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  • Axion Power Concentrator 100: May 15, 2012: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012 278 comments
    May 15, 2012 10:17 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012

    NEW CASTLE, Pa., May 15, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International Inc (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead­-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2012.

    Net product sales increased to $1.8 million in 2012 from $1.0 million in 2011. Net product sales increased in 2012 compared to 2011 primarily due to the sale of specialty lead-acid batteries to a single customer who will sell these batteries under their brand, as well as carry the cost of inventory and provide the raw materials for production of these batteries.

    Net loss for 2012 was $2.3 million or $0.02 per basic and diluted share compared to $2.4 million or $0.03 per basic and diluted share in 2011.

    Excluding the cash inflow of approximately $8.6 million in net proceeds from our sale of common stock in the first quarter of 2012, our net cash flow for 2012 was negative $2.1 million compared to a negative $2.9 million in 2011, a reduction in net cash burn of $0.8 million.

    Other highlights of our first quarter of 2012 include:

    • In January, we were awarded a purchase order from Siltek, Inc. confirming their participation in a Zero Energy Building for the US Navy in the Washington D.C. Naval Yard. Axion will be providing an array of its PbC batteries, system electronics and battery management system that together will serve as an example of Axion's "mini-cube".
    • Also in January, we appointed Vani Dantam to the new position of Senior Vice President/Business Development, Sales and Marketing. Vani brings to our company an extraordinary background that includes broad battery industry experience and proven leadership. He has expressed his confidence and personal commitment to the commercialization of our PbC Technology.
    • In February, we successfully concluded a funding of approximately $8.6 million in net proceeds from the sale of our common stock. The proceeds from this raise will be used for the near term funding of working capital, capital expenditures and corporate operations.
    • Last year we announced that we had received a series of orders for the production and immediate delivery of specialty flooded lead-acid batteries. This February we received guidance that the purchase orders are expected to continue at least through the end of 2012. The batteries are branded by the purchaser, and the purchaser will provide all raw materials and the carrying cost for the continuing order.
    • In April, in an event subsequent to the end of the quarter, we received an initial large scale order from Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NS) for PbC batteries for use in a battery powered locomotive. This $400K purchase order is part of an overall total purchase order of $475K. This total purchase order will be shipped and deployed in the next 90 - 120 days. To date, this is the largest single PbC battery order that we have received.

    Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "It has only been about six weeks since our last earnings release, but the first quarter of 2012 has been a busy one. I have previously mentioned that the road to PbC commercialization has been longer than we anticipated, but that we were finding the market opportunities, for our PbC product applications, larger and more diverse than we had initially anticipated. The first quarter of 2012 provided further proof of the market diversity for our technology. We have received numerous new requests for proposals and quotations, more than half of which have come from new markets for our product. And although these are new opportunities in new markets, it is the historical advantage of PbC batteries that makes the equation work. The old standby values that are as important today as they ever were and include: high charge acceptance; fast recharge rate; voltage consistency in large string applications; superior 'extreme temperature' performance; and low cost on a per cycle basis."

    Granville concluded, "when you add these advantages to the historical PbC attributes - ease of manufacture on existing equipment worldwide; high rate of recyclability (99.1%) and the strong safety record of lead-acid batteries, it is easy to see why we feel our technology will be one of the ultimate winners in numerous energy storage market applications. And it is easy to see why so many potential customers agree with that premise."

    Source: PR Newswire (http://s.tt/1bRov)

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated May 15th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Century Concentrator Comments -- 18,080 comments through 99 concentrators since July 21, 2011.

    (updated May 15th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (278)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last post from Jakurtz:

     

    Right-on Bang. Your last paragraph says it. Without the 300-400% projection everyone would have been very happy today with a nearly 200% increase over Q-1 2011, the NS order having gone through this Q and solid progress with multiple new clients in new markets as they make steps in the transition from R&D to commercial sales.

     

    I still believe the projection is good and TG knows why he said it, I think it is our faulty speculation on the "How" that is the real problem.
    15 May 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to the Axion Power Concentrator.

     

    100 APC's! And going and growing ever more!

     

    Thanks to all the hosts for doing a bang up job!

     

    ####

     

    Great call on the 100th forecast, Futurist.
    15 May 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Maya-

     

    I tip my hat to Axion Power Host for doing a great job of keeping us on the track. But with appreciation I bow to you for creating this unique and intellectually vibrant forum. I'm not aware of another quite like it. Thank you!

     

    WDD
    15 May 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I too want to congratulate Maya for starting something special, and then having enough faith in the Concentrator concept to turn control over to the APH group which has done a yeoman's job.
    15 May 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John and WDD.

     

    This blog might just be better than any reality TV show. The emotions, the passions, the intellect, the undesirables...it's got it all.

     

    Back into my easy chair I go. With exception to time frame, nothing has changed my belief that we all own a stock that will rise by 1000%.
    15 May 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    ~ $420 pps?

     

    From your lips to God's ear, may it be so.

     

    (Visions of litter-bearers....)

     

    ;-)
    15 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    *ahem*
    1000% is 10X or $4.20 pps.

     

    Don't get carried away by those imaginary litter-bearers!
    15 May 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "Don't get carried away by those imaginary litter-bearers! "

     

    What's the purpose of litter-bearers if not to get carried away? :-))

     

    <ducks flying shoes on that one>

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Oops...the difference between multiplying by a thousand and multiplying by a thousand percent. That's why they won't let me wear green eyeshades. My embarrassed ego says delete the post, but I like your closing pun so much I have to leave it be.

     

    (I liked $420 a lot better.)
    15 May 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Doubling of new opportunities!

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    "Doubling of new opportunities!"

     

    :-) If we get enough birds int he bushes we might be able to bag one with a BB gun.
    15 May 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The problem of course is that most of the birds are pretty big and a BB gun would only irritate them.
    16 May 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Any Axionista with family or friends in Munich? It occurs to me there are probably only two-degrees of separation between us and the driver of a police car or taxicab with a demo-PbC under the hood. A first-hand report from a user may only be two phone calls away.

     

    Just for fun.
    15 May 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    WDD, Pretty sure TG indicated that the next step would be fleet testing. If I heard that correctly then the opportunity to hunt one down in any fashion would be non existent because they don't yet exist. I would also venture a guess that if they did have them out in fleets access would be pretty tightly controlled.

     

    Snooping on large industrial concerns is very difficult. It's probably easiest via computer by people much smarter than I in the area via illegal means. For the rest of us it is darn near impossible.
    15 May 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco-

     

    You put your finger on one of the two items from the CC that had me scratching my head. Unfortunately I was following on-line and thus could not ask a clarifying question.

     

    What's with this "next step"? My understanding was akin to that expressed by Metroneanderthal a ways further on in this edition--that BMW already had a gaggle of test cars on the road, and I got that police car and taxicab notion from some Concentrator way back. Lafferty rightly points out that we might need to nail down our terminology--"test vehicles" versus "fleet testing". Of course, once the PbC really is out on the streets of Munich, it will be difficult to control the information; even if they bolt the hood shut the hack behind the wheel will still have an opinion of how well that Stop-Start system seems to be working.

     

    The other dissonant part was on current number of employees (Stephan's question?). The Axion website still says 50-something, but in recent Concentrators I think we were speculating on 90 or so. Unfortunately, the question as phrased (no criticism intended) sought a comparison of current number to that from the turn of the year without nailing down the actual number, and TG responded "the same". If we had a spate of hiring in November, then his answer is correct. What we really want to know is how many employees right now?

     

    All in all, I think my long-term investment dramatically remains a long-term investment. (Man, if it wasn't for the interesting conversation I wouldn't even stop by here--its like a receding glacier watching the drying paint watching the battery refuse to die.)
    15 May 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    90 employees was in the SEC filing.

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    WDD -

     

    HTL is correct. The number was at 90 total employees as of December 31, 2011. Generally, I am still trying to figure out the right balance between trying to pin management down in CC questions versus giving them some room to run with my question.

     

    I was hoping he would take the bait and be able say that the headcount was currently at 100 or 105. In my mind, that would have helped back up his excitement on the last call about increasing sales without having to give any revenue guidance whatsoever.

     

    Unfortunately, he did not take the bait and I am still unsure of how proper it is to then shift into a more aggressive posture in such a forum.
    15 May 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    WDD, I'm in the same boat as you are concerning the test phase BMW is in. I need to go back and do some research on the wording that TG used in the past. Perhaps he used incorrect wording or I don't remember well. I could have sworn he used the term "fleet" before instead of the word "test" or "test mules".

     

    I am well aware of the meaning of the terms since I've spent a good deal of time in the industry in areas supporting R&D as well as concept, costing and launching programs so I certainly understand what Axion is going through in automotive.

     

    On the staffing side I'm glad they have the flooded business for another year but beyond keeping/training their staff and covering some of the cost of those people and the plant being ready to make PBC I'm not really that interested in dissecting it any further. It's important but it doesn't really get much more interesting to me even if it doubles other than they manage it well if they choose to do so. It's PBC or bust and it better be clearer where they are this year before they raise funds again.

     

    Automotive always takes toooooo long but believe me, it doesn't feel that way when you have to produce the deliverables.
    15 May 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Yes, this was the most disappointing revelation from the CC. The fact that they haven't actually "started" fleet testing yet but have only been testing in individual vehicles or at most a small number of them. In my mind that pushes any kind of auto roll out to at least 2014. Is that your opinion as well? You've always had a good feel for how long fleet testing goes, any insight considering that it hasn't started yet?
    15 May 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, If I go all the way back to my original thoughts on timing for automotive 2014 model year was pretty much the earliest I could see for an initial automotive app. If that were to happen they'd need a partner pretty much this year. Oh, And they need to freeze their design pretty darn soon as well. It's getting pretty tight. for this timing. Fleet vehicles should be very very close to representative product/process.

