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  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    ZZZzzzzZZZzz, err, oh hey.
    23 Jul, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Couldn't resist!!
    23 Jul, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    thumbs up for @altoonaworks
    23 Jul, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Gee...talk about crickets. I come here 5 hours after APH puts up the new Concentrator, and I'm the 4th post.
    Good night all.
    23 Jul, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Google Offers $1 Million Prize For Anyone Who Can Build A Better Power Inverter

     

    http://onforb.es/1pdSCKX

     

    >>
    Why would Google, the IEEE and a few other companies like Cree and Transphorm pay $1 million for a better small-scale power inverter? Probably because the value of such a device – i.e., “a kW-scale power inverter with a power density of at least 50 Watts per cubic inch” – is the key to unlocking billions of dollars of commercial value stranded in the electric power grid.

     

    Here is what Google says:

     

    "We believe that inverters will become increasingly important to our economy and environment as solar PV, batteries, and similar power sources continue their rapid growth. More broadly, similar forms of power electronics are everywhere: in laptops, phones, motors drives, electric vehicles, wind turbines, to give just a few examples. We expect that the innovations inspired by this prize will have wide applicability across these areas, increasing efficiency, driving down costs, and opening up new uses cases that we can’t imagine today. It also doesn’t hurt that many of these improvements could make our data centers run more safely and efficiently."
    <<
    24 Jul, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Google is actually working on grid projects. Their job posts show that.
    24 Jul, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Wow, and great news. Crappy inverters have been the bane of batteries since Edison. Higher power densities, which would lead to less inefficiency (heat losses) and lower capital costs will be a huge benefit to greater use of batteries.

     

    Let's hope somebody is working in tandem for inverters that have a greater range on input voltage, which would greatly improve the effectiveness of Bio-carbons and super-capacitors.
    24 Jul, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Another link about Google inverter project: http://onforb.es/1z7Y60R

     

    An unwelcome aside: Note how Google is trying to get OTHERS to work on their project, and not wrap everything up in NDAs. Trying to build an eco-system...
    24 Jul, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Next several weeks should start to show whether DDG has energized AXPW. Note not re-energized

     

    New CEO - feet on ground - start moving forward

     

    Agree with JP - the latest investor presentation suggests new doors creaking open and old doors continuing

     

    Any of those doors can lead to significant and sustainable revenues

     

    Let's slam one open in the next 5 months and 2015 will be the year we have all been looking forward to
    24 Jul, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Battery startup Leyden Energy is selling off patents & equipment. Is it shutting down?

     

    http://bit.ly/1z7rEM1
    24 Jul, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like Leyden just ran out of investors to fund continued product marketing and development without a clear path to sales growth. That could never happen to Axion, though.
    24 Jul, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    Hi ii,
    A good quote we can all agree with from your link.

     

    "Making batteries as a startup is hard. Particularly a startup backed by venture capitalists that are used to getting quick returns on Internet companies. Battery breakthroughs take time, and breaking into the commercial market is tough."
    24 Jul, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, that stood out for me as well. I was also going to post it but decided meh. Like we don't already know it.
    24 Jul, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    Leyden Energy says that they had made great progress on a silicon electrode that would replace the graphite/carbon electrode. Since the attractiveness of using silicon in a Li-ion battery is another one of the much needed holy grail breakthroughs for these batteries, perhaps they should have focused on further silicon research. They could have partnered up with other research teams in the silicon electrode area.

     

    Regarding Leyden's longevity, the statistics are that most startups (perhaps 90%) never make it to their tenth birthday.
    24 Jul, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    GUGS offers 100K @ $0.13 pre-market.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    who's GUGS?
    24 Jul, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    GUGS is Guggenheim's Market Maker symbol.

     

    http://bit.ly/WFxOW0
    24 Jul, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    100k bought, now let;s get going to .14!
    24 Jul, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • todi18
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Hi folks. I just came back to say my sock drawer is now full. Thanks for the cheap shares this week. I am going back to watch Groundhog Day again. My prediction is $26.80 Aug 2015. It's either the share price or the total value of my AXION portfolio.
    24 Jul, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Heck, Now these guys sound like a true battery supplier.

     

    It slices, it dices....

     

    Formosa Plastics lithium-iron battery obtains international safety certifications

     

    "Formosa Plastics emphasized, the Formosa Plastics lithium iron battery is superior to lead-acid batteries primary due to its ability to increase sparkplug voltage to boost horsepower and conserve fuel. It also possesses an emergency standby power function and a stable current which extends the lifespan of automotive electronic components. In addition, the battery possess a short-circuit function which prevents electrical fires and has a lifespan five times that of lead-acid batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/1z7NNtM
    24 Jul, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Do they make x-ray glasses, too?
    24 Jul, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I'm very puzzled by this sentence. "Formosa Plastics emphasized, the Formosa Plastics lithium iron battery is superior to lead-acid batteries primary due to its ability to increase sparkplug voltage to boost horsepower and conserve fuel."

     

    Is spark plug voltage an issue automakers have had problems with?

     

    I was under the impression that spark plugs are only useful while the engine is running and the alternator carries operational loads instead of the battery. Have I missed something?
    24 Jul, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Spark plug voltage is a function of the coil, not the battery.

     

    http://bit.ly/1z7UNa4

     

    This is marketing hype nonsense for knuckleheads that buy magnets for their fuel lines and vortex cones for their air intakes.

     

    http://bit.ly/WFES5c
    24 Jul, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    There have been zillions of aftermarket "secret" car engine enhancers that boost spark plug voltage, special spark plugs, electrolyze water to HHO, etc, that gullible suckers have been buying.

     

    Spark plugs are not wired to batteries. Sparkplug use over 40,000 volts, not 12. http://bit.ly/WFFesz

     

    I think spark plug voltage may have been an issue back in the Model T days, but not in our lifetimes.
    24 Jul, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the confirmation. I was really worried that something had changed since my one semester of high-school auto shop in the late-60s.
    24 Jul, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Actually, nothing really has changed since your dad's high school auto shop days:

     

    http://bit.ly/WFH7FE
    24 Jul, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    SM - great Pop Mechanics article. Even funnier are the bozos and conspiracy nutjobs in the comments who claim the test was rigged, and that *their* pet product really does work!

     

    Like this comment from Nigeria: "there is a new technologically based fuel saving device which is capable of saving up to 50% of your fuel consumption. its last more than 20 years, it has been proved. contact +234 073 5088 111"
    24 Jul, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Significant work has been done in how fuel is atomized and how it is ignited in the fuel chamber. Makes a big difference. Have there been issues where the electrical system cannot supply a consistent level of power to the ignition source? I've not seen anything on it but I've not looked too hard either. Maybe some of the new high performance spark igniters tax the electrical system more? Doubtful but...

     

    http://bit.ly/1z816KN
    24 Jul, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Auquapulser claims their "plasma plugs" are better because "an audible shockwave is unleashed as the gases are 'cracked' which is the same physical phenomenon as a clap of lightning causing thunder."

     

    Powerful magic!

     

    It is not the spark that powers the engine, but the combustion that it initiates. Good enough spark for consistent and reliable initiation of combustion is all that is needed. Too much current just burns out your plugs prematurely.

     

    The best magic today comes from ECU's that can vary the timing of the spark to match the fuel delivery and power needs demanded by the vehicle. That can save fuel and engine wear.

     

    Aftermarket ECU's can improve performance, as can devices that reduce the intake and output restrictions required by EPA for sound and emissions compliance. Magical spark plugs just make hucksters rich.
    24 Jul, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    SM: There is however one "magical spark plug" I believe in. Long ago, used Bosch Platinum Plus. Saw a very small increase in fuel mileage. Later on started with Bosch Platinum + 4 - another small increase.

     

    But the big savings wasn't fuel and even the apparent faster ignition on cold cranking wasn't the big thing.

     

    The big thing for me was they didn't deteriorate. Ran them 100K plus with little apparent wear and even less carbon build-up (back in the days before the OEMs started doing things that helped all that).

     

    I liked that they performed well many times longer than standard in both my '68 442 and my Corvettes.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    SMaturn, Yes, You can buy ECU's to optimize the type of performance you want fom your engine. The OEM's have to make sure the system meets not only the customers needs but also EPA requirements. Thus they are a compromise in many areas. So yes, you can buy after market controllers that can be installed for specific needs but then you have to revert back if you have to meet state inspections for road vehicles if the controller you installed takes the vehicle outside of acceptable emissions limits.

     

    Many moons ago I worked for guys in the ECU design division for GM. Many were into road racing in various forms and they had programmed for themselves and others ECU's for the vehicles that they were running. It was about the time GM was introducing, once and for all, fuel injection which IIRC was on Buick first. They fell behind and had to start their programs with Bosch injectors. I did some mass flow stands for them so they could sort them by performance into groups. Then they tuned the regulators on the fuel rails to the specific groups of injectors.
    24 Jul, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, back when I was a bit more gearheaded, I fooled around with the intake and exhaust on my SportTrac, putting on a K&N cone filter in place of the restrictive airbox (EPA requirement) and aftermarket pipes that gave me a few more ponies, but not a big change in mileage.

