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  • Axion Power Concentrator 95: May 2, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries 211 comments
    May 2, 2012 4:20 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    Warning signs you may have an Axion problem:

    (post by Rgholbrook in APC 40)

    Can't decide on whether to watch the Super Bowl half-time show or check-out the latest comments on the Concentrator.

    As a Xmas stocking stuffer, you gave out hand-written options to purchase one share of your current AXPW holdings at a price of $10.00 redeemable until Jan. 01, 2013.

    You've renamed the family dog Axion (ironically, it had been "Tesla")

    Above the work bench in the dark part of the basement is a picture of a NS switching engine. Beneath the picture are multiple burnt candles, small bowls containing facial paints, and the remains of several buckets of KFC.

    You keep saying things like "Hard to Love, Viridity, & Maya" in your sleep

    Your wife demands to know "What do you mean I'm hard to love and who the hell are Viridity & Maya!".

    You spend your time making Axion lists like this one.

    Promised god your first born male-child will become a priest if the stock price hits $20.00.

    Promised god that if the stock price hits $20.00 you'll give half the money to charity if your only daughter will dump her loser boyfriend.

    Explained to paramedics after cardio incident you thought the guy on the radio said, "Great Fire in New Castle Battery compound", instead of "Grease Fire in White Castle Eatery knocked down. "

    Your significant other is modeling her new Victoria's Secret purchase and all you can think is: "She's wearing a thousand shares of AXPW!!!".

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated through closing Friday April 27th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart on Concentrator Comments: updated April 29

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the charts.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (211)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In between editing I missed BW's post as the last one, here it is...
    -----------------------

     

    "I don't know how big the body of water is we need to drain, but looking at accumulation distribution, Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume technical indicators the steady selling since the 1st of April is clear as a bell. Obviously for the sellers .43 is a magic number and .42 is acceptable.

     

    Thankfully the selling is obviously being professionally managed, but as for any significant upward movement it is very unlikely until these people are gone or Axion makes a blockbuster announcement. The only thing I know to do now is watch the charts for signs of sustained upward movement without large blocks being sold at low-ball numbers in relationship to the current high.

     

    Whoever these sellers are I believe they don't want to be in the stock as the next capital raise looms and another "going concern" statement be comes necessary no matter how rosy the picture looks going forward. If they get out now with a safe 20% in the till they can set back, see what happens going forward knowing they can get back in if they want on the next capital raise at a discount. I would have a hard time arguing with them about that strategy.

     

    I would love to hear opposing views"
    2 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks APH. I also made a statement in a recent APC in a lengthy lengthy post that buying now was a "no brainer." I have since decided that waiting until after the next conference call is more prudent even if I miss a few pennies up. I rarely second guess myself, but something made me reconsider. I hope it was good sense and not fear. Fear as a trader or poker player is a killer.
    2 May 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    We know that 26 million shares were sold in the last offering.

     

    We know that nobody bought more than 5.75 million shares in the offering because there have been no Section 13 filings.

     

    We know that some portion of those shares ended up in the hands of investors who seem to like a 20% up and out strategy.

     

    We know that nobody bought more than 5.75 million shares in the offering because there have been no Section 13 filings.

     

    We know that a total of 21 million shares have traded since the date of the offering, which means that willing sellers have sold 10.5 million shares.

     

    We know from today's close that there's at least one more willing seller who holds an indeterminate number of shares.

     

    We have don't have a clue about whether the 20% up and out types bought 11 million shares in the offering or 26 million.

     

    While I usually expect to see 25% to 35% of the stock sold in a direct placement to flow back into the market in short order, companies and their placement agents try to keep flippers out of deals whenever possible.

     

    All the signs indicate that when the willing sellers are gone, the market dynamic will change. The only two choices are buy at the current price while the willing sellers have stock or run the risk of chasing the price.
    2 May 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP. Nice insight with hard numbers as usual. My thinking at the moment has become I would rather average up from a low cost basis than average down while wearing a snorkel. Bear in mind my thinking is colored as an investor with limited resources and already all in. In another account I manage I must be much more careful with the level of risk. The upcoming CC should be extremely positive, but it is a black hole at the moment. I've decided it is time to stop look and listen.

     

    I have complete faith in Axion management to execute their business plan with competence. I think they've done an outstanding job and will continue to do so. The only debate in my mind is the timing of more share purchases, not the value of the investment in Axion itself.
    2 May 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Prospectus is available
    http://bit.ly/IrzOId
    2 May 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    I am in no way financially savvy. They are registering their desire to sell an additional about 45 million shares sometime in the (probably near) future.

     

    If so that's a huge number. Yes I understand that it represents money coming into the company as opposed to debt but the question is why?

     

    Should we take this filing as a strong signal that the company will need lots of cash and possibly soon due to pending sales or is the company trying to generate funds now because it doesn't know where its next meal is coming from?

     

    We were expecting another fund raising and so maybe this is the legal team getting the housekeeping out of the way early.

     

    My optimistic self says that they have a big customer and will need to ramp up production soon and so will need lots of cash.

     

    I don't talk to my pessimistic self. Its way too dark down there!
    2 May 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    No, you're reading it wrong. No new shares become available through this. See my posts below.
    2 May 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Albert,
    These are not new shares. These are shares already held by stock holders. I hope Lafferty is correct in what is now his third post below. Hopefully this is some clerical housekeeping rather than any real change in available shares to sell. I'll have to defer to others more experienced to know for sure.
    2 May 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Al, if they were indeed doing a 60+ million dollar raise at $1.37 per share that would be cause for *much* rejoicing-- an instant triple for us and likely portending a *huge* capacity expansion---which would almost only be due to a ginormous order. But, alas, I don't think that's the correct interpretation. This latest filing just looks to me like housekeeping....
    2 May 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    This is not new shares being offered for sale, just old shares already outstanding being updated with the end of year numbers.
    2 May 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    No funds to the company from this. See page 42 for list of sellers and holdings afterwards.

     

    HardToLove
    2 May 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The most recent filing is a post-effective amendment to the resale registration statement Axion filed in early 2010 for the shares that were sold in the December 2009 private placement.

     

    When a company has an effective registration statement, it must amend the filing every quarter to include the latest financial information and once a year to give the prospectus a general update.

     

    Most of the shares identified in that registration statement have already been sold.
    3 May 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I read this, but do not understand it....JP please explain

     

    Axion files an amendment to the Registration Statement:
    http://bit.ly/KvfyB7
    2 May 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    quicktake: looks merely like Vani's options agreement...
    2 May 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    "This Post-Effective Amendment is being filed to include the financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2011."
    2 May 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    48,
    In case nobody else responds to your comment, I thought I should.
    Funniest comment I have read in weeks, if not longer. Although thinking about it the Jakurtz joke about the TA chart line coming out of the computer rated high on the funny meter also.
    2 May 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The first paragraph of the prospectus says:

     

    "This prospectus relates to the offer and sale of up 45,757,572 shares of common stock of Axion Power International, Inc., a Delaware corporation, issued to certain selling stockholders, which are signatories on the below listed securities purchase agreement pursuant to a Securities Purchase Agreement, dated December 18, 2009, between the selling stockholders and the Company and that may be offered and sold from time to time by the selling stockholders."

     

    The critical bit is "Securities Purchase Agreement dated December 18, 2009"
    3 May 2012, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Repasted from #94, just to keep it all tidy in one pile:

     

    "Bang, I would say that this next CC is going to be all about TG putting real meat on the 300% revenue ramp and cash-flow breakeven bones. If he backtracks on his last CC's statements, that won't be good. The folks you're speaking of will do exactly what you say and more of it. But if TG reiterates, reinforces, and substantiates his statements, then I think the fence sitting bleachers will thin out greatly. And on the outside chance he even expands the revenue prediction and accelerates the breakeven timeline? Strap in."
    2 May 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    48
    Agreed...I cannot seeing TG backing down from last CC unless something came out of left field.
    3 May 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
     
    There were some interesting comments in concentrator 93 about the future strategy, whereby once Axion demonstrates the technology within a certain market, it seeks to license out the technology instead of acting as a manufacturer. I like the strategy and it seems to me that it considerably reduces the need for future capital infusions.

     

    However I find that it makes it more difficult to model the likely value of the stock. If Axion were to act as a more conventional company, one can estimate the size of the market, the proportion of the market that Axion might get, margins, etc., and come to various estimates of the value. However in a situation where the majority of revenue would be coming from licensing, its more cloudy. Perhaps this is because I have no experience with companies who generate their revenue this way. Any idea on what type of revenues might come through licensing (i.e. on a per battery basis)?
    2 May 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I think the discussion has been that prospects for true licensing arrangements are relatively distant. Rather, what Axion seeks to do first is manufacture electrodes (vice finished batteries) in house in greater and greater quantities. A manufacturing ramp for electrodes, even into the millions, is straightforward to achieve by adding robotic lines at about 5million$ per, require no extra permitting, and which have fairly short lead times...
    2 May 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Treehill,
    It comes up once in a while about Axion licensing the electrode instead of manufacturing it. That is far from the truth and not about to ever happen. Axion now makes complete PbC batteries. They at some point will make about 3,000 per day.
    But orders greater than that cannot be built at New Castle. If a huge order does come in then Axion will simply build the millions of negative electrodes another battery manufacturer needs to make the PbC. The electrodes will be sent and the manufacturer will complete and sell the rest of the battery on existing battery manufacturing lines.
    Its not licensing. Its partnering.
    Axion will be valued on its electrode line manufacturing prowess, its total PbC production ability, and its patents.

     

    No different than any other manufacturer. Just a different product.
    Think of Intel. They make chips ,not computers. Axion makes negative carbon electrodes, not batteries.
    Whereas, the normal markup on a PbC battery should be about 20-30% of a $250-$300 battrery, I believe the negative electrode ( $100) should also
    have a profit of about 20%-30%

     

    Since billions will be spent on storage, s/s , PowerCubes, ect I am not having a difficult time finding value way above the $.42 level.
    2 May 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    For the sake of clarity, Axion does not want to *license* the technology in the sense that somebody else will be taught how to make electrode assemblies.

     

    What Axion wants to do is partner with manufacturers who already own battery plants and distribution networks. It wants to give those partners some sort of exclusivity with respect to a market niche and then sell those partners all the PbC electrode assemblies they need.

     

    Intel does not make computers. It makes processors that it sells to a limited number of customers who make computers. Axion wants to do exactly the same thing – it wants to manufacture electrode assemblies and sell them to battery manufacturers who want to sell PbC products to their customers.

     

    Licensing a technology in the way you're thinking is a great way to lose control over the technology and the associated IP. Axion does not want to take that risk.
    3 May 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if I muddied the issue for anyone. John's correction will help me to better remember it. (The right way.)
    3 May 2012, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't think you muddled anything ;-)
    3 May 2012, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to Futurist and JP for clarifying my mis-interpretation. The strategy makes sense, though I suppose if they are going to be manufacturing carbon electodes then when (I won't say 'if') demand increases drastically, there will be a need for more capital to fund expansion. But I can live with that.

