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  • Axion Power Concentrator 99: May 13, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries 220 comments
    May 13, 2012 8:14 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries

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    Links to new instablog's from John Petersen and Futurist.

    When Will Axion See The End Of The Flipping? By John Petersen

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Comments (220)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Latest post from iindelco:

     

    This is an interesting older research paper. You'll note there is a table on pg 6 that has 2015 projections on different storage technology. I found this statement in sec. 7.4 of interest.

     

    "There are now good reasons to expect growth
    in the electric-vehicle market to drive primarily three types of
    batteries: carbon-lead-acid, lithium ion, and lead acid. That
    technology driver is likely to mean that other types of batteries
    (NiCd, NaS, V Redox, ZnBr, NaBr, etc. [10]) which cannot
    participate in the automotive market will be left behind,
    notwithstanding the strong DOE support they have recently received [31]."

     

    Thus they view Automotive as an important launch vehicle for grid based storage. Economies of scale if you will. Yes it was a VERY good decision to piggy back the AGM battery architecture for PBC.

     

    Also at the tail end of the conclusion.

     

    "The need for high-cycle-rate storage (using lithium-ion
    batteries, PbC-acid batteries, flywheels, or ultra-capacitors) to deal
    with rapid transients at substations near factories, subways, and trams will grow as these demands grow, but their need would decrease with the growth of dam up-rating, Windfuels, UPHS, and H2 fuel cells, as all of these would also help improve power quality."

     

    http://bit.ly/JabV9q
    13 May 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    OT: http://bit.ly/JaSrPJ

     

    That's with a T. I don't think I've ever seen a number so big before in print. Even if it's only half true, and even if only 10% of that is recoverable... it's still game-changing. Add in the GasFrac dudes and it's devastating. ;)
    13 May 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... These reserves have been known for decades. To call them "recoverable" is a bit of a stretch. The known drawback to this with present technology is water. Like in not even close, unless you can talk S.California, Arizona, Utah & Nevada to temporarily move somewhere else for a few years, but infrastructure is also a problem. It will take oil at much higher prices to justify.
    13 May 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that reference, 481'. I don't think much of anyone outside geologists community has seen an oil reserves estimate in the trillions before. Trillion of cubic feet natural gas, yes; oil, no.

     

    And, as you so aptly note, GasFrac technology stands a chance of changing the economics of extracting those reserves. It appears key to producing the Niobrara shale in Colorado, Wayoming, Kansas.
    13 May 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As I recall, the green river shale has oil in the form of kerogen, which may or may not be recoverable with horizontal wells and big fractures. I once read that the one of the first people to learn about the oil bearing qualities of the rock built a fireplace and chimney from oil shale and had a very bad outcome. When the green river was a hot topic in the '80s, they were talking about mining the shale, crushing it and putting it through a retort to recover the oil.
    14 May 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    481, be very cautious when you see an article that mentions both "oil shale" and "shale oil" as they are not the same, but are also sometimes miss-used. The clincher should be a mention of "kerogen" that means you re talking about "immature" oil that is firmly embedded in rock and will not come out with any amount of fracking (by Gasfrac even).

     

    In the Kerogen ("Oil Shale") world there is an actual heat-based chemical process needed to create proper oil from the rock (either mined or in-situ), there are solutions (retorting-like generally) used in other counties, but they are usually necessity (as the oil is uneconomic, so if it is all you have it maybe worth it) rather than by choice. But lots of people keep trying. Now that BULM's EnShale project (of unknown pilot success) will be owned (and less leveraged) by Eurasian, the best leveraged investment opp seems to be TomCo on the LSE, who have a resource and a licence deal with PrivateCo EcoShale who in turn have recently been promised up to $400m by Total recently, to tryout their "capsulated" method, see Epstein's articles on SA as a starter. [Long TOM]
    14 May 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Dave, thanks sincerely. I didn't mean for my slightly OT post to grow such legs. It was just the trillion barrel number that got me, especially when voiced by a (seemingly neutral) administration functionary. In any case, this is all going to be a decades long story and discussion.. with likely many a twist as it all plays out.
    14 May 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    To put the western shales into perspective, they were the focus of a major DOE effort in the 80s and 90s to develop a US Syncrude capacity. They could never get past the economic and environmental challenges and the focus shifted to the Alberta tar sands as an easier source.
    14 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    D, these guys might, *might* have a valid means here that doesn't require such heretofore copious amounts of water:

     

    http://bit.ly/JatupW

     

    http://www.gasfrac.com

     

    If I understand correctly, they're using liquid propane as a fracking fluid, and apparently it has some advantages. Complicated stuff, and I wouldn't pretend for a minute that it's going to be just simple. But whatever the techniques, and whatever the obstacles, if the resource is in fact there in that kind of quantity, and the economics allow, I say that where there is a will, and an ability to make a buck, there is a way...
    13 May 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Thanks, I'll spend a little time looking at this company but from just a cursory view it looks like it is not well suited to the Western shale fields. I've got a lot of stuff on the Shell experiments in Colorado and the Unocal failure on my broken machine. Western shale is mostly kerogen formations and will not yield the liquids that the Eastern formations do. To recover this oil the process seems to be one of retorting either in situ or mining, much like the tar sands.

     

    Here is a link that might help. I'd direct you to the FACTS SHEET section for a quick overview.

     

    http://bit.ly/KDP03M

     

    And a little light PR type reading

     

    http://lat.ms/K8RFyb
    http://bit.ly/KDP0k0

     

    It is going to take a intense capital investment for nearly a decade to bring the region up to usable standards and it is going to need to be done with a clear plan in mind. It might even take pre-production development of the regions geothermal for electrical power. Any way you want to look at it the resource is easily 10 years out and more like 20 (unless wildcatting just does a quick scorched earth raid on the fields).

     

    Well, enough OT for the battery boys. Now back to the discussion at hand.
    14 May 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2697) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Is the kerogen soluble in liquid CO2? I know CO2 is used for a fancy dry cleaning process and should therefore dissolve some types of oil.

     

    The technology isn't exactly new but it isn't widely used AFAIK.

     

    14 May 2012, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • jmcheln
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    48 and DRich;

     

    re: disruptive technologies for EOR/Energy Oil Recovery...
    if u have not already check out Wavefront Technology Solutions (listed on Canadian venture xchng as wee.v & on pnk sheets as wftsf.pk) .

     

    Great tech, good company, dismal pps performance... similar to Axion in those regards. I believe patient longs will be handsomely rewarded; do yr. own dd.

     

    for those interested ...
    http://bit.ly/J3ULJN
    http://bit.ly/KguAf3

     

    glta, do yr. own dd.

     

    - - jmcheln
    14 May 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    DR, thanks for the reference URLs.

     

    I could be mistaken (neither a geologist, nor chemist) but I'm thinking pretty much all of the oil shales are kerogen reservoirs encased/trapped in different kinds of rock. The fact sheet on Green River shale notes that formation is kerogen laced limestone rock whereas some/many of the eastern shale formations are silica-based rock. Again, I could be mistaken, but my understanding is that limestone tends to be much more porous than silica based rocks making limestone less costly to produce hydrocarbons from.
    14 May 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >siliconhillbilly ... Simple answer ... No. All Western shale "solutions" have involved heating (retort) so I would imagine super-heated steam, be it open pit mining or underground, with entrained CO2 would be high on the list because it works in Alberta. I am not aware of any use for a cryogenic liquid as an extractive tool, unless its used to build a "freeze" wall around extraction wells as a safety system. There is a lot going on here so I don't know of a WINNING solution. Hydraulic Fracturing is not the production tool it is in the Eastern gas shales but is a tool.

     

    http://bit.ly/LJ27jD
    14 May 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    D-inv > "I could be mistaken (neither a geologist, nor chemist) but I'm thinking pretty much all of the oil shales are kerogen reservoirs encased/trapped in different kinds of rock."

     

    All oil shales are indeed likely kerogen, but oil shale and "shale oil" are not the same thing and I was lumping the two together. My bad.
    14 May 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    This looks like a good article and the comments are very impressive:

     

    http://bit.ly/JCahcJ

     

    One company involved in this is Genie (GNE) which was spun out of IDT which is well known amongst the bottom-feeder crowd (of which I'd consider myself a member).
    14 May 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D, looks like an info-rich resource, one I will try to explore. I know I've got miles to go to become educated on the subject. In all of this, of course, time will tell, and the proof will be in the production...
    14 May 2012, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... That production is what scares me. It could take a real resource and turn it into junk if not done well. But this is America and planning is not what we do well.
    14 May 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I can certainly share the concern and appreciate the importance of developing the resource in a prudent, efficacious way.
    14 May 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Drich, Make sure you qualify that statement. Maybe with an "on average we are not trending well". In spite of our failures we still have some creative and successful people/organizations. Just like any culture we have the "Good, The Bad, and The Ugly". It's advantaging the first in the former statement that we all need to support. Last time I looked we have no Gods walking the earth in spite of what the manipulators will tell you.

