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  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    It will be a busy week for me, so if tradition holds, news will come out when I'm not watching.
    29 Jun, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Number deux!

     

    I am not expecting anything out of New Castle anytime soon and to be honest....I don't even know why I am still holding the stock. Feels like a major failure in my investing life, just not ready to admit it yet!
    29 Jun, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    "I don't even know why I am still holding the stock. Feels like a major failure in my investing life, just not ready to admit it yet! "

     

    Amouna, there is no question I drank some of the AXPW coolaid. To date my investment in the stock and persistence in holding despite recurring non-attainment of CEO stated objectives is the worst, most costly investment decision I have ever made. I continue holding a small position in AXPW (10% of pre-PIPE shares) for one reason and one reason only -- Norfolk Southern's demonstrated interest in the technology.
    29 Jun, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    There is a lot of irony in your posts. You are a risk management professional, but invested what must be a large amount to you in a stock that is both volatile and has unquantifiable risk (even liquidation value is up in the air).

     

    If you need a reason to hold on and raise your spirits, at least know that the risk/reward has never been better thanks to the supply/demand dynamic, the next potential financing is at least quantifiable, and near term catalysts are finally approaching.

     

    Until then, let's not hurt our own case here by bemoaning our fate and turning off potential buyers who are lurking here.
    30 Jun, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    If long-time holders are morose and the stock appears moribund....not to be contrary....but...
    30 Jun, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (430) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just updated JP's chart contributions! I know we all thank him for taking the time from his busy responsibilities to contribute these!

     

    Thank you John!
    29 Jun, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    I keep all those graphs anyway for my own purposes. Sharing them is no big deal.
    30 Jun, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Well folks.

     

    I had a wonderful time during my three weeks in France on my profits from AXPW. This is forward looking statement of financial information and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase this stock. While there, we drove a Ford C-max which burned oil gas for fuel (very responsive and quiet), rode in a Mercedes taxi with start stop which seem to operate quite nicely, rode on electric commuter train with top speeds of over 120 mph.

     

    However, I did not see any PbC on board stickers anywhere.

     

    But, never fear, they will be there in the future when the French see the light.
    29 Jun, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (750) | Send Message
     
    For those that thought June actually meant July in "Axion Time", it will be July momentarily.
    29 Jun, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Al,

     

    You made a comment on the 343 concentrator about the market cap really being $16M if the next raise is included. That comment makes it sound like next raise makes axion even more of a bargain than it is at $30M, rather than saying you are now buying something for $30 that you will soon be able to buy for $16. I reviewed some of your previous comments (from the 341 concentrator) and given your expectations about the terms of the upcoming raise, it seems like for purposes of calculating potential return and margin of safety you would need to use a much higher number for axion's current value. Am I misinterpreting your comments or were you giving a "worst case" as you see it and saying that even in the that case you expect a 50% return?

     

    Thanks.
    30 Jun, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg: I meant the $16m would be the value of the current share base (a little over 200m shares or $.08) if a new deal was done where $12m (a years operating capital) was raised for roughly 40% of the company (say 160m shares).

     

    I see that as the worst case scenario but there could be say a 30-40% chance of that coming to pass. To put this in context of a statement I made in response to a post by Maya a few days ago I also think there is another 30-40% chance that the next raise will be at a lesser discount to the present $.15 price, say 20%.

     

    Before going on, let me complete the process of sticking my neck out by stating think I there is a 20-30% chance that enough positive things will happen before the next raise that it will occur at roughly the current share price or better and that the erosion that seems to often take place in the wake of reverse splits will be minimal.

     

    Back to answering your question. I acknowledged (and do again here) that in the first twocases, clearly I would be better off holding off on my share purchases until after the financing is done. I further state that even netting out all the scenarios I probably would be better off waiting.

     

    However, it does seem that everyone on this board is essentially doing the same thing, and that is waiting for news with the plan to buy the stock post-news.

     

    Historically, I've thought that is the right thing to do but it sure seems now that too many people are on that side of this trade, way too many for it to work out. I think that's a recipe for the big supply and demand imbalance JP often talks about. Why is this?

     

    One possible problem with the wonderful community that we have here is that we create a concensus on the stock which exacerbates or even causes the very market inefficiencies we all so despise.

     

    Maybe the stock price is so low because we all know the full history of the disappointments. Newbies can quickly have their optimism doused as they easily access the history. We all "know" that TG is no longer the right leader for Axion, the company has done a poor job of promoting the product, and that customers are stupendously slow to adopt this great new technology which really is great. I freely admit that I have been one of the most aggressive in stating all of these points and am NOT recanting or apologizing because I do think they are correct.

     

    Again, as JP states, if something happens that changes the market concensus, the share price could change dramatically. Also, this board could very well increase the violence of that shift as we form a new concensus here and all figuratively rush over to the other side of the ship.

     

    So, my trading represents a little bit of a going against the concensus. A pychological not quantitatively-based decision.

     

    Also, as I stated before, despite the short-term likelihood of a downward move I think that a year from now the stock price will have more than recovered and I'll have made a profit on all the Axion share purchases I've made so far this year. I can be patient waiting for that day and will likely make even more purchases if the risk/reward gets more favorable.

     

    Hope that answers your question.
    30 Jun, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Al: What I am fearful of is that the 40:1 RS ratio may be going up.

     

    Hypothetically, if Axion is targeting a post RS price to be $6.00, the 40:1 works at 15 cents.

     

    But today, we breached 15 cents and are now a smidge above 14 cents.

     

    At 14 cents, the RS would be 43:1, for a share price of $6.02.

     

    At 13 cents, the RS would be 46:1, for a share price of 5.98.

     

    At 12 cents. the RS would be 50:1, for a share price of $6.00.

     

    Axion had better hope that one single major retail holder of AXPW doesn't capitulate.
    30 Jun, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    >>"Axion had better hope that one single major retail holder of AXPW doesn't capitulate. "<<

     

    It is us shareholders who had better hope. Axion as a company doesn't give a hoot on how we make out in this deal.
    30 Jun, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    NGS: Yep. And it looks like we're not seeing any rush to buy at $0.1402.

     

    Despite the fact that on the 6 month chart, the Williams %R is at - 100. Usually, this hints at a screaming opportunity to buy.
    30 Jun, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I don't think tech analysis signals are very useful on a stock like this. This will live or die on the outlook for future battery sales.
    30 Jun, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    "Despite the fact that on the 6 month chart, the Williams %R is at - 100. Usually, this hints at a screaming opportunity to buy..."

     

    Hmmmm not when you have TG's track record. I think anyone remotely interested in the Axion story has already made up his mind on the leadership: Either they deliver something meaningful (again it doesnt have to be sales, it can be contracts, strong partnerships, anything that hints to a path of recurrent sales), or they should be replaced, period. So you won't see anyone rushing to buy even at these depressed levels if they think the leadership is Bush league.
    30 Jun, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Do you know of any Axionistas large holders that are on the fence? Seems like those who wanted out would have chosen to do so before 14 cents. As a side, did you selling (recently and your previous exodus) move the pps significantly? How hard is to unload a large position? Can you speak to other Axionistas who you introduced to this name, are most still in or out?

     

    "Axion had better hope that one single major retail holder of AXPW doesn't capitulate."
    30 Jun, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    bazooooka:

     

    Most certainly, I know names of many 1M+ shareholders, but I don't know who is selling right now, or whom are on the fence.

     

    My selling has never moved the share price; I never sold all at once, and never sold during times of low volume (although, this most recent selling of "trading shares" last week and the week before, my selling was around 40-48% of that day's volume).

     

    Last year, when I did unload all of my shares in the 26 to 27 cent range, I sold off during 12 trading sessions, two of which I didn't sell a share. The most I ever sold in one day was 90,000 shares in three equal sized 30,000 block trades. I imagine, if I did sell all the shares in one day, I might have moved the needle by a penny or so. The hard part was taking the single largest loss by far in any stock I have ever owned. Even harder, was telling friends and family to bail and take losses.

     

    As for reaching out to other Axionistas to learn their "status," that's probably not apropos for me to do. Pretty sure everyone I introduced to Axion is now out of Axion, and has been for ~ 15 months. Highly doubtful that any will ever buy back in. I know I won't be encouraging them to do so, nor anyone else to buy Axion Power in the future, or at least until a clear path to sustainable and recurring sales happens.
    30 Jun, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Well put. A few have confided to me about family and friends who are no longer on speaking terms. I hope Axion didn't hurt more than your wallet.

     

    If only TG could communicate like JP then maybe non-retailers would have bought in. The whole bet the jockey thing seems to be in play here. I still believe in the horse but the wrong jockey has cost most of us dearly.

     

    ""The hard part was taking the single largest loss by far in any stock I have ever owned. Even harder, was telling friends and family to bail and take losses.""
    30 Jun, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    It's a shame but a solemn truth; I lost one very dear and long term pal, due to my selling him on buying Axion Power.

     

    I no longer, or seldom talk about investment ideas with anyone but my two sisters, and also over on QC.

     

    Expensive lesson learned...from many angles.
    30 Jun, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    I believe you did the right thing Maya. You were honest.
    You did the best you could.

     

    I have taken 60%+ losses on the initial investment I made in AXPW (0.40-0.45). I sold some shares at loss for tax reasons.

