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  • Axion Power Concentrator 87: Beginning April 9, 2012: Weighted Moving Average Price And Volume Chart 264 comments
    Apr 29, 2012 2:39 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    ----------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume: by John Petersen

    Last September I wrote an Instablog on my favorite charting method, which ignores day-to-day fluctuations in prices and volumes but tracks the longer term moving averages that I think offer a better view of what's going on in the market. Since it's been a while since I shared the charts I've prepared an updated version through Tuesday's close.

    The top set of lines are the 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day moving average closing prices as measured on the left axis. The bottom set of lines are the 10- and 200-day moving average volumes as measured on the right axis.

    What I'm seeing in the price lines is a tightening range between the 10- and 20-day moving averages which are both about $0.40 and the 200-day average of $.47. With today's close at $0.45 we're at the 50-day average and I think we may be seeing a break to the upside like we had in February of 2011. The big supply and demand difference I see this time around is that there don't appear to be any big holders who are anxious to liquidate. So if a run starts, I don't see anybody with enough shares in their portfolio to crush the run and turn it around.

    What I'm seeing in the bottom lines is a clear reversal of the 10-day average volume to the upside. The volume trough we went through recently was a little shallower than the October-November trough of last year, but not much shallower. The 10-day volume is almost back to the 200-day average and volume trends that start below the 200-day and penetrate up seem to have a lot more strength than volume trends that penetrate down through the 200-day average.

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the summary and chart.

    ---------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    -----------------------------
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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (264)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In an effort to keep the header as neat and easy to read as possible I want to limit it to one article/topic at a time, but look for Futurist's new article, "What a 300% Revenue Gain Really Means" in the next concentrator.
    ----------------------
    Latest comment from previous concentrator by JP...

     

    I promise to write a daily Instablog on the ELBC proceedings and hopefully there will be enough meat to qualify one or more of them for the main pages.

     

    I'm glad the event will be in Paris because it's a great destination city. The Istanbul event in 2010 had over 700 participants and I think the ILA may be shooting for 1,000 in Paris. I'm particularly intrigued that Dynamic Charge Acceptance merits its own pre-conference workshop. DCA was an issue that very few people (except Axion stockholders) understood before BMW and Ford featured it as the biggest technical hurdle in the micro hybrid space.
    9 Apr 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    OT..BUT NEAT IF IT WORKS...anyone have one?

     

    LONGWOOD, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Domark International Inc. (OTCBB: DOMK) announced today that the Company's new wholly-owned Solawerks subsidiary has launched their newest constant-charging product, named the "Solacase" for all versions of the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone. Similar to the Company's new "Solapad" for iPad and "Solafire" for Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) Kindle Fire, new the Solacase contains a large, high-efficiency solar panel on its back, plus an additional internal battery to keep the iPhone charged at all times. The Solacase is the only product of its kind that fits all iPhone versions, including the new iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S
    9 Apr 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    It is not a new idea, there are other solar/battery cases already on market. None of them have taken off as must-have products, because a tiny solar panel, even if left sitting in the sun, cannot keep the iphone fully charged if it is being used regularly.

     

    From the company website:
    Specifications:
    Dimensions ( l x w x h ): 6.50 x 12.70 x 2.30 cm / 2.56 x 5.00 x .91 in
    Weight: 88 g
    Battery Capacity: 1500 mAh
    Performance:
    Input Voltage: 5V
    Input Current: 1000 mA
    Solar Panel: 5V 80mA
    Output Voltage: 5V
    Output Current: 500 mAh

     

    http://bit.ly/HB1Mzs

     

    There is no way an 80 mAh solar panel will keep its 1500 mAh battery and the iphone 1400 mAh internal battery charged. You are still going to need to plug this ugly brick in every night to use your iphone for more than a few calls a day. If you use the GPS, stream music, etc, this thing is no better than many other external battery cases that have greater capacity and more elegant design. But it is cheap at $30.

     

    My solution is charging cradles by the bed, in the car and on my desk at work. It is cheaper and less hassle overall than any of the battery cases I have tried over the years.
    9 Apr 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    thanks SM. We use the cradles & car chargers too. If you use the iPhone's bells & whistles, it sucks battery power quickly. I was hoping something like this would work better.
    9 Apr 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Yes, LT, we all hope for dramatic improvements in battery performance in all of our devices. But the laws of thermodynamics usually trump the marketing hype of "the next big thing" when it intersects with the real world.

     

    Battery tech has not improved as dramatically as the efficiency of the electronics as they approximate Moore's Law. Handheld devices get faster and smaller with more efficient chips at a faster rate than batteries get smaller and lighter, but then we demand more performance and lighter weight from these amazing gadgets, so it is all a wash in the end.

     

    Witness the new iPad; bigger battery, faster processor, but in the end the same battery life and real world performance because that bigger-better battery and processor combination has to drive that gorgeous new Retina display.

     

    One breakthrough we can dream about would be an elegant little fuel cell case. Just squirt a few cc's of methanol in daily and it runs forever without needing a plug. But the tech ain't there yet.
    9 Apr 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1966) | Send Message
     
    The tech is available. There are several companies that specialize in micro fuel cells, especially for the military. One company, Medis Technology has had a product on the market for over a year. Also, google micro fuel cells.
    9 Apr 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Toshiba and others have been promising micro fuel cells for years now.

     

    http://bit.ly/HDWlM1

     

    They are still too expensive, too big, and unavailable in the USA, as far as I know, to be useful as a battery case substitute for consumer electronics. Only the Pentagon can afford this tech at the moment.

     

    The Medis product is an external charger for emergency use, and requires buying replacement cells for each use, as far as I can tell. It is not an integrated phone case that you can squirt the refill methanol into.

     

    But such may be just around the corner: http://bit.ly/HDWlM2
    9 Apr 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3120) | Send Message
     
    Not even close, LT. It's a useless gimmick.

     

    To charge a 1500 mAhr battery in 5 or 6 hours of good sunlight, you need a panel with about a 10 watt nominal output. In Phoenix, a little less; in San Francisco, a lot more. There are only about 5-6 hours of strong _irradiance_ per day, even in the summer. (Heat <> Irradiance)

     

    That panel outputs 0.4 watts.

     

    At best, if you leave your charged (but turned off) phone in the sun for a few months, it probably would still be charged when you came back. Hope it doesn't rain.
    9 Apr 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I like you SMaturin. You're not drinkin any Hopium from what I see >:)
    9 Apr 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    I kicked my hopium addiction after 2008.
    9 Apr 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Sure would like to see volume today & this week, I think we could inch upward every day.
    9 Apr 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    If we've truly entered a consolidation period, it would be a tad early to see big volume and/or big price moves start.

     

    That would change if one our big sellers came back in, either Quercus or some "flippers" from the share issuance (could they still be hanging around? I would think they ought to be gone by now). Anyway, that would push down a bit, so I want to see little volume continue for a while. Folks thinking of buying, but on the fence for timing, need to see some stability for a while.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Apr 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Some notes on international patents (listed in the latest 10K) for Mr. Investor. I can't take the time to check all the filings to see if they're still active or abandoned, but I'll list the countries in which patents were granted and others (if any) where they were filed but possibly not yet granted. My lists will be neither exhaustive nor complete due to stupid patent formatting, but they'll be as close as I can get. Note I'm ignoring European and World applications as they don't give any patent protection, just convenience in multiple filing.

     

    It looks like their stratagies have changed over time. Early on, they covered a range of countries (in the first patent listed). Then, perhaps for financial reasons, they only filed in the US. Most recently, they filed in a list of countries not including Europe (although they filed EP applications in 2007, perhaps just to leave their options open at the time). I'm not sure whether they're trying to cover manufacturing or sales in Mexico, India and China although maybe somebody knowledgable in the manufacture and markets for advanced Lead-acid batteries could comment.

     

    These are all "item and method of making electrodes or batteries" patents so I don't see any obvious regional strategies based on a novice's understanding of the details.

