Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (323)
Track new comments
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Primero!!!???????
    27 Jul 2014, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    Segundo - for the second time :)
    27 Jul 2014, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Rick:

     

    Is correct: Segundo no dos.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    27 Jul 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    This truck, from Cummins, incorporates s/s.

     

    "Cummins ETHOS 2.8L Engine Demonstrates 50 to 80 Percent Reduction in Carbon Dioxide Emissions"

     

    Impressive, to me, is the output from a 2.8L (~161 c.i.) engine: up to 250 hp and peak torque up to 450 lb-ft.

     

    I also wonder if it's "Axion Inside".

     

    At first I was put off by the corn->ethanol aspect, but later on they talk about "second-generation lignocellulosic-derived E-85", which I find more acceptable.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1nv7gRi

     

    Thanks to Chachaching at Investorvillage for the link.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2014, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    The start-stop was designed by Allison.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1nv...

     

    85% ethanol fuel.

     

    Friday aside: closed BYD, opened REGI.
    27 Jul 2014, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Specifically:

     

    "though not in high-volume production today, cellulosic ethanol represents a promising production pathway for future fuels. This demonstrates that significant reductions in GHG emissions can be achieved with current commercially available E-85 fuels, with even greater potential in the future when cellulosic ethanol technology matures and becomes mainstream."

     

    Been hearing about cellulosic for quite a while now (maybe approaching the 10 year AXPW odyssey)

     

    deja vu ... sounds great on paper, but will overcome all the obstacles, become mainstream, and ever become a real long term investment???

     

    deja vu too??? NS-999 v. CMI-Ethos .... will EITHER become more than neat research projects that make for nice publicity?
    27 Jul 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Cellulosic ethanol will probably NOT be led by American research, primarily due to the potent political might of the corn lobby.

     

    However, the Swedes are in the hunt, and unlike the US, are far more interested in the idea and without the political anchors.

     

    We should not be surprised if one day we see a Swedish design capture the market. I think they are about a year or maybe two from a workable commercial design.

     

    WITHOUT the corn lobby, this tech would probably have been in place a decade ago.
    27 Jul 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    Hi HTL,
    Thanks for the link.
    While the numbers of CO2 production, hp and torque look good this smells like a PR campaign. !,000 miles and 1,500 hours in a month, doesn't prove anything except proof of concept, no mileage improvement figures or even an example of reliability.
    27 Jul 2014, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    S.D. I agree - I had taken a second look before posting, hoping to find some mpg figures. However, even if I found them I wouldn't be sure what to do with them because I have no idea what the price/gal would be on a scaled-up basis to fleets and/or when sufficient re-fueling infrastructure existed.

     

    On top of that, I can see the "spin cycles" starting to work as they take the 15% gasoline and use that as a big savings figure. E.g. if 100% gasoline yielded 10 mpg, now we get about 7 times that, based on gasoline/mile.

     

    Good for proclaiming "reducing imported oil dependency", but owners and operators will want to see the bottom-line effect regardless of that.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2014, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    From what I've seen in previous mileage statements using E85, there is a significant drop in fuel mileage b/c alcohol doesn't have as much power when burned.
    I am open to being pleasantly surprised, however. Out here in Ca where this was tested, we have a large increase in gas taxes coming in 2015 and the cap in trade (fraudulent carbon tax) to be applied in 2016. Some estimates have gas (at it's current cost) going up $1.35 a gallon in taxes alone. 8-0
    27 Jul 2014, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Indeed, it takes 1.4 gallons of ethanol to produce the same energy as gasoline. It's hard to beat fossil fuel at energy density.
    28 Jul 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    >triplback: The "corn lobby" represents corn growers and corn-based industry groups, etc. Together, these industries pay an [obscene] amount of taxes and in turn they deserve the right to representation, as do all taxpayers

     

    Unfortunately, there is no better way to do this than through lobbying efforts. Better We should just do away with all business taxes and thus all tax breaks and subsidies, rather than incur the inevitable actual corruption of Our government which those subsidies and similar pick-a-winner-in-every... programs encourage.

     

    Despite the corn lobby, the efforts of cellulosic ethanol continue apace, essentially oblivious to corn's current dominance in America. In fact, farmer's growing corn for the ethanol market would probably rather grow switchgrass, far cheaper and less demanding a crop.

     

    There's a plethora of challenges still facing cellulosic ethanol. It is great science, there is no doubt it will get done, there are some large companies working on it and it promises a HUGE PAYOFF. Gargantuan. A very large amount of land that cannot currently be considered arable for purposes of corn could be used for growing switchgrass (or some similar crop).

     

    If the corn lobby could manage to do anything against the cellulosic industry, the only means by which it might exert some puny control would be to curtail government spending on cellulosic research. But that's drop in the overall bucket and our taxes are already too often wasted on perks and silliness.

     

    OTOH, the government benefits by suppressing cellulosic research in at least two obvious ways. First, the price of corn rises - meaning more sales taxes on everything corn is used for, ethanol, corn oil, corn-based feeds, higher meat prices, you name it, tens of thousands of products good ol' Uncle Sam gets to nickel and dime tens of millions of us on.

     

    Second, the higher the price of food - and this is the Number One Result of subsidizing corn to make ethanol - the more dependent the populace, meaning there are now going to be more people on the dole, all of whom quickly begin voting in very predictable ways. This is the key policy of the last few decades and has led to a massive increase in State power, which is inevitably used to force higher income tax rates and to fund the search for evermore revenue streams.
    28 Jul 2014, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Actually, Deamiter, you can improve the energy density over plain fossil fuels by adding some nitro groups to the hydrocarbons.

     

    But wisdom might preclude riding around in a vehicle full of them anywhere but in the Middle East. And even then, only for a chosen few.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oDkThJ
    28 Jul 2014, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: Um... good point? :-p
    29 Jul 2014, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Suck,squeeze,BANG...oh?
    29 Jul 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Yup, D, it's hard to improve on the energy density, abundance, and convenience of hydrocarbons.

     

    While the Solar System is riddled with them in various forms, if you want more bang fer the buck ya just got to go Nukular.

     

    After all, that is how our ultimate Energy Goddess, Old Sol, has solved the thermodynamics dilemma.
    29 Jul 2014, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... That's funny, "I also wonder if it's "Axion Inside"." Maybe GM is also putting the Axion dual battery system in the Malibu. Maybe Cummins & the California Energy Commission [CEC] used Axion capacitors in their start/stop. More likely Tesla battery packs than Axion but just look at the rigor they did going from concept to product in just 2 1/2 years.

     

    Makes me wonder, then laugh myself into hysterical tears of despondency.

     

    27 Jul 2014, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    And they have "over 1000 miles" of testing completed!
    27 Jul 2014, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, just means the engineers are still all over the prototype. Don't need to do many miles until they want to start trying things out. Just like ePower doesn't have huge run time yet. But yes, to have the marketing folks emphasize the mileage is odd.
    29 Jul 2014, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Bang

     

    “How anyone can have an enthusiasm for Axion is beyond me. It is a complete black hole of information, and a new CEO who is probably wondering how he got into this mess, and a highly uncertain future”

     

    If you knew nothing of a company. The owner came to you and said I have spent roughly $100 million invested in:

     

    Finding and taking the legal rights to a technology

     

    Proving that technology works on a commercial scale

     

    The tech improves a product that we all use every day

     

    There have been few improvements to the product over the last 100 years

     

    There are significant barriers to entering the marketplace

     

    However once you qualify your product those same barriers can protect our markets for many years

     

    Successfully demonstrating the tech applies in several fields of commercial significance

     

    Have developed business relations with a World Class Company ("WCC")

     

    That potential customer has tested our technology

     

    They have confirmed the potential value

     

    They see important uses for the technology

     

    I can produce the essence of the technology for licensing efficiently

     

    I have relationships with WC suppliers to the WCC

     

    Mistakes have been made but we have learned from them

     

    There are other big opportunities that are also ripening - but let's forget about them

     

    I need a partner to see developments to cash flow because I am almost out of money

     

    I have a sound plan that takes us to annual net incomes which justify multiples of the $100 million invested

     

    The plan makes sense

     

    The infrastructure is in place

     

    There are a number of catalysts that can allow things to happen sooner rather than later

     

    Would you not give the investment some serious thought?

     

    As I see it – the only thing that can go wrong is running out of cash. It is a big one. But surely to goodness some plan will form, or alternative be found, that gets the opportunity to market and cash flow

     

    There really is just one negative – and understandably we are all shell shocked and over reacting to it because of the PIPE disaster.

     

    I am convinced from my own experiences that there is more than one way to solve the problem and that the problem will be solved. That is what Senior Management is in place to do

     

    Agree if you do not believe that DDG and team can solve the finance problem with the assets they have to work with – one should have been out at $0.15
    27 Jul 2014, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    Say that the decision is made to sell Axion. Who would buy it and what would they do with the technology?

     

    * Much better discussion than the usual "Negative Nancy" wev'r been getting here. (in my opinion)
    27 Jul 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Buyers???

     

    Someone who wants to shut down the tech?

     

    Someone who wants to use the tech

     

    More likely big battery manufacturer who sees the tech and assets as a compliment to what they are doing and where they want to go

     

    Cummins?

     

    Someone who wants an exclusive (auto, train, Powercube?)

