Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (466)
Track new comments
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    While I don't generally double post messages this one got posted near then end of Concentrator 324 and I think MY NEW ZRPSOD WORKBOOK provides a great overview of the dominant market forces over the last four years.

     

    http://bit.ly/1lrGObT

     

    Most investors have heard references to "overhang" from time to time. In the typical case it refers to pre-IPO shares that are coming out of lock-up and are expected to exert pressure on the price as the pre-IPO investors sell all or a portion of their shares to take their gains.

     

    Overhang is also important when a company like Axion does big direct placements to a small number of purchasers who decide to sell for one reason or another. Over time sustained sell side pressure has a huge negative impact.

     

    The linked workbook is a quarter-by-quarter analysis from Q2-10 forward. It identifies all of the holders and groups that have been sellers over the last four years, shows how many shares were added to the overhang in each quarter and shows how many shares were absorbed from the overhang in each quarter.

     

    The YELLOW overhang additions are documented.

     

    The GREEN overhang additions are assumptions, but they're the only assumptions that explain the market's behavior.

     

    While everybody knows that we've had lots of direct investor selling over the last four years, I think this workbook does a good job of highlighting the sustained nature of the sell-side pressure and the relative magnitude of the overhang balance.

     

    There were only three times when we were out of the woods with a negative overhang balance (RED NUMBERS).

     

    • The first was immediately before the 2012 offering.
    • The second was immediately before the 2013 offering.
    • The third is NOW and unless Axion does something stupid the market should have adequate time to heal before the next raise.
    21 Apr, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    Did Axion do something "stupid" in 2012 and 2013 or was their hand forced? I fear TG doesn't have the cards. Hopefully, he hits his draw.
    21 Apr, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    Is there a way to view this in pdf ? I don't have office.
    21 Apr, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Masi: I recommend you install Libreoffice, or Openoffice. It is free and easy to use and can read and save many different formats.

     

    I've been using it a long time and am pleased.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    Financing terms are rarely a kiss on the cheek and small company executives frequently get bloodied. It's just the way things are; until they're not. The only stupid thing management could do is rush into a new financing deal without giving the market room to breathe first.
    21 Apr, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    So we wait so the next obscure promise.

     

    http://bit.ly/QBoWxb
    21 Apr, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Ah, Iindelco. First big argument with my then-new wife was when she threw out my Pink Floyd albums w/o asking, of course.

     

    Approaching 30 years later and she's not been forgiven yet.

     

    But I hold no grudges! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    HTL, and the marriage survived? Well I'd say Romeo and Juliet had nothing on you two! Now I'm starting to better understand the Axionista mentality. Hoping PbC can help clear the air to better see the winged one verifying the Axion story.

     

    http://bit.ly/1po6g3Q
    22 Apr, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Adding trading blocs this morning...
    21 Apr, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    In at .14x...

     

    Still alert for opportunity this morning early. Anything under .15 is attractive (short term).
    21 Apr, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (464) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Added link to John's comment and workbook to the header.
    21 Apr, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Thanks APH I was going to suggest that, but you are way ahead of me as usual. :-)
    21 Apr, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Good SA article on solar.

     

    The Battle For The Sun (Or Who Will Collect The Rental Income For Solar Energy In The 21st Century?)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Apr, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Article provides many items for thought. The 100 trillion dollar amount has been bandied about before. IIIRC that number in and of itself becomes almost impossible to spend on energy if anything in the worlds economy is to be left for items like food and housing. But it is not easy to write about the next 60 years. Some assumptions have to be made. Very interesting though.
    21 Apr, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (852) | Send Message
     
    News from truck, train or power cube and we will be "off to the races".
    The word of the day is "Risen".
    21 Apr, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    from Mr. Investor in the previous Concentrator, re' the NS999 and similar locomotives: "No one else will have this solution that these guys worked hard to produce, and NS could augment their returns by building them for other rails. And, of course, they'd get more PR both generally and in the urban locales where they strongly need to reduce emissions."

     

    During my reading time with the NS all-electric battery-powered locomotive patent, I have focused on details and specifics as they relate to Axion Power and the NS vision in the case that we become the battery provider, but there have always been questions in the back of my mind about the power or scope of the patent. To what extent have they "locked up" Axion's PbC batteries for this application? Can anyone else build a battery-powered locomotive or will it have to be Norfolk Southern building them and/or licensing the technology or some sort of royalty arrangement?
    21 Apr, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Edmund,
    As far as anyone here knows there is no exclusive licensing of the PbC battery to NS for an electric loco. It should be noted that NS has recieved a patent for their own Battery management system for use of the PbC in an electric loco. This likely stems from their proprietary battery research while testing the PbC. It will be interesting to see how far the NS- Axion relationship extends if the electric or hybrid loco takes off. The most interesting thing to me is that all of NS needs can be produced at New Castle. A highly profitable use of that space.
    21 Apr, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    As I understand the industry dynamic the Tier I railroads cooperate on technology development and deployment issues that can benefit the industry because they aren't truly competitors due to the territorial concentrations of their networks and anything that makes it easier for the industry to comply with regulations benefits them all.

     

    While the financial arrangements will fairly compensate a company like NS that goes out on limb to develop a particular technology, their main concern is making money from hauling freight.
    21 Apr, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Added thought:
    I understand NS does the work for some smaller operations that don't have the facilities to build and overhaul as as they do. Likely they will be buying (for a price) as well.
    21 Apr, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Comment excerpt from Retired Aviator in the previous Concentrator re' the locomotive opportunity: "Thanks all. Just to clarify, by locomotives I was thinking freight trains. The opportunity there at 800 to 1700 batteries per unit is pretty incredible. If any passenger train ever uses PbC I'll consider it a bonus but that's not factored into my investment thesis at this point."

     

    I sincerely hope no one objects to my bringing forward excerpts of comments; I do so in the interest of continuing the relevant discussions without losing the connection to what has been said before.

     

    The differences between freight and passenger rail that might impact the appropriate battery choice, as noted by others previously, include the possible tolerance for lower acceleration in freight apps (which might actually be required to prevent load shifting) and the lighter trains in passenger rail (even in the heavy segment of the passenger market). The two differences seem to me to be two sides of the same coin.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mvxC67
    Amtrak has just purchased 70 electric locomotives powered by pantograph. These will replace the 60 they currently have, all of which are "confined to the Northeast Corridor and Philadelphia to Harrisburg Main Line".

     

    The rest of the national system utilizes ~267 diesel-electric OTR locomotives, none of which are the same as those used by rail.
    They also have ~48 diesel-electric switchers - many these are much like the NS999, in fact they are using some of the same GP-38s (13 of them). But in general their switchers are lower horsepower and push around lighter units.

     

    The switchers might be doing lighter work, but in order to do anything they still have to be just as heavy themselves or the wheels will slip. Same goes with the OTR locos.

     

    Essentially the mass of the cars they push is irrelevant insofar as their own mass is sufficient to make full use of any available regenerative braking energy and to recapture the energy they used in getting themselves (and any cars) up to speed. There may be less regenerative braking energy available, but there is also less acceleration energy required. They might need fewer batteries or they might go further up the hill with the same number. I'd vote for the 1728 every time.

     

    The Amtrak diesel locomotives are used for city-to-city transport - meaning they stop regularly at places where it is convenient to charge any batteries they might be carrying. IMO, the case that can be made for hybridization of freight locomotion is simply cheaper and more convenient for passenger rail. The passenger rail locomotives are predominantly B-B (2 trucks @ 2 powered axles) with DC traction motors. Again, IMO, these would be excellent candidates for hybridization.

     

    I don't see any better battery out there for the hybridization of freight or passenger rail locomotives than the PbC. At this point, neither does Norfolk Southern, it seems.

     

    Climb aboard, Amtrak!
    21 Apr, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2737) | Send Message
     
    EM, I'll just add two points.

     

    First, if faster acceleration is desired in passenger vs freight, then come to papa. An inherent trait of batteries in motive power is their ability to generate max torque from the get-go, i.e., faster acceleration. Just ask ePower about the boost their trucks get from batteries.

     

    Second, passenger rail exhaust is quite a problem in certain locations. Just ask any rail commuter whose face turns green twice a day inside Union Station in Chicago.
    21 Apr, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    For those that might have missed it, ATDF has a 150K offer at $0.149 that's currently masked by a better one from ATDF. Entered at the open - I saw it as 9:31 A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    "It's just a bunny rabbit." "Run away."

     

    Mitsubishi sells battery manufacturing, switches focus of battery business to grid-tied energy storage

     

    http://bit.ly/1mw3nMl
    21 Apr, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Next door link:
    http://bit.ly/1mwVs1a

     

    For those interested in XIDEQ:
    RWTH Aachen University is coordinating an effort of SMA Solar Technology AG (Niestetal, Germany), utility E.ON (Düsseldorf, Germany), and battery makers Exide Technologies (Milton, Georgia, U.S.) and Beta Motion GmbH (Pulheim, Germany) to build a 5 MW modular battery storage system by the end of 2014.

     

    Design to combine lithium-ion, lead-acid and high-temperature batteries

     

    The M5BAT storage system will combine three different battery technologies, using lithium-ion batteries to meet short term demand, lead-acid batteries for discharge times of under one hour, and high-temperature batteries to supply power for several hours.

     

    The project will receive EUR 6.5 million (USD 8.9 million) in funding from the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, through its “Energy Storage Funding Initiative”.
    21 Apr, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco
    Puff puff puff.... OK I've had my pipe of hopium and I'm ready to conjecture.
    Mitsubishi sells their Li Ion production plants and get's into grid storage.
    Which means to me; they don't think Li Ion is good for grid storage. (Why sell what you are about to use?)

