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  • Axion Power Concentrator 91: April 24, 2012: History Repeating? The Chart Pattern Before The 2011 Run And Now. 226 comments
    Apr 26, 2012 11:55 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    History Repeating or At Least Rhyming? From Jakurtz

    I don't know if it means much technically but it sure is fun to look at...Check out this little chart highlighting the similarities between the past four months and the four months leading up to the 2011 run to $1.27. If history does repeat or even rhyme you have about another week to collect your shares and climb aboard before the train whistles out of the station -- No pressure.

    updated April 24

    (click to enlarge)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated April 24)

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart on Concentrator Comments: updated April 24

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the charts.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    -----------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    This is a troll free zone. All disruptive comments and AUTHOR of such comments that violate Seeking Alpha's Terms of Use Agreement will be permanently removed and comments will be recorded in a separate Instablog.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (227)
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  • Author’s reply » Latest comment from BW...
    ----------------------...
    We should see the 1st Quarter 2012 CC announced sometime next week for mid-May. I will probably put up another CC questions instablog for organizational purposes soon.
    ----------------------...
    24 Apr 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Some great technical information on this concentrator.

     

    It does astound me how we keep trying to put a size 10 foot into a size 8 shoe, with the L-ion evangelical movement and EV's.
    The chemistry works well enough, but clearly not for this particular application.

     

    I have always had a belief that May 2012 is when things would ramp up, and looking at the trading volume recently, one would have to believe that the big sellers are fading away (hopefully) and now if we can get the news we have all been waiting for, then an upward march seems the only logical place to go !

     

    I like the fact that bloggers put their opinions out there for discussion, and wanted to do so myself, with regards to timelines and forecasting, so here goes nothing !

     

    May 15 0.72c
    June 30 $1.22
    Sept 30 $1.44
    Dec 30 $1.88

     

    2013
    March 30 $2.12
    Sept 30 $3.44

     

    Dec 2013 Somewhere North of $4.00
    24 Apr 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome Johnny, noting that your current profile (http://bit.ly/JF8CW2) states, "Jack ass investor...specialising in losing stock portfolios." What really stands out is the "s" in specialising which suggests you're not American. Its always nice to have international diversity EIITCSJAA.
    24 Apr 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • While those numbers are certainly possible, I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

     

    At least in the short term.

     

    In the longer term (3-5 years), the sky is the limit.

     

    D
    24 Apr 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Gosh rambo, you must have an MBA! Those folks always throw out amazing graphs that project amazing growth rates with a beautiful hockey stick ending!

     

    It wasn't so long ago that I took assumed long-term growth rates for a major manufacturing company (that looked really good for the 5 year planning cycle) and found that they intended to eat up the entire US GDP within 25 years.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • The DOD will be holding a summit on Renewable Energy Micro Grid May 31-June 1.

     

    The DOD's goal of deploying 3 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2025 is one of the largest commitments to clean energy in history. From the Air Force's recently announced project to install over $1B of distributed solar on bases and installations across the country, to the Army's new Energy Initiatives Task Force (EITF) program that plans to issue PPAs in 2012 for 2GW of power, the services are moving smartly ahead with their plans to spur the development and installation of renewable energy ranging from utility-scale projects to rooftop solar for base housing. New programs are quickly springing up to purchase renewable power for installations -- programs that will require tens of billions of dollars in private investment and finance.

     

    http://mwne.ws/IaknCW
    24 Apr 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • :-) Must be part of the Administration's game plan for reducing the defense budget. Besides, government purchases are more direct and administratively efficient than cajoling private firms to pony up scarce capital to accompany subsidy payouts from government.
    24 Apr 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone think Norfolk will mention how their spending is going for locomotives tonight during their Q1 earnings announcement? $242 million budgeted for the year, so maybe they will say where some of it's going or went in Q1.

     

    http://bit.ly/AeOqn9
    24 Apr 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM

     

    If one reads all pertinent discussion on NS/Axion , and testing has gone very well, one would have to make an educated guess that 10-15% of that budgeted figure should go Axion's way ?

     

    Wouldn't that be fantastic !
    24 Apr 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • While checking some AXPW indicators, I noticed on a one year chart that the Ultimate Oscillator is as oversold as anytime since last June.
    24 Apr 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Take a gander at the accumulation/distribution line.
    25 Apr 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • We sat on 88100 share volume all afternoon, then traded over 100,000 shares in the last few minutes. What's up ?
    24 Apr 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT, my wife just bought 90K ;-)
    24 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • As John often writes. Most of the buying are the Axionistas.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • It is a bit scary... hopefully volume will ramp up soon.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru,

     

    Outstanding!

     

    I noticed the bid was thru UBS as mkt-maker. Are you two foreigners by any chance? I think I recall bids thru UBS when a European member of the Axionistas was buying.
    24 Apr 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, we're living in Germany ;-)
    24 Apr 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ausgezeichnet!

     

    That's about it for my german. 8^)
    24 Apr 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jeez, how many shares do the AUTO guys have to sell?

     

    At least it looks like Quercus is about 50k shares lighter between yesterday and today. Where are they now with their 850k allotment? 200k-250k left? That would mean they'll be done with this round in a couple weeks, at current rates. Maybe just before the conf call.
    24 Apr 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Can we be sure Quercus was in yesterday? We didn't see the usual AH trade. But today ...

     

    Got an AH trade of 19K @ $0.427, so Quercus was likely selling to the market-maker again this evening. 212K - 19K = 203, so they apparently gave a tad less than 10% (since volume was high in the last four minutes they likely didn't take time to recalculate) to the market-maker tonight for release tomorrow.

     

    The WV average intra-day trade price today was 0.4288, so this AH price fits the pattern too.

     

    The buy:sell has swung back in our favor at 1.12:1 and we had 30 trades that met or came near the ask vs. 16 that met or came near the bid.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Pretty cool in that f-kru explained most of today's action. Oh, and a guy on brand X posted today that he bought 40k at 43 cents. Not sure that was partly or all or not at all today, but it sounded like at least partially today. A rare day indeed when we get that much hard info.
    24 Apr 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • ACPW earning release came out. Inflection point?
    24 Apr 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the heads up, piano~. I bought on anticipation of a near-term inflection point. :-) Now, would be better than never.
    24 Apr 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Q&A from the ACPW Call:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Jeff Osborne – Stifel Nicolaus & Company

     

    And last one is just the, the last in environment has been pretty challenging in China in particular. I was just – want to get a sense from you what kind of headwinds do you face from a sales perspective just given the cheap lead acid batteries that are kind of out there at the moment given the subdue demand?

     

    Doug Milner

     

    Well yes certainly there is price pressure and you’re correct in pointing that out. We’ve seen I would say some elevated pricing pressure or lower prices from our competition but more simply in China. But really the distinction is I mean the customers that buy our solution buy it for a very specific reason. And it doesn’t matter how expensive or inexpensive lead acid batteries are – that reason is tough to beat in that space efficiency and power efficiency.

