These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
NEW CASTLE, Pa., May 15, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International Inc (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2012.
Net product sales increased to $1.8 million in 2012 from $1.0 million in 2011. Net product sales increased in 2012 compared to 2011 primarily due to the sale of specialty lead-acid batteries to a single customer who will sell these batteries under their brand, as well as carry the cost of inventory and provide the raw materials for production of these batteries.
Net loss for 2012 was $2.3 million or $0.02 per basic and diluted share compared to $2.4 million or $0.03 per basic and diluted share in 2011.
Excluding the cash inflow of approximately $8.6 million in net proceeds from our sale of common stock in the first quarter of 2012, our net cash flow for 2012 was negative $2.1 million compared to a negative $2.9 million in 2011, a reduction in net cash burn of $0.8 million.
Other highlights of our first quarter of 2012 include:
In January, we were awarded a purchase order from Siltek, Inc. confirming their participation in a Zero Energy Building for the US Navy in the Washington D.C. Naval Yard. Axion will be providing an array of its PbC batteries, system electronics and battery management system that together will serve as an example of Axion's "mini-cube".
Also in January, we appointed Vani Dantam to the new position of Senior Vice President/Business Development, Sales and Marketing. Vani brings to our company an extraordinary background that includes broad battery industry experience and proven leadership. He has expressed his confidence and personal commitment to the commercialization of our PbC Technology.
In February, we successfully concluded a funding of approximately $8.6 million in net proceeds from the sale of our common stock. The proceeds from this raise will be used for the near term funding of working capital, capital expenditures and corporate operations.
Last year we announced that we had received a series of orders for the production and immediate delivery of specialty flooded lead-acid batteries. This February we received guidance that the purchase orders are expected to continue at least through the end of 2012. The batteries are branded by the purchaser, and the purchaser will provide all raw materials and the carrying cost for the continuing order.
In April, in an event subsequent to the end of the quarter, we received an initial large scale order from Norfolk Southern (NS) for PbC batteries for use in a battery powered locomotive. This $400K purchase order is part of an overall total purchase order of $475K. This total purchase order will be shipped and deployed in the next 90 - 120 days. To date, this is the largest single PbC battery order that we have received.
Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "It has only been about six weeks since our last earnings release, but the first quarter of 2012 has been a busy one. I have previously mentioned that the road to PbC commercialization has been longer than we anticipated, but that we were finding the market opportunities, for our PbC product applications, larger and more diverse than we had initially anticipated. The first quarter of 2012 provided further proof of the market diversity for our technology. We have received numerous new requests for proposals and quotations, more than half of which have come from new markets for our product. And although these are new opportunities in new markets, it is the historical advantage of PbC batteries that makes the equation work. The old standby values that are as important today as they ever were and include: high charge acceptance; fast recharge rate; voltage consistency in large string applications; superior 'extreme temperature' performance; and low cost on a per cycle basis."
Granville concluded, "when you add these advantages to the historical PbC attributes - ease of manufacture on existing equipment worldwide; high rate of recyclability (99.1%) and the strong safety record of lead-acid batteries, it is easy to see why we feel our technology will be one of the ultimate winners in numerous energy storage market applications. And it is easy to see why so many potential customers agree with that premise."
LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
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Right-on Bang. Your last paragraph says it. Without the 300-400% projection everyone would have been very happy today with a nearly 200% increase over Q-1 2011, the NS order having gone through this Q and solid progress with multiple new clients in new markets as they make steps in the transition from R&D to commercial sales.
I still believe the projection is good and TG knows why he said it, I think it is our faulty speculation on the "How" that is the real problem.
I tip my hat to Axion Power Host for doing a great job of keeping us on the track. But with appreciation I bow to you for creating this unique and intellectually vibrant forum. I'm not aware of another quite like it. Thank you!
I too want to congratulate Maya for starting something special, and then having enough faith in the Concentrator concept to turn control over to the APH group which has done a yeoman's job.
Oops...the difference between multiplying by a thousand and multiplying by a thousand percent. That's why they won't let me wear green eyeshades. My embarrassed ego says delete the post, but I like your closing pun so much I have to leave it be.
Any Axionista with family or friends in Munich? It occurs to me there are probably only two-degrees of separation between us and the driver of a police car or taxicab with a demo-PbC under the hood. A first-hand report from a user may only be two phone calls away.
WDD, Pretty sure TG indicated that the next step would be fleet testing. If I heard that correctly then the opportunity to hunt one down in any fashion would be non existent because they don't yet exist. I would also venture a guess that if they did have them out in fleets access would be pretty tightly controlled.
Snooping on large industrial concerns is very difficult. It's probably easiest via computer by people much smarter than I in the area via illegal means. For the rest of us it is darn near impossible.
You put your finger on one of the two items from the CC that had me scratching my head. Unfortunately I was following on-line and thus could not ask a clarifying question.
What's with this "next step"? My understanding was akin to that expressed by Metroneanderthal a ways further on in this edition--that BMW already had a gaggle of test cars on the road, and I got that police car and taxicab notion from some Concentrator way back. Lafferty rightly points out that we might need to nail down our terminology--"test vehicles" versus "fleet testing". Of course, once the PbC really is out on the streets of Munich, it will be difficult to control the information; even if they bolt the hood shut the hack behind the wheel will still have an opinion of how well that Stop-Start system seems to be working.
The other dissonant part was on current number of employees (Stephan's question?). The Axion website still says 50-something, but in recent Concentrators I think we were speculating on 90 or so. Unfortunately, the question as phrased (no criticism intended) sought a comparison of current number to that from the turn of the year without nailing down the actual number, and TG responded "the same". If we had a spate of hiring in November, then his answer is correct. What we really want to know is how many employees right now?
All in all, I think my long-term investment dramatically remains a long-term investment. (Man, if it wasn't for the interesting conversation I wouldn't even stop by here--its like a receding glacier watching the drying paint watching the battery refuse to die.)
HTL is correct. The number was at 90 total employees as of December 31, 2011. Generally, I am still trying to figure out the right balance between trying to pin management down in CC questions versus giving them some room to run with my question.
I was hoping he would take the bait and be able say that the headcount was currently at 100 or 105. In my mind, that would have helped back up his excitement on the last call about increasing sales without having to give any revenue guidance whatsoever.
Unfortunately, he did not take the bait and I am still unsure of how proper it is to then shift into a more aggressive posture in such a forum.
WDD, I'm in the same boat as you are concerning the test phase BMW is in. I need to go back and do some research on the wording that TG used in the past. Perhaps he used incorrect wording or I don't remember well. I could have sworn he used the term "fleet" before instead of the word "test" or "test mules".
I am well aware of the meaning of the terms since I've spent a good deal of time in the industry in areas supporting R&D as well as concept, costing and launching programs so I certainly understand what Axion is going through in automotive.
On the staffing side I'm glad they have the flooded business for another year but beyond keeping/training their staff and covering some of the cost of those people and the plant being ready to make PBC I'm not really that interested in dissecting it any further. It's important but it doesn't really get much more interesting to me even if it doubles other than they manage it well if they choose to do so. It's PBC or bust and it better be clearer where they are this year before they raise funds again.
Automotive always takes toooooo long but believe me, it doesn't feel that way when you have to produce the deliverables.
IINDelco, Yes, this was the most disappointing revelation from the CC. The fact that they haven't actually "started" fleet testing yet but have only been testing in individual vehicles or at most a small number of them. In my mind that pushes any kind of auto roll out to at least 2014. Is that your opinion as well? You've always had a good feel for how long fleet testing goes, any insight considering that it hasn't started yet?
Labtech, If I go all the way back to my original thoughts on timing for automotive 2014 model year was pretty much the earliest I could see for an initial automotive app. If that were to happen they'd need a partner pretty much this year. Oh, And they need to freeze their design pretty darn soon as well. It's getting pretty tight. for this timing. Fleet vehicles should be very very close to representative product/process.
I thought that some low volume app a year earlier might be a long shot but that's pretty much out of the question now.
Tom has pretty consistently spoken of 2013 as the year for automotive and until he says something different I'm inclined to stay with that estimate even if my inner pessimist wants to push it back.
Yep, 2014 model year is late 2013 so even through my etched window I can see where his hopes lie. It sure is looking tougher as time passes though. This could change quite a bit with the right hand shakes. Of coarse the last statement needs to be tempered by the foggy window point as well.
It seems the guidance thing is completely off the table now. The 300-400% thing looks to remain a mystery going forward. At least it will keep all us Axionistas chirping. The saga continues.
What I understand of what TG said is that, moneywise, the ball just isn't in their court. Like us, they're stuck waiting for the customers to buy... Maybe it will be soon and maybe it won't. There's no way of knowing. That's why I'm staying invested just not to take any chances.
I learned all I wanted to know, namely there is an agreement between their flooded LA battery customer to continue using Axion's services through 2012 and the volume will simply depend on the individual PO's issued. As for NS purchases beyond the current order any announcements will come from NS and not Axion which makes sense to me. The rest will come when it comes.
Stefan, I hope that by the time of the annual meeting the management team has a better answer to the question "What does success look like 6 months out -- 12 months out." The question regarding general milestones was asked by the analyst in the last call and I asked it again in this call. No one is asking for financial guidance or proprietary details -- just some general performance measures for the management team. Mentioning 4 market opportunity areas does not cut it for me (although I will say that rolling out the residential cube in September does come the closest to one milestone.) As a shareholder I want to know in general terms what constitutes (A+) performance vs. (C-) for the management team. In other words, what are the general accomplishments shareholders can expect from the AXPW team.
Mercy his best cut at answering that question in the last conference call was NS, some Powercube sales, plus the now inoperative 300%-400% 2012 and 2013 remark. NS's order did come through but nothing yet on Powercubes. I have a feeling there is a possibility NS may have taken Axion to the woodshed over the 50-75 locomotive orders over the next five years remark since TG emphasized any future NS buys will be announced by NS.
I agree. However, I am caught in a dilemma b/c I hate it when targets are missed and I understand that he felt burned by predicting NS a couple times too early.
If he has absolutely no control over the timing of the contract, does that really grade his performance if a development does not come by his targeted date?
It would have been nice if, just as with any *major* project, he would share either accomplishments that signified "mileposts" or time-lines they were shooting for or both.
However, being in a transition stage with so much completely out of their control I think I would've avoided giving such mileposts too.
No use throwing myself on the grill just waiting for someone to torch me when some date was missed because a *customer* failed to meet their own initial goals (a la NSC).
Based on what TG just said, I don't expect a change in disclosure approach for a long time, and I'm fine with that. I was very surprised 6 weeks ago when TG gave guidance. Most unusual in my experience, anyway, with micro caps, especially ones that deal with giants. Now he's just back to the standard approach.
As TG said, in response to the back-door questions to get guidance, "that is a loaded question."
Stefan, I agree with your point concerning the level of control TG has over timing. You may recall that in the past he has tried to offer incentives to pull ahead orders and saw no progress. I can understand that with NS. After the first failure on the NS999 and given the same players are carrying the torch for the rehab., I can't see them being motivated by anything other than extreme caution to make sure they didn't repeat former mistakes.
I agree, Bang, but milestones do not require anyone to divulge names or proprietary details. Here I'll provide some imaginary milestones as examples for a 6-12 month period:
1) Target and commence sales cycle discussions with 20 new potential AXPW partners;
2) Advance 2 new products to pre-commercialization/... stage
3) Acquire 1 more purchase order from existing OEM/third party relationship in progress;
4) Roll-out 3 new PbC applications (complete with product specs, pricing, distribution, and manufacturing-ready state);
etc. etc.
These example are illustrative (rather than realistic) of how management can earn more confidence with long-term investors who just need to know how to gauge success for AXPW. Even hearing what Mr. Dantam's general priorities are -- would help. If the milestones are achieved the share price will follow.
re- the 300% - 400% revenue growth projection, iindelco shared a thought on APC99 that bears keeping in mind. In recent CC, TG has talked about revenues across all activities/product lines. Those product lines, and revenues derived therefrom, include PC systems of which PbC batteries are likely a minority component. Assuming a PC costs ~$1 mil. and contains 1,080 PbCs, eight PC sales would amount to 100% of 2011 AXPW revenues but include only ~$3.2 mil. for PbC batteries (NS P.O. for $400,000 X 8).
"The woodshed" scenario strikes me as quite possible and delay of further orders is not beyond question.
Stefan, Very understandable that you "hate it when targets are missed." It's always tough in any public company to be held accountable. The goal should be to outline what you think you can deliver -- but not outlining much is a problem. OK, I have said enough about my personal point of view.
IINDelco, This seems to be the same with auto. TG's comment that Axion was working on "their schedule" (ie auto OEMs) and that Axion has "completed testing on this end" for the PbC makes it clear that they've done all they can do to satisfy the auto OEMs on their end and now they are just waiting for them to "start" fleet testing and then get back to Axion. Back to watching paint drying time.
LabTech, Yep that's the way it is. You have to realize the auto company is testing any number of things and the team that would be working on the PBC battery would have to get in line with all the other teams looking to test their systems/components. Plus some teams components overlap other teams components because they function as a system. For PBC this would be a new BMS, perhaps new dynamic brake system, perhaps new starter/generator etc. And if any of your unknown partners falls behind you go with them. OH, And you also have the platform team managing risk and they might decide they are putting too much technology on a core vehicle that can't afford the risk. They might just say no and you're off to see if your other teams are going to support your teams proposal for inclusion.
Many other things going on but as you can see what's happening on the vehicle platform level really adds delays to the numerous suppliers looking to launch with the vehicle. And there are a ton of considerations that are way outside of the control for the supplier. You're really in the rumble seat along for the ride knowing you can fall out on to the road at any time even if you do everything perfect to stay seated.
Almost always is with micro caps. Most crash. And the ones that do finally get up to speed have plenty of bags to empty.
Axion is a flea trying to get a bunch of elephants to dance with them. Hey one just extended his trunk to help us aboard. Let's hope we don't give him a reason to sneeze.
How do you measure managment of a bio-tech in R&D testing their drug through phase trials?
We have no traditional methods of gauging progress, can't do it by revenue, can't do it by profits, you can only do it by the fact they are still standing and still moving forward with tests of old OEM's and initiating tests with new OEM's based on the success of the existing testing. It is the nature of the beast on this one guys. That is why the risk is high and so is the reward.
I know we are all tired of hearing the word testing but that is the stage this company is at.
Axion is in an odd business where success is frequently measured by still being in the game with customers who would prefer that you say nothing. There have been some pretty major successes over the last couple years but many of them have been kept under wraps because of the customer's insistence on controlling the flow of information.
The worst thing the guys could do is establish criteria and measurement dates, and then say "we met all our goals but can't talk about any of them." Were I in Tom's shoes, I'd hate to be pinned down to specifics when I knew there was a good chance I'd be precluded from talking about my accomplishments.
For the last eight years I've been awaiting news of the first bird in the hand. We got that news a couple weeks ago in a multi-billion dollar niche that's tried the competitors and selected the PbC. That fact doesn't give me much of a feel for timing, but it certainly increases my confidence that the others will follow suit in their own sweet time.
well jak, it is still possible to lay out expectations. for example: what are the markets they are developing? how are they spending resources to develop those markets? then a CC call is about measuring progress towards those goals.
i think the bio-tech comparison is not a very good one. bio-techs are at the whim of a government agency. axpw has multiple potential business partners and no one agency (see exide) is going to stop them.
i am still a big holder, but sold 44 percent of my position yesterday. i simply couldn't justify tying up that much cash as other, option-able, opportunities present themselves. it's easier to build and maintain large long positions when i can still generate income through sale of covered puts/calls.
selling is harder when i've some idea of the strategies management is implementing AND a way to measure progress along those strategic lines.
