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  • Axion Power Concentrator 129: July 20, 2012 86 comments
    Jul 20, 2012 8:47 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Updated July 15th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta from July 7th

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    (updated through close July 13th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    (updated July 16th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (86)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else w/L2 or T & S seeing bid/ask $0.30/$0.30 09:03?

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Thought I would be first to comment on price action this morning, but many already beat me to it. It is still a long day, but find it unusual that price is up early. And last trade that I can see is for .33 and 82,353 volume. And now a few minutes later and up to 172,000. Maybe my hope for a million share day will come true and my thought that Fish is getting entirely out today will prove correct, or maybe not.
    20 Jul 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    I don't see any obvious signs the trustee is selling today--no VERT, no large ask, price up. Maybe he's out, but it's early, though, and I'm not gonna chase. Wonder if any of our brothers who got in at 29 cents flipped some.
    20 Jul 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    There have been a few days since the trustee probably started bailing on the 10th that were low volume--the 12th and the 18th, so maybe he really is just sitting this day out. I guess only time will tell. If I missed the last chance at <30 cents, then damn, but oh well.
    20 Jul 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    Up 12% already this morning. Is the elevator about to start its fast ascent.
    20 Jul 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1908) | Send Message
     
    Why the huge jump between buy and sell?
    20 Jul 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    Someone is not happy selling for ever decreasing prices? Could be a MM stampede attempt.
    20 Jul 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Now we wait...
    20 Jul 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    A reader just sent me a copy of Mary Anne Wright's 7.10.12 testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on behalf of the Electric Drive Transport Association.

     

    The most surprising bit was a table that pegged fuel efficiency gains as follows:

     

    Start-Stop – 5-10%
    Advanced Start-Stop – 10-20%
    Mild Hybrid – 12-20%
    Full Hybrid – 25-50%
    Plug-in Hybrid – 40-60%
    Full EV – 100%

     

    I was surprised to see Advanced Start-Stop in the same range as mild hybrid. They've also pared back the PHEV numbers that were initially promoted at 75%.

     

    Since the best gifts are shared, you can get a copy here:

     

    http://bit.ly/PiWCIc
    20 Jul 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Need to review it but one thing comes to mind quickly based on your quick ref. table.

     

    Isn't that the "opportunity" category for energy storage devices offered by JCI? The sweet spot.
    20 Jul 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    Since she was testifying on behalf of the EDTA, I don't think she focused on the JCI opportunity only.
    20 Jul 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Understood. But my point is that JCI in their analysts day presentation has indicated that the hole they have in their lineup of storage offerings is what we would quickly point out as what appears to be the optimal value offering in EDTA's lineup.

     

    Pardon my optimism but for me it's another data point that supports views expressed here regarding the need for devices like PBC.
    20 Jul 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    I misunderstood your "opportunity" reference. It's clearly in the area other JCI presentations have referred to as "white space."
    20 Jul 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) through 10:53:01
    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 58000, Vol 277203, AvTrSz: 5938
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3142
    # Buys, Shares: 25 182849, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3174
    # Sells, Shares: 20 84354, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3066
    # Unkn, Shares: 28 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3200
    Buy:Sell 2.17:1 (68.4% "buys")

     

    The bid/ask action acted as common: started higher ($0.30$0.326), rose ($0.32/$0.33), dropped ($0.3001/$0.31) and then squiggle up and down since then, 09:56. Currently $0.31/$0.32.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10795) | Send Message
     
    Emerging MAJOR problem with wind power coming from San Diego.

     

    -- Tomorrow at 9 a.m., San Diego County’s Planning Commission will decide whether to approve a wind ordinance that would enable construction of numerous wind energy projects in our region’s mountains, rural and desert communities.

     

    Why, then, did San Diego County’s Health and Human Services Agency just issue a public health position statement that amounts to a whitewash of serious health problems linked to wind turbines around the world?

     

    This week, a coalition representing 600 associations of wind industry victims in 26 countries called for a moratorium on wind turbine projects, citing adverse health impacts among people living near turbines.

     

    -- Stray voltages levels 1,000 times normal have been measured at their tribal hall and church–and an epidemiologist who has been published over 100 peer-reviewed journals blames the voltage and health problems on wind turbines nearby.

     

    -- Numerous residents have been forced to leave their homes, she said, citing symptoms that include chest pain and pressure, earaches, dizziness, nausea, heart palpitations, inability to sleep, ringing in the ears, bleeding from the nose, headaches and hyperthyroidism. Most living within 4,000 to 5,000 feet of turbines.

