Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (465)
Track new comments
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    Woof 'n' howdy!
    22 Aug 2014, 05:42 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC,

     

    You are early. Go back to bed ! :)
    22 Aug 2014, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Last concentrator before the stock trend reverses I guess :)
    22 Aug 2014, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    Darn; missed the podium.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • john lowe
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    How about: "recapturing lost energy. Refill every time you brake."
    22 Aug 2014, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    There are Train Tweets, what about Truck Tweets?

     

    "Truck Spotting"?
    22 Aug 2014, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The current tag line is "Double Green Heavy Hybrids*"
    (• Better for the environment and your bottom line)
    22 Aug 2014, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Could rip off that Capital One ad: "Watts in Your Wallet? More Green!".

     

    HardToLove
    22 Aug 2014, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • todi18
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    I don't know any truckers but it seems to me that saving fuel is not a one time (at fill up) event. You want them to think about it every mile and say damn this is fun. It's a whole new driving experience. Good luck putting that in 3 words.
    22 Aug 2014, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • john lowe
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    That sounds good.
    22 Aug 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    or...."Green-on-Green Heavy Hybrids"? You could even come out with a smaller model called the Van-Goghh...
    22 Aug 2014, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • robert barry
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    only mildly unrelated, and all you daily followers of the axion story may know this, but what happened to bmw? Did they formally take a pass on the axion battery for start/stop? Is start/ stop not happening as predicted?
    22 Aug 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    RB - Simply stated, we have no idea.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >robert barry ... BMW reportedly made an introduction between Axion & a battery OEM. Then the whole process just died out. There is no way of knowing if something is or isn't going on but I'd bet it just isn't. The good thing I get from this is that BMW finished their R&D with good enough results to make that introduction. The numbers of unit production probably were not projecting high enough to entice a battery OEM to move & Axion is not a company that BMW can do business directly with because of financial & supply chain issues.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • robert barry
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich and Stefan for your thoughts. Seems axion should make a direct comment and status update on that even if that makes them say it died and here's why...
    22 Aug 2014, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >robert barry ... Axion has, in its way, already said it died. It got put on the "back burner" and other indicators until it is just not mentioned anymore. Now, if you think Axion is going to tell any details of why ... you've got a long wait ahead.
    22 Aug 2014, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    The program isn't dead, but delayed. The PbC's sweet spot is in mild hybrids, like in Kia's supercharger concept. A simply start/stop doesn't provide enough margin for a PbC. Since mild hybrids are only beginning to appear this year or next, it's simply a matter of waiting. BMW has still met with Axion bi-weekly and introduced battery manufacturers to them. It's not dead until mild hybrids appear without the PbC.
    22 Aug 2014, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    robert - you may want an obituary published even tho it is only written at this point, and cannot be published before the death occurs. So, everything is still alive and maybe only sick, or actually nearly ready to be released for continuing life; and the patient and medical staff are not talking. That's it.
    22 Aug 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Ranna-

     

    You actually have no idea is BMW is still meeting bi-weekly. We simply do not know.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, right. We have no idea what is going on with BMW. All we know is they tested the heck out of it and it was with them for a long time. This tells us it has characteristics that are well understood and some that are appreciated. We know they understand PbC very well. What we don't know is everything they are looking for in their future apps and how PbC stacks up against the competition. We have no way of knowing which segments it is targeted for or how they will weigh its pluses and minuses. And the field, like PbC, is ever changing.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "Seems axion should make a direct comment and status update on that even if that makes them say it died and here's why... "

     

    Preaching to the choir, but Drich is right, they basically said it was dead for the time being, while at the same time leaving the carrot dangling out there.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    Back burner is NOT dead.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • todi18
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Both sides can have fun with this but "crock pot" comes to mind.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "dead for the time being"
    22 Aug 2014, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    "Back burner is NOT dead. "

     

    Napping? If so, question is whether it is a pre-schooler's type nap or a Rip Van Winkle nap.
    22 Aug 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Back burner is far from dead, but as one who likes making things like New Orleans style red beans that spend a lot of time on the back burner, some projects simply proceed at their own pace and there's nothing you can do to hurry them along.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    "ePower Heavy Hybrid"
    Sounds searchable and is.
    23 Aug 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    Hey gang, sorry I'm a little late to the party on this one:

     

    ePower - fill your wallet, not your truck.
    24 Aug 2014, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    joHN etal. = right! Back burner can even include "waiting" on/or for someone else.
    26 Aug 2014, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Pre-market, very unusual, sell of 24.5K for $0.0853 with NITE best on both sides @ $0.0853/$0.091 and 10K on both sides.

     

    Also unusual, and significance unknown, we had 2 x 5K trades last night AH for $0.0896 and then $0.0897. These don't appear in the FINRA REG SHO EOD short sales volumes.

     

    HardToLove
    P.S. this A.M.'s 24.5K will not appear in tonight's REG SHO EOD summary either.
    22 Aug 2014, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Really puzzled by the pre-market trade, but maybe they desperately needed to clear some funds for the ZBB offering? :)
    22 Aug 2014, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    ZBB just priced a $12.9 million underwritten public offering of straight common stock at Wednesday's closing price with NO DISCOUNT.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1ohOOaL

     

    Their original filing was for 9.6 million shares and the pricing amendment bumped the offering size to 11.52 million, which is a good indicator of solid demand.

     

    While I've known the Maxim Group for over a decade, I'm not familiar with ZBB's underwriter, the Craig-Hallum Capital Group.
    22 Aug 2014, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Whoa .... it's August, not September ... what's up with that??

     

    Didn't they get the memo?
    22 Aug 2014, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Wasn't the offering price at $1.12 and the closing price yesterday $1.44?
    22 Aug 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I was wrong about the No Discount because the $1.12 price is a 9% haircut from Wednesday's close. That's what happens when I skim and type too fast.

     

    Deal pricing usually involves a three day period.

     

    The offering price is determined based on the closing price for Day 1.

     

    The underwriting agreements are finalized and signed during normal business hours on Day 2.

     

    The pricing amendment is filed with the SEC after hours on Day 2 or pre-market on Day 3, which then becomes the effective date of the offering.

     

    ZBB's close on Wednesday was $1.22. So the straight common went off at a $0.10 discount. With partial or full warrant coverage the price should have been higher.

     

    The importance of the ZBB transaction is that it shows how full underwritten deals are priced. Those who fret that Axion will end up taking a 30% to 50% haircut on its underwritten deal simply don't understand the difference between unregistered and underwritten deals. The fear based price pounding the stock has taken over the last month is unwarranted.
    22 Aug 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • robert barry
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    this is an axion board, but curious on the zbb offering. Its about a 40% dilution, which is huge. Does anyone know why they did that? I believe it's the second offering this year. Is it just the public market atm? The earlier offering was around $2.25 per share. Were those takers just fools?
    22 Aug 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Robert, I am glad you posted this, because that's almost exactly how RS works with penny stocks that don't have revenues and sales. Expect the same with AXPW unless they have the promised sales, & remember ZBB does have an order backlog now.

     

    IMO, all companies (especially bio-techs & penny stocks with high cash burn) have been raising capital for the past year every time the market would allow it, whether they needed the cash that day or not. IMO, it's about the coming rate hikes and fed moves next year.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Holy doom and gloom, Looney Toon!
    22 Aug 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • robert barry
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    thanks LT...it gets endlessly frustrating in dealing with companies with no profit. Some technical discussion a month or two ago said zbb "had gotten their offering out of the way" in reference to the offering earlier this year at $2.25 per share. Who "scooped up" those shares and how do they feel now? When does it end?
    22 Aug 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    When does it end?
    When they become profitable and have no need to raise money.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "When they become profitable and have no need to raise money."

     

    No. When hopelessness gives way to a new larger crowd of money that sees cause for great expectations. PLUG got down to $.12 and then less than a year later it was issuing shares, no reverse split, at almost $6.00. The price exploded not from earnings but from expectations of future earnings. At this stage for Axion it's not about financial statements; it's about news and getting the buzz to start.

     

    Bought some shares today at $.088.
    22 Aug 2014, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    RA,
    You are not waiting for the IPO?
    22 Aug 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yep news. So far we have gone from an information balloon full of hot air to a balloon emptied with a vacuum. Hoping we get something but don't want any more tomfoolery.
    22 Aug 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    "The fear based price pounding the stock has taken over the last month is unwarranted."

     

    :-) Most likely for somewhat different reasons but I agree, John. And I'm adding ahead of the offering because it just might be a better share price now.

     

    I don't think Maxim would be looking at underwriting the public offering without strong confidence it will be able to sell all units offered (share + warrant) before Oct. 1. I'm thinking that confidence could very well be attributable to representations by prospective PowerCube buyers holding competing bid proposals that Axion would win the business if on a more sound financial footing. And, appointment of DDG as CEO and Chairman improved outlook for rapid commercialization IMO.
    22 Aug 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    They're also pleasantly surprised by the response they've been getting from the stockholder base. They can't get over how knowledgeable and committed the existing stockholders are.
    22 Aug 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    topcat> Just dipping my toe in a little here and there on dips. Exciting news could happen at any time out of the blue with this stock. After the financing I will reevaluate whether I want to go overweight again as I have in the past.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    GKN and Go-Ahead Group to install carbon fiber flywheels on 500 city buses

     

    GKN Hybrid Power uses F1 technology to improve fuel efficiency of London buses

     

    Posted on: 8/21/2014

     

    http://bit.ly/1ohQa57-

     

    "500 buses over the next two years.

