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  • Axion Power Concentrator 137: Aug. 14, 2012: Axion Power Announces Date Of Its Second Quarter 2012 Earnings Release And Conference Call 248 comments
    Aug 14, 2012 2:14 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Announces Date Of Its Second Quarter 2012 Earnings Release And Conference Call

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    Updated July 25th...

    HTL's New Chart Tracking Insta

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    From Bangwhiz August 2nd...

    Questions For The Axion Power 2nd Quarter Earnings Report and Conference Call

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    Axion Power's Weighted Moving Average Price and Volume:

    Over the last two years we've had a sequence of unfortunate events where big holders who *should* have been stable became persistent sellers. The list of significant stockholders and groups that emerged on the scene as persistent sellers is lengthy and includes:

    2010 sellers: FURSA; Liquidation Trust; and Small 2009 investors.

    2011-2012 sellers: Winner Estate; The Quercus Trust; Special Situations; Blackrock; and maybe Manatuck Hill

    Most of those sellers are ancient history because they're either out of stock or almost out of stock. As near as I can tell, there's nobody left that holds large enough blocks to push the market around. I find the current volume spike particularly encouraging because it seems to be a final blow out of the last shares remaining in weak hands. Given the number of shares that have already traded this month I think there's a good chance that our persistent sellers will be out of stock before the mid-August conference call.

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close Aug. 10th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through close Aug. 10th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (248)
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  • Me first teach, me first!

     

    HardToLove
    14 Aug 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • You get an apple for being such a good student :-)

     

    (and teacher)
    14 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Looks to me like some people are leaving before the show starts tomorrow morning. Maybe its the usual crowd of sellers. I made the decision to hold the stock because of the rail market. I think it has a good chance of succeeding so I am going to ride it out regardless of the selling action or the upcoming capital raise. If it lose it all then I lose it all.
    14 Aug 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, Glad you are still hangin in there with us. 8-)
    14 Aug 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • That's how I'm looking at it BW - I do believe in the story. It's just slowly developing
    14 Aug 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • I am expecting an very unexciting sales report. Love to be surprised but I don't know how that could happen given the deafening silence out of New Castle. Some think otherwise but I have no idea what that is based upon beyond hopium.
    14 Aug 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, First qtr 2012 net sales were $1.76M. What Sales number are you expecting for Q2? and what would suprise you? We will have 24+ hours to digest the report.
    14 Aug 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Haven't looked at the numbers yet but I expected 1.76M plus or minus 20%. Now to go see what the numbers were if the 10Q is up later down the thread.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • 10:51 AM The U.S. added ~6,800 MW of new wind power generation in 2011, 31% more than was added in 2010, a new Energy Department report says; U.S. wind generation now totals nearly 47K MW. Federal incentives, which have driven new wind installations, are set to expire at the end of 2012; the White House says as many as 37K U.S. jobs could be lost if the tax credits are not renewed.
    14 Aug 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Errr...yeah, that's where I want to put my pension money.

     

    "But a funding gap has emerged because banks are staying away, in compliance with new rules aimed at reducing risk. Wind power plants, particularly offshore farms, are expensive to build and maintain. Regulation is seen to be uncertain and the plants can face logistical and technological problems connecting to the wider grid. Forecasting reliable returns is difficult. Nonetheless, some pension funds are thinking longer-term, to steady cash flow over 20 to 30 years once projects are in place, and have decided to step in."

     

    http://reut.rs/MXzKDn
    14 Aug 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Only if they obtain a (AXPW) storage solution!
    14 Aug 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Bangwhiz

     

    I believe that there is a fair bit of consternation regarding tomorrow's CC, with different investors looking for different outcomes.

     

    Personally, I have been waiting ever so patiently for 10 years for TG to lead this company from the outhouse to the penthouse.
    Based on the present technology and testing timelines (especially in Automotive) and little faith in Rosewater, that leaves us with a maybe on NS (which we already know about anyway).

     

    So IMHO NOTHING is going to re-invigorate this stock right now, because TG will have no value added.

     

    It doesn't matter what we think of Ener 1, Tesla, AONE, Exide etc , because unless we start promoting and selling NOW we will be at .30c or worse, for a very long time !
    14 Aug 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny,
    Q earnings are tomorrow. The CC isn't until Thursday. Axion decided to put it off for a day, for reasons none of us know.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Oh !..thank you, maybe TG is getting a Maniped tomorrow
    14 Aug 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Or flying back from Germany post signing a BMW contract :)
    14 Aug 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny is a self-confessed decade into this journey, so I think he is entitled to a degree of circumspection with respect to TG and the business.

     

    TG May 15th, 2012:
    "Thanks, again, for sharing in these exciting times for Axion. We’re buckling our seatbelts here. It’s full speed ahead."

     

    Let's see if the man is true to his words.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • OK ladies and gents. 5 minutes to place your bets before we spin the wheel err words.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • you can wait for it here:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/NBKodA
    14 Aug 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • The press release said they would be releasing it tomorrow morning, before the markets open. So you might want to take a nap while you are waiting. :-)
    14 Aug 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Quite right. However in

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    JP said they were due by today. I thought perhaps when the "official" press release is offered might be different than the SEC filing.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • They are out!
    14 Aug 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Doh! Serves me right for believing something I read! They are in deed out.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Time is UP, now is time to pour a drink and start the waiting process!
    14 Aug 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • 9. Subsequent Events

     

    In July 2012, we completed the Siltek project for the Washington Naval Yard. The unit has been fully commissioned and tested and is currently functioning on a daily basis. Solar panels charge our PbC batteries and the energy is stored for use by the Naval office building. We are monitoring the project each day and reporting results. The electronics and system are the basic components of our PowerCube technology that we are quoting to potential customers in various sizes ranging from 50kwh to 4MWH.

     

    In August 2012, we executed a distribution agreement with Rosewater Energy, LLC (“Rosewater”) formalizing the residential energy “HUB” sales and marketing arrangement with them that became effective immediately. Rosewater will operate under an exclusive covenant as long as certain minimum sales are achieved. The agreement is three years in duration with provisions for extension. We will be providing Rosewater with a full standalone unit that will include batteries, battery management system, all electronics and NEMA3 housing for the unit. We will be jointly unveiling the unit at the CEDIA show in Indianapolis the first week of September 2012.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • The Form 10-Q is here - http://1.usa.gov/NiohtA

     

    Revenue was $2.75 million, compared to $1.76 million in Q1.

     

    Net loss for the quarter was $1.9 million compared to $2.3 in Q1.

     

    Sales breakdown looks to be $2.09 million flooded and $660,447 PbC and other, compared with $1.34 million flooded and $422,535 PbC in Q1.

     

    Balance sheet looks pretty health at $8.9 million in working capital, down from $10.6 million at Q1.

     

    "We believe that the currently available funds at June 30, 2012, which includes the net proceeds of $8.6 million from our February 2012 registered direct common stock offering and internally generated funds from products sales will provide sufficient financial resources for the current development stage operations, working capital and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2013."

     

    The only thing that really jumped out in a quick review was a new line in MD&A that says "Management, with the advice and consent our Board of Directors, is taking actions to attempt to raise additional funds in order to continue operations beyond March 31, 2013 from sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies."

     

    That's an unusual bit of disclosure and sounds to me like they're hoping for a strategic investor for the next financing instead of going back through the retail brokerage drill.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    I think my prediction was for 350k USD in flooded above Q1 2012 and flat on the balance of the products. So I was pretty off the mark.

     

    I'm pretty impressed by the PBC sales. Do you suspect that the NS order was pulled ahead into Q2 in some fashion? I would not have guessed that but the numbers seem to support it. If not where are all those PBC batteries going? Even at 250k USD that's some pretty significant development.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • John: Well, I'm still reading, but your post looks like part one of satisfying my "Unbridled optimism".

     

    Now for the cc comments.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Aug 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • I like the high current ratio.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • I like the nine-month runway that gives the price time to recover before management has to negotiate details of the next financing.

     

    2009 was a dreadful price negotiation because the number of shares being sold represented 14 years of sell-side volume at historic rates.

     

    2012 was a dreadful price negotiation because a couple aggressive sellers crushed the price during the three months before closing.

     

    With four to six months of stable (or hopefully increasing) stock prices, the negotiation will be far simpler. If the negotiation involves a strategic investor, price may be a secondary consideration with business terms on center stage.
    15 Aug 2012, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • Battery Pioneer: Lead-Acid Is Key to Reducing Electric Car Battery Cost

     

    http://bit.ly/NnUIeB
    14 Aug 2012, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • 56% sequential growth is nice. 50% sequential on PBC's is also good. Assuming this has nothing to do with the Norfolk contract that means there is traction for PBC's somewhere else?
    14 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... "from sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies." Yea!!!! Been wondering when they would start looking for stable, Quercus type, investors. Now that syndicate thing is sounding more plausible to me.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • East Penn?

