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  • Axion Power Concentrator 128: July 18, 2012 275 comments
    Jul 18, 2012 7:26 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Updated July 15th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta from July 7th

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated through close July 13th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    (updated July 16th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (275)
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  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A new Market Currents post just went out on Tesla:

     

    7:48 AM Wunderlich Securities takes its rating on Tesla Motors (TSLA) down to Sell from Buy and slashes its price target on shares by 43% to $28. The firm expects lower production in Q3 from the automaker and says an "execution issue" needs to be resolved. TSLA -3.3% premarket.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    It ties nicely to my new article that observes they'll run out of cash in Q3 if they don't do another financing, and they'll get a going concern note for Q2 if they don't do it by August 9th.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Jul 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    OT: (TSLA) cut to sell from hold by Wunderlich Securities. And yesterday an insider sold, but only 300 shares. But it was 4 yrs. 7 mos before expiration. IIRC, the other sales I've noted are similar - sold (and larger quantities too) many years before expiration.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Are you by chance short at the moment?
    18 Jul 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Yeth thir, via being long puts! Made the mistake of getting that way during "window dressing" week. I've averaged down a bit and may do more. Waiting to see.

     

    Hardtolove
    18 Jul 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    They've clearly put the plunge protection team to work, but it will be fascinating to see what happens over the next three weeks.
    18 Jul 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    You know my biggest fear? Is that the EVangelicals don't believe in numbers and regardless of the (expected?) weakness in the 7/30 report, they'll be able to keep pushing it up.

     

    But I can't believe there are so many that they could overcome really bad numbers, ... could they?

     

    Regardless, the huge run cried for a re-trace a lot longer than it should've and we've seen a re-trace start. It'll be choppy, but should do either a Fibonacci percentage or reversion to the mean along the way.

     

    Today's gap down open (bouncing off the 200-day SMA BTW) followed by recovery to get a bit above yesterday's close for a while but not able to continue up (so far) suggests that it should do another day or two *if* it finishes closer to the low. I think intra-day I'm seeing a "distribution top" and it's likely to result in price weakness later in the day.

     

    As to "fascinating", it's been more aggravating for me because I had forgotten that "window dressing" week was there when I entered again and it just did the "Energizer Bunny" thing for so long (it seems a long time anyway).

     

    I had to really wind my spring tight to hang in there and then add more puts at something close to the recent high. And spring tightening may not be over yet.

     

    xxx <-- finger crossed.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that the first 6 comments in the Axion Power Concentrator are all and only about Tesla.
    18 Jul 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's a rare for a company to be a focal point for one of my articles and downgraded to a sell on the same day for completely unrelated "execution problems." We didn't find out about Maxim and Jefferies slashing their revenue estimates for Q3 until later in the day.

     

    You're a smart guy even if you are occasionally delusional about Tesla's prospects. There is no arguing the reality that they're going to run out of working capital this quarter and the leading analysts are backtracking like the guest of honor at a crawfish boil.

     

    I for one will be amazed if new money comes in at more than $25 a share. I've seen other companies settle for far bigger haircuts in circumstances that were far less desperate.
    18 Jul 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    "...and the leading analysts are backtracking like the guest of honor at a crawfish boil."

     

    Hilarious!

     

    For those who can't wait to see JP's next piece, here it is:

     

    http://bit.ly/NzR1xh

     

    JP: You wrote in the article that this is your fourth? anniversary of blogging?

     

    No way! We've been yacking for longer than that. I have you at 4.5 years, at least.

     

    Speaking of anniversaries, we're only three days away from the APCs' first birthday! Seems there is a small handful of energy storage companies that are floating face down in the wake, since.
    18 Jul 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    It's also on SeekingAlpha today. That's what everyone is commenting about. I don't know why John even bothers with the TSLA crowd. One of the commenter's to John's article compares Musk to Einstein and Da Vinci, and claims Musk is greater than both, well, there's not much you can do with that kind of blind devotion.
    John, we all love you, but I don't think anyone in this crowd is going to say that you are greater than Da Vinci or Einstein. :-)
    18 Jul 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The first time I read the name Mayascribe he had this to say.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The date was July 18, 2008.
    18 Jul 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    And you aren't going to let Maya have a free pass on that comment, are you? I thought the last comment on the article was perhaps the most enlightened:

     

    "dilipvariyaComment (1)
    Black Gossip , Black Celebrity Gossip , Nicki Minaj , Rihanna , Amber Rose
    ....black gossip with Nicki Minaj , Rihanna , Amber Rose..."

     

    What on earth?
    18 Jul 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    This is you, my Black Knight friend! Taking on all the EVangelicas, killacycle and his cronies, too! ;-)

     

    Happy fourth anniversary!

     

    http://binged.it/NXEWo8
    18 Jul 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    did you see the bus coming?
    18 Jul 2012, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Regardless, he surely didn't expect it to run over him again 4 years later! :-))

     

    Merciless!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    "We didn't find out about Maxim and Jefferies slashing their revenue estimates for Q3 until later in the day."

     

    Actually, Jefferies raised their Q4 estimates by more than they cut their Q3 estimates, and also reaffirmed their $39 price target. Maxim has a $50/share target now.

     

    As for a near term capital raise requirement, I'm sure you realize that Tesla addressed this in its Q1 shareholder letter (http://bit.ly/Lz7kxx):

     

    "Capital expenditures were about $68 million in Q1 as we continued to build out the Tesla Factory and invest in tooling for Model S.
    We concluded the quarter with $387 million in cash resources. This reflects $283 million in total cash on hand, including our DoE dedicated account, and the additional $104 million we had left to draw on our loan facility with the Department of Energy (DoE). We drew down $84 million from our DoE loan facility in Q1 as our projects remain on track with the DoE under the terms of the loan agreement. Our relationship with the DoE remains strong and we plan to draw down all remaining funds over the next two quarters.
    We continue to believe that we have adequate liquidity to reach profitability in 2013, based on our current plans. "

     

    Q2's expenditures will include further build out of the assembly line and investment in tooling, so Tesla would have been eligible to draw those millions out of the DoE loan during Q2. There should be higher powertrain development and production revenue in Q2 as well. Overall, with $387 million in cash resources plus ongoing powertrain revenue against expenditures of under $100 million a quarter, Tesla looks to me to be able to survive 2012 without needing a capital raise.
    18 Jul 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The DOE loan facilities can only be used to pay for property, plant and equipment. They're cash in and cash out. The money cannot be used to pay operating costs and equating the available loan facility balances with useful cash is inherently deceptive.

     

    Tesla had $321 million of working capital at June 30th of last year. It had $123 million of working capital at March 31st, for an average quarterly working capital burn of $65 million. Two more quarters at that rate takes working capital below zero by September 30th.

     

    Tesla had $375 million of stockholders equity at June 30th of last year. It had $154 million of stockholders equity at March 31st, for an average quarterly equity burn of $74 million. Two more quarters at that rate takes equity to zero by September 30th.

     

    Financial statements do not lie.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    You're essentially saying Tesla can't use the remaining $104 million left on the DoE loan. Surely some large percentage of Tesla's burn is indeed property, plant, and equipment. They are, after all, building a vehicle assembly line.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's exactly what I'm saying and have been saying for months.

     

    Property, plant and equipment purchases do not flow through the income statement. The cash outlays go directly to the fixed assets portion of the balance sheet and the loan advances go directly to the long-term liabilities section of the balance sheet. They don't effect working capital or equity.

     

    The costs of installing and testing factory equipment are capitalized as part of the cost of that equipment. Property, plant and equipment costs are ultimately charged against income statement over time in the form of depreciation.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:29 AM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    JP: "The costs of installing and testing factory equipment are capitalized as part of the cost of that equipment."