     

    ...

     

    uses the stored energy to power an electric motor which helps accelerate the bus back up to speed, resulting in more than 20 percent fuel savings at a significantly lower cost than battery hybrid alternatives.

     

    ...

     

    The system is designed to last for the life of the bus eliminating the need for any battery changes.

     

    ...

     

    reduce our fuel consumption and C02 emissions so improving air quality for all those living, working and visiting the city

     

    ...

     

    the Gyrodrive technology is being further developed for other mass transit markets including trams, construction and agricultural equipment. Earlier this year GKN announced the acquisition of Williams Hybrid Power from Williams Grand Prix Engineering Limited to form GKN Hybrid Power, which is focused on delivering complete hybrid solutions across multiple vehicle, power and industrial markets."
    22 Aug 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Funny, We're aligned with Maxim Group for the offering and the stock has computer program fleas again. Or it could just be the clean-up of the warrants with the last group carrying the plague. I consider both groups "peas in a pod".
    22 Aug 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Whenever they get NASDAQ uplisting, AXPW will rally back and forget this weakness.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, I look at it this way. I don't consider the uplisting to be a path in and of itself to prosperity at Axion. I do think that if they do things that are considered positive for the company, like err um some sales, that the uplisting will have them in a neighborhood where they will get better recognition for their positive results.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Looks like we had some buys this morning?
    22 Aug 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1285) | Send Message
     
    feeling worn out today after a serious hives outbreak last night (mouth/throat). thanks to all that have contacted or been contacted by MAXIM and shared the experience with the concentrator.
    22 Aug 2014, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Billion003
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Will potential buyers of Axion new issue shares be privy to information not presently available to shareholders? Its hard to imagine large institutional or private placement investors buying in without a lot more detail about what's going on with the company.
    22 Aug 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Yes it is isn't it Billion…
    22 Aug 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Investors in a public offering never have access to non-public information.

     

    The entire purpose of the underwritten offering system is to require the underwriter to do a deep due diligence dive that examines everything in detail, which allows the investors to rely on the work done by the underwriter without having to either duplicate the underwriter's work or question its conclusions.
    22 Aug 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    08/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 597450, AvTrSz: 13578
    Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0880
    # Buys, Shares: 22 189450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0891
    # Sells, Shares: 22 408000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0874
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.15 (31.71% "buys"), DlyShts 57000 (09.54%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.97%

     

    We need to hire a new painter – the close was right in line with trading of the last half hour, which ranged from $0.0875 to $0.0896. Yes, there was a buy at 15:59:23 of 1,800 shares for $0.0896 but the four trades before it, latest to oldest, were $0-.0875 (15K), $0.0876 (10K),$0.0895 (10K) and $0.0895 (1k). These all happened from 15:56 to 15:59. The trade before that sequence was a sell at 15:28 of 25K for $0.0875.

     

    I continue to think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up, due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.

     

    At last it looks like the low-volume days I thought would be needed to slow the descent are taking effect. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through ...

     

    There were really no outliers today.

     

    On the traditional TA front, we had a very narrow spread that resulted in a hammer, indicating a bullish reversal 60% of the time, only a bit better than random, according to Bulkowski. Unfortunately he also notes that when reversal does occur the rise is not very strong, “... ranking 65 out of 103 candles where 1 is best”. We also have four consecutive days of lower highs and two of those days with lower lows. Today had rising volume on a lower trading range and now six consecutive days of lower VWAP. I think this supports the weak appreciation if we do get a reversal.

     

    However, the Bollinger band lower extreme, $0.0846, has contacted our low now. This offers the possibility that a tendency to revert to the mid-point may show up. With the upper extreme at $0.1114 the mid-point would be ~$0.093. The limits are still widely spread and converging (upper dropping significantly faster), so the mid-point will change.

     

    The adjusted trend lines' resistance today is ~$0.102 and the support is ~$0.076. So our current trading range is almost smack-dab in the middle right now. So this doesn't add ...

     

    The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:28. Again, ...

     

    My non-traditional stuff remains negative but the move towards less negativity continues. My original ...

     

    There were two AH trades for 10K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume ...

     

    Daily short percentage had its second day of (very small) increase now. I think this indicates the effects of the high-volume wide-spread days are now fading. I expect a sizable jump up in the percentage either today or tomorrow if volume remains low and/or spread stays relatively “tight”. Consider that “real” short could be slightly higher as noted in the prior paragraph.

     

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 13 of the 44 trades, 29.55%. These 396,323 shares were 66.34% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 4 of the larger trades, ...

     

    The other 31 trades, 70.45% of the day's trades, traded 201,127 shares, 33.66% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0880. 18 trades, ...

     

    The usual is in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Aug 2014, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • User 17609152
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the award announcement for the Hawaii Electric ESS is coming next Friday. I think Axion has a good shot at this as the project requirements (long cycle life, 90% round trip efficiency, .05s response time, etc) look like they closely align with the PbC's strengths. Any thoughts on this? I haven't look at the competitors, but I'm curious what the metrics of other chemistries look like (Li-Ion, Zn-Br flow, VN flow, etc).
    22 Aug 2014, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    User 17 - Did Axion make a bid for HI? I thought I had read they didn't, but were considering hiring somebody to work on the Left Coast in the future.
    22 Aug 2014, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (501) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion has a competitive storage component. To win the contract they would need to partner (or even just sell batteries to) a company that has can build the physical structure and can service and support it in Hawaii with dedicated resources from beginning to end.
    22 Aug 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    The top of my laundry list of complaints about AXPW's marketing is that they have not released an example of the IRR of the PowerCube system though they claim it is good and have given us the tools to calculate it.

     

    So I calculated the IRR using the following website: http://bit.ly/1oi1oqk

     

    I used the following inputs:

     

    4 PowerCubes = $1.1M
    Price per cube of $275,000 (in small batches).
    A PowerCube provides $9000 of revenue monthly or $108000 annually.
    Assuming that over a 6 year lifetime the PowerCube loses 20% of its capacity and that translates directly to a 20% loss in revenue averaged over 6 years, and assuming a 3.125% discount rate (underwritten by large investment banks).

     

    The IRR = 28.868%
    and
    Net Present Value = $260,829

     

    IRR of 28.87% is excellent if I am not mistaken...
    22 Aug 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand, maybe I am being too conservative. Let's assume that the system can perform as intended (loss of total capacity does not affect the FR capabilities) for 10 years before being recycled and that revenue from FR will only increase as more solar and wind comes on line (say by 10% a year for the first 5 years and leveling off as the system reaches its optimum operating capacity).
    Then IRR = 45.38%
    and
    Net Present Value = ~$1 million
    22 Aug 2014, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, perhaps one reason Axion leaves the IRR calculation to others reflects opportunity for multiple "returns" on investment. FR revenue provides one basis of estimating IRR. Some buyers could find the PowerCube more "profitable" when applied in cost savings application (avoidance/reduction of demand charges) or used for both FR revenue generation and demand charge avoidance.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    I guess my point is that the published numbers suggest FR alone makes the PowerCube bankable and I am really excited to see if these "investors" who are interested in including PowerCubes in an FR REIT bear fruit. If they can effectively sell the security to retail investors, they will max out Axion's production line in no time.

     

    I just think providing an example in the investor presentation would be helpful to people who are unfamiliar with the company.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Patrick-

     

    I think you have greatly overstated the IRR on the projects. In fact Mr. Granville went through this in a letter back in 2013.

     

    http://bit.ly/X1kGKM

     

    No one is going to lend money to a business with an unknown life @ 3.125%. I'd double that. Also the 500kw was $320k and didn't fully include all the costs needed. Add another $100-$150k to to the upfront costs and the IRR gets quite low quickly. Even if you add a 5% utility rate increase to offset battery losses.

     

    The system may (I emphasis May) make sense integrated with solar but remember these projects were designed in NJ as they have additional credits beyond the 30% federal credit.
    22 Aug 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • benjers
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    The return-on-investment of the first system was estimated at 5 years. That's still a good IRR, and the project has other tangible benefits besides.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gj0Soa
    22 Aug 2014, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    I don't disagree that it looks good.

     

    Its also a very different project than Patrick proposed above of pure FR battery cube. You'll also have to excuse one as the $1.5M project cost is very vague and it probably doesn't include the cost of land.

     

    I think AXPW has a market but if teh IRR was that good then AXPW should be raising funds from Wall Street and do it themselves. Expert or not if one believes those returns are correct than you should tell no one and build, build, build.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    The discount rate is the rate that the purchaser would pay to finance the project, not Axion. It is not attractive to Axion because they cannot finance at 3.125% but they can sure as heck use some solid sales for cash.
    22 Aug 2014, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty>The IRR quoted in that letter of 20.2% is not so far off from 28%. I would say in the same ballpark.
    22 Aug 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    The major savings of that project is the Credits upfront. If you really believe your IRR of 28% then you should buy a powercube.
    22 Aug 2014, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Mrholty
    For a existing property owner who is looking to install a solar system on his property, he will not add the land cost in his calculation. This also apply for the power company.

