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  • Axion Power Concentrator 132: July 28, 2012 198 comments
    Jul 28, 2012 11:01 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Updated July 25th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    The last 10 days have been very strong from a volume perspective so instead of sharing a single chart that combines price and volume data, I've attached copies of the more detailed price and volume charts I refer to on a regular basis. The timescales aren't a perfect overlay, but they're very close and I think it's useful to see how price activity and volume have correlated in the past.

    Over the last two years we've had a sequence of unfortunate events where big holders who *should* have been stable became persistent sellers. The list of significant stockholders and groups that emerged on the scene as persistent sellers is lengthy and includes:

    2010 sellers: FURSA; Liquidation Trust; and Small 2009 investors.

    2011-2012 sellers: Winner Estate; The Quercus Trust; Special Situations; Blackrock; and maybe Manatuck Hill

    Most of those sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. As near as I can tell, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around. I find the current volume spike particularly encouraging because it seems to be a final blow out of the last shares remaining in weak hands. Given the number of shares that have already traded this month I think there's a good chance that our persistent sellers will be out of stock before the mid-August conference call.

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close July 27th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated July 28th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concnetrator Comments:

    (updated July 28th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (198)
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  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Nominees for the next APH icon... in the spirit of patience and no worries:

     

    1) http://bit.ly/PO6I70
    2) http://bit.ly/OZVicH
    3) http://bit.ly/OZVk4n
    4) http://bit.ly/PO6I7c
    5) http://bit.ly/OZVicL
    28 Jul 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I've always been partial to Bobby McFerrin.
    28 Jul 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I likey me this one:

     

    http://bit.ly/MSvDo2
    28 Jul 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Don't Worry, Be Happy.

     

    I prefer "Don't Panic" but saying that is a pretty poor way to keep people from panicing...
    28 Jul 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I think you found a great image for both Axion and the Axionistas 481086.
    28 Jul 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yes, It is funny how the masses will de-emphasize the first word in that statement under stressful situations.
    28 Jul 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I know others have talked about this and the fact that weight is not mission critical in this area.

     

    The zero emissions container ship

     

    http://bit.ly/Mr7eoD

     

    I vote for;

     

    http://bit.ly/Mr7dB7
    28 Jul 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: you got to stop with those pics! Cracking me up ruins my constipation ... er "concentration" (No I'm *not* Malaprop Man!).

     

    On the computing front, thanks for the laugh. Video went out on my main unit and I had to load my backup unit (*much* slower) with latest backup.

     

    It seems so slow, I'm going to rename it Axion Business Development.

     

    I shouldn't complain. This old 2200PR AMD Duron w/2GB has been a workhorse for many years. I can't expect it to keep pace with a 6-core Phenom w/4GB of memory.

     

    But I do wish it would hurry up! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    XIDE as a turnaround story:

     

    http://bit.ly/PVEvft

     

    Includes this "nugget" near the end:

     

    "Despite these improvements, Exide's valuation remains cheap compared to its competitors. If management can't get the stock price up, we expect it to face substantial pressure to sell the company."

     

    Are the many candidates to buy these guys?

     

    Maybe Mitt will get the gang back together if that Presidential thing doesn't work out :-)
    28 Jul 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    The Chinese have been about the only ones stepping up at a large level and buying old auto assets. That would seem like a good fit for Exide. However I caution. Much of the heavy lifting of cleaning up their problems has been done. Now it's more a matter of showing the numbers to prove it.
    28 Jul 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    It would be a crying shame to see five years of restructuring success thrown aside because shareholders got impatient when the hard work was just about ready to pay off in spades. Mercifully, its easier for a blogger to speculate about "pressure to sell the company" than it would be for stockholders to try and force the issue.

     

    My tracking tables show Exide trading at 8% of sales while JCI trades at 40% of sales and Enersys trades at 72% of sales. Those numbers alone suggest that Exide should be $15 if you think JCI is the closest peer and a whopping $27 if you think Enersys is a better comparison.

     

    Everybody on these concentrators knows about my seething resentment over Exide's behavior with Axion. While I think their management should rot in the seventh circle of hell for their behavior, I can't help but believe their stock is one of the better opportunities in the sector,
    28 Jul 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    One other metric of interest. If I recall correctly JCI's battery biz in their last earnings report is noted as the most profitable sector of their holdings so it's even sweeter than the JCI/Exide ratio would suggest.

     

    I found it interesting that JCI's CEO mentioned that he was contemplating dumping the battery biz a few years back. Saw this in an older read. Perhaps a good clue that Exide holders should take note of.

     

    I'll temper my feelings a little on the Exide/Axion thing. Having come from the auto biz I can tell you I've seen some ugly ugly things and yet I'd not seen anything like the worst of it. It's an SOB of a business. I remember a speech given at one of the annual business get-togethers by the head of TRW. In the speech he pointed out his amazement that he'd never witnessed two groups, the auto OEMs and the suppliers, that were so dependent on one another yet hated each other so much. A few years ago so and we get to look back a little less distant and see the outcome. Exide is a remnant of that mess. Most didn't survive it intact.
    28 Jul 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Some might be interested in this future world article.

     

    New Ultracapacitor Delivers a Jolt of Energy at a Constant Voltage

     

    http://bit.ly/SZ5Mxv
    28 Jul 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I have a hard time believing that an electrochemical device with an electromechanical voltage control system will ever be cost-effective.
    28 Jul 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yes, But it is neato cool!

     

    And who knows. Who would have ever thought that the masses would be walking around talking about nothing on wireless headsets? Buying bottled water and complaining about gas prices while driving a 6,000 lb SUV.

     

    I don't see it replacing lead acid batteries in cars but in more profitable sectors like electronics. I'll tell you what. If someone comes up with a cell phone energy storage device that is compact with two to three times the energy density. Those guys and gals are going to be all over it. Oh and the more affluent that can really afford it as well.

     

    This might be a happy alternative. A little less energy density but charges in 30 seconds. Well........sign me up! I can say nuttin' all day!
    28 Jul 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Start-up develops shift-based battery management system

     

    "‘The design is scalable, but for a start-up company such as us the hurdles to overcome to get into an a big auto manufacturer are quite big, so we thought it better to walk before we can run,’ said Lawson."

     

    http://bit.ly/NA8TN8
    28 Jul 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • jmcheln
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Hi Axionistas;

     

    Long time Long; and Long time lurker. Love the APC's; much indebted to all the "istas". I've learned a lot.

     

    A couple of articles... on two very different topics that might be of interest... (and hoping they haven't been posted already).

     

    First, a short article re: the EU; politics, and the push (and push-back) for tougher CO2 emission regs:

     

    EU push for car CO2 cuts faces industry, green flak
    http://yhoo.it/OvDUjB

     

    Second... an article re: Siemens research... addressing electric trucks/freight...
    Into the future – with eHighway Innovative solutions for road freight traffic:

     

    http://bit.ly/OufEMC

     

    - - jmcheln
    28 Jul 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    jmcheln, Thanks for the articles. I've seen some of the Siemens electrification proposals but not any prior information on the "negotiations" going on in Europe over vehicle efficiency.

     

    Welcome to the board. Well not really a new welcome since you've been here but welcome anyway! :)

     

    Always good to have people interested in the industrial sector and Axion sharing their findings and thoughts.
    28 Jul 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • jmcheln
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    iindelco; many thanks, and much appreciated.
    Good to see that despite the difficult economic times in Europe; the push is still on to lower emissions; and hopefully; eventually axion will be part of that lowering - - jmcheln
    28 Jul 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 7/27/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 64300, Vol 182660, AvTrSz: 6765
    Min. Pr: 0.3350, Max Pr: 0.3450, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3382
    # Buys, Shares: 18 138960, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3383
    # Sells, Shares: 4 23000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3400
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 20700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3354
    Buy:Sell 3.27:1 (76.1% “buys”), DlyShts 95130 (52.1%)

     

    It looks like Quercus was in – we had a 16K AH “buy” at $0.335, almost exactly 10% of the volume prior to that trade. Adding the 16K AH trade to FINRA day's volume would lower that short percentage to my calculated percentage, 52.1%. Adding it to the short sales too would increase the FINRA and my calculated percentage to 60.8%.