     

    http://bit.ly/OevtXT
    20 Jul 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    may: I'm not surprised, although I'd never considered it. IIRC, studies long ago noted adverse affects on folks living under high-voltage transmission lines. Also those who slept under electric blankets almost all the time.

     

    Don't recall details though.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    More than enough places far enough from people that are windy. Can increase the cost of transmission lines, though.
    20 Jul 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yep. But then you have the problem of population growth causing creep of development to those former empty places. I think DRich has touched on a similar situation regarding an (XIDE) battery plant in TX.

     

    Also, they want to place many near existing municipalities for exactly the reason you mention.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... People will always build & live "at the end of the runway" because it's cheap (for a reason) and then complain about the noise. Best ignored but makes great "human interest" reporting. Gets fixed when someone else figures a way to make money from these poor souls grief.
    20 Jul 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2965) | Send Message
     
    Mr I, actually there are very few spots in the US with decent wind to produce power. Many of the small and midsize turbines are installed in fairly low wind resource areas. Even some of the big farms are in, at best, moderate areas. Look at http://bit.ly/MMArtv and see how few and small are the onshore areas in group 5 and above.

     

    Amazing what huge subsidies can do, isn't it?
    20 Jul 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    RK, I'm sceptical of the economics of wind power overall. Someone recently posted some stats on capacity utilization for wind and it was extremely low, IIRC. I'm largely ignorant of wind power, though, so maybe it really is worthy of capital.

     

    As far as suitable locations, if there are really any, I see a lot of sq miles of purple and above on the map:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Nn6cyc

     

    Of course, I would think that many factors are important for suitable sites, such as intra-day wind speed (does it tend to blow when you need it?), transmission line length, minimal NIMBY protests, etc. Is the giant proposed project off the mid-atlantic coast still moving forward?
    20 Jul 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Check John's articles - he did one on that intermittent issue a while back.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2965) | Send Message
     
    Mr I - There are a lot of problems with wind power without backup, and I am not trying to rationalize it.

     

    The original conversation was about on-shore wind power in California, which is not good resource. If we are going to be forced to build / use wind power, at least let's put them in really windy areas, such as Minnesota.

     

    Almost impossible in this country is to get new transmission lines built. Megavolt DC lines could carry the Minnesota juice to Chicago and East, but California is probably too far. The People Who "No" are far too powerful to get major projects built, however.
    20 Jul 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    RK, when you mentioned the US, I thought you were opening the discussion to the whole US. Driving south on Rt 65 towards Indianapolis this March, I was amazed at all the windmills. 100's of them, it seemed. In a somewhat windy area, close to a couple of major pop. centers, and in sparcely populated farmland. Those giant scarecrows help keep the crow population down, too, lol.
    20 Jul 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Since this has been a topic of conversation. Sorry if it was posted already.

     

    Inside GE’s New Battery Factory

     

    http://bit.ly/OMyo8g
    20 Jul 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Pretty encouraging volume (324K at 11:32 CDT) for a summer Friday, and without the obvious presence of "big motivated sellers."

     

    Guess Monday will tell whether they're done or just on vacation.

     

    On the other hand, there are 5 different Market Makers in the .325 offer neighborhood: ATDF ETRF ERGO FANC NITE

     

    Smaller fry flippers?
    20 Jul 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    And no one has even mentioned the poor Owls, and Eagles, what about them? Where are their protectors?
    20 Jul 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Yep, big double standard there. We shut down nucler power plants to protect tiny darters that it turns out were not so endangered all along, but piles of dead birds (I guess they will bulldoze them up every few months) is no problem?

     

    Its GOOD to be the new econobility...
    20 Jul 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, there have been objections raised due to the bird strike problem. But has been no major pressure from those that normally raise the hue and cry.

     

    HardToLvoe
    20 Jul 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1927) | Send Message
     
    Birds getting whacked by these things peaked my interest a bit and I found this article from 2009. A real shocker I didn't here more about it through my very trusted mainstream media outlets.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/LxSgvi
    20 Jul 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2965) | Send Message
     
    Bird being whacked is mostly an Internet myth and Audubon propaganda. The one major, stupid exception is Altamonte Pass in California, which used to kill a lot of birds because it is located right in the middle of a major flyway. The old, small turbines there spun very fast compared to modern turbines, so makes them even more lethal. Today, Altamonte Pass turbines are shut down during migration season.

     

    Modern, big turbines, intelligently sited, kill about 1 to 2 birds a year, about the same as a domestic cat. Each modern all-glass skyscraper kills 1,500 to 5,000 birds a year.

     

    There are a lot of issues with turbines, but bird kill should not be one. However, turbines do kill a lot of bats, but most people do not care about them.

