Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Inactive.
  • Axion Power Concentrator 108: May 30, 2012: U.S. DOE Awards Grant To Axion Power International For PbC® Batteries In Micro-Hybrid Vehicles 209 comments
    May 30, 2012 8:08 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    U.S. DOE Awards Grant to Axion Power International to Fund Commercialization Plan for PbC® Batteries In Micro-Hybrid Vehicles

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated May 25th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Concentrator Comments:

    (updated May 25th)

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (209)
Track new comments
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Well that's one way to get around poor battery life/charge acceptance. But Cha-king that's expensive. I'm not sure this makes much sense for passenger vehicles. And hydraulics are generally a pita.

     

    "Among its several other features, the Q3 comes with one button start/stop technology and a hydraulic regenerative braking system."

     

    http://bit.ly/KVl6IC

     

    Some reference material from Bosch/Rexroth.

     

    http://bit.ly/KVl4k7;jsessionid=cba3gPlNN9...
    30 May 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco,
    What is one way to get around charge acceptance? I missed something.
    30 May 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Well that's true Futurist. It still doesn't help with the hotel loads which is the biggest problem.
    30 May 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    OK. We are tracking. Took me a moment to figure out your statement.
    30 May 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Gas prices by country. Thought this might be a good side bar to put efficiency in the right light. Of coarse the affordability number is important not only the way they present it but on a personal level as well.

     

    http://bloom.bg/L4nj62
    30 May 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    iindelco > http://bloom.bg/L4nj62

     

    I'm confident many will find the comparisons presented rather Interesting. The presentation would be much, much more informative IMO if presented in in PPP (purchasing power parity) dollars rather than cast in "average daily dollar equivalent wages".
    31 May 2012, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 5/30/2012 EOD
    Min. Pr: 0.3400, Max Pr: 0.3650, Close 0.3500, VWAP 0.3488
    MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol 389900, AvTrSz: 10538
    # Buys, Shares: 18 239300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3500
    # Sells, Shares: 19 150600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3468
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.59:1
    DlyShts 157100, 40.3%

     

    HardToLove
    31 May 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1362) | Send Message
     
    iindelco >
    a bit OT, but Japan is about the only country that does a decent job of balancing road fuels tax with road maintenance/construction costs. For Japan to have such high petrol tax indicates that they spend a lot of money on their roads.

     

    Which is quite mercantilistic of them, tax an import (fuel) to fund better roads (increases fuel efficiency, spend less on imported fuel, spend more on domestic jobs).
    31 May 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    renim, Yes based on a quick scan it appears they do in fact steer a significant portion of their fuel tax toward their road maintenance/construction costs. Also noted that they have a pretty healthy tax on vehicle inspections that are diverted primarily toward the same purpose.

     

    http://bit.ly/LJtkAR

     

    http://bit.ly/MbuV8n

     

    In the US it goes into the general black hole.
    31 May 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Hey John!

     

    Your anti-hype article made SA's must-know news this morning!

     

    "Obama's electric car program stalling. The White House's $1B+ attempt to build an industry of companies that make batteries for electric vehicles is going flat. Firms have few clients ..." and a link to your article at the end.

     

    Put on the chain-mail armor - EVangilicals will probably start a second wave attack!

     

    HardToLove
    31 May 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    "...EVangilicals will probably start a second wave attack!"

     

    ...and THEN some...WOW!
    31 May 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Their little heads will explode this weekend, and not in a good way.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    "..."Give 'em Hell, Harry!". Truman replied, "I don't give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it's Hell." "
    1 Jun 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I like that line.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning:
    Omy is in trouble, lost his Message Boards. We must be aware that individual that one or other similar enter on this board.
    Have a nice day!!
    31 May 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about this forum on Seeking Alpha is that the APH group has moderation rights and can delete nonsense with a click. They're very judicious about using that power, but they do have it.
    31 May 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    FROM THE WSJ

     

    Car Battery Start-Ups Fizzle:

     

    http://on.wsj.com/LMYz1u
    31 May 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Our tax dollars at work.
    31 May 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Gives the impression that they are ill-advised and help those who are headed for bankruptcy.
    Carlos.
    31 May 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Repurposing other peoples money with no functional background and too much "Good advice" from people with self interests. A really good way not to get to where you want to be. In addition too many Americans think they can spend a whole bunch of money up front in a short time frame to create or fix things. Just doesn't work that way. Well not often and it's not exactly efficient if it does.

     

    Hey, if we need more money we'll just print more.
    31 May 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    East Penn expanding warehousing. Must be for increased flooded and Ultrabattery sales.

     

    http://bit.ly/LN22gx
    31 May 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    "Neste Oil sues Dynamic Fuels, LLC, Syntroleum Corporation, and Tyson Foods for infringement on NExBTL-related patent"

     

    http://bit.ly/KAwEBJ

     

    NS bio-fuel supplier.

     

    http://bit.ly/LJGCgD
    31 May 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    From the NYT:
    In Italy, Electric Buses Wirelessly Pick Up Their Power

     

    http://nyti.ms/LN688o

     

    No details on the batteries used.
    31 May 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    The electric buses in Italy using inductive charging are using

     

    "Lead-Gel battery 180 Ah"

     

    http://bit.ly/LJP4fQ
    31 May 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    Close coupled inductive energy transfer makes good sense for fixed route bus systems. The more often you cycle the batteries the more "bang for the buck" you get. Just think if they used longer life PbC batteries that could take much higher charging rates and so soak up more energy for a given length stop over a charging coil.

     

    Using a lower energy storage (smaller and lighter) battery with a higher power rating would be a good thing. Less total vehicle weight = better overall efficiency.
    31 May 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    From Greentech Solar:

     

    Guest Post: Germany Faces a Growing Risk of Disastrous Power Blackouts

     

    http://bit.ly/KAJUGJ

     

    Can anybody say *Energiespeicher*
    31 May 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    My my. That works out to somewhere around 2/3 Euro for grid improvement over the next 10 years for every Watt of RES now on-line.

     

    So much for lowering the cost of power with "green" generation. And they still need to add much more dispatchable power in the form of gas turbines or similar to prevent serious grid disturbances!

     

    The joy of grid scale wind and solar generation just never stops. It almost seems that adding $0.50 per Wh of battery storage might be more cost effective then the addition of more fast response generation combined with grid improvements. Does that seem correct to anyone else? JP?
    31 May 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I keep getting snippets of news that Germany is looking at storage in a BIG way to solve the intermittency problems they already have. So far nothing has been concrete enough to write about.
    31 May 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Der VolksKubben! ;)
    31 May 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Ford Fusion supplier for SS.

     

    "The Fusion will use a more durable 12-volt lead-acid battery, called an absorbent glass mat battery, purchased from Johnson Controls Inc."

     

    http://bit.ly/KAKW5t
    31 May 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    thanks iindelco, cat's out of the bag but not a big surprise...
    31 May 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Tim, In one of their presentations JCI mentioned that of their new capacity coming on line 80% was spoken for.
    31 May 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, iindelco. The $295 price tag gave it away.

     

    Yesterday, I all but told the Ford Service Manager that the s/s Fusion was coming equipped with a JCI AGM battery.

     

    Feel like calling him back, and then asking for his email address to send along the studies that show his service department is possibly going to have a new challenge coming his way.

     

    I should do that with all Philly-area Ford dealerships ;-)
    31 May 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "Tim, In one of their presentations JCI mentioned that of their new capacity coming on line 80% was spoken for."

     

    Smart! also, they must be saving that 20% for our friends at Axion <smile>...
    31 May 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "I should do that with all Philly-area Ford dealerships ;-)"

     

    What a great idea! maybe we should all raise the awareness of the Axionistas local Ford dealerships <wink>
    31 May 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    This may sound like heresy, but I wonder if Axionistas have underestimated AGM technology. If we assume Ford is not staffed by idiots (surviving the meltdown without government handouts is a good indication), it seems unlikely Ford would be proceeding with a technology that is destined to become a serious customer service issue in a few months.

     

    I have read the numerous comments about how AGMs will fail "gracefully", i.e., the car will still operate, and that many consumers are not going to bother if the s/s works less often. I've read the "best available technology" comments.

     

    My question is more along the lines are we blind to Axion's competition because of faith, not facts? Why are we, the very few stockholders of Axion, so much smarter than the engineers at GM, MB, Chrysler, Ford, et. al., and the "smart money" (not Kramer).

