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"Let me say that again. I'm going to tell you how to get the United States completely off oil and coal 5 trillion dollars cheaper with no active congress led by business for profit. On other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions, private enterprise co-evolving with civil society and sped by military innovation to go around our least effective institutions and whether you care most about profits and jobs and competitive advantage or national security or environmental stewardship and climate protection and public health, reinventing fire make sense and makes money."
OT (personal stuff in response to personal question)
Oh no. I'm not "done moving" until mid-June... maybe.
My desire to get rid of stuff is getting higher.
- Drive the moving truck from VA to FL Thursday & Friday. - Unload the moving truck over the weekend. - Reload the truck from storage units two hours south of our house middle of next week. - Unload the truck 2nd & 3rd times into the house and new storage units nearby Thursday next week. - Then a PODS unit arrives Friday next week (in 10 days). Unload that too. - Then... we start to get close to being done moving.
Wish there was a daily Axion cliff notes concentrator :-P... but the 200 odd message I'm behind will be good bedtime reading.
Its an OK video of a 35 year plan with no exact proposals.
It appears his solution is to allow the private companies to prove their worth, but somewhere Government must support the long range plan of changing the current industry of energy supply and yet support the energy storage market while making sure the evil oil empire does not lower its price and muck up the 35 year plan.
hadn't looked at PRPCF in a while... wow, what a beatdown... a quick look seems to indicate it continues to trade basically at the value of its 43% stake in PNIKF (essentially valuing PRPCF's other holdings at zero)...
to speculate... this might be a good time...
to invest... they need a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) from the gov't in hand... and they need around $700 million in financing in hand (exact numbers are in my article about the company... I don't remember off hand... all I can think about is boxing stuff)
Hope that helps... If not, ask more questions... though perhaps better to ask in the Mongolia Weekly Update blog - http://bit.ly/sNjhw1 - which has my priority attention at the moment... versus other stuff where I'm just trying to hang on
Fut' > "...somewhere Government must support the long range plan of changing the current industry of energy supply and yet support the energy storage market while making sure the evil oil empire does not lower its price and muck up the 35 year plan."
:-) ..."sped by military innovation." Amory Lovins is in the business of hawking energy efficiency/energy productivity solutions and, in my experience, is as personally opportunistic, studiously obtuse, and number gerrymandering as the highest profile proponents of CAGW (catastrophic antopogenic global warming).
Point taken...lacking "exact proposals"...but, my thoughts:
Interesting view of the myriad of opportunities that are being pursued by many. Some consistent factors raised by JP and commenters..."epidemic obesity" in car weight (re TSLA)...need for energy efficiency...desire to reduce wasteful subsidies...(circumvent least effective institutions (re government/politicians... of electricity generated from oil (?)...almost half electricity generated from coal...75% of oil fuels transportation...75% electricity powers buildings...NATGAS as a bridge energy source...thought provoking stats.
Having stated that, missing or lack from presentation (or I missed it):
Energy storage "Shift to EV"...but no link how 2050 Plan...easier said than done...many wild card variables...government...
Reaffirms my confidence in the ability of the USA and other countries to actually make progress in our energy needs. (witness...AXPW)
Thanks for getting my point. Way to many variables for anyone to say " Hey, I can solve our oil problem just doing a few simple things." He is all hope and mirrors. The real work is being done by businesses figuring out the clean tech revolution.
HTL. I see we finished even for the day but I see that most of the larger orders happened above .35. Is there an indicator that would give me the volume weighted PPS for the day rather than a moving average? I can't seem to find it in my limited tools but would sure like to know that number at the end of each day...
This gets updated between close of a day and open of the next day, *normally*, with commentary and thoughts added. I've not updated it for today yet, although I could. But I prefer to have some thought and comments to go along with it.
Other than that, I've recently started trying to post EOD stats in comments here. So, since you asked and I just happened to finish adding daily short sales into my spreadsheets a few minutes before I wandered over here again ...
Everything (and more?) that you might want to know about intra-day stuff I track (stuff I don't track not included, even if you want to know about them! :-)) ((-:
Looking at my charts, the early signs *if* (*if* *if*) I'm right about what my charts show is that we may not start a small move up. Expect a possible resistance at $0.37, but if we break there $0.40-$0.42 is a certainty IMO.
Reinforcemnet for this has begun to appear (but still very early) on the traditional charts in the form of a "doji" candlestick Friday followed by signs of "I'm getting ready to bust a move - but don't ask which way".
I have an opinion as to direction but for the moment I'll be mum (I know, I know - cross-dressing as a British mother is frowned upon in this neck of the woods, especially amongst truckers >:-)P
HTH, HardToLove
EDIT! Corrected a typo on max price, VWAP. WVAP affected by to 30K+ orders $0.3575/$0.356.
I thought it looked like the buys were close to .36. Thanks HTL and this trucker thinks you can dress as you like! whatever blows your skirt up as they say...
Well I read it the way you intended so what does that say for me? I agree because who would sell under .35 but the folks who bought in Dec? in other words US...
I have to agree with D Rich, that we are missing the all important next level of investor. I do not have any idea of when or how we are going to get to that level without either a stock 1:5 or a $50m sales order.
Every time it looks like we have good news absolutely nothing happens ,and it dumbfounds me. My only concern is without the institutional investors heavily in this stock , it's just a roundabout and not a hockey stick handle, what am I missing that without a consolidation or a very large order, that will get us to where we all want to be, and within 18 months, as has been said here before, enough of the R and D testing, I believe the tech is well proven at this point.
It would be really nice to have a super positive AGM, with real and measurable results and/or orders announced, maybe that will help get us back on track.
My pet theory is that we already have a couple tiers of next level investors watching, lurking, doing their homework and waiting for something that will serve as a buy signal for them. Their trigger factors are all different and range from a change in the chart pattern to some fundamental business development.
I don't know whether there was any correlation, but the paint was drying very slowly yesterday until Stephen found a link to the new DOE grant. We had 50,000 shares of volume before the discovery and 200,000 afterwards.
Whenever a big seller is active it feels like Noah and the deluge. There's an interminable period of non-stop rain and gloom that suddenly ends when the seller runs out of stock. There's no advance warning, but suddenly the sun breaks through and the gloom ends. That's what makes inflection point investing so darned hard.
I don't know whether the willing sellers have 5,000 shares remaining or 5 million. I do know that it's a finite number that will be eaten down to zero sometime in the next three months. Once the sun breaks through I expect a rush to get off the fence, which is why stocks have inflection points.
I say Axion is going to have more than an inflection point, someday it's going to have an *infection* point, as in a hundred buyers suddenly screaming: "I got the fever! And the only cure is more Axion!" ;)
Even one PbC battery sale to a private enterprise for a non-test commercial application would, IMO, appreciably change market perception(s) of AXPW. It would reinforce/confirm expectations of emerging commerciality. I expect an order for, say, 3 - 5 PowerCubes for delivery this quarter or early next quarter would bump the stock price. A $50 million contract for PbCs or PbC electrodes would IMO likely give every existing AXPW holder of common or warrants multiple 100% gains on their basis.
Given the "exposure" regarding AXPW coverage via your articles and follow up blogs, I wonder what if any affect this might have on the stock buy/sell dynamic.
I would tend to concur "...that we already have a couple tiers of next level investors watching, lurking, doing their homework and waiting for something that will serve as a buy signal for them."
I would also posit that due to the number of readers/commenters, more "professional" investors are also on the fringe. Your articles and these blogs provide a ready made due diligence source and followers provide a valuable insight to the behavioral dynamics of significant AXPW stock holders.
Several followers have expressed the value and "never seen before" due diligence, history and trend of one company.
HTL, I like your idea better. Marines don't like there t-shirts copied. Just gotta make that point for my brothers. I don't want my buddys or my son pissed at me. They might not share their beer any more. LOL
As a side note should it not say "rich" or "filthy rich" on it somewhere. That is the goal after all.
I would venture to suggest that the PPS would have to be well north of $10.00 for most of us to afford the sort of litter we would all like to be associated with.
Of course I have seen some very nice ones made of bamboo which might only require the PPS to stay about $0.50. But I like most aspire to greater heights.
We are where we are today because two big stockholders - Quercus and SS - tried to squeeze out the pay window at the same time driving down the stock price to dirt and making the capital raise we all knew was coming half the desired amount and probably half the desired price. Axion didn't even have a reasonably debugged GenII line until November 2011. If it were a new start up they would be in business less than a year.
We don't need a 50M dollar sales announcement. We just need continued progress. A small DOE award to demonstrate Axion's stop start solution is wonderful. If it works well perhaps DOE will acknowledge it. NS's first field test is wonderful. I would bet there are more deals announced and signed before the next capital raise.
When you buy green bananas you can't eat them. I'm frustrated as hell with the stock, but not the business. There were plenty of recent remarks like the consecutive 300% YOY growth I just completely reject. I didn't like the off the cuff remarks about NS's plans. However, I haven't seen anything occur that would drive me to despair or cause me to sell my stock.
JP I assure you I don't believe "life is a sucking swirling eddy of despair, filled with brief moments of false hope in an ever blackening universe". I've simply arrived at a point where all I care about are the revenue numbers. The rest of it I will let others speculate about. As for the stock price today my attitude is I don't care. Around Q3 and certainly Q4 I'm going to care a lot.
Bang, I 'm sorry, but I see a DOE award as a negative. Superficially positive, but gov $$ seems to have so much biologically active slime attached it makes me uncomfortable. Sort of "You have been personally selected to share some cancer."
I strongly suspect Axion will survive the DoE grant. I want to see real, unsubsidized, energy-effective, sales. $50m will be a nice start.
Call me a cynic, but I see that whole batch of DOE awards as a calculated attempt to spend as little as possible and take the maximum amount of credit.
Most of the DOE award recipients may fail but the DOE will point at the few who succeed and say 'look what we did!'.
Not that I disagree with it. It's a hell of a lot better approach than throwing a half billion in loan guarantees at a solar company that eventually goes belly-up (ie: Solyndra).
And, for what it's worth, I'm mentally forcing myself to think the way Bang thinks to preserve my sanity.
"Disappointment is everywhere and always a function of expectations." It's ok to hope for that imminent 300% revenue growth but you set yourself up for disappointment once you begin to expect it.
I know, I know, 'hope is not a sound investment strategy'. But I hope only in the short term and I don't invest in the short term. I invest and expect in the long term.
I think anyone thinking of selling their AXPW in less than 5 years is really going to miss out. That's even if it's at $3.00 by this time next year. Because it will be $10+ in 5 years.
"I can think. I can fast. And", perhaps most important of all, "I can wait" said Siddhartha.
Rick, Axion is running on very few dollars, If the DOE wants to toss Axion a few crumbs to demonstrate its 2 battery solution described in their White Paper I find that the first award DOE has made that makes any sense to me. I am sure there are others, but they don't have a glowing track record.
The only thing I can think is that what individual OEMs have been doing on their own dimes is proprietary to them... what Axion produces under the auspices of this grant might be made more widely available... Seems to me like a good thing just for the increased visibility and enhanced legitimacy that it might bring.
One potential (likely?) reason Blackrock is rotating out of the altenergy sector (and selling off Axion with it) is government grants like this. In situations like this, where widespread failure is surging through a sector notable for wild government spending and waste, this categorization can be a negative. Do we really want to exchange huge private sellers for small government gifts?
However, the truth is that Axion is, indeed, considered an altenergy sector player, and angling for government handouts is the game as it is played.
>tripleblack ... I think your reason would take quite a stretch to believe. I can think of many solid market based reasons and a few Blackrock specific that make more sense. I'd doubt an outfit like Blackrock gives government much thought at all except as a tool.
DR: I think you just missed (but actually aided) my point. I do indeed think that Blackrock is reacting to market based reasons now - and I agree they use government as a tool - and 3 or 4 years ago they were doing the same. Markets are often influenced by government, particularly when government elects to play favorites. Back then they moved into the sector with investments like that made in Axion, based upon the strong support coming into the sector from government and the hopium prompting stocks to climb. Now that trend has reversed, that money has been absorbed into multiple nasty failures, and it is likely that they are rotating out of that sector as its prospects diminish with time and events.
Its of course also quite possible that they waited for years before acting for other reasons and that the background of billions in failed government sponsored projects in this sector is just coincidental with a change in their decision, and that they still believe the sector will be a good investment going forward...
Its all just guesswork. Its unlikely Blackrock will let us in on their decision process.
McHattie -- isn't that the whole point of this type of DoE grant -- To help fund R&D that has potential, but is risky enough that it's not being picked up by private investment?
I mean, if 100% of these grants paid off, I'd strongly criticize the grant criteria for throwing money at R&D that would have been done anyway as the risk was so miniscule! I HOPE a good percentage fails and that another good percentage pay off in the long run!
I get why people become cynical about government grants when it's so easy to turn every single failure into a hyped-up attack ad, and I get that some people philosophically want the government to fund ZERO risky R&D, but to criticize government grants for having a significant failure rate seems unfounded to me.
I would be interested in an honest comparison between long-term results of programs granted DoE money vs. Venture Capital firms in a similar field. For similar reasons, I wouldn't expect the results to be identical, but it'd sure be an interesting article!
>Deamiter ... My understanding is that private capital fails more often than it succeeds at a rate somewhere like 60-40%. Don't know for a fact if it is accurate but from watching small business around me it seems about right. I don't support the government granting establishment of business but I do support R&D and "X-Prize" competition like programs. That said, why would anyone expect government to have any better track record than the private sector?
>H.T. Love ... I don't fault you for that. I was of the same opinion about a couple little wars we got into and shoved a few Trillion dollars down a rat-hole for. It made no sense to me, but such is the will of our corporate personages.
DRich: Yep. In spite being conservative (in a *traditional* sense) in my fiscal POV and liberal (traditional sense again) in my social POV, as soon as you-know-who said "Iraq" I started to swear like a sailor.
I won't give all my reasoning, but my major thing is how easy it is for those folks to send the relatives of others off to get maimed, dead and ... for unsupportable (IMO) reasons.
My strong belief is that "information" was manipulated to provide support for the action to an unthinking populace.
While I don't want to get drawn into the middle of this debate, can you think of a single instance in the last 40 years where government has not manipulated information to gain support from an unthinking populace?
perhaps I am way over on what it takes, it just seems that even good news isn't enough, as opposed to needing really good news etc.
