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  • Axion Power Concentrator 135: Aug. 7, 2012 256 comments
    Aug 7, 2012 8:40 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Updated July 25th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta

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    From Bangwhiz August 2nd...

    Questions For The Axion Power 2nd Quarter Earnings Report and Conference Call

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    Over the last two years we've had a sequence of unfortunate events where big holders who *should* have been stable became persistent sellers. The list of significant stockholders and groups that emerged on the scene as persistent sellers is lengthy and includes:

    2010 sellers: FURSA; Liquidation Trust; and Small 2009 investors.

    2011-2012 sellers: Winner Estate; The Quercus Trust; Special Situations; Blackrock; and maybe Manatuck Hill

    Most of those sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. As near as I can tell, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around. I find the current volume spike particularly encouraging because it seems to be a final blow out of the last shares remaining in weak hands. Given the number of shares that have already traded this month I think there's a good chance that our persistent sellers will be out of stock before the mid-August conference call.

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close Aug. 3rd)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through close Aug. 3rd)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (256)
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  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2730) | Send Message
     
    First one! :-)
    7 Aug 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1286) | Send Message
     
    i ate your cookie :)
    7 Aug 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    While mulling other musical themes for Axionistaville I decided this one fits my all-in and waay underwater position perfectly:
    http://bit.ly/RnWhrH
    7 Aug 2012, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    A couple front runners Bang,

     

    http://bit.ly/MiIZw9

     

    http://bit.ly/O3Z33k
    8 Aug 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    Love it. Good choice :)
    8 Aug 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/MMXUeX
    7 Aug 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    A song for Axion management that expresses the boredom of watching recent price and volume action.
    http://bit.ly/OLkHby
    8 Aug 2012, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! (At least I think so.) I remember listening to this song over and over on the 8-track tape player in my parent's old LTD station wagon when I was a kid. Considering how much time some of us spend on this concentrator, and watching the stock daily, I think this song is "very" appropriate! :-)
    8 Aug 2012, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Perfect theme song for Axionistaville! How appropriate! For anyone who missed it the address for Axionistaville is http://bit.ly/S0NFok
    Maybe Axion will get the message given the songs nominated better than any other means.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Whew,
    Just caught up with my 400 missed comments. Thank God I didn't miss any price action with AXPW.

     

    Big delima. Should I take my KNDI profits and buy AXPW or short Telsa? Should I still believe in the KNDI story? Perhaps I should triple down on ZBB.

     

    HTL! I need you.
    8 Aug 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: When I saw the momentum run up yesterday I added long $30 strike Sep puts on (TSLA). I saw on JP's latest the usual few arguing JP is wrong because price jumped 5+%. They aren't aware of reversion to the mean? It went almost precisely to that point.

     

    A typical consolidation move now (if it manages to stay that positive) would be back to ~$28.20 on another "reversion to the mean". However with the recent Stanfield downgrade from buy to hold and (BAC) starting coverage at neutral this A.M., I suspect it will blow on by there, maybe doing a Fibonacci 61.8% to ~27.50.

     

    But the big trend is definitely downward (see chart for 7/16-8/2 for short-term and from 3/27 for longer-term) and I'm looking for something back towards $26 again.

     

    CAVEAT: Next week is options expiration week and volatility should be high. So if you don't have a strong stomach, might want to wait. Fortunately (or unfortunately?) I have a cast-iron stomach, based on eating habits and tolerance to what the market does to me sometimes.

     

    My take on yesterday's move was a big player wanted to unload some stock and the market-maker obliged. Also could have been just a lot of short covering by folks, starting around the $25.52 level 8/2, that sold short in the mid-to-high $3x areas.

     

    Last could have been EVangelicals that have interminable faith in their saint.

     

    As to (http://bit.ly/Nssj25), two very high volume days after a very long run up suggests a re-trace *or* consolidation might be coming shortly. But there's no real pattern now since it left that $3.5x area I mentioned long ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pause around $4 if there is a pullback. If it just consolidates, maybe $4.20/$4.30?

     

    With it being new territory, hard to have confidence in these numbers though.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Aug 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 8/7/2012 EOD stuff, copied from my insta (didn't forget today!).

     

    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 115193, AvTrSz: 4608
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3199, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3155
    # Buys, Shares: 18 80023, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3161
    # Sells, Shares: 5 33170, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3145
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 2000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3100
    Buy:Sell 2.41:1 (69.5% “buys”), DlyShts 10981 (9.53%)

     

    Daily short sales are quite close to 1/11th of daily volume, 10,472. Quercus? ISTR that JP thinks they are limited for the rest of this quarter. I see a post by Mister Investor in the concentrator suggests that this should be the last of Quercus for this quarter.

     

    The numbers and experimental charts continue to suggest that Blackrock is not participating right now and I think that now we can call JP right in suggesting the the Mega-C shares trustee has also run out of shares to dump as daily short sales continue to trend lower and volume has been down since 8/2 and VWAP quit falling after 8/3.

     

    Adding in the falling average trade sizes, suggesting a higher percentage of retail activity rather than large institutional-type activity, and the buy:sell ratio beginning to recover since 8/2 makes me pretty confident that at this level there is no risk of the large sellers coming back in.

     

    If I see $0.30xx again today I might be persuaded to add some more shares ahead of the quarterly report.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Aug 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Head east young man.

     

    Battery maker Boston-Power signs Beijing car deal

     

    http://bit.ly/O4FXKt
    8 Aug 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    AONE's theme song:

     

    http://bit.ly/ONXU1y
    8 Aug 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Saw them in 1979 or 1980.

     

    Head East as a young man? :)

     

    "A123 Systems in non-binding MoU with Wanxiang for strategic investment of up to $450M; Wanxiang would own up to 80% of A123 common stock"

     

    http://bit.ly/O4JPv9
    8 Aug 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    And once again we have an American company that takes a lot of US investor's money and a lot of taxpayer's money, and then sells the company to China. I guess we shouldn't be surprised. It was either this or bankruptcy. Hopefully they won't close the American plant immediately. After all, the parent company is trying to expand in the US, so maybe they'll keep some of the workforce here.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Shocking! Amazing! Who woulda thunk it???

     

    Well, actually just about everyone on this blog figured this would happen.

     

    So, what's the score now John? 3 BK's, and 2 gifted to the Chinese for pennies on the taxpayer's dollar?
    8 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    If AONE continues to have US auto contracts they will remain localized for pack assembly. They will probably also keep some cell level assembly just to wrap themselves in the American flag. No expansion in the US. The technology, if there is anything special, is gone.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    It may have been gone even before this!
    8 Aug 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    I think Tom Konrad over at Forbes did a pretty good job of laying out what the 80% stake in A123 by the Chinese company means for the short term valuation of the stock.

     

    Thoughts anyone?

     

    http://onforb.es/NdC1s2
    8 Aug 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure where Tom got his valuation numbers because my read is a good deal less encouraging. There's a pile of gotchas in the MOU including:

     

    * A $75 million bridge loan with 100% warrant coverage where the exercise price will initially be set at $0.425, subject to reduction to $0.17 in the event that certain government grants or tax credits cease to be available to the Company;
    * A $200 million Senior Secured Note with a conversion price equal to $0.60 per share, subject to reduction to $0.24 per share in the event that certain government grants or tax credits cease to be available to the Company;
    * 50% warrant coverage on the Senior Secured Note with an exercise price equal to $0.60 per share, subject to reduction to $0.24 per share in the event that certain government grants or tax credits cease to be available to the Company; and
    * Mandatory conversion or redemption of all of the outstanding 6.00% Convertible Notes and the related warrants; and the conversion or repurchase of at least 90% of the Company’s outstanding 3.75% Convertible Notes on terms satisfactory to the Lender in its sole discretion.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NFA9E4

     

    With an estimated ±200 million shares currently outstanding, the Chinese will have rights to instantly acquire:

     

    * 176 million bridge warrant shares; plus
    * 333 million note conversion shares.

     

    In a way it's generous because it leaves the existing stockholders about 30% of the company.
    8 Aug 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    As far as I can tell, he is using the high end exercise price for all the shares that WGC can purchase and factoring their cost into the final number of shares outstanding. He doesn't take into account the possibility (as you have pointed out) of government grants or tax credits being pulled, and the effect that would have on the price of shares for WGC. Obviously, he didn't do his homework as well as you. :-)
    8 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    OK, so here's a question to ponder...

     

    "Conditions to Issuance. The issuance of the 8.00% Convertible Notes and the Convertible Note Warrants will be subject to certain closing conditions, including obtaining the shareholder approval, CFIUS approval and Chinese regulatory approval; the expiration or termination of any waiting periods under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, as amended, and any other antitrust or competition laws; the continued listing of the Common Stock on Nasdaq..."
    How exactly are they going to keep A123 listed on the Nasdaq for the next 6 months or (180 days) without a reverse split in the stock price to get it back over $1/share, or a waving of the Nasdaq's policies for stock price listings? I know that the Nasdaq will often give a company up to a year to get their stock price back over $1/share to save their listing, but how is A123 going to guarantee that this will happen, considering that the timer on the $1 threshold started a while back?
    8 Aug 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    6 trade blink totaling 30K at .31

     

    a little surprised that the current best bid is now 35K @ .305 ... thought there might be a few above that, but I guess they bumped up to the .31 neighborhood during the standoff and got taken out in the "blink."

     

    Actually, I presume the "blink" wasn't one of the bigger sellers, just someone that is hates grass and just wanted out.

     

    5 different market makers offering right at .32 ... will they hold firm?
    And just how much is available at .32????

     

    God, we need something in the news department before or during the conference call!
    8 Aug 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • foolcd
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    I just got my 35k bid @$0.301 filled. I had entered this order earlier this week and I was a little surprised because I did no expect it anymore but well it was executed, that's good news .... I think.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Looks like 100k got dumped starting at 11:10:00. The selling isn't completely done yet, anyway, it seems.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Market order?