     

    I thought that some low volume app a year earlier might be a long shot but that's pretty much out of the question now.
    15 May 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Tom has pretty consistently spoken of 2013 as the year for automotive and until he says something different I'm inclined to stay with that estimate even if my inner pessimist wants to push it back.
    16 May 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Yep, 2014 model year is late 2013 so even through my etched window I can see where his hopes lie. It sure is looking tougher as time passes though. This could change quite a bit with the right hand shakes. Of coarse the last statement needs to be tempered by the foggy window point as well.
    16 May 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3606) | Send Message
     
    It seems the guidance thing is completely off the table now. The 300-400% thing looks to remain a mystery going forward. At least it will keep all us Axionistas chirping. The saga continues.
    15 May 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    "We're buckling our seat belt" sure sounded better than "We're tightening our belt."
    15 May 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • sonrisa777
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    What I understand of what TG said is that, moneywise, the ball just isn't in their court. Like us, they're stuck waiting for the customers to buy... Maybe it will be soon and maybe it won't. There's no way of knowing. That's why I'm staying invested just not to take any chances.
    15 May 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    You summed it up very well there sonrisa.
    15 May 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    son/48

     

    Agreed....announcement or supply/demand ratio are the movers on the table...
    15 May 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I learned all I wanted to know, namely there is an agreement between their flooded LA battery customer to continue using Axion's services through 2012 and the volume will simply depend on the individual PO's issued. As for NS purchases beyond the current order any announcements will come from NS and not Axion which makes sense to me. The rest will come when it comes.
    15 May 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    If there is an extra cosmic blaster available I would like one personally for vaporizing some of our less desirable guests.
    15 May 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Sights are now set 5 weeks out on the annual conference.
    15 May 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    I hope that by the time of the annual meeting the management team has a better answer to the question "What does success look like 6 months out -- 12 months out." The question regarding general milestones was asked by the analyst in the last call and I asked it again in this call. No one is asking for financial guidance or proprietary details -- just some general performance measures for the management team. Mentioning 4 market opportunity areas does not cut it for me (although I will say that rolling out the residential cube in September does come the closest to one milestone.) As a shareholder I want to know in general terms what constitutes (A+) performance vs. (C-) for the management team. In other words, what are the general accomplishments shareholders can expect from the AXPW team.
    15 May 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Mercy his best cut at answering that question in the last conference call was NS, some Powercube sales, plus the now inoperative 300%-400% 2012 and 2013 remark. NS's order did come through but nothing yet on Powercubes. I have a feeling there is a possibility NS may have taken Axion to the woodshed over the 50-75 locomotive orders over the next five years remark since TG emphasized any future NS buys will be announced by NS.
    15 May 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    I agree. However, I am caught in a dilemma b/c I hate it when targets are missed and I understand that he felt burned by predicting NS a couple times too early.

     

    If he has absolutely no control over the timing of the contract, does that really grade his performance if a development does not come by his targeted date?
    15 May 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, I agree in many respects.

     

    It would have been nice if, just as with any *major* project, he would share either accomplishments that signified "mileposts" or time-lines they were shooting for or both.

     

    However, being in a transition stage with so much completely out of their control I think I would've avoided giving such mileposts too.

     

    No use throwing myself on the grill just waiting for someone to torch me when some date was missed because a *customer* failed to meet their own initial goals (a la NSC).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Based on what TG just said, I don't expect a change in disclosure approach for a long time, and I'm fine with that. I was very surprised 6 weeks ago when TG gave guidance. Most unusual in my experience, anyway, with micro caps, especially ones that deal with giants. Now he's just back to the standard approach.

     

    As TG said, in response to the back-door questions to get guidance, "that is a loaded question."
    15 May 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I agree with your point concerning the level of control TG has over timing. You may recall that in the past he has tried to offer incentives to pull ahead orders and saw no progress. I can understand that with NS. After the first failure on the NS999 and given the same players are carrying the torch for the rehab., I can't see them being motivated by anything other than extreme caution to make sure they didn't repeat former mistakes.
    15 May 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I agree, Bang, but milestones do not require anyone to divulge names or proprietary details. Here I'll provide some imaginary milestones as examples for a 6-12 month period:

     

    1) Target and commence sales cycle discussions with 20 new potential AXPW partners;

     

    2) Advance 2 new products to pre-commercialization/... stage

     

    3) Acquire 1 more purchase order from existing OEM/third party relationship in progress;

     

    4) Roll-out 3 new PbC applications (complete with product specs, pricing, distribution, and manufacturing-ready state);

     

    etc. etc.

     

    These example are illustrative (rather than realistic) of how management can earn more confidence with long-term investors who just need to know how to gauge success for AXPW. Even hearing what Mr. Dantam's general priorities are -- would help. If the milestones are achieved the share price will follow.
    15 May 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    re- the 300% - 400% revenue growth projection, iindelco shared a thought on APC99 that bears keeping in mind. In recent CC, TG has talked about revenues across all activities/product lines. Those product lines, and revenues derived therefrom, include PC systems of which PbC batteries are likely a minority component. Assuming a PC costs ~$1 mil. and contains 1,080 PbCs, eight PC sales would amount to 100% of 2011 AXPW revenues but include only ~$3.2 mil. for PbC batteries (NS P.O. for $400,000 X 8).

     

    "The woodshed" scenario strikes me as quite possible and delay of further orders is not beyond question.
    15 May 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    Very understandable that you "hate it when targets are missed." It's always tough in any public company to be held accountable. The goal should be to outline what you think you can deliver -- but not outlining much is a problem. OK, I have said enough about my personal point of view.

     

    mj
    15 May 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    This seems to be the same with auto. TG's comment that Axion was working on "their schedule" (ie auto OEMs) and that Axion has "completed testing on this end" for the PbC makes it clear that they've done all they can do to satisfy the auto OEMs on their end and now they are just waiting for them to "start" fleet testing and then get back to Axion. Back to watching paint drying time.
    15 May 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, Yep that's the way it is. You have to realize the auto company is testing any number of things and the team that would be working on the PBC battery would have to get in line with all the other teams looking to test their systems/components. Plus some teams components overlap other teams components because they function as a system. For PBC this would be a new BMS, perhaps new dynamic brake system, perhaps new starter/generator etc. And if any of your unknown partners falls behind you go with them. OH, And you also have the platform team managing risk and they might decide they are putting too much technology on a core vehicle that can't afford the risk. They might just say no and you're off to see if your other teams are going to support your teams proposal for inclusion.

     

    Many other things going on but as you can see what's happening on the vehicle platform level really adds delays to the numerous suppliers looking to launch with the vehicle. And there are a ton of considerations that are way outside of the control for the supplier. You're really in the rumble seat along for the ride knowing you can fall out on to the road at any time even if you do everything perfect to stay seated.
    15 May 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, i agree. without an outline how are investors to measure company progress.
    15 May 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Good thing we brought our seat belts. Might want to grab an airsick bag or two as well. The ride is going to be bumpy.
    15 May 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Almost always is with micro caps. Most crash. And the ones that do finally get up to speed have plenty of bags to empty.

     

    Axion is a flea trying to get a bunch of elephants to dance with them. Hey one just extended his trunk to help us aboard. Let's hope we don't give him a reason to sneeze.
    15 May 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    How do you measure managment of a bio-tech in R&D testing their drug through phase trials?

     

    We have no traditional methods of gauging progress, can't do it by revenue, can't do it by profits, you can only do it by the fact they are still standing and still moving forward with tests of old OEM's and initiating tests with new OEM's based on the success of the existing testing. It is the nature of the beast on this one guys. That is why the risk is high and so is the reward.

     

    I know we are all tired of hearing the word testing but that is the stage this company is at.
    15 May 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I'd say if after several years a large railroad stops testing everyone else's batteries, and starts buying yours, that's maybe a good sign.
    15 May 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Except for Norfolk. That proof of concept testing is done. Implemetation is commencing as we speak...err, write.
    15 May 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion is in an odd business where success is frequently measured by still being in the game with customers who would prefer that you say nothing. There have been some pretty major successes over the last couple years but many of them have been kept under wraps because of the customer's insistence on controlling the flow of information.

     

    The worst thing the guys could do is establish criteria and measurement dates, and then say "we met all our goals but can't talk about any of them." Were I in Tom's shoes, I'd hate to be pinned down to specifics when I knew there was a good chance I'd be precluded from talking about my accomplishments.

     

    For the last eight years I've been awaiting news of the first bird in the hand. We got that news a couple weeks ago in a multi-billion dollar niche that's tried the competitors and selected the PbC. That fact doesn't give me much of a feel for timing, but it certainly increases my confidence that the others will follow suit in their own sweet time.
    16 May 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    well jak, it is still possible to lay out expectations. for example: what are the markets they are developing? how are they spending resources to develop those markets? then a CC call is about measuring progress towards those goals.

     

    i think the bio-tech comparison is not a very good one. bio-techs are at the whim of a government agency. axpw has multiple potential business partners and no one agency (see exide) is going to stop them.

     

    i am still a big holder, but sold 44 percent of my position yesterday. i simply couldn't justify tying up that much cash as other, option-able, opportunities present themselves. it's easier to build and maintain large long positions when i can still generate income through sale of covered puts/calls.

     

    selling is harder when i've some idea of the strategies management is implementing AND a way to measure progress along those strategic lines.
    16 May 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    Tragic, your evaluation is fair. Most people's investments need some solid foundation of quantifiable data to tell them what the company is worth, completely understandable but Axion is not that company. I still think some don't really have a grasp of what stage Axion is at in their development. The parameters you outline are for companies like a maxwell or A123 etc. Companies past the R&D stage and clearly in the commercial stage generating revenue with their proprietary product and having some type of control over their sales, and some type of data points on the demand of their product through sales.

