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  • Axion Power Concentrator 96: May 4, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries 233 comments
    May 4, 2012 10:03 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries

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    The 2011 Run and Now: From Jakurtz (updated May 4th)

    The blue line is what scottrade gives me as the 200-day weighted moving average and (if you enlarge the chart) we appear to be trading ON TOP of it. We have also been consistently trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands everyday except for two for almost six weeks. Trading in the upper-half of the BB for this long but still going sideways can be thought of as coiling a spring tighter and tighter everyday.

    The stock appears to be on its hands and knees begging to make a break to the upside and it would if it weren't for a bit of loose supply keeping it down in the .43-.45 range. The demand is obviously there it is just waiting for someone else to make the first move. This, plus the positive business developments lead me to believe it is only a matter of days before we break out of this range and begin a run that no dinosaur can stop. The last week of this chart is just getting stretched out compared to last years run, which makes me believe this run, percentage wise, might be bigger, longer and stronger (at least...that's what she said and I trust her).

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    The spread between the 10- and 200-day VWMA is currently $0.02324, or 5.13% of the 200-day VWMA. Back in January 2011, the breakout happened when the spread hit 7.35% of the 200-day VWMA

    (updated through closing May 4th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart on Concentrator Comments: (updated May 4th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Thanks to John Petersen for providing the charts.

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (233)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment from JP..
    ----------------------...
    TOO MUCH FUN:

     

    The Congressman for the Tesla-Solyndra District can't remember which makes cars.

     

    http://bit.ly/IJJX2K
    4 May 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Jp
    Why does this not surprise me!
    4 May 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And this one from mr I...
    ----------------------...
    I relistened to the 4/2/2012 conf call Q&A section again late last night. Wanted to remind everyone of a few things that TG said:
    1) Axion expects sales of "Cube applications", "a hybrid locomotive application" and "things we haven't talked a lot about", all in "the next few months". It's been a month now, and TG was spot-on about the loco--it was singular, which is what we got, one. Power Cube applications hasn't happened yet, but it was plural, so expect at least two in that category. Same with the "other" category--it was plural.
    2) Axion expects it will have demonstration and some small sales of the residential power product in advance of the 9/2012 Indiana Home Show which Rosewater will be a part of. The demo and small sales will be "on our own", i.e., not thru Rosewater.

     

    In only a week and a half we'll get Q1 results and updates. Can hardly wait.
    4 May 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I recall that TG answered the last question of the CC that the PC applications they were working with was in conjunction with Viridity.
    4 May 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    The last question and answer was about the Company's military activity. TG said Axion's concentration and focus there has been on things like the military's needs for replacing worn motor-generator sets to reduce hydro-carbon issues (reduce CO2 and NOx emmissions and save on diesel fuel) and the like, not Silent Watch efforts. Axion has responded to RFPs, with Viridity, for example, TG said.

     

    So those next PbC sales could well be to the military. Nothing I heard suggests that it's "the" PC applications; rather "a" one.
    4 May 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Mercedes/AMG going to start stop too ...

     

    http://nyti.ms/KfSZSP
    4 May 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Stefan > "http://nyti.ms/KfSZSP"

     

    Fascinating! "“We introduced the technology on AMG vehicles two years ago,” Mr. Vetter, sad. “Direct-injection engines allow us to really maximize the benefit. You can squirt fuel for just one piston and get the engine to start itself without always engaging the starter.”
    4 May 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Regarding the near-term timing of Power Cube sales, I'm not sure if "next few months" encompasses the pay-for-performance ruling(s) that Axion expects to occur "in late Q2 or early Q3", after which Axion expects that they "will get a whole new set of legs", or not.

     

    Still learning about the PC mkt--are PC sales to power generators(e.g., solar and wind generators) dependent on the pay-for-performance ruling(s), or is that for behind-the-meter/customer pricing determination only? If there's really no connection, then sales to producers wouldn't be dependent on the ruling(s) and thus any delays that might occur, either, I suppose. IOW, they can happen more easily at any time, and thus might be the sales TG expects to occur within those "next few months."

     

    Just following TG's precision-wording trail on a slow day. At least we should know more in 10-11 days, anyway.
    4 May 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I seem to remember arcactive being discussed, but not sure.

     

    http://bit.ly/IOPoyA
    4 May 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with Stuart McKenzie of ArcActive in October 2010 and think they have insurmountable patent problems because of Axion's IP estate. The technical concept is fascinating, but they're still at the advanced science fair project stage. They're not a credible threat to Axion in the foreseeable future.
    4 May 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, thanks for the reference. Reading the article prompted recollection of a quip by a successful NFL coach (George Allen) known in part for observing, "The future is now."

     

    If Arcactive is looking at having a marketable battery in 2015 they might want to persuade EC and US officialdom to close the barn doors on mileage/emissions improvements until some time later.
    4 May 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    I stepped out yesterday. Only a little over 150 message to catch up on. Amazing.
    4 May 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    As of 11:39:10:
    Min. Pr: 0.4300
    Max Pr: 0.4400
    Vol 56300
    Av. Tr. Sz 4330.77
    VWAP 0.4370
    buy:sell rotating towrds us 1.13:1

     

    Well, (TSLA) worked out nicely. I targeted $31.50 underlying low today and my sell to close went off at 11:22 with the low for the day (so far) at $31.47.

     

    Entered position 4/30 @ $1.70, sold 5/4 @ $2.45. W/friction, +40.2% gain.

     

    NB: You have to play games with the #*^*# market maker to get this. Trying to sell, I entered orders at mid-points at prices just off my target (give up a bit of profit for lowered upside risk in this case) earlier and the market maker wouldn't move the bid.

     

    Canceled order and right away the bid moves closer to ask.

     

    On the third cycle of doing this, got execution right away.

     

    John's recent article likely helped me get where I wanted to be more quickly! Maybe unintended, but thanks regardless!

     

    HardToLove
    4 May 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1920) | Send Message
     
    I Like and respect JP a lot, but I am not sure his tiny voice can make a dent in the conglomerate mountain of positive PR that lifts Tesla to defy the laws of gravity.

     

    However, I was watching Tesla today and a huge smile went across my face thinking of your play....well done indeed!
    4 May 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Great! I was looking for a way to gratify my ego by claiming all credit!

     

    You help me out towards guilt-free braggadocio! :-))

     

    Thank you sir!

     

    HardToLove
    4 May 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Is that 3 for 3? or 4 for 4? do you have a fund I can invest in? <smile>

     

    EDIT: should have asked you what you are going to name your fund...
    4 May 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    3 for 3 Tim.

     

    If it goes like the rest of my learning curve, and seems to be so far, as I "learn" how a stock behaves, I do better.

     

    My big failing still is entering too early though.

     

    If I had read the charts better, I could've paid ... ~$1.15 for those options instead of $1.70. $0.55 would be about 2/3rds more profit.

     

    I've had to accept that I'm not always that great at catching the bottoms, although today I missed it on TSLA by only $0.07 - so I can't gripe (uh, that means I'm just not trying hard enough! ;-)

     

    I did catch the bottom on SPX today though and sold my (SPXU), a 3X inverse ETF over the S&P 500, for a nice tidy gain. But I've been trying to get that one right for months and am still down a few hundred on that particular learning curve. Another case of too early, several times.

     

    As to a fund, my left hip pocket seems to be a lot emptier than I would like! :-)))

     

    John's recent article posits that when (http://bit.ly/cANO8m) reports next week, the market reaction might be quite severe. I might position for that. Have to think 'bout it a lot.

     

    My theory is that the more attempts I make the more likely I am to catch a miss. This argues for very good risk management if I don't want one bad move to wipe out the gains. I'm thinking of doing some kind of options spread so that I win as long as it goes somewhere - up or down doesn't matter. You limit your upside but risk is mitigated as well.

     

    Anyway ...

     

    I exited today for two reasons: 1) it hit my expected target areas and 2) the near and medium term chart action shows TSLA tends to go down only two consecutive days the majority of the time.

     

    Today was day 2.

     

    If I can get my entry points better (don't be so early), I might improve yet to where I can focus on I'm doing well rather than I missed a big part of the potential gain again.

     

    Ever learning, ever learning.

     

    HardToLove
    4 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    A bit OT, though perhaps a slight nexus:

     

    http://gizmo.do/JxDxhT

     

    Notice how they mention this thing will be on a semi-trailer with its own generator? Going to be a major diesel gulper if the genset has to stay spinning continuously. Perfect application for a robust backup battery, one that can power the sensor suite for certain periods and only require the genset to fire up intermittently to recharge. And keep in mind that in theatre these things will be operated in various conditions of readiness-- such as standby, sensors active, command mode, full-auto, etc etc, each requiring a different power profile for that state. A big durable battery could make the thing a lot more efficient and easier to live with as far as maintenance, downtime, fuel support etc.. as well as make it more reliable in the clutch and enable more uptime. Maybe a stretch to say this is wonderfully perfect for PbC, sure, but just one more example of where the military may have much use for a big cheap, robust, durable, scalable battery system...
    4 May 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Missed the new Concentrator, so double posted: From the Electricity Storage Association meeting:

     

    The was an interesting presentation by East Penn and their lead carbon Ultrabattery. Unlike all the fancy chemistry (lithium, vanadium, flow, zinc, etc.), they are solidly lead-based, and forecast huge business. It is unclear (to me) how technically competitive their product is to PbC. Like the enthusiasm among Axionistas, there are highly enthusiastic supporters of the Ultrabattery. East Penn is a private company with 7,000 employees.

     

    Current installed utility batteries, all chemistries, is c. 151 mW, and growing slowly. Non-utility batteries, such as UPS and telecom, to be installed this year 5.8 GW.

     

    Here is their slide deck: http://bit.ly/L8CYRy . I have not studied the deck yet, so draw your own conclusions.
    4 May 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    It seems that the ultra battery and the PbC should be tested on an equal basis. I believe that a government grant got the Ultra battery tested early. Axion got their grant with Exide.
    In any case looking at the charts it appears that the PbC is close or better in dynamic charge acceptance. I don't know pricing or longevity but I have to believe that anyone testing one will be looking at the other when it comes time to purchase a large UPS order.
    4 May 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rick, for the reference. Interesting market size estimates.

