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  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to todays trading!
    2 Apr, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (157) | Send Message
     
    DVA
    2 Apr, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Did the CFO ever say why he is leaving Axion? I saw where TG say that information would be disclosed but I did not see any comments on it later in the call.
    2 Apr, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    I think Mr. Graham was prepared to respond to questions but nobody asked. Since Granville doesn't use terms like "unbelievable opportunity" lightly, I'd be willing to bet terms were too good to resist; something on the order of a salary double plus bonuses.
    2 Apr, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    That was my read too, JP.

     

    Suspect they were surprised they didn't get a question about it.

     

    Who knows, maybe the spouse/SO/children (assuming there are some) had some input too ... anyone know where they moved to?

     

    New Castle may not be everyone's preferred cup of tea ...
    2 Apr, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    As tight as Norfolk Southern is on the info about NS-999, I was surprised that TG made a public statement about the train and charging stations.

     

    It has to be a positive sign if NS is no longer clamping down on any mention of it and the timing of the project. I expect news of the NS-999 to "push" the stock price.
    2 Apr, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    So was it ever settled if it was 72-volt chargers or (as I thought when I heard it in the conference call) volt-chargers 72 in number?
    2 Apr, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Given the detailed analysis we got from User 393748, I think it was 72-volt chargers rather than 72 chargers of indeterminate voltage. Maybe we'll see clarification in the form of a press release when the order ships.
    2 Apr, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Can someone clarify what the "chargers" consist of and are they intended to be used in the normal operation of the train or just to restore the batteries after some down time?
    2 Apr, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    If NS really wants to up it's Green Cred, maybe it could buy a BySolar system and PC to power the charger and earn some FR cash on the side. How cool would that be to have a completely solar powered rail yard that also helps stabilize the grid.
    2 Apr, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    PY, In the call it was pretty clear that the chargers are to top off the batteries before they take the train out on the tracks.
    That does not rule out other usages, however.
    2 Apr, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Seems odd that they would build the train and not already have a way to charge it. I'm guessing these are additional chargers to be placed in the rail yard where it will be doing its testing and work.
    2 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    I don't find this odd. I'm sure the chargers were to be ordered within a set time prior to the launch of the 999.
    Since the launch was delayed, so was the charger order.

     

    At least that is what it seems like to me.
    2 Apr, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    ngs,
    If I recall a video I saw on battery charging, when batteries are charged for the first time, they are put on a system that has a very defined process of how the charge is brought up in a battery during partial SOC. Since the batteries in the NS-999 are probably close to completely discharged, I would assume they need to go through this process again. Thus the need for the chargers. As I recall, Altoona already has a charging bay for the train to be hooked up to when it's not in service, but the batteries, in that case, would never have been allowed to get to such a low SOC.
    2 Apr, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    My morning news search came up with this:
    http://bit.ly/1h2ivi6

     

    Too funny. Perhaps peeing on electric fences is not all that bad. If it gets too painful, just take some opium.
    2 Apr, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Crazy stuff, me thinks Mr. Ritter could have used some lithium.
    2 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Not that it's a major deal, but I think one thing we can "read between the lines" from the Conf Call is that we won't be getting a bunch of NYC PowerCube sales. I derive this from TG's comments contrasting Lithium and PbC pros and cons and mentioning "real estate" (really just the size) of the batteries being a Lithium advantage.

     

    As you may recall, in a previous call, TG mentioned going on sales calls in what I took to be NYC ... and I presume with Vani. Wouldn't surprise me if at one point TG thought that was a real possibility, and dare I say even led to one or two "skips in his step" ... until he got more info. Perhaps similar to the SEPTA situation (or at least one of the reasons he cited for not winning that deal, though of course it may not have been the only reason.) Not blaming TG ... there's been a lot of understandable "live and learn" on this road for him and us. Now if he had been an extraordinary/visionary or much more scientific CEO he might have known sooner or immediately, but how many of those are there?

     

    Would have been an exciting opportunity to tap into NYC "big building" money, but I don't think it will happen w.r.t. "big building" real estate where "space is money," and is so every month the rent checks arrive. Out "in space" next to Renewable generation ... now that's a different story.

     

    On the other hand, I think there will be other significant ways to tap into "NYC money" ... just more the usual things you think of coming from "financial institutions," though maybe as likely coming from "California money" if we can get some marketing out there and aren't "wed" to dealing with the PJM "devil we know."
    2 Apr, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    I wonder what the addition of a large lithium-ion battery to a building in NYC costs in additional fire insurance premiums.

     

    I think TG was trying to answer the question fairly. There are various reasons one may wish to buy Li-ion. It is certainly more expensive, less green, and not very good in terms of charge acceptance, but packs a lot of energy into a small space, like a bomb, which it kinda is.
    2 Apr, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Buildings are a tough market because they're all about energy; storing the biggest number of kilowatt hours in the smallest possible space. The principal economic benefits are demand charge management and TOU energy charge management. The high dollar applications are frequency regulation and short duration renewables integration.
    2 Apr, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    No it kinda isn't.

     

    I think we have a little too much "group think" or "group snark" (which I have occasionally indulged in) in this area. There are problems with certain Lithium "forms," but certainly not all of them. You pay the battery cost and in "souped up" and a costlier BMS, but it still comes down to an economic calculation, and we don't always win. And we don't have to always win ... that's okay. To adapt the "Al Davis (Raiders) line" ... Just niche baby!

     

    http://bit.ly/1gnNvD0

     

    We haven't all banned laptops from our houses and offices for fear of lithium ...

     

    As you stated, TG was pretty fair in his "off the cuff" and condensed assessment. I like that in my CEO.

     

    Note also that these batteries aren't hurtling through space at 80 miles an hour either ... or subject to other "under the influence" batteries hurtling at them :-)
    2 Apr, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    I seem to remember someone years ago pointing out that lithium batteries could be competition for the PbC in various markets.....
    2 Apr, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Given Lithium-ion's ability to hold a lot of energy but its problem of getting hotter than Cindy Margolis when it is used to, uhm, recycle that power, I think PbC's and L'ions can put aside their differences and work together.
    2 Apr, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    Properly sized lithium packs show little self heating during use, some varieties less than others of course.
    3 Apr, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, better to say, properly engineered vs "properly sized". The size is not relevant to the point as I know you know.
    3 Apr, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    Proper pack sizing is part of the engineering as far as I'm concerned. Under sizing the pack for the required demands is not proper engineering.
    4 Apr, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, Correct. And as we know, it's far more complex than just battery size. It's how you manage almost everything as a consumer in your vehicle purchase.

     

    The hardest part is having a customer that is buying a tool for an expected job to choose wisely. I suspect far too many are buying their vehicle the same way, as an example, Americans have bought "Yank Tanks" and bitched about MPG. Doesn't fully explain the gap but it's the biggest part.
    4 Apr, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7604) | Send Message
     
    In this case I was specifically referring to stationary storage use, referring to wtblanchards post above regarding lithium's advantage over PbC. Storage packs are likely to see small C rates in relation to their capacity, so any self heating issues during discharge referenced by ARGE simply will not exist.
    In automotive use the only heat related issues we've seen are in LEAF packs in some locations consistently charging at 100F+ temperatures. The LEAF of course has no active temperature management for their packs, and uses one of the less durable lithium chemistries. Once again, not the self heating during discharge that ARGE suggested.
    5 Apr, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    China's New Wager: Pulling Energy From the Ocean

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1h2noYn
    2 Apr, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Something a bit closer to home.

     

    http://cbsn.ws/1myPPwl
    2 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    " It hasn't always been easy. The blades from one of the rotors put into the river in 2006 broke on its first day and the currents chewed up other early models to the degree that they had to be taken out of commission. "

     

    The greatest part of the story is to see how long it has taken to develop an underwater turbine that works. About the same length of time to build a lead acid carbon hybrid battery capacitor.
    2 Apr, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Just got caught up on the call and all the comments. Have a couple days off after a tough month. I wanted to comment that nothing in the cc was unexpected. But the call did put a spring in my step.

     

    We heard positively about the rail program. I'm sure it was disappointing to all who thought the secret loco was out testing. But we did find out that NS allowed Axion to tell us why it wasn't out. And that it will roll out. This gives me a little bounce. Sometimes we forget the basics. Like how important it is for the rail yards to quit polluting when they are located in metropolitan areas. Big market out there for yard slugs.

     

    We heard positively about the PowerCube. With the new FERC rules on pricing Axion has a product that fits a customers needs and provides some payback. There are a lot of renewable energy providers out there. They all need storage to work effectively.

