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  • Axion Power Concentrator 101: May 16, 2012: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012 206 comments
    May 16, 2012 7:18 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated May 15th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Century Concentrator Comments -- 18,080 comments through 99 concentrators since July 21, 2011.

    (updated May 15th)

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (206)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Latest Post from JP:
    #####

     

    For everybody who's ever worried about flippers in Axion, I want you to take a few minutes to read and learn from an 8-K that the erstwhile A123 filed last night. – http://1.usa.gov/JiwJ8f

     

    They're going to sell $50 million of notes by Friday. The notes will be payable in 28 semi-monthly installments of $1.786 million each commencing on July 1 (as in six weeks from now). The company may, at its option, make the payments in cash or settle them with shares of common stock.

     

    If A123 elects to make the payments in shares of common stock, the conversion price will be the LESSER of $1.15 per share, or 82% of the VWAP for the five days preceding a conversion.

     

    A123 has a very healthy market with a 200-day average volume of 2.9 million shares. At yesterday's close, it would take about 2.1 million new shares to satisfy the July 1st payment, and another 2.1 million new shares to satisfy the July 15th payment. You can see where this is going real quick.

     

    In the trade this kind of debt instrument is referred to as a *death spiral convertible* because the constant dribble of new shares into the market on a semi-monthly basis exerts a persistent downward pressure on the stock price. The lenders don't really care as long as their next payment comes in at an 18% discount to the decaying price. A123 may be big enough and strong enough to survive the pressure, but it will take an immense amount of flawless execution and more than a little hype to maintain a stable price in the face of relentless selling.

     

    I may hate to see short-term flippers moving out of a fixed number of shares they bought in February, but I know they can't last much longer. It's vastly preferable to a guaranteed 14 months of unrelenting misery.
    16 May 2012, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    thanks for posting this.
    16 May 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the opportunity to learn about financing methods that can destroy a company. Very interesting stuff.

     

    I finally had a chance to listen to the CC.
    I thought it interesting that TG is preaching patience.
    He is still holding the "I can't tell you a big secret" card.
    He seemed to indicate that a new unspoken of market will be rearing its head.
    I am still hearing a sermon on the oil well applications but this time he indicated that it would be a manufacturer of oil wells that is testing, not retrofit for existing wells. I found that interesting.
    He will likely never again give us a numbers forecast. Lesson well learned.
    He did indicate that they are shooting for the numbers he previously projected.

     

    He is buckling his seat belt for blast off.

     

    Me Too.
    16 May 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    While we obviously had a few upset holders yesterday, I think the most upset holders would have been upset in any event because the tone of their posts changed over the last few months. Some have compared Axion to watching paint dry. Sometimes I wonder whether it isn't more like watching a covered painting in an artist's studio dry. I agree with your assessment that there something going on that Tom's never spoken about before, and he really wants to talk about. Unfortunately there hasn't even been any grape-vine buzz about what it might be.
    16 May 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Pre-production R&D stuff.

     

    Hello honey! How was your day.

     

    (Reaches in pocket and hits playback button.)

     

    Can't talk about it. :(
    16 May 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I like the covered painting metaphor. Much more apt. There's several holes in the covering shroud, allowing us a few clues here and there, but that's it. We won't *really* know whether we've got a Picasso, or a Parrish until the wraps come off for the big reveal. It's fascinating on one level, and maddening too. As far as the big secret, to me it does seem like something sexy is going on, and I tend to think that it's either military/DOD related, or Septa...
    16 May 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I won't even try to guess because the team keeps surprising me by delivering more than I expected. I went to Istanbul expecting to learn that the PbC was a good fit for stop-start, but I never expected BMW to effectively say that everything else sucks. I expected a PowerCube and got the first behind-the-meter frequency regulation project in the country. I thought the next reasonable step for NS would be a test fleet in the 10 unit range but our friends who went to the ESA meeting are reporting rumors of more and sooner.
    16 May 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I generally can't keep myself from indulging in whimsical conjecture now and then... and one thought I've been returning to is the fact that the Navy has a long range goal of greater electrification on many of its nextgen ships--aircraft launch catapults, arresting gear (which absorb a lot of energy in every trap---talk about dynamic braking ;) railguns, aircraft elevators, etc etc, even electric propulsion and high-wattage lasers, all with the goal of trying to get more and more away from hydraulics and steam and explosive propellants. One thing nearly all those systems require are reliable sources of short duration but very high-power energy...Now I believe the Navy's looked/looking at flywheels, and supercapacitors, and of course Li-ion to deliver these high-power needs, but being so robust, cheap, safe, durable, and above all high-rate rechargeable, PbC tech could definitely find its way into many vital roles onboard warships.
    16 May 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    From the tone I suspect Tom is being very careful in his comments on the CCs. He is one of very few CEOs that gets every word dissected through a small cadre of shareholders publicly each and every conference call.
    16 May 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    Looks like all you who had orders in @ .39 GTC got your wish. I think I'll take a title loan on my car!
    16 May 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Lurking back at $.35, looks like it is sinking to my level...
    16 May 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    I think I got 100K at 0.38
    If that is the case I hereby own/control 1.026.550 shares in Axion.

     

    Thank you to you all fellow Axionistas for helping me to make the best informed share purchase in the 30 years I have been investing.
    16 May 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic! Thanks for mopping up some shares down here.

     

    PS Have any friends that want to get in? ;^) I think you mentioned your wife was buying, too. The Brandt Group is now a major holder, the way I look at it, anyway.
    16 May 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I hope you got it Poul. Good luck.
    16 May 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    My mother has specifically said at several occasions that she does NOT want any more Axion shares. So I will have to look somewhere else for more buyers.
    :-)
    16 May 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    You got 'em! I saw your trade go off.

     

    Congratulations and I look forward to your gains down the road!

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Great!
    16 May 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Gee whiz! You have a large collection. You sir, are perhaps the first invertebrate to have grown a large pair of spines. Hope it works well for you and me both,
    16 May 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Large pair of brass spines?
    16 May 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    exactly, diamond even. More volume please to clear out the supply.
    16 May 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    We catfish are famous for our spiney fins.
    16 May 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Fine research, John.
    16 May 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Poul,

     

    Kudos on your excellent purchases.

     

    However, I would discourage people from listing the number of shares they own.

     

    The percentage of your holdings tied up in Axion would be a more meaningful assessment of your risk profile vis-a-vis the company. One million shares for some may be less than 1% of their net worth, and for others more than their entire net worth.

     

    One person can own 100,000 shares but its only 3% of their investments while another owns 25,000 shares but its 50% of their investments. All very different situations ill informed by the number of shares owned.

     

    Just my two cents.
    16 May 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I disagree. I think the more liquidity of info, the better. Hence it should be encouraged, subject to whatever restrictions there might be from whomever (e.g., does SeekingAlpha have a problem with it? Any other entity?).

     

    What is the priority ranking of such info? Is it more valuable to know that Blackrock owns x # of shares, or that the fund that owns it has a y $ sized portfolio? If we had a choice of info to know, which we probably won't for individuals here, I would vote for the former. And preferable to that, who wouldn't like to know intentions? Anyway, some info is better than none.

     

    For me, just knowing that a large holder has added down here makes me at least a little more comfortable.
    16 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    if Poul is Andre the Giant... then I'm just a little GI Joe... but with one heck of a Kung-Fu grip! ;)
    16 May 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Jon,

     

    yes, risk profile is another way of seeing it. But what can other Axionistas use that information to?

     

    Actually, I just wanted to share my enjoyment that I has now have reached a "goal" / round figure of 1 mill. shares. And at the same time share that the purchase would never have taken place without the APH, and what I have learned here.

     

    However, taken in itself the number of shares can be a significant information, as it gives an indication of the "strength" of us Axionistas.

     

    About the risk profile. First please note that I do not own all these shares. They are owned by 7 different people, with different risk profiles in the range 10-100%. As for my own risk profile it is slightly below 20%. 20% invested in one share is the maximum allowed in pension accounts according to Danish rules, so that poses a limit on that part of my investment. And your risk profile?
    16 May 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Poul:
    Congratulations, that number makes me envious of the good. Now You and JP belong to the group of large shareholders.
    Have a nice day.
    16 May 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I and Poul,

     

    I think an anonymous count of how many shares all Axionistas have in total is useful information.

     

    However, my concern is for the full range of investors in this chat room. We have folks in here that have been investing for less than 5 years who are still learning how to assess risk for themselves, and still learning their own risk profiles. Heck, I've been investing for over 15 years and I'm still assessing my own risk profile and learning.

     

    20% is a major position in a single stock. If it works - which we all obviously think it will - this will be a great boon to an investment portfolio. If some unknown something sneaks up and cause it to fail, that's 20% wiped clean off the table. That's a more binary picture than it is...

