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  • Axion Power Concentrator 125: July 10, 2012 248 comments
    Jul 10, 2012 2:25 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta from July 7th

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    Today's price and volume graph includes a new "support line" for trading volume that I think may prove to be important. Volume fell off a cliff after the Q-2 and Q-3 conference calls last year and only peaked near year end because of relentless selling. Once the selling stopped, volume continued to recover until the February direct registered offering spooked a lot of people and volume fell off for a second time.

    It looks like we may be seeing a reversal of the pessimism with this latest bounce off the long term volume support levels. There certainly seems to be an improvement in the mood on the Concentrators over the last few days as people begin to realize that many Axionistas are sitting on their hands, but lurkers and other strangers that we don't know about are not sitting on theirs.

    (updated through July 7th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    (updated through July 7th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (248)
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  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    So who will get the cheapest shares? Last year I never picked up any below .35, I won't be making the same mistake twice.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Well, if I place a GTC order for all 113 million shares at $.0001, that's only $11,300.

     

    Plus SEC filing fees. Damn.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    At this point I'm with JP

     

    I can't stand it that we keep getting hammered, so let the big boy, mindless greedy bastards sell their stock now, clean out the stock for sale cupboard, then maybe by September if we get better news, there will be an upward move before year end.

     

    I just can't believe that Axion want to be anywhere under a buck, when it comes time to go to the financing well once again.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    "Tuesday, July 10, 1:01 PM China plans to subsidize the development of pure-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the nation to reduce the nation's dependence on oil and cut emissions. The State Council's public goal of seeing 5M alternative-energy vehicles produced by 2020, blows away previous estimates and sets the prize high for a company able to knock out a technological breakthrough in the industry. EV-related plays include F,GM, TSLA, NSANY.OB, AVAV, ECTY, GACR.PK, KNDI, HMC, JCI, NRG, ZAAP.OB, VLKAY, and AONE."

     

    Now this could get interesting.
    A relative replay of the solar mfg story?
    10 Jul 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    To date China's plans to encourage the production and sale of pure-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles have been a comedy. The State may say yes but the consumer response is a little on the timid side of "meh." – http://bit.ly/NjwAWY
    10 Jul 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    By 2020 Ford expects hybrids to be 70 percent of its fleet, hybrid-plug-ins to be 20-25 percent and all-electric vehicles to remain a niche market of about 5 percent.

     

    http://bit.ly/MgtFRF

     

    Thats forecasting some big gains for hybrids and PHEVs.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Most garages in China do not have charging facilities yet. I wonder who will pay for those.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure that you can trust your car to the man who wears the star...
    10 Jul 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Jpau: Watch that! You give away your age! :-))

     

    Uh, yes, I too recognize it! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jul 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Power to the people!

     

    I happen to think this is a great idea. Should also be studied for fitness gyms as well.

     

    Brazil program sees inmates cycling to freedom

     

    http://fxn.ws/RYhyro
    10 Jul 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    I like the program too Iindelco. A lot happens when feel productive and begin to see themselves as useful to others.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    I found this article in Spanish:

     

    The Green book Illusions: The Dirty Secrets of Clean Energy and the Future of Environmentalism (Green Delusions: The Dirty Secret of Clean Energy and Environmental Future) Ozzie Zehner researcher specializing in automotive engineering and its impact on environment, ensures that the materials to make them lighter, rare elements for fuel cells and consumption that could have far more polluting and damaging a car with internal combustion engine.

     

    According to Zehner, for obtaining copper, aluminum and rare earth requires a huge investment and environmental cost offset is not reached during the life of the car.

     

    To this we add that the technologies and developments to make more efficient and lighter batteries and electrical components are becoming more expensive and difficult will be able to be overcrowded.

     

    Finally, says electric cars require far more energy for their mobilization in proportion to gasoline or diesel powered, and if we add to this the value of renewable resources, the extra line is huge.

     

    Enjoy reading.
    Carlos.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    I am supposed to be reading this book but lately I seem to just stare at book covers, read random pages in the middle and set the thing back down. The author makes some very good points and as long as you can get over the self-righteous idea of people telling other people how they should live their lives because mans hubris makes us believe we can "save the planet", as well as get past the generic ideas of how all of civilized society and modern corporations want to destroy the human race so they can make another buck then it seems to be a pretty interesting read.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Carlos

     

    I think what the article is saying is that all the alternatives to the ICE are going to be very expensive the the environment and the consumer.
    The good news is that the established auto manufactures, especially those who provide diesel passenger cars are way out in front in terms of performance and cost.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Other more:

     

    GE sees $1 billion potential in industrial batteries

     

    http://yhoo.it/NgPtdG

     

    ...That reflects Chief Executive Jeff Immelt's goals of turning industrial batteries -- used in everything from hybrid railroad locomotives to backups for industrial systems -- into a $500 million annual revenue business by 2015 or 2016 and to reach the $1 billion revenue mark by the end of the decade.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    -> Carlos --- now that is an interesting link. I could easily see GE trying to buyout Axion if Axion's battery biz proves successful. Let's just hope it's at a hefty premium :)
    10 Jul 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone watch CNBC's report on Corporate Cyberspying by the Chinese last night? Was it worth the time? (he thinks as he wonders if Axion takes off how fast the cyberspies will be to try to get their technology...)

     

    Remember:
    You're only paranoid until it's true.
    10 Jul 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi JS,
    My Dad said it a little differently. "You're only paranoid if they aren't out to get you, am I paranoid enough?"
    10 Jul 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Paranoia is not a disease, its the epiphany which occurs when you finally manage to pierce the thick layer of lies with which we cushion our fears...

     

    Of course, we turtles go through life with a shell on our backs for a reason.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Fear of homelessness?
    10 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Agoraphobia. We just "take it with us" to avoid the fear.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    TB, Yep. Nice to know your back is always covered. And with a quick tuck the head and the appendages can all be tucked away safe and sound.

     

    Of coarse leaches still suck but all our fellow travelers have to deal with that.
    10 Jul 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/NeZvK8 will show a lot of what was in it.

     

    I watched it ... only 30 minutes long.

     

    Nothing that shocked me as I worked in the field, but it was a stark reminder that you don't have to build factories in China to have all you valuable IP that you've spent 10 years developing gone in an instant.

     

    I hope some of our managers did see it, or will see it soon.

     

    If Google can get hacked, I'm not sure you want to connect any computers you use that has IP that's the lifeblood of your company to an external network. And you sure as hell shouldn't be letting anyone plug a thumb drive into those machines. Just ask the Iranians.
    10 Jul 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    JS

     

    Worth it...but nothing you don't already know.
    Many companies and politicians asleep at the switch...again, nothing new.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thank you all for the replies.

     

    As I think back on the late 70s and early 80s when it was Japan stealing American technology, it occurs to me that we should be less concerned with the Chinese being able to steal our ideas than with their ability to improve upon those stolen ideas faster than we have inclination and motivation to do so (e.g. Toyota and Honda's conquest of the Detroit trio's market share).
    10 Jul 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    "Just because you're paranoid it doesn't mean they're not out to get you" was they way I heard it.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jul 2012, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    I've been reading some on this for years. Over 2 decades ago I was part of a factory team that made a decision not to allow off site access to machine controls unless there were hardware blocks that disallowed changes to software. We are seeing tons of what happens when this is allowed. It really increases efficiency until it doesn't.

     

    Far far far more complex these days.

     

    http://bloom.bg/MkzVnT
    11 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    wt
    Well, the US does get some compensation by making "inspired copies" of the European manufacturers products. I guess it goes the other way too, but in my little business niche I know of 3 European companies that have more or less lost the US market due to their US distributors making "inspired copies". It is maybe not illegal, but it is definitely unethical.
    Not said to defend what the Chinese are doing. Just to put a little color on.
    11 Jul 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    >HTL: "Just because you're paranoid it doesn't mean they're not out to get you" was they way I heard it.

     

    Yep, same here. From the 1960s, IIRC.
    13 Jul 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Apologies if this story already was posted.

     

    GE doubling capacity at new battery plant; 100 new jobs

     

    --Immelt said the battery plant will churn out $500 million of annual sales by 2015 or 2016, and hit $1 billion in annual sales by 2020.

     

    --GE used the Tuesday event to announce specifics of its first order: 6,000 batteries to an engineering company in South Africa. The order is worth $60 million.

     

    That's $10,000/battery!

     

    http://bit.ly/MfL47N
    10 Jul 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Maya -

     

    Do we know what kind of batteries these mythical industrial batteries are?
    10 Jul 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Sodium nickel chloride.

     

    http://bit.ly/OvFsqH
    10 Jul 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, There is a PDF file at "DurathonTM Battery Technology - GE Transportation" which has a general overview.

     

    Sorry, Don't know how to post a link.
    10 Jul 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    GE specifications

     

    There are two versions, weighing 95 and 120 kgs.