     

    How does a East Penn - Axion partnership servicing NSC sound?

     

    And a possible second source to an Automaker after have they put pressure on JCI and left XIDE twisting in the wind? :-)
    14 Aug 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • >wtblanchard ... I'd rather read about an East Penn partnership to support RJCorman, NRE, FerroMex, KCS, UP, BNSF, CSX & (just for good measure) NSC. Autos ... I just don't care.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • WTB: I was just wondering the same thing... E. Penn was my pick too.

     

    DR: I love the list.

     

    Thumbs up all around. (Just keep in mind how hard this is to do with turtle feet...)
    14 Aug 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: Funny, but this morning (~02:30 before I grabbed a nap) I was thinking about an East-Pen-Axion hookup as one of the possible reasons TG had to delay the cc. They're close, have a relationship, ... all that stuff.

     

    I think it would be a very attractive relationship for both parties and kill multiple birds with one stone.

     

    But, that's just day-dreaming so far.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Aug 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, A can well understand and appreciate your perspective. But it would be a huge stamp of approval. Painful as heck to get though.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • "Work continues with the hybrid vehicle manufacturers we have been working with for the last couple of years. Third party testing continues under protocol developed with our longest standing OEM partner. We have also been in discussions with a new top 5 vehicle manufacturer regarding partnering with them on advanced stage testing of a two battery system. "

     

    Does partnering imply a deeper relationship than Axion's relationship with BMV?
    14 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • while i remain hopeful, the earliest any of this stuff comes to light is march 2013.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu: if the market is truly a "forward looking mechanism" (touted to be six months or so), that March time-frame seems to be quickly slipping into the window where the market should recognize (AXPW).

     

    I think that puts us all well-positioned, macro-events not spoiling the party of course.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Aug 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma: to me the key is "... advanced stage testing".

     

    That sure sounds like potential earlier entry into fleet testing?

     

    Sounds far-fetched, but if the new party has read the white paper, had contact with others who've been testing, possibly had deep discussions with TG et al about what is known already (without violating NDAs, of course), ... maybe not so far-fetched?

     

    HardToLove
    14 Aug 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting wording ...

     

    "hybrid VEHICLE manufacturers"

     

    Cars. Trains?? Trucks??

     

    "last couple of years" ... the whole last couple or any part of the last couple?

     

    Possible aggregation of applications they can't talk about individually?

     

    My guess is that some of those PbC sales went to CoGen railroad applications, and truck applications for testing.

     

    Although we should remain calm in that some of those "testing sales" might just happened to have lumped into Q2 and Q3 may be flat or less in that category if the OTR contract doesn't come till Q4 (and it might not if they want to test the switcher a bit)
    14 Aug 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Advanced stage testing would also involve system level testing at some point. Remember that they would first start by putting the battery through test regiments in the lab. If all goes well with the component level testing they also need to bring in other suppliers to support system level testing. Might include things like a flooded battery supplier, a starter/generator supplier, a power conditioning electronics supplier etc. They would do system level testing in the lab also before placing the entire mess into additional field testing and eventually fleet vehicles.

     

    That there is another top 5 vehicle supplier sniffing around is a good sign that things are progressing well and there is a need. All the large auto concerns get night sweats thinking about being left out in the cold when it comes to advancements.

     

    Have to find a site but top 5 to me is GM, Toyota, VW, Daimler, Ford. Maybe I'm off on the 5th. Daimler is already doing a 2 battery system and if I recall correctly so is VW.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Wikipedia lists 2010 largest by volume automakers to be:
    Toyota
    GM
    Volkswagen
    Hyundai
    Ford
    I'm going to wager either volkswagen or Hyundai. Hyundai already working with start/stop and Volkswagen because of German connection and Axion working with VDA.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Metro: My first guess was Volkswagon, too. At the SC, it was mentioned that there was interest from other Euro automakers.

     

    Here's what I wrote in my Notes and More:

     

    -- Rather, though, it appears there is STRONG interest from smaller automakers. It is my opinion that the smaller automakers will come out being the smarter automakers, if they do indeed choose the two battery approach using the PbC, and a small cranking battery.

     

    If it is Volkswagon...I am dead glad I was wrong!
    14 Aug 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, I'm surprised by Hyundai. Daimler used to own a big chunk of them. Hyundai also owns Kia. I'd bet VW. VW also has some nice lower volume platforms that would be perfect for a PBC application.

     

    But,

     

    http://bit.ly/O8CY0T
    14 Aug 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • I've kind of had a feeling that PSA might be one of the automakers with whom Axion already has a relationship, nothing to base that on except they have been one of the early adopters of start/stop and already using the Maxwell system which seems to have some shortcomings?
    14 Aug 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • PSA is in a mating ritual with GM. There is going to be larger than traditional capacity rationalization in Europe.
    14 Aug 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • I believe PSA ends up with Opel.

     

    I will take a different tack (just to be different) and propose Ford. Ford has been making good choices lately, and this would be another one...
    14 Aug 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Trip: True. Ford is high up on the list. Plus, they were involved in the Instanbul presentation, if I am correct.

     

    Quite possibly, Ford has been quietly testing the 12V PbC for over two years.

     

    ;-)
    14 Aug 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • >Mayascribe ... I would posit that Ford has been testing the PbC longer 2 years. Remember, it was BMW & Ford that developed the Start/Stop protocol put forward as a standard. That was 2010 and you can't develop a test protocol without a something to test it on. Can't build a computer model with parameters without real world data.
    14 Aug 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: That's what I said! "...for over two years."

     

    I believe the Istanbul presentation occured in 2010. So, we both may be right.
    14 Aug 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • >Mayascribe ... Having been nearly in the front row for this picture show, we've seen the definition of "fast-track" in the auto industry play out. With that in mind, I'd venture to guess Ford has been playing around with the PbC since 2008 (possibly earlier).
    14 Aug 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: Will not disagree. But I will add that the PbC has undergone some significant changes since then. The 16V 30HT is proof.

     

    Then, there is this new patent with the electrode hanging out there.

     

    Do not doubt that Ford testing is 2008 old.

     

    Arrrgh! "Fast track" has been excruciating -- like driving the Baja in a 2 cylinder Ambass"odor." But, it does appear we're getting to the end of the peninsula of "whether or not."

     

    We are not years away now, only months away.
    14 Aug 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • The automakers started coming to New Castle en masse in the summer of 2009 after Axion did a poster presentation at the AABC. Before that, it was very hard to get anybody's attention.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Very quietly. Too quietly. I always have to remember that it is Ford Europe vice Ford USA.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • My revenue projection was well off, but I added a caveat in the past of up to 2.5M if it included NS. Regardless, it is a good number at this stage and some of the 10Q statements quoted above show real promise of future progress. I'm a happy camper for a change.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Searching between the cushions for the seat belt? :-)
    14 Aug 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • WT> Not a bad synopsis of my forward thinking. For once in a long time I'm happy with a 10Q.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • I see they added a "going concern" statement. Why the need to add that? That will likely add costs in future financial negotiations.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • I've been sitting in the car with the seat belt fastened for long enough that I have to use the facilities, but am afraid to get out as I might get left behind. Positive developments in 10Q on which I hope TG is able to expand at CC.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • FPA, I'm sure there are firm rules on when this needs to be applied.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • "Going concern," if I am correct, has to be indicated, if a company must raise money within one calendar year.

     

    When Philip Baker used this term last year, the stock plummeted ~ ten cents almost immediately. Guessing that won't happen tomorrow, as I think this time around, going concern has already been baked in.

     

    ####

     

    I'm very much liking how 6 month product revenues have nearly doubled YoY. And it looks like East Penn will continue ordering flooded batts at least through the first Q of next year -- that timing is intriguing, as that's possibly when Axion may switch manpower from flooded to PbCs.

     

    -- In March 2011, we announced that we had received a series of orders for the production and immediate delivery of flooded lead-acid batteries. The batteries will be branded by the purchaser, and will not carry an Axion Power identification label. Orders through the second quarter of 2012 have been 100% on time. We have been advised by the purchaser that their purchase of these products is expected to continue into at least the first quarter of 2013.

     

    I also love the 50% chance of obtaining another million dollar grant, with the possibility of far more down the line.

     

    Another aspect that gets my juices flowing is the point Articula made -- a 50% increase in PbC sales; to whom?

     

    Plus, another major OEM checking us out is fantastic news. Adding what we learned during the shareholders conference has been reconfirmed that other RRs are interested in the PbC.

     

    All around, a pretty darned good report.

     

    Still more waiting to do, buy my sense is that Axion share price is really going to take off as spring 2013 arrives.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • The going concern language is generally required if a report doesn't show at least a full year of runway. This one shows nine months. It's a very conservative approach for management to take, but certainly preferable to the Tesla approach of saying "What, me worry!" to one month of working capital and two months of equity.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Wikipedia definition of "going concern."