Tragic, your evaluation is fair. Most people's investments need some solid foundation of quantifiable data to tell them what the company is worth, completely understandable but Axion is not that company. I still think some don't really have a grasp of what stage Axion is at in their development. The parameters you outline are for companies like a maxwell or A123 etc. Companies past the R&D stage and clearly in the commercial stage generating revenue with their proprietary product and having some type of control over their sales, and some type of data points on the demand of their product through sales.
They can tell us as much as they know right now which is that they have proven their product to NS, they are proving it to auto's and their are new markets and new potential customers that they are proving it to. They have hired a VP of Marketing and business development to further the commercialization process along and establish a solid market for their product. Once that market is established through some commercial sales they will have some data points to begin quantifying future growth and potential -- they are not there yet and they are far, far from being valued there.
To create your own fair value of Axion at this stage is very subjective because you only have what they have been doing with their product through non-commercial sales to base your speculation on, that is why so many people have such vastly different expectations for the company.
Jak, i was able to generate some income in my trading account thanks to the axpw sale yesterday and i still have some regrets about letting those shares go. i typically don't hold many companies but i guess it boils down to how much cash i'll entrust to management.
i have to admit that it was exactly management that brought me to axpw in dec and has had me buying since. i think i just over-reached, and that's a new thing for me. i never ran out desire to buy more axpw, which some might find troubling. it's a combination of opaque CCs, oil dropping and NOK getting cheaper while i can still sell near term calls at 3.50.
enough enumeration about my investing. its just hard to let go of shares, and feel envious of Poul for reaching 1mil at the same time. it's not about the value of shares (which is still undervalued) its value in comparison to something else with regards to personal risk.
my comfort is that making money now = cash on hand to buy more axpw. even if i pay more, with time comes information/reduced risk.
One should never apologize for taking a profit, particularly if he sees another market opportunity that seems likely to mature more quickly. I tried playing the market timing game as a younger man and learned I wasn't very good at it. I eventually got tired of adding to my repertoire of stock market fishing stories, as in *the one that got away.* Now I only invest when I figure I know more than everybody else in the market. It's easy to do with confidence when I've represented companies as legal counsel and have spent enough time back-stage, but it would be a lot harder if I didn't have the first hand knowledge.
Jon, thanks for the comment. i will say that options allow me to invest without knowing much of anything. i can just sell insurance. it's where i retreat to when things get cloudy. that said it is your intimate knowledge of axpw's product and ability to share that knowledge that led me to a wonderful company.
I can share some of my insights and a lot of my knowledge, but I can't ever give a reader the full depth of my knowledge and experience because those things come from living the history instead of reading about it. No matter how hard we try, you'll never understand Axion the way I do which means that I can sleep well taking risks that any sane man would consider unacceptable. At the end of the day you have to the things and make the choices that seem most sensible to you. I believe Axion's a great opportunity for those that are willing to dig in and understand what they're buying. I don't believe for a moment that it's the only great opportunity.
Bang, I liked the way you put it some time back, it is like the rain, it comes when it comes. I wish we had more guidance but we have a speculative investment that we expect to hit big at some point. I wanted that point to be a couple of years ago but, it is like the rain.
I appreciated TG's repeat of the phrase "that we can talk about". I infer he has military applications being tested and possibly other OEM's who have asked for non-disclosure. I think that the charge acceptance would be particularly valuable to delivery trucks and garbage trucks. Does anyone remember any talks about those applications?
Not that I recall exactly on a specific application, but I do remember a discussion about UPS trucks turning off their engines every time they make a delivery. That actually happened to me a couple months ago at a stop light. A UPS truck was stopped behind me and when the light turned green, the truck started its engine again ...
And hybrid buses. But they are using ultracapacitors, l-ion and Nickel Metal Hydride instead. I do know its been a rocky road with many setbacks for first and second generation products with those technologies. But PbC does not appear to be on their radar.
Garbage trucks are also starting to use hydraulic accumulators in hydraulic hybrid systems (from Eaton and Parker). These accumulators are able to capture more braking energy than batteries.
“We decided to use hydraulic hybrid technology. . .since it recovers more than three times the brake energy and an overall 30 percent lower cost of ownership than any electric hybrid technology available today” http://bit.ly/JQKPSF
While I don't expect a significant order any time soon, I do believe that the military is looking hard at the temperature and recharge/reliability stats of PbC. Think reliability and safety. A dead vehicle battery can kill in military situations. That could come before fuel cost savings of other applications.
Seeing how Axion has been testing other batteries, I liked TG's comments about the competitions' batteries. I don't like that we have no time frame on potential sales, but understand the NDA's and that it is the customer's decision - just the nature of the beast.
I was glad to hear Tom speak plainly about the relative performance gains from carbon additives, the ultrabattery and the PbC; and the relative merit of going to more exotic and costly carbons. A clear statement that they don't see enough of a threat to justify the legal costs is a solid expression of confidence. The same is true for the exotic carbons.
1. Carbon sheeting process: I thought this was automated now? He said: it is ahead of schedule? What does that mean?
2. Residential PC...I thought it was ready for sale in Sept. at the Indy Home Show...with demo's out before then. Now he says will be faster to mkt. than other areas? So it won't be ready for sale, just a demo at the home show.
3. Current production will meet our needs now, no reason for added line. So no order ramp in near future. This is why he probably dodged any revenue increase numbers.
4. oil rigs..he only mentioned "manufacturers" nothing about retrofitting existing rigs, I take it he is working with new rigs only?.
5. He is definitely on others timeline, auto's are slow, fleet testing is next step, is this next year and a real model in '14 or '15 ?
I see nothing new in the call except there is more interest now, and he says the competitive products do not work as advertised. (we know that) I still think there is a production issue with the carbon sheeting process, it is ahead of schedule but not completed yet. As has been said, orders come when they come. But nothing he can lay his hat on. Even NS OTR loco will probably be longer in coming if history is a guide. Which is what I thought, get the 999 running first-then the OTR later. Gonna be a long summer guys, without a surprise maybe even a year. TG did not sound nearly as upbeat today as a few weeks ago (to me anyway, and avoided any numbers or milestones)
1. In the past, the carbon sheeting process was the most labor intensive part of making PbC electrode assemblies. What everybody's twisted off on is the idea that there's some sort of problem. The reality is that they found a way to go from a multi-pass process with significant hand work to a fully automated single roll system. In the year end call Tom said:
"Yes, carbon sheeting is something that we’ve planned on for some time. We’ve devoted time and effort and money to that roll production. We’re producing carbon right now in more than adequate quantities to meet our needs for manufacturing. We are on schedule. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule in this roll production process.
If we received an order for 10 million batteries tomorrow, quite frankly, we wouldn’t be able to meet that order over the next couple of months. But, it’s our plan to move forward with the carbon sheeting, with the rolled sheeting process and we have that. We’ve been working, and we have people that work only on that project. We have equipment. We’ve moved things around. We’ve cleared out some areas here that will just be devoted to that process and I’m already starting to talk too much about it. So, I’m going to stop there."
What you think of as a problem is a huge accomplishment that I view as extraordinarily good news. They were doing installation work six weeks ago. Assuming that there's some kind of problem because the installation isn't done yet is grasping for negative straws.
3. Current electrode production capacity is in the neighborhood of 125 batteries per shift. A new electrode line can be ordered and installed in six weeks. This board of directors will not spend millions of dollars expanding capacity until they have an order in hand that requires the expansion. There are no Ray Kinsellas on the Axion team.
I don't recall the source of my information, or the validity, but IIRC, wasn't fleet testing to have begun with BMW in summer 2011? I was surprised when TG said fleet testing is next step. Is my assumption about BMW correct, or did I dream that up, or did I hear his comment on fleet testing wrong?
Metro: my understanding: we need to distinguish using the PbC in test vehicles, which is being done, from employing the PbC in fleet testing. The latter is larger-scale than what's being done. Test vehicles is all we ever knew of, although I don't think we were precisely distinguishing these before.
I don't know that managing expectations is possible in a situation like this. We get to hear bits and pieces of management's expectations, but those pesky NDAs coupled with stockholders who not only listen to the words but discuss them with each other in great detail makes for a very tough dynamic. It's particularly difficult when none of the timing decisions are in your hands and talking out of school can be severely punished. The most telling line in the call was "we're buckling our seat belts." You don't do that a year or two before you expect to need them.
You are correct. Similar to how NS will have a test loco now but a "fleet test" would require dozens more (and years of time).
As of yet Axion has not been deployed a "fleet test" in automotive. Also, since the auto numbers are so large I'd expect a fleet to mean hundreds of vehicles.
Yes, I think the Nov. CC was the source of our last update on the *kind* of testing being done by BMW: "We have regularly scheduled calls with them [BMW] a few times a month every month to report progress. They’re doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here and that testing has proceeded beyond bench testing. I can’t really get into a whole lot more detail about that, but we certainly are testing with them and with other automotive OEMs." So we knew it was beyond bench, but we tended not to precisely distinguish between test vehicles and fleet testing, and so some were hoping for the latter.
I went back and looked at old 10-Q's and 10-K and I was optimistically and naively not differentiating between the terms "vehicle testing" and "fleet testing". Thanks Lafferty
An observation on "home sized" or residential PCs: Anything sold to an individual or for use by an unsophisticated group has to be both bullet proof AND idiot proof. Until the software "damage prevention" protocols are fully tested you DO NOT want to allow a PC into the suburban environment.
The PC has to be protected against everything from miss-wiring the AC line to the PC to placing a hard short across the output. If the user can access the actual PbC battery terminals in the housing, the game is over.
That is why actual field testing is needed. Idiots can be so clever!
Agreed...but I don't "look under the hood" at furnaces/AC...it would take some time, but I'd say private market small service company support would suffice. I have to believe most buyers of solar utilize the vendor for servicing.
Sand Energy/SilTek has a Facebook account and recently took some pictures of the Space Shuttle from the Naval Yard Zero Energy building project. In these pictures you can see the solar panel framework that I suspect is installed on the top of the parking structure adjacent to the Welcome Center.
It's not much but it's nice to put a visual to the project. I got to spend some time there in late Feb but the parking structure was beyond public access...
I wish I had level 2 to see the game between feeders and flippers. Not that the short term game has much to do with the long term price, but I just find it interesting none the less.
Fellow Axionistas - We bought this stock for the home run potential. (For a penny stock, we worry whether the stock is real or whether the product is going to be accepted by the market. So far, we see this is a real stock. It has a proven product and users are requesting RFP.)
For those stock holders who do not want to wait, I will be glad to buy your shares but at a lower price; how about .35 or lower !!!
About fleet testing and expectations...here's a comment I wrote back on August 16. I believe the comment is still valid, and on track (except about the DOE grant).
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Bang & SBH: Perhaps I need to do a little evincing that I unfortunately may have let slip by.
Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so.
Why hasn't this happened already? Is the Detroit OEM ahead or behind, too, is a question with now scant feedback, due to the DOE not providing the grant.
I construed Avril's input to be that Axion will only be providing/selling to BMW potentially that amount of batteries during this year and into next.
Subliminally, maybe that's why I expect the next big announcement will come from the RR industry, and not auto, in previous comments.
However, I did see an Axion car leaving the local Hampton Inn, which John and I assumed, during our 100 mile long conversation across the PA Turnpike, when I was travelling back to Philly, to be a test vehicle using the PbC battery. It was not a BMW, by the way, at first glance, as it was pulling out of the parking lot when I was entering. I truly wish I had noticed the make--Hampton Inn has a strange, poorly designed entrance/exit, and I was being the kind one, letting that Axion small-ish car get out, before I entered. Or crashed!
Really enjoying yours and others banter, because that triggers a lot of stuff I failed to before write about.
JP, I do not appreciate your reference to "you are grasping for negative straws".
I stated questions for clarity, not negative straws...anything short of boasting this stock to $100 / sh is considered negative here.
Your track record of late has not been all that great on predictions.... the offering price was lower than expected more have "flipped" than expected the toll contract growth numbers to grow 300% qtr/qtr Revenue expectations for qtr. 1 & prob. qtr. 2 this year
I could go on...but I won;t as this is my last post here until they do hit the home run, then it will be a one word post. Good luck all.
LT, I'll be sad to see you go if you do stop posting here.
Constructive critique, asking hard questions, etc., with regard to *any* company is absolutely essential, and I would not be at all comfortable participating in the APC or, frankly, holding AXPW, if the blog neglected to include this.
I too would be sad to see you go. My problem is not that you ask tough questions, but that you ask questions and then add an overlay of expectations that don't necessarily mesh with the facts.
I've never claimed the gift of prophecy and do my best to avoid predicting anything. I share my expectations, but when it comes to the future I have no particular insights, either positive or negative.
The offering price was based on market conditions and timing issues nobody could have anticipated. Nobody is prescient enough to know that sort of thing in advance.
We know how many shares have changed hands since the offering and that total is still within the range of my prior experience. Once again, nobody who doesn't have precise details can do more than speak in generalities.
I made no particular predictions about what revenues would be. I did, however, offer a plausible explanation of how revenues could ramp to a 300% YoY growth without spectacular news on the PbC front. Part of that plausible explanation was based on an inaccurate assumption that upgrades to the second flooded line were complete instead of being work in process. Bad assumptions lead to bad conclusions.
You sound a little frustrated and disappointed which is always a function of expectations.
We all really do need to focus on managing our expectations and although we're fastening our seat-belts we should also settle in for the long haul that this company is destined to be.
As I said, by all means take a breather, LT. But I hope it's not for too long as I have appreciated your comments even where they express pessimism and criticism.
Some obvious frustration setting in...understandable. Depending on one's time frame, if shorter term, it can be excruciatingly frustrating. (See tragicslip selling 44%) As many have posted, the nature of the beast...penny stock...R&D company...NDAs. JP can be blunt and direct...don't take it personal.
Some time away may be healthy for you...it's been a long road and I've only been here 2 years!
"Your track record of late has not been all that great on predictions...."...if John were that prescient, I suspect he'd be doing something else besides law. Again, I think some frustration seeping in from many corners.
Did TG say 300-400% increase in total sales, or PbC sales? It just seems to me that FLA sales couldn't possibly increase that much. There are plenty of suppliers for that and Axion is trying hard to sell PbC's. I can forgive the sales team for not drumming up FLA sales when they need to close PbC deals. I'm still holding long to wait for some big PbC orders.
Among other things, I liked the shout-out to the existing shareholders in the 35 cent placement. Very smart to keep them in the back pocket, in case they're needed again.
Mr. Investor, I caught that remark also. It seemed to be TG's way of letting us know that there were very few flippers. They were mainly investors who were already loyal Axion stockholders.
Yep, for me, TG was doing a 2 for 1 with his comments--keep them ("that contributed the vast majority of dollars to this raise") in good graces and a signal to us about the flippers being a small number.
Anyway, sounds and looks like some board members selling down if not all the way out today. A lil catfish food drifting down.
Here are some of my highlights from the call/Earnings Release:
1. During the discussion of Vani Dantam, Mr. Granville stated that in Q1, Axion more than doubled it's "opportunity base" that was in place at year-end. That would imply at least five, if not more, new projects under discussion.
2. Norfolk Southern's order means that "they have stopped testing other products". It seemed clear to me that Mr. Granville was trying to make the point that the NS order was a VERY important milestone that investors don't seem to fully appreciate (remember the stock price was stagnant after the news). He may also have been making the point to potential customers that they should skip the preliminary evaluation of the PbC and go straight to application specific testing.
3. If we incorporate the info in Mayascribe's note above about fleet testing, it would seem that any kind of commercial launch for the 2014 model year would seem to be unlikely.
