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  • Axion Power Concentrator 84: Beginning April 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green! 214 comments
    Apr 2, 2012 5:46 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International other than possibly being shareholders and/or interested potential investors. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International participates or follows the activities in these instablogs.

    With that out of the way ...

    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    A gem of an article by Bangwhiz:

    Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!

    There are two important facts about the Axion PbC battery stockholders need to understand. First, it is not a commodity product like bananas or standard lead acid batteries. Its different. Secondly, being different engineers have to design new systems versus whatever they've done before if they are to benefit from its unique performance characteristics. That means change, and like the Eagles sang in their song Sad Cafe, "But things in this life change very slowly, if they ever change at all."

    People and organizations resist change unless they are either forced by some outside pressure, or the benefits to them are so great it is sufficient motivation alone. In the case of the PbC battery two organizations, Norfolk Southern and BMW, were drawn to the PbC battery because they had a problem the PbC might solve for them. Conventional commodity lead acid batteries were not up to the demands of stop start automobiles or battery powered electric locomotives. They were embracing and seeking change.

    Inventors have been waving magic beans in front of engineers eyes forever and often those magic beans lose their magic very quickly when engineers attempt to put them to practical use. Consequently, engineers are inherently skeptical of anything new until it has proven itself truly useful and reliable.

    Because the PbC battery has different electrical and performance characteristics engineers at a fork lift manufacturer, auto company, railroad, or any other company will need to design and build new electrical and or mechanical subsystems specifically engineered for the PbC battery before they can benefit from the PbC 's magic beans.

    BMW and Norfolk Southern possessed a strong enough interest in the PbC to commit to the time and money required to conduct preliminary test and evaluation programs followed by conceptual system designs, then building actual prototype systems made specifically for the PbC. That has been followed by more test and evaluation of the prototype systems and perhaps modifications to the prototypes leading to a final design. This activity would be coupled with trade off studies of any final PbC system design versus all the other possible solutions including detailed cost benefit number crunching studies. The engineers design and develop, the bean counters rule.

    Because of any non-disclosure agreements Axion has signed we do not know the status of most of the ongoing potential customer development programs for the PbC battery. Big organizations are big because they haven't made any big mistakes. It is an inherent slow process demanding patience from Axion and its stockholders. No one is more anxious to sell the the PbC battery and produce millions of PbC electrodes for the lead acid industry than Axion's management. It is just going to take the time it takes and not a minute less.

    Axion does have one product not subject to so much trial and tribulation - the PowerCube ranging in size from the mini-cube to 20MWs. You could almost write a design spec and purchase order on the back of a napkin. 10 MWs standby power for 30 minutes. Some have suggested Axion create some sample PowerCubes and give them to prestigious customers to try free of charge. You just "plug" them in. Not hardly. You need to run the power into and out of the PowerCube and that means site specific power distribution systems, building permits and construction. The installation may need to be fixed inside a building with all the design and construction that entails versus sitting outside in a trailer.

    I'm not an engineer so I am not going to try and describe what all a customer has to do to utilize a PowerCube, but it is going to be a lot more than "just plugging it in." Axion Power Concentrator commentator, DRich, who is an engineer, said, "I don't know if this covers it, but even in grid applications, 'samples' aren't all that practical. Even though the batteries are the same, it is easy to assume that is where 'sameness' ends. Each business will have a different power use profile and thus the inverters/transformers will be different almost every time. The BMS and/or the software may need to be tailored to each power profile. There is considerable cost in engineering associated with those 'samples'."

    Anyone who wants to buy whatever size PowerCube they want for all its benefits will need the services of an electrical engineering firm, or an in-house electrical engineering staff, to integrate the PowerCube into their facility. Then there are all the software control issues that will need to be sorted out for the specific customer's power usage profile. It isn't rocket science, but it is involved and takes time and money to accomplish. There is no free lunch. For my money I would rather Axion Power Director of Marketing, Vani Dantam, just sell someone a PowerCube than probably spend the same amount of time and money trying to convince a prospect to take one for free.

    An Axion Power sales rep can't just waltz into a E-Bike or forklift or UPS manufacturer and say, "We've got a special on PbC's today, 3 for the price of 2." Think about how many people in a prospective customer have to agree that building anything using the PbC - a product they've never seen or used before, with nothing sitting around they can just drop it into and then turn it on - is worth their time, money and effort?

    I have a lot of major account sales experience. I've been Vice President of Sales for a hardware design, development and prototype engineering company. I've been Manager of Business Development for a nuclear engineering firm. Most of the time when you go through the door of a large company representing a new product or service it is just like pushing in the side of a sponge, the minute you leave everything pops back out just like it was before. Nothing has changed. If you are lucky maybe whomever you talked to talks to their boss, who then talks to his boss, etc etc.

    When they want you they call you. Until then, you are just whistling Dixie. Then after they call you it isn't a done deal. Everybody up the line has to confirm the decision. The numbers have to work, the details have to mesh, the timing has to be right - and on top of that they have to like and respect you and your organization. They have to be true believers.

    So when you are screaming for Axion Power CEO, Thomas Granville, to just sell or give away Powercubes or PbC's, you need to understand the complexity of doing so, and the time required to achieve an actual sale. Engineers are methodical, cautious professionals who have their careers at risk every time they draw a line or circle. They are not going to endorse anything until they are certain of the cost and benefits.

    About a year ago I made a bold statement that I would like to get on the phone and sell PbC's on straight commission. I said I might starve for a while but I would eventually find somebody who would buy some PbC's. John Petersen said "I wish it were so simple." He was right and I was over reaching a bit. I just didn't realize the complexity involved in selling the PbC because it is different from existing commodity lead acid batteries.

    I fully recognize the sales and marketing issues now, and if you haven't thought about it before perhaps this article will lead you to further contemplation on the subject. I still wouldn't mind selling the PbC, but I would pack a lot bigger back pack full of food before I picked up the phone. I would also plan on it taking one or more years of work before I might get a sale. Its just a tough business being green if you are a frog, or selling a PbC battery nobody has ever used before.

    ####
    Hearty gratitude to Bangwhiz on behalf of the Axion Power Concentrator series!

    ####

    During the past seven months the Axion Power Concentrators have organically grown into a vast trove of information all things Axion Power related, all things battery related, all things Energy Storage Sector related.

    Between now and 15 years from now, the global expenditure on energy in every way energy is created, delivered, conserved and used will be in the trillions of dollars.

    Derived from well over 12,000 Axion Power Concentrator comments comes to us a compendium archive created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. In short here is what it is, and does:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    It also contains a "New to Axion" section for people who are new to Axion and want a good starting point for their own due diligence. The site is updated daily as new links are posted to current comment threads. Links are posted by topic and can also be found using the "Search This Site" tab.

    The Comment Search Feature on the homepage is great for finding a comment you want to read again that would normally be lost in all the thousands of past comments. Simply search using a good key word or phrase, or any Google search term modifier, such as AND etc.

    New Feature: You can now search all past comments or just the past 3 months.

    Complimenting the Axion Power Concentrator Web Site is the Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, "A repository of information about Axion Power International, Inc. and PbC® battery technology" created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Want to ask, or have someone ask, Axion Power leadership a question during the forthcoming April 2, 2012 conference call? The following link led by Bangwhiz is where you can write your question, maybe have it discussed and expanded upon before the conference call.

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/667879-bangwhiz/279411-axion-power-2011-q4-march-conference-call-questions-list?source=kizur

    Jlyleluce has created a nice table comparing and summarizing some of the critical performance attributes of standard and PbC batteries. It clearly demonstrates why the PbC will be the perferred choice in many applications requiring long-lived stable high charge acceptance rates. It has been slightly reformatted for display purposes.

    (click to enlarge)
     COMPARISON OF BATTERY TECHNOLOGY FOR START/STOP APPLICATION

    481086 and Siliconhillbilly posted comments that seemed to be appropriate for inclusion here (thanks to FocalPoint Analytics for suggesting this) because they help bring some clarity to the fact that Axion's product is really not "just another battery".

    • 481086: Tim, FPA, I'm having a hard time seeing how/why the PbC would be superior to AGM as a simple starting (or SLI) battery... to my mind, that's not really PbC's strength. AGM is doing that duty just fine at lower cost than PbC. Unless you're talking hotel loads and hanging out for extended times at PSOC I don't see how PbC is compelling there. It's more an energy exchange device rather than an energy storage device. Cranking once or twice a day is a waste of its talents (because it does carry that small but not insignificant price premium). It's rather a new type of device that only makes real sense for applications that are going to cycle it *hard* through a range of intermediate PSOCs such as the uber-demanding hybrid locomotive app. And IMHO those are indeed the very applications that are still under intense development to some extent. The PbC is going to be an invaluable WORKHORSE there... *in the right applications*---again, ones optimized especially for PbC's unique and powerful strengths, but I think for just about every other pedestrian Lead-Acid application it's either an awkward fit or it's overkill. And I think simple engine starting is an application in that category. To use an aviation analogy, there's a good reason you don't see turbojet engines on crop-dusters. It would be dumb. And not even that sexy. You'd only burn beau-coup gas, risk FOD damage with every pass, all but cook the stuff you're trying to spray, and probably crash anyway. All I'm saying is choose the right tool for the job. PbC is a new and different tool. The jobs that will use it best are still figuring it out. A ramble here I know, but the PbC is not just simply a better battery, it's a different animal altogether.
    • Siliconhillbilly: >FPA: The PbC is partly a capacitor. To extract the maximum energy from it you need to discharge it from Vpeak to 1/2 Vpeak.