     

    Some combination of the foregoing

     

    One of the concerns I have had with TG is I have felt (perhaps incorrectly) that he had a plan and be damned he was going to stick with it. This kind of thinking can stop discussions of partnerships and takeovers from even getting started

     

    One of the potenial benefits to new head is they are not rooted in the past and may take a more open look at all possibilities

     

    I may be wrong
    27 Jul 2014, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    agree with you dlmca. The main problem I had with TG was that he struck me as very very very "inflexible", but again that's what one would expect from a union contract negotiator. Some skills just don't translate very well from the union world to Corporate Management.

     

    As for options for selling Axion? So many companies would be willing to buy it out - for the PbC or to shut down the tech- the important question to ask is: How much would they be willing to pay? Certainly not much more than current market cap. IMO.
    27 Jul 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    Supercapacitors find their place in energy storage applications
    http://bit.ly/1rV5xW2
    27 Jul 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    The pps correlation for Maxwell and Axion is getting stronger as the months go by. Both dipping late week.
    27 Jul 2014, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    dimca - I doubt a buyer would buy it to shut it down; I don't think anyone feels threatened.

     

    An exclusive, more likely. I think the most likely exclusive candidates would be the big utility and engineering providers, such as GE, ABB, or Siemens. Highest price, not high price.

     

    Second most likely exclusive, a big battery company. I don't know much about them. Low price.

     

    A private equity company, like Rockport Capital that bought up Beacon for almost nothing out of bankruptcy. Not "exclusive", but would try to utilize the product in various applications. Very low price.

     

    Wildcard: Somebody from China. Low price.

     

    I doubt railroads or autos are likely. Not their style. Perhaps GE, as a provider of locomotives.

     

    While I do not think anyone will buy it to shut it, I think it is likely if GE buys it and gets bored, it may wither away. The purchase price is so small (relative to GE) they would hardly notice the write off.
    27 Jul 2014, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    iindelco offered an article in last APC that contained a link to this:

     

    POLICY:
    Smart grid device makers pitch platform for a national energy plan
    Peter Behr, E&E reporter
    EnergyWire: Friday, July 11, 2014

     

    http://bit.ly/1Amnwtg

     

    "Manufacturers of smart grid devices and other electrical equipment have drafted a broad policy wish list, hoping to influence creation of a new national energy strategy in a time of profound change and governmental deadlock.

     

    The industry's prescription, "Modernizing America's Electric Grid," was released yesterday, prior to its submission to the Obama administration, which has begun development of a Quadrennial Energy Review (QER) that aims for consensus among governments and industry about the energy future.

     

    ...

     

    Members of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) outlined their proposals to the QER yesterday"

     

    "Storage is actually close to economically sound today if you add up all the various benefit streams that can flow from it," Estey added. "The pesky part of it is that those benefit streams flow to different people. ... So regulation needs to deal with the fact that if society wants these things, we have to find another way to pay for it than exists today. We have a regulatory scheme that has not caught up with the technology."

     

    "Who should own the storage?" Dulaney continued. "And how should we pay for it? No regulatory body in this country can answer that question today. They're worried about it. But nobody can answer that question."
    27 Jul 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    Capacitors in general and lead-acid batteries in particular are widely used and I daresay wildly successful. There is a gaping power-energy void betwixt them.
    The supercapacitor and supercabattery address that void.
    Axion is early to market here; Maxwell and Elton/Saft-Kold Ban would be amongst the closer competitors in the space. Lots of companies interested in the space.
    I don't know who would feel threatened by what, but I think anyone in the market knows Axion has NS's attention and a prototype, as well as a PowerCube sold for real money into FR. That makes them interesting and attractive if not threatening. There are good reasons to like the future of the tech in general and of Axion in particular.
    27 Jul 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    If NS likes the technology, they might take it forward by taking on Axion. It's not a bad fit for a company that wants the time-proven stability and standardization of lead-acid electrochemistry and the economics of a 99% recycled highly-available commodity. In fact, everything about it could have NS screaming: "That's our style!"

     

    By analogy, didn't someone just suggest that they had a biodiesel plant in Louisiana? I don't know anything about it, just saying.
    27 Jul 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... That might be a tough sell.

     

    It took nearly 2 years in the field before the Goat started showing its weakness. After making loans to Railpower for development of the Goat, Norfolk Southern wound up with a loss & 4 locomotive with a pile of batteries they couldn't use. Always wondered if the Goat would have worked with Axion capacitors on-board but I'll never know.

     

    The mistake that NSC made beyond that was thinking that they failed for want of a better battery. I don't they thought through the problem of DCA & capacitance and why would they because electrical engineers are not used to thinking about batteries as primary power sources. Enersys apparently wasn't aware of the depth of the problem because I'd bet they assured Norfolk that their Odessy batteries would work just fine.

     

    Anyway, I'll go further and bet that Norfolk management hasn't forgotten any of this. Makes thinking they would back another vendor a real stretch in my way of thinking how corporations act.
    27 Jul 2014, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    DRich, re': "Makes thinking they would back another vendor a real stretch in my way of thinking how corporations act."

     

    Makes me think the opposite. That's their style, i.e., go with what works, stick with it, standardize it, maximize it.

     

    If the vendor has what they want, for example, reliable DC traction locos, e.g., EMD SD-40s, they will buy them and maintain them and keep buying them used as others buy new; the other's rail's trash becomes their treasure and Juniata's bread-and-butter.

     

    It remains to be seen if PbC SuperCabatteries with CDI StrongString technology (tm) are a good fit for the energy-power requirements of switcher, local (helper) or long-haul locos.

     

    Side bar question: Can a loco pull up behind a moving train and start pushing without the train stopping? Then disengage and roll back down the hill without the train stopping?
    27 Jul 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... You're free to believe in whatever you want. We all have daydreams we believe in & fantasy we wish were real.

     

    The answer to your question is a BIG "NO". There is not only a safety issue but a lot of avoidance of unnecessary capital expenses & basic physics that would explain it. Locomotives have a lot of accident per year already.
    27 Jul 2014, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    >DRich, Nothing I suggested rises to the level of daydreams or fantasy. Please get a grip on whatever gripe you've got with me.
    27 Jul 2014, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> DRich

     

    From what I remember on the issue of using the Enersys Odyssey PC2150 Group 31 VRLA batteries in the GG, those failed in less than a month, perhaps within only a few weeks. So, it may have taken two years build the GG 999, but its field trial lifespan was very short, and measured in weeks.

     

    Plus, the blame for the failure of that GG program cannot be entirely placed on the Enersys batteries that they were using. The Battery Management System that was being used has to share in some of that blame. The BMS at the time was the Gen I BMS for the 999, and it was a contributing factor in the unduly short lifespan of that NSC999 VRLA battery program.

     

    The NSC999 in its present form, has, as its foundation, the lessons learned from the failed GG program. In the NSC/FRA progress and final report documentation from circa 2012, NSC stated that the Gen II BMS and the Axion PbC resulted in much improved results and NSC attributed the noted improvements to "the combination of the new BMS and the unique PbC chemistry." The words in quotes are NSC's own words.
    27 Jul 2014, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >User 393748 ... I think you are intermixing and/or confusing the Railpower Green Goat & Green Kid with NS999 v1.0. Railpower built, I believe I remember correctly, 65 of these battery powered hybrids and had a backlog of 175 (mixed no. of genset & hybrid) in 2005. These were in service until 2007 when fire burned in 2 of them forcing a recall.

     

    Norfolk Southern has built & now rebuilt one NS999 prototype.
    27 Jul 2014, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> DRich

     

    That could be. The one that I had in mind was the NSC 999 that NSC announced in 2009.

     

    Does anyone know what lead acid batteries are
    being used in the Green Goat and Green kid?
    27 Jul 2014, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/uYBkC8
    27 Jul 2014, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> iindelco

     

    Thanks for the link.

     

    I am surprised that they lasted as long as they did.

     

    The info from Rail Power's own press release is that they estimated a cost of $13 million to upgrade all of the existing GG and GK units. They felt that that was the only way to avoid further problems with the remaining units that were still in service.
    27 Jul 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    User39, not just that. The execution was horrific. They placed the AGM batteries in tubs for structure in the NS 999 Gen 1 loco. No air flow. They must have had terrible hot spots in the battery chains. Even worse with AGM batteries that are not balanced. The weak cells in the chain lived a short horrible life. All they had to look forward to was the fact they would be recycled and resurrected. Hopefully into a better application design.

     

    http://bit.ly/INYJCX

     

    Sorry, I once had a better picture that actually was of only one tub full of batteries, top view. Anyway, you get the point I'm sure.
    27 Jul 2014, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> iindelco

     

    The issue of heat certainly does require handling with respect.

     

    For batteries and heat, it is helpful for engineers to recall three items of info, 1) IIRC, a 10 degree celsius rise in temperature in a battery over one minute can easily start thermal runaway, 2) Arrhenius' law states that for many reactions, for each 10 degree celsius rise in temperature, the chemical reaction rate can double, and 3) thermal runaway is an exothermic reaction (more energy is put out than is put in.)

     

    "The weak cells in the chain lived a short horrible life." Or as Hobbs (no relation to the internationally famous Calvin and Hobbs) would have said, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.
    27 Jul 2014, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1nQpmNe

     

    The article above (out of Ft. Lewis) indicates the Green Goat used 310 200-lb lead acid batteries.