     

    I also have no difficulty finding value way above the $.42 level. That's why Axion is my biggest holding.
    3 May 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The Gen-2 electrode line was designed to make about 4,800 electrode assemblies per shift - which is enough for about 160 PbC batteries that use 30 electrode assemblies each. The Greenridge facility has enough space for 10 electrode lines running side by side. Currently there's only one. Additional copies of the line can be built in a few weeks at a cost of under $5 million each. So as demand ramps, more capacity can be added in stages to help avoid the problem of expensive fabrication equipment running at 20% of capacity.

     

    At this stage in the game, the modular nature of the Gen-2 line is a big advantage.
    3 May 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Treehill ... In the distant past the guesses usually range between $75-100 on a per battery basis. No one to my memory has a clue what the margins will look like. Happy modelling.
    2 May 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Not that long ago there was discussion about patents and IP. I was recently reviewing some older materials, and found a relevant part of an old (2007) interview transcript from Tom Granville. (This transcript has been posted on the APCs before.)

     

    "All we are doing is substituting something. It sounds very simple, it sounds like, why can't someone else do it? Ed [Buiel] did mention that he worked on a project with MeadWestvaco and AEP, American Electric Power, in a similar attempt to try to come up with our product. They spent close to $20 million on this project, and found that they were blocked on the patents by us; C&T actually owned the patents. They were working with a Russian company that claim they own the patents and sold them some patents that were of little value. That project was closed and as a result, Ed ended up with us."

     

    The fact that MeadWestvaco actually stopped the development of a project due to Axion's patents is pretty reassuring, I think.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    (it's under the Q&A section)
    2 May 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Also really cool that a giant electric utility like AEP would be involved in a $20 million project to come up with a PbC. Yet another validation of the big need for it.

     

    On the unimpressive other hand, what's up with the 'sky is falling' knee-jerk reaction to the Amendment today? Jeesh. Wt*!?
    2 May 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (633) | Send Message
     
    The Registration Statement appears to be for early investors to sell their holdings (~45m shares) at a price up to $1.37.

     

    Admittedly, some of these investors have been in since 2005, but I do find it very disappointing that, post Norfolk Southern order, they want to get out. My thinking is that activity, sales, and the stock price are all on the verge of turning up dramatically. This certainly doesn't support that thesis. Lucky for us JP is not selling although presumably he had the opportunity to participate.

     

    JP will no doubt explain things for us in the morning his time, including when the transaction will likely close. The Feb 8th financing, which involved fewer shares, appeared to be difficult for the company to get done. The fact that the proceeds went to the company would also seem to be a major factor (buyers know that their investment will help the company while in this case, they're just observing and placing bets from the sideline).

     

    The positive way of viewing this is that a deal with a major buyer or consortium of buyers (who else can invest $62m in a micro-cap?) has already been negotiated (hence the $1.37 max price with the presumed potential for reductions based on actual conditions at closing). Given the relative illiquid nature of the stock, it would be very, very hard for an institution to accumulate tens of millions of shares without dramatically impacting the price. Maybe the tables have turned......
    2 May 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    No, I don't think you're reading the filing correctly at all (not to be snippy, but this is obviously a matter of crucial importance.) No shares become available for sale through this that were not available before.
    See the 'explanatory note':
     
    "This Post-Effective Amendment No. 2 on Form S-1 (this “Post-Effective Amendment”) relates solely to the sale by selling stockholders of up to 47,757,572 shares of common stock issued to the selling stockholders, which resales were registered by the registrant on the Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-164352) declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission on or about April 19, 2010 and as amended by Post-Effective Amendment No. 1 on Form S-1, declared effective on or about April 25, 2011. This Post-Effective Amendment is being filed to include the financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2011."
    2 May 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    It also says that "AXPW will not receive any funds from this transaction but that existing shareholders may sell at any time depending on mkt. conditions and other factors 47,757,572 shares of common stock up to a price of $1.37."
    2 May 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    The $1.37 price is thus: "Estimated for the purpose of determining the registration fee pursuant to Rule 457(c), based on the average of the bid and asked price as
    of January 7, 2010."
    2 May 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The registration statement relates to the 2009 private placement. The contracts required Axion to file the registration statement promptly, which it did in early 2010, and to keep it current, which it did with the current amendment.

     

    Page 41 identifies the stockholders who own the shares that were included in the registration statement. It includes, among others, Mr. Winner and Special Sits who both sold their entire position last year.

     

    The bulk of the shares included in this registration statement have already flowed into the market during 2010 and 2011. The amendment is just good housekeeping.
    3 May 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (633) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, I'm not sure how that addresses the questions I raised. OK, these shares were already eligible to be sold. So, is this essentially an aggregation mechanism?

     

    I hope it was obvious that I was speculating (I watch Axion very closely but have no domain expertise in securities law) but I thought my comments were fact-based and might spark a little discussion. Yes, maybe I'm wasting everyone's time since we all know JP can get to the bottom of this. Still, if I were the teacher, I'd like to see that my students were at least attempting to think for themselves.
    2 May 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    These are shareholders, looks like from the early folks who provided the initial capital for the formation of the company. Those shares are part of the existing shares (not newly issued and therefore dilutionary), other than the few new shares represented by new options. Note how often the company states that they get none of the money from the sale of any of these shares, and that the shares are controlled by the shareholders. The company IS responsible for keeping the books straight on the shares and meeting SEC rules, though, including shelling out just over $4k to keep the registration up to date.

     

    These shareholders (just like us) CAN sell whenever they like - and that's what the registration states.

     

    I'm sure that more knowledgeable old AXION heads can add lots of detail, but I believe this is not something to get upset about.
    2 May 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, what TB said, apmarshall. Sorry if I sounded harsh, I just didn't want anyone freaking out over a clerical matter.
    2 May 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I am not a security lawyer and will hope that JP will make clear what the registration is about. However, I have been an active stock investor for 35 years. This registration ,in my humble opinion, is a paperwork necessity. It simply clears up issues raised in the last offering. It means nothing to Axion shareholders except that to note that almost all the previously issued shares are available for sale.

     

    We already knew this. If I am wrong I am anxious to find out why?

     

    In life you learn something every day. Can't wait for an educated opinion.
    2 May 2012, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Remember last year's blackout in the southwest? This study results in FERC and NERC recommending this:

     

    -- System planners and operators should recognize, study and incorporate the effects of sub-100 kV systems on bulk-power system reliability into their planning and operations;

     

    Short article with more points (advice), all of which looks great for the future of the PowerCube, and the MiniCube:

     

    http://bit.ly/IGUSKF
    2 May 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Wow. Can you hear what they are preaching? If customers with 100 or so Kw back-up could just use their backup power for awhile, then we can end these black-outs, rolling or not.
    Who in this world could provide a system that small that could respond that fast? Gee. I just don't know.

     

    Explains why California is different than Pennsylvania.
    2 May 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Can we augment the lyrics to this song?

     

    http://bit.ly/Iodxrc

     

    Maybe like this:

     

    ~~~In the year 2025~~~
    ~~~No man...will survive~~~
    ~~~Nor, will he thrive~~~
    ~~~Without his PbC...~~~

     

    ~~~Whoa...whoa~~~

     

    ~~~In the year 3535~~~
    ~~~There are so many...still alive~~~
    ~~~All because...of a hive~~~
    ~~~Of PbCs...~~~

     

    ~~~Whoa...whoa~~~

     

    ~~~In the year 4545~~~
    ~~~Power is gone...for the younger gen~~~
    ~~~ To not have power, when~~~
    ~~~They their need their texting zen~~~

     

    ~~~Whoa...whoa~~~

     

    ~~~Whoa, whoa~~~

     

    (By then the patented electrode assembly just might break down!)

     

    ;-)
    3 May 2012, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Although I might suggest that you stick to writing novels instead of song lyrics, your point is well taken. :-)
    3 May 2012, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Futurist,
    Note that the article talks about 100 kV transmission lines, not 100 kW (backup) power. I interpreted it to mean that the system operators need to pay more attention to the smaller transmission/distribution lines (100 kV and less) in system stability, and not just focus on the bulk 500 kV+ transmission system.

     

    However, I believe the study that Rosewater is undertaking in Ontario _will_ evaluate how storage (perhaps near 100 kW) will affect system reliability.
    http://bit.ly/ru1GhG

     

    Mitch
    3 May 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    APM, basically this thing refers to the shares Axion sold in their much renowned and now-famous "rabbit-out-of-a-hat" capital raise of late 2009. JP of course has all the juicy details. But if I have it right, Axion was just about backed to the wall, with Exide putting salt and pepper on their tail and licking their chops for them to roll...uh, chest up, when outta nowhere,TG pulls off this miracle 20 million$+ raise and slips their foul clutches. It was that very money which had been carrying the company all the way until the last smaller raise we just experienced in Feb...
    2 May 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (633) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Also, I think Bobhaeger found a key statement about the source of the $1.37. Hopefully, this is part of a long-term process and not an indication that these folks are willing to sell at the current share price.
    2 May 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    It is simply an update of a deal done long ago. It is meaningless except as an SEC exercise in dotting the i's and crossing the t's. The stockholders have been free to sell for years. One of those sellers was Special Situations last year. It is just a piece of paper that changes nothing. People are starting to jump at shadows. I would be thrilled if they all sold at $1.37, but first we would have to get to $1.37 for them to do it.

     

    Don't feel bad about it - I over-reacted the first time I saw it a couple years ago too.
    2 May 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Amazing news!!!!

     

    In case everyone having a panic attack over old SEC news of an old stock issuance missed it, Axion has good news.

     

    Today RoseWater Energy put some good stuff about their dream boat residential Power(mini)Cube on a press release.
    http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
    This was put out to attract new business. It is a very good thing. People very experienced in selling high end products to the home market are now pushing the PbC residential PowerCube.
    I don't know why I can't get my head around this market. One Zillion homes in North America. 1% of that is a hell of a lot of homes. One tenth of one percent of that is a huge market. Just because I don't have a solar panel on my roof doesn't mean a market doesn't exist.
    Congrats to Rosewater for contining their marketing efforts.
    2 May 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Looking back at Rosewater

     

    Interesting group this Rosewater Energy company. Successful group of former entrepenuers that sold high end electronic products to the home market.
    Here is what they said on February 11,2011.

     

    RoseWater Energy Group signs MOU with Axion Power International to develop a residential storage product.

     

    RoseWater Energy Group is pleased to announce that it has agreed to work with Axion Power to develop a residential energy storage device that will ensure both power quality and emergency back up power for the residential market.

     

    “We are excited about the potential of this product” said Joe Piccirilli of RoseWater Energy Group. “We look forward to adding this product to our product line and expect sizeable market penetration within the first few years, with significant growth and distribution ultimately through the utilities themselves.”

     

    Today they come through with a study by a utility of the economics of the PbC for the home. Just one more small step toward realization of a dream.
    Good job Rosewater. Take your time and do it right.
    2 May 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    The great thing is they understand the market they are trying to sell from past experience, they understand the PbC and the Mini-cube from long experience with Axion - and they know how to to market, sell, distribute, and service their intended customer base.
    2 May 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    To understand Rosewater you need to understand Joe Pic's last company AVAD. The Association of Value Added Distributors was a national network that brought 12 high end smart home systems contractors together under a single roof.

     

    Ingram Micro bought AVAD for $200 million in 2005 and integrated the AVAD operations into their marketing structure. All of the original entrepreneurs ended up leaving, but they were subject to five-year non-compete agreements that expired in 2010.