      A standard lead acid battery with double lead electrodes will release 80-90% of it's stored energy with about a 15% drop in terminal voltage. That is, the conventional LA battery appears to be almost a constant voltage source thru much of it's energy discharge cycle.

      This means the two batteries are quite different from an engineering and application viewpoint. That said, the PbC is unbeatable in applications optimized for its characteristics.

      Frequent shallow to medium State of Charge cycles are a prime example. The capacitor (non-chemical) portion of the PbC accepts frequent cycling with essentially no degradation. This makes it ideal for SS auto systems and regenerative braking that require very high charge rate and cycle life from a battery.

      Some of the delay we are seeing is the time it takes the application engineers to wed the PbC to their specific application. It's a learning experience for the technical people who have never seen anything like the PbC before. But they will figure it out. Hopefully in not too many more months.

    ####

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    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (214)
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  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I hate to be a whiner but *It's Not Easy Being Green!* is getting a little long in the tooth. Maybe somebody will be inspired to write on another theme after the CC.
    2 Apr 2012, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    It's also getting rather long as things keep getting tacked on but nothing gets removed. I second the motion to move on and more quickly cycle (perhaps smaller bites of) content.
    2 Apr 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I agree with JP and Deamiter. Essential info for the concentrator and smaller bits of Axion info to keep the header as short and sweet as possible.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Boy am I tired of me too!
    2 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Well, just for a contrarian POV, since sales has been, and seems to continue to be, a major concern here, I've trouble seeing a replacement ATM that would have greater utility, other than addressing a different topic.

     

    Whether the new topic would offer as much value to new visitors would depend, of course.

     

    Something that made a supportable case for projected near-term revenue growth (anybody dare?) might be handy.

     

    I was hoping that something that came out of the CC might be fodder for a new header article, if it portends a change in some major area.

     

    For me, the suggestion of a new topic *after* the CC might offer some good thoughts.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Hoping to hear the economics of the PowerCube now that it has been used in real time with PJM. If the payback is short enough it could have an immediate impact on PowerCube sales.
    That would make an interesting in depth article.

     

    Production numbers could make an interesting in depth article.

     

    New info on the railroads could make for an interesting article.
    2 Apr 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    Another approach for the next APH header article would be to list concrete milestones achieved by AXPW for each year/quarter of its existence. By that I mean simple -- and tangible/quantifiable -- descriptions of what has been delivered to date by management with shareholder funds invested.

     

    So many of the comments on the APH rightly have a focus on how long it is taking to move the dial in manufacturing development/performance, customer acquisition/PbC sales, etc. I think a snapshot of what has already been accomplished would go a long way in balancing perspectives for new and "old" AXPW investors.
    2 Apr 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I have a couple of those items on my to do list including articles on battery applications in rail electrification and a new Lux report that's forecasting 113.5 billion in global grid storage demand by 2017, but they're more industry pieces than Axion specific articles. While I love the depth of the concentrator discussions, I prefer the profile of the main page articles. I will, however, give Mercy's suggestion some thought to see if I can cobble something together that makes sense.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    OT...Ford fusion offers Start/Stop for only $295

     

    http://reut.rs/H6LMWV
    2 Apr 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Here's the (AXPW) EOY Earnings PR

     

    "Axion Power Reports Year-End Results for 2011"

     

    http://prn.to/HIkSo0

     

    When talking about the unexpected diversity of applications and the more difficult than expected road, I think this sums things up nicely.

     

    "So far we have passed all the hurdles and made excellent progress in each of these markets, even as other, more exotic and more highly publicized battery chemistries, and battery companies, have fallen by the wayside."

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    New verbiage emailed this morning with the year end release:

     

    "During 2011 there were important sales of PbC batteries, most notably to Norfolk Southern (NS), one of the nation's largest class-A railroads. The Norfolk Southern batteries were accepted and are being used for large string platform testing for battery-powered locomotives. Axion has had a program with NS since the Fall of 2009 and believes it is one of the very few advanced battery companies in the world that has an initiative designed to provide a major rail company a "clean, green" energy storage solution for their hybrid locomotive initiative.

     

    Also during 2011, Axion Power celebrated its first connection to the huge PJM electric power grid for saving and storing electricity. Axion provided a 0.5MW PowerCube™ ("CUBE") that was connected into the PJM network this past December. Initial use of our Cube will be for the frequency regulation market via demand response and curtailment, but the Cube has broad application beyond this use. Subsequent to year end the Company announced a contract for a Zero energy building in the United States Washington Naval Yard. Axion believes the potential for micro-storage applications on the US electric grid is very large and that the opportunity exists on both sides of the meter.

     

    The hybrid vehicle market continues to be a major focus for Axion, and during 2011 studies and demonstrations continued with European and US automakers, primarily in the stop/start application for the micro-hybrid vehicles market. Axion feels that the PbC battery, because of its large charge acceptance and fast recharge capabilities, can offer a low cost solution for operating the ancillary load (i.e. hotel load) in the micro-hybrid platform.

     

    Subsequent to year-end, on February 3, 2012, Axion completed a registered-direct offering of common stock that provided $8.6 million of new financing that will be used for working capital and for general corporate purposes. It is important to keep this new financing in mind when studying the financial statements for December 31, 2011.

     

    Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "Although the road has been longer than we anticipated, we are finding the market opportunities for our PbC product applications are larger and more diverse than we had initially forecast. The industries we are working with include the U.S. military, the electrical generation industry, vehicle manufacturers and railroads – each of them well known for having long decision cycles and difficult, demanding requirements. So far we have passed all the hurdles and made excellent progress in each of these markets, even as other, more exotic and more highly publicized battery chemistries, and battery companies, have fallen by the wayside.

     

    "We believe that our PbC batteries will be one of the ultimate winners in the contest for new energy storage technologies. Our batteries have unique properties that include a very high rate of charge acceptance and fast recharge capabilities. The PbC batteries are a fraction of the cost of more exotic chemistries. The PbC battery can be manufactured in existing factories in normal manufacturing environments (not clean rooms). They provide superior performance in all weather conditions, unlike competitive products. PbC batteries are completely recyclable and they don't require high-cost, low-availability raw materials. We have every faith in PbC technology, and strong belief in our extraordinary and hard-working Axion team."

     

    Granville concluded: "We're still here; we're still viable; we're still servicing our customers and rapidly expanding our customer base; we're still improving our product; we're still improving our team. We're here and we plan to be here for the long run."
    2 Apr 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Very nicely written. I sense Vani's influence.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    I do not believe that we were told how/why the last conference call failed.

     

    I do not know how the system works but I am concerned that there may be a very large number of interested parties attempting to listen in later this morning. Will the system be capable of handling potentially a hundred or more callers?
    2 Apr 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've always used the webcast since I think it would be inappropriate for me to ask questions. It always works.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    Axion uses a third party to run the conference call. The Axion call is small for any vendor that manages conference calls for public companies. Plenty of us will be listening to the recording tonight, which requires even less resources.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    is any one else concerned that the stock isn't moving at all. I was hoping after the release that it would pop a little. I just hope everyone isn't waiting for the cc to buy....am i wrong?

     

    Still new to micro stocks..

     

    Thanks
    MAP
    2 Apr 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    There has been no catalyst to make people run to buy yet. Most of what was read was already known and discussed here at length.
    2 Apr 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Well, the ask is now .6049 so either there is a mistake or the willing seller pool has finally dried up!?
    2 Apr 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    mistake
    2 Apr 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    That is exactly how i felt. Plus am watching the stock slide ever so slowly downward. I hope we get a rabbit pulled out of the hat in a half hr.

     

    We shall see
    2 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    I would think with what is likely substantial amplifying info to come in here in less than an hour, that most folks with itchy fingers are willing to wait to hear what is said.... Some may be looking to get an early jump on the herd, and we may see something like that happen during the call, but one would have to be pretty confident in their convictions to make big moves now, at this moment, with the event so close...
    2 Apr 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    The telephone number for the conference call requires a user ID which I don't have and the website shows no link to the CC.