     

    "It's still a technology in progress for them," Merdian said of RailPower, the remanufacturer. "At a low speed, you can operate all day long."

     

    And what about battery life?

     

    "With the way we operate, the company expects to see about 10 years of life," Merdian said. "I think it's about $100,000 at this time to change out the batteries."

     

    And the Green Goat can be fast, if necessary.

     

    "They say it will do 60 miles an hour," said McMullin, who will never find out for himself. "We haven't got a long enough stretch of track."
    28 Jul 2014, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks User39. Like this board!
    28 Jul 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    Generally now vehicle manufacturers (including locomotives) do not want to be vertically integrated. Car companies do not own steel mills. GM spun off Delco. GE does not own steel mils for its locos. No vehicle manufacturer makes tires, radios, batteries, windshields, lights, locks and security systems, etc., anymore.

     

    Most manufacturing / supply chain philosophies for the last few decades has been for multi-source, competitive suppliers, not vertically integrated sole-source.

     

    Note NS' extremely slow introduction of the 999 - 17 months of hibernation, then months of "watching the paint dry". No way they are going to buy a battery company. They are not a conglomerate or entrepreneurs - they are a rail road. Period.
    27 Jul 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday I promised an Instablog that did a deeper dive into the FINRA short sale data and explains why I think the PIPErs still have some shares in inventory. Here it is.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Jul 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    In 2010 NS and EMD partnered to study impact of using biodiesel using a SD70 OTR loco and a couple of switchers as test platforms.

     

    Exactly 2 years later (Apr 2012), NS inked a deal with Dynamic Fuels' (Tyson/Syntroleum's) Louisiana-based biodiesel plant* for supply, which is now being used (I think I read at 100%) in one of their supply stations in Mississippi.

     

    *This is the biodiesel plant I just invested in through REGI, btw, who now owns 100% of it.

     

    NS does not own a biodiesel plant, AFAICT.

     

    I agree it is unlikely that NSC would want to buy a battery company. But neither unreasonable nor unthinkable that they might be involved in a hard cash infusion or offtake agreement to sustain one they thought would or did prove itself useful. They have put a lot of money into the overall effort and have touted Axion as an industry partner.
    27 Jul 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    “Hidden Cost” Of Wind Power vs. Conventional Power Plants

     

    http://bit.ly/1oxabcA
    27 Jul 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Green T has initiated an excellent debate

     

    Look forward to the input of others
    27 Jul 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    GE gets patent to better assess SOC of a electrochemical cell. Talks about why battery management systems that take external measurements and integrate these over a period of time based on certain known factors of the battery chemistry don't work very well. Err, what the autos are doing today for SS systems using enhanced flooded and AGM batteries.

     

    http://bit.ly/1k2zrqX
    27 Jul 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As you dig down into the patent you learn they've had a hard time monitoring the SOC of their Durathon (NaNiCl) battery in high rate partial state of charge applications like locomotives. It goes a long way toward explaining why their widely hyped hybrid locomotive has gone dark over the last couple years.

     

    One of the coolest features of the PbC is that the linear voltage decline doesn't change as the battery ages which means you can accurately assess SOC at any point in time with a volt-meter.

     

    Dirt simple SOC assessment is a very good thing when it comes to monitoring a large to massive battery.
    27 Jul 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, Some verification of what we've all been discussing for some time.

     

    Companies most often invent in certain areas for a reason.
    27 Jul 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP & iindelco ... Also explains what Norfolk was most likely tasked with when they received the grant to test the Corvus battery used in the AMPS locomotive.
    27 Jul 2014, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    I am partial to GE as my father had a long, rewarding, and fulfilling career as a regional sales manager for the long ago sold portable appliances division.

     

    My understanding of the current corporate culture, begun under Jack Welch and continuing under Jeffrey Immelt is that they are only interested in staying in industry segments where they can be the leader. For this reason they are again attempting a sale of their last consumer division, major appliances, since they are number three in that segment.

     

    My conclusion then, as to a possible Axion purchase would be that they would only be interested if they thought they could become number one in Battery Locomotives.

     

    It also seems more likely they would not want to own the Axion technology but use it as per ePower. And as Rick suggested above, I agree that 'vertical integration' is mostly passé for large corporations.
    27 Jul 2014, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "And as Rick suggested above, I agree that 'vertical integration' is mostly passé for large corporations."

     

    Since I spent a long time helping some companies unwind their legacy vertical integration I can also attest to the many reasons why it doesn't make sense any more. One of the big reasons not mentioned recently, so I'll mention it again, is that with multiple suppliers able to supply items to another company they will be very competitive in both pricing and their willingness to innovate to stay in the game. It's a self improving/correcting system that also offers assurance of supply. This does not happen as readily in companies that have committed their own capital to support their own needs. No reason to destroy what already works.
    27 Jul 2014, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Elon Musk understands the unintended consequences of large scale vertical integration?
    27 Jul 2014, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Also gives you most likely smaller supplier who won't have as big or good a set of lawyers as you do when the stuff hits the fan.

     

    Think about Horizon Gulf Well disaster and what a mess it was (and maybe still is) when it comes to just compensation for negligence. At the very least, it delays the time you actually have to pay off :-(
    27 Jul 2014, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    ii - when an entity can fire poor performing employees as readily as they can fire poor performing suppliers, vertical integration indeed works, especially for those striving for lowest cost product.

     

    When regulations yield or cause unwarranted entitlements, via intention or unintended, the edge is lost, woefully.

     

    Additionally, if obsolesence is on the horizon, let someone else pay the price for capital equipment.
    27 Jul 2014, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    One little considered downside of the trend from a must-read site if you care about cyber security:

     

    Hackers Plundered Israeli Defense Firms that Built ‘Iron Dome’ Missile Defense System

     

    http://bit.ly/1o6nY51

     

    "While some of the world’s largest defense contractors have spent hundreds of millions of dollars and several years learning how to quickly detect and respond to such sophisticated cyber attacks, it’s debatable whether this approach can or should scale for smaller firms."
    28 Jul 2014, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    NJB, I agree with your points. It is a hard balancing act though to maintain all the advantages that can come from vertical integration. Many industries have chosen just to maintain some core competencies and buy the rest.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    ii - knowing what "business" one is in is key. Keep the main thing the main thing.

     

    Way back, when Kaiser (an aluminum/metals company) branched into shipbuilding (a transportation company), it eventually became painful.

     

    On the other hand, conglomerates worked for decades. Successful, until their advantages dwindled due to sharper competition, better products (?), lower-cost products, better retail distribution, etc.; and we now have GE finally getting out of the household appliance business. What's next?
    28 Jul 2014, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • blauschuh
    , contributor
    Comments (420) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure why GE wouldn't take a chance on lil' Axion. Is GE even aware that Axion exists??

     

    Just to put things into persective... GE has 307,000 employees (per yahoo finance). I'd bet that the cost per employee for coffee + toilet paper per year is greater than the unfortunately declining market cap of Axion.

     

    This isn't a billion dollar choice... eg. Zillow buys Trulia for 3.5 Billion. This is basically chump change for a unique tech that has several niche applications.

     

    Sigh... we're on the verge of the .10xxx's
    28 Jul 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    We know there was a potential strategic investor before that wanted 60% of the company, IIRC.
    28 Jul 2014, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, As has been discussed many times before here. That was then. Most times when you decline you don't get a second chance and the terms will be different if you do.
    28 Jul 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    I was simply providing an example of a company interested in buying a controlling interesting in Axion. Though I don't see why declining precludes second chances.
    28 Jul 2014, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    Ranma - If the girl refuses your marriage proposal, usually she can't come back a year later and say "I am interested now, nobody else would take me."
    28 Jul 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    I'm not arguing that investor is back, but it's still nonsense. It's just business, not something with hurt feelings involved. There are many instances where companies declined the first offer and still received a second.
    28 Jul 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    Also, I am a 'believer' that the Axion PbC could well be the winning technology in the battery locomotive space but I am less sure that battery locomotives will be the emergent winner in the 'green' loco power space, both questions which GE and other potential buyers are surely batting around in their respective labs and boardrooms.
    27 Jul 2014, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >geopark ... It will probably never happen that mainline USA freight locomotives will not have some sort of liquid fuel motor on-board. Electrification suchas a battery or cantenary wire will gain over time.
    27 Jul 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    What about someone like Alstom Grid wanting to lock up the PbC PowerCubes?
    If a company could be the sole source of a product that generates the ROI that has been claimed ...
    27 Jul 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    GT - Do we any actual (from Axiom) ROI numbers? I don't remember ever seeing any, except for back of envelope guesstimate from Axionistas.
    27 Jul 2014, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    http://bit.ly/X1kGKM

     

    This is about the best that Axion has done in this regard.
    27 Jul 2014, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    What kinds of similar (or superior) data are available for any other such application from any other source?

     

    There is the Ecoult Lyon Station Uber-project reports which might allow a comparison, albeit fraught with caveats.

     

    Any others?
    28 Jul 2014, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    From the link Believer posted,
    "The revenue rates paid to us, and confirmed in the log of daily price participation rates published by PJM for all of 2013, firmly validate the high IRR and ROI our stand alone PowerCube model provides."

     

    Sure looks tempting.
    28 Jul 2014, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    PBCB - Thanks.
    28 Jul 2014, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    The available info from Argonne on their lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese cathode contains some interesting details.