     

    Soylent Green.... People should have been just as horrified or worse when our fearless leaders came up with the corn ethanol fiasco as an example. Well, unless you ship it before pre-poisoning the poison.
    14 May 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I'll not argue with the fact that the USA has a wealth of creative, if not ingenious, people. They just are not the ones most people seek out for the greater good. As a people, our best planning is devoted to war and that hasn't been going all that well recently.
    14 May 2012, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, maybe they should just digress all the way back to the old fallout plan. Mother, take to turnips out of the root cellar.....again.
    14 May 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    "As a people, our best planning is devoted to war and that hasn't been going all that well recently. "

     

    I don't want to go too much into it but this is unduly harsh. I am not sure who or what you are comparing the American people too.

     

    There seems to be a common theme among government/country nihilists that believe our politicians, our CEO's and might as well say our doctors and lawyers too, are the dumbest and most evil of our population and somehow all the "really smart" and "really good" people are just being held down by the dumb and evil.

     

    There is something that just does not make sense regarding all this hate talk about our government, our "elite" etc.
    14 May 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Unless you're going all John Steinbeck (or Sinclair Lewis(?)) on me here, I'm not sure I understand the reference.
    14 May 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... I must agree. I don't understand why all the popularity of "evil" in business, government, etc. finds fodder to feed on ... but it does. My guess is that we, as a nation, have bought into fear of seemingly everything as the root cause because the picture of broad spectrum equality of opportunity has gotten a bit fuzzy. As to what the comparison is, it is us and our own ideals.

     

    I'm not going any further down this road here. I'm out numbered and it is OT.
    14 May 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    When people begin to feel that they have little or no control of their own fate, they naturally look for reasons why.

     

    Then things like income disparity, declining middle class, constantly reduced purchasing power, ... come to the fore and folks believe they have found the culprits.

     

    They aren't *always* wrong nor *always* right either.

     

    HardToLove
    14 May 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    HTL > "When people begin to feel that they have little or no control of their own fate, they naturally look for reasons why."

     

    Must have been George Bush's fault.
    14 May 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... GB2 didn't help but the base reason for where we are today goes back much much further. More a "corporatist" problem than a political party one.
    14 May 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    In a nutshell, I think the long-term solution lies somewhere in the idea of *much* more widespread and democratized ownership of dividend paying stocks in the hands of mainstreet. Down to every man, woman and child. GB2's ideas of SS reform might have led there, but we know how far that got. Bottom line, distribution of wealth through taxation and transfer payments is destructive, along with coerced distortion of labor costs and recompense. Distribution through widespread shares of ownership in corporations is much more healthy... just mho.
    14 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... I think your dead wrong thinking the majority of individuals possess the required business acumen & time to make individually or socially beneficial decisions to insure their future needs. They just don't care that much and are far more useful to society doing what they do or pursuing what they want to do. Shocking! I further don't think there is enough "professional" talent to take up the slack at the price points the average & under wage earner would need to rely on.

     

    Although I believe in a more democratized ownership of certain types of capital under our republican model and think government could lower taxes and increase revenue by being "run like a business". I get a lot of nodding of heads in agreement from my "Tea Party" type friends. When applying the rules & ethos of corporate culture to governing, I don't get the feeling they have thought this cliche through. Even as I know what I think that business should/would look like (which is of no consequence) , I find there is no consensus answer to my question of "Just what business would the government be in?"
    14 May 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Wow! You guys are busy...I guess I should never be surprised by how fast APC comments can pile up...even on Mother's Day.

     

    Frankly, during this Tuesday's CC, I'm far more interested in learning that East Penn has increased their need for Axion to continue to make "olive branch" orders for East Penn. I don't give a crap about the bottom line, as long as I know Axion is continuing to be ambitiously frugal, while increasing their top line; revenues. All while continuing to build a relationship with the largest privately held battery maker in the free world.

     

    I care much more that revenues keep ramping, and that Axion can produce 100% perfect batteries--reliable, flooded or not. Right now, making a new kind of battery that doesn't blow up, must be a hot topic out their in many sectors of potential usages.

     

    That's the story for me during this CC: making batteries flawlessly.

     

    As Granville put it (paraphrasing), "It's our gravy."

     

    I love gravy. A well made gravy always makes the meat taste better.

     

    But where the heck are all these flooded batteries Axion is making for East Penn going? Who is buying them. Do they need more? For how long will this ramping up continue?

     

    I've toured the facilities. One facility is all about making flooded batteries, and has since been modernized to possibly and more efficiently make even more batteries. The other facility is more dedicated to research, a relatively small office and conference table, and out there in the middle of a rather large, freshly cemented shop floor, stands a lone electrode-making Gen2 line.

     

    We are lucky shareholders to have shares of a company that bought a licensed battery facility for a minstrel's song, and then to also have a pal named East Penn.

     

    One thing we have in our hip pockets is that revenues will continue, and maybe even increase, until the PbC gains acceptance.

     

    I'm looking forward to the day when Axion just makes the dovetails, and let's others assemble the cabinets.
    14 May 2012, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You have to admit, "Axion Inside" has a nice ring to it. I'm not sure that Intel would agree, but one can dream.
    14 May 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Having Intel pick a big fight with us just might be worth it, no? I mean, as long as they spell our name right.... ;)
    14 May 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3089) | Send Message
     
    I like "Axionized!"
    14 May 2012, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    More mainstream journalists recognizing that price matters when it comes to electric drive. This is from Marketwatch this morning.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/IQOwVA

     

    The relatively low expectations for how many electric RAV4's would be sold (2600 over 3 years) is rather amazing and the author suspects that they won't even hit that number!
    Slowly what JP has been saying for a while is being recognized by others.
    14 May 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Japan and Germany have had to build the alternative energy plants first, Germany is doing wind & solar, Japan is moving to LNG first. then they may work on energy storage in phase 2 or 3.

     

    8:16 AM Chevron (CVX) signs a deal to sell Japan's Tohoku Electric 1M tonnes of liquefied natural gas per year for 20 years. The gas will come from its $29B Wheatstone project in Western Australia, still under construction. Japan is ramping up natural gas use due to a shortfall in nuclear power output following last year's Fukushima disaster. [Energy] Comment!
    14 May 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/JvwMRC

     

    Sometimes these stories bleed over into the rare earth blog space. Just for background.
    14 May 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Isn't it wonderful that taxpayer money in California is being used to subsidize experiments with batteries manufactured in China?
    14 May 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, one of my favorite angles...

     

    Remember when we discovered back in 2008 that a chunk of the Stimulus Bill was millions of dollars flowing to China to educate Chinese "sex workers" about safe sex?
    14 May 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/J4xFSQ
    14 May 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I retract my snide comment about the imported batteries.
    14 May 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I remember his name from when this was announced (Seems it didn't go so well). Exporting RV's to China.

     

    http://exm.nr/LJsDJL

     

    Also he is affiliated with Balqon.

     

    http://www.balqon.com
    14 May 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's more than an affiliation. Winston Chung owns 9,312,500 Balqon shares (26%) and warrants to buy another 9,177,500 shares that would take his ownership up to 41%.

     

    http://bit.ly/JdJAbV

     

    Now Balqon's efforts to get into the stationary storage business make a little more sense.
    14 May 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, I really have not followed Balqon and W.C. that closely for a year or more. I know there were ties in some fashion with Thunder Sky batteries and he had some "Things" going on closer to home as well. He seems to the an "Interesting" guy.

     

    http://exm.nr/J4DWhk
    14 May 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Loved the last paragraph of the article you linked:

     

    "In its heyday, Chinese opera might have provided a visceral social commentary on Chung’s Machiavellian maneuvers, but the new China seems indifferent to such activities. Chung - like a principal player in an old time medicine show - continues to tout his “miracle elixir” – investment in return for export opportunities – to financially distressed (and some not so distressed) US prospects. Unfortunately, Chung’s miracle elixir may end up tasting more like snake oil."
    14 May 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Maybe when they figure out all the things he's up to they can use him for a localized Chinese version. I did use ""Interesting" guy" to describe him!

     

    http://bit.ly/J4GmfR
    14 May 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've always preferred *colorful* in cases like this.
    14 May 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Wow, 125K offered at .416
    Don't see one that big very often.

     

    Even the top two Level II bids are bigger than normal:
    30k @.415 and 40K @ .41

     

    Not much volume so far though .... 26,225

     

    Push and pull ... bad market v. conference call
    14 May 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2679) | Send Message
     
    That 125K has been out for an hour. It started @ 42 cents. Its even more interesting to me that the 30K bid @ .415 has refused thus far to come down .001 ps to make the trade -- unless both the bid and ask are from the MM.
    14 May 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yep, The 30 USD stand off between small block bid and larger block ask.

