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  • maplecorner
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning.
    29 May, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    fwiw

     

    A few months ago a very savvy and successful investor I know, upon my urging, took a deep dive into Axion and then came back to me with a conclusion that it too risky and not so much different than a bio-tech ( i.e. huge addressable market that's dominated by major players, tons of little guys with novel products trying to get their piece but few will succeed).

     

    Anyhow today he sent me this link, http://bit.ly/1k3NoEf

     

    I know this is nowhere near a perfect parallel but sadly some of it fits, as many have on this board made the comparison to Axion and a risky bio-tech stock =(
    29 May, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    Biotech investing is a full time job, as few come from a science background. So would AXPW if it were not for JP and these Concentrators.

     

    The comparison is thus improper as much of the risk is removed because of the knowledge we hold, and because of the stock price.

     

    In bio stocks you commonly get a 60% one day drop when a trial doesn't meet expectations (much less fail completely).

     

    AXPW is priced as if almost all programs are dead and yet we have a thorough understanding of the product and high confidence that it works.

     

    The only uncertainties we have are the customer's needs and timetables, and funding. These could rapidly be removed by July.
    29 May, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,

     

    I agree that Axion has a better (but nowhere near ideal) risk/reward profile than in the past. Yet, so far risk has won the day and the next placement is a threat to pps. Even successful bio-techs often go through many placements as well and the pps suffers until the final FDA approvals.

     

    And yes many biotechs fail in testing but there are others that pass through all the trials yet don't capture the market share they thought (that would be similar to most people's worries with Axion).

     

    I do believe Axion will find a place in the NS fleet (and in utilities and maybe auto), but whether thats a token few for PR purposes or dozens remains to be seen. Also I wouldn't discount a 60% drop potential in Axion if NS came back and said they are going in another direction.

     

    Anyhow as mentioned the above parallel is very far from perfect but not the worst comparison in the world when you talking about long cycles from conception to sales and big players who have no desire for the little guys to succeed.

     

    Heck, Axion is a decade in and that is not too different than some bio-tech stories I've followed. Also I'd say many on this board are as technical or more so than the average bio-tech investor.

     

    Thank you for responding. I posted to hear others thoughts on this subject as I felt my friend made a good point to me as much as I didn't want to agree on all accounts.
    29 May, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I give the fact that there haven't been any major technical failures great weight. We have several first tier testing and evaluation programs that have dragged on far longer than anybody would have dreamed possible. The fact that the first tier programs are continuing and several monster companies are still spending piles of their own money is very assuring because my understanding of every testing and validation program is to disqualify the unsuitable as quickly as possible.

     

    When you put a street fighter in the ring with the heavyweight champ you expect a first or second round KO. By the time the street fighter has survived a dozen rounds the music starts playing:

     

    http://bit.ly/1k5mnQQ
    29 May, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Respectfully most of us who have Axion in our portfolio feel this way http://bit.ly/1mwuxyV and I'm not sure that TG would be a good analog to Rocky's trainer "Mickey".
    29 May, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    The problem is we don't know if we've been knocked out by the Heavyweight champ. We see stars right in front of our face but we don't know if we've been knocked out or if we have liftoff and are so close to them.

     

    A statement such as "We continue to work with multiple automotive OEMs is ongoing and in various stages depending on the project" would do more for the stock than anything else. It would show we are still alive. Think of all the items that show up for one or two quarters in a Q filing such as the APU market that simply disappear. For an investor the logical assumption is that its dead.
    29 May, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Haven't we heard, "We continue to work with multiple automotive OEMs is ongoing and in various stages depending on the project" many times already? Impact on stock - consistently negative. It's deja vu all over again.

     

    I think the only thing worse than hearing that again would be a bankruptcy announcement.
    29 May, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Steady on Rick, you mentioned the B-word. Arn't you supposed to be on best behaviour?
    29 May, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about Bankruptcy is that it can't happen to companies that refuse to accumulate more debt than they can comfortably repay. Since Axion only has a couple million in debt including accounts payable and the subordinated debt, Bankruptcy isn't even a remote possibility much less a substantive risk.

     

    Every Bankruptcy we've seen in the battery space was traceable to insupportable levels of debt. Without debt, the worst that ever happens is equity dilution. With debt the worst case is an equity flush.
    29 May, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (348) | Send Message
     
    didn't XIDEQ go into protection not because of debt, but because of legal trouble? Same with Texaco if memory serves me correctly. (of course in Texaco's case shareholders walked away unscathed)

     

    Not to mention unpaid liabilities can quickly change to debt if it goes unpaid..
    29 May, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    iirc, in bankruptcy sometimes common stockholders get a few pennies on the dollar if there is anything left to divy up.

     

    Is that really that much different than someone who ends up owning 10 percent (or less) of their original ownership stake after successive equity placements.

     

    At what point does a BK and owning just the tiniest sliver of a company become near equivalent?
    29 May, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (348) | Send Message
     
    something like 90% of the time shareholders end up with zero.. on extremely rare occasions you can get rich buying into bankrupt stocks though (for example GGP would have been nice to buy in 1Q2009). http://yhoo.it/1hDI05f;range=5y
    29 May, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    "Haven't we heard, "We continue to work with multiple automotive OEMs is ongoing and in various stages depending on the project" many times already?"

     

    No meat on those bones. You can create whatever post hoc reality you want from that statement.
    29 May, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Whoa, guys! I was not trying to incite the wolves. I was writing about deja vu autos, not chapter 13. C'mon, a little humor, ok?
    29 May, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    futurecartsla,
    As I recall, Exide's legal problems didn't help, but the underlying problem was that they were barely making a profit on their business and had outstanding debt that was coming due.
    29 May, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    XIDEQ had short term bonds coming due, and a lead recycling plant shutdown was the final straw that killed cash flow.
    29 May, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    if anyone will buy the "equity flush"
    29 May, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    At 9/30/11 Exide had about $1.1 billion in long term debt and $360 million in equity. It was forced into bankruptcy when it couldn't refinance about $60 million of debentures due 2013. Any time debt to equity ratios climb above 2, equity holders face a tremendous risk that even a small hiccup will be enough to tip a company over the edge.
    30 May, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • ScotlandGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Thought I'd add a few thoughts to this thread from yesterday about comparing AXPW to biotech investing. As a research scientist in the area of physical biochemistry I find biotech investing to be fun, aside from whether I'm making money (or not), simply because it is intellectually interesting to me. So, it's an area of stocks I tend to focus on. In some ways, AXPW and biotech investments are superficially similar, but more so in the way that many nanocap stocks of all types are similar (volatility, high risk, etc.). However, there are some 'ironic' differences. In biotech world, nothing is proven about a drug that may have tens of millions already spent on it until it is administered to that highly nonlinear biological system comprised of human test subjects in a qualified Phase I (then II & III) clinical trial. [After all, we know that cancer has been cured in mice many times over in preclinical studies by different drugs, that then have failed in human clinical trials.] Ironically, AXPW has developed a proven finished PbC battery product that works in the real world! Moreover, it has clear advantages over other types of batteries; many other more knowledgeable posters have documented these advantages on this APC in previous discussions. In some ways, the PbC battery is like a fantastic drug in search of a suitable/correct biological target. For the PbC battery, this/these targets correspond to the killer apps for which it is far better suited than all other batteries (epower trucks, FR/power cubes, etc.). Therefore, by analogy, AXPW seems closer to the subset of biotech companies/stocks that are trying to repurpose existing or abandoned, but approved, drugs to new targets.

     

    One other way to compare AXPW to biotechs is through financing. Biotechs might typically operate off initial VC funding, but then quite often generate significant financing for the long expensive drug development process via signing on a partner at conclusion of Phase II or III trials, in many instances before the drug efficacy is rigorously proven with statistical criteria that will satisfy the FDA. It would have been nice to have a deep pockets partner provide financing to AXPW to finish development of the mature PbC that we talk about today. In some ways, the recent PIPE financing that caused such heavy dilution of the company's shares was like biotech VCs that grab all they can early on, but in this case, it was at a late stage in Axion's product development cycle.

     

    Well, sorry I got so carried away. That was a bit long winded. Let me say, regardless of the recent heavy dilution, I remain an optimistic long term holder of AXPW. It may take 2-3 years for the big enchilada to arrive from the kitchen, but I've got the time and can drink many cold beers, nibble on guacamole and chips, and of course read the APC while I wait.
    30 May, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    SG, thx for ur good post.

     

    BTW, I have a suggestion for a biotech stock you may find very interesting: OHRP (Ohr Pharma). Interesting, I think, from several different angles:

     

    1) timing. It's main drug, squalamine, is in Ph II for wet AMD, and interim results are expected in the 2nd half of June 2014. So no need to watch the paint dry.

     

    2) efficacy. Will squalamine drops work? Opinions are radically polarized. Crucial for me is that there is some mitigating information that lowers the risk, IMO, and some of the investing competition is very likely ignoring some of that info. Which helps me, the little guy, compete.

     

    3) risk/reward. Probably almost a total loss if the answer is "no way." Significant upside if interim results suggest "yes way", due to the blockbuster nature of the mkt and the other retinal diseases the drug may treat, too. Regeneron built it's $30 billion valuation on the back of their wet AMD drug shot into the eye.

     

    Since this is the AXPW blog, PM me if you want additional info about this stock. If you or someone you know is a retinal drug expert, or simply tied in w/ that community, I would love to hear their comments about squalamine. Please note that I am long.

     

    Lastly, thx guys for holding off stoning me, at least for a bit, for this mostly off-topic post!
    30 May, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    BUENOS DÍAS!!!
    29 May, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    Oh behave!
    29 May, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (750) | Send Message
     
    Is that a truck horn I hear?
    29 May, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    New gap appeared? Seems the gap opened yesterday between .1710 and .1730. Not a big deal but seems we have to revisit .1710 before we can move up. Anyone disagree?
    29 May, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Looks like gap filled already. See you at .20
    29 May, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The tractor is out of the shop and seems to be behaving as we hoped it would. We're about 1,000 pounds lighter with a 68 mph cruising speed and our sense from the fuel burn readings coming off the ECM is that we got a big chunk of the efficiency gains we were hoping for.

