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  • Axion Power Concentrator 133: Aug. 1, 2012 216 comments
    Aug 1, 2012 5:06 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Updated July 25th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    The last 10 days have been very strong from a volume perspective so instead of sharing a single chart that combines price and volume data, I've attached copies of the more detailed price and volume charts I refer to on a regular basis. The timescales aren't a perfect overlay, but they're very close and I think it's useful to see how price activity and volume have correlated in the past.

    Over the last two years we've had a sequence of unfortunate events where big holders who *should* have been stable became persistent sellers. The list of significant stockholders and groups that emerged on the scene as persistent sellers is lengthy and includes:

    2010 sellers: FURSA; Liquidation Trust; and Small 2009 investors.

    2011-2012 sellers: Winner Estate; The Quercus Trust; Special Situations; Blackrock; and maybe Manatuck Hill

    Most of those sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. As near as I can tell, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around. I find the current volume spike particularly encouraging because it seems to be a final blow out of the last shares remaining in weak hands. Given the number of shares that have already traded this month I think there's a good chance that our persistent sellers will be out of stock before the mid-August conference call.

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close July 27th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated July 28th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concnetrator Comments:

    (updated July 28th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (216)
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  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    someone else should really make the first comment
    1 Aug 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Jon: LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    These are the times that try men's souls... the natives are growing restless, Columbus' crew is starting to grumble... It's been too2 quiet... Oh Bartelby, the latency, the latency!
    1 Aug 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Have we reached 25,000 comments yet?

     

    I need to start commenting more, because I think we will be around 40,000 comments when we get back up to a $1.00 per share ;-)
    1 Aug 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Yes, of course, everyone knows that... but what will be the share price on the day the world ends?
    1 Aug 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    We should come up with an APC comment/PbC sold ratio. Right now we're probably about 200:1.
    1 Aug 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Jon: Infant-induced sleep deprivation? On the day the world ends, any price desired. The Q is who's selling and who's buying and where's the next "greater fool" come from?

     

    Any estimate of volume? Will it confirm price?

     

    At least we'll be rid of the HFT, Quants, Fed, ... and will have a "natural" market free of excessive regulation.

     

    And since the universe is found to be constantly expanding, there's no limit to how much we might profit ... unless the Higgs Bosun throws a wrench into the works.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    Jon, is that in August or later in the year? ;-)
    1 Aug 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    No. No more comments. People like you make it impossible to catch up after even the shortest of vacations!
    1 Aug 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The comment count according to my unofficial tally presently stands at 24,934, so we should hit 25,000 by the end of the day. I'll bet you dessert to go with that rack of lamb that the $1 point is closer to 30,000 than 40,000, but that would also be a sucker's bet for you.
    1 Aug 2012, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Deal or no deal?

     

    No deal!

     

    25,000 comments in a tad over a year is insane enough.

     

    And after reading all the comments, almost all of the APC links, the craziest part is that I'm still "dolt-ish" about battery technology.

     

    This whole sector is a leaning tower of confounded ingnorance.
    2 Aug 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    After four years of blogging on the sector I'd be inclined to characterize the ignorance of many as "grimly determined."
    2 Aug 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Grimly determined, or vastly befuddled, especially all the EVangelicas who lost gargantuan sums of $, who worshiped and forsaw bright futures for all those Uncle Sammy or Chinese subsidized lithium battery companies now bankrupt, or going bankrupt?

     

    CBAK at 35 cents?
    2 Aug 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm not as shocked by CBAK at $.35 as I am by HEV & VLNC bankrupt and A123 on the razor's edge. Those four companies represent about $3.4 billion in market cap evaporation since September 30, 2009.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm also shocked by the $820 million of market cap Tesla has lost since June 24th when I picked it as a Q3 loser, but it's been a long time coming and the bleeding isn't over yet.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Yep. And this morning on the intra-day it broke below $26 with decent volume. Already hit the one-day typical spread of $1 and looks weak.

     

    I entered a small starter position when it broke and if it re-traces (reverts to mean so far) back to around $26.3x intra-day, I'll complete the position at a lower cost.

     

    A pause can be expected around $25.50 on the way down. Should be brief and then ~$23 ($22.93 and maybe a bit of overshoot) should be clear sailing.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Aug 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think the word of the day is frangible.
    2 Aug 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    "... all the EVangelicas who lost gargantuan sums of $, who worshiped and forsaw bright futures for all those Uncle Sammy or Chinese subsidized lithium battery companies now bankrupt, or going bankrupt?"

     

    :-) Just thank them for wiping out several of those $ helicopter Ben tossed out there.
    2 Aug 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Those gifts weren't from BB those were from our good friend Dr. Chu at the DOE. BB puts it where it belongs...in a bank, and there it sits as far as we know.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Is a bruised knight capital going to impinge our calculations in any manner?
    1 Aug 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, I suspect we are a neutrino on their balance sheet. Would have been nice if they tried to buy 10 million shares at the market though! 8-P

     

    As for the calculations. Based on the volume today I don't think we were part of the suspect algorithm.

     

    Thinking of HTL's on line debug comments though. OH BOY. That could be one heck of an expensive debug.
    1 Aug 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Never Again a Flat Battery: Early Warning System for Vehicle Batteries Developed

     

    A snippet from the article:

     

    A new battery management system frequently checks the age, state of charge and operational reliability of the battery. The new battery management system for lead-acid accumulators is intended to prevent drivers from a total breakdown. The car driver is informed via the on-board computer that a change of battery or a new vehicle battery is imminent. Compared to previous battery management systems, no subsequent reprogramming is required in the garage.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ralcfo
    1 Aug 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Not much meat but maybe a tidbit for someone here. No disrespect to SAE.

     

    Comparing uninterruptible power supply topologies.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nc0mee
    2 Aug 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The filing deadline for Q2 is Tuesday, August 14th. If Axion stays true to form, they'll release results after the close on Monday the 13th.

     

    After a very upbeat year-end call, many were upset over a relatively weak Q1 that came in at 70% over Q1-2011, but down $1.1 million from Q4-2011.

     

    As near as I can tell, most of us have a restrained outlook for Q2. Given the level of manufacturing activity the guys who attended the annual meeting reported, I'm wondering whether we may have our sights set too low.

     

    My questions for the day are:

     

    1. Do we have anything approaching consensus expectations for Q2 flooded revenue and PbC and other revenue?

     

    2. What would it take to surprise?
    2 Aug 2012, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I would like to see 3M-5M in revenue, 3 would be satisfactory and 4-5M would be a surprise.

     

    Clear signs progress is underway with other railroads approaching/testing/wo... with them.

     

    Either PowerCube contracts to be announced in Q3, or a clear guidance to that end. (I expected several Cube sales by this time of the year)

     

    Evidence of fleet testing with automakers.

     

    I think I would be satisfied and encouraged by clear quantifiable progress in those areas.
    2 Aug 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    evidence of fleet testing with automakers would be super positive imo.

     

    i want Norfolk to live up to its commitments. i want no delays on AXPW meeting manufacture obligations.

     

    the quantifiable progress stuff is unlikely, but i'd love to see management again articulate its potential markets for investors. i want to hear them give me the reasons they belong in energy grids/ stop start applications. Shareholder meeting suggests consumers/ investors need educating about the product. how management approaches this will be interesting.

     

    it is unlikely anything Q2 related is going to get me out of shares.

     

    dream report = new railroad company buying.
    2 Aug 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    "My questions for the day are:"

     

    1st, would you care to offer an opinion as to whether "Monday the 13th" is a beat of "Friday the 13th"?
    2 Aug 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I believe Tom was speaking honestly, albeit a little too frankly, during the year end conference call. I won't go out on a limb and pick a number, but I do expect that we'll all be smiling.
    2 Aug 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    That is encouraging b/c I thought maybe I was dreaming too big.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 8/1/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 49200, Vol 180429, AvTrSz: 6444
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3398, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3310
    # Buys, Shares: 8 16190, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3355
    # Sells, Shares: 20 164239, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3306
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:10.14 (9% “buys”), DlyShts 3900 (2.16%)

     

    Volume and daily short sales continue downward, suggesting that Blackrock and Quercus weren’t in today.

     

    Both the high and the low price are creeping down while VWAP is creeping a little faster, likely due to the average trade size generally trending down.

     

    The buy percentage has weakened to the point that the ten and 25-day averages are about to cross below the 50-day average. This is the second lowest since I’ve been tracking this stuff. The lowest was 6% on 4/10. I hate to say it, but it seems to confirm my statement that buyers were exhausted on 7/31: “ Any large sellers left will be, sans market-maker assistance (which has been in play this last week IMO), will have to take what they can get. Most retail buyers at this time are likely “full up” and some may be biased towards unloading their shares if we see that movement towards $0.30 is likely again”.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Forgot to mention that the largest trade was ~5 times the next largest. Removing that trade brings average trade size down to 4860.
    2 Aug 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I'm looking for the flooded business to increase by about 350k USD, flat classic and and slightly higher although negligible PBC sales.