     

    Bottom feeder ecstasy.

     

    He's gonna blink first.

     

    No I'm not.

     

    Ahhhh. Small block loses.
    14 May 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    Oil down to under 95 bucks. Anyone seeing any relief at the pumps. Not where i live !!!
    14 May 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    gas down 40 cents a gallon now from Ky to Florida
    14 May 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    here you are...

     

    http://bit.ly/Md6CG2
    14 May 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    I take that back. Wife said we dropped 4 cents from last week. Our FIRST decline....Was $4.09....

     

    map
    14 May 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2232) | Send Message
     
    Very little where I live.... When oil prices rise, gas stations increase the price per gallon almost immediately in lock step. However, when oil prices fall, gas stations are, um, lethargic to reflect it in their pricing.

     

    Should we be surprised???
    14 May 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    OR. I have seen that cycle many times and it hurts every time. In our case the rates are slow to catch the raising fuel costs but quick to catch the falling ones. And there's not a darn thing I can do about it...
    14 May 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock stategist just said on Fox that they only do trades that benefit their shareholders....humm..... Doll is speaking now and actually said adding to energy as they are light in that area....
    14 May 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Don't know where you live, MAP, but I strongly suspect the most recent uptick in consumer confidence is directly related to declining retail pump prices for gasoline and diesel. Around me (central Maryland), unleaded regular was priced $3.91 - $3.97 two weeks ago with current posted prices down to $3.58 - $3.67
    14 May 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    I am an hr outside NYC in the foot of Catskills. Not a penny move in last 2 weeks !!! Just paid 4.09 yesterday !!!! For 87 proof....

     

    map
    14 May 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Article from "the Atlantic" about winning government support for the wind industry.

     

    --In particular, they noted that production tax credits were set to expire at the end of 2012, and that without them, the wind turbine manufacturing and production industry, with an estimated 78,000 jobs nationwide, might be facing serious layoffs.

     

    http://bit.ly/JweiQZ
    14 May 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I always love stories like that because they throw the term *jobs* around like it means something. When I think of creating jobs I think of building a factory that will employ people for as long as the factory makes a useful product, and maybe even increase employment over time. When people talk about green tech jobs they're invariably looking at a one to two year construction window before 95% of the headline jobs evaporate. I don't see that much value in hiring 100,000 people to build this year's wind turbines if you know that 95,000 of them will get pink slips when the building is done.
    14 May 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    same goes with roads, building, and any construction jobs JP, Politicians love them though ... they get back 50% of stimulus money in the first year...35% tax rate plus 14.5 % social security...then u go into recession again and do it again.
    14 May 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    John: For some time, I guess over a year, I've been tracking the development of wind farms in Somerset County, PA, where my family pulls together every year for a reunion. Capturing my attention, back in 2001, six wind turbines popped up, near where I exit the PA Turnpike for the family vacation. Somerset County is one of the windiest and cloudiest counties in the US, and rests on a high altiplano that sweeps up to the Laurel Highlands and Allegheny Mountain.

     

    There a several large wind farm projects in the works. One article I recently read stated that some utility was spending $131M on wind turbines that "could" supply electricity to 14,000 homes. That works to about $9,400 per home.

     

    My take away is that no government subsidy was needed to make this a viable investment by the utility, given that the expected life span of a wind turbine is 25 years, before refurbishing would occur.

     

    Of course, nothing goes smoothly, as NIMBY is occurring with how close county residents want to live near a wind turbine. At first it was proposed to be 750 feet, then raised to 1000 feet. But now a measure is in that might make it 4000 feet. Attorneys are scrambling, there's even good neighbor agreements, essentially "gag orders," and implied fears from the aviation industry. Ornithologists are another tempest in the teapot.

     

    These wind turbine farms are no small operation. For example, one called the Twin Ridges Wind Farm, expects to create 140 megawatts.

     

    Wind power is big in PA (the largest of any state east of the Mississippi). By law, PA must generate 18% of its electricity from alternative sources by 2020. And by 2020 there is expected to be 1400 turbines state wide, generating 3000 megawatts.

     

    This county's proximate (relatively) to New Castle and Axion is why I keep (quietly) tracking this developing story.

     

    Your angle about permanent jobs? Twin Ridges Wind Farm will employ about 200 full and part time jobs while being built.

     

    The below link at the very bottom shows how many permanent jobs will be created: Seven

     

    http://bit.ly/JAw2tG
    14 May 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    That is seven jobs for operation maintenance of the turbines. But how many jobs in Public Relations, Lobbying, Environmental NGO's to fight the lobbyists and NIMBY's, etc.

     

    Isn't there supposed to be a "green multiplier" here?
    14 May 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Maya > "Your angle about permanent jobs? Twin Ridges Wind Farm will employ about 200 full and part time jobs while being built.

     

    The below link at the very bottom shows how many permanent jobs will be created: Seven

     

    http://bit.ly/JAw2tG"

     

    Never fear. Once built, though, those 200 working full and part on construction of the windfarm will have re-qualified for six months or so of unemployment comp. The wages earned while constructing the wind farm(s) built with Fed/State subsidies are their unemployment comp "bonus" checks. (Said with tongue only partly in cheek.)
    14 May 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I wounder if they've also learned that cell balance internal to a LAB is also a concern at some level. This is really an uneducated guess on my part and just a thought requiring further research.

     

    "Trojan Battery Expands Industrial Line with New 2-Volt Designs Enhancing Transport and Installation"

     

    http://yhoo.it/Mdbqer
    14 May 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know whether you've seen the string performance comparisons of AGM and PbC batteries that Mr. Dantam showed at ESA and Rosewater has posted on its website, but I'd be fascinated to hear your take – http://bit.ly/KcdcrO
    14 May 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I've seen it and it's one of the performance advantages that come with capacitors. Cell balance issues are pretty well understood and the ways to reduce and deal with them are understood as well.

     

    Of coarse tolerance reduction in the manufacturing process, like any manufacturing process, needs to be understood and controlled based on the needs of the intended application. Often this comes with a cost.

     

    So you can buy batteries with better balance and then you can buy better BMS controls to manage the imbalance that you have. All must be understood and applied as per the needs of the final application. None are free. And in the end you are still going to have to live with the fact that the week points are going to cause stress and require manual intervention. Not inexpensive in remote area, hard to get at places based on packaging (NS999) and darn inconvenient when you need the tool you are using.

     

    Here's a pretty good link with some easy to digest info. on the topic.

     

    http://bit.ly/JYx2XQ
    14 May 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    added at the end of the day
    14 May 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    I added a couple small blocks earlier in the day @$0.416.

     

    Of course, the Scot in me cried "Argh" when I saw some go at $0.41. But then I remembered there's a long horizon.

     

    So I'm smiling, at least until the report and subsequent price action.

     

    HardToLive
    14 May 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    That typo is not true any more than the usual name.
    14 May 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    That wasn't a typo! I couldn't remember how to properly spell it! Scott? Scots? Scotsman? ... Etc.

     

    Just been too long since I spent any time in school! But since I don't embarrass easily, I just took my best shot!

     

    HardToLove (but easy to spell! :-)
    14 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Ok, it's showtime... Ok, now.

     

    zzzzzzzzzzz

     

    uh, now.

     

    zzzz.

     

    Uh... now? Well, dern. I guess a watched inbox is just slow to 'ding'

     

    Now?

     

    zzzzz

     

    drat.
    14 May 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    From memory they usually release around 5pm CST, I'm always on the train home when I get the email.
    14 May 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    10 Q is now available from axion web site under investors/Sec filings
    14 May 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The Form 10-Q is up. – http://1.usa.gov/JBdidz

     

    Revenue is less than I expected at $1.76 million, including flooded sales of roughly $1.34 million. Net loss is down a couple thousand from last year, which shows solid control over spending.

     

    Cash used by operating activities was $1.7 million for the quarter.

     

    The balance sheet looks solid. "We believe that the currently available funds at March 31, 2012, which includes the net proceeds of $8.6 million from our February 2012 registered direct common stock offering and internally generated funds from products sales will provide sufficient financial resources for the current development stage operations, working capital and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2013."
    14 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3662) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Yup, flooded sales seem light. =(

     

    It now will really have to ramp in the next few quarters just to break 10M let alone the 20M I'd (and others) hoped for in 2012.

     

    Do you think it's possible that TG's off the cuff remarks of 300% growth might have been PbC exclusive? Hopefully tomorrow's call clarifies. It wouldn't take much to take the 500k PbC sales to 2M+ with just another test order or two.

