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  • Axion Power Concentrator 121: June 28, 2012: Notes And More From The June 21, 2012 Shareholders Conference 196 comments
    Jun 28, 2012 11:20 AM | about stocks: AXPW

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    Axion Power: "About To Take Flight"

    by Mayascribe

    A veritable cold front blew in for this year's Shareholders' Conference. Last year it was searing, at 102 degrees; this year we topped out at only 94 degrees. The humidity was drenching, the beautiful New Castle Country Club pool looking inviting, even at 10 AM.

    Attendance was up significantly this year versus last year. Though the numbers are still small, and subtracting that there seemed to be half again more Axion Power employees present this year than last, it also seemed that there was a solid 50% increase from shareholders and perspective investors present.

    The business part of the meeting went smoothly. All motions were approved and seconded. Director, Mr. Glenn Patterson, was given a very nice crystal plaque for his "all-in" help over the years in bringing forth Axion Power to where we stand today.

    With the business out of the way, CEO, Thomas Granville, stepped up to the podium smiled, and said, "This is when the fun begins!" Tom did not this trip recount the early stories of how Axion Power came into being, but he did talk about the roster of contributors, from the board of directors, to leading officers, to developmental executives and shop foremans, of which I feel we are so lucky to have.

    I always enjoy listening to Thomas Granville tell a story, and my favorite this year was about the hiring of Vani Dantam. At first, Thomas wasn't sure that Vani Dantam, the new Director of Marketing, would become part of the Axion team. But Vani sought out Axion (if I am correct), because of the unique properties the PbC holds.

    It rapidly became apparent to Thomas that Vani had amassed over his working years and amazing depth of knowledge of the automotive industry, and also held an equally amazing array of key contacts throughout the industry.

    Seemed for a time, that Vani's pay grade was above what Axion Power could afford. But, a deal was made, Vani rented a place in New Castle, enrolled his kids into local schools, and now is a New Castle home owner in permanent residence.

    I think he was smiling more than anybody present, of Axion leadership, or the shareholders.

    As most of you know, Vani Dantam used to work with the now defunct Ener1. My absolute favorite story he told, was that his wife, "Made him park his Ener1 Lithium battery test car down the street from his home," reminding me of last year, when Thomas introduced the quite humorous new term, "Car-B-Que."

    Followers of this blog, must realize that that was a very prescient, and full of imagery new "Urban Dictionary-type term," as we all have read and seen pictures of numerous lithium cars spontaneously blowing up, the GM hardened laboratory having an eight inch thick steel door bent up, and some lab windows getting blown out; people unfortunately injured.

    Vani is indeed a very knowledgeable man, and I found him sincere and accomplished in answering all but Rastro's question (a shareholder from Pittsburgh) who asked about what scientific problems existed with the PbC. After a long, pregnant pause, Vani couldn't think of one! Except for trying to get industries to realize that the PbC has capabilities that rival, or in some cases, are better than lithium ion batteries.

    The PbC is cheaper to make, safer to make, easier use, and much safer to use. The PbC does not require TWO reinforced steel "casings." The PbC does not require as much ancillary costs, such as wiring, a clean room for making lithium ion batteries, and a much more complicated Battery Management System, and coolant barriers. The PbC is safer to transport. The PbC works better in extreme temperatures, and this is perhaps my biggest takeaway from this shareholders meeting:

    The PbC accepts a charge two to four times as fast as does a lithium battery. How huge is this fact when it comes to using the 12 Volt PbC (or the 16 volt big brother 30HT) in stop/start vehicles, for over-the-road and yard switching locomotives, and especially for grid applications.

    It wasn't until this meeting, my third time to visit New Castle, that I feel I have a much better understanding of the PbC. For lay people, or non-battery geeks like me, I will attempt to explain the PbC, and its make up.

    Each PbC is really a string of two volt batteries inside a single casing. For the 12 volt PbC, there are six two volt batteries. For the 16 volt 30HT, there are eight individual two volt batteries in a casing that stands about 30% taller than the 12 volt PbC.

    So in affect, each battery, the PbC, or the 30HT, is actually a string of two volt batteries within a single casing.

    I will herefoward refrain from using terms such as "cathodes" or "anodes" when referring the two "poles" that emerge from any battery casing. It will now be the negative pole and the positive pole, because inside the PbC or 30HT are many electrodes and carbon activated sheets (which I formally thought was the cathode).

    Many months ago, I was embarrassed, could not even post a comment about where the activated carbon sheeting was made. Been there twice before, and I had not seen it. How could this be? I felt I was letting all of you down, and quite frankly felt all the good and innocent qualities "ignorance" implied by my utter lack of where-about knowledge. I finally had it confirmed that I will never see them made. And very few ever will. My best guess is that the carbon sheeting is made in some "Bat Cave" below the Clover Lane facility...no way to be sure! Hugely likely that only a very few Axion employees ever get to see or work on the activated carbon sheeting process being manufactured.

    The 10 AM morning meeting went fast. The Q&A spilled beyond the allotted 1PM time. I believe about half of all questions asked, were asked by "Axionistas." All were very informed questions. Later in the day, at the cocktail party, Thomas spoke to myself and others that he really enjoyed answering, taking on hard questions, as it helps in the future with explaining the capabilities and the future potential for the PbC.

    Which circles back to Vani Dantam. The hardest thing for him and all of the Axion leadership to accomplish, is to take head on all the lithium hype, all the government subsidies, all the media coverage, the backing by uninformed, or improperly informed Washington DC politicos. The "appearance" that shifting away from lithium back to "lead acid" seems to have taken on a patina of going in reverse technological innovation. This is an ongoing very hard message to turn on its head: That lead acid is NOT a bad thing simply because lead is used. Lead acid batteries are the most recycled product of ANY product used in the United States. Over 99% of all lead acid batteries are recycled, and there is money in the reclaiming of the lead to be recycled into new batteries. Lithium ion batteries are virtually non-recyclable; people, companies get paid to recycle lead acid batteries, but they have to have to pay to dispose of, or recycle lithium.

    How our leaders actually want to obtain lithium, to become depended upon lithium sources outside the US, largely mined in unfriendly nations, is beyond this writer. The current policy in Bolivia, is to invite all the foreign investment they can obtain, to build lithium mines. But there is no guarantee that any plant built will not someday be nationalized. There are other countries in the world with lithium potential. But any new lithium mine of "worthy" size, will cost several hundred million dollars to create.

    Then, of course, there is lithium and "battery grade" lithium, much, much more expensive and rare. I encourage the more informed to comment about lithium potential resources availability around the world.

    The curious question for our US leadership, both corporate and public, is: Why are we hyping, subsidizing and developing multiple industries to use lithium when it comes from foreign and potentially unfriendly nations. Haven't we been sending trillions upon trillions of US dollars to the Middle East, to countries that don't like us, and now we're are on the threshold of doing it again?

    WHEN ARE WE GOING TO LEARN FROM OUR PAST STUPIDITY?

    Preposterous to me, especially when lead is cheaper, available, and mined in friendlier parts of the world, as well as being mined right here in the US.

    Perhaps, Axion's greatest challenge going forward is going after and challenging the lithium supporters. It seems the automakers are focusing more on weight and subsidies, than dynamic charge acceptance, driver (and homeowner's) safety, and most importantly, reliability and cost.

    SIDEBAR NOTE: I encourage all of us to come up with a boilerplate letter that we can all send to our senators and congressmen/women.

    The following are bulleted points (some of my opinion):

    Rosewater And The Residential Cube -- Rosewater CEO, Joe Picarelli, learned the night before the Shareholder's Conference that he was to give a mini-lecture introducing this new product. He did excellent job despite the short notice. The press report covers most of what I have to say. I will add though, that this market is a pretty significant development. It's really all about the uber wealthy, with their $100,000 home entertainment, lighting, and security systems.

    Many companies that do this have visited New Castle, some staying for two days on their own dime. Companies, or dealerships, also brought their installers, who basically couldn't wait until this product becomes available.

    This new cube can be stored virtually anywhere, in a basement, a garage, attic, or outside, in any climate. It locks down a perfectly smooth 110/60 deliverance of power, which, if solar is added, can take a Malibu or Miami mansion completely off grid.

    I want one of these!

    There remains some questions about UL approval, and if this product can or can't be sold without approval. I gathered that UL approval will be gained by the end of this year.

    Joe "Pic" invited me to the September Indianapolis show, the world's largest of its kind, and said he will provide me with a press pass, as this show is not open to the public.

    The Grid -- In about two weeks we should hear of an update about FERC regulations regarding pricing policies. My feeling is that the PowerCube sales delays have largely been because of the lack of some kind of pricing guidelines or formulas for the time shifting energy storage capabilities that the PbC holds, as well as other battery manufacturers attempting to help smooth out grid fluctuations.

    I do not believe this is an Axion Power exclusive problem, but rather, and industry-wide problem, which has no parameters, no past formulas to base future pricing decisions on, all because this is basically brand new evolving technology (more later).

    Railroads-- For quite some time I have held concern for Axion shareholders' hopes that the PbC could be potentially used by all railroad outfits. I had often questioned to myself how viable the PbC would be in the Rocky or Sierra Nevada Mountain chains.

    Vani Dantam did speak of Norfolk Southern and its Crescent Line, which basically weaves it's way all the way from New Jersey to New Orleans. Needing clarification of this, I approached esteemed Board of Director, Bob Avrill. My supposition proved correct. The PbC is NOT viable for any rail road company to use in high grade, steep mountains. Simply, and though no climb up is up all the way, nor decent straight down all the way, the PbC would be fully charged in say, the first 10% of a decent. The rest of the trip all the kenetic energy is lost. Nor, would the PbC contribute enough to make economic sense to help propel a long train hauling coal very far up a steep grade.

    The PbC further makes no sense in flat states like Iowa.

    However, in the "rolly poly" areas, like the Appalachians, the PbC should excel, and save any rail road significant fuel costs. Therefore, I believe that the numbers of potential over-the-road locomotives able to use the PbC with economic viability is greatly reduced.

    However, yard switchers, from all rail road outfits, remains prime potential for adopting PbC technology; still a huge market.

    According to Thomas Granville, all Axion testing is done, all Norfolk Southern testing is done. Only third party testing at Penn State is what is left. Shrugs followed.

    It was mentioned that there will be about 80 new locomotives (or retrofitted?) coming onto the Crescent Line, but not all of them will be using the PbC. I remain unclear if this is because, say for every two diesels used, another one will be a PbC locomotive.

    Lastly, far back into the early Axion Power Concentrators, it was suggested by me that racking issues could be a problem holding up things. My information from this meeting is that this was to some degree true.

    Automotive -- My sense from New Castle is that the major OEMs are going very slowly with adopting the PbC. Perhaps the biggest problem is in the Catch 22 category. Axion does not have the capability to make millions of batteries. How does Axion gain a major order from a major automaker, if they can't make the batteries? We all know the answer is Axion reaching a partnership with a major battery maker, like Johnson Controls, Exide, Enersys, or East Penn.

    This is a tricky area, because PbC technology is not limited to just the Automotive arena. No way can Axion afford to limit its future toward one sector, only to be contained in others. Thomas did mention licensing, or partnering up, but I don't expect this to happen soon with GM (the first time I have ever heard Thomas mention GM, btw) or BMW.

    Rather, though, it appears there is STRONG interest from smaller automakers. It is my opinion that the smaller automakers will come out being the smarter automakers, if they do indeed choose the two battery approach using the PbC, and a small cranking battery.

    All information we have found here in these forums, and Enders Dickenson's excellent Power Point Presentation at the morning meeting, show categorically that all AGM batteries will fail within about 8 months, some within two months, even if the vehicle is rarely used.

    But there is a problem within the problem. Both the automakers and the EPA just don't get it. I expect that the EPA currently is only interested in fuels savings of just bought, drive-off-the-lot mileage and EPA emissions requirements. They are clueless when it comes to when the stop/start feature degrades to where the AGM battery renders stop/start useless.

    Sure, the vehicle will still work. But the fuel savings proclaimed by the automakers, and approved by the EPA, essentially breakdown within months after the vehicle is driven off the dealership lot.

    It could be several years before the EPA wakes up, and I foresee many, many dissatisfied stop/start vehicle buyers coming more into the media forefront within the next few years. I believe a class action lawsuit could be looming someday. I also believe that someday the EPA will be forced by its own requirements and regulations to enforce the automakers to create a better solution.

    For me, and I fully recognize this could take years, but this potential scenario holds majestic, unbelievable promise for Axion Power and the shareholders.

    For those of you that recall my family's involvement two generations back, in buying a few shares of a company called Universal Wire and Spring, which then became Hoover Ball and Bearing, and then Johnson Controls: Near the end of the cocktail party I related that story to Thomas Granville, about my grandfather and Abe Lincoln's grandson, both contributing architects to the Camelback Inn in Scottsdale, AZ, -- how one or the other of them recommended buying Universal Wire and Spring --that someday, Axion Power would surreptitiously team up with JCI.

    Thomas bloomed a smile, and added he had once stayed at the Camelback Inn.

    But...of course, he couldn't comment.

    Class 8 Trucks -- Heck, I didn't even know what a Class 8 Truck was before this meeting. But it appears there is potential for the PbC to be used and could obtain as much as a 50% increase in fuel savings, plus have added auxiliary back up power for when these trucks are forced to turn off, rather than idling all night long at rest stops.

    Seems like there is some potential here in using a smaller motor with as many as 24 30HTs.