     

    My position today is an order of magnitude higher in dollar terms than it was then.

     

    I have no intentions of selling because cash should be cheap for this company given their low debt, and market cap is absurdly low for a company with so much potential.

     

    By potential, I'm talking about $/kW (not kWh) lifetime cost (rating lifetime nominal power at 80% of initial). Weight and volume are an issue for passenger vehicles, but not so much for a 35 ton tractor trailer, or a 10,000 ton loaded train, or a hundred thousand tons of dead weight stationary PbC batteries backing up the grid.
    30 Jun, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Al,

     

    Thanks, that is helpful. I have been trying to answer the question of how much of the stock do I want to own at the current price. I have a small stake (a few percent of my portfolio). The reason that I have not purchased more is that I am concerned that Axion could fail and I would not want to have 10 - 15% of my portfolio go away. I see the upside of the company but I am worried about the downside. It sounds like you are very confident that Axion will succeed but I would be interested to hear how you think about the downside case.

     

    Once I answer the question of how much I want to own at the current price, I reevaluate as new information (changes in the company or price) comes in. I personally don't try to evaluate the short term effect on stock price because I don't have a good feel for that. I do try to anticipate what effect the next raise will have. For that purpose I assume a higher "cost" of the company than the current market cap of $30M.

     

    Thanks.
    1 Jul, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg: I agree that Axion probably shouldn't be a large position for you because you could lose all your money. In the near future that is unlikely because the company doesn't have debt. However, 40% dilution a year does add up.

     

    I have a very high level of confidence in Axion's technology. It is very good at moving electricity back and forth (the Bob Averill description) and that will be huge someday. Unfortunately, the applications that will use this technology haven't existed in the past. So, we're just now getting to the point where the battery has been "proven" to a sufficient extent that companies may start designing products to enable those applications.

     

    Hopefully, some of the grid stuff will come quickly and in enough volume to enable Axion to raise money on reasonable terms. However, it seems clear that we are years away (at least) from cash-flow break-even. So, while I think the PbC will be a big winner in time, I also think there is a very real question as to whether current shareholders will be a part of that success.

     

    It reminds me of the situation of a friend. He was an early investor in Pixar but ended up losing over 90% of his money as 7 subsequent rounds of financing decimated his ownership stake.

     

    I think the overall risk-reward is favorable, but the risk and potential rewards are both extremely high.
    1 Jul, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    It'll only be 40% dilution if Axion raises money and does absolutely nothing for an entire year with cash burn. But at the moment of the raise, the added cash simply adds to the market cap. Given the new solar sales and NS-999, I find that prospect unlikely. IMO, the chances of a 40% loss is well worth the PLUG-like advance we could have once design wins happen. If you were accounting for total loss, I'd change it to 40% possible downside and thus 2.5x my position!
    1 Jul, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Alstom and Saft team will team up in a French project by year end to address Frequency Regulation:

     

    Alstom and Saft provide EDF with an innovative system of energy storage batteries

     

    11/06/2014 (that's June 11th to most of us)

     

    Alstom-Saft consortium contributes to the first demonstration launched by EDF on a megawatt scale for frequency regulation using a lithium-ion battery storage system.

     

    http://bit.ly/V29blh
    Saft is delighted today to be providing the first battery for primary frequency control installed in France,"said François Bouchon, Director of the energy storage activity at Saft. "With our international experience in the integration of renewable energies especially for networks in the Paris area, this innovative experiment will demonstrate the added value of a battery storage system and the performance of Li-ion technology in this promising sector."
    30 Jun, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/V29i0p

     

    29 June 2014 opinion piece from Wall Street Journal entitled "The Carbon Regulation Boogi...er Bubble".

     

    No comment. No denials. No endorsements.
    For information only.
    30 Jun, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    2 tweets from Altoonaworks yesterday:

     

    7:55 PM - 29 Jun 2014 NS 999's paint has been touched up as needed after all new battery racks were installed, changing its outward shape.
    http://bit.ly/V2fOEn

     

    7:55 PM - 29 Jun 2014 We should be seeing the 999 out of the shop soon.
    http://bit.ly/V2fRzQ
    30 Jun, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    Thanks for the Altoona Works update. I've been too busy with life lately to read/post much. Hope we see the roll out soon and see if NS 999 can do the job.
    30 Jun, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    Nice find WT. I don't have a twitter account, but if I did, I would ask if they could post a picture of the new paint job.
    30 Jun, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    The pic(s) will appear on their Facebook page when they have one.
    Most of their twitter posts are just links to their Facebook posts which are largely but not exclussively photos; these two tweets were unusual in that respect.
    30 Jun, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Yes WT. I agree they are tweeting because they are not yet ready to post photos. Can't wait for the photo shoot. Reminds me of this time when Sports Illustrated was doing a swimsuit edition on the island my grandparents retired on and I just happened to catch a glimpse of a half-nude model changing behind a clothes rack. I was 15. Needless to say I was awestruck.

     

    I take a perverted pleasure in knowing that I have become a locomotive "voyeur".
    30 Jun, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Good news PY ... looks like they're "baring the racks" on the NS-999 :-)
    30 Jun, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • bubbleking
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Any chance NS orders fresh batteries for the NS999?
    30 Jun, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    >>Any chance NS orders fresh batteries for the NS999? <<

     

    Highly doubtful.
    30 Jun, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    bubbleking,
    NO, they will use the batteries they paid Axion for back in late 2012 - early 2013. They paid Axion again to recharge / condition / "freshen up?" those batteries to make sure they were ready to "go live" after having been stored for over a year and a half.

     

    As to whether there will be any follow-on orders for OTR locos or even other switchers, that's the bet you have to place yourself. Personally, I think they have big plans for battery-powered locos and that they will be able to quickly gather from the NS-999 switcher loco the data they need to make that go-ahead decision.
    30 Jun, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >bubbleking & nogoodslacker ... Not only highly doubtful but new batteries for NS999 should be elevated to "No chance in hell" status. I believe I'm correct that Norfolk is equipping NS999 with Axion's PbC-v1.0 which would make sense. They did all of their prototyping & data gathering with this pre-automated carbon line fabrication and using the new & improved PbC-v2.0 would screw up the dataset making it impossible to do apples-to-apples comparisons.

     

    It is good to know that, after all this time, the old handmade PbC is still considered good enough to proceed with. The dataset for PbC-v2.0 will be the province of the OTR & ePower.
    30 Jun, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    DRich:: Not sure if I'm agreeing, or disagreeing, but I think if I were NS, and I'd finished a working prototype for the yard switcher, I'd be making plans to make more of them before I started a project to make an OTR engine. My thinking would be: "we have something working, lets extend and expand its scope to create some return on our investment before going to the next invention". But then, I know nothing about the railroad industry.

     

    If they are planning on doing the OTR prototype before building more yard switchers, they must be even more serious about Axion and battery equipped hybrids than I realized.
    30 Jun, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    >EM ... how do you define "quickly?"

     

    I note you put a "s" on "OTR locos" ... I might agree we'll see one greenlighted in say 2-3 months after the 999 starts demonstrating real work, but I think the test period for that one OTR unit will be definitely longer than 2-3 months before they commit further orders. And I would be disappointed, but not stunned that the racking people have to get involved again pending OTR data acquisition.

     

    Sadly, my WAG is that they're much more interested in the OTR, so we may not see any more switchers built before the 2nd OTR is built. After all, they need (different type of) base units for either, and it takes Altoonaworks "production" which seems to be quite in demand. Hoping for a mild winter!

     

    Emphasis WAG ... hope I'm wrong.

     

    Of course in my dreams, if NSC wants to step up after the reverse switch and make a tiny for them "good faith" strategic "silent" partner AXPW investment, they can take their sweet time testing as far as I'm concerned. That would send a great message to those paying attention, and would provide $$ far in excess of a few battery orders. I might even send TG a Christmas card if that happens :-)

     

    One more comment ... NSC may spend planning effort and resource allocation (including management) that would be very positive, but wouldn't direct affect AXPW's bottom line, and sadly wouldn't be obvious to us.
    30 Jun, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    re': "quickly"

     

    They did get work out of the first NS-999, though I was never able to confirm how much or how long it lasted. Single data-point from unknown source was "two weeks" from launch to crash. Yet they decided to pursue further, fairly quickly. There's that word again. They obtained a lot of experience with the PbC via string testing on a loco-simulator in Roanoke, knowing what it had to deal with, knowing what had burnt the first wiener. Still, they proceeded. This is the last stage - real-world confirmation. If the unit lasts longer than the first, say a month, which I strongly believe it will, I will give Barbee and Wick about two minutes to take the next step, which I reckon has already been planned and for which I have little doubt Axion is also ready.
    So my definition of "quickly": One month and two minutes.
    30 Jun, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    wtb - also - did not mean to suggest that any follow-on NS order would be for more than one additional loco at this time - but I do believe it will be for 1728 batteries, as per the OTR loco patent.
    30 Jun, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    The number of batteries that NS orders next is nothing compared to the language used about future plans and the performance of the battery and Axion's (doubtful) ability to amplify those waves across the media.
    30 Jun, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Mostly agree, Patrick, but statements of either intent or praise will most likely be carefully parsed if offered at all at this point. Still welcome though!
    Whereas if the order is for another 864 PbCs, that means another switcher, but if it's for 1728, that means we're moving from the sidetracks right to the right tracks. Or I s'pose it means two switchers if you're a pessimist.
    So the number may be meaningful.
    30 Jun, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    I am looking for NS to have a "scouting report" rollout of NS 999. Only lurkers and loco voyeurs will know about it initially. Sometime soon however, we will get a press release from NS that details strategic plans to hybridize the core of their network, with industry partner Axion Power, and the number we'll be talking about won't be the number of batteries but the number of MW when it's all said and done.
    30 Jun, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, I think you have laid out a reasonable scenario. A press release would be just fine by me. Unfortunately, I'm somewhat certain that any OTR loco will make the pilgrimage to D.C. - I abhor planned obeisance to the ruling class - it only encourages them and dupes others.
    30 Jun, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Things would be different if I was Caesar.
    30 Jun, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >JamesBBecker ... I'm not going to tell you that Norfolk will not build more BP4 class switchers. There is a good chance they will if testing on the NS999 works the way we hope. They do need a couple of dozen to comply with 2017 EPA standards and they have been underwhelmed by genset locos for this. That leaves retrofitting with really expensive diesel engines or the BP4. I have my preference.