     

    They describe voltage fade as being "the most pressing problem" with the lithium - manganese chemistry, and that additives to the electrolyte and coatings on the cathode are of no help to the voltage fade problem. Such additives and coatings will reduce impedance rise and capacity fade, but that only makes the voltage fade even more of a contributing detrimental factor. As a result, Argonne has stopped all further work on such additives or surface coating treatments for this chemistry.

     

    Continued research on voltage fade is important to the future of Li-Ion batteries, as it can occur in many of these currently used lithium based chemistries.

     

    Argonne pulled people and resources from other ongoing projects and put them to work helping the existing voltage fade team on trying to solve this problem.

     

    During their research, they have encountered a new problem, and that is that the neutrons in these compounds are influenced in a detrimental way by the lithium ions and other metals in the battery during the battery's operation, and such can lower the performance of the battery. This, alone, could be an interesting puzzle to solve, as the nuetrons appear to be affected by the present structural stability of the particles, and the long term structural stability, as well.

     

    As a result of Argonne et al's unsuccessful efforts to solve the voltage fade problem at the higher voltages that are attainable with lithium manganese batteries, Argonne has decided that further work on solving this problem will have to be done at the micro or nanoscale level. This means that further research will have to be done working with single particles, and in some cases, a single grain from a particle. Since a coin cell will contain multi-billions of particles, using coin cells for further research on this problem will not allow research teams to solve this issue.

     

    As another able poster has correctly noted, the manganese does have a much higher capacity, but until someone discovers a way to utilize it without undue fading and makes it suitable for a rating of PHEV - 40 at a viable price, then the present common Li-Ion chemistries for auto will have to suffice. As for a suitable cycle life, the present rough maximum of 1,000 cycles is well below the 2,500 to 3,000 cycles that some in the battery research field say is what is required for gaining public acceptance of PHEVs and full battery electric vehicles.

     

    Since the chemistry that Elon Musk is using in the Model S suffers very little from voltage fade, so long as it is kept at a maximum cut-off voltage of 4.25 volts, it can be expected for him to stick with the lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide that he is currently using, but to be keeping up to date on the research efforts with manganese at Argonne.
    28 Jul 2014, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    While it's a decidedly unpopular view in fanboy circles, I see Tesla's gigafactory plans as a tacit admission that lithium-ion chemistry isn't likely to change or improve much going forward. After all, nobody spends billions building a factory that scientific advances will render obsolete within a couple years.

     

    I also see better than even odds that the plan will be abandoned or scaled back due to recalcitrant partners, but that comes from 30 years of experience that taught me aspiration is easier than accomplishment.
    28 Jul 2014, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    User 393,

     

    re': "neutrons"

     

    Sounds interesting, though I can't imagine any role for neutrons. Can you provide a link?
    28 Jul 2014, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    My all too many years in engineering have taught me that every product can be significantly improved upon and that when the right economic incentives are present the probability of that happening is very nearly 100%. My bet is that Li batteries will be improved in time just as EM's supercabatteries will also be improved.

     

    The only question is "Who will be making and cashing in on those improvements?".
    28 Jul 2014, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The Boston Consulting Group has spent a lot of time analyzing learning curve efficiencies as technologies mature and their rule of thumb is that learning curve efficiencies reduce the variable costs of production by an average of 20% per year for the first 15 years of a product's lifecycle and there the curve flattens. Most lithium-ion chemistries have been in production for well over a decade and unless you want to assume the Japanese were sloppy the odds are pretty good that future improvements will be slower and more costly than past improvements.

     

    If somebody is able to bring a new architecture or chemistry to market – things like silicon anodes, lithium-sulfur or lithium-air, the process will start all over again for the latest and greatest.

     

    Since our favorite supercabattery is very different from its predecessors, at least at the carbon electrode assembly level, I have a very high degree of confidence that the PbC's performance and cost metrics will improve far more rapidly than lithium's.
    28 Jul 2014, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    The early patents on the PbC technology date back 15 years which creates something of a contradiction in what you say. But that said, I have never been much of a Boston fan. :-)
    28 Jul 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> JP

     

    I agree that his bet is that li-ion battery tech is at a plateau for the foreseeable future. Plus, he is already on record as saying that capacitors will be the future, and not so much so for batteries.

     

    I just read another Argonne publication on the making of li-ion batteries and they mention that the use of nickel, cobalt, and manganese sulfates produces sulfuric acid, and this will require alot of water for treating this waste product. Hence, they recommend that any such factories be located very near water, such as a river or by the sea. When he first talked of building these factories, I was thinking that he might be better off building them near a waterway, as it might be cheaper to bring in the raw materials by barge.

     

    The lack of immediate players lining up to be a partner or a joint venture participant meght be because his current and potential li-ion battery suppliers are not convinced that his sizable projected future sales figures for his cars are realistic. It would seem that if Panasonic and Samsung were convinced that Model S cars were soon to be flying off the shelves, they would have already offered to increase their supply of batteries so that they could profit, as well.
    28 Jul 2014, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> Edmund

     

    I found this neutron reference in an Argonne pdf file entitled "Addressing the Voltage Fade Issue with Li-Mn Rich Oxide Cathode Materials." Project ID# ES161, May 13-17, 2013. It appears to be on page 23 and it refers to a "Neutron pair-distibution-function (NPDF) study.

     

    It says: NPDF-study showed that not only the local structure but also the long-range structural coherence may play an important role in the electrochemical performance."

     

    Unless I am missing something, the reference to the long-range structural coherence sounds like it could almost be a "forward looking hysteresis" type phenomenon, like that
    which can be found in quantum physics, where a particle's future behaviour or state can affect its present behaviour or state. I will have to do some more research on this topic. Perhaps yourself or others may already be familiar with this.

     

    I mention hysteresis because studies on BMSs are showing that the SOC etc. for a lead-acid based battery are influenced by past inputs.
    28 Jul 2014, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    Thanks User 393.

     

    re": I mention hysteresis because studies on BMSs are showing that the SOC etc. for a lead-acid based battery are influenced by past inputs.

     

    This is expected from Puekerts Law; ironically, it's also reinforced by the failings of Peukerts Law, esp wrt temperature.

     

    Now to dig into neutron pairs! :)

     

    btw, here's the link for your pdf: the "proposal in 2102, http://1.usa.gov/1nTYM66
    another one, the report in 2013,
    http://1.usa.gov/1nU1o3K
    28 Jul 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> "My all too many years in engineering have taught me that every product can be significantly improved upon and that when the right economic incentives are present the probability of that happening is very nearly 100%. My bet is that Li batteries will be improved in time just as EM's supercabatteries will also be improved."

     

    Given that the current economically viable state of the art Li-Ion batteries are very near the limits that the laws of thermodynamics will allow us to get out of them, and that the sought after higher capacity lithium manganese et al
    compounds are proving to be an intractable problem, getting further gains from lithium based batteries is now a problem for science to solve, not engineering.

     

    It is evident from the current literature that achieving further gains in capacity and power from the more advanced next generation lithium based batteries is most definitely now completely in the realm of science, with engineering only entering the picture (in whole or in part) in order to design and build the needed very sophisticated test equipment in order to carry out the required scientific experiments.

     

    The difference between engineering and science can be thought of in the following way: in engineering, the issue is to solve the problem at hand in a way that is going to be within a reasonable budget; with science, money is no object in solving the problem at hand. A particle accelerator is an example of a "money is no object" budgetary philosophy.

     

    On the matter of research being continued indefinitely on lithium based batteries, the peer review and project assessment papers published by Argonne state that
    Argonne aims to commercialize some of the projects on which it works. In deciding whether or not to persue further research on the Li-Mn baseline oxide, Argonne has
    publicly stated in their material that such a decision will depend on the scientifically and price proven performance of the Li-Mn material being better than the next best
    cathode material. So, even Argonne, although being predominately a scientifically oriented research operation has its limits, at which point scientific research objectives ultimately give way to engineering practicalities and pragmatism.

     

    There are a number of very big names in the battery space that are not convinced at all that lithium based batteries will be the way of the future for electric vehicles. Elon musk, within the last six months or so, has gone on the public record as saying that capacitors will be the future for electric vehicles, and not batteries.

     

    IBM just recently cancelled their research program on Li-Air batteries. One year ago, Dr. Wilcke, the Li-Air project leader at IBM, had said that lithium-air batteries may never have any useful potential. Over two years ago, General Motors ended its involvement as a research partner with IBM on Li-Air batteries, saying that GM saw no benefits for auto applications in the Li-Air research program.

     

    Takeshi Uchiyamada, the father of the Toyota Prius, has stated that battery electric vehicles, with the present battery technology, will never be a practical choice for most people. Dr. Paul Alisantos (battery scientist) has stated that lithium based batteries may never be useful for powering electric vehicles.

     

    Again, based on the evidence so far, the present generation of lithium based batteries are clearly not going to be able to provide the answer for large public acceptance of electric vehicles or PHEV => 40 hybrids. At the same time, unlocking the much needed extra capacity from the Li-Mn based and other higher capacity chemistries is proving to be extremely difficult of solution.
    28 Jul 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    >User 393: The reference to neutrons is related to their use in a number of instruments that can do extremely close-in structural studies of materials, like a X-Ray diffractometer does for crystals, showing the precise positional relationships of the elements in a number of materials other than crystals.