     

    6,466,429 -- granted in US, HK (Hong Kong) KR (Korea) JP (Japan) AU (Australia), DE (Germany), AT? (Austria) CA (Canada) CN (China

     

    6628501 -- Granted in US, AT, DE, HK, AU, JP, CN, KR, CA

     

    6706079 -- Granted in US, filed in AU

     

    7006346 -- Granted in US

     

    7011242 -- Granted in US

     

    7119047 -- Granted in US

     

    7569514 -- Granted in US

     

    7881041 (typo? Doesn't seem to match description in 10K) Granted in US

     

    8023251 -- Granted in US, CN -- Applied in CA, IN (India), KR, MX (Mexico)

     

    7998616 -- Granted in US and CN -- Applied for in JP, MX, KR, CA, IN
    9 Apr 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Deamiter and everyone else, re: patents. Was originally wondering if they are covered just in the US (as that's all that's typically mentioned)--but of course lots of other things are also important to selling a PbC to almost anyone, and help provide a barrier to entry. Like looooong-term testing, and the ability to fullfill the order, lol. Maybe it's almost like a mini version of software--once a customer goes through the hassle and cost of testing, they'll be reluctant to change anytime soon--although that is 'un- mitigated' (hey, I'm from ChiTown so I can make up words) by likely running a lot of battery types through testing simultaneously. GM's got a 60k sq ft facility dedicated to just that, e.g.

     

    So it looks like they are at least somewhat patent-covered in some other, likely key prospective customer mkts such as Germany. Then there are the countries where substantial battery activity (of one kind or another) takes place, such as Korea, Japan and China.

     

    Boy, this patent stuff can quickly become one giant Gordian Knot, or as HTL might write, CF (apologies to whomever wants it). 8^)
    9 Apr 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    I'm concerned about the new synthetic, high surface area carbon materials becoming available. Some seem to have mechanical properties that allow the construction of planar electrode structures without the need for plastics for dimensional stability and toughness. That would allow a competitor to avoid any patents having to do with the activated carbon-fluoride plastic composite "black sheets" Axion now uses.

     

    Even worse, the conductivity of some of these materials may be high enough to permit the negative electrodes to be made with greatly simplified current collector structures. That could reduce the cost and complexity of the electrode.

     

    I can only hope that Axion is closely following these developments and planning for new patent applications if any prove out.

     

    I realize that Axion's basic patents on asymmetric lead-carbon cells are suppose to cover the whole field of sulfuric acid electrolyte, lead carbon storage devices. And yet I worry.
    9 Apr 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    That's still my main worry too. It may not be as good as PbC but it could be just good enough to prolong AXPW mkt. acceptance.

     

    We need to see a commitment by someone in the next 12 months or earlier if possible.
    9 Apr 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    We have to have a head start on testing and manufacturing. I would think our guys are among the top experts in the field on carbon electrodes. My guess is Axion is already testing those new materials.
    9 Apr 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Timing may be an issue.

     

    Yes, carbon additives may be a competitor. But are any of them currently almost 3 years into testing with a major automaker?

     

    With the heightened mpg requirements going into effect over the next few years, can the automakers afford to wait for our competitors to make something that may or may not be as inexpensive and effective as the PbC?

     

    I feel that Axion is the front-runner in this area and that is a big advantage.

     

    Why would automakers wait for an unknown commodity when they have 3 years of testing on the PbC right now?

     

    D
    9 Apr 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    >FPA: I believe they are testing the newest high porosity synthetic carbon materials. One of the advantages to be gained is higher charge storage in the "capacitor" part of the cell and lower series resistance in the carbon electrode. Lower resistance translates into higher storage efficiency at higher power rates. That would allow the use of smaller batteries in power intensive applications. All good.
    9 Apr 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Every electrochemical innovation begins with relatively simple interactions between a small set of materials like lead, carbon and sulfuric acid. Those interactions, however, are the barest starting point and frequently offer the weakest ring of protection. The stronger rings of protection arise as you do the industrial engineering to optimize the ways components interact with each other in an electrode assembly and then optimize the ways electrode assemblies can be integrated with standard manufacturing processes. The goal of any patent strategy is to patent the base interactions, then patent the embodiment of an assembly and then patent the way the assembly integrates into manufacturing infrastructure.

     

    Axion's had eight years to close off the space at all three levels. Finding an interesting carbon or for that matter a better carbon would only be the beginning of a journey through a very dark forest with multiple bear traps on the trail.
    10 Apr 2012, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    The PbC seems to be in this wonderful predicament where half the people are concerned it won't be good enough to gain market acceptance and generate revenue while the other half are worried it is so good everyone will be trying to infringe on the patents.

     

    It has taken Axion almost a decade to get the manufacturing down to the point they can begin small runs of commercial grade product. It has also taken them several years of testing and forging strong relationships with 1st tier OEM's.

     

    A company has to believe they can easily reproduce the product and have proof that product is worth reproducing in the first place, proof is usually in the form of that product generating substantial revenue/market acceptance and preferably a profit for its original manufacturer. They also have to believe they can reproduce the product at least as good but cheaper than the original OEM so they can take the market from them. I believe these are very big questions and at this stage I personally do not believe patent infringement should be a top concern. Great to discuss but not necessarily a top concern, imo.
    10 Apr 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    If Axion has decent-enough patent protection for a carbon cathode, then other's R&D might even benefit us, as all commercialization roads would lead thru Axion Town.
    10 Apr 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's always been the goal. Five or ten years from now when the others have something beyond press releases we'll probably find out how well the plan was executed.
    10 Apr 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I share an opinion:
    AXION POWER initially bought a battery factory to implement its (PbC) technology and now that can become a great point in his favor:
    -.Now AXPW produce AGM batteries in his own factory.
    -.Now produce AGM/PbC batteries in his own factory.
    -.Now produce the PowerCube in his own factory.
    -.Then: they have the technology and the ability to produce batteries (AGM) with its own PbC technology.
    -.They can sell the PbC electrode or may not sell.
    -.They can also make the BMS with the battery (PowerCube or MiniCube).
    In other words go many years ahead of new technologies.
    Have a good night all AXIONISTAS!!!!
    10 Apr 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Ships at port are the next pollution target:
    http://bloom.bg/HuUwqJ
    9 Apr 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3120) | Send Message
     
    LT, I agree ships in port are a major pollution problem. However, I do not see how a PbC system can materially improve the situation.

     

    Bunker C, the heavy, dirty residual fuel, is burned in large ships in gigantic diesel engines for propulsion. There have been several proposals to burn more refined products for final passage in/out of ports, which are more expensive. Smaller diesel engine, used for electricity, more likely to use a distillate fuel, such as diesel oil. Batteries don't really fill in very much. More effective is "cold ironing", i.e., using shore based power to offload power fromn the ship's generators. See http://bit.ly/Hu81Hy

     

    Do you have any ideas how PbC can help reduce ship pollution? [I assume you have already read about the rubber tired gantry hybrids.]
    9 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I don't have a clue how ships play out. It appears they may have to make some changes soon. EPA will get after them, but I expect them to have several years (like auto fuel mileage standards) to fix it.

     

    There has been talk of some heavy batteries to propel ships and use regenerative charging, but it's all speculation. I don't see it working either. But, who knows.
    9 Apr 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I think trains coming into stations will be the first adoption. Then we see how it works. Maybe they can incorporate it into ships some way.

     

    Ports are using Nat. gas for the trucks, ships may incorporate LNG into them because they could refuel with it at the port.
    9 Apr 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    DRich is the resident expert on trains & ships,
    He's dropped off the radar recently ...
    Drop him a PM and when he returns I'm sure he can
    comment in depth.
    9 Apr 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >CO3 ... I haven't dropped off the radar ... just crashed my main computer and hate living on a laptop. The marine implementation of hybrid diesel/electric is an up & coming industry but has the same problem that trains have ... no good battery technology that is cheap enough and can handle the abuse. Attached are the two present state of the art applications and you'll notice they are primitive and designed for saving fuel while not doing heavy work and reduce CO2. Freighters will go electric over the next 20 years but batteries first and preferably ones that have some sort of super-capacitor quality.

     

    http://bit.ly/HwSPFj

     

    http://bit.ly/HvkY3Q

     

    There is quite a bit of work being done on regenerative energy recovery in sea-going ships with wave action. It's analogous to locomotives traveling over hilly terrain, but the scale is several orders of magnitude greater. The yacht industry has several designs.
    9 Apr 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >CO3 ... Here is a little PR blurb from the Norwegian Foundation, DNV (Det Norske Veritas). The mission, stated on their website, is [quote] ... independent foundation with the purpose of safeguarding life, property, and the environment. Our history goes back to 1864, when the foundation was established in Norway to inspect and evaluate the technical condition of Norwegian merchant vessels. [quote]

     

    It gives a little color to what can be accomplished by bringing electric hybrid power to the seas. I'd like to point out a little picture on page 13 that shows one of the popular designs under development for wave motion regeneration. The picture doesn't do justice to actual designs but think about the power of 1000 tons of water for 1 to 3 minutes every 10 minutes in a freighter. Anyone know a battery that can handle that kind of charge discharge regimen?

