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  • Axion Power Concentrator 139: Aug. 16, 2012: Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012 244 comments
    Aug 16, 2012 1:30 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012

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    From Bangwhiz August 2nd...

    Questions For The Axion Power 2nd Quarter Earnings Report and Conference Call

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close Aug. 10th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through close Aug. 10th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (244)
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  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    1st
    Thanks to all Axionistas who phoned in today.
    16 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1927) | Send Message
     
    Your response time was 2 minutes in true Michael Phelps style you edged out CO3's 3 minute mark. (He was probably still talking about air :-)
    16 Aug 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    Shoulda seen this coming...

     

    Nice group of questions and comments today
    16 Aug 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    My Verizon call dropped. Pleasures of living in the boonies.

     

    On another topic, stupid selling ...

     

    Even before the CC, buy:sell was 1.56:1. OK, no reason for sellers to read much into that is there?

     

    Now buy:sell is 3.82:1 with price having move solidly to $0.30 the last 40 minutes, and it had begun to creep towards that well before 13:05.

     

    Do sellers raise their offer? Nope.

     

    Take advantage folks.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: volume 507K already. And somebody just dropped offer to $0.2996.
    16 Aug 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    VFIN just placed a 100k bid at .2996; 15k traded, w/ 85k left.

     

    Edit: the 85k just traded. Didin't last long. Another 100k of selling gone.
    16 Aug 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Another bit of negative ...

     

    "he's just not THAT into you"

     

    He being NS.

     

    Not surprised, just frustrated. I think that goes for Tom also.

     

    Sounds like we're chomping at the bit to build and deliver and they can't be bothered.
    16 Aug 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    WTB: For some reason this reminds me of the dawn of personal computing, when IBM detailed one of their youngest (and most expendable and least popular) people to work with the unknown MicroSoft to build a "toy" computer...

     

    Just because we can see where the future leads, or even the head office does so, doesn't mean that the huge company doesn't hold some powerful skeptics certain its all just a waste of time.

     

    Organizational inertia is a powerful force.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3633) | Send Message
     
    WT,

     

    Agreed; some may assume that Axion is the bottleneck but I think it is NS and auto that are slow playing things. Axion wont expand until the oems green light us. Hopefully are strategic partner comes soon as that will mean that we can get out of the slow lane.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    AMEN!!!
    16 Aug 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    WT and Bazzooooka,

     

    Agreed. I was really worrying last night that it was looking like all the delays were on Axion for not delivering the batteries in a timely fashion. Either someone at Axion read my questions, or something, but it was pretty obvious that TG wanted to make it clear that in no way were they the hold up on any of these projects. The comment that they've got product waiting to be shipped to NS when they ask for it made it clear they are just looking at the phone and waiting for it to ring!
    16 Aug 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Lab: What bugged me about a lack of clarity regarding how Axion has batteries that are ready to ship to NSC, is that if they are already made, then they are not "brand new" when delivery is requested.

     

    As a wordsmith aspirant, that's how I heard it.

     

    However, I'm guessing that the activated carbon sheeting and the bio-electrodes are being stockpiled, such that around a 1000 batteries could be assembled, charged up and shipped within days.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    Flooded batteries start to deteriorate within a couple months after they're built, which is one of the problems you see when they're shipped long distances on a slow boat. AGM type batteries like the PbC are much more durable in terms of shelf life and even a battery that's been sitting on the shelf for a couple months is still brand new.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I took it more as, "we're making and stockpiling electrodes, and we have other orders for test PbC batteries that we are filling on a semi-regular basis, so if we needed to, we could redirect those until we got the rest of the order made and shipped". Wasn't exactly the way it was said, but that was my interpretation of his comments.
    17 Aug 2012, 05:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Allow 72 hours for "formation" IIRC.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of slow boats ....

     

    http://bit.ly/P2NwAo
    17 Aug 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    So, per TG, in the short run, we have the NS intial order fullfillment and intial OTR,(and they bought a "couple hundred" PbCs in Q2; interesting), residential orders taken starting early next month (via a subset of the 12,000 installers the Rosewater guys have worked with in the past), and PCs.

     

    This is the fill-in-the-holes between giant orders activity we have discussed here before. IMO, the filling stuff can start to add up nicely while we wait for the huge orders that knock your head off.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    I missed the webcast, can somebody fill me in on why Hyundai is the second big name after BMW?
    16 Aug 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    axion-nl

     

    You can hear the cc now as follows:

     

    For those who are unavailable to listen to the live broadcast, a replay will be available for one week and can be accessed by dialing 877-344-7529 (domestic) and 412-317-0088 (international) and using conference number 10016934.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    axion-nl, Prior to the cc Axion said they have been in discussions with a top 5 automotive company. During the cc they indicated Asian. Thus Hyundai. Of coarse...

     

    http://nyti.ms/S0GXDi
    16 Aug 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1927) | Send Message
     
    How do you guys figure on it being Hyundai? just trying to figure out why top 5 and asian makes it Hyundai.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Unlikely its Toyota...

     

    That would be interesting, though.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    jak, speaking only for myself, I figure, just who else could it be? Freakin' Toyota??? Better sit down for that one if true. So I mean, who else is top 5 *and* asian?
    16 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    Hyundai is a guess.

     

    The Form 10-Q says Axion has launched an advanced testing program with a new Top 5 automaker. In today's CC Tom clarified that the Top 5 automaker was Asian. Since few of us have the ambition to even dream that Axion might be in advanced testing with "T Who Shall Not Be Named," Hyunai is the only other choice that fits the Top 5 class.

     

    I'm personally pulling for the Big T.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3633) | Send Message
     
    "T" is like using the name Voldemort. That'd be awesome if somehow we made their radar.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    The Big T already has the P, and my sense was that they were moving more in that direction - caution, just my own feeling with no base or source of info for it.

     

    Would be happy for it to be the Big T, but would be more than satisfied with the Korean producer who produce some 5,700,000 vehicles per year..
    16 Aug 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    For me, the S. Koreans move faster than the "Big T". I think Axion would benefit sooner if it was Hyundai.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    OT - Today's other conference call.

     

    Last week I received an inquiry from TheStreet.com's editor who wanted to know if I'd be interested in becoming a contributor. We spoke for almost an hour before today's CC and we've agreed to give it a try for a couple months with a weekly piece. Since TheStreet wants exclusive content and they're offering an entirely new audience, I plan to revisit several themes that I've discussed on SA over the years and try to keep the articles a bit shorter. It should be an interesting opportunity.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Best of luck JP. I hope your readership grows.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John, you deserve it.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Congrats. You've certainly earned it. Hope it pays handsomely.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, JP.

     

    Hope you can and will say some nice things about Axion, given their favorable position within a couple investing themes!
    16 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3633) | Send Message
     
    Congrats,

     

    I hope you get to name drop Axion now and again. I will watch for your articles =)
    16 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    Simply awesome, John! Gotta think how the new venue is surely now going to put certain of your ideas right center in front of some, uh, rather influential eyeballs...
    16 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    Congrats. Have fun with the new crowd!
    16 Aug 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    None of these sites pay enough to make it worth the work. While SA has a contributor comp plan, they want exclusivity and I've been reluctant to give that to anybody.

     

    I'm doing this because the blog brings in new potential clients.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Congrats John, when is the first article due? 8-)
    16 Aug 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Knock their socks off John.

     

    You could start by addressing CNBCs short discussion of AONE's woes today in which they blamed it on lack of demand for batteries and noted AONE had received government loans.

     

    Thanks to you (and others here, of course), I have more of a clue than does the "professional" on CNBC.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    http://bit.ly/PrUQG0

     

    This concludes the two turtle salute! :)
    16 Aug 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    JP, you WILL be continuing to contribute here on SA? I wish you well and will subscribe to get your post at TS.com. I'm reading your comments to mean you are not giving TS exclusivity either? Reassure me here John.
    16 Aug 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    I've spent far too long building a follower base on SA to change anything. There's nothing to worry about on that front.
    16 Aug 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • rgholbrook
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    (Loud applause) Nice!
    from Comscore: "TheStreet ranks #2 in Average Minutes Per Visit from January 2011 to August 2011." Your loyal following from the congregation of St. Elon alone should up that number. Well deserved.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on the opportunity John!
    16 Aug 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1903) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations

     

    You deserve all the success you achieve
    16 Aug 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (997) | Send Message
     
    Good luck John...looking forward to it!
    16 Aug 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    thanks! Now it's time to smoke this seller @ 0.30 out!
    16 Aug 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    nl--was that you at 14:35:59? That trade took out ARCA at 30 cents.

     

    Another VFIN 100k bid, this time at 30 cents. If it gets hit, we'll almost certainly do more than 1 mil shares of volume today.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    BOOOOOUYA!