     

    The next steps will be adding weight to find out where performance begins to suffer followed by detailed fuel economy testing that focuses on the heavier weight ranges. It will probably be the end of next week before we're ready to discuss details and turn the tractor over to our first freight hauler, but I'm smiling this morning.
    29 May, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    I live a couple hours north of Cincy. I do not know the route the tractor takes, but every time I am on I-75 I am looking for the tractor hoping to catch a glimpse of it.
    29 May, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The routes vary depending on whether we're trying to gather information on city, suburban or highway performance. They're typically 45 to 60 mile circuits that begin and end at our shop in Florence, so you're not likely to see us in the wild until we complete our preliminary testing and turn the tractor over to our first freight hauler.
    29 May, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    "probably be the end of next week...."

     

    That's also the "date" we have for the NS999. The race is still on.

     

    Just a reminder: APC 326 poll results for "Who is going to take the first ride, an NSC engineer in the NS999 or a 3rd party trucker in an ePower rig?" were 34 for the trucker versus 14 for the engineer.

     

    It's coming down to the wire!
    29 May, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Just the same, CoryM, keep your camera-phone handy. While John could take a picture of the ePower truck and post it anytime he wants, it would be pretty special to get a candid photo of the the truck in it's native environment.

     

    D
    29 May, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    EM, "That's also the "date" we have for the NS999. The race is still on."
    Crazy to sell with this going down in a 30 day period, IMHO.
    29 May, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    Do you have a smiling picture? Love to see it. glad you are encouraged, so am I just keep the good news coming.
    29 May, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    send us a video if you spot it!
    29 May, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Any sneak peek on the fuel savings unladen JP?
    29 May, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Fuel economy on a bobtail tractor is pretty useless data. We expect the tractor to get about 10 mpg because the engine burns 6.8 gallons of fuel per hour at 240 hp and our cruising speed is 68 mph.

     

    The big question is how much weight we can load into a trailer before the performance starts to suffer because we're over-stressing the system. We get the answer to that question by adding concrete barriers to the trailer in 4,000 pound increments and going for a ride.

     

    While I usually love gossip, we plan to keep the details quiet until we can offer reasonably complete answers that are fairly comparable to the level of detail in this release from Cummins and Peterbilt:

     

    http://bit.ly/1muUkaG
    29 May, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    John - your link appears to be dead. Could you re-post?
    29 May, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP, edge of the seat stuff. Can you paste that link again please. The one up doesn't seem to work.
    29 May, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    It appears the SA URL-shortening system dropped that last slash character from the link.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oNFYVi (shortened with bitly)

     

    CUMMINS-PETERBILT SUPERTRUCK ACHIEVES 10.7 MPG IN LATEST TEST
    Denton, Texas (February 18, 2014)

     

    >>
    The Class 8 Peterbilt Model 579, powered by a Cummins ISX15 engine, achieved 10.7 mpg during testing last month between Denton, Texas, and Vernon, Texas. The 312-mile route was the same one used two years ago, when the first version of the Cummins-Peterbilt SuperTruck averaged just under 10 mpg. The testing in both instances was conducted on a round-trip basis, to negate any wind advantage that might have been gained by traveling one way, and each tractor-trailer had a combined gross weight of 65,000 lb running at 64 mph. A longer, 500-mile route between Denton and Memphis, Texas, was also used to demonstrate the vehicle's fuel-efficiency improvement over a 24-hour test cycle.

     

    The increase in fuel economy for the Cummins-Peterbilt SuperTruck would save about $27,000 annually per truck based on today's diesel fuel prices for a long-haul truck traveling 120,000 miles (193,121 km) per year. It would also translate into a more than 43 percent reduction in annual GHG emissions per truck. The potential savings in fuel and GHGs are enormous, given that there are about 2 million registered tractor-trailers on U.S. roads today, according to the American Trucking Associations.
    <<
    29 May, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I believe you were previously testing at 64 mph and now it appears that you have increased that to 68 mph? Is this correct?
    29 May, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    With the old gear ratios 64 mph was pretty much the top end. With the new ones we can get up to 80 mph if we push things, but 68 mph is the sweet spot for both the generator and the drive motor. That sweet spot also meshes well with major fleet operating procedures that govern tractors to 63 mph or 68 mph for insurance purposes.
    29 May, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    "We expect the tractor to get about 10 mpg because the engine burns 6.8 gallons of fuel per hour at 240 hp and our cruising speed is 68 mph."

     

    JP, sorry to trouble you with simplistic questions. Is it the case that the unladen tractor gets similar mileage to a loaded tractor up to a certain point? It seems counter-intuitive. I do remember a comment from you previously that C-P system was tested in "ideal" circumstances. eg flat terrain, aerodynamic etc. I assume you will be going for a more "realistic" number, especially as you will be handing over to 3rd parties who presumably don't choose their customers based on terrain type.
    29 May, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The Cummins 6.7L engine burns 6.8 gph when it's running steadily at 240 hp and powering a generator. If the tractor doesn't need that much power, the fuel burn per hour will be lower. What we expect is a relatively benign fuel economy decline as we add weight within normal system limits. Once we exceed normal system limits, we expect fuel economy to decline more sharply. Over the next week the big issue will be finding the inflection point between comfortable laden weights and laden weights that stress the system too harshly.
    29 May, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4453) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Does ePower use the battery to do any of the standing-start or is that all genset? Just curious.
    29 May, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    It all depends on the drive motor's current draw. As load on the drive motor increases, the line amperage climbs and the line voltage drops. As soon as the line voltage falls below the battery pack voltage, the batteries step in to fill the gap automatically without any special signals or controls. Likewise, whenever the line voltage is higher than the battery pack voltage, they absorb the excess and re-charge. It's very slick and mud simple.
    29 May, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4453) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... You would think but I've seen different. As an interested sidewalk engineering supervisor, I've got one more question that I'm sure Jay has thought of and tried but I feel compelled to ask anyway.

     

    Have they used the battery pack for initial brake-rotor powering-up of the traction motor and allow the diesel to get into its powerband with little to no load? Again just curious.

     

    I'd love to see one of these units up close ... like at one of my local Texas truckstops, but sadly that is a good deal of time away. Besides, at 68 mph your "Nessie" might get run over by the oilfield trucks that seem to think in-town speeds of 70 to 80 is slow.
    29 May, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Referring to the Peterbilt/Cummins Supertruck, they spent $38.8M in private funds plus 'matching grants' from the DOE.

     

    Do we assume the 'matching' grants were equal to the private funds so the total spent on this project is $77.6M?

     

    So $7.25M/mpg.

     

    I think it would be interesting to compare how much ePower has spent per mpg. Although I suppose Peterbilt, Cummins and the DOE probably wouldn't appreciate their noses being rubbed in such a comparison.

     

    D
    29 May, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    I would also point out the clever promotional images on the side of the truck:

     

    Big American flag: check

     

    Big Map of the USA: check

     

    Bold display of the mpg: check

     

    Would love to see similar use of heartland American imagery and the mpg on the side of an ePower demonstrator. Maybe include the price too.

     

    D
    29 May, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    DRich, the diesel runs at a steady state 1,800 rpm so it's already in its powerband and the generator is just a dumb machine that responds to current demand from he drive motor.
    29 May, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    JP et.al - question: how much/many of the Cummins/Peterbilt improvement in their moving from 6 to 10 mpg doing whatever they did, can still be added to the 10 mpg level which ePowerengines plans to achieve?

     

    Can we get towards 14 mpg using Cummins-Peterbilt advances??

     

    Or better yet (maybe), can Cummins-Peterbilt gather together the epowerengines "stuff" for a fee/royalty etc., and start producing the 14 mpg products as brand new from the truck factory?
    29 May, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    DRich - As I understand ePower's serial drive, that happens automatically. Remember the diesel has no physical connection to the drive train, just an electric wire.

     

    The accelerator pedal is not connected to the engine; it only adjusts the electricity going to the electric motor. Stomping on the accelerator powers the motor, which drops the voltage, so the batteries discharge to spin the motors. Milliseconds later, the generator is stressed because of the electric draw, and more fuel is released to the engine keep it running at constant rpm. No need to wait to get into its powerband; it's already there.

     

    In this version, the engine is always running at optimum rpm. [I assume future versions may have start/stop and/or reduced operating speed protocols when descending hills, etc. One step at a time.]
    29 May, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    NJB> Many of the enhancements in the Cummins - Peterbilt Supertruck would remain intact if they used our drivetrain instead of their straight mechanical system. Incorporating all those features, however is an OEM function rather than a repower function. After all, there's only so much you can do with an existing truck. Our goal is to do the best we can with the material at our disposal and welcome potential partners who want to contribute to the cause.

     

    Rick> Our instantaneous ECM fuel economy numbers climb into the mid-20 mpg range on downgrades so it's unclear how much more we could pick up with if we added engine-off gliding, but there's no question there are several paths to improve economy from our current baseline - whatever that number turns out to be. There are also significant gains to be derived from better aerodynamics and even re-shaping the front end to minimize the empty space under the hood while creating a more rounded profile, but this is a long journey and for now we're primarily focused on getting the first steps as right as we can.
    29 May, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    John - The silence is deafening, which is ok!

     

    "Or better yet (maybe), can Cummins-Peterbilt gather together the epowerengines "stuff" for a fee/royalty etc., and start producing the 14 mpg products as brand new from the truck factory?"
    29 May, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    John - in rereading your above response, THEY CAN indeed benefit by incorporating ePower stuff to their supertruck performance; but, WILL THEY? is probably covered under NDA or the like, and such discussion is probably muzzled just as with TG's issues.
    29 May, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    We can buy a new "glider" from Peterbilt and install an ePower drivetrain instead of a conventional engine and transmission. It would be easier than tearing down an old tractor for a retrofit, but a good deal more expensive. Since our bank account has limited depth, we've been taking the cheaper route. We think that some customers will want to rebuild their older tractors while others will want to spring for the cost of a new glider. We also think that dealers may be willing to become kit purchasers so that they can offer our drivetrain as an option.

     

    Since I'm a big believer in keeping things simple, our goal for the next ten days or so will be characterizing the performance of our drivetrain so that we'll know for sure whether we have a drivetrain that can service a meaningful portion of our target market.

     

    Over the long haul I'd have no objection if one of the big boys wanted to license our drivetrain for the OEM market. After all, the engineering and design talent an OEM could bring to the table would be a wonderful resource.
    29 May, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    JP: "... engineering and design talent an OEM could bring to the table would be a wonderful resource".

     

    OTOH, that talent may have the same biases that caused others to tell Jay that a vector drive couldn't be used the way he's using it.

