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  • Axion Power Concentrator 134: Aug. 3, 2012 199 comments
    Aug 5, 2012 1:24 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Updated July 25th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta

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    From Bangwhiz August 2nd...

    Questions For The Axion Power 2nd Quarter Earnings Report and Conference Call

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    Over the last two years we've had a sequence of unfortunate events where big holders who *should* have been stable became persistent sellers. The list of significant stockholders and groups that emerged on the scene as persistent sellers is lengthy and includes:

    2010 sellers: FURSA; Liquidation Trust; and Small 2009 investors.

    2011-2012 sellers: Winner Estate; The Quercus Trust; Special Situations; Blackrock; and maybe Manatuck Hill

    Most of those sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. As near as I can tell, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around. I find the current volume spike particularly encouraging because it seems to be a final blow out of the last shares remaining in weak hands. Given the number of shares that have already traded this month I think there's a good chance that our persistent sellers will be out of stock before the mid-August conference call.

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close Aug. 3rd)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through close Aug. 3rd)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (199)
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  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    Springer. Were waiting...

     

    (oh shoot, I just messed it up didn't I?)
    3 Aug 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    LOL

     

    Thanks JAK... I needed that :-)
    3 Aug 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Making the Case for Smart Grid to Shave Peak Power

     

    http://bit.ly/QNdV7T
    3 Aug 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    JP, I'm still thrilled about your participation in the ELBC 13.

     

    Wondering if and how you'll broach that DCA should work long-term. Ford and BMW helped alert the automobile world to the need for a high DCA. Somebody's eventually gonna do the same for longevity, no?

     

    Of course I don't expect you to address this here and now. But I expect that many of us will be following the ELBC 13 with interest!
    3 Aug 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Its like the battery Olympics...
    3 Aug 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Some clues perhaps in the Q&A for Exides cc on the possibility of increased flooded sales. Exide is running their battery business flat out in NA. One cautionary statement is that they recently won a new retail customer in Pep Boys so some of that might be inventory building for them.

     

    One other note, Exide have very low exposure to the N.A. OE automotive market and recently lost an additional piece.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Aug 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I heard that Pep Boys is struggling right now. Hard to say how long that contract might continue to benefit (XIDE).

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I am a lifelong customer of auto parts stores so I make claim to some expertise re the industry. I suspect that all autoparts stores are suffering from low to negative profits. Here are some of my reasons.

     

    1) It is very competitive. There are autoparts stores everywhere and in some areas regional chains dominate. Here in Minnesota, O'Reillys is the dominant chain in the Twin Cities area. I think I have seen one or two Pep Boys in the past five years while driving around

     

    2) Government statistics show that Americans are driving fewer miles which means less need for maintenance nationwide.

     

    3) Each year cars are better built mechanically with longer warranties. That means less maintenance in general plus more repairs are done under warranty which means by dealers using factory parts not local mechanics who buy aftermarket parts.

     

    4) Non-parts items like accessaries, cleaners, polishes, etc., can be bought at any big box retailer, so there is not reason to make a special trip to an autoparts store.

     

    These are just off the top of my head but there may be other negative pressures on the industry. So the rumor you are passing on about Pep Boys may be valid.
    5 Aug 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    Osterix: I'm also a long-time "gearhead". Your considerations are spot-on, IMO. From what I've heard, Pep Boys has issues that go beyond just the competitive market and reduced use of after-market parts. I don't recall details ATM though.

     

    Regardless of Pep Boys, XIDE did become an approved Federated Auto Parts supplier a few years back, so they will benefit from any upturn by customers of that source. With average age of private-passenger vehicles hitting 11.5 years now, IIRC, there should be some upside as small shops that would likely be visited by owners of older vehicles often buy through such as Federated, Advance Auto, Autozone, ...

     

    But the Q becomes will the older vehicles just be driven into the ground and replaced with a newer older vehicle or repaired. This Q arises in my mind because of the dismal jobs situation and the inability of wage improvements to keep up with inflation.

     

    An exemplification of the trend is here. Note the article states most wage gains are due to increased overtime.

     

    http://bit.ly/NctWC1

     

    Price trends here.

     

    http://bpp.mit.edu/usa

     

    The inability of the common working-class wage to keep up is likely due to trends exemplified here (ignore the attempt to blame Obama).

     

    http://bit.ly/QDaWBQ

     

    BTW, that's a potentially interesting site - I've not had time to explore it fully yet.

     

    http://bit.ly/NctYtH

     

    HardToLove
    5 Aug 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    Pep Boys has long depended upon 2 primary markets:

     

    1. Do-it-yourselfers. We shade tree mechanics are increasingly discovering that modern vehicles are much more complex - require specialized tools and training - and break a lot less often. Within this group, Pep Boys also is a primary competitor at the lower middle class end of the market, so as they slowly lose the parts market due to the factors above, they also see their target customer group beset by outlandish rates of joblessness and destruction of their income.

     

    2. Maintenance and garage work - Pep Boys may actually see a modest boost in this area, imo, as they see customers move from turning wrenches themselves to hiring them to do this work. Unlike almost all other aftermarket part stores, Pep Boys also has a large garage function. In this case I ultimately expect the flow to be in their favor, as the value-added nature (vs simple part sales) becomes reinforced by more and more complex vehicles becoming the bulk of all cars and trucks on the road.

     

    Now, whether this will be a net positive for Exide is somewhere down the road. I believe the big box retailers like WalMart (plus Sams Club, Costco, KMart, Sears, etc) have a huge footprint in the after market battery business. Sears has their own tire and battery chain, on top of their retail stores and KMart which they own...

     

    Whoever is supplying those sellers of batteries will, I believe, find the gold mine rather than even the biggest part stores.
    5 Aug 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4114) | Send Message
     
    Re - Pep Boys
    http://yhoo.it/QvcRGc
    <
    Cid Wilson of Cabrera Capital Markets said in a client note that Pep Boys has been looking for someone to buy the company for more than seven years, saying Pep Boys' stock has underperformed over the past 10 years while most of its rivals' shares have appreciated.

     

    Pep Boys has faced competition from companies including AutoZone Inc., Advance Auto Parts Inc. and O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Pep Boys stock has dropped about 25 percent over the last decade, while AutoZone's shares have grown more than five times and Advance Auto Parts' stock has jumped approximately 60 percent.
    <
    5 Aug 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... I'm sure Exide doesn't care. Pep Boys still sells batteries even if it's not as many as they would like. No need to pass up the chance to make a sale.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz:

     

    Thank you for organizing the list of conference questions and everything you have done to organize and track information about Axion with great candor.

     

    My questions are a bit more mundane at the moment...
    For example, if you try to put your child to sleep multiple times but he doesn't fall asleep until 7:30 a.m., can you say: my son fell asleep at 7:30 a.m. last night.

     

    More honestly, right or wrong, I trust Axion's management at this juncture. I don't have a heap of questions about timelines or progress. I believe things are progressing, and that success will come.

     

    My only question would be how we could organize Axionista participation in the next round of financing.
    3 Aug 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Greetings to all.
    I think the following:
    Surely AXPW managers may have a lot things to report right now, but they prefer to wait until the three major vendors complete their work.
    I get the feeling that it is better to wait for good news to take effect on the share price.
    Have a happy weekend.
    Carlos.
    3 Aug 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4114) | Send Message
     
    "Surely AXPW managers may have a lot things to report right now, but they prefer to wait until the three major vendors complete their work."

     

    Carlos, you may be correct in your assessment. But, I really see no advantage to AXPW managers or shareholders in withholding news of positive developments unless a capital raise is imminent. Thus, I interpret absence of positive news as absence of positive developments. That is, I believe since the annual shareholder's meeting it has been toll contract business as usual and otherwise no news to negative news (such as non-compliance with the scheduled deliver of PbC battery system for Washington Navy Yard's Net Zero Energy Building).
    4 Aug 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    I found this survey:

     

    More than $129 billion has been taken out of U.S. stock funds in the past year. What are you doing with your money these days?

     

    Poll Choice Options
    -.Buying stocks
    -.Selling stocks
    -.Buying bonds or CDs
    -.Buying commodities
    -.Hoarding cash
    -.Alternative investments

     

    Carlos answers:
    -.Buying AXPW?
    Yes, Yes, Yes and more Yes.
    Good night.
    3 Aug 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    In this order I have been:

     

    Hoarding cash in anticipation of the correction (which came, just about on schedule)

     

    Buying commodity-based stocks (also selling same, I trade actively)

     

    Buying AXPW (but only in quantity after it set off my "ridiculously cheap" alarm.

     

    I have since hit the snooze button but the steady influx of more megafish means that...

     

    Indeed...