     

    They can tell us as much as they know right now which is that they have proven their product to NS, they are proving it to auto's and their are new markets and new potential customers that they are proving it to. They have hired a VP of Marketing and business development to further the commercialization process along and establish a solid market for their product. Once that market is established through some commercial sales they will have some data points to begin quantifying future growth and potential -- they are not there yet and they are far, far from being valued there.

     

    To create your own fair value of Axion at this stage is very subjective because you only have what they have been doing with their product through non-commercial sales to base your speculation on, that is why so many people have such vastly different expectations for the company.

     

    Anyhow, it is just my view.
    16 May 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    Jak, i was able to generate some income in my trading account thanks to the axpw sale yesterday and i still have some regrets about letting those shares go. i typically don't hold many companies but i guess it boils down to how much cash i'll entrust to management.

     

    i have to admit that it was exactly management that brought me to axpw in dec and has had me buying since. i think i just over-reached, and that's a new thing for me. i never ran out desire to buy more axpw, which some might find troubling. it's a combination of opaque CCs, oil dropping and NOK getting cheaper while i can still sell near term calls at 3.50.

     

    enough enumeration about my investing. its just hard to let go of shares, and feel envious of Poul for reaching 1mil at the same time. it's not about the value of shares (which is still undervalued) its value in comparison to something else with regards to personal risk.

     

    my comfort is that making money now = cash on hand to buy more axpw. even if i pay more, with time comes information/reduced risk.
    16 May 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One should never apologize for taking a profit, particularly if he sees another market opportunity that seems likely to mature more quickly. I tried playing the market timing game as a younger man and learned I wasn't very good at it. I eventually got tired of adding to my repertoire of stock market fishing stories, as in *the one that got away.* Now I only invest when I figure I know more than everybody else in the market. It's easy to do with confidence when I've represented companies as legal counsel and have spent enough time back-stage, but it would be a lot harder if I didn't have the first hand knowledge.
    17 May 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1249) | Send Message
     
    Jon, thanks for the comment. i will say that options allow me to invest without knowing much of anything. i can just sell insurance. it's where i retreat to when things get cloudy. that said it is your intimate knowledge of axpw's product and ability to share that knowledge that led me to a wonderful company.
    17 May 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I can share some of my insights and a lot of my knowledge, but I can't ever give a reader the full depth of my knowledge and experience because those things come from living the history instead of reading about it. No matter how hard we try, you'll never understand Axion the way I do which means that I can sleep well taking risks that any sane man would consider unacceptable. At the end of the day you have to the things and make the choices that seem most sensible to you. I believe Axion's a great opportunity for those that are willing to dig in and understand what they're buying. I don't believe for a moment that it's the only great opportunity.
    17 May 2012, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I liked the way you put it some time back, it is like the rain, it comes when it comes. I wish we had more guidance but we have a speculative investment that we expect to hit big at some point. I wanted that point to be a couple of years ago but, it is like the rain.

     

    I appreciated TG's repeat of the phrase "that we can talk about". I infer he has military applications being tested and possibly other OEM's who have asked for non-disclosure. I think that the charge acceptance would be particularly valuable to delivery trucks and garbage trucks. Does anyone remember any talks about those applications?
    15 May 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    don't expect much there yet rick, they are going nat gas first.
    15 May 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Rick -

     

    Not that I recall exactly on a specific application, but I do remember a discussion about UPS trucks turning off their engines every time they make a delivery. That actually happened to me a couple months ago at a stop light. A UPS truck was stopped behind me and when the light turned green, the truck started its engine again ...
    15 May 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    In response to the last caller (or next to last), TG specifically said he was bound by NDAs. (Plural.)
    15 May 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    And hybrid buses. But they are using ultracapacitors, l-ion and Nickel Metal Hydride instead. I do know its been a rocky road with many setbacks for first and second generation products with those technologies. But PbC does not appear to be on their radar.
    15 May 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    Garbage trucks are also starting to use hydraulic accumulators in hydraulic hybrid systems (from Eaton and Parker). These accumulators are able to capture more braking energy than batteries.

     

    “We decided to use hydraulic hybrid technology. . .since it recovers more than three times the brake energy and an overall 30 percent lower cost of ownership than any electric hybrid technology available today”
    http://bit.ly/JQKPSF
    15 May 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    While I don't expect a significant order any time soon, I do believe that the military is looking hard at the temperature and recharge/reliability stats of PbC. Think reliability and safety. A dead vehicle battery can kill in military situations.
    That could come before fuel cost savings of other applications.
    15 May 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Seeing how Axion has been testing other batteries, I liked TG's comments about the competitions' batteries. I don't like that we have no time frame on potential sales, but understand the NDA's and that it is the customer's decision - just the nature of the beast.
    15 May 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I was glad to hear Tom speak plainly about the relative performance gains from carbon additives, the ultrabattery and the PbC; and the relative merit of going to more exotic and costly carbons. A clear statement that they don't see enough of a threat to justify the legal costs is a solid expression of confidence. The same is true for the exotic carbons.
    15 May 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    A few points I need clarification on:

     

    1. Carbon sheeting process: I thought this was automated now? He said: it is ahead of schedule? What does that mean?

     

    2. Residential PC...I thought it was ready for sale in Sept. at the Indy Home Show...with demo's out before then.
    Now he says will be faster to mkt. than other areas? So it won't be ready for sale, just a demo at the home show.

     

    3. Current production will meet our needs now, no reason for added line. So no order ramp in near future. This is why he probably dodged any revenue increase numbers.

     

    4. oil rigs..he only mentioned "manufacturers" nothing about retrofitting existing rigs, I take it he is working with new rigs only?.

     

    5. He is definitely on others timeline, auto's are slow, fleet testing is next step, is this next year and a real model in '14 or '15 ?

     

    I see nothing new in the call except there is more interest now, and he says the competitive products do not work as advertised. (we know that)
    I still think there is a production issue with the carbon sheeting process, it is ahead of schedule but not completed yet.
    As has been said, orders come when they come. But nothing he can lay his hat on. Even NS OTR loco will probably be longer in coming if history is a guide. Which is what I thought, get the 999 running first-then the OTR later.
    Gonna be a long summer guys, without a surprise maybe even a year. TG did not sound nearly as upbeat today as a few weeks ago (to me anyway, and avoided any numbers or milestones)
    15 May 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    1. In the past, the carbon sheeting process was the most labor intensive part of making PbC electrode assemblies. What everybody's twisted off on is the idea that there's some sort of problem. The reality is that they found a way to go from a multi-pass process with significant hand work to a fully automated single roll system. In the year end call Tom said:

     

    "Yes, carbon sheeting is something that we’ve planned on for some time. We’ve devoted time and effort and money to that roll production. We’re producing carbon right now in more than adequate quantities to meet our needs for manufacturing. We are on schedule. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule in this roll production process.

     

    If we received an order for 10 million batteries tomorrow, quite frankly, we wouldn’t be able to meet that order over the next couple of months. But, it’s our plan to move forward with the carbon sheeting, with the rolled sheeting process and we have that. We’ve been working, and we have people that work only on that project. We have equipment. We’ve moved things around. We’ve cleared out some areas here that will just be devoted to that process and I’m already starting to talk too much about it. So, I’m going to stop there."

     

    What you think of as a problem is a huge accomplishment that I view as extraordinarily good news. They were doing installation work six weeks ago. Assuming that there's some kind of problem because the installation isn't done yet is grasping for negative straws.

     

    3. Current electrode production capacity is in the neighborhood of 125 batteries per shift. A new electrode line can be ordered and installed in six weeks. This board of directors will not spend millions of dollars expanding capacity until they have an order in hand that requires the expansion. There are no Ray Kinsellas on the Axion team.
    15 May 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall the source of my information, or the validity, but IIRC, wasn't fleet testing to have begun with BMW in summer 2011? I was surprised when TG said fleet testing is next step. Is my assumption about BMW correct, or did I dream that up, or did I hear his comment on fleet testing wrong?
    15 May 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Metro: my understanding: we need to distinguish using the PbC in test vehicles, which is being done, from employing the PbC in fleet testing. The latter is larger-scale than what's being done. Test vehicles is all we ever knew of, although I don't think we were precisely distinguishing these before.
    15 May 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP. If someone wanted to be the expectations mgr here, it would almost be a full-time job!
    15 May 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Please don't even suggest that.

     

    My powder is dry and my trigger finger itchy as hell now that we've gone below $0.40.

     

    I'm hoping for about 3 days below that, since I'm *primarily* investing, not trading.

     

    A year or two of holding with the expected returns justifies the opportunity cost to me.

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know that managing expectations is possible in a situation like this. We get to hear bits and pieces of management's expectations, but those pesky NDAs coupled with stockholders who not only listen to the words but discuss them with each other in great detail makes for a very tough dynamic. It's particularly difficult when none of the timing decisions are in your hands and talking out of school can be severely punished. The most telling line in the call was "we're buckling our seat belts." You don't do that a year or two before you expect to need them.
    15 May 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3606) | Send Message
     
    Laf,

     

    You are correct. Similar to how NS will have a test loco now but a "fleet test" would require dozens more (and years of time).

     

    As of yet Axion has not been deployed a "fleet test" in automotive. Also, since the auto numbers are so large I'd expect a fleet to mean hundreds of vehicles.
    15 May 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I think the Nov. CC was the source of our last update on the *kind* of testing being done by BMW:
    "We have regularly scheduled calls with them [BMW] a few times a month every month to report progress. They’re doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here and that testing has proceeded beyond bench testing. I can’t really get into a whole lot more detail about that, but we certainly are testing with them and with other automotive OEMs."
    So we knew it was beyond bench, but we tended not to precisely distinguish between test vehicles and fleet testing, and so some were hoping for the latter.
    15 May 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Yep. I squeezed it into the top of my notes!
    15 May 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I went back and looked at old 10-Q's and 10-K and I was optimistically and naively not differentiating between the terms "vehicle testing" and "fleet testing". Thanks Lafferty
    15 May 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    "The invertebrate stirs". Said with same disbelief and horror as "the mummy walks".
    15 May 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2391) | Send Message
     
    An observation on "home sized" or residential PCs: Anything sold to an individual or for use by an unsophisticated group has to be both bullet proof AND idiot proof. Until the software "damage prevention" protocols are fully tested you DO NOT want to allow a PC into the suburban environment.

