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  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    First? Woo hoo!
    3 Jul 2014, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    999 is out of the shop and classified as "rebuilt"!

     

    Is the train fixin to leave the station??

     

    http://bit.ly/INYJCZ
    3 Jul 2014, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Years and years of silently waiting have finally paid off. I have finally achieved my only reason for reading day after day after day after day...

     

    We're not here for anything else are we?
    3 Jul 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >AWOL Engineer ... Seeing that locomotive roll is top of my list. ePower is a close second with me but, to be honest, I'd thought about that application but didn't know anybody was actually working on it until John brought it up.

     

    Now, where is that marine application I've daydreamed about?
    3 Jul 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    I agree, seeing that engine will make things far less stressful. Does anyoneone know a custom HO scale builder that can make the 999? I'll take at least one!

     

    I too have spent countless hours trying to figure out a marine solution. Even tried thinking of the so called "included in the case converter". If either was simple enough the applications become endless. The product would sell itself with a bit of marketing.
    3 Jul 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >AWOL Engineer ... To my knowledge, only Lionel has ever modeled it but didn't put the 999 designation on the unit. Besides, it is an old out-of-date NS999 v1.0 model

     

    http://bit.ly/1s2YCtb
    3 Jul 2014, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    "$319.99 – see your dealer and order yours today."
    I don't have a dealer, and the one I talked to said, "get lost narc." So confusing.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (204) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357 is this a new statement? If so then exciting that it has been officially built. How excited should I be? Need to pee-pee excited or all-you-can-eat buffet excited?
    3 Jul 2014, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (501) | Send Message
     
    Before you change your pants, please put in a buy order at a higher than market price.
    3 Jul 2014, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    If the R/S, Financing, and Uplisting are all to be part of a package deal, then my guess is that it won't happen until Q4.

     

    What worries me most is the financing part. From where we sit today, unless prospective investors are getting inside information (which I doubt), I just don't see what Axion has to offer that would make a good financing case to anyone that would qualify as a "strategic partner" without something to sweeten the deal. So, they either need to either (1) wait for good sales news to excite potential investors, (2) suffer another round with vulture investors, or (3) come up with some other kind of deal sweetener that would interest a strategic partner.

     

    With regard to (3), the only potential deal sweetener I can think of is control of the company and/or its technology.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    The piece of the puzzle you're missing is the backlog of failure to perform or failure to sufficiently reduce costs on the part of every competing technology. To the investing community "battery company" may as well read "snake oil salesman". WHEN, not if, the investing community finally sees that PbC is a commercial product with a very attractive IRR in a number of applications, particularly emerging applications that will experience 70%+ CAGR for the next decade, hold on to your hats.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    If Axion comes over with a design win from NS-999, virtually guaranteeing ROI, wouldn't you jump all over that as an investor? We're at the cusp of that happening, and yet the APC has never been so negative.

     

    On the other hand the 360k ask has just been removed.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    PY. Those things were true last year and we ended up with the PIPE deal. Now, one year, $8M in spending, and several missed projections later, what more does Axion have to offer? Can you honestly say the outlook for increased sales is any better than it was last year? If so, in what ways? Let's hope that improves between now and the R/S.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    When AXPW hits primetime, why don't we all band together and form a PIPE investor group? It'll be easy money and sweet revenge. We'll have our cake and eat it too!
    3 Jul 2014, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I expect a deal to close in Q3 because September is historically one of the best months for closing financing transactions. Companies spend the entire summer structuring their deals and pitching investors and then things close when everybody gets back from vacation. Q4 is more difficult because October is a historically spooky month and by the time November gets rolling investors start getting distracted with holiday plans.

     

    Companies in Axion's stage of development attract investors with potential, rather than dependable future revenue, so the path is far more important than the signed contracts. The NS 999 will be one clear path now that it's finally out of the shop. With good results (cross fingers) ePower will be another independent path. A couple more stationary sales will confirm a third independent path. The odds that all three paths will be dead ends are very remote. None of the paths were clear last spring when the PIPE was apparently the best available option.

     

    Axionistas live in fear because they've suffered through four years of daily beatings. While I believe there are no more big blocks that can bedevil the market in the future, Axion knows for sure and will be able to prove it to their investment bankers using data gathered in connection with the Consent solicitation. New investors who haven't suffered the pain and are comfortable with the revenue paths and new supply and demand realities will normally be far less timid.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> "Have your cake and eat it too". LOL. I suggest we form Axion Capital Partners, based out of the Caribbean somewhere, not because I'm trying to dodge taxes, but because I like the climate and Florida stinks.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    JP. All three of those three things will need to firm up in the next two months to get us in a good position for a $.35 share price and a good financing deal by Q3. I am not optimistic for the following reasons: NSC has not given any indication that electric switchers or electric OTR are being given any kind of priority. Significant ales to them are still two or more years off. ePower is still in prototyping and, although you might argue otherwise, still a risky bet at this point. I actually do expect they might sell a few more Power Cubes this summer, but I don't see a path to profitability in sporadic PC sales.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Nogoodslacker> These things were true four years ago too. It only takes a good knowledge of chemistry and physics and an inquisitive mind. Finance people may be smooth talkers but they are as dumb as a stump. I doubt they could tell you why there are seasons, or the function of your kidneys. They are just hungry hippos that start munching when the balls are rolling on the board, reactionary.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    So far, it's been a non-profit called Philanthropic believers in Carbon. 8^P
    3 Jul 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    PY. Exactly my point. If nothing is different this year, we should expect the same as we got in previous years: continued cash burn, decreasing market cap, and another round or 50% dilution. To get any better kind of result, something needs to change, like maybe sell some batteries?
    3 Jul 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Billion003
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,
    I'm waiting for the new issuance numbers.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    LOL hungry hippos is apt!

     

    NGS, PY's point is that Axion has received MUCH better financings in the past when they were further from the goal. Now they are very close. It shows that financing is as much about the seasons as about your business.

     

    2014 is showing a peak in financings, M&A's, IPO's. The market is hot.

     

    I think the chance of scoring a trifecta now is very real.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    NGS> Your premise is wrong. Axion could raise more cash and burn more cash this year than ever before and the price could still end up 10X higher.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    If free cash flows and sales are your only metrics of company success, then maybe you should invest in the blue chips.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    PY. Good bless you sir. I admire your positive outlook. All I want to see is that there is a PATH to profitability that could reasonably occur before having to go through two more capital raises.

     

    (P.S. I do invest in blue chips and doing nicely on those lately.)
    3 Jul 2014, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Hey ... we've reduced cash burn by not hiring a CFO ... hope they got a deal on "Bob" ...
    3 Jul 2014, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "NSC has not given any indication that electric switchers or electric OTR are being given any kind of priority. Significant ales to them are still two or more years off."

     

    Not sure I concur, ngs, as I rather strongly suspect much of the system-wide capital spending (communication upgrades, track rehabilitation, inter-modal container shipping, etc.) undertaken by Norfolk Southern over the past five years or so will yield its greatest ROI with successful implementation of electric OTR locomotives and switchers. And, what is "significant sales" to NSC lies in the eye of the beholder. I believe that ANY follow on order from NSC for PbCs within the next few months would be viewed as significant to many investors. Otherwise, I would be an ex-AXPW shareholder.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    So that was interesting. Our big block guy shows up at .145 USD and then pulls the order before any executions. Hmmm
    3 Jul 2014, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Likely because the "fishing lures" trades at $0.1449 for 500, 100 and 100 shares worked and a 7K trade went off at that price. Seller may be thinking more appreciation is possible.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2014, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I propose adopting BBG for our "big block guy" shorthand to confuse the soon to come Johnny-Come-Lately types.

     

    Although Urban Dictionary is providing quite a bit of competition:

     

    http://bit.ly/1s3h590
    3 Jul 2014, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. We'll likely never know but it sure appears some funny stuff is going on. Does that happen in the markets? lol
    -
    WTB, Since most of the other meanings were feminine at your site maybe we otta go with "Big Block Girl". Or we can use "Big Block Gremlin" per your site! Gremlins and trolls, Axionistas have their fare share.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's a good article today on SA dealing with the risks and opportunities of PLUG, a fuel cell company that's developing a technology that's far more complex than the PbC and frankly doesn't have as much potential – http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I found the share count graph in the article fascinating. In early 2012 PLUG had 18 million shares out and traded in the $2 range. Since then the share count has soared to 144 million and after spending most of 2013 in the dumpster the stock price has recovered into the $4 range.

     

    Plug's Q1 revenue was about 2X Axion's and its Q1 operating loss was about 3.5X Axion's. Plug currently has a market cap of ~$600 million while Axion has a market cap of ~$33 million. The only difference I can see is that Plug has a clearer path, although frankly its not a path that excites me.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    +++++++John Petersen++++++++++ Thank you.

     

    This is what I'm saying, AXPW is PLUG, with a bigger market.

     

    I even considered investing in PLUG when it was bumping around 15 cents but I don't like the fact that they don't have any claim to fuel cell technology and there are a lot of players and potential tech-upgrades that would disrupt the technology in the future. Not so for PbC and lead-acid chemistry in general.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Them finance stumps like the sound of fuel cells though!

     

    I agree with Rick that the PbC is an ineffective marketing name. It may be descriptive for the engineer type, but doesn't suggest a tech breakthrough. Heck, it doesn't even differentiate itself from carbon paste batteries.

     

    Should call it the Energizer Carbon. It just keeps charging, and discharging, and charging...
    3 Jul 2014, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    John, I think one difference which PLUG has going for it, which we unfortunately do not (at this time anyway) is that fuel cells are tres cool, while we (lead-acid 3.0) demonstrably aren't.

