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  • Axion Power Concentrator 110: June 4, 2012: U.S. DOE Awards Grant To Axion Power International For PbC® Batteries In Micro-Hybrid Vehicles 236 comments
    Jun 4, 2012 8:12 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    U.S. DOE Awards Grant to Axion Power International to Fund Commercialization Plan for PbC® Batteries In Micro-Hybrid Vehicles

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated through close Friday June 1st)

    (click to enlarge)

    Concentrator Comments: 20,000 comments surpassed on June 1st!

    (updated June 1st)

    (click to enlarge)

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (236)
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  • Wow, last I looked we had 107 following, now 123. Onward and upward!
    4 Jun 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • I watch that following number too...

     

    Imagine if all 123 are holding an average of just 100k AXPW shares.

     

    12.3million.

     

    Plus lurkers, whose number is much higher.
    5 Jun 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • My car battery died a few days ago; got an emergency jump-start and then took the car to the dealer for a new battery.
    An Exide AGM battery was installed. Price $310.
    Reprogramming charge $195. Total $505. plus tax and shop supplies.
    It appears that XIDE AGM battery may have a significantly higher margin than older versions.( needless to add, the dealer is profiting handsomely with reprogramming charge etc). XIDE reporting earnings this week while plumbing all-time lows. Does anyone think XIDE is a buy here?
    4 Jun 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Enginedoc: Seldom mentioned is using long-dated call options for this. Reduces amount of cash at risk in exchange for time-decay risk and the cost of the options.

     

    Last year (or the year before? I don't recall), (XIDE) became a certified Federated Auto Parts supplier. This offers the potential for increased revenues. Once Exide gets past their current troubles, no reason they shouldn't progress.

     

    But the time-frame still looks long. Might be better to wait until an uptrend is established in share price. Give up a little upside for a less risk scenario.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • "Reprogramming charge $195."

     

    That's called a scam. They could put some soft key function in that resets the battery to "New" and all the installer would have to do is make sure the battery was fully charged when installing it. As an example, when you change the motor oil on many GM vehicles you just put the key to the aux position and hit the gas pedal to the floor 3 times and it resets the oil monitoring program to "just changed". This is a pure and simple make money move on the part of the industry.

     

    And even if you don't do something that makes sense. 195 USD for reprogramming! Come on. What did he do? Add 5 HP?
    5 Jun 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Enginedoc, what car needed the the expensive AGM plus reprogramming?
    5 Jun 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Correct, iindelco.

     

    These "shop fees" are ridiculous. Or how about the "filing fee" for a car purchase? The explanation is that you are paying for THEIR bookkeeping and paper trail!

     

    I had a fun moment with a Mercedes dealer over this one time. I told them that it would be OK with me if they did not keep any files or paperwork on this particular transaction. The dealer bookkepper's eyes bugged out and she stammered: "Bbbbut that would be illegal!"

     

    We negotiated the matter, wherin I paid for their paperwork load and they gave me some extra equipment for "free".

     

    As for these "reprograming" chores, some of them are more onerous (and require extra equipment) than others, but yes, its usually possible to either do them yourself or get them done elsewhere for little or nothing.

     

    They call them "stealerships", y'know.
    5 Jun 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack, But it's not the stealerships. It's the OEM's. They are designing these situations to allow the dealers to make money without getting it from the factory aka new car sale.

     

    What's really happening is that the car dealers are making little money on new vehicles. The OEM's are trying to create "make work" scams to allow them to make their money "over time" off the buyers. Less painful that way.

     

    Another example is wiper blades. They are designing and patenting special interface arrangements so you can't buy the cheap ones from the Chinese or suppliers like Anco/Trico. Are they better? Maybe in some small way but not 3-4 USD vs 15-20 USD.

     

    It's the free printer, expensive paper and ink business model.
    5 Jun 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • In its conference calls JCI has been saying that AGM batteries are twice the price of a flooded battery and generate three times the margin. Exide's economics should be comparable.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Hah! Boy...do I get "stealerships."

     

    For the first time ever, during my latest PA State Inspection, my windshield wipers did not pass, and in order to get the inspection completed, I had to buy new blades then and there, rather than going to NAPA.

     

    Another curious part of the inspection was that my gas cap didn't pass either. That was $19.00 to replace. I swear my gas cap was working just fine. What are ya gonna do?

     

    I love my Explorer, but I feel continually under attack from phone calls to my home, emails to my email account, the dealership making contact after every appointment, trying to sell me extended warranty, updating my navigation disk, my letter box recieving difficult to open, "MUST READ THIS COMMUNICATION," with "Under Penalty of Law," added, etc.

     

    It's really too much "friendly service."
    5 Jun 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Absolutely (though I had not heard about the wiper blades, that's just insane). The OEM's are complicit. Having manufactured cars which are TOO GOOD and which need less maintenance, they are walking the problem back with this sneaky stuff.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • engindoc > "My car battery died ... Reprogramming charge $195.

     

    Care to share car make and model year?
    5 Jun 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • A recent article for N.C. detailed the percentage of inspection failures by company and the reasons. It was obvious from the number of windshield wiper failures and company names which were scams.

     

    Hopefully it awakens our state regulators to enforcement action against these outfits.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Man, I would have had some fun with those guys asking them to qualify how I failed. They'd get me out of the place so fast they might forget to charge me for the inspection. :))

     

    http://1.usa.gov/L0PyjG
    5 Jun 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Rick,
    The car is a BMW 525 xi.
    They actually charged me a total of $748.
    I was furious and told them so.
    The service adviser then dropped the charge by a couple of hundred bucks.
    5 Jun 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • engindoc,

     

    Could you please indicate if your vehicle has SS? Also what climate do you live in and approx. how long did the battery last?

     

    Based on this experience would you be a fan of cutting the life of your starter/SS battery significantly if you don't already have SS?
    5 Jun 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like you drive a BMW or comparable vehicle. I had replaced my AGM battery a while ago and was surprised by the expense.
    5 Jun 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • That is why I do not service my vehicles at dealerships.
    5 Jun 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • $505 for a battery replacement? You got to be kidding me although I know you are being serious. What did they reprogram? Doesn't the powertrain control module (PCM) have CMOS memory so you can unhook the battery terminals for maintenance if necessary? That's unreal!
    5 Jun 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, I was going to answer this but I found it on line.

     

    Remember that with the voltage being flat during discharge in a LAB the BMS has to manage energy in and out of the LAB via monitoring current or calculations so that the battery remains charged but not over/under charged. Over charging dries out the matting carrying the electrolyte.

     

    That's one of the advantages of having more slope in the PBC battery during discharge. You can just measure the voltage and you know how much charge it has or needs.

     

    Anyway, Here's the answer.

     

    http://bit.ly/JUkRyI
    5 Jun 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • So in other words he was ripped off Inndelco! I was thinking about my old 1993 Taurus Sho (loved that car but 14MPG but a thrill car to drive) and when you screwed with the PCM (hotrodders created custom programmed PCM's with different performance curves) you only needed to idle the car for some short time (2 to 5 minutes IIRC) for it reprogram itself. Unreal.

     

    I went into a Hyundai dealer for an oil change because I didn't have a Hyundai oil filter and they hit me for $100 plus! I got it knocked down - they actually charged me $50 for 1 hour of mechanic time! I bought my own filters and go anywhere it is cheap now.
    5 Jun 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • >bangwhiz ... $50 bucks an hour is a bargain from a dealer. Here, I sure this most places, the standard (as in lowest I've found) for dealer shop time is $175/hr. The local tire shops & whatnot vary from $45 to $125.
    5 Jun 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Like I mentioned earlier they could just make sure the battery is fully charged and hit a button when it's installed. It's a pure and simple BMW rip off.

     

    Yeah, the whole industry is playing games. Still do 5 family cars myself on the oil. I must admit I'm getting sick of it but at least I know it's done right and for a reasonable price. Use to listen to the GM techs talk about when they were youngsters and when they didn't feel like working they would crawl under the car and just wipe off the oil filter.

     

    And yes, That's the other game. Special oil filters to lock the other providers out for a tears or two until they can make knock offs. My recent acquisition for my youngest eliminated the can the filter was in for a reusable housing. The filter price doubled because they designed a special format.

     

    I never go to a dealer for anything I can get done elsewhere. Over about 25 years I think I've been to the dealer 3 times for work that was not covered by warranty. Of that 3 times they messed up once. Didn't put the washer fluid bottle neck back in the bracket to support it and the alternator pulley rubbed on the side of the bottle. Didn't hear it until it wore through the bottle and the fluid leaked out. When I opened the hood I found some of the mechanics tools on top of the engine. Needless to say he didn't get them back when they fixed their stupidity.
    5 Jun 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • :-) For decades I too avoided dealership maintenance/repair services until purchasing our 2011 Camry which came with two years of scheduled maintenance services. Utilization of the full two years service is unlikely due to recognition of the prevalence of "rip off" practices at dealerships.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco:
    My car is a 2007 model and does not have SS.
    I live in northern Ohio; pretty frigid winter temperatures.
    The original battery lasted 6 years.
    Having no experience using SS, I cannot offer any useful opinion about its desirability for an individual car owner, although I understand the pressure that governments feel to decrease average fuel consumption.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Toyota does a heck of a job building some great vehicles. Unfortunately for us'un consumers, the games that play out in business cycles spread as a necessity to a large extent.

     

    Recognize, deflect, accept and move on.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • engindoc,

     

    Thanks so much for the info. Based on my understanding of lead acid tech. that's about right for the life cycle in your climate. The northern OhiO region should help immeasurably in life cycle based on the fact that high temperatures are, on average, what kills LAB's.

     

    I have no doubt about the pressures that all government organizations feel about doing positive things while being inadequate, on average, to do so.

     

    Appreciate your feedback.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Engindoc.
    Approx 2200 Axion shares, I would buy a bicycle like JP, or walk.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • Many moons ago the Petroleum Club in Houston used to offer an oilman's lunch that was priced at a barrel of crude. The Economist also publishes a Big Mac Index to reflect cost of living differences around the world. I think we may be witnessing the emergence of a third specialty index for Axionistas.
    6 Jun 2012, 04:03 AM Reply Like
  • Stealerships will be stealerships. I never WANTED to become a mechanic, but the real world drove me there...

     

    My last experience with a stealership involved a $720 brake job on a car with 4000 miles on the prior brakes installed 3 months earlier. Aware of the dangers in dropping off the car for a recall service, I took the precaution of writing a note on the work order which stated: "You MUST get authorization for any further work".

     

    Clever boys, they got my wife on the phone and convinced her it needed another $1000 in work, including new brakes. "Its making a funny noise" was the expert diagnosis and reason for the brake job. Imagine my surprise when I came back from my business trip and saw the bill.

