Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (333)
Track new comments
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Thanks APH for providing these concentrators for us.

     

    Hopefully yesterday's strengthening close is a signal for a new run.
    8 May 2014, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Close but no cigar.

     

    Congrats to jveal for being the top dog on draft day.
    8 May 2014, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    I wanted to post this TFH stuff from the 5/7 EOD post which will be up later.

     

    Some very odd trading occurred today. At 15:09 it appeared someone, based at PUMA (thanks Josh!) jacked the bid up from $0.139 to $0.1399, where they stopped because the offer was $0.14, in 9 1/100th increments in one minute. Midway through three trades went at $0.1396, 7 and 8 for 10K, 9.9K and 5K. Then a “buy” of 62K (our third largest trade of the day) went off at $0.14. The effect was that we didn't trade below $0.1380 for the rest of the day, a “sell” of 193K shares @ $14 was done and we closed at $0.14.

     

    Nice job! Whomever wanted to dump >= 193K at $0.14 or so got it done. Or maybe someone wants to sell the next day and wants it to look like a good day with a higher close.

     

    How radical was this? Was there really a TFH activity? I don't know. But consider ...

     

    Ignoring the natural skew of buy:sell during the early trading, we had a buy percentage nadir of 11.39% at 11:11 with a VWAP of $0.1312, 1/100th above yesterday's close.

     

    The apex came at 15:12, just after the pushing the bid occurred, with a 34.41% buy reading and VWAP improved to $0.1345. From 15:09 on, including the AH trade (another unusual occurrence) the VWAP was $0.1400.

     

    Just how cool is that?

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    shhhh...i've been adding b4 some guys figure out that reverse splits to an upgrade is a good thang
    8 May 2014, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    " a “sell” of 193K shares @ $14 was done"

     

    s/b

     

    " a “sell” of 193K shares @ $0.14 was done"

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Gamble> Well, maybe, but the other half of the story is that there is a looming equity deal sure to go off at a discount and the company has no near term prospects of turning profitable.

     

    The whole picture is hardly "a good thang." The jury is out and a lot hangs on this cc. Let's hope TG's updates on "... the fast moving market initiatives that we have embarked upon" have some meat on the bone. There's that word "hope" again. :)
    8 May 2014, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    I was wondering where everyone went...
    8 May 2014, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    There is what, just a week till the sales news and the Con Call?
    Wonder if an announcement will be just before or during?
    8 May 2014, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    what sales news? on the most recent cc, mr granville did not say sales would be announced b4 or during the call...

     

    the latest discussion is the one to use

     

    u expect otherwise and u set urself up for disappointment, mr gt

     

    ga
    8 May 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    very true Gamble,
    No promises were made by TG. He did indicate that he would love to have the "substantial sale" announcement at or by this time. Im sure he will have more color on that subject, even if he can't announce it. As often said: No wine before its time.

     

    If the announcement is again delayed then Im sure it will be time to "whine", by some on this board. :-)
    8 May 2014, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    futur, yes, but not only whining. might provide a capitulation dip to 10 cents or something like dat as some guys that mis reacted 2 da split and upgrade news jump off the ledge they have been teetering on.

     

    if dat happens i'll b waiting to buy up some of those pieces. with all the big catalysts i see coming soon like epower and 999 and stationary, i can afford to wait longer than some other guys who have been holding long time
    8 May 2014, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    TG only said that he likes the 44 day period as he will get a chance to update us on projects. He did not say sales are in the bag. As I said, I'll be happy with just a solid update on NSC or auto.
    8 May 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Maybe TG should just play a tune. A suggestion for the after 6 months party.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gbGRRE
    8 May 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Almost seems like there's an effort afoot to rewrite Tom's words before he even has the chance to fulfill them.

     

    I do not think he used the precise phrases: "I promise sales..." or "sales are in the bag".

     

    And I don't retain copies of conference calls or the Q&A, *but if I had*, I am sure I could construct a solid case using only Tom's own words justifying their serving as or being interpreted as a definitive augury of significant sales. To many of us, though now apparently not all of us.

     

    IIRC, in the most recent Q&A, Tom was asked pointedly if there was anything which had occurred recently that would prevent the significant sales he had announced 4+ months earlier from coming to fruition within the originally-announced "six months" time frame. His answer was "No", noting further that any delays had been of the typical sort (government bureaucracy and financing delays were mentioned).
    8 May 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    I don't have the transcripts. I have a good memory. He said something to the effect of he's glad that the next CC is sooner than later because "there will be a lot to discuss".
    8 May 2014, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    SA does have the transcript and what Tom said in response to the "substantial sales question was:

     

    "Well I am going to mention here in my closing remarks than it’s a short 44 days to the next call. And we’re looking forward to that call because we’re looking forward to update everybody on how that is going and progress that we’re making. Would I love to have seven or eight of these projects under lock and key? Absolutely. Walk before we run for sure, is this a Norfolk Southern automotive scenario where it’s going to take forever to test, no that’s not where we are.

     

    The testing part of our cube alone will continue in some forms. We won’t have testing as the obstacle to sale. We won’t be face but yes we will give you the sale if you test the product for another 15 months, nine months whatever it is. We are out there, we proved the application. We are very anxious to get our New Jersey project up and running. We expect that to happen in the next two months and our batteries are in place there I think even if you look at the language in the K, it indicates that we have shipped all of the batteries, we have shipped the battery management systems, we have put the batteries in place in the ranking systems, wired batteries are waiting for the snow and it has now so that they can install solar panels there and complete the project. And that will be one more proof of application for us in the field here it is operating in the PJM network and this is the amount of revenue that it’s been."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 May 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Awesome - thanks, John. Here's the relevant exhange:

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    And last question thank you, the update on the substantial sales issue that we've been following for the last several months.

     

    Thomas Granville
    Well I am going to mention here in my closing remarks than it’s a short 44 days to the next call. .....

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    Has there been anything that has interfered with your initial expectation of substantial sales between then and now or is it just variety business delays?

     

    Thomas Granville
    It’s more the latter than the former. There have been a couple of hiccups in there such as funding for the owner, such as approval from government agencies that have just dragged down forever.

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
    8 May 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Do you have Tom's original statement about "sales" from many months earlier - the one that prompted the caller's question (and TG's answer "we’re looking forward to update everybody on how that is going")?

     

    I do recall it was a pretty unambiguous statement thus many here have been anticipating a fulfillment.

     

    Is there anyway to see it other than an over promise if TG fails to deliver before the next CC?
    8 May 2014, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think the exchange everybody keeps harkening back to was in the November CC for Q3-13.

     

    http://bit.ly/19AC1sC

     

    "Richard Brenner - Private Investor

     

    And your station as to you just made on your release you said that you’ll be looking forward to announcing sales in the near future. I noticed that my idea of near or soon and yours have not been in alignment. So I’m just curious with the toxic funding that we have going on right now and the 200 million shares give or take that will end up with. And the cash up until the end of the third quarter there is going to, probably be another funding that stock is at $0.12.

     

    What can you tell me that would give me some faith that you are going to be able to find some significant and actually announce them so this story would actually pull out as a small insurance shareholders are going to get diluted that you don’t get the cash flow positive this story is over. So I’m not sure how long I want to hold on. Can you give me something that would reassure me that this story is going to not be delayed, no six months that there is going to be a start button somewhere?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO

     

    Okay. One statement that you made and I certainly appreciate your concern, and I certainly appreciate you sticking with us a long as you have. One facet of the statement you made there is go look for orders, we’re not looking for these orders, certainly we continue to look for other orders for and look for new orders. But what I’m talking about isn’t something that we’re looking for and something that we’ve been working on some things that we’ve been working on for a long time.

     

    And by long time I mean a period of 12 months or longer. These are maturing. They’ve been out there for a long time. They certainly have been out there longer than we would have liked to see them, Norfolk Southern being a prime example of that. We finished our obligation at the end of the year, the end of 2012.

     

    And that locomotive that we provided batteries for is still on the road that has nothing to with us, it’s beyond our control. We certainly wish it was on the road because we know that it’s keeping them from moving forward. We know that it’s keeping them from progressing and doing more of these units. They need to get that first one out there. And I don’t want to throw stones here so I’m going to stop at that point. But yes, we are confident going forward that we do have and will have those orders and it won’t be six months out."

     

    I think its fair to say that nobody knew we were in for the mother of all winters in November 2013.
    8 May 2014, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Tom tacitly accepts the phrase "substantial sales" as a reference to the "significant sales" he had projected during the November CC.

     

    Is there also a SA link to that CC?

     

    I believe Tom was the originator of the "significant sales" phrase.
    8 May 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Every company has a separate data page on SA and you can get to it by typing the symbol into any search box on the main pages. Axion's is here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1jFzZk5

     

    Below the price graph there are link menus for focus articles, related articles, call transcripts and other news.
    8 May 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    175 days Or 5 months, 24 days including the end date. But who's counting?
    8 May 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    I see; TG was replying to a commenter who already had suggested 6 months as being far away (from Nov 2013).

     

    TG likely was over-optimistic in his response but this is still different than a prepared statement.

     

    Maybe we can cut him a little slack if whatever he is cooking needs just a bit more seasoning.

     

    It really all depends on what he has to say on the next call and how transparent he is about Axion current state.
    8 May 2014, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    It looks like Tom's projection of "significant sales" or "significant orders" actually originated in the August CC. It was brought again by two investors in the Novemeber CC Q&A.

     

    Here are the relevant sections:

     

    August 15th 2013 CC:
    Operator

     

    And this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the conference back over to Thomas Granville for any closing remarks.