     

    The truth is that no mainline railroad cares very much about switchers either in the yard or for shunting customer sites. In the late 2000's there was a rush to build switchers but that market opportunity is gone for the most part. It could be the explanation for NS999-v1.0 being rushed out, figuring batteries are an easy install and ignoring the Green Goat failure. The need has been filled by gensets that will need rebuilds in the mid 2020s. The real interest for Norfolk has always been in the OTR because that is where the money is to be made.
    30 Jun, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    DRich or others, do you have any conception as to whether the OTR or the switcher work duty profile will be harder on a set of batteries.
    30 Jun, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... There is no doubt that the OTR will be magnitudes harder on the batteries. Flat ground, lightly loaded & short trips for the switcher. Over hill & dell being pushed (worked like a brake) & pulled (worked like the accelerator) by 100+ tons for hours at a time for the OTR.
    30 Jun, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    DRich :: Essentially you are saying that the if the switcher works well, there still won't be much of a market for it - for a while. Didn't understand that, thanks.
    30 Jun, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >JamesBBecker ... Correct, we are at the tail-end of the rush to build 2017 compliant switchers. Gensets won ... for now.
    30 Jun, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I think "magnitudes" is a gross exaggeration. They will push and pull the switcher and its batteries hard and loads can be of any weight, the loco itself weighs ~250,000 pounds and can still attain relevant speeds and certainly administer a torque-based beating to the BMS etc. While an OTR is heavier (not even twice), faster (maybe by half? WAG), the traction motors spread out the loads and currents and there will be twice as many batteries as well. I think the switcher experience will be very instructive to the OTR app.
    30 Jun, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    According to Wikipedia, NSC has 110 switchers as of 2013. Not a company maker, but outfitting just a dozen of these each year would give Axion enough money to stay afloat. Even an announcement of a few more switchers would help a ton at this point.
    30 Jun, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    According to the fleet chart on NSdash9 website there are 4088 locomotives in NS fleet. IIRC I thought there were close to 1000 switchers but I could be greatly off but your 100 number seems low to me.

     

    http://bit.ly/1r7nBhi
    30 Jun, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    I thought I heard the 1000 amount before, but I couldn't find the source. Maybe an NSC powerpoint?
    30 Jun, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    1000 would jive with my thoughts.

     

    Was just surprised to see your note above at 110.
    I agree that if they could get work to do a dozen a year that would be material to AXPW today.
    30 Jun, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Ranma ... I read recently how many switchers Norfolk has but it is the old number that sticks in my head ... and that is 1874. Now that is a total and doesn't breakdown how many are in storage or how many do what service. There are far more locos in the road switch & interconnect service than there are in yard service. The number 110 might not be far off the mark for purely yard working locos.
    30 Jun, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Some recent stats.

     

    Norfolk Southern
    Locomotive Fleet
    Overview

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1gX50RL
    30 Jun, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Edit: iinde beat me to the link.

     

    From that document:

     

    "Yard and Local – 1584 units" = 39% of their fleet.
    30 Jun, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    If anyone is interested NSC had an optimization study/model done at Princeton for their fleet in July 2013. I can't recall if I'd posted it before.

     

    http://bit.ly/1qKUuOn
    30 Jun, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    DRich ::

     

    Reading through the slides from the link posted by iindelco, I see statements such as:

     

    "The genset locomotives from all builders have not
    lived up to performance and reliability expectations"

     

    "Performance Issues:
    • Slow to load
    • Must get all engines running to kick cars
    - defeats multi-engine concept
    • Too light
    -limits wet rail pulling ability"

     

    Doesn't that indicate that NS would be interested in more Axion conversions if they work for yard switchers? Or is the message: "We will struggle through until the next retrofit. Then do Axion conversions"
    30 Jun, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    To be ready for large scale conversions I think you need a testing period of say 6 months to see if real world data lines up with your simulations. Then you start to see where you have variances/problems and then modify your design along with what you learned on Switcher2.0 and build out a larger fleet of test units to be tested at multiple locations in your system (statistically I guess 10-20).

     

    Then you make the decision of starting to do do conversion work. I'd expect this to be steady as they will take units instead of scrap and convert at that time. We've seen that Juanita doesn't seem to have a lot of spare capacity to really ramp up.
    30 Jun, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >JamesBBecker ... Maybe. I understand that Norfolk has a genset building program aimed at 2017 EPA compliance. It is for 27 units of which they have built 3 and are not happy with performance, maintenance and operations ... Yea! That tells me there is a chance this critical niche might be filled with BP4's. Time will tell.

     

    Whether or not Axion struggle through to the next rebuild depends on the battery ... which we know very little factual data about. I know my local shortline railroad has an order for 7 2017 EPA
    compliant switchers in Altoona of which 3 have been delivered as gensets (they are pretty) and they are dragging their feet on the rest hoping for something better. There is probably a market for BP4 or the AMPS design but the bulk of the 2017 market is built as gensets.
    30 Jun, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, 6 months might work out if they get it in action soon. They need to see real world testing in hot and cold weather. While I'm sure they did a bunch of this in the lab I still think they need both in the field as well.

     

    IIRC the road locomotive research was to run concurrent w/ the switcher locomotive development. This being said, I still do not see them purchasing batteries for the road locomotive before they get some run time on the yard locomotive.
    30 Jun, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Rich - Are you saying that your local shortline has Altoona (Norfolk Southern) building them gensets?

     

    Can you explain what the significance of the 2017 date and what is required for compliance?
    30 Jun, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Agreed with what you wrote 100%. I'd expect a few months just to see if their simulations. That should be enough to plan out a larger purchase order in early 2015 for more switchers and allow then to continue on the OTR.
    30 Jun, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >mrholty ... Exactly that. If you have visited the Altoonaworks Facebook page in the past several months, the header pictured one of those orange gensets that I see in service several times a week.

     

    The significance of the 2017 date is that locomotives need to comply with Clean Air Standards for soot, NoX, CO2 & noise pollution set out in the 2005 & 2007 EPA legislation. Class 8 trucks, construction equipment, lawn maintenance equipment, et al have this same mandate.
    30 Jun, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Mechanical engines are incredibly interconnected things. They are like a body of organs. It does not live long without all the organs. There is a certain probability that a given organ will fail, so by multiplying the number of organs you multiply the chance of failure proportionally. The beauty of a string of batteries, particularly ones that harmoniously "self equalize", is it operates more like the cells in an organ, all the same, more easily and cheaply replaced than the whole thing.
    30 Jun, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    patrick -->> That is an interesting analogy.
    30 Jun, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    On June 11, 2014, FERC announced that it will ask the
    United States Court of Appeals For The District of Columbia Circuit for an en banc review of that Court's decision on May 23, 2014, to vacate FERC's Order 745 on Demand Response in the wholesale markets.

     

    FERC has until July 7, 2014, to file the necessary paperwork with the Court.

     

    Rule 35 of the Curcuit Rules of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Cicuit, states, in part, the folowing:

     

    Rule 35)
    a) ....An en banc hearing or rehearing is not favored
    and ordinarily will not be ordered unless:
    (1) en banc consideration is necessary to secure
    or maintain uniformity of the court's decisions; or
    (2) the proceeding involves a question of
    exceptional importance.

     

    Demand Response is only one method of maintaining FR on a grid. DR is generally not in the same league as electrical storage is in providing FR, as it will not be as quick to respond as electrical storage will be in a FR situation,

     

    Given the part that DR plays in FR, this will be a case worth following.
    30 Jun, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (750) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the plunge in price today is giving people one last chance to get aboard cheap, before the train roll-out.
    30 Jun, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    End of quarter window dressing?
    30 Jun, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Interesting action in ZBB today.
    30 Jun, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, I doubt there are significant fund holdings.
    30 Jun, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    If it is "window dressing", someone needs to replace those moth-worn, faded, UV-degraded, raggedy-ass curtains.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Greenie;

     

    NS is hardly a secret. Why do you expect the train sighting to make AXPW move significantly upward? The pending risks are still at hand and Axion's revenues are not nearly covering operating costs. What's your thesis for an all aboard buying opportunity?
    30 Jun, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Stocks move on near term catalysts. There are an army of traders out there who move in and out of stocks when there are definable dates ahead that can launch the stock price. That was a surprisingly lesson to learn while trading - the market can ignore underlying value for a very long time.