     

    Hubris is dangerous: the Challenger explosion and Tesla's brickings and energy sloth are good examples. Are we preaching to our choir and missing something obvious?

     

    Axion's total market cap is pretty trivial (at $39m) relative to the amount of money sloshing around looking for deals. What do "they" (the intelligent "they", not the herd) see that we are missing?
    1 Jun 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    Generational technology improvement to optimize customer sales. The first generation of S-S with a relatively cheap single battery solution does 5% fuel savings but two years later, wow, the second generation of the technology increases fuel savings by 20% with dual battery architecture.

     

    I feel the AGM is a great battery and will be the mass market winner for light micro-hybrids and will be the first battery used in Stop-start in North America with single battery architecture. I give the AGM a lot of credit. I hardly believe the PbC is even in competition with the AGM anymore since the release of Axion's white paper. The white paper Axion released not only shows where the PbC is stronger than the AGM but it shows that they are actually in two different categories. The PbC solves DCA and cycle life issues that the AGM has, it doesn't make the AGM worthless it just separates them into different categories of use.

     

    In the short to med-term AGM will dominate because...
    1. Single battery solutions resulting in fuel savings of 4%-10% that will do half the fuel savings of heavy micro-hybrids with dual battery system architecture is the bread and butter for AGM, especially in the first generation of stop-start systems.

     

    2. AGM has been around for a long time in Europe it has proven itself as a viable product if limited in its abilities and it has improved itself if only slightly. OEM's have already designed their first S-S systems around this battery for N. America because this is something they have been working on for years, long before the PbC was much of anything except to BMW.

     

    The large OEM's do know what we know. Apple new their 2nd generation of iphones would be better than their first but it did not stop them from getting the ball rolling with the first one.
    1 Jun 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Excellent thinking.

     

    My take is that (F) is just doing what started across the pond when there was no option and they want to be sure they are competitive on the PR landscape. If we assume a slightly different driving profile in the U.S. vs. Europe, except in a few very large metropolitan areas, the exhibition of symptoms should be less, overall, here and the warranty and service (recharging the batteries and a lame excuse to the customer) should be less.

     

    So they buy PR time while the new best thing(s) progress toward being commercially available.

     

    It's quite intelligent, IMO, from that POV.

     

    Ford gains PR green cred, experience with actual performance in customer hands, seems to have a low initial downside until the lawyers and regulators step in.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Scale issues probably had a significant influence on their decision.
    1 Jun 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    We should not forget the odd institutional blindness regarding batteries and tires. These are the only two major components that come on new cars which are not branded by the car manufacturer (and never have been in modern memory). They are singled out in the literature supplied to the consumer by the manufacturer as having their own warranties from their own manufacturers, and they bear the branding to match. This washing of hands when it comes to these particular components is exceptional, and given the history, may be impacting this topic.

     

    In the event that government changes their rules (it would appear there is no downside for the manufacturer for the slow demise of the S/S system in the current rules) and problems rebound on the car manufacturer, it is entirely likely that they will shift the blame to the battery manufacturer (just as they have done with tire manufacturers in the past). If nothing else I would expect them to create a blame "sharing" strategy.

     

    All it would take for this situation to change in a radical manner would be the addition of a single line to the emissions regulations requiring that the S/S system battery support full operation for 5 years, which would be a reasonable requirment since similar rules exist for many other emission systems.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    While I've spent more time discussing the BMW-Axion presentation at ELBC 12, the BMW-Ford presentation was more important.

     

    http://bit.ly/KXTW3N

     

    This presentation was a shot across the bow of the lead-acid battery industry telling manufactures that their products were not good enough for the automaker's current products and a true impediment to the products the automakers want to produce.

     

    It was an ultimatum - get your game on and bring it up a couple notches from AGM, or we'll go to something newer and better like the technological whippersnapper we thanked on the last page.

     

    Two years later the big lead-acid manufacturers are still claiming that AGM is good enough because its the best they can build. So unless you're willing to assume that BMW and Ford were bluffing at ELBC 12 you have to know they're not happy.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your assessment of the past tripleblack, but think the automakers may not be able to play the blame game in the future because stop-start is being sold to regulators as fuel economy and emissions control. Regulators don't care if your satellite radio and navigation malfunction, but they care a lot if your emissions control equipment malfunctions. It's a different dynamic and one that may well bring the blame game to a screeching grinding halt.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    What kind of conditions do you think a big battery company would need to inject capital into Axion? Would they settle for sharing earnings, or would they demand an exclusive arrangement?
    1 Jun 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    If I were a battery manufacturer, I'd be reluctant to inject capital directly into Axion unless I could control Axion, which I think the board might find objectionable. A more sensible approach for me would be to offer a joint venture relationship on a new electrode facility next to my battery plant in Smallville. I'd go to Axion and say something like this:

     

    "I want to make a million PbC's a year in my Smallville plant but I really don't trust your ability to satisfy all my requirements for a component supplier. So instead of using you as a component supplier, we'll pay the cost of building an electrode plant to your specifications in Smallville, you'll contribute a single site volume limited license to the PbC patents, we'll agree on a transfer price to my Smallville plant and we'll share the profits in an agreed ratio. For the life of the joint venture you'll be the technology management partner so that we can ensure that Smallville always makes state-of-the-art electrode assemblies. We, however, will run day to day manufacturing because we have decades more experience in that discipline than you do."
    1 Jun 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    I like that very much. Thanks.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • motoyama
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's WSJ article on page B1 ( I have no e-version, therefore no link. ) " Car Battery Start-Ups Fizzle. "
    "Johnson Controls Inc. used Government grants to build a battery plant in Holland, Mich., but that facility is nearly idled now after its main customer went bankrupt." is this the same factory as you stated ?
    1 Jun 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Rick

     

    An appropriate cautionary flag.
    "Ford is not staffed by idiots"...anymore, since Mullany arrived.
    But I wonder if they (Ford) just have several lines in the pond (then pick the best fish...aka technology)...purely gut feel...I think of a synergy with Mullany and TG leadership.

     

    "Hubris is dangerous...missing something "
    I get uncomfortable with Axionistas' premature enthusiasm, with all due respect to Axionistas...is it BW who keeps preaching we need sales or another more solid announcement?
    AXPW (and the market) are still still subject to too many traders "gaming".
    (and world economic dynamics)

     

    Having said that, I continue with my own (non techie) due diligence, read carefully constructively critical comments from you et al and supporting articles...John continues to posit solid strategic theories with hard info.

     

    Damn it...we need STORAGE...and AXPW has it...THAT frustrates me!

     

    Maybe it is just time...and timing!
    1 Jun 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    I think that Alan Mulally's arrival with his background at (BA) was the saving event for (F).

     

    Unfortunately, when I was looking at Ford in the $2 range, I didn't know much at all (compared to now when I know a wee bit) and didn't jump on it.

     

    Missed opportunity - another step in the long learning curve.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Project Quark.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/KjoT4Q
    1 Jun 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (424) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Ford's going to learn its lesson the hard way.
    31 May 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Ford has been using AGM in their European stop-starts for a couple years and they're well aware of the problem. That's why Ford and BMW gave this joint presentation at ELBC 12 in Istanbul.

     

    http://bit.ly/KXTW3N

     

    Knowing that you have a problem is important, but until a proven solution is available in relevant commercial scale you just have to live with the problem and finish testing and validation on your solution.
    31 May 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Bylo-

     

    Understandable...but I just don't see Mulally making that mistake.
    He and Ford have come too far.
    IMO, he has alternative plans or options.

     

    JUST my gut talking.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    Exide is closing the Frisco recycling plant. Wonder how that will affect earnings going forward?

     

    Anyone know why Dr. Ed Buiel, former Chief Technology Officer (CTO) left Axion to work at Pellion Technologies?
    31 May 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Rick, It's been discussed in the past. He's still on contract. Having such a high caliber person on staff with full pay becomes an issue at some time for a company the size of Axion. That they still have his expertise on call is probably sufficient give where they are in the launch process.
    31 May 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I think it has also been put forward that Dr. Buiel is of a mind to "retire" to pursue other interests & projects that don't relate to Axion. He's done a fine job for Axion and knowing he's still available (only a phone call away) is a good thing to know. My understanding is he hasn't really gone away or actually retired (in the move to Florida & shuffleboard sense of the word).
    31 May 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I missed previous discussion and just recently noticed the change.
    31 May 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Yeah, He's still a youngster. I'd say most likely other interests apply.