     

    I suspect we had at least one other big seller in today, via NITE (market-maker of Night Capital Management I believe) as at 10:11 they jumped ahead of the ask with $0.335/64K after an aggregate 30.6K went @ $0.34/$0.345. Their shares were gobbled up at 11:04 and the initial ask line up seen since the open came back: ARCA, FANC and NITE all 5K *presented* at $0.345. With only standard blocks presented, we can't have any idea of what the real volumes lined up for sale at those market-makers are.

     

    A word about average trade size and buy:sell seems in order. Since that NITE 64.3K trade (noted in earlier comments in the prior APC) was over 4 times larger than the next largest trade (16K), it seems reasonable to consider what the average trade size is without that trade included – 4,552. Likewise, the effect on buy:sell is also substantial – it moves to 1.76:1 (63.1% “buys”). If I could figure a way to put this in the charts without distorting and corrupting the integrity (maybe adding another line?! Nah! Some charts are hard enough to read already) ... But I do have a long-term plan. Don't know when I'll get to it – probably when I can't track this stuff anymore because the volume gets too high and then it'll be too late to be useful.

     

    Looking at my experimental charts, I notice that the averages for short sales are still showing a general upward trend. Yes, day-to-day is quite choppy and the zig-zags of late are quite clearly tending down with lower low and high percentages oveall. But the “stacking” of the averages still indicates an increasing short sales trend with the daily averages for the 10 higher than the 25 which is higher than the 50 which is higher than the 100. The 10-day has sown some weakness of late but should be ignored for now as the choppiness introduces a lot of “noise” to it. Until the choppiness abates and the 10-day shows a steadier trend I would look more to the 25-day average for confirmation of trends for now.

     

    This suggests that we still have substantial selling by one or more of our big sellers, which we already knew.

     

    One piece of optimism can be derived from the movement of the prices into and above the trend lines. If this holds another day or two I believe that the risk of substantial price movement down almost completely disappears. Why? Because this has happened even while substantial selling pressure has been in play and as the pressure disappears there would be little reason for price to move substantially lower.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Even though they've dropped out of the Form 4 reporting regime I plug in a daily estimate for Quercus that assumes:

     

    1. They try to sell shares representing 10% of daily volume rounded down to the nearest thousand shares, but
    2. They reduce sales when selling the full 10% would push their rolling 90-day total above the 850,000 share limit specified in their Form 144.

     

    Because of the second limiting condition, their sales would have been curtailed on the 19th through 24th. Based on those two assumptions, I'd estimate their current remaining balance at 146,300 shares, which should be absorbed next week. Then they'll be on the sidelines till mid-September.
    29 Jul 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    John, I'm sure glad you're here. No telling how many more bad guesses I'd make without you backstopping me.

     

    I likely would've never thought of that!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah but it's kind of a bummer. I thought they were pretty much done for this cycle.

     

    But maybe all in all not so bad if the added shares decreased BlackRock holdings. John's right, sometimes it feels like it'll never end, but one needs to keep in mind we're sooooo close.
    29 Jul 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    My initial thought was "Before the kids go back to school." Then I got to thinking about Quercus. My estimate for them currently stands at 913,612 and my estimate for Blackrock is about 700,000. Assuming that Quercus plans to hold off on their last 767,312 shares until after mid-September, it looks like the 850,000 shares of short-term supply should be absorbed before the CC.
    30 Jul 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Ford, I suspect in an attempt to justify their use of the AGM in SS, mentioned their reluctance to use the PbC due to the “yet to be proven” mass production of the unit. Could NS be thinking along the same lines and was this 1000 unit order a test to see what production rates could be obtained on the last 100 batteries through the line before they committed to a larger order? I am very interested to hear the numbers from the latest run...

     

    Things will change for us, in a very big way, when the line(s) is up and running continuously...
    29 Jul 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1953) | Send Message
     
    Tim-
    Would you mind providing the Ford reference? I'd love to read it first-hand.

     

    Thank you,

     

    G
    29 Jul 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Qg32wI
    30 Jul 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP, been hit and miss for me lately...
    30 Jul 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Electric cars: How many miles will kill 'range anxiety'?

     

    http://bit.ly/OanxJq
    29 Jul 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11190) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps there's another, less talked about anxiety: comfort anxiety. Commuters know everyday there's a chance for a several hour backup on any given expressway around the country, especially turnpikes, where there are less exits.

     

    I surely wouldn't want to be stuck in creepy crawly traffic on a smoggy, 95 degree day, or a 6 degree day, stuck in snow, and not be able to use my heater or air conditioner, because my battery monitor tells me I'm running low on juice.
    29 Jul 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hard to get people to give up their "just in case" resources. It was a problem in lean manufacturing as well.

     

    http://bit.ly/taLwrY
    30 Jul 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    GE WattStation Vindicated; Nissan Accepts Blame For Leaf Charging Problems

     

    http://bit.ly/Od7rMC

     

    More little bugs.
    29 Jul 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    The solution would be for Leaf owners to buy a residential PC for those power fluctuations and brown outs. If each owner would buy our beloved residential PC, even John would be plugging the EV.

     

    Maybe Tesla will have the same problem, and if one can afford a Tesla, or Fiskar one should invest in a little battery security. Oh the irony!
    30 Jul 2012, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    Metro: I doubt John would endorse - he's too aware of the wastefulness and resource constraints he's written about.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    A MiniCube would certainly solve the power quality problems for Leaf owners and improve their overall efficiency at the same time. While I worry about resource constraints whenever I'm talking about a mass market product, the Leaf will never be in that class so no worries!
    30 Jul 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3026) | Send Message
     
    Actually a residential PowerCube would be extremely wasteful to use for charging a battery. Charging circuitry is supposed to be robust, and batteries can absorb variation in charging power (not voltage, however). If Nissan has implemented a non-robust charging system that cannot cope with typical US electricity quality, "epic fail" seems to be the correct description, although "gross engineering hubris" is a close runner-up.

     

    The ResPC provides exceptionally clean electricity from dirty and non-conforming power for sensitive devices. A multi-kw charger should not be a "sensitive device".
    30 Jul 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, This will probably interest you and perhaps others.

     

    The efficiency metric is not so big because the motors are pretty efficient to begin with. It's the increased operating temperature, lower voltage requirement and power density that are most impressive.

     

    GE Scientists Successfully Test Prototype Electrified Vehicle Traction Motor

     

    http://bit.ly/OaqQAs
    29 Jul 2012, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: looks promising, but with 4 years left on development, I'm sure Parker Hannefin and UQM won't be loitering. Both have some decent motors now, but doesn't have all the attributes of the GE one yet.

     

    UQM also has a DOE contract to develop motors using no RE magnets. With their expertise, I expect they'll come with something competitive.

     

    I note they list peak at 55KW but "... operates continuously at 105ºC over a wide speed range (2,800 - 14,000 rpm at 30 kw) and can be cooled with engine coolant". That's a big plus right there.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yeah. Futures world stuff. But looks like some good possibilities.
    30 Jul 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    India Restores Power to 360 Million People After Grid Collapse

     

    http://bloom.bg/MfsMcw
    30 Jul 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    "Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is seeking to secure $400 billion of investment in the power industry in the next five years ..."

     

    Music to my ears.
    30 Jul 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I bet cheap will beat cool there. And you know they will not be able to afford traditional approaches. Nor would they want to. They have tons of special needs.

     

    And for some odd reason East Penn is building relationships in the area.
    30 Jul 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    I would think a grid upgrade might just be in order ... The stories are sorta' interesting but the photos boggle the mind.

