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  • Axion Power Concentrator 117: June 20, 2012: RAILWAY AGE | How Norfolk Southern Is "Getting The Lead Out" 165 comments
    Jun 20, 2012 9:48 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Shareholders' Conference: June 21, 2012

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    RAILWAY AGE | How Norfolk Southern is "getting the lead out" By William C. Vantllono, June 2012

    NS-999, Norfolk Southern's experimental 100% electric (all-battery) switcher, is undergoing an extensive rebuild with a new type of battery that, according to supplier Axion Power International, "is ideally suited for both electric and hybrid locomotive applications due to its high charge acceptance, fast charge and discharge capabilities - important in regenerative braking - and an inherent ability to equalize voltage when utilized in large string configurations."

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated June 17th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Concentrator Comments: 20,000 comments surpassed on June 1st!

    (updated June 17th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (165)
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  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Some real telling statements from the article IINDelco posted:

     

    "While exact battery prices for the Volt and the Leaf are not known, there are estimates of $US 10,000 for the 16 kWh Volt battery (625 $/kWh) and $US 15,600 for the 24 kWh LEAF battery (~650 $/kWh). Thus these two major programs should add to an initial annual Li-ion turnover of around $US 1 billion. However, both companies are seriously behind schedule."

     

    "Obama's program to put 1 million plug-in electric vehicles on the road by 2015. From an optimistic base of 50,000 plug-ins circulating in 2011, this would correspond to a 20-fold increase in 4 years only. According to China's five-year draft plan, the nation has the ambition of building up an annual 1 million production capacity of 'new energy vehicles' (such as HEVs, PHEVs and pure EVs) and then to increase annual production capacity to 5 million NEVs by 2020. China has committed about $15 billion for vehicle electrification over the next ten years. Japan's METI wants 50% of all new cars in 2020 to be hybrids or plug-ins. Germany announced a plan for 1 million electric cars on their roads by 2020.
    All these programs are politically driven and it is unlikely that all the ambitious goals can be met, simply because of cost/benefit economics. Batteries are just too expensive compared to fossil fuels and the situation will not change rapidly. It is unlikely that the US DOE goal of lowering complete vehicle-class Li-ion batteries from today's >600 $/kWh to the targeted 250 $/kWh can be achieved by 2015."

     

    That pretty much says it all.
    20 Jun 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    I'll go one further...

     

    I believe that the costs for raw materials is going to go the opposite direction, ie, increase by about 30-40% over the 4 year period. This will apply to all companies, including China. Labor costs will probably go up somewhat, since these are mature, automated manufacturing processes already, so figure at least 20% increases there. Finally the costs of operating the various corporate structures will go up, particularly since most of them were created as corporate welfare basket cases rather than vibrant, independent companies.

     

    In the West the AONE example will be the norm. In China it will be less chaotic by far, but also likely that the Chinese will make tactical changes to their plans with abrupt finality.

     

    At the end of the day government will have wasted billions once again attempting to legislate innovation, but I suspect the Chinese will have wasted much less than their counterparts in the West. They have a long and hugely successful history of buying up Western mistakes of this kind for pennies on the dollar.
    20 Jun 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Everybody knows that lithium is pretty plentiful as raw materials go, but that hasn't stopped electronic devices like the iPad from driving a 300% price gain over the last few years. This story from Bloomberg is actually pretty good, even if it doesn't touch on the real resource constraints like rare earths, cobalt and copper.

     

    http://bloom.bg/Mr2TmS
    20 Jun 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't help on the copper concern but some know Li is a problem. Toyota is one of them. Only makes sense. With the electronics industry with it's margins competing with the automotive industry and it's margins you know who's going to win. But at a price.

     

    http://bloom.bg/NiYJhM
    20 Jun 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    Two points to add to LabTech and tripleblack:

     

    1) Only a small percentage of lithium compounds that are mined are battery grade lithium carbonate. Most are used for various industrial purposes. In all the articles I read, it is stated that a mining company mines "X" thousand tons per year or has "Y" million tons in reserve. The articles never say how much is battery grade ore and how much is industrial grade.

     

    2) The Bloomberg article John cites below states that an average mobile phone has 1.7 grams of lithium carbonate equivalent and an average battery electric car has about 19.2 kg of lithium compounds. The following is very sophisticated mathematics so you will have to follow closely. Dividing 19,200 grams by 1.7 grams means one average BEV needs as much battery grade lithium as 11, 294 mobile phones. Putting one million new BEV's on the road worldwide will be the equivalent of adding 11.3 billion new mobile phones, or a lesser number of iPhones or laptops or whatever. The point is there is not that much battery grade lithium in the world. Even if there were, this level of demand would push the price of lithium to that of gold or platinum.
    20 Jun 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Osterix: very good comment and insightful too.

     

    It's the sort of thing that should be widely understood.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    It's not so much a question of whether a natural resource is battery grade, because none of them are and all of them can be. The question is the amount of post-production processing required to get from a 95% purity at the mine to the 99.99999% purity that's required for batteries.

     

    If you take almost any lithium-ion battery, the commodity value of the materials is somewhere between $1 and $5 per pound. Despite the low raw materials cost, the finished product costs somewhere between $30 and $50 a pound. That entire spread is absorbed in purifying the raw materials, making close tolerance components and producing a finished product.
    20 Jun 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    There's also the question of where that post-production processing is done. If it's largely done in China, then again they have economic blackmail potential.

     

    Talison http://bit.ly/LDTDsQ and some of their non-China Asian customers have taken note:
    http://bloom.bg/LkIyQH

     

    Talison has significant South American reserves which they've put on a slower (not stopped) road to development as they focus their financial resources on first the recent doubling of their production in Australia, and second (with a high degree of certainly) the plant mentioned in the above link.

     

    Australia: http://bit.ly/LDTDsS

     

    Proposed Australia conversion plant: http://bit.ly/LkIAYQ

     

    South America (Salares 7): http://bit.ly/LkIAYS
    20 Jun 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how many new housing projects I've seen in Portugal where as soon as the residential wiring goes in - with no houses built - all the copper wire is stripped out overnight.
    20 Jun 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Personally I think the US government should stop pussy-footing around about this whole 1 million EV vehicles on the road by 2015 crap and get serious. Instead of wasting their time offering $7500 tax breaks for all EV's they should just buy them. Think about it. They've got three years. I figure it will cost about $45 billion to buy a million EV's (I'm including HEVs in the list and not including any EV that costs more than $45K). That comes out to about $15 billion/year for the next three years (they can cut the money out of nonessential programs...like food stamps or unemployment benefits). That way none of the battery companies or auto companies that they've been subsidizing for the last four years will go bankrupt and they would finally have met their goal. Of course there will be few problems. First, I don't know if the car manufactures who make HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs can actually build a million of them in three years. And I don't know if the battery companies can make enough Li-ion or other hybrid batteries to meet the demand...but I'm sure they've thought of that. Second, they have to find one million people willing to take the cars for free. And then there's the little problem of all the PHEVs and BEVs needing chargers in their homes, but heck, if they are getting a free car you would think they would be willing to pay the money for the charger...right? Of course they'll have to figure out how to spread them out so they don't have too many in one city or neighborhood that would cause the local grid to fail. But I'm sure they've figured all that out before they set the goal...right?
    20 Jun 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Hunting for more Obama bucks.