     

    However unfairly, PLUG and its ilk capture the public imagination. That seems to be worth a lot in this world...

     

    Adlai Stevenson when told that he had the votes of thinking people all over the country, is quoted to have said something to the effect of "Well, that's nice, but what I need is a majority..."

     

    It seems like all the while we've been having the same problem, your herculean blogging efforts notwithstanding
    3 Jul 2014, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    Axion tries to sell a battery, which it is, and incidentally has an integrated supercapacitor when marketing ought to push the supercapacitor, which incidentally is attached to a battery (but we won't mention that). There is no difference in the device but a world of difference to an ignorant investing public that is looking for New Technology.

     

    Then Maxwell might be recognized of Axion's competition by the public, not Exide or A123. Wouldn't change a thing except perceptions
    3 Jul 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    DRich, you hit the nail on the head. Perception is huge for any stock, but especially a high risk/reward one like AXPW. I hope that right after the upcoming raise Granville finally feels that he has the money to crank up the marketing machine---both product and stock. Hire those marketing/sales/biz development guys for PC like he talked about, for example, and hire a good stk promoter.

     

    There are some major catalysts that the company still thinks are coming. Leverage those events up the yin yang. This treading water stuff sucks for everyone.

     

    http://bit.ly/1s3vyBR
    3 Jul 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Billion003
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    "Super Carbon"
    3 Jul 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    Also you should listen/watch their CEO and ask if "marketing" helps marketcap.
    4 Jul 2014, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • 212138
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, you're onto something!
    4 Jul 2014, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Let me try to illustrate this differently for the sales-addicts: I have 1 million shares. (Lets ignore the RS for now because it is immaterial). I believe that one day in the distant future Axion Power will be able to make at least $200 million in profit. That's $1 a share with 200 million shares, and 20 cents a share with 1 billion shares, which means that I could be earning anywhere from $200,000 to $1,000,000 a year if it were all paid as dividends on a $100,000 investment I made "way-back-when". Thing is, the market will quickly make it impossible for future investors to realize these kinds of yields.

     

    Like I said before, hold on to your hats kids.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    I can potentially see Axion having $200M in total revenues in the distant future, but no way that much in profit--not on PbC electrode sales anyway.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    A company I often compare Axion's future to is Polypore (PPO). They make membranes for separation and filtration for building lithium batteries. Essentially a component supplier to the Li industry.

     

    If lead-carbon becomes as widely used as lithium, and Axion supplies the electrodes, AXPW would be valued like PPO.

     

    PPO now sports over 2b market cap with under 100m profit per year.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    NGS> ~5 million batteries a year at a cost of ~$250 per battery and a ~15% margin = $200 million in profit.

     

    5 million lead-carbon batteries a year is not crazy. In fact it may be a wild underestimate.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    PY. 5 million batteries per year? Maybe someday, but for now it seems we are still at least two cap raises away from getting to even 100k batteries per year.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Two cap raises in a worst case scenario is roughly 880 million shares (double shares each time). That still puts PY's profit at a very high level.

     

    It all depends on the investor. If you have 1 million shares you cannot easily get in and out of, you have to take a stand and buy in early. If you have 75k shares, you can afford to be choosey.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, those two cap raises don't get us to 5 million batteries per year. It only gets us to 100k batteries per year and that is being optimistic. 100k batteries would be something like 1,000 ePower trucks, 10 NSC yard slugs or battery OTRs, and 20 MW of Power cubes. Using Patrick's numbers, that's only $3.7 million in profit, divided into your 880 million shares. Forgive me if I don't envision strategic investors lining up for that.

     

    How do you see getting to 5 million batteries within the next three years? Maybe I'm missing something.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... If Axion could get to 100k batteries per year we certainly would see a share price appreciation far beyond a market capital comparison. The Market craves growth and it is what people are willing to pay for.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I agree. I even think 100k batteries is doable within 3 years plus or minus. That is why I still hold shares. But 5 million batteries? I want to smoke some of that good stuff.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    NGS, at 100k batteries Axion would reach breakeven. That is achievable in the very near future. Once there, 5 million batteries can take its sweet time.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    Not quite sure if 100k batteries is enough to reach breakeven. It would be $30M in total revenue, so it might cover the cash burn rate if they have high margins of around 30%. Margins probably aren't that high, but it would be close enough for me.

     

    So let's say at that point the $30M in revenue can justify a market cap of $300M. With 880M shares, that gives us $0.35/share. So, there is decent share price appreciation to be had, and that is why I still hold the stock. But I no longer have any dreams of a 10 bagger on this one.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... Mr. Market would not be looking at market cap if Axion were building 100k units. Mr. Market would be looking at potential & addressable consumer market growth. Axion would have grown a PEG.
    3 Jul 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    "NGS, at 100k batteries Axion would reach breakeven. That is achievable in the very near future. Once there, 5 million batteries can take its sweet time."
    ---
    Ranma, what you wrote is exactly what has kept me invested despite all the ongoing angst. I also believe breakeven (or even the reasonable prospect of breakeven) could happen at just about any time.

     

    ISTM that would almost immediately eliminate the need for future "survival" financing. And once that realization settles in, the Mkt. Cap will quickly begin to reflect Axion's true value, which I believe is at least 3x more than it currently is.

     

    Once that happens, I'm with you that greater things can take their sweet time. As my wife mentioned a couple days ago after I again asked her if she had any interest in reducing her holdings: -- "I think I'll wait for another five years and see how things are looking then". --- (She helps keep me grounded sometimes). ;)
    3 Jul 2014, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    I believe margins are at least that high but John would know for sure. Consider that a PbC sells for 350, but an AGM sells for under 200. A normal LAB under 100. The PbC has half the lead but activated carbon + processing.

     

    ISTM that the total cost of the PbC should be comparable to an AGM, which retails at 200. If we consider that the PbC is built inefficiently, call the cost at 250. That still leaves 100 per battery.

     

    In addition, much of the cost are costs Axion has to pay anyway, like capital equipment, lease, R&D, and even some retained labor. So even if margins aren't great, they still make an outsized impact by being non-negative.
    3 Jul 2014, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Not quite sure if 100k batteries is enough to reach breakeven."

     

    Al Marshall has generated a spreadsheet model for us, suggesting a 25% profit margin. Using battery sales to ePower Engine Systems (~$360) as a pricing point, gross profit would amount to $90/PbC. Battery sales of 7,800/mon (~94k/yr) would generate $700K month gross profit or enough to cover operating expenses of $2.1 mil/qtr with annual revenue of $33.8 mil.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1295) | Send Message
     
    Al's spreadsheet sounds as good a guess as any. I suspect operating expense would go up a bit from the present burn rate if they were producing 100k batteries per year, but that might be offset by cost of goods if they are buying in greater bulk.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Remember that the aim is to produce the electrodes and not the batteries.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and I imagine after maxing out electrode capacity in house, a license agreement (once you have enough clout to protect your property) would be essentially 100% profit margin.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Axion has a patented negative electrode, but they also have a patented positive electrode. IMO, what Axion would be looking for is a manufacturer to put six completed Axion multi-plate single-cell devices into a case, then strap them together and add the electrolyte.

     

    I think it will be awhile before Axion will be selling just negative electrodes. Not sure I quite understand the risk vs benefit of doing so anyway.
    3 Jul 2014, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    PY,

     

    That would imply many Billions of top line. Lets get past a few Million in PbC sales first. I'd settle for 200M top line at this point.
    4 Jul 2014, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    ngs,

     

    A lot of it depends on what this Summer's placement goes off at and for how much. Imagine if Axion raises 15-20M at 10 cents. Then share count already is through the roof - but if they can prop up price and do a raise at 30 cents, maybe the 2015/16 raise can be closer to a dollar thus Axion can exit the death spiral.
    4 Jul 2014, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    PY et.al - Axion is limited to some 100,000 to 500,000 PbC batteries annually depending on the number of lines producing PbC's and number of shifts per day.

     

    After that, they will be generating revenue based on the sales of PbC negative electrodes and/or be receiving royalties from the huge Pb manufactures: either way, revenues to Axion based on the mix with or beyond their own production basically reduces gross revenue; as for margins and net profits, they also increase according to the mix of huge volume PbC production by others.

     

    What's key is the first step, maxium production with existing facilites: 100,000 PbC's per year would be sweet, but unless it happens really soon with a defind pathway, it's desert time.

     

    Also, it's not the PbC that is going to generate sales; it's the application. Just as anyone trying to sell Polypore separators: essentially worthless, without an application such as batteries.

     

    So any one of the three potential applications could be a real turn on, evidenced by some real application data.

     

    Furthermore, when I reviewed some of JP's questionable 54,000+ followers a few days ago, I noticed that over 1000 of those folks are Fund Managers/Fund Partners, and another 300 folks are Corporate Finance guys, etc. I'm sure some of these folks are active readers of JP, and some may be or are CONNECTED. Either waiting or wanting to gobble up AXPW or preparing to fund it - now, it's your guess, or bet.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Wow, did you really review 54,000 followers? Did you do it manually, do a statistical sample, or write a program? Curious.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    Ranma - no, I'm an AXPW investor!

     

    SA permits you to sort "followers" by a variety of groups; so I did.

     

    The number of pages per group times 15 names per page gives the total number of names.

     

    I knew I was a very early follower of JP, so I scanned the earliest pages and found my name on the 6th page (3388) out of some 3394 pages; or the earliest 0.2%.

     

    So, I scanned 90 names out of 54,000+ to find my name.

