Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (318)
Track new comments
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Patience is finally starting to pay off.
    4 Apr 2014, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Well I hope my patience pays off someday.
    4 Apr 2014, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else notice if you type a message and do a spell check - then add more at bottom of message - even if you hit recheck spell it does not review the latest

     

    Have had a couple of recent longer messages where this has happened to me

     

    Sorry to readers will watch more carefully now
    4 Apr 2014, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    lurking....
    4 Apr 2014, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1081) | Send Message
     
    Off Topic:

     

    This thing just made my day, I hope some of you will enjoy it too http://bit.ly/PwmGXm
    4 Apr 2014, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Nicu I would like to respond with a video I found of what I think might be the NS-999. The work crew seemed pretty excited about its arrival.

     

    http://bit.ly/PwsgJt
    4 Apr 2014, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Nicu, The response of and interaction w/ the young girl at 2:35 min. is priceless! ;-I
    4 Apr 2014, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    I think I found the piper's theme song:
    http://bit.ly/1il2ksF
    4 Apr 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    dlmca, thanks for your comment at the end of concentrator #320
    "I feel one needs to think as an entrepreneur. This is an entrepreneurial story. There is a feeling and confidence one gets as you see the hard data and facts coming together before others believe. It is a wonderful feeling.

     

    That is the feeling I felt from TG in the last CC"

     

    I haven't felt this good about my investment since Valleywood's infamous discussion in concentrator #252, July 2013. If your new here and haven't read it you should, I read it often. I get excited about my prospects every time I read it.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Apr 2014, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2172) | Send Message
     
    I actually get less enthused about Axion when TG reads a prepared script at that awful slow drone of his. So 'excitement' is not quite the word for me. At least when not reading he does speak more normally.
    4 Apr 2014, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    I agree but some might say that is too "personal" or a critique.
    4 Apr 2014, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka, perhaps so, but presentation skills are part of his job function. I am not so critical of his delivery but more so of his timeliness and seemingly too often lack of respect for his audience. This last cc was far better than some in the recent past on the second of what I'll call his weaknesses.
    4 Apr 2014, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    bazoooooka, from my perspective, TG's delivery and timing is pathetic. The guy simply does not know how to sing, dance, read tea leaves, or truly understand what his stock holders want to know that he can actually share. That facet is my greatest single frustration. Axion communication is pathetic.

     

    Luckily, we have a battery. :>)
    4 Apr 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • blauschuh
    , contributor
    Comments (265) | Send Message
     
    I think TG should down a couple of shots before the call.
    4 Apr 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Impromptu poll: Two shots of what?
    5 Apr 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    hopium
    5 Apr 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing a personalized "Thomas 76" will not draw his amore.

     

    http://bit.ly/PxLmix
    5 Apr 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (305) | Send Message
     
    NOT tequila for sure....according to a a recent country song, it tends to make clothes fall off. Don't like that mental picture!!!
    6 Apr 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Tuesday's EOD stuff.

     

    04/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now, needs clean up)
    # Trds: 235, MinTrSz: 23, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol: 2487682, AvTrSz: 10586
    Min. Pr: 0.1503, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1664
    # Buys, Shares: 140 1362288, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1673
    # Sells, Shares: 95 1125394, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1654
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.21:1 (54.76% "buys"), DlyShts 1004392 (40.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 89.25%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1325 vs. $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769 and $0.0767 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1332 vs. $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339 and $0.1354 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -4.27%, 0.39%, -0.48%, 216.18% and 289.09% respectively. Price spread today was 19.76% vs. 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87% and 12.84% on prior days.

     

    There were 2 exceptional trades: one “seq” trade reported of 42.5K at $0.1510 and a single 2.4K share trade of $0.1503. On the first the time stamp is meaningless ... I mention these two trades because they were the only trades below $0.1521 today, affecting a couple of our metrics. If they are excluded the low would have moved -3.12% instead of the -4.27% we got and the spread would be 18.34%, still quite large, instead of the 19.76% we saw.

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 53 of the 235 trades, 22.55%. These 1,586,771 shares were 63.79% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1665. 23 of these trades, 43.40%, were buys ...

     

    The other 182 trades, 77.45% of the day's trades, traded 900,911 shares, 36.21% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1664. 117 trades, 64.29%, were buys ...

     

    Yesterday I noted the top was right in the range of recent prior highs, causing me to adjust my resistance to $0.18, yielding a horizontal resistance. I said if this is correct, we will be consolidating in a sideways trading channel. Well, today topped right at $0.18 and withdrew. This now provides an origin and two exact touches. There's two more that just missed by 1/10th of a penny or less. I think this makes this a pretty solid indication resistance.

     

    This was even with an apparent generally positive, or at least much less negative, initial take on the quarterly report and conference call by the denizens of the concentrator.

     

    I mentioned yesterday the volume was ... Volume took a big jump and VWAP weakened and the high hit the resistance around 14:15 and fell back. Still no sign of strength in upward pressure. But trying to judge anything on the day of the report is risky. As I mentioned to someone in the concentrator, I like to wait a few days and see what sentiment starts to look like then. ...

     

    I mentioned that our traditional late-day weakness seems to be no longer the normal behavior and late-day strength seems the M.O. now. Check the trading breakdown by time – it reinforces that perception today.

     

    The usual is in the blog here. SA's blog stuff is cracked - italics where not desired and such. Will clean up as time permits.
    http://bit.ly/1fRDsaf

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    HTL a little obscure, but BKMM's 23,100 shares on offer at 18.5 just got taken out. Maybe it was a round tripper for their client from yesterday.
    4 Apr 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I'm still seeing 23K @ $0.185 from BKMM on L2 ... OOPS> I see ETRade Pro is "stuck". Time & Sales" shows only the 6K from ARCA. ... No that's gone and BKMM is shown. <*sigh*>

     

    Quick switch L2 ->SPY->AXPW cleans it up.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    HTL, TD Amer's "Trade Architect" platform frequently has latency problems, which is irritating. So when I want to be sure of the bid/ask, for example, I open another window and log into their regular home page feed. Have the same problem and solution when trading. Typical "software as a dis-service" I suppose, lol.
    4 Apr 2014, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yeah, I'm always logged into ETrade's web site, but it's such an aggravation to click research, enter the symbol and wait for the data to load.

     

    Fortunately, clicking the L2 drop-down recent symbol list and selecting SPY, doing it again for AXPW works pretty fast.

     

    Maybe I ought to take advantage of my el cheapo phone's web capability and get an app running that scrolls the b/a continuously.

     

    'Course my wife switched as to AT&T and their signal sucks out where I'm at compared to Verizon. Probably couldn't hold a connection.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    HTL, High Trading Latency. I live only about 10 miles from where some HFT's connect, IIRC. Maybe I can hookup to their hookup.

     

    EDIT: AXPW's ever so quietly having a good day today so far.
    4 Apr 2014, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yeah, looking like yesterday on AXPW action - good buy percentage, 1.58:1 (61.23% "buys") through 12:05.

     

    VWAP $0.1862 vs. yesterday's ending $0.1902.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    HTL, yeah. And where's that golden crossing thingy? 8^P

     

    Would be nice to see some pub on that early next week, as well as a PR about the rechargers for the 999. Maybe NS will/did allow it at their mtg w/ Axion and Penn St this wk.
    4 Apr 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    MrI: You havn't peeked? I said it would cross 4/4. ATM we are at $0.1319 on the 50 and $0.1290 on the 200 day.

     

    Won't have a final until the close though, but I'm confident.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    Thx HTL. Here's to hoping it gets noticed and acted on.
    4 Apr 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    HTL, in the early and mid-1990's, I made a living by very selectively investing in high-potential companies that had stk charts a lot like this one:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1hp9I3N;range=5y

     

    choose the 5 yr view
    4 Apr 2014, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1704) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I: So here's to you making a living (again) of this chart!
    4 Apr 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    OR, thx, and you, too. But please realize, while I took concentrated positions, I expected, and in fact saw, the following results:

     

    Out of any group of 5 such investments, on average:

     

    1 was a home run
    2 were "blah"
    2 were busts

     

    The idea was for the one home run to more than make up for the other four. No guarantee whatsoever, of course.

     

    Anyway, back to AXPW. One of my recent themes is that this ain't your daddy's AXPW anymore. Sentiment was a trailing indicator when we went down and I believe it's also trailing as we've gone up.

     

    It's easy and only natural to get bogged down in the bushes and not realize when the forest has changed. That's one reason why I love seeing new money come in. They don't have the baggage of the past, AND have new time horizons. I believe this blog still has a lot of influence on the newly looking and the lurkers, so I'm doing my part to keep it balanced and open.

     

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
    4 Apr 2014, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yeah, that looks familiar. That spike in 2011(? Maya might remember if it was that one or the 2009 one), IIRC, was the one I got lucky enough to hit twice: once at the end of a move up, bought part way down and sold again somewhere near a second top.

     

    'Course, I wasn't investing in it then.

     

    Am I right to assume that it was, as John has described, many small losses and the big winners made up for them in spades?

     

    HardToLove
    Never mind! Just saw your box score below!
    4 Apr 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    HTL, your assumption was correct. One thing that greatly helped was finding companies with long-term charts like AXPW's. Fallen angels, or at least fallen. But with long basing, which is more or less what we've had, when viewed big-picture, for 6 months or so here even including the recent bounce.

     

    Of course, the other part was that the fundamental outlook had to be really promising, with some big catalysts over the next year or two.
    4 Apr 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, microcap charts can look like that before big runs - but usually those stocks don't have 300 million shares to churn. When you assume double count on the otcbb, we really need to move 600M shares (or about 2.4M a day for 250 trading days in a year) just to get Axion to turn over its entire shares outstanding. I've had 5-10s bagger microcaps before but they "all" had small floats that were turned over in months or less. As an extreme, PLUG turned their entire outstanding in just day(s) and has been doing so for many months now. That's usually what it takes if you want to move in 25%-50% chunks in short periods of time and then rinse/repeat. In our case we need to hope an institution or a huge swarm of momentum trades wants these shares on the "open" market. Then, maybe, if we all hold tight 10M+ share days will really move the needle. The past few weeks have shown that the 1.5 to 2.5M type days don't do too much for Axion pps as it's less than 1 percent of the shares help.

     

    Or maybe I'm wrong and this thing will shoot up 20% on Monday with only slightly above average volume =)
    5 Apr 2014, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2147) | Send Message
     
    Hi BZ,
    Just personal opinion, but I think share price has less to do with turn over than with availability. If a share is wanted but not available, the price goes up to the point that someone is willing to turn some loose.
    5 Apr 2014, 03:59 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    People want shares that can be converted. Axion can't attract larger investors (and lurkers) when it's so hard to get their money back on demand. All else being equal, a uplifting and a stock that does 5M+ a day could do wonders. At some point valuation comes into play but with Axion it is more about liquidity. The best of both worlds is when you can get large investors and traders all moving volume. Right now axion is like a nickel slot, we need to attract some more quarter and dollar players. Late 2010 thru early 2011 that happened and it could again.
    5 Apr 2014, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    The size of the float is nowhere near as important as the stability of the holders. I believe the great bulk of Axions shares are held by people who bought for the long term in spite of a dismal stock chart and are looking for multi bag returns. Very few will sell for les than a double or triple, more will sell when they have five to ten X and some will hold for the big hit.

     

    The key is that thousands of different sellers will make their own decisions and it's highly unlikely that enough holders will clump together at a particular price and force a downdraft.
    5 Apr 2014, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka,
    An investor who employs a buy-and-hold strategy actively selects stocks, but once in a position, is not concerned with short-term price movements and technical indicators.