     

    $0.3010 1,000 OTO 11:10:19
    $0.3010 35,000 OTO 11:10:17
    $0.3020 7,000 OTO 11:10:04
    $0.3030 15,000 OTO 11:10:03
    $0.3020 6,000 OTO 11:10:02
    $0.3020 20,000 OTO 11:10:02
    $0.3051 10,000 OTO 11:10:01
    $0.3100 6,000 OTO 11:10:00

     

    Congrats foolcd ... I didn't think it would happen either.

     

    By now I should recognize the patience of you guys!

     

    On the other hand, these 2 trades could have been former Axionistas giving up ... the general market has been climbing that wall of worry without AXPW ...
    8 Aug 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Actually, I presume the "blink" wasn't one of the bigger sellers, just someone that is hates grass and just wanted out."

     

    Agreed, I expected that once the larger sellers calmed down the stock would surely not recover immediately. That's what's kind of expected and It's too obvious. Now the impatient have to leave as well.

     

    BTW, Having battery companies all around you blowing up doesn't help.

     

    Plus, as you suggest, the company is too quiet. Not favorable for a small company running in the red. Usually these only trade on buzz and we're not hearing much of late.

     

    So it's fight or flight. Haven't seen much fight here short term. Hard to get the troops to bear arms when there are no words of encouragement from the kingdom.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In many ways a war is kinder than the stock market because two armies clash, one advances and the other retreats to prepare for another battle, and the process continues until somebody waves a white flag.

     

    In the market there's nobody left to wave a white flag and signal the end, so the siege mentality survives longer than the opposition. As the last of the stragglers are run to ground and assimilated the mood changes, but it doesn't happen overnight.

     

    This war is over because there are no more barbarian hordes with large stock positions, but the troops don't realize it yet.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    If this is what "a very exciting year" is supposed to feel like, then I guess a *dull* year would be something like frozen winter naptime on ice planet Hoth. Is this year *really* playing out like TG anticipated--and only just taking longer? ...Or did something in fact majorly derail? The year is now nearly 2/3 gone after all. There must be a reason things are so quiet on this (audience) side of the curtain. The question is whether that silence is intentional and deliberate, purposefully protecting the evolving action behind, or simply the unavoidable consequence of nothing much happening. Because thus far, as we all would agree, exciting is not really the word. Inscrutable is. TG's tone is sure to tell a lot next week...
    8 Aug 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... I guess a legit question for TG would be what the "excitement" time frame might be. Axion's year isn't quite 1/2 gone. It starts in March. I see NSC finishing yard testing by then and might even have made some orders for demonstrator construction. BMW ... well, for all we know there might, could, possibly, sorta, maybe an order by 2015 but they haven't publicly said squat about Axion for 2 or 3 years.
    8 Aug 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Based on my limited read on the subject, I'd liken this to being in the trenches during WW1. Except it's more quiet and fortunately, yes it is I remind myself, far less stressful.

     

    Good luck is having enough urine for your gas mask!

     

    Oh Well, waiting for the next order to take back last weeks trench 10 meters forward. Or retreat 10 meters back. Progress recent Axion certificate style! :(
    8 Aug 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "TG's tone is sure to tell a lot next week... "

     

    48, Huh?

     

    After EOY 2011 you think there is a correlation between TG's tone and short term progress. I'm kinda hoping he reads a poem about the fall of the US banking empire in some slow dire tone! :))
    8 Aug 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    DR, copy you on the FY vs CY, but I think I recall (and took) TG to be speaking of the 2012 calendar year when he made that "exciting" comment last November...
    8 Aug 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/S2QOUE
    8 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    I'd be interested to know if Axion did any "special" QC for the NS order? Considering the debacle at A123 this Spring, and the fact that this is Axion's biggest PbC order to date, I'm just wondering how many different ways they crossed their "T"s and dotted their "i"s to make sure there are no problems with the order.
    8 Aug 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, I knew that remark (mine) might be in for some derision, and in one sense deservedly so, but what I mean is that I seriously doubt TG is in any way detached from reality. Further, I believe he was being 100% sincere on that call. He was just either premature at that time, or was simply wrong altogether. Most probably about counter-party timelines. He certainly has to recognize at this point that there is a disconnect between what he indicated then, and what we've so far seen and experienced to date. I don't think he'll fail to acknowledge that in some way, either in his prepared remarks or certainly when he's pressed in the Q&A. The question again all devolves to whether progress has merely slipped somewhat in time, but otherwise everything remains in place and is a go, with substantial (but latent) developments still proceeding just fine, or if indeed something important, some relationship or technology factor, has truly broken. And I do believe his tone, to say nothing of his actual statements, will in fact give us valuable insight as to which obtains. Bottom line, TG is not delusional.

     

    "Progress is not always measured in output."

     

    But.... I do plainly admit that at the moment I am reduced to simply hoping that that will be our saving grace.
    8 Aug 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I remain convinced that Tom was absolutely sincere in his year end call, but managed to overlook that Q1 was already baked and out of the oven. There's always a possibility that timelines have slipped or relationships have developed stress points, but I see no reason to think there are problems. The reports that came back from the guys who went to the stockholders meeting were all pretty positive and there was no indication that TG was lowering his expectations. I"m doing my best to avoid building expectations for the upcoming CC, but I think many Axionistas have set their sights too low.
    8 Aug 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    After watching a series of battery companies either go BK or be bought out for pennies on the dollar by the Chinese, and considering how long it has taken customers like NS and BMW to move forward with orders, I don't know if we've set our sights too low or are just worried that if we stick our heads up too far to look around we are going to get our ears shot off by Elmer Fudd.
    8 Aug 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The one thing all those busted and bought out companies had in common was monthly if not weekly burn rates that exceed Axion's annual burn rate.

     

    Every one of them proves the principle that like babies in sub-saharan Africa, starvation is rarely an issue for developing companies but financial dysentery is always a killer.

     

    Battery development is agonizingly slow and customers move at a glacial pace, but as long as spending is controlled, the rest has a way of working itself out because the demand for better storage products is immense beyond reckoning.

     

    Every time I hear somebody second guessing the decisions they assume management is making I do a mental calculation of the out of pocket costs of pursuing a different path that might or might not be successful.

     

    As I watch everyone else in the industry commit financial suicide by trying to be all things to all potential customers using money they can't afford to waste, I thank God for a team that knows that nobody can afford to waste money. As long as management keeps it's head down, it's eyes on the ball and triple locks on the cash drawer, the PbC will win on its own merits and in the customers own time. The risks of technical failure are already past. Now management has to keep from shooting itself in the foot (or higher) by being arrogant or careless.
    8 Aug 2012, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Another question is whether or not we will again hear the words "as an ongoing concern" in the upcoming call as the stage is set for yet another round of financing.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion should finish Q2 with $8 million in working capital and $15 million in equity, which makes it pretty unlikely that the Form 10-Q will include a going concern paragraph.

     

    People keep talking about the next round of financing as an immediate risk, but the reality is that the next round isn't going to be needed before mid- to late-November and may very well be pushed into early 2013.

     

    Axion's management has a nine year history of going to market when they need to, and not a moment before. Expecting that pattern to change without a clearly identifiable use of proceeds that requires earlier action is a flight of fear inspired fantasy.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, Let me start out by saying I have no qualms concerning what I can see regarding TG's character or his capabilities. That being said he's paid a respectable compensation package for what he's delivering and it's a base expectation for a person in his position.

     

    My point is that part of his job is to manage stakeholder expectations via his and his teams information releases. I'd have to say he's done a fair enough job with one exception I'd point out. His EOY guidance along with his delivery contrasted heavily with his end of Q1 back peddling. I found this contrast to be quite disconcerting.

     

    Other than that I'd say he's ultra conservative in managing information flow and I think he's doing an respectable job. He does however make it very difficult for investors to manage their risk because I don't think he's very forthright with information concerning where they are in the process of having this technology ready for high volume roll out into the targeted markets. I know it's hard but I suspect they are a couple years off target. MHO.

     

    Please understand that I'm not questioning the capability of the technology to perform it's function. I am really targeting where they are in the production process with my comments. I think TG underestimated how hard it is to manufacture and I think he under hired the level of talent he needed and perhaps still needs in this area. If my suspicions are correct Mr. Dantum should have put a bug in his ear pretty quickly.
    8 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, Thanks sincerely for all that. Good points to consider. It's clear you know your business, and so we all benefit from what you share. I've always sort of been considering it that our limiting factor for the moment has been demand and not production. And I guess I've under-appreciated how it might really be a chicken-egg kind of thing: That without credible large-scale production capability in place, the real orders just can't / won't be forthcoming. But I've certainly been thinking for a while that we at least do now have a respectable production capability, if moderately sized... enough to service some real (though not large) orders, if only they would materialize... Am I wrong in that would you say?
    8 Aug 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, I think your chicken/egg thing always comes into play with start up companies and or new technology. On the one hand BMW, like all auto makers, has a need that can't be met with a current acceptably priced available solution. Axion comes closer to filling this need from a technology standpoint but it's still not an available solution because they want assured cost/quality/delivery. Axion has not proven any of these at scale. That being said I know BMW has looked them over via clothed, naked and internal examination to assess the ability of the technology to scale given adequate resources and time. If they had come to a negative conclusion they'd be gone.

     

    Please note that this assessment is a living one. The industry is not standing still in working toward solutions and BMW needs to keep assessing progress because they have needs and one of them is availability at some point in time. Axion has to make sure they constantly feel out BMW to make sure they don't fall out of favor because BMW feels they can't hatch what they need on time. Of coarse there is also the fact that some other technology can mature fast enough to disqualify Axion. Little TG can do about that.