     

    We heard that are most awaited "substantial order" is coming in the next 44 days. I'm betting on an island nation PowerCube order. Others might be reading between the lines differently, but that's my sense of it.

     

    On the whole all we have been told is coming to fruition. Not in the order or way we thought. But it is coming. Cubes, trains, and trucks. All giant markets. All with big growing pains when one takes off. A little bit of each market makes me very "bouncy bouncy".
    But I have been here for a long time and felt this way before.
    2 Apr, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Unusual 4 pre-mkt trades all sells, 3 @ $0.17 one $0.1751. Tody30K shares.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Add 1 more 5K @ $0.17
    2 Apr, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Nice open. Lot of activity. Almost looks like a liquid stock.
    2 Apr, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully we blast through 0.20 today or very shortly.

     

    HTL-> Any idea where the next resistance level is?

     

    thanks
    2 Apr, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: haven't checked recently. But based on recent action, $0.18 is looking pretty stout.

     

    When I get caught up (again!), I'll look around, but the $0.30/$0.32 area is stuck in my memory for some reason. There's got to be some lower than that though - spent to much time going sideways, up, down below those prices to not have some hanging around.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I agree HTL, she's bouncing hard off of .18.
    2 Apr, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: A cursory glance suggested $0.20-$0.21 and then $0.23. The first two were a "double pipe bottom" on 4/29-4/30/13 and the other was a double touch of "all time lows" to that point on 4/19/13 and 5/8/13.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    I believe it was Maya who posted this link many moons ago. Thanks Maya, and apologies to anyone to whom I might not have given credit, should the linkster not have been Maya.

     

    technical analysis cheat sheet for AXPW.

     

    http://bit.ly/zPTNxJ
    2 Apr, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Metro: I have seen that Bar Chart info before, but can't recall if I linked it or someone else did.

     

    ####

     

    At 12:44 I had a partial order fill at $0.172. AXPW went up from there and then dropped back to $0.172 at 1:08 PM, and my remaining shares did not get filled, even though more volume traded at that time than what I was bidding for.

     

    Seems the MM is deliberately trying to get me to chase.

     

    Have others experienced this partial fill, and then see more shares trade at the same price of your bid, but you get bypassed?
    2 Apr, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Maya, recently I've seen several examples per day of trades lower than the bid. Usually they occur not long after the same number of shares traded at the ask. So I'm guessing it may have to do with what I'd call double-count completion.

     

    Edit: we just had one at 14:23:41: 15k shares at 17.3 cents when the bid was 17.5x.

     

    But I'm no trade expert. Just watch some of this stuff because I have the time to fill.
    2 Apr, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I have seen the MM try to bait me any number of times, on AXPW and others, Maya. Common.
    2 Apr, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    I saw that .172 USD trade under the bid as well. Plus I've also noted a couple similar moves the last few days. I had one of those nice mm moves occur to me today where they chain you to the wall with a 1 share execution. Take the commission and use you later at their discretion. You're not going anywhere!
    2 Apr, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Yep, trip and Mr I. My last buy a few days back was also a partial fill. I'm just going to glub around the river bottom for the rest of the day.
    2 Apr, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    MrI: We had one yesterday that could be a puzzle at 9:30:11 for 42.5K at $15.10. But it was a "seq" trade, which means it didn't really happen then, we don't know when it really happened because the timestamp is not time of trade, but time of reporting of a trade that was late (>= 10 secs) in reporting the trade.

     

    The per FINRA response last time I saw this.

     

    So with this sort of leeway ensconced in the rules to the benefit of the slackers (I mean, they could at least report the time of the trade so we could grok out wohat we might), we shouldn't be surprised when various trades occur ... intra-broker, inter-broker, on the NMS ... that just go right by us.

     

    No orange jumpsuit worries either - it's all legal.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    I generally use aon orders in order to avoid partial fills. Makes the order less likely to fill naturally but allows me to place an order and walk away from the screen without worry.
    2 Apr, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I was hoping you saw those trades. I don't recall this many of them until very recently. Not sure what that means, if anything. Hey, I'm still happy we avoided the doomsday scenario.
    2 Apr, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    <<<Have others experienced this partial fill, and then see more shares trade at the same price of your bid, but you get bypassed?>>>

     

    @Maya: Yes... I believe it's part of the Algo.
    2 Apr, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    Maya, why buying here when you had all the time to accumulate at 10 cents? Little strange to me because I think you been here for years. Correct?
    2 Apr, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • hschindler
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    I have experienced this numerous times. The PipERs might be gone or leaving, but up to this point it hasn't changed the shady behavior of the MM's. Partial fills followed by bidding up .001 of a cent and getting bypassed. Hopefully in the long run the .003 cents won't matter.
    3 Apr, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Interesting high level blog from Lantham & Watkins, LLP on procurement targets:

     

    http://bit.ly/1h2TROh

     

    I thought TG did a good job on his overview discussion of the energy storage landscape. He is clearly becoming well versed in this topic.
    2 Apr, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Another interesting blog.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ksIvRy

     

    IMO, one of TG's most important statements was the FERC authorization for utilities to begin adding the cost of storage to the rate base and having customers ultimately be charged for the capex cost of storage.

     

    IIRC, this FERC decision came down last summer and is only beginning to filter through the system. ZBB has also commented on how big a development this will be for them.

     

    Not sure how long that decision will take for utilities to actually begin implementing purchasing decisions based on it, but the shift appears to be starting now with deadlines for RFQs and RFPs coming due over the next six months to a year.

     

    Unfortunately, the question for us is how many haircuts do we need to take until the shift begins to show up with press releases from Axion??
    2 Apr, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Big catalyst for orders, for sure. Util's getting off the fence now.

     

    Thx Stefan.
    2 Apr, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    Holy cow -

     

    AES focuses on grid-scale energy storage technologies, with around 1000MW in development to be added to its existing capacity.

     

    standardization key -

     

    http://bit.ly/1ihSIyR
    2 Apr, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (336) | Send Message
     
    Would appreciate someone letting me know how to aquire a copy of yesterdays CC transcript

     

    Thank you
    2 Apr, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    dlmca: http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Apr, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: be aware I *think* transcription is done off-shore, based on past results, and you might want to simultaneously listen to the recording, linked in the header, to make sure what you read is what was really said.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    I'm reviewing the transcript right now, and noted how optimistic TG is about Multi-Link:

     

    "Thomas Granville
    We were actually over there last Thursday as a matter of fact. That partnership certainly continues, we’re enthused about that, I have been over there myself, I like the company, I like the people, I like their forward thinking, we have several batteries on tests here in our test with them, they will be rolling out a new product and I don’t want to start speaking for them. Let’s just say that they have a new product that they are going to be rolling out and we want to be there with them providing part of that product."
    2 Apr, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    TG's closing comments:

     

    "Thomas Granville
    Well I am going to mention here in my closing remarks than it’s a short 44 days to the next call. And we’re looking forward to that call because we’re looking forward to update everybody on how that is going and progress that we’re making. Would I love to have seven or eight of these projects under lock and key? Absolutely. Walk before we run for sure, is this a Norfolk Southern automotive scenario where it’s going to take forever to test, no that’s not where we are."
    2 Apr, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    With what appears to be increased use of stop/start technology in more and more automobiles, can someone please explain why these car manufacturers are not buying Axion's Pbc, which appears to be superior. Is it a cost issue? is it because it is the standard difficult to break through legacy technology issue?

     

    Please forgive this question if it has been discussed. I'm relatively new to the forum. I'm a little intimidated asking as it appears that there are some very smart folks here and this is a rather basic question. Thanks in advance.
    2 Apr, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    "can someone please explain why these car manufacturers are not buying Axion's Pbc, which appears to be superior"

     

    In order to get anything other than conjecture, TG would have to directly answer this question. To date, he has only given vague answers when pressed.
    2 Apr, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Milo> No automaker has ever publicly stated any reason for not using PbC in stop/start. Axion has reported that several have undergone extensive testing of the PbC, all shrouded in secrecy. In fact only BMW is named, and IIRC possibly GM looked at PbC at some point. A "top 5 Asian" automaker has seemed serious about testing PbC.

     

    Until an automaker publicly states it has decided against PbC we can only speculate as to an answer to your question. We know PbC has higher cost and has supply chain reliability concerns for large quantities. We also know that as a new technology that automakers would have to redesign their products around, their testing protocols are extremely rigorous and lengthy.
    2 Apr, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Retired:: Based on another comment somewhere on one of these forums, Li-Ion battery packs for hybrid uses (Hi Power / Low total energy) cost around $2-3K/kwh of energy storage.