     

    http://bit.ly/OcN1Gn

     

    http://bit.ly/OcN3Oe

     

    http://bit.ly/MWBcll
    30 Jul 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I spent about an hour on the phone with a reporter for one of the large Indian magazines back in June. Their needs are so immense that it's hard to wrap your mind around the challenges and opportunities. I'm supposed to get a copy of the article when it's printed and have just sent the reporter a note asking wazzup.
    30 Jul 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    In the not so distant past India was infamous for not prosecuting power thieves. They seemed to want investment in their power system from other countries but then went Socialist and wouldn't allow the companies to recover costs. I wonder how much things have changed?

     

    Giving power to "poor" people by ignoring theft is a very poor demonstration of governance. Indian "democracy" is shaky, to be kind.
    30 Jul 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    If only Axion had someone with some experience in Indian culture in their marketing department!

     

    D
    30 Jul 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    DRich, my response to your first link is "yikes!" I have been in some very congested situations but I would have to take a chain saw to that one <smile>...
    30 Jul 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Strike II.

     

    Second blackout in India in two days leaves 670 million without power

     

    http://yhoo.it/MPRz73
    31 Jul 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1668) | Send Message
     
    Did India’s Power Generation Industry Just Go into a Death Spiral?
    http://onforb.es/N19Axh
    Speculation that a critical number of India’s coal plants may have together hit the point at which no amount of repair can make them operate reliably again.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    For anyone who has ever called tech support, Colbert had a great riff on India's power outage the other night.

     

    "India has a massive power outage. Hey India, have you tried unplugging the grid and plugging it back in?"
    2 Aug 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    CTRL-ALT-DELETE?
    2 Aug 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I heard the Indian engineers called the US for a solution, which was given, but they couldn't understand what the US engineers were saying! :)
    2 Aug 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    JP: You got it! Their grid is probably a MS design. Recall the old "What If Microsoft Built A Car"?

     

    HardToLove
    2 Aug 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    That would explain it for sure. When the system started overloading they ran around hitting start buttons to shed some load.

     

    I do remember GM's response to Bill Gates when he was cutting on them. It was a good retort.

     

    http://bit.ly/Mf3CVq
    2 Aug 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    "I heard the Indian engineers called the US for a solution, which was given, but they couldn't understand what the US engineers were saying! :) "

     

    Wonder if that was 'cuz the Indian engineers speak English 'nsted of 'merican?
    2 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    How true!

     

    Proper for one of the colonies.
    2 Aug 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    What a surprise! Another 80k shares being dumped by NITE. Another little fire sale.
    30 Jul 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Cheap enough for many...
    30 Jul 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Stunning! At least 70k shares being dumped by NITE right now. What the? They're a couple hrs late today. Messes up my whole schedule, lol.

     

    I think this makes at least 5 days in a row of 80k shares or so dumpage. Why 80k/day? Let's speculate on a slow day. If the seller had 800k shares, then spread over a nice even 10 day number = 80k/day. Or, um, well, I like that idea, so I'll stop there.

     

    So who had 800k shares? Well, the placement agents had/have 801k, but I think they can't start selling until Thursday.

     

    Blackrock had about that much, per JP's guesstimate.

     

    The BK Trustee, well, who knows?

     

    Maybe some other big-ish buyer from the past.

     

    Maybe tomorrow someone should place a 240k share (80k * 3 days left, in my wild speculation scenario) bid at some discount, say, 30 cents, to give an easy way for the seller to finish.

     

    That was kinda fun.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Paper with Axion mention -

     

    Effect of Ball-milling on the Physical and Electrochemical Properties of Lead Dioxide

     

    http://bit.ly/Q5fHBE
    30 Jul 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Another one we didn't get :-(

     

    Princeton Power Systems Power On Energy Storage System at BMW Technology Office

     

    http://bit.ly/T0XxAW

     

    Good for Princeton though. Wonder how long before they go public?

     

    Reminded of claims I read that Facebook didn't really want to go public, but they were forced to, e.g.,

     

    http://cnet.co/OD9BaK
    30 Jul 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3026) | Send Message
     
    Too bad we don't have more bio-carbons in the wild, so engineering companies can play with them for projects like BMW's energy storage. If BMW is actually going to make EVs with direct DC charging, it would be nice to be the supplier to the EV charging station company, instead of a Li battery.
    30 Jul 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Facebook was an odd company because it raised so much money privately and had such an active grey market in its stock. Before their IPO there were weekly auctions on websites like Second Shares where brokers put together special purpose partnerships to buy Facebook stock "privately." The number of record owners didn't exceed the 500 permitted by SEC regulations, but Facebook's beneficial owner count probably ran to five figures. Princeton Power is nowhere near being in a position where it will be forced to do anything.
    30 Jul 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... That is depressing. If ever there was a company that knows about Axion it would be BMW Technology Division.
    30 Jul 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Since all of Axion's work has been with BMW in Munich I don't know that I'd go making assumptions about what they know or don't know in a Mountain View, California office that plans to "demonstrate DC fast charging technology for electric vehicles."
    30 Jul 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    No mention of the source of the Li-ion batteries. ISTM the story is all about the inverter, not the storage, and it seems like maybe Princeton chose the batteries, not BMW...
    30 Jul 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Princeton is officially "battery agnostic."

     

    But surely they're very aware of AXPW.

     

    http://bit.ly/OdOj3E

     

    http://bit.ly/QMIfgi

     

    But if they've come to see themselves as competitors with the PowerCube, perhaps not so much agnostic w.r.t AXPW.

     

    I really wish I understood what happened with the inverter for the PowerCube. Several indications Princeton was the choice with the original Viridity/AXPW announcement, but I can't tell whether it didn't happen on AXPW premises (or any sales since that we've heard of) due to saving money for something not needed yet due to FERC ruling delays, or whether more distressingly there's been some sort of rift that developed. It seems they've gone to Indy Power Systems for their Residential PowerCube design.

     

    Again, I have no facts here ... I wish I did. But the general topic is something I plan to ask about on the conference call, though wording the right way to get any kind of response will be tricky. It's a shame I couldn't go to the annual meeting, because I would definitely have ask something there about our marketing w.r.t. inverter companies and the PowerCube.

     

    And yes, I know the PowerCube was being significantly used in the NSC testing. And I also must say I felt a LITTLE misled when the Viridity/AXPW PRs came out as I thought it was a business that would see SOME sales fairly quickly.
    30 Jul 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    AFIK Rosewater took the lead in choosing the key components for the residential product.
    30 Jul 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    wtb, the PR re-PJM grid connection definitely referenced Prince Power as supplier of the inverter. Something clearly happened between Axion and Princeton Power. The Washington Navy Yard Net Zero energy project energy storage system contract award announced by Axion in early January (with delivery supposedly by March 31) will not include a Princeton Power inverter. According to Scott Sklar of the Stella Group, when delivered (presumably in July) the system will use an Exeltech inverter.

     

    I want an explanation for delay in performance of the Net Zero Energy contract which just may be unwillingness/inability of Princeton Power to timely deliver inverters of sizes other than 100kW.

     

    ISTM, the more system integrators Axion Power works with the better the odds of getting the PbC into the market place.
    30 Jul 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Couldn't agree more on having a number of good system integrator relationships. Axion just doesn't have enough sales horsepower to go it alone unless they are determined to limit sales prospects to a few select plodding elephants.
    30 Jul 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Another inverter company that recently went public.

     

    http://bloom.bg/MOIA61
    30 Jul 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "Princeton is officially "battery agnostic." But surely they're very aware of AXPW."

     

    They are MORE than aware of Axion as their inverters have the PbC as a "battery type" in their configuration. Meaning they have studied the charge and discharge profiles and have programmed software to accommodate it...
    30 Jul 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, Princeton did not announce their DRI-10 until mid July. Could this be why the Stella Group went another direction? Also, I stopped by the Navy yard several months ago and that project, as a whole, was way off schedule...