     

    I thought about trying an aftermarket ECU, after reading about them online in forum discussions, but decided not to mess with the potential NYS emissions finagling.

     

    Nowadays, I just want the best German engineering I can afford and let the onboard computer make all those decisions. Very happy with my X3, with the Eco Pro mode button on most of the time, and the Sport mode button punched occasionally when I need to feel like a rocket pilot.
    24 Jul, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    You may be right, there, as premium materials can make a more durable and reliable plug. But despite the essentially unchanged function of spark plugs over the past century, the materials and manufacturing and electronic control systems have come an amazingly long way in our lifetimes.

     

    Many was the plug I unfouled and regapped, or threw away 'cause it was too cooked, back in my "impetuous yute" of riding two-stroke motorbikes. Plugs today seem to last forever, due to the many refinements in automotive technology.
    24 Jul, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    "Many was the plug I unfouled and regapped, or threw away 'cause it was too cooked"

     

    Ditto on that!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    "palm palms" to Rick for doubling down on "bozos". Now, more importantly, should it be "bozoes"?
    24 Jul, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    I like the 6 VDC battery! ;-P
    24 Jul, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Ed, I like the broader category of bozoids.

     

    Not all have orange hair and red noses. Many lurk about you every day, and you only recognize them when they open their mouths, when rainbows and unicorns and pink spotted toads are all that emerge.
    24 Jul, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    "I was under the impression that spark plugs are only useful while the engine is running "

     

    There's a smart-ass in the house, huuh
    smart-ass in the house, yeahhh,
    smart-ass in the house, huuuh,
    ...
    jus' singin'
    24 Jul, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    "bozoids", definitely , good coin, SMaturin
    24 Jul, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • KillaCycle
    , contributor
    Comments (549) | Send Message
     
    The engine must first start, before it can run, and spin the alternator. Thus, sufficient spark plug voltage (and system voltage) is a serious consideration when the starter is still turning.

     

    However, the "boost HP and conserve fuel" is indeed just PR hype.

     

    You may now return to your non-puzzled mode.
    25 Jul, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, KC, for enlightening us poor ignorant plebes.

     

    You selfless service here is commendable and shall ultimately be rewarded in the next life.

     

    Soon, let us hope.
    25 Jul, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Killa, How's your chart-reading class going? Got it figured out yet?
    25 Jul, 05:38 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    So, you wanna grow up to be an automotive industry lawyer, a private detective, or a writer of fiction? And kids, if you borrow the car from the parents and think what they don't know won't hurt them ... you might think twice about them offering you the new car "for safety" :-)

     

    As Weird-Al pointed out ... those Amish might be on to something!

     

    What Happens When Your Car Gets Hacked?
    Connected cars could give cybercriminals a whole new range of targets.

     

    http://bit.ly/1z7Wqo3

     

    "Many automobiles don't have a layered approach to security right now. They just assume somebody can't break in.… You want to segregate portions."

     

    And while the internal workings of today's cars lack protection, the software of tomorrow's vehicles will add another challenge. With Android and CarPlay on the horizon—and most automakers on board—a whole generation of cars will soon hit the road en masse with virtually identical operating systems.

     

    "The new operating systems will make the market less heterogeneous, which potentially is more dangerous," said Vicente Diaz, a security researcher at Kaspersky Lab. "Attackers will be more familiar with these systems."

     

    ...

     

    Hackers could steal a driver's location data or use Bluetooth to activate a phone's microphone and eavesdrop.

     

    ...

     

    These violations won't necessarily happen because a hacker targets a specific car. In most cases, hackers will gain access to a user's online profile first, then wait for it to get linked to a vehicle. "[If] the app in your phone or your Web portal credentials get hacked, an attacker will have access to the data of your car," Diaz said. "They could see all the details of your car, even its location, and in some cases be able to unlock the doors. All this may start with a simple phishing message, so consumers should be aware of what this new ecosystem represents and the consequences."

     

    Automakers say they take such threats seriously and are working to prevent them, though some point out that no one has successfully pulled off a real-world wireless hack. But that doesn't mean it can't or won't happen, security experts warn. "Manufacturers need to really start considering what happens when someone does compromise a portion of their vehicle instead of assuming no one will," Valasek said.

     

    For now, he and his fellow "good-guy" hackers will keep making cars go haywire, warning of the threats they expose and hoping their finds help keep the road free of malicious hackers."
    24 Jul, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Noahfreak
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I think we had to start worrying about such things the moment mechanically controlled throttles stopped being used. Also with the advent of braking, gear shifting and steering systems that don't require any mechanical linkages, the software then is in 100% control of the vehicle. If someone were to take such a vehicle's computer and say, drop in a virus that locks open the throttle after a certain speed is reached, while simultaneously interfering with any braking and shifting inputs from the driver? Well, you know what happens next. Much scarier than someone tapping into your in-car conversations.
    24 Jul, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    Security for vehicle based or deployed software is a serious issue. The number of big name corporations that are getting hacked into in some of the simplest of software hacking ways is beyond belief. The same thing can happen with a vehicle.

     

    Depending on how the overall system is designed and coded, it is theoretically possible for someone to hack into the car's BMS and, of course, do serious damage.
    24 Jul, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    An old friend from Lyon just sent me a link to an article on Proterra's last round of VC financing which values the company at about $200 million (over 10x 2013 sales).

     

    http://on.wsj.com/WFHfEZ

     

    Since VCs typically want to pay less than half of the expected IPO price, a $200 million valuation is pretty rich IMO.
    24 Jul, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I would think we would need to know 2012 and anticipated 2014 revenue to judge if the 10x sales is merely rich or near obscene. If they are growing at 50% for the the foreseeable future then they could go from 20M to near 70M in just a few years or so. I would love to see Axion ramp like that as well; but with seemingly year over year flat sales - Axion will never get to be a 10X member.
    25 Jul, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Good to see that Proterra is finally making a go of it. I remember when I was invested in ALTI and they were going to be selling their Li-Ti batteries to Proterra. Unfortunately that seems to have taken about 5 years longer than planned and ALTI couldn't wait for the orders, and so sold out to the Chinese.
    24 Jul, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    CA pumped storage hydroelectric project to provide state clean energy

     

    "Under contract to and working closely with Eagle Crest Energy, GEI Consultants led the consultant team responsible for licensing efforts, which began in 2007..."

     

    http://bit.ly/1z8sXKF
    24 Jul, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1z8ufFJ
    "As of mid-2014, more than 200 megawatts of energy storage projects have applied to interconnect with the state’s grid, according to recent data from state grid operator California ISO (PDF). In other words, project developers have received the market signal of a 1.3-gigawatt mandate and proposed enough storage to provide nearly double that amount over the coming years."
    24 Jul, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    In an attempt to contribute something to the APC besides complaining about other people’s comments, I went on a short information safari regarding the Washington DC Naval base/Axion project.
    In January of 2012. Axion announced that it was awarded a purchase order from SilTek Inc. confirming their participation in a Zero Energy Building in the Washington DC Naval Yard.
    http://bit.ly/1z8uh03
    In that announcement, The Stella Group, Ltd, President Scott Sklar commented, "The PbC batteries offer the right capabilities with their hybrid storage able to handle varying loads for net-zero energy buildings and smart grid applications that are being scaled by the US Navy and other services within the Department of Defense. In addition, PbC batteries are 100% recyclable and made in the USA." Sklar, early advisor to NAVFAC on this project and various other ongoing DOD projects and Adjunct Professor at The George Washington University, stated further, "Both the Department of Defense and private industry are increasing their focus on renewable energy as a means of decreasing electric grid failures, reducing carbon and particle-emitting coal-fired plants, strengthening national security and diminishing US dependence on foreign oil. Utilization of advanced energy storage technologies, particularly economically feasible technologies such as PbC-enabled PowerCubes (of all sizes), can be a leading means of accomplishing those goals."

     

    That was a very complimentary quote, so I asked Mr.Sklar via email what he knew about the current state of that project. Mr. Sklar very graciously obliged my curiosity with this reply; “Building #126 at The Washington Navy Yard is now commissioned as a net-zero building. The photovoltaics, two wind turbines, and battery bank are working well and as expected.”

     

    I was a bit frustrated with the generic language describing the system.
    When the Navy speaks about the project they refer to the system in generic terms as well, describing Axion’s contribution to the project as “cutting edge hybrid-gel battery system which can power the building in the event of a power failure.”