     

    ... but to cut to the chase as I have negative amounts of time right now: as much as the engineers and science guys educate us all well about the technical side of this product; I think those with more investing experience should post with an eye to educating the lesser experienced on how to evaluate their own positions, and gauge size position is personally right for them.

     

    As I suspect you both well know, and Poul has mentioned, and I have mentioned... I've never seen anything like this conversation about a single stock before in my investing experience... and I doubt I'll see it again. So, I was just - from my own awkward perspective - trying to make it a big tent that helps the smallest investors as much - or more - as the biggest.
    16 May 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Jon

     

    Good point. I will keep that in mind.

     

    I am the type of investor that only holds shares in a few companies, and then follow these closely. Having worked as an engineer in manufacturing companies with heavy R&D for years I understand this kind of "traditional" companies best. I do not know how to evaluate facebook and that kind of "fluffy" companies.

     

    And I have lost 20% in one single company more times than I want to remember.
    16 May 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I consider censorship of investment info something to be avoided if at all possible, as it inevitably leads to sub-optimal decisions by responsible adults.

     

    I think the most open flow of info possible helps every responsible adult investor. What someone does with that info, though, is another matter, and in my worldview, 100% their responsibility.
    16 May 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    Congrats Poul,

     

    I'm glad the shares are in good hands. I, too, bought more at .38.... although I would love to see a puke down to .35 so I can add some more, but it may or may not happen. I'm easy.... I'd be happy with more at .36
    16 May 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I wish just once I could hear a commenter on this board say *To hell with the bottom feeding, I want to chase the price up*
    17 May 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    To heck with *chasing* anything.

     

    ...When at last our phoenix takes flight, I'm damn sure gonna be on the manifest: "To soar on wings like eagles; to run and not grow weary, to walk and not be faint."

     

    And so I'm strapped in onboard until takeoff. period.

     

    "It's spinach, dear"
    "Well, I say it's broccoli, and I say the hell with it!" ;)
    17 May 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    John: Come the day when Axion shows its stuff, there will be plenty of newcomers to this blog panting and huffing and chasing...

     

    While those sitting on more Axion shares than they can afford for the long slog leading to that point will just smile and enjoy the ride.

     

    ...Not talking about myself, of course. I am in at a cheap price, and count my blessings for that. No, on that halycon day I will be looking for short cycle trading opportunities, to pull profits out and park additional free shares in the hoard while the newbies run hard after the rabbit.
    17 May 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know whether you caught my two Instablogs on two prior deals that had mini versions of the supply and demand imbalance that Axion's had to slog through over the last two years. If you haven't read them, they're probably worth a couple minutes of your time.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Since I've never had a stock consolidate for as long as Axion has and I've never seen this many shares move from weak hands to strong ones, the inflection point will be a real education for me.
    17 May 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I saw them, and I agree with your theory. It explains so much...

     

    I never wrote it up, but I was struggling and arriving at the same conclusion to explain the very different (but similar in this one way) case of MCP, their lockboxes, and the problem of a hot company with too few shares to buy.

     

    Supply and demand imbalance, although in the case of MCP it was planned rather than the result of misadventure.

     

    I am thinking that when the day comes that loads of people are chasing Axion stock up the charts, we will see some of the share scarcity problem to help push the share price. That's what we might view as "good imbalance".
    17 May 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My pet ego stroking theory goes something like this:

     

    1. We know that 50 to 60 million shares have moved from weak hands to strong hands over the last couple years;
    2. For all of management's strengths, their investor and public relations skills leave something to be desired;
    3. The only people who've heard enough about Axion to be interested in the stock are readers of my blog;
    4. Nothing I write appeals to hot money types, but there's a good deal to attract long-ball hitters who are looking for multi-baggers;

     

    Therefore it's reasonable to assume that most of those 50 to 60 million shares are sitting in sock drawers and won't see the light of day until the long-ball hitters' expectations are met or exceeded. We can't see it yet because there are some straggling weak hands sellers, but the Axionistas own this market and may well collectively control the company. Trying to exert any control over this group would be like herding cats, but it's a force to be reckoned with.
    17 May 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I can tell you that I'm done adding to my Axion position for the present. I've got my core. I've got my trading blocks. Neither of which are underwater @$.38 enough to give me heartburn. I'll start buying again when share price gets back to $.65 and I can lag my basis by about 25%. 'til then I'm over on the bench with the paint.
    17 May 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's one of those dynamics I've seen with surprising regularity but have never been able to quantify – holders like you who build a core position at a low price and then add shares as the price improves.

     

    It all ties in with my pet theory that over the last couple years we've had several times as many watchers as we've had buyers.

     

    I think all watchers all have very personal *event requirements* that will start moving them from the watchers camp to the buyers camp. For some a minimum revenue level will be the trigger event. For others, a purchase order like the one that just came in from NS will be the trigger event. Others still will wait for multiple orders from different sectors, EBITDA break even or even profitability.

     

    The variety of triggers is almost infinite but every watcher has one and as the trigger events get progressively more substantive, the number of watchers coming off the bench with each event gets larger. I believe the NS purchase and the last conference call started bringing some new bottom feeders into the fold. Further progress will bring in more bodies.

     

    Deciding it's time to sit on the bench is oftentimes a good idea, as long as you stay active in this forum.
    17 May 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    JP > "I wish just once I could hear a commenter on this board say *To hell with the bottom feeding, I want to chase the price up*"

     

    Did that, JP, paid $0.60 share and watched Axion issue new shares at $0.35.

     

    'Quoth the Raven, "Nevermore!"'
    17 May 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough D-inv. Like you, I hated the price. I just knew it beat the hell out of the alternatives and I thank my lucky stars that Axion wasn't forced to take vulture financing on terms like the ones A123 just announced. – http://bit.ly/JNqYSN

     

    Sometimes I just have to sit back, count my blessings, and remember that "there but for the grace of God go I."
    17 May 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Almost like voting triggers .... many people have one or two hot button issues that cause them to vote for one party or another.
    17 May 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's very similar. It's one thing to like the concept and the progress that's been made to date, and another entirely to pull the trigger until there's more tangible progress. Transition stage companies are very scary and the vast majority of investors are willing to forego the first couple hundred percent of upside potential to minimize their downside risk. I like the elephant hunt because I've spent the last 30 years as a guide in the valley of death. I certainly can't criticize those who want to avoid the months of boredom and thirst punctuated by brief moments of terror and jubilation.
    17 May 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... This is truly my first foray into actual off exchange, penny stock speculation. I've done a little in companies that have product in the market & an exchange listing, but I normally don't like developmental situations and I really don't understand the minds of the OTC BB penny traders. If this were a normal situation for me, I would have been drawn the NS event as a baseline to begin (and very, very tepidly) start a position in Axion.

     

    Field trials would be an indicator that Axion might stand a chance of making it but is still no sure bet. Heck, Exide would seem to be a better play for purely fundamental reasons. The next build point would be the signing of a PC sale at the Sept. home show or NS coming back for expanded test trials. The real attention grabber would be the economic evaluation with fleet testing by NS. BMW-F announcing the same would also grab the attention of what I consider highly speculative traders and the hold-back here would be production capacity within Axion. I'd want to see other market development before I got too excited but I'd buy or add ... again tepidly.

     

    Customer No. 1 - a company that says, with a P.O., Axion is the solution to a problem - is the event that will move Mr. Market. Still only a little, but it will seem like an explosion to us. I look for Axion to bloom if/when it either joins an exchange with a customer in-hand or it manages to run out of manufacturing space and test its business model. This overstock of shares aside, Axion has another year ... easily ... before trading begins on market fundamentals. I never thought it would take 5 long years because I saw the value in the technology and common sense of the New Castle purchase ... meh ... Now I know better how little I know about business development.
    17 May 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    John, isn't it more like "herding invertebrates?"
    17 May 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't disagree with your assessments of the events that will begin to move the market in a major way. I remain convinced, however, that the overstock of shares in weak hands is the biggest reason that Axion isn't tantalizingly close to an exchange listing. I'm also convinced that the overstock can't survive the summer unless demand dries up.

     

    I've always been a 24 to 36 month timeframe kind of guy and I often wonder whether I would have gotten involved at the outset if I knew how difficult it was going to be. The flip side of the coin is that I had no idea at the outset that the PbC's potential would be as large as it appears today. Based on the reports we heard from Rick Krementz and Ryan Stanton, it sounds like Axion is seriously discussing fleet testing with NS. I'll give long odds that the same type of discussions are happening with automakers. Tom's always said that he expected 2013 to be the revenue hockey stick year. For that to happen, 2012 has to be the news hockey stick year.

