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  • Axion Power Concentrator 140: Aug. 17, 2012: Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012 303 comments
    Aug 17, 2012 2:22 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    These instablogs and the people who maintain them have no relationship whatsoever to Axion Power International. To our direct knowledge no person with a current relationship to Axion Power International other than being a shareholder participates in these instablogs.

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    Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices:

    (updated through close Aug. 10th)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Moving Average Volume:

    (updated through close Aug. 10th)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites created by APC commentator Bangwhiz it is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one; including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website, the first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Chart Tracking, HTL tracks AXPW's intra-day charting.

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    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (303)
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  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    V,J
    17 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    ,.-*`
    17 Aug 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Well played, both of you.
    18 Aug 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    I'll tell you one thing. The entities accumulating are far more precise in their actions than our prior sellers were when it comes to optimizing the yield on their motivations. Just my perception/thoughts.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Looks to me like it is an "all you can eat for .30 a share" price special today. I don't care who is selling, but I wonder who is buying?
    17 Aug 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I would actually more like to know who is selling and the story behind the selling. To me it seems silly to sell when things are looking very bright, but whomever it is may have an interesting story as to why. Seems like the quantity that has gone off in the last month or so is far above the BK shares, and Quercus is getting low if not out. Seems like we must be getting near the end of those willing to sell at this price.
    17 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Me, in a small way--5000 more today at $0.30, Bang. I couldn't resist with all the speculation about "HB" and "stockpiling". Thanks for the yeoman's work.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    I'm beginning to think the whole renewable sector is on the verge of bottoming. With Wanxiang buying AONE, and South Korea showing interest in German solar manufacturer Q-Cells SE (QCE), it appears speculation is on the rise.

     

    Perhaps another indicator that the bottom is in will be the takeover or merging of the Chinese solar industry, of which companies' balance sheets are a total wreck and are in dire need of cash infusions. Solar is not going away.

     

    Grid smoothing companies arising like Viridity Energy and Growing Energy Labs demostrate that energy storage is on the cusp of exploding.

     

    We all know there's mega-billions going into the smart grid around the world over the next half decade. But, during the past three years, all the hot money has more or less left the building, billions have evaporated, moved elsewhere, and now all of a sudden we're seeing glimpses of smart money that seems to be moving back in.

     

    With Berkowitz himself calling in to a pipsqueak outfit like Axion, means he's sniffing around, maybe because he realizes sector rotation may be on the verge of happening.

     

    I don't see what Wanxiang is doing, and Berkowitz calling in, as mere coincidence.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    I'll add that the WilderHill Global New Energy Global Innovation Index seems to have bottomed late July:

     

    http://bloom.bg/MCFr88
    17 Aug 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Maya, In support of your point.

     

    China in Europe: buying clean-tech

     

    http://bit.ly/NMVUqc

     

    It would not be hard to find similar articles on the US as that's been a theme as well.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13483) | Send Message
     
    China just changed leadership (something they do about once a decade) and the new guys like Cartels. Look for early signs that significant sectors like solar are about to be treated just like their rare earth sector (Cartel firmly in control, large, government-run companies which foreigners can't invest in, pet Exchange installed to help regulate prices and supplies, and the capitalist small fry vanished or regulated out of existance).

     

    Any sector which can be labled "disorderly" will be a target for similar action. Though this process is NOT synonymous with nationalization, its basic fascist concept has the sort of central control and top/down heirarchy which appeals to the Central Committee.
    17 Aug 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Carlos Slim said, So? What wrong with that? ;)
    17 Aug 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    I can not tell a lie. It was I. Happy to get some 30-centers. I also filled in a hedgie friend on the 10Q and CC info. He has been accumulating. Don't know if he bought more or not.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    Awesome, alsobirdman and friend! Do you mind saying how many shares you bought today? You mentioned 100k early in the day. Thanks.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Today was only 65. I may be done now. Or not. I just hope .30 is in the rear-view mirror for good.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    Here's an interesting article. All the Cap and Trade, windmills, solar, electric cars, etc couldn't do as much as some coming EPA regulations and a big drop in the price of natural gas from all the shale gas.

     

    http://bit.ly/S2ouoo
    17 Aug 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: I wonder if the government will learn anything from that article.

     

    Unlikely.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Aug 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    And in the end when you add the trend in China and the situations in Germany and Japan into the equation the big trend is still intact. If CO2 is a threat we will be adjusted. I suspect other factors will come into play before CO2 though.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    HTL, For government entities as a whole it's not about being right or wrong. It's about control. Happens until an unforeseen change happens and then everyone yells "Who stole my cheese".
    17 Aug 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    EPA to approve grain sorghum for cleaner ethanol

     

    http://bit.ly/MCJukU

     

    "Sorghum also has environmental advantages. It is more tolerant of drought than other crops, including corn, and it produces about the same amount of ethanol per bushel as corn while requiring one-third less water."

     

    Don't know how this might ramp up, but if we're not getting rid of ethanol all together, sounds like a step in the right direction.

     

    Also don't know how much it would affect the price of meat and poultry, though arguably reducing the price of corn on a worldwide basis would do more for political stability.
    17 Aug 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Hello, stumbled on a Peterson article bought some during the last couple of days, listened to the CC and bought more in the morning, for my "tomorrow" section that also contains ZOLT.
    Buy and hope is not my principle but in this case it might work, may this be the bottom, good luck to all hopefulls.
    Mike
    17 Aug 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13483) | Send Message
     
    Welcome Mike. Stick around, there are some wise heads here.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Good luck to you. I think your timing was perfect. My timing sukd but that's just how it happened.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    kind of interesting comparing the 2 & 5 year charts of AXPW and ZOLT... see definite separation this past winter when the sellers who need not be named tanked AXPW

     

    2 yr: http://yhoo.it/OpLlrV

     

    5 yr : http://yhoo.it/Ny0Ocn
    18 Aug 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    one plus for ZOLT is that one can sell options around the core position to significantly reduce the entry price.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    JS

     

    Interesting ownership names in ZOLT.
    Following?
    19 Aug 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Looking at ZOLT's ownership http://yhoo.it/QgaByc, one would think Axion would start picking up a few of those institutions at some point. Royce has a lot of microcap funds and I'm surprised they're not tuned in already. DFA, Vanguard and Blackrock might be nice too... oh wait... we already have Blackrock... its a start.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    Per TG, Axion is "stockpiling product." So they expect enough sales soon to do that. Maybe to just fill the NS yard slug order, but maybe more. Maybe much more.

     

    Take the res. product. TG mentioned Rosewater will be taking orders at the early Sept. show for that. I've mentioned that I'd love to see the orders announced, at least if they're impressive. Could help to stimulate more orders, as well as help support the stock price well before the resulting revenues are incurred. And once again, these kinds of orders and sales can help fill the time between rip-your-head-off orders like s/s, and could occur soon, and thus they matter to some investors.

     

    Evidently, like Howard Berkowitz of BlackRock.

     

    So how much money are we talking about? HB didn't get an answer from TG yesterday, as expected (lol), but we can speculate. Here's one guess, as a discussion starting point: The smallest unit uses 24 30HT PbC batteries, plus some electronics, racking, etc. If we use $400/battery, that's approx. $10k for batteries alone plus I don't know how much for everything else. Another $10k? If so, that's $20k total to Axion, the manufacturer of the device.

     

    If Rosewater gets only 10 oders for the smallest model,at the Sept. show, that's $200k worth to Axion. 100 orders means $2 mil. The numbers could get respectable quickly, IMO, and can help feed investor demand for some more PbC orders, NOW. TG also said Rosewater has some contract minimums that kick in almost right away, which combined with their deep experience and contacts in the mkt sets the stage for some decent news there, seems to me.

     

    A lot of speculation there, but reasonably so, I think, and I also sense some folks here may not realize how important the res. product and it's timing can be.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I , Given Axion's immature process I can respect them "stockpiling" material to fill customer needs. It's generally not good business practice but at this stage of the game it is a sound business decision to do so. I would also suggest they are scheduling the builds so the engineering staff can learn from the runs to improve throughput. It's a son of a gun (I learned to use expressions like this from Maya) to tune a line without product.

     

    I wouldn't read too much beyond that from the stockpiling comments. That being said their Q2 sales of PBC appear to support quite a level of unidentified activity not seen before. Things are happening behind the curtains.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    iindelco--a very good Q is why are they stockpiling, and how much? TG didn't explain either. I see a tightwad CEO that doesn't have a lot of cash to spend even if he wanted to, and doesn't spend a dime before he has to, so I'm thinking it's for more than practice.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, What I tried to do, but perhaps not so successfully, was to emphasize the risk of building just in time for customer needs with an immature process. Things can and do go wrong. So you would build well in advance of your customer shipment to keep any issues that might arise internal to your own organization.

     

    The thought of also scheduling the builds to enhance engineering efforts to optimize the process efficiency is a secondary consideration for sure.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (222) | Send Message
     
    Excellent point, obviously borne of a few personal bruises for which I (and others here) are grateful the subsequent lessons have now become second nature for you (=knowledge). Thanks for sharing your experience!
    17 Aug 2012, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    42itus1, We are fortunate in the form to have a significant number of participants with a broad spectrum of backgrounds that like to share their findings and personal talents/experience in support our mission to better adjust our individual risk/reward profiles on this asset. Some have more and some less in the way of battle scars in various endeavors. I just happen to have chosen a path in manufacturing and like a few others on the board, I have tons of scars and desensitized areas to prove it. Like in all occupations there are days you wish would never end and some that don't for the opposite reason.