     

    If we want to fight wind turbines, fight them on economic and grid stability issues, not fictions like birds.
    20 Jul 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4367) | Send Message
     
    "turbines do kill a lot of bats, but most people do not care about them.

     

    If we want to fight wind turbines, fight them on economic and grid stability issues, not fictions like birds."

     

    :-) Random thought. Anyone ever see a cost/benefit analysis of wind turbines that considered effect on agricultural losses from change in insect populations due to removal of bug predators (bats, birds)?
    20 Jul 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Double standards annoy me, wherever they lie.
    20 Jul 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • steeleydock
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Cats kill a billion birds a year?
    20 Jul 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Not too many birds of prey though. Then I suspect it's inverted but not to the same magnitude.

     

    Maybe if people put little beanie caps on their cats it'll be OK?

     

    Note that the twirly is green. Doesn't look as threatening does it?

     

    http://bit.ly/NOCnX4
    20 Jul 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1927) | Send Message
     
    Its a jungle out there...apparently windows reach out and kill their fair share as well.

     

    I love getting on a subject about how birds die in a battery forum.
    20 Jul 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    hmmm, birds are rumored to die due to a side-effect from A-AS. A newly discovered disease in battery discussion forums.

     

    Background: The origin seems to be Axionistas forgetting to feed their birds while trying desperately to keep up with the concentrators.

     

    A-AS: APH-Addiction Syndrome
    20 Jul 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    Other than supply/demand developments in the shares themselves, we're in a news vacuum, so folks go stir crazy. Just got back from running around the house 10x myself. ;^P
    20 Jul 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1927) | Send Message
     
    Did you leap up and paw at birds in mid-flight?
    20 Jul 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Poul,
    I was just thinking the same thing about forgetting to feed birds as I am house setting and have to remember to feed the budgies.
    20 Jul 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how they came up with that figure. Kind of reminds me of an old erroneous statistics tale about how someone ascertained that it was safer for cats to fall from above the fourth floor of a building.
    20 Jul 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    takes one to know one
    21 Jul 2012, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1845) | Send Message
     
    There are still too many pigeons and seagulls.

     

    They're the disease. Windmills are the cure.

     

    D
    22 Jul 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Psst, Squab.

     

    If we can just get McDonalds to add it to the menu and for Justin Beiber to say he loves it. Carrier pigeon.
    22 Jul 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    According to my spreadsheet, since July 10, potentially when the trustee first stuck its toe in the water, Axion has traded 4,842,685 shares. I estimate that Quercus has sold in total about 617,509 shares and has around 222,500 shares left for this go-around. Minus the Quercus sales since July 10th, there have been 1,937,074 in sales, with caveat, as John pointed out, that all were recorded as double transactions. If trustee were selling 2 million shares, and began on 10 July, he would not be out of shares yet; especially if considering trustee not responsible for 100% of shares outside of Q.

     

    Just need a couple more weeks of volume like this week.
    20 Jul 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Well it sure seemed a little different today then the last few trading sessions. Hopefully the ugliest of the three muchachos has been pretty much neutered. The balance seem to have, either forced or not, more street smarts.

     

    I sense leaning toward two for one share count for the entire trading volume is ultra conservative.
    20 Jul 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    How did you subtract 617,500 Quercus shares from 4,842,685 total shares and end up with 1,937,074?!?

     

    You can't have been just double-counting the 4.8M shares as you'd still be well over 2M...

     

    Now my head hurts.
    20 Jul 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Just for the record, I took no part in neutering the ugly muchacho as I was frozen out by the unexpected price increase today.

     

    I would bet that sentence has never been uttered before.
    20 Jul 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1908) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the laugh
    20 Jul 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    Metro: LoL!

     

    If it helps, I tried to buy again yesterday but the All-or-none thing keeps locking me out. So I just have to watch it go up today and think that it won't continue.

     

    I think it's a bump off the bottom as many who might have been waiting take advantage (or believe what I've been saying - downside risk is low).

     

    I'm sticking to my plan - buy at absurdly low or when I think it's demonstrated the start of a sustainable move upward.

     

    But man it's tough to leave that pistola laying there!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    I think we're drawing very near to an inflection point in the supply and demand cycle where the shares available on the sell-side are not enough to satisfy the demand for shares on the buy-side.

     

    I've been down this road with other clients that had too much available supply and not enough demand. They both reached points where the dynamic changed and the results were both instantaneous and spectacular. In both cases I was brain dead while the process unfolded and I didn't recognize that conditions were changing until they already had. That means I didn't watch the process while it was unfolding and I had to learn what I could by evaluating history.

