whenever the batteries don't have an adequate charge.

     

    Fuel economy would suffer, but not safety or driver comfort.
    19 Mar, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, iinde has pointed out that the surprise of 20% less power could be a safety issue in certain circumstances, such as at intersections ("low end torque" per the Kia image). Would need further details I think, like does the 20% only come from the batteries? Maybe u guys already know that answer?

     

    Either way, remember, the Kia system adds power, too--not just fuel economy and emissions benefits.
    20 Mar, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    If we assume that a major auto manufacturer would be executing a "PbC like" battery contract with a "major" in which we would "only" be a supplier, and which hasn't started production yet, would the fact that we've reached a supplier agreement (memorandum of understanding?) with said "major" be considered material information that has to be disclosed?

     

    If one were to ask TG directly on the conference call something like how many "memorandum of understandings" had been reached (without asking with whom), is there any chance he could answer the question with something useful?

     

    Is there a better term that MOU?

     

    Axion has previously disclosed partner discussions; what's the question(s) with the least weasel room we should ask about whether they're ongoing still with multiple partners, or have been terminated with some number of partners?

     

    It would behoove us to work out this "weasel factor" strongly before we waste the precious few opportunities we get on the call ... especially since we seem to start late every time.

     

    In a perfect world some subset of us would largely agree on say 1-3 questions that we pledge to ask FIRST if we're at the front of the queue (and knowing that we may well get cut off after 1 question.)

     

    Opinions on constructing those questions here (or separate SA instablog as had been done in the past) vrs. say in a Google shared document? Maybe start with "topics" discussion on SA then move later to the actual questions in shared document. Don't know if Google has a good polling capability or not. Maybe you know a better option for this kind of thing ...

     

    You can mail me here if you have thoughts you prefer to make in private ... or if you have a question or topic you would like me to offer to this discussion without attribution.

     

    Think about it .... what's the most important and direct question for us that can get answered?
    19 Mar, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    What is the limiting factor in signing a deal with a third party manufacturer?

     

    or

     

    Have negotiations with the auto customers and a third party manufacturer progressed favorably, and if not, what is the limiting factor?
    20 Mar, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    Old news around here but the idea is starting to sink into the mass psyche.

     

    "Government Agency Warns If 9 Substations Are Destroyed, The Power Grid Could Be Down For 18 Months"

     

    http://bit.ly/1owXvQZ

     

    Hope springs eternal. Still not a good investment sentiment ... this "hope" thingy.
    19 Mar, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    A 2-min NBR video on this report: --- http://bit.ly/1nFnk4o

     

    After watching this, I thought about our politicians in Washington who believe little will be accomplished this election year, and so are all mostly focused on re-election. I guess they can't be bothered to focus on a vulnerable electrical grid which, according to the video, "could cause an epic economic and social disruption"
    20 Mar, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • shaggydude4hire
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Rocky Mountain Institute has written up a pretty interesting article on grid defection. Seemingly trying to state how the solar panel and battery technology will remove both commercial and retail customers off the grid much to the dismay of the masses who would be taxed more by their regulated utility. One of the reasons they cite for this momentum (even beyond economics of the PV/battery combo) to get off the grid is tied to DRich's news article on grid resilience in the face of the Metcalf substation attack that spurred all this physical security evaluations by FERC and NERC.

     

    http://bit.ly/1kKmEpI
    20 Mar, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    More evidence of grid storage picking up speed.

     

    GOVERNMENT-LED STORAGE PROGRAMMES ISLANDS

     

    "The examples here are far from exhaustive, especially when including various grid operators in the US that are mandating for fast-responding resources for provision of frequency regulation services. But the field is gathering pace as more jurisdictions and regulators take proactive steps to incorporate energy storage into their transmission and distribution (T&D) networks."

     

    http://bit.ly/1drVKxL
    20 Mar, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    ""So far experience has shown that consumers do notice, but they don't get upset enough to go through the aggravation and hassle of a service call,...""

     

    It can be added that when the customers do take their cars back to the dealership for complaints of a malfunctioning stop/start, the dealership blames the customer by telling them that they are not driving the car often enough or for long enough on commutes or trips, and then the dealership
    recharges the battery and charges the customer 150 Euros,
    and within one week, the car's stop/start stops working again.

