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  • Axion Power Concentrator 90: April 21, 2012: History Repeating? The Chart Pattern Before The 2011 Run And Now. 281 comments
    Apr 24, 2012 1:14 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    History Repeating or At Least Rhyming? From Jakurtz

    I don't know if it means much technically but it sure is fun to look at...Check out this little chart highlighting the similarities between the past four months and the four months leading up to the 2011 run to $1.27. If history does repeat or even rhyme you have about another week to collect your shares and climb aboard before the train whistles out of the station -- No pressure.

    (click to enlarge)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated through close April 20)

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart on Concentrator Comments: updated April 21

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the charts.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    -----------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    This is a troll free zone. All disruptive comments and AUTHOR of such comments that violate Seeking Alpha's Terms of Use Agreement will be permanently removed and comments will be recorded in a separate Instablog.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (282)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last post from Mago...
    ----------------------...

     

    Electric-vehicle battery safety examined by US auto regulators

     

    http://bo.st/JsAZ5x

     

    ----------------------...
    21 Apr 2012, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    That article ties very neatly with my blog for this week, "Is Lithium-ion a Borgia Battery?" The blog is up on Altenergystocks.com now and should hit Seeking Alpha tomorrow morning.
    21 Apr 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    From the article.
    "we had the massive explosion that injured five and did significant damage to the Alternative Energy Center testing area including blowing out windows and at least one 8” thick door. Afterwards, the reports indicate that the battery pack itself was still intact"

     

    It causes structural damage, blows out windows, an 8" door and we're supposed to believe "the battery pack itself was still intact"? Paalease.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It is possible for a battery pack to blow out safety vents and release clouds of poison gas without apparent physical destruction of the pack itself.

     

    Think of a blown radiator cap on a summer afternoon in Phoenix. You could honestly claim that the radiator was still intact.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    I can definitely imagine a scenario with many liters of hydrogen in the room going boom. If the explosion was ignited above the heavy battery, sitting on a solid cement test bed, I could see it essentially undamaged - batteries do not crush easily, and the force of the explosion would not move the battery laterally.

     

    Of course, they may be lying or wrong. I'll give them the benefit of doubt until proven false.

     

    I am somewhat skeptical of the speculation that this was primarily a H2S explosion. H2S is so smelly somebody would have been screaming to turn the %^$#^ test off. H2 has no smell, could accumulate at the ceiling for a long time with nobody noticing, then boom.

     

    I am not denying H2S presence, just that it may not have been the principal exploding chemical. A little H2S goes a long way; H2S is detectable at 0.0047 ppm http://bit.ly/HQUSnw . The other 999,999.9 ppm could have been undetected hydrogen gas. I have no idea if the H2 explosion would have ignited or burned the H2S at such a dilute concentration.

     

    I hope this was primarily a hydrogen explosion. Heavier than air H2S settling in crashed cars, one breath lethal at 1 ppt, is a much more serious problem than lighter than air hydrogen floating away.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Extreme battery testing is performed in tightly sealed chambers that are designed to manage explosive forces. That's where the 8" door came from.

     

    The *we* language in the Torque News report could only come from somebody who was a GM insider, because anybody else would have said *they*

     

    Knowing just how dangerous H2S is I waited several days for GM or A123 to clarify and they didn't. A simple Google search will get you to hundreds of press reports that specify "hydrogen-sulfide" as the culprit. Make no mistake, I want the reports to be wrong. But the silence is deafening.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    OT...un peu

     

    In my quest to learn and understand the entire energy conundrum, i.e ..."For every complex problem," H.L. Mencken wrote, "there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong."

     

    "Alongside the need for technical experts, therefore, we also need generalists who can act as cultural watchdogs and translators. Of course the media might appear to be charged with this role, but in practical terms, the media's resources are increasing squeezed, limiting the time reporters have to do the time of in-depth digging that is required. As for politicians and regulators who are tasked with oversight, they too often are compromised by conflict of interest and are at any rate spread dangerously thin"

     

    FOOLS GOLD, Gillian Tett

     

    Think energy policies...economic policies et al!
    21 Apr 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    KIA sets new commuter standards:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/IH6869

     

    this is a nice read, especially the last half of the article ...
    21 Apr 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    My work has me in contact with a Kia dealer all the time. I believe both the Optima and Hyundai Sonata are excellent values at the reported price.( 35 mpg city, 40 mpg highway). Feature for feature the Hybrid is only $2,800 above the standard EX model it is based on.

     

    However, for my family needs we bought a $18,100 Kia Soul. (26mpg city, 36 mpg highway). We wanted the $26,500 Hybrid Optima but could not economically justify the difference in gas savings. Plus the wife fell in love with the ugly Soul. Since she also fell in love with my ugly soul I could not deny her wish.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    LOL ... wives always get their way ! I know mine does. The Korean auto maker has made great strides in their quality, dependability & styling of vehicles. I would love this company to do a deal with AXPW.
    21 Apr 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I just wanted to make a note that I intended my chart to be pretty interesting and a little entertaining -- hope others enjoy it.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The fascinating thing about your chart is that there was an identical pattern in the weighted moving average price lines.

     

    I did some quick calculations this morning and found that in January 2011 the 10-day VWMA flat-lined for nine trading days at 93% of the 200-day VWMA and then busted through in two days.

     

    For the last five days the 10-day VWMA has flat-lined at 93% of the 200-day VWMA.

     

    I agree with your conclusion that the same market dynamic seems to be falling into place. The difference is that this time around Axion doesn't have 25 million shares in the hands of big holders that want to sell for reasons that have nothing to do with Axion's business performance.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I agree. I thought that was very interesting as well, seeing your VWMA chart next to mine gives a visualization to the similar patterns. The last week of Jan. 2011 the 10-day VWMA passing up through the 20-day and the 50-day almost exactly like it did the past 2 weeks. If it continues to replicate, the 10-day will continue to level out some next week and then take off through the 200-day as you say...and no dinosaur holders.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've never had much luck with short term TA, but I've found that long term measures are usually pretty accurate. If I was trying to bottom feed and hoping for a retreat back into the $.30s, I'd be rethinking my strategy.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    One thing that is interesting, and I don't know the implications, is the fact that while the highlighted price areas appear eerily almost identical to each other, the corresponding volumes do not... the 2012 volume numbers are much bigger...so many, many more shares participated in this year's pattern vice last... what could this mean and what does it portend?
    21 Apr 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The current 50-day average volume of 222,000 shares isn't that much higher than the January of 2011 50 day volume of 200,000.

     

    The current 200-day average volume of 318,000 makes last year's 200-day average of 116,500 look pretty anemic.

     

    Over the last year we had a lot of selling from people who wanted out regardless of the price and were willing to accept losses. I believe the bulk of the buying has come from patient holders who won't be very interested in flipping for a simple double. If that theory proves true, I see an very strong base in place with a limited number of available shares to satisfy future demand.

     

    The biggest factor in my mind is the absence of two or three holders who have several million shares each that they can throw at the market. I suppose time will tell.
    21 Apr 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Love the chart. Like the fact that it looks like an explosion is about t happen.
    But I can not reitterate enough that last year there were two Huge sellers that could not be swayed from selling. There is no indication that a few million shares are now about to be dumped on the market.

     

    I get that there are a few hundred thousand shares out there that might be sold or flipped. But those run out fast when someone want to buy in to Axion. Any strong movement to buy a few hundred thousand shares , when the supply dries up, can move this stock up dramatically.

     

    As I have postulated before. The more testing that is done on PbC batteries, the more employees of testing companies come to know the great value of these batteries. Different European OEMs. Railroads, home PowerCube retailers, and commercial architects. Let alone the thousand of Electrical Utility employees that are looking at this product.
    The list goes on as to who might invest in the PbC battery. But the list grows longer. Someday there will be no stock for sale at this price.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    What is very...odd(?).. is that in all these concentrators, now 90, and John's articles, whose visibility via google, thanks in part to efforts of Bang and others, has increased dramatically in the past year, what is odd is that in all these venues, we have to my knowledge, never heard from any the employees of the principle organizations: Axion, BMW, PJM, GM, viridity, East Penn, Penn State, Delhousie, Exide, NS... well perhaps with an exception or two from the periphery of NS... anyway it's hard to imagine that at least some of this cohort are not readers/lurkers here, but man, if so, they are quite a disciplined lot, no? ;) Perhaps some do comment, but keep any affiliation from mention... of course it's likely that the very ones who would be in a position to know the most are also under some kind of heavy restriction from discussing and/or investing in Axion anyway... Still, it certainly is an intriguing avenue for thought....and perhaps one day, much that is hidden now will be made known...
    21 Apr 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    48...

     

    Having some experience in multiple banking buyouts, don't assume many insiders (employees) are aware of the big picture...in my experience, they are not "investors"...they mostly keep their head down and do their job. (even many CFOs!)

     

    1st bank I worked at....17 cents per share at it's worst (bottom)...woulda ...coulda ...shoulda...sold out at $5 per share.
    (no...I missed the shot...thinking FDIC might be across the street on any given Friday afternoon...e.g...-0- stock value))
    Once I understood the dynamics, I placed 75% of my 401K in a bank stock at another bank I worked at, thinking it was in play... a 2 - 3 year time horizon...bank bought out in 18 months.

     

    Having said that, there will be some "in the know"...BUT...have to be careful...i.e. ...restrictions.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Hydrogenics Announces Agreement with Enbridge

     

    Includes Equity Investment of CA$5.0 million to Develop Hydrogen Energy Storage 'Power-to-Gas' Opportunity

     

    http://bit.ly/JfW1tG

     

    "This clean energy solution establishes a bridge between the electricity and natural gas networks to bring seasonal storage capabilities to electricity networks. It also underscores the importance of pipelines in meeting the objective of increased renewable energy penetration"

     

    Don't really understand what's happening here or its ramification ... comments?
    21 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It's a cute idea. They'll use off-peak electricity to make hydrogen from water and then feed the hydrogen into existing natural gas pipeline and storage infrastructure. Presumably a mixture that's mostly methane with a little hydrogen mixed in will be easier to handle than pure hydrogen.

     

    The biggest problem I see is that methane's energy value is 900 BTU/cu ft while hydrogen's is only 319 BTU/cu ft. Since natural gas is priced on the basis of heating value, a cubic foot of hydrogen will only have 1/3 the value of a cubic foot of methane. That makes for a tough economic equation even if the press release sounds cool.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Probably they'll limit the % of hydrogen to avoid potential corrosion problems in the pipes. I wonder if the joints all along the routes are all tight enough to prevent leakage.

     

    Anyway, if the % of Hydrogen mixture is very small, the effect on net energy available may not be noticeable to the average user. And with a very small %, pricing could be left untouched I guess.

     

    I can't imagine a quantity being generated that is large enough to have a noticeable effect with the thousands of miles of pipe, after diffusion.

     

    On another note, with water shortages seemingly spreading slowly around the world, I wonder just how wise this is.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1732) | Send Message
     
    This has ramifications for fuel cell use.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    For more on this Hydrogenics/Enbridge announcement see the top story at altenergystocks.com as of Tuesday morning.
    http://bit.ly/yE6bt4
    24 Apr 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Background from Hydrogenics with more detail:

     

    Injecting only small amounts of hydrogen into the gas grid (less than 5% by volume) offers significant potential. In large markets, like Ontario, the energy storage potential could provide power for over 160,000 homes. This is the equivalent of the new Niagara Tunnel hydro power project in Niagara Falls.

     

    and…

     

    Every GJ of hydrogen produced by a Power-to-Gas application converting surplus renewable generation will displace one GJ of natural gas consumption with a commensurate reduction of 56kg of CO2 equivalent. The estimated annual GHG reduction from a 100MW Power-to-Gas project would be 25 CO2 equivalent kilotonnes.