     

    I've got another stock with a billion dollar market potential with a potential FDA approval by 2015.... sporting a market cap of 50m. Sure it's a biotech, but it's filed its application to the FDA already. That's the LAST step in the process! I guess why buy now when you can buy later? Also they may need to raise funds by the end of the year too...

     

    The stock is ADMP, and the Joe Springer article sums it up well.
    30 Jun, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (750) | Send Message
     
    bazoo, what Ranma said
    30 Jun, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Nissan prices replacement Leaf battery at $5,500

     

    This Drops New Pack Cost To Under $270-Per-kWh

     

    http://aol.it/1r7ieyy
    30 Jun, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Since the OEM battery packs on the first Leafs (MY 2012) won't be going out of warranty till 2019 (or 100,000 miles) I have to wonder what the value of this particular announcement is in the middle of 2014.

     

    It's almost enough to make one go Hmmm.
    30 Jun, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    I'd say to stimulate car sales. When it matters they can change the price. Inflation you know.
    30 Jun, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... No argument from me that the switcher testing experience will be instructive and applicable to the OTR. The question was which application has the harder duty cycle. To me there is no contest, it is the OTR.

     

    I'm unclear what you mean by "an OTR is heavier" or "faster" because those are no metric that figure into my thinking. I compare the force of 7,000+ tons on a 2% grade, up then down with no break, to the force of moving a 100+ cut of cars a couple miles (at most) on level ground then going idle.
    30 Jun, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    DRich, won't the OTR be paired with a diesel engine? So, it wouldn't be taking all that load by itself. Just assisting on hills and capturing brake energy on descents.
    30 Jun, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... That is exactly what the OTR will be designed & built to do. It will have traction motors. The OTR will not be along just for the ride. It will not be a job that is gentle on the equipment.
    30 Jun, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    DRich, to be honest, I was unsure why you thought the OTR app would be tougher, so I took the liberty of throwing out a couple of variables. Those are potential sources of the highest currents. Your "magnitudes harder" comment is clearly questionable. If by that you meant that the batteries will have to sustain the same workload 10 times over (that's a single "magnitude") or to put it another way, ten times longer, I could agree. Certainly yard work is not sustained work, but the nature of the work is similar. In fact, I hope they are asked to do ten times the work - or one hundred times even, as that would indicate 10 times the value as well. That will be a challenge. Certainly I agree with the spirit, if not the magnitude, of your comment.

     

    But the batteries will not burn up again. I am certain they will have put in place the necessary control(s) to prevent that from happening again. Now it will be a matter of how much work 864 PbCs can do for them.
    30 Jun, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    I believe the OTR load profile at NS will be a very close analog to the OTR load profile at ePower. We're constantly running the batteries up and down over differences in road grade most drivers don't even think about. Hopefully ePower will be in a position to release some hard data soon so that folks can see how our system works. It won't be a perfect overlay for NS, but I'm sure the two profiles will look very close.
    30 Jun, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    SOC swing? Voltage swing? Do you have any intention to do the flipside of your -4 PbC experiment - as in what happens to performance with 60 PbCs? I would think it would be instructive.
    30 Jun, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... The question was about duty cycle not basic electrical parameters because those will be roughly the same. 200 amps @ 480/600 V in the NS999 will not become 2,000 amps in the OTR. What will be different is the number of times over a given length of time the system cycles between charge & discharge, heat buildup and/or dissipation from each cycle, how much shock vibration force is exerted on the plate bonds and/or cell connections, and other things.
    30 Jun, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Perhaps a list of the possibly relevant variables would be useful?
    Many "duty cycles" are run on the bench. I would assume NS tested the batteries under all such possible scenarios - I would have - and the list of environmental variables is not that long. The fact that ePower hasn't said much if anything about thermal or vibrational (reliability) issues despite having high voltage spikes and continuous road duty is very positive, though I imagine rail will have a different set of vibrations - e.g., short sharp shocks from the Dark Side of the Moon, maybe? I believe NS would have put them through that kind of testing. The fact that Maya was comfortably cool inside the working PowerCube - there's not much in the way of special A/C on that trailer from what I have seen. Even the Uber-install data suggests thermal issues are manageable despite continuous duty. Some cold testing would likely have been conducted. Atmospheric pressure would be a variable to consider as well.
    I just didn't and still don't see anything that justifies your statement that the OTR duty will be "magnitudes harder on the batteries" than the switcher duty. I think if the switcher passes muster, the OTR should as well. It becomes a matter of the value of the work done.
    30 Jun, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... I'm not going argue. I'm just a lowly engineer with no dataset.
    30 Jun, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    SHoot, DRich, I was just trying to figure out why you thought the OTR would be "magnitudes harder on the batteries". No interest in an argument here, either. Amongst analytical chemists, "orders of magnitude" is a very quantitative phrase means 10s, while perhaps you were suggesting something much less than that. Since I myself am thinking all along that a successful switcher roll-out virtually guarantees a successful OTR program can be built, it meant a great deal to me that you cast such doubt on the switcher's relevancy. I have always looked forward to and respected your comments, esp. the rail-centered ones. Meant no disrespect here whatsoever.
    1 Jul, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... The switcher is not irrelevant. It will be proof on concept for the electrical system for both service types and provide mechanical service data the testbed in Roanoke can simulate but not duplicate. The OTR will share a quite similar electrical profile with its switching little brother, but make no mistake, the OTR is a very different animal.

     

    The mechanical stress on an OTR is much greater. I think it is, by definition, magnitudes greater but can't definitively prove it. The OTR is starting/moving much more weight (OTR, 7k to 16k tons/SW, 100 to 1k ton) at much higher speeds (OTR 40 mph, avg./SW 5 mph, avg.) on uneven ground which magnifies the weight of the drag (OTR, 0% to 3% grade/SW, 0% to 1%) for much greater lengths of time (OTR, ~20 hr-day/SW, ~6 to 8 hr-day).

     

    All of this relates, in my WAG, to wear-&-tear on the OTR batteries by cycling charge & discharge in much smaller time intervals than the NS999, which builds up more heat for longer periods of time. Next the battery plate bonds would have to endure the standing vibration of the bumping & grinding of wheels on meandering track along with wind load (things the switcher seldom deals with) along with the variable shockwave of cars slamming into each other because of speed change & terrain (a condition shared with vastly different Newton values).

     

    A switcher lives a very easy life compared to a line loco.
    1 Jul, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the input, DRich.
    Are you aware of any technologies currently employed by railroads that might help lessen the mechanical stresses should they prove too much?
    The short, sharp shocks I mentioned, as might be transferred through all that steel-to-steel contacts, would seem to be different from anything a rubber-tired ePower truck might subject them too. And that does seem difficult duty likely to exacerbate lead slump or metal fatigue.
    Maybe the racking system could be put on some dampening, maybe individual battery cases might be equipped with a shock-absorbing bottom - some closed-cell foam or even hard rubber?
    1 Jul, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... Tier 1 roads are doing a lot of things to reduce stress on the equipment. I'll not list all of them because many are just testing but the big ones being installed right now are:

     

    1) piered concrete rail ties
    2) continuous welded rail
    3) better expansion joints, eliminating plate & spike connectors, similar to those used on steam pipe
    4) a lower rolling resistance profile rail. Norfolk is busy installing this along the Crescent Corridor.
    5) remote in-track wheel/flange/bearing monitoring

     

    What can be done to the battery strings? I can only guess. Inertial dampers, active cooling, resistors or maybe a different carbon matte bonding agent will age better in this service ... I really haven't a clue. Many areas to investigate and should keep engineers busy for years.
    1 Jul, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Norfolk Southern Withdraws Tank-Car Legal-Protection Rule

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1qKOxRA
    30 Jun, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Guess that wasn't a parade after all ...
    30 Jun, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Navigant Research wants more of your money:

     

    Nanogrids

     

    Grid-Tied and Remote Commercial, Residential, and Mobile Distribution Networks: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

     

    http://bit.ly/1qKZD9c

     

    "Nanogrids are modular building blocks for energy services that support applications ranging from emergency power for commercial buildings to the provision of basic electricity services for people living in extreme poverty. In many ways, nanogrids are just small microgrids, typically serving a single building or a single load. Because of the simplicity, the technology requirements for nanogrids are less complex (in most cases) than those for either microgrids or the utility-dominated smart grid.

