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  • Axion Power Concentrator 124: July 08, 2012 223 comments
    Jul 8, 2012 8:15 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta from July 7th

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    Today's price and volume graph includes a new "support line" for trading volume that I think may prove to be important. Volume fell off a cliff after the Q-2 and Q-3 conference calls last year and only peaked near year end because of relentless selling. Once the selling stopped, volume continued to recover until the February direct registered offering spooked a lot of people and volume fell off for a second time.

    It looks like we may be seeing a reversal of the pessimism with this latest bounce off the long term volume support levels. There certainly seems to be an improvement in the mood on the Concentrators over the last few days as people begin to realize that many Axionistas are sitting on their hands, but lurkers and other strangers that we don't know about are not sitting on theirs.

    (updated through July 7th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    (updated through July 7th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (223)
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  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Still growing: 135 followers today.
    8 Jul 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I'm 136. Don't know what it means to Follow, as I come to this site a lot already. But a higher number seems to matter to some folks, so I'm in.

     

    And there's gotta be a ballot stuffing machine around here somewhere, being ChiTown and all. ;^)
    8 Jul 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    How many email addresses you got (or can you generate in your spare time)?

     

    Wherever people start using a metric seriously, somebody will come along and destroy that metric. "Deamiter's law" if, by some miracle, it hasn't already been christened on teh interwebs.
    9 Jul 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater updated their site with the residential specs -

     

    http://bit.ly/LuUGw1
    8 Jul 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: He-he! The PDF has AXPW all over it. And early on is "The Energy RouterTM can also communicate with external entities such as generators, third party energy management systems, and the utility".

     

    I hear a future selling point coming down the pike, a la Viridty and similar, in jurisdictions where the regulators have various tariffs in place for peak, off-peak, various services that can feed back into the grid, ...

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: "... (24) Axion PbC Group 30HT ". At say 80% of our bandied $400/battery price, that starts a little flow of cash in the right direction just from the batteries, ~$7,680/installation?
    8 Jul 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan.

     

    Time to do a little reading. I often thought to myself that residential should have been an upfront app. But then I never would have thought of upscale estates. But hey, who has the most disposable income?
    8 Jul 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, numbers HTL. Let's say that in a system, $7,500 goes to Axion - one would think that if this application was ever in demand, Rosewater would be able to sell 1000s of these residential systems worldwide, and for each 1000 systems, Axion would add 7.5M in revenues.

     

    Unfortunately, to date, Rosewater has pursued Oil Drill Rigs and Utilities, but we are still waiting for the first sale.

     

    Hopefully, the market will develop, but it's difficult to get excited yet.
    8 Jul 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    SDtephan: "... but it's difficult to get excited yet".

     

    Not everyone is so afflicted!

     

    http://bit.ly/LA7B4A

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Stefan:
    Thanks for the link, highlighted the following information:

     

    b. The primary Axion PbC battery features include:
    i. Longer cycle life—factor of 3-4 X that of advanced Lead acid batteries
    ii. 2500 cycles @ 100% depth of discharge
    iii. Deep discharge capability without compromising cycle life
    iv. Excellent Partial SOC Performance
    v. High rate charge acceptance
    vi. Environmentally friendly—99% recyclable
    vii. Sealed VRLA package

     

    Thanks again and have a nice week.
    Carlos.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Indy Power Systems has a youtube video on the "Energy Router!"

     

    (Can Cisco be far away with an offer?) :-)

     

    http://bit.ly/NUO0WL

     

    But can they navigate the UL certification process?

     

    Wonder who will get there first, Princeton Power with their new DRI-10 (and DRI-100,) or Indy.

     

    Would love to know how Indy came in the picture, and whether there's some rift with Princeton or they just didn't have the product we needed.

     

    Googling Indy gives some interesting results.

     

    "Indy Power drops electric-car focus for more lucrative control boxes

     

    (old, "premium" content, but here's the healine:)

     

    After a stint making parts for electric cars, Symphony Motors recently became Indy Power Systems, changing course to make power control boxes for a variety of vehicles and also industrial and military applications."

     

    Indy Power Systems technology cited by Discovery magazine
    IBJ Staff
    ***** December 19, 2009 *****

     

    http://bit.ly/NUNZlw

     

    check out the one very inflammatory comment ... totally unverified by me, but does make you go hmmmm.

     

    On the other hand:

     

    http://bit.ly/NUO1dc

     

    Steve Tolen is the founder and former president/CEO of Symphony Bank in Indianapolis. He was responsible for recruiting the Bank’s original management team, overseeing the design and construction of the facility, and managing the selection of the technology platform. While departing the bank less than one year after obtaining its charter to pursue electric propulsion opportunities, the bank grew to $25 million in quality assets under his management.

     

    Mr. Tolen began his career at Electronic Data Systems, working with cash management, treasury operations, and portfolio management before leaving to join a banker’s bank, Southwest Corporate, where he managed an investment portfolio totaling over $1 billion. In addition to his background in finance, he has expertise in software design and programming, having designed and programmed Credit Analysis and Asset/Liability Management software. He is the author of Credit Union Asset/Liability Management Theory and Techniques and Credit Union Investment Strategies.

     

    In 1996, Mr. Tolen took the position of president/CEO of $1 billion (assets) Indiana Corporate Federal Credit Union (IndiCorp) when it was under regulatory supervision and within 3 years the firm was upgraded to an A rating by BankWatch. In 1999, he became president of $3 billion (assets) Mid-States Corporate Federal Credit Union, a position he assumed after engineering the merger between IndiCorp and Mid-States Federal Credit Union whereby IndiCorp maintained post-merger board control. Mr. Tolen holds a B.S. degree in finance from the University of Illinois.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,
    nice attribute list. thanks.
    viii. KIAS

     

    and the 2,500 cycles were done with old battery. IIRC Axion has started doing the 100% discharges again, but with newer battery. According to my notes can do about 3 discharges a day, so in about 2.5 years the 2,500 cycles should be surpassed, by which time there will be an even better battery.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's always the problem with deep discharge testing. By the time you get to a nice big number, the technology's advanced to a point where continuing the cycle life tests on legacy devices is a huge waste of time and money.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    No residential service will ever get to 1,000s of 100% discharge: if the systems 100% discharges more than once or twice over its lifetime, something is broken.

     

    For emergency power, the emergency generator or utility should kick in long before 100%. If you are doing grid support service, you never want to go to 100% because you always want your control electronics to stay alive, even in a blackout. Many sophisticated control systems don't/can't recover from a zero energy battery.

     

    The 2500 100% discharge number is useful: it means you probably actually can do close to 2500 95% discharges in the real world, not just the lab.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    What I think we'd all love to know is more like what are the total cycles at say 80% DOD? That would really tell the tale. 5,000? 10,000? even 20,000? beyond? I bet NS has a pretty good idea. At some point, you'd have essentially a bulletproof battery, one you could pound the snot out of day in day out... just like I bet NS intends, and several other potential applications (cough, hybrids, grid storage) might demand...
    9 Jul 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I'm not an engineer, but isn't Axion trying to improve the anode, too, as it's now amazingly the weak link in the deep cycle chain?
    9 Jul 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I

     

    Axion's "secret sauce" is their bio-carbon anode, which is used in conjunction with a conventional lead cathode. The carbon anode is what give the Bio-Carbon Battery (PbC) its remarkable properties. It is the "strong link". I am sure they continue to work at improving it.

     

    Axion may be working on the cathode, too, but I am not aware of that. Do have any links?

     

    Axion is (or has been) refitting some their (mature) lead cathode casting machines, which will probably improve the quality. This is not for breakthrough improvement. My understanding is it is making sure they can keep volume production up to world class standards.
    9 Jul 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The team ended up doing a lot of work on the lead-based positive electrodes because they were becoming the failure mechanism. I know some changes were made, but don't know whether they represent a different chunk of patentable IP, or just valuable know how.
    9 Jul 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    MrI: IIRC, Jveal posted a link to a patent app that added some bumps and rotated the the grid 90 degrees that improved anode lifetime and had other benefits.

     

    I can go check my bookmarks or Bang might have it in his search facility on his site.

     

    Let me know if you want me to dig it up - I do remember commenting on it though. Searching my comments for "scanning electron microscope" (either on SA or Bang's place, out to find it quickly. And just above that should be the post by JVeal IIRC.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Well, with two in a row asking, ...

     

    Here's JVeal's original post

     

    http://bit.ly/NDqz6f

     

    And link to the article from him.

     

    http://bit.ly/LfEWuZ

     

    And the actual patent

     

    http://1.usa.gov/LJRtZu

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    wtb > "Indy Power Systems has a youtube video on the "Energy Router!"

     

    (Can Cisco be far away with an offer?) :-)

     

    http://bit.ly/NUO0WL"

     

    Very Interesting! As to whether Princeton Power or Indy Power gets to UL listing first, I'm thinking Princeton may already be there but their DRI-10 spec sheet does include "*" following the standards listed (IEEE 1547, CEC, UL 1741).

     

    ZBB's 10KW EnerSection product has been awared UL listing already.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. I had missed the patent.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL, for saving me time in finding JVeal's comment!

