Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.
-
Instablogged Stocks
Stocks that instabloggers have most recently written about -
Latest Instablog Posts
-
1
A Way To Play DUST Without Getting Dusted
-
2
A Silver Bullet For "Untreatable" Infections.
-
3
Red Mountain Mining Raises Funds For Acceler...
-
4
Wednesday's Moves In Perspective
-
5
Potash West's Dinner Hill Resource Area Gets...
-
1
-
Top Instablogs
See all Top Instablogs »
Axion Power Concentrator 86: Beginning April 4, 2012 Chart For Weighted Moving Average Price And Volume 219 comments
These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
----------------------
Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume: by John Petersen
Last September I wrote an Instablog on my favorite charting method, which ignores day-to-day fluctuations in prices and volumes but tracks the longer term moving averages that I think offer a better view of what's going on in the market. Since it's been a while since I shared the charts I've prepared an updated version through Tuesday's close.
The top set of lines are the 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day moving average closing prices as measured on the left axis. The bottom set of lines are the 10- and 200-day moving average volumes as measured on the right axis.
What I'm seeing in the price lines is a tightening range between the 10- and 20-day moving averages which are both about $0.40 and the 200-day average of $.47. With today's close at $0.45 we're at the 50-day average and I think we may be seeing a break to the upside like we had in February of 2011. The big supply and demand difference I see this time around is that there don't appear to be any big holders who are anxious to liquidate. So if a run starts, I don't see anybody with enough shares in their portfolio to crush the run and turn it around.
What I'm seeing in the bottom lines is a clear reversal of the 10-day average volume to the upside. The volume trough we went through recently was a little shallower than the October-November trough of last year, but not much shallower. The 10-day volume is almost back to the 200-day average and volume trends that start below the 200-day and penetrate up seem to have a lot more strength than volume trends that penetrate down through the 200-day average.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Thanks to John Petersen for providing the summary and chart.
---------------------------
Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
This is a troll free zone. All disruptive comments and AUTHOR of such comments that violate Seeking Alpha's Terms of Use Agreement will be permanently removed and comments will be recorded in a separate Instablog.
Enjoy!
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
Share this Instablog
This post has 219 comments:
-----------------------
What I Like Best about Axion Today
All previous PbC product from Axion needed hundreds of hours of explanation and study by the purchasing company's engineers before they could integrate it into their product. The more the engineer(s) knew about OTHER battery chemistry, the HARDER it was for them to make the mental shift to a Power intensive product like the PbC. Trust me on this, engineers think they understand a device that is "just like the other LA batteries I've dealt with". Except that it isn't. They look at a specification like Wh/kg and frown. Not even as good as regular old LA batteries!
Why should they buy it? Mumble. Lying weasel salesmen.
"One year of cycle testing with special fixtures? Why? It's a LA, AGM battery ferbog's sake."
They WILL make the shift. But if every potential customer goes thru this barrier, Axion management could die of old age before cash flow break even. It's what we have seen for 3+ years now.
Enter the PowerCube. It has a computer controlled energy management system that SHOULD prevent a user from doing significant damage to the 'Cube. Unless, of course, they diddle with the machinery or software. But is should tattle on them if that happens ;-)
The PC is a BLACK BOX. You supply it with energy and then you take energy back out. The buyer/engineer/user does NOT need to understand anything about the PbC vs other battery technologies! Nor should they care!
Peak power; check. Total energy; check.
You cycle it X times at Y kWh/cycle over Z years and the depreciated cost per Whr is C. Oh my! Nice numbers!
It's a system designer's product. Don't drop it or punch a hole in it and it does what it's suppose to. Just read the specs and the Warranty. Connect to power wiring as the attached diagrams show. Let it run its self tests and then call home to Axion to "report in" over the 'net or phone line.
"What's a PbC?" Asks the money guy. Who cares! It stores energy. It's got a good warranty and the PC at Axion is making them money right now. Look at the ROI and sign the papers.
That is why I think the PowerCube will be THE breakthrough product for Axion. The long wait should end this year.
So as price moved up and down, there is sufficient buying interest ATM to keep supply and demand balanced. There is some negotion going on too as we see infrequent injections of lower asks and higher bids.
IMO, this fits the scenario of beginning the consolidation I thought might start around the 3rd day after the move up began.
I'm always comfort4ed when it acts as I expect.
I do feel we'll likely see $0.42 (already saw $0.425), but if the support being seen at this level is any indication, I expect good support at $0.42 as well.
Folks undecided are less averse to buying here than at $0.45/$0.46 as they likely feel less downside risk IMO.
I included my usual speculation and ignorance at no premium to the usual charges,
HardToLove
EDIT: naturally as soon as I wrote that, 10K @ $0.417. Not a biggee, but nevertheless ... Overshoot or something more?
Short article about AXPW from the Pittsburgh Business Times:
http://bit.ly/HeVN3j
Another from Market Watch:
http://bit.ly/H8XYTw
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/HoYURP
That's what I like to see! The $0.417 *ought* to have been nothing more than an overshoot - quite common.