     

    ??????????????????
    HELP
    2 Apr 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/HhhBa3#

     

    listen on the net if you like but you don't need an id.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    All I have is lovely classical music
    2 Apr 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    877-317-6789

     

    No user ID needed.

     

    I'm in, so I know this to be true.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    here we go
    2 Apr 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Never mind... here we go
    2 Apr 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    in just a moment
    2 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Mozart I think... I just called in 877-317-6789 , no user ID needed... just gave the operator (human) my name and number...
    2 Apr 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Well, CC or not, 129.9K traded, $0.391-$0.405.

     

    ATM 10K *presented* bid $0.40, *presented* ask 5K $0.404.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else surprised Vani isn't on the call?
    2 Apr 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    "Ongoing call" right now with BMW...that's what he is doing?
    2 Apr 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    "...IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS."

     

    Nice!
    2 Apr 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • astroboy7
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    I'm confused where things are with Norfolk Southern, can someone ask?
    2 Apr 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    added shares @ .404
    2 Apr 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Completed up to my max 120k. Never been so out there!

     

    Sure hope my gut is right and its not just the after effects of last nights Bushmills!
    2 Apr 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I think the next time someone independently gathers data on how much AXPW we own, rather than disclosing the number of shares we own, it would be interesting to know the average percentage of our total investment portfolio AXPW takes up (should be a different person than the one who collected data on number of shares owned for obvious privacy reasons)
    2 Apr 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    My guess is that professional investment advisors would shutter if they could see how grossly overweight this crew is in AXPW. At least I know that's the case in my accounts.
    3 Apr 2012, 04:11 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1733) | Send Message
     
    He did not say that auto would be in the near term mix.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    RE: auto

     

    I don't expect an announcement like that until its a done deal.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Even if it was I doubt that he could say so given the OEM proclivity for keeping an iron grip on public statements.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely agree. The first we will hear from BMW, Ford, etc. will come from them, not Axion.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    I think I'm going to bag my questions, Exide is a sensitive issue I'm sure, and TG's not going to want to air his top challenges in front of competitors...
    2 Apr 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Breakeven on a cash flow basis in 2013.
    Also a passing comment regarding power cube sales "in the next few months"
    2 Apr 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Was the Hong Leong guy from this company? http://bit.ly/HH96sU
    2 Apr 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Studying the PowerCube for integration with their hotel properties?
    2 Apr 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    WDD. I was thinking Grocery stores (Walmart) with significant loads but hotel properties with varying loads might be better.

     

    Oh the possibilities...
    2 Apr 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    JS...curious he was given just 1 question where others were able to get in 2 or 3.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    yes, the first fella must have had 4 questions.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    He was an analyst?

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but i didn't catch the firm name.
    3 Apr 2012, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Griffin Securities?
    3 Apr 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    yes...Keith Markey...PHD...but looks to be biotech
    3 Apr 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I tried for you on production capacity for each line JP, but I am sure you heard the "no comment beyond 3000". Hope everyone was pleased with the carbon sheet answer. I thought the whole conference call was a trememdous upper. I suppose the "no good news goes unpunished" rule is still in effect so I guess without looking the stock is down again today! :<)
    2 Apr 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    I also enjoyed TG's answer regarding carbon sheeting.

     

    Perhaps what stood out most to me, besides Norfolk's buying some large strings, was, "Various Viridity projects with foriegn connections."

     

    2 Apr 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Up 0.70% ATM. Excellent volume 280,531, low $0.391, high $0.405.

     

    If ADVFN can be believed, buy:sell @ 12:03 is 1.71:1.

     

    Not too shabby.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've been quiet about the carbon sheeting until Axion said something but in my view the statement that it's being installed now is the most important news on the call, although the news that if a major order came in tomorrow they could immediately order the electrode fab equipment to build it was a close second.

     

    When I was last in New Castle (2007) the carbon sheet processing was far and away the most labor intensive manufacturing function. Hints that they'd found a way to automate the process in a single pass roll were way up on my *I want to hear something official* list. The grapevine carried news of wondrous progress, but without confirmation it wasn't enough to talk about. Now that management has spoken and confirmed that a single roll electrode sheeting process is being installed I'm ecstatic.

     

    The statement that they could order the Gen3 line tomorrow tells me that the adjusting and tweaking is done and the only thing standing between Beta Product and Commercial Product is enough business to justify the spending. The boys won't splash out millions thinking "If we build it they will come." But they're apparently locked and loaded to build it on a moments notice.

     

    Now it's all up to the battery and the sales force.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Residential Mini-Cube or other single phase applications.

     

    Most transmission and distribution lines are 3 phase. Most of the heavy distribution demand is 3 phase and the Power Cube is 3 phase. However, everything else is single phase. That is, most of the lighter loads are attached to one of the three phases in a calculated best guess by engineering. However, the potential for the load to vary between the 3 is huge. It is common practice for the crews to swing loads from one phase to another in an effort to help balance the load.

     

    When I first heard about the residential/single phase Mini Cube I had my doubts about PJM's interest. However, the Journeyman Lineman in me thinks they may value a single phase quite a bit if they were given the opportunity to control curtailment and load sheeding at the single phase level. Just my opinion...
    2 Apr 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    IIRC, most residential feeds to the breaker box are 3 phase. In the box it's split to feed one phase for various major circuits.

     

    Where you need 220, they bring two phases back together.

     

    Am I wrong? If not, I don't see any real issues.

     

    Can you fill me in a bit?

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    HTL. I was talking about primary voltages - sorry. All residential (with few exceptions) is single phase (primary) which on the secondary side provides two phases (secondary) and a neutral. Three phase on the secondary side gives 3 hot legs and a neurtral. Phase to phase on the secondary side is 220-240 and phase to neutral is 110-120.

     

    Most office spaces, apartments and other spaces without motors are also single phase on the primary side. On a rare occasion they will bring in a 3 phase service as you describe and distribute the load at the power center.

     

    There is a lot of single phase out there, which I believe is the target of the Mini-Cube (a three phase inverter has got to very expensive). And I don't see any real issues as most of the equipment used to construct a Mini-Cube has been manufactured in quantity for some time. Again, I think PJM would be very happy to be able to balance their phase to phase primary loads from the secondary side with the Mini-Cube...
    2 Apr 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Thanks sir!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I think the Sept 2012 "Indiana Home Show" Tom referred to is this:
    http://bit.ly/HaQq7j

     

    But Rosewater is not yet listed as a Exhibitor here: http://bit.ly/H9w3lm

     

    though perhaps they could be using a different business name ...

     

    Tom also said the Residential Mini-Cube would be "appearing" sooner than that, though I don't recall whether through Rosewater or Axion directly.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I will have to read the transcript but it sounded like the Residential Mini-Cube might be Rosewater and Axion was going after the PowerCube markets (PJM, Oil Fields and Other)...
    2 Apr 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2215) | Send Message
     
    HTL: You are wrong :-)

     

    Most residential feeds are 220V, split. That is, there are two 110V-to-neutral feeds that are 180 degrees out of phase. For the dryer or other power hungry appliance the two "hot" 110V feeds are used together to supply the 220V. But there is only one phase of the 3 phase "pole power" supplied to a house.

     

    Large all-electric homes or those with "special needs" may be different.
    2 Apr 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The bottom line is there are a lot of feet on the street working to build sales. I wish them all a world of good luck.
    2 Apr 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    JP. I have heard you say many times that when the facts change,then so will your thoughts...

     

    Here's one for you. Rosewater is targeting the residential market. More specifically the “Eco-Royalty” with the resources to buy a fully integrated Mini-Cube. They will be able to store those green electrons you paint on the creation side and program the Mini-Cube to download them into the Fisker, Tesla or EV of their choice. I am thinking you may need an asterisk with an “unless you have a Rosewater Mini-Cube” statement at the end of your message.

     

    I am very much a fan of solar if it is generated, stored and used at the same location. I am not a fan of the EV for all the reasons provided in your articles. However, if there was a concession to be made it might be the EV paired with the Mini-Cube. It will be a landmark day when we are able to store energy at the residential/single phase level...
    2 Apr 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... An EV, even with "green" electrons, makes no economic sense in a macro economic sense. It is still a waste of battery power that would be better used to reduce fossil fuel consumption worldwide in a larger number of vehicles. That will not stop those with means from satisfying some need they have & can afford but it will not sustain a commodity industry.

     

    I know it's a very socialist idea but battery power is best used to stretch another limited resource, oil, as far as possible to keep prices as low as possible and meet demand. Oh well, I'm not a Tesla kind of capitalist.
    2 Apr 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    >DRich, I am pretty sure I tied the green electrons with the eco-royalty which removes it from any macro economic sense. I am growing weary of people focusing on the negative side of my comments. How about some "benefit of doubt" on your first read? I will admit that I am NOT the the best at conveying thoughts to paper but read it again, specifically this part...

