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  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    On the heels of Rick's comments on ESA - here are two articles -

     

    http://aol.it/JbXmyi

     

    http://aol.it/JbXDRY
    8 May 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    Great articles! The last paragraph of the first link surprised me:

     

    Storage's potential to stabilize the grid has one sector worried, said Hesser: electricity traders. About 15% of current power bills are due to trading, but trading opportunities will flatten out if volatility does.

     

    I had never heard that--my electric bill is 15% higher essentially because of Enron-esque financial manipulation?
    8 May 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Bovey said her company built the 30-MW Kahuku wind project "on the knife's edge of a mountain" on Oahu, adding in 15 MW of Xtreme Power's batteries and software. The key to success, she said, was less the battery chemistry chosen than the software that ensured millisecond reactions.
    8 May 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    MitchS, I have heard similar statements from an army of financially illiterate journalists. I am very skeptical.

     

    I think it comes from that 15% of the trading volume is from traders. For example, if the electric auction has a billion dollars of transactions in a month, $150 million of the transactions were from traders. Whether the traders lost money (and thereby saving the generators or utilities money) or made money, or effectively stabilized far-from-normal peak pricing or made it more unstable, never seems to be documented.

     

    I can not imagine any market that regularly "gives up" 15% of the market value in a product that expires every 15 minutes. Comments from the more knowledgeable greatly appreciated. Certainly even the most lethargic utility is not going to surrender 15% of gross revenues.
    8 May 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Concur.
    Mitch
    9 May 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    JaKurtz: Entered long 4 (TSLA) 5/19 $29 call contracts @ $2 and exited them at $2.40. After friction, ~16.5% for the round trip.

     

    It's only milk money, but it's in my wife's account, so it might be more than that! :-))

     

    4 for 4.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Tesla is gonna buy her a lot of AXPW if this keeps up.
    8 May 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I gotta learn how to do that...on second thought, I better not.
    8 May 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I found a small PbC project run by The Stella Group:

     

    "To educate the general public (aside from hosting weekly tours of his two zero- energy buildings and four “drop and play” renewable systems at his North Arlington location) TSG retrofitted a Dodge Caravan with a 48 inch all-weather flat screen which hangs on either exterior side of the van. To run the DVD player and the all-weather flat screen, two 450 watt Sanyo SIT photovoltaics panels, a 150 watt Marlec windturbine and a 60 watt Dynglobal flexible PV module – all mounted on the van rooftop. The generated electricity is stored in Axion Power hybrid carbon/supercapacitor batteries and are augmented by a 100 watt ReliOn PEM fuel cell powered by recycled industrial hydrogen. A host of clean energy informational materials, and of course renewable energy-powered videos run continually at the demonstration van."

     

    http://bit.ly/L2TNuK

     

    The document is from Oct. 2011. If you look at their other projects, you'll see that they are trying out a lot of different tech.

     

    More info on this project and pics at: http://bit.ly/ISuEoz

     

    The Stella Group was first mentioned in connection with Axion's zero-energy Navy installation. Apparently, the connection, which I didn't understand until now, is that the president of Stella, Scott Skylar, served as an early advisor to the Navy on the project: "Sklar, early advisor to NAVFAC on this project and various other ongoing DOD projects", http://bit.ly/L2TNuS)
    8 May 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Good finds Lafferty!

     

    Thanks for the effort and sharing!

     

    BTW, how's (THLD) holding up?

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Oh, if only, HTL, if only....
    But I hope you held.
    8 May 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    A friend bought about 50k shares of THLD in the 1.20's, and tried to convince me to join in. I declined since it seemed like they were diluting daily through ATM sales.

     

    The next day the began shooting up from their partnership deal. Oh, if only...

     

    Oh, did I mention I was waiting for the low 1.20's instead of paying the high 1.20's? LOL that's what you get for penny pinching!
    8 May 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Nope! I was somewhat silly and just took my profits early and ran away before the big announcement.

     

    No regrets though - I found that I'm more comfortable missing some of the gains, especially on things really unfamiliar to me like biopharma, than hanging inn for the long haul.

     

    If we'd had a board like this one, where I'm always learning more, I would've been able to hang in. That's what I'm doing on (NVAX), because I understand it and have taken some premium from selling covered calls so that my opportunity cost is lowered.

     

    There'll be more opportunities on (THLD) now. Once it gets a hookup like the recent one it should have some dips and rises that can be useful.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I've seen charts like that before.
    9 May 2012, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Global warming...150 million years ago...due to farts?

     

    http://on.msnbc.com/IX...
    8 May 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    The page is misnamed; it's called the Cosmic Log...should be the Comic Log.
    8 May 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW):
    Min. Pr: 0.4120
    Max Pr: 0.4280
    VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.4218
    # Trds: 27
    MinTrSz: 200
    MaxTrSz: 10932
    AvTrSz: 2929
    Vol 79083
    Buy:Sell 3.46:1

     

    I'll be updating the chart in my insta this P.M. after daily short sales are available.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like the jury's still out on the real cause here, but just from the picture... I mean, holy hell:

     

    http://engt.co/Je2JwJ

     

    http://bit.ly/IHlgzx
    9 May 2012, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how the owner felt about losing his Karma, but I'll guarantee that he's crushed over losing the NSX that was in the garage with it and was a limited production super car 20 years ago.

     

    I truly hope this was a problem with something other than the battery because I don't know how many more hits A123 can take.
    9 May 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like spontaneous human combustion http://bit.ly/KkkDzc without the human... suspicious.

     

    Of course, it is possible the Karma burned itself in hopes of being reincarnated as a cow.
    9 May 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    A Mercedes, an NSX and burned half the house? Bad Karma.
    9 May 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    What bothered me most was the "suggestion" by Fisker that fraud was involved.

     

    The names I would apply to Fisker, based on the update in the second article, are not fit for publication.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Reminds me of Tesla blaming the customer for not reading the owner's manual...

     

    LOL, my thought would be to insure that all PROSPECTIVE customers be required to read and sign off on the owner's manual, ie, learn precisely what lies ahead.
    9 May 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    No kidding there. Various comments on the articles are already mourning the NSX. The fact that the Karma's battery is reportedly intact sounds like a good sign, and points to a different source or means of ignition (a significant short somewhere else in the car would be my uninformed guess) but nevertheless, justified or not, if the meme starts to attach that plug-in hybrids and/or EVs are wont to spontaneously combust, it's going to make the hill that much harder to climb for these companies...
    9 May 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The battery that caused the explosion in GM's battery testing facility a couple weeks ago was reportedly intact too. So I'm not convinced. If you have a gas build up in a sealed space a spark leads to an explosion. If it builds up in a larger or better ventilated space like a garage you have a fire instead.
    9 May 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I just read a Reuters story that concluded the battery wasn't the cause. "After the fire, the Karma's battery was intact, suggesting it was not a "contributing factor," Fisker said."
    http://reut.rs/L70WKp

     

    That does sound amazingly similar to the stories on the GM explosion that said things like "Chemical gases from the battery cells were released and ignited in the enclosed chamber. The battery itself was intact."
    http://bit.ly/IJZ7p1
    9 May 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how long it's going to be before true definitive determinations are made and released? A lot of eyes will be watching for those I would guess. Not the greatest of things to happen on the eve of tesla's earnings too...
    9 May 2012, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The curious thing is that A123 should also be reporting earnings by tomorrow but I've not seen anything scheduling a conference call. After they announced the warrant recall I speculated that they'd be facing a big inventory write down too. If the speculation is sound, it could play hell with getting their quarterly results out on time. We should know more by tomorrow I guess.

     

    The big one I'm going to be watching is whether Tesla picks up a going concern footnote this quarter.
    9 May 2012, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8761) | Send Message
     
    If anyone is interested this appears to be the date Rosewater and Ontario Sustainable Energy Association visited Axion to see their PowerCube demonstrator.

     

    Sorry if this was already posted.

     

    http://on.fb.me/KkphwQ
    9 May 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • tocoadog
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Had not seen this. Thanks.