However, I am completely in sync with you, that I am frustrated with the stock and not necessarily the business, but that's because I've bought in many years ago at a huge multiple of where it's at today, and cannot average down even if I wanted too.
If Q3 and Q4 don't come together, I for one (at that point) will most assuredly not be a happy camper, especially if we have another ridiculously priced round of dilutive financing
Johnny, I have read all of your post and to be truthful this is what you contribute:
" I bought Axion when it was in its infancy. I hoped it would blossom into a product but I didn't know. I sat for years hoping it would be a technological winner but I am not sure. I hope that all of these projects ( BMW, NS, GM, etc) will actually ever make me even, but I don't know."
All here understand your frustration with the stock price. We all feel that.
What I don't understand is why you fail to talk about the companies successes or failures, the product"s successes or failures, or managements successes or failures. You only seem to wallow in your own stock losses like many are not in the same boat.
Please correct me if I am wrong and you have something to contribute other than an observation that the stock price ( and sky) is falling
Rambo: What an apropos ID for AXPW, fighting its own war against the malaise of misinformation, battling the big shot investment firms, battling as a pipsqueak outfit against, and yet with titans, etc.
I think that's a little early...the Q3 and Q4, the coming together part. There is that little monetary raising still hanging out there, likely in Q4. I believe come Q4 more patience will still be required.
Oooo fair Diety, I hope I'm wrong.
bang: I'll take you a little further. I'll care if Axion's pricing is still at this level, maybe a little higher, come next April or May. By then, I expect to unload 50,000 shares in the 92 to 96 range. By then, I expect Axion to be well north of a buck twenty-five. Maybe way more.
Still maintaining that anyone getting in under 42 cents owns the investment of a lifetime.
DRich> Back in APH 103 you commented "Like any business, you have to know what your customers wants and the share price action might be saying "Show Me". I think we stay in this wallow until then."
I agree with your statement and do not believe it was the least moronic. For what it is worth that is precisely where I am. There were other comments in APH 103 that met that the moronic label.
bang and Everyone: Let's just drop it. Letting you/all know that lots happened today behind the curtains. No one knows more than I do about today...why today occurred. No one. A lot of work, communication, went down today.
BW: I tried, I really did. I read it several times and said, "Let it slide". But at last the pedantic in me won out and after I stopped giggling about what you said vs. what you meant, I just had to point out the difference one little word can make,
"... do not believe it was the least moronic"
is not quite the same as
"... do not believe it was the least bit moronic". :-))
Offered in good fun so that others may experience the mirth I enjoyed, at your expense of course. :-))
From one experienced in such misstatements "hisself", HardToLove
I must be the moron. It took me three reads to finally get what HTL was saying. Very Nice catch. After reading however many comments exist on the concentrators it was refreshing to see the members having a bit of fun. Me thinks the low price per share has everyone a little edgy. Thanks for the good humor.
I think the problem right now is not AXPW-SS-Blackrock, etc., the problem is the global crisis and all actions have equal downward trend as an example FB.
H.T. Love: I agree with you. It's time to buy: When blood is in the street. Already completed several years after starting my investment in AXPW and told: "Never before has the fundamentals and prospects AXPW been better". Carlos. Have a good day!
Carlos, No question in my mind that all boats get stranded when the level of the lake gets very low. With Euro, FB, etc the lake is starting to look like a puddle.
have I missed something ? was something going on today I haven'f figured out? I agree with pretty much all of your commentary in your last message, and my belief is that anyone buying in under a buck will do just fine, not certain I will be able to develop the patience to wait beyond Q4, but nothing I can do about it but keep all digits crossed !
Unfortunately , speaking solely based on my individual situation, anything less than 2 bucks for me, this time next year will be a disaster, those who have been in at much lower prices, and for a far shorter period of time, I have zero doubt will fill their boots a plenty !
Johhny I hope you can hang in there. You and JP have been through the wringer more than anyone else in these threads followed by DRich who bought Axion when it took 2 weeks to complete the buy - four years or more ago. Most of the rest of us are noobs in the heartache and frustration department.
When I express concern for Q3 and Q4 it is coming from a perspective of how black a hole am I willing to go into at the end of December. I survived ,25 cents this year. It will depend in part on the share price. I would hate to be staring at .15 cents in Q1 2013. Most important to me is what revenues are this year and what business has been is gained, Another small fairly low figure raise wouldn't scare me off. The possibility of no capital raise at all or a 10% discount capital raise on .25 cents and I'm gone.
Yep. I will authenticate that those are lead ingots. Saw them last year, while touring the plant.
As I walked by them, I was stupefied that they were not "shrink wrapped." Open air they were, but about to be used, because, remember, I saw that small mountain of empty battery casings last year. That's where the lead bars went, into those East Penn bound batteries (supposition).
Darn those Rosewater guys and their low res. phone pics. Can't read the label.
It's amazing what you can learn walking through plants by reading information on machines and shipping labels. I can remember over the years covering such things for manufacturing plant tours.
Fishing weights are made of lead and are bought by fishermen by the millions every year. I guess I'm a goner because there was one type that was commonly fastened to a fishing line by biting down on it. Little lead balls with a split in the middle as one example. I used a lot of those when fishing years ago.
Fishing until I drop is on my bucket list. Also winning a large poker tournament even if I have to move out of the country for awhile. Seeing old and some new friends including some Axionistas one more time. At least a year with my daughter in DC. Dare I add all paid for by my Axion investment?
God I am getting old! Whatever happened to chasing women?
Has anyone mentioned that the enthusiasm for alternative energy has diminished somewhat with the bankruptcys of solar. I think the political environment has poisoned the enthusiasm for the time being so future investors are probably gun shy for now.
That should change in the future but for now its not helping the stock price and add in oil coming down. Its a strong head wind for any increase of interest or demand. Eventually there will be a shock or some catalyst that will get folks to start looking around again and then.....we will see. Dont expect it in this election year since green energy is an albatross around BO's neck and the press will probably keep the heat off by not talking about these issues as much as possible.
Thats my political take on the doldrums for the stock. It is of course only one of the things effecting it. Y'all have covered the others very well.
Just make sure you have some cheap long-dated puts. They may hit targets this year and for Q1 of next year, which will drive the EVangelicals to new heights of irrational euphoria. I still think they'll have a devil of a time finding 5,000 new customers per quarter for the long term.
John: Actually, for the puts, short-dated ones suit me better because they have a higher delta. This allows me to roll in and out more frequently, scraping profits more often, switch between puts and calls as the normal volatility causes reversal and get my "compounding" strategy executed.
I've not calculated how many more shares of AXPW are possible now from this, but I suspect in my wife's account, where I'm doing this stuff, a substantial increase would be possible if I want to go even more over-weight (Heh! Who am I kidding - it's in the cards and I know it).
As an example, the calls I'm holding (Jun $29 strikes) have a delta right now of .698. The December strikes at the same price are .645. Because they are in the money right now, they are a bit closer than they would normally be.
FYI: Level II is showing the reverse of what it showed just before we dropped into the 30's. That is, it's now showing one MM at the ask, then all the others are way higher--in the 40's actually.
"Also in the first quarter of fiscal 2010, the Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Axion Power, an advanced lead-acid development company in Newcastle, Pennsylvania."
Then another paragraph down, Exide discusses the grant but omits any mention of the grant being with Axion.
"In August 2009, the Company was awarded a $34.3 million grant by the United States Department of Energy (“DOE”) under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to increase manufacturing capacity of AGM batteries with and without advanced carbon technology. These AGM batteries are designed for Start & Stop, Micro-Hybrid and no-idle vehicle applications and enable improved fuel efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions. Our total investment including the DOE grant will be approximately $70.0 million for expansion of our Columbus, Georgia and Bristol, Tennessee facilities. Additionally, we received tax incentives from the State of Georgia of approximately $9.3 million and approximately $6.0 million from the State of Tennessee. As a result of these grants, we expect to create as many as 320 jobs and expand battery production capacity by about 1.5 million batteries per year. These investments are expected to be completed during fiscal 2012."
Will be interesting to see how this changes in the 2012 annual report.
(TSLA): Closed the $29 long call position @ $2.65 (bought @ $1.75) as it looks like today is a "sell the news on the pop". I should be able to do a couple more short-term plays over the next two days as these things *usually* go about three days.
Took 48.9% 5/17-5/22 (today), friction included.
Today's profit would buy us around 2,500 AXPW shares somewhere in today's price range.
Others here should be aware that on another thread several "experts" could not figure out when some open interest contracts on BTU had been established -- but HTL led me to the answer instantly: http://bit.ly/Mjc6N0
Say, what happened today? Sellers a little tuckered out? I've been thinking about that little grant. Last year a lot of us were bummed when Axion and its partners got left out in the cold. Was this award meant as some kind of consolation prize? It's for a somewhat different project than last year, true, but there could be a fair amount of overlap. I can't help thinking this means that we're going to be seeing a new Axion flagship microhybrid proof-of-concept demonstration vehicle out hitting the road (and the papers) before too long...
Axion stock at these levels is a gift, period. The risk/reward relationship has, categorically, never been better. It is always darkest just before dawn and Axion is simply navigating the backside of the "valley of death." Pull up a longer dated chart and you will see a rounding (albeit choppy) to the upside.
Burn-out with this stock abounds, tempers abound, but stocks are best bought during their "dog-days" when everyone else is doing their own soul-searching and questioning their own convictions. For when a stock goes parabolic, it is the easiest to buy, but also the most dangerous. When owning is *easy*, take caution. Obviously, owning AXPW right now is NOT easy... this is a contrarian signal.
The "sock-drawer" analogy is very much in effect. Too many positive developments are on the horizon.
"Burn-out with this stock abounds, tempers abound, but stocks are best bought during their "dog-days" when everyone else is doing their own soul-searching and questioning their own convictions. For when a stock goes parabolic, it is the easiest to buy, but also the most dangerous. When owning is *easy*, take caution. Obviously, owning AXPW right now is NOT easy... this is a contrarian signal."
Those would be wonderful words of wisdom for a company a couple years old but this one has been around quite a few years and the stock price is near an all time low. That is indeed either a tremendous opportunity to buy for the future or an indication that the company is going no where fast. Each of us must evaluate those two possibilities and risks before deciding what to do with hard earned cash. For now, mine is in other investments. Even if Axion makes a move up someday, it is highly unlikely it will be an overnight success. As for Axion being a "gift" at these prices, that remains to be seen. A low price does not always constitute a good buying opportunity, especially if the stock withers and dies. This one is teetering on the fence so its just a matter of which way the wind blows hardest. I think it's safer to "hold" the "gift" of cash at this point or better yet, put it where it more likely to grow.
This group seems enjoy convincing themselves that the more bleak the outlook and the harder the road, the bigger the reward will be. That kind of reasoning, more often than not will put you in the poor house. Good Luck.
I stopped buying for a couple of months as there was no news.
Upon the release of the NS announcement I started buying again. The 3 of us in our investment club have almost doubled our stake in AXPW since the announcement. We now have about 50% of JP's holding and continue to buy as cash comes available.
We do not need the hope for an overnight success. That is a path that always goes nowhere. The company story works for us.
Since it is obvious this is not the stock for you I just realized you are probably gone forever and my post is falling on deaf ears. Oh well its my time to waste.
FYI: In case this is useful to others for planning purposes.
We've all heard the "reversion to the mean" as a common target for moves away from recent extremes. But how reliable is it? Well, not 100% and there's variations on it that involve Fibonacci percentages, etc.
But it's got a pretty good hit rate, from my unquantified observations.
Last time I calculated where (TSLA) would go to establish an exit point for my $29 long calls, I added a note to my chart that said $30.76.
We hit and exceeded it today and then closed at $30.79 at 15:59 today.
This in spite of the fact that Tesla announced their first deliveries to a few select customers will commence on 6/22, which gave a gap-up open and took pps as high as $31.34 today (I wish I had sold then!).
Where is this useful to *investors*? When a stock starts to run or drop, especially on no news, and you feel strongly there was no real reason for the move, use a "reversion to the mean" as a *starting* point for planning your actions. Then tack in any adjustments you feel are appropriate for external events, such as PR, economics, etc.
HTL, "Where is this useful to *investors*? When a stock starts to run or drop, especially on no news, and you feel strongly there was no real reason for the move, use a "reversion to the mean" as a *starting* point for planning your actions. Then tack in any adjustments you feel are appropriate for external events, such as PR, economics, etc." I'm beginning to think that it's a blessing that Axion basically is flying under the radar these days. After looking at what has happened to Exide and now MXWL in the last month, I'm glad we aren't actively followed by the major rating agencies. MXWL barely missed profit expectations but get downgraded anyway, which caused the stock to lose 2/3rd its value. Not a friendly market out there.
The same sector rotation out of the altenergy sector merged with their slightly weak results and a few downgrade articles, all at the same time.
Ouch.
It may well prove to be a wonderful time for new investors (like myself, I am reviewing them closely) to enter, of course, but it represents a nasty setback for current investors.
MAP, I would think if they have personal insider knowledge of "something big" coming, that that would restrict them from buying while the information is not yet public. I'm not sure about how truly tricky that all is for them, but with several concurrent initiatives being under development for quite some time, and covered by NDAs, it would seem to be a fairly dicey proposition...
and something like 56% of the company shares are owned by insiders already. I don't think they have any interest in reducing the float because it is not that large.
I want to challenge you on your statements and questions.
First off the executives did purchase a boatload of shares when this company was in its infancy. They paid a lot more than the present price. Please follow the executives as you were taught. This mean you will buy more today.
Second: Why aren't the execs buying more today? How much should they own? If one exec puts an order in for 1000 shares at $.40 you then believe it is a good price?
I would suggest you simply determine for yourself what the value of a share of Axion is worth to you. My value or an Exex's value means nothing. Now if you are saying that a major buy by an Exec is a buy signal to you then go get em. But don't spin the negative that they are not buying, as some excuse for the price performance.
Yep. Let us also remember that TG's and Vani's and other manager's who have options have them priced at $1.50. No gifts to management from the board without joy for all shareholders.
Lets take the something big out of the equation. If they are way underwater EVERY company has officers buying and selling. Now maybe they are buying, as i haven't done my DD except reading Freyas comment.
Having said that and knowing their salaries why not average down some??? Just makes sense doesn't it??
I agree that this management is above that and would be very careful about even the perception. So, that being said, you couldn't follow the execs because they have more ethics than that.