     

    As I posted here: http://seekingalpha.co..., under US GAAP that's not true. Pre-production costs are expensed as they are incurred (http://bit.ly/OdswXy).

     

    Hence, you've been double-counting the R&D expenses. And if you track Tesla's reported cash liquidity over the past few shareholder letters, you'll see that it declines at most in the $20ish Million range per quarter. With over $280M in cash at the end of last quarter, there's no need for Tesla to raise additional capital at this time.

     

    But hey, thanks for having a Tesla discussion in the APC. I guess it's been good to take your minds off what AXPW's stock has been doing this week.
    20 Jul 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Canardie: You wrote this: "And if you track Tesla's reported cash liquidity over the past few shareholder letters, you'll see that it declines at most in the $20ish Million range per quarter."

     

    Wow. That's a good thing? Cash liquidity declining? Only $20M/per quarter? And that figure is much debated?
    20 Jul 2012, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Your understanding of GAAP is like your understanding of most things, gravely flawed. Fortunately I've learned that debating business issues with you is a lot like debating the age of the earth with strict biblical constructionist. Watch and learn my friend. Watch and learn.
    20 Jul 2012, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    "And that figure is much debated?"

     

    No, not much. Matter of fact, only JP is having trouble with the financial statements. Not even the analysts who are putting the stock on hold or sell are saying that Tesla needs to raise more money. If it were actually true, people would be talking about it. Think about Axion's position end of last year.

     

    Tesla's $20M/quarter cash drain was the worst case of the past year. Best cas was that cash actually increased one quarter. But, the point is that with liquidity of over 10X that amount and production about to begin, Tesla will have no trouble making cars, which brings in cash, which enables them to make more cars, which brings in more cash. Even if production levels don't reach Tesla's promises, they have plenty of cash runway (and don't forget they also make millions from powertrain development and production) to stay afloat until they get the line sorted out.

     

    There are plenty of reasons to think that Tesla won't be successful. Running out of cash next quarter is not one of them.
    20 Jul 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've consistently written about Working Capital and Stockholders Equity which will both be driven to ZERO by the end of September. Cash is an important number, but the others are more important because cash can be manipulated.

     

    Let's go to Investopedia to keep it very simple for you.

     

    Definition of 'Working Capital'

     

    A measure of both a company's efficiency and its short-term financial health. The working capital ratio is calculated as:

     

    Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities

     

    Positive working capital means that the company is able to pay off its short-term liabilities. Negative working capital means that a company currently is unable to meet its short-term liabilities with its current assets (cash, accounts receivable and inventory).

     

    If a company's current assets do not exceed its current liabilities, then it may run into trouble paying back creditors in the short term. The worst-case scenario is bankruptcy. A declining working capital ratio over a longer time period could also be a red flag that warrants further analysis. For example, it could be that the company's sales volumes are decreasing and, as a result, its accounts receivables number continues to get smaller and smaller.

     

    Working capital also gives investors an idea of the company's underlying operational efficiency. Money that is tied up in inventory or money that customers still owe to the company cannot be used to pay off any of the . So, if a company is not operating in the most efficient manner (slow collection), it will show up as an increase in the working capital. This can be seen by comparing the working capital from one period to another; slow collection may signal an underlying problem in the company's operations.

     

    Now let's go to Investopedia for Stockholders Equity:

     

    Definition of 'Stockholders' Equity'

     

    The portion of the balance sheet that represents the capital received from investors in exchange for stock (paid-in capital), donated capital and retained earnings. Stockholders' equity represents the equity stake currently held on the books by a firm's equity investors.

     

    It is calculated either as a firm's total assets minus its total liabilities, or as share capital plus retained earnings minus treasury shares:

     

    Stockholders' equity is often referred to as the book value of the company, and it comes from two main sources. The first and original source is the money that was originally invested in the company, along with any additional investments made thereafter. The second comes from retained earnings that the company is able to accumulate over time through its operations. In most cases, especially when dealing with older companies that have been in business for many years, the retained earnings portion is the largest component.

     

    For heavens sake man, Axion will have healthier financial statements than Tesla come the end of September, and I don't expect Axion's financial statements to be any box of chocolates.
    21 Jul 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1618) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OhuwOh

     

    so what is the 'Stockholders' Equity' of this company pre GFC in 2007?

     

    and what was its working capital?
    22 Jul 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Stockholders equity was $497 million, working capital was $1.6 billion and losses were a modest ($68) million a year.

     

    At March 31, 2012, Tesla's stockholders equity was $154 million, working capital was $123 million and TTM losses were ($295) million.
    22 Jul 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've recently gotten to know Greg DelSesto, the publisher of a weekly newsletter called "Stationary Storage News."

     

    Their weekly e-mail is free and I've been consistently surprised by the quality of his links. It turns out that his backbone web technology is a machine learning system out of MIT. Some of the more dedicated Axionistas might want to give it a try.

     

    http://bit.ly/JqNno3
    18 Jul 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    From John's link,
    "A California start-up, Primus Power, has signed a $56 million deal with a Modesto utility to supply grid-scale batteries called EnergyPods, which could play significant role in helping bring the full potential of the smart grid to fruition. The lithium EnergyPods are flow batteries that store energy, providing utilities a solution for storing energy generated by clean power sources like solar and wind. Primus’ EnergyPods are comprised of 14 flow batteries that can provide 250 kW of storage. The flow batteries are economical, costing $500 per kWh and durable, capable of lasting for 20 years."

     

    http://bit.ly/OHk1SF
    18 Jul 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    LabTech,
    It seems Primus Power has been involved in this, or a very similar project, for a few years.

     

    http://bit.ly/NXxwRH
    18 Jul 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    I looked at the Primus Power web site and I'll be deep fat fried in rancid chicken fat if I can figure out what they are using for a "flow battery". They make it obvious that it is a hybrid FB and not a "real" FB by stating "only one tank to hold the liquid" (paraphrase there). They also state the liquid is based on zinc. OK. No diagram or even coherent discussion on the electro-chemistry involved. Don't they have it patented yet?

     

    The ZBB hybrid ZnBr FB uses solid zinc and a bromine complex for the electrolyte/reactant. Doesn't sound anything like the Primus device.

     

    So it looks more like Primus Power has a box containing "normal" lithium-ion batteries as well as the mysterious "flow battery". It could work, I suppose. Time will reveal all financially pertinent information :-)
    18 Jul 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the reporter got the chemistry wrong. Primus uses zinc bromine chemistry, not lithium-ion. – http://bit.ly/MlqZAq
    18 Jul 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3118) | Send Message
     
    I met the CTO, Rick Winter at the ESA. I think they are real, no bs. The web site is unnecessarily vague, though.

     

    The journalist was not confused, but started writing about another company. "Lithium ion batteries are *also* being connected to the power grid." Not much of a segue.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    The web site is amazingly light on information, considering they are trying to sell a piece of complex electro-chemistry, that is, a packaged flow battery system. Couldn't they say it's a "zinc-bromide hybrid flow cell"? Again, havn't they patented any special technology they are using? What's the secret? Strange.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1966) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what happened. I was looking at my brokerage account and I saw this hand pressing buttons to buy another 5K @ 30.59.

     

    If I can find out who did it, I need to talk to him...my wife goes on the account and wonders why we have so much of 'the battery stock'.
    18 Jul 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, these outofbody experiences are really interesting...

     

    Do you also discover the refrigerator is fully stocked with all the tasty goodies you are not supposed to eat or drink after such an episode?
    18 Jul 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Internet epilepsy?
    18 Jul 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    TB: After such an episode the stock would be severely diminished I think - time to hit the grocery store! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Tell your wife it was a guy named Adam Smith... ;)
    18 Jul 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc: Something similar happened to me this morning. According to a "trade confirmation" email I received I must have placed an order for 5k shares of AXPW. But when I try and recall the act, my mind gets fuzzy and I start thinking about having a snack ;-)

     

    Oh well, another 5k won't kill me.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Often when I am lurking, waiting for a tasty meal to descend to my (admittedly low) level, I get annoyed at others beating my bids by a few pennies...