     

    http://bit.ly/Hvqjbu
    9 Apr 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Glad to see you back, Thanks for the details.
    Except for the Navy Nuke ships,
    this market should be huge.
    Low investment vs. total ship cost,
    Not a particularly weight sensitive vehicle,
    Looks like a technology ready & waiting for "our" battery.
    Any invest-able firms working on other aspects of
    the idea that you like ??
    10 Apr 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >CO3 ... Sadly, there are less than a handful of American companies working on this and no investment opportunities presently I'm aware of and I'm not up on what's what in the EU.
    10 Apr 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3120) | Send Message
     
    A couple of thoughts on maritime ideas mentioned above...

     

    Fishing, especially lobster fishing, may be a good market for start/stop technology. Lobster boats accelerate hard, stop, pull a trap (hydraulics) with engine idling, accelerate to next trap. There was a project going in Maine, but I think it has stalled.

     

    Trans-oceanic cargo ships don't make sense, at least to me. Days to weeks of constant power with a properly tuned engine is perfect for the giant bunker C diesel engines. Weight is still important for ships, and lead (with or without C) is still heavy. Every ton of Pb is a ton less of paying cargo. Large engines are over 50% efficient, see http://scr.bi/Ihi95c p.8. and http://bit.ly/HzCe3D or http://bit.ly/Ihi9Cc

     

    Cruise ships may have some opportunities. Highly variable speeds, large changes in power consumption, sudden peak loads (winches and thrusters from frequent docking), etc, may have an opportunity.

     

    The sailboat slide (from DNV) was cute and entirely ridiculous. Many cruising sailboats tow a propeller to recharge their batteries, and use the same alternator as a micro wind turbine. No need to have fancy hull cutouts. A sailboat is an excellent opportunity for PbC, particularly for high charging rates. Often sailboats have to charge their batteries from their engine alternator, which can take many hours (and is noisy and fuel-expensive). If their engine alternator is modified so it can charge at 100s of amps, wasted fuel is minimized.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick:
    Everywhere there are new applications and applications that represent fuel savings.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "Often sailboats have to charge their batteries from their engine alternator, which can take many hours (and is noisy and fuel-expensive). If their engine alternator is modified so it can charge at 100s of amps, wasted fuel is minimized."

     

    An excellent point Rick. AGM batteries can charge to 80% fairly quickly but the last 20% can take a very long time. And AGM batteries do not like to be short charged - that last 20% is important to the life of an AGM. I love the thought of an idling alternator during a trip.

     

    I like the idea of a short charge cycle while stationary even better. A stationary charge is costly because of the last 20%. You are powering the alternator to provide a fraction of its rating in order to "trickle" in that last 20%. I suspect the PbC would charge in the roughly the same amount of time as the 80% portion of the cycle. That's a significant saving (in my book)...

     

    Now we just need some high output alternators. Delco Remy is a leader here as is Leese Nevel. (Delco? isn't there someone at AXPW who used to work at Delco?)...
    10 Apr 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Around here, Balmar high output alternators are highly regarded as well. It looks like they are about to incorporate protocols for charging lithium banks--they may well be enthusiastic about PbC too as soon as we send them charging recommendations (and get Beneteau et al to install a few Axion batteries as factory equipment).

     

    http://bit.ly/HAs9DG
    10 Apr 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    WDD. Yes, of course Balmar. They are off my radar because they did not make a pad mount in the output that I needed (300+ amps). I did however, look long and hard at their battery management/charging systems and even became friends with an engineer that developed a couple systems for them.

     

    When AXPW hits $3 and I buy my sailboat, I will get re-acquainted with the Balmar products <smile>...

     

    PS sailboats do have engines too <grin>
    11 Apr 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Well, well ...

     

    I was wondering all day long if Quercus or somebody was in. Thanks to JP's heads up a while back, we got another seemingly reliable indicator - the AH trade.

     

    Well, to day at 16:12:46 we got a 10K $0.429 trade. About 10% of the volume, excluding this trade, as we had 101K through the close.

     

    The folks handling the trades are doing doing a very good job masking it, as they have been doing consistently this year recently.

     

    Making the usual assumptions, we should see price hold >= $0.429 tomorrow, for the most part, early in the day. I think we can hazard a guess that the selling would be for about three days again, maybe 4.

     

    But I don't expect big downward pressure from this as the market makers are holding price range nicely and may even creep it up a bit.

     

    All MHO, the usual dose of guesswork and ignorance at no extra charge,
    HardToLove
    9 Apr 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    New form 4 today. Q was the AH trade.
    9 Apr 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    My running total shows Quercus has now sold 431,000 of the planned 850,000. I don't understand how their number of shares increased between 27 and 28 March. I recall the issue being raised before and JP attributed it to a possible accounting error. It would seem an unconventional error to place on an SEC form, and then keep repeating the error. Although as bizarre as it might seem, could Quercus have somehow acquired shares during that timeframe without having to file a form? They went from 2,477,352 on 27 March, to 2,995,352 on 28 March, an increase of 519,000 shares. The transactions on the 27th and 28th were 18,000 and 16,000 shares respectively - so doesn't appear to be a transposition problem.

     

    10 Apr 2012, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Forms 3, 4 and 5 are filed by human beings who usually track their stuff on an Excel spreadsheet and frequently entrust the administrivia to staff. My tracking of the Quercus Form 4s shows 159 daily entries. The total number of individual sale transactions is certain to be a good deal higher. Unless a holder goes back to double and triple check his entries, errors inevitably creep in and get corrected from time to time. There's nothing unusual about it.

     

    The purpose of these filings is to let the markets know when large holders are selling and to track potential liability under the SEC's short swing profit rules. They're supposed to be a good faith effort but nobody expects perfection.

     

    The short-swing profit rules are the most vicious rules on the books and nobody but a rank amateur engages in transactions that might run afoul of the rules. Gelbaum is no amateur.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    thanks for your response.
    10 Apr 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    and the beat goes on...

     

    IDC Energy Insights projects global spending on smart grids to reach $46.4b in 2015

     

    "Another challenge: How to capture and store energy when supply exceeds demand and then release that stored energy when it is needed. Addressing those challenges will drive significant investments."

     

    http://bo.st/Hw72o2

     

    http://bit.ly/HwRU8x
    9 Apr 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • jlyleluce
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    On a sad note David Anthony passed away having taken his own life. Condolences to his family.

     

    link: http://bit.ly/IdUBPV
    10 Apr 2012, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I noticed that too. His connection to AXPW (he's listed as a Director, and of course his firm hooked AXPW up with Quercus) and the various larger investors is well-known.

     

    http://bit.ly/HwShnb

     

    Note: "UPDATE: David Gelbaum sent an email in response to this post. Here it is, in part:

     

    I invested in cleantech to make money, not because of my political ideology. Needless to say, I didn't make any money. On the contrary, I wiped out my family's liquidity. Most of my money was not invested in companies recommended by David Anthony. And my biggest losses were not in 21Ventures companies. I think the investments recommended by David Anthony have done better than my other investments, on average. He put good managers in place and made investments subject to milestones. The failure rate on his companies is not too bad, given the traditional failure rate for venture capital and given that the investments were made just before the Great Recession. I think that the companies that have survived have good prospects.

     

    Finally, David Anthony DID want to make money. He charged me an annual fee for managing the portfolio, as he should have, because he had a family to support. He was devoted to his family and worked very hard for them. He was also devoted to his friends."
    10 Apr 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/HxYDRc

     

    Note the unflattering bit about AXPW.
    10 Apr 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I was saddened to hear of Mr. Anthony's death but wanted to note that he resigned from Axion's board last August.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Ix3oqD
    10 Apr 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if this will disrupt Quercus selling stock? Sounds like Anthony's company is comatose as well.
    10 Apr 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know whether Quercus was supporting Mr. Anthony's investments, but I'd be surprised if his death changed Quercus' established pattern of selling.
    10 Apr 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, didn't the press praise David Gelbaum for being an ethical, green investor. Interesting to see he admits that he had no political ideology, but to make money.
    10 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >metroneanderthal ... It may not be the norm but I don't see that as an either/or situation.
    10 Apr 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Noted in the article:

     

    "It’s not a secret that cleantech has proven to be more difficult to invest in than many had anticipated. Particularly when investors compare it to the web ecosystem and exits like Monday morning’s $1 billion acquisition of Instagram by Facebook. Part of the problem with cleantech investing is the long timetables for a lot of the startup investments.."