4. I share the frustration over the flooded contract and while it's been beat to death here's my 2 cents. Given that it was renewed in February, it is possible that no production at all took place in January and only limited production in February. So, it is quite possible that the run-rate on this order entering Q2 is much higher than the quarterly total would imply (even 2x). Given Mr. Granville's conservative nature and how things on the PbC side seems to stretch out even from his perspective, I firmly believe Mr. Granville's 300% comment related virtually entirely to the Flooded contract and that when he made the comment, the run rate, or firm orders that he knew he can deliver, were in-hand.
Remember, not only has he been burned by PbC orders taking longer than expected, but the business from the flooded contract when it was first announced turned out to be much delayed due to the economic downturn.
Yes, the 300% comment wasn't Mr. Granville's best moment, but I can't believe he would repeat the exact same mistake with the same customer again. Now, will it mean all that much given that the margins are so low? I also think not. Hopefully, it'll give us a few more months of extra runway until the next capital raise.
--3. If we incorporate the info in Mayascribe's note above about fleet testing, it would seem that any kind of commercial launch for the 2014 model year would seem to be unlikely.
Please remember that I wrote the above comment last year. With the EZ "EPA" forcing stop/start forward due to the new carbon emission regs, with pretty severe penalties, I believe the model year of 2014 IS the year. Meaning next year, BMW will likely begin using the PbC in some of their models.
IIRC, the BMW cruisers have been undergoing testing now for a year. Putting out the timeline of 2015, would hence mean that BMW would need in excess of three years to perform real life testing.
I have a hard time figuring that, especially because cop cars take a lot of abuse, and (maybe) are used round the clock.
The biggest take I got from today's CC was that nothing out there can do what the PbC can do, because of both the electrode's uniqueness, as well as the activated carbon cathode.
Any battery using a lead cathode, as it has been proven many times now (including Exide's, JCI's and East Penn's AGM batteries) can not offer up the performance and durability that the PbC holds. This science can not be disproven.
What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. The whole auto industry is heading for a massive amount of p-oed customers, who buy stop/start vehicles, which effectively won't be gaining the full % of fuel savings; will only work...sometimes.
>Mayascribe ... I think the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with fingers crossed that the solution at-hand makes the warranty expiration. Might need to check the fine print.
DRich: If you can show me any test that has any stop/start lead cathode-type battery exceeding six months before degrading to being basically non-functioning, then I will heed to your fine print.
I agree, it seems the whole auto industry is snorting "hopium."
One thing to keep in mind: JP has pointed out that regulators woork on the basis of *available* technology.
He's posited that when the PbC can be reliably produced in quantity, the regulators will then be paying attention to the failures of the s/s systems to work reliably because there *is* available technology.
We are nearing that point. ELBC may highlight that the time is approaching that mandatory long-lived reliable s/s is on the way soon.
Perhaps the lead-acid suppliers are looking forward to extra sales as AGM batteries for stop-start need to be replaced in order for the system to function again.
D Lane: So far, as I see it, the car dealerships will only charge the battery, not replace it. The winners will be the dealership Coke and Snicker machines. ;-)
I see class action lawsuits as a definite possibility.
>Mayascribe ... Data? You want ... DATA? What? Sales brochures aren't good enough? Sales need to be made, bottom lines met, regulatory excuses need to be put in place ..... data (harrumph) ... I swear, some people.
If we are willing to live in a world where banks can be trusted to behave ... and we believe them, then why can't chemistry be trumped by brochures. Inquiring minds want to know. After all, we are just trying to deal to the public. What would they know and, besides, what are they going to do .... sue? The mess can be cleaned up and fixed later.
Sales first. It's all about the *NEW*. As I remember auto air conditioning didn't work so well in the beginning.
"What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. The whole auto industry is heading for a massive amount of p-oed customers, who buy stop/start vehicles, which effectively won't be gaining the full % of fuel savings; will only work...sometimes."
When I joined this comment board several months back, one of the first things to hit me was that growing problem (it actually p's me off, and I'm not even a customer)--just a matter of time before it's revelation goes viral into a huge mess--customers, regulators, environmentalists, almost everybody. The sooner they adopt PbC, the better. I think that the problem may get to the point of being a phase change--in what looks like all of the sudden (to others!), everybody and his brother realizes the PbC is the s/s answer they need for heavy hotel loads. And we're the only one who's got'm. THAT'S just one of many reasons why I'm still long and patient.
Anyone else sense a bit of "we've got a problem here" desperation in the writing on the 13th ELBC's website?
"Norfolk Southern's order means that "they have stopped testing other products". It seemed clear to me that Mr. Granville was trying to make the point that the NS order was a VERY important milestone that investors don't seem to fully appreciate (remember the stock price was stagnant after the news). He may also have been making the point to potential customers that they should skip the preliminary evaluation of the PbC and go straight to application specific testing."
I don't know if the NS order by itself means that they have stopped testing other batteries, but the fact that TG made the direct statement that "NS is no longer testing other batteries" is a very strong statement on his part which I don't think he would have made if he didn't know it to be true.
Maya, Yes, I think the auto industry is going to be in for a rude awakening when they start selling SS as a real option in the US with LA or AGM batteries. They may have been able to pull that diminishing returns crap in Europe, but the US mindset is "if it doesn't work the way it was promised I'm going to sue!"
I have a friend who has a Saturn Vue start/stop and he's on his third battery but he says the dealer always sells it to him for cost (approx 100) dollars. I guess the industry figures most wont even bother when the system goes out and others will just deal with it by getting a battery every 2 years versus the typical 4-6+ year replacement. That seems like a lot of headache to get 3-5%. Like TG said on the call if they want 10%+ fuel savings they'll need the PbC in urban conditions. Hopefully the consumer demands more from their cars.
As a consumer, I don't care who has given their stated or tacit blessing of a solution--if that part of my new car doesn't work after only a few months, I'm not a happy camper.
It shouldn't have been offered in the first place.
The consumer will likely need to be educated about the problem. A discussion with Consumer Reports or JD Power and Associates might be useful. JD Power made its reputation a long time ago when it was the first research company that reported the problem in the engine seal for the then new Rotary engine.
Ding! Ding! Ding! Sorry Li-ion, Sorry Li-FePO4, Sorry Ni-Zn, Sorry NiCl, Sorry NaS, Sorry every other LA vendor, you didn't make it. Now, how 'bout a Fresca? Hmm? hmm?
I think ELBC is going to be a watershed event one way or the other. It's where we're really going to find out if we really do have *the* most compelling solution for SS/MH. The issue's profile was raised two years ago with the Ford and BMW presentations. There's been plenty of time for other actors to try to rise to the challenge that SS presents to existing technologies. Many of those wannabee solutions are going to get an airing. The whole issue is going to get an airing. We may learn disturbing things about good-enough competition. We may hear exciting things that all-but confirm PbC's outright superiority. Clearly the whole issue of SS has a huge radar signature now. Half the conference seems focused on SS/microhybrid battery demands and SS/microhybrid battery performance in one way or another.
While I like the sentiment, if we kill the SS market before it gets out of its infancy, then there won't be one for Axion to sell its battery to. Not to mention that the auto OEMs aren't exactly going to be appreciative of Axion doing that. If you ever watch the show Mad Men, I would point to a scene this year in which Don (the main character) is receiving an award for a letter he wrote about the tobacco industry. The men giving him the award are all pillars of industry, slapping him on the back for doing the right thing for the American Cancer Society, on who's board they all are. However, when Don makes a comment about doing business with some of them he is rudely told that none of them will ever do business with him because he bit the hand that fed him. And that...was unforgivable.
Like your post, 48, except for it determining whether the PbC is the most compelling. I'm not sure if we'll be able to tell from that conference--I'm think'n only orders/design wins will do that. Money talks, kinda thing. Sure looks like the UltraBattery is going to have more speakers talk'n it up. Maybe there will be some more crystalizing in minds that the answer is that there are several acceptable answers--maybe UB for light s/s, PbC for heavy, etc. Right tool for the job. Seems like the current tool is too broadly used.
Labtech, It's hard to read too much into TG communication in the area of testing ending. If the testing is done and they chose to go with PBC it surely means that Axions offering satisfies their needs. It does not however exclude all of the other batteries being tested. Could be that another group like lithium ion, as an example, passed as well. Then when they did a full analysis of the application PBC was chosen based on other advantages such as perhaps cost, safety, bms simplicity etc.
I am BTW in agreement with Mr. Granville concerning the importance of the NS selection. I think the market is ignoring how important this really is. I will admit though that I might be wrong in my thinking that the general market is not appreciating this as much as they should using stock price as the measuring stick. There are many other factors that drive short term share price such as overall market conditions, alternate investor interests etc that well could be trumping NS announcement.
Mr, I couldn't quite formulate it to really express what I meant. The asterisks were an attempt to convey that the status of "the most compelling solution" was a thesis up for examination and not established fact. The conference of course won't establish it as fact either, only serve to further support or otherwise undermine the thesis. While we here mostly believe PbC is the hands down best, we don't actually know, though we do have good reason to believe it is so. The conference should smoke out a lot of potential competing solutions, and thus we and everyone else should gain a much better basis for comparison. Ultimately, it's money that talks for sure, and if we're the one, or one of the few, that's standing tallest by weeks end, then more of that money is going to start talking to us.. ;)
IINDelco, I don't disagree about the other batteries. It's like using a Li-ion battery for SS in a micro or mild hybrid. Sure you can do it. Sure it will probably work. But when you add in the cost difference and worries about things like temp variations and such, the PbC just made the most sense and so they stopped testing. And I include this first order of PbC batteries as continued testing, since this is really where the proof in the pudding will be shown.
Boy, I don't know if it's just me but days like today, with so much discussion, really make the format of this form difficult to navigate. Not a big deal because it doesn't happen too often. Could you imagine trying to do this for say AAPL. :(
iindelco, are you seeing the orange "new comment" flags on every new post? If not, then complete sympathy on the navigation. If so, they make it a lot easier and more pleasant to track. MUCH better than brand X (the mechanics of which I find almost infuriating) For myself, I haven't had the orange flags work in the concentrator for a couple of weeks now... anyone else *still* having the same problem? They seem to work okay for me on normal articles, just not on instablogs...
48, I have had no problems with SA and the orange flag issue. Two computers and my droid x phone. Different operating systems. Flawless connection. My computer is 4 years old with new MS 7. Laptop the old OS. My phone? New. Whatever it is.
481' > "I haven't had the orange flags work in the concentrator for a couple of weeks now...anyone else *still* having the same problem?"
Yes, but it is sporadic. Frequently as I scroll between flagged new comments that are spaced several messages apart I spot a few messages I had not seen before.
Ahhh, I have a much older operating system on my old HP laptop that I use for the internet. I'm running Vista. I'll try jumping on one of the other newer desk tops and see if that's the problem.
Sure, The guys winning all the contests have all the sweet new tech. Meanwhile they steal the 0.0001 USD bounties out of the pockets of the poor bottom feeders. (snicker)
sorry for the timelate reply iindelco, but at just above where the comments start you should see a checkbox labeled: "Track new comments on this article" Up until a couple of weeks ago, when I checked that for any particular article (or instablog) then anytime a new comment was posted, I'd get an orange flag up in the top right of the menubar (near my username) which would tell me which articles had new comments.. then upon opening the article, any new comments would be flagged, directly on each comment, with a small orange banner to denote new. Opening the article would take you right to the firstmost new comment, and then you could scroll down from there to each subsequent one. Made it very easy to keep track. Now without them, it's quite a bit more of a chore. One thing I haven't tried yet, but will, and then will report back, is to sign out and then sign back in, perhaps that will clear up my problem... I have a Win7 system using chrome browser. Will brb and advise outcome....
Well drat. I went and cleared cache, nuked cookies...signed out... signed in...and... bupkis. No orange flags for me. drat. I will go back to cursing the darkness for a while more.
I had problems with this last month. The solutions I discovered: - don't have any tracked articles on which you have not read the new comments on in weeks - don't have more than 4 unread messages in your SA mail in-box.
IINDelco, I've always had problems with the orange flags as well, but it has more to do with my internet software than operating system. I get my email update via AOL, which for some unknown reason, doesn't show the orange flags next to the new posts when I follow the link in my email updates. However, if I open my AOL email by first opening Internet Explorer, or using a Mac, go to AOL.com and follow the updates link that way I see the orange flags for new posts. My problem is that I'm too lazy to do that all the time, so I just scroll down every time and look at the date stamp as I'm going. So my guess is that it isn't a Vista issue as much as a internet software issue.
Long ago and far away ... before I realized how unresponsive SA is, I posted suggestions for improvements. The minimal one, in Jan. of ... '10 or was it '11, was to get the flagging working properly.
Moving up, a "next new comment" navigation button (dependent on that first item working correctly). Beyond that, better indents of threads and collapsed threads (flagged if a new comment was in a collapsed thread). Last was a real message board format.
Adding to what others have said. I keep multiple tabs open in my browser. In one, go to your "My Feed" on SA and put the url on the bookmark toolbar.
Then click on that when you want to get notifications *now*.
If anything (everything) works right, you'll get a list of articles and instablogs you're following that have new comments down the right side and (sporadically?) the orange notification box in the upper right. You can also click that little "clipboard" on the SA "toolbar" that appears on the right between "Contributor Center" and your ID drop-down menu.
48, Again. I have Vista, Win7, and the google OS. My orange flags always appear. My menu button at the top lets me know about new comments even on ancient articles.
You are not experiencing a SA problem. You are experiencing an SA and your software/hardware problem. All I know is that I know nothing about software or hardware. SA has always just worked for me.
I do remember having issues with chrome a long time back. My browser is firefox and it is wonderful.
"What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. "
I believe that is part of the challenge...getting PbC in front of them. A long lead time, but hopefully not that long!
Maya...agree in general, but my thought is maybe a "quiet" Ford presence is there...smart, tech and business savvy CEO. They've come too far to drop the ball six months after purchases.
"...one of the first things to hit me was that growing problem (it actually p's me off,...)--just a matter of time before it's revelation goes viral into a huge mess--customers, regulators, environmentalists, almost everybody." Moi aussi! I've posted that frustration as well.
"...everybody and his brother realizes the PbC is the s/s answer..." Not yet! That's Vani's challenge. "THAT'S just one of many reasons why I'm still long and patient."
Maybe I can clear some of this up for you -- based solely on my observations, not on any official Seeking Alpha statements. I've been following via Android, WinXP, Windows 7, and on Chrome, Firefox and (occasionally) Explorer, and I'm pretty sure it's not a hardware or software bug that you're encountering.
1st, the notification of new comments was changed a month ago (or so) to prioritize articles over instablogs. Even if the latest comment on something you're tracking is on an instablog, it'll show real articles first. I unsubscribed from all the articles to get the instablogs to show back up in the drop down list, but you can also get to the instablogs by clicking on "more notifications" and then expanding to see even "more notifications" until you see the instablogs.
2nd, the "new comment" flags ONLY show up if you navigate to the instablog through the new comment notification at the top right of the screen. Whenever I navigate through a SA search or from an email I do not see the "new comment" flags. I believe the flags are triggered by the "&source=tracking_... part of the link and are not automatically generated on every page you load.
This might explain why some people can't see the new comment flags (they're navigating through emailed links or doing a search for the concentrator instead of navigating to the latest tracked instablog). It could also explain why some people don't see tracked instablogs -- they have too many tracked articles that have recently been given priority in the "new comment list" over instablogs.
Then again, it might just be unrelated software issues as you've speculated.
That's it!!!! I wasn't aware of the re-prioritization (sneaky bastages) but the time of that change maps perfectly... I had nearly a hundred different articles marked for tracking, which I guess just overwhelmed the buffer... anyway, I nuked a coupla dozen of them and Voila, instablogs are now working 4.0. You are the bees knees. much gratitude (and embarrassment that I didn't have the patience/gumption to run this to ground myself)
>Mayascribe ... "squashed immediately" ... Amen to that. "Mr. Investor" ... A really ignorant statement. Even beyond something I'd come up with and shows you've got some work to do to justify the moniker.
