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  • Axion Power Concentrator 86: Beginning April 4, 2012 Chart For Weighted Moving Average Price And Volume 219 comments
    Apr 24, 2012 1:09 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    ----------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume: by John Petersen

    Last September I wrote an Instablog on my favorite charting method, which ignores day-to-day fluctuations in prices and volumes but tracks the longer term moving averages that I think offer a better view of what's going on in the market. Since it's been a while since I shared the charts I've prepared an updated version through Tuesday's close.

    The top set of lines are the 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day moving average closing prices as measured on the left axis. The bottom set of lines are the 10- and 200-day moving average volumes as measured on the right axis.

    What I'm seeing in the price lines is a tightening range between the 10- and 20-day moving averages which are both about $0.40 and the 200-day average of $.47. With today's close at $0.45 we're at the 50-day average and I think we may be seeing a break to the upside like we had in February of 2011. The big supply and demand difference I see this time around is that there don't appear to be any big holders who are anxious to liquidate. So if a run starts, I don't see anybody with enough shares in their portfolio to crush the run and turn it around.

    What I'm seeing in the bottom lines is a clear reversal of the 10-day average volume to the upside. The volume trough we went through recently was a little shallower than the October-November trough of last year, but not much shallower. The 10-day volume is almost back to the 200-day average and volume trends that start below the 200-day and penetrate up seem to have a lot more strength than volume trends that penetrate down through the 200-day average.
    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the summary and chart.

    ---------------------------
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    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (219)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent comment from Silliconhillbilly with a bunch of likes
    -----------------------
    What I Like Best about Axion Today

     

    All previous PbC product from Axion needed hundreds of hours of explanation and study by the purchasing company's engineers before they could integrate it into their product. The more the engineer(s) knew about OTHER battery chemistry, the HARDER it was for them to make the mental shift to a Power intensive product like the PbC. Trust me on this, engineers think they understand a device that is "just like the other LA batteries I've dealt with". Except that it isn't. They look at a specification like Wh/kg and frown. Not even as good as regular old LA batteries!

     

    Why should they buy it? Mumble. Lying weasel salesmen.

     

    "One year of cycle testing with special fixtures? Why? It's a LA, AGM battery ferbog's sake."

     

    They WILL make the shift. But if every potential customer goes thru this barrier, Axion management could die of old age before cash flow break even. It's what we have seen for 3+ years now.

     

    Enter the PowerCube. It has a computer controlled energy management system that SHOULD prevent a user from doing significant damage to the 'Cube. Unless, of course, they diddle with the machinery or software. But is should tattle on them if that happens ;-)

     

    The PC is a BLACK BOX. You supply it with energy and then you take energy back out. The buyer/engineer/user does NOT need to understand anything about the PbC vs other battery technologies! Nor should they care!
    Peak power; check. Total energy; check.
    You cycle it X times at Y kWh/cycle over Z years and the depreciated cost per Whr is C. Oh my! Nice numbers!

     

    It's a system designer's product. Don't drop it or punch a hole in it and it does what it's suppose to. Just read the specs and the Warranty. Connect to power wiring as the attached diagrams show. Let it run its self tests and then call home to Axion to "report in" over the 'net or phone line.

     

    "What's a PbC?" Asks the money guy. Who cares! It stores energy. It's got a good warranty and the PC at Axion is making them money right now. Look at the ROI and sign the papers.

     

    That is why I think the PowerCube will be THE breakthrough product for Axion. The long wait should end this year.
    4 Apr 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Looking forward to the discussion on JP's Weighted moving average price and volume chart from the TA guru's.
    4 Apr 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinkin Tony is a huge investor in Tesla or Lithium battery companies.
    4 Apr 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    I think that Tony and all his iterations will continue to be reported for abuse as soon as I see them.
    4 Apr 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the .35 cent flippers are hard at work this AM. Good riddance if that's the case.
    4 Apr 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, looks similar--determined selling thru AUTO. Would be a bit disappointing if the selling was from flippers then or now. Not exactly the long-term holders that we'd prefer.
    4 Apr 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Look at the bright side: as of 12:20 EDT ADVFN "buys" 146,876 and "sells" 139,255.

     

    So as price moved up and down, there is sufficient buying interest ATM to keep supply and demand balanced. There is some negotion going on too as we see infrequent injections of lower asks and higher bids.

     

    IMO, this fits the scenario of beginning the consolidation I thought might start around the 3rd day after the move up began.

     

    I'm always comfort4ed when it acts as I expect.

     

    I do feel we'll likely see $0.42 (already saw $0.425), but if the support being seen at this level is any indication, I expect good support at $0.42 as well.

     

    Folks undecided are less averse to buying here than at $0.45/$0.46 as they likely feel less downside risk IMO.

     

    I included my usual speculation and ignorance at no premium to the usual charges,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: naturally as soon as I wrote that, 10K @ $0.417. Not a biggee, but nevertheless ... Overshoot or something more?
    4 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    (From a little lunchtime surfing.)

     

    Short article about AXPW from the Pittsburgh Business Times:

     

    http://bit.ly/HeVN3j

     

    Another from Market Watch:

     

    http://bit.ly/H8XYTw
    4 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Well, a little PR from Marketwatch and the others can't hurt the cause.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Hey, hey! We even made a blurb in yesterday's Pittsburgh Post Gazette (the city's largest newspaper).

     

    http://bit.ly/HoYURP
    4 Apr 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Hah! Since the $0.417 or 10K, 3 trades of totaling 43,599 shares at $0.424 (8,599)/$0.425 (35K).

     

    That's what I like to see! The $0.417 *ought* to have been nothing more than an overshoot - quite common.

     

    Well, now that I've stuck my foot back where it usually is (in mouth) it'll probably tank on me! :-((

     

    Bid/ask ATM *presents* 10K $0.426 and 60K $0.43, respectively.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    MAP> Your comment APC 85:

     

    "BANG My hotel lost it's internet. Sorry, i cannot take your money. This one is too easy..Trading at 41.7 cents now!!!....I am the least bit insulted, just wondering what is running through your head right now...Plus i do not have a paypal account....so keep your money, looks like at least once it might break 40....easy bet..l The next easy bet was it hitting 46 today !!!!....lol.. MAP"

     

    I'll raise the bet to $10 not below 40 for 1 month. Only a month because I would rather get your money sooner than later. Want a longer period let me know and I'll consider it. I think you will weasel mouth away anyway. Check will be fine. Put your money where your mouth is MAP.
    4 Apr 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Buy some glasses MAP - I didn't offer a bet on .46, I speculated it would run in the .44 to .46 range today and it didn't although the high was .4549 - dang close. I was looking at the late surge with rising volume and MACD at the close yesterday. So some knuckleheads decided to dump all they could in the .42 to .43 range. What do I care? Like I said, good riddance to them.
    4 Apr 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I obviously meant .40 so you have no excuses to run.
    4 Apr 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    that was a long intermission in trading
    4 Apr 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    Nissan exec: Electric cars will succeed in U.S.
    Ghosn says $4-a-gallon gasoline will help sales of Leaf

     

    http://bit.ly/HfrZU6
    4 Apr 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    A bohemian 20-something was later quoted saying to Ghosn, "Dude, what are you on? Because I want some."
    4 Apr 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    The only place in the US where electric cars might prosper is in Hawaii. Distances you need to drive are short and the cost of gasoline is high. Although I havn't actually checked the price recently.

     

    A solar powered house and car just MIGHT make sense there. Note the qualifier ;-)
    4 Apr 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Los Angeles metro area too: proper urbanization, attitude, money, government support, tax incentives beyond Federal, ...

     

    That's where CODA is making their launch.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Of course in Hawaii you'd be swapping gasoline from oil for electricity from oil, which is about as futile a gesture as I can imagine.

     

    http://bit.ly/Hb0OWn
    4 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Call me crazy, but I still want to see a propane / PbC Plug-in series-hybrid compact pickup truck.. I figure 10KWh of PbC under the bed, 20gal propane tank snugged up to the cab, maybe 25 miles range on electric, 300 overall.... probably not stellar acceleration, but still able to haul a few 4x8 sheets of plywood, two oxygen thieves, a cooler, and some other stuff...even sport a 110V outlet for the ol' laptop. The only big question is, how much will 10KWh of PbCs weigh? That's the show stopper. Half a ton? Finding the cubic feet shouldn't be a problem under the bed. So, is it doable? PbC doesn't face the material constraints of Li-ion, is fully recyclable, and won't cost that much.... maybe $3000 for the vehicle pack?
    4 Apr 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    I think since you include on-board generation you should reduce the KwH need and add in regen braking.

     

    If CPST ever makes the cheaper auto version, space needed is reduced. And weight.

     

    Fewer batteries, smaller on-board gen (size and weight), regen braking = greater range and payload capacity.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Oahu has several small floating nuclear reactors at any given time. They should build a nice big new one somewhere on a safe piece of ground... ;)
    4 Apr 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    HTL: The CPST microturbine generator is a great product and much more efficient than an automotive piston engine. BUT, it needs to be used at a very high duty cycle to be cost effective. An auto size version would cost around $40k. Not cost effective in a typical consumer car.

