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  • Axion Power Concentrator 123: July 05, 2012 208 comments
    Jul 5, 2012 3:44 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (through July 2nd)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (208)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Notice the bids creeping up in the last hour?

     

    We have "good sellers" in ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Good to see the usual buyers back after being mostly out in the morning. We're still firmly in a 33 to 35 cent range.
    5 Jul 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    MrI: and the $0.33 were certainly retailers edging out - 8.5K in the first 26 minutes, all but 1.5K in the first 3 seconds of the day. If we can discount those, $0.34-$0.35 holding right in there.

     

    Buy:sell strong too.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, seems like a fairly steady way to accumulate shares a little at a time for 1.5 to 2 cents lower than later in the day. Seems ridiculously unworthy until you realize that 2 cents savings on even only 5k shares is $100.
    5 Jul 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... It only counts when price goes in a direction that hasn't been seen in these parts in a very long time.
    5 Jul 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    I hear u, but if you're buying, cheaper is always better. If the stock were to fall another 10 cents, you'd only lose 8, or another 5 cents and you'd only lose 3. Can't change the direction, but can mitigate the damage at least a little.
    5 Jul 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Some Energ2 metrics.

     

    http://on.msnbc.com/N9...
    5 Jul 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    A new report out of the UK titled "Ten-year Forecast of Disruptive Technologies in Batteries and Energy Storage to 2021" polled "a panel of experts for them to rank the probability of success and the impact of each technology." A Total of 50 technologies were submitted to the panel and the highest ranking "disruptive technology" was, you guessed it, Stop-start technology with a combined score of 19.8 compared to the fourth and fifth place finishers – pumped hydro and lithium-ion batteries that both came in at 15.8.

     

    Surprisingly, the Ultrabattery made the list at number 8 with a combined rating of 13.7 and a relatively unknown technology "lead-carbon batteries" came in 16th with a combined rating of 10.5, handily beating ultracapacitors at 9.7, flywheels at 9.1 and lithium-air batteries at 8.0.

     

    All I have is the executive summary and I can't share it until I speak with the author, but everything considered lead-carbon made a respectable showing for a relatively unknown technology.
    5 Jul 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Yeah at £3,250.00 a pop I don't think they'll be handing out the report to Axionists for free any time soon. :)

     

    The numbers would obviously mean more if the underlying assumptions were attached.
    5 Jul 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    The report from last year appears to have a section on -

     

    Axion Power PbC battery presents
    threat to NiMH/Li-ion in hybrid electric
    vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/Nq86tT
    5 Jul 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Golly! Finishing 16th in the race when we don't yet have any "legs" is pretty damn good! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    They apparently sent their panel a list of 50 potentially disruptive technologies in six categories and asked those experts to rank each technology on a scale from 1 to 10 for probability of success and 1 to 10 for likely impact. The scores for each technology are a total of the two values.

     

    There's no detail on the makeup of their *panel of experts,* the reason for their supposed expertise or the number of participants.

     

    If the panel of experts is of any size, the fact that lead carbon came in at 16th out of 50 tells me the message is getting out, even if it's not well-understood.

     

    While it's highly unlikely that I'll be able to get a copy of the report that I can share, I may be able to get one I can write about like I do with the Lux Research reports.
    5 Jul 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Sharing your "membership" privilege with us where you can is truly appreciated.

     

    And as HLT has pointed out it's a pretty darn good score for an obscure start-up. Let's hope we get some legs sooner rather than later. :)
    5 Jul 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 7/5/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 103800, AvTrSz: 3244
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3461
    # Buys, Shares: 21 64550, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3479
    # Sells, Shares: 11 39250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3432
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.64:1 (62.2% "buys")

     

    Some things worth noting about today. The $0.33x trades were only 8.5K in the first 26 minutes and all but 1.5K were in the first 3 seconds of the day. Figuring those were sales by retail investors and don't reflect sentiment (as suggested by the rest of the action I'll discuss next), our price range was $0.34-$0.35, very tight as has been the case of late.

     

    Moreover, if we take them out completely, our buy:sell goes to 2.1:1 (67.7% "buys").

     

    Is this significant? Could be because it seems to support what was seen during the day (and by my newer charts). Looking at bid/ask only when trades went off, we see the open with asks of $0.35 and never was below $0.3499 (remember, at time of trades *only*) *except for an ask of $0.34 for the four trades from 11:04:34-11:39:07.

     

    The bids went a different way: they started (before any trades) at $0.33. I saw them move to $0.3301 and finally some trades (at $0.3499) with bids at $0.3302 *after* the 09:56 last $0.33 trade. Then one more time a bid was at $0.34 (trade $0.3499) and bids from 12:22 onward stepped up from $0.3302 to $0.3499 and back to $0.345.

     

    I'm reading this as two things: sellers with patience and backbone and buyers that have a bullish sentiment and doing their best to be bottom-feeders. But they apparently see little risk and figure this is a good price regardless.

     

    Had an AH trade at $0.345 for 9.4K shares, almost precisely 10% of the volume prior, 94.4K.

     

    If this is the price the market-maker gave Quercus, we can count on price starting (or staying?) predominately there or above until those shares are offloaded by the market-maker. But with our VWAP of $0.3462 (without the AH trade), it could be the market-maker just covering what he shorted during the day and his position could be netted out by the DTCC, leaving a neutral position.

     

    I'll have the new version of my intra-day tracking with the, hopefully, more useful charts up later tonight (I see SA fixed the instablog index problem) which will be much shorter for a while.

     

    When you get a chance to peek at the new charts I believe you'll see the "stealth bullishness" stuff I mentioned in an earlier comment.

     

    On the traditional TA front, nothing going on. Still mixed (stochastic trying to convince me it's going to pop), ADX saying down, mot of the other running towards neutral.

     

    Prognosis for the near-term is no big change. The sellers are "capping" us and the buyers are supporting us as they recognize good value with little relaxation by most of the sellers on price.

     

    MHO, experimental as usual,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. FINRA data delayed due to their file being wrong: reporting total volume of 33.6K when it was 94.4K on the tape and 103,800 including AH trades, as reported by me, ETrade and ADVFN.

     

    I've e-mailed them.

     

    BTW, I took snapshots of the ADVFN and ETrade T&S screens as part of reporting the problem. If anyone wants (to see?) them just holler.
    5 Jul 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I mean this with the utmost respect: you are one detail-oriented sob.

     

    D
    5 Jul 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    I'm not so sure I like this particular concentrator. Makes me feel like I'm in room A123 (Axion concentrator 123). Don't buildings skip the 13th floor?

     

    Anyway, ZBB closed a round of financing today for anyone looking for comparisons.

     

    http://bit.ly/MYiTxJ
    5 Jul 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "exercising substantially all of its over-allotment option to purchase an additional 4,591,287 shares"

     

    Is this telling me that they sold all the shares they wanted and then some - a sell out? or was the over-allotment just the insiders?
    5 Jul 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Often underwriters will request an over-allotment amount from the companies they wish to raise capital for. There are a few reasons such as taking care of favored customers if things are going well. Usually it is perceived as a positive if there is added interest and the over-allotment is sold. The inverse is if the full amount of shares are not sold from the base allocation. This was one of the concerns Mercy expressed.

     

    I'm sure the game is not pure and many things happen to put a shinny ribbon on these events. Big boys like Goldman Sacks will actually buy in at certain levels to support these events in numerous ways as it reflects on there capabilities.
    5 Jul 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    An underwritten deal means an underwriter company agrees to buy a minimum amt at a certain price, with an option to buy some more. So the underlying demand was good at that price, it appears.

     

    Axion's latest offering was agented, meaning an agent did not have an obligation to buy any of the offered stk. And the two agents did not sell the max amt of shares, although it was reasonably close.

     

    Haven't been following ZBB's capital raising--didn't someone post once that they've been doing more frequent, smaller amts than Axion? This particular ZBB deal was big, though, as it about doubled the shares O/S.

     

    Of note also is that the first use of cash mentioned is repaying debt. Nice that our guys don't have any to repay, with the resulting dilution, time pressure, etc.

     

    And I don't remember the discount to current mkt on the price.
    5 Jul 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, Mr I, Stefan,

     

    I appreciate your knowledge and the response. I believe the final storage solution will be a mix of technologies (PbC being one) and ZBB seems to be storage agnostic. Is there anyone else that I should be looking at? thanks again...
    5 Jul 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... ZBB Energy (ZBB) is on my list of technologies that stand a chance. They have a long history with Eaton and their Zinc-bromide flow battery seems cost effective. Others on my list of energy storage companies are EnerSys (ENS) & Exide (XIDE).

     

    One of my favorites that might interest you is UQM Technologies. It is not energy storage but REE motors. They are associated with the auto industry ... unfortunately, because of their early entry with CODA Automotive that seems to have gone by-the-wayside. They have their eyes on trucking & marine electric hybrids with a $38M grant and some fine motors in production. These solutions I think will launch this company in 2014-2017 timeframe. Currently they have an initial 5000 FedEx trucks to outfit.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    > DRich ... Thanks. Took my XIDE snorkel off a couple days ago and have been trying to decide if I want to paddle to shore or catch the next wave. I have been to the UQM web site a couple of times. Maybe the need an OTR truck for testing <smile>. Is the stock talked about on other forums? This Axion forum has really spoiled me with so many great "trackers". EnerSys makes some great batteries. My next purchase will probably be the PC1900 unless Rick talks me into a Gel battery. Thanks for the great research suggestions...
    5 Jul 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... No links, so this qualifies are rumor, but UQM is being incorporated into a 4 motor tractor. A class 8 locomotive. I would guess that it would be Peterbuilt. If I can ever confirm I'll link it here for you.
    5 Jul 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    DRich: "CODA Automotive that seems to have gone by-the-wayside"

     

    Can you point me to something that highlights this? having tried to keep track of everything on UQM, all I've seen so far says they are progressing with CODA and, last I heard, also *hope* to support CODA in their entry to the Chinese market.