     

    The actual study method is called neutron scattering, of which pdf (pair distribution function) is just one of the pieces of data or information that can be obtained.

     

    The voltage fade is of unknown origin, so we scientists poke around at it with all sorts of tools. If you zap something with voltage and it immediately behaves differently, the search for cause is on and they can't find it. It has all the appearance of being a preventable problem in electrochemistry. Similar problems have been solved.

     

    One thing we can do is look at a material every which way before and after and see if any of the many instruments we have at our disposal report something has changed that might explain it. Apparently they have been working on this for quite some time as neutron scattering studies are not the first step (expense). The instantaneous change after the first cycle was probably the best clue that something weird was in play.

     

    The working hypothesis guiding these neutron studies is probably some sort of electronic cloud redistribution that might be explained by a reorientation of elements in the structure. They will eventually, if they have not already, use incredibly expensive tunnelling and atomic force microscopes.

     

    Here's the bottom line: This must promise to be a big advance or they would not be doing this. That said, it looks very poor going forward that a "cure" for such a deeply-rooted "cause" will be found. Understanding, perhaps. And perhaps from that a new lead. But this material is probably a failure.
    28 Jul 2014, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> Edmund

     

    Thanks for the links and the info; I will have to find out how to do links in SA.

     

    -->> "Here's the bottom line: This must promise to be a big advance or they would not be doing this. That said, it looks very poor going forward that a "cure" for such a deeply-rooted "cause" will be found. Understanding, perhaps. And perhaps from that a new lead. But this material is probably a failure."

     

    You have it exactly right. The low toxicity and the low price of Mn and the high capacity of Li-Mn seems to add up to what is needed. Having an initial capacity of about 350 mAh/g, it shows great potential. Unfortunately, the irreversible drop in capacity from 352 mAh/g down to 287 mAh/g after the first cycle leaves it as being not a much better option than the chemistry that Tesla is already using. It would still be better on price and toxicity, but it is the higher capacity of the Li-Mn chemistry that is getting the popular interest.

     

    But, regardless of the voltage fade, one has to remember that Li-Mn batteries still have the significant capacity fade from the Mn. So, the current situation is that someone may be successful in solving the presently "most pressing problem" of voltage fade, but the battery will still have the "new most pressing problem" of capacity fade from the Mn that, with many years of research already being done, still has yet to be solved.

     

    Your educated guess as to a working hypothesis being "probably some sort of electronic cloud
    redistribution that might be explained by a reorientation of elements in the structure" just might be further complicated with the chemistry showing two peaks in the voltage profile. One of the comments from the voltage fade team in Project ID ES032 is that "the 3 volt region appears to grow at the expense of the 4 volt region." The team also says that with the voltage profile having two peaks, that this indicates that "distinct new crystal structures" are present in the highly cycled samples.

     

    Yes, we have miles to go before we sleep.
    28 Jul 2014, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Thanks for the links; I will have to find out how to do links in SA."

     

    User39, All you need to do is highlight the web address in your browser, copy and then paste it in the SA comment box. If this is what your comment suggests?
    28 Jul 2014, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    -->> iindelco. Thanks. Yes, the "missing link." That's the problem that I was referring to. I will have to give that a try.
    28 Jul 2014, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    User39, You can try posting it then open the link to make sure it works. Afterwards you can just delete your post from your trial run. Any questions just ask and you'll get plenty of help from here no problem.

     

    Sometimes if the address is too long they will not work on SA. You can shorten them here at this site and then post the new address this site creates. (Another belated thanks to HTL!).

     

    http://tinyurl.com
    28 Jul 2014, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Thanks iindelco, and vicariously, HTL. I'll give that a try.
    28 Jul 2014, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Last Friday SA sent contributors an e-mail saying they were severing their relationship with Yahoo! finance effective Monday, which means that SA articles will no longer be linked as news on Yahoo! The e-mail was also published as a main pages article:

     

    http://bit.ly/UshK8l

     

    When I first started writing for SA the Yahoo! links were a critical tool because I could write about a basket of companies and have the article show up as news for all of them. Over the last couple years that advantage has largely disappeared as Yahoo! adopted new policies that limit links to a single ticker symbol.

     

    I'm not sure how I feel about the change, although I'm hoping it may reduce the number of vapid fanboys who raise hell whenever I mention you know who.

     

    What do the rest of you think?
    28 Jul 2014, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I don' think that your use of derogatory and inflammatory terms like "vapid fanboys" does anything to elevate this forum. Your use of such language merely encourages others to do the same.
    28 Jul 2014, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    After six years of dealing with vapid fanboys on a regular and recurring basis, I've found that life is simpler when I call a spade a spade and avoid sugar coating. We get very little commentary in this forum that I'd consider vapid.

     

    Monotonous, overbearing and redundant, absolutely; but never vapid.
    28 Jul 2014, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3813) | Send Message
     
    I like the linking and the fact that SA articles showed up on Yahoo Finance, but it is no big loss for me as MarketWatch is my real home and they still show up there.

     

    FYI, SA isn't linked on Google or MSMoney. Or Fidelity.

     

    Just a WAG, but is this a result of SA flexing it's muscles and/or Yahoo not wanting to pay up for their content?
    28 Jul 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There were some comments to the article saying that Yahoo! was starting its own blog aggregation in association with Tumblr, which would be a big issue for me if I ran SA and paid them for link service. There used to be a 2007-2008 vintage article titled Who Reads SA that offered a startling view of SA's high-end demographics, but I've never seen an update.

     

    From my perspective as a contributor SA has a better class of readers than I ran into on the Nasdaq blog pages and The Street, but I've grown very comfortable with SA over six years and like the way they treat the old guard.
    28 Jul 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • PbC Believer
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    John - Even with your calling a spade-a-spade comment you walk on thin ice. It seems best for you and for all of us to just stop "calling names" and stick to the subject without engaging in character assassination. You must set the level of the bar if you wish to lead.

     

    http://n.pr/1o6sSio

     

    "[So what does all of this mean for people who want to, well, "call a spade a spade"? I urge caution. Mieder concludes his case study with the argument that "to call a spade a spade" should be retired from modern usage: "Rather than taking the chance of unintentionally offending someone or of being misunderstood, it is best to relinquish the old innocuous proverbial expression all together."]"
    28 Jul 2014, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    With due respect I've done just fine for the last six years without your well intentioned mentoring.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (579) | Send Message
     
    I had to look it up:

     

    va·pid adjective \ˈva-pəd, ˈvā-\

     

    : not lively or interesting : dull or boring

     

    ----------------------...

     

    "We get very little commentary in this forum that I'd consider vapid. Monotonous, overbearing and redundant, absolutely; but never vapid. "

     

    mo·not·o·nous adjective \mə-ˈnä-tə-nəs, -ˈnät-nəs\

     

    —used to describe something that is boring because it is always the same

     

    ---------------------

     

    That's pretty funny.... Well it's been much more profitable to be a Vapid fanboy than a monotonous axionista at least. That's kinda the point of investing, isn't it?

     

    (Definitions from Merriam-Webster)
    28 Jul 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Mallarkey. Political Correctness is the little brother of Newspeak, Big Brother, and the "I know what's good for you" 1984 society that the left-wing continues to run towards. Don't say anything that might offend the dear leader.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    Re. "Monotonous, overbearing and redundant, absolutely; but never vapid."; how close is second place to becoming as meaningless as first place?

     

    There are certainly good reasons I basically read SA starting with your comments to avoid the somewhat meaningless chatter in/around/about what you really have to say. Call me a stalker if you wish. I call it smart, efficient avoidance of the monotonous and redundant.

     

    As for your spice in calling spades spades, you do it well and a neutered-you would move you towards 1st place in meaninglessness.

     

    Your spice is preferred to the other because it is one of the valid last standing attacks against ridiculousness from mostly those with no valid basis.

     

    Someone's got to tell them.

     

    Repeatedly? Well there are a lot of slow learners out there, and inveritably visible when as easily expressed in blog forums such as this.

     

    Mine included. The miner that I am. Looking for nuggets. Wheat separated from the chaff.

     

    (Even tho you are not perfect, your batting percentage is very high and worthy of following - spice and all).

     

    The monotonous and redundant, not so much.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Touché

     

    It's worth noting, however, that most of the comments I find monotonous present factually accurate and well reasoned arguments on business issues that are beyond the limits of my sphere of influence. In many cases I don't even disagree with the substance. I'm just old enough to know that beating a dead horse is futile, even if you believe the horse deserves to be punished.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    John - I know that dead horses cannot recognize punishment; live horses still do, and rebellious or stubborn horses are somewhat immune.

     

    Regarding your real question about potential readership reduction due to the SA/Yahoo action, that impacts you but not necessarily us (me).
    28 Jul 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    John - PS: I do find interesting some of the factually accurate and well-reasoned arguments around your comments.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    JP: "With due respect I've done just fine for the last six years without your well intentioned mentoring."

     

    Arrogance.
    28 Jul 2014, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    Rugged - me thinks you mistakenly recognize acknowledged knowledge and wisdom as arrogance, which it is not.

     

    There is nothing necessarily wrong in stating the facts of self-recognized talent, especially when it can not only be established, but proved.

     

    When you're good, you're good.