     

    Outstanding.

     

    I need to get on Cramer and say my diversified portfolio has in it Wells Fargo, Linn Energy, AT&T, Goldfields, and AXION POWER!
    16 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday, the US Senate discussed whether or not to hand another $120M of stimulus funding to AONE:

     

    http://bit.ly/R4Zixx
    16 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    That $120 million is the unused balance of their $250 million ARRA Grant. If the money is pulled, the conversion price of the Wanxiang debt drops right through the floor.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Maya, of course! What is our government most famous for? Could it be throwing good money after bad? But AONE needs to make those payments and there's no better way than to use taxpayers money to benefit the new owners.

     

    Jeez! I feel like I'm confusing troubled government-supported companies - there's so many from which to choose.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Just think what one-fifteenth of those Asian bound US tax dollars would do if that $ instead went to New Castle.

     

    I was sizzling as I was reading that article.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Malinvestment with a dark, geopolitical taint...

     

    Desperation to retain jobs without regard to the cost or the longer term consequences will see it done, I believe. The Chinese have an exquisite sense of timing.
    16 Aug 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    I've heard more than one person suggest that there might have been some political motivation in the A123 – Wanxaing deal.
    16 Aug 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    John,
    If I'm not mistaken, isn't it true that if the money is pulled is one of the qualifications that WGC can use to pull out of the A123 deal?
    Oh, and congrats on the TheStreet.com deal. Remember us little guys when you become famous...OK. :-)
    16 Aug 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    The documents provide that the $75 million in bridge warrants are exercisable at $0.425, but the exercise price will be chopped to $0.17 if the grants and tax credits are lost.

     

    Similarly, the conversion price of the $200 million of senior secured notes and the exercise price of the related warrants will be $0.60 per share if the grants and tax credits remain in place, but they'll both be chopped to $0.24 if the grants and tax credits are lost.

     

    Wanxaing wants those credits and subsidies - badly!

     

    I figure I'm just going to be making some new friends who prefer the Readers Digest version of Petersen. I don't plan to change what I do on Altenergystocks and SA.
    16 Aug 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (841) | Send Message
     
    Bully for you and good for me too as I am a subscriber!

     

    But the most important item to keep in focus is that the AXPW name will receive more exposure.

     

    John since you have such a depth of expertise you should really consider creating your own ETF!

     

    I for one have great faith in your expertise and integrity.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    stride me down, the ask went to .305
    16 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    As usual, an exercise in Monk-like patience and frustration.

     

    After BMW thrashing the heck out of the PBc for 3 years, "maybe" fleet testing in 6 months ?

     

    Presumably, the Asian advanced testing program will follow the same protocol's and timelines as BMW ? Three years of thrashing, followed by maybe 18 months of fleet testing.

     

    NS second order not happened or even delivered the first one yet, now where is that paint so I can watch it !

     

    So another 18 months of .30c stock..Oh Joy !
    16 Aug 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    You really need to listen to the call again Johnny. I know all about your claim to be a member of the 10 year club, but I also know you ignored my PM asking who you were. That's enough to leave me wondering.

     

    BMW successfully completed their testing. They liked the results enough to hire a third party to confirm those results. The third party confirmation could take up to 6 months, but it could also be a good deal shorter. Fleet testing, when it's done, is a relatively short process.

     

    The Asian manufacturer is piggy-backing the BMW data and going directly to advanced testing. With a little luck we could see fleet teasing in Europe and vehicle testing in Asia announced in Q1.

     

    Making the time frames sound worse than they are seems unusual for somebody who claims to have a longer history with Axion than I do.
    16 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3633) | Send Message
     
    Rambo, imho this is a good chance to double down for pennies on the 2013/2014 dollar. I'd think in 18 months you'll be VERY happy with purchases in the 30 cent range. I'm not sure why after 10 years you'd lose hope as we seem to entering the red zone but I'd try to hang in there until Summer of 2013.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka,
    I think Johnny point is that he purchased all of his stock pre-2009 and has a price/share cost in the $1-2 range, not the $0.30/share range. So he needs a 5 bagger just to get back to even.
    16 Aug 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    V........
    veee....
    veeeeee....
    veeeeeeeee...
    veeeeeeeeeeee.....
    16 Aug 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    We just may go seven figures today. Over 900k so far....
    16 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Through 83 trades 14:43:30, buy:sell 5.45:1, high $0.3095, 849,575 traded.

     

    Johnny, nearing the end of the road is not the right time to go all negative! Well, I know you were probably already there, but ... just sayin'! Maybe your time-frame hard limit will be met.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    i can't understand a seller looking at 5:1 buy and not raising the ask. lol
    16 Aug 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: The question for me is "Is anyone else looking like I do"?

     

    I've only been at this for a few years but I recall nobody else examining the stuff I'm experimenting with in all the reading and research I've done. I feel fortunate that one of the services I chose to pay for, ADVFN, included this data. For a long time I never looked at it.

     

    I think that the sellers had their "program" in place and didn't really look at how fast the trades went off or the volume for the day. I take it, based on education from John, that when these sorts of folks want out, they really don't fight for the best price that often.

     

    I assume it would be different if they were just meeting a profit target and/or just reducing their exposure a bit and had some time to get the job done.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Bless their megafish hearts...
    16 Aug 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (997) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    I believe Johnny's bluff has been called by John...at least one other hanger on will reveal him/herself in due time...

     

    Annoying, but John's insightful reads can bring them out...Rick K very good at picking them off as well...
    16 Aug 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    Rambo, TG mentioned a lot of good news between the lines... the SP will trend up because the news is coming... and its coming big
    16 Aug 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    John

     

    Thanks for updating the timeframes.
    The board commentary seemed to suggest that fleet was maybe in 6 months etc,etc.

     

    I feel the frustration probably moreso than most others on this board, because I have a very short timeframe in which I will have to sell, and of course have no desire to do so. I would assume the majority here , have invested more sensibly than I, and are nowhere near as heavily weighted, or as dependant on this stock as a percentage of overall holdings.

     

    If I thought this could get back to 2 bucks plus in 6 months, I would attempt to move Heaven and Earth to hang on to my holdings, but that just doesn't seem realistic or viable.

     

    I will refrain from unecessary venting in the future, and simply wait and see, because there really isn't anything I can do at this time
    16 Aug 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Johnny: Keep in mind the number of analysts on the call and that Blackrock, who has apparently been doing some selling in the past, was asking some very interesting questions today. See Metro's comment for a list of the analysts.

     

    Anyway, a couple of those decinding to become heavier in AXPW *could* easily move the stock. My belief is that folks like that are seldom *that* concerned about what they pay for it - they look towards what they can get for it later. If their time-frame is long(er) and their belief strong they could suck up all available shares from sellers all by themselves.

     

    And we know from John's tutelage what effect that can have when the weak-hand sellers are gone.

     

    Remain optimistic, take some off the table as it seems appropriate, minimize your losses in that fashion, ...

     

    Of course, I am *not* an advisor, professional or all *that* experienced. So a grain of salt is certainly warranted here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    With the way the volumes have been acting of late I don't know how far or how fast the price might rise. In December 2009 I swore that $1.15 would be the stable base and the price would build from there. If we hadn't seen a procession of stockholder tragedies including bankruptcies, deaths and fired fund managers, the price would have climbed from $1.15 as Axion added NS, then BMW, then GM, then Viridity and then Asia. Every bit of today's $.30 price is attributable to outside factors that have nothing to do with Axion's business.

     

    The last time the price tried to run there were still a few holders with enough stock to crush the advance. As near as I can tell, there are no holders with enough stock to crush the next run. When the price starts to move it will continue until it reaches a point where enough Axionistas decide to take profits to bring supply and demand back into balance.
    16 Aug 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    John (or anyone else), do you know any of

     

    Grammercy Investment Partners
    Fertile Minds Capital
    Avenir Capital

     

    We really have no idea how much these guys (or any one of them) have (if any) or might have bought today or in the last couple of weeks.

     

    If any of them are "fast money trader" types or wannabes, it's possible they could have accumulated enough to be troublesome, or end a run that was just getting started.

     

    Note the word "troublesome" ... not saying they could kill a trend resulting from significant business developments.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    I missed a 5 bagger on a soda company (REED) because the price hadn't moved for 2 years, so I forgot about it even though I love their drinks. It's probably just getting started too as the price rise has only started since Jan. I suspect AXPW will one day launch as well in the same manner - once analysts pick up on growth. In my mind, once BMW moves past fleet testing, we could see 3 bucks by end of next year. I know that's 10x today's price, but such is what hype can do!

     

    I'm probably a bit euphoric after today's CC, but I'm going to add AXPW shares as the year goes on, while I'm still single, childless, and mortgageless. The only thing that'll stop me is another big seller showing up or a capital raise. From REED, I learned to stay with a good product.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    WTB: Out of time, but started googling and got this on the first listing.