     

    The thing with automotive is that they expect digital launches in the metrics I mentioned. When they set a date for assessment you need to meet the ability to support peak steady state production on day one based on an agreed to launch plan that manages their risk. It seems harsh but you have to remember all the things that need to come together to have a car roll out the back door of a final assembly plant (s). There are s#$t tons of money on the line and delays are very very expensive.
    8 Aug 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you may be seriously underestimating the experience, ability and influence of my favorite tyrant on the Axion board, Bob Averill.

     

    Until Quercus came along Averill was Axion's biggest investor and biggest stockholder by a wide margin. He's one of the most forceful personalities I've ever met and a living legend in one of the toughest precision manufacturing environments imaginable – human orthopedic implants.

     

    Over the course of his career Bob started three different orthopedic implant companies at the patent stage, took the products through development, took the products through commercialization and grew his companies to a point where they were suitable acquisition targets for the Fortune 500. His first company was sold to 3M, his second was sold to Stryker and his third was sold to Zimmer Holdings.

     

    Averill's too damned rich to be a member of line management, but he's been personally riding herd on the technical, engineering and manufacturing teams since day one. His commitment and enthusiasm for the product and his absolute determination that Axion would manufacture to his standards or it wouldn't manufacture at all was the biggest reason I got involved in the first place.

     

    Bob Averill never underestimates the difficulty of manufacturing anything, but he's careful enough on the front end to make it look easy when the switch is thrown. Axion has an infinitesimally small defect rate on the flooded lead-acid contract for a reason – manufacturing management that knew what they were doing on the front end. I'm comfortable they'll have the same level of quality on the electrode assembles because Bob wouldn't have it any other way.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, Again, thanks. Clearly, automotive is the Big Leagues ---For all kinds of hard reasons. If we play there, we play big. Nothing is a little deal at this level. The rewards can be substantial but the demands absolutely are. I think I got it now. ;)
    8 Aug 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "I know it's hard but I suspect they are a couple years off target. MHO." - I don't really doubt your assertion, but that does not comport with the seemingly prepared recent remark of fasten your seatbelts, we are getting ready to take flight.
    8 Aug 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Perhaps I should be a little clearer in laying out the case as to how I developed my perception with regard to the delay I'm mentioning. This will allow others to put it in the proper perspective and critique accordingly. BTW, I feel that the missed timing has been felt by the stock price already.

     

    As you know Axion had built line 1 at some point in time. A prototype line if you will. This was a heavily manual line intended, in my mind, for product/process development. As a result of this line they learned some things and ordered 2 new stations which were, I'm assuming, intended to support some better understood product/process requirements garnered from the first line and the ongoing product development. These stations were also ordered at a time when a new and improved line was being developed. One would assume the new stations would be designed not only to resolve and verify the fix of lessons learned but also to support the new lines higher level of automation.

     

    One would also theorize that before the newer (current) line was ordered that there should be a high level of confidence in the process requirements and automation cycle times before the line was specified and ordered. This is pretty standard, especially for a company with limited resources. The outcome of this was a line that when fired up at Axion during initial installation was running at about half the intended cycle time. So be it, it's debug. But to be this far off the mark coming off the vendors floor where at a minimum dry cycling with delays imparted for process times should have occurred is a little odd.

     

    The bigger issue in my mind is that we are now a year beyond installation and we still are significantly under cycle. This has been discussed and it's assumed perhaps a parallel station might resolve the issue. Standard for a power and free system and not too hard to install most likely. And if the solution is understood I can understand why they would not risk installation until line 3 is ordered. Never risk supporting low volume level requirements to support higher volumes not required at this stage.

     

    The thing that doesn't sit well with me is that they should never have been this far off the mark based on the tool sets they had before the second line was ordered. This tells me they either have an automation team (Axion/the supplier) that doesn't know what they are doing or they ordered the line before the process was well understood. I prefer it to be the first but either way not good.

     

    So we are a year plus behind on where we should be with line verification to support the business case and we will take another large chunk of time getting line 3 up to speed when it's ordered. All in all I'm guessing a total impact of 2 years in this area.

     

    Does this end up impacting Axions opportunity for success by 2 years. I doubt it but can't guess how much it will go to the bottom line.

     

    Please note, and this is important, none of this is proprietary so TG could clearly lay out where they are without giving anything away. Then you wouldn't have stock holders like me trying to see a clear picture with only a limited piece of the puzzle. But TG still holds it close to the chest. This I think is not fair to the stakeholders. I can understand why but in my mind it's a weakness.

     

    I hope this helps to put my thoughts in the proper perspective. Please feel free to ask for more definition and always to point out where I'm wrong. I'm looking to make money like everyone else!
    8 Aug 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,

     

    First, thank you for the detailed response. Your expertise is very much appreciated. Although, I can raise issues, questions and at certain times call b.s. with respect to answers regarding manufacturing, I have no ability to articulate what my gut feelings are in this area because they are just that gut feelings based on observations.

     

    Anyway you slice it, it appears clear that people are ready for some straight talk.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Too Low? I'm baffled. I notice disappointment on several fronts but I've read explicitly & implicitly people commenting here still expecting the end of selling & share appreciation, design wins, demonstrations at scale, news, sales, 300% growth. I think these ideas are exuberantly, if not fancifully, high. I've no doubt TG is better spirits about the business than a few short years ago & things are much better. You can hear it in his voice during the CC's just not in the visible spectrum.

     

    If you want low expectations (and I'm sure no one is interested in that) I could layout my figuring for the next 12 months. I do love surprises though.
    8 Aug 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I asked the question a week ago and the one thing that was nowhere in sight was consensus. We're all starved for news, but the human mind has a curious quirk that assumes an absence of news is a bad sign. That's not the way it works when your small sales projects are a half-million to a million each and the big projects can represent tens or even hundreds of millions. I hate the way the process seems to drag, but we both know that failures and rejections come quickly while getting to Carnegie Hall takes practice, practice, practice.
    8 Aug 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    I'm with Inndelco on this front.
    I think the problem with Axion is TG, he will not be our saviour anytime soon, while as you say he commands a very nice compensation package.
    Ths is 2012 not 2002 when I (and many others) bought our first set of wildly overvalued shares, it's time to get on with it as a company or sell to someone who actually has an interest in promoting this stock, why no BMW commentary after way long enough for testing ?, not a good sign in my books.
    We are going to miss stop/start if we delay any longer !
    8 Aug 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    JR, I think you've taken my mile away glance at TG a little too harshly. He may well be earning his pay every day and then some but my point(s) were made as stated.

     

    As for where Axion is with BMW. The fact that they were meeting during a cc earlier this year after so much time had passed since their joint presentation says wonders. I just worry overall because I have a sense of where they are on the manufacturing side and I know how demanding automotive is when it comes to price/quality/delivery. Axion may well have a great product and I sense that is why BMW is still working with them. However Axion has a long way to go to fulfill the requirements to be an anode supplier to automotive on the manufacturing side. Also don't forget the need to find a tier one battery partner for this as well.
    8 Aug 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't want to repeat the comment I just wrote about Bob Averill, but it is equally applicable here so I thought I's throw in a reference.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks.

     

    I hadn't read your post yet as I was too busy babbling. You are correct that I should have taken Mr. Averill's input in Axion's nurturing into my risk assessment of Axion on the manufacturing side. My bad for sure. I feel better......but I still think they are late.

     

    That being said I always feel better knowing that they are not disregarding important steps in the launch process. It's always better to show up a little less timely with your act together then to be on time with your head up your.....

     

    Just not too late!

     

    Just ask AONE.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know enough to judge whether they're late or not because I'm a firm believer in the theory that the automakers will only do the right thing after they've exhausted the other alternatives. As you might expect I'm really looking forward to the end of September when I'll spend four days perfecting the art of active listening.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, I will not call you're opportunity to spend time in Paris as being lucky because you've worked for it. I will say you're gonna feel like you're sitting in the catbird set. Tune those ears and careful your face doesn't crack when you start smiling like a Cheshire cat.

     

    You know we'll be waiting for hearsay.
    8 Aug 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    JR, you are not alone in questioning whether TG is the right person to move the company forward from here while it is not clear one way or the other. I only know for certain my expectations for Axion performance this year did not arise from year-end performance reporting and TG comments in the associated CC. Those expectations began rising in earnest this time last year. Axion performance in the intervening months is what it is. As an investor (and a relatively minor one), I recognize I have three options regarding that performance -- accept it, reject it, or try to change it. Acceptance means continuing with business as usual. Rejection means taking my losses and walking away. Trying to change it means reviewing the record carefully, reconsidering explanations and operating assumptions previously accepting, defining a workable alternative plan, and devising an achievable plan of implementation. Whether I opt for rejection or change depends on the outcome of record review and reconsideration of past rationales I have commenced.

     

    I know for certain I do not agree with Axion's corporate policy of non-disclosure of PbC battery technical performance characteristics. And, I am more than a little dissatisfied with the known, small number and limited diversity of energy storage system integrators the company has sold batteries to and supplied with technical info. The avenue used for the 2011 capital raise raised concerns and questions.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of Mr. Averill, I may be mistaken, but didn't Maya say that at one point when he was visiting Axion, Mr. Averill said that auto was at least two years out? And that was approximately a year or 9 months ago?

     

    Please correct me if my memory is mistaken.
    9 Aug 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I remember the discussion but not the timing. In any event, it's "at least two years out" is more intended to reduce being overly optimistic in my mind.

     

    One point to consider though is to make sure you separate the ramifications of getting the contract from actually delivering on the contract. There would be so much work required in front of such a contract that it would be close to impossible for Axion to hide such a major event. Just the capital raise required to support even a minor automotive app. would be enormous and remember they would most probably need a tier I partner.
    9 Aug 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The question downstream of the "at least two years out" comment (if it occurred) 2 years ago becomes:

     

    What does it mean if we are now a year away from a major auto sale?