     

    Fuel-Cell Frenzy Looks to Convert Obama Favoring Plug-Ins

     

    http://bloom.bg/Mg5j5G
    20 Jun 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    At the current cost/Watt for fuel cells, it's not even remotely economical. Building out a hydrogen motor fuel infrastructure is an astoundingly expensive project.

     

    It's a politically driven non-starter.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Here are 2 related questions I hope will be addressed in the annual meeting prepared remarks, and if not, I would be very appreciative if someone could ask:

     

    1) Could you update us on recent and expected FERC regulatory decisions and timelines and whether you have seen customer PowerCube purchasing decisions on when to sign contracts affected?

     

    2) While the market for PowerCube like devices is huge, there is significant competition developing from both large well capitalized system integrators, and also public and private inverter companies, who provide the most expensive part of such systems and as such affords those companies, in addition to their power electronics expertise, power in setting the lowest system prices. While I understand the need to offer these systems today, how long do you see us trying to help create that market, and do you see us becoming a pure component supplier to the market once our capabilities are demonstrated and a demand for PbC based systems is created?

     

    Rephrasing suggestions to increase useful information are of course encouraged.
    20 Jun 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    REVISITING THE ITF STORY.

     

    Yesterday Iindelco posted a link to a Green Car Congress headline, "ITF analysis finds that societal costs for electric cars and vans range from €7K to €12K more than fossil-fueled equivalents."

     

    I followed the links back to the actual study from the ITF, which is an operating unit of the OECD in Paris, and was amazed by the detailed analysis that effectively trashed EVs even for France's all nuclear grid. Given the source, the piece is pretty scathing. It truly is worth a skim if not a detailed study.

     

    http://bit.ly/L1TNJg

     

    Once again, Iindelco has won my Gold Star Researcher of the Week Award. Way to go man.

     

    The first clue that I was going to love the report was the author's use of the Hype Cycle graph on the second page of the discussion.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow – Sorry Goldman, Even The OECD Says EVs Aren't Ready For Prime Time
    20 Jun 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John and Iindelco. It is a very interesting read.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for tracking the found crumb back to the source. You've turned a nibble into a feast! That's always a good thing.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LCjpCu
    20 Jun 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Hmm...John, haven't I heard an argument "somewhere" before suggesting that EVs are practical, but with two wheels not four?

     

    "Recent estimates put the global electric vehicle fleet at over 120 million in 2010 with sales in 2011 topping 27 million. These are surprisingly high numbers but the overwhelming majority of these vehicles are electric bicycles and scooters and most of these are sold in China. Electric car sales, in contrast, are multiple orders of magnitude smaller with the most popular models representing the lion’s share of the 2011 electric car market (Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi iMiev) tallying global sales at approximately 44 000 units."
    20 Jun 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    The entire report sounds like it was written by me and my better informed commenters. The surprising thing is that it was written from the Parisian perspective of $8 gasoline and an all nuclear grid.
    20 Jun 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    economics wins again. until products make economic sense, their potential applications are (only) worthy of high school science fare stuff.
    20 Jun 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to it. It will be a nice little kick in the pants for some (should they decide to have an open mind about it).
    20 Jun 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps we should kick elsewhere ... their head seems to already be malfunctioning :-)
    20 Jun 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Not to mention that the French Gov't owns about 15% of Renault which has cross ownership with Nissan so there is interest in the success of higher level EV financial success as well.
    20 Jun 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    For those who are not familiar with the OECD it's important to understand that they're nothing like the Heritage Foundation. Imagine a green-socialist coalition in a Pan-European Parliament and you're almost there, if you can add in the jaw strength of a Rottweiler.
    20 Jun 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    For the EVangelists who want to save the planet long term. Raise em well.

     

    Well it's only a concept but I can hear the clamoring already. Heck, They might even be good for the environment.

     

    http://bit.ly/PutCPU

     

    No word yet on a Barbie edition. I'm thinking of starting a second family if they launch a Mad Max unit.
    20 Jun 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    As I recall, Ford tried that when we were young.

     

    http://bit.ly/qSeFAs
    20 Jun 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Would fit nicely on the upper deck of our step deck. But I need something with a fuel tank. Wait, it uses LA which means I could connect it to our existing battery array for charging and use it as added capacity when I am not driving it. What's the voltage? maybe we could PbC it! I like it!
    20 Jun 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    There's already a Barbie edition, as well as a Dora and several other superheroes. You just have to leave the Toyota dealership and drive down the road to your local ToysRUs. Granted they are made of plastic, but they've been selling electric cars for kids for years. My daughter's 4 year old friend has a Jeep one that he drives her around his grandparent's yard in whenever they play together.
    20 Jun 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Labtech,

     

    Oh. I thought I'd seen one of those. Most of my memories were of the plastic self peddle three wheelers rumbling up and down the sidewalks. No need for noise makers on those babies!

     

    I myself had a steel Radio Flier we took turns pushing around like a bat out of hell! Mad max w/o the stickers.

     

    But alas it looks like I was underprivileged. Should have had a nice brushless DC motor power takeoff with a couple 16VDC PBC batteries in series.
    20 Jun 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    I think I recall some antique restoration show where they were restoring one of those. Had to be an Edsel hugh.
    20 Jun 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    "Honda to begin reuse of rare earth metals extracted from used NiMH batteries before year end; targeting extraction from motors and Li-ion batteries as well"

     

    http://bit.ly/Na0M4a
    20 Jun 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Well, I was hoping to be a last minute addition to tomorrow's Shareholder Mtg., but my schedule just won't allow it. I'm moving next week, with too many thing to do by then.

     

    I really look forward to posts by those who go. Thanks!
    20 Jun 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    My wife is due to have our first baby Friday - or else I'd be going as well. Oh well Axion shareholders will have to report the 2nd best news of the weekend to me :)
    20 Jun 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on the BB! (as one cannonball said to the other).

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to you both...
    20 Jun 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Is Axion definitely out of the running for a baby name? :-)
    20 Jun 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    I had a childhood friend named "Axelrod". We called him Axie for short.
    20 Jun 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    If Axion triples in the next 2 days I'll put it back in the running!
    20 Jun 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Articula, Congratulations to you and your sweetheart. Lot's of nice times ahead. It's one of those great and most wonderful times in life.