     

    This blog from 2005 provides a good deal more color on what AVAD was and what it did. IT'S IMPORTANT – PLEASE READ!

     

    http://bit.ly/JV7SNa

     

    Rosewater is Joe Pic's vehicle to bring the original AVAD team back together and take it on the road.
    3 May 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    I'm patiently waiting for an Axion/Rosewater residential storage product en masse. Out here in Phoenix, I hoping by 2013 or 2014 we have a viable product choice. In fact, if Rosewater wants to test the efficacy of residential solar... why not Phoenix vice Ontario?

     

    When you marry the Phoenix sun with the possible cost effectiveness of Axion PbC storage batteries... well... we've got to be close to a cost effective solution.
    3 May 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Phoenix is a good choice too, in Ontario they are working with a utility company....it could have been the first to sign on, or there could be a hidden need.
    3 May 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    No utility company will offer much in the way of incentives to homeowners, associations, or organized areas of use until the utility companies study how much a residential storage unit ca save them.

     

    There might be a micro residential Cube out this year. But the market will be built when the local utilities offer a rebate to buy one. I am thankfil for the Ontario testing.
    Remember that Axion was originally a Canadian company and several Canadians are founding fathers of the company.

     

    I like the fact that existing relationships are being used here.
    3 May 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    At work today there was an article on a program, I think in Minnesota where they are going to put smart meters on about 100 homes; 30 of the homes are going to get a battery storage system, IIRC, the company is Silent Power Inc. I'll see if I can remember to get more specifics tomorrow (we get this from SNL)
    3 May 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Ok... I'm originally from Michigan... so I'm half Canadian, eh!

     

    I guess I'll let it slide that they chose my former neighbor (Ontario).

     

    Still think Phoenix should be a testing ground.
    4 May 2012, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    Correction: that info was from Minneapolis newspaper
    4 May 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • keefwotspeaksthetroof
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    Waiting waiting.......coming real soon.....send more MUNNY!
    Snorrrrrrrre!
    4 Apr 2014, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Vani will be presenting a report on the PC with Viridity and PJM at the ESA meeting in Washington, D.C. shortly after lunch.
    http://bit.ly/IG9VFC
    3 May 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Jveal
    Interesting mix of state and federal government reps...media...duke, abb, Pam, zbb! Mitsubishi
    3 May 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    jveal,
    I misread your post thinking that Vani would be presenting with Viridity and PJM which I don't think is the case, but would have been nice; but just to clarify, - Vani will be presenting on 5 May afternoon "Axion PbC® PowerCube™ PJM Demonstration".
    3 May 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Metro, you are correct. I noticed the grammatical error just before I saw your post.
    3 May 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    May 3: (Today)
    Axion PbC® PowerCube™ PJM Demonstration
    Vani Dantam Senior Vice President, Business Development, Sales, & Marketing, Axion Power International, Inc.
    3 May 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    it took three of us, but i think we finally got it correct.
    3 May 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Would have been cool, given that the Power Cube at Axion's HQ is in a shipping container attached to a truck, had Axion trucked that baby to the hotel in DC and let everyone walk thru it. Maybe even hook it up and have everyone see it actually working.
    3 May 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    There are a lot of people here at the ESA showing photos of their shipping containers full of batteries for "instant deployment". Most are about a 1 MW capacity each, with a variety of chemistries. Axion is not exhibiting, so there is no photo of the PowerCube. A lot of people have similar ideas.

     

    I am trying to get some useful numbers from other providers. Everyone claims to be cheaper, better, safer, etc., of course. Hard numbers not easy to get.
    3 May 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1706) | Send Message
     
    Look forward to hearing more from you about the ESA, Rick.
    I sure wish Axion was exhibiting.
    3 May 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick, keep us posted!
    3 May 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    You need to keep an eye out for Ryan Stanton, another Axionista who's apparently at ESA today.

     

    http://bit.ly/IHUhII
    3 May 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Thanks for keeping us updated. In order to be on the technological edge, we need someone at ESA to tweet their impressions every 30 minutes in some indecipherable language.;-)
    3 May 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Axion should not be in the business of building and selling power cubes, but in providing the energy storage. If the cost and performance are there, there can be many companies using Axion PbC.

     

    Extreme looks odd to me in that they apparently have a proprietary battery, but then build the whole system around it. That takes considerably more capital, and probably means their storage system itself is not enough to drive sales.
    3 May 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (144) | Send Message
     
    iJSwt, hcsim
    3 May 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    JohnM > "Extreme looks odd to me in that they apparently have a proprietary battery, but then build the whole system around it. That takes considerably more capital, and probably means their storage system itself is not enough to drive sales. "

     

    Not too long ago I might have said something along the same lines, John. Today, no way. Batteries are energy storage units as your comment suggests, but they are also system components.

     

    It is quite possible for AXPW to manufacture and market PowerCubes without detracting significantly from manufacture and sales of PbC batteries to other system integrators such as auto OEMs, NSC, Rosewater Energy, etc.
    3 May 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    My old trader friend used to say that on whichever side you see a lot of best bid/ask shares on Level II, the price is usually going in that direction.

     

    This morning, there's more shares (37k) at 44 cents at the ask than at the bid (5k), and so far, the action has been at 44 cents.

     

    Perhaps another sign of the slow grind up.

     

    Or, it could all change in five minutes, lol!
    3 May 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: If things have changed as this post suggests, ...

     

    http://bit.ly/JPQZiX

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Who knows what's happening with our lil off-the-radar OTCBB stk? But high-frequency trading? Sometimes we go over an hour without even one trade, then it's for, say, $2,000. Who cares?

     

    Sure seems like AXPW is an unlikely place for any pro to try to trade, except on the largest volume days. Not enough action. Seems to me it's actually been the opposite--remarkably steady, disciplined selling and buying. This is a place dominated by investors.
    3 May 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The really fascinating thing is that the buying has been every bit as disciplined over the last year. I give some Axionistas grief about being bottom feeders, but they've been every bit as brutally professional as the sellers. Mercifully, we don't draw much attention from the "this stock is going to the moon" crowd although some of us think it might.

     

    The reason I spend so much time participating in these Concentrators is that I want to understand the thinking and the motivation of the people who have put their money at risk to buy a ticket for the voyage. Assuming the Concentrator participants are a fair cross-section of the broader public base of Axion shareholders, I think it's a great group to be part of. These commenters did their homework before investing, know why they invested and generally have a good grasp on their goals. It's a far more stable group than the tip chasers.
    3 May 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Concur, and I'm here for the same reason. After AXPW plays out (probably way down the road, IMHO), it will be interesting to compare notes on this community with anyone that wants to do so, before moving on to the next stock.
    3 May 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: OTOH, we've seen days with over 2M shares traded.

     

    Computers are everywhere. Anyway, I wasn't thinking that HFT specifically was hammering on AXPW, but just thinking generally of the comments about Level 2 and how stocks are manipulated, if all I researched holds any water at all.

     

    I seem to frequently push your buttons.

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Likewise, it seems. 8^)

     

    I'm not a trader, and you've said you're new and learning, so any of our trading explanations/theories are often guesses, no? Mine are, anyway. Since no one that I know of here is claiming they ARE an expert trader (keep at it and I hope you become one), it's been fun and educational for me to throw out some ideas and see what comes back. Especially on slow days.

     

    The analytical side of me has to hold back a lot with the necessary brevity of these posts. For example, if you follow the items mentioned in your link, one by one, and try to explain how they relate to AXPW, what do you find? I don't know, but seems to me that the link's comment applies to much more actively traded stocks, not a backwater one like AXPW is at the moment.

     

    Lastly, I firmly believe that the vast majority of new traders will do badly (but certainly hope you buck the trend and do great!). Very similar to a lot of other "get rich quick" schemes--the real money is made by the suppliers. Take the $330 or $1,200 seminar money and run, whether it's real estate investing ("No money down!") or stock trading. Options trading is especially problematic. Makes my heart sad with all the stories I heard of people catching the fever and blowing their hard-earned life savings in a year or two. If the government already regulates several forms of addictive behavior, like gambling and drug use, sure seems like it's inconsistent to not equally regulate high-risk financial gambling.
    3 May 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1998) | Send Message
     
    What exactly is the benefit of having a powercube at my house?

     

    Thanks in advance.
    3 May 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You'd be hard pressed to justify a 500 kWh PowerCube at your house unless it's a really big house. Later this year we'll learn more about specifications for the residential mini-cube and Rosewater will be working with an Ontario utility and University to study all of the benefits to homeowners. Since I know that somebody else is going to study the question in detail, I'd rather not venture an off the cuff guess.
    3 May 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >thotdoc ... A good question. On an individual residence in a city or suburb I would think the answer would be not much reason at all. On a group of houses on a single transformer that metric might change. In Texas, if you could limit peak AC grid draw between 2 PM & 7 PM May to Sept, I would venture a guess that you could save $200/mo. on the bill.
    3 May 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    DRich: you gotit I think. There's a lot of push going for micro-grids - much more in Europe ATM - but even here we're seeing pockets of independent larger users getting the ability to both withstand grid failures, through back-up power, but also to isolate from the grid.

     

    A side-effect of that is the opportunity to actually reduce costs (avoiding peak-hour usage) and generate a little revenue (sell back to the grid), with FERC rulings of course, when there's on-site excess generation or storage capacity.

     

    We'll likely be last to get there due to entrenched interests, but we'll get there.

     

    Oh! I almost forget utilities avoiding infra-structure upgrade costs too.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... From a Macro-economic view a weak economy is good for the PowerCube & storage in general for just that reason. Utilities don't have demand to drive revenue enough to do anything but hold. Demand will rise but not enough to justify decommissioning all the old coal burners and building new larger NG capacity. Enter the storage sector to save the day.
    3 May 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    That savings only occurs if you have demand level pricing. Smart meters are being rolled out. The next phase is to have variable rates. I suspect there will be some push back on that. It's hard to replace your refrigerator just to prevent the defroster from going on during peak demand from 4 to 7.
    3 May 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Waiting for the day when PowerCubes make it on http://www.zazzle.com or the equivalent of http://bit.ly/Ip8SoG

     

    cause really now, who wants to put a plain ole trailer in their gated neighborhood?

     

    We need custom paint/design jobs!

     

    Naturally an outgrowth of the military camouflage versions :-)
    3 May 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Lol. Pimp my PC.
    3 May 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how one could do lifestyle advertising. What would the PC lifestyle entail?
    3 May 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    .0020 spread at the moment. that seems tight.
    3 May 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Yeah it was fun watching them arm wrestle over that 2/10ths of a penny.

     

    Like I've saide before, I though I was a tightwad. But even I caved and bought 1/2 penny above my target of $0.41 recently.

     

    OMG! I hope I don't live to rue the day! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Based on the rapid pace of today's trading, I predict that before trading ends we will see a big move of at least .001, not predicting which direction.
    3 May 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Well, it's reverting to form ATM. Through 13:01:

     

    Min. Pr: 0.4300
    Max Pr: 0.4549
    WVAP 0.43765
    Avg. Tr Sz 3509
    Buy:Sell 1.64

     

    But until we see daily market-maker short percentages back to normal, will we see much movement?