     

    The PC has to be protected against everything from miss-wiring the AC line to the PC to placing a hard short across the output. If the user can access the actual PbC battery terminals in the housing, the game is over.

     

    That is why actual field testing is needed. Idiots can be so clever!
    15 May 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    No disrespect...But couldn't the BUCKLE UP comment mean something negative as well??
    15 May 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    SHB - agreed. Fortunately the residential solar and wind market has plowed some ground for us...
    15 May 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Not in the context that we heard.
    16 May 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    SH/Tim

     

    Agreed...but I don't "look under the hood" at furnaces/AC...it would take some time, but I'd say private market small service company support would suffice.
    I have to believe most buyers of solar utilize the vendor for servicing.
    16 May 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Sand Energy/SilTek has a Facebook account and recently took some pictures of the Space Shuttle from the Naval Yard Zero Energy building project. In these pictures you can see the solar panel framework that I suspect is installed on the top of the parking structure adjacent to the Welcome Center.

     

    It's not much but it's nice to put a visual to the project. I got to spend some time there in late Feb but the parking structure was beyond public access...

     

    http://on.fb.me/JQNqvG

     

    And a little more information on Zero Energy Buildings...

     

    http://bit.ly/JGNRHS
    15 May 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • CoryM
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had level 2 to see the game between feeders and flippers. Not that the short term game has much to do with the long term price, but I just find it interesting none the less.
    15 May 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Catfish are getting their opportunity now...bid .395/ask .401

     

    there is selling in the works...price drop slowed it down a bit.
    15 May 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Fellow Axionistas - We bought this stock for the home run potential. (For a penny stock, we worry whether the stock is real or whether the product is going to be accepted by the market. So far, we see this is a real stock. It has a proven product and users are requesting RFP.)

     

    For those stock holders who do not want to wait, I will be glad to buy your shares but at a lower price; how about .35 or lower !!!
    15 May 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Don't listen to *808--he's a catfish!

     

    I'll buy your shares for .36, and I'll throw in a pizza.
    15 May 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    About fleet testing and expectations...here's a comment I wrote back on August 16. I believe the comment is still valid, and on track (except about the DOE grant).

     

    ####

     

    Bang & SBH: Perhaps I need to do a little evincing that I unfortunately may have let slip by.

     

    Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
    more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so.

     

    Why hasn't this happened already? Is the Detroit OEM ahead or behind, too, is a question with now scant feedback, due to the DOE not providing the grant.

     

    I construed Avril's input to be that Axion will only be providing/selling to BMW potentially that amount of batteries during this year and into next.

     

    Subliminally, maybe that's why I expect the next big announcement will come from the RR industry, and not auto, in previous comments.

     

    However, I did see an Axion car leaving the local Hampton Inn, which John and I assumed, during our 100 mile long conversation across the PA Turnpike, when I was travelling back to Philly, to be a test vehicle using the PbC battery. It was not a BMW, by the way, at first glance, as it was pulling out of the parking lot when I was entering. I truly wish I had noticed the make--Hampton Inn has a strange, poorly designed entrance/exit, and I was being the kind one, letting that Axion small-ish car get out, before I entered. Or crashed!

     

    Really enjoying yours and others banter, because that triggers a lot of stuff I failed to before write about.
    15 May 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    "I did see an Axion car leaving the local Hampton Inn" -

     

    What led you to the conclusion that it was an "Axion car?"
    15 May 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: The little car had the Axion spiral logo on it.
    15 May 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    JP, I do not appreciate your reference to "you are grasping for negative straws".

     

    I stated questions for clarity, not negative straws...anything short of boasting this stock to $100 / sh is considered negative here.

     

    Your track record of late has not been all that great on predictions....
    the offering price was lower than expected
    more have "flipped" than expected
    the toll contract growth numbers to grow 300% qtr/qtr
    Revenue expectations for qtr. 1 & prob. qtr. 2 this year

     

    I could go on...but I won;t as this is my last post here until they do hit the home run, then it will be a one word post.
    Good luck all.
    15 May 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    LT, I'll be sad to see you go if you do stop posting here.

     

    Constructive critique, asking hard questions, etc., with regard to *any* company is absolutely essential, and I would not be at all comfortable participating in the APC or, frankly, holding AXPW, if the blog neglected to include this.
    15 May 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    I would be sorry to see you go.
    15 May 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I too would be sad to see you go. My problem is not that you ask tough questions, but that you ask questions and then add an overlay of expectations that don't necessarily mesh with the facts.

     

    I've never claimed the gift of prophecy and do my best to avoid predicting anything. I share my expectations, but when it comes to the future I have no particular insights, either positive or negative.

     

    The offering price was based on market conditions and timing issues nobody could have anticipated. Nobody is prescient enough to know that sort of thing in advance.

     

    We know how many shares have changed hands since the offering and that total is still within the range of my prior experience. Once again, nobody who doesn't have precise details can do more than speak in generalities.

     

    I made no particular predictions about what revenues would be. I did, however, offer a plausible explanation of how revenues could ramp to a 300% YoY growth without spectacular news on the PbC front. Part of that plausible explanation was based on an inaccurate assumption that upgrades to the second flooded line were complete instead of being work in process. Bad assumptions lead to bad conclusions.
    15 May 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    IMO, don't worry about it. No one in his right mind expects you to walk on water.

     

    Different folks with different profiles will behave differently.

     

    Some come in, some go out.

     

    I just wish all the best regardless of the rational decisions they must make for their profile.

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    By all means take a breather, LT.

     

    You sound a little frustrated and disappointed which is always a function of expectations.

     

    We all really do need to focus on managing our expectations and although we're fastening our seat-belts we should also settle in for the long haul that this company is destined to be.

     

    As I said, by all means take a breather, LT. But I hope it's not for too long as I have appreciated your comments even where they express pessimism and criticism.

     

    D
    15 May 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    Some obvious frustration setting in...understandable.
    Depending on one's time frame, if shorter term, it can be excruciatingly frustrating.
    (See tragicslip selling 44%)
    As many have posted, the nature of the beast...penny stock...R&D company...NDAs.
    JP can be blunt and direct...don't take it personal.

     

    Some time away may be healthy for you...it's been a long road and I've only been here 2 years!

     

    "Your track record of late has not been all that great on predictions...."...if John were that prescient, I suspect he'd be doing something else besides law.
    Again, I think some frustration seeping in from many corners.
    16 May 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2032) | Send Message
     
    Did TG say 300-400% increase in total sales, or PbC sales? It just seems to me that FLA sales couldn't possibly increase that much. There are plenty of suppliers for that and Axion is trying hard to sell PbC's. I can forgive the sales team for not drumming up FLA sales when they need to close PbC deals. I'm still holding long to wait for some big PbC orders.
    15 May 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Among other things, I liked the shout-out to the existing shareholders in the 35 cent placement. Very smart to keep them in the back pocket, in case they're needed again.
    15 May 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor, I caught that remark also. It seemed to be TG's way of letting us know that there were very few flippers. They were mainly investors who were already loyal Axion stockholders.
    15 May 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Yep, for me, TG was doing a 2 for 1 with his comments--keep them ("that contributed the vast majority of dollars to this raise") in good graces and a signal to us about the flippers being a small number.

     

    Anyway, sounds and looks like some board members selling down if not all the way out today. A lil catfish food drifting down.
    15 May 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (600) | Send Message
     
    Here are some of my highlights from the call/Earnings Release:

     

    1. During the discussion of Vani Dantam, Mr. Granville stated that in Q1, Axion more than doubled it's "opportunity base" that was in place at year-end. That would imply at least five, if not more, new projects under discussion.

     

    2. Norfolk Southern's order means that "they have stopped testing other products". It seemed clear to me that Mr. Granville was trying to make the point that the NS order was a VERY important milestone that investors don't seem to fully appreciate (remember the stock price was stagnant after the news). He may also have been making the point to potential customers that they should skip the preliminary evaluation of the PbC and go straight to application specific testing.

     

    3. If we incorporate the info in Mayascribe's note above about fleet testing, it would seem that any kind of commercial launch for the 2014 model year would seem to be unlikely.

     

    4. I share the frustration over the flooded contract and while it's been beat to death here's my 2 cents. Given that it was renewed in February, it is possible that no production at all took place in January and only limited production in February. So, it is quite possible that the run-rate on this order entering Q2 is much higher than the quarterly total would imply (even 2x). Given Mr. Granville's conservative nature and how things on the PbC side seems to stretch out even from his perspective, I firmly believe Mr. Granville's 300% comment related virtually entirely to the Flooded contract and that when he made the comment, the run rate, or firm orders that he knew he can deliver, were in-hand.

     

    Remember, not only has he been burned by PbC orders taking longer than expected, but the business from the flooded contract when it was first announced turned out to be much delayed due to the economic downturn.

     

    Yes, the 300% comment wasn't Mr. Granville's best moment, but I can't believe he would repeat the exact same mistake with the same customer again. Now, will it mean all that much given that the margins are so low? I also think not. Hopefully, it'll give us a few more months of extra runway until the next capital raise.
    15 May 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Apmarshall62:

     

    --3. If we incorporate the info in Mayascribe's note above about fleet testing, it would seem that any kind of commercial launch for the 2014 model year would seem to be unlikely.

     

    Please remember that I wrote the above comment last year. With the EZ "EPA" forcing stop/start forward due to the new carbon emission regs, with pretty severe penalties, I believe the model year of 2014 IS the year. Meaning next year, BMW will likely begin using the PbC in some of their models.