Maya, I would have reacted the same way if someone meant the BODs. It was my post, so my fault for not writing more clearly.
Anyway, I interpret the edginess of this APC (there, I left out the you-know-which word. See how fast I learn? lol) as being a bit of a buy signal, based on the past 6 months of my informal sentiment observations.
Maya, POC for me is a design win. A market order from whomever (NS/BMW) AFTER field testing is completed. We are just about beginning exhaustive field (fleet) testing in cars and locomotives, orders of the kind I'm looking for are a year or more away. This is the reality.
As wonderful as this concentrator is, we are in our enthusiasm collectively willing this thing to move faster than it can, and this leads to frustration. It has been a long road and will continue to be so for a while yet, even under the best of circumstances.
Some think of me as a troll. I might be just an investor ALWAYS looking at the negative side of my investments. However since i started to post here i always get attacked. Yet it seems that when i point out that this company is far from profitable right now IT is my opinion.
I did sell some of my shares and may continue in the future. But as i just read some others are now stating they are done posting. Tempers seem to be rising, and i am just glad i am not part of it.
Personally i don't care if you accept me, but if you chose to mock my opinions then you just diminish the quality posted here. It is either positive or don't post!!
I never will understand the engineering parts as i was not in the industry. However i still should have a right to post a concern i have, Some had a field day when i posted i did not like the financials, and then i was mocked !!
Well apparently others seem to feel the same way looking at the stock price today. So some should think about ridiculing a person who posts what they feel,
Otherwise you lose your acceptance of others who MIGHT want to post. but more important from those who might want to invest !!!
But if a negative post is a TROLL then i am one...Because i look at both sides of every argument. If oil continues to drop , i also see some other issues rising as well...
Bottom line, Axion has a long way to go and if the economy starts to tank ( it already has imo ) things will really slow down.
MAP: TG is on record stating that profitability will not occur until 4th Q, 2013.
What I don't understand is your propensity to conveniently forget what has been repeatedly written here in these blogs...when the timing suits you to do so, and that's always when something negative about Axion emerges, you emerge, forgetful of what has already been discussed countless times here in these APCs.
All things relative, we own a developmental company that's a hair's breath away from becoming a manufacturing company.
Months, not years.
Fully realizing that this is my opinion only, anyone buying shares today, or tomorrow or the next day, should garner faster annual asset appreciation from today than any other asset they own.
I hold shares I bought from $1.20 all the way down to 28 cents. I hold zero fears Axion won't make it, and that someday I will be able to sell those $1.20 shares for a handy profit.
Thats just it.....I question profitability in 2013 right now. I stay quiet because i have nothing to add technically. But when people start predicting dates then i question.
Hell, even TG said that NS sale was way behind what they were expecting. My concerns are Axion essentially has just two customers .
One buying most of the flodded batteries, and ONE order from NS. One day i also hope that others join in, but right now it is wishful thinking.
Then if we have another dilution because of lack of sales what's the price gonna be ?? ,25 cents a share? So yes i conveniently wait until i want to voice my concern. Otherwise reading all the technical stuff means nothing to me if it doesn't turn into sales.
I might add i really don't read these post everyday because it is kinda like a soap on TV. You can miss a week and be at the same spot..
I hope for all you are right, as i will hold onto a percentage of my shares. But i honestly aren't convinced this is a home run yet !! If that is because of my ignorance then its my fault, but if it is wishful thinking of others then well see down the road..
I might add i won't be adding shares at this point...Be my guest if you do.
Blogs are still in the early stages...investment blogs especially. Caveat emptor and own due diligence required for all blogs/articles, reading and following comments. One must understand the type/experience of "trader" or "investor" commenting. One must also differentiate the newbies from the techies from the detail commenters, big picture commenters, business savvy commenters...read...di... in context.
I for one find this series of blogs to be the most transparent, interesting, educational, blunt, direct and open to any constructive or non hidden agenda queries.
Mayascribe: Your reference to "BMW cruisers" would seem to imply police cars. If I am remembering correctly, there was some discussion that testing was underway with police and taxi cabs. However, today's call would seem to indicate that is incorrect. Wouldn't police cars be considered Fleet Testing?
If they're not yet doing fleet testing now, and they start this summer, then it'd have to be done by year-end to make the 2014 models. Wouldn't it?
Sorry I didn't ask the question explicitly the first time.
apmarshall62 and Rick: Unfortunately, I don't have total recall (it took me about 20 minutes to locate my above fleet testing comment).
I think TG will reveal much more at the shareholders conference. Although, because of this blog, I also expect him to be more guarded than he was last year.
As for BMW testing in cruisers, I don't recall when or in what APC(s) this has been discussed. But I know it has been discussed.
We may be talking semantics, because we don't know, or I can't recall how many cop cars are being tested. What exactly is fleet testing? How many cars does it take to be considered a fleet?
I honestly don't know. But what I do know is what Bob Avrill stated at the past shareholders conference is keen and proving out dead on correct.
Maya, If I understood TG properly he said the next phase of testing by auto makers would be fleet testing which may be up to 200 cars doing real world driving for a significant period of time. The way TG said it suggested to me that fleet testing has not yet happened. First, did you understand it that way also. Second, if the fleet testing has not happened, do you think there is time for that to occur, results evaluated, a decision be made, the design incorporated into production and then the batteries ordered and delivered in time for the 2014 models? Seems to me that 2015 model year is a safer bet. But I am open to anyone who can show how the timeline works for 2014 model cars. Thanks
Rick: I did hear TG state "fleet testing is next."
Could this be with another OEM, other than BMW?
I'd have to go back and do some research, but I believe the penalties Europe intends to wage on the automakers have already begun this year. Penalties will scale up significantly year after year, until 2016. Introducing stop/start in 2015 would not be the frugal thing to do, as I believe hundreds of millions of dollars/euros are involved.
I know of two and only two recent references by Axion to the kind of testing being done by BMW:
1. Nov. 2011 CC: "[BMW is] doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here and that testing has proceeded beyond bench testing. I can’t really get into a whole lot more detail about that"
2. Axion Investor Presentation: "OEM vehicle testing of PbC® battery with optimized hybrid vehicle system architecture began in 2011" (p. 21/28) http://bit.ly/Hfv7fu
My phone connection to the CC got dropped, so I did not get a chance to ask my question on the 10Q, related to the statement, "We have shipped our latest battery iteration to those OEMs that we have been most closely working with . . ."
Does anyone have any information on the nature of / reasons for / significance of the "latest battery iteration"?
IMHO opinion, it might have been a battery that was produced using the assembly line and demonstrating consistent quality. Just a possibility and just my speculation. Could also be some minor tweaks on the inside, but that is far as my expertise would take me.
Dirtdauber, Not that I know of. I wanted to ask the question too, but my 10:30 meeting didn't get over until almost noon so I didn't get to call in either. I'm hoping that the "latest battery iteration" are just to show that what is coming off the assembly line now is no different than what was coming off 3 or 6 months ago as far as QC. The other possibility I see is that BMW's engineers have been working with the PbC and asked them to "tweak" certain aspects of it to meet their specific auto needs. Remember that TG said that the form of PbC batteries coming off the lines now are ready for use in rail and cube applications. It may be that there needs to be changes made to make them work better for SS applications that have been shaken out during the auto OEM's testing. At least that's my theory.
HTL, Yes. I see it as no different than what you see now with LA starter batteries. If your car needs a new one you go to Sears or wherever and chose between a couple batteries that they have the meet the specifications for your car. Every battery they carry won't work in your car because they are configured slightly differently depending on the needs of your vehicle. Why would a SS battery be any different? You've got micro to mild hybrids in different size vehicles with different power systems, different regenerative braking systems, different transmissions, etc. That's why they are selling to OEMs and not on the secondary market. As John has often said, the OEMs are going to need to design their SS systems around the PbC's advantages. One would also assume that Axion will need to makes variations of their basic battery to meet multiple needs. That why I believe TG specified that rail and Cube applications were ready for immediate release with the current PbC battery configuration. Because those applications don't need changes to fit their systems. They just need more or less strings of batteries with the electrical and BMS to go with it.
I "think" this is where we get into the questions of why they are still having issues with the carbon sheets. I don't think there is any issue for the carbon sheets when it comes to rolling out the standard mix that they are using for rail and Cubes, especially now that they've updated their system and got it down to a single roll process, an accomplishment that John is quick to point out is a major improvement over how things use to be. Kirk T has suggested in the past that you can alter the power vs energy of the PbC to some extend by how much carbon and how much binder you put into the mix before you roll the sheets out. He could never say more than that about it. My belief is that they are still playing with this mix, not for the standardized batteries that they are using for NS and their Cubes, but possibly in response to various auto OEMs who want to know if they can "tweak" the carbon sheets to make the PbC a little more friendly to their specific SS systems. I have absolutely no proof for any of this, but it would explain why there are still discussions about changes in the carbon sheeting this far along in the game.
As I understand the power-energy balance, it has more to do with the relative thickness of the lead and carbon electrodes. I think the carbon to binder ratio is a very stable specification that may improve a little bit over time, but the benefits of squeezing out that last couple percent of binder content don't strike me as massive.
As I understand it, the current carbon sheeting technology is a 2011 vintage development. Before that, everything was multi-pass with a high labor content. I don't know whether it was a series of incremental improvements that took the number of passes from ±30 down to 1, but it's darned impressive in any event.
LabTech: I don't recall it having anything to do with the sheeting process.
IIRC, it has to do with thickness and/or number of cells per battery (voltage) and number of "plate assemblies" on the negative electrode (power vs. energy).
I *think* more plate assemblies gave more power (more surface area) and fewer but thicker plates gave more energy (greater storage capacity).
But that's a hazy memory with no foundation of experience to back it up.
"Power vs energy" tweaks would typically be the ratio of surface area of Pb plates to mass of Pb plates. More, thinner Pb sheets have more surface area to transfer electrons, and therefore more power. Thicker, heavier (fewer) sheets cannot transfer electrons as fast, but last longer, so this configuration would generally give more energy. In capacitors, area is the primary determinate of energy and power, so I think (not know) greater C thickness (in a PbC) is irrelevant. Greater C area is key for rapid charge acceptance, and to a lesser extent, more power. Therefore, all C anodes would have the same thickness (except possibly for extreme vibration applications, but I suspect all are to the same spec).
This is at the cell level, not the battery level, and is independent of 6-cell batteries (12 v) or 8-cell batteries (16 v) design. Either can emphasize power or energy.
I don't think there would be significant changes to electrolyte or binder specifications in power vs energy tweaking. Some high energy Pb-acid batteries have issues with dendritic growths shorting out the battery, so greater electrolyte thickness (less Pb) is necessary to allow for these growths. I do not know if these are an issue with PbC chemistry. Since AGM batteries generally do not have these issues, I doubt PbC does.
There may be some tweaks in the connectors and terminals. High power also means high amperage, so there has to large cross-sectional area of the connectors between cells, and the terminals. A low power (but high energy) battery could theoretically use lighter connectors. However, a PbC energy battery would presumably run all the way down to 2 volts, which could generate significant amperage, and therefore need the heavy duty connection of a high power battery. My guess is they are using standardized connections across all batteries.
Caveat: I am not a battery engineer; corrections and additions welcome.
I don't have much more to add to the power vs energy discussion, but may be able to shed a little light on architecture.
If you go to any of the Axion presentations, they have a slide that shows how electrode stacks are interleaved with separators and then top welded with an L shaped lug. When the electrodes stacks are inserted in the cells, the lugs line up with 1/2 " holes in the cell partitions and the lugs for the electrode stacks in the next cell. As the last step before the cover is mounted, the adjoining top lugs in each cell are spot-welded to the lugs in the next cell through the partition holes. It's an extremely reliable way to get cell to cell connections that can stand whatever amperage the battery can throw at them. It's a standard manufacturing process throughout the industry and nobody messes with it because it works so well.
Thinner purer positive electrodes could be problematic in the PbC because it's difficult to make really thin PbC electrodes. You have to remember the PbC electrode is a five layer laminated assembly and it's hard to change the thickness of the current collector and corrosion barriers, which leaves the carbon sheet as the only simple variable. As you reduce the thickness of the carbon, you proportionally reduce the capacitance. Batteries are among the most unforgiving beasts in the world and when you make a tweak that increases one metric, you invariably lose performance someplace else.
One thing for RK, which may or may not be a point he missed. The thickness of the carbon electrode is relevant because the big key feature of the carbon is its amazing internal micro-structure and porosity, so total surface area for adsorption (which is freakin huge) does increase with thickness. Like John stated above, more thickness=more area=more capacitance... anyway that is my simplified understanding of it..
MAP, I for one appreciate sincere concerns (expressed respectfully) as much as the positive. I tend to ignore the difficult issues when my excitement over a technology takes hold. The recent 35 cent offering splashed cold water in my face, so to speak, and brought me back to the harsh realities of the market value of 115 million shares of stock in a company that has yet to break even. I am here to make money, not fall in love. If your respectful concerns help me make money, then keep them coming.
When I expressed concerns after the offering and the stock was selling at 48 cents some suggested I sell if I was bothered by the offering. So I did and I am glad I did. I sold at 48 cents, made about 20% on my investment, and have started to get back in with a goal of averaging back in at 39 cents or less again. The point is that if the fundamentals or the market conditions suggest the stock may languish or slide for a while, it is ok to be realistic and sell and then get back in when the time seems more opportune, even if some others suggest you are being negative. I welcome insight into a situation, positive or negative, that can help me and others make informed decisions. And while I love the PbC tech, I understand that the stock price will, in the words of the experts, fluctuate. There is nothing wrong with me or Bang or HTL or others selling and then buying back if we sense the market has gotten ahead of the sales and intrinsic value.
Ahem, contrary to some skepticism, I managed to fill a long standing BUY order for a substantial block at $0.391 today.
We bottom feeding Axionistas are patient and don't pay much attention to the "anxiety of the day". Except to try and profit by it.
The product and company are both just fine. Advancing sales in the face of a weak economy is encouraging and says the buyers expects a return on their money.
And my girl-friend just added at 0.38. Give me another day with these prices so I too can get a purchase order placed, before the seat-belt becomes necessary :-)
My 15 minute SWOT attempt. I might have omitted some things or some may be just plain incorrect. Just my perspective on Axion as a company.
15 May 2012
STRENGTHS Patent protection Technology and research make it difficult to copy Companies recognize potential NS and BMW have let Axion disclose relationship OEM - vehicle testing stage Stingy Management Strengths of Product - voltage equilization in strings, carbon negative electrode means no sulfization, safe, recyclable, works in wide range of temperatures, perhaps ideal for S/S applications due to cost, charge acceptance, number of cycles. Viridity partnership Have good industry contacts through Mr. Dantam
WEAKNESSES Revenues still low Are entering new markets with PC - frequency regulation, power smoothing, FERC rulings are murky Testing periods are long Negative cash flow Marketing process takes long time.
OPPORTUNITIES Norfolk Southern will soon begin testing NS999 and may purchase more batteries for further electric yard slugs Cooperation with NS on hybrid locomotive In talks with other RR’s Grid based storage opportunities - have several RFP’s out there Military Grid - RFP’s out there Residential PC - introduced in September,.marketed by Rosewater. Opportunities arising in other areas but TG can’t speak about them as have NDA’s. Rosewater to begin testing with Ontario Several OEM’s testing PbC. Oil rig application being marketed with Rosewater
THREATS Just good enough battery chemistry wins, i.e. ultrabattery Running out of cash before can win contracts as testing periods drag on. New product that may not be understood Share price suffers with lack of orders and next round of financing goes off at low price. New government regulations on lead. New battery chemistries. Economy derails investment plans Government puts the kabash on renewable energy. Other chemistries may prove better for grid based applications
I'm with jakurtz and mr investor. Sentiment goes up and down like a wh***'s drawers on the concentrator. I think we are good. Price goes down after the CC, but I'm used to that.
