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  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Wow
    17 Apr, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    growsmart, I "feel" your name. ;)
    17 Apr, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    morning coffee is the best!
    17 Apr, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    04/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 130, MinTrSz: 175, MaxTrSz: 242000, Vol: 1378893, AvTrSz: 10607
    Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1550, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1375
    # Buys, Shares: 66 701417, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1394
    # Sells, Shares: 61 663000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1355
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 14476, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1382
    Buy:Sell 1.06:1 (50.87% "buys"), DlyShts 608718 (44.15%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 91.81%

     

    A cursory look at my traditional TA charts suggests some support may appear in the $0.122-$0.125 range. However, I feel compelled to warn that our long-term behavior suggests these will not hold. As we get nearer to those points we may be able to better assess the chances.

     

    As with yesterday, we had a constant price weakening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time. This appears to be a result of the continued very aggressive behavior on the sell side by those MMs I've mentioned so many times.

     

    ARCA was in pre-market again on both sides with a 5K $0.131 bid and a 4K $0.249 offer. They left the buy side at the open. Their first move on the sell side came at 11:49, later than usual, undercutting the best offer of $0.146 from NITE & WABR with a $0.14 5K share offer. Their behavior today was popping in and out ...

     

    Adding to the distress today was a NITE offer for 486.5K shares at $0.138 that appeared at 13:56:32. The highest trade price subsequent to the entry of that offer was $0.1382 in that same second. From that point forward, $0.138 was it.

     

    I noted yesterday we did not see our buy percentage improve, relative to the prior day, as price weakened. Today we did see the usual behavior as buy percentage improved from 32.2% to 50.9%. I still have concern ...

     

    What I suggested yesterday, still applies I think - regardless of technical items, we've got some more movement down in our near-term future.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1012 vs. $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848 and $0.0831 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1100 vs. $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505 and $0.1522 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -3.70%, -5.49%, -4.70%, 1.59%, 66.59% respectively. Price spread today was 19.23% vs. 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30% and 14.22% on prior days.

     

    The high of the day was one trade at the open of 25K shares for $0.1550. With the next highest price of $0.1460 ...

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 19 of the 130 trades, 14.62%. These 755,750 shares were 54.81% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1372. 6 of these trades ...

     

    The other 111 trades, 85.38% of the day's trades, traded 623,143 shares, 45.19% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1379. 60 trades, 54.05%, were ...

     

    We have the fourth consecutive day of lower highs, lows, VWAPs and closes and volume rose again.

     

    Short percentage behaved as I would expect: as buy percentage moved from ~32% to ~51% the daily short sales percentage moved from ~27% to ~44%.

     

    All the usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Not bad...:)
    17 Apr, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Is it back up the truck time? A few weeks ago, it was assumed that we wouldn't see these prices again, at least not for a long time. That ol' hindsight thing makes me wish I had sold some at the top, to buy it back here. I'm watching and trying to time a bottom to buy some more. I know, fool's errand...trying to time it....but I'm following HTL. He has a pret...tie good track record!!!
    17 Apr, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (717) | Send Message
     
    My truck is waiting for a trailer at the current time.
    17 Apr, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (717) | Send Message
     
    Bright sunny morning to all.
    Bold prediction, AXPW will go over $50 a share without a reverse split by the end of the year...
    going to spend the long weekend rubbing lamps and bottles in antique shops;-)
    17 Apr, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Ummmmm....I could live with that....
    17 Apr, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    What an unusual couple days it has been. I suppose I should have expected it since I bought a large chunk a couple weeks ago at .18xx. I did take advantage of .14 to buy some more, and I'll reserve judgement for possibly buying more if we see .12xx.

     

    While I agree with John that it will probably be interesting once the PIPEers are gone, I'm not convinced it will be epic unless we get news of some sort to coincide with their departure. Just my guess, but I could easily see .20 but not much more without news.

     

    With news this thing could take off like a rocket like it did back in '09. Not that I think we'll see $2+ but I think the chart will be much steeper and taller. There are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen. I have a couple investor friends among them. I keep telling them that once this starts its climb, it will be too late to accumulate a large position at a decent price.

     

    GLTA.

     

    EDIT _ I do wish I had paid more attention to HTL's work. Woulda saved me a lot of money.
    17 Apr, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Ok, after I round out my buy for some more AXPW, and after the PIPErs are gone, what should the price of this stock be? It seems to me that the NSC 999 SHOULD be baked in...but I think most here don't think it is. Same with E-power. So does a rolling e-power truck provide impetus? Power cubes I can see moving the stock, because nobody knows how many, how quick!! I know, if the stock moves up, I won't be selling at .20, .30, .40....That means, if there are a lot of lurkers/potential buyers, a huge shortfall of supply should drive the price up exponentially? whaddayathink?
    17 Apr, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    ePower expects to be rolling by the end of next week with the changed transmission and differential. So we don't have too long to wait.
    17 Apr, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh: No way to know,but I'm suspecting that *some* hesitation in moving up will be seen as the long-time holders that were underwater for so long decide that discretion is the better part of valor for a *portion* of their holdings. Their mindset might be in the "we've seen this movie before" and want to either cut some loses or take some profits.

     

    If a substantial portion act in this way it could offset any groundswell, to some degree, of new participants trying to buy.

     

    We might also find ourselves trapped in some macro view of the space at the time. If it's not really positive, the groundswell might not be all that enthusiastic.

     

    Generally I'm thinking, again, that a grind up (which I do like) could be the most likely result after an initial blip.

     

    As JP has highlighted, the scars of being whipped for so long will take time to disappear.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Apr, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    I don't know that the recent bump in price was ever properly explained, especially in light of the latest ruminations on the PIPErs exit.

     

    Another explanation was the KIA announcement re' lead-carbon, which seems a reach given the vagueness of the term (in the minds of many, though not me personally).

     

    The pps movement also predates any NS 999-related public news, unless we find out that the locomotive was moved into the shop on the particular day the movement started or immediately thereafter.

     

    In light of the past Green Goat failure, I don't think the NS 999 resurrection is a fait accompli in the eyes of many of us and certainly there has been little publicity elsewhere. IMO the pps has yet to respond to the potential. IF the loco proves out and there is another order by NSC, ...who knows where it goes? The locomotive app might be a nice niche if it were only envisioned for yard slugs and switchers, but it isn't hard to see that isn't the case.

     

    One last thing, I think there is quite a bit of crossover between the locomotive app and wind/solar/wave/tidal grid storage apps, such that proof by the former serves the latter. Big DC, big inverters, significant variablility in the flux; also weight is no problem, reliability, durability, flame-free service and low maintenance highly valued.

     

    I don't think the NS value is baked in.
    17 Apr, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    HTL> The big unknown in my mind is the number of lurkers who've been waiting patiently on the sidelines for clear evidence that the daily beatings have stopped. While there's no way to know, I think the number of watchers may be a good deal higher than the number of people who were willing to take the risk of another beating.

     

    Edmund> There was a wide-spread surge in battery stock prices in early March. If you look at CBAK, HPJ, MXWL and ZBB they all jumped for no apparent reason other than possible sympathy with the fuel cell group. If anything, Axion's price increase was far more modest because we had the PIPErs standing by as willing sellers into strength. Those companies have all dropped off a bit from their highs, but momentum in the sector seems to be changing. At present, I'm not sure that anything positive is priced into Axion's stock.
    17 Apr, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    agreed. +13K
    17 Apr, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: There's a possibility the *secondary bump to $0.20 on 4/3 was partly fueled by the "golden cross", which occurred that same day, if we have any momo and/or TA traders/investors participating.

     

    The volume took a big bump up 4/1 and again 4/3.

     

    We just don't know.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    The other AXION Pre-Announces Strong Rev Growth For 1Q 2014; AXIH up nicely early; I'm envisioning Axion-powered locos riding on Axion-recycled tracks.
    17 Apr, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    40 minutes in, 7000 in volume...exactly what I'm looking for.

     

    ~~~Ding, dong, the witch is dead?~~~
    17 Apr, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't jump too early on that thesis because the PIPErs are limited to 15% of daily volume. Until volume grows to a point where they're not engaging in 1,000 share trades it's hardly worth the trouble, which seems to be the biggest reason the price starts strong in the morning but weakens as the day goes on. The witch will die, but I'll not be dancing and singing until I see single digit FINRA short percentages.

     

    Yesterday several of the folks I follow on Facebook liked to this page:

     

    http://on.fb.me/1qOWLIh

     

    If you replace the word Banker with PIPEr, it expresses my feelings perfectly.
    17 Apr, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Then I'll settle for this!

     

    http://bit.ly/1hPzGnn
    17 Apr, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Perfect, absolutely perfect!
    17 Apr, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Short week too.

     

    This is a Friday equivalent.

     

    NITE is (now was) on both sides dominating with a 1/10th spread.

     

    ARCA's in on the offer, so it'll get a little busier.

     

    EDIT: Should have said ARCA moved - they've been there all morning at $0.249.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Maya, what JP mentioned about the daily selling flow is typical. Once the volume picks up, so does the PIPErs selling.

     

    You can even see it already today, since we've had a little volume since you posted. The Four PIPEmen of the Axpocollapse are all lined up on the offer: ARCA is the overall lowest at .133, then ATDF at .1349, then WABR at .137, then NITE at .138. Tellingly and typical, the next MM is much higher, at .155. That is a typical gap from the PIPErs to the other sellers, from my watching Level 2 a lot over the last year.
    17 Apr, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Completely understand the whole premise, Mr I.

     

    Almost worth purchasing live Level II for a month just to watch volume come to a grinding halt, and from there, we'll see HTL's preferred grind up happen.

     

    All signs are these are the last days to buy some cheap shares before the expected late June roll out of the 999. That's a long time for grinding with the pay window devoid of deep pocket sellers.

     

    Maybe today nature is throwing me a sign; not one, but TWO robins were/are simultaneously attacking my study sliding door. I've seen one attack it's own reflection this time of year, but two at one time, right next to each other? Amazing.
    17 Apr, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Just had a hawk plow into my window. Looked out and we was healthy but dazed. We cut down a tree there last year and a few bids have mistaken the reflection for a landing area.

