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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    But what color for *this* era?
    19 May 2014, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking green, just not pastel.
    19 May 2014, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Missed it by that much!
    19 May 2014, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    The rare but definite perk of living in a timezone 13+ hours ahead of the core group!
    19 May 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    sneaking a peak at work!
    19 May 2014, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    I sent my color enhanced market capitalization graph to APH because I'd been working on an Instablog titled "Axion Power International's History And Future" and I wasn't sure how long it would take to complete the process.

     

    I finished more quickly than I expected.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 May 2014, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic, JP, I enjoyed it very much. Though long-time Axionistas may say that a lot of it is familiar, wide-angle articles like this that encompass the entire history of the company are extremely useful for the incoming and uninitiated.

     

    > "...set the stage for Axion's largest financing ever, a $26 placement of common stock..."
    Minor correction? - I assume that should be $26 million?

     

    Thanks again for all your efforts.
    19 May 2014, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Great catch on the missing word. I'll go edit the Instablog now.
    19 May 2014, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Summoned forth the name of "Tom Konrad".
    A reputable name to balance the views.
    The future looks bright.
    19 May 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    The red, green, blue, and white colorations are not realistic. The true history is written in the 10 Qs and Ks. I would like to stay with the facts and not ignore the past failed efforts to market the PbC battery (which failures I believe have not been the fault of the battery itself). John, it is also not reasonable to infer on this chart that the process development and application development efforts ended in April of 2013, those efforts are never ending.
    Is the PbC battery marketing program's for each of the applications now on the right path? I seriously doubt that, but perhaps in some cases the battery is good enough to succeed in spite of being in the hands of a company that is too small for the energy storage market place and too weak in its marketing and sales capabilities to compensate for its lack of size. It would be a wonderful thing to see this battery succeed in spite of its circumstances but without some fundamental changes within Axion it seems improbable.
    19 May 2014, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    I disagree wholeheartedly and have just published a lengthy Instablog that details why I disagree. Please feel free to read the detail and tell me exactly where and why you think my classifications are inaccurate or vary materially from the disclosures in Axion's SEC filings. Axion may not have had flashy successes in bagging big demonstration projects, but I've never seen a nano-cap that could claim disclosed relationships with a pair of industry giants, much less the additional undisclosed relationships that stockholders have uncovered through persistent snooping.

     

    Axion may be little more than an asteroid in the universe of publicly traded companies, but it's an asteroid that's pulled several planet sized companies into orbit around the PbC. Hell, two of them publicly embraced the technology before there was a product that could me made in relevant volume.

     

    While everything that went before was sales for testing and evaluation purposes, the PowerCube sale in November was a sale to a customer who plans to use the batteries in a money making enterprise. The follow on order from the same customer tells me the customer thinks the opportunity is real and the PbC is the best solution.

     

    Axion needs to bulk and it needs to scale if it has a hope of competing in the energy storage industry. Management has outlined their plan to move out of the OTC ghetto, implement fundamental change and develop the bulk Axion needs to compete effectively. There are no guarantees that those plans will succeed, but I can guarantee that thwarting those plans will be disastrous.
    19 May 2014, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John - I will read your instablog but if it paints the same rosy picture of the past that this chart attempts to portray I will no doubt continue to disagree. My half century of experiences in the real world of high tech startup corporations has taught me that looking at your past performance through rose colored glasses and bolstering your spirits with the waving of pompoms are not the keys to achieving the true measures of success – market share and profits. Those uplifting tactics may work if the object is simply to bolster the spirits of shareholders and thereby bolster the price of the shares, but thankfully that’s not my area of expertise.

     

    As to thwarting the plans of Axion, I fully support the shareholder approval of that which is necessary to efficiently raising the capital needed by management to successfully market the PbC technology but I am dead set against authorizing the ridiculous number of shares that they have attached to this reverse split and I will not be blackmailed into doing so by threats that a NO vote on this combined authorization will thwart their plans.

     

    TG said in the CC that the BoD knew all along that having 350,000,000 authorized shares post-split would be far too high a number; so why did they present us with that number, was this some kind of test to see if we were awake, were they trying to thwart their own plan? So now they must tell me/us what specific number or ratio of authorized-to-issued they feel is appropriate to their needs and I will then reconsider my NO vote.

     

    All of this controversy was totally unnecessary and represents just one more mistake that was easily avoidable.
    19 May 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2161) | Send Message
     
    Hi PBC,
    It is easy to be hypercritical of past marketing efforts of a battery maker of a disruptive tech that requires engineering from the ground up to use the battery that isn't a drop in replacement for anything else. The electronic controls for our batteries have to be designed to match the battery characteristics. You can point to these as failures, I point to them as part of the learning curve and growing pains.

     

    Now that companies like Princeton have electronics that work with our battery, we are in a much better place. JMHO
    19 May 2014, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you John. Initially when I first got interested in Axion back in 2011, I thought we were only months away from full scale commercialisation. In the real world however, things almost never pan out the way we expect them to, especially for cash starved up and coming enterprises!

     

    Now it seems we are finally at the exit doors of the Valley of Death. It is then up to TG and management to scale revenue and grab the interest of quality financiers who can help us grow into a mature business, not the shark loaners who were out there for a pound of flesh at each opportunity.
    19 May 2014, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13553) | Send Message
     
    Ok, the casserole has had sufficient time to cool, no longer too hot to touch...

     

    Time for the fun to begin.
    19 May 2014, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    The End of the Beginning.
    The Future is Now.
    19 May 2014, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Everybody knows that I think the focus on a reduction of percentage ownership that's commonly known as "equity dilution" is mis-placed because you can't dilute a beer by adding a shot of whisky. The more fundamental issue is that equity dilution is an affirmative choice every stockholder makes in the privacy of his own room.

     

    If I own a business with a partner and that business needs more capital to cover losses or expand, my partner and I can both write checks to provide the required capital and neither equity interest will change.

     

    If one or both of us decides that we won't or can't write another check, we can bring in a third party and suffer the dilution that goes hand in hand with somebody else's willingness to invest the money that we could not or would not invest ourselves.

     

    The mere act of choosing to not write another check to provide the capital our company needs is by definition an affirmative decision to accept dilution of our interest.
    19 May 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • HSeldon
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I'm using this reply to JP as my maiden forray moving from long-time "lurker" and shareholder (since 2010) to commenter.

     

    JP's point is one missed many times by those complaining commenters of the "dilution" and lack of pps momentum problem. Again not an original point, but the company is still effective in the "late VC" stage of capital acquisition, and were it not for the necessity of IPO early would still be unaccessible to most of us as an investment vehicle. This is both good and bad. Due to the company's stage of development, the winds of sentiment that blow through have little to do with actual stage of either development of the company's product or the status of the company's finances. They blow hot and then cold based on nothing more than sentiment. That's the bad.

     

    The good is that most of us here would have little or no financial ability to otherwise participate in a company at this early stage (I'm saying it's at a late VC stage, obviously others may differ). And on top of that, the dreaded PIPErs effectively did those of us that are continuing to accumulate shares a huge favor, they sold into the market--effectively acting as traditional underwriters. Hence, the shares placed have all been made available to the general market at a price (whether reflective of true value or not) that allows us--the retail public--to participate on the same terms as the PIPErs. While this mandates that you have to keep participating to avoid dilution, how is that any different from early investors during the Angel and VC stages of a company?

     

    Never have I personally had the opportunity to participate at this stage in a company with a technology as disruptive as AXION's. Does management get it right all the time? Hardly. Do I wish the pps was $1? Sure. But from my perspective, the most important thing right now is management's dedication to lowering cash burn. They seem to be pursuing enough sales avenues that revenue will come. The pace is frustrating, but kind of like Gallo, "no revenue before its time."
    19 May 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    Welcome. Don't wait so long before making your 2nd comment.
    19 May 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Your comments above are the way things are supposed to be but not the way things have been with the Axion story.

     

    In all of the past raises only the insiders had the opportunity to participate or not, and in some of the raises like this last PIPE disaster even the insiders had no opportunity to participate in the senior notes with all of those warrants attached. Sure they could buy up those shares being sold by the PIPErs and some did but they sure as hell didn't get any warrants to go along with their acquired shares.

     

    No John, the choices available to an AXPW shareholder have not been as you describe.
    19 May 2014, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • hanging chad
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Well for my second contribution I'll point out that I believe it was Mondavi not Gallo
    19 May 2014, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    Last year I had 75k shares in a company with a $20M market cap and 100M shares outstanding.

     

    This year I have 75k shares in a company with a $20M market cap and 225M shares outstanding.

     

    Therefore, I have been diluted.

     

    You cant dilute beer with whiskey, but you can certainly dilute whiskey with beer.
    19 May 2014, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • HSeldon
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Oops, note to self--always research your quotes first!
    19 May 2014, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    It was Paul Mason wine that had that quote by Orson Wells. http://bit.ly/1sLq4KX
    19 May 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Welcome HSeldon,

     

    I am also a shareholder since (5feb)2010 although the bulk of my purchases were in 2012/2013.

     

    I appreciate and am in agreement with the well thought out points of your post. I agree that the PIPER financing enabled inexpensive shares to those of us who wished them. A funding alternative to the PIPE'ers would have been to 'sell' the soul of the company and new buyers and legacy shareholders would likely have been left out in the cold and I applaud Mr. Granville for keeping the company in our hands.