Used Fidelity today and got filled at .38 this afternoon. Used another platform and got filled at .38 as well.
Honestly, my secret is to decide a price point you are willing to buy and let the market come to you. If it never hit my limit of .38... oh well.... it wasn't meant to be. I guess I'm one of the invertebrates JP loves so much.
Oh, Tim... one more thing.... if 10k doen't move... try 5k or 2k... and wait... sometimes a little patience works, but to my point above: you've gotta be O.K. if you don't get filled. There is always another day and another price point.
There's a lot of sound wisdom running through these posts. After today, while sure I would have loved to hear about a big impending order and some fatter revenues, after today I think the PbC and Axion story is still more intact than ever. More opportunities, more interest, more markets, more confirmation. NS stopped testing other batteries for freak sake. If you're one of those other companies guess what, you just lost. And who won? WE WON. But no, it's just not happening as fast as we would like/hope. BooHoo. Yours truly included. So what. More waiting. We'll deal with it. We have up until now and we will some more. It is what it is, and frankly, I don't see anything of significance that has changed for the worse. Does anyone? Beyond more time required? There's been no negative outcome or failure of anything of substance, only lengthening of what already has seemed like an interminable timeline. But that's life. We're on the customers' clocks. We may have the time, but they have the watches, and that's just the way it is. Until it isn't. Me, I'm gonna drink me a tall glass of buck the hell up and then go out and pull some brush. ;)
I remain certain that the PbC has a future. I also believe that AXPW will survive and thrive. It seems to me that the risk/reward balance is all in the favor of those who are long at the moment. Nevertheless, perhaps there is some risk that the company will not survive in its current form. I am NOT well qualified to speak to that but would love to see an exploration here of potential scenarios which could lead to the company filing for bankruptcy. What are the odds of that? Thanks.
DLane> Not much chance based upon my business experience and what I know about Axion. Worry about that as time goes by and circumstances change in Axion's cash position after the next capital raise.
Usually a debt free companies need not file, unless it is advantageous to do so for other reasons, like breaking contracts. However the dollar cost is quite high in any case.
I'd expect to see Axion cut costs and staff to the bone before we'd have to worry about it. The biggest threat for bankruptcy is debt, and Axion has no bonds. I wouldn't expect them to issue any either unless they were damn sure an order is about to come in. That would be the only time I'd like to see a debt issue vs another share sale.
Companies that don't borrow money don't end up facing a risk of bankruptcy. They may go through rounds of belt tightening but without debt almost anything is survivable.
I called three Ford dealerships in my area and talked with the sales manager about how Ford had solved the battery issue with their stop/start Fusion. They were uninformed but my conversation got them a little more than curious after I shared the European experience. I have done this with Ford and Kia and will go right on down the line as each mfg brings their models to production. I am curious what might happen if we all made some phone calls...
Tim E., I'm not one for interfering with thinking-for-yourself, independent action if it's ethical, moral, legal and just. One thing to consider, though, is the sensitive nature of Axion's OEM relationships. Maybe it's ok with Axion if we get the word out, but then again, maybe it's not. Could be an issue, is all I'm saying. Thanks.
Mr I - understood. But I didn't mention Axion in my post or my conversation with the dealership. My true motivation was to find out how the problem would be solved. the byproduct was a raised awareness at the dealership...
Tim, I've seen companies do this as a strategy. Most were ethical and just pointing out the problems that existed in their competitors products. I've also witness one occurrence where suggestions were made to cross the line into the unethical side of self promotion vs a competitors product. I think both happen very often as corporate strategies.
I have no problem with going the high road and pointing out how another product has better performance characteristics. Obviously most would have a problem with the alternate method. Your method is to me quite ethical. I feel this way because I think the auto companies are being less than fair with consumers putting some of the systems out in the field knowing how poorly they will function under certain use profiles just to get government credits. This to me boarders on fraud.
The dealerships were interested and I suspect they spent some time themselves looking into what I had to say. They will be the ones dealing with the customers which is why I suspect they took an interest. The conversation was generic as I just talked about many deep cycles shorten the life of the battery and eventually the SS ceased to function with replacing the battery as the solution. Bringing around full circle the question, what has Ford/Kia done to correct this problem?
Okay, does this make me a consumer activist? <smile>
PS Agreed on the "boarders on fraud" statement but will leave that for others (oops guess I am not quite an activist <smile>)
If the OEMs continue using the current flawed solution, at least in this country the problem's eventually going viral, I'm convinced. If there was a prop bet opportunity, I'd bet on it. In lieu of that, AXPW shares helps.
From my limited sampling of English message boards concerning the functional problems of the system with AGM and from our shared research I'd say it's a real problem. Good for you. People need to stand up when they pay for something and it's just not correct. From a manufacturers perspective if there is a build issue that is one thing. Mandating and selling it knowing it becomes a dead weight far too often is just plan not right.
With all due respect, I see here full-time AXIONISTAS and AXIONISTAS of half time. Now, the half-time are trying to climb back to the train. I wish good night.
Had a feeling I was going to get a yellow flag! How many yards? Half the distance? Are you kidding? ;-D
One bit of web insight. If Google has already spidered the comment (they are busy little devils) it will probably remain on the server and the search results until the server dies. Google is like a vacuum cleaner - once its in the bag it doesn't come out.
I also have a suggestion. It is natural that sometimes folks will have disagreements that are not purely ... "intellectual" in nature.
This is normal. And more so here as the normal visual cues that aid conversation and understanding are not available to us. Mixing different personalities, more negative and more positive views, the tendency of people to "defend" their positions, folks get tired of hearing always negative or always positive without "balance" (from their POV), ...
These are exactly the sort of things that *may* be, and *should* be resolved via PMs.
In that forum *extended* discussions that provide additional clarity and foster understanding, *without* disturbing the prime function of the instablog, can occur.
The rule to follow in that case is that anything discussed "in private" should be kept private by both parties unless one or both agree that public disclosure is OK.
HTL> I agree, except I seem to recall a poison pen letter you got a long time ago that you published. Was that you or someone else? No matter, it is over and done. Tomorrow is a new day thank God!
Fwiw, I hold MAP to be inside the circle of trust. A little contrariness is healthy. That said, I hate to see friends fight, but what are ya gonna do? And hey, whatta we want this to be here anyway?, a cozy box of cooing tribbles? ;)
I have never meant any disrepect to anyone. But when you get accused of multiple identities, or a troll...It does wear on you. I did make a very bad comment to Bang and i wrote him personally to apologize.
MAYA also posted that i have one identity but unfortunately that was removed as well. I also wrote APH and asked that they remove my comment to Bang.
I am man enough to even post i was wrong with what i said. You have one BANG in a PM as well.
Hi guys, I mostly lurk, but sometimes make comments to be sociable. I have noticed (can be checked easily in past APCs) that just before and just after quarterly statements and CCs there is a lot of guessing and building of expectations. The result is emotion and disappointment with heavy disagreements afterwards. There are those here with different opinions and investing styles, this helps to keep us honest even if we don't want to hear it. I value the opinions that don't match mine as food for thought. I think that when everybody calms down and gets back on track they will remember the true value of the APC. Social contact with the purpose of DD and factual information. The APCs can be a curse as well as a blessing, putting a microscope on a microcap while dissecting every part of the subject can become subjective and emotionally charged. The stock is what it is and will take however much time it will take, but I think it will do well as I like the technology and management and respect the investors on this site. To quote Rodney King "can't we all just get along?" JMHO, and we all know what that is worth.
When this stock is a multibagger, we're all going to laugh about how stressed we got over a 10% swing.
Seriously, until today, AXPW has been downright stable compared to many sectors in this market, and this is a microcap OTC stock.
I've got a biotech that fell 30% already, after announcing positive data. Why? Because a bunch of swing traders were expecting a massive jump and didn't get it. And the stock didn't really run up much beforehand. It's just that it's a low volume stock so there is nobody to catch a fall.
It's the same here. We caused our own 10% drop because the sellers today wanted to all squeeze through the exit? And why? Because they don't want to wait a little bit more.
Nothing about the fundamentals in either company had changed for the worse. If anything, both have exciting prospects that will reward the patient.
I also *suspect* that some momo traders had jumped in over the last week or so. This based on the charts of intra-day activity I maintain.
Momo traders generally have strict exit rules and today would've met the requirement for a fast exit to minimize losses. "Keep your your losses small and let your winners run".
From today's action, I think there were also some folks that had longer-term targets in mind but decided the opportunity cost was too large for the time-frame they could see now.
I would think that NS had some long discussions with Axiom management about their ability to thrive and survive, if NS began to use their batteries to meed Federal Standards. What a debacle for NS management to build for the future with a company that might not be there next year. I don't think that NS management is that stupid.
My take away is that Axion will be around for years.
IMHO this blog has a problem: Nothing is going on with the stock (while a lot is going on with the company), and this is a blog. So, people post. What happens when you comment on paint drying?
thotdoc, I've thought about what you are saying concerning NS's confidence level in Axion's ability to service them in the future as well. I tend to agree with your perspective with one caveat. I'd bet the NS engineering/management team has a secondary back-up plan to deal with any possible corporate or technology failures that would make the PBC unavailable to them. Standard protocol for organizations when dealing with similar applications.
Also understand your statement concerning the blog. But let's face it. Money has always caused anxiety for people and people will be people. Everyone deals with anxiety in different ways. Surely you know more on the topic than I given your background.
iin: This stock takes me back to my love for General Magic (GMGC), which became Onstar when GMGC folded. So, I agree with you about the back up plan....perhaps to buy Axion, as GM did with GMGC.
Those are great points. For myself, I kinda doubt NS has any deep concerns about the survivability of Axion the company, because I think the focus of any concerns on their part would rightfully be on the PbC itself. And once all of those remaining concerns (if any indeed remain) are fully put to bed, then NS will do just about whatever it needs to keep Axion healthy. And even if Axion were to implode, the device itself, and the ability to manufacture it would surely survive in some quarter. But here's the crux: If NS satisfies itself that the PbC is the best solution for its own needs, ie NS comes to really believes in the PbC, then they have to conclude that Axion will eventually gain all the business they'll ever need to thrive in any number of other places. IE, Axion will never have to live solely on sales to NS. Once NS is confident of that fact (and if they are confident enough in the PbC to start buying them they really should be) it all becomes basically a non-issue. I mean I doubt Hewlett Packard loses any sleep whatsoever wondering if Intel is going to make it and be around for them tomorrow. ;) Now, we've all talked ad nauseum over the question of whether some some bigger company might buy up Axion, and it always comes down to the price that would be required, which is like at least 20x of where we are now. And really, if it really came to that, NS could make that happen. I mean does anyone doubt that? But far short of that, if the PbC becomes that important to NS, and Axion ever found itself in financial straits, I gotta think NS could do a lot to keep them afloat, short of buying them, and barely break a sweat. Even as we speak, they're expanding with a new hub in Tennessee:
481', the other side of that coin is perhaps not dismissed as easily. Assume NS needs the PbC as you hypothesize because there are no other sources of supply. Then survivability of Axion could take a back seat to risk of price vulnerability to a monopolist. If Axion patent protection is as solid as some think, NS, BMW, etc. will want to insulate against monopoly pricing power.
D-inv... I can certainly see that from their point of view, I mean no-one wants to have a sole-source supplier for a critical component... but isn't that what negotiations and long-term contracts are for? If Axion tried to squeeze a customer too much on price raises, I would think at some point they'd render the PbC less competitive or outright not competitive with other battery types. I'm sure Axion would love to have healthy margins, but I doubt they would want to become known for trying to put their best customers over a barrel. I have a lot of ignorance about business though and would love to hear other POVs...
Since the business plan is to be supplier of electrodes to battery manufacturers, there should be healthy competition that would help hold prices down.
Even if Axion were (temporarily) sole-source, Axion's customers will be competing and that competitive pressure wll flow through to Axion's pricing.
Once the JVs that make more cathodes pop up, the scene changes even more.
I don't believe that long-term there is going to be such an issue.
If I were NS I'd offer cash up front, or easy financing, if they were really serious about PbC. Obviously the downside would be that they'd want exclusivity for a period, but Axion could use the short term juice too.
If it were me, I'd prefer someone like East Penn buy a stake in the company. If it was someone like (NSC) providing funding and having influence, they'd have a bias to cant the business in a direction which meets the needs of NSC.
OTOH, an outfit like East Penn that "sees" the same marketplace and opportunities that Axion "sees" will be more likely to support the approach of addressing all (within reason) niches that might might be appropriate.
This helps *broaden* the product line and markets whereas NSC might tend to try and influence in a manner that narrows the product line and markets.
Totally agreed there HTL, EP a much better match. My only point is that when you're a billionaire, and your daughter brings round her new fiance', you might have cause to worry about a lot of things, but one thing you probably don't really worry about is whether he'll be a good provider or that your future grandkids might oneday be out on the street. I mean, even if the lad's a royal schlep, with you being a billionaire and all, you've pretty much got that part covered. ;)
Over the last eight years one of the biggest recurring challenges has been keeping potential suitors from encumbering the PbC technology with checks that would morph into golden handcuffs. I'd be amazed to see management change their position now that the PbC is ready for commercialization and got there without owing anybody anything more than fair treatment. Giving somebody stock for money is always a better deal than giving somebody stock and a piece of your soul for the same money.
I can totally see that. Axion has certainly proven its pluck and independence. But still, I can't shake the confidence that if ever it came to it that Axion somehow found itself truly desperate, that companies far and wide wouldn't be falling over themselves to come to the rescue. I think the PbC is going to become far too important for too many people, for that not to happen...
Roger that John. And fully. I'm just expressing the joyous confidence that we're soon heading into TITF land... a world where Axion becomes just Too Important To Fail! ;)
HTL - "Since the business plan is to be supplier of electrodes to battery manufacturers, there should be healthy competition that would help hold prices down."
Competition among battery suppliers helps hold down the price of batteries to the extent they are built with commoditized resources. But, the only thing restraining price on sole source resources (PbC electrodes) is the price/performance ratios of alternative technologies. A healthy price for PbC electrodes is needed to recover development costs for the technology, But present/future pricing power of the electrode supplier strikes me as a risk factor "Tier I" users in target markets will want to mitigate against.
Axion Power Concentrator 100: May 15, 2012: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012 278 comments
These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
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Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012
NEW CASTLE, Pa., May 15, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International Inc (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2012.
Net product sales increased to $1.8 million in 2012 from $1.0 million in 2011. Net product sales increased in 2012 compared to 2011 primarily due to the sale of specialty lead-acid batteries to a single customer who will sell these batteries under their brand, as well as carry the cost of inventory and provide the raw materials for production of these batteries.
Net loss for 2012 was $2.3 million or $0.02 per basic and diluted share compared to $2.4 million or $0.03 per basic and diluted share in 2011.
Excluding the cash inflow of approximately $8.6 million in net proceeds from our sale of common stock in the first quarter of 2012, our net cash flow for 2012 was negative $2.1 million compared to a negative $2.9 million in 2011, a reduction in net cash burn of $0.8 million.
Other highlights of our first quarter of 2012 include:
Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "It has only been about six weeks since our last earnings release, but the first quarter of 2012 has been a busy one. I have previously mentioned that the road to PbC commercialization has been longer than we anticipated, but that we were finding the market opportunities, for our PbC product applications, larger and more diverse than we had initially anticipated. The first quarter of 2012 provided further proof of the market diversity for our technology. We have received numerous new requests for proposals and quotations, more than half of which have come from new markets for our product. And although these are new opportunities in new markets, it is the historical advantage of PbC batteries that makes the equation work. The old standby values that are as important today as they ever were and include: high charge acceptance; fast recharge rate; voltage consistency in large string applications; superior 'extreme temperature' performance; and low cost on a per cycle basis."