     

    "I am not a fan of the EV for all the reasons provided in your articles. However, if there was a concession to be made it might be the EV paired with the Mini-Cube."
    2 Apr 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Entirely reasonable Tim. The day the world runs out of room for a little creativity is the day the world stops finding solutions. And I want to second a call for more benefit, less doubt... ;)
    2 Apr 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... I apologize if you think I'm brow beating or negatively piling on your comments. I mean no offense.

     

    I, too, am a big solar & wind power advocate but am quite aware of the limitations and know neither work at all without battery (preferably, a PowerCube) power. I'm also a Global Warming "believer". I'm not sure I believe it's man-made but do think Man aggravates it and true or not don't believe it's worth the consequences to deny it and be wrong.

     

    If Rosewater can sell Mini-Cubes to the "Eco-royalty" for whatever reason ... God Bless them. I just have a thing about current EV technology. If the "Royals" want to use those electrons to power the main house, the vacation home or whatever ... got no problem with that. Its their money. If the the topic is EV & the Eco-Bling crowd and is more than "the rich & their toys" (which I, also, have no problem with) but as societal status symbols then it goes straight to macro economics because the whole industry, presently advertised the next ubiquitous form of transportation, is a drain on worldwide economic development & energy markets of all kinds.

     

    Again, sorry if I offended.
    2 Apr 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    No question in my mind on that score Tim.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    >DRich, first, I have a great deal of respect for you in all areas and know that it was not your intent to offend. I was just disappointed that my points were missed which is not you but rather my inability to communicate.

     

    The post wasn't meant to be taken very seriously. I have no expectation to see an asterisk in JP's next green electron rebuttal. It was just some irony that the mini-cube will be marketed to the Royals (to start with) and provide a segregated environment for the green electrons to live their life from birth in a solar panel to their death in an EV...

     

    We are good and thank you..
    3 Apr 2012, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Tim E.:
    Thanks for your input, very illustrative.
    Have a good day.
    8 Apr 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    That was kind of you Carlos, thank you...
    8 Apr 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    That was solid. I heard confidence and conviction. "2012 is going to be a VERY exciting year"
    2 Apr 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I was pretty darn impressed as well. This is a company going somewhere and moving in an environment where we have seen much larger more hyped companies get thrown off the track.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    If so, he aughta be calling TG right now to talk more, as his question was very entry-level. Would be great to have some Power Cube sales in asia, too.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Not sure how cash flow break even in 2013+ and similar revenue growth (300%+ give or take) goes together. Sounds like to get to 25M+ plus we will increase our spending well beyond the yearly 8M burn.

     

    Good call with a few awkward moments. Still most of our usuall mysteries remain (NS, BMW, time lines, line capacity, cost breakdowns).

     

    Stay the course I will; maybe even grab some more in the low .40s.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Well it sounds like we are VERY close with Norfolk...That in itself is a nice sign..But i still have my concerns financially as others do take their time to decide.

     

    Anyone else surprised that BMW was mentioned by name??

     

    map
    2 Apr 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering what kind of issue NS has that took so long to resolve.. but it sounded like it was very close to beeing resolved.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    They have enough sales activity ongoing now that NS and BMW are not quite as critical. The sales pipeline is pretty broad and with the statement that they expected several 100% increase in revenues YOY versus 2011 I think you can relax your concerns financially. The capital raise in 2013 was a foregone conclusion so no big problems there. They will get it done. Autos are most likely a 2013 event.

     

    It was important to indicate that the BMW program was still ongoing that's all. In the summer of 2011 Axion said auto market was at least 24 months away.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I was, I think, the 2nd questioner, and they moved on after I think 2 of my questions. I did the *1 thing again, but I guess they ran out of time, and of course it was important that many got to participate.

     

    But my next question was going to be about EPA and NS, and I wonder if that was the issue. I'm pretty sure it was referred to in the previous call, but whatever the issue, he seemed to be stopping himself short, and maybe wouldn't have taken the bait even if it was the EPA, and maybe because NS doesn't want him creating even a hint of heat between NS and the EPA.

     

    I wonder how long the call would have gone if they had taken all questions! Did anyone NOT get to ask a question that wanted to?
    2 Apr 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    I re-did the *1 too, but no joy.

     

    I had prioritized the question and was ready to run the list.

     

    Oh well.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There was a reference in the last CC about NS having some EPA issues to deal with on their end. It sounds like they've been resolved and the statements that NS would be a Q2 event were encouraging in light of the fact that Q2 started YESTERDAY.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    wt, thanks for asking some good questions. Thanks to everyone who called and asked. Very productive conference call.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    TG stated that NS problems on their end were either "resolved now or very very close"...that's good enough for me now.

     

    I think he covered the most important issues/questions on the call with very little sand bagging...I was impressed. This is still going to be a tough year, but break even in 2013 is maybe huge to me.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    William, my question was asked by the analyst who kicked off the Q&A so I did not enter *1. I was very pleased with TG's detailed list of 2011 accomplishments, but I really wanted to know what his milestones to gauge performance over the coming months are.

     

    His first response to Keith when this question was asked -- was that he did not want to divulge competitive information. Most companies I invest in and have worked in, however, provide some form of going-forward priorities/milestones to describe what success looks like. It can be done in general terms and with the usual qualifiers so no trade secrets are divulged, but it needs to be done so investors and analysts can gauge performance. In other words, assurances of "we plan to make progress" are usually not enough. I hope that TG will consider having some tangible priorities/milestones (in general terms) to share in time for the annual meeting.

     

    Overall I thought it was a pretty good call -- and I liked the natural comfort level TG exuded by phone.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >f-kru ... The issues with NS, I'd venture to guess, are all inside politics. There is more than likely a bias against "All-Electric", tugs between Yard & OTR service and ideas how better to spend the budget. As long as it is moving forward in any manner, things are fine. Don't be a bit surprised if R.J. Corman or NRE are among, if not, the first real customers for Axion.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    I can see why he would not want to paint himself into a corner with a time-line, but the identification of the milestones, by management, are critically important pieces of information.

     

    He did mention a key milestone I was looking for. That was news to the effect that they have apparently cost effectively solved the carbon sheeting difficulty. Because of that, they now appear to have the ability to generate volume production line capacity (Gen 3) when business (sales) dictates. That means they are a lot closer to matching orders with production ability. The electrode defect rate is critically important because there are multiple electrodes in a completed battery.
    2 Apr 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    My impression is that Mr. TG is really not happy being out there fielding questions from who knows where.......After all who would?

     

    All in all my impression is that there will be significant news for investors by the fall.

     

    That news will be focused around the Power Cube application for this year and may well be expanded to automotive in 2013.

     

    That sounds good to me as the automotive market could possibly require millions of PbC batteries but if the Power Cube takes off first there will be time to ramp up the production of the electrode production capabilities before automotive orders are in hand.

     

    As Mercy and others have said, it was a positive CC.

     

    Great!!! Any BUYERS out there???
    2 Apr 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    "I can see why he would not want to paint himself into a corner with a time-line, but the identification of the milestones, by management, are critically important pieces of information."

     

    I agree with this sentiment probably because I get a annoyed when the timelines are not met or go significantly over without explanation. It has the tendency to damage an executive's credibility.
    2 Apr 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    >DRich, that's a very good point. It seems that it's all about inside politics in companies of that size.
    2 Apr 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    OMG ... a best bid over .41 ... and for 18K!
    2 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    The important thing is ramping volume on higher prices. This says all was well-received.

     

    High trade now $0.4149.

     

    400.5K shares.

     

    Draw you lap-bar tight as we make the climb to the top of the roller-coaster.

     

    If it goes like other things, at least three days of higher prices and volumes should be seen before any pause and re-trace appears.

     

    Some folks wait three days to allow the fervor to cool before making their entry.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I found the hacking reference w.r.t. Viridity Energy quite interesting. Wonder how wide spread that knowledge is, and whether it's damaged their reputation with either PJM or potential customers.

     

    Or course tons of businesses get hacked that you never hear about ...
    2 Apr 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Maybe since TG really did not want to talk about that we should return the favor and not talk about it.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    co-sign jakurtz's statement
    2 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    It didn't surprise me though as there's been lots of MSM stories about hacking of all sorts of grid and other resources originating from China and other places.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I think he was referring to PJM's software getting hacked, not Viridity's.
    3 Apr 2012, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    What a wonderful call.

     

    For those with big doubts, some were reduced and some almost eliminated.

     

    For others, 300%-400% sales growth in 2012 would mean approx. $25m-$30m.