     

    Stealerships. Avoid them.
    6 Jun 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack, All I can say is ouch. I feel for ya.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • This might explain why the price keeps dropping... http://bit.ly/L7EqQr
    4 Jun 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Yesterday Stephan Moroney found a link to a Viridity presentation that says a 500 kw / 285 kWh carbon lead battery will be used to support the Fort Meade micro-grid. – http://bit.ly/M4Qe5d

     

    In one of the last comments in Concentrator 109 he found another piece of the puzzle, the schedule for the May 23, 2012 conference where Viridity made the presentation – http://bit.ly/Lh5SiJ

     

    Based on the pricing of the recent NS sale, I'd expect the 500 kw / 285 kWh battery array to be in the $200,000 range. While the sale is not huge, Fort Meade is one of the highest profile bases in the country and a true Trophy Project. Snagging that project would have far more value than the sale itself.

     

    I believe that data burrowing Axionistas have once again found very important information that is *publicly available* but not widely known or officially released. We don't know for sure that the Fort Meade micro-grid project will go to Axion, but I haven't found anything to indicate that Viridity is working with East Penn, the only other manufacturer of a lead-carbon product.

     

    Under the circumstances, I think that Axionistas who've been holding back waiting for me to make progress on the syndicate idea might be better off doing some immediate bottom fishing in the open market because an announcement of a high-profile halo project like the Fort Meade micro-grid could push the stock price up with greater force than our collective buying power could push it down.

     

    I'll keep on working on the syndicate idea, but I don't want anybody to miss an opportunity to buy shares cheaply because they're waiting on me to come up with an even better deal.
    5 Jun 2012, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    While I hope you are correct, do we know if Viridity is working with JCI or Exide on projects that use LA batteries with carbon additives? Looking at the Viridity presentation, they say "carbon lead acid battery" they don't say "PbC" or "carbon electrode lead acid battery". Just worried that the industry has a habit of using the term "carbon LA battery" to mean a LA battery with carbon additives. Hope I'm wrong, but time will tell which is correct.
    5 Jun 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • As an aside, I'm pondering the footers in the majority of the slides:

     

    "© 2011 Viridity Energy, Inc.; All Rights Reserved; Proprietary and Confidential Information; Do Not Copy; Do Not Disclose"

     

    and

     

    "5/23/2012 Highly Confidential"

     

    Really interesting information in the presentation, so how is it that someone like me gets to consume this PowerPoint show? Are the footers just boilerplate, or has someone had an "Oops" moment in posting the presentation? Good sleuthing Stephan!
    5 Jun 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Whoops! lol
    5 Jun 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech, I've looked quite a bit and I've not seen any indication that JCI is now offering batteries with carbon additives. The only thing I've seen out of them is the presentation I posted here from last year that has a statement that carbon additives have problems.

     

    Here is Exide's new AGM battery offering with graphite additives to the negative electrode. Great stuff........when you compare it to flooded (in most instances).

     

    http://bit.ly/KK6ZGz
    5 Jun 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • For what it is worth, slide 3 lists Viridity's partners (and sample customers and participating utilities) -- Axion is listed, but not JCI or Exide.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • JP, am I right in thinking it likely that the project proposal would be for an Axion PowerCube that is simply not named as such? I note that 500 kw is the size of the on-site PowerCube Axion has, and that Viridity says that they will be using a Demand Response Inverter, a key component of the PowerCube. If so, this would seem to significantly boost revenue over $200k.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • As likely it's a Princeton Power System, not a PowerCube.

     

    http://bit.ly/KK4Afn
    http://bit.ly/ryWTGv

     

    Princeton is happy to use the PbC in their "PowerCube," but they're not tying themselves to any battery chemistry right now. Can't say I blame them.

     

    In any case, Princeton is most likely ultimately earning the majority of the revenue since the inverter is the most costly part by far.

     

    Note that Sandia Labs was involved in the development of Princeton's Demand Response Inverter (wonder if there are trademark wars going on as we speak on that)

     

    http://bit.ly/KBuNxY

     

    Which "defense contractors" we might be competing with have close contacts with Sandia?

     

    This goes back the question I posed yesterday ... should AXPW be in this market against inverter specialists like Princeton and ZBB and "Big Boy" system intergrators like Lockheed and ABB?
    Another big European player coming here in spades:
    http://bit.ly/LmjMuv

     

    What are the marketing and personnel expertise costs of doing so? A company like ZBB is spending a lot of time, effort, and money on the Military Microgrid market as well. Plus they acquired the Tier assets with their expertise, contacts, and contracts as well.

     

    Does Axion have any chance against companies with either long histories, bigger pockets, greater expertise, or closer to the "middle" of the entire system?

     

    (think Middleware in Computer terms)
    http://bit.ly/KBuPWA

     

    Perhaps there are niches at the small end (as part of Rosewater's efforts are focused) that make more sense to a company of Axion's size.

     

    Focus on the knitting? If we had significant "guaranteed" auto and locomotive contracts would we care?
    5 Jun 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • How's wide's the moat ... and where?
    http://bit.ly/M4bQzr
    5 Jun 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • WTB: The answer is Axion partnering up with a major, like Exide or JCI.

     

    That's my greatest wish for all of us Axionistas.

     

    We have to remember that East Penn, Exide and JCI all independently paid Axion to test their AGM batteries against the PbC. All did not perform as well.

     

    We are nearly a year beyond when I listened to TG humorously recount this story. I don't believe any of them have yet come up with a better advanced lead acid battery than the PbC.
    5 Jun 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • WDD,
    True, and what I take most comfort in. Still I worry about situations like we had with the solar company that has two solar trees at the Axion plant. It looked like they would be using Axion's batteries in the future, but at the end of the day it was more important to them that they sold the solar trees, not whose batteries they were connected to.
    5 Jun 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • I'm in a renewables class today. Will see if I can pick up anything useful
    5 Jun 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Sort of related to the future of AONE, and the possibility of China buying them out...

     

    Bankrupt ENER1 has now been privatized under a former related "parent company" name of EnerDel, with all new brass, with intentions of using the (our tax dollars funded) Indianapolis plant to make lithium ion batteries for:

     

    --Future Growth Strategies

     

    In addition to EnerDel’s current customers, it has re-focused its efforts to develop advanced lithium-ion battery storage solutions for medium- and heavy-duty transportation (buses, trucks, rail and other mass transit applications), grid energy storage (bulk energy storage, residential and community energy storage, and UPS back-up for mission critical applications), and industrial, task-specific applications.

     

    and

     

    -- “While electric passenger vehicle sales have been slower to develop for several reasons, we are encouraged by the interest in grid energy storage and medium and heavy-duty transportation applications. Our sales efforts are focused on these areas, because they represent markets experiencing stronger growth and where we have proven experience,” continued Roberts. “After an extensive strategic planning effort, we believe we have a solid blueprint to provide customers with a line-up of production-ready energy storage solutions to meet their needs.”

     

    http://bit.ly/JSOctt
    5 Jun 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • I wonder if the "new" incarnation of AONE will promptly get in line at the public trough at the DOE...

     

    How many times will the taxpayer get bilked by the same ponzi scheme?
    5 Jun 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Oh come on now tripleblack -- it's only a Ponzi scheme if you use new "investments" to pay back previous investors. That's hardly the case if you just go bankrupt and nobody gets paid back!
    5 Jun 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • LOL, I did not say it was a well-managed ponzi scheme...
    5 Jun 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Panasonic to Begin Mass-production of Long-life Lithium-ion Battery System for Solar-powered Homes in Europe:

     

    http://bit.ly/JSPKnc
    5 Jun 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • This one has legs, for political reasons if nothing else. From the perspective of government support in Europe, France has flipped to Green, and will be supporting this initiative, while Spain has gone the other direction (but is already so far gone down the solar/wind rabbit hole that the market has some momentum even without further government welfare payments, particularly for the sale of batteries).

     

    Germany's center-right government is scrambling to shore up its Green cred, and even though this is probably a losing effort (I project them losing big in the Bundestag elections next year), Panasonic can look for short term support from existing altenergy programs in Germany, and even more come the new ruling government coalition which is likely to include Green Party participation.

     

    Nicely timed, Panasonic.

     

    Now, we all know that Germany is already teetering on the brink of severe grid problems as it fails to digest way too much wind and solar daytime production...

     

    But the political winds are in the Green's favor, and the PC support for LI batteries will open up huge (if temporary) markets over the next few years.

     

    My personal vision of a future time when we will see piles of decrepit wind turbines and solar farms getting bulldozed into landfills... And of future artists planting them like upended cadillacs in rusty stonehenge sculptures... Becomes more compelling every day.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Further, Trip, we've all discussed little thoughts and blips that Germany is a big potential buyer of the PbC for their potentially insufficient and ineffectual grid.

     

    I agree. Panasonic nailed the timing.

     

    But, I still believe the PbC can sneak in there, sometime down the line, and obtain a % of Germany's restructuring of their grid.

     

    ####

     

    Love the imagery you created of defunct wind turbines!
    5 Jun 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • PC support for Li batteries in Germany or any other location with a similar climate is not something I can easily fathom unless Li performs better in cold temps than I understand them to.

     

    How long might "PC support" for Li survive in the wake of a fire/explosion or two?
    5 Jun 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/LlTcFT
    5 Jun 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, This came out the same day re: Panasonic and their moves in Europe. Timely indeed!

     

    http://bit.ly/M4bTLr
    5 Jun 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • German support for green and clean will dissipate rapidly with the first major incident that has people freezing in the dark. Then that nasty nuclear will look a lot more attractive than it does today. It should be a good business for somebody. Get paid to mothball all those reactors and then get paid again to bring them back on line.
    5 Jun 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe the French can annex little chunks of Germany into France so the German politicians can say "We got rid of them" and the French can keep the grid stable. Should be a few politicians in CA that could convince all involved that it makes sense!
    5 Jun 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco -

     

    As an aside, there is a part in the middle ground between Germany and France called Alsace which is good wine country and has changed hands between the Germans and French multiple times ...

     

    http://bit.ly/M4lTo7
    5 Jun 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, Thanks.

     

    I think I remember that from my Modern European History class. So we're all set if we can just manage to do it through the art of negotiation vs the chess game utilizing peasants.

     

    It would be far harder to negotiate if we were talking something valuable like prime wine country. Then the gloves have to come off!
    5 Jun 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Disney could. Watt Disney Land to take over Euro Zone, issue Mickey Bonds.
    5 Jun 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • You've been hanging out in the concentrators too long!