     

    It's different with Axion because I started paying close attention in May 2010 when the first round of selling pressure from the Liquidation Trust, the FURSA liquidator and the flippers from the December 2009 financing kicked in and pushed the price down. I knew for a fact that I'd been down that road before and this time I was intent on studying the process as it unfolded instead of trying to dope out "what just happened" by looking backwards.

     

    I see some striking parallels between what's happening today and what happened in early 2011 before a new raft of sellers emerged on the scene. The price went boringly flat for a coupe months as things came into balance and then ramped beautifully until the Winner Estate, Special Sits and Quercus all started selling at the same time.

     

    This time around I can't identify any potential sellers that have enough stock to stop a run once it starts. In February of last year, three identifiable sellers emerged on the scene that collectively wanted to move over 400 days of sell-side trading volume. Today the three *big* sellers collectively want to move about 20 days of sell-side trading volume. Once they're gone, I can't identify anybody who can step in and fill the supply gap with *weight*

     

    At the beginning of July demand was mushy and volumes were very low, so I said that I didn't see how the selling pressure could continue through the end of summer. With the volumes we've seen since the 6th, I'm currently thinking that the pressure can't continue through the next conference call.

     

    Over the last two years we've had a sequence of "bad luck" events where big holders who *should* have been stable became willing sellers. The list of people who emerged on the scene as persistent sellers is lengthy and includes:

     

    2010 sellers:

     

    FURSA;
    Liquidation Trust; and
    Small 2009 investors.

     

    2011-2012 sellers:

     

    Winner Estate;
    The Querus Trust;
    Special Situations;
    Blackrock; and maybe
    Manatuck Hill

     

    Most of those sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. Frankly, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around.

     

    Unless you're convinced that the Axionistas who've been buying over the last two years will exit en masse at the first sign of an uptick, the next couple months will be fascinating. I expect it to be a great education.
    21 Jul 2012, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (623) | Send Message
     
    JP: I agree but I fear that once the forced selling is done, we'll go back to $.35 with very low volume. The silence from Axion is surprising. You'd think there would be a certain trickle of government-type projects like the Navy Yard that could be reported via press-release. Of course, this is more of a psychological thing since we know that testing momentum is building.

     

    Nevertheless, I will be extremely surprised if the stock goes to $.50 or $.60 purely based on the big sellers running out of shares. I think we'll go back to sub 100k volume until we get a catalyst. The NS over-the-road locomotive sale, given how it is anticipated, likely won't be that catalyst. It could be a very quiet 3rd quarter and for that matter 4th quarter as well. By that point, financing concerns will be back in focus.

     

    Yes, the residential power cube could help. Positive reviews and substantial (a few hundred) pre-orders (with deposits) could get the stock to the $.75 range. The good news about the Residential Cube is that the company (speaking broadly including Rosewater) controls its own destiny and isn't waiting for other folks' timetables.

     

    Also, I'm not as confident as you are about the Axionistas. Your writing and leadership, as well as the concentrators do a fantastic job of holding our little coalition together, but people are over-invested in Axion, and the economy and human psychology do not favor us. In no way does this reflect any weakening resolve on my part (I'm lamenting not being in a position to add to my Axion holdings at the $.30 level).

     

    John, I'm very much looking forward to getting educated but my expectation is $.35.
    21 Jul 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    Ahh, Manatuck Hill. What do we know about their AXPW holding except, "7,200,000 shares were transferred to street name on 6-3-10. We do not have the benefit of further information." from Axion's latest proxy stmt?

     

    When I recently checked "Insider Monkey", a hedge fund site that lists Manatuck Hill Partners' holdings, there is no Axion holding listed for 3-31-2012, although that's true going back as far as the display will allow, which is 12-31-2010. Could be missing or erroneous data, though.

     

    I haven't been able to find Manny Hill ownership SEC filings regarding Axion. Don't know why that is, unless they are exempted or just never filed. So if there never was one for the 7.2 mil shares purchased like the other big buyers filed, I suppose to not see one if they are below 5% is consistent. Or I could just be missing the filings that have been made--we have some much better, world-class internet searchers here, thank goodness. What can you guys find?
    21 Jul 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Small nit regarding "The good news about the Residential Cube is that the company (speaking broadly including Rosewater) controls its own destiny and isn't waiting for other folks' timetables. "

     

    I don't know it for a fact, but it's been suggested here that the inverter supplier to Rosewater/Us for the residential minicube, Indy Power Systems, doesn't have yet have UL certification. As a poorer shareholder of ZBB Energy, I can assure you that timetable can be a pain in your ass. We still don't know whether problems were discovered that required a restart to ZBB's testing (even though a similar smaller inverter achieved certification,) or whether there's simply too many companies competing for too scarce "UL certification" resources. If it's the later, I'm not sure a call from Indy Power Systems beats calls/pressure from GE, Eaton, etc.