Granville concluded, "when you add these advantages to the historical PbC attributes - ease of manufacture on existing equipment worldwide; high rate of recyclability (99.1%) and the strong safety record of lead-acid batteries, it is easy to see why we feel our technology will be one of the ultimate winners in numerous energy storage market applications. And it is easy to see why so many potential customers agree with that premise."
Source: PR Newswire (http://s.tt/1bRov)
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Century Concentrator Comments -- 18,080 comments through 99 concentrators since July 21, 2011.
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LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.
Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz
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Right-on Bang. Your last paragraph says it. Without the 300-400% projection everyone would have been very happy today with a nearly 200% increase over Q-1 2011, the NS order having gone through this Q and solid progress with multiple new clients in new markets as they make steps in the transition from R&D to commercial sales.
I still believe the projection is good and TG knows why he said it, I think it is our faulty speculation on the "How" that is the real problem.
100 APC's! And going and growing ever more!
Thanks to all the hosts for doing a bang up job!
####
Great call on the 100th forecast, Futurist.
I tip my hat to Axion Power Host for doing a great job of keeping us on the track. But with appreciation I bow to you for creating this unique and intellectually vibrant forum. I'm not aware of another quite like it. Thank you!
WDD
This blog might just be better than any reality TV show. The emotions, the passions, the intellect, the undesirables...it's got it all.
Back into my easy chair I go. With exception to time frame, nothing has changed my belief that we all own a stock that will rise by 1000%.
From your lips to God's ear, may it be so.
(Visions of litter-bearers....)
;-)
1000% is 10X or $4.20 pps.
Don't get carried away by those imaginary litter-bearers!
What's the purpose of litter-bearers if not to get carried away? :-))
<ducks flying shoes on that one>
HardToLove
(I liked $420 a lot better.)
HardToLove
:-) If we get enough birds int he bushes we might be able to bag one with a BB gun.
Just for fun.
Snooping on large industrial concerns is very difficult. It's probably easiest via computer by people much smarter than I in the area via illegal means. For the rest of us it is darn near impossible.
You put your finger on one of the two items from the CC that had me scratching my head. Unfortunately I was following on-line and thus could not ask a clarifying question.
What's with this "next step"? My understanding was akin to that expressed by Metroneanderthal a ways further on in this edition--that BMW already had a gaggle of test cars on the road, and I got that police car and taxicab notion from some Concentrator way back. Lafferty rightly points out that we might need to nail down our terminology--"test vehicles" versus "fleet testing". Of course, once the PbC really is out on the streets of Munich, it will be difficult to control the information; even if they bolt the hood shut the hack behind the wheel will still have an opinion of how well that Stop-Start system seems to be working.
The other dissonant part was on current number of employees (Stephan's question?). The Axion website still says 50-something, but in recent Concentrators I think we were speculating on 90 or so. Unfortunately, the question as phrased (no criticism intended) sought a comparison of current number to that from the turn of the year without nailing down the actual number, and TG responded "the same". If we had a spate of hiring in November, then his answer is correct. What we really want to know is how many employees right now?
All in all, I think my long-term investment dramatically remains a long-term investment. (Man, if it wasn't for the interesting conversation I wouldn't even stop by here--its like a receding glacier watching the drying paint watching the battery refuse to die.)
HardToLove
HTL is correct. The number was at 90 total employees as of December 31, 2011. Generally, I am still trying to figure out the right balance between trying to pin management down in CC questions versus giving them some room to run with my question.
I was hoping he would take the bait and be able say that the headcount was currently at 100 or 105. In my mind, that would have helped back up his excitement on the last call about increasing sales without having to give any revenue guidance whatsoever.
Unfortunately, he did not take the bait and I am still unsure of how proper it is to then shift into a more aggressive posture in such a forum.
I am well aware of the meaning of the terms since I've spent a good deal of time in the industry in areas supporting R&D as well as concept, costing and launching programs so I certainly understand what Axion is going through in automotive.
On the staffing side I'm glad they have the flooded business for another year but beyond keeping/training their staff and covering some of the cost of those people and the plant being ready to make PBC I'm not really that interested in dissecting it any further. It's important but it doesn't really get much more interesting to me even if it doubles other than they manage it well if they choose to do so. It's PBC or bust and it better be clearer where they are this year before they raise funds again.
Automotive always takes toooooo long but believe me, it doesn't feel that way when you have to produce the deliverables.
Yes, this was the most disappointing revelation from the CC. The fact that they haven't actually "started" fleet testing yet but have only been testing in individual vehicles or at most a small number of them. In my mind that pushes any kind of auto roll out to at least 2014. Is that your opinion as well? You've always had a good feel for how long fleet testing goes, any insight considering that it hasn't started yet?
I thought that some low volume app a year earlier might be a long shot but that's pretty much out of the question now.
Agreed....announcement or supply/demand ratio are the movers on the table...
I hope that by the time of the annual meeting the management team has a better answer to the question "What does success look like 6 months out -- 12 months out." The question regarding general milestones was asked by the analyst in the last call and I asked it again in this call. No one is asking for financial guidance or proprietary details -- just some general performance measures for the management team. Mentioning 4 market opportunity areas does not cut it for me (although I will say that rolling out the residential cube in September does come the closest to one milestone.) As a shareholder I want to know in general terms what constitutes (A+) performance vs. (C-) for the management team. In other words, what are the general accomplishments shareholders can expect from the AXPW team.
If he has absolutely no control over the timing of the contract, does that really grade his performance if a development does not come by his targeted date?
It would have been nice if, just as with any *major* project, he would share either accomplishments that signified "mileposts" or time-lines they were shooting for or both.
However, being in a transition stage with so much completely out of their control I think I would've avoided giving such mileposts too.
No use throwing myself on the grill just waiting for someone to torch me when some date was missed because a *customer* failed to meet their own initial goals (a la NSC).
MHO,
HardToLove
As TG said, in response to the back-door questions to get guidance, "that is a loaded question."
1) Target and commence sales cycle discussions with 20 new potential AXPW partners;
2) Advance 2 new products to pre-commercialization/... stage
3) Acquire 1 more purchase order from existing OEM/third party relationship in progress;
4) Roll-out 3 new PbC applications (complete with product specs, pricing, distribution, and manufacturing-ready state);
etc. etc.
These example are illustrative (rather than realistic) of how management can earn more confidence with long-term investors who just need to know how to gauge success for AXPW. Even hearing what Mr. Dantam's general priorities are -- would help. If the milestones are achieved the share price will follow.
"The woodshed" scenario strikes me as quite possible and delay of further orders is not beyond question.
Very understandable that you "hate it when targets are missed." It's always tough in any public company to be held accountable. The goal should be to outline what you think you can deliver -- but not outlining much is a problem. OK, I have said enough about my personal point of view.
mj
This seems to be the same with auto. TG's comment that Axion was working on "their schedule" (ie auto OEMs) and that Axion has "completed testing on this end" for the PbC makes it clear that they've done all they can do to satisfy the auto OEMs on their end and now they are just waiting for them to "start" fleet testing and then get back to Axion. Back to watching paint drying time.
Many other things going on but as you can see what's happening on the vehicle platform level really adds delays to the numerous suppliers looking to launch with the vehicle. And there are a ton of considerations that are way outside of the control for the supplier. You're really in the rumble seat along for the ride knowing you can fall out on to the road at any time even if you do everything perfect to stay seated.
Axion is a flea trying to get a bunch of elephants to dance with them. Hey one just extended his trunk to help us aboard. Let's hope we don't give him a reason to sneeze.
We have no traditional methods of gauging progress, can't do it by revenue, can't do it by profits, you can only do it by the fact they are still standing and still moving forward with tests of old OEM's and initiating tests with new OEM's based on the success of the existing testing. It is the nature of the beast on this one guys. That is why the risk is high and so is the reward.
I know we are all tired of hearing the word testing but that is the stage this company is at.
The worst thing the guys could do is establish criteria and measurement dates, and then say "we met all our goals but can't talk about any of them." Were I in Tom's shoes, I'd hate to be pinned down to specifics when I knew there was a good chance I'd be precluded from talking about my accomplishments.
For the last eight years I've been awaiting news of the first bird in the hand. We got that news a couple weeks ago in a multi-billion dollar niche that's tried the competitors and selected the PbC. That fact doesn't give me much of a feel for timing, but it certainly increases my confidence that the others will follow suit in their own sweet time.
i think the bio-tech comparison is not a very good one. bio-techs are at the whim of a government agency. axpw has multiple potential business partners and no one agency (see exide) is going to stop them.
i am still a big holder, but sold 44 percent of my position yesterday. i simply couldn't justify tying up that much cash as other, option-able, opportunities present themselves. it's easier to build and maintain large long positions when i can still generate income through sale of covered puts/calls.
selling is harder when i've some idea of the strategies management is implementing AND a way to measure progress along those strategic lines.
They can tell us as much as they know right now which is that they have proven their product to NS, they are proving it to auto's and their are new markets and new potential customers that they are proving it to. They have hired a VP of Marketing and business development to further the commercialization process along and establish a solid market for their product. Once that market is established through some commercial sales they will have some data points to begin quantifying future growth and potential -- they are not there yet and they are far, far from being valued there.
To create your own fair value of Axion at this stage is very subjective because you only have what they have been doing with their product through non-commercial sales to base your speculation on, that is why so many people have such vastly different expectations for the company.
Anyhow, it is just my view.
i have to admit that it was exactly management that brought me to axpw in dec and has had me buying since. i think i just over-reached, and that's a new thing for me. i never ran out desire to buy more axpw, which some might find troubling. it's a combination of opaque CCs, oil dropping and NOK getting cheaper while i can still sell near term calls at 3.50.
enough enumeration about my investing. its just hard to let go of shares, and feel envious of Poul for reaching 1mil at the same time. it's not about the value of shares (which is still undervalued) its value in comparison to something else with regards to personal risk.
my comfort is that making money now = cash on hand to buy more axpw. even if i pay more, with time comes information/reduced risk.
I appreciated TG's repeat of the phrase "that we can talk about". I infer he has military applications being tested and possibly other OEM's who have asked for non-disclosure. I think that the charge acceptance would be particularly valuable to delivery trucks and garbage trucks. Does anyone remember any talks about those applications?
Not that I recall exactly on a specific application, but I do remember a discussion about UPS trucks turning off their engines every time they make a delivery. That actually happened to me a couple months ago at a stop light. A UPS truck was stopped behind me and when the light turned green, the truck started its engine again ...
“We decided to use hydraulic hybrid technology. . .since it recovers more than three times the brake energy and an overall 30 percent lower cost of ownership than any electric hybrid technology available today”
http://bit.ly/JQKPSF
That could come before fuel cost savings of other applications.
1. Carbon sheeting process: I thought this was automated now? He said: it is ahead of schedule? What does that mean?
2. Residential PC...I thought it was ready for sale in Sept. at the Indy Home Show...with demo's out before then.
Now he says will be faster to mkt. than other areas? So it won't be ready for sale, just a demo at the home show.
3. Current production will meet our needs now, no reason for added line. So no order ramp in near future. This is why he probably dodged any revenue increase numbers.
4. oil rigs..he only mentioned "manufacturers" nothing about retrofitting existing rigs, I take it he is working with new rigs only?.
5. He is definitely on others timeline, auto's are slow, fleet testing is next step, is this next year and a real model in '14 or '15 ?
I see nothing new in the call except there is more interest now, and he says the competitive products do not work as advertised. (we know that)
I still think there is a production issue with the carbon sheeting process, it is ahead of schedule but not completed yet.
As has been said, orders come when they come. But nothing he can lay his hat on. Even NS OTR loco will probably be longer in coming if history is a guide. Which is what I thought, get the 999 running first-then the OTR later.
Gonna be a long summer guys, without a surprise maybe even a year. TG did not sound nearly as upbeat today as a few weeks ago (to me anyway, and avoided any numbers or milestones)
"Yes, carbon sheeting is something that we’ve planned on for some time. We’ve devoted time and effort and money to that roll production. We’re producing carbon right now in more than adequate quantities to meet our needs for manufacturing. We are on schedule. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule in this roll production process.
If we received an order for 10 million batteries tomorrow, quite frankly, we wouldn’t be able to meet that order over the next couple of months. But, it’s our plan to move forward with the carbon sheeting, with the rolled sheeting process and we have that. We’ve been working, and we have people that work only on that project. We have equipment. We’ve moved things around. We’ve cleared out some areas here that will just be devoted to that process and I’m already starting to talk too much about it. So, I’m going to stop there."
What you think of as a problem is a huge accomplishment that I view as extraordinarily good news. They were doing installation work six weeks ago. Assuming that there's some kind of problem because the installation isn't done yet is grasping for negative straws.
3. Current electrode production capacity is in the neighborhood of 125 batteries per shift. A new electrode line can be ordered and installed in six weeks. This board of directors will not spend millions of dollars expanding capacity until they have an order in hand that requires the expansion. There are no Ray Kinsellas on the Axion team.
My powder is dry and my trigger finger itchy as hell now that we've gone below $0.40.
I'm hoping for about 3 days below that, since I'm *primarily* investing, not trading.
A year or two of holding with the expected returns justifies the opportunity cost to me.
HardToLove
You are correct. Similar to how NS will have a test loco now but a "fleet test" would require dozens more (and years of time).
As of yet Axion has not been deployed a "fleet test" in automotive. Also, since the auto numbers are so large I'd expect a fleet to mean hundreds of vehicles.
"We have regularly scheduled calls with them [BMW] a few times a month every month to report progress. They’re doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here and that testing has proceeded beyond bench testing. I can’t really get into a whole lot more detail about that, but we certainly are testing with them and with other automotive OEMs."
So we knew it was beyond bench, but we tended not to precisely distinguish between test vehicles and fleet testing, and so some were hoping for the latter.
The PC has to be protected against everything from miss-wiring the AC line to the PC to placing a hard short across the output. If the user can access the actual PbC battery terminals in the housing, the game is over.
That is why actual field testing is needed. Idiots can be so clever!
No disrespect...But couldn't the BUCKLE UP comment mean something negative as well??
Agreed...but I don't "look under the hood" at furnaces/AC...it would take some time, but I'd say private market small service company support would suffice.
I have to believe most buyers of solar utilize the vendor for servicing.
It's not much but it's nice to put a visual to the project. I got to spend some time there in late Feb but the parking structure was beyond public access...
http://on.fb.me/JQNqvG
And a little more information on Zero Energy Buildings...
http://bit.ly/JGNRHS
there is selling in the works...price drop slowed it down a bit.
For those stock holders who do not want to wait, I will be glad to buy your shares but at a lower price; how about .35 or lower !!!
I'll buy your shares for .36, and I'll throw in a pizza.
####
Bang & SBH: Perhaps I need to do a little evincing that I unfortunately may have let slip by.
Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so.
Why hasn't this happened already? Is the Detroit OEM ahead or behind, too, is a question with now scant feedback, due to the DOE not providing the grant.
I construed Avril's input to be that Axion will only be providing/selling to BMW potentially that amount of batteries during this year and into next.
Subliminally, maybe that's why I expect the next big announcement will come from the RR industry, and not auto, in previous comments.
However, I did see an Axion car leaving the local Hampton Inn, which John and I assumed, during our 100 mile long conversation across the PA Turnpike, when I was travelling back to Philly, to be a test vehicle using the PbC battery. It was not a BMW, by the way, at first glance, as it was pulling out of the parking lot when I was entering. I truly wish I had noticed the make--Hampton Inn has a strange, poorly designed entrance/exit, and I was being the kind one, letting that Axion small-ish car get out, before I entered. Or crashed!