     

    For now, it's all up to the battery.
    17 May 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I want to chase the price up if that pleases you JP. I want to do that for two reasons. First I am underwater and picking up shares at the bottom lets me gain profits from the bottom as well as loss reduction at the top. I had a GTC limit at .60 running for a long time this year based on a trigger price of .47. I finally used the funds to just purchase more shares. I had the limit .60 price with the .47 trigger in an effort to catch any gap up before it ran out of reach.

     

    As long as the combination of a low average is in place for other investors who aren't underwater like me picking up shares on the way up will still keep a safe average below the current price and is my preferred method of investing.
    17 May 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    "*To hell with the bottom feeding, I want to chase the price up*"
    We can't chase the price up as long as there are willing sellers at this price. But at least we keep gulping up what we can so we all don't drown in a falling price. Poul buys 100K...I buy 12K. We all do what we can with the funds we have, and hope we are all as smart as we think we are.
    17 May 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When the selling stops I pity the guy who wants to buy your shares.
    17 May 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I figure in a few years I'm either going to be in one of two situations. I'm going to be Michael Douglas in "Romancing the Stone" explaining to Turner that "I'm not cheap, but I can be bought", or I'm going to be Michael Douglas in "Wall Street" talking to Charlie Sheen when Sheen (Buddy) says "it's three minutes to close, what do you want to do?" and Douglas as Gekco says "dump it all." and the screen fades to black. I've been in both situations before, I'm obviously hoping for the former and not the later.
    18 May 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "Don't worry, I'll send the boat back for you...!"

     

    "When?"

     

    "Soon!"

     

    "How soon?"

     

    "Very Soon..."

     

    ps: For Joan Wilder, I'd have been cheap.
    18 May 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    If I had more cash I'd be buying more. This call to me is extremely bullish. TG saying that he doesn't believe the automotives are that far away.
    16 May 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Look its readily apparent this battery is going to scale to tons of applications. The markets this battery could affect are enormous. Given its passing the automotives testing and already passed the NS test I think the proof is in the pudding. Its now all up to Vani to make this thing fly off the shelf.

     

    I'm even more bullish than 6 weeks ago. Sure it'll take a few years, but this thing has wings.
    16 May 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Eight years ago we didn't have a whole lot of clear visibility on where the PbC would be useful, but we were confident it would be useful somewhere. The clearest candidate was smoothing the minute to minute variability of wind and solar.

     

    Over the last few years application requirements have evolved in a way that I couldn't have imagined in 2003 and the number of potential markets is getting mind boggling.

     

    There are some who shake their heads in disgust over the prospect of more testing. I understand that testing in the auto-industry is a lot like Special Forces training, it's designed to flunk you out as quickly as possible. So it's music to my ears when I hear Tom go through a litany of success after success:

     

    Our bench testing – Done
    Their bench testing – Done
    Third party testing – Done
    Vehicle testing – Done (or at least very advanced)
    Fleet testing – Next in line, but the customers control timing

     

    We like to think the automakers are behind the curve somehow, but the reality is they've already done their equivalent of the NS 999 and OTR builds. Since it doesn't cost much to put PbC batteries in a few cars and run them through their paces, the automakers' work has been quieter than the work at NS. I don't believe the lack of noise can be interpreted as a lack of progress.

     

    The key is the PbC is still standing after three years of automaker torture and two and a half years of railroad brutalization.
    16 May 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "Since it doesn't cost much to put PbC batteries in a few cars..." Still, it must be remembered, and you've made the point excellently before John, that thorough testing of the PbC by an auto company does involve and signify a significant investment in PbC on their part. It may not cost all that much to put a few batteries in a few cars, but the overall program, involving much time and talent, especially when stretched out over several years, is no small chunk of cash. Just carrying the testing program this far represents something of a big dollar endorsement of Axion's technology...
    16 May 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    11:56:42 AM: AXPW holding up better than I would have anticipated today.

     

    Avg. Tr. Sz: 6800 - this late in the day, higher than our normal range.
    VWAP: $0.3847 - combined with the trade size, very encouraging.
    Buy:Sell 1:1.15 - on a day when I expected selling pressure, buying pressure appeared and kept this fairly well balanced thus far.

     

    Over all, even if we get a few days typical selling after "disappointing" (to some) CC, this shows a lot of folks are taking the longer-term view and the sell-down should be less than I was thinking might occur.

     

    Caveat: it's only mid-day and things could change.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    We're seeing some pretty healthy volume today...somebody's certainly letting go of some shares, but I just don't get who sells out here. I can understand some trading and adjustments, but not abandoning a core. Not when we have even more confirmation now that the PbC is going to make it. I mean the potential here is starting to go geometric.
    16 May 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've given up trying to figure out what motivates sellers because it just makes me crazy and serves no useful purpose. Take Special Sits, for example, it's a mystery why they sold but I sure am glad they're no longer stockholders. What I want to understand is the expectations of the people who bought all those shares because they're the ones that will set the direction for the future. These concentrators provide one of the best views on that question I could imagine.
    16 May 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    My take, based on all the comments, is essentially opportunity cost vs. anticipated time-frames combined with an apparent lack of "visibility" into progress.

     

    Folks used to evaluating "mature" commercial entities may not be comfortable with "wing and a prayer" evaluation. Hard numbers are hard numbers and lack of them is just that.

     

    That forces one into evaluating "intangible" things. Hard to develop spreadsheets with that stuff - too much "estimating", which is a fine art in and of itself. For many, that's beyond their risk tolerance.

     

    For those folks, exit is the *right* move.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 May 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    HTL, excellent post--but maybe I think that just because I agree! 8^)
    16 May 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering how many of the sellers have stumbled on, or researched their way to the concentrator. If I had been just lurching around in the dark trying to make sense of share price without the cumulative knowledge of this board, I might have sold also.
    16 May 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Investors who buy stock in direct placements by a company (public or private) are a different breed of cat. They typically rely heavily on a broker or financial advisor who specializes in direct placements and they're almost always big enough horses to make a quick Yes or No decision on a $50,000 to $500,000 check with no chance for buyer's remorse. Imagine, for example, a cardiac surgeon who's way better at making a fortune cutting than he is at investing his fortune. He doesn't have the time or the inclination to do the heavy lifting retail investing requires if it's going to be done well.

     

    Their personal due diligence is typically nowhere near as intensive as individuals who are serious about seeking alpha in the retail market. They don't climb a wall of worry and accumulate a position over time. Instead, they leap the wall and build a big position in a single bound. They also tend to listen to the advisors who got them into a deal when it comes time to head for the exit.

     

    Over the years I've spent a lot of time dealing with both types of investors, and frankly I admire them both because the markets couldn't function without them. That being said, I never forget the differences in what they're trying to accomplish.
    16 May 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    OT, but has anyone been noticing the outright carnage in XIDE? I swear TG must have an Exide CEO voodoo doll back in his office or something. And I bet that little bugger looks like a saguaro cactus right about now...
    16 May 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    XIDE hasn't been this low since the Spring of 2009 when everybody was disgusted with everything. Since they have earnings coming up next month, the June $2.50 call is looking pretty juicy at $0.55, although the real lottery ticket play would be the $5.00 call at $0.05.
    16 May 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Yes, very difficult right now. By more AXPW or by more XIDE.
    Exide has a forward P/E of 5, and should be able to improve profitability without too much trouble.
    16 May 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    That would be a very binary play on the 08 June release, no? Basically that one shot on goal? I'm waiting for the December 5's to show themselves. I'm thinking they'll provide a greater number of chances for something good to happen...
    16 May 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Another one that merits some attention is ACPW. They've taken a huge beat down over the last year and the chart is starting to look pretty healthy. While it may sound almost heretical coming from me, a little diversification is never a bad thing.
    16 May 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    ACPW
    Forward p/e = 22
    Price/sales = 1,1
    Sales growth 2012 to 2013 = 20%
    Then I prefer the potential in AXPW and XIDE (and KNDI)
    16 May 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (375) | Send Message
     
    very new here, but i do have skin in this game, and a few others. im investing, not trading. i'd prefer linear progress. its not sexy, but the type of progress and internal controls which avoid messy battery recalls or accounting errors at overseas subsidies. avoiding those infamous "iceberg, right ahead " moments makes for a happy shareholder.
    its a brilliant idea here. hopefully the company executes as well. what was the Kia product thats features a version of stop/start? its test drive time. success to us all in this venture...
    16 May 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Welcome rhyse12, Kia Rio and perhaps even the Soul. Ford will be taking orders on the Fusion next month...
    16 May 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    I noticed earlier today that the number of followers fell from 108 to 107. Then shortly after it increased to 108 again. So we lost one and gained one today.
    16 May 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I remember conversation about that from the past when I read but hadn't yet joined SA. There, I just got it from 110 to 111. Thanks for the reminder Poul!
    16 May 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Number of Concentrator Followers:

     

    Poul posted on April 4.
    "Have you noticed the number of followers of the APH has jumped from 68 a few days ago to now 74.
    It took weeks to grow from 67 to 68. (If my memory serves me well)..."