     

    *IIRC*, the report indicated CODA was still in play and I also updated my little insta with the more recent news about CODA that seems to suggest they are (slowly?) progressing.

     

    I may have missed something though.

     

    On another front, "... but REE motors" - keep in mind that they have a DOE grant to develop non-REE stuff. With their expertise, I think there's a good chance they'll succeed, but much work has been done by others in this area and there is, IMO, some risk of patent-fences preventing anything seriously beneficial to UQM from this effort.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    DRich: last I heard PCAR (Peterbuilt and KW) were testing a CPST on a test track using Parker Hannefin motors. I would *suspect* they would also use the PH stuff in their non-CPST testing. 'Course nothing to stop them from using multiple suppliers during evaluation and/or planning stages. But I would think they would want to have a single "standard" for maintenance, inventory and other reasons by the time any "production" is started.

     

    UQM is being used in the Wrightspeed conversions of delivery vans and the like.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Quite true and somewhere in the distant past (2009-10) I've got some articles on this PCAR testing. Don't know how it is progressing.
    6 Jul 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    I remembered this event but I haven't followed CODA that closely since about the time they didn't get their battery plant support in Ohio. That's probably good for CODA, Ohio and us.

     

    http://bit.ly/NsHlow
    6 Jul 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Sadly, I don't have anything concrete to support my CODA "by-the-wayside" statement. I know it hasn't gone away but I haven't seen CODA showing up in the automotive sales data so I don't know how well the 2012 model sold or even if there is a 2013 coming.

     

    [quote] As always, both Fisker Automotive and Coda Automotive declined to comment on sales of their plug-in vehicles.

     

    We'll be curious to see whether larger media press those companies on this issue, or whether the world simply stops paying attention. [quote]

     

    http://bit.ly/NHW50T

     

    Quotes like this, the down trend of information & the general trend of EVs leads me there. The fleet sale to partner AEP doesn't mention a number

     

    http://bit.ly/NPW8IZ

     

    and I've only been able to track down a total of 3 vehicles sold.

     

    http://aol.it/O3E8OL

     

    UQM sells more motors to marine hybrid OEMs than CODA so I draw my conclusion.

     

    6 Jul 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Thanks. I took away that the AEP sale was a single vehicle for now - reminded me of "let's start small and see how it goes" strategy.

     

    I don't blame them with all the unknowns.

     

    As to CODA, if they are to have a chance I think they made the right move by starting marketing through dealers now rather than their "experience centers".

     

    If they'll stay focused on markets best suited to (P)EVs, they've got a chance.

     

    I think their China effort with Great Wall offers the best hope for some real volume for them "near-term". *If* they get that really ramped *and* UQM is selected for the drive train, then UQM would have a good outlook as well, regardless of the current U.S. situation. But UQM had better have a good plan in place to prevent the IP theft for which China is notorious.

     

    I'm off to read your links - thanks again!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    DRich: BTW, I've been running a small insta on UQM in hopes of having a single place we can tack stuff in.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Tim:

     

    The way the deal was structured was that they sold an initial number of shares which off the top of my head was close to 30M shares and if MDB sold any shares it was required to take all of the shares.

     

    There was also a provision that if the demand was there, MDB had an option to sell an additional 4.8M shares. So it appears that there was enough interest in the offering that they not only sold the initial 30M, but the almost all of the over allotment too.

     

    Just my thoughts.
    5 Jul 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Unique Strategies for Auto Start-Stop Yield Ford More Than 25 Patent Applications

     

    http://bit.ly/MYvfG3
    5 Jul 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LBigY6

     

    "Johnson Controls explains that such systems can function properly only with an “advanced” lead-acid battery, capable of handling the “deep cycling” requirements of frequent start-ups."

     

    Interesting that they did not say AGM.
    5 Jul 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    That's because, Slide 81. They know they need improvement.

     

    http://bit.ly/KqgDwO
    5 Jul 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    A JCI presentation from BCI 2012 that spends a lot of time talking about the "white space" between current stop-start and 48-volt architecture is here:

     

    http://bit.ly/N102zk
    6 Jul 2012, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Re: iindelco's link below:

     

    I especially like slides 90, 97 and 100.

     

    Slide 90 says that advanced lead-acid = AGM, to JCI, and that they expect demand from OEMs for AGM to take big mkt share from standard SLI. I.e., big AGM demand is coming.

     

    Slide 97 says JCI is going huge with AGM. I.e., big AGM supply is coming.

     

    Hopefully slide 100 says JCI is open to improvements to AGM. I.e., they might be open to using our guy's carbon cathode?
    6 Jul 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Boy, You sure get a ton of improvement by going with a 2 battery system, essentially 24 VDC, and spitting the bus. And you're not up to that nasty high cost lithium ion battery yet.

     

    Now, Where to get an electrical accumulator that can capture a higher percentage of the energy from the brakes (charge acceptance) and can sit with enough room to accept all that additional energy from a longer braking cycle (PSOC) while not degrading?

     

    Hey Bosch, What's next?

     

    "Engineers are now developing the system to enable it to switch the engine off earlier, when the vehicle is about to stop. If, say, a driver has already depressed the clutch and is braking, the engine could be switched off before the car reaches a standstill.

     

    A further step could be to develop a start/stop ‘coasting mode’ in which the engine is switched off while the car is cruising, with the driver’s foot off the accelerator. The Porsche Cayenne Hybrid, for example, has this mode integrated into its hybrid drive-train. Installing free-wheeling to petrol and diesel vehicles could be next."

     

    http://bit.ly/Ltoj5J

     

    Oh well, I guess we'll just sit around and wait for lithium ion battery prices to fall. Good thing there's no legislation making this urgent. ;)
    6 Jul 2012, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Second video.

     

    http://bit.ly/LtpfH4
    6 Jul 2012, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    After reading the presentation, gives the feeling that JCI is ahead that Exide in the development of the electrification of vehicles.
    Have a good day.
    Carlos.
    6 Jul 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    From JCI Presentation:

     

    ...The 12V electrical system may, and in some cases, will run out of power by the end of the decade

     

    A question: 48V will be the next?
    6 Jul 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    I answer myself: Presentation page 9/14 says it all.
    Carlos.
    6 Jul 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Found the China overview slides 50-54 interesting.
    Currently 30% market share.

     

    Much investment there, as is warranted for such a huge market.

     

    Big consolidation there due to many small and bad actors.

     

    Is JCI "safe" because the shipping costs of massive exporting make it uneconomic?

     

    Or is it too early to tell? Could they steal the technology and then open plants in say the US?

     

    Apple seems, so far to have gotten away with it. Maybe JCI too.

     

    What's their secret? Will they stay "safe?"

     

    Even if you don't build it there, there are many stories about industrial espionage, though surely it's not limited to Chinese "agents."

     

    ZBB is making big efforts in China, and there's some angst about it.
    6 Jul 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Believe I've seen the suggestion we would do 3*16V batteries for 48V.

     

    So compared to a 48V lithium alternative:

     

    1) difference in space?
    2) difference in weight?
    3) difference in price?

     

    Might the first two be a bigger issue in "luxury" vehicles than we might suspect? Might the 3rd be less for a "luxury" buyer?

     

    In the investor day presentation slide 78, what's the take on whether "AGM + Carbon plates" is actually Axion product or not?

     

    If so, what does that chart say to you (and I realize it's their party and they'll spin the way they want to)
    6 Jul 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    wtb,

     

    "48 volt" systems are actually 4 x 12 volt batteries. Given the rapid voltage drop of bio-carbon batteries, I think they would still use 4 batts.

     

    1) Li chemistries have higher energy density, so would be smaller for the same energy

     

    2) Li chemistries have higher specific energy, so they would be lighter for the same amount of energy

     

    3) Pricing is not well defined, but the bio-carbon should be cheaper.
    7 Jul 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Since Axion can make the PbC in either 12-volt or 16-volt configurations and the energy requirements are not as critical as power requirements in vehicle applications, I'd expect a bank of three 16-volt devices instead of four 12-volt devices.
    7 Jul 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the BMW hybrid has coasting mode. Not sure if it's available in Europe yet but timing for the States is "this fall".

     

    http://bit.ly/PqnPgK
    7 Jul 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    My great white hope was always that JCI would buy us out for $4.00 a share.

     

    Just saying !
    6 Jul 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    You don't want a white knight coming in when the stock is sitting at .3x cents if your expectation is in the 4+ USD range. Axion has to hit a single first. Well a double, it appears the single is on its way.
    6 Jul 2012, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    When the dust settles, I think market historians will say that Axion won its first gold medal from Norfolk Southern. When the NS 999 project was simply PbC vs. AGM, I had reservations. When somebody found Gibson Barbee's June 2010 presentation that said NS thoroughly tested NiMH, LiFePO4, Sodium Beta, Fuel Cells and Lead-acid Traction Batteries before choosing the PbC, my outlook got a good deal more optimistic.

     

    http://bit.ly/JXgnI0

     

    NS was a winner take all competition in a multi-billion dollar niche market and Axion's already won it hands down. Now it's all up to the PbC.
    6 Jul 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    PbC = Jesse Owens
    6 Jul 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Thus my comment about the single being on it's way. The balls on the ground is rolling nicely (well too darn slow for us) into the outfield.

     

    Hey, So I don't have Maya's writing skills!
    6 Jul 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't help but to think of male genitalia rolling into the outfield...slowly. not sure what Freud would think of that.

     

    (I think your plural "balls" and singular "is" was the problem.)
    6 Jul 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    A few days without power does that to you, doesn't it? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Missed the ' and created a picture well worth missing.
    6 Jul 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): In case you missed the (potentially brief) expression of bullishness this A.M. ...

     

    Min. Pr: 0.3406 ($0.3450 w/o the "lure"), Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3491
    AvTrSz: 13007, Vol 182100

     

    But at 10:31:51, I think the market-maker put a 100-share "lure" out, but at the sell side @ $0.3406 (the bid). Why would he do this? Needs to cover short sales made at higher prices this A.M. and so trying to scare someone into releasing a bunch below the $0.35 level?