     

    So yes we have seen it we have had to address it, we’re taking a number of actions to reduce our landed cost and ultimately our delivered cost in China for the long term. But our customer buy Active Power solutions for a specific reason and I don’t think that we’re really subject to the same competitive pressure necessarily then the lead acid providers are subjecting each other to right now.
    25 Apr 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • >wtb - I found that Q&A rather interesting as well. Milner's response left me wondering if he realized the distinct differences between PbC and LA batteries. If I understand the PbC characteristic correctly, it is as practically as good if not as good as a flywheel in response time for power delivery and would definitely be capable of supplying that power for a longer period than a flywheel. Space wise, the AXPW solutions may have an advantage, but I'm not sure that is the case.
    25 Apr 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • I believe the flywheels have an advantage in both space and speed, but their primary market is a pretty extreme performance demand that would be way out to the left on a standard bell-shaped curve. The thing I like best about the PbC is that it provides great performance for the big majority of users who have more mundane needs that fall toward the middle of the curve. It doesn't need to be all things to all people.
    25 Apr 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Someone loves Tesla, or just want to get out?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Poul: I LOVED replying to that article!

     

    Today's news out of China, and what JP reported earlier today from Ford, was perfectly timed.

     

    Thanks for the heads up.
    24 Apr 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • I noticed the 0-60 time for the Mitsubishi Miev was13.4 Seconds. Reminded me of the Yugo. Googled Yugo 0-60 time and it was 14 seconds. Bet freeway merges are white-knuckle affairs.
    24 Apr 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • BW,
    The problem with a Yugo was whether it would stay running long enough to get to 60mph. ;-)
    24 Apr 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • It was the first "modern" s/s automobile ... but by accident! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    25 Apr 2012, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • Ha. We drag racers also consider factors like weight in the equation, and as anyone knows, Yugos were prone to shed major body components as they accelerated. Lose a few fenders, doors, or exhaust pipes, and they would tend to pick up speed (until a wheel fell off, now that would alter the curve)...
    25 Apr 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • NS earnings and conference call today (Tuesday) after the bell.

     

    Haven't listened to the call yet, but quick (so I might have missed it) scan of slides did NOT reveal a pic of NS 999 this time ... though the capital budget was not a point of emphasis this time (Deb H. Butler, EVP Planning and CIO presented in January)

     

    http://bit.ly/Ax7ISd

     

    Reuters: http://reut.rs/Ib9K2R

     

    Did catch this on a quick glance:

     

    1. MATERIALS AND OTHER
    During the first quarter of 2011, NS received an unfavorable ruling for an arbitration claim with an insurance carrier, and was denied recovery of the contested portion ($43 million) of the claim. As a result, NS recorded a $43 million charge for the receivables associated with the contested portion of the claim and a $15 million charge for other receivables affected by the ruling for which recovery was no longer probable.
    24 Apr 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • any idea what the claim was for ?
    24 Apr 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • insurance claim arising out of the Jan. 6, 2005, derailment in Graniteville, S.C.

     

    http://exm.nr/JIz3tY
    24 Apr 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Here's some interesting hybrid car history I just ran across. The 1916 Owen Magnetic hybrid car sported an electromagnetic transmission invented by an electrical engineer who had worked with Thomas Edison.

     

    It's fascinating to read that the electric brakes recovered energy from braking for charging the battery (sound familiar?) The company failed in 1922 but Jay Leno owns one of the 700 made, which still carries a placard warning operators to take the vehicle to the factory if you need repairs!

     

    http://bit.ly/I83JoG

     

    (Hat tip to lfpdinc for the link.)
    24 Apr 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • I wrote the following in the last concentrator after the new one was out so I'll repaste it here:

     

    A company by the name of "New Souce Energy Group, INC" has an IPO scheduled for May 8th, with expected pricing in the 10 to 12 dollar range (offering 9.1 million shares).

     

    Is this on anyone's radar or know anything about this co.... or is this another poor IPO?
    25 Apr 2012, 04:07 AM Reply Like
  • Is this the same one with a checkered past? This is from a 10 Q filed last year:

     

    "New Source Energy Group, Inc. (referred to herein as "New Source" or the "Company", and formerly known as "Ametrine Capital, Inc.") has been essentially inactive since its formation. Until November 19, 2010 the Company was regulated as a BDC under the Investment Company Act of 1940. However, the Company was not able to raise sufficient capital to execute upon its original business plan.

     

    On November 30, 2010 the Company's largest stockholder sold its entire interest in the Company (being approximately 92% of the Company's issued and outstanding shares."

     

    Then it did a reverse split ... then it tried to pursue oil and gas acquisitions .. then it was inactive ... etc. http://bit.ly/IaFBTq?storyid={c751fe14-5f4...

     

    Now it still claims to be an oil and gas exploration and production company: http://bit.ly/K9sNGS

     

    Not much of interest IMHO.
    25 Apr 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the links, Mercy! Yea... I think I'll move along and let that one pass... lol
    25 Apr 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • A List of interesting numbers & easy to read:

     

    $400 billion in fossil fuels subsidies worldwide:
    http://bloom.bg/I8MeEG
    25 Apr 2012, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • The big problems with numbers like those are (1) you have no idea what they include in the total, and (2) the gross numbers are never tied back to the amount of useful energy generated by the subsidized.

     

    A fascinating analysis of US subsidies appeared in Motley Fool last January that showed on a useful energy basis, US hydrocarbon subsidies were on the order of $0.35 per barrel of oil equivalent while the alternative energy subsidies were closer to $35 per barrel of oil equivalent.

     

    http://bit.ly/yiuOEe
    25 Apr 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • Quercus filed a new form 4. 8-)
    25 Apr 2012, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • Their numbers jump around a lot .... they show 1.9 m shares left instead of our number of 1.7 m

     

    I'll be glad when they're gone.
    25 Apr 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • 1.9 m more shares for Axionistas to buy on the cheap
    25 Apr 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • True, but I will be glad to sell some high for a change !
    25 Apr 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • They have almost two months to sell 276k. If axion continues to trade an average of ~200k/day resulting in them selling ~20K/day (10%) they will be out in a few weeks for this 90 day period which began on March 15th.

     

    JP says they can file an amended 144 form to sell more shares during this 90 day period but they didn't last period, but things might be different this round if the price climbs...no way to know.
    25 Apr 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • The important thing to remember is that it Quercus doesn't matter.
    They are not driving down the price. They are merely accepting the price 90% are accepting.

     

    I still keep wondering where the other 90% is coming from. I suspect it is a very small block of short term traders that keep jumping in and out. Its only a few cents but the % gain ( or loss) isn't bad.

     

    Form filings certainly don't indicate any "insider" trades one way or the other.
    25 Apr 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Quercus may not be driving down the price, but they sure are keeping it from going up & that's a negative.
    25 Apr 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • LT, they sold their 10%/day in Jan. and that did not seem to slow the +100% climb much.

