Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (319)
Track new comments
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2384) | Send Message
     
    O primeiro...

     

    (and not editorializing, to the relief of many...)
    18 Jun, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3447) | Send Message
     
    Nonsense Rick.

     

    People don't say that about you, as far as you know...

     

    ;)
    18 Jun, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (196) | Send Message
     
    There is a major message in this dramatic shift in volume. We just have not worked it out. We have gone from sustained multi-million daily volumes to practically zero in a matter of weeks. The big question is who was soaking up the pipe shares. I dont have an answer. Dr Love would be my first "phone a friend" for this. How can pipes sell 50m shares in a few weeks and then whoever had the resources to purchase stopped buying at the exact time they stopped selling. I suggest two scenarios. First is that the MMs have accumulated. Second is that there was an agreement by a third part to absorb the pipe shares. I dont even know if either of these are possible. But I didnt see this death of volume before.
    18 Jun, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I think we're in the eye of a storm. The sell-side has passed.
    18 Jun, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    I thought this weeks volume chart was amazing. The 10-day average volume is currently 181,650 shares a day, a level we haven't seen since March 19, 2013.

     

    The 10-day moving average liquidity (daily average price times total daily volume) is currently $28,400, a level we haven't seen since October 25, 2011.

     

    The answer to your question of "who bought all those shares?" is simple. It was hundreds (thousands?) of retail investors who did their homework, climbed their own wall of worry and bought in spite of the price chart from hell.

     

    A few months back I wrote that the clearest sign of ZRPSOD would be a major decline in trading volume as buyers who've seen nothing but overwhelming sell-side pressure for over a year wonder where the sellers went. I think it's safe to say we've had that volume decline in spades.

     

    The next stage will arrive when the investors who are still building a position come to the realization that there are no more cheap shares to be had and if they want to fill out their target position they'll have to pay the offer instead of bidding a couple tenths low and expecting sellers to come to them.

     

    Axion's last three financing transactions have been extremely painful because the purchasers force fed a relatively illiquid market and the market puked all over them. Today the big fear is that management learned nothing from four years of pain and the next financing round will be worse than the last one. IMO the documents we're seeing from the company prove that management has learned some critical lessons and is doing its level best to implement a sensible reverse split that will let us move out of the OTC ghetto and stop doing business with payday lenders and other OTC predators.

     

    If I were structuring Axion's next financing, I'd get my reverse split authorization in place by early July, spend the next two months negotiating a financing round and a market listing upgrade and plan on bringing all the pieces together in early September once the investing world gets back from vacation. During the interval between the reverse split authorization and the planned closing I'd try to firm up my stock price so that I could enter the pricing negotiations from a position of strength rather than weakness.

     

    In an ideal world I'd want to register my next round on Form S-3, which is only available to seasoned issuers who have a $75 million market capitalization. With 222 million shares outstanding, Tom can't pull that rabbit out of the hat without a $0.34 stock price. Getting to that price level might take some work, but it would be worth the effort.

     

    None of this stuff is rocket science and whether we want to believe it or not, Axion is in a pretty good position to pull it all together. The core stockholder base has no interest in selling at the current price. The investors who have been waiting for the supply side to loosen up are not likely to see their dreams come true. If they want a larger position, the only way to get it will be to pay up and quit bottom feeding for tenths of a penny.
    18 Jun, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    Dance: "What" is easy, "why" is hard.

     

    I've never thought MM's take long-term long positions, but may occasionally have short-term long positions, due *mostly* to share flow related to trading mechanics, which positions I think they exit at a reasonably quick pace. Some of the well-capitalized MMs could, I guess, actually go long through buying, but I really don't think they would hold these positions. They would be doing that rarely and only due to a perceived opportunity and their ability to influence market behavior IMO.

     

    ARCA dropped offers to the bid, temporarily "locking" the market, twice yesterday. The moves were from the best offer at $0.1569 from ATDF at the time to $0.1501 (the best bid from BNCH at the time) by ARCA at 9:38, and at 14:50 to $0.1503, same as bid, when the best offer was $0.1559 from BNCH at the time.

     

    I don't know what to make of that sort of behavior. It mimics behavior when we knew we had PIPErs in play, except in degree - don't recall seeing such an aggressive lowering by ARCA in the past, it was usually a tenth or two at worst IIRC.

     

    With buys still low, albeit improved a bit to 21.4%, and ARCA behaving that way and short percentage up five-fold and volume up over four-fold my best guess is that someone wanted out of their position quickly. My TFH wonders if the 300K bid at $0.15 from ATDF that stood all day was to help someone get out above $0.15.

     

    I'm thinking that potential buyers are mostly holding off awaiting a positive sign of some kind - understandable since so many positive forecasts from Axion over the years have failed to materialize. Some will be looking at their (currently overweight?) positions and deciding there's no need to add any risk, others may be looking at it from an opportunity cost POV, ...

     

    It may be that, like me, I do not accept the onus of correcting Axion-induced pps problems and don't worry about missing some of the upside. I don't need shares flowing out my ears to be satisfied with the gains I might get if pps does do something very positive very quickly. And I don't need the added risk of again relying on various forecasts about what will happen, whether it be pps, RS, use of treasury shares by Axion, ...

     

    "Bears make money, bulls make money, hogs get slaughtered".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Jun, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I haven't bought this month, but I am one of the thousands John mentioned. My last purchase was May 21. I was buying when the pipers we're selling because I knew they were presenting an opportunity. This year I have 13 buys to obtain 100,000 shares. I made one sale of 5000 at 0.21 on that particular March day just for the fun of it; I told myself it was part of the 10K 10-cent shares I bought myself for Christmas (on Christmas Eve), but Fidelity tells me it was a $2000 long-term loss.

     

    There has been and still seems to be an endless supply of bottom-food around for guys like me who buy 100's of dollars at a time. I already have purchases at every flavor from 0.09 to 0.24; missing 0.12, 0.19 and 0.21.

     

    I am optimistic about the future, but I've penciled myself into a wait-and-see mode now that the PIPErs have left and news is imminent.
    18 Jun, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    I wish you the best of luck with that strategy Edmund. The current volume tells me that there are hundreds of formerly active buyers who have gone into wait and see mode. They're all sitting at their computers waiting for something to happen before they finish filling out their position. When something happens, it's going to be a real horse race as hundreds of waiters decide the time has come to fill out that position. Most will find themselves chasing a price instead of enjoying the run.
    18 Jun, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    There have only been two times when I considered selling my durable assets or take out a loan to buy stock: March 2009 in the S&P and Dec-Jan 2013 in AXPW.
    18 Jun, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    dance, I think if you lower the price back to 0.09 then you would probably see the volumes we had when the PIPErs were selling hard. Put in a market sell order for 1M shares and I think you would easily prove it to yourself.
    18 Jun, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1804) | Send Message
     
    Axionistas have exhausted themselves and only news will bring out further reserves. What we need are news and articles to bring in new money.
    18 Jun, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    I think everyone who liked JPs post above should bookmark it and revisit it in about three months. I already posted my thoughts on this theory so won't repeat other than to say significant share price appreciation will only come when the sales book starts filling its pages.
    18 Jun, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Shirleyr
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Interesting quote. What is the definition of a 'hog', investing more than one can afford to lose?
    18 Jun, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    Shirleyr: My understanding is that a "hog" chases exorbitant profits when they already have great profits at hand. I presume the mantra originated with the trading community which generally advocates predefined entry and exit points.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    There was a single entity buying ~4-6 million shares in a few days in early March.

     

    Nothing solid to back that up with but that's just what I felt was happening at the time.
    18 Jun, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    "The investors who have been waiting for the supply side to loosen up are not likely to see their dreams come true"

     

    I think this is sanguine. In 2015 instead of 225M shares out there should be between 50% and 100% more shares IMO. Some of those new shares could be for sale (it would only take a small %), or disgust at a lack of expected news happening could loosen up some existing shares, or the uplisting could attract predatory short selling.

     

    Axion is still burning cash at nearly as high a rate as ever. Something has to change to ameliorate that. The market may get excited about other news or it may not, but the bottom line is the bottom line. As long as Axion continues to fund its operations by printing shares rather than selling batteries, I would not underestimate the potential for some disenchanted shareholders selling out.

     

    Let's hope the selling of batteries starts in earnest soon.
    18 Jun, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Dance - you could be right about a silent 3rd party picking up 100 million shares for 9 (or even 10) million bucks, while the pipers win their way for the short term and the silent partner(s) win for the long term, their way, if it's all legal!!!! Or maybe not.

     

    And during that process, all the bottom fishers bettered their positions averaging down while eating some of the 3rd party(s) opportunity, but only a small portion of the 100 million shares.

     

    Regardless, the pre-100 million additional new owners surely have locked in a future earning of only $0.50 from a future $1.00. A half-bagger.

     

    And, if post-reverse split of say 1:50, the current 200 million become 4 million shares, and another funding campaign at $0.15 for $10 million chewing up 60 million new shares pushing the new post RS upper limit of authorized shares at 100 million shares, we (the "original" shareholders), no longer hold a half-bagger, but a what, .5/15 = 0.03 bagger???

     

    Worst case. No dilution if you want to claim that. But those future earnings get split many new places, and of course, P/E's go ??????? Not up!!!
    18 Jun, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    And on the other hand,

     

    1). we could hope for a real soon epower demonstrator wanting to convert some 500 of his 13,000 truck fleet,

     

    2). PMJ et.al. ordering up another 68 power cubes,

     

    3). NS demoing and pre-ordering 19 yard-switchers,

     

    all of which would contribute some $10 million of sales, EACH.

     

    So place your bets, folks. The race is on.
    18 Jun, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    njb ... with your dream scenario I MIGHT get back to breakeven which would require ~15X current share price.
    18 Jun, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (196) | Send Message
     
    The issue I have with the notion that retail investors purchased the millions of pipe shares is this. That theory requires retail investors to be interested in purchasing huge quantities of stock at roughly 10c for the first 3 months of the year and then 16c until the Pipe ran dry. Millions of shares each day were changing hands at these prices. This means that hundreds of investors were looking at AXPW share price since march and thinking "hmm, 16c. looks a bargain". But when the pipe flood ended am I supposed to believe that these hundreds of investors suddenly decided "hmm 16c. I think I will hold back and wait for news."

     

    Shares were available for sale at 16c today (all week actually) and no one wants them.

     

    Bit of a coincidence don't you think? Pipe dries up and ALL the hundreds of investors simultaneously decide to stop buying.

     

    Anyway, we had news. Axion sold four powercubes. I found the news exciting. But all the hundreds of investors all though "hmm...16c was cheap but with four pc sales I think I'll pass".

     

    Something is not right with this picture. Which reminds me. Did Nancy Drew ever date the Hardy Boys?
    18 Jun, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    ZRPSOD occurred at roughly the same time as the reverse split proposal. I think the reverse split and all the angst the proposal generated is the reason we saw volume plummet. As a group, the Axionistas are inveterate bottom feeders and while they've always been happy to take stock away from determined sellers, they seem very reluctant to bid the price up.

     

    I've long believed it would take the market some time to heal and that very low volume would be a normal step in the healing process.
    18 Jun, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4610) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Sadly, all to true. I also wonder how tarheeled Axionistas actually may be. In the recent "rally" into the $0.20's was met with much heavier bias to the downside. Isaw this as existing shareholders scalping and no new money. Normal response but detrimental to the idea of that rocketsled ride some keep expecting. This probably doesn't apply to even a majority (& HTL might be able verify), but it doesn't take a majority to change the share price. Just a loopside book.
    18 Jun, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Shirleyr
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that my thought was off the mark. I am not a 'hog' by that definition.
    18 Jun, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "ZRPSOD occurred at roughly the same time as the reverse split proposal. I think the reverse split and all the angst the proposal generated is the reason we saw volume plummet."

     

    I don't think the reverse split proposal had anything to do with it. More likely explanation is absence of 'significant sales' projected since last Summer, no NS999 moving under its own power, no ePower truck(s) "in the wild", no observable progress on PbC populated MultiLink product sales, and tabling of a reverse split proposal coupled with retention of 350 million share authorization.
    18 Jun, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Bets indeed, a real horse track.
    19 Jun, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Drich - absent something material, there is no rocket sled. simple reality of supply and demand. Add a 100M shares to the float and its hard to go anywhere.
    19 Jun, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I thought the idea was that an RS ultimately means uplisting and then leaving the otc ghetto. Heck, the RS debate has died down but volume still dead on this name with negative bias.