     

    Assuming such battery packs will run at 5C (total charge in 12min, total discharge in 12min), they are actually 2-3 times more costly than PbC. They are however, lighter.

     

    Other battery technologies are somewhat cheaper than PbC, but as John has explained ad-nauseum, they have much lower capabilities. From a power-capability and lifetime perspective, PcB is very cost competitive. It is however, somewhat heavy.
    2 Apr, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    "somewhat heavy."

     

    "He ain't heavy, he's my druther"! ;-))

     

    http://bit.ly/QGb0m7

     

    <*tap*>, <*tap*>

     

    Guess I need to replace my ear piece.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    James> PbC is higher cost than lead-acid with or without carbon additives. That was my comparison.

     

    You are correct that PbC is actually cheaper than lithium but to my knowledge lithium is not a contender in the stop/start space due to cost. Lithium is used in auto for motive drivetrain power but it's overkill for just cranking the starter and running the A/C.
    2 Apr, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    That song can be modified for Axion so well....

     

    "that leads us too.... who knows where.. who knows where... So on we go!!!""

     

    Thanks HTL for bringing back memories of old fraternity days, that's a popular "brother" song.
    2 Apr, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    HT Love:: I love you man. And its very difficult.
    2 Apr, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    JameBBecker: " And its very difficult. "

     

    LoL! Really, that got my funny bone going!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    James, I concur. Since becoming a follower of the APC, almost nothing has been more difficult than loving HTL. Somehow it's just hard. Yet soldier on in our love we must.
    2 Apr, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    I hope this isn't a movement, a la "Alice's Restaurant".

     

    If 8x10 glossy photos start showing up ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1gPh3yk

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    I'm more partial to:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ed9Svi

     

    We are building it bigger...
    2 Apr, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (282) | Send Message
     
    welcome aboard, Milo!
    2 Apr, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Where You are, where I am is with Capstone and Walmart's selection of it to be in their energy efficient Truck Prototype of the future.

     

    Don't get too excited but I do have more shares of AXPW than I do of Capstone...only 3k of CPST.

     

    Bought it at .141 when it broke above .14 on heavy volume.

     

    I figure Putin will force All Battery makers up.
    2 Apr, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    The WalMart concept truck is one of the coolest things I've ever seen but I suspect the economics will be challenging for the vast majority of competitive freight haulers that currently spend 35% of their revenue on fuel but only bring 3% to 5% to the bottom line.
    2 Apr, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    I suspect price was not much of a constraint on this concept truck because it's just a concept.

     

    As to what Walmart actually puts into use, knowing that they are one of the most price-conscious companies on the planet, I seriously doubt the truck in it's present form will ever carry much real frieght.

     

    D
    2 Apr, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    WalMart needs all the good PR they can possibly create. Throw this out there now, but when the time comes to put money down, buy something a lot cheaper.
    2 Apr, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    @Freya: I'm excited!
    2 Apr, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I have read somewhere in a nutrition book that the usa spends 10 calories of energy for transportation per one calorie of food. Bringing that down to 7 calories is something remarkable.
    2 Apr, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    I just received an email with the following advertisement aimed at design engineers. The design discussed is for an automotive audio system. From Texas Instruments.

     

    "This reference design is also applicable in start/stop systems.

     

    Key Features • Wide input operating voltage from 4.5 V to 52 V "
    2 Apr, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (336) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TA Star
    2 Apr, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    I see significant resistance at $0.27. Then $0.65. Then $1.20.
    2 Apr, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    Then the Van Allen belt, with luck.
    2 Apr, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Gotta say Patrick, you have me looking forward to "significant resistance". :)
    2 Apr, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    PY,

     

    Axion had resistance today after a great CC. Either traders are flipping or those who bought near a dime want to grab their 50-75% profits and redeploy.
    2 Apr, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Resistance today? On 1.2 million shares? hardly significant at all. Let's see where the stock settles after another 6 million share day.
    2 Apr, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Yes Renzo, beyond $1.20, there are very few shares above this price point. It's anyone's guess after the buck level. News that warrants a $10 pps will get us to $1 before it gets us to $2. Where the thing peaks is immaterial to those of us who held through the penny marks.
    2 Apr, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    6 Million share days aren't going to happen very often without significant PR and Axion IR doesn't promote very well. Only hope is for NS news to get noticed more broadly.
    3 Apr, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Well I guess it had to happen. Even the obscure China TMK Battery DFEL is waking up.

     

    Caution: The company has gone dark and it is illiquid. This is a interest only in that it is sector related.

     

    Edit: This meaning for anyone even thinking of it.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hAYkq0
    2 Apr, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Could be last chance to buy AXPW at 0.17xx
    2 Apr, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Just a few left at $0.1799 - don't say you weren't warned. BWAAAA-HAHAHAHAHA!
    2 Apr, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    I've really wanted to buy all day, though my AXPW investment is already too-irresponsibly-larg...

     

    Aargh. Only live once. One last limit order @ 0.1752 then. And then not again.

     

    And now the price is at 0.1800. Better change it to a GTC!
    2 Apr, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Slippery slope, there, Sohkubo...
    2 Apr, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Yikes, it filled, AXPW is officially over 25% of my portfolio. My family is likely to remember me as either a genius or a dolt.
    2 Apr, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    +7000 at $0.176

     

    Might be my last chance to average down.
    2 Apr, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Sohkubo, SWMBO has already informed me as to which of your choices I am.

     

    The advantage is that at least I know the case is settled. :>)
    2 Apr, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    Congrats Sohkubo . . wish you 'genius' remembrance along with me and so many others.

     

    Until recently I considered Axion a high spec position for many reasons, not the least of which was to protect my ego in case the 'dolt' scenario played out. My evaluation greatly changed with the appointment of Mr. DiGiacinto and other recent events.

     

    Nonetheless, I will not be surprised to see a pullback even to the .10 area or beyond from something which has little or nothing to do with the viability our company. I do plan to add shares and have no qualms about the price today but am comfortable with my current long position and am in no hurry.
    2 Apr, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    21% here.
    2 Apr, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    sold my zinc yesterday and my platinum today.
    2 Apr, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Zinc and platinum into carbon and lead, eh?
    2 Apr, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    That doesn't make it sound quite as inviting as I envision it., but the iron-y didn't escape me. :)
    2 Apr, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Weighing the specific gravity of your move I suspect it passes the acid test. Ready to charge ahead. Errr someday....maybe.
    2 Apr, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Most of my non-retirement investment is in real estate--just can't beat it for income, inflation protection, and tax shelter. But, of my more liquid non-real estate investments, Axion is over 30%. If I ever get back to my cost basis, it will be more like 50%.
    2 Apr, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (282) | Send Message
     
    Yes, VW, you can go through life content....no insurmountable barriers, no unreasonable expectations....ME, TOO!!!!
    2 Apr, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Geo, do you hope to grab some more near 10 cents? Can't tell if that was a warning or optimism.
    2 Apr, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    bazoooo . . Would almost for sure buy if price falls to .10 neighborhood again. May well buy higher if conditions suggest it.
    2 Apr, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Edmund. You and I see this thing the same way as JP. Massive gaps in cost basis exist between ten cents and thirty cents. We've already proven the sixteen cent support. The only thing holding this stock back in a bull environment are holders who may say "Phew, after two years I'm break even. Time to get out." These people have cost basis at 0.30, 0.65, 1.20.
    2 Apr, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    People have asked how I could accumulate so many shares at my age.

     

    Three words:

     

    I'm All In.
    2 Apr, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1033) | Send Message
     
    just above 60% here ;)
    3 Apr, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Are you diversified? Remember, slow and steady wins the race.
    3 Apr, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1033) | Send Message
     
    nope, I consider diversification a protection against ignorance
    3 Apr, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    NicU: Which is why I like diversification: I'm quite ignorant.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    I love HTL: He made me laugh out loud at work. :)
    3 Apr, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Edmund,

     

    Please allow me to be the fly in the ointment.

     

    In view of yesterday's "great" (my word) conference call, I have to wonder why we haven't punched through $.17 yet. Reasonably light volume today, so I still think plumbers are holding 500K shares and dumping for fun now & then. So maybe we Axionistas are not yet ready to believe our own press releases, keeping $0.18 sticky-side down.

     

    On the other hand, twice in February TTBOMM we were dredging through $0.09 - $0.10 swampland. That makes $0.17 seem pretty snazzy I guess. At least short term.

