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  • Axion Power Concentrator 89: April 17, 2012: What A 300% Revenue Increase Really Means By Futurist 209 comments
    Apr 24, 2012 1:12 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    WHAT A 300% REVENUE INCREASE REALLY MEANS: By Futurist

    The ever upbeat Tom Granville stated several times that he expects 2012 revenue to increase 300+%. He wasn't anticipating 400%, maybe 350%. He went on to indicate that 2013 should be similar. He even went so far as to predict that 2013 would be the year that Axion breaks even on a cash flow basis. These are unusual words for a CEO who has a tendency to stay pretty quiet when it comes to expectations. He wouldn't say them if it wasn't a very sure thing.

    The 2011 year brought $9 million into the company. A 300%+ increase would be about $30M worth of product in 2012 and $90M in 2013. I wanted to explore the possibilities as to what type of sales it would take to reach that ~$30M for 2012.

    First: Lead acid production. Granville spoke of Axion fulfilling its LAB toll contract without an untimely shipment and no warranty claims. He was proud of this fact. I would expect that next year the contract will be larger. The economy is growing and Axion has proven itself to be a good provider. Let's say they double the revenue from the $6M in 2011 to $12M in 2012, might be more might be less but that still leaves somewhere around $18M of revenue unaccounted for in 2012.

    Second: PbC production. 80,000 PbCs could be built and sold at $250 each; that is $20 Million. However, it is also maximum production of the existing negative electrode line for one year. I doubt that Axion has its robotic line cranked up to 100% production level and so far we have not heard anything about a second line being ordered. John Peterson has pointed out that when projecting these numbers we must keep in mind that only 20,000 PbCs can be produced each quarter. Since one quarter is almost passed without an announcement it would be foolish to project an 80,000 PbC run for the 2012 fiscal year. So we could say they could run 50,000 PbC's more or less but that is only about $12.5M in sales so they would still need another $7.5M in revenue from sources other than individual PbC battery sales to make up the rest of that $20M.

    Third: The PowerCube. Tom said he felt positive about the PowerCube and locomotive market for the 2012 year. Since ½ of the cost of a Cube is for inverters and components other than the PbC batteries, this looks like a likely suspect to make up a lagre portion of that $20M. A railroad locomotive is a PowerCube on wheels.
    A one MW PowerCube takes 1,000 PbCs
    One yard slug rail locomotive takes 1,080 PbCs
    One OTR Locomotive takes 1,600 PbCs.

    It would take less than 50 PowerCube orders to get to 50,000 PbC batteries. The componenets that come with the PowerCube's would make up the additional revenue needed to reach the 300% increase. This is possible; Axion is talking to more than one railroad, both Axion and Rosewater are pursuing the Oil Rig market for PowerCubes and the Navy ordered a small PowerCube which gives them some exposure for other energy efficient builders. Also, Rosewater will be introducing the first home PowerCube at the Indiana home show this September.

    Fourth: Utilities
    Pay for performance pricing will be instituted shortly. PJM is out in front pushing the "behind the meter" storage systems. They want their customers to store, smooth, and level the electricity presently being produced. This will save them in Capital expenditures and in operating expenses. Basically, when a company buys a PowerCube, the savings go direct to PJMs bottom line. Now PJM has a product that can accomplish what they want. Viridity has the software to operate it. PJMs former execs are the brains behind Viridity. PJM can now reduce their production (and capital expenditures) by getting their customers to buy a PowerCube.

    It will only take one major data center, college, university, or corporate complex to announce a PowerCube project that could provide the additional revenue Mr.Granville spoke about.

    Fifth: Auto and new markets
    When contemplating the 50,000 PbCs sales necessary to reach Axion's forecast one must not forget that more OEMs are talking to New Castle. More and larger testing projects for the PbCs must be completed. As testing progresses it takes more and more PbCs. As the GM mild hybrid program progresses I would expect a large number of batteries will be needed. The mild hybrid takes more batteries than a micro hybrid.

    Mr.Granville was very sure to tell us that "there is something I can't talk about".

    This came up when he was talking about the new opportunities for Axion. This new announcement will be within the next couple of months. It is impossible for me to determine which exciting area will be the next boom for Axion. If I had to guess, I would guess a major announcement from Viridity/PJM. If it were automotive then new production lines would be needed. It could be railroads. But if three different Railways ordered two locomotives each, that is only 6,000 PbCs.

    My guess is something big in the "behind the meter" area with Viridity/PJM. The fact that the Cube can pay for itself while accomplishing other duties is just to great an economic bargain. Since Tom Granville also thinks 2013 will be another 300% increase in revenue I suspect that the next announcement will be about some company that will be using multiple PowerCubes at one or more locations. This with an added automotive contract in 2013 could very well achieve break even on a cash flow basis for Axion in 2013.
    To me this all makes sense. But Axion has pulled secret rabbits from its hat before. I wouldn't be surprised to find out I was 180 degrees out of touch with Axion's reality.

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart on Concentrator Comments:

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the charts.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    -----------------------------
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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (210)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment by Occam's Razor:
    ======================...

     

    http://on.wsj.com/HQTUej

     

    I didn't know it was a secret...
    ======================...
    17 Apr 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Anyone care to start a pool on what day we reach APC 100? We could wager say, the value of 10 Axion shares on the date we reach APC 100...
    17 Apr 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    I would but all my betting money is tied up right now...

     

    May, 19
    17 Apr 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking Vani's presentation on May 3 pushes us through the 100 APC mark so I am going to say May 4th...
    17 Apr 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    Depend on how many more A123 batteries blow up between now and then!
    17 Apr 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Maya used to create a new APC around 130 comments so that it settled around 150 comments. It looks like we are averaging around 200 comments per APC after things settle. I should have taken this into consideration when I made my guess. Can I change my date<grin>?
    23 Apr 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Sure Tim.

     

    I forgot to make my wager due to SA tech problems I've had. I'll jump ahead of Maya and take May 10.
    23 Apr 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Hey Jon,

     

    Is this who can get the closest without going over? I'll take May 9th...
    23 Apr 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Whoever is closest... waiting for May 8th and 12th to be taken next
    :-)
    23 Apr 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    I was afraid you might say that...
    23 Apr 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Why bet when I'm already up a crown royal rack of lamb!

     

    Besides...before, I could control the outcome. ;-0

     

    Not betting, but posting, May 11.
    17 Apr 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Im in.

     

    May 15th
    17 Apr 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    OT, but interesting on a few levels..

     

    http://bit.ly/HQQbec

     

    Both for implications on the REE space and electric drive. Haven't watched the short video myself yet...
    17 Apr 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/IZlVgk

     

    The answer might end up "both work best in their specific application".
    17 Apr 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    From Concentrator 88
    From the WSJ today:
    High Cost of Electric Car Batteries Spills

     

    One of the auto industry's most closely guarded secrets—the enormous cost of batteries for electric cars—has spilled out.

     

    Speaking at a forum on green technology on Monday, Ford Motor Co. F +0.25% Chief Executive Alan Mulally indicated battery packs for the company's Focus electric car costs between $12,000 and $15,000 apiece.

     

    "When you move into an all-electric vehicle, the battery size moves up to around 23 kilowatt hours, [and] it weighs around 600 to 700 pounds," Mr. Mulally said at Fortune magazine's Brainstorm Green conference in California.

     

    "They're around $12,000 to $15,000 [a battery]" for a type of car that normally sells for about $22,000, he continued, referring to the price of a gasoline-powered Focus. "So, you can see why the economics are what they are."

     

    Ford is currently promoting its $39,200 Focus EV at events around the country. It has a 23 kilowatt-hour battery pack. A Ford spokeswoman said Mr. Mulally's comments were designed to provide a indication of the car's battery costs.

     

    Based on the price range that Mr. Mulally indicated, Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford appears to pay between $522 and $650 a kilowatt-hour for its electric-vehicle batteries. In the past, auto makers and battery makers have been reluctant to disclose the cost per kilowatt hour. Analysts have made projections that battery costs are between $500 and $1,000 per kilowatt-hour.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/HQ87ZZ
    17 Apr 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Maybe some hot and sultry day in the distant future, some threadbare panhandler will come up to you in NYC when you're stuck in traffic, and rather than begging to clean your windows, he offers up an impish, toothless smile, and asks, "Need some power?" as he points the grimy plug he's holding toward his little red wagon stacked with batteries.

     

    You look down at his wagon and feel fear leaping through your body, "That's the same brand that blew up in the Holland Tunnel two days ago!" you shriek.

     

    You peel out a $20 bill and tell the panhandler scurry that little red wagon away as quickly as possible.
    17 Apr 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    that was a nice piece of writing.
    18 Apr 2012, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Arrrgh, Metro...I left out one word, "to." But it was fun to write. Thanks.

     

    Maybe someday I'll write a short short about Archie yelling at Edith that some punk cut his EV power cord.
    18 Apr 2012, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    First try at posting a link, Hyundai offers lifetime hybrid battery replacement warranty on its 2012 Sonata:
    http://bit.ly/IVIqax
    17 Apr 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Thanks pascquale. Lifetime as long as you own the car. I wonder what their numbers are on how long they believe the original owner will keep the car...
    18 Apr 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Owners of new ICE cars will probably keep them longer and longer (a refleciton of higher quality standards, higher costs, and experience in the market). 10 years seems like a number a lot of folks shoot for. Of course, averaging in those who trade every year or every two years will tend to alter any average...

     

    Still, this Sonata battery pack promise will get considerable play. I do NOT see the other manufacturers matching this (and Hyundai has many qualifiers, including the usual language that any replacement must be due to "...defects in manufacture..." Being the ubercynic that I am, I wonder if they might not consider quibbling over the many "other" reasons batteries might fail, such as failing to treat them strictly according to the guidelines in the owner's manual (ie, the same loophole Tesla chose to escape a rain of bricks).

     

    As a marketing move, it is likely to propel their immediate sales (also likely at the expense of competing hybrid makers like Toyota).

     

    Mention is made in the warranty that they will also cover any costs or fees for recycling, which of course implies that they expect these costs and fees to be pervasive and high.

     

    It will be interesting to watch and see whether even Hyundai will expand this sort of coverage to their other lines, or offer it on next year's models.
    18 Apr 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Gerry W
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I think this a rather stupid advertisement , it shows all the situations where you do not want your battery to run out ,yet only promises a warranty on the battery ,not a ever lasting battery.
    It would put me off buying anything powered by battery.
    17 Apr 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    Another OT:

     

    http://bit.ly/I4iEhp

     

    BUT: An $11,000 delta to add CNG capability!? Rigggghhhht... Exasperating... what bunch of knuckleheads. But I guess it is some kind of progress. The price delta will surely come down as more mfgs offer the option...
    17 Apr 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    1. Where does Axion stand in terms of timing of becoming a real player in the car industry? ANSWER: Several US and European auto OEM's are in various stages of testing the PbC for stop start. The earliest projection for Axion receiving anything other than demonstration and test orders for the PBC was stated as at least 2 years from the 3rd Quarter Conference call 2011 in a telecon with one of the Axionistas after the conference call ended prematurely and TG called those of us who contacted the investor relations office when the conference call line died because the vendor handling the CC blew it.

     

    2. Where does Axion sit in all this? Is it only hybrid now and if so, is all electric very far off? ANSWER: Only one US OEM (GM) is testing the PbC for a mild hybrid application. All other testing to my knowledge is for micro-hybrid which translates to stop start only.

     

    3. is all electric very far off? ANSWER: Axion's PbC is not suitable for EV's.