     

    http://bit.ly/R1FNa3
    30 Jul 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Tariff wars?

     

    Commerce OKs tariffs for wind towers

     

    http://politi.co/NfwIDX

     

    More to come?

     

    Do we fight these instead of IP protection battles?

     

    Is Romney rhetoric on China even remotely a factor?

     

    Probably no simple answers unless at some point you were an AMSC shareholder :-(
    30 Jul 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    They already did solar panels. Of coarse it takes so long for them to react the damage is mostly done.

     

    BTW, It's just an extension of the great tire and chicken wars.
    30 Jul 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    If the usGov and various states would stop the stupid wind power subsidies the tower import question would be moot. I can wish.
    30 Jul 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Batteries International Magazine has just published the first issue of its Guide to the upcoming European Lead Battery Conference in Paris. The editor Mike Halls has given me permission to share the guide with readers. You can download a copy here:

     

    http://bit.ly/OxTEk2
    30 Jul 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11190) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John!

     

    My biggest take from scanning the PDF is that there is one section that talks about how hybrids will need 48V rather than 12V. This explains a lot. For months here in the APCs, we have debated the ifs, and the concerns about how switching from 12v to 48V will affect all things electric in vehicles -- which I believe can number as many as 95 electric sucking gadgets per vehicle.

     

    When I first learned of this I had mixed feelings. On the one side, I was bummed that this takes us up into the $1000 plus/hybrid, if say Ford or BMW were to use the 16V 30HT. The other, and I do recall writing this, is that now we are talking three 30HTs per car.

     

    What's wrong with that?

     

    Another point is that this switch from 12V to 16V MUST be a significant reason why we've yet to hear from either Ford or BMW. I will also be all pins and needles about hearing your input from this conference about how present AGM batteries fail, or become useless after 2 to 8 months.

     

    Best of luck with your presentation. I wish Axion Power had a booth.

     

    Thanks again for linking up this PDF.
    30 Jul 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Enders Dickinson will be presenting on stationary applications this year and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to run into a bigger Axion contingent.
    30 Jul 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    That would be great. Some Axionistas are in Europe, and I'd bet that a lot of lurkers are there, too.

     

    Congrats John on your high visibility in the guide as well as your speaking role. Over 2/3 of a page. Very nice!
    30 Jul 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    Maya: My concern is that 3 batteries will be an untenable position. I suspect that Li-ion, or some other higher energy/power-density would be the choice as the smaller size for equivalent power and energy would be desirable.

     

    Of course, cost *always* is a factor and I may be overly pessimistic if we factor in cost.

     

    Don't know, just thinking ...

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11190) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I'm definitely concerned about cost, too.

     

    Still believe three 30HTs will be far cheaper than lithium, plus being safer, easier to recycle, better charge acceptance, etc.

     

    What I think is most important is how the 48V "need" affects AGM batteries.

     

    As much as I keep learning, I realize there's still so much more to learn. As the parameters of what I knew last year, thinking a single 12V PbC was adequate (plus a starter battery), to now stop/start needing 48V, have dramatically changed.
    30 Jul 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    One thing that was mentioned recently in this form was from someone that went to the most recent AGM. During conversation it was mentioned that the PBC had some limitations on being sized differently. This would be a concern because the power represented by three 30HTs might be more than is required and weight/space in an auto application is ALWAYS at a premium (not ignoring cost of coarse). It was mentioned that this conversation was with Enders Dickinson.

     

    This runs counter to what was relayed to me by K.T. so I didn't fret too much. I can't imagine why this would be the case other than what would currently be offered due to existing capital availability.
    30 Jul 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I don't think SS needs 48V. But going to a slightly more intense hybrid scheme, such as "foot off pedal" coasting slow down recovery, might. Especially if the result is an electrical acceleration boost from zero speed.

     

    I believe the design break occurs when the 12V alternator-generator isn't enough for the mission and another motor/generator needs to be added. A 48V system lowers the peak currents by 3 for a given wattage and so reduces MG mass and wire size. Adding that extra chunk of expensive tech is an increase in the cost of the vehicle and needs to be justified. I have no idea where that economic break actually is.
    30 Jul 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    In thinking about this question of multiple batteries, I I went back and took a look at the white paper. Axion states,

     

    "Simulation testing shows that the Axion PbC® battery can meet the present and future demands of micro-hybrid vehicles with a low-cost, high efficiency two-battery solution that maintains high DCA (i.e., low charge time) for over 100,000 stop-start events (eight years of equivalent vehicle operation)."

     

    Is there a whole other scheme contemplated beyond the one presented in the white paper?
    30 Jul 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    "I believe the design break occurs when the 12V alternator-generator isn't enough for the mission and another motor/generator needs to be added."

     

    IINM, a link to a .pdf file provided in this APC (I'm thinking Stefan posted it) downloaded a paper discussing milling of lead dioxide for use on the positive electrode of lead acid and PbC batteries. The discussion suggested that conventional FLA and AGM batteries can only accept about one third of the output capability of prevailing alternators. I took that comment to mean the alternators/generators produce more amps than the batteries can accept while that would not be a problem with PbCs.

     

    I'm also wondering whether a 16V PbC, paired with appropriate DC-to-DC converters to limit discharge voltages within a narrow range, might be capable of delivering enough energy to handle the larger hotel loads prompting consideration of 48V systems.
    30 Jul 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11190) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, D-Inv, iindelco & SHB: What is great about this forum is how we can all discover and debate together. You guys are way more qualified than I, but what I keep bumping into, the scant amount of intimations I have to work with, is that the S/S solution, for it to work best, is by using 48V, and not 12V.

     

    There seems to be some incrongruity between what the white paper states, and what "seems" to be the way the industry is leaning...toward a 48V configuration.

     

    I'm still not sure a 12V PbC has sufficient power to run the a/c or heater at high power while the windshield wipers also work at full tilt, while the headlights/tail lights are on, while the radio is pumping out tunes, while the..., such that maximum efficiency and fuel savings are obtained. And, the S/S always works flawlessly, not intermittently.

     

    Welcoming all discussion.
    30 Jul 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv & Maya ... There is no reason that a converter can't take a 12Vdc power source to 48Vdc. That might be 1-2-3 batteries. The limiting factor is just how much amperage is available from the battery. I can't answer that because loads vary and I don't remember (if I ever really knew) the storage capacity of a 12Vcd PbC. We do know that the battery could deliver that conversion faster & recover amperage faster than any other chemistry for more cycles (depth of discharge not withstanding). Basically, the battery doesn't have to be 48Vdc.
    30 Jul 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Bear in mind there are two levels of the micro-hybrid; one that is entry level which has the two battery setup operating in 12V mode (with the 16V PbC), and the advanced configuration such as the LC Super Hybrid which started 12V and is being re-engineered to 48V.

     

    I believe the HEV/EV effort (misguided as it may be) is what was needed to push 48V all the way down to the ICE. I cannot guess as to when it will finally happen but the on board electronics will eventually demand it.
    30 Jul 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Maya -

     

    The white paper describes both a 12V and a 16V PbC and describes the 16V two battery system as the ideal solution. Maybe D-inv has the correct view?

     

    "The higher on-charge voltage of the 16V PbC® battery simplifies
    the architecture used to combine it with a smaller lead–acid (AGM or flooded) battery, which will perform the cranking (engine start) function. The circuit diagram shown in Figure 14 illustrates this in simple terms. An inexpensive diode/switch is used to both isolate the lead–acid battery from the electrical system when not required for engine starts and allow in-line charging of both batteries via the
    standard alternator. This two-battery configuration is ideal as it combines both the robust cranking efficiency of the lead–acid battery and the high charge acceptance of the PbC® battery into a low cost MHPS solution."
    30 Jul 2012, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    Maya, :-) could be wrong, but I'm thinking "windshield wipers also work at full tilt, while the headlights/tail lights are on" is likely an unusual and short duration 'hotel load' when the engine is not running. And, I was thinking starter power would be supplied by a small FLA battery with slow self discharge to assure auto starts when the vacation or business flier returns after a month or two elsewhere.

     

    Assuming a PbC stores 0.5 kW and 70% is recoverable without shortening its lifecycle, one could draw ~350W of power for those 'hotel' accessories.
    30 Jul 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, DR.
    30 Jul 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3026) | Send Message
     
    There is no fundamental reason why a single 30HT bio-carbon battery can't be 48 volt if that is the requirement. Instead of six cells, make it with 24 cells. Basically, just a new mold for the casing is necessary, and maybe trimming the carbon anodes to a smaller size. Or perhaps use two 30HT casings, each battery being 24 volts (12 cells).
    30 Jul 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    When you increase the voltage of a system, you'll also decrease the size of each cell in the system. That means a 12-volt system will use standard units in a group 27 size range but a 48 volt system might well use something closer to the cell size you see in motorcycle batteries.

     

    The key takeaway is that a 48-volt system won't cost 4x as much as a 12-volt because you'll make smaller cells.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Again,
    Wish to express my thanks to those who provide technical details. I learn a lot from you.
    Much Obliged,
    metroneanderthal
    31 Jul 2012, 04:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    There will be at least one more edition of the Guide and that one will include an interview with me that Mike thought readers might find interesting. While I've never figured I was interesting enough to write about, Mike apparently disagrees. When that issue comes out, I'll make it available too.
    31 Jul 2012, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    John: transiting auto electrical systems to 48V is the time to get serious about the "bipolar" cell stacking concept. This allows the removal (reduction?) of the cell to cell dividers AND the heavy and expensive "over the top" cell interconnect straps. Assembly is also simplified. I am confident that the kWh/kg would improve significantly in the process.

     

    If only it weren't so costly to do this kind of practical development. I hope it doesn't have to wait years until Axion is profitable.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Bipolar lead acid is a great idea, but very challenging to manufacture and even more challenging to manufacture cheaply. Atraverda has claims and prototypes, but nobody has a proven commercial product.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the bipolar link to Altaverda. I wonder about their TiO or O2 connection plate. They aren't saying much on their site.
    31 Jul 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    In my view their biggest challenge will be the immense capital cost of an entirely different battery architecture and factory design. Our goal with the PbC was to change as little as possible so that it could slide sideways into an existing plant without changing equipment, components, materials and manufacturing methods. For a bipolar device you basically have to develop everything from the ground up.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    RE Altaverda: No argument there.

     

    If they ever get it to work reliably with full automation, Axion should be able to use the same approach, I suspect.

     

    Should be interesting to watch!

     

    Getting a reliable seal around all of those stacked up flat assemblies has got to be a manufacturing problem (nightmare).
    1 Aug 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Atraverda's use of sputtered titanium suboxide is, however, intriguing. It's one of the materials mentioned in the Axion electrode assembly patent that talks about replacing the acid resistant graphene sheeting with either a diamond or titanium suboxide coating. If either idea can be reliably reduced to practice, the benefits in terms of decreased resistance, fewer components and reduced cost could be huge.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the read.

     

    Cute goldfish.

     

    AONEistas are hoping that's what's under the fins they are swimming with. I hope for their case it's true. I'll watch from shore.
    30 Jul 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    ACPW will be profitable for 2012...webcast on now. Lets hope dat AXION will also blast us away with some great numbers and expectations
    30 Jul 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 7/30/2012: EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 35200, Vol 196534, AvTrSz: 4913
    Min. Pr: 0.3221, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3338
    # Buys, Shares: 30 145420, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3347
    # Sells, Shares: 10 51114, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3311
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.85:1(74% “buy”), DlyShts 86700 (44.1%)

     

    Averages for volume, price, and trade size all trending down. Buy:sell may be flattening or just taking a pause before moving a bit lower. The daily short sales seems, on average, to be moving to flatten out around 28% (the 50-day average). However the 10-day average is still uncertain and higher ATM, running around 32%-33%. A noticeable sustained drop in that average should be a strong clue that the big selling is abated. Right now it looks to be headed that way.

     

    Nothing notable on the traditional TA front as it’s suggesting some sideways trading for a bit. No oscillators are at extremes.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jul 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    How Paint Dries, from "Ask a Scientist."

     

    There are two basic mechanisms by which paints dry on the wall.

     

    Many modern paints are largely water-based. As we know, water readily evaporates. However, the rate of evaporation of a liquid depends on the vapour pressure of that liquid above the surface. In a sealed tin of paint, a set vapour pressure is quickly established in the small headspace in the tin and the water in the paint does not evaporate and remains in the paint. But, when painted on the wall, the water can readily evaporate to leave a dried film of solid paint components behind – there is no build-up of water vapour pressure in a confined space as there is in the tin.

     

    Other paints, especially those manufactured some time ago, are by contrast largely oil-based. Unlike water, the oil does not evaporate. These paints dry on the wall in a very different way, through a chemical reaction with the oxygen in the air. This causes the relatively small molecules in the oil to form much larger molecules which have a solid rather than liquid form (i.e. polymers are formed). In the sealed tin, oxygen is not available for this chemical reaction to occur, and the oil remains in its original, fluid (smaller molecule) form.

     

    These two distinct mechanisms account for the contrasting behaviour of paints in a sealed tin and on a wall.

     

    http://bit.ly/Qfub1l
    31 Jul 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    :-)
    31 Jul 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    On the bright side, at least the price of the one trade is going the right way. If this upward trend continues in another 13 days will be up 1 cent. Meteoric would probably not be the proper adjective to use in this case.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Here in the south we call it "watching grass grow".

     

    Now, for some of us (who lack grass, I hate mowing lawns, I work diligently to kill off any grass that manages to sprout), that might have to be modifed to "watching the neighbor's grass grow".

     

    Still, the principal is sound. I remember an experiment I did in high school, during which I determined that the grass in our lawn grew almost precisely 2 inches per month. I sought to use this evidence to convince my mother that weekly trimmings of the verge were not needed (and since I was the trimmer, it was a subject near and dear to my heart)... She dismissed this concept with prejudice, and for the rest of my teen years I was doomed to push around a lawn mower trimming .5 inches at a time from the hated grass...

     

    Gee, maybe that's why I don't have a lawn?

     

    Anyway, I anticipate that Axion will eventually speed up its progress, shifting from "PD" (paint drying) gear to "GG" (grass growing) gear.

     

    Now, just to really excite the axionista faithful with dreams of fantasy, here in the south we also have what's called "watching kudzu grow"...

     

    Should Axion come to resemble the habits of that voracious plant, we will all be very happy indeed.
    31 Jul 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Paint, I can watch.

     

    Grass, I can watch.

     

    Kudzu would be grand.

     

    Just so long as it doesn't turn into "watching poison ivy grow."
    31 Jul 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I knew an Alabama chemist in the early 80s who was the first guy to tell me that ethanol was the dumbest motor fuel idea ever conceived. His one qualifier was "If they could ever figure out how to make ethanol from kudzu, it would be a brave new world.
    31 Jul 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Better living through chemistry. If understood and appropriately applied.

     

    http://bit.ly/Qgi1VT
    31 Jul 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh the life of an Axionista. Waiting for the path to riches.

     

    Who's the one with the TFH? :)

     

    http://bit.ly/QawR0C
    31 Jul 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    We've had a lot of rain in NC lately. If Axion's share value grew as quickly as my grass has the last two weeks I'd be set for retirement by now!
    31 Jul 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    How China Will Impact the Grid-Scale Energy Storage Market

     

    http://bit.ly/OzJNu5
    31 Jul 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    This was due last Friday. It will be interesting to me to find out who they pick. I expect them to continue to snub LABs.