     

    PS When I joined SA I quickly scanned the profiles shared by many of the participants here. There is a ton of accomplishment in this room. What a gift to gather input from such a gathering.

     

    Hat's off as always to Maya and the APH for putting and holding this together for us.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, got it. Thanks.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Before we get too giddy (too soon,) let us remember we're not the only supplier ... not only does Indy Power Systems (apparently) need to get UL certification, they need to build on time and hopefully to some volume as well.

     

    They don't overwhelm you in a Google search, but I understand that doesn't mean much.

     

    Does anyone here know anything about them and their reputation?

     

    Would certainly be nice to know what caused the Xtreme fire ... there was talk of capacitor? issues in the inverters at one point, but I don't think anything as has been announced for sure (though I think JP posted about a video which seemed to indicate it started in the battery "area." Yet there may be a number of different parts in that area.)

     

    Hopefully everything will go smooth and great, but you just never know what can bite you and slow your roll.

     

    It will interesting to watch how Rosewater will choose to roll this out ... do they sell as many as fast as possible, or do they ramp it slower as they get some feedback and testing.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    The stockpiles could be significant.

     

    If you look at the way the tolling relationship works, the buyer provides a pile of components that go into inventory and Axion books an offsetting account payable for the cost of the components. When batteries are delivered, they're subtracted from inventory, the account payable is credited for the delivered components and Axion gets a net check for the value added. (I think)

     

    While it's a rough approach, if you start with inventory and subtract accounts payable, you can get to a *net Axion-owned inventory* value. For the last four quarters that net number was:

     

    30 - Sep - 11 – $2,101,423
    31 - Dec - 11 – $2,196,815
    31 - Mar - 12 – $1,919,704
    30 - Jun - 12 – $2,105,728

     

    To put those values in perspective, the numbers at December 31, 2010, before there was a tolling contract, were $1,428,560 in inventory and $930,021 in accounts payable, for a net value of $498,539.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Taking this a paranoid step further, the folks we/Rosewater are selling the Hub to are probably on nodding acquaintance with some very expensive and skilled lawyers.

     

    From Rosewater's PDF:

     

    http://bit.ly/MfIjmy

     

    and BTW, the picture there seems a bit deceptive since:

     

    "The system is packaged in a NEMA 3 rated outdoor enclosure" ...

     

    "The system is designed to meet the following applicable standards:
    a. IEEE-1547
    b. UL-1741
    c. UBC Zone 4 Seismic Rating
    d. NEC Code Compliance
    e. NEMA 3R Enclosure"

     

    Some PowerCube media I've seen this year made made some comforting points about fire suppression methods. Not sure how expensive providing that is, or how much of that is carried forward to this device.

     

    Anyway, there's the device destroys itself for any number of possible reasons (many not our fault) angle, and then there's the it didn't do what it was supposed to during some outage (or transformer in the neighborhood blows up) angle.

     

    So it will be interesting to see how liability is shared among Rosewater, Axion, and Indy Power Systems.Also to see what warranty will be offered, and what customer insurance will be required and possibly facilitated. But it's one more challenge to picking your inverter supplier. I take it the installers are being chosen with care as well, though I'm guessing they're a lot of independent contractors.

     

    Reminds me of the old joke ...

     

    Q: "what do you call the person who graduates LAST in their class from medical school?

     

    A: Doctor.
    18 Aug 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I think the picture is a sales model since sharing a level of detail to prospective clients in an enclosure obscures significant detail.

     

    BTW, Putting my "Design for Assembly" hat on. Given the mass of the components going into this residential cube there would be a significant level of internal structure required inside to secure all the components. Especially if you start rating the unit for continental N.A. earthquake zones.

     

    What I was thinking when I first looked at the picture some time ago was that they were building mechanically and electrically the inside of the power cube as a sub system (almost complete) on a structural frame. This they then loaded as a unit into the NEMA 3R enclosure with final assembly to any necessary enclosure interfaces (Displays, pass through connectors etc.). This is the way I would do it because it allows fully access for a large part of the mechanical and electrical assembly which would be far harder to accomplish inside of a restricted enclosure. The design shows they have been working with an integrator that knows a thing or two or most likely a s&^t load. Probably codes as well.

     

    Sorry for the detail. Started out in a job shop building stuff concept through final approval for special one off industrial test and assembly. I was the "sparky" that did the electrical design, code and debug on stuff just like this so like a few others here I can taste it! Only industrial though which is different.

     

    As for your liability thoughts. I hear ya ALL day long.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    "Things are happening behind the curtains. "

     

    Either stuff requiring fastening seat belts or harassment!

     

    I vote the former!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Granville's comment that made me buy another block at .30 was that capacity today is 3,000 anodes a day, which can be increased 2.5 if they initiate shifts, and that Axion has enough space to install 2 more lines.

     

    7.5 X 3,000 = 22,500 anodes/day X 250 days/yr = 5.6 million anodes/yr.

     

    The problem with Axion, in my understanding, has always been whether they are capable of manufacturing PbC anodes in mass amounts. Now I am convinced they can.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    billa: Welcome to the Axion Power Concentrator series. Great equation. However, you've missed in past Concentrators that Axion has the floor space to hold 11 robotic lines, not just two more, but ten more.

     

    Hoping you're now 8/11ths happier!
    19 Aug 2012, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall Tom specifying a number of electrode assemblies per day, although he did say that capacity exceeded current requirements and the number could be increased by a factor of 2.5 by going to shift work.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    Oops. I meant 8 more "robotic" lines happier.

     

    Quick math has potential production of ~ 24,750,000/yr electrode capacity, based on this equation.

     

    3000/day, times 3 shifts, times 250 days per year, times 11 lines.
    19 Aug 2012, 03:18 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (222) | Send Message
     
    billa_from_sf,
    Like JP, I didn't hear Granville say in this CC or other venue that they had a 3,000 anode/day capacity. This facility does have a permit (Land Use) to produce 3,000 batteries/day. That sort of permit would likely be specifying a maximum battery output. Such a limit could potentially be raised depending on a number of factors, but is not probably relevant to the question of anode manufacture. There might be no limit to that segment of AXION's business.
    Land Use permitting for battery manufacture likely sets a cap due to the environmental considerations of LAB manufacture, more than traffic, water use, employee parking... which are some of the considerations when issuing 'conditional use' permits.
    So whatever the current anode production capacity is, it can be doubled or tripled with shifts added, and multiplied again with added lines.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I went back and listened to the conference call again.

     

    Starting a little bit before 25 minutes in, Tom answered a question about capacity .

     

    You guys are right. I confused the 3,000 batteries/day capacity with anode manufacturing capacity, for which he did not give a number. He did say that with shifts the number able to be produced now could be increased 2.5 times, and he also said the current location can accommodate 11 robotic lines.

     

    The bottom line for me is that manufacturing capacity seems not to be an issue at this time, whereas in the past I thought I heard Tom say that they were working on improving throughput and quality on the robotic line.

     

    My understanding now is that multiple markets with many opportunities are opening up, and it seems that manufacturing capacity will not present any problems in meeting that demand.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Welcome aboard.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Is there a way to be notified when someone posts to a thread you have posted to? I am new to this site and haven't figured out how any of the features work yet.
    20 Aug 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    If you click the "track new comments on this article" box, you should get a little orange flag at the upper right hand corner of your screen when you enter the SA website, as long as you don't enter on a page that you're trying to track. When you click on the orange box, it will tell you how many new comments have been posted to articles you're following and if you select the articles from the drop down box all the new comments will be flagged in orange.

     

    To make everything work properly, I always enter SA at my contributor's page.
    20 Aug 2012, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.

     

    I found that box after posting my question about being notified, checked it, and your reply worked as advertised.

     

    It took me a couple of months to find this board. Getting off of Yahoo! was a great idea. I'm glad to have found you, iindelco, and some of the others who are posting here.

     

    Cheers!
    20 Aug 2012, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    It's impossible to carry on an intelligent conversation on Brand X so I don't even bother checking it anymore. The great thing about this forum is that the Host has moderation privileges and can delete trollish comment at will. The Host doesn't use that power often because he wants to promote the free flow of ideas and information, both positive and negative, but there's no room for irrelevance and foolishness.

     

    Since pages on SA start to load slowly if they get too long, the Host typically starts a new Concentrator when the old one gets to 175 to 200 comments. The latest information is always on the newest Concentrator.

     

    Down toward the bottom of this string there's a message from "Axion Power Host" that includes a link to the next concentrator, which is already up to 18 comments. It's important that you keep an eye out for the "Next Concentrator" posts if you want to keep up with the conversation.
    20 Aug 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    OK. Thanks!
    20 Aug 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    billa_ --- Another way to keep track of new developments of interest is to "Follow" instablog authors and commenters.

     

    That is, go to the top of a recent APC and click on "Follow" below Axion Power Host's profile at the top left side of the page. Or, "hover" your cursor over a commenter's name preceding a post and click the "Follow" icon in the pop up that appears on the right hand side of the page.
    20 Aug 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    Oooops! Hit reply too quick there, billa_

     

    Once you "Follow" an author (instablog, blog commenter) or comment on an instablog article, any new activity from the author or on the article will be flagged on your "My feed" display accessed through the inverted pyramid displayed next to your user name at top right-hand corner of SA pages.
    20 Aug 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your reply.

     

    Now that I've been using this site for a few hours, I have found the features you mentioned and started "following" a couple of my favorite posters.

     

    I appreciate everyone's help, and now I believe I can access what this site offers on my own.

     

    I know basically nothing about batteries, the auto industry, public utilities, or railroads, so you probably will not see me post here very often except to ask an occasional question or possibly share a link from the NY Times if they run something of interest there.