Well, now that I've stuck my foot back where it usually is (in mouth) it'll probably tank on me! :-((
Bid/ask ATM *presents* 10K $0.426 and 60K $0.43, respectively.
HardToLove
"BANG My hotel lost it's internet. Sorry, i cannot take your money. This one is too easy..Trading at 41.7 cents now!!!....I am the least bit insulted, just wondering what is running through your head right now...Plus i do not have a paypal account....so keep your money, looks like at least once it might break 40....easy bet..l The next easy bet was it hitting 46 today !!!!....lol.. MAP"
I'll raise the bet to $10 not below 40 for 1 month. Only a month because I would rather get your money sooner than later. Want a longer period let me know and I'll consider it. I think you will weasel mouth away anyway. Check will be fine. Put your money where your mouth is MAP.
Ghosn says $4-a-gallon gasoline will help sales of Leaf
http://bit.ly/HfrZU6
A solar powered house and car just MIGHT make sense there. Note the qualifier ;-)
That's where CODA is making their launch.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/Hb0OWn
If CPST ever makes the cheaper auto version, space needed is reduced. And weight.
Fewer batteries, smaller on-board gen (size and weight), regen braking = greater range and payload capacity.
HardToLove
It could make good sense in a hybrid taxi cab or heavy urban delivery vehicle. Garbage truck, maybe. Job site vehicle with on-board 40kW power capability for special needs away from power lines.
That would seem to make it a great "in the boonies" work truck. Run it on propane and you could park in inside a building shell while running. Lots of electric tools could run simultaneously on 40kW !
CPST supposedly was in talks with automakers about a reduced lifetime and cost version. Target was 8K hours. I forget the $ target ATM, but it was *way* lower than current costs.
With the new alloys being cheaper and *if* mass-production ever came into being, cost-effective part *might* be might be met.
But it's a really, really big if there.
I don't think it makes a cost-effective solution in *any* land-transport solution below class 5-8 trucks at the current price levels. Lower cost is the needed component. Everything else in terms of TCO is in place.
It makes a good *technical* solution in many areas.
It needs the economies of scale to make it in many technically attractive areas.
MHO,
HardToLove
That''s due to all those missing cam, followers, valves, crankshafts, main journals and webs, pollution control items, ...
HardToLove
edit: just read the related comments above...good stuff all... I bet over time we see some things evolve in these directions...
I don't know how much mass-production would be needed to achieve that though. Direct-touch labor is *very* low as robotics do a lot. DMC (Direct Material Costs) are *reportedly* what has been the issue (although I firmly believe management salaries and other compensation is a major factor right now).
Anyway, if the new materials reduce cost a *lot* and they do get some big ramps in volume, a US$1K-2K price seems achievable.
With the extended lifetime, minimal maintenance, and overall *very* attractive TCO that could bring, they might make it into smaller vehicles.
But my firm belief is that is many years off and NG conversion kits, a la Westport, will be making inroads in the meantime.
I think CPST will miss that "window of opportunity". They will have to make in other areas for the foreseeable future IMO.
MHO,
HardToLove
Hawaii has a renewable portfolio standard which requires that by 2030, 40 percent of the electricity sold by the Hawaiian Electric companies come from renewable sources.
This compares to a $3.91 national average.
In Okinawa, they are installing electric car charging stations. I agree that islands are a likely fit for EV's.
AFAICT, they have reduced their transport application targets to trucks where the cost of the turbines can compete with traditional IC engines. And, thankfully, third parties are doing the real development there.
They can compete in larger vehicles for commercial use - PACCAR (KW and Peterbuilt) have units on the test track now, Wrightspeed is attempting conversions, US 1 has a truck testing, Artisan Systems has a unit running, ...
But even those are some time off. CPST needs to excel in their (now) more traditional applications for the time being.
As to DJ, I've often wondered, in retrospect, if the touting of all the "being in talks with three major automotive manufacturers" we heard for so long was just a red herring. I've come to have less confidence in his "forward guidance" than I used to have, for several reasons.
Regardless, the continued improvement in margins, shipped units, ... says they will be getting to profitability if they will stick to their knitting.
I'm looking to re-enter soon when this current price drop, from their latest capital raise, ends. I expect another sub-$1 price foray.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/vbHfBB
~1.15:1 and no AH trade. I do believe that 19K AH from last night signaled the end of this selling cycle for them.
Could be back in, of course.
MHO,
HardToLove
I am NOT insinuating that they are doing this, I have no idea what they will do.
If you are correct, then they would have sold -+ 320,000 shares this cycle. Just wonder why they would choose that number, or perhaps it is time related?
I suspect that they may also be working towards getting as little loss as possible in doing so.
My guess is "How much do I need right now" and "About how many shares at current prices is that"?
HardToLove
As they had registered to sell 850,000 shares, I was under the impression that they would sell this within a 90 day period. Did I read that wrong? I would think that these high volume days would be a good time frame for them to get rid of a good bit of that if they are sticking with 10% plan, which I thank them for. Guess we will see in next few days if they file new form. All IMHO, and in putting to use all my analytic and evaluative skills, I'm probably still wrong.
metro
... If this is the latest, effective 3/8/12 and approximate date of sale (commences? JP?) 3/15/12.
http://1.usa.gov/wuyHHk
*if* that's the latest and *if* I'm reading it right (still new stuff for me), there's 90 days from 3/15 to finish the sales?