     

    I think TG should have managed sales growth expectations better as the 6 month sales outlook should have been pretty obvious. If he was expecting a strong year starting out soft it should have been relayed as such. He failed miserably in this area. And to make it worse he gets giddy for the first time while the short term outlook is soft. Grade F.

     

    Of coarse I'm not here for the flooded sales anyway but I can still critique from the back row. :)

     

    The only thing that would surprise me would be continued soft flooded sales and or strong PBC sales. What's that saying about patience and killing something? lol
    2 Aug 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I believe the deafening silence from Axion has more to do with the projected selloff of unfriendly/departing major shareholders, who would gain a great deal from market-boosting announcements, than with a lack of things to talk about.

     

    Revenues are likely to be close to expectations, with a modest beat to the upside due to more sales to Penn.
    2 Aug 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Trip. We have to recall that Axion was ahead of schedule for deliveries to East Penn. Modest beat coming.

     

    I'd rather "flood" the market with PbCs, though. ;-)
    2 Aug 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    US growth is flat despite, or because of, enormous Federal deficits, Europe is in recession, and there is reduced growth in most of the rest of world. If Axion Q2 flooded revenue is flat, they are doing well. PbC sales depend entirely on when the NS initial sale is booked. There has not been an announcement, so my expectation is NS revenue will be in Q3. Any other PbC sales that are not development or demonstration programs would surprise me.

     

    We all need to put in a low buy order, take the month off and ignore the price. Some time there will be a catalyst. Sales growth is looking to be that it will be a slow (healthy) step by step progression. Predicting the week or month the stock rocket launches is entertaining and educational, but is not always prudent.
    2 Aug 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    unfortunately John, i think AXPW's share price isn't reflective of sales, growth or the worlds macro concerns.

     

    buy orders need to be placed based on investor's expectations for the company to get to 2014 and the companies ability to produce its product to meet potential demand. without sales, investors have time to slowly accumulate shares while the fog of distressed sellers lifts.
    2 Aug 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stubborn fire destroys battery building at Kahuku wind farm

     

    http://bit.ly/MeGZQX

     

    "The 15-megawatt battery energy storage system was designed by Xtreme Power Inc. of Kyle, Texas."
    2 Aug 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Xtreme Power claims their batteries are lead-based but I've had one professional out of Austin say they're lithium. I'm really confused about how a lead-based battery could catch fire. I'm also confused about the fire department's refusal to use water for containment.

     

    To quote urban legend, "Lucy, you've got some 'splainin to do! "
    2 Aug 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Whoa, this is very important news. This is essentially a direct competitor of the PowerCube, yes?
    2 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It has a much higher profile, and obviously a much higher fire risk.

     

    A similar fire took NGK out of the market for almost a year while they figured out how to make their NaS batteries safer. This is not great news for Xtreme – http://bit.ly/NcKTe5
    2 Aug 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I was shocked to see it was event number 2 at the same facility and this was the outcome of the second event.

     

    I think you're right. Rickey Ricardo is gonna want answers and there will be no Cuban Salsa Musica playing in Xtreme's sales department for some time.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Somebody stole the salsa.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    JP: I think your "Up In Smoke" you linked above is more apropos (hilarious!).

     

    I went into Xtreme's website, and couldn't figure out what the batteries were made of.

     

    But if the fire department is using a "dry agent" to smother the fire, I would suspect they are made with lithium.

     

    This is indeed huge news for the PowerCube.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    From their website the so called PowerCell is a kind of dry cell (http://bit.ly/rPgYH2) "Proprietary formulas of fundamental alloys, such as copper, lead and tellurium, " I bet that is where you heard the word lead.

     

    From other sources, they touted their technologies as chemical capacitors. http://bit.ly/QiQ5kS

     

    I wish they had secured their tellurium supply.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I found this at their site. Once I saw it I realized we'd covered it before in the concentrators.

     

    http://bit.ly/rPgYH2
    2 Aug 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Somebody out of Austin told me a couple months back that Xtreme Power's battery was a lithium variant, but there was no way to cross-check the apparent inconsistency with their website so I just put it in my "Things that make you go Hmmm" file.

     

    After all, lithium-ion battery fires are pretty unmistakeable since they look like this. - http://bit.ly/tLMbw6
    2 Aug 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I saw that, iindelco.

     

    What the heck is "ballistic grade fibers?"
    2 Aug 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    IIRC - Didn't I post an article stating that Xtreme was suing its inverter company Dynapower for the last fire?
    2 Aug 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    News film here:

     

    http://bit.ly/OrUjTM

     

    http://bit.ly/ODAUzA
    2 Aug 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    The batteries were described as "12000 individual battery packs" and an "innovative battery system" that depended on a $117M loan guarantee from DOE. Unlikely that it was lead-based, no?

     

    http://bit.ly/OrUjTM
    2 Aug 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "As with all new battery technologies, the proof will be in the deployments, with close attention being paid to how long, and for how many cycles of varying depths, the systems can operate before degrading."

     

    Houston, I think we have a degrading problem ...
    2 Aug 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    And here's a comment from the recent fire article, "Rehire the fire watchers that they laid off five months ago that saved this place from burning down numerous of times..." Holy smoly. Sounds like they built a real POS. Good for us.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Why yes you did sir. Defective capacitors as I recall.

     

    http://bit.ly/ODCeTi
    2 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's supposed to be some sort of "dry cell" chemistry that I've never seen adequately explained. My evil and cynical mind is always suspicious about black box technologies that aren't explained in sufficient detail for somebody to understand them. Xtreme Power is in that class for me.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Or at least sufficient detail to misunderstand them :)
    2 Aug 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Here's the Dynapower inverter page:
    http://bit.ly/PoV270

     

    Could be a hell of a lawsuit if it was the inverters again. Shades of (on a much smaller scale) BP, RIG, HAL. No doubt lots of fingers pointed outward.

     

    Always the possibility of sabotage.

     

    Gotta make an interesting engineering case study for the classroom one of the days ... if we ever get the real facts.

     

    If there was lithium involved, wouldn't this fire have been much more "spectacular?"

     

    Wonder if Septa will hear about this? How much more expense (and space?) to design systems that "degrade" more gracefully? Battery storage was already having trouble justifying its price to benefits. (not to Septa, but in other cases)

     

    Interesting lesson for PowerCube installations as well?

     

    As I recall, there were some discussion of potentially separating some of the power electronics from the actual batteries.

     

    This might have been for larger "multi-cube" systems?

     

    I have a vague memory of differences in required temperature range requirements for some components of the entire system. providing "opportunities" ...
    2 Aug 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Odds that GE-Durathon swoops in here, or for similar projects?
    2 Aug 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    NaMCl is a relatively slow chemistry, a feature that makes it less suitable for renewables integration. NaMCl is great if you want to power an EV for an hour or two, or take a diesel generator out of service for hours on end to save fuel at a remote cell tower, but it's much less capable for rapid charge and discharge.
    2 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    So, was it an I x I x R ( electrical heating) driven fire or was it chemical/combustion powered?

     

    Someone seems to have a quality control problem. I would have expected the battery to have an effective temperature monitoring system and some form of automatic shutdown for anything routine like "lose and hot" connections. But it is new technology.

     

    I'll go and check it out! Send me! Cool sea breezes, nice beaches!
    2 Aug 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Or was it the rogue conductive material spread though out the plant as a result of the other two fires? Why after the first fire did they start it back up knowing the caps were bad or was it not until after the second fire that they stopped crossing their fingers? This sounds like pure stupidity.

     

    " "On March 1, 2011, the Kahuku wind farm went online," Xtreme added. "On April 22, 2011, one of the inverters caught fire, destroying one of the DPMs and damaging nearby equipment and fixtures. Additionally, as a result of the fire, soot containing metallic fragments spread throughout the building. Because the metallic fragments were reactive with the DPMs' component batteries, Xtreme was forced to retain a company to completely clean out the soot from the building."
    In May 2011, a second inverter caught fire, and an investigation of both fires determined that "the capacitors supplied by ECI contained manufacturing defects that made them susceptible to combustion under ordinary use at the wind farm," the complaint states, abbreviating Electronic Concepts Inc."

     

    http://bit.ly/LnFuCo
    2 Aug 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If you watch the videos I linked above, it looks like the fire broke through the roof in a series of evenly spaced spots that were lined up in nice neat rows. While I don't know sic 'em from c'mere when it comes to fires outside the oil field, the pattern looks like the fire was widely distributed throughout the warehouse instead of being localized in one place.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I believe that would be Kevlar.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1702) | Send Message
     
    I want AXPW to make a sale to a utility scale renewable installation. What still needs to happen before they can compete for such projects? They are aware of the opportunity judging from the beginning of this video: http://binged.it/OswU4w
    2 Aug 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Could also be ballistic grade nylon.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    When I see something like that I start wondering about the dangers from within.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    My guess would be carbon fiber. Remember that it's good for anode material. And as we see with the BA 787 Dreamliner, the Corvette floor pan and BMW's future weight reduction dreams it's pretty strong stuff.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    That's too bad it was EC--they make good caps (normally). I've never had a problem with them.
    2 Aug 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Well we'll have to wait for the outcome of the investigation.