     

    I too can answer your last question: Yes, Yes, Yes and more Yes.
    3 Aug 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4114) | Send Message
     
    "More than $129 billion has been taken out of U.S. stock funds in the past year. "

     

    The poll options listed are lacking a choice that is quite significant to a lot of U.S. families - paying bills formerly met with cash flow from regular full time employment paychecks. Don't know for a fact that it applies in their case, but I strongly suspect that my daughter and her husband (with three small children) are drawing down financial assets to meet ongoing financial obligations. The husband lost his job in May.
    4 Aug 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Let's hope some of the 4M+ jobs claimed to have been created come your son-in-law's way quickly.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3366) | Send Message
     
    Amen. ISTM that everybody and their european brother are printing paper. And will for a while. Over time, all paper will be worth less (note space). Everything real, particularly anything that comes out of the ground, will be worth more of this paper. The main path to wealth will be from things that come out of the ground: oil, gas, metals, corn, timber, etc etc. So if our country really wants to heal itself, it best get digging...
    4 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4114) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Sure would be welcome development as my daughter is currently in a temporary, contract position that is only funded for a few more months.

     

    As the Morton Salt signage read, "When it rains, it pours." Less than a week after the husband's job disappeared, my daughter stopped for a traffic light and was rear-ended by an uninsured motorist who fled the scene. Repair is needed to enable locking the trunk.
    4 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4114) | Send Message
     
    " ISTM that everybody and their european brother are printing paper."

     

    Yep. And talk about taxing the middle class!
    4 Aug 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4114) | Send Message
     
    APH ... Thank you for your time and efforts in maintaining the APCs!
    4 Aug 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Greentechmedia weighs in on Xtreme's fire. Check out the comments ... for an Enron connection???!!!! (no, I haven't tracked down the agendas [if any] of the sources referenced)

     

    http://bit.ly/MF8TqM
    4 Aug 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the storage system works good as long as you can make it past the monthly fire repairs ( yes, I am a sarcastic Old Geezer). How can you figure an ROI on this type of buggy system? I'm glad I don't have to pay for the fire insurance (I can come up with more one liners). Is it UL approved? :-)
    4 Aug 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    Rumor has it that there are surveillance videos from inside the building as the batteries went off like roman candles and left them with 850,000 pounds of molten lead on the floor. I'm hoping that somebody decides to post them somewhere because it still strikes me as odd that the batteries would burn.
    4 Aug 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    SD: "Is it UL approved?".

     

    I assume "UL" stands for "UnLit" yet? :-))

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Ah! New jargon w/b "UnLighted"?
    4 Aug 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping that the fire has nothing to do with the Dynapower inverter and would speculate that there have been some phone conversations between Axion and Dynapower.
    4 Aug 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I think there will be plenty of finger pointing to go around. Mercifully the PbC is inverter agnostic.
    5 Aug 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    John,
    As the inverter in the recently linked Axion video is a Dynapower, just wondering if other inverters would provide all the same functions as the Dynapower is?
    5 Aug 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I'm the wrong person to answer inverter questions since I know what they do but am not entirely clear how they do it. DRich, on the other hand, has a lot of expertise in that area.
    5 Aug 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    Dynapower owned by Eaton?
    5 Aug 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1919) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    With Squiller going over to GTAT I imagine it would be an advantageous opportunity for him to orchestrate an acquisition of his old non-public company Powergenix. I imagine it is a quick, easy and cost effective way for private companies to bypass the expensive IPO process but still benefit from going public? Does it ever work that way?
    Be interesting to see.
    4 Aug 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I got a note from Squiller confirming that he was going to GTAT for the opportunity and there was no indication that they might try to buy out PowerGenix. Between their new partnerships with Enersys and the Chinese, it's unlikely that PowerGenix would be cheap or easy to buy.
    4 Aug 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Aug 3, 2012 - 12:50PM PT
    California’s pioneering energy storage mandate moves forward

     

    http://bit.ly/NaPGhC

     

    And who wants to identify the top 2 pics?

     

    " The new law (PDF) was a watered-down version of an initial effort to require the state’s investor-owned utilities to use energy storage. Instead, the law requires the commission to start the process of determining whether energy storage is necessary for the investor-owned utilities by March 1, 2012. The commission has until Oct. 1, 2013 to adopt an energy storage procurement target if it deems storage necessary. If that happens, utilities will have until the end of Dec. 2015 to meet the first target, and the end of 2020 for the second target. Municipal utilities and public utility districts, which aren’t regulated by the commission, also have to follow similar deadlines."
    4 Aug 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    "BYD batteries microgrid" per my cursor.
    5 Aug 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Check out radio show Q (PBS) Friday Aug 3rd.
    Interview with Ozzie Zehner on his new book 'Green Illusions'.
    Questions future of electric cars. Points toward efficiency gains for ICE, including SS, as most likely way forward for foreseeable future. Worth a listen, echoing much of what JP has been preaching for some time.

     

    Increasingly clear that micro-mild hybrids are coming, but increasingly unclear (to me) that Axion can join the party at any exciting scale. FWIW, and in the spirit of transparency, I trimmed my position considerably three months ago.

     

    Would consider re-entry at lower price point ( around $.22) that, baring the rabbit coming out of TG's hat, I think has more than an even chance of coming to us in light of pending survival financing in current climate.

     

    If there are three Axion pillars, road, rail and cube, then rail continues to view the program as some curiosity, advancing it glacially on a tiny scale; auto need to begin fleet testing (then add 18 months minimum to first design win (with the small matter of a manufacturing partner needed); cube retail is an unknown quantity, cube grid likely years away. And the final missing detail is the $30+ MM capex to make it all happen if the demand appears.

     

    Sincerely hope I'm wrong and love to have the more positive counter-arguments overwhelm my doubts.
    4 Aug 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The other thing I've been talking about for some time is the reality that there's a major disconnect between Axion's stock price and it's true value that's arisen solely from selling decisions that were made by big stockholders in the wake of personal disasters and management changes. Based on the numbers, that supply and demand imbalance can't outlive the summer. When conditions change, there will be an inflection point and from that point forward the new stock price chart will look very different from the old chart.

     

    The hard work of battery testing is done in the laboratory, rather than vehicles, because that's where testing conditions are most controllable and the abuse can be taken to levels you'd never see in a car. The sole purpose of the vehicle tests is to see how the battery functions as part of a complete system and identify any performance conflicts with other components. It is not a hugely time consuming process. If the PbC's performance is as superior as we believe, the automakers will find a way to implement the technology in a manner that won't over-stress Axion's ability to perform.

     

    The ink hadn't dried on the last set of checks before people started obsessing about the next round of financing. More money will be needed in the future, but it will be an end-of-year or early next year event. It is not a here and now issue based on the current stock price.
    5 Aug 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    I agree, John, which is why I completed my position last week. I will add more if we do drop again but I don't see that happening. We must certainly be getting close to the inflection point.

     

    I have been with AXPW for over three years now and it has been an interesting journey. Things have moved much slower than I would like but they have moved. All of the movement has been positve, IMO. Some PR from NS, BMW, etc. will send this skyward. I believe there are a lot of investors sitting on the fence waiting for the first big news.

     

    Call me "patiently waiting"
    5 Aug 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    In 2009 I would have sworn that none of the big blocks could move in the foreseeable future because the market activity couldn't possibly absorb them. The stock stabilized in early 2010 at 2x the December 2009 price and should have ramped slowly from there as BMW, NS and Axion's other business relationships became public knowledge. From my perspective, the stock should never have broken the $1.15 level and did so only because of irresponsible selling by big investors.

     

    I tend to believe that Axion would be a $3 stock if it were not for the unrelenting selling. There are many who will no doubt disagree. I'll be interested in seeing what happens when the pressure ends.
    5 Aug 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    anthlj

     

    "Check out radio show Q (PBS) Friday Aug 3rd.
    Interview with Ozzie Zehner on his new book 'Green Illusions'.
    Questions future of electric cars. ...Worth a listen, *****echoing much of what JP has been preaching for some time.*****"

     

    Thanks for the link...power of due diligence!
    If I didn't know better, I'd think I was actually listening to John!
    (content only...a different demeanor John...;-).....)
    5 Aug 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    There's also a very good Zehner interview on Berkley public radio.

     

    http://bit.ly/TaBmIH
    6 Aug 2012, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    At three bucks John I'm going to start looking for my private island to buy.
    6 Aug 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    Just remember to leave room in your budget for a PowerCube so that you don't have to run the generator 24/7.
    6 Aug 2012, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    OT: Good news, bad news (on how long)

     

    New electric transmission line from Sibling, Mo., to Nebraska City
    Approximately $400 Million to be invested in Northwest Missouri, Southeast Nebraska

     

    http://bit.ly/RnDmyE

     

    "a 150-190 mile 345 kV transmission line
    ...
    significant role in relieving congestion, improving reliability, and providing an additional gateway for wind energy to reach customers in Nebraska, Missouri and beyond as wind generation continues to expand in the region"

     

    Project Timeline: ( http://bit.ly/NbCwkq )

     

    Begin study area evaluation: Summer 2012

     

    Develop potential routes: Fall 2012

     

    Selection of final route: Summer 2013

     

    Environmental permits completed: Winter 2014

     

    Construction begin: Summer 2015

     

    Estimated in-service date: Summer 2017

     

    http://bit.ly/NbCwks
    5 Aug 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Also OT:

     

    "LiFeBatt names new CEO"
    http://bit.ly/Mlc4T0

     

    "Gerhardt formed Gerhardt Engineering after retiring from successful careers at Ingersoll Rand, Ford Motor Company and General Motors,"

     

    making a move on A123?