     

    http://bit.ly/Rf2OaT

     

    New FASB stuff about going concern:

     

    http://bit.ly/Rf2M2E

     

    I also looked into several going concern legal requirements. What I learned is that there is no regulation that requires stating a going concern is going on.

     

    But, from my quite naive investing knowledge, I still believe that any going concern comment by management means either another cap raise will happen within one year, or bankruptcy looms -- unless of course, some agency/investor deems the IP rights and patents worthy of investing, no matter how badly beaten up a company is.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fisker gets new CEO

     

    The retired chief engineer on the Volt from GM

     

    http://nbcnews.to/SjLJYm
    14 Aug 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • So he already has the prerequisite of a good fire insurance policy on his garage and house.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • He will not be welcomed into the GM advanced battery development lab as they are still gun shy. Suffering from nightmares of being slathered in A1 steak sauce.
    14 Aug 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • BCI Start-Stop Panel Demonstrates Progress by Lead-Acid Industry

     

    "Finally, GM’s Mark Rychlinski offered a presentation on next generation 12V battery considerations from an OEM perspective. In his presentation, Mr. Rychlinski provided an overview of increasing demands on battery systems, the importance of regulating voltage control, and the impact of advanced vehicle controls like start/stop and “drive-by” systems (which include brake-by-wire and autonomous driving). While his presentation noted that failure rate/fault detection of the battery for redundant power needs will be a factor in the near future, Mr. Rychlinski did state that GM would produce according to consumer demand and that it would be likely that a range of power solutions could exist for different world economies."

     

    http://bit.ly/Mw58at
    14 Aug 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • OK, so I know it's silly to say, but since no one else has said it yet I'll be the one to speculated it...the reason why Axion put off the conference call until Thursday is that the "sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies" is going to make an announcement tomorrow announcing this investment deal and Axion can't say anything about it until after they do.
    Yes, I know...way too soon. But it was still fun to say. :-)
    The other question is if all those PbC sales are finally going into auto fleet testing.
    14 Aug 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Given the way the NS order was discussed, I don't think the NS revenues were a Q2 event.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • Well that would be huge. Where the heck are all those PBC batteries going? That's a whole lot of testing.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • It's important to remember that my estimate is for 'PbC and other specialty batteries."

     

    To arrive at the estimate I take total sales for the quarter ($2.75 million) and go to the disclosure in the 10-Q that says "We had one customer that accounted for 76% and 86% of product sales for the three and six month periods ended June 30, 2012, respectively ..."

     

    With $2.75 million in total sales and 76% of that number going to one customer ($2,091,415), that leaves $660,447 for PbC and other specialty battery sales. It's a crude estimate, but the best I can come up with.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • Ahhh OK, So if someone chose to do so might they go back during some time frame and get a feel for what classic battery sales might be directionally for a period of prior 10Q's? Would you think classic sales might be pretty steady state in Q2 over the years Axion has owned the New Castle battery facility? It would be a good piece of info. to have.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • Your wish is my command. For the last six calendar quarters my calculated values for PbC and other specialty battery sales are:

     

    Q1-11 – $310,633
    Q2-11 – $373,862
    Q3-11 – $293,638
    Q4-11 – $242,912
    Q1-12 – $422,535
    Q2-12 – $660,447

     

    The numbers are a bit lumpy, which is to be expected at this point, but I'd say the ramp is looking pretty good.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • Legacy specialty racing batteries wouldn't ramp like that. Somebody is buying PbCs. I think even Bang would be pleased (a bit =).
    15 Aug 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Wouldn't the Q2 results probably include the $450,000 sale to NS plus the ZEB (Zero Energy Building)?
    15 Aug 2012, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Oops,
    John, didn't see your above comment and can't delete mine.
    15 Aug 2012, 04:09 AM Reply Like
  • John, Thanks so much. You're too kind.

     

    So if we look at the most common quarter (Q2 2011) to disregard seasonal effects in LABs we have some pretty significant growth in PBC sales for testing. Or maybe even even an installation of a PC somewhere. I'd lean toward the former because the latter would probably have been an announced event.

     

    I'm with the others. They're wearing out a bunch of power supplies, ammeters and voltmeters now.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • OK, I'll take a WAG on why the delay. Axion has been selected my USABC to do development work on the battery for 12 VDC SS system.

     

    "The deadline for both RFPIs is Friday, July 27, 2012."

     

    It's about time for a decision.

     

    http://bit.ly/NGLhGs

     

    OK HTL, Here's your TFH back.
    14 Aug 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco, I've got spares - keep as long as needed.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • jeez. Was surprised to see the results today. However, every time I buy a large chunk of any stock the pps tanks so I should have known. The next two days should be interesting
    14 Aug 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • The last going concern statement led to a huge sell-off. Except for existing major sellers any retail buyer who didn't have a probable going concern statement already baked in. I can see the mud at the bottom churning in anticipation of morsels drifting down. I would buy now, but my hands are tied until my creditor court date is behind me sometime in September or as late as October.

     

    On the negative side, it never fails that when the Axionistas like a 10Q the market goes on a selling binge. The existing sellers just suck all the air out of the room.
    14 Aug 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Bang: If selling off occurs tomorrow, or the next day, I'm buying.

     

    Thing is, who is going to drop, sell shares in the 100s of 1000s? Data suggests that there are only three million plus share owners that are left selling. It just may be only one.

     

    We have Quercus, Special Situations and BlackRock.

     

    Time to dust off my church pew theory. Just in case.

     

    In my opinion, there are two more times that Axion can be bought on the VERY cheap, now, and after the next cap raise.

     

    I'm thinking to split whatever I choose to invest more into Axion between now, and post the next fund raising, regardless of share price.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • The "last going concern statement" showed up in the September 2011 Form 10-Q along with some fairly grim 'seeking financing' language just as a couple big holders began their push to be out by the end of the year. I'm not at all sure that I'd be drawing too many 'cause and effect' conclusions from the correlation.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • If the next financing round is a strategic investor rather than a brokered deal the second opportunity will probably not arrive because strategic investors don't fight over price pennies. They're far more interested in deal terms.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • The best potential strategic investor would be one of the potential automakers that will use the PbC, or, some outfit like JCI, or GE.

     

    Talk about a mental or pocketbook orgasm...

     

    Unfortunately, I'm not reading within the language you posted above with any conviction that some bigwig is ready to pounce.

     

    That should have already happened. However, I highly doubt that any of the big boyz know what we know, with all the amazing data and articles linked within these APC threads.

     

    However, let the candidate discussion begin. Because, if the PbC gets the attention, is used by any OEM...look out.

     

    Zoom, zoom, zoom.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • It is very unusual for a Form 10-Q or other SEC report to specifically disclose plans to seek financing "from sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies."

     

    The language is very different from what we've seen before and my inner lawyer would be very reluctant to pass on that kind of wording without a pretty clear idea of who, how much and when.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Also unusual to disclose that tidbit and then delay a conference call for 2 days (maybe while ink drys). Can we be so lucky? Nah....
    15 Aug 2012, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • The delay between the earnings release and the conference call strikes me as very unusual. It could just be a scheduling problem with the conference call provider, but my guess would be that somebody's traveling and unavailable. I suppose it's possible that there's news pending, which would be a lot of fun, but I'm happy with a solid quarter and prefer the low expectations explanation.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Maya: Mega-C shares trustee may still be selling?

     

    But with ~445K shares traded yesterday, that may be ended, as well as all the selling. Volume spikes often (but not always), signify end of a trend, in this case sideways.

     

    My averages through Monday, 8/13, for 10, 25, 50, and 100 days were 376K, 412K, 310K, and 305K. Yesterday's volume percentages of those are appx. 118.4%, 108.0%, 143.5%, 146.1%.

     

    More significantly, possibly, is the increase of the average of the 5 days preceding, 225.03%.

     

    Buy:sell was 1:4.82, only 17.2% "buys". Short was only 11,257, 2.53%.

     

    Combining all that with an overshoot of the strong bottom that had been demonstrated, both recently and in prior times, of $0.30 to $0.29, it's a strong possibility. The last time we hit $0.29xx, 7/19, we started an uptrend that over 4 days went as high as $0.35, 7/25.

     

    That was without the support of what I believe to be a good report and a (pending) good cc.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • John: the old "expect the worst and hope for the best and you can't be disappointed" adage I hold near and dear.

     

    In this case, the "worst" is likely a "good enough", at the "worst". :-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    I've decided that the reason that Axion chose to wait a day for the CC is because they wanted time for all us Axionistas to go over every word in the document and pick it apart. That way we would have all our questions lined up for the CC and they wouldn't have to worry afterwards that we would be discussing the same questions over and over again later because we didn't think about them before the CC.
    Hey...it's a theory! :-)
    15 Aug 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • (With thick Irish accent) – And a fine theory it is!
    15 Aug 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • "In my opinion, there are two more times that Axion can be bought on the VERY cheap, now, and after the next cap raise."