     

    Ironically, nanogrids are big business. While microgrids exhibit exponential growth and share synergistic properties with many nanogrid segments, substantial deployments of nanogrids are already in place. This is because they actually face less technical and regulatory barriers than their microgrid counterparts"
    30 Jun, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    I imagine they'll soon have a report coming out on yoctogrids for hamster cages, aquariums; no doubt a huge market only they have thought of.
    30 Jun, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Hamsta SqueakePower. Peak output when you're trying to get some sleep. Follow your nose to the nearest distributor.
    30 Jun, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Congress must protect military energy security

     

    http://bit.ly/1qL33ZI
    30 Jun, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Flibe Energy is working a portable source for the military
    http://on.fb.me/1pFsy1q
    http://bit.ly/1pFsy1s
    30 Jun, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Blue Earth and PowerGenix Enter Multi-Year Joint Product Development and International Master Agent Agreements

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1qL4HdN
    30 Jun, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    OK...let's see.
    1) Read latest concentrator...check.
    2) Vote for reverse split...check.
    3) Back to working on my front deck and lurking...check.
    30 Jun, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Are we all invited for the 4th of July party on your new deck?
    30 Jun, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    If a trifecta of the creation of a NY investment group securitized REIT backed by PbC and other grid income assets, release of a major strategy to hybridize their network with PbC from NSC, and out of the ashes, a deal with a third party American auto manufacturer and an American lead-acid battery company comes to pass I'll be hosting everyone on my 80 foot Catamaran.

     

    (Next year)
    30 Jun, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Patrick,

     

    Thanks for passing that hopium joint around! ;-))
    1 Jul, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    I think TG needs to layoff the hopium pipe, take off the rose colored glasses, push back the curtain, and honestly assess where his company stands for his investors.

     

    Continually pumping the significant sales angle without anything significant to show for it is beginning to get ridiculous or maybe it is already there.
    1 Jul, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    We passed the ridiculous time frame about 6 months ago, but I still have my fingers crossed! Unfortunately that has become my Axion investment thesis these days!
    1 Jul, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    I'm just hoping TG didn't have his fingers crossed.
    1 Jul, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    TG doesn't strike me as the betting type.
    1 Jul, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I've got a 70 year old home. There is nothing "new" in it, only parts that I make repair to. In this case I spent all day Saturday re-grouting the bricks and then every evening of the following week cleaning up the ensuing mess, because I was too tired to clean off all the bricks at 1 am, when I finished grouting, and so had to go back and scrape off the dried on grout, with a wire brush and a metal scraper, one brick at a time, to get the excess grout off. That'll teach me to try and do too much in a day. Just left me with a bigger mess.

     

    That being said, I don't think we would all fit on the deck. Maybe if I ever make any money on Axion I can rent a tent and have everyone over.
    1 Jul, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    John, Is this ePower document something you will update with the latest economics once you feel you have the design you will produce for prototype fleet testing and a better feel for mileage expectations? If so do you have very gross wishful timing when you might push this into the public domain?

     

    http://bit.ly/1qLklFX
    30 Jun, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    Iindelo-

     

    Can you please not post that nice ePower presentation. AXPW director of Marketing may have to think about something similar to put together about the SWOT of the Cocobattery (PbC).
    30 Jun, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty. Very well done right? Axion's would be slide one automotive-NDA, slide two rail-NDA, slide three other-NDA and slides xx-yy (see above presentation). Final slide Questions? Yadda, yadda, yadda NDA.
    30 Jun, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure when we'll have enough hard data to rerun the economics in the presentation deck, but I am planning a series of brief (6 to 8 page?) experience white papers.

     

    The first will focus on the results we get hauling concrete blocks around northern Kentucky with Mario at the wheel. The second will summarize the results our independent trucker gets hauling freight for a few weeks. With each successive fleet demonstration we'll try to do a similar white paper with another operator's experience.

     

    The theory is that data we generate will be viewed with considerable skepticism but data from other truckers will be reasonably credible at the outset and overwhelmingly credible by the time we get to a half-dozen reasonably consistent reports from different operators. This is one of those times when I'm really grateful that truckers don't obsess over things like NDAs and black canvas secrecy.

     

    I had hoped that our work would be done by now but things like this almost never go according to plan. We still want to have the tractor in the hands of our first operator by mid-month so that we can turn our attention to finishing the day cab this summer.
    30 Jun, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    I look forward to any data. View it all with appropriate skepticism anyway. Thank you so much for visibility.

     

    Race between trucker and engineer? Still on, folks.

     

    Source of next 100% share price increase? Still undecided.

     

    Current fun index on scale of ten: 10.

     

    And here comes the best holiday of the year. Who chopped off the ruler's head? That's right, we Americans! No stoppin' choppin'!
    30 Jun, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John! Look forward to your white papers. You never disappoint when it comes to your willingness to share and your ever improving skill set when it comes to communications. Looking forward to digesting data you can share from your teams efforts. Heck I can't be as excited as they are having their hands buried in the program but I bet I'm not far from it. Holding back a few World Cup cheers for them.

     

    Love this stuff so please excuse my queries. Trying not to be too intrusive! :-I
    30 Jun, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    You can always come visit you know.
    30 Jun, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! But parting would be such sweet sorrow.

     

    Or I could assure your first test unit could always use any available HOV lanes! ;-D
    1 Jul, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    How Opposite Energy Policies Turned The Fukushima Disaster Into A Loss For Japan And A Win For Germany

     

    http://onforb.es/1qLpY73
    30 Jun, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Toyota's new Prius hybrid delayed 6 months

     

    http://bit.ly/1qLuQcw
    30 Jun, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Forbes article:

     

    How Opposite Energy Policies Turned The Fukushima Disaster Into A Loss For Japan And A Win For Germany

     

    http://onforb.es/1qLpY73
    ---
    "Japan is indeed poor in fossil fuels—but among all major industrial countries, it’s the richest in renewable energy like sun, wind, and geothermal. For example, Japan has nine times Germany’s renewable energy resources. Yet Japan makes about nine times less of its electricity from renewables (excluding hydropower) than Germany does."
    30 Jun, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    There was a question raised by the author in the above article that I've wondered about.
    ---
    "Many claim renewables could harm grid stability. So why do Germany, with 25% renewable electricity in 2013, and Denmark, with at least 47%, have Europe’s most reliable electricity, about ten times more reliable than America’s?
    -
    Does anybody have an answer on how grid stability is maintained when there's a high percentage of intermittent wind and solar generation? --- It's obviously not being maintained by using Axion PCs.
    1 Jul, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Germany's experience with renewables has been almost catastrophic and their variability is high enough that neighboring countries are severing interconnects to protect the stability of their own grids while the Germans are building new coal-fired plants.

     

    The article's suggestion that Germany is coping well and keeping everything running smoothly is pure bunk.

     

    If you do a simple google search for the terms "unreliable german renewable" you'll get about 17 million hits.
    1 Jul, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • alasmaci
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Australian utilities are looking to kick rooftop solar off the grid.

     

    http://bit.ly/1z4Jz6W
    1 Jul, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Germany has the world's largest "battery" next door - Norway. A huge amount of the variability is handled by the hydro resources of Norway. Impounded hydro is the perfect partner for renewables, since the power output can be increased or reduced nearly instantly. Rain rolls over Germany and blocks all the PV, Norway lets the water flow. Ten minutes later, the sluices are choked.

     

    There are very few places with so much hydro per capita. Iceland is the only other actual one I know. Ethiopia has the water resources to be, but the dams and related infrastructure have not been built.

     

    In addition to Norway, Germany distributes a lot of the variability to their neighbors, and is causing very major intra-European conflict. Some say the EU power grid may expel Germany.
    1 Jul, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Wayne:: If you read the bottom of the article, you will see that it was originally written as an editorial by the Renewables Association of Japan. Like all such articles, it had lots of percentages, but no hard numbers that I could find. What do Japan's households pay per kwh? What do German households pay? As they say..... Crickets..

     

    Without that sort of information, the article was more propaganda than analysis.
    1 Jul, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    WiO,

     

    "If" I remember correctly, from a previous article I read, besides Norway (as Rick mentioned) the Germans also rely on power they get from France's nuclear power plants to smooth out their renewables.
    1 Jul, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1047) | Send Message
     
    I'm from Oz

     

    that is talking about installations greater than 30kW, typical domestic install here is about 1.5kW

     

    Christmas day effect in Australia (or more precisely Christmas holidays) is typically the peak annual electricity demand, it runs from Christmas into new year, and depends on hottest weather days over that 2 week period. Summer - cricket, air conditioner usage, happy attitudes. Solar has already reduced the annual peak in Australia, reducing the need for the most expensive electricity generation (ie the power plant that is need only for 15 minutes per year)

     

    But the big cost for electricity is not fuel or generation or tax, it is transmission and maintenance. rooftop solar, solar hot water, efficient air conditioners reduce electricity demand, leading to greater unit cost for everyone due to high fixed maintenance costs. Net work costs can were about 50% here, customer service (ie billing service) - 20%, generation and fuel - 20%, carbon tax -10%
    30 Jul, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    WO
    To operator a power system, the system operator has to maintain a balance between supply and demand. Nothing magic about it. If I am running their system, I will be screaming for Axion PCs.
    23808 ( Retired power engineer)
    1 Jul, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Nice avatar, 23808. I'll never forget that trip. Thanks for your input and background.

     

    I have a couple of quick questions:

     

    What property of the Axion PC would you think you would find most valuable?