     

    http://bit.ly/KuZ2VI

     

    The fact that he's moved on and is still available tells me he contributed what he and the company felt was necessary and he's off to pursue other interests. Given the money going into the area I doubt he is having a problem finding R&D work that stimulates his areas of interest.
    31 May 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    No problem Rick. That's why we're all here.

     

    Data entry and refresh cycles!
    31 May 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I also believe personal issues factored into the decision. Ed was a lot like me in that he's much better at doing the work than he is at supervising the work. Some of us just love to get our hands dirty up to the elbows. While I like New Castle, it's a pretty small town for a 30-something family with young children and diverse interests.
    31 May 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    The Frisco plant was build long before anyone lived there. This is the same as building a house next to an airport, and then complaining that it's too noisy.
    31 May 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    I agree. But times changed and the city grew up around them. I think it is probably about as good a resolution as possible, given the fear expressed by the neighbors and ongoing litigation. But I wonder about bottom line affect. Perhaps it will be discussed at the next CC.
    31 May 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... Exide is selling off the buffer land, 180 acres, and retaining the licensed site, ~ 40 acres which will be prime real estate with the next growth spurt. The company is only responsible (pending pile-on lawsuits) for cleaning the licensed acreage. I don't think it will hit the bottom line too hard. I understand that production there has been cutback and redistributed during this land grab/environmental quality dispue or whatever it has been referred to. I guess we'll find out come June 8th.
    31 May 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Might demo / cleanup costs take a substantial bite?
    31 May 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... It will definitely take some money to clean up the property, but Exide still owns it and has license to operate (when it expires I forget but it is several years). The cleanup can happen at a leisurely pace over years and I've seen nothing in all the EPA & Texas documentation says anything about excessive pollution levels anywhere on or off site. It has been there for years so I'm sure there are "Hot Spots" ... not SuperFund levels.
    31 May 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Don't know how it will effect long term earnings, but in the short term $45 million is a nice chunk of change for the land. Screws the workers there of course, but the city says they are working to find them new jobs since it is the city that is basically forcing the closing of the plant for land development.

     

    http://bit.ly/JROH8w
    1 Jun 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The fascinating question will be how the sale price of the land will stack up against the environmental remediation costs on the retained parcel. The accountants will want to accrue the remediation expense right away and that will punish earnings to some extent. If the gain on sale is bigger than the accrual it should be a non-event from an operating results perspective. If the remediation accrual exceeds the gain on sale, there could be a one-time hit to earnings.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... The bean counters are such a pain. I have never figured how they can accrue an event expense with no idea what's involved. I've seen it done several times with varying results, so I don't doubt that is how it will be done. Just doesn't seem rational to me.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The rules require companies to accrue expenses when the legal liability is fixed even if the amount is uncertain. In cases of uncertainty a good faith estimate of the amount must be accrued. In some cases it's a major problem, but it's usually better to take the pain early when you can offset it against a gain than to defer the day of judgment and charge the costs to operating earnings.

     

    There are any number of accounting rules that I have a hard time stomaching, like accounting for unrealized warrant appreciation for example, but others like recognizing environmental liabilities promptly make a lot of sense.
    1 Jun 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... So Exide's land sale would just be a wash until actual expenses were known?
    1 Jun 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    He is working at Pellion Technologies in Cambridge, MA., building magnesium batteries.

     

    http://bit.ly/Kv1taA

     

    He is mentioned in the article.
    31 May 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    481086,

     

    I love how you always look at the the glass as half full. My first thought was that the SS market might be developing more slowly than anticipated. I did not think of it in terms of PbC opportunity. Thanks for giving me another possible conclusion. :)
    31 May 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Last week JCI came out and said 35 million stop-start vehicles are planned for 2015. The most aggressive figure I'd seen prior to that was a 39 million by 2017 estimate from Lux.

     

    This market is growing far faster than even I imagined.
    31 May 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Keep Hope Alive! :)

     

    (Disclosure: I rooted for JJ in the '88 primary)
    31 May 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Electric Vehicles Move to the Passing Lane

     

    http://bit.ly/KYKWeX
    31 May 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    "Tesla is the one pure play in electric vehicles that I would be willing to bet on right now."

     

    "Fool contributor Travis Hoium does not have a position in any company mentioned."

     

    :)
    31 May 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    Was it just me or did that article seem as light as air?

     

    Happy happy EV EV joy joy

     

    Sorry, I was channeling Ren there for a moment.
    31 May 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    My friends and former clients in the wild well control business would have said "light as a popcorn fart," but they always were a bit crude.
    31 May 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Ki2ynR
    31 May 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    "bit crude."

     

    A hidden pun? As in "crude oil"?

     

    HardToLove
    31 May 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Actually there was very little crude in their business because you didn't call Boots & Coots unless the crude was blowing and burning. They were fun though. Something about walking into a burning oil well with a half-ton of dynamite makes the good times a little sweeter.
    31 May 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Ya hafta wonder sometimes if we're on the same planet as the EV guys?
    31 May 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Maya, An FYI for you and the crew going to the End of World party.

     

    I wasn't aware of this and just bumped into it on Yahoo. Looked on line quick and they do have some recommendations for repellents. An ounce of prevention.......

     

    "Chagas, a tropical disease spread by insects, is causing some fresh concern following an editorial—published earlier this week in a medical journal—that called it "the new AIDS of the Americas."

     

    More than 8 million people have been infected by Chagas, most of them in Latin and Central America. But more than 300,000 live in the United States."

     

    http://yhoo.it/KilmTW
    31 May 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    I have heard about chagas; all the more reason to smoke Honduran cigars!

     

    I would be more worried about dengue fever.

     

    No problem with that either, though, because about two weeks before 12/21/12, Copan will likely be sprayed.

     

    http://bit.ly/KOBHgj

     

    To my knowledge, there has never before been a case of chagas in Copan, Honduras. I've spent about seven or eight months there, and have never seen the bug, nor heard anyone even talking about it.

     

    Thanks for the tip! Ironically, your timing is perfecto! At 7:00 tonight, I will be interviewed via a pilot Internet show about the ancient Maya.
    31 May 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Oops! Just learned I've been moved up to a 6:30 slot. Cramming....
    31 May 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Well I'll be. The pilot show, I guess, went off really well. Was invited for another episode coming maybe late next month...and it will be an hour long. Half hour went by faster than a finger snap.

     

    Way easier nerves-wise than speaking to Cub Scouts or 7th graders, as I have done in the past, or being on TV in NYC.

     

    I gotta get over that, beyond that...!
    31 May 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Congrats. Now you can settle back with a chilled one and bask in the glow of emerging fame!

     

    HardToLove
    31 May 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Old report on LAB for storage in solar and wind applications -

     

    http://bit.ly/LjnZkC

     

    Axion has a passing mention ...
    31 May 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    ...and the demand keeps on coming!

     

    Renewable Energy Can't Run the Cloud
    Data centers now consume about 1.3% of all global electricity.

     

    "Missing here is any awareness of the enormous quantities of electricity Facebook and other data-intensive technology companies require. Those requirements expose a fundamental mismatch between the high-power-density world of Big Data and the low-density electricity production inherent in most renewable energy projects."

     

    http://on.wsj.com/JUHT5c
    31 May 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Cheap. And a 3 year warranty added.

     

    "At FGCU, a shot of solar efficiency"

     

    http://newspr.es/McWE8L

     

    http://www.redflow.com
    31 May 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    A123 Systems 8K filing says substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern; status of grants and incentives

     

    http://bit.ly/Lb1u1f

     

    Today it seems that two contestants left out of the race: AONE and MAXWELL. One of them goes straight to bankruptcy (AONE) and the other very out of tune.
    There is only one horse running in the big derby: AXION POWER and looks like the big winner.
    Have a good night.
    Carlos.

     

    Nota: Today I received the Annual Report.
    31 May 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    ...and then we have the politics of a legitimate bridge fuel...and they don't even mention Mercy's "leaking" issue link...always gets back to storage..storage...sto... that be nice!...Tora...tora......

     

    Sierra Clubs Natural Gas
    The green lobby picks its next fossil fuel target.

     

    "The battle plan is called "Beyond Natural Gas," and Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune announced the goal in an interview with the National Journal this month: "We're going to be preventing new gas plants from being built wherever we can." ...The political irony is that not too long ago the Sierra Club and other greens portrayed natural gas as the good fossil fuel.