     

    On technical competitiveness concerns, I note that an interview of NSC's research chief (Thelen?) referenced to the APCs last year included a quote noting their evaluation of many, many battery chemistries and the PbC was the only one that worked. I think it extraordinarily unlikely that NSC overlooked Ultrabattery in evaluations.

     

    Is it possible NSC's perceived superiority of the PbC has as much or more to do with (hope I am saying this correctly) charge equalization across batteries in a series as with service life?
    5 May 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Thanks for your generosity. Wonderful to have some feet on the ground.

     

    Ultra is probably the closest entity to PbC, and so the efforts of East Penn can be highly informative. Technically, the battery aficionados on these blogs infer that PbC has the edge, but surely East Penn must be considered to have a manufacturing (cost/volume) and marketing advantage presently.

     

    If Ultra is a success, then that would appear to rule East Penn out of the running for manufacture of PbC batteries on their manufacturing lines with Axion supplying electrodes, thereby potentially cannibalizing their own Ultra sales by enabling a direct competitor.

     

    Of interest, it is suspected/known that East Penn are Axion's specialist AGM client.
    4 May 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Anthlj: I tend to view the potential in an opposite light.

     

    EP makes a fine battery that has some similar performace traits and maybe a cost advantage. But from what I could gather, they only project their results out to two years, suggesting that either they haven't been able to simulate further out or they know that battery performance deteriorates and/or replacement is needed after that time.

     

    This *seems* supportable by the other documents we've seen about carbon-paste added batteries that do better than standard LA, but not as well (apparently) as the PbC in all regards other than energy density (did I state that correctly?), which should not be a major concern in PSOC operation I guess.

     

    When the longer demonstrated (simulated) lifetime of the PbC is considered there's a likely lower TCO as the expenses of downtime, personnel, ... are factored in for more frequent replacement of non-PbC battery (strings). I'm sure there's some applications where this might not be an issue, but for more demanding ones the PbC might be the winner.

     

    Since EP and Axion are both "neighbors", physically, and "friends" in their relationship, it seems there might be a plan (possibility?) for Axion to supply electrodes to EP and EP can offer a higher-lifetime (and maybe even higher-performance?) battery, for a price premium, that meets more demanding requirements.

     

    ISTM that both business models are satisfied: EP covers the range of performance and longevity requirements while Axion supplies electrodes to an established manufacturer and maybe a BMS and engineering support as well.

     

    What could be better? Cooperation, not competition could win the day.

     

    Speculating, speculating.

     

    HardToLove
    4 May 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    I think EastPenn has the Ultrabattery, so that's what they're going to go with; It's what they've got and so they're going to gamely make the best of it. I think they'd rather have the PbC as their horse. I think they'd like to buy Axion and the PbC outright, lock, stock, barrel, and management, but they don't want to pay/can't pay the proper price, which to get the important people interested, is going to have to be in the neighborhood of a billion dollars. I suspect the conversation has occurred in some form at some point already, even if it's been only over drinks. But it's at something of an impasse for the time being, even if a "friendly" competitive one. So for now, perhaps it's cooperate where interests align, until those might diverge, and continue along until there is more clarity as to which battery is the winner.. If EP can do well enough with the Ultrabattery, then maybe that satisfies them, whereas if PbC begins to emerge more and more as the strongest horse and market winner, then EP revisits its options, and perhaps re-consults its bankers. Should it decide to act, it will only have a narrow window to do so optimally, where the risks of such an acquisition become minimized, but before the price gets too high. Everyone hedges, showing some cards, and keeping others very close, eyeing the pot, eyeing their own stack, and eyeing their neighbor's as well, calculating, and recalculating the various values, options, and odds, and tracking the progress of developments. Each pursues their own agenda, as well as any joint agenda... and for now, until something big changes, or greatly clarifies, the game goes on...
    4 May 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    86, certainly any patent infringements would become a moot point if EP were to want the whole lead-carbon gallery and purchase AXPW. For this reason, I have always suspected them as the most likely candidate for an acquisition (should there ever be one). Also, the PbC should, once they get production rolling and streamlined, be cheaper to produce since it's less complicated to make...
    4 May 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Lets remember a little history with our East Penn neighbor.

     

    At approximately the same time that East Penn negotiated an exclusive contract for the production of the ultra battery in the U.S. they also signed a contract to make, test and sell the PbC.along with Exide. East Penn hedged their bets. Maybe they saw two viable but different products. Maybe they saw a patent fight ahead. Whatever the thought they were right there when Exide tried to corner the Axion market.

     

    Now skip ahead a year and see how Exide tried to own Axion cheap by not giving them the US grant money they had been promised. The Axion stock cratered from above $2 back to the $1 range. Axion needed money. Times were tough. All of a sudden a flooded lead acid battery contract falls from the sky into Axion's lap.
    I read that those LAB were placed inside East Penn battery cases. Coincidence? I doubt it.

     

    Now I might not be the smartest kid on the block but I know a friend when I see it. I would bet money that East Penn and Axion have a long and fruitful business relationship into the future. East Penn can make both types of batteries or one if they choose. But I doubt that the privately owned East Penn wants to buy Axion. I think they simply want to make as many PbCs as they are allowed to make.

     

    I'm OK with that. Just so East Penn gets the US market over Exide. That makes it doublydelicious.
    4 May 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Another interesting and valuable take, Futurist, though I still have to think that if the price were but low enough, that East Penn would love (after a comprehensive cost/benefit determination says it's a good thing) to have full control of the PbC itself if it could. I mean, who wouldn't?
    4 May 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    I look at the relationship between EP and Axion is akin to a big brother, little brother, where the big brother helps the little brother along, all while knowing that when the precocious little brother grows up, the big brother will benefit, too.

     

    I don't think there is a chance in hell that EP will ever buy Axion; they are siblings, brothers, who both stand to gain and win together.

     

    Right now, Axion is getting spill over orders from EP. By 2014, I expect that to reverse.
    4 May 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Futurist

     

    Curious...we're all over the place with conjecture...much constructive critical thought.
    TG is very confident about something...EP sounds intriguing!
    5 May 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    HTL...you hit the nail on the head with the statement about TCO (total cost of ownership).
    That and the longer durability of PbC vs Carbon paste is where AXPW will win their mkt. share. Carbon paste & the ultra battery both are stiff competition re: cost and in less taxing uses.

     

    NS used the PbC because it is the ONLY battery to withstand the huge charge coming in from regen. braking. We already know that auto's will go cheap way before quality when there is a 50% cost savings. Ex.- they used AGM in the first start/stop knowing it would only last a few months..nothing close to years.

     

    The point of all this: there is a lot of competition in the battery business and it's getting tougher as the big boyz like GE go after utilities and grid storage....AXPW needs to improve costs to be a bit more competitive, I hope gen-3 lines help this.

     

    Lastly, as to AXPW being bought out: East Penn has been a wonderful partner for AXPW....I like the "big brother" scenario....They might do a merger of equals in a total stock deal, but that is the only way East Penn could afford it. Probably EAst Penn to go public simultaneously with AXPW shareholders receiving shares of the new company.
    Otherwise, GE is the only one I see that could fork out the big bucks (or roll it into AONE to save their investment there). IF, their Na+ battery does not work in locomotives they could make a new electric locomotive with PbC. But only after the NS999 proves itself. I think that many companies would buy AXPW, but nothing like where JP wants the price..considering the avg. battery company like AXPW has about a $150 million mkt. cap. (that was in a previous post ) I still value AXPW today at about $300 million. There is no doubt in my mind that the grid storage & it's peripherals such as load leveling, etc is the key to our mkt. cap. PbC needs to "prove" itself in the field, then we see gains. I am confident that it will, because there are too many "systems" being developed around the PowerCube technology. When you have to replace 1000 batteries plus such as in the 999 the TCO of having to bring a loco back to the shop and refit it cost's way more than the cost of batteries. Same with the grid.
    We have to get revenues up...way up to obtain the mkt. cap we want to see & whoever said yesterday that we might ultimately wind up with 200 million shares might not be too far off unless something huge and profitable comes along. Personally, a buyout suits me because this is just an investment to me. Either way Axionista's win IF the PbC proves itself in the field at the prices we have bought in at.
    5 May 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    I hope East Penn and Axion continue to have a symbiotic relationship. My solar array stores power on East Penn gel batteries, which have been very satisfactory. East Penn has some the clearest technical information freely available on their web site of all the battery companies. Example http://bit.ly/IHFXQR (hmm, I looking at you, Axion, with much more limited information available.)

     

    Perhaps the best reason they may continue is because East Penn is private; they do not have to make silly quarterly numbers. I have always worked in private, and love the freedom to do the right thing as opposed to the superficially pretty but real-world financially foolish.
    8 May 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    It's also important to remember that East Penn is making a retail product for direct sale to end users of lead-acid batteries. That means they have to provide the information to the general public because the general public is their customer.

     

    For all its virtues, the PbC is not suitable for use as a drop in replacement in systems that have been designed for flooded or AGM batteries. It needs to be sold as part of a new system that's been designed to take advantage of its unique performance characteristics. Under those circumstances there's no identifiable benefit from publishing too much information.

     

    In all the years I've worked with Axion, the last thing the guys ever did was let the market tail wag the business dog. If anything they said too little and didn't bother worrying about the optics of anything.

     

    That dynamic is starting to change a little, but the business dog is still the main event and the market is still the tail.
    8 May 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    What's good for the Ultrabattery is good for the PbC and vise versa. Consider CP-AGM, Ultrabattery and PbC as good, better and best when it comes to adding capacitance to lead-carbon batteries. EP and AXPW recognize this dynamic and as far as I can tell are working together for the success of both...
    4 May 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to know the stable of relationships EP has established with the Ultra and how it compares to that of Axion in terms of volume, cachet and maturity. With EP privately held company I suppose these matters are beyond the capabilities of our intelligence network. Any way of divining how much money EP have made in recent years?

