svosavvy's  Instablog

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Layperson, average joe, serious more than a hobbyist investor in search of "quality". i find investing/swing trades an enjoyable mental exercise. "Self Taught?" NO FORMAL FINANCIAL EDUCATION, just lots and lots of reading and kicking over rocks to see what's underneath. My... More
  • spwra 0 comments
    Nov 25, 2009 4:51 PM | about stocks: SPWR

    Hi, this is the first time I have used this instablog feature, so, I'm bound to screw it up somehow LOL.  I have initiated a leap put sale position (bullish) on sunpower A-stock with the intention of adding to it if share price continues to decline as it may as evidenced by the ever growing short interest.  With very little information to go on and a follow up of their preliminary report of accounting irregularities not due for another almost 4 weeks, the key drivers imho the next few weeks will be fear/greed/speculation.  To start with SPWRA has been on my stock watch list for a long time now, almost like a girl at a dance I never got around asking to cut a rug with.  I love the solar sector as a means of furthering humanity, but, not as an investment.  Most of the humanity furthering businesses tend to be bad investments kinda like cars and planes imho.  Anyway the reason I chose the leap put sale instead of just buying the stock is that right now I have made a decision to mostly hold dividend achievers in my accounts and options on and around my favorite growers.  It is my sincere belief unfortunately that we will be experiencing a period of slow to no growth, How can you be rewarded by growth led share appreciation if few are really growing.  I chose to sell the put instead of buying the call mostly because my play here is speculation,  there is little info available and most of what I have to go on is gut feeling coupled with shooting from the hip.  If my speculation is incorrect there is still a chance for me to profit some by being less right.  The leap put is well out of the money to the downside offering initial defensive protection as the share price must fall excessively to become in the money and thus exercisable, I have an exceptionally long time horizon and I deal in cash not margin (in other words I have the cash for my ploys in my margin account).  I also do this for a fun hobby not for a living.  From what I can gather through a press release dated 11/16 from preliminary naughtyness comes in at overstate 1 mil for 3/09, understate 14 mil for 6/09, understate 2 mil 9/09.  I then added these up 14-1+2=15 divided this against operating income -2.5 mil 3/09 + 9.9 mil 6/09 + 34.6 mil 9/09.   =42 mil which represents 71 cents eps which equals 1.69 cents eps/million.  Multiply by our previously given prelimnary number 15 this equals a 25 cent eps penalty for the three quarters IMH(uneducated)O.  they are projected to earn 48 cents in the 4th for a grand total of 1.20 on the year people have been paying around $27.5/share eyeball average for these numbers about a 23 multiple.  1.20-.25=.95, 95 cents times 23=$21.85/share.  Anyway I really prescribe to George Soros's idea that 99% of the time things are mispriced, however, if I was forced to buy I would say 21.85 is a buy if the preliminary report holds water which the voluntary nature of this kinda says to me these guys are trying to get in front of this, also this doesn't hold any water if people decide to discount punish their p/e over this.  There is a basketfull of unknowns/perils in this one, another is there is a list of lawyers longer than the macy's thanksgiving day parade lining up for CAL's.  Anyway these are the ramblings of an uneducated layperson hobbyist novice.  Do not consider this professional advice, for entertainment purposes only:)  So anyway real negative surprises could be further accounting brainfarts, p/e premium punishment from this disappointment, and lawyers.  Positive surprises could be not as bad irregularities (overstated initial damage report), and overpunishment from sellers.   LONG SPWRA, 

    Stocks: SPWR
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