     

    But in this case I really don't mind.

     

    Still, I wait in my patient mud jaccuzi...
    18 Jul 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "BETA VERSION OF DOE STORAGE DATABASE NOW AVAILABLE"

     

    http://bit.ly/PiaHJm
    18 Jul 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    lol/sigh, not a single ZBB or Axion battery.
    18 Jul 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    Question is, why no Axion battery projects,. The PowerCube installation at Axion's Clover Lane facility is a stationary power project tied to the grid. The Washington Navy Yard Net Zero Energy building project is a grid-tied energy storage project!

     

    18 Jul 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Maybe because the PbC is a poer battery rather than an energy battery? More suitable for demand response and the like?

     

    *if* that's the reason, maybe a smart move to not try and demo in an area where the desire is for an energy battery and the PbC would not compare well?

     

    That might be the reason the Viridity project was chosen.

     

    OTOH, the price differential might make the PbC attractive, but it would have a larger footprint for the same performance.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that a project developer has to submit the specs before it will be included in the database. From what I've seen in a quick review, the database is far from comprehensive and excludes things like the SEPTA project in Philadelphia.
    18 Jul 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    "Maybe because the PbC is a poer battery rather than an energy battery? More suitable for demand response and the like?</i>

     

    Thanks for sharing the thoughts, HTL. I certainly hope that (and concern over poor comparative with energy batteries) is not the reason no Axion energy storage projects appear. And, I certainly hope the absence is not due to decision by Axion to withhold or not contributed information to the database for any reason. As I understand it, demand response and frequency regulation functions are necessary ingredients of smart grids.

     

    Axion Power International management has some questions to answer.
    18 Jul 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Pike Reseach acquired by Navigant, in case folks hadn't seen it (7/10/12).

     

    http://bit.ly/NWIGGu

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3118) | Send Message
     
    Here is a (brief) article describing residential "MiniPowercubes" in Sacramento, using Li-ion batteries. http://bit.ly/Q60oL9. It would be nice if some bio-carbons were in this test, too....

     

    "Over the next 18 months, 42 homes in one of its SolarSmart communities - where homes are extremely energy efficient and topped with solar - will be partially powered by a large battery.

     

    "15 homeowners have large lithium batteries - the size of a mini-refrigerator - installed in their garages, which can power a home for 2-3 hours, depending on the load. Another 27 homes are sharing three big, 4- square-foot batteries in common areas in their neighborhood. They provide about triple the capacity of the in-home batteries.
    ...
    "The Saft batteries being used are the first large, residential lithium batteries to earn the seal of approval from Underwriters Labs for safety standards. "
    18 Jul 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps I'm just paranoid because of all the stories I've read about spontaneously combusting lithium-on-powered cars but I'd rather not have one of those Saft cubes in my garage.

     

    D
    18 Jul 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Once you read this SAFT product name you'll know for sure that they're not native English speakers:

     

    http://bit.ly/NzrfJB

     

    They've also had one evacuation incident at their Florida plant:

     

    http://bit.ly/MIquxh
    18 Jul 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    "...most advanced lithium-ion battery factory in Jacksonville in September.."

     

    I am waiting to see if Jacksonville will have an even more advanced LiON factory in October.
    18 Jul 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else see the ask for 100,000 shares at .305 just pop up?
    18 Jul 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    nearly double the day's volume...

     

    HELLOoooooo big seller
    18 Jul 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Yep. MM VERT.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Via VERT.

     

    There's also an 150K bid at .295 via ETRF. I'm in just above that, but it's hard to tell how much demand (beyond the 20K I can see) is really above that.

     

    I want to apologize to all you bottom fishers ... I've haven't nibbled in a long time, and I put in an order late yesterday when we borke .30, and we haven't seen those levels since :-) My bad.

     

    Fidelity used to use AUTO for my orders, but that's apparently changed. I'm guessing they're using ATDF now.

     

    ATDF isn't on some of the market maker lists I find with Google.

     

    Fidelity says on the order: Route CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS, INC.

     

    Fidelity''s portfolio pages recently improved in that it gave you more up to date accurate quotes/values on some OTCBB stocks. In the past, you could get an accurate quote, but for some reason it wouldn't use it on the Portfolio page.
    18 Jul 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    dropped to .303 to unload TODAY

     

    (what's VERT?)
    18 Jul 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    well... I've got another order in... but its well below .295 for now
    18 Jul 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Now it's 73.9K at .303.
    18 Jul 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe the bankruptcy trustee has anywhere near the determination of this crowd.
    18 Jul 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Jon: The Vertical Trading Group, LLC. I guess that means they have stand-up desks? All other trade laying down? :-))

     

    They're showing a 73K ask ATM, so I suspect they have the account of one of our big sellers.

     

    From that link I posted the other day. I made sure to bookmark and share it because I'd been looking for this for a long time. But it's not (yet?) 100% - no entry for ATDF, e.g.

     

    http://bit.ly/xDSLL3

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL... my mind has been a little unreliable of late... waiting on something in the oven ;-)
    18 Jul 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Jon: STILL?! I thought it was due. She isn't one of your contractors is she? ;-))

     

    Good thing it's a long-term contract if so!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    due date was the 9th... why do you think I've been pacing the halls of SA making nutty comments and buying more Axion the last few days? - LOL
    18 Jul 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Do any of you have thoughts on MXWL .... Particularly why the stock tanked in late May and has not since recovered? Thanks in advance.
    18 Jul 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    John Petersen in Concentrator 125 wrote:

     

    Maxwell's BoostCap system did get the first design win from Peugeot but the cars are not performing well, which is why the May 12, 2012 downgrade from Wedbush said:

     

    "Checks indicate limited potential for a near-term Stop-Start announcement. Conversations with people knowledgeable about the status of Stop-Start programs both in the U.S. and Europe indicate low probability for an automotive OEM selecting ultracapacitors for additional production vehicles in the near term."
    18 Jul 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Maxwell got downgraded by Wedbush because its Chinese partner is now making proprietary supercapacitors using Maxwell electrodes instead of buying finished products from Maxwell. The analyst was also concerned that follow on orders for its stop-start solution were unlikely. It was enough to make several institutions exit abruptly,

     

    Before the beat-down Maxwell was carrying a pretty rich valuation of $500 million on a $100 million balance sheet. I think it's a lot more attractive with a $200 million valuation which leaves room for some upside.
    18 Jul 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Metro and John, thanks.
    18 Jul 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    7/18/2012: EOD stuff (partially) copied from (soon to be updated) experimental charts insta. I chopped off a bunch of that commentary as being of little interest to many here.

     

    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 16380, Vol 171430, AvTrSz: 3810
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3039
    # Buys, Shares: 28 113330, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3051
    # Sells, Shares: 17 58100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3016
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.95:1 (66.1% “buys”), DlyShts 94130 (54.9%)

     

    In my experimental charts I flipped the buy:sell chart to match my focus – buy percentage. It makes the scale match my commentary with no mental adjustments by the reader to see the buy percentage, which is all I usually mention in my comments.

     

    Quercus was in today, indicated by an AH trade of 15K @ $0.303, about 1/11th of the days volume. Calculated short percentage from FINRA data moves to 55.7%, if include in just the total volume, and to 63.84% if included both there and in short sales. But taking the numbers as FINRA reported would also suggest that about 79K of shares were provided by Blackrock if we presume that Mega-C shares generated no short sales. Either way, that's likely around 94K less left to unload by our big three sellers.

     

    I suspect the adviser to the Mega-C share trustee might have suggested reducing the pressure a bit as volume dropped off, going below all moving averages today (10, 25, 50 and 100 are 440, 278, 264, and 265 respectively).