    Tim Enright is our resident expert on this subject, so I will step out of the way, and encourage all related Class 8 truck type questions to be posed to him.

    Oil Rigs -- It appears the problems with oil rigs is that they just make so much darned money that they don't care about saving fuel. Further, I'm pretty sure the EPA doesn't do enough regulation of particulates spilling into the sky with offshore drilling.

    Here is something new. Every once in a while a rogue wave hits an oil rig. These waves can contain the power to disrupt or uplift the cables holding the rig in place. The first thing the rig operators do is to get the drill is pulled up as quickly as possible.

    But, if I am correct, firing up backup diesel generators takes far longer than a PowerCube, to begin pulling up the drill. This is a key safety issue both for companies and rig operators that has some teeth.

    The PowerCube can respond in milliseconds.

    It is expected by Rosewater that once the first PowerCube is sold to any rig operator, the PowerCube will become vogue, and more sales will rapidly pile on.

    Mega C's 2,000,000 shares -- To date, not one share has been sold. It is not known if they will be kept, or sold later on. As unpopular as my scenario was received about these shares, I still hold onto the idea that they will never reach the market.

    PbC and 400 Amps? Testing And battery Stress -- I was astounded to learn that the PbC can hit the 400 amp mark. But it really means little. No OEM could care about this fact, as they are only concerned with 100 amps. Norfolk may need 200 amps.

    But I also have another takeaway, or question to ask our battery geeks. Wouldn't 400 amps with a lithium ion battery put the battery into thermal runway mode?

    AONE was rightfully and respectfully hammered upon during this conference. Thomas joked that AONE was once upgraded because a large order was CANCELED, meaning AONE wouldn't lose as much money. The more topline revenue AONE generates, the more money they lose, and the sorrier their bottomline will look.

    He added that he was in no way prepared to have a lawsuit because Axion shipped batteries before Axion was 100% completely sure they will work as advertised. Lessoned learned, at the expense of AONE.

    It was also discussed that AGM batteries do not perform as well in both winter and summer months, something that will not occur with the PbC.

    Another aspect I want to clarify is that I reported from the PowerCube unveiling that the PowerCube can respond in 250 milliseconds. The utility response time is 50 milliseconds.

    I did ask Thomas about why there had not been an increase in PbC 100,000 light duty cycles since last year. His response was plain and evident; no OEM cares about any battery that can exceed 100,000 cycles. That's already 8 1/2 years of durable battery life.

    The PowerCube -- What's great about having more boots on the ground this year was that it allowed for me to roll around away from groups. I had a wonderful, near private meeting with Enders Dickerson inside the PowerCube. The innards have slightly changed; it seemed there were more batteries than at the unveiling. But, only 100 kw was working. The full capacity of the PowerCube, a half megawatt, has never yet been used all at once. Further, I believe that the PowerCube is NOT running 24/7. It is not producing revenue (which I wouldn't expect this prototype to do yet anyway).

    What was really cool was to hear it shifting back and forth every 30 seconds or so, to flawlessly take in power, than a half minute later deliver power back into the grid. So smooth.

    Though my iPhone's screen is almost as big, watching the ups and downs in frequency fluctuations was exciting to see on the computer monitor. Perhaps the best feature the PbC holds over all other competitors is how fast the PbC can gain, accept or deliver a charge. In other words, the more, the faster the "needle" (say like taking your forefinger and quickly wiggling it up and down) the better the PbC outperforms all lithium, AGM and flooded lead acid batteries.

    Solar and Wind -- There doesn't seem to be any more coming from Envision Solar. But what holds great promise is that there are VERY FEW solar or wind farms that use batteries to store energy. In states like Washington, wind farms have been told to shut down for a stretch of time; there was no room in the grid to accept more electricity.

    It appears these are two other industries that have yet to understand or engage in the potential for storing generated electricity, to time shift it and then deliver the electricity later. I have no idea if FERC is involved with this.

    Bottom line is that there is almost and endless potential for the PbC, as well as other battery makers, with storage generated from wind and solar farms...already in existence.

    Capital Raise, Financing, and Forward Guidance -- It appears almost a lock that the next round of fund raising will occur during the coming fourth quarter. There was very little talked about this. I did, at the cocktail party, relate this column's concerns over how this would affect share pricing to Thomas, Charles Trego and Bob Avrill. Obviously, no one could comment. I did briefly ask Thomas about a "rights offering" or other cap raise ideas, but, as a lowly shareholder, I expected no answer, and quite appropriately, received none.

    Earlier, Thomas, at the morning Q&A, assured that he was very confident revenues were ramping quickly. Every single leader of Axion, all sitting up in front, all nodded their heads in agreement.

    This is extremely important: East Penn sales are ahead of schedule!

    It appears that as fast as Axion can make flooded batteries, East Penn is buying them. Surely, we would all like to see PbC sales ramping, too, but what I covet is that this big brother, East Penn, is helping its little brother hire people, give them work and allow shop workers to be properly trained for when PbC and 30HT sales begin to ramp.

    Sidebar Note -- Inventory: Remember that "small mountain" of empty battery casings I witnessed at the PowerCube unveiling? Well, there are still some battery casings stacked on skids. 62 skids in all, 13 holding 30HT casings. But nothing like how many there were back in November. It also seems that Axion is now having them made domestically, rather than importing them from China.

    I could easily crunch out the exact numbers of both PbC and 30HT casings, but to me, it really doesn't matter, as another casing order could arrive next week, or next month, an obvious eventuality.

    What was important, was to take a quick glance at the Clover Leaf facility and notice it held a different "hum or bustle" than in past times I visited. Seemed there were far more batteries being made, pushed around, of differing sizes.

    Al Marshall reported a huge charging room, lots of shelves, which I did not see in past trips.

    The Gen 2 Robotic Line -- Last year, we shareholders were allowed to gather closer to the Gen 2 line. This year we were cordoned off, maybe 25 feet away. Being that pictures were not allowed this year or last, I had to go on memory. Seems the Gen 2 line is running much more fluidly than last year. I noticed that there were more sensors, that the electrodes seemed to be passing smoothly from one station to the next, and the dwelling issues of the past, are now in the past. I did not time how long each dwelling time lasted, but it seemed to be between 12 and 15 seconds.

    Four people were working the line on this day. In the future, it is expected that only two supervisors will be needed per line. I was assured that when Axion needs to expand and add more Gen 2 lines, that there is plenty of factory floor space to hold up to 11 robotic lines.

    This is one crisp looking line of machines, the robots provided by Epson, and then modified at New Castle. I was glad to see no lab coats, no hair nets, and though this plant is spotless, there is no expensive clean room needed.

    Axionistas in New Castle -- I want to thank all the Axionistas that made this year's pilgrimage to New Castle. It was simply fantastic to share a fine dinner at the Wooden Angle, to now match names, voices and faces with the Seeking Alpha cyber avatars. The questions all of us asked were far more valuable to myself, to this blog, and even to Thomas Granville, than last year's Shareholders' Conference.

    It was great fun to watch from across the room us Axionistas fan out, meet and talk with Axion leadership, existing investors, lurkers, and other investing houses present. It was also great fun to know that we had a bunch of us with attentive ears, active questionings, and feet on the ground, learning all we could about Axion Power.

    The mood this year was more upbeat than ever. I asked several shop workers how they like working for Axion Power. To a man, they all said they loved it.

    In final, I want to validate that Thomas Granville reiterated his view that Axion Power will strive into profitability during 2013. I was the only one of everyone present, to ask any forward guidance question; intentionally loosely worded.

    Later on, I tapped Thomas on the back near the end of the cocktail party, and told him that he has trained us well.

    I hold zero doubts that Axion Power will achieve a significant YoY top line revenue growth, in the area of at least 300%.

    In conclusion, I don't expect PbC sales to take off in the next month or two, but I do feel strongly that we are on the tarmac, and, as Thomas Granville began this years' 2012 Shareholders' Conference, that Axion is, "About to take flight."

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    LINKS to valuable Axion Power Research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

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Comments (196)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    More on SAFT/Viridity and SEPTA (including some pricings):

     

    http://nyti.ms/LRtyXq;emc=rss
    28 Jun 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The value data in the article shows what a tough economic proposition storage can be. At $800 per week, the Saft system will save SEPTA $41,600 in a 52 week year. I have to assume Viridity is not working for free, but let's call it an annual net savings of $40,000 just for grins.

     

    The SAFT system is a 1.5 MW - 420 kWh system., which means it has a power to energy ratio of ±3.6.

     

    In its new report "Grid Storage Battery Cost Breakdown: Exploring Paths to Accelerate Adoption," Lux Research pegged the cost of a 4.4 MW - 1.2 MWh system (power to energy ratio of ±3.7) at $2,000 per kWh including $360 per kWh for land and construction.

     

    If we pick a value of $1,800 per kWh for the sake of charity, the 420 kWh system would cost ±$750,000 and offer a cash on cash payback period of 18.75 years if no battery replacements are needed and NEVER if you assume the batteries will have a 10-year replacement cycle.

     

    Lux's 2022 cost for such a system is about $950 for the batteries excluding land and construction. That would take the payback period down to something in the 10-year range, assuming the batteries last that long.
    28 Jun 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, One of the prior news articles pointed out Viridity was getting 30% of the savings.
    28 Jun 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I recalled reading that number in the comments but thought it would be easier to ignore that cost to illustrate the difficulty of getting storage to a point where it's a paying proposition without aggregating several different value streams.
    28 Jun 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Understood. And even if it's savings that doesn't go back to the state, it's still more efficient than a ton of other things the state is doing to improve efficiency. And yet looking with private investment glasses on. Well it was already not great.
    28 Jun 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    Umm, am I missing something here. If not, re-visiting the article may be worthwhile. As I read the report, it indicates a reduction in power purchases by $90K - $150K per year PLUS revenues of $75K - $250K annually to be shared 70/30 with Viridity Energy. That is, Viridity Energy's compensation is derived from participation in revenues only. Per the article,
    <
    Gillespie said SEPTA expects the one unit to reduce its power purchases by $90,000 to $150,000 a year, and to earn $75,000 to $250,000 a year by selling into PJM's energy markets. Viridity gets to keep 30 percent of the revenue from PJM, he said.
    <

     

    Using the lower bound values on ranges given, I calculate estimated minimum weekly net benefit (cost reduction + net revenue) of $2,740 and annual return of $142,500.

     

    Use of PbCs instead of Li-ion batteries should shorten payback periods through lower battery consts and further reduction in power consumption (and energy purchase or increase energy sales) through reduced energy use for battery temperature control and shorten payback periods
    28 Jun 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ..."Use of PbCs instead of Li-ion batteries should shorten payback periods ... further reduction in power consumption ... shorten payback periods"

     

    Wouldn't it be nice if the PbC was given the chance to see if this is true?
    28 Jun 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    JP: I respectfully suggest you may want to revisit your costs (which left me in left field!).

     

    D-inv: Thanks for your comment. Tonight, I had intended to run my own numbers, based on what the article stated.

     

    For a minute there, I was reading a number crunch that made me pause...and then how think how in the world is the PowerCube going to improve over this SEPTA/SAFT/Viridity deal to where there would be a decent return on investment?

     

    Thanks for explaining, because at first blush earlier today I was calculating a potential 5 to 6 year ROI, at current electricity rates.

     

    I can live with the PowerCube having a ROI of six years. But not 18!

     

    I'd be willing to bet that right now it can be figured out pretty closely to what a PowerCube will "pay back" annually. Certainly, Viridity knows.

     

    But...we still have the FERC wild card.

     

    28 Jun 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    Actually, it looks to me like the article just may present a strong case for organizing private partnerships to finance and install similar PbC-reliant energy recovery/feedback systems on other electrofied rail transit agencies. Possible candidates would, I suppose, include Boston, NY, Chicago, DC, SF.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: The transit market-niche alone is huge. Maybe 20 or 30 APCs ago, we were talking about all the transit authorities there are nation-wide, which all should be looking for ways to capture wasted electricity, and then used it, or sell it back into the grid.

     

    I don't know how "old" this niche-market is, from a regenerative braking standpoint. Surely, lots of TAs are already capturing electricity.

     

    But it does appear that many battery makers are zeroing in now, making me believe that this niche-market is a pretty "new" market, because of better batteries coming out, and better battery management systems.

     

    Axion Power could likely make enough batteries for this application right now, without having to do very much expansion, if any at all.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    Do we have any idea as to what it would take to equip a Class 8 rig to fully utilize the current Pbc technology? Surely there is a significant cost to reconfigure the rig? I wonder if Axion would underwrite the cost of a dozen rigs as a real world test?

     

    Why not?
    28 Jun 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I was just going by the fifth paragraph of the article you linked above which said:

     

    "Jim McDowall, the business development manager at Saft, which built the battery, said the combination of energy storage plus grid balancing would make the project profitable. The nine megawatt-hours cost about $90 each, he said, which would put the weekly savings in the range of $800."

     

    If there's more that I missed I'll be happy to revisit.
    28 Jun 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    AlbertInBermuda: "if Axion would underwrite the cost of a dozen rigs as a real world test".

     

    I hope not. It's high-risk with a lot of competing technologies and several larger players addressing trucks in various ways. everything from NG conversion to micro-turbines to hydraulic enenergy storage, ...

     

    And as if that wasn't enough, all the money could be spent and we drop into "The Great Recession 2.0", due at you door any time now, and the trucking industry tightens up big time. So even if they liked us, they might not buy us.