     

    For the impatient, Power Cube sales (including NS) expected in the next few months.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I have to mention MrI. Others might accuse me of just being a cheerleader at times for Axion and even though I have been studying Axion day-in and day-out for over a year I am still inexperienced in investing, so me saying what a wonderful call is one thing and perhaps people take it with a grain of salt rightly or wrongly. However, you who has been seasoned for a couple decades in venture capital and investing experience as well as being a relatively recent investor to Axion saying "What a wonderful call" means quite a bit in my mind.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Thx, jk. Several months ago I listened to the Q3 conf call. What a difference this time. TG came out swinging. No major tech issues with the call itself. Lots of questions--even one perhaps from a guy in asia (?) asking how the PbC compares to (the now often discredited) li-ion The stk is no longer falling.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It was the strongest call I've heard to date – by a wide margin. Tom avoided things I thought he'd probably avoid and provided more detail than I expected in several areas.

     

    I want to congratulate every single caller for doing a great job in asking questions that invited Tom to explain the business.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I can't wait to listen to this for myself tonight back at the hotel.

     

    It's been great to get the highlights from everyone.

     

    Strongly considering buying just a few more shares to get rid of some dry powder but I want to hear the CC with my own ears.

     

    D
    2 Apr 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I'm re-listening right now, because I only caught the last half (maybe) of questions. Here's the direct link to the mp3:
    http://bit.ly/H9qPcO
    Should work without registering (I think).
    2 Apr 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    thanks f-kru
    2 Apr 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I might have to blow the last of my Axion powder today.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    I think many positives have happened in the past 90 days, no announcements to confirm it yet...but I feel much more confident now that a week ago. The new hire "exceeding" expectations since Jan. is great too. Enough so that I substantially added to my position today.

     

    No need to post any of my opinions, they have mostly been covered already. I really loved him saying we would increase revenues maybe 300% + THIS YEAR !
    2 Apr 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/HB4C9w OT.. but looks like Fisker somehow found some more believers...
    2 Apr 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    well... find out who raised the money for them... and hire him when they go bankrupt... if he or she can raise money for the glorious Spruce Goose of electric cars, he or she can raise money for a real business...

     

    $392 million for a pretty car with more problems than a Jerry Springer guest
    2 Apr 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2215) | Send Message
     
    > Jon S: " glorious Spruce Goose of electric cars". Very appropriate!

     

    That got a smile from me :-) Thanks, Jon.
    3 Apr 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I blew the last of my powder at .4149.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    The PC Home Product will be introduced in Sept. at the Indianapolis Home Show....With demo's before then.

     

    I will be there, it's only 4 hours away. Anyone else?
    2 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    LT. I plan on having a very close look at this product. Maybe even before then...
    2 Apr 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    One additional salutary effect of the boost in volume: The good folks at Quercus get to move a bit more stock at better prices. I know they're a minor factor at this point, but still their final exit, when it comes, can only help to dry up supply... today should mean a few more grains of sand move from the top to the bottom of the hourglass...
    2 Apr 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    It's only their final holdings if the stock doesn't eventually hold above their approx. .70 strikes thru 2013. I'd bet they expect those options to have some value before then (and if exercised will bring Axion some more 2013 cashflow =).
    2 Apr 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Yep, ever mindful of them Bazooook. As others have expressed before, It would warm my heart greatly to see them recoup everything and then some on those options.. (apart from what that would mean to our own holdings of course)... sometimes it's easy to forget that without all thems that wrote the big checks a few years back, Axion wouldn't have made it this far, and we wouldn't be this close to Disneyland now...
    2 Apr 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The warrants present an odd dynamic for Quercus. It will cost $.75 per share to exercise the warrants. Upon issue the new shares will be restricted securities. That means they'll have to be held for a minimum of six months before any resales are permitted under Federal law.

     

    Given Quercus' crushing lack of free cash, that scenario strikes me as unlikely.

     

    There are alternatives that might allow Quercus to harvest its net value in the warrants, but the warrant shares will never be dribbled into the market like the original shares were.
    2 Apr 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    I remember a fairly good discussion of the warrants several months back... bottom line though, whenever they are in fact exercised, if in fact they ever do get exercised, the base proceeds of $7.5 million go straight into Axion's pantry, correct?
    2 Apr 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely, but it's important to understand that the warrants are very unlikely to set up another round of constant dribble out selling that pressures the market.
    3 Apr 2012, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    That seems a good point to emphasize, and one I hadn't forgotten yet. I guess it will be very interesting early next year (who knows what might be the prevailing conditions) when Axion may or may not need more financing and those warrants may begin to be factored in (or not) somehow into various parties' calculations. Sounds like a multi-variable problem that as I said sounds like it will be interesting... I wonder if we'll even be talking about it next year though or if they'll be OBE by that time...
    3 Apr 2012, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    JLP...you are right on your comment below about carbon sheeting automation being robotic now and the Gen-3 line being ready if needed....I think I heard him say it could be up and running in 2 months? Was that correct?

     

    If so, then commercialization is not here now, but could be.

     

    "I've been quiet about the carbon sheeting until Axion said something but in my view the statement that it's being installed now is the most important news on the call, although the news that if a major order came in tomorrow they could immediately order the electrode fab equipment to build it was a close second."
    2 Apr 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I had a couple distractions during the call and missed that part, but one of the calls from last year spoke of a 6 week order to delivery cycle for the Gen2 line so two months doesn't sound out of line.

     

    The goal has always been to nail the electrode fab process to a point where it could ramp quickly in New Castle and expand globally if demand for the PbC was strong. It sounds like I can tick one more item off my goals list.

     

    My favorite line was just a shade away from "REVERSE SPLIT? We don't need no stinking reverse split! We aren't even discussing the possibility."
    2 Apr 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    13 seconds of No Stinking Badges
    http://bit.ly/HfB5Qy
    2 Apr 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    I thought it a pretty good call, I actually got on,, which was nice because I didnt in the last cc, nor the one before it due to a snafu.
    The biggest thing was that, without saying who/what, they believe they will get orders this year. I assume the LA money will stay constant, and new money will be PBC. If we get a 50% increase I would be happy..(that order will go a long way in verifying the technology imo.) Matt
    2 Apr 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    But if they make the projected 300%-400% increase in revenues, it says there's a *lot* of things very near in-hand I think. I don't think the LA toll itself could be that big.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I read that discussion as an attempt to give vague guidance without going out on a limb with a clear forecast. They obviously have a lot of irons in the fire including a ramp in flooded production, short-term PbC sales to NS and others, and longer-term PbC customers in the bush that they're trying to bag and bring home for supper. The fact that he alluded to anything beyond the flooded and NS pieces was fascinating.
    2 Apr 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Compare & contrast a CC like this with the 30 second (maybe a little exaggerated)calls we were entertained with back around 2007-08. They've come a long way and TG has turned into a regular chatterbox.
    2 Apr 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2215) | Send Message
     
    DRich typed: "TG has turned into a regular chatterbox"

     

    Weellll, that may be a slight exaggeration. Maybe "more loquacious then usual" would work better ;-)
    2 Apr 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The thing I notice most is the shift in voice tones and attitude from "this is a long hard slog" to "this is fun and I'm having it"
    2 Apr 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I have to agree with TG having more bounce in his voice these days.
    2 Apr 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Probably Vani in the background whispering "With such a great product this is going to be duck soup for me! If you can make the product, I can get it out the door"! :-)

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It was certainly fascinating to hear that Mr. Dantam built a $500 million pipeline for Ener1. I knew their business failed because they tried to rescue Th!nk from bankruptcy, but I wasn't altogether clear on what kind of sales pipeline they'd put in place. A half billion dollars is impressive in my book.
    2 Apr 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    It would be really impressive if it ended up in my check "book"!! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Yep. And eating it up with a big spoon. Again, I have to go back to his exclamation how while 2011 was an exciting year, 2012 is going to be a VERY exciting year. No hedging or trace of doubt there. And I bet he wanted to be able to tell us a lot more than he was able. He seemed to have a hard time holding himself back. He can't wait to spill the beans. That's a lot different from the vibe one gets when someone is trying to gloss over something uncertain or cover a weakness...
    2 Apr 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    You know how it is with old friends where you can tell how they're doing from their tone of voice? That's the biggest reason I listen to these calls because the words may be conservative, but the tone of a man I worked with hand and glove for four years speaks volumes.
    2 Apr 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... and yet, we still don't have closure (unless I missed it) with his statement from last year about "P.O.'s in-hand". Oh, well.
    2 Apr 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Agreed. And now we have another mystery when TG said today, "Mystery sales."

     

    ####

     

    I also want to point out regarding Tom's vagueness with forward guidance in that within the very first APC, I reported that Tom stated he would like to do an offering when Axion's market cap reached $70M. I recall writing that this could be a, "tradeable event." Well...we all know that did not happen due to NS delays, and Special Situations.