     

    But I am following this conversation with much interest because it is obvious that PbC is a game-changer and I am holding a substantial position (for me) in AXPW now and am gradually adding more.

     

    The last CC gave me a lot of confidence, particularly what Tom said about manufacturing capacity and that virtually every car manufactured in a few years is going to be stop/start and that Axion is talking to a wide variety of interested parties across a significant number of markets.

     

    My guess is that by 2015 the shares I own are going to be worth a lot of money. Being the kind of person who likes to look out the front windshield when I am going somewhere, reading this forum will help me understand where we are and where we are headed.

     

    GLTA, as they say.
    20 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    Billa,
    GLTA? Have you been taking lessons from Hard to Love and Jon Springer?
    20 Aug 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    Okay, I had to look up GLTA on the internet, I'm guessing it isn't

     

    Guangdong Lychee Technical Association
    Gay and Lesbian Tennis Alliance, or
    Grooters, Leapaldt, Tideman Architects

     

    but rather means,
    Good Luck to All.
    20 Aug 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    goat love to all
    21 Aug 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    That was the first time I ever used the acronym GLTA.
    I couldn't figure out how to sign off graciously, so I used it.
    I still think it had the right ring to it.
    21 Aug 2012, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    billa,
    A nice acronym for the board.
    21 Aug 2012, 04:25 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    GTLA Good luck to Axion or Axionistas
    21 Aug 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I like that – a common acronym with a friendly double entendre.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    Mr I; We're close cousins in thinking tonight. I just posted on the previous APC a hypothesis that Exide is the strategic partner.

     

    Your point of Axion stockpiling product, is another factor that I left out.

     

    'Tis a weekend of analysis and speculation ahead....
    17 Aug 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    Howdy, cuz. I remember you guys that went on the plant tour in June noticed and mentioned the stockpiling, so that was neat to hear TG mention it. Fun to speculate on why and how much.

     

    And looking forward to your comments from the Sept. show in 3 weeks!

     

    I also look forward to your bud that sold 300k shares getting back in sometime. Unfortunately for him, at a higher price!

     

    Just read it--nice post on 139.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: I'm very psyched about going to Indy, not only to hang with the Rosewater boys, but also to learn form the experts of experts how best to install my home media network. Lick'n my chops. I'll be all over the place, probably go hoarse, and then come back home more confused than ever, suffering from "boothitis visitas," weighted down from "pamphlet accumucollasis."

     

    Have you seen the CEDIA 2012 website?

     

    http://bit.ly/HaQq7j
    17 Aug 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    Maya, nice! And it's only 2 weeks, 4 days, 14 hrs and 2 minutes away.

     

    First there's CEDIA starting 9/5, then ELBC starting 9/25, then the SAE Comm'l Vehicle Engineering show starting 10/2. And JP starting weekly articles on TheStreet sometime. Looks like we'll see more news and info then in the recent past. Good for us.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    The only bad thing about them knowing who you are is that you can't go up to them and say, "so I'm thinking about getting a unit for my home, but it seems you don't have UL certification yet? If I place an order do you have a target date for it to be filled?" You'll have to keep your ears open and see if other potential buyers ask this and what Rosewater's response is.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    Lab: I'll wear a hobo disguise!

     

    Actually, Joe P. knows I live where a Hub would need to get homeowners association approval.

     

    Which brings up a point. Nearly four years ago, maybe three, HTL, FocalPoiont Analytics, Trip, Springer, and more Renegades watched me go bonkers about the Honduran-esk power going out all the time in my home. Aggravating! Especailly when a mom depended on an oxygen compressor.

     

    But, a new node was put in, and no longer do I experience outages like in the past.

     

    Anyone else see the electric company around where you live make improvements?
    18 Aug 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    In a word, no.
    18 Aug 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    Question about the electrode stockpiling. Anyone know how much the carbon costs per ton? I believe JP has previously posted some information on the weight of either the electrodes or the carbon itself in a discussion about the amount of lead displaced.

     

    That'd make it relatively easy to figure out the cost of stockpiling. Given the fixed cost of the line not to mention the semi-fixed cost of the staff to run the line, I suspect the actual material costs are comparatively small. Combine that with the benefits described above, you might have a very compelling case.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall, Not a clue on the cost of the raw Kurray carbon. I do know from one site I went to they have at least two grades of this material. One use I read about was that the material is used heavily in water treatment plants but that could be a grade that is lower than what Axion is using for their purposes. Once you start wanting guaranteed performance and certification then costs start to escalate. Might also require a different process path than the water treatment grade material.

     

    Also we don't know how much they are stockpiling in raw material for the various inputs to a PBC such as copper foil, raw lead bars, Si mating, cases, lugs etc. Plus they may be stock piling WIP (Work In Process) at various levels where there are significant levels of value added driving the inventory number up (your factory cost thoughts). All kinds of what ifs. I'd guess we might not be able to get a good feel for the magnitude of the stockpile but we can get a pretty good feel for the trending from some of the quarterly number dissection John has supplied with some other digging around.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Maya: About 9 months ago the transformer on the pole across the road, that had apparently been heading towards total failure for a long time, finally did fail.

     

    They replaced it with a new one and no problems since.

     

    I know that's only maintenance (which had obviously been deferred, but it's as close to "improvement" or "upgrade" as I can get with Duke Energy in charge).

     

    N.B. One day after the merger with Progress Energy was finalized Duke broke it's promise to the regulators and ousted the Progress CEO from the chair of the combo ("Golden parachute" understates what that guy got) and installed the Duke CEO. NC regulators are grilling them (BOD, CEOs, anybody who knew them type of stuff) big time now and requesting documents - lots and lots of documents.

     

    Might get interesting.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    For purposes of my back of the napkin calculations, I'm assuming that Axion is spending about $25,000 a ton for electronics grade carbon in low volumes. The economics work because it takes less than a pound of carbon to replace 15 to 20 pounds of lead. As Axion's requirements ramp, I'd expect the price of carbon to follow a pretty sharp decline curve.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, Correct spelling. Kuraray Chemical.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5953) | Send Message
     
    Does the costs line item in the 10 Q reflect total cost for all manufacturing or only costs associated with the actual sales?
    18 Aug 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    Manufacturing costs are added to inventory as products are made and then deducted from inventory when the products are delivered.
    18 Aug 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5953) | Send Message
     
    Thank you John.
    18 Aug 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    Thanks iidelco and JP. So that's roughly $12.50 for the carbon offsetting 15+lbs of lead at $1/lb. As iindelco wrote, that doesn't include the cost of the other materials that go into the electrode.

     

    Still, with these numbers you could say that the cost of the raw materials for PbC and AGM are roughly similar. That's a great basis to have.

     

    If we assume that roughly 1,000 PbC batteries were sold in Q2 at $400/each, then that would imply that Axion went through about $12,500 worth of the carbon. I'm not having much luck with the search tool right now to find out the monthly PbC production capacity, so I apologize for not having the best numbers. If we assume 5,000 batteries per month per line is capacity, that'd be $185k in carbon per quarter, a very meaningful number.

     

    Note, if Axion sold 5,000 PbC batteries in any given month, that'd be $2m in revenue. Maybe the best point to note is that $12.50 for the carbon represents about 3% of the price of the battery.

     

    Going on, if we assume the $5m cost for the electrode line is amortized over 5 years and the line costs $1m/year to staff and run, that's $2m/year. If electrodes for 60,000 PbC batteries can be produced in a year, that'd be a cost of about $33 that'd be allocated to each battery.

     

    Very rough numbers that we can refine, but hopefully a useful ballpark guess that shows that the raw materials likely don't represent the bulk of the costs of the electrode line, especially at the current level of sales.
    18 Aug 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    The graphene sheeting Axion uses as a corrosion barrier between the carbon electrode and the current collector is probably the most costly component. Unfortunately, I have no sense of what that material costs and don't know how we could go about running it down.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    Don't know what this will do, but it can't hurt. How about giving a thumbs up to Rosewater? Scroll down and hit the thumb:

     

    http://bit.ly/P479rR
    17 Aug 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13483) | Send Message
     
    #15 done.

     

    I predict 100 by tomorrow morning...
    17 Aug 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    According to Woody Guthrie in Alice's Restaurant, that's twice as many as we need for a "movement".
    17 Aug 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    Going through the list of booths it was nice to see that there doesn't seem to be a lot of competing energy conditioning/storage equipment at the expo. So Rosewater should get a lot of attention if there really is a market for this.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    #26, done. 19 more than the next highest. Hope it doesn't backfire somehow.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    #33
    18 Aug 2012, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (276) | Send Message
     
    #43
    18 Aug 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    #44, 6x more than any other exhibitor
    18 Aug 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    #54
    18 Aug 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    # 55. Looking forward to your input from the show, Maya.
    18 Aug 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    67 already!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Renzo: IIRC, it was Arlo - one of my favs from the era. Woodie was his father - big in his own way and genre.

     

    As to "movement", don't forget the TP! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    You're right of course, HTL.

     

    It's because I recently lost my 8x10 color glossy picture with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the bad explaining what each one was.

     

    Renzo
    18 Aug 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3361) | Send Message
     
    #83. We're going to get into the triple digits soon. Prolly 10x the next runner up. Definitely going to get some attention of some kind. Good or bad, just don't know. This thing could be the holy grail for folks in that biz, though it does prompt the question of why nothing similar has been introduced until now... what is the PbC bringing to this device that LA, AGM, or Li-Ion couldn't or hasn't? Better price? Cycle and Calendar life that could approach a decade? Passive String Equalization? SAFETY? The trajectory of its acceptance / demand / success is going to be very instructive...
    18 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, 48, Now if everyone just hits the like 4 more times Joe P. is going to think he's gonna get rich.......again.
    18 Aug 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    48: There are several other home battery systems out there, including Panasonic's:

     

    http://bit.ly/Nxupmg
    18 Aug 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3361) | Send Message
     
    Ok very nice, but is Panasonic's thing actually on the market? At what price? UL listed? Was it ever debuted at a similar show? To what response? Is it selling like gangbusters? Obviously all questions none of us have answers to. But for me bottom line is why is Joe Pic seeing such interest now if our Hub is merely a ho-hum johnny come lately also-ran?
    18 Aug 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Maya, And Panasonic has regal genes vs Axion. Saint Elon is into everything.

     

    "Both SolarCity and Panasonic are developing small batteries for homes or small businesses to guard against power outages, either from intermittency issues, as in Germany, or to protect against natural disasters in the US.

     

    In the US, SolarCity is starting sales of a back-up lithium battery for its solar PV systems.

     

    Tesla's Chairman, Elon Musk, who sits on SolarCity's board (and is first cousin of the owners), adopted the advanced batteries it uses in its premium electric vehicles for use as back-up for solar."

     

    http://bit.ly/OxV1h5
    18 Aug 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    #88
    18 Aug 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm,
    Power goes out for a week, another St. Elon brick.
    18 Aug 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3361) | Send Message
     
    That's probably not the idea. If the power's out for a week, you run your propane/ diesel/ gasoline generator for a couple of hours every other day to keep a decent charge up...
    18 Aug 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    #93
    18 Aug 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    94
    18 Aug 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    I wish I knew more about electrical engineering. Is 1.35kWh really enough to run your home for a week if the power goes out? Makes it sound like you can plug in the refrig and a few other smaller devices but I'm assuming that's not enough power to run an AC unit? If it was winter, would it be enough to run the blower for a gas furnace?
    18 Aug 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    Lab, if memory serves the unit is expected to run 12 hours with priority circuits. But fire up the genset for an hour or so and you have another 12 hours (wish my batteries charged that fast). You also have solar and wind to assist...
    19 Aug 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "Is 1.35kWh really enough to run your home for a week if the power goes out?"

     

    That would not be enough energy to power my home (all electric except furnace heat source) for an "average" hour, LT. KWh billed thus far in 2012, by month (January - July) were 896, 832, 1334, 1135, 1170, 1902, and 2505. July was much higher than the other months due to two factors - 1) above average temps even for July and 2) added five people to the household for more than a week while PUs repaired storm damage and restored power in wake of the early July "derecho" that struck Ohio, W. Va., Md, parts of Va. and Del. (Our central AC was one of, if not the, most efficient mass market units available when installed in 1990, but not energy efficient by today's standards.)
    19 Aug 2012, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    1.35 kWh is enough energy to power your Tesla Model S four miles, or power most vacuum cleaners for an hour.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Renzo: They're still at the bottom of that dump somewhere.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    interesting. Each person can thumbs up the same product 5 times.
    22 Aug 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    I voted the other day with one vote and as an experiment voted again today and got 5 votes. Leads me to think that one could vote 5 more times in a few days. Just as an interesting aside.
    22 Aug 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1510) | Send Message
     
    Wasn't able to put in bid until after noon today. Put in bid for .29 but with about 20 minutes to go gave up and went to .30. My 20,000 shares were the last trades of the day. Whew, now don't have to be stressed on Monday.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Posted this on the wrong concentrator. Sorry for the repeat. Blame Maya - I am! :>D

     

    "Wonder if Axion's public comments about seeking a strategic partner was a simple way to also tell Exide to get real or get lost?" And yes, I have no faith in Xide's management. It is great to be big - unless you are both big and stupid.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Bang, Unfortunately, As you could tell, I do that all the time. Oh well!

     

    I'm not counting Exide out but I can't get too excited that anything has changed with them. But, Ya never know.

     

    I'd bet one thing though. If they did come back it will take a bigger engagement ring and they will not leave with it if the wedding is called off again. And the initial hand holding will be far more reserved.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget the concertina wire chastity belt.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (760) | Send Message
     
    I once laid concertina wire in the desert, back when Reagan was president.
    18 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Well, You do learn at least one new thing every day. I was only familiar with the term razor wire. Don't think I've every heard concertina wire used before. Perhaps because I never served in the military?
    18 Aug 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    Very nasty stuff, sure makes you think twice without artillery to blow holes in the wire defenses.
    18 Aug 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    SD: Heck now they have that cord stuff they use for clearing mines in the mid-east. Ought to do a "bang up" job!

     

    <*ducks shoes again*>

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (222) | Send Message
     
    As East Penn is still listed on AXION's website as a development partner, why does the sentiment seem to favor Exide or JCI? All three are well respected as battery manufacturers, but AXION has only acknowledged East Penn as some form of partner (development collaborator), since the fiasco with the exclusive they previously had with Exide!

     

    http://bit.ly/N74uvU
    17 Aug 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    42itus1,
    For me, Exide is still on the radar because of the DOE grant and the fact that they will be bringing online at the OH plant the ability to produce over a million AGM batteries by the end of this year. Now they've already put out PR suggesting they are going to use that line for their own AGM batteries with carbon additives, but the original DOE grant application said that the line was there to make PbC batteries with their supply partner-Axion. So we shall see.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    My bet is East Penn. Too many complications with the Ultrabattery otherwise <smile>... Although I would really like to see EnerSys and Axion get together to make a battery...
    18 Aug 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    I don't think East Penn sells in Europe, but XIDE and JCI do.

     

    Not sure about European AGM production facilities for those two yet, but if they're recently built them here, surely them must be doing it there as well.

     

    I could see East Penn for the Railroad applications though (in time)
    18 Aug 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    In the olden days we were thinking two to three manufacturing partners in each of North America, Europe and Asia. The idea was to obviate the "sole source" problem while keeping the club exclusive. East Penn has always been penciled into one of the North American slots.
    18 Aug 2012, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (760) | Send Message
     
    I understand that Exide has a good chance to prosper now that their reorg is mostly done and AGM promises to be a higher margin product. But do they have the cash to be the kind of partner Axion needs at this time? Last I looked, they had secured notes paying more than 10 percent; it can't be economical for them to borrow to do this.
    18 Aug 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Jpau: in a private discussion, I also raised the "wherewithal" issue. I added in reducing GDP growth around the world as another possible headwind for Exide.

     

    If we add in a (potentially) cautious forward outlook by management, especially if just emerging from a difficult period with some more overhang left to clear out yet, I can't see them committing to a new endeavor with concomitant risk (and drain on needed(?) resources) at this time.

     

    I think it needs to be someone in stronger shape that feels the coming headwinds will be survivable and the added risk and resource consumption are justified by being first and having an ROI estimate that's good in spite of a pessimistic general outlook.

     

    MHO, and in ignorance,
    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (760) | Send Message
     
    Thanks H.T., I see the same things
    18 Aug 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "As East Penn is still listed on AXION's website as a development partner, why does the sentiment seem to favor Exide or JCI? "

     

    Why does everyone seem to assume the first PbC battery manufacturing partner will be a U.S. company? Seems to me the European battery company that worked with Ford and BMW on suitability of AGMs for s/s is a potential candidate, particularly for PbC sales in EU.
    18 Aug 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "If we add in a (potentially) cautious forward outlook by management, especially if just emerging from a difficult period with some more overhang left to clear out yet, I can't see them committing to a new endeavor with concomitant risk (and drain on needed(?) resources) at this time."

     

    I tend to agree. OTOH, if AGMs are inadequate for s/s and all/most auto OEMs plan to transition all non-EV/PHEV models to s/s ala BMW's alleged plan, Exide survival five years hence could depend on access to PbC electrodes.
    18 Aug 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    I've always been doubtful of JCI being a manufacturing partner, at least in the short term, because they've spent so much of their own money on R&D to make their AGM batteries with carbon paste to be the direct competition to the PbC. The last thing they want, as they are now ramping up their AGM productions for start-stop, is to be told that they've wasted their time. Granted the PbC isn't ready for the mass market yet, so they will have the majority of sales until it is, but I think they are going to have to be pulled into PbC battery production kicking and screaming.
    IMHO
    18 Aug 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    The two biggest battery suppliers to European automakers are JCI and Exide.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I'm not positive that JCI is working with carbon past additives, although I know Exide is. For now both of them are whistling past the graveyard pretending that their AGM products will be good enough. Unfortunately they're both ignoring the reality that stop-start requires the battery to do something approaching 100 times the work.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4543) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Is " I'm not positive that JCI is working with carbon past additives" a change of factual base or opinion from "Johnson Controls (JCI), Exide Technologies (http://bit.ly/Qem9C8) and several other companies are already using carbon paste additives in enhanced versions of their flooded and AGM batteries with notable success. Others will follow." ?

     

    http://bit.ly/Qem69i
    19 Aug 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I know JCI has worked on carbon additives but I'm unclear about whether they've moved the additives into their product line yet because I can't point to a specific JCI product description that talks about carbon additives where Exide is very up front about the issue – http://bit.ly/NTPSnC.

     

    It's not so much a change of factual base as "adding some weasel words" in case my understanding is flawed.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    Observation:

     

    TG's answer to short term market:...Railroad...R...
    Siltek/Navy Yard..."Lots of small cube" RFPs.
    Residential......with another prompting question:
    Grid
    Commercial Building (UPS?)