     

    Given a regional grid like Germany or PJM (the former is twice the size of the latter), could the balance be maintained from a central location of 1000 PowerCubes (hypothetical number only), or would it be preferable to have a distributed network - i.e., PowerCubes nearer the variable sources of demand and supply? Or would it make no difference?
    1 Jul, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Distributed storage is the most sensible approach because every grid has significant transmission and distribution bottlenecks that can be ameliorated by a distributed architecture. Moreover, a distributed architecture is far more robust and secure.
    1 Jul, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Edmund - Definitely distributed would (if engineered properly and not merely by political edict) be more robust and more effective. One of the most difficult problems facing utilities is the inability to build additional transmission capacity. The politics and regulatory fights are incredibly dysfunctional.
    1 Jul, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    I tend to think of EM in "fields", such that if I put it in over here it's instantly and completely available over there.

     

    Losses on transmission I'd forgotten about, maybe irrelevant but maybe not, don't know the numbers, just guessing, but even 0.01%/mile would be something to address I suppose. Bottlenecks however would essentially subdivide grid and allow local FR needs to arise. So any "central supply" would have to be designed with respect to sub-grids created by bottlenecks.

     

    Moral of the story then is that FR resources, whether for generators or users, are best placed as close to the need as possible. Thanks.
    1 Jul, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    EM
    Power Cube's most valuable feature to me is frequency control.

     

    Ideal world, each solar farm should have Axion PC and redundant back up generation like Gas Turbine. This way, the power source from the solar farm is clean and reliable power source to the system.
    1 Jul, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    >EM

     

    "I tend to think of EM in "fields", such that if I put it in over here it's instantly and completely available over there."

     

    For a second there, I thought you were going all 3rd person on us ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1rTDntR
    1 Jul, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    lol - Well said, wtb - He shall now sally forth for his sixth fifth in his quest for the seventh heaven.
    1 Jul, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    EM: "... Losses on transmission I'd forgotten about, maybe irrelevant but maybe not"

     

    This exact topic was covered in some discussion waaaay back, before you started participating IIRC. It turns out that loses are "substantial". BangWhiz's site should help locate the threads using "transmission losses" I guess. Wikipedia also has a blurb on it.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    1 Jul, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    I'll check that out. Thanks, HTL.
    1 Jul, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    I sense a massive build up of frustration among the legacy shareholders here in this summer of 2014, exacerbated by the many missed deadlines/opportunities that have been continuously given by management. The question I want to ask is: how much good will is there left ?

     

    My feeling is that going forward we will start seeing a lot of previously upbeat shareholders bailing out en masse. The current market cap is nowhere near the absolute lowest point of the cycle.

     

    On the positive side, this is the opportunity for boD to objectively assess their strategy/goals, marketing strategy and see what works and what doesn't, and stand ready to make deep changes if necessary.
    1 Jul, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1033) | Send Message
     
    The most frustrated are also the most vocal. So just a survey of the tone of concentrators does not mean much and may prevent one from understanding what's really going on.

     

    I wonder who will be the most vocal when the train (finally) leaves the station, those running to catch it or the patient / stubborn / lucky ones?
    1 Jul, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    Amouna/Nicu - See above post.

     

    Nicu - If the proverbial train ever leaves the station, will there be anything left for legacy holders who have been sold a bill of goods for quite some time now?

     

    I would love to be vocal about what a great job Axion mgt is doing, but I really can't point to much of anything right now.
    1 Jul, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    I think the more likely scenario is the train will get filled from the other platform (new shareholders of post-billion share expansion), and there won't be any seats left for the shareholders on the old platform.

     

    "All aboard" is pretty hollow when there no seats: http://bit.ly/1z4QVHC
    1 Jul, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Agreed Nicu. I wanted to sell 1% of my holdings and make some money on a 0.03 swing, but I seemed to have missed the opportunity. I don't see a 0.03 or more drop from here to be worth the risk of owning 1% fewer shares.
    "The less you bet the more you lose when you win."

     

    I once took a final in an engineering class that included a factor for how sure you are of the answer. You got fewer points for a wrong answer with a 100% certainty than for an answer you are sure is wrong. I am sure we have a solution to a multitude of problems with PBC.
    1 Jul, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Nicu,

     

    There is no joy in seeing the train leave the station if there are 2 billion shares outstanding. Doesn't do me not a lot of people here any good :)
    1 Jul, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    06/30/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 126141, Vol: 675553, AvTrSz: 10723
    Min. Pr: 0.1401, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1478
    # Buys, Shares: 19 103653, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1466
    # Sells, Shares: 42 568590, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1480
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 3310, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1431
    Buy:Sell 1:5.49 (15.34% "buys"), DlyShts 79920 (11.83%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.06%

     

    Last week looked like a typical last week of the month – flat instead of falling.

     

    This week started with “not so much”. The $0.15 support, which held up much longer than I expected, finally gave way with “high” volume, a lower low, high, VWAP and buy percentage. The Last of the CDEL bid was taken out with a 126,141 share “sell” - 18.67% of the day's volume. It had significant effect on the day's larger trade calculations.

     

    I've recently mentioned in a comment that $0.14 doesn't look like it will offer any serious support and the most likely next support is $0.13xx (~$0.135?). But even that one is not “strong”, just should be stronger support than $0.14. We could get a surprise at $0.13xx though -the 200-day SMA is currently $0.1306 and slowly rising.

     

    Ignoring that, it looks like the real first strong support should be around $0.125 if we get there.

     

    We had a few “outliers” today. The low was set with a single ...

     

    Today the $0.15 bid from CDEL was down to 210.6K right at the open. I had mentioned that it looked like the sellers were still around and the $0.15 was taken out by 10:18, just forty-eight minutes into the session.

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 63 trades, 15.87%. These 337,029 shares were 49.89% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1485. 1 of the larger trades ...

     

    The other 53 trades, 84.13% of the day's trades, traded 338,524 shares, 50.11% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1471. 18 trades, 33.96%, were buys ...

     

    The improved the buy percentage yesterday went up in a wisp of smoke with the higher volume ...

     

    Yesterday I said “So far the typical “stop falling and go flat last week of the month and first week of next month” seems to be playing out. This is one reason I'm not expecting any movement in price in spite of the traditional TA stuff suggesting we should start falling”.

     

    FAIL! The traditional TA stuff had it right. Today all the oscillators I watch are going negative and MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic are oversold now. This normally argues for a bounce, maybe of the “dead cat” variety in our case, but it often takes a while for the bounce to develop. Things can remain in oversold for a while.

     

    After trading completely below the mid-point of the Bollinger range yesterday, we are now “pushing” the lower limit down. Current range ...

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jul, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    ETRF offering 374K @ $0.145.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jul, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    That looks like a pretty solid cap for the day!
    1 Jul, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Have you ever noticed that when you watch the grass grow, you do not notice the growth for awhile. But go away for a week or two and the growth is dramatic.

     

    Or said another way, the Chinese measure their culture in thousands of years, we measure ours in hundreds of years.

     

    Or Rome was not built in a day.

     

    With Axion, I still see nothing which indicates that the technology improvement and potential applications are less than indicated.

     

    So, I may buy a few more shares.
    1 Jul, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Once the raise is over and the NS-999 is declared a success, I can see the stock pricing 10x in a very short period of time. The only reason the stock price is low right now is because nobody wants to take a haircut from the next raise. Nobody is sure there won't be any more raises. But within a few months all this could change, with an uplisting to boot. Thus I see no reason to sell unless you are a good trader are and certain you can time the dips. I slept in on the day BySolar was announced, and I'd never forgive myself if I was out and NSC announced a deal.
    1 Jul, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (335) | Send Message
     
    121

     

    "The less you bet the more you lose when you win."

     

    One of the best quotes of the year

     

    Thank you
    1 Jul, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Exide patent for additives to the NAM.

     

    Advanced graphite additive for enhanced cycle-life of lead-acid batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/1z5mFMT
    1 Jul, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of Exide, the company has postponed their Petition of Reorganization until the end of July. They expect to emerge from BK by the end of 2014.
    1 Jul, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich, I haven't followed them that closely lately but I did see recently where they assigned some high level people to fix their CA recycling plant mess. You do have to wonder if they can ever get that cat back in the bag.
    1 Jul, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    From what I've read over the past few months it seems that Exide is going to keep that recycling plant open. The state has set parameters for fixing it and has come to realize that is not the only source of pollution in the area ... just the most obvious. The city official (or is he county?) that started the most recent complaint has not given up but is a lot less vocal than in the past.
    1 Jul, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your thoughts concerning their position on the facility. It appeared that way to me even before the recent personnel announcement. I think you can't be a large player in the industry, especially automotive, w/o having a level of control over the recycling phase of the loop.

     

    I just saw this announcement as well. It is a somewhat biased article but it does show some shifting in the benefit of exporting e-waste.

     

    EPA Ruling Tightening Export of CRTs a Good Sign for Progress on Spent Battery Exports, RSR Says

     

    http://bit.ly/1rUwQ1Q
    1 Jul, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Where are the viable electric vehicles?

     

    http://exm.nr/1rUznJC
    1 Jul, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • bubbleking
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1rUBqx4

     

    Altoona Works FB update
    1 Jul, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    The update say the battery racks were installed. I wonder if that is racks only, or racks with the batteries in them?
    1 Jul, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    We need one of those wired DOD cockroaches to find out before the just outside the fence rail fans. One thing looks to be true for sure. When this thing hits the wild we're going to know very quickly.
    1 Jul, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    In the last CC Tom said the batteries were on their way to Texas for integration with the racks before the final installation in the NS 999, or something to that effect. My bet is the batteries are in place and ready to go.
    1 Jul, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    If its in paint right now I bet without batteries. Also if you go to AxionPower.com and look at the joint presentation with NSC back from October you will see an description of how the racks are built and allow for easy loading/unloading for maintenance purposes.