     

    Has a big buy order in hand at a low price and trying to shake shares loose to fill that order?

     

    Let's hope that effort, regardless of reason, fails miserably.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    There's been Tons 'O Shares avail at 35 cents. Will be interesting to see if the sellers, in the face of a lot of buying like today, raise the ask above 35 cents, even a little.

     

    Switching to the buy side, who's doing the buying today? I like it a lot. Keep going, our friend!
    6 Jul 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    You'll be reading about this scam in a few years. Al Gore slithering on to his next sucker rally.

     

    Green energy bad idea for pension funds

     

    http://bit.ly/NHV497
    6 Jul 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    "Line ’em up: The green-energy cars, green battery companies, green solar, green wind, green you name it: They are toxic to a portfolio. Unless of course you short them."

     

    iindelco - playing the devil's advocate, what does that say about us at this point?
    6 Jul 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Ahhh but the apps Axion has been working years to get in on are supportive of baby steps in the right direction that are happening based on industrial motivations and government regs. And they make obvious sense. Well to me anyway.

     

    The applications are not a risk for me. It's how much Axion can get and who takes the gold that Axion can get some piece of. Everything I read tells me it's going to be a pretty good piece, but I sure can't tell you how much I'll get based on shares owned because they are at a needy point based on their financial requirements. And as we see every day there is no sector that has more thieves then the financial sector.
    6 Jul 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    I agree and enjoy seeing your analysis. Thanks.
    6 Jul 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    With due respect Iindelco, way too many people are moving possible problems from early next year into the middle of this year.

     

    At March 31st Axion had $10.6 million of working capital, $8.5 million in cash and a burn rate of $1.7 million per quarter. My calculator says that's five to six quarters of runway. Axion is well funded through Q1-2013 and could probably push through Q2-2013 if it had to.

     

    Money is not an immediate problem and compressing the financing timeframe is unfair to the company because it doesn't give the team time to bring some of the many projects they're working on to fruition. It's also unfair to potential investors who know that the market needs another month or two to finish cleaning up the slop, but fear that the company will screw things up by conducting another offering before it needs to.

     

    Six to nine months is an eternity in a company like Axion and if history is any guide, management will make Axion's resources last as long as possible before conducting another offering. Axion was running on fumes when it closed the 2009 offering. It would have been out of cash by the end of Q-1 it it hadn't closed the February offering.

     

    Management and the original core stockholders are all in for an average of $1 to $2 a share. The last thing the board wants to do is take another bullet by raising money too soon.
    6 Jul 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Understood John and it's not my intent to make money an issue based on Axion's current business needs. I am more inclined to wonder how they are going to scale when they get some of the contracts they are working toward. It is true that having good contracts in hand are a valuable asset during capital raise efforts. That being said I don't see the world economy getting better in the foreseeable future and people that are willing to support start-up's always want whatever advantages they can get.

     

    Thank you as always for putting the facts concerning their current capital needs and their business needs on the table for the coming year. I often lose site of the fact that there are people at different levels of participation in this form and I need to respect that.
    6 Jul 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Thinking outside the box ...

     

    Our cathodes are designed to be usable in any existing AGM line, right?

     

    So, we place a tolling contract with East Penn (uh, well they might not have the capacity?), XIDE or JCI or others? We ship them electrodes and they assemble.

     

    Yes, we need to have QC procedures and all the "Is" dotted and the "Ts" crossed, but ...

     

    Whatcha think?

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Sounds like the business plan that has been in place for years and the one I'd love to see executed or at least mentioned with an announcement of a manufacturing partnership. One of my personal milestones that will grab Mr. Markets' attention.
    6 Jul 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The typical progression in development stage companies is to land a contract that requires a facilities expansion and then raise the money to fund the expansion.

     

    Axion has a tougher road than many because it's potential customers are massive and want to speak for themselves, but Axion's board has a long history of not spending a penny before they need to.

     

    If TG gets on an earnings call in mid-November, for example, and says "we need to raise $XX million to add five or ten new electrode lines for contracts that will be going into production over the next six months," the stockholders will be in the same position as a guy who's wife just said "you're going to be a daddy." We won't necessarily know whether the baby will be a boy or a girl, but we'll know a baby is on the way.

     

    The worst psychological impact of a period like we've lived through for the last couple years is that a *Noah syndrome* sets in where it feels like the rain will never stop and the fog will never clear.

     

    Whether we want to believe it or not, the rain of selling shareholders will end within a couple months.

     

    More importantly, the fog surrounding Axion's customer relationships is clearing. What were vague hints of opportunities a few months ago are finally taking shape and everything we know today says the murky will become increasingly visible over the next few months.

     

    I see no reasonable chance that Axion will need huge amounts of capital for plant expansion that nobody outside the company knows about.
    6 Jul 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    HTL, We can think of many ways to use other organizations money but they all have cost/reward ratios. I can't begin to think of how these types of arrangements might play out. Getting more interest/commitment toward the product of coarse broadens the opportunities afforded Axion. They just need to figure out the best ways to adjust to all the variable we know about and don't know about. John has indicated TG is a master and I believe him.

     

    I guess in effect we're all doing the same thing with our participation. Taking what we can find on the company, the product, its partners and the various industries they are looking to serve to make individual assessments. We just don't have the same access to all the information so we need to develop a level of trust toward who is in place in the company. I see this as a plus with Axion because they seem more old school and I'm more comfortable with that. Nose to the grid stone and all.

     

    So we watch, cheer and wait.
    6 Jul 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    John, do you expect the placement agents to add to our selling pressure? I don't think they hold too much stock but maybe enough to keep a lid on things for another week or so once the others vacate. Hopefully we can wipe all of this out before October and then if the next placement (Dec? to avoid a "going concern" qualifier; or can any placement before the 10k thwart this issue) uses a 2 month trailing VWAP again we will have a nice average to work from.

     

    However maybe the raise occurs in 2013 and my assumption of a Dec. raise is moot and for sure all BIG seller will have left the building. Seems like last time a BIG seller stepped aside we had a quick run from .30 toward .60.

     

    "The Placement Agents have agreed that the shares of Common Stock issued pursuant to the equity portion of such fee shall not be sold during the Offering, or sold, transferred, assigned, pledged, or hypothecated, or be the subject of any hedging, short sale, derivative, put, or call transaction that would result in the effective economic disposition of the Shares by any person for a period of 180 days immediately following the date of the Offering except as permitted by FINRA Rule 5110(g)."
    6 Jul 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The placement agents got 801,017 shares of stock as part of their fee and are precluded from selling before the end of July.

     

    The year end financial statements won't include a qualified audit opinion unless there's a going concern risk when the financial statements are issued – e.g. March 31, 2013.

     

    I personally like to see cash on the face of a balance sheet, which is why I've said that I'd probably go for a December deal rather than Q-1 of next year. I think Axion's board will be far more concerned with pricing than optics because the last couple deals have hurt the core far more than they've hurt open market buyers.

     

    A long price averaging period was used in February because of the beat-down the price took in December 2011. The selling pressure was vicious enough to scare anybody, particularly an investor who was getting ready to write a check. Frankly I don't blame the selling agents for being tough on pricing because that's what happens in mean markets.

     

    If the pressure relents in early Q-4 and the price starts to ramp nicely, the dynamic will be very different and it will be investors who want to close quickly in case the price runs further and TG will be in a position to push a short average price period instead of a long one.

     

    Bottom line is the dynamic should be very different next time Axion goes back to market.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Is it safe to assume the agent will sell their shares this Summer and should we factor these shares into the potential 4M shares of remaining supply?

     

    I realize 800k shares doesn't sound like much but if they only sell 10% of daily volume (i.e the Querus operandi) then it would take nearly 2 months of trading at 200k/day average. Also I'd assume the other 4M+ shares come out on the same pace and thus it seems nearly 50% of our volume can be explained by BIG sellers dripping off their positions. With the whole double counting thing it seems the answer of "who" is selling isn't so murky (I wish I knew who was buying though; my Axionistas friends are tapped =).

     

    October we will be in the clear I'd think, especially if the rest of us hold tight. Heck, might be a fun Halloween if we Axionistas don't get "spooked" and allow our candy bags to fill-up.
    7 Jul 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Most brokers that I've known over the years look at their in-kind comp as a way to significantly improve their economics on a deal. The agents were paid $654,164 in cash for the raise and got 801,017 shares of stock. If they sell at $.35 starting in early August, they can net ±$280,000, which would bring their compensation on the deal up to 10%. If they hold off until the price doubles, for example, their in-kind compensation would be ±$560,000, or roughly 13%. It would be foolish to assume that the selling agents will hold for big multi-bag gains, but most view in-kind comp as a way to get a much bigger payday than they would have with a straight 10% commission.

     

    You need to be careful with trading volume assumptions. Axion's 50-day average volume is ±266,000 shares and the 200-day average is ±311,000 shares. The fact that volume has been low for the last couple months does not necessarily imply that it will remain low. For this year, the monthly numbers have been:

     

    Jan - 11,980,800
    Feb - 9,071,200
    Mar - 3,953,700
    Apr - 7,659,200
    May - 5,555,100
    Jun - 3,823,700

     

    My volume tracking charts have just bounced off the long term low volume trend line and there's a good chance that trading will move up sharply from here.
    7 Jul 2012, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    I hope you are right about volume (and the broker). May and June have been weak especially when considering actual dollars traded. I would love to clean up the slop before Summer's end and if it happens I will be first to give you kudos, but as long as it happens before the holiday season then our placement should be an up-round.

     

    Sometimes I wonder why another institution doesn't just call up Blackrock and Quercus and take them out (or even better a fatwallet Axionista). Imagine what this stock would do if 5-10 Million wanted to find a home quickly; I'd think a triple would be conservative.
    7 Jul 2012, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Jul 2012, 04:39 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this was discussed, but the new Exide 10-K is out and it appears they have excised Axion's name.