     

    It could make good sense in a hybrid taxi cab or heavy urban delivery vehicle. Garbage truck, maybe. Job site vehicle with on-board 40kW power capability for special needs away from power lines.
    That would seem to make it a great "in the boonies" work truck. Run it on propane and you could park in inside a building shell while running. Lots of electric tools could run simultaneously on 40kW !
    4 Apr 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    I automatically assume regen braking. Can't imagine any hybrid beyond micro without it. And Capstone yes please, but the cost and would have to be right... Obviously do whatever can be done to make the thing lighter, but keep the cost down so it might actually sell. PbC is the key there! ;)
    4 Apr 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Long ago and far away ...

     

    CPST supposedly was in talks with automakers about a reduced lifetime and cost version. Target was 8K hours. I forget the $ target ATM, but it was *way* lower than current costs.

     

    With the new alloys being cheaper and *if* mass-production ever came into being, cost-effective part *might* be might be met.

     

    But it's a really, really big if there.

     

    I don't think it makes a cost-effective solution in *any* land-transport solution below class 5-8 trucks at the current price levels. Lower cost is the needed component. Everything else in terms of TCO is in place.

     

    It makes a good *technical* solution in many areas.

     

    It needs the economies of scale to make it in many technically attractive areas.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    CPST MTs weigh less than standard IC engines of similar power.

     

    That''s due to all those missing cam, followers, valves, crankshafts, main journals and webs, pollution control items, ...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I have some experience with gas-turbine engines (as an operator)...and nothing beats them for Power to Weight ratio, though fuel consumption is often a big tradeoff. As well as cost. If CPST could sell a 30KW microturbine for something like $5K, then I bet they could find their way into passenger vehicles... if it's more like three times that, then not so much...

     

    edit: just read the related comments above...good stuff all... I bet over time we see some things evolve in these directions...
    4 Apr 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Langford Engineering's "Whisper", 80-100 MPG on diesel, that they've had for a couple years has a target price (with economies of scale) of 1K British Pounds, ~ USD$1,500?

     

    I don't know how much mass-production would be needed to achieve that though. Direct-touch labor is *very* low as robotics do a lot. DMC (Direct Material Costs) are *reportedly* what has been the issue (although I firmly believe management salaries and other compensation is a major factor right now).

     

    Anyway, if the new materials reduce cost a *lot* and they do get some big ramps in volume, a US$1K-2K price seems achievable.

     

    With the extended lifetime, minimal maintenance, and overall *very* attractive TCO that could bring, they might make it into smaller vehicles.

     

    But my firm belief is that is many years off and NG conversion kits, a la Westport, will be making inroads in the meantime.

     

    I think CPST will miss that "window of opportunity". They will have to make in other areas for the foreseeable future IMO.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Propane always makes me uncomfortable, kind of like sitting on a bomb. Drove a company pickup that was propane and what a pain in the petoot to fill the tank.
    4 Apr 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I haven't followed CPST for some time now, but DJ used to rub me the wrong way with predicting automotive or trucking contracts that I think now two or three years later have still not come true. If CPST can't figure out a way to make a cheap enough product, I don't know how it will ever succeed long term. Maybe the C-370 is about done ...
    4 Apr 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    In 2011, 12.1% of Hawaiian Electric companies’ sales were from renewable sources, up from about 10% in 2010. This included energy from renewable resources such as wind, solar, waste-to-energy, geothermal, hydro and biofuels.
    Hawaii has a renewable portfolio standard which requires that by 2030, 40 percent of the electricity sold by the Hawaiian Electric companies come from renewable sources.
    4 Apr 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    According to Hawaiigasprices.com, current state average for a gallon is $4.59.
    This compares to a $3.91 national average.

     

    In Okinawa, they are installing electric car charging stations. I agree that islands are a likely fit for EV's.
    4 Apr 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: The C-250 and derived C-370 s/b about one more year out, if they are on schedule for the austinetic alloys, before they get some units into testing.

     

    AFAICT, they have reduced their transport application targets to trucks where the cost of the turbines can compete with traditional IC engines. And, thankfully, third parties are doing the real development there.

     

    They can compete in larger vehicles for commercial use - PACCAR (KW and Peterbuilt) have units on the test track now, Wrightspeed is attempting conversions, US 1 has a truck testing, Artisan Systems has a unit running, ...

     

    But even those are some time off. CPST needs to excel in their (now) more traditional applications for the time being.

     

    As to DJ, I've often wondered, in retrospect, if the touting of all the "being in talks with three major automotive manufacturers" we heard for so long was just a red herring. I've come to have less confidence in his "forward guidance" than I used to have, for several reasons.

     

    Regardless, the continued improvement in margins, shipped units, ... says they will be getting to profitability if they will stick to their knitting.

     

    I'm looking to re-enter soon when this current price drop, from their latest capital raise, ends. I expect another sub-$1 price foray.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2012, 03:52 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    The 30HT is rated 500 whr and weighs 73 lbs, so 20 batteries is 1460 lbs, plus another 100 or so for cabling, supports, etc.

     

    http://bit.ly/vbHfBB
    5 Apr 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    a couple more decent volume days and Quercus will be over half finished, that is, if they were in the market today and over the next few days.
    4 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Quercus was in today. I haven't drilled down yet, but the buy:sell was too well balanced, if past is an indicator. 261,776 and 228,255 for buy and sell respectively. IIRC, most of the time it's not so well balanced and leans a bit towards the sell side.

     

    ~1.15:1 and no AH trade. I do believe that 19K AH from last night signaled the end of this selling cycle for them.

     

    Could be back in, of course.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    It would be interesting IF Quercus quit selling here and held the 2-2.5m shares for the long haul.
    I am NOT insinuating that they are doing this, I have no idea what they will do.
    4 Apr 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    HtL - like PbC

     

    If you are correct, then they would have sold -+ 320,000 shares this cycle. Just wonder why they would choose that number, or perhaps it is time related?
    4 Apr 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    From what JP has posted, there's two influences: restrictions per quarter on how much they are allowed to sell and the needs of funding for Quercus' other investments.

     

    I suspect that they may also be working towards getting as little loss as possible in doing so.

     

    My guess is "How much do I need right now" and "About how many shares at current prices is that"?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    As they had registered to sell 850,000 shares, I was under the impression that they would sell this within a 90 day period. Did I read that wrong? I would think that these high volume days would be a good time frame for them to get rid of a good bit of that if they are sticking with 10% plan, which I thank them for. Guess we will see in next few days if they file new form. All IMHO, and in putting to use all my analytic and evaluative skills, I'm probably still wrong.
    metro
    4 Apr 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, you are right. I don't recall the latest registration date ATM.

     

    ... If this is the latest, effective 3/8/12 and approximate date of sale (commences? JP?) 3/15/12.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/wuyHHk

     

    *if* that's the latest and *if* I'm reading it right (still new stuff for me), there's 90 days from 3/15 to finish the sales?

     

    John, HELP!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    It is interesting to consider what will happen if Quercus stops selling.
    But the fact is that 90% of all sales and buys are not Quercus.
    4 Apr 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I suspect it might be some of the folks that boarded the train in Feb. I would prefer they sold now while we are waiting for good things to happen. I am looking forward to resuming the action we had in Jan when ever the "softies" get done...
    4 Apr 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    FY 2011 Annual Progress Report on American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (published Feb. 14 2012).

     

    Includes info on the Exide-Axion grant on pp. 16-19. Unfortunately, no mention of Axion (they are still listed on p. 10 as a grant recipient with Exide, but that is obviously a much less important part of the document).

     

    http://1.usa.gov/HbZ2Ju
    5 Apr 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    It does surprise me, however, that trivialities like the dissolution of the JCI-Saft joint venture and the bankruptcy of Ener1 didn't even merit a passing mention. While the DOE couldn't have predicted A123's defect problems when the report issued, I think it's more than a bit tragic when the #1, #2 and #5 projects have clear business difficulties and the #7 project has magically morphed into Exide without Axion.

     

    I also get a kick out of the fact that the recycling grant to Toxco has only progressed to a concrete pad in a field, but that's another matter entirely.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Hg2Vc4

     

    Middle Eastern and North African money interested in Axion?
    5 Apr 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    It's interesting that it showed up at all, but it seems the link is a teaser wanting $250 for the full report. I didn't try to go past the second link, which had the same info as the first except the window to pay.
    5 Apr 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    Of course, the BMW African battery announcement could have a connection here too? thoughts after DD anyone?
    5 Apr 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The information is both inaccurate and dated, so it looks like they're just trying to sell reports.
    5 Apr 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    The arid regions of MENA with oil wealth to spend would be an ideal market for a combination of PowerCube and solar panels. PowerCubes might be of interest both in the lucrative urban residential markets and in the oil extraction industry.