     

    A little showboating is permissible against the naysayers and unaware or indignant.
    28 Jul 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Shirleyr
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    Thank you folks for giving me a good laugh today. It is fun watching how the exchange evolves based on the different perceptions. Perhaps there is an edginess because of the direction of AXPW share price? :o)
    28 Jul 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    More to the story: I wrote JP the following private message on February 4.

     

    "> For a PbC believer you sure seem to suffer from a high level of anxiety. You might be happier with a mutual fund.

     

    John, You generally have the patience of a saint, but I've recently noticed you seemingly adding 'insulting cheap shots' more often to the end of your replies, such as above.

     

    Most of us regular blog participants probably draw the same impressions of the postings of the nattering nabobs of negativism as you have.

     

    I'd hope you can take the extra measure of gentlemanly behavior by generally avoiding (the obvious) and withholding such cheap shots when you've already gone the extra length to offer a substantive response.

     

    It simply doesn't become you, IMO."

     

    I think my advice and recommendation for showing greater humility was sound; JP declined to consider pulling back from such edginess, citing self-confidence in a "sixth sense" for judging folks, having "very little patience for people whose primary objective is to create uncertainty and make me look foolish in the process", and declaring "there are times when a man needs to stand his ground" (now, where in Florida have I heard THAT before, with tragic consequence).

     

    I continue to believe a strong measure of humility, rather than self confidence -turning- arrogance enhances certitude and rectitude.
    29 Jul 2014, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Your private message is the appropriate way to raise those kinds of issues, not a pubic forum. The one thing I've learned over six years of blogging is that a writer cannot long survive if he backs down from bullies.

     

    Commenters who approach me as reasonable men with reasonable questions always get a reasonable response. Commenters who come on like a two pound hammer find an anvil. I'm one of the nicest guys around when left to my own devices, but I'm nobody's doormat.
    29 Jul 2014, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    RDC: "I think my advice and recommendation for showing greater humility was sound"

     

    hmmm...?
    You got that JP? I want to see the utmost humility from your next 30,000 comments.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1695) | Send Message
     
    "The California Energy Commission is preparing a new solicitation to fund medium and heavy duty advanced vehicle technology demonstrations. Total available funding for the ARFVTP-MD/HD (Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program – Medium Duty/Heavy Duty) effort is just shy of $24.9 million.

     

    CEC seeks to facilitate the development and commercialization of MHD vehicles for goods movement and freight transport. Pathways include natural gas vehicles, electric drive vehicles including hydrogen fuel cell power, and hybrid/range-extender combinations."

     

    http://bit.ly/1o5VGHV
    28 Jul 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's a shame that California is so geographically undesirable for a company based in metro Cincinnati.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    I sold some Axion this morning, but a half hour later TD Ameritrade is not showing any trade volume. Is there a situation where volume doesn't have to be reported?
    28 Jul 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    Milo2: Not that I'm aware of. Volume right now has been 37K.

     

    Probably just a slow feed from the data distributor. A phone call to the broker might get their tech people to investigate and fix.

     

    First trade was at the open and last 10:02 so far.

     

    HardToLoce
    28 Jul 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Thanks H.T. I am showing only 6k. I sold 20k @ .117.

     

    I am liquidating my position of 100k. I will take a loss of roughly $12k on this provided I can get out at $.12 Not a happy camper of course, but the loss will offset the gains I took in KNDI earlier. I will continue to follow Axion and look to get back in if some business is announced. I would rather buy on the way up at a higher price on positive news than wither another slow death on no news and bad financing.

     

    Of course I wish good tidings and success for those continuing to hold.
    28 Jul 2014, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    ATDF walking the bid up with no competition. Currently 175K (since 10:54) now bid $0.124 with ask from ATDF of $0.1299x10K.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, computer program is on the ask.
    28 Jul 2014, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    The wild action from late last week continues. Milo2, hope u were able to bail at 12.5 cents this morning.

     

    Only about 10% away from 10 cents again. That sucks, in so many ways. Not seeing many 'great buying opportunity" posts this time around.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    Yep.

     

    Speaking of which ...

     

    ETrade released version 5.33 of Power ETrade Pro which includes the abilty to export the Time & Sales panel to a .csv file which can be loaded to a spreadsheet, which I requested a couple years ago. Doesn't have everything I want, but has the critical stuff.

     

    Over the weekend I wrote a couple small awk and bash scripts that formats it to load into my spreadsheets.

     

    Ran first tests, looks pretty good. Needs a couple fixes of errors from ETrade and a design decision from me about what to do with the haphazard sequencing of bids/asks vs. sequence of trades.

     

    Anyway, same format as I'll be getting when I start the java fully automated pick up.

     

    So starting soon, I won't have to enter data all day long - just track b/a changes so I know which MMs are doing them.

     

    That'll allow me to progress in other areas faster.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    That's pretty cool, HTL. Hope u get enough of what u need.

     

    Whatcha gonna do w/ all that free-d up time?
    28 Jul 2014, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    @Mr I,

     

    Have dry powder, still plan to add if .10 arrives.

     

    "great buying opportunity" . . I have no idea, just a willingness to risk more spec$ at that price.

     

    and then there is that intriguing "quiet period" rumor (from long time poster RBrun) floating around . . and if management is planning to sell I see much ^.10/sh or if it is other news I see a share price rise, the old proverbial win-win . .
    28 Jul 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Apply to other stocks, both OTC and others, to see what differences I spot.

     

    Have vague visions of maybe springing for a web hosting service (far down the road I presume), to make at least the raw data, maybe spreadsheets & charts available for other folks for whatever stock they want.

     

    Wouldn't plan on making any money on it - just maybe cover my costs if it had enough value that folks would be willing to share costs.

     

    Have to think hard on that one - never having done a web site or the languages generally used on them, another long learning curve would be involved.

     

    I don't know if that'll ever happen.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    geo, unfortunately, u might even get ur 10 cent chance today. Last trade 10.1 cents.
    28 Jul 2014, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Noahfreak
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I'm still in the buying mood, but I don't have much dry powder left. I'll buy more if it dips below .10 though. It's either ballsy or stupid, but I'm sticking with the strategy either way. Nobody ever got rich trading stocks by doing what everyone else does. There's plenty of blood in the streets right now, and everybody knows what you're supposed to do then, but most still won't do it (until it's too late of course).
    29 Jul 2014, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    Noah, patience may be a virtue with regard to buying more Axion. There will be plenty of opportunity to buy below 0.10, perhaps even as low as 0.05 by the time this whole R/S shakes out and a new tidal wave of shares comes on the market. I may be a buyer again around December, depending on how this all shakes out and if a path to increased sales revenue ever emerges.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    ngs> Your mid pennies scenario, split adjusted, is plausible if the financing is ugly and there is still no clear revenue path. Far from the only scenario though. But sometimes it's important to remember why we are here.

     

    Every APC reader thinks the PbC is something really special and that clear paths (plural) will emerge. It's just a question of when. To me it seems foolish to invest a huge amount of time following the technology and the company only to try to time the unknowable -- the bottom of the market just before the awaited news catapults this thing. The company is selling now for $25 million. You're not in at that price? A BMW win or any of a medley of other possible clear paths and that will likely multiply in short order.
    29 Jul 2014, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • negoslavbg
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    December will be too late.
    29 Jul 2014, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    RA. From everything I can see, this company will still be worth $25M at the end of the year, but with twice as many shares outstanding. We know they need to raise another $10M or more to keep operations going. We know the share price is pushing down to 0.10. We have heard from TG that the next financing will likely involve issuing more equity at a "minimal" discount to market. So, ask yourself: how much of a discount below 0.10 will it take to attract enough investors to raise $10M? My outlook may be pessimistic, but in any event, I certainly don't see any rocket to the mood happening between now and the end of the year. If I miss out and you all become Axion millionaires, I will be very happy for you.

     

    negoslav, I will bookmark this post and talk to you in December.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    DO THE MATH!

     

    If it's 25M today how can it be worth 25M with 10M more in cash? And that's not even factoring in that the stock had already dropped considerable in anticipation of the RS.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking of value of our existing shares being still worth $25M, but, OK, if you want to do some math? Shares today worth 0.11 x 220M shares = $24.2M. $2M per quarter cash burn until December gives ~$21. Now say they raise $10M at a 20%-ish discount to today's price, let's say $0.085. That's another 120M shares added to the float. Not even counting all the commissions, fees, and warrants that will come with the deal, that gives a value of $31M with 340M shares outstanding, putting you at $0.09 per pre-split share. This is assuming the stock price doesn't tank anymore before the R/S and financing, so it could get worse. So, I stick by my opinion that there will be plenty of time to buy below $0.10.

     

    Now show me some math that makes the outcome in December higher that today's stock price. The only way I see things getting better than what I forecast is if significant and recurring sales materialize between now and then.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    That worst case scenario is still 80% above your previous call of 5 cents. The reason the stock price would be better is simple: Axion with 10M extra cash is far less likely to fail than without. Furthermore the main event that's depressing the share price would be over with. The stock price immediately after 2012 raise actually settled at 10 cents above the raise price.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • negoslavbg
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    I look forward to our conversation in December.
    I'm willing to bet $ 100 that December will be too late.
    So conversation in December will be quite interesting.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    That was hardly a worst case scenario. But we shall see.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    SolarCity’s New $201M Securitized Solar Portfolio Keeps the Capital Flowing

     

    SolarCity shows a strength for raising funding with its third set of asset-backed notes at a weighted yield of 4.32 percent on a portfolio of 118 megawatts.