     

    I also wonder why it is that the concentrators collectively view EP as such a benign force in the universe. There may be niches (HTL) in which Ultra and PbC don't compete, but by and large I would have predicted they'd be going head-to-head.
    4 May 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    anthlj, I very much share your curiosities. One thing to remember though is that there are other big players (Exide, JCI, automakers etc etc) factoring into the overall dynamic, and I think we'd almost need some tensor analysis to figure out all the vectors of all the possible relationships. Exide kind of burned Axion. Axion proved themselves savvy and scrappy in the whole wrastle, though they ended up out in the cold WRT the grant money. If Exide had succeeded in its coup, and absorbed Axion, they might have emerged as a much scarier competitor for everybody... EP might want to keep Axion safely away from the arms of other suitors/predators... Also there's always got to be a bit of "keep your friends close, your frenemies closer, and your enemies always guessing." in any of this... So any EP-Axion cooperation that may now be occurring probably cuts many ways... each puts something into it, each gets something out of it, and each gains some measure of insight into what the other is doing.. This is all of course rank musing and conjecture and I don't mean to cast any party in a negative light. But business is business, and in such a highly complex competitive environment, it can't be beanbag.
    4 May 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article from 2009 concerning future grid energy storage winners.

     

    In typing the post above about East Penn I ran across this article written in 2009:
    http://bit.ly/Kx1Vkz

     

    Several things are interesting about this report.
    1) Now that it is 3 years old it looks brilliant.
    2) It shows that the PbC will not have much of a market in Smart Grid application until at least 2012 but more likely 2013.
    3) It predicts the PbC as a great Micro grid tool.
    4) It really shows the risk of battery companies since it is touting Firefly, & C&D as firms to watch.

     

    If I had read this in 2009 I might have been a little slower to purchase AXPW. But probably not. I have loved the technology since I first read about it.
    4 May 2012, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Way to go! There can't be but a handful of self-taught independent investors around that know how to tease down a market maker such that they can excercise a put option.

     

    Well done. Truly impressive.
    4 May 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Thank you sir. I guess I'll have to go to the haberdashery for a larger tin-foil hat if this keeps up. Too busy to construct my own any more.

     

    Not budgeted for that in this year's ... "capex"! :-))

     

    <ducks flying shoes resulting from that pun>

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Groan.
    5 May 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Maya: just for clarity, as "exercise" has specific meaning in options and there's likely some less familiar here, I closed my long put position by selling the position I was long - "sell to close".

     

    Pardon the long post, but for other folks ...

     

    Exercising is never a problem - you call your broker or whatever and just say "do it". As the holder of the option (being long), all the choices belong to you.

     

    The difficulty comes when you want to close a position. In this case, the MM was making a wide spread to entice those wanting to go long to pay a very high premium above theoretical value. On the other side (bid), he was holding the bid low so that folks that wanted to go short (or exit a long position) got much less than theoretical value indicated should be paid.

     

    What most don't realize is that if you're long a put contract which is not all *that* liquid, you may have the MM by the short hairs. This is because at the time you bought the put the market-maker should have immediately shorted the underlying into the market. His most profitable and least risky exit from that position is for the option to be closed.

     

    Knowing that in a less liquid option it's highly likely that the ask and bid are, most of the time, from the market maker, I was able to decide that showing him a "weak" interest in selling, by closing the offer after a few minutes, waiting and doing again as necessary, would make him reconsider his intransigence on the price.

     

    In many ways, JPs supply and demand considerations in operation at the roadside fruit stand.

     

    Last observation: in other cases of trying to buy (to either go long or close a short position) the market maker *may* try to work you by walking the bid up - injecting bids at or just above yours instantaneously when your bid is entered.

     

    This observed while playing my covered short calls on NVAX over the years. Need to have either "Time and Sales" or "Level 2" open on the options to see just how rife the manipulation *can* be. BTW, that's the same stock that had thousands of "phantom" call contracts appear in mid-2010, with no matching buy or sell transactions, that skewed the put/call ratio (a low ratio is considered bullish). This was accompanied by a rise in share price of about 25% through the end of the year, from around $2.

     

    On December 31 of that year, all those call contracts disappeared, again with no matching buy or sell transactions taking place.

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The easiest way to think about carbon in batteries is a good, better, best analysis. Carbon additives are good. The Ultrabattery is better. The PbC is best.

     

    The $64,000 question is which battery will be best suited to the needs of emerging markets in automotive, grid, rail etc.

     

    East Penn has worked closely with Axion since 2004 and they've been invaluable over the years. It's always been clear that when Axion starts making electrodes for sale to other battery makers East Penn will be on the approved customer list. That fact makes them the only battery manufacturer in the world that can make all three levels of lead-carbon batteries. They can make carbon additive batteries and the Ultrabattery without a partner. They can buy electrode assemblies from Axion and make PbC batteries for their customers who need the highest level of performance.

     

    From where I'm sitting East Penn has done a masterful job of building a scenario where they win no matter what happens. The thing that's important to understand about East Penn is they're tied to their current location where they've got a 490 acre campus with over 2 million feet under roof. I've seen nothing that indicates a desire to "go global" with the complexities that entails or to expand into the kind of R&D work Axion's been doing for a decade and will likely be doing for another decade as they find ways to improve performance and profitability.

     

    Thinking of Axion and East Penn as competitors leads to the wrong conclusion. What you're more likely to see is an East Penn salesman calling home to say "That customer I pitched on the Ultrabattery really needs the PbC so get on the phone and buy another 100,000 electrode assemblies from Axion so we can fill the order."
    5 May 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good to me.

     

    From flooded to PbC:

     

    The Uh-ohbattery

     

    The Upscalebattery

     

    The Ultrabattery

     

    The Ultimatebattery
    5 May 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    I like that take on things too...
    5 May 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    When you remember that I drafted the original agreements between Axion and East Penn and run into East Penn's CEO on a fairly regular basis at industry events ...
    5 May 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    i have an AWESOME wife :)
    5 May 2012, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Have you ever considered the possibility that she has an awesome husband?
    5 May 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, I must be doing something right since she's stuck with me for 31 years. She is a sneaky girl as it was her who posted that comment! She high-jacked my FB account once and wrote all kinds of untruths (stuff I would never admit in public) before I caught her.

     

    Looks like I need to trim my SA time a bit...

     

    EDIT: Okay, she is pretty AWESOME!
    5 May 2012, 04:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Tim, Tim, Tim, ... "untruths (stuff I would never admit in public) "

     

    You just gave some of us a lot of ammo with the conflict between "untruths" and "admit in public". :-))

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Oops!
    5 May 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Re- drilling rig down time.

     

    FWIW, just got a bit of feedback on relocation time on rigs used these days for vertical and horizontal drilling. Vertical wells the source had worked on in recent years were targeting deep, onshore reservoirs and the same rigs were used for vertical and horizontal wells. Said it took two weeks to relocate a rig from the North part of the country to the South. In his parlance the North to South transfer referred to Dakotas to Texas.
    5 May 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Did he give any indication of how long they spent drilling a hole? I know these big horizontal drills take longer than the few weeks we spent drilling straight down, but I don't have a feel for how much longer.
    5 May 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Did not pose that question to him, JP, and he did not volunteer anything in that regard. I do know, however, that with advent of horizontal well completions a fairly common practice is to set up a "pad" and drill multiple wells from the same location.

     

    Just read a minerals lease agreement that stipulates operators may use up to five acres of surface area while drilling and retain two acres for production from completed well(s). Access to drilling locations is assured to operator; roads constructed for access must be all-weather quality. Two acres to be fenced, area used during drilling but not production to be restored to pre-drilling condition.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7qz... (PR on new product from rig producer) provides an industry source peek at rig re-location time(s).
    <
    -- SELRig can be purchased and later modified at anytime to provide skidding and/or walking capability -- alleviating an operator of unforeseen operational and/or maintenance costs.
    -- A 100% American made product.
    -- Designed to meet and exceed the most stringent safety standards in the world.
    -- Completely crane-less.
    -- Cost-effective to operate.
    -- Ships in under 30 loads reducing trucking costs.
    -- Rigs up in two days (compared to four/seven days with other rigs).
    -- Can manage Multi-Pad Drilling (can walk from well to well without the use of an on-site crane or rigging down).
    -- Walks at a rate of one foot per minute compared to a 2 to 3 day rig move.
    -- Unprecedented adaptability, unmatched quality and reliability.
    <
    5 May 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    John and D-inv,

     

    This article I read last year may provide some perspective on length of time spent drilling a hole. The length of time for drilling the horizontal wells are clearly dependent on the type of rig used, the meters drilled, specialty fluids etc. -- which are making the horizontal wells increasingly productive. This SA author notes that:

     

    [Horizontal wells] may cost 2-3x as much as a vertical well, but producers often get 4-7x as much oil or gas out of those wells ... The Daily Oil Bulletin, a trade magazine in Canada, reported that the average metres drilled per rig jumped to 8,336 metres in the first quarter, up from 7,240 metres per rig in the same three months last year, as wells go deeper and the horizontal legs get longer ... The Petroleum Services Alliance of Canada says the average number of days it takes to drill a well has climbed to 11.5 in 2011, from 5.7 in 2008. Wells are, on average, almost 600 metres deeper than they were in 2008. Some of the deeper wells in Canada are taking 25 days or more to drill."
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    mj
    5 May 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I only ask because it's been 20 years since I stood on a drilling floor and I know the technology has advanced a lot since then.
    5 May 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    JP > "...it's been 20 years since I stood on a drilling floor ...."

     

    :-) 50 Years here, John, and as you note the technology has changed a bit.
    5 May 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting and useful info, Mercy. Thanks. I might add that completion costs (cementing, fracking, etc.) comprise a substantial share of cost for a producing horizontal well. The same source mentioned two week relocation time from North to South of U.S. advised some time back that fracking (in Haynesville Shale) typically cost about $0.4 - 0.5 million "per zone". 6 - 8 "zones" per well were common in the area at the time.
    5 May 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    So where does the battery fit into all this oil rig talk about relocation time?