     

    and…

     

    The first stage will be to develop a 1 MW Power-to-Gas pilot project in Ontario to test the integrated system, develop gas network interconnections and work with the IESO and Canadian Gas Association to design the operating standards and market protocols to run a Power-to-Gas application. After developing commercial scale electrolyzer capability, Hydrogenics will have the opportunity to participate in up to 50% ownership in a build own operate model for energy storage projects with Enbridge.
    24 Apr 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    >>Every GJ of hydrogen produced by a Power-to-Gas application converting surplus renewable generation will displace one GJ of natural gas consumption with a commensurate reduction of 56kg of CO2 equivalent. The estimated annual GHG reduction from a 100MW Power-to-Gas project would be 25 CO2 equivalent kilotonnes.<<

     

    If JP is correct that the plan is to use off-peak "excess" conventional power generation to create hydrogen, then this is crazy.

     

    The problem here is that if the electrons used to create the hydrogen came from burning hydrocarbons, then there is no net offset of CO2 production. In fact, since there is no power generation process that is 100% efficient, using hydrocarbons to generate electrons to generate hydrogen to displace hydrocarbons will lead to a net INCREASE in CO2 production for the end result of usable energy applied to heat homes, cook, or generate power.

     

    It is only where all of the electrons come from "renewable" (non-carbon-based) energy that this makes any sense as a strategy for reducing carbon output. But such renewables (sun, wind, etc.) are not likely to be generating "off-peak excess" energy, are they? Maybe hydro and geothermal could be used here, but then wouldn't it make more sense to store the energy in a more efficient form, with fewer conversion losses? (e.g. A PowerCube at 90-95% efficient?)
    24 Apr 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Actually I think the plan is to use off-peak wind rather than off-peak conventional, but it's still little more than rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
    24 Apr 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure you already realized this, SMaturin, but I believe wind does tend to generate off-peak energy. The wind tends to blow more at night.
    In Germany, Siemens is making a push for investment in electrolysis for storage because all of the off-shore wind electricity they are investing in.

     

    "engineers at Siemens contend that hydrogen offers the best energy storage solution because of the drawbacks associated with other kinds of systems. He said that such facilities are more readily accessible and can be constructed in a large number of environments.

     

    "You could set up an electrolyzer at a location where electricity from an offshore wind park reaches land, for example," he said. "If the wind park were to produce too much electricity, you could use it to produce hydrogen, which could then be stored in a cavern."

     

    He said that combining the efficiency of electrolysis with that of a gas turbine, the resulting "energy-recirculation" process would still be able to make use of up to 45 percent of the original energy.

     

    "That's not as good as a pumped-storage plant," he conceded, "but it's better than shutting down windmills when demand isn't there."

     

    http://bit.ly/JmjLtV
    24 Apr 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: "The wind tends to blow more at night."

     

    Huh? Dyslexia moment? Or, thinking of those bean-eating cowboys cobbled around the nighttime fire in Blazing Saddles?
    24 Apr 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Yes, the wind blows at night, and water still flows over the dam at night. But would it not be more efficient to turn off the hydrocarbon plants then, and feed that non-carbon-based energy into the grid instead?

     

    Like JP says, it is just rearranging the deck chairs, when the whole grid is interconnected.

     

    If a country or region relied entirely on non-carbon sources of electricity generation, then this strategy makes perfect sense as a form of energy storage. But when your grid depends on both carbon and other sources, it seems to me you save more carbon by turning off the carbon generators and relying on the other sources during off peak.
    24 Apr 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Coal can ramp up and down a bit, but it basically has to run 24/7. So turning it off really isn't an option.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Well said. Germany does intend to rely on non-carbon sources, including IIRC for 30% of its electricity by 2020.

     

    Ontario is also serious about de-carbonizing. That said, isn't it true that fossil fuel plants do not lend themselves well to shutting down and re-starting intermittently? I believe that is true for coal at least.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I understand the "inertia" in the combustion-based power systems.

     

    I guess my concern is just how efficient this electrons-to-hydrogen- to combustion cycle is compared to storing the electrons in an efficient battery, like the PbC. It sort of offends my "sense of thermodynamic efficiency." Lots of energy lost to entropy in this system.

     

    I would love to see some hard numbers about energy conversion efficiency of this plan, not just talk about carbon offsets.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, the huge issue that will face Germany is not carbon vs non-carbon energy, but dispatchable vs non-dispatchable. Wind and PV energy cannot be ramped up to match demand, and often does not exist at all.

     

    Fossil fuels and nukes make then energy when it is needed. I do not see any possible way Germany will be able to function with 30% "random" power generation, and no nukes. I have seen a lot of hot air and posturing, but no technical plans.

     

    Ontario has an option for reducing its carbon. There are huge hydro resources in Quebec and Labrador (La Grande River, Churchill Falls) that are under-utilized. Hydro is a perfect compliment to erratic energy supplies, since it can ramp up instantly when the wild stops.

     

    Coal plants do take over 24 hours to startup or shut down.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There are a lot of stories coming out of Germany right now about how they need to get serious about storage yesterday. So far there hasn't been much concrete enough to write about it but payday is coming.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your input, Rick. I have read that Germany has *very* ambitious plans for off-shore wind, thus the interest in hydrogen storage. No doubt the need for storage is still under-appreciated by the general public, as you point out.

     

    SMaturin, I agree with you regarding the PbC. I imagine that the proposed hydrogen storage is expected to be cheaper than any battery but then there are many unknowns.
    24 Apr 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1553) | Send Message
     
    I think Germany needs the Powercube...
    25 Apr 2012, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Interesting chart parallel Jakurtz. Let's see what happens! There has been quite a lot of support for .42 so maybe it will break to the upside given a CC is only a few weeks away.

     

    Until DRich's oft noted Customer No 1 comes along the price changes up or down don't mean much except to core traders and as a pleasant diversion for the day. Watching an upside run is a fun way to spend time waiting for the real show.
    21 Apr 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Any one else seeing posts disappear?
    21 Apr 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think what happens is that replies to comments get torched if you go back and edit the original after the reply is posted.
    21 Apr 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    Is this called Karma?

     

    While waiting at a traffic light today, the driver in the car next to me beeped...asked me where the closest gas station was...as she pulled away from me, I noticed she was driving a Toyota Prius.

     

    I am a fact based, hard data, fundamental type, but given we continue to "watch the paint dry" re AXPW stock, made me wanna go...hmmmm!
    21 Apr 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Made me smile. Thanks for the story.
    21 Apr 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Talk to any wrecker operator about calls to stranded EV motorists expecting him to just provide a "quick charge" to get them home. Its starting to happen, and yes, they think their roadside service includes a free tow back home (and no, it doesn't really do that) and yes, they ARE irate when they find out the facts...
    23 Apr 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    PJM has responded to a recent Viridity Energy complaint against them:

     

    http://pjm.com~/media/documents/ferc...

     

    It's not war, but it is, I would think, creating some uncertainty in the market.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Your link didn't seem to work. If you go here: http://bit.ly/I1foX9 and do a find in your browser for Viridity it will give you the same document wtblanchard posted. ( at least for now ). I posted a permanent link under "Regulatory Links" on the APC website.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    What a great answer to this complaint. It actually gives us novices a look at what both companies are trying to achieve.
    First i want to point out that these companies, even in litigation, are not exactly enemies.
    "PJM supports the concept of CSP flexibility with respect to representing end-use customers and facilitating their participation in the various PJM electricity markets. However, while PJM believes that Viridity’s proposal may be a beneficial design change, PJM is opposed to the request to incorporate the proposal into PJM’s load response rules without first considering the need for and approaches to implementing further PJM market rule modifications required to ensure that Viridity’s proposal can work harmoniously with PJM’s existing market design.

     

    Second: It seems by this comment that PJM agrees with Viridity but simply wants the commission to figure out a few wrinkles.
    "For example, an Economic Load Response CSP offers and clears a resource in the Day-ahead Energy Market for six hours, and then, in real-time an emergency event is called for two of the six hours that the Economic Load Response CSP cleared in the Day-ahead Energy Market. Here the ELRP CSP would be paid the floor price for the two hour emergency event, but what happens to the Economic Load Response CSP? If PJM allows the Economic Load Response CSP to keep the payment for those two hours that were cleared in the Day-ahead Energy Market, then PJM is paying twice for the same MW reduction. Does PJM socialize the added costs? Or, must the Economic Load Response CSP buy back energy at Real-time Energy Market clearing prices, and be assessed a deviation charge for those two hours? Neither result appears to be just and reasonable on its face. Such issues may be less obvious in terms of Viridity’s proposal, but these are real-world problems that must be addressed before Viridity’s proposal may be implemented as part of PJM’s market rules."

     

    Finally: the conclusion
    As is demonstrated in this answer, while there may be some potential design value in Viridity’s proposal, Viridity’s proposal does raise a number of concerns that must be addressed prior to the implementation thereof. Otherwise, all parties risk unworkable results that reignite measurement and verification issues and offend the very core"

     

    I might not know much about lawsuits but this is the friendliest dispute I have read in a long time.
    21 Apr 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    PJM and the other major utilities are in favor of the back up systems, but they have fought on all fronts of paying more for "clean/renewable energy".(solar, wind, now battery) ... some complaints as you say are legit, but don't forget they make their money "selling" electricity. Anything that reduces their sales or costs them more will be fought. I am not totally sure that the utilities want every big customer selling them power back.

     

    This is one of the problems with new tech, market acceptance. Deals have to be made...I remember when MSFT business model caught h_ ll because they charged a "per user" fee....not a one time negotiable one price to the corporation using their software no matter how many stations were installed. Corp. users hated to pay that much.
    21 Apr 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I'm not suggesting that there isn't a real disagreement about how and how much should be paid. Just suggesting that the language was pretty much " I love my enemy. Can't we all just figure out how to get along" type of debate.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    No pun was intended Futurist... I just added a little spice

     

    If I remember correctly, the utilities did fight the new (I forget the initials) FERC ? FINRA? rules and I think were surprised at the ruling of having to pay/buy back electricity....my point is for the most part they hate change.
    21 Apr 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    FERC
    21 Apr 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    OT...a little

     

    Subscription needed, but note context.
    As a banker (moi) with 35 years experience...CFPB a superfluous agency.
    Driven by a Harvard University Professor with NO banking experience!
    FDIC capable of handling abuses versus adding ANOTHER agency. (Bureucratic staffing versus experience)

     

    Equate U.S Dept. of Energy with CFPB...'nough said!

     

    CFPB Embraces Contentious 'Disparate Impact' Theory for Discriminatory Lending

     

    "The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it plans to follow the Justice Department's lead in pursuing fair lending violations when a policy has a disparate impact on a group of borrowers, unintentional or not."

     

    http://bit.ly/Jo4OIW
    21 Apr 2012, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Mag, this conversation may get pretty OT but I'm still interested in hearing your perspective.

     

    I'm torn because I have this contempt for bureaucracy but also recognize that the consumer has been victimized by credit card companies and banks.

     

    So if the FDIC can handle this then why didn't they?

     

    I should also say that I have a general sense that small and medium-sized banks, community banks were, in general, not the culprits here - is this true?

     

    If we had let the big banks fail, would well-run and responsible smaller and medium-sized institutions have been able to pick up the slack? I have long believed they could but would like to hear your opinion as an insider.

     

    D
    22 Apr 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    D. M. I know u directed this to Mag, but I want to take a stab too.

     

    The consumer has been ripped off by big banks and credit cards. Example is check overdraft fees, this made the big banks worse than a pawn shop ... they cover small checks for a $30 fee, sometimes cleared one big check (house payment) so that they could charge multiple $30 fees for what was basically a small overdraft...can you imagine a family struggling to make ends meet for whatever reason, (health, loss of job, etc, not just overextended) who did not know they were overdrawn because of the fees that they did NOT know they had been assessed until the statements came in the snail mail ? There is much much more, they don't invest nearly as much in us as they do monopolizing a market, playing commodities, etc. all with our money.