John, HELP!
HardToLove
But the fact is that 90% of all sales and buys are not Quercus.
Includes info on the Exide-Axion grant on pp. 16-19. Unfortunately, no mention of Axion (they are still listed on p. 10 as a grant recipient with Exide, but that is obviously a much less important part of the document).
http://1.usa.gov/HbZ2Ju
I also get a kick out of the fact that the recycling grant to Toxco has only progressed to a concrete pad in a field, but that's another matter entirely.
Middle Eastern and North African money interested in Axion?
I wonder what contacts Vani might have in that region. Shipping containerized PowerCubes along with chinese solar panel arrays as a readymade solution to remote power needs could be a very profitable business in that part of the world.
http://aol.it/Hp1bRg
Stop-start increases fuel efficiency by shutting the engine off when the truck comes to a complete stop. Amenities (radio, gauges, heating or air conditioning, etc.) continue to operate, making the operation transparent to the driver. The engine restarts automatically when the driver releases the brake, allowing seamless acceleration.
Enabling components have been upgraded for heavy-duty operation on models equipped with the stop-start feature."
How much city driving to pick-up truck drivers do?
D
In the city I see a lot of vans, and a lot of commuter cars but not many pick-up trucks.
I see trucks in the burbs doing landscaping and construction. And I used to see a lot of trucks in the country back when I used to live in the mid-west.
But I don't know about trucks in the city.
Maybe I just never noticed.
D
6 years later you can see why we'd need the PbC so we can start furthering the advancements that are/were just waiting for the right battery. The auto engineering is way ahead of the current battery limits; imo.
My point is just that the choice of Ram 1500 as one of the first models to have ss in North America reflects a lack of confidence in the battery.
Please hear me out and I apologize in advance for beating a horse that may or may not already be dead.
I think there are 2 big factors that go into choosing the first models for your ss application:
1) the existing fuel mileage of the model
2) the type of expected driving of the average owner (ie: expected average ss events per mile)
Regarding gas mileage, to save the most fuel you would select a low mileage vehicle which, at 20 mpg for 2012, the Ram 1500 is.
But if Dodge has confidence in the battery their ss uses then they would also want to select a vehicle with a high average ss events per mile (ie: a lot of expected downtown city driving).
I don't think that's the Ram 1500.
I think Dodge selects the Ram 1500 precisely because, while its drivers may live in cities, those cities tend to be sprawling ones and the drivers are suburban and freeway drivers rather than downtown drivers.
I think Dodge puts ss in the Ram 1500 first because they don't have confidence in their AGM battery and they don't actually want frequent ss events.
D
Anyway, I think your identification of the Ram 1500 as an otherwise "low gas-mileage" vehicle (and thus a candidate for SS) probably hits the mark as far as identifying the main selection criterion.
http://bit.ly/HYQORT
Thanks for the post jylejuice. I did not know there was a waterless urinal let alone a hybrid. The things we learn when we google something.
"Product Description
THE BEST WATER FREE URINALS ARE THE URINALS YOU ALREADY HAVE!
HYBRID urinal kit allows building owners and managers to have all the cost savings and environmental benefits of water free urinals, but without the significant up-front cost of tearing-out of existing urinals and the inconvenience caused tenants, at a fraction of the cost of a water free urinal installation, while maintaining existing cleaning procedures. A highly engineered malodor counteractant system controls odors for a pleasant restroom experience.
Locking Flush Valve - Controlled Flushing Unit
Stainless Steel Construction - Long Life
Complementary Fragrances - Ocean Breeze or Citrus Bouquet available
Bio-Active Enzymes - cleans and fights odor causing bacteria with use
Non-Para Block - meets VOC requirements
At the heart the Smart Restroom System is our latest innovation...the SmartValveTM. This lockable, patent pending, flush valve turns most any urinal with a standard or automatic flush mechanism into a water free urinal avoiding costly tear-outs of existing urinals and installation of water free urinals.
Or perhaps a whole new take on "liquid salt" formula batteries...
HTL...is this part of the consolidation ?
As I posted, I thought we'd possibly $0.42 again (saw ... $0.418? 1 trade IIRC) and it would be good if support was found there. This was to start around the third day of the rise, which it did.
Classic symptoms: narrowing price range, reducing volume in a sort of "flat" sideways range.
This is the "catching the breath" phase.
I must say that I'm really pleased to see apparent support a bit above the $0.42. I was hoping that we didn't run out of buyers to fast at this price level.
*If* there's lots of interested folks, they can now gain some comfort that the degree of downside seems reduced and start to edge in.
That's the good scenario. My *hope* is to see a *grind* up begin - nothing with a big flashy move, just "steady as she goes".
MHO,
HardToLove
EDIT: I forgot about today's $0.41 trades, 2 trades totaling 7K at 09:30:02 this A.M. These and the one-off $0.418 we'd seen don't bother me one wit.
CYS!!!
But I trust you, Jon.