     

    I like that our burn rate is manageable but I'd imagine that Axionwould look to raise another round once we get down toward 2-3M left. That gets us to year end so it's possible they will start rounding up the "qualifed" by summer's conclusion since these things can take months. I fear tomorrow we might dip our toes back into the .39 area.
    14 May 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It looks like I certainly got it wrong on the flooded. Then again I was surprised to see that they're still working on the second line because I'd been laboring under the assumption that it was done and ready to go.
    14 May 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    John, is there a seasonal effect? I don't know, but ISTM that there's likely some cyclical component to this. Maybe related to auto sales or introduction of new models?

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm not certain that the flooded batteries Axion is making are for automotive. They could just as easily be for stationary. If they are destined for the automotive market, it would probably be aftermarket which is clearly seasonal.
    15 May 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I agree, John. Cold weather = aftermarket automotive battery sales.
    15 May 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Two important paragraphs in Results of Operations

     

    "Norfolk Southern (“NS”) accepted delivery of large strings of PbC batteries to further their platform testing. We performed duplicate testing in New Castle, as well as comparison testing with other battery technologies. As part of our agreement with NS, Penn State University is also performing string testing on our PbC batteries. The data from all battery system testing to date confirmed PbC batteries are performing as anticipated. The success of this testing is allowing us to expand the locomotive application to include other locomotive end users and locomotive integrators."

     

    The last sentence is interesting, particularly if they're looking at 50 to 75 units from NS alone.

     

    "Expanding potential customer base also applies to the emerging hybrid vehicle market. We have shipped our latest battery iteration to those OEM’s that we have been working most closely with, relative to their incorporation of stop-start technology. As we have previously reported, the OEM’s interest has been fueled by our White Paper that highlights the importance of “charge acceptance” in battery products designed for these markets. The OEM’s are not the only ones recognizing what we have been saying for years relative to the importance of charge acceptance in partial state of charge applications. The ELBC 2012 Conference (the world’s largest lead acid battery conference) is devoting an entire session to this topic at their Fall session."

     

    This entire paragraph is fascinating, particularly since I'll be there for the festivities.
    14 May 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I would like to know the results of the "comparison testing with other battery technologies."
    14 May 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Sales are right where I expected, they will achieve the 8M (300%) base level with the 400k pop from NS. Anything else sold this year will be gravy (assuming the flooded contract maintains its runrate)
    14 May 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    "The OEM’s are not the only ones..."

     

    hmmmm

     

    And, "In addition, we will need working capital to fund our anticipated continued growth of sales in
    traditional batteries and PbC products." Therefore, they expect flooded sales to increase.
    14 May 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure what this means.

     

    "The OEM’s are not the only ones recognizing what we have been saying for years relative to the importance of charge acceptance in partial state of charge application."

     

    Maybe good question for tomorrow.
    14 May 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor: re. "The OEM’s are not the only ones..."
    Don't they just mean that the folks at the ELBC are also recognizing this by devoting a session to it?
    14 May 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Maybe you are right. Just seemed kind of thrown out there and then conditioned with last sentence, so maybe just kind of awkward construction, kind of like this posting.
    14 May 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Mr I > "And, 'In addition, we will need working capital to fund our anticipated continued growth of sales in
    traditional batteries and PbC products.' Therefore, they expect flooded sales to increase. "

     

    Between the lower than expected Q1 revenues and the quarterly report passage you quote I conclude that BW was correct in believing the toll contract was not renewed/does not continue. The contractee under the toll contract supplied the raw materials relieving AXPW of working capital requirements for that production. My inference is that AXPW now anticipates producing and marketing FLA and/or conventional AGM batteries on their own account or entry into a toll manufacturing contract that is configured differently from the 2011 contract.
    14 May 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "... I conclude that BW was correct in believing the toll contract was not renewed/does not continue".

     

    In the filing under "Other highlights of the first quarter of 2012 include:"

     

    There is "... We have been advised by the purchaser that their purchase of these products is expected to continue at least throughout the balance of 2012".

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. I'll look at the 10Q again. The statement is not inconsistent with the financial data and is, in fact, somewhat reassuring in light of income statement data showing product revenue of $1.76 million with product costs of $1.566 million for a gross margin of 12.3%
    15 May 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I believe it refers to the next line:

     

    The OEM’s are not the only ones recognizing what we have been saying for years relative to the importance of charge acceptance in partial state of charge applications. (((The ELBC 2012 Conference (the world’s largest lead acid battery conference) is devoting an entire session to this topic at their Fall session.")))
    14 May 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, I think you're right.
    14 May 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    And the link to the ELBC 2012 session/workshop...

     

    http://bit.ly/IUwNLY
    14 May 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    It does not look like Axion will be presenting, and there is no mention of carbon additives, PbC, or capacitance technologies.
    >>
    Panellists:

     

    Heide Budde-Meiwes (ISEA, RWTH Aachen University)
    Eckhard Karden (Ford Powertrain Research)
    Lan Lam (CSIRO Energy Technology)
    Eberhard Meissner (Johnson Controls)

     

    Panel Moderator: David Rand (CSIRO Energy Technology)

     

    A Workshop will be held during the afternoon of Tuesday, 25 September 2012 to discuss Dynamic Charge Acceptance (DCA). The event recognizes the growing importance of this parameter in stop–start automotive battery applications.

     

    The key issues will be introduced by a short presentation from each of the above four panellists. These will be followed by an open discussion chaired by Geoffrey May.
    The discussion will be facilitated by David Rand.

     

    The presentations are:
    Heide Budde-Meiwes, Dynamic Charge Acceptance: Measurement Procedures for Testing
    Eckhard Karden: The Carmaker’s Key Requirements for Energy Storage Systems for Next Generation Micro-hybrid Vehicles
    Lan Lam: Dynamic Charge Acceptance: Principles to Optimise Battery Performance to Meet Vehicle Requirements
    Eberhard Meissner: Dynamic Charge Acceptance as a Parameter for Lead/Acid Automotive battery Optimisation
    <<

     

    The CSIRO folks may be promoting their Ultrabattery.

     

    Who is going to toot our PbC horn at that workshop?
    14 May 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Tim E. VERY interesting how that thing reads:

     

    "Prior to the conference, on the afternoon of Tuesday 25 September, there will be a special Technical Workshop to discuss Dynamic Charge Acceptance.

     

    This is in recognition of the extreme importance of this parameter in stop and start automotive battery applications. There will be four short presentations to introduce the key issues by Eckhard Karden, Eberhard Meissner, Heide Budde-Meiwes and Lan Lam, followed by an open discussion chaired by Geoffrey May. The discussion will be facilitated by David Rand. Delegates to the Workshop will receive notes prior to the meeting to highlight some of the limitations of current lead-acid batteries for this duty cycle in order to stimulate a useful discussion. Following the meeting, the organisers will circulate the presentation materials with a short summary of the main points raised, in order to help both the battery industry and vehicle manufacturers direct their efforts to improving lead-acid batteries and vehicle systems to keep pace with increased requirements for energy efficiency.

     

    The Dynamic Charge Acceptance Workshop will be limited in numbers, and places will be allocated to the first 100 applicants. A nominal attendance fee of €100 will be charged."
    14 May 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    "There will be four short presentations to introduce the key issues by Eckhard Karden, Eberhard Meissner, Heide Budde-Meiwes and Lan Lam, followed by an open discussion chaired by Geoffrey May. The discussion will be facilitated by David Rand."

     

    Anybody know these presenters?
    14 May 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Just saw your post, SM.
    14 May 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    This is probably the Geoffrey May, chair:

     

    http://bit.ly/Jgb6d9

     

    Anybody know him?

     

    The others are as listed in my post above, from the session flyer at Tim's link above.

     

    David Rand is with CSIRO.
    14 May 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Also, a familiar face can be found by expanding Session 1

     

    http://bit.ly/J5ca4u
    14 May 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    Enders Dickinson is presenting in Session 6, and JP in Session 1 as Tim E mentioned.
    14 May 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    The presenter from Ford, Eckhard Karden, assisted with this presentation at the last ELBC

     

    http://bit.ly/JeSx4s
    14 May 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    "Batteries for Renewable and Industrial Applications"
    Section 6

     

    Axion PbC batteries in emerging applications: Micro-hybrids, hybrid locomotives and battery energy storage systems

     

    Enders Dickinson,
    Axion Power International, Inc, USA
    14 May 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    I am not thrilled with this, to be honest!! Now we will see what the stock does..
    14 May 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... Why am I not surprised? Traders buying into what is plainly not a trading instrument. Speaks volumes.
    14 May 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Well there's Flash traffic! ;)
    14 May 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Had I been driving and MAP had said he was pleased, I would have wrecked the car. Would of had to have been driving a van to take all seven though.
    14 May 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I additionally like the following:

     

    Our onsite PowerCube TM (“Cube”) project continues to respond to signals from the grid in conjunction with our partnership arrangement with Viridity and PJM. There is a high interest level in our Cube technology for several applications. In addition to dispatchable power, we will be proving out the Cube’s ability to provide power quality, back-up power, power smoothing, and load leveling. Our .5MW Cube is a building block size unit that can easily be scaled up or down.
    We continue to evaluate the market for smaller Cubes for residential and community storage and larger Cubes for utilities, oil rigs and other larger applications such as solar and wind. We anticipate establishing additional formal marketing agreements for some of these applications in 2012.

