Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
  • Axion Power Concentrator 93: April 27, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries  182 comments
    Apr 27, 2012 2:19 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order for PbC® Batteries

    NEW CASTLE, Pa., April 26, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International Inc (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead­-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced that it has received an order from Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE:NS) for PbC batteries for use in a battery-powered locomotive. Axion Power said this first $400,000 purchase order is part of a $475,000 total purchase order, that will be used in the commissioning of Norfolk Southern's NS-999. The total purchase order will be shipped and deployed in the next 90 - 120 days. To date, this is the largest single PbC battery order that Axion has received. No further details were disclosed.

    Axion Power Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "We have been working with Norfolk Southern for two and a half years, and we are very pleased that this first hybrid 'switcher' yard locomotive, to be run completely on PbC batteries, will soon be in service. We have been moving on a parallel development path with respect to supplying batteries for the first NS 'over the road' locomotive. This larger, more powerful, unit will require approximately twice the number of batteries as those to be shipped for the yard 'switcher' locomotive. High-performance PbC batteries are ideally suited for hybrid locomotive applications due to their high charge acceptance, fast charge and discharge capabilities (important in regenerative braking), and their inherent ability to equalize voltage when utilized in large string configurations."

    Granville continued, "Of course PbC batteries are also very stable and safe because of the close construct similarities they share with lead-acid batteries - a chemistry that has been safely deployed for more than a century. Unlike some of the batteries being used in various vehicular applications, PbC batteries operate safely at all temperatures; are 100% recyclable; and are priced substantially below the cost of some of the more highly publicized exotic battery chemistries. We feel these attributes are becoming more fully appreciated by our customer base in general, and by NS in particular. As for a strategic partner, you couldn't ask for one better than NS. We anticipate a long and mutually beneficial partnership as they move forward with their hybrid locomotive strategy."

    A yard switcher locomotive, or 'switcher', is used in a train yard to assemble and disassemble long trip over-the-road trains. Additionally it is used for the general movement of railroad cars around the rail yard.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated April 24)

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart on Concentrator Comments: updated April 24

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the charts.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz

    -----------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    This is a troll free zone. All disruptive comments and AUTHOR of such comments that violate Seeking Alpha's Terms of Use Agreement will be permanently removed and comments will be recorded in a separate Instablog.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (182)
Track new comments
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Latest comment from Bangwhiz
    ----------------------...
    The organizer for the May 1st Quarter Conference Call Questions is up and available. The last CC went well. Post your questions for the CC here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Apr 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2679) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all you do Bang to keep us all organized and informed!
    27 Apr 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mercy.I just hand out the sheet music - the group plays the instruments! On another note I wish I hadn't read your post about the puddle now grown into a very big lake. Then there was DRich's note about the possibility of another Special Sit's extravaganza. I wish people would quit pointing out the facts to me. Ignorance is so much more pleasant and stress free. :<D
    27 Apr 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    There is SO much high-risk capital sloshing about the world of finance that it's an ocean compared to our little pond. Just a matter of when, not if.
    27 Apr 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Is it just me, or does it feel like yesterday's positive news caused someone to spill water on our Mogwai who already ate after midnight?
    27 Apr 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • maxkilmachina
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Springer -> In a way the dip in stock makes sense. There are some who expected the NS order be larger.

     

    The relationship with NS is long term. Lab testing w/ PbC takes 2+ years and continuning, road testing with the NS-999 takes additional time, and 2014+ will be the larger orders.

     

    I'm sure there are some short-term investors who were taken back by the small size of the NS order.
    27 Apr 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    "the business is doing well, the stock isn't" really sums it up well. The whole alternative energy/emerging energy sector is being beaten like a dog right now ... Without mercy. I think we all had higher expectations for what "an order" from NS would mean, and less than half a mil over the next 120 days isn't that inspiring. Probably the only reason more people didn't sell on that news is because most of us are averaged in at a higher price than 43 cents. There is still plenty of promise in this company and someday, our investments will pay off. We will also benefit from the cyclical nature of a market that at present isn't focused on us. I wonder at this point whether some of this cyclical malaise is due to the upcoming election .... A Romney victory will favor existing technologies, and an Obama re- election alternatives.
    27 Apr 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    Lets face it...the long term holders are all scratching their heads trying to figure out why the price did not go up,,,,

     

    Even a novice like myself certainly expected once that great NS news was announced the price should have had a bigger closing price today. If you aren't worried you should be!!

     

    All those TA guys don't have an answer that doesn't sound like guessing to me ..imo. Again saying down the road this stock will explode, i think some concern should be shown here.

     

    map
    27 Apr 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... You say "long term holders are all scratching their heads trying to figure out why the price did not go up" & I say to you that you are wrong. As a long term holder, I understand why the stock is acting the way it is. The business is fine. Broken stocks don't stay that way unless the business gets broken also. No indication of that.
    27 Apr 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    DRICH.....So you are trying to tell me you EXPECTED the stock to actually drop once the long awaited NS deal was announced??

     

    Sorry, i don't buy it !!!
    28 Apr 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... Grow up & learn what you own. I don't believe I "EXPECTED" the share price to drop on the NS news. NS was a known event, not Customer No. 1 and is just the next step in a well behaving, developmental business. I don't expect the stock to do anything different than it has been. I'd like (and rather expect) it to leak up from here. I'd be surprised if it crashes but certainly didn't expect much more than a short bump ... if that ... on NS.

     

    You can buy what you want. Might I suggest something else.
    28 Apr 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    DRICH

     

    No need to get testy over this..Unless your feeling pressure.My portfolio will be monitored by me, i really don't need your help . But thanks anyway!!!
    28 Apr 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    The size of the order is no surprise. The fact that NS planned to buy the switcher first and then the OTR has been anticipated for ages. NS has over 1500 switcher locomotives so there is plenty of prospective future business with NS and other railroads on switcher's alone. The OTR market is another huge market. NS needs operating experience to confirm what the models and test programs indicated. It is simple prudence. With 24,000 locomotives in the US alone Axion could become a 100M dollar business in the railroad sector alone. Then there is the rest of the world's railroads.

     

    As for stock performance I will be the first to admit disappointment. However, there is plenty of time for Axion to make further inroads in a wide range of markets and customers. While I would have liked a taste of victory sooner versus later I am NOT concerned. More like chagrined.

     

    In poker - and the stock market - things don't always turn out like you anticipated. You just move on a little older and a little wiser. Just means I can continue buying at low prices. Fine with me. I'm in this game for 20X returns, not a 10-20 cent price rise. Yeah, I was surprised at the poor stock performance after the NS buy, but not the least concerned.

     

    I and others commented long ago that with the stock awash with people who bought cheap shares the road up is going to be a bloody battle more like a knife fights in an alley than a comfortable ride to glory.
    27 Apr 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    BANG

     

    That is exactly my point. ALL WERE REJOICING after they received the email stating the sale, Not one person stated anything negative, and all of a sudden the stock starts to drop and silence fell, questions were asked, and now some posters are actually stating they expected this ??

     

    Some even bought at 45 cents and admitted it. So when some one says they are the least bit concerned i question that !!

     

    JACK, I am with you. When a micro company announces something major and the stock doesn't move north it is only normal to start asking why.
    28 Apr 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    MAP,
    The only people that see the NS sale as a milestone event are here and at Axion. To the rest of the world it is a blurb about a small sale by a small company, not worth noticing. To us it represents a new chapter in the company story, going from R&D towards commercialization. It is big (for us).
    28 Apr 2012, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    STILL

     

    I though Maya POSTED quite a few places where the NS sales was mentioned and we had tremendous volume that day. So i respectfully disagree that others are following the stock as well. I know it is a start for us , But not so sure how big yet. Hoping to see many more sales before the third quarter.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    MAP,
    I like the management and the technology of Axion. I have no doubt that we will grow and expand, but I don't really expect to take the stock out of the sock drawer for another 18-24 months before I make any decisions. Slow growth isn't a bad thing and coming from R&D to commercialization is usually a slow process with milestones along the way. With a penny stock I don't follow TA or fundamentals (no offense meant HTL), I just look at the management, the potential for the product in the market and the company financials. Then I wait for a designated amount of time to decide if I get out or let it ride. The patent office is full of patents that penny stock companies filed before they failed, I like the Axion story and the management and accept that penny stocks are high risk (so was GM). Passing this milestone did take some of the risk off. I think my short term (18-24 month) expectations will be met. I hope it will be sooner, but I will go with what I think rather than what I hope. No use setting myself up for an anxiety attack.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    STILL

     

    Thanks for the explanation, appreciate it

     

    map
    29 Apr 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree with MAP and Jack.

     

    We all know it should have gone through 60c, the day of the announcement. I am tired of the same old "just wait until so and so happens" and when it does there is absolutely zero movement

     

    I also don't care about chemistries , battery tech etc, and am just looking to see this stock do something after 10 years of hiding in the shadows, while they prove up the product.

     

    My worry is getting to the point where big investors can buy in - $2.00 and above, I really cannot see how we are going to get there if the market treats good news, consistently in this manner
    29 Apr 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    "We all know it should have gone through 60c, the day of the announcement."

     

    What a crock. We all knew the order was coming. The world knew the order was coming. But just like the green goat we don't all know if the PbC will perform in the locomotive.

     

    Those that believe in the product feel the stock will rise. Exactly when is up to the market. Many feel they know the ins and outs of the market. To my knowledge no one does.

     

    Many , including me, hoped it would rise. I still believe it will rise. I think the new floor will be $1.25. But that does not make it so, eliminate the risk of failure, financing, or fanciful management behavior. It simply is the belief of one shareholder.