     

    Assume the racks hold 6 batteries each it shouldn't really take that long.
    1 Jul, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    If they were painting the insides of the racks, then I would think the wiring harness was not yet installed, and 864 batteries means a LOT of wiring and connections. I'm really hoping the interior of the racks are finished and batteries installed and that they were only doing the paint scheme on the outside of the racks.
    1 Jul, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    "999 is now equipped with remote control."

     

    Would this have anything to do with using the 999 as the test slug for the on the road electric locomotive to be used in conjunction other diesel electric locomotives?
    1 Jul, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    John, TG also said the train would roll the first two week of Jul er June.
    1 Jul, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Rechuckle.
    1 Jul, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    The NS 999 project has taken four years. Do you really think its fair to criticize Granville because somebody else's development timeline slipped?

     

    Hell, I've been consistently wrong about ePowers timeline and I don't think anybody considers me a blithering idiot for not having advance knowledge of things beyond my control that went wrong or simply took longer than I expected.

     

    It's the nature of the beast and you're too smart to take cheap shots at others for things you know they cannot control. Maturity does not have to wait for age 60.
    1 Jul, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    After reading the part about the remote control, I automatically imagined engineers sitting in the yard in lawn chairs making the NS 999 go back and forth.
    1 Jul, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    "Maturity does not have to wait for age 60."

     

    Einstein said that insanity was doing the same thing over and over again ... I keep believing that TG will come through with "significant sales" when he says so over and over again for almost a year. Am I insane?

     

    I know that I am harsh, but once in awhile you should call a spade a spade with respect to Axion. After a decade in development, its getting kinda unacceptable.

     

    ePower has a much shorter operating history with you on board. It's acceptable in that case.

     

    Legal question: at what point does the safe harbor not provide any more protection?
    1 Jul, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >dastar ... Remote control could mean autonomous control from somewhere else like a yard tower. Or your vision could be close to the truth because some diesel slugs can be controlled from the lawn chair. It could just as easily mean that it now has the ability to be controlled from a head engine in a consist.
    1 Jul, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Remote control - at least we have yet another explanation for the delays.
    2 Jul, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (157) | Send Message
     
    Another whine Stefan?
    2 Jul, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> ePower tried other batteries before they chose PbC. Consider how much money they wasted trying at least one wrong possibility before they tried the right one,

     

    ePower 0 - 1 Axion

     

    likewise,

     

    NSC 0 - 1 Axion

     

    My only problem with TG has been his PR skills or even the value he assigns to PR. Part of the reason Axion's PbC is not as successful as it SHOULD be (see above) is because I assume a common reaction on the part of the client is "what's that?" =| (confused face).
    2 Jul, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    "The NS 999 project has taken four years. Do you really think its fair to criticize Granville because somebody else's development timeline slipped?"

     

    Absence of some semblance of a learning curve in 'mature' manager suggests incompetence or premeditation. Damn straight it is fair to criticize Granville for choosing to make unqualified statements about the project when past experience suggests it could well not happen.
    2 Jul, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    What unqualified statements? He was merely relaying what NSC told him. To say otherwise would be wrong. I have always said that TG's problem is not honesty, but delivery. His communication skills stink. He doesn't demand the microphone, and when someone finally puts one in his face he says something boring with a gruff voice. He reminds me of Bruce Willis in The Fifth Element. We don't need that kind of attitude as the face of the company to the investing public, we need Chris Tucker. Common Baby!
    3 Jul, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    "He was merely relaying what NSC told him. To say otherwise would be wrong."

     

    Patrick, we view TG quite differently. TG's cc performances are public negotiations and he is a past grandmaster at choosing and using information available to project the vision his target audience wants to see.
    3 Jul, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Part of mastery in the art of negotiation is never ever tell a deliberate lie. You work with the information that's available to you in constructing and selling a position, but you don't ever deliberately distort that information.
    3 Jul, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8842) | Send Message
     
    Axion article.

     

    New Battery Is Changing the Grid

     

    http://bit.ly/1rUQk6J

     

    And on Facebook for those who have an account give er a like.

     

    http://on.fb.me/1rUQlr8

     

    Edit: Just a reprint of an older article.
    1 Jul, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    The translation of Tom's comment was inscrutable: "In the last few weeks our project engineer for the Norfolk Southern Locomotive project travel to Texas to assist Norfolk Southern and their integrator with the boost charge to our PbC batteries. We shipped the batteries for this project nearly 17 months ago and they have been sitting idle thus the need for charge before they’re shipped in their final container locations to the Norfolk Southern yard, in Juniata."

     

    In their final container locations? In the racks? Who knows?
    1 Jul, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John -
    TG said "In the last few weeks our project engineer for the Norfolk Southern Locomotive project travel to Texas to assist Norfolk Southern and their integrator with the boost charge to our PbC batteries. We shipped the batteries for this project nearly 17 months ago and they have been sitting idle thus the need for charge before they’re shipped in their final container locations to the Norfolk Southern yard, in Juniata."

     

    This group has been collecting technical information on the performance of the PbC battery for many years and I have been a follower for just a few months so it is very difficult for me to know what is known and what is not.
    So may I ask if it known to this group:
    - what the self discharge rate of a PbC battery is;
    - what the consequences of a PbC battery lying unattended for 17 months might be;
    - what the algorithm of the "boost charge" cycle for a PbC battery looks like;
    - what the down side of such a boost charge is for a PbC battery;
    - what the overall consequences might be for this 17 months of PbC battery neglect? (I use the word neglect in its technical sense and not as any form of implied criticism.)

     

    The above information is available for VRLA batteries.
    1 Jul, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    You can ask but I'm not sure that anybody will climb out on a limb to offer answers because to the best of my knowledge Axion hasn't published those specifications.

     

    It's widely known in these quarters that the self discharge rate on the PbC's capacitive energy storage is fairly high, although I don't know of anyone who would venture a guess on a specific number.

     

    Many (including me) were more than a little surprised to learn that NS and Axion had concluded that 864 batteries could be brought back to an acceptable state of health after sitting idle for 17 months. Since we've never seen NS cut any corners in connection with an evaluation of the PbC that's taken twice as long as the original NS 999 development project did, I'm pretty confident that their engineering staff has no major concerns with the rejuvenation process and while Axion hasn't released any data, the vote of confidence from NS speaks volumes.
    1 Jul, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    pbcb - Just about every imaginable bit of data is available for lead-acid batteries. They've been around forever. You can put a pair of calipers on a positive plate and pre-order your next battery within a couple of months of the stated design life.

     

    Suggesting that this sort of data should be available for a totally new energy storage device that has just sat 17 months is another clear sign of your technical ignorance and your queerly-motivated penchant for fault-finding.
    1 Jul, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John,
    You say "... Axion hasn't published those specifications." and this is exactly my point. Any system integrator looking at alternative battery storage systems and technologies wants some basic information and if that information is not available from the producer of that technology it may then be assumed that; a) the information does not exist, which would imply that the technology was too early in development to be seriously considered as a candidate or b) the information is so bad that the producers are too embarrassed to publish it. In either case that technology is likely to be dismissed out of hand. With good reason I feel that neither a) nor b) is the case and that Axion is simply missing the Marketeering Boat by hiding this PbC battery under a rug.
    1 Jul, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Since I haven't worked in tangible product sales for decades I don't have an opinion on what it takes to sell a product like the PbC. Speaking as an officer of a customer, however, I'd rate the sales and engineering support as superb.
    1 Jul, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Edmund,
    - In all probability Brian Conway determined the inherent self discharge rate of this class of energy storage device back in 2004. It is an easy determination that in the case of the PbC takes only weeks to ascertain and extrapolate.
    - The problems caused by battery neglect are well recognized in this industry and Axion's engineers no doubt understood the potential risks back in 2006 when they started building real PbC batteries and it is likely that they either intentionally or inadvertently neglected some batteries that later displayed early signs of failure. Good engineers know that product failures are their best sources of learning and they treat the failed devices like gold, conducting comprehensive autopsies and in depth examinations to learn how and why things went a muck. Axion has had good engineers from day one - that's ten years of extensive learning.
    - the Boost Charge algorithm is a bread and butter item for this class of device and it was no doubt developed and understood by Axion's engineers no less than six years ago. You have probably read the name Bob Nelson, PhD in association with Axion. He is one of the 'fathers' of VRLA technology and public records show that he worked for Axion for quite a while. Why do you think Axion hired him?
    - the down side of a boost charge is without a doubt clearly understood by Axion's engineers.
    - what the overall consequences might be for this 17 months of PbC battery neglect are also without a doubt understood by Axion's engineers.
    Edmund, I have been and remain very complimentary of Axion's technical expertise and their understanding of this PbC battery but I am at the same time very critical of their predisposition for keeping that expertise and understanding so hidden from the vast majority of the world wide population of integration engineers who might have a use for this PbC battery and its special attributes. My contention is that no properly qualified marketeer would have hidden this PbC gem under a rug the way Axion has done and I think that my opinion is supported by their failure to generate the PbC revenues that they have promised during the course of these past six or seven years. Yes Edmund, I am critical of Axion's failure to produce PbC revenues as promised and I believe that their air of secrecy and their apparent inability to communicate the PbC technology message openly, and effectively is at the heart of Axion's problem.
    As I have previously said, I hope that with this next round of funding comes a major improvement in the marketing side of this corporate equation. To continue with more of the same would, by Einstein's definition, be insane.
    1 Jul, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    The questions you asked had essentially zero marketing relevance for the PbC. It's not like folks are going to compare the boost charge algorithms for a PbC to determine whether to buy one or not. "Nah - nevermind, I don't like the boost charge algorithm - I'll go with the Wal-Mart special."