     

    Tom's a fast learner. He had his loose lips sink ships mode on high today.
    2 Apr 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    If I remember back to last year, the time between the EoY 10 CC and the Q1'11 CC there was tons of news. It sounds like there could be that and more in 12. Can't wait for the Q1 call!
    2 Apr 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Should occur in less than 2 months ...
    2 Apr 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The next call will be on or before May 15th.
    3 Apr 2012, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    DR, I hear you. Though from the revenue numbers not all was due to the flooded lead acid toll contract. I have to check/listen again to confirm, but at least a few thousand PbC overall it seems, obviously for larger-scale testing though, not production...
    2 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Score one for us greenies. Buffett says the Environment should be a factor in all business decisions.

     

    http://bloom.bg/HD4ftK
    2 Apr 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Which environmental factors?

     

    The ones that find ways to reduce our systemic load on the environment regardless of their appeal to environmentalists?
    OR
    Whatever environmentalists deem appealing regardless of whether or not they are really more efficient, or if they are actually damaging the environment through other unintended consequences of passion for particular technologies without full study of the problem, the hypothetical solution, and the knock-on effects?
    2 Apr 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Wondering if I got this right. I have TG stating that flooded lead acid battery sales to be 6.4 million. If total sales are 7.6 million, can I extrapolate that PbC sales were 1.2 million? Didn't find this info in 10 K.
    2 Apr 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    My notes (haven't re-listened yet) say $6.4M in LA tolling sales. And will continue on in '12.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    That income stream is music to my ears.

     

    Helps the company and at the same time provides a good platform for educating new staff.

     

    I was also VERY impressed in TG's mention that NONE, NOT ONE of their sold, flooded batteries had failed. Yes I do understand that the volumes are relatively small but still the QA in the plant must be extremely stringent.

     

    Others might take note of this achievement!
    2 Apr 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    If you read the 10-K and the quarterlies, there's always a disclosure about a single customer accounting for a huge percentage of sales. That's the flooded contract. If you take those percentages of sales for the period you get a flooded sales ramp as follows:

     

    Q1 – $725,000
    Q2 – $1,326,000
    Q3 – $1,804,000
    Q-4 – $2,556,000

     

    That leaves the following balances for PbC and specialty AGM

     

    Q-1 – 311,000
    Q-2 – $374,000
    Q-3 – $294,000
    Q-4 – $243,000
    3 Apr 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Found it amusing that after telling everyone to be careful about phrasing their questions so TG was not forced to say "I can't comment on that", I was the only questioner who got a that for an answer on my question about the individual rated capacity of each of the three production lines.
    2 Apr 2012, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    The handler I spoke with indicated that I would be listen only.

     

    Consequently I hung up to save my pennies to eventually possibly buy a few extra shares.

     

    I did like the call. It must be tough being TG. It was very apparent to me that he was virtually bursting to tell us more but that he was really constrained from "spilling the beans".

     

    I had the initial idea to buy no more than 50 k shares in this stock. My initial hook was a comment by JP on another site related to Rare Earths. One thing led to another and here I am with 120k. I am part of a small investor group which has evolved into a total shareholding of about 350k. The story is very compelling. Frankly I don't know what else to say except that we are all pensioners that all need a good story that will provide comfort for a long time. Fingers crossed!
    2 Apr 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    AB> You would have been in "listener only" mode until the Q&A session started. Then if you wanted to get in line for questions you would have pushed "star 1" on the keypad and they would have put you in the queue to ask questions.
    2 Apr 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Albert,
    Skype is great in these situations.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    If Axion stock was poker game I would be sitting in my seat saying "somebody please raise!"
    2 Apr 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Torque News Axion Story: http://bit.ly/HK6pGW
    2 Apr 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... That TN story is a rather gloomy positive endorsement. Thanks.
    2 Apr 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Not precisely gloomy....but certainly sober and reserved:

     

    "Axion Power looks to be at the center of the action. Question is: Will it become a buyout candidate in 2012?"

     

    A buyout candidate in 2012?

     

    Now *that* would be an entertaining foodfight. I say bring it on! ;)

     

    PS: I can be bought (this year) for six bucks per. I admit it. And I'm sorry. But a man's got to know his limitations. My apologies to the true long-haulers...
    2 Apr 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1176) | Send Message
     
    i can't imagine, after going through all that testing axpw's management would want to sell as they approach break even. that said if someone offered 1 buck a share tomorrow i would unload more than half of my shares.

     

    i have to put money where it works best for me WHILE managing risks. for sure i'm at a buck because i've held for such a short period, but considering volume over the first 2 months of the year i doubt i'm alone.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Man that is tragic. What a cheap floozy... ;)

     

    ps: if it's a buyout you don't get to unload half.... it's all or nuthin'!
    2 Apr 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >tragicslip ... Truth is Axion's management wouldn't. JP once stated that $14 a share would get his attention and might temp the core investors. Short of that ... I don't remember hearing anything close.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1176) | Send Message
     
    i know right. good news: i always sell early. selling at that price pays for my remaining shares and puts cash into my accounts. i can dream.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1176) | Send Message
     
    the CC today convinced me of that. TG sounds invigorated, all their hardest work is behind them (hiring a sales guy gets me here). i'm looking forward to sales data as each quarter closes to measure how "hard"2013 is for break-even.

     

    yes, i realize what a buyout is. i am still pissed buffet stole my BNI shares.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    $14/share x 113 m shares = > $1.582 billion.....Trust me this company could be bought for far less than that. (that didn't include the warrants either)

     

    I don't think you have to worry about a buyout at a price that would disappoint "most" of us. If we grow revenues 300-400% in 2012 and break even in 2013 then the value of AXPW jumps, It will take PbC sales and mkt. acceptance to get there.
    3 Apr 2012, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I think that if the article described Axion as a possible buy-out target then it de-legitimizes the whole article.

     

    There is one thing Axion is not in 2012 and that is a buy-out target.

     

    These guys have worked too hard for too long to sell out now just when things are about to get interesting.

     

    $6? C'mon, people, what happened to "from my cold, dead hands!"?

     

    D
    3 Apr 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    McHattie -- this is a board for INVESTORS, not collectors of rare (or not) securities...
    3 Apr 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Glad I had the opportunity tonight to listen to the call.

     

    First I want all the Axionistas ( private investors) to know that the questions asked were well thought out, relevant, polite, and I thought very well constructed.
    I heard a lot from TG in the Q& A session. Thanks a ton.

     

    Bang, You didn't get us squat. Ask better questions. :-)

     

    To be honest I was shocked at how forthcoming TG was on many issues. NS is a done deal. Simply a small wait time.

     

    The PowerCube is working wonderfully but basically we are using it as a NS lab. It works for both.

     

    New and different applications for the PbC is coming. We didn't imagine all the applications but they are here. We listen. Others want our PbC.

     

    Rosewater is not a flash in the pan. They have there sources of business , we have ours.

     

    BMW is gold. Time will soon be on our side.

     

    300% increase in sales next year. Twice said. Bank on it.

     

    You don't have any idea how many good ideas can incorporate the PbC and like it. When that time comes. We now have the ability to produce all they want.

     

    Bring it on competition. Bring it on.
    2 Apr 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Furturist: Agree with all said, except it's this year, 2012, that TG was speaking about with the 300% to 400% updraft in revenues. Pile that on top of last year's four fold raise in revenues, and suddenly, we have shares in a company whose revenues are exploding, and that's without the PbC contributing...so far.

     

    We get a 300% on top, in 2013, we'll own a stock, a company whose shares should be surging parabolically...just as I expect, pretty sure most of us expect, will happen.

     

    Alas, we do have another "major" dillution coming. But the next dilution almost has to be for raising funds for expansion, rather that this past one, which was literally for survival...to make ends meet.

     

    But this is what upstarts microcaps do. In which Axion leadership has been brilliant.

     

    ####

     

    Congrats to Kentucky!
    3 Apr 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    "Bang, You didn't get us squat. Ask better questions. :-)"

     

    Let's see, the question I asked about carbon sheeting production was JP's number one rated question and answer. I don't get no respect! :>D
    3 Apr 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Actually, it was one of my main questions also. Thanks for trying.
    I still wish we could figure out the AGM capacity of our one line.
    3 Apr 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    You said the 'd' word! It's not a dilution!

     

    The next raise will be with open and acknowledged contracts in hand and will be well above the .35 of the last round.

     

    Yes, I have slight concerns about the next round of financing but nobody said this would be a cake-walk.

     

    I would just say to strap yourselves in for 2012 and 2013 because it's going to be a wild ride.

     

    D
    3 Apr 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Maya > "... the next dilution almost has to be for raising funds for expansion, rather that this past one, which was literally for survival...to make ends meet."

     

    TG said (twice IINM) Axion had sufficient installed capacity to handle not only expected short, but intermediate term demand for PbC electrodes.