     

    All shareholders that think there is some magic crystal ball that gives dates of micro-caps rising, really should buy large cap stocks that are more subject to normal market gyrations.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    JR

     

    Be careful in what you say. Although we both agree the price should have moved maybe those who owned these micro companies before know more than us. That is what i am now hoping for

     

    map
    29 Apr 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I did a little spreadsheet analysis of Axion's stock price history and during the period from the Dec 7 2011 to Jan 4 2012 9,808,400 shares were bought at prices ranging from 25 to 34 cents. Cut that in half if its a double count and you get nearly 5 Million cheap shares in the market as of Jan 4.

     

    Then take the period from the 7th of Feb 2012 to today and you have 15,593,200 shares bought at prices ranging from .37 cents to 47 cents with the vast bulk of those at .39 to .43 cents. Cut the volume in half and its 7.75 million shares roughly.

     

    Then throw 28 Million more cheap shares in the pot at .35 cents. In total you wind up with around 40 million shares at prices between .25 cents and essentially .43 cents.

     

    Reduce the total of 40 million by whoever sold during the January run up to .62 cents which was 14,594,900 shares - eliminate the double count and you get 7.25 million shares. Subtract this number from the 40 million shares at prices mostly between .25 and .43 and you still have roughly 33 million cheap shares floating around.

     

    Obviously not all those shares are going to be in the hands of "true believers" who will hold the stock like I will come hell or high water. It is going to take a pretty good while before this stock can sustain a price rise like the run in January.

     

    I expect more good news out of Axion this year will slowly whittle the sellers out of this glut, but it won't be anytime soon. It is ok with me. I still have plenty of buying to do and with only a little powder available each month I have to buy fairly small amounts. Long term I expect success, so the current price issues are only beneficial to me now. I hope there has been sufficient good news by the 1st Quarter 2013 to get the price up, or the next capital raise (and the circumstances surrounding it) may put the stock back in the same circumstances.

     

    Axion reminds me of the movie Rocky. Not many people are giving this stock much of a chance but Axion is fighting their guts out to build their company in spite of the odds and the difficulties and landing some solid punches. I find it exciting although I am only participating as a stockholder. I remember the first five years of my last business. Living below the poverty level and living on the shop floor sometimes for a few months off and on. Then it hit BIG. The key is persistence and lots of hard, focused smart work - and boy has Axion shown just exactly that character trait in spades.
    27 Apr 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    BW: excellent comments. In mindset, we are remarkably similar - "sweat equity" offsets lots of other shortcomings.

     

    In my most recent case, one of my accounts has outperformed the S & P 500 over the last 6 months - my very first confirmation that learning how the POS we call "The Market" works was worth the effort.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Everybody keeps talking about the shares that went off in the market at low prices as if they're somehow part of the short-term supply.

     

    It's absurd.

     

    Let's get real for a minute. The only people who even know Axion exists are the Axionistas, lurkers and fence sitters who've been reading my work for years. Nobody else had a reason to buy when the price was falling off a cliff. There may be some who are willing to trade non-core positions for lunch money, but substantially all the stock that's traded hands since mid-November is sitting in somebody's sock drawer and won't see the light of day until the buyer get's his home run or gives up in disgust.
    28 Apr 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    What JP said - co-sign.

     

    Considering the rate of growth and share-purchasing by Axionistas, in about a year Axionistas should own the majority of the company.

     

    I should add, I am nuts.
    (see metroneanderthal's post above)
    28 Apr 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    JP, what's your theory for who's selling now for 42 cents after the NS purchase.
    28 Apr 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The only people I can see who have an incentive to sell at $.42 are a fraction of the buyers in the recent direct public offering who think a short-term profit of 20% is adequate for the risk they assumed when they made the investment. It's not an investing strategy that I understand, but I do know that it exists among the well-heeled types who are properly wired into solid enough deal flow that they can turn their cash three or four times a year.

     

    Street investors are an entirely different animal and they generally come in one of two species – short term traders who jump on the latest hot stock and live or die by the greater fool theory, and long term holders who agonize over their buying decisions and agonize just as hard over their selling decisions.

     

    I write a lot, but I don't write much that appeals to short-term traders. My focus is firmly fixed on a three to five year horizon and there just isn't much in anything I do that looks at time frames under a year.

     

    If you buy the theory that most of the people who bought stock when the market was a mess did so because they understood the story, then you also have to believe that they're not interested in flipping for quarters.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP. I tend to agree with your view. The rest of the selling could be disheartened investors throwing in the towel, people who need money NOW, and short-term traders moving in and out of the stock, people selling portions of the shares for a profit and/or playing substantially on the houses money, etc. Would make sense to me.

     

    Norfolk Southern was the only "known" near term catalyst. The stock rose to .46, started faltering, and people trading on that catalyst grabbed what profit they could as the price fell and headed for the exits. That would have been my trading pattern on most of my positions during QE2. .
    28 Apr 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion is largely a retail stock and most individual investors have day jobs that have a nasty habit of interfering with avocations like trading.

     

    The news hit and the sellers were locked and loaded. The only way that happens is if there's a ton of GTC orders in the market or you have a professional managing the selling process.

     

    I think the most recent spate of selling was in-artful because a little more patience would have let the stock run and perhaps break out. Notwithstanding my opinion about the art, the discipline has been impressive.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your assessment totally JP. The selling has been managed very professionally. I don't think a lot of it is retail sellers - the vast majority of April's sales have clearly been managed professionally. I've been thinking about the selling all month and the conclusion is inescapable.

     

    However, I still think the stock price's appreciation is going to be hand to hand fighting until Mr. Market notices the stock. No matter how committed a stockholder maybe as the price rises the temptation to take profits off the table and let the rest ride will be overwhelming for some, particularly when the stock hits between .60 cents and $1.00.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but the artless part is most significant to me - I agree totally.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Based on John's turnover rates and the prices of the stocks he listed, and excluding Aone and Xide, it looks like something happens between the 2 and 3 dollar range. Of course, its a small data set.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since both Exide and A123 were in the $6 to $10 range within the last 12 months, I don't think it's price range thing. It seems to be more closely related to the public profile of the issuer.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    However, there is the oddity, or better, uniqueness of the Axionistas in that we have all created a quasi-lock up box of our own. Millions upon millions of shares are locked up for the long term with "elephant hunting" goals of returns in the hundreds of percent range, or, with some of us who got in late, and have average prices of below forty cents, in the 1000% return range.

     

    If/when we do land a whale or two with the same sort of goals, then turnover rate may actually and eventually have the small chance to drop as the price rises. Especially after the whales are finished accumulating.

     

    Though my church pew theory (or, maybe a better theory would be "seat licenses") has been put to rest for a while, I think it will eventually still apply, only now the church has to be bigger, because of the 28,000,000 new shares -- I expect several million of those new shares are already in the Axionistas' fold.

     

    In my own little teeny tiny world, I expect to not sell any shares until I see the price more than double, at which time I "may" sell off about 50,000 shares, that is if, as JP once teased me, that the price is skyrocketing so fast, I can't sell until I see price stabilization at some higher level.

     

    With the NSC order, the next offering now more than ever, will likely be for adding production capability, than for walk'n around or ongoing concern money.

     

    It's real easy to dream of a quick 200% pop some week. That dream, to me, is more alive than ever. But, the time frame of that dream has also been pushed out.
    28 Apr 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    BANG

     

    Comparing Rocky to Axion is getting a little carried away imho....I also believe in the long run the company will do fine. But i dare anyone to say they expected the stock to do what it did.. I have been reading posts for a long time and everyone was salivating for NS to make a move, they did and the stock didn't!!!
    28 Apr 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    To many it was just a one-locomotive order. "Big deal." Not really the kind of event many have been waiting for. But most of us here know that it means much more. So give it a while longer. The world will catch up.
    28 Apr 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    MAP> You've made your point several times. Most of us expected the stock to rise on news of the order. It didn't. JP, LT, HTL, me and plenty of others have noodled why. The majority of opinions was that it was "flippers" from the recent .35 cent capital raise, plus in my opinion any other number of sellers for various reasons. None of us think it means a damn thing to the long term future of the stock. The rest of us have moved on. Monday is a new day.

     

    As for me comparing Axion to Rocky you have to go back to the beginning. Have you read this article? "Against All Odds - Batteries International Feature Article about Axion's history and challenges" http://bit.ly/IgjJVT

     

    Damn few companies could have survived a breech birth beginning like Axion did in its first few years. The story is titled "Againt All Odds." Very similar to Rocky Balboa in my humble opinion. Then having to raise capital in the middle of the worst American recession in 2009.

     

    I imagine you will find plenty of things in the future to concern you. You are focused on the wrong metrics. The company's progress independent of the stock price is all that matters now unless you are looking for an immediate profit. I've said all I've got to say to you for the rest of my life. Good luck with your investments.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    :-) I don't have any problem thinking the stories of "Rocky" and Axion Energy are somewhat analogous. But, I like a different analogy more and that analogy is "Clean Tech" and this year's Republican Primaries. Lots of wannabies with multiple candidates scoring some wins and and all incurring some losses and fewer candidates left standing as time passes. I think Axion Power International will be standing as primary winner at the end of the day.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D-Inv. Take their beginning, throw in the 2009 capital raise, then the effort to develop the robotic negative electrode line, followed by "going concern" statements and the 2012 capital raise and you have a company that has been fighting uphill most of its life. No help from DOE, a predatory XIDE with "onerous" terms, and having to manage every last cent like a person on a small pension.

     

    The Rocky comparison is a little over the top. At the same time, the struggle Axion has had to make to reach the point where a first tier company bought their battery has been monumental taken collectively from day 1 to this past week. Not many companies would have survived it IMHO. Having had a taste of success I don't think they are going to drop the ball and blow it now. I can only wish Axion good luck going forward, hoping for the best, and letting God take care of the rest. I am sure Axion will help Him all they can.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    BW: Excellent. I think it's important for folks to distinguish between a broken stock vs. a broken company.

