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Bo Peng
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I run a fund based on automated trading and technical analysis. But my favorite pastime is thinking and talking about political economy. I guess I'm George Soros. Writing helps clarifying my thinking. All opinion expressed here is mine, wholly mine, nobody's but mine. And all trading/investment... More
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  • No Iranian War 2 comments
    Dec 11, 2011 3:48 PM

    The recent capture of super-secretive RQ-170 drone by Iran likely means the world can rest assured there won't be an Iranian War for quite awhile.

    Bloomberg has a very good analysis of how the drone was likely captured, as opposed to "landing on its own free will." Being more secretive than Top Secret and with its very existence denied until a photo surfaced recently, the drone has multiple fail-back mechanisms in case of lost communication and/or control, which includes returning to base, holding pattern, and lastly self-destruct. As shown by the Iranians, the drone is certainly not shot down, nor did it have a hard-landing, assuming what was shown is the real thing, confirmed as "appears to be" the case by "three US defense officials." It is extremely unlikely that all the fail-back mechanisms failed in the same mission, short of an extrme case of Murphy's Law.

    What does this mean? Somebody has intercepted and decoded the communication between the drone and satellite, blocked it, sent their own control signal to the drone, and took over the cool RC toy. This is highly sophisticated stuff, so sophisticated that nobody would've believed before the story that anybody on Planet Earth, circa 2011 AD, is capable of doing.

    What does this mean? Satellite communication is one of the critical pillars of US military infrastructure. If its reliability and information security cannot be trusted beyond any reasonable doubt, then the US would be at a potentially disastrous strategic and tactical disadvantage against a competent enemy. The implication is that the US may find it necessary to rethink and rework its entire military infrastructure and strategic as well as tactical handbook. We're talking about decades and trillions of dollars. Military strategists have been thinking and/or worrying about for decades a disruptive technology that can subvert US military supremacy as the Dreadnought did to the earlier era of naval warfare. Could this be it?

    This overshadows the damage of any potential leak of technology carried in that drone, according to my calculation, by about 3,547,912.5821 times.

    So, there's no Iranian War, at least not before the US can be sure that that drone was not actively captured.

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  • change is the only constant
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
    It looks like its on the showroom floor. It definitely had not been SHOT down. Thing had malfunction written all over it.
    12 Dec 2011, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
    Bo, I reached the same conclusion about 10 minutes after I saw the news item. This could compromise all communication between tanks, submarines, aircraft carriers and planes as well as individual foot solders.


    This will not end well.
    12 Dec 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
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