Personally i will not buy anymore until i see sales increase. I am no way putting a spin on the price. But if i had inside knowledge of what the company was doing why shouldn't they add more shares??
So don't read into a spin that wasn't intended. All i know is i heard 300 % to no guidance and have been told they are a conservative bunch. So all i am asking is an investment question to learn. The share price is based on performance to me,,
All are hoping for it to increase, and i know some of you are adding. But i also know some big seller was bailing out last week, So my question was a simple one.
Did i miss a major buy by an Exec?? Eight and a half years ago is a lifetime to me personally and a different reason for those who took the risk...
I might add if i thought the stock was going to be at 2 bucks in a year and could buy it at 35 cents i would empty the vault..So i just disagree with your thoughts...How many shares is enough?? Enough is different for each individual...
>MAP ... I've no understanding of this near paranoid obsession of yours about the corporate officers buying back shares. I think it is of no consequence. I'm sure that they understand, as well as most here, that the stock price is in no way a reflection of the business at the present time. The stock is broken, not the company, so it will correct on its own.
The officers are the core, the inventors, developers as much as they are just management and, after all, busy doing useful work. Product is the focus and worrying about share price, in & of itself, is a distraction best left to folks, suchas yourself, that place some importance on it.
Map you seem to find something to worry about every week. If you don't want to buy anymore until you see a sales increase that doesn't sound unreasonable to me. So if you saw insiders buying would you buy more without the sales increase? I doubt it. So why are you worrying about it one way or the other?
DRICH...Your comments are actually not worth my time. Paranoid obsession?? Honestly you need help...Believe what you want. You have no clue of what work they are doing. Do you work there??
Amazing such foolish comments that i have to actually read...If the stock price is undervalued then you buy more....simple,,,,
Now why don't you add an educated reason why they should not buy anymore..
You are right. YOU have no understanding!! Keep up the insults. Just makes you look foolish.
DRICH....I doubt it, not your nature...Like i said i can walk away from these concentrators and come back in a week and it's like a soap on TV. Same ole stuff.
Investors fighting, some wanting to learn but i guess frustration is setting in. Clock is ticking as June is upon us very soon. Promises of 300% growth ?
If i invested my majority of money here i would be worried also. Too bad this fun time seems to be breaking at the seams..
During Axion's first four years of operations its founders poured about $20 million of their own money into the company. By 2006, I'd personally bet the castle on the PbC's success. The last few years have not been kind to many of us who were once far richer than we are today. I'd love to take my average cost down from $1.25 to something in the mid-$.60s, but I don't have a spare million in cash lying around because I invested it in Axion years ago.
Most insider buying in public companies is done by directors and officers who don't have an appreciable amount of skin in the game. When directors and officers who already have multi-million dollar stakes buy a few more shares in the open market, sophisticated investors tend to view the buying as a thinly-veiled attempt to shore up or even manipulate a weak market.
Just as insider selling is not always bad, insider buying is not always good. It also gives rise to significant risks that somewhere down the line a disgruntled stockholder who sold at the lows will file a lawsuit claiming that the insiders took advantage of him because they knew far more about how good things were going.
My one experience with insider buying was with Ener1. Beginning of last year they were around ~$3. They started dropping continuously throughout the year and at aabout $1.50 Gassenheimer (the CEO) as well as the CFO started doing some buying. Within about three months the company was filing for bankruptcy and trading around .10.
Just from that experience I will never use insider buying as a buy signal, especially with small caps and especially when the price seems to be very undervalued. To me it shows management getting worried and that they have no other way to instill confidence in the company but to start buying; an attempt at a cheap fix for a weak stock price.
MAP: I think there are exceptions to everything. The response that JP gives way down below says a lot.
I just wanted to add another consideration.
Elon Musk bought a *bunch* of TSLA on the open market.
Would one seriously buy Tesla based on that?
My feeling is that insider buys or sells are only one of *many* considerations. And none of them, including insider buys, are in and of themselves the "be all and end all".
Having been following JPs stuff for a long time, I was already aware that they had *lots* of skin in the game. Their lack of buying more never bothered me one whit as everyone has to take care of family first and should have limits.
If they don't have limits, I don't want to invest with them.
My wife is the chief lawyer for a $5 billion publicly quoted corporation.
She would cut the balls off any executive who traded without her permission. There are very specific times when insiders of a publicly quoted corporation can trade and then on top of that there are other restrictions that apply when there are material discussions going on.
Given the dynamic situation and the very real fact that these guys do not make huge salaries it does not surprise me that there is little in the way of insider buying.
You obviously are uncomfortable with the company and the lack of insider buying. For your own peace of mind maybe you should sell.
Thank you for those educated answers. These i listen to and learn from. Just wish others would be as cordial, But been following this for a while so i know who to expect certain responses from...
Is that the only answer you can give, SELL?? i ASK A QUESTION AND READ BELOW WHAT is an educated response to a follower of a stock...In fact i have read a few of your posts in the past and you have been wrong many times. Appreciate you not worrying about my decisions...Thanks !!!
Vani was out of work...He would have accepted $3 bucks just as long as he had a salary to help him survive!! Just a thought, lets see some fruits from his work then i will change my mind...
At an assumed electrode increment of $100 per battery, I'd be thrilled with a 5% market penetration and the $175 million of recurring annual revenue that 5% would represent. Granted 15% would be better, but I'm happy to walk before I try to run.
Maya, Probably would have been worse if not for the fact that many of the coal fired plants being retired are being replaced by natural gas generators, and natural gas prices, due to fracking, are way down. Of course, now if we can only get all those fracking bans passed, then we can push that price back up!
It looks like Obama is actually delivering on something he promised in the his 2008 campaign -- rising electricity prices -- but the price rises won't really start kicking in until 2015 so "credit" for his deed may or may not fall on him. http://tinyurl.com/cxk... < Obama’s war on coal hits your electric bill
By Phil Kerpen
Published May 22, 2012
| FoxNews.com
Obama’s War on Coal has already taken a remarkable toll on coal-fired power plants in America.
Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a shocking drop in power sector coal consumption in the first quarter of 2012. Coal-fired power plants are now generating just 36 percent of U.S. electricity, versus 44.6 percent just one year ago. <
And some might want less. Less coal-fired power generation means less Norfolk Southern rail traffic. http://bit.ly/vCtfBg < The most common commodity hauled on the railroad is coal from mines in Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. The railroad also offers the most extensive intermodal network in eastern North America. <
To offer a contrarian viewpoint to the board, I consider a drop in coal consumption to be very good news. Obama is merely a representative of millions of Americans. Less coal-burning makes all kinds of sense for my children's future. Consider the cost to states that import coal: http://bit.ly/JcYMGP My state is on the list. And yes, I understand that electricity prices are likely to rise. I am not expecting a free ride from less coal burning. But one also has to expect less asthma, less pollution clean-up, less economic catastrophe from global weirding etc. Sustainability = stability.
>D Lane ... That argument "Sustainability = stability" will not appeal to people with a "Walmart" kind of mindset. Offset savings or advantages are seldom a consideration. It's all about what's in front of the consumer's face (good, bad or indifferent) and whether that unit is on an ever cheapening price, as opposed to cost, scale.
If you're worried about its impact on weird weather put on your glasses with the funny fake eyeballs attached with springs and enjoy the ride. What you're seeing in regional trends has more to do with economic shifts that true reduction in consumption. The only thing that is going to stop it is cheaper energy (only option is N.G. and nuclear, really nuclear) or one of Darwin's thoughts. I think it's a 99.9% chance the last option comes into play.
I'll end my thoughts on the topic end here because discussing this is in the politics quadrant.
Thanks for the global picture on coal consumption. It is sobering to say the least. And yet hope lives and I'll take positive signs where I can find them. . . I love investing in energy efficiency. The cheapest kilowatt hour is one not needed.
>iindelco ... Someday I hope to gain an understanding of what "cheap" energy might be. So far the only thing that comes close that I'm sure of rises & sets daily but utilizing it is an entirely other proposition.
D Lane. You're absolutely right on that comment. We are very wasteful for sure. I think this is where we are and will continue to shine the most. Why? Because it's easy by comparison (Not intended to minimize or belittle the effort.) .
DRich, I understand where you're going with this. For sure we do not collect the entire cost of the various forms of energy directly in the pricing structure up front. This has more to do with the games that industry and politicians play than the end users.
BW, that is a whopping increase in CAPACITY charges. That is, an increase in the price paid to "fixed plant and equipment" needed to produce the electricity which is a small percentage of the total price of electricity to consumers which includes similar charges for transmission capacity, fuel costs, and operational costs of local distributors. .
Stefan, I'm liking my version of Negawatts. About two years ago we moved from our old house to one closer to my work and moved our kids daycare in the same way. Instead of putting the usual 12-15K miles on my Civic every year I'm now traveling less than half those miles. When I look at the gas, oil, and general wear on my car that I'm "not" spending on it, I like the results in my wallet and knowing I'm reducing my carbon foot print in a responsible way. Plus, since there are others around me doing the same thing, the test scores of our local school have gone up as the school has more resources to use from a larger tax pool! :-)
BW & D-inv, this Fox article (if true....) is the most bullish item I have ever seen for Axion. Capacity charges have a huge impact on commercial and industrial electricity costs. PowerCubes should be extremely profitable (money saving) for industrial and commercial customers if those capacity charges stick.
The driver behind the increases in capacity charges is probably due to the increase in non-dispatchable power (wind, solar to a much lesser degree), as well as the burdens placed on coal-producers.
RK, thanks for the input. I haven't doublechecked both capacity charges shown in the Fox article, but I am certain the last auction resulted in much higher prices than those prevailing now and set for next year. PJM Interconnection capacity auction results were published last Friday and I referenced them here at the time. (Been intending to investigate whether Viridity Energy was a bidder, but haven't gotten around to it.)
But we'll need them all for some time until some of the newer stuff hopefully gets better. (All in favor of fusion as one far off hoped for solution raise your hands.). Yeah yeah yeah..... We'll weaponize it. Oh we already did in one way!
I fear if we keep breeding the way we are we are destine to go the way of mold on bread with the baker on vacation. Or something will come into play to intervene. I hope we can steer the outcome vs the alternatives. Not easy choices to to be made but far better than waiting for "Unknown unknowns"!
PBC is one of those millions of little things that help at a very good price/performance ratio. If humans were just able to steer our creativity in the direction of constructive efforts better we'd be far better off. I doubt that will change.
If the CO2 impact data is valid humans are going to march right off the cliff. I happen to think the pollution and many factors regarding food/water will get many first.
"Scientist: Evolution debate will soon be history"
Looking at the past for signs of how various times in history living creatures have been stressed by different factors.
Not going to get into the evolution debate.
""We may be on the cusp of some very real disasters that have nothing to do with whether the elephant survives, or a cheetah survives, but if we survive.""
I've always claimed to be an AGW agnostic, but I'm really more of an AGW fatalist. No matter what we do in North America and Europe to reduce CO2 emissions, emerging economies in Asia, South America and Africa will more than take up the slack. For us it's a matter of paying more. For them it's a choice between light and heat, and freezing in the dark. I know enough about human nature to know the outcome. If the theories of AGW are correct, we're already screwed.
We're absolutely on the same page. I use "Humans are like mold on bread and the bakers not making any more". We will grow into our food source unless other stimuli come into play.....and they will.
I'm a fatalist for sure and I sure wish the data left more room for debate.
JP > "I've always claimed to be an AGW agnostic ..."
:-) AGW to some extent is most certainly real, but CO2 is likely the least of the means. Land use change and water pollution (including biological nutrient enrichment) are much bigger contributors to climate change IMO.
iindelco, I do think the data leaves more room for debate at present. I'm having to duplicate this comment on SA pages because the media elects to mostly ignore recent scientific studies which long-term may have coal appearing to be the cleaner fuel alternative.
I am long both coal and nat gas producers, but I was quite surprised to learn recently of a multi-year study just published in the Journal of Geophysical Research that suggests that methane and other chemicals are leaking from gas drilling wells at least at twice the rate reported by industry. So to date when the pollution comparison between coal and nat gas is made at the source of electricity production -- the measurements are not adding or taking into account the doubling of methane and other chemical leakage estimates at the original drilling sites.
At a minimum this latest multi-year research is "the latest volley in an intense estimate war under way in the scientific community about whether natural gas really is cleaner than the coal" and could ultimately either change nat gas production costs for well measurement devices or down the line change the status of coal to the cleaner energy alternative. http://n.pr/K09Yci
Also an abstract and additional analysis with embedded links are here: http://bit.ly/Kxw5p4
OR - The 30-author study I referenced above can be purchased for $25 here: http://bit.ly/L6XY9K
An old favorite saying of mine is that "Mother Nature's a bitch and she has her own ways of dealing with systems that get out of balance." Humanity has gotten out of balance and I have no doubt that mother nature's payback is coming. Since I don't figure there will be any loopholes or get out of jail free cards, I hope she holds off for a few more decades. After mother nature sets things to rights, humanity will do what it's always done – adapt to changed conditions or disappear.
Intriguing links. I agree with John's repeated comments that there is no energy (battery) panacea...please correct me if I am wrong John. Obviously, there is no source energy panacea either.
I have been encouraged by the NATGAS fracking story, but with the appropriate safety and long term affects studies ongoing.
We always seem to come back to efficiencies and storage.
I had not seen any data regarding losses of methane in the field due to production operations. Surely I can understand based on the technology and the process there will be loses but I guess maybe I'm as surprised as the researcher was that it appears as significant as some of the data seems to indicate.
As a side note, one of the things I like to do with areas of interest like this topic is to me, where I follow the topic but not in great depth, is to try to find stats that put the level of emissions in perspective by comparing it with other emission sources. I've not found a really good site that lays out man made emissions in various categories vs natural emissions such as permafrost melt or organic matter decaying in various fashion such as from termites as an example etc. I try to do this just to better understand the magnitude of the problem because the numbers on a global scale in a category might seem huge only because I'm not familiar with the big picture. So I might in fact be using the wrong scale for measuring the problem.
Anyway, I was wondering if you've found a site that has some break down on on the magnitude of various emissions sources for methane. I've looked some and haven't found anything yet. Will continue looking but you're far more knowledgeable in this area and thus might have something you might share.
BTW, Here's the termite article I found while searching for a document that breaks down methane emissions by source.
The negative impact of increased CO2 is apparently exaggerated.