     

    Too the moon baby...
    9 May 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Quick links:

     

    Viridity Energy is getting more active on their Facebook page: http://on.fb.me/JektbL

     

    You will find weekly updates on NS's locomotives (among many other topics) here: http://bit.ly/J7v3Sm

     

    I've set a Google Alert (http://bit.ly/Jeks7v) for the phrase "NS locomotive update"

     

    Here's the latest weekly update: http://bit.ly/Jekts6

     

    To be clear though, this doesn't tell you what is happening, it's more what HAS happened. Reviewing several of them, or on a continuing basis might give you a view of "throughput" of locomotive rebuilds though.
    9 May 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    BlackRock 10-K filed this morning : They own 4.8%, over 5 million shares.
    http://bit.ly/LOVhvB
    9 May 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Down to 5.2 MIL from 6.1 MIL at 2011 year end
    9 May 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    sigh ...
    9 May 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I just saw the filing. Since the reduction in their holdings was 910,000 shares this year, as compared to 1,050,000 shares in 2011, it looks like their strategy may be based on selling about a million shares every year rather than exiting completely. Since they're no longer 5% holders, we probably won't see any future filings.
    9 May 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    I know this has probably been addressed, but is there not any way to check what their holdings are quarterly?
    9 May 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Bummer! Once I learned that BlackRock had sold a million shares, I was VERY suspiscious that they were continuing their selling. Don't like seeing this confirmed, but there we have it, another big shot liquidating.

     

    Anyone have an extra ~ $2.7M to buy out BlackRock and Quercus?
    9 May 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    This helps explain some of the stagnation we've seen perhaps? Could they have been the ones to sell into the NS order news? Are we thinking/hoping they're mostly done for the year?
    9 May 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: Yesterday, I tried to locate and post their total holdings, without any luck. Only could see the top ten. Maybe tonight, I'll try to sniff around more.
    9 May 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It was easy with Special Sits because the fund managers filed quarterly Section 13 Holdings Reports that included their Axion shares even though they technically didn't have to because Axion is not an exchange or Nasdaq listed stock.

     

    There are so many BlackRock entities that I've never been able to find their Section 13HR reports. Even if I could find them, they might not include Axion so I basically stopped looking.
    9 May 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    "Anyone have an extra ~ $2.7M to buy out BlackRock and Quercus?"

     

    Maya,
    I looked in my sock drawer, but it's full of socks and Axion shares. Let me check under the cushions of the sofa in the living room when I get home tonight and see how much I can come up with.
    9 May 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Lab: Lot's been going 'round about watching paint dry. Maybe I just found something better to watch, as we wile away the times while the fat cats liquidate..."in super, ultra, slow motion."

     

    This is pretty neat, though:

     

    http://bit.ly/Kb53aK
    9 May 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I think it would be a mistake to read too much into the filing. The only facts we have are that they sold 1,050,000 shares in 2011 and 909,400 shares this year. We have no idea when they sold or if they're continuing to sell. You can draw a line through two data points but it takes at least three points to define a trend.
    9 May 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The report is for the period ended March 31, 2012, about three weeks before the NS announcement.
    9 May 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    With all due respect, John, I think the opposite; two instances establishes a trend. And the trend is toward BlackRock continuing to sell.

     

    It's just another bitter pill to swallow. We now know we have millions more shares that "could" be liquidated. And will most likely be liquidated, fortunately for us, not Special Situations fast.

     

    Every time I think the barrel of shares available at these prices is drying up, this darn barrel keeps filling up, and the time line for my expectations of reaping reward keeps getting extended.

     

    I feel terrible for TG, and the longer holders of Axion like yourself and DRich.
    9 May 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Roger that John, clearly they're not liquidating willy-nilly or anything, just apparently lightening up somewhat for reason(s) of their own. But just for clarity of my own understanding, they still could have sold some on the NS news/volume spike, and we wouldn't really have any visibility into that now, or in the future, via any more reports, right?
    9 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Now that Blackrock is not a 5% holder, there won't be any future visibility.

     

    Given the fact that their 2011 sales represented 15% of their January 1, 2011 position and the number we've for 2012 also represents about 15% of their January 1, 2012 position, it looks like they may be implementing a very gradual selling strategy that's going to be based on a fixed percentage of their holdings every year rather than tracking specific events in the stock.

     

    A funds manager like Blackrock that runs $3.7 trillion in assets won't devote much staff time analyzing and following a $2 million stake in a company like Axion.
    9 May 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Hmm... so then I can't help thinking this, that if they're now done (or nearly done) for the year (2012), then we're due to see the supply dynamic change fairly soon. Basically all they did was pour a couple of litres of fresh water into our mud puddle. It made it wet for a while, yes, but the mud cracking should still commence before too long..
    9 May 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Whoa. 3.7 trillion, with a T? seriously? I had no frappin' idea. My eyes just kind of slid right over that and didn't register. Then our little Axion is not even a gnat to them. more like a mite on a gnat. sheesh. I'll shut up now.
    9 May 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... This ever filling barrel does tend to leave one to wonder if anyone (exclusive of Axionistas) in the market sees any value here. The eternity of testing has been the blessing & bane of this company which I've agonized over. It turned the attention away from chasing cash flow and organic product development to production of a world class product with no cash flow. Which is better? Has Axion lost its market timing window? It looks like we "retailers" are following the technology (my reason for being here in the first place). Like the saying goes "In for a penny, in for a pound". Meanwhile, the "market" money guys don't seem willing to make that bet and will follow the cash flow.
    9 May 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    For top-down funds, sector analysis is the starting point--they get in to what they think is or will be the hot sectors, and get out of or avoid the cold ones.

     

    There's blood all over the place in the green space, and the battery space within that. So, AXPW is swimming upstream, at least to short-term, top-down investors. As an investment theme, though, the green and battery spaces are a secular trend, IMO and in the opinion of a lot of other folks, and therefore it has very long legs. It's just that we're going thru a round of culling at the moment. At some point, the space will heat up again, I firmly believe.

     

    Axion's also in the micro-cap sector. I don't track it generally, but with big macro worries, we're definitely not in the wild days like the 80's, and late '90's. Here's to hoping that changes in a year or two.

     

    For the bottom-up investors, Axion still looks great, I would think.
    9 May 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Agree with the sector culling, and let's note that Blackrock began selling last year, when Axion's case was far more speculative. The decision was made and the trigger pulled, which does not reflect the improved capital base, progress with testing, new battery orders, new demo projects, etc. all in the last two quarters.
    9 May 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Bad news about Blackrock.
    With another potential financing coming along shortly, we will once more be in a position where the financing will be at a discount to the (already awful) market value.
    At least with Blackrock being all in at .57c, I for one, was quite happy that they were holding on to the stock for the long haul.
    Them selling at .42c rings alarm bells for me, and I don't like that sound !
    9 May 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Johhny

     

    I agree with you that now we have another large shareholder getting out. It makes this beginner think two thoughts

     

    1) They think the stock is a dog

     

    2) They do not want to be around when the next dilution comes around.

     

    So can someone explain to me another reason why Blackrock would be selling??

     

    Thanks
    Map
    9 May 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    MAP > "So can someone explain to me another reason why Blackrock would be selling??"

     

    As J.P. has noted, we have information that Blackrock sold some shares in '12Q1. We do not have hard info that Blackrock is selling now, only speculation that it is doing so.

     

    As for a reason Blackrock could be selling, it could have been faced with funding commitments made to other investments (just like Quercus). Or, it could have sold some shares to meet redemption requests from its own investors after the first of the year when AXPW was climbing to $0.60/sh.

     

    I might also note that I read a report recently that claimed one of the investors in the February direct placement was a Blackrock sub.
    9 May 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    Thanks for the reply but i am still concerned that they picked this particular stock to sell. But appreciate you take on it. Still learning!!

     

    MAP
    9 May 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Sometime in 2011 Blackrock sold 1,050,000 shares, which represented ~15% of their holdings at 12-31-10.

     

    Sometime in the first quarter of 2012, Blackrock sold 909,400 shares, which represented ~15% of its holdings at 12-31-11.

     

    Given the ratio between the starting balance and the number of shares sold I'd tend to view ~15% per year as a likely selling scenario.
    9 May 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Johhny r > "With another potential financing coming along shortly, we will once more be in a position where the financing will be at a discount to the (already awful) market value."

     

    That statement strikes me as highly speculative on multiple fronts. Part of that perception is undoubtedly attributable to my interpretation of the term "shortly". And, I see no prospect of another financing "at a discount to the (already awful) market value" unless TG's guidance regarding 300% revenue growth was seriously amiss for some reason.
    9 May 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The idea that the manager of a $3.7 trillion dollar fund made an affirmative decision to sell a small portion of its Axion stake at a particular time is silliest thought I've ever read. Funds that size work on autopilot and if they make an affirmative decision to sell something they sell it all.

     

    Axion's an important holding to me. It's not even lunch money to the managers at Blackrock.
    9 May 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Would be nice if Blackrock was taking such a "Quercus lite" approach.

     

    But with the continued, consistent selling since 3/31/2012, I view Blackrock's selling in Q4 2011, Q1 2012 and each quarter thereafter as likely, too.