     

    Some of these car owners are posting on the BMW and C-Max forums that they regularily drive their cars throughout Europe for business or visiting friends and family for up to 500 kilometers every weekend in addition to their regular commuting during the week.
    20 Mar, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    More on the Furakawa UB. I am referring to the following
    info as relating to the Furakawa UB as this info comes from
    material written and published by the Furakawa Battery Company. Detailed info on the East Penn variety of the UB is difficult to obtain. However, the seeming similarity across the UB landscape, as we presently know it, would allow for comparison with or application to the East Penn UB.

     

    Essentially, the UB is part lead acid battery and part (ultra)capacitor. The Furakawa material desribes the UB as having one positive electrode and two negative electrodes, all housed within one battery case.

     

    The positive side of the UB consists of a single positive electrode made of lead dioxide. The negative side of the UB consists of two negative electrodes. One of these negative electrodes is made of spongy lead, and the second of these two negative electrodes is made of porous carbon. Both of these two negative electrodes share in common the single positive electrode within the battery. Since these two negative electrodes are separate, they can both be connected to the single common positive electrode in parallel.

     

    In theory, the capacitive negative electrode and the lead negative electrode can each assume a portion of the load directed towards the negative side of the battery.

     

    As described, this would result in the UB consisting of a lead acid battery coupled with an asymmetrical ultracapacitor, all within a single battery case.

     

    Note that the patent application from 2008 includes a provision for the UB to use carbon material mixed and pasted onto a single negative electrode or unmixed and pasted separately onto a region of a single negative electrode. It also provides for the use of tin dioxide as an additive instead of carbonaceous material.

     

    So, it appears at this point in time that the UB can be made in more than one variety; it can be made with only one negative electrode or two negative electrodes.

     

    As an aside, another trade-off to note in battery development is that the addition of some additives
    (perhaps not necessarily just carbonaceous material) in order to reduce negative electrode sulfation can cause a softening of the material in the positive electrode, hence requiring modifications to the positive electrode.
    20 Mar, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The big issue facing the Ultrabattery and AGM batteries with carbon paste additives is one that you've mentioned before.

     

    "T]he lead and the carbon paste or additive do not accept a charge evenly. The lead accepts the charge first. Once the lead in the electrode is fully dynamically charged, only then will the carbon additive accept any charge. This works the same way on discharge -- the lead discharges all of its energy before the carbon additive discharges any of its energy."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The big advantage of the PbC is the ability to behave like a supercapacitor and deliver a big surge of power or accept a big surge of power instantaneously. When you have any lead on the negative plates, the instantaneous capacitive response is muted (but not eliminated) because the lead wants to react first in both discharge and charge environments.
    20 Mar, 05:19 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Do patent lawyers ever work on "commission"? It doesn't matter what the form factor is, the language in Axion Power's original patent covers the use of any carbon material in the negative electrode. Every single "lead carbon" battery out there is a potential patent infringement. Never mind that they don't work.
    20 Mar, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, Not the case regarding carbon added to the NAM. Adding carbon to the NAM, while not well understood as to how it functions, has been around far longer than Axion has.
    20 Mar, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Any sign of a patent suit might even benefit AXPW stock as it will get people to realize the value of our IP, which is certainly not represented in the market cap.
    20 Mar, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    NAM?
    20 Mar, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Negative Active Mass - the sponge lead paste.
    20 Mar, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Whatever. The UB, the ALABC, Exide, and (probably others) can all GTH.

     

    We need a serious partner in the battery manufacturing space and we need it right now.
    20 Mar, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, For automotive I agree. We need them soon as the autos will not IMO deal directly w/ Axion for manufacturing. BMW nurtured them well I think. Now do they or someone else really want PbC is the million dollar question.

     

    I am not as concerned about the cost of the PbC as I think BMW knows what the scaled cost should be better than Axion. Can Axion and a partner or partners make a business case that works? Another million dollar unknown puzzle piece.
    20 Mar, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Yes. i see it the same way. No deal will occur with the OEM without a deal with another supplier.

     

    I am really very curious to know why the supplier hasn't signed on the dotted line.

     

    Negotiations shouldn't take this long. It's not like there is testing or time-dependent things that have to happen. We know they can make PbC batteries, we know the batteries work. The only thing I can think of is that TG is waiting by the phone, convinced that at some point these guys are going to take his offer.

