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  • Axion Power Concentrator 103: May 19, 2012: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012 207 comments
    May 19, 2012 12:53 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012

    Risks of Owning Axion - A Discussion: by Futurist

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated May 19th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Concentrator Comments:

    (updated May 19th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (207)
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  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Not knowing anything about oil rigs or diesel gen sets I got curious about the gen sets and a Google search led me to Caterpillar's online product listings for oil field use here: http://bit.ly/JrAQV7

     

    I was looking at their size and the gen sets are roughly 5 feet wide by 12 feet. What my mind was playing with was a trailer combining the Genset and the PbC batteries in one trailer or skid connected together properly. If anyone actually knows what they are talking about versus me what is the potential of this possibility?
    19 May 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I too have been thinking about how the PC would fit in the setup of the drilling rig. Right now the configuration is an 40' container that weighs 81.5k including the chassis(minus the tractor). From what I can tell it will be the biggest/heaviest piece in the group aside from perhaps the rig itself. They have it on a top heavy 3 axle chassis which will be okay for the highway but not so good for a fresh cut shale road. They really need it on a trailer made to move heavy equipment like an RGN or lowboy. Problem is the standard RGN has a 29' well and can not handle the length.

     

    I would like to see them build out in the 20' container that could be stacked vertically when onsite. It could be hauled legally on the highways (currently permitted (maybe)) and brought in with any piece of equipment. Its closer in size to the other pieces and it could be picked and swung without have a special setup for the onsite crane (swing radius/boom angle is short for 81.5k). Besides, it would fit better in a Walmart parking lot <smile>.

     

    I am sure they have all this figured out but as a driver bringing that piece in or a crew member doing the setup, I hate that piece just thinking about it <smile>...
    I suspect the crew will find a colorful name for this beast.
    19 May 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Tim, you brought up something that was worrying me a little. Sadly,, I spent too many years loading trailers, I have also been inside the power cube and it seems to me that the thing is a bit top heavy. It may pass the road specs for weight,,and may even be safe enough to move around, but I didnt even consider the off road effect. It needs to be part of the equation.
    On other subjects, Thanks for the catch on SpecSit. It also boggles my mind, but I get confused easily these days.
    19 May 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    You could deliver the batteries separately but then it would be field tested/certified instead of at the factory and you aren't going to want to assemble/disassemble the batteries every time you move.

     

    However, the 40' PC would be just fine in a fixed location such as a wind or solar farm where the PC and batteries could be assembled and tested one time by the field crew.

     

    Anyway, I am sure all of this has been though through and we will start seeing assemblies that fit different applications. Again, Caterpillar would be a very good partner when it comes to working with GenSets...
    19 May 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Would one of you financial types follow the link below and click on "increased positions" for the current quarter.

     

    http://bit.ly/JeTG1t#

     

    It looks like these folks added a bunch to their AXPW position the first quarter. Perhaps we do know at least one of the investors? I am in unfamiliar territory here and need some education...
    19 May 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I can't offer anything beyond what's shown. But I was curious. Have you been using that site long? Free or paid? Like it? Any comments?

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    That's a lot of added Axion shares if I read that link properly.
    19 May 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Could it be one of the Feb placement investors?
    19 May 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    That is without a doubt the strangest thing I've ever seen. I went to their Form 13HRs at the SEC (http://1.usa.gov/Jf2tQX) and the Axion numbers were as follows:

     

    12-31-10 – 8771930
    3-31-11 – 7491930
    6-30-11 – 4507000
    9-30-11 – 3152246
    12-31-11 – ZERO
    3-31-12 – 3408000

     

    I can't, for the life of me, explain why Special Sits would spend all of 2011 pounding out of their shares only to repurchase 38.8% of their original position early this year. I also can't imagine that Axion would be eager to have them back in without some frank conversations about the future.

     

    I guess I have another data point to track for a while.
    19 May 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    JP: Indeed, really strange. Maybe Special Situations new management went through a special situation "oops!" stage. I simply can't figure any other reason for them doing what they did. Except that I know SS last year was buying Exide, while selling Axion. Maybe the new management finally got around to studying up on the battery sector, and did an about face--and maybe, just maybe, it's because of these Concentrators.

     

    Loving that Axion seems to be increasing shop floor workers.

     

    Both of these points are very promising.
    19 May 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping Special Situations sends a rep to the shareholders conference. If one is there, I will seek him/her out.
    19 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    They also closed out their position in XIDE which IIRC they did the opposite when selling AXPW (and bought XIDE). It appears they have changed their minds?

     

    HTL. I was redirected to this site while poking around Fidelity and have not registered. Remember, I am not a trader or really an investor in the sense you guys use these terms. I found AXPW while looking for an UC for my project and have been hooked ever since...
    19 May 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Tax loss selling with an eye to re-up on the private placement?
    19 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Tim:
    Sorry, that means IIRC.
    Thanks again.
    Have a good week end.
    19 May 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    I think most of their funds are offshore, so there's no particular benefit in tax loss selling. I don't take it as good or bad news, but it sure is interesting.
    19 May 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    reduced ACPW...interesting holdings...CEVA, MIPS, ZIOP, TIVO, YMI
    19 May 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Did I booger that Carlos? was supposed to mean "If I Remember Correctly". That's why I don't try those short cuts <smile>
    19 May 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Tim, thanks for the link. In terms of energy storage, their now almost 40% ownership of PLUG is interesting, as is the fact the position represents less than 2% of their portfolio. I have followed Plug as sort of a barometer between Tesla and Axion. Tesla and Plug both have products aimed at a certain niche. They have sold product at market for that niche, but at a loss. Both are counting on volume sales and improved technology to eventually turn a profit. Axion just needs to ramp sales with existing tech and as a bonus is adding niches. Plug & Axion both sell an energy storage device that goes into a vehicle, while Tesla sells the end product, the car. Plug and Axion are dealing with commercial customers who are lions in their fields, while Tesla is counting on sales to private, albeit well-off, individuals. Kudos to Tesla for gaining stock price while Plug & Axion faltered under the same market conditions. Maybe all three will end up in the money, but if this were the Preakness; my bets are: Axion to win, Plug to show, Tesla DNF.
    19 May 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim!

     

    My tin-foil hat affects all that I do - leery of signing up for anything that's not an absolute necessity.

     

    Afraid of e-mails getting passed around and spam-floods resulting.

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Been crunching this through the mental meat grinder for the past couple of hours, while watching, I'll Have Another, romp the Preakness:

     

    If I had to make a knife-to-neck choice as to whether Special Situations moving back in is a good or bad development, I would have to choose good.

     

    We've been whacked by so many whales, to have a previous whale back in, to me, means that another 3.4M shares have moved from weak hands to strong hands (and hopefully not jittery ones).

     

    Though us Axionistas own likely an unprecedented number of shares as a cyber gang of investors in a microcap, I still couldn't jive with how many shares the Axionistas were buying, as opposed to the volumes being sold.

     

    After all, I am only aware of two of us that own north of a million shares, and one of them hasn't been buying very many shares over the past year, plus, and the other "represents" just over a million shares.

     

    I still can't figure for the life of me who is doing all this selling, but it's a nice development that SS has moved back in. Special Situations were two words not well received around the Axion camp at the PowerCube unveiling. I wonder how well they are received now.
    19 May 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    I have to agree Maya, it might be good. Although, at first I really had to scratch my head.

     

    We know they had ~3.1M at the end of Sept. Oct and the first week of Nov. were very quiet with only ~2M shares traded. On Nov 14th you had the going concern footnote, no order from NS and little chance of the price moving above their original buy of .57, so they liquidate the rest of their shares at some point in the second half of Q4. This does two things: 1. It shows no holdings in an equity with a going concern and 2. It cleans their books of losses from an equity called Axion Power, they get to say to their clients, "Axion Power? What Axion Power."

     

    They also know they are participating in the next financing round being able to replace those shares *if they want*, they apparently wanted to, which interestingly is kind of a huge vote of confidence in the company for 2012, why else buy back in to something you so desperately wanted out of in 2011?

     

    The 50-day moving average at Dec 31 was .35, which covers most the Quarter so they couldn't have gotten ahead that way.

     

    I am still scratching my head because it is kind of fascinating and almost comical but definitely strange. I am also pretty surprised Axion let them anywhere near this but I guess $1.5M bucks is $1.5M bucks.
    19 May 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    John, how could they purchase 3 Million shares without moving the market up (or holding it sideways) in such a short period of time? That's million shares a month.

     

    Or do you think they got it all in the placement? If so that makes one wonder if their plan was to lower their cost basis by selling out before the placement and then jumping back in on what they must have suspected/heard to be a good entry. Strange indeed but maybe a positive sign.
    19 May 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    John, I'd be surprised if the legion of ponderables here didn't trouble your sleep for a night or two... And I'm sure before long you'll have divined and sifted out at least a couple of theories out as to why they did what they did ... and about what they may do going forward. Whenever it is that you arrive at something that might make sense, I'd sure love to hear your thoughts... If I recall, this has already kind of been covered, but they couldn't have been trying to game/ manipulate the Feb offering price by selling so much in December, could they? I'm pretty sure you've said that stuff like that often leads to an orange wardrobe, but c'mon. I mean, this all seems just a bit too fragrant, no?
    20 May 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    January and February were very heavy months at 11.8 and 9.1 million shares each, so buying 3 million shares during that period would have been pretty easy. I have a harder time with the idea that Special Sits could have bought in the February placement because I have to think management would have been leery to accept a second round after the way they behaved with the first round. Color me perplexed.
    20 May 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I just woke up groggily from the a sound sleep as had the weirdest dream. I dreamed that SpecSits had bought back into Axion. Bizarre. About as much chance of that happening as me hooking up with Mélissa Theuriau this evening.
    20 May 2012, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Well break out the Aqua Velva metro, here comes your night to rememba!!
    20 May 2012, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    Tax loss selling based on the timing they saw for Axion's prospects? They sure advantaged themselves if they needed a write off. But if they did it with that intent only it was a pretty gutsy move if their intent was to get back in.

     

    Not familiar with wash sale rules.

     

    Or could they cover themselves with a private agreement with Quercus via their holdings or warrants?

     

    Or maybe they went to an Exide analysts meeting and had an OMG moment (Piggyback dream of your choice here).
    20 May 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    Guys, sorry for my comments on tax loss selling. Just catching up after some brief time away. These concentrators load up quickly.

     

    Maybe I need to read everything then comment so I don't rehash prior material discussed.

     

    That street slang thing. "My bad."
    20 May 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    "trying to game/ manipulate the Feb offering price by selling so much in December, could they"

     

    A man after my own hat ... er "heart"!

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, wash sale has a 30-day time frame. Since they've been exiting for a long tim, a substantial portion of the shares sold would not be caught up in that rule.

     

    As time passed, more became ... "unencumbered".