He answered that he didnt want to supply a roadmap for competitors, but then went on to say, power cube sales, and hybrid locomotive sales, and...... "a few things we havent discussed yet, but have been working on for awhile". And, he said they should pop within the next few months. I wonder what kind of stuff they are coming up with that hasnt been discussed yet. I think its a bit early for auto, and we sort of have discussed that...oh well, just thinking,,any guesses?
Oh, and there's always the RV and Sailboat folks.. ;)
So it could be oil rigs too.
D
Out friend IINDelco, brave fighter in a world full of trolls, posted something very interesting yesterday:
http://bit.ly/Hj6Vsk
http://bit.ly/Ie6anp
RJ Corman, who bought RailPower Technologies Inc, who developed the early Green Goat locomotives, is working on a "Hybrid GenSet Power Plants for RTG Cranes".
Huge market and a perfect fit for the Power Cube. Maybe they've turned to Axion for help. It would make so much sense.
I noticed they advertise a 'maintenance free battery' but I don't see how that can be if they are constantly cycling a string of lead acid batteries.
I would think that only the PbC or some very expensive NiMH or Li-ion could make such a promise.
Hopefully they've at least had some conversations with Axion.
D
I wonder if the weight of lead batteries might actually have some advantage over lighter and more expensive lithium batteries in this case, as the low mass center of a PowerCube at the base might lend greater stability to the crane as it slings heavy containers up high.
That press release is nearly two years old now. Has there been other news about their EcoPower systems? Does anybody have some notion of the potential sales figures of gantry cranes?
Here is another bit of press about a different company making these EcoPower systems: http://bit.ly/HjW0ia
http://bit.ly/HnltbS
http://bit.ly/HlIwI4
I cannot find more detailed descriptions of their battery systems.
http://bit.ly/IepQY7
They are using AGM batteries from Exide. No battery issues mentioned, however.
AGM batteries, including Axion's PbC, do not have a liquid electrolyte, and should NOT have an equalization charge.
"Maintenance free", of course, says nothing about the useful life, charging rates, and general effectiveness of the battery.
With the size of the loads those sorts of cranes can handle, each could use a *lot* of batteries. Each crane sale might easily equate to batteries in quantities similar to the locomotive requirements.
HardToLove
I also just found this description: http://bit.ly/HjCFT3
See the "Hybrid Translift in Service" sidebox. They use lead acid batteries with a 135hp diesel generator, but no mention of how many batteries or the kWh or performance parameters.
"Taken together, fuel and maintenance savings are US$167,100 per year. The premium for the EH hybrid crane is approximately US$400,000, so it should be recovered after 2.4 years of service."
How would a PowerCube stack up for that price?
The 108 batteries probably cost something in the neighborhood of $30,000.
The fuel savings during the test were 18.2 gallons per hour which works out to 291.2 gallons per two shift day or 72,800 gallons per 250 day work year.
At $3 a gallon for off-road diesel, the $30,000 battery investment returned $220,000 per year in fuel savings.
Those are battery economics even my father would love.
The PbC might yield a bit more in savings and would last a couple of years longer. If the batteries need to be replaced before the 2.4 years not much is gained anyway except for reduced emissions.
Would not the PbC be more effective at capturing that regenerative braking energy?
That implies electric storage on the vehicle to supply the large but intermediate acceleration loads. Regenerative braking is also reasonable if you already have an electric motor ( becomes generator at need) supplying the drive power. Fast charge/discharge (high power) storage batteries are, of course, necessary for regenerative braking.
My point is that even when powered by a hydrogen fuel cell, it makes good sense to have a significant amount of storage on a fork lift. PbC should be a near perfect choice for a "hybrid" fork lift that actually needs some counterweight on it.
I just did a quick Google search and learned that 1 kWh = 2,655,220 ft-lbs of lift, which is almost exactly the energy required to lift a 50,000 pound container 50 feet. If the system has over a hundred kWh of capacity and each cycle uses 1% of that capacity, you're basically back to a stop start regime where an engine off cycle uses 1% to 2% of total battery capacity.
http://bit.ly/I5GDNL
If the PbC is as good as Axion and BMW have reported, it will replace the AGM batteries in many applications. All it will take is a few months of very successful use in a few applications.
The variety of "other applications" that Axion could be working on is almost endless. My favorite would be telecom backup batteries which represent a multi-billion niche in their own right. Have you ever wondered why the hard wired phone system works when the power goes out? Think buildings full of batteries in every city in the country.
I'm inclined to believe it will take a few years of successful use and proof of cycle life before we know the true worth of the PbC, but it's certainly a snowball that will gain mass and momentum as it starts to roll.
Turns out the FCC already has regulations for back up battery power for most all cell towers:
"Verizon reminds investors that the FCC imposes "specific mandates" on wireless carriers including "backup electric power at most cell sites." Therefore, cell towers typically have battery backup arrangements that support operations for two to four hours, depending upon call traffic."
This is indeed a massive potential market:
http://bit.ly/Hjsh8R
Some ports (I think this includes Long Beach) have begun to seriously upgrade their infrastructure so that ships can plug into the grid while docked, but that represents big $$ improvements. I wonder if a smaller port might look at a way to bring a few PowerCubes into the mix as an alternative to beefing up the local part of the grid?
http://bit.ly/I2rVVo
I have always considered this a market that Axion would be competitive in as well.