     

    "Watt Disney Land"

     

    LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Slideshow: DOE Energy Storage Project Portfolio Funded by ARRA

     

    http://bit.ly/L0utpw

     

    Mentioned in this goverment subsidized ARRA energy storage projects are AONE, East Penn, the Laural Mountain Wind Farm I was curious about, about a month ago, Southern California Edison, Duke Energy and several more.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting slides, particularly those addressing,
    "Duke Energy is working with Xtreme Power's advanced lead-acid batteries on a 36-megawatt, 40-minute battery project for ramp control and smoothing on a 153-megawatt wind farm at Notrees, Texas."

     

    http://bit.ly/L0AS3X includes text one might expect to find on Axion Power International's website.

     

    "Key Characteristics of PowerCells:

     

    Energy like a battery; Power like a capacitor
    Low internal resistance provides high instant power capability, high efficiency, and operation at ambient temperature
    Performs thousands to millions of cycles over a broad range of changes in SOC
    Non-Hazmat rated and no special permitting required
    98% of materials recovered and recycled"
    5 Jun 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Wonder how much tellurium Xtreme Power uses in their battery -

     

    http://bit.ly/L0AS3X

     

    "Proprietary formulas of fundamental alloys, such as copper, lead and tellurium, are used to form bi-polar plates that provide a massive surface area at the nano-scale for the chemical reaction to take place, resulting in an extremely low internal resistance."

     

    http://bit.ly/L0CMl5

     

    "The extreme rarity of tellurium in the Earth's crust is not a reflection of its cosmic abundance, which is in fact greater than that of rubidium, even though rubidium is ten thousand times more abundant in the Earth's crust. The extraordinarily low abundance of tellurium on Earth is rather thought to be due to conditions in the Earth's formation, when the stable form of certain elements, in the absence of oxygen and water, was controlled by the reductive power of free hydrogen. Under this scenario, certain elements such as tellurium which form volatile hydrides were severely depleted during the formation of the Earth's crust, through evaporation of these hydrides."
    5 Jun 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Well Stefan, Things are going in their direction anyway. Still not cheap.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lm1k9n
    5 Jun 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • "...cosmic abundance..."!!!

     

    I can't wait for that phrase to start popping up in the anti-REE luddites' articles.

     

    "Rare Earths are not really rare... In fact, on a cosmic scale they are very abundant".

     

    Groan. I get a grok-ache from this.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Think about it tripleblack, The Church of Cosmic Abundance. We could make a fortune in California.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Great idea, John. And your timing couldn't be better.

     

    Robert Shuller's famous CA monstrosity, The Crystal Cathedral, just filed for bankruptcy. It's quite the messy situation:

     

    http://lat.ms/KKUxWZ
    5 Jun 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe we could get a DOE loan to put that idle facility back into production.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Holy solar? The solar part will clinch it!

     

    Our spokesperson.

     

    http://bit.ly/Kaj9L0
    5 Jun 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • wow, that is quite a decline! Thanks for the link.
    5 Jun 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • The state of California (itself bankrupt, of course) will probably chip in a few million dollars just because it has the term "crystal" in the title. Everybody knows how much cosmic vibratory energy can be captured by a crystal that big...
    5 Jun 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • From the slideshow Maya linked, slide 6 on the New Mexico project:

     

    "Smaller ARRA projects include the 500-kilowatt lead-carbon battery technology project for Public Service in New Mexico and the 3-megawatt project for PJM. Gyuk said that the EastPenn lead carbon batteries used in these projects **look like lead acid batteries, but one electrode contains carbon.** Gyuk called them a cross between ultracapacitors and lead acid batteries with ten times the cycle life of other batteries."

     

    Surely this is the PbC, not the Ultrabattery?

     

    In the slide, it shows a graph of Ultrabattery against VRLA. But just below the graph, it says "PbC testing at Sandia." Which is correct?
    5 Jun 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • It's the ultrabattery in both cases. They are cross naming them all the time.
    5 Jun 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • SM > "Smaller ARRA projects include the 500-kilowatt lead-carbon battery technology project for Public Service in New Mexico and the 3-megawatt project for PJM. Gyuk said that the EastPenn lead carbon batteries used in these projects **look like lead acid batteries, but one electrode contains carbon.**

     

    http://tinyurl.com/78z... states that the New Mexico project used Ultrabattery.
    <
    LYON STATION, Pa., Oct. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia/ -- East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., and its subsidiary Ecoult, announces the launch of Public Service Co. of New Mexico's (PNM) Prosperity Energy Storage Project in Albuquerque, NM. This project integrates an Advanced VRLA (Valve-Regulated Lead-Acid) and UltraBattery energy storage solution with a separately installed 500 kW solar plant. Its purpose is to provide simultaneous voltage smoothing for consistent energy levels and peak shifting to deliver energy when it's needed the most.
    <
    http://tinyurl.com/7ew... reports that the 3MW battery bank also uses Ultrabattery and is located on East Penn's manufacturing site.
    <
    The Ecoult 3 MW UBer™ will be implemented both in a building and in a containerized format to demonstrate flexibility in approach for prospective adopters. It uses four strings of UltraBattery® cells and connects to the grid from inside the East Penn Manufacturing site in Lyon Station, Pennsylvania.
    <
    5 Jun 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting article on Xtreme Power filing suit against their inverter company DynaPower ...

     

    http://bit.ly/LnFuCo
    5 Jun 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Stefan,

     

    A good reason to keep your inverters separate from your storage. It can be a little more expensive but putting up fire walls at key points can be a real asset in managing risk.
    5 Jun 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Xtreme Power Gets $10M Charge-Up for Grid Batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/M4cSvi
    5 Jun 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • I enjoyed this link within a link (may have been posted here already earlier this year):

     

    "The Networked Grid 100: The Movers and Shakers of the Smart Grid in 2012"

     

    http://bit.ly/MyG9nz

     

    Would love to hear what some of these guys REALLY think about the smartgrid competitive landscape. Now THAT would be excellent due dilly. Wonder what feedback Vani's getting?
    5 Jun 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Princeton busy on the Lithium side to ... and in NYC :-(

     

    Who's going be buying these guys? (they're still private.)

     

    The GreenStations(TM)include multiple PPS’ 100kW Grid-tied Inverters (GTIB’s) and Demand Response Inverters [DRI]. The PPS inverters will function as the interface between the electric grid and the lithium-ion battery system, allowing for smooth transition of power and support to the smart grid

     

    http://bit.ly/M4hKQU

     

    http://bit.ly/KKHMf4

     

    Green Charge looks like a Viridity Energy Competitor at first glance.

     

    I know the market potential is huge. It's gonna be fascinating to see how it all turns out over the next 5 years.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • WT -

     

    Interestingly, the PP DRI UL1741 certification is still pending.
    The DRI appears to be a solution that is similar to the ZBB inverters - however, the DRI apparently only offers the ability to tie in solar capabilities from renewable options ... whereas the patented ZBB inverters offer at least solar and wind and potentially others ...

     

    http://bit.ly/KKL3LE

     

    However, the PP 100kw GTIB has been UL certified for about 2 years - UL 1741 Certified (#72090351.01).
    http://bit.ly/z8p1Bi

     

    Also interesting to note is that the specs list lead carbon with lead acid and lithium ion as a battery choice.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): After the last few days, I thought you folks might enjoy this mid-day update.

     

    Buy:Sell 5.94:1, AvTrSz: 7305, VWAP 0.3482 (going the right direction)
    Min. Pr: 0.3401, Max Pr: 0.3500
    Vol 138800

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • I'm calling it the Busted Syndicate bounce. Have my doubts as to its longevity, sorry to say.

     

    Kudos to JP for trying to help mop up the continuing supply, though. One Axion green and blue galaxy swirl sticker for the PbC helmet.
    5 Jun 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • You wouldn't expect any of those guys to actually chase a price would you? Today is just bottom feeders doing what they do best, sopping up any tasty morsels that drift down to their level.
    5 Jun 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Not from the regulars. We did have some flying fish purchases at 35 cents, though.
    5 Jun 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • The clear potential of a short-term win for a trophy project like the Fort Meade micro-grid is fascinating. I can easily see how it might be enough shake one or two lurkers off the fence to at least get their toes damp.
    5 Jun 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • IMO, many regulars adding at these levels with (likely) a near-full allocation already would be odd. I think that, like me, they might be waiting for the uptrend to develop now.

     

    I think newer folks gaining the confidence to take some shares is a positive sign. Since we don't have the conditions for a "momo" trade showing here, I think these are "serious investors" that might represent some additional strong hands.

     

    As I mentioned a few times in the past, I felt some stability leading to a long grind up (not really evident yet, of course) would give confidence, especially if the downside risk seemed limited.

     

    I believe we've hit those conditions temporarily at least, in spite of the *apparent* fact that some folks were dumping some shares.

     

    I just can't see a negative if that's a correct assessment.

     

    Subject to change, of course, and I *do* expect a hiccup at $0.37. But if we attack it enough times, we'll move on through as stronger hands hold more and more shares.

     

    Timing unknown by me, of course.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Bargins a bargin! Gotta getum while you can!
    5 Jun 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, me thinks anyone buying shares at the present time in face of manifold economic and financial uncertainies, whether new or "regular" AXPW investors has used 'strong hands' to climb an imposing WOW.
    5 Jun 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • There are bottom feeders who swim with the catfish in the muddy waters...

     

    And then there are bottom feeders who swim with the sharks in the bloody waters...
    5 Jun 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Watch out tripleblack.

     

    Great White at ten o'clock! :)

     

    Risky but sometimes you just have to glide in, scrape your flippers on the sand and take a nibble!

     

    Like yesterday. MMMmmmMM....I think!
    5 Jun 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry if this is a repeat ... so many links, so little time!

     

    Vinod Khosla Slaps Energy Storage With Some Tough Love

     

    The VC investor recognizes the value of storage, questions the technologies being applied, and alienates most of the industry.

     

    ERIC WESOFF: JUNE 30, 2011

     

    http://bit.ly/GTbTMg
    5 Jun 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • wtb

     

    Repeat or not, worth repeating!
    Where have we heard this before!
    "While laptops and consumer electronics follow Moore's Law of performance doubling every 18 months, he saw the grid under "Westinghouse's Law" with big change occurring every 50 to 70 years. He cited transformers as an example of the need for "fundamental new power electronics devices."
    5 Jun 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Confirms 2012 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.

     

    http://yhoo.it/LnyVQc
    5 Jun 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • carlos > "Axion Confirms 2012 Annual Meeting of Stockholders."