     

    28 April - 92 followers,
    14 May - about 105 (as I remember)
    16 May - 113

     

    I also went back through concentrator 100 and 101 and found about 45 different posters.
    16 May 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Never even noticed that button - just hit follow
    16 May 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    For the new folks: If you "Follow" someone on SA, the site will update you via your "Feed" (you get to this by hitting your own name on the brown menu bar at the top of the page and then click "Feed") as to what that person is doing. Any new articles, blogs, etc. will be listed.

     

    For instance, if you elect to Follow John Petersen, its a good way to see his library of articles, and be notified of any new pieces he publishes to the site.

     

    Also, note that these instablogs must be closed out at some point (the site resources start to strain, and error messages and delays begin), where the author will usually splice in a link and announcement to the new "Concentrator". If you get lost, the Follow links will help you find where the action is.

     

    Welcome to SA!
    16 May 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks tripleblack. You know engineers. Never read the instructions. Better to play with it until you figure it out or break it.
    16 May 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    JP: Question. Yesterday I received Axion's Notice Of The Annual Meeting Of The Stockholders (2 copies; one from the brokerage account, and one from my gamer account).

     

    With each, came a ballot. Am I legally allowed to vote twice?

     

    ####

     

    Congrats, Poul! And to all others who've made purchase today and yesterday. If you can stow away those shares in the sock drawer for one year, by this time next year, we'll be through what I perceive is the only thing that "may" keep prices down -- another round of fundraising, which looks like it "may" happen this Q4. Caveats aside, after that, and when the newest round of flippers are done flippin', I can't figure what would keep share prices at these bargain basement levels.

     

    I expect many exciting announcements between now and a year from now. Though TG seemed more guarded in both tone of voice and in his unwillingness to divulge forward guidance during this CC than ones before, I can still hear his voice brimming with excitement at the end, when he said, "Buckle your seatbelts."

     

    Congrats, again!

     

    16 May 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Each account goes through a different brokerage firm and flows back up to CEDE & Co., which is the street name holder for all brokerage account shares. If you don't vote each of your accounts, some of your shares will go uncounted.

     

    Actually I think the quote was "We're buckling our seat belts, it's full speed ahead."
    16 May 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    John: Thanks. Last year I think I only voted my brokerage shares. Basically, I can't imagine anyone voting no to either issues.

     

    Scanning the documents now. Amazing how many questions we've all asked over the past months, of which answers can be found in this document.

     

    For instance, it looks like 2021 is a year a bunch of patents will expire. Also, I guess I had forgotten that the Clover Lane facility was leased, not fully owned, for $16,700/mo. With additional space leased last year, the monthly expenditure is now $17,200/mo.

     

    The lease is fixed through 2013, with two additonal 5 year renewal options.

     

    Hoping someday we buy the Clover Lane facility, too.
    16 May 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Don't think of it as counting twice. Each share gets a vote in each of the items that is being voted on. So your voting power is aligned with the number of shares you own.

     

    There are exceptions to these rules like non voting shares and super shares. Super shares carry extra weigh depending on how they were issued.
    16 May 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: Thanks. I get so many of these voting forms I usually just toss them, because I own such an insignificant percentage of any company.

     

    Axion's a little different. Thanks for evincing. I had never spent much time thinking about it before, because before last year I had never before owned a lot (for me) of Axion.
    16 May 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Axion Investor Presentation. Still dated 2011 and doesn’t include the NS order, but it looks like there might be some updated information (for me at least).

     

    It contains charts showing 26 degree and -10 degree celcius (79 and 14 fahrenheit) performance for AGM vs. PbC (page 19-20). If I read it right, AGM is essentially useless at -10 C (the chart is somewhat confusing since the temperature was ratcheted down over time). Is this chart new?

     

    On hybrid vehicle commercialization (p. 21) it states, “OEM vehicle testing of PbC battery with optimized hybrid vehicle system architecture began in 2011.” Nothing on fleet testing on that page.

     

    Question for the engineers about the temperature issue. While the presentation doesn't have high temperature performance for AGM and PbC, the Kia discussion a few days ago indicated that is also a concern. Now, if high or low temperature were the issue, I would think that could be incorporated into the vehicle design (for cold, put the battery near the engine, for hot, place the battery away from the engine near the airflow from the grill) but for both? Put the battery in the passenger compartment?
    16 May 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall62, The best place to put a battery is in the passenger compartment. The reason that this is true is obvious. It will see the reduced temperature extremes during operation. This does not mean that it will not see ambient temperature on the low side and ambient or higher on the high side when the vehicle sits for extended periods but during operation the extremes will not be as sever. The reason the engine compartment is bad, as you've eluded to, is because of the heat generated by the ICE (not the best acronym given the point). The next best thing to the passenger compartment is the trunk.

     

    In the case of putting the battery in the two enclosed places mentioned it should be noted that they need to be vented to the outside as they will produce volatile gases if they are over charged. Also the other drawback is electrical wire length. Not cheap because long lengths of heavy gauge wire are expensive.

     

    I do know that AGM is more sensitive than flooded in the case of high temperature because the matting in the cells that is wet with the electrolyte can dry out. These will more often be placed in the locations mentioned.

     

    I'm unfortunately not able to compare AGM to PBC for high temperature performance. They share similar construction architecture but I'm sure there are some differences in how they perform at higher levels. Hopefully someone recalls a chart I've missed or forgotten in this area.

     

    The manufacturers currently accommodate some of the poor characteristics of the various batteries for SS by disabling the function.
    16 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's my understanding that the PbC is better at high temperatures than straight AGM design because there's so much porosity in the carbon electrode that the battery takes a bigger electrolyte load. The carbon is also very efficient at catalyzing the recombination of any electrolyte that does break down into hydrogen and oxygen. Beyond those generalities, however, I can't add much in the way of detail.
    16 May 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    We need a little KT sauce on this question! ;)
    16 May 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Guys, I seem to recall Kirk giving guidance in this area and if I recall correctly not with a lot of why's. I'm pretty sure it was in fact better but magnitude was not part of the answer. I don't want to speak for him as it would be inappropriate, so I'll leave it at that.

     

    Wish he'd stop by here again on occasion. One of a few left on brand x when I'd finally decided I was done ingesting reams of troll poop.
    16 May 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I have the feeling that the train of AXIONISTAS doing today with most of its full quota.
    16 May 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I think selling is a function of your risk tolerance. For me my risk tolerance is high. I sold none of my shares and I am waiting for the price to "settle" before I buy more shares.

     

    For my mother who is 93 and a widow with small financial resources and not a lot of time for a return the window closed when my gut told me the 1st quarter CC would probably result in a significant down draft. Having pulled her out of a $7500 hole once with AXPW without a loss I was unwilling to let her ride the price down. Consequently I sold most of her shares before the CC. The remaining 20% of her shares were sold as soon as the bell opened the day of the CC after seeing the revenue numbers.

     

    Buying and selling does not indicate a lack of understanding of the opportunity - it may simply not be the right stock for an individual's circumstances, investment goals and risk tolerance. When there is a substantial price decline you have to know if you can afford the loss if the stock doesn't recover within your investment window, or if it never recovers at all.

     

    At a certain point some people say "here be dragons" and get the hell out of Dodge.
    16 May 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I have to agree with DRich. I know the burden of responsibility you carry when it comes to protecting your Mom's limited resources and think you the reasonable conservative thing.
    16 May 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz:
    I respect your opinion and I understand.
    Have a good night.
    16 May 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Carlos. DRich is a good friend of mine and knew who's shares I was selling yesterday. Hence his remark yesterday of "Good move" or words to that effect.
    16 May 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Just another humble and sincere thanks to Maya for starting this blog. I also offer my thanks to the many others who contribute so much useful information of all sorts including battery design and technical information, stock and company information, market trading information, legal information and competitor updates, to name just a few of the ways so many here help one another better understand what we are about.
    16 May 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rick.

     

    Maybe some day in the distant future, when I'm long dead and gone, and Axion spikes 85 cents, giving shareholders a 3% day gain, someone young, but now old, like jakurtz, will offer thanks to someone named Maya.