     

    As for EC. Everyone has problems. It's how you react to them that makes all the difference. People are going to be wrapped in banana leaves and thrown in the coals on this one. Even some innocents. Shame.
    2 Aug 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    "While I don't know sic 'em from c'mere when it comes to fires"

     

    Kinda looks like rows of something stacked underneith. When I was in the PowerCube I saw rows of Bateries stacked in nice straight line neat shelving. Hmmm
    3 Aug 2012, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Dynapower is the inverter that Axion is using in the PC in its new video.

     

    See 2:28 mark.

     

    http://bit.ly/RjVmWq
    3 Aug 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    The selling's not over yet, anyway. 130k ask at 33 cents (prob at least 100k of which is a carryover from yesterday, when it briefly flashed on Level II). Now somebody stepped in front w/ 10k ask at .3299.

     

    Kinda looking like a slo-mo repeat of our recent trip down to 29 cents. I know SimpleInstrument posted yesterday (on Concentrator 114, huh?) that he's "bailing", and it sounded like maybe his friends, too, after Axion wouldn't sell batteries to him. At least that's what I think he posted--was hard to tell. SI, if you read this, if you would elaborate, that might be helpful. Thanks.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I think I read it that way as well. I am glad Axion won't sell to individuals or even smallish companies, at this stage there is absolutely no reward in it for Axion. I see no reason to bail at these prices, perhaps we will hit a low of .29 again if Axionista's continue getting discouraged, but the cc should be very insightful.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1288) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz,

     

    agree. risk/reward selling direct to an individual? also, if you want production data look hard at Norfolk sales.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz,

     

    I also agree, on all counts.

     

    Brought up the seller because the recent selling has been thru ATDF, which is a retail channel. I have no idea how many shares SI and related folks have/had. The identity and supply of the recent big-ish seller(s) are a mystery, at least to me. Doesn't change my view much, though, that we're about out of big supply down here.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    My assumption for Q2 sales are Q1 sales plus or minus 20%. 1.5 to 2M. If an individual or small company couldn't buy the PbC how is this a positive? I personally think it is all up to the railroad market as to whether Axion survives or fails.

     

    Auto's want to buy chickens, not eggs, and Axion is an egg at this point. If the powercube had any real traction in the market it is invisible to me. Anything other than rail is moving slower than syrup in January.

     

    Regardless of my legal problems that might force a sale, I wonder if recovering 30% of my investment (small potatoes it might be - but they are all the potatoes I have) might be better than 0%.

     

    I think the captain can turn off the fasten seat belts sign now. Hoping for the best but hopium is not a sound investment strategy,
    2 Aug 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Here's an expose about the whole Kahuku wind farm "scam."

     

    http://bit.ly/N1bqOS
    2 Aug 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Knight seeks financing after $440 million loss; shares drop"

     

    Let me think about this.......Oh, I got it........... :))

     

    http://yhoo.it/OIuRgD
    2 Aug 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    August Altoona report: NS-999 has not moved.

     

    Maybe for my Birthday (early September) it will finally move! We've got about a month till the 120 day marker mentioned in the contract on 4/26.

     

    I asked about a battery delivery, but that wasn't answered. It's possible my source is only willing at this point to comment on what someone could observe from outside the grounds.

     

    I did ask about racks and the OPINION was that NS would make the first couple of them and wouldn't contract that out till there was some "volume" required. So that's one less "vendor wildcard" at this point.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Thanks so much for the update.

     

    Not the best news I'm afraid. Smells of a lack of urgency which is not good for AXPW in it's current state.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    "I did ask about racks and the OPINION was that NS would make the first couple of them and wouldn't contract that out till there was some "volume" required. So that's one less "vendor wildcard" at this point."

     

    Very encouraging to me... Do we have any pictures of the racking system? The 30HT is only .5" longer than the group 31 so I suspect horizontal spacing needs little modification. However, the 30HT is 2.75" taller which means a shelf (or two) needs to be removed and vertical spacing increased.

     

    My hope has been for an interim (hacked) racking solution that will allow the testing of the unit without a complete redesign and fabrication of the racking system. In other words, lets get the darn batteries in the slug and start testing!
    3 Aug 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    I bought a day pass to see a pay-walled version of the story on the Xtreme fire in HI that I thought might make some comment on the chemistry involved, but to no avail. It will be interesting to see what filters out.

     

    OT, my (unfortunately few) Jan13 $30 TSLA puts are up nicely. My novice charting skills have me expecting a drop to about $23 where I plan to sell.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on the TSLA puts Renzo. I think that HTL's target is pretty close to yours.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    I haven't seen anything about Xtreme's plans for the Duke Energy 1000MW wind farm in Texas. Press releases said they were expecting it to be operational late this year.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    Make that 150 MW (http://bit.ly/QC4Xue)
    2 Aug 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The farm is 150 MW, but the battery is only 36 MW.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    I guess that means a fire in Texas could be more than twice the size of the 15 MW Kahuku installation. I have a friend who's involved with wind power in TX-though not directly with Duke or Xtreme. I'll see what he knows.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Those of us who've lived in Texas knows that Texans always try to do it bigger than the rest of the country.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    I went past a Texas farm yesterday with 627 turbines and a total installed capacity of 781 MW. Quite a large site. As impressive as it is, I don't expect to see 300MWH of batteries installed.
    http://bit.ly/OQH1En
    4 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JohnM121 ... 300Mwh of quick dispatch from PowerCubes and long duration storage would make Roscoe more useful than it presently is. I wonder what a payback period might be. June through September, the prevention of just a few of our rolling brown-outs could be economical which (if the local news is to believed) cost the state 1-4 billion dollars in productivity.
    4 Aug 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    DRich: well if any of the estimates of national annual costs of grid failures of various types are believable, the estimate you report for TX doesn't seem far-fetched at all.

     

    As to the payback period for grid-scale alt-energy, I'm not sure that's the significant thing, unfortunately(?), in this environment. I'm afraid the only thing that will matter is did they meet the mandated % of renewable in their portfolio.

     

    Yeah, I know business will want to have some kind of normal ROI on it, but in a heavily regulated environment, that may be a lesser concern since they can just (often, mostly?) pass it on to consumers.

     

    I believe you had touched on some of that in your prior comments?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping to see increasing contract revenue if for nothing else but to maintain Mr. Granville's credibility. BW' numbers are what I'm expecting. Do remember that Axion had an equipment failure that slowed contract battery production (wasn't it a lead melting pot? It's not in my notes) although the company expected to make up most of the short-fall through extra shifts and stop-gap measures.

     

    I'm quite surprised given all the activity we read about in the press that Axion hasn't had any Power Cube wins since the Navy Yard purchase of a very small system (considering NS as part of the rail pot). This is particularly important to me since I believe the Power Cube is the application that will bridge the company to meaningful automotive revenues in 2015?

     

    For me, any new orders or reports of new customers would be a positive but I'm not expecting anything. I'm steeling myself for the stock price going back down to where it was at the end of last year and then maybe even lower when the next fund raise becomes imminent.

     

    This year has been very frustrating. First, Axion is tarred because it's not lithium ion. Now, with the bankruptcies and the fires, lithium ion batteries are being discredited and unfortunately, the whole battery sector, including Axion, will suffer for that. I believe we're headed towards a recession (if not actually in one) globally and here in the U.S., and oil prices are likely to decline over the short-medium term. I think lower energy prices and the poor economy could reduce the pressure to save energy and minimize CO2 to some extent.

     

    All in all, these factors are short to medium-term headwinds, it's easy to envision a scenario where 2013 represents more of the same as what we've experienced in 2012.

     

    A positive scenario would be if we've truly turned a corner and the "green" trend is locked in. In that case, maybe government and industry will not throw out the Axion "baby" with the Lithium-ion "bathwater" and 2013 could prove to be a very exciting year for Axion.
    2 Aug 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    To your point on cube sales- what is the expected sales cycle of a powercube? Are we not giving them enough time to receive sales vs. the rollout and pub of the powercube?
    2 Aug 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Articula: I still believe that FERC pricing is holding things up with the PowerCube.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    While I definitely agree about the FERC pricing uncertainty, I remain concerned that the inverter companies, being the highest price component, will ultimately drive and possibly control the market. Or the really big, well funded and possibly offering financing system integrators.

     

    We know Princeton Power for example, sells its own "battery agnostic" Energy Storage System. We know we didn't get chosen for the Alcatraz project I posted about yesterday. I'm now dubious about Fort Meade.

     

    I was excited about the PowerCube, but I've certainly tempered that excitement lately.