     

    I also applaud him for keeping trade secrets 'secret' and to play with your simile . . allowing the carbon to properly age, a process which I believe has now reached/is reaching maturation.

     

    Share price will follow, I am investing in the same.

     

    geopark
    19 May 2014, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Market cap does not equal value and can change on a drop of a hat.

     

    AXPW more than doubled in March without any material changes to the company.

     

    What "dilution" did for Axion was put it closer to design wins that could carry it forward. Being closer to money increases the value of the company.

     

    Take a break and come back in June.
    19 May 2014, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    JP himself says Axion's current market cap of ~$30 million is grossly undervalued. Therefore when new pieces of the company get sold based on a valuation that is even lower he should concede that it is very dilutive based on his own notion that the company is worth well over $100 million. The price that new shares get issued at is everything when gauging dilution.
    19 May 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    RA - it dilutes in the short term but adds value in the long term.
    19 May 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> Depends whether the capital infusion is invested wisely or squandered. At the very extremes of the issue price range even that hardly matters to dilution.
    19 May 2014, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1763) | Send Message
     
    Mondavi's contribution was: "Wine is a lifestyle, not a drink".
    19 May 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    There are many ways to compute dilution, but only one that has meaning to most of us. We all have our personal opinion as to the price at which a share of AXPW would be reasonably valued. Any sale of company stock at a price less than that--even at a premium to market--will be perceived as dilutive of our personal share of that company's valuation. If Axion were to agree today to sell the company at 30c a share, I would consider such a sale destructive of the value I've mentally placed on my holdings. I'm confident JP would feel the same. Yet, if Axion's next capital raise were to be a billion shares at a penny a share (legalities and splits aside), would we be told again about the impossibility of diluting a beer with a shot of whiskey?

     

    Dilution of share value may sometimes be necessary in order to remain a going concern, but the enterprise value of a firm with extremely valuable IP does not drop to zero simply because the company has temporarily exhausted its cash.
    19 May 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1614) | Send Message
     
    NGS> Last year I had 75K shares. This year I have over 1 million shares. I would never have had the opportunity to accumulate so many shares for so little money had it not been for the PIPErs making every last one of theirs available to the market. I feel like whatever the number of shares ends up being in 2016, they will never be cheaper than they were this past winter.

     

    PbCBeliever> I have no words. At least none that are constructive and cordial.
    19 May 2014, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    PY. I'm pretty sure you will have plenty of continued opportunity to buy more cheap shares at similarly low prices (adjusted for split) as we move into the next financing. It is my sincere wish that you should become very wealthy from your share purchases, but I think you still have a year or two to wait.
    19 May 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Alpameister> Equity dilution is an affirmative decision by stockholders who are unwilling or unable to contribute their proportional share of the additional capital a small company like Axion requires to cover operating losses and expansion costs.

     

    When investors like the PIPErs buy shares for a 15% to 20% discount to the market and then flip them back out at the market, holders who didn't participate in the original financing are at a slight disadvantage, but its a very slight disadvantage.

     

    If you choose to sit on your wallet instead of making an indirect but proportional contribution to the capital your company needs, dilution is a personal choice you made rather than an evil that was forced on you.
    19 May 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line: If you thought the market cap was cheap last year, it should be still be cheap now with nearly the same cap. Except Axion received cash and moved forward with its design wins.

     

    To dwell on the past is to ignore the future. To obsess over missteps by management is nitpicking and armchair quarterbacking. Stay focused on the big picture.

     

    I thought one company had poor management in 2009 (MEAS) and didn't buy shares when it was at 2.50. I just checked today and the stock trades in 60's!

     

    I didn't see the big picture. The recovery of auto outweighed any other factor for MEAS. Similarly. the macro picture for hybrids and renewables is about to shift massively in favor for Axion.
    19 May 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure the other bottom-feeding Axionistas feel as guilty as I do about last year's incompetent financing. I must have missed the letter offering existing shareholders the same deal the PIPErs were given.
    19 May 2014, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The PIPErs effectively gave you the same deal. The question is did you take it or complain about it?
    19 May 2014, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    I added 100k shares at .0902. LOL!
    19 May 2014, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    I added 100k at .0907.
    19 May 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    ngs has a point. If we get good news that brings in buyers then winter 2013 will have been the bottom. If not, we are by definition looking at sales drought and a Q4 capital infusion accompanied by perhaps a printing on the order of 150-200 million more shares. While none of those shares would hopefully get pushed into the market, that is not certain. It remains possible and not remotely so that around this time next year there will be talk of the *next* financing in 2016, with cash burn rates not much better than today.

     

    Not sure the odds of this but it's not single digits. My chief complaint against management is that their information is too sparse so I have far too little to go on with which I might calculate odds for myself.

     

    The largest sale ever of PbCs in the $1.1M contract recently is excellent and foretells good things ahead. Question is when. Meanwhile the $1.1M with apparently a slim margin won't put much dent in the cash burn unfortunately.

     

    Finally, did anybody else notice that in the 10Q the tolling contract sales would appear to be made at breakeven cost? There is a funny accounting for "idle capacity cost" which I'm not sure the meaning of but the GAAP margin on Axion's sales appears to be zero. Be nice to get an explanation on that.
    19 May 2014, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    It is the CEO's job to maximize shareholder value, not the responsibility of Axionistas. Part of that responsibility is to get the company's story out to a wide enough audience that the share price more accurately reflects true underlying fundamental value. Part of that responsibility is to raise capital on terms that do not inherently pose a severe threat to share valuation. If share price becomes an obstacle to fulfilment of such responsibilities, then the share price needs to be adjusted in a manner that will make the stock a more suitable investment to a wider range of investors, particularly large investors. Fund limitations on the purchase of penny stocks are not something that developed only in the course of the past year!

     

    I understand that NDAs can pose a huge obstacle in fulfilling these responsibilities.
    19 May 2014, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • maplecorner
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I started by buying maybe 5,000 shares at .32, and since then have gotten up to almost 100,000 shares with an average cost of .14 , so I don't really feel diluted. Rather, I am almost grateful for the Pipe thing, as it allowed me to buy much more of the company stock than I would ever have expected to be able to afford. We will see soon if it all works out.
    19 May 2014, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    " The PIPErs effectively gave you the same deal. The question is did you take it or complain about it? "

     

    Existing shareholders who "took the deal" from the PIPErs paid an extra 15% - 20% with regularity. NOT "the same deal" by any stretch.
    19 May 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Since the PIPErs were selling almost as soon as they got the shares, pushing the price down, they sometimes got less than 15% return.

     

    Since I bought extra shares at .0907 and sold some of them at .13 to .18, I made anywhere from 43 to 98%. Some were able to sell above .20 for a potential over 100%.
    19 May 2014, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    Very happy for you jveal. Congratulations. Your success though does not change the fact that existing Axion shareholders at the time of the PIPE agreement were not offered the same deal given to the PIPErs.
    19 May 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Offering the same deal to existing stockholders would have been legally and economically impossible. The front end costs of an underwritten public offering to a widely distributed stockholder base start in the million dollar range and escalate rapidly.

     

    Companies do deals privately because it's the only cost effective way to raise less than $50 to $100 million. You can do a direct public offering to a few select investors for less, but not to several thousand people spread across 50 states and heaven knows how many foreign countries.
    19 May 2014, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "Offering the same deal to existing stockholders would have been legally and economically impossible. The front end costs of an underwritten public offering to a widely distributed stockholder base start in the million dollar range and escalate rapidly."

     

    Thank you for acknowledging that you misspoke in asserting, "The PIPErs effectively gave you the same deal."
    19 May 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    If you'll recall the sentence you objected to said "the PIPErs effectively gave you the same deal."

     

    I don't see a 15% to 20% price differential as material since discounts in that range are almost always available to block purchasers who face a completely different risk profile. I'm also not impressed by 20% warrant coverage.
    19 May 2014, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    For all you complainer, JP put in $1 million and received 400 K shares. That is $2.50 per share if my math is correct. He has taken his hits as have many other investors because he believes in the company and its technology. He has not made money on day trades because he is an investor.
    20 May 2014, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "I don't see a 15% to 20% price differential as material since discounts in that range are almost always available to block purchasers who face a completely different risk profile."

     

    The "same deal" is the "same deal", period. PIPErs did not offer their shares to axionistas at 15%-20% discount to market. Whether "discounts in that range are almost always available to block purchasers who face a completely different risk profile" is true or not the phenomenon is completely irrelevant to the statement I took issue with.
    20 May 2014, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    LarryM, your sentiments are valid regarding JP's stake in Axion, but none of your numbers are accurate IIRC.

     

    Taken from public documents, my notes are that JP holds 1,654,360 shares. I believe JP has commented at times that his basis is around $1.25 per share.

     

    It is my understanding that the bulk of his position, if not all, were shares received in respect of his services to Axion.
    20 May 2014, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    I didn't receive any shares for services, although I did negotiate a 50% reduction in the exercise price of a couple blocks of warrants (from $2 to $1 per share) in return for six figure billing write-downs. While I had 1.65 million shares in December 2009, the last few years in Switzerland were difficult and my current net position is a little over 1.2 million shares.
    21 May 2014, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    RDC,
    FWIF, I received a call from Dan Kennelly of Maxim this morning that stated something to the effect that Axion was doing a road show. Could the purpose could possibly be to get exposed to those with $$$? I don't know, just got a new batch of hopium in.