     

    IIRC, the BMW cruisers have been undergoing testing now for a year. Putting out the timeline of 2015, would hence mean that BMW would need in excess of three years to perform real life testing.

     

    I have a hard time figuring that, especially because cop cars take a lot of abuse, and (maybe) are used round the clock.

     

    The biggest take I got from today's CC was that nothing out there can do what the PbC can do, because of both the electrode's uniqueness, as well as the activated carbon cathode.

     

    Any battery using a lead cathode, as it has been proven many times now (including Exide's, JCI's and East Penn's AGM batteries) can not offer up the performance and durability that the PbC holds. This science can not be disproven.

     

    What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. The whole auto industry is heading for a massive amount of p-oed customers, who buy stop/start vehicles, which effectively won't be gaining the full % of fuel savings; will only work...sometimes.
    15 May 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... I think the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with fingers crossed that the solution at-hand makes the warranty expiration. Might need to check the fine print.
    15 May 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    DRich: If you can show me any test that has any stop/start lead cathode-type battery exceeding six months before degrading to being basically non-functioning, then I will heed to your fine print.

     

    I agree, it seems the whole auto industry is snorting "hopium."
    15 May 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    One thing to keep in mind: JP has pointed out that regulators woork on the basis of *available* technology.

     

    He's posited that when the PbC can be reliably produced in quantity, the regulators will then be paying attention to the failures of the s/s systems to work reliably because there *is* available technology.

     

    We are nearing that point. ELBC may highlight that the time is approaching that mandatory long-lived reliable s/s is on the way soon.

     

    MHO,
    hardToLove
    15 May 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the lead-acid suppliers are looking forward to extra sales as AGM batteries for stop-start need to be replaced in order for the system to function again.
    15 May 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: So far, as I see it, the car dealerships will only charge the battery, not replace it. The winners will be the dealership Coke and Snicker machines. ;-)

     

    I see class action lawsuits as a definite possibility.
    15 May 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Data? You want ... DATA? What? Sales brochures aren't good enough? Sales need to be made, bottom lines met, regulatory excuses need to be put in place ..... data (harrumph) ... I swear, some people.

     

    If we are willing to live in a world where banks can be trusted to behave ... and we believe them, then why can't chemistry be trumped by brochures. Inquiring minds want to know. After all, we are just trying to deal to the public. What would they know and, besides, what are they going to do .... sue? The mess can be cleaned up and fixed later.

     

    Sales first. It's all about the *NEW*. As I remember auto air conditioning didn't work so well in the beginning.
    15 May 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    "What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. The whole auto industry is heading for a massive amount of p-oed customers, who buy stop/start vehicles, which effectively won't be gaining the full % of fuel savings; will only work...sometimes."

     

    When I joined this comment board several months back, one of the first things to hit me was that growing problem (it actually p's me off, and I'm not even a customer)--just a matter of time before it's revelation goes viral into a huge mess--customers, regulators, environmentalists, almost everybody. The sooner they adopt PbC, the better. I think that the problem may get to the point of being a phase change--in what looks like all of the sudden (to others!), everybody and his brother realizes the PbC is the s/s answer they need for heavy hotel loads. And we're the only one who's got'm. THAT'S just one of many reasons why I'm still long and patient.

     

    Anyone else sense a bit of "we've got a problem here" desperation in the writing on the 13th ELBC's website?
    15 May 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    "Norfolk Southern's order means that "they have stopped testing other products". It seemed clear to me that Mr. Granville was trying to make the point that the NS order was a VERY important milestone that investors don't seem to fully appreciate (remember the stock price was stagnant after the news). He may also have been making the point to potential customers that they should skip the preliminary evaluation of the PbC and go straight to application specific testing."

     

    I don't know if the NS order by itself means that they have stopped testing other batteries, but the fact that TG made the direct statement that "NS is no longer testing other batteries" is a very strong statement on his part which I don't think he would have made if he didn't know it to be true.
    15 May 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Yes, I think the auto industry is going to be in for a rude awakening when they start selling SS as a real option in the US with LA or AGM batteries. They may have been able to pull that diminishing returns crap in Europe, but the US mindset is "if it doesn't work the way it was promised I'm going to sue!"
    15 May 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3606) | Send Message
     
    I have a friend who has a Saturn Vue start/stop and he's on his third battery but he says the dealer always sells it to him for cost (approx 100) dollars. I guess the industry figures most wont even bother when the system goes out and others will just deal with it by getting a battery every 2 years versus the typical 4-6+ year replacement. That seems like a lot of headache to get 3-5%. Like TG said on the call if they want 10%+ fuel savings they'll need the PbC in urban conditions. Hopefully the consumer demands more from their cars.
    15 May 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    As a consumer, I don't care who has given their stated or tacit blessing of a solution--if that part of my new car doesn't work after only a few months, I'm not a happy camper.

     

    It shouldn't have been offered in the first place.
    15 May 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    The consumer will likely need to be educated about the problem. A discussion with Consumer Reports or JD Power and Associates might be useful. JD Power made its reputation a long time ago when it was the first research company that reported the problem in the engine seal for the then new Rotary engine.
    15 May 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Ding! Ding! Ding! Sorry Li-ion, Sorry Li-FePO4, Sorry Ni-Zn, Sorry NiCl, Sorry NaS, Sorry every other LA vendor, you didn't make it. Now, how 'bout a Fresca? Hmm? hmm?
    15 May 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    New marketing tactic:

     

    Send PbC info to high-profile attorneys specializing in class-action, educating THEM on the "best available technology" for SS.

     

    I can sense them schooling already....
    15 May 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    WDD:
    I like the idea, so it should be.
    15 May 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I think ELBC is going to be a watershed event one way or the other. It's where we're really going to find out if we really do have *the* most compelling solution for SS/MH. The issue's profile was raised two years ago with the Ford and BMW presentations. There's been plenty of time for other actors to try to rise to the challenge that SS presents to existing technologies. Many of those wannabee solutions are going to get an airing. The whole issue is going to get an airing. We may learn disturbing things about good-enough competition. We may hear exciting things that all-but confirm PbC's outright superiority. Clearly the whole issue of SS has a huge radar signature now. Half the conference seems focused on SS/microhybrid battery demands and SS/microhybrid battery performance in one way or another.
    15 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    While I like the sentiment, if we kill the SS market before it gets out of its infancy, then there won't be one for Axion to sell its battery to. Not to mention that the auto OEMs aren't exactly going to be appreciative of Axion doing that.
    If you ever watch the show Mad Men, I would point to a scene this year in which Don (the main character) is receiving an award for a letter he wrote about the tobacco industry. The men giving him the award are all pillars of industry, slapping him on the back for doing the right thing for the American Cancer Society, on who's board they all are. However, when Don makes a comment about doing business with some of them he is rudely told that none of them will ever do business with him because he bit the hand that fed him. And that...was unforgivable.
    15 May 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Like your post, 48, except for it determining whether the PbC is the most compelling. I'm not sure if we'll be able to tell from that conference--I'm think'n only orders/design wins will do that. Money talks, kinda thing. Sure looks like the UltraBattery is going to have more speakers talk'n it up. Maybe there will be some more crystalizing in minds that the answer is that there are several acceptable answers--maybe UB for light s/s, PbC for heavy, etc. Right tool for the job. Seems like the current tool is too broadly used.
    15 May 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, It's hard to read too much into TG communication in the area of testing ending. If the testing is done and they chose to go with PBC it surely means that Axions offering satisfies their needs. It does not however exclude all of the other batteries being tested. Could be that another group like lithium ion, as an example, passed as well. Then when they did a full analysis of the application PBC was chosen based on other advantages such as perhaps cost, safety, bms simplicity etc.

     

    I am BTW in agreement with Mr. Granville concerning the importance of the NS selection. I think the market is ignoring how important this really is. I will admit though that I might be wrong in my thinking that the general market is not appreciating this as much as they should using stock price as the measuring stick. There are many other factors that drive short term share price such as overall market conditions, alternate investor interests etc that well could be trumping NS announcement.
    15 May 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Mr, I couldn't quite formulate it to really express what I meant. The asterisks were an attempt to convey that the status of "the most compelling solution" was a thesis up for examination and not established fact. The conference of course won't establish it as fact either, only serve to further support or otherwise undermine the thesis. While we here mostly believe PbC is the hands down best, we don't actually know, though we do have good reason to believe it is so. The conference should smoke out a lot of potential competing solutions, and thus we and everyone else should gain a much better basis for comparison. Ultimately, it's money that talks for sure, and if we're the one, or one of the few, that's standing tallest by weeks end, then more of that money is going to start talking to us.. ;)
    15 May 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I don't disagree about the other batteries. It's like using a Li-ion battery for SS in a micro or mild hybrid. Sure you can do it. Sure it will probably work. But when you add in the cost difference and worries about things like temp variations and such, the PbC just made the most sense and so they stopped testing. And I include this first order of PbC batteries as continued testing, since this is really where the proof in the pudding will be shown.
    15 May 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, We are on the same page.

     

    Boy, I don't know if it's just me but days like today, with so much discussion, really make the format of this form difficult to navigate. Not a big deal because it doesn't happen too often. Could you imagine trying to do this for say AAPL. :(
    15 May 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, are you seeing the orange "new comment" flags on every new post? If not, then complete sympathy on the navigation. If so, they make it a lot easier and more pleasant to track. MUCH better than brand X (the mechanics of which I find almost infuriating) For myself, I haven't had the orange flags work in the concentrator for a couple of weeks now... anyone else *still* having the same problem? They seem to work okay for me on normal articles, just not on instablogs...
    15 May 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    48,
    I have had no problems with SA and the orange flag issue. Two computers and my droid x phone. Different operating systems. Flawless connection. My computer is 4 years old with new MS 7. Laptop the old OS. My phone? New. Whatever it is.
    15 May 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    86, What orange flags? I've been trying to use the new comments block at the top Right of the comments section to keep up. Of coarse it overflows.

