jsIRA's  Instablog

Monthly Review

The US stock market finished flat for the month of November. Nasdaq did the best. It closed at 3,010.24, up +1.10%; S&P 500 was up 4.02 points or +0.28%; DJI finished lower for the month. It lost 70.88 points or -0.54% and closed at 13,025.58.

There was an after-election market mini-crush and followed by a strong buy-on-dip. The timing for the market rebound is perfect as shown in the S&P 500 weekly chart below:

It bounced back at exactly the bottom of its uptrend channel. November 16, 2012 low will be served as the near term low and the four year bull run, which started in March 2009, will continue. We will certainly see new highs in coming months.

Our Portfolios and Play did well in November. $5K Portfolio gained +9.58%; Core Portfolio went up +4.60% for the month and our Short Term Play returned +18.77% for the last four weeks (It gained +14.94% for November).

Our prediction for December: We believe that December will be another flat month with one more up/down swing. But the volatility will be much smaller. Technically all major indexes are short term overbought and may see pull backs this week.

January Rally

The January rally may have already started ahead of time. Many small cap stocks run up huge since November 16 market bottom. Some of them are listed in the table below, Their runs all occurred in less than two weeks:

Please be noted that all the above stocks were hit very hard before their runs started. Many are our picks such as PPHM, STSI, GRPN, OCLR, THQI, OCZ, MCP.

Small cap runs has just started and more will follow. This is the time we should put our money to work for us.

$5K Portfolio

Our Portfolio gained +9.58% last month and up +361.61% since its inception June 2009. Our original goal is to make 70% compounded return and grow the money from $5,000 to $41,000 in four years. That provided to be a difficult goal for us. It did have made more than 70% return during its first year existence and almost reached our goal for the first two years of runs. But we only managed to make 13% gain in our third year. The reason: we was caught by Wall Street's eye and they tracked our trading strategy (they actually subscribed into our service ) and made attacks on us. Wall Street does not want anyone to beat the market in the long term run.

Therefore we changed our trading strategy again since June this year. It worked well and our Portfolio gained +35.24% since June and S&P 500 gained only +8.08% in the same period. The following table summarized our yearly performance via the performance from S&P 500 since June 2009:

(click to enlarge)

We have seven months to go for its forth year run. It is very difficult to double the money in 7 months. But we will try.