     

    http://bit.ly/1o6rRqB
    28 Jul 2014, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I hope DG can better explain Axion's "fixed income stream investors" model. With solar, there can be long-term "feed-in tariffs" that ensure the revenue, thereby helping to make long-term debt structures possible. Not saying this is what SolarCity is doing, just wondering what Axion proposes to do.

     

    Not sure if and how that applies to storage.
    28 Jul 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    A link in wtb's linked article:

     

    The Encyclopedia of Solar Securitization Part I

     

    http://bit.ly/15jkE20

     

    Just started reading it. Maybe it can shed some light on what Axion might be trying to do.
    28 Jul 2014, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Hope Axion's fixed income stream investor efforts can be on the good side of this:

     

    "So with the solar industry caught in a Catch-22 partly of its own making, it appears the only solar developers likely to garner the attention of institutional investors during the final two years of the subsidy will be the ones able to make compelling arguments that they will survive the subsidy’s elimination and remain able to asset-manage these long-term investments. Their ability to avoid the “orphan” characterization will be rewarded even further with larger market shares as the subsidy-reliant competition folds up their tents."

     

    http://bit.ly/1o6Utjq

     

    But, $900k of Axion's projected $2,715k project net benefits is due to tax benefits, so it appears that the 20.2% IRR would be in jeopardy, but maybe not enough to kick them into "orphan" status. Much I would need to learn and know to figure this out without Axion's help.

     

    http://bit.ly/1o6Utjq
    28 Jul 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Noahfreak
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    By 2016 or 2017, if the trend continues of course, PV solar should be at grid parity without subsidies.
    29 Jul 2014, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    High-Performance Utah Home Wins 2014 Gold Nugget Grand Award for Best Zero Net Energy Design

     

    http://bit.ly/1o6Aq4L

     

    "Home buyers can purchase a net zero home starting in the low $500,000s."

     

    and that's in the no-doubt low tax, low regulation state of Utah!

     

    That's a lotta green!

     

    Gold Nugget Awards 2014 winners: http://bit.ly/1o6AMIo
    28 Jul 2014, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    Got another nibble.
    28 Jul 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    OT: Got an old hard drive dying in my workstation. Fortunately, it's just an old PATA and I long ago recovered everything off it I needed.

     

    Was driving me crazy hearing the rattle until I confirmed through logs what it was.

     

    I'll remove it tonight after I do my normal backup.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmm... 1.4 M taded and the price is off .0071?

     

    Looks like somebody bailed.

     

    And somebody got a hell of a deal!
    28 Jul 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Well timed Instablog JP - it appears, given the volume, the PIPER's were not out of shares. Hopefully today marks the day they do run out!
    28 Jul 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Galenfeha, Inc. Completes Field Testing, Begins Production and Shipping of New Battery System

     

    "After successful field testing, the management team of Galenfeha, Inc. (OTCPK:GLFH), is pleased to announce the start of production and shipping of its Microprocessor Controlled LiFePO4 Dry-Cell Battery System."

     

    http://bit.ly/1nSqXCh
    28 Jul 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    ... so I'm thinking with a stock price at .1098, this would imply a 50:1 reverse spilt? That is assuming the new Air Force man is working on that vs. outright selling the company...

     

    Am I right that at the present price, a 50:1 split would theoretically be needed for the aforementioned "Nasdaq listing"???
    28 Jul 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The Nasdaq Capital Market has alternative bid price requirements of $4 and $3, depending on the issuer.

     

    The general rule for new listings is $4.

     

    To qualify for the $3 price alternative an issuer would need:

     

    (i) average annual revenues of $6 million for three
    years, or
    (ii) net tangible assets of $5 million, or
    (iii) net tangible assets of $2 million and a 3 year operating history

     

    http://bit.ly/TomC9i

     

    Axion's revenues for the last three years were $8.1, $9.8 and $10.2 million, so it satisfies the first test.

     

    "Net tangible assets" is Total assets reduced by Total liabilities and Intangible assets like goodwill and patents. Since Axion wrote off its intangible assets several years ago and had $6.9 million of equity at March 31st, it should have at least $5 million in net tangible assets before factoring in any new financing.

     

    Even if the stock price wallows in the $0.10 range, as long as the new investors agree Axion should have no problem getting to Nasdaq with a 1 for 30 reverse.
    28 Jul 2014, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP... that clears it up!
    28 Jul 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Volume today 2.1 million shares. Weak hands moving to stronger IMO.
    28 Jul 2014, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Or weak hands becoming stronger... ;)
    28 Jul 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the compliment ;)
    28 Jul 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    RA,Looks like somebody shaking the tree and picking up cheap shares!
    28 Jul 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    I find Seeking Alpha to be a breeding ground for shorters to push inaccurate data. Some stocks that I have owned that have had "hit" pieces written about them are EZCH, QUIK, NNVC, CGEN, and possibly KNDI. It appears that analysts touting long positions must be very careful in what they say and forecast, but not if you are critical of a company. One can make up fantastically inaccurate comments and be held to no liability. Although I believe shorting to be an important component to the markets, the internet through outlets like SA must have to be held to some kind of standard, at least equal to the buyside.
    28 Jul 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Same things happens, but it seems to me on a much bigger scale with bio-tech stocks. NWBO is the best example.
    28 Jul 2014, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Frequency regulation opportunity. Two of the award winners will utilize batteries from an unknown source. Sigh...

     

    Ontario to Become Energy Lab with 34MW of ‘All-of-the-Above’ Energy Storage

     

    http://bit.ly/1o7HqhM

     

    Edit: Remember when?

     

    http://on.fb.me/1o7Ip1t
    28 Jul 2014, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1695) | Send Message
     
    Those who follow ePower will be interested in this interview with the founder of Wightspeed--maker of retrofit series hybrid power trains for medium-duty trucks. Very similar business plan:

     

    http://bit.ly/1oINyhf
    28 Jul 2014, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Corvus Energy, GMC Close Financing Agreement

     

    "Corvus Energy has the largest portfolio of deployed Energy Storage Systems (NYSE:ESS) in the marine industry making up over 90% of the marine market and the greatest breadth of experience in the sector. Designed to provide rugged high power energy storage, Corvus systems are found in hybrid and fully electric powered offshore supply vessels, tugboats, and ferries. Corvus Energy systems are also in the process of being adopted in hybrid port cranes, electric light rail, hybrid trains, as well as in several other applications. As the only lithium battery purpose designed for the challenges of working in a heavy industrial environment, the Corvus solution is also the only one to carry DNV, Lloyd’s Register, and ABS Type Approval certification."

     

    http://bit.ly/1oDplwT
    28 Jul 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It should be noted that GMC is Green Marine Capital.
    28 Jul 2014, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if this has already been posted or not.

     

    Walking into the 2014 Intersolar North America San Francisco exhibit it became apparent there was a story embedded in the products and services displayed on the three different floors of the Moscone Center West. The third floor of the exhibits was dominated by PV structure companies which have entered into a competitive blood bath since our last report. Dominating the first floor were Chinese PV manufacturers Jinko Solar (NYSE: JKS), Canadian Solar (NYSE: CSIQ), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) all sharing the center exhibit space. Although Chinese solar is a popular topic due to newly imposed import duties, and the PV racking industry is highly competitive, the dominant story of this year’s event was storage which dominated both the conference and the second floor 2014 Intersolar NA exhibits. On-going storage side-sessions were held adjacent to the storage focused exhibits.

     

    http://bit.ly/1qDuRxX
    28 Jul 2014, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    Was there another trade show that Axion was going to be at in SF? I'm wondering if it's worth a visit at times like this.
    28 Jul 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Ranna- This is why some of us question what mgmt. and specifically the sales group is doing at AXPW.

     

    The last few conference calls and SEC filings have shown a shift from transportation toward stationary storage projects that tie in with Solar and Wind. Add in specific shout out to being in California and Hawaii and I simply don't understand why Axion was not at this conference. The other conference where Vani was speaking at was as a guest of Viridity. To a person watching it looks like AXPW is a lackey of Viridity. AXPW needs 30 more Viridity's not to be seen as a part of Viridity.

     

    I look forward to what will happen in this area in the next couple of months. I expect DDG is busy with financing that is taking up the majority of his time. Once that is done we need a sales shakeup.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    mr h, I've long thought the lack of visible sales beef-up over the last year or so was due to upper mgmt's concern about enough cash to support that effort. I hope they structure the upcoming funding to provide enough cash to finally give that effort a much needed boost. I say sell some more shares, if necessary, for that---say, raise $12.5mil instead of $10mil, for example, although the recent price drop doesn't help in that regard.

     

    Not sure how much DG will comment on the sales effort in a couple weeks. Even a little more info might help a lot, though.
    29 Jul 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    BMW strikes charging station deals

     

    BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) says it will announce later today a deal with NRG Energy to let i3 owners to recharge their vehicles for free at NRG stations in California through 2015.

     

    The automaker will also partner with Robert Bosch to develop a charging station which can be sold to dealers and businesses for under $7K.
    28 Jul 2014, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Older article but what's with the statement below?

     

    New Battery Is Changing the Grid

     

    "After being spun out of an incubator at Carnegie Mellon and then spending close to $80 million on R&D, Axion has developed the PowerCube, a mobile, large-scale storage unit about the size of a semi-truck trailer that sends or receives power from the grid."