     

    Small & community banks for the most part remained solid, and kept their customers somewhat between the ditches on credit, not allowing them to over leverage in most cases.

     

    I am very indecisive on what I think about the bail out of the big banks. I really believe that if we let them collapse that with $400-600 trillion in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and derivitives that the entire world went bankrupt. Simply put, there just isn't that much money. Thus, why AIG was saved. Which I NEVER thought the gov't would come out on AIG. But, they are. Unbelievable.

     

    On the other hand, the real culprits, Goldman Sachs, big banks, but mostly Wall St. got away scott free. This I do not like and agree with you in a way, that they should have been let go just like Lehman. We will always debate this issue with no better outcome than we have now. Greenspan was the culprit in most of this, first was leverage is good, then Housing loans were good, then second mortgages were better. Ratio's were also changed on income vs. loan amount.

     

    In defense of the banks, (NOT Wall St. bankers like GS) they did just what washington asked them to do after 9/11 and that was open their coffers and lend. People were asked to spend money they did not have. So it's a catch 22. The gov't would have had to nationalize them and absorb the losses then disperse the crumbs left to the smaller regional banks and community banks.

     

    In defense of Obama, after TARP under Bush & Paulson, in which I do believe that Paulson listened to Goldman for advice that we had no other option other than to proceed forward down the road that was already started.

     

    FDIC & SEC funds were cut, so they were understaffed and folded to political pressure and were somewhat under the fingers of the very ones the regulate. I expect that in the future, whenever gov't restructures that both these agencies get put under the CFPB. I really don't know nor does anyone how this new bureau plays out.

     

    They way the banks and Wall St. resist changing their bad habits and politicians folding and watering down the Volcher rule and other new regs, I do sorta wish they had let them fail. The big banks & Wall st. want the deck stacked. They have not been a benefit to the economy but taken the greatest market place and turned it into a casino where they see all the cards first. High Frequency Trading with bogus bid/ask prices is just one example...but it's legal and many have the opinion that they are entitled to a profit for doing Gods work (when the average time a stock is held is a total of 22 seconds now). Flash crashes make them rich. Breaking you makes them richer. Screwing clients now makes ends meet.

     

    For years now, the little guy has been left out of the loop. Politicians bribed, Corporations taken care of first, all new regs and rules in their favor.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    D.McHattie

     

    My rationale for the banking analogy was the similarity in the ineptness of many DOE regulations/subsidized decisions and the regulatory lapse in the financial services sector.

     

    Yes, this could "get pretty OT", but I'll (try to) be brief.
    Probably make a good SA article and ongoing discussion in another SA forum.
    Plenty of history to dissect, but better yet, fodder (investment ideas) to consider as the financial services rebound...I believe it already started.

     

    IMO, credit cards were merely a subset of the real driver...poorly underwritten mortgages (an understatement)...coll... debt obligations...credit default swaps...severely misunderstood and abused.
    FDIC is actually the best (toughest-best trained) of the bank regulators...IMO...versus the OCC and the OTS.
    The SEC and the Federal Reserve Bank were the key regulators who were lapse.(understatement)

     

    Re small, medium community banks "not the culprits"...for the most part true.

     

    "...let the big banks fail, would ...smaller and medium-sized institutions have been able to pick up the slack? "
    IMO...NO.
    Smaller banks easier to regulate ...less "sophisticated" (sarcasm) products than the biggies.
    Two (2) different worlds.

     

    My apologies to all for the OT, but couldn't help observing a common denominator re energy challenges and banking woes...the government, notably, ignorant and oblivious politicians who "resolve" the crisis by finger pointing.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    Re big bank credit cards and overdraft...very true.
    But, plenty of options, smaller banks, less charges...customers just have to shop!
    Caveat emptor!!!

     

    Big banks "...they don't invest nearly as much in us..."..true...bigger profits...bigger risk...BAILOUT.
    When a small bank fails, almost like a tree falling in the forest.
    (assuming FDIC coverage)...when a bank bank fails..."...what a tangled web we weave..."...pun intended.

     

    "... the entire world (would have) went bankrupt"...agreed (IMHO)...would have been a huge risk..too many unknown and known ramifications.

     

    "... the real culprits, Goldman Sachs, big banks, but mostly Wall St. got away scott free."...true...add Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Lehman, Wachovia, Merrill Lynch, AIG et al.

     

    "...they did just what washington asked them to do ...a catch 22. "
    True...to a point...most smaller banks knew when to say no to blind underwriting etc.

     

    "In defense of Obama, ... under Bush & Paulson,...we had no other option other than to proceed ..."...I have significant issues with Obama as a leader, but I agree with your point.

     

    "FDIC & SEC ...understaffed ... political pressure ...under the fingers of the very ones the(y) regulate."...agreed...... compared to Wall Street, lack of "sophisticated" training...this I lay at the feet of politics and politicians. IMHO

     

    " I expect that in the future, whenever gov't restructures that both these agencies get put under the CFPB. I really don't know nor does anyone how this new bureau plays out."
    CFPB...NOPE...gawd I hope not!...address the issues, don't create another agency.

     

    "...Wall st. ... have not been a benefit to the economy but taken the greatest market place and turned it into a casino..." ...you have a point given our current and recent past quagmire.
    23 Apr 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    OT follow up...to one of your points...

     

    Citizens Bank to pay $137.5m to settle overdraft suit

     

    http://bo.st/JCe6Bt
    26 Apr 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Iceland wants to sell geothermal electricity to Europe.

     

    http://arst.ch/tfu

     

    What's that gonna cost?
    21 Apr 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    SM, the article about Iceland selling electricity to Europe smells fishy, Selling 5 bkwhr/yr divides out to a 600 mw plant. Meh, it's the size a single, medium sized gas CC plant. Revenue (selling price) is about 7-9 cents kwhr, not particularly cheap compared to conventional resources. However, the 745 mile cable alone will easily cost over a billion dollars, maybe two.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Rick, that was what I wondered about. After the cost of building the plant and laying 800 miles of high voltage cable under the ocean, would the projected revenue actually make it a profitable enterprise?

     

    Or is this more wishful thinking by politicians?
    22 Apr 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    I think somebody is smoking hopium, but I can be proven wrong. I think Iceland is more likely to want to use its electricity to attract more electricity intensive industries, such as electrowinning (for aluminum and other metals), hydrogen-related chemicals and fuels (NH3), and server farms, etc., which also create local jobs. Exporting electrons creates no local benefits.

     

    Each Google server farm reportedly uses 50 Mw. Non-authoritative link: http://cnnmon.ie/JEWGzm. Add in nine other farms (Apple, Amazon...) , and all the power is used, plus some very good jobs are created. http://bbc.in/JlVJl5
    22 Apr 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Geez, you are right on Rick.
    British data hosting company Verne Global recently opened a data center in Iceland, connected via subsea fiber lines to Europe and the U.S.
    http://bit.ly/I9tnKC
    24 Apr 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    It's also cheaper to cool those data centers if you can just let in cold outside air instead of using electricity to run heat pumps.
    24 Apr 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin ... Probably be cheaper than depending on Russia for natural gas.
    22 Apr 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    Q1 Expectations:

     

    John wrote in last APC: "Tom would not have created expectations by setting a high 2012 target if he knew the May 15th news would be disappointing. The ~$4 million range is my back of the napkin calculation, but many will be very surprised if I'm right."
    http://bit.ly/HSAbrj

     

    I don't really have any new insight to add, but felt the expectations game was worth re-visiting in this APC... TG dropped the 300% guidance on April 2, AFTER the first quarter had ended. So he either 1) saw $4M+ revs as of 3/31 (going off JP's knapkin arithmetic), or 2) strongly believed in a looming PO/announcement that would pay off in Q2-Q3-Q4.

     

    Conversely, if #1 and/or #2 don't occur by next 10-Q and aren't satisfactorily explained in Q1 CC, that could be a red flag?
    22 Apr 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Tom's an old poker player and he knows better than to up the ante because he expects his next card to be an ace.
    22 Apr 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1732) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't borrow trouble. Let's wait, there is no reason to dis-trust him.
    22 Apr 2012, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    This article goes along with Futurist's above post: Note the utilities resistance & "monopoly" part at the end.

     

    Virtual Power Plants:
    http://bit.ly/I4fwjd
    22 Apr 2012, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    OT : GeoThermal can reduce lithium shortage:
    http://bit.ly/I2XlxV
    22 Apr 2012, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Most readers know that I don't have much nice to say about lithium-ion batteries, but I haven't even suggested that lithium shortages would be a problem since May 2009 when R. Keith Evans wrote what I consider the definitive article on that issue.

     

    http://bit.ly/t8fw4H

     

    There was good reason to believe that existing lithium mines would be pressed to keep up with the demand that folks were forecasting a couple years ago, but there's no reason to believe that adequate mine capacity can't be put in place over a few years.

     

    The most critical metal constraint facing the lithium-ion battery industry is cobalt – a metal that's used in all chemistries other than LiFePO4. The world only produces about 100,000 metric tons of cobalt a year and it's essential for a wide variety of superalloys and wear resistant metals.

     

    http://on.doi.gov/JjnbQp

     

    The cobalt cliff is far more important than the lithium road bump.
    22 Apr 2012, 04:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    JP... I did not say anything about lithium batteries...we all know their danger and weaknesses.

     

    Lithium at $2500-5000 / ton could make the difference in cost feasibility for geo-thermal power. I have long thought that of all the clean power that geo-thermal was one of the most cost effective and easiest clean energy to develop. This could even lead to some battery storage in the future.
    22 Apr 2012, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I share your enthusiasm for geothermal power because it's never made sense to me that we're focusing on a burning ball of gas 93 million miles distant when we've got a core of molten rock 5 to 10 miles underfoot. The technical issues are daunting, but I think they may prove easier to solve than the variability of wind and solar.

     

    There's a lot of garbage reporting in the mainstream media that lithium constraints are somehow critical to the future of the battery industry. It's just not true, so I like to point it out whenever possible.
    22 Apr 2012, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    John, I have been talking with Eli about our notification flag issue.
    By any chance, are you on a Mac?
    22 Apr 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Since 1988.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I have received no notifications about new comments on the APC for almost a week. I'm on a Mac. I've been talking to Omkar in tech support, maybe Eli and he can compare notes.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    FPA, I had the same new comment notification problems and FYI I am also on a Mac.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Ho Ho Ho.... that's four Mac users. I will send that on to Eli as well.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    I still own my 128k Mac with the signatures of the Mac development team etched inside :) The things I did on that machine!
    22 Apr 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I replace mine every couple years, but my current machine has twin 3GHz quad core processors and a pair of big cinema displays. It's probably better suited to animating feature films, but you know what they say about boys and their toys. The latest add-on is a 500 GB flash drive which is without question the most important speed option I've ever seen.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I'm still not seeing comment notification either for the concentrators.

     

    I do get notification on articles.

     

    I'm on a PC with Windows Vista.

     

    D
    22 Apr 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    I have not seen comment notification problems in Chrome on a vista pc at work, but notifications on my iPad quit working weeks ago. I only rarely use my MacBook pro these days for reading SA, but notifications seem to have been working in Safari on os10.6 when I do.
    22 Apr 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    JP> Are you running the flash drive as your primary OS drive?
    22 Apr 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Yes I am, and it's wonderful! It's mounted in one of my spare drive bays and functions just like my two hard drives, only much faster. Everything loads in about a fifth of the time it used to take.
    22 Apr 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I looked at my old Dell's data specs and its a SATA-150 supporting only up to 150MBs data transfer rates. My current 320 GB WD sata drive supports up to 3GBs data rates so a SSD wouldn't help me a bit. The drive was just sitting around unused so I tossed it into the Dell. The drive is almost worth more than the laptop and currently sells new at Microcenter for $139.