     

    I am long AXPW.
    5 Apr 2014, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Really John, you are going with size doesn't matter?
    5 Apr 2014, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    I readily acknowledge my shortcomings.
    5 Apr 2014, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps this is applicable to the movement dynamic:

     

    http://bit.ly/1lA6H60
    5 Apr 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, The first time I read this message I liked it, I swear, but I just found on rereading it that I was allowed to vote "Like".

     

    Which reinforces your "tree-forest" point: "Sentiment was a trailing indicator when we went down and I believe it's also trailing as we've gone up."

     

    JP and others have pointed out that there are a lot of long-term shareholders and a lot of them (all of them?) are here, lurkers and otherwise. IMO, what is discussed, the mood here, does make a difference to our collective buy-sell decisions. I also fully subscribe to the various analogies drawn to victims of abuse, more so the longer one has been invested. Many who are deep underwater may yet fear to breathe while newcomers cease the day. Sad, but true.

     

    "This ain't your daddy's AXPW anymore". A bolus of evidence for optimism has been accumulating since mid last year. I'm remembering Tom Konrad's article and the optimism behind his pessimism, for example. I wish I had been quick with the link.

     

    As I have mentioned before, my inability to invest more (lacking the means) combined with my decision to purchase on a regular basis has served me well and may yet serve me dinner.

     

    So, while others are perhaps being rightfully rewarded for their prudent pessimism in the past, i.e., for talking you out of "throwing good money after bad", I hope that those of us who are trying to make a "bull" case can also be heard. Especially by those underwater.
    5 Apr 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    We won't know how I tightly held it is until volume jumps much larger. You may think everyone will hold for multi-baggers but lets see a 50M share week and see what price does?

     

    Are you happy with a stock that takes over a year to turn its outstanding? If everyone here is either a bottom feeder buyer or a long term holder then what takes us higher. Without new blood it will just be Axionistas staring at each other in a tight trading range. There are plenty of undervalued stocks that trade by appointment; I hope Axion never become that way.
    5 Apr 2014, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    EM, in my experience, investments often develop inertia. Usually takes awhile to change directions. Pendulum down to pendulum up.

     

    We had a protracted period of pendulum down, then pendulum sideways-ish, and now a month of pendulum up. That up move has not been trivial---100%, on big volume, despite vocal pessimism here by some of the old guard. That means we have some combo of increased optimism from the other old guardians, new money, and lessened selling. I'm guessing it's all three, and I just don't see it abating for awhile, while we're in this window, for reasons some of us have been mentioning for a bit now. And it's cumulative---the more we go up, the better the next financing is, which everyone knows, so we go up even more.

     

    Not that we've shed the well-known risks and problems, just that we're rebalancing to a, well, more-balanced state.

     

    Regarding the value of this blog, I think it has a huge amt of value. Where else is a prospective investor to go for in-depth due diligence? There are no analysts that cover the stock. The company is on perpetual NDA lockdown. The Yahoo board is a hellhole. Twitter is not effective for storytelling, which is what AXPW is.

     

    For these reasons, I think that over-expression of pessimism, while easily understandable from a gut emotional/venting standpoint, is not in a long's economic self-interest. IOW, shooting one's foot.

     

    Not calling for cheerleading, either. Just a balanced approach that excludes the high degree of redundancy we've seen here at times, especially between news items. It's natural to fill those gaps with one's fear and doubt---we just not only need that here, but it helps repel new money, which is the mother's milk of AXPW's future.
    5 Apr 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Given the recent volatility in the immediately surrounding industries, as represented by CPST, FCEL, HYGS, PLUG, TSLA, SCTY, and MANY others, there is a lot of hot money short-term for the next thing in this space. And also plenty of reasons for AXPW to be attractive for long-term investors.

     

    Without doubt the PIPErs were responsible for a significant portion of the volume increase evident in the chart, but all? I don't believe so. In the past year there have also been have been multiple sales into multiple mega-markets and, other than perhaps Rosewater (a minor market in any case), there have been no outright slap-downs. There has been increased visibility as well. Axion Power is getting mentions, and attentions follow.

     

    I don't believe Axionistas staring each other down into a tight trading range is likely, but we will see.
    5 Apr 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    Axion started out as a by-appointment stock and has developed pretty good liquidity over the last four years, primarily from redistribution of shares from direct investors to the general public. In a perfect world I'd see volume of 2 to 3 million shares per day as goldilocks liquidity.

     

    In the final analysis the optimal turnover rate depends on the nature of the stockholder base. If most holders have long horizons and high upside targets, low turnover is just fine. If most holders have short horizons and low upside targets, then higher liquidity is required.

     

    Ultimately it's all about keeping supply and demand in balance. Too much supply drives prices down as sellers compete for available buyers. Too little supply pulls prices up as buyers compete for available sellers.

     

    As long as Axion had big uglies and PIPErs it was a buyers market. Once the PIPErs are gone it will become a sellers market.
    5 Apr 2014, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    Most of the liquidity has been "clearance aisle" blow outs. Lets see if they can move merchandise without giving it away. I'd take you 2 o 3 millions shares when its a 30 or 40 cents stock but right now it seems we need double that or more.
    5 Apr 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    Liquidity is improving. As long as things continue to head in the right direction, I have a hard time fretting that we're not already there.
    6 Apr 2014, 05:51 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    JP, I have a hard time imagining you fretting, ever.
    6 Apr 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    Should Axion do a reverse split like ZBB did? They seems to have bottomed not long after and now do more volume with the price 5x higher than it did down in the pennies.

     

    Liquidity is a fret right now because the PIPErs are coming otherwise I would be sanguine and wait for million dollar days. Axion can't afford to give away huge chunks of their equity at sub 50M valuation ever again. At some point upside is capped beyond even the most optimistic of eventual outcomes.
    6 Apr 2014, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    ZBB did a reverse split because NYSE rules require a minimum sustained bid price for listed stocks and it was facing a formal delisting if it didn't take that step. Axion does not face that particular threat and I'd be reluctant to advise a reverse split without a compelling reason.
    7 Apr 2014, 04:53 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    especially in the wee small hours of the morning!
    7 Apr 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    How electrodes charge and discharge: Analysis probes charge transfer in porous battery electrodes for first time

     

    http://bit.ly/1fRIovF
    4 Apr 2014, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    There is a Tesla piece on Forbes that mentions AXPW. It was a quote from Wayne Dalhke. I have no idea who he is.

     

    "While Tesla is “just a car manufacturer,” I believe they have the potential to drive change in a number of different arenas because they produce a unique vehicle with unique manufacturing requirements. Some of these companies would be Axion Power (OTCQB:AXPW), First Solar (http://bit.ly/yZ4N23), and GT Advanced Technologies (http://bit.ly/SZj4Y3).

     

    http://onforb.es/1fG0Zht
    4 Apr 2014, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Masi: Golly! If AXPW could benefit from such as TSLA I'd be amazed. Out product doesn't have characteristics stuff like TSLA needs.

     

    Maybe the author just didn't dig that deep - grabbed a "buzzword company" off the shelf?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    Here is the preceding sentence:

     

    "While hope is not a plan, I would like to see Tesla work with other companies in the storage and power production arena to reduce our dependence even further on foreign oil and reduce our emission of greenhouse gasses."

     

    I'll take a mention in a national journal any day, even if it's part of a dream. Just spell our ticker correctly, lol.
    4 Apr 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    The way I figure it, any positive mention of AXPW that is not our own PR is a plus.

     

    It looks like Wayne Dalhke tried to contact JP last year on this site and he is a defense contractor, also made a nice chunk of change on TSLA stock according to that article. I would think that everyone mentioned in that Forbes article will also read that article and they all made close to a half mil. I'm sure they have other contact and so and so forth.
    4 Apr 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    " I don't care what they say about me, just make sure they spell my name right!"

     

    Doesn't work for Axiom err Aquion err Axion very often. :-(
    4 Apr 2014, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    How ironic would it be if the TSLA crowd ended up benefiting one of TSLA's staunchest critics by pushing his share values up to multiples of his cost?

     

    I think that's something I would relish for a long time.

     

    Not sure why though - maybe I perverted or warped in some fashion.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    We have the ability to reduce much more automobile's CO2 emissions then TSLA at a much lower cost, if I remember John's numbers rightly, -10% x 15,000,000 > 100% x 1,000,000 - (CO2 to product electricity).
    But Tesla's charging stations could stand to use a power cube or two, for Frequency regulation income, IMHO.
    4 Apr 2014, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    you are right.
    My daughter had homework last night for an Acrostic Poem,
    http://bit.ly/1mPUI7l
    she wanted to do one for Pony, I should have made her do.
    A
    X
    I
    O
    N
    4 Apr 2014, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    ARGE, You could couple her poem submission with bring a parent to school day and present asymmetric supercapacitors. 8-D

     

    BTW, Thanks for the link to acrostic poem writing. I'd of had to search for it. And I'm glad she didn't have to spend time doing this variant.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oyeypi

     

    http://bit.ly/10a0eHR
    4 Apr 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Well, they will need some fast recharging batteries in that network of charge stations they talk about.
    On the Other Hand, frequency regulation PowerCubes in the area could make a killing compensating for the brownouts of car chargers along the expressway.
    4 Apr 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: "... brownouts"

     

    Great thought! That never crossed my mind!

     

    Al I ever considered is what had been bandied about regarding the cars to grid feed in.

     

    A thought crossing my mind that you caused: evacuation orders issued during the day when all the cars are partially depleted.

     

    What happens next?

     

    <*shudder*>

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    PBC is a great choice for a charging site power buffer. The limit to the number of simultaneous fast charge is how much grid power is available. Adding batteries can have lots of benefits. Car charging may just be another element that makes them economically viable.
    1. Can draw more power than is available from the local grid circuit for short periods, such as charging additional cars.
    2. Power usage stability. The power usage from the grid can be pretty constant, and not full on/off when charging is turned on and off.
    3. Grid frequency regulation, PowerCube is a revenue source.
    4. Add a solar and give people a green feeling.
    4 Apr 2014, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    I'm pretty sure that's why they are putting in smart chargers. They will monitor the grid and control the charge events. Also why they wish to receive power from the battery on occasion as well.
    4 Apr 2014, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Wayne also mentions he is long AXPW in a comment to a grid-power-related article entitled "The Rising Sun On Solar Grid-Tied Energy Storage".
    4 Apr 2014, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    Hmm,

     

    Looks like he noticed Axion last April. At least he won't have been too burned on the pps. I thank him for them mention and I hope he joins are Axionista crew.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gWTgg9
    4 Apr 2014, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Kevin

     

    Thanks for sharing both
    4 Apr 2014, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10329) | Send Message
     
    KIA es no mas:

     

    --The Kia Soul EV is equipped with an advanced power pack featuring lithium-ion polymer battery cells supplied by SK Innovation. The pack, which has a class-leading energy density of 200 Wh/kg, is the result of a three-year joint development program between Kia Motors Corporation and SK Innovation in Korea.

     

    Engineers from Kia have developed the outstanding power pack featuring 192 lithium-ion polimer battery cells in eight modules, delivering a total power output of 27 kWh. The pack incorporates state-of-the-art thermal control technology to maintain individual cells at optimum temperature and structural design to enhance crash worthiness.

     

    Nickel-rich NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) cathode material is used in the mass production of the battery cells for Soul EV. Energy density, which is dependent on cathode capabilities, is a core performance factor deciding EV driving range. By exploiting the class-leading energy density of its battery, the Soul EV offers a driving range of 'around' 200 km on a single charge

     

    Corresponding video:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hd04ao
    4 Apr 2014, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    For EVs, it's all about which li-ion from which supplier.