     

    That wasn't the purpose of the call but he mentioned it first off and I requested clarification since this was the first I had heard of a "road show".
    17 Sep 2014, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    User4, Thanks for the note. I have now read the latest entries on the up-to-date APC's. and see that DDG "presented" to Maxim's sales force, kicking off the road show (though I'm wondering what other sites for presentations there may be upcoming).
    17 Sep 2014, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1087) | Send Message
     
    Would someone be willing to do a brief definition of "road show"?

     

    RuggedDC, if DDG "presented" to Maxim's sales force, I would certainly be interested in what he said. Or would knowing what the sales force has been told be violating the "quiet period"? Do you by any chance know what DDG presented?

     

    Thanks for any replies.
    18 Sep 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    This from Investopedia

     

    Definition of 'Road Show'

     

    http://bit.ly/1uKQFf8

     

    And from Wiki

     

    http://bit.ly/1uKQFf9
    18 Sep 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    WiO, I have no further information to offer.

     

    I have declined any contact with Maxim, myself, and in this comment of mine was only interpreting-quoting something that had been said in one of the up-to-date APC's, I think by JP.
    18 Sep 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1081) | Send Message
     
    RDC, I do not understand your phobia with Maxim. The deal they did last year was totally different. If you still want to invest in Axion, there is no better deal out there than getting both shares and warrants. Even if you do not want to put more money in, learning about the offering and what they think of Axion, can be valuable.

     

    I any case, hey will treat you nicely.

     

    You need a cool head, not tripes, to invest successfully!
    18 Sep 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    There is no better deal IF there is a discount. There may not be one, and warrants may add to the deal price. The stock usually recovers after a financing as well. Except with Maxim you don't necessarily get to sell when you wish.
    18 Sep 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> I expect it would be easy to transfer Maxim account securities into a brokerage elsewhere and sell when and as you wish.
    18 Sep 2014, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1081) | Send Message
     
    There won't be a premium, apparently (including warrants).
    18 Sep 2014, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    HSeldon - welcome aboard

     

    A successful company in VC mode generally shows continuous increases in enterprise value (EV), ie, share $ times # of shares issued. Even in pre-IPO stages, the increase in EV is the most watched metric. Obviously, financial games like reverse splits have no impact on EV, and are very rare in VC land. Adding more capital almost certainly increases EV.

     

    Unsuccessful companies do not have increasing EV. Looking at JP's graph on his recent Instablog, http://seekingalpha.co..., you can see Market Capitalization, which is basically the same thing as EV. EV is from the opinions of the very few investors from VC land; Market Capitalization is sum of possibly millions of "voters" (investors) with opinions.

     

    Axion's EV (or MC) spikes instantaneously as new investors buy into the story, and then as they get over their hangovers and realize this wasn't such a good idea, exit. Current management keeps destroying EV. This is the classic chart of failure.

     

    IIRC, Axion has raised c. $90m. A well run company would have turned that into at least $180m of EV over a decade; in Silicon Valley anything less than 10x ($900m) is not considered a "win".
    Today, Axion's EV is about $30m.

     

    The declining EV graphs repeat. Ouch. No change in sight.
    19 May 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Basically you just said successful companies have increasing stock prices and vice versa. Might as well go with the Efficient Market Theory too and just invest in an index fund.
    19 May 2014, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6062) | Send Message
     
    Are yearly booked sales increasing over time?
    19 May 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Until November of last year the only PbC sales were for testing and evaluation purposes by potential customers.

     

    In November Axion booked the first end-user order for a PowerCube that will be used in a commercial activity. Last week Axion announced a follow on order from the same end-user for four additional systems.
    19 May 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (285) | Send Message
     
    I've watched the frequency regulation and energy storage market long enough to realize that many entities and potential customers were waiting for FERC tariffs to be passed before moving on purchases. As with most things, it took longer than many expected to actually implement the tariffs, but now that we are starting to see what the potential pay back is, I see sales moving faster as many that were sitting on the fence are now making purchasing decisions.
    19 May 2014, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John - Axion has been trying for many years to land the real sales that you now claim to be landmarks. The 2007 NYSERDA project was for a real end use, the 2008 Oil Platform project was for real end use, and I can go on and on if you like. I should also point out that the US Naval yard PowerCube was for real use and that sale was made nearly three years ago and it has been in real use ever since, so why was that not your landmark event three years ago. You are letting your training as a lawyer get in the way of admitting to the simple truths regarding Axion's numerous marketing failures and occasional successes.

     

    For what seem to be an Axion PR motivation, you want to make it look like management has done everything exactly by the numbers since day one and that all has gone the way that everyone should have expected it to go. I totally disagree, it seems clear to me, based on the facts, that extraordinary mistakes have been made and that those mistakes that have cost years of delay in gaining PbC market penetration which has thereby cost tens of millions of dollars given Axion's cash burn rate.

     

    You might be tempted to argue that the mistakes were unavoidable or to be expected but that would require you to be in possession of insider facts to support your argument, so let's don't go there.

     

    As I said the 10 Qs and Ks speak for themselves and it is not the pretty story that you are attempting to portray.
    19 May 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    NYSERDA was a government funded experiment.

     

    I never heard about an oil platform project in 2008.

     

    The Naval Yard was a government funded experiment.

     

    I think there's an immense difference in the decision making process when you're spending somebody else's money to prove something works vs spending your own money for the purpose of making money.

     

    My knowledge of the inner workings at Axion came to an end when the Quercus deal funded. Since then I have done my level best to communicate only when necessary and to keep the flow of information as uni-directional as possible. I don't mind providing information to Axion, but I don't want to receive information from Axion because I'm unwilling to bear that risk.

     

    Axion's SEC reports do speak for themselves, but they only speak on matters that are required disclosures under SEC rules and every sentence is carefully constructed to emphasize risk and protect the board and management from claims of overstatement, exaggeration or omission.

     

    Every R&D company I ever met was unduly optimistic about its timeline to commercial sales. Hell, the first SEC reports I wrote for Axion had it selling batteries for demonstrations within two years. Ooops.

     

    ePower is a perfect current example. Last summer Jay Bowman was all set to get his tractor on the road and start selling repower kits to the industry. Then he learned that he didn't have enough horses and had to upgrade the engine. That project was expected to take a few months and ended up taking a year. If you ask me today whether I believe the truck is ready my answer will be a guarded yes, because I want to see the fuel economy numbers first. That doesn't alter the risk that the first fleet owners may come back with a check list as long as my arm of things they want changed before they'll sign on the dotted line.

     

    The process is never over until the money's all been spent and the market gives its thumbs up or thumbs down. It has taken far longer than I would have imagined possible for the market to give its first thumbs up, but it's happening in stationary and I think it's likely to happen in trucking.

     

    You can only beat a dead horse for so long before you have a sloppy smelly mess on your hands. Let's bury the past and move on.
    19 May 2014, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    No problem for me so long as you stop trying to portray the Axion sow's ear as some kind of silk purse. :-))
    19 May 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The silk purse is a fully developed PbC battery that I've seen working in an extraordinarily demanding application. From my perspective Axion's story has always been about the battery and the battery has had a mind of its own since about 2006. It's a technology that refused to die.

     

    It doesn't surprise me that you and others find Axion's marketing weaker than it should be. I'm the first to tell anybody who'll listen that the board of directors ignored every warning I ever gave about what would happen to their stock price if Axion didn't spend adequate time and money communicating with their stockholders and the market and developing a loyal base.

     

    My warnings went in one ear and out the other and were met with outright hostility from some board members. When I started blogging in the summer of 2008 the average volume was a whopping 5,500 shares a day.

     

    The only reason Axion has a great stockholder base today is that some blabbermouth insisted on telling the story of the PbC battery that the board of directors refused to tell.

     

    I'm finally beginning to see signs of life in Axion's marketing programs for both its tangible product and its financial product. It's about damned time!

     

    There's plenty of blame to go around for all the things that were messed up in Axion's past, but I learned a long time ago that whenever I point my finger at somebody else I have three other fingers pointing back at me and I'd rather not go there.

     

    The battery is the only thing that matters and the battery is a magnificent beast.
    19 May 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Having a great product is only part of the equation. Axion either needs to market and sell its PbC products asap or sadly they should license or sell themselves to someone that can. You have been a bright light in the darkness on Axion but recent anemic volume shows that even your words can't rally longstanding Axionistas anymore. New investors and money are needed and this story is hard to tell now that its is a decade old and still no breakeven in sight. TG and company can barely build a website and their official IR is almost non existent. So how is Axion to spark the minds and wallets of the fence sitters.

     

    ""The battery is the only thing that matters and the battery is a magnificent beast.""
    19 May 2014, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    When spouse is beaten every day for four years running she/he gets timid and it takes time after the abuser is out of the picture for the victim to recover.

     

    We are seeing signs of life from Axion's management on several important marketing fronts, for both the tangible product and the financial product. As I said earlier it's about damned time.

     

    Right now everybody is frightened that there's still somebody out in the weeds ready to dump a bojillion shares as soon as the market shows a little life. There also seems to be a widespread conviction that "I'm in for the long haul but all those other make-believe Axionistas are going to flip out for nickels and dimes."

     

    I'm convinced that there are no other big holders who can savagely dump stock into the market. I'm also convinced that the substantial bulk of the buying over the last four years came from people who knew what they were buying and were swinging for the fences.