     

    The even bigger picture is that we could use even more BUYING. Good sponsorship would help a lot, in addition to JP.
    9 May 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall--did Blackrock buy private placement shares, and therefore their sales be at least somewhat trackable by HTL's short interest reports?
    9 May 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    We have no idea when Blackrock sold in 2011. The only two data points we have are December 31, 2010 (http://1.usa.gov/yxCVjO) and December 31, 2012 (http://1.usa.gov/yZpUiZ) The only conclusion we can draw is that they sold sometime during the calendar year.

     

    For 2012, we know some sales occurred in the first quarter, but nothing more.

     

    SEC filings are wonderful things, but it's critically important to not read more into them than they disclose.
    9 May 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Investors are forced to deal with incomplete info almost all the time.

     

    I proposed another speculative theory. That's all.
    9 May 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I hope I'm not being naive and optimistic, but it makes sense that Blackrock is simply cleaning house and writing off Axion without much thought, as they have suffered losses and the battery sector as a whole is out of favor. Not, that they have thoroughly analyzed the company's future.

     

    That said, I hope Axion demonstrates that revenue growth TG expects, or else we'll not get these kind of players back in.
    9 May 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    With Blackrock selling in the 4th quarter 2011 and first qtr. '12, I think until proven otherwise that they are in the process of liquidating their stake in AXPW just like Quercus and SS did.

     

    They know they can't dump 5-7 million shares all at once, so they are limiting sales to what the mkt. can absorb in this price range.

     

    I agree with JP that for a fund that size the move makes no sense.
    9 May 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    there is no valid reason to sugar coat their move as positive or that there will be no other sales, they are significantly reducing or liquidating their position entirely for whatever reason.
    9 May 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    This is pure speculation, but...

     

    For a large fund this sort of move may represent a macro decision to rotate out of this sector (much more likely than a devious plan involving little Axion). The recent failure of altenergy beneficiaries of earlier government funding, and the prospects for a different environment in the future for the same group, could have something to do with this.

     

    Axion's support from government has been relatively minor, but sometimes its the category which counts more than the details (particularly when trying to read motive into the actions of an unbelievably huge whale).

     

    Axion in that case would be the baby getting tossed with the bath water, imo.
    9 May 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    That's one of the things that concerned me: the placement from early Feb had an effect immediately the daily short sales. The percentages are very low from February on. This suggest that the flippers are much more prevalent than we might have first surmised.

     

    Jan 43.88%
    Feb 25.67%
    Mar 23.26%
    Apr. 16.03%

     

    If daily short sales do indeed represent only (or predominately) certificate conversion delays, these numbers might be useful.

     

    Here's the number of shorts for each month through April.

     

    Jan 5,093,266
    Feb 2,520,026
    Mar 949,567
    Apr 1,361,414
    May 83,390 (through 5/8).

     

    Totaling Feb-May to-date gives 4,914,397.

     

    Depressing when I accidentally included Jan in this before I caught that and corrected it.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I don't see it as depressing at all HT. Last year the selling was coming from 2009 purchasers who had to keep their shares in paper form until they sold them. Those sales always resulted in a delayed delivery while the shares were being converted to electronic form.

     

    Since February, the selling has shifted from the 2009 purchasers who are basically out of stock to that portion of the 2011 buyers who are willing to take a 20% up and out flip.

     

    I've been doing this for thirty some years and tell my clients that they can typically expect 20% to 30% of the new shares to flow back into the market in the short term.

     

    Our volume since February when the 2009 purchasers have not been selling is already in that 20% to 30% range so I have to believe the end of the flipping is near. If you know more about the buyers than I do you may have a basis for a more pessimistic view.
    9 May 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    You're never going to have any proof one way or the other. Now that Blackrock is not a 5% holder it has no duty to report anything.

     

    Stating things as fact that you do not and cannot know to be fact merely makes a morsel of unpleasant news more unpleasant, unless of course you have some magic inside line to information denied the rest of us.
    9 May 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    You do not and cannot know that. This is your fear talking. Not your head.
    9 May 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock manages $3.7 trillion in total. For all I know as of now, the entity that directly owns AXPW might only have a $100 million portfolio of 100 micro-cap stocks, any of which is not vital but is important to that entity and to the managers of it. It is common for fund managers to sell down but not out. They rebalance, reallocate, and reposition, as well as fully liquidate, like everyone else.
    9 May 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    John, BlackRock "has" sold 30% of their stake, that is a significant reduction and it is now a known fact....and not my fear. I have not and will not sell a share for the time being and probably not in the near term or in 2013 either unless something causes a large increase in price/share.
    9 May 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    John and HTL, would be really useful to see an update to JP's 1/12/2012 article, "An Elephant Hunter's Theory..." re: the 2008 and 2009 private placement shares remaining. If you take that article's approximately 20.9 million shares remaining, and subtract HTL's 10.0 million shares sold 1/1/12 thru 5/8/12, you're left with 10.9 million shares remaining (not sure how many of the 1/1/12 - 1/12/12 shares there were--those should be added back in if they were included in JP's article's 20.9 million).

     

    10.9 mil remaining minus Quercus' 1.6 mil (I think) = 9.3 mil to be explained. Assuming Manatuck Hill still has their full 7.2 mil, the remainder to explain is 2.1 mil, which would be the total left of Blackrock and the "Strong 2009 small investors" combined. Another way to look at it is 10.9 minus 7.2 = 3.7 mil shares left to be sold by a combo of Blackrock and Quercus, and perhaps the Strong 2009 small investors. 3.7 minus 1.6 = 2.1, which would be Blackrock plus the Strong 2009 small investors (subject to 1/1/12 -1/12/12 adjustment), which means Blackrock may have kept selling into this Q2, as they had 5.2 mil at 3/31/2012.

     

    So if the 35 cent placement flippers have between 0 and 2.5 mil shares left to sell per JP's guesstimate, and the 2008 and 2009 private placement investors have perhaps 1.6 mil to 3.7 mil left to sell, we might really, REALLY be getting close to the end of the seemingly endless supply, after all (ok Man. Hill, man up!).

     

    Refinements to the numbers are most welcome, thanks, as would be some perspective--timeline to exhaustion, etc.
    9 May 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I'm fascinated by the tempo of Blackrock sales...

     

    Its been suggested that perhaps they are seeking to sell appx. 15% of their total per year, based upon the fact that they did this in 2011, and have now done the same in 2012...

     

    This COULD well be true, and should not be discounted, but I then compare the fact that their yearly sales in 2011 were the same as their Q1 sales in 2012. This hints to me that they could well be planning to repeat that performance every quarter this year.

     

    This is all pure speculation, of course.

     

    To be conservative in estimating the likely pool of large sellers, it seems to me that Blackrock must now be grouped with Quercus, with their sales pressure overlapping.

     

    Under this scenario, one would assume that Blackrock has continued steadily selling since the time period of the 10K. This yields an average daily sale rate of about 15,400 shares per trading day. They have sufficient shares to sustain this sort of theoretical pace through Q1 2013. This is also roughly comparable to the behavior of Quercus.

     

    Adding in the assumption that the 20-30% of the recent offering comprised of flippers may have sold off most of their shares...

     

    We are back examining the impact of Quercus and Blackrock.

     

    AXPW has about 259,000 avg volume per day now, or 129,500 sales per day. Quercus has been religiouisly selling 10% or about 13,000, and if we add in the 15,000 for Blackrock, we have a total of 28,000 shares per day (almost precisely 10% of volume, or 20% of sales.

     

    Of course, if John is correct (and I hope he is) in gauging that Blackrock is engaged in a 15% yearly rate of sale (vs a million share quarterly rate), the numbers look better.
    9 May 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Well heres my 2 cents...ANY company selling a stock does it to lock in profits, or to get out of what they perceive as a loser. IMHO we have seen way more flippers than expected, we now have another major player selling and i really don't accept any other spin on it.

     

    It might not be lunch money to them but the bottom line for any investment firm is a return on investment. Now if i am wrong and anyone can give a reason why a large investor would start selling a stock they deem will have value i am all ears !!

     

    But lets be honest, this isn't good news. Kinda like kicking the can down the road. I might add these major player have way more info than we could ever imagine having, So i am not a happy camper right now.

     

    Selling periodically helps keep the price floating, so that makes the most sense. But selling right now is a red light imho.
    9 May 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I could be way off, but at a quick glance, the amount of private placement shares sold since 2/1/12 as a % of total shares sold means that the flipper shares remaining may be 2-3 million at the 20% low end. Need help from someone who has more time and another set of eyes on that one. See JP's article from yesterday, entitled, "When Will Axion See The End Of The Flipping?" for the assumptions used in his calculations for help with a model, as well as estimated private placement shares sold as noted by HTL above.
    9 May 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    HTL, what's striking there is the screeching halt that seems to be taking place here in May...
    9 May 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    To me it's my wallet talking. For all i see that when we expect a pop from news the stock actually loses money. I might be new but that ain't good news. I am a college sports official and i will put it in my terms.