     

    Hopefully Axion's in the running for the app that appears a fit for the PbC---the hybrid system concept Kia unveiled at the Geneva Auto Show last month.
    4 Apr 2014, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2172) | Send Message
     
    Right Mr. Inv. We know the HEV that was announced March 4 was "lead carbon" not lithium. The Kia "EV" of this article apparently is fully electric or a heavy hybrid while the one unveiled 3/4 with the 48v BSG is a mild or micro hybrid version. We're still in the running.
    4 Apr 2014, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Honestly, I just do not get the idea of using a battery to give the extra boost of a super charger at low speeds, to over come turbo lagging...it just seems that using compressed air would be more efficient: just like in my design in HS. ;-)
    4 Apr 2014, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10329) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: That's what I thought. It appeared KIA was leaning away from lithium, but now they're introducing a lithium vehicle, which appears in the video to perform nicely in artic climes. Lots of neat things going on, too, like how the driver can "tell" the vehicle to keep heating itself while charging, air flow redesigns, "compartmentalized" A/C and heating.

     

    I'll agree with RA, in that we're still in the running, and that maybe Kia will have more than one emerging battery chemistry for its fleet.
    4 Apr 2014, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    Lithium is the only sensible choice if your goal is to substitute a battery for a fuel tank, which is what Kia is doing with the Soul EV. It is not a good choice for the 48-volt micro hybrid architecture they unveiled in Geneva. Different strokes for different folks and different batteries for different drivetrains.
    4 Apr 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone see a price for the pack?
    4 Apr 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Plan on selling one to the Devil?

     

    What's his price these days for the juice in a Soul?
    4 Apr 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (204) | Send Message
     
    EV seems to be making more headway in automotive. In the UK today car sales data showed alternative energy vehicle sales up 63% compared to a year ago to 8500 per month. I think (but am not sure) that these are full electric mostly and exclude hybrids. Can I envisage a London with mostly electric cars in 15-20 years. Probably unless hydrogen catches up. There is plenty of time and space for AXPW to make a contribution to the automotive space, but I see it more of a stop gap than a long term solution. A fully electric London wont need PbC would it?

     

    So when we look at the 10k and we see automotive stalled and powercube, loco and epower coming along nicely then it is not a bad result. I can see a london in 20 years with plenty of powercubes.

     

    Disclaimer. I know less about battery technology that 100% of the members of this board. My opinion is based on my holistic view of how I see the UK populus embracing electric. Please feel free to pooh pooh my comments.
    4 Apr 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2172) | Send Message
     
    ARGE> I think a big part of the appeal of electric power to the BSG is that you can capture and store braking energy and excess ICE energy thus allowing a smaller ICE. Capturing that energy in the form of pressurized air AFAIK is untried and would have a whole new set of obstacles.
    4 Apr 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (204) | Send Message
     
    Slightly off topic I leave you with Colonel Melchett's wise words from Blackadder goes forth..A little something for the weekend.
    "You know, if there's one thing I've learnt from being in the Army, it's never ignore a pooh-pooh. I knew a Major, who got pooh-poohed, made the mistake of ignoring the pooh-pooh. He pooh-poohed it! Fatal error! 'Cos it turned out all along that the soldier who pooh-poohed him had been pooh-poohing a lot of other officers who pooh-poohed their pooh-poohs. In the end, we had to disband the regiment. Morale totally destroyed... by pooh-pooh!"
    4 Apr 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1973) | Send Message
     
    The Soul comes as a normal ICE, hybrid, and EV in 2015. Like how the Prius can either ship as a hybrid or plug-in.
    5 Apr 2014, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    I don't think lead-carbon means carbon additives. I want to think it does, so I don't get too excited and start selling everything to buy more Axion Power, but I can't make that case. It's just not believable. The use of the phrase has been limited. It's one of a very few products, of which the PbC is the best fit. Which one Kia chooses to begin with, it's a good bet (IMO) that there will be a few stops and starts before they finally settle on the PbC. Keepin' my alfalfa dry.

     

    http://bit.ly/xyDpN0
    5 Apr 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Edmund -->> Allow me to both make your day and to ruin your day. The term "lead-carbon" is used in both the generic sense and in reports to include any battery that uses carbonaceous material in the negative electrode. Such makes it next to impossible to know exactly which battery make or variation is being used, or being planned to be used, in the various hybrids that are being announced or written about.

     

    So, the lead-carbon category includes batteries that use a carbon mix or a carbon paste in the negative. Also included would be batteries that divide the negative electrode into one part lead and a separate part that is carbonaceous.

     

    There is one group of lead-carbon battery makers that is doing all that it can to be publicly perceived as making a battery that is not a member of the lead-carbon battery, and that is the UltraBattery makers. The UB is yet one more lead-carbon battery in a growing list of same, but the marketing teams are presenting it as not being a lead-carbon battery at all. They are presenting it as being different than, and far superior to, a lead-carbon battery, when, in reality, it is another lead-carbon battery.
    5 Apr 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    393,

     

    re: "The term "lead-carbon" is used in both the generic sense and in reports to include any battery that uses carbonaceous material in the negative electrode."

     

    I won't try to refute the use of the term in "reports" as there are too many "reports", but I would be happy to receive a link to any reports which use that phrase for carbon-enhanced lead-acid batteries. I found none.

     

    As for its use in a generic sense to refer to batteries other than the PbC and the UB (which is a half-assed lead-carbon battery even if they are afraid or whatever to say so), I have to disagree again. One need only put the phrase "lead-carbon" or "lead carbon" into a Bing and/or Google search to convince themselves of that.

     

    Pastes containing carbon black have been used in lead-acid battery electrodes for many years, but they were never called lead carbon or lead-carbon batteries.

     

    In my opinion, Kia understands batteries well enough not to say lead carbon or lead-carbon, when what they mean is carbon-enhanced lead acid, a phrase which is very common and would certainly do more to hide any supplier/manufacturer.

     

    Below are links to product guides from two manufacturers (Cabot and Timcal) of carbon additives; neither ever refers to the batteries made from their products as "lead-carbon" or "lead carbon":
    http://bit.ly/1h11FyY

     

    http://bit.ly/1dsonhS
    5 Apr 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2172) | Send Message
     
    Edmund> If you feel 100% certain that no PR department or journalist would use the term "lead carbon battery" for anything other than the Axion PbC, then you've outsmarted the market and the thing to do would be to put all your eggs into AXPW. Not being snarky here. I think you make a very good point and if your conviction is very high on this linguistic point it would be a no brainer to load up on AXPW. I can only imagine the effect an announcement of a Kia contract would have on Axion stock.
    5 Apr 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Not to disagree, but I think I would rather read "Lithium is the only sensible choice if your goal is to substitute a battery for a fuel tank" where weight and/or size are limiting.

     

    In the ePower application, size and weight are much less important than they are for automobiles, which as a fleet will continue to be under pressure to downsize.

     

    In the rail application, neither is of significance, except possibly in upgrades of older already ballasted locomotives. The weight of the PbC is by and large welcome, in fact.
    5 Apr 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    In the end, even the acknowledgement that lead-carbon is in fact "lead cathode-carbon anode" will be significant.

     

    And in the event that the UB is chosen by Kia, whether the Furukawa or East Penn version?, I feel certain that the UB vs PbC cage-fight that seems to have been avoided thus far will immediately commence in laboratory and legal venues both.
    5 Apr 2014, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, I guess I'm starting to lean toward the fact that Axion, as an entity in it's current form, is not going to take legal action against the Ultrabattery partners. I do however think that Axion, given what I understand about the performance of the Ultrabattery, should have stepped in and told the various Ultrabattery partners not to sell their battery w/ this diagram. The way the diagram markets the product is a clear infringement of their patent. They should tell them to hang their hat on their own hat rack.

     

    http://bit.ly/1kzhtIn
    5 Apr 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Retired Aviator,

     

    As an analytical chemist at heart, I cannot be 100% certain of anything. I believe what others believe unbelievable, thus the opposite is certainly possible.

     

    As to whether we Axionistas have outsmarted the market, that remains an unresolved matter with 300 million possible outcomes. Not to be snarky - nor sarcastic.

     

    Finally, thanks for the encouragement as, yes, I have been putting my money where I believe it best serves me and mine. Putting over 21% of my discretionary investments into one basket (OTCQB:AXPW) represents three times what is in my next biggest basket. For a guy like me that has always liked hanging out with really old people (one of whom, I shit you not, was actually Mr. Wisdom by name - for whom I ran a pecan-picking and antique shop during my college years), that level of "eggs all in" is just plain tomfoolery.
    5 Apr 2014, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    iidelco,

     

    I hear you.

     

    For me, as long as their not doing so to this point in time does not preclude them from doing so in the future, which seems unreasonable and unjust to me (but then squatters managed to gain certain "rights"), I am OK with their not engaging lawyers (sorry, JP, no insult intended), losing focus or committing capital to such a battle.

     

    Perhaps that question has been asked and answered already?
    5 Apr 2014, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    " I do however think that Axion, given what I understand about the performance of the Ultrabattery, should have stepped in and told the various Ultrabattery partners not to sell their battery w/ this diagram. The way the diagram markets the product is a clear infringement of their patent."

     

    Actually, I think this is the only correct way they "should" market their battery, since it clearly shows that there are two negative electrodes in the Ultrabattery, and so while the carbon electrode will act much like Axion's does, the lead one will act no differently than any other lead negative electrode, and so will sulfate over time.
    5 Apr 2014, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Edmund -->>

     

    The European Advanced lead Acid Battery Consortium
    refers to carbon additives in lead acid batteries as being lead-carbon batteries. The Advanced lead Acid Battery Consortium also refers to Advanced Lead Carbon Batteries as lead carbon batteries. The preface in a recent volume of The Electrochemical Society's Transactions calls batteries with carbon mixes the same as lead carbon batteries. I am sure that you would be already aware of this, but a carbon mix is a variation on an additive. This same preface includes the UB parallel negative electrodes format as a lead carbon battery, as well.

     

    An executive Summary from a very expensive Navigant/Pike research report called lead acid batteries from the 1970s "Advanced lead-Acid Batteries" because they had carbon added to the negative.

     

    I, myself, had this same quandry when I first started looking at buying AXPW. I researched this question at that time because I needed to know for sure just what was meant when the words "Advanced Lead Acid" or "Advanced Lead Carbon" or "Lead Carbon" were being used in articles and press releases. So, at present, the term "lead carbon" is being used to encompass everything from the Axion PbC to the UB.

     

    I was surprised to run across the same confusion in the area supercapacitors and ultracapacitors.
    Wikipedia (and others in the science community) calls supercaps the same as ultracaps, and yet, I can think of two research reports on Li-Ion batteries that in the background sections referred to supercaps and ultracaps as being different.

     

    As to carbon being added to or mixed in with lead acid batteries, I agree, that was started in the 1970s, and was primarily done to extend cycle life. That was well before the days of any form of hybrid vehicle. At that time, with the Environmental movement getting underway, any mention of lead was bad enough. The battery companies were probably well advised to steer clear of any mention of the word "carbon."

     

    Regarding the Kia Soul Concept vehicle, it was most likely carefully decided by Kia's upper management as to how much advance or pre-launch info about it would be released. They would not want to let out any info that would tip their hand on battery choice, let alone much else. We all know that BMW certainly isn't saying anything.

     

    As an aside, I do know of occasions in which one company purposely tied up and clogged up the order book for one of their suppliers just to make it very tough for their competition to get their needed parts from that same supplier.
    6 Apr 2014, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    393,

     

    re': "So, at present, the term "lead carbon" is being used to encompass everything from the Axion PbC to the UB."