     

    So why... The answer surely is the industry's drilling success. ...
    ... now that the hydraulic fracturing and shale revolution has sent gas prices down to $2.50, the lobby fears natural gas will come to dominate U.S. energy production. At that price, the Sierra Club's Valhalla of wind, solar and biofuel power may never be competitive. ...."

     

    http://on.wsj.com/M2CQ4Y
    31 May 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) EOD: Well I almost had a panic attack today: while responding to a PM about how yesterday's short sales (~40%), some ... "less than astute" (IMO) sellers came in and started just dumping in the $0.33x range.

     

    Prior to 11:18:41, with an average trade size of 4,844 (not bad - in the upper mid0range of what we used to see), we had a $0.3437 WVAP on 43.6K shares (after a *really* slow start - 1st trade at 10:18:15).

     

    Then BOOM (in inverted order) we saw 96,444 shares go at sub-$0.34 levels - VWAP $0.3331.

     

    0.3350 5000
    0.3310 5000 11:36:09 AM
    0.3310 4000
    0.3310 4000
    0.3310 4057
    0.3310 500 11:31:59 AM
    0.3310 15000
    0.3331 30000 11:28:00 AM
    0.3350 10000 11:25:37 AM
    0.3350 10000 11:24:26 AM
    0.3350 4987
    0.3350 3900 11:18:41 AM

     

    Then the bushwhackers just vanished and we finished with low volume (who came blame anyone for holding off after that?) of 18,023 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.3422, essentially what we were at prior to the ambush.

     

    Now, in spite of that, our stuff is looking right in the recent normal range - even daily short sales came nearly back to "normal" at 19.2%.

     

    So, some days of $0.33x low (which I thought would be gone after 5/18) and $0.34x lows has been our pattern since 5/18. Generally, our highs have been getting higher though, regardless of which side of the world the Eurozone is getting ready to fall off today. We caught a $0.3698 one day and a $0.38 5/29.

     

    With fluctuating volume, erratic highs and lows, ... it just shows the indecision. This often precedes a change.

     

    My sentiment? I tried to buy a nice chunk of those $0.33x shares today but never got filled. Some of those might have been "backroom deals" because I was top of the bid side for a while and watched trades go right around me for an aggregate quantity meeting or exceeding my bid size. And I had bid # 2 primed and ready to go.

     

    That ticked me off, so I canceled my order.

     

    Well, here's the daily stats.

     

    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 375, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 158067, AvTrSz: 5099
    Min. Pr: 0.3310, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3370
    # Buys, Shares: 14 35080, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3367
    # Sells, Shares: 15 114987, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3362
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 8000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3500
    Buy:Sell 1:3.28, Daily Short Sales 19.2%

     

    HardToLove
    31 May 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    My .33 program went unfilled as well, HTL.
    31 May 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    I had the balance of a GTC order @ .338 finally filled. I thought it was going to expire at some point, but I'm glad to add them to the fold.
    31 May 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Mama said "There'll be days like this". Yes, days like this is what Mama said
    31 May 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    THE CUMULATIVE COMMENT COUNT IS 19,936 with the comment count on this Concentrator standing at 74. Assuming no additions to the archive, a comment count of 138 on this concentrator will take the cumulative count to 20,000, a wholly meaningless number that's impressive nonetheless.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    John...

     

    ...and of course your "Anti-Hype In Lithium-Ion Batteries Foretells Doom For Electric Cars" continues to soar...389 comments in less than 3 days!
    Wow...did you hit that EV nerve again!
    1 Jun 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The current pageview count on that article stands at 14,043, which takes it to #5 on my all-time favorites list.

     

    It still has a long way to go to catch "It's time to kill the electric car, drive a stake through its heart and burn the corpse," which now stands at 40,492 page views.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Hell, it's going to be very difficult to beat that attention catching title.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    SOMETHING WE MIGHT CONSIDER.

     

    I have no idea what the dry powder situation is among the Axionistas, but if there's enough serious interest we might be able to put together a buyer's syndicate that would approach the big sellers with a lump sum offer that would take them out of the game at a price that would be attractive for both sides. I don't know who the sellers are right now, but if we had the buying power put together I'm sure we could find out in short order and open direct negotiations.

     

    If you're interested drop me a PM with your name e-mail address and level of interest. What we lack in individual strength we may well have collectively.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1258) | Send Message
     
    JP a public discussion of investment minimum would likely add interest to the idea. also, an idea of who we are going to approach. what is this gonna cost if nothing comes of it and how do we approach those expenses.

     

    THEN a private discussion for those interested.... maybe i am wrong.

     

    as far as taking them out- well looking at the global sell off and continued eco problems in the pipe i'd expect accelerated selling no matter what. ideally any deal we make would be in before axpw tries to raise money. i guess it'd be even better if large sellers were out in the next three months without a syndicate.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    This won't be an expensive process, meaning it won't cost anything if it doesn't work and costs will be on the order of normal friction if it does. The nice thing about a group acting together to buy collectively is there really doesn't need to be a minimum at this point. Somewhere along the line that answer may change but I don't see any reason why it would. I want to minimize public discussions at this point because there are many people who read this board and I'd hate to have something discussed here used as a negotiating chip by somebody else. The less we say in public the happier I'll be.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I'm surprised by that comment John - why the urgency?
    1 Jun 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Articula ... Urgency? Something like this could take a very long time to put together.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I'm just suprised that we are trying to wrangle everyone in to buy? Why now? Do we all the sudden feel a weakness in the company? I'm intrigued to understand the timing of this play.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    I think its a great idea as it should provide support for the offering price. Alas, many of us have our investment funds tied up in IRAs. I think unrestricted cash is what's needed. On timing, it has been suggested the offering will occur sometime in the fourth quarter... so time could be short for this kind of thing.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    There's no urgency at all, but I think the number of available shares is getting into a range where the group might have enough dry powder to pull it off at an attractive price so that the stock could begin a return to its natural level instead of wallowing for an indeterminate period of time. I just threw it out as an idea to see if there was any interest.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I'm interested - I guess I just need more selling on why the price isn't natural right now. Is the market being inefficient here?

     

    Sorry for the questions - I have interest but am doing my due diligence on why we are bringing this up now.

     

    Thanks as always,
    Justin
    1 Jun 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The market dynamics over the last two years have been characterized by a very small number of large old holders sitting on the bid and selling their entire position. A couple weeks ago somebody came in with a preemptory offer that dropped the bid to a level that froze the 2012 buyers out of the picture. There are only a couple of holders with enough stock to be able to do that. The only ways to deal with holders like that are to take them out over time or make an offer to take them out entirely. The proposal I made is a game that's usually reserved for the professionals because individuals never have the required financial depth. The group on these Concentrators is cohesive enough that they might well be able to play in that league with a bit of coordination.

     

    I would prefer that this be an offline discussion because these kinds of things are best done quietly.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Agree: I also have the mechanics of how I want to do it as I try to keep ~90% of my activities in an IRA for now.

     

    But I do think that it would also offer the potential for reduced angst on our part and a very attractive price at the same time.

     

    For me the mechanics of the IRA and being currently overweight and considering going more so, with attendant opportunity cost, is going to require some thinking.

     

    Here's an example of why.

     

    This A.M. at 9:56 when (TSLA) was trading $28.38-$28.54 (my target was $28.55), I closed out my one-week old long put position at $2.55 (opened at $1.85). Gained 34.34%, friction included.

     

    If I took all gains from the TSLA trades to date (begun 3/22 after JP made me aware of the opportunity) and bought AXPW today at $0.335, TSLA would have bought 9,679 shares for my wife.

     

    With markets behaving as they are, do I want to go even longer and hope I don't see tons of more opportunities flow by while I sit bereft of cash to do things like this?

     

    Deep thinking required. For me, there'd be no reduction in angst as patience and a detached (emotionally) attitude obviate that item. So it's really down to do I want to become a 100% investor and take on the waiting game or continue to straddle the fence to take opportunities as they arise to "compound" my powder.

     

    BTW, nothing on the TA front to stop TSLA from going to $27 now - but I'll, as usual, wait and see what develops. With emotional EVangilicals likely lurking, they might see $28 as a "Great Price" and drive price up - and I'll try to take advantage then too.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Articula ... I'm no genius about share priced but a pro I trust has done a little DD (I wish he'd share the methodology) and determined Axion is selling below liquidation which he figured is something like $0.38-0.43. If there is nothing but the clearly visible business, NS & tolling LAB, the stock should be trading around $0.45-0.54. Add just a little more ink on paper ... $0.85 (?) ... and a growth multiple ... well, I haven't a clue.