     

    Well, I, the company, the market, the universe, is out of patience. Whatever we need to do to make this happen, let's drop everything else, and make it happen. Free massages at a sketchy karaoke bar? A lifetime supply of Scotch whiskey? Come on. Tell me what I can do for you and sign the %^&*& contract!
    20 Mar, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi PY,
    You may as well sit in an easy chair and kick off your shoes. This is a waiting game and requires a lot of patience. Throw the stock in with the socks. These concentrators are a double edged sword, great for DD and info of what is going on in the energy sector, but it can also cause frustration b/c of the intense scrutiny of the company through a microscope.

     

    Yeah, timing is everything and also the hardest thing to figure out. I and a lot of others here were waaaaay early to this party.
    20 Mar, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I believe that your understanding of the power output capability of the PbC battery is incorrect even with regard to its short demand 'cold cranking' performance. Even when the PbC battery is at full charge the power density and specific power of the PbC battery is probably lower than that of a VLRA of similar case size and plate configuration, and given its linear decline in output voltage vs. state of charge, the power output falls more rapidly then does that of most other battery types. Axion stopped making a claim of high power several years ago. I know that it seems counter intuitive that the 'half capacitor' PbC battery could be better at accepting energy then a VRLA but not better then the VRLA at returning that energy, but that may well be the case.

     

    John, If you have published data that supports your understanding of high power, could you share that with the rest of us?

     

    As you have learned at ePower, the PbC battery has some vastly superior performance characteristics when compared to VRLA batteries but neither energy density nor high power density is among those PbC battery advantages.

     

    As I said earlier, TG should allow the engineers to publish the performance characteristics of the PbC battery because it seems to me that we investors have the right to know what they are.
    22 Mar, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I don't think I've ever suggested that the PbC has more power than a VRLA battery. Hell, lead acid batteries have some of the best power and temperature profiles on the planet and it's hard to do any better.

     

    Since the PbC is targeted at PSOC applications and will rarely be kept at a 100% SOC, it will never have the cold cranking amperage of an old fashioned flooded battery that's kept fully charged. Where the PbC excels is accepting heavy charging currents in applications like ePower's tractor that melted the terminals of high quality VRLA batteries that could't support the system for more than a couple hours before spending 12 hours on a battery charger.

     

    The performance characteristics published by other battery companies are basically gee-whiz numbers to anybody but the engineers who are trying to determine whether a particular battery meets the requirements of a particular application. For real decision makers gee-whiz numbers are absolutely meaningless because they require far more data and exhaustive testing.

     

    I'd like to see more published data on the PbC, but that's just because I'm a bit of a techno-voyeur and would like to satisfy my own curiosity. Since I know that purchase decisions will be made by professionals who are far more knowledgeable and unlikely to ask for my opinion, I don't see it as a major issue.
    22 Mar, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John, Here is what you said "The big advantage of the PbC is the ability to behave like a supercapacitor and deliver a big surge of power..." but now you seem to be saying otherwise.

     

    With regard to Axion's need to divulge the PbC battery performance characteristics, I was speaking about the needs of the prospective investor in AXPW.

     

    Even if the investor is not a techie themselves, the financially successful ones normally choose to rely on the opinion of a third party techie expert regarding the true advantages and disadvantages of what they are potentially investing in and that vetting by a third party is impossible to do without being given the performance characterization data.

     

    Axion has been quick to publish very complex charge/discharge cycling data where this battery has clear performance advantages but when it comes to the basic characterization that is common to the battery industry they are mute and that smacks of trying to hide some of the characteristics that might be disadvantageous in certain applications.

     

    In my experience I have found that when people succumbs to hiding, in any way, from the realities of their circumstance, it usually leads to trouble and Axion has certainly seen more than its share of trouble.

     

    Perhaps you have seen a complete vetting of the basic PbC battery performance characteristics by some third party battery expert, and if so could you possibly share that with us?
    22 Mar, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Does anybody else find it odd that every one of the 19 comments by someone going by the moniker "PbC Believer" is critical and challenging either of John Petersen or Axion, or both?
    22 Mar, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    PbC Believer> Third party technology experts have no problem understanding the information Axion makes available to the public. The only people who complain are those who want to make simplistic comparisons based on energy density, power density or $ per kWh, the most meaningless metrics on the planet.