     

    I agree with this statement, but there's nothing in between the PbC and the UB. Those are the only two batteries that are ever getting the "lead-carbon battery" label. And the UB often gets many other labels. The Axion PbC is (almost) always referred to as a lead-carbon or lead carbon battery.

     

    I did find that ALABC uses the words rather loosely and in about as many different forms as you could possibly come up with. Why they are being so deliberately mealy-mouthed is as curious as it is obnoxious. Try reading this April 2012 ALABC report: http://bit.ly/1mO2ThE

     

    I also found a 2010 report sponsored by US.DOE involving Sandia, PNNL, et.al. which seems more confused, but does seem to use the lead-carbon appellation for something other than the PbC or the UB, but it also paints the lead-carbon as a high maintenance product:
    http://bit.ly/1mO2VpC

     

    Other than that, I found only a single instance by each of two Chinese suppliers (Alibaba and Chung Pak) where the phrase "lead carbon" was used without meaning reference to the PbC or the UB.

     

    So I stand by my statement: I don't think lead carbon means carbon additives. So I believe Kia's use of the phrase "lead carbon" (or was it lead-carbon?) will prove to mean either the PbC or the UB. And, I'll add, most likely the latter.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    I don't have a dog in this fight. I'm in for the loco first of all, then the Cube and ePower trucks. If some car company wants to use the PbC, I'll be deliriously happy and my shares will undoubtedly be worth more than I ever expected. As it is, I have my hopes set on $1.00, which isn't to say I would sell at $1.00, only that I don't intend to sell before that. I'll buy until I have 100,000 shares or the price goes above $0.40 at which point I won't be able to buy enough shares to move the needle. And I have other eggs to tend to.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Edmund -->>

     

    Good catch....you are right. I meant to write that the PbC is at the top and the UB is next below and the bottom rung is made up of the standard battery carbon additive offerings from companies such as Exide.

     

    Unfortunately, its too late to edit it now. There goes the perfect day, right out the window.

     

    How about this: "So, at present, the term "lead carbon" is being used to encompass the Axion PbC, the UB, and everything else with only a carbon mix or carbon additive."

     

    I did read the ALABC article. To show that Honda was not involved in the ALABC prototype test with the ALABC Honda Civic, the ALABC report on that test states that the Honda Civic that they were using did not have a computer system or BMS installed in it that would have done the proper charging and discharging of the battery in that test. So, we know that Honda was not involved in that ALABC test.

     

    The DOE report says that that report was prepared by an outside company. Somewhat the same thing is likely happening at the ALABC and other places as well. The people that end up writing these reports really are not completely versed on that about which they are writing.

     

    I recall reading an excerpt from a Pike report on microhybrids. That report stated that huge volumes of stop/start vehicles would be sold over the coming years because new batteries were being made with carbon additives, and that these were very good batteries and were perfectly suited to being used in microhybrids. I was glad that I was not the one paying $3,500 for that report.

     

    On page 17-18 of the DOE report from 2010, there is a small section on priorities for research on lead carbon batteries. In that section they set as a priority research on "[developing] natural carbon sources and materials for lead carbon batteries." This is set as a near term priority, that being before 2015. If I am understanding what they mean by natural carbon, then that is encouraging for the PbC. As I understand it, the PbC uses natural carbon.

     

    That DOE report was published in 2010, so it was probably written during late 2009 to early 2010. The
    "secret development and testing" of the PbC with NSC started about that time, and the info on the PbC
    perhaps had not filtered through to all the thousands of employees at the DOE.
    6 Apr 2014, 04:24 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    I think cities with mostly (>50%) electric cars are at least 30 years away, unless the State steps in with their manipulative mandates and screws things up. Which means it might happen in State-dominated countries first, like the rest of the world. Buffet gets that - hence his 10% bid on Byd. Lacking that, the cars they make today are lasting longer, holding value, returning good total cost of ownership. How about hybrids only? That's a much more realistic scenario in the next 15 years; I just talked my son into buying a 2013 Blue Drive Sonata. When my 1997 Mustang no longer rides like a champ, I'll be buying a hybrid. Anything but a Prius, probably a Ford, most likely a Titanium Fusion. But my Mustang still looks new to me. And rides like it.

     

    IMO, as long as there is an ICE on board, there is some probability that a PbC is justifiable. It has a LOT going for it and a big moat.
    6 Apr 2014, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I guess I agree with the marketing aspect but I suspect the actual functionality is more complex than that. Otherwise they wouldn't be crowing about 100000k miles in a hybrid vehicle app.
    7 Apr 2014, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1875) | Send Message
     
    Mayascribe: PbC was never a candidate for the Soul EV.

     

    PbC may be adopted for the mild-hybrid drivetrain, which as yet is just a tech package, and is not associated with any particular model.
    4 Apr 2014, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Closing up at on a down-market day. I like that. Almost sold my alfalfa to pick up those shares at ~0.182.
    4 Apr 2014, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    New Electric Vehicle Enters Race
    by Karl Yiesct

     

    Going to be surprised by the latest entry
    to in the race for an affordable electric car that can
    give the owner almost 200 miles of driving at a cost
    you will find hard to believe.
    Up until now Lithium has been the mainstay, but I would've
    never thought that this much more common element was
    going to take the energy storage business by storm,
    to the point of skeptics and naysayers starting to
    let there criticism fade into the background.
    You have probably head of nano capacitors, well the low-down is that building a car from cheaply sourced...
    http://bit.ly/14LxWVA
    4 Apr 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • blauschuh
    , contributor
    Comments (265) | Send Message
     
    Wow, going to change the industry Lol
    4 Apr 2014, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Yep, easier that an Acrostic poem.
    5 Apr 2014, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    OT: Very good article and analysis by Jason Napodano on another stock I follow, Cytomedix:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Apr 2014, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: You ought to visit the FPA's Swine Flue and Med News concentrator.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    HTL -

     

    If I only had more time. Not sure I could take up another interest and give it due justice to make it worthwhile.
    4 Apr 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (204) | Send Message
     
    Was reviewing the pps chart shortly after Nov 13th when the powercube sale was announced. No upward move at all. Not a sausage. Did we blame PIPE at the time? Assuming upcoming announcement is powercube are we hoping for a better reception this time?
    4 Apr 2014, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, not only did that get "PIPEd", there wasn't a lot of media on it.
    4 Apr 2014, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    Dance
    The conversation around here was "Is this the significant sakes he was talking about?
    Just too small an announcement for people expecting "significant" sales.
    4 Apr 2014, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Dance, I think the magnitude of the sale and the lack of having a partner substantiating a clear path to a large market made the PowerCube sale less effective in supporting Axion's business case. Also the reality of the impact of an ongoing PIPE dump would mute any positive effect on an average positive announcement anyway.
    5 Apr 2014, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    OT (Sorry!)

     

    For my fellow engineers, happy Friday!

     

    http://tinyurl.com/q75...

     

    "What Meetings Feel Like For Engineers"
    4 Apr 2014, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Spot on, itob.

     

    Every time I'm in a client meeting and someone introduces me as 'the expert' I know I'm in trouble.

     

    D
    5 Apr 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (409) | Send Message
     
    As John would say, this will take 10 years to get to commercial production - but is still an interesting breakthrough:

     

    Cut and Past from article ::::::::
    ...............
    Lithium-ion batteries are a popular type of rechargeable battery commonly found in portable electronics and electric or hybrid cars. Traditionally, lithium-ion batteries contain a graphite anode, but silicon has recently emerged as a promising anode substitute because it is the second most abundant element on earth and has a theoretical capacity of 3600 milliamp hours per gram (mAh/g), almost 10 times the capacity of graphite. The capacity of a lithium-ion battery is determined by how many lithium ions can be stored in the cathode and anode. Using silicon in the anode increases the battery's capacity dramatically because one silicon atom can bond up to 3.75 lithium ions, whereas with a graphite anode six carbon atoms are needed for every lithium atom.

     

    The USC Viterbi team developed a cost-effective (and therefore commercially viable) silicon anode with a stable capacity above 1100 mAh/g for extended 600 cycles, making their anode nearly three times more powerful and longer lasting than a typical commercial anode.

     

    :::::::::::

     

    http://bit.ly/1fLImZE
    5 Apr 2014, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    "for extended 600 cycles" ?!?
    5 Apr 2014, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Silicon-based anodes are indeed very early in development, but the promise of increased charge storage of silicon over natural nano-porous carbon is real.

     

    However, the benefits are being wildly overstated; while "one silicon atom" may be able to "bond" with multiple lithium atoms, any anode material will be made from a structured silicon product where 1/2 - 3/4 of that "binding capacity" would be occupied binding to other silicon atoms. Think polysilicon. Think glass. Then, in what I consider an effort to mislead, the comparison of the single lithium atom is made to a structured carbon material.

     

    Also, these lithium-based systems use non-aqueous solvents. So the binding values mentioned do not really apply to the PbC, where the ion (charge) capacity is derived from the ability of the derivatized (chemically oxidized) carbon surfaces to "hold", not "bind", a layer of ions (protons, H+ or H3O+) at their surface. Ed Buiel would undoubtedly be able to give a more rigorous explanation.

     

    I continue to keep an eye on research into commercially viable anode materials for aqueous electrolytes. At this point, we are using the best. Except just maybe for pistachios ;)

     

    IMO, there is nothing to fear from silicon.

     

    There are, however, man-made polymers of carbon with higher binding capacity than activated coconut carbon, but they lack the macro-structure which provides the requisite surface area. And while there are synthetic nano-materials which may exceed the surface area of natural carbons, and could be activated, they are not commercially viable at this time. Or for the foreseeable future, IMO.
    5 Apr 2014, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: We've also seen some articels posted here in the past that discuss physical issues with silicon. It seems that it swells and contracts as charge is accepted or withdrawn and structural deterioration occurs, leading to short life. Some folks are trying to work on that, of course.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2014, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Even lead acid electrode swell and contract. It's a technical problem that can be dealt with, though it typically imposes some limitation. Nothing is perfect. Except my Mom, of course.
    5 Apr 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Obviously that should have been: "Then, in what I consider an effort to mislead, the comparison of the single SILICON atom is made to a structured carbon material."
    5 Apr 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. John had a link to an expert who was comparing different Li-ion battery chemistries a while back. All had graphite anodes. One of the students at the talk asked about silicon anodes and the expert seemed very clear in his belief that it would be more than a decade before anything with silicon would be possible. His read of the research was that no one was close to making anything that could hold up outside the laboratory.
    5 Apr 2014, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Regarding a silicon negative electrode, using silicon instead of graphite is very tempting, but one of the big problems has been the fact the during charge, the silicon can expand by up to 5 times its volume. But, as one electrode expands, the other one will contract. So, if someone can figure out how to accomodate that phenomenon, then that particular problem will have been solved. But the next problem is that on the very first charge of the battery with a silicon negative electrode, a protective layer is formed over the silicon and this layer leads to capacity fade, slows down the charge - discharge rate, and over time, increases resistance within the battery. Very little is known about how or why this protective layer is formed. In some ways this layer is good, and in other ways, this layer is not good.

     

    Graphite has low capacity, but it hardly expands at all. Silicon has ten times the capacity of graphite, but there are those pesky problems of volumetric expansion and layer formation. It is the volumetric expansion that causes the mechanical breakdown of the silicon.

     

    Although, the theoretical capacity is 3,600 mAh/g, the usual amount of capacity that is able to be utilized in any battery chemistry in reality is at best 50%. Also, work has been done using silicon nano-wires, but that work was only able to reduce the mechanical breakdown of the silicon, not eliminate it. So, if this team has been able to solve the volumetric expansion of the silicon electrode, then that really would be a step forward.