     

    4. Why isn't Axion already a significant player in this area? Axion did not complete the development of its first genuine robotic production line until late in 2011 (November I think). OEM test programs are lengthy and Axion is still transitioning from a development stage company to commercial production. It is simply to early. Think sometime in mid to late 2013 as the first real chance of an automotive order.

     

    Why don't you go read some of John Peterson's articles and get up to speed?
    18 Apr 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Bangwhiz. I wasn't aware TG said that. However, if 3 years testing is just a couple of months away, it doesn't surprise me that mid-late next year would be the earliest for someone like BMW to order batteries. It makes sense, though.
    18 Apr 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall TG saying that on the cc last year. I think it was Averill that mentioned to someone in the spring/summer of last year that he felt conservatively auto would be 18months to 2 years out, which would put us end of this year to mid 2013. My understanding is that Averil notoriously holds expectations to a minimum per JP.
    18 Apr 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Pretty amazing article found by INDelco and posted on Yahoo.
    Not sure if link will work, but Google it to find this article from ALABC:
    http://bit.ly/IwJ1Ls
    18 Apr 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    The ALABC did a very nice job on that paper. It lays out the technical detail well and shows why lead-carbon is critical.

     

    If you spend some time studying Clayton Christensen's theory of disruptive technology you'll see that disruption always starts at the bottom with a low quality uses and climbs the food chain to achieve dominance in high quality uses over time.

     

    http://bit.ly/HSPV2h

     

    Disruption never involves technologies that are designed for the most demanding use working their way down the application food chain.
    18 Apr 2012, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    thanks for posting that
    18 Apr 2012, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    "Pretty amazing article found by INDelco and posted on Yahoo."

     

    Not the only good post INDelco has made, perhaps we can entice
    him/her to join our discussions here.
    18 Apr 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    INDelco's a great resource and I enjoy reading his links. He's been invited to join us here a couple times but seems to prefer Brand X.
    18 Apr 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    INDelco:
    Thanks for the link. For those who have read the articles of JP, all this and more is written in their articles.
    It seems important to recognize that the next generation will be Lead-Carbon and gradually will realize that AXION PbC is the better.
    18 Apr 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    "Ecoult, a subsidiary of East Penn, is a leading supplier of energy storage solutions based on advanced lead-acid batteries including the hybrid energy storage device UltraBattery. "

     

    where have we heard that name before?
    18 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Very nice summary, indeed. I just had the opportunity to take a ride with a friend's BMW 5 with S/S. He said it used to turn-off the car more often half a year ago. I could assure him that the batteries will be better in the future.
    Then, a minute ago a BMW dealer called me to tell me that they now offer hybrid cars, because I told him two years ago that I now own a Prius and wouldn't be interested in a BMW unless they offer a hybrid car as well...
    18 Apr 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Noticed they mentioned the Xide-Axion grant in the article. I haven't been around much lately. Did anyone have any luck getting this year's DOE update on the status of Xide's AGM battery lines (lines that in theory were going to be available to product AGM batteries with Axion's PbC electrodes)? The AGM lines were supposed to go into production by the end of this year as last I remember.

     

    Thanks.
    18 Apr 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Labtech - I know that Brishwain posted he was looking into this issue.

     

    Unfortunately, most of the articles on the ALABC website technology page refer to the Exide battery

     

    http://bit.ly/yxXKev
    18 Apr 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    An important new study on lithium-ion battery costs that was commissioned by the UK's Committee on Climate Change has just been published.

     

    http://bit.ly/HT2qLc

     

    It clearly says that "step-change improvements in performance of automotive batteries are highly unlikely to occur as there are no "breakthrough" technologies approaching the consumer market today."

     

    It pegs pack level costs at ±$800 per kWh today falling to ±$320 by 2020, or about a 10% annual decline rate. I think it's a bit optimistic, but it reinforces the notion that changes won't come fast and the PbC should enjoy a big cost advantage for at least another decade.

     

    One of the more interesting tables shows that the typical time lag between Eureka! and product is 10 years or more.
    18 Apr 2012, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    Looks especially trustworthy considering that it is not being produced by the oil industry but rather by a body that is focused on climate change. Thanks, John!
    18 Apr 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    The idea that the oil industry somehow feels threatened by electric vehicles is one of the most fanciful myths of our time. Global oil producers generate over $3 trillion a year in revenue, about twice the revenue of the global auto industry.

     

    Oil executives understand resource constraints and they know full well that humanity does not have enough raw materials to make a dent in hydrocarbon consumption.

     

    Their biggest worry is keeping up with skyrocketing demand, not that green pipe-dreams will somehow hurt their business.
    18 Apr 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    One has to consider the source and their motivations. Presumably a body concerned with climate change is interested in the success of electric vehicles and yet they indicate that "no “breakthrough” technologies are approaching the consumer market today."
    That carries a lot of weight.
    If one scientist who has taken funds from Exxon Mobil says the same thing I might take it with a grain of salt.
    18 Apr 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    This is certainly a group that I would have expected to put as upbeat a spin on the issue as possible. The study was commissioned by the CCC and the work was done by:

     

    Element Energy, a consultancy specializing in low carbon road transport, http://bit.ly/HUnWOp

     

    Axeon, Europe's largest independent designer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery systems, http://www.axeon.com and

     

    Prof. Bruce from Edinburgh and St. Andrews Research School of Chemistry.
    18 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Exxon Mobil, Conoco etc. are not just not oil companies, they are energy companies. Right now the most profitable widely used energy is oil and gas. If they felt that vehicle electrification was going to be profitable or in any way detrimental to their business they would not need to deny it, they could just as easily *lead* in it. Exxon Mobil spends $100M a day to explore for oil and gas, if/when their is a viable competitive form of energy you will know it because Exxon will take a portion of that $100M to develop it.
    18 Apr 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Sort of related, albeit in historical context, what follows is a wonderful conspiracy story about how in 1922 GM decided to kill the electric street car; fantastic, reads like a movie thriller script...GM even hired the mob!

     

    http://bit.ly/HUwy7I

     

    I know of this story because my father was a street car fanatic, and was always proud that his youthful city of Cleveland, Ohio, avoided "losing to GM" the Rapid Transit Authority, and even to this day, some 44,000,000 ride the RTA annually.
    18 Apr 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    I have had this discussion with a number of people as the street car system was killed off in St. Louis, where some of my family lives. The city has tried to introduce mass transit to some extent with the Metrolink, but trying to change generational tendencies that grew out of not having a good mass transit system is difficult.

     

    I think you almost have to build it and let a new generation grow into using it ...
    18 Apr 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    While there are some truths to the article posted by Maya the main reason these guys moved away from it was it was cheaper in capital to put in a bus vs a line. Many of these lines lost a lot of money so cities were trying to figure out a way to get out of it.

     

    The main problem with reintroducing lines today is our cities are built on a car with clear distinctions between homes in the suburbs and businesses. Yard space is key. It will change but it will take a generation to change.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Same old same old. AUTO hitting the bid.
    18 Apr 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone else having trouble with tracking new comments today? I'm not getting linked to new comments here and in other places.
    18 Apr 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2281) | Send Message
     
    Yes ... at least for this article.
    18 Apr 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    I have had to shift several times to alternative browsers to try to get things to work...

     

    The SA gremlins are hard at work it seems.
    18 Apr 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    I've had the problem for a few days, but now getting tracking notices.
    18 Apr 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    The oddest one I'm getting right now is for "338 new comments on your article: Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years."

     

    It was a weird article because SA originally labeled it as a Tom Konrad piece, but I may have that message stuck in my notification box forever.
    18 Apr 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Something is amiss, and I doubt it’s the browser. I just clicked on a notification on Rocks Hindenburg Insta and the article that came up was his Apple article from February.
    18 Apr 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    yes...for a while now...
    19 Apr 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    so... 10 min to see if my 16k AON order at 42 cents is gonna fill. kinda annoying 8k got filled, but such is all or none.
    18 Apr 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Quercus isn't selling more today - no AH trade yet (16:45).

     

    Yesterday's AH of 11K @ $0.424 was exhausted fairly early on and then the market-maker let the market follow it's own path, IMO.

     

    A one penny spread combined with falling volume says the break is about to come.

     

    BW: you're going to get your $0.40 bottom tested quite soon I think. Since the $0.46 high of Friday the 13th, lower highs with the lows trying to hold a broadening bottom. This pattern is the one that breaks down 60% of the time.

     

    None of the oscillators I watch are suggesting otherwise ATM.

     

    On another note, (TSLA) tried to spook me out today - blew right through my first potential pause at $31.65 and headed for my exit point of $31.50. Stopped short at $31.53 and then proceeded to climb back all day long to close up nicely at $32.66 on improving volume in the last hour of the day.

     

    This may signal the end of near-term consolidation and the start of a march up.

     

    We'll see.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    HTL> "BW: you're going to get your $0.40 bottom tested quite soon I think. Since the $0.46 high of Friday the 13th, lower highs with the lows trying to hold a broadening bottom. This pattern is the one that breaks down 60% of the time."

     

    Maybe in to the .41 and change range but I still don't see below .40. Volume has been anemic so there is no appetite to sell below .42 and buying has been just as anemic. While these is a possibility of .40 to .42 range, particularly this Friday late in the day, I don't see the probability of a strong enough sell off to drift below .40. Just MHO. Get a hold of MAP's new ID and and let him know that easy money from me is still available for the taking. Most people appear to be in a "wait and see" mode.
    18 Apr 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Since I'm not a chartist I can't tell for sure but it sure looks like we've had a nice smooth, albeit shallow, cup and handle form since early February. Do either of you guys have any thoughts?
    19 Apr 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Looking over the AXPW price chart of the last two years:

     

    http://yhoo.it/H0CTwi;range=2y;compare=;ind...

     

    reveals two times that the stock went sideways for over a month: 8/18/10 - 9/29/10 (about 1.4 months) and 11/2/10 - 2/3/11 (three months). After both of these sideways periods, the stock rose nicely--approx. 50% the first time, and 100% the second. Only two examples, to be sure, but the longer the base, the bigger the move up.

     

    So far, we are two and a half months into the current sideways move. Combined with the dramatically improved fundamentals and TG's recently revealed expectations both for the short and long-run, this is setting up very nicely for another big move up, IMHO.
    19 Apr 2012, 04:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I've been arguing with myself the last week and a half or so about that. The cup is really well-formed and the handle completed too ... but then just kept extending. I'm thinking that if it was going to give us a gift it should have started to move up after 4/10. It tried to start the move with the high of $0.46 on 4/13 but faltered.

     

    Subsequently it started making lower highs while more or less holding the bottom.

     

    So I finally concluded that the C & H pattern was now broken, although these sorts of conclusions are really iffy.

     

    Considering the (apparent) failure of the C & H, and considering the falling triangle being formed, my best guesses on such a short-term follow-on pattern formation were that we are continuing the consolidation pattern with a *likely* move to the lower half of our range, seen before.

     

    Of course, empirically per Bulkowski, this pattern breaks down only 60% of the time so there's a 40% chance it breaks upward.

     

    But if I add in the bottom-feeder contingent, lack of a catalyst, ... I think the likelihood is a move to the lower range - $0.37-$0.42.

     

    As before, I plan to add if it moves to this range and I suspect it will have a hard time getting to $0.37 because others may be planning adds in here also.

     

    TA oscillators are mixed neutral to bearish ATM, with the exception that on a 1-year daily chart accumulation has been generally rising since 8/17/11 and went positive as of 2/3 and continued to grind up. But it's weakening short-term and is not strong, being currently at ~1.01.

     

    We do have a positive divergence of RSI - higher than when we were last in this range, 2/3-2/10, but falling and currently only at a near-neutral reading of ~53.02 through yesterday.