     

    I'm not saying it won't ultimately become an important source of income, just that it may take longer than we hope, and possibly not till after the next financing is required or done due to prudent financing strategy given economic conditions outside our control, e.g., a serious worldwide slowdown that snowballs a bit.
    21 Jul 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    The biggest price runs I've seen over the course of my career have come from supply and demand inflections that had nothing to do with identifiable business events. Axion could be different, but I believe the stock should never have fallen below $1.15 and the only reason it did was ruthless selling in May of 2010 that started a fear cascade. Markets are creatures of emotion, not logic.

     

    There were no events in the first quarter of 2011 that drove the price to a double. The run was just getting up a head of steam when three huge holders began selling and crushed the rally.

     

    Investors always complain that they're "overweight" on a stock that isn't meeting their expectations. As soon as it starts to meet their expectations, they suddenly discover that they're underweight.

     

    I don't know what's going to happen next because I've never had a client suffer this much for this long.
    21 Jul 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    Axion is in an odd position because it's not in the class of securities that fund managers must include on their holdings reports. Special Situations always included Axion in their reports, but they weren't technically required to. Blackrock, in comparison, has never included Axion. To complicate matters further, some funds that use the same advisor for management are legally structured so that they don't have to report as a group. The information is swell when you can find it, but not being able to find it really doesn't say much one way or the other.

     

    The Manatuck advisor I met in 2010 left in March of this year because he grew tired of living in PA and working in NYC. As near as I can tell it was a friendly departure, but one of the things responsible managers do before a transition is clean their desks so that their successor doesn't inherit a mess.

     

    I see two possible scenarios; they're either in and solid as a rock or they're already gone and not worth worrying about.
    21 Jul 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1933) | Send Message
     
    >>>Investors always complain that they're "overweight" on a stock that isn't meeting their expectations. As soon as it starts to meet their expectations, they suddenly discover that they're underweight.>>&a...

     

    LMAO! I've never heard a more true statement. Since "overwieght" and "underweight" is certainly "in the money" or "out of the money" dependent!!!!
    21 Jul 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (623) | Send Message
     
    Commentary in Forbes (via Stationary Electricity Storage News) about storage. Nothing new, but a step in the right direction.

     

    http://onforb.es/PrU3DL
    21 Jul 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Any of you Freedom of Information wizards taken a run at the Fort Meade microgrid work that VIridity is involved in?
    21 Jul 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4367) | Send Message
     
    wtb, I haven't seen any contract awards announced. Doesn't mean the contract has not been awarded. I haven't tried to track the project.
    21 Jul 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    The ole registered PowerCube.

     

    http://bit.ly/AqTLHr
    21 Jul 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4367) | Send Message
     
    Interesting! It appears someone has a problem. Diverse Energy is claiming trademark of the device name. Will be interesting to learn whether Axion Power sought trademark protection and how they respond.
    22 Jul 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    I think it's a point of interest in a penny stock that can't come close to creating enough news to satisfy a small attentive hungry audience. No more no less.
    22 Jul 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    Looks like trouble: "Copyright Diverse Energy 2009". This suggests they might have been using the term for a long time.

     

    Looking at their history page we see

     

    2008

     

    Production of PowerCubes® for off-grid field trials in key emerging markets.

     

    Design and optimization of the complete PowerCube® using 7th generation system.

     

    EDIT: Looking at their news page, http://bit.ly/PwXM6u, the first use of the reserved symbol appears 17/08/2009. Then one or two more uses and a lot of later uses with no symbol. Then the "Trademark" symbol appears 22/11/2010, but again is not consistently applied, which from my days at the big company ISTR this was very important.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    I hate bad timing. I want to add another large block but on Monday started a new job that for a variety of reasons kept me from the web. I was enjoying retirement but an offer fell in my lap that will allow me to travel to Charlotte some and work from home much. Too much money to turn it down.

     

    Anyway, I'm waiting for a money transfer to happen and it is agonizingly slow. I would have loved to grab all of those 30 centers. I'll be happy with anything under .40 but cheaper is always better. I hope John's inflection point holds off just a bit.

     

    As for the bird kills mentioned above, a pair of sharp-shinned hawks have taken up residence in my woods. Facinating to watch, as the frequently sit on my fence and in the trees and even shower in my lawn spinkler. Down side is they eat smaller birds for dinner. Goldfinch and junko population may suffer.
    22 Jul 2012, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    If it's any comfort I don't think we're there yet – but I know we're getting close. It's times like this that make me I wish I'd been paying closer attention to the day to day dynamics when my earlier clients were going through the process. My biggest handicap today is knowing that I've been down this road before but not knowing exactly what the signposts mean.
    22 Jul 2012, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (623) | Send Message
     
    JP's note and my response got me to thinking further. I'm a very analytical person and look for cause and effect; ie a catalyst to cause the stock to run.