     

    Unable to work while caring for my mother I have limited means so the Dell D620 was a cost compromise to have something that ran better than my old single core laptops. Any dual core running at 1.8Ghz or better is fine for ordinary surfing, spreadsheets, etc.

     

    Your setup JP sounds like Houston Mission Control to me.
    22 Apr 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I was wondering if it could be an issue for people who use SA on multiple devices for some reason. I logged out of SA on my iPhone thought and that didn't help.

     

    iFrustrated that I have no tracking indications.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Words and numbers, the ones I create and the ones I read, are how I earn my daily bread. Keeping and organizing them so that I can go back five, ten or even 20 years to find key facts is important to me. It's way more computing power than I *need,* but my work would be more difficult without it.
    23 Apr 2012, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    Reminds me of Tim Allen in Home Improvement "more power". ;-)
    23 Apr 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Guilty as charged.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I'm not having any notification problems right now, other than a persistent message that I have "2 new comments on an article: Electric Drive - Still Crazy After Five More Years."

     

    Everything else seems to be working just fine.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    FPA

     

    I use a MacBook Pro using OS X Version 10.6.8.

     

    I logon to Seekingalpha maybe ten times a day.

     

    I have not noticed any problems at all.
    22 Apr 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    I am also on a Mac book pro using OSX 10.7.3. I also recently installed Apple's Java update.

     

    It's a strange problem... Eli sent me a link that brings up a specific article for him. I clicked on the link, and I got a different article. "Same" link sends two users to two different pages? This suggests that the two machines are translating the links differently. It is also strange that both links take people to valid pages. So it's not a random address kind of error. More like a stack pointer error.

     

    One of the problems here is I can't see the full link in Eli's post because SA truncates links. I wish they would loose that "feature" of a bygone age.
    22 Apr 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Here is another company already supplying "alternative energy solutions" to Walmart and others.

     

    http://bit.ly/wdNgJt
    22 Apr 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I have a beat up old Dell 2Ghz dual core laptop running XP I paid $191 for used and I haven't had a bit of problems. :<D
    22 Apr 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eli Hoffmann
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    Hi Folks,

     

    I don't think there's a Mac/PC issue here. The persistent notification bug is something you helped us discover and we're going to fix it. It's the result of a notification going out on an article that has been deleted or reverted to draft; since you can't land on the URL for the article, you can't clear the flag.

     

    Otherwise, I believe all notifications are working correctly.

     

    Best,

     

    Eli
    22 Apr 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for clearing that up Eli !
    22 Apr 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Eli,

     

    This one is still an issue as it looks like the instablog has disappeared.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    That's Rocks Hindenburg Omen Insta... That's the Insta that Eli said has been deleted, or has been converted to a "draft" status. I send Rocks an Email about it a few days ago, but got no reply.... I hope all is well with Rocks.
    22 Apr 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    This is a picture of the GM battery testing facility where the explosion happened. http://tinyurl.com/6nk...
    22 Apr 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    Is GM testing the PbC there? If so, I hope that the testing's not affected.
    22 Apr 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    The battery the caused the explosion is reportedly from A123. There has been no information released whether there were any PbC batteries in the facility, or evidence that GM has been testing them.

     

    Basically, nobody's talking.
    22 Apr 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1732) | Send Message
     
    What did A123 do wrong? This cannot be much fun.
    22 Apr 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Following up on the conversation Friday, I said
    "After that it looks like the market-maker (and others?) *may* be hitting the bid and I would guess this is (mostly?) MM short sales and we'd see another AH trade <= the average of what we might guess is the MM short sales, which we might be able to confirm with the FINRA data tonight."

     

    No AH trade and no short sales at all. With buy:sell near 2:1, *extremely* low volume, no short sales,

     

    416 Vol 282254, Sht 71350 25.28% LHC 0.4210 0.4450 0.4211 b:s 1:2.21
    417 Vol 111155, Sht 00814 00.73% LHC 0.4200 0.4349 0.4202 b:s 1:1.48
    418 Vol 136851, Sht 10000 07.31% LHC 0.4200 0.4300 0.4250 b:s 1:2.38
    419 Vol 113650, Sht 21940 19.30% LHC 0.4160 0.4445 0.4202 b:s 1.15:1
    420 Vol 060724, Sht 00000 00.00% LHC 0.4202 0.4300 0.4260 b:s 1.93:1

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    FYI: Since charts seem to be all the rage these days, I took the time to put up an insta so I could let y'all take a peek.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the peak. What does it mean. I need to buy my final purchase from 2009 -20012. Is today the day?
    22 Apr 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    With daily short sales at zero, volume very low, the recent price trends making small divergence from the longer trend, all I feel is three things: 1) not much movement until some volume and daily short sales indicate market-makers are receiving orders, and 2) we did a grind up to $0.46 and retreated to the (now) infamous $0.42 and stabilized there, and 3) could move a few pennies down or up, but I feel a vacillation around $0.42 will be the trend.

     

    So, $0.39 seems very possible as well as $0.44/$0.45 again. If we don't break consolidation, sideways is the game within a narrow range.

     

    My feeling is a catalyst is needed to move it much. Although others argue there was none last year, when I reviewed Axion's site there was a presentation they were at shortly before the move up. I can't say cause and effect was in play, but I've seen other stocks get a boost after presenting at some conferences.

     

    Been wrong before and will be again, so ...
    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    The Piper Jaffrey conference was announced Jan 5th and held on Jan 12th. The run began Feb 4th.

     

    They announced a Rodman and Renshaw Annual Global conference on Sept 1st that was held on Sept 13th. From Sept 13th through the rest of last year we are all very aware of what the stock price did.

     

    They announced PJM - stock fell
    They announced the toll contract in March - stock finished its run then fell
    They announced relationship with NS June 2010 - stock fell
    Sept, 23 2010 Axion and BMW release joint presentation at ELBC - stock rose 40% and then fell back.

     

    I do believe their is a lot more evidence of the stock price moving based simply on a supply/demand imbalance rather than news developments.

     

    Hopefully, very soon we get to see what a lack of supply looks like.

     

    Remove the three large holders that dumped 25M shares regardless of what news came and ask yourself where the stock price would be right now with BMW, GM, NS and the grid knocking on the door.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    That has been our pattern - no good news goes unpunished,
    22 Apr 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that we moved from a low of .25 up to .60's on just the sale of the gov't zero energy building. There was a lot of hype leading up to the financing ... that moved the stock up.

     

    There is a difference in a "relationship/testing" vs. "a sale". Sales are what will be the catalyst now, as BMW & NS testing is all old news. IMO, barring a new sale sooner, I look for the 3rd & 4th quarter to be interesting and 2013 to be a good year price wise. The home PC unit will be on the market in Sept. so we should see some sales begin there & probably an order from NS sometime this year...could be tomorrow, could be December. We won't know until it is a done deal...then it will be too late to buy that news.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I'll go with your slow grind up to .44-.46 beginning sometime this week. I suppose this statement dooms the stock.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Trying to up my share holdings in the company another 18%. A bit difficult to do last week. Trying again this week.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Jak,

     

    Your insights are getting pretty darn good. Please wait until I'm done dollar cost averaging my big position. =)

     

    I don't like competition for the few remaining cheap shares.
    23 Apr 2012, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    I want to follow up on concentrator 89 with the conversation that JP, Jakurtz and Mr Investor had :

     

    IMO, it is important that new investors understand that Both are right.
    It will take a catalyst to move the stock higher, that is Mr Investor's theory of "news, sales, market news" etc. The catalyst for AXPW will be a sale.
    JP is right in that if you read Jakurtz post above, the stock sold off on all the news that should have moved it higher..This is where JP comes in, we had 25 million shares being dumped by two shareholders / heavy selling into any news that sent the price down to .25. When Spec. Sits was out, the stock rallied to the .60's on just one sale and much publicity out of TG. We have 1.7 million more shares to go out of Quercus and so far they have been orderly and will probably continue down this same path to be out by year end or earlier, then JP's inflection point stands on its' own. There will be flippers & traders who bought cheap and take profits but the most of the shares are now in stronger hands who are holding for much higher prices. The stock will then trade on the news as one would expect any stock to respond to positive/negative news.
    This is already April, so IF TG is correct in 300% revenue increase this year, and break even finances in 2013, then we see things begin to happen in the last half of 2012 or before, with a more steady stream in 2013.
    As HTL says, this is just my opinion and what I expect based on all the data here and from the company.
    22 Apr 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    One point I was making was that, left out of the forensic discussion was the abscence of large purchases by large investors, to offset or more than offset the large sales by large investors. Various posts here keep mentioning the stock supply side only. Of course that's important--I am absolutely in agreement on that obvious factor (I have been an institutional portfolio manager of special-situation investing, where I often WAS the mkt). But the demand side is at least as important, which is equally obvious, at least to me. Here's an example of that point: say, there are mkt orders placed for every one of company X's 85 million shares. But, BUT, equally suddenly, buyers place mkt orders for 150 million shares. What do you think happens to the share price? In a nutshell, supply is always finite but demand can be infinite.

     

    So, why didn't large investors make large purchases, especially as the price dropped a lot while some good news was announced from time to time? Why was the 35 cent placement done at only 35 cents? My guess is that the news, while good, was not good enough to overcome whatever resistance potential large investors had. Perhaps the delays in getting the PbC to mkt overshadowed the good news. Perhaps the news had to be almost spectacularly good to overcome the increasingly bad news that was coming out of the battery/green sector. I've experienced problem-avoidance at the Investment Committee level myself. And some funds no doubt were done investing by late last year.

     

    Anyway, and most importantly, what is the situation now? IMO it's setting up very nicely for a big move up. Stock supply side--way, way lower than it was, at least until the next placement or until another large holder bails or the price rises so much that a lot of folks take profits. Stock demand side--also weak, but will jump a lot with any or all of the following: the right kind of news, a large investor moving in or adding, regrowth of the Axionistas (seems a bit tapped out at the moment), increasing momentum if the stock keeps drifting up (the buying begets buying effect), or as prospective buyers get more confident that the big selling is over. Add reasons I've skipped here: _______________, ________________, etc.
    23 Apr 2012, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The most fabulous part of the buy side over the last couple years was its diversity. We didn't have shares flow from the hands of one institution to another. They flowed from a couple of big holders to thousands of small ones. Big holders are inherently unpredictable and therefore dangerous because a simple management change can spell months of torment. When you get to thousands of individuals, their buy, hold and sell decisions are based on their individual requirements and nobody has enough weight to push the market around one way or the other.

     

    If you've worked in institutional finance, then you know that most institutions have iron-clad policies that preclude investing in micro-caps. The only exceptions I'm aware of are institutions that have some flexibility to buy into the equivalent of private equity deals like Axion's 2009 offering which was technically classified as a "venture investment in public equity" or VIPE. Therefore, for reasons that don't have anything to do with business fundamentals Axion faced a situation where existing institutions could sell but new institutions could not buy. Instead it had to do it the hard way and wait for retail to absorb the slop. That slop has now been absorbed.

     

    While Quercus was a large holder at this time last year, it's sold enough stock that it's approaching speed bump status. Special Sits and the estate are gone. The only two *large holders* that exist are Blackrock and Manatuck Hill. Unless they both decide to sell en masse at the same time there are no other large holders who can put significant pressure on the market because everything else has been distributed to retail.

     

    If you think back to early February, the Axionistas got pissed about the pricing of the offering. They didn't bail out en masse but they did climb back up on the fence as watchers and revert to bottom feeder form. January volume was 12 million shares, February was 9.1 million, March was 4 million, April is on track for 4.8 million. I think the worst of the fence sitting has passed as news of good 2011 performance sinks in and expectations begin to improve for 2012.