     

    Also very interesting:

     

    We anticipate establishing additional formal marketing agreements for some of these applications in 2012.
    14 May 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Another point of importance:

     

    · In January, we appointed Vani Kumar Dantam to the new position of Senior Vice President/Business Development, Sales and Marketing. Vani brings to our company an extraordinary background that includes broad industry experience and proven leadership. He has expressed his confidence and personal commitment to the commercialization of our PbC Technology.

     

    Again:

     

    He has expressed his confidence and personal commitment to the commercialization of our PbC Technology.
    14 May 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Carlos; The one that caught my eye, because it was a change from the previous filing, was this.

     

    "There is a high interest level in our Cube technology for several applications".

     

    There was no such statement in the EOY Form 10-K statement.

     

    I think I hear the pot simmering on the stove.

     

    HardToLove
    14 May 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Another one with SS:

     

    http://bit.ly/KaNr9x
    14 May 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    So what do we think? selloff tomorrow? another quarter for paint to dry? One thing that will be interesting to listen for tomorrow is (obviously) TG's tone and level of enthusiasm and confidence, which seemed to be so strong last CC... will he be a bit more subdued this time? Or just as ebullient as last? If the latter, my take would be that while the pace of new developments and/or sales may have been just outrun a bit this quarter by the calendar, (thus the underwhelming numbers at this date) but that nevertheless the main project is still very much on track, and we are likely to see and hear exciting things Q2. If on the other hand he becomes a lot more guarded and circumspect, then I think we're in for another period of extended patience... Bottom line, I know a lot of good things are sure to happen this year, but man I sure wish they were happening faster! ;)
    14 May 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... as we pass the 5th furlong, paint is ahead by 2 full lengths, but Axion is pulling to the inside coming into the turn.
    14 May 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    me likey
    14 May 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "another quarter for paint to dry?" ... Well, there is the annual meeting next month ...
    14 May 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Right you are Stefan! I'd forgotten...and that's only 5 weeks away.. so maybe all we face is maybe a bit of quiet between the annual meeting in June, and the September conference and home show.. but in that time we could certainly see powercube sales and maybe other things..
    14 May 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    481086,
    In a few short weeks we will have a consumer product - the residential PC. The Ontario project is on for testing, but the marketing dynamic could change significantly if selling to individual residences.
    14 May 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I hear you Metro, I hear you.... I'm just trying to stir the pot a bit....I'm not sure what I expect... a bit of selloff on minimal volume before the CC, as some vent short term disappointment, but most hanging fire to wait for what's said in the CC, but then depending on what is said... more volume in the pm if it's a selloff, much less if it's no bad news... outside chance of a spike up if something really juicy comes out, and bigger buyers finally wade in..
    14 May 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    481', my take is that selling tomorrow has a much higher probability of incurring greater losses than would waiting a bit. With sufficient cash on the balance sheet to easily continue in operation for six to nine months, enough time for positive developments to emerge.
    14 May 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    2011 flooded battery sales from JP in APC 88:
    Q-1 – $724,810
    Q-2 – $1,325,509, up 83% from Q-1
    Q-3 – $1,803,775 up 36% from Q-2
    Q-4 – $2,556,390 up 42% from Q-3

     

    We can now add in Q1 2012 with JP's Q1 number: "including flooded sales of roughly $1.34 million" down 47% from Q4 2011. YOY sales increase from Q1 2011 was 66.18% but substantially less than Q4 2011.
    14 May 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    For me the Q/Q sales are interesting but other than having enough sales in LAB to thin the cost of the few more talented people they need in the shop to run/maintain the equipment and the few they need to run PBC production I don't much care about growth in flooded sales. I mean,Iis there anyone here that is following Axion because they are interested in their flooded growth story? Let me put it this way, If TG indicated he expected no growth in PBC sales this year but they were going to completely fill their LAB plant with flooded battery production 3 shifts would you be here reading about the stock? I sure wouldn't.

     

    After a base level of flooded is maintained it's inconsequential from my point of view. It's covering a few base costs and keeping a level of people trained so they can run the real mission.And it's keeping the plant fired up so they don't have to bring it up from a cold start every time they get a small PBC order or they need to run some tests.

     

    Just some thoughts to ponder.

     

    PS. Was anyone following the lead acid battery industry this year expecting huge growth in flooded given what came out of companies like JCI and Exide? We had mild winters in NA and Europe so they are working off the inventory stocked up that ran into soft sales.
    14 May 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    iindelco:
    I share your thought. That's what AXION need at the moment.
    I wish you a good night.
    14 May 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Indelco> I have been saying I don't want a glass of the 300% or 400% Kool-aid that's being served up for days now. The increases in flooded battery sales speculation for Q1 was part of that Kool-aid.

     

    I left my smaller AXPW holdings as is before the 10Q but sold 80% of the larger account's AXPW holdings before the 10Q was released. I simply didn't like the potential losses if a major downdraft came about with so many shares so I wanted to reduce my exposure. It left me with plenty of powder, a very minor loss, much lower potential losses it things go badly, and plenty of money in reserve when the skies brighten.
    14 May 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... good move.
    14 May 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,

     

    Buenas noches. Hasta manana.
    14 May 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    DRich:
    With all due respect, but do not think so.
    14 May 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Carlosgavira> I didn't think it would be a popular comment, but it was simple prudence in the face of what I thought would be a disappointing 10Q ahead of the release and I pulled the trigger. I still have plenty of chestnuts left in the fire to get roasted tomorrow.
    14 May 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >carlosgaviria ... For bangwhiz, it makes good sense to be risk averse. He will not miss out on the ramp when it comes.
    14 May 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I can't fault you for your logic. You have to feel comfortable enough to get in the game and know when the cards just don't feel right and it's time to get ready to fight another day.
    14 May 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Unless you are willing to completely write-off everything TG said about revenue growth you would have to extrapolate that more sales will be coming from PbC than previously thought.

     

    LA sales will continue ramping up Q to Q as they did last year but PbC sales must pick up the slack and get us somewhere around 20M or 250% growth.
    14 May 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks iindelco. It was purely a financial decision without any other consideration. Since you've followed the APC's a while you know I like to gamble on poker. You said it best - the cards just didn't feel right and I acted on a gut feeling that had been churning for days now. If the sky falls I'll be waiting at the bottom for some cheap shares. If not, no big deal. I don't think I'll miss a huge gap up tomorrow.
    14 May 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3662) | Send Message
     
    BW, your prudence was wise. Also unexpected since you present yourself to be a gambler.

     

    I for one was off on my flooded call and now have scaled back my thoughts on what revenues for 2012 will be. I'm thinking TG may notch it back himself (a turn or three) on the call tomorrow and guidance will be completely removed or scaled back appropriately since we Axionistas tend to hang on every utterance.

     

    However, at the end of the day it's still about PbC and I hope we here good things on that front and I do hope to see 400% yoy growth in that area for the next 3-5 years =)
    14 May 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz> TG wrote it off himself when he said later said during the last CC that it might not be 300% and it might not be 200% but it will be significant.

     

    I'm not down on Axion and I am personally "all-in" but when I am managing other people's money I will not allow them exposure to risks that are unwarranted, particularly when my gut feel is that consecutive 300% YOY growth is simply to much to accept at face value from anyone without any actual contracts announced that could support that level of growth.
    14 May 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka> Good gamblers know when to fold or only make a small bet. LA sales slid backwards 47% Q1 2012 versus Q4 2012.

     

    Jakurtz> Continuing the flooded sales "initiative" is not the same as a signed contract and there has been no announcement. If you want to interpret the word "initiative" as a contract you can take that risk but I am not going to.
    14 May 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Bang,
    I'm sure your numbers are correct. 1st quarter sales of flooded lead acid batteries are up 85%. Pbc sales (assuming all other sales other than the flooded contract is PbC) is up 36%.