     

    Reminds when nano-tech was all the buzz. Remember seeing suggestions that it was the big corporations that would really win.
    (and of course many "projects" in them probably failed ... but we just never heard about them because they weren't material.)
    10 Apr 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    AXPW's Bloomberg article made it into his last Quarterly Newsletter: http://bit.ly/HEW7YW
    10 Apr 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Like the new photo!
    11 Apr 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • john lowe
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I recently noticed this posting for the annual meeting of the Electricity Storage Association, May 2-4, 2012, in Washington, D.C., with Vani Dantam on the schedule of presenters:
    http://bit.ly/IFEmoy

     

    There certainly is a large roster of companies vying for business in this emerging market. The Eos company makes some bold claims for their Zinc-Air battery. Does anyone have a sense of whether this technology or any of the other companies on the roster present a threat to Axion. I apologize if this has been discussed already.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The ESA annual meeting is a huge event. As I recall they make their proceedings publicly available. It will be interesting to see what the presenters (including Axion) have to report this year.

     

    Stationary storage is a massive market with a very wide variety of end-user needs. Every company that brings a cost-effective product to market will have more demand than it can handle, but I can't imagine a situation where a single dominant technology will emerge. They're all going to compete with Axion for market share, but it's very unlikely that anybody will present an existential threat.
    10 Apr 2012, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    One of the sponsors of the ESA:
    East Penn Manufacturing
    10 Apr 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    This may have been posted, Is AXPW going to be here?

     

    Industry Experts to Address Using AMI Meter Data to Enhance Customer Communications
    ATLANTA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Metadigm Services, a utility services company specializing in Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) services to utilities, today announced that Area Vice President Curtis Spencer will speak at the Smart Grid RoadShow in St. Petersburg, Florida, on Tuesday, April 24 2012 at 9:30 a.m. Spencer will deliver a presentation on "Using AMI Meter Data to Enhance Customer Communications" with Ted Spangenberg, Jr., P.E., Director of Military Affairs & Special Projects, Gulf Power, a subsidiary of Southern Company (NYSE: SO).
    10 Apr 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Conference promotion has become a growth industry over the last few years. There are so many outfits sponsoring conferences these days that it takes serious study to figure out which are worth attending. Sadly, most aren't with the time and trouble. Hardly a month goes by that I don't get an invitation to speak somewhere. When I start asking conference organizers about travel costs and honoraria, their tunes often change very quickly.
    10 Apr 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Li-Ion anode/cathode innovation that caught my eye:

     

    http://bit.ly/IfCx7M

     

    Doesn't define the baseline, but claims the new silicone anodes and "special" cathodes improve energy density by 40%. Also was supported by $4.6 million DoE grant and is being transferred from a lab to manufacturing plant.
    10 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    The problem with silicon is that it swells, making maintenance of structural integrity difficult, IIRC.

     

    There are dopings that have been used with it that help alleviate the problem, but I don't recall what drawbacks they bring and/or how far along the path to commercialization they may be.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Apr 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else seeing a "lock up"

     

    For some time I'm seeing bid/ask 5K $0.432, 10K $0.432 and refreshing the Level 2 (Market Depth) doesn't clear it like it usually does.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Apr 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I remember purchasing 100 shares of a stock once, and it was the only 100 shares traded that day. Think I still have the copy from the WSJ. Reminds me of today.
    10 Apr 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I know precisely what you mean, metroneanderthal...

     

    Crickets chirping, empty colliseum marketplace...

     

    Darn lonely feeling.

     

    Been there, done that, bought the tshirt:

     

    "Da Boyz stole my homework".
    10 Apr 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but they "Ate my lunch"! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    10 Apr 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    My level II (via ThinkorSwim) has been goofy today:
    it keeps showing
    ETNM bidding 10K @ .43
    and
    HDSN bidding 5K @ .43

     

    "on top" but says the best bid is 5K at .425

     

    Happens occasionally. Restarting the application didn't fix it.

     

    Current spread: .425 - .428!!
    10 Apr 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Mine finally cleared up after switching to another symbol for about 3 or 4 minutes and then switching back to AXPW.

     

    That's Java combined with UDP (a packet protocol that is not assured delivery) I think. One application, ADVFN trades screen drops stuff all the time and I have to refresh.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Apr 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    So let's say we get some slug of business from BWM.

     

    1) Does that actually shorten any other companies testing time lines?

     

    2) Do we think that BMW shares what it's learned with someone like Bosch http://bit.ly/IutNtL
    in an effort to generate economy of scale? JCI Auotomotive (scary!)

     

    Seems like a potential "critical mass" problem.

     

    I don't have a good feel for who BMW's primary parts suppliers are, though my initial Google foray turned up these recently awarded: "BMW honors innovative suppliers - most of them electronics or software providers"

     

    http://bit.ly/IutMWN

     

    The real problem for me is that I don't a good feel for just how much customization will be required in the "hotel load" parts as you may lose some of the economy of scale "savings." If it adds up to very much, we might need to reconsider what the true cost of using a PbC is to the automaker.
    10 Apr 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's significant cooperation among automakers and suppliers like Bosch when they're working on common systems and components. That's why the ELBC 2010 presentation on DCA came jointly from BMW and Ford. It's an area where they work together. The existence of cooperative relationships won't eliminate the need for incremental vehicle specific testing, but having one automaker approval in place would typically shorten the process for others who are willing to piggy-back on work that's already been done.

     

    The importance of critical mass depends on how far down the product line you want to use a component. Price is less of an issue if you're going to use 100,000 batteries than it is if you want 4 million. Scale will become increasingly important as Axion tries to move the PbC down market from the heavy micro hybrids that look like the initial target. New devices, like the PbC that are at the upper left-hand corner of the learning curve always have potential economies of scale, but those bridges are best crossed when you come to them,

     

    Axion has reported that a 16-volt PbC operating at an 80% state of charge will require minimal tinkering at the automaker level. We're unlikely to get better information until Axion releases it.
    10 Apr 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    http://on.msnbc.com/HE...

     

    In interesting dynamic develops... higher mileage diesels and conventional ICE competing with hybrids.
    10 Apr 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    New picture of NS999 coupled to two other cars.

     

    http://bit.ly/zr4BgC

     

    WTB, any thing new from your Altoona connection?
    10 Apr 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I sent off an email this PM, but will be out most of the evening, so it'll be a while before I have anything.

     

    I did rephrase my question though from NS 999 to "electric locomotive" ... just in case :-)
    10 Apr 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    My source reports nothing has changed in Altoona.

     

    Perhaps we need some additional sources in Roanoke!
    11 Apr 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update. Was hoping that they had started OTR testing, but will have to wait for more information.

     

    Anyone in Virginia?!
    11 Apr 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Germany creating massive offshore wind farm:

     

    "Chancellor Angela Merkel is planning to build offshore wind farms that will cover an area six times the size of New York City and erect power lines that could stretch from London to Baghdad. The program will cost 200 billion euros ($263 billion), about 8 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2011, according to the DIW economic institute in Berlin."

     

    http://natpo.st/Hvp37b

     

    ####

     

    RIP, David Anthony. (I was fortutious in meeting David. He gave me his business card, told me I could call him at any time. He seemed a very kind man.)
    10 Apr 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Merkel badly wants to get re-elected this year. The fact that offshore wind has never been proven to be economical at any scale is telling. It's a political ploy, as was her flip flop on Nuclear energy. WAS good; NOW bad.

     

    Like most pols, she seems to think she needs to be elected Just Once More and she can fix the world's problems. If she can fix Germany without using nuke energy she will be near magical.
    8% of gross GNP! Wow. That's a government boondoggle with a vengeance!

     

    I wonder if the planning/design of the windmill farm will ever admit the need for massive storage to be useful?
    10 Apr 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I believe the next German federal election is for the Bundestag, to be held between September and October 2013.
    11 Apr 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    >Trip: You are correct. Merkel has until then to convince the German public that she's the one.
    11 Apr 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    "Merkel has until then to convince the German public that she's the one."

     

    She's no Christopher Lambert. "There can be only one."

     

    [obscure movie reference, 1 a.m. and I have two hours of work to go... ]
    12 Apr 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    When it comes to the Highlander movies, pity there wasn't only one
    12 Apr 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    i fell asleep in the theater trying to watch highlander two. ever since then i always wanna try again, but without putting any money into the venture.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (274) | Send Message
     
    I'm certain you'll be a much happier person if you never watch any of the sequels.
    13 Apr 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Yech! Excluding the 28K AH trade at $0.418, our buy:sell ended at 1:12.36! "Sells" 19,598, "buys" 270,400 and "unknown" 17,100.

     

    I knew it was going to end up nasty, but this was larger than I can ever recall.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Apr 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1966) | Send Message
     
    HTL-

     

    I must be missing something: People sold 19,589 shares and bought 270,400 shares. Sound OK. Sorry, but what am I misunderstanding?