     

    ATM we have the former and no signs of the latter.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2012, 06:22 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    BANG..

     

    Sorry you got insulted by my concerns. I will miss your comments directed for me. Good luck with your purchases as well.

     

    map
    29 Apr 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    DRich... yes, there's a breach of logic, but I don't think it can be bridged by all.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Jon Springer ... Then someone needs to explain the illogical behavior to me. Spelling ... well, I'm hopeless on that topic.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    DRich... my point was I think you understand what's going on quite well but you and others are trying to provide reasonable explanations (a bridge over a breach in logic) to one of TM9's cousins above. The logic utilized by this family is not something I can explain, but I can recognize it in the same way I can recognize someone on the street who is better suited talking to my namesake Jerry, on his TV show, than to me.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Oh come now. I used to expect big companies in the S&P500 to rise on good news and drop on bad news. It didn't take long for me to realize there are other forces out there, but it SEEMS like that should be how the market works.

     

    In penny stocks it's an order of magnitude worse. It's not just about good or bad news, one seller or buyer (even a really small one on a slow day) can drive the market alone. The Market Maker can push the market any way they want, and traders magnify any buying or selling pressures.

     

    Right now, we have more sellers than buyers at the current price so the price goes down. I suspect this is because somebody big wanted out and saw their chance to move more shares on the recent news.

     

    Alternately, it could just be that the scale of the news attracted no major buyers and we're just seeing a massive increase in trading.

     

    I'm not sure how to tell the difference, so I focus on fundamentals.
    28 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I would venture to say that had this initial order been for 50 million dollars instead of 475K we would probably be looking at a much different price right now. I bet most here would agree. Such an order would have lifted virtually all uncertainty and would be tantamount to *guaranteeing* Axion's future and prosperity. In such an environment, the intrinsic value of our 40 cent shares would instantly increase to several multiples of that, and the price would likely soon rise to meet that value. As we all know however, that didn't happen. The actual order was only 1% of that. It's finally an actual order yes, and for most of us here, we know (or think we know) very well exactly what it means. We here know it's merely the beginning. We here appreciate the signficance. But I think the rest of the world sees only a paltry 400K, shrugs and says 'meh' and just goes back to sleep... In short, to us the informed, it's a *very*big deal, to the vast majority of casual observers and even to some of the observant fence-sitters, it's just underwhelming, if not disappointing. Everyone's been waiting all this time for this big news and here it finally is and yet it seems a fizzle. Not really that surprising imho. Again, had the order been big enough, then I think we would have seen more reaction / excitement / price action. As it is, it's excellent news for what it means down the road, just not so much for what it brings right now.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    Hi 86,
    Unless there is a built up stock of carbon electrodes that could be sent to another AGM battery builder I would be concerned with Axion having to ramp up too far too fast. That would be costly, I would rather have a measured build up where profits paid for the capital to expand instead of having to get loans for equipment to meet orders. JMHO
    28 Apr 2012, 04:04 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    SD, I hear what you're saying. I just threw out the number as an illustrative hypothetical. Obviously an order of that magnitude would bring with it a whole new set of challenges...high quality challenges to be sure, and ones we all wish for them to have to deal with someday, but still...

     

    As far as comparing the virtues of a measured ramp versus a sudden large order, I'd say that's up for debate. I would venture to say that a dramatically large order would probably get more attention and impact the share price more steeply and quickly than would a slower build-out. But both would be good situations.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    48: I have disagree in this regard - "recency". One or more larger orders widely spaced have a short "memory shelf life". PPs behvior reverts quickly to what it was before.

     

    A steady barrage of smaller announcements that encourages folks to conclude that this has become a sustainable and on-going trend keeps the stock fresh in the memory, encourages some analysis like NPV, and raises confidence and the desire to "be long of it" (thanks Dennis Gartmann).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I certainly see that point. Though I'd also say that while regular morsels might do for a while, what the market really wants to get its teeth into is meat...
    28 Apr 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    There is no question I thought a positive market reaction to a NS purchase order was likely, but that it was also possible such an event was already factored into market price. My perception of a likely positive share price reaction was due to the notion that a NS purchase would be a clear commercial sale with no dependency on government financing or special tax treatment (that I am aware of). Instead, the market has apparently interpreted the news as BAU - battery sales for another round of testing. A follow on order from NS (even for over-the-road locomotive trial) subsequent to some period of operating experience with the 'switcher' locomotive would probably yield different results.

     

    Given other market uncertainties at this time (European financial stability, economic outlook; sell in May and go away; etc.) and the pervasive low profile and unattractiveness of "penny stocks" to large numbers of investors, I am interpreting the relative stability of share price as quite positive.
    28 Apr 2012, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    D-INV

     

    Thank you for being honest about you perception of the share price. I also agree with all the markets manipulation this stock still seems to hold up well. Lets just see what happens WHEN the major market correction comes, and it is coming...Remember this is an Election year!!!

     

    map
    28 Apr 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I guess it's basically this: Until we definitively hit the definitive knee in the hockey stick (and we will), until then it's bound to feel like all there's ever gonna be is the shaft...
    28 Apr 2012, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Poul Brandt posted the following on 6 April.
    "Have you noticed the number of followers of the APH has jumped from 68 a few days ago to now 74.
    It took weeks to grow from 67 to 68. (If my memory serves me well)..."

     

    We are now at 92 followers, and wish I would have checked number previous to NS announcement. Although certainly not overwhelming numbers in absolute terms, the growth rate has been substantial this month and it appears interest is being generated.
    28 Apr 2012, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    84.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    27 minutes later, 93.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    On a different tack, we have "345 people get AXPW.OB articles and Market Currents by email alert. " http://tinyurl.com/cup...
    29 Apr 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    will be 2,000 in no time
    29 Apr 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    94
    29 Apr 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    re: Disappointment ... Everyone is disappointed that the price did not hold gains. Here is my take, and of course I was disappointed too but I think there are more simple reasons for it.

     

    1. Supply/Demand..I put together the same numbers that Bang did above and came to a similar conclusion in the past week before the announcement in order to come up with a time line for me only. JP has also mentioned the Supply/Demand inflection point. Bang's numbers are just approximate and could change fast if the right things happen. Bottom line is I think he is right, because I have already ran the numbers and came to the same conclusion on my own. There are about 50 million shares bought cheap, and as TB, Jon, and others say about the global crisis's, negative popularity of clean energy, penny stocks out of favor (this may be changing now) , sell in May & go away,.....With all this why wouldn't a prudent investor that bought at .25-35 sell 50-80% of his shares and play with it on the house money for a while? I don't know about you guys, but doubles (or close to it) would be tempting to me. .. We have already redistributed part of the 50 million shares, So we need volume to work off or redistribute about 30 million more shares at these prices to long term holders to fix this. WE got started this week.

     

    2. One order is not enough to bring in the big boys yet. This will change as AXPW shows up in the next 120 days in more articles. This will happen when NS is actually filming the 999 working. The home product won't hurt either, and another big order will help.

     

    3. It was somewhat factored in already, that is why we didn't go below the .35 new issue price. Don't blame these new guys or any axionista's who take 20% and run, they will be buyers again for the next capital raise (and this is another anchor) but It makes capital guaranteed if we need it.

     

    4. Quercus... No matter how you spin it, they are a drag or an "anchor" as someone put it. Even though they are orderly with their 10% daily, they make it difficult to climb even a penny or two / week when we have days like Friday with only 200,000 shares traded. When they are gone, this changes even with current metrics.

     

    5. AXPW is & has been a long term investment. We still have two more hurdles to get home free, they are more SALES & ONE more capital raise that every one know is coming (wonder what would happen if we landed a big order or signed a license agreement that did not require that capital?).

     

    6. If you drew a time line on volume average this since the new issue, Quercus being gone, other sales down the road, I think it would all play out together by year end. It's like "multiple confirmations" for a positive outcome. I ran this by a couple of close friends that told me I was "too conservative" that when it changed it would be fast, for whatever reason. I want to be on that rise, not buying into it.
    28 Apr 2012, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Nice analysis LT. Just remember that not all 30 Million shares bought cheap will be for sale at bargain prices. I would bet over 1/2 of those won't be for sale until the revenue quits rising.
    28 Apr 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: I'd like to believe that, but ...

     

    2/1 volume 2.55M
    4/26 volume 2.35M

     

    I think it's hard to imagine that such volume on 4/26 came just (mostly?) from miscellaneous retail investors taking profit. Add in the higher volumes (totaling about 1.2M) 4/2-4/3 when high hit $0.4549.

     

    And we already have strong suggestion, based on volume 2/2-2/9, that a lot of the new issue buyers "flipped" their shares immediately.

     

    I reluctantly conclude, as I suggested below, that the crew that bought the recent new issue were qualitatively not the same as prior buyers.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2012, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Its also likely that this pool of investers (even those who might not have sold all their .35 shares just yet) will be getting another phone call this week (or any week) from the same sort of middlemen that set up this deal...

     

    And need to sell shares to plow them right back into another deal with a prospect for a quick 20-30% profit.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In years gone by, I used to assume that at least 20% of the shares sold in an offering like the one Axion did in February would flow back into the market within a couple months. It was very rare, however, to see more than 40% of well-placed shares come out in less than two years. The bizarre part is that investors in *placed* deals rely on the same kind of calculus.