     

    The only thing that will prove me right or wrong is time.

     

    The NS 999 rolls within a month. Baring a calamity ePower will have its tractor hauling freight by the first week in June. Tom has told us there are other PowerCube projects in the sales funnel. Management even bit the bullet and asked for the reverse split that I would have thought a good idea in 2010.

     

    There's simply too much positive stuff going on for me to believe that disaster is imminent, or for that matter remotely possible.
    19 May 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Axion is a small company poorly capitalized and situated in the middle of nowhere. It can't do everything at a world class level, but I'm happy they focused on their core competency.

     

    For us shareholders it means we got to buy in at anomalous low prices. Were everything done right like a Silicon Valley venture backed start up, we'd be looking at paying for a billion dollar market cap in an IPO.

     

    Sometimes one needs to recognize when the bad is really the good.
    19 May 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    John. Are you convinced we have in fact achieved Z day?

     

    Sorry if this was pointed out as I missed a couple days and it's hard to catch up during such an active period.
    19 May 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    Disaster is relative term. Another year of poor pps performance seems like a disaster to me (and likely you) but others who are new in this name and have cost basis below 15 cents aren't going to be too worried even if the next transaction goes off near a dime.
    19 May 2014, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco> Yes I am.

     

    Bazoooka> The only reason the share price came anywhere near current levels is direct investors who behaved like savages and poured stock into an illiquid market. The rule of thumb is that selling stockholders can't account for more than 10% of daily volume without hurting the price. Axion has had four years where selling stockholders consistently accounted for over 40% of daily volume. It's a bloody miracle the price didn't go to fractions of a penny. I know that everybody wants to find a deeper reason than the laws of supply and demand because they believe all that nonsense about efficient markets. It's simply not true.

     

    The only way we see a continuation of the low stock price is if none of the events we expect to occur over the next few months happen.
    19 May 2014, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I agree with what you say about the past. But now that the stock is broken and Axionistas have spent their money it will be hard to find new demand. Sadly, the people who buy below 20 cents aren't the same types who will buy above 20 cents. And old axionistas likely don't have the spare cash or appetite for this name as they once did when they were buying from $1 to .50 cents. Many of the old line posters talk about lightening up on Axion and/or having trading blocks but few have averaged down this whole time and/or actually waited to move in their big money until now. The stock volume is telling us ZRPSOD is a yawn and the dog won't hunt anymore. Your posts and TG's proclamations and even recent sales not to mention all the supposed "good" thing that are coming aren't doing squat for the pps. To me that's a tell.
    19 May 2014, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The stock is not broken. It has bent but it never broke.

     

    Like a pendulum that was pushed to the 3 o'clock position, the laws of economic gravity and market physics require it to swing past the 6 o'clock position and ultimately hit at the 9 o'clock position before heading back in the other direction.

     

    You think in terms of the hundred or so Axionistas who comment here. Some of them claim to be way overweight and they may well be. I think in terms of the thousands of stockholders who have absorbed almost 200 million shares over the last four years. They are not all tapped out by a long shot, but they do want to make sure they won't get their heads blown off if they peek out of the foxhole.

     

    The stock volume is telling us ZRPSOD has happened. We won't know whether it's a yawn or a sea change event until the market has had a little time to heal.
    19 May 2014, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I've shown Axion to friends and family and all who look at say "interesting but I'm not touching a penny stock with a chart like that". You can explain it better than anyone but most people believe that the market is ultimately right. Fence sitters don't just jump in because of 1 Million dollar PowerCube sale with a placement on the horizon. I'm hard pressed to think of a realistic event that can move Axion up a quick 25% or so outside of more (and larger sales). I guess we will see on your supply and demand thesis but so far its been quiet. I hope I am wrong.
    19 May 2014, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    In the other cases where clients had major supply and demand imbalances I only recognized the dynamic in my rear view mirror when clients asked older and more experienced micro-cap specialists, "What in heavens name caused our stock to run like a scalded cat in the absence of meaningful news or any other identifiable catalyst?" The answer was always the same. The sloppy stock had all moved from the hands of people who wanted to sell to the hands of people who wanted to hold. When the market runs out of an adequate supply of sellers the price must rise to bring the weakest holders to a point where they're willing to sell.

     

    Somebody looking at Axion for the first time today would not be a buyer. Somebody who's been sitting on the sidelines watching and trying to time the bottom is another matter altogether. The same is true for watchers who were waiting for a first sale, a rolling NS 999, an ePower tractor in the hands of a fleet operator or an almost infinite variety of other factors.

     

    I can't tell you when he change will come, but I know to a certainty that it must come on the heels of ZRPSOD.
    19 May 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "The stock volume is telling us ZRPSOD has happened."

     

    Is it? Restricted cash held as of March 31, 2014 amounted to $1,566,678.
    19 May 2014, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    While the stock attributable to the April payment was issued in early March, the restricted cash would not be released until the due date. The same rules would apply to the May payment. ZRPSOD has come and gone and the current trading volume proves it beyond a shadow of a doubt.
    19 May 2014, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    zoooka: The biggest "tell" to me is at minimum the RS will hold a 20:1 ratio.

     

    Why not 10:1, or 5:1?

     

    What this implies is that there simply isn't enough potential sales in the pipeline slag to move the stock up significantly anytime before the next cap raise.

     

    If Axion management thought there was any chance of Axion becoming a $1.00 or even have a "PLUG-like" run up to $1.50+, we're talking at minimum that the post-RS share price would be $20.00 or $30.00. Far in excess of what is needed for an up listing.

     

    Another "tell" s what TG said about NSC in the CC:

     

    The “Final” NS-999 components will be assembled later this month, including our batteries. The expectation is at the locomotives will be on the road the first week in June. ***We’ve scheduled an inspection right in review meeting with Norfolk Southern in mid June. As part of that meeting, we will review the work outlined and discuss next steps for the over the road hybrid unit and feature all electric locomotives.*** We are optimistic and anxious to see our PbC batteries perform in a real world [ph] [graveyard] environment.

     

    The triple asterisked part of the above comment means to me that Axion won't anytime soon have another sale to Norfolk, as they haven't even yet discussed the next steps.

     

    Add in (I do like the promise of ePower) that ePower won't contribute any significant sales, and that the recent 4 POs won't all be fully up and running well into 2015, things don't bode well for significant sales forthcoming anytime soon.

     

    Again, for me, that hefty 20:1 RS ratio is a big huge tell that Axion leadership doesn't foresee any type of activity that will drive share price up significantly in the coming months.
    19 May 2014, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Even PLUG took almost a year to get from 12 cents to over a dollar. That is a fantastic run, but I don't think Axion's management should reasonably expect that.

     

    TG mentioned the OTR work back in January for the Crescent Line. NSC certainly has done work on it; the Oct update even mentioned it. Maybe not in June but I believe another order should be forthcoming. After all, NSC ordered the 999 batteries far in advance as well.

     

    When Axion filed the RS papers they couldn't make any predictions on stock rallies, but that still doesn't mean it can't happen.
    19 May 2014, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    Shame on me, Ramna. I forgot that Norfolk "curiously" likes to order PbCs 15 months before they need them.

     

    Yeah, I know...the prolonged testing...the delays nobody expected....
    19 May 2014, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Maya> Very interesting theory. If we suppose the Board wanted to reverse split engineer a $5.00 share price then the 1:20 to 1:50 ratio range suggests they believe the share price pre December will be in the $.10 to $.25 range. However if they wanted to engineer say an $8.00 price that would mean they expect a $.16 to $.40 range. Doesn't mean a "PLUG" style explosion couldn't happen but suggests they aren't expecting bombshell news.
    19 May 2014, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    RA: Since last Friday this quite simple idea that bloomed has been bugging me, and frankly, I wasn't too happy writing what I wrote above.

     

    But we have to look at all things from all the angles we can.
    19 May 2014, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    You make some good points and your opinions always hold weight with me. When I see guys like you a Stefan showing more caution (even HTL and ii) I sometimes think we all showed up to this party many years too early. Yes, I know I can grab some cheap shares know but still doesn't change the many years of disappoints results by TG and the gang.
    20 May 2014, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Maya, good to have you participating again.

     

    I'm sure the BOD has looked very hard at the worst case scenario as you describe above. It is only prudent for them to plan for that with all of the delays that have taken place. It would be a major misstep if they asked for too little and were unable to move to another exchange after a reverse split.

     

    The BOD has also left open the possibility of a huge ramp in share price and not taking the reverse split, even if approved by shareholders. So they have retained full flexibility no matter what the market does.

     

    Bottom of page 6 of SEC filing:

     

    "The reverse stock split, if approved by our stockholders, would become effective upon the filing of the amendment to our Certificate of Incorporation, as amended, with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, or at the later time set forth in the amendment. The exact timing of the amendment will be determined by our board of directors based on its evaluation as to if and when such action will be the most advantageous to our company and our stockholders. In addition, our board of directors reserves the right, notwithstanding stockholder approval and without further action by the stockholders, to abandon the amendment and the reverse stock split if, at any time prior to the effectiveness of the filing of the amendment with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, our board of directors, in its sole discretion, determines that it is no longer in our best interest and the best interests of our stockholders to proceed."
    20 May 2014, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
    20 May 2014, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    boilerplate
    20 May 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    RA> I always preferred the phrase "deathless prose" over boilerplate because securities lawyers work long and hard to get every sentence just right. We don't always succeed but we do always try.