     

    http://bit.ly/N76Pqz

     

    Haven't had time to see if there's much more of higher value, but google shows 5,070 results. I put quotes around the whole name, which helped.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Slight positive: there were a couple of fleeting mentions of oilfields, so sounds like they haven't given up there.

     

    No mention of trucks though which as I recall came up some time during the annual meeting festivities (though not in ANY sort of official way)

     

    Would love to be surprised by an announcement related to OIlfields like were were surprised by the PowerCube last November.

     

    I wish one of us had congratulated Tom on the excellent flooded battery sales. It's something he and his team probably are justifiably proud of and perhaps feel under appreciated for.
    16 Aug 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I think we will hear something about commercial vehicles in the not too distant future ...

     

    http://bit.ly/NhFtSW
    16 Aug 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/PgG2wp

     

    October 2-3, 2012
    Donald E. Stephens Convention Center
    Rosemont, Illinois, USA

     

    "Total Vehicle Integration"

     

    With the recovery in the commercial vehicle market it is now more important than ever before to develop innovations in safety, fuel efficiency and engine emissions while integrating customer needs, internal and supplier capabilities and regulation driven systems.

     

    The SAE Commercial Vehicle Engineering Congress (ComVec) is the source for information and resources to aid in the development of these innovations. ComVec brings together a global assembly of both on- and off-road professionals, providing solid, profitable interaction with engineers, supply managers and executives. The event features:
    Forums, presentations, and discussions by commercial vehicle industry leaders and innovators, focusing on global issues relative to technology, business, processes and challenges facing our industry today and tomorrow.
    Cutting-edge technical sessions for engineering professionals to learn, discuss, and benefit from the latest trends, technologies and potential solutions.
    Networking opportunities and special events designed to promote professional interaction and collaboration

     

    (Rosemont is right next to O'Hare Airport in Chicago)
    16 Aug 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    The session that Axion will be presenting in is:

     

    Vehicles and Performance Technical Papers

     

    http://bit.ly/N3AKpo
    16 Aug 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    I noted that TG took the time to mention oil wells, as well as solar and wind (both on and offshore) in his closing remarks. So it seems likely that these doors haven't closed yet and are still on their target screen.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Exon's outlook of energy consumption through 2040.

     

    http://bit.ly/sSkZyO

     

    (Sorry. Cut and paste didn't execute properly, but here are the bulleted points covered in the 40-page PDF)

     

    Welcome to The Outlook for Energy, ExxonMobil’s long-term view of the world’s energy future.
    With this edition, we have expanded the Outlook to the year 2040 for the first time.
    What do we see over the next 30 years? The answer to that question varies by region, reflecting diverse economic and demographic
    trends as well as the evolution of technology and government policies.
    Everywhere, though, we see energy being used more efficiently and
    energy supplies continuing to diversify as new technologies and
    sources emerge. Other key findings of this year’s Outlook include:
    Global energy demand will be about 30 percent higher
    in 2040 compared to 2010, as economic output more
    than doubles and prosperity expands across a world whose
    population will grow to nearly 9 billion people. Energy
    demand growth will slow as economies mature, efficiency
    gains accelerate and population growth moderates.
    In the countries belonging to the Organization for
    Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) –
    including countries in North America and Europe – we see energy use remaining essentially flat, even as these
    countries achieve economic growth and even higher living standards. In contrast, Non OECD energy demand will grow
    by close to 60 percent. China’s surge in energy demand will extend over the next two decades then gradually flatten
    as its economy and population mature. Elsewhere, billions of people will be working to advance their living standards –
    requiring more energy.
    The need for energy to make electricity will remain the single biggest driver of demand. By 2040, electricity generation
    will account for more than 40 percent of global energy consumption.
    Demand for coal will peak and begin a gradual decline, in part because of emerging policies that will seek to curb
    emissions by imposing a cost on higher-carbon fuels. Use of renewable energies and nuclear power will grow significantly.
    Oil, gas and coal continue to be the most widely used fuels, and have the scale needed to meet global demand, making
    up about 80 percent of total energy consumption in 2040.
    Natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal for the number-two position behind oil. Demand for natural gas will rise
    by more than 60 percent through 2040. For both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of global supply will come from
    unconventional sources such as those produced from shale formations.
    Gains in efficiency through energy-saving practices and technologies – such as hybrid vehicles and new, highefficiency
    natural gas power plants – will temper demand growth and curb emissions.
    Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will grow slowly, then level off around 2030. In the United
    States and Europe, where a shift from coal to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas already is under way,
    emissions will decline through 2040.
    16 Aug 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    UPDATE 1-A123 Systems rescued by China's Wanxiang

     

    * Four of nine board seats to go to Wanxiang

     

    * A123 received Obama administration green energy grant

     

    * Day-to-day operations of A123 unchanged for now

     

    http://reut.rs/PgIRxs
    16 Aug 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone catch and recognize the name Tom mentioned as a PbC sale near the end of the call?

     

    If so, what do you know about them?
    16 Aug 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Wasn't it Siltek? Involved in the ?naval? power cube.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    pascquale, Yes. It's a Navy zero energy building demonstrator program. Things like better windows, special paints, solar cells, energy storage (Axion mini-cube). Siltek was the lead contractor.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Wanxiang is one massive company. Here's a PDF about their electric vehicles. Have to admit, it's a pretty slick PDF.

     

    http://bit.ly/On9qg4
    16 Aug 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Maya, By country down the page some. China is building 1 of every 4 cars in the world.

     

    http://bit.ly/QGKa5f
    16 Aug 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: Which makes me think twice about how TG has twice mentioned to me about sending PbC electrodes to China (as an example of what Axion can do).

     

    Besides, as we both indigenously discovered from bills of lading, we used to get battery casings from China.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Maya, If Axion services the Asia Pacific region it will not be from the US. It will most probably be via their partner(s) when they get one. The good thing about the countries in the region is they appreciate price/performance more than us Yanks. And they eat a ton of batteries.

     

    Any time you get any thoughts about there being raw material without limitations, vs what John and others point out, just read the stats on China's use of EVERYTHING. Like locust but we're far worse from a per capita standpoint......for awhile.

     

    Chinese Lead Acid Battery Output Rises On Electric Bike Production

     

    http://bit.ly/MB6Nvt
    16 Aug 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: Repeatedly, I have heard Axion's goal is to make the electrodes in New Castle and then send them anywhere on the planet.

     

    I'm still confused why Axion will not make the activated carbon sheeting and ship them, too, if true.

     

    I really wish I could remember how heavy carbon sheeting is, as well as the electrode. I've held both, and I'm pretty sure the electrode weighs less.

     

    Point is, if the carbon sheeting process is so secret that nobody can see where or how it's made, brings up the question of why it seems that only the electrodes would be made in New Castle.

     

    A further point is that there is so much software and in-house design with the robots and what they each do, as well as "see" what each other are doing, I have a hard time believing that Axion would let that IP out of the country. Three times I have seen the robotic line; have absolutely no clue where the carbon sheeting is fabricated.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    For now, Axion wants to control electrode fabrication in New Castle because maintaining air tight security on the sheeting and electrode assembly processes is an essential part of protecting the IP.

     

    When Axion gets to a point where demand justifies the expansion, it will be quick and easy to take a cookie cutter approach and duplicate an electrode fabrication plant at one or more locations in Europe or "IP secure Asia" to serve regional demand.

     

    Frankly I wouldn't be at all surprised to see future electrode fabs structured as JVs where a battery manufacturing partner carries the bulk of the capital cost and takes the lead on generic manufacturing operations while Axion comes in as the technology partner and puts its own people in place to perform the IP sensitive operations.

     

    In the olden days all electrode fabrication was done in a basement lab at the main plant that was only accessible by a single staircase.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    TG was pretty clear that they have expansion room at New Castle for up to 11 electrode lines. Right now they have 1 fully automated one. I think the plan is to control electrode production from New Castle until they need expansion beyond those 11 electrode lines. When that day comes, I think the need to let the carbon sheeting process be JV'd elsewhere will be a happy problem for all.
    17 Aug 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    An 11 line facility would make enough electrodes for a million batteries a year. In one sense that's a huge whack of business for a company like Axion. When you put the number into the context of a 35 million vehicle per year micro-hybrid market by 2015, there's a lot of room for growth if the PbC takes hold in a big way.
    17 Aug 2012, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Apologies if this has already been addressed-- During the call TG said that the product to be presented at the home show on Sept. 6th has "already received 2 awards". Can someone elaborate?

     

    Thanks.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Rastros: IIRC, "nominated" for two awards. Nothing more was said about it though.