     

    For an Independent Power Producer, the land cost will be included in his calculation.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I believe a key, perhaps THE key, to the 'PC fixed-income stream investors program' will be the certainty of the revenue stream to the project over its 20 year life. I'm not an expert on project/securitized financings for related assets such as renewables, but I think a key enabler was the high probability of reliable income thru feed-in tariffs, for example.

     

    I don't see how this structure/approach works without that.

     

    Otherwise, how does a fixed-income investor get comfortable with the reliability of a project's income for such a new asset class? Increased supply could drive down FR compensation dramatically, for example.

     

    I'd love to see an offering document for one of these proposed FR deals---if there is one yet. Wonder if Maxim has one available.
    25 Aug 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    You have to have a viable competitor FR resource to drive down the costs. On the basis of today's pricing, there isn't a lot of room for high-falutin' and higher priced resources.

     

    So "dramatically" is being overly dramatic.

     

    Who would be Axion's closest competitor in your estimation?
    25 Aug 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    Who would be Axion's closest competitor in your estimation?

     

    Shorter dispatch intervals perhaps

     

    http://bit.ly/VOCQOM

     

    see figures 2-6,7, 8 and 2-9 beginning on page 15.
    25 Aug 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Broadly speaking, the more uncertain an asset's revenue stream, the more its financing mix shifts to equity.

     

    I could easily have missed it, but I have yet to read about long-term FR rate agreements. I would like to know how the potential fixed income revenue stream investors are getting comfortable, if they are, with the asset's revenue stream.
    26 Aug 2014, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • benjers
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Check out the May 14, 2014 press release. They said clearly that they were planning on participating in Hawaii and CA.
    22 Aug 2014, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • benjers
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/1wi2OLA
    22 Aug 2014, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    TÜV SÜD certificates renewable energy battery storage systems

     

    http://bit.ly/1oi5f70
    22 Aug 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    I also note that the most recent decline in price from $0.13 to $0.09 began on July 24, which is a FINRA short interest reporting due date.

     

    The new terms with Mr. Averill and the PIPE came August 4 (a Monday), which put a bottom in at $0.086.

     

    This leads me to believe that John Petersen is correct in stating that the FINRA data is informative about the direction of the stock price going forward and that the PIPE was to blame for the beaten down price and that the most recent changes to the warrants are to tie their hands until the skies clear.
    22 Aug 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    PY> The warrants that were exchanged for shares, 17M for 29M, posed no threat to pressure the stock as their strike price was $.30. Converting 17M warrants (which if exercised at some future date would have put over $5M into Axion's coffers at the cost of only 17M shares), for 29M shares generating zero cash was a horrific deal for us. We give up everything to get nothing. I expect it was done to appease the underwriter/new financiers.

     

    Every new equity deal it seems the new players get a field day to beat the crap out of the legacy owners while giving next to nothing in return. There oughtta be a law ...
    22 Aug 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    RA, the .302 warrants would have re-adjusted to whatever the next offering price is. The PIPErs liked the deal as it means they don't have to pony up cash, even for cheaper shares. The new investors like it as they don't limit upside this way.
    22 Aug 2014, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, RA, if I understood correctly, not only the strike of warrants would have been lowered, but their number would have been increased.

     

    Example: assume the new offering goes for 8c / share. Then one warrant at 30.2c becomes 30.2 / 8 = 3.775 warrants at 8c. Or 17M warrants become 64.175M warrants at 8c with total freedom to do savage things.

     

    How does the 29M shares deal with a tight leash look now?
    22 Aug 2014, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    RA> The warrants posed a huge threat, which is why they were exchanged.

     

    Under the warrant agreement, the strike price would automatically reset to the next offering price the case of a subsequent financing at a price lower than $0.302.

     

    To add insult to injury, the warrant agreement also provided that in the event of a price reset the number of shares issuable upon exercise would increase proportionally.

     

    When you put the two together, the 17 million warrants exercisable at $.30 would have magically morphed into 52 million warrants exercisable at $.10.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Basically the last financial raise was a crap sandwich that could have been dealt with in a more favorable fashion had Axion gotten some of the business eluded to. That was the hope many talked about. As it turned out we had to eat the whole thing. Yum.

     

    Seconds on the way? The hope is not but Axion never ceases to amaze.
    22 Aug 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    ii, there are several obvious things at work here:

     

    1) Axion needs cash and someone will take advantage of the situation; that someone can be yourself if you prefer to act instead of complaining

     

    2) Nobody likes dilution and price erosion on top of it; but we all contribute to that with bids of $0.0001 above the other guy, if that; this continues even today, when many clouds have disappeared

     

    3) Anyone had one year opportunity of loading up the truck at bargain prices, just slightly above the PIPEr's deal, how many have done that?

     

    4) John has explained many times this is not an ordinary deal, we are getting out of the ghetto; there are always risks, of course; but if you hate risk, why are you invested in an OTC traded barely out of R&D business instead of a pension fund or index tracking instrument?
    22 Aug 2014, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Nicu, We never had the opportunity to enjoy an investment opportunity with a comparable assigned risk as enjoyed by the PIPErs. I suggest you run the math again and think about the manner in which they were allowed to cash out of their investment. It's not as you suggest. Not even close.

     

    Although my critique of Axion's prior CEO and marketing efforts can at times be crude, I'm capable of judging for myself their performance since Axion transitioned into a commercial entity. Since I feel the primary job of the CEO is to deliver on communicated objectives and raise the necessary funds to do so at reasonable terms I'll stand by my grade assigned to the prior CEO. I hope his replacement stands in stark contrast to his predecessors efforts in these two areas. As for marketing. Given they are primarily looking to sell into heavy industrial maybe it is what it is.
    22 Aug 2014, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Nicu: "with bids of $0.0001 above the other guy"

     

    I suspect this is *not* "us". It's almost always ATDF, and recently NITE. I think ATDF is a "bot" trading program and NITE just started doing this the last few weeks, usual just competing with ATDF. NITE *could* be a "bot" or someone trying to just keep up with what ATDF does, maybe forcing ATDF to withdraw for short periods, which has happened off and on.

     

    Of course, I don't *know*, but I watch the action as closely as possible and these are the conclusions I've drawn.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Aug 2014, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    If we haven't tried to fry the PIPErs by buying lower and lower their initial shares they payed 26c for, they would have never had the opportunity to get so many shares over the following months. Moreover, had the price held above 20c all this time, their warrants would have diluted by only 17M while Axion could have pocketed another $5M at some point, with no real leverage in negotiations to exchange them for lower risk and better pay.

     

    We tried to sneak behind them thinking we are smarter. And they lit up a 100 kW stadium light in our face and then fired the bazookas towards the paralysed victims.

     

    I am not criticising or complaining about Axion or their investors. The past is what it is, and yes, if we do not learn from history, we are bound to repeat the mistakes.

     

    I'm only criticising the endless complains with no action.
    22 Aug 2014, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    "Nicu, We never had the opportunity to enjoy an investment opportunity with a comparable assigned risk as enjoyed by the PIPErs"

     

    The deal that Axion is offering early next month is even better. You get a warrant for every share, not 17M for two to six times that many shares. Are you going put some shekels in?
    22 Aug 2014, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I had worse times than today w.r.t. cash and believed in Axion all the time. So I am too among the bottom feeders I am talking about. I have spend most of the time on margin, paying 8% interest on it so I could increase my AXPW position over the last year (by a nice factor finally, btw - so because I took the crisis as an opportunity, I will not complain about dilution).

     

    Like everybody, I felt powerless in front of the avalanche of cheap PIPE shares and tried to improve my own situation given the circumstances. As I said, I am not pointing my finger around. The market is a harsh place and if you do not cover your back, nobody will.

     

    Just trying to understand what happened and what can be done to avoid a repeat. Yes, if you wonder, I am scrambling to arrange so that I can participate in the offering.
    22 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (575) | Send Message
     
    " think ATDF is a "bot" trading program "

     

    ATDF is a large trading desk that handles millions of orders a day. I know my orders through TD Canada get routed through ATDF.
    22 Aug 2014, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP, when you factor in all the 2013 warrants and the PIPE allotments what is/was the effective price (and discount) of the 2013 offering had it been a straight deal?

     

    Would a 50% discount to market and a doubling of shares have been better than the reaming Axion took when all is said and done as we head into this share cleanup RS?

     

    I'd think even the above mentioned terms would have left Axion with a pps near double where its at now?

     

    >>
    ""Under the warrant agreement, the strike price would automatically reset to the next offering price the case of a subsequent financing at a price lower than $0.302.

     

    To add insult to injury, the warrant agreement also provided that in the event of a price reset the number of shares issuable upon exercise would increase proportionally.""
    23 Aug 2014, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A 50% discount to market would have been better in a lot of ways, but the brutalization is now history and there's nothing to do but learn what we can and from the experience and move forward.