     

    If the next cap raise is from a "strategic investor" and associated with PbC sales, the follow-on share price could well be higher.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • With a thicker Scottish brogue, add "laddie" at the end!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • "from sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies."

     

    I think I would like for this to be a battery company, or NS. I don't think it would be an auto company because then problem with exclusive rights, etc.and none of them have finished testing yet.

     

    NS, since they have patent rights, may view investment as solidifying supply chain, plus get additional revenue from patents on hybrid locomotives.

     

    As pointed out earlier, could be any number of companies that fit this description.

     

    I noted the word sources, so maybe more than one investor.

     

    Any big battery company investment, could certainly take out a substantial amount of down side risk.

     

    Sorry this is so disjointed. Just some random thoughts.
    15 Aug 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Metro, you are really good at understatement!

     

    "Any big battery company investment, could certainly take out a substantial amount of down side risk."
    15 Aug 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • NS makes no sense. It has to be a battery company that services OEM in some of the primary automotive markets. NS is a good start but automotive gives access to the scale to roll this out. I've not looked at who this might be base on the larger players. First I'd look at East Penn as I don't know how much if any OEM automotive they have.

     

    Of coarse my fear, as expressed many times, is that OEM suppliers in the LAB field may not want to support something that lasts so long. Just good enough is what they want.

     

    Of coarse, and John has brought this up, They could part it out base on market segments as well. But alas a full scale agreement would be better I think. Because you don't know where and how fast it will mature in each of the various market segments.

     

    So TG will need to search for the force.

     

    http://bit.ly/SoSFDw

     

    Oops, source, Never mind.
    15 Aug 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • >OK ... With all this guessing about " ... sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies.", No one I've seen has put forward another obvious choice .... a big utility. I mean, Xtreme Power has a strategic partner in Duke Energy for the No Trees, TX wind farm ... why can't Axion? Duke is more than just a customer, so I understand.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • OK DR,
    Its aliens, they have to recharge the dimensional fractionalizer.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • >Stilldazed ... I like that idea. Great application even if it turns out to be just a galactic niche market.

     

    A quantum leap in storage technology.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • I found two other things of interest in the 10-Q. First, the term PbC had a trademark symbol by it. I find this interesting, since we've seen other companies that are advertising lead-carbon batteries and they've had PbC trademarked as well. Wonder if Axion really has it trademarked or not?
    Of more importance, I think...
    "We continue to evaluate the market for smaller Cubes for residential and community storage and larger Cubes for utilities, oil rigs and other larger applications such as solar and wind. We anticipate establishing additional formal marketing agreements for some of these applications in 2012."
    Sounds like they think there are going to be real PowerCube sales this year, and/or it sounds like they might not be using Rosewater for all of them.
    14 Aug 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Axion definitely owns the PbC trademark, or at least the USPTO says they do!

     

    http://1.usa.gov/PX13rF
    15 Aug 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, But I keep seeing PbC used heavily with Ultrabattery news releases from many sources. Seems to be used for carbon enhanced LABs like Kleenex is used for tissues.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • PbC is such an easy shorthand that a lot of folks use the trademarked term in technical reports, which isn't necessarily a bad thing or a trademark violation. If we start seeing somebody using the term PbC in connection with product marketing, I'd expect to see some legal action taken. This niche is narrow enough that the risks of Kleenex or Xerox type trademark problem are lower. You also don't want to see SG&A driven up by legal fees for harmless references in technical papers.

     

    I'm confident that legal counsel is monitoring the improper use of a trademarked term and Axion will act to protect its interests when necessary.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Volkswagen Das Auto ! 2:1odds

     

    Hyundai (el cheapo) 3:1
    14 Aug 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • From the consolidated earnings statement there is this line item.

     

    "Foreign Currency Translation adjustment"

     

    Not significant values by quarters but it shows sales activity in non US currency. Supports ongoing activities. Euros anyone?
    14 Aug 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    I'm guessing coconut carbon?? from Japan and didn't we see battery cases were imported too?
    15 Aug 2012, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: Here's this about battery casings, from my trip to New Castle during the last SC:

     

    -- Sidebar Note -- Inventory: Remember that "small mountain" of empty battery casings I witnessed at the PowerCube unveiling? Well, there are still some battery casings stacked on skids. 62 skids in all, 13 holding 30HT casings. But nothing like how many there were back in November. It also seems that Axion is now having them made domestically, rather than importing them from China.

     

    I could easily crunch out the exact numbers of both PbC and 30HT casings, but to me, it really doesn't matter, as another casing order could arrive next week, or next month, an obvious eventuality.

     

    ####

     

    The labels on the skids were from a domestic provider. Not China, as before.
    15 Aug 2012, 04:02 AM Reply Like
  • I'm sure this has been discussed in detail and I've missed it. But, what is this?

     

    The LC Super Hybrid: Optimizing Engine Technology to Deliver ‘More from Less’

     

    This technology is currently on display in the new LC Super Hybrid demonstrator vehicle, which was commissioned by the ALABC at AVL Schrick in Germany, with strong support from automotive technology companies Controlled Power Technologies (CPT), Valeo, Provector, and Mubea. Based on a 1.4 liter Volkswagen Passat, this vehicle combines a next-generation lead carbon battery with Valeo’s electric super charger and CPT’s enhanced starter generator. The LC Super Hybrid keeps CO2 emissions low while generating a very high torque, demonstrating that downsizing a conventional engine in this manner can have a significant environmental impact without minimizing the driving experience.
    14 Aug 2012, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • It's a demonstrator model from the ALABC with an electric super charger supported by Exide advanced lead/carbon batteries for energy storage.

     

    http://bit.ly/MYM8TA
    15 Aug 2012, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Basically a car ICE is over sized for acceleration so therefore it's inefficient most of the time when cruising or idling. So if you can super charge for brief acceleration and do SS a much smaller engine with a more efficient power scheme is developed.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc,
    Yes, this was discussed in detail. In a nutshell, Axion was offered to provide the batteries for the project, but turned it down because were concentrating on other projects. Additionally the LC Superhybrid was built to showcase the products of CPT, and not necessarily the batteries.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks to iin and met for answering.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • "...duplicate string testing on our PbC batteries ...have confirmed our claims of string “self equalization”. Simply stated, this means that one of the unique characteristics of our PbC batteries is its inherent ability to equalize battery (even cell) voltage during charging at any rate. This is particularly important when the PbC is used in large string configurations (such as the locomotive, or the PowerCube) where the string is only as strong as its weakest (lowest voltage) battery (i.e. the string output is reduced by the lowest performing battery)."
    What is the difference between equalizing battery voltage; and string voltage being reduced by the lowest performing battery? Does it mean a string without this feature would go dead if just one battery dropped to zero voltage during charging? Any clarification appreciated.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Will you knock it off, John? I want to scoop up some 27 cent shares tomorrow! ;-)
    15 Aug 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Maya: Fat chance. See my note above.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • >rgh: I believe the "string voltage being reduced by the lowest performing battery" comment is an amplification and/or clarification of the comment about the PbC having good string equalization.

     

    It gets sorta battery geeky beyond this point. Imagine a weak battery that loses all of its charge before the others in a series string undergoing discharge. The discharged battery (or cell) is then driven into reverse voltage by the current delivered by the other batteries in the string. That will typically destroy a battery and may cause other undesirable events like a gas discharge or excessive heat in the damaged battery. Gross damage (fire or a ruptured casing) can be prevented by some type of battery bypass device, which is required on every battery and therefore costly. But the affected battery is still dead and the string voltage drops by one battery.

     

    If there are strings in parallel, the one with the dead battery is now unbalanced from the others. Again, battery management systems can handle the problem, but at some cost in efficiency and probably energy storage capacity.

     

    The best approach, as delivered by the PbC battery, is to have the string "self equalize". That means the weak battery gains more charge then others when the string is charged. It's inherent in the chemistry (and physics) of the PbC design. The odds of a battery failure in the string is therefore much less.

     

    I'm going to hazard a guess and say that the overall cost of the storage system will be significantly lower with the PbC, as opposed to other LA types, for an equally reliable system. The difference being the lower cost of the simplified battery management system. I can't back up that statement with a citation, but it makes engineering sense.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • It's my understanding that the real world impact of self-equalization is fewer battery replacements. From discussions with Joe Pic and others it appears that replacing failed batteries is the biggest maintenance headache for large string user. If the batteries work as a team where the stronger ones help keep the weaker ones in the game, it can make a huge difference in day-to-day operating and maintenance costs.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • The perhaps finer point about stringing PbCs is that from afar, Axion Power can right now tell an owner, be it a Colorado cattle farmer, or some wind or solar power company, exactly which battery is the weak one.

     

    As far as I can denote, only two PbCs have ever failed, and that was due to some a-hole employee, who was fired.