     

    Last year, they still had this statement in the 10-K -
    "Also in the first quarter of fiscal 2010, the Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Axion Power, an advanced lead-acid development company in Newcastle, Pennsylvania."

     

    I didn't see Axion mentioned this year.
    6 Jul 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Based on the terms of the agreement Axion and Exide signed I'm pretty confident the relationship is terminated. Not that it wasn't over long before now but it's official.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Any ideas on the early 250k in shares traded? Seems like lots of volume respective to the past few weeks.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The trading pattern makes it abundantly clear that a big holder (maybe Blackrock?) has decided to sell its position and is happy with a preemptory price of $.35 per share, which is presumably less than any retail holders or February 2012 purchasers will be willing to sell for. They've been unwilling to go below their $.35 price, but they don't seem eager to ramp it up either.

     

    If my theory is correct and Blackrock plans to sell its entire position, the FINRA numbers tell me they have less than 2 million shares left. That's a clearance sale limited to stock on hand.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    Aren't the only two holders with enough supply and stock in certificate form to trigger an increase in FINRA numbers Manutauk Hill and Blackrock?

     

    We would know if was Quercus b/c they have to report on Form 4 every time they sell.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There are two remaining holders with large blocks of stock in paper form – Quercus and Blackrock. The Manatuck Hill shares were transferred to street name on June 3, 2010 (see note 3 to principal stockholders table). – http://1.usa.gov/JOhF6i

     

    Since the end of March, 3.8 million shares have been reported as FINRA short sales. Quercus has sold 705,000 shares in that period. I believe the other 3.1 million had to come from Blackrock, which leaves them with 2 million shares.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Another way to look at the theorized big holders's selling supply is that, at just under 6 million shares (2 Blackrock, 2 BK, and 1.7 or so Quercus), it represents only about 1/5 of the Feb placement, or only about $2 million. Not that much left in the big picture, really.

     

    I'd still like to add at lower prices, but if the BK guys don't dump, I may not get a very good chance.

     

    I'll end this post with my usual mention about demand, since it's hardly ever discussed except by me I guess. Who's doing the buying? We've seen some solid demand at 35 cents a day here and a day there. Nice sign during this no-man's-land period. Since no one here's taken credit for the buying, I think it might be someone bigger than most of us. Kinda neat how stealthy it's been, actually.
    6 Jul 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: I'm guessing the big buyer, or better, the big adder, is Special Situations.

     

    Although, there were some investing houses at the SC, who might be easing in.

     

    What's nice is that we've shifted during the past months from, who the heck is doing all this selling? To now, who the heck is doing all the buying?

     

    Seems this is happening due to the increase in transaction sizes, and the buy/sell ratio HTL is so wonderful at tracking.
    6 Jul 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Why would you suspect that a fund that ripped the surface off roads and bridges getting out of town so fast would be returning?

     

    Seems rather odd to me.

     

    I think the buyer is just Axionists et al. If it was a big buyer they would just contact the funds looking to get out and negotiate a price for their holdings.

     

    Just some thoughts.
    6 Jul 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: We already know that Special Sitz has been accumulating this year, after they sold to zero at the very end of last year. Last I recall, they had bought back 3.4M shares.

     

    I agree, it's odd, it's bazaar, just plum doesn't make any sense, but in my opinion, it's quite possible that SS is still accumulating.

     

    Could it be that this column addressed this before you appeared in this, the white hats forum?
    6 Jul 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Was there a filing that had shown the recent accumulation? I guess I missed it or it was so bizarre it didn't register.

     

    Thanks for any info. in advance. Now back to exfoliating one side of my head with intense scratching. Odd.

     

    Or maybe not so odd if they wanted to help Quercus get the most for their money and felt they could buy it back for the right price.
    6 Jul 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    MrI: "I'll end this post with my usual mention about demand, since it's hardly ever discussed except by me I guess".

     

    What?! Almost everyday I post and talk about trade sizes and such and theorize that we've got retailers mostly (SWAG only).

     

    Obliviously (sic) I'm burying my critical opinion in too many useless "bits", resulting in a bad signal-to-noise ratio! ;-))

     

    Wouldn't be a new phenomenon for me. :-((

     

    Seriously, I've been mulling it too and my best assessment from the trade sizes, behavior as the buyers (usually) wait patiently for a 1/2 penny better price, ... makes me think it must be retailer investors.

     

    I mean, would Special Situations haggle over 1/2 penny? 1Penny?, ...

     

    Countering that, there are some days where some trades that appear as individual trades are certainly a single aggregate trade IMO. But I try to avoid getting too much massaging of the data to satisfy my take as I think that (inconsistent) manipulation of the data would make it less reliable and useful - we'd always wonder if I was "coloring" it correctly.

     

    Today was an excellent example where I could make an excellent argument for larger trades than what will be shown.

     

    One last thought on "who's buying". I *think* if we had some larger buyers there would be some of those "back channel" block trades going off that bypass the market-makers. NASDAQ provides these special periods throughout the day (it's so frequent I almost want to say "continuously") so that inter-broker (and other sort-of "dark pool") trades can be done away from the prying eyes of the innocent unwashed masses like us.

     

    What I can't say for sure is if the OTC, Pinks, Greys, ... have the privilege of using these obfuscating tools or not.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Sorry HTL, didn't mean to say that I'm the only one writing about the buying. Just seems like the buy:sell discussion ratio is 1:19 or worse.

     

    Great to see some words about who the buyer(s) might be. We've got the Special Sits data point re: they accumulated a lot of shares in Q1 (when is their next filing, assuming they don't cross the min. %age ownership threshold? Put that date on the (upcoming?) Axionistas Calendar, lol). We've got the abscence of "I just bought" comments here. We've got some decent blocks, IMHO (I think it's more reasonable to conclude that the rapid-fire buys often enough are part of one order then not. I've placed both buys and sells for, say, 25k shares and it's almost always 10k, 10k, 5k instead of 25k, for example, especially when there is only 5k or 10k at the ask). We've got a lot of the buying at or very close to 35 cents. We've got this buying when every Axionista and his brother is aware that the BK trustee may dump 2mil shares, at the same time that Blackrock and Quercus are selling, and with no major PR news out of the company. We've got Maya's comment above about some investing houses at the Shareholder's Mtg. We've got Rosewater's retail contractors visiting New Castle. What else?

     

    Good food for thought.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The managers of Special Sits file a Form 13F-HR within 45 days after the end of each quarter. Their February 10, 2012 report showed no Axion position. (http://1.usa.gov/zn6W30) Their May 11, 2012 report showed 3,408,000 Axion shares. (http://1.usa.gov/LUpyZv) It strikes me as odd too, but there's really no way to tell whether there was an error in the December report or buying in Q-1.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: Want to evince that, "I heard there were some investing houses at the SC." For the record, I did not talk to any of these people.

     

    Maybe other attendees did.

     

    What data do you have that says the buy to sell ratio is, "1:19, or worse?" What time frame are you using?

     

    I'm seeing gentle buying, and in larger blocks, buying that will buy any shares available under 35 cents.

     

    Count me in. I want to buy some cheaper shares, too.

     

    But somebody is buying, besides us Axionistas.

     

    The fun part is that they are lurking, and reading every word all of us write.

     

    Why?

     

    Because any deal that jumps production will surface first here.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I get calls regularly from individuals and small institutions that are looking at Axion and doing some diligence. I answer their questions when I can, or more frequently point them in the direction of reports and documents that let them find their own answers. I also tell them that these Concentrators are a great resource because they offer an unparalleled glimpse into the thought process of Axion's stockholder base.

     

    Stockholders always focus on *who's doing all that selling* because they fear that *somebody else knows more than they do* I've always believed the identity of the sellers is worthless unless knowing that bit of information helps you get a better understanding of the overhang. Sellers make themselves less relevant every time they hit the sell button. The guy who matters is the other side of the trade that's hitting the buy button.

     

    Selling pressure breeds uncertainty and tends to make buyers hold back and bottom fish. Stable prices, particularly prices that have been flat for a few weeks, breed confidence that the worst is over and that a clearance sale is a good buying opportunity. Once prices start to rise, the *fence sitters* start climbing down quickly because they don't want to watch the price run away from them.

     

    I'd like to see more volume because higher volume shortens the doldrums. It is good, however, to see the tight spreads and pretty buy sell ratios that HTL keeps posting.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Maya and John, Thanks for waking me up relative to Special Sits. I'll digest it accordingly. Don't know why I'm so far behind on this information but it is what it is. It doesn't change much for me other than I'd prefer it to be an error for obvious reasons.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Enjoyed the 2nd half of your post.

     

    ""I heard there were some investing houses at the SC." For the record, I did not talk to any of these people."

     

    Never said you did. I just reposted your comment. Given no short interest in the stock, any investor at the meeting is a motivated potential long(er). Combined with John's first sentence below, it's a nice reminder, at a minimum, that the demand side is still alive.

     

    "What data do you have that says the buy to sell ratio is, "1:19, or worse?""

     

    You misread my post. Here it is again, "buy:sell discussion ratio".
    7 Jul 2012, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Very helpful to have some comments about buying, to maintain at least a little more balanced discussion.
    7 Jul 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    MrI: "Sorry HTL, didn't mean to say that I'm the only one ..."

     

    I knew that. I was trying pass a little self-deprecating humor on - keyboards make it more difficult. I took no offense and assigned no deficiency to what you said.

     

    "... rapid-fire buys often enough are part of one order then not".

     

    Yep. That's what I've been trying to avoid going overboard on. I even have some that span several second or a minute that when I total them up I'm sure are a single order.

     

    I just figure that it's better to let the averages, which will vary much less than if I massaged the data, stand on its own for the most part.

     

    "We've got this buying when ... What else?".