     

    ...

     

    "One of the first applications for these new cells will be used in an armored vehicle being manufactured in Danville by Hybrid Electric Vehicles ...

     

    "The initial order for 70 HEV battery packs will be going to Kuwait once they are built"
    5 Aug 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I correspond with Don Harmon of LiFeBatt on a regular basis. The vehicle they're supplying batteries for is basically a hybrid Hummer, and that's a great project for them. Between the problems at A123 and the problems at Valence, LiFeBatt's been getting a lot of calls from users who are worried about supply chain issues, but they're far too small to make a credible entrance at the top level. So for now at least, they're being very deliberate about not biting off more than they can chew, and that's a good thing.
    5 Aug 2012, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    Last night Don sent out this link to the manufacturer's website for the HEVs they plan to sell in the ME. – http://bit.ly/RUi4Vn
    7 Aug 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2276) | Send Message
     
    I am curious if anybody knows how the PowerCube would handle a serious solar magnetic storm event.

     

    http://reut.rs/OBOOBW?

     

    That rare super flare like the 1859 Carrington event could devastate the North American grid. Does the pc have some sort of built in surge protection against such an event?
    5 Aug 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    If the PC is connected to the grid, then serious grid transmitted voltage spikes could damage the inverter(s). The batteries themselves should be immune to damage other than, possibly, indirectly from an inverter failing.
    5 Aug 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    I agree with siliconhillbilly. My understanding is that the damage is primarily caused by massive currents induced in the earth-sized antenna that is our power grid. While anything connected to the grid may be damaged, the solar even won't directly damage most electronics.

     

    Of course since most electronics are plugged in, and even circuit breakers don't prevent damage when the currents and voltages can spike ridiculously high.
    6 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin ... The shipping container will act as a Faraday cage quite well and thus protect the equipment. The exception would be if the equipment was in direct contact with the exterior wall and/or the exterior was being used for ground. Neither condition is good design for more reasons than solar flares.
    5 Aug 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2294) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I think you overestimate the protection a shipping container would provide. Assuming the PowerCube is connected the grid, there would be hundreds of miles of distribution and transmission lines acting as an antenna to pick up the solar flare or nuclear explosion. My (limited) understanding is that the voltages would be way over the capacity of a circuit breaker to break without arcing close.

     

    Likelihood is low, and I do not stay awake worrying about it. However, it potentially could be devastating, along with a big asteroid hitting earth, etc.

     

    If the PowerCube was sitting idle, not connected to anything, perhaps waiting for shipment to a customer on top of a trailer, I agree with DRich that damage is unlikely.
    5 Aug 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Rick, not sure how they protect for your two events but wouldn't the lightning arrestors on the transmission lines offer some safety net for over voltage protection in these cases. Or is the level of energy that would be transmitted in these situations at a level that would reduce the effectiveness of these devices?
    5 Aug 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    The PowerCube is a secondary voltage device and requires transformers, with cutouts/fuses, to step down the voltage from the primary circuits. The primary circuits have circuit protection on many levels. I suppose the surge could jump the cutout and the transformer may survive but my guess would be an open circuit long before it reached the PowerCube...

     

    As for direct radiation on the PC, I am with DRich as long as there is a good grounding mat that serves the PC...
    5 Aug 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2294) | Send Message
     
    My (limited) understanding is that these types of events are many orders of magnitude stronger than any lightning strike. A lightning strike is a single point. During a major solar flare, the transmission grid would absorb radiation, like an antenna, continuously over the entire length of the interconnected grid. An analogy might be simultaneous lightning strikes every few hundred feet on every transmission and distribution line in the country, continuously for days. Circuit breakers and lightning arresters would fuse over, i.e., melt together.

     

    Of course smaller flares have smaller effects, and most solar flares have minimal impact. I am discussing a potential big kahuna.

     

    Corrections from the more knowledgable appreciated.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... I know nothing of the design on the PowerCubes's specific system, so I will not address that. I did work for Westinghouse and one the standard products were surge packs designed to be installed in switchyards (of which I've installed several) and they are designed to protect the yard transformers from the grid and anything short of direct lighting strikes. I'm sure this sort of protection is still standard and would be found in such things as grid tied wind farm storage facilities (of which I've never actually seen but it only makes sense high voltage engineers still use them).

     

    In the inverters I have a hand in manufacturing today, there is standard circuitry to protect incoming surge & under voltage in anything built to see the grid power. Now these are not high voltage because the designs are limited to input of 600 volts because the winding equipment doesn't handle bigger wire but I feel sure similar protective devices are employed by most (I can't say all because I know that is not the case) industrial manufacturers. I know an inverter that is poorly designed or intentionally built with cost in mind is fully capable of burning its installation to the ground. Been there ... done that when a school bus OEM had an inverter supplied by another vendor burn one to the frame.

     

    Bottom line, a properly designed PowerCube could be perfectly safe in a shipping container Faraday cage, in or out of operation, but it doesn't necessarily have to be. People often under design to keep costs down. The company I work at kind of keeps the motto of "You can pay me now or you can pay later". In 7 years, I've seen 1 inverter's protective circuit blown by grid power on a customer's Time Square signage so I know what's possible on the low voltage side.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2294) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I assume (hope) the Power Cube is designed to resist ordinary surges and lightning strikes. If it is appropriately engineered, I completely agree with you. My comments were responding to the possibility of a huge solar flare, which has not happened during the Electricity Epoch, and may not ever happen.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... I totally agree that a solar flare event is remote but I do work with a "Doomsday Prepper" and standard design around the shop takes such things into account. It's why the inverters are not allowed to run any hotter than you could pick up with your hands and protected from shorts & surges to 1/10th of a cycle. Probably why in 25 years less than a dozen have ever failed but there are often complaints about how much they cost everytime a customer reorders more.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2117) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rick,
    I took your explanation of the grid surge from a large solar flare to be similar to an EMP effect. In which case not much would matter unless the PC was hooked up to solar cells that weren't working as any unprotected electrical circuit would be damaged (fried). Having a working PC when nothing is left of the grid doesn't mean much.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys.

     

    I use to follow Hughes / Loral Space and Communications and I know their satellites are hardened for the solar events. Also depending on the position of their satellites and the timing/magnitude of solar flares with their resulting energy streaming toward the Earth, they will turn their solar panels to reduce exposure. I think the last satellite lost due to one of these events was Japanese.

     

    Of coarse sats have it bad because they have little or no shelter from the earths atmosphere depending on their orbit.

     

    Maybe one's coming and we should all celebrate the event with Maya. :)

     

    http://bit.ly/O0xLe5
    5 Aug 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    You guys peaked my curiosity so I did a little research. As it turns out the transformers do NOT survive as they turn into a heap of slag. Actually, it appears they turn into protection equipment (to some degree). The question becomes how big of a surge was seen on the secondary coil before the primary coil fried and can the inverter protection handle it. I think it probably can unless a connection is made between the two coils.

     

    Anyway, for your reading pleasure...

     

    http://bit.ly/Ms64Os
    6 Aug 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    OK, I gotta say it: There is only one technology I know of that can handle high voltage spikes without melting down and shorting out the system. It is sold by American Superconductor (or an affiliate) and uses the physics of high temperature superconducting materials to switch from zero resistance to a finite (current limiting) resistance when the current flow exceeds a design threshold. It is the equivalent of opening a non-arcing switch very quickly.

     

    The high voltage drop produced across this switch can then be redirected by conventional arc type over-voltage suppressors.

     

    These over-current limiters are low volume and mostly custom today. No one in the power distribution business seems willing to pay the freight to prevent serious faults from cascading across networks. Apparently it doesn't happen often enough to pay for the protection.

     

    And yes, I STILL own AMSC stock and my timing has been bad :-(
    6 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    National Geographic had a similar article on solar flares in a recent issue.
    6 Aug 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Solar storm of 1859. If we had then what we have now........

     

    http://bit.ly/Jt1H3Z
    6 Aug 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2276) | Send Message
     
    Wow. Looks like my question opened a can of worms.

     

    I still don't really understand how the PowerCube would cope with the transient line voltage surge induced by a geomagnetic storm, but we are getting some thoughtful discussion. Thanks, folks.