     

    A new blood Axionista will then write, "Who in tarnation is Maya? How is Maya Angelou involved with our battery stock?"
    17 May 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking the other day that I will kick the bucket like Jimmy Durante in "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World" and my dying words will be "The Axion stock certificates are in the attic". Nobody understands what I mean by this. I was perceived around the neighborhood to be somewhat eccentric, always babbling on about PowerCubes, regenerative braking and other strange things and this last statement was just kind of typical of crazy old Metro. All is quickly forgotten.

     

    Many years later my great-grandchildren will be going through some dusty papers in the attic and find the stock certificates and wonder what ever happened to this company that no one has ever heard of. When they research the company they find that it was renamed to what is then the omnipresent UltramegaCorp. It will have just surpassed MicroApple in market value.
    17 May 2012, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    My fate is now inextricably tied up with that of Axion's. For if it fails and falls into the fires of doom, I will be cursed and scorned for all the rest of my days, to wander in endless confusion, and at last perish in utter despair and ignomy. But if Axion shall, before ere long, triumph upon the field, and so take its rightful place high among the righteous and the strong, then I too will be raised up and exalted, to enjoy a new rebirth of freedom and a new richness of spirit, and each day thereafter will be as a golden feast unto my heart...

     

    And all my future descendants will scarcely be able to forget the esteemed word of "Axion" ...because each will share it as their middle name. ;)
    17 May 2012, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    481086,
    In the 9th inning of the 1985 World Series between the Royals and Cardinals, the Royals were trailing by a run and down in the series 3-2. The Royals already had two outs and it looked dire. I swore I would name my first born Dane, if Dane Iorg managed a hit. He did, the Royals won the series and my first born wasn't named Dane, nor Dana. Funny how wives can put the kibosh on those long ago made vows. You can look at the Royals record now as a curse for me not living up to my promise.
    17 May 2012, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I was watching that game in a Las Vegas bar while on vacation. I had lost my days gambling stash earlier. It so happened that there were several Royal fans in the bar. I was the lone Cardinal fan. Being me, I was whooping it up and dishing out comments ( liquor was involved).

     

    When that game ended I had to buy a very large round of drinks just to show that Cardinal fans weren't really as big of jerks as I had shown them to be.
    Thanks for the reminder.
    17 May 2012, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Go Cards, lol ...
    17 May 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    As of this sad date, I'm not married. But when that happy day comes around, I'll be able to put it in a pre-nup. ;)
    17 May 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    and the safe at first in the ninth inning was probably the worst call to go in my favor that I've ever seen.
    17 May 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Please, I beg you, stop reminding me. I cannot afford more therapy until Axion goes up.
    17 May 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    Whew. I don't often get the chance to check in and try to read the posts I have missed. What a wild couple days. I must say I am quite suprised at the sell-off after the CC. I guess everyone has different expectations and time frames, but I see nothing negative and only positives in the 10Q and call. I bought some shares in my kids' IRA's last week and may add some more at these prices.

     

    Also want add another "thank you" to all who have helped me understand the company better. After 3 years as a shareholder it's nice to be getting near the end of the tunnel.
    16 May 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    "After 3 years as a shareholder it's nice to be getting near the end of the tunnel. "

     

    I first purchased in 2009. It seems almost impossible now. Three years. I am still feeling that it could take one more year to reach recognition in the investment world. Part of that is acceptance of the PbC and part is the World economy. In any case I am more confident today than when I originaly purchased. I have to admit that I was more confident at $2.70 per share when Exide was our dance partner. But that lasted as long as a one night stand with a street hooker.

     

    But the Concentrators have been a source of strengh of information as I have averaged down buying the falling knife.
    16 May 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    AllenCaron did a little blurb on the energy storage sector. Axion mentioned but nothing special other than that Green beast.

     

    http://bit.ly/KucnhT
    16 May 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Interesting comments from the last poster in this railroad form.

     

    BTW, One of the posters has "Next stop Willoughby" under his post as an attachment. One ata boy for the first one to remembers where it's from. No Googlein!

     

    I think we will be leaving there soon.

     

    http://bit.ly/JtOzJX
    16 May 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    "A peaceful, restful, restful place where a man can slow down to a walk" -Twilight Zone Let's not get crazy and jump off the train.
    16 May 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, At some point we may be blessed with ending all the high energy activity trying to find clues that attempt to correlate success or failure with penny moves. A more restful place indeed.

     

    All aboard!

     

    Until then we watch, share, learn, adjust and repeat. "Next stop Willoughby" .

     

    I think you used a search engine. If not you have a memory like a trap. (Does anyone use that expression outside of the area I'm from?)
    17 May 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    What I would like to know is how many people found this blog via using a search engine.
    17 May 2012, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    FOR ALL AXIONISTAS

     

    I have written an article concerning the risks of owning a microcap stock like and specifically AXPW. Although we dont need to placate the trolls that inhabit our space from time to time I felt we never had a full discussion of risk of ownership.

     

    If the subject of risks don't excite you then please do not read and comment.
    http://bit.ly/J09nWy
    16 May 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Nice article Futurist. Smart Axionistas should go take a gander and comment.
    17 May 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Very nice piece Futurist - very nice indeed.
    17 May 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    SA seems to be having some bugs today as my alert for new posts flashes orange, but won't allow me to click on it.
    17 May 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    I have the same problem today.
    17 May 2012, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Same problem here.
    Never had the issue before. Cleared old history and all the easy stuff. Just SA being SA.
    I can't imagine running a site like this with all the tech glitches that can occur on so many different browsers and hardware configurations.
    17 May 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Metro, if you click on the small notch at the very end of the brown bar a drop down menu appears and you can then click on "My Feed" or "InBox."
    17 May 2012, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    And then look under: "TRACKING & NOTIFICATIONS"
    17 May 2012, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,
    Thanks for giving me an alternative way to get there. BTW, I cringed and then laughed at the the way the moderator pronounced your surname during the CC.
    17 May 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    YW. Yes as I said then -- I've been called worse!
    17 May 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): I think Quercus might have been in yesterday. Full thoughts on my intra-day chart instablog.

     

    http://bit.ly/LVYU07

     

    Unusual pre-market sales of 45K. FINRA-reported daily short sales was 41.62%. Recall that volume and short sales from FINRA do *not* include out-of-hours trades.

     

    Including 45K in pre-market trades in both total volume and short sales gives 616,819 and 283,018 respectively. This would put the short sales percentage at ~45.9%

     

    I suspected 58K from Quercus, but forgot to allow that there might be other folks selling when I did the trial sums to get around a 10% value. I'm thinking nearer 50K, *if* they were here.

     

    Other than that, some stats from yesterday.

     

    75 trades, average trade size 8,224 (much larger than typical) and even backing out the 100K trade would leave us with 6,984 - still very large.

     

    Min. Pr: 0.3601, Max Pr: 0.4100, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3844
    Buy:Sell 1:1.12.

     

    We might get lucky as $0.37 has been a steady support in the past and yesterday when we penetrated that it came right back into that range. Further, the long consolidation we've been in has essentially ranged from $0.37 to ~$0.46. I wouldn't be surprised to see another long crawl along this "bottom" followed by an eventual rise towards the upper end. But not quickly.

     

    Looking at the chart, we can imagine a binary switch: two ranges $0.37-$0.41ish and $0.42-$0.46.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I haven't seen another form filed by Quercus, and thought they were through selling for the quarter - unless they file again to sell a subsequent circa 200,000 shares.

     

    My speculation, IMHO, and I know I'm opening myself up here, is that it is the B people, a hypothesis generated by other posters. It just seems to be an entity with a lot of shares. It could be someone else, but just kinda fits together for me. If it is the B people, and Poul, amongst others, keeps the volume levels flowing, we can subtract them from the equation fairly quickly - at least by Axion standards. Then we only have to worry about when Poul begins selling.
    17 May 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Quercus has already sold all the shares specified in their last Form 144 and unless they file an amendment, they're out of the market until mid-June. In theory they could file a Form 144A and free up some additional shares for immediate sale, but it would be out of character for them to do so.
    17 May 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    As to the form, the same thought crossed my mind. But I guess they could be late?

     

    As to "the quarter", this one or last one?

     

    As to the "B" folks, I assume "flippers"? IIRC, those folks' shares went right to the brokers and wouldn't cause short sales by the market makers? So that leaves shares from folks holding shares at brokers that are not allied with market-makers as a source for short sales.

     

    Anyway, all guessing.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Oh, I guess flipper shares could be at brokers that don't have an affiliated market-maker - those could result in short sales by market-makers too.
    17 May 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    B would be Blackrock. Just my guess, but who knows. If they were to sell 1,500,000 shares this quarter, I would think they would be about out, or maybe they are going to exit à la Special Sits. To drive price back down to this level, selling has to be persistent. The question then becomes where is demand going to come from in the very short run? Sorry to be all gloomy. Guess it is the rain here.
    17 May 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): My gold mine?