     

    One thing we've rarely talked about, is the revenues Axion will get from "monitoring" from afar the BMS.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • The battery replacement issue is apparently a big one for end users and that's the reason the latest video goes through the exercise of showing exactly how that task is done. Users want battery replacement to be something a field hand or roughneck can do without needing a highly trained technician.

     

    Back in my oil and gas days we used to joke that you could lock a rig hand in a room with three bowling balls and within a half-hour one would be missing and a second would be broken. The bottom line is that the closer a system is to idiot proof, the easier it is to sell.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    Were they PbC's that failed, or LA?
    15 Aug 2012, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: I may stand corrected. Possibly they were flooded batts, and not PbCs.

     

    Pretty sure Al Marshall caught that info at the SC, this past June.

     

    Where are you Al? Help!
    15 Aug 2012, 03:33 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, I did not see anything that enabled Axion to identify defective batteries from afar. Any details? Agreeing with MetroN below, I am pretty sure that the two failed batteries were standard batts, not PbC. I understood (assumed?) the defects were identified by the customer and returned.
    15 Aug 2012, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • Rick: maybe insignificant since a wi-fi hotspot with OTS parts and software would allow remote monitoring, a la (CPST)?

     

    With that stuff being so cheap these days and commonly available, I can't imagine they wouldn't have included the capability, at least as an option. Maybe no mention as it would be a minor part of the BMS?

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, Metro, and Rick,
    Maya is misremembering the conversation in the battery plant.
    East Penn was very happy with the excellent quality control of the flooded batteries produced. One misfit employee did not do his job well and a few lead acid batteries got through to East Penn. The employee was fired for poor performance. Nothing has ever come out about a PbC failing.

     

    I was impressed at the plant with the quality control.The plant is old, noisy, hot and dirty as you would expect. Working conditions are not like they are at the bright,shiny, environmentally friendly PbC production center.
    To have employee morale high and great quality control at the lead acid battery plant speaks volumes for Axions management.
    15 Aug 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, a semi-sophisticated BMS system should be able to communicate. No disagreement.

     

    Actually identifying which battery in a long string is defective is a different problem. Other than having a separate pair of data (sensor) wires to each battery, I am not sure how it could be done. Hundreds of pairs adds complexity and are likely do be damaged or misconfigured as batteries are swapped out. Anybody know a better way?

     

    The 500 kwh PowerCube has communications. The ResPC, at least version discussed at shareholders meeting, does not. The slide show said it would have communications in the future.

     

    Of course, the bio-carbon battery itself does not have any self-testing or communication ability, and probably won't for a long time, if ever.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • John, I had a coworker that built an induction heating station for applying a locking collar to an output shaft that needed no electrical adjustment. He had dealt with prior processes that had all kinds of process adjustments to regulate temperature. He explained to the techs that no temperature adjustment should be required and that any adjustments required where mechanical which he showed them how to do.

     

    In spite of this he knew they would be unrelenting to get into the electrical panel and screw around with the thermal adjustments. So, what he did to prevent this was he put a potentiometer on the panel door and labeled it for temperature adjustment. It wasn't wired. You should have seen the number of times the people indicted that they adjusted this setting even though they were told not to. Oh, And many times it was rubbed in his face that it fixed the problem.

     

    In the industry the far too often half educated adjusting of process variables is called "hunting". I hope today the stock market will be hunting AXPW with a scatter gun. A little action would be nice for a change to recent investing activity here.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Rick: "Actually identifying which battery in a long string is defective is a different problem".

     

    Yep. That gets me wondering about alternate ways to do it that might be less sophisticated and expensive. Adding a three-color LED to the battery or the terminal connectors in the wiring, or better, a sensor that sends a signal along the existing BMS wiring?

     

    Seems both simple and cheap enough. Or maybe there's some kind of isolation IC that could be incorporated into the BMS wiring that allows selective reading of strings and/or individual batteries.

     

    OTOH, with the self-balancing nature and reduced failure modes (thanks to the C and the new grid being used and diamond coatings?), it may not be worth it.

     

    Here's the question though: considering all that, other than data collection, is any failure being detected? To justify remote monitoring, ISTM that (approaching) failure needs to be detected. And that implies identification and/or isolation of the defect so that the maintenance work is as time and cost efficient as possible.

     

    So I'm thinking they already have this implemented in their system.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • We used to see the same thing in the biodiesel business all the time. The chemists would specify the correct reagent mixture and Bubba would throw in some extra caustic soda for good measure, and turn 5,000 gallons of oil into soap.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Most modern BMS do in fact monitor individual cells so that the BMS can adjust cell-specific charge and discharge rates and keep things balanced. I can't speak about Axion's BMS, but these systems can be extremely complex.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • If the bio-carbon is as self-equalizing as reported, I'd go with "none". Tesla has a tremendously complicated BMS system (that they are very proud of), yet the system still bricks. Tesla's system is pretty good, I guess, since no Telsas have blown up like Karma.

     

    Just put an infra-red sensor to monitor a big bunch of batteries for excess temperatures, and you would know if you should go test them individually. Bad batteries almost always get (too) hot when charged.You know the output voltage and amperage of each string, of course, so you know if a string is failing under discharge, too.

     

    I like simple, cheap, robust.

     

    Yes, one could build a sensor into the battery case with some electronics for each battery. Pay more, add some parasitic vampire load, and then you get to worry if the sensor is working. Remember, we are talking about systems with thousands of batteries.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • I wonder if there might not be a more elegant, sophisticated way to locate a problem battery within a given string... send a ripple current or AC signal of a certain frequency / waveform (or current pulse "ping") down the string, (of much smaller magnitude of course and superimposed over the DC) and then try to analyze the return signal or standing wave for response, phase displacements, distortions etc ... and thereby deduce the location and magnitude of any cell impairment...
    15 Aug 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • That's like trying to kill a mouse with a laser guided missile.

     

    I'd just use the Modicon controller they are already using for the BMS function. They need it for other system related controls anyway. Might be over kill for the home PC though.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Rick,

     

    In the Axion video about changing the PbC in the powercube (http://bit.ly/N3AaCi), Mike Romeo at the 6:30 point in the video, as he reconnects the PbC, hooks up a terminal with a second smaller wire and says something about reconnecting "after the battery management system."

     

    Is the smaller second wire the BMS lead that monitors the actual voltage of the individual battery in realtime?

     

    If this is the case, then it seems to me that the BMS is already designed to monitor the individual batteries and can report if a battery is not able to charge at the same rate as others in the string.

     

    If the cells within each battery are self-equalizing by nature, then the BMS can simply monitor the health of the individual battery, rather than at the cell level, and report when it cannot pull its weight in the string so that it can be changed out.

     

    Does this sound right?
    15 Aug 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Rick and HTL: In conversations with Enders, that's the plan. Axion, I believe, right now, is monitoring the Naval installation, from afar.

     

    Why no fees for monitoring in this Q's balance sheet remains a mystery to me.

     

    Who identified the defective batteries I don't know about. Upon further reflection, it almost has to be LABs, because I recall someone putting a ratio on the two that were defective against batteries that were proper, and the ratio was very low (two versus many made).

     

    Also, didn't TG install some "rat out" incentive program?
    15 Aug 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • I have a hard time imagining a good BMS that doesn't independently monitor the batteries, but without more knowledge there's no way I could describe how Axion's BMS works or what it does.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for clearing that up, Futurist!
    15 Aug 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks SHB and everybody else. It continues to amaze me the depth of knowledge available here (so easy, even a caveman can get it) and how it is freely shared. Even better, the data learned continues to reinforce the belief that PcB is going to be the blue-collar workhorse of energy storage. Thanks again.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin, yes it does sound about right. I remember seeing individual wires going to each battery with a small matchbook sized plastic case for each battery. We were also shown the battery monitoring system display and were told it could be remotely monitored...
    15 Aug 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, So are you saying that the instrumentation for each battery was in a small package at the battery and was wireless back to some central processor?
    15 Aug 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco, they had someone standing guard at the edge of the battery section so I could only see into the first compartment and I didn't think to trace the cables. I do remember clearly the small plastic case with small gauge wire and come to think of it, one case could have been for multiple batteries. I doubt the case was wireless but I suppose it could have been...
    15 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Tim.