HardToLove
I recognized his behavior immediately as being how I look when I can't find my specs!
HardToLove
BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) is that PbC, as a new class of device, fills a lot of capability gaps. It will certainly take a while, but I believe it WILL eventually find its way into everywhere it's needed...
I don't yet know how cost compares and/or exactly what other considerations apply (water usage? NG used, ...), but Commscope will be marketing this as one of their product offerings, according to Hydrogenics.
HardToLove
Given a shallow depth of discharge with each cycle, it could have 10X the life of conventional AGM batteries.
Now if the cell towers were powered by renewables like solar and wind, the PbC would be an excellent candidate.
The long haul trucks ,,I think do not offer the same economies as short haul/local delivery, buses. UPS, etc. well, fun to wonder.
http://bit.ly/Hj61k9
If AXPW should come into consideration for inclusion (again?), start limbering up your body in anticipation of handsprings.
Wouldn't want suffering to result from pulled muscles.
HardToLove
Do you think there is a possibility? if so, on what basis?
Under the circumstances, I think I'll plan on staying in couch potato mode until an upgrade to the Amex ($2 minimum bid) or the Nasdaq ($4 minimum bid) is visible on the horizon.
An exchange listing is the only goal we set for Axion in 2003 that hasn't been met. Axion could have an exchange listing immediately if the board was willing to implement a reverse split. While stockholders often whine and moan about reverse splits to maintain an exchange listing, reverse splits to qualify for an exchange listing are usually not seen as a problem.
The lawyer in me might give into temptation and take the easier path, but the investor in me has to love the "REVERSE SPLIT!? We don't need no stinking reverse split!" attitude we heard from TG on the conference call.
The board knows what the Amex and Nasdaq listing requirements are. For two years running they've discussed and rejected the idea of a reverse split in their proxy statement deliberations. Within a few weeks we should know whether the board's resolve will weaken this year.
It's a subtle and indirect statement, but I read the board's inaction as a clear and unequivoval indication that they believe Axion should be a $2 to $4 stock in its own right without any changes in the capital structure. When the guys who know EVERYTHING are that confident, those who like to fret about everything should probably take the clue and relax.
Oh well - I'll have to power up brain-cell # 2 (it's got PbC backup I hope)!
HardToLove
Getting back to the price/share and market cap. With all that Axionistas have heard about test results, longevity, manufacturability, range of applications, the Market Cap is lower than it was 3 years ago. There are more shares now, but the company now is not just locked and loaded, the whole platoon has safety switches off and are tracking targets. All it takes is 1 customer with a repeating order and few of us will be concerned about playing the exchange game with arbitrary and antiquated exchange price levels.
That all changed in the summer of 2009 when the automakers found their way to New Castle and said "come to our training camp now and we'll get you ready for the big leagues faster."
Given a choice between working with the best coaches in the world and learning by doing in the bush leagues, Axion did the smart thing and chose to endure a battery industry equivalent of "The Cruel Tutelage of Pai Mei"
http://bit.ly/HQ4f7q
Almost three years later Axion is lean, mean and ready for combat.
It took weeks to grow from 67 to 68. (If my memory serves me well)
Maybe this is an early indicator of where the stock price is going :-)
Anyway, welcome to the new followers.
Your still in the stone age. We are already up to 76!
metroneanderthal
"Great comprehensive overview of utility perspective...Excellent presentation on ‘real time’ SCE’s – storage activity and evaluations underway...One of the best presentations regarding the benefits of storage for various utility applications."
Director of Marketing, Axion Power International
http://bit.ly/I3dGzC
Wonder who that was?
Thanks WTB!
HardToLove
Makes an Amish go MMmmmm?
That said , the LeadAcid contract may have been ramped up a tad...or not.
It's only a suspicion, but IIRC Axion has engineering and consulting services. I think that some of the activity that has been on-going, like evaluating other manufactures batteries, maybe assisting Norfolk Southern, maybe delivering some batteries to some folks for test, ... might be the source of some of that increase.
The battery contract you mention did also have a "window" of size, so that's certainly a possibility.
I wonder if some of that is seasonal?
It would be good if they were consulting with some potential larger customers.
Fun to think about, horrible to not know! :-))
HardToLove
Other product sales were $310,633 in Q1, $373,862 in Q2, $293,638 in Q3, and $242,912 in Q4.
Service Revenues were $24,000 in Q1, $387,645 in Q2, $0 in Q3, and $48,000 in Q4.
It will be fascinating to see what Q1-12 revenues from flooded batteries are because that will give us a good hint about whether sales will continue to ramp or perhaps flatten out.
I wonder how far in advance the contracts are negotiated, and whether there might have been some "channel stuffing" that will affect us for a while.
Can't imagine we're the low cost producer (not withstanding the upgrade in the production line,) but we may be a "motivated seller."
Thank you for taking the time to do that.
It certainly adds "some color".