     

    I think I'll transplant a cedar over there to protect them.

     

    Last night heard a very plaintive sound - a lone goose that had lost the flock zoomed by in a high-speed low-level pass honking for his fellows.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    From the "still getting worked out department"

     

    interesting "debate" recently about the Solar City model and those that would copy it.

     

    Take these 2 comments from a this article:

     

    NRG wants to be the Apple of energy, and as big as SolarCity in home solar

     

    by Katie Fehrenbacher MAR. 24, 2014

     

    http://bit.ly/1hPwiZF

     

    NRG has an interesting CEO and seems to be embracing "utility disruption" instead of railing against it. At the very least worth a Google Alert to me ...

     

    Anyway, the 2 comments:

     

    #1: "Ray Boggs
    Tuesday, March 25, 2014

     

    Here’s some bad news for the solar lease and PPA companies. The largest $0 down PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) financing program is ready to launch in California.

     

    Operated under the auspices of the California Statewide Communities Development Authority (CSCDA), the CaliforniaFIRST residential PACE program will launch this summer in 17 California counties and 167 cities, and makes solar projects more affordable and accessible for millions of California homeowners.

     

    Offering no money down financing, tax deductible interest payments and re-payment through one’s property tax bill, this innovation financing program will for the most part, probably put an end to expensive solar lease and PPA financing in the state of California.

     

    The PACE financing mechanism was first pioneered by the City of Berkeley for its residential owners in 2008 and has since spread to over 30 states and hundreds of cities."

     

    #2: "Joe Viny
    Thursday, March 27, 2014

     

    Hey Ray, Residential PACE programs have struggled with mortgage holders not agreeing to the PACE lien. Has this challenge been overcome with the new CA PACE program?"

     

    ======================...

     

    I've seen similar comments recently about the Solar City, et. al. offerings being a poor/terrible deal for homeowners, but maybe it was the same guy! The question of how long there might be restrictions on the easy sale of your house is one I haven't seen talked about much. Getting the system paid off faster via a better deal should be very attractive to a large part of the potential customer base.

     

    Anyway, for those of you who insist that Elon has a permanent government provided silver spoon in some part of his anatomy, you may have one dissenting data point.

     

    And for those of you that hate California, okay, but 1) note the "since spread to over 30 states," 2) we've heard it all before, so at least try to be original, and 3) make sure you haven't been cheering here about California's recent regulation moves in energy storage (which just might lead to a PowerCube proposal or ten [and dare I say sale????] )

     

    ======================...

     

    No idea whether energy storage gets included in any of these PACE programs or not ...
    17 Apr, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    More details, from a more general "PACE" website:

     

    Largest PACE Program in the United States to Launch: Homeowners Across California Can Finance Solar and Efficiency Projects with PACE

     

    Contact: Cliff Staton: (415) 203-2471

     

    March 24, 2014

     

    Renewable Funding will run program providing low-cost, 20-year financing in 17 Counties and 167 Cities this summer

     

    http://bit.ly/1hPARTS

     

    Much more than "just solar" ... water too!

     

    "With California in a severe drought and facing higher energy costs, this is a win-win in the truest sense. Homeowners throughout the state will now have more options to lower their energy and water bills and generate clean energy.”

     

    Under the CaliforniaFIRST program administered by Renewable Funding, homeowners will be able to choose a contractor and install a custom-tailored clean energy project—including the purchase and installation of HVAC systems, solar panels, low-flow toilets, home insulation, windows and roofs. Through PACE, property owners’ repayment is secured through a special tax assessment repaid by the homeowner through the property tax bill over up to 20 years."
    17 Apr, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Note also:

     

    "Earlier this month, California Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. and State Treasurer Bill Lockyer announced key actions to create a PACE mortgage loss reserve program to address concerns raised by mortgage entities. Administered by the California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority (CAEATFA), the loss reserve program will refund mortgage holders from losses associated with a PACE lien on the property."

     

    No idea if it was a good solution, but apparently the concern was heard and addressed ...
    17 Apr, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Just to lay down a marker, so that I can be proven wrong later.....

     

    My expectation is that after PIPE is gone, the price will rise some - but only into the low to mid-20s. All of the people who have been buying a lot in the low teens will not bid up the stock into the 40s and beyond. Volume will just die with a wide bid/ask in the 20s.

     

    When sales start to come in, then the price will move to the 30s and 40s, but remember that at these levels of shares outstanding, 40s means a nearly $100 million market cap. Its very hard to sustain such a market cap while cash burn is happening, unless a path to free cash flow is evident.

     

    Once free cash flow from operations is evident, prices in the $1-$2 is easily doable, but that will depend on how many dilutions happen between now and then.
    17 Apr, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Becker, I agree with your assesment. Now you'll have company if proven wrong. :)

     

    Essential is some kind of sales before the 4th Q in order to secure the best possible additional financing with the least amount of dilution as possible.
    18 Apr, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Interesting trading note - I put in an order at .135, and got a relatively small fill (through CANT) it's still there... now the volumes up, and it'll be interesting to see where it goes the rest of the day.
    17 Apr, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Nothing has changed

     

    Pipers working market to make their quick dollars

     

    Rest of us carry on in the belief that news of significance is coming at some stage

     

    TG and sales team working away at low hanging fruit confirming the other sales are not worth getting too distracted about

     

    Another day closer to news - good or distressing

     

    Probably best to just check in about a month from now

     

    The clock is clicking for many ...and I for one do not believe those on the front lines are sitting idle
    17 Apr, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Lull in trading - two guys are staring each other down across the abyss of 0.137 - 0.140 @5K.

     

    EDIT: A crack in the armor - and one walks away with a smile to finish his lunch.
    17 Apr, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    One just blinked!
    17 Apr, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    ;) and one just winked
    17 Apr, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    And it really was an abyss compared to the $0.0001 spread we've seen battled over in the past many times, including recently.

     

    That 1/100th spread can be the worst - often *extended* periods where both sides are apparently in a hopium-induced coma as there's no Winken, Blinken or Nod observed.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • maplecorner
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    I bought some just before that @ .135, sold the last of my HAL and added to the AXPW. My wife hated that I owned the HAL, and it had doubled in price in just over a year. So here's hoping the Axion doubles or more. I just can't imagine it at this price a year from now unless something major goes wrong.
    17 Apr, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I put in an order @.135 this afternoon, but it didn't fill. Wanted to hit 100K. Oh, well. Maybe tomorrow...
    17 Apr, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, As HTL indicated the market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
    17 Apr, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    quote: I just can't imagine it at this price next year...

     

    Axionistas should have a coat of arms, and that should be in Latin at the bottom
    18 Apr, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Jpau: LoL! Good one. Started my day with a laugh.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    oops!
    18 Apr, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    "Donec pretium at annum non possum"
    18 Apr, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    "Of course, priced at a year I can not" [says Google translate]

     

    What the heck does that mean?
    18 Apr, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I used Google Translate to go in the other direction, so the software obviously is less than perfect.
    18 Apr, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    The motto of Goggle translate should be "Give 'em enough rope, and they'll hang themselves." Works for words and very short simple sentences, sometimes.

     

    All in all, It's horrible. I learned that at Stefan's expense.
    18 Apr, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It probably would have been better if I'd just stuck with French, "Je ne peux pas l'imaginer à ce prix l'année prochaine."
    18 Apr, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    "I can not imagine at that price next year"

     

    Ahhhh.
    18 Apr, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Semper ubi sub ubi.
    18 Apr, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • engindoc
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    At about 11:15 this a.m. (4/17/14) Axion price jumped to .148 but was violently turned back and now, as I write this, the price has settled at .137 . The reason, I think, is that the 20-week exponential moving average is .139 . This is not unique to Axion but almost all stocks behave the same way. A very significant volume will be needed to convincingly jump over the 20-week EMA hurdle. While many seem to blame the pipers and other shady characters, the trading in this stock appears to be very similar to most stocks, when there is no other news to trade on. While the pipers are an easy target, I wonder if the savvy traders on this board are doing what is standard practice among day traders. I certainly don't think the pipers care about moving averages. The enemies, may not be the pipers, but the traders among us.....
    17 Apr, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    traders are not your enemy until they suppress a move up that is triggered by fundamental improvement for the company. see sales, or roll out by Norfolk. until June/ July all i want is big volume to make sure we clear out pipers.
    17 Apr, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. What we need is for the PIPErs to be out so that a news-sparked run is followed by momo-traders.

     

    That said, since we have tracked which MM's the PIPErs use and their tactics, we have a pretty good idea that most of the selling is due to them. That bodes well for a rebound when they are done.
    17 Apr, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Succinct and true, engindoc. Day traders would be all over this stock and it's price level. They add liquidity and price movement but are not interested in the company or product. Ten thousand shares and a penny equal a hundred bucks. Do that a few times a day and you have an income.
    17 Apr, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    1:35 remaining until market close today. Volume of 768k with no "late day weakness" yet that would be suggestive of PIPEr selling. This may bode well for the future. Hopefully they are sold out. So I just upped my sell limit and reduced the order size for my trading shares on hopes of .13 having been a bottom and strength ahead.
    17 Apr, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (946) | Send Message
     
    Just saw a Norfolk Southern Ad and remembered, these guys don't F around.

     

    They considered many battery chemistries for their trains and decided on lead-acid. When lead-acid didn't pan out, they went with lead-acid 2.0 (Axion Power), not Trojan, not JCI's latest patch, not UltraBattery.

     

    The only two industries that Axion doesn't already have a lock on is grid and marine, and is therefore the best chance for new news. Right now we have BMW/Kia? for auto, NSC for rail, Cummins (and ePower) for trucking, MultiLink for UPS. Now we need Hyundai Heavy Industries for marine, and Southern California Edison for grid. Screw significant sales, show me the news!

     

    And while it may pain some to consider partnering with Elon and SolarCity (SCTY) for residential solar/micorgrid, it's the icing on a six layer cake of huge customer accounts.
    17 Apr, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Axion is lead-acid 3.0.

     

    Flooded is 1.0 and flooded with additives is 1.xx

     

    AGM is 2.0 and AGM with additives is 2.xx
    17 Apr, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    "The only two industries that Axion doesn't already have a lock on"

     

    PY, did I miss something?
    17 Apr, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (946) | Send Message
     
    Meaning, grid and marine are the two industries I can't point to and name a global multi-billion dollar interested party.