     

    So the "fine tuning" might *really* benefit, but I doubt any "Aha!" moments would come from their presence.

     

    I worked with a bunch of engineers for a long time. The 80/20 rule will generally apply I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 May, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    "We can buy a new "glider" from Peterbilt and install an ePower drivetrain instead of a conventional engine and transmission."

     

    Maybe once the mpg numbers and durability bear out, you will get a benefactor to support a new glider. Then you could have a road show with that truck while the numbers prove themselves out in the older versions.
    29 May, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Glad you are back Rick. Sure most others are too.
    29 May, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    HTL> We wouldn't be looking for Eureka! moments, but once a wheel has been invented, there's nobody better than OEM engineering teams to make it rounder and tough as a boar's nose, which is exactly what we want. Good fuel economy is wonderful, but not if getting it costs durability and reliability.
    29 May, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    John, do you directly set the voltage below which the batteries contribute? Or is the set limit a function of the batteries SOC?
    29 May, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    We just let the batteries do what they do naturally. In an ideal world the pack voltage will stabilize in the 645-volt range.
    29 May, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    What's the swing on that voltage over the course of your current trip circuits?
    29 May, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Because of the way our system is designed and operates, we don't separately monitor the generator and the batteries. Our only concern is the combined power output.
    29 May, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    05/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 320588, AvTrSz: 7819
    Min. Pr: 0.1710, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1755
    # Buys, Shares: 28 219103, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1762
    # Sells, Shares: 13 101485, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1740
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.16:1 (68.34% "buys"), DlyShts 83803 (26.14%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 82.58%

     

    The big news, for me, today is the first test expected of the resistance at $0.18 occurred today and it held. This occurred even with “strength” on increased volume and a still-robust buy percentage of 68.3%. Note that the three $0.18 “buys”, totaling 4,403 shares, were right at the open hitting the ask. Trading immediately dropped right into the $0.175x area even though the half-dozen following trades were “buys”.

     

    VWAP improvement continues for the third consecutive day. Finally, volume managed an improvement of ~38%, suggesting a little strength may be appearing in the move higher. We don't yet have a trend with consistent volume and behavior, but I can at last see the possibility that we might be able to break out. But we've had this $0.18 approached before, broken intra-day and held, and then “leg down” to $0.155 and the 50-day SMA.

     

    In my non-traditional TA area, buy percentage continue moving in a “robust” fashion: 5/19 forward: ...

     

    The rest of the usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    29 May, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    The CEO of Kips Bay Medical (KIPS) (my only other holding) is starting a blog. Wish TG had a blog...
    http://bit.ly/1mvuzaj
    29 May, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    Well good grief! I was thinking yesterday's volume improvement might bring good things regardless of rejection at $0.18.

     

    And here we sit at 12:45 having traded $6,049.5716, -34.5K shares thus far.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    29 May, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I benefit from your TA and add to it what I can, the larger picture of human behavior based on news or lack thereof.

     

    I had hoped the price would continue an accelerating rise through the week as next week's potential news approached. However, the low volume with a strengthening of the price tells me that not many people are willing to sell at these prices with possible good news on the horizon.

     

    This price action encourages me to believe if we get a glimpse of the roll out of the NS 999 and continued progress with ePower that we will see a dramatic price increase.

     

    If only a handful of lurkers would go ahead and buy about 200,000 shares each...
    29 May, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    jveal, my experiences with high risk/reward nano caps meshes well with your comments. A whole lotta such stocks I've owned will just kinda drift around on low volume for a large percentage of the time, then, boom, a big move happens suddenly. Sometimes up, sometimes down, but usually quickly.

     

    We went thru that recently with AXPW, when it jumped from 10 cents to 20. I sense we are on the edge of that kinda movement again, but just so very hard to time these things. I think a big part of the fuel will be the lurker and first-time looker money---the lurker comment by john lowe had 80 likes last time I checked. Concentrator followers is up to 375. AltoonaWorks has over 10,000 likes, as someone pointed out. Sector's attracted some more attention the last few months. It's easy to lose site, while down in the due dilly trenches, that there is a much, much bigger investment world out there than our little posting group of a couple dozen. Took a lot more than 20-30 people, IMO, to buy the 100+ million Piper shares, for example. The motherlode of money has been silent.

     

    We'll see.
    29 May, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    jveal,

     

    I agree the ePower and 999 will/could be great news if/when they get out of the shops and on the road/rails. Hopefully this will happen early June with a few press releases regarding bragging rights. But I am also more anxious to hear about the first BYSolar project being commissioned in early June as per TG this will pave the way for additional Cube sales. If I am interpreting TG's hints correctly there are additional larger projects in the wings awaiting in field proof of concept! I believe that additional cube sales will be very powerful in attracting the lurkers to join in!
    29 May, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • abcd9876
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357 - I agree 100% - I was thinking about exactly same items while trying not to get too depressed with today's trading volume. One to add - new CFO shall be arriving in days. If we get someone with experience in capital raising and up-listing process, that shall help too.
    29 May, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    abcd,

     

    I am looking at the recent trading volume as a good thing as it supports the belief that the big sellers are exhausted.

     

    The CFO announcement will be a real good thing also and I am defintiely hoping that TG will come through with his latest prediction of having this accomplished by the end of May. This event is one of the few predictions that he should have control of and not at the expense of outside influences such as customers schedules! The end of May is approaching fast though!
    29 May, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    JVeal: "However, the low volume with a strengthening of the price tells me that not many people are willing to sell at these prices with possible good news on the horizon".

     

    What's crossed my mind is that most folks that would buy want to buy *ahead* of the news, as *might* have been suggested by the very high buy % over the last few days.

     

    The fact that when we did get some volume we hit $0.18 and fell back tells me I was wrong thinking they want to buy ahead of the news.

     

    That drives us into the scenario of "will the "news surge" be large enough to drive new buyers to prices that encourage longs to avoid dumping immediately"?

     

    I don't know. But we know at least several folks, and maybe many more, are now just trading in the stock.

     

    "Lurkers" know this too and are unlikely to behave irrationally. Those looking to establish a long-term position can afford to wait and acquire after the PR pop subsides, and they won't be as price-sensitive as the traders, who *should* be following rules on when to exit.

     

    The second thing is many will still recognize these are not near-term "paths to sales", so why not wait until the RS and all the surrounding machinations are completed and trading on an exchange increases liquidity and chance for better pricing with a *longer* wait until next financing round.

     

    That leaves me thinking the near-term results of the news may be muted. This may be a manifestation of "it's already priced in" too.

     

    Or, "buy the rumor and sell the news".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 May, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    HTL: The Yahoo! chart cracks me up. See that little blue 1500 share dot all alone out there in the vast whiteness in the middle of this afternoon?

     

    That's me just messing around. ;-)
    29 May, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    "Idle minds ..." Maya! :-))

     

    The paint wasn't dry from the 11:17 trade yet.

     

    HardToLove
    29 May, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Makes you a top ten AXPW trader for the day. You're making the market! :-p
    29 May, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Maya, so much for 15 mins of fame. You have grabbed several hours of it. Single-handedly holding the p.m. volume in place.
    29 May, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    I don't know Dance. The first thing that came to my mind was the movie Jeremiah Johnson, when Johnson found that man buried in desert sand up to his neck; that's me. ;-)

     

    ####

     

    Ha! Just checked, my stubbornness made the MM give in and come to me late in the day. We have another trade today! Funny that he didn't let me nab that last 500 shares of the 22,000 I tried to buy today.

     

    Funny part, I wasn't paying very much attention today. But when I noticed the ridiculously low volume this morning, to me, that was a buy tell, and I threw in an order.
    29 May, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    Shaved your head so Wall Street doesn't scalp ya?

     

    http://bit.ly/1k590QB
    29 May, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    LMAO, iindy! You caught me!

     

    Don't ever recall myself accounting for an entire afternoon's worth of trading AXPW.

     

    I'd genuflect, but I'm not sure where to find a backhoe out here.
    29 May, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    Scientists Pinpoint the Creeping Nanocrystals Behind Lithium-Ion Battery Degradation

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1mvD98T
    29 May, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    iindelco -->> This article serves to point out, once again, how little we know about the energy conversion process. With all the interest and impetus in furthering various battery and capacitive developments, we are starting out from the lower left corner of a very steep learning curve.
    29 May, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The article basically describes a lithium-ion analog to hard sulfate in lead-acid batteries. I wish them the best of luck in finding ways to avoid that problem.
    30 May, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    John, just curious, did you ever spend any time in science or consider it as a vocation?
    30 May, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    My first two years of college were focused on hard science and I was leaning toward biochemistry. The responsibilities of fatherhood and the shorter path to a solid professional status as an accountant ended up taking precedence. Law school was an afterthought that I followed up on to please my Dad.
    30 May, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    UniEnergy Technologies Announces Commercial Availability of Uni.System'' Grid-Scale Energy Storage System

     

    http://bit.ly/1k4M5Vu
    29 May, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    Back to the PowerCube and SolarPV:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 May, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    NJB - Very interesting article. Hopefully those head winds begin to gain strength sooner than later.
    29 May, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    Fiat, BMW, others may miss Europe's 2021 CO2 target, study says

     

    http://bit.ly/1mw4tni
    29 May, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    And, don't forget about the rest of the world and NUCLEAR:

     

    "Globally there are about 66 reactors under construction with 160 planned and 319 proposed. Japan is expected to bring over 30 reactors back online over the next three years. Considering that there are only about 434 reactors operating today, these numbers collectively are very material and will shift the demand profile of uranium."

     

    Plus, Germany was(?) going to shut down it's 20-some nuclear-electrical production sources within 10 years, and are now furiously building new coal plants to keep people warm. A double mistake?

     

    http://bit.ly/1k51HIL
    29 May, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    No low-carbon benefits without energy storage

     

    http://bit.ly/1k54yBi
    29 May, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    Well, 10 trades for 56,002 shares with $9,801.3216 value allows me to take a good part of the night off.

     

    I'll do the numbers and charts but no thinking at all.

     

    YIPPEE!

     

    HardToLove
    29 May, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Congratulations on getting a night off! You deserve it!

     

    Got any big plans??

     

    ;-))
    29 May, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: Get comfy with my feet up sooner!