     

    Adding thoughts about market-makers, which I think you will disagree with ...

     

    While Quercus is selling the market-maker has incentive to hold price at a level that prevents a loss. The market-maker makes money on volume and on either a buy low and sell high or sell high and then buy low strategy. With Quercus apparently not in (no AH trade yesterday), the market-maker must find the price level that generates volume to make money - there's no incentive to hold a certain price range as his book is neutral.

     

    His low-risk method for this is to move price downward if natural market action doesn't provide a price range that brings in volume. This suggests small short sales by the market-maker are the order of the day until volume comes in.

     

    I'm suspecting we see a $0.41 range, possibly starting today.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: I forgot - missing an important piece of the C & H - price trend is upward leading into the pattern. We had that until the share issuance 2/1. Then we dropped big and then the C & H formation began. So we're missing an important piece there.
    19 Apr 2012, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I call that, "wallowing." Nice work!
    19 Apr 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    HTL's TA on here reminds me of Prometheus. We grow our liver back every night just to have it eaten out the next day by reversion to means and oscillators that break down 60% of the time.

     

    (Meant to be the APC's dry self-deprecating humor for all here)
    19 Apr 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of Tesla:
    Electric car company Tesla and solar roof installer SolarCity have quietly been making deals that could one day lead to dozens of sales of battery projects coupled with rooftop solar systems built at both residential and commercial buildings in California.

     

    http://bit.ly/HRhUtx

     

    "IDC Energy Insights analyst Sam Jaffe told me that if SolarCity and Tesla manage to bring these energy storage projects to fruition and gain widespread commercial interest, it could be a breakthrough in terms of using subsidies to get the economics for building energy storage low enough to be attractive to customers. The problem with using batteries for residential and commercial energy storage to date has been that it’s been way too expensive, said Jaffe."

     

    I hope the high-price of lithium ion doesn't discourage the CA market before Axion has a chance to strongly present its alternative.
    18 Apr 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    So Elon Musk is using Solar City to get rebates/incentives from CA's Public Utilities that he can then use to buy his batteries at Tesla which also received over $500M in free money?
    18 Apr 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Nice catch Jakurtz.

     

    The revolving door of government money and bad product. That combination doesn't last forever. My next crowning moment is when the production delays of the "S" are overcome and production can start.

     

    What if there are few orders? Oh Oh.
    18 Apr 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    What if people start asking for deposits back? You know, the money they used to build previous cars?
    18 Apr 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    @D_Lane: Yea, I think I'll wait till the PowerCube comes online for Residential storage. I'm in Phoenix, AZ and I'm hoping TG (or Vani) enter into some type of similar partnership with a "solarcity" or similar company. I've posted elsewhere on a JP article that I'm convinced that affordable solar storage is the key to making Solar at true parity to the Grid (at least in Phoenix, since I swear we are 7 inches from the sun).

     

    Beside, wouldn't want the Lithium to set my house on fire.

     

    OR
    19 Apr 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    All in the family -

     

    "There’s another connection between Tesla and SolarCity, too. Elon Musk is the Chairman of and an investor in SolarCity, and the co-founder and CEO of Tesla. SolarCity co-founder and CEO Lydon Rive, and SolarCity co-founder and COO Peter Rive are Musk’s cousins."

     

    from http://bit.ly/HRhUtx
    19 Apr 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    All the piglets slurping at the same government trough.
    19 Apr 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    I'm very curious about the cost numbers for residential storage of renewables, using PbC and alternatives.

     

    Living in Phoenix, Occam, you are in the sweet spot for solar.
    19 Apr 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Yea.... it's quite easy to harness actually. For example, I went to Home Depot last year and bought 1000 feet of black tubing which (using the filter pump pressure) allows me to use our pool 9 months out of the year. Last summer I had to turn it (the tubing) off to prevent our pool from becoming a Jacuzzi.
    19 Apr 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater (distributor for Axion) is testing a residential grid-tie storage unit now. I do not how long it wil be in testing until it is released to the market.
    19 Apr 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rick,

     

    JP mentioned a Lux research paper citing Phoenix being one of the top Residential Solar Storage markets by 2017. My unscientific wild a__ guess tells me something could be on the market within 24 months (at least that is my wishful thinking).

     

    On a related note, I began tuning off the Power strips operating a host of accessories in my office... it was an easy (habit type) transition that I should've made a long time ago...

     

    I looked into "water" airconditioning, since I'm on a well (not city water) and thought it could possibly be (somewhat) cost effective. Still too early, IMHO.

     

    Forgive the steam of consciousness, but I noticed a Carpooling Carport was recently built in South Phoenix with solar panels on the roof of some of the "public" spaces. Next thing you know we get some Natty stations and heck, well be leading the charge (no pun intended).
    19 Apr 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    "... Solar at true parity to the grid."

     

    We might see such a development in niche markets, but I'm increasingly thinking it will be a long, long time before solar generated electricity is cost competitive with traditional power sources in this country unless EPA/government mandates and/or taxes drive cost of fossil fuel use higher.

     

    "The 'science'" is far from settled (http://tinyurl.com/87v...) and dissenting voices are increasingly rebutting the anthropogenic global warming mantra that "CO2 is the root of all evil". Tremendous growth in grid power storage demand is at best speculative extrapolation of trends dependent on recent governmental energy policy initiatives. Government policies promoting renewable energy production may continue at present scale -- and they may not.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    The last conference call said that RoseWater would be showing off the new residential PowerCube at the Indiana Home Show ( Indianapolis)in September( if I heard it correctly).
    20 Apr 2012, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    D -

     

    I definitely see some strong opportunities for grid-tie storage, independent of AGW/CO2 and government mandates.

     

    There are multiple constraints against significantly improving the grid: NIMBYS and BANANAS, self-serving pseudo-environmentalists, special interests, anti-power line groups, status quo state-level PUCs, self-important country planning commissions, etc. Costs allocations of providing electricity are highly regulated, illogical and cross subsidized, which amplify the peak-to-base load problems and prevent markets from supplying solutions. Examples are landlords who provide cheap, energy-ineffective/was... appliances since the tenant pays for energy, unitary pricing so peak=off-peak in most markets, stupid zoning that often prevents effective solar capture (for hot water/heat) or shading/cooling in hot areas, etc.

     

    Regulated utilities are required to provide power, even when uneconomic, and often are constrained from building additional transmission and generators. Energy storage (ES) can alleviate some of the shortages. Consumers (residential and commercial) who need quality power are going to want backup power, and ES can dramatically improve the situation. On a continuous basis, ES can stabilize voltage and frequency and correct voltage sag (brownouts). During power interruptions, depending on capacity, critical (or all) systems can be maintained for a while. Short term generators can fill in for longer outages.

     

    An ES system dramatically reduces generator needs. For example, a non-airconditioned house can run on less than 2kw. However, responsibly sizing a gasoline generator would be, at minimum, a 5kw, and 10kw preferred, running continuously. With a good ES, a 2.5kw generator would suffice, and probably can turned off at late night. Depending on house occupancy, a generator may not be necessary for much of the day, too.

     

    Alternately, consumers who do not want to fuss with an ICE backup, PV can be a (nearly) economic choice when coupled with ES. The tradeoffs include length of outage protection, reliability factor (a week of clouds/rain), cost of generator maintenance, and noise issues. Of course, some locations, like Seattle, probably are never suitable for significant PV.

     

    Having ES can increase the robustness of the entire grid, permitting load shedding, and keeping more people out emergency shelters when the power is out. Unfortunately, our present subsidy scheme allows/encourages PV systems that increase instability and totally shut down in a outage, so the consumer cannot even run his own refrigerator during daylight hours.

     

    Is solar PV likely to be truly cost effective against coal and hydro? Highly unlikely until really cheap, massive grid storage is developed. There are few ideas on the distant horizon (decades away). The only technically practical, short-term solution is pumped hydro. but most good sites are taken or unavailable, and the rest are blocked by NIMBYs et. al.

     

    [I use ES because there are several ways to store energy, not just batteries. Locations with wells can pump water to a higher level storage tank. Cooling needs can be met with ice storage. Hot water can be stored in large, extra-insulated tanks. There are always more experimental ideas, such as compressed air (for electricity and cooling), lifting weights (for elevator service), etc.]
    20 Apr 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    During the summer, do you run it at night to cool the water?
    20 Apr 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Rick K ... Thanks for sharing that perspective. I too anticipate substantial growth in grid-tie storage of electric power in part due to some of the same influences you mention. I just don't have a lot of confidence in energy storage market magnitudes projected in some recent studies.

     

    On PV energy, I do not see grid-parity likely on a wide scale across this country because of both cost of energy storage and cost of energy conversion(s) needed for switching between AC and DC power supplies plus siting/positioning constraints on size and placement of solar panel and costs of installation. Sizing and placement of ICE power backup systems are not as constrained and power conversion costs can be avoided or greatly reduced.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    In rural areas there are very few restrictions on ICE generators. However, well over half of the US lives in urban areas, which often have significant ICE generation restrictions. The cheapest consumer gasoline generators are extremely noisy, and certainly will generate a lot of noise complaints, pollution, and regulations (pun intended). Most large diesel sets in urban areas, used for hospitals, etc., have very significant restrictions due to heavy diesel exhaust. California and NYC very strongly discourage generator usage except in total blackout.

     

    High efficiency PV (NOT the cheap thin-film) may be a valuable resource if combined with ES when ICE usage is restricted. A challenge with PV (one of many) is that urban and suburban areas have very limited collection areas, typically the roof. Obviously an 18% efficient panel will produce twice the energy of a 9% panel in the same given area. Generally, the roof area of a building cannot produce the energy needed to run typical (inefficient) systems even with very high efficiency panels; "saving money" with cheap thin film panels just makes the total power generation so small to be essentially irrelevant.

     

    Conversely, in a non-space-limited rural environment, panels with low efficiency per meter may still be less expensive and more effective than more efficient panels.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Hey Rick, curious what your thoughts are on alternative PV mounting methods such as solar trees?

     

    http://bit.ly/JwySNY
    21 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Tim, it's silly. The article is about a semi-clueless 13 y.o. who didn't even read the specifications that came with his solar panels, reported by a totally clueless blogger/ignoramus. As the note mentions, the original blog and note were removed because of their gross ignorance. Apparently he measured voltage and thought that was watt-hours. The specs on his solar panels would have told him that voltage increases in colder weather. Lo and behold, in December he got a bigger number than October. Off the top of my head, voltage about doubles from 0F to 100F; I'm too lazy to look it up now.

     

    "Suck on that, adult scientists!" This is beyond commenting.
    21 Apr 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Yea, I couldn't find the article that I want and should have just left the link off or spent more time looking for the article that sparked my interest. I apologize for the misfire. I did find that article and the link is below.

     

    I am interested in your thoughts of how solar trees as described in the article below could change residential solar. The arrangement of the panels vertically to take in more ambient light in overcast days as well as extending the hours of collection. Is changing the form factor/share of our PV collectors the next step in the evolution of residential PV or is it just wishful thinking?

     

    http://yhoo.it/trgjlY

     

    Again, sorry for the misfire. My time is limited so I get in a hurry sometimes...
    21 Apr 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    The video doesn't work for me, but I think I understand the point of the article.

     

    As an optical physicist (who has never worked on photovoltaics beyond little photodiodes mind you) I don't see any possibility that a 3D shape would in any way improve efficiency and cost per watt of solar cells

     

    You're basically dealing with intensity, absorption and surface area problems. The sun puts out a (nearly) fixed intensity and a flat panel pointed toward the sun will collect as much power as possible.