     

    So I guess I don't know what to think. Do we believe we are about to launch? Or are we watching one another like gunfighters each waiting to pull the trigger only when the other guy's hand begins to move?

     

    Either case is interesting .... to me anyway. I am convinced we are looking at a five bagger before year end and to miss the first nickel or so hardly matters at all. If SWMBO were not studying me so closely with her pistol in hand maybe my greed would allow me to pull the trigger today on low volume. 'Course, if frogs had wings . . . . . :>)

     

    My sense is that 1 June will look very attractive to AXPW holders. Only fear keeps me from starting the vacuum today. Not fear of losing money. Fear of the pistol.
    2 Apr, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Just a sec, Valley, let me pull out my PbC, fiddle with a couple wires, bzzzzzzt, no more fly.

     

    I recall your confidence that NSC would see this battery project through. It was always my favorite platform for the PbC. It's a real nice-looking loco, and there's many who would be delighted to see it roll again. If we were waiting for a clear path to sales from a major player, I think we can hardly go wrong short-term and we could really go long long-term.

     

    I am really looking forward to the next few months.
    2 Apr, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    "Course, if frogs had wings . . . . . :>)"

     

    Still totally ignorant.
    Just the way we want them..... until it's too late .....

     

    Bah hah ha hah!
    3 Apr, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    I've really wanted to buy all day, though my AXPW investment is already too-irresponsibly-larg...

     

    I am with you brother! I just can't!!
    2 Apr, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Got this report today (in response to my forwarding the relevant Conference Call transcription section):

     

    "You'll be happy to hear 999 is back in the shop as of a week or two ago."

     

    Guess we needed actual Spring to get a Spring in our step!
    2 Apr, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    GREAT NEWS!!!!
    2 Apr, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    I have to get a liquor license so have something to celebrate with.
    2 Apr, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    WT, awesome!!!
    2 Apr, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Great news wtb, thx. Didn't see anything on AltoonaWorks' fb page, so especially nice to have your connection intact.

     

    Looks like the 999 is really going to be rolling around the yard this time. Even if yard testing takes awhile, the benefit from the PR alone, unofficial or official, should help a lot. A significant number of guys got involved w/ AXPW because of rail.
    2 Apr, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Good news indeed! Won't be long until the program is back "on track", so to speak.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    I would not be surprised if NSC was planning the roll out to time with their next CC on Wednesday, April 23, 2014:
    http://yhoo.it/1i2ERej
    2 Apr, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    NSC actually responded to you?
    2 Apr, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Detecting Lithium Faults: http://bit.ly/1ed6j8e
    2 Apr, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Near the close, I bought a block at .1799, and .1798.

     

    Also force-filled my partial order at .1753 in the gamer account.

     

    Nice to see the .1797 close.

     

    Now own well north of half the shares I used to own. We now have 5 months for stuff to happen. I can't see the share price going down much from today's close.
    2 Apr, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    That was me at 17.25 cents for a long time. Never got hit, so I also bought some higher.

     

    Not only do I think a big fall is off the table now, but sure feels like another run is upcoming. Not sure exactly when, but I'd rather not miss it.
    2 Apr, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Some random thoughts on the market action, FWIW.

     

    It's good to see so much optimism on this board after basically 12 months dominated by negativity of one sort or another as the pps sank and good news proved elusive. I for one am not convinced though that the share price is now bottoming thus creating 'one last great buying opportunity'.

     

    Instead I think the 10k and cc grabbed the attention of the market for a short while bringing in buyers from the sidelines. Some will buy more if it dips, supporting price somewhat. However I tend to believe that post cc enthusiasm will likely fade (absent good news) so that a buying opportunity at least 10 or 15 percent lower than the .1797 closing is likely later in April.

     

    Beyond April I'll stay fully invested and probably avoid trading as too many potential good news "irons" are in the fire and I don't want to miss the takeoff. So I'm 90% invested now but hope to be 100% soon. If support fails badly and we head back towards 10-12 cents in the coming weeks I will be backing up the truck to an overweight.

     

    I did get a buy order to execute in my Roth for under .10 in March but am kicking myself for not raising the limit of another buy order once .10 was breached. My Roth needs more shares! I thought about it but the price had spent so many days below .10 that I came to expect it. BIG mistake! Looks like a dream price now. Whoda thunk back then, a mere 28 days ago!
    2 Apr, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    RA, I wish I'd have added more in my Roth also. Most of my sub 14-cent adds were in my regular brokerage account and my weighting is approximately 70% brokerage, 30% Roth IRA. Ironically, maybe, my first adds were all in my Roth and that was around 29-33 cents per share back in 2012.

     

    I was able to pick up 15K shares at 9.5 cents but again, that was my brokerage account. My cost average is around 16 cents in my Roth but only 12 cents in my brokerage account. Live and learn.
    2 Apr, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Wow, JP is indeed right about the catfish mentality here. =)
    2 Apr, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    isthis> Yes, shares in a Roth have great potential. No cap gains tax ever, no waiting for a year for long term tax treatment. With a little luck some great trading gains too that I wouldn't attempt in a taxable account.

     

    My Roth also has far fewer shares and much higher cost basis.
    2 Apr, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    " ... a buying opportunity at least 10 or 15 percent lower than the .1797 closing is likely later in April. "

     

    For better or worse, said buying opportunity has come to pass. I bought some today and then watched in awe as the opportunity quickly arose to buy a further 8-10% lower. Wish I could pick bottoms with greater accuracy!
    15 Apr, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    RA
    " Wish I could pick bottoms with greater accuracy! "

     

    Don't we all...Tops too while we're at it.
    15 Apr, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    I like when TG said that just 1.5% of the semi rebuilds could generate $125,000,000 in battery sales for AXPW.
    That makes us a profitable company at a 7% margin.
    2 Apr, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    I especially like how he pointed out success was higher than 1.5%, higher even than 5%...
    2 Apr, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood: Permit me to argue the "bear" side if you will.

     

    First, the stock was down a penny or two on the 10K alone before the call started so the call did result in roughly a 10% increase in the share price.

     

    We exit the call with the very strong indication that there will be at least one powercube sale by mid-May. While the 45 day time period is shorter than the "it won't be 6 months" date mentioned in the last call, they essentially cover the same time frame. Therefore, we should think of it as TG doubling down on the promise he made last fall. That's good but not earth-shaking if you believed him in the first place.

     

    The fact that NS confirmed that it is delayed and has provided a new timeline is also moderately good news. That is partially offset by the dashed hopes (even JP that great hopium smoker himself) that the program was moving ahead under secrecy. So, yes, having a date is a positive, but it also confirms that Norfolk Southern moves at a glacial pace. Actually, that's probably unfair to glaciers since we're looking at 2 years from the time they placed the order for the batteries and when they'll actually put them in the prototype unit to begin operational testing.

     

    Not part of the call, but I'm sure you know way better than the rest of us that once the 999 becomes operational they aren't just going to run it around for a few weeks and declare success like they did last time and place an order. My guess is that the over/under for the testing period will be a year. On the flip side, the new patent information indicates to me that NS may be dramatically increasing its expectation of the potential for electrification in its business. So, long-term VG but over the next year all we have to look for from NS is a possible single OTR sale.

     

    To me, those two items were the key items from the call that could impact the stock price in the short-term. Nothing new came from ePower and that total lack of mention of automotive certainly indicates that the entire industry, not just BMW, is not being counted on for anything.

     

    To me, that adds up to little more than a relief rally that there wasn't really any bad news. When you couple those two points with the lack of automotive progress and the 10K statement that the flooded contract is going to start to wind down I can see the stock essentially ending up where it was going into the call as a victory of sorts.

     

    To me, this last point is of great importance, especially when combined with Maya's point from last summer about margins and revenue growth.

     

    Axion's burn rate of $1.5m to $2m per quarter would likely be significantly higher if it weren't for the flooded contract. If we assume 20% margin on the roughly $8m in flooded business, that is $400k per quarter (remember because EP supplies the materials that $8m is just for labor and overhead).

     

    If Axion has 25% margin on the PbC then to make up for that contract the company would have to sell $1.6m of PbC's each quarter or nearly 2 megawatt hours of powercubes, which is equal to six bySolar deals. To get to break-even, we're talking more like 6 - 8 megawatts hours of powercubes each quarter. My point being is that the 10K and call in total indicated to me that Axion very likely will experience a decrease in revenue in the coming quarters as the toll business declines before PbC ramps.

     

    Some will argue that the new EP factory won't be coming on line until year-end and thus Axion won't experience a decline in flooded revenue until 2015. My bet is that TG wouldn't have put it in the 10K right now but instead would have waited until the 4Q quarterly report when nobody would care because the ramp in PbC revenue will have already started.