     

    Operates best at approx 40-70% PSOC.

     

    http://bit.ly/MiCXY6

     

    http://bit.ly/MiCZz7
    11 Jul 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Here is a more detailed article about the GE NiCl batteries.

     

    http://bit.ly/Njxotj

     

    <quote>
    GE's first customer is a South African company—Megatron Federal—that will use the batteries to power cell-phone towers in Nigeria. Those are usually powered by diesel generators. Pairing the generators with the new batteries can help them run far more efficiently. "You save 53 percent on fuel, 45 percent on maintenance, and about 60 percent on diesel generator replacements," says Brandon Harcus, division manager for telecommunications for Megatron Federal. "For our Nigerian application, the savings are substantial, about $1.3 million over 20 years per cell tower. You use a lot less fuel and produce a lot less carbon."
    ...
    Designed to be deeply discharged at least 3,500 times, GE's sodium-nickel batteries could last through a decade of daily charging. </quote>

     

    Average loads for cell towers are in a range of 5 to 30 kW internationally, and up to 40kw in the US.
    Cummins paper http://bit.ly/LhOgUn is a good overview of cell tower applications. They remark several times of the problems with VRLA batteries. I sure would like to see some testing (or selling) for these applications!

     

    PowerCube specs are listed as 500 kw and 250 kwh. We can reduce cost and improve performance by reducing the inverter to 50kw, or maybe a pair of 25s. Assuming a 25 kw load, it should run for about 9 hours (You do not want to run to 100% discharge, and there are some losses in the electronics).

     

    I know JP always talks about bio-carbon batteries as a power battery, but I also see opportunities in stationary, deep discharge energy applications.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    1) Found this sad and amusing from the article:

     

    "While GE will have strong competition for new grid battery technologies from companies such as Aquion Energy and Liquid Metal Battery," ...

     

    GE is opening a mother of a big plant, and they want to compare them to companies still in the venture capital stage?

     

    2) I know ZBB has for a while dangled hopes of entering the cell tower market with the Enersection and EnerStore (Flow Battery)
    Does GE entering in a big way completely dash that hope for the flow battery in this market? Supposedly they're storage agnostic with the Enersection, but now I wonder whether it's cost competitive over other options ... and there may be a bunch of them in various combinations of alternative energy inputs which might not require the "generality" of the EnerSection.. Not to mention fuel cells ...

     

    Big potential markets, but SO much competition!

     

    I old enough to remember the phrase "no one ever got fired for hiring IBM" ... wonder if we might see something similar for GE or ABB or Siemens or ... in the energy storage market.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Zebra Battery - Sodium Nickel Chloride

     

    Link with overview and advantages/disadvantages

     

    http://bit.ly/MfRK5P
    10 Jul 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. I was just recently on the GE - South Africa website, and looking over the extensive list under "GE in Africa" of all their projects, partners and divisions located there. One item mentioned a SA engineering company they had partnered with. I looked it up and found an article that speculated it was going to be acquired by GE...

     

    Now I just went to the SA GE site and the list link is still there, but I get a "Could not locate the document" error message from the GE server.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Is it just me, or do these seem like a big waste? Probably not a big deal for rail, but for stationary or EVs this seems to be a problem?

     

    "Preheating needed to get battery up to the 270°C operating temperature. (Up to 24 hours from cold)
    Uses 14% of its own capacity per day to maintain temperature when not in use."
    11 Jul 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    There are good markets for NaMCl batteries, things like minimizing fuel costs for generators at remote cell towers, but they do have to be used constantly and they're basically an energy battery that's happiest with a 2 to 4 hour discharge curve. I've been through the Swiss plant that GE's New York plant is based on. With about 20 components per cell, many of which are beta ceramic, it's incredibly complicated to manufacture.
    11 Jul 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Claiming 40% less expensive than what it's replacing. I'm assuming they are talking LABs.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nme0NS
    11 Jul 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I think they're probably comparing system level costs with LiFePO4.

     

    The latest Lux numbers have stationary energy lithium at $1,266 per kWh and NaMCl at $700 per kWh, which is certainly close enough to 40% less if you work for GE.
    11 Jul 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. What's that saying about battery marketing again? :)

     

    I had to check out this article to see if St. Elon was affiliated. Somehow the thought of someone blowing green smoke up someones --- came to mind. Could be just his marketing guys doing some beer money work on the side. Maybe they will give em out free with each Tesla purchase? Smokin green stuff. (No I'm not fixated. I think?)

     

    Green Smoke Bestows a Chance to Be Stylish With Various Designer Batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/MiNOGX
    11 Jul 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "What's the big deal with A123? Maybe a deal is the deal"

     

    http://bit.ly/NIDpjE
    10 Jul 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    An "interesting" purchase for someone who will need lots of working capital.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "http://bit.ly/NIDpjE"

     

    Interesting thoughts. One left out of the mix is management taking a shot at the TBTF game in an election year when employment and hiring is particularly PC with the incumbent crowd controlling a majority interest in "Government Motors."
    10 Jul 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    "Did I mention the company said it doesn't plan to turn a profit until the second half of 2013?"

     

    At what point are their negative gross margins supposed to go positive?
    10 Jul 2012, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    The government could tap GM on the shoulder and say. Ahem, We bailed your behind out so now....

     

    I'd give this a high probability if one of the major battery makers does not come forward. I would place the highest bet that GM's Volt supplier would buy it to protect their turf if GM becomes the lender of last resort. LG Chem. could shoulder it no problem. They already have a US arm so it would go under that.

     

    All my guesses.

     

    The question is, Do they clean it up in chapter 11?
    10 Jul 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    They will not turn a profit because they have already proven more then once they are incapable of sustaining the quality levels required of such a technology in automotive. For them to continue is like handing a child back a gun after he accidentally shot it twice without killing himself.
    10 Jul 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I have spoken with a Korean consulting firm that's working with clients who have expressed an interest in A123. My off-the-cuff observations were simple. There are an indeterminate number of warranty claims outstanding and some of the class action lawsuits may have real merit. Without an incredible amount of due diligence, the only way I'd consider a deal is on the backside of a pre-packaged Chapter 11.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I was busy elsewhere today. Wow - glad I didn't have to sell today, Pity I can't buy. Don't know how long I can hold off the wolves, but at least a month or more. Just looked at otcbb. Unreal.
    11 Jul 2012, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Just looked at otcbb also, BW. Limited price erosion on that kind of volume jump absent any apparent news driver strikes me as a positive. And, I look for positive AXPW news within the next six weeks.in the wake of Princeton Power Systems release of its new DRI-10 inverter.
    11 Jul 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's volume spike was impressive. While there's no way to tell for sure, my guess is that the Mega-C trustee finally got its hands on the 2 million shares remaining in the stockholders trust and has started pushing for position around the pay window. If we figure that there was 625,000 shares of selling yesterday and 266,000 shares moved from paper form based on the FINRA short report, it seems safe to assume that the trustee sold ±250,000 shares yesterday.

     

    Supply and demand analysis is all about proportionality – the number of shares available for sale compared to historic average trading volumes.

     

    On May 1, 2010, the 200-day average volume was 39,000 shares a day, 19,500 shares on the sell side and 19,500 shares on the buy side.

     

    That means the 3.3 million shares held by Fursa and the Mega-C trustee in early 2010 represented 170 days of sell side activity at historic rates.

     

    On July 9, 2012, the 200-day average volume was 312,000 shares a day, 156,000 shares on the sell side and 156,000 shares on the buy side.

     

    Using last reported data and FINRA shorts as a proxy for shares moving from paper to street, my best estimate of shares available for sale as of July 9th is 1.6 million shares for Blackrock, 1.5 million shares for Quercus and 2 million shares for the Mega-C trustee.

     

    According to my calculator, the 5.1 million available shares represent 33 days of sell side activity at historic rates (before yesterday's volume spike). Yesterday's 625,000 shares took care of four of those days, so we're at 29 trading days and counting.

     

    My summer's end call is an outside date.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    It would seem this summer is the crucible of many a fortune, and many a fate...
    11 Jul 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Nice easy to understand analysis. Putting it into days makes it somehow more relevant.
    11 Jul 2012, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that update John, easy to follow. Quercus only has another ~550k to sell during this period (assuming they sold 120k yesterday) so with your estimates we could be looking at something more like 22 days (unless they file an amended form).

     

    I would be great to see volume stay in the 750k-1M range.
    #########

     

    I had to edit some numbers based on the neanderthal's superior math skills below.
    11 Jul 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    But, if the big 3 sellers' sales all show on the FINRA reports, then only 266/625 = 43% of the selling yesterday was them? If true, then more than half was not them. Which means, at least on the first big sales day, most of the selling was done by _____ and _____. Axionistas and others?