     

    The orange flags are next to the actual post? Then how are they reset them after you read the post? You click on it or something.

     

    Thanks for the response.
    15 May 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    481' > "I haven't had the orange flags work in the concentrator for a couple of weeks now...anyone else *still* having the same problem?"

     

    Yes, but it is sporadic. Frequently as I scroll between flagged new comments that are spaced several messages apart I spot a few messages I had not seen before.
    15 May 2012, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh, I have a much older operating system on my old HP laptop that I use for the internet. I'm running Vista. I'll try jumping on one of the other newer desk tops and see if that's the problem.
    15 May 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Sure, The guys winning all the contests have all the sweet new tech. Meanwhile they steal the 0.0001 USD bounties out of the pockets of the poor bottom feeders. (snicker)
    15 May 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    sorry for the timelate reply iindelco, but at just above where the comments start you should see a checkbox labeled: "Track new comments on this article" Up until a couple of weeks ago, when I checked that for any particular article (or instablog) then anytime a new comment was posted, I'd get an orange flag up in the top right of the menubar (near my username) which would tell me which articles had new comments.. then upon opening the article, any new comments would be flagged, directly on each comment, with a small orange banner to denote new. Opening the article would take you right to the firstmost new comment, and then you could scroll down from there to each subsequent one. Made it very easy to keep track. Now without them, it's quite a bit more of a chore. One thing I haven't tried yet, but will, and then will report back, is to sign out and then sign back in, perhaps that will clear up my problem... I have a Win7 system using chrome browser. Will brb and advise outcome....
    16 May 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Well drat. I went and cleared cache, nuked cookies...signed out... signed in...and... bupkis. No orange flags for me. drat. I will go back to cursing the darkness for a while more.
    16 May 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D-inv. It's totally consistent for me. Haven't seen an orange flag in an instablog since sometime in April...
    16 May 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4101) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    I had problems with this last month. The solutions I discovered:
    - don't have any tracked articles on which you have not read the new comments on in weeks
    - don't have more than 4 unread messages in your SA mail in-box.
    16 May 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    Oh. Well. Ahem. Of the first I am like 7th level of hell guilty. On the second, I am as pure as new fallen antarctic snow...

     

    let me see if I can heal myself. such thanks...
    16 May 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I've always had problems with the orange flags as well, but it has more to do with my internet software than operating system. I get my email update via AOL, which for some unknown reason, doesn't show the orange flags next to the new posts when I follow the link in my email updates. However, if I open my AOL email by first opening Internet Explorer, or using a Mac, go to AOL.com and follow the updates link that way I see the orange flags for new posts. My problem is that I'm too lazy to do that all the time, so I just scroll down every time and look at the date stamp as I'm going. So my guess is that it isn't a Vista issue as much as a internet software issue.
    16 May 2012, 03:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Long ago and far away ... before I realized how unresponsive SA is, I posted suggestions for improvements. The minimal one, in Jan. of ... '10 or was it '11, was to get the flagging working properly.

     

    Moving up, a "next new comment" navigation button (dependent on that first item working correctly). Beyond that, better indents of threads and collapsed threads (flagged if a new comment was in a collapsed thread). Last was a real message board format.

     

    I have no hope they will do anything for us now.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Tried a different (later) browser?

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Adding to what others have said. I keep multiple tabs open in my browser. In one, go to your "My Feed" on SA and put the url on the bookmark toolbar.

     

    Then click on that when you want to get notifications *now*.

     

    If anything (everything) works right, you'll get a list of articles and instablogs you're following that have new comments down the right side and (sporadically?) the orange notification box in the upper right. You can also click that little "clipboard" on the SA "toolbar" that appears on the right between "Contributor Center" and your ID drop-down menu.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    481: e-mail support@seekingalpha.com

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    48,
    Again. I have Vista, Win7, and the google OS. My orange flags always appear. My menu button at the top lets me know about new comments even on ancient articles.

     

    You are not experiencing a SA problem. You are experiencing an SA and your software/hardware problem. All I know is that I know nothing about software or hardware. SA has always just worked for me.

     

    I do remember having issues with chrome a long time back. My browser is firefox and it is wonderful.
    16 May 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    "What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. "

     

    I believe that is part of the challenge...getting PbC in front of them.
    A long lead time, but hopefully not that long!
    16 May 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Maya...agree in general, but my thought is maybe a "quiet" Ford presence is there...smart, tech and business savvy CEO.
    They've come too far to drop the ball six months after purchases.

     

    Maybe my snorting "hopium", but just thinking.
    16 May 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    A point that is supported by the fact that Ford has been involved in the testing protocol from the beginning ...
    16 May 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    MI

     

    "...one of the first things to hit me was that growing problem (it actually p's me off,...)--just a matter of time before it's revelation goes viral into a huge mess--customers, regulators, environmentalists, almost everybody."
    Moi aussi!
    I've posted that frustration as well.

     

    "...everybody and his brother realizes the PbC is the s/s answer..."
    Not yet!
    That's Vani's challenge.
    "THAT'S just one of many reasons why I'm still long and patient."
    16 May 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I can clear some of this up for you -- based solely on my observations, not on any official Seeking Alpha statements. I've been following via Android, WinXP, Windows 7, and on Chrome, Firefox and (occasionally) Explorer, and I'm pretty sure it's not a hardware or software bug that you're encountering.

     

    1st, the notification of new comments was changed a month ago (or so) to prioritize articles over instablogs. Even if the latest comment on something you're tracking is on an instablog, it'll show real articles first. I unsubscribed from all the articles to get the instablogs to show back up in the drop down list, but you can also get to the instablogs by clicking on "more notifications" and then expanding to see even "more notifications" until you see the instablogs.

     

    2nd, the "new comment" flags ONLY show up if you navigate to the instablog through the new comment notification at the top right of the screen. Whenever I navigate through a SA search or from an email I do not see the "new comment" flags. I believe the flags are triggered by the "&source=tracking_... part of the link and are not automatically generated on every page you load.

     

    This might explain why some people can't see the new comment flags (they're navigating through emailed links or doing a search for the concentrator instead of navigating to the latest tracked instablog). It could also explain why some people don't see tracked instablogs -- they have too many tracked articles that have recently been given priority in the "new comment list" over instablogs.

     

    Then again, it might just be unrelated software issues as you've speculated.
    17 May 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    I get mine only on FF on Linux. I have a bookmark that takes me to "My Feed". I always go that way as it has seemed most reliable over time.

     

    Most recently, the number of unflagged comments seems less, although just a couple weeks ago it was pretty awful.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter,

     

    That's it!!!! I wasn't aware of the re-prioritization (sneaky bastages) but the time of that change maps perfectly... I had nearly a hundred different articles marked for tracking, which I guess just overwhelmed the buffer... anyway, I nuked a coupla dozen of them and Voila, instablogs are now working 4.0. You are the bees knees. much gratitude (and embarrassment that I didn't have the patience/gumption to run this to ground myself)
    17 May 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Mr Invester: Board members selling? No way. That's a terrible rumor to start and I want that one squashed immediately.

     

    My guess is a few frustrated Axionistas are selling.

     

    Again, the only thing that has changed is the time frame (whatever that is).

     

    Norfolk's order validates Axion's PbC. As TG stated, it was, "Proof of concept."
    15 May 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... "squashed immediately" ... Amen to that. "Mr. Investor" ... A really ignorant statement. Even beyond something I'd come up with and shows you've got some work to do to justify the moniker.
    15 May 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    To come to his defense, I took Mr. Investor to mean members of this internet discussion "board". Us.
    15 May 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Ah, he doesn't need any defense. And FWIW, what I see supports his conclusion.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Us, of course. C'mon, fellas.
    15 May 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Benefit of doubt from me to you Mr I <smile>...
    15 May 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor: Sorry to jump on you. But when I saw "board" I almost jumped out of my Crocs.
    15 May 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, guys.
    15 May 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3142) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I would have reacted the same way if someone meant the BODs. It was my post, so my fault for not writing more clearly.

     

    Anyway, I interpret the edginess of this APC (there, I left out the you-know-which word. See how fast I learn? lol) as being a bit of a buy signal, based on the past 6 months of my informal sentiment observations.
    15 May 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I don't care if you do sometimes use the "b" word, I like your thinking.
    15 May 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    I smell contrarian indicators in the air all over the place. I agree the field is ripe.

     

    edit:
    or...the tree is ripe.. and the field is ready for harvest. whatever.
    15 May 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Y E P
    15 May 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    POC for me is a design win. A market order from whomever (NS/BMW) AFTER field testing is completed. We are just about beginning exhaustive field (fleet) testing in cars and locomotives, orders of the kind I'm looking for are a year or more away. This is the reality.

     

    As wonderful as this concentrator is, we are in our enthusiasm collectively willing this thing to move faster than it can, and this leads to frustration. It has been a long road and will continue to be so for a while yet, even under the best of circumstances.
    15 May 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    Some think of me as a troll. I might be just an investor ALWAYS looking at the negative side of my investments. However since i started to post here i always get attacked. Yet it seems that when i point out that this company is far from profitable right now IT is my opinion.

     

    I did sell some of my shares and may continue in the future. But as i just read some others are now stating they are done posting. Tempers seem to be rising, and i am just glad i am not part of it.

     

    Personally i don't care if you accept me, but if you chose to mock my opinions then you just diminish the quality posted here. It is either positive or don't post!!

     

    I never will understand the engineering parts as i was not in the industry. However i still should have a right to post a concern i have, Some had a field day when i posted i did not like the financials, and then i was mocked !!

     

    Well apparently others seem to feel the same way looking at the stock price today. So some should think about ridiculing a person who posts what they feel,

     

    Otherwise you lose your acceptance of others who MIGHT want to post. but more important from those who might want to invest !!!