     

    Personally, the call was enough to give me a feeling of relief because I had feared we were headed back down to $.10 based on the 10K.
    2 Apr, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    "lack of automotive progress and the 10K statement that the flooded contract is going to start to wind down I can see the stock essentially ending up where it was going into the call as a victory of sorts."

     

    Al, that perspective is shared here.

     

    Personally, I don't see why anyone should be surprised by disclosure that the toll contract for assembly of flooded LABs will come to an end. IINM, TG gave a time line on that contract's life when it was last extended. If memory serves the contract was due to expire in July or August of this year. That time line may or may not be tied into completion of East Penn's facilities expansion. (I tend to think Axion's profit margin on the toll contract is on the order of 10%.)

     

    TG's remarks about looking forward to an opportunity to update shareholders in 44 days struck me as 100% positive PR spin on lack of signing any more "significant" sales contracts to date. The fact he threw out some a possible counts of contracts which might be awarded only suggested to me that a larger number of bids have been on the table for some time and signing on the dotted line is no more assured now than it has been in the past.

     

    TG's commentary on NS999 status and future timeline was taken here with several grains of salt. While I find it plausible extended cold weather prompted need for more repairs than normal, it just does not ring true to me onset of unexpected cold weather repairs consumed the Altoona Shops work schedule virtually the entire year. Temperatures in Maryland, for instance, really did not fall into the below normal range until late November or early December. NSC's order of chargers was encouraging as was the suggested revised NS999 completion schedule (but I will believe it when I see it moving under its' own power). Frankly, to me, wtb's report today that the NS999 had been moved back into the work shops was more encouraging than anything TG had to say.

     

    TG's MultiLink commentary was encouraging, but that and the price of a Starbuck's coffee will get me a Starbuck's coffee.

     

    "Bearish" I will remain until more PbC sales contracts are signed on the dotted line.
    2 Apr, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I may be completely mistaken and I want to acknowledge that up front, but it doesn't sound at all far-fetched that a harsh winter could preoccupy the entirety of NSC's maintenance staff. For the first time, working in production, I have seen what cold weather can do to a maintenance team staffed for a lean economy. I guess my perception all comes down to my opinions of TG, which I think fundamentally differ from yours; so not to strike up an argument, but my humble opinion is that the winter weather is 100% the cause for the delay in the 999 launch. NSC has money to be made on rolling out electric locos, too. But at the end of the day, it's about meeting orders and making today's buck.
    2 Apr, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    Isthis ... I too could be completely mistaken re-cold weather. Note, though, I'm not arguing that cold weather had no effect on incidence of repairs, just observing that onset of colder than normal weather did not appear until quite late in 2013. (Spent a Winter in central Alaska at sub-zero temps; saw effects of cold on machinery.) Cold weather in January-February 2014 don't count on a 2013 work schedule.

     

    :-) Whatever the case re-cold weather, we now have a report that the locomotive was moved back into the shops a couple of weeks ago. If it emerges under its own power & reconstituted with PbC batteries in a couple of weeks I will readily acknowledge my skepticism of the cold weather explanation was unwarranted. If emergence is end-April or later ....
    3 Apr, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Agreed. Timing was late enough that a fourth quarter roll-out should only have seen minimal effects from cold weather. The next month will be telling. I'll be paying closer attention to timing and I'm glad you clarified that point. I think it will speak volumes to note how vocal NSC is when the 999 gets rolling; even if their last roll-out makes them gun-shy.
    3 Apr, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    @ apmarsh, re': "That is partially offset by the dashed hopes (even JP that great hopium smoker himself) that the program was moving ahead under secrecy. "

     

    In fact, if you looked at the new text and claims in the Feb 2014 patent and the materials that User 383 brought in from FOIA reports, you would see clear evidence that a great deal of progress did occur in the intervening months between Axion delivering batteries for the NS999 program and the NS999 being brought back into the shop.

     

    btw, Your attempt at name-calling was unfortunate as it immediately diminishes your input; fortunately, your attempt seems to have been misconstructed, which will earn you at least chuckle or two. And here NCIS had me thinking Naval Intelligence was a step up from the oxymoronic CIA.
    2 Apr, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3931) | Send Message
     
    EM ... In my view "program was moving ahead under secrecy" referred to suggestions/hopes batteries purchased for reconstruction of the NS999 were used to build an alternative locomotive in a location other than Altoona to maintain a "blackout" on its performance until the second generation proves the concept or that the batteries were used to build an OTR locomotive. That is not the same thing as suggesting all work on electric locomotives had stopped.

     

    Regarding a Feb 2014 patent award, ISTM work on the patent application was completed by the time the patent application was submitted which I suspect was quite some time before Feb 2014. Award of a patent in Feb 2014 in and of itself indicates nothing more than when the patent office completed action on the patent application.

     

    "btw, Your attempt at name-calling was unfortunate as it immediately diminishes your input; "

     

    Say what? What "name-calling"?
    2 Apr, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: My "name calling" was intended only as humor since I think few of us would think of JP as a wide-eyed optimist but even he thought NS had put the batteries in another locomotive that was being tested elsewhere out of the limelight.

     

    If I had a problem with John I'd reach out to him directly just like I have so many times when I've had questions and issues. Every time he has graciously taken my calls and patiently answered my questions even when it was clear that I didn't agree with him.

     

    As far as the Norfolk Southern progress goes I did acknowledge the progress implied in the patents but also placed it in the "two birds in the bush" category. Agree or disagree as you wish.

     

    If you took the time to look at my posting history I think you'd have a hard time finding a case where I ever attacked anyone personally, and that includes Tom Granville. What you will see is someone who is attempting to make a positive contribution to this board by looking critically and objectively at each issue and writing relatively few but in-depth (at least long) comments. You may think I'm a bear and I'm OK with that. But if you look, you'll see plenty of instances where I make bullish points as well.

     

    I really appreciate the statements some folks wrote down below in the thread.
    2 Apr, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    apm, I've sincerely valued your contributions here and you've brought points to my attention that I may have overlooked for one reason or another, bullish and bearish alike.
    2 Apr, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    re': Say what? What "name-calling"?

     

    Apparently he deleted the offending message from which I took the quote, D-inv.

     

    Works for me. Over and out.
    2 Apr, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    apm just moved to the top of my list of people who have the most realistic, balanced outlook of the potential risks/rewards of investing in Axion.
    3 Apr, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    NGS: I agree - I liked his balanced analysis for quite some time!

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    John, in the recent kerfuffle I'm not sure if anyone has asked you: how did the Louisville truck show go? I'm sure you'd update us in good time anyway, but was wondering if a) an ePower truck made it to the show intact and b) broadly, what impressions the technology seemed to make on those who saw it.
    2 Apr, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29565) | Send Message
     
    Our principal reasons for going to Louisville were meetings with potential component suppliers. We did a few test drives, but they were for suppliers rather than customers. I travelled to Florence today for a couple days of meetings and plan to stay through Sunday. Hopefully I'll have something to talk about when I get home.
    2 Apr, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    "I traveled to Florence today for a couple days of meetings and plan to stay through Sunday."

     

    I hope that's Kentucky and not Italy on the ePower dime, haha. :>)
    3 Apr, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Monday's EOD stuff.

     

    03/31/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 786801, AvTrSz: 8029
    Min. Pr: 0.1570, Max Pr: 0.1793, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1673
    # Buys, Shares: 27 304323, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1695
    # Sells, Shares: 70 477478, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1658
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1677
    Buy:Sell 1:1.57 (38.68% "buys"), DlyShts 258136 (32.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.06%

     

    There was 1 after-hours trade for 70K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that ...

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0812 vs. $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767 and $0.0766 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1338 vs. $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354 and $0.1376 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.19%, 0.17%, 0.05%, 28.00% and -17.91% respectively. Price spread today was 14.20% vs. 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84% and 10.43% on prior days.

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 98 trades, 9.18%. These 331,100 shares were 42.08% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1669. Only 2 of these trades, 22.22%, were buys ...

     

    The other 89 trades, 90.82% of the day's trades, traded 455,701 shares, 57.92% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1675. 25 trades, 28.09%, were buys ...

     

    Yesterday I said price range moved right back into where it looks like consolidation again. Today the top was right in the range of recent prior highs, causing me to adjust my resistance ... yielding a horizontal resistance. If this turns out as the line suggests, we will be consolidating in a sideways trading channel ...