     

    Don't forget the recent favorable press wherein AXPW was mentioned shortly before the holidays. Combined the stuff I've mentioned over time, I really do believe we have a lot of retail investors coming in over time. There may be some bigger ones too, but as you suggest we'd have to massage what's seen to reach that conclusion. Anyway, bigger ones or not, I'm pretty sure there's a lot of retail buying going on.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    JP: "Stable prices, particularly prices that have been flat for a few weeks, breed confidence that the worst is over".

     

    To me, as you can tell from the number of times I asked for a steady grind that instills confidence of little downside risk, that is one of the more important things.

     

    After the rocky market most have suffered late 2007-to-date, I think everyone is more risk-aware and risk-averse.

     

    The price action you described above is a little bit better than "flat". Since the 14th of June, we see a fairly steadily rising VWAP even though the high doesn't budge (read top line then bottom).

     

    0.3295, 0.3277, 0.3278, 0.3277, 0.3275, 0.3274, 0.3282, 0.3304
    0.3340, 0.3378, 0.3414, 0.3431, 0.3444, 0.3446, 0.3444, 0.3446

     

    Most of this is due to rising lows, with some contribution from average trades sizes tending higher. Here's the lows for the same period (read top line then bottom).

     

    0.3000, 0.3010, 0.3052, 0.3300, 0.3400, 0.3321, 0.3349, 0.3350
    0.3391, 0.3370, 0.3303, 0.3300, 0.3350, 0.3498, 0.3300, 0.3406

     

    All these effects are more apparent in the newly-structured chart in my experimental instablog. The restructured version of the chart has already been posted through 7/5 (ignore 7/5 daily short sales - FINRA data was missing about 75% of the trades and shorts must be considered unreliable for that day)and should be much more readable than the prior version.

     

    I'll have a new shorter instablog up in the next hour or so and the normal EOD stuff in a few minutes.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    LATEST LUX

     

    Grid Storage Battery Cost to Fall to $500/kWh, Short of Expectations

     

    Prices of lithium-ion and molten-salt batteries will still be double the target of $250/kWh in 2022

     

    http://on.mktw.net/Oe6UJ9

     

    When you read the report, however, the $500 number is cost at the battery manufacturer level before R&D, overhead and profit.
    6 Jul 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Post of the Day.

     

    Refreshing to read a couple today relevant to Axion, lol. Between the heat and Friday and the waiting, some folks are cracking up. Hang in there, brothers.
    6 Jul 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2215) | Send Message
     
    John, strange LUX didn't mention zinc-bromide hybrid flow batteries. They use cheap materials and have relatively benign operating conditions. They should be cheaper to make than V-redox.

     

    The only reason I can think of to leave them out is insufficient information. Maybe there isn't enough manufacturing cost information available? Or maybe ZnBr efficiency drops below some arbitrary cutoff number.
    7 Jul 2012, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Lux only looked at three technologies in this particular report – lithium-ion, sodium beta (Zebra) and vanadium redox. I don't think it was meant to be all inclusive because their real goal is to sell subscriptions to their storage forecasting service that lets users model their own assumptions. If anything, I think the takeaway from the latest report is that (1) lithium-ion cost reductions aren't happening, and (2) vanadium redox won't be competitive either.
    7 Jul 2012, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2215) | Send Message
     
    Reasonable John. Thanks.
    7 Jul 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    While we're stuck on pause...

     

    Think government... financials... government... energy... government... biotech (FDA)..."...it's the economy, stupid!"

     

    "This stuff is getting old! I just wish they would get on with it. Politicians are playing catch as catch can... I haven't seen people get all the right people into the room and close the door and put a solution up on the wall. God knows, some really stupid things were done by American banks and American investment bankers...some stupid things were done...but it wasn't just the bankers. Where were the regulators in all this?"

     

    Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan
    2009

     

    My, how far we have come!
    Where are our leaders?
    6 Jul 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    mago > "While we're stuck on pause...

     

    Think government... financials... government... energy... government... biotech (FDA)...'...it's the economy, stupid!'"

     

    It is the economy still today largely due, IMO, to a government response at time of a pervasive financial crisis that attempted to promulgate virtual revolutionary scale of change in society and industry. Dimon was clearly complaining about prolonged Dodd-Frank legislative development that left much to be desired. Throw in circumvention of judicial bankruptcy resolution of autosector collapse, suspension of Gulf of Mexico drilling for six months, "Obamacare", blocking of XL pipeline construction, EPA regulations declaring CO2 emissions harmful and stringent new emission standards on power plants rendering many coal-fired facilities uneconomic, extension of grants and tax credits for uneconomic renewable energy and energy storage technologies, extension of FICA "holidays", strident unceasing demands to raise tax rates for a large segment of the population, refusal to address a clear and pressing need to dampen entitlement spending growth, a looming "fiscal cliff". Now overlay the "work in progress" with the EUR crisis. Net result is uncertainty compounding perception of uncertainty.

     

    I don't envision better economic performance without appreciable reduction risk perceptions.
    6 Jul 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    ALL, We're not really stuck on pause today. We're back to getting rid of some of that large old guard that got distracted. You can't be an investor and not like volume in the paper you're holding. Liquidity is good.

     

    D-inv, Are you implying that you don't think businesses will invest in long term assets with their own capital when they are standing on quicksand?

     

    They will sure do it if "We the people" take the risk though. The lender of last resort.
    6 Jul 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, bravo. Expanding and deepening realms of dysfunctionality and sclerosis everywhere: the tax code, entitlements, healthcare, immigration, education, student loans, devolving families...
    6 Jul 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    "The lender of last resort"

     

    I would've replaced "lender" with "screwee".

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "Thatsa" a nice gloomy list!

     

    Though I firmly believe "fiscal cliff" will be legislated away, (but the media will be pounding on this beginning next quarter), I can add to your list that global PMI is as low as it's been since right after the Lehman disaster.

     

    This is not a pretty chart:

     

    http://read.bi/LRJL27

     

    Today's news: Jobs stink!

     

    Then we have to add in how the rigged markets had the typical end of the quarter surge, as excellently explained today by good friend, Joseph Shaefer:

     

    http://bit.ly/Nc8kGT

     

    Additionally, I expect this earnings season to not be a very good one. Likely, It'll be somewhere in the August dog days that the market bottoms, because (tongue-in-cheek) we can't have a bad market going into this year's election.

     

    On another, more fanciful note, long term Seeking Alpha friend, John Lounsbury, wrote a nice piece about the discovery of the God-particle, perhaps mankind's greatest physics discovery since Einstein's Theory of Relativity:

     

    http://bit.ly/LsKAAA

     

    Perhaps my co-favorite finding of late is that our Milky Way black hole will next year be dining on a massive cosmic fart!

     

    http://yhoo.it/LStWs4
    6 Jul 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv

     

    We're in agreement, but "uncertainty" and "perceptions" will linger longer without real leadership (i.e. no finger pointing, take some action together)... POTUS, Congress, Senators, business leaders et al need to get in that room and come out with a plan and lead...but, alas...we wait...
    6 Jul 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "will linger longer without real leadership (i.e. no finger pointing, take some action together)... POTUS, Congress, Senators, business leaders et al need to get in that room and come out with a plan and lead...but, alas...we wait... "

     

    I am of the opinion that the House has shown a smidgen of 'real leadership' in restraining growth of government spending and hiring over the past ~18 months. I assure you I am not simply waiting for the outcome of the November elections, but acting to influence the outcome in directions I think most beneficial for the long term -- and that most certainly is not four more years of Obama.

     

    I would much rather be writing checks to charitable organizations helping people help themselves than to politicians, but Republican and Libertarian political campaigns are realizing some inflows of time and money. The prospect of Obama having four more years to appoint people to federal judicial positions (including Supreme Court) is truly terrifying.
    6 Jul 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Please take this to a political board.
    6 Jul 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    "malaise, it's not just for breakfast anymore."
    6 Jul 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    wtb

     

    I'll take the hit...my bad.
    Figured a "pause" moment and link to misplaced green subsidies. (sans AXPW)
    7 Jul 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Jamie is something else.
    I wish my board of directors would understand if I mislaid $9 billion and blamed it on unnecessary regulations!
    For some silly reason we are expected to be responsible for the actions of the people we supervise.
    6 Jul 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    growsmart

     

    ...but what actions do we take here and now...again, leadership is sorely missing.
    6 Jul 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... Since we're cross posting I'll follow suit

     

    "Where were the regulators in all this?" I'll venture to guess they were waiting for their term to end so they could take a well paid job with those corporations they regulated. Meanwhile the "People's Representatives", our leaders, were in a contribution bidding war to fill those regulator jobs with people from the winning firm.

     

    I think it works nearly perfectly for those that matter. An ever smaller & smaller (& richer) group of people we just can't live without. How could this system possibly not work smoothly?
    6 Jul 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Point taken.
    I personally know many regulators (not appointees) ...who want to do their job...do need more training...who REALLY cannot keep up with all the trading strategies when even the CEO's of the companies don't understand it...and are operating at the whim of the politicians.
    6 Jul 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... I, too, know many dedicated people in various regulatory functions and really try to do what is in the best interest of the general public, but each & everyone of them will tell you that enforcement changes on a regular basis according to the political appointees in charge. There is no better way to loose your budget or get transferred than to start enforcing rules against a well connected entity.
    6 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Interesting thesis abstract from Oregon state using both supercapciters and a ZBB flow battery to smooth out wind power ....

     

    I have not gotten through it yet.

     

    http://bit.ly/N5nTiO

     

    http://bit.ly/N14jpa
    6 Jul 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    This li-ion explosion article was probably previously posted -

     

    http://bit.ly/uB68Iy
    6 Jul 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    "With every solar vehicle, you have to be able to get out in 10 seconds," Han said. He and others estimated that Nick Sitts made it out in two to five seconds."

     

    Two words: Martin-Baker. When you care enough to fly the very best. ;)
    6 Jul 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    48: If that's what I think it is, tunnels might present a problem. Do they offer a horizontal version? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Gosh!

     

    I'm a buy and hold sort of guy. 10 seconds is a bit tight for me.
    6 Jul 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    LoL AlbertinBermuda!