     

    I think the company that undertakes that sort of experiment has to have some "heft" to withstand the cost if it doesn't pay off.

     

    A case of "picking your battles", IMO.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Jun 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3128) | Send Message
     
    Albert, there are a lot of issues on what even "fully utilize" PbC would mean on a truck. The cost (and legal liability) are high, there are very strong competitors, and Axion does not (in my opinion) have the technical expertise to do it.

     

    If someone like Caterpillar or Eaton said "Hey, let us buy some batteries so we can test them," I assume Axion would be highly enthusiastic. If I was management, I would NOT try to donate them; a full test is probably seven digits of custom engineering, and the battery cost is trivial in the whole picture.
    28 Jun 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    My bad, JP. I was working with data reported in the Philly Inquirer article vs that in the NYTimes blog article. The blog article is pretty clear in addressing only energy cost savings -- 9 MWh at $90 per MWh. The Inquirer article addresses energy sales revenue as well as energy cost savings.
    28 Jun 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Sorry but I don't agree.

     

    I think that many who monitor this site are desperate for a practical application of this product that will justify their commitment both financially and intellectually.

     

    But I yield because I have not the slightest idea what the cost would be and I certainly would not want valuable resources to be diverted from the ultimate goal.
    28 Jun 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (509) | Send Message
     
    Rick: There is nothing to gain from using Axion batteries in some sort of hybrid powertrain for over the road trucks because fuel saving only occurs with start stop duty cycles, ie., urban pickup and delivery trucks. It is possible that class 8 trucks that are used for local delivery could save fuel with a hybrid system. I see a lot of local delivery being done by huge semi trucks.

     

    There may be a saving for hotel loads, ie., AC in summer and heating in winter when the driver takes a break at a truck stop. Right now this is done by running the engine at idle. Obviously a waste of Diesel fuel.

     

    Another problem is that over the road trucks are very sensitive to weight. OTR trucks are continually weighed at truck scale stations and pulled over for weight checks by State DOT inspectors who carry portable scales. Fines for being overweight are huge. Every 30HT battery means 93.5 lbs less cargo an OTR truck can carry. That has to be added into the economic calculation,
    28 Jun 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Osterix: a hybrid powertrain isn't just about capturing the kinetic energy, its also about reducing the displacement of the engine and replacing the transmission with a variable speed motor. The small engine runs at a constant (most efficient) speed to power a generator and the batteries store excess power needed for the boost needed getting the wheels rolling and help over the hills. Storing the kinetic energy is a bonus.

     

    Vani's presentation showed a hybrid option of 20-40 batteries and a anti-idle option for 4-6 batteries. This tells me that they are looking at both because if you are sitting on 20-40 batteries you are not going to need 4-6.

     

    Out of all the class 8 trucks on the road, very few of them are grossed out. There are some applications that never come close to 80k. Those doubles you see going down the road are one of them. That's terminal-to-terminal LTL (less than truckload). The only time those boxes are full is around Christmas time and even then I doubt they would be grossed out. A box full of dog food would gross a vehicle out. Box box full of paper towels would not come close.

     

    My truck is currently 6k heavier than most tractors and I have not given up any loads of any value. If adding another 3k (73*40) worth of batteries would save me just 1 mpg I would do it in a heart beat. At minimum a truck logs 120,000 miles a year and the difference between 6 and 7 mpg is 2850 gallons and at $3.50 a gallon that's $9,975 in raw profit which would require around $25k in gross revenue to earn otherwise. The loads that would gross me out don't pay anymore than the lighter ones.

     

    There are lots of room for gains in a hybrid truck but its about picking the right applications. The trucking industry is pretty diverse so one solution will not fit all applications...
    29 Jun 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    Tim, thanks for the education on long haul trucking.
    29 Jun 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Tim, really excellent job there. Vast potential in that market I would think, for major fuel savings, pollution savings, and for us... in time...
    29 Jun 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tim,
    Good breakdown. A few (10 maybe?) years ago the driving magazines were running a story of how the Army and Volvo were teaming up to develop a hybrid class 8. Can't find anything on the internet about it, even the original articles.
    29 Jun 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, doubt I will ever hit the break even in the info exchange in this forum but it's nice to have something to contribute.

     

    I believe all the OEM's are working on hybrid versions. As mentioned by Osterix, they are starting where is makes most sense and that is the local delivery vehicles. There are also many non-OEM's working on solutions. I am also looking for something a little more passive to add to our truck. Storage opens new doors...
    29 Jun 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (509) | Send Message
     
    Tim: I plead ignorance about the economics of class 8 OTR trucks. I just assumed weight was a big factor because I see so many weighing stations when I travel. I would like to see any new market for Axion batteries, but I don't see where it works under current conditions. As I opinionated elsewhere, I think gasoline and Diesel fuel are still too cheap. This means that the payback period is too long.

     

    I am much more familiar with the economics of medium duty delivery trucks. Anyone can buy medium duty delivery trucks with hybrid powertrains right now but no one is breaking down the doors of dealerships. UPS and FedEx and other large fleet operators are buying limited quantities but these purchases all involve some sort of government subsidy from the Federal, state and city governments or combinations of these. As straight commercial deals they don't make sense.

     

    A step van in the 14k to 20k GVW range with a conventional Diesel powertrain costs about $55,000. From what I have been able to determine, an electric hybrid costs about $90 to $100,000. It is very hard to find out actual selling prices because all sorts of deals are made by both dealers and manufacturers. That means a premium of $35 to $40,000. This involves using Lithium-ion batteries. Axion batteries are supposedly one third the cost so there would be considerable saving there but a hybrid powertrain for a class 8 would be considerably more expensive than for a step van I am sure.

     

    Where I live Diesel hit between $4.09 and $4.19 a gallon this Spring. Even at those prices I think it would take many years to earn back the cost of an Axion battery based hybrid electric powertrain. Saving 2850 gallons, your figure, at $4.19 equals $11,942. Admittedly a lot of money. But if you assume a price of $350 a battery for 40 batteries that is $14,000, so I doubt if you could get a full hybrid system for less than $35 to $45,000 premium. That would be about three to four years for payback. It would only make sense if you got some sort of a government subsidy. Admittedly, if you saved two mpg that would cut the payback time roughly in half, but at present this is speculation because no one knows how much fuel can be saved in a real world situation.
    30 Jun 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Osterix: Your thinking is sound, it makes good sense to me and in the end you could very well be right...

     

    The weigh stations are also port of entry where you purchase permits and vehicles are inspected. If you talk with the inspectors it is not so much about weight as it is about vehicles passing inspection. The weight comes from the days when 2 trucks would split 3 (or even 4) loads for increased revenue and could run quite a ways out of route to bypass the weigh stations and still make a ton of money. Today the cheating still goes on but its different and involves a single piece but I will save that for later.

     

    Diesel might still be too cheap to effect change but $4 a gallon fuel still put a lot of people out of business. The big fleets all run under contract which includes a fuel surcharge that increases as the price of fuel goes up. However, all the big fleets combined make up a very small percentage of the trucking business (less than 10% the last time I checked but has been some time). On the spot freight market the fuel surcharge is a joke and when the price of fuel goes up the carrier takes a hit because rates take a long time to catch up but when the price goes down the rates bottom. Point is that these swings make the value of MPG increase (pure profit) very significant .

     

    OEM's cater to the larger OTR fleets (UPS & FedEx are NOT an OTR fleet) because a large portion of the trucks start out there. Large fleets have their own terminals and mechanics so there is less of a hit on the dealerships. Likewise, large fleets carry spare parts so the manufacturer/model drift is minimal. Schneider is the Freightliner. Swift and US Express is Volvo... you get the idea. These trucks are good for 1M miles yet the fleets sell them off at 250k miles which is 1 year for a team and 2 years for a solo. Usually the team gets it for the first 6 months or 125k and then it is given to a solo driver for 12 months. Point is that large fleets don't have the asset long enough to recover the cost unless he EPA requires it or there is a subsidy. That does not mean there is not a savings to be had...

     

    As stated previously, an OTR truck will put on 125-250k miles a year (conservative). The MPG varies significantly but I feel okay putting the average to around 6 MPG. To simplify things lets say the average miles per year is 175k (more solos) which put the gallons consumed per truck at 30,000 gallons and at $3.50 a gallon that's $105k. We move that to 7 MPG and that's 25,000 or $87,500 or $17,500 difference. If we could get a truck to 10 MPG it would use 17,500 gallons of fuel or $61,250 or $43,750 difference. My point here is about the economies of volume. The industry rule of thumb is for every 1 MPG gain there is a $10k increase in pure profit (not revenue). Can we get to 10 MPG? I really think we can eventually in regions that can support it. We are seeing a solid 8 MPG now in convention tractors with performance modifications.

     

    My personal opinion is that we will not see it first from the OEM's. There are a large number of tractors out there with high miles that are due for a rebuild which would make a good target for the removal of the standard engine and transmission and the replacement of the hybrid combination discussed previously. What numbers are we looking at? Potentially every tractor on the road that is more than 6 years old (125*6=750) that can finance the retrofit. I suspect your numbers are very close so lets say $50k on the retrofit. A new standard engine and transmission are around $25k which leaves about a $25k difference. The ROI from a 6 MPG truck to an 8 MPG truck is a little over a year if it's done during a rebuild cycle. Trucks don't last as long as trains but they last a very long time. On a more personal note, this solution is not for me (just yet). I am looking to build performance into my existing power plant but more on that later.

     

    My hope is that this just adds some color for those folks brighter than me. I have no vested interest in being right and value all comments as we explore the possibilities....
    30 Jun 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    7mpg to start from sure sounds like a lot of room for improvement to be had (with the right hybrid setup...) I'd be fascinated to know if current mileage improves much on extremely flat, steady terrain...pure freeway miles... vice up and down hills, for which obviously a big engine is now required. Rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag must be huge at highway speeds?... or is it much more due to the fact that the engine has to be sized sufficiently for climbing hills? Could battery / electrical traction supply enough power/energy to allow a loaded truck to climb the grapevine, and then get away with an engine say only half the size for the flats? Again, sure seems like if so, the right combination could yield huge savings...
    30 Jun 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Notes from the SC:

     

    Up to 50% fuel savings...with the PbC, with reconfiguration of the 8 Class engine.

     

    That IS huge in the independent trucking industry. HUGE.

     

    Especially because of new and emerging idling laws.
    30 Jun 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Thanks for your comments. I don't know how the technical aspects would work, or if it is a good application of the PbC attributes. However, I have faith the New Castleodians have worked that out, or are working that out as they are making public statements. If there is a good match here between PbC and the market, this seems like a large and profitable market that is looking for solutions.

     

    My brief internet search shows some 2.4 million class 8 trucks on the road and annual sales of approximately 300,000 units. If 10,000 of those (3.3% of new market sales) were equipped with 40 PbC's each year that would be 400,000 batteries. I would not complain as share price could potentially move to .36-.38 range on this quantity of sales - so we have that to look forward to in a few years.
    1 Jul 2012, 04:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OPHXbQ
    1 Jul 2012, 04:30 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I guess I have something to be thankful for: I missed that movie - whether by fortune, destiny, luck, or conscious decision at the time. Mickey Rourke has aged better.
    1 Jul 2012, 04:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I put up the movie link originally because I couldn't find the Doors song I was looking for. Then I found the song and changed the link to convey the right message.

     

    The lame movie link is here – http://bit.ly/O5UBlE
    1 Jul 2012, 04:52 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Whew, that is better - the music, not the movie. I was worried about you for a second John.
    1 Jul 2012, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I remembered the title vividly, but was a bit fuzzy as to why I remembered it. Things like that happen to men of a certain age you know. I'm just glad that I finally found what I was looking for. Otherwise I'd have been saddled with the burden of a lame link in perpetuity. It's tough if you get a reputation as a *muddled thought leader*
    1 Jul 2012, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Just so everyone stays off o' my turf: "puddled" thought leader... ;)
    1 Jul 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (509) | Send Message
     
    Tim:
    Thank you for the detailed information. I will file it away for when I think about OTR truck operations. It is significant that 90% of OTR operators are independents who serve the spot freight market. That means competition is fierce and less efficient operators are constantly being squeezed out of business.

     

    I can see now why small improvements in fuel economy make a big difference. Right now hybrid technology is not ripe for class 8 OTR trucks. Progress is being made rapidly so something may change in the next few years. If you are still looking for improvements in your existing power plant, that must be where the state of the art is right now.
    1 Jul 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    86, My baseline at sea level, 70F, no wind, dry smooth road: combination empty 39k, 50 mph is 12 mpg, combination max at 80k, 50 mph is 9 mpg. Rule of thumb for aerodynamics is -1 mpg for every 10 mph over 50 mph and has proved to be very close. So, at 65 mph I get 10.5 mpg empty and 7.5 fully loaded. From here there is a multitude of things can effect mpg with gravity (rolling resistance) and aerodynamics in the lead roles. Today I faced a 20mph headwind while dropping down into the valley. - no savings there.

     

    The target cruising speed, the average weight and the region of operation are the key attributes when building a truck. Every engine has it's rpm sweet spot which is matched with the rear end gears to run at the target cruising speed (anything below 60 mph is a hazard). The engine size, HP and torque is matched to the lanes most traveled. If you pull mostly heavy loads in hilly terrain then a bigger more powerful engine will yield better fuel economy. If you pull mostly lighter loads on flat terrain a smaller less powerful engine will yield better fuel economy. If you do all of the above then you really need the ability to change this on the fly (working n this, more later).