     

    Maya> The reason the board chose a 1 for 20 to 1 for 50 range is that when corporations plan actions that must be submitted to stockholders for a vote they have to deal with the facts as they currently exist. There's simply no room in the planning process for hopes, aspirations and even expectations that things will change significantly.

     

    I've had to offer advice on several reverse splits over the years and I've always advised clients to use a higher ratio than they think they'll need because it's not one of those things where you want to run the risk of being wrong on your stabilized price estimates.

     

    If you cut the outstanding share total back too far you can always do a forward split or stock dividend to get the price and volume where you want them.

     

    If you don't cut the outstanding share total back far enough, you may find yourself going back to stockholders and saying "Ooops, we should have done a bigger reverse and we need to take another vote."

     

    The most common stockholder response to that kind of screw up is "Get a Rope."
    20 May 2014, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    I like the pendulum analogy. When the "pendulum" was dropped last year, the stock was at 29 cents. Absent any big sales news, we are in about the same place we were when it dropped. So theoretically, given the same demand, the most it can swing back, is right to where it left off at .29--except that there is now twice as much supply, so I would expect the swing back from the 0.09 low to be cut by half. That would put the stock at 0.19 when the rebound is complete. Then the pendulum gets dropped again in the next financing. The only thing that is going to push it above that level is SALES, and I'm talking BIG SALES, not just $1M every six months or so.
    20 May 2014, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The last time Axion had a reasonable market capitalization was Q1-10. Since that date there has been a never ending stream of very large holders who wanted to or had to sell for a variety of reasons. They invariably acted like savages.

     

    This was not a widespread phenomenon. Of the 170 million shares that have been dumped into the market over the last four years, a total of 9 holders accounted for 87% of the dumping and 63% of total sell-side volume.

     

    All that damage from 9 holders who chose to act like savages.

     

    Over the same period, several thousand investors accounted for 100% of the buy side volume.

     

    During the four years that the pendulum has been under immense pressure, the visible progress on the PbC technology has been breathtaking.

     

    The stock is not the corporation and the stock price is not the objective value of the corporation. It is nothing more than the price that 9 savages were willing to accept once they made a decision to sell.
    20 May 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    They should be busy lining up savage #10 right now. So you have about few months to let the stock run before the next beat-down. Some announced sales in that time could do wonders, maybe even get the stock up to 0.25. But I just don't see any rocket to $100M market cap while a reverse split and new round of financing are looming.
    20 May 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    Concerning the tractor that was on the road last summer (I assume it was the same one that I rode in at the annual meeting), despite the hp issue, would it have been possible to leave it with Keane Thummel to haul smaller loads to continue to test mpg and durability while you worked on the upgrade to the new engine in another chasis?
    20 May 2014, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Keene didn't want a tractor that couldn't haul the loads he needs to haul every day. Neither will anybody else in the industry.

     

    We might have been able to sell the second generation tractor to Frito Lay and other haulers of very light cargo, but we made an affirmative choice to keep working until we could satisfy 80% to 90% of the trucking industry's weight hauling requirements instead of settling for less.
    20 May 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (744) | Send Message
     
    Bravo to ePower!
    20 May 2014, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    You can only make a "First Impression" once.
    20 May 2014, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    If you could have found someone to run the Gen 2 tractor it was not an easy nor a perfectly clear cut choice to take this path as I'm sure you and your team are well aware. Were the overriding concerns such as timing for the next Gen tractor and money the primary reasons for this path?

     

    i know I'd sure like to see some run time on the system for some shake out of longer term bugs and a building of confidence.

     

    Also I'm biased because this would be best for Axion IMO.
    20 May 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The second generation tractor was built in reliance on a regulatory loophole. It didn't have to comply with EPA emissions requirements for on road engines because the rules aren't broad enough to cover a diesel that's only connected to a generator, even if its mounted on a truck chassis.

     

    With the new funding that came in last fall, we decided that it made more sense to take our game up a notch now than to get started down a road that would inevitably lead to a major roadblock. Besides, the truck we'll have rolling next week is the truck Jay has wanted to build since 2010 but couldn't afford to build.

     

    We figure there's only one opportunity to make a good first impression, and you can't do that if you're playing the loopholes or trying to hawk a tractor that can't do the work most fleets need it to do.
    20 May 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    I understand your points as you've clearly expressed them before. I agree with your longer term path.

     

    I just feel a parallel exercise would be worth the cost if you could afford it for a period of time. Some customer with a low mass cubed out route would have clearly understood your explanation. Anyway, my points still stand but they are mine.

     

    It's your show and I'm watching.
    20 May 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps Cummins has a 4 banger that might be useful for lighter loads? Such as potato chips or UPS.

     

    I realize this is a 'someday we'll look into it', proposal.
    Delivery trucks do seem like a good fit, and have much lighter loads.
    20 May 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The delay has cost us nine months, but the mechanical changes will be finished this week and it will only take a couple days to change a few settings in the controls. We expect to have a solid idea of exactly how the tractor performs by the end of next week. You're literally trying to find a way to shorten the waiting period when the waiting period is already over.
    20 May 2014, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    John, No. I was thinking of a parallel path to do some of the shakedown of the technology and to get some buzz going if things progressed well. As hiccups arose these would then be behind you on the next gen tractor. Complex programs often have parallel initiatives to manage risk where suitable.
    20 May 2014, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... There is also the Warm & Fuzzy feeling for the customer knowing that the primary power plant is something they know very well. Even as the rest of the system is a mystery.
    20 May 2014, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... You're more or less in the region. Spend some time down at the local teamster diner. Get to know some of them and see if you can pick-up on or even instigate some interest after the ePower truck has been on the road.

     

    In my opinion, word of mouth will likely out shine almost anything ePower's PR might achieve. I don't know ... maybe offer a free breakfast to the first driver that reports a sighting of NESSIE.
    20 May 2014, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    DRich, you're right. If this thing is out there performing and putting drivers and companies in a place of financial advantage vs the pack the buzz will be deafening. But there needs to be some level of confidence because they have seen lots of new technology fall short of durability expectations.

     

    Hey, just like automobile drivers!
    20 May 2014, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Yes, much technology fall short on the durability but the point is that it got its day in the sun.
    20 May 2014, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Yes, and some of the issues were resolved before they killed the tech. But the key needs to be to make it to market at some point.

     

    What was that about shooting the engineer?
    20 May 2014, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    We have our first three "on the road" demonstration stages planned for both the sleeper and the day cab.

     

    Our first stage involves a local independent trucker who *should* start hauling brokered freight with the sleeper in the first week of June. Once the sleeper is on the road working, our team will turn its focus to finishing the day cab and responding to any breakdowns or problems that arise with the sleeper.

     

    When the day cab is finished, hopefully within a month, we'll turn the day cab over to our independent trucker and turn the sleeper cab over to the FedEx contractor who sold us the day cab. He'll use the sleeper for a few weeks hauling cargo for FedEx and then repeat the process with the day cab.

     

    If we don't run into any major problems with the independent trucker and the FedEx contractor, the third stop for both tractors will be a large national carrier that's based in our area and runs a 13,000 tractor fleet. They've given us a tick list of their general requirements. If we satisfy those requirements things could get interesting very quickly. If we have more work to do, we'll figure out the next steps when the time comes.
    21 May 2014, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for sharing the roll out strategy.
    21 May 2014, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    "They've given us a tick list of their general requirements." - JP

     

    Am I assuming correctly that the delays have been to be sure that these are all ticked off?
    21 May 2014, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The research and development process is never delayed. The basic rule of all research and development is the process takes twice as long and costs twice as much as the planners anticipate, but only if everything goes smoothly. The problems are individually unexpected but absolutely predictable in the aggregate. What is not predictable is the time required to find solutions.

     

    If you want me to keep answering questions, please stop using the word delay because it's simply not appropriate or useful.

     

    The input we've received from the trucking industry has helped us establish our overall project goals. In some areas like hauling capacity and weight limits we view the requirements as challenges. In others like fuel economy we think we can beat the requirements by a wide margin.

     

    I don't know whether we'll be able to check off every item on the list, but we're trying. I believe that falling a little short on a couple items can be offset by overshooting others. The ultimate decision on the question of whether our best will be good enough is not mine to make.
    21 May 2014, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    bazooka, for the past couple of months I've been still adding about 2500 shares/month of AXPW. The only reason I am not buying more is because I am adding shares to other companies I own. I more than tripled my share count of AXPW when the PIPErs knocked the price way down and now the % value that AXPW is to my portfolio is way to high for my comfort, so I am adding to my other holdings.

     

    I don't know why you think other shareholders are not doing the same as I or that they have bought all the shares they ever will. I do think the reverse split announcement may have put the brakes on some buying until the facts and the ratio of the split are disclosed and also how the stock behaves after the split.
    21 May 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2804) | Send Message
     
    Right on John - it's a matter of identifying necessary requirements and the objectives for the application, defining and meeting goals, addressing strengths and weaknesses, and the working thru the projects or chores addressing those identified weaknesses with the resources available or required to progress; all of this according to a timetable which itself has some determined or defined milestones.

     

    Delays? Or whatever they may be called, occur if Murphy's Law exists. And which are appropriate for a streamlined, fixed schedule manufacturing line. Also OK for a NASCAR race.