     

    I would think that would be a transformative concept, once fully developed.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: Yes. It was the first shareholders conference I attended in which Bob gave a "scenario" of when BMW might begin fleet testing, of say 200 vehicles or so.

     

    His time frame though, was merely a guess. The time frame I recall, almost a year ago, was two years out for the fleet testing, to then turn into say, one model to begin using the PbC.

     

    My thoughts are that Axion could, with current production capabilities, provide BMW with as many batteries as they would need. TG said at the last SC that Axion is capable of meeting any small to medium sized orders.

     

    Again, the dream of all dreams, at least for me, is when Axion teams up with a major battery maker, to make PbCs for more than one model, and more than one OEM.

     

    I think it's a pretty important question for this coming CC to ask TG about the status of the BMW testing program. I'd like to hear an update of how the German police cars have performed...if it is indeed true that this is/has occurred.

     

    I haven't for some time checked into foriegn bills of lading to figure out more data.

     

    Apologies on not writing a response sooner. I am on my family's annual reunion, and am paying far less attention to anything Internet related.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    No worries, Maya, thanks for the response.
    9 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    New job posted at Axion

     

    "ISO Coordinator/Senior Quality Assurance Technician"
    8 Aug 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    KentG: That sure sounds like a positive, doesn't it? I would think that sort of posting is in preparation for production of an order, based on my experience long ago with ISO and EDI standards.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Aug 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes indeed, HTL, KentG, most interesting...
    8 Aug 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >KentG & HTLove ... If that is anything along the lines of the ISO Coordination (truly a thankless job) I get roped into doing from time to time, it is probably aimed at an EU customer and/or auto. Geez, they have go mountains of documentation that go along with first orders.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just what I was thinking, DRich...
    8 Aug 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Nice catch, KentG. I just checked the Careers tab on their website on Monday, but nothing then.

     

    Do you guys think this is a new position? Looks like we have another Q for TG next week.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Geez, they have go mountains of documentation that go along with first orders."

     

    DRich, You can say that again. It is the part of the job I hate the most. Believe me, I well understand the usefulness of the tools but man oh man. Fortunately as time progressed more of these tasks became deliverables of others on my team(s). As such, while I had huge inputs to the process, I gave up large secretarial duties ( I call it that but it takes a lot of time, talent and effort to put the documents together). Saved many a wall from being given impressions of my forehead.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I have worked most of my adult life in MFG and having been through ISO certification as well. I would agree/hope this is the lead in to increased production volumes. The first two job responsibilities listed say a lot to me.

     

    "This position has the following responsibilities:

     

    1 Documenting existing processes

     

    2 Works with and/or coordinates with the staff in relevant departments for development of detailed procedures and practices. Initiates actions to implement the same."

     

    I still remember a certain saying for ISO, Do what you say(follow the procedure), say what you do(document what you actually do).

     

    Still over aggressively long AXPW 8-)
    8 Aug 2012, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    KentG, Thanks so much for the post.

     

    It's a great sign to me and well deserving of the warm fuzzy granting of "Post of the week". :)

     

    To me it doesn't necessarily mean it's directed to automotive, rail or the utility industry. I would suspect all these industries are looking for "similar" certification these days. They have all learned much from each other.

     

    To me it's a sign that Axion sees a clear path to scaled production and they see the need, based on their target timing, to initiate this necessary step to support their efforts. Given Axion's tight control of money it says a lot.
    8 Aug 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, thanks for the kind words. 8-)
    8 Aug 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I think companies providing automotive production parts need their processes to be ISO certified. ISO certification means a process is completely defined. Management would want a manufacturing process completely defined as part of the process for expanding future manufacturing capacity.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    At first glance, having once been a member of Match.com, I thought ISO meant, "In Search Of." ;-)
    9 Aug 2012, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    From AXPW web page:

     

    ISO Coordinator/Senior Quality Assurance Technician

     

    Axion Power Battery Manufacturing Company is a leading developer of advanced lead acid carbon battery technologies and advanced energy storage devices. We are seeking to fill an ISO Coordinator/ Senior Quality Assurance Technician position at the New Castle, PA facility.

     

    This position has the following responsibilities:
    •Documenting existing processes
    •Works with and/or coordinates with the staff in relevant departments for development of detailed procedures and practices. Initiates actions to implement the same.
    •Reviewing existing ISO, GAP analysis
    •Develop a strategy to address the issues identified in the GAP analysis
    •Designing or supporting the design of new processes to help close gap
    •Conducting internal auditing for ISO compliance
    •Maintain and improve quality by completing surveillance audits; investigating customer complaints; collaborating with other members at all levels to develop new procedures and training methods.
    •Works with departments and staff to help identify root cause problems, may assist in resolving those problems
    •Prepares quality documentation and reports by collecting, analyzing and summarizing information and trends including failed processes, corrective actions and re-inspections.
    •Lead ISO external and internal audits; clearly understand the compliance requirements, collecting objective evidence, and writing up audit reports ensure the quality management system is operating effectively.
    •Able to understand a variety of instructions furnished in written, oral, diagram, or schedule form and help others to follow and conform to the established best practice. Communicating compliance and conformance.
    •Able to perform and deliver training on quality process audits.
    •Develop and managing internal training program for ISO related training needs
    •Trains new employees and reviews, examines the company processes in order to determine if the company is following ISO standards
    •When new standards are released, the ISO Coordinator sets up training programs designed to update employees
    • Ensures coordination of the interfaces of all disciplines
    •Performs Quality Assurance inspections on production shop floor approximately 20% of the time

     

    Requirements to be considered for this position are:

     

    •Related University Degree or Technical Diploma
    •Experience with the Quality documentation process; document control, managing documents, records, forms, and work instructions
    •Experience with Lean or Lean Six Sigma process improvement methodologies. Green Belt would be a plus
    •ISO Certified Auditor
    •Complete understanding ISO 9001-2008; experience with other ISO standards may be a plus
    •Strong computer skills
    •Strong interpersonal skills
    •Leadership ability
    •Team player
    •Innovative
    •Personal drive
    •Commitment to excellence
    •Manual dexterity required for operating machinery and computer
    •Ability to lift up to 50 pounds

     

    Working conditions:

     

    •Working conditions are normal for a manufacturing environment
    •Position works mainly within the plant environment
    •Work involves lifting or materials up to 50 lbs
    •Machinery and tool operation requires the use of safety equipment to include but not limited to eye safety glasses, hearing protection, respirator and steel toe boots

     

    For consideration, email a resume with salary requirements to shollander@axionpower.com no later than August 24, 2012. Axion Power International, Inc. is an Equal Opportunity Employer/AAP.
    8 Aug 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    I have a problem to fill the position:

     

    •Work involves lifting or materials up to 50 lbs

     

    I'm just going with 25 Lbs.
    Carlos.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sigh. To be young again... Lifting 50 pounds sounds like a minimum requirement working in a Battery factory...
    8 Aug 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I can still lift 50 lbs., "Hey you, come lift this thing!"

     

    Delegation rocks.
    8 Aug 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    When in France working on pool house, the sand and gravel at the DIY stores came in 40 kilo (88 lbs.) bags and the cement in 35 (77 lbs) bags. After putting six bags in my car and then taking them from the trunk 10 meters to their resting spot I was ready for a two hour rest break and some champagne to celebrate not getting a hernia. Did that every few days for a while and always dreaded it - while cursing the inability of the DIY store to put it in the size of sack that most people could carry: and me being from sturdy working class peasant stock.

     

    The new job opening seems like a step in the right direction.
    8 Aug 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    No, maybe I will apply to work in a bakery.
    Good night
    Carlos.
    8 Aug 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    re., ISO certificaton technician,
    I would think this is not a new position entirely as surely someone was performing this function previously as their ISO certification was completed quite some time ago. (12-18 months ago, if my limited recall ability is functioning properly today)
    If this is a new position, doesn't that add evidence to the concernt that we are indeed behind on our targets.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    In the 3/11/11 10 Q they talk about expecting to receive ISO certification in April 2011. So they probably are ISO compliant. This position could represent a replacement or it could represent an expansion. The position is described as a coordinator/ senior position.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I assume the ISO cert. they were after was ISO/TS16949. This is the one they would require to be able to sell to an OEM or major auto manufacturer.

     

    If they did pass certification April 2011, they won't need to be re-cert. until 2014 (cert. is good for a 3 year period), HOWEVER they must be audited annually by an IATF cert. auditer (independent 3rd party like Bureau Veritas, DQS, UTAC, etc). If they were certified April 2011, we can hope that they passed audit and got confirmed again this year.

     

    This is a big hairy deal if Axion is to sell to folks like BMW, Ford, GM, etc...
    8 Aug 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Here is the text from the 10Q:

     

    Axion has been recommended by a Quality System Registrar (SRI) for certification under ISO 9001:2008 – ANSI/ISO/ASQ Q9001-2008 for its Quality Management System. The scope of the ISO 9001:2008 registration is the “Design, manufacture, and distribution of advanced lead acid batteries and battery components”. Training, visual shop floor controls, and a strong commitment to quality have resulted in the third-party accreditation firm (SRI) recommending Axion for ISO certification. We expect to receive the ISO certificate in April 2011.
    8 Aug 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Possible an ISO certification for bio-carbon sheeting process might be underway?
    8 Aug 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Or...the "new" electrode?
    9 Aug 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    Or ... integration documentation with/for a manufacturing partner. We could guess until the next blue moon but the process of ISO compliance is such a time consuming endeavor it really requires a detached (as in not integral to day-to-day business activity) full time employee.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    DRich: that's just what I was thinking - time to offload from someone that was carrying the load (plant management or engineering type?).