     

    426 Vol 2336112, Sht 449700 19.25% LHC 0.4000 0.4610 0.4180 b:s 1:1.60
    427 Vol 0297980, Sht 047025 15.78% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4110 b:s 2.11:1
    430 Vol 0542734, Sht 048465 08.93% LHC 0.4300 0.4700 0.4399 b:s 1:1.66
    501 Vol 0222824, Sht 008132 03.65% LHC 0.4300 0.4500 0.4301 b:s 1.23:1
    502 Vol 0143270, Sht 016000 11.17% LHC 0.4300 0.4549 0.4410 b:s 1:1.39

     

    Traditional TA would say the price compression suggests movement coming as volumes fall. But we've seen this movie before with (AXPW) and it seems to run much longer than the normal ~100-minute movie.

     

    Still in consolidation, still in cons ... even the paint that was watching the "The Road to Commercialization" (Thanks to Crosby and Hope) movie got up and left the theater.

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Vani has to be hip deep in his presentation right now. When he wraps, and attendees get a break, expect a flurry of buy orders via blackberry ;)
    3 May 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I hope he is up until at least midnight answering questions from perspective buyers.
    3 May 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Forgot about that completely. I wonder if they'll make some slides or information available to the general public afterwards.

     

    D
    3 May 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (519) | Send Message
     
    Bang has been quiet lately. He is finishing up on the PbC ordering App for the presentation. Bang, if Blackberry and Anderoid are ready, go ahead and release it. iPhone takes longer to get into Apple. App Store.
    3 May 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    I like your optimism even though intellectually I doubt it! Emotionally it matches me though.

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    You know he's been successful if they start *insisting* that they buy the next bottle of wine! :-)

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    They should - it will be public information.
    3 May 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Well, maybe I owe JP one more - my (TSLA) long puts are +17.6% ATM (ignoring friction) on rising volume in the reversal to down.

     

    I think I'll get risky and see if the underlying will drop to the next supports at ~$32 (potential psychological "round number" support) and/or $31.65, a prior price point support.

     

    With a delta of -58%, I might make out like a bandit if I'm reading things right. And with quarterly reports coming up ... Nah! Elon might say how rosy things are going to be and the proverbial 2 x 4 that JP delivered to the EVangelical mules might be nullified. Mules are a notoriously stubborn bunch.

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think there's a better than even chance that Tesla's Quarterly Financial Statements will include a footnote that says:

     

    "The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that the Company will continue as a going concern. The Company lost $72 million during the three months ended March 31, 2012 and as of that date the Company's remaining working capital was $110 million. The Company's financial resources will not provide sufficient funds for the Company’s operations beyond ____, as those operations currently exist. Subsequent financings will be required to fund the Company’s ongoing operations, working capital, and capital expenditures beyond ______. No assurances can be given that the Company will be successful in arranging the further financing needed to continue the execution of its business plan, which includes the development and commercialization of new products, or even if further financing is available, upon what terms. Failure to obtain such financings on terms acceptable to the Company’s management will require management to substantially curtail, if not cease, operations, which will result in a material adverse effect on the financial position and results of operations of the Company. The consolidated financial statements do not include any adjustments to reflect the possible future effects on the recoverability and classification of assets or the amounts and classification of liabilities that might occur if the Company is unable to continue as a going concern."

     

    The faithful may be happy with soothing words from St. Elon. The professionals will be far less sanguine.
    3 May 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Heh! John, I'm a life-long motorcycle rider. Are you encouraging me to get risky? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    OT, HTL, but my latest trade turned out pretty slick!

     

    About a week and a half ago, I bought 1000 shares of NovaGold at $6.64, after noticing a triple bottom was in. But there was a catch. I think owners of record as of April 26, got 1 share of newly spun off NovaCopper (NCQ) for every 6 shares of NovaGold they owned.

     

    Monday, I sold the 1000 shares of Novagold at $7.14, for a quick ~ $500 gain. Then today, I sold off the 166 "free" shares of NovaCopper at $3.48, and ran for the hills, with another $577.68 pocketed, less the friction.

     

    BTW, today, NovaGold went under $6 per, so it's even sweeter.

     

    I know it's small potatoes, making a grand in a little over a week; still felt good.

     

    Back to my other hobby.
    3 May 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Great play and luck too!

     

    As to "small potatoes", I live on them - risk management *and* a little compounding put my ever-learning soul at ease!

     

    Like I always think, it's better than a sharp stick in the eye!

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Kinda sounds like a guy wishing his investment thesis allowed him to short a stock doesn't it?
    3 May 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    You have a sharp eye for the opportunity. You did good!
    3 May 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    This brings up a topic just to nip-in-the-bud regarding Axion. When might we see a going concern statement again from them? My suspicion is that we may not ever again if in fact revenue continues ramping and by the time an auditor would be forced to disclose the statement i.e. Q3 report we will be close enough to cash flow breakeven (2013) that the auditors won't have to include it? This is just my rudimentary understanding of the process so I would like to hear what you think.
    3 May 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I like investing where there's limited downside and unlimited upside. Shorts have always scared me because the upside is always limited to the selling price but a wrong call can cost a fortune. I guess I'm just testicularly challenged.
    3 May 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    We didn't see a going concern last time around until September. As sales ramp and make a contribution to overhead, the runway gets longer. If sales are ramping at a rate of 300% a year and Axion flips to cash flow break-even next year, we may be able to avoid the issue entirely.
    4 May 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    From: GREEN CAR CONGRESS

     

    2013 BMW X1 for US to offer brake regen, start/stop and ECO PRO mode

     

    3 May 2012

     

    BMW will bring the globally successful (275,000 units sold so far) X1 to the US in the fall of 2012. (Earlier post.) Unlike other BMW SAVs, X1s destined for the US will be built in BMW’s Leipzig, Germany plant. The popularity of the X1 around the globe has been such that X1s for the Chinese market will now be built in a newly opened plant at Tiexi in Shenyang Province.

     

    The arrival of the BMW X1 to the US coincides with an update that includes exterior and interior refinements as well as a range of BMW EfficientDynamics technologies. All models feature Brake Energy Regeneration while the X1 sDrive28i and xDrive28i models also benefit from Auto Start/Stop and ECO PRO mode to further reduce fuel consumption.

     

    EfficientDynamics and ECO PRO mode. The new BMW X1 includes a range of technologies to increase efficiency. All model variants come equipped with Brake Energy Regeneration. An ECO PRO mode and the Auto Start-Stop function are available in the new BMW X1 sDrive28i and xDrive28i models.

     

    ECO PRO provides efficiency-optimized driving with targeted adjustments to the accelerator mapping and the shift characteristics of the automatic transmission. Moreover, the output of electrically operated functions such as the seat heating, climate control system and exterior mirror heating are regulated to ensure highly efficient energy management. A special display informs the driver of the extra range gleaned through these measures.

     

    BMW TwinPower Turbo technology. The BMW X1 sDrive28i and xDrive28i feature BMW’s newest 2.0-liter TwinPower Turbo 4-cylinder engine (N20). This engine delivers maximum power of 240 hp (179 kW) at 5,000 rpm while the maximum torque of 260 lb-ft (353 N·m) is developed at 1,250 rpm and remains constant up to 4,800 rpm. It is mated to BMW’s latest 8-speed Steptronic automatic. This combination powers the X1 sDrive28i and xDrive28i from 0-60 mph in 6.2 and 6.3 seconds respectively.

     

    Preliminary EPA mileage estimates are 24 mpg city/33 mpg highway/27 mpg combined (9.8, 7.1, 8.7 L/100km) for the X1 sDrive28i while the AWD X1 xDrive28i has preliminary EPA estimates of 22 mpg city/30 mpg highway/25 mpg combined (10.7, 7.8, 9.4 L/100 km).

     

    The engine, the most powerful in a new generation of 4-cylinder engines designed in accordance with the BMW EfficientDynamics strategy, is modeled on the current multi-award-winning inline 6-cylinder with BMW TwinPower Turbo technology (N55). The technology combines High Precision Direct Injection, Double-Vanos variable camshaft timing and VALVETRONIC variable valve timing with twin-scroll turbocharging.

     

    VALVETRONIC, Double-Vanos and High Precision Direct Injection. The combination of a high power output and a simultaneous reduction in emissions is achieved by VALVETRONIC variable valve timing and Double-Vanos variable camshaft timing. The latest generation of the VALVETRONIC system features a faster-acting, optimized stepper motor with integrated sensor. Seamlessly variable control of intake valve lift dispenses with the need for a throttle butterfly. Instead, the air mass is controlled inside the engine, resulting in faster response. At the same time, pumping losses have been reduced to a minimum.

     

    The excellent efficiency is also due to the High Precision Direct Injection system. Centrally positioned between the valves, solenoid injectors precisely control the supply of fuel. The fuel is injected very close to the spark plug, with a maximum injection pressure of 200 bar (2900 psi), resulting in clean and homogeneous combustion. The cooling effect of the directly injected fuel also results in a higher compression ratio than on port injection engines, bringing further efficiency improvements.

     

    X1 xDrive35i. Exclusive to the North American market is the X1 xDrive35i featuring BMW’s award-winning 3.0-liter TwinPower Turbo inline 6-cylinder engine (N55). The N55 is the pioneer of a new generation of engines in which BMW TwinPower Turbo technology with High Precision Direct Injection and VALVETRONIC variable valve timing plus a twin scroll turbo made its debut. It will be mated to a 6-speed Steptronic automatic transmission.

     

    The BMW X1 sDrive28i and X1 xDrive28i will retail for $31,545 and $33,245 respectively while the X1 xDrive35i will start at $39,345. All prices include $895 Destination and Handling.

     

    European diesels. In Europe, the new BMW X1 offers a new range of advanced diesel engines. Every rear-wheel drive X1 there now emits less than 130g/km of CO2, and with the option of a new eight-speed automatic gearbox combined with BMW’s award-winning EfficientDynamics technologies, the new BMW X1 range is more efficient than before.
    3 May 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Great find Albert. It lets us hope.
    Web address of original article:
    http://bit.ly/IpEiu4
    3 May 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    Vani finished his presentation. I will see if I can post it.

     

    He summarized Axion's markets as start/stop, utility, residential, military, and locomotives. No mention of oil platforms.

     

    He said that Norfolk expected to have 50-75 locomotives in the next five years, without any comment whether this was just switchers or included long distance locomotives, too.

     

    Current manufacturing capacity of batteries is about 3,000 per day.

     

    He reviewed some of the specs and advantages of the PbC, which this group is already familiar with. In toto, nothing jaw dropping new. It is also possible I misheard something; I expected the total locomotives to have been a higher number.

     

    I will have more info later.
    3 May 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    What was the context of this meeting? Sorry if you've posted this info before.
    3 May 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    This is the Electricity Storage Association annual meeting, in Washington DC. http://bit.ly/K5VdEc
    3 May 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update. Was there any specific information about how the Powercube was working in Viridity/PJM system given during presentation?
    3 May 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    Rick, thanks for the report. 50-75 locomotives in five years for NSC sounds respectable to me given DRich's estimate a few days back of 100 - 150 rebuilds annually for all railroads. IINM, the other Tier 1 RRs (measured by locomotive counts) are a bit larger than NSC.