     

    This takes us back to the long discussion about marketing v. R&D resources we had in 126 starting about here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Aug 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Someone is happily selling at .32. There seems to be another dump maneuver still yet. How many more shares can Axionistas buy?
    2 Aug 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yep, JS. 30 cent shares back on the board today. Heck of a volume spike a few minutes ago.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think perhaps you're asking the wrong question. We know who the active Axionistas are, but there's a much larger universe of sympathizers out there who read the Concentrators regularly and haven't announced their membership as our brave fellowship continues the quest to level Sauron's black tower.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Flight money from TSLA seeking safe haven?
    2 Aug 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I think there are still some of us alive and kicking for more action, battered and bruised we may be.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    "Yep, JS. 30 cent shares back on the board today. Heck of a volume spike a few minutes ago."

     

    Yes, I know one of the buyers. His order was filled below the level of his limit order, and his order was filled so fast that it never even showed up in the bid/ask box on his screen.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    i think it´s necessary for axion to update their corporate website. Also, for a listed company I liked to see more press releases regarding. Perhaps in the form of a monthly or quarterly newsletter.The PR company is costing the firm a lot of money but the output can be much better in my eyes.

     

    I do think mr. Granville is working hard to establish certain goals but it would be fair to the shareholders to have more `information` on a regular basis.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    I agree to a point but I also fall into TB's thinking that a steady slew of PR only helps the rascals selling hard, once they let up I would like to see a few more interviews and positive pr campaigning. Especially now that nearly every other battery company and chemistry out there has been getting whacked, most recently xtreme's latest fiasco.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    To be fair, we don't yet know if it was Xtreme's fault. And we may not know for quite a while. We also have no idea what suggestions they made to First Wind that were ignored in the name of profit.
    2 Aug 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1702) | Send Message
     
    Great points, WTB
    2 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Unless things have changed a lot since I was Axion's Chairman, the PR firm is working on a carefully controlled budget to provide a very limited range of services. Since I haven't seen any significant changes in the level of PR, my guess would be that things haven't changed much.

     

    Axion is a difficult case when it comes to PR because it's potential customers want it to keep its head down and its mouth shut. The first thing any major industrial company requires when it decides to test a product like a battery is demand an iron-clad non-disclosure agreement that prevents the manufacturer from even mentioning the customer's name without the customer's prior consent.

     

    I've never seen a company with the depth of customer relationships we see at Axion. BMW has already appeared on-stage with Axion at the 2010 ELBC. Norfolk Southern has already ordered batteries. Thanks to an Axionista who filed a Freedom of Information Act request, we know that GM joined Axion in a joint DOE Grant Application.

     

    The problem with the stock has nothing to do with PR or customer relationships. It's all attributable to selling pressure from a few holders that used to be big and now aren't much more than speed bumps.
    2 Aug 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Irrespective of how it turns out I'm going to bet they start putting fire walls around different sections of these units. It's a damn shame to lose the whole enchilada because one part of the system fails.

     

    Separation of church and state is good, so I've heard. Doesn't work for banks and brokers though.
    2 Aug 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    A publicity nightmare for all involved, followed by a lengthy court battle and potential financial problems.
    2 Aug 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of analysis of what Axion's problem is, it seems there will be shares trading below 30 cents again tomorrow despite theses that we would return closer to 35 cents by now.

     

    It is okay. We have time. But, the price will go up when it does, and not when we guess it will.

     

    ... and I think I might push out crossing the $1 price mark to 45,000 comments.

     

    disclosure: overweight AXPW, bought shares today, not done buying yet
    2 Aug 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    45,000 was my first guess, calculating it will be next April when we push over a buck.

     

    But I didn't think JP could take it. :-)
    2 Aug 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One thing I know for sure is that the timing is not in my control. I've been through this drill with supply and demand imbalances of a few million shares that were absorbed by a couple hundred new investors. This is the first time I've seen an imbalance of almost fifty million shares that required thousands of new investors. It's an order of magnitude bigger than anything I've seen before so the rules may be very different. I should know a lot more by the end of the month than I do now.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    My 10 minutes worth of positives and negatives at the moment.

     

    Optimistic about:
    1. Technology – KIAS, DCA that sets PbC apart from competition
    2. stingy management
    3. experienced marketing manager
    4. new potential markets mentioned at last CC
    5. partners i.e. Viridity, Rosewater
    6. OEM testing
    7. patents
    8. no debt
    9. NS validation

     

    Wary of:
    1. lack of reported sales
    2. length of time for testing OEM's
    3. length of time for validation NS
    4. acceptance of technology
    5. NDA's make for no news
    6. don't know where company stands with customers, or number of customers
    7. if there is a just good enough battery for start/stop
    8. are there enough bodies in marketing?
    9. Power vs. Energy – is the lack of energy vis-a-vis other chemistries going to hurt the PbC,
    10. FERC murky
    11. competition in PC market
    12. upcoming fund raising
    13. see competition getting contracts
    14. new technologies
    15. state of global economy
    16. although Rosewater has experience in field, is training technicians, and has a target market, the residential PC is not ready for sale yet.
    2 Aug 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Power vs energy is one of my hang-ups as well, where does the cost to performance ratio hit. I keep going back to the fact that while the PbC could be entirely disruptive and take multiple markets by storm (my hope and investment), it could also survive pretty well as a niche player and make a respectable revenue year-to-year (which is my worst case scenario with the company). Either way I know the investment should be solid because of the positives you mentioned, most importantly no debt, and experienced/patient management. When they do get revenue going though I wouldn't mind seeing just a trifle of debt to fund further expansion although the next raise should be straight to market equity.
    2 Aug 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    FERC murky...

     

    Sounds slightly obscene.
    2 Aug 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    A FERC Murky - Sounds like something that would be on a menu at an establishment in the red light district of Amsterdam - with all due respect to our Dutch members.
    2 Aug 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    Exide form 10-Q

     

    http://bit.ly/MTrEeF
    2 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Holy hell. First pass looks all kinds of fugly. Anybody got a different take?
    2 Aug 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    A loss of $1.38 per share vs. estimates of about $0.00 per share hurts!

     

    Most of that ($1.14) is a tax valuation allowance but it's still a painful report!
    2 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I'm no Exide expert, but these may be silver linings:

     

    In their Transportation Segments, "Globally, fiscal 2013 first quarter aftermarket unit volume was flat as compared to the prior year first quarter while units sold to OE customers increased approximately 23% quarter-over-quarter."

     

    And, "The backlog of orders in our Global Industrial Energy business at the end of June 2012 is at the highest level of the most recent four years. The backlog in the Americas is up roughly 30% year-over-year and up more than 27% sequentially. In the Europe and ROW segment, backlog at June 30, 2012 is up over 16% and is roughly flat sequentially."
    2 Aug 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Concur, at least a few silver linings...for the future. But in the near term looks like they're just getting squeezed. Core prices, exchange rates, lead escalators, Oy vey! Talk about a rough patch. Unit volumes good though. But still, hard to buy for 10 cents, sell for 9.9, and make it up in volume.. ;)
    2 Aug 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure of the implications for Axion, but I posted Exide's volumes info thinking that probably the most important factor in Axion's flooded sales biz is unit volume. And Exide seems to be doing ok in that regard, anyway, so maybe East Penn is, too, and hence Axion, three.
    2 Aug 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    "5. NDA's make for no news "

     

    That may be a function of specific NDA's. I have no problem with non-disclosure of working relationships with specific potential buyers. OTOH, if terms of an NDA inhibit release of performance data relevant to battery selection in other industries not in competition with the other NDA party, I have absolutely major difficulties with the NDA and competence of the management that agreed to it.

     

    2 Aug 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Your comment reminds me of my own post a few weeks ago on this subject in regards to my learning at the Annual Meeting that there are no NDA limitations regarding the power cube performance.

     

    I wrote that an insider at Axion told me that and also in effect told me that we should be pressuring Axion Management to publish information on the performance of the power cube.

     

    In my mind, I thought that was very important information. Instead, the statement was entirely ignored by this board. Not a single person commented on it positively or negatively. No one communicated on the board, or to me privately, a single thought regarding whether or not we should become activist shareholders, to what degree, and what methods should be used.

     

    Yes, I'm a bit frustrated by that. If anyone has any thoughts on this subject or advice to me, please send me a private note.
    2 Aug 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    apm, didn't realize you might be looking for reaction to your comments re-disclosure of info. Unhappiness with Axion's non-disclosure of technical performance data has been expressed in multiple APC's from time to time. But, your point about performance of the New Castle PC is a bit different and a very good one. It just became one of several elements TG will be asked to address in the next conference call, elements laid out in a letter to him I expect to finalize within the next day or two.
    2 Aug 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    apm, I just figured that Viridity and Rosewater are in effect the primary PC marketers, and Vani concentrates on transportation.
    2 Aug 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I would not be in favor of becoming activist for the vary reason they sign NDA's. They know way much more about the business than we do. It's up to you on whether to trust management or not.