     

    I mentioned yesterday the volume said the move up doesn't have strength even though we had a move up in all other respects. Today the volume was a bit higher (see above), but the price action was essentially the same, with piddling variations, in the highs and lows. So I can't see “strength” here even with improved volume.

     

    I do want to note, again, that our traditional late-day weakness seems to be no longer the normal behavior. Late-day strength seems the M.O. More days than not now, and today seems to support that assessment.

     

    The [inflection point calculations'] newer version's chart pattern, which had been suggesting a move lower was coming, is now abandoning that stance and suggesting what in the past has been a sideways, mostly, behavior.

     

    The usual stuff is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    I'm in the camp that believes it's unlikely the pps will go much lower than we are now, and even more unlikely we'll ever re-visit the .10 mark. Of course anything could happen, but I look at the fact that a doomsday scenario seems to be off the table at this time (which helped drive the pps to .09); and a couple of other things:

     

    1) It took the PIPRs many months with tens of millions of shares to drive the pps down from .17 at the time of TK's article last summer, to .09 in January, or about .01 per month. Just don't see how the pps could be driven down in a similar manner w/o the PIPRs.

     

    2) TG's comment: "Would I love to have seven or eight of these projects under lock and key?" --- This sentence sort of answered a lingering question for me; what did the plural in "significant sales" indicate. I had considered 3-5 to be a reasonable guess, but TG's statement makes me think it's more like 7-8. Which makes the odds of something breaking soon all the higher.

     

    I have to agree with and give credence to APMarshall's points about the tolling contract. I felt TG whiffed on that one, and in typical fashion, evaded giving details to a pretty direct question. Which of course makes me think this issue has the potential to be more concerning than he's letting on. But I don't think it will get in the way of near-term developments or near-term pps action (2-3 mos).

     

    I especially liked something TG said in the cc about the potential size of PC orders: --- "totaling up all the megawatts, but say that it’s certainly more than 10, because 10 might be one project for example, that we have a proposal out for."
    --
    So, they have a proposal out for a single PC project of over 10Mw? Sounds significant. [Would anybody care to do some battery and dollar calculations on that one?] --- This in combination with so many other potential upside catalysts makes me think the near-term pps movement will most likely trend higher, accompanied by a continuing potential for a big breakout.
    2 Apr, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Wayne,

     

    Counter point, if you look at past placements you will see that most go off at a significant discount two a weighted volume average of trailing prices (50-100 day). Thus these next few months need to have decent volume and pps or we could indeed see the low .10-.14 again. Also there is the risk that the placements agents push for a quick close like happened in 2012 just when the stock was starting to heal. Thus if that happens to us before Summer than its' the same ole "woulda coulda" game. Today's lack of volume and pps movement after a decent 10k call yesterday doesn't give me warm and fuzzies. Also PLUG and ZBB off near 50% from their highs so sector mania unlikely to help us going forward.
    2 Apr, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Wayne> I disagree and think if no meaningful sales as the next financing starts to draw nearer we could easily revisit recent lows.

     

    You're correct that the price decline being as slow as it was last year under relentless PIPE selling on its face makes it seem that 2014 should be better since no big relentless sellers. However if the market's attention turns to yet another round of failed sales forecasts, and financing starts looming, I think it could easily head toward single digits.

     

    Remember that Axionistas now have a bitter taste for just how devastating financing can be. In 2013, about 110M shares were initially outstanding. Now it's almost twice that. Maybe the shares are not in the hands of determined sellers now, but there are twice as many of them.

     

    Should eager buying dry up, not that much selling would be required to push it down in such a low dollar-volume market. Finally, many shrewd and big money buyers concern themselves with market cap when they bid, not share price. (It's the smart way to look at it of course.) Diluted market cap now is around $37 million. Very recently the market cap was only half of that. (For exact dates somebody could look through my past comments as I brought that up.)

     

    Has the potential for a Kia application (unlikely), the 10k and the cc really contained information on Axion's prospects that make the company TWICE as valuable as it was a couple months ago? IMO not at all. I think the story is almost unchanged, but that's just me.
    2 Apr, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (282) | Send Message
     
    As far a recent lows are concerned, I wonder if we will be stuck in a range where nobody wants to sell their shares at these prices (I won't!), and if the share price drops a little, many will be buying! (I would!). Therefore, the pps stays in a range about where it is now. I believe there are the orders that TG promised back in November....I believed him then and I believe him now! I believe that the PC train is getting ready to leave the station...and it has more (PC) cars attached than anyone imagines...and more (PC) cars will keep being added!! I believe that will be a catalyst for share price increase. Add to that news from NSC about the viability of the PbC "KING IN A STRING" on the 999, and Multi-Link news, OEM battery mfg news, watch out! Generally, I'm bullish from here. If downside does somehow come, it seems like it will a fantasy buying opportunity! Like someone said earlier...back up the truck!
    3 Apr, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    "I believe that the PC train ... has more (PC) cars attached than anyone imagines"

     

    ... based on the hopium pipe? Isn't it better to stay rooted in facts? I think the PbC PC is a very compelling solution too but whether that translates into multiple inked orders before the next financing is another question.
    3 Apr, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    For those keeping score.

     

    Axion's blog count:

     

    PC-related posts: 4 (with 3 of those about solar)

     

    Rail posts: 1

     

    Truck posts: 1

     

    Total: 6

     

    Hmmm...Bysolar sale in 12/2013, with more wins expected soon. NS putting the 999 together this Q. ePower progress.

     

    I think we have a new leading indicator, lol.
    2 Apr, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    apm & Edmund,

     

    I swallow the bear case (for the stock) and I'm happy with accepting it. I think we still have a great deal of thin ice over which to skate before we celebrate in earnest.

     

    FWIW, Edmund, if you review my past posts re: NSC, you will actually find that I have said that NS has already given me what I want by naming us partner. I have always said that NS was extremely serious about TEMLO, would give every effort to make it work, but that I had no idea if it (TEMLO) would be adopted. NSC will do what NSC will do, and I remain convinced that TEMLO will be adopted. I sure wouldn't bet on it though. I bought Axion because I know without question NSC is brutal in its testing, and because they publicly endorsed our product, that (their endorsement) is what made me buy the stock. Okay, maybe I knew before the general announcement, but I know how they work, and if PbC did not work, we would have known that immediately.

     

    I think apm has nailed this thing dead center. I see and endorse the bear case. Based upon price resistance near $.18 I believe we have not yet embraced our own press releases (on this concentrator) and we will resist confidence in ourselves for awhile yet.

     

    All that said, (golly, here I wish I could revive the posts on this topic) I seem to recall that I considered the cube the immediate star, ePower the second at two years out, NSC as possible three years out, and autos, I really don't have much interest.

     

    I believe that apm has correctly nailed sequence and evaluation but anticipate cubes surprising us in intensity and breadth, ePower remains a mystery (I really do wish them luck. You can't imagine how much !) , and I BELIEVE NSC will surprise us with how powerfully they can move.

     

    FWIW, NSC has not been sitting on their hands. They never do. I will leave it at that. They are and have been moving far faster than can be imagined. The facts might leave us breathless. It is essential to remember however that they are dealing in very big numbers and do not move foolishly.

     

    I have faith in ePower. I am buying Edmund's platinum he is selling, and I will sleep comfortably with my position in AXPW, all the while with the pistol held by Her Majesty.

     

    Oh yeah. The five-bagger prediction stands. $0.85 stands by EOY. I will hope for more.
    2 Apr, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    "NSC will do what NSC will do, and I remain convinced that "TEMLO will be adopted. I sure wouldn't bet on it though. I bought Axion because I know without question NSC is brutal in its testing, and because they publicly endorsed our product, that (their endorsement) is what made me buy the stock. Okay, maybe I knew before the general announcement, but I know how they work, and if PbC did not work, we would have known that immediately."

     

    VW, Are you not really betting on it with your investment?

     

    BTW, I feel the same way about automotive as you feel about NSC concerning your confidence level in the PbC based on how I know they will test the product. Also feel they have far more resources that have expertise in energy storage and even if Axio never gets an auto contract I know based on their testing the PbC is a great product and the process doesn't have holes. Also if there are issues BMW has them nailed down on action plans to progress and make the product bulletproof.

     

    On a side note. I bet that rail leads as the path to success. Maybe they get a few power cubes but I'm not as sure in this area as anything more than some work to keep the shop from being MT. Not really looking to debate the topic though.
    2 Apr, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    <<<<<On a side note. I bet that rail leads as the path to success. Maybe they get a few power cubes but I'm not as sure in this area as anything more than some work to keep the shop from being MT. Not really looking to debate the topic though.>>>>...