William Happer a Princeton University Professor writes that CO2 is not a pollutant. Life was abundant for hundreds of millions of years with much higher CO2 levels than are now present. Plants grow better and are more resistant to drought with Higher CO2, and doubling CO2 levels actually only increases global temperatures by 1%.
Former Senior Scientist of climatology for NASA, Roy Spencer, has a site where he shows global temperatures not increasing hardly at all over the past decade.
Iindelco, Mercy ... I rather suspect the levels of atmospheric hydrocarbon compounds found in the air in Colorado on occasions the wind was blowing from the direction of oil/gas fields could have a lot to do with numbers of new well completions with hydraulic fracking shortly before air samples were taken. I understand that wells completed with water-based hydraulic fracking are typically vented into the atmosphere until water content of the flowback falls to a pretty low level. Alternatives (CO2, fuel oil, and some others) to water fracking have been around for some time, but in the past couple of years GasFrac Energy Services (Canadian co.) has pushed commercialization of propane fracking. Where pipeline connections are readily available, venting of NG flowback with high water content can be avoided on wells completed with the GasFrac process. (Long GasFrac: GSF on Toronto exchange, GSFVF.PK in US).
You may be overstating my "knowledge" in this space. I am not an engineer/scientist, but rather an MBA who loves to invest in ALL energy sectors -- so I read a lot -- and the debate regarding nat gas being cleaner than coal in my mind is still very much an open one.
In answer to your question, the only other site I have come across (besides EPA data) which has a breakdown of our global methane inventory (albeit a bit dated) is NASA's Goddard Institute which even includes the % for your termite contribution: http://bit.ly/KlWAAE
D-inv -- I think the variables you raise are worth noting and were addressed in part in the full research study I mentioned..
mj
P.S. I learn a lot from both of you re: the PbC - many thanks.
Yes, I had read your bio (impressive). Know who you're talking to right.
We have a similar interest in the energy sector. My favorite area is in the storage sector (really!) but you can't really fully understand a concentrated area of a sector without having knowledge of the whole sector and the elements that impact it such as legislation.
Anyway, These boards, with their diversity and talent, sure do help in collecting information and honing one's perspective. It's a real blessing to be able to participate in such a group for sure.
Thanks for the link.
P.S., I bet given your background and what you got to see while performing your mission, you were about as shocked by what happened in the financial sector as I was by GM's bankruptcy. No need to answer, just food for thought.
Given our common interest in the energy storage sector -- here's one which may interest you if you have not already seen it re: carbon capture and storage for geothermal energy: http://bit.ly/JPI0Nq I have only one very small position in geothermal and its been a dog of a performer -- so maybe this technology will help the industry turn the corner over time. mj
P.S. RE: financial sector management -- I was able to exit at an opportune time in 2008 -- for which I am grateful. I've never had more fun than what I am doing now!
Thanks for the link. I'm a big fan of geothermal where it makes sense. Not so much for carbon capture. That being said, where you can use CO2 as a process gas for extracting/storing thermal energy or as an input to extract additional fossil fuel output it might make more sense. Does it make enough sense so it will be self sustaining without government support over the long run? I'm not learned enough on the topic to know.
Please understand that my perspective is that if CO2 is going to be fatal to human kind I think the outcome is guaranteed. Not 99.999% but 100% guaranteed. Thus my reasoning of not adding any value to the economic decision making process for carbon sequestration into the economic point stated in the prior paragraph.
Please don't confuse my perspective on CO2 with pollution. Controlling the many forms of pollution is in my mind far more important to humanity than controlling CO2 (Not a pollutant IMHO) will ever be.
P.S. I'm happy for your successful exit plan isolating you from the man made economic chasm.
Because I believe the next big crises is already on the way, I find this very interesting. Could foretell not only how investements in clean water might pay off, but also what energy sources might be favored, assuming all the other resources needed (siting, ...) are favorable.
Thanks HTL. In my younger years it was hard to ever consider fresh water as anywhere close to scarce growing up near the Finger/Great lakes in the North Eastern US. Only after some professional travel and a few years of working for ITT (the conglomerate post IT&T) did I get a greater sense for how localized (abundant or scarce) the resource can really be. ITT controls the largest portfolio of water pump manufacturing assets and I saw a presentation about 15 years ago where they indicated that there was a higher probability that the next great wars would be fought over water and not oil.
Anyway, Thanks for the article tying the level of water use to energy. GOoOoOoooo corn ethanol!
OT sort of. Kentucky and Arkansas primary elections suggest Obama has trouble in some Democratic party ranks. Question is, how much of that is directly related to the political push and subsidies for alternative energy and how much to other factors.
Kentucky primary results (Obama had no opposition, but people could appparently cast votes for "uncommitted". Voting results with 119 of 120 counties reported.
I want to revisit the topic of insider buying from the perspective of a former Axion insider, which I was for several years.
When an investor buys stock from a public company in a private or public offering, the cash flows from his pocket to the company's bank account. That cash increases the company's ability to pay salaries, buy equipment and implement its business plan. It's hard working money that earns its keep.
When an investor buys stock in the open market, the cash flows from his pocket to the pocket of a selling shareholder. The investment adds nothing to the company's ability to conduct or grow it's business and it's basically a simple bet that the market price will increase over time.
Active secondary markets are essential to the smooth operation of the capital markets because no investor wants to enter a room that has no exit, but they're the tail of the dog rather than the dog itself.
Over the course of a 30 year career I've invested over $10 million in the stock of client companies, but 99% of my transactions have been direct purchases of stock from my clients because that's where my money can do the most work and create the biggest benefit.
Commenters in this forum frequently speak of keeping *dry powder* for their next opportunity. As an old hand in the corporate finance business I can tell you first hand that when insiders think of keeping *dry powder,* they think in terms of conserving cash that can be invested directly in their companies if necessary.
Axion's insiders have invested over $20 million of their personal wealth in the company's stock. Every penny of that investment went into Axion's treasury where it was used to implement Axion's business plan.
If I had a million dollars of cash lying around today that I wanted to invest in Axion, I'd be on the phone with Tom Granville negotiating the terms of a direct investment in Axion instead of buying in the open market because that's where my money would do the most work.
Directors and officers of unprofitable public companies who buy shares in the open market do so for one reason and one reason only – they want to create a market perception that the stock is undervalued. If they're serious about their companies, they put their cash to work in those companies instead of giving it a selling stockholder who wants to take his wife to the Bahamas for a weekend.
There are always two sides to an issue and if I want to be useful it's usually a good idea to present the side that's less obvious.
I've been involved in any number of discussions over the years where PR types wanted management to buy stock in the open market because they thought it would help the stock price. In every case I advised my clients to avoid behavior that I viewed as manipulative.
In a big profitable company where the managers are hired guns who have no skin in the game, open market purchases are often the only option. In small unprofitable companies, open market purchases are usually manipulative.
From my point of almost zero knowledge on trading by directors, and executives of companies, MAP's question resulted in me acquiring some knowledge I didn't have before about Axion and insider trading in general. I thought it a fair question, however, it could have been couched in different terms. And people even refer to me as a grumpy old b******!
Great info as always, John. I never thought of it that way. I do always look more at insider buying rather than selling but never considered that they would rather do the buying outside of the marketplace.
An O/T question for anyone, PM if you don't want to clutter up the blog;
As part of my recent severance I will be getting a large lumpsum payment next month. I have been using Etrade for a number of years, but considering other options. I'll be putting the dough in a traditional IRA. Any thoughts on TDAmeritrade, etc? I'll probably be buying more AXPW, LOL.
Directors and officers are precluded from selling or purchasing stock when they're in possession of "material non-public information." In a company like Axion, directors and officers are almost always in possession of some information that a lawyer could claim was material.
A simple example is the rumor we heard from Axionistas who attended the ESA and heard Vani Dantam mention that NS wanted to build a fleet of 50 to 75 battery-electric locomotives. If a director or officer bought stock today and news of a monster order was released within a few months, then people who sold their stock at $.35 would have a great lawsuit.
Frankly, if I saw any of Axion's directors and officers buying stock in the public market I'd be depressed as hell because I'd interpret it as a statement that there was nothing important going on behind the scenes.
I honestly try to word my questions with respect. However since some in here felt i was a troll i believe they interpret it differently. Us New Yorkers like to get to the point.
I also, just learned a valuable lesson that there is a difference between a hired gun and a true investor in the company, I never knew that !!!
Now this DOE Grant....Good news as i read it, am i wrong??
alsobirdman, I use TDAmeritrade for my IRA funds. Works ok. I don't do the level of analysis as HTL, so it gives me everything I need in a pretty easy to understand layout. A couple of things to keep in mind. You usually get a certain number of free transactions when you sign-up. After that, all trades are $10/trade and it doesn't matter what the size is. Also, don't rely on TDAmeritrade's news section to give you all the latest news on the stock. They only give you the major news outlets and market watchers. Stuff like John's articles you would never find with their information filters.
I think it's better news than I did originally when I read the original blurb Stephan found a couple days ago. This Phase I award is clearly directed at the next generation of micro-hybrids that simply can't be built without much better battery performance than is possible with currently available products.
Back in February I wrote an article that included a graph from Lux Research that separated the micro-hybrid market into light, medium and heavy sectors and showed the expected ramp of each sector through 2017. – http://seekingalpha.co...
I'm far from unbiased, but I see a very good chance that the PbC will own the heavy sector and be a strong competitor for the medium micro-hybrids as well.
Alsobirdman: Overall I'm quite satisfied with ETrade. I've both IRA and conventional accounts.
My # 1 gripe is with the software development group's lack of participation in the customer support experience. Reported bugs, when accompanied by logs, debug, snapshots, offers to participate by one with over 30 years in computer systems in many areas including 20+ as a developer, ..., should be fixed in an expeditious manner.
They are not.
Disclosure: with my background, I might expect others to meet my standards, which I know is wrong.
My number 2 gripe is that when they let their app designers go to work for the beautification or whatever, we lose features or real estate. Both are important to me.
On the positive side, they do well for me when I have questions or need other types of assistance. But I'm a "frequent trader" that puts me in "Elite Platinum" support territory. I don't know how they treat the rest of the folks.
They have pretty good support for research, guidance right on their web site and access to financial planning advisers is also available.
They don't offer much for trading on foreign exchanges or much for forex that folks like us might want to use.
They are a bit more expensive than some other places, on a per-trade basis, but I figure that helps support the resources. If you don't trade much, that's not a consideration I guess.
U.S. DOE Awards Grant to Axion Power International to Fund Commercialization Plan for PbC® Batteries In Micro-Hybrid Vehicles
Axion Power was one of 75 companies out of a total of 764 applicants to earn an award in the first phase of the DOE's program. Grant funding is expected to be available to Axion Power by late June of this year and Phase I will conclude 10 months from that date. According to DOE documents, Phase II awards will be granted to approximately 50% of Phase I awardees and will conclude in 12-15 months. Phase III will follow shortly thereafter.
At first I was disappointed that they chose to use this award as PR, because in 15 months from June I would hope they are sitting on some Automotive contracts already and not still just trying to get grants but now that I have thought about it for longer than two seconds I see two positives:
1. Its free money.
2. Since Phase II is about $1M, we can assume that phase III would award a multiple of that (if the award is still around, American debt etc.) A multi-million dollar award at the end of 2013 - 2014-ish, depending on how the funds are allocated could afford them at least one or more electrode lines that would drastically help a healthy ramping of commercialization right at a time they will most likely be needing it.
So, looking at the big-picture it is a good thing and just because it is small and puny now does not mean it can't significantly contribute to commercialization in 15-18 months from now. Which might be the perfect timing. The key here is the award is to help fund commercialization of the PbC, while I believe commercialization is underway this might come at the tail-end of the transitioning helping to boost capital significantly.
While it's old experience, the limits for Phase III grants used to be in the $7.5 million range.
The best guy I've ever seen when it comes to working the SBIR system is Howard Schmidt (the Chairman of Axion's Technology Committee). Before I did the world's first carbon nanotechnology IPO for Howard in 1992, he funded his company with $100,000 in investor capital and a total of $3.3 million in SBIR grants, excluding the $1 million of SBIR grant applications that were pending on the date of the IPO. In a later gig as executive director of Rick Smalley's Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory at Rice University Howard had first tier responsibility for managing all of their grant solicitation, reporting and management activities.
Jak, I don't see how any company with AXPW's cash burn could rationally view receipt of the award as anything other than a material event. I am decidedly unenthusiastic about AXPW looking to federal funding sources in future, but see a potential advantage in this "phase I" award.
Axion's DCA white paper has been readily available online at Axion's website for some time, but traffic at that site is limited. A report to DOE on award funded activities/findings has substantial potential for reaching a larger audience and may provide a vehicle for disclosure of some information not published to date due to NDAs, That could help generate public demand growth for PbC-based Start/Stop autos. But, if the PbC has not won a Start/Stop design competition before phase II of the DOE exercise begins, I will look to PowerCube, and rail locomotive applications for AXPW survival.
Jakurtz, I see the DOE grant as good PR that doesn't change what the company is doing. It's kind of like the on-site PowerCube at Axion. They got a grant from Penn. to help pay for it. So now they have a unit up and running for potential customers to come see and for them to get data from. It didn't change their focus, but it was useful funds to help get their product out there in the public eye. I see the DOE grant in the same way. It's not going to change their testing with BMW, NS or any other OEM that they are currently working with. But it helps get their PbC out in the open and, as has been mentioned by others, allows them to generate data that can be shared openly, unlike other testing that is probably tied up in confidentiality agreements. So I see it as a nice plus that will help them promote the PbC.
Paolo, Thanks for providing the link. However, was the information was caught and posted by Stefan Moroney in concentrator 103. Don't recall seeing you post to the concentrator previously. Welcome and thanks for making an effort.
Excellently well written PR has much technical content that is worth discussing in this forum. -.Dual battery architecture for micro-hybrid vehicles. Ratify AXPW: Dual battery and certainly in that direction works BMW. -.Next generation micro-hybrid vehicles will, and in some cases already do, include added features such as regenerative braking, "sailing" (i.e. turning the engine off as the vehicle slows or coasts below a pre-determined speed) and perhaps some form of battery assist to the initial vehicle acceleration. -.The lead-acid battery is not designed to suitably provide the dual function required in today's micro-hybrid vehicles. -.The system will be equipped with: alternator generator. -.The PbC battery, on the other hand, has been proven to quickly accept full system charge (i.e. no loss of charge acceptance) for more than 5 years of usage. This advantage translates into much greater "engine off" time resulting in much greater fuel economy with significantly reduced Co2 emissions.