     

    I wonder what contacts Vani might have in that region. Shipping containerized PowerCubes along with chinese solar panel arrays as a readymade solution to remote power needs could be a very profitable business in that part of the world.
    5 Apr 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    SM, you may be correct, and I would expect that next year that is very likely with the new Home PC debut in Sept. Solar Array's would be a logical next step in some form & size.
    5 Apr 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of PowerCubes and solar panel arrays, has anyone heard anything with regard to the two solar trees in Axion's parking lot? It was something of a big deal when they were installed, but they weren't even mentioned in the CC. Though one might assume that part of the allure of coming to see the PowerCube in action is one could see how it works with the solar trees.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Conversation at my house...."It was only a few more shares dear..." ;>)
    5 Apr 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    You'll make her very happy later. You can buy with impunity at this level if TG wasn't on a pipe during the conference call!
    5 Apr 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The 2013 Ram 1500 pickup will come with standard stop-start

     

    http://aol.it/Hp1bRg
    5 Apr 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    "Adding to industry firsts in a pickup truck is the application of stop-start, another fuel saving feature available on select 2013 Ram 1500 models. This new system improves fuel economy by up to 3.3 percent, an increase of about one mile-per-gallon to the truck's city drive cycle.

     

    Stop-start increases fuel efficiency by shutting the engine off when the truck comes to a complete stop. Amenities (radio, gauges, heating or air conditioning, etc.) continue to operate, making the operation transparent to the driver. The engine restarts automatically when the driver releases the brake, allowing seamless acceleration.

     

    Enabling components have been upgraded for heavy-duty operation on models equipped with the stop-start feature."
    5 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    A pick-up truck is an odd choice for stop-start if you really want it to work and save fuel.

     

    How much city driving to pick-up truck drivers do?

     

    D
    5 Apr 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    a lot more trucks in the city than the country
    5 Apr 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Is that true, LT? Emprically verifiable? It runs contrary to my assumption but I could be wrong.

     

    In the city I see a lot of vans, and a lot of commuter cars but not many pick-up trucks.

     

    I see trucks in the burbs doing landscaping and construction. And I used to see a lot of trucks in the country back when I used to live in the mid-west.

     

    But I don't know about trucks in the city.

     

    Maybe I just never noticed.

     

    D
    5 Apr 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    Farmers are only 2% of the population, yes there are more in the suburbs, but in many states there are tons in the city or outskirts who really are not farmers.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >D. McHattie ... It is true in Dallas (and most of Texas). Pickups, Suburbans and such are, at minimum, equal to the number of autos, if not more numerous. I don't know for how many years it stands but the Ford F-150 has been the largest selling vehicle in the state month in, month out. Followed by the Chevy Silverado. Then it gets into SUVs flopping back & forth with some actual auto nameplate.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    In much of the South and West a pickup truck, particularly a club cab, is considered a family car. According to the EIA, US passenger car sales last year were 6,665,800 vehicles. Light truck sales were 5,515,000 vehicles. See Table 57 at this link for all the detail you'd ever want. – http://bit.ly/Hh6eQa
    5 Apr 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Not sure what is "first" about it. Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra were out in the 2000's. I don't think they sold many, though. GM was given a pretty hard time about adding a few miles a gallon to pickups and Saturn SUV's. The company said then that their start-stop system could be put in for a few hundred dollars and could save more total fuel than full hybrids but belong more widely adopted. Same story, but this time people are listening.
    5 Apr 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The Sierra and Silverado were mild hybrids, rather than micro hybrids.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3624) | Send Message
     
    Yup those Vue Green Lines weren't too bad. I actually got 40mpg on 50 mile trip in one of them and this was in 2006 (before the style redesign). I drove 55-65mph and even some uphills involved on highway 5. As I remember those cars also came in a lot with battery issues.

     

    6 years later you can see why we'd need the PbC so we can start furthering the advancements that are/were just waiting for the right battery. The auto engineering is way ahead of the current battery limits; imo.
    6 Apr 2012, 03:46 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Don't get me wrong, I think all vehicles should have stop-start.

     

    My point is just that the choice of Ram 1500 as one of the first models to have ss in North America reflects a lack of confidence in the battery.

     

    Please hear me out and I apologize in advance for beating a horse that may or may not already be dead.

     

    I think there are 2 big factors that go into choosing the first models for your ss application:

     

    1) the existing fuel mileage of the model
    2) the type of expected driving of the average owner (ie: expected average ss events per mile)

     

    Regarding gas mileage, to save the most fuel you would select a low mileage vehicle which, at 20 mpg for 2012, the Ram 1500 is.

     

    But if Dodge has confidence in the battery their ss uses then they would also want to select a vehicle with a high average ss events per mile (ie: a lot of expected downtown city driving).

     

    I don't think that's the Ram 1500.

     

    I think Dodge selects the Ram 1500 precisely because, while its drivers may live in cities, those cities tend to be sprawling ones and the drivers are suburban and freeway drivers rather than downtown drivers.

     

    I think Dodge puts ss in the Ram 1500 first because they don't have confidence in their AGM battery and they don't actually want frequent ss events.

     

    D
    6 Apr 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    While the overall fleet may predominantly be in (semi-)rural areas, I see a great many pick-up trucks in service as trade vehicles in cities around here (i.e. NW Florida). Perhaps that is just a southern thing?

     

    Anyway, I think your identification of the Ram 1500 as an otherwise "low gas-mileage" vehicle (and thus a candidate for SS) probably hits the mark as far as identifying the main selection criterion.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    After reading for months about hybrid locomotives and hybrid cars, saw today a hybrid urinal. I had never seen one before, at least that is what the sign claimed it was. IIRC this is not one of Axion's core marketing areas.
    5 Apr 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Definitely not an Axion product:

     

    http://bit.ly/HYQORT
    5 Apr 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I'll bite - what is it?
    5 Apr 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I believe that is a regular flush valve urinal that has been converted to a waterless urinal. Thereby making it a hybrid urinal.

     

    Thanks for the post jylejuice. I did not know there was a waterless urinal let alone a hybrid. The things we learn when we google something.

     

    "Product Description
    THE BEST WATER FREE URINALS ARE THE URINALS YOU ALREADY HAVE!

     

    HYBRID urinal kit allows building owners and managers to have all the cost savings and environmental benefits of water free urinals, but without the significant up-front cost of tearing-out of existing urinals and the inconvenience caused tenants, at a fraction of the cost of a water free urinal installation, while maintaining existing cleaning procedures. A highly engineered malodor counteractant system controls odors for a pleasant restroom experience.
    Locking Flush Valve - Controlled Flushing Unit
    Stainless Steel Construction - Long Life
    Complementary Fragrances - Ocean Breeze or Citrus Bouquet available
    Bio-Active Enzymes - cleans and fights odor causing bacteria with use
    Non-Para Block - meets VOC requirements

     

    At the heart the Smart Restroom System is our latest innovation...the SmartValveTM. This lockable, patent pending, flush valve turns most any urinal with a standard or automatic flush mechanism into a water free urinal avoiding costly tear-outs of existing urinals and installation of water free urinals.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    We need one of these for the trolls!
    5 Apr 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    There's gotta be a stop-start joke in there somewhere...
    5 Apr 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Strap one of these on an electric fence and knock yerself out!
    5 Apr 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    I thought it might be a fixture designed to service those who "...insist on urinating on the spark plug..."

     

    Or perhaps a whole new take on "liquid salt" formula batteries...
    5 Apr 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Bathroom humor.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Axion was to present at the Virtual Summit today--3:30p or so, I vaguely recall.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    If we had any volume, this thing would trade .45 again today.

     

    HTL...is this part of the consolidation ?
    5 Apr 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    IMO, yes.

     

    As I posted, I thought we'd possibly $0.42 again (saw ... $0.418? 1 trade IIRC) and it would be good if support was found there. This was to start around the third day of the rise, which it did.

     

    Classic symptoms: narrowing price range, reducing volume in a sort of "flat" sideways range.

     

    This is the "catching the breath" phase.

     

    I must say that I'm really pleased to see apparent support a bit above the $0.42. I was hoping that we didn't run out of buyers to fast at this price level.

     

    *If* there's lots of interested folks, they can now gain some comfort that the degree of downside seems reduced and start to edge in.

     

    That's the good scenario. My *hope* is to see a *grind* up begin - nothing with a big flashy move, just "steady as she goes".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: I forgot about today's $0.41 trades, 2 trades totaling 7K at 09:30:02 this A.M. These and the one-off $0.418 we'd seen don't bother me one wit.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    ISYACTABOH
    CYS!!!
    5 Apr 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    I just gave a thumbs'up to a comment couched in what is either acronyms-gonewild or perhaps Mongolian...

     

    But I trust you, Jon.
    5 Apr 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    I just got a chance to relisten to the cc, most of its been discussed, and this may have been mentioned,,but, at the 29 minute mark someone asked Tom what benchmarks for success might we see in the future.
    He answered that he didnt want to supply a roadmap for competitors, but then went on to say, power cube sales, and hybrid locomotive sales, and...... "a few things we havent discussed yet, but have been working on for awhile". And, he said they should pop within the next few months. I wonder what kind of stuff they are coming up with that hasnt been discussed yet. I think its a bit early for auto, and we sort of have discussed that...oh well, just thinking,,any guesses?
    5 Apr 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Home power cube, military applications, truckline, etc.
    5 Apr 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    And a very outside chance, perhaps forklifts and other material handling gear... Mitch Vine has written several articles about PlugPower's efforts in that market with their fuel-cells.... With its quick recharge capability, PbC could be a contender there I'd think.. again, *very* outside chance now... but in the future, who knows?... many novel applications will likely eventually find their way to the PbC, but for now sure seems Axion has plenty of irons in the fire at it is...