     

    Regardless, getting out relatively higher, while simultaneously generating activity that lowered the offering price (intentional or not), certainly presents a profit opportunity if they believe that future price appreciation will occur and be substantial.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Thanks for the feedback on wash sale rules. Can be a very useful tool indeed.
    21 May 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    I've been trying to come up with some justification for Special Sits actions all weekend, that doesn't involve them wearing an orange jumpsuit in the end. Best thought I can come up with is that if they send a representative to the shareholders meeting in June, and some of us are there, maybe we can "invite" the rep to join the APC so that they can "explain" their actions! ;-)
    21 May 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Will you offer them free hospitalization to ameliorate effects of the beating they could expect to receive here if their explanation is unsuitable? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I seriously doubt that SS would trade in an account where wash sale rules apply.
    21 May 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I'm not all that familiar with types of accounts that might be exempt. I only know that my margin account is subject to it and my IRA accounts aren't

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... My margin account is not subject to it. It is mark-to-market & settles every night. I can trade the same security 100 times a day if I so desire. The only restriction is to maintain a minimum balance (cash and/or equities) to maintain my 4:1 leverage.
    21 May 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Most hedge funds are based offshore to avoid tax complications at the fund level and simplify accounting by their investor partners. So the wash sale rules aren't typically an important consideration.
    21 May 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    "Idling [automotive]vehicles are consuming energy without doing any work ... Johnson Controls, also the world's No. 1 supplier of lead-acid starter batteries, has a leading market share in this new battery market but faces competition from the likes of Denso, A123 Systems and Axion Power."

     

    http://bit.ly/JGlBZn
    19 May 2012, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mercy. No mention of Exide...
    19 May 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Maybe they didn't mention Exide since they mainly sell to the secondary market? There's been a lot said about Exide trying to get into the primary market, supplying OEMs directly with their AGM batteries, but the last thing I read said they didn't have a contract with any OEM yet. Does anyone know if this is still true?
    19 May 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps you are right LabTech...
    19 May 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Good link Mercy! Thanks to you.

     

    Of interest to me was "For a $295 premium, the new battery technology can deliver fuel economy saving of 3.5% to 10%, according to Ford".

     

    I see two points of curiosity there.

     

    1) We know Ford was joint with BMW and Axion on early evaluation of the PbC. Is there any way they would now "jump ship", being fully aware of all the hits the company (c/w)ould take with an AGM-only system? PR, customer satisfaction, warranty costs, ... All we need do is visit the various BMW owners' message boards to see how that might go.

     

    2) The price point is interesting. $295 premium includes battery upgrade from what and to what? With electronics prices dong what they do and volume purchasing power Ford has, upgraded starter/generator, VR, reprogrammed control modules, ... does that price leave room for LA->PbC or AGM->PbC?

     

    Might be premature, but assuming a 2014 or later model year, ...

     

    But then I see this: "Ford Motor Co. announced last month that the new battery technology will boost mileage in the 2013 Fusion to 37 mpg ...". So Ford is ready to either take the hit from using a less-capable battery, has worked out an alternative strategy and configuration that avoids the hits, or has the PbC designed in.

     

    From what we *think* we know about volumes required, second-source considerations and *possibly* the need to conduct fleet testing as is the case with BMW, I don't see how Ford would be putting PbC in the 2013 model year.

     

    In this application, it's beginning to look like we have an automotive version of "extend and pretend" that's been conducted by central banks. Do something to keep afloat until enough time passes that we can "earn our way out of this mess".

     

    Then what? Does the window close on the PbC in this application due to wide acceptance of whatever the industry is doing in the meantime? Do we end up having to overcome a new "indistry inertia" to get in there?

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    Sounds similar to what they've been saying for 4 years. I'd bet it's am agm battery and the fuel numbers only are good for a few weeks/months (not years).

     

    http://bit.ly/JtDXGx
    20 May 2012, 03:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, I'm guessing these are not all aftermarket (service) with the relative newness of SS.

     

    http://bit.ly/tO9zJQ
    20 May 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,

     

    "Today, a total of 10 European car manufacturers rely on Exide AGM and ECM batteries to be on-board their micro-hybrid vehicles. Exide Technologies is the second largest supplier of Start-Stop batteries in Europe. Since 2010, Exide has doubled its output of Start-Stop batteries and will invest an additional $80 million to upgrade the production capacity for micro-hybrid batteries in Europe. There, Exide is on its way to expand production from two plants today to four plants. In the US, Exide Technologies started the production of AGM batteries in 2010"
    Definitely looks that way. Hmmm...so where did I read that about Exide and OEMs? I thought it was on one of their Q statements. Maybe I should just go back to moving our lab and not try and remember battery stuff. I keep getting it wrong.
    20 May 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I still think Exide is more prevalent in the after market than the OEM sector. Maybe getting away from commodity flooded or the fact that vehicles, like the recent BMW discussion, are starting to work toward locking in only one battery supplier/type for replacements pushed Exide to be more aggressive in OEM. They have also for some time been hobbled by legacy obligations and maybe with some of this behind them it's allowing for more latitude in strategy. Can only guess.

     

    As for you focus on the lab. Well it's a necessity. Catching up in a form like this is easier when you find time. Beats turning all the rocks over yourself. Not to mention the concentrator board has a far better tool set as a whole to find/assess things than we do individually.
    20 May 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Well then, the big, whopper question is how are these 2.5M Exide AGM batteries performing in new European S/S vehicles?
    20 May 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Well enough I would guess, (if indeed they ever placed that many) but probably not saving as much gas as advertised...
    20 May 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    It would be intersting to know the % that replacement for "failed" ones by OEM. Probably small though if they follow the BMW strategty of "it's your driving profile, just needs re-charging".

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    Ahhhh, Hiding in the good ole grey area. The preferred hue for the smoke screen of the corporate entity looking to meet government targets on the cheap.

     

    But one must apply this much more cautiously in the internet age. Knowledge is power and playing games with consumers can lead to shocking outcomes.

     

    Well unless you offer something @ 9.99 usd with additional baubles as a "CALL NOW" incentive, hit em hard and disappear. Not a wise move if you have huge sums of long term capital at risk.
    21 May 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1109) | Send Message
     
    I actually came across this article yesterday and was seeing if it had been posted yet.

     

    This article seems to be a more detailed view of he Johnson controls article about the lack of customer knowledge on S/S. as an Axpw shareholder I don't like the two specifics.

     

    1. A price and specific mention of Ford. Other research has led me to a guy at Ford whose title is head engineer of start/stop. That means they aren't screwing around. This isn't by accident, and stating 2013 means they are ready to go.

     

    2. AND MORE IMPORTANTLY. Is this just Agm? Or something more. Do we have any news about anything from varta?

     

    I may be overly concerned from one article but jci has always been the only company I was concerned about.
    23 May 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    It all boils down to the issue of "Best Available Technology."

     

    There is a growing body of evidence that the PbC will prove to be the *best* technology for stop-start, but until the automakers complete all their testing that potential is theoretical rather than actual.

     

    Even if the automakers decide that the PbC is the *best* technology, it won't be *available* in relevant auto industry scale (e.g. 5 to 20 million units per year) for a long time.

     

    We're currently facing a situation where the word available trumps the word best, and that makes AGM the current best available technology for stop-start.

     

    For now the automakers are doing the best job they can with available technology. When the PbC or some other significantly better technology is available in relevant scale they'll upgrade their products to take advantage of the newer technology's capabilities.

     

    It is extremely hard to supplant an entrenched technology if you can only offer modest performance improvements. When the new product is an order of magnitude better, supplanting entrenched technology is far simpler.
    23 May 2012, 03:05 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    I think it should be expected that as S-S rolls out AGM is going to get the first go around, with modest system architecture for S-S delivering modest MPG improvements. To really get the bang for the buck in S-S, they are going to need a more robust battery that handles High dynamic charge acceptance and cycles for thousands and thousand of times. The fuel savings in these systems will be closer to 20%.
    23 May 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1109) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.

     

    I've been away from these Power Concentrators for a month or two taking care of personal business but reading this article in my local fishwrap made my hair standup.

     

    The part that concerned me was if the JCI guy was discussing competitors for current tech he would have left out Axion. For him to include was first surprising and I took as positive and then I spent time worrying about the negative.

     

    Based on recent comments from mgmt at Axion we have an idea on revenue and hopefully cashflow for the next 18 months but are unsure of mix/market.

     

    Reading some other comments this also tells me that I should basiscally eliminate all hope for a surprise automotive win this fall in a smaller BMW line. The problem is should I exclude 2013's fiscal year (Model year 2013 into 2014) as well as supply contracts should be getting complete. Frankly, I had assumed the only way to go 300% revenues next year was for an automotive win as I expect the NS order to ramp but in a probable steady fashion for conversions.
    29 May 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Investors spend a lot of time assuming the worst in everything. It's a great way to avoid disappointment, but it also gets tiring after a while. I don't discount the possibility of a small automotive order this fall for the 2013 MY. I'm certainly unwilling to write off the 2014 MY which starts next September. I'm also more optimistic than most about the short term prospects with the railroads because they're in a business that can't test technology in onsies and twosies. For an effort to appear credible to regulators and shareholders it has to be a statistically valid sample and when you have a 4000 unit fleet that could be a healthy number.
    29 May 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    It's frankly unclear if SS lost any money on their original buy at .57. They sold into the rally to $1.27 and all the way down to .25. I think they didn't lose much of anything in toto. .35 may have just been to enticing given what they knew of the company's prospects. I think they bought with the new capital raise, but that's speculation on my part.
    19 May 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    Nice find, Mercy! JCI facing competition from Axion Power has a very nice ring to it. Additional commentary there of interest to includes,
    <
    "The company found one-third of consumers would be interested in the technology at a price point of $500 and with gas prices at $4 a gallon.

     

    As gas prices approach $5 a gallon, interest grows to the point that two-thirds of those surveyed would be interested, Metcalf-Kupres said.

     

    But American car buyers want a lot more from their vehicles than fuel economy. They want comfort, performance and safety, and they don't want to sacrifice any of those to achieve saving."
    <
    Don't want to sacrifice comfort, performance or safety to achieve fuel savings suggests to me a dual battery system along the lines of Axion's proposal.
    19 May 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Strictly speaking Axion is not a competitor to JCI. It will be a supply vendor, if ever it works out.
    19 May 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    Point taken, DR. Axion Power could be a JCI "partner" through an electrode supply agreement. It could also be a competitor since Axion does plan to produce and sell PbC batteries itself (but not in the volumes JCI is accustomed to dealing with).

     

    ;-) As observed before, suggestion of Axion Power in competition with JCI has a nice ring to it. Credibility of the suggestion is another matter altogether as is expertise of an author that begins an article with "A battery that shuts off the car's engine when the vehicle is idling ...." Exercising literary license there, perhaps, but not technically accurate. Perhaps he did so as prelude to lumping JCI, Denso, AXPW, and A123 together. JCI produces both batteries and control systems while as far as I can tell the others produce one or the other, but not both.
    19 May 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    While Axion will make PbC batteries in its own plants, I expect it to focus on high margin niches for proprietary batteries and partner with others for larger lower margin commodity markets like automotive.