I get the feeling that the DOE will be a good source of money to be able to expand its plant AXPW (10 more lines). Have a nice day. Carlos.
The PR was exceptionally clear and to the point. It does suggest a system similar to the one used in F1 and I believe, Porsche that uses an alternator generator to produce over 70 hp on demand, over and over and over.
Agreed...well written PR. Some commenters posted why it wasn't released earlier. This was well worth the delay for clarity and "selling" the AXPW story.
Given the timing of Phase I, II and III, I don't see this as an "event", rather a continuation of the AXPW story.
Credibility, like a cathedral, is built one stone at a time. Some stones are big and impressive while others are small and modest. They're all important to the final structure.
This is one of those times when I'd love to have access to the grant application. The original Funding Opportunity Announcement is here – http://bit.ly/K4kXBm – but it's pretty general in scope and doesn't offer a huge amount of clarity on what Axion's application might have included.
Brishwain, Was wondering when you were going to get around to that. I've been hoping you had it in the works since Feb, when the DOE should have received it. Thanks.
John, Well, that, yes. And the fact that I'm too busy to figure out how to do a FOIA myself, so I was hoping that Brishwain would do it again, since he's done it in the past and knows how.
A somewhat OT post but one that may be of interest to some here... Looks like the Atlantic Wind Connection (HVDC backbone off the U.S. east coast for wind turbine farms) has passed a hurdle that allows Atlantic Grid Holdings to start an environmental review. http://bit.ly/LoNmDo
A link in that IEEE article brought me to another that contained an amusing energy storage methaphor:
"Transmission has always been the elephant in the room when it comes to renewable energy (with apologies to energy storage; let's call that the mildly smaller hippopotamus in the room)."
LOL. Powerpotamus is cute enough for a children's tv series.
But I would disagree that storage is less important to these projects than transmission...
I would have to reverse those priorities, and I believe the reason they don't do this is that they know well that the transmission issues can be licked easier than the storage problem.
One of the mystery things, I'm sure, but it is pretty small potatoes and if it is THE mystery thing that prompted his remark(s) I'd say we are all in deep dodo land investment wise.
My bet is that it wasn't even on his radar. Filing grant applications is like any other human activity. When the first grant application is passed over and you get honorable mention in somebody else's award you're disappointed. When you bring in GM as a co-applicant and get passed over it's a major defeat. After a couple big rejections, it's hard to get excited about future applications.
D-inv, I think you're thoughts about short tern impact are right because of the timing associated with the future grant possibilities. But it is a clear path to much greener pastures just like NS.
What I like to try to read into this, and maybe I'm wrong, is that most probably the DOE does not see the offerings from groups like ALABC as the magic bullet they postulated during their recent lead enhanced negative electrode offering presentation in Europe. If it was then it would win hands down from a cost perspective and they wouldn't support this effort by Axion. Yes, it was a different application of the technology but it still reflects on the improvement in the negative electrode to a pretty high degree in the areas of life/charge acceptance. We know but's it's nice to know they are paying attention. With all the blind lithium chasing they are at least still looking around.
Just my positive reading of the tea leaves it trying to determine DOE's motivation. Yes, Perhaps in spite of all the efforts to ignore Axion the darn thing still makes sense. Who'da thunk it.
John, I just gotta say, I'm not so sure about that. You know TG best, but given the multi-phase nature of this grant series, the huge potential going forward, and the fact that it's focused on something right in the epicenter of PbC's wheelhouse (plus implicates their work with BMW), given all this, I would be shocked if he were really unaware of this track. He just doesn't strike me as the kind of CEO who likes or would allow things like this going on without his knowledge or involvement...
I don't believe for a minute that Tom wasn't aware of the progress.
I just don't think that it qualifies as *important* news that he couldn't talk about. Heck, when we found out about the grant on Monday I was wondering whether Axion would even bother to put out a release.
The DOE grant is a nice feather in Axion's cap, but feathers won't cut it when many Axionistas are waiting for a chicken dinner and some of us are expecting a Butterball Turkey.
HTL The last couple of days, I noticed the sales right before the market closing have been small sales and the price is also lower than most of the sales of the day. Please comment! Thanks 08
What we have is buyers who are bottom-feeders, generally, that know if they wait some "weaker hands" will eventually turn loose of some shares at a lower price.
So most don't move their bids up.
Then late in the day the "weak hands" who really want out come in with reduced asks, eventually hitting a point where someone says "close enough" and makes the buy.
Moreover, in the trend we're in right now, making a bottom and starting a reversal or consolidation I think, this is typical stuff.
In my insta last night I suggested we were about there and thought we might catch $0.37 today.
Didn't quite make it - got $0.3698.
But I do believe the down trend is over - check out today's late closing action when we went from almost no volume to a nice push up in volume early in the last 21 minutes. So instead of having sellers make *big* late-day adjustments down in the ask price, we had willing buyers who made small upward adjustments in what they were willing to pay, figuring the price might not come to them and they don't want to miss too much of any up move.
The size of the trades also increased, on average.
If you're asking because you're considering an add point, the best time recently was a few days back when I suggested in my insta that $0.33 would be good. I suggested it wouldn't be seen again.
Although I'm loathe to suggest anyone buy or sell at any particular point, I do believe we have made the low, near-term, and I hope to see a steady grind up begin, rather than a pop.
If we can get that pattern going, the small pauses for consolidation that typically happen on a sustainable move up will be essentially pain-free.
MHO, still learning, very experimental, and HTH, HardToLove
prices moving upwards on more volume is VERY bullish. if the market continues to sell off weak hands WILL follow the market trend and forget AXPW is showing signs of life here.
Axion Power Concentrator 104: May 21, 2012: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012 252 comments
These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
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Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2012
Risks of Owning Axion - A Discussion: by Futurist
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Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:
(updated May 19th)
(click to enlarge)
Concentrator Comments:
(updated May 19th)
(click to enlarge)
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LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.
Axion Power Q1 2012 Conference Call Questions, Set-up by Bangwhiz
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A little OT...but interesting big picture perspective...no panacea, but "extract the politics'...sorry...a little long!
Amory Lovins: A 50-year plan for energy
http://bit.ly/KNV8ED
Are you done moving?
or national security or environmental stewardship and climate protection and public health, reinventing fire make sense and makes money."
Amory Lovins: A 50-year plan for energy
My cup is always half full!
Oh no. I'm not "done moving" until mid-June... maybe.
My desire to get rid of stuff is getting higher.
- Drive the moving truck from VA to FL Thursday & Friday.
- Unload the moving truck over the weekend.
- Reload the truck from storage units two hours south of our house middle of next week.
- Unload the truck 2nd & 3rd times into the house and new storage units nearby Thursday next week.
- Then a PODS unit arrives Friday next week (in 10 days). Unload that too.
- Then... we start to get close to being done moving.
Wish there was a daily Axion cliff notes concentrator :-P... but the 200 odd message I'm behind will be good bedtime reading.
It appears his solution is to allow the private companies to prove their worth, but somewhere Government must support the long range plan of changing the current industry of energy supply and yet support the energy storage market while making sure the evil oil empire does not lower its price and muck up the 35 year plan.
I found this video interesting yet confusing.
tragicslip,
hadn't looked at PRPCF in a while...
wow, what a beatdown...
a quick look seems to indicate it continues to trade basically at the value of its 43% stake in PNIKF (essentially valuing PRPCF's other holdings at zero)...
to speculate... this might be a good time...
to invest...
they need a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) from the gov't in hand...
and they need around $700 million in financing in hand (exact numbers are in my article about the company... I don't remember off hand... all I can think about is boxing stuff)
Hope that helps...
If not, ask more questions... though perhaps better to ask in the Mongolia Weekly Update blog - http://bit.ly/sNjhw1 - which has my priority attention at the moment... versus other stuff where I'm just trying to hang on
:-) ..."sped by military innovation." Amory Lovins is in the business of hawking energy efficiency/energy productivity solutions and, in my experience, is as personally opportunistic, studiously obtuse, and number gerrymandering as the highest profile proponents of CAGW (catastrophic antopogenic global warming).
Point taken...lacking "exact proposals"...but, my thoughts:
Interesting view of the myriad of opportunities that are being pursued by many.
Some consistent factors raised by JP and commenters..."epidemic obesity" in car weight (re TSLA)...need for energy efficiency...desire to reduce wasteful subsidies...(circumvent least effective institutions (re government/politicians... of electricity generated from oil (?)...almost half electricity generated from coal...75% of oil fuels transportation...75% electricity powers buildings...NATGAS as a bridge energy source...thought provoking stats.
Having stated that, missing or lack from presentation (or I missed it):
Energy storage
"Shift to EV"...but no link how
2050 Plan...easier said than done...many wild card variables...government...
Reaffirms my confidence in the ability of the USA and other countries to actually make progress in our energy needs.
(witness...AXPW)
" Hey, I can solve our oil problem just doing a few simple things."
He is all hope and mirrors.
The real work is being done by businesses figuring out the clean tech revolution.
As far as I know, only right cheer! Others might have discovered a more conventional place.
If you can live with a chart that gets you close (still working on readability though - lots of stuff crammed on that part of the charts):
http://bit.ly/LVYU07
This gets updated between close of a day and open of the next day, *normally*, with commentary and thoughts added. I've not updated it for today yet, although I could. But I prefer to have some thought and comments to go along with it.
Other than that, I've recently started trying to post EOD stats in comments here. So, since you asked and I just happened to finish adding daily short sales into my spreadsheets a few minutes before I wandered over here again ...
Everything (and more?) that you might want to know about intra-day stuff I track (stuff I don't track not included, even if you want to know about them! :-)) ((-:
# Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30310, Vol 253600, AvTrSz: 5283
Min. Pr: 0.3500, Max Pr: 0.36 VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3561
# Buys, Shares: 33 182900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3593
# Sells, Shares: 14 68700, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3556
Buy:Sell 2.66:1
Daily short sales %: ~0.34
Looking at my charts, the early signs *if* (*if* *if*) I'm right about what my charts show is that we may not start a small move up. Expect a possible resistance at $0.37, but if we break there $0.40-$0.42 is a certainty IMO.
Reinforcemnet for this has begun to appear (but still very early) on the traditional charts in the form of a "doji" candlestick Friday followed by signs of "I'm getting ready to bust a move - but don't ask which way".
I have an opinion as to direction but for the moment I'll be mum (I know, I know - cross-dressing as a British mother is frowned upon in this neck of the woods, especially amongst truckers >:-)P
HTH,
HardToLove
EDIT! Corrected a typo on max price, VWAP.
WVAP affected by to 30K+ orders $0.3575/$0.356.
I gotta get me a better looking typist ... that way I wouldn't mind the typos as much! :-)
Apologies to all.
HardToLove
Are they checking out the facts of the white paper?
Is this necessary for larger adoption within the Federal Government?
Thanks in advance.
G
I do not have any idea of when or how we are going to get to that level without either a stock 1:5 or a $50m sales order.
Every time it looks like we have good news absolutely nothing happens ,and it dumbfounds me.
My only concern is without the institutional investors heavily in this stock , it's just a roundabout and not a hockey stick handle, what am I missing that without a consolidation or a very large order, that will get us to where we all want to be, and within 18 months, as has been said here before, enough of the R and D testing, I believe the tech is well proven at this point.
It would be really nice to have a super positive AGM, with real and measurable results and/or orders announced, maybe that will help get us back on track.
MHO,
HardToLove
I do like the sound of what you posted in "... next tier buyer that I know of".
Hm ...? :-)
HardToLove
I don't know whether there was any correlation, but the paint was drying very slowly yesterday until Stephen found a link to the new DOE grant. We had 50,000 shares of volume before the discovery and 200,000 afterwards.
Whenever a big seller is active it feels like Noah and the deluge. There's an interminable period of non-stop rain and gloom that suddenly ends when the seller runs out of stock. There's no advance warning, but suddenly the sun breaks through and the gloom ends. That's what makes inflection point investing so darned hard.
I don't know whether the willing sellers have 5,000 shares remaining or 5 million. I do know that it's a finite number that will be eaten down to zero sometime in the next three months. Once the sun breaks through I expect a rush to get off the fence, which is why stocks have inflection points.
Well Axionated?
HardToLove
Given the "exposure" regarding AXPW coverage via your articles and follow up blogs, I wonder what if any affect this might have on the stock buy/sell dynamic.
I would tend to concur "...that we already have a couple tiers of next level investors watching, lurking, doing their homework and waiting for something that will serve as a buy signal for them."
I would also posit that due to the number of readers/commenters, more "professional" investors are also on the fringe.
Your articles and these blogs provide a ready made due diligence source and followers provide a valuable insight to the behavioral dynamics of significant AXPW stock holders.
Several followers have expressed the value and "never seen before" due diligence, history and trend of one company.
Just wondering out loud!
Axionistas: The Few. The Proud. The Early.
--These will be highly coveted collector's items one day.
HardToLove
As a side note should it not say "rich" or "filthy rich" on it somewhere. That is the goal after all.
No need - it will be obvious from the litter bearers transporting us to the bank! :-)
When JP first used that I about rolled. It's imagery is so beautiful!
HardToLove
I would venture to suggest that the PPS would have to be well north of $10.00 for most of us to afford the sort of litter we would all like to be associated with.
Of course I have seen some very nice ones made of bamboo which might only require the PPS to stay about $0.50. But I like most aspire to greater heights.
"Nothing says "wealth" like a perfectly matched set of litter bearers :-)"
Do you mean like two French maids taking out my trash?
There are ladies present.
We don't need a 50M dollar sales announcement. We just need continued progress. A small DOE award to demonstrate Axion's stop start solution is wonderful. If it works well perhaps DOE will acknowledge it. NS's first field test is wonderful. I would bet there are more deals announced and signed before the next capital raise.
When you buy green bananas you can't eat them. I'm frustrated as hell with the stock, but not the business. There were plenty of recent remarks like the consecutive 300% YOY growth I just completely reject. I didn't like the off the cuff remarks about NS's plans. However, I haven't seen anything occur that would drive me to despair or cause me to sell my stock.