     

    How are we doing on this? Better but still not very good. Take Oregon and California with a 55 mph speed limit with the goal of saving fuel. If the truck was built correctly and runs OR and CA only they will actually do well but how well do you think a truck that is geared for 65 mph will do? Same thing for companies that impose a 60 mph governor with the truck geared for 70 mph and then blame the driver for poor fuel economy (happens all the time).

     

    I believe all this carries over to the hybrid. A hybrid build to pull the grapevine fully loaded will not be the most efficient design to operate in Florida. However, just like conventional trucks, I think they will share common parts. I do believe the right combination in the right region could offer huge savings and 50% isn't out of line in the ideal situation...
    1 Jul 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Osterix:

     

    The 90% are smaller fleets and independents. Also, my information is dated (pre-2008) so I am not certain what the real mix is today and I have been too busy to update and provide links. But the competition is as you suggest which lowers rates and make it hard on everyone. My fuel is 25% of my gross operations and my piers, according to my accountant, is 44%. Unfortunately he couldn't tell me if the difference was based on fuel economy or rates.

     

    I am with you, the class 8 hybrid is just forming buds. However, frictionless braking and the PbC could move things along much quicker than the auto industry. Adding a frictionless braking system (regen) and you save wear on your brakes and engine in a big way. Another plus that is often over looked.

     

    And then how about the built in APU feature. A single hard stop and you might just have enough power to last the whole 10 hour break (okay maybe 2). That's another $10k that you can throw in to reduce the ROI because APU's these days are just a part of the operation.

     

    Put all this together and it really starts to make economical sense...

     

    PS The state of the art of the engine is being clobbered by the EPA. They are making good advancements but they are not seen because of the EGR and DPF take the gains back.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    "Report: Energy storage innovation key to solar advancement"

     

    http://bit.ly/M8OPRb

     

    Well...WE got something for ya! ;-)

     

    Question: Is it true that the PowerCube is ONLY scalable to 20 MWs?

     

    Is this because that's all the current BMS can handle?
    28 Jun 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    On I believe the first conference call this year, the ZBB CEO discussed that someone outside of the company had come to them with ideas on I believe (but don't quote me) ways to develop a much larger flow battery. How much larger, I have no idea and I don't think it was indicated. It was a non-disclosure situation of who it actually came to them.

     

    He also apparently slipped later and made a reference to Applied Materials in answer to one of my questions which was somehow missing (according to someone who discussed it with me) from the playback version put up on their web site. I never got around to going back and verifying that. They actually didn't put the recording of that call up for so long I thought they weren't going to!

     

    Whether AMAT is the one working with them on the much larger flow battery is of course a maybe and by NO means a certainty. They're only dots after all :-) Whether the ideas (from whomever) actually work, is also of course unknowable at this point.

     

    Interesting enough, ZBB's CEO once worked for Applied Materials.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Speak of the flow battery devil:

     

    http://bit.ly/MFRX2P

     

    "Wang said his flow batteries, with their higher concentration, more compact size and longer life, could cost as little as $100 per kilowatt hour, which moves energy storage into a more realistic space. Wang said the university is working to help him find a corporate partner who will take the technology to commercialization"

     

    And Argonne goes with the flow as well:

     

    "Argonne flows into utility-scale battery research

     

    JUNE 28, 2012"

     

    http://1.usa.gov/McxKFX

     

    With bonus lithium ion buzz points!

     

    "ARGONNE, Ill. ― Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory have developed an all-organic non-aqueous lithium-ion redox flow battery that would help expand use of large-scale solar and wind energy on the nation's electrical grid."
    29 Jun 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2758) | Send Message
     
    wtb: And here I thought "all-organic non-aqueous" was marketing speak for "very expensive". Apparently not ;-)

     

    PbC batteries use the cheapest electrolyte known, other than pure water. Water diluted H2SO4 (sulfuric acid).

     

    Seriously, I know nothing of the technology of Li-ion redox flow batteries. I just couldn't believe "all-organic" and "cheap" used together to describe a battery electrolyte.
    30 Jun 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Advill
    , contributor
    Comments (2329) | Send Message
     
    Well Maya....your novelistic virtues are well used with Axion, clear and valuable report.

     

    However a worrisome one from my point of view because:

     

    - The risk of failures and class action litigation will erase the Start./stop market from the face of Earth, no company will try it in a generation, this is in my opinion the major potential market for AXPW technology.

     

    - The railroad market and the cube applications are promising but small in volume your description was a "deja vu" for me as a 10 years former shareholder in Valence (VLNC) I saw how they were focusing in promising markets (battery support for Airbus, some Darpa applications or some London buses) but nothing important in volume ( and profitability).

     

    Hopefully I'm wrong but my sensation is that the new abundance of energy by shale gas and oil and the conclusion that peak oil is now 50 years away will create a " no urgency" policy of possible customers.

     

    Sorry to express my worries, but I'm becoming an old cow in this batteries valleys.

     

    Rgds

     

    -
    28 Jun 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Stop/Start is widely used in Europe already. It enjoys mixed success; however I am pleased to report that it works really well in my wife's 125cc Honda motorcycle.

     

    Regarding RR and Powercube to some extent its good that the market is currently small because that will allow Axion to supply their PbC battery with in house attention to detail thus ensuring perfect units to initial customers.

     

    Volume will come....hopefully soon.
    28 Jun 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Advill: I guess I'm stuck with following what Pike Reports and Johnson Controls have to say about the stop/start tsunami coming.

     

    I do agree, though, that a class action lawsuit could be looming in a few years about false advertising for EPA mileage.

     

    Honda, anyone?

     

    Then your comment about the "small market" for grid and railroad applications...well, thanks for the laughs.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Maya, The SS function of a vehicle is not currently in the US governments MPG rating. Their standard test doesn't recognize it based on the city driving algorithm.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Currently." Stop/start is merely coming right now, here in the US. I suspect that the automakers will be advertising the savings that stop/start will generate, probably starting with the 2013 models.

     

    Afterall, the EPA, a government agency, is "who" is upping MPH and emission standards of which the automakers must comply.

     

    I am not sure of any US automaker making any model where the stop/start feature is not an option (sorry for the double negative). Do you know of any?
    28 Jun 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Maya: But until EPA changes the test scenario the automakers can't claim (at least on their stickers) the gains from the s/s.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jun 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Again, this is all new stuff. The EPA probably hasn't even figured out what guidelines to use for stop/start.

     

    How can the EPA do any testing scenarios, when the products to test are not yet available to test?

     

    Just trying to suggest that when stop/start models start showing up more in dealership floor rooms, and since the EPA is advocating higher mileage and lower emissions, it will be then that we learn about increased mileage.

     

    28 Jun 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (509) | Send Message
     
    Advill: In defense of the future of Start/stop there is the following technical point. In a gasoline engine, as opposed to a Diesel engine, Idle is the most thermally inefficient point on its operating range. This is because at idle the intake mixture is fully throttled reducing its pressure and density considerably. The result is that the actual compression ratio is much less than the nominal compression ratio. The lower the actual compression ratio, the lower is the amount of energy extracted from the fuel burned. Start/stop eliminates the most inefficient part of a gasoline engine's duty cycle. This is basic physics. Check out the Wikipedia article on the Carnot cycle. http://bit.ly/NTGQqa
    28 Jun 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2008) | Send Message
     
    Advill-

     

    Think clean air and mandated requirements rather than just increased fuel mileage.
    28 Jun 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Advill
    , contributor
    Comments (2329) | Send Message
     
    Osterix, I'm a engineer and believer of smart solutions for transport, as a matter of fact my next car will be a Citroen DS5 diesel Hybrid with S/S system which is delivering a 3.2 lts per 100 km ( about 75 MPG) http://bit.ly/LAqG02.

     

    The S/S systems comes very fast into the market and I share JP point of view about technical failures in a good idea, remember diesel engines with Mercedes in US in the 80's?, it was a disaster and took 30 years to start it over in small scale again, so if something similar happens the future of this market could be null.

     

    Maya: My son works in Ofgen (UK energy regulator) in UK and as you can imagine have with him a good time of discussions about alternatives, economy, competitive markets, security of supply etc....energy storage is his responsibility

     

    In UK the grid suppliers are choosing basically gas turbine generators and in certain degree nuclear, they are investing heavily in the reduction of peaks instead of the administration of peaks via market laws.

     

    My point is that market rationals are focused usually in the cheaper solution (into the laws and regulations) available, having abundant gas in the future.... the battery solution is a attractive "special situations" solution.

     

    Thotdoc: Agree with you but again the economic crises relegate the clean air mandate to better times even in Europe where some initiatives are now frozen, as the Spanish disaster in solar energy or the hold of projects of sea eolic units until competitive situation of shale gas in Poland is defined.

     

    Regards to all.
    29 Jun 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (509) | Send Message
     
    Advill: Based on your bio, I assume you will be driving your Citroen in Europe. The last data I saw 50% of new car registrations in Europe are Diesels. I doubt if we will ever see a lot of Diesel cars in the US. In Europe people take much better care of their cars in general. It is a cultural and economic thing. For Americans, cars are just another throw away consumer good. Americans don't take proper care of gasoline cars which are much more tolerant of neglect than Diesel powered ones. America is where Diesel powered automobiles die.

     

    Even if s/s doesn't work out in Europe, American engineers will do everything possible to make it work here because Diesel powered cars are not going to happen here as a solution to fuel economy and emission standards.
    1 Jul 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    Osterix, you may be on solid ground regarding the "average" American attention to maintenance, though I suspect less so today than in yesteryear. The recession has slowed vehicle replacement cycles and people are keeping autos/trucks longer. And, the "average" has always included people like myself that view autos as a means of transportation, place premium on reliability, and fully understand that new autos sitting in the driveway (or in use) command higher auto insurance premiums and are probably depreciating assets.
    1 Jul 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    Many Americans are finally realizing what my parents taught me. Buy a used 3 year old car with 30-40,000 miles on it. The majority of depreciation is gone, insurance is cheaper, it is still in mechanical prime and the initial bugs have been worked out. I still can't believe the people that lease and build no value unlike a company that at least gets a tax write off.
    1 Jul 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stilldaze, That has been true traditionally but two years ago I went out car shopping and the 1 -2 year old cars were more expensive than new for base midsized transportation. Seems so many Americans goofed up their credit that they couldn't get loans for new. So the dealers were taking good care of them. I'm not sure if this was true nationally but it was in Rochester NY. I was itching my head when I started out looking at newer model used for sure.

     

    And I agree with the conversation. Americans on average don't take care of their cars. In my region it's hard to get longevity though. I generally only put about 80-90 k miles on a vehicle over about 10-11 years and they are shot. They use salt on the roads in the winter and they start getting ugly fast around year 8-9.
    1 Jul 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    In 2008, I bought my 2006 Ford Explorer with 24,000 miles on it for just over $19,000. Has all the options. Right now, with 47,000 miles, NADA Guides says I could sell it for $18,200.

     

    I agree, buy used, buy a car two or three years old.
    1 Jul 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    "cash for clunkers" threw used cars for a loop temporarily. Now we are seeing those new cars that were purchased, selling as discounted used cars in my area. Many people that took advantage of the program didn't think thru the higher insurance, registration and added payments during a bad economy. Prices of used cars in my area (Riverside/San Bernardino CA) are fairly cheap at the moment. We don't have salt problems here, but we do get sandblast damage to glass and paint in the Santa Ana winds every year. :-)
    1 Jul 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    That is one of the major benefits I have found in moving to the SE. When I lived in Iowa, you were lucky if you got more than 120K out of a vehicle, under normal driving conditions, because the hard winters and all the salt just ate them up from the bottom. I bought a new Honda Civic in 2001 here in NC. I still drive it every day and I have yet to put a new muffler or tailpipe on it. In Iowa I was replacing the muffler every 3 years. It's amazing how long a car will last when you aren't coating it with a corrosive all winter long.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, Interesting your "cash for clunkers" observation.

     

    BTW, I tried to take advantage of that as I had an end of life vehicle. Of interest, they didn't use EPA mileage ratings to allow vehicles to be qualified. They used some real life stuff they hacked together. As a result my extended wheel base van in one model year had better mileage than a standard wheel base van in the next model year with the same everything. I guess when you add mass it uses less gas. Our government at work.

     

    I did go out in the back of the dealership and look at what people were turning in. It was pretty interesting. I saw some stuff that I couldn't imagine would ever be on the road (I think they towed them there). I also saw a couple examples of vehicles that appeared to be worth more than twice what the C.F.C. government grant was worth. Anyway, it was an interesting waste of taxpayer dollars.
    2 Jul 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, I'm actually getting about 8-9 years out of stainless steel mufflers which is pretty good compared to the old 3 years cycle they used to have us salty road drivers on. Not sure a Delorean offers the same value though.

     

    Why would I ever want to move out of NY and give up all the great government services I get for my high taxes? I can't imagine living without.................. never mind! ;)
    2 Jul 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    I agree that CFC was a blatant attempt to pander to the auto industry and unions (what a waste). I don't know anyone that took advantage of it. All vehicles had to be certified as drivable with current registration before accepted and they were headed for the crushers (lots of good used parts were destroyed). Nice to know that my Grandkids and great Grandkids taxes were used judiciously (thick sarcasm).
    2 Jul 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, You'll get no argument from me re: your perspective on the value of CFC. It was thought out like far too many government objectives. Quick and dirty with little ROI.
    2 Jul 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    I wonder how much thought would have to go into bridge repair and replacement. It would be great to have safe bridges to drive those new cars on. Remember the Twin Cities a couple of years back? At least it would put people to work producing the materials and a needed product.
    2 Jul 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stilldaze, Well I'd much rather they spent the money on real infrastructure. But that takes planning and thus it wasn't "shovel ready".