     

    Another important dynamic is the oft-unspoken reality that automakers will be more comfortable buying PbC batteries from a JCI-Axion joint venture than they would buying the batteries from Axion. A side benefit is that joint ventures typically require less capital from the technology partner than they do from the manufacturing partner.

     

    I don't foresee a situation where Axion simply licenses the PbC for a market like automotive, but I can imagine partnering arrangements that would leave Axion with a firm grip on the technology aspects while giving bigger and better manufacturers control over the day to day detail of building and delivering enough PbC batteries to serve the customers' needs.
    20 May 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Tim Enright: Based on the ensuing discussion, I believe you struck gold with that link to the shares purchase by SS.

     

    I wanted to heave a big ol' "Kudos" your way for the effort and the find.

     

    It's this sort of thing that makes this place what it is.

     

    As a follow-on to the discussion, with the apparent selling pressure we've seen, it'll be interesting to see how many shares they report in the future.

     

    I'm suspicious because leopards don't change their spots easily.

     

    Thanks again,
    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. So many people make contributions, I am glad that I was able to add something interesting...
    20 May 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how you found it, but thanks Tim.
    20 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... If SS does the same kind of selling tactic (?) this year as last, it could only be an effort to break the back of Axion. It would also mean that Axion has a severe lack of interest problem from everyone else in the world being unwilling to buy in ... except us.
    20 May 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    How would SS gain how from hurting the PPS? Do they own a competitor? I'd think AXPW and any competitor is insignificant in their overall portfolio.
    20 May 2012, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >bazooooka ... I'm not even going there because it leads down into the pit of conspiracy theory. I just hope sales come and SS doesn't sell in front of a capital raise again. I'm content to sit back and watch.
    20 May 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Just seems like such a small play for a larger organization. I can understand them investing based on an assessment of sector needs and company technology but a player like Special Sits trying to manipulate a stock to get nickels and dimes. Don't know how that would work out.

     

    But hey, it's the stock market. I'm sure we could all share some personal stories and we're outsiders. But I guess this could just my imagination because after the recent banking crisis few got prosecuted so I guess very few crimes were committed. It's all good!
    20 May 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Regarding that link Tim posted, if we view all holdings (the default) (AXPW) is not there. Not in new positions, not in closed positions either.

     

    http://bit.ly/K4jhst

     

    What does it mean when they show increased positions for quarter ending 3/31/2012 but Axion is not in any other category, closed, new, all?

     

    The suspicion of what it means raises my hackles.

     

    13.02M shares traded Feb-Mar. Their 3,408,000 "increase" would be easily taken up even when we divide by 2.

     

    If they did what I think, I can't be pleased that TG implied thanks to those shareholders. Feels like an "us vs. them" scenario to me.

     

    Then I look at my intra-day stats stuff (I've only charted back to 2/6) ...

     

    Max VW Av Tr Pr 0.4487 2/6
    Min VW Av Tr Pr 0.3418 5/1
    VWAP $0.4052 3/30

     

    We hit a string of early lows ~3/6 through ~3/16 (can be seen below and my chart). Could've been all Quercus? I doubt it.

     

    The charts from JP or my instablog paint a stark graphic of what was going on while we all wondered who besides Quercus was selling. We know Quercus didn't dump *that* much.

     

    And even worse, looking at some older stuff, notice the price ranges shortly before the issue was announced.

     

    111 Vol 1060818, Sht 0546788 51.54% LHC 0.4700 0.5800 0.58 b:s N/A
    112 Vol 1432590, Sht 0649648 39.67% LHC 0.4900 0.5900 0.51 b:s 1.20:1
    113 Vol 0557629, Sht 0288831 43.21% LHC 0.4900 0.5100 0.50 b:s 1.67:1
    117 Vol 0318302, Sht 0070167 22.04% LHC 0.4800 0.5000 0.4801 b:s 1:3.66
    118 Vol 0473580, Sht 0028000 05.91% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    119 Vol 0575695, Sht 0215158 37.37% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    120 Vol 0341334, Sht 0244934 71.76% LHC 0.4201 0.4900 0.4350 b:s 1:2.48
    123 Vol 0199038, Sht 0126503 63.56% LHC 0.4752 0.5050 0.4950 b:s 9.42:1
    124 Vol 0677878, Sht 0352177 51.95% LHC 0.4810 0.5900 0.5400 b:s 5.06:1
    125 Vol 0330462, Sht 0195966 59.30% LHC 0.5500 0.5999 0.5850 b:s 3.20:1
    126 Vol 0303847, Sht 0164697 54.20% LHC 0.5700 0.6400 0.6400 b:s 2.54:1
    130 Vol 0298501, Sht 0097424 32.64% LHC 0.5800 0.6290 0.6220 b:s 1:1.10
    131 Vol 0375251, Sht 0207923 55.41% LHC 0.5800 0.6199 0.6179 b:s 2.59:1
    201 Vol 2476749, Sht 0948628 38.30% LHC 0.3800 0.5500 0.4700 b:s 1:1.20
    202 Vol 0584698, Sht 0181905 31.11% LHC 0.4200 0.4800 0.4397 b:s 1.39:1
    203 Vol 1019813, Sht 0235609 23.10% LHC 0.4301 0.4690 0.4600 b:s 1.34:1

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I believe the "all holdings" page is only showing the top 100 of their held securities... when in the verbiage above it indicates that they hold a total of 394 different securities... my inference is merely that Axion didn't make the top 100...

     

    Maybe I'm missing something but about the only thing that makes less sense to me than for them to sell off everything in December and then repurchase this year would be for them to sell off everything, repurchase, and then sell again... but I stand by to be educated..
    20 May 2012, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3526) | Send Message
     
    What are you seeing "special" in the dates 3-6 thru 3-16; total volume is only like 1M+ thus only 500K can be buys and/or sells over that period.

     

    HT, why do you say:

     

    "If they did what I think, I can't be pleased that TG implied thanks to those shareholders. Feels like an us vs. them scenario to me."

     

    and

     

    "What does it mean when they show increased positions for quarter ending 3/31/2012 but Axion is not in any other category, closed, new, all? The suspicion of what it means raises my hackles."
    20 May 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    While sites like the one Tim linked to can be helpful tools, they only offer summaries of information found in original source documents filed with the SEC. For Special Sits, the critical source documents are here:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/ryCqoH

     

    The key data filings are the 13F-HRs and those documents show that Special Sits was out at 12-31-11 and back in with 3.4 million shares at 3-31-12. I can see three possible explanations.

     

    1. That they bought shares in the open market during the heavy trading days of January and February.
    2. That they bought in the February offering with the intention of holding the shares for a long-term investment, or
    3. That they bought in the February offering with the intention of being a 20% up and out flipper.

     

    None of the alternatives are inherently good or bad because I can't imagine that they bought with the intention of losing money by selling at a loss. I'll be very curious to see what shows up in their next 13F-HR, but that won't be filed till mid-August.
    20 May 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    48: I didn't notice that "top 100". Probably 'splains it.

     

    That makes me feel a bit better.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 03:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka; the volume on the particular dates doesn't relate directly to prices on those days. Volumes at and near bottoms of trends are often very much smaller than the volumes during the body of the trend, although there can be "spikes" signifying the end of the trend.

     

    25-day average volume before the issue announcement was ~641.6K/day. Even after the large volume of 2.55M on 2/1, our 25-day average had fallen to ~432K on 3/2 and ~201K on 3/16 as prices fell from a high of $0.55 on 2/1 to the lows I mentioned.

     

    So, as usual, lots of volume early as lots of folks dump early and then as price keeps trending down others exit, etc. Further, lots of folks wait until they believe down trends are nearing an end to start coming back in. And then they might tip-toe in until they gain more confidence they judged correctly.

     

    Now, from what others posted, I missed the fact that only the top 100 were shown in that link Tim posted. So I can't as strongly suspect that they might have been a major factor, as I did before the clue-bat smacked me.

     

    But if not for that, SS dumped EOY and I wouldn't be surprised to see them do it again. From that - them pushing price down while we hope it goes up - it's just like the whole market, "us vs. them" in my mind. "They" want my money and I want to keep it and take theirs.

     

    "Raises my hackles" is the response I have when one that dumped out comes in and (before the clue-bat) looks like they might be doing it again.

     

    Doesn't affect my trading or investing though.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 04:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Yep. I was totally clueless when looking at the stuff Tim linked. Might have been affected by the fact that I just added volume and daily short sales stuff to my charts (not posted yet - still trying to make more readable).

     

    The were noticeable trends and aberrations in both. Combined with my distraction on that front, I was careless in not thinking more about what was shown by what Tim linked.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    I wish I had more clarity on what kind of market maker transactions give rise to FINRA reported daily short positions for OTCBB securities. While I'm certain that shares moving from registered form to electronic form are a big part of the FINRA data, I can't tell what else might be included in the total.

     

    When I run the numbers from April 2010 forward, the total of the FINRA short positions is about 12.8 million shares (±10% of trading volume) higher than the number of shares I think moved from paper form to electronic form.
    20 May 2012, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    John,
    The rules require that whenever the market-maker makes a sale for shares not in their control (in their portfolio?) they *must* flag it as a short sale.

     

    I believe confusion and uncertainty comes because, as you identified in the past, there was a strong correlation between certificate conversion delays and daily short sales.

     

    But, as we've also discussed, from my investigation there are apparently other conditions where the shares are not in the market-makers' account (or that of their owning broker?).

     

    My simplistic and as yet uninformed scenario goes like this.

     

    N.B. Any of your knowledge of the CEDE and DTC operations might lend some additional clarity here.

     

    Person A trades at broker B (electronic or otherwise). He enters a sell order that goes to market-maker C, which is *not* an arm of broker B. If MM C executes the sell order and the shares have not been transferred to C's control, he must flag that as a short sale per FINRA and SEC rules.

     

    Usually within T+3 the shares, somehow, either get in his portfolio (electronic transfer through facilities the DTC now provides to assist in these operations?) or get netted out by some arm of the DTC.

     

    The netting and/or covering buys of the market-maker are never reported to us though.

     

    This is why I've for so long raised the possibility that the market-makers can be long (temporarily at least). On the same day he shorts, there's no reason he couldn't make a covering buy (which you've also suggested in relation to some supposed Quercus activity), leading to the ability to net out the same day, if so desired. If that happens, when the shares backing the original sell order "arrive", there's nothing to net against. These shares are now available for sale by the MM, at possibly increased profit.

     

    I've noticed over several years that more market-makers are arms of trading/brokerage firms, such as Night Capital, ETrade, ... In these cases I don't know if the shares would be considered "in the portfolio" of the captive market-maker. I *suspect* that with computerized systems a sell order by the owning broker's customer would be either considered in the market-maker's control or would be electronically immediately placed into the market-maker's account (most likely IMO). So no short flag would be needed.