     

    "Press Release USABC ISSUES 2 RFPIs: FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED LI-ION ELECTROLYTES, AND BATTERIES FOR 12V START-STOP"

     

    http://bit.ly/NGLhGs
    31 Jul 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Given their weight limit specification I get the feeling somebody at USABC is trying to stack the deck for lithium, but guess time will tell.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    But when you look at all the targets the field is really open. The question is, Will they still go forward with blinders on humming the lithium ion someday song? I suspect they will but we'll know soon enough.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Until we crash and burn the idea emanating from government (I call it the "Ah-Chu Effect") that batteries will start obeying Moore's Law instead of Murphy's, its going to be painful
    31 Jul 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    "The two RFPIs, for consideration of contracts that will include a 50 percent minimum cost share by developers, are for: development of advanced high-performance electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries used in vehicle applications; and development of advanced high-performance batteries for 12-volt start-stop vehicle applications."

     

    The fact that the developer has to shoulder 50% of the cost probably also knocks Axion out of contention. At least it did for getting half of the DOE's grant money for the grant with Exide.
    31 Jul 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Why does the government think that weight is an issue that needs to be reduced from lead-acid for effective start-stop batteries?

     

    Did BMW and Ford stand up at some conference we never heard of and say to all the battery-makers "You need to find a way to make your batteries lighter! Our main problem is that your batteries are too heavy for start-stop!"

     

    No!

     

    They stood up and said 'your dynamic charge acceptance is for sh** in start-stop and you need to increase your DCA and cycle life'.

     

    Why do these pencil-pushing bureaucrats never listen?

     

    D
    31 Jul 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie: "Why do these pencil-pushing bureaucrats never listen?
    "

     

    My guess is they're pushing the pencil-eraser end into their ears! So they can only hear those quite close to them, such as Chu, and outfits well-connected like Solyndra was.

     

    Typical, typical.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jul 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Government logic:

     

    1. Throw billions (blood, sweat, tears) taken from taxpayers at the threat of force to favored cronies and chosen technologies (proven trackrecords strictly optional).

     

    2. Manipulate government programs to support earlier decisions.

     

    3. Outright DISTORT current programs to support earlier decisions after the fertilizer hits the rapidly rotating air foil when those cronies and chosen gambles start to dissolve.

     

    Repeat as necessary, until new leadership drags you kicking and screaming from behind your power desk.

     

    When it comes to these pre-ordained gotcha's from government, there are few mysteries if one just assumes the lowest common denominator of malinvestment is at work.
    31 Jul 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't go so far as to disregard mass and volume in auto applications. It is very important. But so is cost. The question is, How do they weigh the various metrics of the offerings? It's probably different based on the numerous platform and market needs.
    31 Jul 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    Question re-auto batteries. Anyone know who Ford buys batteries from? Chrysler? GM?
    31 Jul 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I expect the relationships not to be exclusive.

     

    I do know that in NA GM and Chrysler are heavily weighted toward JCI.

     

    Not sure on Ford but this might indicate a relationship.

     

    http://bit.ly/QXeTvB
    31 Jul 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    FYI, Ford has a sole supply relationship with JCI (i believe it is global). Some Ford people don't understand why they've got this, but that's where it stands (well, it was accurate as of last year).
    31 Jul 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    festein, Thanks. Interesting they have a single source agreement. JCI must have signed up to some nice terms based on Fords needs.
    31 Jul 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4710) | Send Message
     
    "this might indicate a relationship.

     

    http://bit.ly/QXeTvB"

     

    Yes indeed. And, such a relationship might have a bearing on Ford's perspective as reported in http://bit.ly/Qg32wI
    31 Jul 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Calling it Auto Start Stop is just a dumb Auto Start Stop idea. Follows in the footsteps of the misnamed Mitsubishi Pajero, and the Opel Ascona.
    31 Jul 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I just noticed this article at the bottom of the Ford article -

     

    Heide Budde-Meiwes, Dominik Schulte, Julia Kowal, Dirk Uwe Sauer, Ralf Hecke, Eckhard Karden (2012) Dynamic charge acceptance of lead–acid batteries: Comparison of methods for conditioning and testing, Journal of Power Sources, Volume 207, Pages 30-36 doi: 10.1016/j.jpowsour.201...

     

    http://bit.ly/OkHxqa

     

    Has anyone read this or have access?
    31 Jul 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    2 Key messages from this article;
    1. The DCA test devised by Axion/BMW over-represents the DCA capability of LAB's. They find that in the field LAB's (both AGM and EFB's) deliver around 0.1A/Ah after the run-in period, whereas the Axion test shows around 0.25A/Ah. (The Axion Test charges at 1A/Ah)
    2. A lot can be done to improve the short term performance of LAB's, by discharging rapidly before the charging event. They have found LAB's can deliver 1.5A/Ah DCA with this approach.
    31 Jul 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Deepdyve claims a "free trial".

     

    http://bit.ly/NjH9GD
    31 Jul 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Festein -

     

    I read the article and concluded the same as you with respect to the first issue. (I believe this was noted in the Axion white paper)

     

    w/r/t the second issue, I need to read it again to make any conclusions - i.e. how short the short term performance?

     

    Otherwise, did you draw any negative conclusion with respect to Axion?
    31 Jul 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    Let me check when I get to the office tomorrow. I might have access there. If I do I'll download the pdf and put it up.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    No, nothing bad for Axion in this. My take is that with the Gen2 micro hybrids, OEM are desperate for enhanced DCA - it looks like the option they are being forced to consider is a standard SLI (for Cold Cranking) in tandem with Li-ion (for regen braking DCA) - which will also provide the necessary redundancy for S/S on the move - the problem that Axion has with cold cranking will therefore be mitigated at that point (the second battery enabling the higher S/S functionality that is desired).

     

    Looks to me as though the opportunity is driving firmly towards Axion - the risk now looks to be pricing vs Li-ion - some very low prices being talked about out there - A123 at $250 for a S/S battery, for instance.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I did a quick skim of this article.

     

    Actually I found nothing new. These tests confirm that neither carbon enhanced flooded battery nor AGM could meet OEMs' 100A DCA (or 2-3A/ah) expectations. After a few weeks, the best they can get is about 0.5A/Ah except one 0.7A/ah heated constantly at 50 Celsius as high temperature helps dissolve sulfate crystals.

     

    I will peruse it later.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Problem with lithium ion is that it needs thermal conditioning at the extremes. I've seen numbers of about -25 degrees C for lithium iron phosphate. There are some chemistries that go down to -35 degrees C based on my limited reading.

     

    On the high side, Well we'll wait for Nissan to give us an update.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I think if you double check the A123 press, it was a $250 premium for their starter battery and even that seems questionable in light of the fact that their two product specifications are 0.7 kWh and 1 kWh, they've never shipped a product for under $1,000 per kWh and they've lost money on every battery that left the plant.

     

    http://bit.ly/LwOGn9
    1 Aug 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... No ... No. You can quote (liberally) under fair use or PM it (an iffy solution) but "put it up", I would think, is a copy write infringement without express consent of the author. Sometimes referred to as pirating (popular attitude; If it's possible, it's legal) ... anyway, I'd bet that SA would frown upon such things on their site.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    OK, let me put it this way then. I was able to get into my work account via remote access. I have legal access to the article at work and have downloaded the pdf. If anyone would like to read my legally gained copy, they should message me with their email. How's that for not getting SA knickers in a bind?
    31 Jul 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... Thanks. Much more better. I didn't mean to harp but ... well, I just like to keep it above board. I love having information & data, but it's hard enough for authors, artists & other individual content providers to protect their wares and make money these days. Maybe I'm just too old fashion.