JP I assure you I don't believe "life is a sucking swirling eddy of despair, filled with brief moments of false hope in an ever blackening universe". I've simply arrived at a point where all I care about are the revenue numbers. The rest of it I will let others speculate about. As for the stock price today my attitude is I don't care. Around Q3 and certainly Q4 I'm going to care a lot.
I strongly suspect Axion will survive the DoE grant. I want to see real, unsubsidized, energy-effective, sales. $50m will be a nice start.
Most of the DOE award recipients may fail but the DOE will point at the few who succeed and say 'look what we did!'.
Not that I disagree with it. It's a hell of a lot better approach than throwing a half billion in loan guarantees at a solar company that eventually goes belly-up (ie: Solyndra).
And, for what it's worth, I'm mentally forcing myself to think the way Bang thinks to preserve my sanity.
"Disappointment is everywhere and always a function of expectations." It's ok to hope for that imminent 300% revenue growth but you set yourself up for disappointment once you begin to expect it.
I know, I know, 'hope is not a sound investment strategy'. But I hope only in the short term and I don't invest in the short term. I invest and expect in the long term.
I think anyone thinking of selling their AXPW in less than 5 years is really going to miss out. That's even if it's at $3.00 by this time next year. Because it will be $10+ in 5 years.
"I can think. I can fast. And", perhaps most important of all, "I can wait" said Siddhartha.
D
What's with that? Maybe they ARE fishing in a stocked pond so they can show the "big one" they caught! Seems odd.
However, the truth is that Axion is, indeed, considered an altenergy sector player, and angling for government handouts is the game as it is played.
Personally I winced when I read of the grant.
Its of course also quite possible that they waited for years before acting for other reasons and that the background of billions in failed government sponsored projects in this sector is just coincidental with a change in their decision, and that they still believe the sector will be a good investment going forward...
Its all just guesswork. Its unlikely Blackrock will let us in on their decision process.
I mean, if 100% of these grants paid off, I'd strongly criticize the grant criteria for throwing money at R&D that would have been done anyway as the risk was so miniscule! I HOPE a good percentage fails and that another good percentage pay off in the long run!
I get why people become cynical about government grants when it's so easy to turn every single failure into a hyped-up attack ad, and I get that some people philosophically want the government to fund ZERO risky R&D, but to criticize government grants for having a significant failure rate seems unfounded to me.
I would be interested in an honest comparison between long-term results of programs granted DoE money vs. Venture Capital firms in a similar field. For similar reasons, I wouldn't expect the results to be identical, but it'd sure be an interesting article!
HardToLove
I won't give all my reasoning, but my major thing is how easy it is for those folks to send the relatives of others off to get maimed, dead and ... for unsupportable (IMO) reasons.
My strong belief is that "information" was manipulated to provide support for the action to an unthinking populace.
Oh well, we'll never know the truth.
HardToLove
perhaps I am way over on what it takes, it just seems that even good news isn't enough, as opposed to needing really good news etc.
However, I am completely in sync with you, that I am frustrated with the stock and not necessarily the business, but that's because I've bought in many years ago at a huge multiple of where it's at today, and cannot average down even if I wanted too.
If Q3 and Q4 don't come together, I for one (at that point) will most assuredly not be a happy camper, especially if we have another ridiculously priced round of dilutive financing
I have read all of your post and to be truthful this is what you contribute:
" I bought Axion when it was in its infancy. I hoped it would blossom into a product but I didn't know. I sat for years hoping it would be a technological winner but I am not sure. I hope that all of these projects ( BMW, NS, GM, etc) will actually ever make me even, but I don't know."
All here understand your frustration with the stock price. We all feel that.
What I don't understand is why you fail to talk about the companies successes or failures, the product"s successes or failures, or managements successes or failures. You only seem to wallow in your own stock losses like many are not in the same boat.
Please correct me if I am wrong and you have something to contribute other than an observation that the stock price ( and sky) is falling
I think that's a little early...the Q3 and Q4, the coming together part. There is that little monetary raising still hanging out there, likely in Q4. I believe come Q4 more patience will still be required.
Oooo fair Diety, I hope I'm wrong.
bang: I'll take you a little further. I'll care if Axion's pricing is still at this level, maybe a little higher, come next April or May. By then, I expect to unload 50,000 shares in the 92 to 96 range. By then, I expect Axion to be well north of a buck twenty-five. Maybe way more.
Still maintaining that anyone getting in under 42 cents owns the investment of a lifetime.
I agree with your statement and do not believe it was the least moronic. For what it is worth that is precisely where I am. There were other comments in APH 103 that met that the moronic label.
All is good, now. Let us all move on.
assumed it was a troll and it cut down on my reading I don't have time for
"... do not believe it was the least moronic"
is not quite the same as
"... do not believe it was the least bit moronic". :-))
Offered in good fun so that others may experience the mirth I enjoyed, at your expense of course. :-))
From one experienced in such misstatements "hisself",
HardToLove
Me thinks the low price per share has everyone a little edgy.
Thanks for the good humor.
...little edgy
I think the problem right now is not AXPW-SS-Blackrock, etc., the problem is the global crisis and all actions have equal downward trend as an example FB.
Have a nice week.
Another thing in play, I think, is that people forget "This Too Shall Pass".
Pain is very hard to ignore while still present.
After it's gone and lots of time has passed, it doesn't seem so bad in retrospect.
Well, that's how it worked for me when I had two motorcycle wrecks when I was very young and broke the same leg and ankle.
Miserable in the cast, but I never suffered enough (or had enough common sense?) to quit riding.
I was saved from further distress by the advent of a "new" concept I heard about - defensive driving. No wrecks involving cars thereafter.
Close calls, of course.
HardToLove
I agree with you.
It's time to buy: When blood is in the street.
Already completed several years after starting my investment in AXPW and told: "Never before has the fundamentals and prospects AXPW been better".
Carlos.
Have a good day!
No question in my mind that all boats get stranded when the level of the lake gets very low. With Euro, FB, etc the lake is starting to look like a puddle.
have I missed something ? was something going on today I haven'f figured out?
I agree with pretty much all of your commentary in your last message, and my belief is that anyone buying in under a buck will do just fine, not certain I will be able to develop the patience to wait beyond Q4, but nothing I can do about it but keep all digits crossed !
Unfortunately , speaking solely based on my individual situation, anything less than 2 bucks for me, this time next year will be a disaster, those who have been in at much lower prices, and for a far shorter period of time, I have zero doubt will fill their boots a plenty !
When I express concern for Q3 and Q4 it is coming from a perspective of how black a hole am I willing to go into at the end of December. I survived ,25 cents this year. It will depend in part on the share price. I would hate to be staring at .15 cents in Q1 2013. Most important to me is what revenues are this year and what business has been is gained, Another small fairly low figure raise wouldn't scare me off. The possibility of no capital raise at all or a 10% discount capital raise on .25 cents and I'm gone.
http://on.fb.me/Lnjl3o
What are those?
As I walked by them, I was stupefied that they were not "shrink wrapped." Open air they were, but about to be used, because, remember, I saw that small mountain of empty battery casings last year. That's where the lead bars went, into those East Penn bound batteries (supposition).
It's amazing what you can learn walking through plants by reading information on machines and shipping labels. I can remember over the years covering such things for manufacturing plant tours.
God I am getting old! Whatever happened to chasing women?
#explainsalot
That should change in the future but for now its not helping the stock price and add in oil coming down. Its a strong head wind for any increase of interest or demand. Eventually there will be a shock or some catalyst that will get folks to start looking around again and then.....we will see. Dont expect it in this election year since green energy is an albatross around BO's neck and the press will probably keep the heat off by not talking about these issues as much as possible.
Thats my political take on the doldrums for the stock. It is of course only one of the things effecting it. Y'all have covered the others very well.
I may not get to get back in the $27 calls today.
But my $29s will do just fine I think. Don't want to get *too* greedy. We'll see.
Haven't said it for a while - thank you JP for making me aware that there might be some plays in Tesla.
HardToLove
I've not calculated how many more shares of AXPW are possible now from this, but I suspect in my wife's account, where I'm doing this stuff, a substantial increase would be possible if I want to go even more over-weight (Heh! Who am I kidding - it's in the cards and I know it).
As an example, the calls I'm holding (Jun $29 strikes) have a delta right now of .698. The December strikes at the same price are .645. Because they are in the money right now, they are a bit closer than they would normally be.
HardToLove
http://seekingalpha.co...
http://bit.ly/JtTVHi
I found it interesting how they discussed Axion -
"Also in the first quarter of fiscal 2010, the Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Axion Power, an advanced lead-acid development company in Newcastle, Pennsylvania."
Then another paragraph down, Exide discusses the grant but omits any mention of the grant being with Axion.
"In August 2009, the Company was awarded a $34.3 million grant by the United States Department of Energy (“DOE”) under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to increase manufacturing capacity of AGM batteries with and without advanced carbon technology. These AGM batteries are designed for Start & Stop, Micro-Hybrid and no-idle vehicle applications and enable improved fuel efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions. Our total investment including the DOE grant will be approximately $70.0 million for expansion of our Columbus, Georgia and Bristol, Tennessee facilities. Additionally, we received tax incentives from the State of Georgia of approximately $9.3 million and approximately $6.0 million from the State of Tennessee.
As a result of these grants, we expect to create as many as 320 jobs and expand battery production capacity by about 1.5 million batteries per year. These investments are expected to be completed during fiscal 2012."
Will be interesting to see how this changes in the 2012 annual report.
http://1.usa.gov/rYLqlv
The award went to – Exide Technologies with Axion Power International
The technology goal was – Production of advanced lead-acid batteries, using lead-carbon electrodes for micro and mild hybrid applications.
I am more interested in how Exide defines their relationship this year or if Axion is mentioned at all ...
Took 48.9% 5/17-5/22 (today), friction included.
Today's profit would buy us around 2,500 AXPW shares somewhere in today's price range.
So far, this is a lot of fun.
HardToLove
Others here should be aware that on another thread several "experts" could not figure out when some open interest contracts on BTU had been established -- but HTL led me to the answer instantly:
http://bit.ly/Mjc6N0
Thanks HTL for the insight you share so freely.
Burn-out with this stock abounds, tempers abound, but stocks are best bought during their "dog-days" when everyone else is doing their own soul-searching and questioning their own convictions. For when a stock goes parabolic, it is the easiest to buy, but also the most dangerous. When owning is *easy*, take caution. Obviously, owning AXPW right now is NOT easy... this is a contrarian signal.
The "sock-drawer" analogy is very much in effect. Too many positive developments are on the horizon.
Those would be wonderful words of wisdom for a company a couple years old but this one has been around quite a few years and the stock price is near an all time low. That is indeed either a tremendous opportunity to buy for the future or an indication that the company is going no where fast. Each of us must evaluate those two possibilities and risks before deciding what to do with hard earned cash. For now, mine is in other investments. Even if Axion makes a move up someday, it is highly unlikely it will be an overnight success. As for Axion being a "gift" at these prices, that remains to be seen. A low price does not always constitute a good buying opportunity, especially if the stock withers and dies. This one is teetering on the fence so its just a matter of which way the wind blows hardest. I think it's safer to "hold" the "gift" of cash at this point or better yet, put it where it more likely to grow.
This group seems enjoy convincing themselves that the more bleak the outlook and the harder the road, the bigger the reward will be. That kind of reasoning, more often than not will put you in the poor house. Good Luck.
Upon the release of the NS announcement I started buying again. The 3 of us in our investment club have almost doubled our stake in AXPW since the announcement. We now have about 50% of JP's holding and continue to buy as cash comes available.
We do not need the hope for an overnight success. That is a path that always goes nowhere. The company story works for us.
Since it is obvious this is not the stock for you I just realized you are probably gone forever and my post is falling on deaf ears. Oh well its my time to waste.
We've all heard the "reversion to the mean" as a common target for moves away from recent extremes. But how reliable is it? Well, not 100% and there's variations on it that involve Fibonacci percentages, etc.
But it's got a pretty good hit rate, from my unquantified observations.
Last time I calculated where (TSLA) would go to establish an exit point for my $29 long calls, I added a note to my chart that said $30.76.
We hit and exceeded it today and then closed at $30.79 at 15:59 today.
This in spite of the fact that Tesla announced their first deliveries to a few select customers will commence on 6/22, which gave a gap-up open and took pps as high as $31.34 today (I wish I had sold then!).
Where is this useful to *investors*? When a stock starts to run or drop, especially on no news, and you feel strongly there was no real reason for the move, use a "reversion to the mean" as a *starting* point for planning your actions. Then tack in any adjustments you feel are appropriate for external events, such as PR, economics, etc.
HardToLove
"Where is this useful to *investors*? When a stock starts to run or drop, especially on no news, and you feel strongly there was no real reason for the move, use a "reversion to the mean" as a *starting* point for planning your actions. Then tack in any adjustments you feel are appropriate for external events, such as PR, economics, etc."
I'm beginning to think that it's a blessing that Axion basically is flying under the radar these days. After looking at what has happened to Exide and now MXWL in the last month, I'm glad we aren't actively followed by the major rating agencies. MXWL barely missed profit expectations but get downgraded anyway, which caused the stock to lose 2/3rd its value. Not a friendly market out there.
The same sector rotation out of the altenergy sector merged with their slightly weak results and a few downgrade articles, all at the same time.
Ouch.
It may well prove to be a wonderful time for new investors (like myself, I am reviewing them closely) to enter, of course, but it represents a nasty setback for current investors.
# Trds: 36, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 32600, Vol 144015, AvTrSz: 4000
Min. Pr: 0.3450, Max Pr: 0.3650, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3596
# Buys, Shares: 22 102390, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3636
# Sells, Shares: 14 41625, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3495
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.46:1
Daily short percentage not yet available.
Unusual: 11K AH trades @ $0.35, but I can't guess if it means much based on what JP reminded about Quercus not having filed an updated form.
HardToLove
I was taught to follow the executives investments and if we are close to something big wouldn't everyone expect some buying to happen from them??
Just a thought !!!
MAP
I believe the board combined already has north of $20M into Axion. That's a lot of skin in the game.
First off the executives did purchase a boatload of shares when this company was in its infancy. They paid a lot more than the present price. Please follow the executives as you were taught. This mean you will buy more today.
Second: Why aren't the execs buying more today? How much should they own? If one exec puts an order in for 1000 shares at $.40 you then believe it is a good price?
I would suggest you simply determine for yourself what the value of a share of Axion is worth to you. My value or an Exex's value means nothing.