     

    The situation Axion is facing today has nothing in common with the situation it faced last year. PIPEs and underwritten public offerings have nothing in common except a big check at the end of the process. One is fraught with risk while the other is a great opportunity. I won't let the memory of last year's beating keep me from recognizing this years party.

     

    History only repeats itself for those who do not learn from it.
    23 Aug 2014, 05:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Futurescarla: I know they are big and handle a lot of volume. I just came to conclude that the MM function they provide has algorithmic bots that put those bids and offers out there.

     

    Of course I guess that thousands of individual traders could be consistently doing 1/100th penny step changes all day long.

     

    And I guess when NITE comes in and matches the offer some of those thousands could immediately drop the offer 1/100th of a penny, often 30, 40, 50 consecutive steps with no change on the other side.

     

    Day after day, consistent as clockwork.

     

    It's just not the conclusion I would draw. Compare to NITE, CDEL and other large MMs. You don't see that behavior from them, except that the last few weeks NITE seems to have started trying to match ATDF on the offers like that.

     

    What would support it being predominately human driven is the somewhat infrequent occurrences of ATDF fighting with itself. It usually doesn't last long though.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Aug 2014, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (575) | Send Message
     
    ahh I see what you mean, someone is using a bot through ATDF. That's definitely possible, the way you originally worded it, I thought you meant ATDF itself was a bot, my mistake.
    23 Aug 2014, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Why is Axion's position so different this year? Was it really that dire last Summer? Is there reasons why the RS and uplist could not have happened then?
    23 Aug 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Last year the best Axion could do, for whatever reason, was the PIPE transaction that we all remember so fondly.

     

    This year, for whatever reason, Axion was able to pull together a full underwritten public offering.

     

    The former is at the bottom of the corporate finance food chain for public companies and the latter is at the top of the food chain.

     

    I did not participate in the structuring or execution of either project and have no idea what makes this year different from last year. But I know the deal that is being done now is a world apart from what went before.

     

    I understand the overwhelming fear that we're in for another beating, but beatings like we've had before don't happen in underwritten public deals.
    23 Aug 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    The promise of significant sales, no doubt!
    23 Aug 2014, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's probably more accurate to speak in terms of a more visible path to sustainable revenue growth.

     

    I want to vomit when commenters use the term "significant sales" as if it were some sort of healing mantra or magical incantation. Most of the marketing ideas I see bandied about go haring off on tangents that aren't big enough to move the needle or reliable enough to matter.

     

    You can't generate $8 to $10 million in quarterly revenue pandering to hobbyists.

     

    For Axion to build a thriving business it needs to have regular, reliable and growing revenue from the sale of products to credible repeat customers who have big enough demand to move the needle and keep it moved.
    23 Aug 2014, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, I'm having a hard time understanding the meaning of the second paragraph in your statement. I surely can understand why investors should have been looking for "significant sales" given TG indicated he was looking for them and they were not received. Don't know how this all ties into the fact that some, including myself, pointed out other markets that PbC technology might have grown into that were lesser markets than the big game being hunted. Heck, who would have thought PLUG would get a decent boost from by selling storage systems for overpriced fork trucks. As it turns out sometimes small amounts of success bred more of the same.
    23 Aug 2014, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Oops, "breed".
    23 Aug 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Sales can be significant in amount yet meaningless in the context of a going concern.

     

    Everybody complained that the $320,000 sale to BySolar wasn't significant. They dismissed both the sale and the $1.2 million in follow-on orders without considering the nature of the relationship. BySolar didn't stop after one installation and unless there's a product failure it's a damned good bet they won't stop at five installations either. It's the kind of relationship that can be expected to grow and flourish over time as long as the PbC does what Axion says it will do. The customer is small, but it's a credible repeat customer.

     

    Contrast that with a hypothetical sale of a $3 million system for Joe Gotrocks private island that will never be repeated. The hypothetical sale would surely have met everybody's definition of significant, but it would have been meaningless in the context of growing a business.

     

    If revenue isn't going to be recurring and in large enough numbers to move the needle, it doesn't matter.

     

    PLUG is selling "selling storage systems for overpriced fork trucks" to WalMart, a first tier fork truck user that completed its first trial of PLUG's fuel cells in 2006. – http://bit.ly/1luy5CC

     

    When you look at how long it took PLUG to move the WalMart relationship from evaluation to implementation, Axion's progress with BMW, NS and others doesn't look all that bad.

     

    The market doesn't respond to the amount of revenue. It responds to revenue quality and sales to hobbyists and other nickel and dime players are never viewed as quality revenue.

     

    If you expect the stock market to take notice, big game is the only game.
    23 Aug 2014, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Axion needed revenues to keep from having to print massive amounts of shares to keep the doors open. Maybe in-"significant" PbC sales could have kept it from ballooning to well over 200M shares. Wall Street might not have cared about one off sales but it's better than begging on the street corner for equity. Hopefully those days are over but some of us don't feel as rosey about the past as you seem.
    23 Aug 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Until the income statement shows a consistent gross profit on sales, increasing revenue can only increase losses. That means more sales during the development stage would have made matters worse, not better.

     

    I'm neither rosey nor resentful about the past. I merely accept it as immutable fact. I know that nobody else has my kind of checkered life story, but there are hundreds of things that I'd do differently if I had them all to do over again. Unfortunatetly life has never given me a do over.

     

    Once upon a time I expected a 50:1 return on my Axion investment. Things took longer and cost more than I expected. Everything really went to hell in 2008. There was nothing in the first 30 years of my career that could have prepared me for the brutality of the last five. So I've had to lower my sights by an order of magnitude if I insist on thinking in terms of my starting point.

     

    It's part and parcel of the game. If you step up to the plate with a bat in your hand you will eventually get hit by a bean ball. If you jump horses for fun you will eventually get thrown. Complaining about past bad luck doesn't change anything.

     

    Today my investment decision is simple. Do I take $.09 and call it a day or do I leave $.09 where it is with the expectation of a 50:1 return on the $.09 I could get for sure?

     

    I think everybody knows the answer to that question.
    23 Aug 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    I agree that Axion should not have done one-off loss producing Sales of the PbC. But there seems to be commentary that Axion could have done more 6 and 7 figure type small profitable deals. A half dozen of those and Axion's burn rate could have been cut in half. Yes, I like the risk / reward from the current penney level. But I still, like others have said on this forum, would like some candid commentary about what the status of the oems are and what's the reason Axion didn't to more in the interim to avoid massive share printing. I don't fear the next placement and I'm somewhat happy about the change in management. But I do hope that communication from Axion gets much better as we approach the next half of this decade.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, understand your points. However even big game hunters are happy to shoot a Dik-dik or a Puku during their trip to keep their tin plate full on occasion making sure they don't expire only having tales of the big one that never was. Also, I don't recall anyone indicating the Bysolar contract was not a good chunk of business. And TG did come out and say that it was not one of the potential contracts that he had assigned to the anticipated "significant sales" category. So unfortunately he left everyone with unrealized hopes which is never positive after you build some level of confidence that boiled grass will n not be filling the tin plate. Alas stockholders, like customers, need to be managed as well at some level. They are the ones that sponsor the expedition.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> Everybody was upset that Axion somehow screwed up the relationship with Rosewater. The reason was simple and I heard it directly from Joe Pic. Rosewater wanted Axion to price the PbC based on anticipated future costs after processes were optimized and economies of scale obtained. In short Rosewater wanted Axion to build for a dime, sell for a nickel and make it up on volume. Axion decided that no sales and small losses were better than bigger sales and bigger losses.

     

    I have not seen one suggestion that Axion could have profitably sold batteries to anybody until very recently. It might have been able to generate 6 or 7 digit sales, but they would have only increased the losses.

     

    I would love more candid and transparent commentary on the status of Axion's relationships with the elephant herd. Based on my experience with elephants it's a miracle that we even know those relationships with the thundering herd exist. Most small companies can't disclose more than something vague like "stop-start initiative with diesel engine manufacturer."

     

    These big companies don't screw around and they don't let nano-caps pre-release information on their proprietary product development projects for the sole purpose of hyping a stock price. That kind of crap works with junior resource companies but it doesn't cut it with first tier manufacturers.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Are you aware of BySolar taking delivery of anything beyond their first PowerCube purchase?

     

    I am not.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Given Axion's current size, I think that second delivery to BySolar would be a mandatory news event even with a pending registration statement.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    With you in some respects and not in others, John. ANY unquestionably commercial sale would be 'significant' at this point in time. It would lend support to perception of a viable, long-term market for PbC batteries and influence share price positively.

     

    We part company on "... credible repeat customers who have big enough demand to move the needle and keep it moved." That phrasing limits PbC market horizon to large oligopolistic and monopolistic enterprises dominating large markets, walling off small-to-medium size enterprises (SMEs) from participation. Individual SME purchases alone today would "move the needle" but not "keep it moved" over time. But, the SME population substantially exceeds the numbers of large firms dominating large markets; numbers of SME buyers would grow. Aggregated sales to SMES could "move the needle and keep it moved."

