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Axion Power Concentrator 117: June 20, 2012: RAILWAY AGE | How Norfolk Southern Is "Getting The Lead Out" 165 comments
These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.
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Axion Power Shareholders' Conference: June 21, 2012
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RAILWAY AGE | How Norfolk Southern is "getting the lead out" By William C. Vantllono, June 2012
NS-999, Norfolk Southern's experimental 100% electric (all-battery) switcher, is undergoing an extensive rebuild with a new type of battery that, according to supplier Axion Power International, "is ideally suited for both electric and hybrid locomotive applications due to its high charge acceptance, fast charge and discharge capabilities - important in regenerative braking - and an inherent ability to equalize voltage when utilized in large string configurations."
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Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:
(updated June 17th)
(click to enlarge)
Concentrator Comments: 20,000 comments surpassed on June 1st!
(updated June 17th)
(click to enlarge)
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LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.
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Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.
Enjoy!
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.OB.
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This post has 165 comments:
"While exact battery prices for the Volt and the Leaf are not known, there are estimates of $US 10,000 for the 16 kWh Volt battery (625 $/kWh) and $US 15,600 for the 24 kWh LEAF battery (~650 $/kWh). Thus these two major programs should add to an initial annual Li-ion turnover of around $US 1 billion. However, both companies are seriously behind schedule."
"Obama's program to put 1 million plug-in electric vehicles on the road by 2015. From an optimistic base of 50,000 plug-ins circulating in 2011, this would correspond to a 20-fold increase in 4 years only. According to China's five-year draft plan, the nation has the ambition of building up an annual 1 million production capacity of 'new energy vehicles' (such as HEVs, PHEVs and pure EVs) and then to increase annual production capacity to 5 million NEVs by 2020. China has committed about $15 billion for vehicle electrification over the next ten years. Japan's METI wants 50% of all new cars in 2020 to be hybrids or plug-ins. Germany announced a plan for 1 million electric cars on their roads by 2020.
All these programs are politically driven and it is unlikely that all the ambitious goals can be met, simply because of cost/benefit economics. Batteries are just too expensive compared to fossil fuels and the situation will not change rapidly. It is unlikely that the US DOE goal of lowering complete vehicle-class Li-ion batteries from today's >600 $/kWh to the targeted 250 $/kWh can be achieved by 2015."
That pretty much says it all.
I believe that the costs for raw materials is going to go the opposite direction, ie, increase by about 30-40% over the 4 year period. This will apply to all companies, including China. Labor costs will probably go up somewhat, since these are mature, automated manufacturing processes already, so figure at least 20% increases there. Finally the costs of operating the various corporate structures will go up, particularly since most of them were created as corporate welfare basket cases rather than vibrant, independent companies.
In the West the AONE example will be the norm. In China it will be less chaotic by far, but also likely that the Chinese will make tactical changes to their plans with abrupt finality.
At the end of the day government will have wasted billions once again attempting to legislate innovation, but I suspect the Chinese will have wasted much less than their counterparts in the West. They have a long and hugely successful history of buying up Western mistakes of this kind for pennies on the dollar.
http://bloom.bg/Mr2TmS
http://bloom.bg/NiYJhM
1) Only a small percentage of lithium compounds that are mined are battery grade lithium carbonate. Most are used for various industrial purposes. In all the articles I read, it is stated that a mining company mines "X" thousand tons per year or has "Y" million tons in reserve. The articles never say how much is battery grade ore and how much is industrial grade.
2) The Bloomberg article John cites below states that an average mobile phone has 1.7 grams of lithium carbonate equivalent and an average battery electric car has about 19.2 kg of lithium compounds. The following is very sophisticated mathematics so you will have to follow closely. Dividing 19,200 grams by 1.7 grams means one average BEV needs as much battery grade lithium as 11, 294 mobile phones. Putting one million new BEV's on the road worldwide will be the equivalent of adding 11.3 billion new mobile phones, or a lesser number of iPhones or laptops or whatever. The point is there is not that much battery grade lithium in the world. Even if there were, this level of demand would push the price of lithium to that of gold or platinum.