     

    As one might expect in this scenario, price compression continues with a spread of one penny. In traditional TA, this is typical of what we would call consolidation, but in our circumstance I think its just many folks believe this is a great price and, knowing big sellers are a afoot, are being cautious to not artificially push price up when there's a sucker willing to let this stock go at this price.

     

    OTOH, this next scenario seems most likely as the average trade size is also below all moving averages (10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs are 7913, 6065, 5675, and 5120 respectively).

     

    It could be new retail buyers making cautious entry, being fearful of further substantial downward price pressure. I assume they don't know what we know, that there's a definite horizon out there where the last of the large sellers will be exhausted. As of yesterday John was even suggesting it might occur by the time the quarterly report comes out in mid-August. Without some catalyst or a determination by potentially larger buyers that this is a really great price point, we won't be shed of the large sellers as soon as it was appearing we might be.

     

    CHOPPED OFF HERE!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    Received today Federal Transit Administration's response to my FOIA request pertaining to the $1.44 million grant awarded to SEPTA last November for a second "wayside energy storage" station.

     

    The grant proposal envisioned installation of two stations with grant funding of $2.88 million. Storage technologies applied would differ from that applied in the original pilot study at the Letterly station. Energy storage technologies considered for installation at the expansion stations (Griscom, Allison) did not -- NOT -- include PbC. From the grant proposal document
    <
    "Technologies include: lithium phosphate; lithium ion; nickel-metal-hydride; lithium iron phosphate; and lithium titanate. SEPTA selected a lithium ion device for its pilot project and commits to selecting two alternative technologies for this project to allow for desired comparability."
    18 Jul 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    Thanks for that info even though we were hoping for a different outcome.
    18 Jul 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Fine, I see how it is. Ok, so let them get all this lithium-ion stuff out of their system.... But mark my words, it may not be next month, or next year, but someday, someday they'll be back. Probably after a fire or some other kind of failure. And then they'll be sorry. You watch.
    18 Jul 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    and my guess is that it will be another Saft product.
    18 Jul 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    Thinking about, with the $1.44 grant awarded in November, the RFP and responses to the RFP all pre-dated connection of Axion's PowerCube to PJM Interconnection's grid by multiple months. So we should not be surprised the grant proposal fails to mention PbC. OTOH, the language used in the grant proposal is illustrative, not conclusionary, and only commitments to selecting a battery technology that differs from the Saft Li-ion NCA used at the Letterly station. Actual technology selection was scheduled for April-May with award of equipment contracts June 1.

     

    Issue of RFP(s) for procurement of storage device, inverters, etc. was scheduled for March 1. (Maybe a copy of the procurement RFP(s) can be obtained.) . It is possible Axion submitted a bid. Would be interested to learn whether they did or not
    18 Jul 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, D-inv - Interesting that you received a response so quickly. They responded to me immediately asking for an address and I have not heard back since.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    Receipt of the info today surprised, Stefan. Though, I made it pretty easy on/for them I called the Transit Administration office in Washington, DC that deals with project funding then talked with the Philly regional office before submitting by e-maill a very specific document request that included my snail mail address info.

     

    Acknowledgement of my request was received promptly, indicating a normal 20 day processing period with possible additional time needed for communicating costs and my payment of associated charges.

     

    The document I received (11 pages) may be incomplete. Page four of the proposal document states, "A technical memorandum summarizes SEPTA's choice technologies from this project and is attached as an appendix to this application. I was expecting receipt of a 16 page document.
    18 Jul 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Hey John!

     

    Got to thinking about all these Li-ion batteries being used for grid storage. Something clicked and I was reminded of several of your articles pertaining the (H)EVs and resource constraints.

     

    I don't recall one that discusses what happens if Li-ion takes a major part of the grid storage. Ought to have an effect similar to what happens if (H)EVs have a big demand on them? Worse, if (H)EVs and grid storage both ramp on Li-ion, then how bad does it get?

     

    ISTM that both resource constraint while new mines are being developed and resulting prices would be a really big issue.

     

    'Course the Evangelicals would say no problem exists because the EV batteries will be recycled into grid storage use or provide the storage when they are plugged in for recharging (reducing the need for grid-dedicated storage), etc.

     

    But we've since learned that the Li-ion also has a range of use and lifetime limit when used in vehicles that might make them no better than junk after extended use in (H)EVs.

     

    What may save us from the folly is that most Li-ion manufacturers here seem to be getting DOE grants and loans, so there's a high risk of BK if the pattern holds.

     

    Think there's another article in combining the two uses?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    OT: (TSLA) CFO AHUJA sells 10K shares for $34.50 ($345K). Exercised 3 years and a month before expiry. 10b5-1 Plan indicated. Sale was 7/16 IIRC - I forgot to peek at that. But today we got nowhere near that price.

     

    So, planned in advance sale.

     

    How prescient!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Seems older than that.

     

    http://bit.ly/yMBs5d
    18 Jul 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    That's not the same one - this was reported a couple hours ago on e-trade Power Etrade News panel ...

     

    Dowjones, 7/18/2012 ~1 hour ago it says, xact date 7/16.

     

    No worry though, it says he still has 980 shares! :-))

     

    As an ex-"the other place", you should know better that to trust them! ;-))

     

    In fairness though, DJ gets a lot of stuff before anyone else. It's not on the regular e-trade web-site yet either. But they do have the 300 share sale by Passin I reported that happened 7/16.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: http://1.usa.gov/P1VGYI
    18 Jul 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    That's what I found interesting. If he only had that many shares left how did he sell another 10k?

     

    Are they using shares with no lock-up period for compensation?

     

    Or as you suggest is the site I utilized just that poor?
    18 Jul 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    The 980 is, I believe, his position after the sale. And before as well.

     

    IIRC what I saaw on the form, he had an exercise and sale on the same day, but I'd have to check to be sure.

     

    Did you see the link I added?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Did you see the link I added?"

     

    No I didn't review it but now that I have I fully understand. Thanks.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    The other problem with solar farms. Everything is so fragile and you have so many activists and nuts trying to make a point.

     

    They would have been OK if that line was live.

     

    http://bit.ly/Mti9yP
    18 Jul 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if they are using some form of energy storage?

     

    Record-Breaking Laser Shot: National Ignition Facility Fires Off 192 Laser Beams Delivering More Than 500 Trillion Watts

     

    "Five hundred terawatts is 1,000 times more power than the United States uses at any instant in time, and 1.85 megajoules of energy is about 100 times what any other laser regularly produces today."

     

    http://bit.ly/Q8zktt
    18 Jul 2012, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It sounds really impressive until you run a conversion and learn that 1.85 megajoules works out to a little over 0.5 kWh.

     

    In the late 80s I worked with a company that built a femtosecond pulsed NdYAG laser (10^-15). It was a way cool system that could create photo disruptive effects in the target zone and literally break all molecular bonds without generating any heat.

     

    If I've done the calculations right, the boys at LLNL got the pulse duration for their latest test down to a tenth of a femtosecond.

     

    Most of the heavy lifting in this kind of laser test is done with "rattle boxes" that bounce the beam back and forth to reduce pulse duration and increase power, but I'm sure the capacitors that provided the 0.5 kWh are impressive in their own right.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't find a reported pulse length on the LLNL website, but their earlier 411TW test had pulse lengths of 23 nanoseconds -- 6-7 orders of magnitude longer than the "fraction of a femtosecond" you calculated. It's an important detail because if they were in femtoseconds, they'd be reporting ExaWatts or better and quite possibly would have destroyed the very fabric of the universe or something like that.

     

    I get to work with femtosecond lasers now and again (when I'm working on new processes instead of troubleshooting older high power lasers) and there's frankly no way you'd get that much energy into a femtosecond pulse. You'd utterly destroy any optics that TRIED to compress the high-energy pulse that far and good luck trying to focus or turn it!