     

    @iindy: You can count me in your camp.

     

    I think Axion's success ultimately hinges on NSC, come Hell or High Water. Some Cube sales will be swell, but the real heavy lifting will come from NSC.

     

    That is why I added significantly more shares to my already substantial position after the CC. With a new timeline for the Norfolk Southern 999 "Green Weenie" coming out of the dark (so to speak) "sometime in Q2."
    2 Apr, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    OR, NSC or ePower or Auto. Being an early player in our PC market could, I think, provide multiple years of runway for Axion to secure other deals in their other markets. Which of those you find most likely is up for debate but my opinion is that NSC mustn't adopt PbC for Axion to be successful, though their broad adoption would ensure Axion's success.
    2 Apr, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Isthis, I think most here don't recognize the change that's happened in the stationary mkt recently. Not only has the user demand increased dramatically, but it's been pulled closer in time. Lots of competition still, but this isn't your daddy's PC mkt anymore.
    3 Apr, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    >>I think Axion's success ultimately hinges on NSC, come Hell or High Water.<<

     

    I can't see that NSC would be buying more than 1,000 batteries here and a few hundred there for the next couple of years. Axion needs to sell tens of thousands of batteries per quarter to become profitable. It will take a mix of all markets combined to get there and Power Cubes have the greatest near-term potential for starting that ramp.
    3 Apr, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    NGS: I agree with you. Axion needs the widest possible market for its products.

     

    Short term, though, it needed the NSC news to support the share price and give it a potentially valuable PR event series. NSC is all about the PR, much more than the direct sales.

     

    Looking ahead past June, through the end of 2014, say, the PC sales must be the meat and potatoes that keep the plant working and the cash flow flowing.

     

    In 2015 we could see some progress from ePower, and NSC as well, but hopefully also in the now downgraded auto and truck (APU?) sectors, pointing toward 2016 and beyond.

     

    Without the NSC update, the CC was a flat recital of an already extant (and rapidly aging) TG promise.

     

    Otherwise, I would not be trading the .18 - .20 channel right now.
    3 Apr, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    NGS, Just a thought. We're a little over a year as a commercial entity and we've sold 1 PowerCube. I think there will be more but I don't think the change will be digital.

     

    I do think we will see a OTR loco from NSC before the NS 999 is fully validated. I also think a second order will be more the catalyst than the commercial ramp.

     

    This being said, I do think we'll see a raise before we have a clear firm path to commercial success. So at least one more painful one. Just don't know how we ramp sales fast enough to avoid this.

     

    Edit: I'm hoping the raise comes after a run in price of sufficient duration to give Axion some leverage. ;-D Muy importante.
    3 Apr, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    iinde, I guess I have a different concept about the investment potential/thesis. I see a $40mil mkt cap for a company with numerous potential mega mkts as essentially priced to fail. Any signs of non-failure are supportive of the stk price. Any strong signs and a >=$100mil mkt cap ranges from very reasonable to conservative.

     

    I get the "we've been beaten down for so long" effect, and think that it's only just starting to wear off. That, and some new money with freshly set time horizons of several years has really helped support the price recently.
    3 Apr, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I can't argue your points. But I also am aware that Axion will have to use its currency again this year and since sales will be slow in developing there is a reasonable probability that Axion will once again find less than optimum financing. I'm hoping the heat we are seeing in the sector allows this to happen from a better vantage point relative to the share price. So far so good.
    3 Apr, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Priced to fail? How is something with zero future earnings worth $40 million? For a company to be worth $40 million, assuming no liquidation value, IMO it needs to throw off about $3.5 to $4 million in annual profit or less if growth expected. So I'd say now it IS priced for profitability and growth but just not the true growth potential which is triple digits.
    3 Apr, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    iinde, yep, we all know the next round could be bad again. But I think we've got some good recovery time here for the stk price to rebound enough to get a much better deal done than the doomsday scenario. Something like 30mil shares at 35 cents seems very doable to me. I think it will be much better than that, though.
    3 Apr, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I hope your right. I'd think we'd need to be on firmer ground than we are right now though to see the level of share price offering you're targeting. However, I'll admit after watching equities like TSLA and PLUG who knows.
    3 Apr, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    iinde, that's just it. I believe that just the PIPEnd and the sector reheating alone could take us back to 30 cents+, even with no announcements in the short run. We've been beat-down by those biggies for so long that some have forgotten that they can end.

     

    Middle and longer-run, for sure there has to be some good biz fundamental progress to keep this stk rising. 999 out doing its thing in the yard. Some PC contract wins. More ePower progress. etc.
    3 Apr, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    re: "numerous potential mega mkts." I'm not sure which markets qualify as "mega" but I still maintain it will take all markets combined just to stay viable--at least for the next year or three.

     

    Take NSC for example: even if they go all-out on electrification and start building a new yard switcher or OTR hybrid every single month, that's only about 10,000 batteries per year and around $3M gross revenue. Axion needs to be selling that much every quarter to get near a profitable state. And NSC is still years from that sort of production.

     

    ePower is a potential "mega," but it is a new technology with a lot of bugs to get worked out and a lot of safety and reliability testing needed before we hit that 1.5% market penetration that TG talked about. I figure two years out for ePower, and I know JP will argue with me, but I like my error to be on the conservative side, and it is already taking longer than the predictions he was making at the start of the year (not being critical, as these things take time, which is my point, I think).

     

    So, I'm sticking with my thesis that it is Power Cubes that will get the ball rolling. They may be able to sell quite a few before the FR market gets saturated and the bubble bursts, but by then the other markets will be coming to fruition.
    3 Apr, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    ngs, I agree with you regarding the first mkt to produce large sales---PC. But, the stk price of early commercialization companies like Axion trade off of expected future sales way more than they do actual sales. In fact, almost entirely in Axion's case, as they only just back in December booked their first non-test PbC revenues.

     

    Sorry for stating what every investor in early-stage companies already knows, but clear to me some folks here have forgotten a bit. Understandable, with the years of beat-down. I only recently re-emerged from the basement myself.
    3 Apr, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    @tripleblack: Your above post basically outlines what I meant when I made my "Norfolk Southern and Hell or High Water" comment.

     

    You just explained it better than I could! ;-)
    3 Apr, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    To tie a ribbon on this thread I came up with this pithy response:

     

    Although PC sales will likely provide the "meat and potatoes" for the longer term, NS is what provides "validity" near-term to Axion.

     

    I just want to see that darn train moving around...
    3 Apr, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Occam,
    That's because until the train goes down the track or a class 8 truck goes down the highway, as working units, we simply don't have proof that the product works in the real world.
    This is what makes it a dicey investment, even today.
    3 Apr, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, Correct. Less of a risk because of the "Testing from Hell", as IIRC John puts it, but not a sure thing for sure. After all, isn't this why they do testing in the field? And the various applications retain the tag "Prototype" or some other industry term until these tests pass. Not, as Ford puts it "Job #1".
    3 Apr, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,

     

    I don't think the risk is not that the loco or truck moves or not. I have no doubt there is a basic level of functionality in those projects. We have zero knowledge so far of usability and effectiveness.

     

    Does it have a useful operating life of thousands of hours? Is it reliable, or subject to breakdowns or excessive maintenance? Is it actually cost-effective, and give a return to the users?

     

    The question is not "does it work in the real world", but does it actually work reliably for a long, economic time in the real world.

     

    We just do not know yet.
    4 Apr, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    I get concerned when it takes so very long to complete. While I understand nothing is as easy as it seems at first blush, extensive vague delays cast doubts.
    I want to believe but, is it wise to?

     

    Nobody "owes" us minute by minute updates but things like reporting the racking issues, the weather issues and tuning issues go a long way to soothe concerns.
    4 Apr, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    "Something like 30mil shares at 35 cents seems very doable to me. I think it will be much better than that, though."

     

    Mr. I > I appreciate your optimism. My own optimistic thinking reminds me that the anticipated Q4 need for new capital is based on no new revenues (I think). Seems any new revenues before then would push the Q4 timeline out further. Even a few weeks or months could significantly affect the provisions of the next capital raise.
    4 Apr, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    No disagreement from me. I like your definition a lot better than mine. I meant economically viable units.
    4 Apr, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if this has been posted. If anybody has access to this report, it will be interesting to see what the report said about AXPW. At least we are listed amount the majors.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oz0cVQ

     

    "The major market for the supercapacitor lies in the developed economies, such as North America. Europe and APACare also penetrating very fast in the ecosystem. Some of the major players in this supercapacitor market include: Maxwell Technologies Inc. (U.S.), Nippon electrical Co. (Japan), Nesscap Co. Ltd. (Korea), Cap-XX (Australia), Axion Power International, Inc. (U.S.), Panasonic Electronic Devices Co. Ltd. (Japan), and so on."