     

    Here is another useful paper:

     

    http://bit.ly/NXLiWN
    6 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2294) | Send Message
     
    Not really a can of worms, SM. If we get hit by a major solar storm, we are cooked and it doesn't really matter if Power Cubes survive. It would be nice if they survive the first week, but they will be totally useless in a few weeks when all the emergency generators have used all their fuel. Over 50% of the urban population will die within a few months. No electricity means, within a few weeks:

     

    - no potable water (no chlorine or pumps) (Even though NYC says 95% of the water is delivered by gravity, 100% of the water flow is controlled by electricity. NYC water department has 6,000 employees.)
    - no food
    - no transportation (except for a few horses, unless they starve, too)
    - no sanitation, garbage collection, or corpse disposal (imagine 5 million corpses in NYC)
    - no fire department (with millions trying to keep warm with fires )
    - no healthcare or medicines (hospital generators out of fuel, medical equipment fried, no deliveries)

     

    The article you cited is extremely optimistic, as it looks out only for a few days. The problem of transportation is not just "no electricity at gas stations". There will not be any tankers, refineries, or pipelines functioning - they all need electricity. How does one repair all the fried control circuits at a refinery if parts are not available? Once the fuel in tanks is burned, there is no replacement.

     

    On the other hand, it is an unlikely event (we hope). We do cope with small solar storms all the time.

     

    Now, back to our original programming...
    6 Aug 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    It would seem with the scenario you describe there would be great benefit of having many many cans of worms, for house cleaning!
    6 Aug 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1082) | Send Message
     
    DRich seems right to my sniff test. also, natural major magnetic events are predictable thanks to the distance between sun and earth. in other words, removing the thing from the antenna is possible if your main concern is a solar flare.

     

    a non-nuclear electromagnetic bomb, a nuke, or a direct lightning strike are rare events that are harder to protect from but i doubt anyone would buy insurance against those events either.

     

    most of these events are globally catastrophic events and i don't think AXPW tech will be on anyone's mind, but maybe i just lack the typical axionista focus.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have updated the graphs in the header to reflect Friday's close.
    5 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 8/3/2012 EOD stuff copied from my instablog.
    # Trds: 41 MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 256566, AvTrSz: 6258
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3040
    # Buys, Shares: 16 55250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3145
    # Sells, Shares: 25 201316, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3011
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.64 (21.5% “buys”), DlyShts 0 (0.00%)

     

    Notable today is the lack of any FINRA-reported daily shorts sales. As I’ve noted previously, the percentages have been generally trending lower recently and the 10-day average has crossed below the 25 and 50-day averages and is attacking the 100-day now. For comparison, the 10, 25, 50, and 100 day averages on 7/24 were 35.57%, 29.55%, 27.78%, and 22.64% respectively while today they are 22.99%, 27.07%, 26.56%, and 22.58%.

     

    We know the Mega-C shares are already at a brokerage. We don’t know which one and we don’t know if sales from there would flow quickly to market-makers’ control or not (resulting in reported short sales). Based on the previous observations we (I?) suspected that the brokerage doesn’t have the ability to place the shares with the market-maker at or prior to the sale. Their sell orders would generally result in FINRA-reported shorts.

     

    We know Blackrock holds certificates that must be converted and will generate short sales when the sell order is executed. Quercus, also in certificates, reports regularly. I believe the zero short sales suggests that BR and Quercus were not in the market today.

     

    All this suggests several scenarios.

     

    The big sellers may be taking a break to let price recover some. This seems unlikely as, IIRC, the last time we thought this might be the case it didn’t last long or rise much before the sellers were back. It seems more likely, to me, that they are just executing some pre-planned selling sequence and today was one of the days that were not on the schedule. This may account for (some of?) the “choppiness” seen on my charts in the short sales.

     

    The action may strongly support JP’s estimation of the shares held by the big sellers being rapidly depleted. I think this highly likely and, if human nature is what I think it is, as the number of shares to be dumped approaches the end they will be less stringent about price.

     

    Last, a low percentage could just be shares backing prior sell orders flowing into the market-makers, who might have covered some of their short positions when prices were advantageous. I suspect this behavior is at least a fairly strong component in the trend because of the downward trend in price – MMs sell short in response to sell orders, that pushes price down some small percentage (check the buy:sell trend the last week or so on my experimental charts), the MM covers the shorts at a lower price (profit already in hand then) and the new incoming shares backing prior sell orders are “free” in that they only need to be sold at a price that maintains the profit garnered (or doesn’t reduce it much). The MMs may have purchased the incoming shares at a price below the short sale *and* the covering buy price. No way to know.

     

    This scenario seems also to be supported by the “choppiness” we’ve seen in the short sales.

     

    Note that the recent low of $0.29 on 7/19 was accompanied by a lower short sales percentage following a relatively higher one on 7/18. A similar pattern is seen 7/16-7/17 as price moves downward. This is one of the factors making me think the market-maker portfolio position has a lot to do with what’s going on.

     

    Although I’m loathe to do it, the configuration of today’s “bursts” of trades encourages me to examine what the real average trade size might be. Without going into detail, other than noting I considered time proximity, buy or sell and price proximity, I wouldn’t be surprised if today’s real trades were 31 at an average trade size of 8,276. This would affect the statistics for number of buys and sells and their respective average prices but that seems getting a bit too fine-grained to me, so I won’t go there.

     

    As I suggested previously, this appeared to be an opportunity and folks took advantage as the sellers showed little or no discipline. We opened the day at $0.32, dropped as low as $0.30 by the thirteenth trade (10:27) and struggled to get back to near $0.32 briefly around 13:00 and couldn’t hold it, dropping immediately back to $0.31. All of today’s larger trades were sells in the $0.30 area. Congrats to those that took advantage.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Aug 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    My running estimate has Quercus down to 26,300 shares, which might be on the high side but is unlikely to be on the low side. A lot of the selling activity over the last couple days reflects that "get it done" impatience we see when a seller like the bankruptcy trustee is getting down to the last few share. It would not surprise me to see them both out of the game sometime next week. With a precipitous decline on the supply side, there aren't many options unless you figure that the Axionistas will be thrilled to step into the breach and sell at bargain basement prices.
    5 Aug 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    John, or anyone else with a better memory than myself,
    IIRC, In August we will see a form from BR that indicates how many shares of AXPW that they still own. Do I recall that correctly?
    5 Aug 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I've never been able to find a quarterly holdings report from Blackrock or Manatuck Hill that mentions their Axion position. While some funds like Special Sits identify all their holdings because its easier, they're only required to identify securities that trade on a national securities exchange like the Amex, Nasdaq or NYSE.

     

    We know very little about what Blackrock has done or plans to do. In February 2011 they reported ownership of 7.15 million shares at 12/31/10 (http://1.usa.gov/yxCVjO); in February 2012 they reported ownership of 6.1 million shares at 12/31/11 (http://1.usa.gov/yZpUiZ) and in May 2012 they reported ownership of 5.2 million shares at 3/31/12.

     

    The only thing those reports tell us is that Blackrock sold about 900,000 shares during 2011 and it sold another 900,000 shares in Q1 of 2012. Based on those two data points, several people jumped to the conclusion that Blackrock was selling their entire position. I'm not convinced the assumption is valid, but for purposes of a "worst case" supply and demand analysis it's probably wise.

     

    Now that Blackrock is not a 5% holder, it has no obligation to file additional Form 13G reports in the future so they've officially gone dark. That doesn't mean that they have sold. It just means we don't know.
    6 Aug 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    I posted this on Friday but it seems to have disappeared.

     

    Sorry if someone else posted it.

     

    GT Advanced Technologies appoints Dan Squiller and Vikram Singh in two senior roles

     

    http://bit.ly/N7O7Ti
    5 Aug 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    Interesting sub-plot in the XIDE http://bit.ly/RIttr7 conf. call was the effort to re-focus the business to achieve 100% recapture of sold lead cores. If read right, this is one of the perks of the Pep Boys deal. Has AXPW mentioned anything along these lines?

     

    OT - 1) Neanderthals vs. Cro-mags; 2) Saber Tooth enjoys inviting both to lunch when available; 3) Neanderthals start sashaying around jungle in bright animal skins borrowed from wife; get lion's share of lunch invites; 4) Cro-mags start dating Neanderthal widows; 5) No more Neanderthals. As Darwin would say, its just a theory.
    5 Aug 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    Raquel Welch in 1,000,000 BC is pretty representative of the typical Neanderthal female so your theory probably has a lot of merit.
    5 Aug 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    The grant awarded to AXION, per their press release, is rather ambiguous/confusing for me.

     

    http://bit.ly/OT0se6

     

    The PR points to the LAB having shortcomings, which I do understand, however, it also suggests that the LAB is not a good fit for the two battery system AXION will report on.