It's the sort of thing that should be widely understood.
Thanks!
HardToLove
If you take almost any lithium-ion battery, the commodity value of the materials is somewhere between $1 and $5 per pound. Despite the low raw materials cost, the finished product costs somewhere between $30 and $50 a pound. That entire spread is absorbed in purifying the raw materials, making close tolerance components and producing a finished product.
Talison http://bit.ly/LDTDsQ and some of their non-China Asian customers have taken note:
http://bloom.bg/LkIyQH
Talison has significant South American reserves which they've put on a slower (not stopped) road to development as they focus their financial resources on first the recent doubling of their production in Australia, and second (with a high degree of certainly) the plant mentioned in the above link.
Australia: http://bit.ly/LDTDsS
Proposed Australia conversion plant: http://bit.ly/LkIAYQ
South America (Salares 7): http://bit.ly/LkIAYS
Fuel-Cell Frenzy Looks to Convert Obama Favoring Plug-Ins
http://bloom.bg/Mg5j5G
It's a politically driven non-starter.
1) Could you update us on recent and expected FERC regulatory decisions and timelines and whether you have seen customer PowerCube purchasing decisions on when to sign contracts affected?
2) While the market for PowerCube like devices is huge, there is significant competition developing from both large well capitalized system integrators, and also public and private inverter companies, who provide the most expensive part of such systems and as such affords those companies, in addition to their power electronics expertise, power in setting the lowest system prices. While I understand the need to offer these systems today, how long do you see us trying to help create that market, and do you see us becoming a pure component supplier to the market once our capabilities are demonstrated and a demand for PbC based systems is created?
Rephrasing suggestions to increase useful information are of course encouraged.
Yesterday Iindelco posted a link to a Green Car Congress headline, "ITF analysis finds that societal costs for electric cars and vans range from €7K to €12K more than fossil-fueled equivalents."
I followed the links back to the actual study from the ITF, which is an operating unit of the OECD in Paris, and was amazed by the detailed analysis that effectively trashed EVs even for France's all nuclear grid. Given the source, the piece is pretty scathing. It truly is worth a skim if not a detailed study.
http://bit.ly/L1TNJg
Once again, Iindelco has won my Gold Star Researcher of the Week Award. Way to go man.
The first clue that I was going to love the report was the author's use of the Hype Cycle graph on the second page of the discussion.
"Recent estimates put the global electric vehicle fleet at over 120 million in 2010 with sales in 2011 topping 27 million. These are surprisingly high numbers but the overwhelming majority of these vehicles are electric bicycles and scooters and most of these are sold in China. Electric car sales, in contrast, are multiple orders of magnitude smaller with the most popular models representing the lion’s share of the 2011 electric car market (Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi iMiev) tallying global sales at approximately 44 000 units."
economics wins again. until products make economic sense, their potential applications are (only) worthy of high school science fare stuff.
Well it's only a concept but I can hear the clamoring already. Heck, They might even be good for the environment.
http://bit.ly/PutCPU
No word yet on a Barbie edition. I'm thinking of starting a second family if they launch a Mad Max unit.
http://bit.ly/qSeFAs
There's already a Barbie edition, as well as a Dora and several other superheroes. You just have to leave the Toyota dealership and drive down the road to your local ToysRUs. Granted they are made of plastic, but they've been selling electric cars for kids for years. My daughter's 4 year old friend has a Jeep one that he drives her around his grandparent's yard in whenever they play together.
Oh. I thought I'd seen one of those. Most of my memories were of the plastic self peddle three wheelers rumbling up and down the sidewalks. No need for noise makers on those babies!
I myself had a steel Radio Flier we took turns pushing around like a bat out of hell! Mad max w/o the stickers.
But alas it looks like I was underprivileged. Should have had a nice brushless DC motor power takeoff with a couple 16VDC PBC batteries in series.
http://bit.ly/Na0M4a
I really look forward to posts by those who go. Thanks!
HardToLove
Skip the Axion name. (But it's fair game for an secret nickname!)