     

    The question is, WHY? Was there doubt as to sticking with the previously announced meeting date, time, place?
    5 Jun 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv> Every time I see your sig I think about septic tanks that don't perc.
    5 Jun 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • > BW -- LOL! ;-) Looks like it would be fair to say at this point that there is something memorable about me.
    5 Jun 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • I like two things:
    -.Mr. Thomas Granville, Chief Executive Officer, will provide a general business update to the Stockholders.
    -.The Company will provide tours of the nearby Clover Lane plant facility.

     

    Note: Today I had the opportunity to buy 10k more. Everyday I am closer to my goal: 150K
    For those who are scheduled to go to the meeting I wish them well and return well pleased. I hope to go to the next year.
    Carlos.
    5 Jun 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • "Tours of the Clover Lane facility."

     

    Wait a minute, isn't that the facility where the flooded LA batteries are made?

     

    No tours of the Gen 2 plant?

     

    (For those who don't know there are two plants, as can be seen in this Vani Dantam PDF):

     

    http://bit.ly/L8UnWF
    5 Jun 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • I don't like that Maya. You need to ask why. If I were guessing I would say it was because so many questions were raised about line programming and carbon sheeting from your first report that TG had to field.

     

    Does allow you to learn about status of second flooded line. I still don't like it, however, because none of us are holding Axion stock for flooded battery production. The next capital raise is coming surely as the tide so I would focus questions about status and availability of funds, but shutting off investors to the only reason we hold a single share is irksome to me.

     

    Someone is going to post a comment asking what are they hiding, so I thought I would say it first. However, if I had to venture a guess it would be to avoid the type of intense questioning raised from the first Concentrator report.
    5 Jun 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • bang: I decided I'm not going to think too much into it. It could just be a clerical error. I can't imagine stockholders arriving maybe by double the numbers of who were there last year, and not being able to at least see, if only from a distance, why they are investing in Axion.

     

    If anything, I'm more curious toward positive reasons if/why we can't see the Gen 2 plant, then otherwise.

     

    Debating sending off an email to Investor Relations.
    5 Jun 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA> I would hope it is to busy or they are assembling something inside with all that room. It doesn't concern me because I am not going to be encouraged by anything other than positive 10Q's until things perk up.

     

    That doesn't mean the info we dig up isn't valuable, it is. I just am not buying anything in a poke for the moment. I would take a ton of battery cases like you saw last time as encouraging for flooded battery sales and revenue.

     

    We need to hire a spotter near the Axion facilitites like WT's source at Altoona. Let me add that I don't think they are "hiding" anything, but some explanation would be justified and useful even if it is BS.
    5 Jun 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • BW, not too long ago people were trying to puzzle through the battery output capacity blackbox and figure out what proportion of it was capable of AGM production vice FLA. That question was posed to TG and he declined to breakdown the battery assembly capacity by battery type. A tour of the battery assembly facility could shed light on the matter.

     

    We know Axion was spending money on rebuilding some types of battery production equipment last year. We also know some capital expenditures enlarged the battery assembly area. I know nothing about battery production lines. JP has suggested on several occasions some/all of those outlays were rehabilitation of a second FLAB production line. On the other hand, it seems possible those expenditures could have been directed toward enhancement of AGM production capacity. To my knowledge TG has not addressed the specific battery type(s) the expenditures were targeting.
    5 Jun 2012, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • "That question was posed to TG and he declined to breakdown the battery assembly capacity by battery type." I know. I was the person who asked him that question during the year end conference call
    6 Jun 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Here's a possibility for why the electrode facility might not be available for tour:

     

    Tom Granville (2011 year end CC): "But, it’s our plan to move forward with the carbon sheeting, with the rolled sheeting process and we have that. We’ve been working, and we have people that work only on that project. We have equipment. We’ve moved things around. We’ve cleared out some areas here that will just be devoted to that process and I’m already starting to talk too much about it. So, I’m going to stop there."
    (lol, this was also in reply to one of Bang's questions)

     

    If there's some top-secret carbon sheeting work being done, such that simply to say that they've cleared out an area to perform it is to say too much(!), then I doubt they want folks walking around in there.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty: Thanks so much for pulling TG's vague yet wildly intriguing...enticing answer up.

     

    Top secret stuff that even shareholders can't see....

     

    And the board can't talk about it, or, doesn't even know about it.

     

    I like how you think.

     

    What I like most right now is that Axion Power is hiring. From a globally connected marketing genius, to an accountant that can deal with a $50M revenue outfit, to a bunch of needed shop workers.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • Your guess would be wrong Bang. One of the big reasons Axion decided to separate electrode fabrication from battery manufacturing was to restrict the number of people who had access to its core intellectual property. The robotic electrode fabrication lines don't reveal much. When you get into carbon milling, mixing and sheeting there's a lot of cutting edge manufacturing technology that Axion had to develop from the ground up and doesn't exist anywhere else in the world. If you open sensitive facilities to stockholders, you're also opening them to potential competitors and knock-off artists at the same time.
    6 Jun 2012, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • My comment was " I would hope it is to busy or they are assembling something inside with all that room." Is that so much different than your comment?
    6 Jun 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • I read your comment as expressing concern that they were *hiding something* from the stockholders as opposed to *protecting something* for the stockholders.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • I think we are splitting hairs here as to how one reads the comments. That being said, the fact that the electrode fabrication lines were part of the tour last year, and they are not this year, combined with TG comments and John's above does suggest that their are renovations at the plant involving the carbon mixing/sheeting process that they'd rather not let the public see at this time.
    God knows if I were them, I wouldn't let any of us near the place with a camera or cell phone! :-)
    6 Jun 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • JP> My comment was "somebody is going to say they are hiding something so I might as say it" was essentially a preemptive attack on trolls and a joke. Must have fallen flat as a joke. Jeesh!
    6 Jun 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • I'm sorry I missed the bulge in your left cheek. Thought it was Red Man.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Does raise an interesting question for the annual meeting. Perhaps someone could ask if the carbon sheeting process is being worked on in the electrode facility. On a final note several good reasons have been put forth about why there may be no tours of the facility.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • i thought it was funny. gotta try and take comments in bunches and not isolate them. Bang, your joke probably fell flat because people are learning to trust your poker instincts and are trying to pay attention to 'em.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Funny you would mention my poker instincts. My reasoning for only buying the 10Q's at the moment is I only want to bet on the cards I have for the moment versus come cards. I made several come card bets on AXPW and we're sitting at .35. No mas.

     

    Doesn't change my strong belief in the technology and Axion's potential but it certainly effects timing. I strongly believed Axion would win the DOE award with GM because of my government marketing background and reading the RFP. I wish I had been ignorant on the subjects and never studied the RFP and evaluation crfiteria. The RFP was pure BS for anyone other than L-ion.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • That's absolutely fair. Six months ago I would have told you that $.35 was impossible because all the big willing sellers were out of stock. In fact I think I probably did say something like that. Just goes to show that you can't rely on anybody's behavior but your own.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW) EOD - but first a word from our sponsor, er my ego ...

     

    I posited a few days back (in my insta for sure - maybe in the concentrators too?) a "push/pull" scenario that might appear, IIRC, in daily short sales activities.

     

    Today might be a first possible confirmation. Yesterday, and other such days, when we had a very narrow range and low average price, the daily short sales percentages were low (prior posting of these were rounded more - the following are showing 1 decimal place).

     

    5/31 WVAP 0.3370, DS % 19.2
    6/1 WVAP 0.3375, DS % 12.9
    6/4 WVAP 0.3345, DS % 8.6

     

    Note today: 6/5 WVAP 0.3484 DS % 47.0

     

    My thoughts were that in contrast to prior periods when we had sellers dumping shares into the market willy-nilly (JP's "sellers all crowding to get through the door at once"), we had now transitioned from that "push" scenario to a pull scenario - a more traditional effect of sellers being enticed (or "pulled") into selling by a more attractive exit price.

     

    A *cursory scan of the WVAP vs. short percentages *seems* to confirm this. It explains why, I think, we seem to have a correlation of (what I *thought* was) needing increasing short sales to see price movement. However, the cause and effect seems both inverted from my thoughts and bifurcated.

     

    I'm thinking the higher VWAP draws sellers in. If their shares are not in the market-makers' portfolio already (or maybe in the brokerage that owns the market-maker?) when the sell order is placed the market-maker shorts, as mandated by SEC and FINRA rules.

     

    OTOH, when price is moving down, a "push" develops at some point as some folks want to exit before the price goes even lower (they're trying to "avoid the pain") and their incoming sell orders again appear as short sales in a high percentage of cases.

     

    Anyway, thinking along those lines, my "slow grind up" seems both most likely and most attractive. A slow grind may convince some potential sellers that the trend is sustainable for a longer period and they may decide to hold longer, awaiting that better price.

     

    A "pop" will certainly be seen as unsustainable, and they usually aren't, and I suspect some or most potential sellers convert to "push" mode.

     

    In our current mode, *if* I've got it right, as long as we have steady buying going on, the sellers should be restrained and we should see decent buy:sell ratios, with a "normal" amount of variability, and that should result in the ability of a trend up to sustain, with more-or-less normal re-traces as the next "wave" of "weaker hands" decides it's time to take profit.

     

    I like what I'm seeing right now even at these low prices. Our patience with the ups and downs here will serve us well.

     

    OK, the daily stuff ...

     

    Notice a larger average trade size, a slightly improved VWAP with improving volume (this *may* suggest that the move towards $0.37 is underway as we've gone from 62K to 153K to 157K as we "bottomed" and the tops of the volume bars the last 5 days has started forming the desirable "cup" or "bowl" formation). As with the last little up move to $0.38 5/29, we have some of the traditioanl TA oscillators starting to make their turn towards the upside - but it is early, as always when I first mention these things.

     

    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 28754, Vol 157000, AvTrSz: 6280
    Min. Pr: 0.3401, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3484
    # Buys, Shares: 23 137000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3494
    # Sells, Shares: 2 20000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3411
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 6.85:1, DlyShts 73858, 47%

     

    Experimental, learning, etc., MHO,
    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    Can't say it enough. You do a heck of a job on the TA side and we're all very fortunate that you share a common interest here and are willing to share your efforts.

     

    It's only part of the equation but a very important one.

     

    Hats off and an ALMOST imperial bow! ( I can guarantee some level of my genetics would put in that partial restriction!)
    6 Jun 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • couple of things going on there. a market bounce and axonista news buying. imo the stock stays broken until the sellers get out of the way. i'm fine with that. i need some time just to temper my enthusiasm.