     

    Now if you cover 5 sides of a box in solar panels and point one toward the sun, you'll get the same power out when the sun is shining. Yes, you WILL get 5x the power on cloudy days, but that comes at an increased cost as you have to use a different inverter for each side to avoid the total power being pulled down by the weakest side.

     

    Essentially they designed a 5+ times more expensive "solar panel" that works slightly better than "not at all" on cloudy days.

     

    If cloudy day performance is vital, then sure, it might have a market. However, until flat solar panels reach cost-parity with the rest of the grid on SUNNY days, there's little point in considering what we can do on inefficient cloudy days except as fun academics.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Might be some solutions herein.

     

    http://bit.ly/I59rsy

     

    And on another tack for CSP cells, maybe little computer-controlled micro-mirros? ;-))

     

    http://bit.ly/ILXaV7

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Dreamiter, all good points. Giving the benefit of doubt in an effort to discover what I/we may have missed, I have written directly to the team for a deeper understanding. I will report back if anyone has an interest. I think a functional and economical solar tower/tree might be of interest when it gets connected to a mini-Cube?

     

    MIT's official press release...

     

    http://bit.ly/I5o9P6

     

    23 Apr 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Tim, it's hard for me to believe that the increase in efficiency gained from using tracking collectors would make up for the huge cost of the mechanics of the "solar tree". Only if the land under the tree is highly valuable for some use (urban parking?) could this make sense. And then only if power is expensive on site. I haven't run the numbers, so this is: IMHO

     

    It does sound like a very good way to absorb DOE grants made by clueless bureaucrats.
    24 Apr 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    It does appear they are hanging their hat on the "higher output for real estate used" but it's not a tracking system. They are using computer models to calculate an optimum fixed configuration.

     

    When I installed our panels, I concluded there was an optimum position for a fixed installation and pointed them all in the same direction. Great for southern climates but what about northern climates?

     

    I have sent off an email and will see if they have time to answer the question I posed to them...
    25 Apr 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Fun stuff HTL, how did I miss your post? how many other posts have I missed? arg!
    25 Apr 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Flooded sales were running at a $10 million annual rate in Q4 after consistent quarter to quarter growth of ±40% during the year. Continuing the ramp in 2012 at a 33% rate gets you to $22 million on the flooded contract alone. Likewise starting the PbC at $750,000 per quarter and ramping that by 50% a quarter by quarter basis puts another $6.1 million on the books. Toss in a little service revenue and $32 to $36 million in 2012 is very doable.

     

    Only people who have no experience with Tom Granville would refer to him as "ever upbeat." I'd love to have him add some color about who he thinks the buyers will be, but that would require him to violate NDAs with customers, which is never a good idea. We know that railroads, automakers and other battery users have been testing the PbC for something approaching three years and they've gotten very good results. It's about time for all that testing to turn into the early stages of buying. I doesn't take much demand for million dollar systems to ramp revenues rapidly.

     

    Tom is an old school labor contract negotiator and he plays his cards very close. In eight years I've never seen him predict anything that wasn't already in the bag. I'm very interested in seeing how the year unfolds, but I have no doubt that the performance will be there barring a catastrophic meltdown in the economy.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    LOL... hmmmm.... why only 16 comments? I think you've been around awhile, no?
    If you are legit, i'll be the first to apologize.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Occam,
    "Me thinks he dost protest to much"

     

    So far. I'm with you on this guy. Same type entry as the last. Innocent new investor. No way to study all the articles. Can't I ask a simple question based on a negative assumption?

     

    Could be wrong. I will be second in line
    19 Apr 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Occam and Futurist:
    I'll bet you both actually think that OJ was guilty too!
    19 Apr 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    Have to admit that I am guilty as charged. OJ and me didn't exactly see the story the same way.

     

    I hope I am wrong about Jack. But he certainly did not respond to our efforts to have him do a little study first.
    I certainly hope our forum is open to anyone wishing to have a full discussion of Axion, its plans, and its future, whether good or bad. But a discussion means you bring your experience ,research, and ideas to the table. It does not allow one to simply nitpick questions in order to stir the pot.

     

    I keep coming back to the analogy made long ago. This forum is like an adult discussion of an important topic, occurring during a family reunion in someones living room. Those that are to
    young ( children) or just don't care ( imbecile nephew) are not allowed in. Those that wish to listen and learn are invited to do so. But speak when you have something to add. Ask informed questions about things not yet discussed.
    Humor is allowed and welcomed. Off topic is allowed and welcome. But Grandpa or other Elder will bring it back on point if the topic strays to far.

     

    At least this is how I view it.
    However were doing it, it appears to be working.
    19 Apr 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Guilty. The pattern is very consistent and predictable.

     

    Obsequious at first, claims of strident support and enthusiasm and then repeated attempts to undermine management and investors without any merit.

     

    It's always issues that anyone who had done even cursatory review would be able to dismiss.

     

    Next there will be claims of contact from many other newbies who are too intimidated to ask the questions themselves but admire the troll for his courage.

     

    So transparent.

     

    D
    19 Apr 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    "Revenge of the Electric Car" will be airing tonight on your local PBS station at 10:00. Here's a trailer:

     

    http://to.pbs.org/J9dG1p
    19 Apr 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    First, I know nothing of this documentary and I'm setting up a 3 day art festival tonight, so I'll not be seeing it...

     

    But the title has visions in my imagination of zombies stumbling around the old Dearborn Ford factory, for some reason.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Trip: If I choose to watch it, I'll report back in, with great and invalid attempts to leave my cynicism aside.

     

    Best of luck with the festival!
    19 Apr 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    There's a reason my most popular title ever was "It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The current stats are 39.878 Page Views and 768 comments.

     

    It beats the runner-up by 20,000 views.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    I have a feeling watching it will be about as bad as watching the POTUS claim he is for an "all of the above" approach to energy. It will make me cringe and whither having to witness such flagrant untruths.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Most of the PBS stuff can be watched later by going to the site.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    A two hour Tesla commercial. Quelle genius?
    19 Apr 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Granville thought of it first, it is only that Harvey Weinstein was not quite as taken by the title... "Revenge of the Lead-acid battery". It doesn't quite have the same...je ne sais pas.
    19 Apr 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    A few tidbits of lead and carbon batteries:

     

    The Advanced Lead Acid consortium http://bit.ly/yxXKev

     

    Use of PbC other than s/s in vehicles:
    http://bit.ly/J4IkgX

     

    Axion is a member of LC, as is about 65 other companies: http://bit.ly/HKvwb0

     

    A vehicle http://bit.ly/Jfy3O9
    Does not seem to be using Axion's batteries. Hmmm?
    19 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Above, I was referring to these articles on the ALABC website ... I find it interesting that the last article you refer to has the following appears to have been created in February 2012 and refers to "lead-acid batteries at 12V (and later at 48V)" but not really lead-carbon.

     

    Then the second document which appears to be created in March has the following language -

     

    "The improved lead-carbon battery design employed in the LC Super Hybrid allows for an excellent charge and discharge characteristic, while the carbon-enhanced negative plate formulations dramatically improve life under hybrid vehicle duty cycles. Further battery life improvements have been achieved by careful attention to battery management. These next generation batteries are already under test in pre-production vehicles."

     

    I am curious as to what they mean by "these" next generation batteries ...

     

    It bothers me though that on a couple of the other articles they are referring specifically to Exide's enhanced carbon battery.

     

    If I am not mistaken, JP addressed the fact that Axion not involved by stating they chose to pass on this as they focused on their other projects.
    19 Apr 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure he just found it and wanted to post it, but we have discussed it and it is Exide's Carbon Paste battery...i forget what they call it.

     

    JP did say that it was too small a deal now for AXPW to devote time & funds to with all the other irons in the fire.
    19 Apr 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to LT and Stefan, I had just run across those articles and thought they were interesting. I must have missed the discussion on this forum.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Shoot Rick, don't worry about that. Better to have dupes than to miss something.

     

    And you're not the first, I assure you.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    No apologies necessary, I wasn't trying to be sharp. I commented because I am interested in how the wording changes from each announcement. In the February release they talked about lead-acid, then lead carbon, then lead carbon with Exide.

     

    And in April they released the Has Lead Carbon Been Overlooked article which discusses both Exide and Axion.

     

    I am not sure that this means anything in particular. I just found it interesting to note and was hoping someone had something intelligent to add to my ramblings ...
    19 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    The important thing to remember about the ALABC is they represent the entire industry and everybody's lead-carbon is a big advance over their conventional lead-acid. So from the perspective of an industry association, everything's coming up roses. I believe the ALABC thinks the PbC is the best of the best, but that doesn't make the improvements from carbon pastes less impressive compared to prior art.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Another study out confirming that pure EVs create more or just as much pollutants than does the ICE (with the exception of California). This one is from Ohio State (John, I think you'll enjoy digesting the tables):

     

    "The estimates provided by the study are given in table 1. Assuming that 49% of an electric vehicle's charging energy being derived from coal, the study found that electric vehicles would cause comparable levels of nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide to be emitted, and that sulfur oxide emissions would increase by a factor of 10 [1]. Furthermore, when assuming that an electric vehicle is charged with 100% coal-fired electricity, the study estimated that the electric vehicles would emit 150% more carbon dioxide, 250% more nitrogen oxides, and 2400% more sulfur oxides than a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle [1]."

     

    Full study here (The link would not link!):

     

    Will Electric Vehicles Really Reduce Pollution?
    [Note to reader: topic sentences are in green; remaining weakness in red.]
    ABSTRACT
    The amount of pollution created by electric vehicles depends mostly on the source of the electricity used to charge them. This makes it impossible to determine if electric vehicles pollute less than internal combustion engine vehicles without considering where they are to be deployed and by what sources of electricity they are to be powered. An electric vehicle that is charged with energy from a clean source, like hydroelectric power, will produce very little pollution, while one charged with energy from an unclean source, like coal or oil, may produce more pollution than an internal combustion engine vehicle. The sources of energy for most regions fall somewhere between these two extremes. The use of electric vehicles will allow new possibilities in pollution control and management that may outweigh some of their potentia.l failings. While not ready to be used everywhere, electric vehicles have the potential to pollute much less than internal combustion engine vehicles.
    Introduction
    Internal combustion engine vehicles are responsible for the vast majority of pollutants that plague urban areas today. Studies of the sources of air pollution have shown that transportation accounts for the majority of nitrogen oxide (54%) and carbon monoxide (89%) emissions in the United States [1]. Furthermore, internal combustion engines are also believed to be one of the largest single sources of carbon dioxide (28%) emissions [1]. [The next sentence undercuts main point of introduction by bringing up a new topic.] Internal combustion engine vehicles also generate other types of pollution, including sulfur oxides and hydrocarbons, however, the amounts generated by transportation are small compared to other activities.

     

    These emissions are directly responsible for many of the air quality problems faced in major urban areas. For example, carbon monoxide readily bonds with hemoglobin in blood, taking the place that would normally be occupied by oxygen molecules. Exposure to high concentrations of carbon monoxide can cause death, essentially suffocating a person as their cells are deprived of oxygen. Nitrogen oxides are also problematic for urban dwellers because sunlight causes hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides to react and form ozone. Even at low concentrations, ozone damages the body's cells and tissues and causes respiratory ailments. [The next sentence is not about air quality.] Although carbon dioxide is not directly harmful to us since we exhale a large quantity of it every day, it is believed to be a greenhouse gas, that is, it may affect global temperatures.