     

    That's about all I know. In conjunction with that, I suspect there's a lot of smaller firms that don't have their own market-maker and habitually use market-makers such as those provided by ETrade, Night Capital, ARCA, ... I presume that these shares, held in "street name"(?) have to go through an electronic transfer/accounting process (based on what I've seen on the DTCC facilities so far that support such operations) to transfer control of those shares from the broker to the market maker.

     

    Supposed to be T+3, max, but I think with the new facilities the DTC has provided it might commonly happen much more quickly now.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Sounds like trying to find a snake in a room full of unwound hoses.
    20 May 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Trying to figure it all out is more like a mystery wrapped in an enigma with a tasty nougat center.
    20 May 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    While walking the dog this morning I developed a pet theory outlined in the following imaginary press releases:
    ##
    Special Situations (SS) announced this morning that Ina R. Drew, the executive who presided over the $2 billion trading loss that JPMorgan Chase disclosed last week, has been their consulting chief strategist for SS's battery energy division since November 2011.
    ##
    Special Situations announces their newest mutual fund, "The Davy Jones Monkees Fund". The fund was named after the former Monkees singer who passed away earlier this year. The prospectus reads: "Baby boomers can recreate the wacky, zany and unpredictable antics of their favorite TV show with this new mutual fund. This fund will strive to beat stock market averages by being unconventional and erratic." The Managing Director of the fund, Nick Leeson, stated that the fund will consciously at times buy high and sell low, and intentionally lose money to keep the competition off balance. Relying on surprise and irrationality as the strategy of the fund. He added that it was the same successful strategy he employed while working at Barings Bank.

     

    Have a nice Sunday.
    20 May 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Excellent retort, Excellent retort, Excellent Retort.

     

    I thank you for that imaginary report.
    20 May 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    My theory is:
    -.Buy high and sell low. (From the way SS did.)
    -.Buy again low.
    At this point I feel normal.
    My concern now is whether SS will restart the sale of purchased or will continue buying.
    I do not feel well, but I will have to accept this dirty strategy.
    20 May 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I guess we can only wait until August to see what their strategy is, and maybe then we won't have a complete picture. Whatever their strategy, it is to make money for them. However, from the JPMorgan announced losses, just because they are big doesn't make them always right. My concern is that by being big, the market reacts to their buying and selling. Whether or not influencing the market up or down is a conscious decision on their part, versus a strategic investment, is another matter. It just seems a bizarre turn of events, at least from where I am sitting; and based on their history I can't say I am elated, but maybe they are in for long term, or maybe TonyMontana9 is head of special sits?
    20 May 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Many retail investors view sellers as some kind of perverse and evil force until the day they decide to exit a position, when selling becomes a perfectly normal, rational and acceptable thing to do.

     

    In my experience, every company that doesn't go public through an IPO has to struggle through a period when the price is depressed by selling stockholders. Even companies that do a successful IPO dread the day when lockup restrictions on old stockholders expire. There is no law in the Universe that's stronger than the law of supply and demand.

     

    Sometimes demand builds quickly and the inflection points come early. Sometimes demand builds slowly. Every once in great while *bad luck* comes into play when big investors that were *supposed* to be long term holders get crushed in market crashes, change managers or simply die in car wrecks.

     

    The most important part of eating through a supply and demand imbalance is attracting investors who buy with a long time-horizon and are willing to put the stock away in a drawer for a couple years.

     

    If that can be accomplished, the excess stock will have to change hands once where it might have to change hands a dozen times if the typical buyer thinks "I'll hold this puppy for three months then bail." The best stockholder base a public company can have is one understands the business, understands the opportunity and is patient enough to give management time to develop a business instead of chasing analysts expectations.

     

    I keep going back to the point that the identity of the sellers doesn't matter because they make themselves irrelevant once they've sold. The critical question is "who's doing all the buying?" because those buyers define the next stage. If the attitudes I read in the APCs are representative, and I believe they are, the next stage should be a lot of fun. I pity the next generation of bottom feeders who think they're going to lure stock away from the Axionistas.
    20 May 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I guess we *do* know who did some of the buying at least. What we don't know is what could have motivated them to do such a 180 so soon after hastily getting out of Dodge. Within the considerable limits of my sophistication, I've tried to whittle it down. Assuming for the moment, pace metro, that they *are* indeed rational, I figure one of these three things obtains...It's either:

     

    They gooned something,
    They know something,
    They're trying to pull something.

     

    Having to share the traincar with these characters for the next 100 miles is going to be hilarious. I just gotta hope they know something. ;)
    20 May 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4235) | Send Message
     
    :-) 481', my real hope is that the reason I own AXPW is because "I know something!"
    20 May 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Special Sits started selling in Q1 with 1.3 million shares. They continued in Q2 with another 3 million. Their Q3 sales were 1.4 million and they finished with a bang in Q4 with 3.2 million. If they sold at the average price for each quarter they made about $500,000. If they sold toward the top end of the price range in each quarter they could have come out $1 million or more ahead in spite of an ugly fourth quarter.

     

    While it may seem strange to us, I can see them thinking "We made a little money on our 2009 investment and may been a hasty in our decision to sell. Let's take our profit from the first series and put it back into the new round."

     

    The one thing I'm confident they won't do is deliberately lose money.
    20 May 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I daresay all Axionistas are of that belief. We all like to think we are following the play correctly. But there's still some advantage to having had backstage access, versus merely being in the audience, however attentive one might be...
    20 May 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    So we now have Blackrock selling and SS buying? From my point of view i am concerned of SS looking to make another quick profit at some point with really no interest in the company at all.

     

    Am i possibly correct?

     

    map
    20 May 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The only thing we know about Blackrock is that they sold some shares last year and we sold some shares in the first quarter. There's no basis to assume that they're actively selling now.

     

    One of the possibilities I suggested for Special Sits is that they could have bought in February with the intention of being a 20% up and out flipper. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
    20 May 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. If you are going to flip why not start at .55? Have a peek at the volume, they could have been out in the first 3 days.

     

    http://yhoo.it/K48LSE

     

    And I do hope it was them. Good riddance...
    21 May 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The report reflected their holdings as of March 31st, so we know they didn't sell out in February.

     

    It would not be unreasonable for a fund to take the position that they wanted to be on the sidelines until the financing risk was resolved. So I can see how a fund manager might say "we're taking our cash out of the game until you bring your next financing round together, but if you can put together $X million from other investors, we'll come back in as part of that round.
    21 May 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Hmm... I have to admit, that does sound like a sound and plausible reason. And one not really that disturbing. Though it's a bit disconcerting I suppose to think that SS would deem Axion's financing risk to be so high as to prompt a complete sale of their holdings. Presumably, they would have been aware of the viridity partnership and powercube unveiling in November along with everyone else, but maybe they just added an extra helping of caution for reasons of their own...
    21 May 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes financing terms in the small-cap world are brutal. A good example of the kind of transactions that keep people awake at night is the $50 million in debt A123 closed last week that's payable in semi-monthly installments and convertible at 82% of market. It's also not all that unusual to see outsized warrant coverage. The fact that Axion's been able to sell straight equity without warrants or other sweeteners says a lot about the company's potential.
    21 May 2012, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Well there is that March 31st thing <smile>. Still we don't know how much they came in for. They are still on my bad guy list. I guess I will take my tin foil hat off now...
    21 May 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    They're not necessarily bad guys Tim. Remember the immortal words of Mario Puzo, “it's just business nothing personal...”
    21 May 2012, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    "Sometimes financing terms in the small-cap world are brutal."

     

    I'm NOT saying SS did this, as I have no idea, but I've seen holders of micro-cap stock bail out before an offering, to help crush the price for the new deal's price-setting period. Sometimes it doesn't take much capital at all to manipulate a micro-cap's price.

     

    But hey, that was 10-15 years ago--maybe the micro-cap world has changed dramatically for the better. ha
    21 May 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tim,
    I look at it a little different. At least SS (if they were in on the raise) contributed to keeping the doors open for another year.
    21 May 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    I've seen that pattern too, but I don't think it happened in this case because the trading data shows that most of the Q4 selling took place in the last half of the quarter when it looks like SS sold 3.1 million shares at an average trading price of $.33.

     

    Given the parity between the number of shares sold and then bought and the fact that the February offering price was higher than the average trading price for the last six weeks of the year, I'm not overly suspicious.

     

    That being said, the mere fact that we're occasionally paranoid does not prove they're not out to get us.
    21 May 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, the cases that I know of where current holders tried to drive the price down did so only at about the time of the deal--they didn't sell way ahead of time. The closer to a "hedge" they could create, the better. Leaving too much time between selling and repurchasing was too risky--maybe the stock moves a lot higher during that period. You just don't know with much confidence, the way micro-caps often jump around.

     

    Anyway, all the "wild" ways that guys used to try to move the price around/jockey for position/scheme/financial engineer, etc. in small-caps was bewildering to me. I was, and still am, much more comfortable spending most of my time on the underlying companies instead, buying at reasonable prices, then holding for the long-term. I readily acknowledge the importance of the other stuff, but that always seemed like it was less under my control/understanding than the company fundamentals. I'm more confident that Axion will profitably sell a lot of PbC batteries, and that value will be eventually recognized by the stk mkt, than I am that Blackrock or SS will hold for as long as I will, for example.
    21 May 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    you sell out of axpw in dec (you've been selling all year) to clean up your portfolio to attract new money. you get your january deposits and buy axpw.

     

    is that not a viable scenario?
    20 May 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Tragic: sounds like a variation on the old "window dressing".

     

    Just a variation of the many shcemes used to assure bonuses and job retention, draw in new money by making it appear you many fewer "losers" and more "winners" than you really had.

     

    We see it near the end of each quarter and it gets exacerbated near EOY.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I guess so. Honestly, I know I have virtually no insight into what they were thinking, or even if they were thinking-- if any human thought was put into it at all... it just seems to be kind of clumsy, heavy footed, and lacking finesse. Or maybe it was in fact sublime finesse. I guess we'll see what they do and how it works out. But even your idea, that they'd clean up their portfolio in December, just to go out and dirty it right back up two month's later? Just seems kind of bizarre. Unless of course, some new and exciting information came to their awareness. Perhaps in the latest round's due diligence phase they learned some new things that were much to their liking. Maybe some little factoid bubbled up from somewhere in amongst all their other 394 holdings that correlates in some obscure way with Axion but points to something good coming... All we know is they bought back in. Maybe for excellent reasons. Maybe for lousy, specious, or cynical reasons. But maybe good reasons. I just wanna think good thoughts. ;)
    20 May 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    well, if we get to 31 cents i'm gonna be real interested in jumping right back in, lol. until aug. we won't know. honestly, let them sell because then it doesn't matter what they think/ were thinking.
    20 May 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Here is my take on the SS situation.