     

    Rick: I recall during the July SC in 2011 (last year), that TG stated in an amused way that the Axion anode may just be the first anode ever tested for its durability, because of how well the carbon activated cathode was testing.

     

    Cathodes always stop working before anodes, was the gist I took away.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Hey Rick,

     

    From Axion's website home page:

     

    "Conventional lead-acid batteries use negative electrodes made of sponge lead pasted onto a lead grid current collector. In comparison, our technology uses negative electrodes made of microporous activated carbon with very high surface area. The result is a battery-supercapacitor hybrid that uses less lead."

     

    From Wikipedia re: Anode:

     

    " in a device which consumes power the anode is positive, and in a device which provides power the anode is negative"

     

    I suppose I had anode confused with cathode. That's why I used to just say "negative electrode", and will again, to hide my ignorance of the deeper definition.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Don't feel bad, I took that same route years ago because I kept screwing the two up.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    The DRI-100 (which was announced first) actually uses the word "pending:"

     

    Note that was has a "*" and actually has a note related to the "*" down below the "Efficiency" section.

     

    http://bit.ly/LJYl9e

     

    Wonder if they took the 100 spec sheet as a template and maybe didn't dot every I and cross every T for the 10.

     

    Guess it's time for an email, unless someone else with more technical expertise is interested in talking to them about the DRI-10 in a real world application and maybe even get some pricing information.

     

    I'm out of my depth of judging whether the DRI-10 might have made an interesting alternative to the Indy-Power based system. I do recall something about Indy being a "double inverter" that perhaps offers something really important to the high end video/music crowd.

     

    Which is not to say that might be a still useful product to be made from a DRI-10 system.

     

    I thought I saw a reference somewhere relatively recently that in a sense all these "powercube" type systems are customized to some extent.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "To avoid misconceptions, remember that the anode/cathode distinction is based on current, not voltage. Anode/cathode is not the same as positive/negative or vice versa. Illustrative example: for a battery being discharged, the positive terminal is the cathode, while for the same battery being recharged, the positive terminal is the anode."

     

    :)

     

    http://bit.ly/LJYKZw
    9 Jul 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I remembered JVeals' post and the follow-on comments, thanks. My take-away was that Axion has another way to improve the cycle life of the positive electrode (besides making the neg electrode activated carbon). Excerpt from the patent:

     

    "It is an advantage of the present invention that there is reduced likelihood of failure of a positive electrode and a hybrid energy storage device containing such a positive electrode."

     

    Did I get the essence right?
    9 Jul 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Maya, looks like your take-away was correct. From the recent patent:

     

    "The positive electrode of a hybrid energy storage device effectively defines the active life of the device. Just as with lead-acid batteries, the lead-based positive electrode typically fails before the negative electrode. Such failures are generally the result of the loss of active lead dioxide paste shedding from the current collector grid as a consequence of spalling and dimensional change deterioration that the active material undergoes during charging and discharging cycles."
    9 Jul 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Lol, I already say, "It depends" enough to make my friends w/ ADD faint.
    9 Jul 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Don't feel badly! IIRC, which is which also depends on if the battery has a liquid or solid electrolyte! From a look-up I did on Wikipedia, IIRC. Further, depending on if the device is being charged or discharged, it also changes. From memory, so I could definitely be wrong.

     

    If I'm not wrong ... So it's sort of like the stock market: if there's a way to keep us confused and uncertain and in the dark, they'll find it and use it!

     

    Yeah, I know it's likely based on some sound engineering principal and old Latin terminology, most likely, but if we can progress technically to makes things simpler, why not progress semantically towards clarity as well?

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    That's what I took from it Mr. I!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Come on HTL. You're talking about the country that was going to convert from English to metric about 40+ years ago so we wouldn't have to deal with this English crap. I've been building machines in English units and products in metric units for years. No worse, both mixed. What a PITA.

     

    I don't even think I've ever owned two cars at the same time that used the same socket for the oil drain plug. I know.......you still do that!?! :( (Yeah because I worked with mechanics that used to talk about what they'd do when they didn't feel like working.)

     

    Ease you say. IRS? Legal jargon? Building codes? Errr battery specs?
    9 Jul 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    No problem, Mr I. I was just trying to be clear. Easy to confuse.

     

    aNode is Negative/axioN, cathode is positive, both are electrodes.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    RK, I appreciate the correction. Accuracy matters a lot.

     

    Now, I hear they're making these things in some kinda castle, lol.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Hey, it's good to be remembered for a contribution. Thanks HTL for finding the link. I am at boy scout camp this week and only get to skim the posts part of the day.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    That's what my Inside Intel says, anyway. double ha.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • bankalchemist
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    all the investors in Symphony Bank lost 75% of their equity in 3 years. The Bank never made a penny of operational profitability. So for every $10.00 share they received $2.50, a Hershey Symphony candy bar, an over built location with a heated parking lot. All by the management of Steve Tolen.
    4 Sep 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    For anyone who never saw this here is a picture of the NS 999 before the external "cabinet or sheet metal", or whatever you call it, was applied. I hope Penn State helps them use better racking then the first time around.

     

    http://bit.ly/INYJCX
    8 Jul 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't critique the racking w/o closer inspection. Since much of the strength needed is met by structural strength, not material strength, in the directions most advantageous, it might actually be quite robust w/o appearing so.

     

    'Course max strength in all possible directions is not feasible, so the right circumstances could still wad it all up like paper.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I needed to find and post the other picture that supports my perspective. The "racking" was in fact stackable plastic containers.

     

    I wasn't as concerned about structure as I was airflow.

     

    There was a better picture somewhere but here you get some prespective.

     

    http://bit.ly/JXgnI0
    8 Jul 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I would expect something like this would be more appropriate for air flow. I would also say for future upgrade, but hey it's PBC.

     

    Anyway, I did see one Penn State link and it indicated they were well aware of the importance of racking for battery life and I doubt very much it's a secondary consideration this time with the PBC upgrade.

     

    http://bit.ly/PwbPKK
    8 Jul 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Ah! Airflow. I wasn't thinking of that - assumptions that the engineers certainly considered all that is my often erroneous assumption. So much so that I don't even think of it! :-((

     

    Well, plastic absorbs and retains heat less than metals? With adequate airflow, courtesy of venting fans, maybe that racking is "final configuration"? I have no idea.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    I constantly amazed at the number of interesting, and oft relevant, photographs that are out on the web.

     

    To a guy of my age, amazing. Reminds of my father and I watching the moon landing and he said he thought he'd never live long enough to see such a thing.

     

    I might be entering that same state now. ... <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Who would have ever thought that the level of information we have at our fingertips would ever happen.

     

    I still remember being amazed with the Motorola and Intel 6800/8080 processors. And connecting up to a customers computer at 32 baud but usually 16 baud with most days it being better to get in the car and drive there to update documents.

     

    I did look into one of the models of the lunar landers when the family took a trip to the Smithsonian. All I could think of was what a relic it looked like even though I could see the level of engineering that went into it given the period. That was after I thought to myself, Who would ever have the b$%ls to get into that thing, land it on the moon and take off again?!? Man oh man.
    8 Jul 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Another Princeton Power Systems product - http://tinyurl.com/6nl...

     

    Looks like, sounds like a PowerCube with no mention of PbC, per se.
    "The system is built on 100kW inverter building-blocks, and can support several battery technologies including sealed lead-acid, large-format lithium-iron-phosphate, and hybrid lead-acid. Each ESS includes all disconnects, connection points, and safety systems needed based on the size of the system and technology employed."
    8 Jul 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    One person's perspective ... thoughts?

     

    http://bit.ly/NgDY28

     

    "Axion

     

    Slightly Bearish

     

    Why pay $400 for a battery when I can get a regular one for $200 and $50 for a capacitor stack?

     

    If Maxwell releases a capacitor to replace a start-stop battery, stock price will collapse

     

    If they lump the battery warranty in the emissions this may justify the case for purchasing this over the AGM. Have to replace the AGM twice to justify a $400 cost."
    8 Jul 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: Did a very quick read - not a thorough analysis. But this caught my eye and makes me think there's not a good understanding of the role of the PbC.

     

    "If Maxwell releases a capacitor to replace a start-stop battery, stock price will collapse".

     

    In micro to mild hybrid I believe we have determined that the PbC is intended for hotel loads because of the DCA. The starter energy source and demand has no impact on the applicability of the PbC in these arenas.

     

    So, as far as his assessment for AXPW, I discount the opinion as being ignorant.

     

    I just hope it the author and not me who is so.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "I discount the opinion as being ignorant. ... I just hope it the author and not me who is so."

     

    I try to ask myself this question on a regular basis.
    8 Jul 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Had a similar reaction, HTL. Also had questions as to the accuracy of his price guesstimates for ultracaps and AGM replacement batteries. Automotive AGM batteries have a wide price range with several topping $225 in automotive aftermarket.

     

    But, the blog did focus on highly pertinent issues like battery warranties and EPA emissions standards. OTOH, discussion of EPA rules and battery warranties made no distinction between viable batteries and batteries capable of S/S support throughout the year (including hot & cold weather).

     

    :-) And I share the hope expressed.
    8 Jul 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    I thought the basic focus of the article was reasonable. But he equated the PbC to a starter battery, which is not its intended primary use, was unaware of the actual lifetime, in cycles, that we already know about and then made calls based on his incomplete and inaccurate take that AXPW would suffer if something like a super-cap came out at a terrific price for a starter application.

     

    Unusual for me, I left a brief comment about that particular ... "forecast".

     

    Odd that although he linked to couple of John's articles, he is apparently unaware of the intended use of the PbC, actual demonstrated (in the lab at least) cycle life, must not have seen the "White Paper" freely available on the Axion site, is unaware of the importance of the DCA characteristics, ... etc.

     

    Before I wrote my first published articles on NG, I knew nothing about it. But I did do the necessary research and was able to correctly understand what was going on and predict, about a half-year to a year in advance (I forget which now), what storage levels would be and missed by only ~6% (IIRC), which I felt was reasonable considering everything and the fact that I was a novice in all that.

     

    I would hope that others would expend as much effort if they undertake to write articles or blogs that make calls that might affect the actions of others.

     

    That apparent lack is what bothers me.

     

    HardToLove.
    8 Jul 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    HTL > "I would hope that others would expend as much effort if they undertake to write articles or blogs that make calls that might affect the actions of others.

     

    That apparent lack is what bothers me."

     

    :-) Me thinks you have higher personal standards than several other blog authors (and it is appreciated by many).
    8 Jul 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I read that Instablog when it was published and found it amazing that one person could make so many profound errors in a single piece.

     

    Sometimes, the best work of others isn't even worth criticizing because there's no room for education.
    9 Jul 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I saw that a couple days after it came out. I didn't find much value in it so I didn't post it. Must be not many found it because still zero comments. Perhaps he should have flagged it better? Or maybe not.

     

    I'm still wondering why everyone is leaning on a 400 USD cost for this. I do not think it will be that much when scaled. Right now sure. They have an electrode line running at half rate. A factory that is underutilized and a less than state of the art VRLA battery line relative to automation.

     

    I don't think if BMW thought this was going to stay at 400+ USD they would be at the level of testing they are at. They care and they know.
    8 Jul 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: The $400 is based on a SWAG (by JP originally?) of ~$150 premium over the top-flite AGM, which was estimated to be ~$250 IIRC.

     

    Until we have something better to go on, it sounds reasonable for an *estimate*, which as you know is always imprecise. But if we hit +/- $50, I'll think that was reasonable for when and under what circumstances the estimate was made.

     

    As to economies of scale, sure. And as JP has pointed out, we're in the upper left quadrant of the cost and process improvement chart.

     

    But for early selling prices I think we have to assume: 1) We don't want to lose money on every battery we sell, 2) economies of scale and cost reductions haven't yet kicked in, 3) the value proposition justifies a higher price that our customers will see as justified (i.e. both parties benefit in the transaction from the perspective). Support of this *may* exist in Ford's premium charge to the customer for their s/s offering. And that s/s system won't work long in many cases.

     

    So unless something that can do the same or better job at a much better price is available before the PbC, keep the price high and go for all the margin we can get. Those days won't last forever - take advantage while we can.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Actually, the $400 guess is spot-on for the first raft of batteries Axion sold to NS. It works out to about $800 per kWh. Mercifully Axion is at the upper left hand corner of the learning curve and as manufacturing technology improves and supply chains get more robust costs will plummet. We're not likely to hear TG touting future economies of scale, but they'll most certainly be there.

     

    A while back I did some back of the napkin calculations on the bill of materials for a PbC battery vs an AGM and came out close enough to even that the difference was immaterial. Even if the costs were significantly different, however, the decision would still be $250 for a battery that can't do the required work or $400 for one that can.
    9 Jul 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I agree iindelco. After I posted it, I looked at some of his comments and it looks as if this poster has posted some misinformation on some of JP's articles ...
    8 Jul 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Related to one of our potential markets, the grid, this video about a possible slowdown in wind-power additions is of interest.

     

    If the link doesn't work, google

     

    "Wind industry worries over potential slowdown" video mark peters

     

    http://on.wsj.com/NSAP8D

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jul 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    I cannot fully agree with the articles premise, however :-

     

    " if they introduce a capacitor stock price will collapse" it has already collapsed, in my opinion ( .34c), and surely may only move upward from here !
    9 Jul 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    JR: LoL!

     

    I love it! You gave a good laugh to start the week off!

     

    So you imply he's a total flop as a soothsayer - attempting to accurately predict the *PAST* and can't get his facts straight, mostly, even then!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Grrr. Here we go again. Millions more being poured into biofuel:

     

    http://bit.ly/NUQvbr
    9 Jul 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Maya> What a total waste of money. There is a good chance the government is going to bring down the country on our heads over the next 12 months. We're starting to look way to much like Greece these days.
    9 Jul 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    For history buffs, the last time AXPW traded above $.35 was May 30th and the last time it closed above $.35 was May 29th. It's looking like HTL's murky crystal ball may be working after all.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Only 2 1/2 hrs into the trading day, but nice start. Actually traded above 35 cents, and volume up. The iron ceiling is starting to crack?
    9 Jul 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As of 11:51 a.m. the average price of the first 171,296 shares traded was $.3501.
    9 Jul 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Then what looked like a mkt sell order for about 55k shares hit at 12:07pm. Still a good day so far, though, overall.
    9 Jul 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Would like to see the pedal to the metal on volume. I feel a change in the air, but maybe what I am feeling is where the dog bit me.
    9 Jul 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (707) | Send Message
     
    So i stop back in to check and see nothing really has changed yet. Was hoping for some good news to start reinvesting but i guess i will wait another month.

     

    Good luck guys...

     

    map
    9 Jul 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    What rabbit hole did this guy fall down?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I considered commenting on his article via the article's page. But that might help get it attention. So I decided to comment here instead.

     

    He seems to be making many of the same major mistakes others that have lost their shirts before him have, like leaving out a cost discussion.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's another one of those articles where I'm forced to either stay quiet or write a book correcting a litany of major and minor errors.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    And it tells me there's still some dumb money in AONE. But since it's back down to about a dollar, I'm not planning to short it.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Another example of an hour's worth of thought and three google searches.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I was particularly impressed with his analysis of Valence, a company that needs $60 million of new capital to be broke. I guess hope springs eternal.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Free offer; Required for those compelled to make the data presented work.

     

    http://bit.ly/NfuNCl
    9 Jul 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Where's the brownies?

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I don't know if you can call it "medical" if you package it in such a manner. I'd hate to "bait and switch" on the way into that read.
    9 Jul 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    The brownies were not intended to be the carrier, they are intended to satisfy the following "munchies"! I should have been more clear.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Hadn't really looked at the Axion stock chart for a couple of months, the flat top over the last few weeks at .35 gives it an interesting look.

     

    http://bit.ly/MgNk04
    9 Jul 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't gonna say much because the last time I drew a correlation between last years chart before the run-up and this years chart things did not quite pan out. But the flat-top you refer to is very reminiscent of the flat-top at .58 in January '11 then one day a million shares traded and the flat-top morphed into a mohawk.
    9 Jul 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    A new article on the Saft/Viridity PA train project.

     

    Harnessed braking energy to boost e-trains

     

    http://bit.ly/L48Um4
    9 Jul 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Harnessed braking energy to boost e-trains

     

    http://bit.ly/L48Um4"

     

    Interesting info, iidelco. Thanks

     

    The SEPTA braking project looks to me from afar as though made to order for PbC batteries. All-in cost of the project would be interesting. News reports have highlighted a $900K Pennsylvania grant for the project but other contributor outlays have not been mentioned. I haven't looked, or tried to look at any Saft quarterly/annual reports that might illuminate what their company investment in the project has been or what the TA itself has funded.

     

    Has anyone else looked into total project cost?
    9 Jul 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "Saft's batteries are located in a substation that serves five or six stations on the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority's (SEPTA's) electric elevated train line"

     

    Not sure how to read this ... can the batteries service all 5 or 6 stations?

     

    Anyway, I hadn't considered that it wasn't 1 to 1 battery set to station.

     

    My *guess* is this makes it more likely to be deployed either faster or on a wider basis than I might have imagined in these cash strapped government times.
    10 Jul 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Yeah. If the stations all share the same circuit (common third rail) with the battery they can all use the battery for dynamic braking or acceleration. The timing of the trains coming into/departing the stations would want to be set such that too many trains are not sourcing or sinking energy at the same time. There would be some line losses depending on the resistance of the rail/unit length for each station but this can all be calculated and compensated for if it makes economic sense.

     

    I like this if you have a certain number of trains, the distance between stations is appropriate, there are enough trains and you already have electrified units. You should be able to get away with less storage given the right timing between trains and you're not hauling the mass around.

     

    It's actually better for LABs and more importantly for PBC for this reason. The mass of the storage unit is not important. Probably the PBC is better than LABs because of the charge acceptance and better than lithium because of the cost. Mass is more of a problem in this case if you were moving around because you are not moving high mass so you don't need the traction. That's why NS is not as worried about the mass for their yard switchers..
    10 Jul 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've read several times that lead-mass is valuable in rail because it improves steel on steel traction for the locomotive.
    11 Jul 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... The area of adhesion in locomotive is only about 15 mm across and it is extremely important the mass of a locomotive needs to very heavy to move 100s of tons.

     

    "The contact zone (roughly 1 cm2) between a railway wheel and rail is small compared with their overall dimensions and its shape depends not only on the rail and wheel geometry but also on how the wheel meets the rail influence, i.e., lateral position and angle of wheel relative to the rail ..."
    [ Handbook of Railway Vehicle Dynamics; 2006 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC; Section II ]

     

    http://bit.ly/NkYZfe

     

    Rail adhesion from Wikipedia

     

    http://bit.ly/NgrJXG
    11 Jul 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if this was posted already I didn't see it. Haven't red it yet.

     

    Guest Post: EV Myths and Realities, Part 1—The Battery Crisis

     

    http://bit.ly/MdPiwL
    9 Jul 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That one showed up on SA a couple weeks ago. I have to love anybody who starts his analysis that a single use could lay claim to 20% of global reserves of one or more metals – not annual production mind you - total proved reserves.

     

    The author's a smart kid, but he has no clue how the world works.
    9 Jul 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Hi all. Back from vacation. Don't remember this being posted in the past, but an interesting read. They don't have a lot of nice things to say about the Li-ion chemistries coming down the pike.

     

    http://bit.ly/NkDECS
    9 Jul 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv Concentrator 122, July 3rd 6:12 PM

     

    “Mr I, I have no doubt what you say is valid to a large degree, but I am certain the announcement of product for sale and avenues for purchase would do no harm and might help. And, at this point, virtually ANY PbC sale whether to "big boys" or small fry are significant in terms of business and revenue growth.

     

    Visit any website for newspapers operating on the East Coast between (and including) Baltimore, MD - Richmond, Va and one can see citizen and political official complaints of power outages continuing for large numbers of homes since a wind storm hit the area ~10:30 - 11:00pm last Friday. The volume and severity of criticism is, seems to me, greatest for areas severed by PEPCO in DC, MD. I certainly hope Rosewater Energy, Axion, Viridity Energy or all of the above have contacted the power distributors serving the storm damaged area regarding PowerCubes. If not CHANGE is needed and needed forthwith. (Rosewater Energy was apprised of unhappiness with PEPCO's reliability of service and response to storm damage late last year.)”

     

    I thought the above comment from earlier in the week would make a nice intro to the following info from the annual meeting cocktail party.

     

    I asked an insider if there are any non-disclosure requirements regarding the power cube performance. The answer was no, there are no restrictions. The individual then went on to in effect suggest that we (I took it as us Axionistas) ought to be encouraging management to publicize the performance data from the power cube.

     

    I didn’t say so at the time, but I was quite shocked to hear something like that. I don’t mean about the lack of a non-disclosure requirement, but about the idea that we could have any influence at all or that anyone involved would want us to get involved in that way.

     

    Given all that is going on with the new FERC rules and the lawsuits etc. I believe that real operating data from Axion would certainly give important ammunition to the proponents of the new rules. Of course, the power cube is likely being used for many different kinds of testing (don’t forget Norfolk Southern) and is not dedicated for power smoothing. Additionally, while the cube seemed to be very busy during our tour (there were multiple charge/discharge cycles going on per hour) and Mr. Dickinson’s presentation had a graph that showed 7-8 such events in a one hour period, he also stated during the tour that activity had increased substantially of late (my assumption was since the start of summer). Therefore, there might be limited data with many breaks for other testing.

     

    Still, I think Axion can likely show that its operating data is consistent with test data from multiple sources including Penn State. Also, I would think that an insider who is almost certainly familiar with the data would only advocate publishing data if it where positive. Matching this data with a price tag of some sort (NS price) would enable FERC and public interest groups to calculate reasonable economic estimates that would support the proposed rule changes. I see this as analogous to auto start-stop. If Axion had its own data from its own test fleet (I know this isn’t practical) wouldn’t we all want the company to publicize that data?

     

    I also thought this information to be very important even though I haven’t taken any other action – yet. Thoughts?

     

    PS: This Power Cube info and the Auto-related post from the weekend were the two key points from the meeting that I felt it important to communicate. No hat-trick from me.
    9 Jul 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Somewhat related to the above.
    Notes from the talk given by Enders Dickinson, R&D Director, at the Annual Meeting.

     

    Rather than repeat what has been said and is commonly known in our community, here are a couple of points that may be interesting and hopefully not too redundant.

     

    Dr. Dickinson started his presentation by saying the one phrase he wanted the audience to take away from the meeting was “Operational Stability”, or what we laymen might call string equalization or self-balancing of the charge. As the state of charge of a PbC battery increases it’s rate of charge erodes. Therefore, the lagging cells or batteries tend to catch up. I mention this, not so much because this is new, but because Enders thought the point was important enough to make the centerpiece of his presentation. He went on to say that no other battery shared this characteristic.

     

    He contrasted this passive operational stability inherent to the PbC to the active monitoring and management of the charging state and heating of Lithium Ion Cells (Building on Vani Dantam’s presentation which to a large degree was a direct attack on Lithium Ion). He emphasized the myriad points of failure for Lithium Ion.
    Likewise, while it is easy to track the state of charge of a PbC cell (check the voltage), it is much harder to do with a lithium ion cell and that it cannot always be done accurately.

     

    Later in the presentation, Enders noted that approximately 1% of the storage capability of a PbC battery is cycled during a typical stop-start event. I asked him if this would make it possible to downsize the battery. He said no because the declining voltage level becomes important when the battery is more significantly discharged.

     

    Question for JP: In the past you have described estimates for the size of the hoteling load in watt seconds. Based on a .5hwh battery and a two-battery system, would the load be 1%?

     

    BTW, I find this 1% number to be disappointing. It seems that the PbC can only supply high quality power over huge number of cycles if the cycles are very small. I’m writing a separate analytical piece about this point (which 481086 also commented on earlier today).
    9 Jul 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall, I, too, was a little surprised that Enders talked about using only 1% of the energy available.

     

    Further reflection gave me two positives.

     

    1) There is a tremendous reserve against abuse. Even if the minute off stretches to two minutes, and the a/c and wipers and headlights and USB ports for telephones and electric defrosters and inverter (in the cigarette lighter) and the kids are playing with the electric seat motors and windows and honking the horn like crazy and .... are all going at max, and the battery is 5 or 10 years old, it still is going to work.

     

    2) The 1% number is based on a theoretical capacity assuming you discharge all the way down to 2 or 3 volts. None of the car's nominal-12 volt systems are going to be happy at much below 11 volts. Extracting the energy from 10 volts to 3 is more complicated and needs heavier wiring, and is not worth the incremental cost (and decrease in robustness).

     

    Note that some important car stuff, such as headlights, will operate, albeit more dimly, even at low voltage. A lot of secondary stuff, such as inverters, USB, chargers, sound system, etc. will cut off and reduce the load. This would only happen if there is a defect in the starting circuit that delays the engine restart, but does add robustness.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "Dr. Dickinson started his presentation by saying the one phrase he wanted the audience to take away from the meeting was “Operational Stability”, or what we laymen might call string equalization or self-balancing of the charge..........He went on to say that no other battery shared this characteristic."

     

    I think this an important point with regard to 48 volt automobile systems where the Ultrabattery might initially be seen as a good enough competitor. It's not KIAS. This might have also have been a key consideration for NS, as well as DCA.
    9 Jul 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    What's interesting to me is how what voltage works best for stop/start has unfolded over the past year.

     

    Last year, at this time, I was under the impression that one 12V PbC plus a cheapo cranking battery would be sufficient for stop/start.

     

    Now we're talking four times the voltage, and either four 12V PbCs or three 16V 30HTs.

     

    In my simpleton mind, if some outfit buys into Axion products, we just went from one 12V battery per car, to three 16V batteries per car.

     

    What's not to like?

     

    I also think any ideas of a 42V battery just don't make sense from how the battery will be configured/designed. Seven 6V batteries? Or one large 42V battery? That would take a power wench or a fork lift to move it?
    9 Jul 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    Great thoughts APM!

     

    While thinking of the 1%, I wonder if the discussion in the past of a 16V PbC operated around the 80% SOC charge has beneficial effect.

     

    ISTR that we thought that might be the ticket.

     

    The only downside, if it was that, was slightly reduced energy content. But I also seem to recall that it wasn't considered an issue in the real-world scenarios.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Maya wrote:............"power wench".

     

    I think I saw one of those in a Munich beer hall (coincidentally the home of BMW). I also like the sound of 3 batteries per car.
    9 Jul 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Right on the line!

     

    http://bit.ly/Mh8rPV
    9 Jul 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    was actually thinking along the lines of:
    http://bit.ly/MW0Zws

     

    which would break my reed-like svelte arms.
    9 Jul 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    It really is interesting that our boundaries for potential PbC applications have expanded so much. I just hope the OEM's are as enthusiastic.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Maya said, "I also think any ideas of a 42V battery just don't make sense from how the battery will be configured/designed."