IIRC, the toll manufacturing could go as high as $8M or so on the current contract? Assuming there was real demand (not the "channel stuffing" WTB mentioned as possible), I'd say the ramp showed the customer was pleased with the work and financial results obtained.
Combined with TG's statement of continued 300%-400% growth range for revenue, I think the battery sales must be a solid part of that. My thinking is that the many of the other "irons in the fire" aren't yet solid enough to predict that continued revenue ramp.
I'm thinking that toll work is expected to be a nice solid piece going forward, allowing the confidence to state that revenue growth range even if just one or two of the "irons" come to fruition this year.
HardToLove
Effectively, we're amortizing the cost of the lines (and upgrades) with a very low run-rate cost.
If you recall, the plant and lines were bought from the bank for a song.
So there is a good chance that Axion is a low-cost producer.
All based on memory,
HardToLove
Axion's Q-4 run rate on flooded batteries was $10 million per year and the Q on Q ramp rate in 2011 was consistently over 45%. If I'm trying to help build a partner there's no reason I wouldn't also want to continue building its sales as it proved its manufacturing capabilities, particularly if I had an opportunity to handle all the labeling, distribution and customer service and earn something close to my normal margin in the process.
Good points. It also allows East Penn to see what kind of quality control Axion maintains. This would be an indicator of how Axion would maintain quality in a much more sophisticated battery such as the PbC. I read at least one comment where TG made a statement about quality and it was better than (my words, not his) Six Sigma (3.4 or less bad units out of a million).
deep cycle discharge- 2,500 cycles
shallow discharge- 100,000 cycles
Nice with these extra sales, but it only added 0,4 million USD in gross profit.
I know that it is a fine opportunity to train and hire personnel in preparation for larger scale production of PbC. But let us not get carried away.
Or is there something I do not know/understand?
I took that to mean that the lab contract was worth a couple of million to Axion.
The abbreviations and acronyms web site rejected it due to lack of storage capacity, to which he replied "HTHAISTCMABASIICGIYPD?".
HardToLove
I tried to googlea couple of Jon's acronyms, only found one, and then gave up after that. I thought it more similar to Welsh (Cymraeg) than Mongolian.
One day he was cutting rebar and assembling a rebar cage to go inside a 15' concrete lintel. When he finished it after about two hours of work and with everyone waiting on it, it was about 3 feet short. He said in the most convincing and arguable tone "It shrunk." and stuck to that story.
Probably not usual.
http://1.usa.gov/IlTr22
"alleging that a portion of a provision in the Respondent's Open Access Transmission Tariff, Emergency Load Response Program, is unjust, unreasonable, and unduly discriminatory."
Link won't tell you much more that the above line unless you're clever enough to be able to find the actual complaint.
"This filing is accessible on-line at http://www.ferc.gov, using the “eLibrary” link"
The target page has a drop-down menu when you hover over "Documents and Filings" at the top. In there is "eLibrary".
Clicking it takes you here.
http://1.usa.gov/HoIVtM
I've just now clicked it, so haven't started searching yet.
HardToLove
My next task was going to be "Which one?".
Thanks!
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/HndrmQ
The battle seems to be over if an end user can register with two different CSP's as if with two CSP's, i.e. one for ancillary services and with another for the capacity program, payments received from PJM for curtailment could be very different. Wondering what PJM's argument is?.
Nice link for helping to understand demand response, curtailment, and load shifting. It helped me understand the benefits to the many participants involved.
So if PJM can force a customer providing the same service to be paid differently because that customer desires to use the services of two different ISOs, PJM may save a ton of money.
That's what it looks like to me.
HardToLove
I wonder if it's the old resistance of a semi-monopoly trying to resist change too.
"Stultification" is rampant in large long-lived organizations.
HardToLove
"In other words, the customer cannot earn full compensation for the capacity service unless it ties itself to the same CSP for capacity, for energy, and for ancillary services -- even though the capacity CSP has no obligation to represent the customer in markets for energy or ancillary services or even to advise the customer that those markets exist. If the customer desires to work with one CSP that specializes in capacity and a second CSP that specializes in energy and ancillary services, the lesser compensation applies -- even if the customer and both CSPs all agree that the customer would be served best by two CSPs rather than one and all are willing to accept that arrangement"
Why would anyone have two CSP providers ... why not just stay with the the capacity CSP for both?
Are the capacity CSPs the same as the base load generators?
Except that the capacity CSP has no obligation to represent the customer in the energy or ancillary services markets or even advise them that they exist ...
Interesting stuff ...
I can only try to answer one of your questions and I think you already provided what appears to be the answer.
Why would anyone have two CSP providers? "to work with one CSP that specializes in capacity and a second CSP that specializes in energy and ancillary services."
At least this is the conclusion I came to (didn't want to end the sentence with a preposition, but writing "at which I arrived" seemed too stilted.)
metroneanderthal.
Go APC team!
Interesting commentary by Beacon on the implementation of the tariff in the CAISO.
http://bit.ly/HnTacf
I'm glad the event will be in Paris because it's a great destination city. The Istanbul event in 2010 had over 700 participants and I think the ILA may be shooting for 1,000 in Paris. I'm particularly intrigued that Dynamic Charge Acceptance merits its own pre-conference workshop. DCA was an issue that very few people (except Axion stockholders) understood before BMW and Ford featured it as the biggest technical hurdle in the micro hybrid space.