     

    It looks like our stock-market's behavior has infected almost every area of life!

     

    IIRC, I heard somewhere that with HFT, Quants, ... average stock position hold time was somewhere around 70 seconds?

     

    As more and more investors stay away from the market, that average should continue to fall as the "machines" battle it out for 1/1000th of a penny on a few million trades per minute.

     

    I can't wait for the day when one of them wins and decimates their opposition and they have nobody left to scalp. Then the winner will be out of business too and maybe some semblance of a real investing market may rise from the ashes!

     

    I know, I know - I'm delusional. We can't turn back the clock.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    This is one place where I can almost see the virtue of some kind of transaction tax... maybe a penny per? Or a fraction? Something to return a small measure of sanity, but without all the scorched earth? I mean I'm all for nimbleness, liquidity, market efficiency etc, etc... but something does seem a bit off when such a magnitude of computing / connectivity / processing resources get devoted to facilitating these microsecond trades... I know I'm way out of my depth here, but somehow incentives do seem misaligned with all this...
    6 Jul 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    I think if the tax were time related such that it didn't inhibit really *useful* liquidity but took the profits away from sub-millisecond trading would be useful.

     

    Also taxing "quote stuffing" activities would be very useful.

     

    Tax "Flash Order" activity (if it can be positively identified).

     

    Caveat: additional taxes are *always* a slippery slope as they are apparently addictive, based on history.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... The simplest way to throw a wrench into HFTradebots it would to be to place a time limit of ... say ... as little as 1/2 second that a trade has to be held open to the market. The argument against this is, of course, that it would diminish active trading, liquidity ... a strawman, since the exchanges get paid & liquidity is added on execution not on bid/ask placement.
    6 Jul 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Adding, and also pending, is Fiscal Cliff, where as much as a 40% tax will suddenly be placed upon yielding stocks.

     

    http://reut.rs/PtwakY

     

    In a strange way, this looming tax increase just may enhance non-yielding growth stocks.

     

    7 Jul 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Can't make this stuff up!

     

    LED hula hoop powered by a lithium ion battery overheats:

     

    http://bit.ly/MaJXb4
    6 Jul 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Well, we know AXPW investors are getting bored when they start doing DD on hula hoops! ;-))

     

    Oops! My mistake! You were no doubt investigating the possibility of a PbC "nano-tube-cube" for regenerative energy capture. Great thinking there!

     

    When you are exhausted, the hoop can be fitted as the driving wheel of your light-weight cycle and carry you to a rest area!

     

    :-))

     

    I like it! And with the weight of the lead, we can also use it as an inertial-guidance gyroscope, with a modicum of high-tech equipment attached!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    I fear your plan would suffer overhead resistance. A common occurrence of late.
    6 Jul 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    John: Along with your theory that 6 billion people are now wanting what the other 1 billion have, here's a good article about how cities are growing globally. Great charts, too

     

    -- By 2025 it is estimated the newly coined “global consuming class” will add an additional $10 trillion in annual investments.

     

    http://bit.ly/MP62yT
    6 Jul 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks Maya. It lead me to more grist for my mill.
    6 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Missed this article on Doe Run. Seems they are doing an about face on a new US lead plant.

     

    "Doe Run ditches plans for U.S. lead plant"

     

    http://reut.rs/M9pXE7
    6 Jul 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Another win for value-added industrial production in this country. Way to go fellas...
    6 Jul 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Can't say I blame them. You have leadership that doesn't want it and.... So why bother?

     

    Plus with lithium ion batteries set to become free any day now! :))
    6 Jul 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Lead prices are going *up* and now it's unprofitable/too risky to produce domestically? Can we say perverse result? Just one more slide lower on our long road to national failure. Didn't we tread this same path with REEs?
    6 Jul 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Maybe those smelter workers can find new jobs at the IRS:

     

    http://bit.ly/MGYnDe

     

    They already have the expertise in handling a toxic product.
    6 Jul 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Well we have the extremes. On the one hand we have groups in the US that don't want to tolerate any risks so few are willing to make long term investments. On the other hand we have places like China, Mexico, many African nations etc. where they will melt lead next to their dinner on the stove. Somehow we need to find the right balance.

     

    Most probably we never will as a life here is not the same value as a life there etc. In the end many there will all be retarded and many here will all starve to death. But we'll still be able to get LABs. Ya have to set priorities. More Bio-Carbon please.
    6 Jul 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Same path.....deeper ruts!
    6 Jul 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    I hear ya Albert. :)
    6 Jul 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    :-) Apply the "glass half full" rather than "half empty" perspective. Maybe Doe Run looked at future demand for batteries and decided it would be stagnant here for while. Widespread application of PbC anodes stands to reduce future lead input by 30% per battery!
    6 Jul 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2429) | Send Message
     
    The "less lead per battery" meme is not entirely correct. Yes, 30% less lead for a battery -- with 50% less kwh capacity, i.e., 40% more lead per kwh.

     

    For some power applications, kwh is a less critical metric. For energy applications, kwh is a key metric.
    7 Jul 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    A123's raises $39 mln, warns of cash burn

     

    http://reut.rs/M9qaqT
    6 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    The article was a bit misleading. A123 raised $50 million a month or so back and had to put $30 million in escrow until the stockholders approved the offering, which happened on June 29th. The bottom line is they sold $9 million of new stock and got $30 million that they'd already raised released from escrow.

     

    Bottom line – A123 is printing new stock faster than the Fed is printing dollars.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Another look at the Siemens overhead catenary for road transport.

     

    'Green' Transport Idea Is Expensive Folly

     

    http://bit.ly/NccTgy
    6 Jul 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    GE's new battery plant set to open.

     

    http://bit.ly/Mb9IYK
    6 Jul 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I picked up 5k today. I'm keeping some dry powder in case of one more sell-off however
    6 Jul 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    I’ve fallen behind on reading the concentrators of late but finally caught up this evening. Below is a several day old comment from Mr. Investor to which I’d like to respond.

     

    Mr. Investor 3:19pm July 3rd Concentrator 122
    “Sure would be nice to get more info from Vani, to first determine what the problem really is. You have a group of large prospective auto manufacturing customers (e.g., BMW, GM, Ford) that I would think already largely understand PbC's role, as well as NS, Viridity, and Rosewater's retail customers who have been to New Castle already.

     

    So who doesn't get it, exactly? The other auto companies? Other RRs? PC prospects? Is Vani able to get first appointments, but not follow-up ones? We heard that Axion had double the number of interested customers/RFPs (paraphrasing here) in Q1. So what's the problem?

     

    Changing basic perceptions is often a slow road and thus a big negative for investors. Hope Vani's talking about prospects closer to the periphery and/or smallish ones. “

     

    -

     

    I was very concerned when I saw the “automakers don’t get it” slide and later that day asked Mr. Dantam about it. He answered the question to my satisfaction despite offering very few specifics. Essentially, he said there is quite a spectrum amongst the auto OEMs in the degree to which they “get it”. Some just don't, but there are several new OEM relationships in particular where they very much do “get it”. He seemed very energized when talking about these opportunities.

     

    My takeaway from that conversation was that this is very good news. I don’t care if some OEMs are sitting on their hands as long as at least one is moving aggressively. That first mover will gain a significant advantage while also giving Axion, regulators, and the other OEMs proof of concept. Then we’ll be off to the races.

     

    I’m still in the camp that automotive is several years away, but this discussion helped ease my game-theory based fears that all the automakers would sit on their hands knowing this would prevent the regulators from forcing the issue, which would impose additional costs on the automakers.

     

    I thought this was very important. Hope this helps.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Best and most useful comment I've read lately APM. Thanks
    7 Jul 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2802) | Send Message
     
    Awesome, APM. Thanks!

     

    "Some just don't [get it], but there are several new OEM relationships in particular where they very much do “get it”."

     

    Powerful stuff. Now I'm wondering who the new ones are, and the implications, such as timelines and regulatory critical mass. And hope and expect that BMW (still) 'gets it'.
    7 Jul 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    APM

     

    "Some just don't, *****but there are several new OEM relationships in particular where they very much do “get it”.***** He seemed very energized when talking about these opportunities.

     

    Good catch...I missed the end of the comment....

     

    "That first mover (or 2 and 3) ...Then we’ll be off to the races."

     

    Been there...seen that...hopefully sooner for AXPW.
    7 Jul 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Thanks APM for providing that info.
    7 Jul 2012, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    I agreed with this sentiment on small and micro-caps, not just for asx but here as well. I am seeing more and more evidence the markets might be getting primed for a run an small-caps not unlike what we had in jan.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/NehAdf
    7 Jul 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Power outages and heat waves: So where's the smart grid when we need it?

     

    http://bit.ly/Lxt3qI

     

    · Bob Gohn of Pike Research, who suggests greater distributed power, including small-scale power generation and/or storage systems in the home, could help.
    7 Jul 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: it's slowly coming. Remember that inertia of large entrenched interests and sunk capital costs must be overcome to progress much at all.

     

    Add in the problem of various interests ("special interests" or not) that see different "best solutions" for one problem or another.

     

    I'll be long-gone before much progress is seen, I think.

     

    Oh! I forgot "politics" and the ownership (IMO) of our (U.S.) government by corporate interests via PACs, Super-PACS, campaign contributions and lobbying.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 7/7/2012 EOD Stuff.

     

    First, get some context after reading this by looking at the new and, hopefully, more useful experimental chart which has added moving averages and restructured stuff to make it more readable.

     

    I'm also considering breaking it into multiple images that allow loading one (or more?) associated sections at a time rather than the whole shebang.

     

    Comments on the new charts with suggestion for further improvement and/or ways you would like them split are welcome over there.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    On to the trivia ...

     

    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 392574, AvTrSz: 8724
    Min. Pr: 0.3406, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3489
    # Buys, Shares: 36 311456, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3498
    # Sells, Shares: 8 46118, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3457
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 35000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3450
    Buy:Sell 6.75:1 (79.3% "buy"), DlyShts 216160, 55.1%

     

    A few items of note ...