     

    OK?
    That means they think there is something better for grid storage.
    Puff puff... good stuff!
    A few months back (6?)we were told the Asian auto maker introduced PbC to another (unnamed) division of the company.

     

    Humm?
    21 Apr, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    froggey - unfortunately, the linked article is not as clear as the announcement from Mitsubishi Heavy itself.

     

    http://bit.ly/1tv65mF

     

    "MHI will shift its management resources into operations in energy storage system (ESS) products employing lithium-ion rechargeable batteries."
    21 Apr, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: read the way I do? I suspect they see the battery mfg itself being less amenable to good margins as the purported $/Kwh improvements occur over time (and capacity is potentially more than demand might warrant going forward?) but the profitability of all the surrounding management (environment control, charge/discharge rate management, operating within grids in multiple jurisdictions, ...) remains strong as the market demand grows where there is relatively little existing expertise and experience? Good consulting contracts too?

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking that they had a form factor in those factories which is aging and perhaps even NOT the one they intend to ultimately use in their ESS line. Rather than invest further billions in plants in need of expensive updates, perhaps they made the right decision by avoiding the long term costs while taking in some cash short term.

     

    I also agree with HTL about dumping the low margin end of the business. Sound logic.
    22 Apr, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    We saw the same dynamic a few weeks ago when NEC bought A123 Systems' grid energy storage business for $100 million but left the battery manufacturing assets with the Wanxaing Group.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1juLzuq

     

    It was a smart trade from Wanxaing's perspective since they only paid $256 million when they bought A123's assets last summer.

     

    http://bloom.bg/T6B8W3
    22 Apr, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they also want to be battery agnostic in the grid energy storage business? And maybe they also are no longer seeing lithium ion scaling i automotive as much as they once did? Maybes, but if lithium ion was a clear winner they wouldn't be selling it.
    22 Apr, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    In 2009 I spoke at EESAT and was intrigued by Ali Nourai's explanation that automotive was supposed to drive scale, performance and quality in lithium-ion batteries and the push from automotive would ultimately make them cheap enough and durable enough for grid applications.

     

    It is fun to see how mythology evolves over time.
    22 Apr, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Taiwan on the move in EVs/IEVs:

     

    http://bit.ly/1juYzQN
    http://bit.ly/1juYxrZ

     

    Mitsubishi is not leaving Li-ion - the previously-linked MHI announcement explicitly states that they are continuing Li-ion development.

     

    Taiwan-Japanese cooperation continues to grow - as does trade amongst all peri-China Pacific Rim nations, probably as a long-term effect of China's increasingly aggressive economic policies, not to mention the increasing number of disputed islands and territorial claims.

     

    From the MHI announcement linked previously:
    "Leveraging the new agreement, going forward MHI and Delta Electronics also plan to join forces in pursuing further development of the lithium-ion rechargeable battery business, including ESS products."

     

    Delta Group still has no press release on their site that I can find.

     

    I don't think this has anything to do with MHI disavowing or distancing itself from Li-ion. Taiwan wants to accelerate their EV industry - battery manufacturing seemed to be their weak link. I think this deal may have been brokered at high levels of both governments. Just guessing.
    22 Apr, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Edmund
    They can say they are going to stick with Li Ion for storage. But battery agnostic is possible too.
    After all they are not going to say: "We are dumping some worthless junk. I sure am glad we were able to sucker them into buying it as we'll never use it."

     

    "Mitsubishi is not leaving Li-ion - the previously-linked MHI announcement explicitly states that they are continuing Li-ion development. "

     

    What they said was: http://bit.ly/1mw3nMl
    "Parent company Mitsubishi Group (Tokyo) is simultaneously entering into a new joint venture in Germany with Robert Bosch GmbH (Gerlingen, Germany) and GS YUASA Corp. (Kyoto, Japan) for the development of improved lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles. "

     

    A JV for R&D for improved Li Ion for EVs. This sounds like the cheapest way to go without dumping it entirely.

     

    Yeah it's hopium laced but not entirely implausible.
    22 Apr, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Any sign yet of those two registration reports that you mentioned were to be released today?
    21 Apr, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    There haven't been any additional amendment filings yet, but the market seems to be behaving like I'd expect on the first day of ZRPSOD.
    21 Apr, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    How so? You expected miniscule volume even though many read your words? Has retail become numb or is everyone waiting for the first 25% up to be someone elses good fortune?

     

    "but the market seems to be behaving like I'd expect on the first day of ZRPSOD."
    21 Apr, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    Anyhow here is off-topic article how someone else profited once he determined there was no other major sellers in a micro-cap? Hopefully these types of buyers are following Axion.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mwPDAJ
    21 Apr, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    There's a big difference between reading my words and accepting them without question. I've been predicting a supply and demand inflection for a long time and things haven't worked out the way I thought they would.

     

    I told readers "we're almost there" in January 2012 (which we were) and I told them the same thing in early Q2-13 (which we were again) but Axion ruined the party when it pulled the financing trigger too quickly.

     

    I've got two strikes against me on this question and I've already committed to the next swing.

     

    The good thing about being imperfect is that my words don't inspire precipitous action. Instead, they just draw a little more attention to subtle signs and portents of impending change.
    21 Apr, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I think you're being modest, most here only know about Axion because of you. And assuming those who post are/were invested in AXPW, I'd say your "words" have contributed greatly to stock trading "volume" and that's why today's low volume seems strange to me in anticipation of ZRPSOD. Might have to do with the battered dog/spouse effect you speak of though.
    21 Apr, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    The two things I want to see before a definitive ZRPSOD call are (a) low trading volume because nobody is pushing shares into the market, and (b) a few days of single digit FINRA short percentages.

     

    Today's volume was on the low end of a normal range, but not low enough to constitute a clear sign. We won't know about today's FINRA short percentage for an hour or so.

     

    I haven't seen anything that says ZRPSOD hasn't arrived, but the signs aren't clear enough to declare that it has arrived.
    21 Apr, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    I think today is one of the 10 lowest going back to last Summer so I hope your right.
    21 Apr, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that anytime you try to track the movement of somebody else's shares it's a challenge and it's doubly challenging when the number of shares you want to track runs close to 200 million. I always feel best when "close is good enough horseshoes, hand grenades and nuclear weapons." When you start talking about selling stockholders, close simply isn't good enough.

     

    ZRPSOD is one of those things I won't recognize for sure until I see it clearly in my rear-view mirror. By then, everybody else will recognize it too.
    21 Apr, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    For your letterheads:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mseNxX

     

    (credit to jpau for the idea, maplecorner for the quote and JP for the translation)

     

    EDIT: by all means, somebody with more skills may improve upon it.
    21 Apr, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    With the "United" it reminds of of an English Premier League football team.

     

    Good work though. It looks right impressive.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    "I can't imagine price next year" - a nice touch.
    21 Apr, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Mr. I,

     

    With the trading today up to 1:20pm having 275k traded and not much push taking place are you sensing a change? Am I becoming a little too optimistic right now? With JP's spreadsheet proclaiming a possible PIPEnd and the low volume and so far no heavy sell pressure I am thinking that this may be the deciding week!!

     

    Any opinions/speculations appreciated!
    21 Apr, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: All I can offer is that buy:sell was a nasty 1:3.x for most of the morning. Right now through 12:15 it has improved to 1:1.68, 36.95% buys. Not a strong number.

     

    That may be influenced by ATDF having been active on the bid, walking them up as usual.

     

    ARCA didn't make a move until 12:06 and was out of the offer side by 12:15.

     

    That's resulted in an improved VWAP, 4.52% so far.

     

    We don't know if we'll see late-day weakness or strength today and they've not had a real reliable trend in that recently.

     

    I expect resistance at $0.15, but don't really know how strong if PIPErs are really gone. If they are, that means the selling will be from other folks and I don't have any recent feeling for what their behavior will be either.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    I stand my previous prediction. Trading up slowly to low-mid '20s with the end of PIPE, but with no sales news.

     

    Significant sales will bring .40s-.50s.

     

    Sales producing free cash flow will bring 1.00 - 2.00
    21 Apr, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    HTL: FWIW, I entered a GTC order Sunday night and it was filled yesterday at .1444. On the road right now, checking in, and glad to see today's action.

     

    First verses of the Church Pew Theory now in effect, IMO.

     

    Need to conjure up out of my aging memory one of those church going days of yesteryear some appropriate hymn, like, "Take Me To The Mountain," or, "Onward Marching Axionistas, Marching off to War..."
    22 Apr, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Maya: This A.M. I see that $0.15 *is* acting as resistance. I (adjusts TFH) see exactly two trades at 15:56 way above the prior trades: $0.1509 x 10K and $0.151 x 200 shares.

     

    My believe that the pews right now are being populated by folks being led with manipulated action.

     

    (removing TFH). But it all looks good on the traditional TA charts - time to get in there!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Thanks for that. ATDF appears to have the most shares for sale right now. I see they have 10k offered at $.1489 and there is another 125k shares hiding behind.

     

    I guess I need to go for a ride on the Harley and quit watching so closely! ;-)
    21 Apr, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    ARCA returned @ 15:14 with offer of $0.142 x 7K.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1803) | Send Message
     
    How does that offer compare to previous ARCA offers?