     

    Is there any chance that all the buying we saw earlier wasn't retail but rather institutional?

     

    Why then would 100s of Axionistas if they liked it at 15 cents before just now quit liking it. Or maybe they were buying into the ZRPSOD theory that never happened.
    19 Jun, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> I don't see any possibility that institutions have been buying big positions in Axion. Fund managers are fiduciaries and very few have the authority to buy stocks that are only listed on the OTC. I've seen a couple funds over the course of my career that had special pools for low-priced stocks, but they're rare as hens teeth. So I'm convinced the buying has all been retail.

     

    Reverse-split proposals are unsettling. So is the knowledge that additional financing is required. If you look at the volume chart you can generally identify pronounced periods of low volume before a financing. When you add in expectations for long-delayed events like the NS 999 and news of how the Gen3 ePower tractor is performing, there's lots of uncertainty swirling through the market, along with fears that an evil cohort of flippers bought a bunch of stock when the price was low and will hammer the market when the price begins to move.

     

    These are all elements of battered stockholders syndrome and while most of us believe management learned some critical lessons in the last couple deals, few are willing to assume that the plan to reverse, uplist and do a sensible financing will be successful. We have hope but not certainty.

     

    When the PIPErs were pounding stock into the market at obvious bargain prices it was easy to slurp up a deal. Today, sensible investors understand that building a position will require them to pay up for the shares and that's a different decision dynamic.

     

    I believe the current trading lull is transitory and prelude to a significant spike, but my previous experience with these inflections was all rear-view mirror analysis so I don't have a basis to predict when the change will come.
    19 Jun, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (196) | Send Message
     
    Volume died on April 10th, or maybe you could say April 23rd at the latest. The really small volume <50k days started on 29th May. The reverse split was announced on May 2nd. So RS on its own can not account for all of the volume fall.

     

    I don't have any answers but I still do not see native SA investors soaking up 100million pipe shares and then stopping.

     

    Here is another observation. Looking at the volume chart at the beginning of march we say a huge volume spike with a 100% share price jump over a period of a week. This was a large investor taking up a position. I am pretty sure of that. He/she is probably sitting on about 10million shares. So I think large investors are out there.
    19 Jun, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1804) | Send Message
     
    When the March spike happened, I noted large bids being posted way above ask, to either soak shares or rally the stock. This is not Axionista behavior.
    19 Jun, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    I know a couple individuals who've accumulated 4 to 5 million shares each and a few in the Million+ Club. I don't know of any institutional or fund holders. My knowledge is far from perfect, but everything I know points to large numbers of retail investors who are just catching their breath and trying to figure out go-forward strategies.
    19 Jun, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    I see your point. It is easy to lay a few grand here and there but those who want 50K to 500k positions - can't get them too easily now.

     

    I still wonder if we had a few BIG stealth buyers (maybe just "qualified" investor types who took the opposite of all those PIPE trades). Seems like we have some nibblers who publically post but bigger money is silent. Let's just hope its there and on the buyside.
    19 Jun, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully the 10 to 20M shares you speak of above are long termers and not flippers.
    19 Jun, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (196) | Send Message
     
    Well one thing I think we can all agree on. If anyone wants to take up a decent position, or unexpected good news breaks then the price will soar due to lack of liquidity.
    19 Jun, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    My own perspective on the current weak demand for shares, FWIW:

     

    First, I, and I'm sure others, fell for a number of TG's strongly worded "suggestions" that Cube sales in particular were about to turn a major corner, that 2013/14 was finally the beginning of a dawn where cash burn would be reduced dramatically by Cube sales, if nothing else;

     

    IIRC,

     

    --Aug '13, Cube RFPs had ramped geometrically in 2013, 'significant sales' forecast by next cc, TG/Vani more excited by Cube prospects near term than anything else; PJM Cube 2 years data excellent; we also saw CA & NJ /mandate/ battery storage with new projects and saw the whole industry's winds starting to blow towards storage as a necessity rather than an option
    --Nov '13, "it won't be six months" (it was!) and some Cube projects "near shovel in the ground ready"; TG came across like a bunch of fruit were about ripe for the picking
    --Apr '14, more of the same -- would like to have "7 or 8" Cube deals under lock and key by the next call in 44 days (what a joke that turned out to be; for all we know there are only 7 or 8 somewhat promising RFPs in total); official news release citing fantastic economics for Cubes, even for 3rd party investors
    --May '14, we got the first million plus sale which is great; however it bothers me that there was probably arm twisting by TG to get it signed by around the time of the RS announcement -- I cannot imagine Bysolar would sign without a painless escape clause simply because their 1st Cube order had not even been hooked up yet. It's like ordering a car without a test drive and then before it even arrives you order 4 more for family members. Who would do that? So the $1.1M sale smells more than a little bit to me. Regardless, the $1.1M probably does nothing to stem the cash burn, even when it's booked in 2015.

     

    Second, IMO the RS and financing are now sinking in foremost in the minds of Axionistas. Originally hailed as a great escape from the OTC, I think now there is greater doubt and uncertainty over whether the split and uplisting will be positive or negative for the share price. Nobody knows. News or lack of news will play a major role in the pps too.

     

    Third, brokerage data feeds have caught up with all the PIPE issuances. Thus market cap as reported in feeds is now ~$35M. Axionistas buying during the PIPE at 10 or 12 cents saw a reported cap of as low as <$20M. 16 cents now looks like a 75% higher price on reported market cap basis. I think this is curbing buying appetite. (I actually sold a large chunk just before the last call at ~14 cents thinking no significant sale would be announced. Too bad as TG pulled a $1.1 million rabbit out of his hat last minute, but I thought that hat trick improbable so I feel good about that decision even though I missed the pop to $.16x.)

     

    Fourth, if Axion trades 200M new shares for $15M cash, then we get a year's runway but the market cap at 15.x cents currently would be (@425M shares) $65 million. I can buy Axion now for $35M, but knowing they will be 'dancing with the devil' in a few months for maybe $15M I am in fact essentially paying more like $55-65M now due to this axe that is poised over my head. Why not wait a few months for the axe to fall and see if the market adjusts the market cap back toward $35M? Given the RS/uplisting it's hardly farfetched. If that happens @ 425M shares I'll be able to buy shares for $.08x (multiplied by the RS factor). Of course great news could kill this plan. But if that happens I already own a big overweight in AXPW so I won't miss the big surge (surely other Axionistas are in the same boat).

     

    In sum, TG has lost more credibility, Cube sales have disappointed even though there was initial exhilaration at the first $1M sale, and the share-printing executioner will soon be raising his axe. Adding more now at $.15x doesn't look that attractive as it is basically a gamble on strong news pre RS/financing that will excite the market cap significantly upwards, or on Funds that couldn't buy on OTC buying immediately on NASDAQ enough to drive the price up.

     

    The upcoming 100-200M shares printing, issued for less than the company is worth, is a certainty. Great news inside of the next 3-4 months of a clear path to eliminating the cash burn is far from certain. So to me the sidelines look better for my extra cash at this juncture.
    19 Jun, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    I would prefer a slow steady ramp because investors find it more credible than a spike. But I'll be happy with a spike too as long as the price stabilizes at a higher level instead of falling off a cliff.
    19 Jun, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    I would prefer some real, hard, firm, cast in stone signs that the technology we've followed and pretty much agreed deserves a place in the "available solutions" isle of the energy storage shopping center finds shelf space. This before my last view of the technology is though my distorted face smudge mark on the window of a locked door. I've already got enough "missed it by that much" stories (a few of which I can tell you about how those that control assets can do as they please to pick your pockets. These being forced sales of holdings during corporate ownership changes.)

     

    I'm starting to wonder if, following the Axion story, I wasn't similar to a 13 y/o female screaming in a crowd of similar healed teens at a Beatles concert thinking I had a chance! Axion, Axion ...

     

    Disclosure: I do remain convinced that the PbC has a place. I do however now carry a small container of Windex and a paper towel.
    19 Jun, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    Among the pros the favorite "missed it by that much" stories are the deals they either rejected or exited way too soon. I was delighted when I sold J2 Communications for $5 and a quick double in 2003. The current $50 price makes my decision look pretty poor. One of my all time favorites was a former client who rejected the A-round for Compaq computers because he was certain they could never compete with Big Blue.
    19 Jun, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    I know a guy who invested $10k in a company when it started up 25 years ago as he was college roomates with the guy freshman year. They exchanged Christmas cards after college graduation and were friendly but they went different ways in college and beyond. That guys 10k investmest was in GILD and is currently worth about $2.5M the last I looked. Allowed him to retire in his mid 50's and he kept all the shares.
    20 Jun, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "... invested $10k in a company when it started up 25 years ago as he was college roomates with the guy freshman year."

     

    :-) Would have been nice to investment resources in college instead of scrambling to come up with tuition, purchase price of texts, lab fees, next month's rent, food, etc.
    20 Jun, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    Should have been more clear. He was 26 when he got the call from his friend when he was starting the company. He was a struggling college student like most of us.

     

    He's tickled pink that his friends success is allowing him to retire early. At the time giving his friend $10k was a lot of money to him so he was betting a big chunk of his net worth on his friend. It has paid off for him and his friend.

     

    20 Jun, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    dritte - for the career slam.
    18 Jun, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (859) | Send Message
     
    I would like to Believe Mr. Peterson's premise.

     

    The market is big and I have seen where stocks go down because people sell just to use their money to buy into others they think are going up. In my opinion, the base value of a company means very little in a market that is more filled with gamblers than true investors.

     

    Until Axion grabs headlines, I don't expect any major change in the share price.
    18 Jun, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    At this point all I can do is discuss similar patterns I've seen in the past in connection with work on behalf of other clients. All of my prior work in the area was after the fact analysis when clients asked the hard question, "Why has our stock been behaving so badly in spite of all the good news?," or the more fun question "Why is our stock running like a scalded cat without any significant news?" In every case the answer was the same - "A major shift in the supply and demand dynamic."

     

    I've been in student mode for the last several months because I think I'm seeing history repeat itself and this time around I want to do watch carefully as events unfold instead of waiting for somebody to ask "What just happened to my stock?"

     

    When I compare the Axion supply and demand imbalance with the imbalances I've seen in the past it's a lot like comparing a Bengal tiger with Rachel's house cat. They're different animals and there will almost certainly be different behavior patterns. In any event it will be one hell of an education for me - and anybody else who pays close attention.
    18 Jun, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (340) | Send Message
     
    John :: Seems to me that your education will vary widely (have lots of possibilities) depending on events at the company.

     

    Delivery of 500 batteries to ePower, plus delivery of another locomotive battery pack to NS, plus another 2-3 power-cube sales would give you one kind of education.

     

    Having none of those things happen over the next 4 months would give you another sort of education.

     

    I believe the first scenario is more likely than the second (I'm with Edmund on this), but the fact that both scenarios are possible in the medium term is a reasonable justification for a $30mil market cap. That's regardless of whatever Axion invested to get where they are.
    18 Jun, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    James - I could have never believed the dearth of mostly anything over the last four years.
    19 Jun, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    06/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 14, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 376829, AvTrSz: 8564
    Min. Pr: 0.1501, Max Pr: 0.1565, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1517
    # Buys, Shares: 11 80695, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1550
    # Sells, Shares: 33 296134, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1508
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.67 (21.41% "buys"), DlyShts 59356 (15.75%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 20.04%

     

    We had two “market locks” today when the ask was lowered to match the bid. It then took a few minutes for the MMs to sort it out and get the trades done to unlock the market. The first occurred at 9:38 at $0.1501 when ARCA offered below the $0.1569 offer that was best at the time, and at 14:50 when ARCA again undercut the best offer, $0.1559, with a $0.1503 offer.

     

    The 160K offer at $0.17 was present today, back into the CDEL MM's hands.

     

    VWAP continues to creep lower. Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1594, $0.1549, $0.1545, $0.1553, $0.1560, $0.1540 and $0.1517.