     

    1) The low of the day, a single 100 share trade at the bid of $0.3406, went at 10:13:51. I commented on that at the time (here http://seekingalpha.co...) wondering why the MM would do that and considered that both scenarios would have lead to lower prices.

     

    Without that one trade, the day's low is $0.3450.

     

    Keep in mind the below comments on bad/ask are *at* the time of trades and may not fairly represent what happened between reported trades.

     

    I'm glad to conclude, erroneously or not, that buying support overwhelmed the MM's ability to move price lower. I took a snapshot of all the trades so I could look at bid/ask at the time of trades and am able to report the ask opened at $0.35, went no lower than $0.348 (12:02 - 2 trades then) and remained at >= $0.349 (usually $0.349x) at all other times in the day.

     

    The bids opened up at $0.3405 and went no lower than $0.3351 (11:07-11:32, 4 trades @ $0.3499-$0.35, 58K shares). The bid trend was higher, overall, peaking at $0.348 (12:42-14:23).

     

    Combining the bid, ask, trade prices, volume, ... I believe the market-maker said "not today" and stepped back.

     

    3) VWAP and the high are *very* close while the low, if that one "lure" is excluded is within 1/2 penny of the high.

     

    4) The "unknown" trade was an AH trade @ $0.345 that was 9.8% of the volume prior to that trade and I believe this was a Quercus-related trade.

     

    5) The daily short volume *and* percentage was much higher than recent, percentage was higher than all averages and was the 4th highest since 2/6 (excluding 7/5 - until FINRA fixes their data we don't have that day's numbers).

     

    Concerning short sales, this has to be a certificate conversion delay if JP's data and thoughts are correct. Manituck Hill has converted to "street name", leaving only Blackrock and Quercus(?) with sufficient certificates to cause this level of short sales. Subtracting the 35K AH trade, because I assume @ 9.8% it was Quercus, that suggests that Blackrock and/or Manituck Hill *may* have sold an aggregate 181,160 shares?

     

    Why MH? Well, even registered in street name the broker in which the shares are held may not have a captive market-maker or ready access to electronic means of immediate transfer of control of shares to a market-maker. In this scenario, if the shares are not in the market-maker portfolio, the sales *must* be flagged as short sales.

     

    But the MH registration in street name was 6-3-10 and they still hold 6% (7.2M shares), as far as we know, and we have seen no reason (other than my generally suspicious nature) to think MH would suddenly start selling (although since we always work with incomplete information ...).

     

    So I think Blackrock unloaded another 181,160 shares today.

     

    I'll finish my thoughts on the day's action with the note that I believe the average trade size was quite a bit larger than what my spreadsheet shows. There were quite a few temporally close trades at the same prices that summed to nice round block sizes. I won't go further down that road though.

     

    If you go look at my charts, pay attention to the new buy percentage averages at the bottom - these were the primary reason I mentioned the possibility of "stealth bullishness" a few days back. What reinforced that is two panels above - the averages for trade size have been quietly trending up as well.

     

    In two days a volume spike will drop out of the 50-day average range and the 10 and 25-day averages will begin moving above the 50-day volume average.

     

    All combined, a lot of positive divergences there. But if we do have Blackrock ready, willing able and determined to sell at $0.35, price will still be capped. That should be seen as a golden opportunity, IMO, as the apparent stealth bullishness, if continued, bodes well for future prices when Blackrock is done.

     

    On the traditional TA front, still mixed signals, although a couple of the earlier-leaning oscillators are beginning to reflect the "stealth bullishness" I think I see on my experimental charts. The strongest indicator is the accumulation/distribution over one year. It has risen from ~1.66 on 5.23 to ~3.64 even as price was flat, dipped substantially for a week, and went flat again. So folks a accumulating if this indicator is correct.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Princeton Power has a coming out party for its 10kW Demand Response Inverter next week:

     

    http://bit.ly/NwZzp7

     

    “The DRI’s E-Quad power flow technology, combined with pre-configured advanced battery compatibility, makes it a unique and superior inverter,” said Chief Technology Officer Mark Holveck. He added, “While most similar inverters have limited battery options, our DRI is capable of operating with several different types of advanced battery options.”
    7 Jul 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Funny how they mention electric vehicles twice. I guess they mean charging EVs from a DC (battery storage and/or solar PV) source? I wonder what the double conversion efficiency result is like there: DC to AC and then back to DC in the charger just to finally get some of it into the car's battery. I would guess it's not so great, but maybe it will work well enough for the 1% who can/will buy copious amounts of PV solar, a big stationary battery in which to store it up all day, and a nice new Tesla Model S to charge at night.... all so they can save beaucoup money on gas. ;)
    7 Jul 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Here are the specs.

     

    http://bit.ly/MRwUOJ
    7 Jul 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    And the piece most important to us, the control functions for the DC Power (charging profiles)...

     

    "Battery charge/discharge/bulk/... for lead-acid, lithiumion, and lead-carbon and PV array control"

     

    should say bio-carbon <grin>...
    7 Jul 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    You would expect they would have this profile given they worked on the Axion Powercube.
    7 Jul 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and I like the fact they are advertising it <smile>...
    7 Jul 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    48: "... a big stationary battery in which to store it up all day, and a nice new Tesla Model S to charge at night.... all so they can save beaucoup money on gas".

     

    That could be interesting since the EVangilicals I've seen on JP articles and elsewhere keep talking about how the PHEVs can be used to service the grid needs at night because they have that nice available big battery plugged in.

     

    So trying to charge the battery while the grid wants to pull from it seems to obviate one or more of the touted PHEV supposed advantages when discussing how it both services the grid and can be charged at night from the grid or (stored) renewable energy.

     

    I'm sure they would be glad to walk to work the next morning because they knew they serviced society by feeding the grid at night from their stored renewable energy.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    I'll confess to being a bit flip. But who knows maybe it can all work someday. It's just kind of funny to see an otherwise serious company (?) (princeton power) touting the EV market as somehow relevant to their new 10KW inverter. I mean are they kidding themselves, or trying to kid us? Or just slathering on some requisite green BS because by now that's what everyone expects and even though it's nonsense it's almost obligatory? Or... what am I missing?
    7 Jul 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Don't get me wrong though, I mean I'd love to have about 20KW of PV solar, two or three of these princeton inverters, and a nice storage bank of about 100 PbCs... and of course a Tesla S...but darn it, I just can't afford it...
    7 Jul 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    Hi 86,
    Green wash is expected in all areas any more. Our various levels of govt. and consumers expect it after all the continuing fear pronouncements from some so called scientific circles. I am really tired of seeing companies like Starbucks proclaiming to be green when it is nothing more than good management of resources when using used materials to decorate the interior of a store. Thats not green, that is saving money for the company by using available cheap resources.
    7 Jul 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Sigh... quite correct SD, and thanks.. I guess it all comes back to our own over-arching, era-defining phrase which I just can't stand: "perception is reality"... one which abets many of our troubles.

     

    "Waste not, want not" is very sound wisdom indeed, but when the PR value grossly dominates any actual value, we stray, and potentially stray far...
    7 Jul 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... Have you not heard that banks are anxious to lend money right now? I'm sure easy monthly payments could be arranged. I hear the derivatives markets are still operating and looking for risk to offset.
    7 Jul 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    If all the things being touted as being green, really were green, we would be using less than half the energy we used in the 1970s. Instead we have been adding much more energy use, using technology in daily life that is called green, but overall uses much more energy. Cell phones, computers, tvs, game consoles, computerized washer and dryers as well as electronic ovens and refridgerators. In the 1960s we had one tv in the house and one radio, lights, maybe electric stove and water heater. While I'm not a luddite, I do see the waste of energy being prolific in the name of progress. Do the so called energy efficient tvs actually use less power than an old 1960s black and white 21" tv? I have never seen any figures, but have to figure that the simplicity of the times used less energy.
    7 Jul 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    SD, kind of like computers are supposed to save paper when they really just make it easier to print...
    7 Jul 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tim,
    I agree.
    7 Jul 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    SD. Haven't looked at the tags on the back of these big ole TV's but hold yer hand over one when they are on. Also, Since they have microprocessors and we don't want to wait for them to boot up they are on at a reduced level all the time. And the cable or sat. box as well.

     

    Older but interesting.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/MdxumY
    7 Jul 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    Thanks for the link.
    8 Jul 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed: Because the growth in use is so large, it may mask a reduction in the rate of change in use per capita or some such other useful metric.

     

    I believe that some "green" generation sources can likely be cost-justified (either in $ or energy or both) but at a macro-level we would be hard-pressed to see the results in total consumption unless we could somehow project what it would've been w/o those sources.

     

    Ditto for more efficient items, like LED TVs. I'm sure a google will yield some numbers that demonstrate a 35" LED TV uses a *proportionally* smaller amount of energy than any old CRT based TV.

     

    You are right that the "simplicity of the times" used less energy, but per capita only. Measured in the devices, it's the other way around I think.

     

    The problem is that we've become a consumption-driven society, likely as our level of consumption has become one of the important measures of our worth (By whom? I can't say, but it seems so to me). Just like being famous because ... we are famous, a la Paris Hilton, even before her sex tapes. Maybe we've become a society that is based on vicarious gratification? Kardashians anyone?

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    I've reduced paper usage a *ton*. 'Course I started early being in the computer area for a living and very aggressive (at the time) in learning how to maximize benefits.

     

    Currently I throw away more ink cartridges do to drying out and almost never because they went empty.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: The IRS fights the trend by demanding hardcopy during an audit and, worse, *copies* of hardcopy so that you must have the originals somewhere (I guess on computer would be OK for yoy though - scanned images?).