     

    A couple weeks ago 10-day volume ran up to the 200-day average and couldn't quite penetrate. It's back down to the bottom of the volume range and should rebound before the Q1 conference call. In the absence of bad news, an increase in volume should lead to another spike above the 200-day average and I never forget the old adage that price follows volume.

     

    Since April 4th, the 10-day volume has collapsed from 320,000 shares to 173,000 shares but the price has stayed steady as a rock in the upper range of the bollinger bands. Typically sharp volume declines are accompanied by price declines and we're not seeing any downward drift.
    23 Apr 2012, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully this perspective adds a little something in addition to what JP wrote...

     

    Investor wrote: "So, why didn't large investors make large purchases, especially as the price dropped a lot while some good news was announced from time to time? Why was the 35 cent placement done at only 35 cents? My guess is that the news, while good, was not good enough to overcome whatever resistance potential large investors had."

     

    The misconception is that the news was not good enough to bring in large investors, but then you have to ask why did we have the large investors in the first place, when the news was less than what it is now? The 2009 placement was impressive because it brought four large institutions to buy 8M shares in a security on the OTC that only traded a total (bought and sold) of 22M shares the entire year. Additionally, this was done during a massive recession...while it was at a 50% discount to market the *news* they had must have still been very impressive because they could not have dreamed of ever having enough liquidity in this security to get out of it.

     

    Shortly after, one of the large investors, which was an estate, sold because the husband/father died in a car accident. I think it was probably right to sell the ~$4M investment and get the money back to the family.

     

    Quercus began selling because as Gelbaum writes, "I wiped out my family's liquidity." After the financial crisis and his investments in Green Tech failed.

     

    Those two I believe would have sold no matter what, news, no news, hell or high-water they were getting as much cash out as possible and rightly so for their circumstances.

     

    The tragedy over the past year is that Special Sits began selling heavily, elbowing Quercus at the pay window when the stock doubled. They had switched managers, the new manager saw an opportunity to exit out of a micro-cap they could have never dreamed would have had enough liquidity to exit from when they bought. The effects of those two selling at the same time were disastrous to the stock creating the low offering this year at .35.

     

    Why didn't large institutions come in to the rescue? I am sure that you and JP know more about what institutions are willing to invest in on the open-market but I can only speculate that opening a 4M-8M share position in the open-market on a micro-cap OTC stock with limited liquidity is not looked upon with great enthusiasm, no matter what the technology or the news. Especially in the economic environment we have been in over the past couple years. They would probably do a placement in a discount to market offering but not on the open-market.

     

    These circumstances where one thing led to another and have dogged Axion for the past three years have been disastrous on every level. When the stock price falls and money is at stake, good news is quickly forgotten, rational thinking is thrown out the window and it is all replaced with conspiracy theory and doubt. This leads to more resistance against the stock and even questioning the reputation of the company asking, "Why are they selling? What do these large sellers know that I don't?" etc. It has caused trolls to come out not only against Axion but Petersen as well because he writes about them and "must be up to something nefarious."

     

    However, when the facts are carefully examined by diligent individual investors that are willing to do their own thorough investigations, not just take someones word for it, the truth does come out.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Many Funds can not invest in companies on the OTC or that sell less than $5 per share. This leaves out most Mutual Funds. Financing and a price over $5 is critical for financing.

     

    Venture capital wants to own a large % of the company for their money.... including board seats. This was not in our interest or the founders...it is what TG meant with his statement that AXPW had many finance offers but none were in the companies best interest and had bad/erroneous terms associated with it. So he went to previous contacts that had backed him before.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    The impossibility for any large investors to get into the stock while a few large holders were getting out is too extreme for me to believe. There was and is a huge amount of high-risk capital looking for a home. And the variety of large investor types has probably been at an all-time high: wealthy individuals/families, regular funds, special situation funds, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, index funds, ETFs, pensions, estates, investment clubs, and on and on. Not saying they all have the ability to invest in AXPW, of course, just that I gotta think that at least a few could. Attractive pricing attracts attention, I've found. Aka, 'where there's a will there's a way.'

     

    And who bought the 35 cent offering? Maybe a few of the very same large investor entities I'm talking about, I would think, as well as some or many small ones. The news was not good enough for them at 60 cents, but it was at 35.

     

    Apologies, but I think I'm all written out on this subject. Thanks everyone for their comments!
    23 Apr 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I hear you, sorry if I appear to be beating a dead horse but whose to say some of those investing type houses have not bought? As you said a lot of high-net worth individuals and institutions just bought 26M shares for not much less than what we are all getting to buy now and for more than what we got to buy for in dec. So attractive pricing has attracted attention just as you say it should.

     

    The point is that was all made possible at these low prices because of the supply issue not a news issue. It just takes time for the stock to repair itself after all the history I mentioned and find a fair value in the market and new/better news is not necessarily a precondition to that. imo.

     

    I will retire from this subject now.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    jk,

     

    They very well may have bought, just not enough before the 35 cent deal to keep the price from collapsing.

     

    A big reason why I especially like to invest in these off-the-radar companies is because the mkt over here is so inefficient. The more the better. The result has been a company that is poised to do great things, while the stk price has gone the other direction. What an awesome combination that is for a new holder like me, no?
    23 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    I think Quercus is good for the stock at the moment providing both liquidity and good entry point prices for new investors. They aren't flooding the market at any price.
    22 Apr 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone attending the Electricity Storage Association Meeting in Washington May 2-4?

     

    I'm not able to attend, but would sure like to hear from anyone who is.

     

    Thanks
    23 Apr 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Dang. Would've loved for Axion to participate in this meet:

     

    http://bit.ly/Ifye6C

     

    ####

     

    One heck of a wintry storm blasting through these parts.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    If you click the link at the top left of the link Maya provided you can actually read the white paper presented to Secretary Chuu.

     

    It basically says the grid needs battery storage on the local level and battery owners need to be paid for their contribution to grid storage.

     

    I realize that this group wants to incorporate the li-on batteries in their pretend fleet of EVs, to the grid.

     

    But what they are describing is the Axion PowerCube.
    23 Apr 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    thats my take too. AXPW needs to be really aggressive and pro-active in this arena. They do not need to "wait & test"...this is where they can shine.
    23 Apr 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    The entire premise of the white paper is to lay out a course of action for the Grid. No one knows where it will end up but someone needs to take the lead in setting the National Goal.

     

    If the Government does respond affirmatively then we will have years of testing prior to massive acceptance. But large scale utility testing to a company the size of Axion is like GE building an entirely new grid.

     

    I do like the fact the Sandia is well aware of Axion. They are quoted as the definitive source in the white paper. GM, one of the delegation members to Secretary Chu, is also well aware of Axion.
    23 Apr 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >LT, Futurist & Others ... In the grid storage space, Lithium (barring something extraordinary) is priced out for the next 5-10 years. That leaves the primary competition to the advantages Axion's PC has on performance to the Major's carbon paste additive AGM on price. The question I need a better answer to is how would these CP-AGM's perform on grid charge/discharge in similar service to the PowerCube because they will beat the PbC on price. So it boils down to a PowerCube will command a higher price in grid service & perform better for peaking demand for a business ... but how much better? I don't know. Does anyone here have a guess?
    23 Apr 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The economics will all boil down to cycling frequency and depth of discharge. Everything I've seen shows a 4x to 5x cycle-life improvement with the PbC, which should give it the lowest TCO per cycle. At least that's been my working theory for a very long time.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... For the applications that interest me, I couldn't agree with you more because they go in with these advantages as a high priority. When it comes to grid storage, I'm not as sure. We both know that when it comes to Capex getting the job done at the cheapest installation cost for an acceptable length time often is a higher priority than evaluating the TCO & maintenance to end-of-life because these often come from separate budget allocations within corporations. I've seen the best solution passed over many times (often to the detriment of the business) because of this.

     

    I've not seen much in the way of hard data beyond the Sandia report on prototypes that leads me to be able to conclude what the competition looks like. In software controlled shallow discharge, where will the cost/benefit lines intersect? The new CP-AGMs can take deeper discharge over more cycles (how many/how deep?) than standard LA and provide sustained current draw than a PbC for longer duration. Is that enough to be more/less competitive on one side of the meter than the other when the payback price of grid sales is factored in? Does the most economical scenario for large installations of storage beg for a mixed battery solution?

     

    Just things I'm thinking about and I have no answers.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Our big focus when it came to grid applications was a maintenance free 10-year service life because even that's a stretch for utilities that like to think in terms of 40-year service lives. I don't know whether or how much the market view has softened in the last couple years but the maintenance free service life was a real hot button a few years ago.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I'm sure that is still true. Most utilities figure installations are basically good for 30 years going in, with upgrade/expansion extending service life to 50 years. Or at least that is the old & existing paradigm. With technologies changing at increased rates I no longer know if that is still a standard.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    I remember the CEO of Beacon, Bill Capp, stating one utility wanted 20 years of data before entertaining the idea of buying flywheels. This doesn't surprise me.....
    23 Apr 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    This "20 years of data" just goes to show how these guys & big corporations hate change.
    I mean gimme a break: A flywheel made of metal to turn a generator they already use? and they need 20 YEARS?

     

    That is sorta like saying "unless forced, I am not spending any money for 20 years" no matter what the tech.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    PbC: King in a String. These installations will most certainly operate in the 280-750 VDC range. This means the CP-AGM batteries will be connected in series. No other AGM battery can compare with the PbC in this configuration. I am looking forward to seeing this data in the Sandia report. Also, I suspect the PbC is a drop in replacement for this application...
    23 Apr 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I was at a conference last spring where a guy from McKinsey quipped that "the only two numbers you needed to understand the utility industry were 42 and 62."

     

    He explained that the average age of US utility infrastructure was 42 years, even though it had a design useful life expectancy of 40 years.

     

    He then explained that the average age of utility CEOs was 62, which makes them a bit more conservative and resistant to change than the general population.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    I know Beacon's lastest generation of Carbon Fiber flywheels were rated to last at least 20 years. At their frequency regulation plant, they had 2 fail and explode (basically turning into dust) after a couple of months of service.

     

    Beacon attributed this to the early production run that had a quality control problem that was overlooked. The flywheels became imbalanced when spinning at higher/max rpms. That production run /set of flywheels now runs at a sub-optimal or lowered speed to prevent a repeat.

     

    Maybe there was some merit in the utilities wisdom.

     

    In any case, since Beacon went bankrupt and has been taken private, we have no more data if any flywheels failed. While I am glad that tech. lives on, from an investment standpoint, it was a bust.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It will be fun to see if Beacon can solve the technical issues and emerge from private equity.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    The full NAATBatt report is at http://bit.ly/JAox6t.

     

    There appear to be a few typos mixing kW and kWhrs. Regardless, their "low" forecast for batteries to stabilize the grid, with 10% penetration, is 4-5 gWhr of storage (< 1 hr) , and the storage needed for grid backup is 150 gWhr (~ 10 hours). They additionally include EV batteries, which I am ignoring.

     

    As Futurist said, they are really talking about PowerCubes and Mini-cubes units, although the text talks about Li, not Pb. The huge problem, if I have calculated correctly, is that there is no possible way to scale.

     

    My rough calculation (corrections welcome) show 4 gWhr of storage will require about 170 million tonnes Pb. New mine production of Pb is about 4.1 million tons (http://bit.ly/JlBqPV). Assuming current (old) Pb batteries will be recycled into new (conventional) Pb batteries for autos, only new mine production is relevant. In other words, lead mining has to increase by a factor of 40. Even if I am wrong by 50%, mining has to increase 20-fold. Even worse, total world reserve base (1999) is only 130 million tons (http://on.doi.gov/JlBqPX)

     

    This is just the "low" NAATBat estimate for stabilization, 4-5 gWhr. Multiply by 40 to "grid backup", and double again for "high" penetration (20%).