     

    SS needed money to kep other investments afloat during their cash crunch. They sold their Axion stock because they had the warrants to fall back on if things got better. All that makes sense.

     

    I am assuming that the cash crunch situation is now free and clear. The other "clean tech" investments have tanked, totaled, grown , or readjusted to a new reality.

     

    Whats SS to do? Perhaps they can now redirect assets to a company that was awarded a NS contract. Best bet of all the "clean tech" investments available today.

     

    SS was straightforward about there investment and disinvestment strategy. They never talked about who they loved the most and would jump back in bed with if the price was right.
    20 May 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I think you may be confusing SS with Quercus... I was unaware that SS held any warrants...
    20 May 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    48,
    You are correct/ I did mix those two up.

     

    As an old SNL comedian use to say: "Excuseeeeeeeee Me"
    20 May 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Hey, that's no old SNL comedian, that was Steve Martin!
    For the love of god, people! ;)
    20 May 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Better yet? "Never Mind".

     

    I loved Emily Latilla(sp?).

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    Less violins on tv.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lu1vSw

     

    Then of coarse we have Roseanne Roseannadanna.

     

    http://bit.ly/LaEXQV

     

    Gilda Radner was a real peach.
    21 May 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    With tin foil hat firmly in place...

     

    Special Sits made their AXPW profits the first half of 2011. They closed their position the last quarter knowing they could get back in on the Feb 1 placement at 10% above the 60 day VWMA which they helped drive into the ground knowing it would rebound quickly after the first of the year. They sold their entire position as fast as they could starting with the first day of the placement and are now out (have been for sometime)...
    20 May 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    The most cynical dark side of me would portray the Axionistas as Earl Weaver, and Special Sits as the baseball umpire in this verbal exchange; believing that SS was only buying shares for one reason, to ............... Caution harsh language.

     

    http://bit.ly/JcWokq
    20 May 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    A thing of purest beauty. ;)
    20 May 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Does it remind anybody else of the schoolyard in 5th or 6th grade around a (dodge)ball game?

     

    LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Lit'l more than a week old interesting development about the United States Postal Department:

     

    http://bit.ly/KHBj1I
    20 May 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: Follow-up article on the "virus battery charger:

     

    http://bit.ly/KSY8SK
    20 May 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya, Interesting stuff for the some day folder.
    20 May 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    OT, but kinda fun. I'm always keen to see the latest faddish cool bubble properly punctured. (And see mistreated heroes of the past redeemed)
    http://onforb.es/L9BNNv
    20 May 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    Thanks. One of the best articles for just interesting reading of history and progress and competition that I have read in a long time. To think of GE (Edison) and Westinghouse ( Telsa) going at it on whether DC current or AC current was best for America make todays fight over S/S or EV technology look puny.

     

    Yet history looks today a lot like yesterday.
    When I look at the PbC and how disruptive a technology it can be in the next ten years I try and find a parallel.

     

    I would love to hear examples of what product our shareholders believe the PbC will mimic in its growth and acceptance.
    20 May 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    New or at least older very detailed technical information about the PbC, Ultrabattery, and all other battery technologies.

     

    I don't recall this report being touted before but , as a non techy battery type I liked the thorough explanation of each battery technology. Good description of the powers and faults of the ultra battery. HMM. Seems that Axion might have been silent or reluctant to distribute information back in 2010.

     

    Check out section Y.
    http://bit.ly/rT4uFO

     

    I would appreciate comments from all those that know what they are talking about letting me in on the ultra battery to PbC comparison in this report.

     

    Looks to me that both have a market and both have some faults.

     

    I also want to comment that it appears from this research that John Petersen could be correct. Since the ultrabattery cannot be defined other than a PbC electrode on the negative side, I think that patent infringement thing he keeps mentioning is a real possibility. Much more so now after I read this report.

     

    As always, interested in all thoughts.
    20 May 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Shall we trade a little patent infringement for a toll contract... I have seen this document and is my favorite although I do wish they would update it with a better look at the PbC as it exists today...
    20 May 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: As you know, battery "geekology" is not one of my strong suits. However, I do have some quibbles with section Y.

     

    --The early lead-acid batteries were employed to provide load leveling
    and to average out the demand peaks. Since then, numerous
    stationary systems up to multi-MW/MWh (see details in the
    section under Potential Technologies) were installed, which demonstrated
    the value of the lead-acid batteries in the grid. However,
    the limited cycle life incurs a high life-cycle cost (see Figure 7)
    because of the corrosion of the battery’s positive plate/grid and the
    sulfation of the battery’s negative plate/grid. During high-rate discharge,
    a compact layer of lead sulfate can form on the surface of the
    negative plate, which is difficult to recharge.304,307 The accumulation
    of lead sulfate reduces markedly the effective surface-area and
    limits its performance. On the other hand, a high-rate charge promotes
    an early evolution of hydrogen, reducing the charging efficiency
    of the plate. As such, the VRLA is limited to 30-70% SOC
    at high rates and under a partial SOC. In addition, it takes about 5
    times as long to recharge a lead-acid battery to the same charge
    capacity as it does to discharge. Measures were taken to overcome
    the performance limitations of the lead-acid battery.308,309 While
    some improvement was achieved, the degree of the improvement
    does not meet the desirable targets required by many applications.

     

    ####

     

    The kicker to this, when it comes to cycle recharge rates, discharge rates and durability, is that Axion's positive electrode (not mentioned in this article), when combined with the PbC's carbon activated cathode, still has no bounds.

     

    We are only a month away from being in New Castle for the shareholder's conference. I have lot's to learn before then.
    20 May 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I thought what you quoted was correct. I thought the limited info on the PbC was correct. It even spelled out some issues (including cost) of the UltraBattery.

     

    I'm with you on gearing up for the June Conference.
    Interesting quirk of fate:
    My wife has a collection of hand sculptured wooden angels. She was so taken with the name of the local restaurant she became quite supportive of my trip to New Castle. Thanks for picking that spot for our get together.
    21 May 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Still have some figuring as to when we'll all dine together. Should be a lot of fun!
    21 May 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    If I am not mistaken, JP wrote an article discussing this report about a year ago ...
    20 May 2012, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    various stuff, but includes an interesting blurb about emerging consensus in china that HEVs are the way to go...
    20 May 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2432) | Send Message
     
    When push comes to shove it comes down to the bottom line:

     

    March/2012 vs March/2011
    -

     

    Cash and cash equivalents - ending
    $ 8,520,232
    $ 10,463,157

     

    $ 8,520,232

     

    Net proceeds from sale of common stock
    8,626,007

     

    Without the issuance of shares, there is no Cash, they managed to use/lose around $10.6 mil between the 2 equivalent periods of time.

     

    The Insiders (Officers/Directors) are Not buying their own shares regardless of price. Not at $.41-.43 where there is heavy selling nor at $.35 or the All time low of $.25.

     

    Because of the Hype on AXPW, it has trading potential.

     

    Caveat Emptor

     

    21 May 2012, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10555) | Send Message
     
    Freya: You are a long term great friend of mine, one of which I hold great respect for. Yet, your (lack of) knowledge of Axion Power, and how you last time posted stuff about insider trading, and now this time about the bottom line...I advise all who read this to dismiss Freya's comment...as a completely uninformed comment. Freya does not understand the evolvement of the Axion story...PERIOD!

     

    As you know, Freya, start ups rarely have a bottom line that kicks ass.

     

    You should know better. If this affects our friendship deleteriously, than so be it. To stop in here like you have several times...well...you must have another agenda.

     

    Being friends, if you want answers to ANY questions about your qualms about Axion Power, than please feel free to contact me via email. You have my e-address. I will do my best to answer them.

     

    But to twice come in here, without qualified data...well...it just bums me out. Truly saddens me.

     

    I covet all things negative about Axion, but not ones that are not well researched, not understood why they happened. Everyone, every Axionista, expects another dilution/capital raise to happen early next year, or late this year.

     

    That might be your trading opportunity.
    21 May 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    R&D stage companies lose money every year until they finish their product development and testing.

     

    Transition stage companies lose money until they ramp sales to a point where they're profitable.

     

    Axion's directors and officers funded the company to the tune of $15 million before they started taking significant money from outside investors. Their average cost is several times the current market price. I can't speak for the rest of the guys, but I bet the castle (http://bit.ly/wG86fS) on the PbC six years ago and I don't have another million dollars of liquidity lying around to double down on my bet.

     

    A chicken is interested in a ham and eggs breakfast, but the pig is committed. When the chickens presume to criticize the pig for not doing more something is out of kilter.
    21 May 2012, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I may be only a piglet, but I ain't a gonna squawk! ;)

     

    ...well, not too much anyway.
    21 May 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    But when the days comes I will be cackling like a biddy hen that just found the secret corn feed stash!

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    I do not know if Freya "has a friend on the inside at SA" -- what I do know is that some of her past comments have been deleted. I was given the impression at the time that the deletions were made by SA because Freya had been banned in the past from SA.

     

    If the deletions were made by the APC -- I find that very disappointing irrespective of whether I agree or disagree with the comments made or "how" they were made. As Lafferty pointed out recently "Constructive critique, asking hard questions, etc., with regard to *any* company is absolutely essential, and I would not be at all comfortable participating in the APC or, frankly, holding AXPW, if the blog neglected to include this." He made that comment after someone whose opinion I respect was charged with "grasping at negative straws" when he asked hard questions.
    21 May 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    I have seen this allegation of the APC potentially "deleting" comments because they were negative or hard to answer or critical several times, so I have decided to respond to it.

     

    I have been participating in this board from the beginning and I have never, ever seen a comment deleted because it was a hard question or negative or critical of the company -- depending on the validity of the comment, that poster might receive varying degrees of responses from other posters but never has one been deleted on those grounds and, frankly, I am kind of offended for the many people running this board now and who have run it in the past to suggest otherwise.

     

    In fact, there is only one poster who gets deleted consistently who continually re-incarnates himself with different aliases to disrupt, disrespect, attack and malign other posters on this board. He has to couch his hatred at first with insincere comments, but he is there and his agenda is clear.

     

    The last thing anyone wants this place to become is a breeding ground for uninformed, uneducated, empty, personal attacks against other posters.

     

    Freya's attack on JP is exactly that, it has absolutely nothing to do with Axion Power or the stock today and if anyone has questions for JP or old worn-out uneducated conspiracy theories they should feel free to contact him outside of this forum -- I find it boring, tawdry and a waste.

     

    Lastly, someone responding to a poster with a negative question and characterizing their post as "grasping at negative straws" does not seem out of the ordinary in the slightest in a forum that has a free exchange of ideas. I was as disappointed as anyone else, including the poster who said it, that the other poster decided to leave because of it.
    21 May 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    I have had my comments deleted on SA along with numerous other renegades but they were by SA administration not the administrators of these user blogs unless permission was requested and granted and that has happened only once that I know of.

     

    If you do not care for the "opinion" at least do not ignore if off hand because some times the "devils advocate" can cause folks to look at another angle and learn something they might have over looked. I am probably preaching to the choir on that however, with the folks here.