     

    "...Since the lead acid battery fails to be an adequate solution where charge acceptance/fast rate of re-charge is required, LAB's are not the answer to the dual battery approach. What Axion feels is the answer, and what the above award is designed to demonstrate, is that the PbC battery and PbC technology, will provide a cost effective solution to at least part, if not all, of the dual battery proposition. ..."

     

    If that is the case would this two battery system use two PbC's or a PbC and some other chemistry? Would one or both of these batteries be nominal twelve volt batteries, two different voltages, or some combination of higher voltages (16, 24, 32, 42, or 48 volt)?

     

    Without the LAB or AGM (which is a LAB), what will start the vehicle, especially after parking it at the airport for a 10 day trip in winter.

     

    What is it that AXION will study or propose with this grant?
    5 Aug 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    In a stop start duty cycle, the energy needed to re-start the engine is about 10% of the energy required to carry the accessory loads during the engine-off interval.

     

    The proposed dual battery solution will use a small lead-acid battery that's dedicated to restarting the engine and a larger PbC that's responsible for carrying all of the accessory loads.
    6 Aug 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    That is what I always understood to be the intent, but when the press release states that LAB is not suitable for the two battery system there is much room for confusion. The format you have described would have a LAB as 1/2 of the two battery system. Further, the PR eludes to the possibility that the PbC might be good for all the two battery proposition.

     

    Finally, you state the PbC will be "larger", which goes to the second part of my earlier question. Is there any word on the optimal design that AXION would propose for the two battery solution. Would the PbC be a 'larger' 12V or would they being leaning towards 16V or the rumored 48V strategy?
    (NOTE: I first bought AXION a couple years ago, still holding, and have been following most of the speculation/posts/arti... since. I am now looking for new info, and understand if such info is not available or privileged.) Thanks
    6 Aug 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The PbC white paper on Axion's website talks about their thinking for a two battery system. It uses a 12-volt - 40 Ah flooded battery for the starter and a 16-volt PbC for the hotel loads. The reason for using a 16-volt PbC that will be kept at an 80% state of charge and deliver the proper operating voltages for the accessories. Beyond what they've said publicly, I'm as much in the dark as anybody else.

     

    I hope to learn a lot more at the upcoming ELBC in Paris, but that's not till the end of September.
    7 Aug 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Something to read:

     

    AXION POWER: First Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call
    May 15, 2012/11:00 a.m. EDT

     

    http://bit.ly/NVYThm

     

    Good Night:
    Carlos
    5 Aug 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    If the 48 volt architecture for vehicle electrical systems were to go forward, how would the PbC fare in such a design. I would think that such system would play well to some of the PbC's characteristics/streng... I know that JP suggests that such an upgrade would be relatively easy to manufacture, though I am skeptical that increasing the voltage would entail a linear reduction in the size of each cell without other energy considerations. A 12v group 24 vs. grp 27 vs. grp 39 battery each have very different cell sizes and energy capacities. I'm sure that I probably confused what he was saying but i'm pretty confident that final cell size is more related to several battery specifications (desired attributes) not just group size.
    Has AXION determined if the self discharge rate would change with a larger (48V) battery from that found with the HT30, that seems to be the single battery configuration that is used for comparison over and over here on the PC?
    5 Aug 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    One of the legacy products Axion bought as part of the New Castle acquisition was a series of 16-volt racing batteries that were made in standard 12-volt sizes. The case was simply divided into eight cells that were slightly narrower. The energy of the battery remained unchanged even though the voltage was higher. Axion could build a 48-volt–4 kWh system today using four Group 27 cases that were configured for 12-volts each. It could also build a 48-volt–3 kWh system today using three Group 27 cases that were configured for 16-volts each.

     

    When an automaker decides that they want a 48-volt system, they'll specify the total energy in kWh they need the system to deliver. That specification will control the overall size of the battery. From that point it's pretty much a matter of breaking the volume into 24 cells and laying out the inter-cell and inter-battery connections.
    6 Aug 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • D_Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Advanced Batteries for Utility Scale Energy Storage from Pike Research
    http://bit.ly/QvfKXN
    Under Key Industry Players, Advanced Lead Acid, the table of contents lists only Xtreme Power

     

    Given the fires in Hawaii, I'm hoping the bio-carbon PbC does not get lumped together with Xtreme Power in anyone's mind. (On the other hand, Xtreme Power has been a definite leader in utility-scale grid storage, something Axion cannot say.)
    5 Aug 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    While Xtreme Power is very vague about their chemistry, it's clearly not straight lead-acid. They're building some sort of bi-polar dry cell, which is an entirely different beast, and apparently more flammable. I'm sure questions will be asked and answered, but there's no reason to believe that any *true* lead-acid battery presents a comparable fire risk.
    6 Aug 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    A plutonium powered land rover!
    No charging ever!! OK maybe new power pant ever 10 years or so.
    It even has lasers!

     

    How cool is that?
    Unfortunately the only one is on Mars...always problems.
    I wonder if they built 2 just in case?
    :-))
    6 Aug 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Reminds me of some of the dreams that came about as a result of the nuclear age. Unfortunately the reality of what is createdbesides energy as a result of fission reactions and human nature came into play. Maybe thorium will end up being a better fuel to resolve some of these issues.

     

    Or the "dream" of cold fusion.

     

    PS Hopefully the martians don't retaliate when they get irradiated.
    6 Aug 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I can't see the Martians retaliating unless Curiosity really does kill the cat.
    6 Aug 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    All intelligent life forms are curious. And it does kill some of them but it's better than the alternative.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nxc4j1
    6 Aug 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Interesting opening ...

     

    UBSS had a 50K bid at .31 for quite a while, but they ended up
    giving up and grabbing a combined 50K at .3199 and .32.

     

    Now at 10K@.3012 by 10K@.320

     

    Actually there's at least 50K bidding at .301 or better.

     

    Wonder how long we'll stand off here ...
    6 Aug 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    With a 35K bid coming from this Axionista ...
    6 Aug 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    foolcd, I see your bid again. You've got even more company today--almost 200k shares bid from 30 to 31 cents. We'll see how motivated the sellers are.
    7 Aug 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    A little info. on the Chinese battery industry. Continuation of the "cleaning up your act" theme.

     

    "Battery suppliers pursue 'green' trend, output expansion"

     

    http://bit.ly/Mo0bfh
    6 Aug 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Do we care about these guys (Envision Solar) any more?

     

    http://bit.ly/NXUU3S
    6 Aug 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I suspect that to the current equity holders they are toast. So, at a minimum, we should hope not to emulate them in that regard.
    6 Aug 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    I was wondering from a potential PbC sales standpoint.
    6 Aug 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Always possible but given where Envision is now it's a long shot and probably not a long term relationship anyway.

     

    BTW, If I'm not mistaken GE had put some money into Envision. So maybe that would put them first in line for a long shot......round II.
    6 Aug 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    The only use I can see for the expensive "solar tree" in the sunny desert is to shade the high dollar autos and supply electricity to run an electric air cooler to keep the interiors of the fancy cars cool until their owners return. Cost no object.

     

    Sliding into the seat of a car, parked outside, that is 75 degrees inside. Now that is luxury!
    6 Aug 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, The Japanese toyed with adding solar to a few of their models. Not enough energy to run AC but enough to run a blower to keep the interior closer to the exterior ambient temperature.

     

    With more distant remote start we are all kings -N- queens if we want to burn the fuel. Far cheaper than a solar panel. Or use the solar panel to charge the car and turn on the AC from a more remote point. You'll be cool as a cucumber.
    6 Aug 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    My point was that the Envision Solar Tree was a very expensive sun shade. Still, electric refrigeration WOULD work ;-)
    6 Aug 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    "My point was that the Envision Solar Tree was a very expensive sun shade."

     

    You can say that again.

     

    For me it's going to be interesting to see what happens after the first major wind events happen in some of these areas that they are installing these panels in (entire industry not just Envision). Not only from the stresses imparted on them but also, in the case of dry areas, from them getting sand blasted.

     

    I worked for a company that was trying to add rain sensing to the class 8 rig market and one of the things that killed the deal was the fact that the windshields got replaced at some frequency due to all the particles hitting the glass. The sensor could not be transferred as designed so a new one would be required. Too expensive.

     

    Anyway, I'd look into the cost of insurance for sure before I bought these in certain regions.
    6 Aug 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    I've been dubious about Envision since last year when I saw one of their videos from a quarterly conference call and the CEO spoke about the Axion installation while showing photos of it, but never mentioned it was a demonstration project. He made a joke about it was difficult to get the Axion employees to work because they just wanted to look out the window at the structure.

     

    The following is from the "product installations" tab from their website and says that the Axion project is a "comprehensive demonstration of the hyper-convergence of....". but does not state clearly that it is a demonstration project with a partner.