     

    However, this experiment would have been done on a small scale, likely at the coin cell level, and whether it can work at larger scales remains to be seen.
    6 Apr 2014, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1121) | Send Message
     
    Dogday> "My major annoyance at this stage, is that TG has not paid the share holders due respect by entering into even a simple or generic explanation as to why he gave away 40 per cent of our company for a small sum or money. I do not want details, but he has to admit that if got himself into a no win situation, that was his fault. As such I want to know that he will not put the company into a similar situation again. He dismissed the mention of the PIPE as if it was a small matter at the cc."
    ---
    Dogday > Thank you for mentioning this, and I can’t tell you how much I agree with you. When TG was asked directly about PIPE financing, he started answering by saying, “I don’t want to say too much...”. And then he didn’t. IMO, the least he could have done was acknowledged what a grave mistake it was.

     

    TG has been described as a survivor, and I've come to believe he is. But IMO, Axion surviving the PIPE debacle wasn’t because of him, but because of the loyal Axionista base that bailed him out. The only credit I could perhaps give TG for things not getting far worse because of the PIPE was his leading many Axionistas to believe significant sales were always right around the corner, influencing many of us to continue holding and buying even more.

     

    Whether he believed his own prognostications or not is immaterial to me at this point (I believe he did). What matters to me is that credit goes where credit is due; with Axionistas. In addition to him acknowledging what a mistake the PIPE deal was, I think it would also be totally appropriate for him to apologize for the whole episode, AND thank his loyal Axionista base for bailing him out. Doing so would go a long way toward him restoring some of his lost credibility.

     

    It seems to me we have a CEO who likes to unduly accentuate potential positives, but does not like to talk about negatives or possible negatives (such as his being far from forthcoming on the tolling contract issue). Thank goodness we have posters like APMarshall, RA, Stefan and others to help us in our continuing efforts to understand the ongoing risk/reward ratio.
    5 Apr 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, if I might attempt a paraphrase: You are saying to the "bears" and "pessimists" and "nay-sayers": "Thanks for keeping me from investing too much money into Axion".

     

    You may live to regret that.

     

    Then you will say you only have yourself to blame.

     

    I absolutely appreciate, highly value, however you want to put it, a balanced discussion of the pros and cons of Axion (and every other company I invest in), but are they presenting a strong argument against the long-term success of Axion? Or against the short-term success? Or just whining out of a lack of patience, or of lost opportunity/time to make money with the cash they have invested in Axion?

     

    ISTM that the value of these bears is greater for shorter-term investors. I have not yet seen an argument which lessens my optimism at the long-term success of the company or my investment.

     

    I am a long-term buyer, I have made the same decision with respect to Axion Power over 20 times: Buy more. I bought on the way down and have already made two purchases on the way up. Every month I buy some. More often if another investment yields some cash. I double my target to 100,000 shares after the PIPE hit me over the head; I still need 28K.

     

    The PIPE didn't actually hit me over the head; though the fact that I feel I need to mention that is somewhat disturbing, now that I think about it.
    5 Apr 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    EM,

     

    That's a real high class problem if one worries about missed profits. I'm sure many here think that way about ZBB or PLUG when they think back on how those were mentioned on these boards.

     

    But there are others who went too big into Axion and have lost a ton. I would say that is whole different type of "regret", even life changing for a few I know of. I agree with Wayne that bear posts at least allow people to examine their own conviction and investment level.

     

    >>>
    "Thanks for keeping me from investing too much money into Axion". You may live to regret that.
    5 Apr 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1121) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, if I might attempt a paraphrase: You are saying to the "bears" and "pessimists" and "nay-sayers": "Thanks for keeping me from investing too much money into Axion".
    --
    Edmund> I wasn’t sure whether to even reply to your post, because virtually all of your assumptions about my post are so inaccurate, I hardly know where to start. I will reply however to clarify at least one important point; I don’t consider APMarshall, RA, Stefan, and others I referred to as bears, or pessimists, or short-term traders at the expense of long-term investing. I consider them to be highly knowledgeable, quite generous with the energy the put into posting insightful perspectives, and from everything I can gather, are long-term optimists. Why you would suggest otherwise is puzzling to me.

     

    I thought the focus of my post would be clear when I quoted Dogday, and some of the spot on comments he made about some concerns he had about TG (even though he seems to be as optimistic as anybody on this board). I thought his comments were important because ISTM most of the concerns (pessimism as some refer to others voicing their concerns and/or frustrations) that are expressed on this board revolve around TG and his track record.

     

    If he would just step up to the plate, as Dogday seemed to be suggesting, and take greater responsibility for his miscues, I believe it could go a long way toward him restoring some of his credibility, and lower some of the ongoing concerns some Axionistas have about him. --- I also wanted to make the point that I believe Axionistas have done more than their part to support this company and this management team despite some of the disdain they’ve been shown in the past.

     

    BTW, your inference that I was somehow thanking others for keeping me from investing too much money into Axion strikes me as a pretty outlandish remark. I would respectfully request that you not attempt to paraphrase me again in such a manner. If you would like clarification on something I’ve written, then just ask.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Roger that, Wayne.

     

    re': "Thank goodness we have posters like APMarshall, RA, Stefan and others to help us in our continuing efforts to understand the ongoing risk/reward ratio."

     

    So, who's "we", Tonto? (That's from a very funny old joke)

     

    I didn't think my paraphrase was so off the wall. Still don't, but hey, you've made yourself clear now.

     

    I don't have any problem with TG. I like the guy and I think he's doing a fine job.
    6 Apr 2014, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Today marks my 2-month anniversary of entering the world of equity investing. Young and unstudied, I've had an inevitable short-term focus despite knowing quite well the folly of such a perspective. I watch the prices far too closely, sometimes from opening to closing bell. I read and read (sometimes in good places, like here, other times in utterly awful places, like StockTwits). I fiddle with buying and selling, often with limited results; I could have achieved almost the same results with 95% fewer trades. No real regrets, as a new student of this game.

     

    Problem is, I already have a job, and a wife, and two children, and I live in Japan so opening bell to closing bell means 10:30pm to 5:00am. This weekend, inevitably, I became physically ill. How could I not with 3 hours sleep a day? Vomiting into the toilet at 2A.M. is never pleasant, but it felt much more dreadful to be doing so knowing that it was self-inflicted. Such is my personality type with most new hobbies; consume them whole, then expunge them half-digested.

     

    For my health I obviously need to extricate myself somewhat. At least allow myself to sleep at night. Less reading; make my choices; I have too little knowledge but enough to justify decisions. I looked at all my investments and judged which ones I have the most confidence in, and sold the rest. Really only 3 survivors after that: KNDI, ROX and AXPW. Rocky choices that my economist brother would frown upon but, in my weeks of furious study, the ones I think most likely to either pay off big or, failing that, not wipe me out.

     

    And, more importantly, all *long-term*. Yes, I'd forgotten, that was the point of this post. I need to get my eyes off the scoreboard and back on the game; that does not require my hourly, or daily, or even weekly attention. I'm not selling Axion or leaving the APC, no way... but may I survive without refreshing the page all night from now on. It's cherry-blossom season and the sun is apparently shining tomorrow, but I hadn't remembered it until now.

     

    If I may hack an old quote from a Valleywood post from last Christmas - it felt serendipidous despite the obviously optimistic mood we have now: "I am confused over what I am interpreting as unbridled pessimism on the board. My stars but we seem to be unreasonably negative ! ... Today is one of my happiest days of the year. Beginning this afternoon at about four o'clock, the days begin to get longer. More sun. More smiles. Particularly mine. Yours too?"

     

    Well, this was supposed to segue into an informational tidbit of practical worth to readers, but it all got a bit candid so I might just start a new post. It's the weekend so please forgive me.
    5 Apr 2014, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    Good luck with your investing, Sohkubo.
    6 Apr 2014, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Okay, before I became self-consumed in my last post, I wanted to post this quote I transcribed from the Norfolk Southern session of the J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference from March this year. (Not recommended for entertainment, but at http://bit.ly/1lA1tqW if you REALLY want it).

     

    --------------
    Analyst: "Relative to the Tier 4 requirement in 2015, have you pre-ordered locomotives, and would you say you're going into that with excess capacity? Or, do you assume that you'll have a similar locomotive buy in '15 and '16 to what you've had in the last several [indiscernable... years]?"

     

    Jim Squires (President of NS): "Right now we're actually not planning on being in the market for new locomotives in '15 or '16, so our strategy has been to front-load power, and to sit it out until the Tier 4 technology... Tier 4 product... settles down. You know, initially one of the issues with the new generation of locomotives is reliability, and we like to let that settle out a bit, so we'll... now, that's not irrevocable, we could change course and decide to buy more power if demand were to spike, or the locomotive were to prove reliable right out of the gate. It'll also be more expensive, so that's a factor. Our basic strategy on power has been: front load, sit it out for a few years and then we'll see where we are."
    --------------

     

    They're really talking here (I think) about diesel locomotives that meet the 2015 emission targets (Tier 4), probably quite unrelated to the ongoing alternative energy projects. So why do I quote this?

     

    Mostly I just wanted to understand somewhat the perspective of a $30 billion company like Norfolk Southern, and I feel this quote sums it up pretty well. On this board we're a fairly impatient bunch, but they're a huge and a careful company, so timeframes of years rather than weeks or months makes complete sense. To quote Valleywood yet again - in fact, from his very first post on the board: "Things simply do not progress in a straight line, nor do they accelerate quickly out the gate. Then there's the fact that they despise mistakes. More delay... [b]ut when/if they move they move very powerfully."

     

    When I was first reading all the APCs I felt the same frustration as many, that Axion didn't seem to be going after or getting anywhere with NS or BMW or anyone else. The PowerCubes didn't interest me at all. ePower interested me somewhat, though obviously still somewhat prototypical. But given the relative timeframes I'm now in agreeance with TG and other members of this board on the prospects to focus on in order of priority: PowerCubes, then ePower, then Norfolk Southern, then auto. The last two may be elephants in many people's minds, but boy have they been, and will continue to be, slooow!
    5 Apr 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Sohkubo,

     

    Thank you for your well written posts, much appreciated.

     

    Now get some sleep! ;-))

     

    RBrun357
    6 Apr 2014, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1207) | Send Message
     
    when i traded Japanese markets i worked a 2 day on one day off schedule to catch up on sleep.
    6 Apr 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Note the comment concerning long string balance.

     

    "...In at least one embodiment..."

     

    Not a few, not a couple, but at least one. It's impossible for these guys to give credit where it's due because of the tie to group responsibility.

     

    Global Warming and ‘Lead-Carbon’ Batteries

     

    "Batteries based on lead–acid chemistry are likely to
    remain the lowest cost option for some time to come and to serve as energy-storage systems for both sustainable road transport and the harnessing of renewable energy, provided that they are able to perform the necessary functions for an acceptable life. Despite the antiquity of the system, it has been possible to modify the design of lead–acid batteries in a relatively simple manner to allow them to cope with both challenges. Ironically the key has been to make use of appropriate forms of carbon in the construction of the negative plate. This can be accomplished in several ways so that ‘lead–carbon batteries’ are able to exhibit a high level of
    dynamic harge acceptance and, in at least one embodiment, to maintain the individual cells of a
    long string in balance for a long service life without the need for intrusive battery management.
    Armed with these benefits, lead–carbon batteries can cope well with the high in-rush currents that arise in regenerative braking and during surges of wind energy."

     

    http://bit.ly/QQqVOP
    5 Apr 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Great find.