     

    After all, the technology under development at ePower Engine Systems has potential to 'move the needle". From my perspective ePower would fall somewhere between 'hobbyist' and small enterprise at the time of its first PbC purchases. UIM, entrepreneurial 'hobbyist' and established SMEs as a group are more incentivized and consistently prove more adept at commercializing new technologies than established bureaucratically encumbered obligopolies and monopolies.

     

    It is past time for you to move beyond intimating that marketing of PbCs to a wider range of prospective buyers would be/is "pandering to hobbyists."
    23 Aug 2014, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Does BySolar qualify as "big game" and if so on what basis?

     

    I am not opposed to any variety of "game" at this stage of Axion's sales growth and I am not trying to downplay the importance of the BySolar sales.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    "It is past time for you to move beyond intimating that marketing of PbCs to a wider range of prospective buyers would be/is "pandering to hobbyists."

     

    I agree and I think that it may be possible to do so without placing an overload on Axion's engineering staff as John suggests.
    23 Aug 2014, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    "I have not seen one suggestion that Axion could have profitably sold batteries to anybody until very recently. It might have been able to generate 6 or 7 digit sales, but they would have only increased the losses."

     

    Any PbC sales with a postive gross margin (price > cost of goods sold) would have reduced losses. Axion has excess battery assembly capacity as well as excess carbon sheeting and electrode assembly capacity.
    23 Aug 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't see BySolar or ePower as big game by any stretch of the imagination. But I think both can be credible repeat customers with big enough needs to move the needle and keep it moved. With extra special good luck, both could become far larger in the future.

     

    I don't know what you envision as potential short term low support markets for the PbC, but I know that small customers like ePower can demand far more support than our current business is worth to Axion.
    23 Aug 2014, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    "I think that it may be possible to do so without placing an overload on Axion's engineering staff as John suggests. "

     

    I agree and don't think it would be difficult to do so.
    23 Aug 2014, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    "Any PbC sales with a positive gross margin (price > cost of goods sold) would have reduced losses."

     

    Again we agree, even a slight loss early on when cost reduction is a certainty would fall into the category of "marketing" expense. That was Joe Pic's point and one that Axion should have listened to since they were the marketing experts and then Axion should have agreed to sell the Hub electronics etc to Rosewater at a loss (discount) but still sell the PbC batteries to them at a reasonable profit.

     

    But this is history that can't be changed and who knows, perhaps Rosewater may have failed to generate sales with or without the price adjustment - we will never know.
    23 Aug 2014, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I sincerely hope both of you are right, because there's nothing I'd like to see more than meaningful sales to customers who don't require the level of support and hand-holding companies like ePower need. Since I don't work for a customer like that my experience base and point of view are, by nature, fairly narrow.
    23 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    You forgot to mention "proof of concept" worth of the one off orders. People needed to know it worked.
    23 Aug 2014, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Averill,

     

    Did you voice these concerns to the board in the past? Was there much internal debate? Many of us wondered why Axion and Rosewater couldn't play nice. l suspect there were other opportunities as well.
    23 Aug 2014, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    The discussion about sales missteps or not seems to pigeonhole into the categories "big game" (OEMs), smaller game (distributors like Bysolar), and hobbyists or tiny game who we know have been discouraged or downright denied batteries by Axion. While it's uncertain whether small one-off sales would have helped Axion's bottom line (after marketing and support costs) it's worth noting that many successful businesses do sell only products that are nonrepeatable one sale per customer for small sums.

     

    However I think an important category is being forgotten: Axion's own branded product using PbC within. Long ago I thought Axion missed the boat by not fast-laning development/marketing of a truck and RV APC unit. A product that is just a few batteries plus wiring would be easy to develop and then go straight to market wholesale and/or retail. Apparently the glacial pace on this initiative is Axion's fault as who else could be blamed?

     

    Last time I checked it's a lot easier to sell something at $1000-$2000 than something for $100,000 to $100,000,000(BMW order). We've been told that Axion is not just fishing for whales but when you look around the boat and see very little but harpoons ...
    24 Aug 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3548) | Send Message
     
    Hi RA,
    APUs for trucks is what I was doing research for when I ran into AXION. I also think they would be a niche product, but even a niche product sale combined with others would add up.
    24 Aug 2014, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    In any event, there would have been more PCs out in the field generating data.
    24 Aug 2014, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed> Yes. Others here like RBrun also have indicated there is a huge niche to fill for portable power storage for RVs. When camping one could run the generator just long enough to charge a set of PbCs (fast charge; high DCA) then run your stuff off the PbCs for several hours or more while being able to turn the noisy stinky generator off.

     

    It's a PSOC, fast charge application for RVs or truck APUs; right in the PbCs sweet spot. RBrun indicates that RVers are unhappy with the APUs available now (lead acid?) so the addressable market seems quite large to me. Further, getting buzz in the RV community would bring in retail investors (RVers tend to have some money) to support the stock price more.
    24 Aug 2014, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Had another power outage today (Wrath of God kinda stuff) which lasted several hours... not long enough to want to mess with the generator... But sure would be nice to have a few hours' ride through with a home battery bank.. Continue to believe that someday, if prices come down and useful life is north of 10 years, that there will be a role for PbC in the home storage market...
    24 Aug 2014, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    481> The New Castle home prototype install suggests Axion is looking seriously at the home market. When paired with a renewable power source such as PV I think the PbC looks particularly attractive. To store only grid power for the occasional outage may not be economic enough for some people since they have to pay for the grid power they are storing.
    24 Aug 2014, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    48, Absolutely! Generators are noisy and inconvenient. A few batteries would increase comfort, and reduce fuel. It seems crazy to run a generator late at night just to keep the night lights on in the bathroom.
    25 Aug 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    RA - The New Castle sale was just getting rid of the Rosewater demo unit, not an expression of interest in the home market. 48's comment was about the high value application for on-grid houses with emergency generators, not solar per se. However, if an Axion battery pack/inverter was sold with a miniscule solar panel, the whole shebang becomes eligible for the 30% federal tax credit.

     

    Someone now may rant again about the non-elephant status... http://on.wsj.com/1qbNw57 ... yeah, right.
    25 Aug 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    I suggested a while ago that Axion should approach SolarCity or other home solar installers and try work out some sort of partnership that would increase its presence in the domestic, distributed storage.

     

    Someone else thinks this is a sensible strategy? If not then please explain why.

     

    Thank you
    A
    25 Aug 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    When you had your interaction with Axion did you get to meet, Vlad Vichnyakov, PhD?

     

    He now has a consulting agreement with Axion but he is also accepting other clients as well. His Linked-in profile reads: "Independent Consultant. Grid-connected battery energy storage systems development, integration and management"

     

    Vlad has a very broad and deep understanding of everything about the PbC technology and in my telephone conversation with him today he expressed a willingness to discuss potential new uses of the PbC battery with anyone seeking an eminently qualified and professional opinion as to the suitability of PbC technology to their needs.

     

    What do you think of this new opportunity for 'Hobbyists' and established companies alike to explore the possible uses of the PbC battery?
    25 Aug 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    Bob - I did not meet Vlad. He sounds very interesting.

     

    If Vlad can help introduce PbC to entrepreneurs, or as JP calls them, "hobbyists", I think that would be great for Axion.

     

    I am not aware that Axion has changed the NDA-phile, "elephants-only" policies, though. Do you think there has been change with the new CEO?

     

    I'd be happy to talk with Vlad, if he wants. I am not seeking any professional opinions, but I love brainstorming.
    25 Aug 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    I am certain that Vlad would be happy to brainstorm with you. (Vlad's English is very good but it is his second language.) You may want to introduce yourself with an email to him at vladvv@comcast.net. or just do it through Linked-in
    http://linkd.in/1sqjNot

     

    Axion knows that Vlad understands what the PbC battery can and can't do, so if Vlad went to Axion with a third party's application that he was involved with and endorsed, my bet is that Axion would be highly receptive.
    25 Aug 2014, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Rick> In my neck of the woods the electric co charges around $.14/kwh but if a homeowner generates solar for the grid they only pay a measly $.037. Quite a ripoff and unfortunately it discourages solar. However as Franklin said a penny saved is a penny earned. If during sunny times a PbC bank gets charged up that enables the homeowner to not purchase grid power during a passing storm or for a couple hours in the evening after a sunny day, the opportunity savings comes in at $.14 kwh.

     

    So I'm hopeful that battery storage with residential PVs makes economic sense in many places, especially if increasing the number of panels to keep the batteries juiced up. Certainly where grid power is very expensive residential battery storage is viable. The New Castle demo will hopefully provide positive data supporting that which can be used for marketing.
    25 Aug 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Bob: I'll verify you on your comment about "Pic's point." That's similar to what I had heard.

     

    FYI, Rosewater has yet to sell a Hub. They are working on making it easier to service and install, and expect to bring the Hub to market next spring, along with other energy efficient products.