     

    The old rule of thumb was that selling by direct placement investors, as a group, couldn't account for more than 10% of market volume without creating inordinate pressure on the price. So the last thing direct placement investors want is to be stuck in a deal where other investors push shares into the market too quickly.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    John: Makes sense. Its also human nature to expect others to "...do as I say, not as I do".
    29 Apr 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's always a few investors who go into a deal thinking "most of the other buyers are going to be longer term holders so there will be room for me to sneak in late and bail early for a quick hit."

     

    I was delighted to see Axion trade 77.7 million shares last year, but once you eliminate the double count the number of shares that moved from the hands of sellers to the hands of buyers was closer to 39 million.

     

    There were 26 million new shares sold in the offering.

     

    If you're part of a group of investors who could theoretically account for 2/3 of the prior year's selling activity, you don't want flippers in the deal any more than the issuer does.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I would tend to agree with you...unless a big board is involved. Is it too early to begin negotiations/or planning for a listing on a larger exchange?
    29 Apr 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Prisoner's Dilemma?

     

    http://bit.ly/sZh0cE
    30 Apr 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think it's more variable than that because placement agents for these kinds of deals closely monitor post-closing behavior and investors who step too far out of line don't get invited to invest in the next deal. Since flipping is only beneficial if you have great access to deal flow, it's not an easy discipline to maintain over the long term.
    30 Apr 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Sartre... The Wall http://bit.ly/Jrnh4D
    30 Apr 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Axion was an R&D stage company that just confirmed it is a viable commercial manufacturer of a disruptive technology through the single order from a 1st tier OEM that had been testing their battery for over 2 years -- order size is irrelevant for this stage of a company. Think Bio-tech passing phase III trials.

     

    An immense portion of the risk for holding this stock just got eliminated. If investors are worried about the size of the order they have no idea what stage company they were holding or the amount of risk they already had on the table -- perhaps a result of JP bringing this stock to the attention of so many diverse investors, who would never normally look at a micro-cap R&D stage company and believed they were getting a commercial manufacturer for pennies on the dollar. I do not believe this was the majority of buyers by any means.
    28 Apr 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Jak, exactly. For those who know what it (this order) means, it means a lot...
    28 Apr 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ryan Stanton
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Fellow Axionistas and grid storage enthusiasts:

     

    I'm curious about what's on your mind regarding the current and future state of the grid storage market; the kinds of things that Pike / Lux don't address in their reports. I'm attending two industry events next week in DC (ESA's annual meeting and a military microgrid conference) and have the opportunity to talk/meet with many of the leading companies in the storage space (Axion included).

     

    To get a good pulse on the industry from the "inside," I plan on polling folks while I'm there, but I need your help to come up with the right questions. So...
    1) As investors, what do you think are the biggest obstacles that need to be overcome or removed to grow the deployment of grid storage (technical, economic, regulatory, etc.)?
    2) Conversely, what do you think are the biggest opportunities for the grid storage market?

     

    Anyone else here attending these events? PM me!

     

    -Ryan
    28 Apr 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    1. I think the biggest obstacle is to establish a price for the electricity the utilities have to pay the "users". In their defense, they don't need to pay twice. In our defense (and Viridity) they need to pay a fair price.
    2. Utilities need to allow Viridity to connect to their networks with less hassle. The fact that PJM seen the software as a "hacker" can be solved very easy....it needs to be expedited. Utilities will use this to slow down adoption because of #1 above. Just a flimsy excuse to delay things.

     

    3. Opportunities abound everywhere....every factory and major user. Home owners too, in areas where outages are frequent or power is nonexistent and some have built solar installations because utilities would not run a mile of line for one home.

     

    4. Utilities/Gov't should help fund these areas if possible thru financing like the energy efficacy upgrades to homes (a program like paying for new insulation over time with monthly payments added to the electric bill by the utilities) The public can't afford $5000-10,000 out of their pocket all at once. Factories could use an incentive too.
    5. Advantages abound, load leveling, grid backup storage, etc.
    28 Apr 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    A thought from the uninformed. Seems like the biggest obstacle might be the folks who provide the peek power who would lose revenue if grid storage was made real. They could also be on the opportunity side. Stating the obvious? I know but in my limited reading I haven't heard anyone talk about what happens to these folks...
    28 Apr 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Ryan,
    I start getting confused about what the utilities want to do, versus what they are being forced to do. I would like to know where the utilities see opportunities for grid based storage that will result in cost savings for them and if they are actively purchasing/planning to purchase grid based storage, or are waiting for further regulations, and what is their timeframe for doing so.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Everything I've heard and read says the utilities will be the last on board because they're so heavily regulated. The real action will be at the power producer and power user level, with the T&D companies coming in only under duress.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    Ryan: I would like to know the reasons the military is interested in microgrid systems.

     

    The obvious one is the ability to keep local power when a more remote power supply or transmission link is removed from service, for whatever reason.
    But what other reasons are there? What is their thinking on the entire generation, storage, transmission concepts? If they have a list of "points" I would love to see them.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    siliconhillbilly, I'm not a military expert, but my understanding is that you're right on -- it's a concern over remote power supply or transmission being removed from service. However you may have missed the obvious "other reason" -- that they're actively planning to deal with combat in which power generation and transmission will be a major military target.

     

    Similarly, they're very interested in alternate sources of fuel and have been putting a lot of money into biofuels. It's not because they particularly care about renewable energy to save the planet, they are trying to reduce the risks involved in a global war where fossil fuel sources could be cut off or destroyed.

     

    When the military spends money on something involved with energy, you can usually find a tactical or strategic advantage in its application during a major war.
    28 Apr 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    > SHB a couple of thoughts for consideration. At the smallest level, one might think of a microgrid as applicable to platoon size forces, or a field command center. Beyond "grid" applications, energy storage capabilities and alternative energy sources offer considerable lessening of risk to energy supply chain vulnerability and logistic force casualties.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2232) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to emphasize LT's Point #4. The biggest impediment to residential storage adoption is financing. SolarCity, et al, it well aware of this issue and thus, have a financing option which let directly to expansion.

     

    This is America, if you provide a financing conduit, the buyers will show up en masse.
    29 Apr 2012, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz
    I agree.
    "An immense portion of the risk for holding this stock just got eliminated".
    Now We just have to add a dose of patience.
    Have a good week end all AXIONISTAS!!!
    Now I am waiting JP article.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Positives: Even though disappointment seems to prevail the past couple of days, AXPW is quietly moving forward at a much faster pace this year with new markets and products to fill these needs.

     

    1. Sale to NS was a huge positive. No other way to spin it. It took me a long time to understand when the internet came along that big corporations/utilities move slow, at their timing, their pace, and budget. NS is going to reduce fuel by 10% or more by using many fronts - biofuel, higher efficiency engines, and PbC battery loco's. AXPW is a part of this.

     

    2. New "SYSTEMS" ... I can't stress how important that a system like the PowerCube with it's own BMS and a simple, portable "plug in interface. It makes it more than just a "battery". Battery storage Systems for:
    -- Zero Energy Buildings,
    -- the new Home product coming out,
    -- oil rig units,
    --Grid storage projects for the PC
    -- and who knows what else.
    I refer to John Deere, they started with just a "plow" now look at them.

     

    3. Auto's - we know they are in use now. Probably no announcement til another year from now. I want to focus on this a bit in reference to MXWL...the stock traded a high of $21.49 in March, it traded $8.81 on Friday. That's a 59% drop (almost 60)
    There has to be a reason they are not landing new contracts in auto like they were.... I think it is this:
    - We know the lead acid & AGM batteries just don't work
    - They could be listed as a direct competitor to AXPW, and think about Apple, when they go up, their suppliers follow and vise-versa. This is speculation, could something be in the labs that is going to replace their super capacitors in autos for Start/Stop soon? I think so....and PbC is the only viable option in reality.
    -- The EZ slowdown is really not a factor now for the stage that AXPW is in.
    --So, what would happen with a major auto win in the next 12 months? Could you handle $8-20 / share like MXWL was ?

     

    4. TG was much, much more upbeat & made a huge statement in the last cc...that AXPW will be "break-even" in 2013. He would not have said that if he did not know (barring a global meltdown) he had this in his pocket. Totally different perspective from even 6 months ago.
    ---- This means to us that "HUGE" things must happen in the next year. We are not talking just one sale, this requires a constant stream of product & systems out the door.
    ----- He also said that a second order for the OTR loco would be coming from NS...

     

    5. 12 MONTHS is not that long guys....it is the closest/shortest time frame at worst for AXPW shareholders. I could be way conservative here too. Rosewater has been way too quiet for a year now, Expect them to surface in Sept. at the home show and move forward with oil rigs at any time with demo's soon. I can't prove it, but I expect that AXPW is silently building these demo units now as we speak. Sales will probably follow the same path as the NS sale, but much quicker. It won't take 2-5 years of testing on these because it's already been done. They will test one or two units and if they work, they will order 100 of them (what would that do to the stock price). We are now leveraging the "systems" that I mentioned earlier. Why does Apple products sell? You "plug them in" & they work ! Every thing built around their iOS. (system)
    We don't want to be another XIDE and just compete on price for a drop in battery.

     

    The ONLY risk now is that the battery Fails, I agree with JP now that after 2-5 years of testing in a lab and prototypes...I do not believe it fails. TG stated that the PbC has "met or exceeded expectations" and done it's job in ALL tests. AXPW's part is now "done". The RR contracts alone will be worth more than we predict now.

     

    AXPW is closer than ever to stability and success today than ever before. Patience is required. Risk vs. Reward is the best it has ever been.

     

    28 Apr 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    An additional point or two to this discussion is that when the announcement comes from both Axion and the OEM (Norfolk or BMW), not just Axion, we will know that the transition from R&D to full commercial manufacturer is complete and the stock will move up.