     

    Pollution from power plants
    Electric vehicles produce little or no pollution directly; most of the pollution associated with their use is created at the power plant that provides their electricity. In the case of localities with high percentages of electricity coming from very clean energy source,s the emissions associated with electric vehicles is negligible. A good example of this scenario is California, which derives only about 20% of its electricity from so-called dirty sources like coal and oil [2]. The primary sources of electricity in California are natural gas-burning power plants and hydroelectric generators; both are clean sources of energy. A study from the Natural Resources Defense Council and Environmental Defense Fund indicates that the replacement of all internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles in the Los Angeles Basin may cause reductions of between 37% and 99% in all categories of transportation related pollutants except for sulfur oxides [3]. A more detailed comparison of the amount of pollutants emitted by electric vehicles and modern, catalyst equipped, internal combustion engine vehicles is given in table 1. The distinction, the the L.A. Basin, is important because there is very little coal-fired [poor word choice] electricity used in Los Angeles. The study also noted that most of the pollutants caused by the electric vehicles came from the small component of electricity generated by coal-fired power plants. These predictions [poor word choice] highlight the potential cleanliness of electric vehicles when charged with a clean power source.
    Estimates of the pollution emitted by electric vehicles relative to modern internal combustion engine vehicles
    A comparison of the pollutants emitted by internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles charged by various energy sources. Notice that carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions are negligible when using electric vehicles, but that the emission of sulfur oxides increases. Also note the increasing emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur oxides that occur when using greater proportions of coal and oil derived electricity. Region Studied LA Basin Germany Ideal Internal Combustion
    Amount of Electricity from Coal or Oil 21% 49% 100% (for comparison)

     

    Carbon Monoxide 0.007 0 0 1
    Carbon Dioxide 0.34 1 2.5 1
    Hydrocarbons 0.01 0 0 1
    Nitrogen Oxides 0.27 1 3.3 1
    Sulfur Oxides 1.72 10 25.0 1

     

    While studies of the pollution-reducing ability of electric vehicles in California are quite favorable, they cannot be applied to the rest of the world as a whole. The truth is that when using electricity generated from dirty sources such as coal and oil, electric vehicles may actually create more of some pollutants than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles. A report by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) cited a German study that estimated the environmental impact of electric vehicles with two distinct energy mixes: one comprised of only 49% coal-fired electricity, and one comprised solely of coal-fired electricity [1]. The estimates provided by the study are given in table 1. Assuming that 49% of an electric vehicle's charging energy being derived from coal, the study found that electric vehicles would cause comparable levels of nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide to be emitted, and that sulfur oxide emissions would increase by a factor of 10 [1]. Furthermore, when assuming that an electric vehicle is charged with 100% coal-fired electricity, the study estimated that the electric vehicles would emit 150% more carbon dioxide, 250% more nitrogen oxides, and 2400% more sulfur oxides than a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle [1].

     

    While these coal-fired electric vehicles will emit more of some pollutants, they still will emit less carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons than a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle. The GAO reported noted that mandatory pollution controls at power plants ensure that electric vehicles will always produce less carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons than internal combustion engine vehicles, regardless of the source of the electricity [1]. The German study offers some insights into how electric vehicles would perform in the United States. Their value of 49% represents the portion of German electricity generation that is based on coal, and is close to that of the United States, which, as a whole, derives 55% of its electricity from coal and oil [4]. We can expect similar results for the United States, namely, that while electric vehicles produce much less carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, they use similar levels of nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide, and increased levels of sulfur oxides.

     

    Not all pollutants related to electric vehicles arise from t he generation of electricity. Any discussion of the environmental impact of electric vehicles must also take into consideration the problems associated with the manufacturing and disposal of their batter packs. The typical electric vehicle contains no less than half a ton of batteries (often of the lead-acid variety) that need to be replaced every 20-25 thousand miles [1]. There have not been any definitive studies on the pollution caused by the manufacture and disposal of these batteries, as no one is sure what the batteries used in production electric vehicles of the next century will be like. Furthermore, since current electric vehicle batter packs have not yet begun to produced on a large scale, say, in the million of units per year, there is little hard data available on their environmental impact. The prevailing opinion is that the batteries will not pose much of an environmental problem because of their large weight and high cost. The rationale is that since electric vehicle battery packs weigh several hundred pounds and cost several thousand dollars, they will most likely be replaced by certified repair centers, that will return them to the manufacturer for recycling. Unlike regular car batteries, it will not be economical to simply throw electric vehicle battery packs away when they can no longer hold a charge. The batteries will most likely be refilled, and the original contents recycled, just as motor oil is today.

     

    Enhanced control of pollution at the source
    While electric vehicles may not always hold an outright advantage in terms of pollution reduction, they allow for more control over the pollution that is generated. Because electric vehicles emit little or no pollution directly, their use would shift the source of emissions from the individual vehicle to the electric power plants, allowing more precise measurements of the amount of pollutants emitted. Using this information, regulators could conceivably rotate the operation cycles of power plants to keep local emissions in line with air quality regulations. Since the electricity used to power electric vehicles could come from all over the region, pollutants could be redistributed away from crowded urban areas where they are potentially more dangerous. One foreseeable problem with this redistribution approach is the greatly increased emission of sulfur oxides that will result when electric vehicles are powered by coal-fired electricity. The abundance of sulfur oxides produced by coal-fired power plants in the Northeast has already manifested itself in the form of acid rain. It is unlikely that the addition of several million power-hungry electric vehicles will alleviate the problem, as more coal-fired power plants would be brought on-line to meet the extra demand (keep in mind that coal is the most cost-effective means of generating electricity in the Northeast and it will remain so for many years to come.) Even with the potential of increased occurrences of acid rain, several Northeastern states are considering the use of electric vehicles to reduce carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions in urban areas.
    The use of electric vehicles would allow even further decreases in auto emissions over time because only about 10,500 power plants will have to be monitored, maintained, and upgraded as opposed to the over 100 million private automobiles. [4] Despite the vast amounts of money spent each year in this country to maintain the emissions systems of gas-powered automobiles, cars generally emit more pollution as they age. Deterioration of the catalytic converter and other critical emissions control components eventually leads to an increase of emissions from older cars. Electric vehicles would not suffer from this problem because electric power plants receive more maintenance at regular intervals than would be afforded to a private automobile. In fact, the U.S. Government already maintains a strict testing schedule for electric power plants, making sure that they comply with emissions standards once a month. Another advantage of this centralized approach is that any new pollution reduction technologies can be universally applied to every electric vehicle by simply upgrading the power plants.

     

    Because so many tradeoffs in local versus global pollution are involved, it is impossible to say with certainty that electric vehicles provide the best short term solution to transportation related pollution. The example of sulfur oxides in the Northeast is but one instance where electric vehicles may prove more harmful to the environment than their internal combustion counterparts. it is likely that some localities may be better served by internal combustion engine vehicles with more stringent pollution controls. Government officials in Germany have concluded that, for the time being, catalyst-equipped internal combustion engine vehicles would reduce pollution more than electric vehicles [1]. They came to this conclusion because most of Germany's overflow electricity generation is coal-based, that is to say, as electricity demand increases, the percentage coming from coal-fired power plants increases. It was their final opinion that "the broad-scale introduction of electric vehicles into the Federal Republic of Germany is justifiable only if the zero emission at the place of use is considered more important than the increased emissions at the power plant." Many regions around the world will face similar decisions regarding the importance of local pollution reduction versus the effect on the global environment.

     

    Conclusion
    At present, for the vast majority of the country, neither electric vehicles or comparable gasoline-powered vehicles holds a solid advantage over the other in cleanliness. This balance will probably not change any time in the near future as the problem with electric vehicles is not inherent to them, but rather to the means by which we generate our electricity. Although electric vehicles offer some compelling advantages over internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of pollution management, the real advantage of electric vehicles lies in the future when more electricity is produced from cleaner sources. For those living in California, or in other regions with a high percentage of energy production coming from clean sources, the future is already here.
    ----------------------...

     

    References
    [1] Electric Vehicles: Likely Consequences of U.S. and Other Nations' programs and Policies. (1994). In Gateway Japan [Online]. Available: http://bit.ly/IRvcFg [20 November 1995].
    [2] California Historical Energy Statistics. (1995). In California Energy Commission [Online]. Available: http://1.usa.gov/J4K9KK [8 July 1996].
    [3] Francis Chapman, Chris Calwell and Diane Fisher. (1994). What's the Charge? Estimating the Emissions Benefits of Electric Vehicles in Southern California. In Calstart Resources [Online]. Available: http://bit.ly/J4KahK [No Date].
    [4] US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 1995. (1996). In US Energy Information Administration [Online], Available: http://1.usa.gov/J4K9KX [15 April 1997]. See table 4.
    19 Apr 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    I think you just won the "Longest Ever APC Post" contest. ;^)

     

    I better bookend the contest with the shortest ever--see my next post.
    19 Apr 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    It's always nice to have confirmation of a point that nobody wants to hear. There are some domestic security advantages, but only if a major chunk of the new car fleet is all electric. Even then, the supply chain for the essential metals is far more tenuous than the supply chain for oil. We have a mess on our hands, but electric drive is a fairy tale, not a solution.
    19 Apr 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Maya, curious why they highlighted Los Angeles with 20% coal production. Los Angeles actually is 39% coal powered, see http://bit.ly/Jo43Op

     

    It is much worse than they stated. :)
    19 Apr 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Rick: I wish I could have somehow gotten the link up. What was not properly translated in the above post was that this is an in-progress paper.

     

    But the data "spewed" is what caught my eye.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Maya, let's see if this links: http://bit.ly/zWXbIg

     

    BTW, this article was posted in 1997, so that would explain the wrong LA coal number. Who knows what else has changed in 15 years.

     

    [I used bit.ly to shrink the url to fit with SA]
    19 Apr 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Excellent, Rick! Thanks. I missed the 1997 date. So we all knew EVs would "outpollute" ICEs way back when, 15 years ago...unbelievable.

     

    Especially as newer data coming out verifies this very dated paper, despite increases in MPH and cafe standards over the years.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    The new plug-in Prius looks very promising if one uses the full electric range frequently! (easy to do when the all-electric range is 11 miles) In that way you get the most bang out of the extra weight and cost.

     

    Don't miss the comments below the article.
    http://onforb.es/HWRJ9h

     

    For me, I'd mostly be plugging into a lump of coal here in Michigan but as you say there are domestic advantages. Who wants to keep sending their money to OPEC and the oil sands?
    19 Apr 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    I could be wrong but I thought the LA area used coal as the backup power source. Therefore an EV that used regular electrons during the day isn't as inefficient as other parts of the country.
    Yes, I laughed as I wrote what I believe to be true.

     

    Please someone tell me I am wrong.
    19 Apr 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I'm not sure I understand your point about efficiency, humorous or not. Maybe I just need another cup of coffee.

     

    "Therefore an EV that used regular electrons during the day isn't as inefficient as other parts of the country." Do you mean charging an EV at peak is "efficient"? Compared to what?

     

    LA city, unlike in most of California, is the electric utility, and gets 39% of its electrons from coal generating stations, which I think are in Utah. Coal generators do not follow demand well, so they probably run near full capacity, with natural gas providing much of the variable supply for peak and regulation. In all cases, all the electrons are regular, although perhaps there are some special narcissistic green electrons in Hollywood.
    20 Apr 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    It is I that probably could use the coffee. I seemed to recall having read that California used coal as a nightime source of energy. The theory postulated was that in California, an EV plugged in during the day was "cleaner", than at night. The proverbial "green electron" theory. The whole thing just makes me laugh. But sometimes I laugh alone.
    20 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    "We have a mess on our hands"

     

    Increasing world demand for natural resources
    Dwindling natural resources
    Increasing world population
    Unstable world governments
    Rising dissatisfaction between social classes
    Unstable economic base in most countries.