     

    At 9:47 with TSLAtrading range at $28.60-$28.75, I went long 10 6/19 contracts @ $29 strike for $1.75 (~$1.768 w/friction), figuring support around this area. Went as low as $28.24 and I could've gotten them $0.07 cheaper if I was lucky (delta was ~45% then).

     

    Reasons: potential support area leading to a bounce, 4 consecutive big down days should lead to reversion to a mean around $28.92 at least, June the Model S should be out, volume on down moves started to weaken.

     

    My break even is ~$1.79, currently bid/ask $1.90/$2.10 with TSLA trading $29.25 - hitting a resistance from a falling trend line.

     

    How long to let it run during an options expiration week (high volatility). In normal weeks, at least 2 days up could be expected. But with a lot of options positions being adjusted (closed, rolled, opened) and market-makers adjust their underlying positions accordingly, can't be sure how it might play out.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    A new document (April 2012) out with a lot of vehicle and laboratory testing data on both the UltraBattery and Exide's carbon-additive orbital battery used in the ALABC project:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/JL1N4a

     

    A lot of important data there, with a helpful summary at the start, pp. ii-iv. It's worth reading the whole document, but as a quick take-away:

     

    1. "In summary, the results to date suggest that both the ALABC high-carbon North Star Battery Co. and Exide technologies require further development before they are ready for use in HEVs. However, inconsistencies in cell manufacture may have contributed toward the reliability issues encountered in this study" (p. 39 [51]).

     

    So, we really don't need to worry about the carbon-additive batteries, at least not for heavy hybridization, at least not for now. Not up to snuff. 
    Note that this has to be a public embarrassment for Exide, and if their in-house product is not good enough, they would seem to have no choice but to turn to Axion. Otherwise, they cede the field to East Penn. This is potentially huge for Axion.

     

    2. "the life-cycle data under simulated HEV conditions suggest that the East Penn UltraBattery packs are capable of lasting the design life of modern HEVs. However, the fuel consumption of an UltraBattery-powered HEV may be higher than an equivalent NiMH vehicle at low temperatures and toward the end of vehicle life as a result of a reduction in charge acceptance of the UltraBattery. (Note that at present the extent of any increase in fuel consumption is not known.)" (p. 40 [52]).

     

    They seem to think that UltraBattery generally did well in the testing, but the temperature problem may really be an issue. It is discussed further in pp. 19-22 [31-34], where the authors note that significant reduction in charge acceptance begins already at 10 degrees C or 50 degrees F (!). 
    "In summary, decreasing the battery operating temperature drops both available power and charge acceptance. While the former is not expected to have a large effect on vehicle performance, the latter, with its associated increase in engine-run time, could increase fuel usage significantly" (p. 20 [32]).

     

    Compare this, of course, with Axion's data on the PbC's excellent performance at -10 degrees C in their Investor Presentation, p. 20.
    http://bit.ly/Hfv7fu

     

    3. "It also was planned to evaluate a battery pack from Axion Power (with a proprietary negative plate) under SHCHEVP. Unfortunately, production of this battery was cancelled and a carbon lead-acid technology from Exide was tested in its place" (p. 35 [47]).

     

    I remember JP saying that the ALABC wished to use the PbC for their recent LC Super Hybrid project, but Axion declined, and so the ALABC went with Exide. Obviously, something similar happened with this project as well, perhaps simply as a consequence of Axion not being involved in the LC Super Hybrid project (the testing here involved the ALABC). I have to say that I am disappointed that the PbC did not go through this testing, which would have allowed for a direct, head-to-head testing against the UltraBattery in a very public arena. I trust management, and I believe they had good reasons. But I still wish this testing could have happened: the UltraBattery is getting a *lot* of publicity and high-profile testing/demonstrations, the PbC, not as much. (Still, there was an indirect benefit from not participating: it meant that Exide's carbon-additive was tested and was publicly shown to be inadequate.)
    17 May 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: You never cease to amaze!

     

    Great links.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I noticed they used a 12v ultrabattery. Could it be that the car being used in the study was equipped to handle a 12v battery and Axion knew their 12v was not ready for this application? It would go back to the biggest weakness of the PbC -- it has to be manufacturer specific.

     

    In this case I understand why Axion didn't participate and all they can do is continue working on their battery with OEM's that design their equipment around the 16v PbC that is power and energy specific to that application.

     

    Does that sound right?

     

    Thanks for the summary Lafferty, excellent find.
    17 May 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Lafferty ... Thanks for the link. It will take some time to wade through this. To your point No. 3, I would suspect that Axion was held back by BMW (and others) to keep many dollars of research from spilling into the public arena. The UltraBattery may be getting a lot of PR exposure because;
    1) It is "good" enough in many aspects
    2) Either doesn't have or isn't as far along with being tested by a major auto OEM.
    17 May 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz, DRich, those both seem like real possibilities to me, thanks. I'm still partial to the idea that the determining factor was Axion declining the ALABC LC Super Hybrid project. The testing reported here was funded in part by the ALABC, so once Axion declined on their main project, it makes sense that they wanted to gather more data on the Exide battery that they were going to have to use. As for why Axion declined the LC Super Hybrid project, well, if I understood JP correctly, it was because their hands were already full with projects they saw as more promising. I took that as bullish.
    17 May 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The voltage of a particular battery is just barely interesting when your concern is the behavior of a string at a given state of charge. If you need ten 12-Volt Ultrabatteries to deliver the required voltage between a 50% and 60% SOC, you might need a ten 16-volt PbCs, but that's all a matter of system design. As it happens, a 16-volt PbC is in the ideal voltage range for stop-start when operating at an 80% SOC. There's no magic in building a 12-volt battery other than convention. They can just as easily be built for any integral multiple of 2-volts by simply changing the number of cells in a case.
    17 May 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Nice post, Lafferty. I think TG said a couple of times in the last CC, something like, "if the cathode has lead, the battery's gonna have sulfation problems [or was it charge acceptance problems or both?]." Do we know the extent of the problem? Could it be that the UB's sulfation problem is not enough to significantly hinder s/s performance, but that other UB characteristics do--like the temperature one you mentioned? Are the problems related? Sorry, I'm not an engineer.
    17 May 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    As nice as the extra publicity of the Super-Hybrid would be, I think Axion made the right call in focusing on BMW.

     

    The Super-Hybrid is a concept car whose production must be several years into the future, if at all.

     

    I'm pretty sure BMW is evaluating for a car that is already in production and is thinking in terms of the next 2 years at the latest.

     

    There is much more money for Axion in conventional modes of transport than there is in show-ponies like the Super Hybrid.

     

    D
    17 May 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor: I'm not an engineer either, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. Been trying to learn as much as I can for due diligence, that's all. Sulfation problems will lead to charge acceptance problems. I'm still trying to work on understanding the real-world implications of whatever charge acceptance problems the UB might eventually develop. It might well be 'good-enough' tech. But note that even the authors of the present study say they don't know the real-world consequences (fuel consumption increase) of the charge acceptance problems that develop (p. 40). And so many different studies, so many different test criteria....
    17 May 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    When the LC Super Hybrid releases their 48v version we could get a nice surprise. Further, when higher voltages extend down to the micro-hybrids the game changes as few batteries can compete with the PbC when placed in series to operate at a higher voltage with a broad operating range (Loco, PC, 48vSS)...
    17 May 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    LOOMING LEAD SHORTAGE

     

    The other day Bloomberg reported that global lead supplies would fall short of demand by 154,000 metric tons in 2013. Over the long term there are no metal reserve issues, but over the short term there will almost certainly be supply constraints.

     

    http://bloom.bg/JL7zTt

     

    It's the kind of story that warms the cockles of my heart since the PbC uses about 30% less lead per battery than its AGM counterparts.
    17 May 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3120) | Send Message
     
    JP, I am not sure I understand the "less lead" comment. While a given PbC battery has less lead, it also has less energy, about half IIRC. This is also reflected in the energy density number, where a PbC is about half of a flooded Pb battery. You often state that power is primary for s/s application, but sufficient energy is always needed for success, e.g. the air conditioner has to run for three minutes, not run out of energy after just one minute (or whatever the specs are).

     

    I don't think the PbC is at a significant disadvantage; I just don't see how a Pb shortage is beneficial to Axion. It still needs tons of Pb to make a locomotive, and higher Pb prices just narrow the spread between Pb and Li chemistries. PbC primary advantage over the most appropriate Li chemistries is substantially lower costs (as well as a long industrial history).
    17 May 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    An automotive battery uses an insignificant fraction of its total energy in day to day use. Even in stop-start, the drain is rarely more than a couple percent of total energy. As long as you have adequate power and high dynamic charge acceptance, total energy is irrelevant.