     

    I understand that you want Axion to bare its heart and soul for all to see and misinterpret.

     

    Please show me where other manufacturers of advanced lead-acid batteries have published the kind of detailed information you think Axion should divulge for the sole purpose of making investors feel warm and fuzzy.

     

    Where are the published performance characteristics of AGM batteries with carbon additives?

     

    Where are the published performance characteristics of the Ultrabattery?

     

    For that matter, where are the published performance characteristics for GE's duration battery?

     

    Lithium-ion battery manufacturers regularly publish meaningless performance specifications to satisfy the clamoring gullible masses who don't have the foggiest idea what the numbers mean.

     

    Axion's competitors are real companies that don't provide that kind of information and it would be foolish for Axion to behave otherwise.
    22 Mar, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John,
    You are wrong on all counts but you have a right to your opinion so we will leave it at that..
    22 Mar, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    You can't simply allege that I'm wrong and call it a day. You have to show interested readers where I'm wrong.

     

    Where are the published performance characteristics of AGM batteries with carbon additives?

     

    Where are the published performance characteristics of the Ultrabattery?

     

    Where are the published performance characteristics for GE's duration battery?

     

    Links talk BS walks.
    22 Mar, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    PbC Believer wrote:
    "John,
    I believe that your understanding of the power output capability of the PbC battery is incorrect even with regard to its short demand 'cold cranking' performance. "

     

    Since when has this been an issue? Axion has stated over and over that for SS applications they recommend using a small LA battery to crank the engine and rely on the PbC for everything else. The only place where it would be an issue would be in a 48V system, and then, if you've got 3 or 4 PbCs in the trunk it won't matter either.
    22 Mar, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    @PbC-Believer: First, please, puh-leeeze tell us what specifically is it that you believe in?? Because, based on your comments, it seems to me that you don't know.

     

    re': "I know that it seems counter intuitive..." To have intuition about such things would suggest a fairly decent understanding of electrochemistry, physics, etc. It seems to me that isn't the case at all, so I can't imagine how you came to the conclusion that you know anything that then seems counter-intuitive.

     

    Just for the pure pleasure of piling on, there are many reversible reactions that have different rate constants in different directions. That's the norm, actually. And as VRLA and a PbC are quite different, it comes as no surprise that they have the same rate of discharging but different rates of charging. Nothing counter-intuitive at all. In fact, it was so intuitive to me that the PbC would (and does) have an advantage in this regard (i.e., its DCA) over the VRLA, that I've bet quite a bit of my hard-earned money on the value of that now-proven fact as well as their other advantages over a POS VRLA.

     

    The idea that you think it counter-intuitive is, ISTM, evidence of ignorance you should consider not remaining ignorant of, so this is me being helpful. Or, to summon up an old adage and good advice: Better you should keep your mouth shut and keep them wondering...

     

    It's all "very complex" to you, isn't it?
    22 Mar, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Don't recall having seen this one before, but I admit I can't keep up with you guys...

     

    "Already two large lead acid battery makers are looking to implement Axion’s technology into their manufacturing in response to demand from end-user customers that want more than one source of lead carbon batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/1ovNUKc
    20 Mar, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    At the stockholders meeting Tom said one of the manufacturers was acting at the behest of a customer that wanted to avoid a sole source issue and the other was acting on its own initiative. It's not clear to me whether something has changed or the reporter simply got it wrong. I would view the execution of such an agreement as the clearest possible sign that automotive is a done deal because Axion may be wiling to develop a battery at its own risk but another manufacturer would typically want rock solid assurances from an OEM customer before accepting that kind of risk.
    20 Mar, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    John - I don't read that statement as saying anything other than has already been stated with the two potential lead acid companies. Except that maybe there is more than one OEM asking ... Do you?

     

    On another note, it appears that at least TG was able to generically discuss South America and the Caribbean. Given the dismal last year for shareholders and that TG's prior CC's have not been stellar performances, I would encourage him to change his format to a method that provides more generic information on all the "initiatives." I would start by beginning the CC on time and answering every last question or at least giving it consideration.
    20 Mar, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    "Replacing all the lead in a lead acid battery’s negative plate results in an ultracapacitor, like the technology developed by Axion Power. Replacing half the lead with carbon, like the approach by Ecoult, Penn State Manufacturing and Furukawa results in a hybrid battery-supercapacitor device."