     

    I talked to a couple of laborers at the time the money was released and they indicated they had never seen such an expensive waste of money. Lot's of paving residential streets that had no foundation with thin layers of asphalt. They appreciated the jobs but were even embarrassed for how the money was spent by an institution not noted for efficiency in the first place.
    2 Jul 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    How does that old saying go? We don't have time to do it right, but we always have time to do it over?
    2 Jul 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, Or as it relates to time only. Hurry up and wait. :))

     

    I remember one of my projects (still young and green) when the customer was anxious to get a production line and the VP of operations at the supplier I was working at came out daily to make sure we were going to make the shipment by the end of the month. We were working 20 hours/day 7 days a week and were on course. All done and running trails getting ready to invite the customer in for approval the VP came out and said' "It WILL NOT ship this month. Tell the customer you need another week". No reason given. I asked my boss why. Seems the quarterly bonuses had come out in the company I worked for already so they wanted the sales in the next quarter.

     

    My bonus, Tell the crew you're working with that the shipment would be delayed. These are the guys you begged to miss family events to support "The Team".

     

    As a turtle I always liked "Slow and steady wins the race". But we are a diverse animal kingdom.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    Thats when management should have stepped up for a bonus or company sponsored activity for the team and families. Good luck getting the team to bust a hump the next time around. Real managers are rare, real leaders are almost impossible to find.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Disgusting on several levels, not least of which is the blatant disloyalty to the customer. Which is THE cardinal sin. Someone should have been shot. This is why we can't have nice things...
    2 Jul 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3128) | Send Message
     
    JP, I keep reading comments there are no retail 2-battery start/stops in retail consumer hands. I assume that is true in the US, but are there documented retail sales in Europe or elsewhere?

     

    I've read (most) various papers and presentations you have linked, which are based on testing. I am asking about actual retail vehicles sales, date of introduction, models, etc.
    28 Jun 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The Gen-1 systems don't typically have dual batteries. The Gen-2 systems do.

     

    I've seen several articles on dual battery systems in Europe. The first one I found was a review of the Ford Focus in 2010 from one of the major UK papers. Since then I have have seen several more. I don't, however, keep an archive of article links to try and prove the point. Nor do I want to go out and build one in response to comments from a Tesla inspired troll.

     

    At last week's AABC Eckard Karden of Ford said "The only choices are to isolate most loads from [restart voltage] dip with a dc/dc converter or second battery" A couple months ago GM reported the same thing at the BCI conference, "During the auto-start, devices that you do not want to be reset must be on a secondary power source like (1) a 2nd battery, (2) a DC/DC converter, or (3) Ultra-capacitors." So far the only system that's gotten the job done with enough reliability for the automakers is a dual battery.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    voltage dip prevention team AXPW and DC/DC converter present the terror of vehicle electrification, champion of the stop/start and Ford's advanced engineering and research member: Eckhard Karden!

     

    it don't sound like an h was involved, but it was if anyone wants to google the doctor.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Interesting we have had many comments about GM and BMW, but rarely is Ford mentioned. May be possible that work is being done through European division of Ford vice Ford U.S.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I want to publicly clarify that I don't think you're a Tesla troll Rick. The comments you've been reading are all from a poster named Carnadie who is making a monumental pain in the ass of himself lately and I won't give him the satisfaction of going looking.
    28 Jun 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    and will we have an after hours trade of 18,000 shares? Cup of coffee in Portugal says we do. Transportation costs incurred by winner of bet. Offer expires after 30 days.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Metro, Almost hit send before I finished your message. Had to edit to rescind my challenge. Heck, I refused to spend other companies money on Starbucks let alone the cost of a cup and a round trip ticket.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I thought I was being extremely generous - being from Yorkshire stock.
    28 Jun 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    BTW, No AH trade yet.

     

    http://bit.ly/LPmavx

     

    I'd of bought a round trip ticket and the coffee. Jeeze, You drive a hard bargain. An Axionista for sure.
    28 Jun 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    "Eat all, drink all pay now't,
    Hear all, see all say now't,
    And if iver tha does ow't for now't,
    Allus do it for tha seln."

     

    A Yorkshireman's Advice to his Son
    28 Jun 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    C'mon Metro! At least throw in a couple of pastéis de nata with the coffee, Portuguese coffee is pretty cheap (and good).
    28 Jun 2012, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    It's €.50 a cup!
    29 Jun 2012, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Strange, No AH today. So on a day when they can sell 3800 they jump and on a day when they can sell 17000 nada. This could take f-o-r-e-v-e-r. :(

     

    Maybe it's now called the Quirky Trust fund?

     

    Need to watch pre-market tomorrow.
    28 Jun 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    If I were selling 10% of the amount sold in a day and everyone on a blog had caught on and were publicizing it to the world, I would change my tactics. It's very possible they were selling throughout the day. It's possible the MM couldn't manage the sale. Maybe they saw the share price going down and didn't want to drop the price any more.
    28 Jun 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh, jveal. But alas Q has not done that in the past. They, unfortunately for them, have to show their cards. Not that what they are liquidating means that much to them.

     

    I just pointed out an unusual event. Could have been an early beer?
    28 Jun 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I kind of have some empathy for Q when they are trying to liquidate as need the cash and are restricting themselves to 10,000 shares a day.
    29 Jun 2012, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think it's tragic that Quercus is being forced to sell at these prices when they paid $2.10 a share. It has to be even worse knowing that your own sustained selling is one of the key factors that's pushed the price down.
    29 Jun 2012, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Quercus is making a choice to support more-favored altenergy investments at the expense of Axion. Perhaps it is the lead acid element which tilts the playing field...

     

    At any rate, if they are keeping current with developments in both areas (the bulk of their dead and dying portfolio, and Axion, which stands out as both feisty and still viable to do good work in terms of saving loads of fuel and carbon), my hope is that they wake up one day and realize that they need to shift strategies, and sell off some of the other losers and focus on a winner for a change.
    29 Jun 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    TB: IIRC Quercus holds a ton of warrants. I think they are counting on them to net positive when all is said and done.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As sad as it may sound to us, Quercus is selling its strong stocks to support the weak ones, and perhaps money it borrowed to support the weak ones. Theres doesn't seem to be any preferential selling of Axion vis-a-vis its other holdings. It's more like they're selling whatever the market will buy.
    29 Jun 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    It pains my heart to know some of his recent Axion efforts went to support some of his efforts here. Spreading the cheer. I think awhile back he finally said No Mas.

     

    http://yhoo.it/MZlTW6;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    Of coarse he has bait in the water all over the place.
    29 Jun 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I'm not very happy with his holding of the warrants either. Nothing personal but I've had enough of the guy. I'd prefer a little volume to clean up the blood poisoning.
    29 Jun 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (4003) | Send Message
     
    Spray on batteries.
    http://reut.rs/NHOzUI
    28 Jun 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    One of the researchers said that full scale production will begin within a week and that they are already in talks with automotive OEM's and believes that the technology will be incorporated into the 2013 model year to replace the starter battery.
    29 Jun 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    That's an awesome opportunity! Where do I sign up to short the stock?
    29 Jun 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You are an evil man Deamiter! Sensible, but evil nonetheless.
    29 Jun 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Why?

     

    What is the application? Where would this miniscule "battery" be of practical use?

     

    How about spacecraft, they are very concerned about weight, maybe they could spray the battery on the inside of the space capsule before installing all the electronics, crew, etc etc. hey maybe outside too before all that heat shield stuff gets lathered on.
    29 Jun 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3128) | Send Message
     
    Albert - Energy harvesting applications, which use minute amounts of power for data collection and transmission. Energy is collected from vibration, voltage potentials in plants, small thermal differences, etc. Storage is in milliwatts hrs to picowatts.
    29 Jun 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Look, I agree that there are applications that produce electricity from unorthodox sources but you must admit that this storage option is a bit wayyyyyyy out there.

     

    One that takes my fancy is Innowattech in Israel but even they are pushing their power into the grid, more or less.
    29 Jun 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OBM1MN

     

    The future of marine? we no like the battery choice in this particular case, and notice no discussion of costs, but overall, it might open up mindspace for uh, a certain competing technology...
    28 Jun 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    DRich has been a proponent of the PbC for hybrid marine for a long time. Not a peep out of Axion in terms of any effort towards this market.
    28 Jun 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3128) | Send Message
     
    Focus, focus. As the pointy hair boss of Dilbert said, "Can't we focus on everything?"

     

    BTW guys, I will be incommunicado for about a week.
    29 Jun 2012, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Personally, I think that ship might be good advertising. I have my doubts about the economics & might be a rather silly way to charge the battery banks but I don't know how the system works here. The waste heat from the main engines is more than quite sufficient for running secondary systems. I don't know if the photocells are just make up in the charging system or primary for operations power.

     

    I do like the implication that harbor power is electric so Open Seas Drive might be hybrid like a Prius in hill country. Cycling those batteries hard would be a great PbC application. I also think that hybrid maneuvering & transit power will become the norm over the next several decades. The regenerative function is still a mystery and the ideas are interesting (practical ... eh).
    29 Jun 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Ok, I yielded on Class 8 trucks because I had no idea as to cost and who would pay for it.

     

    So what is your case and who is likely to pay for the experiment.

     

    Don't get me wrong, I am as bullish on the PbC technology as anyone who follows these concentrators. I personally have over 300k shares and if Mega-C would just start their share dump I would hoover up every one that I could afford. Preferably about $0.20.
    29 Jun 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Albert, my guess is the "experiment" may already be underway? I would find it odd that Vani would mention it if we weren't getting close to something...
    29 Jun 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    But at the same time Axion has not stated that Class 8 trucks are one of its target markets, nor until now, at least to my recollection, there has been no mention of it from Axion. I do hope you are right though that we are getting close to something. Or perhaps, it was a fast appearing target of opportunity.
    29 Jun 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) 6/28/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 13000, Vol 178419, AvTrSz: 4055
    Min. Pr: 0.3303, Max Pr: 0.3498, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3366
    # Buys, Shares: 25 108155, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3367
    # Sells, Shares: 18 69664, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3364
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 600, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3400
    Buy:Sell 1.55:1, DlyShts 12875, 7.2%

     

    The combination of low volume, Quercus and maybe Blackrock (although I wonder about that ATM) selling, Axionistas having a lot and awaiting movement, potential buyers knowing all this and that a capital raise is in the future, no news, holiday weekend, ...

     

    Any wonder why bid/ask went from $0.34/$0.3498 at open to $0.3303/$0.335 by day's end? It wasn't unidirectional though - we briefly saw $0.336 ask and got 8,020 shares traded at that price 9:57:02 - 9:58:28. But that's the highlight on that front - the next 5.5 hours ask bounced between $0.34 and $0.345 and then moved to $0.335 and stayed there from 14:30 to the end of the day.

     

    During the period after the 9 A.M. hour up to 14:30, the bids at the time trades went off stayed steady at $0.335x. At 14:31, they dropped to $0.3302/3 and stayed right there through the end of the day even as trades went at $0.335 (except for 10.5K at $0.3303 at 15:42) for the rest of the day.

     

    At least we had a little volume come back and the VWAP stayed above $0.335.

     

    Although we had almost 13K of daily short sales, the percentage was very low so I don't expect a change in the trend down.

     

    In a PM exchange yesterday I had occasion to take a look at a long-term chart for AXPW, which I had no done before. Every year beginning with 2005 it looked like pps had a swoon during the summer months. Maybe JP can add some light to this since he's been tracking it for so long.

     

    With Quercus needing to average >12K shares/day over 60+ trading days to get their 850K out the door, I don't see any reason for the summer swoon to be skipped unless we get some positive PR about the company. Let's hope Blackrock has stopped for the summer.

     

    Shorter-term, I expect continued low(er) prices. Medium-to-long term, sans positive PR, it could get worse, IMO. I don't expect any rapid move, but just a inconsistent creep in the wrong direction.

     

    My experimental charts have switched to the point that I again have to conclude that the short sales spike that I thought might suggest some upward movement is out of play. The traditional TA stuff supports this as everything is currently neutral to bearish.

     

    I think buyers are pretty much sidelined right now and we've moved from my "pull" scenario to a "push" scenario, albeit at a much lower level of pressure. That' why I'm thinking "creep" rather than "plunge".

     

    My strategy is to continue using other instruments to garner dry powder so I can add more when prices enter the "totally, absolutely, incomprehensibly ridiculous price" range.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "I had occasion to take a look at a long-term chart for AXPW, which I had no done before. Every year beginning with 2005 it looked like pps had a swoon during the summer months. Maybe JP can add some light to this since he's been tracking it for so long."

     

    Sell in May and go away ...
    29 Jun 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Ain't "window dressing" season beautiful? (TSLA) + 3.76%, (SNY) +3.70% and lots of others too.

     

    Oh happy dayzzzz
    Oh happy dayzzzz
    ...

     

    You know the rest of the song, right?

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    At 10:30 TSLA's only up .41%. It really looks like that stock wants to go down at this point.
    29 Jun 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/McDn6Z
    29 Jun 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    JP: Not unusual. I suspect that the heavy short interest and action I normally see suggests some ... "manipulation". If it follows form, it'll end around $32 today and then next week I expect to see the weakening begin.