     

    JAK, by the bye, from the medical analogy, this has really been Phase II, not Phase III. After successful Phase II trials which demonstrate an effective dose of drug, you go to Phase III where you need to increase your numbers to confirm this effect in a larger population without an increase in side effects. That is where Axion is. Their in vitro (laboratory string) tests have gone well. They are now going in vivo, live, and if these tests first in Switcher and then in OTR work well, then they will receive their NDA (new drug application) certification from the 'FDA'=NS. Timeline would be: if they will receive the new batteries in 90 days, we are in late July, testing for several months, order for OTR batteries (September) which will be filled faster, but will take several months of testing as well. So they are around 6-12 months away from that 'certification' depending on how much testing NS needs to do. The probability is that the large order from NS will come as part of their 2013 budget and probably occur after January during their new fiscal year IMO.

     

    I too bought more when the announcement came out at .44 and thought it would start trending up from there. I still think it will, but it will take time for the reasons above. This was very good news for Axion that I think will slowly work its way into the markets and it was also a very logical next step for NS to take to really make sure it works this time around. NDA's from the FDA can take 12 months from when filed and if you can get onto the fast track approval process, it can take 6 months. Axion is looking at ~8 months from here so pretty good from a 'drug' development point of view.
    28 Apr 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Excellent Gottliep, well said. More appropriate analogy and I appreciate that.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    GOTT

     

    I am a little confused. If you had this laundry list of reasons the stock still has a year to go, then why did you buy at 44 cents, stating you expected it to trend upward??

     

    It seems you are taking both sides of the argument to me. Again it seems guessing is going on. Which i guess is all anyone can do when you expect one thing and it does not happen...

     

    Just a newbie still breaking down your groups comments...nothing personal...

     

    map
    28 Apr 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Map, your comments are becoming argumentative, repetitive and disruptive. Please stop.

     

    Thank you.
    28 Apr 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3088) | Send Message
     
    gottlieb, I think you are still a bit too optimistic with your FDA study/analogy. With an order for a single locomotive, we are basically entering the first human clinical trial. Axion has done extensive "in vitro" and "animal trials", but this is the first "human" trial for a railroad application. Axion's "device" (think artificial hip joint) is expected to have a 10 year life; a six month trial is never unambiguous proof of a decade of useful service.

     

    The Axion purchase represented less than 0.05% of NS free cash flow - totally insignificant to them. A single customer bought a single sample, after years of thinking about it.

     

    Certainly, this is not bad news, but the relationship between Axion and NS has been known for years. I can understand why some shareholders are disappointed that this order was not ten times this size.

     

    I am confident Axion will be successful, but this individual transaction is just one more small step along the path to being hugely successful. Patience is hard.
    29 Apr 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Rick Krementz>

     

    With due respect you're wrong about the nature of the testing that's been done and what Axion and NS know about the PbC.

     

    The reason laboratory testing takes so long is that you can cram about four years of work equivalent in a single year of 24/7 lab work. When you do parallel testing in three laboratories for 2 years you end up with 24 years of equivalent experience. The vehicle testing is the last stage and its primary goal is to identify any issues you couldn't test for in the laboratory. The first version of a prototype may fail like the original NS 999 did in 2009, but subsequent versions rarely fail.

     

    For more detail, check the new article I posted today.
    29 Apr 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3662) | Send Message
     
    John do we know how long NS tested the AGM batteries (Odyssey brand?) back in 2009 before they tried them out in the field?

     

    I imagine this time around they were much more thorough however I'm still a little surprised that the 2009 lab results and the real world differed so much. Or maybe they just rushed it similar to the Green Goat of 2006/2007. http://bit.ly/ImsmPk
    29 Apr 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A September 2009 story in the Altoona Mirror talks about the genesis of the grant that funded the original NS 999 project – http://bit.ly/JV90hN – While not definitive, this story puts a two-year start-to-finish timeline and a $4 million price tag on the entire project including the locomotive rebuild.

     

    One of the comments to my latest article has a list of YouTube videos that span a significant period when the NS 999 was moving around a lot. While it may just have been show-off movement, the more likely explanation is that NS was testing something.

     

    They've apparently been testing the PbC for 2-1/2 years now and doing double redundant lab work at Roanoke, Penn State and Axion. I can't say whether the original project was rushed, but it's certain that it developed a whole lot of historical operating load data that served as the basis for the PbC testing.
    30 Apr 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    bazoooooooka:
    I replied to your post earlier but maybe due to it is too long or some SA technical problem, it never showed up. So I repost this and make it much shorter.

     

    From gossips of altoona in the early concentrators, I got the impression that NS did NOT understand what a string of battery means especially when it's under huge charge/discharge currents. What they were looking for in 2009 is probably cost, power density or cycles of life. It is not uncommon for electrical engineers to overlook the "little" problem of equally charging or some peculiar kind of battery unification problem only exsiting in a string configuration. My guess about NSs lack of design experience is confirmed by the link you provided above.

     

    'The challenges that arise in developing hybrid locomotives—such as power density and durability—are the same as in cars, but on a bigger scale because of the heavy load and harsh vibrations associated with rail freight, says Glen Merfeld, manager of GE Global Research's chemical energy systems lab.'

     

    You see? Some GE guy back in 2009 only mentioned power density, durability and vibration. And if the engineers do not know there is a problem ambushed somewhere, they probably wont bother design an expensive facility with 6 digits price tag to test it.

     

    This time, after almost three years extensive tests and a three location dedicated string performance test, I believe PbC stand a much better chance.
    30 Apr 2012, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Very good comparisons from JAK and gottliep. Puts it in perspective.
    28 Apr 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Thanks gottlieb, LT, jakurtz, and bangwhiz for your insights.
    28 Apr 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    LT:
    Gracias, Excellent review, excellent summary.
    Have a good day!!!
    28 Apr 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've spent a couple days searching for the data points I needed and collecting my thoughts on the NS switcher prototype. You can read it now on AltEnergyStock or wait for SA tomorrow morning. It's fun!
    28 Apr 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/KinuVE
    28 Apr 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Excellent article, JP.
    28 Apr 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    I like grabbing my cup-o-joe on sunday morning and reading your newest article but the anticipation is killing me and while Axion has *refined* my patience...I am just not sure I can hold out. To top it off Springer the devil dangles an easily accessible link...ohhh the trials.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Nice article John.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Well, if folks can't see the future, to some degree anyway, after reading that article, they likely shouldn't be making their own investment decisions, IMO.

     

    Nice succinct article - well done!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Nice article. Thanks

     

    Normal Class 1 rebuilds run about 100-150 per year under normal conditions. Skip to the bottom of this link

     

    http://1.usa.gov/IHQBVX

     

    I'm hoping that will double or triple with battery power installations because regulation will drive it but it could stay steady as is. A rebuild costs about $1.5M or 60% of new.

     

    http://bit.ly/JBwLtb
    skip to page 3
    http://bit.ly/IHQzNO

     

    As to what might speed the acceptance of battery power.
    [linked quote - http://bit.ly/JBwLtd]
    "A new requirement is that all locomotives complying with Part 1033 be equipped with idle reduction devices, either when delivered from the factory or before they are placed back into service after an overhaul. The engine must be shut down after a maximum 30 minutes of idle, and can be restarted only to protect the engine, to keep batteries charged or compressed air supplies up, or to accommodate crew comfort or safety."

     

    Relevant federal regs
    http://bit.ly/IHQBW1

     

    http://bit.ly/JBwK8w

     

    Things for the regional roads might go even faster than the Class 1 once proof of concept is demonstrated with NS999.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Springer, the nutty devil, if you please.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    >DRich. Interesting references. Thanks.

     

    DR> "I'm hoping that will double or triple with battery power installations because regulation will drive it but it could stay steady as is. A rebuild costs about $1.5M or 60% of new."

     

    I'm thinking economics will be a stronger driver if fuel consumption estimates in JP's latest estimates are close to the mark. 75% direct energy cost savings by elimination of diesel idle time is a large incentive. Another 5% - 10% energy cost savings is probable due to the conversion efficiency differentials between electric motors and diesel engines. Savings of $200K - $215K annually per switcher locomotive speaks with loud voice.
    28 Apr 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... There is no doubt about the rebuilding to more fuel efficient locos. Rebuilding to battery power/assist is a no-brainer because it is a goal 75 years in the making. Regulation might increase the speed and they are written to give the rails clear targets and reasonable timetables. There are only so many dollars for operations and the rails themselves are a mess and more important that the locos.
    28 Apr 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    JP> If all the stock that's traded since November is sitting in sock drawers how do you explain a NS order resulting in a 2M share day with falling prices? Flippers from the recent capital raise? Quercus was 200K of the selling. Where did the rest come from? There is a seemingly inexhaustible supply of shares at .42 cents (not really inexhaustible of course). Who do you think is selling all those shares at .42 cents?
    28 Apr 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The only explanation that makes sense to me is buyers in the recent raise selling for a 20% up. Big money investors that are wired into consistent deal flow can turn their cash three or four times a year. If the strategy is applied consistently and with great discipline it can be a great way to build wealth. Part of discipline is saying at the beginning "I'm using a 20% up and out strategy" and then sticking with it.

     

    I don't understand the mentality, but I do know that it exists.

     

    The $64,000 question is what percentage of the recent direct public offering went to flippers as opposed to investors. I count 20 million shares of trading since the offering, which equates to 10 million shares of selling. I little bit of the selling came from Quercus. The rest reduces the potential overhang.