     

    Here's that post:

     

    Axion Power Concentrator 344 June 26 '14: Definitive Reverse Split Consent Solicitation; Q1 '1 CC Transcript & MP3 Available; Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order [View instapost]

     

    John - horn-tooting time.

     

    "Over the last six years I've built a huge following that includes names that shock me to the core."

     

    Now then, not that my name should be included in that group of folks, but curiosity got to me so I looked at your 54000 followers "most recent", 3394 pages of them, and I'm on page 3388, within the earliest 0.2% of followers. Toot!

     

    Confession time re. another of your nearby comments: technical performance suggestions made by me regarding ePowerengines downstream refinements were first made to Jay long before they appeared in the comments sections of your articles (And I won't repeat them here).

     

    I remember a fellow once saying that he writes for SA to get the attention of folks interested in his then (and now?) day job.

     

    Peace.

     

    PS - the proof of my interest in the value of your pennings and knowledge of the industry(ies) we hold in common interest is in the 99.8% longevity fact.

     

    Yes, there were several folks prior to me that are still around; yet, overall, many of greater shock value, thank goodness.

     

    Jun 29 07:15 PM|3 LikesLike
    4 Jul 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    24 consecutive 100 share trades at $0.1459 from 11:40 through 11:56.

     

    Fisherman busy this A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2014, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Nice paint job there at the end HTL.
    3 Jul 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I wonder what next week will bring??

     

    Have a great July 4th weekend!

     

    Enjoy
    3 Jul 2014, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: something more than paint going on though. At the end, bigger buys - 5.6K, ~3.4K, 20K and 2K(2) to close it out, followed by a few small trades. And these "larger" trades were at slowly climbing price, hitting $0.146 and $0.1475. The few smaller ones following went at $0.1499.

     

    I think this is the strangest trading day I've seen. From 11:40 through the close, 48 of 59 trades were for 100 shares. All the 100 share trades were buys hitting the offer.

     

    Before 11:40, roughly 1/7th (14.12%) were buys. At EOD we had roughly 1/3rd (33.87%) "buys". VWAP went from $0.1421 to $0.1430 at EOD.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Shortened pre-holiday trading can do some odd things. With low volume like we're seeing it doesn't take much of a change in group attention to see a shift.
    3 Jul 2014, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Who/what buys that many 100 share trades in a $.15 stock? Especially since we have not witnessed this prior in this stock, somebody new coming in with some form of a testing strategy?
    3 Jul 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357

     

    It used to happen all the time a couple of years ago. Just not so many back to back 100s.

     

    It is probably a market maker trying to tease stockholders into making a move on a price run. I don't think they have to pay commissions like you and me.
    3 Jul 2014, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    jveal,

     

    Possibly. I think something is up as I believe everything is for a reason! I don't believe it is retail since the commissions would be cost prohibitive? Someone is testing or ???
    3 Jul 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: JVeal could be right, but usually they do just onesies and twosies with some spacing in between. He's right they don't pay commissions.

     

    I'm wondering if multiple folks are playing the RS? They may have low-fee brokers? If there's big news before the RS date is set a bump in price would be likely. As the up-listing nears there would be another price rise likely? They may judge that the new issues will not be at a deep discount?

     

    The risk is very small, but so is the potential gain I think.

     

    It somehow seems unlikely this is what's going on though.

     

    I'm leaning towards a mutation of JVeal's thought - a single small buy order at one of the MMs that is parceled out by the MM to give the appearance of buying activity at prices well above the lows.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jul 2014, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: Started working Thursday's stuff and that prompted another supposition. From the open through 11:39, just before the long string of 100-share "buys" began, we had dropped from a high of $0.1459 to $0.14 w/o a bottom in sight. That was twenty trades, of which only six were buys. We had opened the day at $0.1449, climbed to $0.1459 by the sixth trade at 10:42 and began to tank from there.

     

    Through those first six trades, ending at 10:42, 17,700 of 20,200 trades were buys, 87.62%. From then through 11:39, when the nadir of $0.14 was firmly in place (four trades at $0.14 with two at $0.1401), of fourteen trades only one was a buy (100 shares). 105,800 shares of the 105,900 traded were "sells", 99.91%.

     

    After that point is when the string of 100-share "buys" began.

     

    With VWAP of the prior three days, oldest first, being $0.1478, $0.1411 and $0.1447, and knowing that it's likely that during those days the MMs *probably* did a few covering buys here and there, and there was decent volume two of those days, 675K, 326K, 73K, and the short percentages were 11.83%, 27.57% and 51.92% ...

     

    There was probably some shares, already covered by the MM, backing prior sell orders flowing into MM control as settlements occurred, leaving an MM short-term long with an opportunity for additional "free" profit if the market could be held in a higher price range.

     

    These trades may have been the MM holding the market up.

     

    I can't say this is why we saw the behavior we did, but from my understanding of the mechanics of the market-making, it seems one of the plausible scenarios.

     

    If this is the case, I would expect no more than one more day of this sort of behavior, and likely not even that, because the volume today was low and the majority of "to be settled" trades from the two higher volume days should be about done.

     

    In ignorance as always,
    HardToLove
    4 Jul 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Thank you for your thoughts, always appreciated.

     

    This past week or so I have had a few conversations with some people thinking that they need to finish buying their last few shares of AXPW before the stock starts to "fly"! They are of the opinion that the stock has found its bottom and that the future is going to be brighter than the present. Mind you that these folks don't follow the story near as closely as the Axionistas and don't read the concentrators either. I am thinking that might give them an advantage in regards to being able to feel more optimistic! If one studies too deeply and intensely and reads every post in the concentrator one could easily get overwhelmed with negative thoughts, especially with all the silence coming out of New Castle along with the tick tock of the clock. I did not offer my opinion as I am currently neutral in regards to suggesting Axion stock during this chapter in the story.

     

    I just wonder how many others are out there at a distance only watching the stock price, not the daily rhetoric? These are smaller positions with smaller share block purchases. I wonder how many more would jump in once the stock starts its move upward a bit?

     

    Happy July 4th to You
    4 Jul 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    Just stopped by to see if the same 'nay-sayers' still held sway here. I see nothing material has changed. Hope everyone has a peaceful and safe 4th (at least, those of you for whom American holidays are meaningful).
    3 Jul 2014, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Get em out there in the wild.

     

    Ultracapacitors Can Provide the Necessary Charge for Remote Power

     

    http://ubm.io/1mc7eg4
    3 Jul 2014, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the NS999 will debut tomorrow with this paint job:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/o5f...
    3 Jul 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Has any else noticed that there are no bids or asks for all stocks on the OTC markets?
    3 Jul 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Masi, Markets closed @ 1:00 PM for the US 4th of July holiday.
    3 Jul 2014, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Never mind, the markets have closed at one. I thought they were open all day because at 10:00 a.m. this morning on all of my portfolio pages it said the markets will be closed in 6 and 1 half hours.
    3 Jul 2014, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Only a week away ... for the other guys.

     

    NAATBatt Storage Workshop:

     

    Using Storage to Juice the Value of Solar PV
    http://conta.cc/1j1lzgp

     

    Check out who is on the panels ... if only we had a sales "team" working in California.

     

    "On July 7-10, 2014, the solar PV industry will convene in the Moscone Center in downtown San Francisco for Intersolar North America 2014, the premier solar energy industry trade show in North America. Last year more than 24,000 people attended this show.

     

    This year, InterSolar North America asked NAATBatt to organize a workshop at the show to address the solar energy community's growing interest in electricity storage technology.

     

    On Thursday morning, July 10, the NAATBatt Storage Workshop will educate solar PV developers and integrators about how to use electricity storage technology to increase financial returns and improve the quality fo PV-generated electricity. Don't miss this change to learn about the synergy of electricity storage and solar PV technology.

     

    Together, solar PV and electricity storage will revolutionize the grid--and much sooner than many imagine."

     

    Don't miss this change or chance .... either one works I guess!
    "fo" sure!
    3 Jul 2014, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hello Vani, time for another cocktail on the "Left Coast".

     

    PV system design: Blymyer Engineers announces “I Shot the Tariff” approach, exhibits at Intersolar North America

     

    "The company views this event as critical to establishing business relationships in the solar supply chain, both domestically and internationally."

     

    "Blymyer Engineers is also looking for novel partnerships with battery and energy storage companies. “Looking into the future we see energy storage being the next big growth driver for the solar industry,” says Rantz.

     

    “When energy storage is added to utility scale and distributed growth systems it levels out the peaks and valleys that occur during the daytime and leads towards a more manageable grid. Especially here in California where regulators have eliminated the fees and reviews, we're predicting a huge potential market for energy storage.”"

     

    http://bit.ly/1md6hnF
    3 Jul 2014, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I don't know how you missed this one.