     

    http://bit.ly/1rUQk6J
    -
    Oh Jeez, now I see. Uggh.

     

    http://bit.ly/V91DxJ
    28 Jul 2014, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    It turns out the reference to being spun out of a Carnegie-Mellon incubator was to Aquion Energy (per the article cited secondly, above).
    29 Jul 2014, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It gets a little confusing to reporters when two battery companies with similar sounding names (Axion vs Aquion) are located within 50 miles of each other. Since Axion was there first I think the new kid ought to move.
    29 Jul 2014, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion should hire Aquions' PR and sales guys.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stanford Team Achieves ‘Holy Grail’ of Battery Design: A Stable Lithium Anode

     

    "Generally, to be commercially viable, a battery must have a coulombic efficiency of 99.9 percent or more, ideally over as many cycles as possible. Previous anodes of unprotected lithium metal achieved approximately 96 percent efficiency, which dropped to less than 50 percent in just 100 cycles—not nearly good enough. The Stanford team’s new lithium metal anode achieves 99 percent efficiency even at 150 cycles.

     

    “The difference between 99 percent and 96 percent, in battery terms, is huge. So, while we’re not quite to that 99.9 percent threshold, where we need to be, we’re close and this is a significant improvement over any previous design,” Cui said. “With some additional engineering and new electrolytes, we believe we can realize a practical and stable lithium metal anode that could power the next generation of rechargeable batteries.”"

     

    http://bit.ly/1nVicHI
    28 Jul 2014, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3111) | Send Message
     
    Given all the chatter about the reverse split...

     

    http://bit.ly/UIg3Uh

     

    [Patrick, this is an attempt to be funny, not negative]
    29 Jul 2014, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That would be funny and appropos in any event.
    29 Jul 2014, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (274) | Send Message
     
    Nice!
    29 Jul 2014, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    Since we're going into a reverse split, I can only presume that this time we're attracting smarter investors.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Encore! :)
    29 Jul 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I think you should count that as a success in your crusade for Axion transparency.
    29 Jul 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Okay Rick, THAT's funny!!
    29 Jul 2014, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    another day, let's make it a green one! August and NS testing only 3 days away :)
    29 Jul 2014, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    07/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 66, MaxTrSz: 290000, Vol: 2101933, AvTrSz: 22601
    Min. Pr: 0.1010, Max Pr: 0.1270, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1113
    # Buys, Shares: 46 630533, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1148
    # Sells, Shares: 46 1461400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1099
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1070
    Buy:Sell 1:2.32 (30.00% "buys"), DlyShts 475523 (22.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.52%

     

    Too much to decide what to put here.

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    EnerSys(NYSE:R) Reaches 5,000 Mark in Convert to Electric(NYSE:SM) Program
    EnerSys(R) Helps Customers Switch From Internal Combustion to Battery Electric Lift Trucks

     

    http://bit.ly/1tn6BVi;highlight=

     

    "READING, Pa, July 29, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- EnerSys® (NYSE:ENS), the global leader in stored energy for industrial applications, has helped its customers change out 5,000 lift trucks to battery power as part of its Convert to ElectricSM (C2ESM) program. The C2ESM program is the first and only dedicated effort to help companies using internal combustion lift trucks switch to electric fleets.

     

    ...

     

    Along the way, we've developed unique tools that allow customers to compare various power options, customized to their particular operating environments," says Long. "So they can get an idea of their costs and energy consumption right up front."

     

    EnerSys also introduced ZBC Designer™ — software that analyzes a customer's operational requirements, such as number of trucks, number of shifts, and type of work performed, and designs the optimum configuration of batteries and chargers for each site.

     

    "With the Zero Battery ChangeSM (ZBCSM) program, customers need just one battery per truck, and they can quickly recharge the battery during regular breaks. There's no need for time-consuming battery changing, no need for a separate battery room," says Long. "Our software shows customers which charging options will work best for their environment: once-a-day opportunity charging, or fast-charging that allows them to charge while the driver is on break."

     

    Noting customer satisfaction and the expanding market trend toward electric power for lift trucks, EnerSys plans to extend the C2ESM program's outreach to dealers and end-users nationally. For more information, go to convert2electric.com."
    29 Jul 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Oahu to connect ocean wave energy to power grid

     

    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

     

    http://hrld.us/1tndVjR

     

    "The push to use ocean waves as renewable energy is about 30 years behind the wind power industry, said Steve Kopf, founder and senior partner with Northwest Energy Innovations."
    29 Jul 2014, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    ATDF puts in an offer of 408.8K @ $0.113 at 12:02.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Now $0.111
    29 Jul 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3560) | Send Message
     
    Panasonic signs up for gigafactory.
    http://s.nikkei.com/UI...

     

    Doesn't look like near the support that Tesla was looking for.
    29 Jul 2014, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    In the Lake District I had the fortune of having my photo taken beside one of the rare Renault Twizys to be found in the UK. It was being used as an advertising billboard. It is as heinous "in person" as it is in photos. Bolstered by its inspirational, genius and award winning design, it has sold a total of 14 units in the UK in 2014. Was nice to have my photo taken by a rare collectors item. Wonder if the manager of the Twizy project has been fired, promoted, now works in a cubicle in the basement, or was hired by another company for his leading edge thinking.

     

    The Twizy billboard stated that the UK government had purchased an unspecified number of Twizys for rental to tourists to promote green tourism in the Lake District. The UK government must be about the only customer. Maybe it is that lack of windows thingy.
    29 Jul 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As you might have predicted, I thought the Twizzy was both cool and not too outrageously priced. I wouldn't necessarily want to own one because of the inherent limitations, but it did bring a smile.
    29 Jul 2014, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I just came back from a vacation in southern France. We saw a lot of Twizys there especially on our short (but very expensive) trip to Monaco.
    Most of them were operated by Mobee which is a car sharing provider: http://bit.ly/1toz6SD
    29 Jul 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Excellent, metro!

     

    Can we expect a new avatar from it?

     

    Maybe with enough publicity the company will make a custom Retromeanderthal version for you.
    29 Jul 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    VD - I think ii posted this link yesterday, but I wanted to point out a paragraph where the companies hadn't necessarily determined what type of storage to use yet. TG said we didn't even bid on the IID RFP in CA. Unacceptable to be getting such reports.

     

    Cold call please. Let's work on selling something.

     

    http://bit.ly/1o7HqhM

     

    - 14.8 megawatts of battery energy storage from Hecate Energy, a Nashville, Tenn.-based energy project, and 4 megawatts of battery energy storage from Canadian Solar Solutions, a North American subsidiary of Chinese solar PV company Canadian Solar, round out the project list. IESO’s announcement didn’t include details on what types of batteries would be used by both project developers, but it did note that it was considering a wide range of technologies, including flow batteries, as well as traditional closed electrochemical batteries. IESO’s new storage projects will include high-voltage transmission and distribution grid-connected system, though it didn’t clarify which projects would fit in each category. Ontario Power Generation, the public utility that generates about 60 percent of the province’s electricity, plans later this year to procure the remaining 16 megawatts or so required to meet the province’s 50-megawatt mandate.
    29 Jul 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Hydrogenics selected for 2MW for IESO:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/UJaKDU
    29 Jul 2014, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    As ePower has an exclusive contract with Axion, could NS also do so?
    What if NS wanted thousands of batteries? Could they contract for exclusive production, that would not provide any additional for other companies to even buy?

     

    Do you think Axion would sign on to such a deal?
    29 Jul 2014, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: I would think that even if both parties were willing, (NYSE:NSC) couldn't tie up all the slots because they couldn't convert units fast enough with limited resources split among various new rebuilds, normal maintenance, etc.

     

    But a *scheduled* production slot allocation that matched up well with what (NSC) could actually use might be quite feasible and would provide a nice boost to (APXW) sentiment.

     

    Here, let me take another hit on that pipe there!. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2014, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • kevin lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of taking a hit off that pipe,
    I got the impression ePower was worried they wouldn’t be able to get the batteries they wanted when thy announced their battery purchase for 10 trucks in June of last year.

     

    http://prn.to/1toyxs1

     

    ePower Chief Technology Officer Jay Bowman commented, about the Axion Power PbC battery purchase saying
    “Our testing has been going very well, so we felt it important to get this order booked now.”

     

    He made it sound urgent, as if he knew, or thought, it might be difficult to obtain the quantity he wanted.

     

    You guys better start getting in line if you want the batteries you need.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    If NSC decides to seriously ramp hybridization following the NS-999 test, it could be a wise move to help support their partner. They could issue a purchase order that would help Axion raise funds. Whether they take deliver or not, they already know they can store batteries for over a year...
    29 Jul 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Somebody likes the price @ .101... 345,000+ shares. Now that's commitment.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    Volume less than yesterday and ADTF might have dropped its final load.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Man, Hope so!
    29 Jul 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2748) | Send Message
     
    I think remaining PIPErs decided to accelerate selling once the share price started approaching their basis. We should know when they are done when volume dies off again. Today's volume less than half yesterday's.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    More like somebody just dumped another 535,800 shares.
    29 Jul 2014, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    More like strong support at $0.10.

     

    Also, (NASDAQ:MXWL) and (OTCQB:AXPW) continue their Tango.
    29 Jul 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like