     

    So I'd think that the price isn't natural and he wonders what's wrong with the investors. The caution I get is that not much will happen until the current !@#$ storm passes because the battery is not out in the wild and no one knows about it or what it can/can't do.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Totally agree with your analysis HT.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    I have heard a lot of people voicing their interest in trying something like this over the past year or more that we have known about large sellers. JP is merely throwing something out there as a small possibility in response to those voices.

     

    I am a small fish but I would be interested in participating, if there is a possibility of us getting something off the ground.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding idea, IMO. Well worth a try.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    I'm interested.

     

    Canceled my program buy at .33...
    1 Jun 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I'm a little worried about what happens to PPS in the meantime if the Axionistas cancel their current buy orders, but I guess we'll just see what happens. (I hate negative unintended consequences.) At the least, it's a reason to move *quickly* on this plan (if it's going to happen).
    1 Jun 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Precisely.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: IMHO only, pps *now* really is only important as to buying opportunities. Until you sell there is no "real world" loss, only "paper losses" as to current portfolio value?

     

    And what is that? Only three things - ability to liquidate quickly if cash is needed in the real world, a "yardstick" against which we can measure our progress over time, and a "virtual value" against which we can draw to buy more stock in a margin account.

     

    I think most are in a stock like AXPW for long-term and really have no interest in meeting short-term real-world liquidity needs with that stock. So, can we strike that from the list?

     

    If so, only the latter two items *may* have consequence and each of us must assign our own weighting.

     

    For me, I ignore the effect of AXPW on portfolio for now and measure only against shorter-term activities.

     

    Maybe around 18 months or so it will become more germane to me.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    My personal horizon for AXPW is about 2 years, say late 2014 or early 2015...

     

    Assuming we can halt the bleeding soon. Otherwise I cut my losses and add it back to the "interesting company, watch to see when it gets its act together" list.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    HTL: There are also, however, the negative consequences of low PPS when it comes time to finance (= offering more shares to bring in the same amount of money). Obviously, this plan is meant to bolster PPS prior to financing, but I'd prefer it didn't bolster it beginning from an even lower level.
    All the same, I note that volume has dried up today, and I can't help but wonder whether its perhaps not a coincidence: it is at least *possible* that our seller reads this blog, saw JP's plan, and pulled back on the throttle. After all, the seller wouldn't want to crater PPS prior to the arrangement. How likely is this? I don't know.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: I *suspect* today's low volume is just a natural after-effect of someone that wanted out badly yesterday getting it done.

     

    Bottom-feeders hope for more of the same, and wait. Longs that might be looking to sell want a better price and wait.

     

    I don't know how much "market fear" might play into it and being a "Flat Friday".

     

    All supposition , but that's my best guess.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    "Pigs will fly on Friday the First" ... Is this not the pits, the miserable bottom? Is this not hell, or (like Sparks, NV) are we only just seeing it from here?

     

    Everything just feels in the turlet. I guess this is the destruction part of creative destruction... europe imploding, china thudding, jobs stagnating, budgets near and far burning...mideast geopolitical foo aplenty in the offing...

     

    Is it me, or is this all starting to feel like the last higher-g turns as one finally draws closer and closer to the drain?
    1 Jun 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty

     

    "... it is at least *possible* that our seller reads this blog, saw JP's plan, and pulled back on the throttle..."

     

    I have wondered about the dynamics of this as well just in the normal course the AXPW trades, even prior to the plan proposal.

     

    What is that phrase, a "new normal"?
    1 Jun 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    >" ... is this all starting to feel like the last higher-g turns as one finally draws closer and closer to the drain?"

     

    Closer and closer to the drain for the Obama Administration.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    "A thing that can't go on forever, won't." Reality trumps political fiction every time. For reference, see europe. The thing is, it's always on its own schedule. And right now the schedule is ripe.
    1 Jun 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3623) | Send Message
     
    A weakness in the company is different than a weakness in the stock. The supply and demand situation is such that many here would like to add to their positions. I don't sense an "urgency" or a "wrangle" here but merely an idea for us all to ponder.
    1 Jun 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty "... negative consequences of low PPS when it comes time to finance ..."

     

    Agree 100%. That's why I started off with "... IMHO only, pps *now* really is only important ...".

     

    We sure don't want the next issue to price as the last one did. For that issue I'm of the opinion that subsequent progress resulting in various PR releases should boost the price to some more reasonable level.

     

    If we don't have such between now and then I would start to seriously wonder if we had major problems beyond the low share price.

     

    I don't expect a flurry of PR, but a nice sign of progress (semi-?) monthly with some "meat" in them should be sufficient I would think.

     

    It might be something as simple as continued earnings increases that meet or exceed "expectations" (even just continued FLA revenue indicating continued competency in the manufacturing process). Any news from (NSC) about the "Green Goat" hitting the rails and "meeting or exceeding expectations so far" (ah, that might be hoping for too much given the time-frame though), etc.

     

    We've got Rosewater active and they will be at a show in September - might have some good news out of that based on the background JP has provided about the past success and competency of those folks.

     

    Oh well, end of random (hopium-based?) thoughts,
    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget, the big confab is in three weeks. We may be in a bit of (good) information drought right now, but it does have a time limit...
    1 Jun 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Tom Konrad article in Forbes on Exide that mentions Axion Power positively, discloses a position in AXPW:

     

    http://onforb.es/L3c7VM
    1 Jun 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the article Lefferty. I have a buy in for Exide at $2.15.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1570) | Send Message
     
    I believe its the first time in many months that he has said he is long AXPW.

     

    He probably bought yesterday at .33.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I know Tom well because I usually publish first on his altenergystocks website. He's had a healthy position in Axion for over a year now. He doesn't mention it often because I mention it so frequently, but Tom is clearly in the strong hands category.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    I took note of this in the article: "Exide is also well placed to benefit from the adoption of Axion’s PbC technology, since the two companies have worked closely together in the past".

     

    Is that really true?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I've been meaning to go back and try to research when the Exide agreement might expire based on how the relationship has progressed.

     

    I have to think that the Exide relationship is about as meaningful as an old 3rd grade valentine might be to a 50 yo by now. Although they still have the relationship called out in a European Exide site,
    1 Jun 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the door is closed and locked, but the burglar bars probably are.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I keep holding out hope that the AGM line they are building with that DOE grant will actually be used for what the original grant said it would be used for, to produce AGM batteries with Axion's PbC electrode in them. The line is supposed to be up and running by the end of the year. We'll know one way or another by early 2013.
    3 Jun 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    I have a question...appreciate some help. Does the price of oil have an effect on Axions future sales? My concern if oil still continues to drop will companies just slow down on start/stop cars?? Also if another recession does indeed hit us will going green take a back seat??

     

    Thanks
    1 Jun 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    I don't think so. We need efficiency whether oil is $50 or $150/ppb. that will never change. If the market crashes cheaper efficiency will do all the better, imo.
    1 Jun 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    All the forward looking clean air regulations are still in place with required MPG stats. A bad economy may reduce the amount of new cars produced, but cheap oil won't make much if any difference. JMO
    1 Jun 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Also, don't forget that the EPA is forcing better mileage and lower emissions; it doesn't matter what the price of oil is, as these laws will be enforced. Same with utilities and the railroads; better efficiencies with less polution is what the EPA is pushing.

     

    That's exactly what the PbC excels at.

     

    But no doubt about it, greenteck got whacked and still is getting whacked from the economic disaster we are still a long ways from climbing out of.
    1 Jun 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    New President....do we even have an EPA???

     

    Smaller govt could mean some fat will be trimmed to save money...I know it is a stretch but it could happen..imo

     

    map
    1 Jun 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    MAP, I do not see much direct correlation to oil price and Axion sales. The technology, regardless of subsidy or mandate, is basically economic, and directly reduces local air and noise pollution.

     

    A consumer auto burning 400 gals/yr should save about 20 gals/yr, or $80. The S/S system has a 3-5 year real payback, no gimmicks, "carbon credits", or subsidies needed. An elevated oil price may somewhat increase demand, or might lead to much stronger demand for full hybrids, like the Prius.

     

    Will PbC dominate the S/S market? Remains to be proved. Will other technologies compete for market share? Probably.