     

    My point about lead-acid and NSC is that. 1) lead-acid remains the best industrial battery out there.
    2) NSC is not some garage experiment or local politician's green project. They make miracles happen every day with top-notch engineers and they chose Axion Power.
    17 Apr, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    PY - Good points. Sorry for the snarkiness. I am beyond jaded. This pendulum needs to swing the other way.
    17 Apr, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1eZGUPV
    17 Apr, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    "PY, did I miss something?"

     

    Not to pick on you at all, but this quote should show that any design win is not baked into the share price. It's not just auto that's not priced in, but trains, trucks, stationary...
    18 Apr, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1hP8GV0

     

    By the way, for those who have wondered recently whether or not the Axion PowerCube that is currently hooked up in New Castle might be providing useful test data for PbC strings, please note the parenthetical statement in Mr. Granville's comments below and linked above:

     

    "We learned a great deal about this market from our first PowerCube installation here at Axion, which we integrated into the PJM utility network in 2011. PJM is the largest provider of wholesale electricity in North America, providing power to more than 61 million people. **Although the initial focus of this install was not frequency regulation, (it was indeed to provide us with a test bed for string applications and for battery testing with solar products)**, changes initiated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) opened up a new opportunity for our PowerCube technology."
    17 Apr, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    OT: Sadly/Surprisingly, nothing about engines.

     

    April 2014

     

    Rail Industry Trends Article
    Rail technology research shared at AAR's 19th annual review

     

    http://bit.ly/1hQOZMw

     

    Big, varied, interesting problems, e.g.,

     

    "hot-box detector network upgrade so that the devices can be used to measure warm and cold wheels ("Wheel temperature is a more accurate indicator of brake effectiveness than observed piston travel," he said);"
    17 Apr, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    OT: Combined heat and power company Tecogen sets terms for $10.5 million IPO

     

    By Renaissance Capital, April 17, 2014,

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQCMZL

     

    Forbes quick note from (failed/rescinded) attempt back in 2013:

     

    6/08/2013 @ 9:25PM |1,561 views
    Tecogen Takes Cogeneration Public

     

    "Tecogen began in the early 1960s as a research division of Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO -0.34%. Since it was spun off in 2000 as a separate company, Tecogen has shipped roughly 2,000 cogeneration units.

     

    Over the past year, Tecogen booked about $16 million in sales of its core CHP products, which include cogeneration units that supply electricity and hot water, chillers that provide air-conditioning and hot water and high-efficiency water heaters.

     

    Three companies make gas-engine-driven chillers that compete with Tecogen’s products: Trane, a division of Ingersoll-Rand, York, a division of Johnson Controls, and Alturdyne."

     

    No (direct?) mention in that article of local fave Capstone Turbine
    http://bit.ly/1qQCMZN
    17 Apr, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: I suspect it's because (CPST) doens't make those things. It does only the micro-turbines and is used in conjunction with many different combination of those things, as engineered by the project managers.

     

    For micro-turbines, IIRC, Capstone has something like 83% of the market.

     

    I'm suspecting they follow the "do one thing and do it well" mantra now, after some early missteps, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Heading out for a few days. Happy Easter everyone. Enjoy these Easter Bunnies to creep you out while I am away.
    -ngs (elitist)

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQCRMZ
    17 Apr, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    A post market close going into a 3 day weekend SEC filing from Axion:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQFz5d

     

    I never understand these things so I won't say anything. Hopefully, JP will tell us how many shares outstanding we'll have when this is done.
    17 Apr, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line: 221,511,725 shares outstanding.
    17 Apr, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    NGS identified the critical number, 221.5 million shares outstanding at 14-Apr-14. It tells me that we have in fact seen the last of the PIPE share issuances and their remaining inventories are running very low.

     

    The Form 10-K had 205.3 million shares outstanding at 28-Feb-14, so the total issuance for the final two PIPE pre-installment stock issuances on March 1 and April 1 came in at 16.25 million shares. These numbers tie pretty well to my recently revised estimates that 9.3 million shares would be issued in March and 6.7 million would issued in early April.

     

    I didn't previously share my revised conversion workbook because I was gun shy after missing the "Make-Whole" interest provision and predicting PIPE-end a couple months early. Now that I have this one final data point, I think some might be interested.

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQSvbf

     

    I'm really intrigued that the reported FINRA short sales in March and April currently total 16.5 million. If we see very low volume and FINRA short sales plummet, I think we'll know for sure that ZRPSOD is upon us.
    17 Apr, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Is the purpose of the SEC filing basically Axion's legal obligation to say "all the issuances from the 2013 PIPE are done; this is how many shares there are"?
    17 Apr, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The purpose of the filing is to update the old registration statement so that it only applies to the common stock underlying the PIPE warrants.
    17 Apr, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Very helpful to get that 221.5 mil shares O/S number. Thank you, Axion.

     

    JP, I haven't looked at your updated workbook yet, but I ran some numbers to estimate how many shares the PIPErs have left right now. Just another method that reaches the same conclusion as the daily short interest report: the PIPErs are just about out. Since it appears that the main variable left is what percentage of the sell-side volume represents PIPEr sales, I calc'd the percentage that produces zero PIPEr shares left. That number is 83.3%.

     

    IIRC, your prior calc's showed that the PIPErs represented, from their selling day 1 through 1/28/2014, 80-something percent of all selling volume. So if the PIPErs have remained consistent in their selling behavior, the 83.3% needed to produce zero shares left easily passes the sniff test and might really mean they are just about done.

     

    My input:

     

    Shares the PIPErs held at 1/28/2014 per the 2/10/2014 Form S-1, pages 83 and 84: 11.1 million

     

    Shares issued to anyone else from 1/28/2014 thru 4/14/2014: assumed 0

     

    Shares issued to PIPErs from 1/29/2014 through 4/14/2014: 24.9 million (221.5 at 4/14 minus 196.6 at 1/28)

     

    Therefore, total shares the PIPErs had available to sell, from 1/28/2014 thru 4/14/2014: 36.0 million (11.1 + 24.9)

     

    Total shares traded from 1/29/2014 thru 4/17/2014: 86.4 million

     

    Double-count assumption: 50% (note that anything lower helps lower the number of PIPErs' shares remaining)

     

    Therefore, total shares sold: 43.2 million (86.4 * .50)

     

    Percentage that equates the 43.2 mil with the 36.0 mil: 83.3% (43.2 * .833 = 36.0)

     

    If someone wants to review these numbers for relevance, completeness and accuracy, that would be helpful.
    17 Apr, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Your estimates are very close to mine, if not scary close to mine. Let's hope we're both right.
    17 Apr, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    JP> What's the status of the $1 million borrowed from insiders? Have they been paid in shares now or is that to come still?
    17 Apr, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The $1 million in junior notes matures 24 months after the original issue date, or May 7, 2015. While they can be converted earlier, I don't see any particular advantage for Axion to pay the notes early unless it finds itself wallowing in piles of cash.
    18 Apr, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    R good friends from Ecoult/East Penn. Pushing the UB for PSOC. Well it's good for Axion's PbC anyway.

     

    The Importance of Advanced Lead Acid Batteries in Renewable Power Generation

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQQwUb
    17 Apr, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Why is East Penn so invested in the UB? Wouldn't they be just as happy building PbCs seeing as though they licensed the UB patent? I imagine they would be, seeing as though they are helping Axion stay afloat with the toll contract. So what do they like about the UB that the PbC can't give them?
    17 Apr, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    East Penn negotiated a commercialization license from CSIRO. It then accepted a $32.5 million ARRA Grant to build an UB factory. If it doesn't take all reasonable steps to realize the commercial potential of the UB technology, two government agencies might have reasonable grounds for a substantial lawsuit.
    17 Apr, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • jmcmean
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Hi John, I don't get it still. Does it have to be UB, or just advanced lead batteries?

     

    And back to Ranma's question, is there anything we are missing about UB vs. PBC? Is there a disadvantage of PBC that we are not seeing?

     

    Edit: I understand your point now. CSIRO developed the UB, but if there is a clearly superior product in PBC in all counts, I suppose the question why does East Penn still seems to push the UB so actively, is still a valid one.
    17 Apr, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Any time you license a technology from somebody you assume a legal duty to use reasonable commercial efforts to effectively commercialize it. If you don't do that, your licensor can sue for damages. Likewise, the ARRA grant specifically mentioned the Ultrabattery and while Exide was willing to play fast and loose with the DOE, East Penn is far more honest.
    17 Apr, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • jmcmean
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I have a different view based on my experience. Licenses are granted usually based on a some fixed fee and royalty as a percentage of sales paid by the licensee, perhaps with an expected minimal level of sales.

     

    It is seldom typically the case that you have a legal duty to get it to work, unless maybe that is negotiated for some form of exclusivity for the use of the license.

     

    My guess is that perhaps East Penn is seeing something we are not, it could be as simple as the net cost-benefit of PBC is not sufficiently compelling, so they just decide to go with the 'good enough'. Which is my main worry for Axion.

     

    Or maybe it's just me.
    18 Apr, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    The UB link ii just posted may confirm that. Wake up New Castle, the silence is not just deafening it is making people go deaf so they will not be able to hear you again.
    18 Apr, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Axion PbC mentioned on page 140 in this handbook. UB also covered along w/ many other energy storage options.

     

    WECC Variable Generation Planning Reference Book Main

     

    http://bit.ly/1qRdlqV.
    17 Apr, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    page 140 says "Intentionally left blank"
    17 Apr, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power PowerCubeTM C-PbO2 hybrid capacitors, p 118-119

     

    Axion Power also has developed PbC hybrid systems PowerCubeTM for utility-scale energy storage, targeting short-term storage for wind and solar power, with a carbon electrode replacing the negative electrode. These are mobile and can deliver up to 1 MW for 30 minutes, or 100 kW for 10 hours. Over 2,000 charge-discharge cycles at 100 percent DOD have been demonstrated.

     

    The PowerCube battery, in partnership with Viridity Energy, is being integrated as a 100-kW power resource for the PJM regulation market (Axion Power International 2011). Their technology can be scaled in building blocks of 1 MW of power for 30 minutes for PJM applications. It can also provide power quality, back-up power, power smoothing and load leveling, as well as wind and solar energy storage.

     

    For grid utility applications, their storage system can be used for frequency regulation/power smoothing, load shifting, load sharing, peak shaving and solar and wind energy storage. They can build battery packs from 10 kWh to 20 MWh in energy capacity, operating at power levels of 2 kW to 5 MW. They have in their plant a 250-kWh pack that is integrated into the PJM grid – operating at power levels of up to 500 kW. (footnote)

     

    Their storage systems also are used in automotive start-stop applications, with the batteries being tested in BMW automobiles. These also are used in standby power in commercial vehicles and industrial applications such as heavy trucks, fork lifts, oil rigs, residential power packs, and cranes. Auxiliary power requiring heavy-duty cycling also is provided for buses and trucks. The hybrid/electric vehicle locomotive market also is being targeted.

     

    Telephone call with Vani referenced in footnote on 119
    17 Apr, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Looks like an awesome reference! Thanks iindelco!
    17 Apr, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Oops, Sorry Edmund.
    17 Apr, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Very nice reference!
    17 Apr, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Don't mention it, I did the exact same thing a couple of days ago, IIRC. Being human being. dammit. again. sigh.
    17 Apr, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: great find. I really like "Over 2,000 charge-discharge cycles at 100 percent DOD have been demonstrated".

     

    Since the more normal operation would be partial charges and discharges, I wonder how much longer it can *really* go.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Hi Ed:

     

    > {excerpted from my e-mail} [Chris,] My question to you is: Looking at the NSC roster of C-C locos, which
    > units do you think might be most suitable for a similar upgrade, but
    > to be used on the main line in consists, not just in yards?

     

    Either the rebuilt SD40-2 or SD60E units would be my guess. But that's providing they can perfect the basic idea using the 999.

     

    Regards,

     

    Chris

     

    Credit where it's due: Chris Toth is the owner-operator of http://www.nsdash9.com - one of my favorite resources for Norfolk Southern information.

     

    The EMD GP-50s (B-B, 4 powered axles) and SD-50s (C-C, 6 powered axles) were produced after the EMD GP/SD-40-series, the most popular locomotives by EMD, but they proved relatively unreliable. They were also known as "rail-burners" according to some as a result of the difficulty of controlling wheel slippage. The GP/SD-60s were built in the 80s-early90s.

     

    As for the 4-axle GP locos:

     

    NS still has 25 original GP-50s left (after rebuilding 38 from 2004-2007, in a downgrade-upgrade which resulted in them being re-designated GP-38-3s). I think these would be likely targets for battery rebuilds. As would the still-original GP-38s, from the early 70's - they have *350* of these in active service, having rebuilt only 73 from 01/2005 - 06/2007.

     

    All these models are vintage ~1970-1980 and they will need rebuilds fairly soon I would imagine.

     

    GP-60s are thus far untouched.

     

    As for the 6-axle locos:

     

    NS has converted all of its SD-50s into SD-40Es, a sort of downgrade-upgrade; that's ~57 locomotive rebuilds in the last ~5 years - final one delivered in Jan 2014.

     

    SO that leaves the SD40-2s (the popular ones): NS has 378 of these! They were all built in the 1972-1981 era. This includes 80 they have just acquired from Helm Leasing for which "delivery is ongoing". A few have been painted. Otherwise, it seem minor refits for the most part (like adding air-conditioning).

     

    And the SD-60s (built in the 1980s):

     

    This seems to be a current and very active rebuild program, so it may be enlightening. The first SD-60-to-SD60E rebuild was completed 11-2010, the second 03-2011, the third 06-2011, and the fourth 02-2012, but four more completed in 03-2012 (new crews having been trained?). That's the ramp-up if you will. From 04-2012 to 04-2014 (four have been delivered this month), they have completed 58 more rebuilds.

     

    They have 203 more SD-60 rebuilds to go.

     

    Sum it up: 375 4-axle and 581 6-axle locos.

     

    That's a very large herd of potential goats!
    17 Apr, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    It would be really helpful if someone could discern exactly how many batteries were sold to BySolar. Was that ever made public? I can't remember. I guess that's stating the obvious.
    17 Apr, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    "Recently Axion supplied 600 batteries with its Powercube system to Bysolar, for a commercial application, for a food industry business that lost its electricity supply when Hurricane Sandy struck and wants to be prepared should a similar event cut off power in future. Bysolar will install the Powercube system along with a PV panel array. The deal, costing around $320,000 (EUR234,000), includes batteries, racks, wiring, data communication system and electronics coordination."

     

    http://bit.ly/1ovNUKc
    17 Apr, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    holy crap - 600 is the exact number I came up with by napkin-back math. Thanks!
    17 Apr, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Very comprehensive report on the Ultrabattery demonstration project in PA. John, During your discussions w/ Vani you may wish to make sure he has this if he doesn't already.

     

    PJM performance score on page 21 & 22.

     

    System cost page 29.

     

    12 Month Technical Performance Report

     

    Grid-Scale Energy Storage
    Demonstration of Ancillary Services
    Using the UltraBatteryⓇTechnology

     

    "The completed energy storage system is designed to provide up to 3 MW of frequency regulation into the PJM Energy Market. In addition to frequency regulation, the system has the capability to provide demand management services to Met ‐ Ed during specified high demand power periods. These services can provide up to 1MWh for 1 to 4
    hours. Maximum power is restricted to 0.1 ‐ 1MW as MWh capacity of the system becomes the limitation when providing up to 4 hours of capacity."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1qRpQTs
    17 Apr, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    And thanks again, iindelco. Figure 5 on page 18 clears up what TG meant by "500 kW up - 500 kW down system", for me anyway. Probably most everyone else already knew.

     

    So now I have my weekend planned! After some gardening. And a BBQ. And a few beers with my newly-made Sargent son who ran a "black op" on me; I unexpectedly found him snoring on my sofa this morning!
    17 Apr, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, Enjoy your "company". Hope he didn't park the chopper on the front yard!
    17 Apr, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    UB, 472 USD/KWh based on the system cost sheet pg 29.
    17 Apr, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Whoa, $472 per kwh ... that is almost half as much at the PbC before the automated carbon sheeting process.
    17 Apr, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Sargeant, that is. I knew there was something was bugging me about that sentence. And no chopper, just a damn Dodge truck where there should be a Ford ;) At least it's not an Audi, not that there was any possibility of that! :O I crack myself up.
    18 Apr, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I bet those $/kwh doesn't account for time to replacement.
    18 Apr, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Their PJM performance score has averaged 93.7% just below what Axion has reported, however, they expect typical scores to be between 96-98% above what Axion has reported.
    18 Apr, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    I have only had a chance to skim, but very good white paper on the advantages of UB and something I have been jumping up and down about Axion providing. Yeah, jaded.

     

    Edit: looks like it was prepared in conjunction with the DOE people that I tried to contact when I first found out about this project.
    18 Apr, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure the $472 is all-inclusive of the batteries. The CUBS are a separate line item - they account for 1/4 of the batteries. Factoring them in, you get $617/kWh.

     

    It would be hard to justify the $436,040 as the cost of three air-conditioned 20-foot shipping containers ($3000 for an empty one on eBay)
    18 Apr, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Stefan "Their PJM performance score has averaged 93.7% just below what Axion has reported, however, they expect typical scores to be between 96-98% above what Axion has reported"

     

    What score did Axion report? Whenever I have heard TG discuss it he just says the score is in the 90s and that allows them to participate (usually) without giving any context to the score.

     

    We would expect Axion to have two advantages. First, because of the super capacitors, our battery will respond faster, so we should get a higher score. Second, our batteries should last longer so the payback should be better. Do we have any other advantages or disadvantages?
    18 Apr, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The average round-trip AC to AC energy efficiency of the Ultrabattery installation was 81.5% which strikes me as low, but may not be given the inherent losses arising from an AC to DC conversion for charge cycles and a DC to AC conversion for discharge cycles.

     

    ISTR reading somewhere that the round-trip efficiency of the PbC was a good deal higher, but that may have been a DC to DC number rather than an AC to AC number.
    18 Apr, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Did Axion upgrade to an inverter that would allow the PC to sink and source energy from the grid? I thought it was only functioning for load curtailment.
    18 Apr, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    If I am not mistaken, the PowerCube is an array of stringed PbC batteries, just like the locomotive application.

     

    This does not seem to be the case for the "Ultrabattery" system begin tested. The picture on page 10 can be zoomed in on quite closely and I don't see discrete "batteries". In addition, the text uses the term "modules" and describes the project as "using UltraBattery technology" - not UltraBatteries.

     

    I'm not sure how that impacts anyone's analysis of the system, but this is not UltraBattery vs PbC, even if it's not apples vs oranges.

     

    What I think has to be recognized, however, is that it is quite unfair to compare the $/kWh of a system-supported module array to an individual PbC.

     

    Just the "battery modules": $617/kWh
    All-in system cost: $1351/kWh

     

    And this is just the CAPEX and is based on the nominal 3MWh rating - not the 2MW tested.
    18 Apr, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    iindelco> If I understand the system properly, there's no major hardware difference between operating in front of or behind the meter, but the permitting, validation and interconnection requirements are more stringent for systems that connect on the utility side of the meter.
    18 Apr, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg -

     

    As I recall Axion's initial number was in the 93% range and then moved to 95%.

     

    From the June 2013 10Q

     

    "Our onsite PowerCube™ is cycling in the PJM network on a five day per week basis. The unit was commissioned in October of 2011. The ‘Cube’ has provided many services to Axion in that time frame including: acting as a test bed for larger string applications; proving we can provide a pure sine wave and respond to the PJM signal in milliseconds; proving the PowerCube and associated software can score in the mid 90’s on the PJM scorecard; and serving as a real time field demonstration energy storage device that potential customers can examine."

     

    From September 30, 2012 -

     

    Our grading in the PJM system has averaged over 92 (out of 100) since October 1 st .
    18 Apr, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Ed -

     

    If I am not mistaken, I think JP has commented that UB makes much larger form batteries.
    18 Apr, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    The UltraModule strings each weigh "approximately 126,000 lbs" each.

     

    The weight of each of the 3 CUBS is given at ~50000 lbs. The CUBS are 20-foot containers, weighing 5000 lbs empty, add 1 ton for A/C, etc, net for batteries is 43000, times three gets you 129,000 lbs for the fourth string, hence my inclusion of the CUBS cost in the calculation of the $617/kWh previously.

     

    The total weight of four stings would be 4 X 126,000 = 504,000 lbs, which would be equivalent to 6904 PbC or, if each PbC required 7 lbs of wiring and racks, 6300 PbC. For a rating of 6300 x 0.5 kWh = 3.15 MWh. That's essentially the same number.

     

    6300 PbCs, each with 2 inches clearance on all sides, would occupy 6300 * 0.66 cu ft = 4158 cu ft. Judging the height of the UltraModule strings at 8 foot, that would mean a footprint of 520 square feet, where the total space for four UltraModules is reported to be 4 x 125 = 600 square feet. That's essentially the same number.

     

    6300 PbCs could also be delivered in ~10 self-sufficient, swappable containers (aka PowerCubes), such as the one just delivered to BySolar.

     

    As opposed to specialized semi-permanent installations in a large air-conditioned building.

     

    Not that I wouldn't be tickled to death to see the PbC technology showcased in a similar large-scale manner for comparison with a system built by putting individual batteries on a shelf.
    18 Apr, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Page 32:

     

    "Lessons Learned

     

    Cell temperatures were observed to have a larger than desired range over a stack while operating in the frequency regulation market. While the maximum temperatures observed were around 100°F, the variation between the lower temperature cells (bottom of the stacks) and the higher temperature cells (middle of the stacks) was measured to be approximately 14°F.

     

    Through various trials, East Penn and Ecoult were able to reduce the variation to less than 4°F. The solutions identified in the temperature trials will be implemented in future UltraBattery installations to ensure consistent cell temperatures throughout the system.

     

    Some issues were experienced with incorrect temperature and voltage readings being reported to the battery management system. This caused string faults to occur when there was no real problem present. The cause of these faults was determined to be mechanical stress exerted on sensor wiring and transferred to the connectors to the battery management system. The system design for future installations has been revised to utilize more flexible wiring systems that do not transfer the mechanical stress to the connector and maintain a solid connection with the battery management system. "
    18 Apr, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    This is a very, very helpful document. Every Axionista should print it out and plan to burn through a highlighter marking all the great stuff. A great marketing device by EP. Too bad Axion didn't do it.
    18 Apr, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Al - can I echo and like your statement five times. wtf? Can't say they didn't think about it as I addressed at the meeting last year, in a 3 page letter to TG and regularly on this board.

     

    Can you say negative inference?
    18 Apr, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The document is a formal project report to the DOE on a government funded demonstration project. The battery installation was built with somebody else's money for a single purpose and performed that purpose only.

     

    Axion does not have a comparable facility that's been dedicated to a single purpose. It's time to give it a rest. Doing due diligence on a company you'll never be able to invest in is a profound waste of time.
    18 Apr, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    "profound waste of time." Sorry, don't agree when it's our main competitor in the space.

     

    Although, as ii pointed out, I agree that Axion does not have a comparable facility.

     

    In four years, Axion plant, navy yard, NS, and Bysolar. Am I missing something? In counter argument, some people would say it's time to stop pumping Axion and let them do something publicly.
    19 Apr, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Hey, At least we got TG doing blog entries. Not quite the same thing but it's a start ;-)
    19 Apr, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> If you don't understand the difference between pumping and patiently educating I feel sorry for you. I know you're a victim of battered stockholder syndrome, but think you're blaming the wrong people for your plight while forgetting that your tormenters were just hauled out in body bags.

     

    East Penn did a fine job on their required report to the DOE and they cast their results in the best light possible. It would have been wonderful if the DOE had awarded a similar grant to Axion that resulted in a similar report on the PbC's long-term performance. That didn't happen and we have to play the cards we were dealt instead of whining about the cards we weren't dealt.

     

    In my last trip to Florence I asked Jay Bowman about the Ultrabattery since the AGMs he used in the Gen2 tractor came from East Penn. Jay explained that he'd studied the Ultrabattery specs in detail and concluded that it was a modestly better battery that had no ability to solve ePower's fundamental problems.
    19 Apr, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    I was really interested in the "solutions identified" for the thermal management of cells. Unfortunately, never got a whiff of a detail. They spent quite a bit of time (down-time) on this, though.

     

    They found somewhat effective solutions, too.

     

    I think one possibility may have been the plastic shroud around the entire string (easily seen in the report image, note especially the restricted inlet for the big power connectors out the top) - this seems to be designed for forced air flow purposes, possibly to focus it/accelerate it at particular paths through the module.
    19 Apr, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    John> I'm doing due diligence on Axion Power. This report sheds much-needed and much-desired light on a major application for the PbC battery, albeit using what some see as a patent-infringing half-PbC competitor.

     

    I peruse the report to answer two questions:
    (1) What strengths/weaknesses do I see and could the AXION PbC (or its "cellular" technology) be expected to improve upon or address them or not?
    (2) Do I see the promise of grid storage that I'd like for the future of AXION?

     

    We are hungry for technical details to brag about. We have been granted little insight from New Castle on similar metrics for the PowerCube.

     

    Case in point: Where is the thermal data from the PowerCube string testing? Surely that cannot be under any NDA? Two plus years of data and little awareness of how the batteries are holding up? Any issues? Any positive surprises? How about an SEM pic or two? We have truck batteries on a shelf - is anyone in the R&D group considering any other configuration for grid storage?
    19 Apr, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    John, have to say that doing DD on competitors is certainly not a waste of time. It is IMO quite the opposite on so many levels.

     

    You are correct that there is no way to invest in EP however understanding the industry and where Axion has opportunities and the timing/magnitude of those opportunities is very important. Isn't that a big part of what you've been doing all these years?

     

    EP is a big part of the industry and they are a competitor. The way they are marketing the UB makes them at some levels a big thorn in Axion's a$$.
    19 Apr, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The only people who see East Penn as a competitor or a thorn are people who don't have first hand knowledge of the relationship. The Ultrabattery is competition for AGM but it is most assuredly not competition for the PbC.
    19 Apr, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    The problem is that we had to go to the PIPErs in the first place and the share count is now more than double what it was. You can't expect the PIPErs not to do exactly what they did in their last battery deal with A123 ... beat the crap out of the stock with a pipe. To have thought anything else is naive. And to not have acted on my gut instinct after reading the document and researching the players was also naive.

     

    Fortunately, there haven't been any manufacturing defects such as the one that crushed A123.

     

    In any event, can we sell some damn batteries?
    19 Apr, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    We all thought news was around the corner. It's time to leave that decision behind us. It's also important to note that the PIPE announcement was issued when the share price was .27 and the price ran up to .23 even without the PIPErs being done nor having any news. I still think the share price will head above .30 when the PIPErs are done, which means it will all be a wash in the end for us shareholders. The shares were doubled, but cash did go into the company to further the business and get us closer to a big design win. We own less percentage of the company but the company is now worth more. The whole whisky shot in beer scenario. It's just too bad things took longer than we hoped, but things happen.
    19 Apr, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    At this point we need to ask if another PIPE beating is comings in weeks rather than focus on the beating we should have ducked a year back. ZRPSOD might be last chance for big move. Especially since "news" rarely seems to move the needle around these parts.
    19 Apr, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I have never seen an executive do more than one variable conversion rate deal – NEVER. It's like peeing on electric fence and once is more than enough for any lifetime.

     

    The problem most Axionistas are facing right now is battered stockholders syndrome. We've had four years of daily beatings as investors who bought stock directly from the company resold those shares in the open market. With that history, most can't imagine a day without a beating.

     

    The Axionistas as a group have accounted for 100% of the buy-side activity for the last four years and 1/8 of the sell-side activity. That's an enormously bad supply and demand dynamic. It's without question the worst I've ever seen and most can't even begin to imagine what life would be like without dueling trustees, without big uglies and without PIPErs.

     

    Friday's post-effective amendment seems to indicate that the last of our tormenters are gone. There's nobody left who has a big block of shares to pound into the market.

     

    The world after ZRPSOD will be completely unlike anything most Axionistas have ever seen. I never would have dreamed it could have taken this long but it looks like the day has finally arrived.

     

    Next week my postdoctoral studies in supply and demand imbalances are going to get fascinating.
    19 Apr, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    PIPE or no PIPE; placements go off at discounts. Without a pps move soon, TG will be trapped by the trailing average and the weakening macro-market circumstances. Then likely another 100M shares hit - hopefully those who buy them tuck them away and we finally move up without big uglies smacking us everytime we come up for air.
    19 Apr, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Tom has six months of running room before he needs to close a deal. Another financing round is not something that will happen next week because Tom understands that the market needs time to heal.

     

    I know Tom understands the situation because I've explained the supply and dynamics of the last four years to him. It was a very one sided talk in my sternest lawyer's tone, so I'm sure the message was heard.

     

    You're a victim of battered stockholders syndrome and you've taken a daily beating for so long that you've come to believe Axion deserves the current market price. It's a distorted view of the market based on your history, not objective fact.
    19 Apr, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    "Next week my postdoctoral studies in supply and demand imbalances are going to get fascinating."

     

    John...gotta give you credit going out on a limb again.
    You have brass ones!
    Long time follower/investor...my own due diligence (as well as your intense DD...)...following and reading through all the drama and experiencing "battered stockholders syndrome".

     

    Too much due diligence and intelligent posts not to have something productive at the end of the day re AXPW.

     

    Good thing you have a very thick skin!
    19 Apr, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The registration statement amendment Axion filed on Thursday says there were 221,511,725 shares outstanding on April 14, 2014. That number ties to my 4.11.14 Axion Conversions workbook within a 1% margin of error.

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQSvbf

     

    The first paragraph of the prospectus included in the registration statement amendment explains that the amendment relates solely to shares underlying warrants because "The balance of the original 61,327,781 shares registered hereunder have been sold by the selling stockholders."

     

    While there are two other registration statements that won't be amended until Monday, it would be very unusual to include that language in any prospectus if the selling stockholders weren't completely out of stock.
    19 Apr, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    More likely I'm a sucker who has averaged down too many times. Forgive me if I don't trust TG to wait till last minute on the placement since I don't think beggars can be choosers - also he has chosen poor timing in the past. Didn't TG pull the trigger early in 2012 when we thought the stock was healing ? Yes, I do think TG will wait till Summer but to think he would hold out till October, well that seems doubtful, but one can hope. Let's go up from here and I'd love to look back and eat crow if Axion does a placement higher than last years initial pps.
    19 Apr, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    "I'd love to look back and eat crow if Axion does a placement higher than last years initial pps."

     

    zook> Nothing personal but my fondest wish is now that you will be dining on crow. :-P
    19 Apr, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Would the timing of this filing have been up to Axion, or would it have been required by the SEC at around this time?

     

    I'm idly speculating that TG would know that any developments that might raise the stock price would be completely negated by the PIPErs, and muted by our fear of the PIPErs; that filing this document with the SEC now is Axion's covert signal to the stockholders that ZRPSOD is likely upon us; that having done so, there's no reason to play coy. If so, we may see some news sooner than we think.

     

    I'm not sure if that sort of cunning happens in the real world or not, but it would be pretty memorable if he had arranged for some sort of Easter Monday resurrection.

     

    I don't really believe it - in fact I'm still somewhat suspicious that the May teleconference may only include an update on the BySolar project and no new sales (a depressing but possible outcome). But that's okay; I too am sort of curious to see the effects of ZRPSOD without any news - at least for a little while.
    19 Apr, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    A post effective amendment is required once a year to incorporate the new audited financial statements, so the timing is not unusual.

     

    What is extraordinary is the disclosure that the PIPErs have sold all the shares issued in payment of the notes and registration statement only relates to warrant shares that may be issued in the future.

     

    Under applicable SEC rules, a registration statement or amendment must disclose the ownership of each selling stockholder before the offering, the number of shares to be sold pursuant to the offering, and the number od shares to be held after the offering.

     

    The absence of those disclosures tells me that they have no more shares in inventory and their only remaining interest is the warrants.
    19 Apr, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. It was your mention of that disclosure that made me think perhaps Axion management are trying to give us a wink wink, nudge nudge.
    19 Apr, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It's more than a wink, wink, nudge nudge.

     

    Every registration statement has a list of undertakings on the last page, which are essentially things the issuer is promising the SEC. These are required by SEC rules. The third required undertaking is:

     

    "3. To remove from registration by means of a post-effective amendment any of the securities being registered which remain unsold at the termination of the offering."

     

    That one usually doesn't mean much, but in this deal Axion was required to register 125% of the shares that it expected to issue under the notes. That means there would be shares that need to be removed from registration when the dust cleared.

     

    I won't be certain about what's going on until I see amendments for the other two registration statements, but the numbers fit within a 1% to 2% margin of error.
    20 Apr, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    JP and all,

     

    Some of us have been investing in this company for more than four years. I first bought 1k shares at $2.51 in August 2009. Since that time I have continued to invest whenever possible. I do not jump into or out of the market, but stay fully invested through all the hills and dips. I believe in the technology which underlies the PcB Battery and will stay with it as long as it remains in the forefront.

     

    By the inferred standards of this group, I am a small investor. However, I have accumulated better than 136K shares to date. As the saying goes, "The best comes to those who wait." Happy Easter.
    20 Apr, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I don't consider over a hundred thousand shares a small position by any stretch of the imagination. We do have a couple guys that have accumulated over a million shares but they're rarities.
    20 Apr, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Also of interest for those having the discussion the other day.

     

    "Another major finding in this project is that the UltraBattery does not produce H2 during normal operation in the pSoC region..."
    -
    Stefan, I'll repeat myself. Axion's battery plant is not very efficient and as you mention the cost was before the automated sheeting process. So we know the data we are getting is not from an efficient scaled production process. You can't draw too much of a conclusion on cost based on the info. we have. We only know it's pretty high.
    17 Apr, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ii - Unfortunately, at this point TG deserves a negative inference. He has lost his benefit of the doubt from me. Hopefully that eventually changes, but after four years. Well fortunately, I quit holding my breath on various "initiatives."

     

    Interestingly, I was hoping we would get this kind of data from the last FOIA request, but Axion blacked out all that data. I guess the numbers were too high.
    18 Apr, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I understand and share some of your frustrations.

     

    I'm glad you didn't hold your breath as well! ;-P
    18 Apr, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Half of the other third are trying to steal them! 8-I

     

    New Survey Shows Knowledge Gap in Car Battery Recycling

     

    "Two-thirds of Americans think that dead car batteries mostly sit in landfills and create a hazard."

     

    http://bit.ly/1hRX1Vk
    18 Apr, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    There must be a lead battery industry group. This sounds like something that it would behoove such a group to mount a publicity campaign via television, radio, internet, etc. to show the world that lead (batteries) is one of the most, if not the most recyclable element on earth!!
    18 Apr, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    I would suggest that the reason 71% of Americans don't know what happens to batteries when they are replaced is that they do not change out their own batteries. They just pay the bill which does not include fee for recycling because the retailer already has the old battery.

     

    I do change out my own batteries whenever possible. When purchasing the new battery, a recycling fee is added to the price. If I return the old battery to the retailer, they give me a credit for the fee which was $9.
    18 Apr, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Larry, The way batteries are handled financially are different in each state. In NY they give you 5 USD for the battery if it's a dealer. It depends on the weight if you take it to a recycling center that accepts them.

     

    But your point is well taken. I just find it odd that with our educational system stressing recycling as much as it does, vs when I went to school, that so few people could imagine that a battery, with all the lead inside, is not a valuable thing to recycle.
    18 Apr, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Why are you surprised?

     

    The school that my kids go to push recycling hard. They have recycling bins in each classroom etc. The blue recycling bins get dumped into the same garbage each night as the regular garbage.

     

    Most people throw away regular laptop batteries, AA batteries etc. Most know they shouldn't but they don't care so they assume it extends to businesses as well.
    18 Apr, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Somerset County NJ has been and I believe remains a model of recycling. Slowest workers ever. Garbage collection guys are in and out of my parking common in 7 minutes - recyclers take three times that and more. It's a nightmare for a taxpayer to watch.

     

    Anyway, they quit taking batteries. They just leave them behind if you put them out.
    18 Apr, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    LM...95%...uninformed voters...I mean consumers!
    Most do not read past headlines.
    19 Apr, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Here in Sun City, AZ, the recycling is picked up twice a month by the garbage company. There is no separation of anything just a big barrel. It goes to a plant owned and operated by waste management. There all the grades of plastic 0ne thru seven are separated from glass and aluminum. All newspapers, waste paper, magazines, and cardboard can go into the barrel. It is extending the life of the land fill.
    19 Apr, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I am curious as to what they have up,their sleeve??

     

    On page 33;

     

    "7. FuturePlans
    This demonstration system will continue to operate in the PJM regulation market for the remainder of the project. During this time, one of the four strings will be replaced with a different format UltraBattery capable of higher rate charge and discharge. The new string will be evaluated and the results documented within the final report."
    18 Apr, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    RBruin, They probably have the abilility to alter the material percentages in the NAM to vary the balance between electrochemical and electrostatic energy storage.

     

    So if they go all the way to some small amount of lead with the rest being carbon do they have essentially a PbC and hey that's OK? Thus a concern I have when EB says they have violated Axion's patent but nothing is done. But alas litigation is expensive.
    18 Apr, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    " But alas litigation is expensive. "

     

    I don't see litigation being the only solution. It would seem that when your talking about your friends, who saved your ass from the clutches of Exide ( think flooded LAB contract ), discourse and negotiation go a long long way.

     

    I'm not quite sure why this group is so annoyed at the UB, today. We have known for two years that they were going after the Large stationary grid market. We know the UB product is better than most advanced lead/carbon chemistry. We are pretty sure it doesn't have the life of a PbC (sulfation issues).

     

    These are our business friends that will have no problem selling UB's and PbCs, IMHO. Different chemistries for different applications. I still like the fact that East Penn is building a new AGM plant. Hopefully litigation is far from anyone's mind.
    18 Apr, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I've been annoyed for some time and every time I see the way EP advertises the UB I get more annoyed. But hey, that's just me.

     

    "These are our business friends that will have no problem selling UB's and PbCs, IMHO."

     

    That's what John has indicated as well. I think they are a distraction from Axion's capabilities. But that's just my opinion.

     

    "Hopefully litigation is far from anyone's mind."

     

    I guess, given Axion's resources, I'd have to agree.
    18 Apr, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I don't really see any unfriendliness being expressed by any group. I see more annoyance with TG than East Penn.

     

    The discussion is centered on the excellent report of the UltraBattery technology in a grid-scale installation.

     

    I think an in-depth reading of all patents would be required to understand if any infringement is taking place by either party. Someone would have to obtain an UltraBattery and deconstruct it as well. I think on the face of it, it certainly does appear that the possibility of infringement is there - that really looks like half a PbC electrode in the UB. That's exactly because that's the way they have drawn the Figure we have often commented on.

     

    I may be named after a martyr (Edmund Campion), but when it come to business, I have no martyr complex. If the UB does use Axion IP and that does lead to lost business, I would not expect Axion to fall on its sword for the sake of our friends at East Penn.

     

    IMO, the end of the toll contract will go a long way toward ending the relationship if another contract (East Penn making PbCs) does not take its place.
    18 Apr, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    I am reluctant to submit this because of its date, but I found it interesting and I could not find any references to National Instruments or Dynapower in a history search so I’m assuming it hasn’t been seen here yet. I think it helps reveal how Axion has progressed in this high tech venture and who they are working with to get here.

     

    Published on August 11, 2012 National Instruments in connection with Dynapower Corporation discussed one of their success stories. Battery DC/DC converters for Axion Power International. The video at item 6 discusses the National Instruments product with energy discussed at the 2 minute mark and Axion specifically at the 4:30 mark

     

    http://bit.ly/1eQvC69
    18 Apr, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Kevin,
    Thanks for posting this. I don't believe I have seen it before. I'm sure some of our techies can make something out of this.
    18 Apr, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    in my continuing quest for pertinent information I stumbled across an earlier reference to the same video on concentrator #142 by wtblanchard. I should have known it was already posted. I'll try to be more relevant in the future.
    18 Apr, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    kevin,
    No way, its well worth posting again.
    18 Apr, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Kevin, Don't worry too much about posting information that you have questions on or would like to share. This group is constantly changing so some will find information previously shared new due to their time spent here and others will find it new for reasons I don't wish to discuss!

     

    We sometimes repeat things on a regular basis anyway, much to the dismay of some. The perceived strengths and weaknesses of our CEO as an example. An odds on favorite.
    18 Apr, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Ioxus Technology Selected to Help Long Island Rail Road Trains Reduce Energy Consumption

     

    WRITTEN BY CHAD HALL ON APRIL 17, 2014 | PRESS RELEASES

     

    ONEONTA, NY, April 15, 2014

     

    http://bit.ly/1r4I3et

     

    "Ioxus, a manufacturer of premium performance ultracapacitor technology for use in transportation, industrial and energy applications, today announced its ultracapacitors are being fitted to the railway wayside traction power on the Long Island Rail Road (LIRR). The ultracapacitors will provide voltage support to assist the traction power system, capturing and storing the energy produced by the train, using it to facilitate better acceleration and allowing for greater energy efficiency and reduced energy consumption."

     

    ...

     

    Marcus Emerson, Sr. Electrical Engineer/Project Manager of EPX, said: “We are fitting the ultracapacitor bank in 20-foot shipping containers, where it will sit on the railway traction power feeds and interface with a high power DC-DC converter. Its high-duty cycle and efficient throughput will be integral to successfully providing voltage support and reducing energy consumption, improving the LIRR trains’ performances.”
    18 Apr, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Well there goes the "They don't have room" excuse.
    18 Apr, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    New York hiring (small, not too concerned with updating the web pages .... or nothing till now to say ...) New York

     

    http://bit.ly/1r4Jx8z

     

    "Electrical Power worX Corp (EPX) specializes in the development and manufacture of Energy Storage Systems for use in applications ranging from personal transportation to mass transit to utility scale renewable energy. Energy storage is a key element that enables energy conservation in power distribution networks where energy production and energy consumption may occur at different times or at different rates.

     

    At Electrical Power worX, we are not a manufacturer of the energy storage element, but rather the designer and manufacturer of the Energy Storage System. This allows us the freedom to select the best technology for the specific application.

     

    ...

     

    In addition to energy conservation, proper energy management can reduce the load placed on the power delivery network to allow the overall system to be optimally sized. For example, an ultracapacitor bank may be interfaced with a fuel cell or conventional battery to manage high power pulses while the fuel cell or battery delivers the long term energy delivery needs."

     

    About:

     

    "Electrical Power worX was founded in 2006 by a group of experienced engineers with a common vision of focusing on technologies promoting energy conservation and renewable energy.

     

    The engineers at Electrical Power worX have specialized industry experience with large power conversion technology, electric propulsion systems, as well as mechanical design experience for vehicle applications."

     

    Looking for investors ...
    18 Apr, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ii - the misinformation is astounding. I never bought that one.
    18 Apr, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, When I saw the site installation I thought the same thing.
    18 Apr, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Will Utilities Control Behind-the-Meter Solar Batteries?

     

    http://bit.ly/1eQC4Ka
    18 Apr, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    This program was discussed in the past as a possible opportunity for ePower. Perhaps the timing of the program or its proximity to home base make it less than perfect for ePower's needs.

     

    Crosspoint Kinetics’ hybrid approved for NYSERDA Voucher program

     

    "Inclusion means owners of private and non-profit, Class 3-8 bus and light truck fleets that operate in the New York City area can now get up to 80% of the system’s cost reimbursed as part of an ongoing initiative to reduce noxious emissions in the region, Crosspoint Kinetics said."

     

    http://bit.ly/1eQI1XF
    18 Apr, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ZBB has a part in that system ...
    18 Apr, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I see. Thanks!

     

    "Power Controls for Hybrid Vehicle Systems

     

    ZBB Energy provides controller technology for hybrid motor vehicle systems. As an integral component in Crosspoint Kinetics retrofit hybrid system, ZBB’s power controls are designed to be easily retrofitted into class 4, 5 and 6 vehicles. The hybrid motor vehicle systems will ultimately provide reduced operating costs, improved fuel efficiency and reduced carbon emissions.

     

    http://bit.ly/PRD8fc
    18 Apr, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Axion has made contact with the administrators of the NYSERDA voucher program on ePower's behalf and as soon as we're ready to show them a tractor they're ready to talk turkey.
    18 Apr, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Oh, Good to hear John. I think it makes sense. I just remembered you had said something about keeping a rig closer to home IIRC. Anyway, I think with the new Axion liaison having operated in NY this would make sense. He must have more than a few contacts. And the opportunities presented by supporting the intent of the ePower platform should be of excitement to more than a few. It's rare that you can integrate new technology into old platforms and have it make economic sense on its own.
    18 Apr, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    This I found interesting because I'd not seen it mentioned before. In the past it was indicated that all 2015 Chevy Malibus would come with SS. Now I see they will not offer it on the up scale 2 liter engine which is turbo charged.

     

    So now I'm thinking why this would be. Perhaps the response time from starting acceleration from an engine off event to winding up the turbo charger is to obvious. This could also be why Honda is not offering SS in the US on some of their 2015 models. I think their comments had to do with lack of responsiveness off the line.

     

    The reason I find this interesting is because of the Kia announcement for the 48 VDC system with a electric supercharger and a turbocharger. It has SS. So the supercharger fills in the approx. 2 second lag period from engine on to turbo availability. Does this make sense?

     

    "Engine automatic start/stop is standard on the LS, LT and LTZ models; but not included on the LT and LTZ equipped with the 2.0-litre turbocharged engine. Two 12-volt batteries placed strategically in the car work together to keep things powered up and ready to go. Both engines are matched to a 6-speed automatic transmission. Steering is electric rack-and-pinion, with the new Malibu also highlighting fully independent suspension. Brakes are 4-wheel disc with ABS and Panic Brake Assist all around."

     

    http://bit.ly/1eQMrOa
    18 Apr, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    "Does this make sense?"

     

    I absolutely believe that it makes sense! I believe KIA has identified and is solving the lag problem with the supercharger system.

     

    All we need is for them to someday provide the info regarding Axion Inside!!

     

    18 Apr, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    The automakers keep moving our way---2 batteries on board is closer to us than one.

     

    It's taking a heckuva a long time as everyone knows, thoroughly, completely, painfully and are reminded of a few dozen times each blog, lol, but progress is being made.
    18 Apr, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Here I go speculating again!

     

    Next week could be interesting with the possibility of the PIPREnd occurring along with the US Holiday "Earth Day" taking place on Tuesday the 22nd and then NS releasing their quarterly report on Wednesday the 23rd! How nice it would be for NS to jump onto the Earth Day wagon and announce the completion of the 999!

     

    Just thinking!
    18 Apr, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    All things being equal I'd rather see ZRPSOD without news because it would be a better education in supply and demand dynamics, but I'll suffer through news if I must.
    18 Apr, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Hi JP,
    Your a good man to make such sacrifices. ;-)
    18 Apr, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I understand your concern with news causing a problem with your data collection regarding ZRPSOP. I also admire your commitment to endure the advent of significant news. If news does come out we will never truly know the absolute reason for the stock price rocketing upwards!

     

    This is a real concern of mine also!

     

    Now there is a really big SNARK!
    18 Apr, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    "...but I'll suffer through news if I must."

     

    LOL

     

    But I do understand your point. Could ruin the opportunity for a lesson never to be forgotten. Plus, for someone like me that hasn't bought fully into the theory, it would be an easy retort. Yeah but...

     

    PLUS, All those bragging rights. And they'd be well deserved.

     

    I just hope Axion doesn't ruin the validation window with a great financing package. I'd sure hate that. <ES>
    18 Apr, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    I think that the expectation that ammo-less PIPErs means that the price must take off is flawed. Especially with new financing in Q4 hanging over this stock. The old supply/demand simple explanation of market prices is very comfortable, but it tends to cause complacency in any further thought.

     

    A good example was a few years ago with the unprecedented massive QE by the Fed. A popular theory said that the massive Fed buying was "artificially" holding Treasury yields down and that an easing or exiting of QE had to mean that yields would rocket (bond prices fall precipitously). That the Treasury market was getting addicted to the money spigot being on full blast and the 'withdrawal' would have catastrophic consequences. Krugman saw differently and it turns out he was right. http://nyti.ms/1eQYmeY

     

    His argument, which has a lot of merit, is that asset prices are not determined by total supply and demand curves. They are determined at the margins -- the willingness of buyers and sellers at the 'near' price to place a bid or ask. Any potentially willing buyers or sellers at a far price is irrelevant. Total demand and total supply in existence are not relevant; only totals near the current price are, 'active' supply and demand if you will. Thus asset pricing (of investments) is unlike commodity pricing of necessities.

     

    I agree, and as a result I tend to believe that while AXPW probably shouldn't revisit its lows anytime soon, lacking good news I doubt it will spring up in leaps and bounds either.

     

    The good news however is that good news is getting closer and every day the odds of an announcement go a little higher.
    18 Apr, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Time will tell. I'm a human being and can only speak from the perspective of my own experiences with similar but much smaller supply and demand imbalances. I've been saying for a long time that this will be a once in a lifetime education for me. Hopefully others will learn a thing or two also.
    18 Apr, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    My opinion is that if enough people become expectant of the PIPEnd days actually happening during a specific timeline along with the vision of this event actually causing the stock price to appreciate then this event could be classified as "news".

     

    Once the sellers are diminished and the lurkers start to observe the price stabilize and then start to increase, even in a small amount, that will suggest that the train is appearing to leave the station and they will be enticed to start jumping on.

     

    This "news" of a major share supply balancing event will have an impact as forecasted by JP. Being the greedy bastard that I am, I am hoping that other "news" comes along quickly and throws much more fuel on the fire (or should I say battery power) to get that train a rolling!

     

    News is news and the PIPERS going away is definitely Good News!
    18 Apr, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I've posted the example of PEIX before, where their end of debt shares coincided with a string of good news (none as huge as a design win though). Their share price went from about 6x from the bottom, with a smaller supply imbalance and over twice AXPW's market cap.

     

    I firmly believe that pure ZRPSOD would result in .30 - .40, blunted thanks to funding, whereas a news fueled rally easily 1-2. If NSC were to announce a design win and production scale loco refits, I don't think a 200m market cap is unreasonable for Axion. Auto, add another buck or two. PC could get us to .50+ alone this year also. ePower could be big for 2015 but could also be worth another addition of .25+ in 2014 with some key orders.
    18 Apr, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Since my post-doctoral studies in supply and demand imbalances start next week I don't want to make any predictions because they're certain to be wrong in 20/20 hindsight.
    18 Apr, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    RBrun> News could surely fuel the fire and that is my hope. During the last year any little flicker that got started the PIPErs could and did dump water on it. That's no longer the case.

     

    I do agree that there are many lurkers and in the event that a clear path to PbC sales emerges LOTS of buyers will be scrambling to leap onto the caboose of the train that is accelerating away from the station. It will be fun indeed.

     

    I think the real fun will be when some institutions decide they want to own high six or seven figure stakes. Take a look at the stunning lack of institutional ownership: http://yhoo.it/1hVySMP When they buy an illiquid micro-cap they don't quibble over share price like we do; they drive it up quickly in sopping up shares. Some will own Axion as a growth play but it will also be attractive as a hedge. That is, if you own LAB or Lithium production then by owning PbC too no worries if PbC starts gobbling market share.

     

    So I do believe at some point we'll see action in AXPW not too unlike PLUG's run. I just think a big run up of hundreds of percent is unlikely without the news we've been waiting years for -- some sustainable PbC sales.

     

    It won't take much water on the parched lips of Axion investors to get them excited. In a sense the years of sales drought is a twisted blessing. It has got the market cap down to an extremely pessimistic place when we all know the PbC has developed into an extremely promising technology. We also can fairly assume that the chief objection to PbC -- high cost -- will come down dramatically with scale and manufacturing experience. Last time I checked coconut waste wasn't too pricey.

     

    While we continually split hairs over the details, in the broad view from 1000 feet the major ducks are lined up perfectly, leading me to make AXPW a close 2nd behind my largest individual stock bet ever.
    19 Apr, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    During the March run up I noticed that often shares would be sopped up during intraday periods of weakness. Often a ridiculously high bid would be placed far over the ask. This is not the activity of momo-traders but of deep pockets who want the shares.
    19 Apr, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I don't think we've seen the momentum traders yet. There are a few intrepid Axionistas that so some trading with small positions, but so far it all looks like widespread accumulation by the sock drawer crowd.

     

    Cumulative volume since the beginning of Q2-10 is 465 million shares – 232.5 million on the sell side and 232.5 million on the buy side. I can identify 198 million shares of selling by investors who bought shares directly from the company.

     

    That means only 15% of sell-side activity over the last four years has come from investors who bought shares in the open market and then resold them. That's a black hole if I ever saw one.
    19 Apr, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Great post RA and all. I agree. I will try to fill my 100K...nix that...I WILL fill my 100k this week. I believe, after the PIPEr's are gone, volume will drop to low levels and the price will be fairly stable, because, as I have said before....I'M NOT SELLING at .20, .30, .40, .50. That means a .15 isn't going to move me to sell, on up the scale. I think that most of us AXIONistas are in a similar mind frame...and they ain't sellin', either. The lurkers are still lurking at this level. Not buying! But when the 999 starts rolling, when another PC is sold, when e-Power leases a truck...watch out! Then I think the bid will go up fast and dramatically! That's when the supply and demand kicks in as demand far outstrips supply. The few who are willing to be separated from their shares at .50 will leave buyers hungry for more shares...and this is where JP's market pendulum "swings" into action and takes the price well above where it should be! 'Course, at that point, what does it do next? Retreat or stay at that inflated price (like TSLA)? HTL probably has a much better concept of that than I!!!
    19 Apr, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    What Does Earth Day Mean Today?
    Published April 18, 2013

     

    On April 22 of each year people around the world plant trees, commute to work by bicycle and pick up trash in their neighborhoods to observe Earth Day, an event created to shine a spotlight on environmental concerns.

     

    http://to.pbs.org/1mjZCa6

     

    I have to imagine that carbon battery powered trains with zero emissions could fit right in there with the celebrations!

     

    Come on NS, time to blow your train whistle real loud!! ;-))
    18 Apr, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    I think you guys are right that NS could make an announcement about the 999 on Earth Day. However, I think it would be Earth Day 2015 if the locomotive passes its testing and is transitioned from operations testing into commercial operations.

     

    I think any 2014 announcement will likely be limited to a brief announcement buried in the sustainability report or a one liner in a quarterly report. I'll be glad to bet anyone a beer to be settled during the Axion annual meeting at that bar a few blocks down from the hotel everyone stays at.
    18 Apr, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Wondering here how TG comes to the next CC without some news of significance?

     

    Really - what creditability would he have left?
    18 Apr, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    I'll take that bet, Al.

     

    With the government handing out subsidy monies in the billions for green initiatives, I think it will behoove NSC to invite as many politicians as possible to the unveiling of the 999.

     

    Further, the EPA is after RR outfits to decrease emissions at switching yards. Many, many months ago, I linked up some articles about the EPA doing a $1M study around one of the largest yards (Mendocino?) in California, because cases of asthma to various types of cancers were dramatically higher, and life expectancy was reduced in residences that were located near that switching yard.

     

    With Norfolk so "famously" failing with their previous attempt to have an all-electric yard switcher, I doubt NSC will bury the unveiling in a sustainability report, especially with the gobs of money Uncle Sam is doling out to improve air quality via the Clean Air Act of 1963.

     

    The appropriately named Green Goat is a slam dunk to create hoopla, pomp and fanfare, and lots of green news for the media agencies to cover.

     

    Though I'd bet a six pack the unveiling won't happen on this forthcoming Earth Day, as we have already here in the APCs been provided with a Facebook link that the 999 won't be rolling until late June at the earliest.

     

    One more sidebar aspect is that I highly doubt TG will do any cap raising until after the Green Goat rolls, which if NSC does hold an unveiling for both the politicians and the media, the result should likely attract new money to invest in Axion, and ergo, the stock price should rise, at least somewhat.

     

    I may sell off some of my AXPW holdings if the price spikes in the near future due to a supply shortage. But the bulk of my holdings will not be sold until after (timing of which is yet to be determined) the Green Goat rolls.

     

    Which oddly, is, if the Facebook link proves true, timed pretty close to the annual shareholders conference.
    18 Apr, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    I'll add that I also expect JP to conjure up an article about the Green Goat unveiling that will garner an Editor's Pick attention from Seeking Alpha.
    18 Apr, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Maya> "The Green Goat" was the nickname for a true hybrid switching locomotive that Railpower Technologies started testing in 2001 and started selling in 2004. It was a big hit with the railroads which ordered 66 units before battery problems reared their ugly heads.

     

    http://bit.ly/sHlXQ2

     

    The NS 999 is affectionately referred to as "The Green Weenie."

     

    http://bit.ly/1g3ojqq
    18 Apr, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    The unveiling 1.0: http://bit.ly/1i7uSEE
    18 Apr, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    a/k/a – the mega-ooops;-)

     

    I do find it more than a little bit fascinating that NS has spent twice as much time testing the PbC as it did building the first prototype.

     

    It's enough to make me believe the NS 999 project is very important to NS management.
    18 Apr, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    A "herd of weenies" just doesn't do it for me, so I've stuck with goats. I suppose I could shift my hopes to "a bigger pack of weenies".

     

    In any case, I think the green weenie came about because of the shape of the NS999 - snubbed on both ends as it has almost no hood - so it looks like a hot dog to someone.

     

    I'm not sure how much affection is out there. It'll come, though. Pass the muster!!!
    19 Apr, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: What if a "herd of weenies" came with a "herd of buns" and "muster", relish, ...

     

    Or come to think of a day at the beach, a "herd of buns" might suffice.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Bummer. That didn't update correctly and is wrong.

     

    I did some more digging.

     

    The nickname "green weenie" was applied to a number of similarly-shaded green BNSF SD-40-2 locomotives.
    You can see one here: http://bit.ly/1qYYhaE and here:http://bit.ly/1mkXvoY
    I think the long horizontal lines are reminiscent of a hot dog, hence the moniker. This use predates the NS-999 program by a number of years.

     

    I found NO evidence that the NS-999 was ever called a "green weenie" prior to this Oct 2012 Facebook post by Altoona Works, where it is not capitalized: http://on.fb.me/1qYYjzn

     

    Then in October 2013, the "green weenie" became the "Green Weenie" is in this widely "republished" article: http://bit.ly/1qYYhaI

     

    I see little evidence of affection out there and the history of Green Weenie as a nickname for anything else is not flattering:
    http://bit.ly/1qYYhaM
    and here:
    http://bit.ly/1qYYjPN
    19 Apr, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they should go with the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile colors for the NS-999?
    19 Apr, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Now that would be a sausage party I wouldn't mind attending.

     

    D
    19 Apr, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking NS should paint "Powered by PbC Batteries" on the 999's side, after they show it works well, as a very visible ad of their successful electrification efforts and as another nod to their partner Axion.

     

    No one else will have this solution that these guys worked hard to produce, and NS could augment their returns by building them for other rails. And, of course, they'd get more PR both generally and in the urban locales where they strongly need to reduce emissions.

     

    Hey, kinda nice when you allow yourself to come out of the bunker and ideate, even for a few minutes. I am SO looking forward to the switch from dark skies to blue.
    19 Apr, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    New Axion Blog entry:

     

    Apr 18, 2014
    The Mighty Micro-Hybrid: A Perfect Fit for PbC®

     

    http://bit.ly/1mkdEs8

     

    Blog header: http://bit.ly/1mkdDoi

     

    almost 2 months since the last entry.
    18 Apr, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message