     

    But if a negative post is a TROLL then i am one...Because i look at both sides of every argument. If oil continues to drop , i also see some other issues rising as well...

     

    Bottom line, Axion has a long way to go and if the economy starts to tank ( it already has imo ) things will really slow down.

     

    MAP
    15 May 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    MAP: TG is on record stating that profitability will not occur until 4th Q, 2013.

     

    What I don't understand is your propensity to conveniently forget what has been repeatedly written here in these blogs...when the timing suits you to do so, and that's always when something negative about Axion emerges, you emerge, forgetful of what has already been discussed countless times here in these APCs.

     

    All things relative, we own a developmental company that's a hair's breath away from becoming a manufacturing company.

     

    Months, not years.

     

    Fully realizing that this is my opinion only, anyone buying shares today, or tomorrow or the next day, should garner faster annual asset appreciation from today than any other asset they own.

     

    I hold shares I bought from $1.20 all the way down to 28 cents. I hold zero fears Axion won't make it, and that someday I will be able to sell those $1.20 shares for a handy profit.
    15 May 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Thats just it.....I question profitability in 2013 right now. I stay quiet because i have nothing to add technically. But when people start predicting dates then i question.

     

    Hell, even TG said that NS sale was way behind what they were expecting. My concerns are Axion essentially has just two customers .

     

    One buying most of the flodded batteries, and ONE order from NS.
    One day i also hope that others join in, but right now it is wishful thinking.

     

    Then if we have another dilution because of lack of sales what's the price gonna be ?? ,25 cents a share? So yes i conveniently wait until i want to voice my concern. Otherwise reading all the technical stuff means nothing to me if it doesn't turn into sales.

     

    I might add i really don't read these post everyday because it is kinda like a soap on TV. You can miss a week and be at the same spot..

     

    I hope for all you are right, as i will hold onto a percentage of my shares. But i honestly aren't convinced this is a home run yet !!
    If that is because of my ignorance then its my fault, but if it is wishful thinking of others then well see down the road..

     

    I might add i won't be adding shares at this point...Be my guest if you do.
    15 May 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "it is kinda like a soap on TV. You can miss a week and be at the same spot".

     

    LoL! That slipped by me - but it is so true.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (995) | Send Message
     
    Blogs are still in the early stages...investment blogs especially.
    Caveat emptor and own due diligence required for all blogs/articles, reading and following comments.
    One must understand the type/experience of "trader" or "investor" commenting.
    One must also differentiate the newbies from the techies from the detail commenters, big picture commenters, business savvy commenters...read...di... in context.

     

    I for one find this series of blogs to be the most transparent, interesting, educational, blunt, direct and open to any constructive or non hidden agenda queries.
    16 May 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Me too.
    This blog is different probably because the core initial group has not moved on but rather has stayed and taught and learned from each other.
    16 May 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (600) | Send Message
     
    Mayascribe: Your reference to "BMW cruisers" would seem to imply police cars. If I am remembering correctly, there was some discussion that testing was underway with police and taxi cabs. However, today's call would seem to indicate that is incorrect. Wouldn't police cars be considered Fleet Testing?

     

    If they're not yet doing fleet testing now, and they start this summer, then it'd have to be done by year-end to make the 2014 models. Wouldn't it?

     

    Sorry I didn't ask the question explicitly the first time.
    15 May 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall62 and Rick: Unfortunately, I don't have total recall (it took me about 20 minutes to locate my above fleet testing comment).

     

    I think TG will reveal much more at the shareholders conference. Although, because of this blog, I also expect him to be more guarded than he was last year.

     

    As for BMW testing in cruisers, I don't recall when or in what APC(s) this has been discussed. But I know it has been discussed.

     

    We may be talking semantics, because we don't know, or I can't recall how many cop cars are being tested. What exactly is fleet testing? How many cars does it take to be considered a fleet?

     

    I honestly don't know. But what I do know is what Bob Avrill stated at the past shareholders conference is keen and proving out dead on correct.
    15 May 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "What exactly is fleet testing"

     

    I sure wish it meant "fast testing"!

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    Maya, If I understood TG properly he said the next phase of testing by auto makers would be fleet testing which may be up to 200 cars doing real world driving for a significant period of time. The way TG said it suggested to me that fleet testing has not yet happened. First, did you understand it that way also. Second, if the fleet testing has not happened, do you think there is time for that to occur, results evaluated, a decision be made, the design incorporated into production and then the batteries ordered and delivered in time for the 2014 models? Seems to me that 2015 model year is a safer bet. But I am open to anyone who can show how the timeline works for 2014 model cars. Thanks
    15 May 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Rick: I did hear TG state "fleet testing is next."

     

    Could this be with another OEM, other than BMW?

     

    I'd have to go back and do some research, but I believe the penalties Europe intends to wage on the automakers have already begun this year. Penalties will scale up significantly year after year, until 2016. Introducing stop/start in 2015 would not be the frugal thing to do, as I believe hundreds of millions of dollars/euros are involved.
    15 May 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    As I recall TG said fleet testing is the next step in the process.
    15 May 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I know of two and only two recent references by Axion to the kind of testing being done by BMW:

     

    1. Nov. 2011 CC:
    "[BMW is] doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here and that testing has proceeded beyond bench testing. I can’t really get into a whole lot more detail about that"

     

    2. Axion Investor Presentation:
    "OEM vehicle testing of PbC® battery with optimized hybrid vehicle system architecture began in 2011" (p. 21/28)
    http://bit.ly/Hfv7fu
    15 May 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Dirtdauber
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    My phone connection to the CC got dropped, so I did not get a chance to ask my question on the 10Q, related to the statement, "We have shipped our latest battery iteration to those OEMs that we have been most closely working with . . ."

     

    Does anyone have any information on the nature of / reasons for / significance of the "latest battery iteration"?
    15 May 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    IMHO opinion, it might have been a battery that was produced using the assembly line and demonstrating consistent quality. Just a possibility and just my speculation. Could also be some minor tweaks on the inside, but that is far as my expertise would take me.
    15 May 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Dirtdauber,
    Not that I know of. I wanted to ask the question too, but my 10:30 meeting didn't get over until almost noon so I didn't get to call in either. I'm hoping that the "latest battery iteration" are just to show that what is coming off the assembly line now is no different than what was coming off 3 or 6 months ago as far as QC.
    The other possibility I see is that BMW's engineers have been working with the PbC and asked them to "tweak" certain aspects of it to meet their specific auto needs. Remember that TG said that the form of PbC batteries coming off the lines now are ready for use in rail and cube applications. It may be that there needs to be changes made to make them work better for SS applications that have been shaken out during the auto OEM's testing. At least that's my theory.
    15 May 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Makes me think of the "power vs. energy" tweaks. Or maybe to have a higher beginning voltage?

     

    HardToLove
    15 May 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Yes. I see it as no different than what you see now with LA starter batteries. If your car needs a new one you go to Sears or wherever and chose between a couple batteries that they have the meet the specifications for your car. Every battery they carry won't work in your car because they are configured slightly differently depending on the needs of your vehicle. Why would a SS battery be any different? You've got micro to mild hybrids in different size vehicles with different power systems, different regenerative braking systems, different transmissions, etc. That's why they are selling to OEMs and not on the secondary market. As John has often said, the OEMs are going to need to design their SS systems around the PbC's advantages. One would also assume that Axion will need to makes variations of their basic battery to meet multiple needs. That why I believe TG specified that rail and Cube applications were ready for immediate release with the current PbC battery configuration. Because those applications don't need changes to fit their systems. They just need more or less strings of batteries with the electrical and BMS to go with it.
    15 May 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    "power vs energy" tweaks is something I would like to better understand.
    15 May 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    I "think" this is where we get into the questions of why they are still having issues with the carbon sheets. I don't think there is any issue for the carbon sheets when it comes to rolling out the standard mix that they are using for rail and Cubes, especially now that they've updated their system and got it down to a single roll process, an accomplishment that John is quick to point out is a major improvement over how things use to be. Kirk T has suggested in the past that you can alter the power vs energy of the PbC to some extend by how much carbon and how much binder you put into the mix before you roll the sheets out. He could never say more than that about it. My belief is that they are still playing with this mix, not for the standardized batteries that they are using for NS and their Cubes, but possibly in response to various auto OEMs who want to know if they can "tweak" the carbon sheets to make the PbC a little more friendly to their specific SS systems. I have absolutely no proof for any of this, but it would explain why there are still discussions about changes in the carbon sheeting this far along in the game.
    16 May 2012, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As I understand the power-energy balance, it has more to do with the relative thickness of the lead and carbon electrodes. I think the carbon to binder ratio is a very stable specification that may improve a little bit over time, but the benefits of squeezing out that last couple percent of binder content don't strike me as massive.

     

    As I understand it, the current carbon sheeting technology is a 2011 vintage development. Before that, everything was multi-pass with a high labor content. I don't know whether it was a series of incremental improvements that took the number of passes from ±30 down to 1, but it's darned impressive in any event.
    16 May 2012, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: I don't recall it having anything to do with the sheeting process.

     

    IIRC, it has to do with thickness and/or number of cells per battery (voltage) and number of "plate assemblies" on the negative electrode (power vs. energy).

     

    I *think* more plate assemblies gave more power (more surface area) and fewer but thicker plates gave more energy (greater storage capacity).

     

    But that's a hazy memory with no foundation of experience to back it up.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    "Power vs energy" tweaks would typically be the ratio of surface area of Pb plates to mass of Pb plates. More, thinner Pb sheets have more surface area to transfer electrons, and therefore more power. Thicker, heavier (fewer) sheets cannot transfer electrons as fast, but last longer, so this configuration would generally give more energy. In capacitors, area is the primary determinate of energy and power, so I think (not know) greater C thickness (in a PbC) is irrelevant. Greater C area is key for rapid charge acceptance, and to a lesser extent, more power. Therefore, all C anodes would have the same thickness (except possibly for extreme vibration applications, but I suspect all are to the same spec).