     

    It is better not to have a steady selling of 10%/day but when this thing wants to move it will move.
    25 Apr 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • It's important to remember the double count. On a 200,000 share volume day, 100,000 of the reported volume was shares leaving the hands of selling stockholders like Q and 100,000 of the reported volume was shares entering the hands of investors like U.
    25 Apr 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • HLT,

     

    As expected by, I think, everyone else (;^)), Quercus was still 10% of daily volume, for the dates data was given--4/16 thru 4/20:

     

    http://bit.ly/Ilmd0k

     

    http://yhoo.it/ITVtEI
    25 Apr 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • No immediate purchase on market open. Nearly a 3 cent difference between bid and ask. Looks like MM bought 100 shares at ask to get things moving.
    25 Apr 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Unusual start to the day--pre-mkt offer stayed at 49 cents until right before the mkt open. Now it's still high, at just under 45. Figured there was perhaps a large buy order somewhere. Then 50k at 42.1 cents appeared. For anyone that can see the depth, is there also a large order under one of the best bids?
    25 Apr 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Nite has a 36.280K bid at .43, and there's 15K a bit higher. We actual had a transaction at .44!
    25 Apr 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • JAKurtz' call in the header is looking smarter by the minute.
    25 Apr 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • The high today was a "fishing lure" at the open of $0.4498 for 100 shares.

     

    As of 11:44:28, share "buys" 49,340 and "sells" 152,150. 13 trades "buys", 16 "sells". VW average trade $0.4295.

     

    The market-maker is running this to satisfy some big clients, IMO.

     

    Ignoring that "lure" at the open, $0.44 is the high.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Apr 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • This Axion report popped up on my radar this morning -

     

    http://bit.ly/Ka33dq
    25 Apr 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • It's a nice piece of work, but I am puzzled that they spend so much time on the 2010 financial statements instead of the 2012 statements and subsequent events.
    25 Apr 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • I agree, they fail to include 2011 and with TG's statements have the ability to make some credible estimates into 2012 ...

     

    Otherwise, a lot of good info for the newby.
    25 Apr 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan, JP -- Thanks for the info.
    25 Apr 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Lacking uptodate data...

     

    Looks like it might be a lure to sell more current info. Hook to follow.
    25 Apr 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Early fishing 100x2 $0.4498 & $0.4211. Later 50K $0.4211 09:57:02, a "sell".

     

    HardToLove
    25 Apr 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Just having AUTO a half-cent above the best offer for more than a moment is refreshing.
    25 Apr 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Couple of big sell blocks crossed at the bid (roughly 100,000 shares)....knocking it back down to .425/.43
    25 Apr 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • OT - about 50 APC's ago, I mentioned a company called Cytomedix. I was planning on writing an SA article on it now that its over a dollar, but this writer beat me to it and did a fine job.

     

    Take a look if you are interested.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Apr 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Steve Bulwa has just written a nice piece on ACPW. It's a good read.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Apr 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • This shows just how good and what an impact this concentrator has on AXPW and how it even helps with their sales and ideas. This is powerful. Keep up the good work and thanks to all here. It is working.

     

    Follow up to JP's last post on concentrator 89 where he stated "I got a call from Mario at Rosewater" who had seen Pztricks chart and wanted to make one like it for presentations done by Rosewater.
    25 Apr 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • I prepared a more detailed quarterly model for Mario and have uploaded a copy to my DropBox for anybody who wants to play with it. The color highlighted cells are all user selected variables. The rest calculates automatically. It's a cool little tool for somebody who wants to test alternative use and fuel cost scenarios.

     

    http://bit.ly/IbVYz7
    25 Apr 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • I didn't think the crew was working hard enough so I added 5 days to their schedule. It moved our positive cash flow up a quarter. Now I need to calculate overtime <smile>...
    25 Apr 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Nice spreadsheet JP. Break-even on the project, with the hurdle rate in the spreadsheet is ~$2.00 gallon for fuel. Of course, savings regarding the generators themselves will only lower this break-even price further.

     

    One issue with the spreadsheet relates to cash flow. I wonder what payment terms will be for power cube. This assumes Axion and Rosewater are giving terms (30-60 days?). When you consider all the variable costs Axion will experience producing a power cube, cash will definitely become an issue, particularly for those applications where an inverter is required.

     

    My apology for making up numbers, but if the time from ordering parts to receiving revenue for a power cube is 5 months, and the average cost is $400k, that would be about $2m in cash in the scenario of 1 power cube order per month.

     

    JP, at what point would you think that Axion might be able to establish a line of credit with a bank? Could that be a leading indicator or would it only be possible after orders are made public?

     

    Thanks
    25 Apr 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • No reason to give 30-60 day terms. First off, no one in their right mind offers over 30 day terms. Secondly, it is going to take an earnest money down payment - probably 25% at least, or maybe a third. Second payment on delivery , final payment perhaps 30 days later.

     

    If I were selling it the terms would be 50% down, 50% on delivery. Let the guy buying it worry about financing. Axion can't afford to play banker.
    25 Apr 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • In a normal scenario I'd expect a company to put a revolving credit facility in place for the inventory, build and carry cost of PowerCube sales. Once again, however, Axion may not fit the *normal* mode because the flooded battery contract and the inventory, receivable and payable accounts associated with that relationship would make a revolver difficult to put together to a banker's satisfaction.

     

    All things being equal I think Axion is likely to be pretty tight with terms for the next couple years and shoot for half down and half on delivery.
    26 Apr 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • some weird stuff today ... volume up with some big blocks traded. Looks to be selling into bids as they accumulate in size .

     

    285,900 traded with 90 minutes left in trading.
    25 Apr 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Alternatives to oil gaining traction:
    http://tinyurl.com/878...
    25 Apr 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Happy to accumulate some more at .43

     

    I've got this sixth sense (or is it a seventh?) that good things are getting closer.
    25 Apr 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • With you on that one OR.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Guess my sixth sense was the NS order!
    26 Apr 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Long as you don't start seeing dead shareholders, we'll be okay... http://bit.ly/ISR7yG
    26 Apr 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Or shareholders that don't know they're shareholders (*cough* my wife *cough*)
    27 Apr 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • D
    You probably have more commenters in the same "wife" boat than one might think!...funny!
    27 Apr 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • mag, so true and you can add me to that list. Thankfully, I got better deals on her shares than I did on mine. So when she asks, all that I have to say is "green" (and her shares have been green for quite awhile).
    27 Apr 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Schedule 14-A is out...Shareholder meeting set for June 21,2012
    I will be attending, PM me if anyone wants to coordinate.

     

    The Axion Power International, Inc. Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) will be held on June 21, 2012, at New Castle Country Club, 511 Country Club Drive, New Castle, PA 16105 at 10:00 AM. The principal business of the meeting will be:

     

    1. To elect a director to serve until the expiration of his three year term and thereafter until his successor has been duly elected and qualified;
    2. To ratify the selection of EFP Rotenberg, LLP, as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2012; and
    3. To transact such other business as may be properly brought before the Annual Meeting and any adjournment or postponement thereof.
    25 Apr 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the heads up, LT. Interesting that the meet is a full month sooner than last year.

     

    What a great way to start the summer!