     

    Delays may be ok when talking about causes for resource restrictions within R&D, but pushing science itself generally does not have delays. There are advances and no advances; delays?, not so much.

     

    Off pedestal.
    21 May 2014, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2804) | Send Message
     
    PS - same logic for "going commercial" as for R&D.
    21 May 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    Maya, what does the 50:1 RS tell you now?
    16 Sep 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    zooooka: It tells me what we already all know; that for the past couple of years, for some reason, or many reasons, that PbC sales have been beyond disappointing.

     

    It also implies something else. It has been my belief for at least two years that the PbC is not cheap. Why else have these boxes full of RFPs not produced more results?

     

    Is it communication issues? Is it that Axion stinks at writing convincing ROI proformas for grid applications? Or is it that Axion's sales staff simply can't write a competitive bid because the PbC simply isn't competitive in price?

     

    Or even worse, that prospective buyers look at Axion's chart, and then combine that with the routine cap raises (due to lack of sales), then see that Axion is laying off, and from that and whatever else, decline to sign the dotted line for fears that Axion will not be in its current form come a few years from now.

     

    It simply baffles me that since the automated carbon sheeting line was built, and from that the pricing of the PbC should have dropped, and yet, in all of these around 21 months, Axion has only sold to Bysolar, and even that project is clouded in delays and opaqueness.

     

    What I want to know is what will NASDAQ think when Axion's revenues plummet to next to nothing after the toll contract ends?

     

    I just hope I am way wrong.
    16 Sep 2014, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Ouch Maya, the truth hurts.
    16 Sep 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    No sugar in that response. Thanks for the reality check.
    16 Sep 2014, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Once Nasdaq approves a listing, the continued listing standards are more flexible and the only way to get the boot is with a sub-$1 stock price or stockholders equity approaching zero.

     

    It's clear to me that the Nasdaq listing is a done deal at this point. There is no good reason to worry that the listing will somehow be lost in the reasonably foreseeable future.
    17 Sep 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    NASDAQ wants new business. They WANT their fees. Will they turn down money, and spend money doing deep due diligence? No way! You pay, they list.
    17 Sep 2014, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The road show would not have started without approval of the listing application in hand. The road show has started. Therefore there is no question in my mind that the upgrade is a done deal.
    17 Sep 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    I'll agree that there's no doubt now that the up listing is going to occur.

     

    Axion is EXTREMELY lucky that the toll contract with East Penn is still alive through this quarter. If the toll contract was phased out in 2Q, I'm having trouble with how Axion would meet NASDAQ up listing revenue requirements.

     

    I'm looking at this up listing as a hollow kind of event. Because if DGD's road show doesn't produce, then it's looking more and more like Axion would not have qualified for the up listing, if the up listing somehow was delayed until the 4th Q.

     

    In other words, Axion's criteria to get up listed is largely based upon a revenue stream that will soon no longer exist.

     

    Your ePower presentation was fantastic, John!

     

    I only wish, as I'm sure you do, too, that ePower was two years ahead of where you/they are now.
    17 Sep 2014, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Axion will qualify under the "Equity Standard" on page 9.

     

    http://bit.ly/TomC9i

     

    Revenue is not a relevant consideration and fears that revenue may decline I the future are doubly irrelevant.

     

    It's also with noting that Axion had $5.6 million in equity at the end of Q2 and the recent exchange of warrants for stock increased equity by about $2.1 million. So there is no risk that it would lose its qualification after accounting for the Q3 loss.

     

    In any event, Nasdaq's analysis for an upgrade in connection with an underwritten offering always includes the offering proceeds.
    17 Sep 2014, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    JP: "The road show has started."

     

    How do we know this? And what are the "stops" on the road show?!?
    17 Sep 2014, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Who exchanged their warrants (old placement warrants and/or recent PIPErs)? Why were the warrants not just adjusted for the recent split instead?

     

    Should this 2M dollar worth of stock be considered part of the elephant that we are trying to eat to straighten out the float imbalance?

     

    "the recent exchange of warrants for stock increased equity by about $2.1 million"
    17 Sep 2014, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Rugged> I spoke with Maxim today and they told me the road show kick-off with DDG and crew was yesterday morning while TG was with me in Novi.

     

    Bazoooka> In July Axion exchanged 29 million old shares for the outstanding senior warrants held by the PIPErs. For accounting purposes those warrants gave rise to a "derivative liability" that was carried on the balance sheet. When the exchange happened, the derivative liability was converted to equity.

     

    While the shares issued to the PIPErs will create a minor supply imbalance, the selling restrictions will make the imbalance manageable and the 600,000 shares remaining in the PIPErs hands shouldn't give rise to any problems. The big difference between yesterday and today is that yesterday the PIPErs had make whole rights and today they don't. If they push the price down they'll simply be harming their own investment value.
    18 Sep 2014, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    >John Petersen, "Rugged> I spoke with Maxim today and they told me the road show kick-off with DDG and crew was yesterday morning while TG was with me in Novi. ..."

     

    I assume TG is referring to Tom Granville, if so I am glad to hear he was able to bear witness and perhaps do some 'Glad Handing' himself. Health battles can be very challenging physically, emotionally, and financially. While there are some here that feel entitled to greater vehemence due to the volume of stock they own, I would bet there are few if any as INVESTED in Axion as Mr. Granville. I hope his battle is progressing well and his investment will offset/alleviate all the financial stress of his current ordeal, sooner rather than later.
    18 Sep 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    JP: "while TG was with me in Novi"

     

    Now that's a real teaser of a remark...
    18 Sep 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Tom was part of the Axion contingent that came to Novi to support our efforts at The Battery Show. Mike Romeo, Jack Shindle and Vani Dantam were also doing their part. I had hoped that the show might be an opportunity to meet DDG for the first time, but he had more important fish to fry.
    18 Sep 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    The only net effect they can have is by pushing the price down since they surely haven't bought any stock in the open market. And why would they? Heck, even though they were made whole with the floorless convertible they also walked away with millions in equity with has a cost basis of zero. Also this may explain why ZRPSID was never reached. It is doubtful they are sitting on and holding these shares.

     

    ""If they push the price down they'll simply be harming their own investment value.""
    18 Sep 2014, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    I was in Vancouver at the time of the announced reverse split

     

    Never held shares on a company that has executed this.

     

    Seems to make sense

     

    I assume there will be a vote to approve and hence TG's far more open and friendly tones in the CC

     

    Do we have a date - or even a feel for when such a vote will be cast

     

    Once cast and approved I assume we would have full details and even the suggested timing for the split itself?
    19 May 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The company filed a preliminary proxy statement on April 30th and it will need to file a definitive version before the final is mailed to stockholders.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1g5r9r3

     

    What they're asking for is authorization for the board to implement a reverse split of not less than 1 for 20 nor more than 1 for 50 anytime before the end of the year.

     

    With the way the solicitation is structured, I *think* the plan is to combine the next financing round, a reverse split and a listing upgrade to the Nasadq in a single package. I've done a packaged series of transactions a couple different times and the combination always worked out well because the stockholders felt like they were gaining something rather than losing something.
    19 May 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    JP, I've read your NASDAQ listing requirements comments and blog. One requirement that seems to be ignored is the $50m market capitalization requirement. Axion is just above $30m at present. While every wants to get to $50m, it does not seem likely before end of 3rd quarter

     

    Alternately, $5m equity gets you in, too. The March balance sheet showed $6.6m, but with a $2m burn rate per quarter, it seems the BoD runs out of time by June 30.

     

    What am I missing? It appears pretty long odds to get NASDAQed, even if the reverse split proposal is passed.

     

    19 May 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    The $10m question:

     

    Actually, what is Axion's market cap? Google Finance at 13:40 5/19 (now, today) notes $30.6m.

     

    HOWEVER, Axion says http://bit.ly/1sLKQda $19.2m (20 min delay).

     

    Both show 17 cent stock and appear to be live feeds.

     

    Which number is correct for NASDAQ?
    19 May 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5218) | Send Message
     
    TG left some wiggle room and mentioned a few other exchanges....the NASDAQ is not a given unless AXPW meets the criteria....American stock exchange or others are still options.
    19 May 2014, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Your understanding of what's happened in the market over the last four years completely ignores the mother of all supply and demand imbalances that recently rectified itself. I've openly stated that I expect the stock to climb back to a far more reasonable level as soon as holders quit jumping at their own shadows.

     

    As near as I can tell, management wants to wrap a reverse split, a financing and a market upgrade in the same package. If you do it properly, the new equity gets counted toward meeting the Nasdaq standards and so do the new shares. In most cases, you can maneuver everything into place before pulling the trigger on anything. I've done it a couple times. There's no magic, just careful planning and execution.
    19 May 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    JP, I wasn't going back four years; I was asking about the next three months.

     

    Are you saying the path to get to $50m market cap is to raise $20m within three months, unless the stock rises 2.5 times, from 17 to 45 cents or so?
    19 May 2014, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    I'm saying the last time Axion had a rational market cap it was $100 million and the current rational market cap is several times that amount because of the tremendous progress Axion has made since early 2010.

     

    Sometimes the stock market is a moron, particularly when a small handful of overweight stockholders behaves like savages. The good news is the savages of the past are now wholly irrelevant because they don't have any shares to sell. This entire company is firmly in control of the Axionistas who don't yet recognize or understand their immense power.
    19 May 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "it will need to file a definitive version before the final is mailed to stockholders."