     

    A player sees what he wants to see, an official sees what actually occurs. I added this because if i was holding as many shares as most of you i would be hoping for the best answer. Sorry to add but i really don't see it coming.

     

    What i do see coming is another dilution, more flipping, and a share price that might be lower!!

     

    It seems as soon as we get a pop it disappears quickly, so we have way too many shares waiting to sell.....whomever does not matter , they are willing to sell!!
    9 May 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but something doesn't add up here.

     

    *If* most flippers and their ilk (Blackrock, Quercus, ...) are near exhausted, the implication is that someone else is selling. Who's left? Small retailers?

     

    From the price action, volume and near-constant stepping down of the highs and lows, that seems unlikely.

     

    If retailers were getting out I would think we'd see a "flush" and then an end to it. Instead we have a pecking that *appears* well managed.

     

    The only thing I think is assured with the low daily short sales is that either the market-makers have shares in hand or there's a lot more inter and intra-broker trades going off, bypassing the market-makers.

     

    I guess (emphasis on "guess") that the owning brokers have the shares in house and a simple bookkeeping entry puts the shares into the market-maker portfolios? If the new share issuance was immediately converted and placed in broker hands, we could see this behavior without corresponding daily short sales I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    48 -- May has been only half the rate of April. So far, May's private placement sales represent 18.6% of total average daily sales (6 days), vs 35.6% in April (20 days).

     

    I'm hoping to get help calc'g the private placement and flipper shares left. Looks like a lot of the data is already there to re-estimate the remaining big supply. Pretty cool.
    9 May 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    MAP > "What i do see coming is another dilution, more flipping, and a share price that might be lower!!"

     

    Then one wonders why you linger.
    9 May 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Your view is right most of the time. You may be right about Blackrock. Axion has had large sellers with different reasons.
    Quercus. They needed to free up money from their stronger investments to shore up their weaker investments.
    Special Sits. A new manager had a different investment philosophy and wanted to get rid of Axion shares.
    9 May 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Curious...What makes you think Blackrock and those who bought at the private placement are done selling?? How does anyone know what percent are flippers??? Unless it's just an educated guess.

     

    My fear is those who can make a quick 20% gain will continue to make it !!! No one has given me a valid reason why they shouldn't.

     

    Trying to understand but if they know Blackrock is getting out why would they stop flipping ??

     

    map
    9 May 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    If one assumes "short sales" of AXPW are time delay reflecting document conversion from "restricted" to "registered" shares, then the short sales data by month shows sales of shares issued in 2009 and earlier. Shares issued in the February direct placement were registered shares and would not be reflected in short sales as the shares issued were never stamped "restricted".

     

    Unless Blackrock could exchange "restricted" shares for "registered" shares directly with Axion/ Axion's transfer agent without actually selling the shares, it seems to me the monthly short sales volumes compiled by HTL only show enough volume to include both Quercus and Blackrock in Jan. and possibly February.

     

    I haven't really kept track of Quercus's reporting this year, but 5.1 mil. shares in Jan. strikes me as much higher volume than I thought they were disposing of.
    9 May 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    When an investor buys restricted shares they remain restricted until they're sold. There is no way to exchange restricted shares for unrestricted shares.
    9 May 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I understand that your rich experience as a college sports official is more relevant to the stock market than my 33 years of experience as securities counsel to small companies like Axion. I apologize for ever doubting your wisdom. After all, I can only speak from the perspective of a guy who writes offering documents and SEC reports in his sleep and has always had a perverse interest in how individual and institutional investors act.
    10 May 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    jveal:
    I do not care for anything they sell. I worry that no other major buyer and take those shares.
    Have a nice day.
    10 May 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    MAP: "What makes you think Blackrock and those who bought at the private placement are done selling??"

     

    You misunderstood?

     

    "From the price action, volume and near-constant stepping down of the highs and lows, that seems unlikely".

     

    That referred to "*If* most flippers and their ilk (Blackrock, Quercus, ...) are near exhausted, the implication is that someone else is selling. Who's left? Small retailers?".

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Thanks for the correction, appreciate it..

     

    map
    10 May 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I have a hard time accepting the 15% a year scenario since it could just as easily been 4th quarter 2011 and 1st quarter 2012. Two data points are only two data points. Choosing to assign years to the data points that could just have easily been quarters is a strange logic to me. As you pointed out NS had not been announced yet, but a million shares went on the block from somewhere the day of the press release.

     

    Another possibility is that they sold when the stock was near or over .57 cents which occurred in both 2011 and 2012. Regrettably I think once they started selling it was with the ultimate intention to move on to new investments.

     

    I think the 2009 capital investors may have felt that 26M should have provided a long enough runway for Axion to achieve some sales. At the time of the capital raise you remarked "now it's all up to the battery." Axion didn't get any significant sales traction in 2011, but I grant you that the new order from NS was one of the fruits of the 2011 effort. I'm not as concerned about the ramp rate this year, but I would really like to know where $128M in sales is going to come from in 2013?

     

    I'm all in, well underwater and disinclined to take a loss. However, holding this stock reminds me of water boarding or a WWII death march.
    10 May 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    The most likely scenario regarding Balckrock is that they began selling when the going concern footnote came out in Nov. last year. Funds have rules about holding equities with going concern footnotes. BR plus SS would go a long way in explaining the crash in stock price between Nov. 15th and the end of the year. BR would have continued their selling through Jan. at the minimum until the financing went through. That would explain the sale of 950k more in the first quarter of this year and the high volume during the climb of Jan.

     

    It is pretty straight forward though. We have "our suppliers" at .42c. Quercus has been done since April 27th, if Blackrock is done and the flippers are nearly done it should be very evident, very soon by a dramatic shift in supply at these prices.
    11 May 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    An alternate POV, BW, might be watching a field of beautiful flowers starting to bloom.

     

    ATM they are almost all buds. The early signs of the first bloom have appeared.

     

    The excitement of knowing what that field is going to look like shortly down the road outweighs the the frustration of "When will the bllom" by orders of magnitude.

     

    The similarities are strong: both have lots of "risks" associated with the activity and both have the potential to provide a beautiful, and even breathtaking, result.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 May 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I have a hefty buy order in at 0.39x.
    I would be tickled if someone dumped some significant shares.
    9 May 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Right there with you...
    9 May 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't hold my breath.
    9 May 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    yea, it's left over GTC after kicking myself for missing it in March...
    9 May 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    A while back we were wondering "who" the big seller was besides Quercus....now we know where a million shares came from.

     

    Grant you, I don't like BlackRock selling, but it still doesn't change my positive view of Axion. It does confirm that "time to market" does make a difference. Even funds as well as individuals get tired of waiting for a return. AXPW desperately needs to make more deals like NS sooner rather than later.
    9 May 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    The second you start doing deals to solely benefit the price of the stock is the second you lose focus on your business. It's going to take time - but the story is there. We need to see revenue continue to ramp and relationships built - the rest will take care of itself.

     

    I've actually stopped paying attention to the stock price. In 3 years I fully believe I'll be laughing at the fact we were analyzing the hell out of 3 penny movements in the stock.
    9 May 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    QUICK SEC FORM LESSON

     

    A Schedule 13G like the one Blackrock filed today is due 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter in which a change of ownership occurs. A filing is only required if the holder owns less than 5% of the outstanding stock at the end of the quarter.

     

    The only facts that we can ascertain from the filing are that sometime between January 1 and March 31, Blackrock sold 909,400 shares.

     

    If the February placement had not added 27 million shares to the count, Blackrock would have been a 5% holder at the end of Q1 and there would have been no filing.
    9 May 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    New Battery System Could Reduce Buildings' Electric Bills
    ScienceDaily (May 8, 2012) — The CUNY Energy Institute, which has been developing innovative low-cost batteries that are safe, non-toxic, and reliable with fast discharge rates and high energy densities, announced that it has built an operating prototype zinc anode battery system. The Institute said large-scale commercialization of the battery would start later this year.

     

    http://bit.ly/LelMrA

     

    Here is a little more. It is an interesting article.