     

    If that proportion continues, then...(sorry, going out of town as I speak. so I've gotta go. Please come to your own conclusions. :^))
    11 Jul 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    They've had chances to file amended forms in the past and have not done so. While I find that behavior curious on one hand, I find it consistent on another. I think they'll be a market factor for the rest of the year, but not a market force.
    11 Jul 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Quercus and Blackrock have paper stock certificates and they're included in the FINRA short number. The Mega-C trustee has stock on deposit in a brokerage account, so it's sales are NOT included in the FINRA number.

     

    Yesterday's FINRA short was 266,300 shares, call it 125,000 for Quercus and 141,300 for Blackrock.

     

    Another 440,000 shares of sell-side activity came from normal brokerage account. My guess is the Mega-C trustee sold ±250,000 shares and other stockholders sold the remaining ±190,000.
    11 Jul 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your estimate, John. With our average sales where they were before the high volume day, one would expect a slight bump for non-major sales (carried along by the larger volume and attention). 190k looks like a solid estimate to me.
    11 Jul 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    D-inv
    "And, I look for positive AXPW news within the next six weeks.in the wake of Princeton Power Systems release of its new DRI-10 inverter."

     

    Sorry, I must have missed something on a previous concentrator or something from the AGM. Why is the release of the new DRI-10 inverter important for Axion - I'm one of the non-technical types? I went back to the link that wtblanchard had provided in concentrator 124, but is this somehow related to the residential PC getting UL listing?

     

    Thanks
    metroneanderthal
    11 Jul 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I was wondering about that too.

     

    I did just send off a message to Princeton asking about the UL certification.

     

    However, I did notice on http://bit.ly/MkVeFT

     

    that they specifically mention "Lead-Carbon PbC" along with Lead Acid and Lithium Ion as the battery types

     

    Note this is a very "wide" PDF file; you may to scroll horizontally to see it all.

     

    Note also aimed at residential or small commercial:
    http://bit.ly/PMvdmF
    11 Jul 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    wt,
    Yes, I also perused the product info sheet and saw where the PbC was mentioned. It was nice to see that.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    I would also note that they wrote lead carbon as PbC on the pdf. Now "technically" PbC has been trademarked by Axion, so they should have needed to write it out if they meant Ultrabattery or LA with carbon additives. But they did write PbA for normal lead acid batteries as well, so maybe they weren't worried about trademarks. Either way, we do know that Axion has used Princeton's inverters in their PowerCube, so it may be a direct reference.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Did get a quick initial reply from Princeton, and a sales rep will be contacting me. They're presenting today at InterSolar, so not sure where I'll be in the queue.

     

    And speaking of presenting, it's been a while since I checked, but Rosewater is now "officially" listed in the Indiana show, booth 1303:
    http://bit.ly/OxXFUl

     

    Don't see Princeton on the list, but it's probably a show aimed at a different audience.
    11 Jul 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    If you pay close attention to the mini-cube spec sheet from Rosewater you'll see that they use a number of Indy Power trademarks to describe components. So at least for the Rosewater offering, I think Princeton Power may be out of the game.
    11 Jul 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, but here's hoping there's (a lot?) more than one "residential" game :-) (and who knows how many sales channels into the PV crowd)

     

    Would love to hear some Ft. Meade good news soon which I think would involve Princeton (and hopefully us!)

     

    Anyone with a good estimate of when the 2nd Quarter conference call will be?
    11 Jul 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Q2 results are due by August 14th. Historically Axion has released it's results after market close on the day before the deadline and filed it's Quarterly Report the following day.
    11 Jul 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I was indeed thinking UL certification for the PPS DRI-10 inverter probably cleared the way to move forward with the residential PowerCube and some other applications. Information that surfaced today, though, suggests Axion has turned to other inverter suppliers for at least some smaller systems. I find this extremely positive since exposure to PPS pricing power and manufacturing capabilities/limitations is reduced.

     

    11 Jul 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    JP, thanks for pointing out the references to items trademarked by Indy Power. If I'm not mistaken, Axion Power is also using/exploring use of inverter product from Exceltech in Tx.

     

    I wondering about the odds of seeing a report of PbCs used with ZZB Inc.'s EnerSection product.
    11 Jul 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Nice. Thanks.

     

    What's the estimated breakdown for today?
    11 Jul 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    thanks for reply.
    11 Jul 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's FINRA short sales number was 83,397 shares. If they did their normal 10% thing, Quercus sold ±60,000 of those shares. Since the FINRA number and the Quercus number are very close, it looks like Blackrock is moving to the sidelines instead of pushing for position.

     

    The other 223,000 shares of sell side activity came from normal brokerage accounts. Since sellers will be with us always, it's not likely that the Mega-C trustee was the only seller yesterday. If I had to pick a number I'd guess that the trustee sold ±150,000 shares and other holders sold the balance.
    11 Jul 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    i like the increasing volume. buying shares. all this selling makes the rebel yell, "i want more, more, more."
    12 Jul 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    One of my favorite statistics is TTM volume, which has been driven by sell side bullies for the last couple years. The numbers for the last five periods ended June 30th were:

     

    2008 - 1,230,600
    2009 - 4,139,300
    2010 - 13,855,600
    2011 - 58,150,300
    2012 - 76,597,200

     

    A couple years ago, a holder that wanted to move out of 5 or 6 million shares was a big dog. Today they're little more than a speed bump because market has bulked up a lot, even if we still think of Axion as a scrawny kid. When the Axionistas stop thinking scrawny and finish taking the bullies out, things will be different. After all, it is our company.
    12 Jul 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    If we have many more days like yesterday's volume, Quercus will be out fast during this 90 day period. If Blackrock and Mega-C run out of shares some time before Quercus starts selling the remaining and final 800,000 shares, then Quercus will be almost a non-issue going forward, if volume is good, and if they stick to the 10% formula. I complained about them in the past holding price down, but was not aware at that time that Blackrock, or someone else, was selling also. All the same, will be glad when they are finally finished and then just have to worry about sales revenue and if SS will again sell at year end.

     

    According to Quercus' latest Form 4,

     

    http://bit.ly/Nlg5d5

     

    they have as of 9 July 1,473,112 shares remaining and so have roughly 673,000 shares to sell during the remaining 90 days. If subtract 125,000 from yesterdays action, they are down to about 550,000 for the 90 day period. Five more days like yesterday and they are gone.
    11 Jul 2012, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Couldn't edit above and wanted last sentence to read - Five more days like yesterday and Quercus is gone and the other two nearly. More large volume days por favor.
    11 Jul 2012, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  • RMF - Rethinking Modern Fin...
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    would appreciate input on what the new catalysts are for AXPW ? XIDE?
    11 Jul 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    New catalyst are the same as the old.
    New orders equate with growing revenue for AXPW and acceptance of it PbC product

     

    End to restructuring costs equate with growing profit by Exide.
    Nothing new, just waiting for results.
    11 Jul 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Volume seems to be ramping up nicely early on.
    11 Jul 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • brishwain
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    Hundai sued over car's fuel economy claims

     

    http://fxn.ws/LftLru
    11 Jul 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Brishwain,
    What I found interesting was the article link at the bottom of the report which says that Honda got the small claims court judgment for $10,000 against them thrown out.

     

    http://fxn.ws/NlOGrW

     

    Interesting was the judge's reasons for the ruling. Basically he argued that EPA mileage estimates were a federal issue, and so could not be decided in a State court. Also, he used all the familiar arguments we've seen with SS and LA or AGM batteries, i.e. that EPA mileage estimates are for comparison purposes and not a promise of mileage and that the problems that were fixed via the reprogramming of the battery were a battery issue and not an auto issue, so the auto company could not be held liable for problems with the battery.
    If this case takes presidents, it could really hurt Axion's in the SS market IMHO. If the auto companies don't have to live up to the promises of their stickers using an AGM battery that starts going down in a few months, then they can milk them until/if the federal government steps in. Granted PbC has other advantages, but it still is not a good ruling for us.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    And on the bad news front, the small claims win against Honda was overturned. Part of the reasoning was that government regs dictate what the ads can say and part was "... the automaker's advertising slogans "are not specific promises of anything".

     

    So much for truth in advertising regulations - more judicial legislation?

     

    http://fxn.ws/NlOGrW

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jul 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Ha! Beat you to it by 1 minute! :-)
    11 Jul 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I'm reaching for the Ben-Gay now so I can keep up with you "whippersnappers"! :-)) But considering traditional rounding, it could've been only 1 second: e.g. you post at 13:58:29 and I post at 13:58:30.

     

    I guess I'll put the Ben-Gay away then! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jul 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Maybe BMW doesn't advertise with Newscorp. Or maybe not anymore.

     

    Five new 2012 hybrid cars to consider steering away from

     

    http://fxn.ws/LfJ1od
    11 Jul 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    An interesting article about The "electrochemical flow capacitor" .
    What intragued me most about the article was someone pointing out packing costs of either super capacitors or li-ion batteries for grid applications are too expensive.

     

    "Supercapacitors, similar to lithium-ion batteries, are manufactured in fairly small cells ranging in size from a coin to a soda can. Large amounts of expensive material, such as metal current collectors, polymer separators and packaging, would be required to construct a battery or supercapacitor of the size necessary to function effectively in the energy grid.
    'Packing together thousands of conventional small devices to build a system for large-scale stationary energy storage is too expensive,'"

     

    http://bit.ly/OyEfi5
    11 Jul 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    In the Lux report I wrote about the other day, the hard manufacturing costs (before depreciation, overhead, profit and transportation) for a grid scale LiFePO4 broke down as follows:

     

    $487 – cell manufacturing
    $165 – pack assembly
    $309 – thermal management, battery management and power control systems.

     

    I would argue that thermal management and battery management systems should be treated as part of pack cost, but others might disagree. On an all in basis, packing costs are between 15 and 30 percent of the total.
    11 Jul 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "I would argue that thermal management and battery management systems should be treated as part of pack cost, but others might disagree. On an all in basis, packing costs are between 15 and 30 percent of the total."

     

    Unless the thermal management system for the pack is utilized at some level for a parallel system I see no reason why these complementary system requirements should not be wholly included in the battery pack cost. Maybe they are depreciated at ta different rate but they should be included in any analysis to get a apples to apples comparison.
    12 Jul 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I have a confession to make. I only read the article part way through yesterday before deciding that it was another professor hawking a science fair project. As a result I never got all the way down to the last paragraph which has to be a classic of energy storage journalism.

     

    “We have observed very promising performance so far, being close to that of conventional packaged supercapacitor cells,” Gogotsi said. “However, we will need to increase the energy density per unit of slurry volume by an order of magnitude, and achieve it using very inexpensive carbon and salt solutions to make the technology practical.”

     

    http://bit.ly/MmolXJ

     

    You have to love optimists who only need 10x the energy density and really cheap carbon if they want to have a product.
    12 Jul 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Nerd alert: how to make metal air batteries at home
    http://bit.ly/LJO3uE
    http://bit.ly/LawKfS

     

    I bet some trolls would declare the end of LABs after they see these videos. They may even start a venture using paper towel as separator.
    11 Jul 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Late but ... 7/10/2012 EOD stuff
    # Trds: 110, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1,256,989, AvTrSz: 11427
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3340
    # Buys, Shares: 48 321370, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3367
    # Sells, Shares: 61 927119, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3331
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 8500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3260
    Buy:Sell 1:2.88 (25.6% "buy"), DlyShts 266270 (21.2%)

     

    As others have noted, it looks like the Mega-C shares are being dumped by the trustee. In spite of that, the large average trade size and the VWAP staying somewhere in the range of the moving averages (10/25/50/100 of 0.3440, 0.3380, 0.3621 and 0.3846 respectively) in spite of the obvious selling pressure suggested by the buy:sell ratio, suggests that buyers were waiting for an opportunity to snap up some shares at a low price.

     

    John has addressed the likely meaning of the short sales and the volume breakdown more competently than I ever could.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Don't sell yourself short HTL. If you hadn't drawn my attention to the FINRA short data I'd be wandering blind through a fog of befuddlement. That's the wonderful thing about this Concentrator series – we're smarter collectively than we are individually – way smarter.
    12 Jul 2012, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • runSILVERrun
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the charts, this little known stock seems to have had an interesting history where money could be made in short spurts until 2012. This year it seems to have lost it's touch. I like "hidden treasures" and found a few possibilities the past week searching around the internet while concentrating on investing. Is there any straightforward explanation for the flat performance of this critter lately? Reading about the company a bit makes me wonder if this one has wheels for the future.

     

    While I'm more of a metals hound, I like to dig for hidden treasures too. This one caught my eye.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    On June 24th I published an article on the main pages that explains the bizarre stock supply and demand dynamics that have crushed Axion's stock price over the last two and a half years while its business progress has been spectacular.

     

    http://bit.ly/KI5chY

     

    It's one of those rare companies where the stock has been badly broken by selling pressure that has nothing to do with business performance. The supply and demand imbalance is finally righting itself and the excess supply should be cleared within a couple months. At that point I expect to see the same kind of price inflection that I've lived through with two other clients.

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl
    12 Jul 2012, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    John, I love you and certainly appreciate your points about selling pressure, but we have different definitions of "spectacular."

     

    Steady, well done, experienced, meets expectations would be the terms I (and perhaps many others in the market) would use.

     

    If had been truly spectacular, I don't think the stock price would be where it is.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    The total volume for the last four twelve-month periods ended June 30th were:

     

    2009 - 4,139,300
    2010 - 13,855,600
    2011 - 58,150,300
    2012 - 76,597,200

     

    The volume ramp has been driven entirely by selling pressure from a few holders who knew they didn't stand a chance of short term liquidity when they bought the stock.

     

    There isn't a stock in the world that can stand up to that kind of supply and demand imbalance without buckling. The fact that the price didn't get crushed to single digits is a miracle.

     

    While the stock price was going to hell, the company was partnering with the likes of BMW, NS, GM and Viridity - and those are just the names we know about.

     

    If you don't think that's spectacular, then I presume you'll have no problem putting together a list of a half-dozen other nano-cap stocks that have disclosed relationships with at least two global giants in different industries.

     

    Axion's market price is all about sellers. It has nothing to do with business.
    12 Jul 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    We made a Finnish media outlet?
    http://bit.ly/PRYLR6

     

    See Kuulumiset on right side of page..
    12 Jul 2012, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Freetranslation dot com says Kuulumiset means "catch up on"
    12 Jul 2012, 04:58 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Here is an interesting link from MIT about new battery chemistries:

     

    http://bit.ly/NPQPh0

     

    And the subject's home page: http://bit.ly/POwM3D
    Battery page: http://bit.ly/POyCBE

     

    Basically they are using the automated testing process that big pharma companies use for testing thousands of potential new drugs. They are testing 3,000 new anode-electrolyte-cathode combinations a week. Wow.

     

    Not directly investable, so this is a little off topic. The prez say he has found some experimental materials that increase energy density by 3x. That's nice, but I am (sorta) surprised he isn't talking 10x or 50x, which is the type of increases needed to make batteries a possibly viable fuel tank for autos.

     

    If his best possible so far is 3x (he does not say 3x compared to what chemistry), that is a remarkably low target. Whether or not these chemistries survive the long road (5 years minimum, 10 years probable) to commercialization, I see a long, productive life ahead for lead batteries, especially bio-carbon lead.

     

    Even if one of the 3x chemistries proves to be commercially viable, remember a battery system must include pack assembly and battery management. These BoS (balance of system) costs and sizes are not shrinking appreciably, no matter how powerful the underlying chemistry is.

     

    I guess I am not really surprised that best possible / potential is only 3x. I have never been able to see how any electrochemical battery can ever get close to liquid chemical fuels in both energy density and specify energy. EVs may well be important in our future, but electrochemical batteries are not part of the solution.
    12 Jul 2012, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Valence being delisted (VLNC) from NASDAQ. Two board members resign:

     

    http://bit.ly/NqtNZ5
    12 Jul 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Quite a story on Valence.

     

    http://bit.ly/LhJzd8

     

    has all the juicy info from the resignation letters
    12 Jul 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Rick.

     

    Valence down 38.46% pre market and collapsing.

     

    Looks like another lithium (phosphate) batt maker is about to bite the dust.
    12 Jul 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Valence and Ultralife are the two companies that got me interested in this sector many years ago. I gave up on Valence in the 9 or 10 USD range before their last "dream spurt" higher. I was shocked when they built a plant with a line in Ireland before they even had a manufacturing process. Never ran in commercial production and shut down. I wish they would have made it but they never got their act together. Without a rich investor with the patience of Job they should have died years ago.
    12 Jul 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Is this one of Quercus' investments?
    12 Jul 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    No. To the best of my knowledge Q has never had anything to do with Valence.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    TB: Nope. But BlackRock is. Or maybe, was.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    From June 24, 2012:

     

    "After years of supporting a $150 to $200 million market capitalization with a negative stockholders equity it looks like Valence Technology (VLNC) will lose its Nasdaq listing within the next few weeks and be downgraded to the OTCBB. While the listing could be saved with capital infusion in the $60 million range, that possibility seems pretty remote."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    When director resignation letters disclose that the company has hired bankruptcy counsel and is trying to line up debtor-in-possession financing you know things are bad.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    NASDAQ has halted trading.

     

    Last trade premarket on Yahoo shows $.35...

     

    Nasty.