     

    S/S is only one part of Axion, of course. Micro-grid stabilization (including oil rigs) will definitely become more important with rising oil prices, as most micro-grids are diesel-powered or use diesel for backup/reserves. The economics should be very strong (subsidy-free), although they have not been discussed extensively on these boards. Military micro-grids are likely to be a strong, price-insensitive sector, independent of oil prices.

     

    Utility grid stabilization is highly regulated and has a lot of strong competitors. I question how effective Axion will be in such a politicized market. In any case, utility grid applications are totally independent of oil prices.

     

    One segment of grid connected that may become very interesting is customer peak shaving (as opposed to utility shaving). Most commercial and industrial customers have to pay for "capacity" (maximun demand) based on their highest consumption during the month. Capacity charges have skyrocketed in many areas, curiously correlated with greater wind and solar penetration. PowerCubes may be part of a solution to reduce these charges, and be immediately profitable. Eventually I will work up some numbers to publish here.

     

    Locomotives are another potential large sector. Rising oil prices should increase demand, and pollution regulations will likely support the market even with low oil prices. Capital cycles may play a big role in implementation, independent of oil prices.

     

    The bigger issue of oil prices, world economy (financial Armageddon), random (ridiculous) regulations, etc. will certainly have a big impact, but my crystal ball is not very good for black swans.

     

    Summary: I think Axion has a low beta to oil prices and probably a beta <1 to financial markets, although it has some significant variability (risk).
    1 Jun 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    MAP: As a Libertarian I have never seen the need for 50 state EPAs plus 1 Federal. Rather redundant... Either we junk the Constitution and reduce the States to "provinces" and forget the whole idea of "United States" (Maybe just rename ourselves "America"?), OR...

     

    Toss the Federal EPA.

     

    California seems to want to do their own thing anyway...
    1 Jun 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1258) | Send Message
     
    what president is actually going to get congress to "trim the fat"?
    1 Jun 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, can't agree with you on this one tripleblack. When it comes to keeping the air and water clean for everyone, I'll trust a centralized regulatory agency before I will trust 50 independent agencies who operate on what's best for "my" state first and the heck with the rest. California may be a pain, but at least they are always pushing to make things "cleaner" than what is mandated by the FDA. A lot of states would prefer to go the other way. IMHO...no thank you.
    3 Jun 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    No problem LabTech. States rights is a discussion that always has two sides (if not multiple).
    3 Jun 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    So, what does everyone think the name of the new country created under a truly Federalist Constituion should be? I like "America" (some of us exhippies might even put forth "Amerika"), but maybe we should stick with a long name, maybe the "Federal Union of America". FUA for short.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    RICK...Thanks for the reply, but i am in the camp that actually expects oil prices to decrease. If we have a worldwide recession ( may have one now ) then the need for oil will be reduced.

     

    This is an Election year so i am going to toss this year out the window pertaining to the markets. Too much manipulation going on. I understand the need for meeting the EPA requirements but if car sales decrease, like jobs in May did, i just see some GOING GREEN going out the door.

     

    As for who will trim the fat? Mitt seems to have done that plenty of times with companies he has taken over. He didn't become rich by being nice. But i also know it is a longshot. Having said that my Brother in Law worked for the court system up until a year ago and was laid off as was 5 % of the staff.

     

    So even the POTUS has started the ball rolling already.imo
    3 Jun 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    China sets standards for LAB production entropy reduction.

     

    http://bit.ly/KRfw9p
    1 Jun 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    It's basically a squeeze out of the mom & pops. New plants have to be in the million battery a year range to meet the minimum volt-amp-hour target. Small plants have to be in the 400,000 unit range within two years. I'm not a fan of a command economy, but the Chinese do seem to do it efficiently.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Read the special article in this month's Economist. They'd argue against them using their capital efficiently ;)
    1 Jun 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I was just talking about the efficiency of government command and control. I suspect their economy is as rife with inefficiency and cronyism as everywhere else (except perhaps the PIGS)
    1 Jun 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    THE COUNT IS NOW 19,991 with 125 comments showing in the header. Who will be number 20,000? Inquiring minds want to know.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    And now, a break for something purely techno-geek.

     

    After some pondering, I believe the concept of adding an electrically powered supercharger, combined with an exhaust driven turbo-supercharger, is a winner.

     

    The only reason for having any auto engine over 1 liter or so is to produce the torque needed to accelerate for freeway entry and road passing. Hybrids add a large electric motor to gain that capability, along with a 1-2kWh battery.
    There is also a substantial amount of heavy mechanical hardware needed to accommodate the motor in the form of gears and clutches and etc.

     

    Adding an electric supercharger to the engine package is conceptually and mechanically simpler. Its purpose is to quickly increase the engine power by at least 50% for the 3-10 seconds needed either to accelerate the car and/or to allow the turbo-supercharger to come up to speed and take over the boosting task.

     

    If the electric supercharger is only going to be used for a few seconds at a time it can be designed such that heat builds up (is stored) in the metal structure rather than being cooled at "steady state" conditions. I call this "inertial cooling". It allows a substantially smaller and simpler motor. It would include a temperature sensing system to prevent it from being damaged by unusual situations.

     

    This concept allows a smaller ICE that can run at 60-100% of load (without boost) 99% of the time. Turbo-supercharging technology is decades old and very mature.

     

    We know this basic idea works because of a high miles/gallon concept car that has recently been demonstrated. My memory fails me on who build the car.

     

    Needless to say, the electric supercharger would require lots of energy for a short time. 20kW or more wouldn't surprise me. But a 42V PbC supplying 500A would do the job, thanks to its capacitor like power capability. Remember 20kW for 10 seconds is 56 Wh. That could be a relatively small 42V PbC battery.

     

    Seems a cheaper and faster way to 50 miles/gallon compared to the rather expensive "heavy hybrid". Although it doesn't include inertial energy recovery, that could be added at some level, possibly with an enlarged alternator/starter already used in S-S designs.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Sili, I commented about superturbocharging on http://seekingalpha.co.... JP's link to the technology was http://bit.ly/xSrwbM

     

    I see you mention a 42v PbC battery. Does that exist? Why 42v (21 cells)?
    1 Jun 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Rick, The auto industry has been looking at 42 V for a long time as a standard. As you probably know this does not mean that the battery has to be 42 V.

     

    http://bit.ly/yjYSXq
    1 Jun 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I sorta remember research being done by the auto community on higher voltage batteries. I also though of 3 ea., 16V batteries at a 14V SOC. Less than around 40V starts requiring relatively large wire for the system to provide 20kW.

     

    Do you think 20kW is a reasonable number for the electric SC? I consider it as a "pre-boost" for the turbo-SC, so it doesn't have to provide peak pressure for the manifold. A brush type, no PM, DC motor might be a good choice from a cost benefit viewpoint.

     

    I knew others ( you, obviously) have commented on this subject but I can't remember who or where. I just though I would toss in my nickel about how the PbC would be ideal for the high power and low energy needed for the electric SC idea.

     

    I hope to see other demonstrations in this area of tech.
    1 Jun 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    lindelco, thanx for link. It is a little dated....from p. 4 it forecasts (from 2003) that by 2010 "a quarter to half of all new batteries" will be 42 volt systems. Didn't quite happen...

     

    The article explains "42 volts" is the approximate voltage to charge three 12v batteries in series. "36v" and "42v" are synonyms; charging a 12 v battery requires c. 14 volts.
    4 Jun 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Yeah it's pretty old but much of the information concerning motivation still applies as you might imagine.

     

    This was a hot topic in the auto industry already when I started some level of work in the sector back in the 80's so it's been around a long time. The costs to convert are enormous and the motivators become much greater with current petrol/metal prices and government regs. I'm sure there is more recent significant activity in the area with corresponding information for those that wish to dig deeper.

     

    Electrically powered devices are doing nothing but increasing in auto apps and the need for higher voltage distributed energy is doing nothing but going up. But the ramifications of higher voltages on thing like emi etc. make the move a difficult one as you can well imagine.
    4 Jun 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting day: The S&P went flat on the year.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Siliconhillbilly:
    Congratulations for your comment. Definitely in this forum there are people who know about batteries and electric and I think you are one of them.
    Have a nice day.
    Carlos.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Carlos. My knowledge of finance is weak, but I do have 40+ years of direct experience in electrical, chemical and physical technology.

     

    [[ WARNING! Old Fart techie "war" story follows ]]

     

    In the early 70s I actually conceived and demonstrated an electrically simple fuel injection technology. Only temperature sensors needed and no digital computation required.