     

    I ask because I opened an account at IB and it looks like my order in another stock was presented by ARCA.
    21 Apr, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: ARCA, as usual *recently*, was in on the offer at $0.249 x 4K before the open and sat there. The they made a move that wasn't unusual for them - drop in just under the best prevailing offer at the time - their normal M.O. The xact price seems dictated but what price is doing at the time. Today was 7K shares, other days 9K shares and often 5K shares.

     

    As with their *very* recent behavior, one hit & run and then go lay low somewhere.

     

    12:06 $0.147 x2.5K, 12:07 $0.147 x 5K, 12:15 exit stage right, 15:15 $0.142 x 7K, 15:31 exit.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: Doing my EOD, I had more time to look at ARCA. The 2.5K offer I mentioned was probably really 5K, but at the same minute 2.5K traded at that price. That was before I took my snapshot, so all I captured was the remaining 2.5K.

     

    That's best guesstimate though - not gospel.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1803) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. That M.O. seems unlike retail but it also doesn't seem like many shares are left.

     

    I thought I'd be sneaky today by adding a minimum amount to my order as to avoid another 1k share purchase. Got my minimum. No desperate sellers here...
    21 Apr, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    I see them! Can't say that I am happy to see them though!

     

    ;-))
    21 Apr, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    Many of us ask why can't Axion raise strategic institutional capital? Here is a peek at that mindset. http://read.bi/1mwS32r

     

    Axion did it with Quercus but I suspect that might hurt them nowadays since the VC types likely will question the revenue journey length.
    21 Apr, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Good read 'Zooook!

     

    Is it just because I'm "battered" or was the "magnetic CEO that people want to follow" sort of depressing?

     

    No slam intended, but sparking enthusiasm seems to get harder as time passes.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1616) | Send Message
     
    "Its a huge red flag if former employees don't want to work with the CEO again"

     

    :)

     

    Someone thinks this could be the case for Axion, hence the departure of some key personnel over the years? And this is by no means the only argument against VC involvement with Axion. But again, VC funding has to date mostly targeted Technology and not Good Ol' manufacturing!
    21 Apr, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1616) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    The positive aspect of the Axion story is that shortly enough we will know whether TG belongs to the Bush League (Many people are starting to raise this scenario), or whether he is truly the competent, persistent character that makes of Axion a commercial success.

     

    We shall soon know :)
    21 Apr, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: I know I'm always behind the curve on this judging others stuff, but with the environment TG has to operate in - populated by snail's-pace customers - I don't know I could ever call him bush league.

     

    Considering how little government $ was put into Axion, compared to some spectacular failures in the "darlings" of the DOE that received a whole bunch of "our" money, just surviving this long regardless of what we may judge as missteps is a feat not to be overlooked, IMO.

     

    Doesn't mean I'm in love with all that's happened, but I do try and consider things in context and cut some slack where I think it may be deserved.

     

    Different strokes and all that.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1616) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I do agree. TG has been dealt a horrific sequence of events for the past few years, and I do have a lot of respect for his steering of the ship while at the same time not selling Axion's soul to the vultures. Whether he can start racking in the revenue remains to be seen.

     

    I know I have been overly critical of him at times, but I was merely venting my frustrations in the face of unfolding events. Now that we are very close to the end of PIPE, I sure hope we do get some upside before the next capital raise is due!
    21 Apr, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Good points but I think many are ready for some new blood to take over the reigns (someday). Whether that happens now or in a year or two after Axion starts doing 7-8 figure deals remains to be seen. However, I do suspect that TG might hand the baton if this thing ever gets into a few hundred million in market cap. At that point the number of CEO candidates willing to come to New Castle would be pretty large imho.
    21 Apr, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka: Ignoring his age and possible desire to retire (alliteration!?), I'm thinking that for on-going operations he's not necessarily a bad person to leave in place.

     

    From all I can gather, everyone here thinks generally his weakness is in developing the market, i.e. making some sales occur in what folks think is a reasonable time-frame.

     

    If we've started doing the 7-8 figure deals, he's overcome that hurdle and I can't see tossing the experience he's gained from all the on-the-job training as a necessarily good move.

     

    Many of the skills employed, and learned, in the development to that point should still be quite valuable in day-to-day operations, growing market share, normal levels (for a commercial entity) of on-going R & D, ...

     

    Of course, all that is *very* subjective and there's many good arguments the other way as well.

     

    I'm sort of thinking of the excitement when Vani came on board and we all thought that would result in some big move in at least the auto segment very quickly. But even with his background, essentially little movement to date.

     

    That makes me wonder what real gains might be had from a new CEO regardless of background and skill set.

     

    E.g. Will we be discussing a year or two from now whether DiGiacinto was really that much of a gain for the company?

     

    Time will tell. I'm just thinking that whomever is in charge will be victim to the nature of the industry - we ain't in the personal computer space! I'm thinking of modifying my take of the space from "snail's pace" "to "glacial pace"! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I spent three years living all over Alaska. Beautiful place. Inspiring. Lots of post-card memories.

     

    One of which is walking around the front edge of a glacier (they don't all end in water) and seeing evidence of it's movement in freshly-uplifted soil where its "toes" dug in. I actually recall myself thinking "remarkable!" - and so it must have been to be remembered some 25-30 years later!
    22 Apr, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: I never got to Alaska, but got to go to St. mary's Glacier in CO when I trained for the Sanke search and rescue team. Even that "little" one was a beautiful site, especially with the mountains all around it.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: Your comment stimulated an old, in relative terms, memory.

     

    Perhaps other than JP, I might be the only one of us Axionistas to witness live how TG handled being let down.

     

    At the PowerCube unveiling in Nov. 2012, the then CEO of Veridity Energy chose not to come to the unveiling. I was standing within earshot of TG learning of Audrey _____ (?) not attending the unveiling.

     

    TG digested this let down in about five seconds and moved on.

     

    I was impressed. That's how I want "my" CEO to act.
    22 Apr, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    Nov 2011?
    22 Apr, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    RA: I stand corrected. 2011 it was. Thanks. But the message remains.
    22 Apr, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Maybe a preview of the level of importance Viridity would place on the relationship?
    22 Apr, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: Given that Audrey Zibleman left Viridity Energy about 9 months ago, to go work for the New York Department of Public Services, that may be subject to debate, from several sides, angles and proclivities.

     

    I no longer view Viridity as a significant player in the grid-biz. Heck, and most definitely not apples to apples, but I used to employ more people than Viridity does now.

     

    http://linkd.in/PsafeQ

     

    At home (not there now, but will soon be), I retain a few biz cards from Viridity executives. When I get back home, I'll do some checking as to whom remains employed by Viridity.
    22 Apr, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, At the time they were a reasonable hug for Axion. I think they are a lesser "Mouse That Roared" today. Since we are mouse poop, compared to the playing field we aspire to, we need to keep everything in context.
    23 Apr, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    Phew... I thought I had missed something. The old Viridity news meant something around these parts once upon a time.
    23 Apr, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    At some point you can't ignore age. I'm sure TG didn't think this would be a decade plus long ride to the big time. In my dreams we would get someone who could both promote and develop markets for the PbC since the mousetrap isn't in question.

     

    Counter example in PLUG: None of us on this board thought too much of this company until recently but these quotes and the stock pps seems like their CEO gets it.

     

    "My top priority is to serve as Plug Power’s chief promoter. Advocating to customers, employees, suppliers, investors and government partners "

     

    "Upon my arrival at Plug Power in 2008 it was evident the company was a clear technology leader, but had not developed a market. In two years we’ve transitioned to a single focus..."

     

    source: http://bit.ly/1cyb0sn
    23 Apr, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    2008 to 2014 is not exactly a lightning quick turnaround.
    23 Apr, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough. I hope Axion looks back on these past few years the way PLUG holders do on 2012 and 2013.
    23 Apr, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    I agree wholeheartedly, but truth be told I think Axion has a much stronger and more diverse stockholder base than PLUG would ever have dreamed possible.
    23 Apr, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I can also agree to that, lol.
    23 Apr, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP

     

    Excellent work

     

    Very helpful

     

    All we need is what we have needed - some news of significance
    21 Apr, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    I'm working overtime to provide significant performance news too, but it takes time to change transmission shift points on the ePower tractor, swap out the rear-end gearing and run proper fuel economy tests at weight to find out what we really have. It won't be the work of months or years, but it will probably be the end of April before ePower can say anything definitive.
    21 Apr, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • KillaCycle
    , contributor
    Comments (548) | Send Message
     
    Unlike internal combustion engines, which respond to gearing changes quite well, electric motors have extremely broad torque bands and very broad efficiency bands and thus do not respond to such gear changes much at all. The motor will run slightly hotter delivering the same HP at lower RPM, and you will have the same, or perhaps a little worse, overall efficiency.

     

    You need to solve your generator power factor problem (among other things.) The output gearing change you are making will have no effect on the generator power factor.
    21 Apr, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    Electric motors can have very broad torque bands. As it happens the particular motor we are using hits its peak torque at 1,750 rpm. The Marathon engineers who are working with us to resolve system coordination issues disagree with your assessment, but they understand our system and know how our components work together.
    21 Apr, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Killa:: I understand your theory, but in this case it may not be true.

     

    First - they have experts (or at least application engineers) from the motor company involved who should be well versed in the theory - so I wouldn't contradict them.

     

    Second - I believe the motor they use is AC induction. AC induction motors run at different frequencies to get different speeds. Normally, the input voltage would be proportional to the input frequency. If for some reason, their motor controller can't ramp the voltage (or the motor can't handle the higher voltage) then they are using the induction motor at high frequency, but voltage that the motor needs at standard frequency. I can see why that would hurt efficiency.