     

    The batteries are designed for more than 5,000 -- 10,000 charge cycles and a useful life exceeding ten years. The demonstration system is being expanded currently to 100 kWh, with another 200 kWh to be installed later this year. At that point, it will be capable of meeting more than 30 percent of Steinman Hall's peak-demand power needs, yielding savings of $6,000 or more per month.
    9 May 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link! I'm struck by how optimistic they are about rapid commercialization. Frankly I hope they are right but I expect it will take longer than they think.
    9 May 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Optimism and naivety are what drives technology. Axion has been working feverishly for 9 years. If a large company owned it, it may have been faster, but probably would have cost more to develop. As it is now, the readiness for "rapid commercialization" of PbC coincides with the the alternative energy focus on storage.
    9 May 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I'd say if a large company owned it, the development would be slower, if at all.
    9 May 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    two things, the zinc battery still costs $300-500/kw hr. So that is in the ball park of other tech, not as cheap as they portray .

     

    Second, How can just buying/recharging at lesser rates at night save $6000/month ? If it is that much, they need to see me. Maybe I am off, but that seems really high, and it still takes 3-5 years to recoup your investment and that is probably on the low side.
    10 May 2012, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but it would employ more people and cost more as the necessary paperwork, meetings, presentations, milepost reports, ... had to get done to get anything started.

     

    Then as the program progresses, the clerical and other overheads abate only minimally.

     

    Need to keep the "big picture" in mind. That means we don't want it to be GE because the head of the POTUS's job creation council, Jeff Immelt, is the head of GE that would immediately ship those jobs, and the R&D functions and the manufacturing to China.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I have to love battery researchers who have a Eureka! moment and believe they can have an operating company this fall and a break even product within two years. The truth is closer to seven to ten years of industrial engineering and testing if they're lucky and everything proceeds smoothly and quickly.
    10 May 2012, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    Yo John, They want to start a battery company; possibly some business for you and your law firm.
    10 May 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Eight and a half years ago I got involved with an R&D stage battery company that expected to have a product within a couple years followed by a rapid growth curve. That particular company had one of the best high-tech manufacturing executives in the world on its board and a world-class team of scientists.

     

    After having the optimism bludgeoned out of me over the last eight years, the last thing I need is a new client who doesn't begin to understand the difficulties and complexities.
    10 May 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Well, MM PERT finally gave up on the 6,380 bid @ $0.41 that was there all morning. Now 7,141 @ $0.415.

     

    I suspect their odd bid size kept the MMs from filling them - lot's of volume went off at $0.41.

     

    This one might have better luck at the better bid in spite of the odd size.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Axion Axion, go away
    Won't your shares look cheap another day?

     

    Axion Axion, go away
    I'm overweight and can rationalize a buy another day

     

    Axion Axion, go away,
    I must resist temptation, oh what the heck, just a few more shares, okay?
    9 May 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): http://1.usa.gov/IDjUqL

     

    Net loss $(89,873)
    Net loss per common share, basic and diluted (2) $(0.86 )

     

    They missed big, apparently - analysts (11) was $(0.69) per share.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Using typical practice, I guess, the miss is seen as $0.07 - got loss of $(0.76)/share,, apparently accounting for all the usual exceptions. Missed on revenues.

     

    AH up $2.45 from close of $29.76 to $32.21 - due to promising earlier Model S deliveries?
    9 May 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    And went up $2.44 after hours.

     

    Working capital is now $142 million and equity is $154 million.

     

    Gotta love those companies that trade at 22 times book.
    9 May 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I tried but as yet couldn't get the full document for TSLA... any sign of a going concern statement? if not, I wonder how they slipped that noose... but if not this time, then barring a flawlessly stupendously outperforming and successful model S launch, surely the next...
    9 May 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Might as well get all the bad news out of the way today and get it over with....
    We now know another reason that TG had to do such a discounted funding issue. We may not have known that Blackrock was selling but the word leaks out. (it had been stated many times that we listed them as a solid shareholder & investor) Therefore, with Quercus, Special Sits. & BlackRock all 3 selling we can see the effect it had on the share price and also willing financiers.
    I would also highly suspect that BlackRock was who sold heavily into the NS news. That really had piqued my curiosity on who would sell 2 million shares on such good news that validated the technology. But, that's how big firms work....sell into news while the liquidity & volume is there to cover it. If we have volume to cover it, I expect both Quercus and BlackRock to be completely out of the stock by year end.
    AXPW still looks better today vs. 9 months to a year ago to me. So do your own DD.
    9 May 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't worry that much about Blackrock. So what if they sell stock? If Axion executes its 300% growth YOY outlook the shares will eventually be absorbed and they clearly are not selling like Special Situations did at any price. I'm willing to let the price wallow until good news out of Axion either creates enough volume to clear out the sellers or the stock begins to rise in spite of the sellers. Mayascribe said it best - he added another year to 18 months if I recall correctly to his expectations.

     

    However, I have no idea where 300% year over year growth will come from and I'll just have to see it to believe it. In the meantime I am willing to wait and see.
    9 May 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I think you nailed it: "I wouldn't worry that much about BlackRock." They have big guns for sure -- but sometimes the more agile sling shot takes down a bigger hunt in the end!

     

    I can recount many a time when I thought BlackRock action was worth imitating e.g. bought TBI last year and booked a loss; watched Larry Fink get trotted around the cameras with the message to be all in with equities before sizeable corrections; achieved better returns investing in Australian miners direct than in BlackRock's GMI fund which has traded at a share price discount to net tangible assets and is now getting delisted; etc. etc.

     

    BlackRock has to respond monthly to clients wanting to know "what have you done for me lately" -- we as retail investors can operate on our own individual timelines. So I stay focused on the fundamentals of AXPW while watching the price action carefully in light of my own individual investment goals and risk tolerance. But, following in BlackRock's footsteps is often not a winning strategy for the retail investor IMHO. I certainly take note of their actions as one of many many variables to weigh -- but refuse to make too much of their actions -- either positively or negatively.

     

    mj
    10 May 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mercy. I think most of the ballgame is riding on the NS field testing and the rail market. The grid is slow as molasses. The auto market is in no hurry to buy PbC's - they will proceed on a "business as usual basis" as long as they can. Rail is the perfect application for the PbC's attributes. I'm praying it goes well because until I hear different it is the only game in town for the PbC.
    10 May 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I can assure you that the boys at Rosewater will disagree vehemently with that conclusion Bang. It would be ill-advised to disregard the short-term potential of the PowerCube in behind-the-meter commercial and residential applications, island installations and in the oil field.
    10 May 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    When Rosewater's and the PowerCube's actual sales demonstrate more volume potential than the rail market in terms of total sales I'll buy that. In the meantime I won't change my opinion. So far Rosewater hasn't sold a thing I am aware of and Axion sold one mini-Powercube with 36 batteries for the Zero Energy Navy building. In contrast, NS just bought 1080 PbC's and plan to buy almost twice as many later this year for the OTR locomotive.
    10 May 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    I am having a hard time believing that you can't extrapolate a zillion homes and commercial factories into a market that is worth more than 1080 batteries.

     

    I do know what your saying. NS has bought a thosand batteries. They have agreed to by more for the OTR loco. They will buy a ton of batteries in the next 5 years.

     

    Whereas RoseWater has not sold anything. The market is a few billion large but so far nothing. Even though the principals have done it before and even though the principals have staked the last couple of years on their segment of the PbC purchasers, they have done nothing.

     

    I get your point. But if I were a betting man ( and I am) I am betting that the small market segment of the HUGE picture RoseWater is after will pay geater dividends than NS in the long haul.

     

    But granted NS is today. RoseWater is the next big thing TG can't talk about.
    10 May 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I'm only saying "show me the money" then I'll believe it. I'm not limiting the NS field test to NS purchases. I think they matter to the whole rail market. If they succeed and the entire rail industry starts building PbC locomotives that would be damn significant. It would support Axion until grid, automotive and other markets mature.
    10 May 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    John,
    To change the subject for a moment, I wanted to let you know that I've been running one of your favorite battery experiments the last few weeks. Question: Are lithium ion batteries better today than they were a few years ago or are most of the advances seen in battery life really the result of better electronics?
    Experiment: I bought a new cell phone 3 months ago. My new phone, with new Li-ion battery, had tremendous battery life. I was only having to charge the thing once a week at most. Then our lab moved into an older research building that is made of cinder block walls covered in stone. So you ask...how did this affect my battery life?
    Results: My phone now needs to be charged every other day because the battery gets drained as the phone is continually searching for a signal from a cell phone tower.
    Conclusion: While the Li-ion batteries might be improving a little, most of the longer battery life was caused by the phone's BMS and the fact that cell phone towers in the area have increased over the years. When that signal was interrupted, the phone craps out faster than a Karma can go up in smoke!
    9 May 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8761) | Send Message
     
    Yeah labtech. The communications portion of a cell phone is a real battery drain. That is why some of the apps such as GPS really drain batteries hard. The reason is because the power saving functions in the phone can't power down the analog circuits required for the wireless so it just keeps using closer to peak energy.
    10 May 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz

     

    That is my frustration in a nutshell, in that I most certainly believe that TG will deliver 300% YOY, and more orders from NS etc, without a doubt.