     

    I apologize if I came off as harsh.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys. I used iindelco's free trial membership post to get it, but I can't download it.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Integrity is an honorable principle to uphold for "our club"
    I don't think it's "old fashion", shouldn't ever go out of style ....
    (now, if we could just bottle it & force feed the trolls ...)
    31 Jul 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Festein states from the report -

     

    "They find that in the field LAB's (both AGM and EFB's) deliver around 0.1A/Ah after the run-in period,"

     

    However, the report also states:
    "From an OEM practical perspective DCA should remain robustly above 0.5-1.5 a/ah for the battery service life. Depending on application requirements, targets up to 3 a/ah may be justified, e.g. for maximum utilization of regenerative breaking with a 180A alternator and a 60Ah battery. Obviously, alternative storage devices at significant on-cost can meet such targets with much better consistency than conventional lead-acid batteries. Aim of the work is to meet a similar performance with advanced lead-acid batteries."

     

    It appears they are making every effort try to make carbon additives good enough.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    By the end of September, I'll have access to a tremendous amount of very current information on DCA and how other types of batteries are performing, and perhaps improving. You can rest assured that I'll share what I can.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Don't be silly. You were fine. And it's not like the journal didn't get paid for my copy. My institution pays a fortune for the access it has for all these journals. Plus the journals save a ton of money now, since many aren't printed anymore, but are just done as e-journals. And don't forget that the writers of an article don't get a dime for it. They just get the credit for writing it, which can be used to justify more funding from other sources, but they don't get anything from the journal.
    Take care.
    1 Aug 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Hope we are not in the same boat come ELBC 14.
    1 Aug 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Here, haven't fully digested it yet but since we're looking for kinks in the carbon electrodes armor.

     

    Lead–Carbon Electrode with Inhibitor of Sulfation for Lead-Acid Batteries Operating in the HRPSoC Duty

     

    http://bit.ly/R1veQ3

     

    And Stefan is right in my opinion. The LAB producers would like nothing better than to have some chemistry make the PBC and Ultrabattery less favorable. Only makes sense.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    iindelco - from the article you just posted -

     

    "The experimental results of this study suggest that, to make a lead-acid battery suitable for high-rate partial-state-of-charge cycling applications, it is necessary to use a new additive which, added to the negative paste or to the electrolyte, will improve the solubility of PbSO4 crystals and hence accelerate their reduction to Pb on the negative plates."
    1 Aug 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stephan, All kinds of effort going on to speed up the chemical reaction. Especially at reversal.

     

    The LAB industry just hates the thought of the concentrated ownership of the Ultrabattery and PBC. So do the users who love high volume commodities they can get from anyone anywhere.

     

    I don't think the LAB suppliers are in love with the longer life either. They like just good enough. Volume addicted.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    We need a component buyer to fall in love with Axion (other than us share buyers) ...
    1 Aug 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    In automotive Axion needs a partner. I'm starting to think the big boys will not support it as it upsets their business model. Some medium sized player, like East Penn and the Ultrabattery, is going to have to want to upset the apple cart. Maybe in the end Axion is going to have to figure out how to launch in a market outside the US or Europe because they would surely appreciate the value equation.

     

    Companies in the major markets are sheep following the same path. Just keep your nose close enough to the leaders butt to make sure they don't run away with something. If anything I can at least respect TSLA for that. Of coarse it's easier to do with someone else's money.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    I thought that Axion has thought for a long time that the battery big boys will not (willingly) support the PbC, which is why Axion is mostly pursuing a "pull" demand approach instead.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I've always believed the impetus for partnership arrangements would come from the customer level, rather than a battery manufacturer's desire to sell a better product. Once the snowball starts rolling, I'd expect a rush among major players that don't want to get shut out. The same dynamic appears likely in automotive. Everybody will try to do without until somebody bites the bullet and pays up for performance. Once there's a lead dog, the pack will follow.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, You are correct. JP has stated that for some time and is again reminding me. That doesn't mean the large battery players need to support it.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    That chaotic dynamic is why I think it's best to determine your fair price for AXPW, then get in and wait. Impossible to time such a dynamic, IMO. While seat belts may seem like a waste for a long time, when the big one hits you're sure glad you have it on.
    1 Aug 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, There better eventually be a good ROI case for a big-enough battery manufacturer(s) somewhere or we're all in a world of hurt.
    1 Aug 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I think some of the battery manufacturers supplying the electronics industry are doing pretty well. Of coarse the margins are far higher in the segment. For the lithium guys it's a nice platform to build from. Well, the ones that have access. That's why most of the US firms will not make it. We don't do much manufacturing in electronics anymore. No base to build from and as we have seen, leap frogging is hard. The Chinese are learning that in automotive but they have the borrowing thing to help, a base to build from and a supportive government.

     

    The US has far too many lawyers for government officials. Most lawyers don't create much but they are great for redistribution. As long as there is something to redistribute.
    1 Aug 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, I was talking about the PbC and AXPW only. Sorry for any confusion.
    1 Aug 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Sorry, I was obviously confused.
    1 Aug 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Fun Axionista statistic.

     

    On July 30th I put up a link for the First Edition of the Batteries International ELBC Guide using a link from Bitly that lets me track the number of downloads.

     

    http://bit.ly/OxTEk2

     

    As of this morning the Guide has been downloaded 92 times by readers from 15 countries. I don't know about anybody else, but I think 92 downloads from a single link buried in the middle of this concentrator is a pretty impressive number. It tells me we have a lot of people who read without participating.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I believe there are at least 16 countries as the Great F**Kingfirewall of China blocks all direct routes to dropbox.
    1 Aug 2012, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    And 15 or 16 countries says interest is very widespread. All the better.
    1 Aug 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    This is an interesting site for an overview on different battery types. I haven't spent much time looking it over.

     

    I came upon it from a Google search for "titanium suboxide", which is the key material to the Atraverda bipolar VRLA design.

     

    http://bit.ly/MiiwjQ
    1 Aug 2012, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    A better description of the internals of the Atraverda bipolar lead acid battery.

     

    http://bit.ly/LGwT0m
    1 Aug 2012, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 7/31/2012 EOD stuff
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 350, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 119399, AvTrSz: 4975
    Min. Pr: 0.3330, Max Pr: 0.3399, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3344
    # Buys, Shares: 15 56099, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3358
    # Sells, Shares: 9 63300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3332,
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.13 (47.0% “buys”), DlyShts 26781 (22.4%)

     

    On my experimental charts, it appears consolidation is going on, and has been for about a week I guess, as daily short sales looks to be trending towards the 50 day average of ~28% while price compression continues. Supporting this, volume continues to fall and average trade size continues to shrink, with the 10, 25, 50 and 100 day averages now sitting at 6908, 6759, 6015, and 5389 respectively. Today's size and these averages are reminiscent of what it used to be before the latest round of “Get out of Dodge” sellers appeared.

     

    If you look at my experimental charts you'll also see the buy:sell ratio and averages have begun to become more balanced.

     

    Based on those things I think the increased buying pressure, begun with my “stealth rally”, that allowed the sellers to do their dirty deeds without driving price through the floor is ending.

     

    I anticipate another spell of somewhat flat action until the quarterly report is out. Any large sellers left will be , sans marks-maker assistance (which has been in play this last week IMO), will have to take what they can get. Most retail buyers at this time are likely “full up” and some may be biased towards unloading their shares if we see that movement towards $0.30 is likely again.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Looks like we're just waiting for Mr. 70 or 80 k to make his move.

     

    http://bit.ly/R8lh7Q
    1 Aug 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Ah, the ol' NS-71. Yesterday, the seller was a couple hrs late. Threw off the whole darn toot'n train schedule.

     

    At least we have 60k shares or more bid in the low 33's.

     

    HTL's small daily short figure from yesterday says the seller is prob not BR (aka, Mr Coal).
    1 Aug 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    OT, bummer--sold my TSLA puts the other day. At least I bought AXPW w/ the proceeds.
    1 Aug 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I.m planning on getting long puts if it breaks ~$26 and has confirming volume. Then s/b clear sailing to $23/$22.64. I;m waiting because it did bounce off ~$27 previously and the faithful can arise from the (near-) dead at any time.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    The pricing can be really bad, though, e.g., the Sep 22 $30 puts are $4.40 x $5.40. Huh?! Edit: just changed to 4.90 x 5.30. Still...