     

    Yesterday I said “A small bump in volume today may not be big enough to signal anything, but it's enough to cause concern, especially with ...”. Well, today volume returned and the results weren't pretty, as you can see with the above VWAP changes and still-low (but improving) buy percentage.

     

    The high for the day was set by one buy of 2.347 shares for $0.1565 at 11:07. The next lower price, $0.1560, had a sell of 10K at 10:38 and a buy of 4,924 at 12:18. Some volume did appear at the next price down, $0.1559, as four trades moved 44.2K shares.

     

    As has been the case beginning with 6/11, the highs continue to sink and seem not to have any tendency to challenge my descending resistance, currently looking like ~$0.1560.

     

    Today the oscillators I watch continued with mixed movements – RSI and ADX related are flat, very small up-ticks for momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold) and full stochastic. MFI weakened. The lower Bollinger limit continued downward to $0.1464 now, as did the upper limit, down to $0.1764. The 50-day SMA is now at $0.1552 and our close, $0.1550, and VWAP, $0.1517, are both below it. The 50-day SMA will continue to fall about 6 more days if our price range stays where it is.

     

    We had an interesting bid from ATDF of 300K (plus 7K more added later) at $0.15 that appeared at 9:38 and set there for the whole day. There were many opportunities where the ask was within a few hundredths of a penny ...

     

    All the usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1804) | Send Message
     
    Apparently AltoonaWorks on FB had been away from the area for 3 weeks, hence a lack of updates from there. For those hoping to see the NS-999 being worked on in the shop, maybe there will be reprieve soon.

     

    http://on.fb.me/1socIt8
    18 Jun, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Billion003
    , contributor
    Comments (207) | Send Message
     
    Besides actual marketing announcements (NS...PC, etc, in regard to the moribund share action, the "news" everyone wants (needs) to know is how much their present shares are going to be diluted. And this relates directly to the "pop" potential or "multi-bagger" factor of Axion stock.
    I wonder how many Axion shareholders understand understand the unknown nature of this equation.

     

    JP, is it not the case that after the reverse split and unknown size of the new issuance present shareholders could/will end up very much in the minority?
    Am I correct in understanding all of the new shares will be private placement and none will be available on the open market?
    What are your thoughts on Axion remaining an independent company over time? If after this R/S - New Issuance process the upcoming majority of shares are privately owned, and present Axionistas sidelined, is there a higher likelihood, or possibility, of the company being bought out?

     

    Sorry, folks, just trying to keep up to speed here and speculate on the unknowns. Maybe I'm missing the boat but it is this not knowing that prevents me from going much heavier and into multiple accounts with Axion stock.
    I continue to watch closely.
    18 Jun, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    TG needs to perform a very complicated maneuver here: The company needs to raise about $25 million. At $0.35 a share that is "only" a ~30% dilution. The problem is that we need to get to $0.35, and THEN pull the trigger to reverse split at the low end of the range allowed (1:20) and issue shares at a "minimum discount to market" to some big investors. Big investors buying in is like an analyst upgrade. Others will want to follow the big fish. The result is the 30% dilution could be counterbalanced by increased demand following the capital raise and we find ourselves somewhere around $7.50 a share with ~15 million shares outstanding, a ~$100 million dollar market cap, $25 million in cash, no debt, and a real blockbuster of a story about to unfold with respect to trucks, trains, and PowerCubes and OEMs joining the party late (2016). The complication comes from the fact that the present valuation isn't fair.
    18 Jun, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1804) | Send Message
     
    Easiest way would be to come out of the June meeting with NSC with an order in hand, plus another PC sale. That will get us to .35.
    18 Jun, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    Your question presumes continuation of what most have come to consider the status quo. Since I see no way that the status quo can continue I have to admit that Patrick Young's thinking is in line with my pessimistic outlook.

     

    Private placements are always uglier than comparable registered offerings because the new investors are taking a far bigger liquidity risk. If I were developing a deal structure for Axion my No. 1 goal would be getting the price to $.35 first to make a registered direct offering possible.

     

    If Axion's stock is as widely held as I believe, I don't see a takeover as even a remote possibility.
    18 Jun, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Fair?? Who says fair is not fair??
    18 Jun, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (859) | Send Message
     
    "the June meeting with NSC"
    Shouldn't that be happening any day now? Wonder if there will be any leakage of results?
    18 Jun, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    GT, here. At least you can say you saw a battery powered loco in action. Sorry as it's not green nor is it shaped like a wiener.

     

    http://bit.ly/1pgtMvq
    18 Jun, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    The question is, will the company stumble and fall or execute the scenario I suggest?

     

    I presume they will execute. This means a double from here before the RS and then the potential to double again ($15pps,$200M market cap). And again($30pps,$400M market cap). After that, valuations get harder to justify even with great news, but that's still an "8 bagger" from our current situation.

     

    Is the timing right to buy? I think so, although having the bulk of my holdings at $0.10 is a source of pride, even if it doesn't make a huge difference going forward.
    18 Jun, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    That's the sober analysis. Now for the hopium: This company should be worth $100-$250 million right now! For some reason, the market doesn't appreciate that there are no serious competitors to PbC in HRPSOC. The trading activity in early March shows that when just 10% of the outstanding shares trade hands on an upswing, the price more than doubles. Even with a reverse split, liquidity may be very hard to come by without big moves. If the "general public" begins to talk about AXPW like they began talking about PLUG, we could easily go to 4-5 times a fair valuation when the ship finally comes in, which would be the 20-50 bagger we were all hoping for. I for one would really like to dump my shares on some idiot momentum trader when the company has a $1B market cap.
    18 Jun, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    PY congrats and the dime average cost. Not sure how you can talk 400M marketcap though when TG has had a decade and has yet sold more than a few million of PbC.

     

    Even at a crazy 5x sales, Axion would need 80M in topline. Umm that would require 100% year over year growth for the rest of this decade. Then again if I had ten cent shares maybe I'd be more optimistic. Heck even at 30 cents you have a 200% winner =)
    18 Jun, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    OT but cool.

     

    Race cars go hybrid.

     

    http://bit.ly/1pg3J7H
    18 Jun, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9913) | Send Message
     
    Disclosure: A little more than an hour ago, I sold 34,000 shares out of my gamer account (11:33 AM). The reasoning for my selling are numerous and oft-stated, so there's no reason to restate them at this time.

     

    Back to watching soccer.
    18 Jun, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Maya, good thing you made a move. Otherwise our traded shares would have been comparable to the total scoring in one of them there fotbal matches.
    18 Jun, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9913) | Send Message
     
    LOL, Indy.

     

    In 2010, I was in Copan, Honduras, staying at the same Hotel Tim Enright stayed during my 12/21/12 Ending Of The World Fiesta.

     

    The hotel is owner operated by a delightful man named Udo, from Demark. Though Denmark lost to Spain in the final match in 2010, it was great fun being down there to watch the run. I love that the Netherlands plastered Spain 5-1, and now Spain has been eliminated by Chile 2-0.

     

    I wish I was down there right now! But due to scheduling delays, some work I'm having done on my home won't start until (hopefully) next week.

     

    ~Oooh~yeh~aaah!
    18 Jun, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    Maya- Denmark is not the same as the Netherlands or Dutch. The Dutch is a subsection of the Netherlands and the main city is Amsterdam.

     

    Denmark is north of Germany and capital is Copenhagen.

     

    I'm of dutch descent and people get this wrong all the time. BTW, I am estatic that Spain lost as well.
    18 Jun, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9913) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, Mr. Holty.
    18 Jun, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    No problem. The Netherlands were the ones who lost to Spain in the finals in 2010. Denmark made the World Cup but lost in the group stage.

     

    What has been funny leading up to the WC was the fact that while Netherlands played Spain last time in the final the media was all over Spain in that game. The talk was that Spain was still fine but the Netherlands were old. OOps they got it wrong.

     

    Don't feel bad for me. I made some money on that 5-1 thrashing.
    18 Jun, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    From your perspective, why is Axion suitable for a "gamer" account?

     

    Do you feel the "pulse" of this board gives you a trading edge? I assume guess traded the train leaving the station and ZRPSOD hype to flip your 10 cents shares into some profits?

     

    Should we read that your recent sell means you feel that the Axionsista army is maybe weakening some? Or maybe you think the placement might come much sooner than Summer's end?
    18 Jun, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9913) | Send Message
     
    zooooka: Right now, with volume as low as it is, it's a foolhardy mission to trade AXPW.

     

    As far as the Axionistas guard goes, I see two things happening (of course, there are more). The old guard is tired, or tiring of the never ending underperformance and under delivery by Axion management. Just read the old guard comments in just the past few days, few weeks.

     

    48th's comment was most alarming to me, as he has been steadfast positive as anyone here on the APCs for years. But what he wrote, is pretty close to what I foresee that will go down, and that includes Axion's share price following the RS. There are others of the old guard that have written disheartening stuff, and many, don't, or rarely even comment anymore.

     

    The new guard, those who are still buying, are the ones wearing the rose tinted glasses now, like I was 4 years ago. Kudos to them, and I hope they realize fantastic gains.

     

    But since 4 years ago, Axion's "story" has changed dramatically.

     

    Right after this forthcoming reverse split was announced, I wrote that TG, "MUST pull off the hat trick of a RS, the up listing and cap raise, NEATLY." I also wrote that I was considering holding zero shares of AXPW, having been thwacked as many times by cap raises as I have been, when time comes for this forthcoming hat trick.

     

    As simply as I can put it, I don't believe, because of past performance, that TG will be able to pull off the third and most key ingredient of the hat trick, and that's finding an investor, or investor group, who are willing to invest millions, when "profitable" sales positively stink. Further, he is after all, hamstrung by NDAs.

     

    Yes, there's all kinds of opportunities out there, especially California and island nations.

     

    I can not envision a scenario where the legacy shareholders are not going to be once again punished.

     

    I have read JP's fine, logical, and yet quite hopeful scenario of the hat trick; the getting out of the ghetto to attract a better class of investors, and that after AXPW gets up listed, that AXPW will have a whole new investing class that is prohibited from investing in any stock under $5.00, or $3.00.

     

    But over the years I have witnessed countless OTC pennies raise millions, and I also know that major named trading houses hold significant positions in a plethora of stocks priced under 5 bucks, and under 3 bucks, for that matter.

     

    Back in 2009, when I was aggressively doing day trading, I held short time/term positions in 100s of companies, and made well over 1600 trades that year. The commissions I paid were in excess of $7500, and each trade cost me $4.50 in my old Zecco gamer account.

     

    During that time, I learned a lot, and I did see many companies do a RS to get up listed, only to have to do another to remain listed. This coming RS is going to hammer liquidity. That scares me.

     

    So this new class of investors being only able to invest, I discount. Heck, didn't Manituak, Special Sitz, and Quercus buy in a way under 3 bucks?

     

    I also, as I have written, expect Norfolk to not have a formal unveiling for several months.

     

    Additionally, I expect the Bysolar project to be further delayed, because of the inspectors. Which for me, translates to the lack of regulations penned to protect firefighters. Just "cutting a hole in the roof" is a far more difficult, and poses far more questions than this blog realizes.

     

    Further, as I linked a few days ago, Hawaii has cut back permitting by almost 50% this year. There now are pockets in Hawaii producing so much solar electricity, that the utility company can't take on the surplus. The article was about how residential permitting was down, but how in the heck can a major installation occur, when a little bitty home can't obtain a permit?

     

    Another emerging concern is that Axion will never be involved in a big way for bulk energy storage. Bulk energy storage will most likely target diurnal battery concepts. That's something JP has repeatedly written, that bulk energy storage is not for the PbC. But the PbC could most certainly shine as a sycophant technology to large solar arrays.

     

    I agree with JP, and that the placement will not occur until summer's end. There's still plenty of time for the Axionistas to do the bumper car thingy.

     

    What I fear, is that there are some holders of AXPW that have millions of shares. What I fear is them fearing what kind of new investor will come aboard. AXPW has had terrible luck with major investors. I do hope that luck will change.

     

    So I'm leaning toward staying out of the way.

     

    Lastly, this morning while driving around, before I sold some shares today, I asked myself if I would buy more Axion? My answer was a firm no.