     

    Uhh, I don't think it is going to happen. Don't these people have a calculator? [Or have I bloopered?] BTW, I assumed 40% less lead in these calcs since PbC would be the technology of choice. :)
    23 Apr 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think your lead calculation is off a by a couple orders of magnitude. Four billion watt hours of storage at 35 wh/kg will require 114 million kg of lead, or 114,285 metric tons.
    23 Apr 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    LT, utilities are among the most lethargic companies out there. However, in Beacon's case (RIP, I had their stock) their flywheel technology was totally different from the utilities knowledge base.

     

    Utility generators are typically at ambient pressure, horizontal, with rotation in hundreds to single-digit thousands RPM.

     

    Beacon's flywheels were vertical, in a vacuum, rotating at 16,000 rpm.
    23 Apr 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Rick, do your back-of-napkin calcs allow for the ~1/3 reduction (by weight) of Pb used in the PbC?

     

    I'm sure it would make any real difference, but recycled+new consumption extended over a longer time might allow available Pb to catch up sooner or later?

     

    Also, I think there has to be other storage brought into play because, as JP has stated so often, there''s no one-solution fix.

     

    Anyway, my expertise is zippo, so these types of (possibly silly) questions cross my mind quite easily without benefit of a strong knowledge filter.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, JP, for the math correction; I multiplied instead of dividing. I wish could delete my post.

     

    Is 35 wh/kg a good number for PbC specifically, or a typical number for LA batteries in general?
    23 Apr 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The Rosewater PbC fact sheet puts the PbC at 70 Amp hours with 73 pounds of weight (33 kg). At 12-volts that works out to 25 wh/kg.

     

    The reason for the lower specific energy is the PbC takes out half the chemically active lead but uses the same amount of lead for top casting and connections.
    23 Apr 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of Beacon Power, my remaining 5 shares of BCON are up 66.67% today! Hilarious. I'm up four cents on the day. But down overall, 97.92 %!
    23 Apr 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    Haha, how did you wind up with only 5 shares, Mayascribe?
    23 Apr 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Excellent point Tim, could well in time prove out to be one of PbC's truly key distinguishing features--the one that eventually begins to open the big checkbooks en masse...
    23 Apr 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    I always was intrigued by Beacon's flywheel design, and was in and out of Beacon several times. In order to better keep track, I kept 5 shares on the board at all times. When Beacon went belly up, it cost more to sell the five shares than to keep 'em. So I kept 'em.
    24 Apr 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1104) | Send Message
     
    FWIW Rosewater PbC fact sheet http://bit.ly/vbHfBB
    puts the PbC at 500 Watt hours with 73 pounds of weight (33 kg). At 500Wh per 33kg hybrid battery capacitor, that works out to be 15 Wh/kg.

     

    John, If as a former director of AxionPower you made error calculating such a simple metric due to the units capacitor's discharge profile, (your calc's would've been correct for a battery). Just how difficult is it for potential users to design for this when Axion doesn't release or update the parameters of their batteries?

     

    The PbC discharge slope is due to its capacitor nature, a Powercube with its expensive electronics to provide AC output should be able to handle PbC discharge slope quite well, similarly for rail traction motor application, the discharge curve should not be too onerous, but for automotive applications expecting a 10 volt level at End Of Discharge Cycle restart, the PbC discharge profile is very unsuitable.

     

    Using the old Ceraweek papers as a rough guide, the PbC is about 3x less useful for applications that require voltage to maintained, than for applications that do. http://bit.ly/IR1imQ
    25 Apr 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    With due respect Renim you're full of $hit. I pulled the Ah capacity did a quick mental calculation and made a mistake. I guess that proves I'm human.

     

    Potential users of the PbC don't include clowns like you who want to separate battery performance characteristics from application requirements. Potential users assemble a set of specific performance attributes and pick a battery that matches their needs. Potential users have full access to all relevant data and Axion's technical staff to boot.

     

    The PbC's discharge slope looks dramatic if you insist on working with a 100% DOD range. When you look at the relevant SOC range for a given application, it doesn't matter at all. You love to pull arbitrary numbers off old performance graphs for a 12-volt device and claim that it presents an insurmountable problem for automotive when all of Axion's statements talk about using a 16-volt configuration that operates at an 80% SOC and maintains perfectly compatible voltage throughout the RELEVANT discharge range.

     

    Automotive applications in general and stop-start in particular cycle within a very narrow depth of discharge range. The BMW-Ford stop-start protocol, for example, specifies a 39,600 watt-second energy drain during an engine off event. A 500 watt-hour battery has 1.8 million watt-seconds of stored energy, so the engine off cycle load represents 2.2% of total capacity. That means all your crap about the 100% DOD curve is meaningless to a user that plans to cycle up and down 2% from an 80% SOC.

     

    Your criticisms are intentionally dishonest and I find them boring.

     

    In the final analysis the only opinion that matters is the opinion of the end users. If BMW thought the voltage profile of the PbC was a problem for their stop-start systems, they wouldn't continue a testing program that's already cost them millions of dollars. Disqualification of a product is something that comes very easy to end users and occurs very early in the process. A battery that fails the user performance requirements doesn't get tested for three years and it certainly never graduates to vehicles.

     

    The PbC has endured everything BMW and the other automakers could throw at it over the course of three years. It's still standing tall and meeting or beating user expectations. The probability that it will fail at this late stage in the game is very remote.
    25 Apr 2012, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1104) | Send Message
     
    John a PbC 500 Watt hours with 73 pounds of weight (33 kg) works out to be 15 Wh/kg. http://bit.ly/vbHfBB
    This approx. correlates to a voltage starting at 12V and declining down to around 3volts. (12v+3v)/2 x 70Ah = 525Wh
    very roughly this duty correlates to the mid level of http://bit.ly/IR1imQ

     

    A design expecting a normal battery may be reflective of the 9 volt cutoff, in which case only 20% of the PbC's capacity is available, so now the PbC is costing at 20% x 15 Wh/kg ie its at 3 Wh/kg economics (but with better cycle life)

     

    Away from energy and back to automotive applications, I suggest this as a primer on automotive stop-start batteries, http://bit.ly/IpuJ10
    In summary, Pb batteries have improved to the extent that Active material softening (positive plate) is now as important as sulfation (negative plate) for idling stop batteries under the automotive SBA A 0101 test. http://bit.ly/I9osFP

     

    John, a quick look at http://bit.ly/IpuL8W GS-Yuasa might provide some links of interest.
    25 Apr 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Once again you're looking at two year old materials on a 12 Volt battery from Granville's 2010 CERA Week deck and drawing conclusions that are relevant to a second generation device in a 16 Volt configuration. When you increase the voltage of the battery by dividing the case into eight cells instead of six, all the low voltage issues your fertile imagination keeps trying to create disappear.

     

    When you have a 500 wh battery that will operate at 80% SOC for at least five years under the most demanding service conditions and provide plenty of energy within the relevant state-of-charge range nothing else matters.

     

    The economics of a starter battery aren't based on the entire capacity of the battery, they're based on the one or two percent of capacity the car is designed to use. Your arguments are sophistry. The automakers will either pay a modest premium to put a PbC in their vehicles, or they'll suffer the reputation damage and warranty claims that will inevitably arise from using something cheaper.

     

    The first Yausa link deals with positive electrode problems in flooded lead-acid batteries. While companies like Yausa have only noticed these issues recently, Axion has been dealing with positive electrode issues since 2005 because the first thing an immortal negative electrode shows you is the weaknesses in your positive electrode. So what you're identifying as a problem is just one more area where Axion is seven years ahead of the curve.
    25 Apr 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    Renim, I think you are missing something.

     

    Clearly PbC is not a drop-in replacement for a standard Pb battery because of the voltage drop. I am not aware of anybody claiming that it is a drop-in replacement. A single PbC for a traditional auto application is a fail.

     

    If we take RoseWater's specs http://bit.ly/vbHfBB at 500 whr per 33 kg battery at a C/1 rate, the result is 15 w/kg. Using the information for the BSA12V400F battery at http://bit.ly/vbHfBB for a C/20 rate, which is a more common discharge metric, indicates about 700 whr, or about 21 w/kg.

     

    Key to effectively using PbC is being able to use the low voltage energy. Assuming a four battery bank 12v nominal, typical of large trucks, could be wired as 4 in parallel, then 2 banks of 2 in series, then 4 in series, with automatic switching at the battery terminals, and some voltage regulation. It just takes a little creativity. Larger storage, such as off-grid, mini-cube, and PowerCube, could have even more batteries in series.

     

    Bottom line, each application needs to have the right engineering applied to specify the battery. The above examples used 12 volt numbers, as the 8-cell 16 v batteries seem to have very limited information publicly available. One link is http://bit.ly/K6kBrD, which I found from a link on Axionpower itself.
    25 Apr 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Well, someone has an interest - 62K @ $0.4255 (~mid-point of bid/ask) at 09:47:25.

     

    Because of the time and price and size I *suspect* this might have been a broker-broker block trade, but we'll never know.

     

    Anyway, good to see it.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Disgusting - the asks keep stepping down. I don't like the way this looks ATM.

     

    Currently $0.42x10K presented bid and $0.4249x10K ask.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    FTM, any bid >= 42 cents gets hit quickly. The recent approx 26k total there only lasted 8 minutes. Although that is 480 seconds, lol.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    Only took a couple hundred thousand shares traded to knock AUTO off the best bid for about four minutes. Man, they've had a lot of shares to sell over the last month or two.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power Host,

     

    Don't forget to link the stock to your posts. The last five instablogs aren't showing up on the list of instablogs about Axion when one pulls up a quote on Axion: http://bit.ly/JrkDyO
    23 Apr 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    http://tinyurl.com/c2w...
    "A third system shipped to another high-tech U.S. based company for testing and demonstration included:

     

    ZBB EnerSection
    ZBB EnerStore
    One battery bucket for connecting a non-ZBB battery module to the ZBB EnerSection
    One PV bucket
    GID"

     

    Pure speculation, but would be delighted to learn that "non-ZBB battery module to the ZBB EnerSection" was populated with PbCs.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    In light of your comment, D-inv, yesterday, I found an older article discussing energy storage with respect to CERTS microgrids - the open architecture that ZBB uses with its power electronics in setting up microgrids.

     

    Seemingly, while energy batteries may be used for various economic applications - they are not required, whereas its seems power batteries, on the other hand, are necessary for a microgrid to function correctly.

     

    I found it interesting that at the time the report was written they found VRLA lead acid batteries from MK Batteries to be the best. However, given the PSOC cycling requirements the Pbc may actually be a much better fit ...

     

    I am not sure how the thermal problems would affect a PBc battery string ... any thoughts?

     

    certs.lbl.gov/pdf/micr...
    23 Apr 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I don't have a clue whether thermal behavior of PbC battery strings differs from that of individual PbC batteries. It is my understanding that individual PbC batteries have better (wider) thermal performance range than LA or VRLA and better than Li-ion.
    23 Apr 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Hi Drich

     

    Here is the title of an interesting cost sensitivity analysis on Grid Storage solutions:
    Long vs. short-term energy storage sensitivity analysis

     

    If you Google it, you can get the .PDF.

     

    It's dated 2007, so there might be an update... I often search on the authors of reports like this to find updates.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The most interesting aspect of that particular presentation is that it includes a detailed discussion of the 2007 outlook for the "asymmetric lead-carbon capacitor" that we all know as the PbC. When you look at the things that needed to be accomplished or proven in 2007 and compare them with the things that have been accomplished and proven in 2012, you get a pretty good feel for how far things have come.
    23 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Link for the pdf:

     

    http://bit.ly/JpSR6L

     

    Related recent paper from the first author:

     

    http://bit.ly/uW0Icz
    23 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for doing the leg work Dr. Maturin.