Now if you are saying that a major buy by an Exec is a buy signal to you then go get em. But don't spin the negative that they are not buying, as some excuse for the price performance.
Having said that and knowing their salaries why not average down some??? Just makes sense doesn't it??
Personally i will not buy anymore until i see sales increase. I am no way putting a spin on the price. But if i had inside knowledge of what the company was doing why shouldn't they add more shares??
So don't read into a spin that wasn't intended. All i know is i heard 300 % to no guidance and have been told they are a conservative bunch. So all i am asking is an investment question to learn. The share price is based on performance to me,,
All are hoping for it to increase, and i know some of you are adding. But i also know some big seller was bailing out last week, So my question was a simple one.
Did i miss a major buy by an Exec?? Eight and a half years ago is a lifetime to me personally and a different reason for those who took the risk...
I might add if i thought the stock was going to be at 2 bucks in a year and could buy it at 35 cents i would empty the vault..So i just disagree with your thoughts...How many shares is enough?? Enough is different for each individual...
Right now i have my quota...
The officers are the core, the inventors, developers as much as they are just management and, after all, busy doing useful work. Product is the focus and worrying about share price, in & of itself, is a distraction best left to folks, suchas yourself, that place some importance on it.
Amazing such foolish comments that i have to actually read...If the stock price is undervalued then you buy more....simple,,,,
Now why don't you add an educated reason why they should not buy anymore..
You are right. YOU have no understanding!! Keep up the insults. Just makes you look foolish.
Have a good investing life. I'll not bother you again. I rest my case.
Investors fighting, some wanting to learn but i guess frustration is setting in. Clock is ticking as June is upon us very soon. Promises of 300% growth ?
If i invested my majority of money here i would be worried also. Too bad this fun time seems to be breaking at the seams..
Most insider buying in public companies is done by directors and officers who don't have an appreciable amount of skin in the game. When directors and officers who already have multi-million dollar stakes buy a few more shares in the open market, sophisticated investors tend to view the buying as a thinly-veiled attempt to shore up or even manipulate a weak market.
Just as insider selling is not always bad, insider buying is not always good. It also gives rise to significant risks that somewhere down the line a disgruntled stockholder who sold at the lows will file a lawsuit claiming that the insiders took advantage of him because they knew far more about how good things were going.
My one experience with insider buying was with Ener1. Beginning of last year they were around ~$3. They started dropping continuously throughout the year and at aabout $1.50 Gassenheimer (the CEO) as well as the CFO started doing some buying. Within about three months the company was filing for bankruptcy and trading around .10.
Just from that experience I will never use insider buying as a buy signal, especially with small caps and especially when the price seems to be very undervalued. To me it shows management getting worried and that they have no other way to instill confidence in the company but to start buying; an attempt at a cheap fix for a weak stock price.
Hope that's helpful.
I just wanted to add another consideration.
Elon Musk bought a *bunch* of TSLA on the open market.
Would one seriously buy Tesla based on that?
My feeling is that insider buys or sells are only one of *many* considerations. And none of them, including insider buys, are in and of themselves the "be all and end all".
Having been following JPs stuff for a long time, I was already aware that they had *lots* of skin in the game. Their lack of buying more never bothered me one whit as everyone has to take care of family first and should have limits.
If they don't have limits, I don't want to invest with them.
MHO,
HardToLove
She would cut the balls off any executive who traded without her permission. There are very specific times when insiders of a publicly quoted corporation can trade and then on top of that there are other restrictions that apply when there are material discussions going on.
Given the dynamic situation and the very real fact that these guys do not make huge salaries it does not surprise me that there is little in the way of insider buying.
You obviously are uncomfortable with the company and the lack of insider buying. For your own peace of mind maybe you should sell.
Thank you for those educated answers. These i listen to and learn from. Just wish others would be as cordial, But been following this for a while so i know who to expect certain responses from...
map
Is that the only answer you can give, SELL?? i ASK A QUESTION AND READ BELOW WHAT is an educated response to a follower of a stock...In fact i have read a few of your posts in the past and you have been wrong many times. Appreciate you not worrying about my decisions...Thanks !!!
My advice to you is stop giving out advice...
map
Vani was out of work...He would have accepted $3 bucks just as long as he had a salary to help him survive!! Just a thought, lets see some fruits from his work then i will change my mind...
It really is quite funny how brainwashed the EV crowd are.
Hey, if JCI think there are 35m batteries to be sold and we can get Axion inide of 15% plus of them, I think that would be a good thing for us !
http://bit.ly/MFvari
Probably would have been worse if not for the fact that many of the coal fired plants being retired are being replaced by natural gas generators, and natural gas prices, due to fracking, are way down. Of course, now if we can only get all those fracking bans passed, then we can push that price back up!
http://tinyurl.com/cxk...
<
Obama’s war on coal hits your electric bill
By Phil Kerpen
Published May 22, 2012
| FoxNews.com
Obama’s War on Coal has already taken a remarkable toll on coal-fired power plants in America.
Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a shocking drop in power sector coal consumption in the first quarter of 2012. Coal-fired power plants are now generating just 36 percent of U.S. electricity, versus 44.6 percent just one year ago.
<
Of course, the impact on everyone's pocketbook might not be so much fun.
http://bit.ly/vCtfBg
<
The most common commodity hauled on the railroad is coal from mines in Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. The railroad also offers the most extensive intermodal network in eastern North America.
<
http://bit.ly/LCRDGc
Less coal-burning makes all kinds of sense for my children's future. Consider the cost to states that import coal:
http://bit.ly/JcYMGP
My state is on the list.
And yes, I understand that electricity prices are likely to rise. I am not expecting a free ride from less coal burning. But one also has to expect less asthma, less pollution clean-up, less economic catastrophe from global weirding etc. Sustainability = stability.
If you're worried about that some big picture.
http://bit.ly/LoK8zL
http://bit.ly/LqxSez
http://bit.ly/LoK8zM
If you're worried about its impact on weird weather put on your glasses with the funny fake eyeballs attached with springs and enjoy the ride. What you're seeing in regional trends has more to do with economic shifts that true reduction in consumption. The only thing that is going to stop it is cheaper energy (only option is N.G. and nuclear, really nuclear) or one of Darwin's thoughts. I think it's a 99.9% chance the last option comes into play.
I'll end my thoughts on the topic end here because discussing this is in the politics quadrant.
I love investing in energy efficiency. The cheapest kilowatt hour is one not needed.
It speaks to the need for better economic education in this country.
D Lane. You're absolutely right on that comment. We are very wasteful for sure. I think this is where we are and will continue to shine the most. Why? Because it's easy by comparison (Not intended to minimize or belittle the effort.) .
Negawatt ...
The things people will come up with to coin their efforts! In a positive way for the supporters and negative for the "Other Guys".
I'm liking my version of Negawatts. About two years ago we moved from our old house to one closer to my work and moved our kids daycare in the same way. Instead of putting the usual 12-15K miles on my Civic every year I'm now traveling less than half those miles. When I look at the gas, oil, and general wear on my car that I'm "not" spending on it, I like the results in my wallet and knowing I'm reducing my carbon foot print in a responsible way. Plus, since there are others around me doing the same thing, the test scores of our local school have gone up as the school has more resources to use from a larger tax pool! :-)
BTW, Proximity to necessities like work was my second motivator for house selection 25 years ago. You also mentioned another top two motivator.
BW & D-inv, this Fox article (if true....) is the most bullish item I have ever seen for Axion. Capacity charges have a huge impact on commercial and industrial electricity costs. PowerCubes should be extremely profitable (money saving) for industrial and commercial customers if those capacity charges stick.
The driver behind the increases in capacity charges is probably due to the increase in non-dispatchable power (wind, solar to a much lesser degree), as well as the burdens placed on coal-producers.
But we'll need them all for some time until some of the newer stuff hopefully gets better. (All in favor of fusion as one far off hoped for solution raise your hands.). Yeah yeah yeah..... We'll weaponize it. Oh we already did in one way!
I fear if we keep breeding the way we are we are destine to go the way of mold on bread with the baker on vacation. Or something will come into play to intervene. I hope we can steer the outcome vs the alternatives. Not easy choices to to be made but far better than waiting for "Unknown unknowns"!
PBC is one of those millions of little things that help at a very good price/performance ratio. If humans were just able to steer our creativity in the direction of constructive efforts better we'd be far better off. I doubt that will change.
http://bit.ly/LRU47X
If the CO2 impact data is valid humans are going to march right off the cliff. I happen to think the pollution and many factors regarding food/water will get many first.
No doubt and we are well down that path...
Looking at the past for signs of how various times in history living creatures have been stressed by different factors.
Not going to get into the evolution debate.
""We may be on the cusp of some very real disasters that have nothing to do with whether the elephant survives, or a cheetah survives, but if we survive.""
http://usat.ly/KRa05C
I'm a fatalist for sure and I sure wish the data left more room for debate.
:-) AGW to some extent is most certainly real, but CO2 is likely the least of the means. Land use change and water pollution (including biological nutrient enrichment) are much bigger contributors to climate change IMO.
I am long both coal and nat gas producers, but I was quite surprised to learn recently of a multi-year study just published in the Journal of Geophysical Research that suggests that methane and other chemicals are leaking from gas drilling wells at least at twice the rate reported by industry. So to date when the pollution comparison between coal and nat gas is made at the source of electricity production -- the measurements are not adding or taking into account the doubling of methane and other chemical leakage estimates at the original drilling sites.
At a minimum this latest multi-year research is "the latest volley in an intense estimate war under way in the scientific community about whether natural gas really is cleaner than the coal" and could ultimately either change nat gas production costs for well measurement devices or down the line change the status of coal to the cleaner energy alternative.
http://n.pr/K09Yci
Also an abstract and additional analysis with embedded links are here: http://bit.ly/Kxw5p4
OR - The 30-author study I referenced above can be purchased for $25 here: http://bit.ly/L6XY9K
Intriguing links.
I agree with John's repeated comments that there is no energy (battery) panacea...please correct me if I am wrong John.
Obviously, there is no source energy panacea either.
I have been encouraged by the NATGAS fracking story, but with the appropriate safety and long term affects studies ongoing.
We always seem to come back to efficiencies and storage.
I had not seen any data regarding losses of methane in the field due to production operations. Surely I can understand based on the technology and the process there will be loses but I guess maybe I'm as surprised as the researcher was that it appears as significant as some of the data seems to indicate.
As a side note, one of the things I like to do with areas of interest like this topic is to me, where I follow the topic but not in great depth, is to try to find stats that put the level of emissions in perspective by comparing it with other emission sources. I've not found a really good site that lays out man made emissions in various categories vs natural emissions such as permafrost melt or organic matter decaying in various fashion such as from termites as an example etc. I try to do this just to better understand the magnitude of the problem because the numbers on a global scale in a category might seem huge only because I'm not familiar with the big picture. So I might in fact be using the wrong scale for measuring the problem.
Anyway, I was wondering if you've found a site that has some break down on on the magnitude of various emissions sources for methane. I've looked some and haven't found anything yet. Will continue looking but you're far more knowledgeable in this area and thus might have something you might share.
BTW, Here's the termite article I found while searching for a document that breaks down methane emissions by source.
http://bit.ly/LveT3n
See what I mean by appears huge!
William Happer a Princeton University Professor writes that CO2 is not a pollutant. Life was abundant for hundreds of millions of years with much higher CO2 levels than are now present. Plants grow better and are more resistant to drought with Higher CO2, and doubling CO2 levels actually only increases global temperatures by 1%.
http://on.wsj.com/KOvLAH
http://bit.ly/MRMWb4
Former Senior Scientist of climatology for NASA, Roy Spencer, has a site where he shows global temperatures not increasing hardly at all over the past decade.
http://bit.ly/KOvLAJ
http://bit.ly/MRMZ6u
You may be overstating my "knowledge" in this space. I am not an engineer/scientist, but rather an MBA who loves to invest in ALL energy sectors -- so I read a lot -- and the debate regarding nat gas being cleaner than coal in my mind is still very much an open one.
In answer to your question, the only other site I have come across (besides EPA data) which has a breakdown of our global methane inventory (albeit a bit dated) is NASA's Goddard Institute which even includes the % for your termite contribution: http://bit.ly/KlWAAE
D-inv -- I think the variables you raise are worth noting and were addressed in part in the full research study I mentioned..
mj
P.S. I learn a lot from both of you re: the PbC - many thanks.
Yes, I had read your bio (impressive). Know who you're talking to right.
We have a similar interest in the energy sector. My favorite area is in the storage sector (really!) but you can't really fully understand a concentrated area of a sector without having knowledge of the whole sector and the elements that impact it such as legislation.
Anyway, These boards, with their diversity and talent, sure do help in collecting information and honing one's perspective. It's a real blessing to be able to participate in such a group for sure.
Thanks for the link.
P.S., I bet given your background and what you got to see while performing your mission, you were about as shocked by what happened in the financial sector as I was by GM's bankruptcy. No need to answer, just food for thought.
Given our common interest in the energy storage sector -- here's one which may interest you if you have not already seen it re: carbon capture and storage for geothermal energy: http://bit.ly/JPI0Nq
I have only one very small position in geothermal and its been a dog of a performer -- so maybe this technology will help the industry turn the corner over time.
mj
P.S. RE: financial sector management -- I was able to exit at an opportune time in 2008 -- for which I am grateful. I've never had more fun than what I am doing now!
Thanks for the link. I'm a big fan of geothermal where it makes sense. Not so much for carbon capture. That being said, where you can use CO2 as a process gas for extracting/storing thermal energy or as an input to extract additional fossil fuel output it might make more sense. Does it make enough sense so it will be self sustaining without government support over the long run? I'm not learned enough on the topic to know.
Please understand that my perspective is that if CO2 is going to be fatal to human kind I think the outcome is guaranteed. Not 99.999% but 100% guaranteed. Thus my reasoning of not adding any value to the economic decision making process for carbon sequestration into the economic point stated in the prior paragraph.
Please don't confuse my perspective on CO2 with pollution. Controlling the many forms of pollution is in my mind far more important to humanity than controlling CO2 (Not a pollutant IMHO) will ever be.
P.S. I'm happy for your successful exit plan isolating you from the man made economic chasm.
mj
http://bit.ly/oOTRzU
HardToLove
Anyway, Thanks for the article tying the level of water use to energy. GOoOoOoooo corn ethanol!