     

    I'm not sure if this allows the ramp that TG talked about. It could since the NS ordr is not included. But I am believing that my prediction of how Axion would reach 300% increase this year is closer to the truth than JPs estimate. He thought the flooded contract would get to 20 Million. I thought it might get to 12 million. I believe that PbC will contribute more this year than JP thinks. Two good thoughts. Either could be correct. Both could be mistaken.
    14 May 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Futurist> I want to plainly state that I think Axion is a good long term speculative investment. I think HTL has been in and out at times and I have certainly done the same. It is simple risk management to me, not the end of the story. While my remarks and actions might seem negative my positive long-term view of Axion is unchanged.

     

    I just don't buy the 300-400% growth story and I don't buy an increase in flooded battery sales since no new contract has been announced and lastly, since TG downgraded that statement himself, I think my actions are simple short-term prudence.
    14 May 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Good luck Bang. Every time I try something like that the stock moves up and out of range which results in me coming back in at a much higher PPS. Buy when I sell and sell when I buy <grin>...
    14 May 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    He used 400 and 300, not 300 and 200%.
    14 May 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Actually, iindelco, I respectfully disagree.

     

    For a while now I have thought of this as a waiting game.

     

    At some point those target markets are going to ripen.

     

    But none of us has a calendar that will tell us exactly when we'll be able to harvest all these fields we've been tending so long.

     

    So the FLA sales will feed the kids and pay the hired hands and keep the bankers at bay.

     

    The more FLA we sell the longer we can wait and the higher our credibility in the industry.

     

    Even FLA sales excite me.

     

    D
    14 May 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Copied from the transcript:

     

    Question: "When you might expect to break-even and what kind of sales level would be required to achieve that?"

     

    Tom Granville: "Okay. Our current projected break-even is in the fourth quarter of 2013, on an EBITDA basis. We have several fields that we are operating in and providing product for. It, of course, depends on the product mix and there’s no magic number that allows us to get there.

     

    Our projections though are across the board. As you can imagine, our margins are different for lead-acid products, for specialty lead-acid products, for PbC products and for systems - the integration of electronics. But, we have continued to grow year-over-year on a 300% to 400% basis and I don’t anticipate that it will be much different than that as we move forward into 2012 and 2013.

     

    Note that Lafferty (not sure I spelled that right) pointed out the transcript on Axion's website does not match what was actually said. The words "4th Quarter" was added to the word "2013" as were the words "on an EBITDA basis" referring to break-even. Modifying the transcript from what was actually said is disturbing to me.

     

    Later in the transcript the following exchange occurs: "Coordinator" Our next question will come from Matt Chambers, a private investor.

     

    M. Chambers: "Congratulations on the 400% revenue increase and did I hear you right when you said you kind of expected another 300% this year?"

     

    T. Granville: "Well, we’ve been going—we don’t have any reason not to believe that we’ll continue to increase revenues dramatically. We’ve done it in the past. We certainly plan on continuing down that road. They might not be 400%. They might not be 300%, but they will be significant. We anticipate that there will be a significant revenue increase in 2012."

     

    However, he did not say they may not be 200% so my recollection from my own comment was faulty and you are correct, he didn't say the word 200%.
    14 May 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "PS. Was anyone following the lead acid battery industry this year expecting huge growth in flooded given what came out of companies like JCI and Exide? We had mild winters in NA and Europe so they are working off the inventory stocked up that ran into soft sales"

     

    If anything I would say that I'm happy they still had sales and didn't lose money on the sales. Exide can't say that. With the mild winter I was worried that the flooded orders would be scaled even further back. As you said, not the reason we follow the company, but a revenue stream, even a small one, still gives them more time between capital gains and more time for the various OEMs to test the PbC demos to death.
    What I find interesting is that they said they were still making tweaks to their software and such on the PbC line, and had shipped their auto OEMs their latest products. My question is: does this mean they have to start testing over, or will these just be compared to what the OEMs have been testing all along to show that nothing has changed?
    14 May 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooooka,

     

    I don't know if I agree about TG scaling back on 2012 revenues. Surely he had to already know about the lower sales of flooded batteries for Q1 2012 vs Q4 for 2011 when he made the comments he did for the end of the year CC. It wasn't that long ago. But tomorrow will tell one way or the other.
    14 May 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Bang: I'm staying long ATM and getting longer as good opportunities arise. But you know I support your risk management.

     

    Here's the deal for me re 300%-400%. Even if he misses by half, we still have a good growth story. We have the continuation of FLA sales both for the specialty products (likely dependent on the economy to some degree) and the toll contract has been continued, as I highlight in a comment above. I believe there was a seasonal component (reinforced by Iindelco's comment) to the lowered toll sales.

     

    I now consider the interest by other RRs and (apparently) locomotive manufacturers. *If* there is strong interest that starts producing results this year, they will be at least buying nominal quantities of PbCs for testing and design purposes. If that includes a prototype build, >=1080 batteries each for slugs and appx. double for OTR.

     

    As the year progresses, results from the Viridity/PJM effort should start to bear fruit. What's the deployment of one additional PC do for us?

     

    Add Rosewater - should we expect anything prior to the September show? I don't know.

     

    Automotive: will late this year be the first order for production of s/s models for expanded field test and/or ...?

     

    Military: one installation in place for fixed buildings. More to follow? Other applications?

     

    Anyway, you can see where I'm headed. With so many irons in the fire and things percolating for so long, it's nearing the time when we have the unexpected.

     

    You know how it goes - lots of waiting and suddenly everything starts to pop.

     

    With the (apparent) honesty of the company in the past, the revenue projections coming late in the Q1 period where TGs visibility into near-term activity would be quite high, there's no reason to doubt that revenue growth will be substantial.

     

    Doubt is because we don't have the visibility TG does. So we guess, doubt, reexamine and talk ourselves into doubting - a good thing, certainly.

     

    But being h00m0n, we have to be alert to "overcompensation". It's just as easy to get too pessimistic as overzealous.

     

    All MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Lab Tech,
    Just speculation, but perhaps new shipments are illustrating consistent quality from automated production process.
    15 May 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    I get flooded. That biz has helped Axion in several important ways--training, cash flow, creation of a successful manuf'g track record, etc.

     

    But it's not why anybody is really here. It's the PbC. So I'm by far more interested in hearing from TG tomorrow about that. Not expecting a whole lot new there, just continuation of positive trends.

     

    As for the stock's reaction tomorrow early? Who knows? If someone was hanging their investment decision on a huge jump in Q1 flooded results, then it would be nice to see that dumb money hand the baton to someone else.
    14 May 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Concur with both you gents, we're here for the PbC of course.... but one nice thing that greatly increased flooded sales *would* mean is much more time until another capital raise would be needed, and that certainly has implications for the main business development as well as future share demand-supply dynamic and thus prices.
    14 May 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Guys, We're on the same page.

     

    One exception though 86. I'm looking for the need for a capital raise sooner rather than later. I have little interest in hobbling along as long as I can until another thinning at 30 or 40 cents. We need to be hungry for money sooner rather than later with some cattle in the yard, a big ole knife in hand and the grill fired up.

     

    I want them to need money soon to finish building out the manufacturing system that they have and to order more capacity and get it certified. The next capital raise better not be held in the same air as the last one. And all signals are that it will not. But it's not in the bag.
    14 May 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    good point iindelco, with one last observation: all money coming in the door is the same color green... ;)
    14 May 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    86, Yes and no. Growing a manufacturing plant and most businesses needs to be handled like step functions at certain times vs a ramp function all the way. The reason being that there are large added costs that come with certain events. An example would be starting up a second shift. You don't want to do it if you only see 10 or 20 % line utilization for a long period.
    14 May 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Last post for awhile. If you take the flooded sales and subtract them from the total sales you get a number that is pretty much PBC sales. This number is about the magnitude of the NS999 battery delivery. But we can pretty much guess that none of the batteries went to NS because their need to add batteries for testing was done. So these are all batteries that have gone to other parties (perhaps minus the small string Navy contract). Interesting because we have an approximation of the number of batteries ordered to support other testing.
    14 May 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Now THAT'S positive iindelco! Thanks!
    14 May 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    My head hurts ... the CC can't come soon enough.
    14 May 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Why? So everyone has new words to flip upside-down and inside-out and see how many ways from Sunday they can be interpreted? 300 to 400 just became 200 to 300, and anticipating "significant" and "dramatic" growth just got treated like "a little" and "some".

     

    It is fascinating and I do like to watch.
    14 May 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    One more thing to ponder Bang, And given your background you know this.

     

    Think about the date when we had the last cc for year end 2011. Now think about running a mfg plant. Do they only get calls daily to send XYZ batteries of model a, and .........

     

    Heck no. They have forecast volumes from the customer. You can't run an industrial operation that's getting parts from the far ends of the earth to support a whim in a week. Sooooooo. So TG knew right where he was going to come in for Q1 when we had the last cc. There are no surprises in the Q1 that impact his statements.