     

    Either way, getting to the point of *needing* to either offload for existing load or add resource for new load suggests to me that something is moving.

     

    Otherwise they wouldn't be spending those manhole covers.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    After reading the many comments recently about significant perceived shortcomings of the company, it seems to me it might be helpful to step back and look at the big picture.

     

    Is this a stock worth owning here at 30 cents/$35mil mkt cap?

     

    Well, of course that depends on a lot of things. One of which is expectations for their revenue, earnings and cash flow ramps. I sense that it sometimes feels to many folks here that Axion will have no significant revenues until they score a giant PbC order with s/s or rail. Which then could mean years away. A LONG time to wait for some holders here that have waited for a long time already.

     

    But is the ramp really so all-or-nothing, and so distant? Don't they have the ability and the desire to fill in the giant-order waiting periods with smaller orders that they can fully produce themselves? Residential PC, oil rig, military, smaller rail orders, smaller s/s orders, flooded, etc., etc., etc. Some of these orders are really not so small, anyway, e.g., half a million bucks for a single yard slug's batteries; double that for OTR. Heck, even the residential PC is 24 batteries at a time. I submit that when added together, significant sales, or at least significant evidence of big demand, can occur well before "Intel Inside" is needed.

     

    Call it a transition valuation, with an attached leap option for any big wins.

     

    It's getting late, so that's it. Hope at least some of that made sense. Thanks.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, it does make sense and I think that is what has kept many people holding on in the short term vs waiting for what would be perceived as the last capital raise before committing money here.
    9 Aug 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    " Mr. I, it does make sense and I think that is what has kept many people holding on in the short term...."

     

    Absolutely. It is more likely than not that someone like NS (highest probability partner time wise) is going to give Axion a push to GO if they get to a level where their larger plans become obvious with Axion playing a supportive role. An event such as this example annoncement "We are satisfied and out plans are WX switchers and YZ OTR locomotives over ABC time frame" would be the golden ticket. And if you think about it it's the most likely scenario of how Axion will get over the hump and the best thing a customer who has become confident in a technology they spent a bunch of money developing can then assure supply.
    9 Aug 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I suppose I was just reminding amd elaborating on, "Axion's future goal, after filling their plant's lead-carbon battery production capacity..." from this morning's press release.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    I have to admit that I'm becoming somewhat more concerned about Axion, mainly because I also expect the scenario Mr. I describes.

     

    I thinking about going out on a limb to say that I bet in 2015, NS, BMW, and GM combined will not account for the majority of Axion's sales. Generally speaking, big companies don't innovate. We all know that. I believe the best we can hope for from these companies is validation (which we are getting) and relatively small orders to maintain their ONGOING demonstration programs. Big orders will only come after someone else has proven that it works at scale which likely won't be until after 2015.

     

    That leaves us waiting for the new emerging applications. Like the big applications, they all require a dedicated engineering effort to design the solution from the ground up, given the unique capability set of the PbC. Small companies lack these resources. Medium-sized companies can do it, but it's just going to take a lot of time.

     

    So, the residential power cube is a great thing. If you count Rosewater as part of "us", then we're taking it upon ourselves to cross the chasm by building the first complete product. Picture it as the first rope in the construction of a bridge. Hopefully, that'll give Axion more expertise to work with future partners, and maybe some modular expertise in addition to the BMS that will help future partners during their design phase.

     

    That's great. Still, I would have liked to see a steady stream of small demonstration projects to show that this "bottom up" process is actually underway. We all know that we haven't seen a single such announcement since the Navy Yard announcement in January.

     

    I strongly believe in Axion, and would gladly buy more shares at the current price if I wasn't already massively over-invested in the stock. While my pessimism about the big customers might be disconcerting to some, if the residential product is even moderately successful, the contract business ramps up as projected by TG, and we start to see that steady trickle of demonstration projects or alternately a steady increase in PbC sales that combined get the company to break-even by mid-2013, that should get the stock price over $1, which would go a long way towards putting me at ease.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I vaguely had the faint impression Axion did not deliver the 36 batteries for the US Navy Zero Emissions building on time from a comment somewhere. Is that true? I can't imagine it is, but I wanted to check with everyone.
    9 Aug 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    IIRC During either the EOY 2011 CC or the 1st qtr 2012 CC (I just listened to both)TG stated that Axion completed delivery of the Navy cube. No indication of a late or failed delivery.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    I believe the initial timelines set by the naval administration did not include the solar installation which has yet to be completed. Information on this project is not readily available but you can gather some information on the Siltek FB page...

     

    http://on.fb.me/S4G5sS
    9 Aug 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "I vaguely had the faint impression Axion did not deliver the 36 batteries for the US Navy Zero Emissions building on time from a comment somewhere."

     

    'Twas me that made the comment., BW. And I made it after Scott Sklar of the Stella Group told me the system had yet to be delivered as of early July.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Hey D-inv,
    Just to be absolutely clear, you are stating that, following a conversation with Scott Sklar in early July, Axion had NOT delivered its 36 batteries to the US Navy Zero Emissions project announced earlier this year? If so, was it clear to you whether this delay related to problems at Axion, or to other components of the general Navy project? Presumably Axion would not deliver batteries and have them lie around waiting for other components be installed before the batteries could be used?
    Thanks much
    9 Aug 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Quote from TG from the 1st QTR CC:
    "In January, we delivered and subsequently installed one of our mini-Cubes at the Washington, D.C. Naval Yard."
    9 Aug 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    I did get a response from Shane at SilTek. Follow the link I provided earlier and I think you might have your answer...

     

    http://on.fb.me/S4G5sS

     

    Also, SandEnergy is the contractor doing the work and they have a FB page with some pictures of the installation...

     

    http://on.fb.me/JQNqvG
    9 Aug 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Just to be absolutely clear, you are stating that, following a conversation with Scott Sklar in early July, Axion had NOT delivered its 36 batteries to the US Navy Zero Emissions project announced earlier this year?"

     

    Sklar stated that Axion's contract called for delivery of "a battery storage system" which remained undelivered in early July. That remark was delivered in a face-to-face setting during a conversation precipitated by me noting that I was positively STUNNED to hear in an earlier phone conversation with him that the Net Zero contract remained unfulfilled.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    " I did get a response from Shane at SilTek."

     

    Interesting. I have been trying periodically for more than a month to contact Siltek by e-mail and phone. No success to date. I was considering the possibility they were out of business. Perhaps they only communicate through FB.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, I think they may be far enough along now that they can start talking about it. I have been communicating with them on and off since I was on site around the first of the year. I got the impression that this may be their first project of this caliber (perhaps not)...
    9 Aug 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Tim, Yesterday I found the government site for the Siltek/navy zero emissions contract. It was awarded in late 2010 and the total contract awarded was just under 500k USD. I cannot tell you if the Axion storage contract was inclusive or a subsequent project because the site I looked at only went through 2011.
    9 Aug 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    This is not the site I was referring to but it has the same info. related to the Siltek contract. The other site was a government over site page that had info. on 3 years of contracts awarded to Siltek. Can't find it without more effort but I doubt it's that valuable.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NNBSrc
    9 Aug 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    Thanks iindelco, some new info in there for me...
    9 Aug 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    " Quote from TG from the 1st QTR CC:
    'In January, we delivered and subsequently installed one of our mini-Cubes at the Washington, D.C. Naval Yard.'"

     

    Kent, thanks for that report. Time to lay hands on a transcript or recording of the CC. Since the contract award was announced 1st week of January and the PR reported delivery due before end of the quarter, I'm inclined to think TG misspoke re-delivery with contract signing in January more appropriate.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 8/8/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 235510, AvTrSz: 7597
    Min. Pr: 0.3010, Max Pr: 0.3199, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3067
    # Buys, Shares: 17 82700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3111
    # Sells, Shares: 14 152810, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3043
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.85 (35.1% "buys"), DlyShts 5100 (2.2%)

     

    Well, we (I?) thought the larger sellers might be done but at least one seemed to be back, albeit at a much lower volume than what we've seen in the past. I was really surprised the short sales were so low because I was thinking that the Mega-C shares trustee might be done. Since Blackrock is in certificates, the sellers today likely were either retail holders or the Mega-C bankruptcy trustee, unless Blackrock pre-converted some of their stuff. I don't think it was QQuercus, both because of JP's running totals and we didn't see ~1/11th of volume (~21.4K) in the short sales. Short sales seem most likely to be just normal market-maker handling of a miscellaneous sell order from a retail sale and/or "lures".

     

    The majority of the selling seems to me to not be retailers though. This is because most of the volume occurred mostly in a small block of time and then ended, for the most part. This started and ended at 11:10 when 8 trades comprising 100K shares, all "sells", went off at a VWAP of $0.3026 and included setting the low of the day, which did not occur again. Prior to the (out)burst there were only 3 "sells" (10:22) totaling 25K shares at a VWAP of $0.3104 and subsequent to the (out)burst there were only three more "sells", totaling 27,810 shares at a VWAP of $0.3050.

     

    In spite of the pressure supplied by that selling, price remained relatively stable in the other trades (including a few potential "lures" by the market-makers) at the VWAP seen above of $0.3111.

     

    On the experimental charts front, almost everything is "status quo". Volume continues to hover around the recent averages, short sales continues to trend down, price remains tight and in range at >= $0.30, average trade sizes are holding near the upper end of what used to be our "normal" range.

     

    The only fly in the ointment is the buy:sell ratio continues with near-term weakness, which shouldn't be surprising to anybody. But even that can be interpreted in a positive fashion when considered in conjunction with price activity, daily shorts sales and trade sizes. I'm thinking this is my experimental equivalent of nearing the end of a trend (in this case, consolidation?) with a move in the near future.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I don't say it often, but you do a great job laying out all this information every day.