Articula -- congrats! I have three young daughters running around and it is the greatest thing that could have ever happened to me. At first you won't think your life has changed at all, you just operate with less sleep. Then one morning several years later you wake up dumbfounded by how much you and your life has completely changed.
Where ya at? If you're in the midwest I'd be happy to push your brewery.
I'm a proud father of two.
HardToLove
Congratulations again. You and your wife are efficient. No wonder you're interested in Axion!
A toast to you, your sweetheart and your expanded family. To a happy, healthy future!
But it should result in more government funding. They seem attracted to Black Holes.
Multi-Faceted Magnetic Phenomenon Confirmed in the Laboratory
http://bit.ly/LkXNcs
(link about NGK fire & safety response)
http://bit.ly/L6En6F
GE uses much larger modules so I wonder if they are large enough to be a problem on hybrid trains.
The GE NiMCl cells are roughly 1" x 1" x 8" and don't operate at high enough temperatures to melt the metals so they won't have the kind of Tayler instability issues the article spoke of.
I'm still thinking one best solution is efficiency coupled with things like "hunks of mass" temperature adjusted to time shift electricity as an energy source for things like heating and cooling for at least an hour (or some utility controlled decision) to peak shave.
Maybe I'm all wet. Or there's just no way for the interested parties to make money off it.
Hoping this becomes an annual tradition, and one where when Axion trips past $3.00 per, all of us can afford to take a peek at the wine list!
All of us enjoyed the food and drink greatly. I haven't been to the Wooden Angel in maybe 20 years. Hasn't lost a thing. A wonderful restaurant, with a blissful woodsy feel.
Great to do face time with some Axionistas. We covered a lot of ground...too late to get into it.
Hilarious that three of us all made reservations, putting the Wooden Angel staff into a situational flux of obfuscation. They had no idea how many were coming. 30? 7? 12? I feel like a bit of a gadabout.
JP: The menu states that the Crown Rack of Lamb has been a favorite for 40 years. Surely, it will make 41 ;-)
It seems like just yesterday I was here in New Castle for the first time, getting to know Axion, the plants and everyone who works for Axion that I met, in a way intimate that not being here can't reproduce.
I have zero expectations for tomorrow, except to be doing some gladhanding, eating some great pastries, enjoying the cocktail hour...doing some schmoozing...and asking a bunch of questions, of which I hope I gain some answers.
I do hope that you'll be attentive to the changes over the last year and give us all a thorough update like you did 116 concentrators back. It never ceases to amaze me how one simple act can set off a chain of consequences that endure for an amazing period of time. It really is amazing that the comment string on one simple Instablog and its offspring now stands at 21,830 entries.
http://bit.ly/IgjJVT
A testament to TG's negotiating skills -
"Granville found out the bank had assessed the property, for loan purposes, at $5.4 million, so the bank thought it was worth much more and Axion agreed. Enter Bob Averill once more who
was willing to bankroll the full purchase. Granville entered the bank to talk over the sale and when he came out Axion was the owner of the equipment and assets of a lead acid battery company — and for a total price of just $720,000."
23,273 is the current population in New Castle. Ten more APCs and our comments will out number the local population.
The average attendance so far this year at a Pittsburgh Pirates baseball game is 23,776 (amazing similarity!)
I once gave away nearly three times more cheesesteaks and "Pittsburgh Salads" in Pitttsburgh...in one year, my most profitable year ever, by the way.
Yes tomorrow, I will be attentive. But now we have more ears, eyes, and boots on the ground. What I am most looking forward to is opinions by others, here. Us investors.
Last year, I was all alone in a Wexford, PA hotel, able to knock out a summation. Left maybe halfway during the cocktail party. This year I have chosen to stay another night, such that us Axionistas can gather and put forward more than I did last year. Hopefully, much more.
http://prn.to/MuZkMA
HardToLove
This seems to work: http://prn.to/NT9kRV
http://prn.to/MuZkMA
HardToLove
P.S. Both tested and work now.
What's this exactly? Off grid snow cone manufacture? Just not familiar with the market sector terminology.