     

    To quote Edward E Newman
    "What, me worry?"
    19 Apr 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    We've gotten thru much worse before--world wars, cold wars, mass disease, oppression of women and minorities, great depression, a president resigning, a president being assassinated, terrorism, mass smoking, The Captain and Tennille, the Pontiac Aztek, NS' 999 fiasco.

     

    And more of us than ever are here and the Dow's at 13,000, my friend.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    And yet, and yet... technologies, innovation, scientific knowledge: robotics, material science, nanotech, bioscience, communications, information tech, etc etc continue to gallop forward.... even as human, social, cultural, institutional capital continues to decompose in much of the developed world... Creative destruction on warp factor 10.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4334) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... FYI, It's "Alfred E. Newman".

     

    http://bit.ly/HSFY3L
    19 Apr 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    DRich: FYI, its "Alfred E. Neuman".

     

    1959 song: http://bit.ly/JgpUZT
    19 Apr 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4334) | Send Message
     
    >Trip ... My bad. Chalk it up as a "Senior Moment".
    19 Apr 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Whazzat, DR, I can't hear you... Maybe I need to change the battery in my hearing aid...

     

    LOL. Al was a HUGE influence on me in my younger days, back in the days of printed magazines before the US was a "post-literate tweet nation".
    19 Apr 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4334) | Send Message
     
    >Trip ... What younger days? I still read it. My brother has every issue since 1956 and my kids bought the complete 50 year collection on DVD, which I read some evenings between my complete Monte Python & Yes, Minister episodes.

     

    May I age but NEVER grow up.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Knew i should have googled it. Memory does not serve as well as it did.

     

    But thanks for the correction. Edward just never felt quite right.
    19 Apr 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    I just discovered that SA has NOT been notifying me of any new APC comments all day today (even though I have the tracking box checked.) Anyone else aware of the problem? I noticed comments by folks I follow and that is the only reason I made it over here. I thought all the Axionistas had fallen off of a cliff!
    mj
    19 Apr 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Jon and I have been mentioning these and other problems.

     

    The site is acting a bit "sick", to be sure.
    19 Apr 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    MJ, I'm seeing similar issues, though to my knowledge, only on this APC...
    19 Apr 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    48 -- it is very widespread for me. I sent SA a message. I am not being notified of new comments on several articles and StockTalk comment responses. Actually the orange pop-up box indicates new comments are available -- but when I click there is no corresponding link listed. I will just periodically need to proactively check on them until this gets fixed.
    mj
    19 Apr 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    It is happening everywhere, at least from my point of view. I am also seeing comments that won't post, "Like"s that won't, well like, and error messages of various kinds.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    No trade since 12:56. I think the paint is getting bored watching and is getting ready to "peel" out of here!

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    All the perspective buyers have been busy reading Maya's post.
    19 Apr 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    I think some folks just turned 2 leafs together on their calendars this morning, and think its actually Friday...
    19 Apr 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    JCI reaches milestones in opening a lead acid recycling plant in Florence, SC. Recyling plant expected to open this summer:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/HW2fyk
    19 Apr 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Quercus sold 11K @ $0.427 - AH trade 16:09:32.

     

    So at least early action will hold there or above tomorrow. But 11K might be just a single trade.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    HTL> You seem to be really locked in on a fall back below .40. I don't know if you are wrong, but I also don't believe you are right. Where does my view fit on the "might", "may", "likely" scale? I guess I would write it this way: AXPW "may" fall below .40 cents "might" even fall as far as .37 cents, but I doubt it is "likely" to do that.

     

    BW
    19 Apr 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I think it is fair that we each have our own POV, but It doesn't feel quite right to me to depict HTL as "really locked in" to ANY share price. He is providing his best assessment of what technical analysis (TA) is suggesting to him may be the course of the share price short-term. I for one use TA as only ONE of many variables to analyze potential share price. I may anticipate other fundamental variables to outweigh the TA outlook -- if it is not aligned with my overall expectations, but I appreciate having HTL's TA perspective to supplement my own thinking.

     

    mj
    19 Apr 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    I could have really used a better term. I appreciate HTL's analyses also and when he once suggested he not provide them I was one of the many of us who called for him to please continue. I don't doubt for a moment the HTL calls them like he sees them and has no other agenda.

     

    He is perfectly correct that the indicators are pointing to further price weaking and as I said perhaps yesterday we might see the .41's and change which happened on the open today. However the indicators point, the price is not responding correspondingly.

     

    Frankly, I was just disagreeing with HTL because I do disagree and partly as a means to pass the time while I wait for my mother to hit the call button for the 10th time today. I'll chose my words more carefully in the future as I have the greatest respect for HTL and consider him a true friend. You yourself are a class act also so I must have really put my foot in my mouth to offend you! It was meant to be good-natured disagreement, not offensive. Thanks for correcting me. Lesson learned.
    19 Apr 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    I could be wrong about the nature of the after-hours trades, but it makes more sense to me that the market maker is bringing his position back to neutral after hours, as opposed to buying new inventory after hours at a premium to the closing price.
    20 Apr 2012, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1822) | Send Message
     
    Bang, believe me when I say you in NO way offended me. I just felt that a reader who does not know you or HTL after reading your words may have assumed that HTL had a hidden agenda, and as you indicate -- that would be a very wrong conclusion.

     

    Trust me -- you, too will get a chance to refine my message at some point along the way, and I hope I am as gracious as you in accepting the suggestion.

     

    I have only the greatest of respect for you professionally and personally.

     

    mj
    20 Apr 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    But John, you were the one that pointed out the AH trades seemed related to Quercus trades. And it proved out in several instances now.

     

    I know when facts change folks should change their mind. Has some fact changed?

     

    The time is right, the size is right, the price is right (I *think* <<--) based on some new stuff I've been tracking, and recently Quercus was apparently out only one day so far.

     

    If Quercus wants to sell 10%, an AH trade of that size is perfecto!

     

    And if market-maker is "neutralizing" (he-he) his portfolio, who's he buying from or selling to at that higher price?

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Here's some stuff from yesterday. Note that I failed to take a snapshot before ADVFN wiped out the buy and sell assignments, so what we see here is per my best memory (only 21 trades, so should be fairly close).

     

    Using the average trade price, the AH trade doesn't seem out of line at all if we assume the market-maker was involved in all or most of them.

     

    Sorry for the format - SA doesn't have a good way to get spreadsheet stuff in comments with decent formatting and spacing.

     

    4/19/2012
    Min. Pr: 0.4160, # Buys, Shares: 12 61300, Total Buying $: 87,763.10
    Max Pr: 0.4445, ....VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.4317, ...VW Avg B $: 2205.26

     

    # Trds: 21, # Sells, Shares: 9, 53450, Total Selling $: 22,591.09

     

    MinTrSz: 1000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.4227, VW Avg S $: 2,510.12
    MaxTrSz: 17940, # Unkn, Shares: 0, 0, Tot Unknown $: 0.00
    ......................... Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000, VW Avg U $: 0.00

     

    AvTrSz: 5464, Avg. Trade Pr: 0.4273, Avg. Trade $: 2335.91

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    I think you're right about the after hours being Quercus trades, but I believe the market maker is going short during the day on behalf of Quercus' broker and then doing the equalizing trade after hours to get back to neutral. I've noticed that the after hours is typically a couple tenths shy of the prevailing price for the day so if a market maker sold 11,000 during the day at $.43 and then bought 11,000 from Q after hours at $.427, he could go home neutral with $33 in his pocket and no risk that something might hurt him tomorrow.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    That makes sense to me - from what I've been able to discover, the predominate MM moves are sell high and then buy low.

     

    The question then becomes what the MM follow-on is if Quercus (or others too) are looking to sell or not.

     

    UI had been thinking that the Quercus shares were in-hand the next day and looked to see price sustained >= that AH trade until I saw volume that covered the AH trade at >= that price. It seems to have worked that way often.

     

    If that's the case today, we've got another 250 shares to go at >=$0.427 and then ... price does what? My feeling has been that it finds a level less-influenced by the MM, other than to stimulate volume - likely by lowering price with short sales.

     

    I'll be more alert today to see what it does, although a single instance of behavior is certainly not something to rely on regardless of which way it goes.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Since so many people who trade OTCBB stocks use price limited orders, the market maker usually has a very good idea what volume of shares will be available at a particular price level. So they usually set their "ask" a couple tenths above the highest fixed price sell order they see on their screens and drop their open offer several tenths below that.

     

    Right now OTCBB is showing a .42 to .43 spread. It's almost certain that at least one market maker has offers sitting in front of him to sell a volume of shares at about .427. As long as the .427 offer is the only thing on his screen, the ask will stay at .43.

     

    If HTL comes in and hits the bid with say 5,000 shares, the MM will buy the shares, drop his ask to .425 to get them sold as quickly as possible, and then move his ask back up to .43 when he goes back to work on the .427 offer.

     

    It's easy money if you know you have a reliable seller like Quercus that won't get antsy late in the day and change its mind.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Looking at (in)action today, the first 7 trades totaling 11,250 shares went at an average price of ~$0.4295. Through that volume, with bid/ask $0.4202/$0.43, 1x500 share trade was at $0.4202, 1x500 share trade at $0.43.

     

    All the rest of the ~11K traded at $0.4299 while the bid at the time was $0.4203. A total of 5,250 shares (3 trades) traded while the ask was at $ $0.4299, and 5K shares total (2 trades) traded with the ask at $0.43.

     

    Subsequently with bid/ask at $0.4202/$0.4299, 6K traded @ $0.4299. Then ask moved to $0.43 and the two subsequent trades, 3.8K total, hit the bid, going off at $0.4203.

     

    So far, two more trades, 1.4K, have also hit the bid of $0.4203.

     

    Integrating what you suggested this morning and what I was thinking, it seems the early trading does maintain, in aggregate, a price >= to the prior AH trade until at least the size of the AH trade is covered at an average price at least equal to the AH trade.

     

    After that it looks like the market-maker (and others?) *may* be hitting the bid and I would guess this is (mostly?) MM short sales and we'd see another AH trade <= the average of what we might guess is the MM short sales, which we might be able to confirm with the FINRA data tonight.

     

    Again, only a single observation, but the little clues may pile up over time enough to allow a good view of what's happening during such extremely low-volume periods when Quercus is on the field.

     

    I hope this is at least interesting to someone else.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    A market maker can never hit a bid because that's the price he's offering to buy shares for. The only people who can hit bids are stockholders that want to sell shares.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    I'll disagree with that.

     

    If I enter a buy order above the current bid, it immediately shows (assuming it's large enough) on level 2 and "Time & Sales" as best bid at the price I entered. So we know that it's not necessarily only the market-makers' bids that we see.

     

    Moreover, the only ways to sell high and then buy low is to sell to someone that is making a bid, either displayed as the NBBO best bid or something that comes in above and the MM catches it before we can see it, or someone meeting the ask from the market-maker.

     

    In either case the market-maker has to have confidence that he can then cover those short sales at a lower price. Since he can either see orders (that we can't) that will make that possible or can move the market such that he can cover lower, I believe the predominate MM action is short-sales that hit the bid or just above as new bids come in.

     

    This is supported by watching other higher-volume stocks all day long that hit the bid all day long with small orders that eventually move the price down followed by a big volume "buy" that clears everything in sight in a minute or two.

     

    Price often then recovers to (near) the prior level. During these periods that I think are covering buys, 5%, 6%, ... 10% of total daily volume may clear in a minute or two.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Edit - we shouldn't discount the possibility of inter market-maker trades either. MM A could sell to MM B. They have separate order books with (likely) some disparity in the prices contained.
    20 Apr 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2281) | Send Message
     
    Note that the MM has info I don't on my Level II presentation ... for example those bidding above the best bid (or offering below the best offer), but not enough shares (5000 at current prices) to "show."