     

    However, thinking back to January when the Axion stock price ran, I seem to recall a certain expectation that good news would be coming soon (Norfolk Southern for sure, but also that things were about to break loose and the financing would take place from a position of strength). Now, was that a news-driven rally, or to some extent were we creating a narrative that explained the rally? Maybe folks with better memories or time to review the concentrators from back then may be able to share more light.

     

    I'm not a psychologist but narrative fallacy would seem to be a very common problem (we naturally fill in logic to explain a random sequence of events or something we just don't understand). I think we have a couple of psychologists amongst us so maybe you would care to comment.

     

    So hopefully JP will be proved right. In either case, I'm looking forward to being educated.
    22 Jul 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    I look at January 2012 year as a "relief rally" after the intense selling pressure we saw at the end of 2011. That rally got crushed by the terms of the direct public offering announced February 1st.

     

    The rally that had all the earmarks of a supply and demand inflection point started at the end of January 2011 and ran through the end of March before it got overwhelmed by selling from the estate, Special Situations and Quercus.

     

    Your search for a cause and effect relationship is spot-on for larger cap stocks that have high levels of liquidity. When you get down into nano-cap stocks with little or no liquidity, it's more like feeding a toddler. There are days when the kid has a voracious appetite and will eat anything in reach. Then there are days when the kid is cranky and if you force the issue it will spit up on your shoes.

     

    The analysis is always relativistic and a question of proportionality.

     

    In the 12-months ended April 30, 2010, a total of 4,080,200 shares traded on the sell-side. In May of 2010, the bankruptcy trustee and the FURSA liquidator showed up with 3,290,469 shares that they wanted to sell quickly and started forcing into the market.

     

    The market puked all over the forced feeding.

     

    In the 12 months ended February 28, 2011, a total of 15,326,600 shares traded on the sell-side. In March of 2011, Special Sits and the estate showed up with 17,017,544 shares that they wanted to sell. They were joined by Quercus wanted to sell 3.5 million shares.

     

    The market puked even more violently than it had the year before.

     

    In the 12 months ended January 31, 2012, a total of 42,774,150 shares traded on the sell side. In early February the company sold 28 million shares in a direct offering and in mid-April we learned that Blackrock had sold a million shares. The FINRA short reports led us to conclude that Blackrock was selling its entire position. Last month we learned that the bankruptcy trustee was going to sell another 2 million shares.

     

    After two miserable years of cleaning up after a force fed market that kept puking on our shoes, everybody assumes (a) that all the direct offering shares will be dumped, and (b) the market will react every bit as violently as it had in the prior two years.

     

    It's a conditioned response at this point. We're like Pavlov's dog's who cringe at the idea that somebody's going to sell a few shares.

     

    For the 12 months ended June 30th, a total of 38,841,250 shares traded on the sell-side. Quercus has a million shares left. We think the bankruptcy trustee and Blackrock have about a million shares each. There may be some February buyers who are willing to sell for a modest gain, but the economic appeal of flipping after a 6 month hold is significantly different than the appeal of flipping after a two week hold.

     

    This clip epitomizes the situation we face today.

     

    http://bit.ly/Mwi6UL
    22 Jul 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall62: "I'm looking forward to being educated".

     

    LoL! In this market, that may mean getting a spanking, just like it did when I was a child. I hope to avoid that path towards learning again (been there, done that a lot already in this market!). :-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4367) | Send Message
     
    "... thinking back to January when the Axion stock price ran, I seem to recall a certain expectation that good news would be coming soon (Norfolk Southern for sure, but also that things were about to break loose and the financing would take place from a position of strength). "

     

    Seems to me you put your finger on the proximate explanation for the January run up in share price - expectations of rising momentum. Expectations were aided with announcement first week of January of a Washington Navy Yard net zero eneergy building contract for delivery of a mini-powercube and strong expectations for a NSC contract. Hiring of Vani Dantam followed. Share price gains were largely wiped out on disclosure of direct placement at $0.35 share. NSC contract actually realized has disappointed time wise. Expectations of building momentum still exist, but with rising demand for proof of the pudding.
    22 Jul 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... It's a little off-topic, but I know how you like Capstone turbines. I found the following application description of marine usage might interest you. The paper is a master's thesis that sums up marine hybrid technologies conveniently in one spot but the relevant part is on page 17.