     

    CC remarks plus Q&A discussion of capital requirements came across to me as mixed signals.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... I'd prefer to figure it out via net sales with a known backlog and a request for a capital raise, but I remain curious, also. It is one of those things that will never receive a straight-up answer, not should it.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2215) | Send Message
     
    Guys, remember that TG could have an AGM vendor lined up to supply complete PbC batteries using Axion produced electrodes.
    So in-house battery production capacity need not be the limiter of PbC revenue. I believe there is a stockpile of Axion electrodes building in a storage area somewhere, waiting for a signature on a P.O.
    3 Apr 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Yes I meant 2012 as the year for the 300% increase. Sales of 27 Million dollars. Since TG said the improvements to the battery plant last year was an AGM line improvement, I think we can guess where the additional 18 Million in sales is coming from.
    3 Apr 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Was there some inventory build-up on the balance sheet that was unexplained. If so, I missed it.
    I was happy to hear that it was the AGM line that was improved last year. At least that is what I thought I heard.
    3 Apr 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >SHB ... The stated goal of max'in the New Castle capacity before going to outside manufacturing partnerships and and not the least indication of such a thing developing soon is what I'm going on here.
    3 Apr 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    D.Mc,
    "Yes, I have slight concerns about the next round of financing ..."
    ~ I don't. If they dilute by 50%, I double-down! I can comfortably say that because if TG and company are comfortable diluting their stakes by 50%, there isn't a reason in the world that I shouldn't have every penny that I can scrape up invested in those shares. That's the beautiful thing about having management with lots of skin in the game. Once you trust their judgement, you find it very easy to "sit back and enjoy the ride"!
    3 Apr 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    "CC remarks plus Q&A discussion of capital requirements came across to me as mixed signals."
    ~ How so?
    3 Apr 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    I am a very conservative investor, not a troll as some have made me out to be. Having said that we still need to see SALES!! I am more anxious because we have been presented with TG being as excited as ever.

     

    So please take this positively. Lets see where we are a month from now. We should be looking at some real positive things. I never really listened at each word spoken in other cc's. But i am upbeat as long as Vani gets the jobs rolling. ( where was he )

     

    It is nice to say positive things, but breakeven in 2013 also has me concerned. Last trade of the day took some steam out too. Any thoughts on that one??

     

    map
    3 Apr 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Vani could well have been on the video telecon with BMW that was running concurrently. I would think they'd want someone pretty senior there and BMW is, after all, one of Axion's premiere customers at the moment. If I were Vani, and I wasn't on travel, that's where'd I'd put myself.

     

    Sales. Amen my brother.
    It will happen. Keep the faith.
    But yes, that is a day much looked for...
    3 Apr 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    MAP> Think six months from now - not next month. I don't see you as a troll, but your need for immediate results and the nature of an investment in a developmental stage company just don't mix. I am not going to be cute and say you ought to sell, but the call was extremely positive for their stage of development. Worrying about it won't make things go faster. Look at JP. Underwater now for several years and happy as a clam. I'm underwater a ton and bought more shares today. SO did others.

     

    We aren't nuts following some pied piper out of town to our doom. We've carefully watched things develop to the near commercial production stage and like a satellite launch count down is proceeding normally - all systems nominal. Could it blow up in our faces? Not likely, but that's the risk you take when aiming for out of this world returns on an OTC developmental stage company. If I bail I'll let you know first - but don't wait by the phone for me to call, it ain't likely I'm going anywhere soon.
    3 Apr 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    How is the last trade of the day being at the high for the day "taking some steam out"? Please clarify. Thank you.
    3 Apr 2012, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    "Last trade of the day took some steam out too. Any thoughts on that one??"

     

    Based on past, that was a Quercus block that will be sold into market 4/3, since it was after-hours.

     

    Only 20K. At current volumes will have little impact on price action. If volume goes away, ...

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr 2012, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    The real last trade was after-hours $0.405 of 20K.

     

    But regardless, the combination of rising volume and good price throughout the day, with the last in-market trade being at the high, is a big plus.

     

    Some folks don't see the level of detail and may not be able to tell the last trade was an AH trade.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    MAP, AXPW typically has an after hours trade that doesn't match. HTL has the best answer. He thinks it has to do with the market makers shares coming in or adjusting to trades thru the day. Private message HTL and he can give u a quick layman's explanation.
    3 Apr 2012, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Thanks, i do appreciate it.

     

    MAP
    3 Apr 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    BANG

     

    I will admit that when someone spoke to me about this stock they warned me to be patient. However i still had concerns with the direction the company was going.

     

    NS to me might be a breaking point. If thwy have solved their issues as TG said and Axion has done everything they needed to do then i really hope it isn't six months before they get it done.

     

    Am i wrong???
    3 Apr 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I think it will be sooner than six months, but six months is just a safe outside number.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    "last trade of the day took some steam out too. Any thoughts on that one??"
    ~probably not a bad buy for someone. ;-)
    3 Apr 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    "We aren't nuts following some pied piper out of town to our doom."
    ~ ...we hope! ;-)
    3 Apr 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The battery industry is enough to try the patience of Job. If I'd known how hard it was in late 2003, there's a good chance I would have done something else because I'm an 18 to 24 months kind of guy at heart. I've been listening to Axion's quarterly calls for eight years and the one consistency has been quarter after quarter after quarter of solid execution as Axion tries to eat an elephant. Things have never moved forward as quickly as I hoped they would, but the forward momentum keeps building and the challenge at this point is avoiding *the big mistake* that comes from trying to put numbers on the scoreboard too quickly.

     

    Since I write about the storage sector and follow everybody closely I remember Altair Nanotechnologies' *big mistake* in shipping a hundred EV packs to Phoenix Motors that got returned for warranty issues and crushed the stock beyond recovery. I remember Ener1's *big mistake* in trying to rescue Th!nk Motors from its third reorganization. Just recently we've seen another *big mistake* when A123 shipped $50 million of products before discovering that calibration was off on a single machine. It's not clear whether the mistake will be survivable for them.

     

    The point of all this is that bad things happen when good companies try to go too far too fast. Axion's biggest edge has always been Bob Averill. Over the course of his career Bob started three different orthopedic implant companies at the idea stage, took each of them through R&D and commercialization process and grew each of them to a point where an NYSE conglomerate stepped in as buyer. I know several entrepreneurs who've done that once. Bob is the only guy I've ever met who's done it THREE TIMES. He knows what it takes to turn a good idea into a successful product and he's one of the most lovable tyrants I've ever met. The one thing Bob won't do is let Axion make *the big mistake* if it can possibly be avoided.

     

    Automakers like BMW and users like NS understand the critical importance of avoiding *the big mistake* So they test, evaluate and test some more so that when they make a production decision they know it's the right decision. I read lots of hand wringing about how Axion has to *do it now because the market won't wait* It's simply not true. Companies that are destined to fail do so within three or four years of their launch. By the time you get to eight years, particularly eight hard years with a series of challenges that many viewed as insurmountable, the probability of failure becomes insignificant unless management makes *the big mistake* and tries to push something too far or too fast.

     

    I hate the reality that progress seems to come at a grindingly slow pace. I also understand that a grindingly slow pace is built into the industry's DNA. Axion is a survivor and has proven that fact over and over again. In eight years it hasn't made a *big mistake* and every conference call has demonstrated clear progress and accelerating momentum. Today I understand that the PbC's potential is far greater than any of us imagined in 2003. I still wish it would go faster, but I have no doubt about the outcome.
    3 Apr 2012, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Unfortunately for you but fortunately for us we have someone with a solid knowledge of this company. Can you see a break even at 2013??

     

    Thanks
    3 Apr 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Tom Granville earned his stripes over a decade as a management side national labor contract negotiator. He always plays his cards close to the vest and I've never seen him promise anything he didn't believe he could deliver ahead of time and below budget. There's no accounting for the world of delays and risks that are possible when other people control order flow and timing, but Tom won't blow smoke up your skirt to win a popularity contest.
    3 Apr 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    As usual -- outstanding inside track perspective re: "what's taking so long?"

     

    May we get your perspective on a very different matter? It would appear to me that the AXPW "potential" market and potential applications are absolutely massive in quantity (good place to be.) However, do you have the same comfort that AXPW management knows how to triage and be selective as to where limited resources get applied?

     

    I take great comfort in hearing your impressions of how AXPW has avoided "the big mistake" -- even if that demands more patience from investors. But, I would like to hear your opinion/observations of how quickly they appear willing to triage and be selective in the business they pursue. In my experience it takes a lot of backbone and strategic action to turn away "distractions" -- pick the right low lying fruit -- and go full force after the bigger payoffs with your limited resources in the early years.

     

    Thanks in advance for any thoughts you are able to share.
    mj
    3 Apr 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    So far the management team has maintained a laser tight focus on perfecting the PbC technology and manufacturing process first, and avoiding opportunities that will pull limited technical and financial resources away from the core task of technology development.