     

    If I know the market maker for my brokerage is the current best bid, then I can bid some amount slightly above, but for less than 5000 shares, and see what happens. There could be multiple people doing this at slightly different prices, and they could sum to more than 5000 shares at higher than the best bid, but I don't think (but I could be wrong!) that market maker has to show a higher best bid unless for a particular price the sum of all bidders though that particular market maker at that EXACT price exceeds 5000 shares.

     

    I've had this situation where I bid higher, but actually got filled at the "best official bid" price. That was a unexpected surprise.
    20 Apr 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    OT Preview story header from Batteries International Magazine:

     

    "The Borgias’ reputation as the most blood-thirsty family in Renaissance Italy — their in-house specialty exotic poisons — may have a modern counterpart. John Petersen explains the thinking."
    20 Apr 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Wow, now that is a show stopping lead in.
    20 Apr 2012, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Look for it Sunday morning.
    20 Apr 2012, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    "Showtime" cable certainly tries to make the "Borgias" family out to be the most corrupt family to ever touch the Papacy. I am certain that we can expect a little more truth about batteries than historical accuracies about the "Borgias". But no matter what the truth is about this family they were very bad.

     

    Check out this statement from an historian, trying to find something nice to say about Pope Alexander VI( a Borgia)

     

    "Alexander VI Borgia might have entered history as a great Pope except for the fact that he continued as Pope the manner of life that had disgraced him as a Cardinal. Although Steffano Infessura's exuberant accusations are easily dismissed, the diary of Alexander's own Court Chamberlain, Johann Burchard, is generally regarded as accurate. Later editors, even some openly hostile to Burchard, accept most of his descriptions of Papal excesses and escapades, orgies and wild parties. Alexander still liked women, and openly courted them as Pope. Rumors of several more illegitimate children circulated and one new son was certainly born in 1497 or 1498. Most of the paternity stories, however, were never substantiated in his own time or even during the reigns of hostile successors.

     

    Serious historians do not believe the most extravagant accusations against Alexander VI -- that he poisoned his enemies and had an incestuous relationship with his Daughter, Lucrezia. (Popular writers, however, from Victor Hugo to William Mancester have spiced their tales with scurrilous reports from partisan accusers and with apparently sourceless accusations of their own, as did the team of Gaetano Donizetti and Felice Romani in their Opera about Lucrezia.)

     

    Here is the entire family history. I am anxiously awaiting Sunday.
    http://bit.ly/IsLWFS
    20 Apr 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    It's an interesting analogy, that as proprietary chemistries were critical to the success of the Borgia dynasty so will they be critical to the future of battery makers.

     

    I'm also looking forward to some good weekend reading.

     

    D
    20 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Or perhaps the lesson is that, like those who associated with the Borgias, modern day battery consumers need to be careful as to what goes into their mixture - that which they hope will save and support their business may end up killing it (and their customers).

     

    D
    20 Apr 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Renaissance Italy was a fascinating time in history because the Church wielded power at a level that's almost unimaginable. Being a king was all well and good in your own realm, but you were nothing against the power of the Vatican which was in many respects little more than Imperial Rome re-wrapped in religious garb. Even today the Church wields an immense amount of de facto power on the world scene even if it has no official power.

     

    Thanks to the Showtime series and another from France's Canal Plus, I finally got a chance to use an arcane historical reference that most will understand. With my luck, SA will change the title to "punch it up a bit."
    20 Apr 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    So, amidst a time of absolute concentrated power, egos, debauchery, murder and shame you write a modern non-fiction piece surrounding the battery world.

     

    Yikes, this could make Maya's novel dull and uninspiring.

     

    I look forward to Sunday with much glee.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Way OT:

     

    Until today I had never asked " What is an Axion?
    I find it is a theoretical particle of matter.

     

    "Axions are peculiar hypothetical particles that could both solve the CP problem of quantum chromodynamics and at the same time account for the dark matter of the universe. "

     

    I was just curious as to which board members ( or their counsel) came up with this wonderful theoretical name for a company trying to build a new fangled power source.
    20 Apr 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    I always assumed it was a KT thing, but I've Skyped your question to him and perhaps he'll fill us in on that bit of back-trivia.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • KirkTierney
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Nice spotting.

     

    I thought that naming the company after the mysterious "dark matter" particles of quantum physics fitted well with the nearly-invisible particles of carbon nanopore that were always killing every computer we installed in the carbon lab.

     

    Indeed, our first web pages featured a top banner of a translucent photo-micrograph of the tiny black nanopore bits we'd found. Not that anyone else understood at the time, although some of the scientists thought it was good "dark" humour.

     

    kt
    20 Apr 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    There is another kind of Axion. In Physiology, there are three basic parts of a neuron: the dendrites, the cell body and the axon. In order for neurons to communicate, they transmit a signal from one neuron to the next. This process uses both electrical signals (action potential) and chemical messengers. The Axion transmits the neural signal between the cell body (neuron) and its' dendrites. So in effect, Axion's are equivalent to biological conductors acting as a part of an electrical / chemical system...
    20 Apr 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (1986) | Send Message
     
    Prior to the advent of microscopy, *axon*, and its variant "axion," meant the central neural axis of the body, or the brain and spinal cord. When neuroanatomists began studying brain cells with microscopes in the 19th century, "axon" was then also applied to the central cord extending out of neurons (as described by FPA above), which is its primary meaning today.

     

    "Axion" is not used in modern medical parlance, and is not even listed in my Dorland's Medical Dictionary. But its archaic meaning remains what today we refer to as the Central Nervous System:

     

    http://bit.ly/HSM27A
    20 Apr 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    A better more full description of the Axion particle.
    http://bit.ly/JdbIzn

     

    Axion is also a genus of beetle of the ladybird family: in biology terms

     

    I find that indeed Axons exist in biology: Axons are in effect the primary transmission lines of the nervous system, and as bundles they help make up nerves.

     

    I'm sure that some , like my wife, will believe that Axion Power is nothing more than an :
    unproven theory that is associated with a new broken symmetry of nature.

     

    Me, on the other hand, find much consolation in the fact that the Axion particle is much about "string theory".

     

    The self equalization of power in a "string" of PbC batteries is not just a theory. It is an Omen.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • AAxion
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Hi,

     

    Just on a different topic, do you know of any companies that have successfully transited from OTC to the mainboard without a stock split?

     

    Also, I was looking at some peer battery companies for a sense of valuation:
    A123: Revenues: $160mil, Mcap: $130mil, P/S: 1.2
    Valence: Revenues: $8.5mil, Mcap: $145mil, P/S: 17
    Exide: Revenues: $2.9bil, Mcap: $220mil, P/S: 0.08
    Maxwell: Revenues: $160mil, Mcap: $470mil, P/S: 2.9x
    Ultralife: Revenues: $140mil, Mcap: $90mil, P/S: 0.6x

     

    So the P/S multiple except for a few is less than 1x. If we use Maxwell's multiple of say 3x, and assume that Axion grows 300% in 2012 and 300% in 2013, so by 2013/2014, it will have revenues of $72mil. With P/S of 3, it will have a Mcap of $216mil.

     

    Which is a share price of $1.9 in 2 years time, which is still not sufficient for a mainboard listing.

     

    Just like to get your views on this.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Your math is a little off. 300% revenue growth in 2012 will take sales to $32 million and a 300% revenue growth expectation for 2013 would take sales to $128 million. Using your suggested P/S ratio of 3, that would take us to $3.40.

     

    While the Nasdaq requires a $4 bid, the Amex only requires $2.

     

    Price to sales ratios have little bearing on companies like Axion that are just beginning the transition from revenue free R&D to rapidly ramping product sales. Ultimately value is based on anticipated market size and expected market share. With several multi-billion dollar target niches, I wouldn't care to speculate what Axion's market cap might be if one or two of its first tier testing relationships mature into customer relationships.

     

    Somebody asked Tom Granville about the possibility of a reverse split in the year end conference call. His response was just little shy of "Reverse Split!? We don't need no stinking reverse split!"

     

    In my experience, companies that do reverse splits to obtain a market upgrade usually hold their value. The problems are companies that do reverse splits to keep a market listing, because they usually lose their value.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Fair question if stock board membership is your goal.

     

    But I will have to think about the metrics.
    Do you measure A123 now or when it was at the same stage as AXPW?
    Is ACPW a better measuring stick?
    What are the measuring sticks of a developmental company with growth of a minimum of 300% per year? Especially when that growth is predominately old fashion lead acid battery production.

     

    I think the baseline stock price is based on whatever revenue is generated by 1 million PbCs made in house. Once PbCs are accepted at that rate then market acceptance of the product will drive growth of the negative electrodes.

     

    I'm not sure what the base price is but I think $2 per share is cheap.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    There was a poster, I think thotdoc, that recently made the post about a company he has been watching that did a reverse split for the better listing and the stock price got hammered. Well below what is was before the split.

     

    I hate the idea of being on the otc and I also hate the volume of a 20k share day, but things are what they are at this point. I believe it displays managements confidence to not go with the reverse split, they don't want to be on the otc just as much or more than me.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Of all the goals I had when I got involved with Axion, a national exchange listing is the only one that's eluded me. The board could have gotten an exchange listing through a reverse split at any time after the completion of the 2009 offering. It went through two proxy cycles where the possibility was considered and rejected. While I personally want a national exchange listing very badly, I think the board has made the right decision two years running.
    20 Apr 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Someday, "maybe" we'll see John Houseman saying about Axion getting uplisted, "They make money the old fashioned way...they earn it."

     

    On another TGIF note, in looking for the Smith Barney, John Houseman commercial, I ran across this hilarious Robin Williams vid, about golf, from how the sport was created...to Tiger Woods. Brilliant:

     

    http://bit.ly/JsHOqu
    20 Apr 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    It'd been a wile since I'd seen that one. It's great!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Bar Chart's Cheat Sheet shows various price supports, levels of resistance, and other indicators:

     

    http://bit.ly/I6xgfd

     

    Bar Chart's opinion? Strong Buy:

     

    http://bit.ly/HZWiiW
    20 Apr 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Found this presentation on Curacao that includes part of the Axion Powerpoint from December ...

     

    Interestingly, it appears be some type of adaption and now has Vani's name and someone named Michael Garvin from Renais LLC.

     

    http://bit.ly/JsHqIx
    20 Apr 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Renais LLC is apparently a green solutions integrator out of Iowa that's obviously including the PbC in it's pitch to potential clients.
    http://bit.ly/HVDlym
    Curacao could be cool. A Caribbean island with a population of 143,000 that's dependent on oil for electricity generation. It would certainly be fun to go inspect a PowerCube installation in Curacao and write it off as a due diligence cost.
    20 Apr 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    JP> I've been considering places in the world I could go spend six months at a time so I could play some serious online poker again. Hadn't thought about Curacao so I spent a little time looking at the wiki. Turns out they have a nice little island along with one of the largest legal brothels in the world http://bit.ly/Jf1xYP
    20 Apr 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2281) | Send Message
     
    Data point:
    The CIA has a view (on the country in general:)

     

    Trafficking in persons:

     

    current situation: Curacao is a source, transit, and destination area for women, children, and men subjected to sex trafficking and forced labor; foreign trafficking victims originate in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Asia

     

    tier rating: Tier 2 Watch List - Curacao does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking; however, it is making significant efforts to do so; despite these efforts, the government has not increased its efforts over the previous year; it has not enacted comprehensive legislation that would prohibit all forms of human trafficking; it has not enhanced victim protections; it has not identified victims of forced or child prostitution (2011)

     

    http://1.usa.gov/HVw3Wd
    21 Apr 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    I see the community storage system made the slide show. A mini-cube paired with a green pad mount transformer to server several homes...
    21 Apr 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    It appears to me that what little selling or buying that is occurring looks very controlled to me with sellers unwilling to sell anymore volume than essentially .42 or better prices can support. Looks professional to me. With no volume and selling so controlled it is just a matter of time until it breaks to the upside IMHO. CC is probably the week of the 14th of May so I expect price to wallow until momo traders come into the stock in anticipation of the CC.