     

    How about replacing 3/4ths of the lead? 9/10ths? Suggests IP questions to me.
    20 Mar, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> Axion has previously disclosed that it was taken to one of the manufacturers by a customer (presumably BMW) who said "try and find a way to do a deal." While Tom said the other manufacturer was acting on its own initiative, at least part of me wonders whether the approach might have arisen from an OEM inquiry that wasn't discussed with Axion.

     

    Developing the PbC has been a relatively low budget affair with annual costs in the $8 million range. Implementing the PbC technology in an existing battery plant could cost up to $50 million for new electrode fabrication facilities that would the sole-source problem. If I owned a battery plant and was considering that level of investment, I'd want solid assurances from my customer before I spent much time or money chasing a deal with Axion.

     

    I share your irritation with conference calls that start late. At the same time I understand that conference call service providers have schedules and stick to them so a timely end doesn't bother me as much.

     

    Edmund> While I do my best to avoid discussing IP conflicts because it's such a complex arena, Ed Buiel had the following to say in 2008:

     

    "We definitely think this technology is an excellent choice for hybrid-electric vehicles," says Buiel. "There's a lot of intellectual property in this area, and most of it is owned by Axion. Obviously, if we feel somebody violates our patent, we will defend that vigorously."

     

    http://bit.ly/1nG83Ar
    20 Mar, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: I don't know if you were around when TG called all of us that had questions but got cut off by the time limit.

     

    A one-time affair and not done since.

     

    I wonder why what was important to him then became less important.

     

    At the time, that action impressed all of us. Subsequently, other less positive things have been impressing us.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Edmund (continued)> It is important to remember that East Penn did not sub-license the Ultrabattery until September 2008, so while Ed was willing to do some saber rattling when Furukawa was the only licensee, it's tougher to pick a fight with a long term friend. All things considered, I suspect that Axion and East Penn will amicably resolve any patent disputes that might arise.
    20 Mar, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund: Do patent lawyers ever work on "commission"? It doesn't matter what the form factor is, the language in Axion Power's original patent covers the use of any carbon material in the negative electrode. Every single "lead carbon" battery out there is a potential patent infringement. Never mind that they don't work.
    20 Mar, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Lead-acid battery researchers have been working with carbon and other NAM additives for a long time and any IP associated with the concept moved into the public domain years ago.

     

    When you get into true hybrid devices that are part battery part supercapacitor, Axion's IP estate is daunting.
    20 Mar, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    EM,
    From your article:
    "Recently Axion supplied 600 batteries with its Powercube system to Bysolar, for a commercial application, for a food industry business that lost its electricity supply when Hurricane Sandy struck and wants to be prepared should a similar event cut off power in future."

     

    That's more information about the buyer than we've seen before.
    20 Mar, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Lab, yes it is, and we were all wondering w/ Sandy and the ice storms in the NE awhile back if it would produce some PC sales eventually. IIRC, we were even thinking it might produce some Hub sales, back when that was on the front burner.

     

    So the answer so far is one 'weather disasters' sale.
    20 Mar, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but the "food industry" reference isn't helpful for me to go find it. I'm an Jerseyan, btw. I wonder if we can reasonably hope that there will be a follow-up report from BySolar.
    22 Mar, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    From that energyjournal article, "... ‘Pennsylvania is going to play a key role in the next revolution of sorts in lead acid battery technology,’ believes Aquion CEO Tom Granville".

     

    What's the old saw about "spell my name right"? Maybe we should include get my company name right too.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Aquion to Begin Commercial Battery Shipments This Year, CEO Says

     

    "“We’re looking to start scaling the business,” Chief Executive Officer Tom Granville said today in a telephone interview. “We’re going to be shipping megawatt-hours per quarter this year and tens of megawatt-hours next year. It won't be 6 months before you see significant sales, I can assure you of that.”" :-O

     

    http://bloom.bg/1nGejbh
    20 Mar, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (282) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I noticed that, too. Amazing how many ways there are to spell AXION!!!
    20 Mar, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Shame on you, ii. You had me going for maybe 3 seconds there...