     

    D
    5 May 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Goodness! Given the adage, "Time flies when your having fun", me thinks I had not realized just how much fun I've been having until reading that post.
    5 May 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    D.Mac
    All this talk means nothing until the first oil well buys our battery.
    After that it is just information where we try and guess the savings the PbC will save the oil rig.

     

    But once they buy we will assume the savings anyway. Oh hell, Its simply another way paint watches Axion dry.
    5 May 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    > D.Mc. -- Relocation time is conspicuous time rigs are not running and not burning diesel in an idling engine. Estimated cost avoided by displacement of idling fuel burn in one diesel engine gives one a means of estimating approximate payback period on a PowerCube.
    5 May 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, D-inv. Much appreciated.

     

    D
    5 May 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    And now: AUDI A3 WITH STOP-START

     

    http://bit.ly/JMmqxb

     

    ...The start-stop system utilizes a new glass mat battery and reduces fuel consumption by up to 0.3 liters (0.11 US gallons) per 100 km (62 miles).
    6 May 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    Auto is all about cost now. They will easily beat the new mileage requirements with smaller fuel efficient engines with turbo-chargers and Start Stop as we can see will be standard in a couple of years on all models.
    I am so surprised that auto's keep using AGM batteries knowing they won't work but a few months - a year or so. If they get past the warranty period they just don't care.
    6 May 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Currently AGM batteries are the best available technology for stop-start. The automakers are using them because they can't find a better battery that they can buy in relevant volumes.

     

    We all believe the PbC will prove to be a better stop-start battery than AGM. BMW obviously agrees or they wouldn't have spent three years and heaven knows how much money putting the PbC through the entire industry standard series of performance and abuse tolerance tests.

     

    I'm waiting with bated breath for the day BMW finishes its testing and says "the PbC is the best battery for stop-start" by designing it into a production vehicle. Even if that happens, however, the PbC won't be the best available technology until Axion has the operational capacity to produce electrode assemblies for millions of batteries per year.
    6 May 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    In my opinion if NS placed its first purchase order for PbC batteries, had to have happened:
    1-.The PbC Technology that successfully pass laboratory tests that were submitted by: AXPW, NS and Penn University.
    2-.Came out victorious over all other technologies (AGM, Lithium Ion, etc.).
    3-.The cost level is satisfactory for seeking savings in fuel.

     

    -.I find it very difficult if AXION (PbC) step all the NS laboratory tests and will not pass the BMW.
    -.Think: The BMW is not interested in saying anything about it, to gain advantage over other car manufacturers. He who hits first hits twice.
    6 May 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I think progressing to the next steps with Norfolk Southern is very positive because it shows that lengthy testing is required by first tier companies, even when they plan to be an end user of the battery.

     

    The difference between NS and BMW is that BMW is considering putting the PbC into a vehicle that it will sell to normal people and warrant for three to five years. Unlike NS, BMW won't be able to train its customers in the proper use of its vehicles or prevent its customers from doing stupid things to their cars. That means they have to test longer and harder to make sure the PbC is as idiot proof as AGM.

     

    As near as I can tell NS just caught up with BMW which has presumably been testing the PbC in cars for six to nine months now. The NS contract is big enough that it had to be disclosed, but I think BMW is farther down the path when it comes to testing.
    6 May 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Very good observation.
    Have a nice day Mr John.
    6 May 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    I share the following article:
    US, Japan, and China Lead the $113.5 Billion Grid Storage Market in 2017.
    http://bit.ly/JHjHke

     

    ..."Utilities need to manage an increasingly variable load of intermittent renewable energy sources and commercial customers require more reliable electricity supplies to mitigate outages that cost the United States alone between $80 billion and $188 billion annually," said Brian Warshay, Lux Research Associate and lead author of the report titled, “Grid Storage under the Microscope: Using Local Knowledge to Forecast Global Demand.” Conclusions gleaned from the report include:

     

    · Renewable energy shifting shows greatest potential. The largest application for grid storage will be renewable energy shifting, snatching up to $61 billion, or 54% of the demand, in 2017.
    · The Americas are poised to double its market share. Though Asia-Pacific and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) hold 88% of the market in 2012, the Americas’ share will more than double from 12% to 25% by 2017, bringing the three global markets closer to parity.
    · Technology diversification is underway. Over the last three years the grid storage market has shifted from one dominated by molten salt batteries to one more diversified, including Li-ion batteries, flywheels, and advanced lead batteries.
    6 May 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Good find Carlos!

     

    Thanks for the link.

     

    I hope your weekend has been enjoyable!

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    carlos-
    Thank you for the site. So much information!!
    6 May 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    With 4 concentrators to go until #100 and 9 days to go until the 15th I have my doubts that my guess will win the betting pool.

     

    I have a test drive set up tomorrow for the first start/stop car delivered to our local Kia dealership. I will file a full report on the results.
    6 May 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1831) | Send Message
     
    Kia is a subsidiary of Hyundai, which (of course) is South Korean. I'm amazed at how much of a powerhouse S. Korea has become in the last decade and a half. I'm sure Vani is privy to this obvious fact and (hopefully) is discussing the PbC battery with the Koreans...
    6 May 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to it Futurist. Is the car you will test drive the Rio? and make sure you make note of the battery make model and quantity <smile>...
    7 May 2012, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Article from February, 2012 that mentions AXION, explains start/stop, the current problems, and the AGM solution.

     

    Although the article missed the point of the BMW white paper it did do an excellent job of explaining the AGM and the S/S solution.
    Interesting read.:
    http://bit.ly/ywszAU
    6 May 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    That's the best article explaining AGM that I have read in simple words.
    It was good that Axion was mentioned.

     

    I think the next phase of production is important, as battery cost is going to be a concern unless mass production can reduce costs. We need to start landing some of these small production vehicle orders soon.
    6 May 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    "The AGM design has low internal resistance, and in the time it has been in European service is on track to match the 4- to 5-year service life of a conventional lead-acid while meeting the added challenge of stop-start, said Craig Rigby, Vice President of Global Product Engineering for JCI’s Power Solutions. “There are no unusual warranty issues, which shows it is robust, and no reports of diminished function,” he told AEI."

     

    Not sure this squares with our common understanding ....
    6 May 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: That's just marketing/sales happy talk. JCI and others are counting on the AGM market for their projections of increased revenue over the next 3-5 years. Until the PbC is accepted by a broad range of auto makers, and available at scale, they will probably meet their projections for sales. After that.........

     

    The very fact that JCI mentioned, and denied, "unusual warranty problems" and "diminished function" is telling. Why talk about a "non-problem"? Because it's a PROBLEM!

     

    Many potential customers are obviously very worried about the application of AGM in longer length warranties when performance of the S-S system becomes part of air quality yearly testing.
    7 May 2012, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    It clearly does not square, Stefan. But then, the statement can not be taken in isolation from other factors bearing on service life. With the right S/S system implementation the JCI statement is undoubtedly true. As the article states, "Idle stop-start strategy is based on what the battery can tolerate, how far it can be discharged, and, of course, the need to maintain a normal service life."

     

    Consider "A related factor, of course, is the engine-off electrical load, which with a 12-V system does not include electric air-conditioning, and the microhybrid is unlikely to add it (thermal cold storage in the evaporator is a more likely approach for A/C). " How many cars are likely to be sold in the U.S. without A/C?

     

    And there is, "The second factor is time needed to recharge so that the typical idle stop-start is disabled if the car is crawling in heavy stop-and-go traffic and stopping repeatedly. In addition, idle stop-start can only be enabled if the ambient temperature conditions permit. At very low ambient, when the battery cannot deliver the same amount of energy as at moderate ambient, and when cranking loads may be higher, the idle stop-start will be limited—if permitted at all. BMW says that maintaining an adequate SOC is an issue when ambient temperature drops below 0°C (32°F). High ambient temperatures (29-32°C/84-90°F), when A/C operation must be maintained, also result in cancellation of idle stop-start. " In other words, the AGM batteries exhibit normal service lifes without unusual warranty issues when the S/S systems are shut off a good part of the time -- cold Winter months, hot Summer months, heavy stop-and-go traffic, etc.
    7 May 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The statement actually does square with reality because all stop-start systems are smart enough to disable themselves when the battery isn't ready for another engine off event. That means nobody ever has an outright battery failure. Instead, the interval between engine off events just keeps getting longer and longer until users like my buddy Graham observe "I can't remember the last time the engine turned off at a light, but it's not worth the trouble of taking it in for repairs."
    7 May 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    The reason there are no warranty problems, if we can believe the BMW owners site posted some time back, is because the dealers just say battery undercharged due to your profile, charge it up and send them on their way.

     

    Like many years ago here - warranty claims were difficult to get satisfied.

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, you suggest that thermal cold storage would be a problem in the USA. However, JCI is not banning a/c in the car. Storing energy as ice (or other thermal mass) is much cheaper per kilo than storing energy in a battery. The "off" mode is start/stop is only for a few minutes.

     

    I do not see any fundamental reason for five minutes why the a/c fan blowing over a few pounds of ice woudn't keep the occupants as cool as having an electrically driven compressor.

     

    Axionistas want an electric compressor, and it may well be the optimal approach for most vehicular applications. Ice may also be an effective approach for other applications, especially when the battery is not as robust as a PbC.
    7 May 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Aren’t the average miles per gallon claims based on the presence of a functioning start/stop system?
    7 May 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    YMMV - the great disclaimer. Mileage claims are not guaranteed by the manufacturer. Mileage claims are simply artificial numbers produced by the EPA.
    7 May 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    One of the big debates is the poor testing used by the EPA for S/S.