     

    Do you believe in the story & technology?
    2 Aug 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    With all due respect to voiced concerns, I have to say I'm in Articula's camp here. At least for now. Sometimes being too close to the business *can* result in myopia, but I think that is more the exception than the rule. At this point, I still trust Axion to know what they're doing--being closest to the action, to know who they're dealing with, and to do that which is wisest to keep tracking and executing according to long-term plan. We all want this to get funnier/faster. Yesterday. But we just can't escape the fact that we're dealing with notoriously slow moving customers. It just seems to be the nature of this business. In any case, the tortoise plods on. And shows no sign of exhaustion. But whipping him probably can't change his gait.
    2 Aug 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    " It's up to you on whether to trust management or not. "

     

    Trust but verify. Verification is taking more time than it should IMO. Non-response to MJ's questions in the last conference call has two possible explanations -- unwillingness to define performance benchmarks or inability to do so. Neither is fully satisfactory.

     

    Time to do some 'splaining.
    2 Aug 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    APM - I have commented once or twice that I hope that Axion is gearing up to produce another technical paper on the results of the PC at New Castle. There is actually an IEEE call for papers that I thought would be suitable and I think I posted a link.

     

    Interestingly, in the meantime, we found out that they are gearing up to present another technical paper on start/stop in commercial vehicles.

     

    http://bit.ly/NhFtSW

     

    In my opinion, Axion is good at putting together technical papers and it would be a shame if they are not considering it.
    2 Aug 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Don't recall anyone posting the DRAFT spec sheet(s) on the Rosewater Residential Storage System. From Rosewater website.

     

    http://bit.ly/MfIjmy
    2 Aug 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    "Each individual battery has a one-hour rated capacity of 0.5 kWh"

     

    Wowee, one-hour rate capacity, really? Something new which I didn't know is always good.

     

    "the SAE uses the discharge over a period of 20 hours (0.05C) as the standard condition for measuring the Amphour capacity of automotive batteries. The graph below shows that the effective capacity of a deep discharge lead acid battery is almost doubled as the discharge rate is reduced from 1.0C to 0.05C."
    http://bit.ly/NNNUpX

     

    Though I don't expect PbC's ah could double when tested under c/20 rate. I do expect that result to improve a lot. A quick calculation made me believe PbC has energy density comparable to its flood-ed cousin.
    2 Aug 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3121) | Send Message
     
    Somewhere (sorry, don't remember where) I saw the C/20 capacity is 700 whr, compared to the C1 rate of 500 whr.

     

    Numbers that have not been reconciled to me are the calculations with low voltages. The SAE rate is down to 10.5 v (IIRC), the PbC has energy down to c. 4 volts. Amp-hr calculations are assuming 12 volts; it's not clear to me how to compute whr numbers at 4 v, or whether the 700 whr number assumed 12 volts or the area under the (undisclosed, but assumed straight-line) power curve.

     

    This obscurity of basic battery data by Axion is annoyingly similar to Musk's quote: "There are few industries with more BS than the battery industry ... It's quite remarkable."
    2 Aug 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    "' Each individual battery has a one-hour rated capacity of 0.5 kWh'

     

    Wowee, one-hour rate capacity, really? Something new which I didn't know is always good. "

     

    :-) 'Tis good. Also like Axion battery info from the technical spec sheet such as
    weight = 75 lbs.,
    nominal 1 hour rating = 75 Ah,
    battery voltage end-of-charge = 324 VDC (i.e. - 13.5 VDC per bat)
    battery voltage - nominal open circuit = 288 VDC (i.e. - 12 V per bat)

     

    Is it outlandish to conclude from the "nominal open circuit" spec that the battery management system includes circuitry to stablize discharge voltage?
    2 Aug 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3121) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv - I think you misunderstand the charging cycle.

     

    To charge a nominal 12 volt battery (e.g. flooded lead acid), power is supplied up to 14.8 volts, until the battery accepts no more more power. When the charger is removed and the battery is full, the battery might show 14.2 volts. The voltage will decline with usage, at 12 volts about half the energy is gone. The battery will be fully discharged at about 10.5 volts.

     

    There is no voltage regulation in most systems. The devices (automotive types) can use power in the range 11 to 14 volts.

     

    AGM batteries typically charge at slightly lower voltages, so 13.5 volts would be fully charged. It is a nominal 12 volt battery, just like a flooded lead acid.

     

    Unless there is some very exacting electronic requirement for a precise voltage, there is no voltage regulation. However, a bio-carbon, which is a type of AGM, discharges down to about 4 volts, so in that case there needs to be some voltage regulation, safety cutout, or something, since very few nominal 12 volt devices work at 4-10 volts.

     

    The start/stop approach merely does not use the lower voltage energy. It is not clear (to me) what is Rosewater's approach to tapping (or not) the power available at low voltage. Tapping the low voltage power effectively is not trivial; transformers don't work on DC, and cable size can be a limiting factor of high current at low voltage. The easy /lazy /cheap solution is just not to use the low voltage power at all.

     

    Edit: The Rosewater data sheet indicates a 50% derating at 48 volts (2 volts per battery), so apparently they have engineered it to make use of the low voltage power.
    2 Aug 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    Rick K > "D-Inv - I think you misunderstand the charging cycle. "

     

    :-) That could very well be, though I do understand (mostly from your and iindelco contributions on the APCs) that 12V auto batteries are charged at 14V and output power over a range of roughly 12 V +/- 1.5V. I took that info to imply auto OEMs designed their electrical systems to operate within that range in part to support battery life cycles acceptable to ultimate consumers. And that deeper discharge of batteries was possible but with power output declining at an accelerating rate and shortening battery service life. Hence, I think/thought a significant portion of the energy stored in a 12V auto battery is never accessed.

     

    In contrast, it is my understanding voltage in a PbC battery declines steadily from onset of discharge and at a faster rate than seen in LABs, but can continue to full discharge without appreciably shortening service life (charge/discharge cycle capability). And, the steady, relatively quick decline in voltage to levels below 10.5 V is presumably the reason PbC batteries are unsuitable for "drop-in" aftermarket replacements for auto OEM batteries, marine batteries, etc. It appears possible, however, to overcome the progressive voltage decline characteristic of capacitors by pairing PbCs in discharge mode with a Ćuk or other dc-dc converter.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    "weight = 75 lbs.,
    nominal 1 hour rating = 75 Ah,"

     

    :-) That 1 Ah per lb reminds me of the price/weight relationship of a new 1965 model VW Beetle in Texas: price - $1,760; weight - 1,760 lbs.
    3 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Ow2xdA
    3 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    And for you AXPW founders:
    http://bit.ly/ONjVhV
    3 Aug 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I was also thinking about writing TG a letter. I hadn't thought about the conference call angle though. Great idea. I'll follow your example.

     

    Articula/481086: I can understand your concern. Before writing my note, I called JP to ask him his thoughts, not so much about what to do, but to attempt to get a read on what was going on. Was the guy I spoke with some kind of nut or loose cannon? Actually, John's answer was quite the opposite. I think the point is that good, knowledgeable people who all have the company's best interests at heart can disagree. While obviously not as knowledgeable and accomplished as TG and the other insiders, I do feel strongly about my views and that my "vote" should be noted. I also think you underestimate insider myopia.
    2 Aug 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    AP,
    I talked with the same much long term type investor with you at the annual meeting. His comments made a deep impression on me.

     

    As far as my conversation with him it was obvious that he believes the PbC offers one major competitive advantage over any other battery at a low price. The ability to accept rapid charge and then rapidly discharge. He believes the shareholders should inform management that the company should be focused on markets that use this advantage.

     

    What I still find amazing is this. The PowerCube does exactly this function behind the meter. Axion is not focusing on this at all. Instead it is looking at a "home version" that rarely needs to cycle.

     

    I believe the investor was concerned that the company is losing its focus or advantage, while waiting for a stop/start or locomotive order. We need to be exploring any and all markets that need rapid charge and discharge applications.

     

    I'm with you on maybe using the next CC as a reminder to the company to get its focus correct.
    3 Aug 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    So isn't Septa the perfect application of that competitive advantage?

     

    That market could be huge, and it's just beginning. I've got to believe that the Congress will eventually get its head on a little straighter (or remove it from its current location) and free up some public infrastructure funding via for example an infrastructure bank if nothing else. We need to be ready to pounce when that happens. I live near Chicago and they're talking/debating about taking a major elevated line out of service for 4-6 months to rebuild track next year.

     

    I want to know what the company has done with respect to Viridity on this: why it appears we didn't get the second substation, and whether this market is a focus of CURRENT company "marketing" resources. If our Olympic uniforms being made in China can cause a flap, surely buying more expensive, possibly more dangerous batteries for our rapid transit from the French ought to cause a stir!

     

    And speaking of Viridity, just as we talked about getting involved with multiple inverter companies, and multiple large system integrators, maybe we need to find some other companies like Viridity to apply a little marketing focus to.
    3 Aug 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    I share your feelings. A home PowerCube is DOA. I say this because I personally would not buy it--it would represent a constant, significant, additional load due to its relatively high self-discharge. I'd just get a backup generator.

     

    It _must_ be used for fast charge/discharge, as PJM is doing for frequency regulation.
    Mitch
    3 Aug 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Good to hear from you futurist!

     

    You are right. I haven't written about it here, but this insider seemed to be frustrated that Axion was spreading its efforts out over too many potential markets instead of focusing on its best niches. Can you remember the phrase he kept using? Anyway, as you said, he believes that Axion should be focusing on the applications with the greatest number of cycles in a given period of time, like the grid applications. It was around this same time that he referred to NS as a "demonstration project" for a stagnant industry. I believe he thought automotive is not a near-term thing.

     

    As for the residential power cube, I expected that he'd be against it, but instead, he seemed to have faith in the Rosewater guy and presumably the power smoothing aspect of that project.
    3 Aug 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Mitch... understand your feelings, but gotta quibble with the "significant" load characterization. Even if we assume 50% self discharge a month (wildly overstated), we're talking 6KWh a month...certainly less than a dollar a month. I would humbly submit that this is not significant for the target market. What I bet is significant is the reliability, quietness, seamless cut-in, power quality, islanding capability, and for many, the solar PV tie in.
    3 Aug 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    wtb: You hit on my frustration. The Septa-type application seems ideally suited for the PbC. Nevertheless, despite this and Axion's support from the state government, including the governor, it couldn't get Septa to test its product. Is there a way to find out if the PbC was considered?
    3 Aug 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    '86,
    You have good points. I fervently hope to be proved wrong.
    Mitch
    3 Aug 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Al: I'm pretty sure the PowerCube hadn't even been assembled when SEPTA was in initial talks with SAFT. I think the SAFT/SEPTA/Viridity partnership was underway way back in 2009, or 2010 at the latest.

     

    We also have to remember the DOE was (maybe still is) favoring anything lithium, and throwing gobs of money around back then.

     

    Betting Axion was still too nascent with the Cube to get consideration.
    3 Aug 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >apmarshall62 ... SEPTA awarded SAFT that contract in June 2011. In the battery world that probably means that the technology was picked in 2009 and a settled matter in 2010 when the government grant was announced. So, the Axion PbC didn't exist for SEPTA (thus not in the consideration) and probably won't be considered even as a different technology/chemistry will be tested in a second installation.

     

    I agree the PbC would be an excellent choice for testing and maybe ... just, maybe ... it will be included in some future project. I would think a lot of that would depend as much on who Axion had a manufacturing alliance with as much as the battery itself.
    3 Aug 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Ha! Beatcha' by 3 minutes ;-)
    3 Aug 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Maya ... It's the cold. I don't function well in cold weather. I can't seem to get going until it's over 100 degF and presently it's only 97 degF.
    3 Aug 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    APM

     

    "...an insider at Axion told me that and also in effect told me that we should be pressuring Axion Management to publish information on the performance of the power cube....Was the guy I spoke with some kind of nut or loose cannon? "

     

    "Insider" employee or investor?
    Either way, an interesting conundrum.
    Investors want me info...yet TG has to be wary.
    3 Aug 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Futurist

     

    "I believe the investor was concerned that the company is losing its focus or advantage, while waiting for a stop/start or locomotive order. We need to be exploring any and all markets that need rapid charge and discharge applications."
    Now that would appear to be a fair and up front question!
    3 Aug 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3121) | Send Message
     
    -86 > The home PC has a constant drain of several percent because it is a double inverter type system. If the 10 kw system has an average of 5kw running thru it, you might be running 180kwh in consumption per month. Maybe $250/year in additional electricity, unless there is time-of-day metering to offset it.

     

    More accurate numbers or revisions welcome.
    4 Aug 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    And if, like me, you don't know exactly what a "double inverter" means, Rick described in here in his Annual Meeting comment focused on the Residential PC:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Aug 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Rick, to me, the Rosewater diagram is a bit ambiguous. Is it clear from that, that line energy actually flows through the inverter train in normal operation? From what is presented it appears that the inverter output is paralleled with line and that the only energy flowing though the inverter is that from the battery and auxiliary DC bus with (any) attached auxiliary DC sources. It looks like that's the path for normal (grid energized) operation and then by virtue of the relay, the other mode is as a backup source poised to cut-in during grid interruptions. But in any event, the point is taken that apart from battery bank self-discharge, all the associated electronics will present some continuous level of consumption (though possibly mitigated by PV). Yet still, I would think through good design, that those losses should be kept minimal, relative to the benefits of the whole system. Clearly, this will never be a mass-market product. It's got to cost at least 25K if it's a dime, and so is never going to be able to really justify itself economically, unless perhaps for remote off grid. Rather I'd say it's for the 1-2+ million$ executive home/ mcmansion set, ones with lots of gucci appliances and electronic goodies to keep comfy and happy: custom home theatres, audiophile soundrooms, expansive security systems, gourmet kitchens etc etc..
    4 Aug 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    New Axion YouTube Video...

     

    Axion Power™ International's Power Cube™ Technical Video

     

    http://bit.ly/RjVmWq
    2 Aug 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I loved it! Except for the "where did the lugnut go" part.

     

    I've been inside the PowerCube three times, and this video reminds me how elegant and yet simple it truly is.

     

    Amazing the timing, considering yesterday's Haruku event; with the "top of the line, environmentally the safest" dry agent fire suppression system, all built in.

     

    Very cool.

     

    Everyone should be "Liking" this video.

     

    Thanks, Tim!
    3 Aug 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In my experience, "where did that darned lug nut go?" is an essential step in every replacement and maintenance operation. I've been hearing talk of a new video for several weeks now and am glad to see that it's finally finished.
    3 Aug 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I thought the first segment of the video to be very impressive, the second part, less so. Also, are the batteries arranged more than one deep? If that is the case, then I think demonstrating ease of replacement for one the batteries in the back (vice an easy one in the front) would have been more instructive and more valuable. But still, overall, the PC looks to be a sophisticated, robust, and well-designed piece of gear.
    3 Aug 2012, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4810) | Send Message
     
    481', I had a very similar reaction. And, I wondered whether it might not have been better to have used a somewhat less robust agent on the battery demonstration. Looked to me like the guy pretty much filled "the work area". :-) Had no difficulty lifting/moving the battery though.
    3 Aug 2012, 03:25 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "where did that darned lug nut go?"

     

    A little over a year ago I was attending a charity event where all the men wear red dresses. I was using a friend's car to deliver meat for the following BBQ and she had provided me with only a single key and no key chain. While transferring the meat from one car to the next, I somehow lost the key in about a 10 square yard area.

     

    So there I was - a mid-fifties man - on the street dressed in a red belly dancing outfit, a long black wig, and a feathered boa (it was chilly) on a street searching for a car key - mostly on hands and knees. Many passerbys offered their help - but without success: other pedestrians clutched their children to them and eyed me suspiciously. Finally someone spotted the key over an hour later in a small hole where it was practically invisible. .
    3 Aug 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think that's a story I might not have shared. Cross-dressing Neanderthals will be a really hard image to shake. It may haunt me for the rest of my life. Knowing this crowd it will most certainly haunt you for that long.
    3 Aug 2012, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, there has been at least one worse incident since then which has made my friends almost forget the losing of the key.
    3 Aug 2012, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Time for a new avatar Metro
    3 Aug 2012, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Metro: Any pics? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 Aug 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Anyone: I am a professional photoshop pixel pusher...

     

    Anyone want some pics? Let's see, where did I put that red feather boa reference shot?....

     

    Just kidding, metroN... Say, were you wearing matching lipstick?
    3 Aug 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    This situation is just crying out for an NDA.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Too late.

     

    The turtle is already out of the jaccuzi.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Attendees of the recent plant tour remarked about a 20' container. Looks like this is it?
    3 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    66 views so far. That's darned impressive!
    3 Aug 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    I'm so bad at keeping track of nuts that I have a big bar ferrite magnet that I stick to the equipment frame to hold removed nuts. I've also seen plastic bowl type containers with attached magnets that stick to ferrous frames and serve the same purpose. They just don't depend on the magnet to keep the nuts in place (gravity is everywhere ;-) .
    3 Aug 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Yes, everyone should be thankful that I didn't become an aircraft mechanic as I always have either leftover parts, or am missing some. And am so absent minded I decided against being an electrician as I knew I would eventually electrocute myself by forgetting to turn off the power.
    3 Aug 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Ahhhh, The number of times I've seen people in assy plants attempt to transfer ferrous parts from containers to feed systems with magnets to make it easy. Or to use a magnet to remove the parts from the feeder to clean it and then put the parts back. Then wonder why the feed system will not feed those parts with residual magnetism. Must have cleaned the bowl wrong better do it again!