     

    http://1.usa.gov/SXdWYO

     

    When I responded to Mr Skarl’s comment that I did not see any mention of the PbC battery system regarding building #126 but I assumed these are PbC batteries, and I was hoping for more specifics in the update, and voiced my frustration regarding generic language, he responded as follows:

     

    “Yes, official statements are generic and try not to highlight companies. The battery system is the axion System, and I have been tracking its performance for NAVFAC, and it has been working fine. This building will become a teaching building for NAVFAC, but due to Navy leadership changes, it has yet to be inserted into the new training queue - probably by the end of the year when the new Navy Asst Sec for Energy get her final Senate confirmation.”

     

    Scott Sklar is, I would assume, a busy person, yet he took the time to field my questions.

     

    From the Navy public affairs update from September 13, 2012, the end of the update says: According to Capt. Branch, regional engineer for Naval District Washington, "NDW now intends to track all the actual operations and sustainment costs and compare them to other 'control facilities' of similar size and usage. We not only need to know the capital costs vs. economic return; we need to know the level of sustainment needed to keep it working."

     

    In further information search, I asked the energy storage exchange why the Washington DC Naval base installation wasn’t listed in there database and sent them a link to the information. They said thank you for the information and they would try to get the page uploaded shortly. Below is a link to the database.

     

    http://bit.ly/1z8uh05;size_kwh_ul=

     

    I know the information is not technical at all, but perhaps as the navy evaluates the systems performance, specifics will become available to the general public. Evidently the information is good enough at this point to help spur further sales as this was referenced as part of the decision making process for the most recent PowerCube purchase.
    24 Jul, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Great sleuthing! That helps explain why nothing has happened yet. Government!
    24 Jul, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Good investigation, Kevin. We all hope it gets masticated into something specifically positive for Axion, and publicized.

     

    Any possibility of getting the data that Axion had shared with Bysolar?

     

    </dreaming>
    24 Jul, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    This is why I love the Axion Power Concentrator.
    24 Jul, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Kevin. It is good to hear the project is still active and working as expected.
    24 Jul, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Great effort and results Kevin!

     

    Thanks for that!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!
    24 Jul, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • abcd9876
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Thanks a lot.
    24 Jul, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Good work and report, Kevin. Scott Sklar was working with Axion and Siltek re- the Washington Navy Yard Net Zero building and works with a very wide range of solar and wind power firms. He has expressed to me in 2012 the view that Axion would benefit from working with a wider range of system integrators.
    24 Jul, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... That is heresy. More people knowing more performance information about the PbC and using said information to develop unsanctioned application is a totally unacceptable situation. Axion has never felt the need to have hundreds of application that might only need a few hundred to a few thousand capacitors per year. Better to put all the eggs in a very few baskets with mega potential and hope.
    24 Jul, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    RK- I find your post puzzling. You know your not getting any info on axion data with bysolar, yet you are quick to dismiss any continued connection with an automotive OEM due to a lack of data shared or public press.

     

    Simply put- the lack of news doesn't mean there isn't any news. Until I read something that states the PBC tech has failed, it has passed.

     

    When I read that the tech has failed to deliver on promised performance, I will consider selling the very next day. Have I missed a failure notice?
    25 Jul, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Rhyse, You'll probably only get that it passed with the signing of a contract and then it might not state with who the contract is to ultimately supply. And you will not get anything about the technology failing. And it's not necessarily a failure per se. Just might not be the path taken and it will be book shelved. Or maybe it will not be adopted until the technology "matures", err, I mean becomes a lower cost commodity. Or many other reasons. Anyway, most likely a pass or fail will not be seen in the public as discrete digital events.
    25 Jul, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    rhyse12 - I was asking for the data that Axion was able to share with Bysolar from the Navy project. The Navy project may be public information. If the Navy had required Axion to sign an NDA, it is highly unlikely that Axion would be permitted to share such NDA-protected information with a potential customer. The press release from Axion stated that they did share Navy data with Bysolar.

     

    I hope my comments were not interpreted to mean that I thought the Navy project failed technically. We do know that there have been no repeat orders. If, as has been discussed earlier, the lack of sales has been strictly from government lethargy, the positive technical results ought to be trumpeted loudly.

     

    Whether Bysolar should or will share their data is a different issue between private companies.

     

    You wrote: "When I read that the tech has failed to deliver on promised performance, I will consider selling the very next day. Have I missed a failure notice?"

     

    The more serious issue, to me, is why we have NOT received any reports on successes. No prototype orders have turned into commercial repeat orders, except possibly Bysolar, which is ambiguous.
    25 Jul, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    What is ambiguous about it? They ordered one, and then they ordered four more.
    25 Jul, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1041) | Send Message
     
    RK-

     

    Thank you for explaining the bear view. As you state;
    The more serious issue, to me, is why we have NOT received any reports on successes. No prototype orders have turned into commercial repeat orders, except possibly Bysolar, which is ambiguous.

     

    If the company can use data from the Navy Yards with Bysolar then the marketplace should have that information. Maybe just maybe that information would cause 1-3 others Bysolars to step forward. If Bysolar is right and their clients can create a project with a positive payback they will not publish it and instead use it themselves.

     

    If AXPW can publish a paper that says; "Here is what we expected with the Naval Yard when we went in and here is what happened:

     

    We are within X% of our goals for FR, batteries have held up through x cycles, etc. That is confidence beyond the powercube.
    25 Jul, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "Until I read something that states the PBC tech has failed, it has passed."

     

    General MacArthur - "Old soldiers never die. They just fade away."

     

    25 Jul, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "They ordered one, and then they ordered four more. "

     

    Correction. They ordered one and then they signed a memorandum of understanding that they would buy four more IF THE FIRST ONE performed as advertised.
    25 Jul, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "announced today that it has received a follow-on purchase order for four more PowerCube™ energy storage systems from its strategic partner, a NJ-based solar installer for commercial and residential markets".

     

    Check the PR in the header - no mention of MOU.

     

    However, we have speculated here that the follow-on order might have been conditional, but we have no way to know, of course.

     

    So unless management is intentionally lying through omission, it's not, IMO, safe to assume an MOU.

     

    It's also not safe to infer a "firm dilevery" P.O. - so we are left to our own devices, as usual.

     

    Um, maybe they buried an MOU statement in some other report I missed?

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    That is simply prudent contract writing.
    25 Jul, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    PY - As I remember, there are ambiguities regarding what application Bysolar's customer will use it for, and whether the "repeat order" is a real binding order or more of a no-obligation "letter of (sorta) intent".

     

    My understanding is the first unit is still non-operating due to regulatory complications. I see it difficult to see Bysolar's customer purchasing additional PCs if they have regulatory problems.

     

    Maybe I am wrong and all four additional Powercubes will be delivered (sold) in a reasonable time frame. Hope so.

     

    Consequently, I called the additional 4 PC deal "ambiguous". Which adjective would you like? Iron-clad?

     

    25 Jul, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The last unit was not operating in mid-May because of regulatory delays but Tom said it would be operating by June. Assuming that there was absolutely no progress between mid-May and late-July strikes me as a bit of a stretch.
    25 Jul, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    "... strikes me as a bit of a stretch".

     

    I think many of the folks here are all out of elasticity and now always expect the past to be repeated. I do remember when we used to habitually "stretch" to the positive side though.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Poor babies!
    25 Jul, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "However, we have speculated here that the follow-on order might have been conditional, but we have no way to know, of course."

     

    IINM, TG indicated in the last CC follow-on deliveries on the tentative time-table given are contingent on the buyer seeing "proof of the pudding" on their first PC installation before proceeding further.

     

    Whether one calls it an MOU, LOI, or sales contract, thus far the agreement announced presents about as much Axion revenue reliability as the 10 battery pack ePower Engines Systems "sales contract" last year which to date has led to delivery (per latest John Petersen report) of one or two battery packs. I see lots of form in high profile with indeterminate substance.
    25 Jul, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    ePower expected to progress much more rapidly than it has. We may have been overly optimistic on our timetable when we placed the order, but the delays are OUR fault, not Axion's. If you want to complain about the slow pace at ePower lay it at my feet because I own my problems without shame. Don't lay them at the feet of a management team that can't make our crew work any faster or solve our problems for us.
    25 Jul, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Likewise for NSC or BySolar or BMW timetables.
    25 Jul, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Check the transcipt linked in the header. Use the search for "In an event subsequent to the end of the first quarter" and read forward.

     

    There's some potential ambiguity there that could allow us to interpret the "But first our customer would like to see our unit in service on his property, instead of just relying on our onsite unit revenue numbers. To that end, the first unit sold in October will be operating early next month. Problems with the Building Inspector Division, in New Jersey totally unrelated to us have delayed the project to date." that on my initial (to quick?) read I thought was the NY customer with 12 potential sites.

     

    On re-reading now, it looks to me like you're correct.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    JP - Are your elastic stretchies referring to the hiring of a new CFO by the end of May, the rollout of 999 by the first week of June, or did I miss the press release about the magical, transformational change in the NJ bureaucracy?