     

    Cheaper computing power and better/cheaper sensors made my concept obsolete within about 5 years. Now I'm glad I didn't sink more money into developing the idea !
    1 Jun 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    A couple of data points of interest.

     

    "AlumiFuel Power Expands Its Visibility in Multi-Billion Dollar Back-Up Power Market More Major Industry Players Taking"

     

    http://bit.ly/L3uQhr
    1 Jun 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Sexy, Cool and Electric?

     

    http://bit.ly/KxZ5jq
    1 Jun 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    We have a winner! Iindelco was No. 20,000 at 3:07 and 481086 gave us a fatigued but undefeated start on the next 20,000 at 3:10.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    Cripes, kind of fitting. The newest rare talent techno geek of the bunch gets the prize.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Look at the bright side jakurtz, you have the more colorful avatar.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Oops, I tried to avoid the slot for one of the longer term contributors.

     

    Oh well, I get to join a wonderful group of people sharing a common interest and I get a door prize as well.

     

    Now if I could just learn to count!
    1 Jun 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Careful John, Don't upset the turtles. You're outnumbered!
    1 Jun 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    We turtles are winners.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Yep! We are "shell shocked"!

     

    <ducks shoes>

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Kermit said it all man, it's not easy being green.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    What I love, JP, is that you're tracking this so closely. I thank you for all of your efforts and fantastic insights.

     

    I've said it before, and most likely will say it again, that on the night of June 20, 2011, when I wrote my summary of the last shareholders conference, I had no idea the Axion Power Concentrators would evolve into such a collosal trove of information in your favorite sector; energy storage.

     

    If anyone would have said to me that in under ten and one half months, that the APC comments would exceed 20,000, I would have told that person the same historic line that appeared in the movie Battle Of The Bulge..."Nuts!"

     

    Well done, John.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    Well done Maya. It's one thing to create a community and manage it like I do with the blog. It's far more impressive to breathe life into a community, back away and watch it take on a life of its own. I've never seen anything like this group and your willingness to create it and then set it free is beautiful. I'm beginning to sound like a Metro-Barbarian.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Arrgh.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Yep, And Kermit chooses red as his first choice too. Darn starfish!

     

    http://bit.ly/Mgdrrn
    1 Jun 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    No, no, iindelco, its "Har!"

     

    All us turtles talk like pirates y'know. Its traditional.

     

    (Ignore the surfer dude they hired for Seeking Nemo, he's from California anyway).
    1 Jun 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    anyone have any tissues??

     

    ( i also duck )

     

    map
    3 Jun 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Occam: With King Dollar rocketing, I'm not looking to establish any new postions for some time. It looks like we're doing 2011, and 2010 all over again. I don't foresee a bottom forming until July, maybe August. I could be wrong.

     

    I'm not following the markets as closely because I'm no longer actively day trading like I was back in 2010, and early 2011.

     

    Back in 2010, I called the July bottom three days before the legendary Doug Kass did (with assistance from John Lounsbury). John and I both saw the SPX Relative Strength Index was as low as at anytime since, I believe, 2002. But alas, I was in Honduras then, and the uncertain electricity down there made it very dangerous to day trade. Recall kiddingly over in Quick Chat that CNBC should pay me the big bucks for that call!

     

    And for the record, later on, John Loundsbury and I both joked that neither of us acted, or were brave enough to act, on how we both agreed the 2010 year bottom was in ;-)

     

    I believe this year will pan out pretty much the same, even though it's an election year. Suggest to keep an eye on the RSI for SPX, and the Williams %R indicator, one of my favorites I used for intraday trading.

     

    One of the things I failed to mention when my Wells Fargo broker was talking to me about a Axionistas Rights Offering, was that he, a few weeks prior, recieved a call from Sen. Bob Casey, a democrat from PA. Casey told him he expects that the Bush Tax cuts will be extended in 2013, for six months to a year...no fiscal cliff coming.

     

    That's some pretty cool inside the beltway opinion from the dude that wasted Rick Santorum the past election, a democrat to boot, especially since my broker is a known republican.

     

    Further, though not from Casey, my broker expects there will be no QE3, no matter what Europe does.

     

    All this info is obviously subject to change at any time.

     

    Plan accordingly.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (610) | Send Message
     
    siliconhillbilly: Thanks for a terrific post that I think highlights the opportunity that the PbC represents as well as the conundrum we Axion investors face. The PbC capabilities are enough beyond incremental improvement that it enables dramatic change in the applications which takes much time to digest.

     

    While PbC in a stop-start application isn't make or break (as we can see with short-lived AGM batteries), it would be in an application such as you describe that dramatically scales down the size of the engine. In that case, you really want to essentially redesign the car around the battery. So, if we have now gotten to the point where BMW believes in the battery, now they can start the multi-year process of redesigning the car, which we should? see before the end of the decade.

     

    This isn't a criticism of your idea, just an acknowledgement that this is really going to be a long haul but that the payoff could be amazing.

     

    I was speaking to my sister about Axion the other day (I've got her in Axion of course) sharing my concern about how regulators, existing battery companies, and auto OEMs might, in the short-term, stymie the deployment of Axion's battery in the auto industry. I went on to say that I was concerned that Axion was just too far ahead of the mainstream and this could take much longer than I thought (bleeding edge vs. leading edge).

     

    She asked, given this and given how few companies ever achieve truly outsize returns (say 20x) how do I think Axion can do that?

     

    My answer centered around SHBs point that the PbC enables dramatically different products to be created and the incredible size of the markets Axion is addressing. My third point was how Axion has preserved its independence so far and taken steps to maintain its independence well into the future (avoiding debt, loss of control to bigger players, its lead-acid plant to produce legacy product to minimize cash-burn, and long-term focus of the controlling shareholders).

     

    If Axion is still an independent company in 2020 and automakers are building cars around Axion batteries, the company will quite possibly have generated 100x returns for 2012 shareholders.

     

    This also brings me to a point about John's note. To me, a brokered deal with a major selling shareholder is only useful if it enables Axion's next fund-raising event to take place at a higher valuation. Propping up the share price in the interim (say this summer if there is no news and the overall market declines) would only serve to take away bottom-feeding opportunities for us and do a favor for the seller. Much better I would say is the idea of us participating in the next fund raising event. In that case, as JP has pointed out many times, our money goes directly to Axion.

     

    I know it would add to the complexity of the deal, but I think it would be worth it to Axion, and its financing partners, to investigate how it could be done. It would certainly create some great PR for the firm.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Apmarshall:
    Another more! Good comment.
    Thanks.
    Carlos.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1830) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya:

     

    Thanks for your response. FWIW, I think "flat on the year" is the bottom for the year. Too many bears right now to take it lower. But the market will tell me if I'm correct or wrong very soon. I agree on NO QE3 and also that NO fiscal cliff.

     

    What is most noteworthy, IMHO, is the crack in WTI. But most importantly is the skid in Brent... which most people don't know our "pump prices" are based of Brent NOT WTI. Brent cracked 100/barrel last night.

     

    I suspect pump prices will be nice and low (relatively speaking) when we go to the polls in November. I do NOT believe that is a coincidence and, thus, gives further credence to NO MORE QE.
    I also suspect falling crude prices puts a floor on the "gloom and doom" crowd as the summer drags on.

     

    Just a few thoughts.
    1 Jun 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Unless Syria (and the Mideast) blows up ... then Brent heads right back up in a hurry.
    2 Jun 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    And they been getting ready to rumble for a while now...
    2 Jun 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Another player sees value in hybrid locomotives.

     

    "RZD May Receive First Hybrid Locomotive SinaraHybrid at the End of 2012"

     

    http://bit.ly/JZ1cdP

     

    Price point/unit.

     

    http://bit.ly/JT1urf

     

    Battery tech. Maybe this is why the Russians were interested in PBC.

     

    http://bit.ly/JZ1e5o
    1 Jun 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    I like the NS concept better for both yards and the road because you don't need IC power in a switcher that's always within a mile or two of a charging station; and treating a multi-locomotive consist as the functional OTR unit provides tremendous operational flexibility when it comes matching the hardware to the route and load.

     

    Trying to pack all the things needed for a hybrid into a single chassis seems like a great way to create unnecessary compromises.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • WDD
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    "It is equipped with lithium-ion batteries (accumulators) and super condensers...."