     

    The fact is as JP has commented on previously, that nobody except this tiny circle of dedicated investors even know or care what's going on at Axion.

     

    Any other microcap quoting a 300% YOY growth from their CEO, and the stock would have easily doubled, even without the NS order.

     

    We seem to be doomed to stay at 40c for eternity, and yes, another 18m for me after 10yrs, is eternity, if I can't afford to hold on to the shares, but desperately want to do so.

     

    I honestly don't think anything under a $50million actual order will get us back to the $3 range ( most long term investors are averaged at $1.30-$3.00), therefore I worry about the next, and possibly most significantly important necessary financing, and just hope that we don't get burned yet again, adding more months and years to the point where we are truly recognised and trading strongly on a big board.

     

    Blackrock et al, can afford to sell at a loss, they make so many billions a year, when they get fed up with a stocks performance they let it go, I wish I was as smart as they are, but alas have put myself in this Axion pickle.

     

    I still have to believe that 2012/13 is the time, if it goes beyond that for whatever reason the ship will have sailed to another port.

     

    Here's banking on TG to finally deliver !
    9 May 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It all boils down to numbers. If you look back to 2009, Axion traded 7.2 million shares for the year and was basically unknown. Things got a little better in 2010 when total volume for the year was 22 million shares. Things improved again in 2011 when total volume was 77.7 million shares. While the growth rate has slowed in 2012, volume to date has been 33.7 million shares, which leaves me believing total volume will exceed 100 shares million in 2012 without any market-shaking events.

     

    Axion is still a relatively unknown company and as you noted there is a relatively small group of individual investors who even know it exists. That group, which probably numbers in the small thousands, has done substantially all the buying over the past three years because nobody else knows Axion exists. The net effect has been to take massive quantities of stock out of the *float* and put them into sock drawers where they won't see the light of day until the investment goals of the Axionistas are satisfied.

     

    To support last year's trading volume, the buyers absorbed 24.5 million shares from sellers we can identify (Quercus, Special Sits, the Winner Estate and a little from Blackrock). Unless you're willing to assume that none of the other 2009 purchasers sold last year, you have to conclude that the number of shares that moved out of weak hands last year is closer to 30 million.

     

    Moving into 2012, a higher volume of trading will require a higher volume of selling from somewhere. Quercus had about 3 million shares at the beginning of the year. Based on experience I'd expect 20% to 30% of the new February shares to flow back into the market for a modest *flipper's profit,* which might add 7.5 million shares to the supply side. We know that Blackrock sold a million shares in Q1. When I add up all those numbers I get to about 12 million shares of identifiable supply for a market that's on pace to absorb over 40 million shares of selling. Even if you add the rest of Blackrock's holdings to the equation you only get to 17 million shares of identifiable supply.

     

    The point of all this is that sustained buying eventually overwhelms sustained selling because the sellers run out of stock. Barring a catastrophe that forces the old guard or the Axionistas to bail out, there is no way to avoid a supply and demand inflection over the next few months. It may not happen next week, but it has to happen before the end of September.
    10 May 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Johnny Rambo chose to include the following positive and constructive words in his post:
    "frustration
    nobody...... even know or care
    We seem to be doomed
    I can't afford
    desperately

     

    I honestly don't think
    I worry
    they get fed up
    have put myself in this Axion pickle."

     

    "I wish I was as smart as they are....." (I won't comment on this last phrase as you seem to have trolled yourself, but will only say that you should have used the subjunctive. Apologize for making you research the subjunctive.)
    10 May 2012, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    The January 27, 2011 Urban Word of the Day was 'Concern Troll':

     

    "A person who posts on a blog thread, in the guise of "concern," to disrupt dialogue or undermine morale by pointing out that posters and/or the site may be getting themselves in trouble, usually with an authority or power. They point out problems that don't really exist. The intent is to derail, stifle, control, the dialogue. It is viewed as insincere and condescending."

     

    D.
    10 May 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    D.McHattie

     

    Good quote.
    The trolls appear to be growing in frequency and number.
    I continue to be curious of other/added hidden agenda. (more specifics beyond your quote...e.g., investors, competitors etc.)
    John, Rick et al counter comment wisely, learnedly and with patience.
    Some mistakingly continue to feed the trolls, but after 1 or 2 posts, it's a waste of valuable time.
    10 May 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The fun part of concern trolls is they have to ask intelligent albeit slanted questions to avoid being too obvious. They invariably provide a great teaching opportunity for the first few rounds. It's really hard to avoid the temptation to knock the ball out of the park when somebody comes in pitching low and slow.
    10 May 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JOHHNY

     

    I agree with your assessment, so i hope for your sake TG comes through. I will be sailing to a new port soon as i won't wait that long and not being underwater it is time to move on when the time is right.

     

    Good luck to you !!
    10 May 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    The majority of people on this site have taken the time to study the science behind the PbC battery ... Are there day to day negatives involved with this industry and Axion in general? The answer is yes ... however, they have been studied intensely by most people who post here. And while I may point out negatives, I do not dwell on them because I believe they are going to be overcome ... likewise, I don't post everyday that NS recently closed a deal.

     

    You have made your point ... now why don't you run along?
    10 May 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Honda mileage suit overturned by judge: (thanks to our poor court system)
    http://yhoo.it/JyucuJ
    10 May 2012, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    I do'nt know if you really meant that dig you made or if you were trying to be funny.. If you were serious I would respectfully disagree with you.
    A higher court ruled that a lower court made a mistake in applying the law. Federal regulations ,in this case, trump State laws. That sounds like a court system that is working, not broken. If one does not like the result, that is one thing. One can complain about the legislation. Digging at the court system for doing its job correctly is not really a fair appraisal of the system.
    10 May 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I guess that you think advertise 50 mpg and deliver 30 mpg is a fair system?
    10 May 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Is that what's known as a "rhetorical question"?

     

    Court behavior and "fairness" are not correlated. AFAICT, hasn't been for a long time.

     

    Two different topics.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    The court system didn't write the rules, regulations,and laws about mpg. They simply apply the law. If the rules say Honda doesn't owe her anything then the court got it right in the end.
    Like instant replay. If the refs get it right then you can't blame them for basketball being a fast game.
    10 May 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure it's that simple Futurist. In the initial suit, it was just this lady vs. a representative from Honda (not a lawyer). In the appeal, Honda pulled out their multi-million dollar legal team.

     

    When legal representation is so extremely asymmetrical, I have a hard time believing that the court MUST have gotten it right in the end. I find it as plausible, if not more likely that the Honda lawyers simply found more technicalities and legal loopholes in mountains of documents and laws than this lady's lawyer could possibly look through in a lifetime. The court might have gotten it right, but if so, that's more luck than a sign of a good system!
    14 May 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    The question is not whether the court got it right in this case. The question was whether or not the court system is a poor but broken system.
    "((thanks to our poor court system)"

     

    I was pointing out that the result is not indicative of the system being broken. The system could be fine and the result not liked due to poor regulations, bad legislation, or other systematic failures outside of the American Court system.

     

    You point out that legal representation could be lopsided therefore a poor system. That might be a flaw in the system. I do not know of a court system where everyone has equal legal representation. I would not characterize the American system as "poor" simply because it has the same flaw as every other court system.

     

    Just my point of view. I appreciate the discussion.

     

    BTW: The lady suing Honda in this case was a lawyer. Thus she had the advantage at trial over the Honda non-lawyer.
    15 May 2012, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Here is a true "green" car:
    http://yhoo.it/JisNHx
    10 May 2012, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    The video was outstanding (-ly funny).

     

    Thanks for that LT.
    10 May 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: LoL! I don't know how you found it, but great job!

     

    What a great video! Started my day right.

     

    However, we must now consider the effects of mass adoption of such advanced technology.

     

    Although everyone considers people-powered vehicles the ultimate "green" technology, they fail to consider that the additional calories needed by the "engine" will require vast increases in food consumption.

     

    Since no new (arable) land is being created, we can envision massive increases in the already-present shortages.

     

    After maximum food production has been achieved by all traditional means, the only way out seems, a la Ben Bernanke, "unconventional means".

     

    So the strategy for those with a long time-horizon would suggest an investment in "Soylent Green".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    For the benefit of our younger Axionistas who won't necessarily flash on film references from the '60s I offer a snippet from Soylent Green.