     

    Of course, given the past, I highly doubt there will be Axion inside, unless a customer insists the Hub be built with PbCs.
    25 Aug 2014, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    RA - I think you ought to be glad that the rate payers are not being screwed by solar enthusiasts. Definitely not a ripoff. Grid-connected solar is as bad economics (and not green) as ethanol for motor fuel for disgusting taxpayer ripoffs.

     

    Off-grid power (such as houses, RVs, remote telecom, and boats) and backup power (which is basically temporary off-grid) are where the really high value is. Often the total cost is well over a $1/kwh.
    25 Aug 2014, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Rick> When you look at all-in cost present and future, solar kicks a** and must be encouraged. I happen to believe that it is important to have a national energy policy that sets a wise course for the benefit of future generations.

     

    That means treating non renewable fossil fuels as precious, yes even coal, and favoring clean renewable energy like solar as a point of national policy. Fossil fuels are not nearly as cheap as they seem due to carbon emissions affecting climate and other pollutants (acid rain damage, lung damage) as well as problems related to things like strip mining (harming ecosystems and water supplies). Solar on the other hand is perfectly clean in every way.
    25 Aug 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    RA- Isn't the $.14 charge a mix of Generation and Transmission/Distribut... At my house the split is roughly equal.

     

    We have the same deal for selling solar/wind etc back to the grid. The only thing that may push it back up is a state requirement to buy X% of electric from renewables. My understanding is that when they determine that # say 20% they estimate the demand needed in MW and take .2 of it to determine what they need to buy. I also understand a windmill effective output is only 28 % of it stated capacity so a 10MW wind only really provides 2.8MW of power. Its all a game.
    25 Aug 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    mrh> I haven't seen the charges broken out that way so I don't know how they come up with $.14/kwh. I know the PSC has to approve increases.

     

    They way I look at it is: suppose demand is 1.1 MW but users are generating for the grid .1 MW of solar at a point in time. The utility can theoretically turn off around .1 MW of generation, saving them that cost. The lion's share of that saved cost should in my view be paid to the user/generators as they are essentially performing the same service as the utility. They should therefore be paid the same as the utility. To what degree fixed non fuel costs should be deducted is the sticky point and subject to debate.

     

    Aside from my advocacy of solar as policy, I take the old fashioned view that utilities were granted monopolies to fulfill a basic necessity as a public service much more than as a way for somebody to make money. I have no problem with them being privately run in most cases but since they have monopolies and therefore sole market power then government has to hold the trump cards and regulate. Therefore I think due to the relatively predictable profit stream for things like electricity and water that profit margins should not be high nor profits grow at high rates. (And I say this as an owner of utility stocks from time to time.)

     

    Buying my solar excess for $.037 and selling it to my neighbor an instant later for $.14 strikes me as an outrageous margin. There is no direct, variable cost for the utility for that transaction to justify taking any chunk let alone the lion's share. The worst part is that this rate system just discourages solar, like if the EPA had never made auto mpg standards more stringent over time but kept them very loose there would be a lot more V8's running around in one occupant vehicles today. Not good.
    25 Aug 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    R.A. ... Looking at the breakdown of charges on one's electric power bill really is needed to grasp the range of issues PSCs must address in evaluating rate proposals and just what it is consumers pay for power versus other things.

     

    If you live in a metro area within the contiguous 48 U.S., chances are you are actually paying much less than $.14kWh for power used. And consumers that do not have solar or wind power are paying higher non-power charges than they would without the requirement for your power distribution company to purchase excess power you and others like yourself generate.

     

    My power costs last month on the BGE distribution system in central Maryland compute as $.1462 kWh with actual power costs constituting less than 62% of the total. Account maintenance and power distribution charges accounted for ~$.0355 kWh. A bit over 14% of the bill consisted of direct and indirect state and local government taxes and fees. By indirect taxes I mean charges assessed electric power users to fund subsidies disbursed through BGE to individuals and businesses, to reimburse BGE for its "carbon credit" purchases, and to finance BGE installation of equipment needed to meter power supplied from solar panels, wind power generators, etc. BGE disbursed subsidies include liquidation of bad debts for power supplied (presumably to low income families), rebates on purchases of energy efficient appliances, household energy audits, heating/cooling systems, etc.

     

    :-) You object to getting just $.037 kWh for surplus solar power your installation generates. I resent hell out of the extra 14% I am charged every month to support the crony capitalist nanny-state programs that encumber our economy.

     

    25 Aug 2014, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv - Amen, bro!
    26 Aug 2014, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    ""I have no problem with them being privately run..."

     

    If utilities were government-run, they would cost a lot more. A whole lot, I imagine. For a whole lot less service. Tons of perks and pensions, waste and pork, outages and inefficiencies. Every year or so there would be a crisis that they would HAVE to raise taxes to fix. Same old song, next verse.
    26 Aug 2014, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... Here is Texas the cheapest electricity is publicly owned by cities and counties regulated by the state board. The next cheapest electricity is privately owned but regulated by the state board. These are more rural suchas Co-Ops which might buy bulk or generate their own electricity. The most (ever increasingly) expensive electricity is privately owned and unregulated to the maximum allowed. This is mostly the major metro triangle of DFW to Houston to SA as well as most of the state grid.

     

    Going private and deregulating has, some would say, lowered service but it has definitely driven up prices. A lot of this is attributable to profit and a lot is attributable to more middlemen (corporate bureaucracy) suchas energy wholesalers, brokers, traders, banks et al.

     

    California is another place that has suffered mightily from the efficiency of privately run, deregulated utilities. I don't particularly mind private ownership but do think it a bad idea for public utilities & infrastructure. I firmly believe in public regulation of required infrastructure.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Profit equals salary.

     

    Which is one reason why I vote against all business taxation. Businesses have no representation so they screwed every which way and they have to charge we the people more for their products (35% corporate rate, utilities included, I imagine though perhaps they have their own special sits). Businesses can't pay their employees as much because the government has first dibs on the corporate income.

     

    I will never agree that the government can do anything better than the people can do it for themselves. Don't even try to go there with me.

     

    Texas is perhaps not like most. At least that's what the liberals tell us: "Evil Texans are pro business and anti immigrant". Yeah, not like most.

     

    The most unregulated entity is the government. No limits in sight. Taxes constantly increasing and they will not stop doing so. Ever.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    Edmund> Typically the smaller cities and rural areas here in Wisconsin have publicly run electricity and water. Your prediction can thus be tested and I'm afraid it fails as their prices are low, service is good, and your pork is absent.

     

    Your error is what happens when thinking starts with ideological conclusion and works backward from there to fill in the "facts". American's favorite pastime seems to no longer be baseball or apple pie but the bashing of government at all levels.

     

    America will never be pure "sink or swim" capitalist nor will it be "share and share alike" socialist. It will always be capitalistic and liberty based but with many necessary government dictates that impinge liberty (I must be a communist because when the government demands that we drive on the right side of the road I think it is good!)

     

    The beloved free markets do fail when there is monopoly of a basic necessity. Absent competition and with a PSC approving all rate increases the invisible hand becomes degraded to a "cost plus profit" paradigm which is bad for the consumer and fails to keep things in check the way the invisible hand does in competitive markets. IOW, if I am the utility and I know the PSC will approve rates that are my costs plus 10% profit, then I actually want the highest cost possible. Instead of bare bones cargo vans for my crews I want the most expensive fully loaded vans because for every $1 in cost I get $1.10 back. It's perverted to 'the more we spend the more we profit' so it becomes a cat and mouse game of trying to convince the PSC that costs are reasonable when the incentive exists to pad them.
    26 Aug 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    EM: "... Businesses have no representation so they screwed every which way ..."

     

    I presume you ignore the multi-millions spent on lobbyists that effectively write, to a very large degree, the laws and regulations and, very importantly, tax exemptions that benefit the corporations to the detriment of the "little guy".

     

    A very small example even at the local levels was the various state mild boards. As we move of the food change the abuses become more egregious.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    P.S. Citizens United SCOTUS ruling granted "representation" through the electoral process via the large sums of campaign and advertising dollars available to sway the electorate while the "little guy" has a lack of unbiased information and only a single ballot to cast.
    26 Aug 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    I'm against all business taxation. Period. It's just another way for the government to bend over the little guy for his money.

     

    Lobbyists and campaign monies are not representation, perhaps a poor attempt at it. The kickbacks, insider info, etc that senators and representatives get from businesses (and their friends) are created by their tax policies - big surprise! It's all yet another way to screw the small guy, who doesn't have the money to protect himself from the government vultures and can't count on being properly represented anymore.

     

    I want less of this crap, not more. And there's only way to get there: Cut off the money supply to the cronies and the crony-makers. Iron-clad limits on their budgets, an alternative MAXIMUM tax, any limit whatsoever. Right now we're buck naked and bent over waiting for the next shoe.
    26 Aug 2014, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Those interested can dream up all the counter-data they want to my supposedly ideological argument. Unfortunately, the real important data comes every two weeks and every time it proves me right.

     

    What right does anyone have to vote for policies that deprive the average citizen of more than half his earnings? It's unseemly. It's tyrannical. Sure that's what the ruling class is doing all over the world, so why should America be any different? Because that's exactly how America was supposed to be different. Got any idea where it's all headed? Or even when taxes will stop going up?