     

    50 - 75 NSC PbC locomotives would mean an average of 5 - 8 diesel-to-electric conversions per year. Other RRs are yet to be heard from.
    3 May 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    nope
    3 May 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Thanks for the report. NSC may only be planning to purchase batteries for 10 to 15 locomotives a year over the next five years, but other railroad companies will jump in. When the original Green Goat came out there were hundreds of purchase orders. This info is huge! If there are no major problems with the launch of the first two locomotives, it gives a good foundation for the company to survive. Add to it all other applications that are in progress and the company gets ready for the launching pad.
    3 May 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick!

     

    It's really, really nice to have boots on the ground.

     

    Looking forward to what additional you can post.

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    Link to Vani's presentation http://bit.ly/K4VM24
    3 May 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    If only NS's switchers, than that's about half their existing fleet of 123 (source for the locomotive numbers: JP's recent Locomotive article)--50/123 = approx 40% and 75/123 = approx 60%.

     

    If it's for switchers and OTRs, that's a small %age, it seems, e.g., 50/4,143 = 1.2% and 75/4,143 = 1.8% (assuming 4,143 is the correct number to use). Seems like that would be a very tepid reaction out of NS--kinda like, why bother?. Of course, there is the other major RRs.
    3 May 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Isn't that an aver of 10-15/yr? (50/5yrs - 75/5 yrs)

     

    I assumed if the benefit of going with PbC was significant, the RRs would make the change in addition to the regular rebuild rate, which, incidentally, is painfully slow--100-150 out of a fleet for the 4 largest Class I railroads of 23,372 units? Something is WAY off here.

     

    Quoting from JP's recent locomotive article, "it seems reasonable to asume that at least half of the switcher fleet and up to 20 percent of the freight locomotive fleet would switch to battery power over the next decade if the second-generation NS 999 and the planned long-haul locomtive perform as expected. The batteries required to support such a transition would cost something on the order of $4.4 billion." [hope you don't mind being quoted, JP].

     

    So, 50-75 would be about half of NS's switcher fleet, as it turns out, but < 2% of their total fleet. So something's amiss.

     

    Perhaps it's 50-75 PER YEAR for the next five years, or the 50-75 is really only for the switchers.
    3 May 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since NS only owns about 1/6 of the US locomotive fleet, the implied market for all four Class I Railroads would be 300 to 450 units over five years with a battery value of $500,000 to $1,000,000 per unit.

     

    $150 to $450 million of revenue potential from a single niche certainly beats the heck out of a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
    3 May 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3964) | Send Message
     
    I have to reluctantly admit to not being the sharpest tack in the wall, but am not on the floor with the paper clips either. I can see many resistance points to a ramp up of conversion, not to be negative, but realistic. Facilities to make the conversions, skilled employees, and the time required to prove in the field that this works. Many companies want solid proof that something works and in this situation they have been bitten by the first version of NS999 and the Green Goat. I am confident that this application will work and prove out. At the same time recognise that there is inertia in the industry that must be overcome. I refuse to allow hopeful expectations to cause anxiety and overcome what I realistically know will be a winning situation that will develop in its own good time. Guessing games can be fun, but shouldn't be taken too seriously. JMO
    3 May 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Thanks for the info. Nice to see some real data generated from the PowerCube. (Nice to see some new graphics in general, too)
    3 May 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    What did you think of Vani's presentation overall and his delivery?
    3 May 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I would add that while Thelen (of NS), in his recent interview regarding new locomotives technologies, indicated that battery-powered locomotives have a very promising profile compared with regular diesel, he also made it clear that NS is actively exploring other options, such as a natural gas switcher project that is getting underway (I know, DRich has recently panned natural gas for locomotives, probably rightly so, but the point is that NS is nonetheless pursuing it).
    He also mentioned and put emphasis upon projects to produce diesel fuel from alternative sources.
    So, for whatever reasons, NS is still open to different options for over-hauling their fleet, and so I'm trying to be cautious in my expectations.

     

    http://bit.ly/y0jSKi
    (last section of the interview is the relevant one, this has been posed before)
    3 May 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff Rick, thanks. It appears that Axion would have enough or will have enough data to potentially submit an abstract with the IEEE.
    3 May 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    I'm doing something wrong - I keep getting a redirect screen flash by that takes me to

     

    drive.google.com and the rest is /start?authuser=0#home

     

    with no opportunity to see what I think you're linking to.

     

    Any hints?

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I posted the pdf to my google account. Perhaps if you are using gmail you need to sign out? Just a guess.
    3 May 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Thanks again,
    Was just wondering if Vani's seminar was well attended respective to other presentations, and if there were questions and interest expressed. thanks.
    3 May 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    Mr I > "D-inv, Isn't that an aver of 10-15/yr? (50/5yrs - 75/5 yrs) "

     

    :-) Geez. (Wiping egg from face.) What can I say other than even the low number tossed out by Vani exceeds the numbers of my fingers and toes.
    3 May 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    I tried that before posting, but it gave me the same results.

     

    I'll try clearing the browser cache - sometimes that bites ... figuratively too! :-))

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove

     

    EDDIT: well that took me to a login page again - which is how it started before. No joy in Mudville.

     

    EDDIT # 2: Got it! Went to another login on my Linux box and used that browser, so there's something persistent about Google's or browser's memory. I probably should have cleared cookies too!

     

    Anyhoo - thanks. Reading now.

     

    EDDIT # 3: And then I can copy the URL from that other browser to this (my normal one) and it works fine and dandy!

     

    This has been a PS announcement for others JIC! :-))
    3 May 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    HTL, my initial view of the page was supersized text, etc. which I was unable to read until using "ctrl-" several times. And, on trying to print the document (there is a print function on the page) only one page printed.
    3 May 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    I've not tried to print and I'm not Windows knowledgeable, but did you get the page that allows you to select print range? IIRC, a ctrl-P would bring that up.

     

    The text size would be affected only if you are viewing normal text, but your view a PDF. Try using the magnifying glass "+" and "-" at the top of the display document (if you can see it). If not, if you can see the menu bar, select view and try changing there.

     

    I finally got my problem fixed (edited my post with details).

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz,
    With all due respect, don't know if this is appropriate question for public forum. Maybe if you wanted to PM Rick on this. As the question is worded, it would imply that you are inquiring about professionalism. This question could also be very subjective.
    3 May 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3126) | Send Message
     
    Vani was part of a group presentation on microgrids that was well attended, with very few questions for anybody at the end.
    3 May 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, lol.

     

    While those solid but modest numbers are WAY lower than moon-shot ones, I would think they're reflected in TG's $128mil rev's for 2013. Which means about $90 million PbC sales to come from non-NS sources ($128mil - flooded of super-ballpark $28mil if you assume 40% growth of those in 2012 and 2013, - about $10mil for NS = $90mil). So I gotta think that TG thinks Power Cube and s/s sales are gonna be huge next year. Still a chance for those mkts to be moon-shots, anyway. Or the 50-75 NS rebuilds could be for switchers only. Or the other RR's adoption rates could be much bigger than NS'.

     

    Musing about multiples and the stk price, currently the mkt cap is about $50mil, which, using round numbers is 6x 2011's actual rev's of $8mil and 1.5x forward 2012 rev's of $32mil. Using the same multiples early next year, before a stk offering and assuming all sorts of other things, gives us $1.70/share for both 6x 2012 actual rev of $32mil and 1.5x forward 2013 rev's of $128mil. Pretty cool how internally consistent that is...did I just back into their spreadsheet? lol. It's actually how the math works with 300% rev growth and beginning multiples of 6x and 1.5x.

     

    Carying forward all the relationships into early 2014 gives a stk price of about $6.50. THAT is VERY interesting...The Eagle has landed.
    3 May 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    > HTL, thanks for the suggestions. My difficulties with viewing the .pdf and printing did not recur on returning to the site following a system shut down for "Honey do" activities and reboot. In fact, clicking on the site's .pdf print icon actually prompted download of the document which I have saved.
    3 May 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Do we have reason to believe that other RRs could do their own PbC conversions or that NSC would sell them PbC locos?
    3 May 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'd tend to view 50-75 locomotives in the NS fleet as a reasonable good faith field study that's big enough to give them long-term system wide operating data. I'd also expect the other railroads in its class to follow suit with their own studies. That would only be 300 to 450 units nationwide, but anything smaller would be seen as green-wash instead of a serious effort.

     

    Railroads have a tremendous incentive to share technologies because the big four are regulated as equals and it does no good for NS to clean up it's rail yards if UP and BNSF still have dirty ones. If everybody cleans up their act new regulation can be avoided. If there are laggards, new regulation becomes a certainty. If you're a railroad you want everybody to live up to your standards.
    4 May 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Gracias
    Thanks for your time and for their reports.
    I liked the presentation, but it is a topic that does not dominate, then little understand.
    I like that they (AXPW) can display graphics and so much the results, everything indicates that developments are doing well.
    My question is whether other competitors: ZBB, AONE, ALTI, etc.. also show the results in this way?
    Have a great day!!
    4 May 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Even if these revenues and multiples were to become true, don't forget that there will be many more shares around. 200 million is my guesstimate.
    4 May 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Interestingly, what the capital structure would look like before the ball really got rolling was a question that I was pondering before I decided to start my position last year.

     

    I also guesstimated that it would be close to 200M. However, I hope this guesstimate is about 50M shares too high.
    4 May 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    85M share issuance? Wow, that would be awesome! Of course, we can not predict an 85M share issuance without accounting for the price to appreciate and reflect that 300% growth, right? So, let's call it a buck twenty-five -- 85M shares at a buck (give 'em a healthy discount) = $85M bucks. You must think they have some pretty large orders coming down the pike for that kind of raise...cool.
    4 May 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Metro
    Respectfully disagree.
    Type of info presented, content, context, reaction...Rick's perspective...albeit subjective, would be of value.

     

    Based on my experience though, Any private post presentation, post event conversations might provide some insight.
    Hopefully, TG will shed some light on it in the next cc.

     

    Rick, very much obliged for your input and feedback.
    5 May 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    A little more support for the flipper theory of who's selling: $.4375/$.35 = a 25% gross profit exactly (excluding commish).

     

    A nice round number, just as $.42/$.35 = 20% and $.4025 = 15%.

     

    And as $.455 = 30%, and $.4725 = 35%.

     

    Some of these prices sound very familiar, don't they?
    3 May 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I suspect as they thin out their position they would let more ride? Just seems like what I would do but, then again, I am at least a year or two off from being a "high-net worth" individual.
    3 May 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    A Greentech article was linked to in a recent APC, but here's Viridity Energy's 4/24/12 take on recent developments with the Phily ABB/Saft Subway system experiments: http://bit.ly/IAlPOW

     

    "Over the next month, the SEPTA pilot team will conduct a full-scale demonstration of regenerative capture and reuse, including regulation performance testing. Finally, the project will enable the simultaneous process of regenerative capture, regulation performance, and energy market participation utilizing Viridity Energy’s VPower™ optimizer to select which market to participate in based upon market pricing, battery state of charge, and availability of regenerative energy from the trains. "

     

    Not surprisingly, there's no mention in this PR about a second project which MIGHT use the PbC instead of Saft (as "suggested" in the previous linked/discussed Greentech article: http://bit.ly/ISOQ6y
    3 May 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    Holy moly! I hope they aren't offering the s/s versions with the standard AGM! I would think they'd know better, all history considered.