     

    In the meantime retail buyers may be willing to establish or expand holdings at .42 to .44. Assuming TG knew what he was talking about in in terms of increased revenues in 2012 and 2013 anyone who buys now with the intent to hold for 12-24 months should be able to buy at today's prices with impunity.
    20 Apr 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    There's also some pending presentation at a conference by Vani on 03 May? Can anyone confirm? (I've lost the link) Not sure if it will precipitate any action, but at the very least we may be able to see some updated powerpoints...
    20 Apr 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    It's nice to see a professional business development program obviously in motion under Vani's direction. Warms the cockles of my heart. What is nice is that Vani has an exceptional technical background and can hold his own during Q&A's versus a pure peddler like me. I wanted what he's doing to be in motion ages ago, but I can't fault Axion's timing.
    20 Apr 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Price still looks a bit weak to me with demand at .43 being minimal, could have been a little self-fulfilling prophecy from the TA indicators mentioned but who knows, we do know volume fell off the cliff again. I think seeing .37 or even .38 or .39 is a bit of a stretch though. Our 10-day VWMA never went below .39 and the 5-day MA never touched .385.

     

    .42 seems to be good resistance looking back over this year. We bounced off of it when we backtracked in Jan. during the run up. In mid-feb. after the offering it took a good amount of volume between .42-.46 before it finally gave way (we were averaging 300k-500k shares a day then). If we do break below it, it will be for a day or two, imo. I just have not seen a lot of evidence of sellers trying to squeeze their way out the door at these prices.
    20 Apr 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    agreed Jakurtz
    I cant see massive selling. Appears to be minor traders getting in and out. No recent volume to speak of.

     

    What happens when an announcement makes the stock buyable?

     

    Since the last run up we have more NS employees in on the scoop. Residential PowerCube coming on. Many employees seeing that coming. How about those European start/stop guys all figuring out how well the PbC works.
    Maybe no one in these companies look for stock bargains. Maybe some do. All I know is that the product will make or break this company.So far it all seems make.
    20 Apr 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    "I just have not seen a lot of evidence of sellers trying to squeeze their way out the door at these prices." Precisely. Someone is going to have to decide to dump a ton of shares at whatever the market offers to drive it below .40 IMHO.
    20 Apr 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    PS: If it gets "stinky" enough price-wise this catfish is going to rise to the bait.
    20 Apr 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    You're thinking of the 22nd Annual Meeting of the Electricity Storage Association on May 2-4 in DC where Vani is a scheduled speaker:

     

    http://bit.ly/HZIvnp

     

    The ESA is the top annual event for grid scale storage sector.
    20 Apr 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4334) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... If you'd like a scenario that could undermine your belief and isn't really expressed in the charts, I'll give you one. TG guided a 300% earnings growth for this year and conveyed the impression that something was going to happen ... soon. Knowing how impatient some people are at the moment, I get the feeling that the expectation is that something will happen before the next CC. If nothing happens or we get another 40 battery evaluation project I'm thinking that a lot of shares will get dumped. If that something is bigger but not the arrival of Customer No. 1 then look for a short term bump on a few pennies up that will get sold aggressively back down to where we are now or to resistance around $0.37.

     

    Nothing TA about it ... but what the hey.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    DRich> I can't argue with that scenario. I don't know why anyone is expecting anything before the next conference call - I call that hopium. On the other hand I expect something before or at the 2nd quarter conference call.

     

    The charts appear to support a break to the downside as HTL suggests. On the other hand price has closed at .42 or above almost the entire month of April with over 1M shares traded, including a 500K share day and a couple around 300K. Any downtrend is likely to be slow, but may hit .40. I still doubt below .40. CC is less than a month away.

     

    We have TG saying 300% increase in revenues this year. If that holds true the numbers need to demonstrate that with the Q2 CC. As for Q1, there should be some sort of encouraging news and revenues but I wouldn't hazard a guess. If flooded battery sales show growth over Q4 that would be positive. If they sell some PbC's to anybody new that would be encouraging. If someone buys a Powercube that would be encouraging.

     

    So far everything has been slow to occur for this company. The stock would try the patience of Job. The only sensible approach to Axion is buy what you can hold for the long haul and can afford to lose if it doesn't work out. Me? I'm all in, can't really afford to lose it, but I love a good gamble. Just got to wait and see how the hand turns out.
    20 Apr 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    While it wasn't guidance per se, Tom clearly said he expected the 300% YoY growth to continue through 2012. By the time he made the statement Q1-12 was over. I can't imagine Tom publicly setting a goal on March 30th that he knew he was going to miss when he reported Q1-12 results on May 15th.

     

    For most companies, Q4 revenues get lost in year-end results. My back of the napkin calculations peg Axion's Q4-11 revenue at $2.85 million. A smooth ramp that would take them to $32 million for 2012 will require Q1-12 revenues in the $4.5 million range. A 300% YoY growth from Q1-11 will require revenues in the $4.25 million range.

     

    If Axion even comes close to that range, many jaws will drop at an annualized revenue that's already 2x 2011.
    21 Apr 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    No explosive move up is happening without good or great news about the PbC. In the abscence of that news, expect to see more sideways motion, and eventually, down.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    In my experience stock prices in nano- and micro-cap companies are most heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics and *news* is frequently irrelevant. Over the last 30 years the most explosive upside runs I've seen have happened for no obvious reason and were only identifiable in the rear view mirror. I've written Instablogs about a couple of them.

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

     

    I can't predict when Axion will begin to run or how far it will run, but my sense of deja vu is getting very strong.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2269) | Send Message
     
    John, knowing TG would you now expect Q1-12 revenues of over 4M? Or would you consider it a surprise versus a calculated expectation?

     

    I do agree that TG's comments already had insight into the May15 report thus I now wonder if TG was just being optimistic on 2012 in general or if he was already tipping his cards that he was holding for Q1.
    21 Apr 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    Tom would not have created expectations by setting a high 2012 target if he knew the May 15th news would be disappointing. The ~$4 million range is my back of the napkin calculation, but many will be very surprised if I'm right.
    21 Apr 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    My experience is a blend. In the short run, with really small mkt cap companies, either company news or unrelated investor actions can correlate better with the mkt price than anything else. One or two big sellers or buyers can become the mkt. Or terrific news can. But in the long run, the stk price often correlates best with company developments.

     

    I'm thinking that at the current price, a lot of Axionistas are just waiting for good news. And I think at the margin, the Axionistas have a lot of power now. Hope you've helped create a friendly monster, JP!
    21 Apr 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    When I look back at the last two years where the stock price has been under constant pressure I see nothing but terrific news.

     

    In June 2010 Axion announced a relationship with Norfolk Southern;
    In September 2010 it announced a relationship with BMW;
    In March 2011 it got a big flooded battery contract;
    In November 2011 its PowerCube was tied into PJM;
    Year on Year sales growth 2010 to 2011 was 300%
    Management has said they expect another 300% growth this year.

     

    In a normal market each of those events would have given the stock a boost. Because of a FUBAR supply and demand dynamic, the price got clobbered while the partners proliferated and Axion's business thrived.

     

    It's easy to assume that the problem has been a lack of news. I defy anybody to show me another $50 million market cap company with two disclosed first tier partners working on different billion dollar niches. We've had great news over the last two years but bad market dynamics kept the stock down. Once the twisted market dynamics are resolved, and they're very close to being resolved, the stock should return to an objective fair market value with a vengeance.
    21 Apr 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    If one were to do a forensic analysis of why the stk price is way, way down from its peak, what would be mentioned as the biggest reasons for the fall? IMO at or near the top is that they took much longer than expected to get to this point in their development. Their stk chart even looks like the steady, drip drip drip of disappointment.

     

    We'll never know, but had developments occured much faster, than IMO any giant stk dumping would have been more than offset with giant stk buying. The 'better late than never' price of 40 cents would never have happened.

     

    And I wouldn't be here. So for me personally, it was a giant gift. Danke schoen.
    22 Apr 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    That's the difference between you and me. I do the forensic analysis on a daily basis because 1.5 million shares are a big enough piece of my net worth to justify the work. I also have the benefit of 32 years experience as a securities lawyer who knows all the hidden arcane corners where data can be found.

     

    Your opinion on this particular matter doesn't impress me because the facts prove you wrong.
    22 Apr 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    I can't even tell what your point is, exactly.

     

    Mine is that several things can, and almost always do, have a large influence on a stock price. Sometimes individually/sequentia... sometimes concurrently.

     

    Company news. Investor news. Trading mkt news.

     

    Two large holders bail over only 9 months. No large holders take their place. The stock goes down. Of course. But with good enough news, the stock not only doesn't go down, it goes up. Of course. The news just hasn't been good enough.
    22 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    That's simply not true in a micro-cap company that's transitioning from an illiquid market to a liquid one.

     

    In 2009, the total reported trading volume for the year was 7.2 million shares. In 2010, that number increased to 22 million shares.

     

    When you cut both of those figures in half to reflect the OTCBB double count, the existence three large holders with a combined total of 25 million shares to sell was catastrophic.

     

    Trying to apply generic knowledge to specific circumstances sometimes leads to inaccurate conclusions. That's what you're doing right now.
    22 Apr 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmm, that is so darn interesting. It is not a news issue; it is a liquidity issue. A large buyer is not going to come in on the open-market and buy 8M shares from another large seller when only 22M shares traded the entire year before, regardless of the news.

     

    I was on both sides of the fence on this at first reading the comments. Generally speaking in a normal liquid security Mr investor is right; specifically speaking with the details surrounding Axion in focus, Petersen's argument appears to be *more* right.

     

    Regardless, good stuff from both of you...thanks!
    22 Apr 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29175) | Send Message
     
    The best part of the story is that it's all history now. The estate doesn't have any shares left and neither does Special Situations. Quercus is little more than a road bump. The 25 million shares that were in the hands of the big three are now in the hands of a thousand individuals who all have different goals. For the last two years there has been no active public market in Axion's stock because there was plenty of diversity on the buy side but no diversity on the sell side.

     

    Now we're going to find out what happens when there's adequate diversity on both sides of the market.
    22 Apr 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    "The best part of the story is that it's all history now."

     

    Amen, Amen, Amen.

     

    It is Sunday. If I don't hear another Amen out there then I know this group has gone to the dark side.

     

    Please answer affirmatively.
    22 Apr 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    Just got back from church so I'll throw in a praise the Lord!
    22 Apr 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    Electric-vehicle battery safety examined by US auto regulators

     

    http://bo.st/JsAZ5x
    20 Apr 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Magousq,
    Nice catch.
    My only surprise is that this didn't happen sooner.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ----------------------...
    This way to the next concentrator and a "fun little chart" from jakurtz

     

    http://bit.ly/JfwpuM

     

    ----------------------...
    21 Apr 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (690) | Send Message
     
    I am not able to load the new concentrator.
    21 Apr 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (690) | Send Message
     
    Just a little too anxious. Working fine now!
    21 Apr 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
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