     

    Thomas Granville - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
    Thank you. And thanks again for taking the time to listen to the Axion story. We expect to have a new member of the team – an important member of the team in place on our next call. I never promised orders on a timetable basis before. But, I will predict that we will have significant orders to talk about on our next earning call.

     

    We are looking forward to our Annual Meeting to our new CFO, to reporting new sales and to the growth and success of Axion Power. Thanks. You will be hearing from us soon.

     

    From the November 15th CC:
    Richard Brenner - Private Investor
    Good morning, gentlemen. How are you doing today?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    Good.

     

    Richard Brenner - Private Investor
    Yes, and Mr. Granville, I was going to ask about land decisions you’ve made over the past couple of years, such as 300% real, real revenue increase in relation with real water and a bunch of stuff. But now my main question, I’m just going to narrow down to it, significant orders. Where are our significant orders?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    Yes, unfortunately there are some things beyond our control. Naturally we’re very pleased with the order that we just announced for the solar panel project. We would have liked to been able to announce some of the other orders that we feel are very close at hand. There are like all things in life there are delays, the government shutdown being one of them. I really don’t want to get into that any further at this point.

     

    But I’m disappointed that we haven’t been able to announce more than we’ve been able to announce on this call. I’m also very encouraged about the progress that’s been made on those projects. None of those projects have been taken off before, none of those projects have received any kind of a serious setback or any setback whatsoever. And all of those projects have continued to move forward.

     

    Richard Brenner - Private Investor
    And your station as to you just made on your release you said that you’ll be looking forward to announcing sales in the near future. I noticed that my idea of near or soon and yours have not been in alignment. So I’m just curious with the toxic funding that we have going on right now and the 200 million shares give or take that will end up with. And the cash up until the end of the third quarter there is going to, probably be another funding that stock is at $0.12.

     

    What can you tell me that would give me some faith that you are going to be able to find some significant and actually announce them so this story would actually pull out as a small insurance shareholders are going to get diluted that you don’t get the cash flow positive this story is over. So I’m not sure how long I want to hold on. Can you give me something that would reassure me that this story is going to not be delayed, no six months that there is going to be a start button somewhere?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    Okay. One statement that you made and I certainly appreciate your concern, and I certainly appreciate you sticking with us a long as you have. One facet of the statement you made there is go look for orders, we’re not looking for these orders, certainly we continue to look for other orders for and look for new orders. But what I’m talking about isn’t something that we’re looking for and something that we’ve been working on some things that we’ve been working on for a long time.

     

    And by long time I mean a period of 12 months or longer. These are maturing. They’ve been out there for a long time. They certainly have been out there longer than we would have liked to see them, Norfolk Southern being a prime example of that. We finished our obligation at the end of the year, the end of 2012.

     

    And that locomotive that we provided batteries for is still on the road that has nothing to with us, it’s beyond our control. We certainly wish it was on the road because we know that it’s keeping them from moving forward. We know that it’s keeping them from progressing and doing more of these units. They need to get that first one out there. And I don’t want to throw stones here so I’m going to stop at that point. But yes, we are confident going forward that we do have and will have those orders and it won’t be six months out.
    ......
    Operator

     

    The next question comes from Bryan Richlane, a private investor. Please go ahead.

     

    Bryan Richlane - Private Investor
    Yes, hi. Following up on the prior discussion about significant orders, is there a way to get some perspective on what that means in terms of dollars? And perhaps roughly time-framing, I guess you said less than six months is your expectation. How about dollar wise?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    We haven’t given guidance in the past that’s been our policy that will continue to be our policy. But certainly significant means significant and it’s not just a creep-up in sales.
    8 May 2014, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The problem with words like *significant* is that they're fuzzy and have different meanings to different people.

     

    Tom delivered the Bysolar sale within the timeframe he predicted and I for one think the second biggest sale in the history of the company is, by definition, significant.
    8 May 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    SO I think Tom does include the BySolar PowerCube as one of the "significant orders".

     

    This is just fine with me as I completely agree with John's assessment of that order - monumental. I thought, incorrectly, that the initial projection of what we refer to as "significant" whatever only started in November and after that sale.

     

    That said, Tom does seem to give the projection new life in the November call. It's hard to imagine him making the same mistake - calling a home run without the ball being over the wall - in two consecutive and closely-following CCs. So I think there is a lot to it.

     

    I remain confident that significant orders will be announced before or during the upcoming call. Not 100% confident, but I'm still buying stock as I can. that sort of confident.
    8 May 2014, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Significant does not mean a single sale. That was clear. And Tom's last statement on the issue in November suggests he does mean sales which we would all consider "significant":

     

    "But certainly significant means significant and it’s not just a creep-up in sales."
    8 May 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Tom in November: "But I’m disappointed that we haven’t been able to announce more than we’ve been able to announce on this call. I’m also very encouraged about the progress that’s been made on those projects. None of those projects have been taken off before, none of those projects have received any kind of a serious setback or any setback whatsoever. And all of those projects have continued to move forward."

     

    And in wrapping up these comments on projects (plural): "But yes, we are confident going forward that we do have and will have those orders and it won’t be six months out."

     

    Why shouldn't we be confident, too?

     

    Isn't that all we've been saying? Those of us who expect sales to be announced - we're looking for what Tom said we should expect.
    8 May 2014, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I fully expect sales, but I'm not inextricably wedded to the idea that they must happen by a specific date, particularly after the mother of all winters threw a number of monkey wrenches into all our lives over the last six months.

     

    I can't speak for other Axion customers, but I know the foul winter weather extended ePower's project timelines by at least a month. Axion was always ready for us but we weren't ready for them.

     

    I've read a ton of comments over the last few months that have carved the magical date of April 15th in stone and predicted cataclysmic upheaval if it slips a little. My life simply isn't that black and white.
    8 May 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    i can't tell what mr granville was projecting with any reasonable precision, and i have a fudge factor in what he projects even when i can tell. who can and who wouldn't at this point?

     

    so i don't expect a sale announcement until after the cc. i've never seen it as some magical date. time is just about up, anyway

     

    i'll be ready below for those teetering on the edge who bail if (when, to me) they don't get their sales announcement
    8 May 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    gambleaholic - no one has been trying to "project with any reasonable precision".

     

    In Tom's own words, 15th of November 2013: "But yes, we are confident going forward that *we do have* and *will have* those [significant] orders and it won’t be six months out."

     

    On the 15th of May 2014 - some precision is poignant here - those "six months" will be up.

     

    "what sales news?"
    "what promises?"

     

    Make of Tom's statements what you will, but if you're going to tell others what they should or should not expect or what Tom did or did not say, why not make your case using Tom's own words, as I attempted.

     

    Or not - in which case, why say anything? That's my first question of those who are publicly dismissive of any expectations of a sales announcement: What is y'all's motivation for rewriting history?
    8 May 2014, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Taking Tom's fuzzy 'promise' that "...[significant orders] won't be six months out" at face value would be entirely fair. It is what he expected and what we he told us we should expect. He was giving himself the flexibility - as in: "I'll deliver, certainly before six months is up." Was he expecting it to be exactly six months? No. No more than six months? Yes.

     

    No one was ever wed to any exact date - the figure of six months was a deadline by which and at any time before which, significant sales should be expected and would be announced.

     

    Tom's words are out there, those of us expecting sales for the past six months are NOT twisting his words. Nor do we want our words twisted.

     

    I'm not selling my shares if he does not deliver. I'm not running out to New Castle with a sandwich board to picket for his firing. I'm just saying.
    8 May 2014, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    edmund metcalfe, your output is more precise than your input.

     

    i can't tell with precision what mr granville was saying long ago, or more recently. on top of that, i know things almost always change with axion and there is hardly any time left b4 the cc. furthermore, the bysolar news was just before quarter end. we don't have that here, even if it was part of the customer's timing.

     

    maybe someone can do another poll to get a feel for how many shares might be sold if no sales announcement until after the cc. would help me and others determine what to do before cc as well as afterwards if the price caves

     

    my other interest is in what updates mr granville provides. to me that will be the real news
    8 May 2014, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    "what promise?"

     

    Tom on Aug 15th 2013 making his "promise" of "significant orders":

     

    "I never promised orders on a timetable basis *before*. But [now], I will predict that we will have significant orders to talk about on our next earning call."

     

    "on our next earning call" (which would have been Nov 15th 2013) turned into "[within] six months" (which will be on May 15th 2014).

     

    His prediction nee' promise was made to all of us and still has life.

     

    Personally, if he fails to deliver, I believe he will be up front about it, provide details, reassure us that this or that God-damned government-created delay will be overcome or whatever. I don't expect he will give up and I don't expect every project to fail. I expect to see the significant orders and certainly not within yet another six months, more along the lines of shortly hereafter.

     

    But even before he fails to deliver, I'm not one to assume he will do so, and I'm not writing him an excuse note like he's a child. Or muddy the story to set myself up for a soft landing. It's going to hurt; I was counting on those "significant" sales. If I made a mistake, I guess it'll serve as my annual requalification for "slow-learner status".
    8 May 2014, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (204) | Send Message
     
    I must have read that transcript from the last CC a dozen times. I still do not know what it means. But TG is confident he is really close to something sustantial. I think, deep down, TG is disappointed that he has not closed the deals he wants to have closed. He went out on a limb on August, doubled up in November and was caught short last CC without anything to show. If I had to guess I would say that he felt that the big news was only a few weeks away (so wait 44 days and you won't be disappointed).

     

    If this is the case then there are three possibilities.
    1) We get news of sales or a lifting of an NDA with deal in place before or at the next CC
    2) He gets the timing wrong again and has to delay us again. I think if this is the case he might give us a little heart to heart speech about how he is very close, frustrated and will deliver soon. This positivity would not see a decline in share price I don't think.
    3) He can't close the expected deals full stop. One or more of the potential customers pulls out. How he conveys this info in the next CC would be awkward to say the least. I think at the very least he will have to say there have been some setbacks in the expected uptake of PbC. Excuses might be difficulty changing the mindset of established industries or even large partners not willing to rely on a small production facility.