     

    I'll be seeing many of you there.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Somebody asked about the possibility of a reverse split on the CC and Tom said he didn't think one likely. If the company was going to propose a reverse split it would have been in the definitive proxy statement because that's where those things are done.

     

    Once again the opinion of management is clear – "We don't need no stinking reverse split."
    25 Apr 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Is there a slate of candidates for the director job or anyone proposed?
    25 Apr 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know, bang, but I think AXPW is replacing David Anthony.

     

    ####

     

    I will be glad to start up an Instablog for people interested in attending, sharing lodging costs, travel, etc.

     

    Last year, the Hampton Inn seemed to be where most shareholder attendees stayed. It's about four or five miles from Axion headquarters.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • The new director proposed is D. Walker Wainwright:

     

    D. Walker Wainwright, 61, is an independent director who was appointed to our board of directors in January 2007. He is the former Chairman of Interboro Insurance Company, a provider of personal lines insurance products in New York State. He is also the founder and chief executive of Wainwright & Co. LLC, an independent financial advisory firm and investment manager. The Firm’s activities include the identification and assessment of alternative investments, the monitoring of these investments and the creation of proprietary portfolios. In this respect, the firm works with investment management firms, not-for-profit organizations and family offices as an independent consultant to create client-specific solutions. Wainwright & Co. also researches and reviews private investments, including private equity funds, to assist in determining their suitability for specific accounts or portfolios. Formerly a Managing Director in investment banking at Smith Barney, Inc. and at Kidder, Peabody & Co., Mr. Wainwright has over 35 years’ consulting, banking and investment banking experience. Having directed Kidder’s investment banking efforts in the Asia Pacific Region, he has extensive international experience and has lived in Australia and Lebanon. Mr. Wainwright began his career at Chemical Bank and, subsequently, the Schroder Group. He is a graduate of Stanford University (A.B. – 1972) and of Columbia University (M.B.A. – 1976). The Company has determined that Mr. Wainwright should serve as a director due to his long term finance and banking experience.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Walker Wainright is standing for re-election but Glenn Patterson isn't. So it looks like they're not going to fill the Anthony slot or the Patterson slot, which will go a long way toward streamlining the board.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • It does not appear that TG is replacing David Anthony.....unless:

     

    You want to vote to "write my name in" ...LOL

     

    I may mention this to TG...tell him the axionista's need a director
    25 Apr 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • This will be an intriguing conference. Perhaps the first in history where an gang of investors meet in the cyberworld, and then later meet in person at a conference. A quasi-flash mob.

     

    Truly amazing. Like bangwhiz writes in his Google webpage: "We've got the power!"
    25 Apr 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting ownership update--as of April 10, 2012: Manatuck Hill and Blackrock holdings are unchanged (nice to see no selling), but Quercus' is only approx. 1.673 million shares. So it looks like their own Form 4 filings are even more inaccurate than we thought? Taking their filed sells thru 4/20/2012 and adding 10% of daily volume since would leave 1.464 million shares. Don't think it changes their 850k allotment calc's, though.

     

    Anyone have time to run the numbers more thoroughly? Thanks.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Throwing some more nickels around like manhole covers, I see...

     

    Very good.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • To fill in the back story a bit, Walker Wainright has been a director since January 2007 when I stepped down from the board to make room for him as a director. He's got good credentials, a solid background and was a big help on a financing we did in late 2006.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Continuing with stock ownership changes--some of which may be old and perhaps very old news: Filipenko and Buiel are totally out (1.913 million shares total); Patterson is about 100k lighter. So if he's leaving as a Director, will he sell shares? He's got 2.6 million, so it's no small matter, at least until the stock makes a run up on big volume ;^).

     

    Nice to see a couple of guys have a few more shares, including Wainwright.

     

    Last years' Proxy:

     

    http://bit.ly/IoKgL4

     

    This years':

     

    http://bit.ly/Id9fY1
    25 Apr 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. Buiel sold shares? Or is it just that he's no longer required to be listed?
    25 Apr 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Total common share ownership of the board of directors is 7,196,825

     

    Total common share ownership of the Axionistas is _________?

     

    ans: a lot more.
    25 Apr 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Former directors and executives are not listed, so there is no way for us to tell whether Buiel or Filipenko have sold or not.
    25 Apr 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • with or w/o JP's shares?

     

    who is counting?
    25 Apr 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the correction, had only a few seconds to write my two posts. Should have waited. "Measure once quickly, then cut wherever the heck you want" is not how it's supposed to go. And I suppose the Man. Hill and Blackrock numbers might not necessarily be the actuals at 4/10/12, if the company is relying on the same public records we are.

     

    The Quercus info is puzzling, still.
    25 Apr 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • I think I could (but won't) point to 5-6 Axionistas that could combine their shares and equal JP's number of shares...

     

    Though we don't come close to equaling the amount of effort he has given in educating everyone in the energy storage business...
    25 Apr 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Wasn't looking to anyone to point... just looking for someone to count those willing to admit what they have. APH? TM9? JAK? TE? MS? (okay, one of those was a joke)
    25 Apr 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tim: I'll raise ya. I know I could do that in 4.

     

    And I agree, John's perserverance is legendary.
    25 Apr 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Jon: I think Futurist already did an informal talley, and IIRC he had the Axionistas at over 14,000,000 shares, which likely has only gone up.

     

    I think JP had us much higher, owning something like 37% of the common, but that was before the private offering.
    25 Apr 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • You forgot MAP's 100 shares.
    25 Apr 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Was trying to search and couldn't figure out who did it before. Confirmed it was Futurist once you reminded me what to search for in my e-mail. If Futurist is up for it again, maybe we could update numbers sometime before the annual meeting?
    25 Apr 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • LMAO, bang!
    25 Apr 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Maya: you got me, I fold (damn! should have called)

     

    Indeed...
    25 Apr 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • are we closing in on 20% of outstanding shares in this chat room?
    25 Apr 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • It took Joyce almost a decade to complete Ulysses and 17 years to get Finnegans Wake published...so Maya is doing just fine.
    25 Apr 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, start the instablog please....also PM me the address to the Hampton Inn. thanks.
    25 Apr 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist's tally is repeated at the beginning of Concentrator 37 from Concentrator 36.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    A few comments down JP estimates 32 million shares owned by the axionistas. I was one who reported his shares at the time. I have nearly doubled my shares since then. I suspect many of you added at the end of the year like I did. If JP's earlier estimate is correct we could easily control 50 Million shares now.

     

    I don't know that electing a director from this group would be helpful. I believe JP warned us that as soon as someone was elected, they would not be able divulge any insider info.
    25 Apr 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT: Done. Link Below:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Apr 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • an Axionista on the board wouldn't be about the information... it would be about a voice from a very dedicated group of shareholders...

     

    maybe its a dumb idea... but if as a group we come to own 20% or more of the company... its a thought...
    25 Apr 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Former directors and executive officers are dropped from proxy tables unless they own more than 5% of a company's stock. I'd be very surprised to learn that either Igor or Ed have sold. Glenn Patterson sold 62,000 shares in February and March of 2011, but hasn't sold anything since then. Pages 37 through 41 of the Form 10-K lay out detailed information on all stock sales by Axion since inception. Given the prices the old guard paid, believing any of us will sell voluntarily at these levels is unreasonable.
    26 Apr 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Wait, jveal -- our future director can divulge insider information BEFORE they get elected!