     

    I view TG promises like options trades, the older they get the more likely they will expire worthless. The current "not 6 months" version is the 600 pound gorilla sitting in the corner for this upcoming CC.
    20 Mar, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    TB, The other thing I sense w/ TG, but it's really just a feeling I have, is that he is not aggressive in promoting the few positive events when he has them. It's like the Bysolar sale. Never brought up until just before the cc. And not much information shared to put the best possible spin on it. I have to wonder how aggressive he is with his partners to share as much information as he can to take care of the stake holders? He really is at the opposite end of the spectrum from Elon in this function.
    20 Mar, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    triple,

     

    I plan to ask TG during this coming CC for an update on his response he gave to my questioning on the last CC regarding "won't be six months". By the time the conference call arrives there will be approximately 6 weeks left in his 6 months prediction.

     

    I continue to hope that TG will come through with his significant order by then so I will be able to congratulate him instead of criticizing him!
    20 Mar, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    ii, not funny.
    20 Mar, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    NGS, Sorry if I offended you or anyone else.
    20 Mar, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Do you suppose that TG was actually saying that there wouldn't be significant sales within 6 months?
    20 Mar, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    AiB: LoL! Supposedly, per the article, he was saying significant sales for Aquion! :-P

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Albert, I think TG saw something or some things as possible in that time frame. However, like in the past, I fret he will be less than fair in following up w/ proper status when things do not materialize. One of my biggest issues with Mr. Granville.

     

    I do not think he is a liar. I think he is a bad communicator and poor at properly telling Axion's story. Two very important tasks for a publicly traded company.
    20 Mar, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Alphameister wrote (quite aptly) a couple days ago: "It is beyond dispute that Granville has misled us repeatedly."
    20 Mar, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    "I fret he will be less than fair in following up w/ proper status when things do not materialize. One of my biggest issues with Mr. Granville.

     

    I do not think he is a liar. I think he is a bad communicator and poor at properly telling Axion's story. Two very important tasks for a publicly traded company."

     

    ii -Less than forthcoming, no, what would give you that idea?

     

    I posted earlier, but deleted it - IMO, in the face of a regular need to seek funding, TG's inability to communicate and refusal to assign a key employee to do same, borders on incompetence for a publicly traded company.

     

    My opinion would probably be much different if Axion was privately held.
    20 Mar, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    It's not uncommon for managers to believe that they should focus on running the business, not managing the stock price. I disagree of course, but that is because I spent time investing and trading. Someone of a different background might subscribe to Modern Portfolio Theory and "The Efficient Market Theory", and think the stock will do what it does.

     

    Even someone like David Einhorn had to badger the CEO of a company he invested in because of this. The CEO said the stock price doesn't matter, to which Einhorn replied: "except when you are selling stock."
    20 Mar, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    If I am not mistaken, Axion has had to sell stock every year since I had the good or mis fortune to discover it (the proper descriptor remains to be seen). Thus, I would say this is an issue of primary concern.

     

    With that said, it appears the operations have been very well run for a long time.
    20 Mar, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Right, and the problem is that since operations are run well, TG thinks the stock would reflect that and not realize how much promotion is needed. The other half of the story isn't TG's fault: when you have a venture ecosystem like Silicon Valley has, you have many large financial players incentivized to up your valuation. You have Series A, B, C, D..... fund raises, all of which gladly pay higher valuations in what is essentially a ponzi scheme to dump on the public on IPO. The fact is, Axion doesn't have any large institutions to promote their stock! That's really out of TG's hands until the customers roll in, unfortunately. On the other hand, that is why Axionistas can get in on the cheap. Over here in SV, you get 20 million valuations just because a founder went to Stanford.
    20 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, We are in agreement that TG is doing damage to Axion to some extent due to his performance in this area.
    20 Mar, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Many of us agree that Axion Power is doing quite well IN SPITE of a weak CEO.

     

    Why do I say he is weak? Because he has the demeanor of a high-school physics teacher. Negotiations begin when your touched-by-the-grace- of god spokesman-in-chief dazzles you with warm fuzzy feelings of being in the presence of Greatness.

     

    I am not so concerned with the shareholders being kept in the dark. I am much more concerned that Axion has it's lunch money taken from it by bullies while TG apparently sheepishly looks on (Exide, ALABC, PIPE), or even worse, refuses to engage for fear of getting fleeced again.
    20 Mar, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Two questions (complaints rather) need to be front-and-center at the next CC.

     

    Forget about sales. I want a public contract signed with a third-party manufacturer. What's the hold-up? This is the number one thing the company can do to shore up customer confidence.