     

    I am praying for 1, expecting 2, probably going to have to have one or two of my posts heavily moderated if 3.
    8 May 2014, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I am the Richard Brenner that asked TG those questions although my name and a lot of the transcript was not translated accurately. But I beleive TG's intent was fairly accourate. The way I received TG's response to my questioning is he was confident that Axion still had and would have significant orders and it would not be 6 months. I believe the winter delays, government delays and whatever delays has caused havoc with his predictions. My focus is on his statement; "But yes, we are confident going forward that we do have and will have those orders....".

     

    On May 15th it will be 6 months but the main question is how much longer will it take due to those delays?

     

    I am "hoping" that he still does have those orders coming!
    8 May 2014, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    RB,

     

    I thought that was maybe you.

     

    Anyhow on this next call I hope you can get TG to give a straight answer as to the status of those predicted orders. Yes, agreed delays happen, but TG owes you (and us) an explanation I'd think.
    8 May 2014, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    > "I am the Richard Brenner"

     

    Aha, I've been trying to match the callers with APC users. It's quite a game because it's hard enough to work out what the person's real name is, let alone try to match it to a username. Whoever does the transcriptions sure doesn't care: "Our next question comes from [indiscernible]", every time.

     

    Anyhow, two more and I shout bingo. I presume there's a prize.
    8 May 2014, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    I think he is incredibly bad as a communicator and he doesn't know how to manage investors expectations. Not wonder he is incapable of selling Axion story the same way EM is able to sell his, even though the pbc has a lot of merit...
    9 May 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    To be fair, electric cars have the ability to sound to the casual observer as something glamorous and futuristic, kind of the way the gadgets in the 60's Bond movies seemed at the time - reality notwithstanding.

     

    With PbC, well, someone with deeper pockets has been telling those same people for a while now that lithium is the broadband of batteries, and we're just some kind of dial-up on steroids. How do you overcome that on our budget?
    9 May 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    jpau, by not going after every niche, which is what axion has long done. focus on a few.

     

    nsc likes us. epower loves us. auto is getting closer as we're an especially good fit for the upcoming generation that taxes the batteries more than just s/s. stationary is such a vast market that there's room for many chemistries. we've got partners for that one.
    9 May 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    never let a punk put you in a funk.
    9 May 2014, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, I am lurking as usual....
    8 May 2014, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    BTW: Very off topic:
    The Vikings need a QB very badly. The GM has failed for 8 years with two teams to ever pick a good one. Please pray that he finally gets it right.
    8 May 2014, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Come on Futurist, they got Webb.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jEhBb5
    8 May 2014, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    OK, I'll pray that the Vikings waste their first round pick on one of these guys, since none of them, in my opinion, will be around in 5 years. In the meantime, hopefully my Packers can get a safety, another rushing linebacker, a decent TE, and another good WR and get back to dominating the NFC North! ;-)
    8 May 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Your killing me. We took a very promising WR and wasted his talent for two years.
    8 May 2014, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    LabTech,
    I don't care how many we take or what round. Going nowhere without one. Prayer is the only answer, well, maybe a shot of hopium.
    8 May 2014, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Get 'em to buy some AXPW - that'll put a spring in their step for sure.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, bring back Fran Tarkenton "The Scrambler". Oh for the days of the "Purple People Eaters".

     

    You remember, back when quarterbacks really got hit when they couldn't put a play together. Not the new Prima Donna sport.

     

    Now you have to invest in Axion to see blood during the exciting game days! :-I
    8 May 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Purple People Eaters was a fav, along with Orange Crush.

     

    'Course. your's had a song too.
    http://bit.ly/1gcfYwR

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    Well, you had to wait till the last pick of the first round, but the Vikings traded back up into the first round to get Teddy Bridgewater. So you have your QB of the future. Good luck.
    8 May 2014, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I'm very happy with the selection. However, I went to bed two picks to early.
    9 May 2014, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1285) | Send Message
     
    i'm not. but i'm a bears fan, so congrats... i guess.
    11 May 2014, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    go pack go!
    12 May 2014, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    EOD stuff up, no commentary, except for TFH stuff, just data today. Seems reasonable since I suspect everything.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Five of our twelve trades so far are 100 shares trades at the high of the day, $0.1444, all "buys". Hmmmmmm ...

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I have been watching that also, what's your TFH telling you??
    8 May 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: Likely an MM that wants to move some shares at a price higher than the market looks ready to support? That could be a similar cause for yesterday's ~$0.01 move up in consecutive steps of 1/100th penny to within 1/100th penny of the ask at 15:09 and a few minutes later a 193K "sell" at 15:12 at $0.14.

     

    What we don't know is if it's MM trying to move shares for a customer or just getting their profit or getting their portfolio to market-neutral.

     

    Since PUMA, an infrequent player in our space, was the one that walked the bid up yesterday, I suspected some larger player working through two accounts caused yesterday's action. Walk the bid in one account to move the market up, then sell from the other side - we never likely saw the shares on the offer. BTW, along with the 193K at $0.14, the 62K was also at $0.14 at 15:10, in the minute following the "walk up". Total move in those trades 255K.

     

    Today I have nothing that leads me one way or the other.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    Was the 193k from Josh Greene here? Also PUMA walking up the bid was his guess, not firm recollection, I believe.
    8 May 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The other possibility is that we have some lurkers who think it would be fun to try and take advantage of the plan to preserve round lot holders. There is something attractive about the risk-reward ratio in a $15 buy that could get you 100 shares post-reverse. The fly in the ointment, however, is that I don't think Axion's that interested in protecting its round lot holders and this kind of abuse will only make them less interested.
    8 May 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: "HTL - pretty sure it was PUMA they were very active"

     

    I'll generally go with the best available info. We know it's oput of character for ATDF and none of or *normal* participants have exhibited such behavior (ATDF normally does 10K sizes and only a few moves up sans competition), CDEL, NITE, ... are not ones I've seen do such.

     

    That *suggests* Josh's observation was probably good.

     

    hardToLove
    8 May 2014, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    It tells me that someone either has a lot of free trades to use, or is wasting a lot of money trying to keep the bid up.

     

    A lot of money being relative, of course.
    8 May 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: I've observed many of my on trades in the past have a 100 share trade go and then *wait* a long time for the rest of the quantity to go off. That suggests to me there's a possible MM behavior involved - maybe trade 100 so I loathe to cancel the order and the MM then tries to do a better price to his advantage before completing my order. E.g. I want to by something at $1, the mm gives me 100, acquires the balance at <= $0.99 and then completes my order at $1?

     

    Could be similar on the sell?

     

    We'll never know, but since I've seen the behavior on my own stuff where I know the quantity and price and then see the behavior ...

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Yeah, I kind of assumed it was an MM too. I can't see a normal investor doing that, even if some might try and do the "round lot holders" game as John described.
    8 May 2014, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    When I first started following Axion three years ago we saw a lot of this kind of behavior.

     

    I take advantage of it by looking to see if the volume of bid or asks changes. That lets me know if the bid or ask is about to soon run out and change.
    8 May 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    JVeal: That's why they have "standard present" - we can't tell real "behind the curtain" volumes that may be involved. I always note when a trade hits the bid or ask, even sometimes with the qty larger than what's shown, and the "present" qty remains unchanged.

     

    The "obfuscatory" tools available to them, by rule, are enormous in scope and variety.

     

    We get lucky when we can see the real volume and see it decrease as trades go off.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • nym
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Martin Wolfe, Financial Times columnist:

     

    Low interest rates are certainly unpopular, particularly with cautious rentiers. But cautious rentiers no longer serve a useful economic purpose. What is needed instead are genuinely risk-taking investors. In their absence, governments need to use their balance sheets to build productive assets. There is little sign that they will. If so, central banks will be driven towards cheap money. Get used to it: this will endure.
    8 May 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    the 193K wasn't me... also, fwiw, any time i execute a buy or sell of 10K+ or more, the first 5K goes off instantly, and then it seems to take a while for the rest of the trade to happen - presumably, hunting through the crevices of the otc to see if there is a better offer somewhere before executing...
    also, interestingly, sometimes an extra 5K happens - almost as if there is a ride along - eg, buy 20K and 25K goes across the ticker, sell 10K and 15K happens , not affecting me, but assuming there's some mm algorithm riding along.
    8 May 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Josh: I've also seen the "ride along" go off. Never could figure why yet.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    sorta off topic. mxwl is going after some of the same niches axion is. the stock is holding up well since its big move up in late feb and early march. anyone here follow the stock closely and have an opinion?
    8 May 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Soonermba
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Well, with yesterday's mornings purchase I have joined the axionista million share club, averaged at 12c Remains to be seen if that it genius or foolish.
    8 May 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Color me green with envy.
    8 May 2014, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Sooner,

     

    Congrats and good luck on your gamble! Looking good so far!
    8 May 2014, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Soonermba
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    We shall see, greatly appreciate all the useful commentary on these concentrators, far above the quality of most boards
    8 May 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Welcome to the club Sooner! May your success also come sooner than later.
    8 May 2014, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    Sooner,

     

    How long did it take you to deploy your money into Axion (days/weeks on the bid)? And how did you first hear about AXPW?