     

    Punster's Paradise with that title.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ohiVAt

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jul 2014, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I didn't. I had bought the album with that track from "Derick and the Dominos" when it came out. ;-o
    4 Jul 2014, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Holiday bummer tease courtesy of the Shanghai Metals Market:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mcQ6XE

     

    "China’s Narada Power Heavily Invested in Lead-Carbon Battery
    Jul 03, 2014 03:59 GMT Source:SMM
    Tags: Narada Power Source Co, lead-carbon battery, lead-acid battery

     

    SHANGHAI, Jul. 3 (SMM) – Narada Power Source Co. has begun producing lead-carbon batteries on a large scale due to growing market share from high safety and efficiency ratings, Shanghai Metals Market learnt. Lead-carbon batteries with activated carbon boast higher power densities and longer cycle life than lead-acid batteries. Narada Power, a leading battery manufacturer, spent much time in storage battery technology R&D. The company already produced storage batteries for solar and wind power systems back in 2005 which already featured a combination of colloidal electrolyte and Absorbed Glass Mat (AGM......"
    3 Jul 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • 212138
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    I need to dig up JP's article on the hype cycle? I think I remember reading that and would like to read it again and speculate where we are at. I also occurred to me that the overall market is in a hype cycle.
    3 Jul 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • 212138
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Yeah! It's (the hype cycle graph) on JP's instablog. I think we're coming out of the trough of disillusionment and about to embark upon the slope of enlightenment relative to AXPW; the overall market is somewhere in the peak of inflated expectations and the seemingly unrelated but underlying economy is 6' under waiting for the capitulation of the stock market and a major reset before (and if) it starts a new life. Am I an economist? Well, no but the nice thing about economic theories is that much like singular body parts, everybody has one (one of each, hopefully). The downside is that truly genius economists are only visible in the rear-view mirror and even then was he inspired & prescient or just lucky?. An "investor", OTOH, can get lucky and even though he really is an idiot could get rich. And today, this is what gives me hope! Have a good "fourth" everybody"!
    3 Jul 2014, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    What we need is another well followed SA author to write about AXPW. Someone like Joe Springer has followers pile into shares after every article.
    3 Jul 2014, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion finally hit the "innovation trigger" in March of last year when it commissioned the automated sheeting process that brought the price of the PbC down into the high end of the competitive range.

     

    Everything this company has done over the last decade is best classified as R&D, taking a novel technology from the science fair project stage to the product stage. Now we're anxiously awaiting first confirmation that the market thinks the PbC is a worthwhile and attractive alternative to other batteries. They hype cycle won't start in earnest until we have that confirmation, then all hell should break loose.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • 212138
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John! I see what you're saying. Here's hoping for "all hell to break loose" sooner rather than later but even more immediately here's hoping for the "story" to break loose more rather than less. Maybe with a song: "Pardon me boys, is that the battery powered choo-choo?....., Uh...Maybe the song will have to wait for the OTR model, be it NSC or e-Power's: "Six days OTR and I've saved $500 bucks on fuel this week. Yeah, my rig's a little old but that don't mean she's beat. I not tryin' to dodge the scales; I got an e-Power rebuild in my sails! Six days OTR and ....."

     

    Two Twelve One Thirty Eight
    4 Jul 2014, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    OT: We got car guys, we got computer guys, we got ...

     

    Automotive Grade Linux Released for Open Source Cars
    Jul 1, 2014Christopher Tozzi | The VAR Guy

     

    The Linux Foundation and its partners have released the first version of Automotive Grade Linux, the open source platform for use inside connected cars.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mcYeaw
    3 Jul 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Europe’s controversial election to help storage?

     

    http://bit.ly/1mPlDe4
    3 Jul 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Noahfreak
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I had sold out on the last jump in price because I was sick of all the FUDding shorts winning the PR battle, but gained the courage to dip back in on all the pessimism here, where there's otherwise perpetual blinding optimism. I take that as a sign this thing's due for another run in the positive direction. I put in a limit order for slightly less than the price yesterday and saw my GTC trade execute this morning. I was very pleased also to see the NS 999 news today and that it didn't cause a bump in price until later in the day.
    It's weird because when that news hit the market the price actually went down, which is when my limit order triggered. I feel like that happened on the last CC and on the news about the powercube sales. Axionistas seem to be delayed in their reaction to news. Either that or the NS 999 had no effect.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Either that or the NS 999 had no effect. "

     

    Since the NS 999 'happening' consisted of moving of the locomotive outside the Altoona shops and announcement of that event on FB there was nothing much to react to.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Noahfreak
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Good point.
    3 Jul 2014, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I had posted something before on Megajoule Storage Inc. and their development efforts of PbC technology. Yes the pure carbon NAM version. Just checked in to see if there were any further developments.

     

    This from May 9th of this year.

     

    WHAT the ...? "Megajoule has the exclusive distribution rights for stationary large-scale applications"

     

    TechBelt Energy Innovation Center Taking Shape

     

    "Crowther says, in effect, that Megajoule produces large-scale batteries that help to improve power quality and reduce costs by storing energy from coal plants, fuel cells or any source, then discharging that energy when the power’s needed.

     

    “Businesses across the board are starting to use energy storage,” explains Crowther. He says his company’s biggest business opportunity is a hybrid capacitor, a device that charges quickly but discharges slowly.

     

    “It’s the same as a lead-acid battery in a car except it uses a capacitor electrode, which gives it the ability to have 10 times the life of a lead-acid battery and to perform in ways lead-acid batteries can’t,” he says.

     

    Megajoule has the exclusive distribution rights for stationary large-scale applications, Crowther says, which he points out can improve the quality of power and protect against power interruptions, reducing the strain on the power grid during peak use.

     

    “Our business model is to work with partners who already have a product and take it to a different market. And in our case we’ll have a variety of solutions for combining storage with renewable energy or combining energy storage in a commercial or industrial building to reduce their costs. We can also provide energy to the utility grid to stabilize the grid,” he says."

     

    http://bit.ly/1mYCoIx
    3 Jul 2014, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Megajoule is getting NASA SME help this year.

     

    Maybe they should just call TG? <End Snark>

     

    Next Round of "Adopt a City" Companies Announced

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1s6fxLr
    4 Jul 2014, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Curious. From whom, I wonder, did they obtain "exclusive distribution rights"?

     

    Anyway, the storage device they describe is a PbO2-Carbon AEDLC (supercabattery).

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1aCs6WY (SLide 40 = Aquion, Slide 41 = Megajoule)

     

    from Trans-Atlantic Workshop on Storage Technologies for Power Grids, Washington DC Convention Center, October 19-20, 2010
    4 Jul 2014, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Megajoule went to the "ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit to learn about strategies that can take their businesses to the next level. At the event, they heard from others who have scaled up successfully."

     

    I wonder if Axion attended?

     

    Why Scaling Up Sometimes Requires Slowing Down

     

    http://onforb.es/1s6jPT8
    4 Jul 2014, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, Jeez, I hope this isn't our path to significant sales.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    This is a corp. officer at Megajoule.

     

    Arkadiy Klementov

     

    http://linkd.in/I1OVdn

     

    He's on this patent I think. Note the slight spelling diff. of the first name. Also note that the patent used to be assigned to the Russian company Elton. IIRC Elton licensed the NiC supercabattery to Saft.

     

    http://bit.ly/1s6oCEb
    4 Jul 2014, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Arkadiy Klementov
    Co-founder and Senior VP at MegaJoule Storage Inc.
    2010-present

     

    http://linkd.in/I1OVdn

     

    Asymmetric electrochemical capacitor and method of making US 6222723 B1
    http://bit.ly/1s6oCEb

     

    Publication date Apr 24, 2001
    Filing date Dec 7, 1998
    Priority date Dec 7, 1998
    Fee status Paid
    Inventors Serguei Razoumov, Arkadi Klementov, Serguei Litvinenko, Alexey Beliakov
    Original Assignee Joint Stock Company “Elton”

     

    Who knew there were so many Russians?
    4 Jul 2014, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, He's on this paper as well and JME inc. is the parent co. of Megajoule.

     

    http://bit.ly/1s6rqky
    -
    Oh, FYI

     

    http://bit.ly/1s6rqkA
    4 Jul 2014, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Guess we thought alike on that one. I going to follow up on Miller tomorrow. Then blow off some mortars to mortify my neighbors.

     

    I'll dig into the LinkedIn info a bit, too.

     

    Not familiar with the NiC story. Nor "Elton", but using that as the inventor search turned up some slightly older patents in the same vein.

     

    Happy Fourth of July! Off with their heads!
    4 Jul 2014, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    I'd guess JME stands for John Miller Electro .... something or other.

     

    ELECTROCHEMICAL CAPACITORS (ECs):

     

    Technology, Applications, and Needs
    Basic Research Needs for Electrical Energy Storage Workshop—April 2-5, 2007

     

    John R. Miller;
    JME, Inc.
    216-751-9537
    <jmecapacitor@att.n...

     

    It's a 12 mB ppt, lots of figures I've seen before
    4 Jul 2014, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Here is a presentation Miller made in 2010

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1aCs6WY

     

    The most interesting tidbit was that Miller presents the Megajoule capacitor as optimized for a C/5 rate while the most important applications for the PbC seem to want a 2C to 4C rate for charge and discharge.
    4 Jul 2014, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    Well, I guess that's it. Problem solved.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    You have discovered a direct competitor and some of the original IP history. Good job.
    Next question is, do they have a product, how good is it, do they have the facility to make their product in commercial quantities at or below Axion's cost, and how good is their VP of Sales and Marketing?
    Having a direct competitor is always stimulating and in the case of Axion, it had better be a stimulus for improved sales and marketing  or getting a strategic partner that will accomplish that end.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    ... and the most important question of all, can they manufacture thier product without infringing Axion's electrode construction and PbC manufacturing process patents.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    WE HAVE AN ANSWER. Last May an "Innovation Fund" organized by a Community College Foundation in Northeast Ohio awarded Megajoule Storage $100,000 of seed funding.

     

    http://bit.ly/1rtnXiq

     

    "MegaJoule Storage, Inc. is commercializing high performance electrochemical capacitors for power quality and energy storage in electric utility, industrial, and commercial markets. Its product platform enhances power quality, reliability, and cost in both commercial and industrial renewable energy and smart grid implementation. The Innovation Fund award will help the company conduct market research on targeted vertical markets and design and build a prototype system to field test for customer validation."