     

    Sorry to put in my two cents here but I just could not help it since the deletion of mine and others past comments was censorship and it really did piss off the renegades. In fact it was SA administration censorship that caused us to get the name renegades.
    21 May 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • battman
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    Well said jak.
    21 May 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Every board I've ever used has had some trolls and posters who are routinely inaccurate. This one has way fewer than most, which speaks to the wonderful job of policing done by us and the moderator/SA. I do wish we had an Ignore feature, though, as a kind of personalized, final clean-up device.
    21 May 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Mercy and Freya (since this post is mostly about Freya)
    I agree that constructive critique is healthy. However, I have a problem with posters who appear from time to time and make comments from negative assumptions, flaunt relationships, and make unfounded accusations and personal attacks.

     

    Freya's comment about Axion cashflow "... they managed to use/lose around $10.6 mil between the 2 equivalent periods of time." comes from a negative and false assumption that having less cash on the Balance Sheet from one year to the next is bad. If the money was wasted, I would agree with this. However, if the money was spent on capital investment, research and development, developing marketing channels, etc, then it is hard to characterize it as wasted money. Again - I know it has been stated 100 times on this board - negative cash flow in a transition company is hardly unusual. A more compelling argument, on Freya's part, would have been had she outlined why the negative cash flow was bad in Axion's case.

     

    Freya also wrote “JP, you were more than a Director when Axion came into existence. Tell everyone How many shares you had, what your Title was and what you did with those shares.” If Freya’s wishes to make accusations, they should be based on facts, which she does not seem willing to do, or is unable to provide them. I view this as a personal attack.

     

    A third comment with which I take issue with Freya is “ I have a recourse.

     

    This was provided by David Jackson:

     

    If your comments are being unfairly removed from articles, the person responsible for that is the head of our comment moderation team, Rachel Tova Rott. You can contact her here: seekingalpha.com/user/...

     

    Daring APH to delete her comments when it seems that it was SA that did it originally, and then flaunting her relationship with SA is hardly in the spirit of healthy criticism. Freya’s providing this contact only says to me that she has had problems in the past.

     

    Positive and negative opinions and analysis is welcome. If something is going south, I would like to be the first to know about it. However, hard questions should come from quality assumptions and not result in personal attacks and unfounded accusations.

     

    metroneanderthal
    21 May 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    bravo metro
    21 May 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,
    I have no issue with accepting the good facts and all the bad facts that exist about Axion. I have no problem discussing any point about Axion. I wrote the article about the risk of Axion for just that reason.

     

    I simply do not understand why Freya didn't ask JP to explain his history with Axion without the accusatory tone and negative twist.
    He seems pleasant enough to hold a non confrontational conversation.

     

    I found it rather funny that she was threatening JP with the SA police. I mean really. Who might have more weight to throw around at SA if he really wanted to. The "inside" part of my statement was simply poking fun.
    21 May 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    "He seems pleasant enough to hold a non confrontational conversation".

     

    And, after all, being a lawyer and all ... ;-))

     

    Brings back a story.

     

    When I was running my own business, I had quite a few clients in that profession.

     

    One week every body was gone.

     

    One of the customers wandered in late that week and I asked where everybody was.

     

    He replied that that there was a convention in Myrtle Beacch, SC.

     

    I blurted out "Talk about your shark-infested waters"!

     

    He about fell down laughing.

     

    I'd not been known for my tact in my younger days.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Understand, Futurist.
    Thanks,
    mj
    21 May 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Interesting student report discussing start/stop implementation on a university campus and citing JP

     

    Students of Sustainable Solutions Consulting

     

    http://bit.ly/LlHJT3
    21 May 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that the study Stefan cites from U of Colorado talks at length about the need for micro-hybrid technology for large diesel vehicles such as shuttle buses. Does anyone know of stop-start technology developments for large vehicles? Transit buses stop very frequently.
    This article finds the city of Ottawa looking for solutions for the problem of wasteful idling in the city's transit bus fleet. For example, the buses are left to run all night in cold weather.
    http://bit.ly/LbxukL
    21 May 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    D_Lane: A lot of places are converting, over time, to hybrid (series) or PEV buses.

     

    Proterra and Designline, and others I forget about now, offer a lot of configurations.

     

    Also, a lot are converting to NG diesel.

     

    My *feeling* is that s/s on buses would have a quickly declining market as traditional pure diesel drive lines become less and less in quantity over time.

     

    This is happening around the world - I'm aware of projects in Russia, Dubai, ... as well as many cities here in the U.S.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1539) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. I am excited about the potential of pure EV buses (makes more immediate sense than EV autos given fixed routes etc.) as well as series hybrids, but the market adoption is very slow and diesel buses still dominate--even the new sales. It would be an exciting retrofit option. I don't understand batteries enough to know if a PbC retrofit could be designed as a drop-in for this market.Would love to see PbC tried in a hybrid bus or micro-hybrid. Anyone know if the PbC would be a good fit, at least in theory?
    22 May 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    With the frequent stop/start profile of buses, and pretty large hotel load, a traditional IC-based bus ought to be at least a good candidate for investigation.

     

    The weight offers a lot of regenerative braking potential, so my first thought is the PbC might be an ideal fit.

     

    There are some periods of much longer duration stops though, so getting the sizing of the battery packs correct, as for as energy goes, would seem quite important.

     

    If a traditional LA battery or super-capacitor handled the starting loads, should work out pretty well I would think.

     

    I can see one additional benefit *if* a large-enough pack of PbCs could be fitted - (very brief) e-assist on pull away from a stop. This would allow a smaller IC engine to be used in areas where there's not substantial grade considerations.

     

    'Course, not being an engineer, I could be all wet here.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Anyone know what this is?

     

    http://bit.ly/KFJU90~/media/sbir/pdf/docs/...

     

    Mentions Axion under -

     

    TOPIC: Selected Energy Efficiency Technologies
    21 May 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    It looks like Axion may have just won a small ($150,000) DOE Small Business Innovation Research grant. While the link you provided was broken, an HTML version of the document you referenced is available here:

     

    http://bit.ly/MACBQE

     

    The "Last modified" tag at the bottom of the page is dated May 17th.

     

    The Funding Opportunity Announcement for FY 2012 Phase 1 (Release 2) is here.

     

    http://bit.ly/K4kXBm

     

    It specifies on page 22 that selections for awards will be completed by mid-to-late May 2012.

     

    The number isn't huge, but even a little recognition is appreciated from time to time. I just pray that it's not enough to bring the *DOE Grant Curse* into play.

     

    I HEREBY NOMINATE STEFAN AS THE APC'S 5-STAR INVESTIGATIVE SURFER OF THE WEEK.
    21 May 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    lol, thanks. Maybe we should submit another foia on the application ... Brishwain?
    21 May 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    John, the curse is only attached to loans most of the time? And they have to be multi-million in size to an outfit with substantial "inside the beltway" influence.

     

    This gleaned from (a faux) "voodoogurutoyou.com" special reading of the bones and, with a substantial donation to their "favorite charity", includes a promise of no pins in the Axion Power doll.

     

    I hereby second the nomination of Stefan.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2662) | Send Message
     
    Axion is potentially eligible for another 1M in funding -

     

    Phase II – Phase II is the principal R&D effort, and only previous DOE Phase I grantees will be eligible to compete for subsequent Phase II continuation of their Phase I projects. Phase II awards are expected to be made during fiscal year 2013 to small businesses with approaches that appear sufficiently promising as a result of the Phase I effort. Phase II grant awards are expected to be in amounts up to $1,000,000. The period of performance under Phase II will depend on the scope of the effort, but normally will not exceed 24 months. Approximately fifty percent of Phase I awardees submitting a Phase II application will successfully receive a Phase II award.
    21 May 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Interesting to note that the application is specifically for designing an LA/PbC two battery system in a micro-hybrid. So Axion seems to be focusing on the two battery model.
    21 May 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The two battery solution solves a lot of automaker problems like the airport test and is easy to implement with the PbC.
    21 May 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    What's the chances of having it incorporated in a single case?

     

    ISTM that packaging density would help the auto makers. Add a divider inside some standard-sized case, maybe a couple extra lugs, ...

     

    Over/under inside a taller package, maybe like a vertically divided 30HT?

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The cost of building two different batteries in a single case would be huge. Besides, the economies of having a small flooded battery under the hood for the starter with a larger PbC in the trunk is far more cost effective by the time you include wiring and electronic control costs.
    21 May 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I can see where you're going with the 'Dual Pack" strategy as there would be some savings such as wiring, pack material and labor at the final assy plant.

     

    The thing I hate about it the most is that it reminds me of that perios where electronics companies tried to use the same strategy with things like TV's with integral VCR's. The reason I hate this strategy is the the discrete elements have different life cycles. I'd hate like heck to have to throw my PBC battery away because the little 60 USD flooded attachment served it's useful life.
    21 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: good point. I'll counter with this.

     

    With a PbC available to do it's job, a truly awesome BMS provided by you-know-who, and the conventional LA part having only to carry intermittent starter loads, the conventional portion should have a much longer lifetime that past experience might suggest, as it should almost never have to carry hotel loads.

     

    Ergo (I love the way that sounds), no (or a much slower development of) sulfation problems should allow that part to last much longer than normal as there would be very few, and short duration, forays far from 100% SOC. And with the BMS I would expect, "cell balancing" might be built in as well, further reducing the LA issues.

     

    Still have any issues related to what JP points out though. But I suspect only the *development" of that process would be "hugely expensive". The *implementation* of it *might* be relatively inexpensive to folks the size of JCI et al.

     

    Not an engineer though, so I'm likely wrong about that.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    HTL, What you say is true. Given the strengths of the two technologies they should support each other enjoying a longer life servicing our needs. The one problems that stands out for me though is that this relationship is not a strong and supportive one under all conditions of their intended use profile in automotive. It's surely true for the majority of people the majority of the time. However, since these different chemistries are not two peas in a pod, they have different weaknesses which will be played at some level over their functional lives. For instance the flooded battery will still suffer sulfation when the user takes their two week trip to take care of things like business or R&R. Just one example of many I'm sure but you get my point.

     

    BTW, A few other reasons off the top of my head.

     

    o John is absolutely right. You'd throw away, the number two reason for me anyway, why Axion has a higher level to succeed. That is the fact that much of the billion of dollars that has been invested for VRLA batteries remains viable. The PBC architecture is complementary to extending and enhancing the life cycle of this chemistry.

     

    o Having two pieces that are smaller are easier to package in a very dense automotive package. Hat's off to the engineer that used to handle automotive injection molded and blow molded washer bottle assemblies I worked with. You know each one is special because....there's no damn room. His counter was always...."The batteries are pretty much all the same!

     

    o Timing. If you take these guys as individuals and make them siamese twins there will be interactions and the whole validation cycle starts over for many industries.