     

    That said, you've got to admit, it IS incredibly impressive to put 0.5 kWh of energy on a target within 23 nanoseconds and in 192 beams synchronized to within a few picoseconds, all toward generating nuclear fusion in a tiny ball of deuterium...

     

    Those "rattle boxes" are a pain in the butt to keep calibrated though!
    19 Jul 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I just found my error. I originally calculated 500 TW of power vs 0.5 kWh instead of 500 TW vs 500 wh of energy.

     

    When I fixed the formula I came up with 10^-12, or one picosecond. It's still a darned brief period of time to synchronize 192 lasers.
    19 Jul 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Why did I think there might be people in this form that would be more familiar with this technology than I? I've only been around the ones for welding and various scanning/vision.

     

    And that's what I love about this form and Axion in general. The caliber of people that stay interested says much about the technology.

     

    And it's not because it's gee wiz stuff. There are some areas that took development but by comparison to many areas of battery development we're seeing talked about almost daily this is a great, simple by comparison, advancement with obvious markets. Far simpler in it's makeup and it's manufacturing process. It's not rocket science but it sure looks like it has wings.

     

    On an unrelated note, speaking of things that appear to be taking flight. I'd be a little embarrassed telling people buying my cars in the Southern states not to park in areas where it might get up to 120 deg. F. Take your dark Leaf and park it in the sun in a paved parking lot and you're going to see this and more quite often.

     

    http://bit.ly/MKeYRX
    19 Jul 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    It all goes back to Nissan's decision to not put an active cooling system in their battery packs. They tried to save some money and decided to just use passive air to cool the batteries and are finding out that their system won't cut it in the SE and SW states.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, It appears so. I will admit that their response thus far seems plausible but if true they should have been smarter about how they presented the level of charge on the meter to the consumer. Perception can be everything.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, And so it begins. If the company does not come out and make a firm statement about standing behind this at some guaranteed mileage would 5 k USD off get you to jump? Maybe if it's off a 3 year lease. :)

     

    Nissan Leaf Battery Can't Take Arizona Heat, Dealerships Knocking $5,000 Off Price

     

    http://bit.ly/NBBUVL
    19 Jul 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The dealers just want the dead inventory off their lots.

     

    COULD be they just want to move the cars before their overcooked batteries start to degrade while they are just sitting on the lot baking in the sun...

     

    Whether or not they end up coming back under the lemon law has Nissan taking the hit, not them.
    19 Jul 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    100lbs of ice and a pump to spray ice water on the heat sink plates :-)
    19 Jul 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I grew up in Phoenix and know first hand that even a hundred pounds of ice wouldn't provide more than a couple hours of relief. The thermometer may read 110° in the shade but the temperatures in parked cars are often closer to 150°.
    20 Jul 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    That's a Huge hit for the dealership ...
    probably more than their profit margin
    They're dumping to cut their losses.
    It'll be interesting to see how many re-order for inventory....
    AND how Nissan reacts to a "dealer revolt" ....
    20 Jul 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    It will be most interesting to see follow on engineering information. In the mean time Nissan has some damage control to do. These things can be very unfair if not real. Nissan better take the bull by the horns pretty quickly (real or not) because they, more than any other company with scale, are the deepest into supporting this architecture. Forget the Tesla thing. Nissan has really big money on the table here.
    20 Jul 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I think Sihb is just looking to create a follow on recurring business model that mimics your early days! Maybe a JV is in order? The Lickety Split EV cool drive through.

     

    And your 2 hours isn't a problem because you have to charge it about very two hours anyway.

     

    Lickety Split EV cool -N- charge drive through? :))
    20 Jul 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    How about a small AC unit mounted on a trailer and powered by PbC batteries?
    20 Jul 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    NOW you're really making sense!

     

    Can't imagine why it seems to make so much sense to me?

     

    The Lickety Split mobile division? Cool everywhere! :-P
    20 Jul 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    "Cool everywhere".

     

    Goes against his mantra of "Cheap beats cool every time".

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There's an exception to every rule – When cheap equals cool, then cool rules. Besides, a half dozen PbC's, a small AC unit and a trailer could be sold as cheap insurance for a $17,500 battery pack.
    20 Jul 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Good thing for Nissan that they haven't sold a lot of Leafs. 44 miles per charge, ouch.
    20 Jul 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if it will be like the Chevy dealers who don't want Volts?
    As for the $5,000, that is only happening in California and Washington, not in Arizona. So the dealers in the state that is having the problem aren't cutting the costs.
    20 Jul 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Didn't we already have something like this planned for all the EVs that ran out of power because their driver misjudged how far they could drive with the AC on? Now the trailer can recharge the battery and run the AC, though it looks like they are going to need more PbCs to do all that!
    20 Jul 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    metro, Most often the full line auto manufacturers launch new tech. on their higher end vehicles. They do this for two reasons. First the customer at this level expects the latest and greatest for their money and they don't want to pay a premium to be a "commoner". Second, and this is to the manufacturers advantage, these vehicles typically sell at much lower volumes so they get a test bed that lowers their risk.

     

    Let's hope Nissan remembers this and reacts quickly. Right now the damage is minimal but time becomes a great amplifier. The numbers go up and people that feel like they've been ripped off don't grow mellower as time passes. Oh, and the internet gives them larger individual voices for right and wrong.
    20 Jul 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    "sold as cheap insurance for a $17,500 battery pack"

     

    There ya' go!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Quercus down to 351k shares left out of the 850k to sell this go-round. So they'll be done with this round by the end of the month (at the EOD on Mon, 6/30, to be precise), assuming the total daily volume maintains the 441k average pace of the last 10 days. And their total O/S is down to only 1.12mil now.

     

    Their 7/18/12 filing:

     

    http://bit.ly/Lzlejj

     

    Yep, that 441k average daily volume would blow out a lot of sellers quickly.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Broken web page they have there (probably will sort itself after a while).

     

    Same story is here: http://bit.ly/NIW9mH
    19 Jul 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LLUIlM

     

    Reports from Texas.

     

    Mutterings from the owners about class action lawsuits...
    19 Jul 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Wierd, these 2 posts were slotted under iindelco's Nissan story above, but now are disjointed...

     

    Anyway, please associate them with the Nissan story, not Quercus.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): MM VERT in at ask 195K $0.305

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Test for MegaFish. Is he still ready to play, or done?
    19 Jul 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    seems to be trying to hold above 30 cents... but its the same darned megafish's fault that no one wants to pay that much now...
    19 Jul 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Exactly. Whoever is managing their exodus is a fool.

     

    Tossing food into the deep while splashing in the water. Works for sharks but not for bottom feeders. Not any sharks in Axion right now.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking he's a big enough idiot to supply us with a new 52 week low...

     

    But we'll see. Just dipped to $.30...
    19 Jul 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    If it's just the one party I'm not sure they have enough shares remaining for that but I'd be the last to say never. There is little doubt that the party that keeps posting the multi-hundred thousand sell order is a real clown.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmm...go for the 150k at 29.5 cents and the 110k at 28? Or just the 29.5? Or hold pat and let the catfish come up to the food...

     

    We'll find out how much patience the heavy hand has.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Instead of dipping his toes in and just letting the piranha take small bites from him, I wish he would just jump into the water and let us pick his carcass to the bone. It would be less painful and over quickly - and vastly more entertaining than this tedium.
    JUMP!
    JUMP!
    JUMP!
    19 Jul 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    These stock holders are crazy. JCI's stock is down 9% from yesterday...and why...because they "only" made $0.61/share instead of $0.67.

     

    http://bit.ly/NB9cV4
    19 Jul 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    May be a buying opp.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I have to agree. My tracking sheets calculate a price to TTM earnings ratio and JCI is currently wallowing at 10.2. It's much wiser to own Tesla at 45 times book value ;-)
    19 Jul 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    It goes back to that old trajectory thing. AS long as the company appears to be growing Q to Q analysts are glad to bloat the valuation but as soon as it takes a step back the market murders the stock. JCI had a 20x PE ratio not too long ago, now they are about half that. I think it could be a good opportunity for that portion of your portfolio that is not speculative but I don't know enough about what it was that made their profits thinner; was it margins, or slower auto battery sales or some part of their building efficiency business?
    19 Jul 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Did JCI have anything to say about their s/s battery biz? I guess they didn't mention us yet. ;^)
    19 Jul 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, The devil is in the details. What's buried in their report is far more important than the earnings miss. Unfortunately for some, the big boys will step aside if they know that some are selling below value. They will give them enough rope to hang themselves and stop by to pick their pockets before the body is cold.

     

    Axionistas are not the only bottom feeders.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    From the article .... perhaps something to consider w.r.t flooded sales expecations

     

    "General weak demand in the automotive aftermarket was a negative for battery shipments in the quarter. At the same time, the prices for the spent battery cores we use in recycling lead hit an all-time high in the quarter, negatively impacting profitability. We do not expect this unusual combination of soft demand and higher input costs to continue past the fourth fiscal quarter. Automotive Experience benefitted from the higher auto production levels in North America, but the downturn in Europe slowed progress in our efforts to reduce operational inefficiencies."
    19 Jul 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    wtb, I don't know details about the "toll" biz w/ East Penn, but sales to them increased a lot faster than the aftermkt industry sales overall, I would think. If so, and if that trend continues, then Axion could still see flooded sales increase substantially, even with weak aftermkt sales overall for the industry. Couple of if's there, but plausible scenario, IMHO. One theory put forth by some here is that Axion could be "covering" for East Penn while they build AGM capacity.

     

    On the other hand, I don't care a lot about the exact amt. of flooded sales, except that Axion has enough of them to help the usual list of things, like training, developing a high-quality reputation, producing a little positive cash flow (probably), etc.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    WTB: That's all B.S. The markets punishing JCI because it hasn't yet secured an agreement with Axion ;)

     

    For what it's worth, today I started building a position in JCI for my sister in her conservative account (it's 80% cash right now).
    19 Jul 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm ... my time and sales showed a 2000 sale (10:16:51 CDT) at .305, but the VERT .305 offer stayed at 195K.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    now 116000 @ .30

     

    what a moron

     

    i get the feeling he wants to sell it all either
    a) by the end of the month
    b) before he goes on vacation sometime next week
    19 Jul 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's important to remember what this seller is – a Bankruptcy Trustee.

     

    Those guys all have the same mindset, "sell it quickly, pay the lawyers, pay the creditors if there's anything left and then move on."

     

    I don't know about the rest of you, but I've never heard anyone complain that he bought an asset in a bankruptcy sale and overpaid.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Here comes the clown. Some trades at 29.5.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough...

     

    but it is bizarre to watch the total lack of market discipline...

     

    like dollars through the hour glass, these are our dropping bids...
    19 Jul 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    ahoy... a bid bigger than the ask at .295
    19 Jul 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When I found out about the court order I was briefly torn between not wanting to gossip about litigation matters and not wanting Axionistas to see heavy, unexplained and undisciplined selling. We all know what I ultimately decided. Frankly I want to run wash my hands every time I type a message about these characters, but I try to stay clinical and just talk about the facts. They're going to sell it all as fast as they can and if they can't tempt buyers up they'll move the price down because that's what bankruptcy trustees do.

     

    As soon as they're out of stock, the offer will go back to $.35, if not higher.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I think the trustee is wise and sagacious and might read these boards. If he is as intelligent and clever as I think he is, he will dump everything today and fool everyone.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Metroneanderthal... from your smoke signals to the trustee's ears...

     

    and I hope JP is right that we'll go back to .35 when the bankruptcy is done

     

    I'm not sure about that. I sense most of the buy demand for AXPW is in this room and now sitting somewhere between .25 and .275, and considering moving lower.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Only the wisest and most intelligent human ever would dump it all today and fool us all. No, there is just no way he can be that smart.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    John: Being torn and deciding as you did just demonstrates once again how lucky we are to have you participating here.

     

    Thanks once again!

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's my experience that the unknown generates fear while advance notice of coming unpleasantness mitigates fear. The hard part was deciding whether I had any confidentiality obligations that I'd be breaching by speaking.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Yes, I saw that too. Could be in inter/intra-broker trade outside of VERT.

     

    Interesting to see VERT drop to $0.30 ask after a 10K trade at $0.3049.

     

    Weak hand personified.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    More weirdness ... VERT still showing 111K at .30 but a number of trades under .30 ... maybe a 50K market sell order from someone else?

     

    It was also weird that they VERT went from 195K to 111K ... unless my market and sales is skipping some trades, it wasn't because of actual sales.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that the MM can see a bid that he may have sell orders that specify market or even some small quantity limit ordersthat will not be presented (their choice under certain conditions). If he's handling the Mega-C shares and he either bought them all in a back-channel deal at a lower price, or the sell order specifies no firm price, the MM can peel off a bunch and sell at lower price.

     

    Also, there are "negotiated trades" that can go on outside our view, MM-to-MM.

     

    That's probably why you saw the quantity move.

     

    The market we see is not the market at all.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    is the 155,300 bid at .295 legit... or a lure to try and bring other bids higher? I would think the bankruptcy dumper would have filled it by now if it weren't a lure...

     

    but, I'm just a neurotic trying to distract my brain
    19 Jul 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Jon, legit IMO. 145K from ETRF has been then all morning. We've not seen evidence that ETRF has been used by any of our known suspicious characters.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    EDIT: Proof of the pudding - 135K of ETRF just got taken.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "I would think the bankruptcy dumper would have filled it by now if it weren't a lure..."

     

    I think you'll see whoever it is take the shares at .295 after some time. As John has indicated they don't have near the patience of this crew.

     

    Actually, whoever it is at .295 should get out of the way and help them hang themselves a little more....not that the seller cares. It's chump change to them now.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: if you were selling would you just jump in at the lowest price or try and see how much you can get before capitulating?

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Well if my wish was to see if I could get that extra 0.005 USD I sure as heck wouldn't be throwing multiples of 100k share blocks on the ask in a stock that has the liquidity of Axion. You're talking trading finesse and this seller has all the tact of a drunk elephant sneaking up on a rabbit.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I'm still showing 111K offered @ .30 by VERT.

     

    Meanwhile somebody else is hitting the offers ... we're down to .291 best bid

     

    the 150K at .295 was filled along with some "neighbors"

     

    Volume now 311K
    19 Jul 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Yes, I notice that shoving at the pay window, as JP likes to say, is in process. EGRO and ATDF both now jumped below VERT on the ask.

     

    I expect VERT will move in a while to get that $0.291

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    wt,
    thanks for update for those of us that don't have level II.
    19 Jul 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just bumped up the .291 some...

     

    Here you go, MegaFish, come to the turtle...
    19 Jul 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    metro--FYI, Level II shows almost 350k shares bid between .291 and .28, inclusive, as of 1:35pm EDT.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Gotcha.

     

    MegaFish filets on the barbie...
    19 Jul 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    There's another 40K not shown.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    VERT pulled its offer, then we had about 196k shares trade. Hmmm...About what they started with. But I'm hoping they sold a lot more than that so far today.