     

    There is also a book written by the authors (Rand of CSIRO and Moseley of ALABC) due for release 01JUN2014

     

    http://bit.ly/PGbAiC
    5 Apr 2014, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday's EOD stuff.

     

    04/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 133, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 45000, Vol: 1116320, AvTrSz: 8393
    Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1748
    # Buys, Shares: 52 383358, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1773
    # Sells, Shares: 81 732962, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1736
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.34% "buys"), DlyShts 247942 (22.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 33.83%

     

    There's a few things of concern for me today. The first is that in spite of what seems to be a mostly positive take on the quarterly and year end conference call, we still couldn't break $0.18. Then consider that our volume was lower sooner than I would expect if we were getting a “pop” - one day after reporting. The buy percentage dropped from yesterday's 54.8%. The larger trades, 34.82% of day's volume, were decidedly in a profit-taking mode: 83.33% of those trades and 83.45% of the larger trades volume, were sells.

     

    Offering some counter-balance is that the smaller trades were much more balanced – see below.

     

    My last concern is that two consecutive days have had last-minute trades that were all buys and all substantially(?) higher than the trading range just prior to those trades. In each case they moved the closing price higher than it would otherwise have been. In dollar terms they were all small and reminiscent of behavior in the past that I felt were attempts to manipulate the market. In this case, today a close lower was converted to a close higher.

     

    There were 5 pre-market trades for 30K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that...

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0819 vs. $0.0816 (corrected here and in yesterday's erroneous $0.1325 post), $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773 and $0.0769 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1399 vs. $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363 and $0.1339 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 13.11%, 0.00%, 5.04%, -55.13% and -75.31% respectively. Price spread today was 5.88% vs. 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06% and 4.87% on prior days.

     

    There were two “last minute” trades that raised our closing price from what would have been $0.175x, where x is in the range of 0 to 2, to $0.1797 ... it does affect what appears on traditional TA charts and plays into consideration because the closing price affects such as the Bollinger bands and other TA oscillators.

     

    Without them our close would be below the close of 4/1, which were also established by two “last minute” trades of $0.1789 “buys” when the prior price was a sell at $0.1720 for 33K. Just wanted to highlight this activity.

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 18 of the 133 trades, 13.53%. These 388,733 shares were 34.82% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1739. 3 of these trades, 16.67%, were buys ...

     

    The other 115 trades, 86.47% of the day's trades, traded 727,587 shares, 65.18% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1664. 49 trades, 42.61%, were buys and ...

     

    Today topped right at my newly-drawn horizontal resistance of $0.18. We now have an origin and three exact touches. There's two more that just missed by 1/10th of a penny or less. With volume reduced by ~55% but a much higher low, +13%, it's hard to guess if this will hold very much longer. If we included the highs that just missed touching, we've had five tests in twelve days of the resistance. Movement beyond has been rejected each time. From this we know both that it's strong resistance and that there's an upward bias with some staying power.

     

    I wouldn't want to guess, based on this and the traditional oscillators, which way it was going to go next.

     

    This being the day after the quarterly and EOY '13 report and conference call, when we saw generally positive takes in the concentrator, I'm not surprised by the push to resistance again. However I am surprised by the fall in volume appearing so quickly. Maybe it's because folks wanted to take a day and think about it before jumping either way.

     

    I'm still in my “wait a few days and see what sentiment starts to look like” mode. With $0.18 appearing so strongly resistant ...

     

    The newer [inflection point calculation] version's chart pattern, which was suggesting what in the past has been a sideways, mostly, behavior, is now suggesting an upward bias. I'm still waiting to see what develops after the normal “pop” fades into the past, likely in another day or two.

     

    The rest of the usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    At least they are not infringing Axion Patents using "Cabon". :-O <End Snark>

     

    Lead acid battery with titanium core grids and cabon based grids

     

    "The negative plates are carbon based assemblies. Each such assembly has a metal core, preferably a sheet of expanded copper, a corrosion shield sealing the metal core, and an outer layer primarily of activated carbon covering the shield."

     

    http://bit.ly/1kd1kMV
    5 Apr 2014, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    ii, this is just an application, correct? it hasn't been granted?
    5 Apr 2014, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Isthisonebetter, Sorry, If you click on the "Grant" tab you can get the info. on when it was granted.

     

    http://bit.ly/1imkUAw
    5 Apr 2014, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    I think that one draws an infringement suit IFF (a) they figure out how to make a functioning device and (b) they figure out how to manufacture the device in volume at a competitive price and (c) the device survives end user testing and validation and (d) they try to sell the device commercially.

     

    Their patent clearly infringes Axion's but until they try to sell a product that infringes on Axion's patents I don't believe there's a cause of action for "attempted infringement" or even "intent to infringe."
    5 Apr 2014, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    Thanks ii. I first saw this on my cell and didn't attempt to look very closely.
    5 Apr 2014, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    I agree. No damage is really done until they reach commercialization and sell product.
    5 Apr 2014, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    FYI for the other Axion RR tie-in: hehe, i crack my self up.

     

    NEW PROVIDENCE, N.J., April 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- AXION International Holdings, Inc. (OTCQB: AXIH), a leader in recycled plastic and plastic composite technologies used to produce ECOTRAX® rail ties/sleepers and STRUXURE® building products, and a vertically integrated reprocessor and supplier of recycled plastic, has scheduled a conference call for 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (EDT) on Monday, April 7, 2014, to review financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2013.

     

    http://prn.to/1ehZ5Qz
    5 Apr 2014, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Stefan -->> You are correct. The info in the FOI - FRA grant
    application is part of the NSC-Axion historical assemblage.
    Final reports from 2010 and 2011 are included in that material.

     

    My view is that even though those documents are from the past, NSC will most likely continue to research and test other battery chemistries. Such future testing by NSC should not be taken as a pass or failure grade being assigned to the PbC by NSC.

     

    Stefan -->> and HTL-->>

     

    My view in saying that NSC may well still be planning on exploring and testing other battery chemistries is founded in the current landscape of battery research. At the heart of the current landscape is a hesitancy by all to decide too quickly on adopting any particular form of battery chemistry.

     

    For example, there are those in the battery research community that are of the opinion that Li-Ion batteries are not the way to go. Some of these views are based on assessments that lithium resources will not be enough for wide scale adoption of BEVs or Hybrid EVs. Others say that lithium resources are more than sufficient for wide scale adoption of electrically based transportation, but they are of the view that lithium will never be safe enough to use, or cheap enough to use. It is to be noted that whether such assessments can be established to be to true or false will be secondary to the strength and passion with which such assessments are held.

     

    In short, as matters currently stand, the jury is many years away from settling on what to use to energize electric or hybrid vehicles. After all, the quest is really about finding a form of electrical energy for transportation that does what gasoline or diesel can do, but without the environmental impacts and at a far lower price.

     

    From that viewpoint, it is going to be the case that all companies involved in the pursuit of the electrification of any form of transportation will continue to be wary of deciding too quickly on any particular form of battery chemistry.

     

    It would reasonable to apply the same thinking to Elon Musk and Tesla: my guess is that Elon Musk's plans for the intended Giga-factory include a state of the art battery lab that will be researching all types of Metal-Air chemistries, all variations of capacitors, and other types of battery chemistries that do not involve lithium in any way. Although Tesla vehicles currently ship equipped with Li-Ion battery packs, it does not necessarily follow that Elon musk is fully committed to using only Li-Ion for all time. Elon Musk, along with everyone else, will continue the search for the future of battery chemistries.
    5 Apr 2014, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1fPCf6w

     

    Musk is first and foremost building a factory, which requires laser-like focus on supply lines all the way back to ground. Ni, Mn, Co, Li, graphite, all must have predictable supplies. American Manganese is up nearly 200% (thank goodness) since his annoucement, Formation Metals (cobalt) is up big, multiple graphite mines have also moved though to a lesser extent, all on account of Elon's stated intent.

     

    The Tesla battery is a known chemistry for which he needs lower pricing and preferably domestic materials. Engineering the plan requires that everything be established and/or predictable.

     

    Sure he might build a research lab for his gigafactory, but that would be akin to building a doghouse next to a New Castle. (I crack myself up again.)

     

    One oddity I have read about and which may require rethinking on his part is his form factor. Cylindrical cells (he uses essentially AA batteries) have fallen out of favor (or largely been replaced by flat and/or much larger cells), so his factory may have only himself as a customer, which is being panned (that's too strong a word, but whatever) as unwise.

     

    I'm not disagreeing with your assessment in any way, just trying to add that commitment to a chemistry and essentially every other variable is required to enable a factory such as he is preparing to build. A giga-factory requires giga-commitment. Every time he has to idle his factory to refit it to some newly-tweaked chemistry/product would directly impact the bottom line through lost productivity and probably be quite costly in its own right.

     

    Which once again highlights one of the MAJOR advantages of the PbC (and probably the UB as well): Current battery manufacturing facilities can pivot to the PbC with MUCH less capex than a new factory would require. Also recycling facilities can continue to handle the PbC product. There is a lot to be said for the stability and predictability of the PbSO4 battery platform.
    6 Apr 2014, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Edmund -->>

     

    Tesla will have to ensure supplies of aluminum, as well. The Model S uses Li Ni Co Al oxide.

     

    I am thinking of his setting up a GiGa-Lab, or maybe a mini-giga-lab, due to his development work with Panasonic for the Model S chemistry, and his public avowal of capacitors being the future, and not batteries, and his filing last year for a patent application for a dual battery setup for an electric vehicle with one of those batteries being a metal-air variety. These are three areas in which Musk has demonstrated a serious interest. If Musk really wants to become known as "the Leader" in EV tech, he will have to get out front and take charge of EV propulsion systems.

     

    The cylindicral format: yes, that will require some decision making. The first item on his agenda for lowering costs will likely involve dispensing with the cylindrical format. The easiest first step for him to take to reduce pack costs will be to make a lesser number of larger sized cells and modules. A greater number of smaller cells will cost more to make than a smaller number of larger cells. That may be troublesome to do with that format.

     

    Any actual chemistry change-over would be another challenge. But, things may reach a point in ten or twenty years (assuming, but not deciding, that TSLA is still in business then) which may leave him with no choice. (Times were different in the 1920s and 30s, but when Henry Ford switched from the Model T to the Model A, he shut down all vehicle production for over a year in order to make the change over.)

     

    So far, as you point out, the PbSO4 format has served well. The lead acid batteries of today had their start in the early 1800s, and they are still surviving two hundred years later.

     

    BTW, I, too, am cheering on AMY. Nevada Clean Magnesium (NVM) is another interesting play.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    393,
    I stand corrected, the Leaf and Volt use manganese, et.al.; Tesla S uses Al, et.al.

     

    I just ran across that metal-air patent; I have to admit to pretty much enjoying the Tesla simply as a nice-looking car; the gigafactory caught my interest.

     

    Larry Reaugh (AMY) still got his giga-bump. Clever. And he staked some phosphate recently. I lost a lot of money on that beautiful mound of manganese, which has some similarities to the American Vanadium deposit in that both are clean of the usual contaminants.

     

    But I did just pick up 17,000 AMYZF under 0.02. :) yay!

     

    Alas, I only watched NVM. :( sigh.
    6 Apr 2014, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    EM: " Cylindrical cells (he uses essentially AA batteries) have fallen out of favor (or largely been replaced by flat and/or much larger cells)"

     

    A big factor here is wasted space: round forms fit into rectangular packs waste a *lot* of space. An easy increase in available KwH is available by going to form factors that are not cylindrical. I haven't done the math - not that much interest - but those near-triangular areas between lot of small batteries in a pack must be a substantial percentage of available space.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    I am wondering whether the spaces (which might be a concave-sided square or triangle, depending on packing - and for neither of which was I able to find a formal designated name, which I thought odd - how about a "Squave"? Tricurvangle?) between the cells enables liquid coolant passage. I can't afford the time to dig. My shovels are busy - my irons are hot - and I need to do laundry.
    6 Apr 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    EM: "which might be a concave-sided square or triangle".