     

    Somebody needs to put me on THAT mailing list!

     

    [note to SEC observers -- this comment is entirely in jest. I do not trade on insider information nor do I know anybody who does.]
    26 Apr 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • I guess the flipper's philosophy is buy at a discount and unload as quick as possible for whatever gain the market gives you and then move on to the next flip opportunity. Beats bond and CD rates I suppose if successful.

     

    We're building a solid base between .40 and .44 at least. So I guess the next avalanche of selling will be around .60-.63.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • It appeared there were some larger blocks traded today. I expect Quercus & this action to keep us range bound until news pushes it up and it actually breaks out....there are more shares out now and some of them will get sold on rallies.

     

    .42 appears to be holding fairly well....but .44 gets sell orders flying.
    Even with that, it still wants to try to go higher, so it won't take much.
    25 Apr 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe we could nominate one of the smarter Axionista's as a director. Be interesting to see how many votes we could get even though we would probably lose. Maybe it would turn out like the movie "The Mouse that Roared!"
    25 Apr 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Surely you jest, but having read through the whole 14F, I noticed that a nomination from the shareholders has to be submitted by May 31, next year. This year is out.

     

    As for being smart, I think we'll all feel a lot smarter when Axion hits $2.00.
    25 Apr 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • and don't call me Shirley!

     

    better yet: http://bit.ly/Ia6Zjr
    25 Apr 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • OT Humor for all you Apple Lovers or Haters:
    http://bit.ly/IhhTUe
    25 Apr 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks. That was fabulous
    25 Apr 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • ...My cat is homeless now.
    25 Apr 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Love it!
    26 Apr 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • Brilliant! Thanks bang.
    26 Apr 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Sadly, I know these people ...
    26 Apr 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • ( New Customer)
    I want an AGM battery.

     

    (Rosewater salesperson)
    WHy? A PbC does it better, lasts longer,etc.

     

    (New Customer)
    I want an AGM battery.

     

    And on it goes. LOL. Thanks Bang.
    25 Apr 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • PbC is iphone4 to axionistas I believe, therefore the new customer should want a PbC battery!
    26 Apr 2012, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • Golden Cross Watch:

     

    .4584 = 200-day VWMA
    .4115 = 50-day VWMA
    .4253 = 20-day VWMA
    .4308 = 10-day VWMA

     

    .0276 = 10-day crossover difference
    .0469 = 50-day crossover difference
    26 Apr 2012, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • "Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order for PbC® Batteries"

     

    "Axion Power said this first $400,000 purchase order is part of a $475,000 total purchase order, that will be used in the commissioning of Norfolk Southern's NS-999. The total purchase order will be shipped and deployed in the next 90 – 120 days. To date, this is the largest single PbC battery order that Axion has received. No further details were disclosed."

     

    http://prn.to/IPp03x

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • HTL ... WoW...are u fast this morning...I just seen it and boom you already had it here !

     

    I am so glad to see that this is now official...no more guessing. $475,000 is a very nice order. This should get things moving.
    26 Apr 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry for the delay - it was released 11 minutes before I could get it up (keep the wise cracks to yourself! :-))

     

    Now, does good news get punished? Or ignored?

     

    I think this satisfies the "real order" criteria DRich mentioned?

     

    TG wasn't taking much risk in projecting the revenue growth was he?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Terrific news!
    26 Apr 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • "TG wasn't taking much risk in projecting the revenue growth was he?"

     

    You read my thoughts.... I can't imagine it getting punished on this news... to me this is what I have been waiting for. This is a real Purchase order from a major company with potential for much future business. Not another "test". I can't imagine the batteries failing after all the testing, and as JP states "the embarrassment" of the first failure. Can't wait to see them installed and the NS 999 at work.

     

    Maybe this is the beginning of the "market acceptance" I have been waiting for.
    26 Apr 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • No mention of a BMS included in the 400 or 475k, so this is all for batteries?
    On Jan 25th D-Inv suggested $250-$300/battery
    $475k/1080 = $439 each.
    That seems a lot, even if that $75k extra is some kind of service aspect:
    400,000/1080 = $370
    Does this mean a better margin, or higher than expected costs, or where is the calculation to be modified?
    26 Apr 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT: Transportation charges? Maybe they ship them on a different RR? :-))

     

    In seriousness, I suspect some ancillary equipment and/or services might be included. Maybe some on-site engineering support, etc.?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • "shipped and deployed in the next 90 – 120" does "deployed" mean installed? It seems an odd word to include unless it has some meaning.
    But if 90 days, or even most of it, is the delivery period it's not exactly a high production rate (<20 batteries / day or so!).
    I can't believe that production is running so high that they can't process this order in less than a month, or if they're not producing much then obviously it can all be done in a week.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Turn your speakers up and celebrate:
    http://tinyurl.com/5fsnjk
    http://tinyurl.com/738n4j
    http://tinyurl.com/2ec...
    26 Apr 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • I opened all three links in different tabs, while reading the release...again, a beautiful thing!
    26 Apr 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • I interpert "deployed" as meaning it's out of the testing phase. From another link, "... a $475,000 total purchase order, that will be used in the commissioning of Norfolk Southern's NS-999”. Commissioning means it's going to be earning its' keep. I really want a model of the NS-999 on my desk. It's the first of the many.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT > "No mention of a BMS included in the 400 or 475k, so this is all for batteries?
    On Jan 25th D-Inv suggested $250-$300/battery
    $475k/1080 = $439 each."

     

    Could be your on the right track (pun intended) with the NS purchase order, Dave. On the other hand, it might be worthwhile to consider the 1,080 battery count from the original NS999 as a low ball estimate of PbC battery count needed for the same energy reserve.

     

    Assuming the top line AGM batteries installed in the original NS999 had an energy density of 35 kW/lb and PbC has 25 kW/lb one might surmise that a PbC equipped NS999 would take 1.4x more batteries for comparable energy reserve. 1.4 X 1080 = 1,512; 475k/1.512k = $314 per battery.
    26 Apr 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT: I suspect the delay is to meet customer scheduling requirements, not production capacity restraints. Large projects, which this certainly must be considering the work (NSC) will have to do, often get components scheduled in near the time of use.

     

    (CPST) micro-turbines are a good example of this where the typical lead-time from order to use is 12-18 months to allow for what the customer must do.

     

    In the cases where the customer is ready now, the units ship in a much shorter time-frame.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • The "It's alive." couldn't be more appropriate. My reaction to the Axion/NS announcement was akin to Dr. Frankenstein's.
    26 Apr 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • It's entirely possible that per unit pricing today with one electrode line running is higher than it will be with 10 lines running. Suppliers treat you very differently when you're ordering smaller volumes than they do with bigger volumes and overhead per unit in a low volume operation is always higher than it would be with high volume. I'd also expect that NS would want to keep a spare parts inventory of batteries sitting in a nearby shed to quickly replace any that do fail. The final variable is profit margin. Knowing TG I expect he'd be very reluctant to sell batteries at a loss to NS or anybody else.