     

    Oh, and there's always the RV and Sailboat folks.. ;)
    5 Apr 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Truckline? did somebody say truckline? been working harder than I want to but will post my info soon. Looking like I will have to spend the weekend in Miami - rats! <grin>
    5 Apr 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    TG says 'oil rigs' in every single cc but he hasn't 'discussed' them.

     

    So it could be oil rigs too.

     

    D
    6 Apr 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Working on an article this weekend ( during commercials of the Masters) which tries and dissect TGs statement. Its been a little more difficult than I first thought. Hopefully will be approved for the next concentrator.
    6 Apr 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it is rubber tire gantry cranes.

     

    Out friend IINDelco, brave fighter in a world full of trolls, posted something very interesting yesterday:

     

    http://bit.ly/Hj6Vsk

     

    http://bit.ly/Ie6anp

     

    RJ Corman, who bought RailPower Technologies Inc, who developed the early Green Goat locomotives, is working on a "Hybrid GenSet Power Plants for RTG Cranes".

     

    Huge market and a perfect fit for the Power Cube. Maybe they've turned to Axion for help. It would make so much sense.
    6 Apr 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, f-kru. It would make perfect sense for RJ Corman to use the PbC in it's RTG cranes.

     

    I noticed they advertise a 'maintenance free battery' but I don't see how that can be if they are constantly cycling a string of lead acid batteries.

     

    I would think that only the PbC or some very expensive NiMH or Li-ion could make such a promise.

     

    Hopefully they've at least had some conversations with Axion.

     

    D
    6 Apr 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    It does look like a very promising application of some form of PowerCube.

     

    I wonder if the weight of lead batteries might actually have some advantage over lighter and more expensive lithium batteries in this case, as the low mass center of a PowerCube at the base might lend greater stability to the crane as it slings heavy containers up high.

     

    That press release is nearly two years old now. Has there been other news about their EcoPower systems? Does anybody have some notion of the potential sales figures of gantry cranes?

     

    Here is another bit of press about a different company making these EcoPower systems: http://bit.ly/HjW0ia

     

    http://bit.ly/HnltbS

     

    http://bit.ly/HlIwI4

     

    I cannot find more detailed descriptions of their battery systems.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Looks like an excellent application for PbC. I doubt it is an actual "PowerCube" since that is packaged into a container. They would want to distribute the battery weight evenly across all the axles, and both sides of the load.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I found this report about a demonstration project at the Port of Long Beach from January 2012:
    http://bit.ly/IepQY7
    They are using AGM batteries from Exide. No battery issues mentioned, however.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    DM, AGM batteries are considered "maintenance free". Maintenance refers to that no water is added to the cells. Flooded batteries require distilled water top offs , and also need equalizing charges. Equalizing charges are long charges at a slightly elevated voltage to help dissolve sulphate crystalization.

     

    AGM batteries, including Axion's PbC, do not have a liquid electrolyte, and should NOT have an equalization charge.

     

    "Maintenance free", of course, says nothing about the useful life, charging rates, and general effectiveness of the battery.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    F-kru: Excellent find.

     

    With the size of the loads those sorts of cranes can handle, each could use a *lot* of batteries. Each crane sale might easily equate to batteries in quantities similar to the locomotive requirements.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    I took a second look, actually the report says that the entire 108 batteries should be replaced after two years or earlier, whenever they've degraded. So there we have it.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.

     

    I also just found this description: http://bit.ly/HjCFT3

     

    See the "Hybrid Translift in Service" sidebox. They use lead acid batteries with a 135hp diesel generator, but no mention of how many batteries or the kWh or performance parameters.

     

    "Taken together, fuel and maintenance savings are US$167,100 per year. The premium for the EH hybrid crane is approximately US$400,000, so it should be recovered after 2.4 years of service."

     

    How would a PowerCube stack up for that price?
    6 Apr 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Plug's fuel cell replaces batteries; that's part of their sell.
    6 Apr 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    HTL, really IIndelco deserves all the credit, he posts a lot of intersting links. The demonstration unit uses only 108 batteries, but it was probably rather small.
    6 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The Exide batteries RJ Corman used for the Long-Beach Eco-gantry test are big industrial beasts in 6-volt cases with about 1.3 kWh of rated energy capacity. – http://bit.ly/HXoFh7

     

    The 108 batteries probably cost something in the neighborhood of $30,000.

     

    The fuel savings during the test were 18.2 gallons per hour which works out to 291.2 gallons per two shift day or 72,800 gallons per 250 day work year.

     

    At $3 a gallon for off-road diesel, the $30,000 battery investment returned $220,000 per year in fuel savings.

     

    Those are battery economics even my father would love.
    6 Apr 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Depends on how many batteries it containes. Other than the PC There's not much additional cost involved I guess.
    The PbC might yield a bit more in savings and would last a couple of years longer. If the batteries need to be replaced before the 2.4 years not much is gained anyway except for reduced emissions.
    6 Apr 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Given that a large part of the advantage this hybrid system offers is the regenerative energy capture when the hoisted load is lowered, how does the dynamic charge acceptance of these Exide batteries and the life cycles with frequent discharges compare to the PbC's profile?

     

    Would not the PbC be more effective at capturing that regenerative braking energy?
    6 Apr 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    The cost/Watt for a fuel cell is high. Therefore, they are more cost effective if you size the FC as small as possible and run it at a high duty cycle.

     

    That implies electric storage on the vehicle to supply the large but intermediate acceleration loads. Regenerative braking is also reasonable if you already have an electric motor ( becomes generator at need) supplying the drive power. Fast charge/discharge (high power) storage batteries are, of course, necessary for regenerative braking.

     

    My point is that even when powered by a hydrogen fuel cell, it makes good sense to have a significant amount of storage on a fork lift. PbC should be a near perfect choice for a "hybrid" fork lift that actually needs some counterweight on it.
    6 Apr 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    My guess is that the PbC would be a good deal more effective and cost effective in this kind of heavy cycling operation. Since the typical crane is doing a couple hundred container lifts per shift, it has to be running at a fairly shallow depth of discharge and offering a load profile that looks a lot like stop-start or an HEV.

     

    I just did a quick Google search and learned that 1 kWh = 2,655,220 ft-lbs of lift, which is almost exactly the energy required to lift a 50,000 pound container 50 feet. If the system has over a hundred kWh of capacity and each cycle uses 1% of that capacity, you're basically back to a stop start regime where an engine off cycle uses 1% to 2% of total battery capacity.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    See how happy this crane is about the PbC!

     

    http://bit.ly/I5GDNL
    6 Apr 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    All of the discussion today about battery use in a crane shows how the power cube application is just the tip of the iceberg for PbC technology. Somehow Axion kept the deal with Viridity and PJM under wraps until it was announced. TG mentioned in the last CC that there were other applications they were working on that haven't even been mentioned yet!

     

    If the PbC is as good as Axion and BMW have reported, it will replace the AGM batteries in many applications. All it will take is a few months of very successful use in a few applications.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    I know ths is very premature, but do we have any idea how PbC pricing will be affected by its large scale adoption? Price is always a factor, and if its possible for PbC to compete directly with other alternatives, that will form the future upward curve after the initial spike of early adoption.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Maya, that crane was definitely electrified by something!
    6 Apr 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The thing that surprised me most about the PowerCube announcement was that Axion went all the way through the process of design, testing getting the necessary permits and negotiating contracts with both Viridity and PJM before it said anything more than "we're building a PowerCube." That kind of control over news leakage is extraordinary in small companies.

     

    The variety of "other applications" that Axion could be working on is almost endless. My favorite would be telecom backup batteries which represent a multi-billion niche in their own right. Have you ever wondered why the hard wired phone system works when the power goes out? Think buildings full of batteries in every city in the country.

     

    I'm inclined to believe it will take a few years of successful use and proof of cycle life before we know the true worth of the PbC, but it's certainly a snowball that will gain mass and momentum as it starts to roll.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    JP: You read my mind. Having traveled to third world countries, and witnessing how frequently electricity goes down, I think battery back up power for cell towers would be a must.

     

    Turns out the FCC already has regulations for back up battery power for most all cell towers:

     

    "Verizon reminds investors that the FCC imposes "specific mandates" on wireless carriers including "backup electric power at most cell sites." Therefore, cell towers typically have battery backup arrangements that support operations for two to four hours, depending upon call traffic."