     

    this board pays off. it is a living exhaustive expansion tree search.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • Yesterday I got a message from Greentech Media asking if they could pick up my most recent article. I gave them permission to pick up anything that published first on Altenergystocks. There's no way to tell whether this will be a one off or recurring, but it's a new audience that could be very important.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Any idea on their reach?
    6 Jun 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • I think they have a pretty broad reach across a number of industries. The most important part is they have a different reach and that means lots of new eyes.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • John, Can't imagine why your efforts would not find a wider audience as time goes on. It takes significant effort to take all the stone throwing while being frank about "The Emperor's New Clothes".

     

    It has to be exhausting at times. (understatements are us).
    6 Jun 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Sometimes I feel like Cassandra. I've been given the gift of foresight and then cursed because nobody wants to believe me. Four years ago I got into lengthy debates with people who made intelligent sounding arguments. One by one I've highlighted the logical flaws in those arguments to a point that people don't make them anymore. Where EVs used to be superior at fuel savings and emissions reductions, the best arguments I hear today are that discriminating consumers will pay up for luxury, performance and HOV access. The most economically compelling argument, of course, is the HOV thing.

     

    The hard part has been deconstructing a carefully crafted web of lies that all of the liars can disavow. You don't generally see battery manufacturers making claims about how they're going to cut battery prices to the bone or take performance to the moon, but the public knows they are. You don't often see EV manufacturers claiming that they're going to produce cars for Joe Lunchbucket, but the public knows they will.

     

    The logical disconnect is amazing. Everybody knows that Tesla's going to sell 20,000 cars next year. What I want to know is who's going to buy them. In the first five months of this year, total plug-in sales were 14,212 units nationwide and only 594 of those units (from BMW) were even close to the Tesla price range.

     

    It's all well and good that Tesla booked 1,400 Model S reservations in 2010, 4,600 reservations in 2011 and 1,800 reservations in Q1, but I want to know what percentage of the reservations will turn into sales, and once the backlog is gone where demand for 5,000 units per quarter will come from.

     

    I'd best stop now or nobody will have a reason to read my next screed.
    6 Jun 2012, 02:57 AM Reply Like
  • JP > "... but I want to know what percentage of the reservations will turn into sales, and once the backlog is gone where demand for 5,000 units per quarter will come from."

     

    Well, obviously JP, those 5,000 units per quarter will be sold to the rapidly expanding numbers of new American millionaires created each year in our booming economy.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • I must admit that GM is doing far better with the Volt than the Impact many years ago. That, of coarse, means nothing as better than a complete disaster doesn't end up as a bragging point on many resumes.

     

    Maybe giving away money does motivate people to buy? Someone with a PHD is probably sitting in a gov't chair right now studying what the impact of giving more money away might be.

     

    BTW, What's that symbol on the road in front of the Volt in this picture? ;)

     

    California can't get enough of the Chevy Volt as sales surge

     

    http://on.freep.com/MF...
    6 Jun 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • California, more than anyplace in the country, understands the value of HOV lane access.

     

    It's the one argument in favor of electric drive that has no logical counter-argument. If I'm an LA lawyer and bill $500 an hour, trimming an hour or two off my daily commute is a priceless perk.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • I just have to agree, John, but...

     

    Are you telling me those lawyers are NOT just burning up the cell towers with billable hours while they drive?

     

    Of course, even the high=powered executive encounters the occasional dead zone now and then.

     

    I think it just swings back around to the essential truth that there are folks who value their time so highly they are perfectly willing to pay for things (including HOV lane access) which save them that time.

     

    The rich have always spent money to accomplish this, from operating private jets to households full of servants. As a LIbertarian I vew this eternal verity with calm - its their money, let them spend it as they will.

     

    The quibble, as you so aptly point out, is that this time they are picking the pocket of their fellow taxpayers to subsidise their lifestyle and opinion.

     

    And yes, THAT is a bad thing.

     

    It would be interesting to see how many of the ecoroyalty take those big subsidy checks and turn around and donate them to some charity (or even some real environmental cause)...

     

    LOL, and no, I'm not talking about making payments on their new Tesla.
    6 Jun 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • My only comfort is that popular discontent over subsidizing the consumption of the rich at the cost of the masses developed a rather sharp edge in 18th century France. (THUNK)
    6 Jun 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Old but fitting!

     

    In France a priest, a lawyer and an engineer are about to be guillotined.
    The priest puts his head on the block, they pull the rope and nothing happens - he declares that he's been saved by divine intervention - so he's let go. The lawyer is put on the block, and again the rope doesn't release the blade, he claims he can't be executed twice for the same crime and he is set free too.
    They grab the engineer and shove his head into the guillotine, he looks up at the release mechanism and says:
    "Wait a minute, I see your problem......"
    6 Jun 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • So the rich would (perhaps without realizing it) take unfair advantage of our rules and regulations to benefit themselves (HOV lane access, tax credit, etc)?

     

    Kinda makes you wonder if that isn't how some of us, perhaps without realizing the inherent unfairness necessary, became rich in the first place.

     

    D
    6 Jun 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/MGk9r7
    6 Jun 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • I hear this sort of thing almost daily at the art shows and competitions:

     

    "You're so gifted".

     

    LOL, after spending 51 years learning and practicing the craft, its true, I can draw a good picture, or paint a good painting. And if I schlep my stuff from my garage for 2 hours, cram it into my vehicle - drive 10 hours rain or shine - spend 2 more hours unloading and setting up the initial part of the show - sleep on a rock hard hotel mattress - spend 2 more hours tweaking the show display and artwork - then work for 10 hours in the sun demonstrating, teaching and selling - then repeat the process Sunday - then take 2 hours to schlep the stuff back to the vehicle, load it (rain or shine) whether I sell anything or not - then drive 10 hours home - then unload everything for an hour to put it away... (Did I mention this is rain OR shine?)...

     

    Er, tell me again how "gifted" I am?

     

    I will venture a wild guess that most of the folks on this blog got whatever they have through hard work and determination, and in spite of government, not because of it.

     

    As for what I do with ink or paint, even I'm not sure how much comes from half a century of effort, and how much from inate talent. When it comes to any money I earn...

     

    I have no doubt it comes from the effort rather than the talent. I have known far too many starving artists to confuse the issue.
    6 Jun 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • I used to do Antique shows...how well I know about loading unloading and setting up a display booth. Then working 12 hours+/day. Then repeat the process to get home.
    You do earn your keep...more than earn it if possible.

     

    Needless to say, I appreciate your artistic ability and for sharing on multiple APC's here with a level of intelligence on multiple topics. That also comes from "hard work" researching along with a "little dab" of experience. :)
    6 Jun 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, guys. By 'us', I didn't mean 'us Axionistas'. I didn't mean to suggest any of us hadn't earned our sucess.

     

    I meant 'us human beings'. And really, I guess I meant 'us that are members of the ecoroyalty'.

     

    D
    7 Jun 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • During last years tour of the electrode plant, we were originally told to stay back away from the unit. (I think there was an imaginary line) We then entered the building, and that imaginary line soon disappeared, and people stood where they wanted.
    There was some proprietary info that they wanted to protect, and didn't.
    I suppose if someone wanted to send a spy, and have them wear the hat of a shareholder, that would have been the time. They even had curtains around it to keep delivery guys from seeing too much.
    6 Jun 2012, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for you helpful comment amishelvis.
    6 Jun 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Considering most of our opinions on storage, this is a sobering report from FERC on the Summer 2012 Energy Market - it would seem as much for what it doesn't say about storage as for what it does about declining natural gas prices. Notably, it would appear that this report doesn't have a dog in the fight as Pike, Lux, and the other cleantech research houses.

     

    2012 Summer Energy Energy Market and Reliability Assessment Reliability Assessment

     

    http://1.usa.gov/MdsTSV

     

    Thoughts or comments appreciated.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting report with a lot of information based on assumptions. This only works if they guessed right.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • SD -

     

    "Interesting report with a lot of information based on assumptions."

     

    - exactly, sometimes I wonder if I have too much faith/belief going the other way. Just trying to question my opinions.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Slide 4 > "The average on-peak wind capacity for the 2012 summer is forecast to be 11 percent of nameplate capacity." - 40 GW installed nameplate capacity with estimated 11% available on-peak suggests potential for energy storage market.

     

    Slide 13 > Discussion re-NG versus coal fired power generation suggests some threat to demand for coal transport and NSC locomotive investment timeline.
    6 Jun 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • First, Thanks Stefan as always for your shared findings.

     

    D-inv, I was just going to chime in on slide 4. If I was a rate payer in TX looking at my energy bill during summer peak rate periods, knowing my hard earned money supported those wind farms, I'd be just a little miffed. And look at the growth in nameplate capacity vs capacity projected on-peak. Do rational people do this type of investing in capacity?

     

    I'm not as worried about any NS delays at this point. If we were at the point where they were doing 10 or 20 conversions a quarter I'd worry more about them adjusting capital expenditures. At this point they are late and the need to have this technology in their pocket as a solution to higher energy prices/tightened emissions standards is a huge motivator to stay on track with their schedule.
    6 Jun 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • It's also worth noting that they're staring down the barrel of an EPA shotgun over particulate and other emissions that have nothing to do with fuel costs.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • I'm a ratepayer in North Texas. It's well known here that the hottest days have the least wind, so most the farms are a few hundred miles away in the panhandle. There is a strong correlation between temperature and sun, so solar may be more prominent if the max rate is increased from $3000 to $9000/Mwh. One financial model is that a third party owns the hardware and gets the peak revenue value, and the homeowner gets some % of cost reduction based on an average residential rate. Time displacement using storage has a place as well. That is what Xtreme is building.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • "It's well known here that the hottest days have the least wind, so most the farms are a few hundred miles away in the panhandle."

     

    Exactly JohnM, So why do we see all these years of adding wind generation and worrying about peak loads in the summer? It's like buying another ICE powered car because you can't get around in the vehicle you have due to a lack of fuel.

     

    I'm not so much a fan of taking capacity that didn't make sense in the first place and using batteries to time shift over priced energy. Back up and off grid....OK. Taking wind energy from some remote region and connecting it to the grid with batteries to shift the energy to a peak use period. No thanks.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • What I find interesting about the report is that in many cases the cost of electricity production is forecast to go down for 2012. However, the actually cost of our electric bills are going to be going up. Here in NC I know that Duke Energy is already planning on a 7% price increase to help pay for all the renewable power supplies they are being required to buy into. So while generation costs are going down, our actual bills keep going up.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Sunny days and windy nights. . . I've seen charts from Germany showing how distributed solar there cuts peak demand curves during the summer.

     

    Here is an exciting hybrid powerplant that combines wind with solar and natural gas.

     

    http://bit.ly/LswF6a

     

    Western Wind is another company that operates a combined wind and solar generation facility.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • But hey, I'm "Un-American". When I listen to some of our idiot reps it doesn't seem like such a bad badge.