     

    HardToLove.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Hello Rastros! It was Joe Pic that wrapped up his talk about the awards. If we don't find out sooner, surely I will learn about them in Indy in a couple of weeks.

     

    I just left an e-message with Mario Battero to have Joe give me a call, so maybe I can get that info sooner.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    My recollection was "nominated for two awards that will be announced at the show."

     

    Has anybody looked at the show schedule for what that might be about?
    16 Aug 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    I think he said the HUB had been nominated for two awards, I'm not sure that a win is assured.
    16 Aug 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    See if you can get Pic to confirm the fact that they put off the CC for a day because of him traveling. Seemed pretty obvious from the fact that he had to call into the CC and then had to leave before it was over for a meeting. Oh, and see if you can find out who was so important to meet with!! :-)
    17 Aug 2012, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Lab: I'm not so sure Pic would reveal either. Yes, it remains a mystery of why Axion released on the 14th, only to wait until the 16th for the CC.

     

    Highly doubt Joe, what he was doing, was the reason.

     

    If I was Joe, I would schedule an early lunchtime appointment at a big sit down, and have them all gathered, sipping cocktails, awaiting Joe getting off the CC.

     

    Exitement.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    It's hard to say for sure Maya, but I'll bet your visit to Indy will be a great opportunity for active listening. Events like that and ELBC always provide more detail than one could ever hope to pick up in a formal setting like a conference call.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:48 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Oh, I'm sure he won't...at least not who he was meeting with. But you can gleam a lot from tone sometimes as to maybe how excited he was about the meetings.
    17 Aug 2012, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Hey Maya--& HTL
    Thank you---both.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    The NS delay could simply be component suppliers and the yards dealing with August vacation manpower limitations. No one can say they haven't spent a ton of money on 999.

     

    Sales achieved without NS in Q2 were much better than I expected. Obviously much more is happening behind the curtains versus under the floodlights.

     

    We can stamp our feet and jump up and down all we want - whales move when they want to. Given the slow, but steady pace of progress, the outcome of the search for a strategic partner is the biggest potential stock mover for the rest of 2012 IMHO. I wonder if they are using a third party for the search and, if so, who it is?
    16 Aug 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    BW: I hope not! Those folks charge money or shares or ...

     

    I would think with Vani's contacts, knowledge in the industry of what Axion is doing and so many altenergy plays being out of favor now there should be lots of potential capital investors looking for a good investment. And I wouldn't even discount a potential major customer, although that seems a long-shot.

     

    Personally, I'm partial, for what must be obvious sentimental reasons, to East Penn. If they have the interest and wherewithal, there seems to be an already well-established mutually beneficial relationship.

     

    Speaking of which, I wonder if someday we'll find out, as others have suggested, that they off-loaded some of their traditional LAB work to Axion to both help Axion and prepare their own facilities for making PbC batteries down the road.

     

    Anyway, I know I've wasted a lot of your bytes, but I just had to express the hope that a third party wouldn't be needed.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    The value in a third party is in protecting negotiating position. Better to tell a third party "hell no" than directly on either side of negotiations.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Off topic but some may be interested. German coal fired peaker plant. Darn those Germans are innovative! :)

     

    RWE fires up new 2.2 GW coal-burning power plant in Germany; 43% efficient and flexible to respond to renewables intermittency

     

    http://bit.ly/OnEUmn
    16 Aug 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Clever...

     

    So, the answer to wind and solar farms destabilizing the grid is to add quick acting coal plants!

     

    LOL.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Plus dolphins and WWII bombs are adding to the cost of installing windmills. Hey, What about us turtles!

     

    http://bit.ly/MBm6o0
    16 Aug 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Hey Folks

     

    Just stopped in to see whats up. Did anyone see that article on AOL about a week ago talking about 2017 and start/stop cars? They mentioned in that article that BMW has it already in some of their cars on the road but were unhappy with the results. Wish i had posted it then with the link.

     

    So i am assuming it is another companies product and good news for you guys. I hope it works out.

     

    Good Luck,
    16 Aug 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Total volume since July 10 - 10,833,688

     

    If subtract out Q sales of 720,000 (sold 130,000 previous to July 10) then total sales are about 4,696,844.

     

    IMHO we have to be close to where the big sellers are about finished, especially in light of Blackrock's appearance on the CC today. I think I will join the feeding frenzy tomorrow. Be forewarned that when I buy, price inevitably goes down.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    metro, Buy your shares and then sell a few. Give em the ole head fake!

     

    The volume would suggest we have more than the old big three pushing us around.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Metro: hope you snag some at a good price tomorrow. As to the price drop, that what you need if you are to successfully bottom-feed!

     

    ;-))

     

    Also, only sellers need worry about price going down - until you sell there's no loss taken. Again ... ;-))

     

    I want to see price drop a bit briefly somewhere down the road so my wife's profits from the TSLA puts can be redirected into AXPW with maximum effect.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2072) | Send Message
     
    The person calling from BlackRock was Howard Berkowitz, right? I just looked him up and he is the CEO of the firm.

     

    Either he likes to do things himself, or AXPW is right on their radar now. Though, BR employs many people...

     

    I sensed something by his jovial attitude - not something a highly stressed regular analyst would have. That and the name Berkowitz.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    He was the most fun to listen to because TG couldn't deflect as easily and he was better at pulling out information Tom really didn't want to talk about. The fact that they had anybody on the call is telling. If they had their CEO on the call it's even more telling.
    16 Aug 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Last I checked Larry Fink was still BlackRock's CEO. HB's firm was purchased by BR back in 2003 (part of BR's acquisition spree, I assume) and HB became head of BR's hedge fund biz:

     

    http://bit.ly/S2l8mR

     

    Still, for such a heavyweight to be in the call says a lot about something, although I'm not sure if it's good or bad. I'm guessing good.

     

    Edit: according to page 3 of:

     

    http://bit.ly/NHtkV6

     

    HB was to retire on 3/31/2012. So he either stayed on, or is helping his successors. Either way, didn't at all sound like a guy about to recommend selling AXPW. Who knows, maybe they'll BUY.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    But then again...the FINRA short report showed 208k shares Thursday. Who's got that kind of paper cert. selling power? Or is that report even harder to understand than we think?
    17 Aug 2012, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    How big a fund did you say BlackRock was? If that was really the CEO, then "telling" sounds like one heck of an understatement. Do you think BR could be at some kind of major decision point? Was this call determinative? I mean Axion is miniscule to them, no? What skipper of an aircraft carrier signs himself up for after steering watch? Man, I gotta listen again...
    17 Aug 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow, I'm going to try to get the BlackRock transcript onto this blog.

     

    It's important.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3633) | Send Message
     
    I have to listen to the CC again. But Howard Berkowitz is a hedge fund legend and goes back to the days of Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz. You may recognize Mr. Steinhardt's name as well. These guys could buy Axion with their lunch money.

     

    http://bit.ly/ODlNdD

     

    http://bit.ly/ODlNdJ
    17 Aug 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    The FINRA short report includes more than just paper certificate transactions so it's not terribly helpful on a day-to-day basis. Where it's very helpful is analyzing trends and what has happened over time. The correlation is far from perfect, but it's well over 80% when you look at periods of months, quarters and years.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock just filed a new Form 13-HR that reported a total value for its stock portfolio (NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq only) of $60.9 billion. – http://1.usa.gov/NKHbMn

     

    I was surprised that they had anybody on the call. Having Mr. Berkowitz on the call was impressive. Something tells me we may have been reading Blackrock wrong based on too few data points. After all, the only things we *know for sure* are that they (1) owned 7.15 million shares at the end of 2010; (2) owned 6.1 million shares at the end of 2011; and (3) owned 5.2 million shares at April 30, 2012 when they fell below 5% ownership.

     

    There's no question that they did some selling during 2011 and some more selling during the first quarter of 2012. While I wasn't comfortable with the assumption that they were selling out everything, it wasn't a bad *worst case assumption* and it was certainly easier than getting into a long debate speculating about what they're doing.

     

    After yesterday, I think the worst case assumption is unduly pessimistic.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock's selling could optimistically be interpreted as:
    - selling at end of year for a tax loss
    - selling early this year when the stock popped to take some money off the table in anticipation of lower prices

     

    In any case, the questions from Blackrock sounded positive, and more like someone trying to gauge *when* to add. I think they may have come away feeling it is a little early to add still, but the questions had a positive outlook.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (195) | Send Message
     
    My theory is some part of BR is selling, and a more important part is considering buying. BR is such a huge beast, I do not think it played the swing trick on such a micro cap stock.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that Berkowitz asked TG the same question yesterday that I asked Joe P at the shareholder's conference. What is the size of the home power cube market? I didn't get an answer either. HB clearly didn't like the response.