     

    This is indeed a massive potential market:

     

    http://bit.ly/Hjsh8R
    6 Apr 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    I think he was dancing to AC/DC.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Or else waiting for a hybrid urinal to be installed...
    6 Apr 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Actually I was thinking more about the legacy hard wired telephone system, but the cellular system is another massive market niche. Collectively they represent billions of dollars in battery purchases per year. I have no idea whether the boys have gotten any traction in the telecommunications markets, but it's a biggie.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    +1 re. the sailboat applications. For monohulls anyway, lead is good if you can keep it low and close to the centerline. When your ballast can also store electricity, thats a two-fer.
    6 Apr 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Actually, it might be something much bigger than the port cranes. Large ports have real air-quality problems as docked ships have to keep their engines running to turn the generators. This is akin to the problem of parked locomotives running their engines 24/7, but on an even bigger scale.

     

    Some ports (I think this includes Long Beach) have begun to seriously upgrade their infrastructure so that ships can plug into the grid while docked, but that represents big $$ improvements. I wonder if a smaller port might look at a way to bring a few PowerCubes into the mix as an alternative to beefing up the local part of the grid?
    6 Apr 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    The telecom market that ZBB has been trying to slowly develop has been described in their investor presentations as an $18 billion market to 2015 - slide 17 at the link below.

     

    http://bit.ly/I2rVVo

     

    I have always considered this a market that Axion would be competitive in as well.
    6 Apr 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    WDD: I would think even catamarans could use the ballast as I recall some really ... "exciting" pictures of those buggers with a hull out of the water at about a 45-degree angle on occasion.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    He's not happy! He's pissed because he's lost his RTs (rubber tire) shoes!

     

    I recognized his behavior immediately as being how I look when I can't find my specs!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Great discussion... it seems clear that any application that involves a repetitive, intermittent exchange of great quantities of recoverable mechanical work is a potentially excellent candidate for the PbC... owing to its high durability and charge acceptance. Some of these many applications now use some flavor of LA or AGM, while some don't currently use batteries at all, because heretofore, no available battery was suitable enough to be worth it. In view of this, I think a very useful question to ask ourselves is something like: "In what ways are the current state of the art LA / AGM batteries *better* than PbC?" (Possible answers might include: energy per unit volume, cost, internal resistance, self-discharge rate, flatter discharge curve, etc.) Once those answers are reasonably established we could look at the entire universe of existing LA / AGM applications and try to pick out those that really *need* whatever AGM's superiorities are over PbC. It seems like it would be few. Exclude those applications. Everything else is fair game. Everything else, every market and application where LA / AGM is now dominant, are potentially excellent opportunities for PbC... That's a big universe all by itself. And that's without even considering all the new potential applications which don't use batteries now, because up to now there hasn't been a battery good enough and/or cheap enough for them. "Capability gap" would be the military term--IE "What would you like to do, what do you need to do, that you can't do now because you lack the capability?" and to the extent that that capability can be attained through material means, the question becomes: "What piece of gear, with what performance parameters, would enable you to do what you need?" The piece of gear that answers that question is said to fill the capability gap.

     

    BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) is that PbC, as a new class of device, fills a lot of capability gaps. It will certainly take a while, but I believe it WILL eventually find its way into everywhere it's needed...
    6 Apr 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (HYGS), a fuel-cell company, has a contract with Commscope (a very large supplier to telephonic industry) for backup-power systems. This makes them a potential competitor in the arena.

     

    I don't yet know how cost compares and/or exactly what other considerations apply (water usage? NG used, ...), but Commscope will be marketing this as one of their product offerings, according to Hydrogenics.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    Any type of crane operation will cycle the batteries many times in a day. That's an ideal application for the PbC because of its very low cost/cycle.
    Given a shallow depth of discharge with each cycle, it could have 10X the life of conventional AGM batteries.
    6 Apr 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    I hate to sprinkle cold water, but the cell phone backup power market doesn't seem to be a good fit for the PbC. Very low cycles/time means low maintenance AGMs would be more economical at the job. It's frequent cycling without fully recharging the battery that kills conventional LA batteries.

     

    Now if the cell towers were powered by renewables like solar and wind, the PbC would be an excellent candidate.
    6 Apr 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if they picked up DRich's several mentions of marine hybrid applications? That's a cool thought even if it is a daydream. Followed thought with some sort of truck application. Plenty of regenerative braking there.
    5 Apr 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the thoughts,, I suppose high rise elevators could use regen gravity. Do we know anyone from that field?
    The long haul trucks ,,I think do not offer the same economies as short haul/local delivery, buses. UPS, etc. well, fun to wonder.
    6 Apr 2012, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    For those that follow the Russel indexes, which can affect price behavior around the rebalancing periods,

     

    http://bit.ly/Hj61k9

     

    If AXPW should come into consideration for inclusion (again?), start limbering up your body in anticipation of handsprings.

     

    Wouldn't want suffering to result from pulled muscles.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5707) | Send Message
     
    Has AXPW been considered before for the index? If so I missed it.

     

    Do you think there is a possibility? if so, on what basis?
    6 Apr 2012, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    It appears that OTCBB stocks are excluded from the Russell indexes, along with sub-$1 stocks. – http://bit.ly/GN1CBX

     

    Under the circumstances, I think I'll plan on staying in couch potato mode until an upgrade to the Amex ($2 minimum bid) or the Nasdaq ($4 minimum bid) is visible on the horizon.

     

    An exchange listing is the only goal we set for Axion in 2003 that hasn't been met. Axion could have an exchange listing immediately if the board was willing to implement a reverse split. While stockholders often whine and moan about reverse splits to maintain an exchange listing, reverse splits to qualify for an exchange listing are usually not seen as a problem.

     

    The lawyer in me might give into temptation and take the easier path, but the investor in me has to love the "REVERSE SPLIT!? We don't need no stinking reverse split!" attitude we heard from TG on the conference call.

     

    The board knows what the Amex and Nasdaq listing requirements are. For two years running they've discussed and rejected the idea of a reverse split in their proxy statement deliberations. Within a few weeks we should know whether the board's resolve will weaken this year.

     

    It's a subtle and indirect statement, but I read the board's inaction as a clear and unequivoval indication that they believe Axion should be a $2 to $4 stock in its own right without any changes in the capital structure. When the guys who know EVERYTHING are that confident, those who like to fret about everything should probably take the clue and relax.
    6 Apr 2012, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Shoot! You told me that before and I forgot. I had argued then that GWMGF was OTC and it was pointed out they listed on a major (TSX) as well.

     

    Oh well - I'll have to power up brain-cell # 2 (it's got PbC backup I hope)!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    In my naivete, I first bought a little in 2009 at $1.85. My intention was to take a small position to keep me interested, then buy more if the price went down, but the company improves. Back then, I assumed that if Axion had a good component, they could just start selling it. Even small scale do-it-yourself car conversions or a replacement for any deep-cycle lead battery could get the company going. Heck, the lead-gel battery in my lawnmower takes 12 hours to charge. Replace it with a battery that charges in 2 minutes and electric mowers replace gasoline.

     

    Getting back to the price/share and market cap. With all that Axionistas have heard about test results, longevity, manufacturability, range of applications, the Market Cap is lower than it was 3 years ago. There are more shares now, but the company now is not just locked and loaded, the whole platoon has safety switches off and are tracking targets. All it takes is 1 customer with a repeating order and few of us will be concerned about playing the exchange game with arbitrary and antiquated exchange price levels.
    6 Apr 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    In 2009, Axion's plan was to start manufacturing at a modest scale, selling PbC products to lower tier markets, and moving up the battery user food-chain over the course of several years.

     

    That all changed in the summer of 2009 when the automakers found their way to New Castle and said "come to our training camp now and we'll get you ready for the big leagues faster."

     

    Given a choice between working with the best coaches in the world and learning by doing in the bush leagues, Axion did the smart thing and chose to endure a battery industry equivalent of "The Cruel Tutelage of Pai Mei"

     

    http://bit.ly/HQ4f7q

     

    Almost three years later Axion is lean, mean and ready for combat.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    Have you noticed the number of followers of the APH has jumped from 68 a few days ago to now 74.
    It took weeks to grow from 67 to 68. (If my memory serves me well)
    Maybe this is an early indicator of where the stock price is going :-)

     

    Anyway, welcome to the new followers.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Poul,
    Your still in the stone age. We are already up to 76!
    metroneanderthal
    6 Apr 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Noticed this testimonial from the energy storage summit that occurred last week -

     

    "Great comprehensive overview of utility perspective...Excellent presentation on ‘real time’ SCE’s – storage activity and evaluations underway...One of the best presentations regarding the benefits of storage for various utility applications."

     

    Director of Marketing, Axion Power International

     

    http://bit.ly/I3dGzC

     

    Wonder who that was?
    6 Apr 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Must have been Vani.
    6 Apr 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    The "Download Center" for that conference has a lot of apparnetly interesting links: http://bit.ly/I0qJX1
    7 Apr 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    There's got to be some good stuff in there - I've already picked a couple to review.

     

    Thanks WTB!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    One more thingy, that I didnt see discussed, not that it needs it, but revs for the 4th qtr were approx 25% higher than the 3rd qtr.
    Makes an Amish go MMmmmm?