     

    Thank you,

     

    G
    10 Apr 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    he switched the buy/sells. i gotta good feeling about this. shed weak hands today.
    10 Apr 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Right there with you! weak hands this month/quarter means hockey stick charts on the news we expect in the next month or two...
    10 Apr 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! You're right. "buys" 19,598, "sells" 242,400.

     

    Apoplectic apologies to all!

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Another start-stop app? (eh... just making that up... just cool future technology)
    http://bit.ly/I1fI0Z
    10 Apr 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    I have a dear friend who is Paraplegic due to Spina bifida who lives in Europe (Spain). I will be forwarding this to his caretakers.... thanks for the link.

     

    Jason
    11 Apr 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Although I don't know much about wheelchair technology (luckily), I thought the front loading aspect of that very unique. I did the Camino de Santiago on bicycle a few years ago and saw a couple people in wheelchairs doing the same. I can't imagine how exhausting that would be and have lots of admiration for those people.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3120) | Send Message
     
    Thanks of the link. I worked on the Segway iBot a while back, trying to get an updated version to market. This robot looks superior in many aspects. The truly sad part is that the US did not develop this (it's from Turkey), and with our FDA malignant bureaucracy, it will be many years before it will be allowed into the US, and probably will never be insurance-reimbursable. Licensing a robotic wheelchair is essentially the same process as licensing an artificial heart - years long, tedious, and stupidly expensive, with the added benefit that the technology approved is seriously outdated by final approval. In-stream improvements tend to lengthen the approval times even more.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    a recommendation of axpw shares from: http://bit.ly/IxGwMn
    Michael Murphy
    11 Apr 2012, 05:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    good find Metro. I am glad to see AXPW showing up in these letters.
    11 Apr 2012, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Um, I wonder about this.

     

    "Exide (XIDE) is a battery manufacturer recovering from a 2002-2004 bankruptcy filing. New management has rationalized the company, and the upcoming switch to stop-start microhybrids will create opportunities, as they have a technology agreement with Axion Power".

     

    Does he know something we don't or is he just reading from 3-year old DOE grants?

     

    Too bad he didn't mention the other applications or why Axion PbC is likely to *dominate* s/s.

     

    RTK? IIRC I flagged this in 2009 (or 2010?) for entry in 2012. He's late to the party, if he looks at the charts over the last 3 years.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Murphy isn't to well versed on the Exide/Axion relationship as it exists today. But sometimes any publicity is better than none.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Every year on Exide's DOE update they list Axion as their strategic partner to "supply advanced carbon technology". Axion and Exide still have some kind of "technology agreement" as he stated. The details of that current agreement might be a little fuzzy, but there is no reason to suspect they have no relationship.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    IIRC Exide will manufacture batteries with Axion's electrodes if the customer demands PbC technology.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    I subscribe to Murphy's service. Just my opinion, and maybe JP is just modest, but I think Mr. Murphy follows JP. I think Mr. Petersen is the reason Murphy recommends both Axion and Exide.

     

    Without going into detail, I don't think Murphy knows that much more than us other JP "groupies".
    11 Apr 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I Think the same thing.
    11 Apr 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "but I think Mr. Murphy follows JP."

     

    Perhaps but then no mention of the PowerCube or Grid Storage?!?
    11 Apr 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    The article linked to above looks like a teaser piece to me. Murphy's going to sell more subscriptions talking about Hybrid cars than he is an emerging market most people have never heard of.

     

    Murphy did write a little bit about the Navy order and Viridity deal in his newsletter. I'm sure he'll write a lot when a substantial order happens. In the meantime, he's got several dozen other companies to cover.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    apm...my thinking exactly as I read the report
    12 Apr 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    New Military lab to test & create energy efficient bases:
    http://yhoo.it/IsgKro
    11 Apr 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "Officials said the Energy Department would fund a $30 million research competition to develop new types of batteries and other energy storage devices to reduce the need for refueling during combat, cut operation and maintenance costs and make Navy ships more efficient."
    DOE has another opportunity to use their "quivering palm technique" on battery companies.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    The last we heard about Exide/Axion... TG said, They have their projects, and we have our projects,,,and we have some together.
    I think that was said in the summer of 2011.
    IMO neither side wants to burn bridges, but still believe Exide's behavior has been much like the bully who rides in the back of the bus, and keeps flicking the ear lobes of the younger kid sitting in front of him.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I tend to think of them as the big fish who invited the smaller fish for lunch, but I've always been a bit paranoid.
    11 Apr 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Reminds me of one of my favorite Shel Silverstein poems:

     

    Fish?
    The little fish eats the tiny fish,
    The big fish eats the little fish-
    So only the biggest fish get fat.
    Do you know any folks like that?
    11 Apr 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Sure, the "fattest" fish I know put out a warning long ago:

     

    "Hold Still, Little Fish, All We Intend To Do is Gut You." - Malcolm Bryan, president of the Atlanta Fed, from an October 1957 speech regarding the net effect of "premeditated inflation" on the average money-saving citizen.
    11 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Wow! That's an expected POV, isn't it?

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    >HTL: Or maybe prescient POV?
    11 Apr 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Wait, since when does the average American save money?
    11 Apr 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1702) | Send Message
     
    More news on island economics, renewables and the PowerCube's competition: 3MW Battery to be on Kodiak Island

     

    http://bit.ly/HH8lQP
    11 Apr 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Fun with lithium....

     

    http://bit.ly/IlEaRr
    11 Apr 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Finding the limits of the Chevy Volt's battery:

     

    >>WWJ Auto Beat Reporter Jeff Gilbert said lithium-ion batteries, which are used to power the Chevy Volt, have a tendency to overheat.

     

    “At these laboratories they stress the batteries to the maximum to make sure they’re safe for drivers. So, this is an area where they do a lot of their very important research and it just goes to show that sometimes things happen,” said Gilbert.<<

     

    BOOM!.... things happen.

     

    http://cbsloc.al/IlKhoS
    11 Apr 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Well, apparently it failed that test.
    11 Apr 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    These problems are going to slow down bringing new products to market...only a matter of time until consumers shy away too.
    11 Apr 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Let's not get too snarky here.

     

    We have no idea what happened. Maybe somebody was just human today ... a really bad no good day at the office.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    The problem is that that human who had a bad day walked into a GM plant to work and a battery exploded blowing out windows and doors sending him or his colleague to a hospital with chemical burns. Snarky or not that battery failed the test.

     

    A couple weeks ago A123 had a recall from batteries missing a welding joint and now this. The two issues put together might be on someone's mind this morning climbing into their leaf or Volt who just might end up in a similar "extreme test" on the highway causing the same kind of explosion. I know cars blow-up from time to time but are they working at making cars less safe or more safe. When a firefighter goes to the scene of the next Volt or Leaf accident; what question will he be asking himself about the lithium-ion battery still in the car?

     

    If anything is fair in this world I would not be surprised to start hearing about recalls on cars with Lithium-ion batteries in the not-too distant future, but we know how this gov. is goo-goo-gaa-gaa over lithium-ion so it probably won't happen.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1966) | Send Message
     
    This will require a LOT of batteries: http://bloom.bg/I4yeWp
    11 Apr 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    12:43 PM An explosion at a General Motors (GM +1.5%) battery lab in Detroit injures two workers. The company says the accident occurred during testing of a prototype battery unrelated to the oft-discussed Chevy Volt. Comment! [Consumer]
    11 Apr 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The WSJ is now reporting "The battery involved in Wednesday's incident was being developed for a new line of all-electric cars and is manufactured by A123 Systems Inc., AONE +6.20% people familiar with the situation said. An official from A123 was not immediately available for comment."

     

    http://on.wsj.com/HxfobJ
    11 Apr 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    WOW....did I miss a big buy...AXPW just jumped to .445
    11 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    And bid/ask right now id $0.435/$0.4448.

     

    Market-maker managing the market here.

     

    The buy:sell at 12:44 is a very reasonable 1:1.14 on 58.8K traded.

     

    This is what I prefer - a nice steady grind up. If it goes on for a while, yesterday's rotten buy:sell fades to oblivion in my memory.

     

    And it starts to change what the charts will show too. Just need to see volume staying decent and/or increasing.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    I can't find much about Xtreme's battery. I wonder how similar it is to PbC? Here's a job posting looking for a product engineer to work on "new lead acid designs".
    http://bit.ly/Ih5JXF
    11 Apr 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Their powercells and materials used don't appear to be much like the PbC at all http://bit.ly/rPgYH2

     

    They also use copper and tellerium; copper can be volatile in pricing the product and my understanding is that tellerium is a darn rare metal with a high atomic number. Not necessarily the first metal I think of when deciding to build a battery, but maybe some of our metallurgists can shine a little more light on it.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Tellurium is not available in large amounts in the high purity form needed for such a purpose.