     

    "Oh geez, you say there might be consequences if it sits for 17 months? Where's the nearest Wal-Mart?"

     

    Next time you're preparing a post and find yourself wrapping it up with: "As I have previously said....", consider this: You already said that and we already heard it.
    1 Jul, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, You obviously have no real interest in the detailed inner workings of this device and that does not make you a bad person. On the other hand those who make the choices between competing technologies for big dollar projects that determine the fate of their employers and the fate of their products do pay very close attention to the detailed battery performance characteristics under a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. Axion is not looking to sell this PbC product to a consumers like yourself who thinks in terms of what they can buy at Walmart, they are dealing with highly trained engineering types who fully understand that in such decisions "the Devil is in the Details".
    2 Jul, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    That's not even a good try at deflecting, pbcb. I finally lay some sarcasm on you and you totally missed it.
    I have a much better grasp on the inner workings of the PbC than yourself; that's obvious (not only to me) on the basis of your historical commentary here.

     

    Let's go back and review your words which formed the origin of this thread, pbcb. Your volunteered admission of ignorance is an appropriate start:
    "This group has been collecting technical information on the performance of the PbC battery for many years and I have been a follower for just a few months so it is very difficult for me to know what is known and what is not."

     

    We don't need to repeat all your questions, just a couple will do:
    "So may I ask if it known to this group:
    ...
    - what the consequences of a PbC battery lying unattended for 17 months might be;
    ...
    ...
    - what the overall consequences might be for this 17 months of PbC battery neglect?"

     

    Yet again, you show an extraordinary penchant for repeating yourself.

     

    Finally your claim:
    "The above information is available for VRLA batteries."

     

    pbcb: Please produce the data for the 17-month VRLA. And take your time in getting back to me.
    2 Jul, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Axion has obviously published very little in the way of PbC battery specifications, manuals, white papers etc. and therefore in truth you "know" very little about theses devices. You personally have no "need to know" so that's of no consequence whatever to Axion, but the engineers employed by the as yet unknown prospective customers of Axion DO HAVE A NEED TO KNOW and that has been and remains of consequence to Axion. You can't introduce a new technology to the world by hiding the full engineering truths about it under a rug.
    2 Jul, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    pbcb, I'm willing to wait 17 months.
    2 Jul, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    PbC Believer> While you and I spend our fair share of time butting heads, I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that Axion should make more detailed information available to the public in the form of white papers, specification sheets and other materials.

     

    While I don't think Axion makes enough technical data available to the public, I have to say that I feel the same way about everybody in the business. The information other battery manufacturers publish is usually incomplete and its almost impossible to do reasonable comparisons between Alternative A and Alternative B using published data. It's like A is making technical disclosures in Swahili while B is making them in Kurdish and they're both using English for PR.

     

    I find the whole arena of technical disclosure in the battery industry tremendously frustrating and while Axion is terrible when it comes to public disclosure of relevant technical data, I'm not sure that anybody else in the business is better. Most of the materials I've reviewed over the last six years are data light puff pieces.
    2 Jul, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Edmund - Start with this study. If you are a member it costs just $13.
    http://bit.ly/1sX66Cd
    2 Jul, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    Comes up short, pbcb - only 12 months storage - lucky you, though, I gave you 17!
    2 Jul, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, For some strange reason I thought you had a serious interest in this subject but apparently not. Have a nice day.
    2 Jul, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    I didn't download the study report because I have a long standing rule against buying data. That being said, I will note that the authors of the study you cited had to buy cells from 5 different manufacturers and spend a year doing their own testing to collect the kind of information you criticize Axion for not publishing.

     

    In my perfect dream world every battery manufacturer would be fully transparent about the specifications for their products so that a humble researcher could do reasonable comparisons between alternatives. The gulf between my perfect dream world and the world we live in is an interstellar void.
    2 Jul, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    It is pretty easy to get data for lithium cells. For just about any cell, you can find cycle life data and discharge curves for different rates of discharge. I'm not sure why the lead battery industry can't do the same.
    2 Jul, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29554) | Send Message
     
    Neither am I. The lead-acid battery is a quintessential commodity product where there is little or no variation among manufacturers. Why everybody wants to keep their details a state secret is beyond me.
    2 Jul, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John, I have no idea where you have been looking for VRLA product specs but just for a start please go to this site below and wander around.

     

    http://bit.ly/1rYrlPJ

     

    The Publication No: US-NP-AM-003 • January 2011 • titled "BATTERY APPLICATION MANUAL for
    Genesis® NP and NPX Series" is a good example of what kind of broad information is generally available and with very little digging there are gigabytes or performance test data to be had about VRLA batteries for free.

     

    John, this next website is a true encyclopedia of very useful information in a totally readable form that any interested techie type regardless of training can digest.
    http://www.mpoweruk.com

     

    - Axion must come to grips with the fact that they compete in a real world where real product data is available. If a battery company has no battery specifications then what is it that they are attempting to sell?
    2 Jul, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    I think the lack of data arises from fact that lead acid batteries are mainly for the automotive application, where discharge curves and cycle life data are unimportant. It's not a secret, it's irrelevant. They say 60 on them and that's what you'll get and that's all you need to know. It has been a long time since it mattered who made your car battery - they are all about as good as they can get.
    Lithium batteries are entirely different - it makes a great deal of difference, the quality is highly variable, folks are trying to distinguish themselves and that data can make a difference.
    2 Jul, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Edmund - Here is some advertised VRLA deep cycle data. Can you tell me why Axion's PbC group 27 and 30ht batteries have not been able to compete with these Trojans in for instance the pleasure-boat market?

     

    http://bit.ly/1rYHtAI
    2 Jul, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    pbcb, For the pleasure-craft market, I don't see a weakness in the Trojan that the PbC is equipped to exploit. The $240 100-Ah deep-cycle 31-AGM is a good fit for the intended use.
    2 Jul, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17298) | Send Message
     
    And the boats electrics are designed to work with that battery, which won't have the same voltage drop as it is discharged.

     

    As JP has mentioned, PbC is no drop-in replacement, as almost all of us know.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jul, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, Boaters often run their engines/generators just to charge the batteries and everyone hates the sound and smell of those engines (particularly the 25 -50 foot sailing yachts), so if the batteries could be recharged in say 1/4 the time they'd love it and perhaps they'd pay for it. Boaters are used to paying high prices for everything so why not a fancy new technology battery that charges in 1/4 the time and lasts 5x as long to boot? Reliability is a high priority on every boater's mind - if it lasts 5x the time it is 1/5 the risk of going dead.

     

    What other reasons do you see?
    2 Jul, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    PbC - I agree, the rapid charge ability is highly valuable to boaters and off-grid users. It is a shame this market has been ignored by Axion. A relatively minor piece of equipment (DC-DC stabilized power supply) is all that is needed to make it compatible with 12 v systems.
    2 Jul, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Rick - I agree and during the initial promotion period you give the DC-DC stabilized power supply to the customer perhaps for free at first and then at 50% of cost then at cost. It's like the Gillette razor story.

     

    The energy density of the PbC us about half that of the VRLA but it can be routinely discharged to 80% DOD without harming the battery while the VRLA starts getting badly damaged at 50% and maybe there is a better charge algorithm for that PbC as well. Who knows what Axion's recommended charge algorithm is or just how optimized it may or may not be?

     

    The boat may still need one LAB starter battery kept at full charge to crank the engines.
    2 Jul, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    "The energy density of the PbC us about half that of the VRLA ...."

     

    Isn't the energy density of the PbC relative to conventional VRLA proportional to relative Pb contents? If so, energy storage capacity of PbC would be ~ 70% of conventional VRLA.
    2 Jul, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1460) | Send Message
     
    OK, I'm cool with that. Rick, can you provide make, model and price for the necessary piece of equipment? And would you think 2 or 3 30HT PbCs will be enough to produce the same amp-hours as the 31-AGM Trojan? Or how would you put it together? I'd like to learn something new. Not familiar with DC-DC stabilized power supplies. Have to be easier to learn about than the "DC-DC inverter" PbCb was browbeating us with in an earlier session.
    2 Jul, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John et al,
    I've been wondering about this for awhile. I'm not a mechanical or electrical engineer, so I don't understand capacitors (super or ultra), but I've wondered if the reason why the PbC could withstand this length of discharge time is due to the static charge on the carbon electrode? Is it possible that the lead electrode would continue to discharge down until it reached the charge that is normally held on the carbon electrode, and then be held in equilibrium from there?

     

    Any electrical engineers in the group want to tell me why I'm totally wrong??
    2 Jul, 04:53 PM Reply Like