     

    Then I asked myself, what are the top 15 reasons why I should sell some shares.

     

    I laughed when a mental picture ballooned in my noggin; that the top five answers were all the same:

     

    1) Lack of sales
    2) Lack of sales
    3) Lack of sales
    4) Lack of sales
    5) Lack of sales

     

    For years now, it has seemed that Axion was only a year or two away from a clear path to recurring and sustainable sales. Here in June, 2014, the same applies. I do now think that there is a greater chance than ever that this pathway will occur maybe by 2016, but that's one if not two, if not three cap raises yet away, the last, maybe finally for expansion of production.

     

    I truly wish I could break out the cheerleading pompoms, but I don't even know what closet they are in anymore.

     

    Hope this helps!
    18 Jun, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I should probably join you. Would probably make a lot of people here happy.
    19 Jun, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Lol Maya, and people say I am pessimistic.
    19 Jun, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    Maya, one of your best posts yet. Very salient points concerning the Axionista army being made up of a newer and older recruits. I do agree that the "old guard" has few soldiers left. Sure some still hold their post but most don't feel the war was worth the enlistment nor winnable.

     

    And of course the newbies with average costs of 15-30 cents don't feel as disillusioned - much the same way some of us felt when we had 40-80 cent shares. But that will change if the next raise cuts pps in half as past raised seemed to do in short order.

     

    I appreciate your transparency and I find it tough to quibble with what your say. Especially the "would I buy it now" question is a tough one. Sure is hard to like a technology but not enjoy management who seem very road worn.

     

    "Sales" might be the only thing that excites the base again as ZRPSOD hardly registered after many months of anticipation. Sure NS is nice but hardly a surprise. And yes all other markets still seem years away.
    19 Jun, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    mrholty,

     

    Your story reminds me of my fourth grade teacher in Lake forest, Illinois. In 1939 she was a teacher in the Danish village where she grew up. Following the death of her husband to TB that winter she was given several valuable books by the royal family for safekeeping. Before the death of her husband became widely known and part of the public record, she quickly claimed the husband in a Jewish family as her own, the wife as her sister, and their children as her own along with her own infant daughter. She smuggled the books and Jewish family aboard a Dutch freighter and headed for the USA.

     

    After the war she returned to Denmark with the books giving them back to the proper folks. She visited her former home, etc. and returned to the USA to resume being a teacher here. She used to say that the Dutch had the most valiant boat captains during the war.

     

    Seems when the Nazis closed down Norwegian ports when it became known Norway was smuggling its gold to Britain & the US, Dutch captains took over and continued to smuggle gold to NYC in very tiny boats crossing those nasty north Atlantic waters. She used to give us a "lecture" every Friday on WWII, and northern Europe in particular. I never did understand how the Netherlands held land off South America. :>)

     

    Oh yeah. She used to read books to us Friday mornings. Her favorite and mine too? "Snow Treasure" the historical novel of Norwegian children smuggling gold out of Norway written by Marie McSwigan. I seem to recall that my teacher knew Marie from a trip to Pittsburgh for a children's book conference, but that may just be my defective memory filling in color on a beautiful story from my own childhood.

     

    She never did re-marry. She was a knockout, but raising her daughter seemed to be her only hobby aside from teaching. I saw her for the last time in 1970 when I returned to Lake Forest to thank her for being such a great teacher. She signed her copy of "Snow Treasure" and gave it to me. I miss her every day.
    19 Jun, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Microgrid sales rise alongside qualms about the power grid

     

    http://lat.ms/1sovXmg
    18 Jun, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    California Approves $415M for Behind-the-Meter Storage, Fuel Cells, Wind and Turbines

     

    http://bit.ly/1sowG6X
    18 Jun, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope where in the room when they start awarding the cash. Heck, we should be their already telling all, what our power-cube already does.

     

    Do we have a 10 year warranty or IIRC is it 7?
    18 Jun, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Masi, I don't recall any warranty terms. Based on the EP presentation I watched and posted yesterday they indicated that the lifetime was very dependent on how the storage system was utilized. This makes a ton of sense.
    18 Jun, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    ii, maybe I was thinking of...the expected battery life. I was still recouping from my surgery and heavily medicated when I listened to the CC and for some reason I thought they talked about warranting the battery. I just did a word search on the last CC and got nothing. Must have been the Rx's. :)
    18 Jun, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Masi, Hope your surgery went well. :-)

     

    East Penn did mention that they called the UB a "twenty year" battery but depending on application this would need to be adjusted. Application variables would be consistent with other LAB's. This would be true of the PbC battery as well IMO.

     

    Edit: BTW, sometimes when I listen to the cc's and read the transcripts I wish I was medicated!
    18 Jun, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    I just busted out laughing at your last line. thnx.
    18 Jun, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    The battery type.

     

    Furukawa : The official signing ceremony of technical cooperation agreement with Furukawa Battery

     

    "Furukawa battery authorizes Sacred Sun battery to produce its patent FCP series, characterized as technically leading internationally, large capacity, deep cycle, super long life lead carbon technology energy storing battery series, in Sacred Sun's factory located in Qufu, Shandong. The products made by Sacred Sun battery will be promoted and sold in fast growing renewable energy and telecom stationary power market. Both parties will share the same products code in both countries and international markets."

     

    http://bit.ly/1lDtbV0

     

    Furukawa FCP series

     

    http://bit.ly/1lDtejw
    18 Jun, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (479) | Send Message
     
    ii, after reading the article from the first link, the first thing that came to my mind was, WOW, it looks like they could have taken that from one of our pro-mos. The power points are just about identical.
    18 Jun, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Masi, Yep. But it heavily depends on application.
    18 Jun, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Another shot at bi-polar labs. Link to podcast at the bottom. Stuff posted on this before.

     

    Chris Beekhuis of Gridtential on grid-level energy storage (Podcast)

     

    http://bit.ly/1ib2NmA

     

    Their home site. Much of the content is protected.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ib2NmC
    18 Jun, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Here is the PSU doctoral thesis for modeling the PbC battery. Only the abstract w/ a link for those that wish to dig deeper. 39 USD for the unbound copy. Looks like work was done to model the Ultrabattery as well.

     

    Modeling and analysis of lead-acid batteries with hybrid lead and carbon negative electrodes

     

    http://bit.ly/1jzOP8y

     

    Edit: Oopsey. If you search for the title provided there is an open access pdf file on the net of the entire paper for free.
    18 Jun, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    Interesting find Indy,

     

    Google search on the author shows that n addition to his job at psu he is the CTO of EC Power.

     

    http://ecpowergroup.com
    18 Jun, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    Twas a stiff read; hopefully the engineers in here give it a gander and cliff note any insights.

     

    http://bit.ly/Pf0RuV
    19 Jun, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    There is a lot of very good info in the Gou dissertation. I had read it probably six months ago, now.

     

    In reading his material, the biggest issue for the PbC was hydrogen gassing, but, from the success so far that ePower, et al, are having with the PbC, that seems to be not so much of a problem in actual use. Just so that everyone is aware, hydrogen gas production is an issue in all lead acid batteries or lead based battery varieties. It can be, and is, controlled by keeping the battery's operating voltage below the threshold at which the H2 hydrogen evolution reaction presents a serious problem within the battery.

     

    His dissertation points out issues that exist with the UltraBattery, as well. One issue that his computer model found was a problem with overpotential within the UB. Such overpotential will result in the UB generating heat. A second issue is with the discharge profile: under a constant discharge draw, his model indicates that the UB will discharge in the same manner as any other battery using a carbonaceous additive or paste, that is to say, the lead portion will charge and discharge first, and only then will the additive or paste come into play. So, assuming that to be the case, for optimal performance, the UB requires a BMS that discharges the UB with a non-constant draw. Under a constant discharge profile, the additive or paste, as the case may be, is left with very little to do. Anyone that has a vehicle with AGM stop/start with a carbon additive or paste (BMW, Ford C-Max, etc.) can use this info to understand why their car's stop/start capabilities deteriorate after a short while.

     

    It is worth noting that there is a variation between this dissertation material's exploration and description of the UltraBattery's functional behaviour and that given by Ed Buiel on the UltraBattery.
    19 Jun, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    I'll have to read this tomorrow. 393, I know we have discussed different things, but can't remember f you gave me your background. What was it again?
    19 Jun, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    -->> Stefan

     

    The Gou material is a reading that does require one's extra concentration.

     

    My background is in software programming and some post secondary in criminology. The crim education has proved invaluable for doing legal research. Two indespensable benefits that learning some law gives one are first, you learn how to "read" a situation. By that I mean that if one is given enough info on a situation, if you know the law that applies, then you can take a fairly good and educated guess as to what actually transpired in that situation. The second benefit is that you learn how to resolve ambiguities, and resolve them quickly.
    19 Jun, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    What was the variation in the UB behavior? Was Buiel also speaking hypothetically or was it from documentable real world testing?

     

    I often see the UB mentioned on this board as a threat but other knowledgeable people dismiss it as not in Axion's class.
    19 Jun, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    -->> Bazooooka

     

    The variation between the two is that Ed Buiel's comments covered the way the UB behaves under discharge with a constant discharge. According to Gou's dissertation, if the UB is discharged with a non constant draw, then both the lead negative electrode and the carbon negative electrode will share in the discharge, with the result that the lead negative electrode is not doing all the work. With the lead negative electrode doing only roughly half of the work under discharge, that electrode will be that much less vulnerable to hard sulfation.

     

    It has to be remembered that the UB, in its current form, has three electrodes; one positive and two negatives, with one of those negatives being lead and the other negative being carbonaceous material.

     

    I say in its current form, because IIRC, the patent allows for an UltraBattery to have only one positive electrode and one negative with carbon additive or paste.
    19 Jun, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    I see. I would be nice to have Ed visit this board again to help ease investor fears about the UB eating Axionistas' lunch. More and more I'm hearing such things although it seems based on PR not a better battery. Then again, there are others who say Axion isn't in the race anyhow because their scale is too small.
    19 Jun, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    -->> Bazooooka
    When Ed Buiel posted his last post, he said that if anyone wanted to e-mail him, then they could, but, he has gone on to other pastures, now, so he might not have much time for PbC or UB questions.

     

    When I read the Gou material, that was the first that I had heard about the UB having more than one discharge profile.

     

    Regarding Axion and production at scale, I recall reading, probably a year ago, that someone at Ford said in an interview that Ford knew about the Axion PbC, but that they did not go with the PbC because Axion could not produce at scale. It would seem, then, that Ford had done some home work on the PbC, because, how else would they know whether or not Axion could produce at scale?
    19 Jun, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I have skimmed the Gou paper for this or that particular detail any number of times since it became available over a year ago. It is not just a "stiff read" - it is a 200-page study report commissioned by Norfolk Southern and nurtured by "Mr. Barbee Gibson", chuckle, himself. The fellow who did the work was a professional student (4-yr BS, 4-yr MS, both in CHina, and 5-yr PhD) who worked in relevant laboratory work. I intend no disrespect whatsoever; quite the opposite, in fact. The report is more than worthy of the effort it takes to muck through the English as written by one to whom it is a second language. I don't agree with all of it. Neither I think would the Russians behind Axion's AEDLC.

     

    Here is the conclusion in its entirety:
    "This work focused on understanding new features of hybrid batteries-PbC and UltrBatteries [sic] and studying the influence of design and operational factors under various working conditions in terms of performance and lifetime. Five major contributions can be summarized as follows. First, a mathematical PbC battery model was developed for the first time and provided the understanding of internal physical processes and external performance behaviors of PbC batteries. Second, a design tool for comparing and selecting desirable carbon materials for PbC batteries was delivered. Third, the gassing phenomena under galvanostatic or cycling operations were intensively analyzed and the effect of gassing on electrochemical performance and thermal behaviors of PbC batteries was demonstrated, identifying the proper approaches to suppressing gassing behaviors and improving charge efficiencies. Fourth, a mathematical model for UltraBatteries was developed which provided the understanding of the internal dynamics of current partition during cycling. Finally, the influences of negative plate design and operational factors on both power and energy performance of UltraBatteries were evaluated and the results offered insights into maximizing the current shared by the capacitor cells of hybrid batteries under high-rate cycling in order to further extend the cycle life."