     

    "Beebe Says Opposition To Wind Industry Tax Credits ‘Un-American’"

     

    http://bit.ly/Nih9QL

     

    More tax credits.

     

    http://bit.ly/Niha73
    6 Jun 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM, actually temperature and solar production are negatively correlated. For the same amount of irradiation, solar panels produce LESS as their temperature rises. Maximun solar irradiation, all year, is about 9 am to 3 pm, even though the temperature will still be rising at 4 pm. Maximun electric demand is typically 4 pm to 8 pm, when solar irradiance is declining rapidly. The panels are getting very hot, and are producing less, too.

     

    Even though there is plenty of light at 6 pm, the irradiance is not strong. The net effect of PV solar is to make the ramp up in production even steeper in the afternoon, putting even more strain on the gas peakers. More strain means more maintenance and less efficient fuel use, i.e., lose-lose.

     

    increasing the subsidy for PV just makes more PV destabilizing for the grid, and raises costs for all other ratepayers. Lose-lose-lose.
    6 Jun 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, thanks for sharing that info about solar PV production! It seems very important to understand.
    I'm wondering, what is your conclusion about the value of solar PV connected to the grid? Does the fact that it provides electricity without fuel cost on sunny days from 9a to 3p give it a place in the mix?
    7 Jun 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • With very rare exceptions, adding grid-connected PV without storage adds to grid instability, and sometimes actually adds to total fossil fuel use. Economically, GCPV is hugely subsidized by all other ratepayers, on top of the 30% federal subsidy and various state subsidies.

     

    If PV installations were required to have adequate storage, they could be a very positive impact. However, adequate storage would more than double the cost of a PV system.
    8 Jun 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • And that would be a bad thing for Axion?
    8 Jun 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • I would love to see a regulation that requires grid-connected PV to have 1 day of storage, e.g. a 1 kw system would be required to have 6 kwhr of storage. [A solar system will typically produce energy for about six hours per day, unless it rains, etc.] This would be enough storage to time shift peak production to peak demand, supply some limited UPS service, add robustness to the grid, and stabilize peak demand pricing.

     

    And it would probably help Axion.
    8 Jun 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Now I need an education. I know that a battery array needs a set of costly power control and conversion hardware. I also know that solar needs a set of costly power control and conversion hardware. If you build solar and batteries as an integrated system, what percentage of the power control and conversion hardware can be common as opposed to discrete?
    8 Jun 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • JP asks a very interesting question, Rick. My own perception (formed in relative ignorance) is that addition of battery storage to a PV array system would add little to no additional cost for power control and conversion hardware. Isn't the real cost for PCC hardware in PV systems driven by need to convert DC current to AC for use with appliances or grid feed? Couldn't PV-generated DC power flow directly into a battery bank with no need of conversion until power is drawn from the battery bank?
    8 Jun 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Battery charging is an arcane science. For best results, very precise voltages are required for each phase of charging (typically 3 or 4 phases), and often power control is needed, too. Battery temperature is monitored, as maximun charge rates are dependent on temp.

     

    PVs put out a huge range of voltages. A typical nominal 12 volt panel may put out as much as 48 volts on a very cold, sunny day, but usually operate around 15 -18 volts. The variable DC voltage has to be regulated to precise battery charging voltages. A nominal 12 volt AGM battery is rapidly destroyed if charged at over 14.2 v at normal temps. Flooded batteries are much more forgiving, and are often charged at 14.8 v, and even higher for equalization.

     

    Short answer, charging circuitry is different than inverter circuitry.
    8 Jun 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Very interesting, Rick. From the sound of your brief outline of variability in PV panel power output and differences between that output and charge acceptance of LABs, a PbC battery pack would be much better suited for temporary storage of PV array power than FLABs or AGMs.
    8 Jun 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • I believe a ZBB EnerSection could do both.

     

    Along these lines, I found this article in MIT technology review interesting -

     

    http://bit.ly/LBml00
    8 Jun 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv, if you concluded PbC would be better because of the voltage variability of PV, I did not explain it well.

     

    ALL lead batteries, including PbC, have precise charging regimens. Axion has not published the exact protocol for PbC, however, since it is valve regulated lead battery (VRLA), it will be damaged if over charged. Charge a nominal 16 v PbC at 22 volts and I am sure it will be severely damaged in a few hours. The charger has to be regulated.

     

    PbC have many features that are not relevant to PV. PbC has very high charge acceptance, i.e., it can accept a charge very fast and often. PV is generally slow charging, lasting all day. The high acceptance rate for PbC would be an advantage for occasional emergency top offs from a diesel generator in an off-grid location. A grid connected PV system would not need rapid charging, as that would just stress the grid. [I am assuming first world grid with power reliability >95%; totally different story for African grid with < 50% reliability]

     

    PbC would be great because of Depth of Discharge. Flooded batteries die after a few dozen 100% discharges; PbC reportedly can go for thousands of 100% discharges. To have a decent life, deep discharge flooded batteries are discharged to only 50% of their capacity, and have a life of several thousand cycles. (Light starter batteries do not last this long). So a PbC at twice the cost per kwhr of a flooded will still be a much more reliable battery.

     

    PbC will also be good as an energy stabilizer, with many small cycles to cover motor starts, high peak loads, and, if controlled centrally, can play a major role in stabilizing the grid.

     

    However, all of these features are independent of PV varying voltages and PbC .
    8 Jun 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Missing from this dialogue is the device placed between the PV array and the batteries - the charge controller.

     

    http://bit.ly/KmTnNe

     

    It is very common to connect PV arrays in series to produce a higher voltage (150-600VDC) in order to use smaller cable and provide a more intelligent charging method.

     

    Most charge controllers and inverters have a profiles for different battery types. Most are not battery type specific but offer voltage and duration settings for the 3-4 phase charging cycles. I doubt we would have a problem setting the parameters once Axion published them.

     

    Solar panels, charge controllers, inverters and batteries are all part of the standard residential setup. Time shifting is not something that I have investigated in these systems but is just software and I suspect more than one manufacturer is working on this at the very moment.

     

    Also, I maintain the position that the PbC could be mixed with other battery types to produce the optimum storage solution. The PbC has virtually no resistance and would play well in the battery sandbox...
    8 Jun 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • :-) Rick, you explanation of battery charging was quite clear. I just do not speak fluent electronic/electrical and did not fully understand the meaning of "charge acceptance."

     

    In light of the additional info provided, I take it that a controller between a solar panel and battery bank is needed to "transform" solar panel output into a levelized voltage with variable amps?
    8 Jun 2012, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Rick might not use a charge controller (CC) and since I brought it up I will try to answer your question. The CC will convert the variable wattage generated by the panels to match the parameters setup in the configuration to perform a 3 stage (bulk, absorb, float) charge sequence on the battery bank.

     

    For example, in the morning the bulk phase would start and provide a steady voltage to the bank until a set voltage 14.4v was reached at which time it would start the absorb stage which would hold this voltage until the amperage became minimal (battery bank full) at which time it would switch the voltage to 13.6v to keep the bank topped off...
    8 Jun 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, it would not surprise me that the EnerSection would take the solar array as a DC input but the specs didn't mention MPPT which optimizes the PV output.

     

    Have a look at the Princeton specs (GTIB). They have an input dedicated to PV...

     

    http://bit.ly/ub2KpR

     

    The Rosewater residential mini-cube will have an inverter that will grid tie, interface with PV and Wind and manage the storage. We will have to wait a few months to get the details as they would not share the inverter specs with me <grin>...
    8 Jun 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Tim.
    8 Jun 2012, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, I do use a charge controller. Thanks for the concise explanation of it for others.
    9 Jun 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tim -

     

    I have studied both PP's GTIB and DRI inverters. Interestingly, the GTIB spec sheet specifically states in its specifications that it accommodates lead carbon batteries.

     

    Are you referring to this description for ZBB?
    http://bit.ly/JTGf2t

     

    I don't consider it exactly a spec sheet in the same sense as what PP provides. And you are correct that it doesn't specifically mention MPPT - however, it does state that the EnerSection

     

    "Accommodates multiple AC and DC load and generation types"
    and "Provides a continuous supply of energy and optimizes all of the interconnected resources."

     

    Maybe I just assumed that it had MPPT in order to accomplish this?
    9 Jun 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan, you are right the ZBB document does not reference MPPT. I usually see MPPT controllers independent of the inverter/charger circuitry. See http://bit.ly/Kp7HEX

     

    Often you will want separate MPPTs for separate groups of PV panels, especially if you have mixed ages or types of PV.
    9 Jun 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, my understanding of the EnerSection is that it has separate "buckets" for each input and for which "buckets" can be added if you want to add solar arrays, wind turbines, micro turbines, fuel cells, etc. to your installation.

     

    Maybe they have MPPT in the "bucket" that is specific to the solar array ... I will see if I can find out.
    9 Jun 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,

     

    You got me looking and it appears all three products; DRI, GTIB and Energy storage have lead carbon as a supported battery type. To me, this just shows that once the needs of the battery are known that it's just a matter of building the profile in software. Once the needs of the PbC are known to ZBB I am sure it will be added to their list.

     

    Slide 21 of the following presentation has a section on the ZBB POWR PECC that states the use of MPPT. I could not find anything with EnerSection and MPPT but would find it hard to believe they are not doing something...

     

    http://bit.ly/KSw7wv
    9 Jun 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tim,

     

    Interesting presentation, I had not run into that one before. The ZBB changed the name from the POWR PECC to the EnerSection along with the EnerStore (battery). Both together make up their EnerSystem.

     

    I can't remember, but someone here proposed the combo of Axion's battery's with ZBB's flow battery for a total system which would then include both power and energy batteries - tied together with an EnerSection.

     

    This is such an installation, but using lead acid batteries -
    http://mwne.ws/LEGdiD
    9 Jun 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,

     

    "I can't remember, but someone here proposed the combo of Axion's battery's with ZBB's flow battery for a total system which would then include both power and energy batteries - tied together with an EnerSection."

     

    I am a big fan of this idea and suspect we will see more of this...
    9 Jun 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • >Stefan Moroney ... Yes, I did starting about 3 years ago and I still think the system makes good sense. Specifically for off-grid but as a long duration UPS in sites with multiple transient loads.
    9 Jun 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Here is a presentation that I found from last spring that states the following about the PECC/EnerSection on slide 6 -

     

    "Segmented PV Array with MPPT per Section"

     

    http://bit.ly/KZUYOQ
    11 Jun 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fun link from Stationary Storage News

     

    Why the lithium air battery is over hyped – http://bit.ly/Ki9uxt
    6 Jun 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • From the same source:
    Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) has developed a vehicle-to_home (V2H) system for the mutual sharing of power between plug-in vehicles—plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs) and electric vehicles (EVs)—and homes. The V2H system is to start testing, using Prius PHVs, at the end of 2012 in approximately ten households as part of the Toyota City Low-Carbon Verification Project (Toyota City Project) that began in April 2010.