     

    Thanks.
    9 Aug 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: Thank you sir. It helps keep the determination to do this strong.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Aug 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Axion released their earnings and CC dates for the 15th and the 16th. Interesting to note, unlike A123, Axion didn't feel the need to release the numbers early in the morning and then have the conference call immediately afterwards before the markets opened. So I'm guessing they aren't selling the company to the Chinese! :-) My other hope, considering they left a full day of trading between the earnings release and the CC, is that there isn't any surprises there that would cause a major sell off.
    Get your questions ready!
    9 Aug 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks LabTech. You were first (congrats)... waiting to see how many others were posting at almsot the same time...

     

    Reminder that we can pool our questions on Bangwhiz's blog: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Also a reminder that "can" means it is optional and not meant to impinge on those more independently minded :-P
    9 Aug 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Second quarter earnings have to be filed with the SEC by the close of business on the 14th. I can't remember the last time I saw a company allow a full day of trading between the release and the conference call. The only reason I can see for that kind of pre-planned delay is a critical meeting that absolutely positively can't be put off.
    9 Aug 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    "I can't remember the last time I saw a company allow a full day of trading between the release and the conference call. The only reason I can see for that kind of pre-planned delay is a critical meeting that absolutely positively can't be put off."

     

    Should we speculate worst-case scenarios for the delay?

     

    ... Chicken Little did recently report that the sky is falling.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I was also curious why such a long delay and wondering if bad, good, or indifferent.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    JS---ahh, beware the Ides of August. ha
    9 Aug 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    If it was all bad why would they drag out the pain for two days? On the other hand I am not expecting any bang up sales numbers because I can't imagine they are much different than Q1, so perhaps the delay is to let the market react and then apply some salve on the wound with the CC.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Dithering on bad news can get you sued, so I have a hard time putting a negative spin on the delay.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    What could possibly be that important? And urgent? (Presumably) the timing surrounding the day in question and the requirements for release have been known for a long time.. plenty of time to deconflict the big pieces. So, did perhaps something short-fused suddenly arise to demand all of management's resources on the 15th? Gotta admit, this is pretty curious. Something big going on behind the curtain? Or maybe a big counterparty with a more demanding/inflexible schedule says you will be doing this on the 15th and not that? Or is it just a matter of convenience (and confidence) on the part of Axion itself, showing no worries for the reception of the release, scheduling the call for the 16th due to some internal driver of their own...perhaps a principal or two returning from travel or some other such diversion? Or maybe the company is waiting on some key anticipated event to occur or close, some significant item they'd very much like to incorporate into the call and are willing to wait the day for?

     

    Something must be driving this somewhat extraordinary timing, and to me it's just interesting as hell...

     

    As we've all said before, I guess that's why it's called 'speculation' ;)
    9 Aug 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Should make for some interesting trading on Weds and Thurs.

     

    First they want to hire an ISO Coordinator/Senior Quality Assurance Technician, now they delay the conf call by a day. Hmmmmm...
    9 Aug 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Half price sale on pick yer own strawberries coinciding with free ice cream day in New Castle? 8-P

     

    Just wanna through out all the possibilities!

     

    Hey, It beats making lead carbon sandwiches. Well maybe not.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    WAG - Funding arrangement for a new line?
    9 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    How goofily can we speculate about a single day and the reason the conference call was delayed for a day?

     

    ...meeting with the flippers for the next round of financing...

     

    ...August 15 is the company picnic...

     

    ...meeting with The Chinese is August 15...

     

    ...meeting with Buffett is August 15...

     

    ...top secret meeting with the Department of Defense that day after successful test run by the Navy...

     

    ...TG was invited to Melinda Gates birthday party (her birthday is August 15)...

     

    ...Comcast is coming to hook up Axion's cable TV that day, and they couldn't specify what time they would be coming...
    9 Aug 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    "... Chicken Little did recently report that the sky is falling."

     

    Was that a guest appearance on Cramer's show? Sorry I missed that!
    9 Aug 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    "... Chicken Little did recently report that the sky is falling."

     

    "Was that a guest appearance on Cramer's show? Sorry I missed that!"

     

    ... actually, it was on the Kudlow Report. Kudlow clarified that, "The sky cannot fall, only taxes and interest rates can fall, which will unleash the current bull market."
    9 Aug 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Only thing I can come up with is that the NS order was due in 90-120 days and 90 days was the end of July. So maybe the switcher order is due to be shipped/delivered on the 15th and they wanted to wait a day to say that it is done.
    Ain't speculating fun!
    9 Aug 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Better than expected revenues and/or a major step announced.

     

    This allows for the conference call to be in the spirit of "The winners laugh and tell jokes" rather than "the losers say shut up and deal the cards".

     

    BW is probably familiar with this.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I am still holding with a modest top line beat, and not much else going on.

     

    The revenues and the inventory lines of the QR balance sheet will tell the story.

     

    Mr. APH, be on your toes, as I expect a double APC day on the 15th, maybe even the 16th, too.

     

    My favorite "what is going on the 15th" hope is for a picture of TG, Axion brass, and some NSC leadership proudly standing next to the Altoona yard slug, maybe even a video of it moving. But, I hold little hope of that, as WTB's reports are that nothing is going on.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "WAG - Funding arrangement for a new line?"

     

    Another WAG. The 10Q filed with SEC and related PR re-Q2 financial performance on the 15th will advise receipt of a buy out offer and terms offered. Buyout offer made by the German battery manufacturer participating in the BMW-Ford study results re-charge acceptance reported in Ankara at the LABC, Penn West, or possibly GE.

     

    :-) Give me a few more minutes for creative cogitation and one never knows what flight of fancy surfaces.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I can only agree in principal with JP. Something is going on around that date demanding all of management's attention and they simply can't fit the conference call into the schedule on the day after the 10Q release. It also has to be something major that cannot be rescheduled many days ahead of the 15th of August. My best guess is TG will be traveling on the 15th. Because of European vacation schedules I doubt it involves European auto OEMs.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    flying back from a ski trip to Bariloche (Argentina), no doubt
    9 Aug 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    already had a company party scheduled that was planned and catered by the Secret Service the night before the release of numbers: all the staff members were looking forward to it and so couldn't be canceled.

     

    Five concentrators from now this bit of speculative fun will become a troll factoid as an example of Axion wasting shareholder money.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Bariloche ... very nice.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1963) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Interesting
    9 Aug 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Proof positive that there are no problems so insurmountable that they can't be assumed away by a determined EVangelical.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    When the sales numbers are horrible it leaves writing articles to the subject of how it is all going to turn out wonderful.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... How can you say EV sales number are horrible ... just look to the Ford Focus ... stellar performance;

     

    [quote]
    From January to July Ford sold 89 Focus EVs, not even a car in February, March and April, a clear sign that the EV sales in the United States are struggling. In July Ford has manufactured 121 Focus EVs and 884 from the beginning of the year, ...
    [quote]

     

    http://bit.ly/O7pmZj

     

    I'm surprised we're not tripping all over them and with sales like this (and add in the avalanche from Tesla) I can envision battery pack costs being so low as to embarrass Walmart t sell.

     

    My conclusion is that there are PR firms paying really good money. Geez, I can't imagine why people spend so much time on autos.
    9 Aug 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    !I can't help but wonder how much they are losing per vehicle on the Focus EV. Maybe they are chalking up all the costs to R&D. A pit you can throw money in endlessly with little penalty for cost over-runs!
    9 Aug 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I agree with DRich!

     

    In the first seven months of this year US consumers bought a grand total of 4,184 battery electric vehicles from all manufacturers combined. It seems perfectly reasonable for a prudent investor to expect Tesla to outperform all its competitors combined by a ratio of 2.8 to 1.

     

    After all, Tesla has the Iron Man at the con.
    9 Aug 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    The answer presented in a non public form but captured by a KGB spy now in private practice. (Putin doesn't need him any more now that Russia is a democracy).

     

    http://bit.ly/NM2lFD
    9 Aug 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Yes... but they say the supply of non-buyers will dry up after there are 5,000 battery electric vehicles sold and then sales will take off...

     

    (pardon the dry humor on another day of paint drying watch)
    9 Aug 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    ... a clueless question from a confused soul...

     

    so how are all the car companies paying for all the advertisements for electric cars? are they getting government kicked back to them for EV ads?
    9 Aug 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Jon, I suspect that many are justifying their ad spending on the EV's envisioning them as halo vehicles.

     

    http://bit.ly/NM9Tbl
    9 Aug 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Jon: I believe, about two months ago, I figured GM was spending $1 for every $10 the cost of the Volt, just for advertising.

     

    Of course, that didn't include those two Volts that Jacksonville bought for $18,000.

     

    I truly think that ratio is low, because I have seen on TV at least a couple of hundred Volt commercials this year.

     

    I simply cring everytime I see a Volt commercial. How in the HELL is this mega-million dollar advertising campaign justified? I want to scream, shout, punch and spit and kick and scratch eyeballs about MY TAX dollars being used to put more GDed commercials on prime time TV than Volts sold.
    9 Aug 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "I want to scream, shout, punch and spit and kick and scratch eyeballs about MY TAX dollars being used to put more GDed commercials on prime time TV than Volts sold."

     

    :-) Silver lining? TV commercial time consumed by Volt ads is political campaign air time avoided?
    9 Aug 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    I figure they are chalking up the losses as the cost of doing business in California. It's like the GM Spark EV and the Toyota Rav4 EV. Both companies are planning on making just enough of them to meet their California fleet requirements, so they can get back to the business of selling ICE vehicles.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    I took note of the fact that the author threw out Pike's and Lux's estimates for the costs of Li-ion batteries in 2010-2012 and 2020 from the first graph, so that he could make all his ongoing assumptions without those "little" outliers getting in the way.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Here is some more HYPE news concerning electric vehicles concerning Envia Systems today. This is sourced from Bloomberg:

     

    GM may have electric car breakthrough
    http://tinyurl.com/8r9...
    --
    John has dealt with the claim from Envia Systems in the past, but it's astonishing how much press coverage this claim has received.
    9 Aug 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    FPA

     

    Geez...Hype is right!...2-4 years...50:50 chance...and it merits a headline!

     

    "... breakthrough technology that could power an electric car 100 or even 200 miles on a single charge in the next two-to-four years...

     

    ...Envia Systems, has made a huge breakthrough in the amount of energy a lithium-ion battery can hold. GM is sure that the battery will be able to take a car 100 miles within a couple of years...

     

    "I think we've got better than a 50-50 chance.. "That would be a game changer."'
    Yet..."We can't put all of our chips on one bet,"
    9 Aug 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    Volt ads are selling Chevrolets, not volts. It they can get a few more people to watch the ad, and have a good "feeling" about the volt and the company that makes it. Getting someone in a showroom to look at a volt, will also look at the all gasoline Cruze. Anyone who uses cost as a metric will get the cruze.

     

    When the Prius started taking off, I recall reading of a GM exec who said that it did not make financial sense, but the brand marketing toyota was getting more than pays for development and production costs. If the money came from the ad budget instead of engineering and development, it would more than pay for itself.

     

    On a personal note, I spotted a Volt driving through Death Valley yesterday. That is a place where no one really cares about the source or the cost of fuel. I have no problem driving long distances in a 13 year old ICE minivan, but I don't think I would trust a 13 year old Lion battery to do the same trip. Finally, I do not count the Axion I bought this week in Las Vegas as gambling winnings.
    10 Aug 2012, 04:17 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Possible explanation for the full day delay of the conference call after earnings report release.

     

    TG sold the delay to Vegas bookmakers for gaming the number of remarks about the day one will see on APCs before the CC. :-)
    9 Aug 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Electronic power conditioning to increase LAB life.
    (What ever you do don't question the writer!)

     

    GHEL to double battery-life

     

    http://bit.ly/NgsUGS
    9 Aug 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I pity the fool who would ever question The Greatest tech writer who ever lived! ;)
    9 Aug 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, You betcha! :))

     

    Evey time I read the article I think of butterflies and bees!
    9 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    The article reads like the author cut and pasted sections of it word for word from a Korean product document and didn't bother to correct the grammatical errors. Nice to know you can write about how something is going to be a break-through technology, without actually having to understand or explain any of the details.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    If one suspected they might have to make a big announcement on the 16th, it would be easier to simply schedule the CC for that date.

     

    Of course I have awakened from that dream before.

     

    Not to mention that every time a big announcement is made the price of the stock seems to fall. :-)

     

    Axion Power- A New Powerful way to make paint dry even slower than normal
    9 Aug 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "A New Powerful way to make paint dry even slower than normal "

     

    But when the stock breaks loose, it'll absolutely *blister* the paint and the debate will rage about whether it was the shock wave or the heat ... let me adjust my rose-colored glasses here! >8-| There, that's better!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2730) | Send Message
     
    HTL: don't forget THE HAT!

     

    Keeps out those Negative Waves ;-)
    9 Aug 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Well, for those who wanna get out here, there's about 200k shares bid in total at >= 30 cents. Including the best bid of 50k at 30.6 cents by UBSS. Funny how I always think of European Axionistas when I see UBSS on Level II.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you'd be surprised by the number of European Axionistas.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    At $.30 a share it is a good use of the Euro.
    9 Aug 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Now it's probably 240k. Paint's not dry yet.
    9 Aug 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Paint is getting dryer... volume has been below average daily volume 8 of the last 10 days including today.

     

    However, supply of selling in the .31 to .32 range seems not to be suctioned up yet... *maybe* running dry soon... or *maybe* we're stuck with a seller or two who are patiently holding out for that price range for months to come (seems hard to believe... just like it is hard to imagine who the next big seller is that will torpedo the stock price... but I feel like we've learned to have that kind of imagination)
    9 Aug 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Seems it is. Grass time.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ru67IE
    9 Aug 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I think there's a lot of 'em, but I'm not quite sure why so many--combo of factors, of course, including your many articles and comments, but is a lot of it s/s knowledge? After all, the Europeans are ahead of us on that. So they could be on the investment vanguard regarding s/s opportunities, too. As are the rest of the Axionistas, we hope.

     

    Anyway, pretty cool how the internet has shrunk the world.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    and today, at 1:30pm on a *Friday*, we are over average daily volume...

     

    last 11 days

     

    8 below
    3 above
    10 Aug 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    More Than Eight Million Cars Expected to Have Stop-Start Systems by 2017, AAA Experts Offer Advice on this Fuel Saving Technology

     

    " Finally, the larger and more powerful batteries that are required for stop-start systems will be more expensive to replace when the time comes."

     

    http://bit.ly/Nm41Yz
    9 Aug 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    If it were not for those rich government guys with all "their" money.

     

    Electric car sales lose spark around the world and in Australia

     

    http://bit.ly/NgLcrK
    9 Aug 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Gotta love those economies of scale man, cheaper by the dozen.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    My favorite line:
    "While many blame high prices Mitsubishi i-MiEV retails at $48,800, Nissan Leaf at $51,500 and Holden Volt at $59,990 Australian industry figures point to a lack of government subsidies."

     

    Nah, surely the price of a vehicle doesn't have anything to do with its sales. I mean who wouldn't pay $50,000 for an electric Versa when an Audi A-8 is the same price.
    Cheap seems to be beating cool.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    was looking for comparison. The middle version of the Ford Focus sedan is A$ 25,000.
    9 Aug 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Here metro, Given your comments about dogs and relationships. A personalized song for one possibly seeking less demanding relationships. :)

     

    http://bit.ly/NNDRvu
    9 Aug 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    It is like the old saying?
    "Lock your wife and dog in the trunk of a car: after 30 minutes open the trunk and see who is happy to see you."
    9 Aug 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    I've rarely been able to anger my dogs. women, that's another matter.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Just shows you what it's like to try and sell an EV without subsidies. Plus, Australia, once you get out of the major cities, is a lot of long stretches without a lot of infrastructure. Not a good place for an EV with a limited range looking for the next battery charger.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Please do not mention range anxiety. Like the God molecule, if you cant see it, it doesn't exist.
    9 Aug 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I think you must mean the God particle.
    The God molecule is of course: Caffeine.

     

    "We'll never be free from our Dark Master---the coffee bean!"
    9 Aug 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the correction. Yes, particle it is what I meant.

     

    A most interesting story about that particle. The scientist writing about it called it the god-damn particle due to its evasive provability. The publisher would not allow it to be called that. Therefore it became the God particle.
    Now that they have proven its existence, they have to figure out what it is. You now know my entire knowledge base of string theory and particle formation.
    9 Aug 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I am having an interesting debate in my mind. I learned playing poker to listen to my gut. Accordingly, I got my mother out of Axion at .42 before the last CC with a small loss (she was averaged at .46 on 10K shares.) I was unwilling to let her get seriously underwater again on Axion after having been $7500 in the red at the low last year. I also have an upcoming court date that might result in a forced sale if I lose in court so I can't buy now if I wanted to. Estimated court date Sept or Oct involving co-signature business debt.

     

    My gut told me to sell my own shares before the upcoming conference call back at .35 cents. It would be a 70 percent loss although my position is quite small compared to nearly all Axionistas. The same could be said for my resources also.

     

    I ignored the message from my tummy and haven't sold. Makes me wonder what kind of punishment to expect next week. In poker my gut was invariably right and my brain was dumb as hell. I was chatting with another poker player once about why we called river bets when we believed we were beat? He said to find out if we were right!

     

    Edit: I have the powder available for a serious buy but I am unwilling to commit any more funds without some solid progress and price appreciation. The most AXPW shares I have ever controlled was only 20K shares.
    9 Aug 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Well BW, sometimes we just know things from life experience that cannot be explained. Have you read Blink? http://amzn.to/Qjwwov

     

    While I hope your gut is wrong, I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and thinking.
    9 Aug 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I hope my gut was wrong too because I ignored it. We will soon find out. Blink looks interesting after reading the summary on Amazon,
    9 Aug 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    CBAK (China BAK Battery) announced earnings today for anyone interested. Just thought I'd post it for anyone that wants to see a company that makes AONE look like they are kinda smart.

     

    Mind you that this is a mature company.

     

    http://bit.ly/PI4tOR
    9 Aug 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Why didn't they just shoot off a distress flare for the 10Q report?
    9 Aug 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Pretty ugly wouldn't you say. I think the flare was reserved for their foot or perhaps their mouth.
    9 Aug 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I was just looking at JP's list of stocks in the energy storage sector in Dec 2009. Out of 18 energy storage stocks at least 7 have actually disappeared or their stock has fallen so low (like ABAT) they might as well be out of business. That isn't counting XIDE's fall from $9.41 to $2.96 or A123's drop to .61 cents from $9.54 at year-end 2009. Easily over a 50% casualty rate. Nobody could possibly be attracted to this sector. Something to consider when noodling our expectations for AXPW price appreciation.
    9 Aug 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "Nobody could possibly be attracted to this sector. Something to consider when noodling our expectations for AXPW price appreciation."

     

    :-) Then again, here we ARE!