     

    Talk about a topsy-turvy strategy...NOT meant to be negative...cup half full...but opportunities galore.

     

    Remember when the top subject was SS auto?
    18 Aug 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    For me automotive and grid are not short term. However maybe, just maybe, Rosewater could shake a little money lose in Canada on a neighborhood distributed power demonstration project Q3 next year.

     

    As for NS. I just can't figure them out. All that freakin R&D money spent, appears the technology is fully confirmed, then they move like a snail on a rough dry sidewalk. If I was assigned to that project over all these years I'd be pulling my darn hair out. Ugggh!
    18 Aug 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    NS knows there are watchers of the NS999 engine, what a good red herring to let the engine sit and convert another engine for testing in secret. Just a diabolical thought. ;-)
    18 Aug 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, Don't think I haven't looked at tons and tons of NS related sites to figure this out in the past. Not just the NS plans but to see if I could see any path to give clues of some of their other locomotive electrification plans. I even watched the rail photo sites to see if I could catch the NS999 moving toward the shop and watching Green Goats at the various railroads thinking at one point they might buy those on the cheap and upgrade the energy storage systems.

     

    No, I think now, especially given TG's comments that it's the NS999. And if you think about it there's not that much reason to hide progress on the NS999. It's not like they are building it to move ICBM's around because there is less of an audible and heat signature! Are they? :o))
    18 Aug 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    My reasoning is "once bitten, twice shy". After the very public disappointment with the original NS999 failure, they might want a little cover in secrecy.
    18 Aug 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    "building it to move ICBM's around because there is less of an audible and heat signature! Are they? :o)) "

     

    Once Homeland Security finds out about it, it'll be used for something nefarious - maybe in conjunction with the now-authorized and executing random roadblocks for unconstitutional search and (possible) seizure.

     

    "I'm sorry ma'am - that big ol' locomotive stalled out right at the crossing! Say, as long as your stuck here waiting, would mind if I took a look in your car ... and do you have identification for you and your children?".

     

    Darn - this TFH must be defective - I'm receiving secret messages between some unknown entities now!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Stilldaze, I'm with you all the way on your thoughts here on the disappointment. However I would suggest that this is much of the reason for the costly long duration testing that has been going on. For the people directly responsible for the engineering and direct administration of NS999 job one it was a big egg on face outcome. Since it appears that at least the 2 primary NS people responsible for the program the first time are still involved they will make sure it doesn't happen again.

     

    But cloaking the work is another story all together. It doesn't help them one bit to hide the project. Yes, the details but not that it's occurring.

     

    If NS999 job 2 goes as bad as job 1 somebody reasonably big is gonna get whacked. MHO.
    18 Aug 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    HTL, LOL.

     

    Have you had lunch with any Homeland Security people? Maybe you swapped TFH's by mistake?

     

    BTW, Did you see the JFK airport breach where the jet skier walked into the airport after jumping a fence from the water side when his ride failed? Homeland security had spent 100 million USD to secure the airport via Raytheon. Let me think of the phrase, Oh, Idiots with no accountability.

     

    Anyway, Maybe what went wrong is the contractor confused their grade school history lessons with a contract administration business class. One if by land and two if by sea. Still waiting for the second money makin contract to finish the job!

     

    In the some of old auto industry the saying was "Do a good job get a check. Do a bad job get overtime". Sad to say I witnessed too many people that were rewarded heavily because they lived by that saying. Their children will not have the same opportunity.
    18 Aug 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Equally as frustrated as everyone else on this, but still bought more when the price bottomed this past week.

     

    It was interesting that TG mentioned that NS did receive 200 or so PbC this quarter even though they did not fulfill NS999 order. What were they for? One idea is that they are adjusting the battery to be able to accept up to 300 amps which might be necessary for the OTR locomotive on the Crescent Corridor. The current version can go up to 200, but the higher it could go the more energy could be recovered. If they are going to order batteries for OTR that can achieve this, perhaps they want the switcher batteries to be the same type to ease their maintenance, etc. Just an idea. Probably more a hope.
    18 Aug 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Yes, read about that security breach.

     

    Not much to say that would any value - an expensive "SNAFU" if ever there was one.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Gottliep: Don't forget the "consists" that DRich and others brought to our attention. More power could be harvested, where the route justifies it, by adding a second, third, ... PbC locomotive to the engine sequence. Assuming even a simple power division with no controls, amperage would be divided among the electric locomotives 50/50, 33/33/33, ... This predicated on the fact that all were at a similar state of charge. If there were an imbalance, lower SOC would get more amperage and I do believe some management system is needed.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4543) | Send Message
     
    >gottliep ... Just a point, I am not going to go back and dig up the link, but NS has tested to 400 amps and figures it can be pushed higher. There is just no need to go higher.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I didn't interpret Tom's statement as saying that NS had bought a couple hundred PbCs in the last quarter. Instead I believe he was using NS as an example and saying that it had purchased a couple hundred batteries over the life of the testing program. Since I'm certain that every delivery of a PbC battery for testing is accompanied by an NDA, I don't think Tom's in a position where he can or should offer more detail on who's been buying all those PbCs.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    DRich, HTL and JP thanks for the explanations. Just trying to rationalize NS delay in some way. As my mother used to say, a rationalization a day keeps the shrink away.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (160) | Send Message
     
    HTL -- watch out, that TFH may have been designed by the government and is working as intended! More research may be necessary.

     

    http://bit.ly/xTb6uk
    20 Aug 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Did you notice the Ttest equipment being used? The Agilent 8714"ET".

     

    Somebody is going to "phone home" I think. Notice the "guy" in the phone booth?

     

    Those folks look suspiciously like "foreign" agents to me.

     

    Notice they don't disclose their funding source!

     

    Thanks for the "heads up"! <|:-|

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Deamiter, Actually I think this research did in fact yield advancements leading to even further signal attenuation. We see that in this demonstration. (Study data excluded as proprietary)

     

    http://bit.ly/SIBsVQ
    20 Aug 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    As soon as "V" day comes, I suggest we all cash in a few shares
    each and get HTL a new Gold Foil Hat (GFH)
    In recognition of his tireless TA work.
    We can have it engraved "Axion Enabled"

     

    Any particular style you prefer Hard ??
    20 Aug 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    CO3: Thanks for rembering us poor abused TFHers!

     

    Warning: associative processor (amped on lots of coffee) at work.

     

    Yes, I do have a preference. The new V 2.0

     

    http://tinyurl.com/8sw...

     

    As you can see, it is enhanced with a "stealth" feature, being embedded in the item. At last we can venture out in public, well protected, without suffering the snickers, rude stares and averted eyes so commonly experienced by our kind.

     

    The units have been in "fleet testing" for extended periods and been seen, albeit unknown by the viewing public (meeting the goal), at such places as The World Poker Tour, The World Poker Championships and many other venues.

     

    I suspect that one of our nemeses has acquired a pre-production version. This individual has snookered million upon millions into publicly exposing information, both private and public, in a consolidated format, enabling "Them" to more conveniently and efficiently identify, monitor, track (and possibly imprison?) those that may someday represent a threat to the "established order".

     

    We've begun an internal investigation into the source that may have "leaked" the pre-production version and *most* Axionistas have been either fully exonerated or are no longer suspected.

     

    How Mark Zuckerberg obtained this item is of great interest and Axionistas with knowledge of this event are encouraged to step forward (in private, of course).

     

    Zuckerberg has obviously put the item to great use, but may not have used it to full effect as one of his board members unloaded a $h*tload of shares, going from a position of ~22MM to ~5.5MM. I'm sure they've begun an internal investigation as well to discover how this board member knew Zuck was using the item, causing him to unload earlier than otherwise.

     

    Zuckerberg's use of the TFH V 2.0 was, IMO, both an indication that he suspected what would happen to his stock price and a "Material Adverse Event", in which he failed his fiduciary duty by not disclosing that he was using the item.

     

    Again, thinks for the consideration, our kind don't receive such often.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Aug 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    Observation part deux:

     

    Powerful closing statement by TG.

     

    Repeated short term opportunities AND oil well...solar/wind...im... if you will what affect that will have on the missing piece of solar/wind...they become very viable (sans subsidies) overnight (no pun intended)...new Asia player...second RR player.

     

    If AXPW were a more well known/visible entity, all this would have to move the pps needle!

     

    IMHO
    18 Aug 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    "If AXPW were a more well known/visible entity, all this would have to move the pps needle!".

     

    I'm with JP on this one - not until the overhang of exiting big holders is completed.

     

    It's a lot like a garage sale - you don't care so much what you get for the item - you just want it gone.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    You know HTL, It was over a week ago when some of the math being thrown about had Quercus gone (I think they are done until their next and hopefully last filing), the BK administrator gone ( Right about the time this was suggested the tone of the sales changed significantly so I think they are done), and BlackRock well on their way if they were looking to get out fully (Can't have come to that decision if they have an ANAList in the cc) .

     

    With the level of sales lately there seems to be more medium sized players getting out. It has been theorized that perhaps it's the company doing the last offering selling their commision. Perhaps but with 3 million shares the last 3 trading days and a pretty stable price this would have offered them exit in short order.

     

    Who else? The buyers of the last offering? I'll grant you they can't be too happy about getting such a discount and being underwater. But they had pretty good DD done before they bought and they have only been around a short time. Look at the progress Axion has made based on their last cc and 10Q. Are these people that anxious or stupid that they would have expected more progress than that over approximately 6 months with a micro cap start up.

     

    My impression. Something else is going on here. Axionistas giving up. Some I'm sure but even if we just use the signals from a few here that are sharing purchase activity there is some good volume moving in from this group as well. So I'd venture a guess that at least for the Axionistas the pressure has been neutral worst case.