     

    My thoughts are that 42V nominal for the electrical bus would need to be at the ~80% PSOC of a set of PbC batteries to take advantage of that sweet spot for most efficient DCA and lowest impedance. We discussed this back on APC 115. The discussion was based on figures from the Axion white paper JP provided (see fig 13): http://bit.ly/LV29Yz

     

    Four 12V PbC batteries in a string gives 48V with each fully charged to nominal 12V, but running in the optimally efficient PSOC around 10 to 11V, you get 40-44V, which would be the operating range of the the 42V nominal system.

     

    Using 16V PbC x 3 would be an alternate option. My guestimate is that the most efficient PSOC voltage for that string would also be around 42V, rather than the nominal 48V of fully charged state.

     

    If the 16V PbC battery fits the same case at the 12V, but uses fewer plates per cell and 8 cells instead of 6, then you would still only need one Hofbrauhaus wench to haul that string.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin,

     

    I think you're misunderstanding the voltage curve for lead-acid batteries. (warning: my understanding stems from traditional lead-acid. I do not think PbC varies significantly in the voltage curve, but I could be mistaken).

     

    At 100% state of charge, a typical Pb-acid battery is at about 12.6V. At 80% charge, it only drops a few milivolts to maybe 12.55V. At 50% SOC, it might hit around 12.3V.

     

    In other words, voltage does not drop linearly, nor does it drop proportionately to state of charge. The actual relationship involves the square of the voltage IIRC.

     

    Note the graph on the second page of this short article on lead acid charging graphs. Ignore the dark black lines (showing voltage while charging) -- the light gray line at the bottom shows the voltage at rest at various charge states.
    http://bit.ly/M0oAuO
    10 Jul 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter,

     

    Please read the Axion paper in my link above, pertaining to the DCA characteristics of the PbC. Specifically, in section 3.2:

     

    >>
    Battery DCA Results
    The DKE EN-50342-6 test result for an Axion PbC®
    battery is shown in Figure 11. The battery is discharged
    to 10 volts (~80% SOC) and cycled according to the
    DCA cycle test shown in Figure 4. As mentioned above,
    the negative plate is no longer lead-based and thus not
    limited by the dissolution/deposition mechanism during
    charging. As a result, the charge acceptance is the
    maximum 100 Amps of the test specification for over
    three years of equivalent vehicle operation (40,000
    cycles).<<

     

    The optimal portion of the charge-discharge loop according to figure 13 is in the 10-11V range for the PbC, and Axion states that 80% PSOC is 10V. I am basing my thinking on these data, rather than conventional LAB characteristics.

     

    The advantage of PbC in the microhybrid paradigm is precisely these DCA and life cycle characteristics that distinguish it from conventional LAB or AGM. Add the KIAS "operational stability" and even the best AGM looks like a dinosaur in a 48V system.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The PbC is an odd device because it's voltage curve does have a linear decline. The positive electrode in a PbC is electrochemical and it behaves like any other positive lead-acid battery electrode. The negative electrode in a PbC is capacitive and it has a very linear voltage drop. If you draw a 1" x 1" square that represents the positive electrode and then stack right triangle with 1" vertical and horizontal sides on top, the descending diagonal line on the triangle will give you a pretty good picture of how the battery behaves.

     

    The great thing about the voltage drop is that it remains constant for the life of the battery and provides a very easy way to get a very precise measurement of the state of charge.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Aargh, my mistake. Thanks for the quick correction!
    10 Jul 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3105) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter - IIRC, the discharge curve for bio-carbon batteries (PbC) is essentially linear from about 3 volts to 16, unlike flooded. A direct voltage reading is an accurate measure of remaining energy.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Okay that's 3 times on the KIAS acronym ... what is that? Surely I'm not the only one in the dark.
    10 Jul 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    wtb > "Okay that's 3 times on the KIAS acronym ... what is that?"

     

    KIAS = King in a string
    10 Jul 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, we're gonna have to work on that Google ranking :-)

     

    Thanks.
    10 Jul 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A 500 wh battery has 1.8 million watt seconds of energy.

     

    The Ford-BMW stop-start testing cycle load is:

     

    * 48 amps for 60 seconds = 34,560 watt seconds; plus
    * 300 amps for 1 second = 3,600 watt seconds; followed by
    * 100 amps of charging current until optimal SOC is reached; plus
    * 7 amps for 60 seconds = 5,040 watt seconds

     

    For each cycle, the total energy drain is 43,200 watt seconds, or a little over 2% of the total energy capacity of a single battery.

     

    The Ford-BMW test cycle is not a limitation on what the PbC can do. It's a limitation on what the automakers expect it to do.

     

    For Gen-2 micro hybrids with sailing and recuperative braking, the loads will be much higher. We haven't heard about those tests, but I'll guarantee they're well under way.

     

    The automakers only required enough DCA for a 100 amp charge current so that's all we heard about.

     

    It turns out that NS needs enough DCA for a 200 amp charge current so now we're starting to hear news of that capability.

     

    The bottom line is we don't know what the battery's limitations are. The only thing we know for sure is that it's good enough for BMW and good enough for Norfolk Southern. We've also had hints that it's good enough for hybrid Class 8 trucks.

     

    If you're building a supersonic aircraft you test it subsonic first before opening it up to see what it can do. I don't think PbC testing to date has been any different. We don't know enough for rational disappointment.

     

    Show me the failure points and I'll be concerned. Until we see failure points, I'm as happy as a clam at high tide.
    9 Jul 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    > "I'm as happy as a clam at high tide. </i>

     

    :-) Underwater is good for clams. I'd rather be dry.
    9 Jul 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I grew a set of gills years ago.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    A hot topic at Intersolar this week: energy storage

     

    http://bit.ly/LK0Vw4
    9 Jul 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    John: By stating that the battery couldn't be made smaller, Enders' seemed to be saying that the limitations were close enough to matter. Admittedly, if he'd said anything else, that would have yielded information that the company may not want to share.

     

    He responded to my question quickly and with confidence, making me think that he was speaking honestly and straightforwardly. I like your scenario much better!
    9 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You wouldn't want to make the battery smaller or it wouldn't have the power it needs for the application. With an appropriately sized battery, however, you might very well want to bump the current draw per cycle by a couple (few) hundred percent. It's all a trade off between the energy you use during an engine off cycle and the energy you can recover during an engine on cycle. The current Ford-BMW cycle is their minimum need. Their Gen-2 scenario is more aggressive.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Even for a pure capacitor, 1% energy lose only causes its voltage to drop around 0.5%( Energy stored U=0.5CV*V http://bit.ly/LLeETf). 12Volt's 0.5% is only 60mv which makes no difference in such a Start/Stop system. Anyone could simply do the math.

     

    I second to JP that power is the limit. It is not an easy job for a 16V 40ah battery to give away 50amps and receive twice of that current outside of a lab.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    A little off topic but...

     

    Beer and pretzels at the EPA tomorrow.

     

    Patriot Coal Files for Bankruptcy Protection in New York

     

    I guess it was expected.

     

    http://yhoo.it/L4Avnk;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    http://bloom.bg/Mh8T0x
    9 Jul 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Someone mentioned Coda. Here's some info.

     

    Coda aims high

     

    http://bit.ly/OSNxcn
    9 Jul 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco: Thanks! I've added it, with thanks to you, in a comment in my UQM instablog.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks for taking the time sir!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, No problem.

     

    That's why we're here.
    10 Jul 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Eos raises add'l funds. I think this was last touched on in concentrator 87. Looks like some interesting future world stuff.

     

    Energy Storage Update: Zinc-Air and Frozen Air Move Forward

     

    http://bit.ly/MebqqS

     

    http://bit.ly/MebqqW
    9 Jul 2012, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    BMW rolls out new models equipped with Nuance speech-recognition technology

     

    http://bo.st/OrFmjA

     

    Hopefully a sign of things to come.
    9 Jul 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I am afraid my personal circumstances will most likely require me to sell my AXPW at a huge loss percentage-wise since I am averaged at .83 cents, but there will probably be nothing I can do to prevent it. If that happens I will still maintain the APC Website and look forward to an opportunity to rebuy when my circumstances change for the better. Perhaps early in 2013. I will refrain from making any judgmental comments once I am no longer holding the stock.

     

    My selling will be forced, not as the result of any desire to sell my AXPW. I am still holding the stock at the moment and I have a meeting with an attorney tomorrow that will tell the tale. Comes under the heading "sh*t happens." Not the end of the world for me, so I'll just roll with the punches and see what happens.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Hope things work out better than you anticipate, BW. If it proves necessary to liquidate your AXPW position(s), hopefully you will have at least a few weeks before you begin.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Bang, Sorry to hear you are having some personal issues that require you to have to make unwanted adjustments. Best of luck to you and yours while you work through whatever it is that requires your attention. Stop by whenever you need a little distraction and know we're rooting for you.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to hear that BW. Your work and dedication to maintaining the APC website has been remarkable. I hope things turn around. All the best.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Very sorry to hear about this bangwhiz.

     

    You will always be an Axionista, owning or not.

     

    I have very much valued your input and gracious help over the past year. Thanks so much for all you have done.

     

    Truly hoping whatever is occuring, you get beyond it quickly, and will heal soon.