     

    This is at the cell level, not the battery level, and is independent of 6-cell batteries (12 v) or 8-cell batteries (16 v) design. Either can emphasize power or energy.

     

    I don't think there would be significant changes to electrolyte or binder specifications in power vs energy tweaking. Some high energy Pb-acid batteries have issues with dendritic growths shorting out the battery, so greater electrolyte thickness (less Pb) is necessary to allow for these growths. I do not know if these are an issue with PbC chemistry. Since AGM batteries generally do not have these issues, I doubt PbC does.

     

    There may be some tweaks in the connectors and terminals. High power also means high amperage, so there has to large cross-sectional area of the connectors between cells, and the terminals. A low power (but high energy) battery could theoretically use lighter connectors. However, a PbC energy battery would presumably run all the way down to 2 volts, which could generate significant amperage, and therefore need the heavy duty connection of a high power battery. My guess is they are using standardized connections across all batteries.

     

    Caveat: I am not a battery engineer; corrections and additions welcome.
    16 May 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't have much more to add to the power vs energy discussion, but may be able to shed a little light on architecture.

     

    If you go to any of the Axion presentations, they have a slide that shows how electrode stacks are interleaved with separators and then top welded with an L shaped lug. When the electrodes stacks are inserted in the cells, the lugs line up with 1/2 " holes in the cell partitions and the lugs for the electrode stacks in the next cell. As the last step before the cover is mounted, the adjoining top lugs in each cell are spot-welded to the lugs in the next cell through the partition holes. It's an extremely reliable way to get cell to cell connections that can stand whatever amperage the battery can throw at them. It's a standard manufacturing process throughout the industry and nobody messes with it because it works so well.
    16 May 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4289) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all responders there!
    16 May 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Let's not overlook the lead side with thicker and purer plates. Again, what I would give for the PbC inside an Odyssey battery...
    16 May 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Thinner purer positive electrodes could be problematic in the PbC because it's difficult to make really thin PbC electrodes. You have to remember the PbC electrode is a five layer laminated assembly and it's hard to change the thickness of the current collector and corrosion barriers, which leaves the carbon sheet as the only simple variable. As you reduce the thickness of the carbon, you proportionally reduce the capacitance. Batteries are among the most unforgiving beasts in the world and when you make a tweak that increases one metric, you invariably lose performance someplace else.
    16 May 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    One thing for RK, which may or may not be a point he missed. The thickness of the carbon electrode is relevant because the big key feature of the carbon is its amazing internal micro-structure and porosity, so total surface area for adsorption (which is freakin huge) does increase with thickness. Like John stated above, more thickness=more area=more capacitance... anyway that is my simplified understanding of it..
    16 May 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    MAP, I for one appreciate sincere concerns (expressed respectfully) as much as the positive. I tend to ignore the difficult issues when my excitement over a technology takes hold. The recent 35 cent offering splashed cold water in my face, so to speak, and brought me back to the harsh realities of the market value of 115 million shares of stock in a company that has yet to break even. I am here to make money, not fall in love. If your respectful concerns help me make money, then keep them coming.

     

    When I expressed concerns after the offering and the stock was selling at 48 cents some suggested I sell if I was bothered by the offering. So I did and I am glad I did. I sold at 48 cents, made about 20% on my investment, and have started to get back in with a goal of averaging back in at 39 cents or less again. The point is that if the fundamentals or the market conditions suggest the stock may languish or slide for a while, it is ok to be realistic and sell and then get back in when the time seems more opportune, even if some others suggest you are being negative. I welcome insight into a situation, positive or negative, that can help me and others make informed decisions. And while I love the PbC tech, I understand that the stock price will, in the words of the experts, fluctuate. There is nothing wrong with me or Bang or HTL or others selling and then buying back if we sense the market has gotten ahead of the sales and intrinsic value.
    15 May 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Well stated Rick.
    15 May 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2391) | Send Message
     
    Ahem, contrary to some skepticism, I managed to fill a long standing BUY order for a substantial block at $0.391 today.

     

    We bottom feeding Axionistas are patient and don't pay much attention to the "anxiety of the day". Except to try and profit by it.

     

    The product and company are both just fine. Advancing sales in the face of a weak economy is encouraging and says the buyers expects a return on their money.
    15 May 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    And my girl-friend just added at 0.38. Give me another day with these prices so I too can get a purchase order placed, before the seat-belt becomes necessary :-)
    15 May 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    My 15 minute SWOT attempt.
    I might have omitted some things or some may be just plain incorrect. Just my perspective on Axion as a company.

     

    15 May 2012

     

    STRENGTHS
    Patent protection
    Technology and research make it difficult to copy
    Companies recognize potential
    NS and BMW have let Axion disclose relationship
    OEM - vehicle testing stage
    Stingy Management
    Strengths of Product - voltage equilization in strings, carbon negative electrode means no sulfization, safe, recyclable, works in wide range of temperatures, perhaps ideal for S/S applications due to cost, charge acceptance, number of cycles.
    Viridity partnership
    Have good industry contacts through Mr. Dantam

     

    WEAKNESSES
    Revenues still low
    Are entering new markets with PC - frequency regulation, power smoothing,
    FERC rulings are murky
    Testing periods are long
    Negative cash flow
    Marketing process takes long time.

     

    OPPORTUNITIES
    Norfolk Southern will soon begin testing NS999 and may purchase more batteries for further electric yard slugs
    Cooperation with NS on hybrid locomotive
    In talks with other RR’s
    Grid based storage opportunities - have several RFP’s out there
    Military Grid - RFP’s out there
    Residential PC - introduced in September,.marketed by Rosewater.
    Opportunities arising in other areas but TG can’t speak about them as have NDA’s.
    Rosewater to begin testing with Ontario
    Several OEM’s testing PbC.
    Oil rig application being marketed with Rosewater

     

    THREATS
    Just good enough battery chemistry wins, i.e. ultrabattery
    Running out of cash before can win contracts as testing periods drag on.
    New product that may not be understood
    Share price suffers with lack of orders and next round of financing goes off at low price.
    New government regulations on lead.
    New battery chemistries.
    Economy derails investment plans
    Government puts the kabash on renewable energy.
    Other chemistries may prove better for grid based applications
    15 May 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Well done, Metro. Under opportunities, add oil rigs.
    15 May 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    done
    15 May 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    had a 10k @ $.375 all day and not a nibble. Anyone else using Fidelity with better success? what's your secret?
    15 May 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Tim.
    I think it is kind of random. I've missed out before, but got in at today's lows with your broker
    15 May 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks anthlj, will try again tomorrow...
    15 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I'm with jakurtz and mr investor. Sentiment goes up and down like a wh***'s drawers on the concentrator. I think we are good. Price goes down after the CC, but I'm used to that.
    15 May 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Used Fidelity today and got filled at .38 this afternoon.
    Used another platform and got filled at .38 as well.

     

    Honestly, my secret is to decide a price point you are willing to buy and let the market come to you. If it never hit my limit of .38... oh well.... it wasn't meant to be. I guess I'm one of the invertebrates JP loves so much.

     

    Oh, Tim... one more thing.... if 10k doen't move... try 5k or 2k... and wait... sometimes a little patience works, but to my point above: you've gotta be O.K. if you don't get filled. There is always another day and another price point.

     

    Just MHO....FWIW
    15 May 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    OR. I am definitely a "meant to be" kind of guy and will play with smaller amounts...
    15 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1816) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I meant to add that my .38 fills were smaller amounts (under 10k). Like you, I normally work in 10k increments, but sometimes it doen't work.
    15 May 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10228) | Send Message
     
    Tim same for me. I put in an order later in the day and it filled in two executions at your intended buy price.
    15 May 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4101) | Send Message
     
    Belated kudos on excellent SWOT work Metro.
    16 May 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    There's a lot of sound wisdom running through these posts. After today, while sure I would have loved to hear about a big impending order and some fatter revenues, after today I think the PbC and Axion story is still more intact than ever. More opportunities, more interest, more markets, more confirmation. NS stopped testing other batteries for freak sake. If you're one of those other companies guess what, you just lost. And who won? WE WON. But no, it's just not happening as fast as we would like/hope. BooHoo. Yours truly included. So what. More waiting. We'll deal with it. We have up until now and we will some more. It is what it is, and frankly, I don't see anything of significance that has changed for the worse. Does anyone? Beyond more time required? There's been no negative outcome or failure of anything of substance, only lengthening of what already has seemed like an interminable timeline. But that's life. We're on the customers' clocks. We may have the time, but they have the watches, and that's just the way it is. Until it isn't. Me, I'm gonna drink me a tall glass of buck the hell up and then go out and pull some brush. ;)
    15 May 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    I remain certain that the PbC has a future. I also believe that AXPW will survive and thrive. It seems to me that the risk/reward balance is all in the favor of those who are long at the moment.
    Nevertheless, perhaps there is some risk that the company will not survive in its current form. I am NOT well qualified to speak to that but would love to see an exploration here of potential scenarios which could lead to the company filing for bankruptcy. What are the odds of that? Thanks.
    15 May 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    DLane> Not much chance based upon my business experience and what I know about Axion. Worry about that as time goes by and circumstances change in Axion's cash position after the next capital raise.
    15 May 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2032) | Send Message
     
    Usually a debt free companies need not file, unless it is advantageous to do so for other reasons, like breaking contracts. However the dollar cost is quite high in any case.

     

    I'd expect to see Axion cut costs and staff to the bone before we'd have to worry about it. The biggest threat for bankruptcy is debt, and Axion has no bonds. I wouldn't expect them to issue any either unless they were damn sure an order is about to come in. That would be the only time I'd like to see a debt issue vs another share sale.
    15 May 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Companies that don't borrow money don't end up facing a risk of bankruptcy. They may go through rounds of belt tightening but without debt almost anything is survivable.
    15 May 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message