AVAD was a national distributor of high-end smart home and entertainment systems for the 1%. Pic and his team built AVAD to a point where Ingram Micro bought them for $120 million with an $80 million contingent earn-out.
http://bit.ly/NcFfI8
Now that all their non-compete agreements have expired, Pic is putting the AVAD band back together and planning a reunion tour.
Thanks.
Vani has the connections with the automobile industry.
Rosewater has the experience and contacts to create sales in the high end residential market.
So, we buy electrical equipment to tame the dirty current; the clean current with the signal is then fed to the TT, the CD player, the pre-amp, the Amps and the TV set and all it's electronic components.
The cost of these little boxes that clean up the electricity is between $3500-$7000 each, and that doesn't count the aftermarket power cords that can run over $2000.00 each. If this is your hobby, you will need several of these boxes and cords for all the electrical hook-ups for your equipment.
This is a large market word wide.
[quote]
Under the detailed Letter of Intent signed on June 21, 2012, Axion would appoint Rosewater Energy Group as its exclusive distribution agent for a period of three years, subject to defined sales minimums and other conditions. Specific details of the strategic relationship with Rosewater Energy will be disclosed after a definitive agreement is signed in the near future. Meanwhile, product marketing will begin immediately.
[quote]
Encouraging but I'll hold my enthusiasm pending the definitive agreement. That might be some interesting reading.
and the size, which I've been curious about.
I'll hold mine for some revenue production from PbC sales, not a PR excuse.
In a past post you stated .5 kwh per battery, so looking at 24 batteries, am I correct on that?
I'm a bit more optimistic re- rail -- and possibly auto -- but whether that bears out or not sustaining my interest in AXPW requires concrete evidence of PbC battery marketability long before a year from now.
# Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 106235, AvTrSz: 4426
Min. Pr: 0.3400, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3474
# Buys, Shares: 18 88985, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3473
# Sells, Shares: 6 17250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3483
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 5.16:1, DlyShts 16685, 15.7%
Volume, trade size and daily short sale percentage remain choppy.
Early intra-day we saw bids stepping up and for most of the morning our spread was 1/2 cent. But about 10 minutes before noon the sellers started creeping asks lower and we ended with a 1-penny spread for the day.
Status quo is maintained - still consolidating with a very slight upward bias and my daily short sales volume spike follow-on is still on the table, albeit at lower anticipated price levels.
HardToLove
Your date is wrong.
Today is the 21st.
HardToLove
PowerGenix, China City Construction Corporation, and Huainan City partner on nickel-zinc battery manufacturing; targeting micro-hybrids
http://bit.ly/LH6a3k
http://bit.ly/LiMJy8
Since China is considering regulations that would make stop-start mandatory on all ICE vehicles, 400,000 does not strike me as a terribly impressive number, particularly if getting the plant built exposes your technology to Chinese business and IP ethics.
Shouldn't take them as long to get up to speed before they throw cold water on the victim so they can make sure they fully enjoy be impaled.
"Since 2008, Ultra Green Packaging, one of Olson’s clients, has used manufacturers in China to make compostable plates and containers from wheat straw and other organic materials. By year-end, Ultra Green expects to start producing the bulk of its wares at a plant in North Dakota to cut freight costs and protect its intellectual property.
“They’re infamous over there for knocking off” products, says Phil Levin, chairman of the 10-employee company. “All anybody needs to do is find a different factory and make a mold.” "
http://bloom.bg/KXyP05
I didn't catch which MM it was, but I wonder if thy are trying to scare some longs into letting go.
HardToLove
Interesting (to me at least :-) ) where today's PR was tweeted:
http://bit.ly/M9w3Zn
BTW, Rudy Barrio @barrio10010 was one of them.
"Beleaguered natural gas producers in Western Canada are going to have wait a little longer for relief from severely depressed prices. Janine McArdle, the senior executive in charge of the Kitimat LNG project at Houston-based Apache Corp., said the facility’s planned startup will take an extra year as the company continues to look for firm contracts with buyers in Asia."
http://natpo.st/L89Vcc
Must admit I'm surprised about not being able to firm up contracts yet, but with the explosion in supply, perhaps no one, even Japan with their issues, are going to rush into signing a long term contract at anywhere near today's non-North-American prices.
http://bit.ly/KB9YlP
Eventually even the most scared population will see reality. Can't live with em and you can't live without em.