     

    I'm confident that TG did everything in his power to limit participation by flippers, but they always seem to sneak in at some level. It would be very rare for the entire offering to end up in the hands of flippers.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I have an opinion:
    The owners of big money or the big companies (GE, ABB or SI) each day will be more outstanding of AXION (PbC), then at any time take the decision to invest a lot of money on AXPW and that day the price of the stock will rise and will go up and down no more.
    Meanwhile we (The AXIONISTAS) want to continue buying in range of 0.42.
    28 Apr 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    So many good comments here today. I'd like to add something not much mentioned (but was touched upon) to the discussion of price action.

     

    Regardless of Axion's accomplishments to-date, what is seen in the future, ... we are now, IMO, in a market substantially different from what I (and others?) had expected when I started investing.

     

    We are in a market of "trading mentality", not "investment mentality". To survive in this market, *many* will swing to 100% "trading" mode and many fewer, IMO, will remain in 100% "investment" mode. Some smaller percentage, like myself, will be in both modes to "compound" the benefits of price volatility to increase my "leverage" in investments and reduce "opportunity cost" associated with a "buy and hold" strategy.

     

    I believe the majority of shares moving in the market are being provided by those in pure "trading" mode and that these players, in terms of share volume, far outweigh shares in the market (whether being bought or sold) affected by the other types. I believe this will continue for some time.

     

    I don't ignore Quercus or SS and their ilk, but they've been adequately addressed and need not be reconsidered in my thoughts here.

     

    *If* I'm correct, it doesn't matter what the news is or when it occurs - price appreciation can not happen to the degree that us "investors" might anticipate. This is a variation on JP's "supply and demand" considerations, which are spot on, IMO, when considered in light of market sentiment (IOW - most action is currently by traders, not investors, increasing "supply" beyond what might be expected in a more traditional investing "market").

     

    I can not fault the trade-only folks, they do what they must to survive a highly volatile and manipulated (general) market. And in one sense, I thank them - my cost basis (including profits from the several times I've been totally in and totally out and, more recently, subsequent "block trades around a core") is ridiculously low.

     

    I just finished doing my wife's IRA account back through 2011 beginning (a couple more years to go) and I have, effectively, 9,133 "free" shares using a current price of $0.42. Of course, I purchased at prices much lower recently (before the last couple rounds of purchases cost basis not including those profits I mention was $0.31 - I've not recalculated recently, but should be somewhat higher now).

     

    For *me*, this is an appreciable number. More so if I view a future price in a multi-dollar range.

     

    My ultimate point is this. As investors we must consider *general* market sentiment and behavior (which is a build upon JP's supply and demand thoughts) as part of our DD and make decisions appropriate to each of us for our particular situation, risk tolerance, ...

     

    And that is why for *me* the charts I do are important. The market, at least for now, is a zero-sum game.

     

    I do not intend to "lose" to a market dominated by a non-investment behavior. That behavior, for *now*, is *my* tool. I am *not*, and will *never* be, "their" tool.

     

    A couple years down the road, all of us here will be "winners" regardless of our approach. There will be only a small matter of degree difference between us.

     

    And regardless of approach, degree of benefit, ... I will congratulate each and every one of us that has "weathered the war" and triumphed over an adversary of considerable means.

     

    But for now, "curb your enthusiasm", appropriate to the market, regarding anticipated price behavior on news if you want to avoid disappointment. "Expect the worst and hope for the best and you will not be disappointed".

     

    MHO, and hoping this is useful to some,
    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Nice insights HTL. I fit that pattern. I got my mother out of a mess averaged at .83 cents on 10,000 shares by averaging her down to .60 with roughly 5,000 shares bought during the December crash, sold them all (15000) at the top of the January run at .62, then rebought her 10,000 shares at an average price of .44. She wound up with virtually the same number of shares at almost 1/2 the average price.

     

    I considered buying X thousand shares of AXPW at say .40 and selling it at .46. I think all I needed was a 3 cent swing or more to make something on the trade. It wasn't worth it to me, but it others might be inclined to claw out every penny of profit they can gain. That's how I traded during QE2.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your assessment of general market conditions, but believe those broader market conditions have absolutely nothing to do with Axion because it's the greatest story never told.

     

    If you look back at the annual volume of trading in Axion's stock, the numbers are shocking. During the 12 months ended April 30, 2008, a total of 1.2 million shares traded hands. The total trading volume for the subsequent 12 month periods ended April 30th were:

     

    2009 - 3.49 million
    2010 - 8.15 million
    2011 - 50.3 million
    2012 - 78.3 million

     

    We are just now approaching a point where Axion turns its outstanding shares once a year. In comparison, CPST turned its outstanding shares three times last year. Most of the companies I track turn their stock 1.5x to 3x per year so Axion is still far enough below the radar that people who don't know me don't know the stock and people who like the way I think will only trade around the edges until their goals are met or the temptation becomes irresistible..
    28 Apr 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    To add a bit more color to my last comment, I've just posted an Instablog that shows the outstanding shares, annual trading volume and turnover frequency for the 16 stocks in my normal tracking list.

     

    I've learned over the years that turnover frequency is a particularly good indicator of overall market profile and the tendency of a stock to attract hot money.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Apr 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I like the though process on annual turnover. Do you find that data easily or have to manually calculate?
    28 Apr 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding post kicking off this thread HTL, and the other(s) are pretty dang good too... but I think everyone should read the first one that started this thread.

     

    For the record I'm moving toward having a massive core in my regular account, but considering using my Roth IRA position for trading... IIKWTHITA there's no wash-sale rule to worry about in a Roth.

     

    IIKWTHITA = if I know what the heck I'm talking about... want to see if it will catch on :-)
    28 Apr 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Well, I think your numbers may support my thoughts - Axion is more influenced by the market sentiment now than in the past I think.

     

    Reported float is 80.6M and 10-day average volume is ~425.7K. With ~180 trading days left in the year, allowing an estimated 15 days off, we would trade ~76.6M shares, resulting in a turn of about 2.

     

    The other company you mention, CPST, is heavily traded, shorted and, IMO, manipulated as well. With 10-day volume of ~5.3M and float (now, after a recent issue again) of 274.4M, it had traded ~222.5M through the end of March and would trade another ~954M through the EOY, a total turn of ~4.3 turns.

     

    Of course, if I use my 25-day averages for AXPW and CPST, which should be more representative of longer-term volume I think, of ~298K and ~3.5M we get lower turns of ~1.63 for Axion and ~3.1 for CPST.

     

    So, with AXPW hitting the low side of turns and, essentially, behaving as CPST does, I think that awareness of AXPW may have increased more than you might have anticipated and it may be more influenced by overall market forces than in the past.

     

    Anecdotally, Mercy has mentioned a few times about momentum traders that post on SA having taken note of AXPW and planning to trade it. If we assume a similar increase of awareness on other longer-established social trading venues that may have a large(r) number of such traders, it's not much of a stretch to think that "the market" is more aware and treating AXPW like it does other penny stocks.

     

    Of course, I can never know for sure, but using my assessment from the charts and your presentation of the volumes, the results suggest, to *me*, that market awareness has increased.

     

    One big difference I should note is that AXPW does not have outfits like Gilder, Gagnon and Howe participating (TG - not Tom Granville - for that too!). They simultaneously go long and short and trade heavily in CPST. As long as AXPW doesn't have these sorts involved we do have a little more stability likely and, therefore, some lesser degree of "general" market influence.

     

    Of course, I could be wrong.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Jon Springer ... English is hard enough for me.
    28 Apr 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I track the data for all of those companies, so it was a simple matter of just pulling the periods.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I agree that Axion is more subject to market forces today than it was a year ago and it will most certainly be more subject to market forces in April 2013 than it is today. As the Instablog shows, however, it's still down in the *unknown equity* end of the range.

     

    My numbers aren't based on turning the float, they're turning the entire issued and outstanding common stock.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    LoL! If you didn't translate, you'd be the *only* one knowing what you're talking about! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Drich, It is well worth the learning especially when he replies to all the trolls lurking about recently.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Shoot! I hadn't followed your link yet when I posted.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Is there a link to the holy rosetta stone somewheres? ;)
    28 Apr 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Loved your new article on Altenergy JP. There is another area of ROI for NS beyond fuel savings. That is the PR advertising bonanza a successful 999 would provide NS and the rail industry. I can see the TV ads now - a tree hugger's dream. Of course all of them would end with "Now we can all breathe a little easier!" Especially Axion shareholders if that happens!
    28 Apr 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It took a few days to collect my thoughts and find the supporting data, but I think the application is a thing of beauty.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    It is a thing of beauty, especially in its simplicity. Great simple solutions tend to be around for a long time. The wheel, the fork, etc.NS's 999 implementation is a two fold development challenge - the batteries and the integration of the battery into the rest of the locomotive's systems by NS.

     

    They got an education with the first 999 sort of like the Axion Gen I line that led to the Gen II. Like Axion, they will nail down the precise configuration with this version and go on to Gen III. That will be a production version IMHO. I am already licking my lips. I hope all goes smoothly, or at least without bone-rattling bumps!

     

    I've been in the design and development hardware business for an appreciable period of time. The NS 999 deployment reminds me of the first Apollo launch. Does it get us to the moon or does it blow up? I'm praying it gets us there because the rest is simply good execution.

     

    If orders for PbC batteries for electric locomotive orders start piling up at Axion in 2013 I would assume Axion might name a manufacturing partner. If that is the case I hope it is East Penn, or maybe "anybody besides XIDE."
    28 Apr 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    BW: there's a lot more too - DRich likely has some hard numbers. Maintenance costs. IIUC, there's lots of filter and oil changes involved, minor and major maintenance and very frequent rebuilds. This all translates not only into "direct" costs, but down time - lost productivity and revenue per locomotive. And that translates into more locomotives in inventory.

     

    So a substantial increase in "elocos" would translate into savings beyond fuel and the the PR - bottom line should be enhanced.