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    HTL, yes after 30+ years we are making reductions but still think there are lots of people out there still hitting the print button so they don't have to read it on the computer screen - tablets will help...
    8 Jul 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    My wife uses the printer mostly in our house (she works from home a lot). Unless it's something she has to send to someone else, she prints on the back sides of old stuff. Drove me crazy at first, but I've come to respect it.
    8 Jul 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    That's a great idea and most printers will double-sided print now (if you can figure how to spin it <smile>...
    8 Jul 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    http://tinyurl.com/d9q...
    "Frost & Sullivan analysis suggests momentum toward supplementary 48V on-board power-net
    2 July 2012

     

    Vehicle electrification is not limited to hybrid or electric drive. Conventional automobiles of today are partly electric in their own way, with most systems in the vehicle having electrical and electronic connections for better functionality.

     

    Some high-end vehicles have more than 90 Electronic Control Units (ECUs) to control the various modules within the car, making the car both sophisticated and complicated. However, the trend is not limited to luxury cars. A typical mass-market car such as the Volkswagen Golf has had almost a three-fold increase in the number of ECUs used, from 17 ECUs in generation IV (1998) to 49 ECUs in generation VI (2010), notes Frost & Sullivan analyst Prana Natarajan. For example, Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) uses about 20 ECUs, sending signals to various other systems that interact with it"
    -- more --
    7 Jul 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    inndelco, have you seen the voltage range of the 48v system in any of your travels? I am seeing this as a very good sign for us...
    7 Jul 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Tim, They have been talking about 42 VDC electrical systems in vehicles for decades. They have even built some and then dropped them due to cost.

     

    Here is some brief earlier history that will bring a smile. I think it will happen at some point but it gets very complex because you really need a global plan to manage it.

     

    http://bit.ly/LxZeGz
    7 Jul 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    But don't you think electrical storage in auto's might be the catalyst to finally get it going

     

    PS: nice link, do you have a date for it?
    7 Jul 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    It's older. I just wanted to give you something old to give you some historical reference. Now looking for something more recent with some meat on it.

     

    BTW, If they start testing something 42 VDC with all the changes in the vehicle you're looking years out.
    7 Jul 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Tim, This is a good read as well.

     

    http://bit.ly/MewBdU
    8 Jul 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    thanks iindelco, you are a man of many links...
    8 Jul 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, iind. Maybe even "dumbed down" enough for me to better appreciate complexity of transitioning to different voltage systems.
    8 Jul 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I wanted to give a few easy reads on the topic because it has a long history worthy of some understanding. This history is littered with information regarding why it is so hard to adopt higher voltages and the financial costs/rewards. Technical data along with this historic view is kinda crucial in understanding way the migration is far harder than one would assume unless deeply involved in the industry.

     

    It's kind of like the difference between 745 kV and 1 million kV transmission. Just a different turns ration on the transformers, some higher towers and smaller wire right? :)
    8 Jul 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Not "dumbed down" but just some top level stuff to get a flavor for why things are the way they are.

     

    Throw in government interventions where numerous parties are trying to garner advantage and then it really gets complex.

     

    That's why China wants EV's to work. They will never catch up on ICE propulsion so they want to migrate to a technology where they have advantage. Unfortunately wanting and having are always tempered by physical realities.

     

    As Axionistas don't we know that.
    8 Jul 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    "you are a man of many links"

     

    Played golf all over the world, huh? :-)) What's his handicap?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, when you said we were years out I pretty much accepted it. The only thing that made me think we might be closer was an article with the whole lineup of HEV->EV's which showed them all running at a higher voltage. My thought was some of that tech might find it's way to the phase II micro-hybrids when they start coming out. Also, the next time we see the LC Super Hybrid it will be 48 volts...

     

    PS Those are some big/bad-ass transformers!
    8 Jul 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Don't play the game so I was more thinking along the lines of being classified as a "missing" one.

     

    Not that that's a bad thing right Metro!
    Politician pre-election stance(Enters room smiling and waving, shakes hands, kisses babies and promises great things without telling the recipients they are paying for the deliverables) Tis the season of Hope II.
    8 Jul 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Tim, We already see some level of higher voltages in vehicles. Mostly confined to the hybrid, PHEV and EV spaces. But these are mostly niche vehicles compared to main stream "every man/woman" vehicles.

     

    The LC Super Hybrid would be geared toward the high volume main stream market. As such it would get far more study because it would require significantly more investment and have a much bigger impact on the future of the automaker(s) that would adopt it. Even so the move from prototype, which is what was presented by the ALABA, and serial production would most likely be 4 years. Something to note but I'm more near sighted right now.

     

    BTW, The limit for electrical voltage in a vehicle for power distribution at a "safe limit" has been defined as 60V. This limit has been defined for biological reasons. Once you go above that limit it's a whole new ball game. The 42VDC "standard" was selected based on three 12 VDC LAB's as the power source. Since things continue to progress in chemical energy storage and the standard was never actually applied the debate rages on.
    8 Jul 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Roughly what percentage is the Heating and AC?

     

    When it comes to start-stop, these are the first things that come to my mind as I both 1) I want them to still work, and 2) I suspect that might be a big part of the "power" drain.

     

    What I'm angling at is whether there might be a "bootstrap" approach where PbC based 48V is introduced first in a fairly simple but useful manner that gives us a baby step forward without requiring a huge number of subsystems to be "re-engineered" right off the bat.

     

    Just wondering ... totally mostly uninformed speculation.
    8 Jul 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    Well, I can give some speculative and not heavily informed responses.

     

    First we see automotive suppliers trying to use alternate levels of energy storage to compensate for things like the need for AC if the ICE is turned off. They can do this by creating small reservoirs and using materials that release energy when they change phases. Much like ice and water. The storage of heat is not as much an issue because with an ICE most often you need liquid cooling so you already have energy storage in the cooling system.

     

    What differs, that changes much, is you're now also turning off the engine so you lose the old stand by power take off belt(s) to drive things like pumps to manage the exchange between the storage area and the passenger compartment. So you have suppliers changing all these functions to electrically driven motors which has pretty much already happened. Thus the need for more energy and the interest in higher voltage.

     

    Now it's a matter of determining vehicle use patterns, available technology and its associated loads, making this technology smart so you can time shift them reducing peak loads/dumping unnecesssary loads and looking at maximizing engines/electrical storage to optimize what you need to best utilize what you can justify via cost/benefit analysis. This differs little from what they are doing with the grid because in effect the automobile is nothing more than a micro grid with more limited generation, storage and loads. Simplified but kind of a block diagram way of thinking about it.I myself see a dual voltage system with the higher voltage (less than 60 VDC) being limited to the engine compartment and the balance of the vehicle getting smarter but remaining at 12VDC. This being for mass produced less than full hybrid systems.Take it for what it's worth. I contributed a little over the years to various fracional efforts and read out of interest. By comparison, vs key players, I'm "the village idiot".
    8 Jul 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "... classified as a "missing" one [link]"

     

    There ya go! That's your "handicap"! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Hopefully that "handicap" helps me if I'm off by more than one stroke.

     

    Without a whopper of a handicap I've got as much chance of winning at almost any level of play as finding a double eagle in my change. Or on the coarse! :))
    8 Jul 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have any thoughts as to why BCON still trades, given its new ownership?
    7 Jul 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Such things have always baffled me too... Is it now functionally a shell corporation that someday somebody could put something of some value into? Or is its continued trading yet another testimony to the endearing human quality of allegiance to hope over all facts and evidence?
    7 Jul 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Companies like BCON may continue to trade to facilitate tax loss planning but there is no value and it's highly unlikely that the company will be resuscitated as a shell.
    7 Jul 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    Short article on energy storage:

     

    3 things that are holding back grid energy storage

     

    http://wapo.st/N5LwJn
    7 Jul 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    http://n.pr/LFKUr2

     

    hmm... more storage projects for the grid? Perhaps using Axion batteries? oh yes please...

     

    But until then, the menu says that more outages and interruptions are coming for the lot of us...

     

    So, please send more Axion residential minicubes to the burbs, to the countryside, to every mcmansion in the land! Bwahahahaaaaa!!
    7 Jul 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The worst must be over as I saw the parade of line crews heading south on I-81 back to their home jurisdiction. Sitting here in NJ. Trees down all over the place...
    8 Jul 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    20 hours a day all triple time. Smiling exhaustion.
    8 Jul 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Makes for big checks and very strange dreams those few hours that you actually sleep...
    8 Jul 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "The worst must be over as I saw the parade of line crews heading south on I-81 ...."

     

    Heard on the radio this morning -- service still out for 480 homes served by Dominion Electric Power in N. Va., ~500 PEPCO customers in DC/MD still no power, BGE service for >2,000 homes in Baltimore County (N of Baltimore City) to Annapolis, MD still off grid after 8.5 days with day time temps > 95 degrees F (35 C) over most if not all of area.
    8 Jul 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9575) | Send Message
     
    My brother doesn't do em any more but his son just got his papers a couple years ago. Nice when you're just starting out.
    8 Jul 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, still going on then... it's still very hot up here... I suspect the local crews will take it from here...
    8 Jul 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, yes, I am afraid I would sit them out as well...
    8 Jul 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    "I suspect the local crews will take it from here... "

     

    Sure hope the utilities gave their local crews some time off to recuperate from working long hours in the heat before terminating all supporting services from elsewhere.
    8 Jul 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "Sure hope the utilities gave their local crews some time off to recuperate from working long hours in the heat before terminating all supporting services from elsewhere."

     

    Somewhere between "if the meters aren't spinning we aren't making money" and "the line crews are deep into triple time" lies the crew assignments. I suspect they did what you said and after they got the main feeders up they kept the contractors and sent the local crew home for 10-12 hours. Then started thinning out the contractors. Also, they may keep some of the contractors on as "dock crews" to help rebuild some of the heavily damaged lines but in a 10-12 hr workday...

     

    PS Just thinking about this makes me tired...
    8 Jul 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Concentrator with a link to HTL's chart tracking insta as well as a new Weighted moving average volume and price chart with summary updated through July 7th.

     

    http://bit.ly/NPVyde
    8 Jul 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
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