     

    BTW, His forecast was for the year not month by month. Not 200 or 300 or 400, parabolic growth, ramped growth, sinusoidal growth...... lol.

     

    OK, No mas! Ya'll enjoy the balance of your (insert time of day here). Darn Axionistas come from all over the place.
    14 May 2012, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    I'm with ya, jk. Been very interesting reading. Nice to read some factual posts, PLUS take the temperature of a few other retail investors. I read "jumping off bldgs" posts late last year, then "trains' leaving the station" posts when in the 60's in Jan. I'd say that the temperature has been a pretty good contrarian indicator in the 6 months I've been following this board.
    14 May 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    iindelco. Just admit it... you too are hooked! Personally, I think your timing in joining us is perfect and welcomed by most. Just post to your hearts content (I already have 3 new bookmarks) and don't think another thought about it <smile>...
    14 May 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Another reason why I will be interested to hear how many manufacturing employees Axion has hired since December 31, 2011.
    14 May 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Agreed iindelco, his forecast was for the year, not the quarter. So to reach $32M or 300% growth by the end of 2102 he needs some dang good quarters the rest of the year. JP's Q1 estimate a short while ago and the numbers required to hit 300% for the year was:

     

    "The $4.4 million is my estimate of the revenue progression that will be required to take Axion from $8 million in 2011 revenue to $32 million in 2012 revenue.

     

    The revenue breakdown for Q4-11, as near as I can calculate it, was $2.56 million in flooded sales, $243,000 in PbC and other and $48,000 in service.

     

    My estimate for Q1-12 is $3.4 million in flooded sales, $750,000 in PbC and other and $250,000 in service. These figures and the allocations to the various revenue classes are only a guess and may be way off the mark in any number of respects, but I don't believe Tom would have forecast a 300% YoY growth for 2012 unless he was very confident he'd achieve it."
    14 May 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz> I hope you saw my correction above. "However, he did not say they may not be 200% so my recollection from my own comment was faulty and you are correct, he didn't say the word 200%."
    14 May 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I'm assuming those batteries are the ones they are referring to in the Q1 where they say they have shipped the latest version of their PbC coming off the automated line for OEM SS testing. As I said above, the big question for me is whether this is for new OEMs, or for BMW to compare to the ones they've already had in vehicles for some period of time.
    14 May 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hey Tim, Since you initiated the dialog I'll now feel free to ask. No It's none of my business. I have a brother and a nephew out of 1249 in Syracuse, NY which is where my dad worked.

     

    Anyway, Thanks for the welcome.
    15 May 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,

     

    I thought about the PbC figure and the flooded battery contract number, also. I liked what I saw until I remembered that specialty batteries (racing) and other direct sales of LAB are also included. Since I don't know how to separate those out of the equation I am hesitant to make a blanket statement of PbC sales.

     

    I did note that inventory levels are about the same as last year. To me that indicates everything is about the same. A good quarter, nothing spectacular.
    15 May 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, Morning.

     

    You are correct. I missed that as I completely forgot about their classic series batteries.
    15 May 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hey Bang, Did he say 300%?! LOL

     

    One other thing to ponder. If they sell a power cube doesn't all the other stuff packed in the cube count as sales. There are some pretty costly items that they pack in those units that are part of the sales number.
    15 May 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Historically, the classic series was an incidental product line that was good for $125,000 to $150,000 per quarter. I don't know whether that number has fallen off in recent years or not, but I can't imagine that it's climbed much.
    15 May 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    BTW, I wasn't really clear. I was wondering where you served your tenure. You seem to get around!
    15 May 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Cousins and uncles in 659, Medford, OR. Most of my career in the Northwest with a pretty even split between transmission and distribution with a good portion of our work done at the end of an orange stick with hooks and a belt. How things have changed...
    15 May 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Helps to more accurately size the PBC sales. So maybe it's more in the direction of 60-70% of those required to support the NS999.

     

    Hey, You have to use the information you've got. Speculating, Isn't it grand.

     

    Beats reading the posts of our friend Tim Turner who's trying to give us all salvation.
    15 May 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I assume he's a nameless, faceless refugee from Brand X who's grown tired of talking to himself and doesn't understand that SA is an entirely different world.
    15 May 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    He is. I stopped by brand x for the first time in awhile yesterday and there was a poster with the exact same writing style delivering the same message.

     

    BTW, I looked at the prior troll "bump useless message to the top" and by some miracle the troll that posted in the same time frame as Zoro Tim Turner had the exact same avatar. Priceless. So yes, the SA concentrator board has a shared troll virus with brand x.
    15 May 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    No, I think all the trolls just happen to bump into each other at the Ranger's ice-rink, trade investing tips on apple, silver and cisco, then come back here and brand x to let the world know of their brilliance.

     

    Sometimes I think they are fun but only like the red-headed boy at the family reunion who throws tantrums, plays pranks but then needs to be bent over a knee, spanked on the ass and locked in a crib with a pacifier.
    15 May 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    I knew exactly what you were talking about. Just a little late to the message board this morning...
    15 May 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    We are VERY fortunate aren't we. Just being near such brilliance makes one feel blessed.

     

    BTW, If you're going to listen to the cc tune in early. They are playing some fine classic music. I'm not very cultured so with that being said I'll take a guess as to the title. "Music to calm the anxious Axionista".
    15 May 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You have to admit, it beats Barry Manilow.

     

    I always thought Bobby McPherrin would be a good choice for the music on hold before a quarterly earnings call – http://bit.ly/gHKjXA
    15 May 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hallelujah to that.
    15 May 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I'm waiting for ride of the valkries---then we'll know something's up. ;)
    15 May 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That would be fun indeed, although I kinda like Iindelco's suggestion that the Hallelujah Chorus would be a nice intro too.
    15 May 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    ~~~~We've got the battery that's right for you~~~~
    ~~~~Selling right now to a big company, or two~~~~

     

    ~~~~Don't worry~~~~
    ~~~~Be Happy~~~~

     

    ~~~~The government is liking what we do~~~~
    ~~~~Big interests expanding beyond more than a few~~~~

     

    ~~~~Don't worry~~~~
    ~~~~Be happy~~~~

     

    ~~~~Sales will come...when they do~~~~
    ~~~~Shareholders will reap, no more faces blue~~~~

     

    ~~~~Don't worry~~~~
    ~~~~Be Happy~~~~
    15 May 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    so we can add ARM (axionista reggae ministrel) to your list of titles and accomplishments. maybe not as distinguished as KBE, but it's right up there
    15 May 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Ahh...Metro, I just may be tapping the energy from tripleblack's amazing drawing of a crooning minstrel that I hung over my study fireplace last week.

     

    Truly a marvel to look at.
    15 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Actually, I think this here embodies all the triumph and exaltation that will one day be ours...

     

    http://bit.ly/JGS3qZ

     

    And be entirely fitting...Just so after so long a journey of exile.
    15 May 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    JAK

     

    Feeling good right now?? I was concerned with the financials, sold some shares yesterday, and i kinda think i did the right move..

     

    .375 and falling...
    15 May 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    MAP,

     

    I really don't know or care or think about whether you are the other guys who sole purpose is to insult and disrespect the posters here.

     

    I kind of gained some respect for you recently because I feel like you have, MAP, have respected the group and posters more. Speak your mind and move on, right.

     

    The other part of your personality or friend who just so happens to like Apple, silver and the Rangers as well is frankly just an a-hole.

     

    I appreciate *MAP's* views and negativity and have no problem with them and I don't think anyone else does either. Our strategy is different, you have yours and I have mine. Consequently when it was climbing in Jan. you bought in during the climb and then got burned. I buy in at the lows and don't wait for the climb and chase it perhaps in the end we will both come out the same.

     

    You can think of this place as a Ranger's home game, if you go and cheer for the opposing team you better have a stiff spine and good facts because there is no doubt you are going to get razzed by the 100's of other people who do not agree with your view.

     

    Have a good one.
    15 May 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    JAK

     

    I have never insulted someone first. Now that MAYA has put to bed who i am maybe the insults will slow down.

     

    Having said that this is getting old, and i have better things to do then to defend myself constantly. So i hope you understand . I only point out when i think people might misunderstand or start guessing .

     

    Appreciate you advice, and opinion as well. Have a good day.
    15 May 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Something to keep in mind. The 2011 EOY CC came after the close of Q1 2012. My suspicion (now that the 10Q has been released) is that whatever got TG fired up happened after the close of Q1. If we dip, I am adding...
    14 May 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Same here. Sold off my JCI stock the other day when it pushed close to $33/share so have some more dry powder to play with. Still trying to get my average price/share down a little between my three different accounts.
    14 May 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    iindelco > "They have forecast volumes from the customer. You can't run an industrial operation that's getting parts from the far ends of the earth to support a whim in a week. Sooooooo. So TG knew right where he was going to come in for Q1 when we had the last cc. There are no surprises in the Q1 that impact his statements. "

     

    Should be given the date of that CC, but then maybe not. For myself, going forward from here, where Axion performance is concerned I will believe only hard numbers and those developments confirmed by concrete third party information.
    14 May 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Listent to Iindelco, he is right, they need to get the next capital raise sooner rather than later and get the next gen line up and certified.