     

    That's quite a bite if you just recently discovered this micro-cap but your timing is about as good as can be with the PIPErs now gone and uplist/sales/NS rumors in the air.
    8 May 2014, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    What color is skeptical?
    9 May 2014, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Soonermba
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Found AXPW through one of JP's comments attached to a Tesla article when I was researching a short on that stock. Got my first 250k in September in the 13/14c range, then added most of the rest in the Jan/Feb timeframe at 9c/10c. Was sitting at 950k shares for a while, so decided to round off to a nice even 1m this week when it dropped back into the low 13s.

     

    Timing feels good today, but from reading these concentrators, I'm guessing there are a few dozen times over the past X years where others have thought the same. Hope this time is different and we all can be on a ship heading the right direction!
    9 May 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Soonermba
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Put me in the category of those who actively follow these concentrators most days but don't have anything useful to contribute so don't post hardly ever. Hopefully for all of us there a lot more similar folks.
    9 May 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    I think your Axion timing might be better than a Tesla short would have been last year. But now I think your short will work as well as macro winds have cooled.

     

    As far Axion, the conference calls and how TG explains the next placement will go a long way; heck you might be up 25-50% next week.
    10 May 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    OK. I suspected but was too chicken to state it. True market nature appeating? Buy:sell through 11:37 1:2.30 (30.30% "buys"), meaning ~70% sells as folks unload at >= $0.14. VWAP $0.1422, buy VWAP $0.1442 and sell VWAP $0.1414.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Of interest? Last night added a short-term descending resistance trend line with origin and two touches to see what might happen. Loks AFAICT to be $0.1445 (which I would normally round to $0.145).

     

    I was interested because the $0.15 has been stout resistance and I wanted to see if we might challenge it again.

     

    If this potential new resistance holds, a near-term challenge to $0.15 seems less likely to occur.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 May 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Wow, What a stare down! A spread of $.0005 on 10,000 shares, a $5.00 decision! No motivated buyers or sellers around here today!
    8 May 2014, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Today's theme music:

     

    http://bit.ly/1jERrFj
    8 May 2014, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Now the plot thickens as the ask has been dropped by an amazing $.0001!! The spread has narrowed to $.0004 or the equivalent of $4.00 for a block of 10,000 shares!

     

    The crowd watches patiently for one of the players to blink!
    8 May 2014, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    buyers blinked to the tune of about 150,000 shares
    8 May 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • clydedoggie
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Even you diehards have to admit this is a funny headline.
    http://bit.ly/1jF0uGj
    8 May 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    We're all diehards with a sense of humor. That'd be my guess, anyway. Of course, two or three might disagree with that - boy, that'd be a surprise.
    8 May 2014, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Maybe 481086 can do a rewrite of the article that parodies the Axion story.
    8 May 2014, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    IIRC last Sunday's Cosmos said the mass of the dark matter in the Universe was six times greater than the mass of the matter we can identify.

     

    I think there may be a lesson there. It reminds me of the Mark Twain quote, ""It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."

     

    Many thanks for the link.
    8 May 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Favorite part of the article:
    "Nowadays, many consider the leading candidate—and the axion’s main rival—to be the weakly interacting massive particle, or WIMP, a hypothetical heavyweight that could have a mass hundreds of times that of the proton"

     

    This is so ripe for a parody.
    8 May 2014, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Clyde: I'm still trying to figure out how much consciousness weighs ;-)

     

    Appreciate the link, as I have been a fan of quantum physics and quantum mechanics for at least 30 years. Went to see Brian Greene at the Philadelphia Public Library about 10 years ago to listen to his lecture about his book "The Elegant Universe." What a fine speaker he is.

     

    What I "hope" (possibly the second most used noun in recent threads behind "sales") is that the Law of Attraction soon starts kicking in with Axion Power.
    8 May 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Law of Attraction! Now that's the Secret!
    8 May 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Parodies the Axion story? Verily, that is one *seriously* tall order my friend...

     

    But even so, I do have a link here that I think just about covers it:

     

    http://www.axiron.com

     

    I mean, we all could use a little more Spring in our step eh? ;)
    8 May 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    For a second there I thought it was Axion for "male enchantment". Thought I had already swallowed that.
    8 May 2014, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Vehicles in China will use start-stop technology from Johnson Controls

     

    http://bit.ly/1jF0OER
    8 May 2014, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (274) | Send Message
     
    Using AGM batteries. Good luck with that....
    8 May 2014, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    If it's good enough for the Europeans it's good enough for the Chinese I guess. Unfortunately the Chinese are not as pragmatic about how they recycle their LABs as the Europeans. So they will get even more non value added for their money.
    8 May 2014, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • footleg
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Did I miss something about the effect that the RS might have on the odd sized lot? Should I be bumping my holdings to some round number? And thanks to JP for illuminating the legal complexities.
    8 May 2014, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • jmcmean
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Hi all, I was pondering over Tom's words from one of the CC posted above:

     

    "... we’re looking for and something that we’ve been working on some things that we’ve been working on for a long time.

     

    And by long time I mean a period of 12 months or longer. These are maturing. They’ve been out there for a long time. They certainly have been out there longer than we would have liked to see them.."

     

    Have anyone had seen this before from the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative:

     

    http://bit.ly/144aeiM

     

    It mentions Axion and PBC, with some comparisons as well (Page 14). But what I thought was interesting was on Pg 20, where Axion announced a small 0.125MW project in 2011 for Niagara Falls State Park.

     

    Does anyone know anything about this?
    8 May 2014, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Highpower Receives First Testing Order for Its New Energy Storage System Products

     

    http://yhoo.it/1jFQ3SM
    8 May 2014, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    The short interest today was over 30%, it does not suggest that the PIPErs are out yet I guess.
    8 May 2014, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As long as the numbers are bouncing around I can't draw any conclusions one way or the other. One thing is sure, however, things are a lot more orderly of late and there doesn't seem to be any pushing and shoving at the pay window.
    8 May 2014, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Is it possible that the RS announcement has brought in some new flippers and that could skew the data?
    8 May 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My theory is that the FINRA short numbers are a good to excellent proxy for unregistered shares that were sold directly to investors by the company and are now being resold by those investors into the market.

     

    The basis for the theory is that all shares sold by a company in an unregistered deal are legally classified as "restricted," even if the issuer files a resale registration statement for the securities as Axion has done.

     

    While the resale rules for restricted securities have gotten looser over the last decade, a holder of restricted shares has to comply with several regulatory requirements when he sells those shares. Moreover, his broker has to perform certain back office procedures to satisfy himself that the rules have been satisfied.

     

    Since the paperwork associated with that regulatory compliance precludes *good delivery* the instant a holder of restricted stock hits the sell button, I *think* resales of restricted stock flow through the FINRA short reports.
    9 May 2014, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    There are 2 ePower trucks that have been mentioned. Are they both having the same delays for transmission changes?
    Are they both going to the same company for actual on the road work/testing?

     

    The race is on! Trucks verses Train
    Which will announce "In Service" first??
    9 May 2014, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's not reasonable to characterize the transmission and rear end gearing changes as delays.

     

    We are engaged in a complex development process where upgrading one component like an engine boosts performance in its own right and highlights other potential changes to boost system performance even further. You know you've reached the end of the path when there are no further obvious changes. Then you put your prototype in the hands of third-parties in the hope that their use of the system in a real world setting will identify other areas where there's room for improvement.

     

    The goal is to learn how to make a good system, learn how to make it better and never stop learning. The milestones merely mark progress on the journey, they don't mark an end.

     

    The sleeper cab is the first tractor we've built that will have enough performance to haul the lions share of the cargos on the road today. Lessons we've learned from our work on the sleeper cab are being incorporated in the day cab, but they're independent development projects on parallel paths. While we plan to follow the same kind of testing protocols for each tractor, there will be significant differences in the details.

     

    As news becomes available I will share it.
    9 May 2014, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    05/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 43000, Vol: 364523, AvTrSz: 7594
    Min. Pr: 0.1410, Max Pr: 0.1450, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1431
    # Buys, Shares: 29 239318, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1437
    # Sells, Shares: 19 125205, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1422
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.91:1 (65.65% "buys"), DlyShts 113993 (31.27%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 91.05%

     

    Mostly just the usual: a 300 share trade hit the ask of $0.1448 at 15:57 to close the day very near the $0.1450 intra-day high; on the bid at $0.13 was 156K from ARCA, joined by 160K ...

     

    The buy percentage today rebounded from yesterday's drop to 28.8% ... The daily short sales percentage did what it should ...

     

    On the traditional TA front, because of the on-going suspicious activity at the close and other things I've mentioned, I only want to mention a few things ...

     

    A compressed spread and open and close that resulted in a “spinning top” candlestick (indicating uncertainty), combined with volume down ~64% makes me think this attempt to push up today has no legs regardless ...

     

    Without that 300 share $0.1448 trade at 15:57, the close, we would have closed lower at $0.1420 than the open of $0.1443, but still above yesterday's (not suspicious) $0.14.

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2014, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Here we go folks, another day of stare down! The Bidders are slowly climbing up towards the Askers! What will the magic number be that will cause a trade to actually occur??

     

    Ok, I admit that I am bored! I think I need to go find something else to do while this paint dries or in Axions case fades!
    9 May 2014, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: It made me giggle - "chasing the bid" to get at the top of the heap! Some folks from CDEL, NITE, ATDF kept jumping each other. When it got high enough, $0.144 where it started the session, three sells were done there and $0.1425.

     

    Then things settled down.

     

    I recorded 20 moves, and that wasn't all of them, 9:46-10:20.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, Problem for the general market is that the news channel is filled with nothing but air. What's going to act as a stimulus? Whatever it is it's not evident. So quiet right now you can hear a pin drop. Hardly supportive of TG's exchanges of excitement. It is very hard to stay excited about the Sunday social when it's 6 months out...maybe.
    9 May 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Everyone wins. Hurray!