     

    It is my belief that Barbee was looking to make certain that the PbC was a better choice than the "is it good enough?" UB. I think he got his answer.

     

    There is a lot of information (and commentary) on gassing as well as capacity issues. The latter we are aware of as a "weakness" of a supercabattery such as the PbC when compared to a battery like the UB. But is the fact that an orange is nowhere near as red as an apple a "weakness"?

     

    The importance of gassing is a matter of debate. From the very earliest patents, the fact that the EDLC could be sealed was considered worthy of mention by the Russians. Feel free to work this all out on your own; here's "pishcha dlya razmyshleniya": from http://bit.ly/1uHgNVb "Method of formation and charge of the negative polarizable carbon electrode in an electric double layer capacitor"
    US 6706079 B1
    SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
    Contrary to other studies in this field, we ascertained that hydrogen evolution on carbonaceous materials occurs only at very negative potentials. Depending on the carbonaceous material, the hydrogen evolution reaches noticeable rate at potentials more negative than the range of −0.25 to −1.2 V vs. RHE that is typical for most of the carbons. We succeeded to advance to such negative potentials owing to the use of special current collectors made of graphite, which has high hydrogen-evolution overpotential. As for other scientists, they use platinum current collectors as a rule (see e.g., N. A. Urisson, G. V. Steinberg, M. R. Tarasevich, N. M. Zagudayeva, Soviet Electrochemistry, 19 (1983) 275). The hydrogen-evolution overpotential on platinum is close to zero, therefore at E<0 V hydrogen evolution occurs. Thus, the electrochemical properties of carbonaceous electrodes were previously studied only at E>0 V. We proved experimentally that polarizable electrodes made of different types of activated carbon have very high values of hydrogen-evolution overpotentials (in the range of −0.25 to −1.2 V vs. RHE). **Other scientists mistakenly took the substantial increase of the current on the voltammograms during cathode charging of carbonaceous materials for hydrogen evolution process. According to our data, this increase of current is caused by formation of surface compounds due to the reduction of the different groups existing on the carbon surface.** This results from the fact that the shift of the potential towards negative values (which takes place during charge of the negative polarizable electrode of the EDL capacitor) brings about a maximum of the current instead of unlimited increase, i.e., a slump follows the rise. This is illustrated on FIG. 1 by curve 1, obtained between −0.8 and +1.0 V vs. RHE at a scan rate of 1 mV/s. The electrode used was a TSA-type activated carbon cloth. The corresponding voltammogram 2 for the same electrode measured in the usual range from 0 to +1 V is provided as well. It can be seen that the area under curve 1 is three times the area under curve 2. Since the area is proportional to the capacitance, it follows that the proposed method leads to substantial increase in the capacitance of the electrodes.

     

    The object of the present invention is to develop an EDL capacitor, employing an aqueous electrolyte, with improved specific energy. Another object of the present invention is to ensure the hermeticity of said capacitor. These objects are achieved by a method of electrochemical pretreatment, i.e., formation and charge of the negative polarizable electrode, which is described below. In accordance with the present invention, the negative polarizable electrode is set at certain potential prior to operation, whereas the minimum potential value is within the range of −0.25 to −1.2 V vs. hydrogen electrode in the same solution. Thus, the useable potential range for said electrode is substantially widened (up to twice and more), since the limiting maximum value is kept at +1.2 V vs. RHE as in study H. Shi, Electrochimica Acta, 41 (1996) 1633. Increase of the working potential range results in augmented capacity of the carbonaceous material in C/g or in Ah/g. **According to the proposed method of formation, the evolution of gases (hydrogen and oxygen) at the electrodes comes to an end during the formation process and on subsequent operation of the capacitor practically no noticeable gas evolution takes place.** As a result, total hermeticity of the capacitors can be provided.

     

    Formation of activated carbon electrodes according to the proposed invention leads to two- to fivefold increase of the capacity of said electrodes. Formation according to the proposed invention results in completely sealed capacitor as well.
    19 Jun, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    If you don't understand the activation of activated carbon (a KEY piece of Axion IP), you will not understand the PbC's performance. This is precisely what is giving my erstwhile "teacher", PbC Believer, such difficulty (along with the apples vs orange thing).

     

    TGIT. ;)
    19 Jun, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Note that the publication of this work (Dec 2012) coincides quite closely with the order Barbee placed for PbCs, not UBs, at the end of 2012.
    19 Jun, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    393 - The UB does not have more than one discharge profile. You may be referring to the empirical and/or computer-modeled data presented in the "design ratio" section. This is extremely interesting section; note that the PbC has an alpha of 0, meaning the width (proxy for volume) of the lead-based negative electrode is zero. The closest "UB" split-electrode "hybrid" he works with has an alpha of 0.1, meaning the lead negative is 10% and the carbon negative is 90%. The UB is identified as having either "equal" (i.e., alpha = 0.5 or 50% lead) or alpha = 0.7, but the precise value is elsewhere stated as being proprietary information.
    19 Jun, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    Bravo Edmund! Question: My understanding has always been that the UB is unable to accept the same charge as PbC. I couldn't find anything definitive on that point in the paper. Thoughts?
    19 Jun, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, the following is from the Introduction:
    "From all the above studies, it can be confirmed that the failure mode of VRLA batteries under HRPSOC (HR = high rate) cycling is accumulative sulfation in the negative electrodes.
    This is due to two [sic, he goes on to give three - and it's the third that is perhaps most relevant to your DCA query] aspects.
    First, the batteries working under PSOC always have some portion of lead sulfate standby that could re-crystallize into hard sulfation and be difficult to recover[6].
    Second, high-rate discharge produces a thin layer of lead sulfate that hinders further discharge[1]. This layer will grow progressively and thus lead to hard sulfation.
    Third, high-rate charge increases the mass transport overpotential {read non-equilibrium, if that helps} of the primary reactions {Pb to PbSO4 and PbO2 to PbSO4}, [which then results] in higher potential for the positive electrode and lower potential for the negative potential, which favors both oxygen and hydrogen gassing processes. The gassing parasitic currents share the total charging current, so the battery will be left insufficiently charged. **The factor that emphasizes the effect of HRPSOC cycling on the negative electrode [rather] than the positive electrode is primarily the different specific surface area of both electrodes. The lead electrode usually has substantially less surface area than the lead dioxide electrode, so to draw the same current from the two electrodes, the negative electrode [will] have a higher overpotential. At lower or [moderate] rates, this does not make much difference in charging the electrodes. *But with higher rates* the mass transport limitation is high, the difference in overpotential will be exaggerated and thus the negative overpotential grows faster than that in the positive electrode. **The gassing side reactions in the negative electrode become severe first and prevent effective charging.**

     

    "Effective charging" might also be read as "stable and high charge acceptance" as these processes all speak mainly to degradation over time, times which may be even as short as a single cycle, however.

     

    Of course there is another contribution to the PbC high DCA that is more important right out of the box and that would be the fact that the carbon electrode is not storing energy in the same manner as a typical negative lead electrode and thus does not depend on relatively slow chemical reactions. Very slow, like snail vs cheetah slow. I suspect the very worst PbC supercabattery, having half the dependence on chemical reactions, would have twice the DCA of an LAB, and be able to keep it up, but that's intuition not data.
    The paper is more about battery design than electrochemistry and supercapacitor fundamentals. There are probably other places where he digs further into this or maybe just drops other relevant details, but I haven't read the whole paper. That would take quite awhile. I just thought I'd throw out a few comments while the topic is being discussed.
    19 Jun, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, for clarification, you mean rate correct?
    19 Jun, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    EM,

     

    Thank you a ton. Guys like you and 393 do the much needed heavy chewing for the rest of us =)
    19 Jun, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Amps. Current in. How many electrons per second the system can accept (at various PSOCs) without damaging the hardware.

     

    A 12 Volt battery charging at 250 Amps is 3KW of power or 4 horsepower. Therefore, 52 batteries = 200 hp (ePower truck) and 800 batteries = 3200 hp (NS 999).

     

    The question is, does the UB crap out under high charging loads like conventional LABs? Seems like NSC and ePower and BySolar recognize the PbC is a superior tech, because they chose us over UB.
    19 Jun, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    -->> Edmund

     

    Thanks for the great digging on the patent stuff, and, you are correct in saying that the method chosen to activate the carbon is a very important factor in the resulting performance.

     

    The design ratio info on the UB and its connection to the matter of active material utilization is quite informative.

     

    On the discharge profile issue for the UB, probably what I was thinking of is that the UB has a particular profile under constant charge, so a BMS could most likely be designed to discharge the UB in a non-constant manner, which would result in a second discharge profile.

     

    However, such a BMS could get rather complicated, as customized and extremely short term charges might have to be built in to the system, and these extremely short charges would have to be considered as very short interruptions of the discharge cycle.

     

    Making changes to the C rate under discharge could also be built into the BMS in order to aim for a non-constant discharge cycle. If there is separate access to each of the negative electrodes in the UB, then a more sophisticated BMS could be built that could charge and discharge each of the negatives individually. Doing these individual charges and recharges could be a way to achieve the needed variations in the potentials between the two negative electrodes, which would cause the carbon negative electrode to participate to a much greater degree in the discharge cycle, and thereby providing more power from the UB on discharge.

     

    But, from the DCA recharge info that I found some time ago on the Furukawa UB (based on the EUCAR protocol), it takes over 6 minutes for that UB to recharge from a 90% SOC to a 96% SOC and over 5 minutes to recharge from a 95% SOC to a 98% SOC. That being the case, interrupting the discharge in order to do an extremely short recharge would result in time being taken away from the discharge in order to do a very short recharge. This could lead to the BMS "chasing" a non-constant discharge cycle as valuable discharge time is then lost. Such chasing would mean a performance hit to the downside.

     

    So, having said all this, I would agree that your description of only one existing discharge profile for the UB would be more accurate.

     

    What is interesting is that Gou finds that under a constant discharge, the UB's capacitor cell discharges at the beginning and at the end of the discharge cycle, with the battery cell discharging in between the start and the end. Again, this is different from what I understood Ed Buiel to be describing. Who knows, but it may be that changes have been made to the UB since Ed Buiel's team looked at the UB. They could have been testing a different format or variety of the UB.
    20 Jun, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    -->> Bazooooka

     

    Thanks for the vote and I am glad that others can find some of this complicated info to be useful.
    20 Jun, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I would like to read any technical report by Ed Buiel, not just UB-related. I would much appreciate any links.
    20 Jun, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    Go to the concentrator header under miscellaneous.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. I was there earlier and didn't find much technical. I see a total of 10 posts from ebuiel from Dec 2012 to Jan 2013. I clicked the ALL button. If that is "ALL", I guess I'm looking for something more.

     

    393, Is there more info behind your statement below than what I am seeing from the Yahoo posts?
    "Again, this is different from what I understood Ed Buiel to be describing."
    20 Jun, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4610) | Send Message
     
    My understanding of what Dr. Buiel said was the weakness of the UB was the dual material electrode. The lead part reacts quicker than the carbon, making the carbon useless until the Pb reaction was drawn down to a certain point. Is this wrong?
    20 Jun, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, Dr. Buiel also said something about the two materials (Pb, C) having different voltage preferences (?), something that was also mentioned in the Norfolk Southern-FRA FOIA materials.
    20 Jun, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    It would be ridiculous for me to say "this is wrong".

     

    On discharge:
    If the UB begins fully charged, both the capacitor and the lead negative electrodes at 100% SOC, the capacitor will dump its high voltage component first. This is not much capacity before it is at the voltage where the lead electrode would quickly take over the vast majority of the duty, swamping contributions (which would continue) from the capacitor. The voltage would drop very slowly, the electrolyte would be diluted, and at some point the lead negative would have little left to give and the lower voltage components of the capacitor would contribute the bulk of any current.

     

    SO that's pretty much what Dr. Buiel says.

     

    On charging, assuming the UB is at a low initial SOC, the reverse would occur.

     

    So where's the "weakness"?