     

    Wow. Of all transportation technologies, ships and locomotives are the two least-sensitive to weight of the batteries, and in fact can benefit from the weight when strategically placed in the vessel/vehicle. I didn't note in the story exactly where the loco will operate, but the Trans-Siberia RR would probably be out--I imagine that lithium-ion's problems in cold temperatures will be germane there.

     

    They really would rather have the PbC. Does anyone in New Castle speak Russian?
    1 Jun 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    John, I kind of wonder if the interest in packaging the diesel generator with the storage isn't the new locomotive manufacturers way of holding onto content. If you think about it, the unit with the storage task is pretty simple for other players to support vs the content of the more elite group of traditional locomotive suppliers.

     

    A question if you don't mind. I seem to recall you, or maybe it was someone else here, mentioning the price of a GE version of their hybrid. I was just wondering how this compared to the Russian offering?
    1 Jun 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30625) | Send Message
     
    The number that sticks in my head is about $5 million, but heaven knows where it came from.
    1 Jun 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Can Better Batteries Shrink California’s Carbon Footprint?

     

    http://bit.ly/Mgdbst

     

    --“Storage devices are going to be essential to reaching the goals of Executive Order S-3-05,” says Williams. “They’re essential to a low-carbon future.”

     

    --The Bay Area is already home to more than 30 startup battery companies, many of which are struggling with ongoing R&D hurdles, as well as the lack of a clear market.

     

    ####

     

    Things may be happening slowly with Axion, but we have most if not all of these 30 Bay Area startups by the cahones.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2418) | Send Message
     
    I can't help but think that the "carbon footprint" isn't likely to be germane to California for the next 10 years or so. Survival of a central government structure is the problem. Democracy is proving inadequate to wean voters from the public teat.

     

    " Vote YES on benefits and NO on taxes." How long can that last?
    1 Jun 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    SHB: But, there is that Executive Order from Gov. "I'll be back," with some pretty significant renewable goals.

     

    Frankly, once Europe is sort of, kind of figured out, I think the next huge hurdle for the US is California. What a freak'n mess, and has been for more than a score years.
    1 Jun 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    "What a freak'n mess, and has been for more than a score years."

     

    I was kid in school here during the first jellybrown administration. And that's when many of the most rotten seeds were sown... scoff if you will, like it or not, but Wisconsin, New Jersey, Indiana, Texas, Utah---they're showing the way out, and back.... to something sane. But for now? Our Gov is still building his high speed train to nowhere. Refuses to face facts. Nobody is serious here until that dies. And it will.
    1 Jun 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Maya: “They’re essential to a low-carbon future.”

     

    The irony of a *carbon* electrode being one of the potentially important components to a low-carbon future is just too rich.

     

    With the Sierra Club in the "absolute" camp of no fossil fuels at all, now targeting NG in spite of its *relative* benefits, so that they can force more reliance on wind and solar and ..., another irony arises.

     

    The existence of all the technologies they espouse as the savior of the planet rely on the very things they want to outlaw *and* copious amounts of other diminishing natural resources, such as water.

     

    Buffoons everywhere. They might find nirvana if and when they have successfully caused the start of the extinction of mankind.

     

    Prototypical EVangelicals, I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jun 2012, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    I believe the solution is to sell California to Greece...

     

    We can take payment in Drachmas. No matter how low the exchange rate, we come out ahead...
    2 Jun 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Oops, you missed a spot there TB...here, let me fix it:

     

    "I believe the solution is to sell CaliforniaNs to Greece"

     

    Total win-win. And if they have a problem coming up with the note, we should be able to figure something out---I mean there's always some kind of rebate, refundable tax-credit, HUD program or something. So it's all good. All good all the time. Hey, it's Cali baby! Now, how 'bout a Zima? hmm? hmm?
    2 Jun 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (858) | Send Message
     
    Axion - we put carbon in our batteries, not in your air.
    2 Jun 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10728) | Send Message
     
    Energy Department Announces Launch of Energy Innovation Hub for Critical Materials Research

     

    --May 31, 2012 - 5:56pm

     

    WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu today announced plans to invest up to $120 million over five years to launch a new Energy Innovation Hub, establishing a multidisciplinary and sustained effort to identify problems and develop solutions across the lifecycle of critical materials.

     

    [Much of this is about REEs, so Trip, you may want to repost over in your REE blog.]

     

    http://1.usa.gov/K3f2Kh

     

    Here's my fav two lines from the very bottom of this article:

     

    •The Greater Philadelphia Innovation Cluster for Energy-Efficient Buildings, which is working to achieve major breakthroughs in energy efficient building design.
    •A Batteries and Energy Storage Innovation Hub was also announced earlier this year. The deadline for submitting competitive proposals was this week.

     

    ####

     

    Hmmmm! Anyone think Viridity Energy is involved?

     

    Hmmmm, Part 2: Anyone think that Axion has submitted competitive proposals?
    1 Jun 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 16, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 62000, AvTrSz: 3875
    Min. Pr: 0.3320, Max Pr: 0.3409, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3375
    # Buys, Shares: 11 37900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3401
    # Sells, Shares: 5 24100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3333
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.57:1, DlyShts 8000 (12.9%)

     

    Daily short sales % since 5/18: 19 34 30 37 34 29 30 40 19 13

     

    I mention this because *recent* transition from low to high accompanied big price movement down. The previous transition from low to high (3/13-3/16) started a run up that was accompanied by daily shorts transition from high to low again. Before that, starting in early February, we had a transition from high to low daily short sales accompanied by price movement down.

     

    This time our peak in daily short percentage is much lower than the others I checked and my data is still limited in duration so I can't suggest with confidence that a move (up would be my guess since we are already apparently at the low based on $0.33x being so stable so far) is coming.

     

    However, you may recall that I wanted to see daily short sales come back as it seems to be regularly accompanied by price movement in some direction. I suspect the 10, 25 and 50-day averages may give a clue, but I haven't examined that as my data set is still too small I think.

     

    The buy:sell ratio swung back to the buy side today. With the price range and volume being so small I can't say this indicates much ATM.

     

    We had less than a penny spread. Other wise I'd say we had a bullish "hammer" candlestick - closed higher than the open at the (apparent) bottom of a down trend. But we need a longer tail to call a hammer.

     

    Anyway, an apparent bottom in place with reducing volume over the last couple weeks (and specifically over the last three days in a down trend) suggests that we ought to try and attack that nasty ol' $0.37 area again shortly.

     

    I would guess no later than a day or two would start a move up again.

     

    As usual, very experimental here,
    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New concentrator ready.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Jun 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Some added thoughts based on the new Chinese LAB mfg regs.

     

    Appears they are becoming affluent enough to use them themselves and are getting enough money and knowledge not to have/want to pee in their own Cheerios. Always good for us peasants when we make progress.

     

    "China issued a new regulation that will cut the output capacity of lead-acid battery makers by as much as 30 percent as the country continues its crackdown on lead poisoning, an industry group said.

     

    The rule could reduce exports of batteries and further cut the number of manufacturers from about 300 now, Cao Guoqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Battery Industry Association, said on Thursday."
    2 Jun 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18500) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Appears they are becoming affluent enough ..."

     

    As opposed to what they were before "The Great Cleanup Plan" began, when they were "effluent enough"!

     

    BTW, there's a new concentrator, in case you missed it. SA's "New Comment" flagging failures can cause us to miss this.

     

    http://bit.ly/K5rEAH

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jun 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    A couple gratuitous Axion mentions:

     

    http://bit.ly/M4Qe5d

     

    ftp://ftp.dvrpc.org/dv...

     

    http://bit.ly/Mr9sZp
    4 Jun 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Stefan > http://bit.ly/M4Qe5d
    tp://ftp.dvrpc.org/dv...
    http://bit.ly/Mr9sZp"

     

    From Viridity Energy's presentation on Ft. Meade microgrid project:

     

    "500 kW/ 285 kWh carbon lead acid battery"
    4 Jun 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (996) | Send Message
     
    Stefan...every little bit of exposure helps...in good company with Viridity presentation.
    4 Jun 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, was thinking the same thing! How did I miss that before? PbC or UB?
    4 Jun 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    We've been discussing this over on APC 109. I can't see Viridity using UB, PbC is the only likely option in this context.
    4 Jun 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty, yes, am caught up now...
    4 Jun 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Some may be interested in this.

     

    "Assessment of Grid based Energy Storage Technologies"

     

    http://bit.ly/LrfRi8
    4 Jun 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments