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  • Axion Power Concentrator 118: June 22, 2012: Axion Power's 2012 Shareholders Conference Edition 218 comments
    Jun 22, 2012 7:44 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Shareholders' Conference: June 21, 2012

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    RAILWAY AGE | How Norfolk Southern is "getting the lead out" By William C. Vantllono, June 2012

    NS-999, Norfolk Southern's experimental 100% electric (all-battery) switcher, is undergoing an extensive rebuild with a new type of battery that, according to supplier Axion Power International, "is ideally suited for both electric and hybrid locomotive applications due to its high charge acceptance, fast charge and discharge capabilities - important in regenerative braking - and an inherent ability to equalize voltage when utilized in large string configurations."

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated June 17th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Concentrator Comments: 20,000 comments surpassed on June 1st!

    (updated June 17th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (218)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is one of the two updates we have so far on the conference From Rick Kremantz:
    A few updates from the meeting:

     

    Joe Piccarilli from Rosewater talked about the residential mini cube, aimed at very high end residences. WIll be a full time "double inverter", so it will output very high quality electricity, and therefore will have a continuous electric draw. Double inversion mean all power is converted to DC to the batteries, then inverted back to 120V AC. It will also have the ability to do non-critical load shedding, although the technical aspects of this was not disclosed. Typically this would mean shutting down the a/c and pool pump while the grid power is out, so saving the battery power for the refrigerator and lights.

     

    The device will be exhibited at the September CEDIA show in Indianapolis. The major hold up for actual sales is UL listing, which apparently is problematic and always takes a long time. There have been no testing units with Axion employees, so there is no real world experience or testing yet. Actual delivered sales are possible by the end of December, but I think that is an optimistic guess. Obviously it cannot be sold without UL listing.

     

    Joe talked about the high end market as houses with $100,000 of electronic control and security systems, not including the actual devices attached to the system. He declined to discuss the size of this high-end market. No pricing info was released.

     

    In direct conversations I asked about networking, so a fleet a mini-cubes could be centrally controlled and therefore earn money through a consolidator, such as EnerNOC, IceBear or Viridity. I also asked about data communications, such as an ATT data packet device, that is a pretty cheap way to communicate over the cell network. Apparently these ideas had not been discussed.

     

    A "mobile app" to control everything was mentioned (not in the presentation) so it could be remotely controlled by the consumer. I did not get any feeling that wifi or cell packet is going to be in the product in the near term; there was no indication of when (or how) it was going to be introduced.

     

    I talked to Vani about the 60-75 locomotive comment he made at the ESA. He said that number was a guess at the number of over-the-road locomotives NS would acquire from Axion. This is NOT a confirmed order. I asked specifically about yard engines, and he said he had no guesstimate about them.

     

    TG mentioned that NS has publicly said that NS intends to invest $8b in upgrading the Crescent Line to New Orleans. This would include 80 new locomotives, but not all of which would be from Axion. My guess is that these locomotives would be consists of 2 diesels with one electric, so this indicates a battery demand of about 25 locomotives for this project. I do not know if Vani's number of 50-75 conflicts or is congruent with TG's mention.

     

    More later.
    22 Jun 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    The Crescent Line upgrade will take many years. I hope 25 locos don't dribble out over the next half of the decade. Hopefully the "60-75" Vani guessitmate was on the conservative side and includes more than NS.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I'd prefer 60-75 from NS with a like number from each of the other major roads.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Maya will have some exciting things to report as well =)

     

    http://bit.ly/KRJVIy

     

    ""
    Great day. Fantastic.

     

    But, "yinz" pals, I will not be able to due a summation at least until Saturday or Sunday. Last year I was doing the final polishing on my Notes and More...from the Axion SC, around 2AM.

     

    It's now 2AM. No way am I going to embark on a tally of today's meet. Stay tuned. I will turn out something by Saturday or Sunday. Lots of stuff.

     

    Bottom line for you pins and needles folks? I have positively no doubt that Axion will achieve the 300% YoY revenues.

     

    I did not want to post anything on the APCs tonight. But I did want to let you guys know my take away is positive...way more than last year, or at the November PowerCube unveiling. ""
    22 Jun 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    "I have positively no doubt that Axion will achieve the 300% YoY revenues."

     

    That's a biggy. Can't wait for the full report. You guys rock.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The second from Rastros:

     

    Input on Meeting:

     

    I ill leave the technical stuff to Rick and others. However, I came away very impressed with those presenting from Axion's Board and staff---- and Joe Piccarilli from Rosewater.

     

    I asked one question related to "scientific" issues----specifically "what would a respected critic of this approach (i.e., a peer, an outside researcher) say in terms of potential non-financial problems that might derail Axion's efforts.
    Vani paused for about 15 seconds (an eternity), and finally said that he could not think of any science-based issues. However, he said that from his perspective one of the major issues going forward is the difficulty in "educating" (or rather -re-educating) people in the battery industry, who seem to have a rather rigid set of questions they ask--- when he (Vani) meets with them. "They ask the wrong questions", he noted.
    I asked the same question of their research director, Anders. His first remark was that he "wondered when I asked the question originally--- just how he would have answered." Then, he said he agreed with Vani's comment about education. He had no potential science-based problems.
    I wasn't sure when they were done, whether I was more or less comfortable with their answers, given that my training/background suggests that there are scientific shortcomings in all approaches (but--then-- I am in the social sciences).
    I cornered Anders afterwards and he said that he felt I was not satisfied with his answer. We spoke briefly---and I left with the impression that he is sincere in his answer above.

     

    On a personal note---it was really cool to meet fellow Axionista's. You are all good guys.
    Roger
    22 Jun 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    I hope the science can scale so that the PbC manufacturing costs can drop 10% yoy as volume comes into play. I think at a low enough cost than PbC will win many battles.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    We have two factors running in our favor.

     

    The biggest savings will come from learning curve effects. It's critical to remember that Axion has made fewer than 10,000 PbC batteries. They're at the top left hand corner of the learning curve and working with the first electrode fabrication line that can make a *commercial* product with consistent quality.

     

    The second tier of savings will come from traditional economies of scale.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Bazooka: I have another take on it. Assuming customers buy value ...

     

    Sales driven by regulatory mandate (auto and RRs?), as JP has often referenced, will not be subject to a lot of downward price pressure as regardless of who makes the end-user battery, AXPW will be selling the electrodes to them.

     

    For other applications, I do believe that TCO and amortization schedules will be more significant - so some downward pressure from competition but not much unless there's a sea-change in our competitor's technologies.

     

    Now we add in the cost reductions of of the "learning curve" and "economies of scale" and my guess becomes margins expanding faster than sales price drops.

     

    Again, I postulate this based on customers buying value - regardless of selling price if the value is deemed great enough (TCO, amortization schedules, reliability, ...) they will pay the price with just the normal amount of negotiation related to quantities and schedules.

     

    All that changes when a competing technology arrives that offers equivalent performance (TCO etc.). As JP has mentioned, the time from "Aha!" to commercialization can be quite long. So if we can just get into markets early and establish our footprint, we should have quite a few years with a free run in various spaces.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Without me going back and looking, how does Tim's 13-15 second cycle time look compared to what Tom reported shortly after the line was installed and cycling (12 VDC anode)? Not that I'm expecting rate as that was to be resolved with physical changes in the "Next Gen." line to be ordered as capacity requirements dictate.

     

    If you don't have it at the tip of your fingers I can go back and ref. my saved documents.
    23 Jun 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The goal was to get the dwell time down to six seconds at each station, but as I recall they had one step that required longer and they resolved the issue by dividing the six-second line feed between two twelve-second workstations. So assuming that Tim was estimating time based on watching one of the split-work stations something on the order of 13 to 15 seconds would probably be within design constraints.
    23 Jun 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Another reason why the operational staff are not breaking a sweat ATM.
    23 Jun 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From Tim:

     

    The tour of the plant included everything but the sheeting process (secret sauce). We saw the carbon electrodes being made and we saw them being paired with the positive electrodes and stuffed (literally under high pressure) into the 30HT case. Yes, the AGM line is building PbC's destined for NS.

     

    The flooded line was also running at a pretty good clip. What I found interesting was the many different case sizes. For some reason I got it in my head that they were building just one flooded battery type but that is not the case. They build a wide variety of flooded batteries which I assume to mean they can do the same with AGM and PbC...
    22 Jun 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Any clue on when the NS order will be done?

     

    Did you see, or were you told of "off limits" PbC inventory storage areas?

     

    The contract was announced April 26. One wonders how long they waited (and why) to actually start production ... and how much urgency there was once they started.

     

    Did they wait for some cash to be delivered first? Maybe they had to? Presumably very different terms than the Flooded contracts.

     

    I know ... I/we worry a lot in the absence of real information. But I worry that NS is gonna test NS 999 a while before we see the OTR contract ... and the expected capital raise is looming. A little sense of urgency in completing this contract would suit me just fine.
    22 Jun 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    WTB: If my memory serves, they were supposed to be completed in 90-120 days?

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Yes HTL, Your memory serves you well.

     

    "The total purchase order will be shipped and deployed in the next 90 – 120 days. "

     

    April 26th announcement
    22 Jun 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    WTB, it was a guided tour so we stayed along the path of the production lines which ended (for us) with the air pressure testing of the case. I could see the rectifier area, which was very large, but could not see the storage area.

     

    I do not suspect it will take very long to complete the NS order and I suspect they will want time the order with the retrofit? have you heard anything on the progress with the NS 999?
    22 Jun 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I ask at the beginning of each month, so I'll ask again around July 1. I also watch the Altoona Works Facebook pages all the time for picture clues, but no recent changes.

     

    At the beginning of June I added a question about rack work (which perhaps might be done in advance of moving the engine), but I didn't get any yes or no answer on that.

     

    I don't want to be a pest, so I didn't push back on the non-answer this time.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Of course, the first of the month then... thanks.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Good to hear about the flooded line running at a "good clip". I personally haven't given up hope on TG's 200%+ revenue projections mentioned a few months back. TG just doesn't strike me, based on the audio and video I've witnessed, as the type to get loose with the tongue. I'd bet his comments were calculated on his part (but maybe not vetted by others). His recent silence on this issue may only mean that it is a conversation for a later day; not that the topic is without current merit.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if it affects the number of flooded batts that get sold to our benefactor, but the hot start to the US summer's gotta be helping retail sales for the aftermkt players, no?
    22 Jun 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    I thought the original information for the meeting said that they wouldn't be touring the plant this year? I wonder if someone from Axion read the comments here and decided it was better to have the tour and just shield the sheeting process rather than have a lot of disappointed shareholders?
    22 Jun 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps they held off on the production of the PbC batteries because NS wasn't ready to do the retro-fit before now. I assume the Altoona Works has a busy schedule. Once they placed the order, then had to find a date/time slot to do the work. Just because we want it in a hurry doesn't mean it doesn't have to get in line with all the other ongoing projects.
    22 Jun 2012, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    > LabT IIRC the earlier discussion addressed the choice of facility for the tour and disappointment by some that it would not give an opportunity to see the sheeting operation.
    23 Jun 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    LT ... certainly plausible.

     

    On the other hand, is this project a priority for NS or not?

     

    They've spent a fair amount (but still tiny to them) of money on testing so far, and the potential fuel savings seem significant enough to matter to them.

     

    But it's not important enough to bump the schedule a little at Altoona?

     

    It would be truly sad for all of us if the big boys finally decide to move forward right after we bite the dust in the middle of a world-wide recession. Unexpected Sh*t happens ... unintended consequences happen ... we already got Syria shooting down a Turkish jet .... you just never know what sets it off.

     

    Italy? Spain? Israel gets "busy" in Iran? I heard rumbles that FInland is thinking about leaving the Euro!

     

    Not saying anything's likely ... just that it's possible.

     

    On the other hand, this 72 hour charging factoid certainly added a whole new layer of delay I never considered. Nothing insurmountable, just a more expense into the ramp to "real" production. A bit ironic to worry about shaving seconds off the production line if you don't have the space and infrastructure to do the charging of the finished product.

     

    "Well, Jane, it just goes to show you, it's always something--if it ain't one thing, it's another."

     

    All part of the much longer than you ever expected process of growing an R&D company to profitability.
    23 Jun 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    In the Q3-11 conference call and again in the year end call Tom specifically said that the improvements to the battery plant included "a 35% expansion of the battery formation space. This is extremely important for future PbC sales."

     

    Formation is the process of putting the initial charge on a newly manufactured battery.

     

    It sounds like management knew what they needed and took the right steps in advance, instead of painting themselves into a corner as your comment suggests.

     

    It's one thing to be rationally conservative, but another to be looking for problems that don't exist.
    23 Jun 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    JP: "... but another to be looking for problems that don't exist".

     

    I don't think any of us do that. But casting about in an ocean of ignorance caused, in part, by lack of information leads one to consider all the possibilities and then hope that someone more knowledgeable will graciously correct our misconceptions.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    That's why most people ask questions first.
    23 Jun 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    One point I'd like to add to the conversation as it relates to the shop in Altoona. I've worked in plants where they adjusted their operations to to be similar in oversight structure to what I would imagine Altoona is like. My perception is that Altoona has schedules that are supportive of current operations, future scheduled operational support and R&D. I supported the latter two groups in the facilities I worked in and can tell you that because of unknown events in day to day operations schedules in the latter two groups were always being adjusted. As you can imagine, when unforeseen events happen in "production" the first group always gets priority. As a result projects in the latter groups would often be adjusted via means like O.T., delays, cancellations or alternate off site resources.

     

    My only intent here is to indicate that the NS999 falls into the R&D category and is subject to adjustments we can't begin to understand as outsiders. We can say, given the resources required to do the NS999, that outside resources is most probably not a tool they have at their disposal. Maybe for portions like racking and other details but not at the final build level.
    23 Jun 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    So did the "maxi" cube and Viridity get discussed at all?

     

    If not, I'm disappointed ... it was something we were very excited about 7 months ago.

     

    How many batteries could we really sell for Minicubes?

     

    Isn't most of the profit gonna go to Rosewater? Not that they shouldn't make it, as there's a lot of design and marketing expense they will be paying for. But I can't invest in Rosewater ...
    22 Jun 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The mini cubes will have 24 batteries and the market is high end. I have no idea what the sales projections may be as Joe declined to answer the question. My impression from his presentation is that it was quite large...
    22 Jun 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    The Street ratings service looks at Exide:

     

    http://bit.ly/KpESJf

     

    Upgraded to Hold from Sell.

     

    No endorsement of The Street Ratings Service implied ... I have no idea how good they are, or whether they're better in certain sectors.
    22 Jun 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Really nice reading the comments from the mtg. Thanks guys!

     

    Just a couple remarks about Level II action this morning: 1)EGRO is not on the screen. Taking the day off? 2) UBSS is trying to sell 50k. Is this the same person who got in before the mtg? (a lot of the demand then was coming thru UBSS). 3) Not seeing more demand, at least not yet.
    22 Jun 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    MrI: EGRO is in at $0.35 along with NITE. Interesting to me is the straddle of UBSS - 100K bid @ $0.33 with 50K (initially) offered at $0.34.

     

    AUTO snuck in at $0.3999 x 9.9K ask.

     

    I suspect the no sign of demand yet is just the normal early bottom-feeding attempts.

     

    If short-term supply/demand has any meaning here we should see some higher bids start to come in as bid/ask (treating $0.3399 and $0.34 as one price level) is about 2:1 at NBBO.

     

    All this seasoned with the salt of my tin-foil hat, thinking UBSS is trying to complete some larger order and wants price range constrained because they broke the pattern and came in early at $0.34 x 50K ask when we've been seeing $0.35 as initial ask.

     

    AUTO is small enough (9.9K) where I don't think it offers much of an impediment to UBSS.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    HTL, sometimes my screen messes up--still not showing EGRO nor NITE (on the ask). Will have to call support. What a pain.

     

    I thought that if the mtg went well enough, we'd see at least a little buying enthusiasm. Still only an hour in, on a Friday, but nothing yet. Perhaps the mtg served mostly as confirmation of whatever position one held beforehand. Maybe we'll find out more after the weekend's stewing.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Those who have Level II feeds will want to keep a close eye on the sell-side activity of UBSS. As I recall, the two market makers who did all the pushing and shoving around the pay window in early 2010 when Fursa and the Mega-C Bankruptcy Trustee were fighting for every sale were UBSS and PERT. I think I ultimately concluded that the Mega-C Bankruptcy Trustee cleared through UBSS but it's been a while and I've always heard that memory is the second thing to go for men of a certain age.

     

    If we see an extended period where UBSS is consistently the low offer but out of the money on the bid side, we should be able to draw some reasonable conclusions.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Well, we got some action that cleared the UBSS ask side. 11:46 124K traded $0.34-$0.3455 and only the 100K bid @ $0.33 remains from UBSS.

     

    I believe the 3 trades that comprised the 124K were all one or maybe two orders. They averaged out at $0.3433 - s/b close enough for any large order(s).

     

    0.3450 75000 $25875.0000
    0.3455 6000 $2073.0000
    0.3400 43900 $14926.0000

     

    I suspect the 43.9K and 6K were one order - the UBSS 50K offer, above their ask. I also suspect that the buy side was one buyer.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: All within 7 seconds!
    22 Jun 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Anyone get any impressions or direct comments on the oilfield application efforts ...or whether perhaps Rosewater is totally focused for the time being on the Residential Cube?

     

    I still have no feel for just how big an organization they are ... and whether they're in growth mode.
    22 Jun 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    There was no discussion (that I remember) of the large Powercube at the presentations, just talking about the minicube. The on-site Powercube is online and doing frequency regulation behind the meter.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Hey Rick

     

    I too wish to express my thanks to you and your cohort for attending the AGM and sharing your observations and thoughts.

     

    I am somewhat sad to hear that the Axionistas were apparently only represented by 7 attendees. Frankly if I had known the numbers were going to be that low I would have made the effort to come myself. Not that I am the least bit technical but I do have an eye for detail. And since I am not technical I generally continue to ask questions until I understand what I am being told. Maybe I will get to the September show.
    22 Jun 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Dirtdauber
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I talked with Mario Bottero at the meeting. He is working the oil well drilling application.
    23 Jun 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Ecoult/Ultra battery - chasing the PV market ...

     

    http://bit.ly/MzHat0
    22 Jun 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    I am not the best note taker so allow me some slack and I am open to corrections from the other attendee's...

     

    Rosewater went first and you have this information...

     

    Tom's introduction for Vani was a glimpse into the interview. Tom asked Vani “why are you here” suggesting the opportunity might be under his pay grade. His response was that he saw problems with Li-ion technology and he found the PbC technology interesting. Vani told a story about being a lead acid engineer for Delco/GM in 1982 working on a project to build a lead calcium? but they could not mass produce it (suggesting his interest peaked with PbC when he found they could?). He went on to say the Li is very complicated and requires a lot on ancillary equipment which carries with it a lot of risk. The PbC is much safer and more reliable. He also noted the materials for the PbC come from “friendly” countries.

     

    Vani talked about some markets that I had not heard before from Axion. He talked about hybrid class 8 trucks (20-40 PbC's) and no idle solutions for the same (4-6 PbC's). He talked about the quick response time needed on offshore platforms during a storm for drill retraction? There was also talk about Buick moving to a two battery system which was part of the “education” piece I think. He suspects the reality has not yet sunk in for the automakers.

     

    Enders first point was to add the word “systems” when talking about the PbC and went on to talk about how the PbC, when in a string, will self equalize (no other battery does this). He gave a demo with 4 PbC's at different states of charge (SOC). The idea is that the lower the SOC the faster the unit will charge so each cycle brings the PbC's closer into balance with its piers. This all happens without any electronic controls and is an intrinsic feature of the product (KIAS).

     

    Questions;

     

    Tom was asked if more certifications were needed to become a supplier for the automakers and his answer was none.

     

    Enders was asked what advantage the PbC would have over the UB and his answer was the ability of the PbC to operate at a Partial State of Charge (PSOC).

     

    I forget the question but Tom's response was that the next capital raise would NOT be for operational expenditures.

     

    The above was not all that was presented but rather a short version of what wasn't available through the concentrators or JP's writings. In other words, things I took note of.

     

    I did tour the power cube and was inside when it shifted from accepting power to providing power to the plant. It was like being in a BIG UPS when disconnected from the AC source. Alarms started beeping and the display said AC source offline (or similar). It stayed in this mode until we left the cube. I asked what the preferred SOC was and was told around 60% which is a bit lower than I expected. This was the test unit and the electronics was an Eaton inverter with a Princeton power conditioner in front of it. Communications for the PC looked like a broadband connection. And I was very happy to hear that they are building out in 20' containers as well.

     

    That's all I can think of at the moment. I am sure more will come to me as others report...
    22 Jun 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Tim. Great job. Lots of meat there, for us to chew on for awhile.

     

    I look forward to more posts by the other attendees. This is good stuff.

     

    Very short-term update: we just got some buying--about 150k shares. Took out UBSS' 50k-ish share ask and more.
    22 Jun 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Pretty damn good for one who's "not the best note taker".

     

    Lot's of good info there.

     

    I still think all of you that attended should collaborate on a unified article. The aggregate brain power and diversity of interests and aptitudes would produce a really comprehensive summary.

     

    Thank you Tim!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Fabulous notes, Tim. Thanks.

     

    "He talked about hybrid class 8 trucks (20-40 PbC's) and no idle solutions for the same (4-6 PbC's)."

     

    That's really cool. I bet that perked up your ears! Did he give any hints about which manufacturers might be interested? I would venture to guess that cost and longevity are more mission critical than weight in such applications, giving the King in a String a big advantage over Li.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: If I was a gambling man I'd bet on KW and Peterbuilt (PCAR) as they are already testing (CPST) on the track for one of those brands and building a test vehicle for the other brand.

     

    Mating the PbC and (CPST) might offer a really good solution - the turbines run best at constant power settings (maximum) but you wouldn't want to size it for maximum load, grade and density altitudes.

     

    So a lightweight MT that runs on diesel or NG or biodiesel or ... that puts a large charge on the batteries (a mix of PbC and standard AGM might be the ticket?) would seem a good mix to handle the variability of of grade, load and altitude.

     

    Just hypothesizing here though.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Any talk of the relative costs between PbC and UB? I don't know that technical merit would be enough to justify a premium (or even parity) pricing since UB already has a big name behind it. I'd assume PbC has to cheaper to win the value proposition.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL.

     

    I agree that turbine efficiency and the PbC's DCA and longevity at partial states of charge seem like a great match.

     

    Same concept in hauling an 18 wheeler as what NS wants to do with a hybrid consist on rails. Use the batteries climbing hills, recharge them going back down, and run the turbine generator at its optimum efficiency all the time.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    SM. Perked my ears it did! I did find Vani after dinner and spoke with him shortly but my ride was fading and we needed to leave. From my brief lurking it sounded like a hybrid locomotive in a truck which we know the PbC is a better fit.

     

    There is a weight limit on the highways so it becomes a choice between payload capacity and fuel economy. I can count the number times I have run at full capacity this year on 1 hand. I would gladly give up 2-3k capacity for the gains we might see.

     

    But again, I did not get much time with Vani...
    22 Jun 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Bazook: I think not necessarily "... PbC has to cheaper to win the value proposition".

     

    Think TCO: labor, battery replacement costs, lost productivity, ... Customers with more rigorous cost analysis could easily opt for the PbC if their time-lines are long. Remember that the Ultrabattery still has less total lifetime than the PbC, *IIRC*.

     

    So I think application and customer profile will be more of a determining factor than up-front cost.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka. No costs in the brief technical discussion. KT said the UB was more complex to make but they have been in production longer. I think it would be hard to guess where the difference is today...
    22 Jun 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    bazooooka,
    I would speculate the PbC is somewhat more expensive than the UB. NS chose the PbC over the UB, and my guess is that the UB would not meet the requirement of DCA of 200 amps. Also the UB does not do near as well on the BMW protocol to meet the requirement that BMW established (can't remember the name of the protocol). Lafferty has been studying some charts on it. If the PbC meets the requirements, and the UB does not, I think there is room for the PbC to be more expensive.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Beyond PbC's DCA characteristics, shouldn't we expect charge equalization (King in a string) and life cycle characteristics to command relative value?
    22 Jun 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Yep, with better DCA, longer life cycle and KIAS, seems that would command a higher price over the UB.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    ahh haa King In A String -- KIAS -- give me time to catch up you quick non-homosapien.
    22 Jun 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    King In Charge Acceptance Strings -- KIC-AS*
    22 Jun 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Mr I > "King In Charge Acceptance Strings -- KIC-AS*"

     

    LOL! I like it!
    22 Jun 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    KIC-AS* - Nice one!
    22 Jun 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    KIK-AS
    That has a nice ring to it.
    22 Jun 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    As I recall our discussion with Vani on Thursday evening he was suggesting that the small HouseCube ( my name for the minicube) would be the correct solution for your truck. About 20 batteries and could handle the incredible overnight hotel loads you need at night.
    23 Jun 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    At the shareholders meeting I asked of Vani and Enders this question:
    "We know from published articles that NS chose the PbC over the Ultrabattery. Would you expect the PbC to prove a better product than the Ultrabattery in a grid application?" Both answered "Yes"
    I then asked Enders if that was because the ultrabattery cannot escape the problems of sulfation. He answered "Yes".

     

    The one fact stressed over and over at the meeting to shareholders was the fact that the PbC simply beats the competition in areas that require a battery to operate in a stat of partial charge. There is no equal product in applications where weight is not a critical issue.
    23 Jun 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,

     

    The HouseCube would be about the right size for an entry level hybrid truck application. Vani's presentation had the hybrid numbers between 20-40 and the anti idle was between 4-6. I would be happy to sample the product <grin>...
    24 Jun 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Please: Some of you may copy the Vani´s presentation?
    Thanks.
    Carlos.
    24 Jun 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    I'd make a point of dropping Vani a note, explaining what you do for a living and telling him you want to be a lab rat.
    24 Jun 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Adding to my post. The PowerCube that is currently installed at New Castle is a behind the meter only installation. If it were to be upgraded to the new specifications (Princeton inverter) it could provide power back to the grid. The value of this installation is the constant charging and discharging of the PbC batteries under a heavy load which is beyond the lab testing and proof of the PbC performance...
    24 Jun 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    "the next capital raise would NOT be for operational expenditures."
    huh?
    22 Jun 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    In other words it would be for expansion. Operational expenditures is just day-to-day stuff.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    That is the briefest note from Tim, trangicslip, and to me, the one that jumped off the page.

     

    The implication is very clear to me: The next capital they need will go to adding production capacity and buying materials.

     

    There is another option, of course, that they enter into a new round of extensive testing and experimentation, but I am electing to discount that prospect.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "In other words it would be for expansion. Operational expenditures is just day-to-day stuff."

     

    That is correct and was the one question I was looking to get answered. Perhaps I was hearing what I wanted to hear? let's see what others heard...
    22 Jun 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    This supports the earlier CC comment that cash flow break-even may be next year. It implies that they are still on that trajectory. A capital raise to enhance production capacity will be a springtime walk in the park.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    well, crossing fingers this is about increasing production capacity...
    22 Jun 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    My recollection is slightly different: the next capital raise is for working capital, e.g., raw materials, WIP, etc,., for increasing production, but not development (tooling), R&D, or overhead.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I think Tom meant that aside from the cap raise that will have to happen this winter, he was hoping that afterwards capital raises would be for expansion, not operating expenses. I still felt that an operational raise was still coming to get us through one more year.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Recalling that the raw materials and FG inventory costs for the tolling contract are carried by the customer, I guess we could interpret your recollection as "expansion" since no capital is needed for the tolling contract (other than payroll and such) and the WIP, increased production, etc. you mention would be expansion of one or both of electrodes and batteries?

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    jpau. I don't know but I haven't heard anything mentioned about another capital raise outside of the speculation from this group. Did I miss something? why would the capital raise this winter be a given?
    22 Jun 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Rick > "capital raise is for working capital, e.g., raw materials, WIP, etc,., for increasing production, but not development (tooling), R&D, or overhead. "

     

    Not for "development (tooling), R & D, or overhead" goes a long way toward addressing my concerns.

     

    Tim, Rick, and everyone else attending the SM -- thanks!
    22 Jun 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I based that on my recall that Axion has enough cash to get through the end of Q1 2013 (if I remember correctly). I heard nothing at meeting to suggest we would have a huge revenue ramp before end of 2012. I thought (my recollection is fuzzy) that there was hope to be at break - even by end of 2013. That would mean another raise in Q4 this year for operating cash, no?
    22 Jun 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    jpau, I agree that we came to that conclusion based on what our assumptions were but I don't remember Tom ever mentioning another capital raise until the annual meeting yesterday. Anyway, I am sure we will find out soon enough...
    22 Jun 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    "There is another option, of course, that they enter into a new round of extensive testing and experimentation, but I am electing to discount that prospect"

     

    If Rick heard correctly, this seems unlikely, since he heard that the money wouldn't be used for more R&D.
    One does wonder, considering the current share price, if Axion will try and make some PO announcements before any such capital raise. Basically let everyone know what the new capital is needed for, so that they can get a better price and not need to sell as many share for the amount of money they will need. At least that's what I'm hoping will happen! :-)
    22 Jun 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Tim, the need for a capital raise by the end of Q1 2013 is written about in the most recent 10Q.
    23 Jun 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    jpau: The capital raise will most likely occur during the 4th quarter. I would expect Axion to take in some cash for their year end balance sheet, further supporting the notion that the cap raise will occur this year, and not next year. I will get into this and gobs more as I try to spin out a summation today, do a little polishing and have it up tomorrow.

     

    To all, apologies for the delay.

     

    But, as for the coming cap raise, it will be more "project oriented" than in the past.
    23 Jun 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Bang. I had just assumed the prior discussion in this group came from their calculations. Still not sure how it fits with Tom's comment at the annual meeting. The next 2 quarters are very important...
    23 Jun 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Tim, What about the last 30 quarters? Were they unimportant? :))

     

    See JP was there when things were easy! lol
    23 Jun 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Ah yes, the days of wine and roses. I remember them well and fondly.
    23 Jun 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Sarcasm does not always make its way through on posts very well but in this case it is thick. I would bet Axionista's hardly know 1/5th about the challenges faced in those days and is probably why what we perceive as tough risks today the old guard says, "peshaw, not a problem."
    23 Jun 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It would make a great book, although critics would pan it for being a surrealistic view of things that just couldn't have happened in real life.
    23 Jun 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Point taken, it was not my intention to discount the effort that has delivered us to where we are today. For that I am grateful. So, let me rephrase, the next 2 quarters are very important for me <smile>...
    23 Jun 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Tim, As jakurtz pointed out it's very hard to express sarcasm in words only. Based on your background I'm sure you understand full well how hard you have to work every step of the way to create something and nurture it. Everyone focuses in the flag without thinking too much about the hole, the footer and the pole.

     

    Me too regarding the not too distant future. :-{)
    23 Jun 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I will let the other attendees speak for themselves but I think the word testing is a very bad word around the Axion boardroom. TG made it pretty clear ,at least from his tone, that Axion has completed testing with NS and BMW for products started a couple years ago. He also was saying that both of those companies successfully completed their testing. I got the impression that he felt any independent testing to duplicate the results was pure overkill.

     

    His talk of the next financing round was never mixed in with the word testing.
    23 Jun 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Tragicslip: Combine the 200%+ revenue guidance with East Penn taking all that Axion can crank out on the toll contract and it's hard to see a scenario where cash raise would be needed for anything else.

     

    We've got $475K or so contracted with NS, a ramp up in the tolling contract already.

     

    Based on my vague recollection of JP's running the numbers, the next quarterly should show a very nice improvement in the numbers - and that would be just Q1 YoY and Q2Q changes.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    > HTL I will certainly be looking for some increase YOY in toll contract revenues. But the NSC PbC sale revenues appear likely to fall in Q3 if the AGM line was producing batteries for the contract yesterday.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Yep. And that would be nice timing wouldn't it? ~$475K in the AR hopper, along with income from the tolling, at the time they should be determining the amount of raise needed.

     

    With 3-6 months between now and then, we can hope that one or two more small orders appear as well.

     

    Rosewater is marketing now and will present at a show in September.

     

    With a relatively small cash burn rate, we might need much less than we currently might imagine. It would be nice if we were approaching the permitted 3K batteries/day, but I know that's not realistic.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1170) | Send Message
     
    thx HTL
    23 Jun 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    3,000 per day. Not very realistic at all.
    The one thing that was evident was that all three lines cannot run at the same time. I say this because I had the discussion with one of the plant managers on the tour. My take was that we don't have enough people, charging space, or the right equipment. Remember, this plant was idle for some time. Equipment is not new. At some point modernization will continue and we can get to 3,000. But not now.
    23 Jun 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The most important part of the capacity is the PERMITS to build 3,000 lead-acid batteries per day. Machinery is easy to refurbish, upgrade and replace. The legal authorization to run that machinery is a different kettle of fish altogether.

     

    The board has always taken a cautious approach of taking things one step at a time and expanding as necessary to accommodate clearly visible demand. There are no Ray Kinsella types and you'll never see Axion expand capacity based on "if we build it they will come" thinking. They're more prone to Jerry McGuire thinking "show me the money."
    24 Jun 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, my estimation of capacity is much higher. Most work stations were about 15 seconds or less. The AGM compression station station was longer; I am not sure if there two feeders available so it could be synchronous at 15 seconds. Assuming a 30 second cycle time, a two shift operation on *one* line would therefore have a capacity near 2,000 per day.

     

    The assembly lines are not like auto assembly lines. Classic auto assembly lines are motorized and have to run synchronously; partial staffing does not work. The battery lines are not motorized, and there is sufficient roller conveyor space between stations to permit WIP inventory. The battery line does not have to be fully staffed to operate.

     

    One potential bottleneck is final charging, which we were told was being expanded. Since PbCs require long charge times (72 hours), this may require significant expansion, but not any significant labor.

     

    The line was not being run synchronously. The AGM line would need about 20 people to run continuously, however only four or five were working when we were there. We were at the shift end, and I think quite a few workers had already gone home.

     

    There was plenty of capacity in electrode casting. I remember about four machines working out of ten available.

     

    Ramping up to greater production would need some more workers. As direct assembly work, the skills and training necessary are modest, so getting more labor should not be difficult. Adding charging capacity is not space intensive (and very low labor intensity). Not sure on the cost of more rectifiers; if the charging cycle cannot be reduced it could be a significant capital cost.
    24 Jun 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    I think it's great that so many of you went to the meeting.

     

    Personally, I think the only person getting rich of the mini cube will be Joe Pic, so I am not pinning any hopes on that to move the stock.

     

    Also, Tom already stated a 300% YOY revenue ramp, so nothing new there.
    I guess I was hopeful we would have a more positive delivery of Auto, timing for orders and market potential and penetration.

     

    It sounds like all that was rolled out was the "education" comment.

     

    Unless Maya has a different take , overall, it seems there was just confirmation of the path we knew we were going down anyway, and nothing really new and terribly exciting.

     

    Thanks for all the reports, it really helps build a picture for everyone
    22 Jun 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    If Rosewater does well that promotes Axion too - so no problem if Joe P. happens to line his own pockets (he surely would deserve it). Also "confirmation of the path" toward a large "revenue ramp" is indeed good to hear. I'd rather we have the ball and play the game at our team's tempo, no need to force the action.
    22 Jun 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Baz

     

    I concur. Rosewater will work hard for their money and I am certain that Axion will receive what is their due.

     

    Since TG was a union negotiator in another life I believe that we can rest assured that no one will be taking undue advantage of OUR company!
    22 Jun 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The mini-cube is not just for a residential application. It is also a very good fit for the Zero Energy Building applications. I would be curious to know the extent of the agreement...
    22 Jun 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Johhny r > "Personally, I think the only person getting rich of the mini cube will be Joe Pic, so I am not pinning any hopes on that to move the stock."

     

    I've often heard it suggested that the best way to get rich is to help others do so in the process. I certainly have no objection to Joe Pic helping to make me a little better off through higher AXPW share price.

     

    If there is validity to TG's projection of 300% revenue growth this year it will only come through sales of PbCs and variants of PowerCubes. Driven by PowerCube sales, revenue growth will not be matched in magnitude by profit since high cost components manufactured elsewhere would be included. But, inclusion of PC sales in AXPW revenues means Axion Power assembly of the units (participation in more value added) as well as PbC sales.
    22 Jun 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry, but at the meeting someone asked Tom about whether he still felt there could be a 300% revenue ramp this year or not. IIRC, he said something about sometimes wishing he hadn't said something soon after he said it. I certainly didn't have the feeling he was expecting 300% from that answer; however, some of the guys may have chatted with him at the cocktail reception and received better answers.
    22 Jun 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Jpau: don't be sorry. Every tidbit, positive or negative is important. Fortunately, from past discussions we already knew that he was backing off 300% and converted his intent to "sunstantial".

     

    Based on that I think we've (somewhere?) reached a conclusion that around 200% is appropriate.

     

    Corrections to my faulty memory welcome. Er, well I guess affirmations if I'm correct would be appropriate also.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    "Personally, I think the only person getting rich of the mini cube will be Joe Pic, so I am not pinning any hopes on that to move the stock."

     

    JR, Remember that Axion's primary mission is to sell PBC batteries and ultimately carbon anode assemblies. These are industrial products and in order to sell industrial products you have to supply engineering expertise to integrators. If Joe Pic gets richer Axion stock holders move in the direction we seek.

     

    If they were to start making mini-cubes for various end users it would move them into a different business strategy. Then instead of trying to support OEM's they would be trying to address end consumers. Much different. Not to say the latter is bad but it requires a totally different business approach. With their product and resources I think they would be stretched.
    22 Jun 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    Xtreme Power has it own battery, but is selling the entire technology energy management control system. They are not in the battery business, but a whole technology integrated system. That takes design and prototype capital for each application type. If you have an exceptional component with numerous uses, there is no need to limit yourself to what systems you can build yourself. Axion is not going to build locomotives themselves.
    23 Jun 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    "Tesla Model S: The moon shot for battery-car market"

     

    http://on.msnbc.com/MC...
    22 Jun 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    As I recall, there were two teams in that race, and one of them crashed and burned.

     

    Not every moon shot even gets off the launching pad, for that matter, and the consequences can be ugly...
    22 Jun 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Moonshots are as yet an unproven business. Thus far they have primarily been utilized by very affluent chess players to create an air of penis envy (the more modern use of the term).
    22 Jun 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I'm waiting for the scratchy radio message saying "Palo Alto, we have a problem."
    22 Jun 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    My first of many comments relating to the meeting.

     

    When Tom Granville was asked about the 200-300% revenue increase projection, he chuckled and said something to the effect that he wished he hadn’t said that. I got the impression his concern related to timing of sales rather than the trend and ultimate number. During the factory tour, our guide said that production for the manufacturing contract is increasing.

     

    Also, as Mayascribe reported, break-even is still projected for the latter part of 2013. As others have noted, Vani did not back down from his statement about NS (50-75 units over 5 years).

     

    Regarding the next fund raise I understood it would be “project” related rather than “operations” related. I am presuming that project is the Residential Hub product. The timing looks difficult with shipments starting after year-end and the fund raise possibly to come before that). Separately, Joe P. did say they would be asking for some kind of advance payment / reservation fee. Of course, I believe the assumption regarding the timing of the fund raise is ours so I may be connecting unrelated dots.

     

    I’ll follow Mayascribe lead and attempt to fill in gaps that he and Rick don’t cover over the next week. I will comment here on my overall impression of what happened. While there wasn’t a lot of new info out of Axion, and I left the meeting thinking the road is even longer than I thought going in, my overall impression of the company is more positive, and my estimate of the likelihood for eventual success has increased. Yesterday was literally 15 hours straight of drinking from the fire hose. I learned lots and lots of little things about the company. Had a chance to meet several executives and directors, and also learned a lot from and enjoyed the company of the Axionistas. Overall, a great experience and a real confidence builder regarding my investment decision.
    22 Jun 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to you and every one who made the trip and is reporting.
    22 Jun 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Great job, apm. Thanks. Really looking forward to your follow-on comments.
    22 Jun 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all for reports from AGM.
    In addition to the specifics, it is very helpful to have these type of reflections wherein increase or decrease of overall enthusiasm for Axion as an investment is described.
    22 Jun 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I had the same impressions and left feeling the same way. I'm sorry I didn't catch you on my way out.
    22 Jun 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Keep 'em coming APM! It's the aggregate effort and contributions by all that plug the holes!

     

    Thanks for taking the time!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    >thotdoc
    hear hear!
    22 Jun 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I don't know how your system defines "buys" and "sells", but after you get the info for today, your head might explode.
    22 Jun 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I use the ADVFN "Trades" screen for that. It's nothing but a classification based on nearness of the trade price to the ask, the bid or in between.

     

    Actually, today was less impressive than the prior few days, if one looks at 4.61:1 as "less than stellar". Prior few days make this look weak, but I did say they were not sustainable.

     

    Working back a few days starting with yesterday: 51.93:1, 5.16:1, 3.16:1, 2.10:1, 10.76:1 and last (and least) 1:3.96.

     

    The chart in my instablog shows it much more clearly as percentages. Since I can't post a graphic snippet here, maybe this will serve to highlight it. 10, 25 and 50-day average buy % for today and ... let's say 6 days back: 0.64 0.60 0.53 and 0.50 0.51 0.49.

     

    A month back (5/22): 0.47 0.48 0.45.

     

    So you can see we have been progressing well.

     

    If this was pps, I would have my long, slow, steady grind up. I'll settle for this as I think it leads to what I want to see develop. Just no irrational, sudden, huge, and unsustainable price spike please!

     

    I want to see things progress in a manner that engenders strong confidence, not irrational exuberance! ... Well no risk of that ... yet! :-)

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    How about if we compromise with "rational exuberance" HTL?
    22 Jun 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. My super quick count yielded more like 30:1, as there was a 10k share trade at the bid, and almost everything else traded at the ask, IIRC.

     

    Anyway, some good buying going on, IMO. Maybe the first time in awhile we didn't immediately sell off on decent news (the mtg went well, according to reports so far). I even saw EGRO back off of 35 cents for all of a minute. lol

     

    Wonder if the BK shares are being sold yet. If so, and it's thru UBSS like last time per JP, than the 50k block may have been them. At least they're not silly sellers, yet, anyway. When combined with Quercus, it's almost too smooth so far to be true.
    22 Jun 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    +1 TB! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    MrI: "... almost everything else traded at the ask, IIRC"

     

    You're right in the ballpark - only 3 sells.

     

    "Wonder if the BK shares are being sold yet".

     

    Still no symptoms of lots of extremely large sellers pushing to get out. Seems more of an orderly exit to me.

     

    If Quercus was in and honoring the ~10% rule they could move ~28K (1/11th of the total volume) today. I saw some early trades at the lower prices that might have been Quercus. I suspect this only because they went off early so easily at lower prices - out of character for what we think we've been seeing - the "flippers" @ ~$0.35 holding the line much longer than what was seen today.

     

    However, we mustn't overlook the possibility that the flippers might be "averaging out". If they targeted an average flip price of (e.g.) >=$0.35 and have achieved more than that heretofore, they can now sell lower and still meet their target. This would fit in with JP's suggestion that some just like to roll their money several times a year.