Really enjoying yours and others banter, because that triggers a lot of stuff I failed to before write about.
What led you to the conclusion that it was an "Axion car?"
I stated questions for clarity, not negative straws...anything short of boasting this stock to $100 / sh is considered negative here.
Your track record of late has not been all that great on predictions....
the offering price was lower than expected
more have "flipped" than expected
the toll contract growth numbers to grow 300% qtr/qtr
Revenue expectations for qtr. 1 & prob. qtr. 2 this year
I could go on...but I won;t as this is my last post here until they do hit the home run, then it will be a one word post.
Good luck all.
Constructive critique, asking hard questions, etc., with regard to *any* company is absolutely essential, and I would not be at all comfortable participating in the APC or, frankly, holding AXPW, if the blog neglected to include this.
I would be sorry to see you go.
I've never claimed the gift of prophecy and do my best to avoid predicting anything. I share my expectations, but when it comes to the future I have no particular insights, either positive or negative.
The offering price was based on market conditions and timing issues nobody could have anticipated. Nobody is prescient enough to know that sort of thing in advance.
We know how many shares have changed hands since the offering and that total is still within the range of my prior experience. Once again, nobody who doesn't have precise details can do more than speak in generalities.
I made no particular predictions about what revenues would be. I did, however, offer a plausible explanation of how revenues could ramp to a 300% YoY growth without spectacular news on the PbC front. Part of that plausible explanation was based on an inaccurate assumption that upgrades to the second flooded line were complete instead of being work in process. Bad assumptions lead to bad conclusions.
Different folks with different profiles will behave differently.
Some come in, some go out.
I just wish all the best regardless of the rational decisions they must make for their profile.
HardToLove
You sound a little frustrated and disappointed which is always a function of expectations.
We all really do need to focus on managing our expectations and although we're fastening our seat-belts we should also settle in for the long haul that this company is destined to be.
As I said, by all means take a breather, LT. But I hope it's not for too long as I have appreciated your comments even where they express pessimism and criticism.
D
Some obvious frustration setting in...understandable.
Depending on one's time frame, if shorter term, it can be excruciatingly frustrating.
(See tragicslip selling 44%)
As many have posted, the nature of the beast...penny stock...R&D company...NDAs.
JP can be blunt and direct...don't take it personal.
Some time away may be healthy for you...it's been a long road and I've only been here 2 years!
"Your track record of late has not been all that great on predictions...."...if John were that prescient, I suspect he'd be doing something else besides law.
Again, I think some frustration seeping in from many corners.
Anyway, sounds and looks like some board members selling down if not all the way out today. A lil catfish food drifting down.
1. During the discussion of Vani Dantam, Mr. Granville stated that in Q1, Axion more than doubled it's "opportunity base" that was in place at year-end. That would imply at least five, if not more, new projects under discussion.
2. Norfolk Southern's order means that "they have stopped testing other products". It seemed clear to me that Mr. Granville was trying to make the point that the NS order was a VERY important milestone that investors don't seem to fully appreciate (remember the stock price was stagnant after the news). He may also have been making the point to potential customers that they should skip the preliminary evaluation of the PbC and go straight to application specific testing.
3. If we incorporate the info in Mayascribe's note above about fleet testing, it would seem that any kind of commercial launch for the 2014 model year would seem to be unlikely.
4. I share the frustration over the flooded contract and while it's been beat to death here's my 2 cents. Given that it was renewed in February, it is possible that no production at all took place in January and only limited production in February. So, it is quite possible that the run-rate on this order entering Q2 is much higher than the quarterly total would imply (even 2x). Given Mr. Granville's conservative nature and how things on the PbC side seems to stretch out even from his perspective, I firmly believe Mr. Granville's 300% comment related virtually entirely to the Flooded contract and that when he made the comment, the run rate, or firm orders that he knew he can deliver, were in-hand.
Remember, not only has he been burned by PbC orders taking longer than expected, but the business from the flooded contract when it was first announced turned out to be much delayed due to the economic downturn.
Yes, the 300% comment wasn't Mr. Granville's best moment, but I can't believe he would repeat the exact same mistake with the same customer again. Now, will it mean all that much given that the margins are so low? I also think not. Hopefully, it'll give us a few more months of extra runway until the next capital raise.
--3. If we incorporate the info in Mayascribe's note above about fleet testing, it would seem that any kind of commercial launch for the 2014 model year would seem to be unlikely.
Please remember that I wrote the above comment last year. With the EZ "EPA" forcing stop/start forward due to the new carbon emission regs, with pretty severe penalties, I believe the model year of 2014 IS the year. Meaning next year, BMW will likely begin using the PbC in some of their models.
IIRC, the BMW cruisers have been undergoing testing now for a year. Putting out the timeline of 2015, would hence mean that BMW would need in excess of three years to perform real life testing.
I have a hard time figuring that, especially because cop cars take a lot of abuse, and (maybe) are used round the clock.
The biggest take I got from today's CC was that nothing out there can do what the PbC can do, because of both the electrode's uniqueness, as well as the activated carbon cathode.
Any battery using a lead cathode, as it has been proven many times now (including Exide's, JCI's and East Penn's AGM batteries) can not offer up the performance and durability that the PbC holds. This science can not be disproven.
What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. The whole auto industry is heading for a massive amount of p-oed customers, who buy stop/start vehicles, which effectively won't be gaining the full % of fuel savings; will only work...sometimes.
I agree, it seems the whole auto industry is snorting "hopium."
He's posited that when the PbC can be reliably produced in quantity, the regulators will then be paying attention to the failures of the s/s systems to work reliably because there *is* available technology.
We are nearing that point. ELBC may highlight that the time is approaching that mandatory long-lived reliable s/s is on the way soon.
MHO,
hardToLove
I see class action lawsuits as a definite possibility.
If we are willing to live in a world where banks can be trusted to behave ... and we believe them, then why can't chemistry be trumped by brochures. Inquiring minds want to know. After all, we are just trying to deal to the public. What would they know and, besides, what are they going to do .... sue? The mess can be cleaned up and fixed later.
Sales first. It's all about the *NEW*. As I remember auto air conditioning didn't work so well in the beginning.
When I joined this comment board several months back, one of the first things to hit me was that growing problem (it actually p's me off, and I'm not even a customer)--just a matter of time before it's revelation goes viral into a huge mess--customers, regulators, environmentalists, almost everybody. The sooner they adopt PbC, the better. I think that the problem may get to the point of being a phase change--in what looks like all of the sudden (to others!), everybody and his brother realizes the PbC is the s/s answer they need for heavy hotel loads. And we're the only one who's got'm. THAT'S just one of many reasons why I'm still long and patient.
Anyone else sense a bit of "we've got a problem here" desperation in the writing on the 13th ELBC's website?
I don't know if the NS order by itself means that they have stopped testing other batteries, but the fact that TG made the direct statement that "NS is no longer testing other batteries" is a very strong statement on his part which I don't think he would have made if he didn't know it to be true.
Yes, I think the auto industry is going to be in for a rude awakening when they start selling SS as a real option in the US with LA or AGM batteries. They may have been able to pull that diminishing returns crap in Europe, but the US mindset is "if it doesn't work the way it was promised I'm going to sue!"
It shouldn't have been offered in the first place.
Send PbC info to high-profile attorneys specializing in class-action, educating THEM on the "best available technology" for SS.
I can sense them schooling already....
I like the idea, so it should be.
If you ever watch the show Mad Men, I would point to a scene this year in which Don (the main character) is receiving an award for a letter he wrote about the tobacco industry. The men giving him the award are all pillars of industry, slapping him on the back for doing the right thing for the American Cancer Society, on who's board they all are. However, when Don makes a comment about doing business with some of them he is rudely told that none of them will ever do business with him because he bit the hand that fed him. And that...was unforgivable.
I am BTW in agreement with Mr. Granville concerning the importance of the NS selection. I think the market is ignoring how important this really is. I will admit though that I might be wrong in my thinking that the general market is not appreciating this as much as they should using stock price as the measuring stick. There are many other factors that drive short term share price such as overall market conditions, alternate investor interests etc that well could be trumping NS announcement.
I don't disagree about the other batteries. It's like using a Li-ion battery for SS in a micro or mild hybrid. Sure you can do it. Sure it will probably work. But when you add in the cost difference and worries about things like temp variations and such, the PbC just made the most sense and so they stopped testing. And I include this first order of PbC batteries as continued testing, since this is really where the proof in the pudding will be shown.
Boy, I don't know if it's just me but days like today, with so much discussion, really make the format of this form difficult to navigate. Not a big deal because it doesn't happen too often. Could you imagine trying to do this for say AAPL. :(
I have had no problems with SA and the orange flag issue. Two computers and my droid x phone. Different operating systems. Flawless connection. My computer is 4 years old with new MS 7. Laptop the old OS. My phone? New. Whatever it is.
The orange flags are next to the actual post? Then how are they reset them after you read the post? You click on it or something.
Thanks for the response.
Yes, but it is sporadic. Frequently as I scroll between flagged new comments that are spaced several messages apart I spot a few messages I had not seen before.
I had problems with this last month. The solutions I discovered:
- don't have any tracked articles on which you have not read the new comments on in weeks
- don't have more than 4 unread messages in your SA mail in-box.
Oh. Well. Ahem. Of the first I am like 7th level of hell guilty. On the second, I am as pure as new fallen antarctic snow...
let me see if I can heal myself. such thanks...
I've always had problems with the orange flags as well, but it has more to do with my internet software than operating system. I get my email update via AOL, which for some unknown reason, doesn't show the orange flags next to the new posts when I follow the link in my email updates. However, if I open my AOL email by first opening Internet Explorer, or using a Mac, go to AOL.com and follow the updates link that way I see the orange flags for new posts. My problem is that I'm too lazy to do that all the time, so I just scroll down every time and look at the date stamp as I'm going. So my guess is that it isn't a Vista issue as much as a internet software issue.
Moving up, a "next new comment" navigation button (dependent on that first item working correctly). Beyond that, better indents of threads and collapsed threads (flagged if a new comment was in a collapsed thread). Last was a real message board format.
I have no hope they will do anything for us now.
HardToLove
HardToLove
Then click on that when you want to get notifications *now*.
If anything (everything) works right, you'll get a list of articles and instablogs you're following that have new comments down the right side and (sporadically?) the orange notification box in the upper right. You can also click that little "clipboard" on the SA "toolbar" that appears on the right between "Contributor Center" and your ID drop-down menu.
HTH,
HardToLove
HardToLove
Again. I have Vista, Win7, and the google OS. My orange flags always appear. My menu button at the top lets me know about new comments even on ancient articles.
You are not experiencing a SA problem. You are experiencing an SA and your software/hardware problem. All I know is that I know nothing about software or hardware. SA has always just worked for me.
I do remember having issues with chrome a long time back. My browser is firefox and it is wonderful.
"What amazes me is that the whole auto industry is pushing ahead with stop/start, KNOWING they are using batteries that can't obtain full utilization of what the PbC can do. "
I believe that is part of the challenge...getting PbC in front of them.
A long lead time, but hopefully not that long!
They've come too far to drop the ball six months after purchases.
Maybe my snorting "hopium", but just thinking.
"...one of the first things to hit me was that growing problem (it actually p's me off,...)--just a matter of time before it's revelation goes viral into a huge mess--customers, regulators, environmentalists, almost everybody."
Moi aussi!
I've posted that frustration as well.
"...everybody and his brother realizes the PbC is the s/s answer..."
Not yet!
That's Vani's challenge.
"THAT'S just one of many reasons why I'm still long and patient."
1st, the notification of new comments was changed a month ago (or so) to prioritize articles over instablogs. Even if the latest comment on something you're tracking is on an instablog, it'll show real articles first. I unsubscribed from all the articles to get the instablogs to show back up in the drop down list, but you can also get to the instablogs by clicking on "more notifications" and then expanding to see even "more notifications" until you see the instablogs.
2nd, the "new comment" flags ONLY show up if you navigate to the instablog through the new comment notification at the top right of the screen. Whenever I navigate through a SA search or from an email I do not see the "new comment" flags. I believe the flags are triggered by the "&source=tracking_... part of the link and are not automatically generated on every page you load.
This might explain why some people can't see the new comment flags (they're navigating through emailed links or doing a search for the concentrator instead of navigating to the latest tracked instablog). It could also explain why some people don't see tracked instablogs -- they have too many tracked articles that have recently been given priority in the "new comment list" over instablogs.
Then again, it might just be unrelated software issues as you've speculated.
Most recently, the number of unflagged comments seems less, although just a couple weeks ago it was pretty awful.
HardToLove
That's it!!!! I wasn't aware of the re-prioritization (sneaky bastages) but the time of that change maps perfectly... I had nearly a hundred different articles marked for tracking, which I guess just overwhelmed the buffer... anyway, I nuked a coupla dozen of them and Voila, instablogs are now working 4.0. You are the bees knees. much gratitude (and embarrassment that I didn't have the patience/gumption to run this to ground myself)
My guess is a few frustrated Axionistas are selling.
Again, the only thing that has changed is the time frame (whatever that is).
Norfolk's order validates Axion's PbC. As TG stated, it was, "Proof of concept."
MHO,
HardToLove
Anyway, I interpret the edginess of this APC (there, I left out the you-know-which word. See how fast I learn? lol) as being a bit of a buy signal, based on the past 6 months of my informal sentiment observations.
edit:
or...the tree is ripe.. and the field is ready for harvest. whatever.
POC for me is a design win. A market order from whomever (NS/BMW) AFTER field testing is completed. We are just about beginning exhaustive field (fleet) testing in cars and locomotives, orders of the kind I'm looking for are a year or more away. This is the reality.
As wonderful as this concentrator is, we are in our enthusiasm collectively willing this thing to move faster than it can, and this leads to frustration. It has been a long road and will continue to be so for a while yet, even under the best of circumstances.
Some think of me as a troll. I might be just an investor ALWAYS looking at the negative side of my investments. However since i started to post here i always get attacked. Yet it seems that when i point out that this company is far from profitable right now IT is my opinion.
I did sell some of my shares and may continue in the future. But as i just read some others are now stating they are done posting. Tempers seem to be rising, and i am just glad i am not part of it.
Personally i don't care if you accept me, but if you chose to mock my opinions then you just diminish the quality posted here. It is either positive or don't post!!
I never will understand the engineering parts as i was not in the industry. However i still should have a right to post a concern i have, Some had a field day when i posted i did not like the financials, and then i was mocked !!
Well apparently others seem to feel the same way looking at the stock price today. So some should think about ridiculing a person who posts what they feel,
Otherwise you lose your acceptance of others who MIGHT want to post. but more important from those who might want to invest !!!
But if a negative post is a TROLL then i am one...Because i look at both sides of every argument. If oil continues to drop , i also see some other issues rising as well...
Bottom line, Axion has a long way to go and if the economy starts to tank ( it already has imo ) things will really slow down.
MAP
What I don't understand is your propensity to conveniently forget what has been repeatedly written here in these blogs...when the timing suits you to do so, and that's always when something negative about Axion emerges, you emerge, forgetful of what has already been discussed countless times here in these APCs.
All things relative, we own a developmental company that's a hair's breath away from becoming a manufacturing company.
Months, not years.
Fully realizing that this is my opinion only, anyone buying shares today, or tomorrow or the next day, should garner faster annual asset appreciation from today than any other asset they own.
I hold shares I bought from $1.20 all the way down to 28 cents. I hold zero fears Axion won't make it, and that someday I will be able to sell those $1.20 shares for a handy profit.
Thats just it.....I question profitability in 2013 right now. I stay quiet because i have nothing to add technically. But when people start predicting dates then i question.
Hell, even TG said that NS sale was way behind what they were expecting. My concerns are Axion essentially has just two customers .
One buying most of the flodded batteries, and ONE order from NS.