     

    Maybe I'm wrong about them, but after I saw that conference call video, I've been a little uneasy. Looking at their financials and latest 10Q, I wouldn't buy stock; though they are claiming future projects and partnerships..

     

    "Envision Solar deployed two Solar Tree structures with SunCharge™ Column Integrated electric-vehicle (EV) charging systems at Axion Power International’s facility in Western Pennsylvania. One of the Solar Trees features Envision’s patent-pending and unique integrated EnvisionTrak™ dual synchronous sun tracking system which enables the Solar Tree to track the sun without swinging into the drive aisles. Axion takes advantage of the Solar Tree® arrays to charge Electric Vehicles during the day, with any excess generated electricity being fed into their patented Power Cube™ storage system which can be used for peak shaving or powering the facility’s EV chargers and street and parking lights at night. This project represents a comprehensive demonstration of the hyper-convergence of efficient clean energy generation, local energy storage, smart-grid & building infrastructure, and plug-in hybrid & electric vehicle charging."
    6 Aug 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    The solar trees are located outside the building with the Axion offices and the electrode assembly line. In the hallway just inside the front doors, there is a display that shows the amount of energy the solar trees had generated both that day and total. I remember looking at the number, which I believed was the cumulative amount of power generated (it could have been year to date but my impression was since inception) and thinking that it was ridiculously low and that there was no way the project could ever pay back its cost.

     

    Maybe there's a good story to tell from the storage side, but overall, I was very disappointed.
    6 Aug 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (768) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, it was on the order of 26 mwh over it's lifetime so far; and at 10 cents/kwh, didn't that work out to about $2,600?
    7 Aug 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    Yes, that sounds right. Thanks!
    7 Aug 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Do you recall, Was anyone parked under them to add value to the proposition?
    7 Aug 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (656) | Send Message
     
    Interesting design for retrofitting regular car with small electric motors to assist ICE at city driving speeds.

     

    Student hybrid car project could bring millions to Tennessee university

     

    http://fxn.ws/MpmAbS
    6 Aug 2012, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Viridity to get $15mil investment from Mitsui:

     

    http://bit.ly/RvgMEy

     

    http://bit.ly/RvgMEz
    7 Aug 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The Mitsui investment gives Viridity a market capitalization of $100 million and shows just how badly Axion's market value has been distorted by two years of relentless selling. Viridity is a fine company with some bright executives that know the power market. It is not 300% more valuable than Axion, which had a market cap of $27.4 million at the close.
    7 Aug 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    I hope Viridity is (still) representing the PbC well.

     

    Nit--AXPW mkt cap is approx. $36mil ($.32 x 113mil shares o/s; Yahoo Finance still hasn't updated their share count to reflect the 2/3/2012 placement). Either way, still dirt cheap.
    7 Aug 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    That was an important nit. Thanks for the catch.

     

    It does show, however, just how deep the distortion can get over time.
    7 Aug 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3366) | Send Message
     
    Are the Quercus warrants included in that calculation? I mean hey, three million bucks is three million bucks! ;)
    7 Aug 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    And Viridity's valuation has a private company discount to boot.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The Quercus warrants don't get counted in market capitalization unless they're in the money. When that happens, market cap will increase by the net spread between the exercise price and the market price.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Hey 48, no. Just the current mkt cap. You may be thinking of the calc for the 10% ownership SEC reporting rule. And doesn't Q have 10mil warrants at 75 cents?
    7 Aug 2012, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3366) | Send Message
     
    Thank you both gents. I just had that bit of doubt as to whether or not the warrants were included in the total diluted(?) share count. I think I got it now, which is they aren't, not until (if ever) they're exercised... (the 3 mil was just a sloppy quip 10million x $0.32 = ~3 meelion dollars...)
    7 Aug 2012, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    It's an important point. If the stock price was $2 instead of $0.32, you'd need to add $12.5 million to the market cap (10 million x ($2-$.75)) to reflect the intrinsic value of the warrants.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Apologies, but I personally find this type of post a tad irksome and unworthy of your high standards.

     

    Something is worth only what someone is prepared to pay for it. The facts indicate that today Viridity is worth 3 x more than AXPW because someone has slapped down the cash to prove it. There is not a soul on this planet who would today pay the equivalent of a $100M valuation for a single share of AXPW. Not one.

     

    With that type of money Mitsui could have helped themselves to 50% of AXPW. They didn't.

     

    end rant
    7 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I disagree with every point you've made, but figure some arguments simply aren't worth the effort.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    Drove a 2009 Hyundai with start/stop yesterday. It worked seamlessly and the owner told me she has had no problems with the system. I'm speculating through knowing her commute route along the edge of Lisbon, that the system probably only has two to four start/stop potential events per day on average - and as she goes to work early, the start/stop may never kick in.

     

    We were driving around the suburbs of Lisbon yesterday and it really never had the opportunity to engage. Most stops were quick at a stop sign and with first gear engaged. For the stop/start to engage,the car must be in neutral with the clutch disengaged.

     

    After my empirical study of one vehicle and one driver, I've reached the following conclusions:

     

    1. Many drivers don't live in the city and will not notice any decrease in performance as the stop/start is not used heavily and therefore would not report/experience problems with the battery.

     

    2. Unless driving in congestion and heavy traffic, the fuel savings would be negligible.

     

    She has offered to let me perform an extended test where I would use a version of the Ford/BMW protocol - but boy that is a loaded offer.
    7 Aug 2012, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    My experience with Portuguese women is limited to a couple who've worked for me as housekeepers. They were both stunning, which could be very dangerous for a middle-aged neanderthal. In my case I've always figured it would be a lot like a dog chasing a pick-up truck. What's the poor fellow going to do it he ever gets ahold of the bumper?
    7 Aug 2012, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    Northern European actually.
    7 Aug 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The fair haired versions are every bit as dangerous.
    7 Aug 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    I googled "Axion" this morning for past 24 hours and came up with this article which is from 2010. I found the graph from Sandia very interesting and note that Ultrabattery and Li-FeP04 is included in the study dating back to 2008. The Li-FeP04 is the chemistry that LifeBatt uses.

     

    http://bit.ly/Riu5qa

     

    The full study and conclusions can be found at Sandia at:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Nyv8NJ
    7 Aug 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The full original story can be found right here on SA.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...?
    7 Aug 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    I'm convinced that life is much simpler with just a dog for company.
    7 Aug 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    "The full original story can be found right here on SA."
    Apologize for having missed that.
    7 Aug 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    I'm mortally wounded that you didn't recognize the writing style.
    7 Aug 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Could be because you were wearing your hat at that time!

     

    Oh, That's right. Writing style. Never mind.

     

    See I have been around awhile. ;-)
    7 Aug 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    I haven't had the chance to drive a start/stop system yet, but I think my commute would be the exact opposite. I only live about 3 miles from my place of work, however, I do need to drop off my kids at their daycare on the way (so make it 4.5 miles). There are 15 stoplights between our house, daycare, and my parking lot at work and I probably have to stop at no less than 9 of them on any given commute. So for someone like me, start/stop makes a lot of sense. In my case, it's not that I live in a big city with lots of heavy traffic, but just in an area that has a lot of stoplights that aren't synchronized. Now what that would save me on gas, I have no idea, since I drive a small car anyway, but I would like the option of not having my car spewing exhaust during all those stops for no good reason. IMHO
    7 Aug 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    My latest is here - http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Aug 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2623) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OKwGZJ

     

    Interesting power point on ESS market using some Sandia numbers.
    7 Aug 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan,

     

    Seems lead/advanced lead carbon is an unmentionable. Or at least off the radar for the writers.
    7 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2623) | Send Message
     
    Lol, I was going to make a comment as to that, but it depressed me so I went back to the paper I'm working on.
    7 Aug 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    That's a pretty presentation, albeit quite self serving for the fine folks at KEPCO. I especially like the "Research Institute" legitimizing. Seems awfully powerful!
    7 Aug 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    I always like Powerpoints like this for Li-ion batteries. They show where the costs are now, and then show this magical window in the future (that seems to keep moving further and further into the future) where the price is going to come down to make them price competitive. And they assume that companies like A123 are going to be able to stay alive for another 5-8 years until that magic happens.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    That's OK. I'll be the bad guy.

     

    You go back to increasing productivity. :)

     

    Now back to watching exciting fast moving action like Olympic beach volleyball and the Axion trading frenzy.
    7 Aug 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13491) | Send Message
     
    For the REAL excitement in Olympic sport, don't miss dressage...

     

    And no, your tv is not broken, if you turn up your sound to the "deafen" level, you will detect the gentle crunching sound of the horse walking on sand.

     

    Be sure to turn the volume up. The soft sound of a horse walking is the most exciting part...
    7 Aug 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Both men's teams are out. Maybe we never shoulda let the other countries in on the fun. Or just take over soccer, like our women's team.
    7 Aug 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Maybe by Rio, there'll be an Olympics of Wii.
    7 Aug 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    "Horse Ballet" without the background music. If only they hadn't taken away the fox and the guns. Now dat dar is some goooood watchin.