     

    http://bit.ly/Jhu8xO
    10 May 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Although I've always remembered the words Soylent Green since I saw the movie many many years ago, I think a snippet is probably more than enough for the younger Axionistas, as I suspect it hasn't aged so well. Although it appears from the snippet that Charlton Heston was robbed of an academy award.
    10 May 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I saw the movie for the first time when I was like 13 years old, and I remember I bawled like a baby over Edward G. Robinson's fate and the last sad, joyful minutes of his life. The whole thing left a profound impression on me, for many years...
    10 May 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Here is something else for you to have a good cry over

     

    http://onion.com/K0g60G
    10 May 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    I highly appreciate the link D, but the party foul is noted. ;) I mean I thought this was a safe place. 'sniffle.

     

    ps: the post WW2 period in the world's premier military and economic superpower was an especially fertile time for domestic prosperity. An incredibly tough, tested, and industrious population, with strong individual fiber and durable social fabric--characteristics not yet degraded by the decades of corrosive great society folly to come---this was a special time under special conditions, not the norm, and also featured the US having virtually no credible competitors. It was good while it lasted until leftists got too much of their mitts on it, while at the same time, the rest of the world caught up.
    10 May 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    D, did I just find one of your old college photos? ;)

     

    http://onion.com/INMucM
    10 May 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Well, that's not me but I think I met his cousin back in the 60's.
    10 May 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    DRich> That's damn sickening to me. Sounds like we are on our way to a banana republic economy.
    10 May 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Was there DOE money behind that?
    11 May 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    I share this article. A little old but it serves as reading.

     

    Pike Research forecasts accelerating hybrid locomotive sales from 2015-2020 (31 October 2010)

     

    http://bit.ly/JfHnD0

     

    Have a nice day.
    10 May 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The key point to remember about the Pike study is that they were analyzing new locomotive sales, rather than existing locomotive retrofits.

     

    It's also worth noting that while I've always written about the NS project as a cost-effective fuel efficiency idea, there are regulations that will take effect in 2015 that require all railroads to significantly reduce their emissions. So while the potential PbC solution is only being pursued by NS, the problem exists for every railroad in the country, and the other guys as a group have five times as many locomotives as NS.
    10 May 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    From the article:

     

    ...The market for hybrid locomotives will likely get a boost from two important forces, according to the report. First, in the middle of the decade, new rules regarding diesel locomotive emissions will come into effect in North America and the European Union. By 2014 in the European Union and 2015 in North America, the current diesel locomotive will require substantial changes or exhaust treatments to meet emission rules. This will help drive interest in having hybrids meet these strict new regulations.

     

    In addition, the market will receive a boost from new diesel locomotive emissions regulations scheduled to go into effect in the European Union in 2014 and in North America in 2015, which will require diesel locomotives to receive substantial changes or exhaust treatments. In addition, railroad infrastructure is growing rapidly in India and China, and emissions concerns will drive hybrid demand in those markets as well.

     

    —Dave Hurst
    10 May 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Added.

     

    3 minutes from order placed to order filled.
    10 May 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Ditto, Jon.
    10 May 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Any further disruptive posts that appear to be personal attacks will be deleted.

     

    Thank you to those who maintain a civil dialogue on the fundamentals of the company and the stock.
    10 May 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    New vehicle suggestion for the APH: http://bit.ly/KNWzSC

     

    Comes in handy for tough conversations: http://bit.ly/KIoUPO
    10 May 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I'll pledge $5 for the APH uniform purchase pool.
    10 May 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I'll design the t-shirt (golf shirts for the more buttoned down).
    10 May 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    And then we could hire somebody to write a great background score that we could distribute to the APH group as mood music. – http://bit.ly/IN3yj9
    10 May 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Kevlar fabric? Or something from the new graphite nanotube arena? Should be (non) bleeding edge, no?

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    APH

     

    I must admit this blog is a breath of fresh air after reading the pounding JP has taken from his other blogs, EV Dreams, Confessions EV.
    John, I REALLY don't know how you do it other than your entertaining brilliant retort and command of the English language!
    10 May 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    If you think about it, I've made a good living as a writer for three decades. They may have been very formal disclosure documents, but a good handle on the language is always an asset. This blog has taught me more about the art of communicating than I would have ever thought possible. I owe it all to the readers and am grateful for the education.
    10 May 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    HTL.. your TSLA is on a roll. Up $3 today . Earnings miss was well received by Mr Market.
    10 May 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Yep. As I mentioned a short while back, last time they missed by around 10%, the stock rose for three days before starting to trade normally.

     

    So I put aside my risky nature and just stood back.

     

    As always, my patience served me well. I'll be back at at again shorting, via going long puts, when the charts look right. And then go long calls when it reverses.

     

    Windows might be shorter this time - they're planning on rolling out their new car in June. I'll have to study a bit and see if the trading patterns change due to that or not.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I forgot about tsla rolling out the new car in June, that will or should change it's behavior.
    I give you credit though, your TA on it has been spot on. Very good work.
    10 May 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Apparently Scott Sklar of The Stella Group includes Axion's PowerCube when he presents on various solar/renewable technologies.

     

    "Renewable Energy Overview," March 13, 2012, presented at the Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.

     

    http://bit.ly/KIOtjD
    (see slide 19/46)

     

    The venue for this presentation is particularly interesting: 
    "The Inter-American Development Bank, the leading source of long-term lending for Latin America and the Caribbean, today (April 15, 2010) announced its intention to increase its financing for renewable energy and climate-related projects to $3 billion a year by 2012."
    http://bit.ly/JZAVJI

     

    Note that Sklar gets around, for example, presenting March 1, 2011 at the Central America Renewable Energy Forum: II 
    "CAREF II will highlight financial programs regional partner countries and investors can take advantage of to encourage U.S. exports of renewable energy technologies as well as efforts in the region to unify the electric grid and broaden renewable energy development. "
    http://bit.ly/KIOrZ2
    10 May 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty,
    You are the Research King. Thanks.
    10 May 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: good links. Haven't finished reading them yet, but in the first I counter their claim of jobs creation with the well-known that where solar was heavily supported by government in Spain(?), every "created" job resulted in a loss of 7 jobs.

     

    I'll continue reading, as I try to read everything, but I'm skeptical based on information already in hand. I immediately become suspicious of an "agenda" or incomplete research.

     

    Thanks again,
    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    :-) Yes indeed, Sklar has been around pushing renewable energy since the '70s. http://tinyurl.com/6mb...
    <
    Scott Sklar runs a clean energy technology optimization and strategic policy firm, The Stella Group, Ltd, which he founded in 1995 and came on full time to lead in 1999. The firm facilitates clean distributed energy projects for commercial, industrial and military applications. -- specializing on blending technologies and financing for projects, as well as assisting companies to scale-up market penetration. Previously, Sklar served as Executive Director for 15 years of two national trade association concurrently, the Solar Energy Industries Association and the National BioEnergy Industries Association. Prior of running trade associations, Sklar was Political Director of The Solar Lobby for two years, -- a renewable energy advocacy group founded by the big nine US environmental organizations. And for three years previous to joining the advocacy organization, served as Washington Director for two years and Acting RD&D Director for one year of the National Center for Appropriate Technology (NCAT), a federally-funded applied technology institution promoting renewables and energy efficiency. Sklar started his energy career serving as a military and energy aide to Senator Jacob K Javits (NY) on his Washington personal and Committee staff for nine years, and cofounded the Congressional Solar caucus in the mid-1970's where most of the renewable energy legislation first was passed by the US Congress as a result of the first and second oil embargos.
    <
    10 May 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Hah, just another hunter-gatherer. But thanks, Metro.
    10 May 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    HTL: some suspicions on my part too. But, hey, if the guy wants to promote PowerCubes, I can get behind that much, at least. Lol.
    10 May 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: Let's throw in another almost $5B that the Queen of England recently initiated for "Electricity Market Reform."

     

    --The Queen also confirmed the government will establish the Green Investment Bank, which will be headquartered in Edinburgh and seeded with an initial £3bn ($4.84bn) of public money.

     

    -- EMR is touted as the biggest shake-up of the UK’s energy market in a generation, with the aim of creating a more favourable playing field for renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

     

    http://bit.ly/K2s66f
    10 May 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Which led me to find this (we all remember TG stating something like $122B will be spent globally on the grid by 2020). This article states that by 2015, $46B will be spent around the world on the smart grid:

     

    http://bit.ly/KOnQ7u

     

    Better recheck your opinion, bang! But I do agree with you, in that it will be NSC that will lead Axion PbC sales, for the immediate future. But by the end of 2013, this should change.
    10 May 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    There better be WAY more than sales to NS!