     

    My personal experience with NJ bureaucracy has been what should have been a minor state EPA issue that has dragged out for 15 years, and still in process. Like the Bysolar project, my bureaucratic morass is not about money, but arcane (absurd) state regulations that contradict federal regulations. Often one can't even get a phone call returned within two months, much less resolve a problem.

     

    While Axion may be a black hole from which only quantum information escapes, I can't find any indications of operation from Bysolar, either. I would think they would be pretty proud of it.
    25 Jul, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Seriously Rick, why are you here? You are not a shareholder, by your own admission. You are not getting anything (read ANYTHING) you have been demanding from anybody. No info, no nothing. Which leads one to suspect you have suspect motives.

     

    I'm one of the group that likes your input, but every once in a while I think the question is begged: Why are you STILL here?
    25 Jul, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "If you want to complain about the slow pace at ePower lay it at my feet because I own my problems without shame."

     

    Notwithstanding the fact that my remark addressed reliability of Axion revenue associated with their press releases, it is very big of you, John, to accept responsibility for something that occurred (June 12, 2013; http://bit.ly/UswYdC) prior to your employment by ePower (October, 2013; http://bit.ly/Usx0SR)

     

    Perspectives differ with respect to you 'owning' your problems.
    25 Jul, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I was ePower's lawyer when the order was placed and subsequently moved up the food chain to EVP..

     

    The date of my employment has no bearing on ePower's expectations when the purchase order was issued. ePower's delays have been attributable to issues that ePower had to grapple with and Axion had nothing to do with either creating or resolving those issues.

     

    Despite the fond desires of a vendor's stockholders, a vendor can only move product when his customer is willing to accept it. It's a rope relationship and Axion can only move product when the customer pulls on the rope. Arguing that management should be pushing harder on the rope is absurd.
    25 Jul, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: With that thinking, I guess I shouldn't be here either, given I now only own a novelty amount of AXPW.

     

    In my opinion, Rick's vested interest in Axion is as high as nearly anyone's.

     

    He has put an insane amount of time and energy into all things Axion related, and has provided tremendous insights into a multitude of other energy related issues discussed here on the APCs. I have learned a lot from Rick.

     

    Rick sees exactly what I see (and he and I are not the only ones). Axion is in a perilous situation. Today's after hour trade that HTL mentioned below (400K @ 11.5 cents), is indicative of FORCING Axion to go to the max RS of 50:1.

     

    The RS is part one of the hat trick. If the price plummets further, which I did predict right after the RS announcement -- I predicted a 20% drop -- and that has now been far exceeded, it may have been a mistake for Axion leadership to not have had an even higher than a 50:1 split.

     

    Part two of the hat trick is the up listing. As JP has repeatedly written, NASDAQ scrutinizes a company's balance sheet that requests to get up listed. Until those hopeful sales happen, there's no way that NASDAQ will allow Axion into their exchange.

     

    Further, I have read that it is now expected that the toll contract will be continued beyond the end of this year, despite TG stating it will be winding down, despite that East Penn will be completing the build out of more factory space to make AGMs that Axion is now making for them. What was written in the document that JP turned up is nebulous at best. I'll go with what TG stated. So, I expect revenues will be sharply decreasing come December, when the toll contract winds down.

     

    BTW, the toll contract continuing, or not, would be the very first question I would ask during the next CC. If the contract is winding down, and sales continue to limp, then Axion will be forced to make layoffs.

     

    This will be what little public information will be available for the VIPE (or God forbid) or PIPE investors to consider, as this issue has been publically discussed before.

     

    Which takes us to part three of the hat trick -- finding benign investors. Who will want what I want, what I suspect we all want, a clear path to recurring and sustaining revenues.

     

    It's completely obvious that this path will not be coming from Norfolk anytime soon. Nor from ePower. And TG has basically implied (and is on record) that BMW/automotive is on the back burner. We're then left with one-offs like the delayed Bysolar. In my opinion, one-offs will not anytime soon qualify as sustainable revenue, given the poor sales we've had to endure this year, last year, and I expect next year, too.

     

    Axion Power took a huge risk in announcing this idea of pulling off a hat trick, neatly. But the simple fact is that Axion is running out of money, and will once again soon be desperate to raise money, which limits their negotiating leverage. A classic case of history rhyming.

     

    Despite all the hopium written here on the APCs, and the attacks against folks who write something akin to what I wrote above, and I do fret and bum out reading bearish comments, I also enjoy reading the bearish comments, depressing as they are. They are needed for perspective.

     

    I, like Rick, have put thousands of hours into AXPW, and I lost over 6 digits when I sold AXPW. I believe I do have a vested interest in Axion Power, even though I probably should just unplug and move on.

     

    But this blog is highly addictive, the technology is fantastic, the people here, for the most part are ardent researchers, really bright; I have learned a lot, and many have become great cyber buddies.

     

    I truly hope that Axion leadership can pull off the hat trick contemporaneously. But I have my strong doubts, and will stay on the sideline until all of these soon forthcoming issues are resolved.

     

    I know, I know...I may miss the train. But from my perspective, the train is not yet at the station. Not anywhere close.
    25 Jul, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2657) | Send Message
     
    "It's a rope relationship and Axion can only move product when the customer pulls on the rope. Arguing that management should be pushing harder on the rope is absurd. "

     

    John, Axion does not even attempt to help its position in the public eye. I could say more but its not necessary. You and I both know the failures. I just choose to talk about them.

     

    At some point the market is right. Flush.

     

    DDG - where are you? Will the real slim shady please stand up ...
    25 Jul, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2657) | Send Message
     
    But wait guys, sales are coming.

     

    I mean really, as the last time, there are really only diehards left. Tell us the truth about where things stand.

     

    Material omission is a crime too.
    25 Jul, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    The DieHard was a good battery back in the day, I thought. Then I found Interstate.
    25 Jul, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (880) | Send Message
     
    "Today's after hour trade that HTL mentioned below (400K @ 11.5 cents), is indicative of FORCING Axion to go to the max RS of 50:1."
    This makes the authorized float easily enough to buyout the company, if someone has that intention.
    25 Jul, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Welcome to the club.
    25 Jul, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "Arguing that management should be pushing harder on the rope is absurd. "

     

    ABSURDITY is your interpretation of my remarks as "Arguing that management should be pushing harder on the rope." Use of ridicule highlights lack of substantive argument.
    25 Jul, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    " The more serious issue, to me, is why we have NOT received any reports on successes. No prototype orders have turned into commercial repeat orders, except possibly Bysolar, which is ambiguous."

     

    Agree. Success in this arena is ultimately judged by making money. I like the tech, but invested in it to make a return on my investment.
    26 Jul, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    "Anyway, most likely a pass or fail will not be seen in the public as discrete digital events."

     

    Agreed. I do put some faith into the reports posted by JP, but so far the tech has delivered as promised for E-Power. That the ghost has risen from the grave in Altoona, and the Navy seems pleased with the tech. That provides three separate unrelated industry data points that confirm my belief in the PBC tech.

     

    That is the basis for my continued optimism in this company. Am I happy with the return on my investment, heck no. But the tech continues to prove itself, so I still expect success.
    26 Jul, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I missed your answer earlier. No slight was intended and I don't want anyone to leave and was not suggesting in any way that he should consider doing so.

     

    I was curious why Rick maintains such an active presence here. That's a lot of invested time.

     

    It was almost a rhetorical question and perhaps a dumb one as well. Why else would he be here other than to inform an inevitable re-investment decision?
    27 Jul, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    EM: "... Why else would he be here".

     

    Altruism? I know I invest some time towards that goal. That aspect of my personality is not related to my position.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (441) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, I follow these blogs even though I have no position in AXPW. Mostly for the reason you stated, to one day have a position if it seems viable. That being said, I wouldn't call it "inevitable", but I do see the potential. Like JP said, I am sure there a lot of people watching carefully on the sidelines like myself waiting for the right time.
    And if not, this blog does contain very knowledgeable people and the entire storyline is interesting and educational in itself.
    27 Jul, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Industry to Obama: We're BEGGING you for a national energy policy (and here's what should be in it)

     

    http://bit.ly/1z8wM2o
    24 Jul, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Re: SA What's with the new up-arrow and down-arrow clickable icons next to the "NEW" designation word? They seem randomly highlighted and clickable or dimmed and not… I've not dared to try clicking.
    24 Jul, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC, I tried it. It scrolls you up or down through the new comments so you don't have to search for them on the entire page.
    24 Jul, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    If it works, that augurs to be a super-welcomed improvement for following new comments in this blog!

     

    (I've spent sooooooo much boring time scrolling to try to find the next new comment…)

     

    And so it seems the highlighted/dimmed factor is =not=random but reflects the topmost and bottommost of the new comments!
    24 Jul, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: YOWZAH!That a feature I requested back in ... 2009? 2008? 2010?