     

    Why a combo of grid-tied solar and battery storage benefits all

     

    http://bit.ly/1g3Cwpd
    9 May 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • negoslavbg
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    A few minutes ago I added my last piece of shares = 31,000.
    This is my last entry in this company.
    Let's see what's for us Tom Granville on 15 th of this month. :)))
    9 May 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Tesla's giga factory plans:
    http://bit.ly/1sa89ND

     

    they are planning to run the place with wind and solar, how cool would it be if they used power cubes for the much needed frequency regulation?
    9 May 2014, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    ARGE,
    I haven't looked at a wind chart of the US lately (I think Rick used to have one that he posted), but I'm wondering if any/all of the sites that Tesla is supposedly looking at have enough constant wind velocity to make electrical energy generation from the wind turbines viable?
    9 May 2014, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Given the 4 state area I would think that there is some place that has a lot of wind blowing--west Texas is already a big producer of wind energy...Quite often too much, they even pay sometimes for places to use it at night.
    In any event there is talk about needing storage to make it more efficient.
    On a side note there is an area around El Paso that is supposed to be a prime slot for Geothermal and EnviroMission has signed several licensing deals with developers to build their solar towers in Texas ... and are expected to be completed in early 2014.
    http://bit.ly/1g4SOOt
    I do have a feeling that Musk might be a little hesitant to locate in a state that requires new cars be sold through a deal however.
    9 May 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone have any thoughts on how updates from NS might affect Axion as a business? I am not asking about any affect on the stock price but rather would good news from NS gives us more confidence about future sales and timing or provide further confirmation about the effectiveness of the PbC and the value of the technology?

     

    Thanks
    9 May 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    NSC has already vetted the technology. There will be a PbC-powered train rolling out the Altoona yard sometime soon.

     

    I don't believe the market has priced in the positive marketing a train like the NS 999 can do for Axion Power when it is finally demonstrated to the public.
    9 May 2014, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Patrick,

     

    Do you mean that we already know all of the technical information we can gather from NS because they have already endorsed the technology?

     

    I think about two aspects to the technology. The first is that the PbC is really good at doing X, better than any reasonable alternative. X represents some range of operating conditions, temperature, lifetime, charge acceptance, weight, etc. I feel very comfortable on this point and the previous endorsement from NS was helpful for this.

     

    The second aspect is finding that X is really valuable in some set of applications. This is where our problem is. In general I feel pretty confident that this is true but we don't really know how valuable those applications are. Having NS move to the next stage would be encouraging on this front. It would also help fill in a data point where we see how long it takes to develop these new applications.
    9 May 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg,

     

    I agree with your point. I also feel there is no reason for a company to adopt the PbC before government emissions regulation force their hand.
    9 May 2014, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    We know that the PbC's X hits the ePower truck sweet spot.
    We hear that it also is in the running for Frequency Regulation's X.
    What we don't hear is that the general market realizes this and has queued up to buy.
    9 May 2014, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Guys, I want to respond to the these comments, but I don't feel they deserve the effort.
    9 May 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg, NSC is a first tier customer. A design win would virtually assure the viability of the company moving forward. It's an absolute game changer for the company and stock price. With a design win in hand, Axion would be able to go to any investor and raise money at fair valuations.

     

    The fact that they have published reports stating that the PbC is the only battery for the job is huge, yet unreflected in the stock price due to the PIPE. It will be a huge tidal reversal once NSC announces the NS-999 is a success and follow on orders forthcoming.

     

    The only problem is that we have been waiting for a long time, so the stock price languished. But now that the NS-999 is in the shop the wait is almost over.
    9 May 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, I wouldn't expect "follow-on" orders so much as a statement of intent to field dozens of slugs in tandem with more traditional diesel-electric locomotives and use them in the same way that ePower uses the batteries for grade assists and fuel savings through capturing regenerative braking energy. The final incarnation would have slightly different design and specs, but PbC all the way baby! (Design win).
    9 May 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't be surprised to hear of orders far in advance. After all, the NS-999 batteries were ordered far in advance as well. I'm not saying it'll happen right after the NS-999 is done, but hey, maybe they need to catch up to schedule!
    9 May 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of the diesel-electric locomotives, if GE and Axion haven't been introduced yet, they should. I presume GE would like to have NSC make a commitment to buy more diesel-electrics from them if they can help optimize the loco and and the batteries. I also see a great deal of promise in combining GE Durathon and Axion PbC in parallel for grid applications.
    9 May 2014, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    Even if NSC announces an intent to build 10 electric yard switchers next year, that would only add up to about $3MM in revenue, and maybe $750k net margin. Hardly a game changer. It's not even enough to make up for the toll contract they are losing. They need that kind of revenue every month to get anywhere near profitability. So, I don't expect NSC by itself to have much of an effect.
    9 May 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    IMO it's not about the absolute revenue but the signal that future revenues are forthcoming. It would make capital raises much easier.
    9 May 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, True IMO. Right now the market is treating Axion like an untouchable. A kiss from aristocracy would go a long way toward removing this perception.
    9 May 2014, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    expectations are what drive stock prices for stocks like this. people can and will disagree with what those expectations are, certainly, but for anyone to not know that is redunkulous. they should stick to bond funds, or maybe slow growth dividend stocks.
    9 May 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    @ topcat
    re": "I also feel there is no reason for a company to adopt the PbC before government emissions regulation force their hand."

     

    The reason for NS to invest in hybrization is that it provides FREE fuel without tying up a lot of capital.

     

    If you only look at the purchase of plug-in EVs or pure electric EVs, you miss the point. These are cars for extremists. Hybrids are cars for smart people. Hybrids have built-in FREE fuel. My son just bought one. They cost a little more than "regular" cars and get a whole lot more mileage, which is the same as saying they come with FREE fuel.

     

    Same goes for trucks and locos. NS spends $1,000,000,000 a year on fuel. It is there number one expense. If they can save 5% on fuel by employing "mild" hybridization, that's $50 million dollars per year.

     

    They don't need guv'mint thugs to make that a good investment, which is why they have been trying to do so for years. What they need is an uber-reliable, uber-safe, battery technology - like the PbC, apparently.
    9 May 2014, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    NS spent $1.613 billion on fuel for railway operations in 2013, up slightly from $1.577 billion and $1.589 billion in prior years.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/QnNARr
    9 May 2014, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John. Are you aware of any information put out by Norfolk Southern which states what they hope their battery-powered loco project might save in terms of dollars or diesel?
    9 May 2014, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The closest I was ever able to come to a rough estimate was 50,000 gallons of diesel fuel per year.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I suspect the real number is higher but without an impeccable source I'd rather not climb out on that limb.
    9 May 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue & JCRJG - Here is a little story from last Wednesday to ponder in the Axion's train/truck matrix. Drove from Chicago to Louisville on I-65 which is a divided highway with at least 2-lanes each way. Traffic was whizzing along at 70-80 MPH for most of the 5 hour trip. To pass the time, started counting 18-wheel vehicles going in the other direction. There were enough that 100's were counted in a couple of hours. Then started to count cars vs. trucks, which came in at 3-1. Keep in mind we were only counting trucks going the opposite way.

     

    My take-away is that the ePower model as described by Mr. Peterson will lead to the first steady stream of Pbc orders due to the size and breadth of the trucking sector. NS is a business superstar and any mention lends AXPW credibility, but as we all know, their testing is specific to their engines and looks to grind on once the prototype gets out of the shop. An NS endorsement might effect the next capital raise, but that is out of my area of experise.
    9 May 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Rgh

     

    Thanks. I agree that the testing is specific to their application, but how much can we extrapolate to say that it will be good for other applications? I don't know enough about the details of the various applications, hopefully someone else can comment on this.
    9 May 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3549) | Send Message
     
    Hi guys,
    I found AXPW while looking for ways to store energy for trucks to meet the anti-idle regulations. The reason I am impressed with the PBC is charge acceptance. Instead of idling a truck all night to keep a sleeper climate control going during a 10 hour rest period, I saw the possibility of having a couple of batteries for APU function where the engine would automatically kick on for about 10 minutes to maintain charge enough to do the job. If the engine only had to kick on two or three times during a 10 hour period imagine the fuel and pollutants saved (as well as a drivers/companies wallet). There have been many OEM and aftermarket system tried, from aux generators to A/C accumulators, none have been very good. My experience as a driver is now dated as the last time I drove OTR was 5 years ago.
    9 May 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    "My take-away is that the ePower model as described by Mr. Peterson will lead to the first steady stream of Pbc orders due to the size and breadth of the trucking sector." -rgholbrook

     

    I have to believe that other companies will have to start asking "why we didn't think of that" and what other applications may be possible.
    9 May 2014, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Vattenfall Ditches Carbon Capture and Storage Research

     

    http://bit.ly/1g4Awgq
    9 May 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    Looking at Level II data, I see "dreams" of buying 360,000 shares of AXPW at 12 to 13.2 cents.

     

    I believe the days of multi-hundred-thousand share sacks of AXPW being tossed off blackened trains driven by PIPErs lumbering by in the dead of night at 'salvage' prices are just that: dreams.

     

    Dollars to donuts, I think that the days of being able to buy hundred thousand share blocks of AXPW without drastically bidding up prices are GONE and that those thinking that they'd "wait and see" before going "all in" will rue their lost opportunity to have bought all they'd ever want at the ridiculously low prices over the winter.