     

    http://bit.ly/O8OlJr

     

    My interest was in the DC Bus (page 24) with a possible UQM tie-in but also sections OPTION 3 (Batteries-page 34) & OPTION 5 (SuperCapacitors-page 38). Has anyone ever heard of Axion's PbC or payed any attention to Norfolk Southern's testing?

     

    This link is from the HYMAR project and is interesting because it explains as clearly as anything in short form I've seen, why parallel hybrid systems will become big business. Maybe, even for Axion.

     

    [quote]
    In terms of individual system components, probably the most challenging element is the energy storage. To run a generator at its optimum, it has to be correctly loaded, which means that the batteries have to be able to absorb high levels of energy quickly. Similarly they need to be able to deliver their power quickly in order to meet the demands of electric propulsion. Battery choice is therefore a question of balancing total life cost with charge/discharge rates, efficiency, cyclic life, management complexity and energy density. Not an easy mix. Advanced lead acid batteries based on thin plate pure lead (TPPL) technologies, such as those from HYMAR partner Enersys, deliver acceptable performance at a reasonable price. Lithium ion technologies, such as those from Mastervolt, have significant performance advantages but at a high price. Lithium polymer batteries, just becoming available for marine use, but at yet greater expense, are even more efficient. Ultimately, battery choice depends on the specific application but the important message is that there are viable options.
    [quote]

     

    http://bit.ly/MhrvNr
    22 Jul 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich! I see in the first one right there in the abstract that MTs are mentioned. "There are many options for hybridization to include high powered lithium battery banks, wind turbines, solar panels, fuel cells, super capacitors and micro turbines".

     

    And there's an LNG carrier that already using (CPST) for the aux power, IIRC ... Hang on ... Yep.

     

    "Capstone Turbines Provide Main Electrical Power for Green Ship"

     

    http://bit.ly/QoiVRR

     

    It's going to take a while to get through that first PDF, but looks to be quite informative.

     

    The second PDF seems to offer another niche for not only AXPW, but possibly CPST, *depending* on just how efficient the new turbines are with austinetic alloys, a CFD-designed turbine with better sealing as well.

     

    And the new C370 with low and high pressure circuits (effectively a compounding design that allows either one or both to be in use at any time) should have even higher efficiency. I wonder if it will approach diesel efficiency on just generation alone.

     

    Anyway, like the diesel, current and future CPST MTs (except the C370) will do best at a constant loading. If the C370 is considered, it would seem the applicabilty might expand.

     

    Thanks for two great links! It'll take me a while to get through that first one.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Good news in my book.

     

    And thrilled it didn't take them 4-5 years to do it.

     

    FERC Proposes Large Penalties for Alleged Market Manipulation in ISO-NE Demand Response Program

     

    http://bit.ly/OUR1uq
    22 Jul 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the SEC could learn something from them so that the SEC knows how do do something other than request more funding!

     

    And notice the sizes of the fines and civil penalties? I bet these are proportionally a lot large that what's bee levied on GS and the like.

     

    Good to see *something* the government does that's supposed to protect folks actually apparently work!

     

    Good find WTB!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Maybe the SEC *could* learn something ... but I doubt it. I mean who, in their right mind, is going to make life anything but easier on their future employer. The regulatory structure is one of self regulation within an industry. People come from & enter/return to the private sector via a hitch on regulatory boards ... hopefully at ever increasing station. Unless we are interested in closing this revolving door (Ha! Ha!) one might ask why one set of regulators is closer to actually regulating than another. This is after all America and money is the only thing that matters so lets' look there.

     

    Regulated power industry pay ratio

     

    http://bit.ly/Oi0M3T

     

    is roughly about 140% - 160% of what FERC pays.

     

    http://bit.ly/Oi0M3V

     

    For the SEC, the regulated industry pay ratio

     

    http://bit.ly/MwXR9u

     

    is roughly about 300% - 1000%+ of what SEC pays

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Oi0Lgl

     

    On a purely compensation basis, the incentive for a FERC regulator might be seen as a need to do a good & fair job that is balanced to the public interest and not jeopardize future industry employment. With the SEC, there is no need to do anything but cater to the needs of the industry & your financial/employment future. If there is time left over a SEC regulator might, kinda, sorta, maybe look like the public matters ... just a little around the edges.
    22 Jul 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Here's an older Saft paper on asymmetric capacitors for anyone that hasn't seen it. It's a good basic read on the technology and what its strengths are. Saft supplies nickel carbon asymmetric capacitors vs Axion's offering. You'll note they have a lower operating voltage/cell and thus a lower energy density vs PBC.

     

    http://bit.ly/LH45nL
    22 Jul 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (998) | Send Message
     
    Previously posted...