     

    Here's my take: Anytime the device is in the voltage range of the typical LAB operational window, the device is an LAB with the same problems of degradation during (1) PSOC ops and (2) high rate of charging - separate problems which exacerbate each other in HRPSOC apps. The lead electrode will dominate the current until it gets sulfated. The carbon may capture a portion of the high rate and ameliorate the problem (increasing # of cycles before death), but the problem remains essentially unchanged.

     

    Worse still, the concave down increasing property of the PbC AC electrode, all-important to string equalization, will likely be wiped flat by the presence of the high capacity lead electrode; that is, until the lead electrode fails and you're dragging around a crusty negative electrode and a half-size PbC carbon electrode.

     

    I don't think the carbon is rendered useless because it would remain active throughout the voltage range of the lead, so I might disagree on that point, but I strongly suspect this is a matter of semantics. The presence of the lead electrode certainly "spoils the beauty" of the PbC. It would likely be marginally helpful just as any carbon additives are helpful, but you don't have a supercabattery anymore.

     

    And from the last angle, if you are going to operate below the useful voltage of the lead electrode, where the activated carbon electrode still has energy, then why the heck carry the lead around?

     

    The "hybrid" UB chaps my ass; IMO, it is a marketing gimmick, but it could become much worse. Already this Gou paper instructs on "ultrabatteries" made with 90% carbon and 10% lead split "hybrid" electrodes. Why not 99%? I've made this point before. I believe what we have here is a patent fight in the making. That's why I see the EP - UB collaboration as unfavorable. There is nothing to prevent the 99.9% UB.
    20 Jun, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4610) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... Thanks.

     

    That explanation leaves me with the idea that if the UB were to be involved in a high cycle rate input/output application, like NS999 or ePower or even auto regen braking, that the thermal runaway on the Pb part of the electrode would lead to slagging it. Just like the other LABs & AGMs did for ePower & NS999 v1.0.
    20 Jun, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    hmmmm - I am truly amazed at the peak amps John is reporting at ePower and NS suggests in their patent. This seems to me to require more than just capable electrodes. I would need more data and some personal experience to understand the problem.

     

    Perhaps John can take a few pictures and/or provide detailed description of the "slagged" LABs ePower has laying around. What happened to them? Cases toasted? Terminals melted? Innards now outtards? Boiled dry? All of the above? What happened first?

     

    I think any battery handling 100-250 Amps in and out would have to be one heckuva well-made battery in every respect. I respect such a battery. Would love to do some destructive testing - I'd give it a proper burial, too: I'd recycle it.
    20 Jun, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Ed,

     

    IIRC, the terminals were melted.
    20 Jun, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    The most common problem was melted terminals. While I'd love to be able to provide pictures, the Fire Marshall strongly suggested that damaged batteries needed to be sent for recycling if we didn't want to risk a citation.
    20 Jun, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4610) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... Long ago (no link for lack of time but you can use Bangwhiz's search function) there were murmurs from NSC that Axion's PbC could withstand momentary 400 Amps.
    20 Jun, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    If that was the only outward evidence then I would have to open it up to see it there were any other clues inside; a melted terminal could be caused by internal malfunctions, I imagine. I don't have enough experience. Is there such a thing as a poorly-made (improperly alloyed?) terminal? Certainly poorly-connected terminals can melt, but I find it hard to believe that would be the sole cause as connecting terminals is pretty basic. If the terminals constantly run hot and cool, the connection can degrade. I've seen that in a number of similar applications. Used to be far more common to have to open the hood and clean the terminals.
    20 Jun, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Outside of the most common terminal melts, did you see other meltdowns that might have been exposing the root of the problem internally? Like melted or swollen cases?
    20 Jun, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    There were a couple of more serious melt downs, but I haven't seen them.
    20 Jun, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (340) | Send Message
     
    Edmund said :: 'Already this Gou paper instructs on "ultrabatteries" made with 90% carbon and 10% lead split "hybrid" electrodes. Why not 99%? I've made this point before. I believe what we have here is a patent fight in the making.'

     

    Seems to me a while back John was talking about all the R+D that went into PbC. The capacitance carbon was only the start. Below that was a series of layers which were required to stop corrosion from the acid bath, allow current flow without transfer of protons (if I Recall Correct..). All of that was then either a matter of trade secrecy or patents.

     

    What you seem to be saying is the Ultrabattery essentially copied or found work-arounds to all of that, and now has a negative electrode as good as PbC. The only difference between them and PbC is the existence of a lead electrode on the ultrabattery of varying size - possibly down to a vanishingly small size. Do I have that right?

     

    In that case, where is the IP for the PbC? Is it now just a matter of marketing and price?
    20 Jun, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Hi JB,
    It might help to review what EB said about the UB. Running off of memory (scary I know), the UB electrode has a lead electrode with a carbon paste like additive on part of the electrode. This is quite different from the Axion electrode and that the charge/discharge characteristics were different.
    20 Jun, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3447) | Send Message
     
    I remember a while back a bit of discussion regarding the melted terminals, IIRC I believe Rick K. offered an alternate opinion/theory that the melting may have been caused by imperfect connections at the terminals...

     

    20 Jun, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    JamesBBecker:
    re': "Below that was a series of layers which were required to stop corrosion from the acid bath, allow current flow without transfer of protons (if I Recall Correct..)."

     

    The PbC has such a layer. It serves essentially to purify the PbC's behavior as a supercabattery by preventing the current collector from being an electrode itself.

     

    The PbC has a conductive graphite-impregnated paraffin+rosin (P+R) layer coating the current collector to which the activated carbon is applied. I have found nothing so far on what the P+R layer is in any patent I have perused, so that remains an Axion trade secret. But CSIRO couldn't care less since they already and willingly have exposed lead (sponge) as part of their composite, split or "hybrid" electrode. In effect they seem satisfied aiming for a better or "good enough" LAB.
    Interestingly, the UB patent claims include the possibility to split BOTH positive and negative electrodes into part "battery" and part "capacitor". That's a change from their earlier patent. It also claims the ability to make a sandwich of positive and negative electrodes in which the individual slices can alternate between being purely lead(neg.), purely lead oxide (pos.), purely carbon(neg.) [which would be a PbC imitator negative electrode], purely carbon(pos.), said slices in any order (obviously alternating polarity) and also for each slice to be of almost any mixed composition of carbon/lead or carbon/PbO2. The patent gives a couple of mixed pure-slice examples.

     

    The current configuration of the UB, if the figure that we are all familiar with is representative, is apparently a positive electrode of PbO2 and a "hybrid" or split negative electrode wherein the split is the vicinity of 30-50% carbon electrode (PbC imitator) and 70-50% lead electrode. But that figure may be only an abstraction.

     

    Here are the two relevant patents:
    http://bit.ly/1pR3PX6
    http://bit.ly/1pR3P9B
    Priority date 18SEP2003, pub 31JUL2012

     

    Claim 1 in part:
    A hybrid battery-capacitor comprising:
    at least one battery-type positive electrode,

     

    at least one battery-type negative electrode,

     

    at least one capacitor-type electrode selected from a capacitor negative electrode and a capacitor positive electrode,

     

    {another claim I don't like: The hybrid battery-capacitor of claim 6, wherein the additive is present in a coating on the capacitor negative electrode in an amount that increases the voltage window of the capacitor negative electrode to at least −1.2 V}

     

    My take on the EP/Ecoult UBER-installation report is that the current UB cell design seems to be struggling with the issues that would be expected from typical lead-acid batteries, though they claim a 4X lifetime under the tested conditions. Condition that could be tailored quite easily to maximize that number. Push it with a few "inappropriate" discharges and/or charges and it might slag just like the rest do.

     

    The present Ultrabattery, AFAICT, appears to be more similar to a carbon-additive AGM LAB than a supercabattery PbC. By design. They seem to want a "good-enough" longer-lasting LAB, not a supercabattery, and have added the activated carbon-based electrode more as a glorified carbon additive than anything else. All while marketing it as a "hybrid" between an super-LAB and a PbC supercabattery, like "Yeah, I know, I'm apple, but I'm also orange".

     

    HERE'S MY PROBLEM (where's my G&T?): I don't see (not a patent lawyer) what would prevent them from moving very much further in the direction of a PbC than they are now. That's what I meant by saying they could make a 99% carbon/1% lead negative electrode, essentially becoming a PbC. May not have the trade secrets, the secret carbon activation sauces, the isolating rosin, but given time....

     

    Since noone seems to think Axion can or will fight, it really doesn't matter if there is a justifiable reason to fight - in other words, it really doesn't matter if I am wrong about whether the CSIRO patent can be interpreted as I suggest.

     

    Which forms my answer to your question: "The only difference between them and PbC is the existence of a lead electrode on the Ultrabattery of varying size - possibly down to a vanishingly small size. Do I have that right?

     

    I believe so, but I'm a chemist.
    20 Jun, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed:
    re': "the UB electrode has a lead electrode with a carbon paste like additive on part of the electrode."

     

    The carbon paste you speak of is composed of graphite, carbon black and activated carbon. This is pretty much what the PbC electrode is made of, minus the secret sauces etc (which themselves are undoubtedly the result of many bright minds working long days doing extensive iterative and evolutionary testing during development - which can form quite the moat).

     

    The strength of the PbC is that it is not an LAB at all. Not even 1%. It is a pure supercabattery. Any exposed lead (or any metal) part of the negative electrode current collector will begin to trash the performance. I would guess it would be quite difficult to maintain the integrity of a partial carbon paint job. I would expect the edges or boundaries would be susceptible to corrosion. I imagine the UB employs separately prepared negative electrodes (one Pb, one Carbon) in parallel, not a single current collector with a partial-painted surface. Just a guess.
    20 Jun, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    If the PbC can handle the loads and deliver the power that an application requires, it will be the most stable and most simple solution when compared to any pretender "hybrid" device like the UB that tries to add back capacity by adding back just a little bit less of what failed to begin with.

     

    NS tried a pure LAB and it was epic fail. A bit of carbon dust is not what NS wants. They want the Full Monty, the Holy Grail of the Rail. At least that's my take. Capacity issues can be handled by waystations and the like; waystations beat the heck out of repair stations.
    20 Jun, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2384) | Send Message
     
    Edmund , responding to "melted terminals could be caused by internal malfunctions":

     

    Absolutely, yes. Melted terminals have nothing to do with electrode design. Poor design and poor manufacturing cause overheating problems. Most problematic is poor power control, ie, charging at too high a voltage.
    20 Jun, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "Here is the PSU doctoral thesis for modeling the PbC battery. "

     

    WONDERFUL find, iinde! Thx!
    18 Jun, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2431) | Send Message
     
    For what it's worth, my Altoona source believes NS-999 has NOT been painted yet.

     

    Frequently painting is the very last thing that happens, and often a pic appears of the newly painted unit outside. But this doesn't seem to be a normal situation.

     

    It's been suggested here that the batteries wouldn't be added till after the painting. I don't know if that's true, but IF it is, it's certainly not rolling out tomorrow. Before long we may be happy if we see it rolling before the end of the month (as generally predicted on the Altoonaworks Facebook page a while back)

     

    Hard to get beat "betting the over" w.r.t. AXPW timelines ...

     

    Here's a previously posted video of a very special (the most? complicated and unusual) NSC locomotive being painted (time lapse of an 112 hour job.) Don't believe NS-999 will take that long, but with all those racks, it will be something different for them ... and who knows how much of the original look (which many liked) will be retained.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jA3DDZ

     

    :-(

     

    BTW, I had to edit a "BS-999" reference ...

     

    almost left it in ...
    19 Jun, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    I got confirmation from NS that the NS999 will be evaluated in an operating environment in august, so that's good news!
    19 Jun, 04:09 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    wtb and axion: much appreciated digging!
    19 Jun, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    axion-nl -

     

    What does I got confirmation from NS mean? We have had many confirmations on this project.
    19 Jun, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    wrt painting before or after: Seems reasonable to save the time and materials until they after they proved to themselves it wasn't just going to go up in smoke.
    19 Jun, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    I found a project list for solar installations in New Jersey, and BySolar has done, as may seem obvious, a number of residential solar installations in the NJ area, and some commercial installations, as well.