     

    With 300% yoy rev growth in 2012 and 2013, 2013's rev's will be approx $128mil. Assuming flooded sales growth continues at recent rates, approx. $100mil of the $128 will be PbC. Rick wrote that Vani said NS sales of 50-75 locos over 5 yrs, which = 10-15 average. That's $1mil/month, say, which = $12mil/yr. So, that leaves $88mil of rev's to come from other sources. That 90% makes other things the REAL story next year. OR, the NS number reported by Rick is way off.

     

    I'm thinking a combo of PC, auto, and eventually, other RRs. Such a diversified customer portfolio would capture a bigger multiple in the stock, too, which would compound the positive.
    10 May 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I'm inclined to think the NS number may be much faster than Mr. Dantam is willing to say publicly. I also think there's a good chance other railroads may join the party.

     

    The railroads are all staring down the barrel of strict new emissions regulations that take effect in 2015. Nothing will reduce the regulatory pressure faster or cheaper than battery power that completely replaces diesel power. With 24,000 major problems on America's railroads that could cost many many billions to upgrade to meet the new standards, the pressure is pretty intense.
    10 May 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    John, would you consider TG's last call remarks as "guidance". I always thought guidance was more formal then how it came across last time.

     

    Ofcourse, I too want 300% yoy growth but I'm not inclined to hold TG's feet to the fire unless this next CC formalized the 2012 and 2013 revenue expectations.

     

    It seems to me the gap between Vani's mention of 50-75 locos over 5 years and TG's 300% projected growth going forward means that PowerCube and auto OEMs will come in much sooner than we expect. And/or there are other railroads close to placing big orders sooner than we think.

     

    I for one will be happy when revenues exceed market cap as a start =)
    10 May 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    *present* market cap, right? ;)
    10 May 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Yes present market cap and not counting any more share offerings either.

     

    Heck, I sure hope market cap doesn't fall below 40M since we should be able to have revenues above that number before Fall 2013 if all goes as predicted/guided.
    10 May 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Guidance, like everything else, develops in stages. First you gain clarity on how revenues should ramp over the next couple quarters or years. As granularity increases you gain clarity on EBITDA and earnings. It generally takes a couple years to progress from broad brush-strokes to detailed guidance, but talking about revenue ramps over the next couple years is generally the first step. There will no doubt be considerable lumpiness, but it's a start.
    11 May 2012, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Why did Axion file another amended 10-K ????
    http://bit.ly/Kd4NYJ
    10 May 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Somebody made a mistake (or some new data came to light) since the first one...

     

    Sorry guys, I just don't have the time (or desire) to lay these two documents out and do a full comparo...

     

    I'll buy an adult beverage next time I run into whoever DOES do this, however.
    10 May 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It was an amendment to a post effective amendment for the resale of the 2009 shares. There was either an error in the original filing or they got a comment letter from the SEC requesting clarification of something. It happens all the time.
    10 May 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Someone is selling a lot at .42.

     

    Coincidence that .42 is a 20% gain on the .35 offering? Nah.
    10 May 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    If you're an investor who has good access to deal flow, there's a lot to be said for implementing a 20% up and out strategy if you think you can turn your cash three to five times per year. It's not a huge bite on any one deal, but the multiplier effect is a thing of beauty. I can pretty much guarantee that the sellers today bought in early February.

     

    In my experience 20% to 30% of the new shares in any registered direct deal end up in the hands of flippers. The rest of the stock usually goes to investors who have a multi year time horizon.
    10 May 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    For those interested:
    Webinar: Renewable Energy Integration
    http://bit.ly/IMdDI3
    10 May 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I've been working through some UltraBattery reports lately to try to compare the PbC and UB.
    For now, I just wanted to note the conclusion to a Sandia National Labs report testing the UB for grid and renewables apps:

     

    "The HRPSoC cycling also identified an aging effect and an accelerated end of charge voltage rise. The aging effect was seen as the increase and change in shape of the end of charge voltage between the initial and final cycles. Because the shape of the voltage rise curve changed, it is unlikely that this effect was just the result of lower capacity as the testing proceeded. The accelerated end of charge voltage increase occurred after the first cycle sequence. Into the second cycle sequence the end of charge voltage would quickly rise to the limit voltage (2C1 and 4C1) and trigger a capacity measurement. If after the first cycle sequence, the battery was allowed to rest for an extended period of time, then the end of charge voltage would be in line with the first cycle sequence and the battery could cycle for a full 1,000 HRPSoC cycles. Both of these effects could require modifications or limits to the use of the Ultrabattery in utility regulation service or wind farm energy smoothing applications. "

     

    http://bit.ly/LrZLFG
    (p. 13/13)
    Note that although this document is dated to 2008, East Penn (in the form of Ecoult) offers it as one of their main available reports on http://bit.ly/LrZKle
    (displayed when you click to 'read more')
    10 May 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Will someone with an appropriate technical background tell me what this means in plain english in terms of the Ultrabattery? It sounds to me that unless you baby the battery's usage it loses performance and doesn't cycle anywhere near as well as the PbC.
    10 May 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Not yet escaping technical terminology, and I hope others weigh in, but note this quote from the report talking about the effect of this characteristic: "As the Ultrabattery approached end of testing, Figure 10 shows how the end of charge voltage increased during HRPSoC cycling. This effect reduced the power capability of the battery and could shortened the cycling interval" (p. 11).
    The phenomenon is discussed at more length from pp. 10-13.

     

    But do note that this HRPSoC (high rate partial state of charge) test routine is different from the one BMW employed in testing auto SS performance. They did this because they wanted a grid/wind specific test. The different test routine can lead to differences of cycle life in and of itself. The routine is explained on pp. 4-5.
    10 May 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Let no one forget the superior passive equalization behavior of the PbC in large strings. Do we know if the ultrabattery behaves anywhere near as well?
    10 May 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    It's hardly technical or precise, but Ecoult claims as one of the 'key benefits' of the UltraBattery that it has "excellent string behavior."
    http://bit.ly/LrZKle
    I haven't yet seen any fuller discussions of this.
    10 May 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    How does one define "excellent string behavior"?

     

    Whose definition should be used?

     

    Does Axion use the same definition?

     

    Enquiring minds etc etc etc.
    10 May 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "superior passive equalization behavior"

     

    We could use a little of that, occasionally, in the "strings" of these concentrators.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "Excellent string behavior" is what Ben Bernanke hopes for as he pushes on it!

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I kinda like silly string.
    10 May 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    It's always hard to figure out what somebody means by excellent. We've seen graphs from Axion that show the difference between an AGM string and a PbC string and they look pretty good to me. That being said my opinion and $5 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

     

    It would be easier for investors if there was perfect comparability between test protocols and performance reporting, but as long as there are different tests and different protocols, we're not likely to see it.
    11 May 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Very cool!

     

    This is an interactive DOE site that tracks energy storage projects going on all over the world (hopefully there are more than listed):

     

    http://bit.ly/JinPtR

     

    Note: Check out the PNM Prosperity Energy Storage project going on in Albuquerque, New Mexico, involving a solar and "advanced lead acid batteries." Project was commissioned last August. East Penn is supplying the batts (from Axion, perhaps?).

     

    One can zoom in and out until you see red tabs, which upon being clicked, list the particular project, by using this map:

     

    http://bit.ly/KJ30fd
    10 May 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, Ecoult claims the project for the UltraBattery.

     

    http://bit.ly/IWGvSv
    10 May 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Well, those are handy-dandy.

     

    Thanks Maya!

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    HTL: You're right, indeed handy-dandy. I "favorited" that DOE site.
    10 May 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Lafferty. I can't wait to someday see Axion Power on that map.
    10 May 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "Thanks, Lafferty. I can't wait to someday see Axion Power on that map." If the UB doesn't workout and EP wants a battery in the grid storage wars, then you may get your wish...

     

    BTW, they also have their UPS batteries in test there. I would love to know if they are using them in a mixed configuration. And it wouldn't be much of a stretch to think they might have a string of PbC's...
    10 May 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    This is the project identified earlier that used the grant funds given to East Penn to deploy a utility project.

     

    Now that it is website advanced it looks different than the grant dream.

     

    Maya,
    Thanks for the link. Very interesting
    10 May 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Min. Pr: 0.4100, Max Pr: 0.4200, VW Avg. Trade Pr: $0.4172
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 25000, AvTrSz: 4899
    Vol 117575, Buy:Sell 2.50:1

     

    "Buys" $34,968.53, "Sells" $14,081.22

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I'm looking forward to Monday's close so that we can all see what the 10-Q says and study it before Tuesday's CC.
    10 May 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » After a deep breath...this way to the next concentrator.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 May 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
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