     

    As John says, look at the progress!

     

    Two of the key issues identified in that first report concerned number of cycles, and $kWh. For example, the first report said:

     

    "It is not known whether any of the existing cells of this type of asymmetric capacitor have achieved 5000 cycles. It is important to explore this issue early in the next stage of research".

     

    They also listed the $kWh in 2007 as 625 and said they were looking for the costs to half to 313 which would make the asymmetric lead acid capacitor batteries more cost effective.

     

    Looking at the second report by the same author (Table 4), the costs and number of cycles appears to now be listed at between 330 to 440 $KWh with a four fold improvement to 20,000 cycles.

     

    That is substantial progress. On top of this, Table 5 shows that the lead acid asymmetric capacitor currently owns the Present Worth Cost of 10-year Operation for Short-duration storage, frequent and infrequent discharges categories on the basis of significantly lower costs.

     

    That news needs to be more widely spread.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    FPA,

     

    "On top of this, Table 5 shows that the lead acid asymmetric capacitor currently owns the Present Worth Cost of 10-year Operation for Short-duration storage, frequent and infrequent discharges categories on the basis of significantly lower costs.

     

    That news needs to be more widely spread."

     

    Gotta think Vani's all over that.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of storage:

     

    “Storage can shift solar energy to periods of peak demand,” Taylor added, as well as providing “firm capacity and ancillary services” and reducing “renewables integration challenges.”

     

    In Taylor’s equation, this translates into a higher “capacity value” and results in a higher value to utilities."

     

    http://bit.ly/IjnUdT

     

    This article also compares storage mediums (including lead-acid) on round-trip efficiency and charge-discharge cycles.
    23 Apr 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    I thought this was important:
    "A new equation for calculating the value of energy to the utility:

     

    Energy Value + Capacity Value - Integration Cost = Utility Value"

     

    Source: Andy Taylor, E3
    23 Apr 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    No mention of the PbC technological superiority over conventional LA with respect to life cycles:

     

    "Solar power plant thermal energy storage (TES) is already more reliable than batteries, which remain vulnerable to heating inefficiencies and overheating malfunctions. Lead acid batteries are capable, Raade said, of 2,000 charge-discharge cycles. Sodium sulfur batteries can get 4,500 cycles or about eleven years of on-and-off service. Electric vehicle makers expect today’s lithium-ion battery packs to serve seven to ten years. TES, Raade said, can be counted on for 11,000 cycles, which translates to 30 years of after-sun service."

     

    The article was focused on making thermal storage appear better than sliced bread.

     

    Thermal storage still requires a huge solar collector farm, and has zero portability, so comparing it to batteries seems a bit of a straw man argument to me. Better would be to compare it to other large scale stationary storage systems, such as compressed air or pumped hydro.
    24 Apr 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    The article says that 11,000 cycles translates to 30 years of storage (for Concentrated Solar Power)
    Could the PbC manage 11,000 cycles? (say for PV storage, since PV is cheaper and has much greater penetration than CSP)
    24 Apr 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, SMaturin. I am all for CSP but I know that many CSP project plans are being converted to PV farms--thus the need for storage remains.
    Enter the PbC--cheaper than Lithium-ion.
    24 Apr 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Could someone fill me in on the round-trip efficiency of PbC?

     

    ("According to Raade, flow batteries come in at around 75 percent, pumped hydro at 82 percent and lead acid batteries at 87 percent.")
    24 Apr 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The Data-sheet on the Rosewater website talks about roundtrip energy efficiencies in the 90% to 95% range, which seems a little high to me but I also suspect their access to data is far better than mine.

     

    http://bit.ly/vbHfBB
    24 Apr 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Just encountered NEW comments on APC-90 that were not flagged as such. Since I am using a Windows XP, sp3 operating system, the new comment flag issue is clearly not limited to Macs.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    This is just a continuation of the unresolved bug I reported 1/11.

     

    They've never made an attempt to resolve it AFAIK.

     

    Maybe if enough folks e-mailed support@seekingalpha.com complaining that "New Comment" is not appearing on all new comments in articles and instablogs it would finally get fixed.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    True, I have Win7 and JPs articles come up as notifications with no flags on comments and the wrong amount of comments (way too few on the NS article).
    23 Apr 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Volume up early today... 152,000 traded as of now.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Including the $0.4201 2,950 trade at 12:15, buy:sell is 1.26:1. Unfortunately, the ratio has achieved this only with the step-down of the prices while we trade the narrow band between $0.42/$0.43.

     

    Very good *presented* (four MMs showing standard 5K each) support currently exists at $0.41 though so today, at least, we shouldn't see below that unless some unknown larger holder decides the heck with it.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone of the opinion that the .42 floor is the minimum the flippers want to sell for? I also wonder if HTL's analysis that .42 was a good an entry point as any has brought in retail buyers at .42?

     

    If TG's expectations come to pass for 2012 and 2013 buying at .42 is a steal. Based on what I'm seeing today this stock wants to break to the upside.
    23 Apr 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    Bang, volume is "The Truth Teller". The big volume, about 1/3 of volume so far, happened in 1 minute at 09:47 this A.M. with trades in the $0.4202-$0.4205 price range.

     

    Then pps stepped down and back up, but through the following 3:40 time-frame only the other 2/3rds traded and trading has now done its usual - come to a grinding halt for a while (last trade at 12:50:23 - about 40 minutes ago).

     

    Typical for this stock, I guess.

     

    But, IMHO, not strongly indicative of "wanting to move up" ... yet anyway. Little pockets of seemingly frenetic activity in a long consolidation period on an illiquid stock (temporarily?) doesn't seem odd to me.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Have to agree with you HTL. Seeing the large buys at 9:47 not shoving the stock down into the .41's and .40's however tells me there is pretty solid support at current prices. Better strong support at current prices and volume than a steady price decline. I suppose my thinking is "if it doesn't want to go down it must want to go up." Totally scientific reasoning eh? We need a supply and demand inflection point to come into play. That's going to require a catalyst as you correctly pointed out.
    23 Apr 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1171) | Send Message
     
    need volume. without it technicals are getting less predictive. especially on the short end (trying to guess weekly/daily proce movement).
    23 Apr 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Honda begins production of it's new gas-electric hybrid car in Indiana

     

    http://cjky.it/IhFw9Z
    23 Apr 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    PJM CC Tomorrow. Registration is still closed. Details below:

     

    http://bit.ly/IjSIP8?ID={23C9A8CD-A287-44E...
    23 Apr 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    From Paris, yesterday: Fantastic article about US's future energy, as well as other countries, stuffed with current facts and projections, including this quasi-surprise:

     

    "It also means, in the words of the U.S. Department of Energy's latest Annual Energy Outlook, that: "The energy intensity of the U.S. economy , measured by primary energy use per dollar of gross domestic product, declines by 42 percent from 2010 to 2035."

     

    Read more here:

     

    http://bit.ly/I65Gm9

     

    (Never say never, but after reading this article, it's highly unlikely I will ever again buy a coal miner, or a coal-based utility, not that I could afford to, anyway ;-)
    23 Apr 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    If said long ago I am not an engineer. So now I can embarrass myself with the dumb question of the day. How good a combination would an appropriately sized Maxell supercapacitor and a PbC work for SS? Of course, cost becomes an issue right away. I was wondering about the Maxell supercapacitor for engine start and the PbC for hotel loads. A cheap flooded battery would work just as well combined with a PbC, but life wise the Maxwell/PbC combination (if it would work at all) might have a very long life in combination.
    23 Apr 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    If the Maxwell/PbC pair is isolated with the engine off and combined with the engine on then the combination would be efficient use of the technology and likely last a very long time. If you substitute the $60 CAP-XX for the Maxwell then it becomes very economical.

     

    If they are not isolated with the engine off then you are better off with 2 parallel PbC's. You end up with the same features of a SC + AGM but with more longevity on the AGM side and greater capacity on the SC side.

     

    The importance of design difference of isolated or combined when the engine is off has to do with the best product for the purpose. If isolated, the SC is the perfect tool for a restart (leakage aside) and the PbC is the perfect tool for the hotel loads. If combined then you have a single product that must serve two purposes; start and hotel. In my opinion, the PbC is very capable of fulfilling this role. However, if combined, Maxwell + PbC would be overkill on the SC side of things.

     

    The Axion White Paper shows an isolated with engine off configuration with a LA battery for starting and PbC for Hotel loads. The LC Super Hybrid has a combined configuration with 2 parallel CP-AGM's. I am sure we will see many different configurations as SS rolls out...
    23 Apr 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... Two supercapacitors would not be necessary. A PbC with a carbon paste AGM would be a far better system from a cost/performance standpoint. I'll not bore you with the why.
    23 Apr 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Actually a big PbC with a small flooded battery that's dedicated to starter loads will do the job as well, and cheaper to boot.
    23 Apr 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    There is a small catch with the use of a standard LA battery in the starter position. If you were one of the unlucky ones with a daily commute that involved traffic that caused many stops/starts to and from work, your LA would take a beating and quite possibly never get fully charged.

     

    LA batteries take much longer than a AGM or PbC battery to charge and the case described above could end in premature failure. You could substitute a CP-AGM for the LA battery (as DRich suggests) but that would be at an additional cost.

     

    We know what the engineers that created the LC Super Hybrid did. It will be interesting to see what the others do...
    23 Apr 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Since we know the PbC will do the job without an additional battery, I doubt that it would kill the LA starter battery.
    23 Apr 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, yes but remember the LA battery is isolated from the PbC so the PbC can't be of assistance. If each start takes 10% of the capacity of the LA battery and there are 5 starts then your DOD is 50%. The AGM and PbC can take as much amperage as you can throw at them and will rapidly charge up to around the 80% mark (I think the PbC is even higher). The LA does not have this same charge acceptance and will take a much longer time to charge and may not make it to 100% charge which means you start the next day somewhere under 100%. Repeat this Mon-Fri and you could be sitting on a partial charge over the weekend. One of the worst things for an LA battery is to sit for any length of time in a partial stat of charge.

     

    Again, I mention this as a small catch for the LA configuration as I have no idea of how many commuters fit the profile described above...
    23 Apr 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    I live in a northern city and make a lot of short trips--probably average at least one a day, of less than 8 miles, in stop-and-go traffic, where I'm starting my car 2-5 times per trip. My regular battery typically only lasts 2-3 years. I'd easily pay twice as much or even more to get a battery that lasted a lot longer. Just to avoid the hassle alone, not even counting any $ savings.

     

    If this is happening to me, I'll bet it's happening to a lot of other people, too.
    23 Apr 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Mr I, if the alternator is not running long enough to fully charge your battery then the battery's life will be shortened. Now, imagine turning the engine off at stop lights and stop signs. This will shorten the charge time since the alternator does not charge with the engine off. Add the restart for each of these non-idle stops and the pain gets greater.

     

    You could change your weekend routine and take a long drive in the country to add life to you battery <smile>. Who knows, it might add some life to you too...
    23 Apr 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    How long do you think it takes to fully recharge, assuming stop and go driving? How about steady highway speeds?

     

    Spending a couple of dollars to save a few pennies--sounds like I qualify for a subsidy. 8^)
    23 Apr 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    HA! Too many variables. First start takes more energy than subsequent starts. Headlights on or off? I can tell you that your alternator will produce more power at cruising speed than idle by a factor of 2. Would you get longer life switching to AGM from LA? probably but would you see a ROI? doubtful unless you consider peace of mind.

     

    Short trips are always harder on a vehicle than longer trips but I am sure the engineers account for that the best they can. It's when you shorten the charge time and increase the number of starts by shutting the engine off and restarting it that the game changes.