     

    A 50 Amp hour 12-volt battery has 600 watt-hours or 2.16 million watt seconds of total energy. An engine off cycle using the BMW-Ford test protocol is 39,600 watt-seconds.
    17 May 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    From comments above Exide may be under pressure because of negative press in government report, looming lead shortage (their highest cost item in the battery) and warm winter meaning weak sales and expected poor earnings report. The stock has tanked and is $2.31 as I type. Ouch! Does anyone see a reason for a quick recovery in Exide, given these negatives?
    P.S. I know this is an Axion concentrator but Exide is a related stock and lots of followers here have an interest or own stock in Exide so I hope there is no objection to raising this issue in this forum. Thanks
    17 May 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I am so unimpressed with Exide management I will not buy it. They seem to screw up a lot.
    17 May 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It would be an understatement to say that market expectations for Exide's year end report are not aggressive. If there's a surprise in the works I think it's likely to be to the upside rather than the downside, but I've been expecting Exide to surge back for several months now and it just keeps losing ground.
    17 May 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I may be warming up for another purchase.
    17 May 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... I'm long Exide at ~$3.00 and looking to drop that a bit more. Unless you can make the case that Exide is headed for BK, this is a ridiculous price on almost any metric you want to use to compare value. The only one that causes me any angst is the levered free cash flow but that seems to be covered by sales and doesn't seem worth worrying about. I know the company has local NIMBY issues in several locations (Frisco, TX for example) the regulatory agencies keep siding with the company. The company has new manufacturing & recycle capacity.

     

    Except for the fact that I'm not crazy about management (they are really clueless) I can't see much that doesn't point toward higher share prices. My bottom line is I think the business will out perform management.
    17 May 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    that is axpw. not exide.
    17 May 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking both are attractive at these prices but I remember "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". So I may be surprised some more before they start up.

     

    I do feel there is a looming over supply in the battery industry in general, due largely to the build up in lithium manufacturing that will go unused since electric cars are not going to sell nearly enough to justify the battery supply build up. There is bound to be some overlap in the market where the excess lithium supplies being dumped cheap will steal some sales from lead batteries. That, coupled with the other reasons mentioned above may explain some of the protracted pressure on Exide.
    17 May 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Bottom-feeder foundation and reason I watch daily gyrations.

     

    http://read.bi/JyzyGC

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    A hero to all catfish.
    17 May 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Well, now that we're down here at the 35 cent placement price, those flippers can no longer flip for profit.
    17 May 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    The flippers might just say "the party's over, turn out the lights" and then pull as much of their capital out as possible unless it gets really ugly like SS's last year. I'm waiting for the price to settle. To many shark fins in the water for me to leave the beach.
    17 May 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Adding at $.35...

     

    Now lurking at $.31.
    17 May 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    This invertebrate nibbled some more at .36 today.
    17 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Dick Tracy
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Watching and lurking for several weeks. Was waiting for one of the reports or calls to yield news that would follow with a spike. Nothing happened with either call except now it is dropping. Anyone know when their next call wil be? I do not frequent speculative stocks but might take a stab here. I would prefer hearing some good news first.
    17 May 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor..

     

    Correct, so knock out the flippers unless some are just bailing out, I don't have a level 2 so i have no idea how quick and how many trades were traded so quickly...

     

    Thanks
    17 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    anyone have latest bid/ask/volume as I'm 15 min behind. thanks
    17 May 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the "like" on my above post, I guess that was a pity "like", but really looking for latest info. Think I've got it now, but thanks for your empathy. ;)
    17 May 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    bid ask without delay is here:
    http://bit.ly/A87h9f
    17 May 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Poul,
    I liked you. I've used that site, but found some new tools on my very rudimentary brokerage site. Thanks again.
    17 May 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    at 1:17
    Tick/Bid 0.3451
    (Pink Sheets)
    Bid Size 7,000
    Ask 0.36
    (Pink Sheets)
    Ask Size 5,000
    I'm cooking with gas now and answering myself.
    17 May 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Repost from the last APC -- on "new comment" flags and APCs showing up in the notification dropdown (top right):

     

    Maybe I can clear some of this up for you -- based solely on my observations, not on any official Seeking Alpha statements. I've been following via Android, WinXP, Windows 7, and on Chrome, Firefox and (occasionally) Explorer, and I'm pretty sure it's not a hardware or software bug that you're encountering.

     

    1st, the notification of new comments was changed a month ago (or so) to prioritize articles over instablogs. Even if the latest comment on something you're tracking is on an instablog, it'll show real articles first. I unsubscribed from all the articles to get the instablogs to show back up in the drop down list, but you can also get to the instablogs by clicking on "more notifications" and then expanding to see even "more notifications" until you see the instablogs.

     

    2nd, the "new comment" flags ONLY show up if you navigate to the instablog through the new comment notification at the top right of the screen. Whenever I navigate through a SA search or from an email I do not see the "new comment" flags. I believe the flags are triggered by the "&source=tracking_... part of the link and are not automatically generated on every page you load.

     

    This might explain why some people can't see the new comment flags (they're navigating through emailed links or doing a search for the concentrator instead of navigating to the latest tracked instablog). It could also explain why some people don't see tracked instablogs -- they have too many tracked articles that have recently been given priority in the "new comment list" over instablogs.

     

    Then again, it might just be unrelated software issues as you've speculated.
    17 May 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    As replied in #100, this was indeed the problem for me. Thanks to Deamiter, and to everyone else for all the helpful suggestions sent my way...
    17 May 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter and everyone else that contributed comments on how to navigate SA more efficiently.

     

    Thanks much. Helps quite a bit.
    17 May 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    0.34$
    I'm torn.
    http://bit.ly/LfXTng

     

    Have no idea if the text fits, but I like the show so much :-)
    17 May 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Poul: Thanks! You made my lunch break. Very funny stuff.
    17 May 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Poul, Very good stuff and your timing is perfect.
    17 May 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Poul... thank you very much for the clip. It reminded me of the time when John Belushi mimicked Joe Cocker on SNL.
    http://tinyurl.com/3m3...
    17 May 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    Jumpin' Jesus, Natalie is still hot after a decade and a half
    17 May 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Reading Futurist's article - how big of a worry is it for you that Axion's price drops to the point where they can't raise funds in a meaningful way.
    17 May 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Can't speak for John, but for myself, in the short term, I'm not worried. Axion already raised their funds for the year and are good through Q1 of 2013. So the stock bobbing up and down right now doesn't matter unless you need the available cash right now. If Axion hasn't produced more than one sale of PbC batteries by the end of 2012, then they will have problems. For now, the bobbing is just something to look at and hope that a big fish comes along and takes the bait and we start running. :-)
    17 May 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion has enough cash to last through Q1 of next year and unless volume collapses, I don't see any way that the selling pressure can survive the summer. I also have a hard time believing that we'll see six months with no meaningful progress on any business fronts. As long as we don't have some kind of catastrophic failure with the battery, I don't worry about the continued ability to raise cash.

     

    In my experience small companies are like babies in sub-saharan Africa. They rarely die of starvation but frequently die of dysentery. As long as management controls spending and avoids debt, a company can survive almost anything.
    17 May 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Understood, thanks Gents. Good to put it into a frame of mind for me. Really this is the make or break year!
    17 May 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Ta da! (Hmmm, I really do need to find a bit of theme music - "Flight of the Turtles" or "Symphony for Catfish" or something, but anyway...)

     

    The turtle is back!

     

    Blood in the gutters, screaming natives fleeing the market place, the thunder of collapsing dreams echoing down the corridors of the powerful...

     

    Time for action!
    17 May 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    tripleblack, I am sorry for mimicking your turtle theme. For me it has no significance, it was just the first picture in the samples folder on my lap top.

     

    My primary reason for posting this message is to ask if there is a club I need to send dues to or if I should change my make-up?

     

    I prefer "Flight of the Turtles" vs some noodling theme where the line "My dog died" needs to be incorporated into the chorus. No offense Mr. Investor.
    17 May 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Plenty of room for fellow Testudines!

     

    Its a privilege sharing the avatar species with such an expert as yourself. Anyone who could wage battle with the yahooites (jawbone of an ass, etc, springs to mind) can swim in my mud jaccuzi anytime.
    17 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    ... and the Knights of Barron Rothschild spring into action.
    17 May 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    3501/36........Were coming back.....for now...
    17 May 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    OK, with bid at .35 and ask at .36 we will see if we run for awhile in at worst a .34-.36 range or dip towards an unknown bottom below .34.
    17 May 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): If not, Quercus, which I think you all are correct, Block Rock?