     

    Some of the company names for which BySolar has done commercial installations are as follows:

     

    1) RSI BANK;
    2) THE REGNAC GROUP, LLC;
    3) MORRIS 400 LLC;
    4) ELMER DICKERSON & SONS INC.;
    5) SGA INVESTMENTS LLC;
    6) GROUND BREAK REALTY LLC;

     

    One residential installation was done for 458-464 GLEBE STREET LLC.

     

    In NJ, as of April 30, 2014, out of all solar installation projects, 80.80% were behind the meter installations, and the remaining 19.2% were grid supply.

     

    Behind the meter installations totalled 27,751 projects, and an installed capacity of 1,027,961.60 KW(dc). Grid supply capacity was 244,958.80 KW(dc) over 115 projects.

     

    Going by market segment, in the commercial market segment in NJ, as of April 30, 2014, there have been 3,360 solar installation projects, with an installed capacity of 883,783.50 KW(dc), for 69.40% of all installed solar capacity. For the residential market segment in NJ, as of April 30, 2014, there have been 23,292 solar installation projects, with an installed capacity of 188,497.40 KW(dc), for 14.80% of all installed solar capacity.

     

    The remaining capacity was installed in other market segments, which included, Government, schools, non-profit,
    Municipality, farms, universities, and SUNLIT - the NJ solar installation financing program for affordable housing
    developments.
    19 Jun, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2431) | Send Message
     
    In one of those 10 year tax free zones the state of New York is constantly advertising? And no doubt a big, complex issue around import tariffs.

     

    SolarCity Buys Silevo for $200 Million, Plans GW Factory in NY

     

    Meg Cichon

     

    http://bit.ly/1uFE4qj

     

    "In an effort to further streamline its solar business and lower the overall cost of solar energy, SolarCity (SCTY) announced today that it would acquire high-efficiency cell manufacturer Silevo for $200 million. In an effort to scale up the technology, SolarCity plans to construct a 1-GW manufacturing facility located in Buffalo, New York within the next two years.

     

    ...

     

    Rive explained some of the advantages of higher efficiencies with a common residential rooftop system comparison: “Consider a typical 6-kW system with standard efficiency panels and then picture that same system with 24 percent efficiency tri-cell,” he said. “Currently the system requires 24 panels, but the triex-module will require 18 panels. So it requires less labor, less mounting, less wiring, and so on.”

     

    ...

     

    SolarCity is currently in discussions with the state of New York for its manufacturing facility. According to Rive, its initial target capacity is 1 GW within the next two years, making it one of the single largest solar panel productions in the world, creating thousands of local jobs. Groundbreaking is expected to happen very soon, according to Musk. Silevo currently has a 32-MW factory in China.

     

    When comparing the relative costs of domestic vs overseas manufacturing, said Rive, “we believe that at scale we can achieve a competitive cost domestically as a result of having lower energy costs, avoiding import tariffs, a highly automated manufacturing facility and the fact that the triex cell has less labor content per module due to higher efficiency.”"
    19 Jun, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Yes, Buffalo is an old rust belt city with tons of NY incentives to be had. Also next to Niagara Falls which has huge hydro power. The savings from this used to be shared with all NY residents but that was stripped off a few years back and they use the low cost power to entice industry. Get low cost power and a free green badge! Also near Canada, which also has tons of low cost hydro as well. They share the hydro rites w/ the US from Niagara falls via treaty.

     

    BTW, For processes that need tons of water this region is gifted with fresh water resources coming out of our ears. Glass mfg being one.

     

    Oh, low cost shipping via the Great Lakes system as well. Cheaper than rail but this depends on the value of the goods, this meaning the need for speed can offset some of this advantage.
    19 Jun, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Update on SEPTA line:

     

    http://bit.ly/1uFMaPU
    19 Jun, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1uFMI8g

     

    Enersys expansion near Philly.

     

    "The company is aiming to expand its revenue from $2.5 billion to $4 billion in 2018."
    19 Jun, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Supreme Court is going to make an interesting ruling in securities class action suits soon:

     

    http://cnb.cx/1ynDfY4

     

    Wonder which way it will go.

     

    John, I know you generally find these class actions problematic b/c investors don't get much back. Curious if you have an opinion on a better way to police corporations.
    19 Jun, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    I've been very fortunate over the years and haven't had to deal with any substantive enforcement issues for over 20 years. That lack of experience with problems leaves me in a poor position to express opinions on "a better way." Sometimes it's really a blessing to feel ignorant on a particular topic.
    19 Jun, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    06/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 8, MinTrSz: 645, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol: 85290, AvTrSz: 10661
    Min. Pr: 0.1520, Max Pr: 0.1549, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1535
    # Buys, Shares: 4 46290, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1545
    # Sells, Shares: 4 39000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1523
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.19:1 (54.27% "buys"), DlyShts 45000 (52.76%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 115.38%

     

    The 160K offer at $0.17 was again present today, remaining in CDEL MM's hands.

     

    VWAP continues to creep lower. Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1594, $0.1549 ...

     

    Well, apparently yesterday's volume bump was a seller that really wanted out because the sell percentage was 78.6% on 376.83K and today sell percent was 45.7% on 85.29K.

     

    As has been common, the high of the day is set early on very small trades. Today it was two trades of 645 shares ...

     

    The interesting bid from ATDF of 300K at $0.15 that appeared yesterday and sat there for the whole day, when we had some higher volume (~376.8K) was nowhere to be found today. This lends some credence, in my mind anyway, to my speculation in a comment in the concentrator that it was there to provide a floor so that yesterday's seller(s) (78.6% sells vs. today's low-volume 45.7%) could more likely sell above $0.15.

     

    Most of the usual, but little commentary, is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jun, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    When buyers believe most of the extraordinary risk has dissipated, look for strong growth opportunities.

     

    For investors with a long time period and a stomach for risk, the potential rewards are significant.
    19 Jun, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "For investors with a long time period and a stomach for risk, the potential rewards are significant. "

     

    Potential reward AND opportunity costs are both significant.
    19 Jun, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    D-inv:

     

    Opportunity cost are a part of the game for traders, as well as buy-and-hold investors.

     

    Since most mere mortals, only pick winning stocks 4 out of 10 tries, make sure you are diversified and everything will be fine, eventually.
    19 Jun, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "Since most mere mortals, only pick winning stocks 4 out of 10 tries, ...."

     

    4 out of 10 may apply to speculative "tries", but if did not do much better than that in my total portfolio I would not invest in stocks at all.
    19 Jun, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Not discounting his successes but he's definitely suffering from delusions of grandeur. And he loves to take on industries that are very heavily subsidized by the government in one or more ways.

     

    Musk: SpaceX could land humans on Mars in 10 to 12 years

     

    http://bit.ly/1yoTvI9
    19 Jun, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9913) | Send Message
     
    I heard there's a Starbucks already being built on Mars in anticipation ;-)
    19 Jun, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    ---
    "Musk joked that a mission to Mars may be an easier task than driving down the cost of electric car batteries to less than $5000. "
    ---
    II, Re: "delusions of grandeur" --- I'd probably refer to it as ambitious aspirations. Apparently he's been dreaming about doing these things all his life. He may not succeed at doing it all, but I like it that he's trying.
    19 Jun, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Maya, a Starbucks. Why? Heck, they don't even have a futbol team. I hear they can get one cheap from Spain.

     

    Hey, ya gotta gloat as long as ya can. I got til Sunday to milk it!
    -
    Wayne, do delusions of grandeur become aspirations after they age? lol
    -
    Now back to paint solidification assessment duties. Still tastes wet. Arrrg.
    19 Jun, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    In my case aspirations became delusions of adequacy, or at least that's what my first two wives thought.
    19 Jun, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: "Wayne, do delusions of grandeur become aspirations after they age?"

     

    Bass-ackwards: it's really " aspirations become delusions of grandeur after they age" I think.

     

    Depending on how maturity progresses I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jun, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL, I sure bumbled that one.
    19 Jun, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Looks like an interesting comparison of parallel and series hybrids

     

    Peeking “Under the Hood” of series hybrid vehicles

     

    http://ubm.io/1yp7GwX
    19 Jun, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Was this posted?

     

    Sacred Sun partners with Furukawa for lead-carbon batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/1uGXCus

     

    http://bit.ly/1yp8xhh
    19 Jun, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    OT, Well you can't say times will not change due to a lack of trying. One would think Harley would be the absolute last to take a shot at it.

     

    Harley-Davidson introduces electric motorcycle

     

    http://aol.it/1uHd0qN-grid7|responsive-test...
    19 Jun, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    Can you imagine electric Harley riders eschewing leather in favor of biodegradable plastic from vegetable oil.
    19 Jun, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    ii - interesting design. Once upon a time, I was an intern in Berlin and the entrepreneur that I was working for had a side project called the e-rockit that he was working on. The couple of prototypes he had at that time looked remarkably similar. Of course not as refined as the Harley model.

     

    http://bit.ly/1uHjypg

     

    http://on.fb.me/1uHjypm
    19 Jun, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, I seem to remember an author doing an article or two theorizing that the only battery-powered vehicles the next generation would ever see in mass production would have two wheels. Now what the heck was that fella's name....?

     

    Way OT -Carlos, Colombia & Brazil looking good.
    19 Jun, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    IIRC that author specified two wheels and electric motor and pedals because the unladen weight of a electric vehicle pull cannot exceed 70% of it's loaded weight. Very few Harley Davidsons fit that formula.
    19 Jun, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3447) | Send Message
     
    Beware the coming onslaught of the vegetarian e-biker gangs!
    19 Jun, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    ... picking fights in roadhouses when patrons order a burger, fries and a beer.
    19 Jun, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    I guess they can just shape the battery pack like a skull.
    19 Jun, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • KillaCycle
    , contributor
    Comments (548) | Send Message
     
    The Harley electric will quite likely be popular because:
    1) It is made in the USA.
    2) It is high performance.
    3) It does not look like a "traveling science project".

     

    The KillaCycle was _extremely_ popular with the All Harley Drag Racing Association (AHDRA) for all these above reasons. Never heard a single negative comment in all the years I raced in AHDRA events. Rarely paid an entry fee. Pits would empty out and the stands would fill up every time they announced we were making a run.

     

    You would think the opposite, but the Harley folks all loved the "battery bike." Mechanics, riders, Hells Angels, everyone.
    19 Jun, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Our local version: http://bit.ly/1ipH7mu unfortunately uses lithium http://bit.ly/1ipH5uH
    19 Jun, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Hi rgh:

     

    Nice game, all are very happy!!

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    19 Jun, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    The Killacycle was cool and in a VERY friendly setting.

     

    Electric Harleys on the road? Not so much. There will be the fear that you won't be able to buy a REAL Harley dropping REAL potatoes anymore. That if knuckle-dragging Harley is knuckling under to the Man, it must be the end of true freedom [not to mention, fake or not bad-assedness] for all.

     

    Not a fan. Then again, I still haven't got much love for the V-rod, either.

     

    Maybe once all the citizens of the US are graduates of the New School run by government union shills who call themselves "teachers", just maybe Harley will get away with making only electric-only bikes. 'Twill be a sad day if it comes to that, IMO.
    21 Jun, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    The chart pattern in the last few months looks a heck of a lot like a pennant.

     

    A high-volume up day that broke ~0.175 would be very bullish.

     

    http://bit.ly/1uHo1bB
    19 Jun, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    I've written a couple instablogs on my earlier adventures in supply and demand imbalances. You may find the interesting.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Comparing Axion's imbalance to these examples is like comparing a tiger to a house cat, but I believe that the behavior will be similar.
    19 Jun, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Took a random gander at ZBB's career opening page:

     

    Current Openings

     

    Electrical Product Engineer
    Electrical Project and Systems Engineer
    Senior Power Electronics Hardware Engineer
    Senior Power Electronics Software and Controls Engineer
    Financial Reporting Analyst
    Regional Sales Manager – East Coast
    Regional Sales Manager – West Coast
    Field Service Technician
    19 Jun, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1447) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1iNNN8U

     

    Hawaii RFP
    20 Jun, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Interesting post PY.

     

    As previously stated, I have always waffled between ZBB and Axion as to which company would get to some type of meaningful sales first. Initially, I thought ZBB had the edge b/c it had more demos in the field for a number of years. Then, I thought Axion had the edge b/c auto would likely give it meaningful recurring sales.