     

    That said , the LeadAcid contract may have been ramped up a tad...or not.
    7 Apr 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Amish,

     

    It's only a suspicion, but IIRC Axion has engineering and consulting services. I think that some of the activity that has been on-going, like evaluating other manufactures batteries, maybe assisting Norfolk Southern, maybe delivering some batteries to some folks for test, ... might be the source of some of that increase.

     

    The battery contract you mention did also have a "window" of size, so that's certainly a possibility.

     

    I wonder if some of that is seasonal?

     

    It would be good if they were consulting with some potential larger customers.

     

    Fun to think about, horrible to not know! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    In connection with my review of the Form 10-K I put together a spreadsheet that calculated revenues from flooded lead acid battery sales as $724,810 in Q1, $1,325,509 in Q2, $1,803,775 in Q3, and $2,556,390 in Q4.

     

    Other product sales were $310,633 in Q1, $373,862 in Q2, $293,638 in Q3, and $242,912 in Q4.

     

    Service Revenues were $24,000 in Q1, $387,645 in Q2, $0 in Q3, and $48,000 in Q4.

     

    It will be fascinating to see what Q1-12 revenues from flooded batteries are because that will give us a good hint about whether sales will continue to ramp or perhaps flatten out.
    7 Apr 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    One of my followup questions, should there have been time for them, was whether TG anticipated any changes in the flooded LA sales due to the very mild winter in many areas of the US.

     

    I wonder how far in advance the contracts are negotiated, and whether there might have been some "channel stuffing" that will affect us for a while.

     

    Can't imagine we're the low cost producer (not withstanding the upgrade in the production line,) but we may be a "motivated seller."
    7 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Thank you for taking the time to do that.

     

    It certainly adds "some color".

     

    IIRC, the toll manufacturing could go as high as $8M or so on the current contract? Assuming there was real demand (not the "channel stuffing" WTB mentioned as possible), I'd say the ramp showed the customer was pleased with the work and financial results obtained.

     

    Combined with TG's statement of continued 300%-400% growth range for revenue, I think the battery sales must be a solid part of that. My thinking is that the many of the other "irons in the fire" aren't yet solid enough to predict that continued revenue ramp.

     

    I'm thinking that toll work is expected to be a nice solid piece going forward, allowing the confidence to state that revenue growth range even if just one or two of the "irons" come to fruition this year.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Remember that the customer carries the inventory costs and supplies the raw materials.

     

    Effectively, we're amortizing the cost of the lines (and upgrades) with a very low run-rate cost.

     

    If you recall, the plant and lines were bought from the bank for a song.

     

    So there is a good chance that Axion is a low-cost producer.

     

    All based on memory,
    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    In the Q3 call Tom spent a good deal of time discussing upgrades that will increase flooded capacity while paving the way for more AGM activity. Other Axionistas have reported that the flooded battery buyer is East Penn, a company that's had a strategic relationship with Axion since 2004. If I'm a big company that hopes to establish a preferential long-term relationship with a small up and comer, peeling a point or two off my in-house manufacturing activity in order to build a better partner might make solid strategic sense.

     

    Axion's Q-4 run rate on flooded batteries was $10 million per year and the Q on Q ramp rate in 2011 was consistently over 45%. If I'm trying to help build a partner there's no reason I wouldn't also want to continue building its sales as it proved its manufacturing capabilities, particularly if I had an opportunity to handle all the labeling, distribution and customer service and earn something close to my normal margin in the process.
    7 Apr 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Good points. It also allows East Penn to see what kind of quality control Axion maintains. This would be an indicator of how Axion would maintain quality in a much more sophisticated battery such as the PbC. I read at least one comment where TG made a statement about quality and it was better than (my words, not his) Six Sigma (3.4 or less bad units out of a million).
    7 Apr 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing it is a nice deal for "East Penn" as well i.e.,don't have to spend money on new plant, equipment and hire new workers, and Axion does all the managing.
    7 Apr 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    I would love to know the failure rate for the PbC electrodes.
    7 Apr 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    When one dies I am sure they will let us know. :-)

     

    deep cycle discharge- 2,500 cycles
    shallow discharge- 100,000 cycles
    7 Apr 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking of the QC production default rate for the electrodes. Are they six sigma?
    7 Apr 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Since Axion feels comfortable ordering the Gen 3 line right now, if they had to, then I assume the default rate of production is very small.
    7 Apr 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    I notice that the growth in product sales is 6,3 million USD from 2010 to 2011. The growth in product cost is 5,9 million USD. That is only a 6% gross margin.

     

    Nice with these extra sales, but it only added 0,4 million USD in gross profit.

     

    I know that it is a fine opportunity to train and hire personnel in preparation for larger scale production of PbC. But let us not get carried away.

     

    Or is there something I do not know/understand?
    7 Apr 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    A fine sobering point, thanks Poul.
    7 Apr 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    I'd say just about every dollar coming in the door, even if it takes 94 cents to bring in, still helps pay to keep the lights on and those doors open... Is the 94 cents COGS purely raw materials, or does it include labor, plant, and fixed costs?
    7 Apr 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I could be mistaken, but I thought it was reported on the conference call that the cost of products to our biggest customer was $4.3 million.
    I took that to mean that the lab contract was worth a couple of million to Axion.
    7 Apr 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, during the CC, TG (more acronyms here than even Jon Springer can muster) stated that there has not been one warranty claim against batteries produced by Axion under the toll contract..
    7 Apr 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    I heard a rumor that he had converted the full text of "War and Peace" to a single string of some length.

     

    The abbreviations and acronyms web site rejected it due to lack of storage capacity, to which he replied "HTHAISTCMABASIICGIYPD?".

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    HTL, LOL
    I tried to googlea couple of Jon's acronyms, only found one, and then gave up after that. I thought it more similar to Welsh (Cymraeg) than Mongolian.
    7 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I remember someone that spoke like that. Couldn't understand hardly anything he said, but usually because he drank a couple liters of wine everyday for lunch.
    One day he was cutting rebar and assembling a rebar cage to go inside a 15' concrete lintel. When he finished it after about two hours of work and with everyone waiting on it, it was about 3 feet short. He said in the most convincing and arguable tone "It shrunk." and stuck to that story.
    7 Apr 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    how the heck am i supposed to create my acronym based .........
    8 Apr 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    A bit of friction between PJM and Viridity Energy, but no real details :-(

     

    Probably not usual.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/IlTr22

     

    "alleging that a portion of a provision in the Respondent's Open Access Transmission Tariff, Emergency Load Response Program, is unjust, unreasonable, and unduly discriminatory."

     

    Link won't tell you much more that the above line unless you're clever enough to be able to find the actual complaint.
    7 Apr 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Scroll over the tabs at the top available after following the link found in this phrase

     

    "This filing is accessible on-line at http://www.ferc.gov, using the “eLibrary” link"

     

    The target page has a drop-down menu when you hover over "Documents and Filings" at the top. In there is "eLibrary".

     

    Clicking it takes you here.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/HoIVtM

     

    I've just now clicked it, so haven't started searching yet.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    It's ER 12-54
    7 Apr 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    You got -it - I just searched "all" and text search "viridity" to get a list of them.

     

    My next task was going to be "Which one?".

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    First had to figure out what is CSP. Good explanation.
    http://bit.ly/HndrmQ

     

    The battle seems to be over if an end user can register with two different CSP's as if with two CSP's, i.e. one for ancillary services and with another for the capacity program, payments received from PJM for curtailment could be very different. Wondering what PJM's argument is?.
    7 Apr 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    Nice link for helping to understand demand response, curtailment, and load shifting. It helped me understand the benefits to the many participants involved.
    7 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Money? If a Full Program Option customer responds in an emergency event a floor price, usually $999 or $1000 per MwH, is already in place and "The customer receives the energy payment without the need to make and clear an offer in the energy market. In contrast, a Capacity Only customer -- who has the same obligation to curtail load during the emergency as other Full Program Option customers -- cannot earn any revenues during the emergency without making and clearing an offer in the energy market, and almost certainly would not earn such a payment if it offered into the energy market at $999 or $1,000 per MWh. No energy market offer at even half this price would have cleared even once over the past several years".

     

    So if PJM can force a customer providing the same service to be paid differently because that customer desires to use the services of two different ISOs, PJM may save a ton of money.

     

    That's what it looks like to me.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    that was my take on it too.
    7 Apr 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Just opened it ... good work guys. Its 76 pages, so it looks like I have some reading for my flight tomorrow.
    7 Apr 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    In my serach I noticed that several other parties have various types of complaints filed against PJM.

     

    I wonder if it's the old resistance of a semi-monopoly trying to resist change too.

     

    "Stultification" is rampant in large long-lived organizations.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    In addition to the above comments, on my initial scan, I noted the following:

     

    "In other words, the customer cannot earn full compensation for the capacity service unless it ties itself to the same CSP for capacity, for energy, and for ancillary services -- even though the capacity CSP has no obligation to represent the customer in markets for energy or ancillary services or even to advise the customer that those markets exist. If the customer desires to work with one CSP that specializes in capacity and a second CSP that specializes in energy and ancillary services, the lesser compensation applies -- even if the customer and both CSPs all agree that the customer would be served best by two CSPs rather than one and all are willing to accept that arrangement"

     

    Why would anyone have two CSP providers ... why not just stay with the the capacity CSP for both?