     

    Nice to know they are listening to *someone* somewhere!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Very NICE! Thanks. Me likey.

     

    Let's hope we get some other good things that take time to bear fruit. ;-D
    24 Jul, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Sohkubo
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Very nice. I've been using the "Seeking New" plugin for Chrome all this time, though it's been a little bit buggy. http://bit.ly/1iOemxt

     

    I don't know why I didn't share this on the APC previously. Shyness. Secretive hoarder by nature. NDAs.
    Completely unnecessary now of course.
    24 Jul, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Nice to know. Thanks, ii.

     

    Unfortunately, the feature introduced a quirk that apparently comes into play if one responds to a "new" message. Both the "new" message and the reply are labeled as "new" with the reply offset (indented) below the first "new". But, the entire 'New" line attached to the reply is not offset since 'report abuse' overlays 'like'.
    24 Jul, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    D-inv. Thanks. One other thing I learned recently as I pretty much never use the abuse button on purpose. I hit it by mistake but you now have an added layer of reporting required to send the abuse message. I think this is great because in the past I had sent a report abuse flag to SA by mistake.
    24 Jul, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    yeah, we wouldn't want to overload the overlord with work orders.
    25 Jul, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    SOB. It's all over. This is the end. It's 3 and 2, 2 outs, bottom of the ninth. Come on DDG. Make something happen.
    24 Jul, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if there were physical brawls on the trading floors when it was all done face to face.

     

    Like I want to strangle the former holder of the last 95000 shares traded.
    24 Jul, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    I hear you - the comments on the Navy Yard would seem to put a little life into things, when people see them.
    24 Jul, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    I guess it still goes on: http://read.bi/1z8DIN6
    http://bit.ly/1z8DK7y
    24 Jul, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Patrick - If I wrote something like that, folks would be all over me. "It ain't over till it's over" http://bit.ly/1z8F3nd
    24 Jul, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    It is satirical. I think it is perfectly clear that I'm not throwing in the towel nor would I actually commit acts of violence.

     

    And to build on my earlier analogy, Axion is not losing. I call it a tie game. Extra innings to come but both the home team (strong long buyers, long term holders, and company employees) and visiting team (PIPERS, other weak longs and lurkers) are getting tired. Looking for a walk-off win during regular innings.

     

    At risk of being accused of a "personal attack", humor is not something I find in your comments, so the comparison is irrelevant. If you wrote that it was all over for Axion (the story being that they need sales now or they will be forced to sell the company to a hostile buyer and burn legacy shareholders in the process), people would take you seriously and be compelled to argue otherwise.
    24 Jul, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    For the sellers:

     

    http://bit.ly/WG5WkK
    24 Jul, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: Yep! Everyone knows that trading using a "guts" strategy is the way to go! :-\

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Eh, look what the followers of Tesla have managed to achieve by pushing their stock to over 200. Those investors helped ensure the success of Tesla. It's the same thing here. Both companies need money to run. It's a self fulfilling prophecy, based on whoever has more guts.
    24 Jul, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    With all due respect ... Balderdash!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> You're right. Predicting the future in economic markets is not something that is currently achievable by algorithms. Computers are fast, but not particularly good at decision making. Not to mention that markets suffer from the uncertainty principle: Observing information influences future events. I put my faith in my instincts and garnish it with small confirmations from quantifiable data points. 63% CAGR is pretty compelling.

     

    Facebook sports a similar revenue CAGR and trades at a market cap 25X their previous year's revenue as a $200 billion company.

     

    Axion Power had sales of $10 million in 2013, and has a market cap of $30 million.
    24 Jul, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think Mr Buffett might come down on Ranma's side in the great debate.

     

    "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

     

    I know Barron Rothschild would:

     

    "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

     

    The market price of a share of stock is always the lowest price the most motivated stockholder will accept - nothing more and nothing less. When any idiot can identify a long and painful history of major sellers who each had unique motivations that aren't shared by other holders, then the market price becomes meaningless and careful thought becomes critical.
    24 Jul, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Yep. But saying use guts to trade a toad is as good as guts to trade the princess of the ball is just plain silly.

     

    One has charm, charisma, a fat wad from sales of prior business, forecasts made and kept, ...

     

    The other has a trail of warts left on the skin of the market regardless of technical accomplishment and the great achievement of surviving a long and arduous business and technical development process.

     

    Investors and traders often do respond to the perceived voracity of management. To not do so might not be all that brilliant, in and of itself.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    EDIT: P.S. Those folks you mention buy companies with certain attributes that we currently don't see.
    24 Jul, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Didn't you hear about the new CEO thing?
    24 Jul, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Right now it's like the sister of my brother's girl friend that wants to double-date. I've never seen her yet.

     

    Blind dates sometimes don't turn out all that well even when they insist that her beauty is unsurpassed and .. dare I say it? "She's got a great personality"! ;)

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    Well, presumably you've met her sister. That should give you some idea...
    24 Jul, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you are a fantastic technical analyzer, but don't you think that method would be better suited towards other stocks? There isn't a surefire way to quantify Axion's future, so we're stuck with stock price history. History of our own making. We believe in the PbC but listen to the stock price. In this case you have to go with your gut. I don't know about you, but if the girlfriend is hot, I'd take a blind date with the sister any day.
    24 Jul, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Patrick & Rannma,

     

    I would actually prefer to meet her mother.

     

    I want to know what she will be like in twenty years.

     

    My hindsight is sometimes better than 20/20.
    24 Jul, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    SM: My hindsight used to get m slapped ... when I was young and not so discreet.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Eh, "veracity".

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: "... would be better suited towards other stocks? There isn't a surefire way to quantify Axion's future".

     

    There's no surefire way to quantify the future for *any* stock of which I'm aware.

     

    As to my TA being better suited ...

     

    My primary purpose was learning more. Secondary was to see if it could help foretell what might happen short-term. Seems to have some benefit, to me anyway.

     

    Switching from "trading on guts" to suggesting that what I'm doing here would be better suited to other stocks is just switching the subject to no good end.

     

    It's a dead end.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I purchased 10K shares at ~0.18 this year when the price first popped. That was done on guts. It was double my intended and regularly scheduled investment. I had willfully ignored certain TA details that HTL brought to our attention concerning late-day buying. And now I regret that "gutsy" purchase. I would rather have had 15K at 0.13.
    25 Jul, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    " I had willfully ignored certain TA details that HTL brought to our attention concerning late-day buying. And now I regret that "gutsy" purchase."

     

    As someone suggested, "Discretion is the better part of valor."
    25 Jul, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    ok, I'll bite, D-inv, as it's slow today, what are trying to say?

     

    btw, the someone was one of Shakespeare's characters and the saying was muttered and buttered with sarcasm.
    25 Jul, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "ok, I'll bite, D-inv, as it's slow today, what are trying to say?"

     

    Didn't 'try', Edmund. I said exactly what I intended to say.
    25 Jul, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    It was inscrutable, that's why I asked. Thought I made that evident.
    25 Jul, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    ok, I'll bite, D-inv, as it's slow today, what are trying to say?
    25 Jul, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    what happened D-inv? I thought we had a moment there, no? Talk to me, man.
    25 Jul, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Nice graph of where various entities forecast automotive grade battery pack prices to go.

     

    Affordable batteries for green energy are closer than we think.

     

    http://bit.ly/1z8Egme
    24 Jul, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Free isn't affordable enough for me with this happening regularly: http://bit.ly/WG2AOM
    24 Jul, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Finally ... an Altoonworks twitter update:

     

    "NS 999 is currently in the "test shed" getting final prep and testing before being tested in the yard."

     

    http://bit.ly/WGaQ0Z
    24 Jul, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Oh boy, oh boy! Rolling stock to be seen soon.

     

    Thanks WTB!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Oh, here it comes. Well, train, train...

     

    http://bit.ly/17e1FXV

     

    Thanks WTB!
    24 Jul, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Back on June 10, I predicted an August rollout for the 999. IIRC, the official word then was "first week of June".

     

    Patrick, how do I make this post humorous? (don't worry, no personal attacks received or perceived). Will you blow me a kiss if it rolls before next Friday?? LOL.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jul, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    I will concede right now that you were right and I was wrong about the rollout of NS 999 (I was originally thinking Feb-March).

     

    Sorry, no kisses.

     

    That being said, this would be an excellent time to initiate a position in AXPW. You're welcome.
    24 Jul, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget Johnny Cash's "I hear that train a'coming".