     

    Now back to waiting for another 500 share lure or another whooping 2k share block. The excitement never ends.

     

    Good thing we're turtles. ;)
    7 Aug 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Can't introduce Wii to the Olympics. Everyone would have to participate from their home! Think of the social disruption. A tear in the fabric of time. The Wii-mote Olympics?

     

    Anyway, Back to business. Was that another big trade that just went through? At least with the big players exiting we had some bumps and scrapes occurring at the entrance to the pay window.
    7 Aug 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Careful, the victory of your women's soccer team is a bit of a touchy subject for us Canadians. That victory yesterday should probably have an asterisk next to it.

     

    D
    7 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    *only 2 yrs until curling.

     

    8^)
    7 Aug 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    Hey, curling is a great sport! I remember as a kid watching it on the local cable station. There was nothing on TV in the evenings on Saturday, so the local station would show curling events from Wisconsin. What's better than ice bowling with a rock and brooms! ;-) Oh, and one always assumes you have a cooler nearby with lots of beer in it.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Ya hey, it's inside the ice shack. 24 Hubers for five dolla. ;-P
    7 Aug 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Big Disagreement on Where Lithium-ion Batteries are Headed

     

    http://bit.ly/MhA3XW
    7 Aug 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    My favorite from the article.

     

    "There will be a huge take-off in sales when most people think the range of an affordable pure electric car is "adequate". Nobody knows that figure for widely acceptable range partly because there is almost no statistical correlation between how people respond to questionnaires and what they then do."
    7 Aug 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2294) | Send Message
     
    "and what they then do."

     

    Well, there have been trillions of dollars spent in the last 50 years for a billion vehicles with 200+ mile range and 10 minute refills. Every single ICE vehicle would have been cheaper with a smaller fuel tank.

     

    Global EV fleet is maybe 10 or 20 thousand?

     

    Not sure you really need a questionnaire.
    7 Aug 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    I liked this one:

     

    "[I]f huge leaps in energy density can be achieved at an acceptable price, then a huge jump in electric vehicle sales may be achieved."

     

    That is one big 'if'.

     

    And if we can find a way to make jet-packs safe and cheap then we won't need electric vehicles.

     

    See how my unrealistic fantasy trumps their unrealistic fantasy?

     

    D
    7 Aug 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh, But the technology has not and will not be static. And the transition will not be digital. So where are the sweet spots? More range? Faster charge? Smaller battery with faster charge? Smaller battery and far more charge points? Small battery and 5 minute swap (Better Place)? More carrot or more stick? What combinations? More consumer education? And, and, and......

     

    We do know that right now they appear not to have figured it out or they have but have not implemented well.

     

    And the ICE guys are not standing still waiting for their demise.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/N0sxCh
    7 Aug 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    "If we had some eggs we could have eggs and ham, if we had some ham."

     

    -- Groucho Marx
    7 Aug 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    I liked the comment at the end that basically says that Toyota is actively buying up and applying for a ton of patents in this field and basically hopes to eventually take control of battery production for it's own EVs and crush all the little start-ups in its path.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    I was over on the Tesla message board earlier (it's fun to read the comments) and basically there was one thread that suggested the reason the stock price is going up is that Musk has a "secret" plan to install new, super-duper chargers all around the country that can only be used by Tesla's cars. Oh, and he's also going to solve all the battery problems and the solar charging problems shortly too! He is truly an "amazing" man!
    7 Aug 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Divine in the eyes of muskovites.

     

    We shall see if his genius has subsequent lives. You can't ever blame the guy for dreaming small that's for sure. But surely his persona has taken on a life of it's own.
    7 Aug 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1650) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article on Telsa on SA. The author sees an ecology based on electric cars; they are robots that do the owners' errands without the owner driving, etc. It's interesting. But, it really shows how we build castles in the air as rationalizations for our investments, when we need to invest for what will happen next year or two.
    7 Aug 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    07Aug12; Axion Power Intl. (AXPW); Breaking News - Today, shares of Axion Power are showing clear market strength and marked share price movement. Analysts deem this movement as amazing and quite comparable to growth rates seen in drought stricken corn.
    [snark]
    7 Aug 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    If Elvis has left the building, what's going to happen with those folks who are fishing, waiting and hoping for more cheap stock?
    7 Aug 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Was just looking at the AXPW quote on Yahoo while trying to keep the itch out of my trigger finger.

     

    At the bottom of the quote, it says, "People viewing AXPW also viewed XIDE, MXWL, FB."

     

    FB??? Didn't know Zuckberberg was a PbC supporter - LOL
    7 Aug 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    There is a little interesting cat and mouse going on the level II screens.

     

    Sellers holding pretty firm in the .32 neighborhood though someone put out a .3175 I believe for a little bit, and withdrew it.

     

    Buyers showing 16K right around .31. I think there was a little higher offer briefly, but it too disappeared without an actual trade.

     

    What you can see under that is UBSS 7K@ .302

     

    BUT

     

    I think there's a fair amount of retail "small fry" using ATDF, so it's hard to figure how much and how far under .31 there is. I thought I saw at least 35K around .305 at one point.

     

    Yesterday we had a number of fairly long standoffs. We had one whosh down which I just barely missed out on.

     

    Who's gonna blink?
    7 Aug 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    And how much is really available at .32? My guess is a lot. EGRO and FANC both showing 5000, but there was a point last week where there were at least 3 market makers all showing 5000 at .32. There was some speculation a big seller might have wised up a little and starting using multiple market makers.

     

    (and ATDF has offers just under .32 ... again probably a "small fry"/retail [like me ... no insult intended] )

     

    Wonder what would happen if the bidders all dropped to the .302 area?

     

    Volume is 3023 on 4 trades. Somebody wake up HTL ... I think he's dozing off :-)
    7 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    Huh? <blinks>, wiping eyes!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Aug 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    " And how much is really available at .32? My guess is a lot."

     

    I agree. And with the mm not showing his cards and jumping in front of trades on a day with such low volume it doesn't instill confidence.

     

    In the end Axion silence in such a pivotal year is sure not helping to drive volume on the buy side. So much for the read on Granville giddiness.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    Market makers can't jump the queue to sell shares they don't have. There's no way to tell at this juncture, but my tracking worksheet indicates that Quercus is done selling till mid-September and the free-wheeling selling we saw over the last two weeks could have taken the bankruptcy trustee's position down to zero. Our speculation that Blackrock might be selling has never been more than that - speculation. Even if Blackrock is a seller, they're now the only seller left in the game and there's no earthly reason for them to push and shove for position at the pay window.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I thought we were assuming Blackrock was selling because of the type of short selling that was going on, which we assumed was Quercus and Blackrock moving from paper stock cerficates? Did I miss something?
    7 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    After Blackrock sold 900,000 shares in 2011 and another 800,000 in Q1, most Axionistas jumped to the conclusion that Blackrock was doing the same thing the other 2009 purchasers had done. I don't necessarily agree with the assumption, but sometimes it's easier to acquiesce and assume a worst case scenario than to argue from a position of ignorance. FINRA data has a close correlation over the last few years, but it's far from perfect correlation.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to help from JP and emails to SA support I am out of SA's jail for copyright violators! I thought I had been banished from the APH because of disappearing threads and no reply from PM's to the APH for a couple of days. I posted some info from marketwatch without thinking about it and SA's comment scanners quickly found it and took me off to the moderation detention center. I apologize for all the PM's to various friends and fellow Axionistas suggesting nefarious evil-doers were responsible for my circumstances.

     

    The APH has been a part of my life since day one. I felt like my telephone and internet connections had been jerked out of the wall. I am housebound most of the time caring for my elderly bedridden mother and I have made a lot of friends among Axionistas. Suddenly being unable to participate in the threads was very upsetting given my isolation at the moment.

     

    Glad to be back!
    7 Aug 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    Welcome back Bang.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh Bang. Good to see that smilin face again.

     

    Welcome back to the land of "irrational exuberance". Hold on to your seat.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... You haven't missed it yet ... 300% is just moments away.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2246) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP. While I was sitting in my detention cell I spent my time creating a private site for all Axionistas who would like to spend time together on OT and any other discussion including raging Axion debates if desired. Actually, it is meant to be a place to relax together and hangout at times. You can reach Axionistaville at this URL: http://bit.ly/S0NFok

     

    It even has its own theme song suggested by HTL! Membership requires approval and all Axionistas are always approved! There are currently 8 Axionista members including the Boss Hogg! Check it out at your leisure.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Well it's obvious there is no interest in the middle of this range. The Axionists want it for less (good for them) and the seller(s) are not playing any more. There has been a block offered at .315 on both the buy and sell side with no action during this trading day. And the mm keeps taking the little tosses at .3199. Or he's playing catch with himself or one of his team members.