     

    Skip the Axion name. (But it's fair game for an secret nickname!)
    20 Jun 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations. There is nothing like being a parent. I wouldn't trade it for anything. I also was planning on going to the conference, but I have been accepted into a program in New York whereby they pay me to work on getting my business up and running so I can concentrate on that and nothing else. As part of the program I have to attend courses to instruct me on things like writing a business plan, obtaining financing and taxation, etc. One of the courses is scheduled tomorrow. My business is a micro-brewery so I am in essence getting paid to brew beer. Wonderful country, America,
    20 Jun 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    Well done, Birdman! America is an amazing country when anyone can just pick up and start making brew for a living -- not without sacrifice and hard work, but the opportunities are always there in this country. There was a special on Discovery not too long ago about the brewmaster of Dogfish Head. Pretty much just a guy who wanted to brew beer. Pretty good stuff with a few quite interesting concoctions -- I believe one recipe involves human spit.

     

    Articula -- congrats! I have three young daughters running around and it is the greatest thing that could have ever happened to me. At first you won't think your life has changed at all, you just operate with less sleep. Then one morning several years later you wake up dumbfounded by how much you and your life has completely changed.
    20 Jun 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Bird - I love a good micro-brew. (3 Floyd's is my favorite)

     

    Where ya at? If you're in the midwest I'd be happy to push your brewery.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on your new life.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Early Congratulations!

     

    I'm a proud father of two.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Congrats! Double the fun! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    D Lane.

     

    Congratulations again. You and your wife are efficient. No wonder you're interested in Axion!

     

    A toast to you, your sweetheart and your expanded family. To a happy, healthy future!
    21 Jun 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, sir!
    21 Jun 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Why scaling up liquid metal batteries will be difficult.

     

    But it should result in more government funding. They seem attracted to Black Holes.

     

    Multi-Faceted Magnetic Phenomenon Confirmed in the Laboratory

     

    http://bit.ly/LkXNcs
    20 Jun 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Well pooh. I had been rooting for the liquid metal guys. Now it looks like they may have bigger problems that anybody's considered.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >JP .... I've always wondered why NGK designed their units in small tubular cells. Maybe this might Tayler instability be why.

     

    (link about NGK fire & safety response)
    http://bit.ly/L6En6F

     

    GE uses much larger modules so I wonder if they are large enough to be a problem on hybrid trains.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the NGK link.

     

    The GE NiMCl cells are roughly 1" x 1" x 8" and don't operate at high enough temperatures to melt the metals so they won't have the kind of Tayler instability issues the article spoke of.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Guys, I've not followed the tech. that closely but I've had my fingers crossed that this might be a great large scale energy solution along with a few others..

     

    I'm still thinking one best solution is efficiency coupled with things like "hunks of mass" temperature adjusted to time shift electricity as an energy source for things like heating and cooling for at least an hour (or some utility controlled decision) to peak shave.

     

    Maybe I'm all wet. Or there's just no way for the interested parties to make money off it.
    21 Jun 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9654) | Send Message
     
    Seven people went out to the Wooden Angel tonight. 5 Axionistas and 2 lurkers. I love that ratio!

     

    Hoping this becomes an annual tradition, and one where when Axion trips past $3.00 per, all of us can afford to take a peek at the wine list!

     

    All of us enjoyed the food and drink greatly. I haven't been to the Wooden Angel in maybe 20 years. Hasn't lost a thing. A wonderful restaurant, with a blissful woodsy feel.

     

    Great to do face time with some Axionistas. We covered a lot of ground...too late to get into it.

     

    Hilarious that three of us all made reservations, putting the Wooden Angel staff into a situational flux of obfuscation. They had no idea how many were coming. 30? 7? 12? I feel like a bit of a gadabout.

     

    JP: The menu states that the Crown Rack of Lamb has been a favorite for 40 years. Surely, it will make 41 ;-)
    21 Jun 2012, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    I'm looking forward to it and really sorry that it wasn't on my menu for this year.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9654) | Send Message
     
    You have five fat cats to take care of while your better half is in NYC luring fat cats!

     

    It seems like just yesterday I was here in New Castle for the first time, getting to know Axion, the plants and everyone who works for Axion that I met, in a way intimate that not being here can't reproduce.

     

    I have zero expectations for tomorrow, except to be doing some gladhanding, eating some great pastries, enjoying the cocktail hour...doing some schmoozing...and asking a bunch of questions, of which I hope I gain some answers.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    I expect this year's meeting to be better than last year's because these things always get better with time, but I think the most important thing you're likely to hear is a discussion of vision going forward.

     

    I do hope that you'll be attentive to the changes over the last year and give us all a thorough update like you did 116 concentrators back. It never ceases to amaze me how one simple act can set off a chain of consequences that endure for an amazing period of time. It really is amazing that the comment string on one simple Instablog and its offspring now stands at 21,830 entries.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    For those that have not seen this article, its a good refresher of the Axion story and the people involved.

     

    http://bit.ly/IgjJVT

     

    A testament to TG's negotiating skills -

     

    "Granville found out the bank had assessed the property, for loan purposes, at $5.4 million, so the bank thought it was worth much more and Axion agreed. Enter Bob Averill once more who
    was willing to bankroll the full purchase. Granville entered the bank to talk over the sale and when he came out Axion was the owner of the equipment and assets of a lead acid battery company — and for a total price of just $720,000."
    21 Jun 2012, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    I hope TG is negotiating us an up round for the 2013 financing. I'd think that we can spare 20M more shares if that will get us 10M+ needed dollars to support Axion through the critical 2014 time frame when presumably 2015 model year cars will be shipping with PbC (or not). I love RR and storage too but OEM car deals will really move the needle on pps (imo). We need to become a story stock and have our turn at being fair to overvalued for a while. This market cap below book stuff is no fun for long term Axionistas who bought around a buck. I'd think our plant and RnD are worth our current valuation. =)
    21 Jun 2012, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9654) | Send Message
     
    Some fun facts:

     

    23,273 is the current population in New Castle. Ten more APCs and our comments will out number the local population.

     

    The average attendance so far this year at a Pittsburgh Pirates baseball game is 23,776 (amazing similarity!)

     

    I once gave away nearly three times more cheesesteaks and "Pittsburgh Salads" in Pitttsburgh...in one year, my most profitable year ever, by the way.

     

    Yes tomorrow, I will be attentive. But now we have more ears, eyes, and boots on the ground. What I am most looking forward to is opinions by others, here. Us investors.