     

    But, we would've seen some kind of PR from somewhere if they were using the PbC, so I guess they just plan on taking whatever lumps.

     

    Good info Carlos!

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I checked in with my Altoona contact on Monday 4/30. He responded that day, just didn't get around to posting till today.

     

    Not surprisingly, NS 999 was (on 4/30) still set aside next to the water treatment plant. The "status update" some of noticed was only added because of the recent NS news release and they thought it was important to note that they're working on improving it, even if they're not physically working on the engine itself just yet.

     

    Q: Once a "form factor" for the racks is established, would an outside vendor be involved in building them if this became a serious business plan?

     

    A: It's possible I suppose. The new cabs being installed at Juniata were NS-designed but are built by a local heavy equipment manufacturer.

     

    Q: Can you offer any insight on how long the process of rebuilding an old engine into a yard switcher might take in the future?

     

    A: NS 2911 went into the shop in 8/2008 to be stripped down to the frame for 999. 7/2009 the 999 was spotted mostly completed and it was finished 8/2009. If these were to enter full scale production like the SD60E or SD40E rebuilds, you could expect them to be converted in around 4 to 5 months as long as part are available.

     

    Q: From the NS press release, It seems that the OTR version will at the least have a lot more batteries. Have you heard anything about doing an OTR prototype at Altoona? Any guesses on how much longer it would take to build? I'm not sure if they're still doing simulations in Roanoke and Penn State on the OTRs or not.

     

    A: A road version wouldn't take much longer than a yard version.

     

    Q: Any hints on how future locomotives of either type will be numbered, and how that kind of information gets released?

     

    A: Have not heard of planned numbers yet. Sometimes we don't find out until they finish them.

     

    Q: In general, I'm wondering how Altoona might "ramp up" production wise if things really work out. Do you think more people would be hired, or facilities built (or added on to,) or do you think they would just do less work for other railroads?

     

    A: It's really hard to say. During the steam era, the shop was way, way, way busier than it is now, with a lot more employees working in the same space. They built several new locomotives from scratch per month. They don't have a whole lot of room to build new buildings, but there is a pair of large buildings used for nothing more than storage. I believe the capacity is there in terms of space under roof, but probably not manpower.

     

    I should add that most people are extremely doubtful that a battery powered locomotive (especially a road version) will work on this scale.
    3 May 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    And in honor of that last (perfectly understandable comment:) http://bit.ly/IMQLaE
    3 May 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    When everyone believes, we'll be closer to $5 than fitee cents.
    3 May 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Wtblanchard, thanks for all the due diligence with Altoona. The next time you write your contact, I wonder if it might be possible and fruitful for you to ask for more details about why 'most people' are doubtful about whether a battery powered locomotive can work. Do they doubt the battery because of their previous experience with the failure of EnerSys's Odyssey, or are their doubts founded on something else?
    4 May 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19535) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW):
    Min. Pr: 0.4300, Max Pr: 0.4400
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 120, MaxTrSz: 18500
    Vol 171530, AvTrSz: 4184
    VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.4373
    Buy:Sell 1:1.04

     

    HardToLove
    3 May 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz> There is almost no chance IMHO of Axion not raising capital again in 2013, and most likely in the first quarter but I think the timing could be anywhere from Q4 2012 to Q1 2013. I believe there will ultimately be another much larger capital raise after the 2013 capital raise that would provide funds for significant expansion of PbC carbon electrode production. It is possible the 2013 capital raise might allow some expansion of PbC electrode production but that will depend upon the stock's price less a discount at the time of the capital raise and how much money can be realized.

     

    What I have been wrestling with in my mind is how to time purchases and core trades around these two events - particularly the 2013 capital raise. Another concern I have been considering is the consecutive 300% YOY growth targets TG expressed in the last CC. Existing stockholders who are following the stock closely are going to be carefully reading every future 10Q for confirmation of these goals being reached. Axion stock has not fared well when quarterly reports disappoint for any reason, or "going concern" statements are made - even if those going concern statements are only proforma in nature and not real risks of business failure.

     

    There was to little money raised in the last capital raise to avoid another capital raise in early 2013 and no way the going concern statements can be avoided later this year IMHO. My objective to to buy heavily when there is blood in the streets again. Timing of when that will occur is what occupies my mind now., I also want some confirmation of the 300% YOY growth TG predicted.

     

    Axion is still in the Valley of Death but not as deep as previously. Timing stock purchases for the rest of the journey out of death valley is where I will be focused for quite a while into the future.
    3 May 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    My understanding is that going concern statement are necessary only when the companies day-to-day operations will have to cease if no more capital is raised within a 12 month time period.

     

    The $8M raise plus the $2M on hand at Dec. 2011 will never be enough for manufacturing expansion so the raising of capital will absolutely be necessary but we may get through without a going concern statement since cash flow breakeven takes care of day-to-day operations, were not there yet but as we approach it through revenue increasing the current capital usage gets stretched. I am just not good enough to break the numbers down and figure out when/if a going concern statement is coming.
    3 May 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    bang- there are a lot of cheap options expiring in June 2013, so _if_ we have the cash flow to make it that far and a few positive news stories to lift the stock price, the financing may not be necessary. For instance, Quercus has 10M options at $0.75 strike expiring in June 2013 which would raise $7.5 million when exercised... I haven't looked at the 14A proxy statement in a few days, but there are some cheap options expiring in a time frame that could prevent another down financing round.

     

    So, I at least believes there's _some_ chance we will not need to raise capital on 2013. ...My $0.02
    3 May 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Also, if we need money expressly for expansion of PbC electrodes to meet demand - debt may begin to make more sense than equity? (Too little production capacity sounds like a great problem to have)
    3 May 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    It's very doubtful that Quercus exercises their options. that has been discussed much here before.
    3 May 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    If the pps is > $0.75 and options are in the money why wouldn't they do a cashless exercise via a broker or some other entity?
    3 May 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    JP is the authority on when it is required. I thought it was six months and not a year. Axion has itself stated a capital raise will be necessary in the 1st Quarter 2013, so regardless of the requirement it will become a fact that a going concern statement will be required at some point unless Axion raises additional capital prior to the required reporting date.,
    3 May 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    All those shares sold at the mkt would absolutely crush the stock.
    3 May 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Agreed LT. From JP APC 47 using search feature on APC website:

     

    "Quercus is selling Axion shares every day because it needs cash to keep its other portfolio companies from dying of starvation. The solar company is just one of many hungry mouths. If Quercus had $7.5 million to exercise its warrants, it would not be selling Axion at a 75% loss.

     

    At a $1 stock price the warrants would only be worth two-bits. If Quercus sits on the warrants, there's a chance that the stock price will reach $2.25 per share before they expire. That would give Quercus a chance to get out of Axion with its principal intact. If the price is higher than $2.25 Quercus might even make some serious money.

     

    I see no reasonable chance that the warrants will be exercised until the 11th hour on the day before they expire."
    3 May 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Well said BW.
    Quercus is no fool. They will never spend money on the warrants until the very last day.
    3 May 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    BW > "There was to little money raised in the last capital raise to avoid another capital raise in early 2013 and no way the going concern statements can be avoided later this year IMHO."

     

    Perhaps. And perhaps not. 2011 cash burn amounted to $2.0 million. Axion had $2 mil cash on hand at 12/31 and has since added $8.4 mil.

     

    JP's Q4 $10 mil. annual rate toll contract revenue estimate suggests the toll contract alone could provide enough profitable revenue growth to cover the cost of Vani Dantam's salary. According to TG, capital expenditures were pretty much completed in '11Q3, suggesting $0.5 mil. in 2011 cash outlays will no recur. The recently announced $475,000 NSC purchase order is new money and the expected NSC P.O. for OTR locomotive suggests a further $900,000 is probable. Add in several PowerCube orders, another NSC locomotive P.O., or some shipments for S/S autos and Axion could enter 2013 with both P.O.s and cash in hand.

     

    OTOH, another capital raise might be prompted by enough PbC sales to generate need for expansion of PbC electrode assembly capacity.
    3 May 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Per JP, upon issue the shares would be restricted, which means they have to be held for 6 months before resale is permitted. I'm not sure if they can be sold in a private transaction, however, or if the warrants themselves could be, for that matter.
    3 May 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Respect both of you immensely. But, if either of you think Quercus will cash out those 75 cent shares in the eleventh hour, or worse, all in one day....

     

    Quite juxtapose to the marathon record pace of which they have been liquidating.

     

    Ugh! Also remember, warrants can always be renegotiated toward a lower price. That, too, could occur.

     

    All along, though, I have believed that Quercus will come out on top with their warrants, and that's a damned fine reason why they have been liquidating the common. It's really a sage move, if it works out for them.

     

    New-ish investors will never understand this, unless they read this blog. And even then....
    4 May 2012, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The only way the Quercus warrants will get exercised is in a public stock offering where an underwriter places the underlying shares with new investors. The most likely scenario would be an Axion offering where Quercus "piggy-backs" its warrant shares and the first $.75 of the Quercus proceeds get paid to Axion to exercise the warrants.

     

    The one thing that will not happen is a cash exercise by Quercus with a slow distribution of the underlying shares into the market.
    4 May 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    D-INV> "2011 cash burn amounted to $2.0 million." From the most recent 10K just released at the 4th Qtr 2011 CC. "At December 31, 2011, we had $2.0 million of cash and cash equivalents compared to $13.3 million at December 31, 2010."

     

    Cash burn was 11M for the year, or a little over 2.5 million average a quarter, however, capX expenditure completions I think pulled it down to around 2M for the 4th quarter, but only a rough guess.

     

    The 10K is unequivical about the 2013 capital raise:

     

    "We believe that the currently available funds at December 31, 2011, along with the receipt of $8.6 million in proceeds from our February 2012 registered direct common stock offering and internally generated funds from product sales, will provide sufficient financial resources for current development stage operations, working capital, and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2013.

     

    Subsequent financings will be required to fund the Company’s ongoing operations, working capital, and capital expenditures beyond March 31, 2013. No assurances can be given that the Company will be successful in arranging the further financing needed to continue the execution of its business plan, which includes the development and commercialization of new products. Failure to obtain such financings will require management to substantially curtail, if not cease, operations, which will result in a material adverse effect on the financial position and results of operations of the Company.

     

    The need to secure additional capital to fund continued operations past the first quarter of 2013 is the result of various factors. In addition, although we have made very significant progress with our PbC® technology, the adoption process, and the general path to commercial viability, has been longer than we originally anticipated. In addition, we will need working capital to fund our anticipated continued growth of sales in traditional batteries and PbC products."

     

    I think the smart way to maintain a long term investment in Axion is to recognize events that could affect the stock price irrespective of the business's performance. Today we have great performance and a poor stock price. While I won't speculate on pps numbers, we know the capital raise will be at a discount to the price at the time of the raise and we've seen what can occur after every Axion capital raise in the past. I don't believe "next time will be different." All I plan to do is capitalize on these events when they occur in the future.
    3 May 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    BW> "Cash burn was 11M for the year, or a little over 2.5 million average a quarter, however, capX expenditure completions I think pulled it down to around 2M for the 4th quarter, but only a rough guess. "

     

    Geez. Thanks for correcting my error on cash burn, BW. It appears in my interest to take a break and defer any further analysis/decisionmaking to another day.
    3 May 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The change in cash for the year was $11.3 million. The phrase *cash burn* is market jargon for "Net cash used by operating activities," which was $8.2 million for the year.