     

    I quickly read over the Yahoo message boards, Lordy its painful. True believers still in denial.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Quercus managed to avoid Valence because it already had a billionaire sugar-daddy in Carl Berg.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Is Berg staging a $0 cost takeover?
    12 Jul 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    The true believers should have known this was coming when Mr. Berg allowed the death spiral financing awhile ago. But Valence has been the walking dead for so long I guess it lulls you to sleep. This is as true a 9 lives story as I've ever seen. Unfortunately too many were crossing many body parts hoping for that 10th resurrection.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Berg owns the substantial bulk of Valence's debt and has for years. He also owns about 84 million common shares, or ±50% of the outstanding common stock. Since he made his fortune developing left coast real estate, he may have the same kind of cash shorts that rich folks encounter from time to time. He may also have decided that it's time to flush the common and get his money back.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    I am sure it was all JP's fault.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    Rick

     

    Thanks for the link.

     

    "Dr. Keramides ... further pointed out ... how hard it is for battery progress to take place - that going from laboratory examples to commercial products, is a long hard road..."

     

    Where have I heard this before?
    As painful as it is, I'd rather the AXPW "turtle" approach.
    12 Jul 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Who are the winners and losers? This helps A123 a bit? But I presume Valence will continue under another name and other owners?
    12 Jul 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    You may not see a change in ownership, except of course for those pesky small investors. Carl Berg owns almost half the Valence stock and the lion's share of its debt. We could easily see a sequel to the Ener1 bankruptcy where the control shareholders before the filing own it all when the dust settles.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John!
    12 Jul 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of such things JP, what if anything are you hearing about C&D since they went private?

     

    I see they have a spiffy new web site now.

     

    Took me a while (and my friends at Google) to dredge up that painful memory name ...
    12 Jul 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    They're still making and selling batteries, but beyond that I've heard nothing.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Not much going on lately in their PR department, but this one caught my eye:

     

    C&D Technologies VR Solar® Product Selected for Demand Response Application

     

    Blue Bell, PA – March 28, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/Sdx3fc

     

    "he VR Solar® product employs a proprietary grid alloy for reduced gas emissions and ease of recycling. The battery features absorbent glass mat (AGM) technology for efficient gas recombination of up to 99% and freedom from electrolyte maintenance."
    12 Jul 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Got an answer from FINRA about the missing volume on 7/5 - they have found an issue and also provided updated short sales for the day, 8,200 (7.9% - very low) for any who are tracking.

     

    Since I put up yesterday's experimental charts already, this won't appear in them until today's stuff is put in the instablog.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    For those who are interested in GE's NaMCl battery, this article in Technology Review has photographs of the components used in a single cell that will store ±100 wh of energy.

     

    http://bit.ly/LLdOeb
    12 Jul 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    I noted that all of the advantages of the NaMCl GE battery are true for the PbC, along with the PbC likely being far cheaper per W and W-hr.

     

    Has anyone figured out the cost/kWh of the GE Zebra battery? How much energy does a single, $10k GE Zebra store?
    13 Jul 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    After the Electricity Storage Association May meeting in Washington, I wrote, "A single datum from a GE engineer who said their system is about $1000/kwhr, and is still in the very early phases. I think their biggest Durathon prototype, well under 100kwhr, is "about to to be tested."
    13 Jul 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    The Lux Report I wrote about last week pegs system cost for NaMCl at about $700 per kWh.
    13 Jul 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    >JP: I assume that is a generic cost for NaMCl. I have no reason to believe that the GE version is drastically different from the older Zebra implementations.

     

    A comment on the ZBB zinc-Bromide hybrid flow battery. Unless their cost/kWh is noticeably lower than the cost of a PbC, I can't see them competing well. They carry a substantial overhead cost involving maintenance of the plumbing and pumps required for the system to work. Leaks resulting from mechanical damage and aging of the liquid system is a big negative.

     

    Since the ZBB ZnBr hybrid design uses solid zinc in the electrochemical cell as the "consumable" in the system, they have a definite limit to kWh capacity for a given cell size, independent of the tankage for storing the liquids. That makes them dependent on the expensive portion of the system (the EC cell) for energy storage capacity, unlike a true flow battery. This is a real downside from my viewpoint.

     

    The PbC filled Power Cube, OTOH, is a sealed block of "electric storage stuff" and can be essentially ignored once placed and wired in. If it needs to be "maintained" it will say so thru its computer interface. Remote monitoring is almost trivial to implement. That is a big advantage for 10 to 100kWh size systems, where on-site support is unlikely.
    14 Jul 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I visited the MES-DEA plant here in Switzerland and can't identify a single visible difference between the components for the two cells. Size, shape and everything else matches. Besides, the team in Stabio said they'd worked extensively with GE in getting the Schenectady facility designed and built. I'm sure GE wants folks to believe it's their brilliant design, but it's not.

     

    There are a lot of applications like reducing fuel consumption at remote cell towers and time shifting wind and solar for off-grid applications where flow batteries work very well. The PbC is a good solution, but it's no more a silver bullet than anything else.
    14 Jul 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 7/11/2012 EOD stuff:
    # Trds: 47, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 51900, Vol 613489, AvTrSz: 13053
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3444, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3368
    # Buys, Shares: 23 180050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3332
    # Sells, Shares: 20 406923, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3380
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 26516, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3425
    Buy:Sell 1:2.26 (29.3% "buy), DlyShts 83397 (13.6%)

     

    A possibly notable configuration on my experimental stuff is that the average daily volumes are configured "almost right": 10 > 25 > 50. Geting the 100 under these will be "right". They are, respectively, 327K, 254K, 246K, and 261K.

     

    Also, since I think short sales tell us a lot (even beyond John's thought) that we've had three days in a row that percentage has been falling, suggesting ??? I've said a lot on that and so will let it slide here. Anyway: 55.1%, 26.9%, 21.2%, and 13.6%.

     

    The average trade size is the largest since the start of my experimental charts on 2/6. Next largest is 11,427 on 7/10, then 11,150 on 6/14, 10,538 on 5/30 and 8,950 on 4/26.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    My working theory since the end of March has been that Blackrock is selling. The simple reason is that the FINRA short reports don't make sense unless large blocks are coming from paper certificates instead of brokerage accounts. Since Special Sits sold last year and both Winner and Manatuck Hill went into street in 2010, Blackrock and Quercus are the only big holders left with paper stock certificates.

     

    It was a process of elimination. It also makes it pretty easy for me to come up with a pretty good estimate of how many shares Blackrock has left. We know Blackrock's March 31, 2012 balance. We also get regular Form 4 reports when Quercus sells. If we assume that the FINRA shorts are coming from paper shares and deduct the known sales by Quercus, then we have a good count on Blackrock's sales.

     

    It's not perfect because there are other types of transactions that get lumped in with the FINRA shorts, but it does give us a pretty clear indication. Life would be far more complex if we had real short selling activity in Axion's stock, but low priced OTCBB shares are very hard to borrow which makes them very hard to short.
    12 Jul 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    JP: What's your guess on how much Mega C's legal expenses were?

     

    If they were pealing off shares rapidly, I would have expected them to do so again today.

     

    It's way too early to tell, but perhaps they are selling, or have already sold a target of shares, to cover their expenses, and then may hold onto the rest for a while.

     

    I see why you are interested in your below comment of the MM selling 300K at 33 or 32.5 cents.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I believe they're going to sell them all. Bankruptcy lawyers have an uncanny ability to sop up every available penny before a proceeding is closed, but once the money's gone things wrap up real quickly.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    seems unlikely they would hold shares. why bother? cash out move on. they aren't in the investment game and the shares aren't paying lawyer fees.
    14 Jul 2012, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Photo hijacking.
    14 Jul 2012, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    ?
    14 Jul 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    You appear to have hijacked another axionista of his photo. However, as the axionista appears to have disappeared from the list of followers, I suspect you are one and the same.
    14 Jul 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Greetings and welcome Mathieu.

     

    I once converted my user name from CaY'est to Jon Springer, and kept the same picture too (albeit, not myself... a picture of me just looks like a hairy black shrub anyway).

     

    It is a bit different commenting with your actual name, but at least it gives me pause every once in a while when I'm ready to rant... but sometimes not - LOL.
    14 Jul 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I noticed that also and figured he just decided to utilize his own name. Doesn't hurt to ask though.

     

    Don't need to repeat the Trojan Horse thing. Or might that be a Trojan Troll! Far far worse. ;)
    14 Jul 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    I changed my user name a few months back, but couldn't figure out how to meld the two together. Curiously enough I did the opposite with my photo where went from fake photo to a real photo.
    14 Jul 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    metro, Good move I guess.

     

    Unfortunately this isn't a dating site. The girls like a thinker. ;)
    14 Jul 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    when they publish an article, seeking alpha encourages you to use your name rather than a user handle. that's how a tragicslip becomes a malecot.
    14 Jul 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    I never doubted you for a minute. To paraphrase Sean Connery: "Who would ever pretend to be that, who weren't?" ;)
    14 Jul 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    200,000 melting Nikon DSLR camera batteries being recalled

     

    http://bit.ly/NrHAlF
    12 Jul 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Sheesh! Wish I owned some Nova Mining (NVMN) a ways back.

     

    10 cents a share last October, now $1.60.

     

    Nova Mining is a lithium miner based in Nevada.

     

    Well, just that fast, now it's $1.69, based on this news:

     

    http://yhoo.it/P2GC0g
    12 Jul 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1902) | Send Message
     
    It looks like they did a 5:1 split in Jan. and they didn't have much volume going but still good for them.
    12 Jul 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    It would be a great time to sell Nova Minind if you owned it, but I wouldn't buy it. They have a $500,000 deficit in stockholders equity and $26,000 in cash to support a $48 million market capitalization.

     

    Run away - hide.
    12 Jul 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    I believe you and I went round and round about Nova Mining (but under another name?) about 4 plus years ago.

     

    It was then, IIRC, you explained it would cost something like $100 or $200M to get the mine up and running. I recall you stating the stock was going to dive to 10 cents. Excellent call!

     

    As I was sliding, being cajoled in your logical prankster ways, over from lithium to advanced lead acid (Ener1 to Axion), I also recall owning this miner and selling it for a profit.

     

    Probably not much.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Electric Roadway Charges Electric Vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/MlTPgJ

     

    Embedded link from the article.

     

    http://bit.ly/NrVqEK
    12 Jul 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    That would make a nice science fair project, but as a realistic proposal it's a joke. I shudder to think of the losses in such a system. Not to mention the HV electrified road surface needed to push enough power thru the system to keep a car rolling. Do NOT cross the road on foot! Rainy days? Shudder.

     

    But a nice geek tech filler on a slow day, I suppose.
    13 Jul 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    It's around and I've read about it but I've not come across an article that shares the efficiency.

     

    http://bit.ly/SjBh4P

     

    http://bit.ly/SjBghr
    13 Jul 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Well there ya have it. 300 k offered at .33 USD.
    12 Jul 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Just like with government the further out you get the clearer it becomes. I'll bet you by 2050 they'll be free. In the mean time I'll hold the bets.

     

    McKinsey analysis indicates Li-ion pack prices could fall to $160/kWh by 2025; EV TCO competitive with combustion engine vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/OAasFR
    12 Jul 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    It's one more proof of the psychotic break at McKinsey.

     

    There is absolutely no way to square their future price estimates on battery costs with their dire warnings of looming natural resource shortages.

     

    http://bit.ly/OAb26t

     

    The right hand and the left need to communicate better in that organization.
    12 Jul 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. That's a little embarrassing.

     

    I'll never doubt mankind's ability to innovate but there has to be some level of reasonable expectation applied. For as wrong as many seers have been about battery development over the last 5 years it amazes me how some of these organizations can forecast so clearly a decade or more out into the future. They need to get off the secretary Chu Chu train.
    12 Jul 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    why be reasonable when there are dreams to sell? if they do go the manage expectations route, i recommend marriage counseling.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    I'm more interested in validity of "... the price of a complete automotive lithium-ion battery pack could fall from the current $500-$600/kWh ...." The reference is to PACK -- not battery -- and makes PbC at NSC price of ~400 kW look uncompetitive from the get go.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Mercifully Axion is not wasting its time making battery packs for EVs.

     

    Anybody who's selling a complete automotive lithium-ion battery pack at those prices is reporting a negative gross margin on every sale.

     

    The brand new Lux report pegs the manufacturing costs at the cell and pack level (before depreciation, overhead and profit) at $652 per kWh. Then you have to add another $309 in thermal management, battery management and power control systems.

     

    The price NS paid for the PbC's it just ordered was closer to $800 kWh since each of the $400 batteries only has an energy capacity of 500 wh.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    JP > "The price NS paid for the PbC's it just ordered was closer to $800 kWh since each of the $400 batteries only has an energy capacity of 500 wh. "

     

    :-) Me make a math error! First time for everything I guess.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "why be reasonable when there are dreams to sell?"

     

    That's what happens when you have a large percentage of the population stop being at least somewhat proficient in the sciences. Everything seems like black magic.

     

    Hey I saw it in a video game so it must be possible.

     

    Who the heck gets married anymore? That's so old school.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    "Mercifully Axion is not wasting its time making battery packs for EVs."

     

    Some parties are best not to be invited to. Someday maybe it will be a worthy affair but not yet at any scale.
    12 Jul 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    Sadly, yep. Culture is destiny. Science is the study of reality. Neglect it for too long and it will bite...
    12 Jul 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, McKinsey's forecast includes changing the laws of physics. Their hopium includes EVs at 240 wh/mile, even though they cite today's cars use 302-322 wh/mile just with magical technology. Assuming a car is at least 3.5 feet high and people can sit side by side, you can't drop the drag coefficient much below a Tesla Roadster at 0.24 (the lowest drag car in production today, according to http://bit.ly/N3whlJ. Physics mandates how much energy is needed to accelerate X kilograms to Y velocity. Today's electric motors are way over 90% efficient.

     

    The report has magic finance, too, assuming "EBIT margins could fall to half of today’s 20 to 40 percent." (Earnings before interest and taxes). A 10% EBIT in a capital intensive business?

     

    And now to the magic of R&D: "New battery cathodes that incorporate layered–layered structures eliminate dead zones and could improve cell capacity by 40 percent." The footnotes says "Layering manganese crystals using nanotechnology." A few years ago, nono carbon tubes were considered the most expensive substance on earth, costing $100 million per cubic centimeter.

     

    If you believe in all these assumptions, well, I gotta bridge to sell.
    12 Jul 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    I still bitterly cling to hope for heavy hybrids though...eventually. Our bio-carbon PbC will only continue to get better from here--- cheaper(!), stronger, more potent.... lighter and smaller. Hybrids still seem like the best path/means to wringing every last mile out of the energy contained in a litre of liquid fuel. And PbC still seems like the best path to making the economics of those hybrids utterly compelling.
    12 Jul 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    We all make mistakes. I just didn't want you thinking the price per battery was equal to the price per kWh. I don't think $400 per battery will hold once production ramps, but I don't want to pretend that things are better than they are today.
    12 Jul 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Rick K > "D-inv, McKinsey's forecast includes changing the laws of physics."

     

    Loved those comments, Rick. With reports/analyses like the battery cost forecast, one wonders how long McKinsey and their clients expect to have an audience.
    12 Jul 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Don't feel bad D-Inv. I already made this mistake when I first read the $800 per kwh number.

     

    One point, that might be worth clarifying for the board John, is what the all in price for a .5kwh/500wh lithium ion battery costs compared to the "current" all in price of $400 for the .5kwh/500wh PbC battery.
    12 Jul 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    48, Axion's product really isn't the best technology for a heavy hybrid. I assume there will continue to minor improvements "cheaper(!), stronger, more potent.... lighter and smaller." but the bio-carbon chemistry is not going to double energy density or specific energy.

     

    Presently NiMH and some of the Li chemistries are most appropriate. Wikipedia claims specific energy 100-250 wh/kg for Li batteries. The Axion Bio-Carbon is about 15 wh/kg.

     

    Axion does many things well, but heavy hybrid is not one.
    12 Jul 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Rick, iind, ...
    Are there possibilities for dual battery hybrids to take advantage of PbC DCA with offloading of recovered energy to Li-ion packs?
    12 Jul 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    I hear you Rick, but I maintain that over time, we shall see...

     

    wh/kg, w/kg, wh/l, w/l are obviously all very important and of course argue strongly for both NiMH (ask toyota ;) and Li-ion, but I think the metrics of $/W and $/WH will eventually trump (as cheap beats cool) especially when safety and durability, and recyclability, and material scalability are all factored in. Let's look at the Prius. It's a winner with NiMH, but at what price premium (which limits demand)? and at what scalability? Can NiMH scale to tens of millions of cars per year? I would submit no. Now, the key question is: is it at all possible that somehow a "prius" could successfully be made with PbC? What would that take? It's a 1.5 KWh pack currently in the prius if memory serves. I don't know the KW but I assume it's considerable. Can the PbC stand up to the duty cycle? I submit yes. Is the PbC cheaper? *YES!*. Is the PbC more scalable into millions of units? Yes. Is the PbC safe? Yes. Is the PbC recycleable? Yes. All yes. What the PbC ISN'T is that it's not able to yield an equivalent pack as light and compact as the current NiMH pack. Obviously It's going to be heavier and bigger. The first question is how much? How many more Kg and liters in absolute terms? As an initial SWAG let's say 100Kg. The second question is: Is that really a show-stopper? In other words, even though heavier and bigger, *can* PbC nevertheless be successfully integrated into a "prius" like vehicle that still delivers comparable performance, economy, and utility metrics without the huge price premium. So it might lose an MPG or two, might sacrifice a second or two 0-60, might not have quite as much cargo and passenger volume... BUT if it's close enough in those respects (due to the added weight/volume taken up by the PbC vice NiMH) yet costs ~$10K LESS than a prius? I just cannot help myself from persisting in the belief that that could be a world winner, one that (unlike NiMH and Li-ion) could be produced (and sold) in the tens of millions a year...

     

    Now maybe, at the moment, what I describe above is just not possible... the PbC right now is just too big and too heavy and too expensive... but might not that change? Over the next few years, might a little improvement in weight and space, coupled with a significant improvement in cost, get it there? Again I have to confess, that I do cling to such hope... ;)
    12 Jul 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I don't see lithium ion having a problem with DCA. The big negative for lithium ion is the cost, complex BMS for safety and the TMS (thermal management system). On the other end PBC has mass/volume problems if you're looking to store a lot of energy in the case of PHEV's or EV's. Locomotives are a special case because they need the mass for traction anyway.
    12 Jul 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the response, iindelco.
    12 Jul 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    I am not the detailed engineer to argue whether there is a particular "sweet spot" combination with multiple battery chemistries (and consequent complex charging algorithms). There may be, but it is not the killer application with double the performance and half the cost. In short, lead is really heavy, and does not lend itself to high performance motive applications.

     

    Will the PbC change? Not really. It already uses >50% of the lead, so it can't double its primary metrics of kwh/kg, and is unlikely to change significantly is kwh/liter. That is OK, it is not the super battery to take over the world; it is a niche market that could dominate several billion dollar markets.

     

    Cheap wins, and for start/stop (as a stop gap to superior technologies) it is great. For smoothing out dirty power, on oil rigs or on-grid, it should be superlative. I think there also is an opportunity with deep discharge, off-grid application (RV, boats, off-grid residences) that have very fast recharge options. It may have a niche in grid stabilization. I think there is a huge market for behind the meter stabilization, short term backup power (in conjunction with ICE), and selling services via an aglomerator to the grid. None of this is in the "sexy" automotive market

     

    You compare to a Prius. (I just bought one). Very nice car. PbC is not going to save $10k, the cheapest Prius version in only $19k.

     

    I see several very strong markets for bio-carbon. But let's not imagine "sexy" markets that are a poor fit.
    12 Jul 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    II don't have a bright line number, but something in the $650 to $750 range is pretty close for a half-kW.
    13 Jul 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.
    13 Jul 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick!
    Early hybrid buses here in the US used lead-acid

     

    (Type: Sealed lead acid, Hawker XT, 2 enclosures, 23 modules each, roof mounted Voltage: 520-700 VDC)

     

    and saved up to 39% on fuel economy (much less in the summer mostly due to the A/C)http://1.usa.gov/Mpjdnm

     

    But its true that the manufacturer has moved on to A123 batteries. . . Guess I need to stop dreaming about a transit bus application.
    13 Jul 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    >Rick

     

    Regarding the Prius any chance you went with the plug-in?
    I am excited about the potential to commute 7 miles 1 way on pure grid energy and cycle that little li-ion battery hard to extract value. I wonder however about the plug-in batteries ability to last if it is cycled hard--because the faster you charge and discharge a battery, the faster it will wear out. Anyone have insight on that?
    13 Jul 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I'm real careful to avoid saying anything negative about the plug-in Prius because I figure if anybody can get it right it will be Toyota. It's still a tough economic equation when you figure out the time required to amortize the $5,000 price premium, but there are some who are willing to pay more to feel greener.
    13 Jul 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Start here and run a basic calculation knowing that you are covered for 8 years or 100k miles. Make sure you use an average mileage expectation dependent on your climate and and average you feel comfortable with of somewhere between 100 and 80 % over life of rated capacity dependent on your expectations from the battery.

     

    http://bit.ly/LeG42u
    13 Jul 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    RE: Prius plug in. Nope.

     

    The regular Prius can go about a mile, slowly, on its battery.
    13 Jul 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    It is a hybrid after all. And think of all of the places where electricity is from hydro (Brazil, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Austria, Switzerland, and Venezuela have a majority of internal electric production from hydroelectric power per Wikipedia).

     

    I've read that where electricity is cheap the plug-in Prius is the best Total cost option right now if you are going to cycle the battery a lot.
    13 Jul 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    The back of my napkin says that each charge cycle gives me 7 miles of EV range and saves me 1/7th of a gallon of gasoline based on a normal Prius fuel economy of 50 mpg.

     

    Using a $5 gas price and a $5,000 price premium to keep the numbers simple, it takes 7,000 charge cycles to get my money back.

     

    One charge a day for 350 days a year will take me 20 years to recover the premium. Two charges a day for 350 days a year will cut my cash on cash payback to a decade.

     

    I have a hard time getting excited about that kind of economic performance.
    13 Jul 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    7 miles is my commute. Toyota says the plug-in has "approximately 13 miles of EV only driving range."
    http://bit.ly/NvjaE4
    As a hyper-miler, I expect I could do a bit better than that. To work and back for me.
    Now if I drive more (recharging at work as well as at night) I'll do considerably better on value, right?

     

    More on total cost compared to the alternatives is here:
    http://onforb.es/HWRJ9h
    13 Jul 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    DL, I calculate you would use less than 6 gallons a month (if you are not driving on weekends). Or one fill up every two months (six weeks if you play it safe). Why all the fuss for $24? ($288/yr) You'll never pay back $5000. The battery isn't going to last 17 years.
    13 Jul 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1204) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys! (iindelco forgive me if I've miscalculated and you are a female :-)) I'm sure its more savings than $288 per year since I will be driving and charging on the weekends and sometimes during my work day as well. We live in the city and drive at least 10k miles per year. But its probably true that my family does not drive enough to warrant the plug-in. . . .I'll stick to biking and the bus for my commute. Its only $30 per month for the bus pass.
    I'd be plugging into a lump of coal and there is no night-time utility rate premium here either.

     

    BTW, the web needs a calculator for this question. Methinks Toyota would do well to provide one.
    13 Jul 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, There's no way you're going to beat the cost of a bike and public transport. Plus as you've pointed out before, I think it was you, biking on occasion is far better for you.

     

    You didn't miscalculate.

     

    PS. The Japanese did a study and concluded that there was pretty much no technology that yielded enough efficiency to replace less efficient passenger vehicles with more efficient ones. In other words, drive what you have until it drops and replace it with something more suitable later. You will almost never make out upgrading for efficiencies sake unless you find the right individual deals. Their study was a society type view.
    13 Jul 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    While the PbC weight disadvantage to lithium is significant in automotive heavy hybrid, I hold out hope for marine heavy hybrid applications. Especially with the publicized explosions and fires associated with lithium batteries recently. That's not something you wanna risk on a boat.
    15 Jul 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: Do we really know for sure how disadvantageous the PbC to lithium is, from a weight perspective? Just battery to battery, yes. But...

     

    Doesn't lithium need to be fluid cooled, surrounded by not one, but two steel casings, need more wiring, more "ancillary weight" than does a PbC? Doesn't it also need a more complex/expensive racking system?

     

    Further, and I know you know this, but when you compare battery to battery costs, it's a whole different animal, then when you compare battery to battery costs, including ancillary costs.

     

    I don't think we're yet eliminated from the heavy hybrid, stop/start fiesta.
    15 Jul 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    The Prius class heavy HEVs may be a bit much for the PbC because of their very high voltage requirements. The heavy end of the micro hybrid range, on the other hand, appears to be a real sweet spot for the PbC. Mild hybrids like the LaCrosse look to be the battle ground that could go either way.
    15 Jul 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    If the mild hybrid is a battle ground that could go either way, does that mean that the battle ground for the lowest level micro hybrid or simple stop start has already been won?
    15 Jul 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Lithium-ion will win in Prius class heavy hybrids and may win in LaCrosse class mild hybrids.

     

    It's unclear whether lithium-ion will win the mild hybrid market because we know that GM is testing the PbC for that purpose.

     

    I see no risk that lithium-ion will be able to penetrate the micro-hybrid market.

     

    The micro-hybrid market, light, medium and heavy – which includes current Gen1 stop-start systems and proposed Gen2 stop-start with sailing and heavier brake energy recuperation is the PbC's primary market.
    15 Jul 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    And fresh in GM's mind is that lab blowing up. That had to send shock waves throughout GM research to only be outdone by the real shock waves AONE's battery did when it blew up.

     

    In "harm's way." Is GM really going to put in their cars a battery system that caused injury to their own employees?
    15 Jul 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "... does that mean that the battle ground for the lowest level micro hybrid or simple stop start has already been won? "

     

    I don't think that possibility can be completely rejected. The Exide battery used in the LC Superhybrid, the Ultrabattery, and Maxwell's ultracap system used by Peugot (?) are definitely competitiors that may have already won competitions. There is absolutely no reason to presume Axion Power is the only battery company around that is subject to NDAs.
    15 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Alan Cooper told me that the Exide batteries in the LC SuperHybrid were their Plan B choice. The ALABC wanted to use the PbC but Axion couldn't take the time away from its first tier customers to build a demonstration vehicle.