     

    Now, that Axion has shifted its focus to stationary storage, a market that ZBB has focused on for far longer (and the recent shortlisting of ZBB by the IID confirms), ZBB has dedicated sales people that have been pounding the streets in both Hawaii and California, the Cummins deal which is going into regular production, and the recent financing behind it, it would seem that ZBB is currently better positioned for the developing RFPs in stationary storage.

     

    In any event, hopefully Axion is present for the Hawaii RFP b/c they were not for the IID RFP.

     

    Just for a feeling of timelines:

     

    "Bidders must provide a schedule with the goal of having the storage system in service by the first quarter of 2017."
    20 Jun, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    If contracting details of the Hawaii RFP align with those Guam's power company applied, AXPW is disadvantaged by two provisions typical of 'elephant' players. Bidders were required to post a 15% performance bond before the proposal would be considered and awardees were subject to stiff penalties for delays beyond specified timelines. System integrators will need high confidence Axion will be able to supply PbCs on a timely, sustained basis before selecting PbC batteries for their proposals.
    20 Jun, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4610) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Another good reason Axion needs to attract a better class of financing investors. A function we retailers can't service.
    20 Jun, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2384) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv - All the more reason Axion should be selling BATTERIES, not systems. Integrators, possibly like Bysolar, are the consumer. Hawaii RFP, as are the Guam RFp, SEPTA project, and the endusers in NJ are not trying to buy batteries, they are trying to buy a solution. That solution may need the technical specifications of the bio-carbon to work effectively.
    20 Jun, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    RK -

     

    I agree, but at some point you want to have the buyers of the solutions requesting to have Axion inside. How do you do that? You have to get out there over and over ... at a minimum, guerrilla marketing ...
    21 Jun, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1lf7T0h

     

    gorilla marketing
    21 Jun, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    THere's a two-story gorilla around the corner from me hawking Lumber Liquidators. First time I saw it I had to pull over and snap a selfie. You gotta be kidding me, I was chuckling. Posted it somewhere.
    21 Jun, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    Well, and may be so maybe no, Rick. If PbCs are not drop in replacement batteries for existing systems, new systems designed to use PbCs need to be developed and until they are there is no demand for the battery. Axion can choose to remain totally dependent on other enterprises or it can design control systems enabling use of the batteries and make them available (gratis, or under license).
    21 Jun, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2384) | Send Message
     
    The ultimate buyers don't care if it is "Axionized!" They just want a reliable, cheap solution to their power problem. If part of that answer is Axion, that's nice.

     

    You need a hyperactive eocsytem developing unique applications/solutions that require the Bio-Carbon answer.
    21 Jun, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2384) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv - Axion does not design electronics. Their contractees have, in my opinion, not supplied compelling solutions - merely "sorta-semi-solutions". Not Princeton, not Outback, not any other that I have heard of.

     

    If the electronics waste half the energy available because it cannot utilize the lower half of the voltage curve, you are trying to run the race with extra weights on your ankles. One of my pet peeves is talking with several Axion employees has been their apparent obliviousness to the amount of waste they accept as a plausible electronics partner.
    21 Jun, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    RK, at this point I agree. Who even knows what a biocarbon/pbc is?
    22 Jun, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (859) | Send Message
     
    "You need a hyperactive eocsytem developing unique applications/solutions that require the Bio-Carbon answer."

     

    "Peanuts? Why plant peanuts? Those are just for circuses.'
    Until they were used for a truly amazing range of things.
    22 Jun, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Buenos dias!!

     

    Barclays Has The Best Explanation Yet Of How Solar Will Destroy America's Electric Utilities

     

    http://read.bi/1nJ81bi

     

    Have a nice day-Carlos
    20 Jun, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    06/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 30, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 17500, Vol: 188752, AvTrSz: 6292
    Min. Pr: 0.1520, Max Pr: 0.1545, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1539
    # Buys, Shares: 20 125244, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1543
    # Sells, Shares: 10 63508, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1531
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.97:1 (66.35% "buys"), DlyShts 78694 (41.69%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 123.91%

     

    $0.15 has been presenting more support than I expected (but what would've happened Tuesday when we had 376.83K volume and 78.6% “sells” without that 300K bid at $0.15 from ATDF?). We are approaching the moment of truth I think. There are small signs that it may continue to hold. But without volume it is hard to make a judgment with any confidence.

     

    When I add in the consistent, excepting today I guess, “painting” of the tape with highs set by 3xx-6xx share trades, I'm even less confident. The problem with this is that if they are working, I could be all wrong regardless.

     

    The 160K offer at $0.17 was again present today, remaining with CDEL.

     

    VWAP, which was continuously creeping lower, may be breaking the trend. Today is the second consecutive day of a higher VWAP. However, both days were low volume days, 85.29K and 188.75K, following a relatively higher volume day of 376.83K. I'm waiting to see what develops before reading much into it.

     

    ... I think today's low volume and buy percentage again confirms the Tuesday volume bump was a seller that really wanted out because the sell percentage was 78.6% on 376.83K, and Wednesday's sell percent was 45.7% on 85.29K, and today's was 33.6% on 188.75K volume.

     

    The day's low was a single 3,008 share trade for $0.1520 at 15:13:42. The next higher price, $0.1521, had six trades for 17.4K shares.

     

    At last we've seen a credible daily high – today's $0.1545 had five trades totaling 33K shares. Not large enough to be a big green flag, but large enough to not be a red one. The only one that I didn't like was the obvious assurance of a high close with a 700 share buy for $0.1545 at 15:59:41.

     

    At last the highs challenged my descending resistance, at ~$0.1535 today, which they had not done beginning 6/11. But in all truth it's the descending resistance which is doing the challenging as it dropped faster than the highs had dropped – the high did not rise up to meet the resistance. Regardless, we closed above it with three trades (one of 700 shares at 15:59:41) at $0.1545 in the last eighteen minutes of the day.

     

    Now if we only had some volume ...

     

    The oscillators I watch had a more positive slant today ...

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Hey, I was the 3,008 trade at .152 and had put in for 10K, so clearly a bunch of "poachers" jumped in ahead to pick up some shares, if that's useful info...guess the idea was, they could always turn around and sell them to me at .152 if it didn't work out.
    20 Jun, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    Josh: Sorry you didn't get a full execution. With ATDF on both sides at best such a high percentage of the time it's difficult. And they move or respond quickly to any improvements that might put them behind someone else.

     

    They are easy to dislike IMO.

     

    Congrats on getting a good low price though.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    All-Electric Erie Canal Boat
    http://bit.ly/1nnZEM2
    "The battery boat has 36 AGM lead acid batteries. The lead acid batteries are safe, familiar, and heavy – good for a vessel requiring ballast, Satterly says."
    20 Jun, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    I hear people occasionally mention that they bought or sold in a IRA type of account. I'm not a tax adviser, I just try and know enough not to have to hire one and to keep my life as simple (but not simpler) as possible..

     

    "Selling an investment at a loss in a taxable account and purchasing the same or substantially identical investment in an IRA-based account is a wash sale (Revenue Ruling 2008-5). Furthermore, such a transaction results in the permanent disallowance of the capital loss, rather than simply a deferral to a later date as in the case of replacing the investment inside a taxable account. "

     

    http://abt.cm/12pEkl9
    20 Jun, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1136) | Send Message
     
    or not. what he said^
    20 Jun, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Johnm - Not if 1 month lapses between trades.

     

    So buy today in IRA at $0.15 and sell in taxable account ~35 days from now at whatever the price then is, if you think it is going up. Do the reverse if you think it is going to go down before it goes up. A lot of if's; but that is the nature of the beast.
    20 Jun, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    JP> --- "... I've taken an embarrassingly small salary to help build a company..."
    --
    I guess I can't pass up this opportunity to say I wish TG thought similarly. And it wouldn't even have to be an embarrassingly small salary, just a "little" smaller. Gestures of this kind can go a long way toward restoring lost credibility.
    20 Jun, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    My embarrassingly small salary will earn me 10% of ePower, subject to dilution after the current seed round. I'll be cheap in the event of a failure but very expensive in the event of a success. Lawyers have a reputation for billing by the hour when risk is high and only accepting contingencies when the risk is low enough. The rep is well deserved.

     

    While anything is possible, I don't think many Axion stockholders would like to see a 10% to 20% stake peeled off for management at this point in the company's development.
    20 Jun, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9481) | Send Message
     
    I hope TG doesn't have a law degree. :-O
    20 Jun, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • KillaCycle
    , contributor
    Comments (548) | Send Message
     
    I noticed awhile back you mentioned that the genset was turning at a constant 1800 RPM. To optimize the fuel economy, you need to vary the RPM with the demand/load and to perhaps shut off the engine at times.

     

    The specific fuel consumption (fuel economy) of both Diesel and a spark ignition (gasoline) engines is a strong function of engine RPM. On a gasoline engine, specific fuel consumption is also a strong function of throttle position. However, on a Diesel engine it is only a very weak function of throttle position. (Throttle position has nearly no effect on specific fuel consumption in a Diesel. This is because it does not have an intake butterfly.) Thus, by holding your Diesel at constant RPM, and varying only the throttle, you are presently operating it in the least fuel efficient mode.

     

    When your genset arrived, it was configured for the typical application - constant 60 Hz frequency and constant voltage output with little regard for fuel efficiency. Thus, it was set to run at a constant 1800 RPM. In your application, you don't care about frequency, and you actually want to vary the voltage to control the target SOC of the battery pack. You want the hold the target SOC between ~30% and ~80%, and the voltage is the prime way to to achieve this.
    20 Jun, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    You've made a series of wildly inaccurate assumptions but my history with your commentary is bad enough that I won't waste my time correcting them.
    20 Jun, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John - it is not just KillaCycle who is making some wrong assumptions about lots of technical issues discussed in this blog and I am not referring to you. The vast majority of what you say is technically not far off the mark. To address each and every misconception and wrong assumption posted here would be a full time undertaking. Because Axion has not released full and comprehensive PbC battery performance characterization data, the educational task for a technically qualified person like Ed Buiel or Enders or Jay would be fraught with worries about revealing what Axion's management may have classified as a trade secret.
    20 Jun, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2776) | Send Message
     
    JP didn't you once own near 3%+ of Axion? I always wondered if you stepped down in 2008 because you liked the risk/reward of that stake and figured you were heading toward a happy ending scenario by decade's end.
    20 Jun, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30187) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> It's a personality thing with me. As lawyers go I'm a bit of a barbarian, although I can dress well when circumstances require.

     

    For early stage companies like Axion from 2004 through the completion of the Quercus financing and ePower today, my personality and way of doing things are exactly what the doctor ordered. When companies grow to a size where structures become more rigid and procedures get more formal, my "get it done even if you have to step on a few toes" mentality becomes increasingly difficult for those who like committees, meetings and the other niceties that all companies grow into as they mature.

     

    Since I've always worked as a solo practitioner, I also face limitations on transaction size. While most financiers will accept a small law firm for transactions under about $20 million, bigger numbers simply don't happen unless the issuer is represented by a big law firm.

     

    I've always viewed succession to a larger law firm as the surest sign I've done my job well.
    20 Jun, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1840) | Send Message
     
    "To optimize the fuel economy, you need to vary the RPM with the demand/load and to perhaps shut off the engine at times."

     

    Killa> Normally there won't be any change of demand/load upon the ICE. Remember that when the driver calls for acceleration it all comes from the batteries with no change in output required from the ICE/genset. (There is no conventional "throttle" that you are concerned with.)

     

    What happens when the batteries aren't charged enough to deliver the required boost I don't know, but I expect that is rarely the case. In addition to regen braking, the genset is constantly charging the batteries whenever the diesel is running. So there's also little to no gain in "to perhaps shut off the engine at times."

     

    If I am in error, somebody who knows the intricacies of the ePower model please correct me.
    20 Jun, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John - Is Sally Fonner still your partner?
    20 Jun, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • GambleAholic
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    just too funny to pass up. "rambo" bashes at 4:45pm and "believer" at 4:52. good chuckles thanks to the yahoo board guy!
    20 Jun, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    I think Sally is a great person.
    So how the ____ is that a bash ____?
    20 Jun, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • KillaCycle
    , contributor</