     

    Of course, it's just speculation by me and it might break form today.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Well John, (TSLA) decide to thwart both of us - rigor mortise! Stayed right around the $31 range (+/- a few pennies either way) from around 11:10 to the close!

     

    I've seen it do this once before, IIRC. Usually it does an intra-day reversion to the mean routine (OOH! An alliteration!) from either up or down. But this is the first time I was watching during EOQ time, so maybe it's normal.

     

    On the daily, it's still dinking around the "I don't know what to do next" area. But there's only a ~$0.20 spread from a death cross occurring.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    WMAs are funny things because the 50-day falls pretty quick when there's a $2 spread between the prices falling out of the average and the prices going into the average. Without a pretty sustained run I think the odds of a death cross within 2 weeks approach certainty.

     

    Back in the late 80s and early 90s, the rule in oil and gas and mining was "buy on exploration, but sell on production," because things are never as good as the day before an overhyped project goes into production. From that point forward all the good stuff is fully priced in but it's a target rich environment for unexpected bad stuff. I think we're seeing the beginning of that in TSLA as the slide into the Trough of Disillusionment begins in earnest.
    29 Jun 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    John: Yep on the prices into and out of the average. I've been watching that and checking the tail and head price ranges. It would have to get a nice bump on the head end to off set what's getting ready to drop off the tail end.

     

    Next week should start to tell the tale.

     

    Just as an FYI, I ran some stats on short sales percentages ovr the last couple months on (TSLA) and two other volatile stocks (one of which I'm also playing to make more dry powder). All have generally falling short sale percentages over the last week-and-a-half or so.

     

    This makes me think that some of "window dressing" effects may be shorters backing out a bit or even covering, especially the way TSLA acted today. It made me think of very careful short covering, in low volume. But can't nail a decision because so much of daily short is just normal MM action.

     

    But it was interesting that there was a trend lower recently.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    This is going to be very interesting to watch. I figure a good five years of experience can be crammed into watching how this stock performs throughout 2012.
    29 Jun 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the number of rabid Tesla supporters will be smaller by December and I'll be getting nowhere near the heat I've gotten over the last six months.
    30 Jun 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    For the novice ... a short, interesting review of the range of inverters used for PV:

     

    http://bit.ly/QzF1OO

     

    Not a tutorial, just a quick note of various product offerings from one company.

     

    Related:
    http://bit.ly/QzG9lx

     

    a discussion of the growing? use of Microinverters. I'm no expert here, so I could have easily have been snowed by marketing, but I found it interesting.
    29 Jun 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Lux blogs about their grid scale storage demand forecast:

     

    http://bit.ly/KHMoPF
    29 Jun 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    "Lastly, growth will vary among grid storage technologies as the market shifts from one dominated by molten salt batteries to one with a more diversified mix that also includes Li-ion, advanced lead, and flow batteries."

     

    'Advanced lead', you say?

     

    D
    29 Jun 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "The nascent grid storage market is plagued by regulatory uncertainty, unproven technologies, high costs, and a risk-averse client base."

     

    -- awesome [insert sarcasm].
    29 Jun 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    didn't see it, but guessing (given times and sales at .33) 100K bid at .33:
    98K left to go ...

     

    Hard to be patient on such huge market up days ...
    29 Jun 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2008) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to get clarity on something. There was a discussion here that related to a Ford executive discussing Stage 2 stop/start. If I understood it correctly, Stage 1 is a cobbled together solution, that does not really motivate Ford to use a PbC, but that stage 2 stop/start is designed around the specific characteristics of the PbC. That to take advantage of the PbC a manufacturer must build an entire system of hard and soft ware and that Ford is or may be doing that.
    29 Jun 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you're referring to my recent Instablog - http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In general, Gen-1 micro-hybrids are pretty simple stop-start systems that may include some opportunity charging during deceleration.

     

    Gen-2 micro-hybrids will get increasingly aggressive with their engine cut-out points, include change of mind restart (for those who almost stop at those octagonal signs), carry bigger hotel loads and rely more on opportunistic charging during deceleration and braking.

     

    Both Ford and GM have put out presentations recently that highlight the critical need to protect electronic systems from voltage sag during engine restart. Otherwise radios kick out and screens go black. The only way to do that efficiently is with a dual battery system, a dc/dc converter, or a supercapacitor module.

     

    Since dc/dc converters and supercapacitors do nothing to improve the DCA of an AGM battery, they'll both prove to be unsatisfactory solutions.
    29 Jun 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Fuel cell car. Three meters in length with flexible seating seats up to six. Yep, you better be flexible.

     

    ECOmove-A battery electric vehicle based on bio-methanol fuel cellsclose to launch their first EV in 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/KI0Y9U
    29 Jun 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Any bio-methanol fuel pumps near you or anyone else reading this thread?

     

    I suspect that this is not the vehicle to take me and 3 front row rugby players outside its parking spot. Sad. On the other hand my wife and her yoga classmates might make out just fine.

     

    You choose your toys to fit your life.

     

    Please forgive but it seems to me that there is an amazing number of silly people pushing vast sums of money into highly dubious green transportation solutions without a snowballs chance in hell of ever being profitable.

     

    Whereas Axion has a best in the world technology but continues to stumble along at a paltry $38M market cap.

     

    Does OUR company need a rethink in terms of getting the message out there?
    29 Jun 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Checked briefly through the Danish language version of the ECOmove homepage. The bio-methanol is not in the first version. Some time in the future!, the user can change one or more of the 6 battery modules into a fuel cell unit. - So probably the bio-methanol fuel pumps will be ready then :-)
    29 Jun 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, That makes more sense from an energy storage concept. Still a pretty tiny ride but perhaps the Danish might be more receptive. Certainly more than in the US.
    29 Jun 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Yes, sales of electric cars are booming in Denmark. Electric cars do not have to pay the approx. 200% car registration + VAT tax. Despite this, I just read that in 2011 total sales to private persons were 3 cars (writing: Three cars). Not per person, but for the entire country of 5 million people. :-)

     

    Public services entities purchased something like 1.000.
    29 Jun 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hmm, So much for incentives. Maybe if they take all your bicycles away! :))

     

    Yet alas, I'm thinking that's a step in the wrong direction. Being an American and having done work for GM it did seem like a good idea for a moment! (GM long ago bought up much of the mass transit in cities and shut it down. This forced people to buy cars. Nice!)
    29 Jun 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Okay, I couldn't have made this up for it to be any more bizzare.
    Seems that Ford's marketing department may be a bit naive, but there is good news for the PbC.

     

    Today I went to get my front tires balanced at Massa and sat down in the customer lounge to wait. I grabbed the first automotive magazine that caught my eye (Quelle Voiture? --What Car?). While thumbing through the pages an article on the Ford Focus caught my eye, and coincidentally the magazine critiqued the vehicle's Active Auto-Start-Stop system. You can probably already begin to see the unfortunate acronym. The text read:

     

    "L' ASS Actif (on ne rit pas?) ne fonctionnait pas lors de nos mesures, par la faute d'une temperature trop basse (0 degrees Centigrade)."

     

    Translation:

     

    The Active ASS (don't laugh) was not working during our measurements, through the fault of a too low temperature (32 degrees farenheit).

     

    There was at least one other comment about the acronym in the article.
    Ford has both the customers laughing at the name and at the poor quality of the Active ASS if it doesn't work at 32 degrees, plus it seems the ASS will quit working completely in 4 months. I hope they choose a better name if they begin using PbC.

     

    Oh, and to get Active ASS you have to pay 500 euro. Also referred to in the article as ECOnetic ASS. Just too many jokes here.
    29 Jun 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Metro: An excellent article and comment for a Friday.

     

    Gave me a chuckle.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I still don't quite understand the disconnect between the obvious failure of s/s' current batteries and the lack of stated roadmaps to problem resolution, such as using PbC instead. Vani commented something to the effect of prospective cutomers not getting it. Hope he was referring to non-auto companies, anyway, but I don't know.

     

    Perhaps a eureka moment will happen and things will seemingly change overnight (lol, after only 10 yrs of hard effort. Kinda like a band that toils away in obscurity then hits it big).
    29 Jun 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to look for more articles in French on Auto-Start-Stop. They have a big auto press, and I'm sure the German auto press is active too in reviewing the systems. There should be info out there. If the auto press starts running negative articles on the functioning of the current Auto-Start-Stop system, I would think it would gather attention.
    Maybe a naive letter to the editor of a UK magazine inquiring about problems with start/stop: from William in Staines-upon-Thames.
    29 Jun 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I suspect it relates back to the comments about "asking the right questions".

     

    My take is they don't yet know what questions to ask to realize the difference and what they may be missing and risking.

     

    I see that as one of the major jobs that TG & co. are trying to address (hopefully).

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I keep remembering the bewildered response by the Ford rep when the reporters confronted him about a Ford Explorer roll-over incident:

     

    "B-b-but that was caused by the tires! We don't warrant the tires, we don't make the tires..."

     

    Later I believe Ford and Firestone shared responsibility in that one. But Ford was shocked that they should be held accountable for a part of the car with another company's brand logo on it.

     

    Best case for the PbC would be that the battery problem blows up with the European governments before too long. Obviously, nobody in authority is reading this blog or the many other places where this topic is hot...

     

    Axion obviously can't go squealling out its potential customers.
    29 Jun 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I think the big automakers are just used to ASS's not working.
    29 Jun 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    Mr I > "I still don't quite understand the disconnect between the obvious failure of s/s' current batteries and the lack of stated roadmaps to problem resolution,...."

     

    Neither do I unless the maturity of PbC battery products and manufacturing process has been oversold or under emphasized by Axion management. BMW, Ford, and GM are all familiar with the deficiencies of AGM batteries for SS applications and capabilities of the PbC through prior interaction with Axion (BMW, GM) or the analysis presented at the AABC conference in Turkey that JP has reported on so many times. Absence of a senior level marketing professional on Axion's roster prior to this year and a few other factoids that have surfaced over the past eight months support that perception in my view.

     

    I take Dantam's remarks around the ASM regarding need to educate potential buyers as a combination of 1) truth applicable to some potential buyers and 2) defensive deflection of shareholder pressure for immediate performance. Personally, I have discounted potential adoption of the PbC for S/S automotive applications to near zero for foreseeable future. And, I no longer expect a Norfolk Southern (NSC) order for OTR locomotive any earlier than late fourth quarter (if then). I see PowerCube sales for renewable energy projects and industrial behind-the-meter applications as prospective this year.

     

    Dantam's job of selling new clients would be facilitated by positive feedback on performance of the PbC battery packs in NSC's NS999 and the 36 battery pack in the Washington Navy Yard's Net Zero Energy building (NZB) project. Batteries for the NZB project were supposedly shipped in Q1.
    30 Jun 2012, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Automaker, regulatory and public awareness of the problems weak batteries are causing for stop-start systems is developing, but it's a slow process. If you think back to the 2010 ELBC presentation where Ford and BMW publicly thanked Ed Buiel "which initiated our thoughts with his work. Thanks also for the fruitful discussions and the support."

     

    Those two companies are the industry trailblazers in stop-start but they're just beginning to understand the problem, and they're hoping that somebody else will come up with a cheaper fix. So far that isn't happening.

     

    A similar situation arose at NS when they tried to string a thousand AGM batteries together to power a locomotive. They failed because they didn't understand how large strings of AGM batteries interact with each other. While I can't lay my hands on any third party resources that prove the point, much of what I've read about lithium-ion battery packs emphasizes the need to match cell performance within a pack to eliminate *weakest link* performance issues.

     

    You'd have thought by now that we'd know everything there is to know about the way batteries interact with each other. The reality is we're just learning the ropes with new applications and new demands that didn't exist a decade ago. Having Axion at the forefront of the learning process with a technology that overcomes many of the problems bodes very well for our collective futures.
    30 Jun 2012, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. More and more I'm starting to wonder if Axion's 'pull' approach needs to be applied to the next higher level, too. In other words, going mostly to the vehicle manufacturers to get the battery manufacturers to buy your product should maybe be enhanced by going to the regulators/government to get the vehicle manufacturers to...

     

    The difficulty rests with the way to do that. Axion could hurt their relationships with the vehicle manufacturers, I suppose, if they did it. But then again, looks like they have patents on the best solution for a slice of the mkt, so at least one road currently has to go thru Axionville. It would be hardball, though.

     

    Another is for someone else to do 'the dirty work'. Clean work, actually. Such as us. We've mentioned viral approaches, or letters to regulators, other persons of influence, etc. Maybe someone should hire a lobbyist. They're pros who exist for this very reason. Anyway, an interesting brainstorming opportunity. Bet we can get that Honda small claims court lady for free.
    30 Jun 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One of the best ways in the world to raise public and regulatory awareness of an issue is to write about it and keep writing about it. It also doesn't hurt to be right from time to time in predicting unpopular outcomes like the failures of Beacon, Ener1, A123 very soon and Tesla on deck.

     

    It's never easy to build awareness, but I'll keep doing my bit.
    30 Jun 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... Please, please, please ... no lobbyists (making the distinction between governmental lobbyist & a PR firm as different). A lobbyist without a sack full of money to make contributions with is as effective as doing nothing at all. Lobbying (at the governmental level) might work out to be good for business but if you haven't noticed government doesn't care much about what makes good sense for the populace. I tend to think there is both a coincidental connection and a disconnect.
    30 Jun 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you on that DRich. I know they claim to provide a necessary "educational" function, but I keep taking that with a grain of salt for a lot of reasons. I'm also *sure* that every elected and appointed official could easily avail themselves of *unbiased* expertise provided right out of their local constituency for (almost) free.

     

    I'm sure all they have to do is ask and they could get both sides of every issue. Heck, might even get valuable help in crafting the (much better?) legislation for a lot less money.

     

    'Course, someone in the executive branch would have to be willing to take the hit as the unemployment numbers were swollen with unemployed lobbyists.

     

    And I do presume a (partially?) non-apathetic electorate.

     

    I know it's an unrealistic pipe-dream, but ...

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: P.S. There is a potential downside, depending on what you think of your neighbors and others that might be willing to contribute their time. But could it be worse than what currently goes on?
    30 Jun 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    FYI: The House of Representative from New Castle is Hon. Chris Sainato.

     

    20 South Mercer Street #1
    New Castle , PA 16010
    (724) 656-1112

     

    ####

     

    Twice at the SC, I was told by Axion leadership that when companies approach Axion, those companies are clueless to what they want the PbC to do, and even more clueless about what they need.

     

    I found that incredulous, but also quite reasonable.

     

    As all of you know, we're not selling an AA battery that could be replaced by Energizer, Panasonic, or Duracell.

     

    The features, benefits and unique capabilities the PbC offers, almost forces certain markets, like the railroad, and how NSC is designing and building a yard switcher based around what the PbC can do. It's not the other way around, where Axion builds a battery to suit NSC's needs.

     

    It's already there.

     

    Same with the auto industry. A car best built, to use stop/start most effectively and efficiently, almost has to be built around what the PbC can deliver.

     

    Betting that's why we've heard so little from Ford and BMW.

     

    You can change the car (over years of testings), but the battery, though it seems via patents to be getting better, will be the battery, nothing more, nothing less.

     

    From everything I've heard, or read, it seems we have the Intel chip when it comes to stop/start. We have it all over any AGM battery out there. The coming 8 or 12 months is going to be real interesting.

     

    The automakers must by now know and fully realize that pure EVs and hybrids that get government subsidy just ain't working out. Now comes stop/start, and that won't work quite right either. I believe if it were not for these inane and hugely unsuccessful government programs, Axion Power would be way ahead of where it is now.

     

    Way ahead.
    30 Jun 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Way ahead indeed...
    30 Jun 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There is, however, a lot to be said for succeeding in spite of government rather than because of government. Nobody on the planet gets to take credit for Axion but Axion.
    30 Jun 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2304) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor, I, too, am perplexed at the disconnect you mention above. It makes me wonder what BMW really has up their sleeve re: their testing of the PbC.
    30 Jun 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    As it turned out it took them longer to launch this then expected. In addition the initial target markets that showed some interest/promise move at glacial speeds.

     

    Perhaps their current fortunes would have been a little brighter if NS didn't make such a mistake putting LABs in the NS999. They probably were less cautious given the money received from the government for the NS999. In the end the government money probably set back the NS efforts by about a year. Perhaps Axion would not have been ready if NS was ordering at the beginning of last year. Don't know if better marketing/sales could have moved this any faster then it has progressed.

     

    Surely a better partner vs Exide would have been good. This tech. is going to do well. It's a matter of who makes the money from the effort.
    29 Jun 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    --Jun 28, 2012 -- Congressional Documents and Publications/ContentWorks

     

    Rep. Kristi Noem was joined by 18 House freshman in sending a bipartisan letter to Speaker John Boehner, Leader Eric Cantor and Whip Kevin McCarthy today, urging them to bring an extension of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind energy to the House floor as soon as possible.

     

    -- Noem is a cosponsor of H.R. 3307, the American Renewable Energy Production Tax Credit Extension Act of 2011, which would extend the PTC for wind energy through January 1, 2017

     

    http://bit.ly/N2Z3yU
    29 Jun 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Good article on where the EPA and the courts stand on regulating greenhouse gasses:

     

    -- The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia issued an 82-page unanimous finding yesterday calling EPA’s judgment “unambiguously correct.” The three judges -- two Democrats and one Republican -- also said that they do not have authority to rollback the rules as it pertains to power plants and their carbon emissions.

     

    But that’s not the end of the issue. The plaintiffs in the case, which are heavy industries that include coal-burning utilities, will probably ratchet up the stakes by taking the case to the High Court -- a high risk gamble that would threaten to undermine their cause even more. That’s because the U.S. Supreme Court has already come down on the side of EPA here and it would likley uphold a key part of that undertaking, allowing the greenhouse gas rules to start up.

     

    http://bit.ly/OK8dFM

     

    ####

     

    It is expected that the Supreme Court wil not take the case until after this November's election.
    29 Jun 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Someday...maybe this will be what AXPW's three-day chart will look like (hit the 5 day tab):

     

    http://yhoo.it/QBGmEZ;range=5d;compare=;ind...

     

    Yeah, yeah, yeah, I only own five shares.

     

    Have a great weekend, folks!
    29 Jun 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's generally what nano-cap inflection points look like Maya, although I'll bet their time of pain was nowhere near as difficult or long as Axion's.
    29 Jun 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    JP: I should have added that the average share price for my 5 shares is $3.18. Now trading at $1.08 ;-0
    29 Jun 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Ouch!
    29 Jun 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Like only a pack of gum ouch (okay, another for the friction). I had those puny shares on the board because I liked the company's premise, but that all went to hell when seemingly every Chinese company experienced accounting "difficulties."

     

    The Chinese stock I'm more interested in now, which also had accounting difficulties, is A-Power Systems (APWR). Last I knew, and that was a while back, GE was involved with making turbines for A-Power's wind mills.

     

    Will be moving APWR back onto my Watch List, as the above article I posted holds the theory that the EPA will eventually win the SCOTUS EPA decision post this election, and the next article posted above has some freshman representitives pushing for more wind power subsidies; the bill would be good through 2017, if passed.

     

    Any "lean" back toward wind power in China and the US, maybe Germany, too, and A-Power Systems could be a 1000% gainer.

     

    DD, as always, and with this one, a gentle pace of tracking is all that's needed.
    29 Jun 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I got out while the getting was good a few years ago with APWR. Sold in the $5 range, while my buddy was fortunate enough to get out in the $12 range. I still had a 4 bagger from it although couldn't rollover the earnings into another stock. Used the funds for the most overpriced item in the world....Engagement rings. I say this quietly as my wife gave birth a week ago to our first. My buddy should have bought me a steak or two for what he earned from my advice!

     

    China was all about wind power during their stimulus, I haven't kept up with the stock since it was pulled off the exchanges a year or so ago.
    29 Jun 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I still got marks where the ABAT jockey hit me...
    29 Jun 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Congrats and a great move, Articula.

     

    Though I don't recall the details, APWR was a winner for me, too. Was definitely one of my top 50 to day trade.

     

    Makes me wonder tangentially about all the big trading houses specializing in clean teck energy and renewable energy stocks, and how much money they made when this investment-themed bubble turned south in a heartbeat in 2008.

     

    How much money did they make, versus how much money did they lose? No way to know, but I'm betting they, the investing houses, all went up significantly in valuation, before they went down post-Lehman.

     

    For instance, I wonder how much Quercus or Special Situations were worth back in 2005, then 2008, and now?

     

    Of course, several other factors would apply, such as rosters of who were the principle owners of any trading house, versus now.
    29 Jun 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    So IINDelco posted a link to an article in the last concentrator about how long an EVs battery will last. Turns out they are already having problem with Leafs in places like Phoenix, where the battery gets too hot because Nissan only cools the battery with air instead of an active cooling system. Anyway, that brought my question of how long a battery lasts in a hybrid, because I'd been seeing a lot of 2008 Priuses on the market lately.
    So I did some digging that brought together some realities for me that, I probably already knew, but hadn't put together. So I found the link below:

     

    http://bit.ly/NejpTF

     

    Where the guy uses a Prius as a taxi in Canada and has run the thing for 200,000 miles with no problem. His comment further down is what caught my eye. He said that Toyota realized in the mid 2000's that for hybrid batteries the best place to keep the battery was at a SOC of 80-40%. Makes sense, this is the "sweet spot" that John is always talking about for the PbC, but I didn't realize that Toyota's BMS specifically only charges the battery up to 80%, never to 100% SOC on a Prius. This is because the battery lasts a lot longer if the battery is kept in the 80-40% SOC and will basically run forever if kept there. So I did a little research, looking at Li-ion batteries for cell phones, and it turns out it's the same for Li-ion batteries. If you want them to last the longest, you should never charge them above 80% SOC or go below 40%.
    So now I'm confused. Toyota just stuck a plug on their PHEV Prius. One would assume that plug isn't going to stop charging the battery at 80% SOC, but is going to go right up to 100%, as is true of any other BEV that is plugged in. So am I right in assuming that, in the name of going as far as possible on a charge, and trying to alleviate range anxiety, the car manufacturers are letting you charge a plug in EV battery beyond the point that damage will be done to the battery?? Granted the damage is less than letting the car go below 40% SOC, but shouldn't the BMS be stopping at 80%? I've never heard anyone suggest that they are putting in an extra 20% battery capacity, and then only charging it to 80% to give the maximum battery capacity number. And considering what the batteries cost, it would seem very unlikely. But aren't they setting the battery up to fail more quickly by going to full charge? I understand that the batteries have improved, and are rated to go through more complete discharges than they could in the past, but the dynamics are still the same, as far as I can tell. If you charge a NiMH or Li-ion battery beyond 80% SOC you are damaging it.

     

    Am I wrong???
    29 Jun 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The plug-in Prius has a 5 kWh battery, but Toyota only claims 11 miles of electric range where 5 kWh could give the car 20 miles of electric-only range if they used the battery more aggressively. It's clear to me that the plug-in Prius will keep its battery in the sweet spot range without fully charging it or fully discharging it.

     

    Another example is the GM Volt. It has a 16 kWh battery, but only uses about 10 of those kWh. The balance is headroom to prevent fully charging the battery and footroom to prevent full discharge.

     

    Even Tesla knows that the average driver won't come anywhere close to using the rated driving range of 160 to 300 miles on a daily basis. It's the shallow cycling that only uses a smallish percentage of the energy on a daily basis that makes the cars work. If somebody tried to drive one the full 160 miles a day, the battery would be trash in no time. If somebody drives one 40 to 60 miles a day with the occasional longer trip, the huge pack should hold up – they hope.

     

    Besides, it gives them the PR advantage of claiming a driving range that they know nobody will use frequently.
    30 Jun 2012, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    So they are putting in more battery and not fully charging it. Well, at least that makes sense. I've just never heard anyone who's selling an EV mention the fact that you have to pay for a lot more battery than you are going to use because you can't use the whole dynamic energy range of the battery without damaging it. Not that I would expect them to, considering how much the battery costs in the first place.
    It does make me wonder, going back a long time ago to a discussion we had about why the NiMH battery pack in a Honda Civic was failing in heavy start-stop traffic, when this wasn't seen for the Prius, if it wasn't that Honda was letting it's BMS push the limits of this 80-40% limit so they didn't have to put in a bigger battery. The "fix", as I remember was to reprogram the BMS to run the gas engine more often, which cause the Civic to get worse than promised gas mileage. Now that makes perfect sense. Seems Honda was probably trying to control costs, and just under-sizing the battery for the Civic, and didn't want anyone to know. IMHO
    30 Jun 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've tried discussing the issue of battery utilization and the adverse economic impact of buying more battery than you use several times. Unfortunately it's one of those odd issues that most readers overlook until it finally sinks home that all the leading EVs come with far more battery capacity than they think you'll ever use.
    30 Jun 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    John: I felt at the time you raised good points.

     

    Anyway, I thinking of the patent that JVeal(?) recently linked that reduces the positive electrode (and grid?) deterioration and this A.M.'s posts about the SOC issues, I'm wondering if the patented technology also offers potential changes the profile of the PbC in one or more areas of SOC range, energy content, lifetime (it would seem this one is a given), temperature (but not an issue IIUC), ...

     

    We can surmise, without much risk, that TCO is favorably affected. If it expands some of those other areas as well, ISTM we become more competitive in more areas on a technical and needs basis as well.

     

    Maybe it's too early to forecast the net effects, but if you or any of our technically oriented folks have thoughts, I'd sure be interested.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't really trust my abilities with the nitty-gritty technical details to try and estimate the changes that might flow from a particular patent. My view is more lawyerly where each new patent puts another course of stone on top of a stout IP fortress.
    30 Jun 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    I suppose none of the EV enthusiasts want to discuss the fact that, for an EV to work long term, you have to scale the battery so that you don't use 60% of the battery most of the time. I must admit that I didn't realize that the new batteries still had this problem, and I just assumed they were building the batteries sized to the total power they could hold, not the useable range you could use without damaging them.
    So does anyone know if you can go into that unused zone of the lower end of the battery in an EV in case of an emergency? Just thinking that you are driving, you suddenly realize you have hit the bottom of your battery range, according to the BMS and the car stops. Is there a switch that then lets you tap that other 40%, or whatever the low end limit for the BMS was, or does the car just pretend it's not there?
    30 Jun 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "Besides, it gives them the PR advantage of claiming a driving range that they know nobody will use frequently"

     

    Except for the fools who are trying to tell everyone that you'll be able to use EVs for frequent long trips once there are more charging stations. By your example, that is the last thing you would want to do with an EV.
    30 Jun 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The car basically pretends it's not there. I read an article a year ago about a company out of India that was supposedly going to include some sort of "just this once" override, but I don't remember if it got anywhere with the idea.
    30 Jun 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    If they had such a switch to override the bms and squeeze the bottom of the battery range it would soon come to be known as "the bricking switch."
    30 Jun 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think that's a great term, "The Brick Switch."
    30 Jun 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    I bet you can find a way to relate it to Tesla in an article.