     

    HardToLove
    29 May, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Not that it matters much, but bigcharts.com shows a trade going off in the last 1/2 hour of 40k shares. But Total shares of 56K like you say. Is the last trade a bit of a typo?
    29 May, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    James: No 40K trade. It was 20K at 15:43 for $0.1745. Confirmed with Power ETrade Pro 1-minute chart, Time & Sales, Market Depth (Level II), and ADVFN Trades panel.

     

    Looking at my spreadsheet, I even tried to see if I could somehow aggregate some trades up to 40K (e.g. what might be seen at 3, 5, 10, ... minute intervals).

     

    No luck.

     

    Knowing now what I know about financial industry software, I suspect a ... "glitch" in either the chart process or the data feed it uses.

     

    I can't say how many times data feeds ended up being the cause in issues I saw and thought were program errors in my platform.

     

    Uh, but ditto for how many I thought were data feed issues and turned out to be program problems on the platform.

     

    I've decided that the industry never heard of QC, regression testing, "code reviews", ... Maybe they follow the "open source" design, development and implementation model: throw it out there and let the suckxxxx end users report any problems.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 May, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    HTL: That 20K trade was me. The 1500 trade before that was me, too. And the double count did not happen in either case with both afternoon trades (which were one GTC order for 22,000 shares that only filled 21,500).

     

    So we now have forensic and very compelling evidence that the double count does not happen all the time, as I have long suspected.

     

    From here on, anyone who suggests that the total day's volume is divided by 2, is mistaken.
    29 May, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I know the double count exists Maya, but I also know that I can't offer the kind of documentary proof it would take to convince you, so let's just agree to disagree.
    29 May, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Maya, fwiw, I have seen my own trades double count. I think all we can say with certainty is the volume might be overstated at times. I think especially so on large volume days. On days like today; likely not as much or at all.
    29 May, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Today's FINRA short sale total was 21,300 shares. It is entirely possible that a MM knew he could buy covering shares tomorrow at a price that would net him a profit.

     

    The double count rarely results in a precise matching of a specific sell and a specific buy, but over the course of a typical week or month the number of shares leaving the hands of old stockholders will equal one-half of the total volume and those same shares entering the hands of new buyers will represent the other half.

     

    This is not a theory. It's a fact I've proven time and time again in deep analytical work I've done for clients who were doing battle with short sellers and market forces they didn't understand. Unfortunately the documentation in my client files is privileged and I'm unwilling to risk my license to prove a point.
    29 May, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    JP: So what you are saying is that my trade today will end up being traded tomorrow, or another day? As in the MM bought my shares and has them stowed away for another day?

     

    I always thought that MMs always liked to close the books without any shares in the till each day...at least as much as possible.
    29 May, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    MMs like to close the books at zero long or short, but they'll always make an exception if they know where the covering shares are coming from. That's what the MM exception to the short sale rules is all about.

     

    The double count is one of those things that can only be proven with documentation that's only available to companies and most companies don't know how to use effectively. Those that learn how to collect, collate and interpret the data are way ahead of the game.
    29 May, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    I have not seen them before, but my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is the documentation is the OBO/NOBO lists.

     

    That is the best method to tell if a naked short attack is occurring ... And I am sure you can determine many other things from those lists.
    29 May, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    JP: Yeah, but...

     

    I just received a PM from an Axionista who wants to remain anonymous, who said she/he was the person who sold the 20,000 shares to me.

     

    On the board today, we were both involved with a late 20,000 share trade with the time stamp of 15:43.

     

    How can this be double counted if it doesn't show 40,000 shares traded? Especially when today's volume tally was 56,002.

     

    For me, this does not compute to a double trade, especially because now I know exactly who traded the shares to me.

     

    I don't want to get ticky tacky, but even you thought a long time ago when we were talking on the cell, when someone bought 600K in a single trade, that you agreed with me and didn't think it was being double counted.

     

    Leaves me a little confused. And I guess we'll have to, like you said, agree to disagree. I just can't ignore today's data, as during my trading days, I've more times than I can count, seen the exact number of shares I've traded in OTC stocks, go through with the exact number of shares I was either selling, or buying.

     

    No double count.

     

    BTW: I guess this does indeed somewhat demonstrate that Axionistas are now trading amongst themselves.
    29 May, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Today's daily short interest was around 38% on volume of 56,000 shares with 20,000 being bought by Maya!

     

    I haven't a clue if this means anything!! ;-))
    29 May, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357: Actually, and for the record, I bought 21,500 shares today.
    29 May, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I'd suggest you conduct your own trade tests since commissions are pretty cheap. Heck use 2 account and trade with yourself for a few days. =)

     

    I've done so in the past and found scenarios where there were double counts and other times there were matched trades and single print.

     

    For the most part things were double counted in my tests (which makes Axion's volume less impressive). Also consider without double count the PIPERs would have been washed out many months back and Axion would have done over 200M shares traded in the past 52 weeks. To me that doesn't seem possible considering the pps.
    30 May, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I've never found a way to tie specific buy and sell transactions because they get all mixed up together in the market making process. What I've done several times is order a series of NOBO lists for clients dated about a week apart. When you do a side by side comparison, you can quickly identify all non objecting holders who increased or decreased their positions during the period between the two lists. When you add up all the known sells and all the known buys, and compare those totals with reported trading volumes you get a very clear picture of where the stock is coming from and going to. You also get a very clear picture of imbalances caused by short sellers and the churn from day traders. It's fascinating stuff but a monumental pain to do, so most companies don't bother unless they have a big problem and need to solve the puzzle.
    30 May, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • abcd9876
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    My 2 cents - On matched customer trades - a client on both sides of same trade, double-counting is not an issue. But majority of OTC trades would involve a MM in the middle, which would lead to double-counting.
    30 May, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    There are matched in-house trades and there are also negotiated trades on the Instinet that aren't double counted, but for penny stocks like Axion its safest to assume a true double count when you're trying to track the flows of shares from selling stockholders into the market. It's not a perfect tool, but it is a useful tool.
    30 May, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    abcd, that is my experience, too, as well as with cross-trades using different brokers, if the word from the MMs was believed.

     

    BTW, kinda lost track in this is: is this an important issue? If yes, then consult an expert (or a 2nd one if you think JP is one) like for any other important business question.

     

    I would rather look at the trading for clues as to what's going on, and I have seen fairly consistent signs recently that the big uglies are no longer a material problem. I'm guessing that conclusion is at the heart of the 'double-count or not?' question.
    30 May, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    And short was 21.3K.

     

    Now, if you ask he/she if their broker is different from yours, I suspect "yes" and the sell order is *not* in control of the MM at the time the sell order is placed or it wouldn't have to be flagged short sell.

     

    Grinding my axe ...

     

    HardToLove
    30 May, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    FWIW yesterday's volume was the lowest we've seen since March of 2013. That's a very clear sign that the PIPErs have left the building and the only potential sellers are old guard and Axionistas. I think the next few weeks will prove to everybody that the days of unlimited supply at bargain prices are over.
    30 May, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    If we were to apply the 50/50 buy/sell theory would that mean that there were 28,000 shares purchased and 28,000 shares sold and you accounted for 21,500 of those purchased shares?? Something seems amiss to me!
    30 May, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday was an extraordinarily low volume and probably a 3 or 4 sigma event when you consider that the 100-day moving average volume was about 1.2 million shares at the end of last week. This is one of the clear signs I've been looking for where the buyers are being very careful and there are no eager sellers pushing the price down to take out the available bids. The behavior pattern only seems amiss because it's so very different from what we've grown accustomed to seeing. Personally I'd like to see a few more days of ultra-low volume but there's no way to predict the next stages and that's what will make it a great learning experience for those who pay close attention.
    30 May, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Well, this morning someone has been selling a bunch thru ETRF (to me that MM means retail). So I bought some at 17 cents.
    30 May, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Billion003
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    (This response to Maya's post ended up a collection of thoughts that I hope make sense. I'm suffering from a cold and have time to blab, I hope, coherently.)
    I suppose you're playing the potential pop of the stock that may come within a few weeks before the reverse split takes place.
    If my assumptions are correct the reverse split is going to drastically reduce the percentage ownership of present Axion shareholders of Axion - this also in conjunction to the large stock placement to subsequently occur. Afterwhich, the ability to pop, or the "multi-bagger" factor will be greatly reduced. Is this not the case?
    In regard to the present stock price, it looks like the hard core Axionistas are holding on but new buyers are holding off waiting to see how things shake out.
    We might all be surprised at how hard this newest dilution hits us. Depending on the placement, in the back of my mind the thought keeps occurring that we may be being set-up for a full or partial buyout. ("Hello, GE"...or the like.)
    Certain business scenarios, I think previously discussed here, make sense.
    In regard to Axion, I find the lack of information, or openness, on the company's part very telling - at the very least it fuels the imagination as to what Axion insiders are hearing from customers and what these customers might require in regard to developing their technologies to work with the PbC and the time it may take. Its easy enough to see a scenario where Axion goes, in short order, from selling essentially nothing to being immediately seriously backordered.
    When it occurr the PIPEers might have been Axions only efficient choice to raise revenue ( I think JP has said as much), the present likely impending reverse split and large stock issuance is necessary, but the drastically different ratios of the reverse splitting of the outstanding shares as opposed to in-house shares is optically horrible. Hence, the flat stock price just ahead of potentially very public good news by Axion and ePower.
    I for one would have bought a lot more stock had the company evolution been different. I am looking for reasons regular Axion stockholders will benefit as time goes on. If I do I am prepared.
    30 May, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    John a question, watching the e-power demo video, I read a caption highlighting the benefits of no transmission needed. In your list of components and the cost thereof you list in every configuration a 5 speed transmission from Allison. Is a transmission required in all cases or only in the 8B class?
    30 May, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Well, No. 2, lol. That's what it looks like when 300k+ shares get dumped in the first hour and a half, when the average volume is lower like it has been very recently.

     

    Temp fire sale, seems to me, but we'll have to see...
    30 May, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    ouch.
    30 May, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Bill> it looks like you were watching the Gen1 video. The Gen2 and Gen3 tractors both use a 5 speed automatic transmission and we plan to upgrade to a 10 speed automatic from Eaton as soon as we can work our way through the integration issues. Please ignore the early no transmission needed language.
    30 May, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (856) | Send Message
     
    Billion003 --- "If my assumptions are correct the reverse split is going to drastically reduce the percentage ownership of present Axion shareholders of Axion"
    --
    To clarify, a reverse split doesn't change the percentage of ownership one iota. It puzzles me how this notion ever got traction, and that so many on this board seem to believe it to be the case.
    30 May, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, and for the vast majority of investors, ownership %age is irrelevant, anyway. What is the economic rationale behind materially caring about whether one owns, say, .1% or .06%?