     

    Wasn't that done with http://bit.ly/1qPMmiJ ?

     

    Axion's web site labels it "DEFA14A Additional Proxy Soliciting Materials (definitive)" and the first page of the filing itself includes

     

    "Definitive Consent Solicitation Statement

     

    ¨ Definitive Additional Materials "
    19 May 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I appreciate the fact that Axionistas are in charge of the company, but what concrete steps can we really take? We are not going to start working on behalf of Axion and doing their hype, marketing campaign. They should do that themselves, otherwise what are they paid to do??!!!

     

    The failure of marketing and getting the word out is exclusively New Castle's fault, and they are the only ones who can do something about it!
    19 May 2014, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "This entire company is firmly in control of the Axionistas who don't yet recognize or understand their immense power. "

     

    I'd say some of us do fully understand.
    19 May 2014, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    JP, I realize Axion HAD a market cap of $100m. Yes, the market can stay irrational longer than you/me/Axion can stay solvent. Yes, we think the "savage" share dumpers are gone. All that is history.

     

    For the future three to six months, when Axion needs to raise funds, I was asking (trying to understand) what are the most feasible path(s).

     

    I repeat myself: "Are you saying the path to get to $50m market cap is to raise $20m within three months, unless the stock rises 2.5 times, from 17 to 45 cents or so?"

     

    Is this correct, or have I misunderstood the short-term financing road ahead?

     

    You wrote about the "rational market cap"; I think I would call that Enterprise Value. If the current EV is nine digits, and it is merely the moron market that is out of kilter, there should be a line of investors who want in knocking at TG's door. AFAIK, there is no line.

     

    You wrote: "This entire company is firmly in control of the Axionistas who don't yet recognize or understand their immense power." I really don't understand this statement, can you explain? Maybe I am just too slow today.
    19 May 2014, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    I took JPs comment to suggest the next investors would pony up enough cash for stock to get solidly above the >$5M equity criterion. So, the $50M market cap would not be necessary.
    19 May 2014, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Rick, if I could be so bold as to add to your discussion with JP regarding the market cap of $50m. I don’t know if you’re trying to drive home the point that Axion needs to update their web site, as they show 113,211,091 shares, or if you really have forgotten how many shares Axion has outstanding. But with 221.5m shares, Axion’s market cap hits $50m at a price per share of .226. Assuming those shares are held by investors who envision a brighter future for this company, a market cap of $50m seems controllable by the current shareholders.
    19 May 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Rick> I will be really depressed if Axion only does a lousy $10 million survival round. This company needs a solid financial foundation and except for a brief period in early 2010 it has never had one. Axion needs more and better marketing, but you can't get more and better marketing without the cash to pay your staff and their expenses.

     

    What I said was between a combination of a better market price that I believe is right around the corner, a significant capital raise which I pray management can put together and a little clever lawyering, a Nasdaq Capital Market listing is a slam dunk and with a little luck we'll end up with a Nasdaq Global Market listing, which is what I'd rather see.
    19 May 2014, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    I would like to see Axion raise at least $20M in the next round. I think that could actually be enough to see them through to a revenue ramp that approaches break-even or better. However, my feeling is that that kind of money would could cost them half the equity in the company, depending on discount to market.
    19 May 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Do you have, based on your history of working with TG, enough confidence in him to actually pull such a stunt?

     

    While I am quite encouraged by the recent purchase orders and the fact things are starting, just starting to look favourable, I don't want to have high expectations, only to see them crushed in the end.
    19 May 2014, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    John> If the thought of $10M for mere survival depresses you then in effect you're saying you believe substantial cash flow from sales and customer advances is not forthcoming.

     

    If ramping sales were to cut the cash burn rate in half, then $10M would stretch out to fund twice as much runway until the next infusion. Thus $10M would be plenty.
    19 May 2014, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    RA, you would also need to be purchasing more equipment for more manufacturing lines if the demand picks up very much.
    19 May 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    "my feeling is that that kind of money would could cost them half the equity in the company, depending on discount to market. "

     

    ngs> Double like. I fear this may be likely which is why I am waiting to see how dilutive the financing will be before reestablishing my very heavy overweight in AXPW. I do risk the price taking off before then and then I'd largely miss out but I think the prudent thing in my financial situation is to think return of capital first and return on capital second.
    19 May 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    RA, True. But you could also look at it to mean they don't see anything big in the near futures as well. Something bigger soon would require monies to scale.
    19 May 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    Of course, last year, they gave away half the company for only $9M, so getting $20M for half the company would be a vast improvement.
    19 May 2014, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    kevin, thanks for the reply. I guess I didn't pay enough attention to Axion's website; foolish me thought it should be authoritative.

     

    23 cents may be possible.
    19 May 2014, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    jveal> If Axion books orders that require ramped production we can be sure the stock and thus market cap will leap. Once the stock leaps and orders are booked the pps that the financing goes off at will be considerably higher, i.e. much more than $10M could easily be raised with less dilution factor. Also cash advances on the orders would help in funding the expansion.
    20 May 2014, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    RA: If Axion can't ramp sales before the toll contract winds down, that means __________?
    20 May 2014, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    May,

     

    That's what makes this a very interesting page in this chapter of Axion! Will Axion actually get those multi-meg PowerCube orders for frequency reg as hinted by TG or not? If Axion were to announce just one multi-meg PowerCube install what would that do to the ranks of the non believers?

     

    "In a separate initiative with investors, we continue to pursue site selection for multi mega-watt systems that would service the frequency regulation market. Our 1.25 megawatt and 2.5 megawatt building block our sweet spots for this market."

     

    I am wondering who exactly is participating in the "site selection" process? Who would know better where the need for frequency response is needed more than the grid operator? I am not thinking the investment group is making the selection nor do I think Axion is. I would think the grid operator would be saying we need X-meg of FR in this location and that location near these substations!

     

    I do not think it should be difficult for the grid operator to determine where they need the PowerCubes located. I am just "hoping" that TG has this card up his sleeve to play soon!

     

    Place your bets!
    20 May 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Maya> Good question. I have no idea. From what TG said I thought Axion is in the driver's seat with the toll contract meaning EP is willing to continue it but Axion wants to phase it out.

     

    I find Axion's cost of sales numbers to be very curious. On their face it would seem Axion's sales are being made at cost but there must be some overhead allocation in that cost which is unusual accounting.

     

    Maybe the toll contract winding down won't hurt cash burn much as they could trim employee hours or something?

     

    I have no idea.
    20 May 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    In 2010 when there was no toll contract Axion lost $8 million after adjusting for non-cash derivative revaluation income. In 2011 when there was a toll contract Axion lost $8.5 million after adjusting for non-cash derivative revaluation income.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1njI2Ta

     

    The toll contract has been a great way to hire and train production staff and establish a basic manufacturing competence, but it hasn't made a meaningful contribution to overhead that I can see.
    20 May 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Rick> The only sure way I know of to figure market cap is to go to the latest 10-Q (10-K) and take outstanding shares plus add a fudge factor for outstanding warrants and options that are in or close to the money and any other pending share issuances. Then multiply the result by current share price.

     

    Using any financial site feeds for market cap can get you into big trouble. For example during the PIPE repayment period those feeds only reflected outstanding shares per the most recent filing, but we all knew tens of millions more shares would be issued to satisfy the convertible debt.

     

    It pays to be forward looking at market cap. Now it is technically $.161 X ~225 million shares = $36.2 million. This fall with a cash infusion of probably $10-$20 million at the cost of some unknown number of shares one can only guess what the financing will do the market cap. Hard to say but it should boost it rather than shrink it unless pps changes in a big way.
    20 May 2014, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    John
    I'm thinking that the tool contract probably paid for some improvements too.
    People at the last shareholder meeting mentioned a few things, such as:
    The switch from a flooded line to an AGM line.
    The floor of the factory was repaired.

     

    Things that wouldn't have much effect on the books, but would make things better.
    20 May 2014, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (448) | Send Message
     
    Rick: It appears one of the Axionistas has developed quite the anger issue towards you. I wonder why they felt the need to write about it on Yahoo under a new alias and not here..

     

    http://yhoo.it/1nmoBJi
    20 May 2014, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Futurecartsla, I doubt it's someone from here. It's one of the Yahoo parasites acting like an idiot and nothing more. Unfortunately that's what the Yadoodle board mostly turned into.
    20 May 2014, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (448) | Send Message
     
    whomever it is sure acts like an idiot, that's true.
    20 May 2014, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about this crew is that we're not the least bit afraid to confront people who need to be confronted. I may disagree with much of what Rick has to say, but I can't criticize him for speaking his truth. I'd be ashamed if I thought one of members was posting that kind of drivel anywhere on the net.
    20 May 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Pavlof
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    dimca, It does indeed seem to make sense but the facts are different. Upwards to 75% of small cap companies (under 500 million dollars) that are involved in a reverse splits lose value or even go bankrupt. Axion doesn't even qualify as a small cap but rather a nano cap with under a 50 million dollars cap. The odds are this is not going to turn out well. People can spin it however they want just like they said the PIPE was a good thing or the dilution was a good thing. It is spin. Look at the value of the stock between now and 2008 and tell me that these things were good things. Facts, not hype, not spin.
    21 May 2014, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Correlation is not causation.
    21 May 2014, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    That's funny. Thanks for the laugh. I could make a guess on his alias here.... but I won't.