     

    "And for only 40 grand extra, Tesla will equip your custom vehicle with a Brick Switch. For those just in case emergency moments!"
    30 Jun 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "Powerful storms struck the mid-Atlantic states with hurricane-force gusts on Friday, knocking out power to more than one million people in the region and prompting the West Virginia governor to declare a statewide emergency."

     

    http://reut.rs/O25vZJ

     

    Man, wish those Minicubes were UL listed and ready to roll out the door today!

     

    Could this get our lawmakers attention about the state of our grid (and infrastructure in general)? I suppose they have backup generators at the Capitol Building:-(

     

    http://wapo.st/LXjn4Z

     

    Hope all the Axionistas are doing okay, though if you're not, I suppose you won't be reading this for a while :-(
    30 Jun 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Something important to read:

     

    Big News for Renewable Energy: FERC Rules for Wind, Solar, Storage

     

    http://onforb.es/LDJqLT

     

    Carlos.
    30 Jun 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "The rule takes effect 12 months after publication in the Federal Register."

     

    Wow. I know organizations need time to react, but it's just another stark reminder.

     

    And the stuff closely related to Energy Storage is a "proposed rule" ... wonder how long that will take to be finalized?

     

    Wish I understand the difference between a rule and an order ... cause I thought FERC Order 755 was related to some things the author was talking about in the 2nd half of the article, e.g. pay for frequency regulation.
    30 Jun 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The hierarchy of regulatory authority is:

     

    Laws enacted by Congress;

     

    Rules and Regulations adopted to interpret and implement Laws; and

     

    Orders issued pursuant to authority granted by Laws or Rules.

     

    If you can't have a Law, a Rule or Regulation is the next best thing.
    30 Jun 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Nice piece on Bloom Energy ... a little description of how it works, IPO speculation, some pricing info ...

     

    http://bit.ly/LDJXgU
    30 Jun 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall seeing any discussion of "nodal" markets for electricity. Could this be an opportunity for Axion if the model expands?
    http://bit.ly/NP8PUj
    30 Jun 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    It *looks* like they are just doing a better job, via new software and data I would guess, of selecting and pricing generating resources to reduce costs.

     

    I don't think it would affect storage issues directly, although where storage might have helped before it should still be an effective tool. Whether "zonal" or "nodal", distributed generation and/or storage resources should still provide benefit.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OPunGy

     

    I'm not certain that node has the same meaning, but maybe?
    30 Jun 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Regardless, looks to be a great resource ... for someone more familiar with the space.

     

    Might want to warn about size - I've got about 20Mb/sec download speed and "reasonably" powerful platforms and it took a bit to load.

     

    I'm bookmarking it and will go exploring as time permits - I might learn a lot.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    FWIW - Market oversight by "Designated Market Makers"
    http://reut.rs/N0vnUz
    30 Jun 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    That would've been a big "OOPS".

     

    I bet someone is thanking his lucky stars about now.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Monster Beverage Corporation closed at $71.20. So assuming the order was placed at market, that is a $62.70 per share difference. Take that times 17 mil. shares, and you get $1,065,900,000.00. So a big OOPS, and yet, only a 1/3 of the Tesla market cap. So many ways to lose a billion, so little time.

     

    HTL - Are these the same group of market makers that you discuss in the Concentrators? -RGH
    30 Jun 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    RGHolbrook: "Are these the same group of market makers that you discuss in the Concentrators?"

     

    No. They are similar in what they do in some respects but different in others I think.

     

    From what I can ascertain, they're more akin to the old-timey "specialists" than the new predominately automated (although manually directed I think) market-makers. They have a capital commitment and humans involved directly in a way that the more automated market-makers seem not involved. Other than those two things, I think they are similar to the others that I do discuss. And since they do have a capital commitment, just like the old specialists did, and don't rely as heavily on fees from the exchanges for "providing liquidity" I think we get the pluses and minuses that come with that.

     

    From what I've read so far, the biggest complaint about the old specialists was an accusation that they traded their book first too often, rather than just providing the liquid markets that were supposed to be the primary purpose for them.

     

    The current crop of more automated market-makers seem to me to be more beholden to "big customers" as claimed in the paper I linked some time back.

     

    If CPST is any proof, the evidence of my own eyes, watching it over years all through the day, supports this.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Knowing how much you like the arcane of order flow, here is a little article I think you'll like. It doesn't apply to Axion but might if you trade momo stocks.

     

    http://bit.ly/NQxyHZ
    30 Jun 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich. Several links discovered in the comments provided a lot of grist for my mill (likely to be further ground up and digested later on).

     

    If not for your link, I would've not seen these others.

     

    Thank you sir!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jul 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    So for those of you who live in Texas, and anyone else for that matter, can someone please explain to me what in the "heck" the TPUC was thinking when they decide to raise the rate wholesalers are allowed to charge for electricity in Texas in "hopes" that it will spur more generation?? As they say in the article, any hope of new plants being built won't happen for at least a year or two, but they are raising the rates just before summer really kicks in and the demand goes way up! Can you say "pay-off"?? About the only bright side I can see in this is maybe it will spur businesses to try and conserve more or try for some nega-watts. Maybe Axion should build a few PowerCubes and park them next to a few major industrial complexes in Texas with signs that read "Need consistent power...we've got you Cubed!"

     

    http://bit.ly/QITd8a
    30 Jun 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Lab Tech ... Texas is a jewel in the deregulation crown. We are just now having people awaken to a "regulated" charge (it used to be free) for a service connection to the grid. A fee that is OK to charge but the amount is not stipulated so it varies from a few bucks to the typical of $30-$100/mo. with one car dealership (I'll bet this business is not alone) being charged $5000/mo. All perfectly fine & legal. We have another charge of, not to exceed, $238/yr for the installation of "smart" meters.

     

    I could go on & on but no one out there thinks regulations is a good idea. To your point, Texas hasn't forgotten the marketing lessons that Enron taught and are presently being refined. I'm sure this will roll-out to the rest of the country for your enjoyment on roads, sewer, water & electric.
    30 Jun 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    I get the idea of giving a utility an increase that they say they will need to build something. But when you give the wholesalers an increase, that is in no way tied to any promise that they will do anything to help deal with the problem, and it may be in their pocket interest to "not" deal with the problem and collect higher prices, I just don't see the wisdom of anything Texas just did.
    30 Jun 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    It will be interesting to see how Tres Amigas affects the Texas Power Situation.

     

    http://bit.ly/KMcv8h

     

    http://huff.to/N5lyVC

     

    [05/27/11] "The market for this plan, though, remains untested. Texas in particular seems reluctant to open up its grid -- and its wind farms -- over fears of utility bill increases. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, moreover, cautioned Tres Amigas last March over the lack of detail in its applications."

     

    More technically detailed overview article from 3/1/12 including some changes since originally described:

     

    http://bit.ly/KMcv8l

     

    "Tres Amigas delays groundbreaking
    Company cites delays in arranging for construction capital"

     

    http://bit.ly/N5lANg

     

    "The $1.5bn project will be built in stages. The first phase of construction, scheduled to begin this year, will occupy 200 acres. Commercial operations are scheduled for 2015, with the initial power transfer capacity of 750 MW between the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Public Service of New Mexico. The second and third phases will be connections between the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and SPP. "

     

    I can't judge what will happen if it all plays out, but I can imagine Texas claiming the wonders of Texas deregulation helping to solve their problems (eventually) when it fact the larger factor was Tres Amigas becoming operational.
    1 Jul 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... What's happening in Texas is just a nodal mess but a very profitable one. I'd guess it will take nie-on-to-forever to fix it or maybe generation will age to the point business walks away.

     

    Here is a link to the history of deregulation in Texas in case you missed it.

     

    http://bit.ly/K3hGS2
    1 Jul 2012, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... Still interested in Texas electric rates? the joys of deregulation in general? Here is a recent column from a local Fort Worth Star-Telegram contributor & automotive reporter for FOX & Business Week.

     

    http://bit.ly/MyjmrG

     

    This is his home page and I might suggest browsing through his previous article on various energy, oil & automotive topics via the buttons on the right-hand side

     

    http://bit.ly/PaBqbZ

     

    Here is a link to a previous comment of mine that has some local Texas links to some things the TPUC is allowing the wholesalers to do.

     

    http://bit.ly/MYrtv0.
    4 Jul 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Interesting

     

    I'm sure it would be a far harder task to understand how much of this comes from the various factors that drive the cost of electric generation and transmission. Such factors as fuel costs, operating costs, state deregulation, EPA regulations, etc. Very complex indeed and that's just how they all like it.

     

    BTW, My sense it that this is one of the primary motivations for some of these larger companies launching their own separate micro grids. Businesses that have access to capital are not going to put up with this BS.
    4 Jul 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    A review of a KIA stop-start system from 2010; UK source.
    http://bit.ly/LMXXeI
    30 Jun 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning.

     

    Very bad news for some, but very good for others:

     

    Storm cuts off power to 3 million in eastern U.S.
    http://on.mktw.net/NS2FTq

     

    Excellent news for: Energy Storage

     

    Have a nice day.
    Carlos.
    1 Jul 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    My sister from Columbus, Ohio is still without power. Worse, her generator -- in her brand new home that replaced her previous that burned to the ground four years ago because of a lightning strike -- went on the fritz because it went on and off about six times within 30 seconds; something tripped and it would not start back up.

     

    Last I heard somebody was on the way to fix it.

     

    Point taken is that even a generator, and a big one at that, isn't fool proof.

     

    Sis just did text me and her power is restored. But there is still 500,000 people without power in the state of Ohio, and 250,000 that live in central Ohio.

     

    Sis's pal is out in her driveway, sitting in her jag, with the A/C on high while powering up her cell phone...ah, in her bathing suit.

     

    Some people need BOTH the Home Cube, and a PbC in the driveway!
    1 Jul 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. It's so dumb in such situations to have to have a big generator running continuously (making attendant noise) at only a fraction of capacity just to keep the lights and reefer on and comms up. So much better it would be to have a minicube in the mix, which could carry the load for say several hours at a time, depending on the draw, and then be recharged in an hour or so by the generator running at most efficient output...
    1 Jul 2012, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4853) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of trucks. Developers of retrofit system for Class 1–3 commercial delivery vehicles in urban environments claim 21% fuel savings for cost of less than $8K. Would be nice (and presumably less costly) if it read battery is PbC instead of Li-ion.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7al...
    1 Jul 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) 6/29/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 13000, Vol 145580, AvTrSz: 3551
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3439, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3360
    # Buys, Shares: 21 66090, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3393
    # Sells, Shares: 19 77490, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3332
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 2000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3350
    Buy:Sell 1:1.17, DlyShts 14400, 9.9%[17]

     

    [17] An AH trade of 13K, which doesn't show in FINRA numbers, is almost exactly 10% of daily volume through EOD, 132580 (FINRA's total). This trade at $0.34 (classified as "buy" with bid/ask $0.33/$0.344 then) seems most likely to be a short sale by the market-maker that accounts for shares (to be?) sold by Quercus. Excluding this trade entirely from EOD stats would move buy:sell ratio to 1:1.46. Presuming it was a short sale, not a "buy", would move the ratio to 1:1.70. Moreover, adding it to the FINRA volume as *not* a short sale would move the short sale percentage to 9.9% from the reported 10.86%. If those shares were short sales, the volume of short would move to 27,400 (18.8%), when including the 13K in both total and short sales volume.

     

    Working off the above note, daily short sales would be just below the "normal range" indicated by the 10 through 50 day averages, around the 21% - 25% range. Choppiness is still evident, preventing any guess that some move is or is not on the horizon.

     

    Volume remains low, below the 10, 25 and 50 day averages of 157K, 185K and 269K respectively. I had thought it might be coming back to run towards the 50-day average, but that move is at least deferred.

     

    Trade sizes are continuing to indicate that only retail is on the buying side and they are apparently loathe to commit much ATM as price remains in a weakening trend overall with $0.3431, $0.3379 and $0.3717 showing for the 10, 25 and 50-day averages for VWAP.

     

    There is some scant hope for a reversal as the 10-day VWAP avrage has moved above a descending 25-day average and the trend line for the minimum price. But other than that we are seeing what I've been suggesting so far - a creep lower. Maybe that will reverse after the holidays as folks return refreshed, invigorated and ready to act on moves they may have been considering.

     

    This stuff can be seen in the charts in my instablog if you're more visually oriented.

     

    Speaking of which ...

     

    After I put up the chart for 6/29, I'll freeze that instablog and start a new so that those with an interest don't have to wait long for loading. I've also got enough data for 100-day averages now and will be adding those in and looking to get averages for the buy:sell percentages in some readable form added in.

     

    On the traditional TA front, no change in what I think I see. Trying to creep lower, but support is trying to hold at $0.33. The highs are compressing though. On the bright side, there's two longer-term supports, one flat at $0.30 and one rising from the $0.25 lows that suggest support. But neither can be considered to have demonstrated strength yet as the number of tests are low (only the origin and 2 subsequent tests for the flat line and no tests of the the rising one).

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jul 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please proceed to the new concentrator ############
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Please proceed to the new concentrator ############
    2 Jul 2012, 02:12 AM Reply Like
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