     

    I think we'll sooner see 23, 40, or 50 cents (pre-RS) than twelve to thirteen cents again…
    9 May 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Looks to me like the dog still has fleas.
    9 May 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That looks like a deliberate exercise in tape painting at the end of an otherwise solid day.
    9 May 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    It's all bottom food.
    9 May 2014, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Yep! We had an "outside reversal" (engulfing bearish candle") today following the "spinning top" of yesterday, VWAP down -0.06%, buy % dropped from 65.7 to 28.0, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "I believe the days of multi-hundred-thousand share sacks of AXPW being tossed off blackened trains driven by PIPErs lumbering by in the dead of night at 'salvage' prices are just that: dreams."

     

    Rugged> I'd like to believe this but to play devil's advocate, we can expect later this year our (pre split) 225 million shares to roughly double for an infusion of cash of probably under half the market cap or $10-$12 million net. From June 2013 to May 2014 we know that over 100 million shares were poured into the market, creating the opportunity for buying the abundant 100k+ blocks you mention. While near term those 100k+ blocks should be scarcer (unless terrible news), unfortunately anything could happen after the Q4 financing, depending on the demeanor of the financiers.

     

    Since every single white knight of all of Axion's earlier financings ended up pushing all their shares into the market, to think it couldn't happen again is just wishful thinking. With the outstanding share counts (pre split) looking something like the following I would be much more cautious in my assessment about 100k+ block availability going forward:

     

    May 2013: 113 million
    May 2014: 225 million
    May 2015: ?? 450 million give or take
    9 May 2014, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's no question that the PIPE was a disastrous deal. That's the reason management has requested authorization for a reverse split and is working on plans for a market upgrade. The only way you'll see a doubling of the share count for chump change is if the stockholders reject the reverse split. If the stockholders give management the authority to negotiate and close a reasonable deal it will probably do so.

     

    Doing a PIPE transaction is like peeing on an electric fence. Once in a lifetime is more than enough for any man. There's a big difference between being the devil's advocate and being the devil's fear monger.
    9 May 2014, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    I recognize that we have diametrically opposed points of view; you tend to continually worry about worst case scenarios and I trust commercial embracement of our revolutionary technology to take place "real soon now".

     

    Our respective cost basis (and length of time in the investment) could also likely color our points of view. I don't remember whether you've stated yours, but this month marks my second anniversary in the story and my average cost is a bit under 22 cents (transactions from 36 cents down to 9.55 cents).

     

    If we get to fifty cents (pre-RS) by late summer and finally snag a REAL strategic investor (along with NASDAQ listing, etc,) I think even you would concede that would present a hugely different state of affairs.
    10 May 2014, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "The only way you'll see a doubling of the share count for chump change is if the stockholders reject the reverse split."

     

    I hope you are right that a NASDAQ listing guarantees an equity deal at a smallish discount to market. This is your area of expertise not mine so I will defer. If for some reason however we stayed on the OTC, split or not, I see no reason a non-PIPE deal couldn't go off at a PIPE-like discount. We in fact have such a precedent - the 65% non-PIPE deal discount in 2009.

     

    The other variable beyond the discount affecting 'good v. bad' financing is the market cap. I think that could head either direction pre split and pre deal. I'm trying to perform research in order to lay odds. The trouble of course is that the market for every company's stock is somewhat unique, as is the potential for, and the actualization of, news. History doesn't have to repeat, nor even to rhyme.

     

    I think it may be more difficult to get strategic non PIPE financing than is expected unless a clear path to ramping sales emerges. The reason I say this is that any investor group doing its diligence into Axion's financing past will find that the only financiers to make a profit in AXPW were the 2013 PIPErs. Every other investor group going all the way back AFAIK has lost their shirt. This could give non PIPEr institutions pause about injecting their capital prior to PbC having a revenue stream.

     

    Good terms financing is one more reason a design win a la BMW, NS, Kia or other first tier OEM would turn gray skies to blue. I think there will be a rapidly expanding market cap at some point which would be a boon for old shareholders in any new financings. Before that 1st OEM win starts the ball rolling I still think caution is prudent due to the potential for 'share printing'.

     

    My history of comments on Axion runs the gamut from being wildly bullish on Axion stock long term to bearish on the financing news and critical of management in certain respects, while approving in others. Because my tone has run the gamut from rants to raves I don't think fear monger is an applicable label.

     

    I'd say though that you've had a consistently pollyannish bias in your pen regarding Axion. If you harbor any negative assessments I can't recall any to speak of. But I would certainly understand given your past relationship with Axion that posting negative thoughts could be tantamount to burning bridges so I would not really blame you.

     

    Still, I think investors are wise to try to 'kill off' their investment ideas. When that's very hard to do is when you know you've got a good risk/reward situation. Unfortunately it's not hard to see a very ugly possible future for Axion shareholders and it's name is "continued lack of sales". I don't see any positive 'uplisting effect' overcoming that outcome forever.
    10 May 2014, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Now that the BOD has announced a plan to uplist the company's shares and make financing more attractive to mainstream investors, it seems there are only two alternatives: vote for the RS or selling up. The status quo is not tenable for the reasons you give.
    10 May 2014, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    RA> The discount on the 2009 financing was deeper than I would have liked, but it was based on a very deep due diligence dive by four first tier investors that treated Axion like a private company and gave it a post-money valuation of $48 million as a late-stage VC investment.

     

    When I compare the Axion that existed in December 2009 with the Axion that exists in May 2014, the differences are staggering and the value added during the last 4-1/2 years is huge.

     

    My thesis is simple. If Axion was worth $48 million in 2009 with crude manufacturing processes, no potential customers, no proof of product performance and no manufacturing experience, then it should be worth a good deal more than $48 million in 2014 with highly refined manufacturing processes, several first tier customers that have validated performance and a solid history of manufacturing quality.

     

    Take a look at the recent VC deals in the space.

     

    Last month Ambri raised $35 million in new capital for a liquid metal battery technology that's not as far along as the PbC was in 2009. Ambri is years away from sales. While nobody has described the details, I'm fairly confident that the investors didn't end up with 100% of the company.

     

    http://bit.ly/1j64fFO

     

    In January, Aquion raised $55 million in new capital for an aqueous hybrid ion battery technology that's not as far along as the PbC was in 2009. Once again, Aquion is years away from sales. While nobody has described the details, I'm fairly confident that the investors didn't end up with 100% of the company.

     

    http://bit.ly/1j64fFU

     

    Aquion and Ambri both have interesting technologies, but both are long-discharge duration stationary storage technologies, neither has Axion's proof of performance, neither has established manufacturing processes, neither has established potential customers and neither has the fundamental usefulness of the PbC.

     

    I understand efficient market theory, but I know there are times when the market simply gets it wrong.

     

    In its last three financing rounds Axion has gotten the worst of all possible worlds from its investors. People who had no damned business selling have been shoveling stock into the market with pitchforks. That bad behavior has crushed the stock price to obscenely low levels that don't bear any reasonable relationship to the private valuations for companies with less valuable technologies.

     

    The biggest hidden asset Axion has is only visible on this concentrator – a rock solid base of retail investors who have been accumulating the stock for the last four years and have represented a minuscule percentage of sell-side activity during that period. Investors with the backbone and conviction to buy in the face of the stock chart from hell and continue buying are priceless because unlike the 2009, 2012 and 2013 investors they're not going to flip out for nickels and dimes.

     

    It's important to remember that I've seen the PbC at work and I understand what this battery can do. The disconnect between Axion's current market capitalization and its fundamental value is immense, and that's not Pollyanna.

     

    If Axion stays in the OTC ghetto and continues to do business with pawnbrokers and loan sharks it could be facing a long rough road. If it successfully implements a plan to upgrade its market listing and attract a better class of investors the future will be very different.
    10 May 2014, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Is it possible the institutional money has decided Axion had its chance and a near decade long 100M runway yet still hasn't landed the big fish. Or maybe they don't like the fisherman? It doesn't really add up that Axion with its better mousetrap still has to beg for financings. And I don't buy the idea (espoused by a few on this board) that Axion is still an industry secret - not after your 6 years of excellent PR. In my opinion, the big money that exited back in 2009 and 2012 should have been replaced with other deep wallets. The evidence suggests that TG isn't the most persuasive of ceos. However that skill is much needed when you rely on others to help pay your bills during the startup phase.
    10 May 2014, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion went public too early because that's what it took to clean up ownership of the PbC technology and bring everything under one roof. For better or worse, that decision took the company out of the running for most VCs and left it at the tender mercies of the micro-cap financiers.

     

    Qurecus was basically a VC investment that gave Axion a post-money valuation of $38 million and ignored the existence of an illiquid public market that traded a grand total of 833,000 shares in 2007. Quercus paid no attention to the stock price and relied solely on its valuation of the business and technology.

     

    The 2009 financing was basically a VC investment that gave Axion a post-money valuation of $58 million and ignored the existence of an illiquid public market that traded a grand total of 7.2 million shares in 2009. The 2009 investors effectively said "We know you have some shares that trade, but we're going to ignore the public market when we negotiate our terms because each of the four big investors is buying the equivalent of two-years of sell-side trading activity."

     

    By 2012 the public market was too big to ignore with total volume of 77.7 million shares in 2011 and the class of investors was different. It was a true "private investment in public equity" or "PIPE" deal where the investors looked no further than SEC filings, trading volumes and stock price. When a company makes the transition from venture investors to stock market investors, the CEO can argue value till his face turns blue and it won't make a difference. You live and die by the price history which was looking pretty grim by then.

     

    By 2013 the price history was looking really bad and instead of a straight PIPE, we ended up with a variable conversion price deal that really sucked. While there's no way to know for sure, I choose to believe the 2013 PIPE was a bailout option after somebody bigger and more strategic tried an eleventh hour squeeze.

     

    I think deep pocket investors find Axion every bit as attractive today as they did in 2008 and 2009, if not more so. The problem is they can't buy the existing market history and pay a fair price unless something happens to reset the trend.