     

    As I understand it they use the same test for every car. Since the test does not require multiple stops the S/S system fares poorly when rated. However, it tests well by drivers using it. Exactly the opposite of every other mpg test done by the EPA.
    Europe uses a different test and S?S is being readily adopted over there.
    7 May 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Rick ?
    http://tinyurl.com/7j2...
    7 May 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    There are no coincidences in this affair. The EPA has an institutional position against S/S.
    7 May 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Rick K > "I do not see any fundamental reason for five minutes why the a/c fan blowing over a few pounds of ice woudn't keep the occupants as cool as having an electrically driven compressor."

     

    :-) I think if there was much market potential for 'thermal mass' based auto A/C there would already be quite a few vehicles on the road equipped with such A/C systems. I'm not aware of many such vehicles on the road. And, I suspect a large part of the reason for that is related to hours of use and travel circumstances.
    For thermal mass systems to work, it seems to me they must be chilled at some point and if not chilled by equipment on the vehicle then the mass must be "loaded" periodically with energy from an external source.

     

    Many, if not most, vehicles are parked most of the day (and generally in unconditioned space) while their operators are working, sleeping, etc. Somehow I don't see many people willing to trade off their current "turn the key and go" auto systems for one that would require a daily pit stop to "load" their cooling systems before heading home/to their next job/etc. Fleet operators with vehicles in use throughout the day would likely find automotive "thermal mass" A/C systems a bit more functional.
    7 May 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Do you know the basis for the negative position Trip?
    7 May 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    No matter how the case is appealed, you can bet changes are coming in the fraudulent advertising and also the batteries they use.

     

    I am proud someone went the extra mile.
    7 May 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    They haven't liked SS since the days when GM tried it long ago.

     

    I believe the current bias is based upon the agenda pushing toward an EV "solution". Even ethanol is no longer a welcome alternative, and I believe we might see a similar cool reception for CNG or LNG.
    7 May 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Rick K,
    If you are able/willing, as a follow up to your terrific and generous Electricity Storage Association conference reporting last week, would it be possible for you to comment on where and how you consider Axion to be positioned in this universe, with respect to its competitors, going forward?

     

    Also, did you feel more/less/equal enthusiasm for Axion at conference close than you did prior to the meeting?

     

    With thanks
    7 May 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The US fuel economy testing cycle is not as kind to stop-start as the European test cycle, but I don't necessarily think the EPA has an axe to grind against stop-start,

     

    If you dig through the adopting release for the 2010 CAFE rules, you'll find an EPA-NHTSA chart that forecasts a 39% stop-start implementation rate in the US by 2016. The biggest reason the EPA doesn't seem to be pushing for stop-start is their conviction that it's already baked in the cake.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 May 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, if a vehicle is not doing start/stop, there is no reason to store energy for the a/c, whether as ice or electricity. To maximize power for hard acceleration (just a few seconds), just drop the compressor load.

     

    I believe the Prius uses a variable speed electric compressor from their drive battery, which is a lot bigger that the start/stop scenarios envisioned for PbC.

     

    Sorry if I was not clear, the "ice cubes" scenario does nothing for parking all day, nor does a battery. One possible effective use for a "plug in" would be to maintain the a/c or heat at a comfortable level, as keep the engine block warm in very cold weather. This could be quite efficient, especially if it was on a timer or remote control. No need to keep the car interior warm all night; turn on the a/c just before punching your time clock.

     

    I mentioned ice only in reference to providing cooling for a few minutes at red lights. The compressor would first chill the passenger compartment, then continue chilling to make a reserve of ice for the next stop light. No "loading their cooling systems", no change in consumer behaviour. Neither scenario saves much, if any, energy; it just makes the passengers happier.
    7 May 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Wow, didn't expect that. Learn sumfin' new every day.
    7 May 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    I confess to being an Axionista. I think Axion has some great technology, and seems to be on the right path to monetizing it.

     

    That said, there is a huge amount of competition in all sectors of electrical storage, and some of that competition is driven by irrationality, subsidies, greenwashing, and the lethargic, anti-competitive bureaucracies of the electric grid. Nobody's philosophy is "Fight fair, and may the best man win".

     

    The huge challenge for everyone in the space is the very high capital costs of equipment relative to the low cost of electricity, making the economics very challenging. The big picture is beautiful, storing excess power from graceful wind turbines, striking reflections off of solar facilities, reducing coal emissions. Unfortunately, once you get out the magnifying glass and calculator, reality sets in.

     

    Perhaps a good analogy is the Brazilian rainforest. Beautiful, complex, and verdant, 100 times (or is it a 1000 times?) more explorers have died of starvation in the forest than in the Sahara desert or the barren high plateau of Tibet.

     

    I think I came back from the conference slightly less enthusiastic for Axion, but only because of the scale and diversity of competition. Absolutely critical to success will be very sharp focus on specific, high value energy propositions. Often that means not grid-tied, because grid energy is usually only worth between a nickel and a quarter; off-grid power is often worth over a buck. In my view, being a "generalist" battery or energy storage company is an obvious recipe for failure.

     

    Axion has focus on several off-grid applications: s/s autos, locomotives, and oil platforms. In my opinion, that is good.

     

    Grid stabilization, frequency regulation, etc., is very confusing and political. While I easily understand the big picture, the nitty-gritty appears to be infinitely complicated, and I find it extremely difficult to get solid, consistent, actionable information. I definitely am not a regulatory geek. There was a great deal of chatter about the new FERC rule 755 http://bit.ly/ISGale which, if I understand it (and probably don't), would have saved Beacon from bankruptcy if it had come out on schedule, and means a whole bunch of money will flow down different paths to new players. I know I don't have the intestinal fortitude to redigest so much bureacratic biomass, and have not tried.

     

    I think the result of 755 is two fold: 1) operations like Axion's PJM interconnect are more likely to generate (more) cash, 2) armies of like-minded companies from GE, A123, dozens of still private companies, and more, are homing in like flies to a dead cow. I have no feel if Axion is a leader or prospective roadkill. A single datum from a GE engineer said their system is about $1000/kwhr, and is still in the very early phases. I think their biggest Durathon prototype, well under 100kwhr, is "about to to be tested." . If my information is correct, Axion appears to be well ahead in both price and service. I thought I had heard Axion's PowerCube is expected to be c. $500-600 kwhr; can anyone confirm that?

     

    My data-free gut feeling is there are at least a dozen companies each expecting to claim a minimum 50% market share. From my position of near-ignorance I think there will be a lot of bloodshed in this tiny corner of the market, and multiple large, other less-visible opportunities elsewhere.

     

    JP has identified in prior articles quite a few of the expected market slices, and I am sure he has much more fortitude in deciphering the meanings in the Gospel 755. John, perhaps a review of grid markets?

     

    I am not trying to sound negative. I was not able to connect with Vani or anybody else from Axion, and so have no "inside scoop".

     

    Let me answer the unasked question, "Should Axion have exhibited at the ESA?' I don't think so. The meeting was quite inbred, a lot of battery people talking liars poker with other battery people. I did not hear any gossip of big deals, joys of closure, key presentation to Mr. Big, etc. In short, I see no reason to second guess management on this, and saving money is a good thing.
    7 May 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2451) | Send Message
     
    Rick, thank you very much for the time you took to report back -- and for presenting such a candid summary of what you saw and heard at the conference. In my book, it adds a lot of credibility to this APC.

     

    mj
    7 May 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Thanks for the update. Your honesty about the complications of making money now from grid storage seems spot on.
    Hope you learned something valuable from attending the conference. I have never gone to a seminar where I didn't learn at least one good thing.
    7 May 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Rick, many thanks for the reporting and lucid assessments. You're consistently one of the highest S/N ratio contributors we have.
    7 May 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding summary and evaluation Rick.

     

    IMO, you added a dimension we hadn't examined before.

     

    Thank you sir!

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Now it will be really cool if Ryan jumps in with his take-aways from ESA because two perspectives are always better than one.
    7 May 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick, as MJ said for a very "candid" summary. I knew there was a lot of competition there and the big boys are gonna go after it. And I agree on the blood shed along the way.

     

    Interesting comment about Beacon, I always thought they would make it in their niche. Wonder if whoever winds up with their assets will resurrect it?
    7 May 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Beacon is definitely up and running. They have 29 employees and are moving forward as a private company. Not just us foolish too-early investors got burned; my contact, who has been there five years, lost all her accumulated stock and options, too. I don't remember specifics, but they are in the middle of another 20Mw project in Pennsylvania. http://bit.ly/JR65ay. #755 is very beneficial to them now.
    7 May 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Beacon might be up and running but the biggest problem was the breaking flywheels. Was the problem resolved or is the product not ready for prime time?
    7 May 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Every time I think of the Beacon debacle, I just see red. Life is hard. Life is harder when you're stupid. Some lessons have all the subtlety of a sidewalk faceplant.
    7 May 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    " Life is harder when your stupid"

     

    Thanks for reminding me how hard my life has been. At least now I have a reason to blame it on. :-)
    7 May 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Nice! thanks Rick. I got the impression that Axion went to the conference to demonstrate their battery more than their PowerCube (more of a supplier than a competitor). Or were they selling the PowerCube?
    7 May 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    I haven't had any conversation with Axion employees so cannot speak as to their intent. They did not exhibit. They gave a presentation which I wouldn't really call a sales pitch. The presentation is linked to one my earlier posts.
    7 May 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Rick, thanks for the candid comments. I may be completely mistaken, but I view these ESA functions and call for IEEE papers as a type of platform to talk about technical details about one's own application versus other applications.

     

    Since late last year, Axion has been gathering data on the powercube from their installation ... since then, we have received updates on the equalization benefit and some updates on how the cube is working or will work in the FERC regulatory scheme.

     

    For the most part, it appeared to me that their presentation was the beginning of sharing this data with the "battery geek" community. Hopefully as they gather more data and refine its meaning, Axion will be able to step up to a technical white paper the same way they went from the start/stop test protocol, and powerpoints to a full white paper.

     

    I think you made an astute observation that it was not a sales pitch.
    7 May 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Can I steal your line that "Life is hard. Life is harder when you're stupid." Please??
    8 May 2012, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Yes, "Stupidity is its own just reward".