     

    I think it will sell, it just would be nice to have some idea of what revenue it is hoped to bring
    17 Aug 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1927) | Send Message
     
    I thought HB expected the response. Did you hear them laughing when TG said, "No, you keep trying to get that." (along those lines)

     

    These guys go way back. They're old chums. :-)
    17 Aug 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like the veteran Axionistas haven't heard this guy on a CC before. Is that true? If so, that's significant.

     

    TG has certainly talked with that guy before, based on TG's comment about Berkowitz always trying to get more confidential info out of TG.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    Never.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    MrI: "Or is that report even harder to understand than we think".

     

    Yes. Anytime the shares sold are not in the portfolio of the seller, even if the shares are known to exist (e.g. in the owning broker's customer account), the sell must be flagged as short. I assume that this is part of what's needed by DTCC, or one of its subsidiaries, to "net out" positions, as well as allow for investigation of violations such as naked shorting.

     

    We (I?) have been speculating that the Mega-C shares were at a broker that couldn't get them into MM control before the sale. This would be a possible source of shorts not related to certificates.

     

    Also, normal market-maker action in providing "lures" in small volumes can be a short sale.

     

    Complicating it further, if the market-maker sees an attractive price, he can cover short positions, sometimes on the same day, and make some profit right there. Then as the shares that were involved in prior sell orders from MM clients flow in they can be sold for additional profit.

     

    So "Muddy Waters" is the apt description of FINRA-reported daily short sales, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I accidentally posted a note about downloading the CC recording in the prior concentrator.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Hi HT, do you have the final buy/ sell ratio for Thur?
    17 Aug 2012, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    FPA: to build my stuff I have to focus on another platform since my other "power" system is temporarily out of commission. So I didn't see you message, but it got posted below at about 8:06.

     

    I'm sorry I didn't see your message sooner - data collection and then building the stuff takes a lot of time since it's manual for now.

     

    BTW, thanks for asking - confirmation of some value is always appreciated!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    I found it HT... and thanks for all of that work you put in day in and day out.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Indelco> Could you expound a bit on fleet sizes, duration and the protocols for typical fleet tests in auto oems? Are consumers part of fleet testing, or is it all say taxicab companies? I would also be interested in your gut feel for when BMW might be ready to make a decision to incorporate the PbC into an actual model year. Your speculation is a hell of a lot better than mine and way better than none.

     

    There is little doubt in my mind that if BMW goes to a battery company and says we would like you to talk to Axion about producing PbC batteries in your facility using Axion's electrodes that the battery company is going to try to meet BMW's desires.
    16 Aug 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Bang, Unfortunately there is no black and white answer here when it comes to the size of a fleet test or the duration.

     

    The primary function or the fleet test is risk mitigation. Since each component/system has it's own risks the various engineering teams looking to launch new technology on a vehicle have to look at as many risk factors as they can imagine in an effort to determine the correct type of testing to get statistically relevant sample sizes and appropriate durations of testing completed to manage the level of risk that is inherently different in each program.

     

    Risk factors consist of many things like prior history, expert input, eventual market(s) factors, unit sales magnitude, FMEA inputs etc. These will drive the wished for fleet size and the types of locations to place fleets if it's determined they need to test more than one environment.

     

    Then this all needs to be tempered by things like corporate resources, costs, needs of all the groups launching new technology, available fleet participants etc.

     

    I'm sorry this it long winded but the factors driving the decision making process that the various corporate groups would utilize is very extensive but well understood by mature companies.

     

    If I were to take a step back and guess as an innocent/ignorant outside looking into the risk factors of launching a well tested but new energy storage system ignoring all other systems/restrictions, I'd want to see testing that was in the low hundreds of units. I'd want to see at a minimum a fleet in both a cold and a hot weather extreme location and I'd target high frequency users that have their units in service around the clock. Hard to guess beyond this as I am data starved but this would be expanded or contracted based on just too many factors we don't have. Duration would depend on past experience with similar technology and all the testing they have done already.

     

    BUT, and this is a very important point. All of the timing and testing would have the over riding needs of the almighty program timing hanging over it. It's the one objective that does not want to bend. Everything is adjusted based on the golden time line required to launch the vehicle on time and on budget.

     

    If I were to venture a guess on highest probability timing for Axion PBC getting on a vehicle, again I'm putting on my innocent/ignorant glasses and more appropriate TFH, I'd guess BMW is targeting 2015 MY or 2014 CY for a launch program. This might be pulled ahead if they have a low volume program but not by more than approximately 1/2 CY.

     

    Big CAUTION statement for the investor vs the cash flow guys. The news that will drive the stock price will be felt long before the first PBC battery hits the parking space of customer #1. Very important to factor this thought into your investment timing.

     

    Bang, I hope this helps. If you have more questions as a result of this limited post ask away. It's not a complex question it just requires a long winded answer which is impossible to answer well in concise fashion.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Iindelco. Very insightful answer much appreciated. How are participants in a fleet test obtained? Do they modify existing autos, give them test autos or what? If they give them new test autos it sounds like fleet testing is pretty expensive.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Bang, In the selection process the company will obviously first determine what they are looking for as a test regiment/environment. Then they will look at available organizations in the types of environments targeted. Opportunities for different needs differ by company and country. As an example many auto companies in the world have state ownership so this might offer them advantage in getting into socially sponsored police fleets. Or they might purchase entry into private taxi fleets as another example. In the case of safety related devices they might hire professionals to drive vehicles under certain controlled conditions. Remember, in totality, it's risk management. Get the data that reduces the risk to an acceptable level at the cheapest overall cost on time.

     

    The platform they choose for testing is a balance of best results delivered vs cost. This could be anything from minor modifications to existing vehicles to special full blown representative new prototype vehicles or in many cases a mixture. Best bang for the buck that respects the timeline to launch always.

     

    Generally it is quite expensive. Especially because of the cost of the support staff and data gathering. But cost must be put in perspective. I've worked on programs that resulted in hundreds of life cycle units and I've worked on programs that sold 1.5 million units/year. These obviously have differing risk profiles.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again Iindelco. I have a great appreciation for the need for such extensive risk management. Once a production line is running it has to be with full confidence. I have run a small manufacturing company that went through the loss of business and expense of a national recall with a major customer and it is very painful.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I've obviously followed this form for some time and realize we share some genes. I've also seen some pretty ugly stories and while I can't say I've experienced your pain exactly, I've come as close as you can to living it without shedding the blood. In a few instances I came so close I got powder burns. It's not fun but controlled risk is what business is all about. I've had to rely on my last line of defense a few times.

     

    Alas the sweetest fruit is often at the top of the tree on a branch not intended for man or beast! Sometimes the best slip but I give them far more respect than the ones sitting on the ground that never reach when it's their job to do so.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    So was I the only one who kind of got the idea that the $150,000 DOE award is a Mulligan on the DOE's part? Think about it. The award is for 9 months and can be then funded in steps after that. Axion was the only company in their category to get an award. It's for the design of a two battery hybrid system, which TG said isn't different than what they are currently working on with the OEMs, and the second phase requires an auto OEM partner. If that partner just happens to be GM, it's basically a way for the DOE to admit they should have funded Axion the first time, but didn't because they had Li-ion batteries covering both eyes. IMHO
    17 Aug 2012, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Lab Tech
    "So was I the only one who kind of got the idea that the $150,000 DOE award is a Mulligan on the DOE's part?"

     

    That crossed my mind as well, but don't think the DOE has a conscious. I would bet that since it is a different grant, there are different requirements, and possibly even a different panel of people approving/recommending approval.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    True, but they might also be hedging their bets after ignoring lead-carbon the first time. I think of it as less of having a conscious and more of, the sky is falling for Li-ion start-ups we funded, we'd better fund some other stuff to make an audit look better.
    17 Aug 2012, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): 8/16/2012 EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 114, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1203770, AvTrSz: 10559
    Min. Pr: 0.2961, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3008
    # Buys, Shares: 80 792345, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3010
    # Sells, Shares: 34 411425, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3005
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.93:1 ( 65.8% “buys”), DlyShts 207630 (17.2%)

     

    45 seconds after the close there was an AH trade of 27.7K @ $0.30 which is not included on the FINRA data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported volume moves short percentage from 17.73% to 17.2%. If we assume it was a short sale and also add it to the short sales volume, the percentage moves to 19.5%.

     

    I don’t think I need to say a lot – obviously the apparent bullish sentiment that started to appear as a result of the quarterly results seemed to strengthen today. The first 18 trades, through 11:33 (less than half through the conference call) had all “buys” but for two. Buy:sell was 5.91:1, 85.52%, through that period and total volume was 70.45K with a VWAP of $0.2992. The sellers then held sway through 12:10, 15 trades “sells” but for 1. Through the rest of the day, we obtained a VWAP of $0.3012 on 81 trades, 41% “buys”. This is fairly remarkable, IMO, since we could see that the sellers were both heavy in today and not adjusting their prices to adapt to the bullish sentiment.