     

    The current price is high, even in China, where it is $3500 - $3600 FOB China according to Asia Metals:

     

    http://bit.ly/Hxnj8V

     

    Great Western Minerals looks to be the most likely source ex-China with production cranking up around the beginning of 2014 if we are lucky. They just upgraded their Steenkampskraal resource estimate for tellurium (plus many other valuable rare earth elements), which might be hopeful for future supplies:

     

    http://bit.ly/ItIdck

     

    I cover more detail here on SA:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Apr 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, meant to add that the price is per KILO.

     

    Expensive stuff. If they need more than a tiny trace amount its hard to envision the project going anywhere at a commercial level...

     

    Maybe if they can sell it to NASA or the ESA...
    11 Apr 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jakurtz.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Tellurium is even worse than you imagine. According to the USGS, Tellurium production in 2011 was about 115 tons worldwide.

     

    http://on.doi.gov/ICEFRE

     

    The biggest user in the world is First Solar which uses tellurium in its cadmium telluride solar cells.

     

    Unless Xtreme Power is only using trace amounts of Tellurium, they have a monster resource constraint problem.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1702) | Send Message
     
    "Xtreme has been quiet on how much its battery tech costs, but Sam Jaffe, analyst at IDC Energy Insights, told us a few years back that Xtreme has been targeting around $500 per kilowatt-hour as a profitable price point for grid storage systems. Xtreme says it has already installed 22 MW of batteries and its management system, and plans another 55 MW by the end of the year.

     

    Xtreme Power is backed by SAIL Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, the venture arm of Dow, Fluor, Dominion Power, Spring Ventures, BP, Posco, and Skylake Incuvest."

     

    http://bit.ly/ICSBem
    11 Apr 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    Here's a treatise on tellurium from Jack Lifton for reference. It sounds like tellurium production isn't likely to dramatically increase even if copper production increases, as more copper is being extracted by solvent rather than electroplating and thus tellurium is not recovered.
    http://bit.ly/HCN1tV
    11 Apr 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Xtreme Power says $360 per Kilowatt-hour for its battery pack:

     

    "A 1.5 MW system (not just the batteries) retails for $1.6 million, or roughly $1,000 per kilowatt, Coe said. That price point makes Xtreme’s equipment competitive with a peaking power plant that is turned on to supply power during peak demand, Coe said. This system can produce 1 MWh of energy, and the retail price for replacing the battery pack in the system is $360,000, or $360 per Kilowatt-hour, Coe said."
    http://bit.ly/HPHUEK
    12 Apr 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Xtreme Power's business plan is of interest to we Axionistas. This is from Renewable Energy World:

     

    The company makes money in several ways. It sells the equipment to customers who can operate the systems themselves or hire Xtreme to do it. It also leases the equipment or sells service agreements that has Xtreme owning and operating the systems for customers. . .

     

    Later this year, Xtreme plans to launch smaller systems for “community storage” or even energy storage for homes and businesses. Home and business owners may want to bank the solar electricity from their rooftop panels, and utilities are looking at using energy storage to help them regulate the grid’s health and provide backup power during blackouts. Xtreme will be launching systems from as small as 5 KW to hundreds of kilowatts each, Coe said. Utilities are looking for systems in the 25 KW range."

     

    http://bit.ly/HPHUEK
    12 Apr 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    From Renewable Energy World:
    "Xtreme’s technology is a bit of a mystery. It’s never disclosed publicly the core materials used for the battery cells, which the company’s website describes as using alloys such as lead, copper and tellurium. It’s a “dry cell” because the cells are electrically isolated from one another inside a battery pack and contains an electrolyte that isn’t a liquid, gel or paste, Coe said. Liquid electrolytes can be conductive and flammable as they react with other components of the cell, a problem that has inspired a number of startups such as Seeo to develop solid-state electrolytes.

     

    Xtreme Power also has designed a current collector, which is used to ferry electricity out of the cell, that is made with ballistic-grade fiber and topped with a “special alloy," Coe said.

     

    “If you stabilize the electrolyte you get a very predictable, stable battery response,” Coe said. “All cells are electrically isolated from each other. It’s a very different than any other types of batteries that I know of.”

     

    While the battery technology has invited speculations, Coe said the bulk of the company’s technical expertise is actually found in the software and hardware that control the performance of the overall battery system and its integration into the control systems of a utility or power project developer."
    http://bit.ly/HPHUEK
    12 Apr 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I like their business plan, they may or may not be successful, but it should move product.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Has Interest in Hybrids Run Out of Gas?

     

    http://bit.ly/ItItrS
    11 Apr 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Mag: Yesterday, I read an article where it was stated that only 35% of hybrid owners re-up with another hybrid.

     

    (Micro case study) Four years ago, when JP and I first butted heads, there were about 5 or 6 Prius' in my cluster homes parking lot. Now there are only two. All have been replaced by Hondas or Subarus, or VWs.

     

    I believe I'm the only one still with a gas guzzler; a Ford Explorer. I guess this is what happens when one lives around a bunch of purple haired widowers.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    In TX, the retail rate of electricity is 5.4 cents / kwh + another 2.9 cents/kwh for transmission, for a total of $0.083 /kwh. Transmission has been separated (different companies) from generation here. That means the energy provider can acquire the power for less than $0.054/kwh. At a capital cost of $500/kwh (mentioned for an Axion competitor), that is 5952 full charges. Not taking into account what transmission provider would do here. If I could sell the $0.054 power for 3x, at $0.162/kwh, the cycles go down by half to 2976. In the peak of summer, the spot price can be more than 10x higher than this, which is where Viridity would come in. $500 is an expensive container for a nickel's worth of product.
    11 Apr 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    For the foreseeable future, the game in storage will be buying off peak power at the cheapest possible rate and taking the power out of storage during peak hours to avoid commercial demand charges and variable peak power charges, which as you've noted can be 10x or more the flat retail rate. A few years back a client operated a 10 MW turbine in Houston that they wouldn't even warm up till the 15 minute rate hit $250 per MW.
    11 Apr 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    $250 may be only when they start thinking about warming up. Adding some PBC at the backup plant would allow them more time and fewer false starts to bring high-value capacity on-line.

     

    "..the Texas wholesale market is designed to see about 30 hours of maximum, $3,000-per-megawatt prices each year. That would allow a backup plant to cover its costs."

     

    http://dallasne.ws/Iuq26g
    11 Apr 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Another Axion mention ...

     

    http://bit.ly/Hvy7nz
    11 Apr 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I sure wish we would see something that said 2013 instead of 2015-17

     

    "Lux Research in a recent report forecasts the global sales of micro-hybrid idle elimination vehicles at 39 million vehicles annually by 2017, including about 22 million medium micro-hybrids and 8 million large micro-hybrids. This revolution is just beginning to unfold in the U.S., which is lagging Europe and Asia."
    11 Apr 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): Took 31.4% profit *friction included) 3/22-4/11. Hoped for more as volume rose as price dropped yesterday but today volume reduced and price started showing sings of consolidation.

     

    Wish I'd bought 10 contracts instead of 3!

     

    But it was a good learning for trying to have confidence in the face of what I think was a "pump and dump" opertion courtesy of Wunderlich Securities.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on your trade HTL....I like to see you act on your hard work and be rewarded in the end..
    Nothing wrong with staying small until your more confident.
    11 Apr 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on a nice play, HTL!
    11 Apr 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Thx! And when I get more confident I'll get ravaged by "Mr. Market"! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Cha ching! WTG, HTL!
    11 Apr 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Thx Mercy and Maya - I figure that pays for more shares of AXPW.

     

    Compounding (hopefully) at work down the road. It'll be like getting them for free!

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (274) | Send Message
     
    Pays for more shares of AXPW! - we think alike, HTL!
    11 Apr 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I know what you mean, HTL...

     

    I find myself with Axion on the mind a lot...

     

    Caught myself looking at a loaf of bread at the store, thinking "...that's 4 shares of AXPW... That cheap brand over there is only 3 shares...."
    11 Apr 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (274) | Send Message
     
    and I think ironic thing about this is that he's buying AXPW with profits he made from Tesla. :)
    11 Apr 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think the word you were looking for was poetic rather than ironic. WTG HTL!
    11 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Thanks all! I think we have another shot coming up when this news filters out to the EVangelists, as JP has named them. Hm, maybe that's why it consolidated today instead of continuing down as yesterday's chart suggested should happen.