     

    For me that means the business case is even stronger than what we may have discussed in the past.

     

    What we don't have a handle on ATM is the offsetting expenses associated with the "eloco". Since "there's no free lunch", there have to be some.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, overlooked that side of the equation. It is the same side the EV guys cite all the time - it cost less to maintain theoretically. We'll see how it works out but that is a very strong possibility. Less time in the shop means higher utilization rates and lower operating expenses. So many potential benefits. In the end NS will have the hard numbers. Follow on orders for switchers will confirm they are attractive. If they work for NS they will work for any railroad.
    28 Apr 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Well, one of the considerations for a manufacturing partner, from the POV of both AXPW and it's customers that wnt "second source reliability", would be the financial viability of that partner.

     

    Depending on time-frame, XIDE may not yet be back at that state.

     

    So I'd guess that both JCI and East Penn and would be good candidates while XIDE won't yet be.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Liked the article. Again, it was a good summary.
    My analysis of your commentary is this. If NS spends 4 Billion over the next decade, that business alone will keep Axion at positive cash flow for a decade. They only require 100 million per year now to break even.
    Add in the other railroads.
    Add in the PowerCube
    Add in the oil rigs
    Add in the automotive.

     

    Stop. I can't count that high.
    The point is that the NS acceptance of the PbC as a product that saves them money is a blessing to Axion in that it insures their survival. The balance of growth is in the untapped markets yet to accept the product.
    Bloggers can debate this all day long because of the stock price and its charts. But the PbC being accepted because it saves a company money, will someday soon be recognized as the reason for a huge lift in the stock price.

     

    As a wise blogger once said a hundred times, " the market acts in the short term as a voting machine, but in the long term it acts as a weighing machine"
    28 Apr 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    I agree with your comments and would like to put a little extra support under your list of possibilities. One of the things discussed in the earlier Concentrators was the fact that Axion had a viable business with regular batteries. Axion has been quietly building a respectable business with LA batteries even as it has continued R&D with the PbC. Even if the time frame for acceptance of the PbC was delayed, this underlying business with a certified factory that could produce many more regular batteries made Axion worth the cheap PPS that it is now bringing.
    The fact that NSC has now made a purchase is huge because it validates what JP has been saying about top tier testing going on so long. (failures take place early in testing) We are on the threshold of Axion and NSC publicly demonstrating what the PbC can do.
    According to TG in the last CC we also have other projects in development that have not been mentioned.
    I would love to see faster sales and have the stock price rise quickly. However, I also want Axion to be able to handle the ramp up in production without quality issues like AONE had!
    28 Apr 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    jveal, that's some great perspective. Thanks for such a succinct summation for us truly being on solid ground. Good basis for deeper confidence.
    28 Apr 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The $4.4 billion was for the big four railroads and a fleet of 23,400 locomotives nationwide, not just NS. We could probably quadruple that for a global market, but why get greedy?
    28 Apr 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    JP and everyone else--so what is your best estimate of the maximum annual sales for Axion?

     

    PbC's (Rail + PC + Auto + Other) total mkt $, each then adjusted to derive an annual sales rate, + Flooded.

     

    Thanks.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's no way that I'd even try to venture a guess at what Axion's maximum potential sales might be. Sizing the potential markets is a bit easier. That total likely Rail market is probably $4 billion a year globally. Micro-hybrids are another $4 billion. Grid will probably be an order of magnitude larger.

     

    As Axion builds a book of business in the higher margin markets, its flooded battery production will be discontinued because it makes more sense to focus Axion's limited capacity on the highest value products.

     

    Axion generated $8 million in revenue last year. Tom has set a goal of 300% YoY growth for both 2012 and 2013. That works out to $32 million this year and $128 million next year if the goal is met. Looking farther out, the landscape gets real fuzzy for me.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    GreenTeckGrid article about Viridity Energy, Saft, SEPTA, and Axion Power:

     

    http://bit.ly/KgcjBS
    28 Apr 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One could certainly read that article as delicately hinting at the identity of the battery supplier for the next project.
    28 Apr 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Yep! That's my take. For SEPTA's trolly cars, is my guess.
    28 Apr 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    JP> What kind of battery do you think Saft supplied, and what kind of price advantage (since money is tight for SEPTA without the grant money) do you think Axion could provide on the battery capital costs?
    28 Apr 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    bang: I believe there was grant money involved. Saft only sells lithium batteries.

     

    However, I read somewhere months ago that this is the first time SEPTA has ever turned one of its assets into a profit generating asset. It's landmark.

     

    Trolley cars. like Cleveland's RTA, are high on the list as potential PbC users.
    28 Apr 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    "800-kilowatt, 400-kilowatt-hour battery from Saft"

     

    That's what PbC can do and can do better or at least cheaper than Li-ion.
    28 Apr 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Just curious but is anyone else thinking that the State of Pennsylvania is damn smart in their continual funding of the battery companies?

     

    I am amazed at how well they have focused on this industry.
    28 Apr 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    That's one of the beauties of a federal system---letting the states experiment and compete with each other to some extent. We get good chances to see what works and what doesn't. That's always in tension though to a degree with some of the obvious benefits of widespread standards, but in lots of things one size doesn't fit all, and cookie cutter solutions, even good ones, are sometimes not the best everywhere. So if Pennsylvania can indeed yield great synergies and produce real solutions that work, all through the application of some tightly focused money, (their money), I say awesome.
    28 Apr 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    It's great to read that they're really looking to work with an "unnamed" battery company. As soon as the Viridity deal was announced and the SEPTA connection came too light, it was so obvious that they were going to look at the PbC as soon as there was a need to live without the grant money for Lithium ion.
    This time it's not a cube on rails, it's a cube on the wayside.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Exodus of investments in greenteck keeps occurring:

     

    http://bit.ly/KgdPE9
    28 Apr 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (500) | Send Message
     
    Any greentech company that can't make a financial case is in trouble. Solar and wind have to compete with methane.
    I live on top of the Barnett shale where fracking has been going on for 20 years now. Does that make me part of the solution or part of the problem?

     

    I hate to see these companies implode. Axion analysis for autos, trains, and power cubes may have regulatory components, but the arguments always seem to focus on cost reduction and revenue generation.

     

    The stock price problem may be that the people who would have paid attention, no longer do. Just like the internet of 1999, investors stopped pouring money into goofy businesses, but the technology continues. Companies that had real income and products made out fine.
    28 Apr 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    OT: It looks like SA may have been short handed today in the editorial department because a very low number of new articles made it to publication. My latest was not among them so I'll have to hope for tomorrow.
    29 Apr 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I just went looking for it JP. Disappointed it wasn't up yet. Fingers are crossed.
    29 Apr 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I sent you a care package.
    29 Apr 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I am beginning to see how Axion can succeed in ultimately selling PbC electrodes to the rest of the lead acid battery industry. In a hypothetical case Axion proves the PbC in rail applications and a chinese lead acid battery maker goes to the central planners, lays out how much imported oil can be saved, they look at the numbers and say "Let's do it."

     

    OK, so forget the Chinese market, let's make it a lead acid battery company in England, France, or Germany or any other EU country. If I were a lead acid battery manufacturer I would be watching the applications in the US where the PbC proved itself and looking into how I could obtain PbC electrodes for the same applications in my markets.

     

    The Axion negative carbon electrode opens up new markets to lead acid battery makers that simply didn't exist for them before. Any lead acid battery company that didn't want to leverage Axion's technology in their markets and across their customers would be nuts to pass it up. Yeah, it is a long way off, but the possibilities are crystal clear to me now.
    29 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about the battery market is that there are so many well defined verticals. Assume for a minute that electric locomotives are very successful and demand for batteries ramps to $300 million a year. If you operate a battery plant with excess capacity and TG walks through the door and says:

     

    "Tell me Bang, how would you like to be the exclusive manufacturer of PbC batteries for the railroads? We'll bring you a proven market and customer base, and we'll sell you all the electrodes you need on the following terms."

     

    It's a different and far more valuable dynamic than TG walking through the door saying:

     

    "We have these cool electrodes we want to sell you and we're sure your customers will love them after you go through all the trouble of selling, testing etc."

     

    Now imagine doing the same thing in four or five different market segments on several continents. Heck, you could even do a deal with the Chinese if you were willing to sell an Asian license instead of trying to exploit the market directly.
    29 Apr 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I've been a salesman all my life. That would be a dream sales job selling Axion electrodes in that scenario. Futurist would love it also.

     

    I'm reminded of the financial backer I had in my manufacturing and web ecommerce business. I would go to him and lay out the numbers I anticipated from growth over the next couple of years. He would look at them and say "OK, now all you have to do is do it."
    29 Apr 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The roll out plan has always been perfect the PbC battery, prove a market niche, bring in a partner to serve that niche and then prove another niche and go find another partner. Over and over again.

     

    Building electrode fabrication capacity is cheap and easy because there are no nasty environmental issues. Building battery plants is far harder. But if you can show an established battery manufacturer that you can bring high volume high margin business to him through partnering, you'll rapidly become his BFF.
    29 Apr 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    My candidate for the "mystery" business TG said hadn't been discussed before is SEPTA with Viridity. It is just to tantalizing JP. Should it come to pass that would be a shocker and open up a huge market for the PowerCube.