     

    I seem to remember someone in this forum manually performing a start/stop test with their LA battery and they killed their battery in short order. I can't remember who that was...
    23 Apr 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    One aspect to remember always about cars and car batteries is this: When you climb in and turn the key the car needs to start. Period. Even if it's been sitting a few weeks. Another aspect to remember is that today's fancy cars have all kinds of various security, navigation, lighting, communication, entertainment, and monitoring systems that all can draw some parasitic power even when the car is off. Obviously great pains have been made, and are being made, to minimize this residual draw, but it is there. So any contemplated primary battery has got to be able to deal well with long, slow, slight current draws, for days on end, and still perform when the key is turned, both in the winter and hot summer. What we don't quite know about the PbC is what is its rate of self-discharge/leakage. We do know that the PbC's output voltage declines as some function of energy extracted. That's the nature of the beast with any capacitor. In my mind, I suspect this may be the main reason why the optimal implementation of PbC for SS is depicted as featuring a secondary SLI battery. Not for starting/restarting during the drive itself, because certainly the PbC can handle that fine, but for assured starting at the curb or in the driveway or in the parking lot after sitting parked a good while under parasitic drain. This simply can not be screwed up. Now we don't know how good Maxwell (or equivalent) supercapicitors are with self-discharge either. But we do know that established LA and AGM are pretty good. Presumably, carbon paste AGM should also be good, though I do remember one tradeoff of added carbon paste is greater self-discharge. So I guess we'll see. But by and large, as it stands today one can usually park their car, and then come back in two weeks with reasonable confidence and have it start. (old tired batteries + winter temps not quite so much) That quality cannot be compromised. For the average car it's now the standard expectation. Any and every SS implementation has to meet that standard or it is bound to be rejected.
    Just my two cents. ;)
    23 Apr 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    Tim E: "I can't remember who that was... "

     

    I think that was DRich's experiment
    23 Apr 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "Not for starting/restarting during the drive itself, because certainly the PbC can handle that fine, but for assured starting at the curb..."

     

    Now that's a new and interesting thought. A small dedicated SLI battery that is only available during a manual start event (as opposed to a start event initiated by the SS ECU). Certainly provides a safety net for leakage and phantom/standby currents and we would be foolish to rule it out.

     

    I would sure like to open the hood on the LC Super Hybrid and see if we would find another battery there...
    23 Apr 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Not necessarily. The starter load for an engine off event is 300 Amp seconds, so even if charge acceptance falls off to something in the 5 Amp range you can still recover 300 Amp seconds over the course of a minute. Moreover, the starter battery will be kept at a higher state of charge which will make the degradation slower. In a dual system, the battery that needs the ultra-high DCA is the hotel load battery that has to recover 3,000 Amp-seconds in a minute.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    A 40 Ah flooded battery has 144,000 Amp-seconds of capacity. An engine start in a car takes 300 Amp-seconds or less, so it's more like 0.2% of capacity than 10%. As long as the flooded battery doesn't need to carry any accessory loads it should last a long time.
    23 Apr 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I see a buy order of 55,000 at .415 left as the bid at the end of the day.

     

    There also seems to be a regular seller at .4299 creating a regularly annoying price, although ask at the end of the day on my screen is 5000 at .435... two minutes earlier the ask was 9950 at .4299 - Quirkus?

     

    I am a bit below the apprentice level of analyzing all this.
    23 Apr 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2801) | Send Message
     
    Trading's not my expertise, but there seems to be at least 2-3 sellers thru AUTO (often retail, I suppose, as some of the retail brokerages typically route thru them). You can tell because marking the price down by 1/100 of a penny is a mirror image of what some of us catfish do on the bid. Just barely get ahead of the next guy. Then when that ask is exhausted, there has been another right behind it, either at a slightly higher price or a renewed ask at the same price, often only moments later.

     

    IMO we've seen similar selling for the last month or two. We've speculated on who it is--flippers from the recent placement, Axionistas selling down, etc., but it's only guessing. Although it's been a lot of supply (has pushed Quercus down to a distant second), and sure doesn't feel like it's over to me, at least it's been fairly disciplined and orderly, as though it's being done by professionals or with their assistance, and it's been met with even bigger demand, with the price off the upper 30's lows.

     

    As far as the ending bid/ask, it changed quickly just after the close. AUTO was the best bid and ask and got lifted right after the close, leaving a 50k and 5k bid at 41.5 and a 43.5 ask.
    23 Apr 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18056) | Send Message
     
    The $0.415 bids were in almost all day long (FANC and PERT MMs). Below them all day long were the 4 MMs with $0.41 bid.

     

    I don't know the reason, but I've noticed often that as soon as the day ends, some bids/asks disappear.

     

    Sometimes new ones come in and I've often wondered if it's some kind of setup for the next day or someone trying to fool folks that rush home from work and look to see what's being bid and asked.

     

    I'll never know the answer, but I always try to notice behavior.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    'I don't know the reason, but I've noticed often that as soon as the day ends, some bids/asks disappear.'
    Good for the day orders?
    23 Apr 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Received an email from Mario Bottero today referencing the following new press release:

     

    April 2012
    RoseWater Energy Group joins the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association
    RoseWater Energy is excited to announce that it has joined the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA) as a member representing the storage sector. Ontario, much like many jurisdictions in the world, is increasing its renewable energy supply and is looking to smarten its grid. Storage is a key factor in enabling more renewables and a more flexible and reliable 21st century power system.
    “We’re looking forward to being a part of the Association and participating with them in creating a storage solution that will have global reach, and to bring attention to our product as an integral part of that solution. ” Stated Mario Bottero of RoseWater Energy.
    “OSEA has been an instrumental player in drafting and supporting the creation of Ontario’s Green Energy and Economy Act and its Feed-in Tariff programs.” added Joseph Piccirilli of RoseWater Energy, “RoseWater is excited to work with OSEA and its broad community of sustainable energy proponents and supporters to demonstrate how the Axion Power Cube storage solution can be a cost effective component of Ontario’s energy system.”
    "The Axion Power Cube is quite incredible and holds significant potential for grid operators, solar and wind generators and even residential users." said Kristopher Stevens of OSEA. "OSEA is excited to have the Rosewater group and its partner Axion as members and we look forward to working together to advance the role of storage in Ontario's energy system."
    23 Apr 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Actually, the full text is:

     

    April 2012
    RoseWater Energy Group joins the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association
    RoseWater Energy is excited to announce that it has joined the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA) as a member representing the storage sector. Ontario, much like many jurisdictions in the world, is increasing its renewable energy supply and is looking to smarten its grid. Storage is a key factor in enabling more renewables and a more flexible and reliable 21st century power system.
    “We’re looking forward to being a part of the Association and participating with them in creating a storage solution that will have global reach, and to bring attention to our product as an integral part of that solution. ” Stated Mario Bottero of RoseWater Energy.
    “OSEA has been an instrumental player in drafting and supporting the creation of Ontario’s Green Energy and Economy Act and its Feed-in Tariff programs.” added Joseph Piccirilli of RoseWater Energy, “RoseWater is excited to work with OSEA and its broad community of sustainable energy proponents and supporters to demonstrate how the Axion Power Cube storage solution can be a cost effective component of Ontario’s energy system.”
    "The Axion Power Cube is quite incredible and holds significant potential for grid operators, solar and wind generators and even residential users." said Kristopher Stevens of OSEA. "OSEA is excited to have the Rosewater group and its partner Axion as members and we look forward to working together to advance the role of storage in Ontario's energy system."

     

    For further information please contact:
    Mario Bottero, Rosewater Energy Solutions at 905-264-7870 x222 or visit http://bit.ly/yUPfAj.
    Kristopher Stevens, Executive Director, Ontario Sustainable Energy Association at 416-977-4441 or visit http://bit.ly/I6PH7A.

     

    About the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association
    The Ontario Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA) is a non-partisan, member-based non-profit dedicated to inspiring and enabling the people of Ontario to improve the environment, economy and their health by conserving and producing clean, renewable energy in their homes, businesses and communities. Members include individuals, manufacturers, installers, developers, municipalities, First Nations, farmers, co-operatives and other community organizations supportive of, and engaged in, sustainable energy in Ontario.
    23 Apr 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Bob Haeger
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater has really beefed up its web site. I see it's now the exclusive PbC distributor to oil rigs. http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
    23 Apr 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    I believe the Oil Drill Rig FAQ has been updated, too. Or maybe I'm just slow to notice:
    http://bit.ly/s4pkQ9

     

    I'm pleased to see that its functionally "plug and play" with "little to no maintenance" thanks to the BMS. Like some have discussed here.

     

    I put together a crude ROI spreadsheet to see how feasible the powercube is, given their stated figure of fuel savings of 11,687 gallons of fuel / month in their powerpoint.
    Presentation PPT: http://bit.ly/uB7S91

     

    Crude ROI spreadsheet showing 5-year payback: http://bit.ly/INplmE

     

    Lots of assumptions, and I'm sure I have rose-colored spectacles - but a 5-year payoff seems reasonable (since installation and maintenance costs are somewhat flexible). Would be sooner payoff if any spare gensets could be sold or if the cost of fuel rises... I'm not sure how reasonable my maintenance/installation figures are.
    24 Apr 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Since oil field gensets run on "off-road" diesel, a pricing of $3 per gallon would probably be more reasonable for the cost savings calculation. If you want to be a bit more conservative on the revenue side, you might want to plan on four weeks working followed by one week of downtime as a drill rig is moved from one well location to the next.

     

    As a containerized system for use in oil and gas drilling operations, the PowerCube is designed to be as portable as a genset with the same plug-and-play functionality. So I think the installation charge is way too high. The same goes for maintenance of $20,000 a month.
    24 Apr 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Since there is also a move to Nat Gas from diesel, the comparative pricing might have to be reduced further?

     

    But this move has been mooted for a while now, so either the failure implement implies there is a lot of momentum to overcome (by either a PC or NG), and / or they have a good reason to avoid gas, which comes out better for the PC perhaps.
    http://bit.ly/Ik986C

     

    is in the process of converting its first rig to run on power generated by liquefied natural gas (LNG). Canada’s Encana Corp’s already has 15 of its more than 40 rigs driven by gas, and plans to convert even more." (Apr 2012)

     

    http://bit.ly/Ik96vm 2011 version
    24 Apr 2012, 03:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Natural gas is tough to use as a fuel for drilling operations except in rare cases where the well-site is in close proximity to an existing gas gathering network that allows an operator to use gas from other wells in the immediate vicinity. As soon as you have to compress and transport gas, instead of taking it out of a nearby gathering system, the costs get very high very quickly.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I sent Mario at Rosewater a note this morning asking him about their planned maintenance contract terms and he indicated that they're looking at $150,000 per million for a 3-year contract or $300,000 per million for a 5-year contract.
    24 Apr 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    Tweaked installation, maintenance, fuel costs per feedback, and added $115K salvage value for spare 3rd backup genset that can be replaced with cube:
    http://bit.ly/IlkCXn

     

    I also discovered a post on the other board from Kirk Tierney in January referencing this EPA treat:

     

    "(EPA 2009) Idling reductions can also reduce longer-term costs; each hour of idling eliminated can save as much as 2 hours of engine life. Since an idling engine does not generate enough heat for proper combustion, deposits will form over time on the piston and cylinder walls and contaminate the oil. This contamination creates additional friction that will accelerate engine wear."

     

    Anyway, I'm pleased that there does appear to be a business case for oil drill rig operators to purchase PowerCubes.

     

    The other capex decision facing oil rig operators appears to be converting to nat gas, as discussed above:
    http://yhoo.it/JvvUhs

     

    That article claims a cost of $1M to $1.5M for converting a rig to nat gas with a 2-year payback, versus $1M and perhaps a 4-year payback with our powercube. That might be problematic for our Rosewater salesman to compete with, but, as you say, nat gas may not be a possibility for all rigs and the powercube is a separate measure for fuel savings that can still be marketed.
    24 Apr 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    The positive economics of changing to nat gas and using a Power