     

    Anyway, I expect only a short-term consolidation and then it might do another run up. But if it closes below $31.65 on good volume, I'm attacking again as it should be good for *at_least* a $2 drop before it encounters *minor* resistance (also commonly called "congestion" as it's generally more of a pause for indecision within a trend and not a demonstrated major reversal point). Lots of these sorts of points laying around.

     

    "Tesla Expands Its European Footprint"

     

    The long and short (no pun intended) of it is
    =========
    ... will open its newest showroom and service center in Norway's largest city, at Verkseier Furulundsvei 16, 0668 Oslo ...

     

    ... center will be similar to other state-of-the-art Tesla service centers in London, Eindhoven and California ...

     

    =========

     

    And goes on to say how well the roadster has sold there, there's only a few left, ... and then some (apparent) customers kick in with testimonials.

     

    A short read.

     

    http://prn.to/HCYtWs

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    WTKA HTL !!!

     

    ++++

     

    TB... you just changed my whole perspective on life... what the heck am I doing spending over 60 shares of AXPW for my wife and I to go to a 3D movie?
    11 Apr 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "Caught myself looking at a loaf of bread at the store, thinking "...that's 4 shares of AXPW... That cheap brand over there is only 3 shares...."

     

    Too funny!! our new monetary system based on AXPW shares...
    11 Apr 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3698) | Send Message
     
    Wow, free ad space written as an article. I'm small potatoes, but it seems to me to be high risk to open a service center in a country when there are only 75 existing customers with a high dollar product.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    How many vehicles were actually available for sale?
    11 Apr 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3698) | Send Message
     
    Not sure how to reply, the article stated 2500 total (I am assuming worldwide) with approx. 200 left to sell (again assuming worldwide). It seems they are counting on many sales of the new S model, when available.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting observation.

     

    If we are correct, the cost of a bread loaf will be less than 1/2 an AXPW share by end of year.

     

    Of course here in my island paradise I can't buy a loaf of bread for less than $5.60 so I wont be buying bread any time soon.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Gluten free is the way to go!
    11 Apr 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Anyone know off the cuff what Tesla's cash resources are and their burn rate? I suppose the quick answer is in JP's quarterly round-up article. I'll go check.
    11 Apr 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to a $465M loan guarantee from the DOE they reported as of Dec. 31 $255M in cash. Last year they burned about $60M/quarter.
    11 Apr 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >jackstraw1 ... My guess ... Market Order and not a Limit Order.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Carlosaguivera posted this very interesting grant opportunity on one of John's articles.

     

    Is this a grant to fix the Telsa brick issue?

     

    http://bit.ly/IBe5NC
    11 Apr 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I read it as a freebie to help their favored sector, EVs.

     

    Throw in some grid storage, which has fewer issues because they are better managed and run in a more consistent environment, to mask what they really want to accomplish.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Apr 2012, 05:00 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Elon Musk (of Tesla, SpaceX) interviewed on Jon Stewart's Daily Show: http://bit.ly/HzpY6m
    11 Apr 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    If we get NS up and going well, this could come into play a couple of years later: (I can't access the entire article, but GE likes electric)

     

    GE & CAT face off in Locomotive factory race:
    http://on.wsj.com/Iorxnp
    12 Apr 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    With GE as AONE's largest shareholder, and recent AONE failures, Makes me think that AXPW becomes more valuable with each one.

     

    It's just speculation but AONE needs something concrete that works & is safe, combined with GE's locomotive division....could warrant speculation. Strange things could happen if AXPW could start generating revenues soon.
    12 Apr 2012, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Shouldn't Cat be working with AXPW in order to compete against GE's sodium battery? It would give them an early advantage although not a long term solution.
    12 Apr 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    It could go either way, I leaned toward GE because I am not sure CAT wants in the battery business.
    I think the GE sodium battery will be more geared to grid storage, it will be big & heavy, as in huge from what I have read.
    12 Apr 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    CAT is already in the battery business to some degree. They have their own battery label (not sure who supplies them). All of their equipment have batteries in them that provide a critical function. Time is money when it comes to equipment and if you can't start it, it is of no use. The batteries were important enough to CAT to spur the development of the Firefly. It is a shame it could not be mass produced.

     

    I would very much like to see AXPW and CAT come together to produce the PbC for their existing market as well as the emerging storage markets. Imagine a black battery case with a big yellow sticker on top with "PbC" in the lower right hand corner...

     

    CAT is a major parts provider and service center for other heavy equipment. They would be a very nice partner indeed.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Imagine the regenerative braking we could get on some of CAT's dump tracks and haulers when loaded and working the big mining pits with the winding roads along the sides of the huge pits.

     

    Savings on brake wear and tear and fuel should be tremendous.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Apr 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    CAT, DE, and many other equipment manufacturers sell a labeled battery, but NONE of them build batteries. For the most part a branded battery by John Deere is much higher quality and heavier than a battery off the shelf at auto-zone or walmart or any other battery reseller. They are more expensive too.

     

    I would like to see an agreement too, but I just don't see it for now...CAT does not want to sell an electric train, they want their engines in them....they are especially pushing the 2 large engines backed up by a smaller one for fuel savings.....for CAT, selling 3 engines is better than two.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >H.T. Love ... If you're looking for a natural intersection between CAT & AXPW via existing technology, look no further than the rails through R.J. Corman & NS. It would be a ready made development platform with supporting revenue streams.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I keep reminding myself that the PbC is an energy battery not a power battery.
    My sense is that a starter battery for a major piece of equipment might take more Power. But the regenerative stop and go for some of that equipment sounds like an exciting possibility.

     

    I expect conferences which keep spouting the benefits of Start/stop and the recognition that the PbC solves the dynamic charge acceptance problem will do wonders for having other companies contact Axion and their marketing arm.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Dr. R...in my post above Tim, I mentioned "revenues" for AXPW...this is what I am talking about also.
    These relationships are possible, but we need revenues coming in first....
    I sure hope we see a confirmation in the form of a major purchase order soon.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Futurist...I expect that JP will agree that the waiting is for purchase orders now, the contacting has probably already been done.

     

    IMO, we are just waiting for a final product configuration and BMS tailored to auto now. Question is what year model ?

     

    I still expect RR & Grid first, auto last.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Futurist:

     

    ...I keep reminding myself that the PbC is an energy battery not a power battery.
    According to what I learned from JP and this forum, AXPW is a Power Battery.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    LT. Yes, more expensive because they are industrial grade as opposed to consumer grade (as you said). CAT's reach goes well beyond JD and into markets JD may never enter. Basically, CAT=POWER in just about every instance one can dream up.

     

    Having 3 gensets instead of two is very efficient but you can't capture the stored kinetic energy in that third genset. CAT will eventually provide storage and AXPW is the perfect fit because AXPW=POWER too <smile>...
    12 Apr 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    DRich, exactly! see I did read the RJ Corman link you sent <smile>...
    12 Apr 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... As to "Major" P.O., I'm not holding my breath for that one. I don't believe the initial product ramp will fall into what the market considers "Major". If & when Customer No. 1 shows up, the buy should be enough to make everyone here quite happy but we think differently than the market and Axion hasn't pushed that rock to the top of Mt. OEM yet. I'm content with deliberate & slow.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I was mechanical engineer, now I'm a happy retired. It is tremendous the amount of fuel lost in construction equipment. They do not go out (Stop) when they stop work pending proceeding. They also need SS.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, the only thing better than an ultracapacitor for starting an engine is the PbC. But the question has always been why use a PbC when an LA would do? first, LA just won't do in an industrial application. Why would CAT R&D a better battery if it would? Second, it is always better to more capacity than the duty cycle calls for...
    12 Apr 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Shame on me for getting it backward.

     

    Maybe that is why they call it the PowerCube.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, I agree and believe we will see some form of SS in all fuel based systems.in the future. We have had all sorts of idle-reduction/elimina... for years in the trucking industry...
    12 Apr 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    Concerning "very efficient", there's another way to look at that - "capital efficient".

     

    Two large and one small "genset" seems to me to be much less capital efficient as compared to,say, two gensets and a bunch of batteries (possibly with rgen braking?), when the maintenance cost and downtime are factored in.

     

    Looking at it from a TCO perspective I think a lot of potential *customers* would be looking at such as this. It's one of the reasoins that NG E & P outfits are using CPST micro-turbines in place of diesel IC engines in the oil fields and for pumping stations now.

     

    ISTM that *some* for the same sort of considerations *might* sway folks to look at a two genset and battery set-up.