DYNAMIC CHARGE ACCEPTANCE WORKSHOP
I see very interesting and begins to generate other more technical concept of the batteries and leave them as a black box that only serves to start the car. Very beneficial for AXPW which DCA is one of their atrubutos.
"We can react much faster than any other tech on the grid," said Coe. "Assets that can do that balancing better should be paid a premium. Not only does that allow storage to play in the utility space it also recognises the unique value it brings."
"Power management might be one of the more important elements associated with energy storage. We're at the still at the Model T phase but we're progressing to the Ferrari phase - maybe not in cost, but performance."
http://aol.it/IpBJHw
"Coe also said that regulations passed last year by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would favor the acceleration of the energy storage market. FERC's "pay for performance" rule means that independent system operators will compensate energy storage services for provide fast response and performance."
I realize that there needs to be some "worse case" number of deep discharge cycles specified for comparing batteries. But what impact, realistically, does it have on daily operation? That's a rhetorical question; I don't have an answer :-)
Enders Dickenson will be presenting in Session 6 – "Batteries for Renewable and Industrial Applications" and speaking on "Axion PbC batteries in emerging applications: Micro-hybrids, hybrid locomotives and battery energy storage systems."
I will be presenting in Session 1 – "Global Scene for Lead Batteries" and speaking on "Rising to the micro-hybrid challenge."
It was clear from reading the presentations at the Battery Conference that Axion got it right in understanding the recharging problem and fixing it with carbon. Others are playing catch-up and looking for alternative solutions. We all know how long that will take, eve if they come up with something new and better.
What is also interesting is that most of the research comes from Europe and Japan.
Do you have any feeling about how all these presenters will end up "making Axion's case"?
It's looks like more than half the presentations relate to carbon and/or micro-hybrid vehicles.
The future does indeed look bright for the PbC.
D
"Lead-carbon hybrid ultracapacitors for highrate partial-state-of-charge applications" -- from the Indian Institute of Science and NED Energy Ltd.. (In session 2)
"The rising functional demand in the vehicle electrical power system and suitable solutions based on lead-acid technology"--- from our friends at BMW (in session 4)
I am not a patent attorney, but have applied for -- and been granted patents -- on behalf of large financial institutions. Your question requires a far more complex answer than I can provide, but generally I would say if a corporation has competent patent counsel in the first instance and if the market opportunity justifies the expense, additional steps are usually taken to add international patent protection where feasible and economically justified.
Axion (or perhaps JP has some historical perspective) would have to provide the specific answer to your question as to what additional steps have or have not been taken, but the following very general guideposts may be helpful to you in understanding the scope of the question you are asking:
"The rights granted under a United States patent extend only throughout the territory of the United States and have no effect in other countries. Almost every country has its own patent law, and a person desiring a patent in a particular country must make an application for patent in that country, in accordance with that country's requirements. Fortunately, there are several international treaties that aid in applying for international patent protection, including the Paris Convention Treaty and the Patent Cooperation Treaty, otherwise known as the PCT."
http://bit.ly/Ibvf0i
This link includes general descriptions of the type of foreign licenses and international Patent Cooperation Treaties (PCTs) which may come into play.
mj
I'm deeply aware of my limitations and try to avoid patent issues because they're out of my depth, but I figure Axion's been through at least a couple detailed patent reviews in the last couple years and the deals keep closing. That's always a good sign.
http://bit.ly/HpSEKx
I cannot find any specific reference on their website. In their "Future Plans" section they mention "Introducing deep cycle battery in collaboration with Bulgarian Academy of Sciences," which has papers elsewhere about addition of carbon to batteries.
Banerjee, Shukla, et al., have this review paper I found on the web: "Electrical-energy storage in hybrid ultracapacitors" http://bit.ly/IiuINJ
http://bit.ly/IfyeXU
I haven't found anything that clearly says the transaction has closed.
I would say they are just another low labor cost LA battery producer.
The pictures show lots of manual labor involved in the production.
US patents ONLY cover US territory. That means that it allows the patent holder to (legally) prevent others from commercially manufacturing or selling the contents of the patent in the US.
Even in the EU, patent protection only applies to the country of issue. There is some confusing beaurocracy that does help to simply filing and priority dates, but the bottom line is that each country only issues protection (for manufacturing and sales) within that country. It's common to file in Germany and maybe a manufacturing hub to grab a large portion of the market and to skip other countries. As it costs tens of thousands of dollars to file and maintain each patent (not to mention legal fees) often it's simply not worth the expense for small companies to grab for wide coverage. They're bound to make additional improvements that can be kept as trade secrets until (or even after) money for more comprehensive protection starts rolling in.
In other words, if Axion only has US patents, a Chinese vendor can legally sell copies in any other country.