     

    From 2/6 to now we have ~25.014M reported shares traded. If JP's 2:1 holds and the upper limit of 30% being flippers holds, they should be nearing the end and could be accepting lower prices now and still hitting their target because we had those prices of $0.37 and higher (as high as $0.46 or so) for a long time (through 5/16).

     

    This 2:1 wouldn't leave a lot of room for other than the flippers though, as someone suggested last time I thought of this.

     

    I have to doubt the strict 2:1 ratio. As you've pointed out, EGRO has been right there. If that's a broker's MM, wouldn't need two trades to get the sell done. And JP also mentioned UBSS and PERT today as potential candidates for the flippers. They are also MMs owned by brokers.

     

    If the share issue purchasers placed the shares with a broker that has access to their own MM, or arrangement with an MM, then the actual shares to trades ratio should be *much* closer to 1:1 than 2:1.

     

    If this is the case, there's room for the flippers to be nearing exhaustion and non-flipper trades to have occurred as well.

     

    If the above holds any water at all, your suggestion about the 50K block from UBSS would fit right in. Recall that they were on both sides - 100K bid at $0.33 and 50K initially offered at $0.34.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    However, I *think* JP was referencing UBSS in relation to purchasers of prior capital raising shares, not the BK-related.

     

    JP please correct me if I'm wrong there.

     

    Anyway, that early UBSS ask did break the pattern but they didn't come back for more at lower prices. If the shares were from the BK I would think they would have been dumping more heavily. This *should* have resulted in more sales hitting the bids and/or reducing asks. But the low was a "buy" at $0.3499 at 11:17 (6th trade of the day) and then "Nevermore". It was predominately increasing and steady trade prices from there forward.

     

    So my best *guess*, considering all, is that the BK shares are not here yet; we may have some Quercus in and may have (some of) the "flippers" cleaning out the dregs.

     

    If so, I think this phase is nearing an end. That might account for the "choppiness" in volume, average trade sizes and daily short sales we've been seeing.

     

    Lots of guesstimation in here,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    My working theory is we don't have any flippers right now and the selling is coming from Blackrock, which has whittled its position down from 5.2 million shares at the end of March to 1.7 million shares today. My rationale follows.

     

    The February 2012 purchasers paid $0.35. If they were looking for a flip they'd want a minimum of 20% on their money. Selling at $0.35 would be a break-even – a busted deal. Too many things are going well for that kind of capitulation among recent buyers.

     

    The 2011 proxy statement said that Manatuck Hill had moved their shares into street name, which means that Blackrock is the only big holder left that still has shares in paper form. Since FINRA reported shorts tally 3.6 million shares since the end of March, there has been a lot of stock coming from paper.

     

    I see a $0.35 price as a *pre-empt* by a big holder that wants to move on. The 2012 buyers would be reluctant to settle for a break-even price of $0.35. We haven't seen a lot of the market maker games like I'd expect if a holder was trying to squeeze every penny out of a sale. We also haven't seen too much pushing and shoving at sub-$0.35 levels. To me it *feels* like a big holder has said to a market maker "I want $0.35 for this position, but I'm not willing to take less. If somebody wants to undercut me let them." That would suggest that the little bit of pushing and shoving we saw at sub-$0.35 prices on low volume days most likely came from retail accounts – lapsed Axionistas as it were. I believe the core selling pressure is coming from somebody very professional and Blackrock's the only known holder that fits the mould.

     

    If my working theory is right, they'll likely hold the ask at current levels until they're out of stock, which would support your view that sideways for a while longer is likely. I don't see months of sideways, but another three to four weeks seems likely unless volumes move back up to more normal levels of 300,000 shares a day, which could take them out in a couple weeks.

     

    I mentioned UBSS earlier because I *think* the Bankruptcy Trustee will direct sales through them when it starts selling. Unless and until we see one market maker (UBSS?) as the dominant low offer for an extended period of time, it's a pretty safe bet that the 2 million shares are not flowing into the market.

     

    A few weeks ago I posted a question about a possible buying syndicate and circled enough interest to take Blackrock out if my back channel inquiries were successful. I'm surprised that my moles haven't been able to get any information, because they usually can if there's more than one seller. At this point I view the lack of information as confirmation of my theory.

     

    I'm more convinced than ever that a long slow grind up is not in the cards. If the only seller we have left is Blackrock I expect an inflection before the end of July. If the Bankruptcy Trustee joins the party at $0.35 then the flats could last till the end of August. Once those two sellers are gone I won't be surprised by a series of spikes as the price finds it's true level. While some Axionistas will be tempted to trade the spikes, the strategy won't work well and pretty soon everybody will be sitting on their hands to keep their fingers away from the sell button.

     

    I don't want to sound like a broken record, but I do want everybody to go back and re-read these two Instablogs:

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

     

    I have seen this pattern before with a couple of clients that didn't have to endure anywhere near the pain Axion has seen and weren't able to build a stockholder base as strong as the Axionistas. Both of those earlier clients had *market mix* stockholder bases of short and long term holders. Axion doesn't have a market mix stockholder base. The Axionistas all climbed an incredible wall of worry and generally have high expectations. I don't see many of you leaving the theatre for a lousy 100% up.
    23 Jun 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I need to adjust my Blackrock estimate in response to a comment that jakurtz posted and then deleted.

     

    Blackrock had 5.2 million shares at the end of Q-1 and were the only big holder left with paper certificates that would give rise to FINRA reported shorts which total 3,585,747 shares since March 30th. When I deducted the 3.6 million FINRA shorts from the 5.2 million starting position it took me to 1.6 million shares left. Jakurtz question did, however, cause me to take a look at one factor that I overlooked earlier, the 633,000 shares that Quercus sold in Q-2. With that refinement, I have to increase my Blackrock estimate to 2.3 million shares left.
    23 Jun 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    From my vantage point I am in 110% agreement with you on what is happening and will happen. I wondered how you got such a solid number on the shares BR had left. Thanks for answering the question in detail and finding it useful to do so.

     

    It looks like they update their holdings anyhow and we should have a more solid number on July 15th. Unless they don't do that now. I was hoping you had got your number through some backdoor channel IPO-lawyer voodoo magic that made it definite, but the FINRA stuff seems to be pretty accurate so far.
    23 Jun 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    They won't be updating their holdings in the future because they fell below the 5% ownership level when Axion did the offering in February. We've seen the last report we'll ever see from them.
    23 Jun 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I am kind of hoping that is not the case since Special Sits holdings continue to show up and be updated on Morningstar and other sites that track funds and institutional holdings, but I understand none of those sites can be relied on 100% regardless.
    23 Jun 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    EGADS! I've got to fix my anti-typographical error process!

     

    "But the low was a "buy" at $0.3499 at 11:17 (6th trade of the day)"

     

    s/b

     

    "But the low was a "buy" at $0.3349 at 11:17 (6th trade of the day)".

     

    Apologies to all!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. There's so many moving parts to all this, it's hard for me to recall and integrate them all.

     

    Your patience in repeating and updating is truly a Godsend.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I'm going to put links to this series of comments in my instablog as a reminder to myself of these additional factors.
    23 Jun 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Keep making mistakes like that and we'll take away your tin foil fez.
    23 Jun 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1728) | Send Message
     
    I agree that most of us are in for a much longer ride than 100%.

     

    IMHO this is a pretty safe bet. East Penn is likely in the wings as buyer if there are problems that are insurmountable.

     

    My first question of Axion, were I a big potential buyer, would be: If I build my product plans around your organization, what happens if you fail?

     

    Axion's likely answer is East Penn.
    23 Jun 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Seek help brother. Your source code might be a "bit" off.

     

    http://bit.ly/O62UPo
    23 Jun 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, being off by one bit really "bytes" too! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • jvanwest
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    First off thanks to all who made the journey to the shareholders meeting, and reporting back what you saw. Particularly comforting in that it seems the majority of you feel more confident about the companies success.

     

    John you make a compelling argument and I sure hope that your working thesis comes to pass by the end of the summer. In my last comment I compared Axions prospects to biotech and if your thesis does come to pass I believe that Axions share price should move quite dramatically to reflect all of the MAJOR business relationships and development that have transpired over the last two and half years.

     

    Here is something for people to consider and I would like to here everyones input.

     

    If in fact the next raise will be for more project based rather than operational, it should look quite different than the last two raises. For example someone reported that Joe Pic said there will be reservation fees with the small residential cube. Therefore if Axion with rosewater can say to whomever we have X number of reservations and we Y number of dollars to grow the terms of the financing should be different than whatever the stock price is at that time? Perhaps they might consider other financing rather than equity placement? Again lets hope JP's inflection comes soon for us all then we wont have to worry about financing terms as much.

     

    JVW
    23 Jun 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the Blackrock analysis, JP. I am seeing them selling off at roughtly 1m / 900k/month since March 31. Would that put them at bingo shares some time in September?
    23 Jun 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Bingo? Not good enough. I want to see them splash... ;)
    23 Jun 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It will all depend on total trading volume. The higher the volume the sooner they're out. The 10-day average volume got pretty soft after the Q1 conference call in mid-May. It started trending back up in mid June and will hopefully continue to trend up. I think the annual meeting went a long way toward calming the concerns that arose after the Q1 conference call. As long as they buyers are confident, the little bit of stock remaining in the hands of willing sellers isn't much more than a speed bump.

     

    It always amazes me when I read Axionistas fretting about *big* sellers because it's such a relative term.

     

    On March 30th last year we had 200-day average volume of 185,000 shares and three BIG sellers with 8 million shares each.

     

    Today we have 200-day average volume of 325,000 shares and a couple big sellers who might have a couple million shares each.

     

    Fretting about those sellers is worrying molehills while driving a big CAT dozer. The more rational response is "gosh, the fire sale can't go on much longer so I'd best finish on the cheap while I still can."
    24 Jun 2012, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Nice work, John, jk and HTL. Thanks.

     

    I've noticed that on the 2 or 3 days recently that there was not much selling pressure (e.g., AUTO not placing an ask just under the prevailing ask, nor walking it down), we moved up a penny or two. Those are big percentage moves. Could only take us mere days or a few weeks in a row of such behavior to get us back to a much more respectable price very quickly.

     

    Of course, there are still potential supply wildcards. Manny Hill could start selling, for instance. Or Special Sits could reverse course again. But the more big sellers are gone, the better.

     

    Now, back to BUYING pressure. Would be cool if the retail product demand and show produces some buying pressure. Some of those contractors that come a calling gotta be noticing the opportunity. As long as they don't have inside info, please, buy away! And outsiders may start to notice more and more, too.
    24 Jun 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    I don't think we'll see a repeat of the Q1 soft flooded sales which were a result of the inventory lag because of the warmer than usual winter.

     

    "AAA issues heat advisory for drivers"

     

    http://bit.ly/LGEyZ1
    22 Jun 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    A good top level overview of some of the considerations of matching up energy storage/system components/application.