     

    What matters is price per share multiplied by the number of shares one owns, and how that changes over time. To the extent that an issuance changes the price per share, that matters. Not the ownership %age.
    30 May, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Billion003
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    The percentage ownership does change in regard to total shares when including issuable authorized shares, the number for which will not be reduced to the degree outstanding share numbers will in the reverse split.
    My understanding is that outstanding shares will be drastically reduced while authorized shares will be reverse split by only a fraction of the outstanding share ratio. The reverse split ratios are different. So, the outstanding shares to authorized share ratio, or percentage ownership in this regard is greatly changed. Then, immediately or at some point soon, a good portion of the now much larger percentage authorized shares will be sold off - converted newly issued outstanding shares. When this occurs the outstanding share dilution - officially.
    I would much prefer all shares - outstanding and authorized - to be reverse split at the same ratio. Then issue as needed more authorized via a future shareholder vote.
    A month or so ago someone here told me there is only one class of shares. Officially that may be the case. But the two groups - authorized and outstanding - are being treated differently in this potential reverse split.

     

    Look at the present authorized share numbers compared to present outstanding share numbers. Then take the number of outstanding shares and divide it by numbers, from 20 to 50. Take the authorized shares number and divide it by their reduction rate. How do the pre and post reverse split percentages compare? The again taking into account the new issuance. (And I do realize all authorized shares will not be issued at this point - as far as I know.)

     

    I realize the need to raise operating revenue and I'm not against it. I think a nasdaq listing would help greatly. The entire process may be entirely necessary for broader market acceptance to occur. But shareholders should know where they stand.
    Maybe I'm missing something. I know I am greatly outclassed by those here with more experience in regard to these matters and accordingly I welcome being corrected if my assumptions are not correct. I even welcome talking privately by phone.
    I'm prepared to buy in more heavily if things look promising. I haven't sold. I'm holding. Axion is the most interesting stock/technology I've seen in 5 years. But I think the questions I am voicing are the ones that are accounting for the stock and its volume doing what it has been for the past couple of weeks.
    But, hey, I've been dead wrong before. Convince me otherwise.
    30 May, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Billion & Wayne - True, the reverse split by itself, ceteris paribus, does not change relative stock ownership percentages, except for a trivial amount in rounding up lots of less than 100 shares.

     

    Normally, a reverse split would also reduce the amount of unissued authorized shares, too. Axion's proposal does NOT do this. Instead of reducing the shares proportionally, the proposal reduces the post-reverse split shares to 100m, from 350m presently. If the RS is executed at 20:1 (the lower limit), this is effectively increasing the pre-split shares from 350m to 2,000m. If the the RS is executed at 50:1 (the upper limit), the pre-split shares rise to 5,000m (5 billion).

     

    Again, by itself, this does not change relative stock holding percentages. The fear among many (not all) stockholders is that current management may sell billions of pre-RS-shares without any further stockholder approval. Since current shareholders own about 225m pre-RS-shares, selling several pre-RS-billion shares would very significantly change shareholders relative holdings. Of course, management may not decide to sell billions of shares, and execute a successful financing with a very limited amount of shares.

     

    If a shareholder does not trust present management, this proposal is very bad. If a shareholder does trust current management, the effective increase of authorized shares does not matter. Clearly there are diverse opinions on APC regarding present management.

     

    Billion, please read the official documents released by the company. I think they are very clear. In addition to the straightforward arithmetic above, there are quite a few other risks and issues presented.
    30 May, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    RB,

     

    I'd think its likely there wasn't double count yesterday but over the long term I'd say otcbb volume is overstated by almost a factor of 2x.
    30 May, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Many of the tools I rely on are nowhere near granular enough for useful day-to-day analysis, but they're quite reliable for analyzing developments over time. Since markets take a long time to absorb big uglies and PIPErs, the lack of granularity doesn't bother me in the slightest.
    30 May, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, I hear you. I think it's more the spectre of the near-term result of the combining of *two* distinct operations, the split and then the raise. Take a reverse split say at 30 to one, which has the immediate effect of raising share price to ~$5 and reducing share count to around 7 million. So still a market cap around 35 million. But then, right on the heels of that, or concomitant with it, is a new cap raise of say 5 million shares at around 4 dollars...20% discount to market... which obviously brings in 20 or so million new dollars, but also increases share count to around 12 million (post-split) or 360 million (pre-split). Which to some people sounds like a pretty big whack. Even though at that point market cap would be around $50 million (if price were to decay to near that of the offering) and the company would have $20 million of fresh cash to work with, enough to keep things moving for the next two years. On the whole, a positive result (apart even from any uplisting). But for many though, they would still feel like they now had a much smaller slice of pie...
    30 May, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (750) | Send Message
     
    Another question is how much would it take to buy a controlling interest in the company post split? Are there companies, like say Johnson Controls, that would find that price acceptable if by doing so they lock up the market?
    30 May, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1497) | Send Message
     
    "If a shareholder does trust current management, the effective increase of authorized shares does not matter."

     

    It still matters. Executives and directors can leave or die or the board can be expanded in size to include new members you do not trust.

     

    "Authorized" is forever. A new vote can increase it but decreasing it is unheard of, therefore if a shareholder thinks the askance for authorized shares is too high they should vote against it. There won't ever be another chance.
    30 May, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Typically 20% of a public company is enough to effectively control it. Axion presently has no known shareholders who hold 5% or more of the company. Shareholders are required to publicly disclose when their holdings exceed 5%. A 20% holder would be on the board, and probably have multiple directors, too. From that, the BoD could approve various acquisition offers.

     

    My understanding is that it is pretty simple for an unscrupulous offshore entity to get around the 5% disclosure rule, and accumulate significantly more than 5% undetected. US law says that related entities must be counted together as one, however, opaque ownership disclosure rules in many offshore tax havens make this very difficult to monitor.

     

    A public US company like Johnson Controls would not risk this type of shenanigans. An Asia-based private equity fund probably wouldn't even blink. Later they can then sell it to somebody like Johnson Controls.

     

    [I am using Johnson Controls only because greentongue did. I have no idea if they would be interested or a good match.]

     

    There are many legal paths for taking over a company, too.

     

    With today's market cap of $36m, 20% is $7.2m. The reverse split does not technically change the market capitalization, so this is the same number is pre or post reverse. Of course, if the stock price rises, so does the purchase price; if the stock decline, so does the purchase price.

     

    A nice writeup of acquisition information is http://bit.ly/1wCqmIP
    30 May, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: The high authorized shares also leaves lots of room for awarding options and warrants to augment the pay of valuable management. Having a lot available might reduce the incentive to be a little frugal with them.

     

    Over the long haul this results in dilution too, as in "fully diluted".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 May, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    RA - Re: "If a shareholder does trust current management, the effective increase of authorized shares does not matter."

     

    I was trying to be as neutral and non-antagonistic as possible. I probably should have written, "If a shareholder forever and irrevocably does trust...", but then somebody might think I am being snarky.
    30 May, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    If you're more of a trader, it's float that you should be most interested in (short term) as far as what value you might realize when you decide to leave the "investment."

     

    If "dilution" happens post reverse split by issuing stock to an entity or entities that "love us, they really love us," then it doesn't really affect the float negatively as they're here to support us, not to trade us.

     

    There's then a much better chance the stock price reacts (or some might save over-reacts into irrational exuberance) positively to actual positive news. You job then (so simple :-) ) is to decide when things get too crazy and bail out ... maybe just for a while, maybe forever. Playing the hype phase is never easy, though we need to the uplisting to get more professional hype-masters interested in playing/supporting our game/team.

     

    But again, this comes down to your trust in management ... whether you believe they've learned their lesson with the PIPE, and whether they've "drawn a few more Aces" and will play their hand more to our benefit.

     

    Unfortunately, even if management plays better or has better cards, then may be outgunned elsewhere ... it's all "hopium" and as RK points out, the game could easily be rigged.
    31 May, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Not only was the trading low for AXPW, but the volume for the major markets were very low. I heard them mention it several times Thur and Fri on CNBC.

     

    The May employment numbers and the ECB meeting next week are weighing heavy on investors. I also think that the election in the Ukraine (and possible military action by Putin) was a major "wait and see" moment for traders and investors alike, the past few days.
    1 Jun, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the final SEC filing of the reverse split.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mwxwHn

     

    Voting materials, which include this Consent Solicitation Statement and a Written Consent form (attached as Appendix B), are being mailed to all stockholders on or about June 4, 2014. Our board of directors set the close of business on May 12, 2014 as the record date for the determination of stockholders entitled to act with respect to the Consent Solicitation (“Record Date”). As of the Record Date, the Company had 221,511,725 shares of Common Stock outstanding, held by approximately 393 holders of record.

     

    29 May, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • dharmabumvida
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    I assume this is the case, but I just wanted confirmation, are there only 393 stock holders? If so, I would guess concentrator members consist of maybe 80-90% of that number, although probably not that actual percent of ownership.
    29 May, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    393 stock holders would be more properly understood as brokerages (I think the correct term). There are multiple thousands of individual shareholders.
    29 May, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    WOW!! 220M shares and really it's effectively closer to 320M+ if you assume the next placement baked in (assuming a raise of 10-15M dollars at a discount to current pps). Compare that to the shares outstanding of the past. I sure hope that smaller piece of a HUGE pie theory holds.

     

    Not long ago a Million shares (of which there are several Axionistas) could have owned you a non trivial percentage of the entire company.

     

    http://on-msn.com/TYb6ak
    29 May, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The proxy materials specify the number of record holders, people with paper stock certificates. All holdings through brokerage firms are aggregated into a single line entry for CEDE & Co, the street name for DTC. In a company like Axion the CEDE position will usually represent 80% or more of the outstanding stock.
    29 May, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    JP are you still expecting a ZRPSOD spike of at least 25% or so? Or has the quiet action of late made you less optimistic.
    30 May, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I'm expecting a 3x to 4x multiple from ZRPSOD, but there's a good deal of fear circulating right now and it may take an event or two to serve as a catalyst. I've always analyzed inflection point events in the rear view mirror instead watching them unfold. I'm hoping that watching Axion unfold will give me a better ability to make short- to medium-term (a couple weeks to a couple months) predictions. For now, I'm wearing my student cap.
    30 May, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    May I ask for a little more detail on your expectations? Are you looking for a 3x to 4x times the stock price, ie. $.16 x 4 = $.64?