     

    Yeah they could be doing wireless or more likely multiplexing signals to conserve on wiring.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, I believe a short range wireless system combined with a very simple voltage measurement "instrument on a chip" could be manufactured in quantity for under $15 each. One would attach to each battery and be mounted on the battery rack. The battery would supply the minute amount of power needed to run the monitor.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • SM, you are right. The second wire is for monitoring, so they decided (with more knowledge than me) to monitor each battery. Good catch.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Sili, there are several ways to monitor it; wireless is certainly one way. SMaturin pointed out in the video at 6:30 (also visible at 4:59) a wire connection on each positive terminal.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Battery status monitoring is quite simple in a system like this. Since the design has to accommodate both serial pack and parallel pack configuration, monitoring of the voltages requires only one wire per battery. The common is one wire for all batteries. Current monitoring is not necessary as voltage status will indicate the charging status and/or any defective battery. Should the charging current status be required, the processor can get the differential voltage between two adjacent batteries in the serial mode or voltage across any battery in question in a parallel mode and divide that by the known internal impedance of the battery. The resulting number is not an absolute number but a number that can be used in the comparative mode to pin point the defective battery/s . This way, the status of any battery within the system is readily available to whoever is interested. Implementation of the monitoring hardware is very simple. The match box size box should have enough monitoring wires for each stack/roll of batteries as designed in the system in question plus the common and, an I/C chip with analog switch plus an A to D converter. The synchronous signal for the switch will be fed from the processor in BMS and the digital data of the battery voltages will be fed continuously to the data bus where the processor can analysis it in real time or store in data storage for future analysis. Total cost of a match box with interface cable and monitoring wire should be less than US$10,00 in quantities. ( Note: This monitoring box is universally applicable as it contains no proprietary information. Axion can design and build it and sell to all battery system makers, if they haven/t already have one.) The other end of this box is connected to a data input multiplexer inside the BMS box.

     

    If temperature of the batteries are desired, a temperature sensor can be taped on each of the batteries and using this "match box ", temperature data can also be put on the system data bus for analysis. The power to the " match box " can be from the battery power using zener regulator ( just pennies ! ). This way battery detection can be had up till battery voltage falls below less than 5 volts or when the I/Cs cease to function.

     

    Wireless function will require more $$ and is not necessary in a box like PC. Hope this is helpful to all.
    16 Aug 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Many thanks for the education. You need to comment more often ;-)
    16 Aug 2012, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa: very helpful!

     

    As John said, you need to comment more often ... or suffer the consequences! ;-) Like maybe having to do fun things for yourself, pay attention to the kids and/or better half, ...

     

    I know we all appreciate your contributing.

     

    Thank you!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting to note that the also say they are getting constant data from the Navy's mini cube that they can then use to showcase the system to other potential buyers. I'm surprised the Navy is letting them use data from their facility. Either they don't consider the data to be a DOD secret that needs protecting or the Navy wants the data out there to justify their zero-grid plans.
    15 Aug 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech,
    I think the data gathered at a Naval office building under the program is intended for public consumption. The government's plan to import less fuel down the road includes the business community building smarter less wasteful buildings. The armed forces can be the leader by implementing pilot programs at the bases and buildings.

     

    I wouldn't be surprised to find that the Navy is required to publish the energy data from all buildings under this program.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Sentiment change exhibited already?

     

    Instead of the usual 3 or 4 MMs lined up around $0.31/$0.32 offers pre-market, we see only two and they are showing $0.335, 2x5K ATM.

     

    It's early, 07:57, but no sign of EGRO, FANC, UBSS yet. NITE, which returned yesterday, IIRC, is there and, as usual, also on the other side bidding an optimistic $0.2903.

     

    A spread this wide is not usual, even pre-market.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • I hope that yesterday was the last time I could buy Axion at $.29.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Shoot. EGRO is back at $0.305 offer. Must not have gotten the word yet.

     

    UBSS offering at $0.34 and TEJS got off the $0.335 and went to $0.355. Maybe EGOR (sic - shades of Dr. Frankenstein) will finish their coffee and start to go with the flow.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Quantmonkies are the natural enemies of turtles...

     

    I really hate those things.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • In the art of war, mating and investing, to name a few activities where it applies, deception is a major tool.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Yep. "Deception" is a quantmonkey's middle name...

     

    Except that I think in quantum mechanics, there is no middle, just "ends"...
    15 Aug 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • If somebody's going to sell come hell or high water, I'd rather see him sell to my bottom feeding friends for $.30 than for $.35. Those nickels may not mean a thing to a seller, but the turtles and catfish love em.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW) 8/14/2012: EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 62, MinTrSz: 125, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 444854, AvTrSz: 7175
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2988
    # Buys, Shares: 23 76474, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3006
    # Sells, Shares: 39 368380, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2984
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.82 (17.2% “buys”), DlyShts 11257 (2.5%)

     

    Commentary delayed – may put something up late today.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • I'm beginning to think that the rotten egg in the room is Special Sits. At least the others are going away at some point. Special Sits is the game player.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Funds only play games when there's a profit to be made. I don't have Level II information available, but I will draw your attention to the Form 8-K Axion filed for the February offering. – http://1.usa.gov/RgnS0L

     

    You'll note that the third paragraph discloses that the placement agents were Philadelphia Brokerage Corporation and Emerging Growth Equities, Ltd. It also discloses that the placement agents got part of their commission in shares. I think you'll find that EGRO is the same Emerging Growth Equities, Ltd.

     

    While I want the selling to abate, it's hard to criticize a broker for taking his pay-day when he agreed to take it.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Yep!
    EGRO M Emerging Growth Equities, Ltd. KING OF PRUSSIA, PA 610-783-4796

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • I should go visit ERGO, only about 10 minutes away from where I live.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, Able was I ere I saw ERGO?
    15 Aug 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): OK. PR has been out about an hour. Saw EGRO move up to $0.305 as NITE moved down to $0.304. Early trades stayed >= $0.304 until just now when two "crossing trades" went at $0.30 for 8,014 trades each, setting what I think is the low for the day and the only time it will be seen ( xxx <-- fingers crossed).

     

    Best offers now ARCA and EGRO $0.305 5K each, then a big gap to $0.32 from ATDF (oops, just moved to $0.31) and FANC and NITE at $0.32.

     

    So, "What's It All About Alfie"?

     

    Smart buyers are eating this stuff today. 'Course, most of them are right here and already sated. Other smart buyers will wait a few days to let any anticipated momentum get established, make a near-term high high and have a little pullback before buying. I think that's what we also saw last time we hit $0.29 before bumping on up to ~$0.35.

     

    Sellers, as John pointed out, don't care and will offer the last near-term opportunity for a while. E.g. just now ARCA presents $0.3025, ATDF is at $0.3049, EGRO is holding (their water? ;-)).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry HTL, but the game just changed...
    15 Aug 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • on pace for a million shares in volume...

     

    welcome to dumpsville...
    15 Aug 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Slurp!

     

    At $.2945.

     

    The catfish smacks his chops.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Alright catfish, krill, turtles and bottom feeders
    http://chzb.gr/PkpGSZ
    15 Aug 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Definite sentiment change - I put in several buys at rising prices and folks keep jumping ahead of me.

     

    I'm going to let it set now - don't want to help the seller or hurt Axionistas that may be trying to get in.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Finally got some shares sub-30!
    15 Aug 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • I believe we are seeing some gamblers flipping the stock when nothing dramatic happened with the quarterly... We may see this phenomenon until we finally DO have some drama.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Plenty of sell supply today, with already 'overindulged' buyers only biting at ultra-low prices. Sellers just want to get out and move on.
    It's a numbers game until these guys get out. No one asks for the casino financials playing blackjack.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/N3uDeW
    15 Aug 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know about the rest, but I don't recall signing a release for my photo to made public!
    15 Aug 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • I was most impressed with the feeding discipline. Wait till the chow sinks low enough in the tank and exert a downward pull with each bite instead of pushing it back to the surface.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Great video! I once went swimming on the Rio Negro, just above Manaus. Right after I climbed out, the captain threw over a hook from where I had jumped in and caught half a dozen piranhas. We ate them for dinner; I was lucky I wasn't their dinner.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Did you notice how the pace quickened as the supply started running out. Then the carcass hit bottom and all hell broke loose. :)
    15 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Lurking as always...

     

    Ever ready to drop my average share cost.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • I know it's a bit quirky, but I remain convinced that volume is the only thing that matters because shares that get bought today are not likely to see the light of day for a while, unless a buyer comes along at a high enough price to send you digging through the sock drawer.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • My sock drawer, while commodious (after all, I have 4 turtle feet) is not where I am storing Axion...

     

    It has a place of honor in my bomb shelter (polar opposite location of my sock drawer).
    15 Aug 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • My sock drawer is way too accessible and I look in there every day. Moved my AXPW to the top shelf of my closet where I am more likely to forget about it...
    15 Aug 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • "but I remain convinced that volume is the only thing that matters"

     

    I share this sentiment and think that we have a few million shares left to get sold by the bigs before we are out of the dog house. Just my humble opinion after looking at sales since July 10. Hope I am wrong.
    15 Aug 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Been busy elsewhere but back for the next day or two.

     

    Regarding the ability to monitor individual batteries within the string, I have just seen the Youtube video of Mike Romeo swapping out a battery. It is clear that there is a red light gauge wire connected to at least one terminal. Surely that might be part of the battery monitoring mechanism.