     

    Last year, I was all alone in a Wexford, PA hotel, able to knock out a summation. Left maybe halfway during the cocktail party. This year I have chosen to stay another night, such that us Axionistas can gather and put forward more than I did last year. Hopefully, much more.
    21 Jun 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    To all ye brothers who made the time, and made the trek thither, thanks sincerely. We on the west coast are all but parched for news, and will be hanging on your every word. Perhaps next year more of us can jet in and make for a truly voluminous confabulation... ;)
    21 Jun 2012, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    I second the thoughts of 481. Thanks to all attendees.
    21 Jun 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): "Axion Power, Rosewater Energy Group Developing A Power Quality And Energy Storage Cube For The Residential Market"

     

    http://prn.to/MuZkMA

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    It sounds like the Axionista Road Team is going to get a chance to see the residential unit up close and personal today.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    HTL, the link doesn't seem to work

     

    This seems to work: http://prn.to/NT9kRV
    21 Jun 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Rick, updated the link in the orig, but here it is again JIC.

     

    http://prn.to/MuZkMA

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Both tested and work now.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    "We believe this technology has tremendous value for entertainment technologies,....."

     

    What's this exactly? Off grid snow cone manufacture? Just not familiar with the market sector terminology.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Pic's last company was originally known as the Association of Value Added Distributors, which was subsequently shortened to AVAD.

     

    AVAD was a national distributor of high-end smart home and entertainment systems for the 1%. Pic and his team built AVAD to a point where Ingram Micro bought them for $120 million with an $80 million contingent earn-out.

     

    http://bit.ly/NcFfI8

     

    Now that all their non-compete agreements have expired, Pic is putting the AVAD band back together and planning a reunion tour.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    OK, That helps.

     

    Thanks.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    It's looking more and more like a world class technology is getting ready to be launched by a world class sales force.

     

    Vani has the connections with the automobile industry.

     

    Rosewater has the experience and contacts to create sales in the high end residential market.
    21 Jun 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    A big problem in high end stereo and video is poor quality electricity; remember those teeninsy audio and video signals are riding on the house current.

     

    So, we buy electrical equipment to tame the dirty current; the clean current with the signal is then fed to the TT, the CD player, the pre-amp, the Amps and the TV set and all it's electronic components.

     

    The cost of these little boxes that clean up the electricity is between $3500-$7000 each, and that doesn't count the aftermarket power cords that can run over $2000.00 each. If this is your hobby, you will need several of these boxes and cords for all the electrical hook-ups for your equipment.

     

    This is a large market word wide.
    21 Jun 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    But will a cube do all that the existing high end media power conditioning equipment does, i.e. render these components redundant, or is the mini-cube an add on with some additional advantages?
    21 Jun 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    A cube, especially with double inverters would make other back boxes redundant, IMHO. This would be a major shift.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ...
    [quote]
    Under the detailed Letter of Intent signed on June 21, 2012, Axion would appoint Rosewater Energy Group as its exclusive distribution agent for a period of three years, subject to defined sales minimums and other conditions. Specific details of the strategic relationship with Rosewater Energy will be disclosed after a definitive agreement is signed in the near future. Meanwhile, product marketing will begin immediately.
    [quote]

     

    Encouraging but I'll hold my enthusiasm pending the definitive agreement. That might be some interesting reading.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    "10KW/12KWH"
    and the size, which I've been curious about.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    DR > "Encouraging but I'll hold my enthusiasm pending the definitive agreement. "

     

    I'll hold mine for some revenue production from PbC sales, not a PR excuse.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    size in inches 62x39x84h - from today's presentation
    21 Jun 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again Rick.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    In a past post you stated .5 kwh per battery, so looking at 24 batteries, am I correct on that?
    21 Jun 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Agreed D-inv. A fluff piece of a release. Let's hope our magnificent 7+ attendees can ask the tough questions and separate the fluff from the er non-fluff. As potential revenues from rail and auto are at least another 12-24 months out, these cubes can help to fill the vacuum. I really hope they do.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    anthlj > "As potential revenues from rail and auto are at least another 12-24 months out, these cubes can help to fill the vacuum. I really hope they do."

     

    I'm a bit more optimistic re- rail -- and possibly auto -- but whether that bears out or not sustaining my interest in AXPW requires concrete evidence of PbC battery marketability long before a year from now.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... It's OK to be "a bit more optimistic re- rail -- and possibly auto -- but" don't be. From this date, I think those time lines are correct.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    That would be my guess, but that number was not mentioned.
    21 Jun 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 6/21/2012 EOD
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 106235, AvTrSz: 4426
    Min. Pr: 0.3400, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3474
    # Buys, Shares: 18 88985, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3473
    # Sells, Shares: 6 17250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3483
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 5.16:1, DlyShts 16685, 15.7%

     

    Volume, trade size and daily short sale percentage remain choppy.

     

    Early intra-day we saw bids stepping up and for most of the morning our spread was 1/2 cent. But about 10 minutes before noon the sellers started creeping asks lower and we ended with a 1-penny spread for the day.

     

    Status quo is maintained - still consolidating with a very slight upward bias and my daily short sales volume spike follow-on is still on the table, albeit at lower anticipated price levels.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Your date is wrong.

     

    Today is the 21st.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Yep! That's what my watch said! S/B 6/20!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    PowerGenix expands it's relationship in China.

     

    PowerGenix, China City Construction Corporation, and Huainan City partner on nickel-zinc battery manufacturing; targeting micro-hybrids

     

    http://bit.ly/LH6a3k
    21 Jun 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... And so goes another company giving away the store. I'll give PowerGenix 3 years before the dust bin of history bids them adieu.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    "By the end of 2012, the joint venture will have capacity to produce 400,000 auto batteries per year."

     

    http://bit.ly/LiMJy8

     

    Since China is considering regulations that would make stop-start mandatory on all ICE vehicles, 400,000 does not strike me as a terribly impressive number, particularly if getting the plant built exposes your technology to Chinese business and IP ethics.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    DRich, You'd think they'd learn. Since they've been building their consumer products cells in China for some time it might come even quicker.

     

    Shouldn't take them as long to get up to speed before they throw cold water on the victim so they can make sure they fully enjoy be impaled.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Made in China Not Worth Hassle for Small Firms Returning to U.S.

     

    "Since 2008, Ultra Green Packaging, one of Olson’s clients, has used manufacturers in China to make compostable plates and containers from wheat straw and other organic materials. By year-end, Ultra Green expects to start producing the bulk of its wares at a plant in North Dakota to cut freight costs and protect its intellectual property.