     

    I argue for limits. Just limits. Seeing none, I remain at post.
    26 Aug 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, you radical SOB. <End Snark>
    26 Aug 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "I'm against all business taxation. Period."

     

    Businesses pay no tax on profits unless they have voluntarily chosen the corporate form, i.e. to become "a person" or corpus, for legal purposes. You're howling at the moon.
    26 Aug 2014, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "Or even when taxes will stop going up?"

     

    ??? Income tax rates peaked during Eisenhower (top bracket 93%) and have come down, down, down since then (top bracket now 39.6%). Fact.

     

    "policies that deprive the average citizen of more than half his earnings"

     

    I'm sure you don't pay over 50% of your total income. With the top bracket federal of 39.6% it's nigh impossible due to the portion of your income that is exempt or taxed at the lower rates, unless you earn millions and your State rate is effectively at least 11%.

     

    BTW, FICA does NOT count as a "tax" upon you that funds government. It is a forced personal savings account for you and your family. It ensures income for your family upon your disability or retirement. Social Security is one of the most popular and efficient federal programs ever. A dire need for such a program was proven when retirees in the 1930's who had lost their savings in the crash lived their final years in poverty. Back then poverty often meant a dirt floor shack in the woods.

     

    Your Social Security benefits will be in direct proportion to your contributions, subject to limits, so FICA is not a tax on you. (When one day those Social Security checks start coming perhaps you'll understand then.)
    26 Aug 2014, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    I consider myself a centrist, iindelco. I don't care for either side of the aisle. Obama is arguably the worst president ever, having spent most of his term copying arguably the next worst, Bush. Both unparalleled spendthrifts.
    <end OT commentary>

     

    But thanks for the compliment. :)
    26 Aug 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    Hey guys - Let's try to keep the politics out of this forum. There are lots of other places to rant about the government and politicians. Nobody's politics are going to change with dialogue here. Thanks.
    26 Aug 2014, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Anyone painting the tape today?
    26 Aug 2014, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    There was a buy at the offer of $0.0888 of 5K at 15:59:33.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    I won't wax political at any length, but in fairness if somebody is considering that "Obama is arguably the worst president ever" it's worth looking at his flagship program, the ACA. Here's a well thought out European's perspective well supported by facts and figures: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    As far as 2 poorly thought out expensive wars that have dragged on and a terrible economy that forces big deficits, did he not inherit those messes?

     

    I'd call him a good President though not great. Certainly far, far from "the worst" of 44. He is the blackest though and I suspect that bothers some people who will ding him for it no matter what he does.
    26 Aug 2014, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Averill
    , contributor
    Comments (590) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    I am shocked that after my telling this board they have a direct link to a top technical guy like Vlad, the conversation decays into this useless political crap.

     

    Wow!
    26 Aug 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Averill,

     

    Your contributions here have been more than a breath of fresh air and I am pleased that you have chosen to continue posting despite the protracted posts of others questioning your identity.

     

    As to the postings of "useless political crap", I concur although I would change the adjective to malapropos.

     

    One other thought, I believe it was 'ThotDoc' who pointed out some time ago that one should feel free to skip over drivel and/or not acknowledge or respond to it. This has saved me much wasted time, thanks Doc.

     

    So again, thank you for your contributions, very much appreciated.

     

    geopark
    26 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes conversations in this forum turn into a stream of consciousness thing. Mercifully it doesn't happen too terribly often and when it does somebody calls foul pretty quickly.
    26 Aug 2014, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    I strongly disagree. Nothing could be more useful when communicating with other Americans than political discussion that brings to light facts that lead to more informed voters. If all Americans talked a little more with acquaintances about politics (informative, not just rants) and a little less about sports and weather we could be collectively wiser about who we send to Washington.

     

    I don't know *anybody* who is happy with Congress' performance. Blame the voters for sending too many uncompromising yahoos to Capitol hill. Judging by the kind of campaign TV ads that seem to work in winning elections I think we badly need more political discussion!

     

    Don't worry I will keep it to a minimum here on APC.
    26 Aug 2014, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    I agree we need more (informative, not just rants) but I also agree, not here. I think finding something besides rants anywhere politics is brought up, is very difficult.
    27 Aug 2014, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Here
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    I agree, HTL.

     

    This is a polite invitation to "get a room" for those who want to do some political dirty dancing.

     

    It is not appreciated here by most of the participants.
    27 Aug 2014, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    a more recent version of "Here"
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Aug 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co... is the most recent PQC.
    27 Aug 2014, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Being European (i.e. socialist seen from a US point of view) it is very interesting to read the political side tracks here. I usually enjoy it, and learn a lot.

     

    The occasional sports discussions I just simply skip.

     

    Thank you all for a diversified, but focused after all, blog.

     

    :-)
    27 Aug 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Cool Poul! Hey, did Picasso or Van Go do your avatar?

     

    27 Aug 2014, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • 212138
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Corporate taxes are really just consumer taxes packaged to make sure the ignorant masses think the gov't is making the "greedy rich" pay. That is, if the industry being taxed has competition. Non-competitive industries, such as utilities, are another way for gov't to tax the masses, ignorant as they are that the rates they are paying are often pre-taxed, taxed, and post-taxed. The message is: "Us good politicians (who are always looking for ways to buy votes from ignoramouses) are taxing these evil utilities ("evil rich guys you know") to make life more "fair" for you. It works. I guess!
    27 Aug 2014, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Someone else gets it.

     

    It seems to me that it "works" too well for those who don't (that includes politicians) - but not so good for those who do. According to the WSJ, DC is the most luxurious place to live in America if you're one of "them". Middle America: not so much.

     

    I think a reasonable adjustment would be thus: As long as you're on the dole, being supported by taxpayers, you don't have the right to vote in state or federal elections (or wherever "your" money is coming from).
    28 Aug 2014, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "Corporate taxes are really just consumer taxes packaged to make sure the ignorant masses think the gov't is making the "greedy rich" pay."

     

    Uh, no. Quite an imagination you have.

     

    The corporate tax is simply income tax levied on the legal "person" that is the corporation. There is a historical reason.

     

    Since businesses must be liable for their actions that means that business owners are thus liable, to the full extent of their personal possessions. Historically it was deemed that it was unfair in widely held companies for each owner of even just a few shares to have his net worth on the line in the event of malfeasance of management, of which he was probably not even privy.

     

    Thus the corporate form was born. A key principle of the corporate form is owner liability being limited to one's investment. Yet if there's negligence or criminal damages somebody has to pay ... but who? Thus the standing up of the legal "person" that is the corporation. That's who is liable but not the shareholders.

     

    Since the corporation is a legal person it logically has to pay income tax like any other person. That's the tradeoff or cost of enjoying the limited liability. No conspiracy, really.

     

    The legal "person" is also why double taxation is reasonable. The corporation is taxed on income and then the portion distributed to owners is taxed again at the dividend rate (currently 0%-15% max). It's actually fair. If one objects to double taxation then only invest in parterships, REITs, trusts, etc, or build your own proprietorship. There are options.

     

    Sometimes there are reasons why things are as they are. Making up conspiracy stories is counterproductive as it turns society against itself.
    28 Aug 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (3799) | Send Message
     
    Doing away with business taxes would help in a lot of ways. Too many to count. The government loses some of its power, but that's ok by me. I am hopeful that the competition amongst states to keep businesses in country will result in ever-lower corporate tax rates throughout the world. This will possibly lead to less wars, government's favorite pastime.

     

    There's nothing "fair" about taxing businesses, when those taxes are simply paid by the people - a backdoor attack on our collective back pocket.
    29 Aug 2014, 04:18 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of where one stands on the issue of fairness of taxing corporations, one has to acknowledge the competitive business disadvantage of a 39% corporate rate for large corps here in the states, which is the highest rate of any industrial country. http://cnnmon.ie/1ot2yj1

     

    It makes perfect sense for Burger King to merge with Tim Horton's so it can claim to be a Canadian corp and pay lower taxes.

     

    Fairness of taxation is a subjective judgment (and I side squarely with Ed as a libertarian), but I believe we might all agree it is perfectly "fair" for corps to act in their owners' best interests in minimizing their tax bills in whatever way the arcane govt regs and loopholes allow.

     

    As owners of Axion, we should be aware that the company is in the state with the highest corporate income tax rate of 9.99%!

     

    http://bit.ly/1llIRyt

     

    Now how do you feel about fairness of corporate taxes?
    29 Aug 2014, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4787) | Send Message
     
    "As owners of Axion, we should be aware that the company is in the state with the highest corporate income tax rate of 9.99%!"

     

    Well dang, Doc! 'Fairness' in taxation among "legal persons" would seem to require payment of federal and State EICs/negative income taxes to Axion. Have we seen any? As shareholders we should protest gov'mt bias and victimization of unprofitable corporations.
    29 Aug 2014, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    SM> It's true that America has the highest corporate tax rate but it also has the most and biggest subsidies, credits, and loopholes so that the /effective/ tax rate on most US corporations is in line with other developed countries if not lower.