     

    http://bit.ly/McSnkN
    22 Jun 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) 6/22/2012 EOD:
    # Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol 307804, AvTrSz: 8319
    Min. Pr: 0.3349, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3461
    # Buys, Shares: 34 252904, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3476
    # Sells, Shares: 3 54900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3392
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0,VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 4.61:1, DlyShts 130667, 42.5%

     

    I'll add my thoughts later or over the weekend. I like the way things are going - the increase in short sales percentage again suggests we have a "pull" scenario going on rather than anxious sellers jostling to dump shares.

     

    10-day average volume has crossed above the 25-day average and I suspect is heading towards attacking the 50-day next: 243K, 216K and 274K respectively.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    A few comments on the "200 amp charging".

     

    A stockholder brought up a question about the 200 number, what does it mean, how important is it. The response was nothing but caveats, "depends on the application", vague battery size issues, and, in my opinion, misdirection. I then asked could they state what the charging C rate is. "Don't want say, it depends, not a valid metric, subject to misunderstanding..."

     

    What was repeated several times was that PbC had "2 to 4 times" faster charge acceptance than Li. No hard numbers of actual watts, or comparison to which lithium chemistry, or under what conditions were revealed.

     

    In fairness, there are a lot of ways to measure the C rate for charging, and so to be truthful one has to indicate specific operating and testing conditions. A charging C rate without specific conditions is a very squishy number.

     

    Later, I asked one of the lab guys about it. A little bit of hedging, and concerned about what he was allowed to say, I understood that the battery can accept 200+ amps for short periods of time while in the middle of its PSOC without electrolyte gassing.

     

    There has been chatter about 10C charging rates, and I think that is unsubstantiated. A 200 amp charge at a nominal 12 volts into a 500 whr battery (at C1 discharge rate) is a 4.8 C charge rate. That may be supported in the 40-80% SOC (state of charge), but certainly not over a wide range of charge. Please note these numbers are loosey-goosey, especially regarding the very wide range of voltages in a PbC battery. Note the planned use of PbC for S/S is in this range of PSOC.

     

    I had a great factory tour. The last stop is the final charging of the batteries before shipment. The factory manager said charging took 8-24 hours, depending on the battery. I asked if that included the PbC. No, PcBs take 72 hours of charging(!)

     

    I do not know what is happening in a 72 hour initial PbC charge. Perhaps it is "activating" the carbon, or making sure the electrolyte is fully saturating the carbon, or maybe something else. Interesting factoid.

     

    The Axionists spent a lot of time, over a lot of beers, discussing how much technical information Axion should release. I strongly favor that objective technical product data should be released. Several of the group thought data should not be released, and were not concerned about the vagueness and misdirection. We did agree that beer is good, and more beer is better.

     

    Obviously, there is a lot proprietary manufacturing information, pricing, supplier information, etc., that should not be released. My opinion (and frustration) is that very little data is released. I think truthful, objective information should separate us from Elon's "friends": "There are few industries with more BS than the battery industry."
    22 Jun 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    One additional detail related to your discussion of the charging station and the extended time frame to charge the PbC (which I missed). Axion is in the process of outfitting a separate space (adjacent to the current charging room) to be dedicated to charging PbC batteries only. The company does plan to measure much more precisely the energy put into each battery, but Rick's point shows the obvious need.
    22 Jun 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Rick: I'm not an engineer at all but I wonder ...

     

    "I do not know what is happening in a 72 hour initial PbC charge".

     

    In conjunction with other factors you've mentioned, I thought of the disparate materials in solid form and wondered if the additional time might be a QC measure to reduce thermal stresses. Different materials with different thermal coefficients being tightly packed and needing to ultimately provide mechanical support ...

     

    Maybe keeping internal temperatures at a "simmer" rather than a "boil" via low charging rates?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    BMW may be refocusing on more realistic plans:

     

    http://bit.ly/O2jWxT

     

    Come to daddy.
    22 Jun 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    More on the topic. To be used as an excuse?

     

    http://bit.ly/Mf87nn
    23 Jun 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Yup, maybe instead they should make a new 3 series PbC based micro-hybrid and save the huge lithium, battery costs and then they'll come in under a 40k MSRP for a sporty car that can get 25-30 city mpg I'd think. That'd likely sell better than a near 50K priced lithium plug-in. I don't think they will be doing 100,000 units/yr if they go ahead with their current plan.
    22 Jun 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    My subjective summary: After hearing Tom speak, I felt that it was unlikely (absent some surprise) that there would be anything in 2012 to move the needle. I did think that there was some hope that we could be revenue neutral by end of 2013. When I saw the Rosewater new product presentation, I didn't see it as a game changer. Rather, I saw it as an acknowledgement that railroad and auto could take a lot longer than we would prefer to move forward in size, so they are trying to generate revenue to help in the interim.

     

    After Vani's talk, I felt a minor discouragement that domestic automakers might even be more difficult (take even longer) to sell to.

     

    I felt the tech was solid, and that everyone at Axion is confident in it for partial SOC apps. I was impressed with everyone I met from Axion.

     

    Bottom line (and this is only my opinion): I see no 'high-probability' catalyst for upward movement in share price this year. I expect we'll need a capital raise, probably in Q4 - for operating cash. I don't see us hitting a dollar per share this year. I did feel that TG still believed break-even could be in the cards by Q4 2013. To me, this means no huge orders from auto, grid or NS in 2013. So, IMO, we're a 2014 story at best. I could of course be wrong.

     

    One last item - wasn't much mentioned about grid storage. When they mention the onsite power cube, they talk mostly of frequency regulation. Storage is supposed to become a huge market, did anyone else who went feel that someone was focused on that?
    23 Jun 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I agree with jpau that I did not hear anything that would significantly impact the top line in 2011. My take from TG's deflecting response to the 300% revenue increase was he now thought it was too optimistic. No specific revenue guidance was given.

     

    Share price is impacted by rumors, hopium, disillusionment, and (sometimes) actual financial data. I do not have a year end share price guesstimate, but I remain long.
    23 Jun 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • big_bear
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    What a buzz kill....but I appreciate the honest perspective (jpau). I'm hoping to attend next time.
    23 Jun 2012, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Wow,,Lets see,,
    I am chiming in after going to the dance,, don't believe a word those guys are saying..!! They will only use/abuseyou.
    Actually, they seem to have nailed down most of the important points already. They have also done a much better job than I could have. Thanks Tim, AP marshall, and Rick,Rastos.
    I will say, the quality of the other Axionistas was very impressive,,what a great bunch of guys, I am extremely glad to have met them all. (seriously)
    Now, Bidness,, String is King,, not to mention the 1st Elvis, but it is a really large feather to put in the hat of AXPW, quite exiting imo.

     

    They make the secret paste in the basement of the working factory.. my 1st thought was ,,its gotta be dirty down there, and I have worked around carbon....and it is by far the dirtiest thing I know of, so why not. They wouldn't let us go see how it was done, fair enough.
    I am curious as what Maya has to say about the 300% rev growth. I assumed it was buried/ Tom apologized for using strong language, and being too exuberant. I will take this time to apologize to TG for painting him in a corner, (so to speak) I wont do it again, but felt the issue needed addressed publicly.
    Other than that,, Tom said he was happy with the neg electrode line, and I believe him. There is a question as to whether they are stock piling the electrodes. ?
    The new electrode factory had some serious shelving, and a 20 ' power cube trailer.. = good.
    The line had 3-4 people tending it, and I heard that's what it would normally take. I had hoped for 1-2 nbd.
    My only problem as a shareholder was that,,while I was happy with the labor at the main plant,, they were working hard, sweating a lot, and getting dirty, the peeps at the electrode plant seemed way too clean,happy, and dang,, turn down that ac..it cost money! (mine).. That is Amish humor, fwiw.=0
    I did get a sense that they now are selling a specific product,, last year it was sort of.."well we can run a line to the trunk, and that should do it"
    I am concerned about the burn rate before the big orders come in, or orders that will eliminate the burn. How will this look for the next offering. TG did say it should be for getting the home cube to mkt, but , I hope we have some orders that come in that bury that monster once and for all.
    That's all for now.Maybe more. Matt
    23 Jun 2012, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    AmishElvis:: "There is a question as to whether they are stock piling the electrodes. ? The new electrode factory had some serious shelving, and a 20 ' power cube trailer.. = good".

     

    If we have a sequential production schedule of make electrodes and then PbC batteries, I assume the AGM lines in the old plant will have a product change-over at some point to stop working the toll contract for a bit while they crank out the NSC $475K stuff.

     

    If that's so, they would need to store the electrodes (and other stuff) until time to use, so might that account for some of the "serious shelving"?

     

    Re the 20' PC trailer: didn't we read in the near past about some potential bids/contracts for Ft. Meade or some such? Maybe the 20' trailer is related and that's one of the things we've not yet heard about that is progressing well?

     

    I know we don't know, but that's a thought that crossed my mind.

     

    Thanks for taking the time to add to the knowledge-base!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the toll contract has anything to do with the AGM line. When we bought the assets in New Castle the AGM line was the crown jewel because it was the bit we needed to finish development work on the PbC and put the PbC into production. I can't imagine the board encumbering that production capacity to a low-margin toll contract with somebody else.
    23 Jun 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Matt, Quick question. Of the 3 or 4 "peeps" you saw on the line, How many do you think were direct labor (operator, set-up, pack final assembly /unpack&load components) vs indirect labor (supervision/engineeri... I would expect everybody other than the operator directly tied to the line to be very under utilized until the operation is scaled (more lines and appropriate material handling equipment etc.
    23 Jun 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    I was not counting the supervisor, he was with us. It looked like they were all watching for problems / back-ups and issues. Maybe one would do the take-off, going on was in large rolls, so not much labor there. I was surprised at the number needed to run the machine,, They didnt look overly busy,,so?? anyone else have thoughts on what they saw?
    23 Jun 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Amish. So really it's hard to garner at this time what steady state staffing might look like with the limited time spent during the tour. I would expect that given it's a new product start-up on fresh equipment that they are in "All hands on deck" mode watching to catch and correct unforeseen issues with both the product and the equipment.

     

    I did see one name associated with Axion as a manufacturing level engineer and he was, based on what I could read of his bio, still pretty green. Hopefully they have additional staffing on the mission performing this function along with the added assistance of product experts. Lots going on during this phase of a program launch.

     

    You guys gathered a significant amount of intelligence during this AGM. I'm very grateful that those that could take the opportunity to join in are willing to take the time to post the information gathered and share thoughts on what was seen / discussed.
    23 Jun 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    IIRC JP has stated several times that the government will not require auto companies to use batteries that are not commercially available. That is why the car companies are using AGM in micro-hybrids instead of PbC. I tend to agree with him, but we all know how our government agencies do not all show common sense at times. Below is an example where the EPA is requiring oil refiners to blend with a non-existent fuel.

     

    http://fxn.ws/KTeIEU
    23 Jun 2012, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Maybe we can get the EPA to require automakers to warranty the batteries used in stop-start vehicles to function efficiently for at least five years. - Yeah, that's the ticket.
    23 Jun 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    "Yeah, that's the ticket"

     

    LoL! I "Lovitz"!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • michaelga
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    This is a pretty disgusting comment, and the several that follow...
    This 'news' is, 1st, political: it's from Fox News--the archetype of that genre.