     

    I'm reluctant to draw too many conclusions without a lot more detail.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: Absolutely "beeeeoooootiful". Got me a chuckle.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2012, 04:51 AM Reply Like
  • The 30HT form factor is a significantly larger battery than your standard AGM. 25-30% if I remember correctly...
    27 Apr 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • >Tim E, thanks for that info. That larger size could well explain the need (reported earlier) for new battery rack installation in the NS999. And, the larger 30HT batteries undoubtedly cost a bit more than standard AGM size batteries.
    27 Apr 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Good Morning AXIONISTAS:
    Very good news, good news. There is another that I also like:

     

    ...We have been moving on a parallel development path with respect to supplying batteries for the first NS 'over the road' locomotive. This larger, more powerful, unit will require approximately twice the number of batteries as those to be shipped for the yard 'switcher' locomotive. High-performance PbC batteries are ideally suited for hybrid locomotive applications due to their high charge acceptance, fast charge and discharge capabilities (important in regenerative braking), and their inherent ability to equalize voltage when utilized in large string configurations."

     

    Have a good day!!!!
    26 Apr 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • I would expect another order for the "over the road" loco in either the 4th quarter or 1st qtr. of 2013 after the 999 is fitted.

     

    We have been moving on a parallel development path with respect to supplying batteries for the first NS 'over the road' locomotive. This larger, more powerful, unit will require approximately twice the number of batteries as those to be shipped for the yard 'switcher' locomotive.
    26 Apr 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Another confirmation that whatever comes out of Tom Granville' mouth is "TRUE"

     

    Have a nice day everyone !
    26 Apr 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • This news makes my mouth water. I hope the price action for the stock is going to be good but the important thing for me is that FINALLY a big company has committed to buying the PbC! That will really put Axion on the map! ***VICTORY***!!!
    26 Apr 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Proof positive of feasibility. If the business case for PbC passes muster with Norfolk Southern and all their analysts and engineers, this is only the beginning.

     

    Very good news for Axion. And, verifies our trust in TG. Here's to trusting him to deliver 300% rev growth in '12 and '13. Cheers
    26 Apr 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Another link regarding today's news.

     

    "Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order for PbC® Batteries"

     

    http://on.mktw.net/IGjkJi
    26 Apr 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Today was NS and tomorrow could be: BMW, GM, EXIDE, East Penn, Rosewater, Varidity or PJM.
    Nice list, right?
    26 Apr 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • The elevator doors are closing!
    26 Apr 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • That was good news to read after waking up from nap. Congratulations to all Axion employees and management, as well as the Axionistas. We've been waiting a long time for this. Let's hope that this good news goes unpunished. This should give Axion a good position on which to hang its hat to use with future sales - especially in light of all the testing that was done on the battery to go into this sale. To celebrate, I gave everyone a "like" who has commented on the sale.
    26 Apr 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: I like your old picture better!
    26 Apr 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • yes, but the man has a sense of humor... see his other posts and you'll understand the image.
    26 Apr 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • that would be krill in the picture. At least for a day or two.
    26 Apr 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • TG's favorite PR lines and the unspoken translation

     

    "We anticipate a long and mutually beneficial partnership ( with NS) as they move forward with their hybrid locomotive strategy."

     

    translation: When I said 300% per year growth I was serious. This order plus the OTR loco order later this year will total 1.5 Million in PbC sales alone.

     

    "Of course PbC batteries are also very stable and safe..."

     

    translation: Hey Lithium.(with thumb on nose and fingers wiggling) Na na na na naaa

     

    "PbC batteries operate safely at all temperatures; are 100% recyclable; and are priced substantially below the cost of some of the more highly publicized exotic battery chemistries.

     

    translation. Hey, Battery users. If you want something cheap that really works give Axion Power International a call.
    26 Apr 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Haha Futurist - I had the same exact reaction to reading the "stable and safe" comment. It was a deliberate plug against certain explosions in the news lately (Warren, Mich. factory, etc).
    26 Apr 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist: You forgot "Hey Exide! Phhhht!".

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Can anyone explain why the price hasn't shot up?... It actually went up more when we sold 40 batteries for testing! Ok, I'll be patient and wait a few hours :o)
    26 Apr 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • This is a very nice first step. The OTR unit later this year will be a great second step. The fascinating question is what percentage of their 3,666 multi-purpose, 123 switching and 116 auxiliary locomotives will be converted to electric drive if the first two perform as expected.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • And over what time period?

     

    What capacity and capital budget will NS allocate to this, and how much will they reveal publicly? It was interesting that this PR came out the same week as the NS quarterly report.

     

    How far in advance will NS commit? How long will the OTR unit has to be in service for them to commit to major battery deliveries?

     

    Dreaming of "steady/predictable" AXPW income between NS and the flooded battery contracts ... just for starters!

     

    But I don't think the stock price will really move till we get some of these answers.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Well said, WT. And congrats to all Axionistas. Its a great morning!
    26 Apr 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • The funny thing about battery testing is you can learn more in the laboratory than you can in a vehicle because you can make the test conditions so much more demanding. That's the big reason the darned tests take so bloody long. Think about it, NS has been doing double redundant testing for 2-1/2 years. Frankly the first purchase order pales in comparison to the engineering and testing costs they've incurred over the last couple years.

     

    Hopefully Tom will be able to put some color on their expectations for likely follow on orders in the next conference call. Any way you slice it, it will take a lot more good news to make a dent in the NS fleet of 4,000 locomotives, or the 20,000 units owned by CSX, UP and BNSF.

     

    Norfolk Southern wants to reduce its CO2 emissions by 6% over the next four years. The only way to do that is reduce its fuel use by 6% over the next four years.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • >wtblanchard ... Now, at $400k per engine and NS has 1576 (1836(?)) in-service switcher locos, I'm guessing that over the next 5 years about 150/yr will become electric (or Green Goat hybrid) or about $63M/yr to Axion from a single road. Multiply that by 5 and this should be rail revenue for the next 7-8 years starting next year or the year after and remain in the $100M range forever.

     

    Then there is the rest of the world. What kind of share price will that be going forward? I don't know & I could be low. Onward toward marine applications in about 5 years. Just need to find an application to pick up the slack between now & then.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John, What does a 6 percent reduction in fuel cost mean in NS dollars? And how many PBCs would be involved even if they are only half of the solution?