     

    The last things I want to mention are my assessment that we had reached an inflection point, exiting the consolidation phase, the volume and the 10-day average buy percentage.

     

    My guess is that volume is likely to tail off now, for a while (few days?), and the price should not yet start a meteoric rise. But over a few days we should see some movement begin as the apparently bullish sentiment engendered by my “decent” report and positive comments in the conference call scenario seems to have been realized. With 5 analysts (see Metro’s comments in the APC for a list of them), one of which was apparently a “honcho” for Blackrock, I expect we’ll observe a programmed buy plan take effect after a short time.

     

    I had expected the 10-day buy percentage to flatten out on the 17th, but failed to anticipate how strong the volume and sentiment would be today. It didn’t flatten out today, but actually turned up significantly. If the either sellers are predominately exhausted now or the buying activities begin sooner than I expect, this could continue to rise quite quickly, exceeding my expectations by a wide margin. If this occurs, the 25-day average will also start to rise quite quickly and it will be short order until both are above the 50 and 100-day averages. Watching the average trade sizes, price and short sales percentages in conjunction with “buys” should confirm the existence, or lack, of an inflection point being achieved. Later, I think, volume will start to come in and provide some steadily rising averages. This will eventually bring John’s magical cross into play.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    HT, I think the likes of Blackrock would buy discounted shares through a financial conduit like an offering as opposed to buying them on the open market. Big money has its prerogatives. I would think the Blackrock’s of the world would want to see the share price lower so they can get more for less when it comes to bare knuckles at the negotiating table.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Although if Axion goes the strategic partner route for their upcoming financing(s), then BR would prob be shut out. Their only choice now might be open mkt purchases, similar to their selling.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    In my experience funds will go both ways with equal comfort. Management's made it clear that they doesn't want to go to financiers for the next financing. Instead, they're out looking for strategic investors - business partners who have more to offer than just money.

     

    If a company goes to strategic partners too early, they risk giving up too much control over their own destiny. If you wait for a proven product before going after strategic money, they're usually quite reasonable because the business terms are more important than the financial terms.

     

    It's time for Axion to graduate.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    John, Don't some financial institutions function similar to third party match makers between corporations. Sometimes taking positions and selling companies to other companies. Or buying companies and shining them for resale? Some actually have staff to research targets and make plays accordingly do they not?

     

    Of coarse they want more than their share of flesh.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    You're thinking of what's politely lumped under the sobriquet "private equity" and impolitely referred to as "vulture capital."

     

    A good example was the forced reorganization of C&D a couple years ago where the private equity took advantage of an intangible asset write-down and squeezed out the public stockholders. Since then C&D has been private, but you can bet it will re-emerge sooner or later when the vulture investors think they've built enough value.

     

    It is not something I aspire to for Axion.

     

    I think the kind of strategic money Axion is looking for will more likely come from another battery manufacturer that wants to do a JV or perhaps one or more automaker-linked VCs. The first example that springs to mind is the money Daimler, Toyota and Panasonic invested in Tesla. They were all stock investments, but they had an underlying business purpose that was more important than the money.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    FPA; I think your right if they have the option. What sticks in my mind is the assertion that the next financing will be tried with interests "strategically aligned". This might lock out some of those that present potential trouble down the road.

     

    However, there's still the "dark pool" route where BR arranges a trade with a large holder that bypasses normal market action.

     

    I like MrI's and John's thought below though.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I have always found this BMW deal interesting ...

     

    http://cnnmon.ie/MbmaJ0
    17 Aug 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Me as well.

     

    Carbon fiber is nothing new but it's always been a very expensive material due to process. Tons of effort to take it more mainstream but even if you look at their target cost/unit mass it will remain expensive. It is a good lesson though in the value of mass reduction in transportation.

     

    BTW, Material was one of the areas of joint development BMW signed with T. It takes a ton of money to advance these efforts and automakers are no longer as shy as they used to be in spreading these costs around via agreements.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Will be fascinating to see what The Negotiator does for Axion.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, Obviously an area far more understood by yourself than I. We've all seen the outcome of unwelcome suitors and I was kind of wondering if there was a faction that was more welcomed by companies wishing to grow. I guess those are the ones you hire to protect your interests I guess. :)
    17 Aug 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    Guys like Berkowitz still get thrilled with a tenbagger... I'm spreading the word in the Netherlands :)
    17 Aug 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    100k traded in 10 minutes...nice :)
    17 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    >200k now.

     

    Dump dump dump.

     

    Chomp chomp chomp.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4084) | Send Message
     
    out for the next 7 hours or so to pick up family from the airport... over/under for new messages between now and then is 100...

     

    and yeah... i bought more AXPW before hitting the road... and i really need to stop... need to start the 12 step plan with Axionistas Anonymous soon...

     

    Step 1: Admit that you can't stop buying more Axion shares
    Step 2 - 12: ???
    17 Aug 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (428) | Send Message
     
    LOL. Many of those 100K in the first 10 minutes were mine. Yes, it's a sickness.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    ABM: No, it's the cure! I say this because with what Maya began with these concentrators and folks like JP, Iindelco, Tim, MrI, ... everyone voluntarily sharing knowledge, ideas, ... we have *more* insight into a penny stock with a great future than anywhere else.

     

    Most penny stocks qualify as big gambles because of a dearth of these things and that is a disease.

     

    So a slogan for this AXPW board might be added to Tim's KIAS, TCFWAI - The Cure for What Ails Investors, which is lack of information.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (997) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    "...TCFWAI - The Cure for What Ails Investors, which is lack of information."

     

    Great point!
    18 Aug 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Here is a white paper from Viridity on the FERC 745 Order. It has probably been posted here before.

     

    http://bit.ly/zeUlBI

     

    Interestingly, at the end, Viridity makes this statement - "Viridity is a full service CSP, and customers enrolling with us in these programs typically have no up-front costs to participate."

     

    I wonder if that is just for demand response implementation or if they would front the cost of the battery system too?
    17 Aug 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Stefan they are a business and not a bank. They are also battery neutral and show many different battery types and configurations they could work with. No way they are financing battery installations IMO.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, My impression is Viridity is not supplying systems but mostly interface hardware/software and expertise.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I agree ... that's probably why they have not installed that many batteries at their demand response locations.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    John, how do you see strategic partnership working out? If Axion is to obtain funding they are going to need to sell equity in Axion correct?. How much equity do you think they would be willing to offer? All the remaining authorized and unencumbered shares? What else do you think they could throw into a deal beyond the equity? Licensing a possibility?
    17 Aug 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    The possibilities are endless. If you look at Tesla, for example, Toyota, Daimler and Panasonic have all bought stock for cash, but the reason they did so was to establish certainty in customer or supplier relationships. I could easily see that kind of relationship between Axion and an automaker-linked VC or one or more battery manufacturers. There might also be facility joint ventures to establish electrode fabs in closer proximity to a partner's battery plants.

     

    When you start talking to strategic investors, the possibilities are endless and the last thing I'd want to do is limit or restrict anybody's thinking. The key is that even if you're selling stock to a strategic investor, it's stock that will never flow back into the market.

     

    While I try to avoid using the word never, it's a pretty apt description of the way I assess the odds of a licensing transaction. I can see any number of joint venture possibilities, but don't see an outright license as being in the cards, except perhaps in China.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Axion has put up a billboard saying it is seeking strategic investors. I wonder if it is getting any traction at this point, or if Axion will need to contact potential partners either directly or via a third party?
    17 Aug 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    My read is that the PbC is getting enough serious traction now that Axion is starting to look like a pretty attractive potential partner. When it was just early stage testing by BMW the big boys could say meh. Now that BMW's testing is done, GM has taken second billing on a DOE grant application, T or H is in advanced testing and NS is a customer, it's pretty hard to pretend the technology is no big deal.

     

    A couple years ago Axion would have had to sacrifice far too much. Today it can be more particular and be treated as a peer if not an equal.
    17 Aug 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW); Through 13:00, thought you folks might have a mild interest :-)

     

    # Trds: 91, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 441854, AvTrSz: 4856
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2975
    # Buys, Shares: 47 374764, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2997
    # Sells, Shares: 12 67090, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2853
    # Unkn, Shares: 32 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 5.59:1, 84.8% "buys".

     

    So far, as suggested, volume is moderating. I expect the sellers will grow impatient late in the day as the majority of today's bottom-feeders may have been satisfied. Then they should drop their asks and/or start hitting some bids, if past behavior holds.

     

    So far, bullish *is* the sentiment with avarice thrown in for good measure.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    And another 133.4K just popped through. We may just see near 3M volume in three days. Pretty sure we're already passed 2.6M, with a few hours of trading left.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Now make that 198.4k traded at 30 cents in 13 minutes. The bad news is that the 30 cent wall is still standing. For now.