     

    o You take a package that the industry is use to and make it a hybrid they are not used to. Also the flooded/VRLA footprint becomes specific to automotive and really has no place in all the other wonderful things we mention as potential targets. So you're fragmenting your capacity which increases costs.

     

    Anyway, Just a few things to think about.

     

    P.S. Ergo is OK by me. Just don't use it too often. The last thing we need is a well respected contributor turning into is an Ergo Maniac.
    21 May 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Iindelco. Re "Timing. If you take these guys as individuals and make them siamese twins there will be interactions and the whole validation cycle starts over for many industries."

     

    In my thoughts they are only packaged together - no electrical paths between them at all. Does the concern for (re)testing still apply then?

     

    Re "Ergo Maniac": My long-lost brother!!! :-)) I give you a big "groan" for that one!

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    "In my thoughts they are only packaged together - no electrical paths between them at all. Does the concern for (re)testing still apply then?"

     

    HTL, Yes, Absolutely. How extensive the testing would need to be depends of the path the parties involved (OEM, suppliers etc.) wish to lay out based on risk analysis and many other tools. The auto industry has change methodology procedures to manage this. It could be as simple as paperwork updates or a full blown validation. In the case of the extensive change you mention it would be a full blown validation for sure. I'll mention just a few reasons why but I'm not an expert on the component but I can assure you what I mention would be the tip of the iceberg..

     

    o Stresses on the battery pack combo. Surely you will recognize that when you take two things and unitize them the whole package gets stressed differently. Not only in the vehicle but also during processing and shipping.

     

    o Production capacity at the final assembly level is all new so you'd have to qualify new molds, larger molding machines, new assembly lines for final battery packs, new shipping containers etc. New run at rate and validation plans for all. And don't forget ergonomic studies and final assembly plant line rebalance. All would have to be laid out in a plan before any money was spent and all the parties would be asking "What's in it for me?"

     

    The first word out of OEM purchasings mouth would be (What's in it for me?).. I now have a bunch of options where I can get commodity flooded lead acid batteries anywhere in the world with the guys beating the crap out of each other to reduce price / please me and you want to make a special battery I can only get from xyz company. Boo hiss. Just the start of the stak holders comments.

     

    Large scale auto makers love it when they have many strong players selling the same thing all over the world. Gives them a large hammer which they rarely need to use because the component suppliers are vicious.

     

    Even if the plans were laid out and agreed to I'd bet 3 to 4 years for implementing this at best. Just with the tiny bit I brought up the chance for this one is two lotteries for the same person in a year type odds.

     

    Just a flavor to build on my earlier post.
    21 May 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Iindelco.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    No problem HTL, In the end the auto companies are very cautious with such things for many many reasons. It takes a very complex system to bring everything we see and don't see together to provide what we call a passenger vehicle.

     

    Make a mistake on a 0.10 USD part in the right place and it turns into a 100 million USD oops very quickly. I've witnessed many in my life from the inside and they are very painful indeed.

     

    If I could leave you with the bright side of this exchange you should recognize very quickly how impressive where Axion is in light of how hard it is to try to change from the old tried and true. What the automakers need is available but at too high a price point. That little Axion is where it is in the process with something that fits the need at what must be a reasonable price point is very impressive. I really can't do justice in emphasizing how impressive it really is to me having lived as a little fish in the automotive stew. There has to be a pretty big hole with a darn large gap to have them hunting in New Castle.

     

    Doesn't insure success for the product or Axion but a lot of very talented people see something on the supplier side and the manufacturers see it as well. Unfortunately, given the risks given the magnitude of the business, it takes what seems to be forever.

     

    See everyone in the morning for another round of head scratching.
    21 May 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    happy to do it if there is anything we might want to see in it
    22 May 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I have never seen a reasonable "negative" remark deleted. By reasonable I mean based on facts or simply stating an honest opinion. I have certainly not been a poster child recently but no one has deleted my remarks.

     

    I take exception to "losing" 8M or whatever the number cited. There was a heck of a lot of capital spending last year. One of the hardest demands of growing a business is spending money where it is needed like Cap-X when money is tight. Smart businesses do it regardless of the pain.

     

    I've also crossed intellectual swords a few times with JP but I do not doubt his personal integrity. Attacking JP with sinister remarks is completely uncalled for. 6 years of holding his stake in Axion is about as hard a row to hoe as I can imagine. I'll disagree with JP at times, but anything beyond that is over the line.
    21 May 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    BW: "spending money where it is needed like Cap-X when money is tight. Smart businesses do it regardless of the pain".

     

    An excellent point that could also be applied to investing - a la "blood in the streets".

     

    A great number of folks here view the "unreasonable" price weakness as "opportunities".

     

    Just as a business might take the opportunity to acquire resources at depressed prices knowing they will be accretive to the business later.

     

    A great example was the acquisition of the battery plant by Axion.

     

    (NAT) buys ships in those situations (although their method of financing those acquisitions might be questioned, that's another issue).

     

    Having said that, different folks have different strategies and yardsticks they use to drive their decisions. I personally welcome all comments, negative or positive, given in a context of informing, questioning, raising unaddressed issues, ...

     

    Just coming and hammering someone doesn't seem productive though.

     

    Ditto for replies that are name calling or strongly implying name calling.

     

    MNSHO,
    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Dick Tracy
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Having spent some time with this blog as an observer for a while I must say the shift in the overall attitude of the group recently is a bit disturbing for someone trying to weigh the pros and cons of owning this stock. What once seemed like a confident group of happy-go-lucky investors waiting for their big payoff seems to have become something of a bickering bunch no longer all that sure of Axion's future and/or promise of positive returns. After perusing entries in here since early this year I am more likely to watch a bit longer from the sidelines on this one.
    21 May 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I think that is a valid comment. As for when to invest I think we are probably at a bottom for a while, but you can always board the train further down the line. Today's commentary is highly unusual so I wouldn't put much stock in it.

     

    There is much more of a "show me the money" attitude than previously, but it has been a very hard year since the last Annual meeting when this group was formed. The business is progressing fine and hopefully in time the stock will reflect that reality.
    21 May 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Dick Tracy: a social media group will act just like social groups in any venue. I think you've mis-read the tenor. Short term frustrations will bubble up occasionally.

     

    Also, consider sources. Some "fly by" comments shouldn't be given the same weight as comments by those of folks that have "dug deep" and weathered the storms.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    ...and my point about the great re-incarnator. The guy has 6 comments and has had an SA id for 5 days and he is going to comment on the "tenor" of the group.

     

    Need I remind anyone it has been about 5 days since we last saw our hockey friend, Jim_Turner, and before that Jackstraw1, and before that TonyMontana9 and before that thesilverbullet.

     

    Now, I doubt APH will delete any "Dick Tracy" comments because he is just oh so sincere in his remarks and the last thing anyone apparently wants is APH to be "unfair"...right?

     

    "More likely to watch from the sidelines" Seriously? HOW MANY TIMES ARE YOU GOING TO WRITE THE SAME F'ING THING!!!
    21 May 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    jak, spot on. Beginning to think there are some clinical issues involved there. Probably an Rx test subject himself, seems like pharma would be a better house for him to haunt, having evidently quite a lot of first hand experience with their wares...
    21 May 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Ksz6Fq
    21 May 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: thanks for that. Been a long time since I heard it.

     

    Hearing stuff like that again makes me feel like I'm many years less along ... as long as I avoid the mirrors in the house.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1539) | Send Message
     
    I gotta take exception with your insinuation here. Someone being sneaky (and I agree, I think Dick Tracy is being disingenuous) should not be carelessly described as having "clinical issues". Your comment is insensitive to many good people who are already stigmatized. For example, people prescribed medications.

     

    Also, I agree with the mantra of don't feed the trolls.
    21 May 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    Dr. prescribed fine. People prescribed....I might want to question that. LOL
    21 May 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10198) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Close your eyes, after you take an aspirin if necessary to hit one of the many needy targets, and take a moment to smile. Actually, some of the best moments are the one's that are thrown your way because you didn't think of it in advance.
    21 May 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Ah, D. Lane - IMO the last thing we really want to do is dip our toes *too* deeply into the waters of PC.

     

    I think a little slack in the area of PC is reasonable.

     

    But, that's only *my* opinion and I've never cared as much about others' opinions as much as for my own. So I *could* be off-base. Slippery-slope and all that.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: No aspirin needed. I've been blessed with decent genes, a history of strong exercise in the form of physical games (after all, why "work out" when you can just go play with the kids all the time) and a healthy diet, even if I have one *nasty* vice still - smoking.

     

    If I'll get my butt out of this chair a few times a day, I should have many more years of no need for aspirin.

     

    OTOH, plastic surgery ... But I don't have enough vanity for that.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    dick: "After perusing entries in here since early this year I am more likely to watch a bit longer from the sidelines on this one."

     

    Are you seriously basing your investment decisions on the recent tone of a blog ??
    22 May 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Dick Tracy
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    WOW! Twelve posts since my last visit and about 75% bleed of pure paranoia and negativity. I haven't signed up and commented in here until now for just this reason. This is somewhat of a nasty bunch on a good day but you have outdone yourselves on this particular day. As for basing my investment on the tone in here, that is your assumption CO3 not a fact. I base investment decisions on a wide variety of criteria but gaining insight about a company and attitudes toward that company is very much an asset in the investigative process. Observing what a company does, or doesn't do, how the stock behaves and yes, definitely, what stockholders have to say are all valuable tools in evaluating an investment.

     

    Axion has clearly been and will be for some time a speculative investment which of course is high-risk. Watching it's stockholders squirm and take on an almost cut-throat demeanor with each other is both very revealing and quite entertaining. Had I observed a group with enthusiasm and exciting ideas regarding the future I certainly would have taken that as good reason to stay close by this company just as watching and reading the non-eventful year Axion has had while it's most prolific investors slowly but surely display frustration and even anger is a very good indicator as to the direction this company is headed.

     

    A good investigator gathers much of his information by simply standing back silently and observing his surroundings, a practice that for me has shed a bright light on this group and this company. Lots of frustration in here is quite clear even to the point of taking it out on a complete stranger after two or three very general entries. In just this edition of your blog (#103) you have offered a wealth of information about Axion and the people who closely follow and invest in it. I have enjoyed the show so far and plan on taking another step back to see what additional entertainment is provided. Losing money is always frustrating and based on recent activities in here, my guess is that a significant amount of money has been lost while many of you ponder what the best course of action is moving forward. I wish you all good luck with that process. Meantime, I'll hold on to my money and enjoy the rest of the show.
    22 May 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    props dick. i was reading those comments yesterday and thinking how bad this concentrator was getting trolled. a good troll lets others do the work for them and you've certainly accomplished that here.
    23 May 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA): Just being public - added long 5 June $27 calls this A.M. @ $2.05. Currently bid/ask up to $2.25-$2.45 and TSLA just broke above $28.

     

    The $29 calls are currently underwater as the downdraft during options expiration week outlasted all such runs by TSLA price but two in the last year.