     

    I did not want to get ensnared into a debate on what particular tax rates are fair which is a matter of opinion. I merely point out that the basic concept of a corporate income tax is fair, even necessary, notwithstanding the 'double taxation' which so often is attacked out of context. It's worth noting that America thrived as #1 for a very long time under far stiffer income tax rates in the past than we have today, so the "tax drag is undermining this country" argument falls flat. In fact if the higher tax rates had simply flatlined from the 1970's until today, the National debt and deficits would be FAR smaller and doomsayers wouldn't be able to blame the high debt and deficits on all the things that they don't like.

     

    Bush 43 is the only president *ever* to push major tax cuts while starting war(s). Those cuts are still in place. No mystery why deficits exploded from pre Bush levels. It's obvious given the length and expense of the wars in light of his not paying for them, combined with this weak economy.
    29 Aug 2014, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "America thrived as #1 for a very long time" --because it emerged from WWII as the lone, unrivaled, and un-ravaged colossus (The victory of which was borne of many intrinsic, but perishable, virtues).

     

    Now, that was good for a few decades of running room, but eventually complacency and stupidity worked their wicked magic on us (nothing stupidizes like success) and our competitors began to steal the march...

     

    -----
    In that vein, say, isn't Axion maybe eligible for disability?
    29 Aug 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "Doing away with business taxes would help in a lot of ways."

     

    What business taxes are you talking about??? I repeat what I said above that businesses pay *no* income tax unless they have chosen to be legally "persons". You cannot do away with what doesn't exist.

     

    "There's nothing "fair" about taxing businesses, when those taxes are simply paid by the people"

     

    All taxes are ultimately paid by the "people". What is the alternative? Animals? Plants? Totally specious argument.

     

    You can theoretically tax the producer who then passes it on as increased prices for the consumer. Or you can theoretically tax the income of the consumer, who then has less left over for purchasing goods from the producer, hurting the producer. In a holistic macro sense *it makes very little difference* as either way the tax hampers economic activity all the same.

     

    However, the hampering is only the case if the tax levying body hoards the tax. But since gov't always runs deficits, by definition it puts every taxed dollar back into the economy in the form of paying employees & contractors and procuring goods & services in the private sector.

     

    In short, your argument is utter nonsense. When government grabs money by taxing either a consumer or producer and then immediately spends it, supporting another producer, the net effect on the producers or businesses is zero. It's a wash.
    29 Aug 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    How, what on, and where gov't spends matters. If gov't taxes steel mills, takes the money and gives it to couch-jockeys who then buy mostly doritos and doobies (thereby supporting the cannabis and gruel industries), that's not a wash. That's a dumbness.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    481> I agree 100%. That is where we can only hope legislators have some wisdom, but it's a separate question from what I espouse above.

     

    It's a question I try to avoid except amongst closest pals as it is all subjective. For example, one can argue that defense spending is productive and good as it keeps us safe, or you can argue with flowers in your hair that the military is bad since it is all about killing. If the machinery of war can only kill and destroy things, is building that machinery a plus or minus for productivity? There's no clear answer.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    Disability! . . shame on you 48 (funny though). We are strong and debt free as JP is rightly fond of saying. WE WILL MAKE IT all entrepreneurial and free. And besides, word has it there is no free lunch and I have a bad feeling that if we owed the g-men, we might fondly remember the PIPERS as being quite a jolly good lot.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    America took the baton of #1 from Britain long before WWII, back in the 1800's. I agree that WWII and the aftermath (Marshall Plan) was very good for the US economy, and Bretton Woods has worked magic on the US dollar. Yet crazy high tax rates did not seem to inhibit the huge postwar boom.

     

    The US economy today is not dying or even shrinking. All the talk to that affect is puzzling. It's had positive real growth virtually every year going back forever.

     

    You can't expect a mature economy to grow at a pace of a developing economy any more than a middle aged man can grow like an adolescent. Even today US GDP *per capita* is more than quadruple that of China. Something to think about.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but remember, back in the 1800's there was no income tax... that particular bit of genius didn't spawn until 1913...

     

    Also,

     

    "Yet crazy high tax rates did not seem to inhibit the huge postwar boom."

     

    Well, how do we know? Might that huge postwar boom not have been even boomier in their absence?

     

    My thinking is that during the period in question ~1945 through 1975, the huge economic advantages we enjoyed from being virtually without global industrial and technological competitors were likely plenty more than enough to mask all kinds of bad tax policy...
    29 Aug 2014, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    Tax rates don't necessarily immediately show effect on growth. A 5% higher tax rate isn't going to cause you to be less productive. And the pork project that gets the 5% money isn't going to be right away marked down to its true value either. At some later point you see the effect, like when companies and wealthy individuals leave the country for tax reasons...
    29 Aug 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Being one of the worlds biggest and most efficient energy producers didn't hurt either. My pet theory is that the recemt resurgence in the domestic oil and gas industry may be sufficient to restore American competitiveness in spite of policies many consider misguided. The fiscal multiplier effect works wonders when you move spending from imports to GDP.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Dang! Looks like I kicked the political hornets' nest again!

     

    Sorry folks!

     

    ;-)

     

    (And RA, wisdom in legislators is an oxymoron! It disqualifies them for the job.)
    29 Aug 2014, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    def concur John... I thought about adding that in, but didn't want to muddy up my attempt at an argument...

     

    To my mind, a great many things broke across the fulcrum that was the early 70's... the embargo of 1973, and the vulnerability it laid bare, should have been much more of a wakeup call than it was...
    29 Aug 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    "And RA, wisdom in legislators is an oxymoron! It disqualifies them for the job."

     

    I would not disagree for most of them. The problem really is the voters who put them there. If a business is populated by idiots the problem is in the hiring.

     

    We need to engender a sense of voter responsibility to be much more informed or else actually *stay away* from the polls. Here is US senator Mark Pryor admitting he is not smart (which is not smart in and of itself): http://bit.ly/1wQ3JmF
    29 Aug 2014, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Shucks Doc, this is a discussion about policy, not politics, ain't that so? To my eye, things only turn towards nasty once names are mentioned... so if all can refrain from trying to identify and proclaim exactly *which* moronic dirty scoundrels it is/was who are responsible for our woes, then I should think some decent measure of peace can be preserved...

     

    But it does take restraint. ;)
    29 Aug 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "The problem really is the voters who put them there."

     

    Golden truth there RA.

     

    But that is why it is so supremely important that much care must be taken to avoid everything, ie policy, that works to infantilize and/or enervate the nation's citizenry. A nation the locus of whose sovereignty ultimately resides in the very population, must above all keep its wits. Else, as you rightly point out, bad choices ensue...
    29 Aug 2014, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    And I never fail to take an opportunity to repeat my favorite quote from my avatar.

     

    "Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."

     

    Frederic Bastiat, "Government," 1848
    http://bit.ly/yq6PXC
    29 Aug 2014, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "...And the trouble...is that... sooner or later you run out of other people's money"

     

    Oh, but not if you *earn* it. ;)
    29 Aug 2014, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A friend's favorite theory is that the root of the problem lies with senior bureaucrats, GS-13 +, who wield perpetual power regardless of which party holds the electoral mandate at a particular point in time. It's a scary thought, but truer than many of us would like to admit.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    And then there is that old Rothschild quote:

     

    "Give me control of a nation's money
    and I care not who makes the laws."

     

    Mayer Amschel Rothschild
    http://bit.ly/1wQbN74

     

    I agree with your friends theory to a point John; however, I believe they are more like 'accessories after the fact' and the root lies in the above quote.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I have long held that we need not limit the terms of elected officials, but to do so for the unelected bureaucrats.

     

    The former we can kick out in a few years, so their power to wield and the harm they can cause is limited by the need to appease their voters.

     

    The latter have no such restraints and end up wielding far more power and doing far more harm, ultimately.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2814) | Send Message
     
    481> I don't intend to attack that one senator, but the video footage is very revealing. Can't be politically motivated on my part since he is a democrat and I usually vote for democrats.

     

    I agree on your other. The highest goal of education is to learn not regurgitating facts but critical thinking skills. When the leaders of the nation are lousy critical thinkers, most, it's a colossal failure of education. Not simply the leaders' education but the voters, which is a reflection of the whole nation.

     

    I'm with Buffett who says the US economy will continue to grow, not wither, but there's certainly a lot of ugliness on Capitol Hill that is embarassing, and a lot of dumb popular ideas these days that end up paralyzing and dividing the country.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Much truth there John, I've seen some of it in action up close...

     

    When the political/policy tides run in their preferred direction, they run with the current and take whatever new ground they can. And when the tides sometimes change for a season? They cling like barnacles to the rocks and wait it out...
    29 Aug 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    When "compromise" is considered a sin in a body that is conceived for the purpose of reaching acceptable compromises, our enemies rejoice.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    fair points RA, and fwiw, my riff about not naming names wasn't related to your link on Pryor.. which was perfectly cricket.. (I find the order in which comments end up appearing in final is often not the same order in which they were entered, and so sometimes...confusion)

     

    See? We're having fun! ;)
    29 Aug 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like