     

    “They’re infamous over there for knocking off” products, says Phil Levin, chairman of the 10-employee company. “All anybody needs to do is find a different factory and make a mold.” "

     

    http://bloom.bg/KXyP05
    21 Jun 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (419) | Send Message
     
    All of these joint ventures in China are just mechanisms for the Chinese to pirate technology from foreigners. Anyone who JV's in China is naive, desperate, mentally retarded or suicidal.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Somebody playing games? 10:43:00 ask $0.3495 jumped to 105K and 8 seconds later dropped to 5K.

     

    I didn't catch which MM it was, but I wonder if thy are trying to scare some longs into letting go.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it's the BK shares finally.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    We'll know we've made the big time when there's live tweeting from the Annual Meeting. Will take a little longer for CNBC :-)

     

    Interesting (to me at least :-) ) where today's PR was tweeted:

     

    http://bit.ly/M9w3Zn

     

    BTW, Rudy Barrio @barrio10010 was one of them.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Interesting re-tweets there. Looks like there are plenty of folks who could be classified as "lurkers"
    21 Jun 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    OT (except for even the big boys, and even solely in Canada, get delayed and create angst for their shareholders)

     

    "Beleaguered natural gas producers in Western Canada are going to have wait a little longer for relief from severely depressed prices. Janine McArdle, the senior executive in charge of the Kitimat LNG project at Houston-based Apache Corp., said the facility’s planned startup will take an extra year as the company continues to look for firm contracts with buyers in Asia."

     

    http://natpo.st/L89Vcc

     

    Must admit I'm surprised about not being able to firm up contracts yet, but with the explosion in supply, perhaps no one, even Japan with their issues, are going to rush into signing a long term contract at anywhere near today's non-North-American prices.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Could be that when the Japanese went begging to Russia for quick and large supplies after they shut down their nukes, Putin made em sign a contract for a period of time. Now with a trickle of their nuclear capacity coming back on line they probably have enough.

     

    http://bit.ly/KB9YlP

     

    Eventually even the most scared population will see reality. Can't live with em and you can't live without em.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    That's why I was very impressed with the Swiss plan to shut those nasty nuclear reactors down by the middle of the next decade. The Swiss are very good about watching and learning from the mistakes of others.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    You have to respect a culture that witnesses someone slamming their finger in the car door, looks at the persons face and comes to the conclusion 'Don't do that".

     

    In the US we would have to pay someone to study how to best position the finger to maximize the pain.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Need to understand this better. I've been thinking about using time shifted thermal energy for storage but just haven't added anything to the grey matter to see if it makes sense based on todays tech.

     

    "Ice Energy Finds Profits in Thermal Energy Storage"

     

    http://bit.ly/KWvYEo
    21 Jun 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Ice energy works wonderfully. I spent some time with them at Storage Week 2009 and the system couldn't be simpler.

     

    They freeze water at night using off-peak power and use it to provide interior cooling the next day. The equipment is cheap and reliable and the ice energy system has proven itself in thousands of commercial buildings.

     

    The problem is they're privately held and there's no way to get a piece of the action.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Hot air,

     

    http://bit.ly/Lm6FOR

     

    or the real deal?

     

    "Senate bill seeks to stop ‘fire sale' of Federal Helium Reserve
    The dwindling U.S. government stockpile of helium has scientists, politicians, corporations and federal employees concerned about the ramifications to medicine, science and industry.
    Author: Dorothy Kosich
    Posted: Monday , 14 May 2012 "

     

    http://bit.ly/MCAYMN
    21 Jun 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    FIRST SECOND HAND MEETING REPORT

     

    The couple of messages I've gotten so far indicate that the focus this year is products instead of ideas and marketing instead of development. Apparently the management team, the board and the Rosewater crew are there, accessible and talking one on one with attendees.

     

    Since I've only gotten SMS messages instead of sentences I won't try quoting verbatim.
    21 Jun 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Great to hear!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): MM setting up for a higher price range (he hopes?) tomorrow. 100 share trade at $0.3479 - near the high for the day ($0.35) - at 15:54:05.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    A few updates from the meeting:

     

    Joe Piccarilli from Rosewater talked about the residential mini cube, aimed at very high end residences. WIll be a full time "double inverter", so it will output very high quality electricity, and therefore will have a continuous electric draw. Double inversion mean all power is converted to DC to the batteries, then inverted back to 120V AC. It will also have the ability to do non-critical load shedding, although the technical aspects of this was not disclosed. Typically this would mean shutting down the a/c and pool pump while the grid power is out, so saving the battery power for the refrigerator and lights.

     

    The device will be exhibited at the September CEDIA show in Indianapolis. The major hold up for actual sales is UL listing, which apparently is problematic and always takes a long time. There have been no testing units with Axion employees, so there is no real world experience or testing yet. Actual delivered sales are possible by the end of December, but I think that is an optimistic guess. Obviously it cannot be sold without UL listing.

     

    Joe talked about the high end market as houses with $100,000 of electronic control and security systems, not including the actual devices attached to the system. He declined to discuss the size of this high-end market. No pricing info was released.

     

    In direct conversations I asked about networking, so a fleet a mini-cubes could be centrally controlled and therefore earn money through a consolidator, such as EnerNOC, IceBear or Viridity. I also asked about data communications, such as an ATT data packet device, that is a pretty cheap way to communicate over the cell network. Apparently these ideas had not been discussed.

     

    A "mobile app" to control everything was mentioned (not in the presentation) so it could be remotely controlled by the consumer. I did not get any feeling that wifi or cell packet is going to be in the product in the near term; there was no indication of when (or how) it was going to be introduced.

     

    I talked to Vani about the 60-75 locomotive comment he made at the ESA. He said that number was a guess at the number of over-the-road locomotives NS would acquire from Axion. This is NOT a confirmed order. I asked specifically about yard engines, and he said he had no guesstimate about them.

     

    TG mentioned that NS has publicly said that NS intends to invest $8b in upgrading the Crescent Line to New Orleans. This would include 80 new locomotives, but not all of which would be from Axion. My guess is that these locomotives would be consists of 2 diesels with one electric, so this indicates a battery demand of about 25 locomotives for this project. I do not know if Vani's number of 50-75 conflicts or is congruent with TG's mention.

     

    More later.
    21 Jun 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Thank you very much for your update.
    21 Jun 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Great info Rick! I think y'all that attended could coordinate (with some level of consensus) to make an article for the header of the concentrator.

     

    Thanks for posting!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    The Crescent Line upgrade?

     

    Crescent Corridor Expansion
    Norfolk Southern is working to upgrade the Crescent Corridor, a freight rail network that runs through 13 states and connects New Orleans to New Jersey. A series of projects will lay 300 new miles of track and build or expand intermodal terminals in 11 markets. Construction has already begun on terminals in Memphis, Birmingham, Ala., and two Pennsylvania communities.