     

    "If we only had eggs.....".

     

    Stone soup.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    New Hydraulic Hybrid System Claims Big MPG Boost

     

    http://bit.ly/MhUGU6
    7 Aug 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Is this the same company we talked about previously that sells the hydraulic hybrid system for garbage trucks?
    7 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, No, As I recall that was Eaton. This manufacturer is targeting a range of smaller vehicles.

     

    http://bit.ly/O0JADT

     

    Here's a Wiki site that gives the range definition for trucks.

     

    http://bit.ly/QdEjEb
    7 Aug 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    I forgot to post yesterday's EOD here as I was running late this morning. Here 'tis.

     

    (AXPW): 8/6/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 36000, Vol 164530, AvTrSz: 9678
    Min. Pr: 0.3010, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3095
    # Buys, Shares: 9 86400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3163
    # Sells, Shares: 7 78030, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3020
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3075
    Buy:Sell 1.11:1 (52.5% “buy”), DlyShts 15600 (9.5%)

     

    Only two things of note today. There is a low daily short sale percentage, which might be just normal market-maker handling of sell orders from normal retail activity. However, it could be Quercus as a 10% (1/11th of volume) level would be 14,957 – not far from that 15.6K short volume. We’ll have to wait and see if a Form-4 shows up.

     

    The other things was that we had a 36K trade go at $0.3014 (a “sell”) at 12:24:25 and at 13:02 a sequence of three trades (10K @ $0.3016, 16K @ $0.3014 and 10K @ $0.3015) over 15 seconds totaling 36K that averaged to $0.3015. Since both of these were very near the low for the day I think that these might have been shares leaving the Mega-C BK trustee’s hands.

     

    We saw neither a late-morning (the way it happened in the recent past) or late-afternoon (the way it happened Friday) surge of falling asks and/or volume of “sells” hitting the bid. Further, there was a constant display of strong potential support at $0.30 presented by 4 market-makers showing “standard” 5k bids at $0.30 and one showing $0.299. Since they are “standard” block size presentations, we can’t really guess how much volume is really behind those display, but since three of them are the PUMA, NITE and FANC market-makers, it could be substantial.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Aug 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Wasn't it decided that Quercus no longer needs to file form 4's. :)

     

    http://bit.ly/O3a9pj
    7 Aug 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1707) | Send Message
     
    While I was happy I picked up the shares at .3014, now I know a couple of weasels got ahead of me by .0001 and .0002 for 10k each!
    7 Aug 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Now that you remind me, ISTR JP mentioning that, so CORRECTOMUNDO!

     

    Heeeyyyyy!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Aug 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Although JP posted earlier that his estimate is that Quercus sold out of their current tranche yesterday, I'm guessing that happened today instead. On Sun., 8/5 JP posted that his estimate was Q was down to 26,300 shares this tranche. Adding the FINRA short sales for yesterday and today gives 15,300 + 10,981 = 26,281 total shares, which is almost exactly 26,300, and pretty darn close to 10% of total daily volume for those two days, too. The Mark of Q.

     

    By the looks of the approx. 200k shares on the 30 to 31 cents bid range all day today, perhaps there be other folks that think the big sellers be gone soon.

     

    Will be interesting to see how this dynamic, if true, interacts with the earnings release/conf call reaction. My guess is that overall, expectations are very modest. Could be a very nice setup. Or...
    7 Aug 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17785) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I think JP pretty well nailed it, as did your math. 1/11th of 8/7 volume would work out to 10,472. Another 500 or so wouldn't affect price.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Aug 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    Fold up, flexible batteries coming:

     

    http://bit.ly/O38cJx
    7 Aug 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Actually it's many of the Chinese companies that need batteries you can fold up.......just before you throw them into the trash prematurely.
    7 Aug 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3366) | Send Message
     
    It looks like them sellers were trying to hang tough all day...tryin' to look all resolute... but once they heard that bell for last call? Then they broke and ran like little girls...
    7 Aug 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    48, And they had to end the day with a big ole 400 share trade near the low of the day. You work that thang.
    7 Aug 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Last year Axion announced the date of their Q2 earnings cc on August 2nd. Thought it was later this year.

     

    http://bit.ly/O0BVFP
    7 Aug 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Pike's been busy:

     

    Advanced Batteries for Energy Storage Will Represent a Market of Nearly $30 Billion by 2022, Forecasts Pike Research

     

    http://yhoo.it/MummGA

     

    References (on the Pike site):

     

    http://bit.ly/QvfKXN

     

    AXPW NOT listed in "Key Players" section. :-(

     

    I suppose one could argue that's because the PowerCube isn't a utility scale device. On the other hand there is a frequency regulation section.

     

    Or maybe they're confused about who really provides it ... AXPW or Rosewater?

     

    Are there any IP (Intellectual Property) patents that Axion has applied for that is directly related to the PowerCube? Conversely, are they in any danger of being required to pay patent licencing fees?

     

    Does anyone understand who actually will manufacture PowerCubes ... and who owns the rights to the design? Is it kinda open source at this point? I understand the concept that most systems will be customized, but I'm not real sure who's doing the customizing and if it's always Rosewater.

     

    Does Axion have significant power electronics experts on staff?

     

    Does Rosewater?

     

    Are either or both contracting it out?

     

    I don't know much about Rosewater, but so far I've mostly thought about them for their sales and marketing expertise.
    7 Aug 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    ARGH!!!! SA is screwing up my links again and won't let me fix it.

     

    The Pike link (2nd one I referenced) is actually in the first article.

     

    I don't know what on earth is happening with SA and links sometimes.

     

    Very irritating.
    7 Aug 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I don't think there is anything special or unique about the PowerCube other than the PBS batteries, the BMS software and the level of testing that stands behind it. Everything else is come again technology.

     

    This is not intended to minimize the Axion contribution or that of the other component supplers. It's just that anyone else can buy the other suppliers parts as well to come up with their own unique offering. They are off the shelf.
    7 Aug 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Anyone front run the good news?

     

    A123 Systems Announces Date for Second Quarter 2012 Results

     

    "A123 Systems, Inc. (AONE), a developer and manufacturer of advanced Nanophosphate(R) lithium iron phosphate batteries and systems, announced today that it will release its second quarter 2012 financial results for the period ended June 30, 2012 before financial markets open on Wednesday, August 8, 2012."

     

    http://yhoo.it/MuEmAK
    7 Aug 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. They are going to release their information early tomorrow morning and then have the CC at 8 am before the markets open? That doesn't sound good to me. Sounds like the numbers are going to be terrible and so they figured they'd better have the CC before the market opens to try and convince their shareholders that their upcoming technology is going to prevent the company from going bankrupt so they won't immediately go and dump the stock. Should be an interesting morning.
    7 Aug 2012, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    AONE finds a white knight. Of coarse the devil is in the details.

     

    "A123 Systems says China's Wanxiang to invest up to $450 mln"

     

    http://reut.rs/Muwx8e
    8 Aug 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    There's a pile of gotchas in them there documents including:

     

    * A $75 million bridge loan with 100% warrant coverage where the exercise price will initially be set at $0.425, subject to reduction to $0.17 in the event that certain government grants or tax credits cease to be available to the Company;
    * A $200 million Senior Secured Note with a conversion price equal to $0.60 per share, subject to reduction to $0.24 per share in the event that certain government grants or tax credits cease to be available to the Company;
    * 50% warrant coverage on the Senior Secured Note with an exercise price equal to $0.60 per share, subject to reduction to $0.24 per share in the event that certain government grants or tax credits cease to be available to the Company; and
    * Mandatory conversion or redemption of all of the outstanding 6.00% Convertible Notes and the related warrants; and the conversion or repurchase of at least 90% of the Company’s outstanding 3.75% Convertible Notes on terms satisfactory to the Lender in its sole discretion.

     

    With an estimated ±200 million shares currently outstanding, the Chinese will have rights to instantly acquire:

     

    * 176 million bridge warrant shares; plus
    * 333 million note conversion shares.

     

    In a way it's generous because it leaves the existing stockholders about 30% of the company.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    "In a way it's generous because it leaves the existing stockholders about 30% of the company."

     

    Actually when you look at their earnings statement you are absolutely correct. What a disaster.

     

    I posted another article that indicated 20% worst case but either way I still think the alternative for the existing stock holders would be far less generous without this deal. Now they need to find some real management.

     

    http://bit.ly/O4JPv9
    8 Aug 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30054) | Send Message
     
    The worst case would actually be a lot higher than 80%, but the distress pricing won't kick in unless unused subsidies are pulled by the granting governments.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9327) | Send Message
     
    Upcoming US military renewables projects.

     

    http://bit.ly/OKk2Hn
    7 Aug 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Brand spanking new APC right this way....

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Aug 2012, 08:41 PM Reply Like
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