     

    This suggests that they've gotten to the same stage the PbC technology was at in late 2002 or early 2003.
    4 Jul 2014, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I just wanted to see if they were still around.

     

    By the time they matter Axion will be fully scaled by "someone", better known as TBD, or they can buy it on the scrap heap. We should know this year, based on data from your teams efforts and some clearer indication from NSC, what current Axionista financial involvement will be. Less clear is how dilute the participation will be. Not seeing many delivery trucks on the road.
    4 Jul 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    pbcb, They have no product, no facility (temporary HQ still has dust on benches, IIUC), no VP. How was your shave this morning? Any regrets? hehhehheh.
    4 Jul 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Schmatko and Volfkovich, two of the C and T CO. scientists whose patents were obtained by Axion also worked with Klementov and others. It's one big Russian party. A bit tricky to follow and I'm sure I've missed connections.

     

    Capacitor with dual electric layer
    US 6195252 B1
    http://bit.ly/1rtVA3F

     

    Asymmetric electrochemical capacitor and method of making
    US 6222723 B1
    http://bit.ly/1rtVA3J

     

    Capacitor with dual electric layer
    US 6335858 B1
    http://bit.ly/1rtVA3P
    4 Jul 2014, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    "How was your shave this morning? Any regrets? hehhehheh."
    ---
    Edmund, please, this is getting SOOOooooo tiresome.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    EM - Yes complicated - very complicated but not something that Axion's founders would not have delved into in great detail back in 2003-4 when they acquired this technology from C&T and they no doubt used some very skilled patent attorneys who do this for a living. This is something of a game for us at this point in time but I'm sure that it was very serious business for the founders of Axion way back then.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    OK, Wayne, I was going to offer an olive branch on account of the holiday anyway. Just haven't gotten around to it.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - Agree, they appear to be in an early stage but Arkadiy Klementov has impressive technology credentials. If and when AXPW gets to being profitable, they will have lots of IP cards to play but to play that game takes muscle as in $$,$$$,$$$. Does MegaJoule have any silent partners back in Russia with muscle?
    In situations like this one Axion has to remain vigilant with regard to past employees, where are they, who are they working for, do they have an ax to grind. They must also be concerned, as always, about key existing employees. Trade secrets are a key portion of any IP and secrets are a very tricky business to manage.
    4 Jul 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree with you on this, PbC Believer. :)

     

    The closest thing to a "connection" back to Russia is a rather odd mention of JME Miller in a slide presentation from ELIT. It occurs on the same slide (#9) in which they include a note concerning "Intellectual property protection: Design and method patent RU 2140680, patent US 6,594,138 (patent owner A.I. Belyakov) – status is supported.

     

    http://bit.ly/LptcwB

     

    Belyakov (other spellings abound) is found in the earliest PbO2-Carbon patent (Nov 11 1997 Capacitor with dual electric layer US 6195252 B1) with Schmatko, Litvinenko, Volfkovich, et al.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Obviously I meant "The closest thing I have found so far...."
    4 Jul 2014, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - Appears that Miller wears the marketing hat. The slides are revealing but the personality behind those slides is the bigger factor. The strapped 7 single-cell photo puts then at Axion's 2004-5 stage of development but their method of constructing the carbon electrode is the real measure of where they are at. Based on the market they have targeted I'd bet that this is a mini-model of the cells that they are planning to make and my bet is that they may well stay with the single cells.

     

    I like the fact that these guys are now in the picture, having someone on your heels makes you run faster and think harder.
    4 Jul 2014, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm still fascinated by their decision to target a C/5 charge discharge profile because once a day cycling is the toughest way in the world to make money, even if your battery is really cheap. Folks seem to think only of battery costs when they run their economics but by the time they add containerization and power electronics the BOS costs screw up the economics.

     

    I've always believed the world hates a monopoly and that two serious competitors will each generate more revenue than a single monopoly competitor could. That being said, I want to own the competitor with the 10 year head start because that's a very tough advantage to overcome.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, The container cost factor is why in their presentations they are talking about locating the storage in old power plants. You have the building, transformers and transmission already in place.

     

    Why are they focused more on large storage bank time shifting of energy? Who knows? Could be they are getting hung up on the percentage of the system cost, in a small system, that the energy conversion electronics cost. Scaling will help that a bunch.

     

    Anyway, this is an older presentation. They will, like anyone, change their message as customer/market expectations morph.

     

    As a side note, it is interesting to see them delivering some of the same message as Axion. Makes you wonder if it was discretely obvious causing some parallel thoughts or if they are snooping.

     

    All in all I guess it's something else interesting to look at. They are way behind the curve but hey, ya never know. Maybe some crazy azzed Russians or US interests will moon shot them and we'll be left dazed and confused. Putin Power or Megajoule Inside! :-O

     

    http://bit.ly/1ohT8Io
    4 Jul 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Another "competitor":

     

    http://bit.ly/1oi7Y1I

     

    Well-written article from Miller and Burke entitled Electrochemical Capacitors:
    Challenges and Opportunities for Real-World Applications (2008, Electrochemical Society)

     

    Check out the references - especially #21 and 22.

     

    Kazaryan and Universal Supercapacitors LLC are still active in the PbO2-Carbon AEDLC space. This application: Electrochemical supercapacitor/lead-acid battery hybrid electrical energy storage device
    US 20080199737 A1 has already been granted in China http://bit.ly/1oi7Y1O
    4 Jul 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    While we have often heard it that the PbC is uneconomical for load-shifting, that is certainly not the opinion expressed in the article by Miller-Burke. Nor is it the position of the MegaJoule Miller-Klementov.

     

    I realize the PbC FR duty cycle makes a lot more money, but as thousands upon thousands of PbCs are rolled out - puff-puff - surely ever-longer-term load-shifting would occur. Eventually we'd run out of lead, I suppose.
    4 Jul 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • 212138
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Another article on NSC derailment in Sewickley yesterday: http://bit.ly/1rtSNHM

     

    What would happen to a ................ rig in a rollover?
    4 Jul 2014, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    2121, shouldn't be that bad. No fuel should be a plus. The batteries are AGM type design so no significant acid spill. The only concern would be how they handle the high voltage the strings can present. So there will be special training involved for personnel and first responders. Just like PHEVs and EVs.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - They have targeted a very special circumstance in which a power plant is being decommissioned and you then have that complete infrastructure that they are assuming could be converted to a mega-energy storage facility at very little cost of conversion - kind of a freebie. If there are hundreds of such situations around the world, that plan for market entry works - but you have to "get the order" and "close the sale" and that's where the marketeering skill set becomes a primary factor. The $64 question is - How good is the Miller - Klementov tag team at marketeering?
    4 Jul 2014, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When I look at all the things Axion had to learn between 2004, 05 and the commissioning of the sheeting line in March '13, my bet is that Miller and Klementov will have a lot of technical hoops to jump through before marketing prowess becomes an issue.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I just ran across an April 23, 2014 Cummins press release that announced a £4.9 million grant from the UK’s Technology Strategy Board as part of a £9.9 million project to develop stop-start systems for heavy duty commercial vehicles.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ohXW0z

     

    Given the way Axion was able to bring Cummins to the table for ePower I have to draw a heavy dotted line between the two companies on my network chart. Since Tom said a couple times that they were working on trucking applications that had bigger potential than APUs, I think there's a reasonable basis to speculate that Axion is already working with Cummins on batteries for the heavy duty stop-start systems the UK's Technology Strategy Board just funded.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... As much as things change, the more they stay the same. The first time I ever ran across the idea of the Pbc was for starting diesel engines in the cold.

     

    We can hope Cummins is working with Axion on this. It is a good fit for the device. Now the questions I have are:
    1) Would Cummins actually use Axion's PbC?
    My guess would be a possibly "Maybe", but there is a lot of politics that go into big market product development projects like this.

     

    2) Would Axion benefit in some material way from the grant?
    A possibility but Axion's track record with grants is not very good. I would hope there is something more than contributing a couple of dozen PbC's for someone else to play with like a large chunk of engineering time and some PR.

     

    3) How many years will it be to product?
    Right now it seems that product development is taking about 3 to 5 years (my WAG).

     

    Reading their objective "... planning on developing an engine centric hybrid solution that is interchangeable with existing engine platforms at very low cost", I would think that Cummins could backfeed ePower & vendors with some very interesting innovation ideas & hardware. True, buses & Class 8 trucks don't share similar duty cycles but the crossovers could be interesting.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since the ePower introduction happened about a year ago, I'd guess that C?A (speculative relationship notation) would already be a year or two into the product development cycle. I'd also expect that a truck application might proceed more quickly that automotive because the mechanical systems are bigger and the hotl functions less sophisticated. Trucks are also much harder on batteries than cars.

     

    So far I've been amazed at the level of free engineering support ePower is getting from Cummins, especially when you remember that we bought our engines from salvage yards so they're not even serving an existing customer. I think we have a lot to prove before we get a PDA (public display of affection) from Cummins, but they're clearly interested in taking things to the next level, whatever that turns out to be.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Any development charges/costs in last quarters financials?
    4 Jul 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Research and development expense:
    Q1 2014 $443,926 Q1 2013 $517,801
    "Research and development expenses (“R&D”) include expenses to design, develop and test advanced batteries, carbon electrode assemblies and systems for our energy storage products with prospective customers based on our patented lead carbon technology. Also included in R&D are materials consumed in the production of pilot plant production and our engineering activities."
    4 Jul 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Too complex to tie it down to one event but the directional adjustment in R&D over that time frame could be directionally just a sign of Ender's departure.
    4 Jul 2014, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Research and development expense:
    Q1 2014 $443,926 Q1 2013 $517,801"

     

    Amounts to restatement of Q1 financials when TG declared the company operating as a commercial stage.
    4 Jul 2014, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Correct, D-inv, that's everything of any specificity about R&D from the Q1 financials (the statement is also quoted from the SEC filing); I also perused the last two conference call transcripts. Nothing there with respect to dollars billed for what, either. But we have John's account that they have been working with ePower, the NS effort is also probably billed under R&D. I'd guess too that the live monitoring and video of the PowerCube that was mentioned during the last CC as having been installed for purposes of sales and marketing efforts would billed as R&D, at least in part.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday's stuff.