In the US we would have to pay someone to study how to best position the finger to maximize the pain.
"Ice Energy Finds Profits in Thermal Energy Storage"
http://bit.ly/KWvYEo
They freeze water at night using off-peak power and use it to provide interior cooling the next day. The equipment is cheap and reliable and the ice energy system has proven itself in thousands of commercial buildings.
The problem is they're privately held and there's no way to get a piece of the action.
http://bit.ly/Lm6FOR
or the real deal?
"Senate bill seeks to stop ‘fire sale' of Federal Helium Reserve
The dwindling U.S. government stockpile of helium has scientists, politicians, corporations and federal employees concerned about the ramifications to medicine, science and industry.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 14 May 2012 "
http://bit.ly/MCAYMN
The couple of messages I've gotten so far indicate that the focus this year is products instead of ideas and marketing instead of development. Apparently the management team, the board and the Rosewater crew are there, accessible and talking one on one with attendees.
Since I've only gotten SMS messages instead of sentences I won't try quoting verbatim.
HardToLove
HardToLove
Joe Piccarilli from Rosewater talked about the residential mini cube, aimed at very high end residences. WIll be a full time "double inverter", so it will output very high quality electricity, and therefore will have a continuous electric draw. Double inversion mean all power is converted to DC to the batteries, then inverted back to 120V AC. It will also have the ability to do non-critical load shedding, although the technical aspects of this was not disclosed. Typically this would mean shutting down the a/c and pool pump while the grid power is out, so saving the battery power for the refrigerator and lights.
The device will be exhibited at the September CEDIA show in Indianapolis. The major hold up for actual sales is UL listing, which apparently is problematic and always takes a long time. There have been no testing units with Axion employees, so there is no real world experience or testing yet. Actual delivered sales are possible by the end of December, but I think that is an optimistic guess. Obviously it cannot be sold without UL listing.
Joe talked about the high end market as houses with $100,000 of electronic control and security systems, not including the actual devices attached to the system. He declined to discuss the size of this high-end market. No pricing info was released.
In direct conversations I asked about networking, so a fleet a mini-cubes could be centrally controlled and therefore earn money through a consolidator, such as EnerNOC, IceBear or Viridity. I also asked about data communications, such as an ATT data packet device, that is a pretty cheap way to communicate over the cell network. Apparently these ideas had not been discussed.
A "mobile app" to control everything was mentioned (not in the presentation) so it could be remotely controlled by the consumer. I did not get any feeling that wifi or cell packet is going to be in the product in the near term; there was no indication of when (or how) it was going to be introduced.
I talked to Vani about the 60-75 locomotive comment he made at the ESA. He said that number was a guess at the number of over-the-road locomotives NS would acquire from Axion. This is NOT a confirmed order. I asked specifically about yard engines, and he said he had no guesstimate about them.
TG mentioned that NS has publicly said that NS intends to invest $8b in upgrading the Crescent Line to New Orleans. This would include 80 new locomotives, but not all of which would be from Axion. My guess is that these locomotives would be consists of 2 diesels with one electric, so this indicates a battery demand of about 25 locomotives for this project. I do not know if Vani's number of 50-75 conflicts or is congruent with TG's mention.
More later.
Thank you very much for your update.
Thanks for posting!
HardToLove
Crescent Corridor Expansion
Norfolk Southern is working to upgrade the Crescent Corridor, a freight rail network that runs through 13 states and connects New Orleans to New Jersey. A series of projects will lay 300 new miles of track and build or expand intermodal terminals in 11 markets. Construction has already begun on terminals in Memphis, Birmingham, Ala., and two Pennsylvania communities.
The estimated $2.5 billion expansion will enable shippers and trucking companies to move more of their goods using rail, instead of relying on trucks, which are more expensive and produce more pollution. Because of the public benefits of the cleaner air and reduced highway congestion that will result from the upgrade, the U.S. Department of Transportation has chipped in more than $136 million to support the project, with the rest of the funds coming from states and Norfolk Southern itself. The company hopes to finish the upgrade by 2030 but says the timing depends on how easily it can obtain enough public funds for the project. http://tinyurl.com/7jn...