     

    Are the capacity CSPs the same as the base load generators?

     

    Except that the capacity CSP has no obligation to represent the customer in the energy or ancillary services markets or even advise them that they exist ...

     

    Interesting stuff ...
    7 Apr 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    I can only try to answer one of your questions and I think you already provided what appears to be the answer.
    Why would anyone have two CSP providers? "to work with one CSP that specializes in capacity and a second CSP that specializes in energy and ancillary services."
    At least this is the conclusion I came to (didn't want to end the sentence with a preposition, but writing "at which I arrived" seemed too stilted.)
    metroneanderthal.
    7 Apr 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    This discussion is a great example of why I feel so fortunate to be a member of this group. Some days you have the energy to really dig for something, and some days you don't. But the odds are pretty good that someone here will step up ... and we all take turns sharing the knowledge and the "burden."

     

    Go APC team!
    7 Apr 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Don Juan Demarco
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    WT - I agree.

     

    Interesting commentary by Beacon on the implementation of the tariff in the CAISO.

     

    http://bit.ly/HnTacf
    7 Apr 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    It would be interesting to go, but €2,000 euro is a little steep for me. As a teenager, never thought I would ever say that I would love to go to Paris - to a battery conference.
    9 Apr 2012, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I promise to write a daily Instablog on the ELBC proceedings and hopefully there will be enough meat to qualify one or more of them for the main pages.

     

    I'm glad the event will be in Paris because it's a great destination city. The Istanbul event in 2010 had over 700 participants and I think the ILA may be shooting for 1,000 in Paris. I'm particularly intrigued that Dynamic Charge Acceptance merits its own pre-conference workshop. DCA was an issue that very few people (except Axion stockholders) understood before BMW and Ford featured it as the biggest technical hurdle in the micro hybrid space.
    9 Apr 2012, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on your participation as a speaker.

     

    DYNAMIC CHARGE ACCEPTANCE WORKSHOP
    I see very interesting and begins to generate other more technical concept of the batteries and leave them as a black box that only serves to start the car. Very beneficial for AXPW which DCA is one of their atrubutos.
    9 Apr 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, I meant to ask a question on the LA contract, but I think he told us the only thing he could, and that was, it can be extended in time and was. It would be nice to see it ramp enough to lower the over-all burn rate to 1M$ per qtr or so. We will see what we will see.
    7 Apr 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    More from Xtreme Power, which is already playing in the space the 'cube wants to occupy:

     

    "We can react much faster than any other tech on the grid," said Coe. "Assets that can do that balancing better should be paid a premium. Not only does that allow storage to play in the utility space it also recognises the unique value it brings."

     

    "Power management might be one of the more important elements associated with energy storage. We're at the still at the Model T phase but we're progressing to the Ferrari phase - maybe not in cost, but performance."
    http://aol.it/IpBJHw
    7 Apr 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Xtreme Powers CEO is like Tom Granville--excited about pay for performance:
    "Coe also said that regulations passed last year by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would favor the acceleration of the energy storage market. FERC's "pay for performance" rule means that independent system operators will compensate energy storage services for provide fast response and performance."
    8 Apr 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I specifically remember Xtreme Power stating their batteries were good for 2000 full discharge cycles versus the PbC's known full discharge cycle life so far of 2500.
    7 Apr 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    >bang: I find it interesting that the number of full discharge cycles is considered important. Realistically, a battery system will almost never be discharged to zero SOC except thru fault or emergency conditions.

     

    I realize that there needs to be some "worse case" number of deep discharge cycles specified for comparing batteries. But what impact, realistically, does it have on daily operation? That's a rhetorical question; I don't have an answer :-)
    8 Apr 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The Technical Programme for this September's ELBC 13 in Paris has been posted on-line. – http://bit.ly/HxclCI

     

    Enders Dickenson will be presenting in Session 6 – "Batteries for Renewable and Industrial Applications" and speaking on "Axion PbC batteries in emerging applications: Micro-hybrids, hybrid locomotives and battery energy storage systems."

     

    I will be presenting in Session 1 – "Global Scene for Lead Batteries" and speaking on "Rising to the micro-hybrid challenge."
    8 Apr 2012, 04:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Will be interesting to see how Axion presents their niche and whether it's acknowledged by other vehicle participants, such as BMW and JCI. IOW, will the others admit that their current solution fails in certain applications and they need the PbC?
    8 Apr 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on the recognition of your expertise. We are indeed lucky to have you as mentor. Many of the good things in my professional life have come because of mentors who taught me what to look for. Thank you.

     

    It was clear from reading the presentations at the Battery Conference that Axion got it right in understanding the recharging problem and fixing it with carbon. Others are playing catch-up and looking for alternative solutions. We all know how long that will take, eve if they come up with something new and better.

     

    What is also interesting is that most of the research comes from Europe and Japan.

     

    Do you have any feeling about how all these presenters will end up "making Axion's case"?

     

    8 Apr 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I expect all of the presenters to make the best case they can for their own solution. The way it's usually done is picking the testing protocol where you look the best compared to your baseline. That's why I'm particularly happy to see Axion using the BMW-Ford micro hybrid test cycle while others use less rigorous cycles.
    8 Apr 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the program you really get a sense that a large part of the future of the lead acid battery lies in some form of carbonization of the negative electrode and in micro-hybrids.

     

    It's looks like more than half the presentations relate to carbon and/or micro-hybrid vehicles.

     

    The future does indeed look bright for the PbC.

     

    D
    8 Apr 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    That was my take-away too, D. And we also know someone who predicted this very development with bullseye accuracy about three years ago, before hardly anyone was talking about stop-start on this side of the Altantic at all. Makes you wonder what else they will be right about....
    8 Apr 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Many of the other presentations look intriguing:

     

    "Lead-carbon hybrid ultracapacitors for highrate partial-state-of-charge applications" -- from the Indian Institute of Science and NED Energy Ltd.. (In session 2)

     

    "The rising functional demand in the vehicle electrical power system and suitable solutions based on lead-acid technology"--- from our friends at BMW (in session 4)
    8 Apr 2012, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Axion has US patents. I don't know patent law--does it mean that an Indian company, for example, can make their own PbC and sell it there, legally? Maybe yuze guys have already discussed that protection or non-protection.
    8 Apr 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2452) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor,
    I am not a patent attorney, but have applied for -- and been granted patents -- on behalf of large financial institutions. Your question requires a far more complex answer than I can provide, but generally I would say if a corporation has competent patent counsel in the first instance and if the market opportunity justifies the expense, additional steps are usually taken to add international patent protection where feasible and economically justified.

     

    Axion (or perhaps JP has some historical perspective) would have to provide the specific answer to your question as to what additional steps have or have not been taken, but the following very general guideposts may be helpful to you in understanding the scope of the question you are asking:

     

    "The rights granted under a United States patent extend only throughout the territory of the United States and have no effect in other countries. Almost every country has its own patent law, and a person desiring a patent in a particular country must make an application for patent in that country, in accordance with that country's requirements. Fortunately, there are several international treaties that aid in applying for international patent protection, including the Paris Convention Treaty and the Patent Cooperation Treaty, otherwise known as the PCT."
    http://bit.ly/Ibvf0i

     

    This link includes general descriptions of the type of foreign licenses and international Patent Cooperation Treaties (PCTs) which may come into play.

     

    mj
    8 Apr 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I've always been impressed by the quality of Axion's patent counsel. More importantly, discussions with patent counsel are always critical issues in any broker's due diligence investigation prior to a financing. The standard protocol is to have patent counsel for the broker discuss the issues in detail with patent counsel for the company. If the patent lawyer's report is bad, the deal will typically fall apart.

     

    I'm deeply aware of my limitations and try to avoid patent issues because they're out of my depth, but I figure Axion's been through at least a couple detailed patent reviews in the last couple years and the deals keep closing. That's always a good sign.
    8 Apr 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Could this be the company that bought Firefly's carbon foam electrode patents?

     

    http://bit.ly/HpSEKx

     

    I cannot find any specific reference on their website. In their "Future Plans" section they mention "Introducing deep cycle battery in collaboration with Bulgarian Academy of Sciences," which has papers elsewhere about addition of carbon to batteries.

     

    Banerjee, Shukla, et al., have this review paper I found on the web: "Electrical-energy storage in hybrid ultracapacitors" http://bit.ly/IiuINJ
    8 Apr 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The stories I read at the time of the Firefly bankruptcy said an Indian company named Electrotherm planned to buy the assets.

     

    http://bit.ly/IfyeXU

     

    I haven't found anything that clearly says the transaction has closed.
    8 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    The company, NED, never actually says what type of battery it is making, but they cast and "paste" both positive and negative electrodes. That makes it unlikely they are using a carbon foam matrix, a la Firefly, for either electrode.