     

    http://bit.ly/17e1FXV

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I like this one I discovered on a video of a Juniata/Altoonworks "drone tour"

     

    http://bit.ly/1z99Ksg

     

    "Hard Driving Railroad Man" Artist Foxfire according to Youtube
    24 Jul, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    HTL' Uhhhhhh, you might not Hear this train...Maybe an old steam engine sound track would be nice!
    24 Jul, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh: No problem. Let me step over here onto the tracks and look north! =>8-O I'll let you know if I *see* anything coming!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    PY,

     

    Those who follow this board have known the train will roll (eventually). Is it your thinking that the "rollout" will motivate some lurkers who are waiting for a bigfoot sighting? I'm thinking the NS999 is mostly baked in but would like to be wrong on this one. I fear that placement and other concerns are the pps culprit - not the NS999 tardiness.
    24 Jul, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    It's the placement, but when the NS-999 rolls out and attracts new followers, let's give the negativity a rest for say a week?
    24 Jul, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    wtb - Wow, the drone tape really reinforced the challenges of maintaining operational security. Between tweet, telephoto cameras, drones, and "employee family day" videos, quite a lot is exposed.

     

    The 999, in the big picture, is trivial - some railroad buffs and the Axionistas care, but all in all, it is trivial (at least for now). Imagine something really important that would have billion dollar impacts, and trying to keep it a secret.

     

    [Whether the 999 rolled in "the first week of June" or doesn't until January 2015 isn't strategic information for anybody. As several have noted, the 999 is already baked into Axion's price, and the event of a single loco is only important to the curious - the "locoparazzi".]
    24 Jul, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    The 999's test success is anything but trivial. In the quotes below, Wick Moorman states their goals of reducing fuel usage, and Marta Stewart states that they intend on a lot of capex spending second half '14. A success could mean rapid follow on orders.

     

    The quotes are from yesterday's NSC CC:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jul, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    When the prototype rolls is trivial. When NS orders five more sets of batteries, that's monumental.
    24 Jul, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    You don't think a successful prototype significantly raises the chances of a follow up order? Or you don't want...
    24 Jul, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, rolling about the rail yard is already assumed and "baked into the price". A pretty prototype does not mean followup orders. Even a hugely "successful" prototype does not mean necessarily followup orders.

     

    A change of government and effective dissolution of the EPA along with low diesel prices would make the whole 999 program disappear, regardless of how wonderful the batteries are.

     

    OTOH, followup orders could come immediately, even before the prototype is fully fleshed out.
    24 Jul, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    You are making the assumption that it is baked into the price. The price has fluctuated in wide ranges without any NS-999 news. The delay from June most certainly is part of the reason AXPW fell from 18 cents to 13. Investors have assumed none of AXPW programs will ever take off. A successful prototype would hugely increase the odds. NSC business is a company maker - make no mistake, it has huge implications for stock value. The last time we had NSC news - Oct 2013 - the stock went from 10c to 15c. If things truly were "baked in" the stock price wouldn't move at all, because we've had no news. Yet we've had wide swings. There is not a single low volume OTC stock in any exchange that has all "baked in" by the market. It's the simple law of low sample statistics.

     

    "A change of government and effective dissolution of the EPA along with low diesel prices would make the whole 999 program disappear, regardless of how wonderful the batteries are."

     

    Really, what are the odds all these things happen? In the next year? There is no election, the EPA is supported by Obama, and oil prices have been going up.

     

    In addition, we have statements from NSC saying they want to reduce fuel, and increase capex.

     

    Be honest Rick, you are just saying those things not because you think them, but because you want Axion to fail so you won't be proven wrong for selling out.
    24 Jul, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2657) | Send Message
     
    Ranma -

     

    "The delay from June most certainly is part of the reason AXPW fell from 18 cents to 13. "

     

    The real reason is the realization that it appears nothing of a significant or material nature that has a reasonable probability of resulting in sales soon will materialize before this huge reverse split. RK outlines why the NS999 by itself is not currently that event.

     

    Go back to the spring of 2012 and look at the price change when the initial NS999 battery purchase was announced. Axion stock was trading at around .44. At that time, I looked at this investment from your shoes, but the sale had very little impact on price appreciation before it continued on its downward trend. Without something more, I think history will repeat itself. Although, there is not that much further down to go.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1rQtfCH
    24 Jul, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    You are wrong about that day in 2012. The charts don't show it, but that day had a significant spike because of NS-999. 2 million shares were dumped that morning, but the funds trying to exit at the time utilized market makers who were ready to sell into any buy surge. 2 million shares may not seem like a lot today, but back then shares were at .44 and <100k shares traded per day.

     

    2 million shares then is equal to 6.5 million shares today in dollar value. That amount of shares is certainly able to rally our stock.

     

    It's up to you whether you want to partake.
    24 Jul, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, honestly, I do not want Axion to fail. My years of positive comments had no impact; I am sure my "negative" comments will be equally impotent.

     

    As I wrote, if NSC buys a few sets of batteries, *that* would be great news, and positively impact the prospects for Axion.

     

    For everybody except the locoparazzi, having a prototype roll around a test track years after it was expected just is not that exciting. Sure, if the slug burns up in a fireball that is huge, negative news. However, I don't think anybody, even the trolls, think that is likely.

     

    Axion's falling share price is not primarily due to delayed rollout of Mr. 999. I have written more than many want to read my reasons for the declining price. Others have written their ideas why the price is declining. You seem to be unique in claiming the oh-so-slow rollout is the primary cause, and this fully expected rollout will alter the price direction. OK, you can believe what you want. I am not very effective in changing people's minds. But I wouldn't want you to waste a whole bunch of electrons trying to change my mind, either.

     

    Have a nice day.
    25 Jul, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, it is entirely possible for the NS999 to prove a successful prototype. To do so it need only perform to design expectations. Whether that is good enough to warrant building more will be revealed in future.

     

    We agree "The delay from June most certainly is part of the reason AXPW fell from 18 cents to 13." But my reason for believing the "delay from June" caused price to fall rests entirely on non-attainment of an objective, observable event on a timetable specified by Thomas Granville with no evident 'forcing'. Continued destruction of CEO credibility erodes investor confidence and share price.

     

    How many times does it take Charlie Brown to accord Lucy the credibility earned in repeated reneging on promise to hold the ball? Different "Charlie Brown"s have different learning curves. Thomas Granville's learning curve on making statements regarding (among other things) Norfolk Southern electric locomotive programs appears to have zero slope.

     

    Re-visit your thinking regarding elections. There most definitely are elections this year that can change the balance of power in the Senate, composition of the House, and several State governments. Should Democrats lose control of the Senate, changes at EPA, Justice, Homeland Security, and IRS could well follow. Change at the White House itself is not beyond reason.
    25 Jul, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    No election this year will have any near-term change effects on the EPA. By near-term, I mean ~4 year time horizon. EPA is run by the Executive branch. Any changes to EPA's mandate by congress would have to come in the form of changes to the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, RCRA, CERCLA, etc. With the divided congress, any such changes would be hard fought.
    25 Jul, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    PY - Right, thanks for the advice to invest.

     

    7/24 = $0.13
    7/25 = $0.115

     

    Down 13%

     

    :-X

     

    For those who forgot their ASCII http://bit.ly/1phomBL
    25 Jul, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I do not believe the NS999 is baked into the price.

     

    I'm personally a long-term holder but I save a certain amount of cash every month for investment purposes and it's undeniable that the sight of the NS999 would influence my decision as to whether to, when and how much more AXPW to purchase.

     

    D
    25 Jul, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    I stand by my recommendation to buy at $0.13.

     

    $0.115 is just an unexpected discount. All the better.

     

    So I took my own advice, and I bought more AXPW at $0.115.

     

    I am not always right, but I'm almost always right sooner or later. So it wasn't sooner, but the jury is still out on the verdict of who will be right or wrong in the end.

     

    If you have managed to make money trading in and out of this stock, god bless. But that's a dangerous game in my mind. Better to be a long holder.
    26 Jul, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1883) | Send Message
     
    PY> It need not be dangerous. One can be both trader and long term investor at the same time. Another way to describe it is 'risk management.'

     

    My trading of AXPW has gone very well netting me substantial sums. My core holding has done lousy so far (avg cost of $.197) but I'm not worried about that red ink long term. Still that core is dead money where time is ticking by with no return to show for it. Thankfully over the last 12 months there has been the lucrative trading.
    26 Jul, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again, PY: Down another 12.5%. (10.1 cents)
    28 Jul, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1533) | Send Message
     
    "oh boy, oh boy!" ---My sentiments exactly HTL.
    24 Jul, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Wick Moorman - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
    I think the way we would look at it and the way we do look at it is that it is just a data point on a trend line but it’s a trend line that we expect to continue to get better over time. We have a lot of technology out there that we’re employing to reduce fuel usage. That’s ramping up nicely.
    24 Jul, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Jeff Kauffman - Buckingham Research
    I hear you that the stock's up a lot with the market but is there a better use ultimately the reason to have a $5 billion, $6 billion of cash sitting on the books.