     

    Last year Axion generated $1.2 million of gross profit on $8 million of sales. Without that $1.2 million of gross profit, the cash burn would have been $9.5 million. That's the operative number we need to work with.

     

    If margins stay at 2011 levels but sales are $32 million, the anticipated gross margin contribution would be $4.8 million. Offsetting that against a $9.5 million pre-margin burn rate takes you to a net cash burn for the year of $4.7 million. If margins improve because of higher PbC sales, the 2012 burn will be lower.

     

    Axion will need additional financing, but it will need the financing for plant expansion rather than operating loss maintenance. Being conservative with estimates is always a healthy thing. Digging a massive sucking hole where none exists is not healthy.
    4 May 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I was not trying to talk in terms of "cash burn" so any mistake on my part was unintentional. I was more focused on the change in cash for the year being 11.3 million.

     

    The only point I was really trying to make is a capital raise will be necessary by the end of Q1 2013. I am not speculating on how big a capital raise or the purpose beyond Axion's statement as follows: "In addition, we will need working capital to fund our anticipated continued growth of sales in traditional batteries and PbC products."
    4 May 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Growing revenues under the flooded battery contract will not require additional working capital because of the way the deal is structured. Growing PbC revenues will require additional working capital, as will plant expansion.

     

    I'm the CPA and securities lawyer in this discussion and I have no earthly idea when more money will be needed. I do know to an absolute certainty that any event that's important enough to force a capital raise will be good news long before it's a cash demand.

     

    It's important to learn from experience, but to not learn more lessons from an experience than the experience contains. Financings to obtain necessary survival money are painful for existing stockholders. Financings to obtain necessary growth capital are things of joy. Extrapolating the pain of a survival financing round to the likely terms of a growth financing round will lead to the wrong conclusion every time.

     

    There is no reasonable scenario where Axion will need big piles of fresh cash to sustain a failing business. Therefore the next financing cannot be viewed as a threat, particularly when it's a year down the road.
    4 May 2012, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    This is a key statement from the above 10K excerpt: "In addition, we will need working capital to fund our anticipated continued growth of sales in traditional batteries and PbC products."

     

    300% YOY growth requires 300% more working capital. You can't grow a business with retained earnings only and I think Axion would be loath to use any form of debt outside long term state or federal money. I think the capital raises are necessary and make sense. If you have any corporate management experience in a manufacturing environment you know how critical it is to have the necessary increased working capital required to support growth.
    3 May 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    For those interested, here is a link to the ZBB presentation today at the ESA conference - http://bit.ly/K5D1M0
    4 May 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Stefan.

     

    I'm a ZBB and AXPW stockholder, but AXPW's presentation was actually more enlightening (and encouraging) to me. The closest thing to factual data presented by ZBB were the ratings of the EnerStore systems deployed.

     

    I'll take real, messy data (from the Viridity PowerCube project) over pictures and bullet points any day.

     

    Unfortunately, I assume the audience wouldn't appreciate real data. They're probably business/marketing types.
    4 May 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I also was hoping for more substantive "data" from the ZBB presentation ... I think that the IEEE call for abstracts for technical papers would make a good platform for a well thought out technical paper discussing the data they have generated from their projects.
    4 May 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    Just when you think you have eradicated the big sellers, piddling about with a 20% gain (compared to what we all know can be done) and driving the stock forever downward, we are most likely about to go down this dilution/financing road yet again.
    My fear is we will never get far enough ahead to completely eradicate the non Axionista investors, who may keep the stock in a downward trend for a long long time.

     

    The only saving grace will be orders in the magnitude of $25m+, and not just one or two of them.

     

    Lets pray that the next round (whenever necessary) goes off at over a buck and a quarter, then we can perhaps see that the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train coming (unless it is #999 then that would be OK )

     

    I think a lot of my frustration and anxiety could be assuaged during the next cc, as it sounds like we will be able to ask some pertinent questions, and maybe TG will be in a position to tell us a little more about NS and the possible conversion ratios on their fleet.
    4 May 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I guess I must be argumentative tonight, because I also have to take on the quibble with how a company can't grow off of retained earnings.

     

    Is that not the best way to grow? Plow back profits into expanding more "organic growth?" With the necessary PO's in-hand?

     

    If the numbers run right, what bank would not invest in that? Or better, the whale we all want.

     

    I realize that Axion has never had retained earnings, only retained losses. But someday "relatively" soon, they will. And those earnings I hope will be plowed back into further expansion, including bonuses for upper management, and the expansion of sales staff, shop workers, etc.

     

    I'm positive though, that another round of raising capital will occur next year. And you know what, I expect another one after that. The board, and us share owners, last July, approved up to 200,000,000 shares for total outstanding shares.

     

    Lots of approved shares yet to hit the market via private or public offerings.

     

    I'm hoping the next round of raising capital is more for expansion, than for keeping things running.

     

    I expect to twice again feel like I've been kicked in the choppers, but after that? Look out. Axion will zoom upward. Especially when they begin licensing.

     

    Especially when Quercus and the flippers are done selling. But I see it as that we still have two more rounds of flippers yet to deal with.
    4 May 2012, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Maya> "I guess I must be argumentative tonight, because I also have to take on the quibble with how a company can't grow off of retained earnings."

     

    Nothing to argue about. Of course part of the funding for growth comes from retained earnings - they are ALL plowed back in the business. The trouble with trying to grow a RAPIDLY growing business is you can't expand working capital fast enough with just retained earnings. Suddenly you need the money to pay a lot more people, buy a lot more raw material, finance (even for net 30) more receiveables, pay more payroll taxes, etc.

     

    If you limit growth to the rate that can be financed with retained earnings alone you can grow, just not that fast. Of course you can get a bank to fund part of that growth also with receivable and working capital revolving loans, etc. Besides, I have nothing I want to argue about. The only statement I want to make is Axion will need a capital raise in 2013 - nothing more.
    4 May 2012, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Rats, bang. I was hoping you would disagree, such that I could end your estrangement from the poker scene.

     

    My thinking is thus, and that's that Axion will take longer to go from a 44 cent stock, to a $3.00 stock, then it will take to go from a $3.00 stock to a $6.00 stock. I was willin' to bet a grand on that. ;-) With five to one odds!

     

    I guess my point is that all of us should take another look at expectations. I've shifted mine out another 18 to 24 months, or so, before the 1000% or 1500% gain occurs. I truly hope I'm wrong. But oooh, I will take that.

     

    But if Vani's prediction today holds that Norfolk is only going to retrofit 50 or 75 locomotives over the next five years, and with this last NSC order of $475,000 as some sort of basis to convert one switcher, then I am stuck with only $4.75M to $7.125M of revenue per year going forward the next five years. Of course, this is not including ancillary revenue, or, if the reported was accurate. I may also be wrong in what percentage of Axion batteries NSC buys for switchers versus OTRs.

     

    Admittedly, I have obviated all other revenue generating sectors, so many with great potential.

     

    Having read through so many earlier rah rah comments...well...I'm underimpressed.

     

    More than ever, I'm now counting on Axion's ability to gain traction with the grid. But, months ago, that's where I saw, we all saw, Axion's greatest chance to make us a lot of money.
    4 May 2012, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Until you've experienced the stark differences between raising money to keep the doors open and raising money to maintain a world class growth rate you can't understand that the former is painful but the latter is joyful.

     

    Selling losses and delays is hard and people only want to play on brutal terms. Selling 300% YoY growth and the need to expand capacity to meet demand is a financiers dream.

     

    The next round will be a positive thing for all concerned. Obsessing that it may be painful comes from a lack of experience with the process.
    4 May 2012, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    Jack, I agree with you completely. I have been invested since Mega-c days, and 10 years is getting a little tiresome. Time to show the cards, and push out the boat. We all believe that it does what it said it would do, now time for Vani to get some big orders, or we will never get noticed in the big leagues and forever be pinch hitting in the minors
    4 May 2012, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    OK Rambo,
    So far your total of 8 comments have suggested that you were part of the MegaC scam, you wish that AXPW would go up( don't we all), and you think something negative is occurring because the timing of the stock going up isn't within your time frame.

     

    If you wish to predict the stock movement, you can join the list of people that believes this microcap stock will act like an established Mega stock like GE.

     

    If you wish to contribute I would be happy to hear of your trial and tribulation as an Axion stockholder. All of us have a story and how Axion has been a part of our portfolios.
    But please don't confuse your wishes with the facts. Axion did a great job at the last CC telling us where the company was going. Many have invested more based on those statements. Your insinuation that Axion wasn't clear enough is simply not true. Your theory that TG can give us more is simply not realistic. He can tell us what NS says he can tell us.

     

    What I don't understand is why you have any negative thoughts after the last CC and the NS announcement?
    4 May 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    "What I don't understand is why you have any negative thoughts after the last CC and the NS announcement?"

     

    Because he's the same guy as the other 10+ I.D.s that write the same stuff. Have you seen his profile?: "Jack ass investor... specialising in losing stock portfolios."
    4 May 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    We should all be aware of another capital raise, it is part of good DD. IMO, it is old news and way too early to spend so much time on it. It is obvious that new capital is more for expansion than just operating capital to fund losses from day to day operations.

     

    The only new thing I am adding is :
    The capital could be raised before year end....at anytime, not '13
    The terms should be expected to be the same as the last. Maybe better, but probably not....even if the stock price goes up to .70 or .80 we still look at say .50 +/-.
    TG did not get the terms he wanted on the last raise, and in this economy & environment, political elections worldwide, I would not be surprised that he is working on it now. Or will be soon. I don't think he waits until the last minute. If it's not for plant expansion, then another small raise using the shares already approved is very possible.
    We all know this, and have for months, whatever it is is no surprise. News of large orders is what is going to drive the stock price. As has been stated, no matter the amount (and the more raised the better for us...as in $20-50 million would be great) it will be NEED for expansion and that will offset some of the pain,
    I am glad to see expectations stretching out for 12-18 months, I got bashed last fall for mentioning that timeframe. It is what I expected all along. The offsetting good news is two things:
    1. NS order is in hand now....no more guessing, also near term plans for how many loco's they may build.
    2. TG's statement of being "break-even in 2013)...that is ahead of schedule for my plan. Which is good.

     

    From this point on, you will always have "flippers" from whatever source. There is more shares available and some are going to get sold for whatever reason. TG is too conservative for my taste, but he has survived. I hope he raises $50 million tomorrow and that funds back him...then go to the big exchanges (NASD, or AMEX) immediately.
    None of this may happen, but as an investor you should be prepared. If you can predict the future, then you don't need to be on SA...there is bigger things to use that talent for.
    4 May 2012, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you may be learning more lessons from the past than the underlying business dynamics contained. I agree that management would probably prefer a new financing round toward the end of this year instead of pushing it into next year, but one can't discount the changes that we're likely to see this year or expect a replay of the dynamic that existed when the final terms were struck on the last transaction.