     

    I've asked John this - but he's just a very knowledgeable lawyer. So I'm just guessing.
    21 Apr, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    I can confirm that we're using a 480-volt inverter duty AC induction motor from Marathon Electric that reaches the peak of its torque curve at 1,750 rpm. If you need more detail than that, you're out of my depth
    21 Apr, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • KCtwo
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Has the particular Mathathon engineer worked on a vehicle drive motor before? Vehicle drive motors is not one of Marathon motors core areas of expertise, you realize. Look at their website. No mention of vehicle drives anywhere. Not good. Especially for a start-up with limited in-house expertice.

     

    1750 RPM is simply the 60 Hz speed with ~3% slip. Typically, inverter-rated induction motors can operate at 100% HP at 130% to 150% of base RPM.

     

    When you trying to put together a prototype vehicle drive, you hire a company with vehicle drive experience, like Seimens or Panasonic or Mitsubishi or ?. Otherwise, you are reinventing the wheel, and delaying the development of your end product while _you_ are paying to educate the consulting company.
    22 Apr, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    KCtwo> Don't forget though that Cummins engineers are vehicle drive motor experts and they are scrutinizing under the hood too. No doubt their knowledge has some value to the Marathon guys.

     

    The ICE is Cummins, the drive motor is Marathon, but I forgot who makes the generator?
    22 Apr, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1klKrQ0
    Our third-generation drivetrain is based on an EPA compliant on-road Cummins 6.7L diesel engine that’s mated to a 120 kW generator from Marathon and provides the principal motive power. Electricity from the genset is routed through an AC Vector drive from Unico, along with supplemental boost power from an array of 56 PbC batteries from Axion Power, a unique lead-carbon asymmetric capacitor that offers extraordinary cycle-life and charge acceptance, and fed to a 150 hp Marathon drive motor that can be overrated to 380 hp for acceleration and climbing. A 5-speed automatic transmission from Allison and a suite of proprietary cruise control and drive-by-wire electronics round out the package. Our first drivetrain patent was issued by Mexico in December 2013 and efforts to secure global patent coverage are ongoing.
    22 Apr, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    KCtwo> I appreciate your appeal to conventionality and your conviction that ePower should stick to the proven path instead of the road less traveled. Over the last four years ePower has faced an endless litany of contrary advice from alleged experts who swear that its system configuration can't work for one good reason or another.

     

    Those attitudes don't change until the experts are given conclusive proof that the tractor on the road not only works, but works well. Then they become students who want to learn something new and help make a unique hybrid drivetrain work better.

     

    It's not what you know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for certain that just ain't so. (Mark Twain)
    22 Apr, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Your ability to smile and move along, in the face of critics that think they know more about your business than you (or other experts) do, is a good reminder to all. There is always time to be nice.
    22 Apr, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    Today's FINRA short sales were 19.85% of volume. It's on the low end of the historic normal range, but still within the range. What I'm waiting for with bated breath is single digits.
    21 Apr, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    John: re shorts. Today was slightly different than normal is that the change in buy % and short % was more correleted in magnitude than norma. I think it's due to the low volume.

     

    Buy % Short %
    53.21% 40.41%
    25.24% 19.85%

     

    This roughly 1/2 drop on both from yesterday to today doesn't occur often. Can't say if it's a sign of anything or just co-inky-dink, which I suspect unless I see it happen a lot more. Usually only the direction of move is strongly correlated, not magnitude.

     

    hardToLove
    21 Apr, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    Reported volume today was 436,920 shares. Is there a consensus that considering the OTC double count this represents approximately 225,000-250,000 shares actually trading hands? If there is evidence supporting some other theory than the double count that would be great to know. Otherwise I'll assume that most trades are counted twice as has been argued and thus that about a quarter million shares traded today.
    21 Apr, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    I think its safe to assume that only around 35 grand or so traded today; where as a stock like PLUG did over 300M dollars in trading. Too bad PbC doesn't have that sexy ring to it like "fuel cells" and "lithium batteries". Markets can be manic in both directions it seems.
    21 Apr, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    Thanks zooook. Looks like APC readers are in consensus that in our own experiences OTC stock trades normally do double print.

     

    I have not noticed it personally but I don't spend much watching the tape unless I'm trying to gauge support for making a trading decision. Not that often since I don't "day trade" but usually hold for weeks, months or years.
    22 Apr, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    et all, I need to ask a question: How do you insert a links to other sources in your comments?
    21 Apr, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    I just answered my own question.

     

    And now, the Axion Power Theme Song:

     

    http://bit.ly/QBeSEl

     

    This just proves that you can teach an old dog new tricks!
    21 Apr, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Here is a government that has been reading some reverse Robin Hood blogs.

     

    "Oklahoma House passes solar surcharge bill
    The surcharge is needed to recover some of the infrastructure costs to send excess electricity safely from distributed generation back to the grid. The representatives said utilities need the new surcharge to prevent customers who can’t afford the installation costs of distributed generation from subsidizing customers who have the systems installed."

     

    http://bit.ly/QBkYVf
    21 Apr, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    This bill was written and backed by ALEC. Alec is a well known opponent of renewable forms of energy. They were originally pushing for a $50-$100 surcharge for people who install wind or solar.

     

    http://bit.ly/1tuFtSS
    And you thought they couldn't find a way to charge you for the sunlight you collect....
    21 Apr, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    John
    Yep, that is needed to keep the grid available to all.
    It's going to take different financing than we've had.
    21 Apr, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Arizona has, at the request of the electric companies, approved buy power from retail customers at the wholesale rate. This allows the utilities to recover their costs of the grid. Before this, the retail customers were getting off setting their electric bills at the retail rate which did not take into account the cost of the utilities to be connected to the customer maintaining the grid.

     

    I believe it is a fair proposition. If you have solar off line, then there is no problem as you are not selling electricity back to the utility.
    21 Apr, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    Most utilities separate commercial rates into a demand charge and an energy charge. The demand charge is based on the peak power demand during a month, usually the highest 15 minute interval, while the energy charge is based on kWh used. They used a simpler combined rate for residential customers because they were presumed to all have similar energy use patterns.

     

    Solar is mucking up the comparability presumption for residential customers because the combined charge does not fairly compensate utilities for providing T&D resources to customers who avoid substantial demand charges, but demand full service on those pesky days when the sun doesn't shine.

     

    If I was running a utility I'd want customers with PV systems to pay based on my commercial tariff and sell me their excess power for the wholesale price. It really is the only fair answer, but it will be resisted mightily by the residential PV crowd.
    21 Apr, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    I notice that Jay Bowman put two YouTube videos up last week, but before you get excited, they're just screenviews of a monitor during, I presume, testing. Probably only of idle interest to engineers who really know what they're looking at.

     

    Not newsworthy, but here on the APC we need have no shame in exhausting every nook and cranny!

     

    http://bit.ly/1tuVjgi
    http://bit.ly/1tuVjgm
    21 Apr, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    A few more details on the UltraBattery....

     

    According to the modelling done in Gou's dissertation of 2012, under a constant draw during discharge, the UB will behave very much like any other lead-acid battery with carbon additives, but with a difference. In a lead-acid battery with carbon additives or carbon paste mixed into or pasted onto the lead of the negative electrode, the lead will charge and discharge first, and then the carbon will charge or discharge after the lead has done so. With the UltraBattery having its two negative electrodes connected in parallel, the capacitor negative electrode will discharge for a short time only at the beginning of the discharge event and then, the lead electrode will takeover the discharge function until it has no energy left, and then, at that time, the capacitor negative electrode will resume its discharge until it has no energy left, or until the discharge is stopped. So, in order to take full advantage of the capacitor negative electrode, the UltraBattery has to be discharged using a non-constant draw. It would seem to be that to carry out a non-constant discharge, control circuitry would be required to ensure that the lead negative electrode and the capacitor negative electrode are controlled to perform a discharge between them in a non-constant manner.

     

    The increased cycle life that is seen in the UB is due to two factors: Firstly, the capacitor negative electrode, by sharing the charge and the discharge events, is able to save the lead negative electrode from peak loads on both the charge and the discharge. Some reports state that the peak load on discharge is more stressful for any lead negative electrode than is the peak load on charge. Secondly, by saving the lead negative electrode from these peak loads on charge and discharge, the opportunity for sulfation to build up on the lead negative electrode is reduced, accordingly. The result is that both the peak load reduction and the sulfation reduction on the lead negative electrode serve to extend the cycle life of the UltraBattery

     

    On the question of how much more activated carbon can be utilized in the UB, three points come to mind. The first point is that if more activated carbon is added to the UB, then a reduction in capacity and a reduction in cold cranking capability will be the result. Secondly, increasing the ratio of the AC material over the amount of lead in the lead negative electrode results in a lower utilization of the NAM in the lead negative electrode and more uneven utilization distribution of the active material in the positve electrode as the end of the discharge gets closer. Thirdly, a higher ratio of activated carbon in the capacitor negative electrode over the amount of lead in the lead negative electrode will result in a noticeable amount of voltage drop under a pulse discharge situation, such as when cranking or providing power for acceleration.

     

    In Gou's dissertation, his model found a large voltage jump in the UB in the transition from a resting state to a charging state, which would indicate a high overpotential in the UB during charging. Such overpotential would necessarily result in an increase in the UltraBattery's temperature and it would lead to H2 production at higher charging rates. When the voltage of the UltraBattery would be at a low level, then H2 production would not present a real problem. But when the UltraBattery's voltage would reach higher levels, and it is being charged at a higher rate, then H2 production would start to be a problem.
    22 Apr, 03:26 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    393748,
    Thanks for that information.
    22 Apr, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    User, it sounds like ultrabattery, with an all-carbon electrode in parallel with a lead electrode, is really just a PbC in parallel with an AGM, but all contained in the same casing. I don't see how this is not a violation of Axion's patents.
    22 Apr, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    agreed, ngs.

     

    "We have continued to promote our two - battery solution for the stop/start market as well as proprietary activated carbon solutions for other markets that require high charge acceptance and long cycle life," Granville said. ["But more and more, our focus is moving toward providing our PbC batteries for the heavy duty Class 8 (18-wheeler) series hybrid retrofit solution implemented by ePower Engine Systems.] (April 1 2014 comments - http://prn.to/1podpRC)

     

    http://bit.ly/1podpRE (link to Charge Acceptance Solution White Paper on Axion website)

     

    "An inexpensive diode/switch is used to both isolate the lead–acid battery from the electrical system when not required for engine starts and allow in-line charging of both batteries via the standard alternator. This two-battery configuration is ideal as it combines both the robust cranking efficiency of the lead–acid battery and the high charge acceptance of the PbC® battery into a low cost MHPS [micro-hybrid power system] solution."
    22 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    Edmund & NGS -->> The question of patent infringment is worthy of consideration. I don't know enough about patent law to give a quick or summary answer on that. At this point though, we can say that there are differences between the UB and the PbC. Whether that amounts to anything of any legal consequence is another question.
    22 Apr, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I have previously made efforts to evaluate Axion patents (US 6466429 B1, et al.) vs CSIRO patents (US 7923151 B2, et al.)

     

    The CSIRO patent which claims a "capacitor electrode" has a priority date (as per google) in 2003.

     

    This is about the time in which variably Axion, C and T Co., Mega-C, and numerous other "entities", were involved in "negotiations" re' IP/technologies/licensing related to the activated carbon-containing "Electric double layer capacitor" patent, which has a priority date in 2001 (as per google). On Dec 16, 2005, the Effective Date, "any and all interests of the Estate, Mega-C or Mega-C Ontario in the Technology, shares of Mega C Tech, or physical assets under Axion, Axion Ontario, or C&T’s control [were] transferred to Axion."

     

    It is all fairly dense reading, using lots of words I don't. So I won't.

     

    Suffice to say that the all-too-familiar Figure that Furukawa et al. begin many of their presentations with, showing a UB negative electrode being half-LAB-half-PbC, suggests there may come a time when such "negotiations" could begin again.
    22 Apr, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    If the PbC carbon electrode patent has a priority date in 2001, I guess that means we have seven years' worth of patent protection left. Maybe they can sell some batteries before then.
    22 Apr, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Well it won't be six months. So at least we have a few years to watch.

     

    BTW, When is the DD date?
    22 Apr, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (196) | Send Message
     
    I have issues with the current situation of AXPW investors. My concerns stem from two paragraphs in the last conference call regarding TG looking forward to updating investors in Q1 (44 days) I initially took this to mean that we can expect sales news before 44 days and I think a lot of investors thought this too. On reflection and reading the transcripts again a few times I think it is likely that TG wants to announce something at the next CC conference or night before.

     

    So the problem I have is investors will be becoming more and more nervous as the 44 days click by without sales announcement. Here is the beefiest of the two paragraphs...

     

    "Well I am going to mention here in my closing remarks than it’s a short 44 days to the next call. And we’re looking forward to that call because we’re looking forward to update everybody on how that is going and progress that we’re making." and the second "The next call will be in a short 44 days from now. We’re happy with that timeframe because it will allow us to update you on the fast moving market initiatives that we have embarked upon."

     

    You know I still don't know what he means. Sales before Q1, announcement at CC. Pop quiz, who is expecting what?
    22 Apr, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    I'm expecting ePower to have definitive hauling capacity and fuel economy figures for its third-generation series hybrid drivetrain and hoping for a maiden voyage with the day cab.

     

    The fascinating thing about ePower's drivetrain is that it's chassis agnostic and shouldn't care whether it's installed in a 25,000 pound sleeper cab chassis or a 20,000 pound day cab chassis. The fuel economy and maximum Gross Combined Vehicle Weight of both tractors should be the same.
    22 Apr, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Confirmed sales before the next CC are certainly possible, but to stave off disappointment I'm taking a conservative view of the wording and assuming that there may be none. I suspect TG was careful with his wording here because he (and we) all know that for whatever reasons, any promises of sales can turn out to be untrue. Hence when he says he'll "update" us, it may just be on the progress of the Bysolar installation and perhaps some hint of how much interest the company is getting in all the tenders they'll have been applying for, and an update on ePower progress.

     

    It can certainly be argued that there was more behind his words this time than in previous CC's, however.

     

    I thought it best to take the most pessimistic view so that I could see if it affected the thesis of my investment in Axion. It hasn't; 20K more shares bought yesterday.
    22 Apr, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Sohkubo,
    Since TG was answering a question concerning an update on the "substantial sale" mentioned three months earlier, I took his answer to mean he will update us in 44 days on the "substantial sale" mentioned in the previous cc. But I really like your conservative approach. Gets to the meat of the matter. Is Axion a good investment knowing what we presently know about trains, trucks, and PowerCubes?
    22 Apr, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    "You know I still don't know what he means."

     

    dance> This applies for me to a great deal of what TG says. His style of communication is very vague IMO. Not at all unlike a lot of CEOs (and politicians).

     

    He tends to never promise anything while implying he is promising or at least strongly predicting. When it doesn't materialize he ignores it until asked and then the "color" tends to leave us scratching our heads rather than have a clear understanding of what's going on.

     

    I've resigned myself that it's impossible to know the 'when' for Axion so as long as the 'what' is going well (technology) that is what really counts.
    22 Apr, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Retired:: TGs style seems to match his own personal knowledge. That is, people ask him when sales will happen, he knows that lots of people are serious about buying but haven't made a purchase decision, so by definition his answer must be vague since he doesn't know either.
    22 Apr, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    At my most hopeful, I am expecting actual sales to be announced.
    More likely and just as acceptable, I am expecting an agreement that will produce multiple sales over time to be announced, something better than Rosewater, perhaps a solar street lighting contract.
    Somewhat less acceptable but only slightly less likely, I am expecting a mere update on something he will finally be able to speak publicly about, something of material significance in the "sales path" genre.
    22 Apr, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1803) | Send Message
     
    If no sales, at minimum I would accept a meaningful update to the NSC project and how close to money that is. I'd give 25% chance of an auto update and a 50/50 for a small PC sale.
    22 Apr, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    John, I hadn't really thought about the chassis-agnostic consideration amidst all the custom work that is being done. That's really good to hear you say.
    22 Apr, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • maplecorner
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I really like your thought processes and attitude.
    22 Apr, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    dance: My take was very clearly that he meant he'd have an update for us during the call, not before. However, I think he was clearly referring to the 6 month promise so, if during the call he does not have an announcement about a sale then that would mean he did not live up to his promise.

     

    JP: You seem to be really going out on a limb there. Are you saying that all the components of the ePower system will be playing nicely with each other by mid-May?
    22 Apr, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    I'm expecting ePower to have definitive hauling capacity and fuel economy figures for its third-generation series hybrid drivetrain by mid-May and hoping for a maiden voyage with the day cab.
    22 Apr, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Your making me smile!

     

    ;-))
    22 Apr, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    04/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 270, MaxTrSz: 40001, Vol: 436920, AvTrSz: 6620
    Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1435
    # Buys, Shares: 21 110290, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1464
    # Sells, Shares: 45 326630, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1426
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.96 (25.24% "buys"), DlyShts 86720 (19.85%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.55%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1049 vs. $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884 and $0.0865 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1148 vs. $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397 and $0.1468 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 7.61%, 1.35%, 4.29%, -52.38% and -76.61% respectively. Price spread today was 7.14% vs. 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40% and 7.78% on prior days.

     

    The high of the day was one trade, at the open, of 1.5K shares for $0.1500 ...

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 66 trades, 9.09%. These 121,001 shares were 27.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1444. 2 of these ...

     

    The other 60 trades, 90.91% of the day's trades, traded 315,919 shares, 72.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1428. 19 trades ...

     

    We had a “double dip” weakening today, seen in the trading breakdown by time ...

     

    Three days ago I suggested we still had some more movement down in our near-term future. That's played out, although I really think it's down within a range so far – not a big drop. With today's low volume ...

     

    Nothing yet suggests that we won't go lower. Some traditional and non-traditional things continue to lean towards lower, but not as strongly or consistently as I would like in order to have conviction in that assessment.

     

    Coming off breaking the string of four consecutive lower lows with yesterday's 1/100th penny improvement, we continued that today ...

     

    Unfortunately, not only was the close lower, but it was just off the low of $0.14 at $0.1402. Since the close is deemed important I thought it deserved mention. It was down -3.31% from yesterday's $0.1450. Volume was lower – substantially. That might just be folks haven't all come back from the holiday weekend though?

     

    This particular combination of open and close produced a “gravestone doji”, supposedly a reversal indicator. With yesterday being an up day, this would suggest a down move coming. But Bulkowski points out that it only produces a reversal only 51% of the time, so it really is random. Also, it can result in a reversal to the upside. Since we've been in a down trend and reliability is near random, we're as likely to see a bounce up as a move down if we consider this in isolation.