     

    Interesting idea just crossed my mind. When the BK Trustee is down to some small-ish # of shares left, say, 500k, they could get on this blog and announce that. Less uncertainty often = higher price, or at least a stablized one. There might even be a rush to buy up the remainder at these fire-sale prices.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    My Level II screen is wacky sometimes. I see VERT with a token 2.5k shares at $.826.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Also lurking...
    19 Jul 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    thanks MI
    19 Jul 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    No problemo metro. Now my Level II shows almost 250k shares bid between .2901 and .28, inclusive, as of 2:35pm EDT.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When a market maker puts out a way out of the money offer, it means they don't have any shares in inventory and aren't willing to go short. It's colloquially known as moving to the sidelines.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Yep.

     

    I was responding to HTL's post about another 40k. I thought he meant VERT, so I was letting him know what my screen showed.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Oh! I didn't realize either.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I
    VFIN bid 100k shares at .29 when there are shares offered at .295. If the bidder is a long term investor and really want the shares, why wouldn't he pay the extra $500? Unless he is not a real bidder, just a MM trying to keep the price above .29??? ( I see others bidding just above the .29 hoping they will get their shares before the 100k bidder)
    Please comment!
    19 Jul 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    For most investors buying and selling is a blood sport and every tenth of a penny matters.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    23808--he might. But if he doesn't, it may be for a variety of reasons. For instance, he probably sees the clear downtrend in the stock caused by at least one big seller bailing, so is patient and lets the price come to him. Just like the 29.5 cent buyer today. And $500 = 1.7%, and that can matter, especially when multiplied by many trades over one's investing lifetime.

     

    Catfish Club, my friend. Catfish Club.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Smelling the filets cooking...

     

    As predicted, MegaFish IS yummy.

     

    Does he have a few more morsels to toss us tomorrow? Even cheaper? Could be.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Apologies in advance
    Looking for the original reference to this link on SA recently.

     

    Jeremy Grantham
    http://bit.ly/Q5YLNy

     

    (finally listened to it...25 minutes, but worth it)

     

    When John/Jack/tripleblack are questioned either by trolls or even "newbies", this is the kind of due diligence/homework/ref... that speaks volumes as to their thoughts, theories and themes.
    19 Jul 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    5 M @ .29
    19 Jul 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Upgrading the US power grid always sounds like a great idea until someone has to pay for it.

     

    http://bit.ly/NBplK5
    19 Jul 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    This is kind of a good example of why every month or per year all taxpayers should receive a bill showing exactly where their taxes went. For people who cut out coupons to save .50 at the grocery store they will start seeing why it is important for the Gov. to cut back spending and better prioritize where spending goes.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks LabTech.

     

    This reminds me a lot of the debate over the Great Lakes water assets as the Southern states started eying them after their explosive non-sustainable growth in population. Tons of regs and treaties w/ Canada occurred with neighboring states to restrict access to the water.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Unless volume goes up to well over one million, I'm thinking that tomorrow will bring more opportunities. And if tomorrow is a big volume day, it may be one of the last - at least for this downturn.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Metro: could be. But often Friday's are low-volumes and semi-flat, never can tell.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    metro, think it would help if I put in a bid at, say, $0.19?
    19 Jul 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    My own theory is that Fish wants out before the weekend. I guess we will see and hopefully I'm not one day too late. My bid will be .1901.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    $0.1901? Now *that's* risk-management my friend!

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I think you're being a little over zealous on the down side. Why don't you skip lunch tomorrow and kick the money in to move your offer to .1902 thus increasing your odds by raising the pot one neanderthal?

     

    I figure if I function as an instigator I can probably get you two bottom feeders into a bidding war and get your trades to go off at maybe as high as .1903!
    19 Jul 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Boy was I wrong.
    21 Jul 2012, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    .. maybe. I'm hoping you were wrong but not gloating yet.
    21 Jul 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    For the laser buffs - http://tinyurl.com/7mr...

     

    :-) Coat upper surfaces of the drone with solar cells, recharge the batteries at night from a solar charged battery of bio-carbon PbC cells and we could have a "green State" society.
    19 Jul 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Next they are going to add graphene to really get the cost down.

     

    Scientists Add Gold to Boost Lithium Car Battery Range

     

    http://bit.ly/MuyNOo
    19 Jul 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Diamond enhanced PbC is already the future. We skipped the whole gold thing as wanted more bling. Much sexier.
    19 Jul 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    Gold opens up a few more recycling opportunities. Will gold LiON be recycled like platinum in catalytic converters, or more like soda bottle deposits?
    19 Jul 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    My spreadsheet beginning on July 10 through 19 July.
    Volume: 4,333,475
    Total Sales: 2,166,737
    Sales Attributable to Quercus: 433,347
    Total Sales less Quercus. 1,733,390.00

     

    Quercus sales are approximation based on their reporting and 10% of volume on 19th. IMHO if we have a good volume day tomorrow, Fish will be left high and dry on the Aral Sea plains with his bones basking in the sun as his native waters continue to shrink rapidly.
    19 Jul 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Spoken like a genuine krill hunter...

     

    You telling me I have to raise my next purchase price?
    19 Jul 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    tried to edit the above, my idea for a good volume day to take out Fish would be about a million shares.
    19 Jul 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't think we can assume that the Bankruptcy Trustee and Quercus were the only sellers since the 10th. Sadly price action like we've seen over the last few days is enough to scare some investors who don't take the time to follow discussions like the Concentrators. I think most of the hands are stable, but I can't assume that all of them are.

     

    Another uncertainty is whether we've had a significant number of single print trades. I'm sure there were some but would hate to guess how many shares went with a single count instead of a double count.

     

    When you balance the two, I think there's good reason to believe the liquidation sale will end tomorrow. We won't know for sure until the last share trades and the low offer disappears.

     

    Heck, Axion might close up for the week;-)
    19 Jul 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    "Heck, Axion might close up for the week;-) "

     

    Now, JP! That would imply something more than a 2X from market open because I just know I'm going to get a bunch at my opening bid price in the a.m. at $0.15 Think I should take my profits at the end of the day?
    19 Jul 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Nothing would make me happier than to see some of you guys buying stock in the teens, but I don't think it's likely.
    20 Jul 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    And of course all the "noise" in the background doesn't help!

     

    The abnormal normal

     

    http://bit.ly/NDDSWN

     

    "Investors are worried. Nearly 70% of those who responded to a recent Fidelity survey said they are more risk averse today. Their number-one concern is “market volatility.” Regarding the economic outlook, 45% say they believe that the worst is behind us, but 40% expect it to either stay the same or get worse. ..."
    20 Jul 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Good call, up for the week:)
    20 Jul 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) 7/19/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 742608, AvTrSz: 10035
    Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.3150, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.2938
    # Buys, Shares: 34 189246, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2963
    # Sells, Shares: 40 553362, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2930
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.92 (25.5% “buys”), DlyShts 103200 (13.9%)

     

    Well, buy:sell ended much better than I anticipated, likely because the big sellers started pushing each other at the exit gate. At 13:35, we were at 12.4% “buys”, approximating 1:8.05. But over the next 17 trades a total of 110,746 shares traded, all as buys, at $0.2939-$0.2950.

     

    Since we all know what went on, I'll not add anything else here. If there's anything I spot that I think needs some verbiage, I'll post more.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Well, one of us needs to pay attention here! :-))

     

    Notice the low for the day? BIG TYPO that slipped by me. Being h00m0n, I expect more. The low should be $0.29, according to MORE RELIABLE sources than I. :-((

     

    Apoplectic apologies to any who suffered from that error (apparently not anyone!). :-))

     

    There goes my Fez!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    59 6f 75 20 73 68 6f 75 6c 64 20 70 75 74 20 69 6e 20 61 20 71 75 69 63 6b 65 72 20 73 75 62 72 6f 75 74 69 6e 65 20 74 6f 20 63 61 74 63 68 20 79 6f 75 72 20 65 72 72 6f 72 73 2e
    22 Jul 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    I didn't know anyone used EBCDIC anymore. Or is it 16-bit ASCII? Ah, ASCII!