     

    Update: 246.8k at 30 cents.
    Update II: 316.8 at 30 cents.
    Update III: 353.6 at 30 cents. I'm thinking the bigger blocks may have been cross trades. My little 15k order knocked one of the MMs off the best ask.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) and the Q becomes are these trades from former fence-sitters or did BR make a snap-decision?

     

    Buy:sell moves to 9.29:1 with those trades assumed as buys (I'm 15 minutes delayed).

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: and another 80K just went through that s/b "buys" as well.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    I like how Axion's Career page on their website has a drop-down box now. Only put one of those in if it's going to be multiple choice.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3166) | Send Message
     
    Yep. See KentG's post below for the 2nd job opening now listed.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    I have a question regarding the automotive OEMs. All the PbC testing to date, I assume, has been with PbC batteries made by Axion. Once the PbC makes it into production, it's been said that Axion will just provide the carbon electrodes to a big battery manufacturer that will produce the batteries. But what about testing on these batteries? Is it possible that an Exide made PbC would perform differently than a JCI Varta PbC which would perform differently from an Axion made PbC? The reason I ask is that I've seen articles where UltraBatteries were tested and the UltraBatteries from Furukawa performed differently than those made by East Penn. Would a BMW want to test the no kidding final battery from the final manufacturer (maybe in fleet testing), or would they just trust that the final production batteries would be the same no matter who makes them? Thanks.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    User: IIRC, Furakawa's battery has different chemistry, percentage doping with carbon, ... that they developed for themselves.

     

    I can't see this situation developing with a JV between Axion and a battery manufacturer.

     

    Axion has the chemistry, grid, proprietary manufacturing processes, IP protection, ... to allow a drop in replacement of a single electrode. The potential partners are experienced manufacturers as well so that after a short "shakedown" run, there shouldn't be any major testing required.

     

    MHO, in semi-ignorance,
    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (516) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » APC #140 right this way...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Aug 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    User432382, The reason an East Penn Ultrabattery performs differently than a Furukawa Ultrabattery is because while they started development from the same basic research/patents their manufacturing processes were not launched by a common entity utilizing the same tools.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    User432382, When/if Axion partners they would establish launch plans and utilize known processes validated with lessons learned and test procedures to confirm each step of the replication process. Assigned teams from the various participants would use industry established tools to lay out a timeline with deliverables (milestones) along the way to manage the risk and assure that the metrics defined by the various experts optimize the opportunity for the successful launch of additional increments of capacity.

     

    Worldwide, industry utilizes these tools all the time because they have to add and reduce capacity in different markets all the time. Doesn't assure success and there are always challenges, but it optimizes the chance for flawless launches. At the end there are validation tests that assure that the product from the various manufacturing facilities/locations are as equivalent as necessary to perform the same functions.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    User432382, I just wanted to add one aside. They also do what is called continuous conformance testing. This means that the supplier and sometimes the customer will take samples from the assembly process and test key attributes to make sure the process is stable and nothing has changed. Doesn't catch everything but it reduces the opportunity for failure and obviously the size of any spills.

     

    The frequency of this testing depends on many factors such as process capabilities, risk levels defined in the PFMEA (Process Failure Mode Effects Analysis), supplier changes, the direction and magnitude of the wind! Anyway, Tons of tools to reduce risk cradle to grave on these programs.
    17 Aug 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    OK, thanks. When I look at the Varta website and they talk about their "PowerFrame" technology or the Enersys website talking about their "Thin Plate Pure Lead", etc. I started wondering if the resulting PbC batteries coming for companies such as these with their own unique technology would be noticeably different than PbCs made by Axion and require even more testing (uugh) by BMW. Thanks everyone.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    fwiw 432, I think it was an excellent question and topic to have been examined and then run to ground. Many thanks to all involved...
    17 Aug 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco and user432382,
    I'm not certain that these batteries would all be the same other than the proprietary carbon anode material being relatively identical.
    1) It is not clear/certain whether AXION would ONLY sell complete anodes and that these would each be the same regardless of which battery manufacturer they were sold to. It would sseem that JCI might have a slightly different version than Exide or East Penn so that they could still differentiate their respective batteries and marketing hype.
    2) To set up with a single battery manufacturer, the building of the same (identical) PbC battery would mean the partner would be manufacturing "AXION PbC" batteries in the same fashion that AXION is manufacturing East Penn flooded batteries now. Those batteries don't leave AXION with an AXION label, rather they are labeled per East Penn's specs for East Penn customers.
    3) There are a couple scenarios that are confusing this question, one would be a possible 'partner' making AXION PbC clones for some OEM or railroad, and another would be AXION shipping PbC anodes for incorporation in any AGM manufacturers battery.
    4) I am skeptical that the likes of JCI would let AXION dictate all aspects of the construction of their AGM battery even with AXION holding the axe of sole supplier of PbC electrodes/ anodes. Further the various manufacturers that AXION wants to supply would need to retool to AXIONS specs and that is no longer following the notion that these anodes would be readily manufactured on existing lines.
    5) If the question is regarding just the manufacture of the PbC electrode then IIndelco's guidance is completely applicable and I've wasted your time with my drivel. Apologies if that is the case.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
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    42itus1, Good points.

     

    There would need to be changes made in product and process to accommodate the differences any potential partners would bring to the party. Chances are that the various parties we might identify have many product and process differences. How these are handled would depend on many factors that would result in outcomes from no impact to will not work or needs a full blown validation cycle.

     

    The parties would have to work with the customer(s) to see how these variants would be accommodated to meet customers needs.

     

    Again, good points.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Within parameters, that we haven't a clue about, the PbC can be "tweaked" in the direction of higher/lower capacitance or higher/lower energy density. It could be possible that several manufacturers could sell very different PbC's for specific service.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    42,

     

    Yes, you've hit the nail (being my question) on the head. If Axion wins a big automotive OEM order and becomes a partner with a big battery company, it will just supply the carbon electrodes and JCI/Exide would incorporate that into their batteries. Who knows how their battery would be different (positve electrode materials, "PowerFrame" technology whatever the heck that is, etc.). I would think that after 4 years of triple redundant, super anal retentive testing that BMW has done with Axion made PbCs, that they wouldn't just accept PbCs coming from another company but would want to test those too. If that's the case, I was wondering if these final batteries from whatever manufacturer could/would be used in the fleet testing? But that seems to be coming up soon (6 months) and it doesn't appear Axion has any agreements in place.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3440) | Send Message
     
    I think this only becomes an issue for truly big kahuna orders. I would think that any initial commercial production order from BMW would be in the small-medium range, maybe for up to a few tens of thousands of vehicles for that first model / first year... which I would think Axion would be able to handle in-house (though might require further electrode lines) ... Once that proves out and thus BMW is then looking to order the whole sandwich for subsequent models/years, then obviously the big-brother partner (and associated product issues) would come into play, but in my mind, only then... and if all that comes to pass, I doubt any of us will be troubled at all then about the need for a bit more testing...
    17 Aug 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    DRich, True, But each tweak, as you suggest, needs a risk assessment and appropriate actions. We don't know enough to understand how extensive this is.

     

    Could be NS is already different than BMW which is your point.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Good points, all.

     

    However, this kind of "next level" testing may already being going on.

     

    If the $475 from Norfolk hasn't yet hit the books, and that only a couple of dozen batteries were sent off to the Navy, then who has bought the rest of the $660K of PbCs Axion has put on the books so far this year?

     

    Certainly if Axion let the world know about the relatively small potatoes Navy project, then why hasn't the PR Department talked up far over a half million in PbC sales?

     

    Where did these PbCs go? Especially curious because no auto fleet testing has yet begun.

     

    Great TGIF speculation fun, after a pretty solid and enticing Q report, paired with a real good week of volume occurring, my thinking is, as I pointed out, and JP reiterated, that Axion still retains an agreement with Exide, and that two large battery outfits, or potential strategic partners, also just happen to be about a five hour drive from New Castle -- a semi can hold one heck of a lot of electrodes.

     

    Also, from the blue-filtered regions of my 'noggin (many months ago), I recall that Exide was building a new plant somewhere around Youngstown, Ohio, probably only a 45 minute drive from New Castle.

     

    My hopium conclusion is that Axion already knows who is going to be the big brother, and it's not JCI.

     

    Though I trust Exide's leadership a tad less than does bangwhiz, there are some breadcrumb tidbits that lead me toward Exide as the big brother partner.

     

    Most certainly, since Exide likely knows its AGM battery is unable to get past maybe 8 months in a stop/start vehicle, and that 50% of their sales were aftermarket, and that the PbC can last 8.5 years, it would behoove Exide to be Axion's strategic partner.