     

    The announcement follows on Nissan’s introduction of the LEAF-to-home V2H system, which can supply electricity from Nissan LEAF electric vehicles (EV) to residential homes when used with the “EV Power Station” unit—also a 6 kW charger for charging the LEAF—developed by Nichicon Corporation

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7df...
    6 Jun 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • >FPA ... If it works at home it surly will work at the office. Imagine the surprise at Rush Hour on a hot August day when EV owners discover the utility has used their car to smooth the grid. I like it.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Why is it that the utilities are so slow at adding storage to their turf but they love the idea of getting their hands on your 10+kUSD car battery?

     

    Can I borrow your car? Enlighten me as to how this statement differs from the first after you're done cringing.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... I wish I had an answer. Last I looked, Toyota & Nissan weren't utilities. If this gizmo was being developed or subsidized by Duke Energy, or the like, I'd be sharpening my pitchfork and dipping the torches in used motor oil and then looking for a CEO.

     

    I'm guessing this is just a pointless option that can be used around the house on the weekend because I thought the EV dream was to plug-in the critter after work and rest their range anxiety frayed nerves. That leaves doing V2G at the workplace where from what I have read people are supposed to charge it up on the employers dime and now it's let's drain it when the building needs it. Makes me wonder why Tesla didn't think of it.

     

    Oh, yeah ... you can borrow my '97 Tercel. I put a new battery in it just last summer.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich,

     

    If it has any use at all it's as a personal battery back-up system to bridge a short power outage. Who in their right mind is going to take a 30+ kUSD battery powered PHEV and let someone else wear the battery out.

     

    Oh and that warranty! Forgetaboutit.

     

    Thanks for the offer. Does it have flames? :))
    6 Jun 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Sorry, no flames, but it will do 0 to 60 mph over several minutes and has a near miraculous power to irritate other drivers. I love it.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    What are you talking about? Of course the EV group is going to line up to let the electric companies wear out their batteries in the name of grid management! Haven't you read the comments they leave on John's articles extolling just that fact? You miss the point. They are going to willingly do this because the batteries "never" wear out. Oh, and even when they can't be used for their EVs anymore, they are going to recoup most of their original investment by selling the battery to a secondary market for grid storage. Sheez...you really need to drink the EV Koolaid more often! ;-)
    Of course you might be right if some Joe Schmoe buys an EV and doesn't know all this...but then again...where would he get the money?
    6 Jun 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, I usually read John's articles re: EV's but tend to shy away from reading too much of the comment section. I get Ohmy flashbacks from some of the remarks.

     

    Hopefully some day I'll be able to say PHEV's make sense. It took me a long time to say that about hybrids but they have arrived to some extent. Of coarse much of the savings in that sector is coming from other innovations and people getting slapped in the face with economic realities and downsizing.
    6 Jun 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • From Canada - the government is to investigate safety and performance of alternative powered vehicles. Supposedly they will start reporting in July.

     

    http://bit.ly/M8GHL4

     

    Transport Canada’s ecoTechnology for Vehicles program will also start to investigate the safety and environmental performance of electric, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen vehicles, in the next year, said Transport Canada spokesperson Patrick Charette. The program will also look at commercial vehicles for the first time, researching new hybrid technologies and aerodynamic improvements for heavy-duty trucks and trailers.

     

    The money for the program was allocated in the 2011 budget, so it’s not a new program, but the focus on safety research does seem to be a relatively new point of emphasis. Concerns over the safety of battery technology was heightened with news in the past year of an EV battery explosion at a GM research facility while undergoing extreme testing, even after a probe by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration into the fire resistance of the Volt’s special battery pack found it did not pose any undue fire risk.

     

    The program’s findings are set to be made available to the public on the program’s website at http://www.tc.gc.ca/eTV in July, said Charette, with some findings already presented at industry tire and electric vehicle conferences.
    6 Jun 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ohhh Noooo, one of our 22 year old five article wonders has put me in my place – http://seekingalpha.co...?

     

    His head will explode tomorrow when my next piece hits.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I'm not going to make a big deal of how, why, when to use Stops. I will tell you that he has a legitimate point that they can, and have been, very dangerous to use. In these days of HFT quantsbots, there is always the chance of a bid pulling event. Remember the "FLASH CRASH". A really bad day to have a stop in place unless you can react faster than a program. Just sayin'. I've also watched pro-traders clear stops before moving a stock in their preferred direction. Life is full of risk, unless you use CDS, I guess.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • I don't trust them and don't use them since I had one kick in that went through way below the price it could have been sold for with a limit order and I felt completely ripped off.

     

    Look at AXPW for an example of a stock where a stop loss would have killed me when the bottom fell out in December last year. If you wanted to give yourself some measure of protection in a stock you could set up a trigger order where if the stock fell to X it would trigger a limit sell order at Y. At least you wouldn't let the MM grab your stock for whatever he wanted to pay.

     

    I occasionally use trigger orders with a fairly high limit order price to catch a gap up before it completely runs away from me. I had one trigger order set up for AXPW where if the price hit .47 a limit order for .60 would kick in. I later just cancelled and used the funds tied up by ther trigger order to just by some more AXPW at whatever the price was at the time.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • I don't usually advocate stop-losses, but with a sub-orbital market cap like Tesla's I think they're essential for investors who don't closely monitor the markets. You'll be happy to know that today I took off my tin foil hat for a while and dug out the old green eye shade.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • stop loss with less info/clarity. axpw makes little sense to stop loss. you are just giving big sellers a target indirectly imo.

     

    blue chips selling off in flash crashes makes little sense to me but it still happens. putting in crazy low limit orders to take advantage can work there.

     

    i don't like to throw out any investment "tools".
    6 Jun 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Can't say I disagree that tacit investor need to cover their downside risk. I think that in this Robot driven market that puts & calls will work better for those that understand them. Stops Loss & Limit Sells are completely visible to anyone that is willing to pay to see them and that is the real reason I think they are dangerous.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • "since I had one kick in that went through way below the price it could have been sold"

     

    Use "stop limit" order.

     

    A regular "stop order" converts to "market order". Stop-limit converts to a limit order, preventing what you describe.

     

    That's *all* I use now *if* I use any kind of stop.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jun 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • AONE hiring.

     

    I guess that's a good thing.

     

    http://reut.rs/KPk1D2
    6 Jun 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • This will kind of give you a perspective of the scale of Germany's solar capacity.

     

    http://reut.rs/KPkJQK
    6 Jun 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • ....but what the heck does GW per hour mean? 22 GW *for* an hour?

     

    sigh... knuckleheads.
    6 Jun 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • So are they going to add 20GW of NG turbines for those rainy days, after they shut down the nukes?

     

    They didn't mention that ;-)
    7 Jun 2012, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • There is a geopolitical element to European efforts to shift from nuclear to NG...

     

    They get far too much of their NG from Russia. Many europeans are leery of making plans to greatly increase that dependence, as Russia has demonstrated the will to use this dependence as a geopolitical weapon...

     

    But this is a logical, fact-based group seeking knowledge, whereas the political decision will be made upon emotional, feelings-based ignorance.

     

    Elections have consequences, and that would include those just completed in France and those upcoming in future months in Germany.

     

    As a geopolitical equation, is it likely to anticipate that a far left new German coalition government might lack a logical fear of what they erroneously view are their fellow travelers in the Putin administration? I believe so, so the answer might well be that Germany does embark on a program to close down the nukes, build some (but probably not enough, those doing the figuring will have moonbeams in their charts) natural gas plants, and hugely increase their strategic dependence on the kindness of the Russians.
    7 Jun 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • The most fascinating wild card in that deck is ongoing work to find out whether the expected shale gas and oil reserves in Poland can be produced economically. If Polish work proves shale gas is a reality in Europe too, then Germany will also be an attractive exploration province and the prospect of some energy self sufficiency there would be even more alluring than it is in the States. I don't know if you read Stratfor, but it's one of my favorite subscriptions.
    7 Jun 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • I would be surprised (given the fact that the initial finds long ago in the US have shown such a titanic growth pattern with the new tech) if the Polish (and potentially, the German) deposits were not going to be important in, say, the next decade. I believe its very likely.

     

    The pinch point will (there is an irony in the timing of these events which never ceases to amaze) very likely be this decade, of course.

     

    I love Stratfor, but I am no longer subscribed personally, I rely upon the kindness of friends for excerpts.
    7 Jun 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • I also wonder how the LNG from the US might play into the equation? There are several gas companies ramping up their ability to export shale gas to other parts of the world in the form of LNG and Europe has always been one of their target markets.
    7 Jun 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • A recap of a comment I made recently on QuickChat:

     

    agree, HTL. Part of the problem is that the portability issue has not been addressed. There is a planetary transport system capable of taking ANY barrel of oil and moving it all over the world. Similar portability for NG might one day occur (http://bit.ly/rmHAbP), but right now that infrastructure is puny with very spotty coverage. To view natural gas as a proxy for oil is to miss this critical shortcoming. Some re-balance of this comparison occurs due to the wacky treatment of refinery capacity, particularly in the US, but still...

     

    As we have seen, natural gas pricing is geographically confined. There is no reason to assume that these geographic limits will precisely overlay matching demand structure, either. Freya and others on this blog have for long viewed the LNG investments with an eye for the future, and that story is still young and vibrant, imo. As energy content price imbalance between NG and oil occurs on a regional basis, the push to capitalize on this situation will move LNG along at a rapid clip. Political and geopolitical factors (like the ascendence of the Greens in Europe, and the fukushima reactor debacle in Japan) will tend to add further force to the price pressure.
    7 Jun 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • France has banned fracking.
    7 Jun 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • It's retaliation for the fois gras ban in California.

     

    http://bit.ly/MrxBsz
    8 Jun 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): OMG! The bottom fell out! :-))

     

    After 18 consecutive trades @ $0.35, two trades went at $0.349! And before those 18, one $0.342 and 4 more @ $0.35

     

    14:09, Smaller summary than usual at mid-day: low $0.342 high $0.35, AvTrSz: 7166, VWAP: 0.3497, Vol 164825, AvTrSz: 6868, b:s 3.62:1.

     

    MMs of NITE and EGRO have been the top of the ask @ $0.35 all day - but someone finally snuck (or in the new American English is it "sneaked" now?) in at $0.349!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jun 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • also, the low (.342) was a cross trade from one account to another. (assuming that was a 25k block).