     

    The high today, a single 1.5K trade at the open, exactly touched what I suspected would be resistance and was rejected. If we discount that one trade, we didn't even touch resistance yet. But one day on the first test ...

     

    Our VWAP of $0.1435 is slightly above the 50-day SMA of $0.1433. We've closed below it two of the last three days and barely above it Thursday, 4/17.

     

    Short percentage behaved normally but for having an unusual trait today – buy percentage dropped roughly half and daily short dropped about the same amount. This is unusual ...

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1488) | Send Message
     
    Regarding the "gravestone doji" referenced by Dr. Love above:

     

    From Investopedia: "A gravestone doji pattern is a common reversal pattern used by traders to suggest that a bullish rally or trend is about to reverse. ****It can also be found at the end of a downtrend, but this version is much more rare.****"

     

    The placement of the Doji occurred at the *end* of a sell-off, which is much more rare according to the above. Thus, I read this as a trend reversal to the upside. Since Axion was up almost 8% today (the day after the Gravestone-Doji), that seems to be correct.... so far....
    22 Apr, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: "Also, it can result in a reversal to the upside. Since we've been in a down trend and reliability is near random, we're as likely to see a bounce up as a move down if we consider this in isolation."

     

    What's different from what I stated, other than "rarity"?

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1488) | Send Message
     
    <<<<What's different from what I stated, other than "rarity"?>>>>

     

    Absolutely nothing... I couldn't remember what a "gravestone doji" meant, so I researched it and highlighted my findings above. In no way was I implying disagreement with your analysis above... just attempting to reinforce it, I guess...
    22 Apr, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: Oh! Sorry for confusion. I thought you might be pointing out something I overlooked. I try to be thorough, but I never seem to get comfortable that I really made it that far, so I'm not to proud to ask.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    i don't like candles for penny stocks normally unless i'm looking at 5min bars.
    24 Apr, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    ...and so it goes...(continues)

     

    Elon Musk's Sacramento Pay Pals
    Democrats carve out another tax break for the billionaire.

     

    http://bit.ly/1pocErT

     

    "Upon his request, Democrats who dominate the legislature are moving to exempt SpaceX and other space-travel companies from California's personal property tax. According to SpaceX, personal property "tax liabilities represent a devastating cost for this important California industry." Yes, and all other California businesses that don't have Mr. Musk as their CEO.
    Mr. Musk already benefits from disparate tax treatment. For instance, California provides a $2,500 rebate for high-rollers who buy electric cars. And last year the legislature extended various fees to keep the subsidies flowing after electric car makers like Mr. Musk's Tesla complained that a rebate reduction could hurt their business. Don't forget the array of government subsidies powering solar companies like Mr. Musk's SolarCity."
    22 Apr, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    "A stock is not just a ticker symbol or an electronic blip; it is an ownership interest in an actual business, with the underlying value that does depend on its share price."
    Benjamin Graham

     

    (repost)
    22 Apr, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    This is the age of Crony Capitalism. I have a tough time changing my mindset to think that a stock supported by the whims of government is lower risk than one whose business model does not need direct government support to be viable.
    22 Apr, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    I dare say we've been in in the "age" of Crony Capitalism for quite a while! :-)

     

    I don't know what they call in China, but it's pretty much universal in my opinion ...
    22 Apr, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Shoot WTB: We invented it. Check back in the early part of the last century to see how we got the railroads, U.S. Steel, the big banks (J.P. Morgan), ...

     

    Their best stroke was getting a Federal Reserve instituted while most of congress was on holiday (Christmas IIRC), which would not have happened if the full congress was present.

     

    Money and power have always held sway, ameliorated only by people subject to them believing in them. The *very* wealthy movers and shakers have generally always believed they were for "those other folks".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I guess I read history a bit differently, HTL.

     

    "We" invented fairness. "We" invented equality. "We" claimed inalienable rights. To preserve these ideals, "We" invented limited government. Now the government tells us what it fair, what is equal, who should be the winners, and what rights we have.

     

    There have been many very wealthy people in the history of the world who have been content with doing well and good both. Many live peacefully amongst us now, including some of you.

     

    Not so with people whose first lust is for power, be it the power of the State or Church as history teaches. While those in power typically have wealth and live in luxury, it is often only a consequence of their power to take the people's property or engage in cronyism. It is a fact that a great percentage of those who are given power will abuse it. Hence "We" invented the strong box of our Constitution; sadly, miserably sadly, they have escaped and wreak havoc on our inalienable rights once again.
    22 Apr, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: I agree. But after we invented all those good things, what happened is what you described.

     

    Both scenarios are correct. Even during the invention of those good things, we had Hamilton arguing for the bankers, so power and influence was trying to exert itself even then.

     

    Over time it gained control.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1488) | Send Message
     
    @Edmund and Love: One of the things my father taught me early was: "the more things change, the more they stay the same"

     

    I don't think human behavior (and capitalism) is any different now that a century or two ago... just the names and faces change...
    22 Apr, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    The important argument was over Federalism. Everything else flowed from that topic.

     

    We fought a war over the topic, and the Federalists won. I guess we either get over it, or get ready for another war.
    22 Apr, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    2 people I pay attention to ...

     

    Charlie Rose interviewed David Brooks last night ... thought it was excellent.

     

    covers a wide range of stuff from moral philosophy, resume v. eulogy, passion v. purpose, courses he co-teaches at Yale (one of the most popular one), periodically reinventing yourself as a columnist, and Russia/Putin/Ukraine.

     

    about the 17 minute mark (of about30) he talks briefly about freedom being the easy part ... it's the establishing political order and "just authority and just order: that's the hard part and truly leads to freedom, and why the Constitution was truly the genius.

     

    http://bit.ly/1poXrqw

     

    Here's the column referenced in that clip:
    http://nyti.ms/1poXrqz

     

    the Horowitz interview in the 2nd half hour was pretty interesting as well.

     

    Horowitz was involved with Netscape, has some good stories, and also a good historical view and current view of what's happening with startups and what it takes for someone to beat the odds and make it work ... it's hard, but if you ever think about working for one of them it might help to be able to spot the signs of the potential winner.
    22 Apr, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Bankers nor capitalists are the problem in terms of control, government is the real axis of power. This is captured well in Netflix's House of Cards where Kevin Spacey's character epitomises the nexus of power. Surely capitalists will garner power, but in our democratic society real power always moves to government and this is why it is so important to limit government, on all levels.
    22 Apr, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1441) | Send Message
     
    Well at this rate JP is almost surely going to get his anemic volume indicator today.
    22 Apr, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    I've seen days like this before.

     

    http://bit.ly/1poi5XN
    22 Apr, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    You mentioned that you had expectations of Axion releasing a couple updated registration reports yesterday. Since they did not appear to do so is there a timeline that we should anticipate that to happen?

     

    Thanks.
    22 Apr, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    They ought to be filed pretty quickly but I don't have any particular date expectations.
    22 Apr, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "... expectations of Axion releasing a couple updated registration reports ...."

     

    IMO May 1 at the earliest.
    22 Apr, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    John, one of my favourite movies right there. That video unfortunately lacks the Morricone soundtrack and cuts off before the last words:

     

    "You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: those with loaded guns and those who dig."

     

    I'm not sure which kind of people the long-term Axionistas are - it seems to apply quite well to both!
    22 Apr, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357> To add a little more color, when a company has more than one registration statement for a deal, the best practice is to file one amendment, respond to any comments from the SEC staff, and then file the additional amendments when the first clears comments.

     

    While there's no way to know in advance whether the staff will review a particular filing or how long a review might take, I'd be willing to bet that the staff will clear the post-effective amendment quickly.

     

    Companies that have only been in the system for a few year get reviewed often. By the time a company has a decade of reporting under its belt, full reviews become something of a rarity that you only have to endure once every three or four years.
    23 Apr, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Thanks for the additional explanation.
    23 Apr, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like a familiar app.

     

    Lithium Ion SuperPolymer(R)2.0 Reduces Expensive Diesel Fuel for Operation in Remote Locations

     

    http://bit.ly/1pohmWm
    22 Apr, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    Brookville (PA) Equipment Company, who I believe supplied the dynamic brakes for the original NS-999, has a big mining division. I think it's accurate to say they're more successful in mining that in locomotives.

     

    Anywho, their mining page mentions 3 different battery operated vehicles.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jvYLiB

     

    Related:

     

    Brookville’s new mining line includes its largest underground loco

     

    Last year Brookville Equipment Corp. expanded its range of underground mining locomotives, including the largest it has ever made, for a Mexican copper mine.

     

    Posted: Friday , 17 Jan 2014
    BROOKVILLE, PA -

     

    http://bit.ly/1jvYLiG

     

    They also have a streetcar division
    http://bit.ly/1jvYMTD

     

    that won a contract in Dallas that I believe delivers this year which is mostly electrified, but has portions where they are not

     

    (see recent light right discussion).

     

    BROOKVILLE AWARDED CONTRACT TO MANUFACTURE FIRST AMERICAN DESIGNED AND PRODUCED OFF-WIRE CAPABLE MODERN STREETCARS FOR CITY OF DALLAS
    3/8/2013

     

    http://bit.ly/10QFX6e

     

    "BROOKVILLE Liberty Modern Streetcars will utilize an innovative battery energy storage system (ESS) to power the car’s four traction motors when off-wire. Approximately one mile of the 1.6-mile track will require ESS power, allowing the LRV to cross the city’s Houston Street Viaduct over the Trinity River without the use of catenary."