     

    Yes. I was envisioning a single row in pack - don't know why I didn't consider further. That doubles, inter-row, the wasted space along the edges of the packs when going from a single-file arrangement. Adding more rows doesn't, of course, double total wasted, but each row interface does add twice the wasted space of a pack-edge interface.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2014, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2147) | Send Message
     
    Hi Gang,
    I may have missed the reference, but I think the giga factory would also be for Solar City storage packs and Super Charger storage packs. I don't know of use in rocketry.
    6 Apr 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    >HTL: Re: "AA format" Li-ion cells low packing density.

     

    The flip side is that those spaces between the cylindrical format cells can function as liquid coolant channels to remove heat. High stacking efficiency form factors have a problem with cooling, as has been repeatedly proven in real life applications.

     

    That alone seems a good reason to stay with cylindrical cells, even smaller ones in the AA range. As long as the coolant used is compatible with all exposed materials and not toxic or hugely expensive.
    Musk isn't a fool when it comes to the technology.

     

    Now if he can get the cost down on the ASSEMBLY of thousands of cylindrical cells into a battery........
    6 Apr 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, Regarding cooling, yes there is no replacement for good engineering irrespective of form factor. IIRC one of the reasons Mr. Musk chose the form factor currently utilized in the two series production vehicles he has sold thus far it's because the cell pack was fully scaled due to the electronics industry. There could be other reasons but the scale was one of the principal reasons. If he's going to build a "Gigafactory" it delivers its own scale and this reasoning no longer applies unless there remains some reason in the component supply chain or the machine tool industry. Since Elon is going to copy, to some extent, Ford's River Rouge model not sure much applies at all. It's perhaps clean slate time.

     

    Anyway, he's a great statesman coupled with an obviously well working brain. If anyone can make you believe that bulls%$t promotes growth he's the guy.
    6 Apr 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    I can see SolarCity buying cells from Tesla while it develops a market for stationary products, but I'd imagine that Tesla's needs will always come first when it comes to gigafactory output, which means that SolarCity can never be more than a standby purchaser of surplus. That's not exactly the kind of reliable supply chain one needs to build a sustainable business.

     

    In the final analysis, SolarCity can only buy cells from an affiliate on brother-in-law terms if its market development work isn't successful.
    6 Apr 2014, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Hey, ...billy, do you know if Tesla does use those squaves and/or tricurvangles for coolant passsges?
    6 Apr 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    I thought he chose them "off the shelf" because they were the best available.
    6 Apr 2014, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    EM: IIRC, they were obsolete form factors - 16550(?) which JP mentioned could be had cheap because the supplier had already written down the P & E 100%.

     

    John, did I remember correctly?

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    Panasonic spent $10 billion in 2009 to buy the battery and solar panel unit of Sanyo. Over the last three years they've taken over $6 billion of impairment losses on those facilities because the electronics industry has been moving away from cylindrical cells en masse, leaving a huge capacity glut in its wake. That's the only reason Tesla has low battery costs. The manufacturers figure it's cheaper to sell batteries for paper thin margins than it would be to decommission and repurpose obsolete factories.
    6 Apr 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Normally the Altoonaworks twitter feed is a pretty direct link to their Facebook page postings, but this one was an exception:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mO0Rhr

     

    "Some of our fans will be glad to hear NS 999 is back inside the shop getting upgrades. Here's its hood outside. http://bit.ly/1mO0Rhx
    Reply Retweet Favorite More
    10:20 PM - 3 Apr 2014"

     

    (just in case non-twitter users can't access)

     

    Appears you don't have to be registered to see the pic on twitpic dot com as linked ...
    6 Apr 2014, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Great shot! Thanks!
    6 Apr 2014, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Thanks! It seems like it's been forever waiting to see action in this area.

     

    I share your frustration concerning their time table vs Axion's need for news to keep momentum going into the next need for, what is now again, capital to support operations. Who'da thunk it.
    6 Apr 2014, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    WTB: An important thing? I think the only reason that the hoods are removed would be to install the racking, wiring, and maybe some cooling infrastructure.

     

    All of those should be relatively quick operations *if* the materials and components are now on-site.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I was a little disappointed to see Altoonaworks reply to a previous poster (here) (in a recent APC) that it might take till end of June to finish the NS-999 upgrade. Maybe that's just reasonable whenever a big company says something should be done by the end of the 2nd Quarter.

     

    Wouldn't it be delightful to have NSC exceed our expectations for once????

     

    Anyhow, would love to know how long it will take to "recharge" all the batteries, and just how labor intensive a process it is. Any guesses?

     

    Don't we have a summer intern or two we could send over to help them out?

     

    Or Lordy, how bout some extra credit project for some PSU student? :-)

     

    Seriously, could cutting ??? weeks off that timetable make a difference in our stock price? Could never prove it, but ...

     

    Momentum can be a awful thing to waste. Taken a lonnnnnngass
    (would use a hyphen but Lord knows if SA every figured out their comment deletion due to language policy) time to build any.

     

    APC psychology has improved quite a bit recently, gotta think some pics and maybe even a Youtube video of NS-999 actually switching might draw a few lurkers or "just in timers" our direction.

     

    Unless that/those "big sale(s)" really is here any day now ... and even if they are, a little "piling on" will be quite acceptable :-)
    6 Apr 2014, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    Well, that was a nightime pic Altoonaworks posted of the 999's hood (thx for the mention and links, wtb), which is rare, and some lights are on inside the shop, so here's to hoping NS is working extra hard on the conversion.

     

    I wonder how last week's mtg between Axion, NS and Penn State went. A PR soon would be nice, like about a rechargers order. Gets the word out more broadly and confidently.
    6 Apr 2014, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Just how many 72 volt refresh chargers were being ordered?
    If more than one, why? If there is only a single NS-999, then multiple make no sense to order.
    6 Apr 2014, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue, We don't know the time required to do a recharge or more probable a "refresh" cycle. With 864 batteries to do whatever operation needs to have happen, in conjunction with the schedule NSC has to work with, it might dictate multiple set-ups to get the job done in time to support their plan.
    6 Apr 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    If the overall battery is configured as multiple strings, connected in parallel, one 72V charger can service 6ea-12V batteries at one time in a string. [6x12V=72V] For a 360V string (that voltage is a guess) the charger would need to be attached to 5 places on the string to recharge the 30, 12V batteries in that one string.

     

    Only one electrical connection per string (either end) needs to be removed to isolate the string for this approach.

     

    To use more than one charger on a single string would require the string to be electrically divider into 5 segments. Surely not necessary unless you want to charge all of the batteries of one string at one time. That seems unlikely for maintenance recharge.

     

    But I could be wrong :-)

     

    6 Apr 2014, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, Your post reminded me to check something I was going to check but forgot to. Anyway, Why 72 VDC? I went back to the NSC/Axion joint presentation and looked at the format of their packing. Each slide tray in the rack has 6 batteries. An obvious access point for your electrical break in the string or to do planed maintenance for reconditioning batteries at a sensible level.

     

    Thanks for waking me up!
    6 Apr 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    II
    "6 on a rack"
    Yup I was wondering about that.
    6 Apr 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3249) | Send Message
     
    Umm "end of June" and "funds into the 4th quarter" might be in a race since placements normally go off before a company is on absolute "E".

     

    Maybe TG's sales predictions over the next 30 days will make it all moot. Here's to hoping that his is next conference call is the one where we all say TG "we didn't think you had it in you".
    6 Apr 2014, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    Let's coin the term, "six rack."
    7 Apr 2014, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Mr I,

     

    Gives a whole new meaning to the phrase,

     

    "Nice Rack"!

     

    Both good.
    7 Apr 2014, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2714) | Send Message
     
    I vaguely remember the restorative charge time for the bio-carbon was something like 5 days (or more). It was much, much longer than traditional recharging or equalization charging.

     

    Anybody else have any info or memory? Didn't Dr. Buiel discuss this way back?
    7 Apr 2014, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Apr 2014, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2714) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP
    7 Apr 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30338) | Send Message
     
    I just searched SA for Ed's user name and did a quick scan of his comment archives.

     

    http://bit.ly/12bg3zD
    7 Apr 2014, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2714) | Send Message
     
    I also heard something while I was at Newcastle for the stockholders meeting, during the factory tour. I was hoping someone else would remember.
    7 Apr 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    36 to 48 hours (to get the answer in this comment stream)
    7 Apr 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Apr 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    Pile on, yes, by all means.
    6 Apr 2014, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    EM: "Pile on, yes, "

     

    As opposed to what we've been getting hammered by, "A pylon! NO! NO! NOT AGAIN! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • jmcmean
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Hi, has anyone tried to quantify the revenue opportunities for Axion for 2014, and 2015. Using available data, the rule of thumb for revenues of 1MWh of Power cube is about $1mil, for 1 NS999 is about $400K and for 1 Epower conversion is about $20K.

     

    It doesn't seem like any new NS999 orders are coming soon and Epower will take some time. So it will be Power Cubes for this year, if we are lucky.

     

    If we get 10MWh of PC, so that's $10mil. If tolling drops by half, that's maybe $4mil? So maybe $14mil for this year?

     

    If we use a price-sales multiple of say 10, we get to a $0.70 share price for this year? If we get more visibility in the future, then it could go higher, but below $1 seems what we could be doing for 2014?

     

    Comments welcomed.
    6 Apr 2014, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1e2vujB

     

    Juniata Locomotive Shop: NS recycles locomotives for the long haul.
    At the Juniata locomotive shop in Altoona, Pa., Norfolk Southern regularly recycles locomotives into more efficient machines, benefiting both customers and the environment. NS can strip a locomotive down to the bare frame and completely rebuild it, including the engine, alternator, wiring, cab, trucks, combos and running gear—all in 6.5 days.

     

    6.5 days! I think that's amazing, but then that schedule only applies when everything is known and has been done before.

     

    For the NS999, not so much. I recall User 393's large list of "unknowns" and "undones", like manuals and training. 12 weeks for the NS999 - does that include testing? After which it's anyone guess how long a rebuild would take. More than 6.5 days, less than 12 weeks. One per month?

     

    The GP-38 they rebuilt to make the NS999 is still a common platform. And they have many GP-50s which would seem to be good candidates.

     

    I think additional orders from NSC are likely in the event that the NS999 functions as they hope. I also think they will know whether it does or not in fairly short order. Does anyone recall how long it took the original green goat to get heartburn and keel over?

     

    So it seems likely to me that NSC will place another battery order this year, if not sooner.

     

    6 Apr 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Jmcmean, I just can't build the bridge you are looking to build. Yes we can assume a few more ePower sales and maybe a couple MWH of PowerCube sales. Then we can assign the probability of a OTR loco from NSC which is perhaps twice the sales of the NS 999. After that we have some level of reduction in the toll contract, say 25%, legacy classic sales and prototype sales. After that it's a crap shoot.

     

    Axion remains a story stock but really at a higher level than that. This because the story is real as it relates to the technology even though all aspects haven't been tested to black and white. The risk with Axion remains the time it takes to do all the engineering and testing required to prove that Axion is the best solution for the niche markets it best fits and the mega markets that industry is telling us are coming in the future. Also we can't discount the fact that Axion is not exactly the corporate entity that large industrial concerns are wanting to tie their hitch to.