     

    Oh well, at least they got a free coffee break for not paying attention in science class.....if they made it that far. Some didn't so you had to be careful.
    3 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    NO...NO...TMI!...;-)..... a nice break!
    3 Aug 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I wrote a very negative summary comment about Q2 earlier in this concentratror. I believed that Axion would survive for fiscal year 2012 in 2011 and that they would score in 2012. In fact they did score with the NS order but it had no impact on the share price. In fact the price fell due to a lot of elephants trying to get through the pay window at the same time. The small, but meaningful, DOE win could ultimately be highly beneficial to the company, but that had no price impact either.

     

    If the NS win didn't move the stock what bolt of lightning is going to strike between now and year end that will impact the stock price? I have a hard time believing Rosewater and the home PC is going to move the needle.

     

    TG raised expectations twice so far this year and nothing has happened to date since NS. The company desperately needs a manufacturing partner of substance to win any auto business IMHO. Would someone please give me a one solid reason based on fact and not conjecture to be optimistic about Axion sales for the remainder of this year?
    2 Aug 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I am moderately optimistic about Axion's revenue of the whole year because of the following two points.
    a. the second flooded LAB line may be utilized in Q2 and beyond
    b. the bill of lading on may 31 showed they imported 360 cartons of active carbon from japan. From historical bills, 360 cartons weight a little north of 4 metric tons which, if John's calculation is right, represent carbon electrodes for 4K PbC units. NSC's first order is only a quarter of that. However, we may need wait until Q3 and beyond to see the real impact.

     

    And I am ok if next round finance offering pegged, as long as they stay afloat.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    The activated carbon order is interesting. Assuming a generous $400 per battery and 4K batteries sold that would be $1.6M in PbC sales. Was Axion anticipating an OTR locomotive order when they ordered the activated carbon? Who knows? It will be fairly easy to swag the mix between flooded and PbC batteries based on customer sales percentages. Let's see what the Q2 numbers tell us about the sales mix in a couple weeks.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    BW, an actual production contract for X number of PbC batteries over Y number of months would be a great start for me! We need to be in production before anyone takes a serious look at us. NS could do this for us...
    2 Aug 2012, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    bang, You know I love you immeasurably. But I have to question why you are looking at one input to a process and trying to quantify a far more complex equation. I would guess from a raw material standpoint the one component you are tracking is not going to support your point. It's probably one of the least significant costs, before processing, in their cost structure.

     

    And it's so far away, I'd buy some insurance as well.

     

    So we look for clues. :)
    3 Aug 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure what metric/measure would satisfy your request.

     

    1) You don't know for sure whether to sell or hold. Not a comfortable place to be, the indecision is based on factors outside our purview but it is a fact that the greater the indecisiveness the slower one should proceed and the smaller steps one should take.

     

    2) The recent high volume of sales with this stock has been pretty readily consumed without a dramatic decline in the price. Mid thirties before the big selloffs, oscillating between .30 to .35 since. That in itself is a pretty dramatic fact given the size of this company and the relative trading volumes.

     

    3) My view (I know conjecture) is that many posts here tend to take a micro view of each piece of tech info rather than the macro. eg., 48 volt electric system for autos. This new voltage standard, if adopted, is not because stop-start alone needs this new regime, rather efficiencies that come with electric power steering, brakes, transmission pumps, turbo chargers, ... are also aimed at meeting CAFE standards. Stop-Start is only one approach and will both benefit from this other strategy and be challenged by it. I believe (again conjecture) the PbC will shine if these new strategies are implemented yet discussion here seems to lean more towards fearing this would be the death for the PbC. The implementation of the 48volt strategy is fraught with many new challenges of its own and will likely take even longer to implement than the many Stop-Start iterations.
    Bottom line some of these discussions distract from the core benefits of the PbC and make the corporate silence even more unbearable.

     

    4) The silence is becoming deafening, but I don't see how it can continue much longer and if it does your dilema will become less diffuse. You will surely sell the bulk of your holdings before I do simply because you are a few steps ahead of many of us here on the PC, as regards your current and tentative sell consideration, and you are more actively monitoring this stock than many (especially me).

     

    5) The market sucks at this time, so where you going to go with whats left of your investment. More importantly, can anyone meet the same standard posited by your original question "
    someone please give me a one solid reason based on fact and not conjecture to be optimistic..." regarding your next stop!

     

    6) I like your style and efforts here and wish you well regardless of the path you take!
    3 Aug 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic and thoughtful post 42itus1. Thank you.

     

    I appreciate the macro pull-back and I think your point in #5 is part of why I keep adding more and more to Axion. I actually feel like I have better visibility on what will happen to Axion next than just about anything else in the market currently - with thanks to all on this blog for that.
    3 Aug 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Individuals never understand the psychology of institutions. That's particularly true when the individuals are on the buy side and the institutions are on the sell side. Because of the way the money management industry works, institutions only have three actions – buy, hold and sell. No matter which side of the market they're on, institutions are always heavy handed because the decision to take an action is made by a manager and the follow through is delegated to a drone. When the drone gets an assignment to buy or sell X million shares, he goes to work and he doesn't stop until he's finished the task unless the manager changes his instructions.

     

    In terms of behavioral psychology, Quercus, Blackrock and the bankruptcy trustee are all in the same boat. Management has made selling decisions and the drones won't stop until they're done. Once they're done it will be like turning off a light.

     

    We only have a few bright line numbers, but we have enough data to draw some fuzzy but relatively accurate conclusions.

     

    At March 30th, Blackrock had 5.2 million paper shares and Quercus had 2.25 million paper shares. Since March 30th, the reported FINRA short sales total 6.1 million shares, which leaves about 1.3 million in the hands of our two traceable sellers. Based on their SEC filings and two years of consistent behavior, we can estimate that Quercus is down to 51,000 shares for their Q3 allocation and 767,000 shares for their Q4 allocation. That leaves about 510,000 shares in the hands of a drone at Blackrock. Quercus will be out of stock this week. It looks like Blackrock will be out of stock before the conference call.

     

    The bankruptcy trustee is fuzzier, but we know there's been 3.75 million shares of selling since July 10th. Of that total, 2 million shares are accounted for in the FINRA short reports. There are only two possible sources for the last 1.75 million shares - the trustee and retail holders who've gotten discouraged. We know there are some of both.

     

    Depending on what you want to assume for the bankruptcy trustee, the short-term supply barrel has somewhere between 800,000 and 1.5 million shares left. That's all there is. Today we have three sets of drones at work. Later this week that number will become two. Until the number is zero the drones will do what drones always do – follow instructions.
    3 Aug 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Thanks for providing those details. Total volume since July 10 has been 7,456,071 shares - according to my spreadsheet. I was thinking the other day that we need to make about 12,000,000, or roughly another 4,550,000 shares to be somewhere in the area where we are clear of the big sellers. So we are about 2/3 the way there. Just am content to see my rough calculation corresponds mostly with your detailed analysis.
    3 Aug 2012, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Continuation of above:
    However, one of my concerns is that BR is only selling shares at the .34- 35 range and has not been selling below that price. I don't know how that matches the FINRA short reports, or if the FINRA short reports would indicate that BR is selling below that range.
    3 Aug 2012, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Your 12 million estimate may be on the high side, but we should be there by the end of August in any event.

     

    The FINRA numbers are too big to just be Quercus. Since the 10th, total volume was 7,457,900 (daily round up to next 100 shares) and total FINRA shorts were 2,025,909 (not rounded).

     

    At a straight 10% of volume, Quercus would have sold 745,000 shares, meaning that the other 1,280,909 would have had to come from Blackrock because nobody else has both paper and weight.

     

    Since I believe Quercus works with a two-pronged limit that keeps daily sales a hair under 10% of volume and cumulative 90-day sales under the 850,000 share limit in their Form 144, I think the real breakdown was ±655,000 shares for Quercus and ±1,371,000 for Blackrock.

     

    I believe the Blackrock drone set a pre-empt price of $.35 when it and Quercus were the only active sellers in the game. When the trustee came to the party as a "hidden" third factor, it looks like both Blackrock and Quercus both responded by dropping their targets because the one thing a drone can't do is move to the sidelines.

     

    Imagine if you will an administrative assistant saying "Yes Lord Vader, I know you told me to sell that trivial block of shares but I looked at market conditions and decided we'd be better off sitting on the sidelines for a couple months."
    3 Aug 2012, 03:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    "... 7,457,900 (daily round up to next 100 shares) and total FINRA shorts were 2,025,909 (not rounded)".

     

    "... At a straight 10% of volume, Quercus would have sold 745,000".

     

    Since the reported volume *includes* Quercus's 10%, a closer estimate should be achieved by dividing by 11 (~677,991) or multiplying by ~0.0909 (677,923).

     

    It's only a ~70K difference, but those pennies add up over multiple periods.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Aug 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    "Depending on what you want to assume for the bankruptcy trustee, the short-term supply barrel has somewhere between 800,000 and 1.5 million shares left. That's all there is."