     

    I didn't expect a large move up from what I considered a good progress report void of any "In your face" surprises. But I also didn't expect some entity(s) to put up a short term steel wall at .30 centavos either.

     

    Thoughts. Where am I all wet here?
    18 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    If you look back at 2011 when our two big identifiable sellers were Special Sits and Quercus, they typically accounted for about 25% of total trading or about half of the sell-side volume in each quarter. The rest of the sell-side volume came from *normal* market activity. So as a general rule of thumb, I assume 25% of volume reduces the supply in the *legacy stockholders* barrel.

     

    When you have lots of data points and regular reporting it's pretty easy to figure out where the stock is coming from. It gets tougher as the data points get older or fuzzier and you're left with estimates based on historic patterns, rough estimates and a bit of conjecture.

     

    The BK trustee had 2 million shares at July 1. Quercus had 780,000 shares to sell at July 1. The brokers for the February placement had 800,000 at August 1. The total for those three known holders was ±3.6 million shares. Using the rule of thumb it would take 14.3 million shares of total trading to absorb them.

     

    We had 7.8 million shares of total trading in July and 5.4 million so far in August. Unless we have Blackrock or somebody else in there selling that we can't identify the bottom of the barrel is very near. Until that last bit of sloppy stock is absorbed, there will be sloppy stock available. Then a market that's used to absorbing 180,000 shares a day on the buy side will only have 90,000 shares a day of available supply on the sell side, and the relentless downward pressure of the last two years will reverse instantaneously.
    18 Aug 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    I have to comment that the stock holding .30 with all the volume the past two days has been encouraging to me that the stock will eventually start rising. Probably slowly up to .33-.35 at best absent an announcement of some sort. I still would like to know who bought the over 1M shares sold this past week.
    18 Aug 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Yes, But if you look at the Q filings before they ceased, they started selling on 6/25 and the accounting stopped on 7/18 with 498,740 shares sold already. That left 351,260 remaining until they file again for the disposal of the remainder of their holdings. I'd say their regimented disposition and the number of shares traded between the last filing and now has them as a non factor at this time and actually awhile ago.. " Temper your thought process with this remaining data set and "The end is nearer" if not behind us. Of coarse there are all kinds of other variables being excluded.

     

    The last 3 days of heavy trading with a stone wall said something odd to me when I consider the math we're discussing. If we see high volume for another couple of days and we still see a stone wall there has to be another factor to consider in my mind. No rational entity sits there at .30 centavos with that kind of buying pressure and throws away the opportunity to step aside for some, even brief, period of time to pick up a few extra dinero.
    18 Aug 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2621) | Send Message
     
    I know HTL and JP have said the FINRA report can be inconclusive in the very short run, but holy cow, 583k shares on Friday, out of 931k shares traded in total.
    18 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: working on a reply, along with my daily and experimental stuff. Will have something a bit later.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Got you HTL, I appreciate the input from everyone on this topic, now and historically. I know how much effort everyone is putting into tracking this and it is good to have this as a tool for sure. It's just now that I see a level of disconnect between where I would expect to be, or soon be, and what I am seeing ignoring obvious other factors we might imagine but can't see.

     

    Just to clarify, I didn't expect to see a large move in either direction given the report. What I expected was to see a more normal distribution with the stock moving randomly over a range. What I'm seeing is not a normal distribution for sure. Only referring to short term.
    18 Aug 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Another thing to consider are those long term moving averages creeping down. It won't take much to get up through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (.32 and .37x) and when that does happen I think any watchers on the sidelines might have a lot of company buying up a limited supply of shares.
    18 Aug 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "Look at the progress Axion has made based on their last cc and 10Q. Are these people that anxious or stupid that they would have expected more progress than that over approximately 6 months with a micro cap start up."

     

    Count me among the stupid, iind. It seems to me we are talking about a micro cap start up that has been working since 2003 to commercialize PbC technology - not just the last 6 months. We are talking about 6.5 months since hiring a "top gun" business development and marketing executive that has neither been seen nor heard since hiring, but we are informed of new "exclusive marketing agreements" with Rosewater Energy for sale not only of the new residential HUB but also of the PowerCube.

     

    WTB asked specific questions about the respective roles of Axion, Rosewater Energy, and Viridity re-manufacturing and marketing. Investors were granted a straightforward unambiguous response with respect to manufacturing - Axion is the manufacturer of PowerCube (and residential HUB) products as well as PbC battery products. Viridity Energy is regarded as a marketing partner. TG deflected WTB's clearly expressed interest in clarification of respective roles of Axion personnel and Rosewater Energy in marketing Axion products.

     

    I was not able to participate in the conference call or listen to it until this afternoon. And before listening to the CC, I read the accumulated comments about it in APCs 137 or 138 - 140. My earphones weren't as rosey as those of many listeners. To me, the CC basically signaled that Joe Piccirilli has squeezed Vani Dantam out of marketing anything other than mobile applications and taken control of marketing the PowerCube in all variants. The Rosewater Energy site, in depicting a train while their product listing is limited to PowerCubes, strongly suggests to me that Piccirilli & Co are also targeting rail applications - effectively leaving Dantam with auto and trucking OEMs. (And, I think anyone accepting Piccirilli's claim that Rosewater Energy is uniquely qualified for marketing of PowerCubes has a loose screw or two.)
    18 Aug 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    D-I,
    While there may be some strutting and bluster (if I understand you correctly) on the part of Rosewater, the way I understand the agreement with Rosewater reads they must put up or shut up. Talk is cheap, show me the money.
    19 Aug 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater is primarily focused on the residential HUB and pursuing some potential markets for the PowerCube. The idea that Rosewater has somehow squeezed Vani Dantam into a limited role is balderdash.

     

    Rosewater's principals are uniquely qualified and connected to push the HUB into the high end residential market because Joe Pic's prior company AVAD was one of the biggest distributors of high end residential electronics in the country. They've never claimed to be uniquely qualified to sell the PowerCube, although they do have some solid relationships in the middle east that may be helpful. They're not involved in rail.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Thanks, as always for the clarification.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: My detailed reply ran over two pages. I've posted it in my experimental instablog as a comment to spare the disinterested and may make a chart and move it into my header. Haven't decided yet.

     

    ======================...
    SUMMARY: The considerations below, in aggregate, make me think that Axionistas exiting are not a substantial part of the release of shares into the market. I think most of the selling came from “fence-sitters”, “momentum players” and possibly our ever-present “biggie sellers”..

     

    This is, of course, an incomplete picture (jeez - I get so tired of the word "incomplete" in this sort of context) since short sales will also occur on "buys", which would be preferable from the seller's POV.

     

    Warning: the following is based on incomplete information, guesses (SWAGs of course), assumptions, deductions, inductions, reductions, seductions (OOPS!), productions, subductions, ;-) and any other “uctions” we can think of.

     

    Somebody big may not yet be gone unless they "got gone" Friday. This possibility is based on daily short sale volume and other factors I get into later. However, there are some points that suggest the current active crop of big sellers are gone or at least an unusually small percentage of Friday’s action.

     

    But there is an alternate possibility that may account for part of the short sales percentage. To me, it doesn’t strongly point to “Axionistas” exiting.

     

    I believe that “fence-sitters” and/or momentum players combined with any dregs of “biggie sellers” account for the volume of short sales seen Friday.
    ======================...

     

    Details here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I've been studying market inflections since the early '90s and have never been able to precisely identify one through the windshield. Once they hit the rear-view mirror, however, they're plain as day.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "Rosewater is primarily focused on the residential HUB and pursuing some potential markets for the PowerCube. The idea that Rosewater has somehow squeezed Vani Dantam into a limited role is balderdash."

     

    I hope you are correct in that assessment, JP. Time will tell.

     

    "Rosewater's principals are uniquely qualified and connected to push the HUB into the high end residential market because Joe Pic's prior company AVAD was one of the biggest distributors of high end residential electronics in the country. They've never claimed to be uniquely qualified to sell the PowerCube, although they do have some solid relationships in the middle east that may be helpful. They're not involved in rail."

     

    No challenge to your thoughts re-high end residential market which is the way I interpreted Pirricilli's own comments until TG stated near the end of the CC that Rosewater Energy was exclusive distributor of the PowerCube.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    While I'm careful to avoid talking to Axion because I don't want access to non-public information, I talk with the Rosewater guys on a regular basis because they're old friends and I want to better understand what they're doing. Since Rosewater hasn't made any public statements to back up anything I might write, I don't write anything. I do, however, keep pretty close tabs on where their interest lies.

     

    Rosewater is the exclusive distributor for the HUB, not the PowerCube. Maya will be spending a day with the Rosewater crew next month at CEDIA. It will be far better for him to report on what he saw and heard than for me to report on idle chat.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "If we see high volume for another couple of days and we still see a stone wall there has to be another factor to consider in my mind".

     

    Ditto. Recall that I mentioned a few things related to that. One was that I was very surprised by the volume 8/14. At the time I didn't think about the cause of it - just happy to see it as the price stayed strong.

     

    I also said I expected to see volume drop off over the next few days. It did for one day now and I expect a big drop the next couple days *if* my conclusions reached in my recently-penned "epistle" are correct.

     

    One of these is that I thought the data may have supported John's "They're almost outta here" statements recently. If volume does drop big and doesn't rebound in a day or two on price weakness, I think "The Dream Is Realized" and the big sellers are out for at least a little bit.