     

    And I'm not much of an options guys at all, so I'm prob most likely to be easy $ for someone else. But every now and then it's a good way for me to leverage a big move, like the in-progress collapse of TSLA.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    MrI: With the volatility you might want to consider shorter-term (Aug) dates and go for something like a $27 strike, with a -.506 delta. $160x$1.75 ATM. Since delta increases as price drops, and $1+ swings in one day aren't unusual, you should be able to make some decent change if it moves quickly towards the targets I mentioned, defeating time decay.

     

    That's what I'm seriously considering right now.

     

    If you want a little more time, that same strike for Sept. is $2.80x$3.10 ATM.

     

    An intra-day retrace to the first Fibonacci just got hit and a re-trace to the mean w/b ~$27.01. If you don't want to wait for the $26(.03) to get broken, that'll make the prices cheaper.

     

    I'm seriously considering that option as well.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    While I have confidence that the stk price will decline a lot, I have no confidence over the exact timing. So for now, I'm on the sidelines. May just occasionally put some rallies.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Interesting link on ZBB's China JV -

     

    http://bit.ly/Nb0fjd
    1 Aug 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (497) | Send Message
     
    The presentation does not include the second factory owned entirely by AnHui with an allow labeled "IP". I was looking at getting some ZBB, but this arrangement made me add to Axion as a safer bet.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    JohnM, would you mind posting a link to that info. Thanks.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2648) | Send Message
     
    I notice Meineng projects exponential growth with $100 million sales in 2016 :-) Good thing projections are so cheap!
    1 Aug 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    JohnM - I have read a lot about ZBB and have never seen your alleged assertion before. In fact, here is an article describing the relationship -

     

    http://bit.ly/Nnf0i2

     

    Could you please provide me with some additional information for your assertion?
    2 Aug 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (497) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, it was not meant literally. I read occasionally of Chinese partners setting up a competing factory. Or worse, as happened with American Superconductor:
    http://onforb.es/OE68b8
    26 Aug 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Point is well taken. There are a number of executives from AMSC that are now at ZBB. Hopefully, they learned something.
    27 Aug 2012, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    More Princeton. And I think not us

     

    7/30 Forbes: "Solar-Powered Microgrid Slashes Alcatraz Island's Dependence On Fossil Fuels"

     

    http://onforb.es/Mz0gxQ

     

    Referenced, and includes pics of the batteries used:
    http://1.usa.gov/Mz0gxT

     

    Referenced (Pike Research Blog)

     

    include figure of the "Topology of the 350 Kilowatt Alcatraz Remote Microgrid"

     

    http://bit.ly/ODOAya

     

    "Beyond the Alcatraz project, Princeton Power Systems has three other microgrids up and running in San Diego, Texas and Missouri"
    1 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Would have been far more environmentally friendly to get a dozer and push it into the bay. Or move the capital there. But hey, That's just MHO.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    The picture in the second link has a "Deka Unigy II" label near the front of the left hand bank. In other words, it's an East Penn project using VRLA batteries. If it were an Ultrabattery project it would have been done under the Ecoult label.
    1 Aug 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Not exactly a new technology. And I don't think space was a concern.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nb74Bb
    1 Aug 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1668) | Send Message
     
    Thanks WTB and all, I love the story!

     

    Am I right to assume that bio-carbon batteries used in place of the VRLA batteries here would, over time, lower the cost of electricity produced still further?
    1 Aug 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Plese help me get my expectations "aligned."

     

    Should we even have been a serious candidate for this installation?

     

    DCA not a big issue like Locomotives, Start-Stop, Septa, maybe trucks?

     

    Given the price differential, would pairing a clever BMS with buying more than you absolutely need of the cheaper variety be a better decision? Seems I read something fairly recently about a battery that had "extra?" cells and a system to rotate their usage in ways that extended the life of the battery.

     

    Flow batteries cheaper here?

     

    GE-Durathon(Zebra) cheaper here? (if they had been ready in time)

     

    If any of these potentials are better, does the Residential MiniCube have a bigger sales challenge than some of us might imagine, other than possible early mover advantage?
    1 Aug 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    With 307 kW of solar, 2 MWh of storage works out to about 7 hours of capacity, or more than a good day's power output. Without knowing more than those two figures, it seem like a safe bet that they're using the batteries for long-term storage rather than short term power conditioning. If you want lots of energy to carry you through foggy days without firing up the diesel generators, lead-acid may be a good choice. Using batteries for long-term storage is a challenge unless your alternative is diesel fuel. Then it always works.

     

    As I understand the target market, the residential and small commercial product is directed at users with extreme power quality needs for sensitive electronics and those who are willing to pay a premium price to be greenly off the grid. It's the same market, if not the same customers, Pic and his associates sold to during the AVAD days. Unless they discarded their rolodexes, I'd bet they have a pretty good idea of how and where they're going to start. It's still a marketing challenge, but a well oiled one.
    1 Aug 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Our favorite MM gets honorable mention.

     

    Latest Market Glitch Shows 'Trading Out of Control'

     

    "Authorities involved in reviewing the matter said Knight Capital, a trading outfit that employs algorithms used in high-frequency trading, said it experienced "technology issues" with its market-making procedures."

     

    http://yhoo.it/Nbafci
    1 Aug 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sounds cheap......and says little.

     

    The future belongs to lithium ion batteries?

     

    http://bit.ly/OJJ3oe
    1 Aug 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    Which is why Ener1, Valence and A123 are thriving, Altair was able to bring in a Chinese majority owner on attractive terms and JCI sued SAFT for divorce because of irreconcilable differences.
    1 Aug 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    That gave me http: // www. ciol. com/ News/ News-Reports/ The- future- belongs- to- lithium- ion- batteries/ 164744/0

     

    (I inserted spaces to keep readable) and

     

    "The system cannot find the path specified. "

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: SA still chopped part of it!

     

    4 edits to get it to stick
    1 Aug 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30619) | Send Message
     
    I used their website search to find the article. It's a little light for this crowd.
    1 Aug 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sorry HTL. I went to find and verify a link and I can't even attach to the site. Maybe a server problem? Not that the link was any good. I'll have to start trying links before I exit the edit period so as not to frustrate interested parties.
    1 Aug 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19253) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I don't think verifying is worth it. It's seldom an issue and there's lots of "dumb hands" like me that can detect the problem while your time is better used for the things that interest you and benefit us all.

     

    And, it sort of fits with the new software development paradigm too - throw it out there and let the users find the bugs! :-))

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    OK HTL. I just know that it can be frustrating to see a title knowing there might be some meat to chew on and not being able to get the package open. But I guess you're right. More times than not someone such as yourself corrects the problem in pretty short order.

     

    Relative to debug in the field. I got burned very badly by a company by the name of Ingersol Rand. I liked some of their new screw drivers with torque angle control so I gave them a try on a VERY important program because I had a long relationship with them and the local distributor. For about 6 month after putting them on a Chrysler program I was working non stop 2 shifts a day trying to keep these pieces of s--t running. The mechanics even put wing nits on the mounting plates for the electronic package. In the end I took them off the line and tossed them in the trash. They embarrassed the heck out of me to the tune of about 100k USD. Not huge but I took it very personally because I never had such an ugly event over my prior 25 years. I paid for it dearly in multi-time/day b#ll busting and I deserved it. :(

     

    Oh, and to top it off it was windows driven. Ugh.
    1 Aug 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3216) | Send Message
     
    Hi APH,

     

    Is it time for another Concentrator? My PC's starting to get bogged down/loading slowly. Thanks!
    1 Aug 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (522) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, my dear sir, would you like that shaken or stirred?

     

    Onward and....upward?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Aug 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
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