     

    07/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 13, MinTrSz: 552, MaxTrSz: 14000, Vol: 73052, AvTrSz: 5619
    Min. Pr: 0.1417, Max Pr: 0.1489, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1447
    # Buys, Shares: 10 53052, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1457
    # Sells, Shares: 3 20000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1420
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.65:1 (72.62% "buys"), DlyShts 37929 (51.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 189.65%

     

    The shareholder approval of the reverse-split and reduction in authorized shares was announced today. I believe it has affected the market. I'm thinking it will be three more trading days before it might be safe to assess on-going behavior again. Just add these last two thoughts to the end of each paragraph below wherein I note a change in behavior. Add in the very low volume as another factor to reduce the level of confidence in any possible conclusions.

     

    We had potential “outliers” today but each accounted for 15.86% of the day's volume so it's hard to view them as such. The low was set by a single 10K sell at 10:57, the first trade of the day, for $0.1417. The next higher priced trades were at $0.1422, 10K of sells. All further higher-priced trades, starting at $0.1449, were buys. The high of the day was established by buys of 1,071 and 8,929 shares at $0.1489. I think these were really one trade in two pieces because of the 10K total and price.

     

    It looks like the sellers aren't in, suggested by a sell percentage of only ~27.4%, and VWAP up another 2.53%, no big offer of 374K at $0.145 from CDEL, and the very low volume.

     

    Yesterday I noted the $0.14 price barely held ...

     

    Today's action provides a big variance from that prior behavior and I think I might have to ... revise my thinking? Become cautious? Something is changing here. Did the CDEL 374K seller decide to hold or decide to sell in smaller chunks to avoid moving the market lower? I don't know. I only know this does not reflect the behavior we've been seeing. I suspect the announcement of the approval of the reverse-split and reduction in authorized shares today has affected the market.

     

    The buy percentage jumped big to 72.6% from the prior 22.8% and 15.3%. We'll have to see if this is a trend change, likely due to the reverse-split announcement.

     

    Most of the usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jul 2014, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - hope you are right about that dotted line. This always has been a perfect fit for the PbC battery and has always been on their wish list. "Cummins studies have shown that a city bus will have 50 stops per hour, with over 30% of time at idle. This gives the project significant opportunity for efficiency improvements.” With the hotel load of a city buss AC system, door and lift operation, etc. and lots of space to house the batteries, PbC is the horse to bet on in a fair race with an even playing field. Unfortunately no such circumstance exists in business dealings where people, personalities and connections are big factors in deciding the outcome.
    Axion needs a break, good luck TG and Vani on this one, but the fruits from this project are too far off to keep Axion in business. Axion needs PbC revenues NOW.
    4 Jul 2014, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've always had a split personality who it comes to revenues. Part of me knows sales are important to establish credibility, but the rest of me know they have to be the "right kind" of sales to impress the financial markets.

     

    If Axion had a staff of super-salesmen who were selling batteries to boat owners on Monday, independent truckers on Tuesday, home solar installers on Wednesday and fielding customer service calls on Thursday and Friday, the investment bankers I've known would criticize a lack of focus. They know in their hearts that a small company can't be all things to all potential customers and it's easier to sell a clear vision than a grab bag, even if the grab bag would generate more current revenue than the vision.

     

    The flip side of the coin is that the toughest time in the life cycle of any R&D company is when the development work is done and you have to wait for the market to give a decade of intense effort a thumbs up or a thumbs down. When it comes to answering that critical question, grab bag sales aren't compelling even if they do help keep the plant running.

     

    The most encouraging news for me has been the absence of failures in first tier validation programs that are designed to separate the wheat from the chaff ASAP. But after a while even that runs thin as people ask "Why are they taking so long to make up their minds." It's one of those questions that has dozens of accurate but wholly unsatisfying answers.

     

    More than anything Axion needs a clear path to the kind of revenues a public company needs to thrive. While several trails have been blazed into the wilderness, none of the have reached the path stage yet. It's an incredibly frustrating time because the vulture on my left shoulder is saying "patience" while the one on my right is shouting "Patience Hell, we need to kill something."

     

    A the end of the day all I can do is fall back on my ePower experience which has shown me that the PbC is a far better battery than I expected it to be, and that's saying a lot.
    4 Jul 2014, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - The real problem for me is the nearly eight year string of Axion's stated expectations of sales revenues that have nearly all been followed by either an open admission of disappointing failure for whatever reason, or more often they are followed by the silent disappearance of any mention of that sales expectation - it just vanishes, never to be mentioned again.
    We all know that no startup company can burn through money the way Axion has in the past and continues to do as we speak and still survive. And we all know that the only way to reduce that bleeding is with profitable sales revenues.

     

    I don't dislike or disrespect TG or Vani (and Vani has not been on the job for all that long) but they have failed to produce even the revenues that they personally promised to deliver, let alone the level of revenues needed to significantly reduce the bleeding.

     

    There are without a doubt many very good reasons why Axion's stated revenue expectations have not come to fruition but those who have invested their hard earned dollars in this enterprise expect management to be held accountable and that means when things don't work they have to change and as an investor I am seeing year after year of failures to perform to expectation with no change and no accountability.

     

    The same old same old just does not cut the mustard for me and as usual I speak only for me.
    4 Jul 2014, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion has a list of things that are impressive and far from it. The right balance of sustenance business and big game hunting would surely, if marketed, not under impress anyone. It takes a good balance of bunts to far more impressive batter up performance along with minimizing errors to optimize the outcome of a ball game. Thus far Axion is sure not walking on water when it comes to utilizing all the resources they have in the dugout.
    4 Jul 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    I just had this strange vision of Jesus rounding third....
    4 Jul 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    As an AXPW investor I'm asking:

     

    http://bit.ly/ZcCTiw

     

    :-)
    4 Jul 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, Why so strange? Jesus loves baseball.

     

    "Rounding third and headed for home, It's a brown eyed handsome man..."

     

    http://bit.ly/1t6Lrf4
    4 Jul 2014, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - I want to be completely fair in judging our AXPW situation and this is a perfect time to look back at the recent past, given that fully half of the year 2014 is now behind us.

     

    Can you and I reflect on just these past six months and list a few reasons why the shareholders of AXPW should be pleased with the 2014 performance thus far, keeping in mind that during these first two quarters the company will report a Net Loss of no less than $8,500,000?
    - So how have the traditional business metrics progressed? - Have we added any new strategic partners?
    - Have there been any PbC sales reported?
    - Does the approval of a reverse split show progress in any real business sense?
    - Has the progress of ePower led to new battery orders or the accelerated delivery of their existing orders?
    - Any new grants of any kind?
    - What other than the reverse split approval has occurred in the second quarter?
    - What am I missing?

     

    John, I truly do believe in the merits of this battery but is Axion Power International, Inc. a religion or is it a business entity? No doubt for you and I - it is both of those, but can Axion expect faith to play a role in the minds of all of the shareholders? Do institutional investors make their decisions based on faith?

     

    http://bit.ly/ZcCTiw
    4 Jul 2014, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've never seen a transition stage company that didn't make very lumpy progress and I'd never even consider evaluating the performance of the management team on a six month basis. True institutional investors are far more interested in where a company is going than where it has been. The vultures, shylocks and parasites are only interested in a pound of flesh.

     

    Back in February I wrote an Instablog about Axion's business performance and market price since 2009.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lzfsj0

     

    The list of significant accomplishments is long and some of them are immense for a nano-cap. Through it all the only common denominator has been a handful of very large holders who were willing to sell at distressed prices for a wide variety of reasons.

     

    You apparently blame the current price doldrums on a lack of sales. I blame them entirely on a massive supply and demand imbalance in Axion's second product, the common stock that management left to fend for itself.

     

    The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but we can only speak from the perspective of the shoes we stand in. My entire career has dealt with the markets for intangible investment securities. It sounds like yours has focused on the markets for physical products. Since we come from very different backgrounds, it's only natural that we'd see different causes for he same effect.
    4 Jul 2014, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - You are right my three decades of entrepreneurial experience was with real products (batteries are real products but far afield from mine) that involved new technology (Pb/C is new technology but once again far afield from mine) but in those 30 years of successful entrepreneurial experience I never saw six months without real and reportable progress. I of course feel that my experience is more relevant in judging the real progress of AXPW than yours but no doubt you feel the opposit.
    
    I have never considered share price to be a credible measure of a company's business health. What I am most interested in is this issue of Axion's health and I see real problems in the area of sales and marketing.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm the first to admit that many others are far better qualified to judge business execution issues than I am, particularly since I'm stuck in the information void that's typical for non-insiders. My experience makes me a little better than most when it comes to reading between the lines and deciphering patterns in the tea leaves, but both arts are pretty imprecise.