     

    2nd, "not a gallon of cellulosic ethanol in sight." YES there is: it's called food: corn, sugar cane: things people eat!

     

    It looks to me that what the evil GOVERNMENT agency is doing is saying, 'Get on the ball and pursue the (not-so-new) development of garbage/trash cellulosic-stuff-to-fuel technology'.

     

    So, how you can want to pursue new, not-in-production technologies and then poo-poo those YOU happen to know nothing about is what is so infuriating with your hyper-arrogant comments. (Many do not exhibit this attitude, but too many of us do, sadly.)

     

    If only you would play by YOUR rules and 'stick to the facts'.

     

    Science is evil unless it produces the results you want to see--that seems to be what I hear from the (____).
    (fill in the blank)

     

    Maybe we ought to move to Beijing where the air is, uhh, rich!
    signed,
    stick to the facts
    26 Jun 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LqjrHO
    26 Jun 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Michaelga, I have read many opinions on this site that I disagree with, but not once have I attacked with the venom that you portrayed in your post above.

     

    If you are a reasonable person you will read and consider what I have to write in response to your post.

     

    We all have a different perspective and set of beliefs. I happen to believe that Fox is one of the better news networks. You clearly have a different perspective. I am able to communicate and disagree/ agree with others in a civil manner. That is the only way discussions will produce better understanding.

     

    Iindelco provided a link to Wikepedia that differentiates between the different kinds of ethanol and exposes the scientific fact that cellulosic ethanol has not been produced on a commercial scale. A few years ago a group of investors attempted a plant thirty miles from where I live. It failed.

     

    Your charge that I/we consider science as evil is absolutely ludicrous. I have an engineering degree and look at the world in a very scientific manner. Many of the contributors on this site have scientific degrees and have spent their careers in some field of science.

     

    I grew up on a farm and have first-hand experience with the EPA and government agencies doing very crazy things with farmland regulations. They pay farmers not to plant part of their land, grow trees, or agree to do other things with their land. If you play by their rules, you get support payments. They have taken a self-sustaining business and turned it into a business that is dependent on government payments. I have 20 acres with a little creek that is dry half of the year. If I wanted to cut my trees and sell them, I would have to leave all trees within 25 feet of the creek alone. I have to pay taxes on the land, but I can’t do anything with it. They are even considering making cattle farmers fence off all their creeks and ponds so that cows cannot wade through the water.
    If you want to have productive interactions please read and consider the posts. If you have something to contribute, respond with something that is productive and adds to the overall knowledge and understanding. Feel free to disagree. But back your disagreement up with facts and respect those who have a different opinion. There are liberals, conservatives, and everything in between on this web site. If you get offended because someone makes a political statement, you will be offended.
    26 Jun 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >jveal ... Much as I can relate to your outrage to a plainly stupid rant, I do have to take issue with your belief "that Fox is one of the better news networks". I know that network LOVES to blame the EPA for .... I don't know .... Everything they can think of and present it in a less than truthful manner that you apparently buy into.

     

    The simple truth is that Congress passed, under the Bush administration, a bill, 2005 Energy Policy Act (H.R. 6).

     

    http://1.usa.gov/QfADo4

     

    That bill set as a target the production of 1 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol by the year 2015. The law is still in effect no matter how dumb an idea it is. The EPA is, by law, required to offer incentive to any fuel producer by, in this case, reverse auction ... offering to buy until 2015 the yearly allotment set until those magic 1 billion gallons are used up. It has only been a month ago that the Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry was all abluster about this mandate; "What's the hold up?" asked Nebraska representative Lee Terry. "I would have expected mass production by now, ..."

     

    http://aol.it/QfADEy

     

    You can read the bill (it is humorous) or just read what FOX twisted for their own purposes to mislead you to believe on page 286 of the .pdf under (c) Program (1) Establishment.
    26 Jun 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    DRich, thanks for your respectful response. I checked your links. Thanks for pointing out the page number on the legislation. I would have never found it if you had not. My eyes are too tired right now.

     

    I can respectfully disagree with you on FOX and not let that get in the way when you present info.

     

    Is there anything factually wrong with what the FOX article stated about the EPA still charging fines when there is no cellulosic ethanol to blend?
    26 Jun 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >jveal ... Yes, FOX is not telling quite the truth without totally lying because they say; "And yet, they still have to pay what amounts to fines:" not actual fines. They are the best in the biz at this because you read into it what is not actually stated.

     

    The fines don't pertain specifically to the use of cellulosic ethanol and don't arise from HR6. I didn't find any statute that pertains to strict adherence to specific types in the allotment volumes, just total ethanol. EPA knows there is no supply of cellulosic but if you want to manufacture some they will buy up to 8.5 million gallons of it ... because it's the law that they have to buy it if available. They are obligated to offer to buy what they consider to be an economically viable volume for a producer and can't just zero it out.

     

    The lawsuit brought by the refiners has virtually nothing to do with cellulosic but ethanol in general. First it is not economical to buy. Second the level of ethanol required by Congress for 2020 has been demonstrated to damage most, if not all, ICE and they don't want the liability. None of the laws passed exempt them from that liability and the automakers aren't stepping up to warranty the fuel. I guess it is easier to get the court to allow the EPA permission to offer a liability exemption than to get Congress to amend the law, but tossing it into your linked story makes for a good story line ... just slanted. You bought it and that is good enough ... right?
    26 Jun 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Thanks for your reply. I would like to know the specific EPA regulation in question because I like to deal with the facts.

     

    You may want to reconsider your accusation about the slant of FOX news. I found almost identical reporting from the NY Times and several other web news sites. All the news stories I read reported that the dispute dealt with the requirement over non-existent cellulosic ethanol. Each of the articles placed the blame squarely at the feet of the EPA's refusal to allow a waiver because there was no fuel to blend.

     

    http://nyti.ms/Ls4vJa
    http://bit.ly/Mpd0KE
    http://bit.ly/Ls4wNn
    http://on.mktw.net/Mpd2C4

     

    The issue you referred to about liability over damaged engines should also be a news story. Increased food prices is the other scandal. The government programs for farmers I referred to above have been designed to keep food prices cheap. For decades the price of corn and wheat was in the 2 to 3 dollar range. When ethanol blends hit the market, corn and wheat prices tripled overnight. The farmer does not get the increase. Fertilizer prices tripled overnight. My father and brothers now use chicken litter instead of fertilizer because of the price. People all over the world have to pay higher food prices because the government requires ethanol blends that damage engines and eat up the food supply.
    27 Jun 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >jveal ... Looks more like the "echo chamber" and lazy journalism than actual news to me. A common occurrence and I'm of no mind to reconsider my opinion of FOX. The NY Times at least indicates why the amount is set to where it is and that is because;

     

    "KiOR, for example, has broken ground on a plant in Columbus, Miss., that plans to start turning Southern yellow pine chips into gasoline and diesel components in the fourth quarter of 2012 at an annual rate of 11 million gallons, although Matthew Hargarten, a spokesman, said the quantity to be produced this year might be adjusted."

     

    and they are required, by law, to make allowance for the possibility.

     

    I hate digging through regulations because they make it very difficult and I think they do that on purpose, but I'll give it a shot later.
    27 Jun 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    All, I don't follow it that closely but was aware of this earlier failed attempt.

     

    Range Fuels Cellulosic Ethanol Plant Fails, U.S. Pulls Plug

     

    http://bloom.bg/NBwOpX
    27 Jun 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Drich, seriously? Echo journalism begun by Fox news and followed by NYTimes as well as three others, and the most liberal paper in the country does not put quite enough spin on the story for your taste?

     

    Maybe you could use a little time to recalibrate your news feed opinions.
    27 Jun 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco, The Soperton plan is the one that is about 30 miles from where I live.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    jveal, Did you follow it during its tenure?

     

    I just can't understand how one government organization gives a start-up loan like this and then they produce cellulosic methanol and the EPA doesn't support it.

     

    I guess empires fail for a reason.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco, I did not follow it. I heard 2nd hand news about it from my brothers. People were excited about it because a lot of pine trees are grown in the area. Soperton has a "Million Pines Festival" every year. I was more interested in algae used as a fuel source at the time. I have only been actively following the markets and doing a lot of research the last year and a half.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Thanks jveal. I could understand how the local region would be excited given the natural resource available. Just can't understand the lack of government focus already mentioned.

     

    Oh well. I guess for some of the US it's a good thing we're the worlds reserve currency and the last conventional super power. For a period strength and money can shield incompetence. Not exactly worth bragging about!
    27 Jun 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco" Is it "methanol" vs. "ethanol"? That was my initial take.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jun 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    That's my read as well HTL.

     

    Maybe they were going to use it to make MTBE before that fell apart? MTBE was used to boost the octane level in gas after lead was removed. But it's horrible in ground water.

     

    Ethanol is OK in ground water and orange juice! :)
    27 Jun 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Thought this was interesting re: Blackrock.

     

    http://reut.rs/KFcEPv

     

    Some major shake-up with chief managers leaving. Among them their Energy Fund manager Daniel Rice "...(rice) will help transition some of his funds, a process that is expected to last through December."

     

    Rice does not know Axion from a hole in the ground but my takeaway is that in these strange economic times one can not read into anything going on with funds other than *everything* is a mess.
    23 Jun 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Thinking out loud - Given that:
    1) Stop/start (S/S) is being driven by govt. fuel economy regs,
    2) S/S has been proven in Europe with a working battery,
    3) That current mass produced batteries (http://bit.ly/MN80Od) fail in S/S quickly,
    4) That the only fix is to replace the battery with another AGM or better battery if available,
    5) The failed battery must be disposed of, hopefully at an approved drop off site,
    6) That the EPA regulates the disposal of lead acid batteries, including local landfills,
    7) The EPA maintains a list of recognized testing labs.

     

    Would it be productive to seek a local ordinance, based on land fill protection, that requires all new car S/S batteries to carry a testing lab "estimated" life sticker? Something like "S/S 6-month". Could bench testing for a couple of months allow for data that could be applied to years of use?
    23 Jun 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Used lead-acid batteries never see a landfill because they're the most valuable junk in the world. In their last quarterly presentation Exide had a slide that compared their "core acquisition costs" with the LME price for lead which is currently about a buck a pound. The spread between the core costs and metal value was very thin. That means a small flooded battery is probably worth about $35 at the recycling plant and a big AGM might be worth closer to $90. That's why lead-acid battery recycling rates in the US are consistently north of 98%.
    23 Jun 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Agreed that at a macro level Lead recycling rates are among the best. And it seems in europe most owners don't care when S/S fails, as long as the vehicle runs. Still, in most towns, including this one of 250K people, there is that end of the road bluff where several car batteries, washing machines and last year's Xmas tree show up every spring. The reason here being the public landfill and commercial outfits charge $5.00 per battery. Which makes me think they also end up in the landfill, disguised, in small numbers. But now you got me thinking, what exactly are the costs to the landfill for the declared majority? Hmmm, another project.