     

    TIA
    30 May, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Frankly I think anything under $1 is absurd, but I've thought that for a long time and the market disagreed. Since I can only attribute the current price to supply and demand dynamics, I have to believe the pendulum will swing past reasonable to overvalued once greed overcomes fear. Only time will tell whether I'm right or wrong.
    30 May, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    If TG didn't do poor placements and instead raised funds that lasted 2 years than we wouldn't always be at the mercy of the market.

     

    Once again there is a race against time between investor fear and the next placement. Seems like the placements always come up right before Axionistas get brave enough to average up their positions.

     

    You have been part of many financing, are you bewildered at the seemingly junky terms Axion has gotten in this bull market considering the recent advances in their operation (as you've have outlined)?
    30 May, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    “If at first the idea is not absurd, then there is no hope for it.”
    ― Albert Einstein
    30 May, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I think Tom did the best he could with the facts he had. In early 2010 I would have laughed at the suggestion that any of the four big investors would be sellers in less than thre to five years because they each bought the equivalent of two years of sell side volume. As investments go Axion was a roach motel and there was no way that any of the big uglies could exit without destroying their own value in the process. The idea that they'd all exit was unimaginable.
    30 May, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    That doesn't explain the 2013 PIPE deal though. Seems like many on this board pegged it as a wash out from the get go. Even you seemed to be hard pressed to find a positive a year back? Hard to think 2013 was a bad year to raise funds; but in Axion's case it was.
    30 May, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I'm still convinced that the PIPE was a Plan B alternative to a strategic partner that got greedy at the 11th hour. We'll never hear the back story, but I'd be willing to bet it was a doozy.

     

    Axion's biggest problem for the last four years has been the price chart from hell that's solely attributable to the savage behavior of investors who had no damned business selling in the first place. With that kind of chart and an OTC address the best you can hope for are the loan sharks. If you can present a completely different path for new investors with a reverse split and a market upgrade you can break the cycle. If you don't break the cycle it will continue.

     

    I understand why the actions we're seeing this year couldn't have been implemented earlier, but that doesn't make a four year beat down any easier. The fact is management is a victim of the market, not a proximate cause.
    30 May, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    JP, I gotta call you on, "The fact is management is a victim of the market, not a proximate cause." Total, 101% organic bovine waste.

     

    Certainly trying to raise funds in, say, fall 2008 was problematic, unless you were too big to fail. But positing that every single day of fundraising since then has been hyper-difficult just is not true. Billions (or is it trillions?) have been raised by thousands of companies.

     

    Investors left because of poor performance. OK, Quercus may have had unrelated problems causing them to sell. EVERYBODY, every single investor in every single capital event has sold (and lost money doing that) - that is unrelated to management??? WTF? Axion only attracts investors who want to lose money? Yet every investor who sold is now better off than staying in, and losing even more money. How can you get mad at investors who do not want to lose more money? The four big investors of 2010 were better off leaving - look what happened to the stock price.

     

    Lots of development companies go for many years without sales. However, they keep their enterprise value; investors see lots of up opportunities. Financing has been painful because professional money has not seen Axion's value proposition.

     

    Axion is NOT a "victim of the market" for year after year after year after year. Stop blaming everybody else for all of Axion's problems. If Axion's management had done a good job, investors would be begging to get in, and "elephants" would be waiting in line to acquire the company. The PIPE flood was because almost nobody wanted to buy. The 'price chart from hell' was because of lack of results from New Castle.

     

    I am slightly sorry for such a brusque comment, but I cannot see how you can totally absolve TG and claim he had NOTHING to do with continual failed sales forecasts, loss of key employees, lack of transparency, lack of product marketing, lack of stock marketing, close mindedness, lack of interest to many potential customers, etc. Then what the <expletive deleted> was he responsible for, and why the <expletive deleted> did he get paid millions of dollars? He's a frikkin' magician - he makes money disappear!

     

    Yeah, there will commenters complaining about this post. So ban me. But why are you giving TG a total free pass? According to you, he has not done ANYTHING poorly??? Everything is somebody else's fault? Some people on this board will be more positive about TG, OK. Lots of people will disagree with me, of course. However I do get really pissed off with the complete absence of responsibility.
    31 May, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    RK,

     

    You say it in a way that few would dare but there aren't many left who defend Mr. Granville. If it wasn't for JP's past high regard for the man, I'm sure mutiny would be very near at this point.

     

    Imho, a change in management could help the stock. Furthermore, I don't see someone of TG's age being able to hustle the 70 hour weeks that a startup requires (travel almost every weekend, small cap conferences, road shows, battery shows, truck shows, etc) .

     

    Years back a few on this board used to do parking lots checks in New Castle and mentioned that the place seemed empty after 4:30pm. To me that's hard to fathom since it would only by 1:30 in California. Heck, maybe TG and Vani hammer the phones until 7pm local time but if so it seems their efforts aren't hitting the target.
    31 May, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    Actually, RK, I couldn't agree with you more. I just don't get it. The funny part is I actually try not to be too caustic in my evaluations. I guess I work in a place where people see through malarkey real quick (would use a stronger word, but my colorful language was censored yesterday) and you get called out on the carpet to defend your positions whatever they may be.

     

    TG should be defending his position, at least in a creative manner, not hiding behind NDAs.
    31 May, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    I think you three gents have some valid points, but WRT to quercus and the 2009 investors, I think JP's prime point is that when they wrote their checks for big blocks of illiquid stocks, all of them would have been or should have been looking for their exits multi-years out. And if those entities had stuck to those original plans, rather than selling prematurely and en masse as they in fact did, the chart of AXPW would have looked one whole heckuva lot different than it turned out to look, IE the chart from hell. And such an alternate history would likely have had many other positive 2nd and 3rd order effects circa 2012 and 2013, effects which might have saved everyone much pain.

     

    There are plenty of things of course that TG and crew could have done differently and perhaps should have. I still have issues with their sales/promotion strategy. I'd like to see several more (highly vetted) ePower-sized outfits out there pushing the envelope and doing their mostest with the battery right now. But management, for their own informed reasons, have chosen thus far to pick and choose who they will work with. The ultimate wisdom of it all remains to be seen.

     

    We at last seem to have the beginning of some real traction with BySolar and NSC. If we can just get movement, I think slowly building momentum there will eventually become quite significant and powerful. I remain a huge fan of ePower, and I have my fingers crossed tightly right now to hear the no-kidding full-load fuel economy figures when they come out. Automotive could die on the vine or come out of the blue with some kind of win. Though at present it sure feels like the former. Bottom line, I still think the world will come to find and create major uses for the PbC. Its unique set of properties has true real value. Such so that I think it will eventually gain a large footprint in the world of energy storage and exchange. Yet the process will probably prove to be a very slow burn. But yes, more ePowers right now would certainly be helping...
    31 May, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Rick> You are free to believe whatever you want and blame whomever you want, but uninformed opinions don't change the facts. Until you have sat at the table with steely-eyed investors and negotiated the terms of sequential financing transactions you can't begin to understand the dynamic.

     

    From the outside looking in through the eyes of naiveté management has done a poor job of financing. From the perspective of somebody who's spent over 30 years negotiating comparable transactions management did a fine job under impossible circumstances.

     

    In December 2009 Axion had 40 million equivalent shares outstanding and about 15 million shares in the float, meaning shares that weren't owned by directors, officers and affiliates. By the time you accounted for the old guard who are still with us, the "real float," meaning shares owned by investors who bought their stock in the open market instead of investing directly in the company, was under 5 million shares.

     

    In the fist six months of 2010 a pair of dueling trustees forced 3.5 million additional shares into the real float and crushed the price. That spooked a number of small 2009 investors who forced another 6.5 million shares into the real float. I don't care what commodity you're talking about, when you triple supply and have three times as many willing sellers competing for the same bid the price falls. It's simple economics and the immutable laws of supply and demand.

     

    Axion started 2011 with about 12 million shares in the real float and for the second year in a row reckless selling by three large investors forced another 32 million new shares into the real float. When you have almost four times as many willing sellers competing for the same bid the price falls. It's simple economics and the immutable laws of supply and demand.

     

    Axion had it easy in 2012 and 2013 because reckless selling only doubled supply as the real float climbed from the mid-40s to the mid-80s to the high-150s.

     

    Today the real float stands at about 205 million shares and all of the growth has been a handful of reckless sellers forcing shares into the market rather than growing demand absorbing the shares.

     

    Stock markets are like babies. If you let them eat when they want and as much as they want everybody is happy. If you try to force feed them they puke all over you. Over the last four years Axion's market baby that was used to digesting selling pressure from 5 million shares of real float has been force fed another 200 million shares.

     

    When you're looking for a scapegoat management is always an easy target because "the bastards must have done everything terribly wrong." When you set aside your anger and take an objective look at the facts it becomes clear that selling stockholders force fed shares into an illiquid market at a 4-year CAGR of over 250%.

     

    The last four years have been a period of solid business and technical progress at Axion. But that progress hasn't been enough to overcome the negative impact of a 250% growth rate in the share supply.

     

    If Quercus and the Big Uglies had been responsible investors instead of acting like savages, the outcome would have been very different.

     

    As long as you're angry and lashing out you'll never understand what really happened.
    31 May, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4453) | Send Message
     
    So ... where does one find those investors that both have real money (that Axionistas don't) and a willingness to be a "tarheel"?
    31 May, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The idea that Axionistas as a group are somehow "out of money" is sophistry. At the end of 2009, the Axionistas numbered in the low hundreds and collectively owned 5 million shares. Today they number in the middle thousands and collectively own 205 million shares. Many of us who've suffered through the last four years have reached our limit. Others are just getting started.

     

    Last Wednesday I met with an Axionista who bought a seven figure stock position early 2012 and has tripled his ownership since then. His current quandary is deciding whether it would make more sense to invest in ePower or buy another seven figure slug of Axion.

     

    Every time I've dealt with a supply and demand imbalance, the stockholders thought they were hugely overweight until the stock started to perform. Then they decided they were underweight.