     

    If volume goes big on weakness, just more of the same for a while longer I guess. But I will henceforth be watching the short:sell ratio. I think it holds some promise.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "One of these is that I thought the data may have supported John's "They're almost outta here" statements recently."

     

    Shouldn't we keep in mind that JP's analysis as well as those of others have invariably assumed that Q would stick to disposal of the shares declared in their last filing. We have no way of knowing whether or not they would have amended that count if they remained obligated to report. But, their share holdings have fallen below the % ownership threshold.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, That portion of my statement was targeted specifically at this group only ("The buyers of the last offering?"). I am questioning if this specific group of investors could possibly be so impatient that they are causing some of the recent selling pressure. This would let me that they entered the position with a traders mentality and not that of an investor. Remember that this group of buyers bought a large block of shares. Sorry if I didn't make this clear.

     

    I'll add some comments to the balance of your thoughts in a subsequent post because you bring up a lot of points.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    That's not entirely accurate, although the explanation is a bit complex.

     

    The obligation to file transaction reports on Form 4 terminates the day after a stockholder ceases to be a 10% beneficial owner.

     

    The obligation to file Notices of Planned Sales under Rule 144 does not terminate until 90-daus after a stockholder ceases to be a 10% beneficial owner.

     

    In its June 14th Form 144 filing, Quercus said it planned to sell 850,000 shares over the next 90 days. Based on the reports Quercus filed before checking the exit box on it's July 18th Form 4 (http://1.usa.gov/NljECI) we have good reason to believe those shares have already been sold.

     

    Quercus cannot change its plans and sell more shares without filing an amended Form 144. That obligation will not terminate until mid-October. If Quercus decides to sell more shares in the next two months it will have to make another Form 144 filing. After mid-October they'll go invisible.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "The obligation to file Notices of Planned Sales under Rule 144 does not terminate until 90-daus after a stockholder ceases to be a 10% beneficial owner."

     

    Thanks for the additional info.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I'm thinking about some of your comments regarding how RoseWater and Mr. Dantam play out in Axion's sales model. If I used only TG's words for clarification in trying to understand this for my own needs I'd be confused as heck (hope heck works Maya!) because he's all over the place IMHO.

     

    Her's how I see it.

     

    Mr. Dantam is experienced in industrial sales ONLY. He has, to the best of my ability to understand it, zero retail sales experience. This includes setting up relationships with distributors selling into retail markets. He is large scale industrial only which is a market which differs significantly from retail.

     

    Rosewater on the other hand has, from what I can garner, a past history of starting up and growing a very successful retail distribution channel targeting the residential/small business sector (Others can probably word this better than I but I think you can see the difference in what I'm trying to relay). Having this past gives this company the talent and the contacts to replicate this with another product offering.

     

    I don't think RoseWater is the strongest entity to sell Power cubes into the US utility market or even perhaps the oil sector. But for the residential/small business sector his experience and contacts put him in a class Mr. Dantam can't and wouldn't even begin to understand. And the inverse is true when it comes to industrial sales.

     

    So, This is my take and it's not something you'd necessarily come to this conclusion on by listening to TG's fragmented delivery on the topic over the last year or so.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    The interplay of all these rules is really confusing so I try to avoid the detail whenever possible, but until we see more paper from Quercus we don't need to worry about Quercus as a seller.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I think you did a great job of assessing the strengths and focus of each marketing team.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4103) | Send Message
     
    "Mr. Dantam is experienced in industrial sales ONLY. He has, to the best of my ability to understand it, zero retail sales experience. This includes setting up relationships with distributors selling into retail markets. He is large scale industrial only which is a market which differs significantly from retail."

     

    Thanks for sharing that thought. Settles the mud quite a bit.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm chewing and chewing on this. It's going to take awhile for sure.

     

    Thanks in advance for your efforts. I'll reserve comments until I'm done. Not a post for a speed reader for sure! Nibble, contemplate look around, read it again.....well, I would suggest you understand. ;)
    19 Aug 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Yep, but if volume remains decent, the amount remaining Quercus can sell without conversion of the warrants is, as JP says, "Nothing More Than A Speed Bump".

     

    My concern then turns first to Special Situations, whom I stated is exhibiting symptoms common to a swing trader AFAICT now, and then the unknowns of Blackrock and Mannituck Hill.

     

    I think those represent both the biggest possible threats and also possible positive impetus ATM.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    To clarify, "short:sell" really s/b viewed as "short volume / sells volume". After reading the above I realized it could be easily confused with "short sales".

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (980) | Send Message
     
    Di

     

    "To me, the CC basically signaled that Joe Piccirilli has squeezed Vani Dantam out of marketing... Piccirilli & Co are also targeting rail applications - effectively leaving Dantam with auto and trucking OEMs."

     

    Not sure how you came up with that conclusion.
    But, ATM, speculation is mostly what we have until we get a catalyst.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if Mr. Dantam will ultimately get a lot of the credit for the new Asian OEM. If so, we may ultimately decide his hiring was a stroke of genius ... even if he hasn't sold a bunch of PowerCubes quite yet.

     

    Perhaps we need a betting pool on who actually announces a model using the PbC first. Even with all the BMW testing, it still wouldn't shock me if an Asian manufacturer beat them! They do have some start-stop experience (not all good, but experience none the less.) Perhaps in a car will far fewer electronic bells and whistles than your average BMW.

     

    Who's setting the odds? :-)

     

    Any one else surprised we haven't heard we haven't heard Vani on a call yet?

     

    Perhaps his comments on that conference about NSC's plans put him in the penalty box for a while?

     

    I would like to see a new job or two posted in the marketing department though ...
    19 Aug 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Wouldn't that be something if BMW, after all the time spent testing and adding to Axions development, lost first mover status in implementation.

     

    As for Mr. Dantam not being included in the CC's. Doesn't surprise me at all. On the industrial side he could add little because most of his time would be spent saying I can't disclose that or that's up to the customer. Just like TG.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2620) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of Mr. Dantam -

     

    Not only is he in charge of sales and marketing, but he also has a very decorated technical education.

     

    He is also a co-author of the new white paper for the SAE conference. I am curious to hear more about how they are progressing on this commercial vehicle front.

     

    I think he will be a driving force behind publishing further articles to educate people on the potential of the PbC. Hopefully, they will prepare one on the interface of the PowerCube and the PJM.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    WTB: We'd want to go to "InPlay" to run that pool I think.

     

    http://inplay.com

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1770) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I think it was also telling in the comments (by Pic?) that they've had distributors and others with integration expertise coming in looking at the PowerCube for almost two years (long before we knew about Rosewater and the idea of a residential cube). So they've been getting ready for the residential market from before Dantam got there and have been designing the HUBs with a specific mindset on what the residential/high end users would want in their system.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, You're correct.

     

    And based on his prior background, I could see him running around with concept specifications long before formal conversations even occurred with Axion with a network of integrators trying to assess what the market might be interested in. You just know those gears have been turning in his head for some time given his longer term relationship with Axion as an investor.

     

    When you have his network assets you don't start with "If we build it they will come". And why not use the background of the integrators. They have experience with the competitors products and they know where the market is and where the gaps are.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9812) | Send Message
     
    Tonight, I looked into what an inflection point is. I wanted to read some lay-term mathematical explanation. I failed miserably.

     

    Sorry I posted this link:

     

    http://bit.ly/RsenLW
    19 Aug 2012, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I'm sure that info might make sense to some of our engineering pals here, but it sure sounded like double talk to me.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3361) | Send Message
     
    A good way to think of it is this: Inflection point is when the second derivative changes sign from positive to negative or vice versa...it's when you go from applying accelerator (acceleration) to applying brake (deceleration)... or vice versa... you still have positive velocity (first derivative) the whole time and so you're still eating up road the whole time, but there's a definite difference between accelerating and decelerating, and the inflection point is that moment when you go from one to the other...
    19 Aug 2012, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    this is a good explanation. and its testable. thanks 48.

     

    look for big volume accompanied by a shift in buy / sell. buy sell ratio is your pos/ neg
    19 Aug 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Maya: adding to 48's excellent description, think SMAs. They are second-order, IIUC. When the 10-day SMA, e.g., changes the direction it is moving, you may have reached an inflection point, in formal terms.

     

    In less formal terms, as it's commonly used in the market, it applies to the first-order, price. When you bounce off support and start heading up, fail moving past resistance and start moving down, ...

     

    As for my use, using JP's analogy of looking through the windshield, I use it to mean that I think we either have stopped doing what were doing, or are very near doing so, and will start doing something different.

     

    This fits with one of my major failings of being too early often.

     

    I guess I should use it in the more commonly-understood fashion if I want to communicate effectively.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    86,
    Thanks for the plain English explanation.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/P7vDQN

     

    i think we can use that as a start for the inflection equation. anyone intereseted? i'll try and look at it tonight/ monday
    19 Aug 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Don't let your eyes cross! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    ok so we want to look at a buy/sell slope using volume # as an independent variable. + slope is indicated by more buys than sells. - slope is indicated by more sells than buys. the inflection point is slope = to zero. we weigh buy sells with volume and find trend by summing up all data points approaching zero. wtf does that look like as an equation?
    19 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    You'll probably need to factor in a volume weighting factor over time to eliminate the lumpiness of day to day data, but if your math skills are good enough, you may come up with an entirely new metric to sell the quants and HFT guys. – The cockatoo oscillator as it were.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    MM,
    Ouch, I guess this is an attempt to come up with definite and finite answers to something that requires a certain amount of intuition and rational thought about investment variables. My personal opinion is that while everything may be put into mathematical terms, the human irrational factor trumps all.
    19 Aug 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    JP, yeah volume is a variable that multiplies the buy sell slope.
    19 Aug 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: Combine something starting like these two.