     

    But let us not confuse "stupid" (which a wise poet recently told us on the subject: "You can't fix stupid") and "ignorant". SOME of the ignorant are also stupid, and unfixable, but most of us can hope that sufficient hard work (plus the occasional episode of blind luck like stumbling across data-hoards like this blog) will bring us bits of knowledge to offset some of the ignorance.
    8 May 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1571) | Send Message
     
    Seems more likely that the test was designed before S/S existed.
    8 May 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely John. I know I certainly didn't invent it, in fact I think it comes from an old John Wayne poster or somesuch back in the 70s, from a strange place called "America" ... so anyway I didn't author it, not me, but I have tested it plenty... ;)
    8 May 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    You are a generous man and a wonderful human being.
    8 May 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Rick...let me add to the kudos.

     

    Candid, direct, informative, open...and may I write...even troll proof!...
    ;-)
    8 May 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    So what could it mean in terms of sales volume if BMW launched its PbC S/S models in the U.S. and does Axion have the capacity to produce such volumes of electrodes?

     

    Addressing luxury models only http://tinyurl.com/8a8... reports, "U.S. sales of Mercedes vehicles rose to 22,336 last month while BMW deliveries increased 12 percent to 21,062, according to statements yesterday by the companies." BMW of North America appears to market at least ten different model series in U.S. Averaging 2,110 vehicle sales per month per series would generate 21,100 sales.

     

    Working three shifts, Axion's Gen2A line is reportedly capable of producing enough PbC electrodes to supply 300 12v batteries per day with each battery using 30 electrodes. Axion's Charge Acceptance white paper suggests S/S could use 16v batteries which would use ~40 electrodes per battery.

     

    9,000 electrodes per day (300X30) divided by 40 indicates sufficient electrodes for 225 16v batteries per day.

     

    225 batteries X 20 work days per month = 4,500 batteries per month or more than 2X the ~ 2,100 vehicles per BMW series. 4,500 16v batteries per month is enough capacity to supply a BMW model line in the U.S. market, a new switcher locomotive, and a PowerCube sale.

     

    Of course, trusting the above math effectively assumes I am capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time today.

     

    6 May 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    When you go from a 12-volt design to a 16 volt design the number of cells changes, but the size of the case remains the same so the number of electrodes does not increase proportionally. A 12-volt battery has 5 PbC electrodes in each of six cells. Since the 16-volt cells are narrower, they'll probably only have 4 PbC electrodes per cell, although the number might be as low as 3 if the customer wanted the lead based positive electrodes to be a bit thicker and a bit more robust.
    7 May 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP. If I understand the implications of your comment correctly, you just pointed us in the direction of PbC energy-vs-power optimization design trade-off.
    7 May 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I know that electrode thickness and configurations count, but don't know enough of the detail to discuss the differences in detail. One point that may be helpful is that the device patent speaks of "N carbon electrode assemblies and N+1 lead electrodes." I think most flooded and AGM batteries have an equal number of positive and negative electrodes.
    7 May 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, actually JP's comment about 12V vs 16V has almost nothing to do with power vs energy. Putting more cells in series raises the voltage (duh), with the effect of using more of the potential energy of the battery before a cutoff voltage, typically 10.5V. Since PbCs drop voltage quicker than other Pb chemistries, starting with a higher voltages gives the battery more "breathing room" before cutout.

     

    High power batteries (high kw) typically have thinner plates with more surface area, so the electrons can "come out" faster. High energy batteries (more kwhr) typically have thicker plates, so more electrons "come out", but come out slower (less amps). This balance of power vs power is true whether six or eight cells are in series.

     

    Bottom line, there are a lot of configurations available on batteries, depending on the requirement. The above discussion is equally true for flooded lead acids and AGMs.
    7 May 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rick.
    7 May 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1831) | Send Message
     
    http://bloom.bg/JWwlxG

     

    To go with your morning coffee....
    7 May 2012, 03:43 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    I know this has been mentioned before, but what is the cost of an AGM battery from JCI ?
    We know the PbC is running about $350-450 each.

     

    I'm getting ahead of AXPW's pace...but "testing" is getting to be a 4 letter word for me....I am ready to see TG do the next round of funding for the gen-3 line and then take one of these smaller auto orders ... do not take this as a complaint, but I am ready to see the battery out in the field working on a small scale.. He should be far enough along with BMW to know what it takes.
    7 May 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    I know that you, along with the rest of us would love to see an automotive order. But it is not going to happen until the manufacturer is 100% positive of the anticipated results. Recalls are very expensive in both money and in bad publicity.

     

    Remember that the auto manufacturers are not the end user. They are selling to millions of people that abuse their machines in a myriad of ways. You wouldn't order one million PbCs until you were sure the 10,000 you tested stood up to regular punishment.

     

    Axionista test: Complete the rest of this sentence...

     

    If patience is a virtue then Axionistas are ___________
    7 May 2012, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    I am patient...but the orders I am referring to are not "millions" they are in the thousands, or at most 100-200 thousand.
    7 May 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    We all hope for the news on the first automotive order.
    I would be very disappointed if Axion ordered a Gen 3 line without an order in hand, as your post suggests.. It would not be normal for this company to spend several million dollars on an unneeded line. Axion can produce 4-5 thousand PbCs per month now. It should take no more than 8 weeks to order an install any new lines needed.

     

    I was with you on being tired of testing. But the NS order has quieted my thoughts on the future of the company. The NS order was the first step in a very long journey. But at least Axion has taken the first step forward.
    7 May 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    i agree with that ...
    7 May 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    In 2009, the average price an automaker paid for a flooded battery was in the neighborhood of $60. JCI has said on any number of occasions that their per unit revenue on AGM is double their per unit revenue for flooded batteries. That tells me something in the $120 range is probably a pretty good guess.
    7 May 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting. Thanks for the price point info, JP. If auto OEMs pay $60 for flooded batteries, AXPW is likely receiving $50 or less for the flooded batteries it is producing under toll contract (assuming those batteries are 12v auto OEM models).

     

    Working from the estimated $2.5 mil toll contract revenue included in AXPW's '11Q4 quarterly earnings, $50/battery would imply a production volume of 50,000 batteries per quarter. 20 working days per month times three months gives 60 working days for 50,000 batteries or a production rate of 833 per day. Against its 3,000 batteries per day license permit(s), a run rate of 833 leaves plenty of room for expansion of both FLA and AGM (LA or PbC).
    7 May 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    If Axion is receiving the materials free from EastPenn would they still be charging $50?
    7 May 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Contacts that involve inventory consignments are a legal and accounting nightmare so the more common practice is to have a company like Axion buy the components (either from its customer or from customer approved suppliers) and then sell the finished products to the customer for an agreed price equal to component costs plus fixed amount per unit to cover manufacturing costs and provide an operating margin.
    7 May 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Saints.
    7 May 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Humor of the day: someone made a big bet on (TSLA) pre-market: 70K traded at $31.85.

     

    Currently up 1.45%, $32.29.

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Listening to the ZBB CC right now.. Stephen really knocked it out of the park with his slate of questions... hat's off to him.
    7 May 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    Please update us on the highlights of Stephens questions and the call in general, I can't listen to it for a few days.
    7 May 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Haha, thanks. First time for everything.
    7 May 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    When I get a chance to listen again and collect my thoughts on the overall call and announcements, I will likely write another instablog.
    7 May 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I would not be surprised to see AGM batteries in the first iteration of 12v production cars in the US. It is a step up from what they started with in Europe. What will interest me more is the number of batteries in the vehicle.

     

    I expect to see the PbC debut in the high end cars (Mercedes, BMW) with a higher voltage and where the demand for a performance battery is greater. I am looking more towards 2013 for a PbC in a SS vehicle...
    7 May 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Thank you so much for bringing the question back to the forefront of my aging mind. For months I've had a nagging recollection that the UK version of the Ford Focus Econetic with stop start used two batteries instead of one, but I always got distracted before searching for the stories.

     

    As it turns out, my recollection was right. Try these stories.

     

    http://bit.ly/JbGPbR
    http://tgr.ph/vq8sNd
    7 May 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    That's quite the MPG that Focus is getting. They will be taking orders for the 2013 Fusion SS next month and I am very curious how much of the UK Focus SS will come over. I am really looking forward to seeing how all the automakers implement SS...
    7 May 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Remember they're also talking about Imperial Gallons.
    7 May 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    You have to remember that the MPG for the Focus in the UK is using a diesel engine, something Ford hasn't brought back to the US in the past. It will be interesting to see, with the good publicity that VW has been getting with their TDI Jetta, if Ford and others will start selling more diesels here in the US as well.
    7 May 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Ford looked at bringing the diesel to the US two years ago. They concluded that Americans will not pay the $5,000 extra needed to buy the diesel engine.
    I wish I could find that article. About two years old.
    7 May 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Over the last year, clean diesels from European manufacturers have been rapidly gaining ground in the US. Oddly enough, they seem to be cannibalizing the HEV market, where the premiums are comparable.

     

    The only place that I've seen clean diesel sales tracked separately is the monthly dashboard from HybridCars.com which breaks the data down by manufacturer and model.

     

    http://bit.ly/KE5yWn
    7 May 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Why won't Americans buy and pay extra for the S/S system of Ford?
    The last line of the story says it all.