If I remember tomorrow, I'll check international filing status of all the patents mentioned in the annual report.
http://bit.ly/HoK9Er
I'm curious but what would you expect the data to show? I would expect that the PbC would maintain its charge acceptance up to the near life end. I would expect it to recharge just as quickly in its old age as when it was younger. I say this because the string equalization factor mentioned in string testing, leads me to believe that the PbC internally maintains its charge acceptance properties very well. No reason to believe it wouldn't maintain its discharge profile either.
http://bit.ly/IebI1O
Where optimized charge of 100 amps can be maintained for about 5 years and then slowly tapers off for several years, and where charge time is maintained at about 30 seconds for 6 years and then increases slowly to 50 seconds at end of 100,000 cycles, or about 9 years.
Sandia also provided data on the Ultrabattery in comparing it with lead acid.
http://bit.ly/rT4uFO
I think one can extrapolate from the Sandia numbers through comparing it with the numbers from the table that appeared in the header a few concentrators ago (Pbc vs lead acid),
http://seekingalpha.co...
and come to a reasonable conclusion that the Ultrabattery is a half step between the PbC and lead acid. However, the testing protocols are not the same, but both the Ultrabattery and the PbC are compared against a common demoninator.
It appears through the white paper that I linked in my previous message, that PbC would compare favorably with Li-on, however, Li-on would have the advantage where weight and size are an issue, although PbC would have a cost advantage where weight and size are not important. JP has already written this on various occasions as well as stated that the Ultrabattery is a half step. My take is the Ultrabattery is not a good enough half step in start/stop applications, which was one of my fears. I just do this to get my mind around the different chemistry and how it compares with my favorite battery brand..
And even though JP has stated the above before, I just kind of like to research and compare the numbers me self (sic) as I can remember it better and my memory is about like the charge acceptance for a VRLA battery after several months of cycling - a bad battery geek joke.
It's almost impossible to squeeze more than three complete charge-discharge cycles into a 24 hour day. So running a battery through 2,500 complete cycles takes a couple years and when you're finished with the test all you can really say is "pre-commercial prototypes we built in late 2009 survived 2,500 cycles."
The PbC has improved a lot since the pre-commercial prototype days, but it will take a couple more years of testing to hang a definitive number on that improvement. By then, we could easily be looking at a situation where the 2014 version of the PbC is significantly better than the 2012 version.
You see a very similar problem with automaker and end-user test protocols because one of the things they all do is "test through failure." When the darned battery won't cooperate and fail in a *reasonable length of time* testing to failure can drag on and on.
The areas where improvements are most important are materials science and manufacturing methods.
Getting the carbon sheeting to an automated single roll process was critical because we started with a process that resembled a French bakery where the carbon, like croissant dough, was put through a roller, folded and put back through the roller again. In the early days it took up to 40 passes. The labor costs were ghastly. Getting the sheeting down to *mix, extrude, roll and done* probably took 80 to 90 percent of the labor out of the electrode assemblies.
Next on my hit list would be finding a cheaper way to protect the current collector from a sulfuric acid bath. The current design uses graphene sheeting, an electrically conductive gasket material, as a corrosion barrier. If they can find a cheaper but equally effective way to protect the current collector from the electrolyte, another big cost element could be taken out of the process and many of the current manufacturing steps that focus on getting good seals on the corrosion barrier could be eliminated.
From a materials balance perspective, the PbC replaces a whole lot of lead with an equal volume of carbon and reduces battery weight by ±30% in the process. Even though a pound of carbon is more expensive than a pound of lead, the carbon weight added is only 5% to 10% of the lead weight removed, so you can pay a lot more per pound for the carbon and keep the relative cost balance.
I'm sure they'll keep refining the PbC chemistry and nibbling at the edges, but the biggest gains will come from materials cost reductions.
For long life, a LA needs to have double the capacity to have decent life. The robustness is that for a few times it can be highly discharged and still survive. The PbC, with a reported 2500 100% discharge cycle life, can realistically be sized at almost half the capacity, and stil provide good service. (Almost half because it is always good to have some reserve).
Conversely, if the specs (kwhr) are kept the same, the very strong 100% discharge rating means there is an extremely low likelihood of premature failure due to user abuse.
I am not convinced yet a true 100% discharge over 2500 cycles is real - but even 2500 cycles at 95% is fantastically beneficial.
Thanks for you thoughts.
metroneanderthal
I get stuff suggesting that a component has been removed.
===============
<Error><Code&... has expired</Message>...
===============
Maybe there's a newer link now?
HardToLove
this should fix the link. thanks htl
HardToLove
Since I can't add a copy to a PM I will need the e-mail address of the AxionPowerHost.
Happy Easter all.
But then I realized - where would the wings go? - they really need to make it helicopter/car if you're going to be able to hop over bottlenecked traffic.
If it ain't VTOL, it's not a Flying Car :-)
http://www.moller.com
http://bit.ly/HkYBth
http://bit.ly/HzfUt0
http://bit.ly/pCOlD3
Fresh new concentrator for the new week featuring JP's Weighted Moving Average Price and Chart.
Look for Futurist's new article, "What a 300% Revenue Gain Really Means" later this week.
http://bit.ly/HpsJT1
----------------------
Latest Followers
Latest Comments
Most Commented
Posts by Themes