     

    I would say they are just another low labor cost LA battery producer.

     

    The pictures show lots of manual labor involved in the production.
    8 Apr 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Mr Investor,

     

    US patents ONLY cover US territory. That means that it allows the patent holder to (legally) prevent others from commercially manufacturing or selling the contents of the patent in the US.

     

    Even in the EU, patent protection only applies to the country of issue. There is some confusing beaurocracy that does help to simply filing and priority dates, but the bottom line is that each country only issues protection (for manufacturing and sales) within that country. It's common to file in Germany and maybe a manufacturing hub to grab a large portion of the market and to skip other countries. As it costs tens of thousands of dollars to file and maintain each patent (not to mention legal fees) often it's simply not worth the expense for small companies to grab for wide coverage. They're bound to make additional improvements that can be kept as trade secrets until (or even after) money for more comprehensive protection starts rolling in.

     

    In other words, if Axion only has US patents, a Chinese vendor can legally sell copies in any other country.

     

    If I remember tomorrow, I'll check international filing status of all the patents mentioned in the annual report.
    8 Apr 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    The following link is to a white paper by Allcell, a manufacturer of lithium ion batteries. They compare two different li-on chemistry batteries to lead acid. 100% depth of discharge at 1,900 and 2,000 cycles for the two different li-on batteries. TG at CC said that the PbC had done +2,500 100% discharges, but we don't know what capacity, charge acceptance, charge time the PbC retained.

     

    http://bit.ly/HoK9Er
    8 Apr 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    You are correct thyat we don't know the specifics. Although we do know that reports keep stating that the two chemistrys perform similarly ( except in extreme temperatures where li-on fails) and that the PbC is 2/3rds the cost.

     

    I'm curious but what would you expect the data to show? I would expect that the PbC would maintain its charge acceptance up to the near life end. I would expect it to recharge just as quickly in its old age as when it was younger. I say this because the string equalization factor mentioned in string testing, leads me to believe that the PbC internally maintains its charge acceptance properties very well. No reason to believe it wouldn't maintain its discharge profile either.
    8 Apr 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I think a clue as to what to expect lies on page 18 of the Investor Presentation on the Axion website.

     

    http://bit.ly/IebI1O

     

    Where optimized charge of 100 amps can be maintained for about 5 years and then slowly tapers off for several years, and where charge time is maintained at about 30 seconds for 6 years and then increases slowly to 50 seconds at end of 100,000 cycles, or about 9 years.
    Sandia also provided data on the Ultrabattery in comparing it with lead acid.
    http://bit.ly/rT4uFO
    I think one can extrapolate from the Sandia numbers through comparing it with the numbers from the table that appeared in the header a few concentrators ago (Pbc vs lead acid),
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    and come to a reasonable conclusion that the Ultrabattery is a half step between the PbC and lead acid. However, the testing protocols are not the same, but both the Ultrabattery and the PbC are compared against a common demoninator.
    It appears through the white paper that I linked in my previous message, that PbC would compare favorably with Li-on, however, Li-on would have the advantage where weight and size are an issue, although PbC would have a cost advantage where weight and size are not important. JP has already written this on various occasions as well as stated that the Ultrabattery is a half step. My take is the Ultrabattery is not a good enough half step in start/stop applications, which was one of my fears. I just do this to get my mind around the different chemistry and how it compares with my favorite battery brand..

     

    And even though JP has stated the above before, I just kind of like to research and compare the numbers me self (sic) as I can remember it better and my memory is about like the charge acceptance for a VRLA battery after several months of cycling - a bad battery geek joke.
    8 Apr 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (195) | Send Message
     
    I was quite shocked to know, from your link, that LA batteries degrade significantly above 25C. I did a quick google search and found that every 8.3 C increase above 25 C cuts AGMs' lives in half and unfortunately this problem roots in the anode not cathode. As I am not a regular concentrator participant, have we axion fanboys discussed this kind of thermal degradation and its implications before?
    8 Apr 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, during the CC, TG stated that the PbC had achieved 75,000 shallow cycles. Interesting that the Investor Presentation which I linked shows 100,000 cycles. Potentially different testing protocols? Additionally, am wondering if the 2,500, 100% depth of discharge cycles aren't about at the end for the PbC. Otherwise, I think it would be a real bragging point that little or no degradation had appeared, even though as Siliconhillbillly pointed out in an above post, that 100% depth of discharge is really not that important as doesn't happen in real useage.
    8 Apr 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Tom summarized the problem with cycle testing during the call, but he didn't really drill down into the impacts.

     

    It's almost impossible to squeeze more than three complete charge-discharge cycles into a 24 hour day. So running a battery through 2,500 complete cycles takes a couple years and when you're finished with the test all you can really say is "pre-commercial prototypes we built in late 2009 survived 2,500 cycles."

     

    The PbC has improved a lot since the pre-commercial prototype days, but it will take a couple more years of testing to hang a definitive number on that improvement. By then, we could easily be looking at a situation where the 2014 version of the PbC is significantly better than the 2012 version.

     

    You see a very similar problem with automaker and end-user test protocols because one of the things they all do is "test through failure." When the darned battery won't cooperate and fail in a *reasonable length of time* testing to failure can drag on and on.
    8 Apr 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    One of the questions I would like to ask at next CC, or at AGM, is about future battery performance goals. Wondering if R&D expenditure currently has been mostly on improvement of manufacturing technique rather than battery improvement.
    8 Apr 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The PbC's performance is already pretty spectacular and like most batteries, each round of refinements yields a smaller payback because you're starting at a baseline efficiency and moving toward a fixed theoretical limit. The result is a 50%, 75% 87.5% progression instead of the 2, 4, 8, 16 progression we expect in electronics.

     

    The areas where improvements are most important are materials science and manufacturing methods.

     

    Getting the carbon sheeting to an automated single roll process was critical because we started with a process that resembled a French bakery where the carbon, like croissant dough, was put through a roller, folded and put back through the roller again. In the early days it took up to 40 passes. The labor costs were ghastly. Getting the sheeting down to *mix, extrude, roll and done* probably took 80 to 90 percent of the labor out of the electrode assemblies.

     

    Next on my hit list would be finding a cheaper way to protect the current collector from a sulfuric acid bath. The current design uses graphene sheeting, an electrically conductive gasket material, as a corrosion barrier. If they can find a cheaper but equally effective way to protect the current collector from the electrolyte, another big cost element could be taken out of the process and many of the current manufacturing steps that focus on getting good seals on the corrosion barrier could be eliminated.

     

    From a materials balance perspective, the PbC replaces a whole lot of lead with an equal volume of carbon and reduces battery weight by ±30% in the process. Even though a pound of carbon is more expensive than a pound of lead, the carbon weight added is only 5% to 10% of the lead weight removed, so you can pay a lot more per pound for the carbon and keep the relative cost balance.

     

    I'm sure they'll keep refining the PbC chemistry and nibbling at the edges, but the biggest gains will come from materials cost reductions.
    8 Apr 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    metro, I consider 100% discharge an important metric in understanding the robustness and actual capacity of the battery. For example, a flooded LA battery degrades acceptably when discharged to 50% (high hundreds to thousands of cycles), and has a significantly shorter life at 80% (low hundreds). At 100% discharge, the life is dramatically shortened, (dozens). As we has seen from some Tesla brickings, even one 100% discharge is fatal.

     

    For long life, a LA needs to have double the capacity to have decent life. The robustness is that for a few times it can be highly discharged and still survive. The PbC, with a reported 2500 100% discharge cycle life, can realistically be sized at almost half the capacity, and stil provide good service. (Almost half because it is always good to have some reserve).

     

    Conversely, if the specs (kwhr) are kept the same, the very strong 100% discharge rating means there is an extremely low likelihood of premature failure due to user abuse.

     

    I am not convinced yet a true 100% discharge over 2500 cycles is real - but even 2500 cycles at 95% is fantastically beneficial.
    8 Apr 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Thanks for you thoughts.
    metroneanderthal
    8 Apr 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    thanks Rick for your reply.
    8 Apr 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Metro: That first link to Axion's stuff seems to have a problem now.

     

    I get stuff suggesting that a component has been removed.

     

    ===============
    <Error><Code&... has expired</Message>...
    ===============

     

    Maybe there's a newer link now?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Apr 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/I8e5Ro

     

    this should fix the link. thanks htl
    8 Apr 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    That dood it! TY sir!

     

    HardToLove
    8 Apr 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I have sent a PM to the Axion Power Host. I have prepared a new front page article for the next concentrator. If it is acceptable, it will give us a couple of discussion points.
    Since I can't add a copy to a PM I will need the e-mail address of the AxionPowerHost.

     

    Happy Easter all.
    8 Apr 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Same to you Futurist! Thanks for the hard work on your days off!
    8 Apr 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Happy Easter to you and I look forward to your header article...
    8 Apr 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking this plane/car idea might be good http://bit.ly/IfgbBj

     

    But then I realized - where would the wings go? - they really need to make it helicopter/car if you're going to be able to hop over bottlenecked traffic.
    8 Apr 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like