     

    I've been far enough away from Axion for a long enough period of time that I don't have any basis to judge the quality of its marketing. The only experience I've had is through ePower and that experience has been good.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, If you can, would you mind sharing any feedback concerning how the announced Axion point contact person is working out as a single channel interface to Axion and also any perspective you might have in how his industry experience might be helping out. Just curious to see how this resource person is working out. Thanks.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - Just a point of curiosity. When Edmund decides to get "in my face" he always says "we" this and "we" that. Is Edmund an official spokesman for some group or sub-group within this forum or does he perhaps have a mouse in his pocket?
    4 Jul 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    I side with you completely, PbC believer. It is now plainly obvious for everyone to see that the current CEO is not doing a good job at selling the product. The next capital raise will undoubtedly be another bloodbath for legacy shareholder, and I think it is time for a mass revolt to throw the current management out. No one is irreplaceable (not even S. Jobs was at the end after all), and TG is certainly not!
    4 Jul 2014, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The new kid on the block is always suspect, particularly if he's perceived as unduly forceful, negative or repetitive. You'd be amazed at the number of wolves in sheep's clothing and other trolls that have passed through these pages over the last few years.

     

    This group is intensely interested in learning as many relevant facts as they can. They're also intent on protecting the integrity of this forum because it is truly something special, if not one of a kind. The best discussions educate with new facts. The more discussions drift away from fact and into personal opinion, the less valuable they become.
    4 Jul 2014, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    PBCC - There's a whole bunch of us sitting in front of my computer. We are having a bunch of fun. Keep signing up.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Amouna ... I do tire of reading this "Throw the bum out" meme. I understand the frustration but it is always done with no solution. Who would this mystery corporate savior be? I'm not quite of the opinion that just anyone off the street would be better. I guess there is a battery sector superstar manager out there but I don't have any idea who that might be and apparently neither do the people calling for Mr. Granville's head. Lest they might have the courtesy to make mention of such a person that is possibly available.

     

    My hope is that current management both sets the company up to carry itself into the future as well as improves current performance. A little more public discussion/disclosure would be nice also. I'm much more in favor of Axion hiring one or several people younger & with the potential to take over someday. Most of Axion management is close to what is considered retirement age and succession is important in a company. That is not to say anyone of the present managers or BoD members cares to retire but it would not be good for them to just die on the job. Performance within Axion would be my yardstick.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    You obviously have no use for this company and the people who run it. You only have two options 1) Sell any shares you may hold (if you actually hold any) and go away or 2) Go troll somewhere else. The personal stuff you are constantly boring on about is not part of this forum's DNA. You are wasting our time and John's good will and patience.
    4 Jul 2014, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Faith is an important word with much meaning. Today, we are celebrating the 4th of July. If our for-fathers did not have faith, we would not be celebrating this day.

     

    Before the electric light bulb was invented, over 17,000 different element materials were used. The people who put up the money had to have faith in the ultimate goal of electric light rather than candles, whale oil, or natural gas. There was understanding by those investors that the electric light bulb would be far safer than the other alternatives. It is interesting to note that General Electric is the outgrowth of this effort. If interested, take a look at what General Electric is involved in today. Note: I am long on General Electric.

     

    I have a MS in Business, but if I only relied on statistics, I would be a poor institutional investor or anything else related to business. As Clint Eastwood would say, "You have to know your limitations."
    Statistics have their limitations, and to use them best, you need to know their limitations.
    4 Jul 2014, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    So Amouna the Smoking Furby and PbC the Jedi Master Yoda have something in common; they both wish to throw the Axion Grand Master Council under the bus.

     

    My band is in stitches. We just found something else these characters have in common:

     

    http://chzb.gr/1msWn38
    4 Jul 2014, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I can easily concur with your very reasonable wishes. Any ideas as to how to go about making those wishes come true?
    4 Jul 2014, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "You obviously have no use for this company and the people who run it. You only have two options 1) Sell any shares you may hold (if you actually hold any) and go away or 2) Go troll somewhere else."

     

    A third option is to continue expressing dissatisfaction with non-attainment of publicly disclosed objectives established by incumbent management until enough shareholder support materializes to remove unsatisfactory performers.

     

    The only rational reason I see for retaining incumbent top management at Axion is minimization of company culture shock on employees in event the forthcoming capital raise is contingent on naming of a new CEO (and perhaps board members) by an investor syndicate. OTOH, one might consider possibility that such a financing offer was rejected in 2013 prior to incumbent management opting for the PIPE agreement. Shareholder approval of the RS and new share issuance authorization ceiling proposed by the board has set the stage for a repeat PIPE IMO, though, as long as the incumbent CEO retains his position.
    4 Jul 2014, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "... they both wish to throw the Axion Grand Master Council under the bus."

     

    Amouna and PbC Believer have company. Seems to me incumbent board is throwing shareholders under the bus by failing to act to redress repeated performance shortfall on part of incumbent CEO and board chairman.

     

    It is my hope that others who believe as I do that AXPW needs new senior management are expressing their view directly to the AXPW board.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    D-inv - Doing anything that would impede the ongoing efforts to fund Axion's continued operations is a very bad idea. Transitions in management must be carefully planed by the BoD - that's their job and the most that any group of shareholders should do is let the Board know that they are not happy with management and why. I think that's all that DRich may have been suggesting.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    They just announced a million-dollar sale. Real money, not tax money. Tom was all over that deal and by all accounts the customer is a likely source of more orders. They just retrieved 864 batteries and got them ready for Norfolk. Again, real money spent by likely repeat customer. Both of these markets are significant, solid proof of product.
    They are working with ePower and by all accounts are providing excellent service after the *real money sale* of 10 56-PbC truck-packs.
    Anyone bitching about the company, its efforts, sales or leadership *at this point in time* is in the wrong stock. I don't need to be smoking anything to enjoy the view I see in front of me.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >PbC Believer ... Sorry but I'd put myself dead last on any list of people that might make good business personnel selections. I'm a lowly engineer, designer, drafter. I know something about the processes of sales & operating a business but I know I have no talent to actually sell anything or run a business. I also wouldn't know what to look for in an applicant.

     

    If you need a mechanical or structural system analyzed, modified or built from scratch ... I can do that in most any capacity from mud, to metal, to management. In my retirement I've come to appreciate the jigsaw puzzle work of laying out circuit boards and assembly language for entertaining fun. People beyond my shallow knowledge pool are a mystery.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Doing anything that would impede the ongoing efforts to fund Axion's continued operations is a very bad idea."

     

    It is far from clear to me that retention of TG as CEO is least likely to "impede the ongoing efforts to fund Axion's continued operations". TG's repeated non-delivery on projections of "significant sales" are hardly an AXPW asset.
    4 Jul 2014, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "They just announced a million-dollar sale. Real money, not tax money. "

     

    Overstatement, Edmund. Axion announced a POTENTIAL million-dollar sale, sales that are contingent on performance and financial metrics realized on the first 'PowerCube' sale to that system integrator (announced last November). To date, operational status of that first 'PowerCube' buy remains to be confirmed.

     

    Norfolk Southern reportedly has moved and acted to recharge 864 PbC batteries delivered to their agent(s) in December 2012. Revenues to AXPW derived from those Norfolk Southern actions appear limited to sales of chargers, not PbCs, and some possible billings for engineering services.

     

    Axion PbC sales to ePower reported in CCs and/or by John Petersen have amounted to only three-to-four battery packs. Many more PbCs have apparently been delivered to ePower to replace PbCs actually placed in service in that application (enabling forensic testing for durability evaluation, etc.) and to replace the 60 battery PbC-gen1 delivery.

     

    As to "Anyone bitching about the company, its efforts, sales or leadership *at this point in time* is in the wrong stock", you have every right to your own opinion as do I. And IMO you have no standing in trying to tell me how or what to invest in.
    5 Jul 2014, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Thank you D-inv. Much appreciate the support.
    5 Jul 2014, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The first battery pack ePower bought was replaced with Gen2 batteries a few months later. We subsequently bought a second battery pack for the day cab. Those two battery packs are it to date. We recently bought four more tractors that we plan to convert later this year, but the batteries won't be delivered until we need them.
    5 Jul 2014, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Misery loves company.
    5 Jul 2014, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    JP, you just described Axion's actual, poorly executed sales "strategy", except with a few incorrect nouns. Let's see, Axion chased oil platforms, high-end residential, autos with BMW and an anonymous major from the East, railroad slugs, railroad OTR, trucking APUs, trucking serial drives, behind the meter power balancing, front of the meter frequency regulation, PV street lights, island microgrids, and who knows what else shrouded in NDAs. I am sure I have forgotten several other rumors, too.

     

    The results revealed: single prototype sales for one locomotive, one truck, one high-end residential unit, one "cube" in NJ for ambiguously described purposes, and perhaps a few others not publicly described. Rumors in the pipeline don't count.

     

    I, like everybody else on the board, am happy you have had a happy sales experience with Axion-ePower.

     

    As you wrote: "...the investment bankers I've known would criticize a lack of focus." Yep. But that lack of focus with some interesting top line revenue would be a whole lot more interesting to someone who wants to invest $10-$50m. "Lack of focus" can mean lots of opportunities, then choosing.

     

    Axion should be focusing on selling batteries, not systems. To get systems developed that can make use of bio-carbons, they need to encourage an ecosystem, not keep it in a dark, inaccessible cave. We are coming up on a decade of proof the dark cave of marketing has not worked.

     

    Axion's true lack has been the lack of marketing, lack of product information, lack of experimentation, lack of transparency, lack of communication, lack of ecosystem, etc. I know I am preaching, not to the choir but to the kennel now; 95% voted in favor of management. Frustrating - so many opportunities for a good technology being squandered.