     

    I also now understand DRich's comment that Axion behaves more like a biotech than an industrial. All the demo projects Axion has underway are like clinical drug trials. If the parallel were exactly the same the stock of a small biotech usually jumps when a big biotech agrees to license the product, pay a royalty to the small biotech, and pours money into continued development. Ergo - Axion's manufacturing partner. Instead of a royalty they agree to buy the electrodes from Axion for X plus a licensing fee.
    29 Apr 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think the light bulb is coming on. The plan is to sell electrodes to people who want to make PbC batteries for a specific application. You might well see a situation where JCI wants European micro-hybrids, East Penn wants rail, Trojan wants stationary for solar and Exide can't get an appointment. You can slice and dice the market till the cows come home or the patents expire.
    29 Apr 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    JP> When was that plan recognized in Axion's early days and who conceived it?
    29 Apr 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    bang: Actually, SEPTA has been discussed before, by me!

     

    Here's some January 20 correspondence between myself and FocalPoint Analytics:

     

    JP is right now writing up an article about the AONE shelf, which will be in Monday's header. We talked today for about 30 minutes about his idea. He really likes my SEPTA guess. But heck, I only ever "kind of" got one guess right so far, that being the military/Navy order.

     

    ####

     

    However, don't count a deal with Viridity Energy/Axion and the Army's, Fort Meade. Fort Meade, in the below link, is listed as one of Viridity's clients:

     

    http://bit.ly/KnNpvX
    29 Apr 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    We always knew that we'd have to prove the PbC's utility in a niche before we'd be able to sell more than demonstration quantities. The platform technology model came together sometime in 2006 and a number of us were involved in figuring out how to tackle the market if the development effort was successful.

     

    The most attractive attribute of existing manufacturers is that they already have manufacturing, distribution, sales and customer service capabilities. If you can leverage those capabilities with smart partnering arrangements on a product that you've already proven, you'll be way better off than you would be building an organization from scratch.

     

    In the process you can cherry pick a few ultra-high value customers you'd rather keep for yourself and farm the others out to partners that are ready, willing and able to serve the markets you either don't want to serve, or don't have the capacity to serve.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    More on the Fort Meade/Viridity "demand optimization" relationship:

     

    http://bit.ly/IFyNHX
    29 Apr 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... It's the reason I've been telling you for years now (Wow, time does fly) the the most important thing to Axion is the proof of business model by announcing a manufacturing partner. Hopefully, not one that wants to, or has the ability, to take over. Then I would be forced to follow the technology into just another multifaceted industrial investment where the growth might get lost in the product line ... or worse, shelved ... bummer.

     

    The compelling thing Axion did was buy that New Castle facility. It gave them a development lab but more important, it gave them a place to start production service to a client industry & springboard to that all important partnership with the autonomy to tell the "sharks" and "octopus-squids" to piss off. So the order of battle that I see ramping Axion (and its stock) will be the day that some Fortune 1000 reports in a Quarterly Report that $x.xx was added to the bottom line because of this battery and Axion announces it is being built by Blah-Blah, Inc. Until then, I hope it leaks upward. Maybe enough to join an exchange which would make for a helpful share price boost. Just not the big ones.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I simply said it was my candidate for the mystery business - I wasn't claiming I thought it up. Sheeesh!
    29 Apr 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Very nice info Maya. What a great strategic partner Axion has in Viridity. While Viridity has to be "storage neutral" it certainly doesn't hurt Axion to have a strong relationship with Viridity.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I catch on slow DRich, but I catch on good!
    29 Apr 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I didn't think it up, either. I heard about the Viridity/SEPTA relationship at the PowerCube unveiling.

     

    I think you have a great next-up guess. I don't care who said what before whom when it comes to guessing.

     

    Only that sales do continue. It's great fun to figure who is potentially next, because there are so many potential "whos."
    29 Apr 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    The advantage over biotech/pharma is that Axion can run many more 'trials' (they are cheaper) and thus have a greater chance of getting their product to market. And as we have noted many times before, if it works in one application it is likely to work in several (generally not a luxury enjoyed in the drug business).
    29 Apr 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In most cases the trial participants will pay for the privilege, which is even better than pharma.
    29 Apr 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    "Exide can't get an appointment"

     

    Music to my ears after a hard days work. Just way to funny to an investor that still feels spurned by Exide. I plan on reminding TG that shareholders still remember the Federal grant that never was.
    29 Apr 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I can assure you that Tom remembers all too well.
    30 Apr 2012, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    BW: "understand DRich's comment that Axion behaves more like a biotech"

     

    It was JaKurtz that started it off, IIRC.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Gottliep followed up.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Nit-picking, I know, but credit where it's due and all that.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Roger that!
    29 Apr 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    For the curious here is the visitor information for the Axion Power Shareholder Group website. Screenshot of Google Analytics report from inception to now: http://bit.ly/IfCiWk
    29 Apr 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    JP...your latest article is now up:

     

    http://bit.ly/JhrCr3
    29 Apr 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Great article, by JP.

     

    Encouraging all Axionistas to make comment, so that JP's article gets "most commented" status by SA (which I believe most commented on articles get emailed to all SA members every day).
    29 Apr 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's something I've never heard of, but if it's true then a lot more SA readers will learn of my existence because I always draw a ton of comment.
    29 Apr 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I just checked and SA users who get the Morning Briefing also get notified about the most popular and most commented articles of the day. I've just changed my preferences. Thanks for the heads up Maya.
    29 Apr 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    John: For instance, in my email inbox today came the top three Most Commented on articles, one with 101, another with 51, and a third with 39 comments.

     

    Hoping tomorrow, I see your fine article listed.
    29 Apr 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I feel like a failure for anything under 200 to 300
    29 Apr 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone have a feel for whether lead is scarce enough to be an investment possibility over the next 5-10 years? One reference from The Oil Drum suggests as of 2009 a less than 20 year supply (see slide 12, http://bit.ly/IfKcPq) and this predates our discussions about grid storage and start/stop for autos.

     

    I'm not sure lead will perform differently than any other metal commodity, but advanced lead, including (and especially?) PbC could dramatically shift the supply-demand dynamic in a short period of time.
    29 Apr 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember that on a per battery basis, the PbC uses 30% less lead than conventional batteries because it replaces all of the lead-based negative plates with carbon assemblies.

     

    Lead is a very common metal. While the *proved reserves* are a 20 year supply of 85 million metric tons, the USGS reports that the *identified resources* total more than 1.5 billion metric tons. The big reason for the difference is demand is basically limited to the battery industry which does a great job of recycling and it doesn't make sense to prove up more than 20 years of reserves.

     

    http://on.doi.gov/x6Am9R
    29 Apr 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    The PbC uses 1/3 less lead than a conventional 12V auto lead acid battery. I don't know about the difference in lead content between the 16V Axion PbC versus the 12V auito battery in stop start, but Axion believes a conventional 12V lead acid battery PLUS a 16V lead acid battery is ideal for stop start. For rail that is a new application that would increase demand. JP's latest articles has some market size for PbC's in the rail market you could use to extrapolate numbers. That's all I can tell you.

     

    If the auto industry clings to two AGM batteries for stop start that doubles the demand for lead on new vehicles. That is probably where you might focus first. 100's of millions of dollars are being spent by the major lead acid battery makers to expand production of AGM batteries for stop start. For the moment and for a quite a while going forward AGM is in the catbird seat. Additionally, Axion's negative carbon electrode is designed as a drop in replacement for the lead negative electrode in current AGM batteries. What the adoption rate might be for Axion by the world's major AGM producers is totally up in the air now.
    29 Apr 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Maxwell Technologies' CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

     

    Link:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Interesting to hear about Start/stop from another entity.

     

    I especially notice that the reference to car manufacturer is rather unspecific: ..making the rounds in Detroit, explaining and demonstrating.... ".
    That seems to be far far away from getting a contract. So no one in Detroit is testing their batteries yet?.

     

    "All hybrid cars incorporate a stop-star idle elimination function that turns off the internal combustion engine as the car slows and then restarts the engine when the driver releases the brake. Batteries have been the incumbent energy source for stop-start. The constant restarting and stopping in stop-and-go traffic wears out batteries quickly. Heavy cycling and cold weather also affect batteries' ability to recovery quickly enough to provide power for repetitive restarting.

     

    So stop-start systems constantly monitor battery to determine if it has sufficient power for the next restart. If not, the system disables itself until the battery recharges. So no fuel is saved and no emission reductions are achieved until that battery recovers. PSA's ultracap-powered stop-start system restarts every time in all conditions, reliably reducing fuel consumption and emissions by up to 15% in urban driving.

     

    Auto Bild, Germany's largest automotive publication, and the German equivalent of the AAA have both recognized the PSA system for its superior performance and reliability. We expect Continental would be able to capitalize on those good reviews to win more auto business.

     

    U.S. automakers have begun announcing stop-start launch plans too. And we and Continental have been making the rounds in Detroit, explaining and demonstrating how ultracapacitors make micro hybrid cars more reliable, more fuel efficient and more environmentally friendly.

     

    More than 60 million new cars are produced by automakers around the globe each year. So the industry drives huge volumes for part suppliers. Any amount of ultracapacitor content per car multiplied by any reasonable fraction of the vehicles produced would create $1 billion market opportunity by the end of the decade.

     

    Maybe if you continue to ask when we might announce another automotive design-in, as we've said in the past, we continue to be engaged in development activity with several automakers and tier-1 suppliers. The success of the PSA program has validated our products and it's stimulating in generating request for price growth. But it's a slow process and the industry is secretive, so we can't predict timing for design-in announcement."
    29 Apr 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Poul:
    Thanks, good!!
    29 Apr 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next concentrator.
    Jakurtz's chart is updated and still in play, but only for a day or two.
    JP's VWMA chart is updated.
    Be sure to check out the new links in the header under "Important Axion Power Links" for HTL's in depth intra-day charting of AXPW and Bangwhiz's Q1 2012 cc question's instablog.
    ----------------------...
    http://bit.ly/KkGymf
    -------------->
    Thanks to all for keeping the discussion rolling and respectful.
    29 Apr 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.