     

    They're providing PbC batteries in standard configurations to BMW, NS and anybody else who needs the PbC's performance characteristics. As near as I can tell they're not customizing batteries for a particular user or spending a lot of time with potential customers who need hand holding. I know of a couple instances where Axion avoided projects that would have been very attractive from a PR perspective, but a distraction from a product development and human resource allocation standpoint.

     

    So far I've not seen any instances where Axion went haring off on a tangent to chase an application when it should have been focusing on the technology. A small number of very large customers get a huge amount of time and attention, but that's because it takes an elephant to feed a village through the winter and rabbit hunting isn't going to get the job done.

     

    Rosewater is a great example of Axion's focus. Rosewater's principals wanted to go after several high-value markets that Axion saw as attractive but didn't have the manpower to lovingly nurture. Ultimately Axion said "we'll make the product, but you have to deal with the hand holding, marketing and customer service aspects."

     

    For now, distractions are the least of my concerns.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Ironically, its probably crucial to be extra vigilant in protecting the company from the "big mistake" as I am sure the above-referenced companies only recognized their "big mistakes" in the rear-view mirror ...
    3 Apr 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    "Today I understand that the PbC's potential is far greater than any of us imagined in 2003."
    ~ The PbC is an excellent example and prime benefactor of "being in the right place at the right time". In 2003, you could never have imagined that a lowly battery, high tech though it may be, could have this kind of potential because it simply didn't exist. I guess NS would probably have been going through their iterations at that time, but you would never have identified that as a primary target market, and I doubt that S/S was even on anyone's drawing board. In that respect, the pain suffered during those long, hard and very slow initial years will be well rewarded.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I'd rather be lucky than smart.
    4 Apr 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely!!
    5 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    In my heart of hearts I hope that I am both.

     

    In reality the best thing I ever did was to convince a lovely girl from Surrey, England to be my wife. Her "Yes" is better than anything that has happened since. 20 years plus now.

     

    A close second I hope will be having AXPW break above $10. $3 would be nice but $10 would let me thumb my nose at my retirement planner. I LIVE IN HOPE!
    5 Apr 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • aseflong
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    If PbC succeeds in all the applications currently under serious evaluation, $10 is underselling it. $50 may be nearer the mark unless it makes "a big mistake" on its journey there. Even if a new technology comes along it needs to be cost competitive and testing of that new technology will take 5 to 10 years. So $50 in 5 to 10 years is highly probable. This is not a pie in the sky stuff since Axion's business model is akin to Intel's, as JP would like to remind us once in a while.
    12 Apr 2012, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Assuming a P/E ratio of 20, Axion would need a "net profit" of $295 million to reach $50 per share. Of course that assumes Axion does not issue more shares for the expansion required to build enough electrodes to reach this goal. That is standing in some pretty high cotton.

     

    I'm not saying it isn't possible. But it would require the PbC to be a truly disruptive technology that is accepted throughout the world, in many different applications..
    However, I don't disagree with your time frame.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Aseflong - If I may ask, how did you come to find Axion and this blog? I'm trying to get some insight into how people uncover these opportunities. (For the record I found it through JP's articles over a year ago).
    Thanks
    12 Apr 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Now in a market of $120 billons to 2017, I think $ 50.oo is highly proable.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • aseflong
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    If Axion succeeds in the applications being tested, then its revenue increases yoy would make it a growth company. The PE ratios for growth companies are 50+. It all boils down to the big "IFs".
    13 Apr 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    FocalPoint Analytics posted a comment here

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    mentioning another DOE-funded failure, Solar Trust of America (STA).

     

    Says it was the second-largest load ever handed out, IIRC.

     

    Here's an article on it.

     

    http://reut.rs/HT1vH2

     

    The more I see the more I'm (almost) thankful Exide kept all that money.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    One of the points that hasn't been discussed is also very important :
    TG stated
    "we are not just building a battery, we are developing a SYSTEM".

     

    I really liked this strategy, like the PowerCube is made from readily available parts, but is a "plug in" system. Companies & customers like this, they do not have to design a system to make it work.

     

    This may very well be what differentiates AXPW from being just a battery company that has to compete on price of a battery for a car alone. Trust me, auto manufacturers will squeeze the profit out of any one component.

     

    TG is quietly developing an in house portfolio of products that will meet many mkt. demands. At first we had just a battery, probably didn't even know where to use it. Then the PC, now a home PC, and you can bet that he is developing other systems based on their experience. It is slow, but it is a good path.

     

    This story reminds me of John Deere, The company started by one man in a blacksmith shop who built one piece of equipment, a plow. It was very popular and was pulled by mules, not a tractor (they had not been developed yet). Today you have complete lines of products that all work together, Tractors, tillage, Planting, Harvest, Lawn & Garden, etc. Each division has it's own revenue stream and builds on success from the early expansion from a plow, then a tractor, planter, combine .... a lawn mower is just a smaller form of a tractor. In the 1970's their entire new product launch was the creation of a new division called "Consumer Products" (lawn & garden equipment). Dealers, the stock mkt, all thought this was disastrous and a waste of time. They are leaders, not followers, they knew the baby boomers were going to be moving up the housing chain and they wanted to be there. Today that division alone is bigger than the entire company was in the early to mid '70s. AXPW is slowly expanding markets now very similar.. the home PC may not mean much today, but who knows in a few years (1-10) We didn't even know about the PC & grid until 4 months ago. Now we have great expectations without hanging our hat on just the auto & rail business.
    3 Apr 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    What I like about the systems (PC, home PC, & others in development) is that they are NOT 2 -3 years out like auto or the real fruits of rail IF NS does the rebuilds like the 999 for other RR's like they do maintenance or overhauls.
    These products are going to be marketable any time after Sept. of THIS year.
    IMO, This is where the revenue growth and break even come from in 2013.
    3 Apr 2012, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    I don't believe for a minute that "auto" is 2 or 3 years out. IMO, big auto deals close this year and 18 months on the outside. That's entirely speculation on my part, but I think it's well founded.

     

    It could very well be that it will take 2 or 3 years to see the industry embrace the PbC "en masse" and truly realize the full potential of that market, but there is no way I see BMW not placing significant orders until Q2 2014.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Why I say 2 years is this:

     

    1. We are fairly sure it won't be this year, we can't even build them. TG said on the cc: We can build orders for short & medium term with production capacity now.
    2. So maybe in 2013 we get a small order, which would be great.
    3. Every thing you can read says 2015-16 year models are when mass production with Start/Stop is produced.
    4. You will know when anyone, BMW, NS, GM places a mass order....TG will order and install the Gen-3 lines. A lot of them. I think that is a year out. so we'll see. We'll be lucky if NS has two locomotives built out by year end....then probably another year of actual use before mass adoption occurs...
    4 Apr 2012, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Our recent discussion of First National Battery, a subsidiary of JSE-listed Metair (South Africa) producing AGM batteries for BWM made me wonder if there were a very limited introduction site for some model that serve as a testbed. Even considered the notion of AXPW shipping electrodes to that Battery plant as a "proof of concept."

     

    BMW's plant descriptions are here:
    http://bit.ly/HlvHuG

     

    The South African plant:

     

    "Rosslyn Plant
    BMW’s South African plant in Rosslyn (near Pretoria) builds more than 40,000 BMW 3 Series a year, many of which are exported to the USA, Japan, Australia, Africa and the Middle East. Initially conceived as a CKD plant for assembling kits, the Rosslyn Plant completed expansion in 1998, becoming a fully-fledged car production plant firmly integrated within the Group’s production network. Receiving the international ISO 14001 Ecology Certificate in 1999, Rosslyn now guarantees that all BMW Group plants not only offer the highest standard of quality, but also comply in full with the strictest environmental requirements."

     

    Here's a 2009 article on the expansion of that plant: http://bit.ly/HdOTHZ

     

    So this didn't fit the fantasy of an country isolated test-bed, though the 40,000 number certainly does.

     

    BWM 3 Series covers a lot of ground:
    http://bit.ly/HlvHL0

     

    This model mentions "EfficientDynamics""
    http://bit.ly/HdORjb

     

    Not clear if the bottom of this page lists all "EfficientDynamics" models or not: http://bit.ly/HlvGqB
    4 Apr 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    More of the South African plant: http://bit.ly/Hcwakx
    4 Apr 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    I was very encouraged by the statement "our part of the testing is COMPLETED" on at least the NS contract, Military contract, PowerCube & Viridity project.
    This lets sales & marketing focus on just closing these sales and Management and engineers can devote their time to developing the new markets such as oil rigs, home PC and other battery storage markets that will lead to a short time to market and revenues in a year or less.
    3 Apr 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 8888888888888888888888888

     

    New concentrator (unrevised in the header as yet)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    8888888888888888888888888
    3 Apr 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Between 3pm and 9:25pm today, 56 comments on the Axion Concentrators not including deleted posts by TM9. Great group - best single stock investor group anywhere I've ever seen - but very hard to keep up with.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:27 PM Reply Like
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