     

    Marketing does not mean funny commercials or expensive trade shows. Marketing's goal is simple --> maximize contribution:

     

    Contribution = [(units sold) * (unit price)] - (COGS + marketing cost)

     

    Pretty basic. I don't get why you are so (apparently) irrationally opposed to marketing.
    5 Jul 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Calling John irrational is an inexcusable insult. Go somewhere else with your vile attacks on people.
    5 Jul 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >growsmart ... I certainly don't see Rick's argument the way you do.
    5 Jul 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater (a/k/a the super salesmen) chased oil platforms and high-end residential.

     

    The work with automotive OEMs continues after four years brutal product validation that's designed to disqualify new batteries ASAP.

     

    The work with rail continues after four years equally brutal product validation that has recently progressed to a first prototype.

     

    The work with serial drive for trucking is ongoing, and by the way it was two battery packs not one.

     

    The work with behind the meter power balancing and frequency regulation has started to generate sales which may not be huge revenue numbers, but are very large given the fact that the purchases are being made with private capital instead of government grants.

     

    The things you want to characterize as dismal failures I see as resounding successes.

     

    I have no problems with marketing and know its the lifeblood of every business. I also know that the kind of marketing structure you favor is extremely expensive to create and maintain. Axion hasn't had a strong hand in the financial markets since I resigned as counsel. Since 2009 it's had a hard time raising more than $10 million a year in survival financing. Increasing the burn rate by 50% to 100% or more to implement a "take it to the streets" marketing strategy would, in my experience, make it harder for Axion to raise money, not easier.

     

    I love marketing, but only if you can show me how the heavily front-end loaded marketing costs will be paid for with funds that are in hand or available on reasonable terms.

     

    We're talking Catch 22 here and there are no easy solutions. You can't starve a company with one hand and demand that it spend mega-bucks with the other.

     

    PbC Believer is fond of this clip:

     

    http://bit.ly/SFCQPt

     

    The flip side of that coin is here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1olLgpB
    5 Jul 2014, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    John has repeatedly said that the marketing could be better but there are other considerations at this stage in the game. Limited resources have to be allocated in the most effective way. That is management's job and those who are not in their shoes should be careful about what they say.
    In any case the Krementz family had a big jewelry business that was so well managed that it no longer exists. Rick's know-it-all comments should be taken with a grain of salt.
    Courtesy and civility are what make intelligent discussion possible. If Rick thinks John is irrational, why is Rick wasting his valuable time here? For that matter why is smarty pants Rick continuing to discuss matters with an irrational person? Sounds a little bit like the old Einstein story. Why is Rick so rude and angry? Does he have serious emotional problems?
    5 Jul 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    Well said DRich (4july 8:29 PM), I too "do tire" and I especially appreciate your point that "succession is important in a company".

     

    One minor quibble with the word 'meme' which has long fascinated me although I never completely understood it. From one dictionary . . "that which is imitated". While some certainly 'imitate' on these pages it seems to me that most have an opinion which may change over time but remains an opinion as opposed to an imitation.
    5 Jul 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Where are you guys at with that marine market proposal?

     

    The marine app was your suggestion. You said Axion totally missed the boat. What boat?

     

    After a bunch of hoopla and high-fives, we heard nothing more about it, the PbC-powered pleasure-craft remains moored, and non-productive complaining has started again.

     

    The idea that was floated earlier, i.e., that if you continue complaining you will eventually oust Tom Granville and the BOD by turning more and more of we investors against them, is not going to happen unless you can convince us that there are egregious failures to address this or that "significant sales" market opportunity.

     

    So convince us. My band is listening. We've turned down the music for you. Let's hear your proposal. We've heard enough of the complaining; let's get back to business.
    5 Jul 2014, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Successful crowd-sourced investor activism would be a new one to me. At least up til now, the only activism I've seen actually work is the traditional kind---buy a stake of stock that's large enough to actually change the Board's/mgmt's actions, ala Icahn and Jana Partners. Something like 10-15%.

     

    Not sure how a couple dozen much smaller retail investors legally coordinate coherent alternative plans, like who would take the place of Granville, which mkts to pursue and which to neglect, etc.

     

    The activist investors I've seen induce change not only defined the problems but offered tangible alternatives. Might actually be really neat if that happened here, and perhaps trail-blazing, but I would be surprised. At most, I think the dissatisfied might make Granville's re-election to the Board a little uncertain. Should he even choose to run again.
    5 Jul 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP - You say:
    "The work with automotive OEMs continues after four years brutal product validation that's designed to disqualify new batteries ASAP."

     

    - Is it your belief that BMW has been testing the PbC battery for four years and that the BMW testing of the PbC battery is still ongoing?

     

    - If so, is your belief based on clear statements made by Axion or did you somehow read this understanding into what you were told over the course of four years?
    - Don't be too quick to answer.
    5 Jul 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's my belief that the testing and validation process was successfully concluded and the discussions have moved on to the more complex and difficult issues of process validation and developing a manufacturing and supply chain that's robust enough to satisfy the needs of an automaker, including redundant suppliers.

     

    At least while I was at Axion we never saw our battery manufacturing activities growing to a point where we could even consider being a direct battery supplier for an industry as massive as automotive. For that mega-market the best outcome would have been some sort of component supply agreement with a major battery manufacturer and the more likely outcome would have been some sort of license or JV that would give the counterparty an ability to continue producing batteries even if something very bad happened to Axion.
    5 Jul 2014, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Is this a recent communication and is there anything in writing that you can share?
    5 Jul 2014, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The only things I can share are disclosures in Axion's SEC filings.

     

    Please don't play mind games with me or suggest that I have access to non-public information. It's inappropriate and in poor taste for someone like you who may well have superior knowledge.
    5 Jul 2014, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP, no mind games, I have this from Tom Konrad a year ago.
    http://onforb.es/16XgfOE

     

    "In terms of Axion’s progress on stop-start, I spoke with Axion’s CEO Thomas Granville on Thursday. BMW has completed third party testing on its prototypes, but does not want to adopt the technology if Axion is its sole supplier. With an introduction from BMW, Axion is working with at least one major battery manufacturer to allow it to be a second manufacturer for BMW."

     

    I have never seen confirmation of this claim directly from Axion and I was hoping that you may have. What has happened in the intervening year?
    5 Jul 2014, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Writers like Tom Konrad can talk to Axion without coming across as a puppet or a conduit for intentional leaks. I can't take those risks because of my professional status and my former affiliation with the company.
    5 Jul 2014, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP found it
    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 --

     

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

     

    That's 14 months ago. There must be something more recent since it was "going well".
    5 Jul 2014, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The same language appears in the 6-30-13 Form 10-Q. It has not appeared in Axion's SEC filings since last August but until a contract is signed there's nothing disclose and talking too much is dangerous. It would be really nice if SEC regulations were like children's games so companies could play "getting hotter - getting colder," but they're not, and sometimes companies just have to let pending opportunities wallow for a while if they want the right deal instead of unfavorable terms that will serve as prototypes for all subsequent similar contracts.
    5 Jul 2014, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    Good links John...captures both side of the coin.
    5 Jul 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    I am anxiously awaiting Axions next hire, a new CFO!

     

    Hopefully soon!
    5 Jul 2014, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Do you see the same downward confidence trend in these statement that I see?

     

    March 2012 release
    AXPW 2011 10-K
    "We feel we have the best potential product for the emerging micro-hybrid (stop-start) market and therefore we have devoted considerable time and money in working with our strategic partners and prospective customers in this area."

     

    March 2013 relaese,
    AXPW 2012 10-K
    "We feel we have the best potential product for the emerging micro-hybrid (stop-start) market and therefore we have devoted considerable time and money in working with our strategic partners and prospective customers in this area. In 2012, two new major players in the automotive and truck manufacturing industry, joined our programs. Since the end of 2012, two additional OEM’s have moved into programs with us."

     

    March 2014 release,
    AXPW 2013 10-K
    "We believe our PBC technology is well suited for the emerging micro-hybrid market incorporating stop/start systems; therefore, we have devoted considerable time and money in working with our supply chain partners and prospective customers in this area."

     

    April 2014 release,
    AXPW 2014 Q1 10-Q
    "Although our work continues in other areas:

     

    • Hybrid trains with Norfolk Southern on both all electric ‘yard slugs’ and ‘over the road’ hybrid trains;
    • Vehicle manufactures with single or two battery systems for micro-hybrid and stop/stat markets;
    • Off grid power and storage for grid tied and non-grid tied applications;
    • Street lights and charging stations;
    • And numerous demonstration project:
    and we are not ignoring or abandoning these opportunities in any way – our main focus is on PowerCubes in several sizes for various power and storage applications and on heavy duty hybrid trucks."

     

    John, how can you continue to show such optimism for success when Axion does not?
    5 Jul 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    In the current Investors Presentation which is only *10* months old it mentions that work is still ongoing. Its toward the back
    5 Jul 2014, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    After three decades of writing SEC filings, I understand management's need to remain cautious while establishing a hierarchy of pending opportunities.

     

    By this spring there was little room for doubt that PowerCubes and ePower were the applications that had the shortest path to sales and were drawing the greatest attention, but there is no reasonable way to read the disclosure as suggesting that either automotive or rail were dead ends.

     

    The recent completion of the NS 999 is fairly conclusive proof that the first item on the list wasn't dead, or for that matter moribund. I see nothing suggest that automotive is different.

     

    Just for grins I'd like you to identify just one battery company, any battery company, with a novel technology that successfully implemented your "take it to the street without adequate funding to do the job right" strategy.
    5 Jul 2014, 07:01 PM Reply Like