     

    The estimated $2.5 billion expansion will enable shippers and trucking companies to move more of their goods using rail, instead of relying on trucks, which are more expensive and produce more pollution. Because of the public benefits of the cleaner air and reduced highway congestion that will result from the upgrade, the U.S. Department of Transportation has chipped in more than $136 million to support the project, with the rest of the funds coming from states and Norfolk Southern itself. The company hopes to finish the upgrade by 2030 but says the timing depends on how easily it can obtain enough public funds for the project. http://tinyurl.com/7jn...
    21 Jun 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Thanks for the notes. With respect to your statement that, "[t]he major hold up for actual sales is UL listing, which apparently is problematic and always takes a long time."

     

    Do you know if they have started the UL process yet and how long ago that was if they did?
    21 Jun 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    RK > "The device will be exhibited at the September CEDIA show in Indianapolis. The major hold up for actual sales is UL listing, which apparently is problematic and always takes a long time."

     

    The subject matter there really begs for the question, Is the PowerCube UL certified? Just maybe lack of UL listing is the major hold up for actual sales in stationary applications across the board.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    It would be nice if NS were already testing the locomotive with PbC batteries.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    "Just maybe lack of UL listing is the major hold up for actual sales in stationary applications across the board."

     

    You raise a good point, D-inv ....
    21 Jun 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... I hope not, or I hope such testing has been going on for quite some time. The company where I hang out had one industrial inverter tested and it took nearly a year. Another one that goes into medical scanning equipment took almost 2 years to get that UL seal. Still don't understand what practical good it does but is a requirement.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    RK, meant to include a thank you for that read out from the shareholder meeting.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Excellent job Rick! The Rosewater project seems to be the hot item near term. The project has been two years in the making and they are hoping for UL approval prior to CEDIA. Although the final design has not been field tested, the test model is currently in operation at the Greenridge facility. They are confident with the supply lines for manufacturing the residential unit and there has been significant input from the installers during the design phase (which is always good).
    The Rosewater group appear to be the ones to watch near term and they have not been bashfully about providing information. I am looking forward to what our ace researchers can dig up. More later as my attention is needed else where after being gone most of the day...
    21 Jun 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    UL listing is a requirement for consumer sales. I do not know if it is a requirement for commercial sales; I am pretty sure it is not.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Over the years I've helped build, specified and bought significant levels of industrial automation. UL listing was not a requirement on any equipment for any company I've ever worked for. It needed to meet things like national electrical codes etc. No UL.

     

    So, unfortunately, I am not well informed on UL at all but I think you're right.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for your post. All of us not able to attend appreciate your efforts and comments.
    22 Jun 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    How is the PC at Axion hooked up and providing frequency regulation to the grid then?
    21 Jun 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    Stef > "How is the PC at Axion hooked up and providing frequency regulation to the grid then?"

     

    It is owned and operated by Axion Power so the unit was not marketed to anyone, only its services. ICBM but i suspect product buyers are interested in UL certifications to facilitate purchase of casualty insurance coverage.

     

    UL certification may not be a requirement of the PJM interconnection or of the local grid operator.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure it looks more complicated than it is. Once you have an ingrained engineer that's been through the process it's not that difficult. But that's the key, having someone that knows PJM's process. I'm sure there are P.E.s that do this for hire.

     

    http://bit.ly/MmPn4h

     

    This is not a task I've ever been involved in. I only knew enough to get the people in the various plants I've worked in that were responsible for this task involved soon enough so they and the utility/federal agency were not surprised. I only needed to supply facilities requirements like power, pneumatic (air) requirements, water cooling and any exhaust for permitting as examples.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    I thought we had a pretty good idea it was through this UL certified inverter:

     

    http://bit.ly/z8p1Bi

     

    Note this is different than their latest "Demand Response Inverter"
    http://bit.ly/KK4Afn
    which is "Pending" UL certification.

     

    Now the question is who makes the "double inverter" Rick referred to above.

     

    I'm having bad ZBB flashbacks :-(

     

    Note how carefully they phrased it:

     

    ZBB Energy Corporation Received ETL Certification to UL 1741 for Its ZBB EnerSection Power & Energy Control Center

     

    "... announced today it has received the ETL listing to UL 1741 certification from Intertek Testing Services for its 25kW grid-tie inverter module of the ZBB EnerSection™ power and energy control center. The UL 1741 certification incorporates IEEE 1547 requirements for the interconnection of distributed generation (DG) resources. This certification signifies that the inverter module of the ZBB EnerSection meets all of the product safety standards for connection to a utility power grid anywhere in the United States or other countries where UL standards are accepted."

     

    http://bit.ly/Ln1kqH

     

    There was some angst (among the investors) about exactly what that meant, and whether it was "good enough." I'm still not totally clear on it. And oh by the way, ZBB is still waiting on two others ... (60 and 125 kw) hopefully soon. The first one took approximately a year, and the guess what the other two should go much faster, with an estimate of 6 months. The CEO got burned guessing when the first one would be completed.

     

    21 Jun 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Indy Power systems, indypowersystems.com, is the electronics contractor for Axion. Unrelated to ZBB,
    22 Jun 2012, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    As I recall ZBB had to spend a huge amount of time getting their proprietary inverter system UL certified. As long as Axion is starting with a third-party power control system that's already certified, getting the energy storage system through should be a good deal easier (I hope).
    22 Jun 2012, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... If the inverter is UL already then the product should go fairly quickly. I guess the question would be is the PbC UL certified or does it need to be.

     

    UL battery site, which I've never looked at
    http://bit.ly/MnnM07

     

    Most capacitors I see being used carry the UR symbol from UL. So I don't know.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    WTB - that's right, the PP inverter was UL certified to connect to the grid, maybe that is why the cube was allowed to connect.

     

    Rick, understood that Indy is not related to ZBB, I think WT is just trying to infer a timeline from another UL listing experience ...

     

    Truth be told, after watching the UL testing timeline at ZBB get stretched out, my heart sunk too ...
    22 Jun 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Input on Meeting:

     

    I ill leave the technical stuff to Rick and others. However, I came away very impressed with those presenting from Axion's Board and staff---- and Joe Piccarilli from Rosewater.

     

    I asked one question related to "scientific" issues----specifically "what would a respected critic of this approach (i.e., a peer, an outside researcher) say in terms of potential non-financial problems that might derail Axion's efforts.
    Vani paused for about 15 seconds (an eternity), and finally said that he could not think of any science-based issues. However, he said that from his perspective one of the major issues going forward is the difficulty in "educating" (or rather -re-educating) people in the battery industry, who seem to have a rather rigid set of questions they ask--- when he (Vani) meets with them. "They ask the wrong questions", he noted.
    I asked the same question of their research director, Anders. His first remark was that he "wondered when I asked the question originally--- just how he would have answered." Then, he said he agreed with Vani's comment about education. He had no potential science-based problems.
    I wasn't sure when they were done, whether I was more or less comfortable with their answers, given that my training/background suggests that there are scientific shortcomings in all approaches (but--then-- I am in the social sciences).
    I cornered Anders afterwards and he said that he felt I was not satisfied with his answer. We spoke briefly---and I left with the impression that he is sincere in his answer above.