     

    I will miss your humor, and sage insight.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    bangwhiz,
    Hope things work out for the best. Life is rarely fair.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3549) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    Hope things work out. Please stay in touch and thanks for your hard work.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Bang, just want to echo the comments of gratitude and all best wishes. And empathy. Sometimes we outrun the train, sometimes it plumb runs us down. But hopefully there is an 'up' from 'flat'. Ask not for whom the whistle blows... .... I may be joining you on the (t)rack ere long.
    10 Jul 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    BW, First off thank you again for all your efforts over the years.

     

    Also I'll say that I peeled off some in late 2011 myself but don't mind the thought off tax write-offs going forward since I do think I'll get to use them eventually. Heck, I even had to watch it run from .25 to .60 not long after I lightened up so I feel your pain some.

     

    I do hope your future allows you to use your AXPW write-offs too and I think if you can hold out a few shares till Summer's end then we/you will see above .50 to help mitigate the loss.

     

    I may avg down again when I get my extended tax return refund before Oct. Then again I've been know to be fooled twice but sometimes I hit the jackpot when I chase those Vegas slots. =)

     

    Anyhow I hope to see you come brighter days for us all. Scuba gear (and life) does indeed get heavy at times.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    Sorry to hear about your unfortunate circumstances.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    BangWhiz: Sorry to hear that. Personally, I think having good prospects dashed by things beyond our control is one of the most distressing situations.

     

    I know you will take it in stride but I'm sure all of us are empathetic since life surely has dealt such setbacks to all.

     

    I have my fingers crossed that the "tell the tale" has a good ending and you are able to keep your plans for AXPW, and other stuff, in place.

     

    Our wishes are for your successful navigation of the difficult waters.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I'm sorry to hear also. I understand. I have had to sell some in my cash account for financial needs. I hope I can being holding some when the price goes up. Hope you will also be able to buy back in later and catch the elevator going up.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Bang, you have to be the most resilient person I know. Those that pay attention can learn a lot from how you approach your challenges. Best of luck and I know we all wish you nothing but the best and an evening out of *life* SOON.

     

    Even if you miss the next "mini" one, I bet there are yet to be many runs over many years in AXPW which you will be able to take advantage of with a little good luck and a little help from your many friends here.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thank you to everyone who wished me well. I am grateful for the many kind words and the friendships I have with my fellow Axionistas. I hired an attorney today to try and buy me some time. If you string up enough barbed wire some people decide it isn't worth it to try and prevail in court and they just go away. So for now I'll hold the stock, but I won't know for a month or two how successful I will be in buying time, or for how long.

     

    There is a light at the end of the tunnel. My girlfriend in DC is going to visit me in Atlanta for a week in August. All this other stuff is just noise and BS compared to her visit. (:>D)
    10 Jul 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Good luck Bangwhiz. Sorry that you're under pressure and have to involve lawyers. Glad to see you have life in perspective - admirable big picture view. Best to you in all endeavors.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    Bang-
    I'm sorry; I hope things work out well.

     

    Gordon
    10 Jul 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    bw

     

    Be strong...stay strong...yes, sh** does happen.
    Take care.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Earlier iindelco noted that Patriot Coal Corp had filed for bankruptcy. Me thinks points noted in the news article hold strong implications for :Norfolk Southern's capital investment program and heighten risks that a battery order for an OTR locomotive will not be forthcoming this year. Points of note include
    <
    Patriot has 13 active mining complexes in Appalachia and the Illinois Basin and controls an estimated 1.9 billion tons of coal reserves, according to its website. It sells thermal coal to electricity generators and metallurgical coal to steel and coke producers.
    <
    Patriot's area of operations is within NSC's rail network.

     

    <
    U.S. coal use in the first quarter was the lowest for that period since 1988, according to the Energy Information Administration. Utilities have switched some power plants to cheaper natural gas as regulations restricting emissions make coal costlier to burn. Gas fell to a decade low in April amid a surplus of the fuel.

     

    This year, Patriot has reduced thermal coal production by more than 4 million tons, trimmed costs and laid off 1,000 employees or contractors, according to a May 9 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
    <
    In other words, through May 9 power plants have curtailed coal purchases from Patriot rather sharply and Patriot has responded by reducing production and laying off workers. That is, lower coal demand from domestic customers has not been offset by increased demand from foreign buyers.

     

    <
    The company postponed closing a $625 million, 9.5 percent five-year loan after saying May 14 that a key customer might default on a contract for coal that had fallen as much as $30 a ton below the original contracted price. The same day, the company cut a 2012 forecast for sales of steelmaking coal.

     

    On June 1, Patriot filed a complaint in federal court in Charleston, West Virginia, alleging that Fort Meyers, Florida- based Keystone Industries LLC breached a contract to buy “hundreds of thousands of tons” of coal.
    <

     

    Patriot lost another large customer in May (and NSC transport tonnage dropped further).
    9 Jul 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The important thing to remember with companies like Patriot is that the productive assets (e.g. the mines) emerge from bankruptcy even if the company is flushed. Regardless of what happens to Patriot, the mines are not going away and their production will still need to be transported to market.

     

    Norfolk Southern earns $2 billion a year from rail operations. Minor disruptions in the operations of a single customer are not going to change it's strategic technology development plans.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Norfolk Southern earns $2 billion a year from rail operations. Minor disruptions in the operations of a single customer are not going to change it's strategic technology development plans. "

     

    The article mentions reduced coal shipments to steel makers so there is reason to suspect NSC is seeing reduced traffic from more than one industry and far more than "a single customer." Further, I doubt that Patriot Coal is the only coal producer adversely affected by increased use of natural gas in power generation and industry.

     

    Reduced traffic volumes can be expected to result in reduced free cash flow, reduced short-term demand for locomotives, and lower fuel expense. Scaling back capital equipment expenditures in the face of falling revenues and falling traffic volumes is more than a little prudent, particularly in the face of reasonable expectation for multi-year episode of reduced transport demand. And, since virtually all, if not all, of their locomotive equipment purchases would reduce NSC fuel use I'm inclined to suspect developmental R&D investments are lower priority than proven technology that can be used effectively throughout the NSC system.

     

    I will be delighted if events prove me wrong, but I don't expect an OTR locomotive battery order in 2012.
    10 Jul 2012, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that EPA requirements are still in place.
    10 Jul 2012, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Please pardon my lack of clarity.

     

    My thought was that railroads still need to conform to EPA standards so regardless of load levels they will still be required to clean up their act and so the use of electric locomotives must increase.
    10 Jul 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1693) | Send Message
     
    Saw the following and thought it might be relevant to the conversation:

     

    US Freight Rail has Biggest June Ever
    http://wny.cc/PGM8XS
    10 Jul 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    AB,
    True, but that probably will have more of an impact on the yard switchers rather than the OTR locomotives. I'm still hoping the order will go through, since it is only one unit, and NS will have already made plans for its use in the coming year. Time will tell.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand, with oil dropping so much, I presume diesel prices are also down. One would expect a smart company like NSC to lock in some very good rates, certainly at prices lower than they expected or possibly dreamed of (though I admit I haven't looked at how the longer dated prices have changed.)

     

    I've never gotten the impression NSC was "all in" on the AXPW front. I just don't think it's THAT big an investment for them relative to the size of the company. They're certainly not putting all their research eggs in the AXPW basket. So I don't see the coal thing, while significant, altering their plans or timetable. It's also not like they haven't seen it coming for a while. They're smart guys, and they've been around a long time.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    DL > http://wny.cc/PGM8XS

     

    Thanks.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Best news I've seen in a while given the lackluster recent job growth *statistics* (cause who knows what it REALLY is with all the seasonality adjustments!)

     

    Thanks for posting ... cheered up my day!
    10 Jul 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... There is no doubt that things in the coal fields will be tough for the next 3 years. By then, export terminals will be expanded and built for coal and for NatGas ... if things continue as planned. What will happen is that gas prices will rise to approaching world prices. With so many coal fired plants reaching "end-of-life", I'm looking for modernized plants to go into construction sometime 2015-17.

     

    http://bit.ly/PxhBwM

     

    Norfolk Southern has some lean times coming but I doubt they will stop getting ready for what's next.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    DRich: That's a great resource you linked.

     

    Thanks to you for sharing it!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    DR > http://bit.ly/PxhBwM

     

    Very informative. Thanks!
    10 Jul 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Wow, that's a pretty optimistic timetable on the Nat Gas exports.

     

    Are you assuming a Republican sweep and big push to piss away one of the things (boom in American energy production growth, leading to low prices, moving in the right direction on energy independence) that is actually helping create a few more manufacturing jobs and improving our trade deficit?

     

    Even Canada had to delay their planned big terminal for a year:
    http://bit.ly/NZB3Ls

     

    Much like the AXPW stock price for or so long, it's hard to resist betting on the "under" on things working out just right for rapid LNG export growth. Just too many things that could go wrong in my opinion. Don't know which one it will be, just think it likely there will be at least one that slows things down. Which is not to say we won't get there eventually ...
    10 Jul 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Politically, I view the election as being between 2 Republican choices and it doesn't matter really because the multinationals will still rule the USA. On NatGas, there are companies like Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG), Enterprise Products Partners LP (http://bit.ly/ptsSg1) and others with existing import terminals that are quickly transforming to export. The mega terminal of (http://bit.ly/rmHAbP) may take a little longer.