     

    I note that the share price is still around $0.30. I am amazed that it has remained at that level as I really did expect that the Mega-C liquidator would have no real regard for the sale price. Whoda thunk it?
    15 Aug 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Albert, I suspect you are correct. The smaller gauge wire is the sensing lead going back to whatever their instrumentation of choice is. Most probably to read voltage. Modicon has analog input modules that would suffice for this purpose.

     

    As for the price. Well that's far less obvious. I checked after awhile this am to see if I'd worn the TFH inside out yesterday.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Oh well, relax and take 3 deep breaths of fresh air. I suspect it's loaded with"Pet Rock" dust. Sorry to anyone that is too young to remember the "Pet Rock".

     

    "Philanthropist Chen Guangbiao blasted for selling canned air"

     

    http://bit.ly/OiKzNc

     

    Nothing like being so philanthropic that you can donate some money from the sale of every unit in a scam. What a guy!
    15 Aug 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe I could go into competition with him and sell imported Swiss air from someplace chic like 10,000 feet up the Eiger or Matterhorn. Heck, for the right price I'd even be willing to do a modest compression.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • He's not the first. This is being done in many cities as a touristic gift. See Prague for example: http://bit.ly/OwkkWB
    15 Aug 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • If you sell it in China, will they accuse you of dumping and slap tariffs on your cans of air?

     

    What happens when a country has a balance of air trade deficit? (Cue giant sucking sound.)
    15 Aug 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • I'm thinking more about a mass market approach like a Mountain Air bar in Manhattan.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • You are on the right track, JP...

     

    "Artisan" Air. Get a celebrity to sip a fine wine, and include the Artisan Air in the all-adverb advertising blurb...

     

    Look at what the fantasy "most interesting man in the world" has done for a Mexican beer brand...

     

    Of course, then there are the obvious tie-ins for specialty artisan airs that will make your sex life more interesting... "His" and "Her" air...
    15 Aug 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • In the US I would pull a vacuum in the can and sell it as light air. Hell, the young people would buy it like crazy. Might even call it zero calorie beer, bottle it and bump the price up.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Is the D.C. franchise still available?
    15 Aug 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ford Motor Company : Ford's Investment in Electrification Center of Excellence Delivers New Jobs, Better Fuel Economy, More Choice

     

    "The rapid growth has not only brought together a large group of talented and smart engineers, it has brought together innovators from diverse backgrounds. Many have experience in aerospace working on jets, rockets, missiles, satellites and unmanned aircraft. One engineer even spent time in the driver's seat of the Goodyear Blimp."

     

    Help Wanted. Rocket scientists a space cadets. :)

     

    The space cadet is testing the PBC's for SS.

     

    http://bit.ly/Pd8Wxx

     

    Top article on the page.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Well, this seems fair. China buys America's A123 Li-ion battery company, so Ford buys one of China's heavy truck companies.

     

    "China is the world's largest market for heavy trucks, with nearly one million units sold last year, more than North America, Europe and South America combined. While sales of heavy duty trucks are slowing because of surging freight rates and China's slowing economy, Ford said it's optimistic about the segment given China's long-term economic growth potential and strong investments in infrastructure by the government."

     

    http://bit.ly/OwqfuL
    15 Aug 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • ...Then there's the millions of migrant laborer truck drivers who can be counted on to age the truck fleet very quickly...
    15 Aug 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • If the Mississippi River keeps drying up, what all those barges are carrying will have to be moved by truck.

     

    Already, barges are only traveling at 75% of weight capacity, because otherwise they will bottom out.

     

    Apparently, the river is at record lows, and many barges have run aground. In parts, only one barge can pass at a time, causing "bargejams."

     

    Shipping costs are skyrocketing; another factor which will affect prices, everything from coal to grain.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • >Mayascribe ... The Mississippi, that is NSC territory. Good terrain for hybrid OTR consists. What barges carry is a lot of bulk (gravel, grain, corn oil, chemical ... )
    15 Aug 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Yep. Reminds me of the show, "Connections."

     

    Mississippi drying up leads to more revenues for NSC, which leads to NSC fast tracking the PbC for saving fuel, which will go up because coal can't get to electrical plants.

     

    I like your thinking!
    15 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Hey, I think this might just be the thing to get the US economy back on track. We could go to DC and can all the hot air that is coming out of the House, Senate, and White House! I would think one small can would be enough to carry your average hot air balloon across the Atlantic. Plus you could sell it during the winter to warm up the inside of your car. Think about all the gas you would save. You wouldn't need to run the engine and the heater to warm your car, just jump in, open a can of "DC Hot Air" and you'll be able to drive to work in shorts!!!
    Of course we'll have to put a warning label on it, so as to make sure none of the cans are opened in Antarctica or around the North Pole. Too big of a chance of melting all the icebergs and flooding all the coastal cities around the world.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Don't go getting distracted on me LabTech. Remember you promised to work on that green electron filter for me. I'd hate to lose sight of the prize for something as trivial as hot air.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry John, I've got to make some calls and find out where I can get some cans and some labels. I'm already thinking about spin-off products. If I do this right, I can go around to all the Presidential stump speeches by the candidates, and the debates. That way you can also buy your own can of Mitt Romney Hot Air or President Barack Obama Hot Air depending on if you are a Rep or Dem. Though you might always want to buy the opposition's party's can, since most people always think that the "other guy's candidate" is the one that's full of hot air!
    15 Aug 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • I would be very worried about quality control... I don't think we have six-sigma politicians for consistant output, and I think sometimes the product is mixed up with gases from another orifice.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Rick: "orifice" LoL!

     

    We can re-label as "Classical Gas" or call it "D.C. Petard" (Thanks to Willie Shakespeare(sp?)).

     

    http://bit.ly/SnXL2T

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • No worries. That just means we can use the term "all natural" on the label.

     

    Truth in advertising.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Further Oval Orifice puns will be reported as abusive.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • You meant, of course, "Oval Office"?

     

    Come to think of it, little difference between the two sets of emissions.

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Aug 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • I'm interested in anyone's thoughts on how Rosewater/Axion will be able to protect the IP of the cubes once they sell them residentially? I remember Axion being severely protective of the batteries - how will they insure the batteries will not be tampered with once they are on a residential rig?
    15 Aug 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Articula, There is no way to protect them once they are out. As I understand it from talking with KT the difficulty really resides in the processing of the carbon and the sintering of the carbon sheets. Everything else is probably far less special. But hey, That was the intent.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • The batteries are protected by patent protection. That is protection one can achieve only in court. The manufacturing process of the carbon electrode is something a company can only learn by expensive time and experience.

     

    Your thoughts that Axion would worry about someone tearing the battery apart and studying it is probably a false worry.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Articula,
    I reread your question and am not sure I interpreted your question correctly. Rephrase it for me if I misunderstood.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • And remember, that's why Axion has taken the time to also patent the design and production of the carbon electrode, so that some other company can't just take it apart and try and duplicate it. But the reality is that, at some point, they have to be less worried about someone trying to copy it and more worried about selling the thing. If they sell enough of them they can afford the lawyers for the lawsuits after that.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Remember though that the Axion patents are only good for the markets that they chose to patent in. As such they would be careful to control information on the process and also samples for as long as possible to make it harder for the unprotected markets to piggyback their efforts. Never make it easier for the thieves.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks iin - obviously the carbon sheeting is the reason the PBC is special. So the process itself is what they are trying to hide.

     

    Thanks again
    15 Aug 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • We had a real good idea of how the electrode assemblies would be built by 2005. Figuring out how to build them with consistent performance and quality is far easier in the talking than it is in the doing. Nobody's going to be able to copy the PbC without duplicating the entire R&D process and getting the same lucky breaks.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I knew I would have to stay alert this week after falling asleep last week. Almost 200 comments in less than 24 hours.

     

    Onward to the next APC...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Aug 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Flux Power Completes High-Profile California Study of Extension of Electric Vehicle Battery Life

     

    "Much of the market growth is being driven by the increasing adoption of lithium battery solutions, as provided by Flux Power for electric vehicles and grid management. Lithium is widely expected to supplant legacy lead acid technology over time due to numerous advantages including quality and price."

     

    http://bit.ly/N10pz9
    15 Aug 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Does Flux Power make a Flux Capacitor?
    15 Aug 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • They're a brand new player in the sector with an LiFePO4 chemistry that did a reverse merger with a shell in June of this year. It looks like there are about 42 million shares out with a market cap in the $80 million range. I haven't been able to find financial statements but Flux looks like a good company to avoid for the next 12 to 24 months.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • I believe Flux uses a double secret sauce for their chemistry which is far better than the typical secret sauce used by most lithium ion companies.
    Where do these guys get 80 Million from investors?
    16 Aug 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • They didn't get $80 million from investors. In fact recent filings show they're selling stock at about two bits. The $80 million figure comes from multiplying shares outstanding by the price - which will no doubt come under pressure very soon. I have nothing against shell deals. In fact, that's how I took Axion public. I just have enough experience with shell deals to know that you don't want to play the game until the market stabilizes and that usually takes 18 to 24 months.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the explanation.
    It makes sense for companies to use a clean shell although an unintended consequence seems to be, that forever, it is used as material for crap slingers on the Yahoo boards.