     

    Buy:Sell 1:18.20
    VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3554
    Vol 389223
    AvTrSz: 5724

     

    This through 14:31:32.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Trip, bang & All: I'm getting real itchy. Another 25K shares for a mere $8500?

     

    This is torture not to add here. I have had to stifle myself many times from calling my broker. I'm pacing around, all fidgity, watching baby chipmunks skitter about, goldfinches flit about, and I'm about borderline freaking out not adding here.

     

    I'd love to have a Kirlean photograph of my aura right now. I gotta go fetch a double malt, chocolate black raspberry milkshake...just to get away from this computer. Hopefully, there is a long line.

     

    If the price goes down again tomorrow....
    17 May 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    added
    17 May 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking of waiting till tomorrow.
    17 May 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Maya> Yesterday .38 looked good. Today .35 looks good. Wait until you see some kind of consolidation IMHO. A couple pennies up will not matter based on your investment timeframe. Or, try to catch that knife. Only once has it not gone straight through me, and then only for a little while with a buy at .415. Hope for .32 or .31. Entirely possible. Good news is probably going to be a while in coming and as the weeks roll on more people will lose heart, the economy and market might tank, and then the Congress and the Election could be the ice berg in the sea lanes ahead.

     

    To me the only stock price that matters is the price when the Q3 earnings report is due - both before the report and after. In the meantime - meh.
    17 May 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    got my line in the water with the bait sitting at the bottom...
    17 May 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    sounds like good advice bang. I really don't need anymore, feeling pretty stuffed - and not in an Australian way - on shares. But if the price is right......will do some hunter/gatherer action and later celebrate in true hunter/gatherer style with a large fire and........lots of meat and berries I guess, and then get up early and start the whole process again.
    17 May 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Wait, you are the catfish and not the fisherman!!! Don't eat the bottom feeding catfish!! On second thought eat the catfish and then maybe share price will increase.
    17 May 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    the wise old catfish will never take my bait, only the young ones...
    17 May 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Hi JS,
    Any relation?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 May 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Keith Springer - not related.

     

    I'm actually related to no one with the last name Springer. Too many women on that side of the family.
    17 May 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "I'm actually related to no one with the last name Springer. Too many women on that side of the family."

     

    Beautiful! can I use that Jon? (different name of course) that goes for people who might actually may claim you as a relative too right?...
    17 May 2012, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    absolutely
    17 May 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps this is not new to some of you, but I just had a bit of a light-bulb moment. Building off what I posted above about the new test data: I've been tending to get anxious lately about the UltraBattery. Yes, I believe the PbC is best, while the the UltraBattery is perhaps 'good-enough.' But good-enough tech can push out better tech, if offered at a better price point, by a larger company, etc.

     

    What I've realized, though, is this: even *if* the UB is good enough, more than good enough, for the most demanding apps, such as heavy auto hybridization, there should still be room for Axion at the table, given East Penn's *exclusive* rights to the UB in North America. Why? Because either other battery companies such as Exide, JCI, etc. just stand by and watch as East Penn (rights in USA, Canada, Mexico) and Furukawa (rights in Japan, Thailand) dominate the market for the more demanding lead-acid battery apps, or they deal with Axion. Which is more likely?

     

    The key is the now re-confirmed fact that the carbon-additive batteries that constitute the only other alternative to the PbC (in the field of lead-acid) are not up to the task of the most demanding apps.

     

    One more thing: what about the UB and Europe? Am I right that currently *no one* has the rights (from CSIRO) to sell the UB in Europe? If so, that's very interesting. Of course, if another battery company does acquire the rights to the UB in Europe, it could necessitate some small revision to the thesis I've just offered, but I think it would still basically hold.

     

    Finally, wouldn't there be sole source concerns about the UB if CSIRO is inking exclusive deals in different regions? North American OEMs would have only East Penn to rely upon, etc.
    17 May 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I too did some research on the UB, and tried to compare it with the PbC using differing data sets where both were compared with lead acid batteries. I too was worried about the same "just good enough" proposition. After looking at the data sets I felt somewhat better. Additionally, I asked TG specifically during the CC about the UB and his answer alleviated my concerns also. I think the bit of missing information about the UB is charge acceptance. My feeling is that it doesn't have the charge acceptance of the PbC, and additionally, as TG pointed out, it does have lead on the negative electrode and suffers from sulferization and degradation in performance. Although there is probably room for both with stop/start, I feel like I'm betting on the right horse for stop/start application, and this is the market Axion is targeting. Laffferty, if interested in the chart I put together I would be happy to PM you with it.
    17 May 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >metro ... The UB is a really good technology. It has the drawback of being complicated to fab and degraded performance at the extremes, but still miles ahead of CP-AGM. There is not any big reason to fear it for the simple reason that production can not meet demand. Same problem Axion will have until it executes the model. For several years "not quite" & "good enough" will dominate the S/S-mild hybrid market from the ability to produce standpoint. The winner will be announced in 2018-2020 timeframe. Until then all comers will make a living.
    17 May 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Thanks for your reply. As JP points out, it is good, better, and better yet and each have different applications. No silver bullet for all applications. I just like the niche, and hoping it is a rather large niche, that Axion is striving to carve out with start/stop.
    17 May 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >metro ... It's a multi-faceted niche. Not necessarily large on any one side.
    17 May 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts:
    SS is an small niche, Grid Storage is a bigger niche ($113.5B).
    AXION PbC and the power cube for me works better in Grid Storage.
    And do not forget locomotives is a niche like SS and the mobil Power Cube works very well.
    Nothing is lost and much is gained
    Have a godd night.
    17 May 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, thanks for finding ans sharing the URL for the ABALC report on Ultrabattery performance. Thus far, I have read only the excerpts you shared in your initial post on the report, scanned two or three pages of charts in the report itself, and read a few paragraphs of report conclusions. Tentative reaction to that material is 1) it applies primarily to transportation applications and 2) showing reduced charge acceptance from 50 degrees F means mileage improvement (CO2 reduction) potential of S/S systems using the Ultrabattery is really quite limited unless coupled with an environmental control system that maintains the operating temperature of the battery.

     

    My initial reaction? In regard to positive significance for Axion Power and PbC markets, the report might rank second only to the NS purchase order.

     

    In the Q1 CC, TG noted repeatedly that 1) lead in the negative electrode means deteriorating charge acceptance and 2) the PbC operates well in both lower and higher temperatures than other LA batteries. Me thinks he was aware of the substance of the ABALC report.
    17 May 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I've been working on a similar project and would love to see what you've put together. I'll PM you.
    17 May 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Keep in mind too that for virtually all military applications, the wider the acceptable temperature range for operation, the better..
    17 May 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I don't think SS is necessarily a small niche... tens of millions of vehicles sold every year worldwide. A cost-effective SS/MH architecture could well proliferate into the majority of those over the next few years.
    17 May 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The last number I saw was 39 million micro hybrids a year by 2017. With a $250 battery content per vehicle, each one percent market share represents $100 million in annual revenue. It doesn't take much market share to build a very successful company, particularly if you've got some railroad and stationary applications layered on top.
    17 May 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    In this case I would rather be a 99 percenter than a 1 percenter, but I'll settle for less.
    17 May 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty,
    "One more thing: what about the UB and Europe? Am I right that currently *no one* has the rights (from CSIRO) to sell the UB in Europe? If so, that's very interesting. Of course, if another battery company does acquire the rights to the UB in Europe, it could necessitate some small revision to the thesis I've just offered, but I think it would still basically hold."
    It's been awhile, but I thought there were two companies with the rights to sell the UB. East Penn in the US and someone else for Asia and maybe Europe...but don't hold me to it.
    17 May 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, yes, I mentioned East Penn for North America and Furukawa for Japan and Thailand. But I don't think Furukawa has Europe, not according to CSIRO, anyways:
    For example, "The exclusive sub-license agreement will see the UltraBattery distributed by East Penn to the automotive and motive power sector throughout North America, Mexico and Canada while Furukawa Battery Company will release the technology in Japan and Thailand."
    http://bit.ly/KwROkV
    17 May 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    481086:

     

    I meant: Small when compared with the size of Grid Storage.

     

    Have a good night.
    17 May 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, agreed. Though when both are fully fleshed out, I kinda doubt either will be described as "small" ;) And a great night to you as well...
    17 May 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've not seen anything that points to a European licensee for the UB, so at this point I have to assume there isn't one.
    18 May 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Concentrator this way ------>
    Check out the link to Futurist's excellent article and following discussion on the risks of owning Axion -- frequent heartburn comes to mind.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 May 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
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