     

    Maybe Thotdoc has any insights to share with us about propensity of people to simply refuse to accept that could have been completely wrong about energy storage market prospects. That is, are people more inclined to conclude they picked the wrong horse for race than to conclude the race itself was a bad idea? If the former, some of those disappointed investors could exhibit a "hope springs eternally" philosophy and turn to Axion for ego salvation. If the latter, the disappointed investors in defunct/failing battery companies will just fade away (or maybe give Thotdoc some business).
    9 Aug 2012, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    I "think" we stay attracted for two reasons. 1) Our horse hasn't gotten a chance to race yet. All the other companies had or have been in commercial production for several years. Ours is still waiting in the gate and so we are all still waiting to see how fast she can run once the gate opens (or if she is going to come out and pull up lame and have to be sent to the glue factory!)
    2) Start-stop has kind of fallen in our laps. I don't think any of us can say that 3-4 years ago we saw this as the game changer that we now think it is going to be. The PbC is the perfect LA battery for start-stop. We know it. The OEMs know it. They "may" chose to ignore that and go with AGM batteries with carbon pastes and hope the customers will accept this as good enough as they have in Europe, they will go the Li-ion route on higher end vehicles and past the cost along to richer buyers who want the "cool" technology, or another technology will come along that is better. Until we know the results of at least one or both of those things, we continue to stuff our sock drawers, continue to dream, and tell ourselves that we don't need the money for anything else. IMHO
    9 Aug 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... A horse is a horse, of course. Makes no difference your choice if there is no race. I don't know what your trade time horizon is and I can't tell you if my choice of horse's is a winner, but I can tell you the race is real. I've been in this stable since 2007 because I read a paper from some crazy Russian testing a PbC forerunner on the Siberian railroad and a few months later stumbled across Axion. Thought it sounded a lot like this scam I'd had pushed at me back in the 1990's but it fit what I'd read. My race was on. Did I mention, I like trains (utilities are also of interest but now we're talking 50 year product cycles).

     

    Little did I know it would take 10 years ... meh, that's what being too early will do for a body. I can tell you this race is real but delayed because of poor track conditions. Now if your time horizon can't stretch to 2015-2017 or if your only focused on autos ... you may be at the wrong track and with a little more patience you might be able to get out with enough money to drive to the next race & place a small bet. This sector is/has been/always will be a backwater and will depend on things outside of itself for what the market calls momentum. Growth will happen but it will always be under the radar, unless something miraculous happens, but the reasoning you see here is solid and I think for what interests me Axion is solid. It just will never an Amazon, Apple, Chipolte or any other highly touted momo company. For what interests me, I can hardly wait to see the day that the rails wake up to this solution being 85% cheaper than the solution of choice today. Then there is marine (and no one is even aware)........

     

    Is Axion Power International disappointing? To date ... most assuredly but it's not their fault. Besides, my race is underway and I'm a stubborn, egotistical S.O.B and I can prove it by comparing where my entry price is and today's tape.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    DR> "I read a paper from some crazy Russian testing a PbC forerunner on the Siberian railroad."

     

    Tried to find that article with various Google search words and no luck. What was the gist of the article DR? Do you have a link? You are killing me with curiosity!
    9 Aug 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... It is unfortunate that I don't have a link. A Google search on the Russian Academy of Science sites will yield some great papers. Somewhere, I do have a .pdf but there are several other papers published by the Russians on PbC application & development. They will be from the late 1980's to mid 1990's. I'll look for it sometime but I haven't seen it in a few years.

     

    The jist of the paper was that on the Siberian railroads they were having problems with the batteries freezing ... duh! So their idea was to heat them by periodically sending high amperage pulses. This wore out standard LAB's in a very short time so they built a carbon/lead high capacitance battery that anyone that knows the Axion construction would recognize. They found that it not only had the ability to stay warm (and functional) but didn't seem to suffer any. The surprise to them was that it could deliver enough amperage to start a cold engine (apparently the Russians don't idle their engines but cycle the engines at regular intervals) and recovered quickly. These were 2 things that the standard LAB's didn't do very well and froze as they wore down.

     

    I forget how many trips back & forth they did but as I remember these hand made batteries lasted 4 LAB replacement cycles. I immediately thought of the Green Goats and the problems they were having. I mean if it could start a cold Siberian engine it could start an American primary mover motor. From then on I went looking and found both the UltraBattery and Axion. Didn't like the UltraBattery construction and low capacitance but did like the grid storage & HEV testing being done. Didn't know much of anything about Axion but it sounded a lot like the Mega-C and I liked it. Been in ever since but made the mistake of not realizing both were science fair projects. I have learned a lot about start-ups & batteries in the mean time. I vow to never be this early ever again but it is really hard with my new found fascination with graphene.
    9 Aug 2012, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    What a great summary and preview of what the NS field tests may demonstrate if our integration efforts were as least as good as what the Russians accomplished that long ago. While I would like more new customer relationships and sales announcements, I'm putting all my hopes on the NS field trial going well. It seems to be the perfect battery for the application. If it does do well the other stuff, including autos, could come later. I think success at NS in the field tests would get Axion across the last stretch of the Valley of Death.
    10 Aug 2012, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... The rails will lead. Been my mantra for a long time. I couldn't care less about autos if I tried. Anything that is new to the rails has an uphill battle against the status quo, but if the PbC can go 5 years and in switching it's 60-85% cheaper hardware-wise than a diesel with cheaper fuel.... well, need I say more. Next will be industrial micro grid (my conclusion from the UltraBattery demonstration). Central utilities will be along in about 5 years or so. Marine will stretch out more than a decade because this locomotive idea hasn't even dawned on this industry. Axion's challenge is to survive the next 3 years, which will be a neat trick as the whole world seems to be melting, and develop a solid manufacturing alliance.
    10 Aug 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DR. I think when my legal troubles are over and Axion shows any positive signs of survival I'll start adding to my "small potatoes" position, as JP described it. I will say, however, it is all the potatoes I have at the moment.
    10 Aug 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3577) | Send Message
     
    BW,
    You're not alone as a small potatoes investor. My position may be meager compared to most here, but the due diligence I have done on the management and technology makes me confident that in time it will pay off. I am usually too early (I have physical silver also), but figure better too early than not at all. I have a little under another year before I pull Axion out of the sock drawer to re-assess my position. If the silver tops first I will reinvest in Axion and SLW (SLW on the dips).
    10 Aug 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't think I've ever used the phrase "small potatoes" because I've been hearing similar jibes from women for my entire life.

     

    Seriously, I believe every holder is important because I know every holder has to climb the same wall of worry. I view really huge stock positions as risks to market stability, but think every investor deserves the same respect.
    10 Aug 2012, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Any blogs or companies you are following re graphene?
    My apologies...you might have mentioned previously.
    10 Aug 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... This is a good compilation site.

     

    http://bit.ly/P5n5dE
    10 Aug 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Appreciate it.
    11 Aug 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    So, its a difficult environment for established companies like CBAK or XIDE.
    Why then are we so hard on AXPW. They haven't met our hopes and dreams but they have been executing a pretty good game plan.
    I will need to stand back and really analyze whether its my expectations or Axion's that is failing.
    9 Aug 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Since it has only fallen to only. 30 from the 26M capital raise at .57 they are doing far better than most energy storage stocks in terms of percentage losses - and they are still in business versus many others. However, the sector as a whole is a horror story. Even high-flier PPO. Cramer's favorite storage related stock, is less than half its $72 high last July closing at 33.59 today and was just downgraded again recently. In comparison to the sector as a whole Axion is doing great!
    9 Aug 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    The sector may blow now, but I believe a ton of money still sees its huge potential and wants to be in it. Shades of the dotcom cycle.

     

    Some investors will just wait until a clearer picture of the winners emerges. Some won't wait as long. Ultimately, it will be a piling into the few that remain after this shakeout. For good reason--they'll be getting all the spoils.
    10 Aug 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (318) | Send Message
     
    I just read where the 2014 Mazda 6 will have start stop using a standard battery coupled with a capacitor.

     

    http://bit.ly/PIt46n

     

    http://bit.ly/OVfIIb

     

    Those more technical among us can comment on why they chose this approach. I believe one of the European companies (Peugeot ?) also chose capacitors rather than a battery. Does this worry others that maybe there is more potential in start stop for a capacitor system than one with a PbC?

     

    Also, when studying the rail applications for battery hybrid systems I remember one article said only specific routes would hold any benefits. Routes that are mountainous would not benefit due to too much need for conventional power and no time for regeneration; routes in the plains states would not benefit due to never needing the battery assist. The ideal routes would have gentle hills where the batteries could help, then recharge before needed again. So the rail line would need to design systems for specific routes and use the hybrid systems only in those locations. Seems somewhat limiting in potential adoption throughout a fleet.
    10 Aug 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Yes for OTR but not switchers. Then there probably great opportunities in mass transit like SEPTA. Adding capacitors will help with engine start, but not hotel loads which is the real challenge in stop start.
    10 Aug 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Peugeot-Citroen has been using a battery-supercapacitor combination from Continental and Maxwell for a couple years. In connection with their May 23rd downgrade of Maxwell, Wedbush reported, "Conversations with people knowledgeable about the status of Stop-Start programs both in the U.S. and Europe indicate low probability for an automotive OEM selecting ultracapacitors for additional production vehicles in the near term."

     

    Class I Railroads in the US operate 24,000 diesel electric locomotives. Globally the total closer to 100,000 units. The ratio of road locomotives to switchers is roughly four to one.

     

    At $500,000 each, the domestic switcher fleet represents about $3 billion in addressable revenue potential. Depending on assumptions, the domestic OTR fleet could double that figure. Factor in the non-US fleet and you're talking serious money in a very specialized niche.

     

    It wouldn't take much market penetration to generate a healthy revenue stream for a specialty railroad battery manufacturer, especially if you factor in a five- to seven-year replacement cycle on the batteries.
    10 Aug 2012, 06:19 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    John,
    "Factor in the non-US fleet and you're talking serious money."

     

    This is why I just can't get my head around a 34 Million dollar market cap. I simply find it difficult to believe that this group is the only ones in the entire stock market world that see the enormous potential of AXPW, that is right around the corner. I guess when the price pops up to nosebleed heights we will be the "smart money" group everyone always refers to.
    10 Aug 2012, 06:44 AM Reply