     

    Maxwell's BoostCap system did get the first design win from Peugeot but the cars are not performing well, which is why the May 12, 2012 downgrade from Wedbush said:

     

    "Checks indicate limited potential for a near-term Stop-Start announcement. Conversations with people knowledgeable about the status of Stop-Start programs both in the U.S. and Europe indicate low probability for an automotive OEM selecting ultracapacitors for additional production vehicles in the near term."

     

    I don't presume that the PbC is the only battery around. I said that lithium-ion will not be competitive in the micro-hybrid market. In case you haven't noticed, the only lithium-ion producer that's even mentioned the term is A123 and they'll be lucky to survive the year.
    15 Jul 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Mr. John:
    Please correct me if something is wrong:

     

    HVs are subdivided as follows:
    1-.MICRO Hybrid: Stop-Start
    -.Light, medium and heavy.
    2-.MILD Hybrid: SS. + REGEN BRAKING
    3-.FULL Hybrid.

     

    From:
    AXPW Presentation and http://seekingalpha.co...
    Thanks.
    Carlos.
    15 Jul 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    "Alan Cooper told me that the Exide batteries in the LC SuperHybrid were their Plan B choice. The ALABC wanted to use the PbC but Axion couldn't take the time away from its first tier customers to build a demonstration vehicle."

     

    To which my reaction is, So what? Did he say the Exide batteries were not "good enough'? There is reason to believe they are not for all environments. But to our knowledge the PbC remains to be selected by any auto OEM for anything beyond testing, And we lack certain knowledge other alternatives (the Exide battery, Ultrabattery, or a JCI VRLA of some type) have not been selected.
    15 Jul 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    On the surface, it sure *seems* like a regrettable decision on the part of Axion...I mean I know we all must allow that there would be tremendous "bragging rights" and increased visibility to have been had if Axion's PbCs were the ones in the car and in the photos---rights and visibility that should have been ours and which right now it seems we have foregone... for flimsy reasons. So it feels bitter. I mean, Axion didn't have the time? Really? To cough up a few batteries and a couple of bodies to support what looks like such a valuable and important development / proof of concept? Like I said, it stings. And I'll admit makes me want to spit and curse a little bit. Ok, more than a little bit. But then I've got to think, and weigh John's testimony. And with that I have to conclude that one of two things then must obtain: Either Axion's leadership are suddenly now acting like a colossal bunch of idiots for foregoing this golden opportunity, OR the first tier things that they ARE working on are in fact more important, more lucrative, more demanding of exclusive focus, and more proximate to reward and fruition than any little hybrid project off yonder could be. So I guess it's got to be one heck of a bird in the hand situation. I will trust that they know what they're doing, and as such know best how to deploy their not-unlimited forces. I just hope we indeed have a true death grip on that sucker, and that that bird is indeed one fat goose! ;)
    15 Jul 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    86, my thoughts as well...
    15 Jul 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Full or heavy hybrids like the Prius add 50 hp or more of boost.

     

    Mild hybrids like the LaCrosse and Malibu Eco add 10 to 20 hp of boost.

     

    Micro hybrids offer no boost to the drivetrain and are classified as heavy, medium or light based on the aggressiveness of the system. In the micro hybrid space, the term "regenerative braking" really means "opportunistic charging" because the generator works hardest when coasting or decelerating. That being said, the generator only has one or two hp of impact so it's far from true regeneration like you have in the mild and full hybrids.
    16 Jul 2012, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    The micro hybrid space will be hotly contested by a variety of lead acid products and anybody who would declare victory for any of them at this point would be unwise. The only statement I made is that lithium-ion will not be a significant player in the micro hybrid game.
    16 Jul 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Companies and consortia build demonstrators for ideas that can't get traction from automakers through normal channels. Even if you publicize the hell out of an idea, it's still the reject's route. Sometimes it works, but new technology demonstrators like the LC SuperHybrid are usually ignored.

     

    The automakers came to Axion in 2009 and began testing the PbC on their own initiative. Over the last three years the process has gone from bench testing all the way to vehicle testing, the last step before a fleet test. We don't know whether the vehicle testing is one or two cars or a modest test fleet.

     

    In either event, participating in a one-off demonstrator would be seen as a sign of weakness by the industry, not as a sign of strength.

     

    "Demonstrator units" are great in the grid because everybody is following the same path and duking it out over end users who need to see such things. They are not a sign of strength or acceptance in automotive.
    16 Jul 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Big seller backed out today, it seems.

     

    Through 12:14:58:
    # Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 521, MaxTrSz: 16000, Vol 70700, AvTrSz: 4159
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3420, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3300
    # Buys, Shares: 10 45700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3342
    # Sells, Shares: 7 25000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3223
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.83:1 (64.6% "buyy")

     

    Retailers rule today.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Is there still a 300,000 share offer at $.33?
    12 Jul 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    No thir! 10K $0.325, 5K $0.323, 5K $0.3212 ATM.

     

    Could've been a little "quote stuffing" to hold price up a bit?

     

    Or ... 100K @ $0.32 shown now too.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I was asking about a MM's offer to sell, rather than a MM's bid to buy.
    12 Jul 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! Sorry - yes still there! It's Night Capital MM - notorious in some places for doing unsavory things, per the "tin-foil hat" crowd.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Update John! NITE now shows 290K at $0.325 after 2 trades totaling 10.5K

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    It looks like NITE may be the MM to watch for sales by the Mega-C trustee.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    Pretty interesting that we know who is selling, why and for what price willing to sell. Thanks.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Is the paint dry yet?

     

    Better yet - Is the paint done watching the paint dry yet?
    jeez, this is getting monotonous.
    12 Jul 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: LoL! After the frenetic action of the last few days driving us out of our "stealth bullish" mode, you're *already* bored as "the market" takes a breath?!

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I think the paint may be watching the grass grow.
    12 Jul 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    I want action HT!
    12 Jul 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    With the heat and drought conditions, until recently, in many places, that could be really, really, ... slow.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8841) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Wrong stock. Well so far.

     

    Let's see if that changes once the current 3 medium sized sellers and Mr. .35 USD "glass ceiling" are out of the way in about 2-3 months. Boy I sure wish that we could see a month straight of 1+ million share days.

     

    In the end, as has been pointed out by others, it's really about Axion delivering something add'l to chew on. Small companies in electrochemistry industry. ZzZZzzzZZZ on the info. speedometer.

     

    Yet, as John points out, It'll come when you least expect it if it comes. I'm betting it comes because it's a great adaptation of an existing platform that fits a real need.

     

    Wouldn't it be something to see a few of these large early supporters look back to see branches laden with fruit hanging down right after they pulled up stakes and moved on. Hey I've been there before! :)
    12 Jul 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    I am hoping to have something for the gallery to chew on in a week or two ...
    12 Jul 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1505) | Send Message
     
    "I think the paint may be watching the grass grow"... at a government facility that listens for radio signals from distant solar systems.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    I'd just call that poetic justice.
    12 Jul 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29551) | Send Message
     
    Coming soon to a website near you:

     

    Musings From The EV Black Knight
    12 Jul 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Oh! I do so enjoy the resulting jousts, broken lances, cheering crowds, ...

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    "Demand response's dirty diesel secret - and the people who are trying to stop it"

     

    http://bit.ly/LcqN22

     

    "On May 22, EPA proposed to increase the amount of time backup diesel generators can run as part of demand response (DR) programs. Today they can operate for 60 hours per year before triggering emission control mandates. The proposal would take it to 100 hours."

     

    No idea if this is "Greenies Gone Wild" or "EPA becoming a horse of a different color" or somewhere in between, but it's probably not a particularly good sign for the nascent Grid-Storage biz.
    12 Jul 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Since "greens" should oppose this on principle (well until they realized NG generation my threaten the windmills and PV stuff and decided NG must be resisted), is it more likely "Lobbyists Gone Wild" as the green lobbyists decided it's better to have dirtier generation running more often to support the argument that their clean stuff is needed and viable? In that case they would join forces with lobbyists for the current generation companies?

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    That seems like the smartest thing the EPA has done for long as I remember.

     

    1) It will help demand response companies, such Enerrnoc

     

    2) It give the grid some breathing room at super-peak times

     

    3) It adds robustness to the grid

     

    4) Provide for some limited revenue opportunities for companies to install generators, which greatly adds to society stability. When the grid goes out, we need as many islands of self-reliant power as possible.

     

    5) Eases some of the variability inherent in wind and solar. Emergency diesels often start in ten seconds.

     

    6) AND, increases demand for storage to cover startup times, cleans up dirty diesel power, and permits much greater effectiveness for the diesel. I think it is great news for storage.

     

    ["Dirty diesel power" is not about their emissions. Emergency-type diesel setups are notorious for producing erratic power with spikes and lulls as they chases load.]

     

    Good news all around. Typical stupid and erroneous comment from the Sierra Club. 100 hours is not even a week (168 hours).
    12 Jul 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like