     

    "To recoup the extra cost of the stop/start model, at today's fuel prices, you need to do more than 210,000 miles per annum. "
    7 May 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Just as point of reference, at local shopping center today in France. On display was a Nissan Leaf with a price of 35,000 Euro (45,500 USD) and a Nissan Juke - a small SUV with diesel engine - at 20,000 Euro (26,000 USD). The Leaf electrical drive components are guaranteed for 5 yrs or 100,000 kilometers (65,000 miles roughly). The rest of the car for 3 years or 60,000 kms. Rough calculation is that Juke would get around 50 miles to the U.S. gallon on the highway. 19,000 USD price difference is a lot of diesel and would prefer to sit higher, etc. A little hard to compare since different classes of automobile, but just my impression.
    7 May 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    An Imperial gallon of diesel has 1.4 times the energy of US ethanol- adulterated (10%) gasoline. So the touted British 74.2 mpg = US 53 mpg. Still quite respectable.
    7 May 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Diesel is cheaper than gasoline in Europe - at least in counties I am familiar with, Spain, Portugal, France. So not only better fuel economy, but cheaper fuel price.
    7 May 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    metro. You would think that diesel would be cheaper here in the US but sadly it is not (in most cases). However, the fuel economy is much better and I do like the performance <smile>...
    7 May 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Looked today at price of diesel in France. Was about 1.35 per liter diesel vs. 1.62 per liter unleaded regular.
    8 May 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    That MPG for the Focus is amazing. I don't know the current exchange rate for the pound vs the USD, but did notice that the S/S didn't add that much to the price. Nice to see somebody is using common sense in choosing diesel for the power plant. Now if they would just build a Ranger sized pickup truck diesel with S/S. (sigh)
    7 May 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Here you go.

     

    http://yhoo.it/Lx9XiQ;to=GBP;amt=1.279

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL.
    7 May 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Test Driving the 2013 Kia Rio with start/stop

     

    For those interested in my little adventure I wrote an instablog about it.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 May 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Nice instablog. I commented in your blog. Well worth reading by all. Head over there folks.
    7 May 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Great job, Futurist. Nice to see that the only thing missing is an adequate battery for full, long-term s/s function. I wonder who might have one of those?

     

    Things are falling into place for Axion's PbC really, really well, IMO.
    7 May 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Nicely done! thanks...
    7 May 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Utilities’ Honest Assessment of Solar in the Electricity Supply:

     

    “If we fast-forward to this conference five years from now, half of the agenda is going to be storage.”

     

    Plus: SDG&E expects to be testing “eight storage devices by the end of this year,” Thomas said.

     

    Let's all hope the PbC is being considered. Constellation Energy is a massive company.

     

    http://bit.ly/IIxhIL
    7 May 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Maybe a good question for the next CC.

     

    TG may not be able to answer but it's still worth asking.

     

    D
    7 May 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    JP> Do you know how many shares are unencumbered by warrants for future capital raises of the total 200M shares authorized?
    7 May 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Precise data will be in the footnotes to the financial statements in the Form 10-K. As I recall, less than 15 million shares are encumbered by options and warrants.
    7 May 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Close enough. Thanks JP. Plenty of authorized shares in the till. Appreciated.
    7 May 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    A MYSTERY STORY FOR YOUR PERUSAL
    about the PbC, Sandia labs, and the Advanced Lead Acid Battery Consortium ( ALABC).

     

    I found a report by Sandia Lab in 2005 that basically studied the different battery types for the utility industry.. This study was phase 1 of a three part study. The report first looked at the PbC to see if it had merit in actually helping utilities cut costs. It was estimated that a PbC might be as low as $250 per KWh, which sounded very low to all the battery makers.

     

    To study the PbC, Sandia lab decided to build their own. They had such difficulty building the device they made this determination:

     

    "In Phase I, lead/carbon asymmetric capacitors were compared to other technologies that used the same or similar materials. At the end of Phase I (in 2005) it was found that lead/carbon asymmetric capacitors were not yet fully developed and optimized (cost/performance) to be a viable option for utility-scale applications."

     

    Phase two went like this:
    It was, however, determined that adding carbon to the negative
    electrode of a standard lead-acid battery showed promise for performance
    improvements that could be beneficial for use in utility-scale applications. In Phase II various carbon types were developed and evaluated in lead-acid batteries. Overall it was found that mesoporous activated carbon at low loadings and graphite at high loadings gave the best cycle performance in shallow PSoC
    cycling."

     

    So Sandia couldn't build a PbC. So all the lead acid battery makers decided that utilities should add negative paste to the LAB to improve performance. In this way that pesky Axion patent would not be in the way.

     

    Here is the link to the phase three study of adding paste to help out the utility industry. Reading this has eliminated my questioning about why the Federal Government has not funded Axion with more grant money.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ac9sGQ

     

    Warning: Very technical data, but good even for us novices. Also shows why the other battery manufacturers have to give in to the PbC at some point. Its simply to good for the money.
    7 May 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Futurist.

     

    Heads up, folks. Futurist's post on the Sandia Labs reports was never flagged for me as a new comment. Earlier today, one of Rick's messages responding to a comment by me was never flagged as New.
    7 May 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    "Reading this has eliminated my questioning about why the Federal Government has not funded Axion with more grant money."

     

    Futurist, can you give this statement a little more colour?

     

    Do you mean to say that because of Sandia's initial inability to create a PbC they excluded it from the study and then, because it wasn't in the study, they didn't have their own first-hand data to support the granting of public funds?

     

    Thanks for the link,

     

    D
    7 May 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    you have to take that report with a grain of salt, it is 7 years old. We of all people know how long AXPW has taken to get demo's to mkt.
    7 May 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    LT, phase 1 study is 7 years old. The linked study (pahse 3) is dated June 2009.
    7 May 2012, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Interesting who did a lot of the work on these reports:

     

    From the Acknowledgments section:

     

    "This project was initiated and initially led by Ben Craft (currently at NorthStar Battery) and subsequently by Enders Dickinson (currently at Axion Power). Ben and Enders completed the bulk of the work."

     

    "Portions of this report were adapted from work by other authors:
    • Much of the Introduction was originally written by Ed Buiel (currently at Axion Power) while he was at MeadWestvaco.
    • Phase I and Phase II documentation was adapted from reports and presentations prepared by Ben Craft and Enders Dickinson while they were at MeadWestvaco."
    8 May 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The most interesting aspect of that particular Sandia study was that they tried to make a PbC equivalent and couldn't get it to work right. The design isn't that complex, but the engineering required to optimize the electrode assembly has been a monstrous amount of work. If Sandia National Labs can't make a working PbC, what does that say about the likelihood that a cut-rate competitor will emerge on the scene, create a competitive knock-off and survive the inevitable patent lawsuit from Axion?
    8 May 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    D.McHattie,
    My thinking was that Sandia couldn't make the PbC and simply qualified it as "not practical for large scale utility needs since a commercial process wasn't available.

     

    When the other phases of the study were done the PbC was left out. My how convenient for all those major battery makers. When the government came calling for bail out money in 2009 who got all the loans? All those battery manufacturers ( including the ultra battery) and a measly portion for Axion/with Exide since Axion couldn't possibly commercialize the project on its own.

     

    Now from what I read in the report the carbon added LAB do very well in the utility area. Waiting for someone with more expertise to chime in on that one. So, a decision to go with a cheaper product might be right. It just seems suspicious.
    8 May 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    You need to remember that as you add carbon you get a good, better, best scenario in most applications. Carbon paste additives make lead-acid work better in a utility setting. PbC electrode assemblies make lead-acid work a lot better. The user's choice will ultimately be determined by his load profile and his capital and maintenance budgets. No silver bullets. Just competitive products with advantages and disadvantages.
    8 May 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Completely random - I have been meaning to put something together on Cytomedix - a company I have been long in for about a year.

     

    If interested, please see here -

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 May 2012, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday Toyota announced that its RAV4-EV will sell for $49,800, as compared to $22,650 for the gasoline powered version.

     

    http://bloom.bg/Jar3zC

     

    I don't know about anybody else, but I think a $27,150 option on a $22,650 car is a bit steep.

     

    To put that premium in perspective, the DOE says it will cost $2,600 a year to fuel a conventional RAV4 – http://1.usa.gov/KBLbPl

     

    The great part is that the drivetrain will come from Tesla which plans on selling them by the thousands.
    8 May 2012, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    So considering a ten year cost comparison, 150,000 miles of fuel in the 6 cylinder RAV4 costs less than the battery in the Tesla-powered RAV4, which is not expected to last 150,000 miles, anyway.

     

    And that ignores the cost of the coal-derived electricity from the grid, and the intangible costs of range anxiety and potential concerns about battery safety.

     

    Is this not the definition of "no brainer?"

     

    Will anybody outside of Southern California buy these?
    8 May 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I'm not even sure they'll sell in the granola bowl.
    8 May 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    I'm still hoping that the collaboration between VW and Toyota eventually yields what I "really" want...which is a diesel Rav4. Imagine it. Gets 40 mpg, has three rows of seats for halling the kids, their friends and all their crap and won't cost more than I take home in a year! "If you build it...I will buy!"
    8 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Here's a great example of why all the mainstream auto manufactures are going to have problems selling EVs, in that they already have ICE models to compare the EVs to. Tesla has it easy. They sell the Roadster or the S. Anyone who is going to buy one is doing so to say they have a Roadster or a Model-S. They aren't doing it while worrying about a budget or feeding their kids. They are doing it as a feel good statement that they can throw their surplus money at. You buy a Rav4 because you need the space to put your kids in, you like Toyota's reliability, and it's affordable. The moment that third fact is no longer true, is the moment that an EV becomes an afterthought. IMHO.
    8 May 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Grid going wireless:

     

    The global wireless networking standard enables interoperable communications between certain smart grid devices, including smart meters and smart home appliances. It establishes common and consistent communication specifications for utilities deploying smart grid technologies.

     

    The standard's baseline specifications for wireless communications will allow millions of devices to interoperate with each other in mesh, star, point-to-point, or any other topology, according to the companies.

     

    http://bit.ly/JTt30A
    8 May 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I have been looking at the smart grid meter market for several years. If anyone has an idea which company will win that race I am all ears.
    GE and Sieman are just to big.
    8 May 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... "5 big companies fighting for market share in the U.S. right now, including Itron, Landis+Gyr, Sensus, Elster, and GE."

     

    http://bit.ly/KChDRJ

     

    (GE) & (ITRI) but it is getting a little late for this game.
    8 May 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Smart Grid is a solution looking for sponsor, and has a lot of invisible enemies. It *should* make sense: turn stuff off when you don't need it, use the cheapest energy for the job, don't stress the grid, etc.