     

    Anyway thanks for the timing tip on newly created companies. Never know when that can come in handy.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • "Yahoo boards": swearing is prohibited in the APCs! ;-)) Usual term is something like "that other board", to avoid drawing eating flies.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): 8/15/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 89, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 764351, AvTrSz: 8588
    Min. Pr: 0.2860, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2975
    # Buys, Shares: 62 547839, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2989
    # Sells, Shares: 27 216512, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2942
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.53:1 (71.7% “buys”), DlyShts 155100 (20.3%)

     

    Set a new low for the time I’ve been doing the experimental charts, since February.

     

    However it was not the minimum VWAP, which sits at $0.2939 from July 19th when volume was ~743K, daily short sales were about 103K (13.95%) and “buys” were only 25.5% (a ratio of 1:2.92). That was in a period when the averages for short sales were generally much higher than the current readings (see below), the four from 7/19 being 34.13%, 26.97%, 25.67%, and 22%. We suspect, now, that all the big sellers were in during that time-frame and, specifically, the Mega-C shares trustee should have been very active.

     

    Note how well VWAP (prior 5 days were 0.3067, 0.3068, 0.3080, 0.3021, and 0.2988) and buy:sell ratio did in spite of strong selling pressure. There were apparently lots of folks awaiting these prices and/or were influenced by the quarterly reports showing decent increases, which were expected, in the revenues and the commentary.

     

    Disclosure: I was one of those awaiting these prices and added, including today’s purchase, 60K shares the last couple of days. I am, however, rather distraught that I paid $0.0035 more than today’s VWAP for the first bunch the other day. My bottom-feeder status may be in dire jeopardy. I may never recover from the psychological damage inflicted by this misstep. ... ;-)

     

    I have to wonder what is the exact meaning of the daily short percentage being at the low side of our averages the last four days. These days were 23.2%, 21.3%, 2.5%, and 20.3% (today). The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are 18.96%, 25.78%, 25.00%, and 22.22% respectively. ISTM the likely scenario over multiple days like this is that Blackrock and/or Special Situations, both of which I assume have good “connectivity” with market-makers and experience little or no delay in getting shares into market-maker portfolios, are in the market. This assumes that the Mega-C trustee doesn’t have that, which has been my guess.

     

    I should note that some time back I had taken a long-term average (from 11/11?) and calculated a running average of 36.3%, IIRC. This period include the time which we know included heavy selling by multiple entities including Special Situations, Quercus and Blackrock(?). ISTR there was another, but I can’t recall it and also can’t recall if Mannituck(sp?) was involved. Anyway, since I started this experimental intra-day tracking (February), a very rough visual inspection suggests that “normal” is in the lower 2x% area so far.

     

    However, I can’t say we’ve ever seen “normal” behavior yet.

     

    IMO, today’s volume suggests confirmation of my assessment the other day that the volume spike said our trend, consolidation, was ending. With the second day in a row of increasing volume, regardless of price action, I believe we are at an inflection point. Some lower price may be possible, but I think it will be minimal movement lower and maybe none at all. Using past forays into this price range as a template, I think we’re likely to see a trend up begin soon. However, if Special Situations is, indeed, acting like a swing trader, as I suggested recently, we’ll likely see at least a pause around the $0.35-$0.37 area (from memory – haven’t looked at the charts in detail yet). And if Blackrock joins the fray around that area, it may be more than a pause. These effects could be ameliorated by any general improvement in market-awareness of Axion, caused by the reported results and today’s upcoming conference call. It may be today’s buy:sell is demonstrating that this awareness has already arrived for some portion of that market.

     

    I’ll stop here as I’ve not gone into depth looking at either traditional TA or my experimental stuff.

     

    I’ll have my experimental instablog stuff updated in a half-hour or so.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... Thanks ... as usual, very interesting your data tracking is. I agree that the volume, FINALLY, is suggesting a trend finish. I guess now we will get to see if JP's theory of share exhaustion on the sell side holds. Shouldn't be much more than 2 weeks (or less) to get confirmation. I think we have seen AXPW at the bottom.

     

    Just finished listening to the CC and all I can say is it about as good as it gets for forward looking prospects. TG was probably right saying this year would be very exciting ... for him & the company. Looks like our turn will take a little longer. Share-wise there are at least 3 levels of resistance that need to be worked through levels that are not that far from here in price but are large percentages.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • The next few months are going to be a real education for me. I've been through this drill before as companies ate through overhangs of a couple million shares, but I've never seen what happens with a 50 million share overhang like Axion's. In reading the concentrators I don't get the sense that many will be interested in selling for modest gains like you typically see in momentum plays. If the bulk of the buying has come from people with multi-bag expectations then those expectations may send the market blasting through the resistance points you'd normally draw on a chart. All I know for sure is that I'll be more educated when the next few months are in the books.
    16 Aug 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • V
    17 Aug 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Actually, I'm kinda hoping for:

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

     

    But like I said, my prior experience involved supply and demand imbalances and inflections that were an order of magnitude smaller than the one Axion is close to rectifying. In other words I know a lot about the behavior of squirrel monkeys but have no experience with gorillas.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • "The next few months are going to be a real education for me."

     

    Yes, and for me, and I guess for all of us, too. Nothing like what we Axionistas do here has ever happened before with any company in the history of the stock market universe.

     

    There is no where on the I-Net, both benign and highly informed, for any company, where a gang of "shortpockets" from all over the world buy the things out of the whatever the deep pockets decide to sell, at whatever the pace they decide to sell.

     

    We are perhaps the smartest living sponges on the planet.

     

    Our kindred friends have been waiting, also....

     

    http://bit.ly/MBDMzI
    17 Aug 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Sheesh! The above comment was edited by Seeking Alpha. I did not use the word "things." I wrote, "...where a gang of 'shortpockets' from all over the world would buy the cr@p out of whatever the deep pockets..."

     

    SA switched it to this: "...where a gang of "shortpockets" from all over the world buy the THINGS out of the whatever the deep pockets..."

     

    Just not right!
    17 Aug 2012, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • next time go with kraap. we'll know what you mean. ;)
    17 Aug 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • If Axion does what I think it might do, the stock, my blog and these Concentrators could end up being a "case study" at Wharton, Harvard or Stanford. There are way too many people who study things like TA without ever considering *who* owns the stock and what happens when *control* over the market finally passes from the hands of short-termers to the rightful owners of a company.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu,
    Guess I'm maybe a few million years behind the times, or you hit the wrong key accidentally on your keyboard and published it, but does the V mean victory? However, if in England, giving someone the V sign has nothing to do with victory. Also notice Jon Springer was writing Ve. Is that the same, or maybe you can't speakk for him? Thanks, and sorry for ignorance.
    17 Aug 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • only speaking for myself...

     

    V, as in a V shaped recovery on a chart... (something pundits have mystically transferred to a "v-shaped recovery of the economy")

     

    I could have chosen a J shaped chart, which may be closer to the final goal, but with my name starting with J, I didn't want to be that egotistic

     

    thus... I meditate to the letter "V"... which does also conveniently stand for Volume and Victory, along with having that nice V shape
    17 Aug 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • It all makes sense now, thanks. A few neurons short here.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • I always preferred a backwards L but everybody has their own favorite letter.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • V,J, backwards L all work. interested in how quickly we get to 42 cents.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Before we get to $1.25?
    17 Aug 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Our old friends Quercus still have 10 million options at 75 cents. I hope they will be as disciplined as nowadays when price hits 1.25.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • A block of warrants like the one held by Quercus raises all kinds of thorny securities law questions that make open market resales of the underlying common stock unlikely.

     

    First, they don't have much time left with 2,857,143 expiring on January 14th; 1,904,762 expiring on April 6th; and 4,761,905 expiring on June 29th.

     

    Second, warrants have to be exercised for cash before the underlying stock can be sold, which means the holder's proceeds are limited to the spread.

     

    The typical way to exercise a block like this one would be for Quercus to negotiate a block sale of the underlying, and then have Axion file a registration statement for the transaction. It's not terribly costly but it is complex and time consuming.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • metro

     

    ...that Ve was curious to me as well...I thought from some ad...
    17 Aug 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • I was thinking of lizard aliens.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed, Tell us what you see in this famous painting. Kind of an ink blotch test so be careful big brother is watching. :))

     

    http://bit.ly/OH1zjj
    17 Aug 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • My first thought was the zip lining pig

     

    Veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
    17 Aug 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Don't know what it has to do with insurance but it is cute.

     

    http://bit.ly/OH3TGY

     

    Vee Vee Veeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • My mother-in-law.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Stilldazed. Now instead of a quick outcome to the analysis it's gonna take days! Well, maybe not. :)
    17 Aug 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
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