     

    I'd bet NS fuel bill is many multiples of our market cap =)
    28 Apr 2012, 02:48 AM Reply Like
  • Since NS spent $1.6 billion on fuel in 2011, a 6% reduction would be just a hair shy of $100 million, or $96 million to be precise. I'm working to wrap my arms around the annual fuel savings per dollar of battery investment right now so I'll let the second part of your question slide for a couple days.
    28 Apr 2012, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • baz > "John, What does a 6 percent reduction in fuel cost mean in NS dollars? And how many PBCs would be involved even if they are only half of the solution? "

     

    Your question piqued enough interest to prompt a Yahoo search on "Norfolk Southern fuel use" which returned http://tinyurl.com/7tl... among other links. From that link, we have
    <
    Compared with 2009, we reduced our greenhouse gas emissions by 3.9 percent per revenue ton-mile of freight in 2010. We achieved nearly 40 percent of our goal to reduce emissions by 10 percent per revenue ton-mile between 2009 and 2014.

     

    We improved the fuel efficiency of our locomotive fleet by 2.2 percent over 2009. That resulted in diesel fuel savings equivalent to 10.2 million gallons and reduced emissions of 104,924 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents.
    <
    2.2 percent savings amounting to 10.2 million gallons indicates fuel use of 463.64 million gallons (11.04 million barrels) in 2009 and 453.44 million gallons (10.8 million barrels) in 2010. A further reduction of 36.2 million gallons (.862 million barrels) is needed to meet the original goal of 10% reduction from 2009 consumption by 2014. With 2014 a mere 20 months away, the clock is ticking on the NS game plan

     

    It would really be interesting to see a breakdown of NS fuel consumption by 'over-the-road' and 'switcher' locomotives and to get a read on fuel use reduction realized in 2011.
    28 Apr 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • Notice in pre-market FANC MM is the best on both sides of the bid/ask with standard sizes presented.

     

    Earlier they had their ask at $0.431.

     

    I didn't know MMs read news.

     

    Patience here might pay off, or not, *if* FANC is setting both sides to service a larger seller.

     

    Guessing as usual,
    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Many positive reactions to the news.... I would like to add a couple of unwritten points:

     

    1. The new showing on MarketWatch shows a much better and coordinated release...Maybe Vani ?

     

    2.Deployed in 90-120 days I think means installed....they can deliver the batteries quicker, may already have them. It will take a while to retro-fit the 999. That's why I say they get it running first, and then start the OTR model next year.

     

    3. This gives me much more confidence in what TG says, especially about revenue and break even in '13. It makes you think that barring a global disaster that he already has it in his pocket.

     

    4. No matter what the stock price does today, this makes me very, very excited about the future.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • The ask is moving up: now .461

     

    Where's that "golden cross" JP & HTL ?
    26 Apr 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • A golden cross is a confirmed breakout signal determined by long and short term moving averages.

     

    Investopedia defines a "golden cross" as crossover involving a security's short-term moving average (such as 15-day moving average) breaking above its long-term moving average (such as 50-day moving average) or resistance level.

     

    http://bit.ly/JFjDrN

     

    A definition I like best has the 10-day VWMA move up through the 200-day VWMA and the 50-day VWMA turn up.

     

    If you look at my graph in the header the golden cross is the point in February 2011 when all three short term averages moved up through the 200-day average and marked the start of a serious run. In 2011, there were three *problem* shareholders that owned a total of 25 million shares they wanted to sell. When they piled into the market they crushed the run. This time around I can't see a similar dynamic because the *problem* holders are either out of stock, or darned close.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • thanks for the definition

     

    The "golden cross" I would really like to see is when AXPW crosses above AONE ! LOL but seriously.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • With regards to the title article, it would appear that history may have a very good chance to rhyme!
    26 Apr 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Great job, Axion. Love the word, "Initial" in the headline. They probably discussed that with NS for a week--"how do we make the headline say more is coming, without saying too much?"

     

    Premkt pricing finally starting to move above yesterday's close.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Wow, what a relieve. This is huge! Now let's see if history repeats itself as we're leaving the right hand side circle in jakurtz' picture.
    This will be tremendoulsly helpful to pave the way for Vani and Rosewater of future sales.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • You may never live down the inevitable teasing from your wife who can claim genius status for her big share purchase earlier this week.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • This announcement brought the buyers off the sidelines....78,000 and rising in less than 1 minute
    26 Apr 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Stock Price:
    To anyone following this stock this announcement isn't news. Its confirmation of what the EPA held up last year. It does however take away any gnawing concerns that maybe it was the PbC product cvausing issues, and not NS or the EPA.

     

    Normally expected news is already built into the price.

     

    Yet most of us feel that the price has yet to reflect the 300% revenue increase for the next two years. If this bit of news is a confirmation of that, then Axion will have a minimum of $90 million in revenue for 2013 FY. The present value of a breakeven company with disruptive technology? The old $1.25 per share base should be back, very soon.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • I agree, and we had 200,000 shares sold at the bid just now...this is to be expected. HTL may also tell you there will be a gap to fill as a result of this morning.

     

    Confirmation of another good sale should validate the break even and the growth rate. Then I do think we see your $1.25
    26 Apr 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • I think you're underestimating the revenue Futurist.

     

    2011 revenue was $8 million, a 300% increase from $2 million in 2010.

     

    A 300% increase in 2012 will take Axion to $32 million.

     

    A 300% increase in 2013 will take Axion to $128 million.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • No gap to fill though.

     

    I'm sorta glad about that - I'm tired of suspense and wouldn't like wondering if it was going to move to fill it.

     

    BTW, interesting that volume on the share issue day of 2/1 was 2.55M and today was 2.35M.

     

    Hm, ...

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Wow - DRich's Customer No. 1 has arrived. DRich bought Axion over 4 years ago because he felt the PbC was the battery the railroads had been looking for over the past 75 years. Congrats DRich. Our railroad buff Axionista hit the nail square on the head four years ago!

     

    The exciting thing to me, beyond NS, is that this gives Axion a green light with all the other locomotive integrators and end users. If the stock gets punished on this good news I'll happily buy as much as I can today.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • >bangwhiz ... Easy there, buckaroo. Outfitting NS999 for the road is still the testing stage of the project. A good development but still testing. Customer No. 1 will be someone that has made the determination that the PbC is the working solution of choice. If NS puts it in another loco, then I'll be happy that Axion has finally found Customer No. 1.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • I put in an order at .45 thinking it wouldn't be filled, trying to be that spineless accumulator, and surprisingly it was. Hopefully that is double good news today. And I'm hoping we have a good volume day to allow Quercus to get rid of all the remaining bits of the 850,000 so we cut loose that small anchor - at least for now.

     

    Seeing price action after only a few minutes: There are better invertebrates than myself.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Nice buy, and you should be well rewarded if patient. I too will be glad to see Quercus out. Even though they are orderly, they are an "anchor" as you said.....however, that anchor just got a bit lighter.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Volume for the day is up to 840k in just the first hour of trading. How much of that do you all suppose is Quercus? Have they finally exhausted their shares? I too snagged a few more at $0.44 :)
    26 Apr 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Quercus has been a steady hand at 10% of reported volume day in and day out. As of last night, they had an estimated 175,000 shares left under their most recent Form 144 filing. I'd be surprised if Quercus accounted for more than 10% of today's trading volume because their history is too consistent. In any event they should file another Form 4 by tomorrow or Monday which will let us know for sure.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • With volume today already at 1.36 million shares, looks like they'll be done with their 850k allotment today.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • I suspect it was Quercus who pounced on the volume... which is fine by me since 700k shares have already traded. Perhaps we should thank them for letting us buy today cheaper than it would have been. I too was surprised to have my bid hit.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Now the stk is even crazier-cheap down here.