     

    So he is anonymous here.. and has to stay anonymous there...what a petty life
    21 May 2014, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    If you were given the option right now of accepting a tender offer of .50 a share or holding your shares through the 20-1 reverse split, with a following 20% drop, would you take the tender offer?

     

    How much "gold fever" do you have? How strong is your belief that the PbC is the future and at some point the market will take notice?
    21 May 2014, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "How strong is your belief that the PbC is the future and at some point the market will take notice? "

     

    Belief in the PbC and belief in Axion are two different things. PbC has a bright future IMO. Axion had potential in the past and could have it in future with a change in management.
    21 May 2014, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP

     

    From your experience how you see AXPW moving forward as to timing and best execution

     

    I would assume you want to - gain approval - announce some positive news - and then trigger - but perhaps there would also be some positive news before/as management and the BOD seek approval
    19 May 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Who am I? Why am I here?

     

    http://bit.ly/1qPHoTl

     

    Substitution of battery technologies would impact significantly on passenger cars, says new study - 19/05/2014

     

    " The study, A Review of Battery Technologies for Automotive Applications, concludes that lead-based batteries will by necessity remain the most wide-spread energy storage system in automotive applications for the foreseeable future. Their low cost and unparalleled ability to start the engine at cold temperatures sets them apart in conventional and basic micro-hybrid vehicles, and as auxiliary batteries in all other automotive applications."

     

    " 2. Hybrid vehicles, including advanced micro-hybrid, mild-hybrid and full-hybrid vehicles rely on the battery to play a more active role, with the energy stored from braking used to boost the vehicle's acceleration. In full-hybrid vehicles, the stored energy is also used for a certain range of electric driving.

     

    Several battery technologies are able to provide these functions in different combinations, with nickel-metal hydride and lithium-ion batteries coping best as requirements increase, due to their fast recharge, good discharge performance and life endurance. At high voltages, lead-based batteries are so far limited by their more modest recharge and discharge power and capacity turnover."
    19 May 2014, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Oops, Forgot the important link. Basically the study Stefan linked below.

     

    http://bit.ly/1sLTzfm
    19 May 2014, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Vani -

     

    Could we get a cold call out to Greensmith? Looks like they are battery agnostic and looking to integrate new batteries also ... TIA.

     

    http://bit.ly/1sLMw6x
    19 May 2014, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Let's get a PC/Hub out to UCSD also. Could install next ZBB's bank of batteries and test theory of combining the batteries in a system.

     

    “We can save companies two years,” said Washom. “That is critical in getting from the lab to market.”

     

    “UCSD is a great place to showcase technology,”

     

    http://bit.ly/1sLN0JW

     

    "BMW and RWE have installed a shipping container filled with electronic controllers and worn-out car batteries on a circuit with a 330-kilowatt PV system. Washom said they’ll run the batteries “until rigor mortis sets in,” then do an autopsy to find the exact cause of death."

     

    Maybe BMW has some worn out Pbcs they could use also?
    19 May 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1614) | Send Message
     
    I for one don't see any benefit.

     

    “UCSD is a great place to showcase technology,” said Christopher Kuhl of ZBB Energy. “Our battery systems are intended to be in retail applications, so this was not quite in its intended setting. It shows what you can do with it, but doesn’t demonstrate commercial application.”

     

    We already have a PowerCube in a commercial application.
    19 May 2014, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    P.Y. -

     

    You don't realize the number of people that visit and tour the USCD microgrid. It has been at the forefront of testing cutting edge technology and everyone that does a tour would hear the Axion name as a potential battery provider. Axion will not get that much signage at a small solar installation in NJ.
    19 May 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    "...worn out PbCs...."

     

    Damn, that's a good one Stephan!
    19 May 2014, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Stefan - I don't think Vani follows the APC closely. If you think Greensmith is worth pursuing, drop him a note directly.
    21 May 2014, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    Agree Rick
    There was something about their lawyers advising them not to follow this.
    (Probably too much temptation to answer a question or two.)
    21 May 2014, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    >froggey77 ... I don't believe there would be any temptation toward any action at all. I would equate much of the Corporate Governance Advice that could be garnered from this APC as equivalent to that of Sidewalk Supervisors.
    21 May 2014, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    At the annual meeting, I was told that Axion employees do in fact follow the APCs.

     

    And even if not, the article came from the energystoragenews.com website. If that article comes up in VD's feed and bells don't immediately go off ... well, then maybe that's why sales are anemic.
    21 May 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    froggey, if Axion's lawyers are telling them not to READ possibly useful information, they need new lawyers.

     

    Answering, OK, that might be trouble. Not reading is almost dereliction of duty.
    21 May 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    On September 27, with respect to the AGM, I posted:

     

    "I asked TG whether he or anyone else at Axion pays any attention to this APC blog.

     

    His response was to say that some time back he used to personally look at it occasionally, but that he's received legal opinions from two sources that it is unwise to do so, as the company could be sued for either commissions or omissions with either saying something or NOT saying something with respect to any of its content.

     

    Thus it is Axion company policy to IGNORE our little forum.

     

    He admitted that some employees (on their own) might look at the blog, but that they'd generally be advised not to…"
    22 May 2014, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rugged
    I went looking for your comment (I didn't remember who had posted it) but I couldn't find it.
    22 May 2014, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Small shout out for automotive lead carbon batteries:

     

    http://bit.ly/1sLQfko
    19 May 2014, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Interesting document classifying different types of cars and requirements for batteries from a consortium of battery makers:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qPKN4s

     

    Given the sponsors of the report, not surprising that lead carbon seems to be downplayed.
    19 May 2014, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    The article calls them a PbC.
    19 May 2014, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Yes, But they are ignoring Axion's attachment to that and using it to mean w/ carbon in the active NAM.
    19 May 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    PbC is a trademark name owned by Axion, they can't possibly use it without a nod from Axion, or can they???
    19 May 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    So is PowerCube. Do a Google search of "powercube".
    19 May 2014, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    The full report w/ PbC w/ registered trademark symbol mentioned as an advancement along with carbon enhanced NAM and the Ultrabattery on PDF pg 59.

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQsHzg
    19 May 2014, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    iidelco - Google "trademark powercube" and dozen trademarked powercubes show up on the first page.

     

    Note that Google search is case-insensitive, so it does not matter how you capitalize it.
    19 May 2014, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Maybe some day they will bolster their better DCA lead acid battery line?

     

    Johnson Controls to spin off interiors business to Chinese automaker

     

    http://on.freep.com/1s...
    19 May 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    I can hear the goat now. Nah nah nah.

     

    After 150,000 Miles, UltraBattery Civic HEV to Become Mobile Battery Lab

     

    "Now that the ALABC’s UltraBattery Honda Civic demonstration hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has surpassed 150,000 miles of real world fleet duty, the Consortium is offering member battery manufacturers an opportunity to rent the vehicle for their own battery testing. The Honda Civic hybrid was originally retrofitted with East Penn’s lead-carbon UltraBattery modules, but will now serve as a “battery lab on wheels” to test other lead-acid and lead-carbon battery designs in mild HEV duty."

     

    http://bit.ly/1qQ0cSo
    19 May 2014, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    "“Now we are offering other ALABC members a chance to rent this vehicle and determine how their own batteries perform under mild hybrid conditions."

     

    Sounds like a modified page out of ePower's new playbook.
    19 May 2014, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1051) | Send Message
     
    Clearly the UltraBattery meets the "good enough" standard for this mild hybrid application. Does anyone have any idea how the UB price would compare to a PbC per KWh?
    19 May 2014, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Does your "nah" suspect that TG will pass on this opportunity (again). The ALABC seems to have a pretty good PR machine so I'm not sure why Axion wouldn't want to be involved with a "battery lab on wheels" scenario. We've been told (and shown in graphs) how great the PbC is; so why not go out there and let others blow their trumpet about this "magnificent beast" of a battery. EPower needs a friend in tell the automotive market how great Axion is.
    19 May 2014, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    As I understand the situation of testing lead carbon batteries in the ALABC's Honda Civic test vehicle, Honda has not given the ALABC access to the internal code in the ECM, nor has Honda signed on to this testing regime as a participant or sponsor. Without Honda's cooperation or assistance in this regard, any testing of batteries that the ALABC or it's members have been or will be conducting in that Honda Civic cannot be said to be providing truly representative results of how those batteries will actually behave in a realistic micro-hybrid situation. Without matching the selected battery chemistry to the ECM and adding code in order to achieve optimal micro-hybrid behaviour, any results cannot be counted on as being 100 percent scientific, and will, therefore, be of limited value.

     

    Such raises the question of why is the ALABC apparently not testing the UltraBattery or any of its member's advanced carbonaceous additive/paste offerings with any of the auto companies?
    19 May 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    393,

     

    Even without an official sign on from Honda, I'm sure the anecdotal evidence from the PbC and the ALABC mile hybrid can't hurt Axion's profile. What is the downside of letting a superior battery strut its stuff (even if it is only for marketing and not technical papers).
    19 May 2014, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka, That is my thought. But if User39 is correct and they cannot make adjustments to the body controller/BMS and hardware to properly integrate the PbC then they should pass IMO.
    19 May 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    It's an *Ultrabattery* HEV, right? Wouldn't there be all kinds of non-battery configurations that have been fine-tuned to the Ultrabattery's unique characteristics?

     

    In which case this vehicle