     

    Note: Link in 1st comment inserted by SA.
    23 Jun 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    "Used lead-acid batteries never see a landfill because they're the most valuable junk in the world"

     

    John, that's not entirely true. Unfortunately, they been seeing landfills, and rivers, and anywhere they can be dumped in China. That's one of the reasons they have such a big problem with lead poisoning of their children in remote areas where there isn't a recycling center to take used batteries to.
    24 Jun 2012, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There are a number of places in what used to be called the third world that have very bad practices. We can watch them from a distance and say to ourselves that their practices should be closer to ours. Until they decide to change their practices our opinions are only interesting. I, for one, will not accept any responsibility for the bad acts of others that I have no power to influence.
    24 Jun 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    Granted, but unfortunately when you see headlines talking about children getting lead poisoning anywhere it just stokes the flames of those who want all things lead banned. The reasoning for the lead poisoning is often lost on the desire to get headlines.
    24 Jun 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Last time I had some to get rid of I just took them to Advance Auto (maybe it was Auto Zone?) and they took them for free. I suspect most auto stores would do the same.

     

    They even took the flashlight batteries.

     

    I'm thinking these places get paid by recyclers for the batteries.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jun 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I know all about the perception and I know all about the cheap toxicity shots the Knights of Gaia take at every opportunity.

     

    That's one of the reasons I go to extraordinary lengths to hammer home the point that lead-acid batteries are widely recycled and lithium-ion batteries will never be recycled.

     

    The lithium-ion industry has done a fabulous job of creating a PR mythology and perpetuating it at every opportunity. Fighting the myth is very hard work.

     

    Another popular myth is that EVs are inherently superior to ICE. They do pollute less than straight ICE, but they're dirtier than HEVs that cost far less.

     

    The problem with commercial truth is sometimes it's not very true.
    24 Jun 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    "Last time I had some to get rid of I just took them to Advance Auto (maybe it was Auto Zone?) and they took them for free. I suspect most auto stores would do the same."

     

    Ditto. Haven't tried flashlight batteries, but thanks for the suggestion.
    24 Jun 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, I doubt many lead batteries are thrown in dumps in China. They are valuable, and a battery is an easy item to collect and sell.

     

    There are significant problems with lead pollution in China, but that is from particulate and dissolved lead. Lead scrap and refining operations melt in open pots, so a lot of lead is released in to the environment. Irresponsible battery manufacturers can cause a lot of pollution in melting and grinding operations, and that pollution would go far from the company's property line.

     

    Sure, in lazy red-neck towns in the US there are batteries dumped and nobody collects them. If you can find a lot of them, you could make some money. Rgholbrook says there is a cost to recycle; most places I know of pay for batteries.
    24 Jun 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer

     

    One of your fellow SA authors just used this for a lead-in to an article, but it's just too apt to neglect.... Right now I'd say we're somewhere in the second stage John, but I can't tell whether nearer the beginning or the end...
    24 Jun 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I think we're getting nearer to the end because themes and issues that I've been writing about for a long time are finally beginning to emerge in the MSM.

     

    My favorite resource constraint argument of all time is here:

     

    http://bit.ly/PWj4cn
    24 Jun 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    That was simply great. The wisdom to take knowledge and relay it so simply comes with age. A great gift for any audience.
    24 Jun 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    That was tremendous. It really puts a face on the reality of power needs of the future.
    24 Jun 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It puts a face on future power needs, but it also puts a face on the bigger problem of persistent global shortages of water, food, energy and every commodity you can imagine.

     

    As billions move across the power line, the clothes line and the air line they're going to need stuff to support that new prosperity. Most of that stuff comes from the black earth and unlike energy that might come from renewables, there is no such thing as renewable steel, copper, rare earths or cobalt.
    25 Jun 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    I don't want to be too sappy, but that has to be not only one of the most succinct discussions of the topic, but one of the most touching.

     

    For me it's quite real because as a child in Phoenix AZ I used to help my maternal grandfather deliver ice for ice boxes (not refrigerators, but *real* "ice boxes") in residences and other places.

     

    He was physically a very slight Irish man and watching and helping him carry those large blocks of ice up and down stairs and across open paved areas when the temperature might be 110 or so ...

     

    Needless to say, I have a strong "sweat equity" bias and an empathy for what was presented in that video.

     

    Great post John!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jun 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    IN OTHER NEWS:

     

    'Gaia' scientist James Lovelock: I was 'alarmist' about climate change

     

    http://on.msnbc.com/Mh...
    23 Jun 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    OMG, I'm taken aback.

     

    Now all I have to look for going forward is that free electricity we're all going to get from nuclear reactors.

     

    A more realistic view (caution strong language).

     

    http://bit.ly/MG3M9E
    23 Jun 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    A long time favorite of mine.
    23 Jun 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Thats good! I have never seen it. It really goes with some thoughts that have jettisoned to the forefront of my mind after reading some of the commenters on JP's articles the past couple weeks...so, it really struck me as 100% TRUTH. good stuff!
    23 Jun 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    EV sales in Australia. Seems there are less gov't incentives.

     

    http://bit.ly/MG7boM
    23 Jun 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Axion secures another patent. Among other things this one appears to increase the life of the positive electrode. This statement is included in the summary of invention: It is an advantage of the present invention that there is reduced likelihood of failure of a positive electrode and a hybrid energy storage device containing such a positive electrode.

     

    http://bit.ly/LfEWuZ
    23 Jun 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    JVeal: Great find. Wonderful what can be discovered with an Electron Scanning Microscope, eh? Who would've thought that rotating the grid 90 degrees, adding a few bumps, ... could extend the electrode life by re-routing electron flows?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: Yes, this is great news. I saw the electron scanning scope at the Gen 2 plant, which can be tuned up to 30,000 X!

     

    My article is finished, and will be up in about an hour or a little longer. It will appear in the next APC header.
    23 Jun 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Dauber,
    Reading about how Axion keeps innovating the product brings a tear of joy to my eye.
    24 Jun 2012, 04:02 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    jveal,
    You've become the King of Patent Research. Thanks again.
    24 Jun 2012, 04:03 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    H.T. Love,
    "Who would've thought that rotating the grid 90 degrees, adding a few bumps, ... could extend the electrode life by re-routing electron flows?"

     

    It is something that has been on my mind for several years, but was too embarrassed to admit it. Err, what is electron flow?
    24 Jun 2012, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Every new patent is like adding another ring of protection around the basic PbC patent. Early stage patents are usually a bit weak because they deal with broad scientific principles. The patents that are really valuable are the ones that get deep into the nitty gritty of how you make the magic happen.
    24 Jun 2012, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Metro: "... a tear of joy to my eye"

     

    Gee, you don't *look* Cyclopsish! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jun 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    A few more thoughts about the meeting,,
    I used to be in sales, a long time ago, it was always fun to watch the pros, from what I could tell, Vani seemed to be extremely finished. He handled himself really well. I'm thinking he may be perfect for that job.

     

    Why would they buy a 20' trailer for another power cube if they didnt have a use or customer for it?

     

    I did not see Mose Yost, he is their maintainance man, and I heard about him in a bar 200 miles away. He is extremely accomplished, capable of fixing anything.

     

    As far as the number of people on the elctrode line,, I believe the numbers work well financially even if it is 3-4. So, not a biggie. I would imagine they will still get smoother over time.

     

    Lastly, I feel better than ever about the technology,, the string ,, the charge rates, and the cycles,,all quite amazing. I am worried a little about the next offering being too dilutive, but think that may already be baked in to todays price. ? I have no problem holding my core, and may add when a major deal is struck.
    23 Jun 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    amishelvis,
    Somehow your log in name is inconsistent with being in a bar - didn't think Elvis hung out in drinking establishments. ;) Appreciate your commets.
    24 Jun 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Elvis hung out in eating establishments later in life.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jun 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Get your reading glasses on. Mayascribe's long awaited second edition of "Notes and More: Axion Power's 2012 Shareholder's Conference" is right through this link.
    -------->

     

    http://bit.ly/Lqq3KB
    23 Jun 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Dirtdauber
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Some tidbits from the AGM
    1. Tom's opening remarks included comments to the effect of: The "fun part" is about to begin. Axion is entering "a new era". An "exciting new technology" is "about to take flight". RoseWater is "an important part".

     

    2. If I understood correctly, Tom said the roll sheeting machine(s?) are operational. Plus, there are no certifications needed for auto applications. So, I infer that there are no Axion barriers to commercial production, other than manufacturing capacity and the money and time to increase that capacity.

     

    3. Per Enders, the deep cycle tests were discontinued after 2,500 cycles, because the batteries involved were old tech batteries. They shifted this test series to batteries made with electrodes from the robotic line. These batteries contain "a ton of improvements". The new tests are up to 1,000 cycles; TG would not allow predictions of their potential performance.
    4. The shallow discharge tests, which were done for the auto application, greatly exceed automakers expectations.
    5. The Q1 10Q mentioned shipment of the "latest iteration" in PbC batteries shipped to OEMs they are working most closely with. Those are just the latest in their ongoing improvements. Innovation is constant; next year's batteries should be better than today's.
    6. As previously mentioned by others, there was substantial discussion of the need to educate some potential customers. People tend to ask questions about the traditional items of interest for an ordinary car starter battery, such as: ampere hours and Cold Cranking Amps, despite the fact that the PbC is not intended to and will not compete in that space. Those questions do not address any of the PbC's strengths, which are also inherent weaknesses of ALL lead acid batteries with lead negative electrodes. The strengths are: inherent stability in strings of batteries connected in series, high charge acceptance, long life at extended partial state of charge, long life in repeated deep discharge, long life in repeated shallow discharge, and high efficiency at partial state of charge.

     

    7. String Stability.
    "String stability" is a Major (if not the most important) advantage of the PbC. In strings of batteries connected in series, the PbC batteries inherently equalize their SOC with charge/discharge cycles, with no outside input, despite small differences among the batteries, and even if the batteries start out at different SOCs. So, if a battery in a string fails, it can be replaced without any concern over differences in SOC between the new and old batteries; the batteries will sort it out over the next few charge cycles -- completely on their own, with no internal or external electronics involved. However, with charge/discharge cycles, LABs will accentuate minor differences in charge acceptance or initial SOC. That is, the SOC of weaker batteries or batteries with lower initial SOC will get lower with successive charge/discharge cycles! So, it is essential that the string be taken off line frequently and have the SOC of the batteries equalized. This is done either by overcharging the string until all are brought to an absolute full condition, or by topping them off individually. This ties with the LAB's tendency to grow large PbSO4 crystals when at a partial state of charge, which leads to further degradation of the ability of the battery to take a charge.
    23 Jun 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Dauber,
    Reading about how Axion keeps innovating the product brings a tear of joy to my eye.

     

    Somehow, I posted this comment above your post, so excuse the duplicity.
    24 Jun 2012, 04:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Metro: "duplicity."?

     

    Check that.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jun 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Dictionary.com
    3. Law . the act or fact of including two or more offenses in one count.....

     

    Since most of my posts are probably at least doubly offensive, and

     

    4. ....being twofold or double.
    24 Jun 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like