     

    I continue to believe that ZRPSOD and a little news will be enough to hit the reset button. I don't, however, think that the reset will take us to a $700 million market capitalization, which is what we'll need for a market upgrade. After a lot of years helping clients work their way through similar issues, I believe Tom has identified one or more groups of investors who are saying "Give us a restructured company we can buy."

     

    It's very dangerous to underestimate Tom Granville. He single-handedly raised all the money Axion spent from 2004 through 2007 and several of those early investors were top executives of world-class outfits that were investing their personal funds.

     

    Until you've spent time in the barrel you can't begin to imagine what it's like talking to investors who handle offering materials from OTCBB companies like they were plague blankets. I think Tom has all the talent he needs but he lacks the proper tools.
    10 May 2014, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    All those excellent points you make just highlights the question of why we are in the sad state we are. New proven technology and nobody but pawnbrokers, loan sharks and individual investors willing to give them money. Obviously the pawnbrokers and loan sharks are doing it for the churn not the product.

     

    Axion doesn't have the exposure it should have but it is not a "well kept secret" either. Why only individual investors think "it's going to rocket any day now, I want in"?
    Do us individual investors have "Pollyanna" dreams of its success that clear eyed institutions don't?
    Is it that by being on the OTC exchange that even though they want to in the worst way, they are restricted from it? In your opinion, will up-listing initiate a flood?
    10 May 2014, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When I did the original reverse merger between Axion and my public shell, I expected the company to move off the OTC and onto a real exchange within a year. That plan got fouled up by lawsuits that took years to resolve.

     

    I hate the OTC markets with a passion that knows no bounds. I also know that once a company gets stuck on the OTC retail investors have to come in and clean the streets before a company can move up to bigger and better things. The process has been very time consuming and painful for Axion.

     

    Axion's street is now clean and its management thinks this is a good time to upgrade to a market where credible investors will pay a fair price instead of trying to extract a pound of flesh at every turn. I agree.
    10 May 2014, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Rugged> I do worry about worst case when I deem worst case to be reasonably likely. I think there's an excellent chance that *if* no sales path emerges Axion's market cap trades down from here not up. Very big "if".

     

    I try to make a living at trading in stocks and so far so good. I view the equity landscape as a minefield, in which case first and foremost one needs to worry about avoiding mines. Thus my obsession if you will with thinking about worst case.

     

    It's worth noting that if somebody in 2009 or 2010 when Axion was giving rosy presentation after rosy presentation had obsessed about worst case and found the market cap to be a little rich at the time as a result, they might have waited and got in at a much lower price than they did. Did any pundit or author even write up or present a studied bear side argument against Axion stock, while the tech was being hyped by the company? Doubtful. It's not fun but it really does pay to think a lot about worst case.

     

    I hope sales come "real soon now" too but I recognize it as hope and not analysis which is a dangerous investing strategy. If you have analysis giving you confidence of a sales path soon please share. Otherwise it may make more sense to get in on the 10th floor after the sales path is clear rather than trying to pick out the basement.

     

    "I think even you would concede that would present a hugely different state of affairs. "

     

    I've been saying all along that if I knew all future financings would be based on much higher market caps I'd be an unqualified bull. But just 2 or 3 more financings at the same market cap that you bought in at could be extremely painful.
    10 May 2014, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    The reaction to the trucks and train rolling, in the next month, will tell us and the market a lot.
    10 May 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    RE: VCs.

     

    The VC industry is essentially a ponzi scheme. They are willing to pay much greater valuations because the whole game is to talk up the start up until they can offload in an IPO. From seed capital to Series A, B, C, D rounds, the name of the game is to pay HIGHER valuations each time. The company becomes a big public name and an IPO is arranged.

     

    If you've already gone public and have bad price history, as well as years of delays and an unsexy product, you've got nothing for large institutions to pump. The retail investor enjoys being able to get in and out of a stock. The institution needs near term catalysts or hype to move large blocks of stock. Big difference.

     

    Unfortunately or fortunately, AXPW will go up only when there is good news. But it will be epic. PLUG size epic.
    10 May 2014, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    If someone can make a forum post and shake a few timid people to sell their shares cheap, then they can grab them and resell in a few weeks instead of being like us and holding for a year to get the big gains.
    10 May 2014, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    For the last 3 years the market has discounted TG. And it seems like like the 2012 and 2013 placements were strikes 1 and 2 in baseball terms. I'm a rooting for a guy down in the count to get a big hit but he has to do more than foul off pitches on the CC next week.
    10 May 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bazooooka ... If you're looking for some good solid news out of the CC, then try getting an answer to just what is going to replace the revenue from the expiring Toll Contract. No solid answer spells serious trouble for shareholders with the currently visible prospects for sales. Norfolk won't float the company. ePower won't float the company. The odd PowerCube won't do it either.

     

    It boils down to very good financing or sales. Care to flip a coin?
    10 May 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    bazoooooka, carrying your baseball analogy to its logical conclusion, fouling off pitches keeps you in the batters box. I'm okay with that. It's the swing and miss that I fear.
    10 May 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Could agree more RA. You summarised my views in your post...
    11 May 2014, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, It was a heck of a dump given today's volume. To what end?
    9 May 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    what dump? today was pretty solid. there was a trade that evidently logged late. see my post below. nothing to worry about. seen it many times b4 in the last couple months anywhere in the day. this one just happened to be near the end, and was highlighted because no other trade happened after. when they happen earlier in the day, they don't get noticed much as subsequent trades roll on.
    9 May 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Could be as you suggest. I wasn't paying close attention at the time.
    9 May 2014, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It was a 15,000 share end of day trade and it wouldn't surprise me to learn it was a "market order" rather than a "limit order." When market makers see a good enough opportunity, it's no big deal to bear the inventory risk for a weekend.
    9 May 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2740) | Send Message
     
    Anyone see what happened at the close? Thought we were finishing strong with a large bid at .145.
    9 May 2014, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: That must've been an intra-broker trade or something. Neither ADVFN nor Power Etrade "Time & Sales" show a bid or ask at $0.14 in that period. Both show b/a $0.145/$0.1469 at the time.

     

    SWAG: ATDF was best on both sides at the time, and several other times during the day. I suspect they could see an order for $0.14 we couldn't see, probably in all day, and they accumulated some <=$0.14 (maybe during the $0.1381-$0.1390 price ranges and then sold them at $0.14?

     

    No way to be sure though.

     

    It's one of those "behind the curtain" things we aren't privy to, that's for sure.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2014, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (266) | Send Message
     
    i started watching the trading on this stock a couple months ago, wanting to see what would happen as those pipe guys were on the way out of town. i noticed many times there has been a trade below the bid, at any time of the trading day. those look like a delay in the trade data flow or something like that. i think the $.1400 last trade, when the bid was something like $.1450, was just one of those.

     

    mr iindelco, what do you mean? it sounds like you are down on the stock? dog fleas. r u short? sounds like a coupel guys here r short. or just p-off?
    9 May 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Gamble, Can you even short this stock?

     

    Anyway, no I'm not short. I am disappointed w/ no sales in the targeted time frame. Love the tech. but not blindly in love with the management team post the development cycle.
    9 May 2014, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Old southern Christian saying: Love the sinner, hate the sin.

     

    I agree, iindelco. I'm over the whole promise/predict thing from management. The only "p" word I want to hear from them is "performance".
    9 May 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Today's daily FINRA short percentage fell to 18.96%, which is on the low side of the normal range and doesn't give me any clear feelings one way or the other.

     

    It is worthwhile to note that the Short Interest reported every two weeks for OTC stocks fell to 4,287 shares on April 30th, which is almost exactly what it was on April 30th of last year before news of the PIPE ballooned the short interest to a high of 1.34 million shares. If one assumes that the short sellers are PIPErs groupies who short on the deal and cover on the exit, this a good sign.
    9 May 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    BMW expanding carbon fiber factory, will use the material on non i & M models

     

    http://bit.ly/1l9BFlJ
    9 May 2014, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    They are lucky it wasn't shipped to an Axionista. It would be filling in for the quadcopter by this weekend.

     

    Oops! UPS accidentally delivers a $350K US government DRONE to college student who ordered a weightlifting bench

     

    http://dailym.ai/1l9KpIl
    9 May 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Canada: Ontario Energy Storage: Is It Financeable?

     

    http://bit.ly/1g5l43z
    9 May 2014, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    Tesla Says Battery-Supply Deal for Toyota RAV4 EV to End
    http://bloom.bg/1j5bJZT

     

    "Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), the electric-car maker planning to build the world’s largest battery plant, said its deal to supply Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) with battery packs and motors for a rechargeable crossover will conclude this year.

     

    Toyota, which owns a 2.4 percent stake in Palo Alto, California-based Tesla, said in May 2012 it would buy the company’s components for 2,600 electric RAV4 EVs over three years. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, had said he expected Toyota to extend the agreement that was initially worth as much as $100 million, based on a July 2011 filing. "

     

    Interestingly Toyota didn't confirm this.

     

    "Toyota hasn’t announced plans to conclude the RAV4 EV program, said John Hanson, a company spokesman.

     

    “This was a project for a specific number of vehicles that we planned to sell for a specific number of years,” Hanson said. “We have not made any announcement about the relationship or what we’ll do with Tesla in the future.” "
    9 May 2014, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Did I miss it or has Axion not put out their notice of the upcoming quarterly report and CC? Don't they usually put one out the week prior?
    9 May 2014, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    The conference call caused a slight price bump, so I am all out. Took a while, but I'm finally fully liquidated.