     

    I believe that Axionistas and lurkers have a lot more buying interest than that amt., even when you add some of them selling spooky shares. Question is, as what prices do they get in? A restest of 29 cents would be easy, but do you wait for a break thru that?
    3 Aug 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    $.29 is very nice. I believe there will be plenty of buying support there.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Concur, tripleback. Not that many more big sellers' shares to go. Of course, we could see capitulation selling/mass dumpage, but I'd guess that would bring out the catfish schools in force.

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if some buyers start to get worried soon, that the fire sale prices might not last much longer. We'll see.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    John

     

    Given the supply/demand dynamics, behavioral psychology, money manager players' function, big block sellers (and rationale), AXPW product function offerings and chosen/given/accepted (?) strategy...if/when that inflection point hits, if/when the OEM allow AXPW to bypass the NDA...this could make for one hell of a book or "white paper"!

     

    I'm still in...not going anywhere, but a frustrating, learned and interesting ride!
    3 Aug 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    There is no NDA on the PowerCube and there is no NDA on the PBC. So they could publish detailed specs on these but have not.

     

    The NDA's are associated with customer programs not internally driven Axion programs.

     

    Most of what I'd care to know would come from detailed specs on the PBC battery.
    3 Aug 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco: YES!
    3 Aug 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.
    3 Aug 2012, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    8/2/2012: Copied to my daily APH EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 70000, Vol 471500, AvTrSz: 10965
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3157
    # Buys, Shares: 12 188000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3203
    # Sells, Shares: 31 283500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3126
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.51 (39.9% “buys”), DlyShts 133000 (28.2%)

     

    Compare the above with what we looked like through 14:00.

     

    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 31000, Vol 266800, AvTrSz: 8338
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3139
    # Buys, Shares: 2 8000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3263
    # Sells, Shares: 30 258800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3136
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:32.35 (3% “buys”), DlyShts N/A

     

    Sellers were definitely in again, supported by both daily short volume and the fact that when buyers came back in volume (204.7K, 76.7% of the volume prior to 14:01) price did not move up. Further, Jon Springer’s comment says a friend's order was filled below his bid and so fast it didn’t appear in the bid/ask on his screen.

     

    All this fits in with my prior thoughts that sellers would have to take what they could get as I felt that most of the buyers were full up. I don’t seriously believe that there are hundreds (or thousands?) more unsated buyers *at these price levels* that will soak up the remaining big-seller shares. Further, if my musings are correct, now that we’ve approached and hit $0.30, some retail buyers have gotten spooked and are exiting, adding to the selling pressure.

     

    This is presenting an opportunity now. I've been patiently (with some difficulty, I'll admit) awaiting this situation. Now it's down to timing and how hard do I want to struggle to get an absolute low. Being male, my typical response would be "not *that* hard".

     

    HardToLove
    3 Aug 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it is an opportunity. I had a 50K order filled @ .322 yesterday and maybe should have waited, but at least I have my desired position now and averaged under .40 for all.
    3 Aug 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "under .40 for all." Congrats.
    3 Aug 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    BR and the BK trustee would help themselves if they repeat what they seem to have done recently--ease off the gas and let the price recover a bit. Keep it in the 29 cent to 35 cent range.
    3 Aug 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's the rare seller who understands that his behavior can adversely impact the market price. It's even rarer for a seller to care whether he impacts the price. He wants his money and is frustrated that the market won't take him out faster instead of making him wait in line.
    3 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    "ARPA-E Announces $43 Million for Transformational Energy Storage Projects to Advance Electric Vehicle and Grid Technologies"

     

    August 2, 2012 - 10:34am

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NeE4bM

     

    "ARPA-E was launched in 2009 to seek out transformational, breakthrough technologies that are too risky for private-sector investment but have the potential to translate science into quantum leaps in energy technology, form the foundation for entirely new industries, and have large commercial impacts. Prior to today’s announcement, ARPA-E has attracted over 5,000 applications from research teams, which have resulted in approximately 180 groundbreaking projects worth nearly $500 million. More information on the program is available at http://bit.ly/NeE4bN. "

     

    Eaton and Ford are on the list, so I'm a little confused on the selection criteria.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    GE, Ford, University of Michigan in APRA-E project to develop a smart, miniaturized sensing system for EV batteries; smarter BMS for longer life

     

    http://bit.ly/T6HjpQ
    3 Aug 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OG6gWx
    3 Aug 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sales of electric Focus dip sharply
    Automaker sold 38 in July, less than half of June total

     

    "In seven months, Ford has sold 135 Focus EVs — including none in February, March or April."

     

    http://bit.ly/N82JjI

     

    Good luck TSLA.
    3 Aug 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Wonder when they are going to "pull the plug" on the Focus EV. And in WT's post above, the government is pouring more money into EV technology.
    3 Aug 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    metro, Well they will not as long as they are forced into "California Dreaming". Just like last time with the EV-1 it's mandated stupidity.

     

    At least Toyota is smart enough to use some other idiots money and engineering resources to cover the Cali. mandate until the market/tech. proves itself .

     

    http://bit.ly/QLmrUT
    3 Aug 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm appalled by your implication Toyota and Mercedes might be using Tesla powertrains out of a crassly commercial desire to save a couple billion dollars developing products for themselves. Everybody knows that they're just acknowledging their betters ;-)
    3 Aug 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "use some other idiots money". Too bad that idiot is us (the taxpayer).
    3 Aug 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    metro, Please. Say it isn't so.

     

    http://bit.ly/PseaRo

     

    Equals.

     

    http://bit.ly/PseaRq
    3 Aug 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Toyota and Daimler fell so far behind on seeing the future they had to buy from Tesla to save themselves. :-o
    3 Aug 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I actually just watched 'Revenge of the Electric Car' for the first time yesterday.

     

    It was almost honest at times.

     

    Musk is in way, way over his head and knows it. They were plagued with production issues with the original model and it will be the same with the next model. It's baked into their dna.

     

    Hubris explains the entire sad Tesla venture.

     

    Schadenfreude explains how I will feel when Tesla finally goes BK.

     

    D
    3 Aug 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    From:
    Alterenergy.com
    Tom Konrad

     

    August 03-2012
    While Tesla is Heading into the Valley of Death, Kandi has Already Crossed

     

    ...Although Petersen is relentlessly negative on EVs, he has a great depth of experience with launching new technologies, and investors ignore him at their peril.

     

    Note: At the end of the day, the experience can not be improvised.
    3 Aug 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, Greetings ! TK's article is quite positive about Kandi especially on "Kandi, which recently signed a deal to sell 20,000 EVs for a leasing program in the city of Hangzhou in Zheijiang Province. More details of that deal emerged yesterday, when it was said (unfortunately in Chinese PDF only) that the order would proceed with 1000 EVs per month for September to December 2012, and 2000 EVs per month from January to August 2013. "

     

    However, on reviewing the Chinese PDF, it is just an announcement ( cover one's behind ) made by the project leader, a battery manufacturer claiming that the project is just starting in an investigation stage. Whether the project will go forward is unknown.
    There are many unknowns which may cause the delay or cancellation of this project.
    1/. No Strategic agreement has been signed by the parties involved.
    2/. Hangzhou city government's commitment on subsidy and infra structure provision re parking, storage and charging stations.
    3/. Capital requirement is huge. If funding and timing of funding cannot be structured in a timely manner, project will be scrapped.4/. Project will use Li-ion batteries and due to the fact that technologies for both EV and Li-ion battery application on EV are not mature, there can be too many unknowns to meet the operation objectives. 5/. The inexperience of the parties involved in this rental business will demand extra capital and does involve unforeseen risks. Also, the project will be open for open bidding. Whether Kandi will be involved in the end is also unknown.
    All these indicates to me that the parties involved have no confidence on this project.
    There also is listed of numbers re projected sales and number of vehicles and batteries. Base on those, one can calculate that the projected cost of battery pack is over USD1700/set. For this project to work, it requires 4 sets of batteries per vehicle. (?)
    With all these unrelated facts, how did TK come to the conclusion that Kandi is out of the Valley of Death ? Mind boggling !
    3 Aug 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    Sarcasm alert:

     

    CBAK has been lately announcing new sales of batteries for EV and associated use at the rate of one a week, it seems like. But their stock is in near free-fall.

     

    I believe every article/news item I see coming out of China!
    3 Aug 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Still early but a first info.

     

    Kahuku Wind Farm Battery Fire Still Dangerous, Offline

     

    "Honolulu Fire Capt. Terry Seelig said an alarm sensor showed a buildup of heat, and video cameras recorded a fire starting in the battery banks."

     

    http://bit.ly/PLE6YM
    3 Aug 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've been hearing rumors that after the first inverter problem the inverter manufacturer installed surveillance cameras that caught everything on tape from the inside. It's good to see confirmation.
    3 Aug 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Sounds bad for Xtreme Power. In tournament poker its never bad when a competitor is knocked out by somebody else or self-destructs.
    3