     

    Marta Stewart - Chief Financial Officer
    Well we don’t believe -- we do have that now, you’re correct. We don’t believe we’re going to end the year at that. As you’ve pointed out we’ve that $430 million debt maturity in September and we now currently plan to pay that off. So that’s going to be a use of the cash and also as I explained earlier we have higher CapEx in the second half of the year so we do not expect to end the year at this high at the cash level.
    24 Jul, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the NS999 is not going to be the first battery powered train;-(
    http://bit.ly/1z9LWVh
    24 Jul, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >ARGE ... The NS999 has never been "The First" battery powered locomotive. It is in fact the 4th generation.
    24 Jul, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Do you happen to know of any information that might exist on the internet concerning the first 3 iterations of battery powered locos?

     

    Was the BP3 lithium ion!?! <end snark>
    24 Jul, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Well the first successful one then, too bad Stafford isn't painted green:-(
    BTW, he was based on one from 1917:
    http://bit.ly/WGtqWW
    24 Jul, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco & ARGE ... The Corbin E2 is the beginning of generation One in above ground service. Starting in the 1880's there were some battery locomotives built for mine haulage. Anyway, it, the Corbin [GE], was built (I'm guessing here) from 1905 to 1909 and I can't find the numbers, but it wasn't many. It used nickel iron batteries & a third rail wiper. I call it a success because it was in service until the end of WW I.

     

    http://bit.ly/1zagIxp

     

    The beginning generation Two was built by Baldwin-Westinghouse. It began manufacture in 1916 and ended in 1928 in very low numbers. I'd call this successful also because it stayed in service, in a configuration unlike the photo linked, until the late 1940's and made the transition from NiFe to LAB batteries. The big improvement was the use of AC current & pantogragh along with battery power.

     

    http://bit.ly/1zagKVX

     

    The next generation was the Green Goat. Successful in numbers built but the tendency to burn down to the frame became a problem. Actually, the Goat was the least successful of all the attempts.
    24 Jul, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Thanks! Really appreciate it.

     

    Was wondering, were there any Green Goats that were all battery powered? I thought it was a strictly hybrid platform.
    24 Jul, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Think JP called this one.

     

    Nissan: We lose money on each Leaf replacement battery

     

    "Green Car Reports spoke to Nissan about these battery costs, and found that the automaker actually loses money on selling the replacement battery for the Leaf at the current price. Jeff Kuhlman, Nissan's vice president of global communications said, "Nissan makes zero margin on the replacement program. In fact, we subvent every exchange." All you English majors will know that "subvent" is a fancy way to say "subsidize." Kuhlman added, though, "We have yet to sell one battery as part of the program.""

     

    http://aol.it/WGCE5t
    24 Jul, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... No. The Goat was battery powered but carried its own on-board charger that could also provide a temporary boost. Nearly backwards from what ePower is attempting.
    24 Jul, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Ahh, OK, Thanks. Darn I wish RJ Corman/Railpower would have done a Green Goat retrofit w/ PbC. Or were there problems outside of the LABs being used for these units? I thought it was just the LABs due to heat dissipation.
    24 Jul, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1104) | Send Message
     
    Daimler would consider that BMW subvents nearly all their leases, but BMW still makes a profit.

     

    Rail companies consider that the government subvents the trucking industry by using passenger vehicle gasoline tax for road damage caused by trucks.

     

    Nissan may be coy about the cost of the battery pack (and for good reasons) and factory amortization is a major factor for non-Chinese li-ion battery.

     

    A manufacturer could subvent all steps of a sale yet still make a profit, Chinese do it all the time, they don't really sell glyphosate etc at a loss. If the incremental revenue of a sale is greater than the incremental cost of a sale, then it is profitable, even if it doesn't carry overheads, or amortization at any step along the way. Just as long as it doesn't jeopardise an existing sale.
    25 Jul, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I wish the Axion PbC had been given a try in the Goat configuration & it might have been back in 2010. There was one big problem with the Goat beyond the batteries and that problem was R.J. himself. Never was a fan and could care less to develop it. He bought RailPower for its facilities.
    25 Jul, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1041) | Send Message
     
    Exactly correct-

     

    I am working on a project with a customer whose bid came in 20% less than everyone else other than one guy where he was only 10% less. We thought he screwed up the bid so I called him yesterday about it.

     

    He was frank and told me that the size of our order while not huge would allow him to bump us a tier in his materials getting him a 1% increase in his rebate for all materials for the year. This increase will allow him to win new business from other customers, etc.

     

    He told me that he is selling this and making 1%. Its not worth his time but he's doing it cause it increases margins overall.
    25 Jul, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    The PbC is being given a "try" in an rail application that, no matter anyone's more expert opinion, will be a proof of principle for any of a large number of applications that the NSC patent envisions.

     

    It appears to me (admittedly a newbie only watching two-three years of NS publicity) that (1) slugs are the most likely app for the PbC and (2) slugs are an increasingly important app for NSC.

     

    Battery-locos have been fondled for years with no baby forthcoming or yet another baby that didn't survive. If the PbC "truck-batteries-on-a-... loco gets close, given all that's behind it, it's a done deal. It's free fuel. It's uncomplicated , a known chemistry, known risks, known economics, known costs. It 100% recyclable. It's been around longer than most locomotives. It's a perfect fit. And it's nice and heavy - way better than concrete.

     

    Slugs with benefits. That's what I see coming.
    25 Jul, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    You might think the economics of battery slugs are known, but based on the last sentence of the NS999 section of the NSC Sustainability Report, that remains to be seen in the corporate eyes of NSC. There is a lot more data to be gathered to prove out the economics. I don't envision any decision on whether to build additional units for at least another year.
    25 Jul, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... Norfolk's slug building project run to the end of 2017. No hurry.
    25 Jul, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Since a battery powered rebuild costs several million less than an EPA compliant diesel rebuild and will use 60,000 to 80,000 gallons less fuel per year, the economics aren't quite as iffy as one might surmise from the Sustainability Report. That being said NS' ROI on grants from uncle sugar is infinite and government guaranteed loans are a thing of beauty. You can't blame NS for setting the PR stage to maximize their chances for government support.
    25 Jul, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Right on concerning the wording in the NSC report about economics John. They would be foolish to jump up and down about great payback on the battery locos while the government wants it. Heck, even better economics just expands the market for a product NSC could be the only one servicing for a few or more years should the government start kicking in more money .

     

    That being said, timing is important as DRich has pointed out a few times. Nobody is buying equipment on a steady state manner as they have to meet certain government mandates. If the timing doesn't work it could slow down take-up. I think DRich has already eluded to the fact that some companies were watching and had to move because the program was late and they had to meet their commitments.
    25 Jul, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Quite so. My little local shortline needs 7 EPA compliant locos. These are contracted with Altoona and three gensets have already been delivered. They are pretty locos. The remainder are not required until 2016-17 and no build schedule I know of is on the books. They are holding out hoping something better comes along. Now whether this is the AMPS or BP4 is a crap shoot and could wind up being 4 more gensets.
    25 Jul, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich. Did you ever get close enough to them or someone else that is using multi-genset locos to understand if they share any of the same perspective as NSC concerning shortcomings as we saw in the NSC/US government presentation a short while ago? Of course you would know better than I the different types of rates and duty cycles these different operators might be putting these units under and this would make a difference I suppose.
    25 Jul, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Your considerable insight on these rail programs is much appreciated, DRich.
    25 Jul, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    i feel the need to allude to something, not sure what though.
    25 Jul, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    it's been 2 months since the last order. What can we expect in the coming months?

     

    - in august the roll out of NS999 to be tested
    - e-power test results
    - RS to take place

     

    more ideas?
    25 Jul, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I will be surprised if we see a reverse split as a stand alone event because it really needs to be tied to a financing to have the desired effect.

     

    The basic reason for the reverse split is to get a Nasdaq listing. While Axion's June 30th financial statements will almost certainly satisfy the Nasdaq's minimum listing standards, Nasdaq analysts know how to read financial statements and they tend to drag their feet on listing applications when a company doesn't have adequate liquidity. So from a practical standpoint a reverse split without new financing probably wouldn't be enough.

     

    A second consideration is the internal operating rules that govern most fund managers. They typically require a national market listing at a bare minimum but many have higher standards, like a $5 bid price. If management decided to do a 1 for 30 reverse, for example, it may find that the decision will take one or more desirable investors out of the pool.

     

    The only way to accomplish all of management's goals is to put together a list of buyers that will all be satisfied with a specific reverse split ratio, pre-clear the listing application with Nasdaq, and then implement all three pieces at the same time.

     

    I would never advise a client to take a piecemeal approach in a case like this, and I don't believe that I'm any smarter than Axion's legal counsel.
    25 Jul, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    so you expect Axion to find buyers who are willing to hold their stocks instead of flipping it?

     

    Thy have to come with substantial news flow and orders to lure new investors. True?
    25 Jul, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Axion-nl, I'm guessing a round of financing or a sale of the company are in the mix. If not something lower in probability but still not impossible yet, alas, far worse.