     

    I expect a new group of investors to enter now that there is confirmation that an elephant wants the PbC.

     

    800k shares in first half-hour. Eating thru the resistance. Yum.
    26 Apr 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Battery testing is the most agonizing process in the world because it takes so darned long to do it right. Unfortunately, the longer a process takes the more investors come to assume that the *delays* are an indication that *something's wrong* when the truth is the longer the process takes, the higher the probability of success gets.

     

    It's one thing for a company like Axion to say "NS is testing our PbC" and another entirely to say "NS tested our PbC for 2-1/2 years and is now buying our product for their poster child green initiative."

     

    Gee, don't we know of a first tier automaker or two that have been testing the PbC for a couple years for their poster child green initiatives?
    26 Apr 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • JP...now THAT...would knock the ball out of the park!
    26 Apr 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • I don't expect anything automaker for a while yet because NS is an end user where the automakers are buying something they want to integrate into products that they'll sell to end users, which makes the automakers a bit more careful and a bit more risk averse.

     

    That being said, the successful conclusion of one testing program that seemed to drag on forever may soothe jangled nerves that automaker testing is dragging on forever.

     

    Eventually folks will come to the understanding that these things take a long time and that *dragging on forever* means that everything is proceeding smoothly. It's the early terminations you want to avoid.
    26 Apr 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • I keep having to remind myself that testing is only part of the equation. Once testing is completed and accepted we are still at the mercy of markets, budget and the EPA. To my knowledge, the Ford Fusion will be the first SS sold in the US and the Fusion has quite the lineup. We should be able to order them next month at which time we can ask what battery comes with…
    26 Apr 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist,
    You seem to be bang on re NS news being baked in to the existing price. Although this felt like a significant milestone to me, this in truth derived from avoidance of the 30% price drop that would surely have accompanied news that NS was giving up on the PbC. More rationally, this is 'just' more testing, this time in the field, bringing locomotives to the point that BMW reached 6 months ago. Four months until NS field testing starts. 6 months minimum of that (?) and a 'real' rail order(s) not before this time next year. In the meantime let's hope we have that larger over the road field testing order alluded to, and some other sundry cube sales to keep us cheerful.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Today is bargain day! Easiest money to be made I've seen in ages.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • BANG

     

    Stock hit 40 cents pal...Buy some more!!

     

    map
    26 Apr 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Through 90 trades at 10:06, buy 301,535, sell 515,940, ratio 1:1.68.

     

    All Quercus or some more "flippers" from 2/1 issue?

     

    Anyway, there were, as suggested by recent action, sellers primed apparently.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • I suspect it's our short sighted .35 chums...
    26 Apr 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, I expect both flippers and Quercus. I am not surprised at the action so far. I doubt you are either. There is a lot of shares to shake loose, and I expect this all the way up.

     

    Anthlj - You are correct, but after the testing that has been done, I expect no major failure, just minor tweaking to the parts. These first few retro-fits will be slow and take time until NS gets the process perfected. This sale is a much more solid commitment that anything else we have seen. We can't go from a few million in sales to a billion $$$ overnight. Market acceptance is what was missing, now you have it.

     

    Bang : I agree with the easy money is what is to come. People who waited for a catalyst now have it. Let's see how fast they take advantage of it.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Could we have a 4 million share day today? That would be a good bite into the churners ...
    26 Apr 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Stock down and I'm buying again. Amazing to see people selling into this news.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Really amazing is right. This was the confirmation we've all been looking for.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Well, we just filled the gap in the first 90 minutes, lol.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • With over 1,340,000 divided by 2 shares exchanged in a bit more than an hour, we've got to acknowledge that the news did get some attention. But, like a few other Axionistas present here, I can't help but to be a bit disappointed at the price action. I can easily recognize that it will go up eventually but after all this waiting and finally the confirmation that we are on the right track, I wouldn't have thought things would unfold quite this way.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • I thought I was getting a good deal at .45.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Just got some more at .429
    26 Apr 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Filled some at $0.415, 1/2 penny above what I had targeted a few weeks back.

     

    Will be trying for more at that level or better.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: 10:26:14 140 trades, buy 418,400, sell 751,280 ratio 1:1.8, worsening.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • I put in a bid for 40 cents. With the way the stock is ratcheting around today, I might get lucky on a market sell.

     

    Selling pressure remains, but from today forward, I'll consider it more like a nuisance dog pulling at my trouser cuff.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Wow! I got my order filled just that quick. Five minutes!

     

    Trade went off @ 10:55:29, 6,000 fat fingered shares now in the fold.
    26 Apr 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mine at 40.1 cents not filled yet. I had not thought today a lurker's day.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Added another chunk at $0.415 - felt lucky and got two more at $0.4111.

     

    If this *doesn't* break the trend my charts have been suggesting and we do hit *0.39* I'll add chunk more. If it breaks the trend and starts the grind up I want to see develop, I'll still be happy as a pig in $h*t.

     

    These, BTW, are *not* trading blocks - those are still held.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • This invertebrate grinned as he snapped up a block of 0.41 in the bottom feeding frenzy.

     

    My Schwab screen says volume = "1,722,625 Above Avg." as of 11:03AM.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    I've had a GTC in at .4 since 11th April. Not a bite. What is your secret?
    26 Apr 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj: I offered up my best answer I could figure in the next APC. This APC was out of order for a stitch of time.
    26 Apr 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • I agree Maya. Unless there is bad news or the market takes a major hit, it should be ratcheting up from here. Absent those two things, this is our buying opportunity at this level. I'm putting in bids at the sell price .40. earlier and .41 and they are filling my orders. It takes a while, on a 15K order, they will buy 4K, then 2K, then fill the order, it takes about 15 minutes. Then, I'll think about all my shares at $1.00 and place another order. I need to restrain myself.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Added more AXPW at my buy target $.42...
    26 Apr 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Added at .421. Can't believe I added. I just added last week to super-way beyond my limits.

     

    Now, I have to go find something else to sell to balance me out.

     

    The volume spike should get the attention of traders. We're 6 times average daily volume at 11.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • I already sold my favorite stock to buy more axion. Someone has to STOP me!!!
    26 Apr 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • 1.872,200 shares traded now....this is not bad. May make my last buy soon.

     

    I expect the bottom to be in soon, (if not already)...any follow up news from whoever/whenever should begin the grind up that HTL wants.

     

    I love volume, it will take Quercus and weak flippers out sooner.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • I am wondering how many of the recent big buyers from the equity financing believe in "...sell in May and go away...".

     

    The ready sellers appear numerous and eagerly waiting for any bump from good news.
    26 Apr 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » oooops --------------------->
    Excitement got the better of me...

     

    Congratulation to Axion Power, Axionista's and Axionator's!

     

    This way to the next instablog
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    ------------------->
    26 Apr 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
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