     

    The numbers today is/should have been expected. The read between the lines are what Iindelco posted on possible PbC sales to "other parties".

     

    this year and probably next year is back end loaded with hopefully some new partners and marketing agreements along the way to fuel 2013 growth.

     

    Good job BW,,,you did the right thing for you. You also did your homework before making a decision. The cc call tomorrow could be interesting, but I don't expect much because of the short time since the last one. I am sorta like wake me up Oct. 1 .... or when more sales orders like the NS order are announced.
    14 May 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The thing that's intrigued me for the last few quarters is inventory levels, and more importantly the spread between inventories on the one hand and accounts payable on the other.

     

    If the inventories were primarily to support the flooded contract, I'd expect to see a close correlation between inventories and accounts payable. The spread between the two figures was about $2.2 million at December 31 and $1.9 million at March 31, which tells me that Axion is carrying a pile of inventory for its own purposes.

     

    It's also worth noting that work in process inventory increased by 1/3 between December 31 and March 31. It's unlikely that they would have started working on the NS order before the end of March, so I see the WIP ramp as boding well for Q2 sales.
    15 May 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    So...

     

    Some think the quarterly report won't be gangbusters...
    And therefore some are selling.

     

    Question: What is the fundamental value of this company?

     

    If we think the company has disruptive technology and is in late stage testing with multiple partners on multiple platforms (something that seems validated often in these concentrators), how should that be valued?

     

    Is it valued based on a conference call?

     

    Do we think the shares are below value because of a Special Situation or fairly valued because they will have another round of financing with people flipping out at 20% gains.

     

    I'm just confused on the sudden turn in logic which seems predicated more on fatigue than rationale.

     

    Of course, I figure the company is undervalued, the downside risk from here is low, the likelihood that the central banks of the world are going to have a liquidity fest soon which will prop up speculative companies good and bad is high, and that there are many irons in the fire that lend themselves to creating value.

     

    I'm probably just tired and wrong.
    15 May 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    You may be tired but you're right on. This is a great product that creates value in many diverse applications. The management team is top notch.

     

    IMO, way too much energy is being put into "why hasn't this or that happened". Back off, relax, trust the product, and trust the management team. If that didn't work for me, I'd be looking for alternative opportunities.
    15 May 2012, 02:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1284) | Send Message
     
    well put.
    15 May 2012, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    co-sign.
    15 May 2012, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Nah, maybe tired. But I doubt you're wrong. And I rather like the sound of a liquidity fest. Launch the helos!
    15 May 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... No, no, no ... a liquidity fest is not arouood thing. The supply side has already been pumped full of $26T of income and if you look at the velocity of money through the world economy you'll see it hasn't gone anywhere useful. More will not help.
    15 May 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you on this one, DRich. Even if the QE and liquidity flood were the right thing to do, the method/instrument being used is just wrong.

     

    Should an analogy be needed, I remember an old deep south story about a poor farmer worried about hard times, and wondering what to do. He consulted the wisest old soothsayer in the hills, and that worthy told him to plant his fields to feed his family first, and to prepare for even harder times ahead.

     

    The farmer followed this advice, planting every acre he had and working feverishly to prepare for a tough harvest season. Sure enough, when he brought in his crop food was scarce and his family starving...

     

    And then he discovered that all that cotton he grew was worthless.

     

    The old soothsayer had meant for him to plant food crops, and he had planted a cash crop with no ready market.

     

    Warehousing trillions in zombie banks is a bad idea. Always was.
    15 May 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    As a point of clarification, I'm not in favor of the massive liquidity the central banks will pump into the world's economies. I just expect they will. I have seen nothing indicating anyone is remotely serious about any other economic solutions.
    15 May 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I never doubted you for a second, Jon.

     

    As investors we have to work with real world events. Including political factors (including those we may not feel are a bright idea) which just go with the territory.
    15 May 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Jon Springer ... My opinion, the massive liquidity HAS NOT been pumped into the economies of the world and that is the problem. Debt issued to raise reserves deposited back to the source of the debt to be paid interest. Now is that an economy? Other than supporting the value of assets held by a very few people and aren't market valued, all this liquidity hasn't helped and the commoners get the privilege of paying for it. The PIIGS have been slow to learn this lesson but they are ahead of the rest. Failure just has to be a part of Capitalism or it isn't anything more than a criminal enterprise. Debt as wealth creation only works when failure is so total the players remain the same.
    15 May 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I think any disagreement between us on opinions about global liquidity/debt is negligible.

     

    I concur most regular citizens are being hurt in this process.

     

    "Failure has to be a part of capitalism" - agree heartily. However, that is not the system we are operating under for the last generation.
    15 May 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Questions & clarifications that i want to see on the cc today:

     

    1. 300% growth on track for 2012 and 3013, or not? TG you should not have said it if you don't have it in pocket by now.

     

    2. Last cc you said you were happy with the current production line and could order the new one and have it running in a "couple of months"...is this true or is there still production issues holding back sales and mass adoption?

     

    3. Can you produce PbC in mass quantities TODAY or not? yes or no
    4. IF #3 is no, when WILL you be able to produce them in quantity?
    5. Explain the increase in employees from 60 to 90?
    6. Explain the inventory issues JP mentioned
    15 May 2012, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Lucky #7 question to my above list:

     

    7. The latest batteries that you just shipped, are these the batteries ran on the "fully automated line" for "final" testing before the OEM's place large orders for PbC? yes or no on the "final" part.
    15 May 2012, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Wow LT,

     

    What don't you simply ask him if he is a liar?

     

    As a shareholder who respects management and my board of directors I find nothing wrong with asking if past statements of revenue growth are still intact. However ,I doubt that I would make the questions like an interrogation.

     

    You know the answer to production of PbCs. The Gen2 line is up and running well. Axion can produce about 125 PbCs per day worth of electrodes on that line if needed. That level is enough for 31 locomotives or 30 PowerCubes or 30,000 S/S automobiles. It is over $7 Million in PbC sales. All of this without ordering a Gen 3 line.
    I don't know if you consider that mass production or not. You would have to define the term. I am satisfied that we have the capacity to meet orders for this years PbC sales. If a major order ( an order for current year delivery of more than we can handle) comes in for late year delivery then we can order a Gen 3 line to handle it. We have the PbC production ability to make a major order if needed.

     

    I am not sure why your hung up on the electrode line?
    15 May 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    You answered your own question with this quote:"It is over $7 Million in PbC sales. All of this without ordering a Gen 3 line."

     

    He can't grow revenues 300% with current production, much less $100 million next year.

     

    Every time a new form comes out it carries the statement "we need to continue to improve our production capability"

     

    Futurist, you guys need to quit being so defensive on every statement by TG or others posts here. You were expecting a lot more revenue this quarter than was reported and no one has bashed you for your incorrect assessments.
    Personally, I want to know what the current production capacity is. If I order 30,000 PbC batteries can he deliver them in 30 days? Whenever TG orders the new line, it will be at least 6 months before it puts money in the bank. It must be ordered, installed, and certified before product is shipped....that means if he orders it Jan.1, 2013 then we see real revenue in June/July. That only leaves him 6 months to do a years worth of business.

     

    that Toll contract really doesn't mean squat, TG bid it at almost cost to learn how to build a battery & train employees to build batteries & electrodes. It has not and will not keep the company afloat or reduce the need for new capital raises.

     

    I think the story is still intact, but I do want confirmation on 300% growth which is $20-30 million in revenue this year and then $100 million in 2013.

     

    Quite frankly, if we are in for another 2 years of $10 million in revenue, then I am out of here. Defend all you want, but just answer the questions clearly.
    15 May 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    5/14:
    Min. Pr: 0.4100, Max Pr: 0.4280, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.4126
    # Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, AvTrSz: 6326
    # Buys, Shares: 21, 156290 and # Sells, Shares: 22, 119544
    Buy:Sell 1.31:1

     

    It's good to see daily short sales continuing to move towards more normal. Maybe the dregs of the flippers are about gone and we start to see selling pressure abate.

     

    That is unless all the Axionistas talk themselves into a blue funk.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Catfish investors are indiscriminate predators...

     

    Still lurking and will snap up blue funk shares as quick as flipped out shares...

     

    But I suspect any drop won't be much, penny maybe two, if that.

     

    I also believe there is a good chance of a surprise or two in the CC that could be a game changer...
    15 May 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783)