     

    On a personal note---it was really cool to meet fellow Axionista's. You are all good guys.
    Roger
    21 Jun 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    rastros,

     

    Thanks for the feedback.

     

    I wanted to just make one comment on your question and Mr. Dantam's response. First I can kind of see why he would have taken a bit of time to give an answer to your question. I'm sure you put him on the spot a little because it's probably the first time he's been asked such a question in such a form. And yet in the positions he's held it's really not outside of the tool set used to manage program risk.

     

    I'd venture a guess that you might feel he could have gone deeper in his response as you suggested. I'd agree and yet I can see where he might feel compelled not to go any deeper in such a form. Same thoughts extend to Mr. Anders. Also, I'm sure Mr. Anders was glad to have the added time to give it some additional thought before you enjoyed each others company. :)

     

    In the end there's nothing wrong with asking the hard questions. It gives you a better sense about how the company is really doing.

     

    Just my thoughts.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Roger -

     

    Thanks for your thoughts and impressions. I wonder what the standard set of "wrong questions" are ... It seems that this re-education is probably what makes the sales cycle take so long ...
    21 Jun 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    rastros - thanks for the info.
    22 Jun 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    He actually cited the "wrong questions" asked of him--& they seem to be those that just don't deal with the issues Axion is attempting to solve. Best to have someone else who was present at the meeting--- & more attuned to "battery speak" than I am---spell out the specifics of his answer.
    Roger
    21 Jun 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Great, thanks Roger!
    21 Jun 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Rastros/Rick et al

     

    Thanks for feedback.

     

    "...one of the major issues going forward is the difficulty in "educating" (or rather -re-educating) people in the battery industry, who seem to have a rather rigid set of questions they ask--- when he (Vani) meets with them. "They ask the wrong questions", he noted. "

     

    Anyone care to expound?

     

    Wrong audience in the room?
    Older/staid thinking decision makers?
    Need that key first sale per segment?

     

    In my experience you need to cultivate key clients willing to jump in ...early adopters...but be it rail, auto, grid...the impetus should already be there.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    To all who attended the meeting, thank you for taking the time to go and taking the time to report back. For those of us who couldn't go, it keeps us updated...which is always the first purpose of this concentrator and the reason we all come here.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Has this been discussed?

     

    Second link down. Out June 1 2012. Response July 27 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/My58Vx

     

    Sorry haven't reviewed it yet. Or maybe I have! :)
    22 Jun 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4015) | Send Message
     
    iind > http://bit.ly/My58Vx

     

    Appendix A - maximum selling prices @ 100,000 units/year: $220 under hood, $180 not under hood.

     

    Lots of technical specs, including
    Maximum system weight: 10 Kg
    Maximum system volume: 7L
    22 Jun 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    It looks to me like the bastards have once again stacked the deck. I read through the entire RFP and was feeling pretty good until I got to the bottom of the Appendix A performance goals where they target a system weight of 10 kg.

     

    Aside from the weight thing, the PbC is looking pretty good.

     

    Last night when I talked with Mayascribe, he told me that he asked the maximum charge current question we were speculating about the other day. The response he got, and I'm not sure from who, was that the PbC can accept charging currents of up to 400 Amps, but nobody is designing systems that need that much charge acceptance. NS apparently needed something in the 200 Amp range to cover all their regen loads.

     

    The HT 30 has a 70 Ah rating with a one hour energy capacity of 500 wh. So unless I'm mistaken, we're sitting on a lead-acid battery that can handle a 10C charging current as compared to a C/10 charging current for every other lead-acid device. Two full orders of magnitude is a big deal in my book.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Yeah, Just started scanning it. Lots of number crunching to be done here to get a feel for where the compromises exist for the differing chemistries.

     

    One things for sure. They aren't sitting still with AGM.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Just ignore the weight & submit
    22 Jun 2012, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, Look at the operating temperature ranges and the target cost.

     

    I've sat in a ton of automotive work shops and they all start out with stretch goals that make you weak in the knees. Kind of like the young single mans fantasy vacation (censored).
    22 Jun 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    For comparison purposes, can you point out a continuum of what applications would require different Amps from a 1 to a 400 level in a PbC battery?

     

    With respect to our current testing programs -

     

    70 amp level HT-30 - in powercube?
    100 amp level - S/S
    200 amp level - NS 999

     

    Are there any others above or below this level that I can't think of?
    22 Jun 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure that there are any applications that need charge acceptance in the 10C range, but it's one of those "magic numbers" that the highest performance lithium-ion guys like to throw around to impress folks. The bottom line is that the PbC takes charge faster than lithium (except the high C rate titanates).
    22 Jun 2012, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Any idea on what range the oilfield application might require?
    22 Jun 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    Since it's basically backup generator replacement, I'd expect a fair balance between the two with charge and discharge rates of 1C or less.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Amen! What's the worse they can say...no? Worth a shot.
    22 Jun 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    I'm confused by the selling price. As things stand now, is there a FLA or AGM that can meet this price for SS? It's like the government saying that Li-ion batteries are going to cost $250. Sure you can wish it, but doesn't mean it can happen in the real world.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely. It's hard to imagine how weight (at this amount of battery for SS/MH) can be much beyond a tertiary KPP. I mean, let's say the ideal SS battery (PbC) meets or exceeds all the other threshold parameters, and is the only competitor to do so, but weighs in at 25Kg vice 10Kg... What auto manufacturer in their right mind calls that a showstopper in a 1500-2000 Kg vehicle?
    22 Jun 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... What other battery chemistry can do S/S for the cost of $220. So if they were to eliminate PbC on weight, at least Li would be eliminated on price.
    22 Jun 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    I'll persist.
    23 Jun 2012, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. And good point. Nothing that currently exists is going to meet all those performance parameters. But PbC has got to be among the select few that meet *nearly* all, and of those few, is sure to be one of the price leaders...
    23 Jun 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    The former posted SS proposal site was found from this older NREL paper.

     

    Lower-Energy Requirements for Power-Assist HEV Energy Storage Systems—Analysis and Rationale

     

    http://1.usa.gov/O1VeyX
    22 Jun 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) 6/21/2012 (Really this time! :-) EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 18600, Vol 105850, AvTrSz: 3920
    Min. Pr: 0.3321, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3467
    # Buys, Shares: 26 103850, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3470
    # Sells, Shares: 1 2000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3321
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 51.93:1, DlyShts 32150, 30.4%

     

    All the following posted *before* reading any of the comments from the folks that attended the AGM, except for Rick's, so keep that in mind.