     

    Utilities make money by selling more electricity. Selling less is not exciting. They see "smart meters" a cheaper way to read meters, and charge more in the afternoon. (Charging less at night is less exciting. Turning off wasteful appliances is less exciting. Surprise, surprise) [invisible enemy 1]

     

    Appliance manufacturers want to build cheap and sell expensive. Saving energy does not help them (Getting a sticker that *says* they save energy is nice marketing, but may not have anything to do with actually saving energy). It is cheaper to make stupid, cosmetically-smart, energy pigs than better technology. This pig lipstick consists of a few extra LEDs, a non-functional knob that says "Eco", new graphics, and some green-eco-PR gibberish in the Users Manual. [invisible enemy 2]

     

    Landlords and developers do not care about energy efficiency or smart appliances; the tenant or new owner pays for the electricity. [invisible enemy 3]

     

    The government is not full of smart people who want to work hard. The easier path is to hold meetings and get information about smart energy from experts: utilities, appliance makers, and large buyers of appliances. New edicts are formulated from their expert testimony, and everybody supports the new rules (so they must be good!)

     

    GE will probably win with a new line of All-American pig lipstick, made in China. Their advertising will make us feel warm (in the summer), yet cool (in the winter).
    8 May 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    Very well put, especially the part about the utilities make money by selling "More" electricity and the consumer paying for non-efficient homes & appliances.
    All the above and the size of the companies vying for the market makes it difficult for a company like Axion to penetrate the mkt.
    8 May 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    Rick,,
    thanks again for the update on the Energy conference. Your candid take that you presented to the group here confirms my thoughts that it will be 2013-2015 before AXPW can land any significant deals with utilities. TG's wisdom shows more every day as new concrete info is divulged... as in going for "behind the meter" first with the PC with Viridity. We just need to settle the new FERC rules with a payment structure that benefits all and is fair to utilities so they stop fighting it.
    They were caught off guard on the ruling and did not think it would pass. Now there is a standoff going on that must be resolved to move forward.

     

    I think AXPW will meet TG's goal of 300% yr/yr growth, but the home run is going to be slower and more competition than some think.
    8 May 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    You got my vote for best post of the day, with the "pig lipstick" comments!

     

    Invisible enemy 4 is the one that scares me most.

     

    Still chuckling...
    8 May 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Another company not mentioned that already is a strong leading player in the developing Smart Grid is Johnson Controls, which bought EnergyConnect last year :

     

    http://bit.ly/KL7V9f
    8 May 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    An important link to information on the Ultrabattery was posted on Brand X. – http://bit.ly/IVG4mm

     

    Page 2 of the report discusses a marked tendency of their split negative plate to generate free hydrogen as it approaches the upper state of charge - significantly more hydrogen than is typical in a flooded lead-acid battery. They've apparently developed an additive that takes hydrogen generation down to levels that are roughly the same as flooded lead-acid, but it's a significant drawback compared to the PbC which has extraordinary hydrogen recombination characteristics.
    8 May 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    JP, could you clarify why this is a significant drawback to the UB if in fact they have developed an additive that addresses the problem?
    8 May 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    If you look at the graph on page 2, you'll see that the UB without the additive generated several times the gas of conventional lead-acid and all the additive did was take the gas generation down to a level that's slightly higher than normal. If you can't eliminate the gassing, you have to either go with a flooded design that requires periodic maintenance to top up electrolyte levels or slow the charging rate to prevent gassing.
    8 May 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Ah, that's very helpful, thanks. This answers a question I recently had, as I've been looking over Furukawa docs and saw references to the 'flooded-type UltraBattery.' I was wondering why on earth they would use a flooded-design. Now we know. Can you add any color on the maintenance routine for flooded and how likely that is to be an important factor in the relevant different apps?
    9 May 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I can't really add much color on what the maintenance routine would be, but if you think of a PowerCube sized installation with 1,000 batteries, paying somebody to check and correct fluid levels on 6,000 cells is costly and most commercial users want storage to be as maintenance free as possible. I think they make the UB in an AGM format, but have to dial back the charge rate to avoid pressure build up.
    9 May 2012, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • AAxion
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Hi, I have a quick question about Axion's technology, which I was advised to look for for by a battery engineer I bumped into. How deep can the PBC discharge to, before being required to be recharged? I understood from him that lead acid batteries have the limitation of having to be only discharged to say 70-80% levels (e.g. only 20-30% used), before it has to be recharged. Going lower than that repeatedly could damage the battery.... Any thoughts?
    8 May 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Aaxion -

     

    Flooded lead acid batteries regularly go to 50% discharge with minimal impact of product life (100s of cycles). Many UPS and intermittent energy system are engineered to 80% discharge, leaving 20% in reserve. This shortens the battery life, but is cost and weight effective for most applications. Full discharge (100%) reduces battery life by 90% or more (10s of cycles)

     

    PbC batteries reportedly can go thousands of cycles to 100% discharge.

     

    An intro http://bit.ly/KK3cp2
    8 May 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    You again?
    8 May 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Let's give this post a try (Sorry all still working on computer network issues).

     

    Here is an article concerning some energy storage efforts with ultracaps. Note our old friend Valeo. But I found Corning's mention of supplying the capacitors of interest. I know Corning is big in ceramics such as those used as the active material carrier in catalytic converters.

     

    http://bit.ly/KiC0Ad
    8 May 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Welcome aboard. Thought we lost you there when you signed out of the other place. You are a great poster and very welcome.
    8 May 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    battman,

     

    Yeah, I'm one for one today. Also someone here was kind enough to contact SA and I got a response from an administrator with a resource contact if necessary. If you get this I'm 2 for 2 and that's a much better stat. on possible longer term success!

     

    Anyway, Thanks for the welcome. Hopefully I can join in soon without fading in and out so I can focus more on the topic at hand. Looking forward to traveling the learning curve with everyone else. I've followed the group almost since inception so the path going forward will be a little more seamless. Just gotta get this computer tech. thing behind me.
    8 May 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2420) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, welcome to the group. I've heard good things about your contributions on energy storage at location Y :-)
    8 May 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Man I am glad you are here. Your knowledgeable and perceptive remarks are highly beneficial to all of us here. Welcome!
    8 May 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    siliconhillbilly, Someone has to be getting concerned about having too many engineers in the room. Too many elbows flying around and static electricity from all the slide rules!

     

    Anyway, this article is one I tried to post on Sunday. Note the cell voltage, the energy density and hoped for cycle life. Should look familiar to PBC followers. Of coarse a little reading should make one think of cost pretty quickly.

     

    This is all pretty advanced stuff. If only someone was close to offering it today.

     

    http://bit.ly/JV3A7f

     

    If this post works I'm 3 for 3. Three strikes and I'm in.
    8 May 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Indelco, wow, 25 Whrs/kg for a capacitor! Better than PbC.

     

    Of course, anything with graphene in it usually has $$$$ on the box...
    8 May 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Rick

     

    I think its in the $$$$ + $$$ box.
    8 May 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    If its the same one being discussed at the last sf con I went to, its more like $$$$$$...
    8 May 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Hey bang, I made it.

     

    Had problems initially getting through the door. I think it was like the US airports but instead of sniffing for explosive fragments the Axion Power Host probably adjusted the sniffer to look for troll scent. I'm sure I'm well scented due to proximity. Or maybe I just plain stink!
    8 May 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Hello Rick, A belated Thank You for your seminar note posting of late.

     

    Yeah, If you look at the Rosewater Energy data, the energy storage data quoted over an hour for the PBC battery is less. However I'm not sure that this is to full DOD. If we look at the BMW presentation that John was nice enough to post for us on line the paper shows 25 Wh/kg. I know from past posts that Kirk has indicated that the unit can be adjusted for power and energy so I'm sure that these data points are probably different Oranges being compared. So if we use the BMW number the two are equivalent in this metric.

     

    I sure wish Axion was more forth coming with data on their site vs fractional information over time. Oh well, the competition is tough. No sense giving them any advantage.

     

    Now....about that cost thought again. :)

     

    The BMW file I referred to.

     

    http://bit.ly/oIU19K
    8 May 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    I don't think APH did anything - you were well known and regard before you appeared.

     

    SA does have a policy of delaying comments for new IDs though.

     

    It usually winds down after some time or number of comments - I'm not sure which.

     

    It looks like your delay is gone already.

     

    That's my guess.
    HradToLove
    8 May 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Welcome to the Axion Power Concentrators, iindelco!

     

    Glad you've joined the white hats!

     

    Another intriguing battery being developed is the "lithium-air" battery by IBM, which may arrive in the automotive scene by 2020.

     

    http://aol.it/JVrrnc

     

    8 May 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Hello HTL, First Thanks for your technical analysis additions. I'm not a technician myself but I do know that they cannot be ignored and I've appreciated growing along with you some while you've been gratuitous enough to share your journey. It appears you're doing a bang up job in understanding/applying the tools and also helping those that wish to learn at some level to follow along. (Been following the board for some time.)

     

    As for the troll scent comments. Sorry to you and APH if my words were taken as anything other than humor which was the intent. I suffer some from trying to lighten things up a bit but I surely am aware that one should err toward the side of caution when applying the technique. As a newbie in this form I should have been more cautious. So again sorry to all for any misunderstanding.
    8 May 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There was no misunderstanding. We do smell the scent of troll on you but only like the bit of napalm on the good American soldier who fought the good fight in a war that could not be won. Welcome home brother.
    8 May 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Did you misunderstand? I saw nothing and felt APH saw nothing objectionable.

     

    SA has a policy of delaying posting of comments by newer folks and I was thinking that may have caused your difficulty.,

     

    Sorry for any misunderstanding.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    HTL and APH, No misunderstanding.

     

    Yes, aware of the delays. Just wanted to make sure I don't get off on the wrong foot.

     

    No there were real issues. Nice they seem to be resolved but it was frustrating spending a few hours watch post attempts byte the dust.
    8 May 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like