     

    Storage, Not Generation, is the Challenge to Renewable Energy

     

    http://onforb.es/PrU3DL

     

    "Transforming the energy situation so that renewables provide the majority of the world’s usable power requires one essential missing element: energy storage."

     

    With all the changes of late, anyone close to AXPW re end stage storage user testing?
    22 Jul 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    John, Have you seen Axion publish any info. concerning their current power density on the PBC battery? I know their energy density is about 24-25 Wh/kg.

     

    I was just wondering when I look at this Navy presentation and see "goal" on the chart pg 14.

     

    Also note the table further down the presentation that gives surface area for some different carbons. It was interesting to see Kurray has another offering that has more surface area than their coconut shell based carbon which last we know Axion was using in the PBC. Anyway "For the future".

     

    http://bit.ly/Qpd0ft
    22 Jul 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    The closest thing I've seen to a power rating was a reference in the Axion-GM grant application to capacitance of 13,000 F. I suspect that the PbC would probably be a poor choice for somebody who needs a high power capacitor, the same way it's a poor choice for somebody who needs a high energy battery. There seem to be a lot of middle ground users, however, who need more power than they can get from a battery and more energy than they can get from a capacitor.

     

    When the discussions got down to pore size and surface area issues they were officially out of my depth, but experience apparently showed that uniformity was a problem rather than a virtue and the device performed best when the carbons had a variety of nano-, meso- and macro-pores
    22 Jul 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Thanks,

     

    If you look at the target "goal" on the graph it's definitely a compromise position between the power and energy devices as you suggest. It just looks like Axion is falling into the target area and yet no mention in this paper.

     

    And once again I'll indicate that PBC is far superior in energy density to it's Russian competitor in energy and cost. I suggest cost due to the difference in lead vs Ni pricing.

     

    As for the carbon thing. I've seen tons of snips on dated theory and it's all over the place. My background isn't going to make it any clearer for sure. I'm still waiting for the results of the Sandia/East Penn study that concludes next month on carbon additives for lead/carbon negative plates. Different application but should be interesting.
    23 Jul 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea when the research noted here started, but I was interested to note slides 12 and 13 devoted to Altairnano given that I believe it's now 49% Chinese owned.

     

    Not up on where there production is done, but do we really want to design military systems to depend on their technology, or assist them in research, or allow them anywhere near our computer systems?
    23 Jul 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30652) | Send Message
     
    Altair is 53% chinese owned, not 49%.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/MDwBnW
    23 Jul 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    7/20/2012: Partially copied from my EOD experimental charts blog.
    # Trds: 94, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 58000, Vol 509205, AvTrSz: 5417
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3179
    # Buys, Shares: 64 368809, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3208
    # Sells, Shares: 30 140396, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3100
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.63:1 (72.4% “buys”) DlyShts 250209 (49.1%)

     

    First an oddity: there was an AH trade of 15K shares at $0.31, above the low and below the VWAP. What makes it odd, to me, is that it is not near 1/11th of the daily volume, as has been the case when we saw trades apparently associated with Quercus selling. If the normal 10% was involved, the size would have been around 46.3K.

     

    Adding the 15K to FINRA's reported short sales would put the percentage at 52.1%.

     

    <snip>

     

    What does it mean? Can't say. Maybe Quercus had a planned sale at this maximum level regardless of the daily volume? Maybe the market-maker was balancing his portfolio against some early transactions? If/when we see another Form-4, maybe we'll know.

     

    After yesterday's push down on 743K I was surprised to see a push back up on 509K. My best guess is that folks that had been waiting saw the push go as low as $0.29 briefly yesterday and its subsequent rebound to close at $0.2950 and bought into my feeling that there was little downside risk ... finally! Of course, that's just my ego talking! :-))

     

    CHOPPED HERE AS IT GOT LONG.

     

    Should be up in a couple hours in the instablog if you want more.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3174) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'd assume Q was 10% yet again, regardless of how their trades were divided.

     

    I'm interested in who you think the other 200k short came from.
    22 Jul 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18523) | Send Message
     
    MrI: the short version of the other 200k would be my best guess is Blackrock because they have certificates to convert. But there's an unknown about the Mega-C shares: are they at a brokerage that owns an MM or has quick access to an MM or not. If they don't have that ability to transfer the shares into an MM account quickly, any sales they made would likely also be flagged short sales.

     

    Either way, I think combo of BR/Mega-C seems most likely at those volumes, with maybe a few oddball shares thrown in.

     

    But it is *only* a guess.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jul 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (516) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Charts and updates from HTL and JP so I decided to just start a new APC for the week.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    23 Jul 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
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