     

    Forget about sales. Why is nobody besides us telling Axion's story? Where is the marketing effort? Like others have said, the company needs to raise financing. We all know this. The stock price is ABSOLUTELY important to the company right now and there just is a big stinking SILENCE coming from the company. Pay 20 kids 20 dollars each to do a flash mob and post a video. DO SOMETHING!!
    20 Mar, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Managers should focus on the business not the stock price in the case of liquid, well followed stocks. With illiquid and thinly traded stocks though management should put much effort into getting the stock price up if there will likely be a need for selling more equity.

     

    If there's no need to sell new equity and thus no dilution then I don't care whether management pays heed to the stock price. With a farmer you expect him to plant and cultivate wisely, and sell the harvest and manage expenses wisely, but you don't expect him to try to get the market value of the farm up. It's not his job and largely out of his control.
    20 Mar, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    ii & Stefan, in most of the attached references, it appears that TG is the speaker or point of ref. for the article or video, & we have criticized TG re how "poor at properly telling Axion's story" he is, or doesn't add enough color to opportunities protected by NDA's, or can't get prospects to sign on the dotted line. Meanwhile, I've seen little to no recent references to VD (For newbees, that's Vani Dantam, Senior Vice-president, Business Development, Marketing & Sales for AXPW, not the disease).

     

    While each exec must wear many hats in a small company, VD should be establishing the plan, communications, including pushing the boundaries of those with NDA’s & processes for all areas of his responsibility. If his CEO doesn’t have the charisma of an Elon Musk, VD should be helping to stage Public Relation efforts &/or perhaps at times being the AXPW mouthpiece. So while the buck stops with TG, I’d be really interested in what business prospects VD has brought ‘new’ to the table since he started with AXPW in Jan. 2012. Most companies we’ve been discussing on this blog predate VD’s tenure.

     

    AXPW has a world class product. Going forward, I believe axionista’s & potential shareholders expect more than a bounce in TG’s step, or a vague references to potential customers & associated revenue.
    20 Mar, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Dan, I can't argue your points. I see Vani as more of a technical sales type individual who developed his skill set in large scale manufacturing. A person who understands the needs of industry like large scale automotive and can speak the language. He is not the entrepreneurial type that would open markets like residential behind the meter storage IMO.

     

    As such I think any advancements he's making, where his skill set applies most, is generally going to be cloaked in NDA's. One area I think he has probably been instrumental in is the support ePower is now getting from Cummins. I think his prior work with them allowed him to assess ePower and bridge the "they are only another small garage tinkerer" gap and get ePower the support they need to advance their program in a far faster and more fruitful manner. Past positive relationships can be worth their weight in gold.

     

    I do think we saw Vani trying to move in additional directions with some of his conference attendance. I do not however think he has as much clout in these areas because many are initiatives driven in many cases by government, which is controlled by an entirely different circle of contacts. I don't think Vani has the contacts or the skill set to pry open a place for Axion in that circle.
    20 Mar, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Dan,

     

    I also agree with your points. As I recall, VD was the Axion speaker at the ESA 2012 conference, where he told the audience that NS would be building a fleet of 50 or 75 electric locomotives (can't remember the exact number) ... Oops, here we are two years later with no locomotives and I don't recall VD giving presenting at many more conferences other than the SAE conference. However, I feel like Axion became much more sensitive with information. Cause and effect? who knows ...
    20 Mar, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Vani did present at the 2 NYC conferences on power cube type apps. Also presented at at least one conference in the trucking sector and IIRC more than that in the sector. So he has been active but certainly not in rail since the incident you mentioned.
    21 Mar, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    ii - very true.
    21 Mar, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    ii & Stefan, thanks for your response. All this time I thought that VD was the lone ranger with regards to the Marketing & Sales side of AXPW. I just discovered I didn’t dig deep enough. I located two helpers, besides Jack Shindle, the VP Engineer Subject Matter Expert (SME):

     

    - Richard Rosey – Business Development Manager since Feb. 2009 http://linkd.in/15dyC75 &

     

    - Doug Speece - Sales & Marketing since 2008
    http://linkd.in/1jfycje

     

    With Richard Rosey's experience with Solar, he should be the lead candidate for the developing the storage market, where there is some near term sales hope. There may be other SME's, officers or clerical in Vani’s department. If so, it does not appear they are on linkedin, or have been mentioned in any AXPW sales or PR material that I’ve read. As a result, of the newfound AXPW Marketing depth, I afraid I will have even less patience if AXPW misses TG's not in 6 months deadline.