     

    Since it's not obvious without thought, I wanted to point out that the low of the day (embodied in the "sells" readings) was a single trade at 12:10:04. Trades before that (1 - 13) were all >= $0.3489 and trades after (15 - 27) were >= $0.3449. What prompted someone to let that one go like that is beyond my ken (and Barbie too! :-).

     

    Without that one trade, the low for the day would be $0.34 - another tight-spread one-penny day.

     

    The combination of average trade size, buy:sell ratio (unsustainable?) and VWAP suggests two things to me: 1) the sellers at the $0.35 level are adamant about getting their price, or *very* near it, and 2) most buyers are retail that see the price as attractive or at least low downside risk.

     

    I'm reading this as a growing sentiment in the market, likely due to the recent articles and these concentrators, that AXPW is on the right path for *investors*, not just short-term traders, who would likely be dealing bigger blocks to reap worthwhile short-term gains.

     

    This leads me to say that if the "flippers'" backs are broken, or they get smarter about maximizing their profits, there's a good chance of a move upwards commencing.

     

    Along those lines, I don't (yet?) see any evidence in the price, volume or trade sizes, and certainly not in the buy:sell ratio, of an inrush of the 2M shares from the bankruptcy trustee being available.

     

    Maybe my fond hope that a back-channel deal got done has been fulfilled.

     

    Volume is remaining choppy but trending lower. I believe this is causing some instability in the daily short sales ratios as it is also quite choppy and tending lower. I mention these only because the traditional TA indicators suggest a move *ought* to be coming and the instability of these items seems to support that. But ...

     

    Since I haven't mentioned it for a long while, I should remind that even my "traditional TA" stuff has experimental settings - shorter than normal periods, reduced by about 1/3.

     

    While most of the normal oscillators are still decidedly neutral (an oxymoron for sure), the stochastic entered oversold 6/19 and continues up ATM. This, while volume is trending down, would normally suggest we've topped out (supported by the Williams %R being near the extreme top), although it's not uncommon for this condition to remain for some time with continued price appreciation. But over the last year (maybe not a fair comparison, all things considered) this has not been the case for AXPW. *Usually* we get a quick turn down ... *until* recently. In our latest case, circa 4/3, we just went flat for a month.

     

    Looking at other traditional TA indicators, and my experimental stuff, I believe the latter scenario is most likely *if* we don't "bust a move" up.

     

    MFI has been trending up since 6/13 and has now gone slightly above neutral to 59.64. This indicator is considered to be one of the few leading oscillators and I really hope it's telling the truth here.

     

    The momentum oscillator has shifted from bear (~.83) on 5/23 to bull, now at 1.13.

     

    The rest of the oscillators remain sort of neutral, in line with the uncertainty suggested by my experimental chart factors.

     

    My feeling remains unchanged - we seem to be consolidating at this range as we clean out the "flippers" at $0.35 and there appears to be both little downside risk and a very slight bias towards the upside.

     

    A short-term triangle supports the consolidation scenario and wants us to believe a break is coming. But it's totally ignorant, I think, and I believe we break the apex of that and just continue mostly sideways for now.

     

    Remember - I'm experimental and learning!

     

    hardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    The tour of the plant included everything but the sheeting process (secret sauce). We saw the carbon electrodes being made and we saw them being paired with the positive electrodes and stuffed (literally under high pressure) into the 30HT case. Yes, the AGM line is building PbC's destined for NS.

     

    The flooded line was also running at a pretty good clip. What I found interesting was the many different case sizes. For some reason I got it in my head that they were building just one flooded battery type but that is not the case. They build a wide variety of flooded batteries which I assume to mean they can do the same with AGM and PbC...
    22 Jun 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    That is very important stuff Tim. Thanks. Feel free to give it all a little more color -- I would love to hear all the nitty-gritty details on their operating lines that you can think of. Thanks for the info.
    22 Jun 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Well there was one section of the AGM line that needed a bit more "handling" of the electrodes than they would like and it was pointed out that they were working on some automation for this. They were also working on making it a little more worker friendly.

     

    More later if something comes to me...
    22 Jun 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29774) | Send Message
     
    One flooded line has been working for over a year and they started putting the second back in service during Q-2 of last year. Were you able to tell much about how "production ready" the second line was?
    22 Jun 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    I briefly spoke with Maya about this at the club prior to the tour, but then forgot to ask when I was at the factory - hunger, heat and noise got to me.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Tim, Did you happen to get a cycle time for the anode line assuming it was running in automatic mode?

     

    Thanks for your observations.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco. We were on the end so I could only see the last two bots. However, the belt advanced every 13-15 seconds.

     

    JP. The flooded and AGM lines each ended within close proximity at their own testing bench. I did not see a second line and don't remember seeing two flooded lines coming together prior to the test bench. However, our tour did not come close to covering the factory floor. Also, I was more focused on the PbC line and less interested n the flooded line <smile>...
    22 Jun 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Tim, The belt is all you need to see. For cycle time on an asynchronous transfer line all you need to do it watch the transfer that moves the product and count the time between cycles. There are some caveats. The transfer must be kept full and more cycles are required to do the analysis if the line is not running well.

     

    What you have supplied works fine. Thanks for the info. gathering. We're lucky to have you guys gathering data and sharing it!
    22 Jun 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This way to the 2012 Shareholders conference edition.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Jun 2012, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    HTL - I always appreciate your insight to market behavior. Many years ago when I was a stock broker I occasionally sat in the traders room to watch the chain smoking always moving market makers jump in and out of positions. Those guys practice deception as an art form. They love screwing the other guy out of a penny, it is what they live for (and what they are paid for). If everyone was as observant as you they would have a lot fewer other people's pennies. :)
    22 Jun 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17487) | Send Message
     
    Rick! I'm flabbergasted and thankful! For I long time I've been doubting my basic thesis that understanding the mechanics and ... "sleight of hand" employed by "the markets" was nothing more than an undesired side-effect of my tin-foil hat.

     

    Your statement disabuses me of that thought and also gives me hope that as time passes I may actually have something reliable and useful out of all this.

     

    One big impediment is that FINRA informs me that the OTC markets will *not* publish the monthly short sales transaction tapes as is done for the major exchanges. That data would have provided potentially revealing insight into what produced the EOD short sales summaries.

     

    I've not given up - I *may* be able to get some insight via proxy - examining some of the monthlies that are published and overlaying what I glean on AXPW.

     

    That'll take a long time I think, based on my experience so far.

     

    Anyway, thanks again for the thoughts!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
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