Thanks for the notes. With respect to your statement that, "[t]he major hold up for actual sales is UL listing, which apparently is problematic and always takes a long time."
Do you know if they have started the UL process yet and how long ago that was if they did?
The subject matter there really begs for the question, Is the PowerCube UL certified? Just maybe lack of UL listing is the major hold up for actual sales in stationary applications across the board.
You raise a good point, D-inv ....
The Rosewater group appear to be the ones to watch near term and they have not been bashfully about providing information. I am looking forward to what our ace researchers can dig up. More later as my attention is needed else where after being gone most of the day...
So, unfortunately, I am not well informed on UL at all but I think you're right.
It is owned and operated by Axion Power so the unit was not marketed to anyone, only its services. ICBM but i suspect product buyers are interested in UL certifications to facilitate purchase of casualty insurance coverage.
UL certification may not be a requirement of the PJM interconnection or of the local grid operator.
http://bit.ly/MmPn4h
This is not a task I've ever been involved in. I only knew enough to get the people in the various plants I've worked in that were responsible for this task involved soon enough so they and the utility/federal agency were not surprised. I only needed to supply facilities requirements like power, pneumatic (air) requirements, water cooling and any exhaust for permitting as examples.
http://bit.ly/z8p1Bi
Note this is different than their latest "Demand Response Inverter"
http://bit.ly/KK4Afn
which is "Pending" UL certification.
Now the question is who makes the "double inverter" Rick referred to above.
I'm having bad ZBB flashbacks :-(
Note how carefully they phrased it:
ZBB Energy Corporation Received ETL Certification to UL 1741 for Its ZBB EnerSection Power & Energy Control Center
"... announced today it has received the ETL listing to UL 1741 certification from Intertek Testing Services for its 25kW grid-tie inverter module of the ZBB EnerSection™ power and energy control center. The UL 1741 certification incorporates IEEE 1547 requirements for the interconnection of distributed generation (DG) resources. This certification signifies that the inverter module of the ZBB EnerSection meets all of the product safety standards for connection to a utility power grid anywhere in the United States or other countries where UL standards are accepted."
http://bit.ly/Ln1kqH
There was some angst (among the investors) about exactly what that meant, and whether it was "good enough." I'm still not totally clear on it. And oh by the way, ZBB is still waiting on two others ... (60 and 125 kw) hopefully soon. The first one took approximately a year, and the guess what the other two should go much faster, with an estimate of 6 months. The CEO got burned guessing when the first one would be completed.
UL battery site, which I've never looked at
http://bit.ly/MnnM07
Most capacitors I see being used carry the UR symbol from UL. So I don't know.
Rick, understood that Indy is not related to ZBB, I think WT is just trying to infer a timeline from another UL listing experience ...
Truth be told, after watching the UL testing timeline at ZBB get stretched out, my heart sunk too ...
I ill leave the technical stuff to Rick and others. However, I came away very impressed with those presenting from Axion's Board and staff---- and Joe Piccarilli from Rosewater.
I asked one question related to "scientific" issues----specifically "what would a respected critic of this approach (i.e., a peer, an outside researcher) say in terms of potential non-financial problems that might derail Axion's efforts.
Vani paused for about 15 seconds (an eternity), and finally said that he could not think of any science-based issues. However, he said that from his perspective one of the major issues going forward is the difficulty in "educating" (or rather -re-educating) people in the battery industry, who seem to have a rather rigid set of questions they ask--- when he (Vani) meets with them. "They ask the wrong questions", he noted.
I asked the same question of their research director, Anders. His first remark was that he "wondered when I asked the question originally--- just how he would have answered." Then, he said he agreed with Vani's comment about education. He had no potential science-based problems.
I wasn't sure when they were done, whether I was more or less comfortable with their answers, given that my training/background suggests that there are scientific shortcomings in all approaches (but--then-- I am in the social sciences).