     

    Dr. Buiel was involved in their battery selection:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Apr, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Ice or Molten Salt, Not Batteries, to Store Energy

     

    http://nyti.ms/1jvldZm
    22 Apr, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    ARCA left the sell side early after dropping 5K shares it looks like.

     

    ATDF has 125K @ $0.149 (again), followed by NITE 55K at $0.15.

     

    WABR still trying to drop shares, currently offering the usual 5K now at $0.148.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    ARCA returns 11:32 with 7K @ $0.145 offer, undercutting WABR's $0.148.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    Wrightspeed blub ... not exactly a contract announcement :-)

     

    Interesting phrasing on benefits though ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1mxn4mV

     

    "Ratto's trucks will be using the Route HD - a solution that Wrightspeed recently introduced. It is a plug-in electric powertrain that uses an on-board turbine generator to charge the battery as needed. It uses CNG, LNG, diesel or landfill gases and burns cleaner per kilowatt-hour than the average mix of U.S. electrical power plants, according to Wrightspeed.

     

    "The Route HD was engineered for the refuse and recycling truck application, where it can reduce fuel spend by $35,000 per year and dramatically reduce noise pollution," says Ian Wright, Wrightspeed's founder and CEO."

     

    Since my garbage is picked up at 6AM, I'm all in favor of reduced noise pollution!
    22 Apr, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Our service switched to CNG diesels last year and that alone made a huge difference in the noise level.

     

    Amazing what replacing an "explosion" within cylinders with a "burn" within cylinders will do for noise levels.

     

    Depending on muffling, the (CPST) turbine may or may not be quieter. The normal industrial installations are 60(?) db at ... 100 feet? I forget the distance, but it's not real loud and not real quiet.

     

    I assume on a truck they wouldn't be adding much for noise suppression, so it should run about that level I guess. But it is closer to a "white noise" whine, so that's likely an improvement.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    Another view of the costs:

     

    • An average garbage truck travels 25,000 miles annually, gets less than 3 miles per gallon, and uses approximately 8,600 gallons of fuel each year.

     

    http://bit.ly/JRf0gb

     

    I guess they're assuming the trucks will use landfill gas that would otherwise be wasted.
    22 Apr, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    John: That's a very large possibility. Over the last several years CPST units have been running on hog farm waste pond generated gas, landfill gas etc in several places around the world.

     

    This particular application for energy capture and use is in the very early stages of adoption.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Waste Management is a landfill gas leader with over 50 fueling stations and the largest CNG fleet around.
    http://bit.ly/1gPUshr

     

    http://bit.ly/1gPUshv
    < "The Milam Renewable Natural Gas Facility will be the company’s third plant to convert landfill gas to natural gas. In California, Waste Management has collaborated in the world’s largest plant to convert landfill gas to ultra-low-carbon liquefied natural gas (LNG). The greenhouse gas emissions associated with this fuel are more than 80 percent lower than those of diesel. It’s the cleanest fuel available for heavy-duty trucks today. The facility produces 13,000 gallons of LNG per day and helps to power the company’s fleet in California. In Ohio, the company processes about 3,000 SCFM of landfill gas and delivers it to a natural gas pipeline.

     

    Pabor said that there are now 134 projects on Waste Management landfills that use landfill gas to generate electricity, produce renewable gas, or displace fossil fuel. “We also have partnered with four cities and counties to install landfill-gas-to-energy plants on public landfills,” he said. “Altogether, these projects put enough landfill gas to work to produce the equivalent of more than 680 megawatts of power capacity, enough to power almost half a million homes, and displace the equivalent of more than 2.5 million tons of coal per year.”>
    22 Apr, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Golly Froggey! He left out an import benefit: "... and increase revenues and profits from what used to be a 100% cost and compliance issue".

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    "Siemens and BAIC join forces to produce high efficient electric powertrain systems for NEVs

     

    Beijing, 2014-Apr-20
    Siemens and BAIC will form joint venture

     

    "Beijing Siemens Automotive E-Drive System Co., Ltd." shall produce high efficient motors and inverters for hybrid and battery electric vehicles

     

    Prototype and small volume production starts in 2014, new production facility for mass production will follow in 2015, with planned capacity of more than 100,000 units per year
    JV supports Chinese government's plans to safeguard higher environmental standards"

     

    http://sie.ag/1jvTiIN

     

    Important? Who knows. Can't ignore that Chinese market though ...

     

    to wit ...

     

    Musk Says Tesla Will Make Cars in China in Next 3-4 Years
    By Bloomberg News Apr 22, 2014

     

    http://bloom.bg/1mrUErL

     

    To wit, too wit, or to whit :-) http://bit.ly/1jvTgjW
    22 Apr, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    ARCA keeping us off balance today. Not doing hit & run and go away for a while. Staying in, reducing offers every once in a while to try and get rid of some.

     

    NITE & WABR not yet getting really competitive on the offer yet, but they have made a couple moves to stay close to ARCA.

     

    CANT just bid above NITE, reducing b/a spread to 2/10ths from 3/10ths, so that ought to get the misers on one side or the other moving ... unless they're going for 1/100th of a penny today.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2737) | Send Message
     
    CANT and MAXM both have 50k share bids at .142. Haven't seen those guys very active recently, so the big coincidence maybe suggests one buyer or two connected ones. But hey, just a guess.

     

    Oh, and I forgot, MAXM was the PIPE placement agent. Wonder what's going on...
    22 Apr, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yeah, MAXM came in and joined CANT in about 3 minutes. They were in briefly off and on, *infrequently*, several times since the PIPE was done.

     

    I think it was JP that mentioned they also had a brokerage? If so it could be just someone there that's thinking for $0.142 they could take a small position.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2737) | Send Message
     
    The 125k share ask (started at 150k shares yesterday) at .149 just got the remaining shares, 93,800, taken out.

     

    Edit: and a lot of shares just traded at .15. Nice to see some strong buying. Some decent sized blocks trading, too.

     

    Edit edit: then ARCA and WABR just came in at .149, so maybe the PIPErs aren't quite down to zero yet. Or maybe they are, and these guys just represent normal trading. We'll see...
    22 Apr, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    MrI: and someone wanted to make sure we closed above resistance. Last two trades, after $0.1425-$0.145 trading a lot of shares heading towards the close, had two trades at 15:56, 10K and the last 200 shares, EDIT 1st was $0.1509 not both at $0.151.

     

    Several times during the day $0.15/$0.151 traded and each time price was forced back.

     

    But it'll look just dandy on the charts as we see good volume, ~942K, and a close at the high.

     

    ARCA did their best to do a late-day keep us down with a $0.145 offer of 9K at 15:54 after being away since 14:40.

     

    I guess they didn't know someone was waiting 'till the last few minutes to make a buy at market.

     

    Buy percentage looks about 63%, so daily shorts should be high today.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2737) | Send Message
     
    HTL, based on Level 2, ARCA was not a big factor today. The big seller was thru ATDF. Heavy and clumsy late in the day---kept walking down their offer. A new offer would pop up when the previous one was all gone. Guessing that was mostly retail, based on the awkwardness, but who knows.

     

    Overall, a good day for longs. Up on improved volume. Ended with a lot of shares still bid at >=14, so likely have some support built-in for tomorrow. Encouraging.

     

    OT: I'd like to know what the 600k shares short does when the PIPEnd occurs. Those sorts came in with the PIPErs so I'd think they'll exit with them, too.
    22 Apr, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    I think we get a report on short position ... let me check ... yep Friday.

     

    As to ATDF, the offers get stacked up all day long. As best offer gets taken or removed I see the prior best order *usually* pop up.

     

    Ditto on the bids, but not quite as consistent.

     

    I've been thinking it's part of a market-making strategy since they almost always improve the current b/a by 1/100th and I see they leave the others in place.

     

    My take is that ATDF "scalps" on both sides selling (and possibly shorting) from the offer and covering on the bid.

     

    I'll never know though.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2737) | Send Message
     
    The ATDF activity I'm referring to is different. 150k shares offered at .149 yesterday, 25k taken out then, then the 125k balance reappears today, eventually gets taken out, leaving about 90k at .151, which gets chipped away at, then they begin the walkdown with either the remainder or additional shares.

     

    To me, that is not connected with the standard ATDF 10k shares 1/100 of a cent inside the bid and ask. That steady activity doesn't seem to materially affect the price either way anytime over the many months we've seen it, so has never been a concern. Hardly even notice it any more.
    22 Apr, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Oh Yep. No argument on the 150K and the remainder. I don't spend much time watching or thinking about what I suspect is "normal" investor/trader trading from ATDF, so I often miss implications that might be associated with that.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Could the 9k have been me? I sold my trading block of 9000 @.145 on an AON order (invisible to market). It executed thus in my TDAmeritrade acct:
    04/22/2014 14:42:15 ET Sold 9000 AXPW @ 0.145
    However given the double print, could what you saw at a later time be the 2nd "print" of my trade?
    22 Apr, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: No way to tell for sure. ARCA has had 9K, 7k, 5K orders very commonly. But they left the market at 14:40, or before, and didn't return on the offer until 15:54 or slightly before. EDIT: But they could still be making trades unseen.

     

    Most of the time I can't see which MM was involved because I have other things I have to watch too - I just see that a trade has gone off or the b/a has changed and try and log as much as I can.

     

    Two 9K trades went at $0.1450, one at 14:42:16 (could be slippage in the seconds) and the other 15:55:30.

     

    With today's action I woulda thunk the MM would not sell for the same price he bought for - it looks like he could've gotten more. There were a lot of buys and sells at higher prices after the 14:42. Maybe he just wanted to stay 100% market-neutral?