     

    Oh, and wouldn't a significant sale be nice. Contract delivered by snipe currier services limited.

     

    Hey, and what about a message from the new CEO. How appropriate might that be.
    25 Jul, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think management will try to find investors who will hold instead of flipping, but oftentimes that's easier said than done. The ugly reality is investors are happy to lie about their intentions if they think it will increase their odds of getting a piece of a good deal.

     

    While subsequent events threw a monkey wrench into the deal, Axion's 2009 financing was a well structured venture investment in public equity, or VIPE, with four core investors who bought with reasonable timelines and only gave up after one big holder died, another changed managers and a third was forced to sell in the aftermath of the 2008 crash.

     

    The 2012 and 2013 deals were pure financial market deals with investors who obviously had different goals.

     

    I would love to see another VIPE where the investors did a deep due diligence dive, negotiated a price that reflected the intrinsic value of the company and the PbC technology, and bought with a reasonable time horizon. The reverse split and market upgrade proposal tell me that management is serious about dealing with a better class of investor. There's simply no way to tell whether their efforts will be successful.

     

    As a general rule, VIPE investors are far more interested in long-term paths than short-term events. PIPE investors, in comparison, are far more concerned with short-term opportunities.
    25 Jul, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree, the lack of communication is bothering me for ages now. I just send an email to IR but the chances of getting an answer are small...
    25 Jul, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Ideally, there would be some significance sells and stock price increase before the RS and next round of financing, if not then the next financing would also be a risk of losing control of the company, given that the next round is supposed to be used for a build-out according to Tom.
    25 Jul, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    ARGE, IIRC the last round of financing was supposed to be for things other than day to day operations. This according to TG. I've heard of no commitment as of yet on what the next round of financing might be for but some level of general corporate purpose use seems inevitable.
    25 Jul, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2657) | Send Message
     
    You guys mean you want management to communicate with its shareholders after a major executive shake up and right before the biggest financial reorganization since the company had its reverse merger. You're all crazy!
    25 Jul, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, No, I'm perfectly fine sitting here in the dark digesting horse manure.

     

    http://bit.ly/WHdwM4
    25 Jul, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2657) | Send Message
     
    LOL.
    25 Jul, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Hoping you're correct, JP, about Axion attracting VIPE investors.

     

    But, how can perspective investors do any more due diligence than what is done on these concentrators?NDA's, in my opinion, really handcuff Axion, when it comes to obtaining new investors who are not flippers for quick profit.
    25 Jul, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    If for no other reason than to circumvent the NDAs, I would vote for increasing the number of programs that have been allowed to touch it. But given the patent position, even with the trade secrets, I cannot get behind wholesale tinkermanship enablement. There is $100,000,000 reasons why I like NDAs. It's a tough sell.
    25 Jul, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    07/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 850, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol: 357810, AvTrSz: 10223
    Min. Pr: 0.1270, Max Pr: 0.1349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1297
    # Buys, Shares: 8 175600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1301
    # Sells, Shares: 27 182210, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1294
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.04 (49.08% "buys"), DlyShts 174600 (48.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 95.82%

     

    We had two outliers today. One was a single buy of 2K shares at $0.1349. The next lower price seen was $0.1331 for 9K and it was close to similar trades with volume of $0.1330, $0.1320, ... The other was an outlier only because of it's size. It was a single buy of 60K at $0.13, a tenth below mid-range for the day.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -2.31%, 1.43%, -01.48%, 258.28% and 298.91% respectively. Price spread today was 6.22% vs. 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37% and 3.88% on prior days.

     

    In the traditional TA area, we made our first approach to the anticipated support at $0.125, getting down to $0.127. A short while back I thought this might be stronger support than the $0.135, which helped out for seven days before being broken, but then I began to have doubts about $0.125. I still have those doubts.

     

    Today's higher volume suggests that a bit more weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. But volume has been volatile and we could easily drop to very low volume again at any time. Anyway, all oscillators except Williams %R and full stochastic had very small moves down.

     

    The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, ... The upper limit continued lower today ...

     

    For the second consecutive day we traded mostly below the rising 200-day SMA, $0.1321 today, but didn't manage to close above it like we did yesterday. We closed at $0.13, which was the last and largest trade of the day, a buy of 60K at 13:46.

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 35 trades, 11.43%. These 170,000 shares were 47.51% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1297. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00% ...

     

    The other 31 trades, 88.57% of the day's trades, traded 187,810 shares, 52.49% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1298. 5 trades, 16.13%, ...

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://bit.ly/1mKKjJL

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    About right HTL. 0.125 USD offered about as much support as a toilet paper dam.
    25 Jul, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18062) | Send Message
     
    Well, just saw 250K go in a single trade at $0.115. And a ton more not all that much better - $0.12 and worse.

     

    I had no idea there was that much pessimism.

     

    Lot's of healing needed for this vehicle.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Noahfreak
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I just picked some of those up at that price, so there's not pessimism everywhere. I take it as a great buy opportunity. I will buy more if the selloff continues.
    25 Jul, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9576) | Send Message
     
    That's about $33k/full time resident. Primarily tourism with a maximum visitor count of 400 restriction.

     

    Lord Howe Island's Clean, Renewable Energy Future

     

    http://bit.ly/WH4pLe

     

    http://bit.ly/WH4oHb
    25 Jul, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Get Ion-Board
    24 Jul 2014

     

    http://bit.ly/WH5mDb

     

    "SAFT: The Ion-Board Regen lithium-ion traction battery system designed to capture, store and reuse regenerated braking energy will be launched by Saft at InnoTrans 2014.

     

    Saft says this is a significant step in the industrialisation of a modular lithium-ion onboard energy storage concept first shown at InnoTrans 2012. It is intended for diesel locomotives as well as electric multiple-units and light rail vehicles.

     

    ...

     

    Saft will also be showing its Power Box real-time battery management unit which monitors the state of charge and condition in real time. This can be fitted with an optional Battery Thermal Management System to ensure that the cells operate at the optimum temperature."
    25 Jul, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Isn't this the unit that is designed to go short distances across gaps in electrified systems? Is it a starting thrust provider? The blurb doesn't mention the purpose or use of the unit within the locomotive.
    25 Jul, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Related: (Google Translate, reached through looking at the Innotrans web site ... road trip to Berlin anyone?)

     

    http://bit.ly/WH6lmW

     

    "The onboard Li-ion battery energy storage system of juice is designed for the recording, storage and reuse of braking energy. It is suitable for mass transit systems such as trams and dual-voltage light rail and electric multiple units (EMUs), diesel locomotives and automatic people mover (APM). Li-ion battery technology provides both high power and high energy density in combination with a high Lade-/Entladerate and the fundamentally important reliability rating, reducing the maximum system availability is guaranteed. Juice provides the lightweight and modular Li-ion battery systems for direct onboard installation in a standard-compliant housing. The mechanical assembly is simple and thanks to the configuration of up to 750 V required for every conceivable energy demand scalability and flexibility is assured. because the Li-ion energy storage system based on the regeneration and reuse of braking energy, railway operators, up to 30% of their energy costs savings and also minimize the environmental impact. The typical Li-ion battery technology reliability, it is thanks to them that rail vehicles are also used in sections where overhead lines for safety or aesthetic reasons, can not be installed, such as in historic city centers."
    25 Jul, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Cute, catchy headline:

     

    InnoTrans 2014: Worth time travelling for.

     

    http://bit.ly/WH6B5j

     

    "Looking back to the future: For 75 years FLACHGLAS Wernberg has been an innovation leader in the field of automotive glazing. At this year’s InnoTrans in Berlin we will present our highlights of the past – and offer prospects on perspectives for tomorrow. "
    25 Jul, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    It all sounds good until one of the Li-ion goes all Tesla* in a tunnel or other enclosed space.

     

    *Yea it is unfair but if you got the meaning, well then, not so much.
    25 Jul, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Norfolk Southern combating slow train speeds with hiring, investment

     

    Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Jul 24, 2014 4:21PM EDT

     

    http://bit.ly/WH60AP

     

    "Larry Gross, president of Gross Transportation Consulting, said that the four-week average speeds for intermodal trains topped 33.4 mph in 2013. Since then, velocities have been trending downward.

     

    “With the exception of one week in 2008, you have to go back to 2006 to find speeds as low as they were in early July,” Gross noted.

     

    Norfolk Southern believes its velocity problem will be solved in the second half of the year, as the company plans to hire for about 900 new operating jobs. NS also upped its capital budget by $40 million to add additional used locomotives and add capacity in areas suffering from chronic congestion.

     

    ...

     

    Intermodal growth was impacted by the tightening trucking market capacity, Chief Marketing Officer Don Seale said. The capacity trend has impacted railroads positively for the past 15 to 18 months, Seale said, and NS still has a 12 to 15 percent differential on truckload prices. Also, NS has room to grow, Manion noted.

     

    “Our intermodal train lengt