     

    The tar heels are out there and they have well-known names, but they also have policies that prohibit the purchase of penny stocks and stocks that aren't listed on a national exchange. The plan outlined in the proxy statement is crafted to make Axion suitable for tar heels. There are no guarantees that Tom will be able to land a couple of tar heels if the plan is approved, but I can guarantee that there won't be any tar heels without approval, which means that management will have to bite bullet and go another round with the ghetto financiers.
    31 May, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    JP, you are a securities attorney, so I see why you see financing as the primary issue facing the company. I think the financing is not the primary, or even a secondary, issue.

     

    I do understand what you wrote; you have communicated those details several times already. However, they are irrelevant details.

     

    I am not a finance guy, but I assume TG did as good as possible finance deal, with the facts he had. Perhaps not great, but not ranting awful or downright stupid.

     

    The problem was the day before looking for financing:

     

    lotsa cash or a/r - nope
    lotsa past positive results - nope
    lotsa customers - nope
    lotsa multiple purchases for ongoing cash generation - nope
    lotsa back orders or backlog - nope
    lotsa distribution - nope
    lotsa effective marketing and product promotion - nope
    lotsa mindshare in industry - nope
    lotsa effective stock marketing - nope
    lotsa independent acclaim (universities, governments, media, NGOs) - nope
    lotsa superstar employees - nope
    lotsa high profile investors - nope
    lotsa smart money investors - nope
    lotsa other companies integrating your product - nope
    lotsa demonstrably valuable IP - nope
    lotsa great company culture and enthusiasm, low employee loss - nope
    lotsa charisma and enthusiasm by top management - nope
    lotsa secrets - yeah, but this is not always in the plus category

     

    Not a whole lotta reasons to throw money at this dog, is there? The horrific financings absolutely were the inevitable result of all those ‘nopes’. Even if TG had seduced old ladies as in ‘The Producers’, all those nopes would still be there a year or two later.

     

    If there had been a lot of “Yeahs!” instead of “nopes”, Axion would not have had such financing challenges. The shares sold by your “big uglies” would have been eagerly absorbed by investors who want in early. Your view that the market for shares of nano-cap stocks in the green sector is limited is counter to the world I live in. Hundreds of billions are raised. Every week I get newsletters of companies raising
    tens of millions. There are many investors looking for good investments; Axion has repeatedly demonstrated it is not.

     

    Why am I so angry at TG? Not just because of the above, but he is not changing anything or trying to do better or getting out of the way. Just “pay me the big bucks” and “don’t worry your little head” because “it’s not MY fault” and “it’s the big bad banksters that are out to get us”.

     

    31 May, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    Welcome to the world of R&D companies that can't have customers or repeat sales until they have a product that can be manufactured with acceptable quality at relevant scale for a reasonable price. For R&D companies that haven't launched a commercial product yet, financing is every bit as important as the rest of the effort because you can't finance R&D without money.

     

    As long as you insist on applying established company metrics to measure the success of an R&D effort you'll inevitably reach the wrong conclusion.

     

    This baby is learning how to walk and you criticizing a poor showing in the Boston Marathon.

     

    If you want:

     

    lotsa cash and a/r;
    lotsa past positive results;
    lots customers;
    lotsa multiple purchases for ongoing cash generation;
    lotsa back orders or backlog;
    lotsa distribution;
    lotsa effective marketing and product promotion;
    lotsa mindshare in industry;
    lotsa effective stock marketing;
    lotsa independent acclaim;
    lotsa superstar employees;
    lotsa high profile investors;
    lotsa smart money investors;
    lotsa other companies integrating your product;
    lotsa demonstrably valuable IP;
    lotsa great company culture and enthusiasm, low employee loss; and
    lotsa charisma and enthusiasm by top management

     

    Buy ENS or JCI and ignore the rest of the sector.

     

    If you want to buy a $30 million market cap with a billion dollar potential buy AXPW.

     

    They're entirely different species and you're obviously looking in the wrong section of the zoo.
    31 May, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    JP, guess we agree to disagree. I mentioned 19 'lotsa's above, only five have anything to do with "established company metrics". The other 14 are applicable to companies with zero revenue and R&D companies.

     

    I work with some angel groups. Probably the most important thing we look at before investing is the PERSON. TG fails. Sorry, not polite.

     

    Your Boston Marathon analogy may be colorful, but wrong. This not-so-young kid (almost 10 years as a company, almost 70 as an individual) is living on a diet of Cheezwiz and Coke, hasn't trained in months, spends so much money on personal stuff he can't the afford entrance fees, hasn't shown up for half the races he entered, and blames the weather why he (and nobody else) did so poorly in other events? Now he's coming around saying when he wins the Marathon this year he will pay everybody back with his winnings, so please give more money. PS: He has super secret sneakers that will make him win, but he can't show them to anybody.
    31 May, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    The first thing I have to evaluate before getting involved with a client is the people. I learned ages ago that a great team with a mediocre idea was a better deal than a mediocre team with a great idea. You spent a day or two reaching your conclusions on Axion's team and capabilities. I spent a couple months before getting involved and several years after getting involved.

     

    With all due respect I trust my judgment based on years of experience more than yours.

     

    In ten and a half years with this team I've never heard them blame anybody else when a project didn't come together or didn't come together within the expected timeframe. I've never heard Tom Granville publicly savage somebody else because they couldn't come to a meeting of the minds. Hell, he doesn't even speak badly of the PIPErs although I'm confident that I'd get an earful over an adult beverage.

     

    I'm always saddened by former stockholders who go out of their way to publicly and repeatedly trash companies and individuals that didn't satisfy their unreasonable expectations. I find the behavior shameful.
    31 May, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Hhmmmm, I am wondering if the APC gods are watching and preparing for another round of time out!
    31 May, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1470) | Send Message
     
    "Last Wednesday I met with an Axionista who bought a seven figure stock position early 2012 and has tripled his ownership since then."

     

    This sounds like me except the seven figure part ;)

     

    Hopefully I'll be in this guy's league after Axion is successful!
    31 May, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, I hope not. It's a fair exchange of different perspectives. Could it be a little less course? Sure but it's not out of control.

     

    But then it's not my forum.
    31 May, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, JP.

     

    Unless the grinding of an ax is the dramatic prelude to an act of splendid construction of something new, it is an activity that holds little interest for most everyone else, and is better done in one's shed, rather than in the public square.
    31 May, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    RBrun - this is a very healthy dialogue in my opinion. These positions need to be argued. I may have the knowledge to argue them, but not the experience, so I appreciate that it is coming from Rick.

     

    John - resorting to calling RK's honest evaluation from his seat to shameful is not fair argument in my opinion.

     

    p.s. I have to head down to Fort Myers for the day so I will not see the rest of this great argument until later.
    31 May, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    RB,

     

    I hope you're being sarcastic. As adults we should be allowed to disagree without being disagreeable. Even heated discussion is ok (even encouraged) as long as it doesn't get personal. And on that latter matter I think it should be up to the offended to report his/her disdain. I don't think it serves the board to jump in and protect just on the suspicion that someone feelings might get hurt in the future.
    31 May, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    As a lawyer I'm sure you're used to seeing/anticipating 2 or more sides to every debate. Also I imagine you wouldn't have written the last paragraph if Axion wasn't your "old team". Imho, I think this debate serves our APC group well as long as we don't pass judgement on others who appear to be expressing genuine viewpoints.
    31 May, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Yada, Yada, Yada.

     

    RK .... perhaps we can reframe this mostly old, unlikely to change anyone's mind debate into ...

     

    Do you have any idea what it would cost to get a CEO that has the qualities you think we need?

     

    For you old Boston Celtic fans, Elon Musk "isn't walking through that door."

     

    Do you think there are many of these kind of people out there that we have a chance to afford? Seems to me it would be pretty rare individual that has the qualities you desire but still wants to go "old school" (on the face of it) in a Lead Acid related company.

     

    Note our CFO took off rather quickly for greener pastures. Of course there was much speculation, but we'll never know exactly why.

     

    As someone else suggested ... what's our alternative to TG?

     

    Devil we know, or the one we don't?

     

    Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if he "declares victory" and chucks the whole thing if he can get the RS done, add a couple of solid strategic partners, and announce a few real wins he can feel good about.
    31 May, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    In terms of Rick's and John's debate, it seems to me that there are two ways to run a company. Within bounds, they are both legitimate, but depend on the personalities of the people in charge.

     

    The first, you might call the demonstration method. In that method, the company does general marketing to various companies to try to get them to do R+D projects to integrate their product. Once that is done, they have customers who produce revenue.

     

    In the second, a higher emphasis is placed on general public relations. Explaining to the world how the world will be such a better place, which excites the stock buying public and potential customers and other "good-wishers" of minimal value. The public relations campaign then produces a wave of enthusiasm which helps propel sales and stock buying.

     

    The danger of the first option is that it doesn't create enough enthusiasm to keep the financial world happy. The danger in the second option is a veering into unethical, but well meaning promises that can't be fulfilled.

     

    My own personal preference is for the first option, Rick seems to disagree I think. Another company I've been watching - stock symbol MNGA has been deeply in the second option, with some of the hype bordering on (though not crossing into) lies. That stock has held up reasonably well through the financing rounds, but the methods leave such a poor taste in my mouth I haven't bought any stock.

     

    So by style, I'm with John in this argument, though I don't claim any expertise on the importance of style. One pointed criticism of Rick is his statement about "magic running shoes". I don't think that's fair to Tom's style. Tom is saying that he has unique R+D that some customers find critical to their projects - NS, ePower and PowerCube. That may be wrong, but the customers seem to be saying its true. If that's real, its not "magic running shoes".
    31 May, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    "If you want to buy a $30 million market cap with a billion dollar potential buy AXPW."

     

    That works out to be roughly 33 times the current share price or $5.33.

     

    Way too small a value for my taste. I will be one of those who will eventually, hopefully, get my money back at some point and then just let the rest ride, expectantly into the Wild Blue Yonder! To sort of; Boldly go where none of my holdings have gone before!
    31 May, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Rest easy that I am not judging or expressing an opinion, more of a snarky observation!

     

    If JP and Rick wish to entertain us with their ongoing debates I will be pushing to get a front row seat as I believe they both are equally qualified to express their beliefs professionally!

     

    I do wish we could have a pretty girl walk around the ring holding up the round number in between sessions though!

     

    Just saying!
    31 May, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    AiB: "Boldly go where none of my holdings have gone before!"