     

    I cannot stand to listen to one more minute of that malignant manager Granville. He has bamboozled us, all of us including JP, for too long. This latest 50-1 dilution attempt is near the end.

     

    I don't know if the NASDAQ listing story is a dream or an attempted fraud. Now I don't care.

     

    I have heard and understood the diluting beer with whiskey pitch, but that makes the assumption the bartender isn't just peeing in the whiskey bottle to refill it. The company valuation is so trivial now its acquisition by a large player would hardly show on their financial statements. NSC spent $1.6b on fuel last year; what does $20m or $40m to buy the whole company mean to them?

     

    The stock will get diluted and it becomes simple to acquire enough to force out the minority shareholders. NSC would probably do this legally.

     

    A company like Kia could easily be somewhat less than perfect. One (or two or three) "unrelated" entitity starts buying stock discreetly, and staying below the reporting limits. Another "unrelated" entity invests directly and visibly in the some of the diluted stock that becomes available. Kia's name is nowhere to be seen, of course, since that might boost the stock price.

     

    But everybody in Korea is family, and by coincidence the unrelated entities happens to be the chairman's brother-in-law and the CEO's cousin.

     

    The result is the holders of the c. $30m market capitalization receive 2% (50-1 dilution) get to share something like $1m of the proceeds.

     

    It makes me mad, but there is nothing I can do about it now. This story may have other details or endings, but every permutation I can think of leaves the current shareholders losing at least another 50-75%, if not everything in a technical, contrived bankruptcy. It may not be Kia or NSC; BMW has resources. Or perhaps someone in the grid space, like GE or ABB.

     

    TG has pissed away the value of the company, while personally receiving something like $5m in compensation and perks over the last decade, not exactly "nickels like manhole covers".

     

    My real comments about him would surely be censored, so I will stop here. I don't like being taken for a sucker. I feel sorry for Vani; he's a good man that fell for the story.
    10 May 2014, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Wow, Rick, you've just lost a ton of cred with this bizarre speculative rant and bad analysis (that a 1:50 split is "dilution", or even that that ratio has been settled on, etc, etc). I also no longer believe your bio that you attended Harvard Business School.
    10 May 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Rick's may not have been the most eloquent of his contributions, but he has always tried to stay off the hopium pipe and live in the real world. This in contrast to others here, whose rose-tinted viewpoints are inexhaustibly adaptable to constant selling, parasitic financing, broken promises and the increasingly obvious truth.

     

    Every day that passes adds credence to the viewpoint that legacy holders will be flushed in one way or another. The current path is unsustainable. If there is a route to sales, I do not see it. I'd need to be picked off the floor if automotive came through at this point, rail is a fine POC but will not bring volume, stationary is highly competitive and each deal hard won and relatively small. EPower? Watch out for the rose tinted lens that opportunity is being viewed through.

     

    Based upon performance (the only metric that counts), the competency of executive management is underwhelming. Personality doesn't come into it if the job is done right. They fight only for their salaries and guaranteed cash 'bonus'. That is to say, as long as new money of whatever color comes into the business, they do fine. Rain or shine. There is no stock incentive. Options are priced at $1.50+.

     

    If in fact the tech represents a viable solution to real problems, then someone other than legacy holders should be paying the price for failure.
    10 May 2014, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Thanks for all your technical contributions here. Hope you'll find reason to hang around to add to the conversation as varying technology is discussed.

     

    Your choice to divest is to me a personal one which I respect. Can't find too much fault in you concerns expressed. There are these and many other possible pitfalls which continue to grow as Axion moves forward w/o sales or a path to them. Then there are the possible positive developments that might offset them as well. We are all tasked with the decision to add to or reduce our individual exposure to the story as we see fit for our own reasons and needs.

     

    Thanks for sharing your perspective. I appreciate when those that clarify their reasons for their choices do so because it's a useful tool in adjusting my own perspective.

     

    If you do choose to move on I wish you success in your endeavors and again thank you for your contribution in this forum.
    10 May 2014, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    I believe Rick is confused about the possibility that the company could be acquired cheaply on the open market. I believe he may be speculating that ahead of or following a 50:1 reverse split, one of our potential customers buys the company outright by striking a deal with TG and board to issue the remaining authorized shares in exchange for a big hunk of cash to continue operations but the original shareholders end up with less than 10% of the company. The latter doesn't seem possible or legal without shareholder approval.
    10 May 2014, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to see you go RK. Another respected commenter gets fed up with TG and bites the dust with Axion as an investment.
    10 May 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3549) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rick,
    We all have to make our personal decisions on a continual basis. While I disagree with much of what you said, I respect what you said and use it to evaluate my own position, that's the nice thing about differing opinions. I hope you stick around to help keep us knowledgeable on the other alt energy stuff that is constantly brought forward here.
    10 May 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3802) | Send Message
     
    Damn. I respect Rick. He's still got a ton of cred with me.
    10 May 2014, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    Rick
    I've always found you well grounded and your basic technical knowledge is far beyond my own. It's been good learning from you. I hope you keep an eye on us and continue to drop by. If not I wish you well.
    10 May 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: Rick is generalizing but the scenario he describes is very doable. As the PIPE financing showed, there are many, many ways to bring about the destruction of legacy shareholdings. It could involve multiple rounds of expensive new capital with lots of warrants and options attached. More directly, the financing could take the form of debt with onerous terms attached that once triggered forces the company in bankruptcy etc. etc. etc. The sky is the limit here and it is naive to think that it can't or even that it is unlikely to happen here.

     

    In the end, it entirely falls to the competence and especially the ethics of the management team and the board of directors. If you trust them then we have a chance, even though management's track record is uneven. If you don't trust Mr. Granville then you probably shouldn't stick around.

     

    Rick. Sorry to see you go. Your contributions have been invaluable.

     

    Axion is a wild card. As good as the technology is, any investor needs to be able to handle a 100% loss of investment or shouldn't be in this stock.
    10 May 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    Everything RK just said has already been said before in more PC type terms so I wouldn't call it bizarre . As far as his bio a cursory look will show anyone that he is no 'babe in the woods' when it comes to business.
    10 May 2014, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    bazooooka> On the contrary, I can't find any evidence that RK has been seriously involved in any kind of longterm business venture anything like Axion Power. He spent less than 1 year as a "founder" of garage-style start-ups including NiHy and more recently (2013 till present) at Crie Comm. Before that he mainly was involved in managing various aspects of his father's business, a jewelry maker.

     

    http://bit.ly/RAPUWp

     

    His longest job outside his father's company was five years in Brazil when he "Managed a 20 person sales team selling Brazilian state lottery franchises". As an Ivy League Academic myself, (It takes one to know one), don't be intimidated by the Harvard credentials. An old boys club.

     

    This is not a personal attack. Simply stating the facts.
    10 May 2014, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    PY, I stand by my comment above but thank you for the interesting link about RK and his family's 150 year old business.

     

    Imho. I'd think RK would have been a good customer for Axion (maybe his family's island could have found some interesting storage uses) and I'd bet he may have known other potential customers as well. .

     

    Furthermore, the article confirms he went to Harvard, questioned by RA above, and it suggests he had a major hand in his family's "long term business" venture (larger than Axion).

     

    Anyhow, I do hope TG can bag an elephant since it appears TG has little interest in working with small timers (sans EPower). And I'm not happy to see a guy like RK bail out when I'm certain he had more than a few shares and may have known others with interest.
    11 May 2014, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Rick just laid flat out what a lot of people on this board secretly think of TG and his crew. In hindsight, I don't really know whether he has been more of a boon or a pariah for the development of Axion in these late years, but the market seems to tell you it has ZERO confidence in his abilities.

     

    To add insult to injury, when a small start up that doesn't sell product yet is willing to dole out 400K a year cash to a CEO who seems closer to retirement than anything else, it is only normal to think said CEO is more concerned about lining up his pocket (and to hell with the business if it doesn't turn out well) than making sure the company prospers. Sorry to lay it out crudely, but that is what the recent events and disclosures say. Also, if TG is apparently such a prosperous man who made money prior to Axion, why not sacrifice one year's bonus and send a good message to your shareholders? This is most definitely what I would call good corporate governance. Unfortunately, he didn't do it, and for me that is not a nice message.

     

    Axion definitely has a good product. I just don't think TG is the right man to take it forward, and no convincing/reasoning would make me think otherwise.
    11 May 2014, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    RA, we clearly "had a failure to communicate". My 50-1 dilution thesis is not because of the reverse split, but, as your own blog points out, is due to the unchanged level of authorized shares. Will the exact legacy shareholder pain be 50:1 or 20:1? I don't know. Your math is proposing a possible 77:1 dilution.

     

    However, from your blog, "7700% more stock they could issue without any stockholder approval." That is a lot of legacy stockholder pain, which I called dilution.

     

    I completely agree with your statement that the filing is "extremely offensive and thus worrisome for the audacity of it alone."

     

    Regarding business schools, facts are facts, regardless if you want to beleive them.
    11 May 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    Patrick - You linked to a 15 year old article. Kewl.

     

    I don't like talking about my failures, but NiHy Engines (in conjunction with REmotive Energy and Racketash Sustainable) was not a "garage-style" startup. Our prototype plant was $117m, and production plants were going to be in the $1b to $2.5b each range. We had a verbal funding commitment for the first $100m from a single investor in fossil energy. After several hour-long conversations with the CEO of a prospective partner ($100b energy company with very strong political connections), he flat out told me "Your idea is very, very good, and we are going to make sure it never, ever happens." This was a totally credible threat, and our $100m investor backed out. Flush the toilet on three years.

     

    Does a HBS MBA make me supremely qualified for anything? Of course not. I am glad you, too, are not intimidated by Ivy league credentials.
    11 May 2014, 01:31 PM