One day i also hope that others join in, but right now it is wishful thinking.
Then if we have another dilution because of lack of sales what's the price gonna be ?? ,25 cents a share? So yes i conveniently wait until i want to voice my concern. Otherwise reading all the technical stuff means nothing to me if it doesn't turn into sales.
I might add i really don't read these post everyday because it is kinda like a soap on TV. You can miss a week and be at the same spot..
I hope for all you are right, as i will hold onto a percentage of my shares. But i honestly aren't convinced this is a home run yet !!
If that is because of my ignorance then its my fault, but if it is wishful thinking of others then well see down the road..
I might add i won't be adding shares at this point...Be my guest if you do.
LoL! That slipped by me - but it is so true.
HardToLove
Caveat emptor and own due diligence required for all blogs/articles, reading and following comments.
One must understand the type/experience of "trader" or "investor" commenting.
One must also differentiate the newbies from the techies from the detail commenters, big picture commenters, business savvy commenters...read...di... in context.
I for one find this series of blogs to be the most transparent, interesting, educational, blunt, direct and open to any constructive or non hidden agenda queries.
This blog is different probably because the core initial group has not moved on but rather has stayed and taught and learned from each other.
If they're not yet doing fleet testing now, and they start this summer, then it'd have to be done by year-end to make the 2014 models. Wouldn't it?
Sorry I didn't ask the question explicitly the first time.
I think TG will reveal much more at the shareholders conference. Although, because of this blog, I also expect him to be more guarded than he was last year.
As for BMW testing in cruisers, I don't recall when or in what APC(s) this has been discussed. But I know it has been discussed.
We may be talking semantics, because we don't know, or I can't recall how many cop cars are being tested. What exactly is fleet testing? How many cars does it take to be considered a fleet?
I honestly don't know. But what I do know is what Bob Avrill stated at the past shareholders conference is keen and proving out dead on correct.
I sure wish it meant "fast testing"!
<*sigh*>
HardToLove
Could this be with another OEM, other than BMW?
I'd have to go back and do some research, but I believe the penalties Europe intends to wage on the automakers have already begun this year. Penalties will scale up significantly year after year, until 2016. Introducing stop/start in 2015 would not be the frugal thing to do, as I believe hundreds of millions of dollars/euros are involved.
1. Nov. 2011 CC:
"[BMW is] doing testing of our product to confirm the things that we have found here and that testing has proceeded beyond bench testing. I can’t really get into a whole lot more detail about that"
2. Axion Investor Presentation:
"OEM vehicle testing of PbC® battery with optimized hybrid vehicle system architecture began in 2011" (p. 21/28)
http://bit.ly/Hfv7fu
Does anyone have any information on the nature of / reasons for / significance of the "latest battery iteration"?
Not that I know of. I wanted to ask the question too, but my 10:30 meeting didn't get over until almost noon so I didn't get to call in either. I'm hoping that the "latest battery iteration" are just to show that what is coming off the assembly line now is no different than what was coming off 3 or 6 months ago as far as QC.
The other possibility I see is that BMW's engineers have been working with the PbC and asked them to "tweak" certain aspects of it to meet their specific auto needs. Remember that TG said that the form of PbC batteries coming off the lines now are ready for use in rail and cube applications. It may be that there needs to be changes made to make them work better for SS applications that have been shaken out during the auto OEM's testing. At least that's my theory.
HardToLove
Yes. I see it as no different than what you see now with LA starter batteries. If your car needs a new one you go to Sears or wherever and chose between a couple batteries that they have the meet the specifications for your car. Every battery they carry won't work in your car because they are configured slightly differently depending on the needs of your vehicle. Why would a SS battery be any different? You've got micro to mild hybrids in different size vehicles with different power systems, different regenerative braking systems, different transmissions, etc. That's why they are selling to OEMs and not on the secondary market. As John has often said, the OEMs are going to need to design their SS systems around the PbC's advantages. One would also assume that Axion will need to makes variations of their basic battery to meet multiple needs. That why I believe TG specified that rail and Cube applications were ready for immediate release with the current PbC battery configuration. Because those applications don't need changes to fit their systems. They just need more or less strings of batteries with the electrical and BMS to go with it.
As I understand it, the current carbon sheeting technology is a 2011 vintage development. Before that, everything was multi-pass with a high labor content. I don't know whether it was a series of incremental improvements that took the number of passes from ±30 down to 1, but it's darned impressive in any event.
IIRC, it has to do with thickness and/or number of cells per battery (voltage) and number of "plate assemblies" on the negative electrode (power vs. energy).
I *think* more plate assemblies gave more power (more surface area) and fewer but thicker plates gave more energy (greater storage capacity).
But that's a hazy memory with no foundation of experience to back it up.
HardToLove
This is at the cell level, not the battery level, and is independent of 6-cell batteries (12 v) or 8-cell batteries (16 v) design. Either can emphasize power or energy.
I don't think there would be significant changes to electrolyte or binder specifications in power vs energy tweaking. Some high energy Pb-acid batteries have issues with dendritic growths shorting out the battery, so greater electrolyte thickness (less Pb) is necessary to allow for these growths. I do not know if these are an issue with PbC chemistry. Since AGM batteries generally do not have these issues, I doubt PbC does.
There may be some tweaks in the connectors and terminals. High power also means high amperage, so there has to large cross-sectional area of the connectors between cells, and the terminals. A low power (but high energy) battery could theoretically use lighter connectors. However, a PbC energy battery would presumably run all the way down to 2 volts, which could generate significant amperage, and therefore need the heavy duty connection of a high power battery. My guess is they are using standardized connections across all batteries.
Caveat: I am not a battery engineer; corrections and additions welcome.
If you go to any of the Axion presentations, they have a slide that shows how electrode stacks are interleaved with separators and then top welded with an L shaped lug. When the electrodes stacks are inserted in the cells, the lugs line up with 1/2 " holes in the cell partitions and the lugs for the electrode stacks in the next cell. As the last step before the cover is mounted, the adjoining top lugs in each cell are spot-welded to the lugs in the next cell through the partition holes. It's an extremely reliable way to get cell to cell connections that can stand whatever amperage the battery can throw at them. It's a standard manufacturing process throughout the industry and nobody messes with it because it works so well.
When I expressed concerns after the offering and the stock was selling at 48 cents some suggested I sell if I was bothered by the offering. So I did and I am glad I did. I sold at 48 cents, made about 20% on my investment, and have started to get back in with a goal of averaging back in at 39 cents or less again. The point is that if the fundamentals or the market conditions suggest the stock may languish or slide for a while, it is ok to be realistic and sell and then get back in when the time seems more opportune, even if some others suggest you are being negative. I welcome insight into a situation, positive or negative, that can help me and others make informed decisions. And while I love the PbC tech, I understand that the stock price will, in the words of the experts, fluctuate. There is nothing wrong with me or Bang or HTL or others selling and then buying back if we sense the market has gotten ahead of the sales and intrinsic value.
We bottom feeding Axionistas are patient and don't pay much attention to the "anxiety of the day". Except to try and profit by it.
The product and company are both just fine. Advancing sales in the face of a weak economy is encouraging and says the buyers expects a return on their money.
I might have omitted some things or some may be just plain incorrect. Just my perspective on Axion as a company.
15 May 2012
STRENGTHS
Patent protection
Technology and research make it difficult to copy
Companies recognize potential
NS and BMW have let Axion disclose relationship
OEM - vehicle testing stage
Stingy Management
Strengths of Product - voltage equilization in strings, carbon negative electrode means no sulfization, safe, recyclable, works in wide range of temperatures, perhaps ideal for S/S applications due to cost, charge acceptance, number of cycles.
Viridity partnership
Have good industry contacts through Mr. Dantam
WEAKNESSES
Revenues still low
Are entering new markets with PC - frequency regulation, power smoothing,
FERC rulings are murky
Testing periods are long
Negative cash flow
Marketing process takes long time.
OPPORTUNITIES
Norfolk Southern will soon begin testing NS999 and may purchase more batteries for further electric yard slugs
Cooperation with NS on hybrid locomotive
In talks with other RR’s
Grid based storage opportunities - have several RFP’s out there
Military Grid - RFP’s out there
Residential PC - introduced in September,.marketed by Rosewater.
Opportunities arising in other areas but TG can’t speak about them as have NDA’s.
Rosewater to begin testing with Ontario
Several OEM’s testing PbC.
Oil rig application being marketed with Rosewater
THREATS
Just good enough battery chemistry wins, i.e. ultrabattery
Running out of cash before can win contracts as testing periods drag on.
New product that may not be understood
Share price suffers with lack of orders and next round of financing goes off at low price.
New government regulations on lead.
New battery chemistries.
Economy derails investment plans
Government puts the kabash on renewable energy.
Other chemistries may prove better for grid based applications
I think it is kind of random. I've missed out before, but got in at today's lows with your broker
Used another platform and got filled at .38 as well.
Honestly, my secret is to decide a price point you are willing to buy and let the market come to you. If it never hit my limit of .38... oh well.... it wasn't meant to be. I guess I'm one of the invertebrates JP loves so much.
Oh, Tim... one more thing.... if 10k doen't move... try 5k or 2k... and wait... sometimes a little patience works, but to my point above: you've gotta be O.K. if you don't get filled. There is always another day and another price point.
Just MHO....FWIW
Nevertheless, perhaps there is some risk that the company will not survive in its current form. I am NOT well qualified to speak to that but would love to see an exploration here of potential scenarios which could lead to the company filing for bankruptcy. What are the odds of that? Thanks.
I'd expect to see Axion cut costs and staff to the bone before we'd have to worry about it. The biggest threat for bankruptcy is debt, and Axion has no bonds. I wouldn't expect them to issue any either unless they were damn sure an order is about to come in. That would be the only time I'd like to see a debt issue vs another share sale.
I have no problem with going the high road and pointing out how another product has better performance characteristics. Obviously most would have a problem with the alternate method. Your method is to me quite ethical. I feel this way because I think the auto companies are being less than fair with consumers putting some of the systems out in the field knowing how poorly they will function under certain use profiles just to get government credits. This to me boarders on fraud.
Okay, does this make me a consumer activist? <smile>
PS Agreed on the "boarders on fraud" statement but will leave that for others (oops guess I am not quite an activist <smile>)
If the OEMs continue using the current flawed solution, at least in this country the problem's eventually going viral, I'm convinced. If there was a prop bet opportunity, I'd bet on it. In lieu of that, AXPW shares helps.
I wish good night.
I want to remind everyone to be respectful of each other and when you find a post you do not agree with to either respond respectfully or move on.
Thank you.
One bit of web insight. If Google has already spidered the comment (they are busy little devils) it will probably remain on the server and the search results until the server dies. Google is like a vacuum cleaner - once its in the bag it doesn't come out.
This is normal. And more so here as the normal visual cues that aid conversation and understanding are not available to us. Mixing different personalities, more negative and more positive views, the tendency of people to "defend" their positions, folks get tired of hearing always negative or always positive without "balance" (from their POV), ...
These are exactly the sort of things that *may* be, and *should* be resolved via PMs.
In that forum *extended* discussions that provide additional clarity and foster understanding, *without* disturbing the prime function of the instablog, can occur.
The rule to follow in that case is that anything discussed "in private" should be kept private by both parties unless one or both agree that public disclosure is OK.
IOW, "Why don't you two just get a room"! ;-))
MHO, with best intentions,
HardToLove
I recall one case where the other party brought it to the fore, and that "breaking of the contract" would permit me to bring it forward.
OTOH, maybe that wasn't it - might have been "troll-like behavior" that prompted it.
HardToLove
However, they often involved disagreeable intellectuals anyway...
I remember that now.
It wasn't an attempt by the other party to reach accommodation. It was our very first troll over in the QCs, IIRC.
The vituperation was such that after receiving that particular one, I felt no obligation to maintain confidentiality at all!
Exceptions to every rule. But I can recall no instance of honest discourse being revealed without consent.
HardToLove
I have never meant any disrepect to anyone. But when you get accused of multiple identities, or a troll...It does wear on you. I did make a very bad comment to Bang and i wrote him personally to apologize.
MAYA also posted that i have one identity but unfortunately that was removed as well. I also wrote APH and asked that they remove my comment to Bang.
I am man enough to even post i was wrong with what i said. You have one BANG in a PM as well.
Keep up you insights and your impressions of cc comments. Because i was on the same page as you about the % gain spoken about in the last cc.
It seems if i understand this correctly TG will never give us a going forward opinion of what will be accomplished yearly.
We all need to take a breath as this is going to be a marathon...
map
I mostly lurk, but sometimes make comments to be sociable. I have noticed (can be checked easily in past APCs) that just before and just after quarterly statements and CCs there is a lot of guessing and building of expectations. The result is emotion and disappointment with heavy disagreements afterwards. There are those here with different opinions and investing styles, this helps to keep us honest even if we don't want to hear it. I value the opinions that don't match mine as food for thought. I think that when everybody calms down and gets back on track they will remember the true value of the APC. Social contact with the purpose of DD and factual information. The APCs can be a curse as well as a blessing, putting a microscope on a microcap while dissecting every part of the subject can become subjective and emotionally charged. The stock is what it is and will take however much time it will take, but I think it will do well as I like the technology and management and respect the investors on this site. To quote Rodney King "can't we all just get along?" JMHO, and we all know what that is worth.
Seriously, until today, AXPW has been downright stable compared to many sectors in this market, and this is a microcap OTC stock.
I've got a biotech that fell 30% already, after announcing positive data. Why? Because a bunch of swing traders were expecting a massive jump and didn't get it. And the stock didn't really run up much beforehand. It's just that it's a low volume stock so there is nobody to catch a fall.
It's the same here. We caused our own 10% drop because the sellers today wanted to all squeeze through the exit? And why? Because they don't want to wait a little bit more.
Nothing about the fundamentals in either company had changed for the worse. If anything, both have exciting prospects that will reward the patient.
Momo traders generally have strict exit rules and today would've met the requirement for a fast exit to minimize losses. "Keep your your losses small and let your winners run".
From today's action, I think there were also some folks that had longer-term targets in mind but decided the opportunity cost was too large for the time-frame they could see now.
MHO,
HardToLove
:-) Little bit more is okay here, but I dunno if 'little bit' encompasses through pre-school for my youngest grandchild (5 weeks age).
My take away is that Axion will be around for years.
IMHO this blog has a problem: Nothing is going on with the stock (while a lot is going on with the company), and this is a blog. So, people post. What happens when you comment on paint drying?
Also understand your statement concerning the blog. But let's face it. Money has always caused anxiety for people and people will be people. Everyone deals with anxiety in different ways. Surely you know more on the topic than I given your background.
But, back to watching the paint.
http://bit.ly/K3PZaK
Even if Axion were (temporarily) sole-source, Axion's customers will be competing and that competitive pressure wll flow through to Axion's pricing.
Once the JVs that make more cathodes pop up, the scene changes even more.
I don't believe that long-term there is going to be such an issue.
MHO,
HardToLove
OTOH, an outfit like East Penn that "sees" the same marketplace and opportunities that Axion "sees" will be more likely to support the approach of addressing all (within reason) niches that might might be appropriate.
This helps *broaden* the product line and markets whereas NSC might tend to try and influence in a manner that narrows the product line and markets.
The former offers a better future, IMO.
HardToLove
Competition among battery suppliers helps hold down the price of batteries to the extent they are built with commoditized resources. But, the only thing restraining price on sole source resources (PbC electrodes) is the price/performance ratios of alternative technologies. A healthy price for PbC electrodes is needed to recover development costs for the technology, But present/future pricing power of the electrode supplier strikes me as a risk factor "Tier I" users in target markets will want to mitigate against.
And it may make sense in transportation costs to have an electrode factory in Europe, either on a license or a joint venture or something like that.