     

    But since I've never worked in those areas I could just be daydreaming here.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Apr 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    HTL...I think the total cost of a RR PowerCube so to speak, with a BMS, could run approx. $1million, that's a lot more than an engine cost.
    I think in time, compared to the cost of a Locomotive, it is still doable because of the obvious EPA considerations....espe... rail yards and terminals. OTR is just a bonus....RR's are just like auto's, taking the low hanging fruit first.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    HTL. Perhaps it's just daydream but one we share...
    12 Apr 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... The railroads' primary interest is the OTR. That is where the money to be saved is. It is also the hardest to design for because of the multitude of variables. EPA & citizen complaints aside, developing an electric yard switcher is the logical place to start because it is, more or less, a controlled environment ... a real world lab.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    The PbC is biased towards Power applications because of its "capacitor like" characteristics. That is, it can deliver large amounts of Power for short periods with no danger of damaging the electrochemical portion of the cell.
    This makes it ideal for IC engine starting, where lots of Amps are required for 2-5 seconds. My guess is that it could be downsized in Energy storage capacity by 2 or 3X for an equivalent starting job, compared to other Lead-Acid batteries.
    That makes it much lighter and smaller for the same job. It should also have the increased cycle life of the PbC, although maybe not the 200k+ shallow cycles that have been demonstrated in the Stop-Start testing cycle if it is downsized as I proposed.

     

    So my guess is that after gaining experience with the PbC, the heavy equipment makers might well prefer it for Engine Starting service because of its higher reliability and longer life. The cost might even be very similar to AGM if the downsizing idea works out.

     

    Nice niche market and an intro to "other things".
    12 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    SHB

     

    "So my guess is that after gaining experience with the PbC, the heavy equipment makers might well prefer it for Engine Starting service because of its higher reliability and longer life. The cost might even be very similar to AGM if the downsizing idea works out."

     

    Which in an industrial/heavy equipment means selecting the correct number of batteries instead of changing the form factor. Most installations are in a bank. I have space for 4 AGM and could easily get by with 2 PbC especially when you consider part of the reason for 4 was cold weather.

     

    I like that intro to "other things". I would be happy if the PbC could just become part of the CAT mixture...
    12 Apr 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Mr John:
    The heavy equipment is like a car, they have air conditioned and other things.
    Have a good day.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    "HTL...I think the total cost of a RR PowerCube so to speak, with a BMS, could run approx. $1million, that's a lot more than an engine cost."

     

    I seem to remember the standard PowerCube to be around $1M but a bulk of that cost was the 3 phase inverter with multiple input/output options. The inverter for the RR (if one is needed) should be much less and since we are talking about a hybrid we wouldn't need as many batteries. I am seeing something more like a miniCube in the configuration HTL and I were dreaming about.

     

    Were you talking about the whole engine configuration where they pair it with a prime mover?
    12 Apr 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article: Could increase demand response systems and shows the broad reach that IBM has.

     

    Electric Cars to tell Smart Grid when to charge them:
    http://yhoo.it/Iiz1Fx
    12 Apr 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    9:44 AM A lithium-ion battery manufactured by A123 Systems (AONE -1.9%) is behind the injury-causing explosion at a General Motors (GM +0.6%) battery lab, according to reports. 1 Comment [On the Move, Energy]
    12 Apr 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://fxn.ws/IygxDi Here's the link. Chevy Spark pack blew up...
    12 Apr 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    (AONE) back to a penny stock, $.91 and dropping...
    12 Apr 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I will add one thing .... don't underestimate what this could do or has the potential to do...and that is to speed up adoption to PbC....as to AONE:
    You don't blow up GM's newest/latest test lab and get away with it !

     

    To me, this makes AXPW & PbC more valuable today than it was Monday.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Agree, how can this be good for the lithium battery industry? lithium=hydrogen as in the Hindenburg... okay maybe a little carried away?
    12 Apr 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    For some reason the stories of lithium ion batteries already in commercial applications and causing fires and now explosions juxtaposed with Axion's long and seemingly never ending testing reminds of the story of the tortoise and the hare ...

     

    slow and steady wins the race.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    This appears to be the one that was reported yesterday. Was there one again today?
    12 Apr 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    No, but IIRC there was the reported fire in the Volt and investigation into that a couple months ago.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    It's the same one from yesterday, this one just confirms that it was AONE for the Chevy car.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    For those interested in Graphite/ graphene as a natural mineral.

     

    Its the carbon base of natural graphite that lithium batteries and other users desire.

     

    Here are a couple of links that I recently received which starts the exploration process if your interested in miners of the material. What strikes me is the amount of graphite needed for any large project.

     

    http://bit.ly/Iyg97Q

     

    http://bit.ly/IxJo86

     

    Disclaimer. I am new to learning about this and have no experience in mining or natural material stocks. My real interest is in finding an investment opportunity in the carbons needed to make millions of PbCs. I just found this interesting.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The PbC doesn't use graphite or graphene. It uses activated carbon made from plant materials because they already have the natural nanostructures and circulatory systems that nature designed into the plants in the first place. The scientific reasons why plant based carbons perform better in the PbC than mineral carbons or man-made carbon nanostructures are way beyond my depth, but I've listened to the guys who do understand the differences speak at length about the critical importance of the natural nanostructures. Besides, activated carbon from coconut husks is always going to be more plentiful than top grade mined or manufactured carbon.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Here is an easy to read paper about activated carbon that helps us to understand how the microstructure differences in carbons from different sources affect their chemical performance. Pore size significantly affects adsorption and reactivity.

     

    http://bit.ly/I6lp10

     

    My recollection of reading about carbon additives in LA batteries is that certain pore sizes ("mesopores") may prevent the lead sulfate crystals from growing so large that they cannot be redissolved into free lead and sulfate ions - this is how carbon additives may prevent sulfated plates that degrade function.

     

    I am sure there are other effects that are important in the capacitance and charge acceptance effects in the PbC system. Surface area of the carbon plates at the nanostructure level is increased with smaller and more numerous pores, which increases the area available for reactions and electron adsorption, but beyond a certain size, smaller pores may slow the electrolyte diffusion and reduce the effectiveness and dynamic charge acceptance. That is my understanding of it.
    12 Apr 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Another fun video:

     

    Remember when Axion was having trouble with the carbon sheeting process? Getting the carbon made into an electrode?
    Maybe a 3-D printer would have been a better answer. Just print the electrode.

     

    The science here makes my head spin
    http://bit.ly/I68f3P

     

    Doing it with metal
    http://bit.ly/HL0JNk
    12 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3120) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, don't confuse graphite and graphene. They are both essentially hexagonal pure carbon, but have little else in common.

     

    Graphite is natural; it is a mined mineral. It is found in various grades of purity and alignments of massive hexagonal crystal. http://bit.ly/HCIYlU. It costs in the hundreds of dollars per ton.

     

    Graphene is a man-made nano-structure allotrope of carbon. Hexagonal sheets exactly one atom thick. Its nano structure gives it some remarkable properties, and is very expensive. In 2008 it was considered the most expensive substance on earth, costing $100,000,000 per cm3, according to Wikipedia http://bit.ly/Huo3wm. The price has dropped a lot since then. Almost anything involving nano-materials is extraordinarily expensive and is highly unlikely to be part of commercial products until manufacturing cost drops many orders of magnitude.

     

    As an aside, diamond is a bargain compared to graphene. Diamond, another allotrope of carbon, is cubic, not hexagonal, and also has some incredible industrial uses beyond abrasives. One of diamond's unique properties is that it is a semiconductor, yet has extremely high thermal conductivity. This could permit a diamond microprocessor to run at exceptional speeds and not overheat.

     

    However, my (poor) memory is that Axion is not using mined graphite as their carbon source, but is using activated carbon derived from corn cobs. I don't have a link; confirmation would be appreciated.

     

    Regardless whether Axion is using mined graphite or bio-sourced carbon, I cannot see any possible concerns (or profit opportunities) about availability of the raw material for anode production. Scaling the raw carbon to anode quality levels process is a totally separate issue.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I did not mean to suggest that graphite and graphene were the same. It was the article that joined the two.
    All reports I read on graphene talk about amazing properties. Somewhere in the future this substance will be available and it will be used in much more than batteries.

     

    Being to early to the party is not good for most investment portfolios. I simply hope I can keep up with developments and find the right company at the right time.

     

    Thanks by the way for the primer on graphene. Nice simple explanation.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Rick, It is made from coconut fibers, but I can't seem to find a link to confirm it so...?
    12 Apr 2012, 10:42 AM Reply <