     

    But there there's Toyota...
    17 Aug 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... It has always been one of my sneaking suspicions that one of the things that took BMW so long (?) to test Axion's product was a tweaking process to find the right performance characteristics. NS most likely wants as much DCA as possible and I'm sure Axion knows that parameter well. BMW is running a very different system with a large number of devices.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    User432382, Your points concerning timing and actions are very good for discussion. One other thing I've seen many times is a customer will accept a validated product from one location even though the price is higher and the logistics are not as clean in an effort to support the beginning of a relationship with a plan to transition over an agreed to period of time.

     

    Just many ways this could go but to tell you the truth I don't see it going this way with BMW. They would far more likely prefer a strong tier I supplier to take the reigns on this if they wish to put it in production.

     

    Anyway, just want to point out that there are many ways this can go but we don't have enough info. to go very deep. Don't know how much variations in the other materials besides the carbon anode impact the battery and we don't know how much process variables come into play either.

     

    All that being said, if they are going to support 2014 CY automotive they need a partner sooner rather than later. Timing can be compressed but it drives cost.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    BlackRock has been buying Exide by the way:

     

    http://bit.ly/N9LSLG
    17 Aug 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Your points are perfectly valid. And as I posted in an earlier message this is a large part of the value of where Axion has progressed to today. It's not just a PBC battery. It's all the testing and knowledge that's tweaked it to where it is in support of customer specific system needs.

     

    This needs to be managed with any moves required to scale it in volume or to other sources.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    To me, it's important for new investors reading the APC's to know that the battery management system will be different for various applications, however, the PbC will be built the same, for all applications.

     

    As Thomas pointed out, Axion only makes two or three products. I have it at four. Race car specialized batteries, flooded for East Penn, the PbC, and the 30HT.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10254) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I'd caution on thinking there will be only one PBC design in each of the respective form factors. As DRich has pointed out customers might prefer to have the power/energy ratios optimized for their respective applications. I think Axion can do some pretty unique things by adjusting carbon/lead ratios in the PBC that really broaden it's acceptance to different customers.

     

    We see this happening all the time in LABs. JCI even makes LABs different for southern vs northern climates.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: You may be correct, and thanks for the cautioning, and knowingly I am fighting an uphill battle with you two, who know far more about batterries than I, but TG did insinuate that the PbC is ready to go as is for many applications.

     

    But I do not discount that tinkering could be done for various customers. However, to my knowledge, I haven't ever heard anyone from Axion state such.

     

    The tinkering would be in the BMS, racking systems, maybe different invertors, etc.

     

    Sure have learned a heck of a lot hanging around with you guys.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2962) | Send Message
     
    Maya wrote: Where did these PbCs go? Especially curious because no auto fleet testing has yet begun.

     

    We know fleet testing has not been announced. We do not know if testing has begun. There might be a thousand vehicles wandering around Korea. Or not.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    Differentiation can be important when you're trying to sell something to a new customer. If a customer like BMW has spent a long period of time testing a particular device, the question it will be asking the supplier is "If Axion provides the electrodes, can you make the same battery with the same technical and performance specifications?" It's not a question of Axion dictating specifications. It will be the customer doing the dictating.

     

    Where you're likely to see differences is in batteries that are optimized for different applications. Automotive will be different from solar which will be different from railroad which will be different from the home power HUB.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2862) | Send Message
     
    Maya
    Nice catch.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Implied. PbCs have been sold....to someone, somewhere. For what purpose?

     

    Glad you're checking in. I want to learn more about how the PbC's innards make up can be tweaked from application this to application that.
    18 Aug 2012, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    My best guess is that limited numbers of PbCs have been sold to several dozen companies in a variety of industries that have signed NDAs and are trying to figure out whether the PbC will work well in their particular application. I'm sure that some who've tried the PbC ultimately decided that something else fit their ticket better. We only get to hear about testing when it gets to a point where the promise is significant enough that both parties to the NDA agree that a particular application can and should be discussed publicly.
    18 Aug 2012, 03:59 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (997) | Send Message
     
    Maya...

     

    Good catch...at the EOD, this could make a good business school case study and/or a great novel...wait...Maya...... a writer...correct?...;-)
    18 Aug 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (997) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    This is where I find some solace in all the patent filings...you just know some are not just "test driving".

     

    Signed, Mr. Cynic
    18 Aug 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    DRich: if I interpret what your saying correctly, you suggest that Axion may be tweaking the energy vs. power aspects (IIRC, by varying the volumetric percentages of lead vs carbon?) to suit the different requirements? I do recall statements that they could tune power vs. energy to some degree.

     

    If so, makes sense.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... From personal experience, building a PbC from scratch is a first class pain in rear and not as easy as the material list might imply. Reverse engineering for markets that don't exist presently would be a waste of time and money. It would be much more economical just to work with Axion. I hold for example of this the performance touted by JCI & Exide with their carbon paste & carbon-whatever they are attempting. Some but not great progress there. Then there is graphene ... well, that may be the miracle battery material in 20 years.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4363) | Send Message
     
    "Where did these PbCs go? Especially curious because no auto fleet testing has yet begun."

     

    But, he did say, or intimate, an Asian auto OEM was testing PbCs, and I'm pretty sure he said they had concluded from review of prior Axion testing that more was same was not needed, choosing to go directly to testing in vehicles. Later in the conference call TG declined to characterize that testing as "fleet" testing, just in-vehicle testing.

     

    And, ISTM that references to numerous inquiries re-PowerCube applications ranging in size from 50lWh to 4 MWh plus multiple dozens of NDAs are suggestive of PbC sales for testing in alternative energy-industrial demand response are candidates for buyers of PbCs in Q2.
    18 Aug 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    Tom said that based on the BMW results the Asian automaker went directly into "advanced testing." It was not clear to me that vehicle testing had begun.

     

    Battery testing, as we've seen with BMW, is a very time consuming process and can take two to three years for a new product from a new supplier. Once a supplier has gone through the entire process with one of the automakers, the others can use abbreviated test protocols that take far less time, generally six months or so. They'll never say "If it's good enough for them it's good enough for us," but they will piggy-back the work that's already been done to avoid reinventing the wheel.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3633) | Send Message
     
    John, how long have we been in the "advanced" stage with BMW? Do you expect Axion to take years (or months) to get their Asian partner into fleet tests as well? Also does fleets tests mean 10s or should we think 100s and/or 1000s of vehicles tested before decisions are made.
    19 Aug 2012, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30635) | Send Message
     
    The normal automaker testing procedure for a commodity battery from a new manufacturer is two years – including fleet testing.

     

    Since the PbC is a very unique battery and Axion started out as a complete unknown, it took BMW three years to advance to a point where it was ready to begin fleet testing. Assuming everybody did their work properly to begin with, the third-party confirmation tests that are currently being conducted should be a *mere formality,* as if anything in Axion's business history could be classified as a mere formality.

     

    I'd expect a test fleet to number in the low hundreds and be planned for something on the order of a million miles, which would normally take six to nine months. By the time a battery gets to fleet testing, it's already gone through all the technical torture sadistic engineers can throw at it and the primary goal of fleet testing is to make sure that the entire vehicle performs as expected.

     

    Once a product like the PbC has worked its way through the testing and validation process with one first tier automaker, the process is both smoother and faster with subsequent customers. While nobody's willing to simply take a competitor's work at face value and go directly to fleet testing, nobody's eager to spend the huge sums that BMW's invested over the last three years if they don't have to.

     

    I'd normally expect an "advanced testing program" that builds on somebody else's work to take six to nine months. I'd also expect a follow-on tester to rely on the original independent third-party review instead of commissioning a new study.

     

    Given the progress we know about, it's not unreasonable to hope for BMW fleet testing as a Q1-13 event followed by Asian fleet testing in Q2 or Q3.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (997) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    I yield to your expertise and experience..."Reverse engineering for markets that don't exist presently would be a waste of time and money. "...point taken.
    My brother in law is a retired engineer...GTE...General Dynamics...the anecdotes he shares with me about bigger companies taking advantage (stealing) of small company products and technology give me pause and cynicism.
    19 Aug 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >magounsq ... Stealing technology & product is a 2 way street for big any small companies. It is usually where big, easy, quick money is to be made the danger lays. This is not to say that Axion will not face this risk but the market to sell into has to show need to consume it. Worst case I can see is that Axion will have at least a 5 year run before anyone cares enough and 7-10 before a real threat emerges ... that said, I've seen companies misstep or willingly assist in giving their technology away. I guess risk of failure is everywhere in business ... except if your a large bank.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    put on criminal hat: why steal something that no one is buying (yet)? steal things of value today. you can sell them and pay the lawyers to cover your theft.
    20 Aug 2012, 10:00 AM