     

    Tom has already said he expects a 300% YoY growth this year and next. The people who hang around here and pay attention know that Q4-11 revenue was $2.8 million and that a reasonable expectation for Q1-12 is in the $4.4 million range. The rest of the market doesn't understand that and will be shocked to see 300% sequential growth from Q1-11 to Q1-12. That shock will add significant credibility to Tom's assertion that 300% YoY is already baked in the cake for 2012. A repeat performance in Q2-12 that ramps revenue to $6 million, another 300% ramp from the comparable quarter of last year, will make believers out of even staunch skeptics.

     

    Last week Axion sold one set of batteries to NS and said a second locomotive was in the works. Yesterday Vani Dantham told the ESA that NS wants 50 to 75 locomotives within five years. If the owner of 1/6 of the US locomotive fleet wants 50 to 75 units, that sizes the likely market at 300 to 450 units. Once again, that fact is known only to people who attended the ESA or read this concentrator carefully.

     

    The last financing round was being negotiated during the most brutal spate of selling in Axion's history. A single holder (Special Sits) pounded 3.2 million shares into the market in the last 45 days of the year. That crushed the price and scared the pants off the investors who were lining up to write checks. It resulted in a painfully low offering price. The big difference between the past and the future is that today THERE ARE NO HOLDERS WITH THAT MUCH WEIGHT. There's nobody out there with enough stock to crush the next rally in the stock price and unless you believe the Axionistas are going to be thrilled to sell out in the $.70 or $.80 range, there's no reason to believe the stock price will stop there.

     

    Sellers will be with us always. Flippers who have outsized stock positions that they're willing to sell in a narrow price range will not. For the last two years the Axionistas have been buying stock and stuffing it in their sock drawers. Until the Axionistas are ready to sell en masse, the issue is going to be a lack of supply, rather than too much supply. We've all had such a miserable time negotiating a long and painful trip through the Rockies that we don't yet realize that we hit the Great Plains a half hour ago. We're still worrying about another icebound pass. That worry is inappropriate.
    4 May 2012, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    JP ... you make valid points as usual....and this is the last time I will counter your enthusiasm.
    This is May 2012, and i do not doubt TG meeting his 300% yr/yr growth because the numbers are so low that it is probably in his pocket already.... There is only 7 months left in this year. The list below is somewhat going to offset some of the gains:

     

    1. NS order was less than most expected...and on top of that it is 90-120 days before we see the 999 work. PbC still has to prove itself and people see success in real day to day work. The 5 yr. conversion for NS was less than many thought...the other rails will come on board...AFTER the 999 proves it works. That is prob. 2013.
    2. The home pc unit won't be out until Sept...then it has to prove it's worth...utilities want to see how it "benefits" them before mass orders come in. That only leaves it 90 days to have an effect in 2012.
    2. Probably no BMW order in 2012. Most of their announcements come in the spring & summer when new models are introduced.
    3. Grid...there are still regulatory issues to solve on payment structure....Utilities move very very slowly. In fact they are resisting change.. I have no doubt that some PC's will be sold to help achieve the 300% growth ..but how many? You have only 7 months.
    4. Capital raise...that always hampers stock prices. We may see the .70-80, but that is far from the potential we want.
    5. Every significant rise is met with selling....and I personally expect the see saw effect with a slow grinding higher.
    6. TG stated that it is 2013 when we achieve break even....He is basically telling you that we grow nicely in 2012 but the good things begin in 2013 and beyond.
    7. Metroneanderthal...is right that oil rigs are Rosewater's baby. But are we gonna get a demo or an order for 100 of them in 7 months? It not being mentioned yesterday tells me it is not a big part of AXPW business this year. It had always been mentioned before by TG and on their list of markets.
    8. Quercus is still "an anchor or drag" even with their orderly selling until they are gone. Which will probably take the rest of the year or close.

     

    With all that out of the way, we still have a clearer path, and more potential than we had a year ago, and less obstacles such as Quercus and SS...
    It's just that this year is still the transition from development to commercial stage. A lot of proving "in the field" not the lab to be done before mass adoption. (re: NS 999, BMW police & taxi cars, home PC, Grid PC @ AXPW headquarters, etc.)
    It should be exciting a year from now without hardly any of these headwinds that we face in 2012.
    Just like I don't expect much the next 7 months, each month means that we are less than 12 months away from what we want. Maybe even only 7 months away. (although I expect 12).
    We could be surprised by a big announcement, and I love positive surprises.
    I would much rather be focusing on getting off the OTC and onto the Nasdaq than all this repetitious stuff....to get where we want to go, it ain't gonna happen on the OTC as a "penny stock".
    4 May 2012, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    LT;
    I share your perspective that we still have more waiting to do and anything that comes before end of calendar year will be a pleasant surprise.
    4 May 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm not suggesting enthusiasm, but we're all like battle hardened special forces vets coming back from Vietnam or Afghanistan where the things that kept us alive on the battlefield don't apply in our new environment. Whether we know it or not, things are different and we need to remember the past while avoiding the temptation to relive it.

     

    1. Nobody who'e ever paid attention to Axion's discussions of the NS relationship could have expected more than the NS 999 as a first step and a road locomotive as the second step. Hearing that Mr. Dantam told the ESA yesterday they want 50 to 75 in five years was music to my ears. NS is 1/6 of the national railroad fleet, but all four of the major railroads have the same problems and the same regulatory deadlines to contend with. They might want to dawdle, but like stop-start in automotive the rules won't let them.

     

    2. The home PowerCube is interesting, but it will almost certainly be too expensive for most human beings. The fact that Rosewater has convinced a utility to fund a University study to identify and quantify the values is great, but it's not going to be a short term revenue source.

     

    3. We have no way to assess what BMW will do or when it will act. The most sensible thing it could do is a small production run in the first year followed by successively larger runs in years two and three. Going from zero cars to a million cars in a single leap isn't in the cards. I'm not banking on a BMW design win this year, but I certainly won't dismiss it as a possibility.

     

    4. The PowerCube is directed to the needs of to power producers and commercial power users, not utilities. Power producers will buy storage that makes their output more valuable. Commercial users will buy storage that makes their service more reliable. Utilities will only buy what they can include in their rate base - nothing more and nothing less.

     

    5. The process of raising capital has no impact on the stock price until the closing date. For proof of that you don't need to look any further back than January when the price was climbing nicely until a February 1st closing stopped the run. The impact of completing a financing depends on the circumstances. Financing to pay for another year of losses or slow growth is usually a bad thing. Financing to build new plant and grow more rapidly is a good thing. Markets pay attention to those kinds of distinctions and positive financings have positive outcomes.

     

    6. Every time the stock price has been met with significant selling resistance, we've been able to identify the sellers with specificity. We are currently eating our way through a group of short term thinkers who snuck into the last offering. After that there won't be anybody with enough weight to fulfill your sustained selling pressure scenario. There will be normal market activity but until the Axionistas start taking stock out of their sock drawers the supply won't exist.

     

    7. Transition companies trade on the basis of expectations. Currently the market does not expect 300% YoY growth from Axion even though Tom has said he intends to achieve it in 2012 and 2013. If Axion books a couple more quarters of 300% YoY sequential growth from the 2011 numbers, market expectations will rise and the stock price will do the same.

     

    I've had 30 years of experience working with micro-cap companies and I've been down this road more times than I care to recall. It always feels like the change will take forever and stockholders are always surprised when the progress comes in leaps and bounds instead of a long slow grind. I've written Instablogs on two examples where clients were stuck in bulletin board hell until a step change took them up to a national exchange qualification overnight.

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

     

    I share your fears, but I've lived through the process enough times to know that change, when it comes, is never a long slow grind up.
    4 May 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I did not paint a disaster scenario nor do I have fear. My points were that it is slower developing than we would like.

     

    You listed the same reasons in your counter-response that I did.
    4 May 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1998) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for adding stability. I've also been through this before with other developmental stocks. The core group of believers always wants the big event to happen more quickly than it happens.

     

    The big event in this case will make a number of people here more financially secure than they are now, so the restlessness is understandable.

     

    In these disruptive situations, different companies end up with niches. Each battery type will turn out to be best for one or several niches, JP has described the strengths and weakness of each battery type.

     

    Let's enjoy what will come to us as gravity drops each battery type into the niches in which they work best.
    4 May 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Oil rigs:
    I was disappointed that Vani did not mention oil rigs as a market yesterday. Any thoughts?

     

    If that is so, then it removes a demo market that I expected this year.
    4 May 2012, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    Potentially to assuage your disappointment, it may be that as the subject of the presentation was supposedly "Axion PbC® PowerCube™ PJM Demonstration" maybe Axion did not feel the need to talk about that area, or potentially that is Rosewater's bailiwick. Just specuulation on my part.
    4 May 2012, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Great discussion here, I will throw in my two cents,
    I dont think the other rail companies will wait til the 999 goes live, they are talking now with Axion and one or two of them will be brave and place an order,,, probably this year. (this is a half full, half empty argument).
    As others have noted,, the ramp in revs will be noticed, imo, they are being noticed now, and are slightly responsible for the 10-15 new axionistas we have on this board,, When we show similar gains in Q-1 and Q2 AXPW will pop up on alot of search engines/ stock filters.
    All said, I am keeping my expectations in check, and am ready to slog it out.
    4 May 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    TOO MUCH FUN:

     

    The Congressman for the Tesla-Solyndra District can't remember which makes cars.

     

    http://bit.ly/IJJX2K
    4 May 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I relistened to the 4/2/2012 conf call Q&A section again late last night. Wanted to remind everyone of a few things that TG said:
    1) Axion expects sales of "Cube applications", "a hybrid locomotive application" and "things we haven't talked a lot about", all in "the next few months". It's been a month now, and TG was spot-on about the loco--it was singular, which is what we got, one. Power Cube applications hasn't happened yet, but it was plural, so expect at least two in that category. Same with the "other" category--it was plural.
    2) Axion expects it will have demonstration and some small sales of the residential power product in advance of the 9/2012 Indiana Home Show which Rosewater will be a part of. The demo and small sales will be "on our own", i.e., not thru Rosewater.

     

    In only a week and a half we'll get Q1 results and updates. Can hardly wait.
    4 May 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next concentrator (the humor is endless...)

     

    ----------------------...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 May 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Hello John,

     

    We'll soon have the answer to my question with the cc but when you say: "The people who hang around here and pay attention know that Q4-11 revenue was $2.8 million and that a reasonable expectation for Q1-12 is in the $4.4 million range." doesn't that mean that you are referring to sales that have already happened? Who did we sell $4.4 million to?

     

    Thank you for a bit of enlighting me!
    4 May 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The $4.4 million is my estimate of the revenue progression that will be required to take Axion from $8 million in 2011 revenue to $32 million in 2012 revenue.

     

    The revenue breakdown for Q4-11, as near as I can calculate it, was $2.56 million in flooded sales, $243,000 in PbC and other and $48,000 in service.

     

    My estimate for Q1-12 is $3.4 million in flooded sales, $750,000 in PbC and other and $250,000 in service. These figures and the allocations to the various revenue classes are only a guess and may be way off the mark in any number of respects, but I don't believe Tom would have forecast a 300% YoY growth for 2012 unless he was very confident he'd achieve it.
    4 May 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, they've never given guidance. Why start now unless it's "in the bag"
    4 May 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Let's not forget that the guidance given was for the full years 2012 and 2013, not quarterly. Expect some lumpiness in the quarter-by-quarter actuals, IMO.
    4 May 2012, 12:14 PM Reply