     

    The big problem I have with the USA NatGas surplus is that there is no plan. We want to use it to do everything (transportation, agriculture, chemicals, electricity, export) and that is not going to happen, so my thesis is where will it be most profitable to world markets. It is why I don't think coal is dead, just has a decade (not a long time for a utility) of slack coming. The big winners I see are chemicals & raw NatGas commodity, both of which are export oriented, once the gas industry figures out how to stabilize prices to world market levels. I look for that to happen via consolidation into the hands of the multinationals. Then we will be back to the hybridization of oil based transportation & next generation coal/nuclear based electric grid.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Well I certainly wouldn't bet against EPD. Cheniere I'm not so sold on from an organization skill and experience standpoint.

     

    But even if both of them stay on schedule, would it really make much of a dent in our supply?

     

    I wasn't aware there were a lot more nat-gas import terminals ... is there a list somewhere? Or are you suggesting that the conversion of some oil-related facilities?
    10 Jul 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Your list

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NejGb3

     

    I agree with your feelings on Cheniere (LNG). It is a favorite of the hedge-fund crowd but they have terrible timing, having taken on a lot of debt and completed import facilities just as the boom became apparent. Might just do the same with exports. Oh, well, debtor corporations can be very profitable trades and are a real boon to the financial derivatives market.

     

    Edit: I forgot to add in that there are several import terminals that are defunct but still licensed. The only one that comes to mind is "The Grand Trunk" in Portland, Maine. I'll dig around and see if I can get some links for you.
    10 Jul 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Battery shipment stats US through May.

     

    http://reut.rs/PE4gSc

     

    I'm guessing the June weather is helping with the broad geographic heat wave.

     

    No I'm not cheering for it. :(
    9 Jul 2012, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Does East Penn have any OEM contracts, or are they totally replacement market?

     

    Note that OEM was up, replacement down in May.

     

    When it comes to autos, is there something between "flooded" and AGM that is a big percentage of sales?

     

    Are there predictions (preferably including charts or graphs) on how US AGM sales ramp up in the next 2 years? What about the overall size of the auto battery market? I read reports that auto sales are up from a very low base, and there are a LOT of very old cars that need to be replaced, if only the economy would improve. Perhaps the timing on that is the biggest factor.

     

    My "WAG" is that Exide and JCI will dominate AGM production (and profits) with their new plants, so I'm wondering where that leaves East Penn and our contracts with them.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    My WAG is they are headed the same direction but with Axion picking up their flooded orders to provide slack during the transition...
    10 Jul 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    In an effort to understand the BMW/Ford protocol and how many amps the various accessories of an automobile use, I found the following table. The number for the low beam headlights seems odd when considering the high beam number. Are these numbers basically correct?

     

    http://bit.ly/NlebpA

     

    If the numbers are correct, then drawing 48 amps would not let a lot of systems remain running. Using the numbers, tried to use medium or low number.

     

    15 headlights
    8 tail lights
    10 turn signals
    15 brake lights
    8 running lights
    58 TOTAL

     

    Didn't include windshield wipers, heating, radio, GPS etc., but just use at night.

     

    Comments? Again, are these numbers fairly correct?
    10 Jul 2012, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, Some of those numbers are a little off like the headlight numbers. I just looked up the higher output replacement low beam bulbs for one of my vehicles and it was 55 W x 2 = 110 W so let's say 9 amps for low beams. And you will see many of the upper end models changing to more exotic lighting all the way up to LEDs to reduce this to offer the driver more current for their comfort and toys.

     

    Once you start scaling up to the level of auxiliary devices that more heavily option loaded modern cars are offering you're going to be a lot smarter with your technology selection for efficiency than this table would imply.
    10 Jul 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Metro,

     

    That looks wrong to me. High beam halogens are capped around 60W whereas low beams are usually 50-55W per bulb. A lot more light gets blocked for low beams so light on the road per watt is much lower, but I'm surprised they claim low beams draw twice the current of high beams!

     

    Of course there's a range since halogens draw a lot more while warming up, but I suspect the 40 Amps for 2x 55W low-beam bulbs at 12.6V is a mistake.
    10 Jul 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your replies. Just trying to get a feel for what systems could still run at 48 amps. If I reduce the above to reflect new technologies/efficiencies with then:

     

    9 headlights
    5 tail lights
    6 turn signals
    8 brake lights
    5 running lights
    33 TOTAL
    So then could throw in
    6 turn signal
    6 windshield wiper
    6 radio
    51 TOTAL

     

    Don't know if this is in ball park or not. But at least gives me some idea of what could be left running in Ford/BMW protocol during the engine off period. Thanks again for replies. Would be nice to be able to throw in climate control and such and maybe those efficiencies exist or will soon exist.

     

    It appears that if moved to 48 volt system none of the above would be an issue. Realize just stating the obvious for the more knowledgeable posters.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Metro, Didn't intend to imply that the balance of the table you supplied was correct. I like Deamiter pointed out one area that seemed to have a glaring mistake but the balance of table is not perfect either.

     

    For example the wiper motor is most probably higher than what is posted unless it's on a micro vehicle. Different vehicles have different sized motors depending on things like glass area, glass contour, peak vehicle speeds etc. Also when you're talking DC motors you have to plan for peak loads which occurs when the armature locks (like for those people that don't check to see if their blades are frozen to the windscreen). This will occur for awhile until the circuit breaker opens (they are self resetting after they cool for safety reasons.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Metro, thanks for sharing thoughts on power requirements. It occurs that choice of energy storage system matters in that regard since some battery chemistries require "climate control" for safe, reliable operation. PbCs appear to have an advantage over Li-ion in that regard as well as in charge acceptance.
    10 Jul 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Metro, This might give a little color to your area of interest. It's a little older but it has some data and shares some of the thought processes being considered. Just a taste.

     

    http://bit.ly/M0E1mM
    10 Jul 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    thanks for the link and the responses.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): EOD stuff:
    # Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 385, MaxTrSz: 28000, Vol 315667, AvTrSz: 6313
    Min. Pr: 0.3440, Max Pr: 0.3599, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3487
    # Buys, Shares: 30 151058, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3515
    # Sells, Shares: 15 92739, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3462
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 71870, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3460
    Buy:Sell 1.63:1, DlyShts 84923 (26.9%).

     

    AH trade of 28K @ $0.3450, likely Quercus since it's 1/11th (~10%) of day's preceding volume).

     

    Out of time ATM, so I'll just say that the reduced buy:sell, in light of the volume increase, is OK by me since I'm looking for a sustainable grind up rather that an explosive lift-off. Ratios such we had been seeing are not sustainable. We want to see prices rise and begin to pull some sellers in rather than frightening buyers as the sellers rush through the exits screaming "FIRE! (sale)".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    APC host

     

    My apologies going a little off track (no pun intended), but given the "warm receptive" comments JP is getting on his TSLA articles, I figured "safer " here...and a couple of questions.

     

    I Am Silent, Hear Me Roar

     

    http://on.wsj.com/Oug18V

     

    I KNOW I was born on the wrong side of the tracks given the author's love fest with TSLA Model S.
    (I am a point a to point b driver-I drive a 2003 Honda!)

     

    "People who like fast cars are sensualists...tasting the saliva of speed—is a pleasurable and addictive sensation. They don't call it dopamine for nothing...I'm not going to dwell ...on the back story...(of course not)...(Model S)—would rank among the world's best cars....Model S has something of the sinuous, languid form of a Jaguar..the Model S has an utterly unshakable, gantry-like vibe to it... It's the attack of the iPhone....
    So, fittingly, it's a spaceship. The Model S is the most impressive feat of American industrial engineering since...Mr. Musk's SpaceX ."

     

    The rather curious last paragraph:
    "The thing could burst into flames...But right now... I'm fairly fond of it."

     

    Questions:
    1...recharge...
    "The Signature Performance model...is equipped with a high-capacity drive inverter and twin 10-kilowatt-hour charging inverters for rapid recharge (about four hours). It should come equipped with a lawyer. You're going to need one."
    (lawyer reference may be a Freudian foreshadowing!)

     

    2...warranty...
    The Tesla's battery pack... are warrantied for eight years and 100,000, 125,000 or unlimited miles, depending on pack size.

     

    Is this part of the hype or are they making some progress?
    10 Jul 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (501) | Send Message
     
    I've driven some cars that make you feel like you're going to die at 60 mph, and some that take 120 mph to get close to the same sensation. Too bad nobody makes deathtraps anymore, they are much cheaper.
    10 Jul 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My favorites are the ones that don't really make you pucker till they hit 160 mph and get you thinking "what would happen if a deer crossed the road right about now, or maybe even a fat raccoon?"
    10 Jul 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    My first time to Germany years ago I spent most of approx. 12-14 hours of drive time averaging about 180-200 km/hr and found one place where it was relatively straight w/ a downhill grade and little traffic (I figured I would only kill myself for the chance to try it). Got the vehicle up to 250 km/hr which was way beyond its design intent. Ya gotta do it if you have never and might never have the chance again.