     

    "Company Profiles - Avx Corporation - Axion Power International, Incorporation - Blueshift Pdx - Bombardier, Inc. - Cap-Xx - Elna Co, Ltd. - Fdk Corporation - Graphene Laboratories Inc. - Maxwell Technologies Inc. - Nesscap Co. Ltd. - Optixtal, Inc. - Panasonic Corporation - Skeleton Techno Visit "
    4 Apr, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2557) | Send Message
     
    While I share the cautious enthusiasm of the board, I could also build a bear case.

     

    We have heard the song and dance of something by the next CC since August, NS is also on record as saying it would have the 999 in action by the end of the year, and we also thought the first ePower unit would be in a fleet's hands by April (could still happen during April).

     

    Point being, there is still the very real possibility that everything continues to get pushed out and July rolls around with nothing having occurred and the reality of a new financing sets in.

     

    Hopefully that will not happen, but it's possible given how quickly things occur around here.
    2 Apr, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    For sure.

     

    Plenty of good and bad remaining. I read the $36mil mkt cap as saying that few investors think this isn't going to suck. Which I like, because I'm adding. If all the good I see was fully factored in, we'd be a lot higher already and most of the opportunity would already be gone.
    2 Apr, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8848) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Been a long time since the wet rag was passed to new ownership. You and APM are in the running for the honor for your grounded reality check comments.

     

    I also think we have a bridge to build in little time before the next raise. I hope our newly found fame in a hot sector gives us flight before a hard negotiations commence.

     

    Axion will retain the "Flying Fickle Finger of Fate" award.

     

    For those blessed enough not to know.

     

    http://bit.ly/1edLTMz

     

    Actually, and I might be confused, I think the Axion trophy has the wings on a different finger? Let's hope we get the winged thumbs up award soon!
    2 Apr, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> --- "July rolls around..."

     

    I hear you. That's why I was commenting only on the near-term, which I defined for myself as the next 2-3 months. If things continue to stagnant into June, I would view things entirely differently.

     

    I have it in mind, apparently similar to Mayascribe, that come June, I will seriously consider selling out if we're languishing around the current pps with no sales announcements or other significant news. But also like Maya and others, I'm pretty upbeat about the near-term prospects.
    2 Apr, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> Indeed the bear case is alive and well. Spirits are up in part because TG strongly implied that within 44 days good news of sales are highly likely. As usual his verbage is highly couched and merely suggestive (the 7-8 sales in the bag that he would love, etc.).

     

    Might I remind us that last November spirits were up here and there was buzz about TG saying of sales, "It won't be 6 months." Well, once again he is wrong. Obviously now it +will+ be 6 months from November or darn close to it for even one sale announcement.
    3 Apr, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    "Eventually we would have to part ways in that tolling arrangement because there just isn’t enough room that there is not enough people, there is not enough dry charge availability to both." - TG

     

    Many are assuming this means that the toll contract is being pulled early. What if "there just isn’t enough room" "to both" is the actual situation? If this is due to the elusive "substantial sales" being eminent?
    2 Apr, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    85% of the Axion sales ($8.5 Million) are the toll contract. If Axion cuts that to 50% of sales it is an increase of 14,150 PbCs at approximately $300 apiece. Now that may seem like one or two substantial orders but it isn't really all that unlikely for the entire fiscal year.

     

    Unless my math is wrong, which has happened before.
    2 Apr, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    <<<<Many are assuming this means that the toll contract is being pulled early. What if "there just isn’t enough room" "to both" is the actual situation? If this is due to the elusive "substantial sales" being eminent?>>>

     

    @Greentougue: That was my assessment too. If Axion is preparing for the *commercialization* phase with the "steep sales ramp" that Mr. Granville alluded to in that obscure interview at the beginning of the year (remember that one?)... then it'd all make sense.
    3 Apr, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    On Monday I welcomed my baby daughter into this world. I'd be grateful if I could have the highlights of what I missed from the CC and 10K. Thanks.
    2 Apr, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    congratulations, ranma!
    2 Apr, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Congrats!!
    2 Apr, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic, Ranma! Congratulations! I wish I could give you 1000 likes.
    2 Apr, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Ranma!

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Ranma. They grow up quickly. My daughter is 21.
    You have probably read by now, but the two biggest positives for me were the updates on NS 999 and the PC. NSC ordered chargers to apparently recharge the batteries for installation in NS 999. It should be ready by the end of the 2nd quarter. Recent posts confirm that the NS 999 is back in the shop. The PC update gave us an indication that the PCs are much larger than previously expected and several may be near orders. The reaction on the concentrators has been largely positive with a few posters warning of a potential bear market.
    3 Apr, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Congrats Ranma!

     

    Jveal gave an excellent summary of the highlights.
    3 Apr, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1033) | Send Message
     
    Welcome to the baby and congrats to the parents !
    3 Apr, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,
    Congratulations on your daughter!
    Highlights from the CC...Axion is still alive and will have more to say in 44 days.
    So go back to taking care of your daughter and your wife and get as many naps in as you can in the next few weeks. You are going to need them. ;-)
    3 Apr, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1417) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Ranma-
    3 Apr, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Thanks everyone. Wish I could join you all in the fun.
    4 Apr, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Anybody see the new addition of the movie "The War Of The Worlds?" Did you see that huge machine sucking up the entire green landscape like a monstrous combine?

     

    That's akin to what happened with the more nifty Axionistas before and during the CC. And what's been happening ever since the PIPE deal, even at prices higher than today's close, many months ago.

     

    For those who've written that the share price will drop back to 10 cents...well, it sure does appear that if any 15.xx cent shares ever happen again in the next five months, they will get sucked up as fast as they appear, just as they were yesterday. Gave me a lot of confidence to buy more shares in one day, that being today, than I have since I sold a year ago.

     

    For over the past five years or so, I have never before seen a time when it's actually safe to buy some AXPW. Especially shares for trading.

     

    I do expect the price to wallow for a while in a Mexican standoff phase, or bumper car phase. But if by chance others see things as I do, we might also see a squeeze upward pretty darn soon. The train hasn't left the station yet, but "all aboard" is most certainly being yelled by the conductor right now.

     

    My broker today suggested that when the 999 rolls out, it might garner national media attention. Ribbon cutting. Politicians gladhanding. Jobs! Something new and green! Something fun and disruptive and is very easy for the media to comprehend. Hey...it's electric! Not belching pollutants into the air. A feel good story all the way around.

     

    Charts say if we push north of 20 cents, that the chase will be on.

     

    2 Apr, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I need 2 days for funds to clear so I can flipas needed intraday. I hope your right about bumper car phase.
    2 Apr, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    One cc item that was huge for me is getting no mention, so I'll post on it: TG for the first time indicated he wishes to avoid another "convertible financing" deal. Thank heavens.

     

    Until yesterday we actually had no official word from Axion suggesting or acknowledging that the 2013 PIPE was bad for the company. I believe when the PIPE was announced last May TG actually said he was "pleased" to announce it, so I think he has learned something from the electric fence.

     

    Now we can only hope that Axion is more savvy than in the past at lining up new investors for Q4 and that it's a top priority now. I wish the question were asked at the cc how high a priority it is now.
    2 Apr, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    RA, it may be in our best interest to ask in 43 days.
    2 Apr, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    RA, TG "wished to avoid a convertible financing deal" last time around, but look where we ended up when he had no luck finding a strategic investor at acceptable terms. Let's hope for better luck this time. I am encouraged by the fact that the newest board member seems to have good experience with getting companies prettied up to go-a-courting investors.
    3 Apr, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    The Altoona Works people on Facebook are a friendly and passionate bunch so I thought I'd ask for another confirmation on the NS999: http://on.fb.me/OeBXuV.

     

    - "I hear a rumour that the NS999 is back in the shop - I'm excited! Any idea when we might see it chugging (or humming) out?"
    - "Not a rumor. Perhaps by the end of June."

     

    That's about what I would have expected, though in practice I wouldn't be surprised to see it actually emerge at least 2-3 months later than that. But it's progress!
    3 Apr, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    THanks for the follow-up!
    3 Apr, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    If the end of June is a best case scenario then I'm calling for September. I soooo wish it were sooner.

     

    D
    3 Apr, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Someday... http://bit.ly/1i7uSEE
    4 Apr, 10:39 AM Reply Like