I cornered Anders afterwards and he said that he felt I was not satisfied with his answer. We spoke briefly---and I left with the impression that he is sincere in his answer above.
On a personal note---it was really cool to meet fellow Axionista's. You are all good guys.
Roger
Thanks for the feedback.
I wanted to just make one comment on your question and Mr. Dantam's response. First I can kind of see why he would have taken a bit of time to give an answer to your question. I'm sure you put him on the spot a little because it's probably the first time he's been asked such a question in such a form. And yet in the positions he's held it's really not outside of the tool set used to manage program risk.
I'd venture a guess that you might feel he could have gone deeper in his response as you suggested. I'd agree and yet I can see where he might feel compelled not to go any deeper in such a form. Same thoughts extend to Mr. Anders. Also, I'm sure Mr. Anders was glad to have the added time to give it some additional thought before you enjoyed each others company. :)
In the end there's nothing wrong with asking the hard questions. It gives you a better sense about how the company is really doing.
Just my thoughts.
Thanks for your thoughts and impressions. I wonder what the standard set of "wrong questions" are ... It seems that this re-education is probably what makes the sales cycle take so long ...
He actually cited the "wrong questions" asked of him--& they seem to be those that just don't deal with the issues Axion is attempting to solve. Best to have someone else who was present at the meeting--- & more attuned to "battery speak" than I am---spell out the specifics of his answer.
Roger
Thanks for feedback.
"...one of the major issues going forward is the difficulty in "educating" (or rather -re-educating) people in the battery industry, who seem to have a rather rigid set of questions they ask--- when he (Vani) meets with them. "They ask the wrong questions", he noted. "
Anyone care to expound?
Wrong audience in the room?
Older/staid thinking decision makers?
Need that key first sale per segment?
In my experience you need to cultivate key clients willing to jump in ...early adopters...but be it rail, auto, grid...the impetus should already be there.
Second link down. Out June 1 2012. Response July 27 2012
http://bit.ly/My58Vx
Sorry haven't reviewed it yet. Or maybe I have! :)
Appendix A - maximum selling prices @ 100,000 units/year: $220 under hood, $180 not under hood.
Lots of technical specs, including
Maximum system weight: 10 Kg
Maximum system volume: 7L
Aside from the weight thing, the PbC is looking pretty good.
Last night when I talked with Mayascribe, he told me that he asked the maximum charge current question we were speculating about the other day. The response he got, and I'm not sure from who, was that the PbC can accept charging currents of up to 400 Amps, but nobody is designing systems that need that much charge acceptance. NS apparently needed something in the 200 Amp range to cover all their regen loads.
The HT 30 has a 70 Ah rating with a one hour energy capacity of 500 wh. So unless I'm mistaken, we're sitting on a lead-acid battery that can handle a 10C charging current as compared to a C/10 charging current for every other lead-acid device. Two full orders of magnitude is a big deal in my book.
One things for sure. They aren't sitting still with AGM.
I've sat in a ton of automotive work shops and they all start out with stretch goals that make you weak in the knees. Kind of like the young single mans fantasy vacation (censored).
For comparison purposes, can you point out a continuum of what applications would require different Amps from a 1 to a 400 level in a PbC battery?
With respect to our current testing programs -
70 amp level HT-30 - in powercube?
100 amp level - S/S
200 amp level - NS 999
Are there any others above or below this level that I can't think of?
Lower-Energy Requirements for Power-Assist HEV Energy Storage Systems—Analysis and Rationale
http://1.usa.gov/O1VeyX
# Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 18600, Vol 105850, AvTrSz: 3920
Min. Pr: 0.3321, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3467
# Buys, Shares: 26 103850, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3470
# Sells, Shares: 1 2000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3321
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 51.93:1, DlyShts 32150, 30.4%
All the following posted *before* reading any of the comments from the folks that attended the AGM, except for Rick's, so keep that in mind.
Since it's not obvious without thought, I wanted to point out that the low of the day (embodied in the "sells" readings) was a single trade at 12:10:04. Trades before that (1 - 13) were all >= $0.3489 and trades after (15 - 27) were >= $0.3449. What prompted someone to let that one go like that is beyond my ken (and Barbie too! :-).