     

    Also, his disposition could've broken it into smaller chunks, or combined with other chunks, and the second 9K might be totally unrelated.

     

    Starting in that same minute, and going through 14:48, was the 1 9K "sell" and then there were 5 "buys" from $0.1479 to $0.1490. Yours could've been buried right in that ~45.1K shares.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    "Norfolk Southern Corporation will present its first-quarter 2014 earnings at 8:45 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 23, 2014, via teleconference and live Internet webcast. The company will issue its earnings results at 8 a.m. EDT on April 23."

     

    http://bit.ly/1jw5lWs

     

    Capital spending is usually only discussed (with slides) in the 4th quarter report, and the analyst questions have for the last year or so been largely about coal, intermodal, and the global economy, so I doubt there will be anything directly of interest to an AXPW stockholder.

     

    Being a big boy S&P company with lots of analyst coverage, they don't take calls from individual investors ...
    22 Apr, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2737) | Send Message
     
    but I'd bet you'd love to ask them about the 999/OTR, wtb...
    22 Apr, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    The right tool for the job.

     

    Hybrid Cars Significantly More Fuel-Efficient In India & China Than US

     

    http://bit.ly/1jw7LV0
    22 Apr, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    iindelco, thanks for the great article on hybrids in India and China. I have spent zero time on any car apps and have never even heard of power-split, which seems to be a pseudo-gen-set hybridization? Pretty great results.

     

    The link above contains a picture of smog in some city in China. Absolutely horrific.
    22 Apr, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, Here's a "How Stuff Works" article on the power split drive. It's a good article.

     

    How Hybrid Cars Work

     

    The Power Split Device

     

    http://bit.ly/1poG60Q

     

    Yes, China has big air quality problems in many areas.
    22 Apr, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    Chaowei Power : joins Moll for automotive batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/1jwbTV5
    22 Apr, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1488) | Send Message
     
    Axion up over 7% today on "stronger-ish" volume. I added today, since I think the near-term bottom is in. More powder available if we get a stronger confirming move throughout the week....

     

    Edit: very strong buying after 3pm according to the charts... wonder if something is afoot?
    22 Apr, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Blazar
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    I came across a presentation from Arotech Corporation devoted to an iron flow battery for grid storage that uses iron ferrocyanide chemistry which they claim to have invented and are trying to patent and develop commercially. The presentation can be seen at http://bit.ly/1pp0SgW

     

    Slide 6 of the presentation has a comparison of flow and non-flow batteries for grid storage which utilize various chemistries. One of the non-flow battery chemistries is advanced lead acid and the example company named is none other than Axion. That chemistry is rated highly for plant cost, running cost, and efficiency while it is given a low rating for cycle life. The competitive disadvantages are said to be "limited cycle life" and "lead disposal."

     

    Overall Axion's battery chemistry appears to compare well with the other chemistries listed. Of course the iron flow battery is supposed to be the best, but at present it appears that it is only at the stage of lab testing.
    22 Apr, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30170) | Send Message
     
    The graph on slide six has more errors than I can count. Only hucksters talk about lead disposal problems since well over 98% lead-acid batteries are recycled. Anybody who knows anything about the PbC also knows that it's cycle life and safety are extraordinary.

     

    Putting aside the blatant errors, let's talk about batteries in general.

     

    Innovations in battery chemistry and architecture typically take a decade to progress from the laboratory bench to the first commercial product. Then they take another decade to mature.

     

    The idea that there is such a thing as a "best" battery is a myth because different applications require different energy and power characteristics. The easiest way to think about storage applications is to think in terms of the planned discharge duration.

     

    The most valuable storage devices charge and discharge in seconds. The second most valuable storage devices charge and discharge in minutes. The least valuable storage devices charge and discharge in hours.

     

    All classes of flow batteries are in the hours category and they're a difficult economic proposition because they typically can't generate more than one revenue opportunity per day while faster devices like the PbC and supercapacitors can generate tens, hundreds or even thousands of revenue opportunities per day.
    22 Apr, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Blazar
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    John, thank you for the information.
    22 Apr, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    How I Went to an Energy Storage Conference and a Data Analytics Session Broke Out

     

    http://bit.ly/1pp66Jr
    22 Apr, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow the 23rd will be the halfway point in the 44 day time frame when TG is going to "update" us on the fast moving market initiates that they have embarked upon!

     

    What's that sound I hear off in the distance? Is that a train whistle? Is the train fixin to leave the station? I think tomorrow is the day everyone should start loading up on these last few cheap shares!

     

    FWIW: I believe in the "self fulfilling prophecy" stuff!
    22 Apr, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    I haven't tracked this in quite some time, but right now 1374 people/entities receive email alerts from Seeking Alpha.

     

    As opposed to just 357 Axion Power Concentrator "Followers."

     

    Not sure how to imply what this means, except to consider that there are possibly over 1000 lurkers out there who are not following the APCs day-to-day.

     

    I can't blame them, I'm on the road, and it's taken me hours to catch up. But when New Castle news hits the email circuit...Axionistas should have an advantage in timing what to do.
    23 Apr, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    1374 alerters huh? Dang similar to ZBB lurker #s as well. Hopefully we can get a huge spike like ZBB did then. Prior to this year Axion and ZBB had shown high correlation in trading. They both have been down 80% over past 2+ years. ZBB though somehow went from 40 cents to $4+ bucks. In that bizarro world Axion could still break a buck someday soon (only problem is trying to justify the market cap that implies =)
    23 Apr, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Anyone listen in on the NS CC (just wrapping up, I believe)?
    23 Apr, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I did - nothing of interest - healthy business - no pictures or mentions of the NS999.
    23 Apr, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    “Exceptional Step Forward” For Energy Storage In New York City

     

    "New York City’s Metropolitan Transit Authority is one of the largest single users of energy in the US, and today the agency is officially launching a next-generation energy storage system that is bound to turn heads. MTA has installed three CellCube vanadium flow batteries on the 25th floor setback of its lower Manhattan headquarters to demonstrate how small footprint, high volume on site energy storage systems can shave down peak electricity use and turn a “smart” building into a brilliant one."

     

    http://bit.ly/QEFoN5
    23 Apr, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    So, they will be able to cycle once or twice a day (vs zero before, I guess). "Brilliant"? How about a system that can cycle countless times a day and make them serious money?

     

    Its classic guvmint doublespeak. "Brilliant" really means stupid, and "Stupid" really means brilliant...

     

    LOL, except the powers that be are probably too busy thinking they are brilliant to realize they are really stupid.
    23 Apr, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    No mention in the article what "significant energy" is, and no reference comparison to what the building uses during work hours. If it stores enough energy to power the entire 25th floor for 1 hour, is that significant?
    23 Apr, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    UQM Technologies and Kinetics Drive Solutions collaborate on electric drive systems for all-electric commercial vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/QEGaK8
    23 Apr, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    I heard an interesting radio spot about the Tesla Gigafactory yesterday. Apparently San Antonio is one of many cities contending for the factory. Sounds like Reno, Tucson, and San Antonio are the current favorites.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gPD7oY
    23 Apr, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Not Tucson, we have enough problems in Arizona!
    23 Apr, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    I went to college in Tucson. Nice city.
    24 Apr, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    I hear Phoenix is good for Li Ion. :)
    24 Apr, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    2014 SAE Show Future Tech. Roundup

     

    CPT SpeedStart Mild 48-Volt Hybrid

     

    "Expect to see it on the road within a few years, probably first with a German automaker."

     

    http://bit.ly/1iL3Dnk
    23 Apr, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    ii, I think the Kia 48v design will also use the CPT system. So, if they are predicting one from a German automaker, that could be at least two cars employing that system in 2015. On a side note, it was interesting to see the name of my former employer on the hood of that D-EGR test vehicle.
    23 Apr, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9460) | Send Message
     
    NGS, Yes, it used an unidentified supplier electric motor for boost along with a CPT/Valeo electric supercharger. This application is for a CPT Speed Start unit.

     

    http://www.cpowert.com

     

    http://bit.ly/QENXaQ
    23 Apr, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    Here is a new press release on the 48-volt CPT system employed in the ALBAC LC Superhybrid concept. It talks a lot about the lead-carbon batteries being able to "tolerate relentless charging and discharging" in hybrid vehicle applications. No indication of who makes the batteries, though.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZNy4Ql

     

    Picture 4 at the very end shows the batteries. It does not appear to have an Axion logo.

     

    Update: Duh! why don't I just read the caption. They are "Exide Orbital Advanced Lead-Carbon" batteries. Mystery solved. Sorry, Axion, no soup for you!
    23 Apr, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    The very last comment states "Exide Orbital advanced lead-carbon batteries".
    23 Apr, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    NGS:: In the article, they sometimes mention 2015, and they sometime mention "within a few years".

     

    I'd bet the 48V system won't be production available until the 2016 model year at the earliest. Probably the 2017 model year in late 2016.

     

    If its in the 2017 model year, we will start hearing about it in a serious way about a year to 18 months from now as supplier arrangements start to be negotiated and signed between all the parties.
    23 Apr, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "Picture 4 at the very end shows the batteries. It does not appear to have an Axion logo. "

     

    Text below the pic says it all.
    "Pic 4 -- 12V and 48V LC Super Hybrid both feature Exide Orbital advanced lead-carbon batteries
    23 Apr, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    NGS, it's not new; April 23rd, yes, but 2013, not 2014.
    23 Apr, 11:46 AM