     

    Later I was talking with someone and they laughed because I didn't realize what those little round signs with numbers on them, some with tread patterns, were telling me. I thought it was all unlimited. Phew! Free lessons. :)
    10 Jul 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    30mph in my '59 Triumph TR3 felt fast. Could touch the road while sitting in the front seat. Hit a butterfly, though, and the car gets cubed.

     

    Sold it after the front wheel fell off. Um, while driving. The friction with the concrete pavement sandpapered about an inch off the disc brake rotor in less than 10 seconds. Looked like a hundred sparklers lit all at once.

     

    But, man, I miss that car.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I know exactly what you mean. I had a friend growing up that had a Triumph Spitfire and another that had an MGA. Fun fun cars.

     

    My favorite memory, because I survived it, was going around a bend known locally as "dead mans curve" at about 70 mph or so in the MGA when the passenger door flew open. That's when you're glad you were low in a tight cockpit!

     

    They don't build em like that anymore. :)
    10 Jul 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, scary fun.

     

    Or sometimes just wacky fun. I remember, before I had a functioning top for it, putting on ski goggles, long scarf, hat, gloves, etc. and setting out on a snowy day. It was a road-going snowmobile. Got more thumbs up and waves than you can imagine.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    The front wheel fell off my MGB as well and took off across a parking lot while I continued rolling on three wheels.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Took me several hours, spread across three days, to find the wheel. Turns out that, although it started going to the left into a giant field of tall weeds, it eventually turned to the right, recrossed the street, and came to rest behind a box or something. At least I couldn't blame Lucas.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh, Lucas. The brunt of almost every electrical joke in the world. And pretty well deserved.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Driving on A1 in Portugal on Friday at 150 kph and had cars passing me like I was a grandma. 150 is uncomfortably fast for me with a lot of traffic, but that was the speed of the flow. After driving from France that day I was kind of happy to drive the last 100 kilometers at that speed.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Mine was running straight toward the side of a parked Cadillac and then veered off at the last instant and ran into the back of a building.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Toyota dealership, I hope.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I spend about 3 months per year in south west France. Just love the highways which are perfect. The french do not like to pay the tolls so generally outside the major urban areas the highways are virtually empty and a hell of a lot of fun. I'm no speed demon but did get up to 150kph for about 50k on my last trip down to Barcelona.
    A world apart from the 35k which is my local speed limit here in Bermuda.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I lost a front wheel one time, but not in a sports car...

     

    I was driving a 2.25 Army truck full of troops in the Alps south of Baumholder, Germany. The wheel had been replaced the day before, and the rookie mechanic got interrupted after putting on 3 of the lugnuts finger tight, then signed off the log book and parked it back on the line...

     

    Next morning we were heading down the mountain to breakfast when the wheel came off. I managed to bring it to a halt with just the front left fender hanging off the 1500 foot cliff. Quite a view looking straight down from your open window...

     

    One of the closer brushes with death I (and the 14 other guys with me) have had.

     

    To this day I habitually examine wheels and tires before boarding vehicles.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I used to work on my car all the time. I think I didn't tighten the lugnuts, either, that one time. Once I put the saucer hubcap (really neat piece, with a map of the globe enameled on the center) back on, the loose lugnuts were hidden behind it. Didn't take long for the vibration machine to wiggle the wheel free.
    10 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    I remember renting a Golf w/ my buddy in Germany in '88. It maxed out at 108mph with the sunroof closed; 105 with it open. Thought my ears were going to burst.

     

    Rental car in the early 80's going south on I-5 outta San Fran, then across the valley. The speedometer needle would eventually max out at the 85mph stop, then start bouncing back towards zero. I think I got it to bounce back to about 20 or 30mph. So did I arrive before I left?
    10 Jul 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I had a TR2 (don't remember the year - 50's I guess - and it had a TR3 engine but a TR2 body. Drove it up and down the PA turnpike a lot between Philly and DC. Loved that sucker. Had a 58 MGA I loved also as a teenager in the early 60's. Candy apple red.
    10 Jul 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Eight years and 100,000 miles is 12,500 miles per year - about average. Their small 40 kWh battery pack purportedly gives the vehicle a range of 105 miles per day, or over 30,000 miles a year.

     

    They're basically warranting that their battery pack will last eight years if you don't exceed an average 40% depth of discharge. That limitation alone would typically be enough to triple battery life.

     

    http://bit.ly/MXXlCe
    10 Jul 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    Major selling going on. BK shares (finally) being dumped?
    10 Jul 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I smell a bankruptcy trustee with a heavy thumb.
    10 Jul 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    wish they would all go in 100k increments...
    10 Jul 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    BangWhiz posted this A.M. he had a situation forcing sale. Could have begun already?

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Just what I was thinking when I saw the price drop ...
    10 Jul 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Could be a good day to add shares at seemingly clearance sale prices, but going to wait and see where this goes. Wonder if we make or surpass 2 million shares today.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Lurking in the $.2x's...
    10 Jul 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    While I'd hate to see the stock trade that low, I hope you get your lurk because I truly despise the people who I believe to be the source of the selling. Let them sell the stock at $.30 and then explain to the court why it went to $2 or $3 a month or two later.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Now JP you are teasing......aren't you?

     

    Us greedy worms in the sludge at the bottom of the pond are hungry but the carp and catfish are still in the market so no action for me yet, but, I live in hope.

     

    I search daily but cannot find another stock to buy that has anywhere near the potential that Axion has and so I wait.....impatiently.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    AB and everyone else, how many fire sale shares do you think Axionistas are looking to buy, net? (net of sales--there are bound to be some that sell at least some of what they own)
    10 Jul 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Cant speak for anyone else but I'm hoping to buy another 200k at $0.20.
    Its all down to greed. My current position is already ultra full but if some silly bugger is desperate I am game.
    One of my investment club has completely sold his holding, about 300k in the last few weeks and the other is sitting pat with no cash available until his divorce is final.
    I do have 2 other friends who are shareholders but I do not think they are in the mood to buy just yet. Dog Days of Summer etc etc.
    News would change the complexion completely........
    10 Jul 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3684) | Send Message
     
    AB,

     

    Sounds like your friend/crew went BIG since January. 100k (shares?) to 300k (dollars?)? How long did it take your friend to buy/sell such large amounts over the first 6 months of this year? I'm just curious since I figured these things take weeks not days but maybe there are people that enter and exit all in one swoop like we've seen today with our 1M shares traded.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219) | Send Message
     
    "I search daily but cannot find another stock to buy that has anywhere near the potential that Axion has". Yep, me too.

     

    I've got a small order in already at $.255. If we hit $.20, I'm prob good for 100k or so.

     

    300k was a material part of the selling recently, Maybe we'll see that guy get back in eventually?

     

    Told a connected friend about AXPW recently. His first reaction was to wait until the next placement then work a deal. I'm not holding my breath.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "Told a connected friend about AXPW recently. His first reaction was to wait until the next placement then work a deal."

     

    Unfortunately, that is probably the outlook of many people. It is evident, that the "large holders" are not the only sellers. So while I hope that the supply and demand dynamic will eventually lead to a higher price, I would much rather see some type of catalyst clear out the sellers and lead to a higher price.
    10 Jul 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I'm planning to purchase somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 shares, depending.
    11 Jul 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I'm just curious if the next round of financing could be funded by an Axionista pool... and if we could raise and secure the funds in advance... but I'm an insomniac dreamer.
    12 Jul 2012, 04:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I would love to see the next round go off as a registered offering to retail instead of a registered direct offering. If the stock performs well over the next few months it may be possible, but I'd hate to handicap the odds as of today.
    12 Jul 2012, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Keep that idea perking, Mr. Petersen... Please.
    12 Jul 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I've got a couple price points in mind. This kind of takes the wind out of the .35 seller's sails. Am wondering if there will be a race for the exit, or if the other seller will just wait until price hits .35 again. This will also allow Q to get out quicker. Hmm, seems to be a long interval. Are they finished for the day?
    10 Jul 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >metroneanderthal ... It does appear that our $0.35 seller is sitting it out. It will be the end of the week before we know because on day one of the sale, decisions need to be made.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's nothing like million share days to sweep the willing sellers out of the market. I predicted that the sellers would be gone by the end of the summer when the 50-day average volume was in the 225,000 share range. This keeps up much longer and the sellers won't survive the month of July.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19433) | Send Message
     
    From what I'm seeing so far, I don't think any of this is the usual crowd. I also don't think it's the Mega-C, just because they should be smart enough to get a broker that saw the surge start yesterday and would take advantage.

     

    If nothing else the "smart" broker" could take the shares and dribble them in. Yeah, I know, that may not be the way they want to do it.

     

    Pure unadulterated guesswork says it's BangWhiz effect?

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Maybe the short sales tonight will suggest something?
    10 Jul 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Set your wayback machine to April and May of 2010 when the liquidator for Fursa and the Bankruptcy Trustee crushed the market all on their own. These guys don't give a damn about being smart as long as they're first in line at the pay window.

     

    It's also important to remember that our friend Bang has always described himself as a small potatoes investor. I can guarantee that he'd be a far smarter seller than we're seeing today.
    10 Jul 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3219)