     

    So while the exercise you suggest might be a fruitful one for long term investors to pick a possible price point 5+ years out. I would suggest that the variables from nearer term possibilities like added business opportunities and the need for capital, with the only real semi liquid assets being stock, will remain the primary drivers in the valuation of the company.

     

    Not however looking to discount the hot sector factor and the possibility of an imbalance given the exit of the multi-year uglies.
    6 Apr 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    ii - I'm in your camp on this one. Unfortunately, at this point there is nothing to model.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how NS is coming along with the new training program that was rumored last year to train engineers on how to operate battery loco's? Would they announce something like this?
    6 Apr 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3031) | Send Message
     
    RB, I'd love to read an update from our commenter...thx in advance.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • blauschuh
    , contributor
    Comments (265) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, Stefan, et al...

     

    you thoughts on the move the stock makes (even if completely irrational)....

     

    If a 2.5MW PC order were to be announced Monday afternoon?

     

    If NS ran testing for 2 months, the PbC works as advertised... and they order batteries for another loco?

     

    If NS ran testing for 2 months, the PbC works as advertised... and they order batteries for 5 more locos?

     

    If 2-3 smaller PC orders are announced over the span of 2 weeks?
    6 Apr 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Blauschuh, Well that would be note worthy. I think that we are entering the other side of the pendulum? It happens here.

     

    This is IMO a wonderful technology. But it remains a...

     

    You'll find a few perspective here to give you advice. Many reasonable ones. Educate yourself and fill in the blanks.
    6 Apr 2014, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    jmcmean: I can pretty much tell you that whenever someone has attempted such a scenario in the past they've proven to be hopelessly optimistic. Mayascribe probably came closest to hitting the mark last September when he was questioning where the revenue will come from to enable Axion to avoid future fund raising. I agreed and still do. So, with that in mind, here's my spin:

     

    ePower:
    2014: $200k (the 10 trucks from the 2013 order)
    2015: $1m
    2016 $5m

     

    NS:
    2014: $1m (OTR prototype)
    2015: $2m
    2016 $10m

     

    Power Cube:
    2014: $2m (at least 1 bySolar-size order per quarter from now on)
    2015: $10m
    2016 $30m

     

    Automotive:
    2014: 0
    2015: 0
    2016: $2m
    2017: $20m

     

    Other:
    2014: 0
    2015: $2m
    2016 $5m

     

    Surprise events:

     

    2014: 50% (likely financing/JV)
    2015: 75%
    2016: 100%

     

    Diluted shares outstanding (year-end)/Market Cap/Share price:

     

    2014: 300m/$60m/$.20
    2015: 350m/$250m/$.71
    2016: 400m/$600m/$1.50

     

    As you can see, I think revenue build is going to be slow until we get to 2016. However, I believe if Axion can achieve these numbers that the stock will achieve significant momentum, particularly in late 2015 when we would start to see the indications of any 2016 revenue ramp. I also am optimistic that Axion will be able to raise money on better terms than the PIPE which is why I have an increase of only 100m shares this summer. Some of that will be warrants but I think the raise will net $15m or so which will be enough for another year given what I think will be an increasing burn rate. In 2015 and 2016 the raises will be much larger as Axion's cash burn further increases (due to growth) but at much, much better valuations.

     

    To me, the upside is the surprise event which I see as a very real possibility. This year, I think that surprise could take the form of a strategic partnership that provides Axion with cash. Given the PIPE disaster, I think Axion will be more flexible on terms with the partner and I think the potential partners will also be more flexible as they see the near-death experience Axion had due to the PIPE. Yes, if Axion folds, the PbC technology will end up in someone else's hands, but there would be delays and certainly uncertainty as to how hard or easy the new owner would be to deal with. Existing and potential partners will want to avoid that.

     

    I also think there will be surprise customers. One example: A year or so ago JP pointed out that the starter batteries UPS or Fedex trucks would be a logical customer for PbC batteries because at every stop the driver has to turn off the engine and restart it. This is very hard on conventional batteries and the frequent changes must be a big maintenance hassle for the companies. If you add any hybridization to these trucks that only makes the economics that much more powerful. Nevertheless, few customers want to be the first and most will wait to see what results happen with the first customers then they'll start their design phase. So, we're talking about a lot of time to build momentum, but fortunately the market will anticipate that to a significant extent.

     

    I don't think this is one of my better posts, but I can say this type of dreaming is fun to do.
    6 Apr 2014, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (305) | Send Message
     
    apm, I like your scenario, however, I think market psychology will propel the stock price faster than you are predicting.
    7 Apr 2014, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    AP, actually I think this is one of your star posts !

     

    Speculation and prediction make for reasoned dreams. Great stuff you posted.
    7 Apr 2014, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
     
    Al, thanks for taking the time. I appreciate your posts too.
    7 Apr 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1123) | Send Message
     
    blauschuh, everything you just listed would amount to selling about 10,000 batteries give or take. That would be great, but keep in mind, Axion needs to get sales up above about 100,000 batteries per year to get near the point of profitability. I think we are a couple of years and at least two cap raises from getting there.
    7 Apr 2014, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • jmcmean
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, APM! Great post. At $1.50 in 2016, the upside for mgmt options and early investors seem rather limited.
    8 Apr 2014, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    It seems management and the early investors are in this for the long, long, long haul if you get my drift. If we are at $1.50 in 2016 I'm sure $5 or $10 by the end of the decade would be a very real possibility.
    9 Apr 2014, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Well this is all turning out as expected. T built just enough RAV4's to meet the Cali mandates at an eye popping price and moved on as expected. Cali. got a few EV's from TSLA but at least T didn't waste resources or technical resources on a platform they regard as not ready for prime time and not directionally where they see the market going.

     

    But to the Teasladors it was Tesla showing T how it's done. They were in the lead and T needed them. lol

     

    Does Tesla Motors Inc. Have Anything Left to Give Toyota?

     

    http://bit.ly/1lIxlwf
    6 Apr 2014, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    CARB ZEV Program Changes; Tesla Takes Largest Hit, Fuel Cell Tech Wins

     

    The ultimate loser for these changes? Tesla Motors

     

    Under the new rules Tesla will only qualify for 4 credits per new Model S, down from as much as 7, thanks to a harder/lower threshold for the rapid-refueling requirement.

     

    The winner? Any fuel cell with 300 miles of range

     

    The ZEV credit maximum raises to 9 credits, provided the vehicle can refuel in 15 minutes and has a range of 300 miles. Naturally this makes players like Toyota and Hyundai very happy. The Hyundai Tucson fuel cell for example, just so happens to have a 300 mile range and can be filled in 10 minutes.

     

    There are tables with incoming incentives and outgoing incentives.
    http://bit.ly/1qduzOS
    6 Apr 2014, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    I should have had quote marks in the above post.
    Much of that is taken directly from insideEVs who deserve the credit. (Which is where the link is to.)
    7 Apr 2014, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Why the spike in Operating Expenses for Research Development from 0 to 2,172?
    A sudden need to tune the PbC for a 48 volt sting?
    6 Apr 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1980) | Send Message
     
    It's actually $2.17M, about the same as last year according to their annual report

     

    According to marketwatch data, http://bit.ly/1dVneut , the 2012 R&D is twice that, in line with the numbers they report for 2009-2011 of about ~4-5M.

     

    THat's a lot of R&D; perhaps someone can help clarify what might be in this budget.

     

    From the report: "As of December 31, 2013 we employed a staff of 83, including a 10 member scientific and engineering team, and 50 people who are involved principally in manufacturing. We are not subject to any collective bargaining agreements, and we believe we have a good relationship with our employees." Those "10 scientists and engineers" have to be doing something!

     

    All that I found from the report: "Research and development expenses (‘R&D”) include expenses to design, develop and test advanced batteries, carbon electrode assemblies and systems for our energy storage products with prospective customers based on our patented lead carbon technology. Also included in R&D are materials consumed in the production of pilot plant production and our engineering activities". Except for that last statement, pretty generic stuff.

     

    Also, "Research and development expenses for the year ended December 31, 2013 were $2.2 million compared to $2.6 million for the same period in 2012, due mainly to a reduction in contract research & development costs." Contract research for whom?

     

    And maybe can someone shed some light on this: "The Company also has generated Canadian tax credits related to research and development activities. "
    6 Apr 2014, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2147) | Send Message
     
    Hi EM,
    JP has mentioned that Axion has been helping with the system at ePower, working with a telecom storage company and then with the latest PC sale we may have had to help develop the control electronics or at least provide individualized specs to make sure the system would operate correctly. Not to mention any work for auto and trains. I am assuming (and we all know what that means) that all this consulting would be written off as R&D.
    6 Apr 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    They are working with the automakers also. Biweekly meetings may have some research needs as well.
    6 Apr 2014, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Jeez, One would think with that low maintenance requirement and a remaining 5 years on the battery warranty these used EVs would be worth far more than NADA thinks they're worth. I guess the guys at NADA just don't get it. <end snark>

     

    Two reasons NADA gave the Nissan LEAF a low value retention score

     

    http://bit.ly/1eiRPUp
    6 Apr 2014, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    McMean

     

    Thanks

     

    These are the type of calculations we need to build and refine as the best way to determine a fair value for our shares

     

    I urge others with the time and talents to contribute to an ongoing refinement of the numbers
    6 Apr 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    SWMBO has decided she must have raised vegetable beds, and I agree. Ground level work is becoming increasingly hard for her, so I'm in the middle of milling lumber sufficient for the beds. Still, though it's incredibly pretty outside it's a bit chilly, so I can sit here for a few minutes and do some arithmetic. Increasing age demands advanced procrastination techniques. :>)

     

    So let's assume NSC decides to build ten locomotives as we like them. To make the math easy I'll stipulate 1,000 PbC batteries per. That's 10,000 batteries. Then they might want to spend some time testing those ten? It could happen.

     

    Moving to ePower, I'll pretend they go with some average configuration of 50 batteries per truck, ( I like easy arithmetic) and that they are splendidly successful by year end. (this one. 2014. (that's right, isn't it? It is 2014, right?) ). Now the above 10,000 batteries equates to roughly 200 trucks. So the question becomes, "Which will happen sooner . . . . NSC building ten locomotives or ePower (IF they are successful soon) building/selling 200 truck overhaul/conversion kits?" My guess? ePower will arrive sooner than Norfolk Southern Railroad.

     

    The island nations? Because the technology is much less complicated supporting PbC than other chemistry candidates and because safety issues are so much farther along, 10,000 batteries sold and installed would be a walk in the park to arrive sooner than the other two previously mentioned.

     

    Autos? They don't make the equation for me. All sizzle, no steak. No contracts we know of. No endorsements the likes of Norfolk Southern. No embrace from the likes of Johnson Controls. Lotsa popcorn but no sausage. They would be nice, but so would be winning Mega-Millions. I won't be banking there either. Life changes, but until today is no longer like yesterday, autos are tarot card candidates.

     

    Unmentioned small markets? Remote signal locations might work. Quick install basketball/tennis courts seem possible. Parking lot installs near colleges & hospitals maybe. If portable electric fences like Polyface Farms advocates continue to gain acceptance, I suppose that might work. I certainly hope we can flesh out a few niche markets soon.

     

    So there you have it.
    1) cubes in front of or behind meters.
    2) ePower
    3) Norfolk Southern

     

    7) Small markets
    8) autos

     

    Meanwhile anticipate dilution, do not sell out, maintain title to the technology, and assume zero debt.

     

    I hear footsteps. It's really sunny outside. It would be wise for me to ensure Her Majesty hears machines running.

     

    Ervy-derchy !
    6 Apr 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message