     

    this cross trade and another purchase gave me all the shares i bought today a nice .3499 #.
    6 Jun 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • I lucked up with the .342 purchase. I had a bid in for 2000 @ .3465. There was a bid of .342 for 25K below me. For some reason I received 1900 shares at .342. I waited it out rest of the day and bought 100 at .35 to make sure we closed at .35.
    6 Jun 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tragic: 1,900 shares @ 9:42:57. We had 3 25K blocks and a few sets of 2x12.5K.

     

    Good acquisitions regardless.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jun 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • i moved 25 k and bought 50k more today so those 3 are mine. looking at 'em i moved a block at .349 , then bought a .35 block. the .395 buy late day replaced the moved shares.

     

    so i played with myself and won a stand off.
    6 Jun 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • The 50 USD stare down. Now that's Axionista for sure.
    6 Jun 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • And the tension becomes intolerable as the bid/ask goes to $3495/$0.35 50K/2x5K (presented - but there tons behind that).

     

    Who will win this epic struggle over 5/100ths of a penny?

     

    Shall we start a pool?

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jun 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • And the Canadians eliminated the penny. They must not realize how valuable they really are. Here we have an epic show down over 1/20th of that!

     

    Ole Clint would be sweating bullets by now.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Funny as hell HTL!
    6 Jun 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • In one of those very small world coincidences Chris VanCleef, Lee's grandson, is working for my wife's social media startup. With any luck at all somebody with billions in cash lying around will decide they have to buy her out.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Does he have that steely eyed stare?

     

    I have a feeling that after MySpace and FB people are going to be giving social media assets a more cautious multiple. I know Rupert probably is!
    6 Jun 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mmmmmm, no! But he's a nice kid with a lot of good contacts. Nice thing about A-round financing is the amount is way more important than the valuation and the ladies do understand Rule 1 – take the money.
    6 Jun 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • i won.

     

    i your FACE! ::pockets 25k shares::

     

    those shares cost basis at .3499 cents a share after fees, that looks nice to my OCD.
    6 Jun 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • And I was right. The standoff had Axionista written all over it.

     

    http://bit.ly/LBjqSZ
    6 Jun 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco, (others)
    BMW question. If we understand correctly, PbC is now entering scaled fleet testing with BMW, following upon successful and extensive bench testing, and low number vehicle testing. Assuming BMW began evaluating a number of different battery/storage technologies as part of their efficiency package (Li, AGM, AGM-paste, Ultra, PbC, capacitors et alia) looking for something that worked for them on cost, milage efficiency (via stop-start and regenerative braking etc. technologies), how many of these storage solutions do you imagine would be taken through to the costly fleet testing stage before deciding whether or not to move to a production decision?
    6 Jun 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • A combination of a FLA with the PbC is the only combination I believe would meet their requirements.
    6 Jun 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj,

     

    It would depend on how things went in their prior testing and what their future business plans are. Given they are currently using AGM for SS I would expect them to have an active program testing improved batteries in this area for future programs and to back feed improvements into their service organization if they deem it necessary.

     

    I would expect that if they are moving the PBC battery into fleet testing they would also be moving alternatives as well if they have future platform needs at this level. Why alternatives? Well, automakers don't like single sources for their components for many reasons. Also, lets face it, there is risk in Axion's ability to transition to becoming an automotive supplier. I happen not to think they would be welcomed as a tier one supplier and as such they need to have a larger partner to manage all the risks associated with supplying the industry.

     

    How many alternatives would they mover forward with? Not one, but after that it's hard to say. It really depends on their platform needs and how their lab testing has gone. If I was to venture a guess I'd say PBC, Ultrabattery, AGM w/ carbon, lithium ion and maybe Powergenix. I say Powergenix because they have Chinese operations as well. Perhaps they have platform test openings to assess that there. Auto companies like to localize suppliers to manage logistics costs and reduce geopolitical risks.

     

    As I kind of indicated all these options might not be tested in the same vehicles. It's possible that they could be tested in different vehicles based on the needs of the target market of the vehicle and even possibly based on the different geographic or regulatory markets they are going into. An American expects much different things from his/her vehicle than a European or a Chinese or.... So do the various regulatory bodies.

     

    So as you can see it's hard to nail down exactly because their future business plans are extensive based on their scale and future corporate business strategy.
    6 Jun 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj > "BMW question. If we understand correctly, PbC is now entering scaled fleet testing with BMW, ...."

     

    Could be the PbC is in "scaled fleet testing", but as far as I can remember we only know the battery testing has moved beyond bench testing. We love have something more confirmed.
    6 Jun 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • I don't recall TG even mentioning BMW in the last CC. Nor was he asked any BMW related questions.

     

    Is this correct?
    6 Jun 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • If it wasn't Q1 is was EOY. There was some discussion on the board because some thought they may have already been doing fleet testing. Also TG mentioned that BMW was on a cc during the CC. If I remember correctly it was EOY.
    6 Jun 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: I do recall during the EOY CC BMW being mentioned, but not during the most recent CC.

     

    Oh well...we will know in 15 days.
    6 Jun 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    I don't know if he mentioned BMW specifically, would have to go back and check, but he did mention that fleet testing was the next step for their auto OEM(s). Since we assume BMW is ahead of everyone else in their testing, it is reasonable to assume he was referring to BMW.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech > "... he did mention that fleet testing was the next step for their auto OEM(s)."

     

    What scale of operations would one expect in "fleet testing"? 25? 50? 100? 500?
    6 Jun 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv "What scale of operations would one expect in "fleet testing"? 25? 50? 100? 500? "

     

    IINDelco can answer better than I, but I would assume it's not just a matter of how many total cars they would be testing the PbC in, but also in how many different models. Are they just looking at the PbC for one of their lines or for multiple levels of hybrids? That's the real question in my mind.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Powergenix is an interesting company and I've been in regular contact with their CEO Dan Squiller since the summer of 2009. Powergenix recently teamed with a Chinese manufacturer to make automotive batteries. Their January 2012 press release on the joint venture says "By the end of 2012, the joint venture will have capacity to produce 400,000 auto batteries per year.”

     

    Unless there's more going on than meets the eye, I think that the work Powergenix has done with automakers has involved preliminary testing of one-off concept prototypes, which is where Axion started in 2009. I won't exclude Powergenix as a potential player, but I do believe they're a couple years behind Axion on the testing track.
    7 Jun 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • The scale of the fleet testing would depend on the factors that the experts would suggest they take into consideration. The experts would include both internal resources and external inputs such as risk factors suggested by Axion. They might end up with x number of different groups of various sizes in different use patterns and climates as an example.

     

    Also, the numbers might be adjusted based on the needs of other components that are new on some of the platforms. Remember that the energy storage devices would not be the only new systems being launched. So they would have to factor in the needs of all the other new systems being tested with their respective risk factors. After all the component/system launch teams chime in the statisticians would make sure that the group sizes are adequate to deliver representative data for the intended population and that there are enough options being tested to protect the timing of the program.

     

    All this planing is managed by component launch teams and platform teams that represent the future vehicle to be launched. It's also shared at some frequency with the executive staff of the company. This is required to manage the risks of the respective parties and the company as a whole. One has to realize that there are interests to protect at different levels. All the stake holders at each level have differing goals to protect and there has to be a level of oversight to make sure that each parties interests are weighed against those of the whole.
    7 Jun 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): EOD. First, I see a lot of things on my experimental charts aligning as they were back around the 3/19 time-frame. A week or so later we had the start of a push that took us to $0.47 on 4/30. There are differences, most notably in certain magnitudes, but I feel there's a good chance we might repeat at least a part of that run to get over $0.42.

     

    I will post the chart in my instablog tonight so that you all have time to view what you want and think on it. I'll post a thorough discussion of it sometime before market open in the morning.

     

    Do keep in mind the limited data set so far and the experimental nature.

     

    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 204575, AvTrSz: 5845
    Min. Pr: 0.3420, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3497 (only 7 trades below $0.35)
    # Buys, Shares: 29 142275, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3500
    # Sells, Shares: 6 62300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3490
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.28:1, DlyShts 133750 65.4%

     

    The new chart should be up about 20:15 EDT here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Commentary in the A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jun 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    Maybe on the run, but I believe there's still a ton of shares at 35 cents available. I placed three 25k buy orders at 35 cents and all three filled within a minute or less and didn't move the ask quote one bit. Also, EGRO's probably now representing the 35 cent deal's purchasers who want out at breakeven. That could be hardly any shares, but it could also be millions.

     

    Hope you're right on your "soon to run up a bit" guess.
    7 Jun 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • i agree that the 35 cent sellers are plentiful. they are still coming off late to fill orders. BUT technical analysis still often predicts these moves accurately. i imagine a higher JP profile AND official news on a DOD contract could "cause" the run up HTL is predicting.

     

    the raw data is telling us something about today's buyers and sellers, and under 35 cent sellers are approaching exhausted. it will turn quickly imo when AXPW gets a profile boost.
    7 Jun 2012, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Surprised to see someone else still awake this late. Unless you're way to the west.
    7 Jun 2012, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • nah, i live in SC. i just take naps more than sleep.
    7 Jun 2012, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • MrI: I agree. I Was "stinking" about that this morning. Looking at the continued ability to advance to there and not much further recently.

     

    From Feb-to-date, we exchanged 26.996M shares. Using JP's divide by 2, we should be near cleaning house at ~13.5M, even allowing for some odd profit-taking by others.

     

    Here's what got my eye yesterday: the daily short sales spiked big time. Is it a sign of exhausting flipper shares residing at a brokerage that owns a MM? I don't know. There's other stuff that's aligning too.

     

    It may turn out to be nothing, but it will be interesting to see if my unconventional stuff might be catching something.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jun 2012, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • I also think the 13.5mil shares included a lot more selling "trading" than some others here probably think. I'm an example. I sold a bunch of shares (by my standards), then bought back in, a couple of times over that period. So what part of the 13.5mil counts against the big sellers' supply inventory? 75%? 50%? 25%?

     

    I certainly hope that the selling is near an end, but don't see a good sign of it yet. More importantly to me, I'd love to see the opposite--big BUYING with no sign of an end.
    7 Jun 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • if i read HTL correctly the total share count is 27ish mil, so 50 percent. am i misreading it?
    7 Jun 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Does anyone have saved copies of transcripts of old Axion Power conference calls (prior to year end 2010) that they would be willing to email to me? If so, please PM me. (Not searching for anything in particular, I'd just like to take a look.)
    6 Jun 2012, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This way to a fresh new concentrator ----------->

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Jun 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
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