     

    While doing my linkedin research, I checked out some of the Aquion employees. I found that that Aquion may have more commonality with AXPW than ii's reference to the 'not in 6 months comment.' Stephan, was that you or Patrick that did the AXPW patent research? I would love to know what patents Aquion holds, re their Aqueous Hybrid Ion (AHI™) technology, to validate or refute what I found.

     

    http://bit.ly/sWgFSo

     

    "Aquion Energy's patented AHI batteries provide safe, reliable, sustainable and cost-effective energy storage for a diverse range of applications."
    21 Mar, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Dan, May have been before your time but I'd done the Linkedin search a couple times and posted concerning the fact that Axion had more depth in their marketing efforts than just Vani. I guess it shows how some level of repetition here in the concentrators can be effective for at least 2 reasons. I can't think of one! :(
    21 Mar, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    ii: Your comments on Vani here are one of the best I have seen on this sort of topic. Right on.
    21 Mar, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Dan -

     

    It's been awhile since I did patent research on Axion. I think most of that occurred before I started posting on John's articles - where the pre-Concentrator posters posted ... besides yahoo.
    21 Mar, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Since Ed (what a fine name) Buiel just got a mention, what's he up to in Canada? I mean, there's no coconuts in Canada. Or pistachios.

     

    Northern Graphite is one of my minor miner investments. I had one of those small world feelings when he showed up late last year.

     

    Released yesterday: http://mwne.ws/1fJAQKp
    20 Mar, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    HTL -

     

    I was around at the time and it gave me a good impression of management at the time. As I recall, the botched CC was in November of 2011, and a couple weeks later the relationship with Viridity and connection to the PJM was disclosed. Unfortunately, that didn't really move the needle as the end of year tax selling took its toll before the 2012 secondary.
    20 Mar, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The price decline in Q4-12 had nothing to do with tax loss selling. Total volume for the quarter was 18 million shares, or 9 million on the sell side. During the quarter Special Situations solar 3.2 million shares according to its 13-HR reports and Quercus sold another 775,200 according to its Form 4s. Between the two big uglies you've just accounted for over half the sell side volume in the quarter.

     

    The suggestion that a press release or two should, or for that matter could, offset consistent sustained selling pressure from owners of huge blocks is preposterous.

     

    If somebody smacks a kid in the mouth with a hammer it will break his teeth. If an orthodontist exerts just a little sustained pressure over nine to eighteen months, snuggle puss ends up with a lovely smile. Stocks don't behave any differently.
    20 Mar, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reminder John. There have been so many big uglies that I tend to forget about which ones we are talking about. IMO, it was a combination of both in anticipation of the secondary that led to the decline as I had been contemplating selling out and buying back in January. I can't believe I was the only one with that thought.
    20 Mar, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    It's clear that Special Sits and Quercus were not the only sellers in Q4-11, but anytime you have a couple bruisers fighting for first position at the pay window and pushing everyone else away, ugly things happen.
    20 Mar, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Here are the stats on ZBB's secondary.
    For proper comparison, they raised at $2.25, which adjusted for the reverse split is .45.

     

    http://mwne.ws/1nGzA4N
    20 Mar, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    The old adage that "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", is thankfully only applicable to people who trade options or on margin, but I would revise that and say, "markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay sane".
    20 Mar, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    PY "... longer than I can stay sane"

     

    I suspect a causal relationship exists! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Johnson Controls collaborates with Europe's largest application-oriented research organization to develop components to advance battery technology

     

    "The scope of the work will initially focus on 48-Volt Micro Hybrid battery technology, which is designed to deliver strong fuel and emissions efficiency, and load management at a lower price than hybrid and electric vehicle technology."

     

    http://bit.ly/1g53pGW
    20 Mar, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    You should have highlighted the fact that they are talking about making cooling systems for Li-ion 48V systems. Showing once again that, as far as JCI is concerned, there isn't a lead acid battery that can do the job, and thus the reason JCI is promoting their two battery system with a Li-ion battery.
    20 Mar, 03:26 PM Reply Like