     

    { =(SUM(I2:I135 * J2:J135)) }

     

    { =(SUM(I2:I135 * K2:K135))*-1 }

     

    Column I = volume/1000, Column J=% buys, Column K=%sells in my spread sheets. This is on my graph input summary sheet. Raw volumes are also available for "buys", "sells" and "unknowns" on the individual days spread across one sheet for each month. It would take longer to set up than using my summary graph input sheets though.

     

    To get the braces in you must hit Ctrl-Shift-Enter on entering or editing the formula. This falls under the category of "array operations".

     

    Running these two separately on my data since February yields the values 18308.02 and -2659.98. I confirmed results with a simple multiply of volume for each row of "buys" and "sells" percentages, adding a * -1 to the sells side, and then summing the columns.

     

    Have I understood correctly what you wanted and provided a useful starting point?

     

    I've offered in the past to send my spreadsheets and data to any who might want them.

     

    Send me a PM on SA with your e-mail addy and what format you want - Excel 20xx, csv, etc. if you want to play with it. I could use some help from folks more educated than myself.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    John: Might be able to just smooth it with either SMAs or EMAs? Using a variation on the formulas I just posted, maybe using the moving averages of "% buys", calculating the equivalent "% sells" at that point, ...? With 10, 25, 50, 100 day averages available so far ...

     

    However, this sounds like we might be approaching the pretty standard MACD convergence/divergence of a standard chart.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    ok, so what is the inflection point we are talking about? the point at which enough shares fall into the hands of the right people to push stock prices higher. volume matters most, not sure buy/sell matters at all. another thing to consider is price volatility as it relates to volume, finally duration held seems important.

     

    think of it this way, a buyer is unlikely to buy at 30 cents and sell for the same price. the longer they hold the more likely they are to sell at 30 cents. the buyer has at least one sell point. that can be a sale at a loss or a sell at a gain or both or many sell points at many prices.

     

    in order for stock prices to slope upwards change in stock price = f(volume)>0
    the inflection point would be change in stock price = f(volume)=0

     

    that seems simple enough, but all it really suggests is that the steel wall at 30 cents with huge volume could be the inflection point. it does not suggest an upward or downward future for stock prices, although this is where my intuition tells me to pay attention to buy versus sell ratio.

     

    the part that would be useful is to define f >.<

     

    just brainstorming: f should include time so that as time held increases buy or sell action more likely. price volatility should correlate with more volume but i am not sure that means shares end up in the right hands.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    "ok, so what is the inflection point we are talking about? the point at which enough shares fall into the hands of the right people to push stock prices higher".

     

    For me, it's the inverse - when enough shares fall *out* of the hands of the "wrong" people so that they stop suppressing prices.

     

    This based on the assumption that there is a "natural" correct price which would be discovered if, as John has noted, the supply and demand imbalance is addressed. Our current, and past, situation has been a big supply imbalance. I prefer to view it this way because there should always be shares flowing into and out of various (types) of hands in a "healthy" market for the stock. So, it's not about, IMO, flowing into the "right hands" ATM, but no longer being in the "wrong hands". This is, of course, a shorter-term view.

     

    Longer term, the "right hands" comes more strongly into play, I think, fitting John's description of the supply and demand imbalance flipping to favor the long-term holders he denoted as "strong hands".

     

    So for now, and for me, the inflection point I've been trying to see coming is when the bigger sellers are either out of shares or out of the market (for at least a while). Concomitant with that I've been alert to things that might suggest strong(er) buying support and/or weak(ening) selling pressure on my experimental charts. This all not so much for "when am I going to make money", but very much for "is this a good time and price to add or enter". Shorter-form: is the risk of substantial loss low. Another way might be: is there a good chance I can get a substantially lower price or not?

     

    "volume matters most, not sure buy/sell matters at all. another thing to consider is price volatility as it relates to volume, finally duration held seems important."

     

    As we've seen recently, in our situation volume has apparently not mattered most. We've had, for a long time, generally improving volume, as John has detailed, and price does not respond, either up or down, as one might expect. Where volume matters most is as "the truth teller" - it is the key metric to *confirm* the strength, or lack thereof, of any move, IIUC. It also often serves to denote (or give advance warning of) the *possible* end of a trend when it "spikes". This last is what caused me to suggest that our "consolidation" might be ending a few days back and we were at or near an inflection point (my use of it, not the formal use).

     

    From my POV, buy:sell *may* have value in that it suggests sentiment, *especially* in the presence of good volume. It doesn't matter most, but it offers, I *think*, insight that is not available, short-term, from more traditional indicators. It's one of the things I looked at that made me feel my adds at $0.30 and $0.031 recently were a good risk. In spite of identifiable selling pressure, volume at various times suggesting price should have been dropping and price unable to rise, the buy:sell ratio, improvements in average trade size and the prices at which the buying occurred offered a *possible* glimpse at underlying sentiment, which seemed (stealth) bullish to me.

     

    But all this stuff is experimental and I can't argue in a definitive fashion that it matters - some, a lot or none. I'm trying to discover if some of these non-traditional things might have value.

     

    "it does not suggest an upward or downward future for stock prices, although this is where my intuition tells me to pay attention to buy versus sell ratio".

     

    That's the same way I was using "inflection" - there is a change coming (or here) but that doesn't suggest direction.

     

    Right now I'm thinking buy:sell might be a good leading indicator, especially since I added the averages to my experimental charts recently, regardless of volume. This based on an understanding from my reading thus far that volume is a confirmation metric, not a leading metric.

     

    And for *that* reason, I hold hope that buy:sell or average trade size or ... some combination of things on my experimental charts *might* offer an edge if they (or combinitions of "they") can be identified. Then as time and accumulation permits, there might be enough data to conduct at least a half-a$$ed back-test to see if they have good correlation or not.

     

    "just brainstorming: f should include time so that as time held increases buy or sell action more likely."

     

    I'd be worried about trying to get *too* granular, for *my* level of knowledge there. If I read your meaning correctly, that suggests an addition of a "macro" factor that adds in a statistically predictive function - dependent on values we can't easily obtain or model with high confidence?

     

    That seems as if it may introduce a potential weakness: trying to aggregate, in advance, what will end up being "millions of individual decisions" shaped by combinations of circumstances in the future? ISTM the further out our "t", the less confidence we could have in what it predicts. And if "t" is too short, does it add value?

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    chewing on this 4 awhile.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Correction: "feel my adds at $0.30 and $0.031 recently"

     

    s/b

     

    "feel my adds at $0.30 and $0.301 recently"

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Looks like you've spent too much time at a gas station when you start talking in 1/10th of a penny. :-)
    19 Aug 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    SD: You got that right. If i ws in this market I'd be haggling of 1/100ths of a penny. Don't want to be wasteful!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2012, 04:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    ((volume/(change in price to the nearest whole cent*100)+#days at same nearest whole cent price)) - share price = y

     

    y>0 equals positive momentum, y<0 negative momentum. special attention paid to flip from positive to negative, negative to positive or if we get it y=0 as that could be the inflection point.

     

    still needs some work, like maybe # of days at price has negative or positive value depending on last whole cent change in price being positive or negative...
    20 Aug 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    sure it is. for me its fun to think about but also something we can plug numbers into and see if anything useful gets spit out.
    20 Aug 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1052) | Send Message
     
    if we could come up with a way to differentiate volume #s so that we could add them to strong hands, we'd find our inflection point at 51% strong hands.

     

    i think the easiest volume days to add are days where their is a narrow trading range that is similar to day previous and day after. june's 35 cent wall and the 30 cent wall 3 days previous are examples.

     

    in other words trades around resistance or support levels have more significance.
    20 Aug 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: "a way to differentiate volume #s so that we could add them to strong hands"

     

    maybe by implication? The intra-day VWAP will wander between closer to the low or closer to the high of the day, usually. Maybe an allocation, in combination with a confirmation (buy %?) or something like that. Average trade size is another possibility.

     

    My spread sheets already track all that stuff so I can make the charts I post. Even "buy" $ and "sell" $.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Aug 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • snowbirdac11
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    I am an Axionistas/lurker, an electrical engineer. I climbed the wall of worry last year. Therefore, I have an axpw over weight IRA accounts for myself and for my children's ROTH IRA accounts.

     

    I did not plan on buying more shares. However, the latest cc news are so compelling in my mind, I ended up buying more shares for myself and my sister. (After three years of testing by BMW, AXPW, NS and Penn State, I am totally convinced that we have a proven product. Soon or later, all the Big five auto engineers will be the ones telling their boss that they need axpw battery in order for their Start/Stop system to function properly.)

     

    I concur the Axionistas is probably neutral/even.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    Snowbird, Welcome. You're the first engineer here. Obvious humor!

     

    I fully agree with your "Where there's smoke there's fire" point. Just too much long term testing and relationships to ignore that it will work and there's a need for the technology. For me the risk lies not in crop failure but personal yield given they still need money to nurture and harvest the crop.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30030) | Send Message
     
    I'm much happier with management's plan to go for strategic funding next time around. The technology is far enough advanced that it's a real possibility now and the great part of strategic investors is they don't typically turn into sellers unless things go very badly.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17751) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Don't forget SiliconHillBilly! Maybe Rick or DRich also? I'm unsure.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9293) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I see a pretty heavy weighting of technical people here be they formally or pretty heavily self taught out of interest. Just one aspect of a very intellectually well healed group which helps us all immeasurable with our Axion understanding / investment decision.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4543) | Send Message