     

    Unfortunately, being all manually captured data ATM, the subroutine often gets overlooked.

     

    I was hoping that the "cloud computing" in this blog might have such.

     

    But, no joy!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I didn't want to do it in binary because it wouldn't bridge back as many memories for you! :)

     

    It's a message in hexadecimal that's basically indicating that you should make a quicker subroutine to catch your errors. I was just smiling to myself thinking that you went back to you earlier post and caught an error then felt it needed to be corrected. This most probably has more to do with the tracking blog you have where it is far more important.

     

    I often wonder how many NASA scientists wake up in the middle of the night, even today, with cold sweats after they missed the English Metric error and buried that Martian mission. Pretty neat, yet not well understood, how the human mind works.

     

    Oh well, Axion is interesting isn't it. ;)
    22 Jul 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I'll not often do this but I'll admit to getting in front of Mr. desperate today in an attempt to force him down to a range to push up the volume. I don't like doing it but in my opinion the day most probably would have been the same in price range. I just figured we'd have more of a day where shares would change hands instead of sitting in the 30's trying to peck at your "good friend". Don't know if it worked based on my stimulus but for me the day went extremely well. In my opinion (and obviously others) we need these guys gone this quarter.

     

    It didn't take s--t for shares to get him to bite either so I;m pretty convinced today was what it was irrespective of my input..
    19 Jul 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    Thanks for your efforts, and any others who are buying at this point. Tomorrow, I'm probably buying again. As my timing is usually off, price will bottom at 10 cents.
    19 Jul 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    iindelco--You smooth dog!! And Catfish BFF.
    19 Jul 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    All I can tell you guys is I filliped little of my holdings in and the same level back in. I was not looking to do anything other than to take advantage of the distressed seller and pump up the volume. For anyone here looking for advantage over the next year the volume aspect is what we need right now short term.

     

    Can't say I was right but I thought it was to the advantage or the longs like myself.

     

    PS I worried like heck even though it should have been nothing.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Vol 742608
    DlyShts 103200 (13.9%)

     

    Interesting, so that would imply that BR moved totally to the sidelines and Q still sold about their 10% ... and 650K more shares came from the Trustee and any other small sellers.
    19 Jul 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    The daily short figure is what stuck out to me, too. If you assume the trustee was very active today, it says their sales do not show on the daily short reports. Therefore, someone(s) else (with paper shares) has been quite active below 35 cents. Seems like that puts to rest the idea that BR has been on the sidelines recently. May materially change the remaining shares allocation mix of BR and trustee.

     

    I also think that there has been a lot more selling by other than the Big 3 recently. For example, there was 50k for sale at one point this afternoon by ATDF, which is a retail channel. We've also seen Axionistas bail when the going gets tough. Not sure how many shares BR and the trustee have left, but it could easily be enough to last a lot longer than tomorrow.

     

    Most importantly, my bid for 113mil shares at $.0001 went unfilled and therefore expired. I can always re-up tomorrow, lol.
    19 Jul 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I can't recall ('course the operative word is "recall") ever seeing evidence that Quercus went that high. And often, although not always, we see an AH trade that approximates 10% of volume prior to the AH trade.

     

    10% would be ~67K (~1/11th of the day's total) since the Q behavior seems to be a late-day sell of about 10% of volume prior to that sale.

     

    *If* Quercus was in I'd bet that they did right around their 10% and the extra percentages are just normal MM shorts for sells of shares not in their control - there's *almost* always some. Check some days Q wasn't selling (per their Form 4 filings) and you still see some. You might think it's Blackrock, but some days you see like 8K and similar small numbers, which shouldn't be BR I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've been working with the operative assumption that Blackrock has moved to the sidelines and is letting the trustee have his way, but it's possible that BR is pushing around the pay window too. This is one of those times when I wish I had Level II and could watch the offer changes more closely. In May of 2010 there was a back and forth battle between PERT and UBSS that drove the price down as the two sellers fought over first position at the pay window.

     

    Looking back at the daily numbers, volume and short sales took a big jump on the 6th after spending a couple weeks in the doldrums (2x the 10-day average). Since then total volume has been 4.9 million shares and FINRA shorts have been 1.45 million.

     

    In a worst case analysis and assuming a double count on all trades, we could be looking at a situation where the 2.45 million sells break down to: 490,000 from Quercus, 960,000 from BR and 1 million from the trustee and others. If that's the case, then the trustee and BR would each have about a million shares left, which would suggest another week or two of selling competition.

     

    I like to assume that professionals maintain their composure when somebody else acts stupidly, but there's a chance that the trustee's insanity is contagious and we're seeing a final blow out from all the weak hands.

     

    Since I grew up in Arizona I know there's a wash at the bottom of every valley. It will be fascinating to watch over the next few days and see what happens. Learning opportunities like this are few and far between. I'm stoked.
    20 Jul 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Inside GE’s New Battery Factory
    http://bit.ly/SKrG7A
    19 Jul 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    If the PbC can withstand the rigors of other's PR efforts, maybe someday we will get an increase in share price.
    19 Jul 2012, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Everyone just hates battery stocks right now.
    19 Jul 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    In the final picture of the series, I see what is a high vacuum pump and/or a helium leak checker. I also saw stainless steel "accordion" bellows seals welded to the inner metal housing box. Do you suppose the interior of the metal box cell holder shell is run at vacuum for thermal insulation purposes?

     

    They might also use variable pressure as a "thermal switch" to provide good insulation when the battery is at idle and increased thermal conductivity when the battery needs to lose heat ( IIR heating) during charging and discharging. Could work. Done right, there need be no moving parts in the "thermal switch".

     

    I would love to spend a day snooping around and asking questions! Nerd heaven ;-)

     

    19 Jul 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The GE plant is prettier than the FZ Sonick plant in Switzerland, but it's also several years newer. The thing I found most surprising was the amount of hand work required to make the cells and the number of components in each cell. These things are made primarily from aluminum beta ceramic and that's not easy stuff to bond to other components. When you consider that the cells are 100 wh and it takes 10 cells per kWh of battery capacity, it's easy to see why the cost is high.
    20 Jul 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    I picked up 2, 5k blocks for an average of about $0.295.

     

    I just can't help myself! I also think that "the end is near" on the great summertime Axion stock sale of 2012.
    19 Jul 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I agree. Even for someone just looking for an interesting short/medium term trade, given the circumstances and price, this is a compelling gamble.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    THE END OF AN ERA:

     

    Section 16 of the Exchange Act requires directors, officers and 10% beneficial owners to file reports on Form 4 within two days after any sale. When a 10% holder's interest drops below the threshold, his duty to file reports terminates.

     

    There's a check box in the upper left hand corner of Form 4 to indicate that a holder is not required to file future reports. Quercus checked that box on its last Form 4.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NljECI

     

    Under Rule 144, Quercus' duty to file a Notice of Proposed Sale under Rule 144 will terminate in three months - e.g. October 16th. Since their current Form 144 expires in mid-September, we're likely to see one final Form 144 filing for their last block of 767,000 shares in mid- to late-September.

     

    I'm going to miss the clarity that the Form 4s provided, but won't miss regular public reports that are often mischaracterized as *insider dumping*
    20 Jul 2012, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    John, Quercus was only above the 10% threshold all this time due to the 10 million share warrants, is that correct? and now, with their actual shares dwindling to below a million, their total including those warrants is under the ~11.3 million threshold? Do I have any of that straight?
    20 Jul 2012, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You have it all exactly right. They actually dropped below the threshold on July 11th when their share count fell below 1,321,109 shares, but they missed the check box on the July 16th filing so we got six more days of data than we were legally entitled to.

     

    I don't expect the change in their reporting status to change their behavior, but it is one more thing to watch.
    20 Jul 2012, 04:18 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message