Clearly Natural Gas is no panacea and the perils of coal burning are well known. Neither is the answer for the future of the planet.
I recommend Tom Konrad for alt energy investors.
http://onforb.es/MYjpfO
Kentucky primary results (Obama had no opposition, but people could appparently cast votes for "uncommitted". Voting results with 119 of 120 counties reported.
Barack Obama – 119,284 57.85%
Uncommitted – 86,911 42.15%
In Arkansas, Obama had an opponent on the ballot. With 58 of 75 counties reported,
Barack Obama -- 59.10% 88,898
John Wolfe -- 40.90% 61,520
When an investor buys stock from a public company in a private or public offering, the cash flows from his pocket to the company's bank account. That cash increases the company's ability to pay salaries, buy equipment and implement its business plan. It's hard working money that earns its keep.
When an investor buys stock in the open market, the cash flows from his pocket to the pocket of a selling shareholder. The investment adds nothing to the company's ability to conduct or grow it's business and it's basically a simple bet that the market price will increase over time.
Active secondary markets are essential to the smooth operation of the capital markets because no investor wants to enter a room that has no exit, but they're the tail of the dog rather than the dog itself.
Over the course of a 30 year career I've invested over $10 million in the stock of client companies, but 99% of my transactions have been direct purchases of stock from my clients because that's where my money can do the most work and create the biggest benefit.
Commenters in this forum frequently speak of keeping *dry powder* for their next opportunity. As an old hand in the corporate finance business I can tell you first hand that when insiders think of keeping *dry powder,* they think in terms of conserving cash that can be invested directly in their companies if necessary.
Axion's insiders have invested over $20 million of their personal wealth in the company's stock. Every penny of that investment went into Axion's treasury where it was used to implement Axion's business plan.
If I had a million dollars of cash lying around today that I wanted to invest in Axion, I'd be on the phone with Tom Granville negotiating the terms of a direct investment in Axion instead of buying in the open market because that's where my money would do the most work.
Directors and officers of unprofitable public companies who buy shares in the open market do so for one reason and one reason only – they want to create a market perception that the stock is undervalued. If they're serious about their companies, they put their cash to work in those companies instead of giving it a selling stockholder who wants to take his wife to the Bahamas for a weekend.
Thanks for providing the above background on insider buying. You have answered some questions that I had lurking in my mind.
I've been involved in any number of discussions over the years where PR types wanted management to buy stock in the open market because they thought it would help the stock price. In every case I advised my clients to avoid behavior that I viewed as manipulative.
In a big profitable company where the managers are hired guns who have no skin in the game, open market purchases are often the only option. In small unprofitable companies, open market purchases are usually manipulative.
An O/T question for anyone, PM if you don't want to clutter up the blog;
As part of my recent severance I will be getting a large lumpsum payment next month. I have been using Etrade for a number of years, but considering other options. I'll be putting the dough in a traditional IRA. Any thoughts on TDAmeritrade, etc? I'll probably be buying more AXPW, LOL.
Also, I believe it is true that if they believe they are near a material announcement, they cannot trade the stock. (SEC rules)
A simple example is the rumor we heard from Axionistas who attended the ESA and heard Vani Dantam mention that NS wanted to build a fleet of 50 to 75 battery-electric locomotives. If a director or officer bought stock today and news of a monster order was released within a few months, then people who sold their stock at $.35 would have a great lawsuit.
Frankly, if I saw any of Axion's directors and officers buying stock in the public market I'd be depressed as hell because I'd interpret it as a statement that there was nothing important going on behind the scenes.
I honestly try to word my questions with respect. However since some in here felt i was a troll i believe they interpret it differently. Us New Yorkers like to get to the point.
I also, just learned a valuable lesson that there is a difference between a hired gun and a true investor in the company, I never knew that !!!
Now this DOE Grant....Good news as i read it, am i wrong??
map
I use TDAmeritrade for my IRA funds. Works ok. I don't do the level of analysis as HTL, so it gives me everything I need in a pretty easy to understand layout. A couple of things to keep in mind. You usually get a certain number of free transactions when you sign-up. After that, all trades are $10/trade and it doesn't matter what the size is. Also, don't rely on TDAmeritrade's news section to give you all the latest news on the stock. They only give you the major news outlets and market watchers. Stuff like John's articles you would never find with their information filters.
Back in February I wrote an article that included a graph from Lux Research that separated the micro-hybrid market into light, medium and heavy sectors and showed the expected ramp of each sector through 2017. – http://seekingalpha.co...
I'm far from unbiased, but I see a very good chance that the PbC will own the heavy sector and be a strong competitor for the medium micro-hybrids as well.
My # 1 gripe is with the software development group's lack of participation in the customer support experience. Reported bugs, when accompanied by logs, debug, snapshots, offers to participate by one with over 30 years in computer systems in many areas including 20+ as a developer, ..., should be fixed in an expeditious manner.
They are not.
Disclosure: with my background, I might expect others to meet my standards, which I know is wrong.
My number 2 gripe is that when they let their app designers go to work for the beautification or whatever, we lose features or real estate. Both are important to me.
On the positive side, they do well for me when I have questions or need other types of assistance. But I'm a "frequent trader" that puts me in "Elite Platinum" support territory. I don't know how they treat the rest of the folks.
They have pretty good support for research, guidance right on their web site and access to financial planning advisers is also available.
They don't offer much for trading on foreign exchanges or much for forex that folks like us might want to use.
They are a bit more expensive than some other places, on a per-trade basis, but I figure that helps support the resources. If you don't trade much, that's not a consideration I guess.
HardToLove
Axion Power was one of 75 companies out of a total of 764 applicants to earn an award in the first phase of the DOE's program. Grant funding is expected to be available to Axion Power by late June of this year and Phase I will conclude 10 months from that date. According to DOE documents, Phase II awards will be granted to approximately 50% of Phase I awardees and will conclude in 12-15 months. Phase III will follow shortly thereafter.
http://yhoo.it/JcGK7C
The details contribute to the timeline we all should be considering for the commercialization of the PbC in micro-hybrids.
While we feel confident that BMW has the PbC in its future plans, we can't know their minds and timelines.
Phase III of this program doesn't even start for another 12-15 months.
Micro-hybrids are likely to be a huge market for the PbC but that may not materialize for another couple years.
No, I'm looking more at locomotive hybrids, Powercubes and mini-Powercubes for the next couple years.
D
1. Its free money.
2. Since Phase II is about $1M, we can assume that phase III would award a multiple of that (if the award is still around, American debt etc.) A multi-million dollar award at the end of 2013 - 2014-ish, depending on how the funds are allocated could afford them at least one or more electrode lines that would drastically help a healthy ramping of commercialization right at a time they will most likely be needing it.
So, looking at the big-picture it is a good thing and just because it is small and puny now does not mean it can't significantly contribute to commercialization in 15-18 months from now. Which might be the perfect timing. The key here is the award is to help fund commercialization of the PbC, while I believe commercialization is underway this might come at the tail-end of the transitioning helping to boost capital significantly.
The best guy I've ever seen when it comes to working the SBIR system is Howard Schmidt (the Chairman of Axion's Technology Committee). Before I did the world's first carbon nanotechnology IPO for Howard in 1992, he funded his company with $100,000 in investor capital and a total of $3.3 million in SBIR grants, excluding the $1 million of SBIR grant applications that were pending on the date of the IPO. In a later gig as executive director of Rick Smalley's Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory at Rice University Howard had first tier responsibility for managing all of their grant solicitation, reporting and management activities.
Axion's DCA white paper has been readily available online at Axion's website for some time, but traffic at that site is limited. A report to DOE on award funded activities/findings has substantial potential for reaching a larger audience and may provide a vehicle for disclosure of some information not published to date due to NDAs, That could help generate public demand growth for PbC-based Start/Stop autos. But, if the PbC has not won a Start/Stop design competition before phase II of the DOE exercise begins, I will look to PowerCube, and rail locomotive applications for AXPW survival.
I see the DOE grant as good PR that doesn't change what the company is doing. It's kind of like the on-site PowerCube at Axion. They got a grant from Penn. to help pay for it. So now they have a unit up and running for potential customers to come see and for them to get data from. It didn't change their focus, but it was useful funds to help get their product out there in the public eye. I see the DOE grant in the same way. It's not going to change their testing with BMW, NS or any other OEM that they are currently working with. But it helps get their PbC out in the open and, as has been mentioned by others, allows them to generate data that can be shared openly, unlike other testing that is probably tied up in confidentiality agreements. So I see it as a nice plus that will help them promote the PbC.
Thanks for providing the link. However, was the information was caught and posted by Stefan Moroney in concentrator 103. Don't recall seeing you post to the concentrator previously. Welcome and thanks for making an effort.
Excellently well written PR has much technical content that is worth discussing in this forum.
-.Dual battery architecture for micro-hybrid vehicles. Ratify AXPW: Dual battery and certainly in that direction works BMW.
-.Next generation micro-hybrid vehicles will, and in some cases already do, include added features such as regenerative braking, "sailing" (i.e. turning the engine off as the vehicle slows or coasts below a pre-determined speed) and perhaps some form of battery assist to the initial vehicle acceleration.
-.The lead-acid battery is not designed to suitably provide the dual function required in today's micro-hybrid vehicles.
-.The system will be equipped with: alternator generator.
-.The PbC battery, on the other hand, has been proven to quickly accept full system charge (i.e. no loss of charge acceptance) for more than 5 years of usage. This advantage translates into much greater "engine off" time resulting in much greater fuel economy with significantly reduced Co2 emissions.
I get the feeling that the DOE will be a good source of money to be able to expand its plant AXPW (10 more lines).
Have a nice day.
Carlos.
My thoughts too.
Agreed...well written PR.
Some commenters posted why it wasn't released earlier.
This was well worth the delay for clarity and "selling" the AXPW story.
Given the timing of Phase I, II and III, I don't see this as an "event", rather a continuation of the AXPW story.
Nicely worded.
S
I love this blog.
your my hero.
Was wondering when you were going to get around to that. I've been hoping you had it in the works since Feb, when the DOE should have received it. Thanks.
Well, that, yes. And the fact that I'm too busy to figure out how to do a FOIA myself, so I was hoping that Brishwain would do it again, since he's done it in the past and knows how.
Looks like the Atlantic Wind Connection (HVDC backbone off the U.S. east coast for wind turbine farms) has passed a hurdle that allows Atlantic Grid Holdings to start an environmental review.
http://bit.ly/LoNmDo
A link in that IEEE article brought me to another that contained an amusing energy storage methaphor:
"Transmission has always been the elephant in the room when it comes to renewable energy (with apologies to energy storage; let's call that the mildly smaller hippopotamus in the room)."
http://bit.ly/Lg1rQG
The PowerCube can hereby be renamed the PowerHippopotamus!
But I would disagree that storage is less important to these projects than transmission...
I would have to reverse those priorities, and I believe the reason they don't do this is that they know well that the transmission issues can be licked easier than the storage problem.
Out of curiosity. What's the voltage?
The DC voltage looks to be +/- 320 kV. That's a bit higher than I thought (I expected 500 kV).
http://bit.ly/Jdsc7z
Mitch
What I like to try to read into this, and maybe I'm wrong, is that most probably the DOE does not see the offerings from groups like ALABC as the magic bullet they postulated during their recent lead enhanced negative electrode offering presentation in Europe. If it was then it would win hands down from a cost perspective and they wouldn't support this effort by Axion. Yes, it was a different application of the technology but it still reflects on the improvement in the negative electrode to a pretty high degree in the areas of life/charge acceptance. We know but's it's nice to know they are paying attention. With all the blind lithium chasing they are at least still looking around.
Just my positive reading of the tea leaves it trying to determine DOE's motivation. Yes, Perhaps in spite of all the efforts to ignore Axion the darn thing still makes sense. Who'da thunk it.
I just don't think that it qualifies as *important* news that he couldn't talk about. Heck, when we found out about the grant on Monday I was wondering whether Axion would even bother to put out a release.
The DOE grant is a nice feather in Axion's cap, but feathers won't cut it when many Axionistas are waiting for a chicken dinner and some of us are expecting a Butterball Turkey.
I thought we were waiting for the Goose that lays golden eggs!
Unless you are a researcher and your livelihood depends on getting research funding! :-)
# Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 43610, Vol 323294, AvTrSz: 4369
Min. Pr: 0.3400, Max Pr: 0.3698, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3510
# Buys, Shares: 16 102860, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3578
# Sells, Shares: 46 206044, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3475
Buy:Sell 1:2.00
HardToLove
We've got higher high and lower low on increasing volume - a sign of change in trend likely. This configuration is not unusual before a reversal.
We're, effectively, clearing the weaker hands from the holders. If there's as few of them as things may be suggesting, this shouldn't take long.
MHO and lots of guesswork, as usual,
HardToLove
and precious metals
The last couple of days, I noticed the sales right before the market closing have been small sales and the price is also lower than most of the sales of the day. Please comment! Thanks 08
But first, note the new concentrator below posted originally by APH.
http://bit.ly/Lr1AjH
What we have is buyers who are bottom-feeders, generally, that know if they wait some "weaker hands" will eventually turn loose of some shares at a lower price.
So most don't move their bids up.
Then late in the day the "weak hands" who really want out come in with reduced asks, eventually hitting a point where someone says "close enough" and makes the buy.
Moreover, in the trend we're in right now, making a bottom and starting a reversal or consolidation I think, this is typical stuff.
In my insta last night I suggested we were about there and thought we might catch $0.37 today.
Didn't quite make it - got $0.3698.
But I do believe the down trend is over - check out today's late closing action when we went from almost no volume to a nice push up in volume early in the last 21 minutes. So instead of having sellers make *big* late-day adjustments down in the ask price, we had willing buyers who made small upward adjustments in what they were willing to pay, figuring the price might not come to them and they don't want to miss too much of any up move.
The size of the trades also increased, on average.
If you're asking because you're considering an add point, the best time recently was a few days back when I suggested in my insta that $0.33 would be good. I suggested it wouldn't be seen again.
Although I'm loathe to suggest anyone buy or sell at any particular point, I do believe we have made the low, near-term, and I hope to see a steady grind up begin, rather than a pop.
If we can get that pattern going, the small pauses for consolidation that typically happen on a sustainable move up will be essentially pain-free.
MHO, still learning, very experimental, and HTH,
HardToLove
http://seekingalpha.co...
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