Without that one trade, the low for the day would be $0.34 - another tight-spread one-penny day.
The combination of average trade size, buy:sell ratio (unsustainable?) and VWAP suggests two things to me: 1) the sellers at the $0.35 level are adamant about getting their price, or *very* near it, and 2) most buyers are retail that see the price as attractive or at least low downside risk.
I'm reading this as a growing sentiment in the market, likely due to the recent articles and these concentrators, that AXPW is on the right path for *investors*, not just short-term traders, who would likely be dealing bigger blocks to reap worthwhile short-term gains.
This leads me to say that if the "flippers'" backs are broken, or they get smarter about maximizing their profits, there's a good chance of a move upwards commencing.
Along those lines, I don't (yet?) see any evidence in the price, volume or trade sizes, and certainly not in the buy:sell ratio, of an inrush of the 2M shares from the bankruptcy trustee being available.
Maybe my fond hope that a back-channel deal got done has been fulfilled.
Volume is remaining choppy but trending lower. I believe this is causing some instability in the daily short sales ratios as it is also quite choppy and tending lower. I mention these only because the traditional TA indicators suggest a move *ought* to be coming and the instability of these items seems to support that. But ...
Since I haven't mentioned it for a long while, I should remind that even my "traditional TA" stuff has experimental settings - shorter than normal periods, reduced by about 1/3.
While most of the normal oscillators are still decidedly neutral (an oxymoron for sure), the stochastic entered oversold 6/19 and continues up ATM. This, while volume is trending down, would normally suggest we've topped out (supported by the Williams %R being near the extreme top), although it's not uncommon for this condition to remain for some time with continued price appreciation. But over the last year (maybe not a fair comparison, all things considered) this has not been the case for AXPW. *Usually* we get a quick turn down ... *until* recently. In our latest case, circa 4/3, we just went flat for a month.
Looking at other traditional TA indicators, and my experimental stuff, I believe the latter scenario is most likely *if* we don't "bust a move" up.
MFI has been trending up since 6/13 and has now gone slightly above neutral to 59.64. This indicator is considered to be one of the few leading oscillators and I really hope it's telling the truth here.
The momentum oscillator has shifted from bear (~.83) on 5/23 to bull, now at 1.13.
The rest of the oscillators remain sort of neutral, in line with the uncertainty suggested by my experimental chart factors.
My feeling remains unchanged - we seem to be consolidating at this range as we clean out the "flippers" at $0.35 and there appears to be both little downside risk and a very slight bias towards the upside.
A short-term triangle supports the consolidation scenario and wants us to believe a break is coming. But it's totally ignorant, I think, and I believe we break the apex of that and just continue mostly sideways for now.
Remember - I'm experimental and learning!
hardToLove
The flooded line was also running at a pretty good clip. What I found interesting was the many different case sizes. For some reason I got it in my head that they were building just one flooded battery type but that is not the case. They build a wide variety of flooded batteries which I assume to mean they can do the same with AGM and PbC...
More later if something comes to me...
Thanks for your observations.
JP. The flooded and AGM lines each ended within close proximity at their own testing bench. I did not see a second line and don't remember seeing two flooded lines coming together prior to the test bench. However, our tour did not come close to covering the factory floor. Also, I was more focused on the PbC line and less interested n the flooded line <smile>...
What you have supplied works fine. Thanks for the info. gathering. We're lucky to have you guys gathering data and sharing it!
http://seekingalpha.co...
Your statement disabuses me of that thought and also gives me hope that as time passes I may actually have something reliable and useful out of all this.
One big impediment is that FINRA informs me that the OTC markets will *not* publish the monthly short sales transaction tapes as is done for the major exchanges. That data would have provided potentially revealing insight into what produced the EOD short sales summaries.
I've not given up - I *may* be able to get some insight via proxy - examining some of the monthlies that are published and overlaying what I glean on AXPW.
That'll take a long time I think, based on my experience so far.
Anyway, thanks again for the thoughts!
HardToLove
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