     

    As I mentioned, buying during that week was risky. I could have gotten the $29 calls about $0.55 cheaper.

     

    Anyway, price is turning now and I expect halting rise in price over the next couple weeks.

     

    Should come out OK, overall.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Closed the $27 calls at $2.65, +26.2% friction included, for a couple hour trade. (TSLA) pps *should* come back to ~$28 today or tomorrow and I plan on going long on them again around ~$2.30 or so.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Something to read:
    http://bit.ly/LaXywu
    Carlos.
    21 May 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    DOE 150K grant.

     

    Axion Power International Inc.
    3601 Clover Lane
    New Castle, PA 16105-

     

    Project Title:
    Development of High Charge Acceptance PbC® Batteries for Low Cost, High Efficiency Micro Hybrid Vehicles

     

    Project Summary:
    This project will investigate the potential for high efficiency low-cost micro-hybrids by combining the features of their patented lead-carbon PbCÒ battery with a standard lead–acid battery. This dual-mode approach to micro-hybrid vehicle architecture has the potential to significantly increase the fuel efficiency and lower CO2 emissions without significantly increasing costs.

     

    Super opportunity to demonstrate Axion's white paper stop start solution.
    21 May 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    It will be interesting to see whether Axion's management thinks this small DOE award is important enough to merit a press release.
    21 May 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if this project is an element of the set of "other things, which I can't talk about..."
    21 May 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz, do you have a link? I just checked the google but came up with nothing.

     

    D
    21 May 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Honestly i hope not. Maybe mention it at the shareholders meeting. But to put out a small grant like that ?? I don't see any upside beside desperation. I believe it's best kept quiet.

     

    I might also add that some postings are getting too personal imho and i think you folks should get back on track. This isn't the time to start up personal battles, and i have had a few with some.

     

    So take my 2 cents and do what you want. But Freyas comment should stay aboard as far as i am concerned. Let the readers and investors decide what to make of it

     

    JP, No need to defend yourself as far as i am concerned. You insight is invaluable ...

     

    map
    21 May 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The original catch by Stephan Moroney is here: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My follow-up message with a full set of DOE links is here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 May 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2812) | Send Message
     
    John and Freya,

     

    I am a financial novice, so please look at these questions as from curiosity, not as an attack. My questions are trying to learn how public reporting works, and not trying to criticize JP. Obviously he has done a magnificent job explaining the business and financial sude of Axion, for which I am grateful.

     

    Looking at the JP's records on j3sg site, I see some 10m share transactions early on. This seems completely consistent with the reverse merger JP has described, and has no meaningful financial impact.

     

    Starting on 2004 thru Feb 2009, I see JP bought stock and exercised options, eventually acquiring c. 400,000 shares.

     

    JP mentioned he purchased 1 m preferred stock, which does not seem to appear on the j3sg site. Curious, why does that not show?

     

    Freya, I am confused by your posts. JP, is there anything on the j3sg site that is materially incorrect regarding your positions?

     

    Why all the venom?
    21 May 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... Why all the venom? Indeed. I've wondered why this little backwater company has such a large cadre of really dedicated haters. I expect some no matter where you go, but Axion seems to have a disproportional share. It has always been thus and has never made much sense to me.
    21 May 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    The preferred stock purchase did not show up on the J3SG site because it was a private placement of convertible securities. The purchase was properly reported on Form 8-K (http://1.usa.gov/K2Vf04) and an associated Form 4 (http://1.usa.gov/Jj6Avq), but it didn't become a common stock transaction till I converted the preferred in late 2009 when I was no longer a director, officer or 10% stockholder.

     

    There is nothing on the J3SG site that's factually inaccurate. The conclusions Freya tried to draw from those facts were wildly inaccurate.
    21 May 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I will ignorantly reply with no due diligence that I believe ALL the Axion preferred shares were exchanged for common stock with the 26M capital raise in 2009. There are no more preferred shares.

     

    I am ready for this conversation to end. It is useless and a total waste of time. Taking a break until this moronic discussion is over.
    21 May 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... I'd hate for you to just give up because we've collectively gone all moronic. As long as we're being all trollishly shirty, plain rude, naval gazing and all, allow me to throw this out there for consideration to just clear the deck and get my "moronic" out of my system.

     

    I know well the arguments put out in the forum; the company is executing well ... R&D phase ... disruptive technology ... potential markets are huge ... puddles (or lakes) of shares ... funds relentless selling ... yada, yada. There is something wrong with the trading. Just what is it that keeps the share price down?

     

    I for one don't see the selling as being too heavy. I'm glad to see SS back and the selling continue and maybe even get a little larger in volume. It is lopsided to the downside and I don't like that, but why? This little quandary seems to perplex us. Could the answer be that Axion has exhausted its speculative "Venture" buyer. Both retail & fund. I've had it put to me that that is exactly what we're looking at in the charts. The reason, for all the good about product, markets & company, is that there is no market based visiblity to Axion to entice the next tier of "Market" speculative buyer. Buyers are what the stock needs and that next market step is not defined ... well, maybe to us, but unless y'all want to keep buying and be the market, something has got to give.

     

    If Axion were developing an orphan drug it would have a known market of potential buyers and could be valuated on that basis. Any news making progress toward meeting the needs of that market would bring in the next level of buyer ... and pop goes the share price. Axion doesn't have that and didn't until that slip-up mentioning a given quantity of rail product. The next tier of buyers might just be waiting for market defining news from a more "official" source. The PbC might be great. The markets might be huge. Solution do exist to meet industry needs with product already in the market or under development by established concerns. Like any business, you have to know what your customers wants and the share price action might be saying "Show Me". I think we stay in this wallow until then.

     

    Thanks to those that gave me feedback on my last RFI on "fair value. I'm off to be with my buddy ... the Paint.
    21 May 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    I've wondered why, too. When I asked the board at Brand X, a couple of replies mentioned the nasty, protracted, not yet 100.00% settled battle for the PbC intellectual property rights (I think that's what they were saying, but it was always a bit unclear exactly), which provided enough cause for ugly posts which continue to this day.

     

    That being said, STILL not sure. It's usually "follow the money", but it's hard for me to think that through--no short interest, so no direct gain. Competitors hiring bashers? That's such a bank shot of value, I'm skeptical. Trying to influence a judge's/jury's decision? Almost zero value with such a currently off-the-radar company as Axion. Try to tank the stk price, so the asset can be purchased cheap? Crazily unrealistic, seems to me.

     

    I could easily be missing something here, but if not, then you're only left with emotional reasons, aka revenge. That usually dies down much more quickly than this has, though.

     

    So, someone in the know care to comment?
    21 May 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Great weed-whacking there DR!

     

    We need that new expanded concentric ring of potential buyers to become aware and then become convinced.... it's gonna happen-- things are going to move, both on the rails and in the automotive space.... they have to, time stays on the march, and is catching up to them... but right now we, we're still deep in that cold, still hour, where the endless black seems doomed never again to know the dawn..
    21 May 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2432) | Send Message
     
    The very last post is incorrect, it was filed very,very late, John explained this years ago.

     

    We never purchased this company because of the technicals, did not like the way the chart looked. The Insider site wasn't bookmarked til later.

     

    And having seen what Lead poisoning can do, i'd rather go with something else. In that vein, it is very personal.

     

    It won't stop me from Investing in an environment unfriendly stock. I'll have more to donate to environmentally friendly research.
    21 May 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    RK

     

    Agreed...
    "Obviously he has done a magnificent job explaining the business and financial sude of Axion, for which I am grateful. ... This seems completely consistent with the reverse merger JP has described, and has no meaningful financial impact....Why all the venom?"
    21 May 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Freya, first, a decent person would apologize when they realize that they were wrong and that they had falsely malinged another person's character.

     

    Second, Axion technology will be used to save a tremendous amount of fuel and reduce a tremendous amount of pollution in automotive, locomotive and grid applications.

     

    I call that pretty environmentally friendly.

     

    If you're worried about lead contamination then you should know:

     

    1) the Axion PbC battery uses 30% less lead than other lead-based batteries
    2) Lead-acid batteries are the most recycled item on the planet with 98% of their materials being recycled.

     

    So what false and/or irrelevant complaint will you come up with next?

     

    D
    21 May 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30500) | Send Message
     
    Freya and I got off to a rocky start, but I think we should all try to make nice. I appreciate your concern for my feelings D but I've grown a pretty thick skin these last few years.
    21 May 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    BW...agreed...

     

    "I am ready for this conversation to end. It is useless and a total waste of time. Taking a break until this moronic discussion is over."

     

    Though unnecessary to me, glad to read John quash the personal integrity attack, again, in his usual inimitable style.
    Reaffirms my read of JP's transparency and no hidden agenda.

     

    It is also an anecdotal lesson in investment history.
    21 May 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    In my last instablog
    " Riskd of owning Axion" http://bit.ly/J09nWy

     

    I discussed this issue. If you read the article linked " Axion- against all odds" http://bit.ly/IgjJVT

     

    you will discover that the original purchasers of the Axion patents were stock scam artist that never paid for the patents. So, a few well heeled smart investors formed Axion to buy the patents and keep the company alive.

     

    All the dread is from the original scam artist that refuse to accept facts for what they are.He never accomplished his goal. All investors did receive some Axion stock, in trust, as a settlement in bankruptcy. That wasn't good enough so the scoundrel spent most of the stock money in useless litigation making the innocent investors even poorer.
    But the humiliation to this shark has eaten at his psychic for years. Now he is the internet scoundrel we all denigrate because of his psychotic internet behavior.
    21 May 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Freya is an experienced investor as several other people here can attest better than I.

     

    Freya, I simply don't understand your critiques. You're speaking in clipped allusions and insinuations. If you have a cogent direct statement to make, please make it. If you do not, what is your point here? Are you suggesting investing in Axion is like being a loyal fan of Milli Vanillii http://bit.ly/KZqpqJ ? Why?
    21 May 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Nice post. I have been thinking over the last few weeks, but can only speak for myself, that maybe many Axionistas have reached their comfortable risk/reward profile. As Poul initially drew my attention to the number of APH followers, I've been watching this number as an indication of potential interest from a "next tier of buyers". The numbers have been increasing, albeit relatively slowly in whole numbers.
    22 May 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >metroneanderthal ... I thank you & 481086 for the kind reviews. I've also thought about pushing the "Follow" button, just can't bring myself to do it.
    22 May 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I suffered through years of alcoholism, drug and sexual addiction, multiple arrests, and many broken relationships, due to the downfall of Milli Vanilli. Nothing has been able to replace them.
    22 May 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >metroneanderthal ... In the words of Bill Clinton "I feel ya, brother" I've been trying for years to get back to that simple life just so things would make sense again. Just couldn't afford it but it is part of my plan from the vast wealth that Axion will bring to me.
    22 May 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (501) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the next concentrator ---->

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 May 2012, 03:39 PM