     

    Now, you *know* that deserved a link. You *know* it!

     

    Don't be lazy my man! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    31 May, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    AL,

     

    You may want to conservatively figure a fully diluted 333M shares into your calculation sense Axion will be issuing stock very soon (i.e. weeks or months). Thus 1B market cap would only be a $3 stock. I'll take it but I hope you get your extra zero.
    31 May, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, When do they throw out the loaves of bread? Panem et circenses! ;-P
    31 May, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    HTL ...

     

    here's your sign ... er ... link

     

    http://bit.ly/1hKlmIv
    31 May, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1497) | Send Message
     
    Rick> John or any or us in John's position of being a founder and former Director of Axion, with personal experience working with current management/Directors is not going to publicly criticize them and burn bridges. John may be disappointed with management or he may not, but I think it's foolish to think he would be publicly outspoken with any criticism he may harbor. Not gonna happen IMO. Might as well let it rest.
    31 May, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I often criticize Axion's public persona and stockholder engagement as the worst I've ever seen. I just refuse to blame management for market dynamics that arose from the savage behavior of a handful of big investors.
    31 May, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1497) | Send Message
     
    "His current quandary is deciding whether it would make more sense to invest in ePower or buy another seven figure slug of Axion. "

     

    No brainer ePower. Not just for diversification's sake but the reward/risk is tremendous in ePower now pre real world data and pre-IPO. They've got a developed technology that *already works* as proven by the mpg numbers they have *already gotten*. The R&D phase is in essence over; it's just tweaking now and plenty reason to believe there are major tweaks and efficiency gains still ahead. With working prototypes *ready* for commercial use *now* in the real world one can only imagine the kind of buzz these fuel efficiency gains will generate amongst truckers, a community that represents a multi billion dollar market potential whose #1 problem and expense is fuel/emissions.

     

    What can we suppose will happen with grapevine and media attention on a startup company that soon will demonstrate some of the most dramatic fuel efficiency gains the trucking industry has ever seen?

     

    I just cannot imagine a sweeter spot of opportunity to get in at the ground level of something like this, which is why I am an ePower investor. I may never get another opportunity at the ground floor of something I feel this strongly about, and that's looking for investment opportunities every day.
    31 May, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    WtB: LoL! I never would have imagined. I'm sure glad I omitted the "To ... sort of ..." (hard to mimic Shatner from a keyboard). :-))

     

    HardToLove
    31 May, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    wtb - I don't think we need St. Elon. I think there could be many candidates that could be well-incented with a strong options and stock package and more reasonable short term salary than the company is paying now. I think changing direction, almost any direction (not necessarily mine), would be an extremely powerful plus for the company's valuation. That kind of news would also make the RS split a lot more palatable for many people, and give a focused reason for it. Even better would be TG publicly "blessing" the changeover, so the ugliness of a dismissal is bypassed.
    31 May, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    James - I appreciate your comment. However, I hope you don't think I have ever tried to steer the company towards unethical hype. I have been a very vocal opponent of greenwash and unsubstantiated (bogus) hype in many forums, not just with Axion. Some consider my negative comments too extreme against present management; I assure you I would be equally vocal if the company was making up nonsense claims.

     

    Analogies can often be misconstrued, sorry. The 'magic shoes' was not about NS, ePower, and PowerCubes, but rather all the NDAs and lack of basic information on Axion's supposedly commercial products. However, given our lack of knowledge regarding the actual outcomes from those three customers, I can't give a green light yet. NS has been playing with the batteries for about four years; nobody has seen the 999 in action. Epower is still in development and has not published any hard comparison data yet; my guess it is still a few months before data is released. I am not sure if the first Bysolar PC is installed yet; I certainly have not seen any data on its performance in NJ. These are not negatives, just known unknowns.
    31 May, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    RA - I, too, do not expect JP to publicly excoriate TG. He could easily simply stop defending him so emphatically.
    31 May, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    I expect ePower's data to be released in stages as the data is collected.

     

    Our summary in-house test results for the sleeper cab should be out within a week or two. Our summary test results for the day cab should follow in about a month.

     

    The results of our first short-term lease to a local independent trucker should be published within a week or so after the conclusion of the one-month test. Each subsequent demonstration lease to a fleet operator will generate another report. We plan to follow the same reporting cycle with the day cab.

     

    I like to think we're realists at ePower and we don't believe for a minute that a fleet operator will give a tinkers dam about the data we generate hauling concrete blocks over hill and dale. When we lease the truck to Joe Dokes for a month and he generates a report that says "I hauled these loads over these routes and got these fuel economy results," the data gets more credible but remains unconvincing. The only results that will really matter to a particular trucker are the results he gets during a demonstration lease where he hauls his loads on his routes with his drivers.

     

    We are really lucky because we can require data from potential customers as a condition of a demonstration lease. There's nothing the potential customers will view as particularly proprietary and they're always eager to earn a green star by trying something new, even if they don't decide to buy something new. It puts us in a position that's analogous to Tesla's. We get bragging rights and so do the trucking companies that help us move forward.

     

    Different business different rules.
    31 May, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    JP, right on one point. In the last year or two you have blamed management for poor PR and stockholder relations. My bad, and my apology.
    31 May, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    by Ralph Wanger: Management can be guarded, especially if they know we own a lot of their stock. But their competitors will usually talk freely about them. It's like trying to find out about a young lady you are interested in. If you ask her mother, you are certainly going to get a different perspective than you would if you asked the boyfriend she has broken up with. We like to hear what the boyfriend has to say.
    31 May, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Good managers, like good tea, can only be appreciated when they are in hot water.
    31 May, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    Topcat, Well we can each judge for ourselves because the management at AXPW has been dancing in phase change material for a few years.

     

    http://bit.ly/1u391GJ
    31 May, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Rick, great comment (beginning of this thread) but I think you are missing the cause and effect that those four major holders had on the stock price. When I first read the reports on who was selling all those shares, my first thought was, WHAT DO THEY KNOW? I'm sure many others thought the same, so they sold. I did not. I kept chugging along adding and adding to my position. That had nothing to do with TG.

     

    That is my major beef with the reverse split. I feel that now, I have wasted 5 years of accumulation and balancing out my portfolio accordingly. There is no guarantee the stock price will hold after the split. 90% of the time it doesn't. I am really torn about this.
    1 Jun, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Masi, If you survived the 2013 PIPE you will likely survive this next round with less stress. But yes you'll have to average down again to maintain your same ownership percentage. Sadly, averaging down is the only way to stay in this game (and only if you suspect and eventual 100%+ run off the post placement bottom).
    1 Jun, 04:20 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    ''I'm always saddened by former stockholders who go out of their way to publicly and repeatedly trash companies and individuals that didn't satisfy their unreasonable expectations. I find the behavior shameful."

     

    This should be a disclaimer for all RK posts.
    It has become too obvious.
    1 Jun, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    "As adults we should be allowed to disagree without being *disagreeable*. "
    Sadly, this is not always the case.
    1 Jun, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2535) | Send Message
     
    mag - I am a current shareholder who has never sold a share and accumulated since 2010. I don't agree with your assessment of RK posts.
    1 Jun, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8969) | Send Message
     
    Magounsq, me either. He is a welcome contributor IMO.

     

    I do however find he has some human flaws. But then, I'm still dreaming about being Vulcan but alas w/o a cloaking device! ;-I
    2 Jun, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1259) | Send Message
     
    I too am long AXPW and appreciate RK's posts.
    2 Jun, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    "held by approximately 393 holders of record."

     

    What does that mean. I guess I am strictly third class. Down in the bowels of Axion stock, fighting for a life jacket. "Never let go Rose...never let go"
    29 May, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    I'm really surprised how much trouble I am having finding a good video of a "herd of goats" for illustrating the oncoming onslaught of battery-powered locomotives featuring PbCs.

     

    Now, it has been mentioned that the NS999 is not a Green Goat. Agreed. But I will not be part of any "Green Weenie" parade. fuhgeddaboutit.

     

    As it happens, the most likely early role for the PbC has been often cited as "slug". omG, that is not helpful. I hate slugs. Bare feet and slugs are not compatible.

     

    But it doesn't matter, because the PbC might not be a "slug" at all. A slug has no prime mover and that can't be said so precisely about a PbC-powered locomotive. A slug has a "mother", but so does a "calf". And a calf has a prime mover - just no man-crew.

     

    So what I need to find is a video of a herd of cows and calves.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mwFzUB

     

    very Zen in Full Screen mode.
    29 May, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    EM
    http://bit.ly/1hDMGrH

     

    Not very Zen but very fun!
    :-))
    29 May, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, everything is relative as I'm sure you know. In a recent collision investigation between a slug and a turtle, the slug was asked what happened, he replied, I don't know, it happened so fast!
    Do you employ chemistry in your predictions of the future?
    30 May, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    A bit of ammonia to clean my crystal ball would be about the extent of it. And some beer, though not for the crystal ball.
    30 May, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    Thanks that clears it up. Are the most recent Gen2 and Gen3 road test on the website? I looked for the most recent dates of the road test. The most recent I found was 3/14 City, would that have been the Gen2 or 3
    30 May, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29666) | Send Message
     
    That would have been the Gen3 tractor before the latest round of transmission and gearing changes to bring the drive motor into its optimal torque band.
    30 May, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP
    30 May, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    froggey, that was great! lmao
    1 Jun, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17448) | Send Message
     
    05/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 10, MinTrSz: 102, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 56002, AvTrSz: 5600
    Min. Pr: 0.1707, Max Pr: 0.1760, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1750
    # Buys, Shares: 5 22002, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1760
    # Sells, Shares: 5 34000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1744
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.55 (39.29% "buys"), DlyShts 21300 (38.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.65%

     

    Yesterday's test and failure of the resistance at $0.18, which held, apparently carried over to today. 10 trades, 56K traded shares for $9,801.3216. What a let down after improved volume yesterday allowed me to get somewhat silly with “We don't yet have a trend with consistent volume and behavior, but I can at last see the possibility that we might be able to break out. But we've had this $0.18 approached before, broken intra-day and held, and then “leg down” to $0.155 and the 50-day SMA”.

     

    VWAP improvement broke down after three consecutive days of improvement.

     

    In my non-traditional TA area, buy percentage stopped moving in a “robust” fashion: ...

     

    Less than usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    29 May, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Calm before the storm?
    29 May, 07:38 PM Reply Like